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Operator
Operator
Good day and welcome to the Lamb Weston second quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings call.
美好的一天,歡迎參加 Lamb Weston 2025 財年第二季財報電話會議。
Today's conference is being recorded.
今天的會議正在錄製中。
At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Dexter Congbalay.
這次,我想把會議交給 Dexter Congbalay。
Please go ahead.
請繼續。
Dexter Congbalay - Investor Relations
Dexter Congbalay - Investor Relations
Good morning and thank you for joining us at the Lamb Weston second quarter of 2025 earnings call.
早安,感謝您參加 Lamb Weston 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。
Earlier today, we issued our earnings press release and posted our slide that will be used for today's call.
今天早些時候,我們發布了收益新聞稿,並發布了將用於今天電話會議的幻燈片。
You can both on our website at lambweston.com.
您可以造訪我們的網站lammbweston.com。
Please note that during our remarks, we'll make some forward-looking statements about the company's expected performance that are based on how we see things today.
請注意,在我們的發言中,我們將根據我們今天的看法,對公司的預期業績做出一些前瞻性陳述。
Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties.
由於風險和不確定性,實際結果可能存在重大差異。
Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in our SEC filings for more details on our forward-looking statements.
請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件中包含的警示性聲明和風險因素,以了解有關我們前瞻性聲明的更多詳細資訊。
Some of today's remarks include non-GAAP financial measures.
今天的一些評論包括非公認會計準則財務指標。
These non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered a replacement for and should be read together with our GAAP results.
這些非公認會計原則財務指標不應被視為替代我們的公認會計原則結果,而應與我們的公認會計原則結果一起閱讀。
You can find the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations in our earnings release in the appendix of our presentation.
您可以在我們簡報附錄中的收益發布中找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 調整表。
With me today are Tom Werner, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bernadette Madarieta, our Chief Financial Officer.
今天與我在一起的有我們的總裁兼執行長 Tom Werner;和我們的財務長 Bernadette Madarieta。
Let me now turn the call over the Tom.
現在讓我把電話轉給湯姆。
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Dexter.
謝謝你,德克斯特。
Good morning and thank you for joining our call today.
早安,感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。
Let me start with the leadership change we announced earlier today.
讓我從我們今天早些時候宣布的領導層變動開始。
As you have likely seen, I will be stepping down as CEO, and Mike Smith, our current COO, will become Lamb Weston's next President and CEO beginning January 3, 2025.
正如您可能已經看到的那樣,我將辭去執行長一職,現任營運長 Mike Smith 將從 2025 年 1 月 3 日開始成為 Lamb Weston 的下一任總裁兼執行長。
The Board and I believe now is the right time to transition to allow a new leader to guide Lamb Weston into its next chapter of growth.
董事會和我相信現在是過渡的最佳時機,讓新的領導者帶領 Lamb Weston 進入下一個成長篇章。
And I could be more thrilled to hand over the reins to Mike.
如果我將控制權交給麥克,我會更加興奮。
His appointment represents the culmination of a thoughtful years' long succession planning process by the Board, and we are confident he is the right leader to guide Lamb Weston forward.
他的任命代表了董事會多年來深思熟慮的繼任計劃過程的頂峰,我們相信他是指導 Lamb Weston 前進的正確領導者。
Over the course of a 17-year career at Lamb Weston, Mike has developed a deep understanding of all critical aspects of our business and operational opportunities and [durable] growth across multiple areas of the company.
在 Lamb Weston 17 年的職業生涯中,Mike 對我們的業務和營運機會的所有關鍵方面以及公司多個領域的[持久]成長有了深入的了解。
I've had the pleasure of working closely with Mike and have witness firsthand his value-based leadership style and steadfast focus on people as well as his thorough understanding of the business.
我很高興與麥克密切合作,並親眼目睹了他基於價值的領導風格、對人的堅定關注以及他對業務的透徹理解。
I'm confident that with Mike at the helm, Lamb Weston will drive profit and deliver value for our shareholders.
我相信,在 Mike 的領導下,Lamb Weston 將推動利潤並為我們的股東創造價值。
Now turning to our results.
現在轉向我們的結果。
Our second-quarter performance was below our expectations and not what we aim to achieve at Lamb Weston.
我們第二季的業績低於我們的預期,也不是我們在 Lamb Weston 實現的目標。
Slide 4 provides a snapshot of the key themes that we'll be discussing with you today.
第 4 投影片提供了我們今天將與您討論的關鍵主題的快照。
We expect the challenging operating environment will persist in the near term as weak restaurant traffic trends and additional capacity expansions announced by our competitors since our Investor Day last year add to the current imbalance in global industry supply and demand, especially outside North America.
我們預計,充滿挑戰的經營環境將在短期內持續存在,因為餐廳客流量趨勢疲軟,以及競爭對手自去年投資者日以來宣布的額外產能擴張,加劇了當前全球行業供需失衡,尤其是北美以外地區。
In this new reality, we're evaluating opportunities beyond our initial restructuring plan to adjust our operations, including reducing manufacturing and supply chain costs and operating expenses.
在這個新的現實中,我們正在評估最初重組計劃之外的機會來調整我們的運營,包括降低製造和供應鏈成本以及營運費用。
In addition, we're evaluating opportunities to drive topline by improving sales execution while also expanding our total addressable mobile market by leveraging proprietary technologies to serve nontraditional [freight] customers.
此外,我們正在評估透過改善銷售執行來推動營收的機會,同時也透過利用專有技術為非傳統[貨運]客戶提供服務來擴大我們的整體可尋址行動市場。
As we discussed on our last quarter's earnings call, we expect to significantly reduce our capital spending next year as we shift away from growth capital to focus on base, modernization, and environmental capital.
正如我們在上個季度的收益電話會議上討論的那樣,隨著我們從成長資本轉向關注基礎、現代化和環境資本,我們預計明年將大幅減少資本支出。
We expect these steps to increase our free cash flow, which would provide more flexibility to step up capital returns to our shareholders.
我們預計這些措施將增加我們的自由現金流,這將為提高股東的資本回報提供更大的靈活性。
We'll address each of these points during this call.
我們將在本次電話會議中逐一討論這些問題。
Let me now turn it over to Bernadette to discuss details of our second-quarter results.
現在讓我將其交給伯納黛特討論我們第二季業績的細節。
Bernadette Madarieta - Chief Financial Officer
Bernadette Madarieta - Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Tom, and good morning, everyone.
謝謝,湯姆,大家早安。
Starting on slide 5, you can see that net sales declined 8% compared to the year-ago quarter.
從投影片 5 開始,您可以看到淨銷售額與去年同期相比下降了 8%。
Volume declined 6%, primarily driven by declining restaurant traffic in the US in many of our key international markets.
銷量下降 6%,主要是由於我們許多主要國際市場的美國餐廳客流量下降。
Customer share losses, net of gain, and the carryover impact of our [divisions] last year to exit certain lower price and lower margin business in EMEA to strategically manage customer and product mix.
客戶份額損失(扣除收益後),以及我們的[部門]去年退出歐洲、中東和非洲地區某些較低價格和較低利潤業務以策略性管理客戶和產品組合的結轉影響。
While the effects of these three factors were largely in line with our expectation, the declines in sales and volume were more than what we anticipated for the quarter as we experienced incremental customer share losses in both business segments due to an increasingly competitive environment.
雖然這三個因素的影響在很大程度上符合我們的預期,但本季銷售額和銷售的下降幅度超出了我們的預期,因為競爭日益激烈的環境導致我們兩個業務部門的客戶份額不斷流失。
Price mix declined 2% as compared to the prior-year quarter, which was just below our target for the period.
與去年同期相比,價格組合下降了 2%,略低於我們的同期目標。
Our pricing actions in North America were in line with our expectation.
我們在北美的定價行為符合我們的預期。
However, pricing in our international markets with more competitive.
然而,我們的定價在國際市場上更具競爭力。
Channel and product mix was also in line with our expectations, but unfavorable versus the prior-year quarter, reflecting customer share losses exceeding customer gain.
通路和產品組合也符合我們的預期,但與去年同期相比不利,反映出客戶份額損失超過了客戶收益。
For North America segment specifically, sales declined 8% versus the prior-year quarter.
具體來說,北美市場的銷售額比去年同期下降了 8%。
Volume declined 5% and included the carryover impact of smaller and regional customer share losses and food away from home channels in the prior year and share losses in certain chain restaurant accounts.
銷售量下降了 5%,其中包括上一年規模較小的區域客戶份額損失和外帶管道以及某些連鎖餐廳帳戶份額損失的結轉影響。
The majority of the decline, however, was due to the drop in restaurant traffic in the US.
然而,下降的主要原因是美國餐廳客流量下降。
According to restaurant industry data providers, US restaurant traffic in the second quarter declined about 2% versus the prior year, although trends improved modestly versus our fiscal first quarter as QSR did continue to step up promotional activity.
根據餐飲業數據提供者的數據,第二季美國餐廳客流量較去年同期下降約 2%,但由於 QSR 確實持續加強促銷活動,趨勢較第一財季略有改善。
Traffic at QSR chains specializing in hamburgers in the second quarter declined about 1.5% versus the year-ago period.
第二季度,專營漢堡的快餐連鎖店的客流量比去年同期下降了約 1.5%。
We continue to be encouraged by the improving trend in traffic and the steady (inaudible) rate.
我們持續對流量的改善趨勢和穩定(聽不清楚)的流量感到鼓舞。
But as a reminder, many of these promotional meal deals have consumers trading down from a medium serving side to a small French fry serving side.
但要提醒的是,許多促銷餐品都讓消費者從中號的份量降到了小號的炸薯條份量。
As a result, while we benefit from improving traffic trend, the effect of the tradedown in serving sizes act as a partial and with some customers, a significant headwind to our volumes.
因此,雖然我們受益於流量趨勢的改善,但服務規模的下降對我們的銷售產生了部分影響,對某些客戶來說,這是一個重大阻力。
Price mix in North America declined 3%, reflecting the planned investments that we made to retain and attract volume as well as unfavorable channel and product mix.
北美的價格組合下降了 3%,反映出我們為保留和吸引銷售的投資以及不利的通路和產品組合。
For our international segment, sales declined 6% versus the prior-year quarter.
對於我們的國際部門,銷售額比去年同期下降了 6%。
Volume declined 6%, driven by several factors.
受多種因素影響,成交量下降 6%。
First, restaurant traffic declined or softened sequentially in many of our key international markets.
首先,我們許多主要國際市場的餐廳客流量連續下降或疲軟。
While restaurant traffic in the UK, our largest market in Europe was flat, traffic declined in Germany, France, and Spain.
雖然我們在歐洲最大的市場英國的餐廳客流量持平,但德國、法國和西班牙的客流量卻有所下降。
In Japan, QSR traffic grew versus the prior year, but decelerated versus our fiscal first quarter.
在日本,QSR 流量較上年有所成長,但較第一財季放緩。
Traffic growth in China remains soft.
中國的交通量成長依然疲軟。
Second, we experienced incremental customer share losses resulting from a more intense competitive environment, most notably in the Middle East and certain markets in Asia Pacific.
其次,由於競爭環境更加激烈,我們的客戶份額不斷流失,尤其是在中東和亞太地區的某些市場。
And third, we continued to realize the carryover effect of exiting certain lower price than lower margin business in EMEA.
第三,我們繼續實現了退出歐洲、中東和非洲地區某些價格低於低利潤業務的結轉效應。
This was the last quarter that this will serve as a headwind.
這是這將成為逆風的最後一個季度。
Price mix was flat versus the prior-year quarter, as incremental pricing actions to compete in key international markets offset the benefit of inflation driving pricing actions in India.
價格結構與去年同期持平,因為在主要國際市場競爭的增量定價行動抵消了印度通膨推動定價行動的好處。
Moving on from sale.
繼續銷售。
On slide 6, you can see that adjusted EBITDA saw $95 million versus the prior-year quarter to $282 million.
在投影片 6 中,您可以看到調整後的 EBITDA 為 9,500 萬美元,而去年同期為 2.82 億美元。
The decrease is largely attributable to a $135 million decline in adjusted gross profit.
這一下降主要歸因於調整後毛利下降了 1.35 億美元。
That was due primarily to four factors.
這主要是由於四個因素。
First, price mix declined due to the planned pricing actions to retain customers and attract incremental volume.
首先,由於計劃採取定價行動來留住客戶並吸引增量,價格組合有所下降。
Second, higher manufacturing costs per pound, which reflects input cost inflation and inefficiencies associated with lower production and lower factory and [potato] utilization rate.
其次,每磅的製造成本較高,這反映了投入成本的上漲以及與產量下降和工廠及馬鈴薯利用率較低相關的效率低下。
Third, we incurred incremental production costs related to unplanned facility downtime and additional startup costs associated with our new capacity expansion.
第三,我們產生了與計劃外設施停機相關的增量生產成本以及與新產能擴張相關的額外啟動成本。
And finally, while not impacting EBITDA, we incurred $16 million of higher depreciation expense that's largely related to our capacity expansion in China and Idaho that were completed last fiscal year.
最後,雖然沒有影響 EBITDA,但我們產生了 1,600 萬美元的較高折舊費用,這很大程度上與我們在上一財年完成的在中國和愛達荷州的產能擴張有關。
Adjusted SG&A declined $12 million to $165 million.
調整後的 SG&A 下降 1,200 萬美元,至 1.65 億美元。
We reduced adjusted SG&A despite an incremental $7 million of non-cash amortization related to our new ERP system that went live in the third quarter of fiscal 2024.
儘管與 2024 財年第三季上線的新 ERP 系統相關的非現金攤銷增加了 700 萬美元,但我們還是減少了調整後的 SG&A。
Continued execution of our expense reduction initiatives, including those associated with our restructuring plan, drove most of the improvement with the remainder largely due to lower performance-based compensation and benefit accrual.
持續執行我們的費用削減舉措,包括與重組計劃相關的舉措,推動了大部分改進,其餘部分主要是由於基於績效的薪酬和福利應計費用的降低。
For North America specifically, adjusted EBITDA declined $55 million to $267 million, driven by a combination of unfavorable price mix, lower sales volumes, higher manufacturing cost per pound and incremental production costs.
特別是在北美地區,由於不利的價格結構、銷量下降、每磅製造成本上升以及增量生產成本等綜合因素的推動,調整後的 EBITDA 下降了 5500 萬美元,至 2.67 億美元。
For our international segment, adjusted EBITDA declined $53 million to $47 million.
對於我們的國際部門,調整後的 EBITDA 下降了 5,300 萬美元至 4,700 萬美元。
Higher manufacturing cost per pound and incremental production costs drove the decline and the increasingly competitive environment in each region affected our ability to use price to fully offset inflation.
每磅製造成本的上升和增量生產成本推動了產量的下降,而每個地區競爭日益激烈的環境影響了我們利用價格完全抵消通貨膨脹的能力。
Moving to our liquidity position and cash flow on slide 7.
前往投影片 7 上的流動性狀況和現金流。
We ended the second quarter with about $80 million of cash and $1.2 billion available under our revolving credit facility.
第二季末,我們擁有約 8,000 萬美元的現金和 12 億美元的循環信貸額度。
Our net debt was $4 billion, which puts our leverage ratio at 3.4 times on a trailing 12-month basis.
我們的淨債務為 40 億美元,這使得我們過去 12 個月的槓桿率為 3.4 倍。
In the first half of the year, we generated nearly $430 million of cash from operations, which is down about $25 million versus the prior year due to lower earnings, which were partially offset by favorable changes in working capital.
今年上半年,我們從營運中產生了近 4.3 億美元的現金,由於盈利下降,與上年相比減少了約 2500 萬美元,但營運資本的有利變化部分抵消了這一影響。
Capital expenditures for the first half of the year, net of proceeds from blue chip swap transactions in Argentina were $486 million as we completed our expansion in the Netherlands during the second quarter and continued construction of our Argentina facility.
在扣除阿根廷藍籌掉期交易收益後,上半年的資本支出為 4.86 億美元,因為我們在第二季完成了在荷蘭的擴張,並繼續建造了阿根廷設施。
We expect our capital spending during the second half of the year to significantly decline as we continue to target total annual capital expenditures of $750 million in fiscal 2025.
我們預計下半年的資本支出將大幅下降,因為我們繼續將 2025 財年的年度資本支出總額目標定為 7.5 億美元。
During the quarter, we returned about $52 million to shareholders in the form of cash dividends.
本季度,我們以現金股利的形式向股東返還了約 5,200 萬美元。
We did not repurchase any shares under our share repurchase authorization during the second quarter.
第二季我們沒有根據股票回購授權回購任何股票。
I'll now turn it back over to Tom who will cover the next few slides.
現在我將把它轉回給 Tom,他將介紹接下來的幾張幻燈片。
Tom?
湯姆?
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Bernadette.
謝謝,伯納黛特。
At our Investor Day more than a year ago, we provided our view of the global frozen potato industry, including our estimates of future capacity additions as well as demand growth.
在一年多前的投資者日上,我們提供了對全球冷凍馬鈴薯產業的看法,包括對未來產能增加和需求成長的估計。
Much has changed since then, so we wanted to provide you with our updated view.
自那時以來發生了很多變化,因此我們希望為您提供最新的觀點。
As shown on slide 8, prior to COVID, frozen potato demand in the US and our key international markets was growing above historical rates, resulting in Lamb Weston in the industry at large operating above full capacity.
如投影片 8 所示,在新冠疫情爆發之前,美國和我們的主要國際市場的冷凍馬鈴薯需求成長速度高於歷史水平,導致該產業的 Lamb Weston 整體產能超負荷運作。
While COVID affected demand for a relatively short period, we saw evidence of frozen potato demand quickly rebounding to pre-COVID levels and historical growth rates.
雖然新冠疫情對需求的影響相對較短,但我們看到有證據表明冷凍馬鈴薯需求迅速反彈至新冠疫情前的水平和歷史增長率。
As a result, we strategically plan to expand capacity so we would be well positioned to serve our customers and capture our share of growing global demand.
因此,我們策略性地計劃擴大產能,以便我們能夠更好地服務我們的客戶,並在不斷增長的全球需求中佔據我們的份額。
So starting in early 2021 and knowing that it typically takes two to three years to plan, construct, and qualify a new facility, we were one of the first processors to announce major capacity expansions and modernization of our existing production lines.
因此,從 2021 年初開始,我們知道通常需要兩到三年的時間來規劃、建造和鑑定新工廠,因此我們是首批宣布大規模產能擴張和現有生產線現代化的加工商之一。
This included projects in China, Idaho, the Netherlands, and Argentina.
其中包括中國、愛達荷州、荷蘭和阿根廷的項目。
By the time of our Investor Day in October 2023, as you can see on the chart, some competitors have also announced capacity expansion projects.
到 2023 年 10 月投資者日時,正如您在圖表中看到的那樣,一些競爭對手也宣布了產能擴張項目。
Since then, legacy competitors as well as some relatively new market entrants, have announced plans to construct more than 3.5 billion pounds of additional capacity between 2024 and 2027.
此後,傳統競爭對手以及一些相對較新的市場進入者紛紛宣布計劃在 2024 年至 2027 年間新增超過 35 億磅的產能。
This primarily includes expansions in Europe, China, and Brazil, but also in relatively new frozen potato processing regions such as India and the Middle East.
這主要包括在歐洲、中國和巴西的擴張,但也包括印度和中東等相對較新的冷凍馬鈴薯加工地區的擴張。
While competitors' expansion announcements are always expected, we did not foresee the timing and aggregate scale of these additional expansions.
雖然競爭對手的擴張公告總是在預料之中,但我們並沒有預見到這些額外擴張的時間和總規模。
As you can see on slide 9, including these additional announcements, we expect the industry in total may add up to 8.6 billion pounds of incremental production capacity over the next four calendar years.
正如您在投影片 9 中看到的那樣,包括這些額外的公告,我們預計該行業在未來四個日曆年中的增量產能總計可能達到 86 億磅。
Given the near-term operating environment, we don't know whether all capacity expansions that have been announced will move forward and be operational by the end of calendar 2028.
考慮到近期的營運環境,我們不知道已宣布的所有產能擴張是否都會向前推進並在 2028 年底之前投入營運。
That said, if all these announced capacity additions are completed and on time and if there are no further capacity reductions, other than our strategic closure of Connell, Washington facility, we estimate total industry capacity may be more than 44 billion pounds by the end of 2028.
也就是說,如果所有這些宣布的產能增加都按時完成,並且如果沒有進一步的產能削減,除了我們戰略性關閉華盛頓州康奈爾工廠之外,我們估計到年底行業總產能可能超過 440 億磅2028 。
That's an additional 10 billion pounds of capacity being added between 2023 in 2028, which is 4 billion pounds more than what was added in the previous five years.
這意味著2023年至2028年間將額外增加100億磅的產能,比前五年增加的產能多了40億磅。
This has implications for industry capacity utilization.
這對產業產能利用率產生影響。
In 2024, we estimate capacity utilization is around 90%, which itself is down from the high 90s during the past couple of years due to the slowdown in global demand and the addition of nearly 3 billion pounds of incremental supply by (inaudible) less than our peers.
到 2024 年,我們估計產能利用率約為 90%,由於全球需求放緩以及近 30 億磅增量供應(聽不清楚)低於過去幾年的 90% 高位,產能利用率有所下降。的同儕。
Over the next few years, we expect capacity utilization may be in the mid to high 80s.
未來幾年,我們預計產能利用率可能在 80 左右。
Accordingly, and again, assuming all the announced expansion projects are completed or not significantly delayed, we expect the operating environment will remain challenged through the medium term, even if demand returns to historical rates as incremental capacity expansions add to the current imbalance and global industry supply and demand, especially outside North America.
因此,假設所有已宣布的擴建項目均已完成或沒有明顯推遲,我們預計,即使需求恢復到歷史水平,由於增量產能擴張加劇了當前的不平衡和全球行業的失衡,我們預計中期內運營環境仍將面臨挑戰。
As you see on slide 10, we have again been an early mover to implement actions to combat this challenging environment.
正如您在投影片 10 中看到的,我們再次率先採取行動應對這一充滿挑戰的環境。
Nearly three months ago, we announced a restructuring plan to address the imbalance and improve our cost structure.
近三個月前,我們宣布了一項重組計劃,以解決不平衡問題並改善成本結構。
This included reducing headcount, permanently closing our processing facility, and temporarily curtailing production lines and schedules.
這包括減少員工人數、永久關閉我們的加工設施以及暫時削減生產線和時間表。
We remain on track to deliver on the $55 million of cost savings associated with this plan in fiscal year 2025 and annualized cost savings of $85 million in fiscal 2026.
我們仍有望在 2025 財年實現與該計劃相關的 5,500 萬美元成本節約,並在 2026 財年實現年化成本節約 8,500 萬美元。
In addition, as I noted earlier, we're continuing to evaluate and execute opportunities to address our supply chain operations and support functions to effectively manage through this challenging environment, protect our profitability, and improve the free cash flow.
此外,正如我之前指出的,我們正在繼續評估和執行機會來解決我們的供應鏈營運和支援職能,以有效管理這一充滿挑戰的環境,保護我們的獲利能力並改善自由現金流。
We brought on a new Chief Supply Chain Officer about four months ago, and we're encouraged to see the opportunity you see in the team identified to reduce our manufacturing and supply chain costs.
大約四個月前,我們任命了一位新的首席供應鏈官,我們很高興看到您在團隊中看到的機會,以降低我們的製造和供應鏈成本。
In the back half of the year, we'll have more to say about these initiatives to improve performance and profitability.
今年下半年,我們將多談這些旨在提高績效和獲利能力的措施。
Let me now turn over the call to Bernadette to discuss our updated outlook.
現在讓我把電話轉給伯納黛特,討論我們最新的前景。
Bernadette Madarieta - Chief Financial Officer
Bernadette Madarieta - Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Tom.
謝謝,湯姆。
While we anticipated a challenging environment for the balance of fiscal 2025 during our last earnings call, our performance so far has fallen short of expectations.
儘管我們在上次財報電話會議上預計 2025 財年的環境將充滿挑戰,但迄今為止我們的業績未達預期。
As a result, we're reducing our financial targets for the year to reflect our performance in the second quarter as well as the increasingly competitive environment that Tom just described.
因此,我們正在降低今年的財務目標,以反映我們第二季的表現以及湯姆剛才所描述的競爭日益激烈的環境。
As you can see on slide 11, we are reducing our net sales target range to $6.35 billion to $6.45 billion from our previous range of $6.6 billion to $6.8 billion.
正如您在投影片 11 中看到的,我們將淨銷售額目標範圍從先前的 66 億美元至 68 億美元降至 63.5 億美元至 64.5 億美元。
Using the midpoint of the new sales range implies a sales decline of 1% versus fiscal 2024.
使用新銷售範圍的中點意味著銷售額與 2024 財年相比下降 1%。
We're also reducing our adjusted EBITDA target range to $1.17 billion to $1.21 billion from our previous estimate of around $1.38 billion.
我們還將調整後的 EBITDA 目標範圍從先前估計的 13.8 億美元左右下調至 11.7 億美元至 12.1 億美元。
Let me walk you through the key changes.
讓我帶您了解關鍵的變化。
On slide 12, you can see that about one-fourth of the reduction in our annual sales target reflects the shortfall versus expectations during the second quarter.
在投影片 12 上,您可以看到我們年度銷售目標減少的大約四分之一反映了第二季與預期的差距。
The remainder reflects the combination of factors that affect the second half of the year.
其餘的反映了影響下半年的因素的組合。
In North America, we expect incremental sales volume pressure due to the impact of unexpected loss of a chain restaurant customer, partially offset by the benefit of some new customer wins and the greater-than-forecasted impact from the downsizing in serving size related to promotional meals of our key customers.
在北美,我們預計,由於連鎖餐廳客戶意外流失的影響,銷售將面臨增量壓力,但部分新客戶贏得的收益以及與促銷相關的服務規模縮小帶來的超出預期的影響將部分抵消我們的主要客戶的膳食。
Our forecast for price mix in North America is down modestly from our previous estimate due to less favorable mix than we previously anticipated.
由於組合不如我們先前的預期,我們對北美價格組合的預測比先前的估計小幅下調。
Our forecast specifically for price is essentially unchanged as the pricing environment, while competitive, remains largely in line with our initial expectations.
我們對價格的預測基本上沒有變化,因為定價環境雖然具有競爭力,但在很大程度上仍與我們最初的預期一致。
In our international segment, we expect volume to be below our previous forecast, primarily reflecting incremental customer share losses resulting from a more intense competitive environment as well as softer restaurant traffic in key international markets.
在我們的國際業務中,我們預計銷售量將低於先前的預測,主要反映了競爭環境更加激烈以及主要國際市場餐廳客流量下降導致的客戶份額損失。
In addition, we expect incremental pricing pressure in each of our region, but for different reasons.
此外,我們預期每個地區的定價壓力都會增加,但原因各不相同。
In Asia Pacific and Latin America, we're experiencing an increasingly competitive environment as demand growth slows and as additional supply from Europe and newer entrants in India, China, and the Middle East gain share.
在亞太和拉丁美洲,隨著需求成長放緩,以及來自歐洲和印度、中國和中東的新進業者的額外供應,我們正面臨著競爭日益激烈的環境。
In EMEA, we're moderating some of the inflation-driven pricing actions that we implemented earlier this year to counter the initial surge in the market price of potatoes.
在歐洲、中東和非洲地區,我們正在調整今年稍早實施的一些通膨驅動的定價措施,以應對馬鈴薯市場價格最初的飆升。
In short, we expect the 1% decline in total Lamb Weston net sales versus the prior year will be driven by low- to mid-single-digit decline in price mix, partially offset by a low-single-digit increase in volume growth.
簡而言之,我們預計 Lamb Weston 淨銷售額總額將較上一年下降 1% 將由價格組合低至中個位數的下降推動,但銷量成長的低個位數成長部分抵消了這一下降。
With respect to adjusted EBITDA on slide 13, you can see that nearly one-third of the $190 million reduction in our annual adjusted EBITDA target reflects the shortfall in our performance in the second quarter versus expectations.
關於投影片 13 上的調整後 EBITDA,您可以看到,我們年度調整後 EBITDA 目標減少了 1.9 億美元,其中近三分之一反映了我們第二季業績與預期的差距。
Most of the remaining reduction in our EBITDA forecast is due to the impact of a more competitive environment in our key international markets, which is affecting volume and our ability to pass along input cost inflation.
我們 EBITDA 預測的剩餘減少大部分是由於我們主要國際市場競爭更加激烈的環境的影響,這影響了銷售量和我們轉嫁投入成本通膨的能力。
It's also due to the reductions in volume and less favorable mix in North America that I described earlier.
這也是由於我之前描述的北美銷售的減少和不太有利的組合。
In addition, relative to our previous forecast, we expect to increase manufacturing costs due to inefficiencies from lower asset and potato utilization.
此外,相對於我們先前的預測,由於資產和馬鈴薯利用率降低導致效率低下,我們預計製造成本將會增加。
With respect to SG&A, we're maintaining our current range of $680 million to $690 million, but will likely be towards the top end of the range.
關於SG&A,我們維持目前6.8 億至6.9 億美元的範圍,但可能會接近該範圍的上限。
As you can see on slide 14, based on our updated annual financial forecast, for the second half of the year, we expect to deliver sales of $3.1 billion to $3.2 billion, implying growth of 1% to 4% as compared with the prior-year period.
正如您在投影片 14 中看到的,根據我們最新的年度財務預測,我們預計下半年的銷售額將達到 31 億至 32 億美元,這意味著與之前相比成長 1% 至 4%。期間。
We expect higher volume in both international and North America will drive overall sales growth.
我們預計國際和北美銷售的增加將推動整體銷售成長。
We forecast that our international segment will contribute the majority of the overall volume increase, primarily reflecting the benefit of incremental volume from recent change and customer contract wins across each of our geographic region, net of region share losses, [lapping] the impact of cancelled shipments associated with last year's ERP transition as well as the impact of the voluntary [product] withdrawal that affected our results in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024.
我們預測,我們的國際業務將貢獻總銷售成長的大部分,主要反映了我們每個地理區域最近的變化和客戶合約贏得帶來的增量收益,扣除區域份額損失,[覆蓋]取消的影響與去年ERP 過渡相關的出貨量以及自願[產品]撤回的影響影響了我們2024 財年第四季的業績。
We expect North America volume growth to also reflect the benefit of (inaudible) cancelled shipments associated with last year's ERP transition.
我們預計北美銷售的成長也將反映出與去年 ERP 轉型相關的(聽不清楚)出貨取消帶來的好處。
Continued progress in regaining share of regional and small customers loss in the prior year and incremental volume from recent chain customer contract wins net of share losses.
在恢復上一年地區和小型客戶損失份額以及最近連鎖客戶合約增量(扣除份額損失後)方面繼續取得進展。
We expect overall price mix will be down in the second half of the year.
我們預計下半年整體價格結構將會下降。
In North America, we're forecasting price mix will decline as pricing actions more than offset benefits of improved product and channel mix.
在北美,我們預測價格組合將會下降,因為定價行為足以抵銷改進產品和通路組合帶來的好處。
As I previously noted, our price investments are consistent with our prior expectation.
正如我之前指出的,我們的價格投資與我們先前預期的一致。
In international, we're forecasting overall price mix will also decline due to pricing actions in response to competitive dynamics in key international guests.
在國際方面,我們預測由於主要國際客人的競爭動態而採取的定價行動,整體價格組合也將下降。
Moving to earnings.
轉向盈利。
In the second half, we expect to deliver $600 million to $640 million of adjusted EBITDA, which is in line with what we delivered in the prior period.
下半年,我們預計將實現 6 億至 6.4 億美元的調整後 EBITDA,這與我們上一期的交付結果一致。
Overall, we expect the benefit from incremental volume growth in both international and North America will drive EBITDA growth that will be largely offset by planned investments in price in North America, incremental price actions in key international markets, and the impact of input cost inflation and increased manufacturing costs due to inefficiencies from lower asset and potatoes utilization, which we are actively working to address.
總體而言,我們預計國際和北美銷售增量成長帶來的好處將推動 EBITDA 成長,而這將在很大程度上被北美計劃的價格投資、主要國際市場的增量價格行動以及投入成本通膨和由於資產和馬鈴薯利用率降低導致效率低下,導致製造成本增加,我們正在積極努力解決這個問題。
Now turning to our thoughts on capital expenditures on slide 15.
現在轉向我們對投影片 15 上的資本支出的看法。
As I previously noted, we're continuing to target total capital expenditures of approximately $750 million for fiscal 2025.
正如我之前指出的,我們繼續將 2025 財年資本支出總額目標定為約 7.5 億美元。
We spent about $485 million during the first half of the year as we completed our expansion in the Netherlands and continued construction of our Argentina facility.
今年上半年,我們花了約 4.85 億美元,完成了荷蘭的擴張並繼續建造阿根廷工廠。
Spending in the second half of the year, we'll focus on maintenance, modernization, and the continued construction of our Argentina facility, which is on track to be completed in mid-calendar 2025.
今年下半年,我們將專注於阿根廷工廠的維護、現代化和持續建設,該工廠預計將於 2025 年中期竣工。
For 2026, we're continuing to target total capital expenditures of approximately $515 million.
2026 年,我們繼續將總資本支出目標定為約 5.15 億美元。
We expect about $400 million will be for base, maintenance capital, and modernization effort, which is in line with our annual depreciation and amortization expense.
我們預計約 4 億美元將用於基礎、維護資本和現代化工作,這與我們的年度折舊和攤提費用一致。
The other $150 million will be for environmental capital projects that largely focused on wastewater treatment at our manufacturing facilities.
另外 1.5 億美元將用於環境資本項目,主要專注於我們生產設施的廢水處理。
As we highlighted last quarter, we expect to spend about $500 million in total over the next five years to comply with increasingly strict government regulations and permit limitations.
正如我們在上季度所強調的那樣,我們預計在未來五年內總共花費約 5 億美元,以遵守日益嚴格的政府法規和許可限制。
For at least a few years beyond 2026, given our expectation for lower industry capacity utilization, we do not expect to direct any significant investments to growth capital.
考慮到我們對產業產能利用率較低的預期,至少在 2026 年之後的幾年內,我們預計不會將任何重大投資用於成長資本。
We'll focus our spending on base and modernization capital, which together is generally up to 5% of sales, plus an additional $75 million or so each year for environmental projects.
我們將把支出重點放在基礎資本和現代化資本上,這些資本加起來通常高達銷售額的 5%,另外每年還會額外投入 7,500 萬美元左右用於環境項目。
As a result, fiscal 2026 should be a positive inflection point for our free cash flow.
因此,2026 財年應該是我們自由現金流的積極轉折點。
Note that the annual amounts that I just described exclude any capital we expect to deploy when we restart the next phase of our ERP implementation.
請注意,我剛剛描述的年度金額不包括我們在重啟下一階段 ERP 實施時預計部署的任何資本。
Turning to our thoughts on capital return to shareholders on slide 16.
轉向我們對投影片 16 上股東資本回報的看法。
Today, we announced a $250 million increase to our share repurchase authorization.
今天,我們宣布將股票回購授權增加 2.5 億美元。
With this increase, we have approximately $560 million remaining under our authorization.
此次增加後,我們的授權剩餘約 5.6 億美元。
As has been our practice, we'll continue to use a disciplined approach to repurchasing shares, but the increased authorization combined with the increase in expected free cash flow provides us with the flexibility to opportunistically buy back shares under the program.
按照我們的慣例,我們將繼續採用嚴格的方法回購股票,但授權的增加加上預期自由現金流的增加為我們提供了根據該計劃機會性回購股票的靈活性。
With respect to dividends, we declared a $0.01 increase in our quarterly dividend to $0.37 per share.
關於股息,我們宣布季度股息增加 0.01 美元,達到每股 0.37 美元。
This is consistent with our history of increasing our dividend each year since becoming a public company more than eight years ago.
這與我們八年多前成為上市公司以來每年增加股利的歷史是一致的。
Our target dividend payout ratio remains 25% to 35% of earnings per share.
我們的目標股利支付率仍為每股盈餘的25%至35%。
While we're above that range today, that's a result of temporarily depressed earnings.
雖然我們今天的價格高於該範圍,但這是盈利暫時低迷的結果。
Let me now turn the call back over to Tom for some closing comments.
現在讓我將電話轉回給湯姆,徵求一些結束語。
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Bernadette.
謝謝,伯納黛特。
So let me just summarize today by saying we expect the operating environment in the near term will remain challenging as additional capacity expansions are announced during a period of ongoing pressure on demand.
因此,我今天總結一下,我們預計短期內的營運環境仍將充滿挑戰,因為在需求持續面臨壓力的時期宣布了額外的產能擴張。
We are proactively adapting to this dynamic environment by strategically adjusting our footprint, reducing capital expenditures, managing our cost structure, and improving cash flow.
我們正在透過策略性調整我們的足跡、減少資本支出、管理成本結構和改善現金流來主動適應這種動態環境。
At the same time, we remain committed to returning capital to our shareholders through opportunistic share repurchases and steady increases in our dividend while continuing to maintain and modernize our production assets.
同時,我們仍然致力於透過機會性股票回購和穩定增加股利來向股東返還資本,同時繼續維護和現代化我們的生產資產。
Overall, we remain well positioned with the unique strength and scale that Lamb Weston system provides navigated top industry wide operating environment.
總體而言,憑藉 Lamb Weston 系統提供的頂級產業營運環境的獨特實力和規模,我們仍然處於有利地位。
We're taking actions to adapt our operations to weather these transitory challenges and make lasting improvements to our operations.
我們正在採取行動調整我們的運營,以應對這些暫時的挑戰,並對我們的營運做出持久的改進。
And we'll continue to leverage our solid fundamentals and balance sheet to continue to deliver value to our shareholders.
我們將繼續利用我們堅實的基本面和資產負債表,繼續為股東創造價值。
Before taking questions, I just want to end with saying again that servicing as Lamb Weston's President and Chief Executive Officer has been a privilege and an honor and I'm proud of what the entire Lamb Weston team has accomplished during these last eight years.
在回答問題之前,我想再次重申,擔任 Lamb Weston 總裁兼執行長是一種榮幸,我對整個 Lamb Weston 團隊在過去八年中所取得的成就感到自豪。
With Mike and his leadership team at the helm, Lamb Weston's future is in great hands.
在麥克和他的領導團隊的帶領下,蘭姆韋斯頓的未來掌握在偉大的手中。
Thank you for joining us this morning.
感謝您今天早上加入我們。
Now, let me turn it back over to Dexter.
現在,讓我把它轉回德克斯特。
Dexter Congbalay - Investor Relations
Dexter Congbalay - Investor Relations
Thanks, Tom.
謝謝,湯姆。
Before opening up the call for questions, I just want to note that Mike and Bernadette will be on the road with investors in January.
在開始提問之前,我只想指出,麥克和伯納黛特將於一月份與投資者一起上路。
We'll provide details for those meeting shortly after the start of the new year.
我們將在新年開始後不久提供這些會議的詳細資訊。
With that, we're now ready to take your questions.
至此,我們現在準備好回答您的問題了。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Andrew Lazar, Barclays.
(操作員指示)Andrew Lazar,巴克萊銀行。
Andrew Lazar - Analyst
Andrew Lazar - Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
Thanks very much.
非常感謝。
Tom, I guess, even assuming a 3% annual demand growth over time, and obviously that's a lot more than what we currently see.
湯姆,我想,即使假設隨著時間的推移,每年需求增加 3%,顯然這比我們目前看到的要高得多。
As you talked about capacity utilization by 2028, we'll only get back to around 90%.
正如您所談到的,到 2028 年產能利用率只會恢復到 90% 左右。
And that's certainly below where it's been historically in more the mid to high 90s.
這肯定低於 90 年代中後期的歷史水準。
I guess in light of this, what do you now view as Lamb Weston's sort of structural or normalized EBITDA margin?
我想有鑑於此,您現在如何看待 Lamb Weston 的結構性或標準化 EBITDA 利潤率?
And is it lower, or maybe roughly, how much lower is it than what you might have previously thought?
它比你之前想像的低嗎?
And then I've got a follow-up.
然後我有一個後續行動。
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, Andrew.
是的,安德魯。
I think based on our re-guide here today and going forward, assuming all that capacity comes online and there's no other industry adjustments to the footprint, we believe the go forward is in the range of (technical difficulty) on an EBITDA basis, 19% to 20%.
我認為,根據我們今天和未來的重新指南,假設所有產能都已上線,且足跡沒有其他行業調整,我們認為未來的 EBITDA 範圍在(技術難度)範圍內,19 % 至 20%。
Bernadette Madarieta - Chief Financial Officer
Bernadette Madarieta - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, and then Andrew, we'll expand margins by pricing to offset inflation over the longer term.
是的,然後安德魯,我們將透過定價來擴大利潤,以抵消長期的通貨膨脹。
But as Tom said, in the short- to medium-term environment, we're expecting 19% to 20% EBITDA margins.
但正如 Tom 所說,在中短期環境下,我們預期 EBITDA 利潤率為 19% 至 20%。
Andrew Lazar - Analyst
Andrew Lazar - Analyst
Thanks for that.
謝謝你。
And Tom, in light of the industry dynamic and some of the incremental capacity and such, why do you think other players have not yet made sort of similar decisions to curtail production or perhaps closed or shut or older, less efficient facilities, given all the new capacity that's coming on stream as you have?
湯姆,鑑於行業動態和一些增量產能等,您認為為什麼其他參與者尚未做出類似的決定來削減產量或可能關閉或關閉或舊的、效率較低的設施,因為所有即將投入使用的新產能?
Typically, from an industry that's been rational, that obviously seems to be sort of breaking down now quite materially.
通常情況下,從一個一直理性的行業來看,現在顯然似乎正在嚴重崩潰。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, Andrew, I think as Lamb Weston, we're managing our business based on the environment that we're operating in.
是的,安德魯,我認為作為 Lamb Weston,我們正在根據我們所處的營運環境來管理我們的業務。
And I'm certain that the rest of the industry is evaluating the dynamics right now and it remains to be seen.
我確信該行業的其他公司目前正在評估動態,但仍有待觀察。
But I would anticipate there may be some actions from our competitors, but it remains to be seen based on the environment.
但我預期我們的競爭對手可能會採取一些行動,但這還有待根據環境來觀察。
Bernadette Madarieta - Chief Financial Officer
Bernadette Madarieta - Chief Financial Officer
Yes, and Andrew, for the long term, we expect it's going to be a generally balanced based on the confidence and continued category growth, positive French fry attachment rate.
是的,安德魯,從長遠來看,我們預計,基於信心和持續的品類增長以及積極的炸薯條附著率,這將是一個總體平衡的局面。
But this is just a short term to medium term that we're going to have to work through this, and we'll continue to evaluate any additional opportunities to reduce costs and make sure we profitably manage the business as we move forward in this difficult environment.
但這只是我們必須解決的短期到中期問題,我們將繼續評估任何額外的降低成本的機會,並確保我們在這段困難時期前進時能夠有利地管理業務。
Andrew Lazar - Analyst
Andrew Lazar - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Peter Galbo, Bank of America.
彼得‧加爾博,美國銀行。
Peter Galbo - Analyst
Peter Galbo - Analyst
Hey, good morning.
嘿,早安。
Thank you for the question.
謝謝你的提問。
Tom, I actually wanted to spend some time on the international business because I think there's a lot of moving parts there that maybe are not fully appreciated.
湯姆,我實際上想花一些時間在國際業務上,因為我認為那裡有很多變化的部分可能沒有得到充分的重視。
So maybe we can start with Europe.
所以也許我們可以從歐洲開始。
I mean, I think you called out some incremental pressure.
我的意思是,我認為你提出了一些增量壓力。
It seems like you're expecting more.
看來你還期待更多。
I'm not sure how much of that is tied to the fact that you were expecting maybe a tighter potato crop this year that ended up coming in better and so competitors feel the ability to kind of price discount a bit more on.
我不確定這在多大程度上與這樣一個事實有關:您預計今年馬鈴薯收成可能會收緊,但結果卻更好,因此競爭對手覺得有能力進一步打折。
So maybe if you can start with that on Europe.
所以也許你可以從歐洲開始。
And then as it relates to Asia, calling out the incremental pressure and I think the pressure that you're seeing now, how do you think about that with already existing -- in light of the capacity that's coming?
然後,就與亞洲相關的問題而言,我認為您現在看到的壓力越來越大,根據即將到來的產能,您如何看待已經存在的壓力?
So why would it not necessarily get worse?
那麼為什麼情況不一定會變得更糟呢?
In some of those markets, as this slide kind of outlines there's quite a bit of capacity that's expected to come online.
正如這張投影片所概述的,在其中一些市場中,預計將有相當多的產能上線。
So I know there's a lot there, but maybe if you could address again Europe and then the Asian markets kind of separately would be helpful.
所以我知道有很多東西,但也許如果你能再談談歐洲和亞洲市場,會有所幫助。
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes.
是的。
So Europe, initially, the crop was projected to be below average.
因此,歐洲的收成最初預計將低於平均值。
They recovered through the growing season.
他們在生長季節恢復了。
So you had some initial high-cost oven potatoes the industry procured, and then the crop came down.
因此,該行業最初採購了一些高成本的烤箱土豆,然後產量下降了。
So with that and the competitiveness of that market, it's been difficult to give the inflation pass-through in terms of to the customer.
因此,考慮到這一點以及該市場的競爭力,很難將通貨膨脹傳遞給客戶。
So that's really driving the pressure on the European market.
所以這確實給歐洲市場帶來了壓力。
The other part of your question in terms of Asia, I would say that one of the -- we're getting some traction.
你的問題的另一部分是關於亞洲的,我想說的是,我們正在獲得一些關注。
But as you recall, when we had our ERP challenges, we protected a lot of the North American customers and we had some impact on our international, specifically in Asia customers.
但正如您所記得的,當我們遇到 ERP 挑戰時,我們保護了許多北美客戶,並對我們的國際客戶(特別是亞洲客戶)產生了一些影響。
And so while the team's doing a great job winning back some of that business, it's just a little bit more competitive than we anticipated and we'll be going forward.
因此,雖然團隊在贏回部分業務方面做得很好,但它的競爭力比我們預期的要高一些,我們將繼續前進。
Bernadette Madarieta - Chief Financial Officer
Bernadette Madarieta - Chief Financial Officer
And Tom, the only thing I'd add to that in the Asian market, with the increased capacity that's come online there, it becomes more of an export market than it ever has been and we'll continue to look for that as opportunity to move sales profitably as well.
湯姆,我唯一要補充的是,在亞洲市場,隨著那裡產能的增加,它比以往任何時候都更像是一個出口市場,我們將繼續尋找機會也能帶動銷售獲利。
Peter Galbo - Analyst
Peter Galbo - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Thanks for that.
謝謝你。
And then just on the back of Andrew's question around EBITDA margins, if I can take it up to the gross margin level, there's been obviously quite a bit of deleverage as a result of, I think, idling the capacity.
然後,就安德魯關於 EBITDA 利潤率的問題而言,如果我能把它提高到毛利率水平,我認為,由於產能閒置,顯然有相當多的去槓桿化。
Bernadette, I think you called out some other factors that hopefully we can go through.
伯納黛特,我認為你提到了一些其他因素,希望我們能夠解決這些問題。
But I guess the question is, if the deleverage -- is it more than you expected or are there just other manufacturing elements that have come in that again, this gross margin now we run out and at a significantly lower level?
但我想問題是,如果去槓桿化——是否超出了你的預期,或者是否有其他製造要素再次出現,那麼我們現在的毛利率已經耗盡並且處於明顯較低的水平?
Thanks very much.
非常感謝。
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes.
是的。
We've had some production manufacturing challenges early this fiscal year in terms of efficiencies and plants running, throughput, and hitting production schedules.
在本財年初期,我們在效率和工廠運作、吞吐量和生產進度方面遇到了一些生產製造挑戰。
So that's been really disappointing.
所以這真的很令人失望。
We've got a new Chief Supply Chain Officer who is focused on that going forward.
我們任命了一位新的首席供應鏈官,他將專注於未來的工作。
And we have a number of different things identified and we are seeing improvements.
我們已經確定了許多不同的事情,並且正在看到改進。
But as we continue to focus on production improvements, that's going to take some time to get us back to normal operating efficiency levels.
但隨著我們繼續專注於生產改進,我們需要一些時間才能恢復到正常的營運效率水準。
Bernadette Madarieta - Chief Financial Officer
Bernadette Madarieta - Chief Financial Officer
Yes.
是的。
And then just a reminder, that relates to the back half margins.
然後提醒一下,這與後半邊距有關。
Seasonally, we'll always see gross margins in the third quarter be a little bit higher than in the fourth quarter.
從季節性來看,我們總是會看到第三季的毛利率略高於第四季。
Not only will it be affected by seasonality, but we'll have the absence of some of those things that affected us in the first half of the year related to the product withdrawal and some of the inventory write-offs that we had previously talked about.
它不僅會受到季節性的影響,而且我們將不會出現上半年影響我們的一些事情,這些事情與我們之前討論過的產品撤回和一些庫存沖銷有關。
Operator
Operator
Tom Palmer, Citi.
湯姆·帕爾默,花旗銀行。
Thomas Palmer - Analyst
Thomas Palmer - Analyst
Morning.
早晨。
Thanks for the question.
謝謝你的提問。
I wanted to clarify on the customer losses that were not expected.
我想澄清一下意外的客戶損失。
To what extent was pricing the determinant of these losses?
定價在多大程度上是這些損失的決定因素?
I know there was mention in Asia of some ERP challenges, so I'm just trying to understand like in customer service, which part of the consideration here with some of those lack of wins that were expected?
我知道在亞洲提到了一些 ERP 挑戰,所以我只是想了解一下,例如在客戶服務方面,這裡考慮的哪一部分與預期的一些勝利有關?
Bernadette Madarieta - Chief Financial Officer
Bernadette Madarieta - Chief Financial Officer
Yes, as it relates to customer losses, every year we go into the negotiation and it's a very competitive environment.
是的,因為這與客戶損失有關,所以我們每年都會進行談判,這是一個競爭非常激烈的環境。
And some of that's going to be related to price.
其中一些與價格有關。
There wasn't necessarily any ERP or other industry service factors that all.
不一定有任何 ERP 或其他行業服務因素。
We continue to service our customers.
我們繼續為我們的客戶提供服務。
But it's a competitive environment, more competitive than we originally thought it was going to be as we entered into the second quarter.
但這是一個競爭激烈的環境,比我們進入第二季時最初預期的競爭更加激烈。
Thomas Palmer - Analyst
Thomas Palmer - Analyst
Understood.
明白了。
Thank you.
謝謝。
I did see the expanded buyback program.
我確實看到了擴大的回購計劃。
How aggressive, I guess, are you willing to be as you watch the shares, maybe, that
我想,當你觀察股票時,你願意表現得有多激進,也許,
(inaudible)?
(聽不清楚)?
Bernadette Madarieta - Chief Financial Officer
Bernadette Madarieta - Chief Financial Officer
Yes.
是的。
So as we move forward and I mentioned the back half of the year, we're going to have more free cash flow because most of our capital investments were made in the first half of the year.
因此,當我們向前邁進時,我提到了下半年,我們將擁有更多的自由現金流,因為我們的大部分資本投資都是在上半年進行的。
As we have more free cash flow, we're going to opportunistically be in the market and buy back shares.
由於我們有更多的自由現金流,我們將趁機進入市場並回購股票。
And we're excited to have the increased authorization that we announced today as well, the additional $250 million as we move forward.
我們很高興今天宣布增加授權,隨著我們的進展,將額外增加 2.5 億美元。
We'll leave it at that.
我們就這樣吧。
But again, we'll have that additional free cash flow as we focus more on maintenance and base, capital, and modernization efforts moving forward.
但同樣,隨著我們更加關注維護和基礎、資本和現代化工作的進展,我們將擁有額外的自由現金流。
Thomas Palmer - Analyst
Thomas Palmer - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Ken Goldman, J.P. Morgan.
肯‧戈德曼,摩根大通。
Kenneth Goldman - Analyst
Kenneth Goldman - Analyst
Hi, the [activist] reiterated his opinion this morning that in addition to management changes, Lamb requires significant Board change or should be sold, just to quote them.
大家好,這位[活動家]今天早上重申了他的觀點,除了管理層變動之外,Lamb 還需要對董事會進行重大變動,或者應該被出售,只是為了引用它們。
I know you don't -- have every Board member's intention, but Tom, you're on the Board, you may have some insight here.
我知道您並不了解每位董事會成員的意圖,但是湯姆,您是董事會成員,您可能對此有一些見解。
I'm just curious as to your belief at this time that there will be meaningful Board changes that the Board is open to Lamb being sold?
我只是好奇您目前是否相信董事會會發生有意義的變化,董事會對出售 Lamb 持開放態度?
And if you can't comment, do you at least know if the company plans on issuing a formal response to the activist's letter?
如果您無法發表評論,您是否至少知道該公司是否計劃對活動人士的信函做出正式回應?
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ken, we're here today to talk about earnings.
肯,我們今天在這裡討論收入問題。
Our outlook, we'll just go on to business and more importantly, the transition about Mike running the company going forward.
我們的展望是,我們將繼續開展業務,更重要的是,麥克將繼續管理公司的過渡。
So I'll leave it at that.
所以我就這樣吧。
But that's what we're here to talk about today.
但這就是我們今天要討論的內容。
Kenneth Goldman - Analyst
Kenneth Goldman - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Following up, how do you see in terms of guidance, I know there's a lot of moving pieces in the back half, certainly some easier comparisons.
接下來,您如何看待指導方面的內容,我知道後半部分有很多移動的部分,當然還有一些更容易的比較。
Just as we think about underlying volume trends rate, excluding changes to customers, are you expecting any kind of improvement sequentially in consumer demand for your products?
正如我們考慮基本銷售趨勢率一樣,不包括客戶的變化,您是否預期消費者對您產品的需求會出現任何形式的改善?
Again, just on a like-for-like basis, if that's even possible to kind of parse out?
再說一次,只是在同類的基礎上,是否有可能解析出來?
Bernadette Madarieta - Chief Financial Officer
Bernadette Madarieta - Chief Financial Officer
Yes, we are expecting incremental volume from customer wins that I think even previously we've been talking about the fact that we start seeing the benefit of those in the third quarter. (inaudible) we are seeing the impact of that.
是的,我們預計客戶贏得的數量會增加,我認為甚至之前我們一直在談論這樣一個事實,即我們在第三季度開始看到這些好處。 (聽不清楚)我們正在看到其影響。
So a lot of positive momentum there, particularly in the international segment.
那裡有很多積極的勢頭,特別是在國際領域。
Kenneth Goldman - Analyst
Kenneth Goldman - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Robert Moskow, TD Cowen.
羅伯特·莫斯科,TD·考恩。
Robert Moskow - Analyst
Robert Moskow - Analyst
Hi, thanks.
你好,謝謝。
Similar to Ken's question, are there any assumptions in your back half about regaining customers that you lost from the ERP disruption?
與 Ken 的問題類似,您的後半部分是否有任何關於重新獲得因 ERP 中斷而失去的客戶的假設?
Do you have to get new business wins in the back half starting from today in order to achieve those numbers?
為了實現這些數字,您是否必須從今天開始在下半年贏得新的業務?
Bernadette Madarieta - Chief Financial Officer
Bernadette Madarieta - Chief Financial Officer
The numbers that we've included in the back half of the year include all of our line of sight to customer wins that we have in place.
我們在今年下半年納入的數字包括我們對客戶勝利的所有關注。
So no, there isn't a large amount in there that is unknown business wins.
因此,不存在大量未知的業務勝利。
Robert Moskow - Analyst
Robert Moskow - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
And a quick follow-up.
並快速跟進。
You lost another chain customer in North America.
您又失去了北美的連鎖客戶。
Is there any concerns about reputation risk from the missteps in calendar 2024?
2024 年的失誤是否會帶來聲譽風險?
What are your customers saying about their willingness to trust Lamb Weston as a supplier?
您的客戶對信任 Lamb Weston 作為供應商的意願有何評價?
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes.
是的。
So in terms of really, across the Board from a customer standpoint, certainly, we've had to address and repair some of those relationships.
因此,從客戶的角度來看,我們確實必須解決和修復其中一些關係。
But by and large, I think we're -- through most of the challenging discussions we've had, it takes time.
但總的來說,我認為我們——透過我們所進行的大多數具有挑戰性的討論,這需要時間。
But I feel great about where we are with our large customers.
但我對我們與大客戶的關係感到非常滿意。
And even some of the foodservice channel business, it's taken us more time than what we had previously anticipated to regain some of those accounts that were impacted by some of the challenges we had a year ago.
即使是一些餐飲服務通路業務,我們也花了比我們之前預期更多的時間來恢復一些受到一年前挑戰影響的帳戶。
Robert Moskow - Analyst
Robert Moskow - Analyst
Okay, thank you.
好的,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Rob Dickerson, Jefferies.
羅布·迪克森,杰弗里斯。
Robert Dickerson - Analyst
Robert Dickerson - Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
Thanks so much.
非常感謝。
Tom, maybe just kind of a basic question for you.
湯姆,也許這對你來說只是一個基本問題。
On the [Connell] capacity, you don't see to Connell online over the next three, four years.
就[康奈爾]能力而言,你在未來三四年內看不到康奈爾在線。
What do you think drove those players to decide all that capacity there, just given the operating backdrop globally, number one.
考慮到全球營運背景,您認為是什麼促使這些參與者決定那裡的所有產能,這是第一名。
And then number two, we've always (inaudible) or spoken about certainly the fragmented market obviously in the United States with a ton of opportunity to [defragment] globally.
第二,我們總是(聽不清楚)或談到美國的碎片化市場,在全球範圍內有大量的[碎片整理]機會。
But now, kind of what we're hearing as well, that fragmentation at [QS] actually is causing some of this issue because you have some of these smaller players that are medium and
但現在,我們也聽到了這樣的情況,[QS] 的分裂實際上導致了這個問題,因為有一些規模較小的中型玩家
(inaudible).
(聽不清楚)。
Let's add this new capacity because maybe we can get some of the margin, too, we can get some that profit, too.
讓我們加入這個新產能,因為也許我們也可以獲得一些利潤,我們也可以獲得一些利潤。
It just seems clearly like this is the first time this much has been added outside the US and doesn't sound like we're talking about kind of the core three other players that we normally discuss when we talk about in the US.
顯然,這是第一次在美國以外添加這麼多內容,聽起來不像我們在談論我們在美國談論時通常會討論的其他三個核心參與者。
Thanks.
謝謝。
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, Rob.
是的,羅布。
So when you step back and you go look at between 2017 and 2022, there's about 3 billion pounds that were added in the industry and all that capacity got utilized based on the demand growth.
因此,當您退後一步,看看 2017 年至 2022 年期間,該行業新增了約 30 億英鎊,並且所有產能都根據需求增長得到了利用。
And as I said in my remarks, two, three years ago, as we saw demand recovering at historical rates, we made a strategic decision to expand our footprint.
正如我在演講中所說,兩三年前,當我們看到需求以歷史速度復甦時,我們做出了擴大足蹟的策略決定。
Subsequent to that, obviously, there's been some additional capacity expansions in Europe, India, and China as well as North America that I think the industry was seeing the same category growth rates.
顯然,隨後歐洲、印度、中國以及北美出現了一些額外的產能擴張,我認為該行業也看到了相同的類別成長率。
The environment we're dealing with today is -- we're seeing restaurant slowdown in a lot of markets.
我們今天面臨的環境是——我們看到許多市場的餐廳業務放緩。
And so I think the industry has seen the same thing in terms of category growth and it's slowed down.
因此,我認為該行業在品類成長方面也看到了同樣的情況,而且成長速度已經放緩。
We view this as a transitory situation.
我們認為這是暫時的情況。
And I think as I said earlier, some of the capacity announcements, we'll see if they actually come to fruition based on the environment or they're delayed.
我認為正如我之前所說,一些產能公告,我們將看看它們是否真的根據環境實現或被推遲。
So I think it's a combination of the industry's kind of view on this -- the category is the same and the category has changed, and that's the big driver.
所以我認為這是行業對此的看法的結合——類別是相同的,類別已經發生了變化,這是最大的驅動力。
Robert Dickerson - Analyst
Robert Dickerson - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Fair enough.
很公平。
And then Bernadette, I think you got a little nitpicky here, but there is the one slide, right, when you kind of map out that CapEx.
然後伯納黛特,我認為你在這裡有點挑剔,但有一張幻燈片,對吧,當你繪製資本支出時。
We talked about the CapEx kind of starting to come off, obviously [growth] CapEx from 2026.
我們談到了資本支出開始下降,顯然從 2026 年開始資本支出[成長]。
And I think the total numbers, so for CapEx is $550 million, which is similar to what you've spoken to in this past, but there is that little circle, right?
我認為資本支出總額為 5.5 億美元,這與您過去所說的類似,但有一個小圓圈,對吧?
It says 68%, which I'm assuming, as you look at the chart, there are 68% of sales implied.
它說 68%,我假設,當你查看圖表時,隱含了 68% 的銷售額。
Now clearl,y you've guided to '25, right?
現在很明顯,你已經引導到'25了,對吧?
We know in CapEx, we can kind of reverse engineer to get to what you think your implied sales would be in '26 to get to 68%?
我們知道,在資本支出方面,我們可以進行逆向工程,以達到您認為 26 年隱含銷售額將達到 68% 的水平?
It seems a little high, let's say, on the sales side.
比如說,在銷售方面,這個數字似乎有點高。
Just to clarify, like you're very comfortable with the $550 million?
澄清一下,您對 5.5 億美元感到滿意嗎?
I guess we'll see if it winds up being 68% of sales, put it that way.
我想我們會看看它最終是否佔銷售額的 68%,這麼說吧。
Bernadette Madarieta - Chief Financial Officer
Bernadette Madarieta - Chief Financial Officer
Absolutely.
絕對地。
I'm very comfortable with the $550 million.
我對這 5.5 億美元感到非常滿意。
Okay, great.
好的,太好了。
All right, I'll pass it on.
好的,我會轉達的。
Thanks a lot.
多謝。
Operator
Operator
Alexia Howard, Bernstein.
亞歷克西婭·霍華德,伯恩斯坦。
Alexia Howard - Analyst
Alexia Howard - Analyst
Good morning, everyone.
大家早安。
So [flowing] tends to be on the demand side of the equation, you talked a lot about capacity and competitors this morning.
因此,[流動]往往是等式的需求方,您今天早上談論了很多關於產能和競爭對手的問題。
What does your research is telling you about the reasons for the weak consumer demand?
您的研究告訴您消費者需求疲軟的原因是什麼?
And I imagine the reasons might be quite different between US and Europe.
我想美國和歐洲的原因可能會大不相同。
And specifically, are you seeing any impact at the moment about on the uptake of GLP-1 weight loss drugs you keep on hearing US on?
具體來說,您目前是否看到對您不斷聽到 US 報告的 GLP-1 減肥藥物的吸收有任何影響?
I'm just wondering how that informs your expectations about improvement in demand going forward?
我只是想知道這如何影響您對未來需求改善的預期?
And then I have a follow-up.
然後我有一個後續行動。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Bernadette Madarieta - Chief Financial Officer
Bernadette Madarieta - Chief Financial Officer
Sure.
當然。
As it relates to US demand, most of the decline in demand versus the prior year relate to there being the fifth consecutive quarter where consumers are continuing to face inflation, and we've seen declines in restaurant traffic.
由於與美國需求相關,需求與前一年相比的下降大部分與消費者連續第五個季度繼續面臨通膨有關,我們已經看到餐廳客流量下降。
So that's the primary reason that we're seeing that as it affects our business than more value promotion meals.
所以這是我們看到它影響我們業務的主要原因,因為它比更有價值的促銷餐更能影響我們的業務。
And when those value promotion meals drive the increased traffic, we see consumers trading down and there's been a bigger impact on that and we've adjusted then are our forecast accordingly.
當這些超值促銷餐推動流量增加時,我們看到消費者的交易量下降,對此產生了更大的影響,我們相應地調整了我們的預測。
And if we turn to the international market, overall, the restaurant traffic trends there have slowed sequentially as well as compared with the first quarter.
如果我們轉向國際市場,總體而言,那裡的餐廳客流量趨勢比第一季連續放緩。
They're continuing to adjust to many price inflation as well.
他們也在繼續適應許多價格通膨。
We have not, though, seen a large impact from GLP-1 based on everything that we've seen to date.
然而,根據我們迄今為止所看到的一切,我們還沒有看到 GLP-1 產生巨大的影響。
We'll continue to monitor it.
我們將持續關注。
But from a demand perspective, we're not expecting anything significant in the long-term.
但從需求角度來看,我們預期長期來看不會有任何重大變化。
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Hi Alexia, just one thing I also stated our (inaudible) the fry attachment rates have been consistent and steady.
你好,Alexia,我還說過一件事,我們的(聽不清楚)魚苗附著率一直是一致且穩定的。
So it's -- when people are going to restaurants, they're buying fries at the same time, like they usually did.
所以,當人們去餐廳時,他們會像平常一樣同時購買薯條。
They might be now buying a smaller fry, but at least they're still buying the fries when they go to the restaurants at the same rate.
他們現在可能會購買較小的薯條,但至少當他們去餐廳時,他們仍然以相同的價格購買薯條。
Alexia Howard - Analyst
Alexia Howard - Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
Thank you for that.
謝謝你。
And then as a follow-up, you mentioned (technical difficulty) some opportunities with nontraditional customers.
然後,作為後續行動,您提到了(技術難度)非傳統客戶的一些機會。
Can I ask you about how large those markets are and exactly what they are that you're going after?
我可以問一下這些市場有多大以及您想要的到底是什麼嗎?
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes.
是的。
So Alexia, I'm not going to get into specifics in terms of volume potential and specific customer opportunities.
Alexia,我不會詳細討論銷售潛力和特定客戶機會的細節。
But the way to think about it is things that we've done in the past with some of our customers that traditionally didn't offer fries and/or tater tots, that's some of the things we're looking at with some potentially new customer entrance into the frozen potato category.
但思考這個問題的方法是我們過去與一些傳統上不提供薯條和/或土豆泥的客戶所做的事情,這就是我們正在與一些潛在的新客戶一起考慮的一些事情進入冷凍馬鈴薯類別。
And I'll just leave it at that.
我就這樣吧。
Alexia Howard - Analyst
Alexia Howard - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
I'll pass it on.
我會把它傳遞下去。
Operator
Operator
Steve Powers, Deutsche Bank.
史蒂夫鮑爾斯,德意志銀行。
Stephen Powers - Analyst
Stephen Powers - Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
Thanks.
謝謝。
I wanted to go back to capacity utilization from a slightly different perspective.
我想從稍微不同的角度回到產能利用率。
When you talk about the low 90s utilization today, I mean, how does Lamb's utilization compared to that [emission] benchmark?
當您今天談論 90 年代的低利用率時,我的意思是,Lamb 的利用率與 [排放] 基準相比如何?
I guess what I'm trying to get at is how much of the industry [slack] is in your business?
我想我想了解的是,您的業務中有多少行業[閒置]?
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes.
是的。
So this footprint adjustments we made several months ago brought us back up into the low 90 range, and that's the reason we did it.
因此,我們幾個月前進行的足跡調整使我們回到了 90 的低範圍,這就是我們這樣做的原因。
We feel comfortable about where our utilization is today.
我們對目前的利用率感到滿意。
And as I stated earlier, we've had some challenges across our footprint with some unplanned downtime and other maintenance issues that we're addressing.
正如我之前所說,我們在整個足跡中遇到了一些挑戰,包括一些非計劃性停機和我們正在解決的其他維護問題。
We're seeing more efficient utilization in the past period and it's improving.
我們看到過去一段時間的利用率提高了,而且正在改善。
But overall, the reasons we made the changes we made was to get our utilization rate kind of in the low 90s and we'll improve on that.
但總的來說,我們做出這些改變的原因是為了讓我們的利用率達到 90 左右,我們會對此進行改進。
Stephen Powers - Analyst
Stephen Powers - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
And then I wanted to just dig back into the business that's been slower to win back than you would hope.
然後我想重新挖掘贏回速度比你希望的要慢的業務。
I guess, to boil it down, I guess the question is really what's the sales pitch to those accounts?
我想,歸根結底,我想問題實際上是這些帳戶的銷售宣傳是什麼?
And is there any levers you can lean on besides price to the extent of the competition?
除了價格之外,還有什麼可以依靠的槓桿來達到競爭的程度嗎?
You're now servicing those accounts -- is doing a good job.
你現在正在為這些帳戶提供服務——做得很好。
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Some of it is price.
其中一些是價格。
There's no question about it.
毫無疑問。
But we also -- as we're talking to those customers, it's talking about different products, different innovation potentially, some -- if they're doing like value-added menu offering.
但當我們與這些客戶交談時,我們也會談論不同的產品、不同的潛在創新,如果他們提供增值菜單的話。
So there's some different discussions we're having going forward and winning some of that back.
因此,我們正在進行一些不同的討論,並贏得一些回報。
It's just taking longer than what we anticipated.
只是花費的時間比我們預期的要長。
Bernadette Madarieta - Chief Financial Officer
Bernadette Madarieta - Chief Financial Officer
Yes, we're focused on consistency, quality, customer service, and then if there's anything we can bring to the table in terms of LTO, those are the conversations that we're having in addition to price in the competitive environment.
是的,我們專注於一致性、品質、客戶服務,如果我們能在 LTO 方面提供什麼,那就是我們在競爭環境中除了價格之外正在進行的對話。
Stephen Powers - Analyst
Stephen Powers - Analyst
Got it.
知道了。
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Max Gumport, BNP Paribas.
馬克斯‧岡波特,法國巴黎銀行。
Max Gumport - Analyst
Max Gumport - Analyst
Thanks for the question.
謝謝你的提問。
I wanted to turn back to the comment on the 19% to 20% EBITDA margin being an estimate for the go-forward level in the current supply demand environment.
我想回到關於 19% 至 20% EBITDA 利潤率的評論,這是對當前供需環境下的未來水平的估計。
So that does look to be roughly in line with how you're guiding towards the second-half EBITDA margin.
因此,這看起來確實與你們對下半年 EBITDA 利潤率的指導方式大致一致。
But you've also observed to date that your earnings in '25 are temporarily depressed.
但迄今為止,您還發現您在 25 年的收入暫時下降。
Clearly, there's price investments going on.
顯然,價格投資正在進行中。
There's manufacturing inefficiencies.
製造效率低。
There's other pressures that could abate.
還有其他壓力可以減輕。
And then you'll also be getting benefits from all the cost-cutting initiatives that you're just starting to get out there.
然後,您還將從您剛開始實施的所有成本削減措施中獲益。
So I'm trying to get more clarity on what you see as your normalized adjusted EBITDA margin and why it would not be higher than the 19% to 20% that you're expecting for the second half of this fiscal year?
因此,我試圖更清楚地了解您所認為的正常化調整後 EBITDA 利潤率,以及為什麼它不會高於您預計的本財年下半年的 19% 至 20%?
Thanks very much.
非常感謝。
Bernadette Madarieta - Chief Financial Officer
Bernadette Madarieta - Chief Financial Officer
Yes, thanks for the question.
是的,謝謝你的提問。
In the short to medium term, we expect the pressures to continue.
中短期內,我們預期壓力將持續。
Certainly, we are doing everything we can from a cost view to make sure that we can continue to increase the profitability and we'll continue to do that over time.
當然,從成本角度來看,我們正在盡一切努力確保我們能夠繼續提高獲利能力,並且隨著時間的推移,我們將繼續這樣做。
But right now in the short to medium term, with the pressures that we've been seeing, we're going to go ahead and guide to 19% to 20% range for EBITDA margins.
但目前在中短期內,鑑於我們所面臨的壓力,我們將繼續將 EBITDA 利潤率指引至 19% 至 20% 的範圍。
And we'll come back as we're able to sell more in terms of what those improvements and other things look to be as again, our new Chief Supply Chain Officer has been here four months but we've got a lot of positive things we're seeing just this period.
我們會回來的,因為我們能夠在這些改進和其他方面再次銷售更多產品,我們的新首席供應鏈官已經在這裡四個月了,但我們有很多積極的事情我們看到的只是這個時期。
But I want to wait until we've got a more robust plan to come back with on that.
但我想等到我們有一個更強有力的計劃後再回來。
Max Gumport - Analyst
Max Gumport - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
I'll leave it there.
我會把它留在那裡。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Matt Smith, Stifel.
馬特史密斯,史蒂菲爾。
Matthew Smith - Analyst
Matthew Smith - Analyst
Hi, good morning.
嗨,早安。
Tom, you talked about initiatives to improve the impact of the lower utilization for manufacturing.
湯姆,您談到了改善製造業利用率較低的影響的舉措。
Can you just provide a little more color about how you address that both in the near term and over time?
您能否提供更多關於您如何在短期內和隨著時間的推移解決這個問題的資訊?
And along with that, you temporarily suspended production and some lines.
同時,你們也暫時停止了生產和一些生產線。
Has the impact of that suspension -- has it been in line with your expectations?
這次暫停的影響是否符合您的預期?
Or is it contributed to more of some of the production inefficiencies we've seen?
或者它是否導致了我們所看到的一些生產效率低下的情況?
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
No, it's been largely in line with our expectations.
不,這基本上符合我們的預期。
Production challenges we've had were unplanned and the run rates, for a number of different reasons, more up to where we normally expect them to be.
我們遇到的生產挑戰是計劃外的,而且由於多種不同的原因,運行率更多地達到了我們通常預期的水平。
And again, I'll reiterate, they've improved and they're improving.
我再次重申,他們已經進步,而且正在進步。
And we've had some startup issues with the (inaudible) plant and a little bit of American falls that we didn't anticipate, but those are improving.
我們的(聽不清楚)工廠遇到了一些啟動問題,美國也出現了一些我們沒有預料到的問題,但這些正在改善。
We got the teams working on, and we expect that to continue to improve and get to normalized levels here in the near term.
我們讓團隊繼續努力,我們希望在短期內繼續改進並達到正常水平。
Matthew Smith - Analyst
Matthew Smith - Analyst
Thank you, Tom.
謝謝你,湯姆。
And one clarification.
還有一項澄清。
You mentioned your utilization rate or Lamb's utilization rate improving from here.
你提到你的利用率或Lamb的使用率從這裡開始提高。
Is that a reflection of the improving traffic trends?
這是否反映了交通趨勢的改善?
And I'll leave it there and pass it on.
我會把它留在那裡並傳遞下去。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So it's more a reflection of the power processing of potatoes in the plant and the utilization rate and just being more efficient with how we're running the lines.
因此,這更反映了工廠中馬鈴薯的電力加工和利用率,以及我們如何運行生產線來提高效率。
And assuming that we've got a lot of the issues here in the last three, four months addressed going forward.
假設我們在過去三、四個月解決了很多問題。
We're expecting to be running more normalized here for the back half of the year.
我們預計今年下半年這裡的運作將更加正常化。
Operator
Operator
Marc Torrente, Wells Fargo Securities.
馬克‧托倫特,富國銀行證券公司。
Marc Torrente - Analyst
Marc Torrente - Analyst
Hey, good morning, and thank you for taking my questions.
嘿,早上好,謝謝你回答我的問題。
Just a little more on the utilization, just asking a different way.
只是多了解利用率,只是以不同的方式詢問。
So you believe you're currently in line with industry rates in the low 90s and most of the forward incremental capacity you laid out through '28 is from competitors.
因此,您相信您目前的行業成長率與 90 年代低水準一致,而您在 28 年期間部署的大部分未來增量產能都來自競爭對手。
So would you expect to be ahead of industry capacity utilization on the medium term?
那麼,您預期中期產能利用率會領先產業產能利用率嗎?
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thomas Werner - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
No, I think we're generally in line.
不,我想我們通常都在排隊。
I know there's some competitors that from what we understand, are running higher.
我知道,據我們了解,有些競爭對手跑得更高。
But I think overall, we're at kind of industry standard right now.
但我認為總的來說,我們現在處於某種行業標準。
Marc Torrente - Analyst
Marc Torrente - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
And then for finished goods inventory, elevated coming out of Q1, inventories being higher in Q2, any color on how much progress you had working through that during the quarter, where you are currently versus normalized levels?
然後,對於成品庫存,第一季的庫存有所增加,第二季度的庫存更高,您在本季度的工作中取得了多少進展,目前與正常水平相比有多少進展?
And when would you expect production at [line] model is
您預計[生產線]模型的生產時間是
(inaudible)?
(聽不清楚)?
Bernadette Madarieta - Chief Financial Officer
Bernadette Madarieta - Chief Financial Officer
As it relates to second and third quarter, our raw material inventory and our finished goods inventory are usually at their peak because we've just harvested potatoes in September and October.
就第二季和第三季而言,我們的原料庫存和成品庫存通常處於峰值,因為我們剛剛在九月和十月收穫了馬鈴薯。
So you usually see that peak and then we'll continue to work those inventories down as we move forward throughout the balance of the year.
因此,您通常會看到這個峰值,然後我們將在今年剩餘的時間內繼續減少庫存。
Marc Torrente - Analyst
Marc Torrente - Analyst
Okay, thanks.
好的,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Carla Casella, J.P. Morgan.
卡拉‧卡塞拉,摩根大通。
Carla Casella - Analyst
Carla Casella - Analyst
Hi.
你好。
Just one question on leverage.
就一個關於槓桿的問題。
I know your CapEx is coming down next year.
我知道你的資本支出明年會下降。
But looking at the balance and CapEx coming down, increased buyback, increased dividend, any change to your leverage target as you [get] there?
但看看餘額和資本支出的下降、回購的增加、股利的增加,當你到達那裡時,你的槓桿目標有什麼變化嗎?
I know you're having conversations with the agencies.
我知道你正在與有關機構進行對話。
Bernadette Madarieta - Chief Financial Officer
Bernadette Madarieta - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, no change to our leverage target.
是的,我們的槓桿目標並沒有改變。
We continue to target to 3.5 times leverage ratio.
我們繼續將槓桿率目標定為3.5倍。
Carla Casella - Analyst
Carla Casella - Analyst
Okay, great.
好的,太好了。
Thanks.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
With no additional questions in queue, I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Congbalay for any additional or closing remarks.
由於沒有其他問題,我想將電話轉回給 Congbalay 先生,以徵求任何補充或結束語。
Dexter Congbalay - Investor Relations
Dexter Congbalay - Investor Relations
Thanks, everyone, for joining the call today.
感謝大家今天加入電話會議。
If you have any follow-up questions, please e-mail me and we could schedule a time to do so.
如果您有任何後續問題,請給我發送電子郵件,我們可以安排時間這樣做。
Again, thank you and have a happy holiday day, everyone.
再次感謝大家,祝大家節日快樂。
Operator
Operator
Thank you.
謝謝。
That will conclude today's call.
今天的電話會議到此結束。
We appreciate your participation.
我們感謝您的參與。