藍威斯頓 (LW) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Lamb Weston Third Quarter Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Dexter Congbalay. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Lamb Weston 第三季財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。此時，我想將電話轉給 Dexter Congbalay。請繼續。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for Lamb Weston's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. This morning, we issued our earnings press release, which is available on our website, lambweston.com. Please note that during our remarks, we'll make some forward-looking statements about the company's expected performance that are based on how we see things today. Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in our SEC filings for more details on our forward-looking statements.

早安，感謝您參加 Lamb Weston 的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天早上，我們發布了收益新聞稿，該新聞稿可在我們的網站 Lambweston.com 上取得。請注意，在我們的發言中，我們將根據我們今天的看法，對公司的預期業績做出一些前瞻性陳述。由於風險和不確定性，實際結果可能存在重大差異。請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件中包含的警示性聲明和風險因素，以了解有關我們前瞻性聲明的更多詳細資訊。

Some of today's remarks include non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered a replacement for and should be read together with our GAAP results. You can find the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations in our earnings release. With me today are Tom Werner, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Bernadette Madarieta, our Chief Financial Officer. Tom will provide an overview of the ERP transition, the current demand environment and the status of this year's potato crop. Bernadette will then provide details on our third quarter results as well as our updated outlook for the remainder of fiscal 2024.

今天的一些評論包括非公認會計準則財務指標。這些非公認會計原則財務指標不應被視為替代我們的公認會計原則結果，而應與我們的公認會計原則結果一起閱讀。您可以在我們的收益報告中找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 的調整表。今天與我在一起的有我們的總裁兼執行長 Tom Werner； Bernadette Madarieta，我們的財務長。 Tom 將概述 ERP 過渡、當前的需求環境以及今年馬鈴薯作物的狀況。然後 Bernadette 將提供有關我們第三季業績的詳細資訊以及我們對 2024 財年剩餘時間的最新展望。

With that, let me now turn the call over to Tom.

現在讓我把電話轉給湯姆。

Thank you, Dexter. Good morning, and thank you for joining our call today. This was a challenging quarter as we transition certain central systems and functions in North America from a decades-old legacy enterprise resource planning system to SAP. The transition is the first step towards a multiyear global rollout. Among other areas, the scope of this transition affected receiving and processing customer orders, trade pricing and promotion management, managing inventories and warehousing, scheduling, transportation and shipments, invoicing customers and treasury and cash management.

謝謝你，德克斯特。早安，感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。這是一個充滿挑戰的季度，因為我們將北美的某些中央系統和功能從已有數十年歷史的傳統企業資源規劃系統過渡到 SAP。此次過渡是多年全球推廣的第一步。除其他領域外，此轉變的範圍影響了接收和處理客戶訂單、貿易定價和促銷管理、管理庫存和倉儲、調度、運輸和裝運、向客戶開立發票以及財務和現金管理。

While the transition went well in many areas, it proved more difficult than we expected despite the countless hours we spent planning, testing and preparing for the transition. Specifically, we experienced significant challenges with inventory visibility at distribution centers, which led to shipment delays, canceled orders and ultimately, lower-than-expected volumes in the quarter.

雖然過渡在許多方面進展順利，但事實證明，儘管我們花了無數時間來規劃、測試和準備過渡，但它比我們預期的要困難。具體來說，我們在配送中心的庫存可見性方面遇到了重大挑戰，導致發貨延遲、訂單取消，並最終導致本季的銷售低於預期。

In particular, we had more difficulty filling shipments of mixed product loads, which are generally higher margin than shipments of single product loads. This pressured margins in the quarter. We partnered closely with our third-party and company-owned distribution centers to minimize the impact of these challenges. This included co-locating Lamb Weston team members at our distribution centers to resolve data errors and processing issues in real time and adjusting systems and processes for balancing inventory between distribution centers and SAP.

特別是，我們在裝運混合產品時遇到了更大的困難，這些產品的利潤通常高於單一產品的裝運。這對本季的利潤率造成壓力。我們與第三方和公司自有的配送中心密切合作，以盡量減少這些挑戰的影響。這包括將 Lamb Weston 團隊成員安排在我們的配送中心，即時解決資料錯誤和處理問題，並調整系統和流程以平衡配送中心和 SAP 之間的庫存。

We also work closely with our customers to limit the impact on their operations, and I want to thank them for their patience and commitment as we manage through the transition. Importantly, I also want to thank our Lamb Weston team members who worked around the clock to help restore customer shipments and service back to pre-transition levels. As Bernadette will cover in more detail later, we estimate that the ERP transition reduced net sales by about $135 million and volume growth by approximately 8 percentage points in the third quarter. We also estimate that adjusted EBITDA was negatively impacted by approximately $95 million, with more than half of that due to lower sales and unfulfilled customer orders and the remainder due to incremental costs and expenses directly related to the transition.

我們也與客戶密切合作，以限制對他們營運的影響，我要感謝他們在我們過渡期間所表現出的耐心和承諾。重要的是，我還要感謝我們的 Lamb Weston 團隊成員日以繼夜地工作，幫助客戶的出貨和服務恢復到過渡前的水準。正如 Bernadette 稍後將詳細介紹的那樣，我們估計 ERP 轉型使第三季的淨銷售額減少了約 1.35 億美元，銷量增長了約 8 個百分點。我們還估計，調整後的 EBITDA 受到約 9,500 萬美元的負面影響，其中超過一半是由於銷售額下降和未履行的客戶訂單造成的，其餘則是由於與轉型直接相關的增量成本和費用。

As with any transition, our teams are still adapting to the new system. I'm pleased that we have contained the effect of the inventory visibility issues to our fiscal third quarter and restored customer order fulfillment rates to pre-transition levels. We understand that some customers effected by either delayed or canceled shipments may have temporarily secured supply from alternative sources until they gain confidence in our service levels.

與任何過渡一樣，我們的團隊仍在適應新系統。我很高興我們已經控制了庫存可見性問題對第三財季的影響，並將客戶訂單履行率恢復到過渡前的水平。我們了解，一些受到延遲或取消影響的客戶可能會暫時從其他來源獲得供應，直到他們對我們的服務水準充滿信心。

With healthy warehouse inventory levels and flows throughout the system, we're actively engaging customers with our direct sales force to earn their trust and their business. Turning now to the demand environment, overall, global French fry demand remains resilient, but we believe it's currently at or below the historical annual growth rate of about 2% to 4%. According to restaurant industry data providers, restaurant traffic trends in the U.S. have been generally flat to slightly down during the past 6 to 9 months as consumers continue to adjust to the cumulative effect of inflation on menus.

憑藉健康的倉庫庫存水準和整個系統的流動，我們積極與客戶和我們的直銷團隊合作，以贏得他們的信任和業務。現在轉向需求環境，總體而言，全球炸薯條需求仍保持彈性，但我們認為目前其年增長率處於或低於約 2% 至 4% 的歷史年增長率。根據餐飲業數據提供者的數據，隨著消費者持續適應通膨對菜單的累積影響，過去 6 至 9 個月美國餐廳客流量趨勢總體持平或略有下降。

QSR traffic during the third quarter was flat versus the prior year after growing modestly during the first half of fiscal 2024. Several QSRs have attributed this to less visits by lower-income consumers as their disposable income has been more affected by the overall inflationary environment. Meanwhile, traffic at full-service restaurants has declined each quarter during fiscal 2024. Outside the U.S., restaurant traffic continued to increase versus the prior year in most of our key markets.

繼2024 財年上半年小幅增長後，第三季快餐店客流量與上年持平。一些快餐店將其歸因於低收入消費者的訪問量減少，因為他們的可支配收入更容易受到整體通膨環境的影響。同時，2024 財年，全方位服務餐廳的客流量每季都在下降。在美國以外的大多數主要市場，餐廳客流量與前一年相比持續增加。

But growth has also slowed sequentially from our fiscal second quarter. Similar to the U.S., we believe traffic in these markets is also affected by consumers adjusting to the cumulative effect of inflation as well as other macro headwinds. Restaurant traffic growth in our larger markets in Europe in the third quarter was mixed. Traffic was up in France, Germany and Italy but at notably slower rates than during the first half of fiscal 2024.

但自第二財季以來，成長也連續放緩。與美國類似，我們認為這些市場的流量也受到消費者適應通膨和其他宏觀不利因素的累積效應的影響。第三季歐洲較大市場的餐廳客流量成長喜憂參半。法國、德國和義大利的流量增加，但增幅明顯低於 2024 財年上半年。

Traffic was down in the U.K. and Spain. In Asia, traffic growth in both China and Japan was solid, while in the Middle East, traffic was down. While global restaurant traffic has slowed, the fry attachment rates in North America and in our key international markets have been generally stable. So on the one hand, fries remain as popular as ever with consumers. But on the other hand, consumers are going out to eat less often.

英國和西班牙的交通流量下降。在亞洲，中國和日本的交通量成長強勁，而中東的交通量則有所下降。儘管全球餐廳客流量有所放緩，但北美和我們主要國際市場的魚苗附著率整體保持穩定。因此，一方面，薯條仍然一如既往地受到消費者的歡迎。但另一方面，消費者外出用餐的次數卻減少了。

Because of these recent trends, we're taking a more cautious view of the consumer. In our previous financial outlook, we expect the restaurant traffic and demand would pick up in the fourth quarter. As Bernadette will cover in more detail, we're now taking a more prudent approach to our expected sales and volume performance in the near term. We currently anticipate volume will decline mid-single digits as opposed to our previous expectation of modest volume growth in the fourth quarter.

由於這些最近的趨勢，我們對消費者採取更加謹慎的態度。在我們先前的財務展望中，我們預計第四季度餐廳客流量和需求將會回升。正如伯納黛特將更詳細地介紹的那樣，我們現在對近期的預期銷售和銷售表現採取更加謹慎的態度。我們目前預期銷量將下降中個位數，而不是我們先前對第四季銷售溫和成長的預期。

Despite this near-term caution, we believe the pressure on restaurant traffic and demand is temporary, and we remain confident that the global fry category will return to its historical growth rates as consumers continue to adjust to higher menu prices. Turning now to the upcoming potato crop. In North America, we've agreed to a 3% decline in the aggregate and contract prices for the 2024 potato crop and have largely secured the targeted number of acres to be planted across our primary growing regions.

儘管近期持謹慎態度，但我們認為餐廳客流量和需求面臨的壓力是暫時的，我們仍然相信，隨著消費者繼續適應更高的菜單價格，全球薯條類別將恢復到歷史增長率。現在轉向即將到來的馬鈴薯作物。在北美，我們同意將 2024 年馬鈴薯作物的總價和合約價格下降 3%，並基本上確保了我們主要種植區的種植面積目標。

Planting is on schedule for the early potato varieties, and we expect planning for the main harvest to be completed by the end of April. Although we expect our potato costs in North America to decline somewhat during the second half of fiscal 2025, assuming an average crop, they will likely be offset by a rise in our other input costs. In Europe, prices governed under fixed price contracts are up mid- to high single digits, and we've contracted for our targeted amount of acres.

早熟馬鈴薯品種的播種工作正在按計畫進行，我們預計主要收穫計畫將在四月底完成。儘管我們預計北美的馬鈴薯成本在 2025 財年下半年會有所下降，但假設收成平均，這些成本可能會被我們其他投入成本的上升所抵消。在歐洲，固定物價合約規定的價格上漲了中高個位數，而且我們已經簽訂了目標面積的合約。

We'll provide our typical update on the outlook for potato crops in North America and Europe when we issue our fourth quarter earnings in late July. So in summary, we believe the impact of the order fulfillment issues has been contained in the third quarter as service levels have been restored to pre-transition levels. Overall, global fry demand remains resilient, although restaurant traffic trends continue to be challenged as consumers adjust to higher menu prices.

當我們在七月底發布第四季度收益時，我們將提供北美和歐洲馬鈴薯作物前景的典型更新。總而言之，我們認為隨著服務水準已恢復至過渡前的水平，訂單履行問題的影響已在第三季得到控制。總體而言，全球薯條需求仍然強勁，儘管隨著消費者適應更高的菜單價格，餐廳客流量趨勢繼續受到挑戰。

We have reduced our fiscal 2024 financial targets to reflect these softer traffic trends and the higher-than-expected financial impact of the ERP transition. And finally, we have largely locked in the pricing and acreage needed for this year's crop in North America and Europe. Let me now turn the call over to Bernadette for a more detailed discussion on our third quarter results and updated outlook.

我們降低了 2024 財年的財務目標，以反映這些疲軟的流量趨勢以及 ERP 轉型帶來的高於預期的財務影響。最後，我們基本上鎖定了北美和歐洲今年作物所需的價格和麵積。現在讓我將電話轉給伯納黛特，以更詳細地討論我們第三季的業績和最新的前景。

Thanks, Tom, and good morning, everyone. As Tom noted, we're not happy with the magnitude of the impact to the ERP transition on our customers, our business and our P&L. However, I do want to take a moment and say how proud I am of our Lamb Weston team members who did work tirelessly to remedy the issues we experienced and bring our customer order fulfillment rates back to pre-transition levels within the quarter.

謝謝，湯姆，大家早安。正如 Tom 所指出的，我們對 ERP 轉型對我們的客戶、我們的業務和損益表產生的影響程度並不滿意。然而，我確實想花點時間說，我為我們的Lamb Weston 團隊成員感到多麼自豪，他們不知疲倦地努力解決我們遇到的問題，並在本季度將我們的客戶訂單履行率恢復到過渡前的水平。

I also want to thank our sales team members who stayed close to our customers to limit the impact as much as possible on their businesses. Let's review our third quarter results. Sales increased $205 million or 16% to $1.46 billion. The entire increase was driven by $357 million of incremental sales from the acquisition of the EMEA business. This is the last quarter that we'll receive the incremental benefit from the EMEA consolidation since we began to consolidate EMEA sales beginning in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023.

我還要感謝我們的銷售團隊成員，他們與客戶保持密切聯繫，盡可能限制其業務受到的影響。讓我們回顧一下我們第三季的業績。銷售額增加 2.05 億美元，成長 16%，達到 14.6 億美元。整個成長是由收購 EMEA 業務帶來的 3.57 億美元的增量銷售額所推動的。自 2023 財年第四季開始整合 EMEA 銷售以來，這是我們從 EMEA 整合中獲得增量收益的最後一個季度。

If we exclude the incremental sales from the EMEA acquisition, net sales declined $152 million or 12%. We estimate that the majority of the decline or approximately $135 million was due to unfilled orders attributable to the ERP transition. Price/mix was up 4% as we continued to benefit from the inflation-driven pricing actions taken in fiscal 2023 and pricing actions taken this year in both our North America and international segments.

如果我們排除 EMEA 收購帶來的增量銷售額，淨銷售額下降 1.52 億美元，即 12%。我們估計，大部分下降（約 1.35 億美元）是由於 ERP 轉型導致未履行訂單造成的。由於我們繼續受益於 2023 財年採取的通貨膨脹驅動的定價行動以及今年在北美和國際市場採取的定價行動，價格/組合上漲了 4%。

However, unfavorable mix related to the type of orders we were able to fill during the ERP transition partially offset the benefit of the pricing actions. In addition, lower freight charges to customers were nearly a 5-point headwind, which was driven by lower volume shipped and the pass-through of lower freight rates when shipping products to customers. Total sales volumes declined 16%, with about 8 points of the decline associated with unfilled customer orders due to the ERP system transition.

然而，與我們在 ERP 轉型期間能夠履行的訂單類型相關的不利組合部分抵消了定價行動的好處。此外，由於出貨量減少以及向客戶運送產品時運費較低，導致客戶運費下降近 5 個百分點。總銷售量下降 16%，其中約 8 個百分點的下降與 ERP 系統轉型導致未完成的客戶訂單有關。

The other 8 points of the decline was primarily driven by 2 factors: first, more than half reflected softer-than-expected restaurant traffic trends in North America and key international markets. As Tom mentioned, we believe the traffic trends remain challenging as consumers continue to adapt to higher menu prices. In addition, unusually poor weather in January negatively affected traffic in the U.S.

另外 8 個百分點的下降主要由兩個因素驅動：首先，超過一半的下降反映了北美和主要國際市場的餐廳客流量趨勢低於預期。正如湯姆所提到的，我們認為，隨著消費者繼續適應更高的菜單價格，流量趨勢仍然充滿挑戰。此外，一月份異常惡劣的天氣對美國的交通產生了負面影響。

Second, the remainder of the volume decline reflected the carryover impact of exiting lower-margin business during the second half of fiscal 2023. This is the last quarter in which we will see any meaningful headwind from the 4 notable contracts that we exited last year to strategically manage customer and product mix. Moving on from sales. Adjusted gross profit increased $24 million to $427 million, which was driven by the benefit of inflation-driven pricing actions and incremental earnings from the consolidation of the EMEA business.

其次，剩餘的銷售下降反映了 2023 財年下半年退出低利潤業務的結轉影響。這是最後一個季度，我們將看到我們去年退出的 4 份值得注意的合約帶來任何重大阻力。策略性地管理客戶和產品組合。從銷售開始。調整後的毛利增加了 2,400 萬美元，達到 4.27 億美元，這是由於通貨膨脹驅動的定價行為以及 EMEA 業務整合帶來的增量收益的推動。

The increase was partially offset by mid-single-digit input cost inflation on a per pound basis and a $20 million charge for the write-off of excess raw potatoes as we considered the softer restaurant traffic trends in North America as well as the higher-than-expected impact on volume from the ERP transition. In addition, we estimate that the ERP transition negatively impacted adjusted gross profit by approximately $88 million. We estimate that approximately $55 million was due to lower volumes and negative mix.

這一增長被每磅中個位數的投入成本通膨和 2000 萬美元的多餘生土豆沖銷費用所部分抵消，因為我們考慮到北美餐廳客流量趨勢的疲軟以及較高的成本。ERP 轉型對銷量的影響超出預期。此外，我們估計 ERP 轉型對調整後毛利產生了約 8,800 萬美元的負面影響。我們估計大約 5500 萬美元是由於銷量下降和負面組合造成的。

And that the remaining $33 million was due to about $26 million from reduced fixed cost coverage and inefficiencies arising from planned downtime for the ERP transition in our factories as well as additional freight charges as we sought to reduce the impact of shipment delays on our customers and about $7 million for penalties associated with delayed shipments or the inability to fill customer orders. Adjusted SG&A increased $30 million to $164 million, primarily due to incremental SG&A with the consolidation of EMEA as well as higher expenses associated with the ERP system transition, including noncash amortization.

剩餘的 3,300 萬美元是由於固定成本覆蓋範圍減少和工廠 ERP 過渡計劃停機導致效率低下造成的約 2,600 萬美元，以及我們力求減少發貨延誤對客戶和客戶的影響而產生的額外運費。與延遲發貨或無法滿足客戶訂單相關的罰款約為700 萬美元。調整後的 SG&A 增加了 3000 萬美元，達到 1.64 億美元，主要是由於 EMEA 合併帶來的 SG&A 增量以及與 ERP 系統轉型相關的費用增加（包括非現金攤銷）。

The increase includes approximately $7 million of incremental costs to support the system post go-live, including efforts to restore customer order fulfillment rates to pre-transition levels. A reduction in compensation and benefit accruals tempered the increase in SG&A. All of this led to adjusted EBITDA of $344 million, which is down 2% versus the prior year. Lower income in the Lamb Weston base business, which includes an estimated $95 million impact from the ERP transition and a $25 million write-off of excess potatoes more than offset incremental earnings from consolidating the EMEA business and the benefit of inflation-driven pricing actions.

增加的費用包括約 700 萬美元的增量成本，用於支援系統上線後，包括努力將客戶訂單履行率恢復到過渡前的水平。薪酬和應計福利的減少抑制了銷售管理及行政費用的成長。所有這些導致調整後 EBITDA 為 3.44 億美元，比上年下降 2%。 Lamb Weston 基礎業務的收入較低，其中包括ERP 轉型帶來的約9500 萬美元的影響以及多餘土豆的2500 萬美元沖銷，這足以抵消整合EMEA 業務帶來的增量收益以及通脹驅動的定價行動的好處。

So on an underlying basis, excluding these items, adjusted EBITDA would have been around $465 million, while sales excluding acquisitions and the impact of the ERP transition would have been down 1% to 2%. Moving to our segments. Sales in our North America segment, which includes sales to customers in all channels in the U.S., Canada and Mexico declined $123 million or 12% in the quarter. We estimate that essentially all of that decline was due to unfilled orders and unfavorable mix attributable to the ERP transition.

因此，從根本上看，排除這些項目，調整後的 EBITDA 約為 4.65 億美元，而排除收購和 ERP 轉型影響的銷售額將下降 1% 至 2%。轉向我們的細分市場。本季北美部門的銷售額（包括美國、加拿大和墨西哥所有通路的客戶銷售額）下降了 1.23 億美元，即 12%。我們估計，基本上所有下降都是由於未完成的訂單和 ERP 轉型造成的不利組合造成的。

Price/mix was up 5% driven by the carryover benefit of pricing actions that took effect in fiscal 2023 across each of our primary sales channels as well as some pricing actions taken this year. Mix was unfavorable as higher margin, lower volume customers, which typically have more complex mixed product orders were harder to fill until the inventory visibility issues related to the ERP transition were resolved.

由於 2023 財年在我們每個主要銷售管道上生效的定價行動以及今年採取的一些定價行動的結轉效益，價格/組合上漲了 5%。混合是不利的，因為在解決與 ERP 轉型相關的庫存可見性問題之前，利潤較高、產量較低的客戶（通常擁有更複雜的混合產品訂單）更難滿足。

In addition, lower freight charges to customers partially offset the increase in price/mix by more than 4 percentage points. Volume declined 17% with more than half of the decline reflecting unfilled customer orders resulting from the ERP transition. The remainder of the decline primarily reflects soft restaurant traffic and retail trends as well as the carryover impact of exiting lower-margin business during the second half of fiscal 2023.

此外，向客戶收取的運費降低部分抵銷了價格/產品組合的成長超過 4 個百分點。銷售量下降 17%，其中一半以上的下降反映了 ERP 轉型導致未完成的客戶訂單。其餘下降主要反映了餐廳客流量和零售趨勢疲軟，以及 2023 財年下半年退出低利潤業務的遺留影響。

North America segment adjusted EBITDA declined 14% to $286 million. The decline was largely driven by an estimated $83 million impact from the ERP transition and $23 million charge for the write-off of excess potatoes, of which about $5 million of the excess potato write-off was incurred at our North American joint venture. The impact of lower volumes and higher cost per pound also contributed to the decline. These factors more than offset the benefit of inflation-driven pricing actions.

北美業務調整後 EBITDA 下降 14%，至 2.86 億美元。這一下降主要是由於 ERP 轉型帶來的約 8300 萬美元的影響以及 2300 萬美元的多餘馬鈴薯沖銷費用造成的，其中約 500 萬美元的多餘馬鈴薯沖銷發生在我們的北美合資企業中。銷量下降和每磅成本上升也導致了產量下降。這些因素遠遠抵銷了通膨驅動的定價行為的好處。

Sales in our International segment, which includes sales to customers in all channels outside of North America, grew nearly $330 million, of which $357 million were incremental sales from the EMEA acquisition. Excluding the EMEA acquisition, net sales declined $29 million or 16%. We estimate approximately $12 million of that decline relates to unfilled orders attributable to the ERP transition. Price/mix was up 1%, driven primarily by the carryover benefit of pricing actions taken last year as well as pricing actions taken this year.

我們的國際部門銷售額（包括北美以外所有通路的客戶銷售額）成長了近 3.3 億美元，其中 3.57 億美元來自 EMEA 收購帶來的增量銷售額。不包括 EMEA 收購，淨銷售額下降 2,900 萬美元，即 16%。我們估計，其中約 1,200 萬美元的下降與 ERP 轉型導致的未履行訂單有關。價格/組合上漲了 1%，這主要是由於去年採取的定價行動以及今年採取的定價行動的結轉效益所致。

Lower freight charges to customers partially offset the increase in price/mix by about 5 percentage points. Sales volume declined 17% with more than half of the decline, reflecting the carryover impact of exiting lower-margin business during the second half of fiscal 2023. The remainder of the volume decline reflects unfilled customer orders served by North American exports as a result of the ERP transition.

向客戶收取的運費降低部分抵銷了價格/產品組合約 5 個百分點的成長。銷量下降 17%，降幅超過一半，反映了 2023 財年下半年退出低利潤業務的結轉影響。銷量下降的其餘部分反映了由於北美出口未滿足的客戶訂單。ERP 轉型。

International segment's adjusted EBITDA increased 88% to $102 billion. Incremental earnings from the consolidation of EMEA's financial results drove the increase. Excluding the EMEA acquisition, higher cost per pound, an estimated $5 million impact from the ERP transition, lower volumes and a $2 million allocated charge for the write-off of excess raw potatoes more than offset favorable price/mix.

國際部門調整後的 EBITDA 成長 88%，達到 1,020 億美元。歐洲、中東和非洲地區財務業績合併帶來的增量收益推動了這一成長。不包括歐洲、中東和非洲地區的收購、每磅成本的上升、ERP 轉型帶來的預計500 萬美元的影響、銷量下降以及沖銷多餘生馬鈴薯的200 萬美元分配費用，這些都足以抵消有利的價格/組合。

Let's move to our liquidity position and cash flow. Our balance sheet remains strong. We ended the quarter with a net debt leverage ratio of 2.6x adjusted EBITDA, up from 2.4x at the end of the fiscal second quarter. Our net debt increased about $270 million to $3.8 billion as we drew on our revolver to largely finance increased working capital needs during the ERP system transition as well as increased capital expenditures.

讓我們看看我們的流動性狀況和現金流。我們的資產負債表仍然強勁。本季末，我們的淨負債槓桿比率為調整後 EBITDA 的 2.6 倍，高於第二財季末的 2.4 倍。我們的淨債務增加了約 2.7 億美元至 38 億美元，因為我們動用左輪手槍主要為 ERP 系統轉型期間增加的營運資金需求以及增加的資本支出提供資金。

We continue to have ample liquidity, including more than $900 million available under our revolving credit facilities. In the first 9 months of the year, we generated more than $480 million of cash from operations, up about $145 million versus the prior year period, primarily due to higher earnings. We spent nearly $830 million in capital expenditures, which is up about $330 million from the prior year period. The increase primarily reflects construction and equipment costs for our new China factory that started up in November as well as costs related to our capacity expansion projects in Idaho, Netherlands and Argentina.

我們仍然擁有充足的流動性，包括循環信貸額度下的 9 億多美元可用資金。今年前 9 個月，我們的營運現金超過 4.8 億美元，比去年同期增加約 1.45 億美元，這主要是由於收益增加。我們花了近 8.3 億美元的資本支出，比去年同期增加了約 3.3 億美元。這一增長主要反映了我們於 11 月啟動的新中國工廠的建設和設備成本，以及與我們在愛達荷州、荷蘭和阿根廷的產能擴張項目相關的成本。

And finally, we've returned more than $270 million of cash to our shareholders, comprised of $122 million in dividends and $150 million in share repurchases. Turning to our updated fiscal 2024 outlook. We updated our full year sales and earnings targets to reflect the impact of the ERP system transition as well as near-term demand trends. Specifically, we reduced our annual net sales target to $6.54 billion to $6.6 billion from our previous target range of $6.8 billion to $7 billion. The updated range includes $1.1 billion of incremental sales attributable to the EMEA acquisition during the first 3 quarters of the year.

最後，我們向股東返還了超過 2.7 億美元的現金，其中包括 1.22 億美元的股息和 1.5 億美元的股票回購。轉向我們最新的 2024 財年展望。我們更新了全年銷售和獲利目標，以反映 ERP 系統轉型的影響以及近期需求趨勢。具體來說，我們將年度淨銷售額目標從先前的 68 億美元至 70 億美元目標範圍下調至 65.4 億美元至 66 億美元。更新後的範圍包括今年前 3 季因收購 EMEA 帶來的 11 億美元的增量銷售額。

Our updated sales target implies sales of $1.69 billion to $1.75 billion in our fiscal fourth quarter, which is flat to up 3% compared with the same period a year ago. We expect price/mix will drive our sales growth in the fourth quarter, reflecting the continued carryover benefit of inflation-driven pricing actions taken in fiscal 2023 and actions we've taken in fiscal 2024. We expect lower freight charges to customers will continue to partially offset the increase in price/mix.

我們更新的銷售目標意味著第四財季的銷售額為 16.9 億美元至 17.5 億美元，與去年同期相比持平至成長 3%。我們預計價格/組合將推動我們第四季度的銷售成長，反映出 2023 財年採取的通膨驅動定價行動以及我們在 2024 財年採取的行動的持續結轉效益。我們預期客戶運費將繼續降低部分抵銷了價格/組合的增加。

As Tom noted, we expect volumes in the fourth quarter will decline mid-single digits, which is down from our previous target of positive volume growth. The primary reasons for the change include our expectation that soft restaurant traffic trends in North America will continue longer than we initially anticipated. And that restaurant traffic trends in several of our key international markets have also softened more than expected. We point to softer restaurant traffic trends as the driver affecting our volume performance since our fry attachment rates in North America and our key international markets have generally been stable and that our customer order fulfillment rates that were affected as part of the ERP transition in North America are back to pre-transition levels.

正如湯姆指出的那樣，我們預計第四季度的銷售量將下降中個位數，這低於我們先前銷售量正成長的目標。這項變化的主要原因包括我們預期北美餐廳客流量趨勢將持續比我們最初預期更長的時間。我們幾個主要國際市場的餐廳客流量趨勢也比預期更加疲軟。我們指出，餐廳客流量趨勢疲軟是影響我們銷售表現的驅動因素，因為我們在北美和主要國際市場的魚苗附著率總體穩定，而且我們的客戶訂單履行率因北美 ERP 轉型的一部分而受到影響回到轉型前的水準。

In addition, we expect volume in the fourth quarter may be impacted by some customers in North America that were affected by the ERP transition seeking supply at least temporarily from alternative sources. For earnings, we reduced our adjusted EBITDA range to $1.48 billion to $1.51 billion from a previous range of $1.54 billion to $1.62 billion. That's down about $85 million using the midpoints of the 2 ranges. The decrease largely reflects an estimated $95 million impact from the ERP transition, a $25 million charge for the write-off of excess raw potatoes and the impact of softer restaurant traffic trends in North America and our key international markets.

此外，我們預計第四季度的銷售可能會受到 ERP 轉型影響的一些北美客戶的影響，這些客戶至少暫時從其他來源尋求供應。就獲利而言，我們將調整後 EBITDA 範圍從先前的 15.4 億美元至 16.2 億美元下調至 14.8 億美元至 15.1 億美元。使用兩個範圍的中點計算，大約減少了 8500 萬美元。這一下降主要反映了 ERP 轉型帶來的約 9500 萬美元的影響、沖銷多餘生馬鈴薯的 2500 萬美元費用以及北美和主要國際市場餐廳客流量趨勢疲軟的影響。

We partially offset the decrease by absorbing some of the financial impact of the ERP transition as well as reducing compensation and benefit accruals. Our updated target implies adjusted EBITDA of $350 million to $375 million in the fourth quarter, an increase of 9% versus the prior year quarter using the midpoint of the range. We expect higher sales and adjusted gross profit to drive the growth, partially offset by adjusted SG&A of $190 million to $195 million.

我們透過吸收 ERP 轉型的部分財務影響以及減少薪資和福利應計額部分抵消了這一下降。我們更新的目標意味著第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 3.5 億美元至 3.75 億美元，使用該範圍中點計算，與去年同期相比成長 9%。我們預計更高的銷售額和調整後的毛利將推動成長，但部分被調整後的 SG&A 1.9 億美元至 1.95 億美元所抵銷。

With respect to adjusted diluted earnings per share, we lowered our full year target to $5.50 to $5.65. We're also updating a couple of other financial targets. We expect capital expenditures of $950 million, which is the upper end of our previous range of $900 million to $950 million. We also expect our annual effective tax rate to be around 23%, which is at the low end of our targeted range of 23% to 24%. Our targets for depreciation and amortization expense of $300 million and interest expense of $140 million are unchanged.

關於調整後的稀釋每股盈餘，我們將全年目標下調至 5.50 美元至 5.65 美元。我們也更新了其他一些財務目標。我們預計資本支出為 9.5 億美元，這是我們之前 9 億至 9.5 億美元範圍的上限。我們也預計年度有效稅率約為 23%，處於我們 23% 至 24% 目標範圍的下限。我們的折舊和攤提費用為 3 億美元、利息費用為 1.4 億美元的目標保持不變。

Let me now turn it back over to Tom for some closing comments.

現在讓我把它轉回給湯姆，徵求一些結束語。

Thanks, Bernadette. With the impact of the order fulfillment issues behind us, we remain focused on serving our customers as we close out fiscal 2024. While near-term demand trends may be soft, we remain confident in the long-term growth outlook and the health of the category. And by continuing to execute our strategies, we believe that we will remain well positioned to deliver sustainable, profitable growth and create value for our shareholders over the long term.

謝謝，伯納黛特。儘管訂單履行問題的影響已經過去，但在 2024 財年結束之際，我們仍然專注於為客戶提供服務。雖然近期需求趨勢可能疲軟，但我們對長期成長前景和健康狀況仍然充滿信心。透過繼續執行我們的策略，我們相信我們將保持良好的地位，實現可持續的獲利成長，並為股東長期創造價值。

Thank you for joining us today, and now we're ready to take your questions.

感謝您今天加入我們，現在我們準備好回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) We'll go first to Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

（操作員指示）我們首先去找巴克萊銀行的安德魯·拉扎爾。

I think one of the questions I'm getting probably most this morning, frankly, separate from all things sort of ERP related, really has to do much more with your comments around slowing restaurant traffic all the time when sort of industry capacity is set to start building once again and what that could portend for pricing going forward, particularly with cost pressure not being anywhere near what it was in the last couple of years. So I guess, as a starting point, I'd really be curious to get your perspective on how you would address sort of that concern at this point.

坦白說，我認為今天早上我收到最多的問題之一，坦率地說，與所有與 ERP 相關的事情分開，當行業產能設置為再次開始建設，這可能預示著未來的定價，特別是在成本壓力遠不及過去幾年的情況。因此，我想，作為一個起點，我真的很想知道您對目前如何解決這個問題的看法。

Yes, Andrew, thank you for the question. Certainly, the restaurant traffic trends have been soft as we stated in our comments, and everybody knows we've got capacity coming on in the industry. And the thing to remember is as the capacity comes on, it's not all created equal. So the capabilities of the capacity are different. And as we have in the past, when we've had capacity coming online, we're going to be very -- we're going to manage it very closely and be -- and look at the opportunities we have in the different markets based on the capacity coming online as we have in the past.

是的，安德魯，謝謝你的提問。當然，正如我們在評論中所說，餐廳客流量趨勢一直疲軟，而且每個人都知道我們行業的產能正在增加。要記住的是，隨著容量的增加，並不是所有的容量都是一樣的。所以能力的能力是不同的。正如我們過去所做的那樣，當我們有能力上線時，我們將非常密切地管理它，並著眼於我們在不同市場中擁有的機會基於我們過去的線上容量。

And so the difference is, obviously, the trends in the restaurant traffic are softer. We expect that to be a temporary outlier at this point. Time will tell, but we'll manage the capacity coming online like we have in the past with ourselves and competitors, and the category has been resilient, and we remain confident and the long-term trajectory of this category, which we expect to get back to 2% to 4% growth at a minimum.

顯然，不同之處在於，餐廳客流量的趨勢更加疲軟。我們預期目前這只是暫時的異常值。時間會證明一切，但我們將像過去與自己和競爭對手一樣管理上線的容量，並且該類別一直具有彈性，我們對這一類別的長期軌跡保持信心，我們期望獲得至少恢復到2% 至4%的增長。

And then I know there are a number of costs, right, that Lamb Weston absorbed in fiscal '24, that I don't think you would expect to necessarily repeat next year. So some of the inventory write-offs, the costs associated with, obviously, this ERP disruption and such. I mean, just back of the envelope, it would seem like, again, if it weren't for those things, maybe EBITDA would be closer to -- even closer to like $1.7 billion this year as sort of a base.

然後我知道 Lamb Weston 在 24 財年吸收了許多成本，對吧，我認為明年不一定會重複這些成本。顯然，一些庫存沖銷、與 ERP 中斷等相關的成本。我的意思是，從表面上看，如果沒有這些事情，今年的 EBITDA 可能會更接近——甚至更接近 17 億美元。

And I'm just trying to get a sense if we exclude those costs, would that kind of be -- how we think about a baseline for EBITDA for '24 off of which you would expect to grow EBITDA hopefully closer to your algorithm, let's say, in fiscal '25? Or am I missing something in that sort of math?

我只是想了解一下，如果我們排除這些成本，我們會如何考慮 24 年 EBITDA 的基線，您希望 EBITDA 的成長有望更接近您的演算法，讓我們比如說，25 財年？或者我在數學方面遺漏了一些東西？

Andrew, this is Bernadette. You're absolutely thinking about it correctly. We did absorb those costs, and I think you would add those back as you look to fiscal '25. I think what's going to be key is we'll need to take a look at the restaurant traffic trends and impact on volume as we move forward and how that translates to fiscal '25. And we're in the process of rolling that up right now, and we'll have more information when we give our outlook in July.

安德魯，這是伯納黛特。你的想法絕對是正確的。我們確實吸收了這些成本，我認為您在考慮 25 財年時會將這些成本加回去。我認為關鍵是我們需要了解餐廳客流量趨勢和對數量的影響，以及如何將其轉化為 25 財年的情況。我們現在正在對此進行匯總，當我們在 7 月給出展望時，我們將獲得更多資訊。

We'll go next to Peter Galbo with Bank of America.

接下來我們將討論美國銀行的彼得·加爾博 (Peter Galbo)。

I wanted to unpack maybe just the underlying volume comment that you made, Bernadette. So I mean at the total company level, right, if we strip out the 8 points from ERP, and there's obviously a piece that was walkaway business it seems like underlying volumes would have been down, I don't know, 4% or 5%.

伯納黛特，我想也許只是解開你所做的潛在的評論。所以我的意思是，在整個公司層面，對吧，如果我們從ERP 中剔除這8 個點，顯然有一個部分是無人管理的業務，那麼基礎銷量似乎會下降，我不知道，4% 或5% %。

And that's kind of what you're extrapolating into 4Q. Just want to understand if that's kind of the logic as to how you're applying whatever the 3Q rate was forward?

這就是你對第四季的推論。只是想了解這是否是您如何應用第三季利率的邏輯？

Yes. So you're exactly right. It was a 16% decline in the quarter, 8 points related to the ERP transition and then the underlying volume we had expected it to improve sequentially but that the softer traffic trends that we did see, we do expect those to remain soft in Q4 of this year, and that's what we're updating in our outlook. That continued softness.

是的。所以你是完全正確的。本季下降了16%，下降了8 個百分點，與ERP 轉型有關，然後我們預計基礎交易量會連續改善，但我們確實看到了流量趨勢的疲軟，我們確實預計第四季度的流量趨勢將保持疲軟。今年，這就是我們更新的展望。那持續的柔軟。

Okay. Got it. And I think what's implied again in the fourth quarter guidance, again just thinking about this as it starts rolling forward into next year, is that price/mix kind of steps back up at least sequentially or the contribution rate based on kind of the updated guidance? And I wasn't sure how much of that is just mix as you get back to fulfillment versus anything else that we might be considering.

好的。知道了。我認為第四季度指導中再次暗示的內容是，當它開始滾動到明年時，價格/組合至少會按順序回升，或者基於更新指導的貢獻率？我不確定當你回到滿足感時，其中有多少是混合的，而不是我們可能考慮的其他任何事情。

Yes, you're going to see a couple of things. Mix will be part of it. As we said, in the third quarter, we weren't able to fill a lot of those orders that are more higher margin, just given the more mixed loads and the order fulfillment issues we were having. So you will see that impact then into the fourth quarter. But there's generally a sequential change between third and fourth quarter, and you'll continue to see that as you have in previous periods.

是的，您會看到一些事情。混合將成為其中的一部分。正如我們所說，在第三季度，我們無法滿足許多利潤率更高的訂單，只是考慮到更多的混合負載和我們遇到的訂單履行問題。因此，您將在第四季度看到這種影響。但第三季和第四季之間通常會出現連續變化，並且您將繼續看到這一點，就像之前的時期一樣。

We'll go next to Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs.

接下來我們將討論高盛的亞當·薩繆爾森。

So I guess, first, kind of continuing on Peter's line of questioning. I want to think about the volume impact of customers who are seeking alternative sources of supply and where -- I mean, definitionally, that's market share. Now one could say that, that is temporary. But just get your perspective on your ability to get that volume and that share back?

所以我想，首先，繼續彼得的提問。我想考慮正在尋求替代供應來源的客戶對數量的影響，以及在哪裡——我的意思是，從定義上講，這就是市場份額。現在可以說，那是暫時的。但是，您是否有能力重新獲得該銷量和份額？

And on a related point, kind of we've talked about the headwinds from foregone volumes, from business you walked away from, kind at the time, the explanation was that you were going to be trying to backfill that with higher margin and higher mix products, does it seem like we're getting that incremental uplift on the back end? And I'm just trying to get a update on where you are with those targeted volumes and targeted customers and categories.

在一個相關的問題上，我們已經討論過來自放棄的銷售、來自你放棄的業務的逆風，當時的解釋是，你將試圖用更高的利潤和更高的組合來彌補這一點產品，我們似乎在後端獲得了增量提升嗎？我只是想了解您在目標數量、目標客戶和類別方面的最新情況。

Yes, this is Tom. So a couple of things. We're getting ready to go through our contracting season as we do every year at this time. We're on the front end of it. So we have a robust plan on how we're going to work through that. And so I'm confident the team and our direct sales force and Mike Smith and his commercial leaders are focused on that. So more to come on that, but it's going to take some time. It's not perfectly matched as we've stated in the past in terms of the volume, we've exited versus what we're targeting in the marketplace, and we're going to do it at the right margin levels. So that's number one.

是的，這是湯姆。有幾件事。我們正準備像每年這個時候一樣度過我們的合約季節。我們正處於它的前端。因此，我們對如何解決這個問題有一個強有力的計劃。因此，我相信團隊、我們的直銷團隊以及麥克史密斯和他的商業領導者都會專注於此。所以還有更多的事情要做，但這需要一些時間。正如我們過去在數量方面所說的那樣，它並不完全匹配，我們已經退出了我們在市場上的目標，並且我們將在正確的利潤水平上做到這一點。所以這是第一。

Number two, this is a tough transition. There's no question about it. And it materially impacted the company, and we're not happy about it. And so we have to win back the trust of a lot of -- some of our smaller customers, and we're working hard to do that with our direct sales force. But it's going to take some time, and that's an unfortunate thing that has happened, but I'm confident we have a plan.

第二，這是一個艱難的轉變。毫無疑問。這對公司產生了重大影響，我們對此並不滿意。因此，我們必須贏回很多——一些小客戶的信任，我們正在努力透過我們的直銷隊伍來做到這一點。但這需要一些時間，這是一件不幸的事情，但我相信我們有一個計劃。

We've got everybody activated our direct sales force, 300 salespeople on the street but it's going to take some time. And your question about -- your point about market share is absolutely true. And so we're going to have to work hard to get it back and we will. We have a resilient sales force, but it's going to take some time, and I'm confident that the team, we got a great plan in place, but it will take some time, and we're going to get there.

我們已經讓每個人都啟動了我們的直銷隊伍，街上有 300 名銷售人員，但這需要一些時間。你關於市場佔有率的問題是絕對正確的。所以我們必須努力工作才能把它找回來，我們會的。我們擁有一支有彈性的銷售隊伍，但這需要一些時間，我對團隊充滿信心，我們制定了一個很好的計劃，但這需要一些時間，我們將會實現這一目標。

Okay. That's helpful. And then a second question I had on capital allocation and CapEx. I guess I'm just trying to get a sense for higher -- at the high end of the range on capital spend this year and that's just the timing of payments on projects. Has there been a -- with a slower demand environment in the near term, is there any thoughts about timing of capital spend in '25 and '26 as it relate to the Netherlands and Argentina facilities and how quickly those need to be brought on or how quickly upgrading of other facilities needs to happen? And should we still be thinking about CapEx in -- how should we think about CapEx in '25 given slightly higher spend this year?

好的。這很有幫助。然後是關於資本配置和資本支出的第二個問題。我想我只是想了解今年資本支出範圍的高端，這只是專案付款的時間。在近期需求環境放緩的情況下，是否對 25 年和 26 年與荷蘭和阿根廷設施相關的資本支出時機有任何想法，以及這些設施需要多快投入或其他設施的升級需要多快進行？鑑於今年的支出略高，我們是否仍應該考慮 25 年的資本支出？我們該如何考慮 25 年的資本支出？

Yes. So Adam, as we communicated in our Investor Day in October, we're going to have an elevated level this year, next year. The projects that you mentioned, those are baked, and we're committed to it. And so we expect '25 will be elevated as we stated. And as we continue to evaluate the market and what's happening we'll evaluate all of our capital expenditures going forward in terms of base capital levels that are needed.

是的。因此，亞當，正如我們在 10 月的投資者日所傳達的那樣，今年、明年我們的水平將會提高。您提到的項目已經完成，我們將致力於此。因此，正如我們所說，我們預計 '25 將會提高。隨著我們繼續評估市場和正在發生的事情，我們將根據所需的基本資本水準評估未來的所有資本支出。

Yes, the guidance would be consistent with what we shared at Investor Day, 12% to 13% of sales in fiscal '25. .

是的，該指引將與我們在投資者日分享的內容一致，即 25 財年銷售額的 12% 至 13%。 。

We'll go next to Tom Palmer with Citi.

接下來我們將與花旗銀行的湯姆·帕爾默 (Tom Palmer) 合作。

I wanted to follow up, I guess, a little on Peter and Adam's question, just on some of these customers. When might you have clarity whether these customers have kind of dropped you on a more sustained basis or whether you're starting to kind of win them back. Is this -- it's really going to play out over 4Q and by next quarter, we'll have real visibility over that trajectory? Or could it take even longer?

我想，我想對彼得和亞當的問題進行一些跟進，只是對其中一些客戶進行跟進。您什麼時候才能清楚這些客戶是否會更持久地拋棄您，或者您是否開始贏回他們。這真的會在第四季度發揮作用嗎？到下個季度，我們將真正了解這一軌跡？或者可能需要更長的時間？

No. Right now, as we sit, my belief is over the next 3 to 5 months, we'll have some clarity on it. That's going to be in conjunction to a lot of the contracting that we go through with the customers this cycle. So Tom, I think we'll have good visibility by the time we get to our next call in July, and we'll get some more color on it by then.

不。現在，當我們坐下來時，我相信在接下來的 3 到 5 個月內，我們會對此有一些澄清。這將與我們本週期與客戶簽訂的許多合約結合在一起。湯姆，我想當我們在 7 月進行下一次電話會議時，我們將會有很好的能見度，到那時我們會得到更多的資訊。

Okay. And then just the mid-single-digit volume decline in 4Q. If we were to kind of break that down between industry and then versus Lamb Weston specific, I mean just any help here, I mean is it industry is a smaller piece to consider and the Lamb Weston piece is more meaningful?

好的。然後第四季成交量出現中個位數下降。如果我們要在行業和特定於 Lamb Weston 之間進行細分，我的意思是這裡有任何幫助，我的意思是行業是一個需要考慮的較小部分，而 Lamb Weston 部分更有意義嗎？

Yes. No, I would say that it's more industry is where you're going to be seeing that with the softer traffic trends. And then the other piece will be any hangover that we have from the ERP transition, but definitely more traffic trends softening that's impacting that.

是的。不，我想說的是，隨著流量趨勢的疲軟，你會看到更多的產業。然後，另一部分將是 ERP 轉型帶來的任何後遺症，但肯定會影響更多流量趨勢的軟化。

We'll go next to Robert Moskow with TD Cowen.

接下來我們將與 TD Cowen 一起去羅伯特莫斯科 (Robert Moskow)。

A few small ones. I don't know, maybe you wait a few months before you tell us this. But you said you've contracted with growers already for potatoes. I would imagine you have a volume assumption like internally related to that in terms of demand for fiscal '25. Is there anything or you can give us on how much volume you're contracting with those growers? And then secondly, you say that the ERP project is a multiyear, and I guess I need to know more about it. But are there any other steps along the way that you think will possibly impact your execution with customers.

幾個小的。我不知道，也許你要等幾個月才能告訴我們這件事。但你說你已經與種植者簽訂了馬鈴薯種植合約。我想你有一個與 25 財年需求方面的內部相關的數量假設。您是否可以向我們透露您與這些種植者簽訂的合約量是多少？其次，你說 ERP 項目是一個多年的項目，我想我需要更多地了解它。但您認為在過程中還有其他步驟可能會影響您與客戶的執行嗎？

Thanks, Robert. First, I'll take your last question first in terms of the ERP. The next phase of the ERP will be in North America and that will be at our plants. We will do a pilot plant first where we will test all of its capabilities before we earn the right to move to the other plants, and we'll do that in waves. So we're right now in the middle of completing design build for the plants and then we'll roll that out in phases, but it will have much less of an impact given our deployment strategy.

謝謝，羅伯特。首先，我先從 ERP 方面回答你的最後一個問題。 ERP 的下一階段將在北美，也就是我們的工廠進行。我們將首先建立一個試點工廠，在獲得轉移到其他工廠的權利之前，我們將測試其所有功能，並且我們將分批進行。因此，我們現在正在完成工廠的設計建設，然後我們將分階段推出，但考慮到我們的部署策略，它的影響要小得多。

Whereas this one was much larger in scope. And then as it relates to the potato crop that we contracted for 2024, yes, we do use volume estimates just like we do every year. We have taken down the number of acres that we did contract this year just given the elevated level of inventories that we're going to have at the end of this year with the excess crop. But we don't share any of the information in terms of number of acres, but have taken into consideration what we're seeing from restaurant traffic trends.

而這次的範圍要大得多。然後，由於它與我們簽訂的 2024 年合約馬鈴薯作物有關，是的，我們確實像每年一樣使用產量估算。考慮到今年年底我們的庫存水準將因作物過剩而增加，我們已經減少了今年承包的英畝數。但我們不分享任何有關英畝數的信息，但考慮了我們從餐廳客流量趨勢中看到的情況。

Okay. And maybe a follow-up to that. Just mathematically, I think you said traffic is kind of flattish at restaurants and attachment rates are still pretty good. How does that translate to a mid-single-digit volume decline? If I just qualitatively put those two numbers together, I would think volume would have held up a little bit better.

好的。也許是後續行動。從數學上來說，我認為你說過餐廳的客流量有點平淡，而且附著率仍然相當不錯。這如何轉化為中個位數的銷售下降？如果我將這兩個數字定性地放在一起，我認為交易量會保持得更好一些。

Yes. I think from a volume perspective, our QSRs, we are seeing sequential declines in volume and that's what's driving a lot of the volume decreases that you're seeing.

是的。我認為從銷售的角度來看，我們的 QSR 看到銷售量連續下降，這就是導致您看到的銷售量大量下降的原因。

Sequential declines?

連續下降？

Yes.

是的。

Yes. Is that a year-over-year decline also? Or is it kind of...

是的。這也是同比下降嗎？或者說是某種...

Yes, it is. Absolutely, it's a year-over-year as well as sequential. We've continued to see QSR traffic decline. When we were saying about flat that was more in the Foodservice space.

是的。當然，這是逐年和連續的。我們發現 QSR 流量持續下降。當我們談論公寓時，更多的是在餐飲服務領域。

Foodservice. Okay, separate. Got it.

餐飲服務。好吧，分開吧。知道了。

We'll go next to Rob Dickerson with Jefferies.

接下來我們將和傑弗里斯一起去羅布·迪克森。

Great. Just a couple of quick ones for me. I guess, kind of more broadly speaking, kind of given the, I guess, shift in, let's say, at least the near-term traffic outlook. Is there anything broadly speaking, the kind of changes kind of everything you walked through at the Investor Day in October just regarding kind of the long-term outlook, like long-term outlook like based with 2% to 4%, you are saying, you think temporary -- I'm not sure kind of how temporary that is.

偉大的。對我來說只有幾個快速的。我想，更廣泛地說，考慮到至少是近期交通前景的變化。從廣義上講，您在 10 月的投資者日經歷的所有事情是否發生了某種變化，就長期前景而言，例如以 2% 至 4% 為基礎的長期前景，您是說，你認為是暫時的——我不確定這有多暫時。

But then there was also an implied margin uptick each year over the next few years. Just trying to gauge kind of all the moving pieces as we think longer term.

但接下來的幾年裡，利潤率每年都在隱含上升。只是試著衡量我們長期思考的所有變化因素。

Yes, Rob, as I sit here right now, yes, we've been talking about softer traffic, and that's been in the market for a while. I don't have any -- as I sit here right now, our long-term algorithm, I'm confident in. And if this is prolonged, we have certain things that we can activate to adjust the company and the footprint. But right now, we've made some investment decisions 2 years ago based on what we believe the category is going to continue to do. I believe it's going to continue to grow, even through -- we've got a softer period. And so I don't have any reason to believe that over the long term, we need to adjust our algorithm at this point.

是的，羅布，我現在坐在這裡，是的，我們一直在談論流量疲軟，而且這種情況已經出現在市場上一段時間了。我沒有任何東西——正如我現在坐在這裡，我對我們的長期演算法充滿信心。如果這種情況延長，我們可以啟動某些東西來調整公司和足跡。但現在，我們在兩年前就根據我們認為該類別將繼續發展的情況做出了一些投資決定。我相信它會繼續增長，即使我們經歷了一段疲軟的時期。因此，我沒有任何理由相信，從長遠來看，我們此時需要調整我們的演算法。

Got it. Super. That's clear. And then just very quickly, I also think you had stated back in October, right, increasing the dividend over time, but then potentially some incremental repurchase activity outside of employee option exercises. So I'm just curious, I mean we can all see clearly, stock looks a little pressured today. I'm trying to gauge your appetite on buyback potential as you think forward to the next 12 months.

知道了。極好的。很清楚。然後很快，我也認為你在 10 月就說過，隨著時間的推移增加股息，但隨後可能會在員工選擇權行使之外進行一些增量回購活動。所以我只是很好奇，我的意思是我們都可以清楚地看到，今天股票看起來有點壓力。當您展望未來 12 個月時，我正在嘗試評估您對回購潛力的興趣。

Yes. So we're committed to the dividend. And as we evaluate our CapEx, we'll certainly take a look at our share buyback as we always do. And we'll stay committed to our dividend over time. And so yes, absolutely, based on what's going on today with our equity price, we're going to evaluate that.

是的。因此，我們致力於派發股息。當我們評估我們的資本支出時，我們肯定會像往常一樣審視我們的股票回購。隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續致力於派發股息。所以，是的，絕對的，根據今天我們的股價的變化，我們將對此進行評估。

We'll go next to Matt Smith with Stifel.

我們將和 Stifel 一起去馬特史密斯旁邊。

When you look at the slowdown in restaurant traffic, one of the factors have been the level of pricing. We've continued to see away from home inflation moving higher. So a couple of questions here. Any thoughts on what's needed to firm traffic up? Is that consumers adjusting to inflation? Or would you expect operators to lean more heavily into value offerings and promotions related to that?

當你看到餐廳客流量放緩時，因素之一就是定價水準。我們繼續看到國外通膨走高。這裡有幾個問題。關於需要什麼來穩定流量有什麼想法嗎？消費者是否正在適應通貨膨脹？或者您期望營運商更加重視與此相關的價值產品和促銷？

One of the considerations in the past, you've talked about in periods of economic softness and pressure on QSRs, fry performance has been fairly resilient benefiting from value menus featuring fries heavily. Are you seeing that level of activity today?

您在過去談到的考慮因素之一是，在經濟疲軟和快餐店面臨壓力的時期，薯條的表現相當有彈性，這得益於以薯條為主的超值菜單。您今天看到這樣的活動量嗎？

As we sit here today, I think there's 2 things. I think the consumers has to adjust to the menu pricing in terms of the inflation. I believe we're going to start seeing more menu value meal offerings going forward to drive traffic trends. That's been typically the case in the past when things have slowed down a bit. So I think it's a combination of both going forward, but it's going to take some time.

當我們今天坐在這裡時，我認為有兩件事。我認為消費者必須根據通貨膨脹來調整菜單定價。我相信我們將開始看到更多的菜單超值餐點產品不斷推動流量趨勢。過去，當事情放緩一點時，通常會出現這種情況。所以我認為這是兩者的結合，但這需要一些時間。

And then just a follow-up question on potato cost. It sounds like they're expected to be down low single digits in North America for the 2024 crop. That's one of the few instances where potato costs are actually down year-over-year. Is the pressure from the potential of lower pricing to your customers, is that offset by higher input costs across the rest of your basket? Or would you expect some pressure on your pricing going forward from lower potato costs?

然後是關於馬鈴薯成本的後續問題。聽起來北美 2024 年作物產量預計將下降個位數。這是馬鈴薯成本實際較去年同期下降的少數情況之一。潛在的降價給您的客戶帶來的壓力是否會被您購物籃中其他產品的較高投入成本所抵消？或者您預計馬鈴薯成本下降會對您的定價造成一些壓力嗎？

Yes. So just to reset, even though it's down like we stated 2% to 3%. If you go back and stack it up the last 2 years, it's been up significantly. And when -- we're in the middle of rolling up our entire input basket right now for '25, as we've stated, there are commodity inflationary pressures in other areas of our input basket. So while our inflation, we don't expect it to be double digits like it has been in the last 2 to 3 years.

是的。所以只是重置，即使它像我們所說的下降了 2% 到 3%。如果你回顧過去兩年的情況，你會發現它已經有了顯著的成長。正如我們所說，當我們現在正在捲起 25 年的整個投入籃時，我們投入籃的其他領域存在商品通膨壓力。因此，雖然我們的通膨率不會像過去兩三年那樣達到兩位數。

We're still going to be dealing with some inflation at this point. I'm not going to give you a specific number, we'll talk about that in July because we're in the middle of kind of rolling up our '25 operating plan right now.

目前我們仍將面臨一定程度的通貨膨脹。我不會給你一個具體的數字，我們將在 7 月討論這個問題，因為我們現在正在總結我們的 25 營運計劃。

we'll move next to Marc Torrente with Wells Fargo Securities.

接下來我們將討論富國銀行證券公司的馬克‧托倫特 (Marc Torrente)。

You touched on sort of the net -- on the ERP process. The recent implementation was a heavy lift. It sounds as though you are more confident in ability to limit the transition impact for the next steps. Maybe how are those next steps different and some of the learnings you have gained from the recent transition?

您觸及了某種網絡——ERP 流程。最近的實施是一項艱鉅的任務。聽起來您似乎對限制後續步驟的過渡影響的能力更有信心。也許接下來的步驟有何不同以及您從最近的過渡中獲得的一些經驗？

Yes, sure. So some of the next steps are different in that we're able to go live at one plant and isolate and therefore, limiting the impact, whereas with all of the central systems that were affecting customer ordering, inventory management and others this time that was more difficult. I think that as we've shared from an inventory visibility perspective and lessons learned, there's always more things that you're going to be able to do in terms of change management and other things. And those are the things that we will continue to focus on as we move forward into our plant phases.

是的，當然。因此，接下來的一些步驟有所不同，因為我們能夠在一個工廠上線並進行隔離，從而限制影響，而這次影響客戶訂購、庫存管理和其他方面的所有中央系統更加困難。我認為，正如我們從庫存可見性角度和經驗教訓分享的那樣，在變更管理和其他方面，您總是能夠做更多的事情。這些是我們在進入工廠階段時將繼續關注的事情。

Okay. And then in the third quarter due to the transition, as fulfillment normalizes, how should we think about, I guess, price/mix trends flowing through the next several quarters, considering both wraparound pricing, potentially more muted new pricing and then actual underlying mix? And how much of a contributor will be that underlying mix going forward?

好的。然後，在第三季度，由於轉型，隨著履約正常化，我猜我們應該如何考慮未來幾季的價格/組合趨勢，同時考慮環繞定價、可能更加溫和的新定價以及實際的基礎組合？這種潛在的組合對未來的貢獻有多大？

Yes. So as it relates to mix, we talked about the impact in fourth quarter and coming off of the ERP transition. As we go to fiscal '25, we will continue to see more favorable mix impact as we bring on our new capacity in American Falls, for example, where we are able to offer more premium products. So those are some of the things that you'll see by way of changes in mix. And then next year, we won't be lapping some of those lower-margin exits that we had made in fiscal '23.

是的。因此，就混合而言，我們討論了第四季度的影響以及 ERP 轉型的影響。當我們進入 25 財年時，我們將繼續看到更有利的組合影響，例如，我們在美國福爾斯引入新產能，在那裡我們能夠提供更多優質產品。這些是您將透過混合變化看到的一些事情。明年，我們將不會像 23 財年那樣進行一些低利潤退出。

We'll go next to Max Gumport with BNP Paribas.

我們將前往法國巴黎銀行 (BNP Paribas) 的 Max Gumport。

Turning back to the comments on slower restaurant traffic trends and your expectation that they'll be temporary in nature. I'm just curious what type of visibility you have right now that's giving you the confidence in seeing some improvement in restaurant trends in the horizon. I know you talked about the impact of the higher menu prices and how consumers will adjust to that eventually. But just curious what's impacting that confidence? And any sort of sense of time line for how we can see it play out?

回到關於餐廳客流量放緩趨勢的評論以及您對它們本質上是暫時的期望。我只是好奇你現在擁有什麼類型的可見性，可以讓你有信心看到未來餐廳趨勢的一些改善。我知道您談到了菜單價格上漲的影響以及消費者最終將如何適應。但只是好奇是什麼影響了這種信心？以及我們如何看待它的發揮的時間線？

Yes. So number one, we got the fry attachment rate has stayed pretty consistent. It's been above historical levels for the past 2, 3 years. So that's one thing. The other thing that we monitor continually is restaurant traffic every month that we look at, and while it's been slowing recently, as we've discussed on the call, we believe based on kind of how we model some things that we expect that to -- the consumer to get adjusted to the inflationary menu pricing, and we expect that to return here going forward.

是的。第一，我們得到的魚苗附著率保持相當穩定。過去兩三年一直高於歷史水準。所以這是一回事。我們持續監控的另一件事是我們每月觀察的餐廳客流量，雖然最近客流量一直在放緩，但正如我們在電話會議中討論的那樣，我們相信，基於我們對某些事物進行建模的方式，我們期望 - - 消費者要適應通貨膨脹的菜單定價，我們預計這種情況將在未來回歸。

So it's not a perfect, linear assumption that we're making. But over time, we think it's going to return back to in-store restaurant business.

所以我們所做的並不是一個完美的線性假設。但隨著時間的推移，我們認為它將回歸店內餐廳業務。

Yes. And the only other thing that I'd comment on that, we've talked a lot about in the past is related to French fries and the fact that they are one of the highest margin items on restaurant menus. And we will likely then continue to see pushing towards those types of products by the restaurants.

是的。我要評論的唯一一件事是，我們過去談論過很多與炸薯條有關的事實，以及它們是餐廳菜單上利潤最高的項目之一。然後我們可能會繼續看到餐廳推出這些類型的產品。

Got it. And then turning back to the sort of the backfilling of the contracts that you exit in '23, it feels like it's been pushed off a bit, right, given the ERP transition. But I'm just curious because right now, I feel like you're going to be trying to maintain relationships with customers that were impacted by the ERP transition.

知道了。然後回到 23 年退出的合約的回填，感覺好像它被推遲了一點，對吧，考慮到 ERP 的過渡。但我只是很好奇，因為現在，我覺得您將努力維持與受 ERP 轉型影響的客戶的關係。

So how far that has your ability to start to make progress on backfilling some of those contracts you exited with higher margin business has been pushed, is that more of a middle of '25-type event now? I'll leave it there.

那麼，您在回填您以較高利潤率業務退出的一些合約方面開始取得進展的能力已經達到了何種程度，現在這更像是「25 型事件」的中間階段嗎？我會把它留在那裡。

Yes. So we're on the front end of a lot of our contracting with customers right now, as I stated earlier, and we've got a plan put together as we start thinking about FY '25 and targeted customers and rebuilding the relationships with some of the customers that we impacted, unfortunately, with our ERP situation.

是的。因此，正如我之前所說，我們現在正處於與客戶簽訂許多合約的前端，當我們開始考慮 25 財年和目標客戶並與一些客戶重建關係時，我們已經制定了一個計劃。不幸的是，我們的ERP 情況影響了我們的客戶。

And it's going to take the next several months to work through all that. But I expect as our team will recapture that business will be targeted in our approach to that. And so it's going to take some time to rebuild those relationships. And we're going to be mindful as we always are at this time of year as we talk to our customers that we're contracting with on the opportunities that we feel we need to target and go after.

所有這些工作都需要接下來的幾個月才能完成。但我預計，隨著我們的團隊重新奪回業務，我們的方法將成為目標。因此，重建這些關係需要一些時間。當我們與客戶談論我們正在與我們認為需要瞄準和追求的機會簽訂合約時，我們將一如既往地在每年的這個時候保持警惕。

We'll go next to William Reuter with Bank of America.

接下來我們將與美國銀行聯繫威廉·路透社。

I just have two. The first is, at this point, are there any orders that continue to be delayed? I just wanted to put a finer point on that.

我只有兩個。首先是，目前還有訂單繼續延遲嗎？我只是想對此提出更明確的觀點。

We're back to our previous order fulfillment rates.

我們回到了先前的訂單履行率。

Okay. Good to hear. And then the second, given your early conversations with customers and the fact that you are in the midst of contract negotiations, have you gotten any sense that customers are leaning on you more than they would have in the past based upon the recent challenges that existed?

好的。很高興聽到。其次，考慮到您與客戶的早期對話以及您正在進行合約談判的事實，根據最近的挑戰，您是否感覺到客戶比過去更依賴您？

No, I don't -- we don't have any -- from a customer standpoint, we were communicating well with them. With the challenges we had, a lot of our bigger customers, we made sure they understood all the things we're going through. So generally, they didn't like it, but they understood. But there's no fallout from a lot of our bigger customers as we went through this. And we did our best to protect everybody as we could.

不，我沒有——我們沒有——從客戶的角度來看，我們與他們溝通良好。面對我們面臨的挑戰，我們的許多大客戶，我們確保他們理解我們正在經歷的所有事情。所以總的來說，他們不喜歡它，但他們理解。但在我們經歷這個過程時，我們的許多大客戶並沒有受到影響。我們竭盡全力保護每個人。

Got it. And actually, I have one more. I think the ERP implementation that's going on right now is just in North America and that you'll be doing it in international regions in the future. Is that right?

知道了。事實上，我還有一個。我認為目前正在進行的 ERP 實施僅在北美地區進行，未來將在國際地區實施。是對的嗎？

That's correct. So we did the central systems in North America. The next phase will be plant in North America. And then after that, we will go international.

這是正確的。所以我們在北美做了中央系統。下一階段將在北美建廠。然後，我們將走向國際。

We'll go next to Carla Casella with JPMorgan.

接下來我們將與摩根大通一起去卡拉·卡塞拉。

In the past, you've talked about M&A and internationally. Is that all kind of off the table for now until you get the ERP system done? Or are you still looking at opportunities? And can you just talk about what you're seeing in the market?

過去，您談到了併購和國際化。在 ERP 系統完成之前，這一切是不是都暫時不可能了？還是你還在尋找機會嗎？您能談談您在市場上看到的情況嗎？

Yes, it's not off the table. And I've been pretty clear on this that we're always continuing to evaluate international acquisition opportunities, certainly, the timing of those depends on -- it depends on the other side of the table, so to speak. So you can't always time these perfectly, and we'll continue to evaluate it. And if something presents itself, based on what's going on today, we're going to continue to move forward.

是的，這並不是不可能的。我對此非常明確，我們一直在繼續評估國際收購機會，當然，這些機會的時機取決於——可以這麼說，這取決於談判桌的另一邊。所以你不能總是完美地計時這些，我們將繼續評估它。如果根據今天發生的事情出現一些情況，我們將繼續前進。

But we've got to be mindful about what's going on in the organization. But you can't predict when these things are going to happen, we have a sense of it, but we're absolutely going to continue to pursue those.

但我們必須留意組織中正在發生的事情。但你無法預測這些事情何時會發生，我們有一種感覺，但我們絕對會繼續追求這些。

And has the market -- I mean, given the kind of softness in the QSR today internationally, is the market opening up more? Are there more -- are you getting more looks in the past? Anything you can give us on the market?

市場——我的意思是，考慮到當今國際快餐業的疲軟，市場是否更加開放？還有更多——過去你有更多的目光嗎？您可以在市場上給我們什麼嗎？

Yes. I mean I'm not going to get into a lot of specifics on that question obviously. But the thing to remember is, we have a belief in the long-term resilience of this category and have. And yes, we're dealing with some softness right now, we believe the category is going to return globally. And we're seeing some pockets of international markets that are performing well, as I stated in my prepared remarks. So over the long term, if something presents itself, we're absolutely going to evaluate it.

是的。我的意思是，顯然我不會詳細討論這個問題。但要記住的是，我們相信這一類別的長期彈性，並且已經做到了。是的，我們現在正在應對一些疲軟的問題，我們相信該類別將在全球回歸。正如我在準備好的演講中所說，我們看到一些國際市場表現良好。因此，從長遠來看，如果有東西出現，我們絕對會對其進行評估。

With no additional questions in queue. At this time, I'd like to turn the call back over to our speakers for any additional or closing remarks.

隊列中沒有其他問題。此時，我想將電話轉回給我們的發言人，以供補充或結束語。

This is Dexter. If you have any follow-up questions or like to schedule a call, please send me an e-mail and we can do so. Other than that, have a good day, and thanks for joining the call.

這是德克斯特。如果您有任何後續問題或想安排通話，請給我發送電子郵件，我們可以這樣做。除此之外，祝您有美好的一天，感謝您加入通話。

That will conclude today's call. We appreciate your participation.

今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。