ManpowerGroup Inc (MAN) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the ManpowerGroup Third Quarter Earnings Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) This call will be recorded. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time.

歡迎參加萬寶盛華第三季度收益結果電話會議。 （操作員說明）此通話將被錄音。如果您有任何異議，請在此時斷開連接。

And now I will turn the call over to ManpowerGroup Chairman and CEO, Jonas Prising. Sir, you may begin.

現在，我將把電話轉給萬寶盛華集團董事長兼首席執行官 Jonas Prising。先生，您可以開始了。

Welcome to the third quarter conference call for 2022. Our Chief Financial Officer, Jack McGinnis is with me today. For your convenience, we have included our prepared remarks within the Investor Relations section of our website at manpowergroup.com.

歡迎參加 2022 年第三季度電話會議。我們的首席財務官 Jack McGinnis 今天與我同在。為了您的方便，我們已將我們準備好的評論包含在我們網站 manpowergroup.com 的投資者關係部分。

I will start by going through some of the highlights of the quarter, and Jack will go through the third quarter results and guidance for the fourth quarter of 2022. I will then share some concluding thoughts before we start our Q&A session, and Jack will now cover the safe harbor language.

我將首先介紹本季度的一些亮點，傑克將介紹第三季度的業績和 2022 年第四季度的指導。然後，在我們開始問答環節之前，我將分享一些結論性想法，傑克現在將涵蓋安全港語言。

Good morning, everyone. This conference call includes forward-looking statements, including statements concerning economic and geopolitical uncertainty, which are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties. These statements are based on management's current expectations or beliefs. Actual results might differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. We assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements.

大家，早安。本次電話會議包括前瞻性陳述，包括有關經濟和地緣政治不確定性的陳述，這些陳述受到已知和未知風險和不確定性的影響。這些陳述基於管理層當前的期望或信念。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中預測的結果大不相同。我們不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Slide 2 of our earnings release presentation further identifies forward-looking statements made in this call and factors that may cause our actual results to differ materially and information regarding reconciliation of non-GAAP measures.

我們的收益發布演示文稿的幻燈片 2 進一步確定了本次電話會議中所做的前瞻性陳述以及可能導致我們的實際結果出現重大差異的因素以及有關非 GAAP 措施調節的信息。

Thanks, Jack. Just last month, we brought together our top 100 ManpowerGroup global leaders for the first time since before the pandemic. We spent an energizing time with our leadership team, with global clients and thought leaders on talent shortages, customer innovation and tech disruption, providing us with an energizing outside and inside out perspective. The headline conclusion was that human capital and skill talent is at the forefront of every business leader's agenda and likely to remain so as they navigate rapid technology transformation and an uncertain economic outlook.

謝謝，傑克。就在上個月，我們首次將萬寶盛華全球 100 強領導者聚集在一起，這是自大流行之前以來的第一次。我們與領導團隊、全球客戶和思想領袖在人才短缺、客戶創新和技術顛覆方面度過了一段充滿活力的時光，為我們提供了一個充滿活力的外部和內部視角。總體結論是，人力資本和技能人才是每個企業領導者議程的最前沿，並且可能會在他們駕馭快速的技術轉型和不確定的經濟前景時繼續存在。

It would also be remiss of me here in Milwaukee this morning not to mention that our leadership event also included an inspiring contribution from the Milwaukee Bucks leadership team. They shared their growth and innovation strategy, culminating in their NBA championship a couple of years ago, and maybe another one this season, which starts tonight. Go Bucks. I'll share more on what we're hearing from our leaders and our clients a little later when I cover our perspective on the labor market. Turning to our financial results. In the third quarter, revenue was $4.8 billion, up 5% year-over-year in constant currency or 2% in organic constant currency. Our EBITDA for the quarter was $171 million, Adjusting for the U.S. acquisition integration costs, EBITA was $176 million, reflecting growth of 21% in constant currency year-over-year. Reported EBITA margin was 3.6% and adjusted EBITA margin was 3.7%. Earnings per diluted share was $2.13 on a reported basis and $2.21 on an adjusted basis. Adjusted earnings per share increased 32% year-over-year in constant currency.

我今天早上在密爾沃基這裡也是失職，更不用說我們的領導活動還包括密爾沃基雄鹿隊領導團隊的鼓舞人心的貢獻。他們分享了他們的成長和創新戰略，幾年前他們的 NBA 總冠軍達到了頂峰，也許今晚開始的本賽季又是一個。去雄鹿隊。稍後，當我介紹我們對勞動力市場的看法時，我將分享更多關於我們從領導者和客戶那裡聽到的內容。轉向我們的財務業績。第三季度，收入為 48 億美元，按固定匯率計算同比增長 5%，按有機固定匯率計算增長 2%。我們本季度的 EBITDA 為 1.71 億美元，調整美國收購整合成本後，EBITA 為 1.76 億美元，以固定匯率計算同比增長 21%。報告的 EBITA 利潤率為 3.6%，調整後的 EBITA 利潤率為 3.7%。每股攤薄收益在報告基礎上為 2.13 美元，在調整後為 2.21 美元。按固定匯率計算，調整後每股收益同比增長 32%。

What I hear from our leaders and talk to our clients, they confirm that labor markets are still holding up well despite the increasing economic headwinds. Our own quarterly forward-looking ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey and other indicators, such as historically low unemployment in Europe and better-than-expected job creation in the U.S. continue to illustrate a resilient labor market.

我從我們的領導人那裡聽到並與我們的客戶交談，他們證實，儘管經濟逆風越來越大，勞動力市場仍然保持良好狀態。我們自己的季度前瞻性萬寶盛華就業前景調查和其他指標，例如歐洲的歷史低失業率和美國創造的就業機會好於預期，繼續說明勞動力市場具有彈性。

At the same time, risks to the global economy have been growing and are having some impact on employer confidence, elevated inflation, energy prices and the Ukraine-Russia conflict remain a top concern as central banks respond with significant interest rate increases. We continue to see solid demand across our major markets today, but we know that increasing employer concerns may translate into cooling talent demand in some industries and skills ahead.

與此同時，全球經濟面臨的風險一直在增長，並對雇主信心產生一定影響，通脹上升、能源價格和烏克蘭-俄羅斯衝突仍然是人們最關心的問題，因為各國央行以大幅加息作為回應。我們今天繼續看到我們主要市場的需求強勁，但我們知道，雇主日益增加的擔憂可能會轉化為未來某些行業和技能的人才需求降溫。

We continue to see solid demand across our brands in both temporary and permanent hiring across sectors. The RPO and permanent placement market demand remains well above the pre-pandemic levels of activity, as employers continue to prioritize building the right blend of people, technology and skills for sustainable growth. The last 2 years have taught us that if we remain laser-focused on what we can control, supporting our people, servicing our clients and candidates and executing our DDI strategy, we will continue to strengthen our mix of businesses and overall competitive position.

我們繼續看到我們品牌在跨行業的臨時和長期招聘方面的強勁需求。 RPO 和永久安置市場需求仍遠高於大流行前的活動水平，因為雇主繼續優先考慮建立正確的人員、技術和技能組合以實現可持續增長。過去 2 年告訴我們，如果我們繼續專注於我們可以控制的事情、支持我們的員工、為我們的客戶和候選人提供服務並執行我們的 DDI 戰略，我們將繼續加強我們的業務組合和整體競爭地位。

To this point, our business is now more diversified than ever. (inaudible) will come back to later, and we continue to see strong demand for our higher-margin offerings. We're also beginning to reap the benefits of our technology investments. In short, we've never been more ready to navigate uncertainty and to pivot quickly to our opportunity lives. And I'll now turn it over to Jack to take you through the results.

到目前為止，我們的業務比以往任何時候都更加多元化。 （聽不清）稍後會回來，我們繼續看到對我們的高利潤率產品的強勁需求。我們也開始從我們的技術投資中獲益。簡而言之，我們從未像現在這樣準備好駕馭不確定性並迅速轉向我們的機會生活。我現在將把它交給傑克，讓你了解結果。

Thanks, Jonas. Revenues in the third quarter came in just below the midpoint of our constant currency guidance range. Gross profit margin came in above our guidance range. As adjusted, EBITA was $176 million, representing a 21% increase in constant currency from the prior year period or a 9% increase on an organic constant currency basis. As adjusted, EBITA margin was 3.7% and came in at the lower end of our guidance range, representing 50 basis points of year-over-year improvement or 20 basis points organically.

謝謝，喬納斯。第三季度的收入略低於我們不變貨幣指導範圍的中點。毛利率高於我們的指導範圍。經調整後，EBITA 為 1.76 億美元，按固定匯率計算比去年同期增長 21%，或按有機固定匯率計算增長 9%。經調整後，EBITA 利潤率為 3.7%，處於我們指導範圍的下限，同比增長 50 個基點或有機增長 20 個基點。

Due to the significant strengthening of the dollar, particularly against the EUR, year-over-year foreign currency movements continued to have a significant impact on our results. It is important to note that our businesses operate in local currencies. And as a result, foreign currency translation does not impact cash flow activity within our businesses, and the result is largely an accounting item based on reporting translation into U.S. dollars.

由於美元顯著走強，尤其是兌歐元，同比外匯走勢繼續對我們的業績產生重大影響。請務必注意，我們的業務以當地貨幣運營。因此，外幣換算不會影響我們業務中的現金流活動，其結果主要是基於報告換算成美元的會計項目。

Our currency translation drove a 12% swing between the USD reported revenue trend and the constant currency related growth rates. After adjusting for the negative impact of foreign exchange rates, our constant currency revenue increased 5%.

我們的貨幣換算推動了美元報告的收入趨勢與固定貨幣相關增長率之間的 12% 波動。調整匯率的負面影響後，我們的固定貨幣收入增長了 5%。

Due to the impact of net acquisitions, increasing revenue about 3% and slightly more billing days, the organic days adjusted revenue increase was about 2% compared to our guidance of 3% at the midpoint. The slightly lower revenue trend was a result of more modest growth than anticipated in the Manpower brand particularly in Northern Europe.

由於淨收購的影響，收入增加約 3% 和計費天數略有增加，有機天數調整後收入增加約 2%，而我們在中點的指導為 3%。收入略有下降的趨勢是萬寶盛華品牌的增長低於預期，尤其是在北歐。

Turning to the EPS Bridge. Reported earnings per share was $2.13, which included $0.08 related to the Experis U.S. acquisition integration costs. Excluding the integration costs, adjusted EPS was $2.21. Walking from our guidance midpoint, our results included a softer operational performance of $0.08, slightly lower weighted average shares due to share repurchases in the quarter, which had a positive impact of $0.02 and improved effective tax rate, which had a positive impact of $0.04, foreign currency impact that was $0.04 worse than our guidance, particularly due to the EUR and GBP weakness during the quarter and other expenses had a positive $0.04 impact.

轉向EPS橋。報告的每股收益為 2.13 美元，其中包括與 Experis 美國收購整合成本相關的 0.08 美元。不計整合成本，調整後每股收益為 2.21 美元。從我們的指導中點出發，我們的業績包括 0.08 美元的疲軟運營業績，由於本季度股票回購導致的加權平均股票略低，這產生了 0.02 美元的積極影響，以及有效稅率的提高，產生了 0.04 美元的積極影響，外幣影響比我們的指導低 0.04 美元，特別是由於本季度歐元和英鎊疲軟，其他費用產生了 0.04 美元的正影響。

Next, let's review our revenue by business line. Year-over-year, on an organic constant currency basis, the Manpower brand reported revenue growth of 1%. The Experis brand reported revenue growth of 5% and the Talent Solutions brand reported revenue growth of 10%. Within Talent Solutions, we continue to see significant revenue growth in RPO as permanent hiring trends remain strong across our key markets in the third quarter. Our MSP business saw a slight revenue decline in the quarter as we [anniversary the significant levels of revenue growth in the prior year period. While, Right Management experienced a slight revenue decline representing an improvement from the more significant decline in the second quarter. Looking at our gross profit margin in detail. Our gross margin came in at 18.3%. Staffing margin contributed a 60 basis point increase, which included strong growth in higher-margin business in Experis U.S. In addition, the Experis U.S. acquisition separately added 30 basis points. Permanent recruitment contributed a 50 basis point GP margin improvement as hiring activity continued to be strong across our largest markets. Talent Solutions contributed 10 basis points of improvement and other items represented a positive 20 basis points.

接下來，讓我們按業務線查看我們的收入。與去年同期相比，以有機不變貨幣計算，萬寶盛華品牌報告收入增長 1%。 Experis 品牌報告收入增長 5%，Talent Solutions 品牌報告收入增長 10%。在 Talent Solutions 中，我們繼續看到 RPO 的收入顯著增長，因為第三季度我們主要市場的長期招聘趨勢仍然強勁。我們的 MSP 業務在本季度出現了輕微的收入下降，因為我們 [紀念去年同期收入顯著增長的周年紀念日。同時，Right Management 的收入略有下降，較第二季度更顯著的下降有所改善。詳細查看我們的毛利率。我們的毛利率為 18.3%。人員配備利潤率貢獻了 60 個基點的增長，其中包括 Experis 美國高利潤率業務的強勁增長。此外，對 Experis 美國的收購單獨增加了 30 個基點。由於我們最大市場的招聘活動持續強勁，永久招聘使 GP 利潤率提高了 50 個基點。 Talent Solutions 貢獻了 10 個基點的改進，其他項目貢獻了 20 個基點。

Moving on to our gross profit by business line. During the quarter, Manpower brand comprised 56% of gross profit, our Experis professional business comprised 27% and Talent Solutions comprised 17%. During the quarter, our consolidated gross profit grew by 9% on an organic constant currency basis year-over-year. Our Manpower brand reported an organic constant currency gross profit increase of 6% year-over-year.

繼續按業務線計算我們的毛利潤。本季度，Manpower 品牌佔毛利潤的 56%，Experis 專業業務佔 27%，Talent Solutions 佔 17%。在本季度，我們的綜合毛利潤按有機固定貨幣計算同比增長 9%。我們的萬寶盛華品牌報告有機固定貨幣毛利潤同比增長 6%。

Organic gross profit in our Experis brand increased 14% in constant currency year-over-year. This reflects strong growth in higher-margin solutions as well as the continued strength of permanent recruitment. Organic gross profit in Talent Solutions increased 17% in constant currency year-over-year. This was driven by the strong performance in RPO discussed earlier, which was partially offset by a slight decrease in MSP as we anniversary strong growth in the prior year period and a slight decrease in Right Management.

我們的 Experis 品牌的有機毛利潤按固定匯率計算同比增長 14%。這反映了利潤率更高的解決方案的強勁增長以及長期招聘的持續實力。 Talent Solutions 的有機毛利潤按固定匯率計算同比增長 17%。這是由前面討論的 RPO 的強勁表現推動的，這部分被 MSP 的輕微下降所抵消，因為我們在上一年期間的周年強勁增長和權利管理的輕微下降。

Our SG&A expense in the quarter was $717 million. Excluding acquisition integration costs, SG&A was 14% higher on a constant currency basis and 9% higher on an organic constant currency basis. This reflects continued investment in the growth sectors of the business, primarily reflecting additional recruiters and sales personnel and Experis, RPO and in various growth opportunity markets in Manpower. The underlying increases consisted of operational costs of $62 million, incremental costs related to net acquired businesses of $33 million offset by currency changes of $74 million. Adjusted SG&A expense as a percentage of revenue represented 14.8% in the third quarter.

我們本季度的 SG&A 費用為 7.17 億美元。不計收購整合成本，SG&A 在固定貨幣基礎上增長 14%，在有機固定貨幣基礎上增長 9%。這反映了對業務增長領域的持續投資，主要反映了額外的招聘人員和銷售人員以及 Experis、RPO 以及 Manpower 的各種增長機會市場。基本增長包括運營成本 6200 萬美元，與淨收購業務相關的增量成本 3300 萬美元被 7400 萬美元的貨幣變化所抵消。第三季度調整後的 SG&A 費用佔收入的百分比為 14.8%。

The Americas segment comprised 26% of consolidated revenue. Revenue in the quarter was $1.2 billion, an increase of 27% in constant currency or 8% on an organic constant currency basis. OUP was $71 million. As adjusted, OUP was $77 million and OUP margin was 6.2%. The U.S. is the largest country in the Americas segment, comprising 72% of segment revenues. Revenue in the U.S. was $887 million, representing a 37% days adjusted increase or 7% organically compared to the prior year. As adjusted to exclude acquisition integration costs, OUP for our U.S. business was $60 million in the quarter, representing an organic increase of 14%. As adjusted, OUP margin was 6.8%. Within the U.S., the Manpower brand comprised 25% of gross profit during the quarter. Revenue for the Manpower brand in the U.S. increased 3% during the quarter, a consistent trend from the 3% growth recorded in the second quarter.

美洲部門佔合併收入的 26%。本季度收入為 12 億美元，按固定匯率計算增長 27%，按有機固定匯率計算增長 8%。 OUP 為 7100 萬美元。經調整後，OUP 為 7700 萬美元，OUP 利潤率為 6.2%。美國是美洲細分市場中最大的國家，佔細分市場收入的 72%。美國的收入為 8.87 億美元，與上一年相比，調整後的天數增長了 37% 或有機增長了 7%。排除收購整合成本後，本季度我們美國業務的 OUP 為 6000 萬美元，有機增長 14%。經調整，OUP 利潤率為 6.8%。在美國，萬寶盛華品牌佔本季度毛利潤的 25%。本季度，萬寶盛華品牌在美國的收入增長了 3%，與第二季度錄得的 3% 增長趨勢一致。

The Experis brand in the U.S. comprised 46% of gross profit in the quarter. Within Experis in the U.S., IT skills comprise approximately 90% of revenues. Experis U.S. had another very strong quarter with revenues growing 16% organically. The acquired U.S. Experis business had solid revenue growth during the quarter, and the integration is largely complete with some final activities wrapping up early in the fourth quarter.

美國的 Experis 品牌佔本季度毛利潤的 46%。在美國的 Experis，IT 技能約佔收入的 90%。 Experis 美國的另一個季度表現非常強勁，收入有機增長了 16%。被收購的美國 Experis 業務在本季度實現了穩健的收入增長，整合已基本完成，一些最終活動在第四季度初結束。

Talent Solutions in the U.S. contributed 29% of gross profit and experienced revenue growth of 6% in the quarter. This was driven by RPO as permanent hiring programs were active in the third quarter. The U.S. MSP business saw a slight revenue decline as we anniversary the significant growth in the prior year period but continued to perform well. Within Right Management, career transition activity increased as we began to anniversary record low levels of activity in the U.S. in the prior year period.

美國的 Talent Solutions 在本季度貢獻了 29% 的毛利潤，收入增長了 6%。這是由 RPO 推動的，因為第三季度的長期招聘計劃很活躍。美國 MSP 業務的收入略有下降，因為我們紀念了去年同期的顯著增長，但繼續表現良好。在 Right Management 中，隨著我們開始在上一年期間在美國創下低水平的活動記錄，職業過渡活動有所增加。

In the fourth quarter, we expect a lower rate of revenue growth as compared to the third quarter trend in the U.S., which reflects continued growth in Experis, offset by softening Manpower and Talent Solutions demand.

在第四季度，我們預計美國的收入增長率將低於第三季度的趨勢，這反映了 Experis 的持續增長，但被人力和人才解決方案需求疲軟所抵消。

Southern Europe revenue comprised 42% of consolidated revenue in the quarter. Revenue in Southern Europe came in at $2 billion, representing a 1% decrease in organic constant currency. OUP equaled $100 million and OUP margin was 4.9%.

南歐收入佔本季度綜合收入的 42%。南歐的收入為 20 億美元，按有機不變貨幣計算，下降了 1%。 OUP 等於 1 億美元，OUP 利潤率為 4.9%。

France revenue comprised 57% of the Southern Europe segment in the quarter and increased 3% in constant currency. OUP was $57 million in the quarter and OUP margin was 4.9%. Although Russia-Ukraine related supply chain disruptions continue to impact the automotive, construction and logistics sectors in France throughout the third quarter, the revenue trend stabilized with France experiencing a relatively steady and slightly better-than-expected growth rate during the quarter. We are expecting the year-over-year constant currency revenue growth rate in the fourth quarter for France to be similar to the third quarter growth rate.

本季度法國收入佔南歐部分的 57%，按固定匯率計算增長 3%。本季度 OUP 為 5700 萬美元，OUP 利潤率為 4.9%。儘管俄羅斯-烏克蘭相關的供應鏈中斷在整個第三季度繼續影響法國的汽車、建築和物流行業，但收入趨勢趨於穩定，法國在本季度經歷了相對穩定且略好於預期的增長率。我們預計法國第四季度的固定貨幣收入同比增長率將與第三季度的增長率相似。

Revenue in Italy equaled $395 million in the quarter, reflecting an increase of 3% in days adjusted constant currency. OUP equaled $29 million and OUP margin was 7.3%. As we continue to anniversary the significant revenue growth in the prior year period, we estimate that Italy will have a slightly lower constant currency revenue trend in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter.

本季度意大利的收入為 3.95 億美元，按天數調整的固定貨幣計算增長了 3%。 OUP 等於 2900 萬美元，OUP 利潤率為 7.3%。隨著我們繼續紀念去年同期的顯著收入增長，我們估計意大利第四季度的固定貨幣收入趨勢將略低於第三季度。

Our Northern Europe Segment comprised 20% of consolidated revenue in the quarter. Revenue of $954 million represented 1% decline in organic constant currency. OUP represented $13 million and OUP margin was 1.3%.

我們的北歐分部佔本季度綜合收入的 20%。收入為 9.54 億美元，按有機固定貨幣計算下降 1%。 OUP 代表 1300 萬美元，OUP 利潤率為 1.3%。

Our largest market in Northern Europe segment is the U.K., which represented 37% of segment revenues in the quarter. During the quarter, U.K. revenues decreased 4% on a constant currency basis. This includes the exit of certain low-margin arrangements, replaced with higher fee-based margin business as well as an increased exposure to resilient public sector work. We expect a slightly improved revenue trend in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter decline.

我們在北歐細分市場的最大市場是英國，佔本季度細分市場收入的 37%。本季度，英國收入按固定匯率計算下降 4%。這包括退出某些低利潤安排，取而代之的是更高的收費利潤業務，以及增加對彈性公共部門工作的敞口。與第三季度的下降相比，我們預計第四季度的收入趨勢會略有改善。

In Germany, revenues decreased 13% in constant currency in the third quarter. As we have discussed in the past, Germany remains one of our most difficult markets due to the regulations impacting management of the bench workforce the outsized impact of the automotive sector and the continued supply chain disruptions brought on from the Russia-Ukraine war. We have taken actions to improve our Germany business and are progressing various initiatives focused on business mix, and operational improvements. Overall, in the fourth quarter, we are expecting a slightly improved level of revenue decline compared to the third quarter.

在德國，第三季度按固定匯率計算的收入下降了 13%。正如我們過去所討論的，德國仍然是我們最困難的市場之一，因為法規影響了替補勞動力的管理、汽車行業的巨大影響以及俄羅斯-烏克蘭戰爭帶來的持續供應鏈中斷。我們已採取行動改善我們的德國業務，並正在推進以業務組合和運營改進為重點的各種舉措。總體而言，我們預計第四季度的收入下降水平與第三季度相比略有改善。

The Asia Pacific Middle East segment comprises 12% of total company revenue. In the quarter, revenue grew 12% in constant currency to $587 million. OUP was $24 million and OUP margin was 4%. Our largest market in the APME segment is Japan, which represented 44% of segment revenues in the quarter. Revenue in Japan grew 12% in constant currency or 11% on a days adjusted basis. We remain very pleased with the consistent performance of our Japan business, and we expect continued strong revenue growth in the fourth quarter.

亞太中東地區占公司總收入的 12%。本季度，按固定匯率計算，收入增長 12% 至 5.87 億美元。 OUP 為 2400 萬美元，OUP 利潤率為 4%。我們在 APME 細分市場中最大的市場是日本，佔本季度細分市場收入的 44%。日本的收入按固定匯率計算增長 12%，或按天數調整後增長 11%。我們仍然對我們日本業務的持續表現感到非常滿意，我們預計第四季度的收入將繼續強勁增長。

I'll now turn to cash flow and balance sheet. In the 9 months year-to-date, free cash flow equaled $233 million compared to $343 million in the prior year. In the third quarter, free cash flow was very strong and represented $254 million compared to $172 million in the prior year. At quarter end, base sales outstanding increased just under 1 day at 59 days. Capital expenditures represented $14 million during the third quarter.

我現在將轉向現金流和資產負債表。今年迄今為止的 9 個月中，自由現金流為 2.33 億美元，而去年為 3.43 億美元。第三季度，自由現金流非常強勁，為 2.54 億美元，而去年同期為 1.72 億美元。在季度末，未償基本銷售額增加了不到 1 天，達到 59 天。第三季度的資本支出為 1400 萬美元。

During the third quarter, we repurchased 1.14 million shares of stock for $85 million. As of September 30, we have 2.4 million shares remaining for repurchase under the share program approved in August of 2021.

第三季度，我們以 8500 萬美元回購了 114 萬股股票。截至 9 月 30 日，根據 2021 年 8 月批准的股票計劃，我們還有 240 萬股可供回購。

Our balance sheet ended the quarter with cash of $527 million and total debt of $896 million. Net debt equaled $369 million at quarter end. Our debt ratios at quarter end reflect total adjusted gross debt to trailing 12 months adjusted EBITA of 1.17 and total adjusted debt to total capitalization at 27%.

我們的資產負債表以 5.27 億美元的現金和 8.96 億美元的總債務結束本季度。季度末淨債務為 3.69 億美元。我們在季度末的債務比率反映了調整後總債務總額與過去 12 個月調整後 EBITA 之比為 1.17，調整後債務總額與總資本化比率為 27%。

Our debt and credit facility summary reflects the new EUR Note issuance maturing in June of 2027 at an effective interest rate of 3.514%. In accordance with the time line we communicated when we announced the U.S. Experis acquisition, we repaid the remaining $50 million, which was drawn on the revolving credit agreement during the quarter.

我們的債務和信貸安排摘要反映了新發行的歐元票據將於 2027 年 6 月到期，實際利率為 3.514%。根據我們宣布收購美國 Experis 時溝通的時間表，我們償還了本季度根據循環信貸協議提取的剩餘 5000 萬美元。

Next, I'll review our outlook for the fourth quarter of 2022. Our guidance continues to assume no material additional COVID-19 or Russia-Ukraine war-related impacts, including supply chain and energy-related disruptions in Europe beyond those that exist today. On that basis, we are forecasting underlying earnings per share for the fourth quarter to be in the range of $2.11 to $2.19, which includes an unfavorable foreign currency impact of $0.38 per share. We have disclosed our foreign currency translation rate estimates at the bottom of the guidance slide. This does not include the impact of the final portion of our projected acquisition integration costs of $3 million to $5 million, which will continue to be broken out separately from ongoing operations.

接下來，我將回顧我們對 2022 年第四季度的展望。我們的指導繼續假設除了目前存在的影響之外，沒有任何與 COVID-19 或俄羅斯-烏克蘭戰爭相關的重大額外影響，包括歐洲的供應鍊和能源相關中斷.在此基礎上，我們預測第四季度的每股基本收益將在 2.11 美元至 2.19 美元之間，其中包括每股 0.38 美元的不利外匯影響。我們在指導幻燈片的底部披露了我們的外幣兌換率估計。這不包括我們預計的 300 萬至 500 萬美元的收購整合成本的最後部分的影響，這將繼續與正在進行的運營分開。

Our constant currency revenue guidance range is between a decrease of 1% and an increase of 3% and at the midpoint represents a 1% increase. Organic days adjusted basis, as we have now anniversary the U.S. Experis acquisition, the impact of net dispositions increases the revenue growth slightly and along with a lower number of billing days, our organic constant currency growth rate represents 2% at the midpoint. This represents a stable trend from the third quarter revenue growth on the same basis.

我們的固定貨幣收入指導範圍介於 1% 和 3% 的下降之間，中間值代表 1% 的增長。有機天數調整後，由於我們現在是美國 Experis 收購週年紀念日，淨處置的影響略微增加了收入增長，並且隨著計費天數的減少，我們的有機固定貨幣增長率在中點為 2%。這代表了第三季度收入增長在相同基礎上的穩定趨勢。

We expect our EBITA margin during the fourth quarter to be up 20 basis points at the midpoint compared to the prior year. We estimate that the effective tax rate for both the fourth quarter and the full year of 2022 to be 30%. As we consider the tax rate for 2023, as part of the preliminary 2023 France budget, the French government has announced the intention to reduce the remaining French business tax, known as CVAE, by 50% in 2023.

我們預計第四季度的 EBITA 利潤率中點將比去年同期提高 20 個基點。我們估計 2022 年第四季度和全年的有效稅率均為 30%。當我們考慮 2023 年的稅率時，作為 2023 年法國初步預算的一部分，法國政府已宣布打算在 2023 年將剩餘的法國營業稅（即 CVAE）降低 50%。

The current proposal also then intends to fully abolish the remaining French business tax in 2024. If this preliminary budget provision is finalized as drafted, this initiative has the potential to reduce our global effective tax rate by approximately 1.5% in 2023, bringing our consolidated effective tax rate to 28.5% and by another 1.5% in 2024, bringing the global tax rate down to 27% at that time.

目前的提案還打算在 2024 年完全取消剩餘的法國營業稅。如果這項初步預算規定按草案最終確定，該舉措有可能在 2023 年將我們的全球有效稅率降低約 1.5%，從而使我們的綜合有效稅率降至 28.5%，2024 年再提高 1.5%，屆時全球稅率降至 27%。

We will continue to monitor any developments on this proposal, including any potential offsetting provisions and we'll provide an update on our year-end earnings call. As usual, our guidance does not incorporate restructuring charges or additional share repurchases, and we estimate our weighted average shares to be $51.7 million. I will now turn it back to Jonas.

我們將繼續關注該提案的任何進展，包括任何潛在的抵消條款，我們將在年終收益電話會議上提供最新信息。像往常一樣，我們的指導不包括重組費用或額外的股票回購，我們估計我們的加權平均股票為 5170 萬美元。我現在將它轉回給喬納斯。

Thanks, Jack. Our last call, we focused on the digitization component of our Digitized, Diversified and Innovate strategy. Today, I will share progress around our diversification. Our business mix continues to shift towards our higher-value brands with our higher-margin businesses, Experis and Talent Solutions, representing 44% of our gross profit, up from 35% in 2019. On Manpower brand, it is also seeing good opportunities to diversify towards specialized skill sets, both in Perm and temporary staffing and reflected in improved gross margins for that brand as well. Experis is a key part of our diversification strategy. And earlier this month, we celebrated 1 year since our acquisition of the ettain Group in the U.S.

謝謝，傑克。我們的最後一次電話會議，我們專注於我們的數字化、多元化和創新戰略的數字化部分。今天，我將分享我們在多元化方面取得的進展。我們的業務組合繼續轉向我們的高價值品牌，我們的利潤率更高的業務 Experis 和 Talent Solutions 占我們毛利潤的 44%，高於 2019 年的 35%。在萬寶盛華品牌方面，它也看到了很好的機會在燙髮和臨時人員配備方面向專業技能組合多樣化，並反映在該品牌的毛利率提高上。 Experis 是我們多元化戰略的關鍵部分。本月早些時候，我們慶祝了收購美國 ettain Group 的 1 週年。

We are very pleased with the excellent contributions of the team and integration into Experis strengthening our offerings in digital workspace, business transformation, enterprise applications and cloud infrastructure and Experis has provided an all-time high contribution of 27% of ManpowerGroup gross profit year-to-date. Experis is now positioned as one of the largest IT resourcing and solutions provider in both the global market and in the U.S. Those strong capabilities in the IT resourcing and solution space have also been recognized by leading industry analysts.

我們對團隊的出色貢獻以及與 Experis 的整合感到非常高興，這加強了我們在數字工作空間、業務轉型、企業應用程序和雲基礎設施方面的產品，而 Experis 為萬寶盛華集團提供了 27% 的歷史新高貢獻-日期。 Experis 現在被定位為全球市場和美國最大的 IT 資源和解決方案提供商之一。在 IT 資源和解決方案領域的強大能力也得到了領先行業分析師的認可。

Experis was recently named a leader and star performer in Everest Group's U.S. contingent staffing services PEAK Matrix Assessment, which highlight that our delivery capabilities, our proprietary AI-enabled tools that charge personalized career path for IT professionals as well as the breadth of our upskilling offerings, including Experis Career Accelerator and Experis Academy.

Experis 最近在 Everest Group 的美國特遣隊人員配備服務 PEAK Matrix Assessment 中被評為領導者和明星表現者，這突出了我們的交付能力、我們專有的人工智能工具，這些工具為 IT 專業人員提供個性化的職業道路，以及我們提供的技能提升產品的廣度，包括 Experis 職業加速器和 Experis 學院。

In addition to our leading Experis business, we continue to accelerate our diversification strategy with the growth of our Talent Solutions brand. There too, our global offerings have recently been recognized with our Talent Solutions' TAPFIN Managed Service Provider, MSP, once again achieving global leader and star performer acknowledgment in Everest Group's PEAK Matrix Assessment. This is the ninth consecutive year we've received this designation scoring highly for technology innovation, including IntelliReach, our self-service business intelligence platform that enables descriptive and predictive program performance and market data.

除了我們領先的 Experis 業務外，我們還繼續通過 Talent Solutions 品牌的發展加速我們的多元化戰略。在那裡，我們的全球產品最近也獲得了 Talent Solutions 的 TAPFIN 託管服務提供商 MSP 的認可，再次在 Everest Group 的 PEAK 矩陣評估中獲得全球領導者和明星表現者的認可。這是我們連續第九年在技術創新方面獲得高分，包括 IntelliReach，這是我們的自助式商業智能平台，可實現描述性和預測性計劃績效和市場數據。

With our diverse business mix of leading global brands, more and more companies are turning to us for our expertise to enable them to manage uncertainty, obtain operational and strategic flexibility to accelerate their digital transformation and drive workforce trends addressing societal value at scale.

憑藉我們與全球領先品牌的多元化業務組合，越來越多的公司向我們尋求我們的專業知識，使他們能夠管理不確定性，獲得運營和戰略靈活性，以加速他們的數字化轉型，並推動勞動力趨勢，以實現大規模的社會價值。

Sustainability and accelerating ESG progress continue to be a top priority for our clients and stakeholders. We are proud to have published our second annual Working to Change the World Plan in September. In short, our significant progress around our planet, people and prosperity and principles of governance. And notably, a reduction of direct emissions by 39% and our social mission progress by addressing the growing structural skill shortages.

可持續性和加速 ESG 進展仍然是我們的客戶和利益相關者的首要任務。我們很自豪能夠在 9 月發布我們的第二個年度“努力改變世界計劃”。簡而言之，我們在地球、人民和繁榮以及治理原則方面取得了重大進展。值得注意的是，直接排放量減少了 39%，我們的社會使命通過解決日益嚴重的結構性技能短缺問題取得了進展。

We are committed to leading in this space, leveraging a science-based approach, embedding ESG and our business strategy and focusing our contributions and solutions around our human capital expertise and capabilities, building on our Doing Well While Doing Good Foundation.

我們致力於在這一領域處於領先地位，利用以科學為基礎的方法，嵌入 ESG 和我們的業務戰略，並將我們的貢獻和解決方案集中在我們的人力資本專業知識和能力上，建立在我們做得好的同時做得好的基礎上。

On that note, I was pleased to expand our commitment to supporting refugees through our partnerships with Welcome U.S. and as co-host of the tenth partnership for refugees U.S. Business Summit, where we joined 40+ leading companies and committing to hire more than 22,000 refugees over the next 3 years with similar initiatives ongoing elsewhere in the world as well.

在這方面，我很高興通過與 Welcome U.S. 的合作以及作為第十屆難民合作美國商業峰會的共同主辦方來擴大我們對支持難民的承諾，我們加入了 40 多家領先的公司，並承諾僱用超過 22,000 名難民在接下來的 3 年中，世界其他地方也正在進行類似的舉措。

In closing, we see strong labor markets and continued solid demand, but we acknowledge that downside risks have significantly increased for the global economic outlook. Our experienced global leadership team knows how to have one foot on the accelerator for market opportunities and the other on the break, where there is slowing demand. And we're confident in our ability to successfully navigate whatever market changes lie ahead.

最後，我們看到強勁的勞動力市場和持續強勁的需求，但我們承認全球經濟前景的下行風險已顯著增加。我們經驗豐富的全球領導團隊知道如何一隻腳踩在加速器上尋找市場機會，另一隻腳踩在需求放緩的地方。我們對成功駕馭未來市場變化的能力充滿信心。

With that, I'd now like to open the call to Q&A. Operator?

有了這個，我現在想打開問答電話。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is coming from the line of Andrew Steinerman of JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrew Steinerman。

Good morning. This is Stephanie sitting in for Andrew. Our question is, if we have a garden variety type of recession in the U.S. in 2023, in your view, do you think labor will stay relatively tight? And if so, does that hold back a strong economic recovery post recession?

早上好。這是斯蒂芬妮坐在安德魯身邊。我們的問題是，如果我們在 2023 年美國出現花園式經濟衰退，在您看來，您認為勞動力會保持相對緊張嗎？如果是這樣，這是否會阻礙經濟衰退後強勁的經濟復甦？

Good morning, Stephanie. The labor markets in the U.S. remain very tight even at this point. And if we see some slowdown in the economy, most economies predict a loosening of this tightness, but it moves from very tight to maybe tight at 4.5% to 5% if you look at the various ranges of those estimates. And we think that, that will be enough to bring wage inflation down further from where it is today. We believe wage inflation in the U.S. has peaked earlier in the year, but it's not come down as quickly as we would have expected, and the main reason for that is the lack of supply. Workforce participation rate is still significantly lower than it was pre-pandemic. And if you were to count the influx of people into the labor market that should have occurred, that hasn't happened either. So we are having a shortfall in supply, and that's what's keeping the wage inflation and the tightness of the labor market in the U.S. at the same level.

早上好，斯蒂芬妮。即使在這一點上，美國的勞動力市場仍然非常緊張。如果我們看到經濟放緩，大多數經濟體都預測這種緊縮程度會有所放鬆，但如果您查看這些估計的各個範圍，它會從非常緊縮變為可能緊縮在 4.5% 到 5% 之間。我們認為，這足以使工資通脹從今天的水平進一步下降。我們認為美國的工資通脹在今年早些時候已經見頂，但並沒有像我們預期的那樣迅速下降，主要原因是供應不足。勞動力參與率仍顯著低於大流行前。如果你計算應該發生的湧入勞動力市場的人，那也沒有發生。因此，我們面臨供應短缺，這就是使工資通脹和美國勞動力市場緊張程度保持在同一水平的原因。

So we still think that this softening of the labor market would be a very good environment for our business as companies navigate uncertainty. They want operational strategic flexibility. So we think it is -- if that is what happens, it is something that we're well equipped to manage.

因此，我們仍然認為，隨著公司應對不確定性，勞動力市場的疲軟對我們的業務來說將是一個非常好的環境。他們需要運營戰略靈活性。所以我們認為它是 - 如果發生這種情況，那麼我們有能力管理它。

Our next question is coming from the line of Jeff Silber of BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Jeff Silber。

In the press release, you talked about taking some necessary cost actions in parts of your business that are experiencing slower market demand. I know in your prepared remarks, you talked a little bit about Germany, but I'm just wondering if this is something you're doing in any other regions. Maybe you can give us a little bit of color in terms of the type of actions you're taking.

在新聞稿中，您談到在市場需求放緩的部分業務中採取一些必要的成本措施。我知道在你準備好的發言中，你談到了一點德國，但我只是想知道這是否是你在其他地區正在做的事情。也許您可以根據您正在採取的行動類型給我們一些顏色。

Thanks for the question, Jeff. This is Jack. I'd be happy to talk to that. So really what that reflects is a bit of a balancing. So while there continue to be great opportunities and we talked a lot about Experis U.S. performance in the U.S., we're certainly investing in producers there and continuing to capture that market growth.

謝謝你的問題，傑夫。這是傑克。我很樂意與它交談。所以實際上這反映的是一種平衡。因此，儘管仍然存在巨大的機會，並且我們就 Experis U.S. 在美國的表現進行了很多討論，但我們肯定會投資那裡的生產商並繼續抓住市場增長。

On the flip side, as you know, in some of those markets, so we did note that Northern Europe was a bit softer during the quarter. We are balancing that. So where demand has softened. And certainly, you heard us talk about automotive as well. We are taking actions in those parts of the business to balance that. And as we've talked about in the past, people are about 2/3 of our overall cost. So that means making sure that we're rightsizing the workforce against those sectors that we deliver into. So we are doing that. We will continue to do that. We'll monitor the trends very closely.

另一方面，如您所知，在其中一些市場中，我們確實注意到北歐在本季度略微疲軟。我們正在平衡這一點。因此，需求疲軟的地方。當然，您也聽到我們談論汽車。我們正在業務的這些部分採取行動來平衡這一點。正如我們過去所談到的，人力約占我們總成本的 2/3。因此，這意味著確保我們針對我們交付的那些部門調整勞動力規模。所以我們正在這樣做。我們將繼續這樣做。我們將密切關注趨勢。

Now with that being said, there's still some very, very good opportunities for us in Manpower, and we're seeing that across a lot of our European markets. So acknowledging parts of the sectors that are slowing a bit, taking the actions we need to, to make sure we're balancing that appropriately with the workforce. And then also in areas where we have been investing in specializations, perm continues to be a great area of investment for us. We're seeing really good returns on as well.

話雖如此，Manpower 對我們來說仍然有一些非常非常好的機會，我們在許多歐洲市場都看到了這一點。因此，承認部分行業正在放緩，採取我們需要的行動，以確保我們與勞動力適當平衡。然後在我們一直投資於專業領域的領域，燙髮對我們來說仍然是一個很好的投資領域。我們也看到了非常好的回報。

So it will continue to be a balance in this environment that is getting a bit tricky as we see some areas of softness, but still good opportunities. So it's just getting that balance right so that we can preserve margin in the parts of the business that are seeing a bit softer trends.

因此，在這個變得有點棘手的環境中，它將繼續保持平衡，因為我們看到了一些疲軟的領域，但仍然是很好的機會。所以它只是讓這種平衡正確，這樣我們就可以在業務中看到一些疲軟趨勢的部分保持利潤。

Okay. That's really helpful. If I could shift over to capital allocation. I know M&A is not the top priority of this company, but you have done some selective M&A in the past. Are you seeing expectations from potential sellers in terms of valuation multiples come back a little bit as we've seen the correction in the public company multiples?

好的。這真的很有幫助。如果我可以轉向資本配置。我知道併購不是這家公司的重中之重，但您過去曾進行過一些選擇性併購。您是否看到潛在賣家對估值倍數的預期有所回升，因為我們已經看到上市公司倍數的修正？

I'd say, Jeff. As we've said in the past, I like the way you frame that. We prefer organic growth. It's certainly been our strength. But we -- as we showed with ettain, there are circumstances where if there is a good opportunity, and we think it's a great cultural fit, that could be a really good addition to our existing Experis business. And as we speak today, we're anniversary-ing that acquisition. It's been 12 months, and that's worked upgrade, as you heard in our prepared remarks.

我會說，傑夫。正如我們過去所說，我喜歡你構圖的方式。我們更喜歡有機增長。這當然是我們的強項。但是我們 - 正如我們在 ettain 中展示的那樣，在某些情況下，如果有一個很好的機會，並且我們認為這是一個很好的文化契合，那可能是對我們現有 Experis 業務的一個非常好的補充。正如我們今天所說，我們正在紀念這次收購。正如您在我們準備好的評論中所聽到的，已經 12 個月了，而且升級成功了。

I'd say in terms of the environment, I'd say it's probably a little too early to tell, Jeff, whether we're seeing valuation changes out there in the professional staffing market. I think if you look at the trends and if you just look at our Experis business, 16% organic growth in the U.S., holding up very, very well. So demand is still out there, it's still quite strong. So I think it's a little too early to tell whether there's going to be any significant valuation changes in that sector.

我想說就環境而言，傑夫，我想說現在說我們是否看到專業人才市場的估值變化可能還為時過早。我想如果你看看趨勢，如果你看看我們的 Experis 業務，美國 16% 的有機增長，保持得非常非常好。所以需求仍然存在，仍然相當強勁。因此，我認為現在判斷該行業的估值是否會發生重大變化還為時過早。

Our next question is from the line of Manav Patnaik of Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Manav Patnaik。

This is actually Ronan Kennedy, on for Manav. May I ask, usually uncertainty is good for temp staffing. But then on the other end of that, too much potentially could be bad. Just wanted to get your assessment as to where we are now and how we should think about the risks given the current macro backdrop and outlook?

這實際上是馬納夫的羅南肯尼迪。請問，不確定性通常對臨時人員有好處。但另一方面，太多的潛在可能是壞事。只是想了解您對我們現在所處的位置以及在當前宏觀背景和前景下我們應該如何考慮風險的評估？

The prepared remarks really covered our observations that we see continued solid demand and good growth across all of our brands in Q3, but that the macroeconomic backdrop has certainly worsened. But what you're referring to is really uncertainty in an environment of good demand is good for us. And I think our results in the third quarter and outlook into the fourth quarter really illustrates that point because we are looking into the fourth quarter with continued solid demand and expect the business to perform well and we're not really seeing any changes from what we've seen in Q3.

準備好的評論確實涵蓋了我們的觀察，即我們看到第三季度我們所有品牌的需求持續強勁且增長良好，但宏觀經濟背景肯定已經惡化。但是，您所指的是，在需求良好的環境中確實存在不確定性，這對我們有好處。我認為我們在第三季度的業績和對第四季度的展望確實說明了這一點，因為我們正在展望第四季度，需求持續穩定，並預計業務表現良好，我們並沒有真正看到與我們所做的任何變化'在第三季度見過。

Okay. And a follow-up, if I may. What kind of -- so cognizant in the comments in the prepared remarks in response to the question just now. What are leading indicators if we look out into 2023 and what is the visibility like do we expect to see? Should there be a deterioration in demand or otherwise?

好的。如果可以的話，還有後續行動。什麼樣的——在針對剛才的問題準備的評論中的評論中如此有意識。如果我們展望 2023 年，領先指標是什麼？我們期望看到的能見度如何？需求會惡化還是其他情況？

For a lot of our business, PMI is a good indicator that you can look at. And the -- whilst we've seen some softening in PMI, both in the U.S. and Europe, both of them -- both of those regions are hovering around the 50% mark, slightly below in Europe, slightly above here in the U.S. So that is an indicator one could look at.

對於我們的許多業務，PMI 是一個很好的指標，您可以查看。而且 - 雖然我們看到美國和歐洲的採購經理人指數有所走軟，但它們都在這兩個地區徘徊在 50% 左右，略低於歐洲，略高於美國。這是一個可以查看的指標。

We tend to be concurrent with the economic cycle ahead of any labor market changes. But at this point, and I emphasize at this point, there is no sign of a material slowdown in our business, as you can tell from our outlook going into the fourth quarter. We know that things can change very rapidly as we saw during the pandemic but at this point, we're not seeing any signs beyond the concerns or some hesitation on the part of some employers in some skills and/or in some market segments.

在任何勞動力市場變化之前，我們往往與經濟周期同步。但在這一點上，我在這一點上強調，我們的業務沒有實質性放緩的跡象，正如你從我們進入第四季度的展望中可以看出的那樣。我們知道，正如我們在大流行期間看到的那樣，事情可能會發生非常迅速的變化，但在這一點上，除了一些雇主在某些技能和/或某些細分市場上的擔憂或猶豫之外，我們沒有看到任何跡象。

But overall, demand remains solid, and we're not seeing any indications of a rapid downturn in our business, at least into the fourth quarter.

但總體而言，需求仍然穩固，我們沒有看到任何跡象表明我們的業務會迅速下滑，至少到第四季度是這樣。

Our next question is from the line of Mark Marcon of Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Mark Marcon。

Wanted to ask a short-term question and a long-term question. With regards to the short-term question, the guidance for Southern Europe, up 3% constant currency, Northern Europe, flat constant currency. I'm wondering, can you talk a little bit about like what the exit rates were in September and going into early October? And -- and to what extent do you have a high level of confidence that there won't be any further deterioration in some of those markets that would enable Southern Europe to continue to be up 3% or any areas that you actually might be seeing some improvement? Because as Jack knows, a lot of investors are really worried about the European macro environment.

想問一個短期問題和一個長期問題。關於短期問題，指導南歐，固定貨幣上漲3%，北歐，固定貨幣持平。我想知道，您能否談談 9 月和 10 月初的退出率？並且 - 您在多大程度上有信心相信其中一些市場不會進一步惡化，這將使南歐或您實際可能看到的任何地區繼續上漲 3%一些改進？因為正如傑克所知，很多投資者真的很擔心歐洲的宏觀環境。

Sure. I'd be happy to take that, Mark. So that's -- you're starting with the short term. And yes, I'd say on Southern Europe, to give you a little more color on how we exited the quarter, I think very much in line with the quarter overall for the most part. So starting with France, we talked about the 3% growth rate for the quarter overall. I think as we exit it really right in line with that same level of 3%.

當然。我很樂意接受，馬克。所以這就是 - 你從短期開始。是的，我想說的是南歐，為了讓你對我們如何退出本季度有更多的了解，我認為在很大程度上與整個季度非常一致。因此，從法國開始，我們談到了整個季度 3% 的增長率。我認為當我們退出時，它確實與 3% 的相同水平一致。

So -- and as we -- to your other part of the question regarding what we're seeing in October, similar trends. It's still early, but I'd say in the first half of October is running pretty much in line with what we were seeing in the second half of September. So very consistent and our guide for the fourth quarter at basically 3% for France, saying in line with the same trend from the third quarter really reflects just a stable environment.

所以 - 就像我們一樣 - 關於我們在 10 月份看到的問題的另一部分，類似的趨勢。現在還早，但我想說 10 月上半月的運行與我們在 9 月下半月看到的情況基本一致。所以非常一致，我們對法國第四季度的指導基本為 3%，與第三季度的相同趨勢一致，這確實反映了一個穩定的環境。

And as we mentioned, it really was good to see France stabilize in the third quarter. We did see a declining revenue rate in the first half of the year pretty progressively. And that stopped, which was good, and it leveled out beginning in June, which looked like the low point, and we've seen some nice increases since then. So it's been holding at that level, and that's what we're using for the guide.

正如我們所提到的，很高興看到法國在第三季度穩定下來。我們確實看到今年上半年的收入率逐漸下降。然後停止了，這很好，從 6 月開始趨於平穩，看起來像低點，從那以後我們看到了一些不錯的增長。所以它一直保持在那個水平，這就是我們用於指南的內容。

I'd say Italy, pretty similar story. I think we always know that August is a bit of a tricky month with the summer holidays. But when we look at the overall -- quarter overall, 3% was our days adjusted growth for the quarter overall, we exited the quarter maybe just a tad higher than that, which was good. And I'd say as we look into October, pretty much in line with what we guided for, just to be down slightly from the second -- third quarter level just based on the anniversary some very significant growth in the year ago period. So Italy, we feel good about Italy. It's performing well. Just anniversary-ing some very significant growth.

我會說意大利，非常相似的故事。我想我們總是知道八月是一個有點棘手的暑假月份。但是，當我們查看整體 - 整個季度時，3% 是我們調整後的整個季度的天數增長，我們退出的季度可能只比那個高一點，這很好。我想說的是，當我們展望 10 月份時，幾乎與我們的指導方針一致，只是從第二季度的水平略有下降——僅基於週年紀念日的第三季度水平，去年同期有一些非常顯著的增長。所以意大利，我們對意大利感覺很好。它表現良好。只是周年紀念一些非常顯著的增長。

So I'd say those are the 2 big businesses for us in Southern Europe that moved the needle and that would give you a bit of a color on the overall trend into the fourth quarter.

因此，我想說的是，我們在南歐的兩大企業推動了這一趨勢，這將使您對進入第四季度的整體趨勢有所了解。

Great. And then you mentioned that the U.K. might actually improve. That would be different than what a lot of people would expect over on this side of the pond. What are some of the key areas of improvement within the U.K. just to stay on the short term?

偉大的。然後你提到英國實際上可能會有所改善。這與許多人在池塘這一邊所期望的不同。短期內，英國有哪些關鍵的改進領域？

Yes. So you're right, Mark, U.K. certainly is in the headlines even this morning as we speak. I would say the item that has been a very good development in our U.K. business is the amount of public sector work the business does overall. It's about 1/3 of the book overall. As you know, that's a very resilient part of a sector to be providing into. And that's a big part of the equation for us that gives us confidence in the U.K. business. I'd say, going into the fourth quarter, seasonally, there's a good uptick in business in the U.K. as well. And as Jonas said, based on demand at the moment, that continues to be pretty strong.

是的。所以你是對的，馬克，即使在我們今天早上發言時，英國也肯定是頭條新聞。我想說在我們的英國業務中取得非常好的發展的項目是該業務整體上公共部門工作的數量。約佔全書的1/3。如您所知，這是一個非常有彈性的部分。對我們來說，這是等式的重要組成部分，讓我們對英國業務充滿信心。我想說，進入第四季度，季節性地，英國的業務也有很好的增長。正如喬納斯所說，根據目前的需求，這仍然相當強勁。

And I know there are some questions about 2023 overall. As you know, we get pretty good visibility in our order books for the next 3 months, and that's how we do our forecast for the next quarter going ahead. And I'd say on that basis, I think we feel pretty good that the U.K. will have a pretty good fourth quarter. I think the other item that's been strong in the U.K. is perm. They had a very strong quarter in the third quarter on perm recruitment as well.

而且我知道總體上有一些關於 2023 年的問題。如您所知，我們在未來 3 個月的訂單中獲得了很好的可見性，這就是我們對下一季度進行預測的方式。在此基礎上，我認為我們對英國將有一個非常好的第四季度感到非常滿意。我認為在英國表現強勁的另一個項目是燙髮。他們在第三季度的燙髮招聘方面也表現出色。

So I think on an overall basis, we feel pretty good about that. We have talked about the U.K. adjusting the book of the business a bit, and that has impacted the growth rate. And again, that's backing away from some lower-margin arrangements and replacing them with some higher-margin arrangements. And that's had a bit of an impact on the growth rate, and we expect a bit of that to start to anniversary in the fourth quarter as well.

所以我認為總的來說，我們對此感覺很好。我們已經談到英國對業務賬簿進行了一些調整，這影響了增長率。再一次，這就是放棄一些利潤率較低的安排，並用一些利潤率較高的安排取而代之。這對增長率產生了一些影響，我們預計第四季度的周年紀念日也會有一些影響。

That's great. And then a longer-term question. Between Experis and Talent Solutions becoming an ever-increasing percentage of the gross profit, the DDI initiatives. I'm wondering how should we think about it? Obviously, there's a lot of concerns from a very short-term perspective in terms of a macro downturn. But in terms of the next up cycle, how could -- how would Manpower look in terms of kind of the mix in terms of gross profit coming from some of your higher-margin areas? And then when we factor in DDI and some of the efficiency initiatives there, what are the longer-term implications as it relates to longer-term margin objectives?

那太棒了。然後是一個更長期的問題。在 Experis 和 Talent Solutions 的毛利潤中所佔比例不斷增加，DDI 的舉措。我想知道我們應該如何看待它？顯然，從非常短期的角度來看，宏觀經濟衰退存在很多擔憂。但就下一個上升週期而言，萬寶盛華將如何看待來自某些高利潤率領域的毛利潤組合？然後，當我們考慮 DDI 和那裡的一些效率舉措時，與長期利潤目標相關的長期影響是什麼？

Yes. Sure, Mark. I'd be happy to talk to that as well. So as Jonas has talked about in the prepared remarks, Experis and Talent Solutions now at 44% of our gross profit. Experis is at an all-time high at 27%. I think what that means as we go forward, and that's going to continue to impact our overall opportunity to continue to expand EBITA margin. And I think you're seeing it in the results today and the year-over-year 50 basis points EBITA margin improvement, organically 20. And I think as that business continues to grow, and if I -- even if you look at the last couple of quarters, Experis and Talent Solutions have had the highest growth overall. And we expect that to continue for Experis.

是的。當然，馬克。我也很樂意與之交談。因此，正如喬納斯在準備好的評論中所說，Experis 和 Talent Solutions 現在占我們毛利潤的 44%。 Experis 達到了 27% 的歷史新高。我認為隨著我們的前進，這意味著什麼，這將繼續影響我們繼續擴大 EBITA 利潤率的整體機會。我認為你在今天的結果中看到了這一點，EBITA 利潤率同比增長 50 個基點，有機地提高了 20 個。我認為隨著該業務的持續增長，如果我 - 即使你看過去幾個季度，Experis 和 Talent Solutions 的整體增長率最高。我們預計 Experis 將繼續這樣做。

Certainly, Experis. The market remains very strong. And is that, as they grow faster, that will continue to improve that business max.

當然，體驗。市場仍然非常強勁。就是這樣，隨著他們增長得更快，這將繼續提高業務最大值。

So -- as we go forward, you should expect that, that 44% will continue to edge up and become a bigger part of the overall pie and that will help our margins, and we'll continue to make the business more resilient as we go forward as well.

所以——隨著我們向前發展，你應該期待，44% 將繼續小幅上升並成為整體蛋糕中更大的一部分，這將有助於我們的利潤率，我們將繼續使業務更具彈性，因為我們繼續前進。

So I'd say those are some of the key aspects. You talked about DDI and technology, and we did indicate in the prepared remarks, we're starting to see some of the benefits of those. So that's been a great accomplishment for us with all of the implementations we've done of our new cloud-based power suite front office system, from substantially all the business is on it now, and we're starting to see some great benefits. So that, combined with the mix shift, we'll start to see greater and we are seeing it recruiter productivity in some of the large markets we've implemented. And that will also be a bit of a tailwind on GP margin and overall efficiency on an overall basis.

所以我想說這些是一些關鍵方面。你談到了 DDI 和技術，我們確實在準備好的評論中指出，我們開始看到這些的一些好處。因此，這對我們來說是一項了不起的成就，我們已經完成了新的基於雲的電源套件前台系統的所有實施，現在基本上所有的業務都在上面，我們開始看到一些巨大的好處。因此，結合混合轉變，我們將開始看到更大的變化，並且在我們實施的一些大型市場中，我們看到了招聘人員的生產力。這也將對 GP 利潤率和整體效率產生一些不利影響。

So all of those equate to what you should expect to be the stronger margin profile in a recovery as we come out of the downturn for the next downturn.

因此，所有這些都等同於你應該期望在我們走出低迷期迎接下一次經濟衰退時，復甦中利潤率更高的情況。

Our next question is from the line of Tobey Sommer of Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Tobey Sommer。

This is Joseph (inaudible) on for Tobey. Looks like another strong quarter for perm. I guess curious, are you seeing the perm orders holding up through October? And maybe you could frame your overall expectations for perm in the fourth quarter guide.

這是托比的約瑟夫（聽不清）。看起來像是燙髮的另一個強勁季度。我想很好奇，你看到燙髮訂單一直持續到 10 月嗎？也許你可以在第四季度指南中製定你對燙髮的總體期望。

We're still seeing good demand for perm. And we are now anniversary-ing some extremely strong prior year quarters in the third and the fourth quarter. But still, we're seeing very good perm demand coming across all of our brands. And we are expecting this to come down a little bit into the fourth quarter. But overall, the levels of demand are still well above the pre-pandemic levels. Some of the investments that we are making that Jack talked about earlier is to continue on our perm activities across the brands. So we expect to see slightly lower growth next quarter, but still very good performance for all of our perm activities.

我們仍然看到對燙髮的良好需求。我們現在正在第三季度和第四季度紀念去年一些非常強勁的季度。但是，我們仍然看到我們所有品牌的燙髮需求都非常好。我們預計這將在第四季度有所下降。但總體而言，需求水平仍遠高於大流行前的水平。傑克之前談到的我們正在進行的一些投資是繼續我們跨品牌的燙髮活動。因此，我們預計下個季度的增長會略有下降，但我們所有燙髮活動的表現仍然非常好。

And then on Experis U.S., I wanted to ask how clients are managing IT spend in the current environment. There's been some headlines around tech companies pulling in on hiring. And I was curious if you're seeing any impact there?

然後在 Experis U.S. 上，我想問一下客戶在當前環境中如何管理 IT 支出。有一些關於科技公司招聘的頭條新聞。我很好奇你是否看到那裡有任何影響？

We work with all kinds of companies. And one of the great strengths of our Experis operation here in the U.S. is a very strong presence in convenience. As you're well aware, the shortage of IT skills in the market means that the talent that leaves larger organizations is very quickly picked up by the market and smaller organization that's delighted to find more talent. So we actually think that right now, what you're reading in the headlines gets absorbed very quickly into the market because demand for IT talent is still very strong.

我們與各種公司合作。我們在美國的 Experis 業務的一大優勢是在便利性方面非常強大。如您所知，市場上 IT 技能的短缺意味著離開大型組織的人才很快被市場吸收，而小型組織則樂於找到更多人才。因此，我們實際上認為，現在，您在頭條新聞中看到的內容會很快被市場吸收，因為對 IT 人才的需求仍然非常強勁。

Our next question is from the line of Heather Balsky of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Heather Balsky。

Can you talk a little bit about your guide for 4Q with regards to the Manpower brand and you talked about slightly slower growth, I think, in the quarter. Just curious what you're seeing there?

你能談談你關於萬寶盛華品牌的第四季度指南嗎？我認為，你談到了本季度的增長略慢。只是好奇你在那裡看到了什麼？

And then a second question on Europe, just kind of the -- love to hear kind of where you're still seeing -- what industries where you're seeing strength and where you may have seen some softening in Southern Europe?

然後是關於歐洲的第二個問題，只是那種——喜歡聽到你仍然看到的那種——你看到哪些行業的實力以及你可能看到南歐的哪些行業有所減弱？

Thanks, Heather, for the question. Yes, so I'd say we don't really give guidance by brand. But what I would say is if you look at Europe, as we've talked about in the past, Europe certainly is majority Manpower business. So as you look at the guide for Europe, that's a pretty good read-through of what we're expecting.

謝謝，希瑟，這個問題。是的，所以我想說我們並沒有真正按品牌提供指導。但我想說的是，如果你看看歐洲，正如我們過去所談到的，歐洲肯定是大多數人力資源業務。因此，當您查看歐洲指南時，這是對我們期望的很好的通讀。

So I'd say on an overall basis, Southern Europe, we're looking, as we've talked about a little bit earlier, fairly stable. So France is looking stable, as we've talked about previously. And I'd say, Italy, we still feel good about Italy is still expanding associates on assignment out, but we're anniversary-ing some very large growth. So Italy had very strong OUP margin in the quarter. We expect Italy to have a very strong fourth quarter as well.

所以我想說，總體而言，南歐，我們正在尋找，正如我們之前談到的那樣，相當穩定。因此，正如我們之前談到的，法國看起來很穩定。我想說，意大利，我們仍然對意大利仍在擴大外派人員感到滿意，但我們正在慶祝一些非常大的增長。因此，意大利在本季度的 OUP 利潤率非常強勁。我們預計意大利第四季度也將非常強勁。

So I'd say on that side, that continues to look fairly stable to strength in the fourth quarter. I think on the flip side, as we've talked about -- I'd say some of the bench countries, Germany and Netherlands, there continues to be a bit more softness, and you can see that in the revenue trend. So I'd say on an overall basis, we would expect those businesses to continue to show revenue decline in the fourth quarter. But I think as we anniversary the prior year period, there's some opportunity for a slightly improved level of decline in those businesses as we get to the year-end and based on some year-end seasonal work as well.

所以我想說的是，在第四季度，這看起來仍然相當穩定。我認為另一方面，正如我們所討論的那樣 - 我會說一些替補國家，德國和荷蘭，仍然有更多的疲軟，你可以在收入趨勢中看到這一點。所以我想說，總體而言，我們預計這些業務將在第四季度繼續顯示收入下降。但我認為，隨著我們上一年的周年紀念，隨著我們到年底以及基於一些年終的季節性工作，這些業務的下降水平有一些機會略有改善。

And I think we had a good discussion on the U.K. earlier, which is a big part of Northern Europe segment overall. And we feel good about the composition of the book there with the sectors they're focused on. U.K. does not have large exposures to automotive like we have in Germany and France. So U.K., I think, has an opportunity to show slight improvement from the third quarter trend into the year-end period.

我認為我們早些時候對英國進行了很好的討論，這是整個北歐市場的重要組成部分。我們對這本書的構成以及他們關注的領域感到滿意。英國沒有像德國和法國那樣大量接觸汽車。因此，我認為英國有機會從第三季度到年底的趨勢略有改善。

So -- and maybe the last one that we haven't really talked too much about are the Nordics. And the Nordics, our 2 large businesses in the Nordics are Norway and Sweden and combined good 6% growth in the third quarter. And I'd say more of the same into the fourth quarter. Those businesses typically have a strong fourth quarter, that is making its way into the overall region overall. So you should expect mid-single-digit revenue performance from them as well.

所以——也許我們還沒有真正談論太多的最後一個是北歐人。在北歐，我們在北歐的兩大業務是挪威和瑞典，第三季度的增長率為 6%。我會在第四季度說更多相同的內容。這些業務通常在第四季度表現強勁，正在進入整個地區。因此，您也應該期待他們的中位數收入表現。

So that kind of gives you a bit of a flavor of some of the bigger European businesses with manpower exposure.

因此，這讓您對一些具有人力資源的大型歐洲企業有所了解。

Yes. I appreciate that. I guess -- and I apologize. I was curious in prior quarters, you talked a little bit about autos and construction and how those sort of verticals are trending. I was curious about that. Sorry about that.

是的。我很感激。我猜——我道歉。我在前幾個季度很好奇，你談到了汽車和建築以及這些垂直行業的趨勢。我對此很好奇。對於那個很抱歉。

So Heather, we're not seeing really any material improvement in automotive at this point. Construction is still a challenge in some of the markets across Europe. But the manufacturing demand remains solid. So there is no real change to what we've seen in this quarter and as we project into the fourth quarter.

所以Heather，我們目前在汽車領域並沒有看到任何實質性的改進。在歐洲的一些市場中，建築仍然是一個挑戰。但製造業需求依然強勁。因此，我們在本季度看到的情況並沒有真正的變化，因為我們預計到第四季度。

So the same sectors where we saw weakness in prior quarters and really that had driven the weakness all the way through the year, notably automotive in some of our markets, some logistic weakness as commercial -- sorry, as e-commerce appears to be waning somewhat compared to the pandemic that is also noticeable in some markets. But broadly speaking, most industries and segments are showing solid demand also into the fourth quarter.

因此，我們在前幾個季度看到疲軟的相同行業，實際上是導致全年疲軟的行業，尤其是我們一些市場的汽車行業，以及商業物流方面的一些疲軟——抱歉，電子商務似乎正在減弱與在某些市場也很明顯的大流行相比。但從廣義上講，大多數行業和細分市場在第四季度也表現出強勁的需求。

We will take one more question from George Tong of Goldman Sachs.

我們將再回答高盛的 George Tong 的一個問題。

Supply chain disruptions are continuing to weigh on the automotive, construction and logistics sectors in France. You mentioned a stable outlook. What factors could drive upside and downside to your stable outlook?

供應鏈中斷繼續給法國的汽車、建築和物流行業帶來壓力。你提到了穩定的前景。哪些因素可能會推動您的穩定前景上行和下行？

So there could be a number of things working in our favor should they occur. The first one, obviously, would be a cessation of hostilities between Ukraine and Russia, which seems very unlikely a significant drop in energy and food prices, which, of course, is also related to the first. So those will be clear upsides. And really the reverse of that would be the continued conflict, worsening energy and the food prices and difficulty for the central banks to get inflation rates, and we're talking about nominal inflation here down to a more manageable level fast enough. And if they don't see that happening, I'm sure that many economists are saying they will increase the rates and the risk of a hard landing becomes much greater.

因此，如果它們發生，可能會有許多對我們有利的事情。第一個顯然是烏克蘭和俄羅斯之間停止敵對行動，這似乎不太可能導致能源和食品價格大幅下降，當然這也與第一個有關。所以這些將是明顯的好處。真正與此相反的是持續的衝突、惡化的能源和食品價格以及中央銀行難以獲得通脹率，我們在這裡談論的是名義通脹足夠快地下降到一個更可控的水平。如果他們沒有看到這種情況發生，我相信許多經濟學家會說他們會提高利率，而硬著陸的風險會變得更大。

So those would be the both the opportunities, what would change the picture and what could make it worse. But I should note, though, that at this point, the labor markets are still very resilient. And all of them are below pre-pandemic levels in terms of their unemployment rates. So employers are looking for talent. They keep on hiring, and that is what you see reflected in our outlook both in our results for the third quarter as well as our outlook into the fourth quarter.

所以這些都是機會，什麼會改變情況，什麼會使情況變得更糟。但我應該指出，在這一點上，勞動力市場仍然非常有彈性。就失業率而言，他們都低於大流行前的水平。所以雇主正在尋找人才。他們繼續招聘，這就是我們在第三季度業績和第四季度展望中所看到的。

Very helpful. You mentioned that Germany is being negatively impacted by regulations affecting the management of the bench workforce. Can you discuss the regulations and quantify the impact to Manpower?

非常有幫助。您提到德國正受到影響替補勞動力管理的法規的負面影響。您能討論法規並量化對萬寶盛華的影響嗎？

We can't really quantify it, but I would say the regulations have been there for a number of years, and it just makes Germany a very complex market to navigate. We have our own issues that we're working on addressing. We have a heavy reliance on automotive, which used to be a very good sector for us, and it's now clearly a drag and has been for some time. So we need to rebalance our business mix and we're pulling all the levers you would expect us to do to turn that business around.

我們無法真正量化它，但我想說這些規定已經存在了很多年，它只是讓德國成為一個非常複雜的市場。我們有自己的問題正在努力解決。我們嚴重依賴汽車，這對我們來說曾經是一個非常好的行業，現在它顯然是一個拖累，並且已經有一段時間了。因此，我們需要重新平衡我們的業務組合，我們正在竭盡全力扭轉這一業務。

But as Jack mentioned as well, even the markets where you have bench models where the employees, the temporary staff are our permanent employees is more susceptible to higher margin pressure due to sickness, absenteeism and there as well, the legislation changes that have occurred over the past couple of years, it just makes it more challenging. It makes -- it takes us longer to turn that business around. But we have -- we have market issues, but we also have our own issues that we're addressing, and we will keep making progress on that business.

但正如傑克也提到的那樣，即使是在員工、臨時員工是我們的正式員工的市場上，由於生病、曠工以及已經發生的立法變化，也更容易受到更高的利潤壓力。在過去的幾年裡，它只是讓它更具挑戰性。它使我們需要更長的時間才能扭轉這種局面。但是我們有 - 我們有市場問題，但我們也有我們自己正在解決的問題，我們將繼續在該業務上取得進展。

Thank you. At this time, speakers, we do not have any further questions on queue.

謝謝你。目前，各位發言者，我們在隊列中沒有任何其他問題。

All right. Thanks, everyone. Thanks for all your questions, and that concludes our third quarter earnings call, and we look forward to speaking with you on our fourth quarter earnings call in a few months.

好的。感謝大家。感謝您提出所有問題，我們的第三季度財報電話會議就此結束，我們期待在幾個月後與您就第四季度財報電話會議進行交流。

Thanks, everyone.

感謝大家。

Thank you for participating in today's conference. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天的會議。您現在可以斷開連接。