藍威斯頓 (LW) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and welcome to the Lamb Weston First Quarter Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the presentation over to Mr. Dexter Congbalay, VP of Investor Relations and Strategy. Please go ahead, sir.

    美好的一天,歡迎參加 Lamb Weston 第一季財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。這次,我想把演講交給投資人關係與策略副總裁 Dexter Congbalay 先生。請繼續,先生。

  • Dexter P. Congbalay - VP of IR

    Dexter P. Congbalay - VP of IR

  • Good morning, and thank you for joining us for Lamb Weston's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. This morning, we issued our earnings press release, which is available on our website, lambweston.com.

    早安,感謝您參加 Lamb Weston 的 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。今天早上,我們發布了收益新聞稿,該新聞稿可在我們的網站 Lambweston.com 上取得。

  • Please note that during our remarks, we'll make some forward-looking statements about the company's expected performance that are based on how we see things today. Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties.

    請注意,在我們的發言中,我們將根據我們今天的看法,對公司的預期業績做出一些前瞻性陳述。由於風險和不確定性,實際結果可能存在重大差異。

  • Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in our SEC filings for more details on our forward-looking statements. Some of today's remarks include non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered a replacement for and should be read together with our GAAP results. You can find the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations in our earnings release.

    請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件中包含的警示性聲明和風險因素,以了解有關我們前瞻性聲明的更多詳細資訊。今天的一些評論包括非公認會計準則財務指標。這些非公認會計原則財務指標不應被視為替代我們的公認會計原則結果,而應與我們的公認會計原則結果一起閱讀。您可以在我們的收益報告中找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 的調整表。

  • With me today are Tom Werner, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bernadette Madarieta, our Chief Financial Officer. Tom will provide an overview of the current operating environment. Bernadette will then provide details on our first quarter results as well as our updated outlook for fiscal 2024.

    今天與我在一起的有我們的總裁兼執行長 Tom Werner;和我們的財務長 Bernadette Madarieta。 Tom 將概述目前的操作環境。然後 Bernadette 將提供有關我們第一季業績的詳細資訊以及我們對 2024 財年的最新展望。

  • With that, let me now turn the call over to Tom.

    現在讓我把電話轉給湯姆。

  • Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Dexter. Good morning, and thank you for joining our call today. We delivered a strong start to the year as we continue to execute on our strategies to drive sustainable, profitable growth. Our integration of our EMEA operations is progressing well. Our capacity expansion in China is now up and running, and our other expansion and modernization efforts around the globe remain on track.

    謝謝你,德克斯特。早安,感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。我們繼續執行推動可持續獲利成長的策略,為今年帶來了良好的開局。我們歐洲、中東和非洲業務的整合進展順利。我們在中國的產能擴張現已啟動並運行,而我們在全球的其他擴張和現代化工作仍在正常進行。

  • Our supply chain teams continue to drive productivity savings, and our commercial teams remain focused on serving our customers and driving innovation across all channels.

    我們的供應鏈團隊繼續推動生產力節省,我們的商業團隊繼續專注於為客戶提供服務並推動所有管道的創新。

  • While our volume was down versus the prior year, it was in line with our expectations and was primarily driven by our decisions to exit lower priced, lower-margin business. We should see our year-over-year volume trends improve as the year progresses as we begin to lap and backfill exited volumes with higher-margin business. Overall, we feel good about the health of the category, our first quarter financial results and our operating momentum and have raised our sales and earnings targets for the year.

    雖然我們的銷售量與前一年相比有所下降,但這符合我們的預期,主要是由於我們決定退出價格較低、利潤率較低的業務。隨著時間的推移,我們應該看到我們的同比銷售趨勢有所改善,因為我們開始用利潤率更高的業務來彌補和回填退出的銷售。總體而言,我們對該類別的健康狀況、第一季的財務表現和營運動能感到滿意,並提高了今年的銷售和獲利目標。

  • Let me now turn to the current operating environment. The global frozen potato category continues to be solid with overall demand and supply balanced. Fry attachment rates, which is a rate at which consumers order fries when visiting a restaurant or other food service outlets across our key markets, have remained largely steady and above pre-pandemic levels.

    現在讓我談談目前的運作環境。全球冷凍馬鈴薯類別持續保持穩定,整體供需平衡。薯條附著率(即消費者在我們主要市場的餐廳或其他食品服務網點時點薯條的比率)基本上保持穩定,高於大流行前的水平。

  • Restaurant traffic in our key markets was generally solid. In the U.S., overall restaurant traffic was flat versus the prior year quarter as QSR traffic growth offset further traffic declines in full-service restaurant channels. We believe that this is the cumulative effect of inflation and other macro pressures on the consumer over the past few years, favoring QSR traffic and tempering full service and casual dining traffic.

    我們主要市場的餐廳客流量普遍穩定。在美國,餐廳整體客流量與去年同期持平,因為快餐客流量的成長抵消了全方位服務餐廳通路客流量的進一步下降。我們認為,這是過去幾年通膨和其他宏觀壓力對消費者的累積效應,有利於快餐客流量,並抑制了全服務和休閒餐飲客流量。

  • While overall traffic growth did slow sequentially from about 1% in our fiscal fourth quarter as quick service restaurant traffic growth cooled. Much of that weakness was in June, and we're encouraged that both QSR and full-service restaurant traffic trends improved as the quarter progressed. In Europe, restaurant traffic grew in many of our key markets. In the U.K., traffic was up mid-single digits, with growth in both QSR and full-service restaurants.

    儘管由於速食服務餐廳客流量成長放緩,整體客流量成長確實比第四財季的 1% 左右有所放緩。大部分疲軟出現在 6 月份,隨著季度的進展,快餐店和全方位服務餐廳的客流量趨勢均有所改善,這令我們感到鼓舞。在歐洲,我們許多主要市場的餐廳客流量都在成長。在英國,隨著速食店和全方位服務餐廳的成長,客流量呈現中個位數成長。

  • Growth was also solid in France, Germany, Italy and Spain. In Asia, China restaurant traffic growth was very strong, but off depressed levels as the country rebounded from severe COVID-related restrictions. Traffic in Japan was solid in both QSR and full-service restaurants. We suspect that restaurant traffic trends will be volatile in the near term as high interest rates, high inflation and uncertainty continues to affect consumers.

    法國、德國、義大利和西班牙的成長也很強勁。在亞洲,中國餐廳的客流量成長非常強勁,但隨著該國從新冠疫情相關的嚴格限制中恢復過來,客流量已脫離低迷水平。日本的速食店和全方位服務餐廳的客流量都很穩定。我們懷疑,由於高利率、高通膨和不確定性持續影響消費者,短期內餐廳客流量趨勢將出現波動。

  • That said, frozen potato demand has proven resilient during the most challenging economic times, and we continue to be confident in the long-term growth prospects of the global category.

    也就是說,在最具挑戰性的經濟時期,冷凍馬鈴薯的需求已被證明具有彈性,我們仍然對該全球類別的長期成長前景充滿信心。

  • Now with respect to costs. We continue to expect input cost inflation in the mid- to high single digits, largely driven by higher contract prices for potatoes, including a 20% increase in North America and a 35% to 40% increase in Europe. Much of our inflation-driven pricing across our channels has either already been announced or included in price escalators within existing contracts.

    現在關於成本。我們繼續預期投入成本通膨將達到中高個位數,這主要是由於馬鈴薯合約價格上漲,其中北美上漲 20%,歐洲上漲 35% 至 40%。我們各個通路的大部分通膨驅動定價要么已經公佈,要么包含在現有合約的價格自動扶梯中。

  • Customer contracts representing about 20% of our North American business are in the process of being finalized, and we feel good in the aggregate about the likely pricing and terms. Over the long term, we continue to expect pricing actions and supply chain productivity improvements will be the primary levers to offset inflation. We'll also continue to drive improvements in product and customer mix to benefit sales growth and profitability.

    占我們北美業務約 20% 的客戶合約正在敲定過程中,總體而言,我們對可能的定價和條款感到滿意。從長遠來看,我們仍然預期定價行動和供應鏈生產力的提高將成為抵銷通膨的主要槓桿。我們也將繼續推動產品和客戶組合的改進,以有利於銷售成長和獲利能力。

  • Now with respect to the upcoming potato crop. We are harvesting and processing the crops in our growing regions in both North America and Europe. And we believe the crops in the Columbia Basin, Idaho, Alberta and the Midwest are in line with pre-pandemic historical averages.

    現在關於即將到來的馬鈴薯作物。我們在北美和歐洲的種植區收穫和加工農作物。我們相信哥倫比亞盆地、愛達荷州、艾伯塔省和中西部的農作物收成符合疫情前的歷史平均值。

  • In Europe, we believe that the crop will also be in line with historical averages as a result of improved growing conditions. We'll provide our final assessment of the crop, including how it performed out of stores when we report our second quarter results in early January.

    在歐洲,我們相信,由於生長條件的改善,產量也將符合歷史平均值。當我們在一月初報告第二季業績時,我們將提供對作物的最終評估,包括其在商店外的表現。

  • So in summary, we delivered solid results in the first quarter and continue to have good operating momentum. The overall category remains healthy with demand and supply largely balanced. And finally, at this time, we believe the potato crops in our growing regions in North America or in Europe will be in line with pre-pandemic averages.

    總而言之,我們在第一季取得了穩健的業績,並繼續保持良好的營運動能。整體品類保持健康,供需基本平衡。最後,目前我們相信北美或歐洲種植區的馬鈴薯產量將與疫情大流行前的平均值一致。

  • Let me now turn the call over to Bernadette.

    現在讓我把電話轉給伯納黛特。

  • Bernadette M. Madarieta - CFO

    Bernadette M. Madarieta - CFO

  • Thanks, Tom, and good morning, everyone. I want to start off by thanking the entire Lamb Weston team for the strong start to the year. Our performance speaks for itself, and it's a testament to the passion and dedication of our entire Lamb Weston team. We recognize that we're operating in a challenging macro environment, but the strong first quarter performance has allowed us to raise our fiscal 2024 financial targets.

    謝謝,湯姆,大家早安。首先,我要感謝整個 Lamb Weston 團隊今年的強勁開局。我們的表現不言而喻,它證明了我們整個 Lamb Weston 團隊的熱情和奉獻精神。我們認識到我們正處於充滿挑戰的宏觀環境中,但第一季的強勁表現使我們能夠提高 2024 財年的財務目標。

  • Let's start with reviewing our first quarter results. Compared with the prior year, sales increased $540 million or 48% to about $1.7 billion. About $375 million or 70% of the increase was attributable to the incremental sales from acquisitions with most coming from our EMEA business.

    讓我們先回顧一下我們第一季的業績。與前一年相比,銷售額增加了 5.4 億美元,即 48%,達到約 17 億美元。約 3.75 億美元(即成長的 70%)歸因於收購帶來的銷售額增量,其中大部分來自我們的 EMEA 業務。

  • We lapped the Argentina acquisition this quarter, but we'll continue to receive the incremental benefit from the consolidation of the EMEA operations in the second and third quarters.

    我們本季完成了對阿根廷的收購,但我們將繼續從第二季和第三季歐洲、中東和非洲業務的整合中獲得增量收益。

  • As a reminder, since we began to consolidate EMEA sales beginning in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023, those results are included in our last year's sales baseline. Excluding the incremental sales from our acquisitions, net sales grew 15%. Price/mix was up 23% as we benefited from the pricing actions taken in fiscal 2023 in both our North America and International segments to counter input and manufacturing cost inflation.

    提醒一下,由於我們從 2023 財年第四季開始合併 EMEA 銷售,這些結果已包含在我們去年的銷售基準中。剔除收購帶來的增量銷售額,淨銷售額成長了 15%。價格/組合上漲了 23%,因為我們受益於 2023 財年北美和國際部門為應對投入和製造成本通膨而採取的定價行動。

  • Mix was also favorable as we continue to strategically manage our product and customer portfolio. In addition, we estimate the price/mix in the quarter benefited by a couple of percentage points from lower-than-expected trade spending associated with pricing actions that we began implementing in the last month of fiscal 2023. This may be largely timing related, and as a result, could be a slight headwind as the year progresses.

    由於我們繼續策略性地管理我們的產品和客戶組合,混合也很有利。此外,我們估計本季的價格/組合將受益於低於預期的貿易支出幾個百分點,這些貿易支出與我們在2023 財年最後一個月開始實施的定價行動相關。這可能在很大程度上與時間有關,因此,隨著時間的推移,可能會出現輕微的阻力。

  • The trade spend benefit in the quarter, however, was mostly offset by a roughly 2-point headwind related to lower freight charges passed on to customers as transportation costs have come down from the prior year period.

    然而,本季的貿易支出收益大部分被大約 2 個百分點的逆風所抵消,該逆風與因運輸成本較上年同期下降而轉嫁給客戶的運費降低有關。

  • As a reminder, our goal is to match freight charge to our customers with our transportation costs so that their effect on our profits is neutral over time. In line with expectations, overall sales volumes declined 8%. The decline was primarily due to our decisions to exit volume related primarily to 4 of our lower priced and lower margin contracts as part of our revenue growth management initiatives and to a lesser extent, continued inventory destocking by certain customers in international markets and in select U.S. retail channels also impacted volume.

    提醒一下,我們的目標是將客戶的運費與我們的運輸成本相匹配,以便隨著時間的推移,它們對我們利潤的影響是中性的。整體銷量下降 8%,符合預期。下降的主要原因是,作為我們收入成長管理計劃的一部分,我們決定退出主要與4 個價格較低、利潤率較低的合約相關的銷量,並且在較小程度上是由於國際市場和部分美國市場的某些客戶持續去庫存。零售通路也影響了銷售量。

  • We believe the effect of these destocking actions is largely behind us and should have little impact, if any, on our results going forward. It's important to note that volume elasticities or the amount of volume lost in response to inflation-based pricing actions have been generally low. We expect our year-over-year volume trends to improve as the year progresses as we lap the volume we exited and backfill volume with higher-margin business.

    我們認為,這些去庫存行動的影響基本上已經過去,對我們未來的業績影響不大(如果有的話)。值得注意的是,成交量彈性或因通膨定價行為而造成的成交量損失普遍較低。我們預計,隨著時間的推移,我們的同比銷售趨勢將會改善,因為我們會完成退出的銷售並以利潤率更高的業務回補銷量。

  • Moving on from sales. Gross profit in the quarter, excluding comparability items, increased $213 million to $490 million. Nearly 3/4 of the increase was driven by the cumulative benefit of pricing actions, the timing of trade spending, mix improvement and supply chain productivity in our legacy Lamb Weston business, which more than offset higher input and manufacturing cost per pound and the impact of lower volumes.

    從銷售開始。不包括可比較項目的本季毛利增加了 2.13 億美元,達到 4.9 億美元。近 3/4 的成長是由我們傳統 Lamb Weston 業務中的定價行動、貿易支出時機、組合改進和供應鏈生產力的累積效益推動的,這足以抵消每磅更高的投入和製造成本以及影響較低的體積。

  • The remaining roughly 1/4 of the increase was attributable to incremental earnings from consolidating EMEA. Including the dilutive impact of the EMEA acquisition, our gross margin percentage, excluding comparability items, increased 480 basis points to 29.4%. While first quarter margins have historically been our lowest margin quarter, we estimate that the timing of trade spending that I mentioned earlier accounted for approximately 200 basis points of the increase, which would put our normalized first quarter gross margin, including acquisitions, approaching 28%.

    其餘約 1/4 的成長歸因於歐洲、中東和非洲 (EMEA) 整合帶來的增量收益。包括歐洲、中東和非洲收購的稀釋影響,我們的毛利率(不包括可比較項目)增加了 480 個基點,達到 29.4%。雖然第一季的利潤率歷來是我們利潤率最低的季度,但我們估計,我之前提到的貿易支出的時機約佔成長的200 個基點,這將使我們的第一季正常毛利率(包括收購)接近28% 。

  • Input costs continue to increase mid- to high single digits on a per pound basis. The increases were largely driven by a 20% increase in the contracted price for potatoes in North America. Higher prices for open market potatoes due to poor yields from the 2022 crop and continued increases in the cost of labor, energy and ingredients for batter coatings. The increase was partially offset by supply chain productivity savings, lower cost for edible oils and lower freight costs.

    每磅投入成本持續以中高個位數成長。上漲的主要原因是北美馬鈴薯合約價格上漲了 20%。由於 2022 年作物單產不佳以及勞動力、能源和麵糊塗層原料成本持續增加,公開市場馬鈴薯價格上漲。這一增長被供應鏈生產力的節省、食用油成本的降低和運輸成本的降低所部分抵消。

  • SG&A, excluding comparability items, increased $45 million to $160 million. More than half of the increase was from incremental SG&A with the consolidation of EMEA. The remainder was largely driven by higher expenses related to improving our IT and ERP infrastructure and to a lesser extent, higher compensation and benefit expenses and higher advertising and promotion expenses.

    SG&A(不包括可比較項目)增加了 4,500 萬美元,達到 1.6 億美元。超過一半的成長來自於歐洲、中東和非洲地區整合帶來的銷售、一般行政費用(SG&A)增加。其餘部分主要是由於與改善 IT 和 ERP 基礎設施相關的費用增加,以及較小程度的薪資和福利費用以及廣告和促銷費用的增加。

  • All of this led to adjusted EBITDA increasing 76% to $413 million. Higher sales and gross profit in the base business drove most of the growth, with the remainder attributable to incremental earnings from consolidating EMEA.

    所有這些導致調整後 EBITDA 成長 76%,達到 4.13 億美元。基礎業務銷售額和毛利的成長推動了大部分成長,其餘部分則歸因於歐洲、中東和非洲地區整合帶來的增量收益。

  • Moving to our segments. This is the first quarter that we operated in our 2 new reporting segments, North America and international. Beginning with our North America segment, which includes sales to customers in all channels in the U.S., Canada and Mexico, sales were up 19% in the quarter. Price/mix was up 24%, which was driven by the carryover benefit of pricing actions that took effect in fiscal 2023 across each of our primary sales channels, the timing of trade spending and favorable mix as we benefit from our revenue growth management initiatives. Lower freight revenue partially offset the increase.

    轉向我們的細分市場。這是我們在北美和國際兩個新報告部門營運的第一季。從我們的北美部門開始,該部門包括向美國、加拿大和墨西哥所有通路的客戶進行銷售,本季銷售額成長了 19%。價格/組合成長了 24%,這是由於 2023 財年在我們每個主要銷售管道中生效的定價行動的結轉效益、貿易支出的時機以及我們受益於收入成長管理舉措的有利組合推動的。貨運收入的下降部分抵消了這一增長。

  • Volume in North America declined 5%. This primarily reflects our decisions to exit volume related primarily to 2 lower-priced and lower-margin contracts that largely began to impact our sales in the second and third quarters of fiscal 2023. To a lesser extent, inventory destocking by certain customers and retail channels also pressured volumes. We don't anticipate further effects from the retail destocking after the first quarter.

    北美銷量下降 5%。這主要反映了我們決定退出主要與2 個價格較低、利潤率較低的合約相關的銷量,這些合約在很大程度上開始影響我們2023 財年第二和第三季的銷售。在較小程度上,某些顧客和零售通路的庫存去化成交量也受到壓力。我們預計第一季後零售去庫存不會產生進一步影響。

  • North America segment adjusted EBITDA increased $148 million to $379 million as the carryover benefit of pricing actions, the timing of trade spending and favorable mix more than offset higher cost per pound and the impact of lower volumes.

    北美部門調整後的 EBITDA 增加了 1.48 億美元,達到 3.79 億美元,因為定價行動、貿易支出時機和有利組合的結轉效益足以抵消每磅成本上升和銷售下降的影響。

  • Moving to our International segment, which includes sales to customers in all channels outside of North America. Sales grew $360 million or 212% and included $375 million of incremental sales from the EMEA and Argentina acquisitions. Excluding these acquisitions, net sales declined 9%.

    轉向我們的國際部門,其中包括向北美以外所有管道的客戶進行銷售。銷售額成長 3.6 億美元,即 212%,其中包括 EMEA 和阿根廷收購帶來的 3.75 億美元增量銷售額。排除這些收購,淨銷售額下降 9%。

  • While price/mix was up 18%, driven by the carryover benefit of pricing actions taken in fiscal 2023 as well as favorable mix, lower volume and freight revenue offset the increase. As expected, volume, excluding acquisitions, declined 27%. The decrease primarily reflects our decisions to exit 2 very low price, low margin accounts that largely began to impact our international sales volumes in our fiscal fourth quarter of 2023.

    雖然在 2023 財年採取的定價行動的結轉效益以及有利的組合的推動下,價格/組合增長了 18%,但銷量和貨運收入的下降抵消了這一增長。正如預期,不包括收購在內的銷量下降了 27%。這一下降主要反映了我們決定退出 2 個價格極低、利潤率極低的帳戶,這些帳戶在很大程度上開始影響我們 2023 財年第四季的國際銷售。

  • To a lesser extent, continued inventory destocking also impacted volumes in the quarter. But as I mentioned earlier, we believe the effect of destocking is largely over.

    在較小程度上,持續的庫存去庫存也影響了本季的銷售量。但正如我之前提到的,我們認為去庫存的影響已基本結束。

  • Despite a 27% decline in our International segment's volume, segment adjusted EBITDA increased $57 million to $90 million. Incremental earnings from the consolidation of EMEA's financial results as well as favorable price/mix drove most of the increase, more than offsetting the impact of higher cost per pound and lower volumes in our legacy Lamb Weston business.

    儘管我們的國際部門銷售量下降了 27%,但部門調整後的 EBITDA 增加了 5,700 萬美元,達到 9,000 萬美元。歐洲、中東和非洲地區財務業績整合帶來的增量收益以及有利的價格/組合推動了大部分成長,遠遠抵消了我們傳統 Lamb Weston 業務每磅成本上升和產量下降的影響。

  • Moving to our liquidity position and cash flow. We continue to maintain a solid balance sheet with ample liquidity and a low leverage ratio. We ended the quarter with more than $160 million of cash and no borrowings under our $1 billion U.S. revolver.

    轉向我們的流動性狀況和現金流。我們持續保持穩健的資產負債表、充足的流動性和較低的槓桿率。截至本季末,我們擁有超過 1.6 億美元的現金,並且 10 億美元的美國左輪手槍沒有任何借款。

  • Our net debt was about $3.3 billion, which puts our leverage ratio at 2.3x. We generated about $335 million of cash from operations or about $140 million more than the prior year quarter, largely due to the higher earnings. Capital expenditures were about $305 million, which is up about $180 million from the prior year quarter, primarily due to construction costs, as we continue to expand processing capacity in China, Idaho, Argentina and The Netherlands.

    我們的淨債務約為 33 億美元,這使得我們的槓桿率為 2.3 倍。我們從營運中產生了約 3.35 億美元的現金,比去年同期增加了約 1.4 億美元,這主要是由於收益增加。資本支出約 3.05 億美元,比去年同期增加約 1.8 億美元,主要是由於建築成本,我們繼續擴大在中國、愛達荷州、阿根廷和荷蘭的加工能力。

  • During the quarter, we returned more than $140 million of cash to our shareholders, including $41 million in dividends. Most of the cash return was from repurchasing $100 million of shares. That's more than double what we repurchased in all of 2023 as we acted opportunistically based on our stock price performance during our August open trading window.

    本季度,我們向股東返還了超過 1.4 億美元的現金,其中包括 4,100 萬美元的股息。大部分現金回報來自於回購 1 億美元的股票。這是我們在 2023 年全年回購的兩倍多,因為我們根據 8 月開放交易窗口期間的股價表現採取了機會主義行動。

  • While our share buyback program is targeted to offset annual equity compensation dilution, we will continue to be opportunistic based on other capital allocation needs and the potential for generated solid returns based on our stock's trading value.

    雖然我們的股票回購計劃的目標是抵消年度股權薪酬稀釋,但我們將繼續根據其他資本配置需求以及根據我們股票的交易價值產生穩定回報的潛力進行機會主義。

  • Turning to our updated fiscal 2024 outlook. Based on our strong first quarter performance, we raised our financial targets for the year. While we continue to expect macro operating conditions to remain challenging, the overall current demand and pricing environment remains solid. In addition, as Tom mentioned, we believe the potato crops in our growing regions in North America and Europe will be consistent with pre-pandemic historical averages. And we're generally pleased with how the discussions to renew remaining contracts are progressing in aggregate.

    轉向我們最新的 2024 財年展望。基於第一季的強勁表現,我們提高了今年的財務目標。儘管我們繼續預期宏觀經營狀況仍將充滿挑戰,但當前的整體需求和定價環境仍然穩固。此外,正如湯姆所提到的,我們相信北美和歐洲種植區的馬鈴薯產量將與疫情前的歷史平均值保持一致。我們對續簽剩餘合約的討論整體進展總體感到滿意。

  • Specifically, we continue to expect strong net sales gains for the year and have increased our annual net sales target to $6.8 billion to $7 billion, which is up from our previous target of $6.7 billion to $6.9 billion. This includes $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion of incremental sales attributable to EMEA during the first 3 quarters of the year, which is up $100 million from our previous estimate. This represents a 6.5% to 8.5% net sales growth, excluding acquisitions.

    具體來說,我們繼續預期今年的淨銷售額將強勁成長,並將年度淨銷售額目標提高至 68 億美元至 70 億美元,高於先前的 67 億美元至 69 億美元目標。其中包括今年前 3 季 EMEA 帶來的 11 億至 12 億美元的增量銷售額,比我們先前的估計增加了 1 億美元。這意味著淨銷售額成長 6.5% 至 8.5%(不包括收購)。

  • For the year, we're targeting price/mix to be up low double digits, which means that we expect price/mix will slow sequentially from the 23% increase that we delivered in the first quarter as we begin to lap some of our price actions that we began implementing in the second quarter of last year.

    今年,我們的目標是價格/組合成長兩位數,這意味著隨著我們開始調整部分價格,我們預計價格/組合將比第一季 23% 的增幅依次放緩我們從去年第二季開始實施的行動。

  • While the overall potato category continues to be solid due to the timing of contract openers, we're targeting our full year volume, excluding acquisitions, to be down mid-single digits compared with the prior year. And we expect year-over-year volume trends will continue to improve as the year progresses as we lap some of the significant low margin, low product profit volume that we chose to exit in the second half of last year, and as we gradually backfill the exited lower-margin business with more profitable business.

    雖然由於合約簽訂的時間安排,整個馬鈴薯類別繼續保持穩定,但我們的目標是全年銷售(不包括收購)比上一年下降中個位數。我們預計,隨著時間的推移,銷售量同比趨勢將繼續改善,因為我們克服了去年下半年選擇退出的一些顯著的低利潤率、低產品利潤,並且隨著我們逐漸回填退出利潤率較低的業務並獲得利潤較高的業務。

  • For earnings, we raised our adjusted EBITDA target by about $90 million to $1.54 billion to $1.62 billion, up from our previous estimate of $1.45 billion to $1.525 billion. Using the midpoint of this updated range implies growth of about 26% or about $330 million versus the prior year.

    在獲利方面,我們將調整後的 EBITDA 目標上調了約 9,000 萬美元,至 15.4 億美元至 16.2 億美元,高於我們先前估計的 14.5 億美元至 15.25 億美元。使用此更新範圍的中點意味著與上一年相比增長約 26% 或約 3.3 億美元。

  • We left our target for SG&A unchanged at $765 million to $775 million. While our first quarter run rate suggests a lower target, we continue to anticipate spending will build as the year progresses.

    我們將 SG&A 目標維持在 7.65 億美元至 7.75 億美元之間不變。雖然我們第一季的運行率顯示目標較低,但我們仍然預計支出將隨著今年的進展而增加。

  • We reduced our interest expense target by $10 million to $155 million as we expect to partially offset cash interest with more capitalized interest associated with our capacity expansion.

    我們將利息支出目標減少了 1000 萬美元,至 1.55 億美元,因為我們預計用與產能擴張相關的更多資本化利息來部分抵消現金利息。

  • Our other financial targets remain the same, including depreciation and amortization expense of approximately $325 million and capital expenditures of $800 million to $900 million.

    我們的其他財務目標保持不變,包括約 3.25 億美元的折舊和攤銷費用以及 8 億至 9 億美元的資本支出。

  • In summary, we're executing our strategies to deliver strong top and bottom line growth by improving our customer and product portfolio mix and offsetting input cost inflation through pricing actions and driving productivity savings across our supply chain. Volume elasticities in response to inflation-based pricing actions have been generally low, and we expect volume trends to improve as the year progresses.

    總而言之,我們正在執行我們的策略,透過改善我們的客戶和產品組合組合,透過定價行動抵消投入成本通膨,並推動整個供應鏈的生產力節省,從而實現強勁的收入和利潤成長。因應基於通膨的定價行為的成交量彈性普遍較低,我們預期成交量趨勢將隨著時間的推移而改善。

  • While we remain cautious about the effect of inflation on the consumer, we feel good about the start of the year and the health of the category, which gives us the confidence to raise our full year sales and earnings targets.

    雖然我們對通膨對消費者的影響保持謹慎態度,但我們對今年年初和該類別的健康狀況感到滿意,這使我們有信心提高全年銷售和獲利目標。

  • And with that, let me now turn it back over to Tom for some closing comments.

    現在,讓我把它轉回給湯姆,讓他發表一些結束語。

  • Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Bernadette. We delivered a strong quarter and our operating momentum has us well positioned to deliver another year of solid sales and earnings growth. In addition, we're confident in the health of the global category and remain committed to investing in our business to drive sustainable, profitable growth and create value for our shareholders over the long term.

    謝謝,伯納黛特。我們實現了強勁的季度業績,我們的營運勢頭使我們能夠在新的一年實現銷售和盈利的穩健增長。此外,我們對全球類別的健康發展充滿信心,並將繼續致力於投資我們的業務,以推動可持續的獲利成長,並為我們的股東長期創造價值。

  • And finally, as you may know, we will be hosting an Investor Day on Wednesday, October 11 at the New York Stock Exchange. During the presentation, we'll discuss our view of the industry, our strategies for growth and our long-term financial targets and capital allocation policies.

    最後,如您所知,我們將於 10 月 11 日星期三在紐約證券交易所舉辦投資者日。在演講過程中,我們將討論我們對產業的看法、我們的成長策略以及我們的長期財務目標和資本配置政策。

  • If you haven't already, please register if you plan on attending in-person as space is limited. Otherwise, you can view our presentation via our webcast, which you will be able to access through our website.

    如果您還沒有註冊,如果您計劃親自參加,請註冊,因為空間有限。否則,您可以透過我們的網路廣播觀看我們的演示文稿,您可以透過我們的網站存取該演示。

  • Thank you for joining us today, and now we're ready to take your questions.

    感謝您今天加入我們,現在我們準備好回答您的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And we'll take our first question from Peter Galbo with Bank of America.

    (操作員說明)我們將回答美國銀行 Peter Galbo 提出的第一個問題。

  • Peter Thomas Galbo - VP & Research Analyst

    Peter Thomas Galbo - VP & Research Analyst

  • Tom and Bernadette, thank you both very much for the color around price/mix and volume for the year. Tom, I was hoping to ask maybe a two-part question on volume. One, just maybe help us a little bit with cadence on when some of these backfill higher-margin customers potentially start to come online for you? And then, Bernadette, I know you kind of gave order of magnitude on international, but if there's anything more of a finer point on volumes between just what was intentional walk away versus the destock impact in the quarter would be helpful?

    湯姆和伯納黛特,非常感謝你們對今年價格/組合和銷售的關注。湯姆,我想問一個關於音量的問題,這個問題可能分成兩個部分。第一,也許可以幫助我們了解一些高利潤客戶何時開始為您上線?然後,伯納黛特,我知道你對國際市場給了一個數量級,但如果在故意放棄與本季度去庫存影響之間的銷量上有更多的細節,會有幫助嗎?

  • Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. So Peter, it's Tom. So as Bernadette had alluded to, it was limited to 4 accounts. And it was important for us to maintain our pricing discipline. One of the accounts in international specifically, we're losing money on. So it was time just to part ways, and that had a big impact on our international volume. So it was a measured, disciplined action we did.

    是的。彼得,是湯姆。正如伯納黛特所提到的,它僅限於 4 個帳戶。維持我們的定價紀律對我們來說很重要。特別是國際帳戶之一,我們正在虧損。所以是時候分道揚鑣了,這對我們的國際銷售產生了很大的影響。所以我們採取的行動是經過深思熟慮、有紀律的。

  • And the thing in terms of your -- the first part of your question, we have line of sight to backfilling that volume. It does take time. It's not a linear match when you walk away. Been through this before, but we have a great commercial team that has identified a number of opportunities in the market in both North America and international, and we're actively working that.

    就你問題的第一部分而言,我們有能力回填該卷。這確實需要時間。當你離開時,這不是線性匹配。以前經歷過這種情況,但我們擁有一支出色的商業團隊,他們已經在北美和國際市場上發現了許多機會,我們正在積極努力。

  • And as we stated in the prepared remarks, volume is going to be sequentially getting better over the next quarter and the back half of the year. We expect the categories -- and really it's in good shape. So between organic growth and some things that we have identified, I feel great about where we're at and how we're going to execute and continue to grow the volume in the back half of the year and over the course of the next several quarters.

    正如我們在準備好的評論中所說,下個季度和今年下半年的銷售將連續好轉。我們期待這些類別——而且確實狀況良好。因此,在有機成長和我們已經確定的一些事情之間,我對我們所處的位置以及我們將如何在今年下半年和接下來的幾年中執行並繼續增加銷售感到滿意宿舍。

  • Bernadette M. Madarieta - CFO

    Bernadette M. Madarieta - CFO

  • Yes. And Peter, just to the second question you asked that those volume exits started impacting our international sales in our fiscal fourth quarter of '23. And the business that we chose to walk away from, I'd say, about 90% of that relates to that in terms of volume decline with the remainder being the destocking.

    是的。彼得,就你問的第二個問題來說,這些銷售的退出開始影響我們 23 年第四財季的國際銷售。我想說,我們選擇放棄的業務大約 90% 與銷量下降有關,其餘的是去庫存。

  • Peter Thomas Galbo - VP & Research Analyst

    Peter Thomas Galbo - VP & Research Analyst

  • Got it. Very helpful. And then, Tom, one question I've just been getting on the crop itself. Obviously, the crop in your main regions has come in pretty well. I think there's been some issues in the East Coast Canada crop. Just curious kind of how you think that might impact the overall category here over the course of the next year in terms of industry tightness?

    知道了。很有幫助。然後,湯姆,我剛剛提出了一個關於作物本身的問題。顯然,你們主要地區的作物收成相當不錯。我認為加拿大東海岸的作物存在一些問題。只是好奇您認為這可能會如何影響明年整個類別的行業緊張程度?

  • Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, Peter, I think the crops -- and we'll have a -- as we do every January in our earnings call kind of a debrief on how we're feeling about the overall crop and storage, crops in great shape worldwide. So I don't expect any impacts in any region in terms of challenges with the crop at this point.

    是的,彼得,我認為農作物——我們將會有——就像我們每年一月在財報電話會議上所做的那樣,匯報我們對整體農作物和儲存的感受,全球農作物狀況良好。因此,我預計目前作物面臨的挑戰不會對任何地區產生任何影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll now take our next question from Tom Palmer with JPMorgan.

    現在我們將回答摩根大通湯姆·帕爾默提出的下一個問題。

  • Thomas Hinsdale Palmer - Analyst

    Thomas Hinsdale Palmer - Analyst

  • I wanted to ask on the guidance boost. I would assume some flow-through of the higher EMEA sales, but the bulk of the increase on earnings seems to be more related to the gross margin outlook. Is this mainly a reflection of pricing or a lower COGS inflation outlook? I realize there might have been some conservatism in the prior number, but just trying to understand the moving parts.

    我想問一下關於引導提升的問題。我假設歐洲、中東和非洲地區銷售額的增加會帶來一些影響,但收益成長的大部分似乎與毛利率前景更相關。這主要反映了定價還是較低的銷貨成本通膨前景?我意識到之前的數字可能有些保守,但只是想了解其中的變化部分。

  • Bernadette M. Madarieta - CFO

    Bernadette M. Madarieta - CFO

  • Yes. So we feel good about the operating momentum that we've had. It's been primarily related to pricing. And we think that those financial targets are really prudent given the macro environment that we're faced -- facing as well as just uncertainty regarding consumer health. So most of that's pricing and feel really good about the operating momentum of the business.

    是的。因此,我們對目前的營運動能感到滿意。這主要與定價有關。我們認為,考慮到我們面臨的宏觀環境以及消費者健康的不確定性,這些財務目標確實是審慎的。因此,其中大部分是定價,並且對業務的營運勢頭感到非常滿意。

  • Thomas Hinsdale Palmer - Analyst

    Thomas Hinsdale Palmer - Analyst

  • Okay. And I wanted just follow up on that gross margin piece. Traditionally, we've seen second quarter gross margin come in above first quarter, and then third quarter come in above the second quarter. Is this cadence reasonable when we think about the build for this year?

    好的。我只想跟進毛利率部分。傳統上,我們看到第二季的毛利率高於第一季度,然後第三季的毛利率高於第二季。當我們考慮今年的構建時,這種節奏合理嗎?

  • Bernadette M. Madarieta - CFO

    Bernadette M. Madarieta - CFO

  • Yes. So you're right. Typically, we do see a sequential step-up in Q2. I think we'll still see a sequential step up, but it may be more muted because we're going to be lapping some of those pricing actions that were taken last year as well as the timing of the customer trade claims that I talked about.

    是的。所以你是對的。通常情況下,我們確實會在第二季度看到連續的上升。我認為我們仍然會看到連續的上漲,但可能會更加溫和,因為我們將採用去年採取的一些定價行動以及我談到的客戶貿易索賠的時間表。

  • Dexter P. Congbalay - VP of IR

    Dexter P. Congbalay - VP of IR

  • Yes. Tom, remember that what Bernadette mentioned before, yes, we printed 29.4%. But if you take away some of the timing impacts of that trade spend, probably a little bit south of 28% as a base.

    是的。湯姆,記住伯納黛特之前提到的,是的,我們印了 29.4%。但如果剔除貿易支出的一些時間影響,可能會略低於 28% 的基數。

  • Bernadette M. Madarieta - CFO

    Bernadette M. Madarieta - CFO

  • Yes, that's right, Tom. So when I'm speaking to the step-up, I'm speaking up to more normalized 28% that I referred to.

    是的,沒錯,湯姆。因此,當我談到升級時,我指的是我提到的更標準化的 28%。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll now take our next question from Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs.

    現在我們將回答高盛的亞當·薩繆爾森提出的下一個問題。

  • Adam Samuelson - Equity Analyst

    Adam Samuelson - Equity Analyst

  • So I guess the first question is related maybe to mix. And then clearly, you're making some conscious decisions on moving away from low margin -- from some lower-margin business. But just more broadly, can you speak to maybe the -- if we try to cut your volumes between kind of more traditional straight run fries versus some of the more upgraded products in battered and coated and the like that you're now producing, can you help quantify kind of what that represents as a proportion of the business today and where that can be getting to, whether it's with some of these business exits more recently or over the next couple of years that the mix has been a very powerful margin driver for the business and trying to dimensionalize how much more (inaudible) to go?

    所以我想第一個問題可能與混合有關。很明顯,你正在做出一些有意識的決定,擺脫低利潤——擺脫一些利潤較低的業務。但更廣泛地說,您能否談談——如果我們嘗試減少您的產量,比較傳統的直炸薯條與您現在生產的一些更升級的麵糊和塗層產品以及類似產品之間的產量,您可以幫助量化當前業務所佔的比例以及其可能達到的目標,無論是最近退出的某些業務還是在未來幾年內,這種組合一直是非常強大的利潤驅動因素對於業務並試圖維度化還有多少(聽不清楚)?

  • Bernadette M. Madarieta - CFO

    Bernadette M. Madarieta - CFO

  • Yes, Adam, strong price/mix performance was the key driver of our better-than-expected financial results. As it relates to mix and how that relates to growth going forward, we'll be covering that in our industry investor call next week. And so we'll cover that more then. But again, strong price/mix was the key driver of our better-than-expected performance.

    是的,亞當,強勁的價格/組合表現是我們財務表現優於預期的關鍵驅動力。由於它與組合以及與未來成長的關係有關,我們將在下週的行業投資者電話會議中討論這一點。那我們將詳細介紹這一點。但同樣,強勁的價格/組合是我們業績優於預期的關鍵驅動因素。

  • Adam Samuelson - Equity Analyst

    Adam Samuelson - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. And then if I could just ask a second one. I know you talked about kind of customer trends in Europe. What -- the EMEA -- the acquired EMEA business, what was their organic volume growth in the quarter and the increased revenue contribution in EMEA, is that a more positive volume outlook, more positive price/mix outlook or both?

    好的。然後我是否可以問第二個。我知道您談到了歐洲的客戶趨勢。歐洲、中東和非洲地區—收購的歐洲、中東和非洲業務,該季度的有機銷量增長以及歐洲、中東和非洲地區收入貢獻的增加是更積極的銷量前景、更積極的價格/組合前景還是兩者兼而有之?

  • Bernadette M. Madarieta - CFO

    Bernadette M. Madarieta - CFO

  • Yes. So we feel really good about the EMEA performance. We have not given the prior year comp because, as you know, the EMEA sales were not reported in the prior year in our sales number. It was recorded in our equity method earnings. But our estimate is largely in line for the remainder of the year at the run rate that we saw for EMEA in Q4 and Q1 from a sales perspective of about $360 million.

    是的。因此,我們對 EMEA 的表現感到非常滿意。我們沒有給出上一年度的比較,因為如您所知,上一年度的 EMEA 銷售額並沒有在我們的銷售數據中報告。它記錄在我們的權益法收益中。但從銷售額來看,我們對 EMEA 在第四季度和第一季看到的約 3.6 億美元的運行率而言,今年剩餘時間的預測基本上一致。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll now take our next question from Matt Smith with Stifel.

    現在我們將回答 Matt Smith 和 Stifel 提出的下一個問題。

  • Matthew Edward Smith - Associate Analyst

    Matthew Edward Smith - Associate Analyst

  • I want to ask about the impact of walking away from low-margin contracts in this mix management you've been pursuing. That's weigh on volumes over the past couple of quarters. And you mentioned that the actions in the International segment and the U.S. segment will be fully lapped by the fourth quarter. So do you expect to be in a position to be growing volumes as you exit this year, meaning you've lapped those -- you've lapped the drag from walking away from those contracts and you've made some progress on the backfill with higher-margin business?

    我想問一下,在您一直追求的混合管理中,放棄低利潤合約有何影響。這對過去幾個季度的銷量造成了壓力。您提到國際部分和美國部分的行動將在第四季全面完成。那麼,當你今年退出時,你是否期望能夠增加銷量,這意味著你已經克服了這些合約——你已經克服了放棄這些合約的阻力,並且在回填方面取得了一些進展利潤更高的業務?

  • Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, Matt. I fully expect, as I said earlier, that in the back half of the year, we should start to see positive volume trends. And that's a function of lapping the exited business, but also we have line of sight to additional business that we're going to start to backfill with and it takes time. But I fully expect based on how we've got the business forecast and the opportunities we have that we're going to start seeing positive volume trends in the back half.

    是的,馬特。正如我之前所說,我完全預計在今年下半年,我們應該開始看到正面的成交量趨勢。這是完成退出業務的一個功能,但我們也看到了我們將開始回填的額外業務,這需要時間。但我完全預計,根據我們的業務預測和我們擁有的機會,我們將在下半年開始看到積極的銷售趨勢。

  • Matthew Edward Smith - Associate Analyst

    Matthew Edward Smith - Associate Analyst

  • Okay. And maybe if I could ask one more question here. You mentioned that the capacity in China came online in the quarter. Do you have any update to the timing for the American Falls facility? Is that still expected to be on time for beginning production early in 2024?

    好的。也許我可以在這裡再問一個問題。您提到中國的產能在本季上線。您對美國瀑布設施的時間安排有任何更新嗎?預計仍能在 2024 年初按時開始生產嗎?

  • Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. We still expect in the late spring of '24 early summer for American Falls to transition to a vertical startup, and it takes some time to get the plant up and running, but absolutely late spring or early summer.

    是的。我們仍然預計在 24 年春末夏初,American Falls 將過渡到垂直啟動,並且需要一些時間來讓工廠啟動並運行,但絕對是春末或初夏。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll now take our next question from Rob Dickerson with Jefferies.

    現在我們將回答 Rob Dickerson 和 Jefferies 提出的下一個問題。

  • Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

  • Rob, you might be on mute.

    羅布,你可能處於靜音狀態。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (inaudible) would you like to move on to the next (inaudible)?

    (聽不清楚)您想繼續下一個(聽不清楚)嗎?

  • Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll now move on to Robert Moskow with TD Cowen.

    現在我們將轉向羅伯特·莫斯科 (Robert Moskow) 和 TD·考恩 (TD Cowen)。

  • Robert Bain Moskow - Research Analyst

    Robert Bain Moskow - Research Analyst

  • I hate to keep the magnifying glass on volume. But Tom, when you talk about positive volume in the back half, the way we had modeled it was that the easy comparisons to the volume you walked away from really started in size in fourth and not in third. So is that correct? And if so, can we expect positive volume in third as well even though the volume walked away from may not have been as much?

    我討厭把放大鏡調到最大音量。但是湯姆,當你談論後半部的正面體積時,我們建模的方式是,與你離開的體積的簡單比較實際上是從第四個而不是第三個開始的。那麼這是正確的嗎?如果是這樣,我們是否可以預期第三名的成交量也為正,即使成交量可能沒有那麼多?

  • Bernadette M. Madarieta - CFO

    Bernadette M. Madarieta - CFO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

  • Go ahead, Bernadette.

    繼續吧,伯納黛特。

  • Bernadette M. Madarieta - CFO

    Bernadette M. Madarieta - CFO

  • As it relates to the volume in our North America segment, I think I alluded to the fact that we started to walk away from that in third and fourth quarter. In our International segment, we started to see the effect of what we exited in the fourth quarter of last year. So as we said, we do expect to see volume continue to improve, both as we lap that business we exited and as we bring on new business.

    由於它與我們北美部門的銷售有關,我想我提到了我們在第三和第四季度開始放棄這一事實。在我們的國際部門,我們開始看到去年第四季退出的影響。因此,正如我們所說,我們確實預計銷量會繼續改善,無論是我們退出的業務還是引入新業務。

  • Robert Bain Moskow - Research Analyst

    Robert Bain Moskow - Research Analyst

  • Okay. So is it premature to start dicing it up by quarter? And just -- should we just think of it as the second half? Or could we say third quarter up as well?

    好的。那麼開始按季度分割還為時過早嗎?只是——我們是否應該將其視為下半場?或者我們可以說第三季也漲了嗎?

  • Bernadette M. Madarieta - CFO

    Bernadette M. Madarieta - CFO

  • Yes. I would just think of it as the second half of the year.

    是的。我只會將其視為下半年。

  • Robert Bain Moskow - Research Analyst

    Robert Bain Moskow - Research Analyst

  • Okay. Got it. And then my other question is, even though, I was hoping you could give a little more color on like what percent of your contracts come up for renewal seasonally? And also as it relates to like -- I think a lot of the industry is on 3-year contracts instead of 1. So like how much is up for grabs in the next 3 to 6 months? Just roughly speaking, is there a way to quantify...

    好的。知道了。然後我的另一個問題是,儘管如此,我還是希望你能提供更多的信息,例如你的合約中有多少百分比需要季節性續約?而且,正如它所涉及的那樣,我認為該行業的許多公司簽訂的是 3 年期合同,而不是 1 年期合約。那麼,未來 3 到 6 個月內有多少可供爭奪?簡單來說,有沒有辦法量化...

  • Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

  • Sure, Robert, in our remarks, we got about 20% in play. We feel confident about where we're at, where we're at in those discussions, how things are progressing for us this year. So we'll get through all that over the course of the rest of this year. And at a later time, as we always do, we'll give some color on what we've got coming up in terms of contracting for our next fiscal year and how that's progressing.

    當然,羅伯特,在我們的評論中,我們的參與率約為 20%。我們對我們的進展、我們在這些討論中的進展以及今年我們的進展如何充滿信心。因此,我們將在今年剩餘時間內完成所有這些工作。稍後,正如我們往常所做的那樣,我們將介紹下一個財年的合約情況以及進展情況。

  • But right now, we're through most of it. I feel good about where we're at. Obviously, it's all baked into our guidance. We have 20% in play. We feel good about where it's at. Commercial team is executing at a high level, great discussions and more to come on that. And then the next -- like we do usually in our July call, we'll talk about what's coming up for contract renewal in the next fiscal year.

    但現在,我們已經經歷了大部分。我對我們所處的位置感覺很好。顯然,這一切都已納入我們的指導中。我們有 20% 的發揮。我們對它所處的位置感覺很好。商業團隊正在高水準執行,進行了精彩的討論,還有更多後續內容。接下來,就像我們在 7 月的電話會議中通常所做的那樣,我們將討論下一財年合約續約的情況。

  • Robert Bain Moskow - Research Analyst

    Robert Bain Moskow - Research Analyst

  • Yes. Sorry, I was on (inaudible) call. So 20% in play. And is it all kind of happen...

    是的。抱歉,我正在通話(聽不清楚)。所以20%在發揮作用。難道這一切都發生了…

  • Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

  • How did that go?

    進展如何?

  • Robert Bain Moskow - Research Analyst

    Robert Bain Moskow - Research Analyst

  • In the first -- pardon me?

    首先——請原諒我?

  • Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

  • Nothing.

    沒有什麼。

  • Dexter P. Congbalay - VP of IR

    Dexter P. Congbalay - VP of IR

  • That's fine, no problem.

    沒關係,沒問題。

  • Robert Bain Moskow - Research Analyst

    Robert Bain Moskow - Research Analyst

  • All right. Is it all in the first half? Or is it like seasonally? Or is it just like kind of spread out across the year?

    好的。都是上半場的事情嗎?還是像季節性的?或者它就像一年中分佈的那樣?

  • Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

  • Typically, it's -- we start late spring through early fall when we start the contracting discussions.

    通常,我們從春末到初秋開始進行合約討論。

  • Robert Bain Moskow - Research Analyst

    Robert Bain Moskow - Research Analyst

  • Fall. Okay. All right.

    落下。好的。好的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll now take our next question from [Johnny Samir] with Barclays.

    現在我們將回答[約翰尼·薩米爾]和巴克萊銀行提出的下一個問題。

  • Andrew Lazar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Andrew Lazar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • It's Andrew Lazar. And I joined late as well, so I apologize if some of this was covered. But I think, Tom, I remember -- I think last quarter, you started to talk a little bit about the planned sort of pivot, right, to a little bit more of a focus on profit dollars going forward as that's the way you obviously grow the business and you've had the significant margin recovery, kind of much of which has already taken place. And that kind of makes sense, right, as you think about what you're looking to do.

    我是安德魯·拉扎爾。我也加入得很晚,所以如果其中一些內容被涵蓋,我深表歉意。但我想,湯姆,我記得——我想上個季度,你開始談論一些計劃中的轉型,對吧,更多地關注未來的利潤美元,因為這顯然是你的方式發展業務,你的利潤率就會顯著恢復,其中大部分已經發生。當你思考你想要做什麼時,這是有道理的,對吧。

  • But I think there was some confusion and maybe some might have taken that to mean that as you move towards profit dollars, that somehow you were expecting sort of ongoing or structural margin erosion going forward as some of the new capacity comes online and that you'd have to sort of go after a lower-margin business somehow to fill that capacity. I was just hoping you could maybe -- and maybe you'll get into this a lot more, obviously, next week, but maybe just clarify a little bit of that because I do think there was some confusion around that. I logically understand, right, the shift now that margins have kind of recovered to much more of a profit dollar focus.

    但我認為存在一些混亂,也許有些人可能認為這意味著,當你轉向利潤美元時,不知何故,你預計隨著一些新產能的上線,你會出現持續或結構性的利潤侵蝕,並且你'我們必須以某種方式追求利潤率較低的業務來填補這一容量。我只是希望你也許可以——顯然,下週你可能會更多地討論這個問題,但也許只是澄清一點,因為我確實認為這方面存在一些混亂。我從邏輯上理解,現在利潤率已經恢復到更專注於利潤美元,這種轉變是正確的。

  • Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, Andrew, we're going to stay disciplined with our revenue growth management initiative. And so as we think about opportunities going forward, we are going to look at maintaining our margin profile, and we're going to stay disciplined. And a testament of that is our decision to walk away from some of this lower-margin business that we've been talking about. So it's all about maintaining the discipline and what we're going to focus on. We've worked really hard to rebuild our margin profile in this business. And we're going to continue to focus on that and maintain our discipline around the margin structure.

    是的,安德魯,我們將嚴格執行我們的收入成長管理計劃。因此,當我們考慮未來的機會時,我們將考慮維持我們的利潤狀況,並且我們將保持紀律。我們決定放棄我們一直在談論的一些利潤率較低的業務,就證明了這一點。因此,這一切都是為了維持紀律和我們要關注的重點。我們非常努力地重建我們在這項業務中的利潤狀況。我們將繼續關注這一點,並維持我們對利潤結構的紀律。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll now take a question from Rob Dickerson with Jefferies.

    現在我們將回答 Rob Dickerson 和 Jefferies 提出的問題。

  • Robert Frederick Dickerson - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Robert Frederick Dickerson - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • I just -- I guess a quick question for you, Tom. Just, I guess, with respect to the China plant, right, that's up and running, maybe coming back to Andrew's question a little bit, but I'll ask a different way. I'm just curious, like exiting this business back in Q4, but now you have the new facility, is there now this conversation that you've been having and now can be activated kind of with the sales force such that you say, okay, there's opportunity here, right, (inaudible), is off -- maybe off a lower base, but still up. There's not real demand destruction going forward. It sounds like really expected such that, that sales force can actually go try to take material share, let's say, even non-U.S. market, just kind of given the new facility? First question.

    我只是——我想問你一個簡單的問題,湯姆。只是,我想,就中國工廠而言,對,它已經啟動並正在運行,也許稍微回到安德魯的問題上,但我會以不同的方式問。我只是很好奇,就像在第四季度退出這項業務一樣,但現在你有了新設施,現在是否有你一直在進行的對話,現在可以與銷售人員進行某種程度的對話,這樣你就可以說,好吧,這裡有機會,對吧,(聽不清楚),已經關閉了——也許基數較低,但仍然上升。未來不會出現真正的需求破壞。聽起來確實是預期的那樣,銷售人員實際上可以嘗試獲取物質份額,比方說,即使是非美國市場,只要有了新設施?第一個問題。

  • Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. So the China facility, we're in early stages of our startup. So it takes some time to get it up and running. We are running production there today. It's going to be specifically targeted for that market. And we've got things identified in the China market from an opportunity and business standpoint, but it takes some time to get the plant up and running and efficient and kind of work the kinks out, but we're early on. So it's going to be several more quarters before we see the impact of that coming online.

    是的。因此,我們的中國工廠正處於啟動的早期階段。因此,需要一些時間來啟動並運行它。我們今天在那裡進行生產。它將專門針對該市場。從機會和商業的角度來看,我們已經在中國市場上找到了一些東西,但需要一些時間才能讓工廠啟動並運行,並有效率地解決問題,但我們仍處於早期階段。因此,我們還需要幾個季度才能看到它的影響。

  • Robert Frederick Dickerson - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Robert Frederick Dickerson - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • All right. Fair enough. And then I just think you said (inaudible) traffic was up, I believe, mid-single digit in Europe that was QSRs, but I know traffic was up in Europe. It sounds like better than the U.S. Maybe just any kind of general perspective as to why that might be the case kind of market -- the market?

    好的。很公平。然後我想你說(聽不清楚)流量增加了,我相信,歐洲的 QSR 流量增加了中個位數,但我知道歐洲的流量增加了。這聽起來比美國好。也許只是從整體角度來解釋為什麼市場會出現這種情況——市場?

  • Dexter P. Congbalay - VP of IR

    Dexter P. Congbalay - VP of IR

  • Rob, it's probably a little bit of -- might have a little bit of softness last year just as coming out of COVID and everything like that. But overall, trends seem to be pretty good. I think, with inflation still a factor, but it's cooling or at least a little bit better than what we were expecting, at least from the energy cost standpoint. So I think it was just disposable income helping traffic generate or we're holding that pretty well.

    羅布,去年可能會有點疲軟,就像新冠疫情之類的事情一樣。但總體而言,趨勢似乎相當不錯。我認為,通貨膨脹仍然是一個因素,但它正在降溫,或至少比我們的預期好一點,至少從能源成本的角度來看。所以我認為這只是可支配收入幫助產生流量或我們保持得很好。

  • Robert Frederick Dickerson - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Robert Frederick Dickerson - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • All right. Great. And then just quickly, the harvest coming in line with historic averages coming off 2 bad years. Maybe just as a reminder, kind of when we start to see that 35% of COGS maybe starts to (inaudible) or, let's call it, deflate year-over-year? It sounds like that might be what like a back half fiscal '25 dynamic?

    好的。偉大的。很快,收成就擺脫了兩年歉收的年份,達到了歷史平均。也許只是提醒一下,當我們開始看到 35% 的銷貨成本可能開始(聽不清楚)或我們稱之為逐年收縮時?聽起來這可能是 25 財年後半段的動態?

  • Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, Rob. So just a reminder, our cost and contract raw input structure is baked. So wherever the crop yields and all that comes out, it really isn't going to impact our overall input costs for the balance of this fiscal year. So it's -- you're not going to see any decline in our cost structure because the crop is great. It's just -- we agreed to a contract last -- a year ago, and it is what it is.

    是的,羅布。所以提醒一下,我們的成本和合約原始投入結構已經確定。因此,無論農作物產量如何,它都不會影響我們本財年剩餘時間的整體投入成本。所以,你不會看到我們的成本結構有任何下降,因為產量很好。只是——我們去年同意了一份合約——一年前,事情就是這樣。

  • Bernadette M. Madarieta - CFO

    Bernadette M. Madarieta - CFO

  • Yes, I think that's right, Tom. The only piece that's different in the European market is that generally will contract for about 75%, whereas there's the open market for the remaining 25% than we've seen of late that feel the market prices have started to come down.

    是的,我認為是對的,湯姆。歐洲市場唯一不同的是,通常會收縮約 75%,而開放市場的剩餘 25% 比我們最近看到的感覺市場價格已經開始下降。

  • Robert Frederick Dickerson - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Robert Frederick Dickerson - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Right. But we're -- I'm thinking all the way forward to, let's say, the end of back half of next fiscal year, right? I'm assuming as we go into contract negotiations towards the end of this calendar year, right, harvest is good this year, probably puts you in a pretty good position in those discussions.

    正確的。但我們——我一直在思考,比如說,下一個財政年度後半段結束,對嗎?我假設當我們在今年年底進行合約談判時,今年的收成很好,可能會讓你在這些討論中處於一個非常有利的位置。

  • Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

  • We're not going to comment on negotiating discussions publicly. We don't do that, and it will be -- we'll let it play out the way it plays out, and we'll be disciplined in the process we follow every year. And at the appropriate time, when we come to some agreement, as we always do and the market knows, you'll see what our raw price is going to be for the next year.

    我們不會對公開的談判討論發表評論。我們不會這樣做,而且將會是——我們會讓事情按照它發生的方式進行,我們將在每年遵循的過程中受到紀律處分。在適當的時候,當我們達成某種協議時,就像我們一直在做的那樣,市場也知道,你會看到我們明年的原料價格是多少。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) We'll now take a question from William Reuter with Bank of America.

    (操作員說明)我們現在將回答美國銀行 William Reuter 的問題。

  • William Michael Reuter - MD & Research Analyst

    William Michael Reuter - MD & Research Analyst

  • Just quickly to make sure on the last question. You contracts were 75% in Europe, but that's 100% in North America. Is that right?

    快速確定最後一個問題。歐洲的合約率為 75%,但北美的合約率為 100%。是對的嗎?

  • Bernadette M. Madarieta - CFO

    Bernadette M. Madarieta - CFO

  • That's correct.

    這是正確的。

  • William Michael Reuter - MD & Research Analyst

    William Michael Reuter - MD & Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then, Bernadette, you have 20% of your contracts that are up for renewal. How does that compare to where you would have been last year or in a typical year?

    好的。然後,伯納黛特,你有 20% 的合約需要續約。與去年或往年相比,情況如何?

  • Bernadette M. Madarieta - CFO

    Bernadette M. Madarieta - CFO

  • Yes. Typically, we have about 25% up for renewal, so slightly down, but around average.

    是的。通常情況下,我們有大約 25% 的續約費用,因此略有下降,但約為平均值。

  • William Michael Reuter - MD & Research Analyst

    William Michael Reuter - MD & Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then just lastly for me is the elevated CapEx of $800 million to $900 million, how should we think about that CapEx number over the next handful of years?

    好的。最後對我來說,資本支出增加了 8 億至 9 億美元,我們該如何考慮未來幾年的資本支出數字?

  • Bernadette M. Madarieta - CFO

    Bernadette M. Madarieta - CFO

  • Yes. So CapEx fluctuates year-to-year. As we've discussed in the past, we had a pent-up demand after COVID, where we've had a couple of years of higher spending. I'm going to speak more to that during Investor Day in terms of how to think about that over the next few years. So I'll go ahead and leave it for Investor Day.

    是的。因此,資本支出每年都會波動。正如我們過去所討論的,新冠疫情之後,我們的需求被壓抑了,我們的支出已經連續幾年增加。我將在投資者日期間更多地談論如何思考未來幾年的問題。所以我會繼續把它留到投資者日。

  • William Michael Reuter - MD & Research Analyst

    William Michael Reuter - MD & Research Analyst

  • I assume that might have been the answer.

    我想這可能就是答案。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And that does conclude our question-and-answer session. I'd like to hand the conference back over to Mr. Congbalay for any additional or closing comments.

    我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交回給 Congbalay 先生,徵求任何補充意見或結束意見。

  • Dexter P. Congbalay - VP of IR

    Dexter P. Congbalay - VP of IR

  • Thanks for joining the call today. If you do plan on or want to come to our Investor Day, please shoot me an e-mail and I can send you the invite if you haven't gotten it already. If you do -- if you have gotten it and you do want to attend, since it's at the New York Stock Exchange, you do have to register in advance so you can put you on the list to get in. Any questions on the call today or kind of going forward, shoot me a note we can set up some time. But again, thanks for joining the call, and we'll talk to you next week.

    感謝您今天加入通話。如果您計劃或想要參加我們的投資者日,請給我發一封電子郵件,如果您還沒有收到邀請,我可以向您發送邀請。如果您這樣做——如果您已經收到並且確實想參加,因為它是在紐約證券交易所舉行的,所以您必須提前註冊,以便您可以將您列入入場名單中。如有任何疑問,請致電今天或以後,請給我留言,我們可以安排一個時間。但再次感謝您加入電話會議,我們將在下週與您交談。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And once again, that does conclude today's conference. We thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.

    今天的會議再次結束。我們感謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。