洛克希德·馬丁 (LMT) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome, everyone, to the Lockheed Martin third quarter 2024 earnings results conference call.

美好的一天，歡迎大家參加洛克希德馬丁公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

Today's call is being recorded.

今天的通話正在錄音。

(Operator Instructions) At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Maria Ricciardone, Vice President, Treasurer, and Investor Relations.

（操作員指示）此時，我想將電話轉給副​​總裁、財務主管和投資者關係瑪麗亞·裡恰爾多內 (Maria Ricciardone) 進行開場白和介紹。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, Steve, and good morning.

謝謝你，史蒂夫，早安。

I'd like to welcome everyone to our third quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

歡迎大家參加我們的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

Joining me today on the call are Jim Taiclet, our Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer; and Jay Malave, our Chief Financial Officer.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有我們的董事長、總裁兼執行長 Jim Taiclet；和我們的財務長 Jay Malave。

Statements made in today's call that are not historical facts are considered forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to the Safe Harbor provisions of federal securities law.

今天的電話會議中所做的非歷史事實的陳述被視為前瞻性陳述，並且是根據聯邦證券法的安全港條款做出的。

Actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements.

實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中的預測有重大差異。

Please see today's press release and our SEC filings for a description of some of the factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements.

請參閱今天的新聞稿和我們向 SEC 提交的文件，以了解可能導致實際結果與前瞻性聲明中的結果有重大差異的一些因素的描述。

We've posted charts on our website today that we plan to address during the call to supplement our comments.

我們今天在網站上發布了圖表，我們計劃在電話會議中討論這些圖表以補充我們的評論。

These charts also include information regarding non-GAAP measures that may be used in today's call.

這些圖表還包括有關今天電話會議中可能使用的非公認會計準則衡量標準的資訊。

Please access our website at www.lockheedmartin.com and click on the Investor Relations link to view and follow the charts.

請造訪我們的網站 www.lockheedmartin.com 並點擊投資者關係連結查看並關注圖表。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Jim.

這樣，我就把電話轉給吉姆。

Thanks, Maria.

謝謝，瑪麗亞。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on our third quarter 2024 earnings call.

大家早安，感謝您參加我們的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

The demand for Lockheed Martin systems and services remains robust across all four of our business areas.

我們所有四個業務領域對洛克希德馬丁系統和服務的需求仍然強勁。

We ended Q3 with record backlog of more than $165 billion, reflecting a book-to-bill ratio of 1.3 in the quarter.

截至第三季末，我們的積壓訂單超過 1,650 億美元，創歷史新高，反映該季度的訂單出貨比為 1.3。

Precision and air defense munitions drove the increase, including large orders for Javelin guided multiple launch rockets and joint air-to-surface standoff and long-range antiship missiles.

精確和防空彈藥推動了這一增長，其中包括標槍制導多管火箭、聯合空對地防區外飛彈和遠程反艦飛彈的大量訂單。

Compared with last year's third quarter, sales increased and segment operating margins expanded 20 points to 10.9%, led by missiles and fire control, reflecting increased production volume.

與去年第三季相比，銷售額成長，部門營業利潤率擴大 20 個百分點，達到 10.9%，其中飛彈和火控產品領先，反映了產量的增加。

Free cash flow was $2.1 billion in the quarter as we continue to implement working capital efficiencies and optimization.

隨著我們繼續實施營運資金效率和優化，本季的自由現金流為 21 億美元。

High confidence in our future cash generation prospects supported our Board's recent decision to raise the quarterly dividend by 5% to $3.30, the 22nd consecutive year of increases and to extend our share repurchase authorization.

對未來現金產生前景的高度信心支持我們的董事會最近決定將季度股息提高 5% 至 3.30 美元，這是連續 22 年提高股息，並延長了我們的股票回購授權。

Turning to the F-35, we delivered 48 F-35 aircraft in the quarter.

說到 F-35，我們本季交付了 48 架 F-35 飛機。

We expect to deliver 90 to 110 aircraft in 2024 and the remaining balance of the Lot 15 to 17 aircraft thereafter.

我們預計在 2024 年交付 90 至 110 架飛機，其餘 15 至 17 批飛機隨後交付。

In addition, TR-3 flight testing continues with 95% of combat capabilities validated and additional capabilities progressing.

此外，TR-3 飛行測試仍在繼續，95% 的作戰能力已得到驗證，其他能力也正在取得進展。

With over 1,040 aircraft delivered and growing, the F-35 fleet has become an essential component of the collective security of the US and our global allies.

F-35 機隊已交付超過 1,040 架且還在增加，已成為美國及其全球盟友集體安全的重要組成部分。

For example, by the 2030s, over 600 F-35s will be in operation across more than 10 European nations.

例如，到 2030 年代，超過 600 架 F-35 將在 10 多個歐洲國家投入使用。

And in July, Greece announced that it will be the 19th nation to fly the F-35 and will acquire 20 aircraft.

7月，希臘宣布將成為第19個擁有F-35的國家，並將購買20架飛機。

Plus, the rollout of the initial F-35 for Poland in August marked a significant milestone in our 20-plus year partnership with that country.

此外，8 月為波蘭推出首架 F-35 標誌著我們與該國 20 多年合作關係中的一個重要里程碑。

The F-35 superior sensors, stealth and data sharing capabilities are setting new standards for interoperability and joint operations with our allies, serving as the cornerstone for NATO's deterrence and defense posture.

F-35 卓越的感測器、隱身和資料共享能力正在為我們與盟友的互通性和聯合行動設定新標準，成為北約威懾和防禦態勢的基石。

To further augment the capabilities of the F-35 and our other major platforms, we are investing heavily in autonomy and AI as well as other enabling digital technologies.

為了進一步增強 F-35 和我們其他主要平台的功能，我們正在大力投資自主性和人工智慧以及其他支援數位技術。

As an example, our Lockheed Martin AI Center and our RMS business area conducted realistic teaming scenarios with uncrewed aerial systems or drones, and uncrewed ground vehicles at the US Army in their recent experimental demonstration event.

例如，我們的洛克希德馬丁人工智慧中心和 RMS 業務領域在最近的實驗演示活動中，在美國陸軍中使用無人駕駛航空系統或無人機以及無人駕駛地面車輛進行了真實的團隊場景。

The successful demonstrations exhibited our abilities for using AI, by launching an autonomous drone to provide guidance and navigation instructions to a ground-based robot to help it navigate a dangerous urban environment and enable greater safety for our soldiers than any current approaches can do.

成功的演示展示了我們使用人工智慧的能力，透過啟動自主無人機為地面機器人提供引導和導航指令，幫助其在危險的城市環境中導航，並為我們的士兵提供比任何現有方法更高的安全性。

The rapid integration of digital technologies and capabilities is one element of our 21st Century Security strategy.

數位技術和功能的快速整合是我們 21 世紀安全戰略的要素之一。

Another example of this, in the third quarter, was Lockheed Martin Skunk Works team partnered with the US Air Force Test Pilot School to conduct full-scale live flight tests of an adaptive technology that makes real-time adjustments to flight control algorithms, resulting in substantial time and cost savings.

另一個例子是，第三季度，洛克希德馬丁公司 Skunk Works 團隊與美國空軍試飛員學校合作，對自適應技術進行了全面的現場飛行測試，該技術對飛行控制演算法進行即時調整，從而節省大量時間和成本。

And we do these kind of tech insertions on real, scalable combat platforms.

我們在真實的、可擴展的戰鬥平台上進行此類技術插入。

Those that were implemented on mass can have theater-level effects on combat capability and thereby deterrence from great power armed conflict.

大規模實施的措施可以對戰區作戰能力產生影響，進而嚇阻大國武裝衝突。

The second element of 21st Century Security is designing resilience and antifragility into the defense industrial base.

21 世紀安全的第二個要素是為國防工業基礎設計彈性和反脆弱性。

To this end, we signed a teaming agreement with our partner, General Dynamics in the third quarter for the production of solid rocket motors.

為此，我們在第三季與合作夥伴通用動力公司簽署了固體火箭引擎生產的合作協議。

The initial work will focus on producing SRMs for the GMLRS rocket and will start in 2025 at GD's facility in Camden, Arkansas.

最初的工作將集中於為 GMLRS 火箭生產 SRM，並將於 2025 年在阿肯色州卡姆登的 GD 工廠開始。

This third source of solid rocket motors will enable us to move more quickly to ramp production for critical defense capabilities and strengthen the defense supply chain.

這第三個固體火箭發動機來源將使我們能夠更快地提高關鍵防禦能力的生產並加強國防供應鏈。

The third element of 21st Century Security is the implementation of a global and regional approach to production and sustainment with our allies and partners.

21世紀安全的第三個要素是與我們的盟友和夥伴一起實施全球和區域生產和維持方法。

We have expanded international collaborations to enable indigenous military capability development in countries, including Australia, Germany, Poland, and India.

我們擴大了國際合作，以促進澳洲、德國、波蘭和印度等國家的本土軍事能力發展。

I recently had the opportunity to discuss the expansion of Lockheed Martin's sustainment and production operations in India with Prime Minister Modi in July, including growing the capacity and the capabilities of our joint ventures with Tata that already manufacture C-130J empennages, F-16 wings, and helicopter cabins in Hyderabad.

最近，我有機會在7 月與莫迪總理討論了洛克希德·馬丁公司在印度的保障和生產業務的擴展，包括提高我們與塔塔合資企業的產能和能力，這些合資企業已經生產C- 130J 尾翼、F-16 機翼，以及海得拉巴的直升機機艙。

Turning to the US defense budget, we are currently in a continuing resolution that funds US government operations through December 20 of 2024.

談到美國國防預算，我們目前正在製定一項持續決議，為 2024 年 12 月 20 日之前的美國政府運作提供資金。

For our part, our teammates across all of Lockheed Martin will thereby be able to continue to work diligently to deliver on our customer commitments.

就我們而言，洛克希德馬丁公司的所有團隊成員將能夠繼續努力工作，以兌現我們對客戶的承諾。

We'll also be dedicated to delivering strong financial performance through the remaining months of 2024 and to carry that momentum into the coming year as well.

我們也將致力於在 2024 年剩餘的幾個月裡實現強勁的財務業績，並將這一勢頭延續到來年。

So now I'll turn it over to Jay.

所以現在我會把它交給傑伊。

Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝吉姆，大家早安。

Today, I'll provide an overview of our consolidated financials and operational highlights in the quarter before handing off to Maria, who will cover business area results, and I'll come back to discuss the 2024 outlook and some longer-term trending.

今天，我將概述本季的綜合財務狀況和營運亮點，然後交給 Maria，她將介紹業務領域的業績，我將回來討論 2024 年的前景和一些長期趨勢。

Starting on Chart 4.

從圖 4 開始。

Sales of $17.1 billion were up 1% year over year, led by MFC and RMS.

在 MFC 和 RMS 的帶動下，銷售額達 171 億美元，較去年同期成長 1%。

As expected, Aeronautics was down primarily due to delayed revenue recognition of approximately $700 million associated with the lapse and F-35 program funding as we continue to work through Lot 18 negotiations.

正如預期的那樣，航空業務的下滑主要是由於與 F-35 項目資金失效和我們繼續進行 Lot 18 談判相關的約 7 億美元的收入確認延遲。

Normalizing for that impact, consolidated sales would be up 5% year over year.

考慮到這一影響，綜合銷售額將年增 5%。

Segment operating profit of $1.9 billion was up 3% year over year, with consolidated margins at a respectable 10.9%.

部門營業利潤為 19 億美元，年增 3%，綜合利潤率為 10.9%。

Net profit adjustments in the quarter were higher than prior year and amounted to 20% of segment operating profit.

本季淨利調整高於去年同期，佔部門營業利潤的 20%。

GAAP earnings per share of $6.80 increased 1% year over year, driven by higher profit and lower share count, partially offset by higher interest expense, a higher tax rate, and lower pension income.

GAAP 每股收益為 6.80 美元，年增 1%，原因是利潤增加和股票數量減少，但利息支出增加、稅率提高和退休金收入減少部分抵消了這一影響。

Turning to new business.

轉向新業務。

We recorded over $22 billion of orders in the third quarter for a book-to-bill ratio of approximately 1.3, led by MFC with orders exceeding $8 billion and driving overall backlog to over $165 billion.

第三季度，我們的訂單超過 220 億美元，訂單出貨比約為 1.3，其中 MFC 的訂單超過 80 億美元，總體積壓訂單超過 1,650 億美元。

Free cash flow was $2.1 billion in the quarter, aided by strong collections, including international program advances.

本季自由現金流為 21 億美元，得益於包括國際項目預付款在內的強勁收款。

This brings our year-to-date total free cash flow to just over $4.8 billion, enabling another $700 million of independent research and development and capital expenditures in the quarter, further enhancing our leadership position in 21st Century Security and integrated deterrence.

這使得我們今年迄今的自由現金流總額略高於 48 億美元，使本季的獨立研發和資本支出再增加 7 億美元，進一步增強了我們在 21 世紀安全和綜合威懾領域的領導地位。

Finally, we returned $1.7 billion of our free cash flow to shareholders via share repurchases and dividends.

最後，我們透過股票回購和股利將 17 億美元的自由現金流返還給股東。

Turning to some key operational milestones and program highlights in the quarter.

轉向本季度的一些關鍵營運里程碑和計劃亮點。

At aeronautics, through the third quarter, we delivered 48 F-35s.

在航空領域，截至第三季度，我們交付了 48 架 F-35。

In addition, the team continues to make progress towards Tech Refresh 3 combat capability with incremental milestones on track for completion in the fourth quarter.

此外，該團隊繼續在 Tech Refresh 3 戰鬥能力方面取得進展，增量里程碑預計將在第四季度完成。

Beyond the F-35, the C-130 franchise had a very successful quarter.

除了 F-35 之外，C-130 系列也有一個非常成功的季度。

The worldwide fleet of over 550 C-130J Super Hercules surpassed 3 million flight hours, demonstrating the platform's unmatched global reach and multi-mission versatility.

由超過 550 架 C-130J Super Hercules 組成的全球機隊飛行時間超過 300 萬小時，展示了該平台無與倫比的全球覆蓋範圍和多任務多功能性。

We also delivered the first eight C130J-30 tactical air lifters to the Ohio Youngstown Air Reserve Station in July, and delivered the first J variant aircraft to longtime C-130 customer, New Zealand.

我們還在 7 月向俄亥俄州揚斯敦空軍儲備站交付了首批 8 架 C130J-30 戰術空中運輸機，並向 C-130 的長期客戶新西蘭交付了第一架 J 型飛機。

At RMS, the US Marine Corps formally accepted the 23rd and final next-generation VH-92A presidential helicopter built by Sikorsky, marking a significant milestone for the company, whose aircraft have flown every US President since 1957.

在RMS，美國海軍陸戰隊正式接受了西科斯基製造的第23 架也是最後一架下一代VH-92A 總統直升機，這標誌著該公司的一個重要里程碑，自1957 年以來，該公司的飛機曾曾為歷任美國總統提供飛行服務。

This highly tailored solution, based on the proven S-92 helicopter meets the Marine Corps' unique and critical mission of supporting the Commander in Chief around the world.

這種高度客製化的解決方案基於久經考驗的 S-92 直升機，滿足海軍陸戰隊支援世界各地總司令的獨特而關鍵的使命。

And at space, in September, NASA awarded Lockheed Martin a contract to design and build the next-generation lightning mapper instruments for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or NOAA's GeoXO program.

在太空領域，9 月，美國宇航局 (NASA) 授予洛克希德·馬丁公司一份合同，為國家海洋和大氣管理局 (NOAA) 的 GeoXO 計劃設計和製造下一代閃電測繪儀器。

The baseline contract is valued at approximately $300 million for two instruments with options for an additional two.

基準合約價值約為 3 億美元，涉及兩台儀器，並可選擇購買另外兩台儀器。

This award follows on the GeoXO award we received in June to design and build the core NOAA spacecraft constellation.

該獎項是繼 6 月我們獲得的 GeoXO 獎項之後頒發的，該獎項旨在設計和建造 NOAA 核心航天器星座。

This continues our long tradition of designing and building weather and environmental spacecraft, including many earth observation instruments.

這延續了我們設計和建造天氣和環境太空船（包括許多地球觀測儀器）的悠久傳統。

I'll stop here and hand it over to Maria to talk more about the business area of financials.

我就講到這裡，交給 Maria 來多討論金融業務領域。

Thanks, Jay.

謝謝，傑伊。

Today, I'll discuss third quarter year-over-year results for the business areas.

今天，我將討論業務領域第三季的年比業績。

Starting with aeronautics on Chart 5.

從圖 5 的航空學開始。

Third quarter sales at aero declined 3% year over year, primarily driven by lower F-35 volume due to delays in the Lot 18/19 contract negotiations that Jay previously mentioned, partially offsetting that headwind with higher volume at C-130 and the continued production ramp on the F-16 program.

航空領域第三季銷售額年減3%，主要是由於Jay 先前提到的Lot 18/19 合約談判延遲導致F-35 銷量下降，部分抵消了C-130 銷量增加和持續成長帶來的不利影響。

Segment operating profit decreased 2%, with lower volume and unfavorable mix being partially offset by higher profit booking rate adjustments, mainly due to a favorable adjustment related to a legacy C5 claim.

部門營業利潤下降 2%，銷售下降和不利的組合被較高的利潤登記率調整部分抵消，這主要是由於與遺留 C5 索賠相關的有利調整。

With the F-35 surpassing 1,000 aircraft deliveries this quarter, I'd like to highlight a few other notable items from the other major platforms.

隨著本季 F-35 飛機交付量超過 1,000 架，我想重點介紹其他主要平台的其他一些值得注意的項目。

More than 2,600 C-130 aircraft have been delivered to 63 nations, with more than 550 J variants delivered to 22 countries and Egypt set to become the 23rd.

已有超過 2,600 架 C-130 飛機交付給 63 個國家，其中超過 550 架 J 改型飛機交付給 22 個國家，埃及將成為第 23 個國家。

And the F-16 has delivered more than 4,600 aircraft to 27 countries over the past 50 years.

F-16在過去50年已向27個國家交付了4600多架飛機。

Turning to missiles and fire control on Chart 6.

轉向圖 6 上的飛彈和火控。

MFC had another solid quarter with sales up 8% year over year, driven by production ramps on precision fires programs within the tactical and strike missile segment, primarily guided multiple launch rocket system, GMLRS and long-range antiship missile, LRASM.

MFC 在戰術和攻擊飛彈領域（主要是導引多管火箭系統、GMLRS 和遠程反艦飛彈、LRASM）精確火力項目產量成長的推動下，銷售額年增 8%。

Segment operating profit increased 15% year over year, due to the higher volume and the higher booking rate profit adjustments primarily at PAC-3, while margins were again solid at 14.4%.

由於主要在 PAC-3 的銷量增加和預訂率較高的利潤調整，該部門營業利潤同比增長 15%，而利潤率再次穩定在 14.4%。

MFC's book-to-bill ratio in the quarter was a strong 2.7, leading to another record backlog now over $40 billion, driven by continued global demand.

MFC 本季的訂單出貨比高達 2.7，在全球持續需求的推動下，積壓訂單再次創紀錄，目前已超過 400 億美元。

In the quarter, the US Army awarded the largest single year production contract for Javelin and related equipment, worth $1.3 billion to the Javelin joint venture, as well as a $4 billion contract for GMLRS.

本季度，美國陸軍向標槍合資企業授予價值 13 億美元的最大標槍及相關設備單年生產合同，以及價值 40 億美元的 GMLRS 合約。

The Air Force awarded an over $3 billion multiyear large lot procurement contract for JASSM and LRASM, providing a key antifragility measure to increase industry resilience and ensure operations can be ramped more quickly going forward.

美國空軍為 JASSM 和 LRASM 授予了價值超過 30 億美元的多年期大批量採購合同，提供了關鍵的反脆弱性措施，以提高行業彈性並確保未來能夠更快地提升營運能力。

Shifting to rotary and mission systems on Chart 7.

轉向圖 7 上的旋轉和任務系統。

Sales increased 6% in the quarter to $4.4 billion, primarily driven by higher volume at integrated warfare systems and sensors on radar programs, as well as the Canadian Surface Combatant program.

該季度銷售額增長 6%，達到 44 億美元，主要是由於綜合作戰系統和雷達感測器項目以及加拿大水面作戰項目的銷售增加。

Sikorsky programs also saw higher volume led by CH-53K, Black Hawk, and Seahawk.

西科斯基計畫的銷量也有所增加，其中 CH-53K、黑鷹和海鷹領銜。

Operating profit was comparable to the prior year with higher volumes being offset by lower profit booking rate adjustments.

營業利潤與前一年相當，較高的銷售量被較低的利潤預訂率調整所抵銷。

Finally, at space on Chart 8, sales decreased slightly year over year.

最後，在圖 8 中，銷售額較去年同期略有下降。

The reduction was driven by lower volume at commercial civil space, primarily on the Orion program, partially offset by higher volume at strategic and missile defense on our strategic re-entry programs.

這一減少是由於商業民用航太業務量的減少（主要是獵戶座計劃）造成的，部分被戰略再入計劃的戰略和導彈防禦業務量的增加所抵消。

Operating profit increased 5% compared to Q3 2023, driven by favorable mix, partially offset by lower equity earnings from United Launch Alliance, ULA.

受有利組合的推動，營業利潤較 2023 年第三季增長 5%，但部分被聯合發射聯盟 (ULA) 的股本收益下降所抵消。

Recently, space was awarded a contract to continue nearly 70 years of partnership between the US Navy and Lockheed Martin through the Fleet Ballistic Missile, FBM program, a key component of our nation's strategic deterrence.

最近，太空公司獲得了一份合同，透過艦隊彈道飛彈、FBM 計畫繼續美國海軍和洛克希德馬丁公司之間近 70 年的合作夥伴關係，該計畫是我國戰略威懾的關鍵組成部分。

Under the contract, we will provide Trident missile production support and re-entry system hardware as well as operations and maintenance to support the readiness and reliability of the missile systems.

根據合同，我們將提供三叉戟飛彈生產支援和再入系統硬體以及營運和維護，以支援飛彈系統的就緒性和可靠性。

FBM will continue to be a growth driver for space for years to come.

FBM 將在未來幾年繼續成為太空產業的成長動力。

Now I'll turn it back over to Jay to wrap up our prepared remarks.

現在我將把它轉回傑伊來總結我們準備好的演講。

Thanks, Maria.

謝謝，瑪麗亞。

All right.

好的。

Turning to Chart 9 and our outlook for 2024.

轉向圖 9 和我們對 2024 年的展望。

With one quarter remaining, we've shifted to approximate point estimates that reflect increased expectations for sales, segment operating profit, earnings per share, and free cash flow.

還剩下一個季度，我們已經轉向近似點估計，以反映對銷售、部門營業利潤、每股收益和自由現金流的預期增加。

We have slightly reduced our share repurchase target for the year to approximately $3.7 billion, primarily due to the redeployment of capital to the Terran Orbital acquisition.

我們已將今年的股票回購目標略微降低至約 37 億美元，這主要是由於對 Terran Orbital 收購進行了資本重新部署。

All told, we still expect to return greater than 100% of free cash flow to shareholders in 2024 via repurchases and dividends.

總而言之，我們仍然預計到 2024 年將透過回購和股利將超過 100% 的自由現金流返還給股東。

Quickly stepping through the other metrics, we estimate sales of approximately $71.25 billion, reflecting growth of 5% over 2023 as our backlog continues to convert across the portfolio.

快速瀏覽其他指標，我們估計銷售額約為 712.5 億美元，隨著我們的積壓訂單繼續在整個產品組合中轉化，2023 年將成長 5%。

We're also increasing the segment operating profit expectation driven by the higher sales volume to approximately $7.475 billion, and we continue to anticipate consolidated segment operating profit margins of approximately 10.5%.

由於銷售量增加，我們也將部門營業利潤預期提高至約 74.75 億美元，我們繼續預期綜合部門營業利潤率約為 10.5%。

Moving to earnings per share.

轉向每股收益。

We're increasing our forecast by $0.30 from the prior midpoint to approximately $26.65. Primary drivers of the change are incremental profit of about $0.17, with other below-the-line items and taxes bringing in an additional $0.13.

我們將預測從先前的中點上調 0.30 美元，達到約 26.65 美元。這項變更的主要驅動力是約 0.17 美元的增量利潤，其他線下項目和稅收帶來了額外的 0.13 美元。

And lastly, on free cash flow.

最後，關於自由現金流。

We now estimate approximately $6.2 billion for the year, up slightly from the prior midpoint, while absorbing the unfavorable impact of the recent F-35 Lot 15 to 17 aircraft delivery settlement, which we estimate will be approximately $600 million in 2024 with expected recovery over the next few years.

我們現在估計今年約為62 億美元，略高於先前的中點，同時吸收了最近F-35 第15 至17 批飛機交付結算的不利影響，我們估計2024 年將達到約6 億美元，預計將在2024 年恢復未來幾年。

Before I talk about trending, I'd like to reiterate a few key assumptions regarding our 2024 outlook.

在談論趨勢之前，我想重申一些關於 2024 年前景的關鍵假設。

First, we expect F-35 Lot 18/19 to be awarded this year, maintaining program funding and continuity.

首先，我們預計 F-35 Lot 18/19 將在今年授予，以保持專案資金和連續性。

We continue to make progress in negotiations towards a contract that secures our mutual goals of delivering advanced fifth generation fighter capability to our services.

我們在合約談判中繼續取得進展，以確保我們為我們的軍種提供先進的第五代戰鬥機能力的共同目標。

Should the negotiation timeline extend beyond year-end, the financial impact would be one of timing.

如果談判時間延長到年底之後，財務影響將是時間問題之一。

We could see about 3% or $2 billion of our sales shift into 2025 along with associated impacts to profit and about $1 billion of free cash flow.

我們可能會看到約 3% 或 20 億美元的銷售額轉移到 2025 年，同時也會對利潤和約 10 億美元的自由現金流產生相關影響。

The second key assumption is that we continue to anticipate $325 million of full year losses on the MFC classified program.

第二個關鍵假設是，我們繼續預期 MFC 分類計畫將全年虧損 3.25 億美元。

That said, we will continue to assess facts and circumstances that could lead to the recognition of additional losses in the year.

也就是說，我們將繼續評估可能導致今年確認額外損失的事實和情況。

And third, this outlook does not assume any pension contribution in 2024.

第三，這項展望並未假設 2024 年會有任何退休金繳款。

All right, so let's shift now to the outlook beyond 2024, and I'll provide a multiyear framework on Chart 10.

好吧，現在讓我們展望 2024 年後的前景，我將在圖 10 上提供一個多年框架。

To start with, our record backlog position provides a strong foundation for sustained top-line growth over the coming years.

首先，我們創紀錄的積壓狀況為未來幾年的持續營收成長奠定了堅實的基礎。

Looking at sales through the 2027 timeline, our baseline assumption still reflects a low single-digit compound annual growth rate off of the higher-than expected sales expectation for 2024.

綜觀 2027 年的銷售情況，我們的基準假設仍反映出較低的個位數複合年增長率，而 2024 年的銷售預期高於預期。

As I stated previously, the demand signals point to mid-single-digit growth through 2027, but the outlook remains tempered by our current assessment of the pace at which the value chain can meet the demand.

正如我之前所說，需求訊號顯示到 2027 年將出現中等個位數成長，但我們目前對價值鏈滿足需求的速度的評估仍然影響著前景。

Our confidence in a mid-single-digit growth rate will grow as clarity increases on new business campaigns, funding stability, and capacity acceleration of the production systems.

隨著新業務活動、資金穩定性和生產系統產能加速的清晰度的提高，我們對中個位數成長率的信心將會增強。

On segment margins, we anticipate improvement of 10 basis points to 20 basis points per year based on our continued focus on operational excellence and program performance, combined with program de-risking.

在分部利潤率方面，基於我們對卓越營運和專案績效的持續關注以及專案去風險化，我們預計每年將提高 10 個基點至 20 個基點。

So in other words, steady improvement to a more normal range of around 11% ROS by 2027.

換句話說，到 2027 年，ROS 會穩定改善到 11% 左右的更正常範圍。

Thinking about EPS trends over the three-year horizon, while we anticipate year-over-year benefits from higher segment operating profit and a lower share count, these benefits will be diluted by continued FAS/CAS pension headwinds, particularly in 2025, and higher effective tax rates from a change in certain deductions based on current law.

考慮到三年內的每股收益趨勢，雖然我們預計較高的部門營業利潤和較低的股份數量將帶來同比收益，但這些收益將被持續的FAS/CAS 退休金逆風所稀釋，特別是在2025 年以及更高的水平根據現行法律某些扣除額的變化而產生的有效稅率。

For free cash flow, we continue to target a low single-digit CAGR through 2027, based on delivering cumulative working capital reductions that partially offset known pension contribution headwinds.

對於自由現金流，我們的目標是到 2027 年實現較低的個位數複合年增長率，其基礎是實現累計營運資本減少，部分抵消已知的退休金繳款不利因素。

While offsetting the pension contributions dollar for dollar in each year with working capital reductions alone is a challenge, we have confidence that we could fully offset the headwinds and improve the growth rate to mid-single digits through the combination of organic and inorganic cash generation initiatives.

雖然僅透過減少營運資本來抵消每年的退休金繳款是一個挑戰，但我們有信心透過有機和無機現金產生計劃的結合，完全抵消不利因素並將成長率提高到中個位數。

We'll provide more details in January as we show our plans with better visibility to 2024 pension asset returns, post-election policy, and interest rates.

我們將在 1 月份提供更多詳細信息，同時展示我們的計劃，以便更好地了解 2024 年養老金資產回報、選舉後政策和利率。

Overall, this baseline multiyear framework remains consistent to the investment thesis we've discussed previously.

整體而言，這個基準多年架構與我們先前討論的投資理論保持一致。

We still expect single digit -- low single-digit free cash flow growth over the next three years, supplemented by share repurchases to deliver mid-single-digit free cash flow per share return over the same horizon with upside potential.

我們仍預期未來三年自由現金流將出現個位數低點成長，並輔以股票回購，以在同一時期實現每股中個位數自由現金流回報，並具有上升潛力。

So in summary, on Chart 11.

總結一下，如圖 11 所示。

Performance year-to-date gives us confidence to raise the full year outlook for 2024 and in our ability to deliver solid sales and free cash flow growth over the next few years.

今年迄今的業績讓我們有信心提高 2024 年全年展望，並有能力在未來幾年實現穩健的銷售和自由現金流成長。

At the same time, we continue to invest in digital transformation capabilities and innovative technologies that will help differentiate our mission solutions for customers.

同時，我們繼續投資於數位轉型能力和創新技術，這將有助於我們為客戶提供差異化的任務解決方案。

And we remain focused on operational execution to deliver on our commitments and long-term value for our customers and shareholders alike.

我們仍然專注於營運執行，以兌現我們的承諾，為我們的客戶和股東帶來長期價值。

With that, Steve, let's open up the call for Q&A.

史蒂夫，讓我們開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Ron Epstein, Bank of America.

（操作員指令）Ron Epstein，美國銀行。

Maybe circling back on some of your prepared comments, Jim, when we think about the current situation in kind of the tactical fighter world, where it seems the Air Force is giving a rethink to NGAD, the system, what it should be.

也許回想一下你準備好的一些評論，吉姆，當我們思考戰術戰鬥機世界的當前情況時，空軍似乎正在重新思考 NGAD，這個系統，它應該是什麼。

You mentioned some of the work you guys are doing on AI and drones.

您提到了你們在人工智慧和無人機方面所做的一些工作。

If you look at how Increment 1 of CCA was awarded to maybe non-usual companies, right, and kind of new players, how are you thinking about Increment 2?

如果您看看 CCA 的增量 1 是如何授予可能非常規公司（對的，以及某種新參與者）的，那麼您如何看待增量 2？

And what the interplay between manned and unmanned systems, tactical fighters, drones?

載人與無人系統、戰術戰鬥機、無人機之間的互動如何？

I mean, does it change how you think about going forward, what NGAD could be and what it means for Lockheed?

我的意思是，它是否會改變您對未來的看法、NGAD 可能是什麼以及它對洛克希德公司意味著什麼？

Sure, Ron.

當然，羅恩。

We're preserving our optionality based on what the US government and services determined to be their strategy for tactical fighter deployment over the next 20, 30 years.

我們將根據美國政府和軍種確定的未來 20 年、30 年戰術戰鬥機部署戰略保留我們的選擇權。

And so part of that strategy is having our Skunk Works continue to develop technologies that could be implemented for a sixth-generation tactical aircraft, it's a step function above what the F-22 and F-35 can do today.

因此，該策略的一部分是讓我們的 Skunk Works 繼續開發可用於第六代戰術飛機的技術，比目前的 F-22 和 F-35 更先進。

So we are investing time, talent, and energy into that in Skunk Works, which is in this setting, all we can really say about that.

因此，我們在 Skunk Works 中投入了時間、人才和精力，在這種背景下，我們只能說這一點。

The second piece of it, though, is the crewed, uncrewed teaming, element of whether it's NGAD or F-35 plus CCA, if you will, or multiple CCAs, we're already working that out too.

不過，第二部分是載人、無人編組，無論是 NGAD 或 F-35 加 CCA（如果你願意的話）或多個 CCA，我們也已經在解決這個問題了。

We've developed a pod that will enable the F-35 to control even today, CCAs, if you will.

我們開發了一種吊艙，即使在今天，F-35 也能控制 CCA，如果你願意的話。

And we have a flight control system and communication system in development that will enable that as well.

我們正在開發飛行控制系統和通訊系統，這也將實現這一點。

And that could be converted, I think, to F-22 as well.

我認為，這也可以改裝為 F-22。

So we are working both of those elements.

所以我們正在研究這兩個要素。

But the key part of it is you still got to have volume, and I'm an ex-Air Force pilot myself.

但其中的關鍵部分是你仍然需要有數量，而且我自己也是一名前空軍飛行員。

We have to be able to meet the J-20, which is the Chinese combat tactical aircraft, fifth generation as well, with enough numbers in the Pacific, or at least field enough numbers of -- it's F-35 and F-22 now is the only really competitive jets against the J-20, one-to-one.

我們必須能夠在太平洋上擁有足夠數量的殲20，它也是中國的第五代戰術飛機，或至少部署足夠數量的戰鬥機——現在是F-35和F-22是唯一真正能夠與J-20 一對一競爭的噴射機。

We have to field enough of those aircraft in a short enough time frame to maintain an effective deterrent in the Pacific.

我們必須在足夠短的時間內部署足夠的飛機，以在太平洋地區保持有效的威懾力。

And the Russians are also developing fifth-generation aircraft as well.

俄羅斯也在開發第五代飛機。

So the threat will emerge in Europe too.

因此，歐洲也會出現這種威脅。

So we got to have volume to start with on fifth gen.

所以我們必須從第五代產品開始就有銷售量。

We need to be able to bring autonomy in the CCA concept into fifth gen and sixth gen if there is one.

我們需要能夠將 CCA 概念中的自主性帶入第五代和第六代（如果有的話）。

So we're keeping all of those avenues open and we're investing really in all three, again, to preserve the optionality for the defense industrial base and our partners to be able to deliver on which of those strategies or what combination that the US government decides to pursue.

因此，我們將保持所有這些途徑的開放，並且我們再次對這三個途徑進行真正的投資，以保留國防工業基礎和我們的合作夥伴的選擇權，以便能夠實現美國所希望的戰略或組合。政府決定追究。

And I'll just add, Ron, just in our outlook, the multiyear outlook that I gave you, that accounts for and assumes that we'll have incremental -- significantly incremental investment in areas such as autonomy, AI, crude-uncrude teaming, and manned control systems.

羅恩，我只想補充一點，在我們的展望中，我給你的多年展望，考慮並假設我們將在自主、人工智慧、原始團隊等領域進行增量投資。

So we feel that our investment is going to the right places as these platforms and systems evolve.

因此，我們認為，隨著這些平台和系統的發展，我們的投資將流向正確的地方。

Yes.

是的。

And as far as Increment 2 on the CCA, Ron, the way it's been described to us is Increment 1 was proof of concept, more of an experimental kind of approach.

至於 CCA 上的增量 2，Ron，向我們描述的增量 1 是概念驗證，更多的是一種實驗方法。

Increment 2 is going to be targeted to be fieldable combat-ready, scalable design, and production of the uncrewed teaming half of the system.

Increment 2 的目標是為可部署的戰鬥做好準備，可擴展設計和生產系統的無人團隊部分。

So we are fully dedicated to that.

因此，我們完全致力於此。

Like I said, we have Skunk Works working on both the parent and the child, if you will, when it comes to all CCA concepts and Increment 2 is going to be really where we're, I think, most competitive because we can show that we can control these vehicles with today's technology already at scale.

就像我說的，我們有 Skunk Works 致力於父母和孩子，如果你願意的話，當涉及到所有 CCA 概念時，我認為增量 2 將真正是我們最具競爭力的地方，因為我們可以展示我們可以利用當今的技術大規模地控制這些車輛。

So we're going to be eager to compete for that.

因此，我們將渴望為此競爭。

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

希拉·卡哈奧格魯，杰弗里斯。

Jay, maybe one for you.

傑伊，也許有一個適合你。

Maybe if we could go to Slide 10.

也許我們可以看投影片 10。

I appreciate you giving the long-term -- medium-term targets for low single-digit revenue growth.

我感謝您提出低個位數收入成長的長期中期目標。

Can you maybe rank order the segment with MFC leading.

您可以對 MFC 領先的部分進行排序嗎？

I think you've talked about mid-single-digit growth of $750 million there.

我想您已經談到了 7.5 億美元的中個位數成長。

And what other segments follow.

以及其他細分市場的後續情況。

What campaigns get you to that mid-single-digit opportunity for top-line growth?

哪些行銷活動可以讓您獲得中等個位數的收入成長機會？

Yeah, sure.

是的，當然。

Thank you, Sheila.

謝謝你，希拉。

You kind of nailed it in your question, the leader of growth will be MFC over this time period through 2027.

您的問題已經很明確了，從 2027 年開始，MFC 將成為成長的領導者。

And I would put them at the high single-digit clip very comfortably based on the backlog that they have today and the visibility we have to incremental orders.

根據他們今天的積壓訂單以及我們對增量訂單的可見性，我會非常輕鬆地把他們放在高個位數的水平上。

The other three business areas in this framework, at least starting off with this low single digit, the rest of them will be in this low single-digit framework pretty kind of consistently.

該框架中的其他三個業務領域，至少從這個低個位數開始，其餘的將相當一致地處於這個低個位數框架中。

Now how do we go from a low single digit to a high single digit?

現在我們要如何從低個位數變成高個位數？

Quite frankly, a lot of that opportunity is already sitting in the backlog.

坦白說，很多機會已經積壓了。

If the system can convert, and I'd say the entire enterprise, so it's not just supply chain, it's our operations as well, can convert on that backlog quicker, and we did see this in 2024.

如果系統可以轉換，我想說的是整個企業，那麼不僅僅是供應鏈，還有我們的運營，都可以更快地轉換積壓的訂單，我們確實在 2024 年看到了這一點。

If you recall, we came into the year thinking that we would grow low single digit, and we converted that and changed it to 5% growth here in 2024.

如果你還記得的話，我們在進入這一年時認為我們的成長會低個位數，但我們對此進行了轉換，並將其更改為 2024 年的 5% 成長。

So under the same framework, it is a step change from where we are in 2024, but we demonstrated that we can improve throughout the year.

因此，在相同的框架下，這與 2024 年的情況相比是一個階躍變化，但我們證明了我們可以全年改進。

So as that visibility gets better, that would enable us to go from a low single digit to a mid-single digit.

因此，隨著可見度變得更好，這將使我們能夠從低個位數上升到中個位數。

Yes, there are other campaigns and some of those are classified.

是的，還有其他活動，其中一些是機密的。

If you go back a few years, we talked about the four pillars of growth, new awards was an element of that as well as classified growth.

如果你回到幾年前，我們討論了成長的四大支柱，新獎項以及分類成長都是其中的一個要素。

New awards, we got one of those, which is the next-generation interceptor.

新獎項，我們獲得了其中之一，那就是下一代攔截機。

So that's already a win.

所以這已經是一場勝利。

The other one would be in our -- really our classified portfolio, and those are campaigns that will happen over the next -- I would say, 6 to 18 months.

另一個將在我們的——實際上是我們的機密投資組合中，這些活動將在接下來——我想說，6 到 18 個月內發生。

But as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, the foundation for the growth to mid-single digit is pretty solid.

但正如我在準備好的發言中所提到的，成長到中個位數的基礎相當堅實。

It's -- at least in the short term, is more of a conversion issue.

至少在短期內，這更多的是一個轉換問題。

Noah Poponak, Goldman Sachs.

諾亞·波波納克，高盛。

Jay, I was hoping to get some more help from you on the MFC margin.

Jay，我希望在 MFC 方面能從你那裡得到更多幫助。

Do the last two quarters suggest the operating performance is better?

近兩季是否顯示經營業績較好？

Or is it just that the loss accrual is loaded into the fourth quarter?

或只是將應計損失計入第四季？

And I guess, remind me why the accounting is that way as opposed to taking it all when you know you have it?

我想，提醒我為什麼會計是這樣的，而不是在你知道你擁有它的時候把它全部拿走？

And I don't know if you could talk about how you expect that to progress through '25.

我不知道你是否可以談談你期望在 25 年期間取得怎樣的進展。

But I guess just fundamentally, like is the new classified program or the overall operating performance in the segment, is it improving or worsening or is it just the volatility is accounting?

但我想從根本上來說，就像新的分類計劃或該部門的整體營運績效一樣，它是在改善還是惡化，或者只是波動性在起作用？

Yeah.

是的。

I would say the volatility is kind of -- I would say in this year to date, their performance is better than prior year.

我想說的是，今年到目前為止，他們的表現比去年好。

We've seen an improvement.

我們已經看到了進步。

When you put aside the losses related to the classified program, their profit adjustments year to date have shown growth, and they're performing, I think, pretty well in the base.

當你拋開與機密項目相關的損失時，他們今年迄今為止的利潤調整已經顯示出成長，而且我認為他們的基礎表現相當不錯。

So this was a good quarter, as an example, we didn't really record any losses related to the classified program, and we delivered 14.4% margins in the quarter, and that's essentially where they're operating this year ex the losses.

因此，這是一個很好的季度，例如，我們並沒有真正記錄與分類項目相關的任何損失，我們在該季度實現了 14.4% 的利潤率，這基本上就是他們今年扣除損失後的運營情況。

You got it right as far as timing, we would expect -- we recorded $100 million in the first quarter.

正如我們所期望的那樣，就時間安排而言，我們在第一季錄得 1 億美元。

So that would say that about $225 million were record or what's included in our guidance for the fourth quarter.

因此，大約 2.25 億美元創紀錄，或包含在我們第四季度的指導中。

As far as your question on the accounting, it's a good question.

至於你關於會計的問題，這是一個很好的問題。

It really depends on the facts and circumstances and the probability.

這實際上取決於事實、情況和機率。

We have to make an assessment and a probability of the exercise of certain options.

我們必須對某些選項的行使進行評估和機率。

And so the visibility is clear as things are more short term and the visibility gets a little bit more murkier as you go out a little bit further.

因此，當事情變得更短期時，能見度是清晰的，而當你走得更遠時，能見度會變得更加模糊。

So you have to make assessments of similar facts such as customer interactions that we have, their intentions, visibility to funding over a longer period of time, the performance of the system is one in how we're doing from a testing perspective.

因此，您必須對類似的事實進行評估，例如我們與客戶的互動、他們的意圖、較長時間內資金的可見性，系統的表現是我們從測試角度來看的表現之一。

So all of these factors taken together have to go into the assessment to determine if and when we record a forward loss.

因此，必須將所有這些因素結合起來進行評估，以確定我們是否以及何時記錄遠期損失。

And so that's where we are.

這就是我們現在的處境。

As far as 2025, a baseline assumption would be that we -- you go from $325 million to anywhere between, say, $250 million to $300 million in losses in 2025, assuming a 1 per year type of framework.

就 2025 年而言，基準假設是，假設採用每年 1 的框架，到 2025 年，我們的損失將從 3.25 億美元增加到 2.5 億美元到 3 億美元之間。

As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we have to take another look at whether or not there will be additional losses that have to be recognized early on to your question.

正如我在準備好的發言中所提到的，我們必須重新審視是否會存在額外的損失，必須儘早您的問題予以承認。

And again, that's a really quarter-to-quarter assessment that we have to make.

再說一遍，這確實是我們必須進行的季度評估。

Myles Walton, Wolfe Research.

邁爾斯·沃爾頓，沃爾夫研究中心。

Jim, just a follow-up first on CCA.

Jim，首先是 CCA 的後續行動。

Are you currently competing on the autonomy portion of Increment 1?

您目前正在參與增量 1 的自治部分的競爭嗎？

And is that what gives you a better feeling for where Increment 2 Lockheed could be?

這是否讓您對 Increment 2 Lockheed 的位置有了更好的感覺？

And then, Jay, could you just update us on the aero classified contract?

然後，傑伊，你能給我們介紹一下航空分類合約的最新情況嗎？

I think you booked another charge in the quarter.

我認為您在本季度又預訂了一次費用。

I'm just curious if there's any line of sight to when you're sort of back on the right side of that program?

我只是好奇當你回到該計劃的右側時是否有任何視線？

So Myles, based on the classification of the CCA program, especially longer term, I can't refer to it directly as far as who's competing for what element of it.

因此，Myles，根據 CCA 計劃的分類，尤其是長期的分類，我無法直接提及誰在競爭其中的哪些部分。

But what I can tell you is, echoing Jay, we are investing heavily in autonomy, AI, 5G connectivity distributed remote node cloud, those kinds of things that enable a CCA-type device to be effective.

但我可以告訴你的是，與 Jay 一樣，我們正在大力投資自主性、人工智慧、5G 連接分散式遠端節點雲，這些使 CCA 型設備變得有效。

Now we're testing in open air, I'll call it, these kind of technologies with existing platforms, which is another use case, but it's one we could talk about.

現在我們正在露天測試，我稱之為，這些技術與現有平台，這是另一個用例，但這是我們可以討論的一個。

So you've already seen potentially that we've got an autonomous Black Hawk up and running full capability helicopter that can do missions with you sitting on your couch in your living room, programming the mission in and changing it in a flight on your iPad, right?

因此，您可能已經看到，我們已經擁有一架自主黑鷹直升機並正在運行全功能直升機，您可以坐在客廳的沙發上執行任務，在 iPad 上對任務進行編程並在飛行中進行更改， 正確的？

This is scalable, big hardware, big effect platforms that can be elevated in their capability with autonomy, AI, et cetera.

這是一個可擴展的、大型硬體、大效果的平台，可以透過自主、人工智慧等來提升其能力。

We've also done the same thing within F-16 with the Air Force that shows that we can actually dog fight an F-16 without a pilot in it and be effective.

我們還在空軍的 F-16 中做了同樣的事情，這表明我們實際上可以在沒有飛行員的情況下與 F-16 進行狗鬥並且有效。

So these technologies, one could probably surmise if you can apply them to legacy hardware at that level of scale that you can certainly apply them to hardware that is a smaller scale on crewed as well.

因此，人們可能會猜測，如果您可以將這些技術應用於那種規模級別的傳統硬件，那麼您當然也可以將它們應用於較小規模的載人硬體。

On the question on the classified program at aeronautics, we did realize incremental risk in the quarter.

關於航空機密專案的問題，我們確實意識到本季的風險增量。

In the press release, we had about $80 million there.

在新聞稿中，我們有大約 8000 萬美元。

Year to date, we're about $145 million.

今年迄今為止，我們的收入約為 1.45 億美元。

So we have, obviously, realized some incremental earnings that have converted to incremental losses.

因此，顯然，我們已經實現了一些增量收益，這些收益已轉化為增量損失。

It's a classified program, so I can't really talk too much about what it is.

這是一個機密程序，所以我不能談論太多它是什麼。

But what I can tell you is that we are essentially meeting our scheduled objectives, albeit at a higher cost.

但我可以告訴你的是，我們基本上實現了預定目標，儘管成本較高。

And I would say the cost is really a function of the aggressive pricing that we bid originally.

我想說，成本實際上是我們最初投標的積極定價的函數。

And so as we recalibrate, we are kind of keeping an eye on our cost.

因此，當我們重新調整時，我們會密切注意我們的成本。

We'll do continuous reviews, as you would expect us to do.

正如您所期望的那樣，我們將進行持續審查。

And we'll have another review here in November with the team, so we can go back and understand and pressure test the risk management plan.

我們將在 11 月與團隊進行另一次審查，以便我們可以回去了解風險管理計劃並對其進行壓力測試。

But it's not just an oversight function.

但這不僅僅是監督職能。

I think it's incumbent upon us as a leadership team to not only provide oversight, but also make sure that we're providing the tools and the resources to make sure they're successful.

我認為作為領導團隊，我們有責任不僅提供監督，還要確保我們提供工具和資源以確保他們的成功。

This program will be managed as a whole team, and we're all in it together.

該計劃將作為一個整體團隊進行管理，我們都將共同參與其中。

And as I mentioned on the cost, it's -- again, it was bid aggressively.

正如我在成本方面提到的，它再次被積極出價。

Jim and I have been pretty firm over the past few years that really reining in those practices, and we really haven't seen any of those since that time.

吉姆和我在過去幾年裡一直非常堅定地嚴格控制這些做法，從那時起我們就再也沒有看到過這樣的情況。

And so we've got a contractual commitment that we've got to meet, and we will meet, and we'll manage this program as best as we possibly can.

因此，我們有一個必須履行的合約承諾，我們將會履行，我們將盡最大努力管理這個專案。

And I think part of what we're trying to do is change the trajectory, drive towards better outcomes, while at the same time deliver the mission capability that we've contracted to give our customer.

我認為我們正在努力做的部分事情是改變軌跡，推動更好的結果，同時交付我們合約中為客戶提供的任務能力。

And Myles, I can speak to one command and control system that we have demonstrated because it was, again, an open space.

邁爾斯，我可以與我們演示的一個命令和控制系統交談，因為它又是一個開放空間。

Recently, the Air Force put on its -- Air and Space Force put on its sort of annual gathering, if you will, outside of Washington, D.C.

最近，空軍在華盛頓特區外舉行了空軍和太空軍舉行的年度聚會，如果你願意的話。

And in our -- it's a bit of a trade show set up, so it was public.

在我們這裡，這有點像貿易展覽，所以它是公開的。

We were demonstrating to our customers there in open space, again, not classified, our ability to use that iPad technology to control eight CCAs off an F-35 flight control and comm systems.

我們在開放空間（非機密）向客戶展示了我們使用 iPad 技術控制 F-35 飛行控制和通訊系統上的 8 個 CCA 的能力。

So we've already shown that out in the open.

所以我們已經公開地展示了這一點。

But again, that's technology we've been working on for literally a decade or two at Skunk Works.

但同樣，這也是我們在 Skunk Works 工作了一兩年的科技。

Doug Harned, Bernstein.

道格·哈內德，伯恩斯坦。

On F-35, you said that you expect the Lot -- you don't know for sure, but the Lot 18 and 19 negotiations hopefully will be completed in Q4, Tech Refresh 3 are 95% through.

關於 F-35，你說你期待批次 - 你不確定，但批次 18 和批次 19 的談判預計在第四季度完成，技術更新 3 已完成 95％。

What I'm trying to understand are really two things.

我想了解的其實是兩件事。

A lot of times, you can have 5% left on something.

很多時候，你可以在某件事上剩下 5%。

This has been going on a long time getting Tech Refresh 3 done.

為了完成 Tech Refresh 3，這種情況已經持續很久了。

How do we get confident that you're going to get there in Q4.

我們如何確信您將在第四季實現這一目標？

And does this have an interplay with the Lot 18 and 19 negotiations?

這與 Lot 18 和 Lot 19 談判有交互作用嗎？

Because if I can just ask separately, we're trying to understand what the cash implications are in 2025 if you get all this done or perhaps if it slips?

因為如果我可以單獨問一下，我們試圖了解如果你完成所有這些工作或可能出現下滑，到 2025 年會對現金產生什麼影響？

So Doug, it's Jim.

道格，是吉姆。

I'll start off.

我就開始吧。

I want to lay out the fundamental framework of the F-35 program.

我想列出F-35計劃的基本架構。

And then I'll turn it over to Jay for some of the cash flow impacts and expectations in the financial results of that.

然後我會將其交給傑伊，以了解其對現金流的影響和財務結果的預期。

So first of all, just to reiterate, there's a very important distinction between the F-35 production system and how we book revenue and profit on the production system versus the event of final aircraft delivery, which is actually a fairly small proportion of the revenue and profit that an F-35 aircraft generates for industry, right?

首先，重申一下，F-35 生產系統以及我們如何在生產系統上記帳收入和利潤與最終飛機交付事件之間有一個非常重要的區別，最終飛機交付實際上只佔收入的一小部分以及F -35 飛機為工業帶來的利潤，對嗎？

So that important distinction.

所以這是重要的區別。

Now there's two current program conditions that you touched on that affect both of these outcomes, right?

您提到的當前計劃條件有兩個會影響這兩個結果，對吧？

So what I want to also emphasize is both of the outcomes are not necessarily economic value outcomes, they are timing-related outcomes.

所以我還想強調的是，這兩個結果不一定是經濟價值結果，它們是與時間相關的結果。

So there's a time value money aspect of it, but the economic value of an F-35 that's delivered out of the system is not much affected, if you will, by these two issues, but the timing is affected.

因此，其中存在時間價值和金錢方面的問題，但是如果您願意的話，從系統中交付的 F-35 的經濟價值不會受到這兩個問題的太大影響，但時間會受到影響。

So let me just start with TR-3 software finalization.

那麼就讓我從 TR-3 軟體的最終確定開始。

So that's one of the conditions that we're managing through with the F-35 program and how that affects the delivery schedule.

這就是我們在 F-35 專案中應對的條件之一，以及它如何影響交付時間表。

So about 1.5 years ago, we had conversations, and I did personally about a Release 1 and a Release 2 concept.

大約 1.5 年前，我們進行了對話，我親自討論了 Release 1 和 Release 2 的概念。

The government calls that truncation, but that's really what the concept is like we would do.

政府稱之為截斷，但這確實是我們要做的概念。

And tech or telecom, we're going to do a release 1 of software.

對於科技或電信領域，我們將發佈軟體的第 1 版。

We're going to work through the discovery of that.

我們將努力發現這一點。

And then when that is ready, we will be able to have an initial product.

當一切準備就緒時，我們將能夠擁有初始產品。

And the initial product is TR-3, which is capable of doing unit standup, basing operations, and training at operating Air Force and Navy and Marine bases as well as our allies with the TR-3, I'll call it, again, Release 1 software in it.

最初的產品是 TR-3，它能夠在空軍、海軍和海軍陸戰隊基地以及我們的盟友使用 TR-3 進行部隊站立、基地作戰和訓練，我再次稱其為其中包含第 1 版軟體。

You can fly the jet, you can practice basic and advanced fighter maneuvers.

您可以駕駛噴射機，可以練習基本和高級的戰鬥機機動。

You can deal with -- develop tactics in your squadron and you can train your maintainers on how to do this new aircraft.

你可以在你的中隊中製定戰術，你可以訓練你的維修人員如何操作這架新飛機。

So if you're swapping out F-15 Squad and two F-35 Squad and the maintainers actually need to get their hands on the planes just as much as the pilots do.

因此，如果您要更換 F-15 中隊和兩支 F-35 中隊，維修人員實際上需要像飛行員一樣親自操作飛機。

And then make sure all the tooling and everything is working for them.

然後確保所有工具和一切都適合他們。

So Release 1 is what's being delivered now.

所以現在正在交付的是第 1 版。

That was the 48 in the third quarter.

那是第三節的48分。

They all have Release 1, you can fly the jet.

他們都有Release 1，你可以駕駛噴射機。

What it doesn't have are some of those incremental software validations that show that all combat systems and all weapons will be able to be effectively deployed because the testing program in flight test and bench test has been completed and we get a certification of reliability for that weapon, for example.

它沒有的是一些增量軟體驗證，這些驗證表明所有戰鬥系統和所有武器都能夠有效部署，因為飛行測試和台架測試中的測試計劃已經完成，並且我們獲得了可靠性認證例如，那個武器。

There are a lot of test points there.

那裡有很多測試點。

And those test points are going to be developed, not just in the fourth quarter, but they're going to be developed over the course of 2025 as well because when I say a weapon, is it an AMRAAM, is it an AIM-9, what weapon are we talking about?

這些測試點不僅會在第四季度開發，而且會在 2025 年期間開發，因為當我說武器時，它是 AMRAAM 還是 AIM-9 ，我們在談論什麼武器？

There's literally dozens of weapons and there are multiple test points on things like distributed systems, et cetera.

實際上有數十種武器，並且在分散式系統等方面有多個測試點。

So this is a complex path to what I'll call Release 2 that's the full up combat capability.

因此，這是通往我所說的第二版（完整戰鬥能力）的複雜途徑。

And as we work through those capability certifications individually, they'll be diminishing [cash] withholds along the way as those flight tests are completed and the certifications happen.

當我們單獨完成這些能力認證時，隨著這些飛行測試的完成和認證的發生，他們將逐漸減少[現金]扣留。

Jay can kind of aggregate that for you in a minute.

傑伊可以在一分鐘內為您匯總這些內容。

But that's how this part of the program works on a fundamental basis.

但這就是該程式這一部分的基本工作原理。

So we feel that our projection of in 2024, 90 to 110 deliveries out of that process and to Release 1.

因此，我們預計到 2024 年，該流程將交付 90 到 110 個版本並發佈到第 1 版。

In 2025 and beyond, a 180 deliveries a year of F-35.

2025 年及以後，每年交付 180 架 F-35。

Now those are going to be a mix of those coming off the line, brand new and those that are parked.

現在，這些將是下線的、全新的和停放的的混合。

So the 180s will be a mix of those.

所以 180 年代將是這些的混合體。

We're working on a weekly basis right now to prioritize specific aircraft deliveries, literally one at a time.

我們現在每週都會優先考慮特定飛機的交付，實際上是一次一架。

There's one go to the Dutch Air Force first and the Marine second.

首先是荷蘭空軍，其次是海軍陸戰隊。

And whenever we reprioritize what we're doing by the week based on the needs of the customer base, we need to change bill of materials.

每當我們根據客戶群的需求重新調整每週要做的事情時，我們就需要更改物料清單。

We'll do other things and parked aircraft may remain when a new aircraft may come right out to the fleet.

我們會做其他事情，當新飛機可能直接進入機隊時，停放的飛機可能會保留。

So the complexity of this TR-3 software definitization and release is going to take some time, but we will be able to deliver a mix of aircraft above the 156 production rate for the next few years because we'll be mixing based on what the customer is looking for.

因此，TR-3 軟體定義和發布的複雜性將需要一些時間，但我們將能夠在未來幾年內交付高於 156 架生產率的飛機組合，因為我們將根據客戶正在尋找。

So that's one of the issues that you talked about.

這就是您談到的問題之一。

The other issue is actually, I would consider it completely unrelated from this.

另一個問題實際上，我認為它與此完全無關。

And that issue is any lot negotiation for a program such as this and at the scale that this program is at.

這個問題是像這樣的項目以及該項目的規模的任何批次談判。

So we are on a lot of contractual negotiation with the US government.

因此，我們正在與美國政府進行大量合約談判。

And by we, I mean, our major suppliers with us and all the way down to our smaller suppliers.

我所說的「我們」是指我們的主要供應商，一直到我們的小型供應商。

Now currently, that Lot negotiation is 18 and 19, and it's not completed yet.

目前，該批次談判已進行到18號和19號，尚未完成。

And under the federal acquisition regulation, if the government does not have a formal agreement with the supplier completed, the government cannot pay for either work being done under that undefinitized contract.

根據聯邦採購法規，如果政府沒有與供應商簽訂正式協議，政府就無法支付根據未明確的合約完成的任何工作的費用。

In fact, it's not completed contract to be clear or pay for a product that is actually completed either.

事實上，明確或支付實際完成的產品也不是完整的合約。

So that is where we as an industry then have to prioritize keeping our production system on pace, while the government by law cannot pay us.

因此，作為一個行業，我們必須優先考慮保持我們的生產系統保持同步，而法律規定政府無法向我們支付工資。

So it's essential for the health of the lower tier suppliers that we do that.

因此，我們這樣做對於下層供應商的健康至關重要。

We all kind of step up and do it as an industry.

作為一個行業，我們都在努力做到這一點。

But the prime and major subs cannot book our revenue and profit even though we're expending cost.

但即使我們正在支出成本，主要和主要的潛艇也無法記錄我們的收入和利潤。

And that's where the cash impact of the negotiation comes in.

這就是談判的現金影響發揮作用的地方。

We're not going to stop the production line because it would be unwise, I'll say.

我想說，我們不會停止生產線，因為這是不明智的。

Until the formal agreement is signed, we are going to keep it going until the formal agreement is signed, at which time these cash payments will be releasable.

在正式協議簽署之前，我們將繼續進行下去，直到正式協議簽署為止，屆時這些現金付款將可以發放。

So those are the two issues we're facing.

這是我們面臨的兩個問題。

I want to say one of the things Doug, why you've asked about this topic of F-35, this isn't just a Lockheed Martin commitment to make this program a success.

我想說的一件事是，道格，為什麼你問起 F-35 這個主題，這不僅僅是洛克希德馬丁公司對使該計劃成功的承諾。

It's an industry wide commitment, and I would also add a government commitment to make it a success.

這是整個產業的承諾，我還要加上政府的承諾，以使其成功。

I'll just give you a few of the things that we've been part of and led over the last, I'd say, two, three months.

我只想向您介紹我們在過去兩三個月中參與並領導的一些事情。

We held a CEO Summit of the top five industry partners in Fort Worth at the factory where we took an entire day determining how we could integrate our systems, IT systems, test systems, our processes, how we develop subassemblies and other items that go on the jet and integrate them with the jet, those processes, and personnel, moving more people between companies on either a temporary or almost semipermanent basis to make sure we've got the best talent working on every problem.

我們在沃思堡工廠舉行了一次由前五名行業合作夥伴參加的首席執行官峰會，我們花了一整天的時間來確定如何整合我們的系統、IT 系統、測試系統、我們的流程、我們如何開發組件和其他項目並將它們與飛機、這些流程和人員整合起來，在公司之間臨時或幾乎半永久地調動更多的人員，以確保我們擁有最優秀的人才來解決每個問題。

So that's one thing that we've done.

這就是我們所做的一件事。

That same CEO level team followed up with the government and the meeting there was chaired by the Chief of Staff of the Air Force, the Joint Program Office Leader was there, General Schmidt, the US Navy and Marines had their air bosses there and that was in the Pentagon to lay out a similar integration framework with US government systems, processes and personnel that's appropriate under law and regulation.

同一個首席執行官級別的團隊與政府進行了跟進，會議由空軍參謀長主持，聯合項目辦公室負責人施密特將軍也在場，美國海軍和海軍陸戰隊的空軍上司也在場，那就是五角大樓制定了一個與美國政府系統、流程和人員類似的符合法律和法規的整合框架。

And then we add another CEO update with US senior government officials and this was just two weeks ago and seven partner nation customer officials in Washington to trade status of what we were all doing together.

然後我們又加入了與美國高級政府官員的執行長最新情況，就在兩週前，七名合作夥伴國家客戶官員在華盛頓交換了我們共同所做的事情的狀態。

And in two more weeks, I'm bringing my executive team at Lockheed Martin across all the businesses and functions.

再過兩週，我將帶領洛克希德·馬丁公司的執行團隊負責所有業務和職能部門。

We're going to gather in Fort Worth to make sure that every resource, every operational practice, every supply chain element that we can bring from across the company and certainly all the technical talent is devoted to this program.

我們將聚集在沃斯堡，以確保我們可以從整個公司帶來的每一項資源、每項營運實踐、每一項供應鏈要素，當然還有所有技術人才都致力於該計劃。

That is what we are doing to make sure this is a success.

這就是我們正在做的事情，以確保這次活動成功。

And the last thing I'll say there is that the customers need and want this aircraft.

我要說的最後一件事是客戶需要並且想要這架飛機。

That was the opinion of the US government in our meeting with the chief.

這是我們與總統會面時美國政府的看法。

There are six customers since 2020.

自2020年以來已有六家客戶。

I think these are all the competitions that we're in actually that chose the F-35 that weren't in the original partner group or the original order team.

我認為這些實際上是我們參加的所有競爭選擇了不在原始合作夥伴組或原始訂單團隊中的 F-35。

There were Switzerland, Finland, Germany, Canada, the Czech Republic, and Greece.

其中包括瑞士、芬蘭、德國、加拿大、捷克共和國和希臘。

And then follow-ons from partners that already have the aircraft in operation also were added Japan, Netherlands, Republic of Korea, and Israel.

隨後，已經投入營運該飛機的合作夥伴也加入了日本、荷蘭、韓國和以色列。

So the demand for the aircraft and actually essential need for the aircraft is there.

因此，對飛機的需求以及對飛機的實際基本需求是存在的。

Industry is getting together with the government, and I think in ways that we haven't done before to really make this a success.

工業界正在與政府合作，我認為以我們以前從未做過的方式才能真正取得成功。

And we've got to work our way through the Lot negotiation, which is, again, it's a timing issue as far as payments, and we got to work our way through TR-3 integration, which is a technical issue.

我們必須努力完成批次談判，這又是一個付款時間問題，我們必須努力完成 TR-3 集成，這是一個技術問題。

But literally, it's an all hands on deck, not just an industry, but I'd say in government too to get this all done.

但從字面上看，這需要所有人齊心協力，不僅僅是一個行業，我想說政府也需要齊心協力才能完成這一切。

Yeah.

是的。

Let me just add to that Doug, I'll try to give you a little bit of color on the cash impact to your question.

讓我補充一點，道格，我將盡力為您提供一些關於現金對您的問題的影響的資訊。

As Jim mentioned, what we're looking at here is an output estimate of about 180 aircraft deliveries per year over the next three-plus years.

正如吉姆所提到的，我們在這裡看到的是未來三年多每年交付約 180 架飛機的產量估計。

So effectively, what will happen is cash collections will smooth out over this period of time.

因此，實際上，這段時間內現金收款將會平穩。

This is important to point out that, that remains consistent with the low single-digit free cash flow growth framework that we've articulated today and previously.

需要指出的是，這與我們今天和先前闡述的低個位數自由現金流成長框架保持一致。

Just maybe a little bit on 2024, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we estimated the impact this year of unfavorable impact of about $600 million.

2024 年可能只是一點點，正如我在準備好的演講中提到的，我們估計今年的不利影響約為 6 億美元。

That consists of two factors.

這由兩個因素組成。

Number one, less deliveries than the 156 rate.

第一，交付量比 156 少。

So we'll deliver in that range of 100 aircraft or so.

因此，我們將交付 100 架左右的飛機。

So there's going to be less aircraft delivered and so there's an impact for cash flow from that.

因此，交付的飛機將會減少，進而對現金流產生影響。

The second impact is the impact of the withholds.

第二個影響是扣留的影響。

While we will release some of those withholds this year based on completion of milestones, there will still be some that carry over into next year and a little bit into 2026.

雖然我們今年將根據里程碑的完成情況釋放其中一些預扣稅，但仍有一些預扣稅將延續到明年，並稍微延續到 2026 年。

Now in 2024, that's unfavorable impact was $600 million, that was entirely offset by other working capital efficiencies in the rest of the portfolio of about $600 million, mostly through advances that we've seen there.

現在到 2024 年，不利影響為 6 億美元，這完全被投資組合其餘部分約 6 億美元的其他營運資本效率所抵消，主要是透過我們在那裡看到的進步。

And so the net impact and then what enabled us to deliver the same free cash flow and, in fact, better than the midpoint that we had originally guided to was that offset.

因此，淨影響以及使我們能夠提供相同自由現金流的因素，事實上，比我們最初指導的中點更好的是這種抵消。

As you go to 2025, will deliver more aircraft.

到 2025 年，將交付更多飛機。

And so we will see the benefit of having delivered more aircraft and we will also see the benefit of having incremental withholds released.

因此，我們將看到交付更多飛機的好處，我們也將看到釋放增量預扣稅的好處。

I would quantify that today at around $300 million to $400 million.

今天我將其量化為大約 3 億至 4 億美元。

And that will then continue to flow in 2016 and beyond.

這種情況將在 2016 年及以後繼續發生。

And hopefully, that helps.

希望這會有所幫助。

Rich Safran, Seaport Research Partners.

Rich Safran，海港研究合作夥伴。

Jay, on your opening remarks on pension, I think in the past, you made some comments about possibly reducing some out-year pension headwinds.

傑伊，在您關於退休金的開場白中，我認為您過去曾就可能減少一些年外退休金不利因素發表過一些評論。

So I want to know if you could maybe update us on what your thinking is there if you still intend to reduce the headwinds after 2025 using debt or cash?

所以我想知道，如果您仍然打算在 2025 年之後使用債務或現金來減少不利因素，您能否向我們介紹您的最新想法？

And if so, what the timing of that might be?

如果是的話，具體時間是什麼？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Rich.

謝謝，里奇。

Essentially, in my prepared remarks, I talked about the inorganic and organic means of managing this pension headwind.

本質上，在我準備好的發言中，我談到了管理退休金逆風的無機和有機方法。

The inorganic would essentially be the issuance of debt as a primary enabler to be able to do that.

無機本質上是發行債務作為實現這一目標的主要推動因素。

That's still on the table.

這仍然擺在桌面上。

As I said on my prepared remarks that we're going to go through between here and the end of the year and finalize our plans based on various factors.

正如我在準備好的演講中所說，我們將在今年年底之前進行研究，並根據各種因素最終確定我們的計劃。

And as you would expect, we're trying to exhaust all of the opportunities on an organic basis.

正如您所期望的，我們正在努力有機地利用所有機會。

So what can we bring out in working capital over this period of time to be able to offset as much as possible.

那麼這段時間我們可以拿出什麼營運資金來盡可能地抵銷呢？

To the extent that we can't, we do have the ability to go on financing to take out.

在我們做不到的範圍內，我們確實有能力繼續融資來開展業務。

I think the key takeaway there is that I remain confident that we'll be able to do that through the combination of organic working capital reduction as well as some level of inorganic mostly on the debt side.

我認為關鍵的一點是，我仍然有信心，我們將能夠透過減少有機營運資本和一定程度的無機營運資本（主要是債務方面）相結合來實現這一目標。

David Strauss, Barclays.

大衛‧史特勞斯，巴克萊銀行。

Just wanted to clarify on the longer-term framework relative to what you had said previously on 2025.

只是想澄清一下與您之前所說的 2025 年相關的長期框架。

I think you had talked about a 2025 growth in line with 2024, which is at 5%.

我想您曾談到 2025 年的成長率與 2024 年一致，即 5%。

So is that still the case or not?

那麼現在還是這樣嗎？

I know this is out through 2027.

我知道這會在 2027 年之前結束。

If you could just touch on that.

如果你能觸及這一點就好了。

And then Maybe, Jim if you could touch on progress on the solid rocket motor side of things in terms of how that's going?

然後，吉姆，您能否談談固體火箭發動機方面的進展？

Obviously, you announced this partnership with General Dynamics during the quarter as well.

顯然，您也在本季宣布了與通用動力公司的合作關係。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Just on the framework as it relates to 2025, 2025 is very consistent with the multiyear framework that's on that chart, which is our starting point here is a low single-digit growth framework off of the 2024 number.

就與 2025 年相關的框架而言，2025 年與該圖表上的多年框架非常一致，這是我們的起點，是 2024 年數字的低個位數成長框架。

And again, we're looking at MFC being the driver there, kind of starting off at a high single-digit rate.

再說一次，我們認為 MFC 是那裡的驅動力，一開始就以高個位數的速度開始。

And the other business areas being either flat, slightly flat or on up in the low single digits.

其他業務領域要麼持平、略有持平，要麼呈現低個位數成長。

And so that's really our starting point.

這確實是我們的起點。

Again, we'll give a lot more color in January as we finalize these plans.

同樣，當我們最終確定這些計劃時，我們將在一月份提供更多的色彩。

But I'd say '25 is consistent with what we're saying in the multiyear framework.

但我想說「25」與我們在多年框架中所說的一致。

I guess just a reminder, David, I think it applies to '25 as it does in the three-year framework.

我想只是提醒一下，大衛，我認為它適用於 25 年，就像在三年框架中一樣。

When we went to '24, we started at low single digit.

當我們進入 24 年時，我們的起始價是低個位數。

We upgraded it to mid-single digit.

我們將其升級至中個位數。

I think as our visibility improves, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, there's still the case where we could be mid-single digits in 2025, but we need to see it come through.

我認為，正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，隨著我們的能見度提高，我們仍然有可能在 2025 年達到中個位數，但我們需要看到它實現。

We need to see the production and operating systems be able to consistently grow at a mid-single-digit CAGR, which is a lot easier said than done in the environment that we've been living under over the past few years.

我們需要看到生產和作業系統能夠以中等個位數的複合年增長率持續成長，在我們過去幾年生活的環境中，這說起來容易做起來難。

And David, as far as the solid rocket motor industrial base, I think this is a really positive example of how industry does come together in the service of national security, right?

大衛，就固體火箭發動機工業基地而言，我認為這是工業如何聯合起來服務國家安全的一個非常積極的例子，對吧？

So first of all, I've just recirculated this question with our Chief Operating Officer, Frank St. John, who's outstanding on Northrop Grumman and Aerojet Rocketdyne, which is now managed by L3Harris.

首先，我剛剛向我們的營運長 Frank St. John 重複了這個問題，他在 Northrop Grumman 和 Aerojet Rocketdyne（現在由 L3Harris 管理）方面表現出色。

My question to Frank is, are these companies putting all the resources that we think they could be putting into their solid rocket motor operations, quality, delivery schedule, personnel, et cetera and open to us collaborating with them to make sure those deliveries happen?

我向弗蘭克提出的問題是，這些公司是否將我們認為他們可以投入的所有資源投入到固體火箭發動機運營、質量、交付時間表、人員等方面，並開放給我們與他們合作以確保這些交付的發生？

And his answer to me was yes.

他對我的回答是肯定的。

So our existing industry partners are stepping up to try to meet the elevated demand and investing to do that.

因此，我們現有的產業合作夥伴正在加緊努力，努力滿足不斷增長的需求，並為此進行投資。

So that's great.

那太好了。

But we still need a third source from, I think, an antifragility perspective as we call it.

但我認為，我們仍然需要第三個來源，即我們所謂的反脆弱性視角。

And that is a partnership with General Dynamics, and that started off at the CEO level, and we figured out there was complementary capabilities between General Dynamics and Lockheed Martin, where we could actually have the design done at Lockheed Martin for the SRM and the General Dynamics had the ability, the facilities, and the kind of production operations and personnel that could actually produce it.

這是與通用動力公司的合作夥伴關係，從執行長層面開始，我們發現通用動力公司和洛克希德馬丁公司之間存在互補的能力，我們實際上可以在洛克希德馬丁公司完成SRM 和通用動力系統的設計。

And so we are working together on that.

所以我們正在為此共同努力。

We'll have to get that new solid rocket motor certified.

我們必須讓新型固體火箭引擎獲得認證。

It will be, again, Lockheed Martin IP design, if you will, and General Dynamics is standing up simultaneously the ability to produce them at rate.

如果你願意的話，這將是洛克希德馬丁公司的 IP 設計，而通用動力公司同時也具備了快速生產它們的能力。

We have to do a few test articles next year in 2025.

明年2025年我們必須做一些測試文章。

There'll be further testing that's done by the services to get their certification, the military services in 2026 and should be producing at rate we hope by 2027.

各軍種將在 2026 年進行進一步測試以獲得認證，並應在 2027 年以我們希望的速度進行生產。

And that will add a third supplier for the national defense industrial base, not just for Lockheed Martin, but for others as well and really strengthen our ability to produce these systems.

這將為國防工業基地增加第三家供應商，不僅是洛克希德馬丁公司，也包括其他公司，並真正增強我們生產這些系統的能力。

Jason Gursky, Citi.

傑森古爾斯基，花旗銀行。

Jay, I just want to really, really pound the table -- not pound the table, beat a dead horse here, I should say and make sure I fully, fully understand the multiyear outlook here.

傑伊，我只是想真正、真正地敲桌子——不是敲桌子，打敗一個死馬，我應該說並確保我完全、完全理解這裡的多年前景。

So what you're saying is low single digits as the baseline you can outperform that into the mid-single digits.

所以你所說的是低個位數作為基線，你可以超越它進入中個位數。

So long as the supply chain and the production system kind of maybe performs as well as it did this year relative to expectations.

只要供應鏈和生產系統的表現可能與今年的預期一樣好。

What's the blue sky scenario here?

這裡的藍天場景是什麼樣的呢？

Let's say that the supply chain all steps back into place, the production system is working well.

假設供應鏈全部恢復正常，生產系統運作良好。

You are then in this context, producing mid-single-digit growth.

在這種背景下，您將實現中等個位數的成長。

But I would imagine that you've got a pipeline of additional opportunities out there.

但我想你會有一系列額外的機會。

Is there a blue sky scenario where you're actually doing better than mid-single digit?

是否存在一種藍天場景，即您實際上做得比中個位數更好？

It's a great question, Jason.

這是一個很好的問題，傑森。

Let me just first say terms in the framework.

讓我先說一下框架中的術語。

I mean, obviously, over 2025, there's better visibility than there would be for 2027.

我的意思是，顯然，到 2025 年，可見度會比 2027 年更好。

So the outlook feels good.

所以感覺前景不錯。

And so my comment in terms of confidence as far as the demand signal being able to drive to a mid-single digit growth rate in '25 is heightened by better visibility.

因此，我對需求訊號能夠在 25 年達到中個位數成長率的信心的評論因更好的可見性而得到增強。

If you think about what we've seen in over -- and I'll take '24 as an example in answer to your question, given what we've seen the demand cycle would have also enabled a higher growth rate than 5% in 2024.

如果你想想我們過去所看到的情況，我將以 24 年為例來回答你的問題，考慮到我們所看到的情況，需求週期也會使 2019 年的成長率高於 5%。 2024 年。

So I think the answer to your question in the short term is yes.

所以我認為你的問題在短期內的答案是肯定的。

I don't know that I could sit there and say that a multiyear framework would be a high single-digit number.

我不知道我是否可以坐在那裡說多年框架將是一個很高的個位數。

But I think that given all the right circumstances, you could definitely see a year that could deliver high single digit.

但我認為，在所有合適的情況下，你肯定會看到這一年能夠實現高個位數的成長。

But again, we're starting from low, we got to get to mid, we get to mid and then we can talk about anything beyond that, first things first.

但同樣，我們從低位開始，我們必須到達中位，我們到達中位，然後我們可以談論除此之外的任何事情，首先是第一件事。

Rob Stallard, Vertical Research.

羅布·斯塔拉德，垂直研究。

Jay, a question on the cash situation.

傑伊，關於現金狀況的問題。

Can you give us an idea of just how much working capital benefit you have to get through in the next couple of years to offset pension?

您能否告訴我們您在未來幾年內需要獲得多少營運資金福利才能抵銷退休金？

And just how risky is this prediction?

這個預測的風險有多大？

Well, Rob, the way I would characterize it is just quick math, one day equates to about $200 million of free cash flow.

好吧，羅布，我的描述方式只是簡單的數學計算，一天相當於大約 2 億美元的自由現金流。

And I would say through '25 and '26, we would have to do at least two days of working capital improvement.

我想說，在 25 年和 26 年期間，我們必須至少進行兩天的營運資本改善。

So is it possible?

那麼有可能嗎？

Yes, in both years, so you'd have to do cumulatively four days through '25 and '26.

是的，在這兩年中，您必須在 25 年和 26 年期間累積完成四天的活動。

It's possible, but it's a stretch.

這是可能的，但這是一個延伸。

And that's why I believe kind of a better, higher confidence plan would be to combine the initiatives on working capital with some of potential inorganic capabilities or cash generation with the ability to really draw that back down over a period of time with continued cash flow growth.

這就是為什麼我認為更好、更有信心的計劃是將營運資本舉措與一​​些潛在的無機能力或現金生成結合起來，並有能力在一段時間內通過持續的現金流增長真正將其收回。

And so I think it's -- what I would say next year is that we've probably got two days that are not yet solution between now and the end of the year that we got to go figure out.

所以我認為，明年我想說的是，從現在到年底，我們可能有兩天的時間還沒有找到解決方案，我們必須去弄清楚。

And to the extent that we can, that relates to 2025, the inorganic becomes the gap filler.

在我們能做到的範圍內，到 2025 年，無機物將成為間隙填充物。

All right.

好的。

Steve, this is Maria.

史蒂夫，這是瑪麗亞。

I think we've come to the top of the hour.

我想我們已經到了最關鍵的時刻。

So I'll turn it back over to Jim for some final thoughts.

所以我會把它轉回吉姆以獲得一些最後的想法。

Sure.

當然。

Thanks, Maria.

謝謝，瑪麗亞。

Look, I just want to recognize the employees across Lockheed Martin, their dedication, their resilience, and they consistently are innovating now in ways I think we never have and cooperated across businesses and functions before like we never have.

看，我只是想表彰洛克希德馬丁公司的員工，他們的奉獻精神，他們的韌性，他們現在一直在以我認為我們從未有過的方式進行創新，並以前所未有的方式進行跨業務和職能的合作。

So I want to really make sure that they're recognized this afternoon.

所以我想真正確保他們今天下午得到認可。

We want to make sure that our allies and our country can defend itself and therefore, deter any aggression against us, and that's what they think they're doing and what they are doing every day.

我們希望確保我們的盟友和我們的國家能夠保衛自己，從而阻止對我們的任何侵略，這就是他們認為自己正在做的事情，也是他們每天都在做的事情。

So I want to thank them and thank you for joining us all.

所以我要感謝他們，也感謝你們加入我們大家。

I look forward to connecting you again for our Q4 call in January.

我期待在 1 月的第四季度電話會議中再次與您聯繫。

So we'll see you then.

那我們到時候見。

Steve, that concludes the call for today.

史蒂夫，今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thanks, everybody.

謝謝大家。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference call for today.

女士們先生們，我們今天的電話會議到此結束。

On behalf of today's conference call, we'd like to thank you for your participation, and thank you for using AT&T.

我們謹代表今天的電話會議感謝您的參與，並感謝您使用 AT&T。

Have a wonderful day.

祝你有美好的一天。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。