洛克希德·馬丁 (LMT) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

洛克希德馬丁公司公佈了 2023 年第三季收益,銷售額年增 2%,達到 169 億美元,積壓訂單仍維持在 1.56 億美元的歷史高點。他們宣布將股息增加 0.15 美元,並將股票回購授權增加 60 億美元。

該公司重申了 2023 年全年財務展望,並提供了有關 F-35 計劃、國際合作夥伴關係以及 21 世紀安全技術進展的最新資訊。他們也提到了支持美國政府和平與安全努力的承諾。

該公司討論了 F-35 交付時間的不確定性以及對收入確認和盈利能力的潛在影響。他們還解決了機密飛彈計劃的挑戰以及 2024 年利潤率潛在的下行壓力。

該公司討論了他們對研發資本指導方針和即將到來的退休金收入變化的積極看法。他們提到了國防戰略中國際合作的重要性以及對擴大數位服務收入的關注。

該公司正在致力於為其供應鏈帶來反脆弱性並擴展其數位化能力。他們討論了國際業務的利潤狀況以及台灣 F-16 項目的工作。該公司的目標是創造價值並擴大業務。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and welcome, everyone, to the Lockheed Martin Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Results Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded.

    美好的一天,歡迎大家參加洛克希德馬丁公司 2023 年第三季獲利結果電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音。

  • At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Maria Ricciardone Lee, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在,我想將電話轉給投資人關係副總裁 Maria Ricciardone Lee 進行開場發言和介紹。請繼續。

  • Maria Ricciardone Lee - VP of IR

    Maria Ricciardone Lee - VP of IR

  • Thank you, Lois, and good morning. I'd like to welcome everyone to our third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. Joining me today on the call are Jim Taiclet, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jay Malave, our Chief Financial Officer. Statements made in today's call that are not historical fact are considered forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of federal securities laws.

    謝謝你,路易斯,早安。歡迎大家參加我們的 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有我們的董事長、總裁兼執行長 Jim Taiclet;和我們的財務長 Jay Malave。今天的電話會議中所做的非歷史事實的陳述被視為前瞻性陳述,並且是根據聯邦證券法的安全港條款做出的。

  • Actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Please see today's press release and our SEC filings for a description of some of the factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. We posted charts on our website today that we plan to address the call to supplement our comments. These charts also include information regarding non-GAAP measures that may be used in today's call. Please access our website at www.lockheedmartin.com and click on the Investor Relations link to view and follow the charts.

    實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中的預測有重大差異。請參閱今天的新聞稿和我們向 SEC 提交的文件,以了解可能導致實際結果與前瞻性聲明中的結果有重大差異的一些因素的描述。我們今天在網站上發布了圖表,我們計劃回應呼籲以補充我們的評論。這些圖表還包括有關今天電話會議中可能使用的非公認會計準則衡量標準的資訊。請造訪我們的網站 www.lockheedmartin.com 並點擊投資者關係連結查看並關注圖表。

  • With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Jim.

    說到這裡,我想把電話轉給吉姆。

  • James D. Taiclet - Chairman, President & CEO

    James D. Taiclet - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Thanks, Maria, and good morning, everyone. Thank you all for joining us on our third quarter 2023 earnings call. All of us on the line today are well aware that since our last call, the world is now seeing yet another terrible conflict. Everyone in our company remains dedicated to fully supporting the United States government's policy and efforts to deter aggression, restore security and achieve peace. Today, I will first highlight our third quarter results as we pursue our vision of 21st Century Security, designed to support the U.S. Department of Defense Strategy of Integrated deterrents and then I'll turn it over to Jay to provide additional detail before taking your questions.

    謝謝瑪麗亞,大家早安。感謝大家參加我們的 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天在線上的所有人都清楚地意識到,自上次通話以來,世界現在正在經歷另一場可怕的衝突。我們公司的每個人仍然致力於全力支持美國政府遏制侵略、恢復安全和實現和平的政策和努力。今天,我將首先強調我們第三季度的業績,因為我們追求21 世紀安全的願景,旨在支持美國國防部的綜合威懾戰略,然後我將在回答您的問題之前將其交給Jay 提供更多詳細資訊。

  • Starting on Page 3 of the slides. Sales increased 2% year-over-year to $16.9 billion and backlog remains at historically high levels at $156 million. EPS of $6.73 exceeded prior year and free cash flow was a strong $2.5 billion. We returned approximately 100% of free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases during the quarter.

    從投影片的第 3 頁開始。銷售額年增 2%,達到 169 億美元,積壓訂單仍維持在 1.56 億美元的歷史高點。每股盈餘超過前一年 6.73 美元,自由現金流高達 25 億美元。本季我們透過股利和股票回購將約 100% 的自由現金流返還給股東。

  • Earlier in October, we announced a $0.15 increase in our dividend which reflects 5% growth and is the 21st consecutive year of dividend increases for Lockheed Martin. At the same time, our Board also approved a $6 billion increase in our share repurchase authorization, bringing our total authorization to $13 billion, reconfirming our continued commitment to returning capital to shareholders.

    10 月初,我們宣布將股息增加 0.15 美元,增幅為 5%,這也是洛克希德馬丁連續 21 年增加股息。同時,我們的董事會也批准增加 60 億美元的股票回購授權,使我們的授權總額達到 130 億美元,再次確認了我們向股東返還資本的持續承諾。

  • We are also reaffirming our full year 2023 financial outlook for sales, profit, EPS and free cash flow. Given the current status of the 2024 U.S. Defense budget, global geopolitical tensions and the macroeconomic environment, we will provide our expectations for our 2024 financial outlook during our full year 2023 earnings call in January.

    我們也重申了 2023 年全年銷售、利潤、每股收益和自由現金流的財務前景。鑑於2024年美國國防預算的現狀、全球地緣政治緊張局勢和宏觀經濟環境,我們將在1月份的2023年全年財報電話會議上提供對2024年財務前景的預期。

  • On the U.S. budget, though the specific trajectory of the future U.S. Defense budget is still in process between the administration and Congress, the global threat landscape is increasingly elevated. Our robust backlog reflects the relevance and importance of the Lockheed Martin portfolio and elevating returns to great power conflict involving the United States and its allies and the solid positioning of our business to serve our domestic and international customers.

    在美國預算方面,儘管美國政府和國會仍在討論未來美國國防預算的具體軌跡,但全球威脅格局日益加劇。我們強勁的積壓訂單反映了洛克希德馬丁公司產品組合的相關性和重要性,以及提高涉及美國及其盟國的大國衝突回報的重要性,以及我們為國內和國際客戶提供服務的業務的穩固定位。

  • From a process standpoint and government, the current continuing resolution or CR is in place through November 17. At that point, one of the following could occur. FY '24 appropriations bills will be enacted, Congress will enact another partial or whole CR or there could be a partial or full government shutdown. In any of these scenarios, there continues to be the option also for supplemental requests related to support Ukraine, Israel and potentially Taiwan.

    從流程和政府的角度來看,目前的持續決議或 CR 將在 11 月 17 日之前到位。屆時,可能會發生以下情況之一。 24 財政年度撥款法案將頒布,國會將頒布另一項部分或全部 CR,否則政府可能部分或全部關閉。在任何一種情況下,仍然可以選擇提出與支持烏克蘭、以色列和可能的台灣相關的補充請求。

  • As Congress continues to work through the FY '24 appropriations bills, we are optimistic that there will be consistent support for the National Defense strategy and funding for its priorities. In the meantime, we will continue to work with our customers and suppliers to minimize any potential disruptions due to the process. And we will press on with executing our 21st Century security strategy of building capacity, efficiency and resilience into our production operations, driving advanced digital technologies to enhance integrated deterrents and expanding our international business and operations.

    隨著國會繼續通過 24 財年撥款法案,我們樂觀地認為,國防戰略將得到持續支持,並為其優先事項提供資金。同時,我們將繼續與客戶和供應商合作,盡量減少該流程造成的任何潛在幹擾。我們將繼續執行 21 世紀安全策略,增強生產營運的能力、效率和彈性,推動先進的數位技術增強綜合威懾力,並擴大我們的國際業務和營運。

  • Turning to the F-35 program. We delivered 30 F-35 aircraft in the third quarter, bringing the year-to-date total to 80 jets. Consistent with our announcement in September, we continue to expect to deliver a total of 97 aircraft this year, all in the Technology Refresh 2 or TR2 configuration. We are producing F-35s at a rate of [$156 billion] per year, and expect to continue at that pace while simultaneously working to finalize TR-3 software development testing.

    轉向 F-35 計劃。我們在第三季交付了 30 架 F-35 飛機,使年初至今的飛機總數達到 80 架。與我們 9 月宣布的一致,我們繼續預計今年將交付總共 97 架飛機,全部採用技術更新 2 或 TR2 配置。我們正以每年 [1,560 億美元] 的速度生產 F-35,並預計將繼續保持這一速度,同時努力完成 TR-3 軟體開發測試。

  • And we recently began flight test evaluations of the next software release that encompasses major systems upgrades such as improved RADAR, next-gen distributed aperture system and weapons capability. As previously announced, we continue to expect to deliver the first TR-3 configured aircraft between April and June of 2024. The superior technological capabilities of the F-35 continue to generate strong interest both domestically and internationally.

    我們最近開始對下一個軟體版本進行飛行測試評估,其中包括主要係統升級,例如改進的雷達、下一代分散式孔徑系統和武器能力。如同先前所宣布的,我們繼續預計在 2024 年 4 月至 6 月期間交付第一架 TR-3 配置的飛機。F-35 的卓越技術能力繼續引起國內外的強烈興趣。

  • In September, Denmark's first 4 locally based F-35 aircraft arrived on their home soil. Denmark's program of record calls for 27 F-35A aircraft. Also in September, the Czech Republic chose to become part of the global F-35 Lightning II program, and the U.S. State Department approved a possible $5 billion foreign military sale to South Korea for up to 25 F-35 Joint Strike Fighters.

    9 月,丹麥首批 4 架本地 F-35 飛機抵達本國。丹麥的創紀錄計畫需要 27 架 F-35A 飛機。同樣在 9 月,捷克共和國選擇成為全球 F-35 閃電 II 計畫的一部分,美國國務院批准了可能向韓國出售 50 億美元的對外軍售,購買最多 25 架 F-35 聯合攻擊戰鬥機。

  • Earlier in the quarter, Israel announced that we'll buy an additional 25 F-35s, which will add a third squadron and increased its F-35 fleet to 75 aircraft. Additionally, in August, Lockheed Martin was selected by the Australian Department of Defense, as their strategic partner for their AIR6500 program Phase 1. This transformational Pathfinder program will deliver the broadest scope of Joint All Domain Operations, or JADO in the free world, and will completely revolutionize the way the Australian defense force operates.

    本季早些時候,以色列宣布將額外購買 25 架 F-35,這將增加第三個中隊,並將其 F-35 機隊數量增加到 75 架。此外,8 月,洛克希德·馬丁公司被澳洲國防部選為其AIR6500 計畫第一階段的戰略合作夥伴。這項變革性探路者計畫將在自由世界提供最廣泛的聯合全局作戰(JADO) ,並將徹底改變澳洲國防軍的運作方式。

  • By connecting Australian systems and platforms that operate across air, space, land, sea and cyber domains, we expect that AIR6500 will set the blueprint for future military operations worldwide. This proven technology will provide greater situational awareness and defense against increasingly advanced air and missile threats and enables significantly greater interoperability between Australia and allied nations.

    透過連接澳洲在空中、太空、陸地、海洋和網路領域運作的系統和平台,我們預計 AIR6500 將為未來全球軍事行動制定藍圖。這項經過驗證的技術將提供更強的態勢感知和防禦能力,以應對日益先進的空中和飛彈威脅,並顯著提高澳洲與盟國之間的互通性。

  • Lockheed Martin will lead this first phase which will provide the core architecture and multi-domain integration for the program. This is just 1 recent win that demonstrates the business success of our 21st Century Security cornerstone, trusted and reliable battle management and command and control systems that integrate across multiple domains, military services and allied forces.

    洛克希德馬丁公司將領導第一階段,為該計劃提供核心架構和多域整合。這只是最近的一項勝利,展示了我們的 21 世紀安全基石、值得信賴且可靠的戰鬥管理以及跨多個領域、軍事部門和盟軍集成的指揮和控制系統的業務成功。

  • Late last year, Lockheed Martin also won the $500 million Defense of Guam award. And in late September, we were also awarded a potential 7-year, over $1 billion contract for systems engineering and software integration to the integrated combat system across the surface force portfolio of the U.S. Navy and Coast Guard. This will link together systems and software across the services and a JADO construct and it not only enables faster decision-making and better capabilities but also serves as a much more effective global deterrent strategy.

    去年年底,洛克希德馬丁公司還獲得了價值 5 億美元的關島防禦獎。 9 月底,我們還獲得了一份為期 7 年、價值超過 10 億美元的潛在合同,涉及美國海軍和海岸警衛隊水面部隊綜合作戰系統的系統工程和軟體整合。這將把跨服務和 JADO 結構的系統和軟體連接在一起,它不僅能夠實現更快的決策和更好的能力,而且還可以作為更有效的全球威懾策略。

  • Beyond these awards, we continue to develop 21st Century Security technologies to advance interoperability between Lockheed Martin product lines. The 5G.MIL hybrid base station that our engineers invented is the 1LM initiative that includes teams at MFC and Aeronautics. We recently transferred data from a sniper targeting pod that was set up in Orlando, Florida to the Tactical Missile Simulation Lab in Grand Prairie, Texas to provide real-time updates to a simulated missile inflate.

    除了這些獎項之外,我們還繼續開發 21 世紀安全技術,以提高洛克希德馬丁公司產品線之間的互通性。我們的工程師發明的 5G.MIL 混合基地台是 1LM 計劃,其中包括 MFC 和 Aeronautics 的團隊。我們最近將數據從佛羅裡達州奧蘭多設立的狙擊瞄準吊艙傳輸到德克薩斯州大草原城的戰術導彈模擬實驗室,以提供模擬導彈膨脹的即時更新。

  • This event significantly advanced efforts towards upcoming live fire demonstrations of cross domain platforms operating in a joint environment that will use data from multiple sources across an open architecture. Also, Skunk Works partnered with the University of Iowa's operator Performance Laboratory to demonstrate an AI commanded jamming capability.

    這項活動極大地推進了即將在聯合環境中運行的跨域平台的實彈演示,該平台將使用來自開放架構的多個來源的數據。此外,Skunk Works 還與愛荷華大學的營運商性能實驗室合作,展示了人工智慧指揮的干擾能力。

  • In this, we successfully used artificial intelligence on 2 air systems to provide jamming support to a simulated strike against enemy air defenses. This demonstration showed how AI agents with high performance and reliable behavior and operate in close coordination with and be controlled by human crude aircraft. We also conducted a successful test of the prototype radio for the PAC-3 MSE missile that will enable communications with the SPY-1 radar, the key sensor in the Aegis Weapon System. This test performed by a 1LM team across MFC and RMS paves the way for the design of a multifrequency radio data link for PAC-3 MSE.

    在此,我們成功地在兩個空中系統上使用人工智慧,為對敵方防空系統的模擬打擊提供幹擾支援。此次演示展示了具有高性能和可靠行為的人工智慧代理如何與人類原始飛機密切協調操作並受其控制。我們還對 PAC-3 MSE 飛彈的原型無線電進行了成功測試,該飛彈將能夠與宙斯盾武器系統中的關鍵感測器 SPY-1 雷達進行通訊。這項測試由 1LM 團隊在 MFC 和 RMS 上進行,為 PAC-3 MSE 的多頻無線電資料鏈路的設計鋪平了道路。

  • In turn, that will enable the U.S. Navy for the first time to have the ability to integrate the state-of-the-art PAC-3 missile onto its warships and open up another opportunity for Lockheed Martin in the future. International interest in PAC-3 also remains strong, as demonstrated by our deepening partnership with Poland, which signed a letter of offer and acceptance for 644 PAC-3 MSEs and related equipment in the quarter.

    反過來,這將使美國海軍首次有能力將最先進的 PAC-3 飛彈整合到其軍艦上,並為洛克希德馬丁的未來開闢另一個機會。國際上對 PAC-3 的興趣也依然濃厚,我們與波蘭深化合作夥伴關係就證明了這一點,波蘭在本季度簽署了 644 家 PAC-3 MSE 及相關設備的要約和接受函。

  • In our RMS business, Sikorsky CH-53K helicopter is expected to grow meaningfully also over the coming years. In August, we won a $2.7 billion contract to build and deliver 35 additional CH-53K helicopters and it's the largest procurement to date for this multi-mission aircraft. Another long-standing major Lockheed Martin program, this one is space is also poised for significant growth ramp.

    在我們的 RMS 業務中,西科斯基 CH-53K 直升機預計在未來幾年也將實現有意義的成長。 8 月份,我們贏得了價值 27 億美元的合同,將額外建造和交付 35 架 CH-53K 直升機,這是迄今為止該多任務飛機的最大一筆採購。洛克希德馬丁公司的另一個長期重大計劃是太空項目,也有望顯著成長。

  • In late September, the Fleet Ballistic Missile Program won a $1.2 billion contract for the Navy's Trident II D5 life extension. For nearly 7 decades, Lockheed Martin supported the U.S. Navy as a critical partner for its mission to provide sea-based strategic deterrents. The Trident II D5 LE missile will be in service through the 2040s, maintaining the proven performance of the D5 system for significantly less cost to the government than of designing a new missile.

    9月下旬,艦隊彈道飛彈項目贏得了價值12億美元的合同,為海軍的三叉戟II D5延長壽命。近 7 年來,洛克希德馬丁公司作為美國海軍的重要合作夥伴支持其提供海基戰略威懾的使命。三叉戟 II D5 LE 飛彈將服役到 2040 年代,保持 D5 系統經過驗證的性能,與設計新飛彈相比,政府的成本大大降低。

  • Also in our Space business, Lockheed Martin's next-generation interceptor, or NGI program, executed its digital preliminary design review in partnership with the Missile Defense Agency customer. That happened on September 29. During this review, the MDA assessed the NGI program's readiness and maturity to continue into the detailed design phase, confirming that our solution continues to meet the requirements for this crucial and demanding mission.

    同樣在我們的太空業務中,洛克希德馬丁公司的下一代攔截器(NGI)計劃與飛彈防禦局客戶合作執行了數位化初步設計審查。這件事發生在9 月29 日。在這次審查中,MDA 評估了NGI 項目的準備和成熟度,以繼續進入詳細設計階段,確認我們的解決方案繼續滿足這一關鍵而艱鉅的任務的要求。

  • Finally, the OSIRIS-REx sample return capsule touched down in the Utah Desert on September 24, returning NASA's first ever sample from an asteroid. After a 7-year mission traveling approximately, I believe, is 4 billion miles in space. The capsule holds material from Bennu a carbon-rich asteroid and scientists hope it will teach us more about the origins of organics that led to life on earth, plus the mechanics behind overall planet formation. After release of the capsule, the spacecraft was set on a new course to investigate the asteroid Apophis under the mission name OSIRIS-APEX.

    最後,OSIRIS-REx 樣本返回艙於 9 月 24 日在猶他州沙漠著陸,並帶回了 NASA 第一個小行星樣本。我相信,經過 7 年的任務,在太空中旅行了大約 40 億英里。太空艙中含有來自貝努(Bennu)一顆富含碳的小行星的物質,科學家希望它能讓我們更多地了解導致地球上生命的有機物的起源,以及整個行星形成背後的機制。太空艙釋放後,太空船被設定在新的航線上,以調查小行星阿波菲斯為任務,任務名稱為 OSIRIS-APEX。

  • So with that interesting and exciting news, I'll turn it over the call to Jay and join you later for questions. Jay?

    因此,有了這個有趣且令人興奮的消息,我會將電話轉給傑伊,並稍後與您一起回答問題。傑伊?

  • Jesus Malave - CFO

    Jesus Malave - CFO

  • Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Today, I will walk you through our third quarter 2023 financial results. I'll also provide an update to our full year 2023 guidance, and offer a few comments on 2024. As I describe our results, please follow along with the web charts we have posted with our earnings release today.

    謝謝吉姆,大家早安。今天,我將向您介紹我們 2023 年第三季的財務表現。我還將提供 2023 年全年指引的更新,並對 2024 年提出一些評論。在我描述我們的結果時,請關注我們今天發布的收益發布中的網絡圖表。

  • Starting on Chart 4, with consolidated sales and segment operating profit. Third quarter sales increased 2% year-over-year with 3 of the 4 business areas delivering growth. Segment operating profit was down 6% year-over-year due to lower net favorable profit adjustments and lower equity earnings, resulting in segment margins of 10.7%.

    從圖 4 開始,顯示了合併銷售額和部門營業利潤。第三季銷售額年增 2%,4 個業務領域中有 3 個成長。由於淨利潤調整減少和股本收益下降,部門營業利潤年減 6%,導致部門利潤率為 10.7%。

  • Moving to earnings per share on Chart 5. GAAP EPS was comparable year-over-year, with lower segment profit and higher net interest expense offset by favorable below-the-line items, including lower share count, lower tax rate and fewer mark-to-market losses. On an adjusted basis, EPS was down $0.10 year-over-year, primarily due to the lower profit.

    轉到圖5 上的每股盈餘。GAAP 每股盈餘與去年同期相當,部門利潤較低,淨利息支出較高,但被有利的線下項目所抵消,包括較低的股份數量、較低的稅率和較低的標記。上市損失。調整後的每股收益年減 0.10 美元,主要是由於利潤下降。

  • Moving to cash flow on Chart 6. Our free cash flow was strong at over $2.5 billion in the quarter or 150% of net income, helped in part by our focus on working capital, primarily due to better collections at the end of the government fiscal year. Once again, we demonstrated our commitment to shareholders by returning 99% of our free cash flow through dividends and share repurchases this quarter. On a year-to-date basis, we've returned almost $5.3 billion or 116% of free cash flow. As Jim mentioned, our Board approved a 5% increase to the quarterly dividend and an additional $6 billion in share repurchase authorization. These tools remain a key part of our total shareholder return strategy.

    轉向圖6 上的現金流。本季我們的自由現金流強勁,超過25 億美元,佔淨利潤的150%,這在一定程度上得益於我們對營運資本的關注,這主要是由於政府財政年底收款情況已改善年。本季我們透過股利和股票回購返還了 99% 的自由現金流,再次體現了我們對股東的承諾。今年迄今,我們已返還近 53 億美元,即自由現金流的 116%。正如 Jim 所提到的,我們的董事會批准了將季度股息增加 5% 以及額外 60 億美元的股票回購授權。這些工具仍然是我們股東總回報策略的關鍵部分。

  • Okay. Moving to segment results and starting with Aeronautics on Chart 7. Third quarter sales at Aero decreased 5% driven by lower volume on F-35, partially offset by higher volume at Skunk Works. F-35 production was down due to the previously mentioned Lot 15-17 sales catch up in the third quarter of 2022, and an overall more linear throughput this year. Both development and sustainment saw solid year-over-year growth in the quarter. Operating profit decreased 12% from the prior year due to the lower volume and lower net profit adjustments.

    好的。轉到分部業績,首先從圖 7 上的航空部門開始。由於 F-35 銷量下降,Aero 第三季度銷售額下降了 5%,但被 Skunk Works 銷量增加部分抵消。 F-35 產量下降是由於前面提到的 2022 年第三季第 15-17 批銷售量的趕上以及今年整體吞吐量的線性成長。本季度的開發和維護業務均實現了同比穩健增長。由於銷量下降和淨利潤調整減少,營業利潤較上年下降 12%。

  • On the F-16 program, international interest remains strong. We delivered the second Block 70 aircraft to Bahrain in July and in September, the first Block 70 aircraft for the Slovak Republic was unveiled at our facility in Greenville, South Carolina. The Slovak Republic will be the first European country to receive this newest and most capable version of the fighting. Today's latest version, the Block 70-72 will be flown by 6 countries and counting. With a backlog of 126 aircraft as of the third quarter, the F-16 program continues to play a crucial role in 21st Century Security missions for international allies. It will be a key contributor to growth over the coming years.

    國際社會對 F-16 計畫的興趣依然濃厚。我們於 7 月向巴林交付了第二架 Block 70 飛機,9 月,為斯洛伐克共和國交付的第一架 Block 70 飛機在我們位於南卡羅來納州格林維爾的工廠揭幕。斯洛伐克共和國將成為第一個接收這種最新、最強大的戰鬥版本的歐洲國家。今天的最新版本 Block 70-72 將在 6 個國家/地區飛行,而且這一數字還在增加。截至第三季度,F-16 計畫已積壓 126 架飛機,繼續在國際盟國的 21 世紀安全任務中發揮關鍵作用。它將成為未來幾年成長的關鍵貢獻者。

  • Shifting to Missiles and Fire Control on Page 8. Sales increased 4% year-over-year driven by higher sales volumes on munitions programs within Tactical Strike Missiles, partially offset by lower volume within integrated air and missile defense. Segment operating profit also increased 4% year-over-year due to the higher net profit adjustments. Margins were comparable at 13.5%. MSC has built a strong backlog, and we continue to see strong demand for our missiles and munitions with allied nations seeking to improve the security posture amidst today's complex threat environment. This backlog provides a foundation for growth over the coming years across several of our product lines, including PAC-3, GMLRS, HIMARS, Javelin and JASSM and LRASM.

    轉向第 8 頁的飛彈和火控。由於戰術打擊飛彈中彈藥項目銷量的增加,銷量年增了 4%,但綜合防空和飛彈防禦系統中銷量的下降部分抵消了這一影響。由於淨利調整幅度較大,分部營業利潤也較去年同期成長 4%。利潤率為 13.5%。 MSC 已經積壓了大量訂單,我們繼續看到盟國對我們的飛彈和彈藥的強勁需求,這些國家尋求在當今複雜的威脅環境中改善安全態勢。這些積壓訂單為未來幾年我們多個產品線的成長奠定了基礎,包括 PAC-3、GMLRS、HIMARS、Javelin 以及 JASSM 和 LRASM。

  • Turning to Rotary and Mission Systems on Page 9. Sales were up 9% in the quarter, driven by higher volume across a handful of programs within our integrated warfare systems and sensors and C6ISR lines of business. Operating profit increased 2% due to higher sales volume and was partially offset by lower net profit adjustments.

    轉向第 9 頁的 Rotary 和任務系統。本季銷售額成長了 9%,這得益於我們的綜合戰爭系統和感測器以及 C6ISR 業務線中少數項目的銷量增加。由於銷量增加,營業利潤增加了 2%,但被淨利潤調整減少所部分抵消。

  • RMS backlog increased in the quarter, primarily due to the $2.7 billion CH-53K award, which is pictured for Lot 7 and 8, the first full rate production lots as part of the U.S. Marine Corps 200 aircraft program of record. This significant contract bolsters Sikorsky and its partners creates additional production efficiencies and provides the U.S. Marine Corps with transformative capabilities.

    本季RMS 積壓訂單增加,主要是由於價值27 億美元的CH-53K 合約授予(圖中為第7 批和第8 批),這是美國海軍陸戰隊200 飛機記錄項目的第一批全速生產批次。這份重要合約增強了西科斯基及其合作夥伴的生產效率,並為美國海軍陸戰隊提供了變革能力。

  • On Chart 10, we continue to see strong growth across our space portfolio with sales increasing 8% year-over-year driven by higher volume on NGI, Fleet Ballistic Missile, GPS and Orion programs. Operating profit decreased 15%, as the benefit from higher sales volume was more than offset by lower net profit adjustments and lower equity earnings from United Launch Alliance.

    在圖 10 中,我們繼續看到我們的太空產品組合強勁增長,在 NGI、艦隊彈道導彈、GPS 和獵戶座計劃銷量增加的推動下,銷售額同比增長 8%。營業利潤下降 15%,銷售增加帶來的收益被淨利潤調整減少和 United Launch Alliance 股本收益減少所抵銷。

  • Space backlog grew slightly to over $30 billion at the end of the third quarter helped by the $800 million Transport Layer Tranche 2 award for 36 beta satellites. Transport Layer is part of the proliferated space architecture and will strengthen deterrents with more resilient space architectures for beyond line of sight targeting, data transport and advanced missile detection and tracking. With this award, we will build and deliver a total of 88 data communication satellites to the Space Development Agency in support of their low-earth orbit constellations.

    由於 36 顆測試衛星的 8 億美元傳輸層第 2 期合同,第三季末太空積壓訂單略有增長,超過 300 億美元。傳輸層是激增的太空架構的一部分,將透過更具彈性的太空架構來增強威懾力,以實現超視距瞄準、數據傳輸以及先進的飛彈探測和追蹤。憑藉該合約,我們將向太空發展局建造並交付總共 88 顆數據通訊衛星,以支援其近地軌道星座。

  • Okay. Now shifting to our 2023 expectations on Page 11. For the full year, we're holding the outlook for sales, segment operating profit, earnings per share and free cash flow. We've successfully driven and delivered more linear results in 2023 than prior years, which enables more efficient use of our capacity, but sets up for a difficult compares to last year's fourth quarter.

    好的。現在轉向第 11 頁的 2023 年預期。對於全年,我們維持銷售、部門營業利潤、每股收益和自由現金流的預期。我們在 2023 年成功推動並交付了比往年更線性的結果,這使得我們能夠更有效地利用我們的產能,但與去年第四季相比,情況會很困難。

  • In conjunction with our recent announcement of increased share repurchase authorization, we're increasing our share repurchase forecast for 2023 to $6 billion, provided there is not an extended shutdown scenario. These repurchases along with dividends, are expected to return nearly 150% of our free cash flow to shareholders for the year. And between 2022 and 2023, we are on track to repurchase nearly 13% of our current market cap. We're also set to deliver mid-single-digit free cash flow per share growth in 2023, and we're positioning the company to continue that level of growth in the future.

    結合我們最近宣布增加股票回購授權,我們將 2023 年的股票回購預測提高到 60 億美元,前提是不存在長期停工的情況。這些回購連同股息預計將在今年向股東返還近 150% 的自由現金流。 2022 年至 2023 年間,我們可望回購目前市值的近 13%。我們還計劃在 2023 年實現每股中個位數自由現金流成長,並且我們預計公司未來將繼續保持這一成長水準。

  • Okay. A few comments on 2024. While we don't have a formal outlook to share, I'll provide a few directional markers as we see them today, barring any environmental setbacks. We still anticipate low single-digit sales growth as we convert our strong backlog position. As I previously mentioned, the backlog supports a higher growth rate, but the value chain remains constrained by extended lead times that have yet to compress.

    好的。關於 2024 年的一些評論。雖然我們沒有正式的展望可供分享,但我將提供一些我們今天看到的方向標記,除非出現任何環境挫折。隨著我們轉變強勁的積壓狀況,我們仍然預期銷售額將出現較低的個位數成長。正如我之前提到的,積壓訂單支援更高的成長率,但價值鏈仍然受到尚未壓縮的延長交貨時間的限制。

  • On segment margins, we expect the underlying business to be relatively flat year-over-year, but anticipate variability caused by the timing of impacts from the MFC classified program. And our free cash flow, we're following the budget process to determine whether it will have an impact on the timing of our program schedules and milestones, but are continuing to set internal targets that deliver mid-single-digit growth in free cash flow per share.

    在分部利潤率方面,我們預期基礎業務將比去年同期相對持平,但預計 MFC 分類計畫影響的時間會造成變動。至於我們的自由現金流,我們正在遵循預算流程,以確定它是否會對我們的計劃時間表和里程碑的時間產生影響,但我們將繼續設定內部目標,以實現自由現金流中個位數的增長每股。

  • Okay. Let's wrap it up. Results through the first 3 quarters have been solid with a long-term demand environment that is favorable to Lockheed Martin's 21st Century Security capabilities. Our focus on linearity and working capital is helping to drive more consistent sales and improved cash flow. We're maintaining our full year outlook while increasing our planned share repurchases, further demonstrating our commitment to shareholder returns. And finally, we're executing our 21st Century Security strategy through improving capacity and resilience in the defense enterprise, accelerating the adoption and insertion of 21st Century digital technologies, and collaborating more closely with international partners and allies to improve security solutions.

    好的。讓我們總結一下。前三個季度的業績表現穩健,長期需求環境有利於洛克希德馬丁的 21 世紀安全能力。我們對線性和營運資本的關注有助於推動更穩定的銷售和改善現金流。我們維持全年展望,同時增加計畫的股票回購,進一步體現了我們對股東回報的承諾。最後,我們正在透過提高國防企業的能力和彈性、加速 21 世紀數位技術的採用和插入以及與國際合作夥伴和盟友更密切地合作來改進安全解決方案來執行 21 世紀安全戰略。

  • With that, Lois, let's open up the call for Q&A.

    路易斯,讓我們開始問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from the line of Doug Harned from Bernstein.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題將來自 Bernstein 的 Doug Harned。

  • Douglas Stuart Harned - SVP and Senior Analyst

    Douglas Stuart Harned - SVP and Senior Analyst

  • I wanted to see if -- just could I understand the F-35 situation a little bit more. Now the TR-3 deliveries of F-35, those are now expected at some point in Q2 next year. But I think it's difficult for us to have total confidence in that timing.

    我想看看我是否可以更多地了解 F-35 的情況。現在 F-35 的 TR-3 交付預計在明年第二季的某個時候交付。但我認為我們很難對這個時機完全有信心。

  • And what I'm trying to understand is as you continue to produce F-35, which will need software upgrades before delivery, you're recognizing revenues on percent completion, so revenue should continue to be solid. But when you look at, say, a June delivery date, what's the impact on your production recognition of revenues, earnings and cash flow should that date move around, how should we think about the timing here?

    我想了解的是,當您繼續生產 F-35(在交付前需要進行軟體升級)時,您會根據完成百分比確認收入,因此收入應該會繼續保持穩定。但是,當您考慮六月的交貨日期時,如果該日期發生變化,會對您的收入、收益和現金流量的生產確認產生什麼影響,我們應該如何考慮這裡的時間安排?

  • Jesus Malave - CFO

    Jesus Malave - CFO

  • So Doug, the timing on sales and the profits associated with the sales, the booking margin, I really shouldn't expect much variability with that. As we've mentioned, that really doesn't get impacted. What you could see and what we are seeing today is that our risk retirements are obviously dependent upon complete -- successful completion of the test program.

    因此,道格,銷售時機以及與銷售相關的利潤,預訂利潤,我真的不應該期望有太大的變化。正如我們所提到的,這確實沒有受到影響。您可以看到,我們今天看到的是,我們的風險退出顯然取決於測試計劃的完整成功完成。

  • And so that will -- could limit our ability to take profit adjustments on a Lot 15-17 program. But as I've said in the past, we are performing and expect to continue to perform profitability stronger on 5 Lot 15-17 than we did on Lot 12-14. And so we might see some short-term limitations on our ability to take profit rate adjustments, we still expect and have confidence will drive higher profitability on this contract locked in the prior one.

    因此,這可能會限制我們對 Lot 15-17 專案進行利潤調整的能力。但正如我過去所說,我們在 15-17 號 5 號批次上的表現並預計將繼續實現比 12-14 號批次更強的盈利能力。因此,我們可能會看到我們進行利潤率調整的能力受到一些短期限制,我們仍然預計並有信心將推動鎖定在前一份合約中的這份合約的更高盈利能力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question is from the line of Cai von Rumohr from TD Cowen.

    下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Cai von Rumohr。

  • Cai von Rumohr - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Cai von Rumohr - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Yes. So Jay, I think recently, you made a comment about gravity on margins, and you haven't provided a guide for '24. But I think one of the issues that kind of you mentioned has been the classified missile program at MFC, where you have some LRIP options coming up. Could you maybe give us some color in terms of the status of that and how that impacts -- could impact next year? And any other items we should be watchful of that might exert gravity on margins?

    是的。所以傑伊,我想最近你對邊際引力發表了評論,但你還沒有提供 24 週年的指南。但我認為你提到的問題之一是 MFC 的機密飛彈計劃,其中有一些 LRIP 選項即將出現。您能否給我們一些關於該問題的現狀以及它如何影響——明年可能產生的影響的資訊?還有其他我們應該注意的可能對利潤產生影響的項目嗎?

  • Jesus Malave - CFO

    Jesus Malave - CFO

  • Sure, Cai. Thanks. So yes, I mean, that's the question we've talked about. It's been a headwind. It's something that we've talked about for the upcoming number of years, including next year. And in fact, we are seeing some of the headwind this year, and it really -- it's dependent upon an analysis really the timing of recognition of these losses.

    當然,蔡。謝謝。所以是的,我的意思是,這就是我們討論過的問題。這是一個逆風。這是我們在未來幾年(包括明年)都會討論的事情。事實上,我們今年看到了一些逆風,這實際上取決於對這些損失的確認時機的分析。

  • And there are certain things that need to be met from a performance standpoint on the program. And then it becomes an assessment on the probability of an option being exercised. And so there's just variability in that timing. It could be as early as, frankly, as this quarter, or into next quarter. What we could find ourselves in a situation is that we're recording multiple lots in 2024, which would put some downward pressure on next year's margins.

    從程式效能的角度來看,有些事情需要滿足。然後它就變成了對期權被執行機率的評估。所以這個時間只是有變化。坦白說,最早可能是本季度,也可能是下個季度。我們可能會發現自己面臨的情況是,我們將在 2024 年記錄多個批次,這將對明年的利潤率帶來一些下行壓力。

  • So we'll have a better feel for that next year, and it could be in the range of anywhere between 25 to 50 basis points of headwind from where we are and where we end today or this year from a margin perspective. So hopefully, that provides a little bit of color on the impact of that program. Is that as far as any others, look, we -- if you look at this year, we had lower profit adjustments this year. We expect there to be in the low 20s in 2023. We're evaluating what that means for 2024 in general. But again, I think, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we're expecting the underlying business to be pretty much flattish, which would include recurring margins as well as profit rate adjustments in 2024.

    因此,我們明年對此會有更好的感覺,從利潤率角度來看,與我們目前的情況以及我們今天或今年的最終結果相比,它可能會出現 25 至 50 個基點的逆風。希望這能為計劃的影響提供一點色彩。就其他任何人而言,看看,我們 - 如果你看看今年,我們今年的利潤調整較低。我們預計 2023 年這一數字將在 20 左右。我們正在評估這對 2024 年意味著什麼。但我再次認為,正如我在準備好的演講中提到的那樣,我們預計基礎業務將基本持平,其中包括 2024 年的經常性利潤率和利潤率調整。

  • James D. Taiclet - Chairman, President & CEO

    James D. Taiclet - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Yes. And Cai, it's Jim. Just to add on the classified program. First of all, given my Air Force pilot experience, I can tell you that this is a really important capability for the country. It should continue on as an important capability for many, many years and even decades, assuming the program is successful, which we think we're on track to be and it will be massively NPV positive over that longer time frame. So we're working our way through the schedule and the performance in the early phases of the contract, but at the end of the day, it will be worth it for the country and the company. But we will keep you all updated as Jay just did on the path to get there.

    是的。蔡,是吉姆。只是添加分類程序。首先,根據我的空軍飛行員經驗,我可以告訴你,這對國家來說是一項非常重要的能力。假設該計劃成功的話,它應該作為一項重要能力繼續存在很多年甚至幾十年,我們認為我們正在朝著這個目標邁進,並且在更長的時間內它將實現巨大的淨現值(NPV)正數。因此,我們正在合約早期階段的時間表和績效方面努力工作,但最終,這對國家和公司來說都是值得的。但我們會向大家通報最新情況,就像傑伊剛剛在到達那裡的路上所做的那樣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question is from the line of Kristine Liwag from Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Kristine Liwag。

  • Kristine Liwag - Executive Director, Head of Aerospace & Defense Equity Research and Equity Analyst

    Kristine Liwag - Executive Director, Head of Aerospace & Defense Equity Research and Equity Analyst

  • So maybe an F-35 question. We've seen a lot of new countries express interest in the F-35 and current partners like Israel, have indicated plans to add to existing orders. What are your thoughts on expanding capacity to meet all the international demand? And is there demand from the customers to potentially bring forward their deliveries? And should you increase capacity, what level of investments?

    所以也許是 F-35 問題。我們看到許多新國家對 F-35 表達了興趣,以色列等現有合作夥伴也表示計劃增加現有訂單。您對擴大產能以滿足所有國際需求有何看法?顧客是否有要求提前交貨的需求?如果您應該增加產能,投資水準是多少?

  • James D. Taiclet - Chairman, President & CEO

    James D. Taiclet - Chairman, President & CEO

  • So Kristine, it's Jim. I'll start off and Jay can maybe speak to the required investment level. We're in sync with our joint program office customer, which represents the international cohort indirectly of the F-35 customer base and directly the U.S. services. We've all settled on the [$156 billion] per year rate as the joint investment that we're all willing to make, given the demand that's out there. There is the annual sort of slotting priorities discussion that happens within the joint program office and the international partners, and that will keep the line full for many, many years.

    克里斯汀,是吉姆。我先開始,傑伊或許可以談談所需的投資水準。我們與聯合專案辦公室客戶保持同步,該客戶間接代表 F-35 客戶群的國際群體,並直接代表美國服務部門。考慮到現有的需求,我們都同意每年 [1560 億美元] 作為我們都願意進行的聯合投資。聯合專案辦公室和國際合作夥伴每年都會進行時間安排優先事項討論,這將使線路在許多年裡保持滿員狀態。

  • If we were to get significantly more international orders that might motivate us jointly, and I mean us meaning the government and industry, including our suppliers, by the way to make an incremental investment. But I think that, that would have to be a significant increase in the order book above what we see today. So Jay, any other color on that.

    如果我們要獲得更多的國際訂單,這可能會共同激勵我們,我的意思是我們意味著政府和產業,包括我們的供應商,順便進行增量投資。但我認為,訂單簿的數量必須比我們今天看到的數量顯著增加。傑伊,還有其他顏色嗎?

  • Jesus Malave - CFO

    Jesus Malave - CFO

  • Yes. I mean, the investments, it's probably in the low hundreds of millions. It's manageable. But again, to Jim's point, it needs to be coordinated with the customer.

    是的。我的意思是,投資可能只有數億。這是可以管理的。但吉姆認為,這需要與客戶協調。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of George Shapiro from Shapiro Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自夏皮羅研究中心的喬治‧夏皮羅。

  • George D. Shapiro - CEO and Managing Partner

    George D. Shapiro - CEO and Managing Partner

  • Yes. Jay, on the F-35, can you discuss a little bit where we stood in the quarter in terms of sustainment revenue versus production because the decremental margin on the production was pretty high at 22%? And I'll sneak in one other one, which isn't RMS, the implication is that you'd have a 14% margin in Q4 to meet your guide, yet revenues would be relatively flat. So if you can just kind of tell us what's going on to cause that to occur.

    是的。 Jay,關於 F-35,您能否討論一下我們本季在維持營收與產量方面的情況,因為產量的遞減利潤率相當高,達到 22%?我會偷偷地介紹另一項,這不是 RMS,這意味著您在第四季度將有 14% 的利潤來滿足您的指南,但收入將相對持平。因此,您能否告訴我們是什麼原因導致這種情況發生。

  • Jesus Malave - CFO

    Jesus Malave - CFO

  • Okay. I'll start with the second one first on RMS margins and then come back on the F-35. On the margins for RMS, you're right, George, we're expecting an increase in profitability there. It's really a twofold function of higher profit adjustments. And there are -- and I think I've talked about this in the past, we do have some mix benefits through some delivery -- program deliveries here in the fourth quarter, which will give them some lift.

    好的。我將從第二個開始,先討論 RMS 裕度,然後再討論 F-35。關於 RMS 的利潤率,你是對的,喬治,我們預計那裡的獲利能力會增加。這實際上是更高利潤調整的雙重功能。我想我過去已經討論過這一點,我們確實通過一些交付獲得了一些混合效益——第四季度的計劃交付,這將為他們帶來一些提升。

  • As far as the F-35, just really from a sales perspective in the quarter, production was down pretty substantially, really close to 20%. Development was up quite substantially and sustainment was up in the high teens. So with solid there on sustainment, that's been strong all year long. We expect that to grow for the year around 10%.

    就 F-35 而言,從本季的銷售角度來看,產量大幅下降,接近 20%。開發率大幅提高,維持率也達到了十幾歲。因此,由於維持穩定,全年表現強勁。我們預計今年將成長 10% 左右。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question is from the line of Ron Epstein. One moment, please.

    我們的下一個問題來自羅恩愛潑斯坦。稍等一會兒。

  • James D. Taiclet - Chairman, President & CEO

    James D. Taiclet - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Lois, are you still there?

    路易斯,你還在嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Yes. One moment. We're opening his line. I'm sorry, the next person that we will go to is David Strauss from Barclays.

    是的。一會兒。我們正在開通他的線路。抱歉,我們下一個要找的人是巴克萊銀行的大衛‧史特勞斯。

  • David Egon Strauss - Research Analyst

    David Egon Strauss - Research Analyst

  • Jay, I think the IRS came up with some recent updated guidance around Section 174. I want to see what your interpretation of that was, whether it's supported your position or your peers that are taking, I think, higher levels of -- or a higher associated with Section 174. And then any updated thoughts on where pension might come out for you guys next year given what appears to be much higher discount rates and weak asset returns?

    傑伊,我認為國稅局最近針對第174 條提出了一些更新的指導意見。我想看看您對此的解釋是什麼,它是否支持您的立場或您的同行,我認為,他們正在採取更高水準的措施,或與第 174 條相關的更高。然後,鑑於貼現率似乎更高且資產回報率較低,對於明年你們的退休金可能會在哪裡發放,有什麼最新的想法嗎?

  • Jesus Malave - CFO

    Jesus Malave - CFO

  • Sure. Thank you, David. The first one on the R&D capitalization, the draft guidelines that came out. We view those as promising. We believe that they support our position of continuing to deduct the costs associated with cost plus contracts. And just as you remember, we treat that and view it as a cost of sale, not really as an R&D activity. The risk is really borne by the acquirer of those services. The rights are short-lived and they're also restricted. And so we believe the draft language is, at least thus far, appears to be consistent with our approach.

    當然。謝謝你,大衛。第一篇關於研發資本化的指引草案已經推出。我們認為這些都是有希望的。我們相信他們支持我們繼續扣除與成本加成合約相關的成本的立場。正如您所記得的那樣,我們將其視為銷售成本,而不是真正的研發活動。風險實際上由這些服務的獲取方承擔。這些權利是短暫的,也受到限制。因此,我們認為,至少到目前為止,草案措辭似乎與我們的方法一致。

  • And so we view it positively. As far as pension, a couple of things going on with pension I'll go on the P&L. FAS pension will see a significant reduction next year. We're going to go from about $375 million of income in '23 to about $50 million of loss in 2024. It's a function of 2 things. One is the returns.

    所以我們積極看待它。至於退休金,我將在損益表中介紹一些與退休金有關的事情。明年FAS退休金將大幅減少。我們的收入將從 23 年的約 3.75 億美元減少到 2024 年的約 5,000 萬美元的損失。這是由兩件事決定的。一是回報。

  • And the second is essentially the expiration of benefits that we're amortizing since -- from the 2014 salary plan freeze. And so those run out, and so we'll see a significant increase. As you know, that's pretty much noncash, but it will affect EPS. On the CAS side of it, we'll see a little bit of a slight reduction anywhere between $25 million to $50 million reduction.

    第二個本質上是我們自 2014 年年薪資計畫凍結以來攤提的福利到期。所以這些都用完了,所以我們會看到顯著的增加。如您所知,這幾乎是非現金,但會影響每股收益。在 CAS 方面,我們會看到稍微減少 2500 萬美元到 5000 萬美元之間。

  • But again, the biggest piece there is on FAS. From a cash contributions, we talked about anywhere between $500 million to $1 billion of contributions required starting in 2025. Right now, given where things are, we would expect that to be in the higher range, if not higher for 2025. And if we stay where we are, it could trigger some contributions in 2024.

    但同樣,最大的部分是 FAS。從現金捐款來看,我們討論了從2025 年開始所需的5 億至10 億美元捐款。目前,考慮到目前的情況,我們預計2025 年的捐款數額即使不是更高,也將在更高的範圍內。如果我們維持現狀,可能會在 2024 年引發一些捐款。

  • But I will say, when you think about cash contribution to pension and what that means, we've got an enviable position in our balance sheet. We've demonstrated that we're willing to use it. And so I wouldn't view that higher pension contributions as limiting, otherwise limiting our ability to continue our cash deployment strategies, and that's the key point.

    但我要說的是,當你考慮到退休金的現金繳款及其意味著什麼時,我們在資產負債表中的地位令人羨慕。我們已經證明我們願意使用它。因此,我不認為更高的退休金繳款是限制性的,否則會限制我們繼續現金部署策略的能力,這是關鍵點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from the line of Ken Herbert from RBC Capital Markets.

    下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的肯‧赫伯特 (Ken Herbert)。

  • Kenneth George Herbert - Analyst

    Kenneth George Herbert - Analyst

  • Maybe, Jay, just to follow up on a comment you made in the prepared remarks. I think you made a comment around the buyback activity in the fourth quarter sort of dependent upon timing of the fiscal '24 budget and whether or not there is a shutdown potentially. Can you just talk about how you're thinking about the timing of the '24 budget, but very specifically, if there's any sort of shutdown, how much does that put at risk sort of the buyback activity expected in the fourth quarter? Or if it's very short, does that not impact? And maybe you can walk through how you're viewing sort of the risks around that and impact on the fourth quarter cash deployment?

    傑伊,也許只是為了跟進您在準備好的演講中發表的評論。我認為您對第四季度的回購活動發表了評論,這在某種程度上取決於 24 財年預算的時間表以及是否存在可能的關閉。您能否談談您對 24 年預算的時間表有何看法?具體來說,如果出現任何形式的停工,這會給第四季度預期的回購活動帶來多大的風險?或者如果它很短,那不會有影響嗎?也許您可以談談您如何看待相關風險以及對第四季度現金部署的影響?

  • Jesus Malave - CFO

    Jesus Malave - CFO

  • Sure. So to date, we've done $3 billion with this new guide at $6 billion, that's $3 billion in the fourth quarter. We're monitoring the status of the budget discussions and resolution of that. If we do find ourselves in a shutdown scenario would cause us to take a pause in another relook at that share repurchase. And what we would probably do is just defer it, so it would be more of an issue of timing versus anything else until such time that the budget gets clarified. So history tells us, these things are fairly short-lived. We believe that we'll be able to get through it here in the fourth quarter. If not, then it would just push probably into the first quarter and the like and really won't see a meaningful impact there.

    當然。到目前為止,我們已經透過這份新指南完成了 30 億美元的投資,即 60 億美元,即第四季的 30 億美元。我們正在監控預算討論的狀態及其解決方案。如果我們確實發現自己處於關閉狀態,將導致我們暫停另一次重新審視股票回購。我們可能會做的就是推遲它,所以這更多的是一個時間問題,而不是其他任何事情,直到預算得到澄清。歷史告訴我們,這些事情都是短暫的。我們相信我們能夠在第四季度渡過難關。如果沒有,那麼它可能只會推遲到第一季等,並且不會真正看到有意義的影響。

  • But again, in a shutdown scenario, you just take a look at what does that mean? It does -- you can't have new starts. It could be disrupted to programs. It could also put us in a situation where we're doing some self-funding to keep programs on track. And to the extent that occurs, it could be a limiting factor on share repurchase.

    但同樣,在關閉的情況下,你只需看看這意味著什麼?確實如此——你不能有新的開始。它可能會擾亂程序。它也可能使我們陷入這樣的境地:我們需要進行一些自籌資金以確保專案步入正軌。如果發生這種情況,這可能會成為股票回購的限制因素。

  • Maria Ricciardone Lee - VP of IR

    Maria Ricciardone Lee - VP of IR

  • Lois, are you still there?

    路易斯,你還在嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Yes. The next question will come from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies. Sheila's line did drop from the Q&A. So we'll move to Rob Stallard and he's from Vertical Research.

    是的。下一個問題將來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。希拉的台詞確實從問答中消失了。我們將邀請 Rob Stallard,他來自 Vertical Research。

  • Robert Alan Stallard - Partner

    Robert Alan Stallard - Partner

  • A question for Jim or Jay. On the balance sheet, you noted that you're returning more than 100% of free cash flow to shareholders at the moment. But we do have this ongoing U.S. budget uncertainty and you're going to put more money into the pension fund. So how sustainable do you think it is to be returning more than 100% to shareholders going forward?

    問吉姆或傑伊一個問題。在資產負債表上,您指出您目前正在向股東返還超過 100% 的自由現金流。但美國預算確實存在持續的不確定性,你將向退休基金投入更多資金。那麼,您認為未來向股東回報超過 100% 的可持續性如何?

  • Jesus Malave - CFO

    Jesus Malave - CFO

  • It's a good question. If you look at just the profile with this incremental authorization that we have, the way we're looking at it is $6 billion here in 2023, $4 billion in 2024 and then essentially $3 billion in '25 and $3 billion in '26, which puts us equal to free cash flow in that ballpark, assuming kind of a $6 billion placeholder offer free cash flow in those given years.

    這是一個好問題。如果你只看一下我們擁有的增量授權的概況,我們的看法是 2023 年為 60 億美元,2024 年為 40 億美元,然後在 25 年為 30 億美元,在 26 年為 30 億美元,這假設在給定年份中有60 億美元的佔位符提供自由現金流,則我們等於該範圍內的自由現金流。

  • And so that's the way we're viewing it, Rob. So over time, over the next few years, it will revert back to more of a 100% of free cash flow. But again, we'll look at it year-by-year. As you've seen in the last 2 years, we did increase it here in the fourth quarter, and we'll continue to evaluate those opportunities as they present themselves, the reality of what happens with actual pension funding, what progress we make in our working capital reduction initiatives and all those will go into the mix master and provide the inform what we formally do in any given year.

    這就是我們看待它的方式,羅布。因此,隨著時間的推移,在接下來的幾年裡,它將恢復到 100% 的自由現金流。但同樣,我們將逐年審視它。正如您在過去兩年中看到的那樣,我們確實在第四季度增加了養老金,我們將繼續評估這些機會的出現,實際養老金資金的實際情況,我們在這方面取得的進展我們的營運資本削減舉措以及所有這些舉措都將進入混合大師,並為我們在任何特定年份正式採取的行動提供資訊。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question will come from the line of Richard Safran from Seaport Research Partners.

    下一個問題將來自 Seaport Research Partners 的 Richard Safran。

  • Richard Tobie Safran - Research Analyst

    Richard Tobie Safran - Research Analyst

  • So if we take an optimistic scenario here on what happens with the budget outlook, I wanted to know if you could discuss the 2024 bookings and the opportunity set both classified and unclassified. Again, if we assume no shutdown and we assume to get funding, I'm interested in what the major competitions are next year is what was -- how you see backlog growth and the book-to-bill is better than 1?

    因此,如果我們對預算前景持樂觀態度,我想知道您是否可以討論 2024 年的預訂以及分類和非分類的機會集。再說一遍,如果我們假設沒有停工並且我們假設獲得了資金,我感興趣的是明年的主要競爭是什麼——你如何看待積壓增長以及訂單出貨比優於 1?

  • Jesus Malave - CFO

    Jesus Malave - CFO

  • Richard, we've got a pretty decent line of sight to continuing growth in our backlog. There's a lot of activity happening in classified, which I can't speak to specifics about, but we do see some award decisions next year there. We'll continue to see orders strength in MFC over this time period.

    理查德,我們對積壓訂單的持續成長有了相當不錯的認識。分類領域有很多活動,我無法透露具體細節,但我們確實看到明年會有一些獎項決定。在此期間,我們將繼續看到 MFC 的訂單強勁。

  • And we've talked about orders between 2023 and 2027, of $10 billion. We have not seen all of those orders come to fruition yet. So we would expect those to be continued opportunities for us. We'll continue to have F-35, so Lot 18 next year is probably something that we should probably consider coming into the backlog in 2024. In addition to the performance-based logistics program on the F-35 program, we've our proposal to the customer. We continue to have dialogue. And we're cautiously optimistic that we can get under contract in the first half of next year. So those are some key awards to think about for 2024.

    我們討論了 2023 年至 2027 年期間 100 億美元的訂單。我們尚未看到所有這些訂單都已落實。因此,我們希望這些對我們來說將是持續的機會。我們將繼續擁有 F-35,因此明年的第 18 批可能是我們應該考慮在 2024 年積壓的項目。除了 F-35 項目的基於性能的後勤項目之外,我們還有我們的給客戶的建議。我們繼續對話。我們對明年上半年簽約持謹慎樂觀態度。這些是 2024 年需要考慮的一些重要獎項。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies.

    下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

  • Sheila Karin Kahyaoglu - Equity Analyst

    Sheila Karin Kahyaoglu - Equity Analyst

  • Can you guys hear me?

    你們聽得到我說話嗎?

  • James D. Taiclet - Chairman, President & CEO

    James D. Taiclet - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Yes. We can hear you fine, Sheila.

    是的。我們可以聽到你的聲音,希拉。

  • Sheila Karin Kahyaoglu - Equity Analyst

    Sheila Karin Kahyaoglu - Equity Analyst

  • So just wanted to ask Jim and Jay, you're a pretty confident management team just given your big backlog, $150 billion. You're returning 150% to shareholders, which is a big number. So you've talked about low single-digit growth and 11% margins for some time. So I just kind of wanted to know what's changed given the backdrop is seemingly better, is it just a budget uncertainty? Is it supply chain? Is it F-35? Maybe if you can just comment on that.

    所以我想問 Jim 和 Jay,鑑於你們的積壓金額高達 1500 億美元,你們是一個非常自信的管理團隊。你將向股東返還 150%,這是一個很大的數字。一段時間以來,您一直在談論低個位數成長和 11% 的利潤率。所以我只是想知道在背景似乎更好的情況下發生了什麼變化,這只是預算的不確定性嗎?是供應鏈嗎?是F-35嗎?也許你可以對此發表評論。

  • Jesus Malave - CFO

    Jesus Malave - CFO

  • Well, not much has really changed, to be honest, we talked about low single digits for a while now. We -- I talked about that in my prepared remarks. On the margins, underlying margin is generally flattish because we could be in a situation next year where we have multiple lots of the classified program, that could cause some variability.

    好吧,說實話,並沒有太大改變,我們已經討論了低個位數有一段時間了。我們——我在準備好的發言中談到了這一點。在利潤方面,基礎利潤率普遍持平,因為明年我們可能會遇到這樣的情況:我們有多個批次的分類計劃,這可能會導致一些變化。

  • But that doesn't fundamentally alter what we've been really talking about. Same thing with free cash flow. We've been targeting mid-single-digit free cash flow per share growth. And we still see a path there. We know there are some headwinds, whether it's pension and the like, but we still believe that, that we have a line of sight to be able to do that. And that's what we're going to be working through on a year-by-year basis and starting with 2024 over the next couple of months. We'll work through solidify our plans, and we'll present them formally to you in January.

    但這並沒有從根本上改變我們一直在談論的內容。自由現金流也是如此。我們的目標是每股自由現金流實現中個位數成長。我們仍然看到那裡有一條路。我們知道存在一些阻力,無論是退休金還是類似的問題,但我們仍然相信,我們有能力做到這一點。這就是我們從 2024 年開始在接下來的幾個月逐年努力解決的問題。我們將努力鞏固我們的計劃,並將在一月份正式向您提交。

  • James D. Taiclet - Chairman, President & CEO

    James D. Taiclet - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Yes. In the longer term, there are some things that are changing significantly. One is the global threat environment and the geopolitical situations getting more concerning and challenging. That's refocusing the U.S. and certainly our allies around the world on national defense an increasing manner. The second big trend that's going on is the continued evolution of both physical and digital technology at a rate never seen before serving human history, frankly.

    是的。從長遠來看,有些事情正在發生重大變化。一是全球威脅環境和地緣政治情勢更令人擔憂和挑戰。這使美國以及我們在世界各地的盟友越來越多地重新關注國防。坦白說,正在發生的第二個大趨勢是實體和數位技術以前所未有的速度持續發展,為人類歷史服務。

  • And so the opportunity for our company to take the leadership role in integrating those technologies, whether they're hypersonics, hypersonic defense, space technologies that are advanced as well as 5G, distributed cloud, artificial intelligence, we're investing in all those technologies to try to drive them in and pull through using this 21st Century concept, the technology driving concept we have is to pull through our platforms and enable them quickly on the open architecture that we're advocating for that will be quickly and widely adoptable making our platforms more compelling as we go forward in time.

    因此,我們公司有機會在整合這些技術方面發揮領導作用,無論是高超音速、高超音速防禦、先進的太空技術,還是 5G、分散式雲端、人工智慧,我們都在投資所有這些技術為了嘗試使用這個21 世紀的概念來推動它們並實現這一目標,我們所擁有的技術驅動概念是透過我們的平台並在我們所倡導的開放式架構上快速啟用它們,這將被快速且廣泛地採用,從而使我們的隨著時間的推移,平台變得更加引人注目。

  • And then the third thing is the notion that we have international defense strategy, and I think our allies are increasingly embracing is international cooperation, which drives interoperability and also linking command and control systems, all of which comport with our strategy. So I think there are some megatrends that are going on over a longer term that won't necessarily affect us quarter-to-quarter as Jay was stating, but will give us opportunities that I think the company is uniquely positioned to take advantage of over that long term.

    第三件事是我們擁有國際防禦戰略的概念,我認為我們的盟友越來越多地接受國際合作,這推動了互操作性並連接了指揮和控制系統,所有這些都符合我們的戰略。因此,我認為,從長遠來看,一些大趨勢並不一定會像傑伊所說的那樣逐季度影響我們,但會給我們帶來機會,我認為公司處於獨特的地位,可以充分利用這些機會。那個長期。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question is from the line of Seth Seifman from JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

  • Seth Michael Seifman - Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Seth Michael Seifman - Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Maybe, Jay, one quick housekeeping question and then one broader question for both of you. The mid-single-digit growth you talked about for free cash flow per share next year. Did that assume any kind of pension contribution next year? And how big might that be or not? And then just more broadly, when you guys talk about seeking out additional suppliers of Solid, is that something for maybe developing hypersonics programs for late in the decade and into the 2030s? Or is that about replacing your suppliers on kind of today's existing programs?

    傑伊,也許,先問一個簡單的內務問題,然後再問你們兩個更廣泛的問題。您談到的明年每股自由現金流的中個位數成長。這是否假設明年有任何形式的退休金繳款?那可能有多大?更廣泛地說,當你們談論尋找更多 Solid 供應商時,這是否是為了在本世紀末和 2030 年代開發高超音速項目?還是要根據當今的現有計劃替換您的供應商?

  • James D. Taiclet - Chairman, President & CEO

    James D. Taiclet - Chairman, President & CEO

  • I'll talk to Solid Rocket Motors and Jay can take the free cash flow for share part of your question there. So our objective is to bring antifragility into our own supply chain first and to broadly apply that to the DoD in partnership with them as well.

    我將與固體火箭發動機公司交談,傑伊可以利用自由現金流來分享您的問題的一部分。因此,我們的目標是首先將反脆弱性引入我們自己的供應鏈,並與他們合作將其廣泛應用於國防部。

  • And so when it comes to solid rocket motors, I mean we're actually starting with GMLRS, for example, a legacy technology where we want to augment our existing supplier and have a dual source, frankly. And then that will extend into other systems, large and small and legacy in advance. So this is not a onetime objective.

    因此,當涉及固體火箭發動機時,我的意思是,我們實際上是從GMLRS 開始的,例如,坦率地說,這是一項傳統技術,我們希望增強我們現有的供應商並擁有雙重來源。然後,這將提前擴展到其他大大小小的系統和遺留系統。所以這不是一次性的目標。

  • This is a broad in a way, campaign like approach to strengthening our own supply chain and enabling multiple sources really for even beyond our company for our industry, which I think is important. So I do think that this is not a one-shot deal. We're in negotiations and discussions with a counterparty. We think we can start us off with on this journey, but it's going to be a long journey, and we'll probably have additional participants and programs as the years and even decades roll on.

    這是一種廣泛的、類似活動的方法,旨在加強我們自己的供應鏈,並為我們的行業提供多種來源,甚至超出我們公司的範圍,我認為這很重要。所以我確實認為這不是一次性交易。我們正在與交易對手進行談判和討論。我們認為我們可以開始這個旅程,但這將是一個漫長的旅程,隨著時間的推移,甚至幾十年的推移,我們可能會有更多的參與者和專案。

  • Jesus Malave - CFO

    Jesus Malave - CFO

  • On the question of the free cash flow per share for 2024, Seth, what I mentioned is that we're setting up internal targeting and internal actions to be able to arrive at that incremental pension contribution would obviously put pressure on that. And we'll go through that over the next coming months and determine what the art of what's possible and what our plans would be, and again we'll present that in January.

    關於 2024 年每股自由現金流的問題,Seth,我提到的是,我們正在製定內部目標和內部行動,以便能夠實現增量退休金繳款,這顯然會對此施加壓力。我們將在接下來的幾個月中仔細研究這個問題,並確定什麼是可能的藝術以及我們的計劃是什麼,我們將在 1 月再次提出這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question is from Myles Walton from Wolfe Research.

    下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的邁爾斯·沃爾頓。

  • Myles Alexander Walton - MD & Senior Analyst

    Myles Alexander Walton - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Jay, a quick clarification and then a question for Jim. The clarification on the margins for next year, 25 to 50 basis points of risk, I guess, is what you're seeing on the MFC. Should we anticipate that there's a way around that? Or is that the base case? And then, Jim, in the press release, you talked about digital services revenue over time. And I'm just curious, maybe you could touch on your vision of what digital services revenue is today and where you want to take it over the next several years?

    傑伊,快速澄清一下,然後問吉姆一個問題。我想,您在 MFC 上看到的是明年利潤率的澄清,即 25 至 50 個基點的風險。我們是否應該預見到有辦法解決這個問題?還是這是基本情況?然後,吉姆,在新聞稿中,您談到了隨著時間的推移數位服務收入。我只是很好奇,也許您可以談談您對當前數位服務收入的願景以及您希望在未來幾年將其發展到什麼程度?

  • James D. Taiclet - Chairman, President & CEO

    James D. Taiclet - Chairman, President & CEO

  • So digital services will be a wide range, but we're starting with this notion of trusted, reliable mission systems engineering for command and control and battle management systems. That is a business we're already in, actually. It is largely digital already. And it's these kind of programs like defensive farm. We have a program in the UAE that's based on this technology as well. Call it, DIAMONDShield. We're using that core technology to then expand into other programs like AIR6500. So we're already in that business. It's in, I think, the mid-low to mid-single-digit billions at this point.

    因此,數位服務將是一個廣泛的領域,但我們將從用於指揮和控制以及戰鬥管理系統的可信、可靠的任務系統工程概念開始。實際上,這是我們已經從事的業務。它基本上已經數位化了。就是防禦農場之類的項目。我們在阿聯酋也有一個基於這項技術的專案。稱之為 DIAMONDShield。我們正在使用該核心技術,然後擴展到 AIR6500 等其他程式。所以我們已經涉足這個行業了。我認為,目前這個數字在中低至個位數數十億之間。

  • And we're going to try to ramp that up in and of itself, add other technologies to that for networking, connecting again our platforms as well as other platforms from other OEMs to provide mission solutions for the DoD. So the digital and the physical technologies will ultimately come together in a way that can advance mission capability for our customers in, say, air-to-air combat, surface, warfare, et cetera, and air and missile defense integration.

    我們將嘗試加強其本身,添加其他網路技術,再次連接我們的平台以及其他原始設備製造商的其他平台,為國防部提供任務解決方案。因此,數位技術和實體技術最終將以某種方式結合在一起,為我們的客戶提高任務能力,例如空對空作戰、水面作戰等,以及空中和飛彈防禦一體化。

  • Those kinds of missions, we want to advance every 3 to 6 months of the combination of digital and physical technologies of our own and from others, partners, et cetera, that we will work with. So this is, again, long-term broad approach, but we've already got a very, very good starting point that's material in the command and control and battle management systems that we have today and how we're augmenting them and modernizing those for the future.

    對於此類任務,我們希望每 3 到 6 個月推進一次我們自己以及我們將合作的其他人、合作夥伴等的數位和實體技術的結合。因此,這又是長期廣泛的方法,但我們已經有了一個非常非常好的起點,這對於我們今天擁有的指揮控制和戰鬥管理系統以及我們如何增強它們並使它們現代化至關重要為將來。

  • Jesus Malave - CFO

    Jesus Malave - CFO

  • Okay. Going back to the question on margins for next year. Just as I mentioned, underlying margins, and let me for sake of clarity, margins, excluding the impact of the MFC program, we expect to be flattish. The MFC programs, it will provide a drag on the margins next year, and it's a question of timing. So it could be anywhere between 25 to 50 basis points. And again, we'll have a lot more clarity on that as we close out the year.

    好的。回到明年的利潤率問題。正如我所提到的,基本利潤率,為了清楚起見,我們預計利潤率在排除 MFC 計劃的影響後將持平。 MFC 計劃將拖累明年的利潤率,這是一個時間問題。所以它可能在 25 到 50 個基點之間。再說一次,當我們結束這一年時,我們對此有更清晰的認識。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from the line of Noah Poponak from Goldman Sachs.

    下一個問題來自高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 的諾亞·波波納克 (Noah Poponak)。

  • Noah Poponak - Equity Analyst

    Noah Poponak - Equity Analyst

  • Jay, I guess I also wanted to ask about margins, and you sort of did there, but I don't know if you would just state where you expect the MFC margin to shake out for the year, next year or what it looks like in the quarters with the more concentrated losses?

    Jay,我想我也想問一下利潤率,你也問了,但我不知道你是否會說明你預計今年、明年的 MFC 利潤率會達到什麼水平,或者會是什麼樣子在虧損較為集中的季度?

  • And then I just wondered if you could talk about how -- a little bit more about how this got here. I know you've talked about having the fixed price LRIPs with prices fixed a little while ago. Was -- is that something that's been going on longer than I realized? I know you also -- my understanding is you also no bid missile program that was awarded recently because it had fixed price development. Is the customer shifting the risk a little bit towards the contractor? Or am I overreading what I'm seeing out there?

    然後我只是想知道你是否可以談談這是如何發生的。我知道您不久前曾談到採用固定價格的 LRIP。這件事發生的時間比我想像的還要長嗎?我也了解你——我的理解是,你最近也沒有投標導彈計劃,因為它有固定的價格開發。客戶是否將風險稍微轉移給承包商?還是我過度閱讀了我所看到的內容?

  • Jesus Malave - CFO

    Jesus Malave - CFO

  • Well, let me maybe take the second part of it and then circle back. There are really 2 different programs. The -- I think you're referring to the standard attack weapon award and that was a fixed price development program that we decided not to pursue because of the risk posture over there. Each program and pursuit really stands on its own, and we review those individually. In this case, we thought the risk profile was just too much. And so we backed off. On this particular program, on the classified program, that was a cost-plus development program. So there really was not much risk associated what the development cycle.

    好吧,讓我先講第二部分,然後再轉回來。實際上有兩個不同的程序。我認為你指的是標準攻擊武器獎勵,這是一個固定價格的開發計劃,由於那裡的風險狀況,我們決定不實行該計劃。每個項目和追求都是獨立的,我們會單獨審查它們。在這種情況下,我們認為風險太大了。所以我們退縮了。在這個特定的計劃中,在機密計劃中,這是一個成本加成的開發計劃。因此,開發週期確實沒有太多風險。

  • There are these production low rate initial production lots that were priced pretty aggressively. And hence, we're starting -- we're going to start to see the headwinds associated with that. As Jim mentioned, these are -- this would be a long-term program. And we know what it takes to make sure that we provide accretive NPV on these types of programs.

    這些生產量較低的初始生產批次的定價相當激進。因此,我們開始——我們將開始看到與此相關的不利因素。正如吉姆所提到的,這將是一個長期計劃。我們知道如何確保我們為這些類型的計劃提供增值的淨現值。

  • And so we track that and monitoring that, and we're confident over the long term, we'll be able to deliver that. So again, these are case-by-case type of situations that we pursue. On the -- we'll probably have to get back to you on the specific MFC margins for next year. I think we can back into 25 to 50 on the total company, you can back into what that impact is for MFC. But I just don't have it in front of me.

    因此,我們對此進行追蹤和監控,並且從長遠來看,我們有信心實現這一目標。再說一次,這些都是我們所追求的具體情況。關於——我們可能需要就明年的具體 MFC 利潤率向您回覆。我認為我們可以回顧整個公司的 25 到 50 個,你可以回顧一下這對 MFC 的影響。但我只是沒有它在我面前。

  • James D. Taiclet - Chairman, President & CEO

    James D. Taiclet - Chairman, President & CEO

  • And Noah, just to give you context here, the approach we're taking no matter what the customer's initiative is on risk balancing or imbalancing, the approach that Jay and I are taking here, as we look at programs going forward and opportunities is really a holistic one where we do take the long-term total program value into account, but we also take -- we'll take into account seriously short and midterm risk management. .

    諾亞,只是為了向您提供背景信息,無論客戶在風險平衡或不平衡方面的舉措是什麼,我們所採取的方法,傑伊和我在這裡所採取的方法,當我們考慮未來的計劃和機會時,這確實是我們確實考慮了長期總計劃價值,但我們也會認真考慮短期和中期風險管理。 。

  • And especially when it comes to fixed price either development or initial rate production because if you look at the concept of fixed price initial rate production on a program this technology is not settled in the first place yet because the development hasn't been done, we would ascribe a higher risk factor to that I think, going forward here based on both experience and just our own perspectives on these kinds of things.

    尤其是當涉及到固定價格開發或初始產量生產時,因為如果你看看一個程序中固定價格初始產量生產的概念,這項技術還沒有首先解決,因為開發尚未完成,我們我認為,根據經驗和我們自己對這類事情的看法,我認為這會帶來更高的風險因素。

  • Maria Ricciardone Lee - VP of IR

    Maria Ricciardone Lee - VP of IR

  • Okay. And Lois, I think we have time for 1 more as we approach the top of the hour.

    好的。路易斯,我想當我們快要結束的時候我們還有時間再聊一聊。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And that question come from the line of Jason Gursky from Citi.

    這個問題來自花旗銀行的 Jason Gursky。

  • Jason Gursky - MD & Lead Analyst

    Jason Gursky - MD & Lead Analyst

  • Jim, you mentioned in your prepared remarks, the idea of a supplemental for Taiwan. I'm wondering if you wouldn't do us a favor, just kind of remind us of what you're shipping into Taiwan today. And in the context of a supplement to what kinds of things do you think are going to be in high demand and would lead to more revenue for you all Jay, related to international here.

    吉姆,你在準備好的演講中提到了為台灣提供補充的想法。我想知道您是否願意幫我們一個忙,提醒我們您今天要運往台灣的貨物。在補充的背景下,你認為什麼樣的東西將會有很高的需求,並且會為你們所有人帶來更多的收入,傑伊,與這裡的國際相關。

  • I was wondering if you could just give us a quick update on the margin profile of your international business, kind of writ large today outside the F-35 program. If international is growing faster, is the expectation here that we would, all else be equal see margin expansion in light of international historically being higher margin than domestic business?

    我想知道您是否可以向我們快速介紹一下您的國際業務的利潤狀況,今天在 F-35 計劃之外的情況很明顯。如果國際業務成長更快,鑑於國際業務歷史上的利潤率高於國內業務,我們是否會在其他條件相同的情況下看到利潤率的擴張?

  • James D. Taiclet - Chairman, President & CEO

    James D. Taiclet - Chairman, President & CEO

  • So Jason, on Taiwan, I think the signature program that everybody is aware of is F-16 in both production and modernization. So that's ongoing. But we also provided a kind of comprehensive defensive Taiwan, like a Defense of Guam award we won last year, approach to integrating these digital technologies with the aircraft available that we provide and others, the missile systems that we provide and others and integrate them into sort of the approach to defending Taiwan just like we're designing for Guam.

    Jason,在台灣,我認為每個人都知道的標誌性項目是 F-16 的生產和現代化。所以這一切仍在繼續。但我們也提供了一種全面防禦台灣的方法,就像我們去年獲得的關島防禦獎一樣,將這些數位技術與我們提供的飛機和其他飛機、我們提供的飛彈系統和其他系統整合在一起,並將它們整合到就像我們為關島設計的那樣,是一種保衛台灣的方法。

  • So there could be a wide range of digital and physical products that would come with this over time. The U.S. government will help define with the Taiwanese government. What -- when if any of those will be procured and released for export to Taiwan to the FMS program and other vehicles. So I can't speak for the government as to what that will look like. But I think it's, again, a possibility that given the rising tensions there could be supplementals for Taiwan in addition to, as we said, Israel and Ukraine.

    因此,隨著時間的推移,可能會出現各種各樣的數位和實體產品。美國政府將協助與台灣政府確定。什麼——什麼時候採購並發布這些產品,用於出口到台灣的 FMS 專案和其他車輛。所以我不能代表政府談論這會是什麼樣子。但我認為,鑑於緊張局勢不斷升級,除了我們所謂的以色列和烏克蘭之外,台灣也可能會得到補充。

  • Jesus Malave - CFO

    Jesus Malave - CFO

  • And on the international margins, historically, the margins have been higher than they are for U.S. government customers. But in this case, it's so what I would expect the base business to continue this higher margin. But a lot of the incremental opportunities that we've been talking about are really going through foreign military sales contracting which are more like U.S. DoD-type margins. And so while we will see kind of a net blended margin profile that's probably higher than the kind of base U.S. DoD, it will be limited -- at least the incremental business is going to be limited because they are FMS.

    從歷史上看,國際利潤率一直高於美國政府客戶的利潤率。但在這種情況下,我希望基礎業務能夠持續維持較高的利潤率。但我們一直在談論的許多增量機會實際上是透過外國軍事銷售合約來實現的,這更像是美國國防部類型的利潤。因此,雖然我們將看到某種淨混合利潤狀況可能高於美國國防部的基礎,但它是有限的——至少增量業務將受到限制,因為它們是 FMS。

  • Maria Ricciardone Lee - VP of IR

    Maria Ricciardone Lee - VP of IR

  • All right. Great. Thanks, everybody. So I think we're at the top of the hour. I'll turn the call back over to Jim for some final thoughts.

    好的。偉大的。謝謝大家。所以我認為我們正處於最高峰。我會將電話轉回給吉姆,徵求一些最後的想法。

  • James D. Taiclet - Chairman, President & CEO

    James D. Taiclet - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Sure. Thanks, Maria. I think before we conclude today, I do want to thank all of our employees around the world and across the country for their continued dedication. They're supporting our signature programs. They're going after new pursuits, advancing these digital technologies. And all that together will really enhance deterrents globally, especially in the more sort of dangerous world we live in. I want to really congratulate and thank our teams for everything they're doing.

    當然。謝謝,瑪麗亞。我想在今天結束之前,我確實要感謝我們在世界各地和全國各地的所有員工的持續奉獻。他們支持我們的簽名計劃。他們正在追求新的追求,推動這些數位科技的發展。所有這些加在一起將真正增強全球的威懾力,尤其是在我們所處的更危險的世界中。我想真正祝賀並感謝我們的團隊所做的一切。

  • We also want to make sure that you the shareholders are reminded yet again that everything we're doing here is designed to deliver a compelling value to you all for many years to come. Jay and I really focus on free cash flow per share, along with the dividend to make sure that you're getting an interesting return over time, and we're trying to expand the business as we go as well.

    我們也希望確保再次提醒各位股東,我們在這裡所做的一切都是為了在未來的許多年裡為你們所有人提供令人信服的價值。傑伊和我非常關注每股自由現金流以及股息,以確保您隨著時間的推移獲得可觀的回報,我們也在努力擴大業務。

  • So thank you again for joining us today. We look forward to speaking with all of you on our next earnings call in January. And Lois, that concludes the call for this morning. Bye-bye.

    再次感謝您今天加入我們。我們期待在一月份的下一次財報電話會議上與大家交談。路易斯,今天早上的電話會議到此結束。再見。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T Event Conference, and you may now disconnect.

    謝謝。女士們、先生們,我們今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與和使用 AT&T Event Conference,您現在可以斷開連線。