ManpowerGroup Inc (MAN) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to ManpowerGroup Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded. If you care to drop off now, please do so. I would like now to turn the conference over to ManpowerGroup Chairman and CEO, Mr. Jonas Prising. Sir, you may begin.

歡迎參加萬寶盛華集團 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）此通話正在錄音。如果您現在想下車，請這樣做。我現在將會議交給萬寶盛華集團董事長兼執行長 Jonas Prising 先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Welcome, and thank you for joining us for our Fourth Quarter 2023 Conference Call. Our Chief Financial Officer, Jack McGinnis, is with me today. For your convenience, we have included our prepared remarks within the Investor Relations section of our website at manpowergroup.com. I will start by going through some of the highlights of the quarter and the full year, and Jack will go through the fourth quarter results and guidance for the first quarter of 2024. I will then share some concluding thoughts before we start our Q&A session. Jack will now cover the safe harbor language.

歡迎並感謝您參加我們的 2023 年第四季電話會議。我們的財務長傑克麥金尼斯今天和我在一起。為了您的方便，我們已將準備好的評論納入我們網站 manpowergroup.com 的投資者關係部分。我將首先介紹本季和全年的一些亮點，傑克將介紹第四季度的業績和 2024 年第一季的指導。然後，在我們開始問答環節之前，我將分享一些結論性想法。傑克現在將介紹安全港語言。

Good morning, everyone. This conference call includes forward-looking statements, including statements concerning economic and geopolitical uncertainty, which are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties. These statements are based on management's current expectations or beliefs. Actual results might differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. We assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. Slide 2 of our earnings release presentation further identifies forward-looking statements made in this call and factors that may cause our actual results to differ materially and information regarding reconciliation of non-GAAP measures.

大家，早安。本次電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，包括有關經濟和地緣政治不確定性的陳述，這些陳述受到已知和未知的風險和不確定性的影響。這些陳述是基於管理層目前的期望或信念。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中的預測有重大差異。我們不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。我們的收益發布簡報的投影片 2 進一步確定了本次電話會議中所做的前瞻性陳述以及可能導致我們的實際結果出現重大差異的因素以及有關非公認會計準則措施調節的資訊。

Thank you, Jack. 2 weeks ago, I attended the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Devils, Switzerland. The themes from the meeting centered on the uncertain outlook for 2024 caused by increasing geopolitical tensions and slowing economic growth in many parts of the world. At the same time, AI was a major discussion topic with many believing we are entering a new era of accelerated digital transformation with developments in AI holding the promise of accelerating productivity and growth. Most organizations are just at the beginning of their AI journey. They are committed to responsible adoption of AI throughout their enterprise.

謝謝你，傑克。兩週前，我參加了在瑞士德維爾斯舉行的世界經濟論壇年會。會議主題集中在地緣政治緊張局勢加劇和世界許多地區經濟成長放緩導致的 2024 年前景不確定。同時，人工智慧成為了一個主要討論主題，許多人相信我們正在進入一個加速數位轉型的新時代，而人工智慧的發展有望加速生產力和成長。大多數組織的人工智慧之旅才剛開始。他們致力於在整個企業中負責任地採用人工智慧。

Yet they know they need data quality and infrastructure along with the skilled workforce to truly maximize its impact. Our own recent data finds 58% of employers believe AI will have a positive impact on their organization's head count in the next 2 years. And more than 70% site training staff finding qualified talent and redefining roles as the top challenges to fully leverage the technology. We are committed to being a partner of choice for company and people to navigate the significant transformation where the digital transition will require a skills transition at speed and scale.

然而他們知道，他們需要數據品質和基礎設施以及熟練的勞動力，才能真正最大限度地發揮其影響力。我們最近的數據發現，58% 的雇主認為人工智慧將在未來 2 年內對其組織的員工人數產生正面影響。超過 70% 的現場培訓人員將尋找合格人才並重新定義角色作為充分利用該技術的首要挑戰。我們致力於成為公司和個人的首選合作夥伴，以應對重大轉型，其中數位化轉型需要快速和大規模的技能轉型。

Looking at our real-time data and research and following discussions with our teams around the world during our annual strategic road shows, it is clear the outlook we have been predicting and tracking for the last few quarters continues to play out. Employers, particularly in large enterprise organizations remain cautious pausing on noncritical investments and postponing projects until more clarity on the outlook emerges.

看看我們的即時數據和研究，並在年度戰略路演期間與世界各地的團隊進行討論，很明顯，我們過去幾個季度預測和追蹤的前景仍在繼續發揮作用。雇主，特別是大型企業組織的雇主仍保持謹慎態度，暫停非關鍵投資並推遲項目，直到前景更加明朗為止。

Our industry is always the first to feel the impact of economic softening, and this cycle is no different. As we have seen employers reduce their temporary and permanent hiring while lowering their project spend appetite. This is most noticeable in Europe and in North America, and we haven't seen any inflection point yet of improving demand for our services and solutions in those regions. It is important to note that at the same time, we have seen signs of stabilization of activity at lower levels in certain markets and offerings.

我們的產業總是最先感受到經濟疲軟的影響，這次週期也不例外。正如我們所看到的，雇主減少了臨時和長期招聘，同時降低了專案支出意願。這在歐洲和北美最為明顯，而且我們還沒有看到這些地區對我們的服務和解決方案的需求改善的轉折點。值得注意的是，同時，我們看到某些市場和產品的活動穩定在較低水準的跡象。

We have taken significant cost reduction actions to adjust our resources to the current environment in many markets while maintaining the talent we need to take advantage of the market turnaround when it happens. We are confident in our ability to navigate this kind of environment and ensure that we are well positioned for profitable growth when demand improves.

我們採取了重大成本削減措施，調整我們的資源以適應許多市場的當前環境，同時保留我們所需的人才，以便在市場轉變發生時利用它。我們對應對這種環境的能力充滿信心，並確保在需求改善時能夠實現獲利成長。

Turning to our financial results. In the fourth quarter, revenue was $4.6 billion, down 5% year-over-year in constant currency. Our reported EBITDA for the quarter was $24 million. Adjusting for restructuring costs, noncash impairment charges and other special items, which we'll cover in the financial review, EBITDA was $116 million representing a decrease of 30% in constant currency year-over-year.

轉向我們的財務表現。第四季營收為 46 億美元，以固定匯率計算年減 5%。我們報告的本季 EBITDA 為 2400 萬美元。調整重組成本、非現金減損費用和其他特殊項目（我們將在財務審查中討論），EBITDA 為 1.16 億美元，以固定匯率計算年減 30%。

Reported EBITDA margin was 0.5% and adjusted EBITA margin was 2.5%. Losses per diluted share was $1.73 on a reported basis, while earnings per diluted share was $1.45 on an adjusted basis. Adjusted earnings per share decreased 30% year-over-year in constant currency. In the fourth quarter, staff and gross profit margins remained resilient in a challenging environment.

報告的 EBITDA 利潤率為 0.5%，調整後的 EBITA 利潤率為 2.5%。報告基礎上攤薄後每股虧損為 1.73 美元，調整後稀釋後每股收益為 1.45 美元。以固定匯率計算，調整後每股盈餘較去年同期下降 30%。第四季度，員工和毛利率在充滿挑戰的環境中仍然保持彈性。

From a geographic perspective, we saw the continuation of a challenging environment in North America and Europe during the quarter, while demand for our services in LatAm and APME remained solid. Turning to the full year results for a few moments. Reported earnings per share for the year was $1.76 as adjusted, earnings per share was $6.04 and represented a constant currency decrease of 28%.

從地理角度來看，本季北美和歐洲仍面臨充滿挑戰的環境，而拉丁美洲和 APME 的服務需求仍然強勁。暫時轉向全年業績。調整後的本年度報告每股收益為 1.76 美元，每股收益為 6.04 美元，以固定匯率計算下降 28%。

Revenues for the year decreased 4% in constant currency to $18.9 billion, and reported EBITDA was $346 million. As adjusted, EBITDA was $497 million, which represented a 27% constant currency decrease year-over-year. Although no one can predict when conditions will improve, be certain that a skilled and agile workforce remains at the heart of an organization's ability to adapt and grow as they execute their business strategy.

以固定匯率計算，本年度營收下降 4%，至 189 億美元，報告的 EBITDA 為 3.46 億美元。調整後的 EBITDA 為 4.97 億美元，以固定匯率計算年減 27%。儘管沒有人能夠預測情況何時會有所改善，但可以肯定的是，一支熟練且敏捷的員工隊伍仍然是組織在執行業務策略時適應和發展能力的核心。

Companies also remember the difficulties they experience trying to hire post endemic, as they know they are not immune to demographic challenges presented by aging populations and persistent talent shortages. We are focused on helping them overcome these obstacles by finding the best talent in the market today and into the future. I will now turn it over to Jack to take you through the results in more detail.

公司還記得他們在流行病後試圖招聘時遇到的困難，因為他們知道自己無法免受人口老化和持續人才短缺帶來的人口挑戰的影響。我們致力於透過尋找當今和未來市場上最優秀的人才來幫助他們克服這些障礙。我現在將把它交給傑克，讓您更詳細地了解結果。

Thanks, Jonas. Going back to the quarterly results on Slide 3. Revenues in the fourth quarter came in slightly above the midpoint of our constant currency guidance range. Gross profit margin came in at the high end of our guidance range. As adjusted, EBITDA was $116 million, representing a 30% decrease in constant currency compared to the prior year period. As adjusted, EBITDA margin was 2.5% and came in at the high end of our guidance range, representing 100 basis points of decline year-over-year.

謝謝，喬納斯。回到投影片 3 的季度業績。第四季的營收略高於我們的固定匯率指引範圍的中點。毛利率處於我們指導範圍的高端。調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.16 億美元，以固定匯率計算，較上年同期下降 30%。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 2.5%，處於我們指導範圍的高端，比去年同期下降 100 個基點。

During the quarter, year-over-year foreign currency movements had an impact on our results. Foreign currency translation drove a 1% favorable impact to the U.S. dollar reported revenue trend compared to the constant currency decrease of 5%. Organic days adjusted constant currency revenue also decreased 5% in the quarter.

本季度，年比外匯變動對我們的業績產生了影響。與固定匯率下降 5% 相比，外幣換算對美元報告的收入趨勢產生了 1% 的有利影響。本季調整後的有機天數固定貨幣收入也下降了 5%。

Turning to the EPS bridge on Slide 5. Reported losses per share was $1.73, which included $3.18 related to restructuring costs, a noncash goodwill impairment charge and other items. Excluding these costs, adjusted EPS was $1.45. Walking from our guidance midpoint, our results included a stronger operational performance of $0.10, slightly lower weighted average shares due to share repurchases in the quarter, which had a positive impact of $0.01, a foreign currency impact that was $0.01 better than our guidance due to the strengthening of the euro and the pound during the quarter and other expenses had a positive $0.11 impact.

轉向投影片 5 上的 EPS 橋樑。報告的每股虧損為 1.73 美元，其中包括與重組成本、非現金商譽減損費用和其他項目相關的 3.18 美元。排除這些成本，調整後每股收益為 1.45 美元。從我們的指導中點開始，我們的業績包括0.10 美元的更強勁的營運業績，由於本季度的股票回購，加權平均股票略有下降，這產生了0.01 美元的正面影響，外幣影響比我們的指導好0.01 美元，因為本季歐元和英鎊的走強以及其他費用產生了 0.11 美元的正面影響。

Next, let's review our revenue by business line. Year-over-year, on an organic constant currency basis, the Manpower brand declined by 3% in the quarter. The Experis brand declined by 11%, and the Talent Solutions brand had a revenue decline of 14%. Within Talent Solutions, our RPO business experienced a year-over-year revenue decline in line with the trend from the third quarter. Our MSP business also experienced revenue declines in the quarter as we continue to reduce certain lower margin activity while Right Management experienced year-over-year revenue growth on higher outplacement volumes in the quarter.

接下來，我們按業務線回顧我們的收入。以有機固定匯率計算，萬寶盛華品牌本季年減了 3%。 Experis 品牌下降 11%，Talent Solutions 品牌營收下降 14%。在人才解決方案中，我們的 RPO 業務收入年減，與第三季的趨勢一致。由於我們繼續減少某些利潤率較低的活動，我們的 MSP 業務在本季度也經歷了收入下降，而 Right Management 在本季度因就業量增加而實現了收入同比增長。

Looking at our gross profit margin in detail. Our gross margin came in at 17.5% for the quarter. Staffing margin contributed 10 basis point reduction due to mix shifts as margins remained strong. Permanent recruitment, including Talent Solutions RPO, contributed a 60 basis point GP margin reduction as permanent hiring activity in the fourth quarter remained stable at lower levels, consistent with the third quarter trends.

詳細看看我們的毛利率。本季我們的毛利率為 17.5%。由於利潤率依然強勁，人員配置利潤率因組合轉變而下降了 10 個基點。包括人才解決方案 RPO 在內的永久招聘導致 GP 利潤率下降 60 個基點，因為第四季度的永久招聘活動保持穩定在較低水平，與第三季度的趨勢一致。

Right Management career transition within Talent Solutions contributed 20 basis points of improvement as outplacement activity continued to be solid in the fourth quarter. Other items resulted in a 20 basis point margin decrease. Moving on to our gross profit by business line. During the quarter, the Manpower brand comprised 60% of gross profit.

由於第四季度的再就業活動持續保持穩健，人才解決方案內的正確管理職涯轉型貢獻了 20 個基點的改進。其他項目導致利潤率下降 20 個基點。繼續按業務線劃分的毛利。本季度，Manpower 品牌佔毛利潤的 60%。

Our Experis Professional business comprised 24% and Talent Solutions comprised 16%. During the quarter, our consolidated gross profit decreased by 8% on an organic constant currency basis year-over-year, representing a slight improvement from the 9% decline in the third quarter. Our Manpower brand reported an organic gross profit decrease of 4% in constant currency year-over-year, representing a slight improvement from the 5% decline in the third quarter.

我們的 Experis Professional 業務佔 24%，Talent Solutions 業務佔 16%。本季度，我們的綜合毛利以有機固定匯率計算年減 8%，較第三季 9% 的下降略有改善。我們的 Manpower 品牌報告稱，以固定匯率計算，有機毛利潤年減 4%，較第三季 5% 的下降略有改善。

Gross profit in our Experis brand decreased 15% in organic constant currency year-over-year, representing a slight additional decline from the 14% decrease in the third quarter, driven by Continental Europe. Gross profit in Talent Solutions decreased 14% in organic constant currency year-over-year, representing a slight improvement from the 15% decline in the third quarter.

以有機固定匯率計算，Experis 品牌的毛利年減 15%，較第三季 14% 的下降幅度略有增加，這是由歐洲大陸推動的。 Talent Solutions 的毛利以有機固定匯率計算年減 14%，較第三季 15% 的下降略有改善。

The year-over-year decreases in RPO and MSP were partially offset by Right Management and increased outplacement activity. Reported SG&A expense in the quarter was $850 million. Excluding restructuring costs, goodwill impairment and other items, SG&A was 4% lower year-over-year on a constant currency basis, representing a sequential improvement from the 2% decline in the third quarter on the same basis.

RPO 和 MSP 的同比下降被正確的管理和再就業活動的增加部分抵消。本季報告的 SG&A 費用為 8.5 億美元。不計重組成本、商譽減損和其他項目，以固定匯率計算，SG&A 年減 4%，較第三季以固定匯率計算的 2% 降幅有所改善。

This reflects additional cost actions resulting in organic headcount reduction of 3% in the quarter and a year-over-year organic reduction at year-end of 9%. At the same time, our corporate expense reflects our progression of the next phase of our digitization strategy focused on back-office functions. These strategic investments are expected to drive medium- and long-term productivity and efficiency enhancements across our technology and finance functions worldwide through shared service centers leveraging leading global technology platforms.

這反映出額外的成本行動導致本季有機員工人數減少 3%，年底有機員工人數較去年同期減少 9%。同時，我們的公司費用反映了我們下一階段專注於後台職能的數位化策略的進展。這些策略投資預計將透過利用全球領先技術平台的共享服務中心，推動我們全球技術和財務職能部門的中長期生產力和效率提升。

The underlying SG&A decreases largely consisted of operational cost of $24 million, offset by currency changes of $11 million. Adjusted SG&A expenses as a percentage of revenue represented 15.2% in constant currency in the fourth quarter. Restructuring costs and other items totaled $92 million, with the largest component related to the wind down of our Proservia business in Germany.

基本的 SG&A 減少主要包括 2,400 萬美元的營運成本，被 1,100 萬美元的貨幣變動所抵銷。以固定匯率計算，第四季調整後的 SG&A 費用佔營收的百分比為 15.2%。重組成本和其他項目總計 9,200 萬美元，其中最大的部分與我們德國 Proservia 業務的關閉有關。

The goodwill impairment relates to our Netherlands business, which experienced further market declines in recent quarters. The Americas segment comprised 23% of consolidated revenue. Revenue in the quarter was $1.1 billion, representing a decrease of 4% compared to the prior year period on a constant currency basis.

商譽減損與我們的荷蘭業務有關，該業務在最近幾季經歷了進一步的市場下滑。美洲業務佔合併收入的 23%。該季度營收為 11 億美元，以固定匯率計算比去年同期下降 4%。

As adjusted, OUP was $40 million and OUP margin was 3.7%. The U.S. is the largest country in the Americas segment, comprising 65% of segment revenues. Revenue in the U.S. was $702 million during the quarter, representing a 14% days adjusted decrease compared to the prior year. As adjusted to exclude restructuring costs, OUP for our U.S. business was $21 million in the quarter, representing a decrease of 54%. As adjusted, OUP margin was 3%. Within the U.S., the Manpower brand comprised 25% of gross profit during the quarter. Revenue for the Manpower brand in the U.S. decreased 16% on a days adjusted basis during the quarter, which was a stable trend from a 16% decrease in the third quarter on the same basis.

調整後，OUP 為 4000 萬美元，OUP 利潤率為 3.7%。美國是美洲細分市場中最大的國家，佔該細分市場收入的 65%。該季度美國地區的營收為 7.02 億美元，調整後天數比去年同期下降 14%。排除重組成本後，本季我們美國業務的 OUP 為 2,100 萬美元，下降 54%。調整後，OUP 利潤率為 3%。在美國，萬寶盛華品牌佔本季毛利的 25%。美國萬寶盛華品牌的營收在本季以天數調整後下降了 16%，與第三季以天數下降 16% 相比，趨勢保持穩定。

The Experis brand in the U.S. comprised 45% of gross profit in the quarter. Within Experis in the U.S., IT skills comprise approximately 90% of revenues. On a days adjusted basis, Experis U.S. revenue decreased 13% during the quarter a slight improvement from the 15% decline on the same basis in the third quarter.

美國的 Experis 品牌佔本季毛利的 45%。在美國的 Experis 中，IT 技能約佔收入的 90%。以調整天數計算，Experis 美國本季營收下降 13%，較第三季 15% 的降幅略有改善。

Talent Solutions in the U.S. contributed 30% of gross profit and experienced a revenue decline of 14% in the quarter. This was an improvement from the 18% decline in the third quarter. RPO revenue declines in the U.S. reflect ongoing lower levels of permanent hiring programs in the fourth quarter. U.S. MSP business saw revenue declines as we continue to reduce some lower-margin activity, while outplacement activity within our Right Management business drove strong revenue increases.

美國的 Talent Solutions 貢獻了 30% 的毛利，但本季營收下降了 14%。這比第三季 18% 的下降有所改善。美國 RPO 收入下降反映了第四季度長期招聘計劃水準的持續下降。由於我們繼續減少一些利潤較低的活動，美國 MSP 業務的收入出現下降，而我們的右管理業務中的再就業活動推動了收入的強勁增長。

In the U.S., RPO and MSP experienced an improved sequential rate of decline. Right Management in the U.S. experienced a stable level of revenues sequentially from the third quarter. In the first quarter of 2024, we expect a smaller year-over-year revenue decline for our U.S. business overall as compared to the fourth quarter decline in the U.S. as we begin to anniversary the more significant pullback in demand in the year ago period.

在美國，RPO 和 MSP 的環比下降率有所改善。從第三季開始，美國 Right Management 的營收連續保持穩定水準。 2024 年第一季度，隨著我們開始慶祝去年同期需求大幅下滑，我們預期美國業務整體營收年減幅將小於第四季的降幅。

Southern Europe revenue comprised 46% of consolidated revenue in the quarter. Revenue in Southern Europe was $2.1 billion, representing a 4% decrease in constant currency. As adjusted, OUP for our Southern Europe business was $94 million in the quarter and OUP margin was 4.5%.

南歐收入佔本季合併收入的 46%。南歐營收為 21 億美元，以固定匯率計算下降 4%。調整後，本季南歐業務的 OUP 為 9,400 萬美元，OUP 利潤率為 4.5%。

France revenue comprised 57% of the Southern Europe segment in the quarter and decreased 4% in days adjusted constant currency. As adjusted, OUP for our France business was $48 million in the quarter, representing a decrease of 24%. As adjusted, OUP margin was 3.9%. The business in France experienced an additional softening of revenues during the fourth quarter.

本季法國營收佔南歐市場的 57%，以天數調整後的固定匯率計算下降 4%。調整後，本季法國業務的 OUP 為 4,800 萬美元，下降 24%。調整後，OUP 利潤率為 3.9%。法國業務第四季的營收進一步疲軟。

Activity to date in January 2024 indicates a slight further decrease. We are estimating the year-over-year constant currency revenue trend in the first quarter for France to be down slightly from the fourth quarter trend based on January activity trends. Revenue in Italy equaled $450 million in the quarter, reflecting a decrease of 3% on a days adjusted constant currency basis. As adjusted, OUP equaled $32 million and OUP margin was 7.8%.

2024 年 1 月迄今的活動顯示略有進一步下降。根據一月份的活動趨勢，我們估計法國第一季的同比恆定貨幣收入趨勢將比第四季的趨勢略有下降。本季義大利的營收為 4.5 億美元，以天數調整後的固定匯率計算下降了 3%。調整後，OUP 為 3,200 萬美元，OUP 利潤率為 7.8%。

We estimate that Italy will also have a slightly lower constant currency year-over-year revenue trend in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter. Our Northern Europe segment comprised 19% of consolidated revenue in the quarter. Revenue of $914 million represented a 10% decline in constant currency. After excluding restructuring costs and the goodwill impairment of our Netherlands business, adjusted OUP was $4 million and OUP margin was 0.4%.

我們估計，與第四季相比，義大利第一季的固定匯率年收入趨勢也將略有下降。我們的北歐業務佔本季合併收入的 19%。以固定匯率計算，營收為 9.14 億美元，下降 10%。排除重組成本和荷蘭業務的商譽減損後，調整後的 OUP 為 400 萬美元，OUP 利潤率為 0.4%。

The largest component of our restructuring charges in the region are driven by Germany, which I will discuss on the next slide. Our largest market in Northern Europe segment is the U.K., which represented 35% of segment revenues in the quarter. During the quarter, U.K. revenues decreased 13% on a days adjusted constant currency basis. This reflects a slight improvement from the rate of decline from the third quarter.

我們在該地區的重組費用的最大組成部分是由德國推動的，我將在下一張幻燈片中討論這一點。我們在北歐細分市場的最大市場是英國，佔本季細分市場收入的 35%。本季度，英國營收以日調整固定匯率計算下降 13%。這反映出較第三季的下降速度略有改善。

We expect a similar year-over-year revenue trend in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter. In Germany, revenues increased 4% in days adjusted constant currency in the quarter, driven by our Manpower business. The previously announced wind down of our Proservia managed service business in Germany is largely complete, having substantially agreed terms with applicable workers' councils and impacted clients and during the second half of 2023.

我們預計第一季的年收入趨勢與第四季類似。在德國，在人力業務的推動下，以固定匯率調整後的天數計算，本季營收成長了 4%。先前宣布的德國 Proservia 託管服務業務的關閉已基本完成，我們已與適用的工人委員會和受影響的客戶就條款達成了實質協議，並於 2023 年下半年完成。

The restructuring costs recorded in the quarter largely concludes the wind-down related one-off costs for our Proservia business. We have some final client transition activity running off in the first half of 2024, which will generate operating losses, which we will carve out separately for this discontinued business, which I will discuss in our guidance.

本季記錄的重組成本主要包括與 Proservia 業務縮減相關的一次性成本。我們將在 2024 年上半年進行一些最終的客戶轉換活動，這將產生營運損失，我們將針對這項已終止的業務單獨處理這些損失，我將在我們的指南中討論這一點。

The wind down of our Proservia business removes a significant drag on our Germany operations and represents a significant step in strengthening the business for the future. In the first quarter, we are expecting a year-over-year revenue decline as certain automotive clients experienced isolated supply chain-related production slowdowns.

Proservia 業務的結束消除了對我們德國業務的重大拖累，也是加強未來業務的重要一步。由於某些汽車客戶經歷了與供應鏈相關的孤立生產放緩，我們預計第一季營收將同比下降。

In the Netherlands, revenue decreased 8% on a days adjusted constant currency basis, and this represented a further rate of decline from the third quarter on the sustained basis. As previously referenced, based on the deteriorating market conditions in the Netherlands in recent quarters, we updated our goodwill impairment assessment at year-end and recorded a noncash impairment charge of $55 million.

在荷蘭，以天數調整後的固定匯率計算，營收下降了 8%，與第三季相比持續下降。如前所述，根據荷蘭近幾季不斷惡化的市場狀況，我們在年底更新了商譽減損評估，並記錄了 5,500 萬美元的非現金減損費用。

We continue to monitor our Netherlands business closely and are taking various actions to improve profitability. The Asia Pacific Middle East segment comprises 12% of total company revenue. In the quarter, revenue was down 1% in organic constant currency to $552 million.

我們將繼續密切監控我們的荷蘭業務，並採取各種行動來提高獲利能力。亞太中東業務占公司總收入的 12%。以有機固定匯率計算，本季營收下降 1%，至 5.52 億美元。

OUP was $22 million. OUP margin was 3.9%, flat year-over-year. The largest market in the APME segment is Japan, which represented 51% of segment revenues in the quarter. Revenue in Japan grew 10% in constant currency or 8% on a days adjusted basis. We remain very pleased with the consistent performance of our Japan business, and we expect continued strong revenue growth in the first quarter.

OUP 為 2200 萬美元。 OUP 利潤率為 3.9%，與去年同期持平。 APME 細分市場最大的市場是日本，佔本季細分市場收入的 51%。日本的營收以固定匯率計算成長 10%，以調整天數計算成長 8%。我們對日本業務的持續表現感到非常滿意，並預計第一季營收將繼續強勁成長。

I'll now turn to cash flow and balance sheet. In full year 2023, free cash flow equaled $270 million compared to $348 million in the prior year. In the fourth quarter, free cash flow represented $91 million compared to $115 million in the prior year. At year-end, days sales outstanding decreased about 1.5 days to 54 days. During the fourth quarter, capital expenditures represented $23 million.

我現在轉向現金流和資產負債表。 2023 年全年，自由現金流為 2.7 億美元，而前一年為 3.48 億美元。第四季自由現金流為 9,100 萬美元，而上年同期為 1.15 億美元。年底，應收帳款週轉天數減少約 1.5 天至 54 天。第四季資本支出為 2,300 萬美元。

During the fourth quarter, we repurchased 695,000 shares of stock for $50 million. As of December 31, we have 4.6 million shares remaining for repurchase under the share program approved in August of 2023. Our balance sheet ended the year with cash of $581 million and total debt of $1 billion. Net debt equaled $421 million at year-end.

第四季度，我們以 5,000 萬美元回購了 695,000 股股票。截至 12 月 31 日，根據 2023 年 8 月批准的股票計劃，我們尚有 460 萬股可供回購。截至 2023 年，我們的資產負債表中現金為 5.81 億美元，債務總額為 10 億美元。截至年底，淨債務為 4.21 億美元。

Our debt ratios at year-end reflect total gross debt to trailing 12 months adjusted EBITDA of $1.83 and total debt to total capitalization at 31%. Our debt and credit facilities remained unchanged during the quarter.

我們年末的負債比率反映了總債務與過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的比值為 1.83 美元，總負債與總資本的比值為 31%。本季我們的債務和信貸安排保持不變。

Next, review our outlook for the first quarter of 2024. Based on trends in the fourth quarter and January activity to date, our forecast is cautious and anticipates that the first quarter will continue to be challenging with further declines in our businesses in Europe which include expected lower seasonal bench utilization in the first quarter in certain markets such as the Nordics.

接下來，回顧我們對2024 年第一季的展望。根據第四季度的趨勢和迄今為止1 月份的活動，我們的預測持謹慎態度，並預計第一季將繼續面臨挑戰，因為我們在歐洲的業務進一步下滑，其中包括預計北歐等某些市場第一季季節性工作台利用率較低。

Our forecast for Q1 also anticipates ongoing low levels of permanent recruitment activity. It is also important to note that there is typically a meaningful seasonal sequential decrease in earnings from the fourth quarter to the first quarter. With that said, we are forecasting earnings per share for the first quarter to be in the range of $0.88 to $0.98, which excludes a forecasted unfavorable impact of $0.14 related to the runoff of the discontinued Proservia Germany business which will cease activity after the second quarter.

我們對第一季的預測也預計長期招募活動將持續保持在低水準。還需要注意的是，從第四季度到第一季度，獲利通常會出現明顯的季節性連續下降。儘管如此，我們預計第一季每股收益將在 0.88 美元至 0.98 美元之間，其中不包括與已終止的 Proservia 德國業務流失相關的 0.14 美元的不利影響，該業務將在第二季後停止活動。

The guidance range also includes an unfavorable foreign currency impact of $0.02 per share, and our foreign currency translation rate estimates are disclosed at the bottom of the guidance slide. Our constant currency revenue guidance range is between a decrease of 4% and 8%, and at the midpoint represents a 6% decrease.

指導範圍還包括每股 0.02 美元的不利外幣影響，我們的外幣換算率估計值披露在指導幻燈片的底部。我們的固定貨幣收入指引範圍為下降 4% 至 8%，中間值表示下降 6%。

The impact of net dispositions and less working days contributes to an organic days adjusted constant currency revenue trend of about a 5% decrease at the midpoint. This represents a similar rate of decrease from the fourth quarter trend on the same basis. Excluding the discontinued Proservia runoff business impact on the first quarter of 2024, EBITDA margin is projected to be down 100 basis points at the midpoint.

淨處置和工作日減少的影響導致有機天數調整後的固定貨幣收入趨勢中點下降約 5%。這與第四季趨勢在相同基礎上的下降率相似。排除已終止的 Proservia 徑流業務對 2024 年第一季的影響，預計 EBITDA 利潤率中位數將下降 100 個基點。

We estimate that the effective tax rate for the first quarter will be 31%, which reflects the mix effect of lower earnings from lower tax geographies in the current environment with some expected offsetting tax items. We expect the full year 2024 effective tax rate to be approximately 32.5%, which incorporates a modest reduction in the French business tax as discussed last quarter and the current mix of earnings trends. When business in our lower rate geographies begin to improve, we expect the tax rate will begin to return to the lower underlying rates.

我們預計第一季的有效稅率將為31%，這反映了當前環境下低稅收地區獲利下降與一些預期抵銷稅項的混合效應。我們預計 2024 年全年有效稅率約為 32.5%，其中包括上季度討論的法國營業稅的適度降低以及當前的盈利趨勢組合。當我們較低稅率地區的業務開始改善時，我們預計稅率將開始恢復到較低的基本稅率。

As usual, our guidance does not incorporate restructuring charges or additional share repurchases, and we estimate our weighted average shares to be $49.2 million. Our guidance also does not include the impact of the noncash currency translation adjustment for our hyperinflationary Argentina business, and we will also report that separately. I will now turn it back to Jonas.

像往常一樣，我們的指導不包括重組費用或額外的股票回購，我們估計我們的加權平均股票為 4,920 萬美元。我們的指導也不包括非現金貨幣換算調整對我們惡性通貨膨脹的阿根廷業務的影響，我們也將單獨報告。我現在將其轉回給喬納斯。

Thank you, Jack. We have taken decisive actions to manage costs and improve our business and are accelerating our transformation road map to simplify our operations to drive sustainable efficiencies. The actions we have taken within our Germany Proservia managed services business, simplify our Germany business and position it for success. We remain confident in our diversification, digitization and innovation DDI strategy and are making strong progress across many key pillars of our plan.

謝謝你，傑克。我們已採取果斷行動來管理成本和改善我們的業務，並正在加快我們的轉型路線圖，以簡化我們的運營，從而提高永續效率。我們在德國 Proservia 託管服務業務中採取的行動簡化了我們的德國業務並使其成功。我們對我們的多元化、數位化和創新 DDI 策略仍然充滿信心，並在我們計劃的許多關鍵支柱上取得了強勁進展。

Diversification is how we accelerate growth of higher margin business in all our brands. The Manpower brand is our history and our future, and the diverse clients we serve across verticals has enabled us to pivot to opportunities as economic uncertainty has impacted some sectors to a greater extent than others and some geographies more than others as well. Last quarter, we saw solid demand in automotive, public sector and logistics in several markets, offsetting pressures in other manufacturing verticals across our portfolio.

多元化是我們加速所有品牌高利潤業務成長的方式。萬寶盛華品牌是我們的歷史和未來，我們在各個垂直領域服務的多元化客戶使我們能夠抓住機遇，因為經濟不確定性對某些行業的影響比其他行業更大，對某些地區的影響也比其他地區更大。上季度，我們看到多個市場的汽車、公共部門和物流需求強勁，抵消了我們投資組合中其他製造業垂直領域的壓力。

We also continue to strengthen the flexibility of our delivery models to our teams serve our clients in ways that best work for them. The growing demand for integrated on-site solutions with our clients is strengthening our relationships while we achieved increased productivity and revenues. Our focus on specialized skills is also beginning to deliver profitability improvements as we continue to boost skills and employability with our Manpower MyPath program, creating talent at scale in response to skill shortages and demographic trends.

我們也持續加強交付模式的靈活性，讓我們的團隊以最適合客戶的方式為他們服務。客戶對整合現場解決方案日益增長的需求正在加強我們的關係，同時我們提高了生產力和收入。隨著我們繼續透過 Manpower MyPath 計劃提高技能和就業能力，大規模培養人才以應對技能短缺和人口趨勢，我們對專業技能的關注也開始帶來盈利能力的提高。

Today, every company is a tech-enabled company. To meet the varied needs of our clients, we're diversifying delivering our Experience IT resourcing and services brand with offshore and nearshore solutions, including our IT talent hub in India that is bolstering enterprise client fulfillment. At the same time, our Experis academies continue to develop IT talent for growth roles in our key practice areas. As workforce complexity grows, clients value the breadth of offerings within our Talent Solutions brand, our Right management, recruitment process outsourcing and TAPFIN managed services provider offerings have all been recognized as global leaders in 2023.

如今，每家公司都是一家技術型公司。為了滿足客戶的不同需求，我們正在透過離岸和近岸解決方案提供多元化的體驗 IT 資源和服務品牌，其中包括我們位於印度的 IT 人才中心，該中心可增強企業客戶的滿意度。同時，我們的 Experis 學院繼續培養 IT 人才，以在我們的關鍵實踐領域發揮成長作用。隨著勞動力複雜性的增加，客戶看重我們人才解決方案品牌內提供的產品的廣度，我們的正確管理、招聘流程外包和 TAPFIN 託管服務提供商產品均已被公認為 2023 年全球領導者。

Talent acquisition, development and transformation continue to be key priorities for our enterprise clients. As economic uncertainty persists, we have seen good growth in our Right Management business as companies seek to rightsize their organization, which has helped offset the reduction in recruitment activities impacting other offerings in the current environment.

人才獲取、發展和轉型仍然是我們企業客戶的首要任務。由於經濟不確定性持續存在，隨著公司尋求調整其組織規模，我們看到我們的正確管理業務取得了良好的成長，這有助於抵消當前環境下影響其他產品的招募活動的減少。

Turning to digitization. We've made great progress in our technology road map during 2023. And we are proud to be leading the global industry through the deployment of PowerSuite, our global cloud-based platforms for front and back office. And I'm pleased with the work that we're doing to align our data using these platforms across our operations globally. By the end of 2023, the majority of our global revenues were using the PowerSuite front office and by the end of 2024, substantially, all of our revenues will be running through common technology, front office and web platforms.

轉向數位化。我們在 2023 年的技術路線圖上取得了巨大進展。我們很自豪能夠透過部署 PowerSuite（我們面向前台和後台的全球雲端平台）來引領全球產業。我對我們在全球營運中使用這些平台調整數據所做的工作感到滿意。到 2023 年底，我們的全球大部分收入都來自 PowerSuite 前台，到 2024 年底，我們的所有收入基本上都將透過通用技術、前台和網路平台運作。

We also continue to make very good progress on our back-office platform with significant country opplementations in progress, including major businesses such as France and the U.S. Innovation is how we future-proof our organization, accelerating the deployment of our AI recruitment tools and leveraging machine learning to enhance recruiter productivity.

我們也在後台平台上繼續取得非常好的進展，重大國家/地區合作正在進行中，包括法國和美國等主要企業。創新是我們面向未來的組織的方式，加速部署我們的人工智慧招募工具並利用創新機器學習可提高招募人員的工作效率。

We continue to make progress with scalable pilots in key markets. Our leading global technology infrastructure positions us very well for deploying AI-driven innovations and recruiter productivity tools at scale and speed. Each year, we provided an update on our sustainability progress, and we're proud of our ongoing commitment to people and the planet.

我們繼續在關鍵市場的可擴展試點方面取得進展。我們領先的全球技術基礎設施使我們能夠大規模、快速地部署由人工智慧驅動的創新和招募人員生產力工具。每年，我們都會提供有關永續發展進展的最新信息，我們為我們對人類和地球的持續承諾感到自豪。

In November, we released our third annual working to change the world's report. Citing continued progress in upskilling people for in-demand roles and leading the way in ethical AI governance, developing best practice guardrails to help us and the clients we serve navigate this new space. Our recent survey of 38,000 global hiring managers also found 70% of employers are urgently recruiting or planning to recruit green talent.

11 月，我們發布了第三份年度「努力改變世界」報告。引用在提高人員技能以滿足需求角色和引領道德人工智慧治理方面不斷取得的進展，開發最佳實踐護欄來幫助我們和我們服務的客戶駕馭這個新空間。我們最近對全球 38,000 名招募經理的調查還發現，70% 的雇主正在緊急招募或計劃招募綠色人才。

With the highest demand in renewable energy, manufacturing, operations and IT. We're committed to taking a pragmatic industry-specific approach to green jobs and we're pleased to partner with our clients at the World Economic Forum in Davos to highlight the new skills and jobs that will be created as companies seek to compete better and become greener and more sustainable.

再生能源、製造、營運和 IT 領域的需求最高。我們致力於採取針對具體行業的務實方法來實現綠色就業，我們很高興在達沃斯世界經濟論壇上與我們的客戶合作，重點介紹隨著公司尋求更好的競爭和發展而將創造的新技能和就業機會。變得更綠色、更永續。

Our DDI strategy is positioning us for profitable growth and winning in the market, and we're making good progress in a challenging environment. During times a great change. Our teams are passionate about bringing people along as we shape the future work and the future for workers. Our talented colleagues around the world are dedicated to providing practical solutions to upscale people for success, and providing companies with resilient adaptable talent so they can flex and strengthen their workforces to deliver on their business strategy. I'd now like to open the line to Q&A. Operator?

我們的 DDI 策略使我們能夠實現盈利成長並贏得市場，並且我們在充滿挑戰的環境中取得了良好的進展。一時之間發生了巨大的變化。我們的團隊熱衷於帶領人們一起塑造未來的工作和員工的未來。我們遍布世界各地的才華橫溢的同事致力於為高端人士提供成功的實用解決方案，並為公司提供有彈性、適應性強的人才，以便他們能夠靈活和加強員工隊伍，以實現其業務戰略。我現在想開通問答線路。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) the first question comes from Andrew Steinerman with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自摩根大通的安德魯·斯坦納曼（Andrew Steinerman）。

It does seem more likely that the Fed will walk us straight (inaudible) landing here in the U.S. and obviously, the stock market has received that favorably. Obviously, soft landing still needs to be executed, and that would be slowing GDP and rising unemployment rate. So I wanted to note about your first quarter guide. I know you used the word cautious, but it does include a more narrow year-over-year revenue decline in the U.S. compared to the fourth quarter. Is that only about the year-over-year comps? Or do you feel like that's the early effect of a soft landing as well? And I'm only talking about the U.S.

聯準會似乎更有可能直接引導我們（聽不清楚）登陸美國，顯然，股市對此表示歡迎。顯然，軟著陸仍然需要執行，這將導致GDP放緩和失業率上升。所以我想談談你們的第一季指南。我知道您使用了“謹慎”這個詞，但它確實包括與第四季度相比美國的同比收入降幅更窄。這僅與同比比較有關嗎？或者你覺得這也是軟著陸的早期影響嗎？我只談論美國

Andrew, I'd say that our first quarter guide reflects both because what we've seen, and I mentioned this in our prepared remarks, in a number of markets, including the U.S., we've seen stabilization.

安德魯，我想說，我們的第一季指南反映了這兩點，因為我們所看到的，我在準備好的演講中提到了這一點，在包括美國在內的許多市場，我們已經看到了穩定。

In terms of our trend at the lower level for our brands as well as for the various offerings such as perm. So that stabilization carries us through into the first quarter, and that means the comparable decline, of course, lessens. So that's why you're seeing the improvement. So comps do play a role, but also the fact that we're seeing sequential stabilization across brands and offerings in the U.S. and a number of other countries as well.

就我們品牌以及燙髮等各種產品的較低水平趨勢而言。因此，這種穩定性使我們進入了第一季度，這意味著可比下降當然會減少。這就是您看到改進的原因。因此，比較確實發揮了作用，但事實上，我們看到美國和其他一些國家的品牌和產品連續穩定。

Could you just say a little bit more about how a soft landing in the U.S. would affect Manpower's U.S. business?

您能否再多談談美國的軟著陸將如何影響萬寶盛華的美國業務？

Well, if we see that the economy improves and what will drive the biggest difference to our business is that employer confidence broadly improves, that will clearly mean that we could reach then the inflection point and see an upturn in demand for our services across all of our brands. And I think that is, of course -- will be welcome U.S. when it happens, as we mentioned in our prepared remarks, we not seeing that inflection point yet but a soft landing in the U.S. would, of course, be very welcome.

好吧，如果我們看到經濟好轉，而對我們業務最大的影響是雇主信心普遍改善，這顯然意味著我們可能會達到拐點，並看到所有領域對我們服務的需求都會上升。我們的品牌。我認為，當然，當這種情況發生時，美國會受到歡迎，正如我們在準備好的演講中提到的那樣，我們還沒有看到拐點，但美國的軟著陸當然會非常受歡迎。

The next question comes from Jeff Silber with BMO.

下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Jeff Silber。

Just a follow-up from Andrew's question. Maybe if I can ask the same thing about Europe. Obviously, trends there are a little bit weaker. But what do you think will take to get that either economy moving again or your business moving again in that region?

只是安德魯問題的後續。也許我可以對歐洲提出同樣的問題。顯然，那裡的趨勢有點弱。但您認為如何才能使該地區的經濟再次發展或您的業務再次發展？

Jeff. Yes, as you might have seen this morning, the economic trends in Europe are noticeably weaker. And they just declared across the Eurozone a no growth environment for Q4. But some of the reasons behind that lack of economic growth are higher energy costs less government stimulus. But I think what is clear from speaking to clients in Europe is they consider the environment tough, the outlook uncertain but the headwinds manageable. So they still have a constructive outlook as they look into 2024.

傑夫.是的，正如您今天早上可能已經看到的那樣，歐洲的經濟趨勢明顯疲軟。他們剛剛宣布整個歐元區第四季沒有成長環境。但經濟成長乏力背後的部分原因是能源成本上升以及政府刺激措施減少。但我認為，從與歐洲客戶的交談中可以清楚看出，他們認為環境艱難，前景不確定，但逆風是可控的。因此，他們在展望 2024 年時仍然抱持著建設性的前景。

And they are clearly telling us we're not seeing the upturn yet, but we expect things to improve as the economy improves. If you look at the distribution of where the economic pain is the greatest, I think it's clear that Northern Europe and Germany in particular, faces major economic headwinds and other parts of Northern Europe as well, Netherlands and Scandinavia, and we can see that reflected in our business.

他們清楚地告訴我們，我們還沒有看到經濟好轉，但我們預計隨著經濟的改善，情況會有所改善。如果你看看經濟痛苦最嚴重的地區的分佈，我認為很明顯，北歐和德國，尤其是北歐和德國，以及北歐其他地區、荷蘭和斯堪的納維亞半島，都面臨著重大的經濟逆風，我們可以看到這一點反映出來在我們的業務中。

And then we have Southern Europe with France getting a little bit softer, but Italy and Spain actually still being relatively strong from an economic growth perspective. So all of this to say, Europe is lagging the U.S. in terms of economic growth, which could also mean that as we think about a softer landing, the U.S. could come back sooner and quicker than Europe potentially.

然後是南歐，法國的情況有些疲軟，但從經濟成長的角度來看，義大利和西班牙實際上仍然相對強勁。綜上所述，歐洲在經濟成長方面落後於美國，這也可能意味著，當我們考慮軟著陸時，美國可能會比歐洲更快、更快地復甦。

So the likelihood of a major step down today as we look out and we talk to the companies that we serve, appears to be more focused on Black Swan like events related to geopolitical events that are very hard to predict. Other than that, their outlook is constructed into a recovering economy, so they believe it will. They just don't know when.

因此，當我們觀察並與我們服務的公司交談時，今天出現重大降級的可能性似乎更集中於與地緣政治事件相關的黑天鵝事件，這些事件很難預測。除此之外，他們的前景是建立在經濟復甦的基礎上的，所以他們相信經濟會復甦。他們只是不知道什麼時候。

Okay. That's helpful. If I could go more broadly and we can talk about billing rates and spreads. I know every region is different, but if you give us some high-level color in terms of what's going on there, I'd appreciate it.

好的。這很有幫助。如果我可以更廣泛地討論的話，我們可以討論計費費率和點差。我知道每個地區都是不同的，但如果您能向我們提供一些有關那裡正在發生的事情的高級信息，我將不勝感激。

Jeff, sure, this is Jack. Yes, I'd be happy to talk to that. I mean I'll talk more generally since we don't publish specific billing rates due to the number of major markets we're in. But what I would say, and this aligns very much to what you saw in the GP margin walk is staffing is holding up very, very well. So we're seeing stable margins on the staffing side, and that's coming through in terms of bill rates. I'd say pretty stable overall for the fourth quarter.

傑夫，當然，這是傑克。是的，我很樂意談論這一點。我的意思是，我會更籠統地談論，因為我們所處的主要市場數量眾多，因此我們不會公佈具體的計費費率。但我想說的是，這與您在GP 利潤率變化中看到的情況非常吻合人員配備非常非常好。因此，我們看到人員配置方面的利潤率穩定，這也反映在帳單費率方面。我想說第四季整體相當穩定。

And as you think about our guide into the first quarter, we expect that to continue. Our guide does reflect on the staffing margin and the gross profit margin side, a little more pressure in Northern Europe. We do expect to see a little more sickness in some of the bench countries based on what we're seeing in January.

當您思考我們第一季的指南時，我們預計這種情況將繼續下去。我們的指南確實反映了人員配備率和毛利率方面，北歐的壓力更大一些。根據我們一月份的情況，我們確實預期一些替補國家會出現更多的疾病。

Nothing that we would say would be a concern as we get through the first -- after the first quarter. But we do expect a little bit, but that's really more an impact on utilization. But so far, I'd say spreads and bill rates are holding up and are actually have been quite resilient.

當我們度過第一季之後，我們所說的一切都不會成為問題。但我們確實期望有一點，但這對利用率的影響更大。但到目前為止，我想說的是，利差和票據利率一直保持不變，而且實際上相當有彈性。

The next question comes from Josh Chan with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Josh Chan。

I guess my first question is on margins. Could you talk about in Q4, what transpired to be slightly better than you expected on the margin front? And then if you roll over into Q1, how much of that sequential margin decline from Q4 to Q1 is just reflective of typical normal seasonality? And how much of the change is anything structural or demand related.

我想我的第一個問題是關於邊緣的。您能否談談第四季度在利潤率方面比您預期略好的情況？然後，如果您轉到第一季度，從第四季度到第一季度的連續利潤率下降有多少只是反映了典型的正常季節性？變化有多少是與結構性或需求相關的。

Yes. Sure. I'd be happy to talk to that. So yes, we did come in at the higher end of our GP margin range, which was great. The way I would explain that, and you saw the year-over-year bridge on the margin. But generally, as we looked at the guide, France came in a bit better. We did say that we had a bit of a cautious guide on France in the fourth quarter. So France came in a bit better and those higher levels of activity at higher margin year-over-year in France came through, which helped the staffing margin a bit.

是的。當然。我很樂意談論這一點。所以，是的，我們確實達到了 GP 利潤範圍的高端，這很棒。按照我的解釋，你會看到邊緣的同比橋樑。但總的來說，當我們查看指南時，法國的表現要好一些。我們確實說過，我們在第四季對法國採取了一些謹慎的態度。因此，法國的表現稍好一些，法國的活動水準較高、利潤率同比較高，這對人員配置利潤率有幫助。

And I'd say perm came in very close to what we were expecting. So what you're starting to see, and I know you inquired on this last quarter is did perm peak in previous quarters at that minus 70 basis points year-over-year? You look in Q4, you see us go to minus 30. And to your question on Q1 expectations, we continue to see that anniversary impact on perm having a lesser impact year-over-year on the GP margin trend.

我想說燙髮非常接近我們的預期。那麼，您開始看到的是，我知道您在上個季度詢問過，前幾個季度的峰值是否比去年同期下降了負 70 個基點？你看看第四季度，你會發現我們的利潤率跌至負30。對於你關於第一季度預期的問題，我們仍然認為週年紀念日對perm的影響對毛利率趨勢的影響較小。

So we would expect that trend to continue. It will be a less year-over-year decline into the first quarter. And as you look at the gross profit margin for Q1 at that $17.3 million at the midpoint, really, that reflects continued stable staffing margins, as I mentioned, with a little pressure in Northern Europe on some utilization issues.

因此，我們預計這種趨勢將持續下去。進入第一季度，年減幅度將縮小。當你看到第一季毛利率為 1730 萬美元的中點時，實際上，正如我所提到的，這反映了持續穩定的員工利潤率，而北歐在一些利用率問題上面臨一些壓力。

But I would say that's isolated and perm continues at stable activity levels, as we talked about. And I think the other item with Q1 is, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, it is typically our smallest quarter and they get hit by some seasonal trends at all that impact the margin a bit as well when you look sequentially from Q4 into Q1. So I'd say that's -- those are the main considerations as you think about GP margin.

但我想說，這是孤立的，正如我們所討論的，燙髮繼續保持穩定的活動水平。我認為第一季度的另一個項目是，正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，這通常是我們最小的季度，他們受到一些季節性趨勢的影響，當你從第四季度到第一季度依序查看時，這些趨勢也會對利潤率產生一點影響。所以我想說的是——這些是你考慮毛利率時的主要考慮因素。

Okay. That's really helpful. And then on the U.S., could you just comment on how you're seeing the seasonal ramp-up in the staffing business. Usually, you ramp up starting in Jan 1 and kind of progresses through the next couple of months. So just any comment on the pace of that ramp-up versus normal? And then if you can have any finer color on how much better the Americas declined in Q1 would be versus Q4, that would be helpful.

好的。這真的很有幫助。然後在美國，您能否評論一下您如何看待人力資源業務的季節性成長。通常，你會從 1 月 1 日開始加速，並在接下來的幾個月中取得進展。那麼，對與正常情況相比的成長速度有什麼評論嗎？然後，如果您能對美洲第一季的下降與第四季度相比好多少有更詳細的說明，那將會有所幫助。

So I'll take the first question -- part of your question, Josh, and then I'll have Jack jump in on the second part. So the seasonal ramp that we expect to see in the beginning of the year is a little bit slower than you would normally expect, which is not surprising given the economic headwinds that we're seeing across Europe and the U.S. and Canada specifically. So it is incorporated in our guide and it's a little bit slower. Of course, we're early in the quarter, so this may all change, but that's what we're seeing right now.

所以我將回答第一個問題——喬希，你的問題的一部分，然後我將讓傑克介入第二部分。因此，我們預計今年年初的季節性成長會比您通常預期的要慢一些，考慮到我們在歐洲、美國和加拿大特別看到的經濟逆風，這並不奇怪。所以它被納入我們的指南中，而且速度有點慢。當然，我們正處於本季度初期，所以這一切可能都會改變，但這就是我們現在所看到的。

And Josh, I would just say on your question on the guide for the Americas for Q1. So you can see Americas overall at the midpoint at that minus 1% in constant currency. Breaking that down between North America and Latin America, what that really means for the U.S., the U.S. just completed a pretty stable trend in the second half of 2023, down 14% days adjusted in Q3 and Q4.

喬希，我只想回答你關於第一季美洲指南的問題。因此，您可以看到美洲總體處於中點，以固定匯率計算為負 1%。細分北美和拉丁美洲，這對美國真正意味著什麼，美國在 2023 年下半年剛剛完成了相當穩定的趨勢，在第三季和第四季調整後天數下降了 14%。

And we see pretty consistent levels of activity at lower levels. As we walk into Q1, that means from a year-over-year perspective, the U.S. will be high single-digit decline improving. But again, and this came up earlier, a big part of that is the comparable from the prior year where the U.S. did step down in the first quarter.

我們看到較低水平的活動水平相當一致。當我們進入第一季時，這意味著從同比角度來看，美國將出現高個位數的降幅改善。但同樣，這一點早些時候就出現過，其中很大一部分是與前一年相比，美國在第一季確實退出了。

But I think the main takeaway is activity levels remain relatively stable. And I'd say it's very similar for Canada. We don't talk a lot about Canada, but Canada has been performing very well on a margin perspective, but experiencing declines, not dissimilar to what we've been seeing in the U.S. market as well.

但我認為主要的結論是活動水準保持相對穩定。我想說加拿大的情況非常相似。我們不太談論加拿大，但加拿大在利潤率方面一直表現良好，但正在經歷下降，這與我們在美國市場看到的情況沒有什麼不同。

So -- and that's pretty consistent in the second half of the year and into the first quarter. And then Latin America continues to do very well. So we anticipate growth. Again, that's what's driving that only minus 1 for the region overall. And Latin America has been performing quite well. It's good to see Mexico go back to double-digit growth in the fourth quarter. And we anticipate the first quarter will be a good environment for Latin America from a revenue perspective.

所以，這在下半年和第一季非常一致。然後拉丁美洲繼續表現出色。所以我們預計會成長。同樣，這就是導致該地區整體成長率僅為負 1 的原因。拉丁美洲的表現也相當不錯。很高興看到墨西哥第四季恢復兩位數成長。我們預計，從收入角度來看，第一季對拉丁美洲來說將是一個良好的環境。

The next question comes from Mark Marcon with Baird.

下一個問題來自馬克·馬爾孔和貝爾德。

I was wondering, with regards to perm, what percentage of GP is perm currently running at?

我想知道，關於perm，目前perm運行的GP百分比是多少？

Yes. Mark, thanks for that. Perm is currently at 15.3%. And I know you inquired on this last quarter as well. It has stepped down a little bit. Last quarter, it was about $16.5 million. And I think that just reflects the continued stabilization. I think year-over-year, the rate in perm decline year-over-year was about the same. And we're just seeing that kind of work its way in.

是的。馬克，謝謝你。 Perm 目前為 15.3%。我知道您也詢問了上個季度的情況。它已經下降了一點點。上季約為 1650 萬美元。我認為這只是反映了持續的穩定。我認為與去年同期相比，燙髮率同比下降的速度大致相同。我們剛剛看到這種工作正在興起。

So I think that reflects -- and I think we commented a little bit on this last quarter as well. I think that reflects a range that's in line with where we were pre-pandemic. So perm has stabilized quite a bit and is more of a typical mix of our GP on an overall basis.

所以我認為這反映了 - 我認為我們也對上個季度進行了一些評論。我認為這反映了與大流行前的情況一致的範圍。所以燙髮已經穩定了很多，整體來說更像是我們 GP 的典型組合。

That's great. And then you've got a number of efficiency initiatives in place. I'm wondering, do you have any updates with regards to -- as we think about the unwinding of the Proservia business what that would end up doing with regards to German margins, all things being equal.

那太棒了。然後您就可以採取一些提高效率的措施。我想知道，當我們考慮解散 Proservia 業務時，您是否有任何最新消息，在所有條件相同的情況下，這最終會對德國利潤率產生什麼影響。

And then, Jonas, you mentioned a number of initiatives that you put in place, including we've got the deployment of Power suite. We've got some new AI initiatives in place. How -- like as we go out, say, 6 months to a year from now, how much more efficient could Manpower be?

然後，喬納斯，您提到了您實施的許多舉措，包括我們部署了 Power 套件。我們已經實施了一些新的人工智慧計劃。就像我們出去一樣，從現在起 6 個月到一年後，Manpower 的效率能提升多少？

So I'll start that, Mark, with your question on Germany specifically. And yes, I think the wind down of Proservia is a major step forward in improving the profitability of Germany. It was a very complex wind down. We're very happy with the way that was conducted. And as I mentioned in our prepared remarks, we've substantially concluded all the one-off actions related to that.

馬克，我會先回答你關於德國的問題。是的，我認為 Proservia 的退出是提高德國獲利能力的重要一步。這是一個非常複雜的結束過程。我們對這種方式非常滿意。正如我在準備好的演講中提到的，我們基本上已經完成了與此相關的所有一次性行動。

So where we are now is just we're down to the final runoff of client contracts through the first half of next year. In my guide, we don't disclose profitability outside the major markets. But what I will say, directionally to answer your question, in my guide, I do carve out the runoff impact of Proservia for the first quarter.

因此，我們現在的情況是，我們將在明年上半年完成客戶合約的最終決選。在我的指南中，我們不會揭露主要市場以外的獲利能力。但我要說的是，為了回答你的問題，在我的指南中，我確實計算了 Proservia 對第一季徑流的影響。

So I said that, that's about 20 basis points on the margin if you were to include it. If you do the math, that would indicate a loss of about $7 million at the midpoint for that business. So I think directionally, that gives you a bit of an idea of that will runoff after the second quarter, and that will be removed from the run rate. And so that will have a significant impact in improving Germany's profitability once we get to the midpoint of 2024.

所以我說，如果將其計算在內，利潤大約是 20 個基點。如果你算一下，這表示該業務的中位數損失約為 700 萬美元。因此，我認為，從方向上來說，這讓您對第二季度之後的徑流有所了解，並且將從運行率中刪除。因此，到 2024 年中期，這將對提高德國的獲利能力產生重大影響。

So it gives you a little bit of an idea of the improvement. And we feel very good about the progress we've made on the Manpower side, as you've seen from the revenue growth rates in Germany and that will be very good for us in the second half of the year.

因此，它可以讓您對改進有一些了解。我們對人力方面取得的進展感到非常滿意，正如您從德國的收入成長率中所看到的那樣，這對我們下半年來說非常有利。

And Mark, to talk a bit about the efficiencies. A good starting point is probably DDI. So our diversification strategy is all about improving our margin mix within and between our brands so that we move into higher-margin businesses. And I think we've made some excellent progress. And as we've noted in our prepared remarks, our GP margin has been resilient, and that's really great to see. And some of that comes, of course, from an improved business mix within our brands as well as between our brands.

馬克，談效率。 DDI 可能是一個很好的起點。因此，我們的多元化策略就是改善品牌內部和品牌之間的利潤組合，以便我們進入利潤率更高的業務。我認為我們已經取得了一些出色的進展。正如我們在準備好的演講中指出的那樣，我們的毛利率一直保持彈性，這真的很高興看到。當然，其中一些來自於我們品牌內部以及品牌之間業務組合的改善。

The digitization efforts that we've been working on almost for 4 years now have really established us at the forefront of our industry because we're deploying a common global platforms for front and back office and web properties. And we are implementing now the last big operations. And as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, by the end of this year, substantially all of our revenues will run through the same web and front office platforms.

我們近四年來一直致力於數位化工作，現在確實使我們處於行業的前沿，因為我們正在為前台和後台以及網路資產部署通用的全球平台。我們現在正在實施最後的大型行動。正如我在準備好的發言中提到的，到今年年底，我們基本上所有的收入都將透過相同的網路和前台平台運作。

And that's what we're really excited about because we think that there are clearly, efficiencies and productivity initiatives that we can now drive not only in each country, but across geographies and implement that speed and scale in a way where we're never able to do before. But it also means that we can improve recruiter productivity and drive fill rates up in a way as we transfer best practices and we implement new tools to support our recruiters become even more successful and productive at a scale and speed that we've never been able to do before.

這就是我們真正感到興奮的地方，因為我們認為，我們現在不僅可以在每個國家，而且可以跨地域推動明顯的效率和生產力舉措，並以我們永遠無法實現的速度和規模實施這些舉措。之前要做的事。但這也意味著，當我們轉移最佳實踐並實施新工具來支持我們的招聘人員以前所未有的規模和速度變得更加成功和高效時，我們可以提高招聘人員的生產力並提高填充率之前要做的事。

But as I also mentioned during my prepared remarks, one of the things that I've learned as it relates to AI in general and generative AI, in particular, is that to take advantage of these new technologies, which look immensely promising in so many areas. The requirement to be able to take advantage of those is to have a modern technology infrastructure. And of course, that's exactly what we have been building for a number of years.

但正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我學到的一件事是，因為它與一般人工智慧和生成人工智慧相關，特別是利用這些新技術，這些技術在許多方面看起來都非常有前途。地區。能夠利用這些優勢的要求是擁有現代化技術基礎設施。當然，這正是我們多年來一直在建立的目標。

So it's too early to talk about the impact of large language models and generative AI now. But the promise they hold we think is immensely exciting, and we feel very good about how we are positioned to take advantage of those improvements as they come to market because we have a global platform where we can deploy them across all of our global organization at the same time, and that is exactly what we're working on as we look ahead into the future.

因此，現在談論大型語言模型和生成式人工智慧的影響還為時過早。但我們認為他們所做的承諾是非常令人興奮的，我們對如何在這些改進進入市場時利用這些改進感到非常滿意，因為我們擁有一個全球平台，可以在我們所有的全球組織中部署它們同時，這正是我們展望未來時正在努力的方向。

And then as you were at doubles, you obviously get to talk to lots of European leaders while you're there as well as your own people. How are your clients in Europe thinking about the economic environment unfolding for this year? You mentioned that it lags the U.S. But there's obviously supply chain constraints that might be impacted by what's occurring geopolitically at this point in time? And Fuel prices continue to be high, and then you've got farmers that are evolving.

然後，就像你在雙打比賽中一樣，你顯然可以在那裡與許多歐洲領導人以及你自己的人民交談。您的歐洲客戶如何看待今年的經濟環境？您提到它落後於美國，但顯然存在供應鏈限制，可能會受到目前地緣政治局勢的影響？燃料價格持續居高不下，農民也不斷進步。

How -- what's the general sense there in terms of how far along are we in terms of this period of softness and when we might see an inflection? I know you're hesitant to say when the inflection could occur. But just -- does it feel like it's getting worse or is it stabilizing?

就這段疲軟時期而言，我們已經走了多遠，以及何時可能會看到拐點，整體感覺是什麼？我知道您對於何時會發生這種變化猶豫不決。但只是——感覺情況是在變得更糟還是在趨於穩定？

Well, I think it depends on which country you're in, Mark. But if I step back and you think about what happened during and after the pandemic. We came out of the pandemic in '21 with tremendous supply chain shortages and companies ordering anything and all the products and services they could get in a pipeline that they largely to start consuming and see a return to normal supply chain functioning sometime end of '22 and all the way through '23, they've been working on the inventories that they've been getting and as they look ahead. They are constructive on the outlook because they note that the uncertainty exists primarily due to geopolitical events but the economic news are actually quite encouraging.

嗯，我認為這取決於你在哪個國家，馬克。但如果我退後一步，想想疫情期間和之後發生的事情。我們在21 年擺脫了大流行，供應鏈嚴重短缺，公司訂購了他們可以在管道中獲得的所有產品和服務，這些產品和服務主要是為了開始消費，並在22 年底的某個時候看到供應鏈恢復正常運作整個 23 年，他們一直在研究現有的庫存並展望未來。他們對前景持建設性態度，因為他們指出，不確定性的存在主要是由於地緣政治事件，但經濟消息實際上相當令人鼓舞。

Labor markets remain strong. Inflation is coming down. Energy prices have stabilized. And their supply chain issues have normalized post pandemic. So from an economic perspective, as you look out, many of the European business leaders we spoke with we're quite upbeat in terms of their outlook for 2024.

勞動市場依然強勁。通貨膨脹正在下降。能源價格已經穩定。他們的供應鏈問題在大流行後已經正常化。因此，從經濟角度來看，如您所見，我們採訪過的許多歐洲商界領袖對 2024 年的前景非常樂觀。

They know that geopolitical uncertainties could impact that, but that's nothing they control. So within the things they control, felt constructive about '24, but they know we don't know when it's going to be improving don't know when interest rates are going to come down. But overall, they are probably very much thinking that this is an environment that is tough.

他們知道地緣政治的不確定性可能會影響這一點，但這不是他們所能控制的。因此，在他們控制的事情範圍內，對「24」感到有建設性，但他們知道我們不知道情況何時會有所改善，也不知道利率何時會下降。但總的來說，他們可能非常認為這是一個艱難的環境。

Challenging headwinds in a number of industries, but they can see the elements of the recovery are there. And until then, they're waiting, they're holding, but they are getting ready for the recovery. That's my sense.

許多行業都面臨著挑戰​​，但他們可以看到復甦的因素已經存在。在那之前，他們正在等待，他們正在堅持，但他們正在為復甦做好準備。這就是我的感覺。

The next question comes from Kartik Mehta with Northcoast Research.

下一個問題來自 Northcoast Research 的 Kartik Mehta。

Jack, I wanted to go back to a statement you made about bill rate spreads and then holding fairly stable. And so I'm assuming competition hasn't picked up. And if that's an accurate statement, are you at all surprised considering what's going on with revenue trends that competition hasn't picked up?

傑克，我想回到您關於票據利率利差然後保持相當穩定的聲明。所以我假設競爭還沒加劇。如果這是一個準確的說法，那麼考慮到競爭尚未加劇的收入趨勢，您是否感到驚訝？

Well, I would say on that, Kartik, really, if you look at the labor market to Jonas' earlier comments, the backdrop to all of this is the labor market is still relatively tight. It's been incredibly resilient. And as a result, it's still relatively hard to get quality workers. So our clients are willing to continue to pay, I'd say, stable bill rates and margins have been holding for that reason.

好吧，我想說的是，卡蒂克，真的，如果你看看喬納斯之前的評論中的勞動力市場，所有這一切的背景都是勞動力市場仍然相對緊張。它具有令人難以置信的彈性。因此，要獲得優質工人仍然相對困難。因此，我想說，我們的客戶願意繼續支付，因此穩定的帳單費率和利潤率一直保持不變。

Even though demand has been down, I think the backdrop of the labor markets still being relatively tight, is a big part of the equation that's holding staffing margins to where they are. And I would say it isn't broad brush.

儘管需求有所下降，但我認為勞動市場仍然相對緊張的背景是使員工利潤率保持在現有水平的一個重要因素。我想說這不是粗略的。

There are -- as we said, there are a lot of markets that are actually not seeing the same degree of pressure that we're seeing in some of North America and some of the European markets. And that's been a positive as well, I think, in terms of stronger demand in certain markets. If you take a step back and you look at markets like Italy only down low single digits, right? So it's really in the markets where you're seeing the bigger declines that I think it is a fair question to ask, why aren't you seeing a little more pressure?

正如我們所說，有很多市場實際上沒有看到我們在一些北美和一些歐洲市場所看到的相同程度的壓力。我認為，就某些市場的強勁需求而言，這也是正面的。如果你退後一步，你會發現像義大利這樣的市場只下跌了低個位數，對吧？因此，我認為確實是在市場上看到更大的跌幅，這是一個合理的問題，為什麼你沒有看到更大的壓力？

But I think if you look at the labor markets in those countries, that's really the reason why it's been holding up quite well.

但我認為，如果你看看這些國家的勞動市場，你會發現這確實是其一直保持良好狀態的原因。

And then I wanted to get your perspective, your unit's perspective on Right Management. We're here at least in the headlines, more layoffs, more companies kind of rightsizing their labor force. And I'm wondering -- as you -- just the outlook in that business?

然後我想了解您的觀點，您所在單位對正確管理的看法。我們至少出現在頭條新聞中，更多的裁員，更多的公司正在調整勞動力規模。我跟你一樣想知道這個行業的前景如何？

I think, what we have seen is an increased demand for the services of Right Management, but I think we need to put that within the context of what we're seeing employers doing overall. So whilst they are -- some are trimming their workforces, most employers are still holding on to their workforce. And any reduction in workforce for now has been really mostly felt by our industry and other indicators of labor market flexibility and doesn't touch their specific workforce.

我認為，我們看到的是對正確管理服務的需求不斷增加，但我認為我們需要將其置於我們所看到的雇主整體所做的事情的背景下。因此，雖然有些雇主正在裁員，但大多數雇主仍在保留他們的勞動力。目前勞動力的任何減少實際上主要是由我們的行業和勞動力市場靈活性的其他指標感受到的，並且不影響他們的特定勞動力。

Clearly, you've seen the tech company, the large enterprise tech companies do this early into '23 and resize their workforce. And you now have other organizations that are also trimming their workforces for various reasons. But as we look into the first quarter, what we're estimating is that we'll continue to see good demand for Right Management resources, but not an accelerated demand for those offerings.

顯然，您已經看到科技公司，大型企業科技公司在 23 世紀初期就這樣做了，並調整了員工規模。現在，其他組織也出於各種原因正在裁員。但當我們展望第一季時，我們估計，我們將繼續看到對正確管理資源的良好需求，但對這些產品的需求不會加速。

And that would indicate that the employer attitude is still by and large hold on to our workforce and wait for the economic conditions and -- to come back, employer confidence to increase as opposed to preparing for larger-scale layoffs that would indicate a much stronger growth in Right Management. So that's how we would think about it.

這表明雇主的態度總體上仍然保留著我們的勞動力，等待經濟狀況的好轉，雇主信心的增強，而不是為更大規模的裁員做準備，這將表明經濟狀況會更加強勁。正確管理的成長。這就是我們的想法。

The next question comes from Manav Patnaik with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的馬納夫·帕特奈克（Manav Patnaik）。

Apologies if this is an overgeneralization, but what environment, I guess, is perfect for you guys? So in the U.S., I suppose that there's a soft landing and job growth is still moderating, perhaps there's more temps than permanent hiring activity because of that. And then in Europe, things seem to be worse, not along the same line. So is that just bad that there's no hiring temp or permanent? Just trying to appreciate what the right mix is.

如果這太過籠統，我深感歉意，但我想什麼環境最適合你們呢？因此，在美國，我認為會出現軟著陸，就業成長仍在放緩，因此臨時招募活動可能多於永久招募活動。然後在歐洲，情況似乎更糟，但情況並非如此。那麼，沒有臨時工或長期工是不是很糟糕呢？只是想了解什麼是正確的組合。

Well, Manav, the perfect environment for us is global demand for our services and solutions is booming. But that is not the case for our industry in this moment, at least. But I would say, when we think about the demand for our services, this is an economic cycle that is increasingly looking similar to many other cycles that we have seen.

嗯，馬納夫，對我們來說完美的環境是全球對我們的服務和解決方案的需求正在蓬勃發展。但至少目前我們這個行業的情況並非如此。但我想說，當我們考慮對我們服務的需求時，這個經濟週期與我們所見過的許多其他週期越來越相似。

As we discussed in our last quarter earnings call, from what we're seeing, whilst our industry is absorbing a lessening of demand taking within a historical context this is still within the realms of a softer economy, whether it's a soft landing or a lighter recession. That's for others to say. But there -- the stabilization of perm recruitment across a number of quarters now in the context of a strong labor market means that companies are still hiring people. They are just being much more deliberate, much more cautious and much more precise in what kind of talent they're bringing in.

正如我們在上一季的財報電話會議中所討論的那樣，從我們所看到的情況來看，雖然我們的行業正在歷史背景下吸收需求的減少，但這仍然處於經濟疲軟的範圍內，無論是軟著陸還是放緩經濟衰退。那是別人說的。但在勞動市場強勁的背景下，燙髮招募在多個季度的穩定意味著公司仍在招募員工。他們只是在引進什麼樣的人才方面更加深思熟慮、更加謹慎、更加精確。

And I'd say the same thing applies for temporary staffing. Yes, we've seen a drop in demand, in particular, from an enterprise client perspective and in certain sectors. But overall, both geographically in LatAm and in Asia Pacific, as well as in other parts of Europe, you can see that there is still demand for temporary staffing and our Experis consultants with the IT skills and specializations that they have.

我想說同樣的情況也適用於臨時人員配置。是的，我們已經看到需求下降，特別是從企業客戶的角度和某些行業來看。但總體而言，無論是在拉丁美洲、亞太地區還是在歐洲其他地區，您都可以看到對臨時員工以及我們擁有 IT 技能和專業知識的 Experis 顧問的需求仍然存在。

So what we believe is going to be an important turning point is when employers caution moves into employer confidence in an improved outlook. And as we've seen in past recoveries, the time when employers are more confident, but not fully confident in the recovery is when we see a big move upwards in demand for our services and solutions across our brands. because a lot of companies, of course, are reducing their own hiring, their talent acquisitions, teams are either gone or reduced, and that means they need additional capacity to ramp up the workforce they need to be able to compete and to prepare to execute and continue their business strategy.

因此，我們認為，當雇主的謹慎態度轉變為雇主對前景改善的信心時，這將是一個重要的轉捩點。正如我們在過去的復甦中看到的那樣，雇主對復甦更有信心但又不完全有信心的時候，就是我們看到對我們品牌的服務和解決方案的需求大幅上升的時候。當然，因為許多公司正在減少自己的招募、人才收購、團隊消失或減少，這意味著他們需要額外的能力來增加勞動力，以便能夠競爭並準備好執行並繼續他們的業務策略。

And that's, I think, where we are. Right now, employers are more cautious. They have -- they think it's manageable, and you can see that in our overall numbers. But when they get more confident and they feel the turning point is here, that's when we will see it in our business, both in the U.S. as well as in Europe.

我認為這就是我們現在的處境。目前，雇主更加謹慎。他們認為這是可以管理的，你可以從我們的整體數據中看到這一點。但是，當他們變得更加自信並且感覺轉折點已經到來時，我們就會在我們的業務中看到這一點，無論是在美國還是在歐洲。

Got it. And just as a quick follow-up. I mean, given a lot of this, as you've described, is kind of an economic cycle, when you review your businesses like in Germany, Proservia and then in the Netherlands or whatever, like at what point do you decide is more -- like how do you decide is more than just economic cycle and you need to get out of those businesses? Like what are some of the common traits that lead you to that decision?

知道了。就像快速跟進。我的意思是，正如你所描述的，考慮到很多這樣的情況，這是一種經濟週期，當你回顧你的業務時，例如在德國、普羅塞維亞，然後在荷蘭或其他地方，例如你在什麼時候決定更多 - - 例如你如何決定不僅僅是經濟週期，你需要退出這些業務？例如有哪些共同特徵促使您做出這個決定？

Well, I think the Germany example of Proservia is really a unique one-off situation with a specific business that we took over from a client. And it ran very well for a number of years, but then structural issues within that business have proven to be very difficult for us to turn around.

嗯，我認為 Proservia 德國的例子確實是一種獨特的一次性情況，我們從客戶那裡接管了一項特定業務。多年來它運作得很好，但後來事實證明，該業務中的結構性問題讓我們很難扭轉局面。

And at this point and with the German economy being in the state that it is, we've we feel and we feel that it's time to make a significant change, which is what you saw us doing. The other aspect of the Proservia business, it's also noncore to our strategies. So it is really a unique situation in Germany, and that's why we made the change. The situation in Netherlands is not at all on the same -- at that level.

此時此刻，鑑於德國經濟的現狀，我們感覺是時候做出重大改變了，這就是你看到的我們正在做的事情。 Proservia 業務的另一個方面，它也是我們策略的非核心。因此，這在德國確實是一個獨特的情況，這就是我們做出改變的原因。荷蘭的情況根本不在同一水平。

It's a market that's struggling and where we felt that this was a good time to make this adjustment. But overall, we expect to compete and do well in Netherlands over time just as we expect and feel really good about the German market.

這是一個陷入困境的市場，我們認為現在是進行調整的好時機。但總的來說，我們希望隨著時間的推移，我們能夠在荷蘭競爭並取得好成績，就像我們對德國市場的期望和感覺一樣。

The next question comes from Tobey Sommer with Truist Securities.

下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Tobey Sommer。

I wanted to touch on something you just mentioned. We've heard that large companies, in general, have not reduced their own internal recruiting capacity as much as might be normal in -- by historic terms and slowdowns. Could you talk about what you're seeing in terms of internal recruiting capacity at customers and what that may imply for demand for staffing, perm RPO for example, in a recovery?

我想談談你剛才提到的事情。我們聽說，從歷史角度和經濟放緩來看，大公司總體上並沒有像正常情況那樣減少內部招募能力。您能否談談您在客戶內部招募能力方面所看到的情況，以及這可能意味著在復甦過程中對人員配置（例如燙髮 RPO）的需求？

Tobey, I think what we're hearing is that the team, since there's not a lot of hiring going on in many sectors, those individuals have been reallocated. And as you look at 2 other functions and/or have left and are doing different things. So in our conversations as it relates to, for instance, opportunities within our RPO. Many of our customers are getting ready for an upturn or asking us to prepare, they are not ready to pull the trigger yet, but they are clearly thinking about the recovery and what they need to be doing when they are confident that the market is coming back for their products and services. So we really expect this to play out more or less the same way that we've seen other returns and bounce back as far as the industry is concerned, both here in the U.S. and across the world, frankly.

托比，我認為我們聽到的是，由於許多部門沒有進行大量招聘，因此團隊中的人員已被重新分配。當您查看其他兩個功能和/或已經離開並正在做不同的事情時。因此，在我們的對話中，例如，我們的 RPO 中的機會。我們的許多客戶正在為經濟好轉做好準備，或者要求我們做好準備，他們還沒有準備好扣動扳機，但他們顯然正在考慮復甦以及當他們對市場即將到來充滿信心時需要做什麼返回他們的產品和服務。因此，坦白說，就該行業而言，無論是在美國還是在世界各地，我們確實希望這或多或少會以與我們看到的其他回報和反彈相同的方式發揮作用。

Okay. So it sounds like internal recruiting capacity a corporation is being drawn down. Great. What are you experiencing in domestic IT staffing demand? In particular, I was wondering if you could comment on the financial services vertical in tech, including Global Tech?

好的。因此，聽起來一家公司的內部招募能力正在被削減。偉大的。您對國內IT人才需求有何感受？我特別想知道您是否可以對科技領域的金融服務垂直領域（包括全球科技）發表評論？

As we mentioned in a couple of calls ago, the first hold down really came from enterprise tech. And then what we've seen there is a stabilization at the lower level. Convenience clients are holding up much better than enterprise tech, and they are actually significantly better because of the skill shortage is still prevalent in that market. So I would say the tech demand has stabilized at a lower level, better for convenience than for large enterprise organization the banking and the finance sector is now feeling a bit more headwind, but I would characterize it as manageable and you saw our outlook for Experis overall is sequentially stable to slightly improve in the U.S. looking into the first quarter.

正如我們之前在幾次電話中提到的，第一個阻礙實際上來自企業技術。然後我們看到較低水平出現穩定。便利客戶的表現比企業技術好得多，而且實際上要好得多，因為該市場中技能短缺仍然普遍存在。因此，我想說，技術需求已穩定在較低水平，比大型企業組織更方便，銀行和金融部門現在感覺有點逆風，但我認為這是可控的，你看到了我們對 Experis 的前景展望第一季度，美國整體穩定並略有改善。

Next question comes from Trevor Romeo with William Blair.

下一個問題來自特雷弗·羅密歐和威廉·布萊爾。

Just one maybe on Japan, which might get lost in the shuffle a bit given all the focus on Europe, but I think it's been a real bright spot. The performance there has been strong and consistent. So could you maybe just talk about the drivers behind the strength there in Japan, what kind of outlook you have there in the near term?

也許只有日本，考慮到所有的注意力都集中在歐洲，日本可能會在混亂中迷失方向，但我認為這是一個真正的亮點。那裡的表現強勁且穩定。那麼您能否談談日本經濟強勁背後的驅動因素，您對日本近期的前景有何看法？

Well, thanks for bringing that up, Trevor. It's the 37th consecutive quarter of growth in Japan. And I think Japan is a really interesting example of a country that is struggling demographically and has a shortage of labor, but where we've managed to position ourselves both from a Manpower and Experis perspective as really the experts in finding and creating talent at scale. And that's really been one of the key factors of how we've made progress in Japan is, of course, excellent recruitment and delivery capabilities.

好吧，謝謝你提出這個問題，特雷弗。這是日本連續第 37 季實現成長。我認為日本是一個非常有趣的例子，它的國家在人口方面陷入困境，勞動力短缺，但我們成功地從人力和經驗的角度將自己定位為真正大規模尋找和創造人才的專家。當然，這確實是我們在日本取得進展的關鍵因素之一，那就是出色的招募和交付能力。

But each of our brands also has a very strong reskilling and upskilling arm of that brand. So we are generating a lot of talent with marketable skills and scale in Japan. And that is really a main factor of the progress that we've seen. We've also moved into some interesting healthcare areas, eldercare as well as childcare in Japan. And given the aging population, we see that as a very good opportunity, and that's been an investment that we've made over a number of years, and that is starting to take hold.

但我們的每個品牌也擁有非常強大的品牌再培訓和技能提升部門。因此，我們正在日本培養大量具有適銷對路的技能和規模的人才。這確實是我們所看到的進展的一個主要因素。我們也進入了日本一些有趣的醫療保健領域、老年人護理和兒童保育領域。考慮到人口老化，我們認為這是一個非常好的機會，這是我們多年來所做的投資，並且正在開始發揮作用。

And we think that will continue to be an important part of our business. So the team in Japan has done an excellent job really finding the opportunities that exist in a market where you have an aging demographic, a shrinking in the workforce and being seen as a solutions provider by not only finding great talent but creating talent at scale.

我們認為這將繼續成為我們業務的重要組成部分。因此，日本團隊做得非常出色，真正找到了人口老化、勞動力萎縮的市場中存在的機會，並透過不僅尋找優秀人才而且大規模培養人才，被視為解決方案提供者。

And that's exactly what we intend to do as we see similar trends play out both in Europe and in the U.S. through our Experis academy as well as our Manpower MyPath programs making sure that we are known as the company that has great ability to find, but also to create the need and talent for our clients, which helps us deliver the best talent in the market in time and at speed.

這正是我們打算做的，因為我們透過我們的 Experis 學院以及我們的 Manpower MyPath 計劃看到歐洲和美國也出現了類似的趨勢，確保我們被認為是一家具有強大的人才招募能力的公司，但還為我們的客戶創造需求和人才，這有助於我們及時、快速地提供市場上最優秀的人才。

And Trevor, I would just say for the first quarter guide for Japan, Japan has been running at days adjusted, just about double digits to high single digits, and we anticipate that for the first quarter, maybe closer to the very high single-digit days adjusted. So very strong outlook for the first quarter for Japan.

特雷弗（Trevor），我只想說，對於日本第一季的指導，日本的運行天數調整後，約為兩位數到高個位數，我們預計第一季可能更接近非常高的個位數天數調整。日本第一季的前景非常強勁。

Okay. That's great. And then just quickly on SG&A. I guess where do you think you are in terms of cost management. It sounds like you took some additional headcount reductions this quarter, how much room do you think you have for additional reductions, whether it be headcount or other avenues of the sluggish macro kind of continues?

好的。那太棒了。然後快速討論 SG&A。我想您認為您在成本管理方面處於什麼位置。聽起來您本季進行了一些額外的裁員，您認為您還有多少進一步裁員的空間，無論是員工數量還是宏觀經濟持續低迷的其他途徑？

Sure. I'd be happy to talk to that very quickly. So I think we feel good about the actions we've taken. We did -- we talked about the additional head count down, personnel costs are about 2/3 of our overall cost. So as we end the year, we're down 9%. We moved another 3% down in the fourth quarter. So I think we feel that we've taken the necessary actions for the most part based on the current environment. Certainly, we've talked a lot about Germany and the change in improving the trend for that business. once we conclude the Proservia here.

當然。我很樂意盡快討論這個問題。所以我認為我們對我們所採取的行動感覺很好。我們確實這麼做了——我們談到了額外的人員減少，人員成本大約占我們總成本的 2/3。因此，到年底時，我們下降了 9%。第四季我們又下調了 3%。所以我認為我們覺得我們在很大程度上已經根據當前的環境採取了必要的行動。當然，我們已經談論了很多關於德國以及改善該業務趨勢的變化。一旦我們在這裡結束了 Proservia。

But I think we feel pretty good, but at the same time, continuing to balance that. So as Jonas said, we want to be prepared for the upturn when it happens. So it's a balance, and we want to make sure we have the right sales personnel and the right producers for when that happens.

但我認為我們感覺很好，但同時，我們繼續保持平衡。因此，正如喬納斯所說，我們希望在經濟好轉發生時做好準備。所以這是一種平衡，我們希望確保在這種情況發生時我們擁有合適的銷售人員和合適的生產商。

And so we're balancing that carefully, but you did see additional cost takeout in the fourth quarter, and we expect that trend to continue into the first quarter on a trending basis.

因此，我們正在仔細平衡這一點，但您確實看到第四季度出現了額外的成本支出，我們預計這種趨勢將在趨勢基礎上持續到第一季。

The next question comes from Heather Balsky with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Heather Balsky。

You talked with the first question in the Q&A about the U.S. and some of the signs of stabilization. I'm curious if you can elaborate further which markets beyond the U.S., you kind of feel like things have stabilized. And then a little bit more color on what you're looking at to get confidence in things stabilizing just given all the macro challenges we see right now? Is it data out there? Is that what you're seeing in the underlying business through January? Is that what you're hearing from your customers? Just helpful to get your thought process.

您在問答中第一個問題談到了美國的情況以及一些穩定的跡象。我很好奇您是否可以進一步詳細說明美國以外的哪些市場，您感覺情況已經穩定下來。然後，考慮到我們現在看到的所有宏觀挑戰，您對您所關注的內容有更多的了解，以獲得對穩定局勢的信心嗎？那裡有數據嗎？這是您在一月份的基礎業務中看到的情況嗎？這是您從客戶那裡聽到的嗎？只是有助於了解您的思考過程。

Sure. Heather, I'll talk to that very quickly. So I think -- you're right. U.S. is our second biggest business. We did see that stabilize in the second half of the year. I think the other big one, #4 business for us is the U.K. U.K. went from minus 15% days adjusted to minus 13% in Q4.

當然。希瑟，我很快就會談到這個問題。所以我認為——你是對的。美國是我們的第二大業務。我們確實看到下半年情況趨於穩定。我認為我們的另一項重要業務是英國，第四季英國的天數從負 15% 調整為負 13%。

So slight improvement, seeing underlying stabilization. We expect that to continue based on the guide that we gave into the first quarter. So I'd say of the bigger markets, those are the 2 big ones that we've seen good stabilization in the second half of 2023. And as I'd say, on activity levels going into the first quarter, I will say not quite in that same camp a little bit further decline would be France and Italy, but very modest.

略有改善，看到潛在的穩定。我們預計這種情況將根據我們第一季提供的指南繼續下去。因此，我想說的是，對於較大的市場，我們在 2023 年下半年看到了良好的穩定性。正如我所說，就進入第一季的活動水平而言，我會說不會在同一陣營中，法國和義大利的跌幅會進一步下降，但幅度非常小。

So we're not talking about those markets, seeing significant pullbacks we're seeing more gradual easing. And so that's -- in our guide that takes France from the minus 4% in Q4 to minus 5 in Italy, moves from that minus 3 days adjusted to a little bit bigger of a decline into the first quarter as well.

因此，我們不是在談論這些市場，而是看到大幅回調，我們看到的是更漸進的寬鬆政策。因此，在我們的指南中，法國從第四季的負 4% 降至義大利的負 5%，第一季的跌幅也從負 3 天調整為更大一些。

So those are the main countries when I think about stabilization of the bigger countries we're in. And then to your point, I think the second part of your question was what type of data points would be good to monitor as we look at that potentially changing. I think on the Manpower businesses, manufacturing PMIs are always a pretty good read-through in terms of demand. And so I'd say continuing to look at that.

因此，當我考慮我們所在的大國的穩定性時，這些是主要的國家。然後就你的觀點而言，我認為你問題的第二部分是，當我們考慮這一點時，哪些類型的數據點適合監控潛在的改變。我認為就人力業務而言，製造業採購經理人指數在需求方面始終是個很好的解讀。所以我想說繼續關注這一點。

As we sit here today, Europe continues to be in the 43% to 44% range, so quite below the 50% in the U.S. as well. So I'd say that is important. And then I think on the professional side, it's really going to come down to Jonas' earlier comments on employer confidence with restarting IT projects and related spend. So that's going to come down to elimination of deferring projects and moving more into scheduling those projects moving forward.

當我們今天坐在這裡時，歐洲仍然處於 43% 至 44% 的範圍內，因此也遠低於美國的 50%。所以我想說這很重要。然後我認為在專業方面，這實際上取決於喬納斯先前對雇主對重啟 IT 專案和相關支出的信心的評論。因此，這將歸結為消除推遲的項目，並更多地安排這些項目向前推進。

So -- and as you mentioned earlier, some of that's going to be predicated based on overall events in the economy and interest rates and other factors that give players the confidence that we're moving into a more predictable environment.

因此，正如您之前提到的，其中一些因素將根據經濟和利率的整體事件以及其他因素來預測，這些因素讓玩家相信我們正在進入一個更可預測的環境。

That's helpful. And just as a follow-up question, it's something where BofA paying attention to is what's going on in the Red Sea and Panama Canal. I'm just curious, have your customers started talking about that at all? Is there any sense of concern? Or is it still too early?

這很有幫助。作為一個後續問題，美國銀行關注的是紅海和巴拿馬運河正在發生的事情。我只是好奇，你的客戶開始談論這件事了嗎？有沒有一絲憂慮？還是現在還太早？

Overall, I have the right say it's still a bit early. There have been well publicized circumstances around some of the automotive industry. And that is well known, and so that may have an impact. But we'll -- and primarily, in that case, from our perspective, in Germany, but other than that, I think it's a little bit early still, Heather.

總的來說，我的說法是對的，現在還為時過早。一些汽車產業的情況已經廣為人知。這是眾所周知的，因此可能會產生影響。但我們會 - 主要是，從我們的角度來看，在德國，但除此之外，我認為現在還有點早，希瑟。

We will take our last question from George Tong with Goldman Sachs.

我們將回答高盛喬治唐的最後一個問題。

The midpoint of your revenue guide points to a widening rate of constant currency decline, and you talked about weaker economic trends in Europe relative to the U.S. based on business trends you've seen so far in 1Q, can you elaborate on which regions in Europe are seeing the most amount of incremental softening in revenue?

您的收入指南的中點指向貨幣持續貶值的幅度擴大，並且您根據您在第一季迄今為止看到的商業趨勢談到了歐洲相對於美國的經濟趨勢疲軟，您能否詳細說明歐洲的哪些地區營收的增量疲軟幅度最大嗎？

Yes, George, I'd be happy to talk to that. So you're right. On a constant currency basis, we do step down from minus 5% in Q4 to minus 6%. But I would say days are a big factor in Q1. So when you adjust for billing days, we're actually running very close to the same trend. So days adjusted organic days adjusted, we were at minus 5% in Q4.

是的，喬治，我很樂意談論這個問題。所以你是對的。在固定匯率基礎上，我們確實從第四季的負 5% 下調至負 6%。但我想說，天數​​是第一季的重要因素。因此，當您調整計費天數時，我們實際上非常接近相同的趨勢。因此，調整後的自然天數調整後，我們在第四季的成長率為-5%。

And we're also at minus 5% in Q1. But there are puts and takes in that, to your point. So the way I would look at it is the rate of decline improves in the U.S., as we've talked about earlier, largely due to the fact that you start to anniversary a bit of a step down a year ago, activity levels relatively stable. And I would say the U.K., similar, I would say, similar activity levels into Q1, a little more pressure in France and Italy into Q1.

第一季的成長率也為-5%。但就你的觀點而言，其中有一些投入和投入。因此，我的看法是，正如我們之前討論的那樣，美國的下降速度有所改善，這主要是因為一年前開始週年紀念日有所下降，活動水平相對穩定。我想說的是，英國第一季的活動水準類似，法國和義大利第一季的壓力更大一些。

I think if you offset that against favorable trends in APME and LatAm, that kind of gets you to an overall days adjusted organic constant currency, in line with what we just completed. So a bit of puts and takes. And then I'd say the other area where we're seeing a little more pressure is in Northern Europe that we talked about in the Nordics and the Netherlands market that we talked about earlier on the call. But that's a bit of the rundown on the progression from Q4 to Q1.

我認為，如果您將其與 APME 和拉丁美洲的有利趨勢相抵消，那麼您將獲得整體天數調整後的有機恆定貨幣，與我們剛剛完成的一致。所以有一些投入和採取。然後我想說，我們看到壓力更大的另一個地區是我們在北歐和荷蘭市場中談到的北歐，我們之前在電話會議中談到過。但這只是從第四季到第一季進展的一些概要。

Got it. That's helpful. And you mentioned, it's difficult to pinpoint when an inflection will happen with revenue. What are the elements are there, how do you think about when operating margins will potentially inflect?

知道了。這很有幫助。您提到，很難確定收入何時會改變。其中有哪些因素，您如何看待營業利潤率何時可能會受到影響？

Yes. I would say very much in line with the revenue trend. So I think we've done a lot of work on cost actions in the second half of '23. We feel good that, that's going to work its way through in preserving margin as we go forward here. As you think about those inflection points on revenue, Perm is going to be part of the equation. We talked about RPO when hiring programs commence again, in a bigger way, we'll see -- we would expect to see more RPO activity.

是的。我想說非常符合收入趨勢。所以我認為我們在 23 年下半年在成本行動方面做了很多工作。我們感覺很好，隨著我們的前進，這將有助於保持利潤率。當你思考這些收入拐點時，彼爾姆將成為等式的一部分。當招聘計劃再次開始時，我們以更大的方式討論了 RPO，我們將看到 - 我們預計會看到更多的 RPO 活動。

The good news is we continue to have very strong global RPO clients. When demand and hiring requisitions recommence, we will see a surge in that business when that occurs. And as the operational leverage comes back into the business, you'll see us expand our EBITDA margins accordingly with that. So I would say moving very much in line with revenue trends as we move forward.

好消息是我們繼續擁有非常強大的全球 RPO 客戶。當需求和招聘申請重新開始時，我們將看到該業務的激增。隨著營運槓桿重新回到業務中，您將看到我們相應地擴大 EBITDA 利潤率。所以我想說，隨著我們的前進，我們的發展與收入趨勢非常一致。

Thanks, everyone. That brings us to the end of our earnings call for the fourth quarter. We look forward to speaking with all of you again as we report our first quarter results sometime in May. Until then. Thanks, everyone.

感謝大家。第四季財報電話會議到此結束。我們期待在五月的某個時候報告第一季業績時再次與大家交談。直到那時。感謝大家。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。