藍威斯頓 (LW) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Lamb Weston's Second Quarter Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. Dexter Congbalay. Please go ahead, sir.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Lamb Weston 第二季財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。現在，我想把會議交給 Dexter Congbalay 先生。請繼續，先生。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for Lamb Weston's Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. This morning, we issued our earnings press release, which is available on our website, lambweston.com. Please note that during our remarks, we'll make some forward-looking statements about the company's expected performance that are based on how we see things today.

早安，感謝您參加 Lamb Weston 的 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。今天早上，我們發布了收益新聞稿，該新聞稿可在我們的網站 Lambweston.com 上取得。請注意，在我們的發言中，我們將根據我們今天的看法，對公司的預期業績做出一些前瞻性陳述。

Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in our SEC filings for more details on our forward-looking statements.

由於風險和不確定性，實際結果可能存在重大差異。請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件中包含的警示性聲明和風險因素，以了解有關我們前瞻性聲明的更多詳細資訊。

Some of today's remarks include non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered a replacement for and should be read together with our GAAP results. You can find the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations in our earnings release.

今天的一些評論包括非公認會計準則財務指標。這些非公認會計原則財務指標不應被視為替代我們的公認會計原則結果，而應與我們的公認會計原則結果一起閱讀。您可以在我們的收益報告中找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 的調整表。

With me today are Tom Werner, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bernadette Madarieta, our Chief Financial Officer. Tom will provide an overview of the potato crop and the current operating environment. Bernadette will then provide details on our second quarter results as well as our updated fiscal 2024 outlook.

今天與我在一起的有我們的總裁兼執行長 Tom Werner；和我們的財務長 Bernadette Madarieta。湯姆將概述馬鈴薯作物和當前的營運環境。然後 Bernadette 將提供有關我們第二季度業績以及更新的 2024 財年展望的詳細資訊。

With that, let me now turn the call over to Tom.

現在讓我把電話轉給湯姆。

Thank you, Dexter. Happy New Year, and thank you for joining our call today. The entire Lamb Weston team delivered another solid quarter, and I want to thank them for these results and continuing to execute the strategies that we outlined in our Investor Day presentation in October.

謝謝你，德克斯特。新年快樂，感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。整個 Lamb Weston 團隊又交付了一個穩定的季度業績，我要感謝他們所取得的這些成果，並繼續執行我們在 10 月投資者日演講中概述的策略。

We strongly believe that our investments to expand capacity organically and through acquisitions, improved manufacturing and system capabilities, penetrate new channels and markets around the world, strengthen product, customer and channel mix, and develop our people have generated good near-term operating momentum and have us well positioned to capture our share of growth and profitability over the long-term.

我們堅信，我們透過收購有機擴大產能、提高製造和系統能力、滲透全球新通路和市場、加強產品、客戶和通路組合以及培養員工的投資已經產生了良好的近期營運勢頭，讓我們處於有利地位，能夠獲得長期成長和獲利的份額。

In the second quarter, we delivered record sales, reflecting the consolidation of our EMEA business and solid price/mix growth. Sales volumes, excluding acquisitions, declined primarily driven by our decision to exit lower priced and lower margin business. But as we expect the year-over-year trend improved sequentially, adjusted EBITDA growth was also solid behind incremental earnings from consolidating EMEA as well as higher sales and gross profit in the base business. However, the increase was tempered by a $71 million charge to write-off excess for raw potatoes, $65 million of which was recorded in cost of sales and $6 million in Equity Method Investment Earnings.

第二季度，我們實現了創紀錄的銷售額，反映出我們歐洲、中東和非洲業務的整合以及價格/組合的穩健成長。銷售量（不包括收購）下降主要是因為我們決定退出價格較低、利潤率較低的業務。但正如我們預期的同比趨勢將連續改善，調整後的 EBITDA 成長也很強勁，這背後是歐洲、中東和非洲地區整合帶來的增量收益以及基礎業務更高的銷售額和毛利。然而，這一增長受到 7,100 萬美元沖銷生馬鈴薯超額費用的影響，其中 6,500 萬美元記錄在銷售成本中，600 萬美元記錄在權益法投資收益中。

The reason and magnitude of this charge is very unusual. So let me give you a little more color on it. In January 2023, we developed an initial sales forecast for the following fiscal year that reflected a gradually strengthening consumer and recovery in global demand. That forecast was developed based on the information available at that time. We used this initial sales forecast to determine the number of contracted acres to grow the raw potatoes needed to deliver that sales forecast.

這項指控的原因和規模非常不尋常。所以讓我給你更多的色彩。 2023 年 1 月，我們對下一財年制定了初步銷售預測，反映了消費者的逐漸增強和全球需求的復甦。該預測是根據當時可用的信息制定的。我們利用這個初始銷售預測來確定實現該銷售預測所需的種植生馬鈴薯的合約英畝數。

Per our agreements with our growers, we're obligated to purchase all the potatoes grown on these contracted acres. However, our initial sales forecast has turned out to be more aggressive than our current estimate, reflecting recent restaurant traffic and demand trends as consumers continue to absorb the cumulative effect of inflation. As a result, we have purchased more potatoes than we need to meet our current sales targets and have taken a charge to write off the estimated excess. Although overall demand growth is slower than we anticipated a year ago, it remains resilient. Fry attachment rates in the U.S. are stable and in line with what we projected in January 2023.

根據我們與種植者的協議，我們有義務購買這些承包土地上種植的所有馬鈴薯。然而，我們最初的銷售預測比我們目前的預測更加激進，反映了隨著消費者繼續吸收通貨膨脹的累積影響，近期的餐廳客流量和需求趨勢。因此，我們購買的馬鈴薯數量超出了實現當前銷售目標所需的數量，並已收取費用來沖銷預計的超額部分。儘管整體需求成長慢於我們一年前的預期，但仍保持彈性。美國的魚苗附著率穩定，與我們 2023 年 1 月的預測一致。

Outside the U.S., restaurant traffic in most of our key international markets continues to grow, including double-digit growth in China. We remain confident that our volume trends will continue to improve in the back half of fiscal 2024 as we begin to lap and backfill exited volumes with higher-margin business. This includes our target for year-over-year volume growth in the fourth quarter.

在美國以外，我們大多數主要國際市場的餐廳客流量持續成長，其中中國的餐廳客流量呈現兩位數成長。我們仍然相信，隨著我們開始用利潤率更高的業務來彌補和回填退出的銷量，我們的銷售趨勢將在 2024 財年後半段繼續改善。這包括我們第四季銷售年增的目標。

In addition, we expect our volumes will continue to recover in fiscal 2025 and have planned to contract for acres accordingly. While we are disappointed with the write-offs, the underlying fundamentals of the business, our operations in the category remain solid. Our volume trends are improving in line with our expectations. Global demand is resilient as consumers continue to face stiff food away from home inflation.

此外，我們預計我們的產量將在 2025 財政年度繼續恢復，並計劃相應收縮面積。儘管我們對沖銷感到失望，但業務的基本面和我們在該類別的業務仍然穩健。我們的銷售趨勢正在改善，符合我們的預期。由於消費者持續面臨國內通膨帶來的硬食品，全球需求具有彈性。

Our new greenfield processing facility in China is now operational. Price/mix trends in the U.S. and most of our key international markets remain solid, while input cost inflation is decelerating. We delivered strong adjusted EBITDA growth and gross margin expansion, excluding the potato write-off. And as Bernadette will explain in greater detail, we're reaffirming our fiscal 2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance range despite absorbing the write-off while raising our EPS estimates.

我們在中國新建的新加工廠現已投入營運。美國和大多數主要國際市場的價格/組合趨勢保持穩定，而投入成本通膨正在放緩。我們實現了強勁的調整後 EBITDA 成長和毛利率擴張（不包括馬鈴薯沖銷）。正如伯納黛特將更詳細地解釋的那樣，儘管在提高每股收益預期的同時吸收了沖銷，但我們仍重申 2024 財年調整後的 EBITDA 指導範圍。

Overall, we continue to be pleased with our operating momentum and confident in our ability to deliver our full year financial targets. Let me now turn the call over to Bernadette for a more detailed discussion on our second quarter results and updated outlook.

總體而言，我們仍然對我們的經營勢頭感到滿意，並對我們實現全年財務目標的能力充滿信心。現在讓我將電話轉給伯納黛特，以更詳細地討論我們第二季的業績和最新的前景。

Thanks, Tom, and Happy New Year, everyone. I also want to start off by thanking the entire Lamb Weston team for the continued execution of our strategies and for delivering another quarter of strong financial results. For our second quarter, sales increased about $455 million or 36% to more than $1.7 billion, about $375 million or more than 80% of the increase was attributable to the incremental sales from the acquisition of the EMEA business.

謝謝湯姆，祝大家新年快樂。首先，我還要感謝整個 Lamb Weston 團隊持續執行我們的策略，並再次實現了強勁的財務表現。第二季度，銷售額成長約 4.55 億美元，或 36%，達到 17 億美元以上，其中約 3.75 億美元，即 80% 以上的成長歸因於收購 EMEA 業務帶來的銷售額增量。

We'll continue to receive the incremental benefit from the consolidation of the EMEA business in the third quarter. And as a reminder, since we began to consolidate EMEA sales beginning in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023, those results are included in our last year's sales baseline. Excluding the incremental sales from the EMEA acquisition, net sales grew 6%. Price/mix was up 12% as we continue to benefit from the inflation-driven pricing actions taken in fiscal 2023 along with the pricing actions taken this year in both our North America and international segments.

第三季我們將繼續從歐洲、中東和非洲業務的整合中獲得增量收益。提醒一下，由於我們從 2023 財年第四季開始合併 EMEA 銷售，這些結果已包含在我們去年的銷售基準中。不計入 EMEA 收購帶來的增量銷售額，淨銷售額成長了 6%。由於我們繼續受益於 2023 財年採取的通貨膨脹驅動的定價行動以及今年在北美和國際部門採取的定價行動，價格/組合上漲了 12%。

Mix was also favorable as we continued to strategically manage our product and customer portfolio. Lower freight charges to customers were about a 1 point headwind. Total sales volumes declined 6%, which was in line with our expectations. The decline was primarily due to the carryover impact of exiting the lower-margin business during the second half of fiscal 2023.

由於我們繼續策略性地管理我們的產品和客戶組合，混合也很有利。向客戶收取的運費降低約 1 個百分點。總銷量下降 6%，符合我們的預期。這一下降主要是由於 2023 財年下半年退出利潤率較低的業務帶來的結轉影響。

Volume elasticities or the amount of volume lost in response to inflation-based pricing actions remain low. While sales volumes declined compared to the prior year period, it's a sequential improvement from the 8% decline that we delivered in our fiscal first quarter. The improving trend largely reflects no further impact of the inventory destocking in Asia and North America that we experienced in the first quarter and the gradual backfilling of the business that we chose to exit.

成交量彈性或因通膨定價行為而損失的成交量仍然很低。雖然銷量與去年同期相比有所下降，但與我們第一財季 8% 的下降相比，情況有所改善。改善趨勢很大程度上反映了我們第一季經歷的亞洲和北美庫存去庫存以及我們選擇退出的業務的逐步回填沒有進一步的影響。

Moving on from sales. Gross profit, excluding unrealized mark-to-market gains and losses related to derivatives and items impacting comparability, increased $97 million to nearly $480 million. Our gross profit growth was tempered by a $65 million charge for the write-off of excess raw potatoes. Excluding this charge as well as the mark-to-market and comparability items, gross profit increased to $162 million to more than $540 million. About half of this increase was driven by the cumulative benefit of pricing actions, mix improvement and supply chain productivity in our legacy Lamb Weston business, which more than offset higher input and manufacturing cost per pound and the impact of lower volumes.

從銷售開始。扣除與影響可比性的衍生性商品和項目相關的未實現按市價計價損益後，毛利增加了 9,700 萬美元，達到近 4.8 億美元。我們的毛利成長因沖銷多餘生馬鈴薯而產生的 6,500 萬美元費用而受到抑制。排除此項費用以及按市值計價和可比性項目，毛利增至 1.62 億美元，超過 5.4 億美元。這一增長的一半左右是由我們傳統 Lamb Weston 業務中的定價行動、產品組合改進和供應鏈生產力的累積效益所推動的，這足以抵消每磅投入和製造成本的增加以及銷量下降的影響。

The other half of the increase was from incremental earnings from consolidating EMEA. Input costs increased mid-single digits on a per pound basis, which is a bit lower than the mid- to high single digits that we saw in the first quarter. The increases were largely driven by a 20% increase in the contracted price for potatoes in North America, and continued increases in the cost of ingredients for batter coatings, labor and other key inputs.

成長的另一半來自歐洲、中東和非洲地區合併帶來的增量收益。每磅投入成本增加了中個位數，略低於我們在第一季看到的中高個位數。上漲的主要原因是北美馬鈴薯合約價格上漲20%，以及麵糊塗層原料、勞動力和其他關鍵投入的成本持續上漲。

The inflation was partially offset by supply chain productivity savings, lower cost for edible oils and lower freight costs. SG&A, excluding comparability items, increased $42 million to $177 million. More than 2/3 of the increase was from incremental SG&A with the consolidation of EMEA, with the remainder largely driven by higher expenses related to improving our IT and ERP infrastructure as well as compensation and benefit expenses.

供應鏈生產力的節省、食用油成本的降低和貨運成本的降低部分抵消了通貨膨脹。 SG&A（不包括可比較項目）增加了 4,200 萬美元，達到 1.77 億美元。超過 2/3 的成長來自於 EMEA 整合帶來的增量 SG&A，其餘部分主要是由於與改善 IT 和 ERP 基礎設施以及薪資和福利費用相關的費用增加。

All of this led to adjusted EBITDA increasing 15% to $377 million. Excluding the write-off for excess raw potatoes, adjusted EBITDA increased 36% to $448 million. Higher sales and gross profit in the base business drove most of the growth with the remainder attributable to the incremental earnings from consolidating EMEA.

所有這些導致調整後 EBITDA 成長 15%，達到 3.77 億美元。不包括多餘生馬鈴薯的沖銷，調整後的 EBITDA 成長 36%，達到 4.48 億美元。基礎業務銷售額和毛利的成長推動了大部分成長，其餘部分則歸因於歐洲、中東和非洲地區整合帶來的增量收益。

Moving to our segments. Sales in our North America segment, which includes sales to customers in all channels in the U.S., Canada and Mexico increased 10% in the quarter. Price/mix was up 14%, which was driven by the carryover benefit of pricing actions that took effect in fiscal 2023 across each of our primary sales channels as well as some pricing actions taken this year, and favorable mix as we continue to benefit from our revenue growth management and other mix improvement initiatives.

轉向我們的細分市場。本季北美部門的銷售額（包括美國、加拿大和墨西哥所有通路的客戶銷售額）成長了 10%。價格/組合成長了 14%，這是由於 2023 財年在我們每個主要銷售管道上生效的定價行動的結轉效益以及今年採取的一些定價行動以及我們繼續受益的有利組合推動的我們的收入成長管理和其他組合改進措施。

Lower freight revenue partially offset the increase by about 1.5 points.

貨運收入下降部分抵銷了約 1.5 個百分點的成長。

Volume in North America declined 4%, reflecting the carryover impact of exiting lower-margin business during the second half of fiscal 2023. This is a sequential improvement from the 5% decline in our fiscal first quarter.

北美銷售下降 4%，反映了 2023 財年下半年退出低利潤業務的結轉影響。與第一財季 5% 的下降相比，這已是連續改善。

North America segment adjusted EBITDA increased 7% to $321 million. The carryover benefit of pricing actions and favorable mix more than offset a $63 million charge for the write-off of excess raw potatoes, higher cost per pound and the impact of lower volumes.

北美業務調整後 EBITDA 成長 7%，達到 3.21 億美元。定價行動和有利組合的結轉效益遠遠抵消了沖銷多餘生馬鈴薯而產生的 6,300 萬美元費用、每磅成本上升以及銷售下降的影響。

Sales in our International segment, which includes sales to customers in all channels outside of North America grew about $350 million, of which $376 million were incremental sales from the EMEA acquisition. Excluding the EMEA acquisition, net sales declined 12%. Price/mix was up 10% driven primarily by the carryover benefit of pricing actions taken last year, discrete pricing actions taken this year and favorable mix.

我們的國際部門銷售額（包括北美以外所有通路的客戶銷售額）成長了約 3.5 億美元，其中 3.76 億美元是來自 EMEA 收購的增量銷售額。不包括 EMEA 收購，淨銷售額下降 12%。價格/組合成長了 10%，主要是由於去年採取的定價行動、今年採取的離散定價行動以及有利的組合的結轉效益。

Sales volumes fell 22% primarily reflecting the carryover impact of exiting the lower-margin business during the second half of fiscal 2023. International segment adjusted EBITDA increased 66% to $100 million with incremental earnings from the consolidation of EMEA's financial results driving the increase.

銷售量下降22%，主要反映了2023 財年下半年退出利潤率較低業務的結轉影響。國際部門調整後EBITDA 成長66%，達到1 億美元，歐洲、中東和非洲(EMEA) 財務業績整合帶來的增量收益推動了這項成長。

Excluding the EMEA acquisition, higher cost per pound, along with the impact of lower volumes more than offset the favorable price/mix. The higher cost per pound included an $8 million charge allocated to the International segment for the write-off of excess raw potatoes, which was based on the percentage of finished goods shipments to international markets.

不包括歐洲、中東和非洲地區的收購，每磅成本較高，加上銷售量較低的影響，足以抵銷有利的價格/組合。每磅較高的成本包括分配給國際部門的 800 萬美元費用，用於沖銷多餘的生馬鈴薯，該費用是根據運往國際市場的製成品的百分比計算的。

Moving to our liquidity position and cash flow. Our balance sheet is strong. We ended the quarter with our net debt leverage at 2.4x, adjusted EBITDA up from 2.3x at the end of our fiscal first quarter. Our net debt ticked up a couple of hundred million dollars to more than $3.5 billion as we drew on our U.S. revolver to largely finance seasonal working capital needs and increased capital expenditures.

轉向我們的流動性狀況和現金流。我們的資產負債表強勁。本季末，我們的淨負債槓桿率為 2.4 倍，調整後 EBITDA 高於第一季末的 2.3 倍。由於我們動用美國左輪手槍來滿足季節性營運資金需求和增加資本支出，我們的淨債務增加了數億美元，達到 35 億美元以上。

We also accelerated some payments to suppliers in advance of our ERP system go live at the beginning of the third quarter. In the first half of the year, we generated $455 million of cash from operations or nearly $170 million more than the first half of last year, largely due to higher earnings.

在 ERP 系統於第三季初上線之前，我們也加快了向供應商付款的速度。今年上半年，我們從營運中產生了 4.55 億美元的現金，比去年上半年增加了近 1.7 億美元，這主要是由於獲利增加。

Capital expenditures in the first half were about $565 million, which is up about $300 million from the prior year period, primarily due to construction and equipment purchases as we continue to expand processing capacity in Idaho, Argentina and the Netherlands. As Tom mentioned, we started up our new facility in China a couple of months ago.

上半年資本支出約為5.65億美元，比去年同期增加約3億美元，主要是由於我們繼續擴大愛達荷州、阿根廷和荷蘭的加工能力而進行的建築和設備採購。正如湯姆所提到的，我們幾個月前在中國啟動了新工廠。

As we discussed during our Investor Day in October, our first priority is investing in our business, which we are doing organically with our capacity expansions. We also remain committed to returning capital to our shareholders. During the first half of the year, we returned more than $230 of cash to our shareholders, comprised of $82 million in dividends and $150 million in share repurchases.

正如我們在 10 月的投資者日討論的那樣，我們的首要任務是投資我們的業務，我們正在透過產能擴張來有機地進行投資。我們也持續致力於向股東返還資本。今年上半年，我們向股東返還了超過 230 美元的現金，其中包括 8,200 萬美元的股息和 1.5 億美元的股票回購。

This includes $50 million of stock repurchased in the second quarter at an average price of $87.41 as we acted opportunistically based on our stock price. In addition, in October, we raised our share repurchase authorization to $500 million. And in December, we announced a 29% increase in our quarterly dividend to $0.36 per share.

其中包括第二季以 87.41 美元的平均價格回購了 5,000 萬美元的股票，因為我們根據股價採取了機會主義行動。此外，10 月份，我們將股票回購授權提高至 5 億美元。 12 月，我們宣布將季度股息增加 29% 至每股 0.36 美元。

Turning now to our fiscal 2024 outlook. We reaffirmed our full year sales and EBITDA targets and raised our EPS estimate despite the charge to write-off excess raw potatoes. Specifically, we reaffirmed our annual net sales target of $6.8 billion to $7 billion. This includes $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion of incremental sales attributable to the EMEA acquisition during the first 3 quarters of the year and 6.5% to 8.5% net sales growth, excluding our acquisitions.

現在轉向我們的 2024 財年展望。儘管沖銷了多餘的生土豆，但我們重申了全年銷售額和 EBITDA 目標，並提高了每股收益預期。具體來說，我們重申了 68 億至 70 億美元的年度淨銷售額目標。這包括今年前 3 季因 EMEA 收購帶來的 11 億至 12 億美元的增量銷售額以及 6.5% 至 8.5% 的淨銷售額成長（不包括我們的收購）。

For the year, we continue to target price mix to be up low double digits, with price/mix in the second half slowing sequentially from the 17% increase that we delivered in the first half as we lap more of last year's price actions. We continue to target our full year volume, excluding acquisitions, to be down mid-single digits compared with the prior year as we maintain our cautious view of the consumer.

今年，我們繼續將價格組合的目標定為低兩位數增長，下半年的價格/組合比我們上半年實現的 17% 增幅連續放緩，因為我們更多地遵循了去年的價格走勢。由於我們對消費者保持謹慎的態度，我們繼續將全年銷售（不包括收購）目標定為比上年下降中個位數。

That said, we expect year-over-year volume trends in each of our segments will continue to improve in the second half of the year as we lap some of the significant low-margin, low-profit volume that we chose to exit in the second half of last year, and as we gradually backfill the exited lower-margin business with more profitable business.

也就是說，我們預計下半年我們每個細分市場的年比銷售趨勢將持續改善，因為我們選擇在今年下半年退出一些重要的低利潤、低利潤銷售。去年下半年，我們逐漸用利潤更高的業務來填補退出的低利潤業務。

We expect volume growth to be positive in the fourth quarter. For earnings, we're reaffirming our adjusted EBITDA range to $1.54 to $1.62 billion. We're maintaining our EBITDA range target despite absorbing a $71 million charge for the write-off of excess raw potatoes.

我們預計第四季銷售將出現正成長。就獲利而言，我們重申調整後 EBITDA 範圍為 1.54 至 16.2 億美元。儘管吸收了 7,100 萬美元的多餘馬鈴薯沖銷費用，但我們仍維持 EBITDA 範圍目標。

We're raising our adjusted diluted EPS estimate to $5.70 to $6.15 from our previous range of $5.50 to $5.95. The increase, which also includes the impact of the raw potato write-off is largely due to 2 items: First, we're reducing our SG&A target by $20 million to a range of $745 million to $755 million as we continue to manage our operating costs. And second, we're reducing our interest expense target by $15 million to $140 million as we expect to capitalize more interest associated with our capacity expansions.

我們將調整後攤薄每股收益預期從先前的 5.50 美元至 5.95 美元上調至 5.70 美元至 6.15 美元。這一增長（其中還包括生馬鈴薯沖銷的影響）主要歸因於以下兩點：首先，隨著我們繼續管理我們的運營，我們將SG&A 目標減少2000 萬美元，至7.45 億至7.55 億美元之間。成本。其次，我們將利息支出目標減少 1,500 萬美元至 1.4 億美元，因為我們預計將更多與產能擴張相關的利息資本化。

We're also updating a couple of other financial targets. We reduced our depreciation and amortization expense by $20 million to $305 million. We also increased our capital expenditures target to $900 million to $950 million, up from our previous estimate of $800 million to $900 million to account for the timing of spending for our capacity expansion project.

我們也更新了其他一些財務目標。我們將折舊和攤提費用減少了 2,000 萬美元，達到 3.05 億美元。我們也將資本支出目標從先前估計的 8 億美元至 9 億美元提高到 9 億美元至 9.5 億美元，以考慮產能擴張項目的支出時間。

Before I turn the call back over to Tom, let me give you a quick update on our ERP implementation. At the beginning of our fiscal third quarter, we transitioned some of our central systems in North America that manage supplier payments, inventories, warehousing, customer invoicing and customer shipments to SAP. We're experiencing the usual bumps associated with these highly challenging large-scale projects, but don't expect that the cutover will have a material impact on our full year business or operating results.

在我將電話轉回給 Tom 之前，讓我先向您簡要介紹我們 ERP 實施的最新情況。在第三財季初，我們將北美管理供應商付款、庫存、倉儲、客戶發票和客戶發貨的一些中央系統轉移到了 SAP。我們正在經歷與這些極具挑戰性的大型專案相關的常見障礙，但預計切換不會對我們的全年業務或經營業績產生重大影響。

The estimated financial impact of the systems go live is included in our fiscal 2024 targets, including the impact of pausing production and increasing planned downtime at our processing facilities, followed by a gradual ramp-up of production and reduced shipments due to short-term inventory visibility challenges at our third-party finished goods warehouses in the period immediately following the cutover.

系統上線的預期財務影響已包含在我們 2024 財年的目標中，包括暫停生產和增加加工設施的計劃停機時間的影響，以及隨後由於短期庫存而逐步提高產量和減少出貨量的影響在切換後的一段時間內，我們的第三方成品倉庫面臨可見性挑戰。

As a result of the increased production downtime, our third quarter gross margin, which is typically our strongest, will be pressured by higher manufacturing costs, reflecting reduced fixed cost coverage and other cost inefficiencies. With respect to sales, we expect the inventory visibility challenges that we experienced at the third-party warehouses to affect shipments and temper the sequential improvement in our third quarter volume trends. But as I mentioned earlier, we continue to expect positive year-over-year volume growth in our fiscal fourth quarter.

由於生產停工時間增加，我們通常表現最強勁的第三季毛利率將受到製造成本上升的壓力，反映出固定成本覆蓋範圍減少和其他成本效率低下。在銷售方面，我們預計我們在第三方倉庫遇到的庫存可見性挑戰將影響出貨量並抑制我們第三季銷售趨勢的持續改善。但正如我之前提到的，我們仍然預計第四財季的銷售量將出現年比正面成長。

I want to thank our customers and our warehousing and logistics service partners for working with us to manage through the transition. And most importantly, I want to thank our Lamb Weston team members that have been working tirelessly on this project, including throughout the holiday season. We will provide a further update on the transition of the central systems and processes as well as the general timeline for implementing the new ERP system throughout our manufacturing network during our third quarter earnings call in April.

我要感謝我們的客戶以及我們的倉儲和物流服務合作夥伴與我們一起管理整個過渡。最重要的是，我要感謝我們的 Lamb Weston 團隊成員，他們一直在這個專案上孜孜不倦地工作，包括整個假期。我們將在 4 月的第三季財報電話會議上提供有關中央系統和流程過渡的進一步更新信息，以及在整個製造網絡中實施新 ERP 系統的總體時間表。

In summary, we delivered another strong quarter of top and bottom line growth as we continue to execute our strategies, manage our portfolio mix and manage costs. We continue to expect volume trends to improve in the second half of the year while remaining cautious about the effect of inflation on the consumer.

總之，隨著我們繼續執行我們的策略、管理我們的投資組合和管理成本，我們實現了另一個強勁的季度收入和利潤成長。我們繼續預期下半年銷售趨勢將有所改善，同時對通膨對消費者的影響保持謹慎。

And finally, we updated our earnings estimate for the year including reaffirming our annual EBITDA range despite absorbing a write-off for excess raw potatoes and raising our annual EPS estimates to reflect lower SG&A and interest expense.

最後，我們更新了今年的獲利預測，包括重申我們的年度 EBITDA 範圍，儘管沖銷了多餘的生土豆，並提高了我們的年度每股收益預測以反映較低的銷售管理費用和利息費用。

Let me now turn it back over to Tom for some closing comments.

現在讓我把它轉回給湯姆，徵求一些結束語。

Thank you, Bernadette. Let me sum it up by saying we feel good about the overall health of the global category and the drivers for demand growth. We also feel good about our operating momentum and are confident in our ability to deliver our updated financial targets for the year. And finally, we believe that our focus on executing our strategies will continue to have us well positioned to drive sustainable profitable growth and create value for our shareholders over the long-term.

謝謝你，伯納黛特。讓我總結一下，我們對全球類別的整體健康狀況和需求成長的驅動力感到滿意。我們也對我們的經營勢頭感到滿意，並對我們實現今年更新的財務目標的能力充滿信心。最後，我們相信，我們對執行策略的關注將繼續使我們處於有利位置，推動可持續的獲利成長，並為股東長期創造價值。

Thank you for joining us today, and now we're ready to take your questions.

感謝您今天加入我們，現在我們準備好回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Matt Smith with Stifel.

（操作員說明）我們將接受 Stifel 的 Matt Smith 提出的第一個問題。

Want to ask a question about your reiteration of guidance despite the $71 million potato charge. If you could talk about what led to the potato charge? It sounds like your initial contracted acres were based on your outlook from January of the past year. So have you changed your shipment volume expectations relative to the guidance that you initially provided us in July?

儘管馬鈴薯收費高達 7,100 萬美元，但仍想問一下有關您重申指導意見的問題。您能談談是什麼導致了馬鈴薯指控嗎？聽起來您最初的合約面積是基於您去年一月的展望。那麼，相對於您最初在 7 月向我們提供的指導，您是否改變了您的出貨量預期？

And then with the excess potato charge, does that represent the full amount of excess potatoes? Or were you able to utilize some of the higher-than-expected yields either through processing finished goods or holding more raw potatoes into next year? And how does that impact how you go about contracting acres for next year based on your current expectation for volumes into next year?

那麼，加上多餘的馬鈴薯費用，這是否代表了多餘馬鈴薯的全部數量？或者您能夠透過加工成品或保留更多生馬鈴薯來利用一些高於預期的產量？根據您目前對明年產量的預期，這對您明年承包土地的方式有何影響？

Yes, Matt, thank you for the question. I think as it relates to the first one, and it relates to guidance, the amount of shipments and volumes that we had in our guidance in July has not changed from what we have now. Again, that was -- we had to determine the number of acres to plants back in January of 2023. But the last time we gave guidance, there's been no changes.

是的，馬特，謝謝你的提問。我認為，由於它與第一個相關，並且與指導相關，因此我們 7 月份指導中的發貨量和數量與現在相比沒有變化。同樣，我們必須早在 2023 年 1 月就確定植物種植面積。但上次我們提供指導時，沒有任何變化。

And then the second question, as we think through the crop this year, there are mitigants that we would have taken into consideration in terms of carrying some higher finished goods inventory for products that we know that we're going to sell. And then as we always do, we will take that into consideration as we determine the number of acres that we're going to plan for the upcoming year.

然後是第二個問題，當我們思考今年的收成時，我們會考慮一些緩解措施，為我們知道要銷售的產品保留一些更高的成品庫存。然後，像往常一樣，我們在確定來年計劃的英畝數時會考慮到這一點。

And maybe as a follow-up, could you talk about how your contract negotiations are progressing with farmers into next year, given it sounds like maybe you're going to contract for fewer acres, how does that change the pricing conversation.

也許作為後續行動，您能否談談明年與農民的合同談判進展如何，因為聽起來您可能會簽訂更少的土地合同，這對定價對話有何影響。

Matt, this is Tom. I'll -- as we do every year, we're right in the middle of negotiations, so we're not going to get into where we're at in that process. As we always do in July, October, we'll give you an overview of kind of where we ended up and talk about that in more detail. But right now, we're right in the middle of it, so we're going to respect that process.

馬特，這是湯姆。我會——就像我們每年所做的那樣，我們正處於談判之中，所以我們不會進入這個過程中的階段。正如我們在七月、十月所做的那樣，我們將向您概述我們的最終結果，並更詳細地討論這一點。但現在，我們正處於其中，所以我們將尊重這個過程。

We'll now take our next question from Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs.

現在我們將回答高盛的亞當·薩繆爾森提出的下一個問題。

Yes. So maybe just -- so on the charge, and I want to just be clear, as we think about otherwise, your gross profit margin in this quarter would have been 350-or-so basis points higher and your full year gross margins would have been -- the impact of the full year is about 100 basis -- 90 to 100 basis points. And so as we think about the absence of this charge or assuming it wouldn't repeat in 2025. All else equal, your gross profit margins are tracking kind of pretty comfortably ahead of how you frame your business outlook at the Investor Day in October? Or am I mischaracterize it now?

是的。因此，也許只是 - 因此，我想澄清一下，正如我們不考慮的那樣，您本季度的毛利率將高出 350 個基點左右，而您的全年毛利率將全年的影響約為100-90至100個基點。因此，當我們考慮不存在這項費用或假設 2025 年不會再發生這種情況時。在其他條件相同的情況下，您的毛利率在 10 月份投資者日如何制定業務前景之前相當輕鬆？或者我現在錯誤地描述了它？

Yes. No, thanks, Adam. You're correct. Our Q2 gross margin implies a 31.3% margin, excluding the write-off of the potatoes. And as we've been talking about, that increase is related to the pricing actions and then catching up to the multiyear impact of inflation and also allowing the benefit of the productivity and mix that fall through. So those are some of the things that you're seeing. As it relates to the third quarter, keep in mind that it's going to be down sequentially from that, and that's going to reflect that reduced fixed cost coverage that we're going to have as we started our ERP, and we needed to take some downtime and ramp our plants up slowly.

是的。不，謝謝，亞當。你是對的。我們第二季的毛利率為 31.3%，不包括馬鈴薯的沖銷。正如我們一直在談論的那樣，這種增長與定價行為有關，然後趕上通貨膨脹的多年影響，並允許生產力和組合的收益下降。這些是你所看到的一些事情。由於它與第三季度相關，請記住，它將從第三季度開始依次下降，這將反映出我們在啟動 ERP 時將減少的固定成本覆蓋範圍，我們需要採取一些措施停機時間並緩慢提高我們的工廠產量。

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe, Tom or Bernadette, can you provide a little bit more detail on the progress on integrating EMEA and just how do we think about where you are with that group on some of the revenue growth management tools that you've been implementing successfully in North America and how kind of that business has been performing on an organic basis -- will it'll start to be in the year-on-year comparisons organically in fourth quarter, but just are you tracking ahead of where you thought or what inning do you think those RGM tools are in terms of being deployed?

好的。這很有幫助。然後，Tom 或 Bernadette，您能否提供更多關於整合 EMEA 的進展的詳細信息，以及我們如何看待您在該團隊中在您已成功實施的一些收入增長管理工具方面的進展情況在北美，該業務的有機表現如何——它是否會在第四季度開始有機地進行同比比較，但你是否在跟踪你的想法或什麼您認為這些 RGM 工具是否正在部署？

Yes, Adam, this is Tom. And I'll tell you, I'm really pleased on where we're at in terms of the integration of EMEA at this point. We're towards the tail end of that, and the team has done a terrific job across the organization functionally, commercially, really connecting up. And we've reorganized the organization to reflect the global company that we are now. So I'm pleased with where we're at.

是的，亞當，這是湯姆。我會告訴你，我對我們目前在 EMEA 一體化方面所取得的進展感到非常高興。我們已經接近尾聲，團隊在整個組織中在功能上、商業上、真正的聯繫方面都做得非常出色。我們重組了組織，以反映我們現在的全球性公司。所以我對我們現在的處境很滿意。

In terms of initiatives, your specific question on RGM. That's definitely on the radar, but that's going to be down the road based on a number of other initiatives we have going on in the company that we really need to keep our focus on executing specifically the ERP implementation right now. So we're at the tail end of it, feel great. The team is doing a magnificent job getting integrated, and I'm pleased with where we're at today.

就舉措而言，您關於 RGM 的具體問題。這肯定是在關注的範圍內，但基於我們公司正在進行的許多其他舉措，我們確實需要將注意力集中在立即執行 ERP 實施上，這將是未來的事情。所以我們已經處於尾聲了，感覺很棒。團隊在整合方面做得非常出色，我對我們今天的處境感到滿意。

We'll now take our next question from Robert Moskow with TD Cowen.

現在我們將回答 Robert Moskow 和 TD Cowen 提出的下一個問題。

And a lot of other food industries when raw material supplies far exceed what the demand expectations were, you'd expect some impact on pricing, some negative impact on pricing. But your industry is not like a lot of those others. So Tom, maybe you could talk a little bit about your pricing power and the industry's pricing and why the excess potatoes are not a concern.

對於許多其他食品行業來說，當原材料供應遠遠超過需求預期時，您預計會對定價產生一些影響，對定價產生一些負面影響。但您的行業與其他許多行業不同。湯姆，也許你可以談談你的定價能力和行業的定價，以及為什麼多餘的馬鈴薯不是問題。

Yes, Robert, the thing to remember is the commodity in our business, potato, it's a 1-year crop. And so you have to process it. And certainly, like Bernadette alluded to, we looked at all of the mitigating factors like we do every year. And it's just an unusual circumstances to the order of magnitude, typically, we manage through different positions based on our forecast. And this year is different, and the crop overall is really, really good, and it's just a matter of -- you got to make some decisions based on the demand forecast, utilizing your plants, running the crop longer.

是的，羅伯特，要記住的是我們生意中的商品，馬鈴薯，它是一年生作物。所以你必須處理它。當然，就像伯納黛特提到的那樣，我們像每年一樣研究了所有的緩解因素。這只是一種不尋常的情況，通常情況下，我們會根據我們的預測來管理不同的部位。今年不同了，整體收成非常非常好，這只是一個問題——你必須根據需求預測做出一些決定，利用你的植物，延長作物的運行時間。

And economically, this is the best decision to move forward based on as we're going through the end of this crop and moving into the next crop in come June, July. So it's a different commodity. It has a shelf life that's rather short than a lot of the other commodity businesses I've been around. And so it's not -- we manage through every year. And unfortunately, how the operating environment and the environment with this particular crop shaped up, the quality of the crop yields just put a lot of pressure on availability, which there's plenty of potatoes around.

從經濟上來說，這是向前推進的最佳決定，因為我們即將經歷這一季的結束，並在六月、七月進入下一季。所以這是一種不同的商品。它的保質期比我接觸過的許多其他商品業務要短。所以事實並非如此──我們每年都能渡過難關。不幸的是，經營環境和這種特殊作物的環境如何形成，作物產量的品質給供應帶來了極大的壓力，而周圍有大量的馬鈴薯。

Got it. Got it. I guess a follow-up. I think you said on the last call that about 20% of your North American business was still in contract discussions. Did -- is all of that done now? And did you get the pricing that you expected to get in those discussions?

知道了。知道了。我猜還有後續。我想您在上次電話會議上說過，您大約 20% 的北美業務仍在合約談判中。現在所有這些都完成了嗎？您在這些討論中得到了預期的定價嗎？

Yes. So the contract renewal process is complete now, and we feel really good about where in the aggregate, we ended on both pricing and terms. A lot of that relates to the large chain restaurants that we typically will finalize in the back half of the year, and that's what makes up that 20% that you're referencing.

是的。因此，合約續約過程現已完成，我們對總體而言在定價和條款方面的結束感到非常滿意。其中許多都與大型連鎖餐廳有關，我們通常會在今年下半年敲定，這就是您提到的 20% 的內容。

We'll now take our next question from Rob Dickerson with Jefferies.

現在我們將回答 Rob Dickerson 和 Jefferies 提出的下一個問題。

Just a quick clarification question. I want to come back to the kind of sequential, I guess, implied gross margin trajectory for Q3. I guess it's more for Bernadette. I think you said there are some plants that maybe are being shut down kind of temporarily by implementing some of the ERP initiatives. But then at the same time, right, Q3 is usually the highest gross margin quarter and at the same time, we're comparing it to Q2 were inclusive of the write-down, but then extra write-down or like closer to 31%. So it's a very basic question a long buildup, but if you were seeing that the gross margin would be down sequentially a little bit from the normalized gross margin in Q2 once we ex out the inventory. Is that how you were speaking to that?

只是一個快速澄清的問題。我想回到第三季的連續隱含毛利率軌跡。我想這比較適合伯納黛特。我想您說過，有些工廠可能會透過實施一些 ERP 計劃而暫時關閉。但同時，第三季度通常是毛利率最高的季度，同時，我們將其與第二季度進行比較，其中包括減記，但額外減記或接近 31% 。因此，這是一個非常基本的問題，需要長期積累，但如果您看到，一旦我們排除庫存，毛利率將比第二季的標準化毛利率略有下降。你就是這麼說的嗎？

Yes, exactly. So I'd say it's going to be down sequentially from the 31% that's excluding that write-off, and that's really reflecting the reduced fixed cost coverage that we're going to have as a result of taking those plants down while we cut over.

對，就是這樣。所以我想說，它將從不包括沖銷的 31% 開始連續下降，這確實反映了由於我們在削減這些工廠的同時關閉這些工廠而導致的固定成本覆蓋範圍的減少。 。

Got it. And then in terms of the EBITDA margin, the same logic flows through?

知道了。那麼就 EBITDA 利潤而言，同樣的邏輯也適用嗎？

Absolutely.

絕對地。

Okay. Cool. And then I guess just back to the volume piece, no change there. Still expected for volume to be down mid-single digit for the year. I remember coming out of the last call, there were some questions around that because getting like down -- like real down like mid-single digits, seem kind of challenging if we're thinking Q4 is up even if it's up a little bit and now we have the first half. So if we kind of put it all together and think, well, what about Q3, you're still saying that kind of overall volume should improve year-over-year sequentially relative to Q2 and then Q4 is up a little bit that still gets you down to at least a 4% decline. And I'm just asking that kind of in a detailed way because it is kind of challenging to get down any more than 4%, right?

好的。涼爽的。然後我想回到卷部分，那裡沒有變化。仍預期今年銷量將下降中個位數。我記得在上次電話會議中，有一些關於這個問題的問題，因為如果我們認為第四季度會上漲，即使它上漲了一點點，那麼就像真正的下跌一樣，似乎有點具有挑戰性。現在我們有上半場了。因此，如果我們把所有這些放在一起思考，那麼第三季度呢，你仍然會說，相對於第二季度，總體銷量應該逐年改善，然後第四季度會略有上升，但仍然會出現這種情況。至少下降 4%。我只是以詳細的方式問這個問題，因為降幅超過 4% 有點困難，對吧？

Yes. Rob, yes. So the way to look at it is first, we're really pleased with what we're seeing from a volume perspective and the sequential improvement that we've continued to post. We will be positive in the fourth quarter, but the thing we've got to keep in mind is that we are having reduced shipments as a result of converting over to our new ERP. I spoke about the inventory visibility challenges that we have with our third-party warehouses. I'm confident and that we're correcting those, but we are going to temper our volume increases in the third quarter as a result of that.

是的。羅布，是的。因此，首先，我們對從數量角度看到的情況以及我們繼續發布的連續改進感到非常滿意。我們將在第四季度保持積極的態度，但我們必須記住的是，由於轉換為新的 ERP，我們的出貨量有所減少。我談到了我們的第三方倉庫面臨的庫存可見性挑戰。我有信心，我們正在糾正這些問題，但我們將因此調整第三季的銷售成長。

Okay. So kind of in theory, like volumes could be down in Q3, maybe in a similar way relative to Q2, hopefully a little bit better, but there are a bunch of moving pieces that we shouldn't be expecting like a nice sequential improvement in Q3.

好的。從理論上講，第三季度的銷量可能會下降，也許與第二季度的情況類似，希望會好一點，但有很多變化，我們不應該期待像第二季度的良好連續改進一樣。Q3。

That's right.

這是正確的。

Okay. Cool. And then thirdly, I just want to touch on China quickly, Tom, I think you said China is growing double digit kind of normalized, I guess, once we [exit out] some of the business exits maybe just kind of touch on kind of overall environment in China, kind of what you're seeing, given all the news flow over the past few months? And then maybe just if you could touch on kind of your ability, let's say, to continue to partner with McDonald's over the next couple of years, clearly, as they look to truly expand within the country? That's it.

好的。涼爽的。第三，我只想快速談談中國，湯姆，我想你說中國正在以兩位數的速度正常化增長，我想，一旦我們[退出]一些業務退出，可能只是觸及某種程度鑑於過去幾個月的所有新聞報道，中國的整體環境是你所看到的嗎？然後，也許您是否可以談談您的能力，比如說，在未來幾年內繼續與麥當勞合作，顯然，因為他們希望在國內真正擴張？就是這樣。

Yes, Rob. So as we stated earlier that China is growing at double digits. We're well positioned. We just opened up our second factory over there. It's up and running and operating. It gives us considerable flexibility as we're thinking about the next year's contracting coming up. And so we're -- there's a lot of news feed on China and the economy and all that's going on. But in terms of the category, we feel good about where that's at based on the data we look at, which is telling us it's growing double digits. We've got our plant up and coming.

是的，羅布。正如我們之前所說，中國正在以兩位數的速度成長。我們處於有利位置。我們剛剛在那裡開設了第二家工廠。它已啟動並運行並正在運行。當我們考慮明年的合約時，它為我們提供了相當大的靈活性。因此，我們有很多關於中國和經濟以及正在發生的事情的新聞。但就該類別而言，根據我們查看的數據，我們對這一類別的狀況感到滿意，這些數據告訴我們它正在以兩位數的速度增長。我們的工廠已經建成並即將建成。

We've got line of sight to how we're going to look at that market and potential customers that we can support and more to come on that. But as we go through this contracting season in that international market, we're well positioned to gain some business.

我們已經了解如何看待該市場和我們可以支援的潛在客戶以及更多的支援。但當我們在國際市場經歷這個合約季節時，我們已經做好了獲得一些業務的準備。

Yes. And then just to clarify, the double-digit growth has been in restaurant traffic that we're seeing in China.

是的。然後澄清一下，我們在中國看到的餐廳客流量出現了兩位數的成長。

(Operator Instructions) We will now take our next question from Peter Galbo with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們現在將接受美國銀行 Peter Galbo 提出的下一個問題。

I guess just -- on the pricing front, obviously, you're going through some contract negotiations. But if I remember correctly, you have some contracts, I think, with your global customers that actually kicked in a couple of days ago or I guess the start of Q3. So just can you remind us kind of what the dynamic looks like there or that embedded price that we should be thinking about price/mix that we should be thinking about in the back half of the year?

我想，在定價方面，顯然，你們正在進行一些合約談判。但如果我沒記錯的話，我認為您與全球客戶簽訂了一些合同，這些合同實際上是在幾天前生效的，或者我猜是第三季度開始的。那麼您能否提醒我們，那裡的動態是什麼樣的，或者我們應該在今年下半年考慮的價格/組合的內在價格？

Yes. So we did have some contracts where that pricing took effect in the back half of the year. I think it's key, though, to -- as you look at the back half of the year to expect to see a deceleration from the 17% that we delivered in the first half as we continue to lap those price increases. But yes, we will see the impact of those contracts that are coming up to -- are affecting our pricing in the back half of the year, just like we always have.

是的。因此，我們確實簽訂了一些合同，該定價在今年下半年生效。不過，我認為關鍵是——當你回顧今年下半年時，隨著價格繼續上漲，我們預計會看到我們上半年交付的 17% 增長放緩。但是，是的，我們將看到那些即將到來的合約的影響，這些合約正在影響我們下半年的定價，就像我們一直以來所做的那樣。

Got it. Okay. Okay. And then, Tom, maybe just back to the Investor Day. I know there was a conversation around getting back to algorithm kind of in fiscal '25 and noting some of the volume challenges that you'll begin to lap by then and maybe into Q4? I mean is that kind of still the expectation where we sit today relative to October that as we get into '25, the volume trends could at least get back to what you stated as kind of the long-term algorithm.

知道了。好的。好的。然後，湯姆，也許回到投資者日。我知道在 25 財年有一次關於回到演算法的討論，並注意到那時您將開始應對的一些數量挑戰，也許會進入第四季度？我的意思是，相對於 10 月，我們今天的預期仍然是，當我們進入 25 年時，交易量趨勢至少可以回到您所說的長期演算法。

Yes, Peter, we fully expect to continue to drive and deliver our algorithm over the long-term as we stated in October. And we're working all the channels to deliver that. And as we have in the past, we've been very consistent on meeting those commitments. And I expect and as we look forward, with the category and how we're getting positioned with some of the capacity additions and I fully expect us to drive volume and meet our commitments as we talked about in October.

是的，Peter，正如我們在 10 月所說的那樣，我們完全希望能夠長期繼續推動和交付我們的演算法。我們正在利用所有管道來實現這一目標。正如我們過去所做的那樣，我們一直非常一致地履行這些承諾。我預計，隨著我們的展望，隨著該類別以及我們如何透過增加一些產能來定位，我完全希望我們能夠提高銷量並履行我們在 10 月談到的承諾。

We'll now take our next question from Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

現在我們將回答巴克萊銀行安德魯·拉扎爾提出的下一個問題。

I guess to start with, I was wondering if you're able to sort of help us quantify a little bit maybe how much sort of volume gets pushed from Q3 to Q4 based on some of the cutover dynamics that you mentioned. I'm really trying to get a sense of about what like the underlying sort of volume picture looks like for Q4, particularly as it relates to as we move into next year.

我想首先，我想知道您是否能夠幫助我們根據您提到的一些切換動態來量化從第三季到第四季的交易量。我真的很想了解第四季度的基本成交量情況，特別是因為它與我們進入明年有關。

Yes, Andrew. I think the way to think about that is we're not going to quantify any amount. But certainly, there are some shipments that would be retail and food service that would be lost in third quarter, whereas the chain would be more of a carryover. So again, down or it's going to be tempered in terms of the -- any increase as it relates to volume in the third quarter, but definitely positive in the fourth quarter as we had originally projected.

是的，安德魯。我認為思考這個問題的方法是我們不會量化任何金額。但可以肯定的是，零售和食品服務領域的一些出貨量將在第三季損失，而連鎖店則較多是結轉。因此，再次，下降或它將在任何增長方面得到緩和，因為它與第三季度的銷量有關，但正如我們最初預測的那樣，第四季度肯定是積極的。

If we excluded some of the cutover dynamics, do you think volume in 4Q would have been positive anyway or maybe closer to flattish or even down a little bit -- maybe not...

如果我們排除一些切換動態，您認為第四季度的成交量會是積極的還是可能接近持平甚至下降一點 - 也許不是...

Absolutely positive in the fourth quarter. That's what we've been anticipating since we gave our July guidance and it continues to remain sound.

第四季絕對是積極的。這是我們自發布 7 月指引以來一直預期的情況，並且仍然保持良好。

And then, Tom, I'm curious, you obviously walked away from some lower-margin customers in the back half of last year that you're going to start to lap as we go into the back half of this year. And as you start to replace or start to add in new customers with some of the new capacity coming in, I'm curious where were those -- maybe some of these new customers that you're gaining? Where were they or have they been getting supply from before? And are you displacing others now that you have some capacity? Or I'm trying to get a sense of -- because it doesn't seem like you've ever gone anywhere and not been able to get franchise. So I'm just wondering where some of these new customers were sourcing product maybe before you became a supplier to them, if that makes sense?

然後，湯姆，我很好奇，你顯然在去年下半年離開了一些利潤較低的客戶，而當我們進入今年下半年時，你將開始關注這些客戶。當您開始替換或開始添加新客戶並增加一些新容量時，我很好奇這些新客戶在哪裡 - 也許您正在獲得一些新客戶？他們之前在哪裡或從哪裡獲得供應？既然你有一定的能力，你會取代別人嗎？或者我試著了解一下——因為你似乎從來沒有去過任何地方而無法獲得特許經營權。所以我只是想知道，在您成為這些新客戶的供應商之前，其中一些新客戶可能在哪裡採購產品，這是否有意義？

Yes, Andrew, I understand the question. I'm not going to get into very specifics on customers or where it's coming from. But ideally, we have line of sight to markets, opportunities as we go through our normal contracting season coming up, ideally, it'd be perfect timing, but it doesn't always match when you potentially win business. But we do have a plan. We have line of sight, and I'm not going to get into specifics of where and who and with respect to our customers and I'll just leave it at that, Andrew.

是的，安德魯，我明白這個問題。我不會詳細介紹客戶或客戶的來源。但理想情況下，我們在即將到來的正常合約季節時能夠關注市場和機會，理想情況下，這將是完美的時機，但並不總是與您可能贏得業務的時間相匹配。但我們確實有一個計劃。我們有視線，我不會詳細說明在哪裡、誰以及我們的客戶，我就這樣吧，安德魯。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our next question from Marc Torrente with Wells Fargo Securities.

（操作員說明）我們將接受富國銀行證券公司 Marc Torrente 提出的下一個問題。

It sounds like trends are a little softer than the initial plan from January '23, but you noted demand remained solid relative to the initial guide. Could you maybe reconcile some of that commentary (inaudible) to some of those trends and traffic that you're seeing that gives you confidence on volumes improving on an underlying basis.

聽起來趨勢比 23 年 1 月的最初計劃要軟一些，但您指出，相對於最初的指導，需求仍然穩定。您能否將其中一些評論（聽不清楚）與您所看到的一些趨勢和流量進行協調，這讓您對交易量在根本上有所改善充滿信心。

Yes. As I stated, the crop acres, potato yields, based on what we always -- what we planned for in the initial front end of the crop cycle, certainly was better than what we expected and have seen in the last several years. And the overall forecast, as I stated earlier, that we had in terms of overall volume and sales was a little softer than what we had originally planned.

是的。正如我所說，根據我們在作物週期初期的計劃，作物面積和馬鈴薯產量肯定比我們預期的和過去幾年所看到的要好。正如我之前所說，我們對整體銷售和銷售額的整體預測比我們最初的計劃要軟一些。

As we've been consistent, the guidance we gave in July and continue -- and we upped it in October was based on the forecast we were seeing at the time. And so certainly, there's -- it was not as good as we had planned when we planted the crop. But again, to Bernadette, as she reiterated, we see our forecast from July in terms of sales and volume has not really changed for the balance of the year. So it's really just crop acre yield issue that caused a write-off based on what we initially forecasted in July for FY '24.

由於我們一直保持一致，我們在 7 月份給出的指導並繼續 - 我們在 10 月份上調了指導，這是基於我們當時看到的預測。當然，情況沒有我們種植作物時所規劃的那麼好。但同樣，伯納黛特重申，我們看到 7 月的銷售和銷售預測在今年剩餘時間並沒有真正改變。因此，根據我們最初在 7 月對 24 財年的預測，實際上只是作物英畝產量問題導致了沖銷。

So again, we feel confident about the underlying fundamentals of the business, where we're at our guidance from last time has not changed, and we see line of sight to Q4 volume improving, as we've stated on this call. So all things are pointing towards sequential improvement for the balance of the year, albeit just keep in mind that Q3 is going to have some challenges with the ERP cutover.

因此，我們再次對業務的基本面充滿信心，我們上次的指導沒有改變，我們看到第四季度銷量有所改善，正如我們在這次電話會議中所說的那樣。因此，所有事情都指向今年剩餘時間的連續改善，儘管請記住，第三季將在 ERP 切換方面遇到一些挑戰。

And Tom, if I could add to that. When we made the initial estimate and plan of those acres, you guys see the same data that we do. And U.S. restaurant traffic trends have slowed since that time, and that was included in our updated July forecast. But the fry attachment rate continues to be about pre-pandemic levels and continues to be strong, as Tom mentioned.

湯姆，請讓我補充一下。當我們對這些英畝進行初步估計和規劃時，你們會看到與我們相同的數據。自那時以來，美國餐廳的客流量趨勢已經放緩，這已包含在我們更新的 7 月預測中。但正如湯姆所提到的，魚苗附著率仍然約為疫情前的水平，並且仍然強勁。

Okay. Great. That makes sense. And then you lowered the SG&A outlook for the year, a little more color here. Is that timing around some of those special projects? Are you pulling back on any of the underlying expenses? Or is that better leverage on the core?

好的。偉大的。這就說得通了。然後你降低了今年的SG&A前景，這裡多了一點色彩。這個時間是圍繞著一些特殊項目進行的嗎？您是否會削減任何基本開支？或者說這對核心有更好的影響力？

It's going to be some better leverage, but just overall cost management that we're doing as we look forward to the second half of the year.

這將是一些更好的槓桿，但只是我們在展望下半年時正在進行的整體成本管理。

And that does conclude our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Congbalay for any additional or closing comments.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給 Congbalay 先生以徵求任何補充意見或結束意見。

Thanks, everyone, for joining the call today and a follow-up discussion, please send me an e-mail. We can schedule some time. Other than that, have a great day, and Happy New Year. Thank you.

謝謝大家今天加入電話會議並進行後續討論，請寄電子郵件給我。我們可以安排一些時間。除此之外，祝你有美好的一天，新年快樂。謝謝。

And once again, that does conclude today's conference. We thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議再次結束。我們感謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。