洛克希德·馬丁 (LMT) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Lockheed Martin Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2018 Earnings Conference Call.

女士們，先生們，感謝您的支持，歡迎參加洛克希德馬丁公司 2018 年第四季度和全年收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

（操作員說明）作為提醒，今天的通話正在錄音中。

I'll turn the conference now to Mr. Greg Gardner, Vice President of Investor Relations.

我現在將會議轉給投資者關係副總裁 Greg Gardner 先生。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Thank you, John, and good morning.

謝謝你，約翰，早上好。

I'd like to welcome everyone to our Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call.

我想歡迎大家參加我們的 2018 年第四季度收益電話會議。

Joining me today on the call are Marillyn Hewson, our Chairman and President and Chief Executive Officer; Bruce Tanner, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Ken Possenriede, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer-elect.

今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的董事長兼總裁兼首席執行官瑪麗蓮·休森；我們的執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Bruce Tanner；以及我們的執行副總裁兼候任首席財務官 Ken Possenriede。

Statements made in today's call that are not historical fact are considered forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of federal securities law.

在今天的電話會議中作出的非歷史事實的陳述被視為前瞻性陳述，並根據聯邦證券法的安全港條款作出。

Actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements.

實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中預測的結果大不相同。

Please see today's press release and our SEC filings for a description of some of the factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements.

請參閱今天的新聞稿和我們的 SEC 文件，了解可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果大不相同的一些因素的描述。

We have posted charts on our website today that we plan to address during the call to supplement our comments.

我們今天在我們的網站上發布了圖表，我們計劃在電話會議期間解決這些圖表以補充我們的評論。

Please access our website at www.lockheedmartin.com and click on the Investor Relations link to view and follow the charts.

請訪問我們的網站 www.lockheedmartin.com 並單擊投資者關係鏈接以查看和跟踪圖表。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Marillyn.

有了這個，我想把電話轉給瑪麗蓮。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today on our Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Call.

大家早上好，感謝您今天參加我們的 2018 年第四季度財報電話會議。

I hope everyone has had a good start to the new year.

我希望每個人都有一個好的開始新的一年。

As you heard Greg mention, we are joined today by Ken Possenriede, our CFO-elect, who will take over for Bruce after we file our 10-K in February as Bruce has announced that he is retiring later this year.

正如您聽到 Greg 提到的那樣，我們的當選 CFO Ken Possenriede 今天加入了我們，他將在我們於 2 月提交我們的 10-K 後接替 Bruce，因為 Bruce 宣布他將於今年晚些時候退休。

Ken and I worked together quite a bit over the years, and I'm very excited that he will join our executive leadership team as CFO.

多年來，肯和我一起工作了很多，我很高興他將作為首席財務官加入我們的執行領導團隊。

I'll have a few more thoughts to add about both Bruce and Ken after our Q&A portion of the call.

在我們的電話問答部分之後，我將對布魯斯和肯添加更多想法。

But for now, welcome, Ken.

但是現在，歡迎，肯。

Thank you, Marillyn.

謝謝你，瑪麗蓮。

I'll begin by thanking our entire Lockheed Martin team for an impressive year and express my gratitude for their outstanding contributions throughout 2018.

首先，我要感謝我們整個洛克希德馬丁團隊令人印象深刻的一年，並對他們在 2018 年的傑出貢獻表示感謝。

It was through their dedication and commitment that we were able to deliver results which not only exceeded many of our expectations, but also set records across a number of our financial metrics.

正是通過他們的奉獻精神和承諾，我們能夠交付的結果不僅超出了我們的許多預期，而且還在我們的許多財務指標中創造了記錄。

Notably, all 4 of our business areas grew sales, earnings and backlog during the year.

值得注意的是，我們所有的 4 個業務領域在這一年的銷售額、收益和積壓訂單都有所增長。

Our strong performance was broad-based and a reflection of the continuing demand for our wide range of products.

我們的強勁表現是廣泛的，反映了對我們廣泛產品的持續需求。

I'll touch on some of the performance highlights in just a moment, including some important F-35 international activities.

我稍後會談到一些性能亮點，包括一些重要的 F-35 國際活動。

But I want to first discuss a few of the notable new business successes that contributed to our fourth quarter orders and showed the strength of our broad portfolio.

但我想首先討論一些顯著的新業務成功，這些成功促成了我們第四季度的訂單，並展示了我們廣泛的產品組合的實力。

Aeronautics received the largest single order of the quarter and the year with the announcement of our F-35 production lots 12, 13 and 14 economic order quantity, or EOQ award, at an incremental value of approximately $19 billion, adding over 250 aircraft to our backlog.

航空獲得了本季度和當年最大的單筆訂單，我們宣布了 F-35 生產批次 12、13 和 14 的經濟訂單數量或 EOQ 合同，增量價值約為 190 億美元，為我們的公司增加了 250 多架飛機積壓。

Our F-35 aircraft backlog has grown to nearly 400 planes, a level which exceeds the total F-35 deliveries we have made to date, a clear sign of the program's momentum.

我們的 F-35 飛機積壓量已增至近 400 架，這一水平超過了我們迄今為止交付的 F-35 總交付量，這清楚地表明了該計劃的發展勢頭。

We continue to work with the F-35 joint program office to finalize the full order of lots 12, 13 and 14, which once completed, will represent a total of 478 aircraft.

我們將繼續與 F-35 聯合計劃辦公室合作，最終敲定第 12、13 和 14 批的全部訂單，這些訂單一旦完成，總共將代表 478 架飛機。

International community expressed their continued interest in our legacy F-16 fighter program for both upgrades and new production units of our Viper aircraft configuration.

國際社會表達了他們對我們的舊 F-16 戰鬥機計劃的持續興趣，這些計劃包括我們的 Viper 飛機配置的升級和新生產單元。

Our aero team closed on an opportunity with Greece to modernize 85 of their current F-16 fleet to this advanced platform, continuing the partnership with the Greek military that has spanned more than 70 years.

我們的航空團隊抓住了與希臘合作的機會，將其現有的 85 架 F-16 機隊現代化改造為這一先進平台，繼續與希臘軍方長達 70 多年的合作夥伴關係。

The Bulgarian Ministry of Defense announced their intent to procure 8 new jets.

保加利亞國防部宣布他們打算採購 8 架新噴氣式飛機。

Once the contract is finalized an definitized, Bulgaria will join Bahrain and Slovakia as new F-16 customers, extending our backlog of Fighting Falcons well into the mid-2020s.

一旦合同最終確定，保加利亞將與巴林和斯洛伐克一起成為新的 F-16 客戶，從而將我們積壓的戰隼戰機延長至 2020 年代中期。

Our Missiles and Fire Control team secured a PAC-3 award to deliver over 450 interceptors, launcher modification kits and associated equipment to the U.S. Army and Foreign Military Sales customers.

我們的導彈和火控團隊獲得了 PAC-3 獎項，為美國陸軍和外國軍事銷售客戶提供了 450 多個攔截器、發射器改裝套件和相關設備。

To date, 13 nations have chosen PAC-3 products to provide missile defense capabilities for their citizens.

迄今為止，已有 13 個國家選擇 PAC-3 產品為其公民提供導彈防禦能力。

And we continue to expand our manufacturing facility to satisfy the growing requirements.

我們繼續擴大我們的製造設施以滿足不斷增長的需求。

Also this quarter, Rotary and Mission Systems won a competitive award from Missile Defense Agency to design and develop a second homeland defense radar system and provide installation services for our solution in Hawaii.

同樣在本季度，Rotary and Mission Systems 獲得了導彈防禦局的競爭獎項，以設計和開發第二個國土防御雷達系統，並為我們在夏威夷的解決方案提供安裝服務。

This $585 million contract is part of the U.S. Military's ballistic defense military system and will provide improved tracking and discrimination technologies to counter evolving ballistic missile threats.

這份價值 5.85 億美元的合同是美國軍方彈道防禦軍事系統的一部分，將提供改進的跟踪和識別技術，以應對不斷變化的彈道導彈威脅。

This strategic win leverages capabilities developed on our long-range discrimination radar contract and provides the lowest risk solution to identify and warn of long-range ballistic missile threats during midcourse flight.

這一戰略勝利利用了我們在遠程識別雷達合同上開發的能力，並提供了風險最低的解決方案，以在中途飛行期間識別和警告遠程彈道導彈威脅。

These announcements reflect the strength of our legacy programs as well as our commitment to innovation that has resulted in new strategic long-term growth opportunities.

這些公告反映了我們傳統計劃的實力以及我們對創新的承諾，從而帶來了新的戰略性長期增長機會。

I'm very proud of our Lockheed Martin team and the passions with which we pursue new business solutions to support our customers' missions.

我為我們的洛克希德馬丁團隊以及我們追求新業務解決方案以支持客戶使命的熱情感到非常自豪。

Moving briefly to the federal budget environment.

簡要介紹一下聯邦預算環境。

The Department of Defense is operating under the 2019 fiscal year Appropriation Act that became law last year.

國防部根據去年成為法律的 2019 財年撥款法案開展工作。

The Appropriations Act fully funded the Defense Department, providing approximately $617 billion of base budget funding for the nation's security and defense programs.

《撥款法案》為國防部提供了全部資金，為國家安全和國防計劃提供了大約 6170 億美元的基本預算資金。

The legislation aligned with the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018, which provided additional funding for national defense and raised the budget caps for fiscal 2019.

該立法與 2018 年兩黨預算法案一致，該法案為國防提供了額外資金，並提高了 2019 財年的預算上限。

We await the release of the FY '20 Presidential budget submission in the coming weeks.

我們等待在未來幾週內發布 20 財年總統預算提交。

We believe it will align with the National Defense strategy's focus on missile defense, nuclear, space, cyber, joint lethality and intelligence capabilities.

我們相信這將符合國防戰略對導彈防禦、核、太空、網絡、聯合殺傷力和情報能力的關注。

We anticipate that the budget input will reflect these priorities and we believe our portfolio is well aligned with this strategy.

我們預計預算投入將反映這些優先事項，我們相信我們的投資組合與這一戰略非常一致。

We are hopeful that fiscal year 2020 funding will be in line with or better than prior Presidential budget request, and that it will continue to emphasize recapitalization of our nation's defense assets and the research and development that is critical to maintain our country's future security.

我們希望 2020 財年的資金將符合或優於之前的總統預算要求，並將繼續強調我們國家國防資產的資本重組以及對維護我們國家未來安全至關重要的研發。

Several days ago an agreement was reached to temporarily open, through February 15, the federal agencies that were affected by the recent partial shutdown of the government.

幾天前達成了一項協議，將受近期政府部分關閉影響的聯邦機構暫時開放至 2 月 15 日。

The previous closure of these agencies did not have a significant impact on this year's anticipated financial metrics, as a vast majority of our business is currently funded through the DoD's FY '19 Appropriations bill.

之前關閉這些機構並沒有對今年的預期財務指標產生重大影響，因為我們目前的絕大多數業務都是通過國防部的 19 財年撥款法案提供資金的。

Should a budget impasse reoccur after the 3-week continuing resolution expires, it is possible we could see some delays in 2019 awards and orders.

如果在為期 3 週的持續解決方案到期後再次出現預算僵局，我們可能會看到 2019 年的獎勵和訂單出現一些延遲。

As government leaders negotiate a new spending agreement, we continue to advocate for stable and consistent budgeting that enables U.S. Government agencies and the industry to plan, invest and execute with confidence.

隨著政府領導人就新的支出協議進行談判，我們繼續倡導穩定和一致的預算編制，使美國政府機構和行業能夠充滿信心地規劃、投資和執行。

Moving on, I'd like to highlight several significant events that occurred across the corporation during the past quarter.

接下來，我想重點介紹上一季度公司內部發生的幾件重大事件。

Beginning with an update on our F-35 program, we saw several accomplishments and important milestones take place this quarter that spotlight the program's matured production and base deployment activities as well as the continuing demand we see from the international community.

從我們 F-35 計劃的更新開始，我們看到本季度取得了多項成就和重要里程碑，這些成就和重要里程碑突出了該計劃成熟的生產和基地部署活動，以及我們從國際社會看到的持續需求。

First, we delivered our 91st F-35 aircraft of the year on December 20, meeting our 2018 target and exceeding our 2017 deliveries by 25 jets, an increase of nearly 40%.

首先，我們在 12 月 20 日交付了年度第 91 架 F-35 飛機，實現了 2018 年的目標，比 2017 年的交付量增加了 25 架，增長了近 40%。

Notably, of the 91 airplanes delivered last year, 37 were for international partners and Foreign Military Sales customers, evidence of the growing global interest in this fifth-generation fighter.

值得注意的是，在去年交付的 91 架飛機中，有 37 架是為國際合作夥伴和外國軍售客戶提供的，這證明了全球對這款第五代戰鬥機的興趣與日俱增。

In October, we were very pleased to learn that the Belgian Ministry of Defense selected the F-35 aircraft for its future fighter acquisition program.

10 月，我們非常高興地獲悉比利時國防部為其未來的戰機採購計劃選擇了 F-35 飛機。

With this selection, Belgium becomes the 13th nation to join the F-35 program of record, with the planned buy of 34 conventional takeoff and landing or CTOL models.

通過這一選擇，比利時成為第 13 個加入 F-35 記錄計劃的國家，計劃購買 34 架常規起降或 CTOL 型號。

Lockheed Martin is honored by the Belgian government's selection of the F-35 for their future national security needs, building on our long-running strategic partnership with the Belgian Air Force and their legacy fleet of F-16 Fighting Falcons.

洛克希德·馬丁公司很榮幸比利時政府選擇 F-35 來滿足他們未來的國家安全需求，這建立在我們與比利時空軍及其傳統 F-16 戰隼機隊的長期戰略夥伴關係之上。

We look forward to continuing this relationship and helping to provide long-term capability for the Belgian military.

我們期待繼續這種關係並幫助為比利時軍隊提供長期能力。

In addition, Japan's National Security Council and Cabinet signaled continued support for the F-35, authorizing acquisition of 105 additional jets, adding to the 42 aircraft already approved.

此外，日本國家安全委員會和內閣表示繼續支持 F-35，授權購買 105 架額外的噴氣式飛機，增加已批准的 42 架飛機。

The Japanese F-35 plan includes, for the first time, acquisition of 42 short takeoff and vertical landing or STOVL variants.

日本 F-35 計劃首次包括採購 42 架短距起飛和垂直著陸或 STOVL 變體。

And the 147 total aircraft procurement will make Japan the largest international customer for this unrivaled fifth-generation fighter.

而 147 架飛機的總採購量將使日本成為這款無與倫比的第五代戰鬥機的最大國際客戶。

And just a week ago, the Republic of Singapore's defense minister announced the selection of F-35 as the aircraft most suitable to be their country's next-generation fighter.

而就在一周前，新加坡共和國國防部長宣布選擇F-35作為最適合作為該國下一代戰鬥機的飛機。

Singapore will initiate the process to procure a small number of jets to fully evaluate the capabilities of the plane, after which will follow a decision as to the best approach to replace their legacy F-16 feet.

新加坡將啟動採購少量噴氣式飛機的程序，以全面評估飛機的能力，之後將決定更換其傳統 F-16 英尺的最佳方法。

We are honored to be selected at this time and look forward to supporting the Republic of Singapore Air Force during this process.

我們很榮幸在這個時候被選中，並期待在這個過程中支持新加坡共和國空軍。

Several of our original F-35 partners also celebrated key milestones this quarter.

我們最初的幾個 F-35 合作夥伴也在本季度慶祝了重要的里程碑。

Australia welcomed the arrival of its first 2 F-35 conventional takeoff and landing aircraft at Royal Australian Air Force Base Williamtown, the site of Australia's first operational squadron.

澳大利亞歡迎其第一架 F-35 常規起降飛機抵達澳大利亞皇家空軍基地威廉敦，該基地是澳大利亞第一個作戰中隊的所在地。

Australia becomes the seventh nation with F-35 aircraft based on their home soil, ushering in a new era for their nation's defensive capabilities.

澳大利亞成為第七個在本國擁有 F-35 飛機的國家，開啟了本國防禦能力的新紀元。

And both Italy and the United Kingdom have now declared their respective fleets of F-35 combat-ready, with the Italian Air Force declaring initial operational capability for their squadron of CTOL variants in late November, and the U.K. declaring IOC for their STOVL variants earlier this month.

意大利和英國現在都宣佈各自的 F-35 機隊準備就緒，意大利空軍在 11 月下旬宣布其 CTOL 變體中隊的初始作戰能力，英國早些時候宣布其 STOVL 變體的 IOC這個月。

With these announcements, we have now seen 4 countries declare the F-35 ready for frontline operations, demonstrating the maturity and momentum of the Joint Strike Fighter program.

通過這些公告，我們現在已經看到 4 個國家宣布 F-35 已準備好投入前線作戰，這表明聯合攻擊戰鬥機計劃的成熟度和勢頭。

In Missiles and Fire Control, our tactical and strike missiles team delivered their first long-range anti-ship missile, or LRASM, precision-guided missile to U.S. operational units, thereby achieving early operational capability status ahead of the program scheduled.

在導彈和火控方面，我們的戰術和打擊導彈團隊向美國作戰部隊交付了他們的第一枚遠程反艦導彈或 LRASM 精確制導導彈，從而在計劃計劃之前實現了早期作戰能力狀態。

This milestone follows an intense integration and test phase, which culminated in the air launch LRASM variant successfully completing multiple tests from a U.S. Air Force B-1 Lancer bomber, demonstrating our ability to rapidly deliver crucial capabilities to our war fighters.

這一里程碑是在一個密集的集成和測試階段之後進行的，最終導致空中發射 LRASM 變體成功完成了美國空軍 B-1 Lancer 轟炸機的多項測試，展示了我們快速為我們的作戰人員提供關鍵能力的能力。

The LRASM program represents a long-term strategic opportunity, and we are excited to have begun the journey with our first delivery.

LRASM 計劃代表了一個長期的戰略機遇，我們很高興能夠通過我們的第一次交付開始這一旅程。

In our Rotary and Mission Systems business area, we were very pleased to be selected by the Royal Canadian Navy as a member of Canada's combat ship team to be the preferred bidder to begin design work for the future fleet of Canadian Surface Combatant ships.

在我們的旋轉和任務系統業務領域，我們很高興被加拿大皇家海軍選為加拿大作戰艦艇團隊的成員，成為開始為加拿大水面作戰艦艇未來艦隊設計工作的首選投標人。

Lockheed Martin Canada will be the combat system's integrator and provide the combat management system we originally developed for the Royal Canadian Navy's Halifax-Class ships, providing important technology to help deliver a bow to stern digitally designed warship.

洛克希德馬丁加拿大公司將成為戰鬥系統的集成商，並提供我們最初為加拿大皇家海軍的哈利法克斯級艦艇開發的戰鬥管理系統，提供重要的技術來幫助為數字設計的軍艦提供船首。

A total of 15 ships are planned to be built to replace Canada's Iroquois-class destroyers and Halifax-Class frigates, and will form the backbone of Canada's maritime combat power for decades to come.

計劃建造15艘艦艇，以取代加拿大的易洛魁級驅逐艦和哈利法克斯級護衛艦，將成為加拿大未來幾十年海上作戰力量的中堅力量。

The Canadian Surface Combatant program is the largest defense project ever undertaken by the government of Canada, and when completed, the RMS team could see orders totaling approximately USD 7 billion for their role in this effort.

加拿大水面戰艦計劃是加拿大政府有史以來最大的國防項目，完成後，RMS 團隊在這項工作中的作用可能會收到總計約 70 億美元的訂單。

I'll close with our Space business area, and a truly historic event.

我將以我們的太空業務領域結束，這是一個真正具有歷史意義的事件。

The NASA InSight Mars lander, designed and built by Lockheed Martin's Space engineers, made a dramatic entry and descent through the Martian atmosphere and successfully touched down on the surface of the Red Planet.

由洛克希德·馬丁公司的太空工程師設計和建造的美國宇航局洞察號火星著陸器在火星大氣層中進行了一次戲劇性的進入和下降，並成功降落在這顆紅色星球的表面。

Over the course of 6.5 minutes, the InSight lander went from a speed of 12,300 miles per hour to a gentle landing in the equatorial region of Mars.

在 6.5 分鐘的過程中，洞察號著陸器從每小時 12,300 英里的速度平穩降落在火星赤道地區。

The robotic explorer has now begun its task of studying the interior of the planet, its crust, mantle and core with the goal of better understanding the geologic evolution of Mars as well as other terrestrial planets.

機器人探險家現在已經開始研究地球內部、地殼、地幔和核心的任務，目的是更好地了解火星和其他類地行星的地質演化。

The InSight Mars lander is the latest in the long Lockheed Martin heritage of participating in NASA and Mars programs dating back to 1976 and the Viking mission, and we are honored to have played a significant role in this and all 10 preceding NASA missions to Mars.

InSight Mars 著陸器是洛克希德·馬丁公司自 1976 年以來參與 NASA 和火星計劃以及維京任務的悠久傳統中的最新產品，我們很榮幸在此次和之前的 10 次 NASA 火星任務中發揮了重要作用。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Bruce.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給布魯斯。

Thanks, Marillyn, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，瑪麗蓮，大家早上好。

As I highlight our key financial accomplishments, please follow along with the web charts that we included with our earnings release today.

當我強調我們的主要財務成就時，請關注我們今天發布的財報中包含的網絡圖表。

Let's begin with Chart 3 and an overview of our results for the year.

讓我們從圖表 3 和我們今年的業績概覽開始。

Both our sales and segment operating profit continued to exceed our expectations as we closed out the year.

隨著我們結束這一年，我們的銷售和分部營業利潤繼續超出我們的預期。

Sales were $53.8 billion for the year, while segment operating profit was nearly $5.9 billion, about $800 million and $100 million higher, respectively, then when we spoke in October, and this helped drive earnings per share to $17.59, also above over last outlook.

今年的銷售額為 538 億美元，而分部營業利潤接近 59 億美元，分別比我們在 10 月份講話時高出約 8 億美元和 1 億美元，這有助於將每股收益推高至 17.59 美元，也高於上次展望。

We generated $3.1 billion in cash from operations after contributing $5 billion in pension contributions.

在繳納了 50 億美元的養老金繳款後，我們從運營中產生了 31 億美元的現金。

Operating cash flow was slightly below our expectations as a number of invoices were not paid until the beginning of 2019, taking longer to pay than our history would've led us to expect.

運營現金流略低於我們的預期，因為許多發票直到 2019 年初才支付，支付時間比我們歷史預期的要長。

As a result of this carryover and continued strong cash performance, we have increased our cash guidance for 2019 above the outlook we provided in October and will discuss this in more detail in later charts.

由於這種結轉和持續強勁的現金表現，我們將 2019 年的現金指引上調至高於 10 月份提供的前景，並將在以後的圖表中更詳細地討論這一點。

We returned $3.8 billion of cash to our stockholders, $2.3 billion in dividends and $1.5 billion in share repurchases.

我們向股東返還了 38 億美元的現金、23 億美元的股息和 15 億美元的股票回購。

Our repurchase amount was higher than planned for the year as we opportunistically increased our buybacks in the fourth quarter as overall equity markets declined so we could capitalize on the reduced share price of Lockheed Martin as we closed out the year.

我們的回購金額高於今年的計劃，因為隨著整體股市下跌，我們在第四季度機會性地增加了回購，因此我們可以利用洛克希德馬丁公司在今年結束時股價下跌的機會。

And finally, but perhaps more importantly, we achieved a record level for backlog at year-end, finishing at over $130 billion.

最後，但也許更重要的是，我們在年底達到了創紀錄的積壓水平，超過 1300 億美元。

So we had a very strong finish to the year, and we're well positioned to carry that momentum into 2019.

因此，我們在今年取得了非常強勁的成績，我們已做好準備將這種勢頭延續到 2019 年。

Turning to Chart 4, we compare our sales and segment operating profit in 2018 with our performance in 2017.

轉到圖 4，我們將 2018 年的銷售和分部營業利潤與 2017 年的業績進行了比較。

Sales grew 8% for the year, while segment operating profit grew by 15% for the year, both finishing at record levels, and all 4 business areas grew in both metrics as we'll show in the next couple of charts.

全年銷售額增長 8%，分部營業利潤增長 15%，均達到創紀錄水平，所有 4 個業務領域的兩個指標均實現增長，我們將在接下來的幾張圖表中展示。

On Chart 5, we show the sales growth for the year by business area.

在圖 5 中，我們按業務領域顯示了當年的銷售額增長情況。

Missiles and Fire Control had the strongest growth in 2018 at 16%, driven by continued tactical and strike missile growth along with increases in the air Missile Defense portfolio.

導彈和火控在 2018 年的增長最為強勁，達到 16%，這得益於戰術和打擊導彈的持續增長以及空中導彈防禦組合的增加。

Aeronautics grew by 9% for the year with F-35 providing most of that growth, while the Skunk Works and F-16 program also contributed to the increase, more than offsetting reductions in the C-5 program as we competed the RERP program in 2018.

航空業全年增長了 9%，其中 F-35 提供了大部分增長，而臭鼬工廠和 F-16 計劃也促成了增長，超過了我們在競爭 RERP 計劃時抵消了 C-5 計劃的減少。 2018 年。

Both RMS and Space had low single-digit increases in sales for the year, with the RMS growth driven by the Integrated Warfare Systems And Sensors line of business, while the Space growth came from a strategic and Missile Defense line of business.

RMS 和 Space 在本年度的銷售額均實現了低個位數增長，RMS 增長由集成作戰系統和傳感器業務線推動，而 Space 增長來自戰略和導彈防禦業務線。

On Chart 6, we compare segment operating profit by business area in 2018 versus our results in 2017.

在圖 6 中，我們比較了 2018 年各業務領域的分部營業利潤與 2017 年的業績。

Here, RMS had the largest increase in operating profit, 44% higher than last year.

在這裡，RMS 的營業利潤增幅最大，比去年高出 44%。

This increase was due to improved performance across the Sikorsky portfolio as well as the absence of a charge taken last year on the EDGE-T program.

這一增長是由於西科斯基產品組合的績效改善以及去年沒有對 EDGE-T 計劃收取費用。

Missiles and Fire Control grew operating profit by 21% due to improved performance in tactical and strike missiles and a number of sensor programs.

由於戰術和打擊導彈以及一些傳感器項目的性能提高，導彈和火控部門的營業利潤增長了 21%。

Space increased operating profit by 8% due to improved performance in both the commercial and government satellite lines of business, and Aero grew its operating profit by low single digits due to higher volume and improved performance on both F-35 production and sustainment contracts.

由於商業和政府衛星業務的業績改善，Space 的營業利潤增加了 8%，Aero 的營業利潤由於 F-35 生產和維持合同的產量增加和業績改善而增長了低個位數。

If you'll turn to Chart 7, we'll discuss the significant increase in earnings per share this year compared with last year.

如果您轉到圖 7，我們將討論今年每股收益與去年相比的顯著增長。

We ended the year with EPS of $17.59, an increase of roughly 33% over our 2017 EPS, after adding back $6.77 worth of net tax reform changes that negatively impacted last year's results.

在加上對去年業績產生負面影響的價值 6.77 美元的淨稅制改革變化後，我們以 17.59 美元的每股收益結束了這一年，比 2017 年的每股收益增長了約 33%。

Our results for the year included a negative impact of a noncash impairment and an international joint venture investment that reduced EPS by $0.29.

我們今年的業績包括非現金減值和國際合資企業投資的負面影響，這使每股收益減少了 0.29 美元。

The overall increase this year was driven by higher segment operating profit and a lower effective tax rate.

今年的整體增長是由較高的部門營業利潤和較低的有效稅率推動的。

Chart 8 shows the increase in backlog over last year's amount to a record level of $130 billion.

圖 8 顯示，與去年相比，積壓訂單增加至創紀錄的 1300 億美元。

Backlog grew nearly 25%, driven by a book-to-bill ratio of 1.5 for the year, with Aeronautics having the largest increase, but all 4 business areas grew backlog in the year.

受全年訂單出貨比 1.5 的推動，積壓量增長近 25%，其中航空業增幅最大，但所有 4 個業務領域的積壓量均在年內有所增長。

Chart 9 provides our outlook for the expected performance and key financial metrics in 2019.

圖 9 提供了我們對 2019 年預期業績和關鍵財務指標的展望。

Our sales guidance of $55.75 billion to $57.25 billion is higher at the midpoint than the high end of the range we provided during the October call and implies 5% growth over our 2018 results.

我們 557.5 億美元至 572.5 億美元的銷售指導在中點高於我們在 10 月電話會議期間提供的範圍的高端，這意味著比我們 2018 年的業績增長 5%。

Segment operating profit at the midpoint also implies a margin at the high end of the range that we gave in October.

中點的部門營業利潤也意味著我們在 10 月份給出的範圍的高端的利潤率。

Our net FAS/CAS pension adjustment of $1.475 billion is $25 million lower than we estimated last quarter, and we'll discuss the drivers of the change in a couple of charts.

我們的 FAS/CAS 養老金淨調整額為 14.75 億美元，比我們上一季度的估計低 2500 萬美元，我們將在幾張圖表中討論這一變化的驅動因素。

Our EPS from continuing operations is expected to be in the $19.15 to $19.45 range, nearly 10% higher than our results in 2018.

我們的持續經營業務每股收益預計在 19.15 美元至 19.45 美元之間，比我們 2018 年的業績高出近 10%。

And we expect cash from operations will be equal to or greater than $7.4 billion, recognizing both the invoices that carried over into 2019 from 2018, and an improved outlook from the business areas for the year.

我們預計運營現金將等於或超過 74 億美元，同時確認從 2018 年延續到 2019 年的發票，以及今年業務領域前景的改善。

Chart 10 shows the expected business area ranges for both sales and segment operating profit for the year.

圖 10 顯示了本年度銷售和分部營業利潤的預期業務範圍範圍。

Missiles and Fire Control is again expected to be our fastest growing business area with around 10% growth over 2018, while Aeronautics is expected to grow in the high single-digit level.

導彈和火控預計將再次成為我們增長最快的業務領域，比 2018 年增長約 10%，而航空預計將以高個位數增長。

RMS and Space are both expected to have slight increases over their 2018 results.

RMS 和 Space 預計都將比 2018 年的業績略有增長。

Margins for the business areas are roughly comparable to our performance in 2018, except for Space, which is impacted this year by lower equity earnings at ULA, as we discussed on the last call.

業務領域的利潤率與我們在 2018 年的表現大致相當，除了 Space，正如我們在上次電話會議上討論的那樣，今年受到 ULA 股權收益下降的影響。

On Chart 11, we provide a comparison of our net FAS/CAS adjustment and our current outlook compared with the preliminary review we provided in October.

在圖 11 中，我們將我們的 FAS/CAS 調整淨額和我們當前的展望與我們在 10 月份提供的初步審查進行了比較。

The return on plan assets during 2018 was negative 5% versus a positive 1% return when we spoke in October, reflecting the large reductions in equity returns that occurred between October and the end of the year, and this change in our return lowered the adjustment by $120 million.

2018 年計劃資產回報率為負 5%，而我們在 10 月發言時為正 1%，這反映了 10 月至年底之間股票回報率的大幅下降，而我們回報率的這種變化降低了調整1.2億美元。

The discount rate used to value our liabilities increased slightly to 4.25%, and this results in a $60 million improvement.

用於對我們的負債進行估值的貼現率略微提高至 4.25%，這導致了 6000 萬美元的改善。

Other actuarial updates to the plan primarily a revised longevity expectation, contributed to a $35 million of improvement.

該計劃的其他精算更新主要是對壽命預期的修訂，促成了 3500 萬美元的改進。

All told, these updates lower the FAS/CAS adjustment by $25 million to our new expectation of $1.475 billion.

總而言之，這些更新將 FAS/CAS 調整降低了 2500 萬美元，低於我們新預期的 14.75 億美元。

And finally, at the bottom the chart, we mention 2 pension risk mitigation transactions that we completed in December, but have no significant impact on either our financial results in 2018 or our projections for 2019, and we'll describe these transactions in more detail on the next chart.

最後，在圖表底部，我們提到了我們在 12 月完成的 2 筆養老金風險緩解交易，但對我們 2018 年的財務業績或 2019 年的預測沒有重大影響，我們將更詳細地描述這些交易在下一張圖表上。

Chart 12 summarizes the 2 pension transactions that occurred in December.

圖 12 總結了 12 月發生的 2 筆養老金交易。

These transactions are transferring the responsibility for pension obligations for around $41,000 or a little more than 25% of our current retirees to 2 insurers.

這些交易正在將大約 41,000 美元或略高於我們目前退休人員 25% 的養老金義務的責任轉移給 2 家保險公司。

There is no change in the timing or amount of pension payments to our retirees, but with the transfer, we've eliminated all volatility associated with $2.5 billion of current pension obligations.

向我們的退休人員支付養老金的時間或金額沒有變化，但通過轉移，我們消除了與 25 億美元當前養老金義務相關的所有波動。

We had favorable pricing on the transfer, and we immediately see a $25 million per year reduction in our PBGC premiums going forward.

我們對轉讓有有利的定價，我們立即看到我們的 PBGC 保費每年減少 2500 萬美元。

And we have the option to settle around $800 million of planned liabilities with the U.S. Government at a future date, which would accelerate CAS prepayments into the year of settlement, increasing our cash from operations in that year by the amount of the CAS acceleration.

而且我們可以選擇在未來某個日期與美國政府結清約 8 億美元的計劃負債，這將加速 CAS 預付款進入結算年度，使我們在該年的運營現金增加 CAS 加速金額。

So we think this creates a win-win situation, providing the same benefits to our retirees going forward, while reducing future volatility for the business and our customers.

因此，我們認為這創造了一個雙贏的局面，為我們的退休人員提供了同樣的福利，同時減少了企業和客戶未來的波動。

And finally, on Chart 13, we have our summary.

最後，在圖 13 中，我們得到了總結。

2018 was an outstanding year for both operational and financial performance.

2018 年是運營和財務表現出色的一年。

We're very pleased with the record backlog that we achieved last year and that all 4 business areas contributed to that record level.

我們對去年實現的創紀錄的積壓工作感到非常滿意，並且所有 4 個業務領域都為這一創紀錄水平做出了貢獻。

And we're very excited to continue to deliver growth and long-term value creation in 2019 and beyond.

我們很高興能夠在 2019 年及以後繼續實現增長和長期價值創造。

With that, we're ready for questions.

有了這個，我們準備好提問了。

John?.

約翰？。

(Operator Instructions) First from the line of Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）首先來自高盛的 Noah Poponak。

Bruce, many congrats to you.

布魯斯，非常祝賀你。

It was great working with you.

和你一起工作真是太好了。

And Ken, welcome onboard.

還有肯，歡迎加入。

Bruce, so with the cash flow guidance for 2019, it looks like it's maybe slightly better operationally than you thought before.

布魯斯，所以根據 2019 年的現金流指導，它的運營看起來可能比你以前想像的要好一些。

And then you had the slippage out of 2018.

然後你就滑出了 2018 年。

So one, is that true that it's a little better operationally?

那麼，它在操作上是否更好一點是真的嗎？

And then two, I guess for year-over-year into 2020, you previously had a placeholder of something in the zone of flat.

然後是兩個，我猜到 2020 年，你以前在平坦區域有一個佔位符。

Can you still be flat to slightly up in 2020 even with the working capital lift that I guess is specific to '19?

即使我猜想是 19 年特有的營運資金提升，你還能在 2020 年保持平穩或略微上升嗎？

And then may be update us, I think you previously said on '21 when the pension contribution comes back online that you saw enough working capital opportunity to offset that and grow cash flow again.

然後可能會更新我們，我認為您之前在 21 年說過，當養老金繳款重新上線時，您看到了足夠的營運資金機會來抵消這一點並再次增加現金流。

Is that still the case?

還是這樣嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So let me dive into that, I think they're 3-parter there, Noah.

所以讓我深入探討一下，我認為他們在那裡是三人組，諾亞。

Trying to get it in before you go.

試著在你去之前把它弄進去。

That was very good of you.

你真是太好了。

So yes, we are operationally seeing improved cash from operations in 2019.

所以，是的，我們在運營上看到 2019 年的運營現金有所改善。

Part of that is simply because we're having higher profits from the business areas in the form of segment operating profit, and we would expect to recover some of that in terms of cash in 2019.

部分原因僅僅是因為我們以部門營業利潤的形式從業務領域獲得了更高的利潤，我們預計會在 2019 年以現金形式收回部分利潤。

So it's a combination, just as you described it.

所以這是一個組合，就像你描述的那樣。

The carryover in invoices, call it, $250 million or so, plus some improvement in operations from the business areas making up the difference to get to $400 million.

發票的結轉，稱之為 2.5 億美元左右，加上業務領域的一些改進，彌補了差額達到 4 億美元。

You asked about 2020, flat to up.

你問的是 2020 年，持平到上升。

I'd say, we're still seeing the outlook for probably both 2020 and 2021 in the $7 billion -- at least $7 billion or greater range.

我想說，我們仍然認為 2020 年和 2021 年的前景可能在 70 億美元——至少 70 億美元或更高的範圍內。

We've had a little bit of pressure, as you might expect, because of the lower performance of our pension plan.

正如您所料，我們有一點壓力，因為我們的養老金計劃表現不佳。

So just like everyone else from October to December as I described in my prepared remarks, the pension trust went from a slightly positive return to a 5% negative.

因此，就像我在準備好的講話中所描述的那樣，從 10 月到 12 月，養老金信託基金的回報率從略微正數變為 5% 負數。

But if you take a look at the total change in expectations of assets to asset return to where we ended up, that's a pretty big miss.

但是，如果您看一下資產預期對資產回報率的總體變化到我們最終達到的水平，那將是一個很大的失誤。

And so we'll have some continued higher ERISA payments that start to kick in in about the 2020 time frame, higher than what we talked about on the last call, and higher still than what we talked about I think on the last call, in 2021.

因此，我們將在 2020 年左右開始支付一些持續更高的 ERISA 付款，高於我們在上次電話會議中討論的金額，並且仍然高於我在上次電話會議中討論的金額，在2021 年。

Even with those higher ERISA contribution to sort of refill the pension trust for the asset performance last year, we still expect to achieve another $7 billion-plus in each of those payments -- or in each of those years, excuse me, going forward.

即使有更高的 ERISA 貢獻來為去年的資產表現補充養老金信託，我們仍然預計每筆付款將再實現 70 億美元以上 - 或者在每一年，對不起，繼續前進。

And that is a reflection, Noah, to your question of improved performance in working capital as well as the higher segment operating profit and return of cash resulting from that in the next couple of years.

諾亞，這反映了您關於改善營運資本績效以及未來幾年由此產生的更高部門營業利潤和現金回報的問題。

Our next question is from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Congratulations, Bruce.

恭喜，布魯斯。

Thank you, Sheila.

謝謝你，希拉。

Just on the F-35, there's clear signs that it's growing and there is continued growth in the program.

僅在 F-35 上，就有明顯的跡象表明它正在增長，而且該項目還在持續增長。

How do we maybe think about the cadence of that 400 aircraft conversion?

我們如何看待 400 架飛機改裝的節奏？

And maybe the profit curve on that program, given international and it's a block buy versus the multiyear.

也許是該計劃的利潤曲線，考慮到國際化，它是一個大宗購買與多年期的對比。

Okay.

好的。

Everyone is going to do 3-parters this time.

這次每個人都要做三人組。

So yes, F-35's got a real good cadence.

所以是的，F-35 的節奏非常好。

I thought it was really interesting to listen to Marillyn talk about the fact that we got more aircraft at the end of the year in terms of backlog than we delivered since the inception of the program.

我認為聽瑪麗蓮談論我們在年底積壓的飛機數量超過了自計劃啟動以來交付的飛機這一事實真的很有趣。

That's a -- just thinking about that, that's a big number.

這是一個 - 只是想一想，這是一個很大的數字。

And that reflected for the block buy getting, call it, 250 aircraft worth of sort of advance payment, and that was the large award that we booked in the fourth quarter.

這反映了整體購買獲得，稱之為，價值 250 架飛機的預付款，這是我們在第四季度預訂的大筆獎勵。

But it's only, what, 250 out of what we expect out of 12, 13 and 14 to be, which is closer to about 400 -- call it 475 to 480 aircraft.

但這只是我們預計的 12 架、13 架和 14 架飛機中的 250 架，接近 400 架——稱之為 475 到 480 架飛機。

So we would expect over time to get those higher quantities of aircraft, and you'll see that reflect in the backlog going forward.

因此，我們預計隨著時間的推移會獲得更多數量的飛機，你會在未來的積壓中看到這一點。

You will also see, Sheila, growth in our expected deliveries going forward from 91 this year to about 131 -- I said 91 this year, 91 in 2018 to about 131 next year.

希拉，你還會看到，我們的預期交付量將從今年的 91 輛增長到 131 輛左右——我說的是今年的 91 輛，2018 年的 91 輛到明年的 131 輛左右。

And that number will grow slightly higher in 2020 and slightly higher still in 2021, at least, that's the expectation until we actually get north of 160 deliveries in 2021.

至少，這個數字在 2020 年將略高，在 2021 年還會略高，這是我們在 2021 年實際交付超過 160 台之前的預期。

So good continuing ramp up there.

如此良好的持續增長。

You asked about margins, we see -- we had good performance in 2018, and we expect to see, especially on the production program, some continued good performance.

你問到利潤率，我們看到——我們在 2018 年有良好的表現，我們希望看到，特別是在生產計劃上，一些持續的良好表現。

I would expect margins to may be increase 50-plus basis points over what we saw in 2018 as we sort of get to a more steady state of what we expect to have, as we've talked about for quite some time of margins similar to our experience on other production programs in our portfolio, including F-16, F-22 and C-130s and the like.

我預計利潤率可能會比我們在 2018 年看到的水平增加 50 多個基點，因為我們會達到預期的更穩定狀態，因為我們已經討論了相當長一段時間的利潤率類似於我們在我們產品組合中的其他生產項目方面的經驗，包括 F-16、F-22 和 C-130 等。

And the only thing I might offer up, Sheila, is we're seeing production growth, as I talked about, with the quantities of aircraft, but we're also seeing some pretty significant sustainment growth.

希拉，我唯一可以提供的是，正如我所說，隨著飛機數量的增加，我們看到了產量的增長，但我們也看到了一些相當顯著的持續增長。

And I think I said this on the last call, somewhat surprisingly, actually on a percentage basis, the fastest growing part of the F-35 program is actually development programs.

我想我在上次電話會議上說過這句話，有點令人驚訝的是，實際上按百分比計算，F-35 項目中增長最快的部分實際上是開發項目。

And that's because we're starting to get modifications of the aircraft, some international peculiar updates for improvements going forward.

那是因為我們開始對飛機進行修改，一些國際上的特殊更新以進行改進。

And so that's actually growing as well.

所以這實際上也在增長。

And as I think I said on prior calls, while that's typically cost reimbursable, and therefore, lower margin overall than the program that's still good work that leads to future production and/or sustainment work going forward.

正如我認為我在之前的電話會議上所說的那樣，雖然這通常是可以報銷的，因此總體利潤率低於仍然是良好工作的項目，可以導致未來的生產和/或維持工作向前發展。

So program is in a very good positon right now, and on a strong cadence as we ended 2018 and going into 2019.

因此，該計劃目前處於非常好的位置，並且隨著我們結束 2018 年並進入 2019 年，節奏強勁。

Our next question is from Jon Raviv with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Jon Raviv。

Yes, Bruce, can you touch a little bit on the -- just on -- kind of related to Noah's question in terms of cash sustainability.

是的，布魯斯，你能不能稍微談談 - 就 - 與諾亞在現金可持續性方面的問題有關。

Obviously, cash recovery is a big piece of that operating cash flow, that $7 billion, just given what you know has happened in '18?

顯然，現金回收是經營現金流的很大一部分，即 70 億美元，就您所知道的 18 年發生的情況而言？

Now any update on the shape of that CAS number going forward?

現在關於這個 CAS 號碼的形狀有什麼更新嗎？

How long is it with us -- start to really roll off there?

與我們在一起多久——真正開始在那裡滾滾？

Yes.

是的。

So thanks for the question, John.

所以謝謝你的問題，約翰。

So we've talked about in the past that whenever there is a change in expectations relative to our performance, and we're more sensitive, I think I said it in the past, as we sit here today on asset returns than we are on discount rates with our pension financials going forward.

因此，我們過去曾討論過，每當相對於我們的表現的預期發生變化，並且我們更加敏感時，我想我過去曾說過，因為我們今天坐在這裡的資產回報率比我們現在未來我們的養老金財務狀況的貼現率。

So because we were short of our expectations in 2018, you'll see a slight increase in the near term of CAS to essentially recoup that shortage in our expectations over time.

因此，由於我們在 2018 年沒有達到我們的預期，你會看到 CAS 的短期內略有增加，以隨著時間的推移從根本上彌補我們預期的不足。

Unfortunately, ERISA requires an earlier contribution.

不幸的是，ERISA 需要更早的貢獻。

Even after we've had CAS harmonization, you should still think of CAS recovery on our contracts takes longer to occur than the ERISA contributions.

即使在我們進行了 CAS 協調之後，您仍然應該認為我們合同中的 CAS 恢復需要比 ERISA 貢獻更長的時間。

And that's the comment that I was making earlier to Noah, about a little bit of higher ERISA contributions in the near term.

這就是我早些時候對諾亞的評論，關於近期內更高的 ERISA 貢獻。

But to your question, Jon, CAS will -- I think in '18, we're about $2.4 billion, call it, a little more than that.

但是對於你的問題，喬恩，CAS 將 - 我認為在 18 年，我們大約有 24 億美元，稱之為，比這多一點。

I would think CAS, at the new levels based on our performance in 2018, will probably stay at the, call it $2.5 billion, I think we're a little higher than that, level of CAS reimbursements in 2019.

我認為，根據我們 2018 年的表現，CAS 在新的水平上可能會保持在 25 億美元，我認為我們會比 2019 年的 CAS 報銷水平高一點。

And then it sort of stays that way in '20, '21, '22, and then current course and speed, if you continue to get 7% returns on the assets going forward, we would expect to see a significant reduction in CAS costing and CAS recoveries from '22 to, call it, 2026 and beyond to a very, very steep downslope in terms of CAS reductions there.

然後它會在 20 年、21 年、22 年保持這種狀態，然後是當前的路線和速度，如果你繼續獲得 7% 的資產回報率，我們預計 CAS 成本會顯著降低CAS 從 22 年到 2026 年及以後恢復到 CAS 減少的非常非常陡峭的下降。

So sort of not much change in the next 3, 4 years, and then if we continue on the current course and speed or we do better on asset returns going forward, then we would expect to see a pretty good size reduction in that.

因此，在接下來的 3 年、4 年內變化不大，然後如果我們繼續當前的路線和速度，或者我們在未來的資產回報方面做得更好，那麼我們預計會看到相當不錯的規模縮減。

You'd also expect to see at a quicker pace, a reduction in the ERISA contributions because ERISA is spread over a shorter period of time to sort of recoup the asset return miss we had in 2018 than is the CAS spread, if you will.

你還希望看到 ERISA 的貢獻以更快的速度減少，因為 ERISA 分佈在更短的時間內，以彌補我們在 2018 年的資產回報率損失，而不是 CAS 分佈，如果你願意的話。

CAS is spread longer to recoup that.

CAS 的傳播時間更長以彌補這一點。

Hope that helps, Jon.

希望有幫助，喬恩。

Our next question is from Ron Epstein with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

我們的下一個問題來自美銀美林的 Ron Epstein。

When you look at the backlog build, right, I guess a lot of that had to do with F-35.

當您查看積壓的構建時，對，我猜其中很多都與 F-35 有關。

And the year-end backlog was, I think probably a little bit above what you guys were thinking in Q3, right?

年終積壓是，我認為可能比你們在第三季度的想法略高，對吧？

And then I look at the guidance for the year, I mean how much conservatism is built in there?

然後我看看今年的指導意見，我的意思是那裡有多少保守主義？

Because it just looks like with that kind of backlog build that the revenue growth this year might be a little better.

因為看起來像這種積壓的工作，今年的收入增長可能會好一些。

I don't know, I'm just kind of throwing that one out there.

我不知道，我只是把那個扔在那裡。

Well, I guess if I was smart, I'd set Ken up for a bigger number than a lower number.

好吧，我想如果我很聰明，我會為肯設置一個更大的數字而不是一個較小的數字。

But I think we've got opportunities there, we talk about Missiles and Fire Control growing 10%.

但我認為我們在那裡有機會，我們談論導彈和火控增長 10%。

We talked about Aeronautics growing at the high single-digit.

我們談到了航空業以高個位數增長。

Space and RMS, a very slight growth.

空間和 RMS，有非常輕微的增長。

If there's one business area, I think, that might have some potential revenue upside, I would say it's probably RMS.

我認為，如果有一個業務領域可能有一些潛在的收入增長，我會說它可能是 RMS。

We sort of went into the year last year expecting RMS to be a little flattish, maybe a little bit of growth.

去年，我們有點預計 RMS 會有點平淡，也許會有一點增長。

And I think we ended up at 4% or so growth for the year, so we beat that pretty well.

我認為我們今年最終實現了 4% 左右的增長，所以我們做得很好。

I think there's a similar potential here.

我認為這裡也有類似的潛力。

We've got -- I'll tell you, we've got a lot of new start programs.

我們有——我會告訴你，我們有很多新的啟動計劃。

I mean I was looking at the list getting ready for the call, it's just staggering how many small, little, new start programs that could translate into large programs across all 4 business areas.

我的意思是我正在查看準備電話會議的列表，它只是驚人地顯示有多少可以轉化為所有 4 個業務領域的大型程序的小型新啟動程序。

So one of the sound bites I like more than anything is that while backlog grew for the corporation to record level, backlog grew at each of the 4 business areas.

因此，我最喜歡的一個聲音片段是，雖然公司的積壓工作增長到創紀錄的水平，但 4 個業務領域的積壓工作都在增長。

So this is very broad-based and very strong, not -- like, again, not so much in huge, big bite-sized chunks but a lot of smaller programs is really what's driving that.

所以這是非常廣泛且非常強大的，而不是 - 再次，不是大塊的，大塊的，而是許多較小的程序確實是推動它的原因。

And so to your question, Ron, I think we have some potential upside, but I don't -- I didn't purposely try to be ultraconservative in the revenue guidance.

所以對於你的問題，羅恩，我認為我們有一些潛在的上升空間，但我沒有——我沒有刻意在收入指導中保持極端保守。

I think that's why we provide the range, and I'd say the upside is potentially at the top of the range.

我認為這就是我們提供該範圍的原因，我認為上行空間可能位於該範圍的頂部。

I should have said -- maybe just to piggyback, I didn't answer, I think Sheila's last question on the multiyear, and that may be part of what you're asking about as well.

我應該說 - 也許只是為了背負，我沒有回答，我認為希拉關於多年的最後一個問題，這可能也是你所問問題的一部分。

But we would expect to see a multiyear agreement on the F-35 program probably sometime in the 2022 time frame.

但我們預計可能會在 2022 年的某個時候看到關於 F-35 計劃的多年協議。

So while we may see some slight backlog deterioration this year, because it's hard to replicate the large block buy order that we saw in 2018.

因此，雖然今年我們可能會看到一些輕微的積壓惡化，因為很難復制我們在 2018 年看到的大宗購買訂單。

We still expect to be probably north of $125 billion of backlog as we end the year.

到年底，我們仍然預計可能會超過 1250 億美元的積壓訂單。

And then that has the potential to grow from that level as we get into 2022 with the benefit of an F-35 block -- excuse me, multiyear.

然後，隨著我們進入 2022 年，得益於 F-35 塊的優勢，它有可能從那個水平增長——對不起，多年。

Our next question is from Rob Stallard with Vertical Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Rob Stallard。

Bruce, I'll spare you a pension question and just wish you all the best for your retirement.

布魯斯，我不會問你養老金問題，祝你退休後一切順利。

But Marilyn, I have one for you.

但是瑪麗蓮，我有一個給你。

On the F-35 front, there has been various press reports that the DoD could be flirting with an F-15 order.

在 F-35 方面，有各種新聞報導稱，國防部可能正在與 F-15 訂單調情。

And comments from the acting Secretary of Defense today seem to imply there could be some pressure perhaps ahead for you on pricing for the F-35.

今天代理國防部長的評論似乎暗示，在 F-35 的定價方面，您可能面臨一些壓力。

I was wondering if you could give us your thoughts on that.

我想知道你是否可以給我們你的想法。

I'd be happy to.

我很樂意。

In terms of the F-35, as we've outline clearly, I mean it's well supported across the board regardless of what other platforms the Department of Defense is looking at.

就 F-35 而言，正如我們已經清楚概述的那樣，我的意思是，無論國防部正在研究哪些其他平台，它都得到了全面的支持。

So if they choose to have an order on F-15, I don't -- it won't be as expensive as F-35 quantities.

因此，如果他們選擇訂購 F-15，我不會——它不會像 F-35 的數量那麼貴。

I mean I'm hearing that directly from leadership in the Pentagon.

我的意思是我直接從五角大樓的領導那裡聽到了這一點。

And I think that's an important point to make for you, not just our suspicion, but I've been told that directly.

我認為這對你來說很重要，不僅僅是我們的懷疑，而是直接告訴我的。

So I'm not concerned about that.

所以我對此並不擔心。

In terms of the pressure on the unit cost, we continue to have a focus collectively with the joint program office and with the Department of Defense on driving the price of the F-35 down and seeing the cost.

在單位成本壓力方面，我們繼續與聯合計劃辦公室和國防部共同關注壓低 F-35 的價格並查看成本。

We're on a path to drive it to an $80 million for the F-35A by full rate production when we're looking at 2023 deliveries of that aircraft and when we get in about 15 deliveries.

當我們考慮到 2023 年該飛機的交付以及大約 15 架交付時，我們正在通過全速生產將 F-35A 的價格提高到 8000 萬美元。

And so that's -- as long as we stay on our procurement rate plan, which by all accounts, we're going to continue to ramp up at the rate that we envision then we're going to continue to drive the price down, and that's our target, is to continue drive the unit cost down.

所以這就是 - 只要我們堅持我們的採購率計劃，從各方面來看，我們將繼續以我們設想的速度增加，然後我們將繼續降低價格，並且這是我們的目標，是繼續降低單位成本。

And we'll -- we won't stop there, we'll always be looking at ways that we can take cost down on the program as it continues to mature and grows.

我們將 - 我們不會止步於此，我們將一直在尋找可以降低該計劃成本的方法，因為它繼續成熟和發展。

Moreover, the total life cycle cost of the aircraft is coming down.

此外，飛機的總生命週期成本正在下降。

We're working on the sustainment element, which is always something that our customers are interesting in, not just the purchase price, but what does it cost to sustain the aircraft as it's operational and those costs are coming down at a good pace as well.

我們正在研究維持要素，這始終是我們的客戶感興趣的東西，不僅僅是購買價格，還有在飛機運行時維持飛機的成本是多少，而且這些成本也在以良好的速度下降.

And next we'll go to Myles Walton with UBS.

接下來我們將與瑞銀一起去邁爾斯沃爾頓。

One clarification and then one question.

一個澄清，然後一個問題。

So Bruce, you mentioned the headwind on ULA.

布魯斯，你提到了 ULA 的逆風。

I'm just curious, but it's still $150 million.

我只是好奇，但仍然是 1.5 億美元。

And then the question, may be for Marilyn, you're seeing the start of some of the first incremental customers come into the F-35 in quite some time.

然後問題可能是瑪麗蓮，你會看到一些第一批增量客戶在相當長的一段時間內開始使用 F-35。

Do you think there is actually pressure to the upside from these $160 million per year, probably planning rates that you've had for a number of years.

您認為每年 1.6 億美元是否真的有上行壓力，這可能是您多年來一直在計劃的利率。

I know you have gotten requests for something higher than that.

我知道你收到了比這更高的要求。

But at what point do you think there's reality behind some of those requests for pricing for upward of $180 million per year pricing?

但是，您認為其中一些要求每年定價超過 1.8 億美元的要求背後的現實是什麼時候？

Well, I'll take the first part.

好吧，我將採取第一部分。

You've got a good memory, Myles.

你的記性很好，邁爾斯。

We did talk, I think on the October call about as much as $150 million pressure from ULA year-over-year from 2018 to 2019.

我們確實談過，我認為在 10 月的電話會議上，從 2018 年到 2019 年，ULA 的壓力同比高達 1.5 億美元。

I think you should think of that closer to maybe like $100 million now.

我認為你現在應該考慮到接近 1 億美元。

And part of that is, we did get a little better outlook from ULA, but that's part of it.

其中一部分是，我們確實從 ULA 獲得了更好的前景，但這是其中的一部分。

But the bigger piece, quite honestly, was we actually had a launch vehicle that we had expected to deliver in the latter part of December, that for weather purposes and some other purposes, actually slipped into 2019.

但老實說，更大的部分是我們實際上有一個我們預計在 12 月下旬交付的運載火箭，用於天氣和其他一些目的，實際上滑到了 2019 年。

In fact, you might have seen, that was the first launch of the year.

事實上，您可能已經看到，那是今年的第一次發布。

It was actually an event that was supposed to have occurred last year.

這實際上是去年應該發生的事件。

So think of that launch carrying over and the profits associated with that launch vehicle also carrying over, which made that $150 million along with the improved performance expectations at ULA, cause the number to, like I said, probably be $100 million short of last year's ULA equity earnings amount.

因此，想想發射結轉以及與運載火箭相關的利潤也結轉，這使得 1.5 億美元以及 ULA 改進的業績預期，導致這個數字，就像我說的那樣，可能比去年少 1 億美元ULA 股權收益金額。

And I'll turn it over to Marillyn for the F-35 question.

我會把它交給 Marillyn 來回答 F-35 的問題。

Yes, and Myles, to your question about the growth in the international demand for the program.

是的，還有邁爾斯，回答您關於該計劃的國際需求增長的問題。

We're certainly seeing it, as I highlighted a few near-term things.

我們肯定會看到它，因為我強調了一些近期的事情。

But F-35 is in the competitions in Switzerland, in Finland, in Germany and whole range of countries that continue to look at it.

但 F-35 正在瑞士、芬蘭、德國和所有繼續關注它的國家參加比賽。

So we expect to continue to see growth in the international demand.

因此，我們預計國際需求將繼續增長。

Your question around can we increase the rate accordingly or so forth?,, I mean it's really too early to be too specific on that.

你的問題是我們可以相應地提高費率嗎？，我的意思是現在說得太具體還為時過早。

But over time, if we could see that could exceed the current program of record on the F-35, and that would open up the opportunity for us to produce more per year.

但隨著時間的推移，如果我們能看到這可能會超過 F-35 目前的記錄計劃，那將為我們提供每年生產更多產品的機會。

And we have the manufacturing capacity for over 180 aircraft per year.

我們擁有每年超過 180 架飛機的製造能力。

We'll still have to coordinate with the JPO, Joint Program Office, we'll still have to work with our supply chain and our international customers to really get the most effective plan possible.

我們仍需與 JPO 聯合項目辦公室進行協調，我們仍需與我們的供應鍊和國際客戶合作，才能真正獲得最有效的計劃。

But we could certainly go to a higher rate if the demand were such that we needed to do that.

但是，如果需求是我們需要這樣做的，我們當然可以提高利率。

So that's a good problem to have, and we look forward to that.

所以這是一個很好的問題，我們期待著。

Japan?

日本？

And also Japan.

還有日本。

Yes, I mentioned Japan.

是的，我提到了日本。

Earlier in there in my formal remarks about the increase there as they've already committed to another 105 aircraft.

早些時候，我在正式評論中提到了那裡的增加，因為他們已經承諾再增加 105 架飛機。

And we expect some of the existing customers to continue to increase their demand for the aircraft as well.

我們預計一些現有客戶也將繼續增加對飛機的需求。

Our next question is from Cai Von Rumohr with Cowen and Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Cai Von Rumohr。

Yes, Bruce, let me join the others and say, you've done absolutely terrific.

是的，布魯斯，讓我和其他人一起說，你做得非常棒。

And best of wishes in your retirement.

並祝您退休。

Thanks, Cai.

謝謝，蔡。

So in line with the 2-part question.

所以符合兩部分的問題。

Book to bill if you could comment a little bit by the outlook for the year and the sectors.

如果您可以對今年和行業的前景發表一些評論，請提前預訂。

And secondly, you said, as I understood it, that the F-35 had maybe 50 bps of margin upside.

其次，你說，據我所知，F-35 可能有 50 個基點的利潤上漲空間。

I thought that was in '19, and if so, where is the downside?

我以為那是在 19 年，如果是這樣，缺點在哪裡？

Because your aggregate guide shows Aeronautical margins relatively stable, maybe up 10 bps.

因為您的綜合指南顯示航空利潤率相對穩定，可能上漲 10 個基點。

Yes.

是的。

So let me -- I'll try to address both those for you, Cai.

所以讓我 - 我會盡力為你解決這兩個問題，蔡。

So book to bill, the 1.5, there was obviously the 2018 results.

因此，從 1.5 到帳單，顯然是 2018 年的結果。

The outlook for 2019, which I think is the heart of your question, we expect to have less orders in 2019, as you might expect, since we're not going to replicate the block buy order for F-35.

2019 年的前景，我認為這是你問題的核心，正如你所料，我們預計 2019 年的訂單會減少，因為我們不會復制 F-35 的大宗購買訂單。

But as I said in response to a previous question, I think backlog, if we're at a little more than $130 billion now, I think we drop, call it, $4 million or $5 million to may be $125 billion-plus.

但正如我在回答之前的問題時所說的那樣，我認為積壓，如果我們現在的金額略高於 1300 億美元，我認為我們會下降，稱之為 400 萬美元或 500 萬美元，可能超過 1250 億美元。

So we still expect to have a strong orders year in 2019.

因此，我們仍預計 2019 年的訂單量將強勁增長。

I think just for planning purposes, the things you should watch out for is we're hopeful to get pretty large THAAD order for both a combined buy from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as well as NDAA or ultimately to the U.S. Army in the first quarter.

我認為僅出於計劃目的，您應該注意的事情是，我們希望在第一季度從沙特阿拉伯王國和 NDAA 或最終向美國陸軍聯合購買相當大的 THAAD 訂單.

As it turns out, a little bit unusual compared to our pattern may be in prior years.

事實證明，與我們的模式相比，前幾年可能有點不尋常。

The second quarter is expected to be our largest order quarter, and that's in part because we'll start to -- or at least we expect to start to definitize the LRIP 12, 13 and 14, that was authorized by the block buy.

第二季度預計將是我們最大的訂單季度，這部分是因為我們將開始 - 或者至少我們希望開始定義由大宗購買授權的 LRIP 12、13 和 14。

This would be for just the LRIP 12 portion, and that definitization is a fairly good-sized number, call it north of $5 billion is the item there.

這僅適用於 LRIP 12 部分，並且該定義是一個相當大的數字，稱之為 50 億美元以北的項目就是那裡的項目。

As well as some other orders we expect there, for instance, we expect to get an order for 2 Orion vehicles in the second quarter as well.

例如，除了我們預期的其他一些訂單外，我們還希望在第二季度獲得 2 輛 Orion 車輛的訂單。

And maybe somewhat surprisingly, just given the size compared to years previously, the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System, 14, as we're calling it, is about a $1 billion order that we're looking to see potentially in the second quarter.

也許有點令人驚訝，只是考慮到與幾年前相比的規模，我們稱之為 14 的製導多發射火箭系統大約是 10 億美元的訂單，我們希望在第二季度看到潛在的訂單。

So a little different phasing, as I said, for the orders in 2019, still strong.

因此，正如我所說，對於 2019 年的訂單，階段性略有不同，仍然強勁。

Quite honestly, not a whole lot of competitive awards there, most of them are sort of sole sourced follow-on awards.

老實說，那裡的競爭性獎項並不多，其中大多數都是單一來源的後續獎項。

And without the benefit, as I said earlier, of the block buy behind us or the potential for a multiyear on F-35 in front of us.

正如我之前所說，沒有我們身後的大宗購買或我們面前的 F-35 多年的潛力的好處。

So hopefully, that helps with the orders and our expectation.

所以希望這有助於訂單和我們的期望。

F-35, the 50 basis points that I was talking about is my expectation of improvement on the F-35 program for 2019 margins compared to 2018 margins.

F-35，我所說的 50 個基點是我對 F-35 計劃 2019 年利潤率與 2018 年利潤率相比有所改善的預期。

A lot of that coming on the production program as we really are starting to kind of hit, as I said earlier, sort of cadence there.

正如我之前所說，製作計劃中的很多內容都開始受到影響，就像我之前所說的那樣，那裡有節奏。

And why that's offset, is part of what I said earlier, Cai, I mean literally, there's -- I think I'm literally writing down 15, 16 programs.

為什麼那是抵消，是我之前所說的一部分，蔡，我的意思是字面意思，有 - 我想我實際上是在寫下 15、16 個程序。

They're all smaller than the large programs that I'm talking about that have the margin increases, but we've got classified activity in 3 of the 4 business areas that's starting to get some traction.

它們都比我所說的利潤率增加的大型項目要小，但我們在 4 個業務領域中的 3 個業務領域開展了分類活動，這些業務領域開始受到關注。

Aeronautics is one of those where we have that.

航空是我們擁有的領域之一。

We have got Hypersonic's work in the Aeronautic so a lot of sort of new start programs, including, as I said earlier, we're having growth in the sustainment and the development program on the F-35 program, actually at a faster rate than the production rate is, and that's great news, but it does come with a slightly lower margin.

我們在航空領域得到了高超音速的工作，所以有很多新的啟動項目，包括，正如我之前所說，我們在 F-35 項目的維持和開發項目方面取得了增長，實際上增長速度比生產率是，這是個好消息，但它的利潤率確實略低。

So the combination of all the new starts, faster growing on some of the legacy stuff within the F-35 program with lower margins, that's the reason why you don't see the overall Aeronautics margin growing from its, sort of its level.

因此，所有新起點的結合，F-35 項目中一些遺留物的快速增長，利潤率較低，這就是為什麼你看不到整體航空利潤率從其水平增長的原因。

We're frankly happy with that, because that says we're sort of growing margin in the programs that you think should be growing margins, but we're getting the benefit of new programs, new start programs that have the potential to be the long-term growth engines of the corporation, and of course, those come with lower margins.

坦率地說，我們對此感到高興，因為這表明我們在您認為應該增加利潤的項目中的利潤率正在增長，但我們正在從新項目中受益，新的啟動項目有可能成為公司的長期增長引擎，當然還有利潤率較低的引擎。

And next we'll go to Pete Skibitski with Alembic Global Advisors.

接下來，我們將與 Alembic 全球顧問一起前往 Pete Skibitski。

Congrats, Bruce.

恭喜，布魯斯。

Thanks, Pete.

謝謝，皮特。

Marillyn, maybe a question about politics in D.C..

瑪麗蓮，也許是關於華盛頓政治的問題。

I feel like a lot of people are thinking that getting this kind of last 2-year resolution to the sequester might be maybe the most difficult compared to -- than we've had so far.

我覺得很多人都在想，與我們迄今為止所做的相比，獲得這種最後兩年的隔離措施可能是最困難的。

Would you agree with that?

你同意嗎？

Is it going to be a challenge just kind of given where the parties are at?

考慮到各方所處的位置，這將是一個挑戰嗎？

Or I know recently some of the -- both parties that are directly involved on the defense committee seemed to be a little bit more optimistic.

或者我知道最近一些——直接參與辯護委員會的雙方似乎都比較樂觀。

Where do you kind of come down there?

你是從哪裡下來的？

And how are you thinking about timing on that?

你如何考慮時間安排？

Yes, that's a great question.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。

I wish I had a crystal ball to answer it, but I would just say that, we, as you know, predominance of our U.S. Government business is the Defense business.

我希望我有一個水晶球來回答這個問題，但我只想說，如你所知，我們美國政府業務的主導地位是國防業務。

And so I think last year, around 59% or 60% of our revenue was Department of Defense.

所以我認為去年，我們大約 59% 或 60% 的收入來自國防部。

Of course, we have NASA, Homeland Security and other pieces of it.

當然，我們有 NASA、國土安全部和其他部門。

But what I am hearing in my discussions with numbers of Congress who build bipartisan support for defense spending.

但我在與國會議員的討論中聽到的是，他們為國防開支建立了兩黨支持。

I mean there's no doubt that the threats are getting greater around the world.

我的意思是，毫無疑問，世界各地的威脅越來越大。

We've been -- you've seen the National Defense Strategy that came out.

我們一直——你已經看到了國防戰略的出台。

You've seen the National Security Strategy, which I think have been much more direct about the great power competition with China and Russia, and also the other players like Iran and North Korea and others.

你看過國家安全戰略，我認為它更直接地涉及與中國和俄羅斯以及伊朗和朝鮮等其他國家的大國競爭。

I mean it's just -- it's not getting lighter, it's getting accelerated.

我的意思是它只是 - 它沒有變輕，它正在加速。

And with that, we know that not only is there the global threat's accelerating and growing but in addition to that, we need to recapitalize and so there needs to be an expenditure on recapitalization and our weapon systems as well as research and development on all the technology changes and unpredictable nature of the battle space we're seeing as our adversaries take advantage of all that technology.

有了這個，我們知道，不僅全球威脅正在加速和增長，而且除此之外，我們需要進行資本重組，因此需要在資本重組和我們的武器系統以及所有當我們的對手利用所有這些技術時，我們看到的戰鬥空間的技術變化和不可預測的性質。

So when you go look at what has been outlined in that National Defense Strategy, it's clear that what is requested aligns very well with our portfolio.

因此，當您查看該國防戰略中概述的內容時，很明顯，所要求的內容與我們的產品組合非常吻合。

I highlighted some of it in my earlier remarks, but all of the things that need to be spent on, whether it's in the nuclear or Space or the C4ISR, all those elements of intelligence capabilities and air dominance, et cetera, are all areas that we play in, and that we think our portfolio is very well aligned with.

我在之前的評論中強調了其中的一些，但是所有需要花費的東西，無論是在核、太空還是 C4ISR、所有這些情報能力和空中優勢等要素，都是我們參與其中，並且我們認為我們的投資組合非常符合。

The one area that I think we are all trying to watch is now, how much pressure there will be on putting more spending in the domestic non-defense side of spending.

我認為我們現在都在關注的一個領域是，在國內非國防支出方面增加支出會有多大壓力。

And so that will be the pressure point that we'll all watch.

所以這將是我們都會關注的壓力點。

Because I think if you've seen what's been brought forward by the President's -- earlier President's budget request, we're expecting to see the updated one that comes after 2020.

因為我認為，如果您已經看到總統早先的預算請求提出的內容，我們預計會在 2020 年之後看到更新的預算請求。

There's been a strong focus on defense.

防守非常受重視。

And so it will just be a matter of how that plays against the non-defense spending.

因此，這只是一個如何與非國防開支相抵觸的問題。

And we're hopeful that it will line up with what we need as a nation, which is to protect our citizens and focus on national security.

我們希望它將符合我們作為一個國家的需要，即保護我們的公民並關注國家安全。

And the next question is from David Strauss with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的大衛施特勞斯。

Bruce, I also want to give you my congratulations.

布魯斯，我也想祝賀你。

Job well done.

幹得好。

Thanks, Dave.

謝謝，戴夫。

On -- now update you with pension.

開——現在更新你的養老金。

As far as the contribution, would you mind spelling out exactly kind of what you're thinking about for '20 and '21 now?

至於貢獻，你介意確切地說出你現在對 20 年和 21 年的想法嗎？

I think before you were saying couple of hundred million in '20 and like $1.5 billion in '21?

我想在你說 20 年的幾億美元和 21 年的 15 億美元之前？

And then the second parter on CapEx.

然後是資本支出的第二部分。

Can you just talk about what you're thinking there?

你能談談你在想什麼嗎？

And how that kind of comes through in terms of higher depreciation over the next couple of years?

以及在接下來的幾年中，折舊率會更高，這種情況是如何發生的？

David, I would have been disappointed if we had our last conversation and you didn't ask me about pension.

戴維，如果我們最後一次談話而你沒有問我關於養老金的問題，我會很失望。

So I appreciate the question there.

所以我很欣賞那裡的問題。

2020 ERISA contributions, I think we talked about those being in a couple of hundred million dollar level last time we spoke in October.

2020 ERISA 捐款，我想我們上次在 10 月份講話時談到了那些達到幾億美元的捐款。

Again, that was before the roughly 6% swing in asset returns that happened from October to the end of the year.

同樣，那是在從 10 月到年底發生的資產回報率大約 6% 的波動之前。

If those -- and this is a little bit fluid because things can change between now and then, obviously, with good performance in 2019, and we're actually off to a good start.

如果這些 - 這有點不穩定，因為從現在到那時情況可能會發生變化，顯然，在 2019 年表現良好，我們實際上有了一個良好的開端。

As I'm sure everyone is in the first month or so of 2019 in terms of asset returns.

我敢肯定，就資產回報而言，每個人都處於 2019 年的第一個月左右。

So bear that in mind when I say this, but if we were to have drawn the line at the end of 2018 with the performance where we'd left it at a 5% negative return, we'd probably see at least a couple of hundred million dollars more contribution in 2020.

所以當我這麼說時請記住這一點，但如果我們要在 2018 年底以我們將其保持在 5% 負回報的表現劃清界限，我們可能至少會看到幾個2020 年的捐款將增加 1 億美元。

And then relative to the -- I think, you said it right, I think what you just said about $1.6 billion or so -- $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion, I think is what it was in 2021, probably also a couple hundred million dollars.

然後相對於 - 我認為，你說得對，我認為你剛才所說的大約 16 億美元左右 - 15 億到 16 億美元，我認為是 2021 年的情況，可能還有幾億美元.

And you should think of that as back to the phasing of ERISA to recover asset return shortfalls is sort of spread over like a, not quite a decade long, call it 9 years or so.

你應該認為，回到 ERISA 來彌補資產回報不足的階段，它有點像一個不長十年的時間，稱之為 9 年左右。

And the recovery from a CAS is sort of spread over a longer period, call it 12 or 13 years.

從 CAS 中恢復的時間有點長，可以稱之為 12 年或 13 年。

So at any one point in time, we'll have more -- at the front end of that time period, we'll have more contributions required to ERISA.

因此，在任何一個時間點，我們都會有更多——在那個時間段的前端，我們將對 ERISA 有更多的貢獻。

At the back-end, we'll have no ERISA contributions and peer recovery from a CAS perspective.

在後端，從 CAS 的角度來看，我們將沒有 ERISA 貢獻和對等恢復。

So think of that again as several hundred million dollars up in both years, 2020 and 2021, as we sit here today, with the potential that, that could change based on good performance in 2019.

因此，當我們今天坐在這裡時，再次考慮一下在 2020 年和 2021 年這兩年，這可能會增加數億美元，這可能會基於 2019 年的良好表現而改變。

Oh, you -- I'm sorry, David, I forgot, you also asked about CapEx and depreciation.

哦，你——對不起，大衛，我忘了，你還問了資本支出和折舊。

So we're going to increase capital expenditures in 2019, probably think of it as -- I think we finished last year, 2018, about $1.3 billion.

因此，我們將在 2019 年增加資本支出，可能認為是——我認為我們在 2018 年完成了大約 13 億美元。

Our outlook is probably $300 million or $400 million higher than that in 2017 -- excuse me, '17 -- 2019, and we'll probably be pretty close to that in 2020, excuse me.

我們的前景可能比 2017 年高出 3 億美元或 4 億美元——對不起，17 年——2019 年，對不起，我們可能會在 2020 年非常接近。

The drivers of that or some things we've talked about previously.

驅動因素或我們之前討論過的一些事情。

We've got some completion of a facility at our Space Systems -- our Space operations in Denver to help with the more efficient way to build and deliver satellites and as well as get some capacity there.

我們的太空系統設施已經完成了一些——我們在丹佛的太空業務，以幫助以更有效的方式建造和交付衛星，並在那裡獲得一些能力。

We've got significant growth in Missiles and Fire Control, both from a building perspective to house some employee growth that we talked about on some previous calls, but also both infrastructure, equipment and buildings, for that matter to increase capacity primarily in our weapons business, as we talked about previously.

我們在導彈和火控方面取得了顯著增長，無論是從建築的角度來看，以容納我們在之前的一些電話中談到的一些員工增長，而且還包括基礎設施、設備和建築物，就此而言，主要是增加我們的武器能力業務，正如我們之前談到的。

So we're -- that's a good news thing.

所以我們 - 這是一個好消息。

We're spending money to increase CapEx, but that is in turn increasing the capital or the capacity of our weapons program at Missiles and Fire Control.

我們正在花錢增加資本支出，但這反過來又增加了我們在導彈和火控方面的武器計劃的資本或能力。

We've also got -- and I think I've mentioned this previously, we've also got several awards, and I know I've mentioned this earlier in the call, the classified contracts sort of around the corporation.

我們還獲得了——我想我之前已經提到過這一點，我們也獲得了幾個獎項，而且我知道我之前在電話會議中提到過這一點，即圍繞公司的機密合同。

Some of those actually come with capital needs as well, but that is to feed, again, capabilities to support that growing classified business going forward.

其中一些實際上也伴隨著資本需求，但那是為了再次提供支持不斷增長的機密業務的能力。

So all of those are growing faster than our depreciation recovery, as you might expect, but that's good news.

因此，正如您所料，所有這些都比我們的折舊恢復速度更快，但這是個好消息。

That's where the future growth at both the top end and the bottom end of the business will come from, and ultimately our depreciation will catch up.

這就是業務高端和低端未來增長的來源，最終我們的折舊將迎頭趕上。

It's sort of like the pension asset return.

這有點像養老金資產回報。

It's just a little bit delayed there.

只是那裡有點延遲。

So we're happy to be spending the capital at the levels we have today, and we look forward to the growth that, that CapEx will drive from a capacity perspective going forward.

因此，我們很高興能夠以我們今天的水平花費資本，我們期待著資本支出將從未來的產能角度推動的增長。

And John, we're coming up on the top of the hour.

約翰，我們要趕上時間了。

We'll take one more question.

我們再回答一個問題。

And that will be from Carter Copeland with Melius Research.

這將來自卡特科普蘭和 Melius Research。

Bruce, let me take a second and also extend my congrats on what's been a great performance in the role.

布魯斯，讓我稍等一下，並祝賀我在這個角色中的出色表現。

I hope you really enjoy your retirement.

我希望你真的很享受你的退休生活。

Thanks, Carter.

謝謝，卡特。

I will stick to one in the interest of time, and that's on MFC.

出於時間的考慮，我會堅持一個，那就是在 MFC 上。

And, Bruce, wondered if you could just may be dig into the performance a little bit there.

而且，布魯斯想知道你是否可以深入了解那裡的表演。

You obviously had a very strong profit performance, and you call that risk retirements and volume being the source of that.

你顯然有非常強勁的利潤表現，你稱風險退休和交易量是其來源。

Should we assume that the vast majority of that was risk retirements?

我們是否應該假設其中絕大多數是風險退休？

Because I would assume that the classified shrink that you called out on the top line would would've had a negative mix impact.

因為我會假設你在頂線上喊出的分類收縮會產生負面的混合影響。

So anything you can do to kind of help us understand what drove that result?

所以你能做些什麼來幫助我們了解是什麼推動了這個結果？

Yes, I think you characterized it appropriately, Carter.

是的，我認為你對它的描述恰當，卡特。

We did have, as we closed the year out, some really good performance on a couple of programs that resulted in higher risk retirements.

當我們結束這一年時，我們確實在一些導致更高風險退休的計劃中取得了一些非常好的表現。

We are seeing, as you also point out, some growing volume at lower margins, primarily in the classified arena.

正如您還指出的那樣，我們看到一些利潤率較低的銷量增長，主要是在分類領域。

But again, if I just sort of rattle off some programs in Missiles and Fire Control that are helping to contribute to some of the higher growth but lower margin business, we're seeing that on the classified business.

但是再一次，如果我只是在導彈和火控方面喋喋不休地談論一些有助於促進一些更高增長但利潤率更低的業務的項目，我們會在機密業務中看到這一點。

Missiles and Fire Control is heavily, heavily involved and the hypersonic's work.

導彈和火力控制大量參與了高超音速的工作。

Indirectly, it's got some sort of Directed Energy work as well.

間接地，它也有某種定向能量工作。

The JAGM replacements, so think of that as the Hellfire replacement, is starting to see some early production volume, which is a great news, but it is at our lower margins than the legacy Hellfire program.

JAGM 的替代品，因此將其視為地獄火的替代品，開始看到一些早期的生產量，這是一個好消息，但它的利潤率低於傳統的地獄火計劃。

Ultimately, we think they'll be comparable, but not at this early stage of development and production.

最終，我們認為它們將具有可比性，但不是在開發和生產的早期階段。

So a lot of good growth coming -- again, the fastest growing business area in the corporation both the legacy programs, but frankly, most of the legacy growth is going to be a little bit delayed, it requires the capital expenditures that I talked about previously to get most of that growth in there.

因此，很多良好的增長即將到來——同樣，公司中增長最快的業務領域都是遺留項目，但坦率地說，大部分遺留項目的增長都會有點延遲，這需要我談到的資本支出以前在那裡獲得大部分增長。

So we're seeing that offset in the near term by growth on a lot of new start programs.

因此，我們看到許多新啟動計劃的增長在短期內抵消了這種影響。

And again, that's the great news, because this is the seed corn for future growth at Missiles and Fire Control that will last for the next decade or so.

再一次，這是個好消息，因為這是導彈和火控未來發展的種子玉米，將持續未來十年左右。

And as a result of all that, we are looking at margins pretty comparable for the year at Missiles and Fire Control in 2019 to 2018.

因此，我們認為 2019 年至 2018 年導彈和火控部門的利潤相當可觀。

And again, just as I said earlier, you should think of that as, the programs where you would think margins are improving, they are, and it's sort of being mitigated by a lot of smaller new start programs with lower margins as they begin their production or development phases.

同樣，正如我之前所說，您應該將其視為您認為利潤率正在提高的項目，它們確實如此，並且在開始它們的過程中，許多較小的利潤率較低的新啟動項目在某種程度上緩解了這種情況生產或開發階段。

Thank you, John.

謝謝你，約翰。

I think I'll end the call now by turning it over to Marillyn for some final thoughts.

我想我現在要結束通話，把它交給瑪麗蓮，讓她做一些最後的思考。

Thank you, Greg.

謝謝你，格雷格。

Before I conclude the call today, I'd like to take a moment to celebrate the career and upcoming retirement of Bruce Tanner.

在結束今天的電話會議之前，我想花點時間慶祝布魯斯·坦納的職業生涯和即將退休。

Bruce began his career more than 37 years ago in Fort Worth, where he worked on the F-16 program.

37 多年前，布魯斯在沃思堡開始了他的職業生涯，在那裡他參與了 F-16 項目。

And like the F-16 itself, Bruce has been a driving force in this company's success for many years.

和 F-16 本身一樣，布魯斯多年來一直是這家公司成功的推動力。

For the past 11-plus years, Bruce has been our Chief Financial Officer.

在過去的 11 多年裡，布魯斯一直擔任我們的首席財務官。

So many of you have gotten to know him through the past 46 earnings calls and his participation in numerous investor meetings and conferences.

通過過去的 46 次財報電話會議以及他參加眾多投資者會議和會議，你們中的許多人都認識了他。

And you know that Bruce is thoughtful, honest and even keeled.

而且你知道布魯斯是深思熟慮的，誠實的，甚至是冷靜的。

He's always prepared, and he does his best to answer every question that comes from our investors and analysts.

他時刻準備著，盡最大努力回答我們的投資者和分析師提出的每一個問題。

And I personally consider it an honor and pleasure to have had the opportunity to work with Bruce in many points throughout my career.

在我的職業生涯中，我個人認為有機會與布魯斯一起工作是一種榮幸和榮幸。

Within our company, we have benefited from his deep expertise, his strategic focus and his leadership.

在我們公司，我們受益於他深厚的專業知識、戰略重點和領導能力。

Regardless of the challenges we faced at any given time, Bruce has helped our company grow and flourish.

無論我們在任何特定時間面臨何種挑戰，布魯斯都幫助我們的公司發展壯大。

Because of his commitment to mentoring and building up others, his impact and his influence will shape Lockheed Martin for decades to come.

由於他致力於指導和建設他人，他的影響力和影響力將在未來幾十年塑造洛克希德馬丁公司。

Many of you know that we put tremendous focus on strong leadership, talent development and succession planning at Lockheed Martin.

你們中的許多人都知道，我們非常重視洛克希德馬丁公司的強大領導力、人才發展和繼任計劃。

That's why, as Bruce transitions out, we are delighted to welcome Ken Possenriede as our new CFO on February 11.

這就是為什麼在 Bruce 離職之際，我們很高興在 2 月 11 日歡迎 Ken Possenriede 成為我們的新首席財務官。

Ken and I have also worked closely together, dating back to our days leading the electronic systems business area.

Ken 和我也密切合作，可以追溯到我們領導電子系統業務領域的日子。

And more recently, as our Corporate Treasurer and Finance Executive at our Space and Aeronautics business areas.

最近，作為我們在航天和航空業務領域的公司財務主管和財務主管。

His experience and track record are impeccable, and I look forward to maintaining our momentum with Ken at the helm of our finance organization.

他的經驗和業績記錄無可挑剔，我期待在 Ken 掌舵我們的財務組織時保持我們的勢頭。

So we wish Bruce the very best for well-earned retirement later this year as he returns to Texas to enjoy more time with his family, including his 3 grandchildren.

因此，我們希望布魯斯在今年晚些時候回到德克薩斯州，享受更多與家人（包括他的 3 個孫子孫女）在一起的時光，從而獲得豐厚的退休金。

Bruce, on behalf of our shareholders and our employees, I thank you for your leadership and your outstanding contributions.

布魯斯，我代表我們的股東和我們的員工，感謝您的領導和您的傑出貢獻。

And Ken, we welcome you to the team.

肯，我們歡迎你加入團隊。

Thanks, Marillyn.

謝謝，瑪麗蓮。

So thank you again for joining us all on the call today, and we look forward to speaking with all of you in our next earnings call in April.

因此，再次感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議，我們期待在 4 月的下一次財報電話會議上與大家交談。

So John, that concludes our call today.

約翰，今天的電話到此結束。

Than you.

比你。

And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude the conference.

女士們，先生們，這確實結束了會議。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。