金百利克拉克 (KMB) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Kimberly-Clark Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions).

美好的一天，歡迎參加金佰利 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）。

It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Christina Cheng. Ma'am, the floor is yours.

現在我很高興將發言權交給主持人 Christina Cheng。女士，地板是你的了。

Welcome, everyone, to our third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. Before we begin, please note today's presentation will include forward-looking statements. Actual results may vary materially from those expressed or implied in our forward-looking statements, and you should not place any undue reliance on our forward-looking statements.

歡迎大家參加我們的 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。在開始之前，請注意今天的演示將包含前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與我們的前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異，您不應過度依賴我們的前瞻性陳述。

Please refer to our SEC filings for a list of factors that could cause our actual results to deviate materially from our expectations. Our remarks today refer to adjusted results, which exclude certain items described in our news release. We use non-GAAP financial measures to help investors understand our ongoing business performance. Please consult our press release for a discussion of our non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to comparable GAAP financial measures. We have published supplemental materials which are found in the Investor Relations section of our website.

請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件，以了解可能導致我們的實際結果與我們的預期產生重大偏差的因素清單。我們今天的言論涉及調整後的結果，其中不包括我們新聞稿中描述的某些項目。我們使用非公認會計準則財務指標來幫助投資者了解我們持續的業務績效。請查閱我們的新聞稿，以了解我們的非公認會計原則財務指標以及與可比較公認會計原則財務指標的調節的討論。我們已經發布了補充資料，您可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到這些資料。

Participating in today's call are our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Mike Hsu; and our Chief Financial Officer, Nelson Urdaneta. Mike will start the discussion with our strategic priorities and provide an overview of our performance for the quarter. Nelson will provide a detailed discussion on our Q3 results and our outlook before we open the floor to Q&A.

參加今天電話會議的有我們的董事長兼執行長 Mike Hsu；以及我們的財務長 Nelson Urdaneta。麥克將開始討論我們的策略重點，並概述我們本季的業績。在我們開始問答之前，尼爾森將詳細討論我們第三季的業績和前景。

With that, I will turn the call over to Mike.

這樣，我會將電話轉給麥克。

Thank you, Christina. We delivered another quarter of strong results. I'm proud of how our teams around the world are executing our growth strategy. Our innovation and commercial programs are contributing to the top line momentum with improving volume and market share trends and strong gross margin expansion.

謝謝你，克里斯蒂娜。我們又一個季度取得了強勁的業績。我對我們世界各地的團隊如何執行我們的成長策略感到自豪。我們的創新和商業計劃透過提高銷售和市場份額趨勢以及強勁的毛利率擴張，為收入成長做出了貢獻。

Based on the strength of our year-to-date performance, we are raising our full year outlook. Third quarter and year-to-date organic sales increased 5%, with growth across all segments. Personal Care, our largest business, led the way with 7% organic growth, and importantly, 2% volume growth. Further gains in price and mix were enabled by strong revenue growth management capability, while volume improved sequentially for a third consecutive quarter. We expect volume trends to continue improving as we cycle prior pricing actions and continue to invest in our brands. We also continue to make excellent progress on margin recovery.

基於我們今年迄今的強勁表現，我們上調了全年展望。第三季和年初至今的有機銷售額成長了 5%，所有細分市場均成長。我們最大的業務個人護理以 7% 的有機增長領跑，更重要的是，銷量增長了 2%。強大的收入成長管理能力推動了價格和產品組合的進一步成長，而銷售連續第三個季度環比增長。我們預計，隨著我們循環之前的定價行動並繼續投資我們的品牌，銷售趨勢將繼續改善。我們在利潤恢復方面也繼續取得出色進展。

Gross margin was up 530 basis points and exceeded 2019 levels, an important milestone in our commitment to restore our gross margin. Operating profit was up 18%, and adjusted earnings per share grew 24%. Given the strength of our year-to-date performance, we're raising our 2023 outlook. We now expect organic sales to grow 4% to 5% and adjusted earnings per share to increase 15% to 17%. Global demand in our categories and for our brands remains resilient. In key markets, we're seeing a healthier balance of growth in both price and volume. In North America Consumer, organic sales were up 7%, with volume up 3%.

毛利率成長 530 個基點，超過 2019 年水平，這是我們恢復毛利率承諾的一個重要里程碑。營業利益成長 18%，調整後每股盈餘成長 24%。鑑於我們今年迄今的強勁表現，我們上調了 2023 年的展望。我們現在預計有機銷售額將成長 4% 至 5%，調整後每股盈餘將成長 15% 至 17%。我們的品類和品牌的全球需求依然強勁。在主要市場，我們看到價格和銷售的成長更加健康的平衡。在北美消費者領域，有機銷售額成長了 7%，銷量成長了 3%。

Dynamics were similar in EMEA. In China, organic sales and volume were both up double digits despite ongoing category softness. While growth across D&E continues to be mixed, consumption increased double digits in Latin America. In our largest markets, our market shares are improving. In North America, we saw a sequential improvement in 6 of 8 categories. This was enabled by strong commercial execution, marketing activation and a significant easing of year-to-date supply constraints in personal care and facial tissue.

歐洲、中東和非洲地區的動態也類似。在中國，儘管品類持續疲軟，有機銷售額和銷量均達到兩位數成長。儘管 D&E 的成長持續參差不齊，但拉丁美洲的消費成長了兩位數。在我們最大的市場中，我們的市佔率正在提高。在北美，我們在 8 個類別中的 6 個類別中看到了連續改善。這是由於強大的商業執行力、行銷活動以及個人護理和麵巾紙今年迄今供應限制的顯著緩解而實現的。

In the U.K., new performance-enhancing designs, price pack offerings and digital initiatives have resulted in over 200 basis points of year-over-year share gains for Andrex. And in China, we're continuing to see strong market share momentum with Huggies share up nearly 200 basis points in the quarter. As market leaders, we're raising the bar by elevating and expanding our categories with superior products and advantaged technology to address unmet needs. We're also committed to meeting consumers where they need us by offering a comprehensive range of products across the value spectrum.

在英國，新的性能增強設計、價格包產品和數位計劃使 Andrex 的份額比去年同期增長了 200 個基點以上。在中國，我們繼續看到強勁的市場份額勢頭，本季好奇的份額增長了近 200 個基點。身為市場領導者，我們透過優質產品和優勢技術來提升和擴展我們的品類，以滿足未滿足的需求，從而提高標準。我們也致力於透過提供跨價值範圍的全面產品來滿足消費者的需求。

I'll highlight a few examples. In China, we introduced a breakthrough design for Huggies with innovation that whisks away both forms of babies mess to reduce the frequency of diaper rash. This is a foundational element of our global skin health platform. In North America, we launched new Poise 7-drop ultra observancy pads and 8-drop overnight. These higher-capacity designs provide better absorbency in protection than daytime pads. Also in North America tissue, Scott 1000 lasts longer and dissolve faster, and this has been core to Scott's powerful proposition among value-oriented consumers and that's why Scott continues to deliver robust growth in this important daily use segment.

我將重點介紹幾個例子。在中國，我們為好奇心推出了一項突破性的創新設計，可以消除嬰兒的兩種形式的髒亂，從而減少尿布疹的發生頻率。這是我們全球皮膚健康平台的基本要素。在北美，我們推出了新的 Poise 7 滴超觀察墊和 8 滴過夜觀察墊。這些更高容量的設計比日間護墊提供更好的吸收性保護。同樣在北美衛生紙中，Scott 1000 的持續時間更長、溶解速度更快，這一直是Scott 在以價值為導向的消費者中強有力的主張的核心，這也是Scott 在這一重要的日常使用領域持續實現強勁成長的原因。

We believe our ongoing investment in advantage technology and brand communications will attract more consumers, increase usage occasions and ultimately grow our categories. I'm proud of the progress we've made to offset the multiyear impact of inflation on our P&L. Restoring margins to pre-pandemic levels was a milestone and not our end goal. We will continue to expand margins by executing our commercial and productivity programs to deliver balanced and sustainable growth for the long term.

我們相信，我們對優勢科技和品牌傳播的持續投資將吸引更多消費者，增加使用場合，並最終擴大我們的類別。我為我們在抵銷通膨對損益的多年影響方面所取得的進展感到自豪。將利潤率恢復到疫情前的水平是一個里程碑，而不是我們的最終目標。我們將繼續透過執行商業和生產力計劃來擴大利潤，以實現長期平衡和可持續的成長。

I'll now turn it over to Nelson to provide more details on our third quarter and outlook for the remainder of the year.

現在我將把它交給尼爾森，以提供有關我們第三季度和今年剩餘時間的展望的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Mike. We delivered another quarter of strong results across the company. Net sales were $5.1 billion, up 2% versus last year. Organic sales increased 5%, led by high single-digit growth in the Personal Care segment and in North America. Volume improved sequentially for the third quarter in a row to minus 1%, while price realization was 5% and mix contributed 1 point of growth. Currency negatively impacted net sales by approximately 200 basis points. The exit of our Brazil tissue business had an additional impact of 100 basis points, primarily on Consumer Tissue and our Professional business.

謝謝，麥克。我們整個公司又一個季度取得了強勁的業績。淨銷售額為 51 億美元，比去年成長 2%。有機銷售額成長了 5%，其中個人護理領域和北美地區實現了高個位數成長。第三季銷售量連續成長至負 1%，而價格實現率為 5%，混合貢獻了 1 個百分點的成長。貨幣對淨銷售額產生約 200 個基點的負面影響。我們巴西衛生紙業務的退出額外影響了 100 個基點，主要是對消費紙巾和我們的專業業務。

Let me spend a few minutes on each of our segments. First, Personal Care organic sales increased 7% this quarter. Price realization drove 4 points of growth and mix contributed 1%. Volume turned positive for the first time in 5 quarters, with an increase of 2%. North America and developing and emerging markets organic sales grew in the high single digits, with volume increases in North America. Developed markets grew low single digits.

讓我花幾分鐘時間討論我們的每個部分。首先，本季個人護理品有機銷售額成長了 7%。價格變現推動了 4 個百分點的成長，混合貢獻了 1%。成交量五季以來首度轉正，成長 2%。北美以及發展中和新興市場的有機銷售額以高個位數成長，北美銷售量增加。已開發市場實現低個位數成長。

Within Personal Care, each of our subcategories grew high single digits. Operating margin for the segment improved 250 basis points versus a year ago, driven by gross margin improvement, while we continue to increase our investments in our brands. Second, organic growth in Consumer Tissue was 2%. Within Consumer Tissue, North America delivered 4% organic growth, driven by healthy demand in dry bath and towels. Outstanding results from the U.K. drove 2% growth in the developed markets on top of last year's 11% increase. Operating margin for the segment was up 320 basis points versus a year ago, driven by revenue growth management and improved service levels.

在個人護理領域，我們的每個子類別都實現了高個位數成長。在毛利率改善的推動下，該部門的營業利潤率比一年前提高了 250 個基點，同時我們繼續增加對品牌的投資。其次，消費紙巾的有機成長率為 2%。在消費紙巾領域，受乾浴和毛巾健康需求的推動，北美地區實現了 4% 的有機成長。英國的出色業績帶動已開發市場在去年 11% 的基礎上再成長 2%。在營收成長管理和服務水準提高的推動下，該部門的營業利潤率比一年前成長了 320 個基點。

Finally, our K-C Professional business posted 4% organic growth despite challenging comparisons against last year. On a 2-year average, organic sales growth was 7%. Demand for our washroom business remains healthy and new commercial programs drove share gains in North America.

最後，儘管與去年相比充滿挑戰，但我們的 K-C Professional 業務仍實現了 4% 的有機成長。兩年平均有機銷售額成長率為 7%。對我們洗手間業務的需求保持健康，新的商業計劃推動了北美市場的份額成長。

Strong revenue realization was partially offset by lower volumes, which were partly driven by the timing of select planned price adjustments. Operating margin for Professional improved by 550 basis points, which was broadly in line with the first half of 2023.

強勁的收入實現部分被銷售下降所抵消，而銷售下降在一定程度上是由選定的計劃價格調整時間推動的。 Professional 的營業利潤率提高了 550 個基點，與 2023 年上半年基本一致。

Turning to the rest of the P&L. Third quarter gross margin increased 530 basis points to 35.8%. Revenue growth management, input cost tailwinds and about $90 million in FORCE savings more than offset other manufacturing costs and currency headwinds. The cost environment remains mixed. With favorability in raw materials offset by higher energy prices, currency headwinds and higher labor costs. Other manufacturing costs were $30 million higher than last year. Between the lines spending was 20.7% of net sales, up 310 basis points versus a year ago, reflecting year-on-year inflation and investments in our brands, our people and our capabilities.

轉向損益表的其餘部分。第三季毛利率成長530個基點至35.8%。收入成長管理、投入成本順風和約 9,000 萬美元的 FORCE 節省足以抵消其他製造成本和貨幣逆風。成本環境依然複雜。能源價格上漲、貨幣逆風和勞動成本上升抵消了原材料的青睞。其他製造成本比去年高出 3,000 萬美元。字裡行間，支出佔淨銷售額的 20.7%，比去年同期成長 310 個基點，反映了年比通膨以及對我們品牌、員工和能力的投資。

These results also reflect higher year-on-year incentive compensation accruals. Operating profit for the quarter increased 18%, and operating margin improved by 210 basis points to 15.1%. This includes a currency headwind of $135 million or a 21 percentage point profit impact, of which 4 points were due to the translation of earnings from non-U.S. operations and the balance was largely driven by transactional costs. Lastly, the adjusted effective tax rate for the quarter was 22.5%, in line with last year's 22.3%. Our operating results, coupled with lower net interest expense and gains in equity income drove a 24% growth in adjusted earnings per share to $1.74 in the third quarter.

這些結果也反映出年比激勵薪酬的增加。該季度營業利潤成長 18%，營業利潤率提高 210 個基點至 15.1%。其中包括 1.35 億美元的貨幣逆風或 21 個百分點的利潤影響，其中 4 個百分點是由於非美國業務的收益換算造成的，其餘部分主要由交易成本驅動。最後，本季調整後的有效稅率為 22.5%，與去年的 22.3% 一致。我們的經營業績，加上較低的淨利息支出和股本收入收益，推動第三季調整後每股收益成長 24%，達到 1.74 美元。

Turning to balance sheet and cash flow highlights. Through the first 9 months of the year, we generated $2.3 billion in cash flow from operations. Capital spending was $549 million compared to $679 million last year. We expect to end the year with CapEx of approximately $800 million. Year-to-date, we returned $1.3 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

轉向資產負債表和現金流亮點。今年前 9 個月，我們的營運現金流達到 23 億美元。資本支出為 5.49 億美元，去年為 6.79 億美元。我們預計今年年底的資本支出約為 8 億美元。今年迄今為止，我們透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了 13 億美元。

Now let me say a few words about our outlook. Based on our strong results, we are raising our full year guidance. We now expect organic sales growth of 4% to 5% and net sales growth of 1% to 2%, reflecting the impact of unfavorable currency and divestitures. We also now expect adjusted earnings per share growth of 15% to 17%. Currency headwinds continue to worsen given the recent strengthening of the U.S. dollar against the Argentina peso and other key currencies. Based on recent currency forward curves, we are projecting that currency will have a negative top line impact of approximately 300 basis points and a bottom line headwind of approximately $450 million, up from our previous assumption of $300 million to $400 million for the year.

現在讓我談談我們的看法。基於我們的強勁業績，我們正在提高全年指導。我們目前預期有機銷售額將成長 4% 至 5%，淨銷售額將成長 1% 至 2%，反映了不利貨幣和資產剝離的影響。我們現在也預期調整後每股盈餘將成長 15% 至 17%。鑑於近期美元兌阿根廷比索和其他主要貨幣走強，貨幣逆風持續惡化。根據最近的貨幣遠期曲線，我們預期貨幣將對營收產生約300 個基點的負面影響，並對營收產生約4.5 億美元的不利影響，高於我們先前對今年3 億至4 億美元的假設。

On input costs, we now expect headwinds of approximately $50 million versus the previous outlook of $100 million. Other manufacturing costs are now expected to increase by approximately $250 million compared to $200 million in our prior outlook.

在投入成本方面，我們現在預計逆風約為 5,000 萬美元，而先前的預期為 1 億美元。與我們先前預測的 2 億美元相比，目前預計其他製造成本將增加約 2.5 億美元。

With gross margins returning to pre-pandemic levels in the quarter, we remain focused on driving cost discipline and productivity to create more fuel for growth. For the full year, we project FORCE to deliver $300 million to $350 million, reflecting favorable results from ongoing negotiations of our materials purchases. Continued progress in gross margin recovery puts us in a great position to advance our commercial programs, and we continue to expect advertising spend to increase by approximately 100 basis points for the full year.

隨著本季毛利率恢復到疫情前的水平，我們仍然專注於推動成本控制和生產力，為成長創造更多動力。我們預計 FORCE 全年將交付 3 億至 3.5 億美元，這反映出我們正在進行的材料採購談判取得了良好的結果。毛利率恢復的持續進展使我們處於推進商業計劃的有利位置，我們繼續預計全年廣告支出將增加約 100 個基點。

Overall, we now expect operating margin to increase 170 basis points at the midpoint of our guidance compared to an increase of 150 basis points in our July guidance. Below the line, net interest expense is expected to decline in the high single digits. We have also updated our assumption for adjusted tax rate to 23% to 24%. These improvements result in our full year outlook for adjusted earnings per share growth of 15% to 17%.

總體而言，我們現在預計營業利潤率將在我們指導的中點增加 170 個基點，而 7 月指導的增幅為 150 個基點。在此線下方，淨利息支出預計將下降至高個位數。我們也將調整後稅率的假設更新為 23% 至 24%。這些改善使我們預計全年調整後每股收益將成長 15% 至 17%。

In closing, while we continue to operate in a volatile environment, we remain focused on executing our growth strategy, including continued investments in our brands and capabilities for long-term value creation.

最後，雖然我們繼續在動盪的環境中運營，但我們仍然專注於執行我們的成長策略，包括持續投資於我們的品牌和長期價值創造能力。

With that, we will open the floor for questions.

接下來，我們將開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question is coming from Chris Carey from Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自富國銀行的 Chris Carey。

So one question just around commodities. So clearly continuing to see favorability, but we have seen some firming of late. And I just wonder how you see things over kind of near- to medium-term horizon from specifically the commodity basket?

這是一個關於商品的問題。很明顯，人們繼續看到青睞，但我們最近看到了一些堅挺。我只是想知道您如何看待近中期的情況，特別是大宗商品籃子？

So basically trying to balance the fact that you're seeing favorability this year, you have hedges and there's timing impacts that aren't really going to impact this year, but just how you're watching this overall commodity environment. I'm really asking this in the context of the potential need to take pricing against volumes and how that balance is going to work over the medium term?

因此，基本上試圖平衡這樣一個事實：今年你看到了好感，你有對沖，還有時間影響，這些影響不會真正影響今年，而只是你如何看待整個大宗商品環境。我真的是在潛在需要根據銷售量進行定價的背景下問這個問題的，以及這種平衡在中期內如何發揮作用？

Yes. I'll start with a quick comment, and then I'll ask Nelson to kind of give you a lot more additional context and detail. But one, Chris, I'd say, we finally saw inflection in the cost environment for us. As you know, we've taken on a lot of inflation over the past couple of years. And even this year, the plan was additional, between currency and commodities, about $500 million of impact. And so in the quarter -- so our first quarter were -- the costs actually were favorable. And so that's a significant inflection point for us. I do expect input cost to be a modest tailwind going forward, but don't expect necessarily that there's going to be a lot that's come behind that.

是的。我將首先進行快速評論，然後我將請尼爾森為您提供更多額外的背景和細節。但我想說的是，克里斯，我們終於看到了成本環境的改變。如您所知，過去幾年我們承受了嚴重的通貨膨脹。即使是今年，該計劃在貨幣和大宗商品之間還產生了約 5 億美元的額外影響。因此，在本季度——我們的第一季——成本實際上是有利的。所以這對我們來說是一個重要的轉捩點。我確實預期投入成本將成為未來的溫和推動因素，但我不認為背後一定會有很多因素。

The one thing is, though, we do believe and I mentioned this in the prepared remarks that it's our job to expand margins over time, and we believe we have a lot of opportunity to do that on an ongoing basis between what we're doing on the revenue side and also on the cost side. But Nelson, maybe...

不過，有一件事是，我們確實相信，我在準備好的發言中提到了這一點，隨著時間的推移，擴大利潤是我們的工作，而且我們相信，在我們正在做的事情之間，我們有很多機會持續做到這一點包括收入方面和成本方面。但納爾遜，也許…

Yes. Just to elaborate a little, Chris, on what Mike was walking you through. So at this stage, what we've seen in the quarter, and it's playing out the way we had forecast back in July. In general, the savings that we're seeing are driven by pulp, distribution and other commodities. And we've actually seen some increases, especially as we look forward, on resin-based materials and energy costs. We had our first quarter of a benefit, so $75 million. And as you remember, for the first half of the year, we were negative around $190 million. Based on where we stand today, we still project that we will be favorable in the fourth quarter of the year by an amount that's not that dissimilar from what we had in the fourth quarter of the year.

是的。克里斯，我只是想詳細說明麥克正在向您介紹的內容。因此，在現階段，我們在本季所看到的情況，以及我們在 7 月預測的方式正在發生。總的來說，我們看到的節省是由紙漿、分銷和其他商品推動的。我們實際上已經看到了樹脂基材料和能源成本的一些成長，尤其是在我們的展望中。我們第一季的收益為 7500 萬美元。正如您所記得的，今年上半年，我們的虧損約為 1.9 億美元。根據我們今天的情況，我們仍然預計今年第四季的業績將與今年第四季的情況沒有太大不同。

And for the full year, we would be around $50 million in terms of commodities negatively impacted. One thing to keep in mind is we've also been driving a lot of benefits, Chris, through our FORCE program. Remember, we engage in negotiations in some of the materials where there's no clear market for us to engage in hedging. And we've been actively pursuing this over the last few quarters.

全年，我們的大宗商品將受到約 5,000 萬美元的負面影響。需要記住的一件事是，克里斯，我們也透過我們的 FORCE 計劃帶來了很多好處。請記住，我們就某些沒有明確市場可供我們進行對沖的材料進行談判。在過去的幾個季度中，我們一直在積極追求這一目標。

So that's also been a contributor for FORCE, which includes our net -- our negotiated material prices, and that's flowed through. As Mike said, we don't expect tremendous tailwinds going forward, but we're pleased with where the overall costs are at this stage.

因此，這也是 FORCE 的貢獻者，其中包括我們的網路——我們協商的材料價格，而這些都已經流通。正如麥克所說，我們預計未來不會有巨大的推動力，但我們對現階段的整體成本感到滿意。

That's very helpful. And then 1 follow-up just on Personal Care and specifically the North America part of the Personal Care division. The volume growth there, can you just talk to the durability, what year ago comps had to do with that? And then within the North America business. I wonder if you can talk about what categories are driving this?

這非常有幫助。然後是關於個人護理的 1 個後續行動，特別是個人護理部門的北美部分。那裡的銷售成長，你能談談耐用性嗎？哪一年前的比較與此有關？然後是北美業務。我想知道您能否談談哪些類別推動了這一趨勢？

Yes, great question, Chris. I'll give you maybe a view and a couple of different components. One, I'd say overall North America consumption remains robust. And I think that really does reflect the essential nature of our category. Our consumption in North America for K-C was up mid-single digit with solid growth across all categories.

是的，很好的問題，克里斯。我可能會給您一個視圖和幾個不同的組件。第一，我想說北美的整體消費仍然強勁。我認為這確實反映了我們類別的本質。我們在北美的 K-C 消費量成長了中個位數，所有類別均穩定成長。

And then I think one thing I did mention in the prepared remarks is we are coming off some fairly significant supply constraints that affected most of our Personal Care businesses and our Kleenex business mostly throughout the year. And so we did have shipments that were a little higher than consumption. And I'll give you an example on Baby Care. Organic shipments were up in the teens, low-teens, while consumption was up about between 3% and 4%. And so that really reflects, I think, retailers getting their inventories back in position. We had been allocating shipments on Huggies since the beginning of the year.

然後我認為我在準備好的演講中確實提到的一件事是，我們正在擺脫一些相當嚴重的供應限制，這些限制影響了我們大多數個人護理業務和我們的面巾紙業務，這些限制在全年中都受到影響。因此，我們的出貨量確實略高於消費量。我會給你一個關於嬰兒護理的例子。有機出貨量增加了十幾歲、十幾歲，而消費量增加了約 3% 至 4%。我認為，這確實反映出零售商正在恢復庫存。自今年年初以來，我們一直在好奇好奇上分配發貨。

And we had a pretty significant supply situation with a supplier outage that has constrained our volume, is actually kind of constrained our share throughout the course of the year on a number of brands. And so we came out of that, we came off allocation across all brands at some point in mid-September. And so that's kind of why shipments probably ended up in the quarter a little bit higher.

我們的供應情況非常嚴重，供應商中斷限制了我們的銷量，實際上限制了我們全年在許多品牌上的份額。所以我們走出了困境，在九月中旬的某個時候我們取消了所有品牌的分配。這就是為什麼本季出貨量可能會略高的原因。

And on the comp, Chris, also remember the last year in Q3 in September, we had a bit of a destock. So that's also kind of weighing in. But very pleased with where we ended up. And more importantly, the underlying consumption in North America.

在比較方面，克里斯，還記得去年 9 月的第三季度，我們進行了一些庫存削減。所以這也是一種權衡。但我們對最終的結果非常滿意。更重要的是北美的潛在消費。

Your next question is coming from Anna Lizzul from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Anna Lizzul。

I also had a question on the better gross margins, which clearly benefited from the lower input costs. I was wondering are you seeing a reversal of that recently with the input costs like the higher oil prices? Just to follow up on Chris' question. And also, if you can elaborate on what drove the better cost savings in FORCE this quarter?

我還有一個關於更好的毛利率的問題，這顯然得益於較低的投入成本。我想知道最近隨著油價上漲等投入成本，您是否看到了這種情況的逆轉？只是為了跟進克里斯的問題。另外，您能否詳細說明是什麼推動了 FORCE 本季更好的成本節約？

Sure. So a few things. As we go through the second half of the year, we still -- as I indicated, to Chris, we still expect to have, based on current assumptions, favorability on commodities heading into Q4 on a net basis. Because remember, through the first half of the year, we were around $190 million negative. We were $75 million favorable in the third quarter, and we're calling for the full year an estimate of $50 million of a headwind in net. So we still expect to be favorable in the fourth quarter.

當然。所以有幾件事。當我們進入今年下半年時，正如我向克里斯指出的那樣，我們仍然預計，根據當前的假設，進入第四季度的大宗商品將獲得淨利好。因為請記住，今年上半年，我們的虧損約為 1.9 億美元。第三季我們獲得了 7,500 萬美元的有利收益，我們預計全年的淨收益將達到 5,000 萬美元。所以我們仍然預期第四季會有利。

Having said that, we're, of course, watchful of what's happening with the oil markets and the implications for resins. They don't immediately impact the resins, but we have seen resins begin to plateau at the level of prices. And in fact, I mean, curves are starting to move a little bit upwards, and we're watching that. But overall, we still expect commodities to be down over the next quarter-or-so, at least. The other bid in gross margin, as you said, was FORCE. We had a strong delivery of FORCE savings for the quarter. On a year-to-date basis, we're at $275 million, and we've actually taken up our call for the year to $300 million to $350 million. So net-net, I mean, we are encouraged by the overall cost savings and our program in FORCE.

話雖如此，我們當然會關注石油市場的變化及其對樹脂的影響。它們不會立即影響樹脂，但我們已經看到樹脂的價格水平開始趨於穩定。事實上，我的意思是，曲線開始稍微向上移動，我們正在觀察這一點。但總體而言，我們仍然預期大宗商品至少在下個季度左右會下跌。正如您所說，毛利率的另一個出價是“FORCE”。本季我們實現了強勁的 FORCE 節省。年初至今，我們的營收為 2.75 億美元，實際上我們已經接受了今年 3 億至 3.5 億美元的目標。因此，我的意思是，我們對整體成本節省和我們的 FORCE 計劃感到鼓舞。

And in terms of gross margin, keep in mind, it's not linear. We don't expect gross margins to grow linearly quarter after quarter because there are always puts and takes quarter-to-quarter. But having hit the 35.8% mark is an important milestone for us as we look forward to then expand margins down the road.

就毛利率而言，請記住，它不是線性的。我們預期毛利率不會逐季線性成長，因為每季總是有看跌期權和看跌期權。但達到 35.8% 大關對我們來說是一個重要的里程碑，因為我們期待未來擴大利潤率。

And then, Anna, maybe just an additional comment. I think the maybe underlying your question and Chris before, was, hey, there appears to be some underlying volatility in cost -- input costs, and they're likely is. And we've dealt with that significantly over the past several years. I would say, longer term, we believe it's our job to continue to enhance margins, so we would remain disciplined in terms of our revenue management program and capability and also our cost management capability.

然後，安娜，也許只是一個補充評論。我認為你和克里斯之前的問題可能是，嘿，成本——投入成本——似乎存在一些潛在的波動，而且很可能是這樣。在過去的幾年裡，我們已經認真處理了這個問題。我想說，從長遠來看，我們相信繼續提高利潤率是我們的工作，因此我們將在收入管理計劃和能力以及成本管理能力方面保持紀律。

And again, another item to add, Anna, as you think about the next few quarters is currency. Currency has gotten more volatile. I mean we've seen the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. And as you would have seen in our outlook, we did take up our expected headwinds from currency on our operating profit. And again, we're watching that carefully as we think about 2024.

再一次，安娜，當你考慮接下來的幾個季度時，另一個要添加的項目是貨幣。貨幣變得更加波動。我的意思是我們已經看到美元走強。正如您在我們的展望中所看到的那樣，我們確實克服了預期的貨幣對我們營業利潤的不利影響。再次，我們在思考 2024 年時會仔細觀察這種情況。

Great. That's very helpful. And just as a follow-up, you did have the benefit from better-than-expected pricing in the quarter, while volumes were soft. So you did see a nice sequential improvement in the change of volumes from Q2 to Q3? I was wondering how we should think about the sequential improvement potentially from Q3 to Q4 in volumes?

偉大的。這非常有幫助。作為後續行動，您確實從本季好於預期的定價中受益，而銷售量卻疲軟。那麼您確實看到從第二季到第三季的銷售變化有很好的連續改善嗎？我想知道我們應該如何看待第三季到第四季銷售可能的連續改善？

Well, we've had, I would say, 4 quarters of successive volume improvement. So I think we were down 7, down 5, down 3, whatever, down 1. And importantly, Personal Care volumes were up this quarter. So I'd say we're making solid progress. We're seeing solid volume momentum. And I think I said in the prepared remarks that we would expect continued improvement. We're not ready to call '24 yet, but I think volume -- we cycled most of our big pricing actions from last year. And so we would expect volume trends to continue to improve as we drive our commercial programs and invest behind our brands.

嗯，我想說，我們已經連續四個季度實現了銷量的改善。所以我認為我們下降了 7、下降 5、下降 3，無論如何，下降 1。重要的是，本季度個人護理品銷量有所增長。所以我想說我們正在取得紮實的進展。我們看到了強勁的成交量勢頭。我想我在準備好的發言中說過，我們期望持續改進。我們還沒有準備好宣布“24 小時”，但我認為數量——我們去年的大部分重大定價行動都是循環的。因此，隨著我們推動商業計劃並投資於我們的品牌，我們預計銷售趨勢將繼續改善。

Your next question is coming from Javier Escalante from Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Javier Escalante。

My question has to do with the pricing side, particularly in North America, which is 80% of your profits and it's where we have more visibility on. The pricing seems to be constructive, right, for private label. Promotional levels are below 2019. But we did see a little bit of a pickup on year-end, at least in track channels. So if you can talk about whether what is promotionally -- is it what categories? What's the point? Is it because the some of your categories are coming out of allocation? If you can comment on that? And then I have a more strategic question after that.

我的問題與定價方面有關，特別是在北美，這佔了您利潤的 80%，也是我們擁有更多知名度的地方。對於自有品牌來說，定價似乎是有建設性的，對吧。促銷水平低於 2019 年。但我們確實在年底看到了一點回升，至少在賽道渠道是這樣。那麼，如果你能談談什麼是促銷活動——是哪些類別？重點是什麼？是不是因為你們的一些品類已經分配完了？您能否對此發表評論？之後我有一個更具策略性的問題。

Yes. Well, I'd say part one, Javier, I think I said this in the past and philosophically, I think we view trade promotion as a path to drive trial, especially of new items. And so that's kind of where it fits in our marketing mix. And so I'm not a fan of using promotion to rent or borrow share for a period of time. And so I think any data that you might say -- I'd say, we are promoting still below, as you point out, 2019 levels.

是的。好吧，我想說第一部分，哈維爾，我想我過去說過這一點，從哲學上講，我認為我們將貿易促進視為推動試驗的一種途徑，尤其是新產品的試驗。這就是它適合我們行銷組合的地方。因此，我不喜歡利用促銷來出租或借用股份一段時間。因此，我認為您可能會說的任何數據 - 我想說的是，正如您指出的那樣，我們的促銷仍低於 2019 年的水平。

But I think we have participated in some promotions. I did see your note, and I would say one thing that kind of skews the analysis a little bit is this whole metric the denominator is EQ, right, or equivalent units. And for all the tissue categories, the equivalent unit is 10,000 sheets and for diapers, it's 1,000 diapers.

但我認為我們參加了一些促銷活動。我確實看到了你的註釋，我想說的是，有一點使分析有點偏差，那就是整個指標的分母是 EQ、右值或等效單位。對於所有紙巾類別，等效單位為 10,000 張，對於尿布，等效單位為 1,000 個尿布。

And so when you do it on that basis or on a per piece basis, what happens, especially in our consumer tissue business is Scott 1000 by definition has 1,000 sheets. And so that's about, let's say, between 4x and 6x more than any other brands. And so that tends to skew kind of the measures a little bit makes us look a little bit underpriced when you do it on an EQ basis. But overall, I think we've taken pricing, we've probably moved faster on pricing than other brands. And so I'd say to me, our normal price gaps have begun to normalize.

因此，當您以此為基礎或以每件為基礎進行操作時，會發生什麼，特別是在我們的消費紙巾業務中，Scott 1000 根據定義有 1,000 張。比方說，這大約是其他品牌的 4 倍到 6 倍。因此，當您在情緒智商的基礎上進行衡量時，這往往會稍微扭曲衡量標準，使我們看起來有點被低估。但總的來說，我認為我們已經採取了定價，我們的定價可能比其他品牌更快。所以我想說，我們正常的價格差距已經開始正常化。

Very helpful on the note. The other is, given the setup, right, do you think that there is the possibility of gross margins going forward to be higher than 2019 given the mix, given the -- if you add volume plus mix, year-over-year you are running flat, do you think that, that is possible that going forward, we're going to be operating at gross margins above 2019 levels or that's structural that cannot happen.

對筆記很有幫助。另一個問題是，考慮到目前的情況，你認為考慮到這種組合，你認為未來的毛利率有可能高於 2019 年嗎？如果持平，您認為未來我們的毛利率有可能高於2019 年的水平嗎？或這是不可能發生的結構性情況。

I'll start, and then I'll let Nelson correct me. But I would say, it's our job. And so from my chair, I would say we have to do it, right? And so -- and the back story -- and I know you came out last year or so, Javier. But when I came into this role, the 3 things that we set out to do was, one, accelerate organic growth; second, reduce our earnings volatility; and the third thing, importantly, is enhance our margins. And so that was a fundamental goal when I came into this role.

我先開始，然後讓納爾遜糾正我。但我想說，這是我們的工作。因此，從我的椅子上，我想說我們必須這樣做，對吧？所以——以及背景故事——我知道你去年左右就出櫃了，哈維爾。但當我擔任這個職位時，我們要做的三件事是：第一，加速有機成長；第二，加速有機成長。第二，減少我們的獲利波動；第三件事，重要的是提高我們的利潤。因此，這是我擔任此職務時的基本目標。

The kind of the curveball that came in, in between that was COVID, the demand shock, supply shocks and everything else in the inflation shocks. And so over the last couple of years, we said, hey, we've got an interim goal of, one, we got to restore our margins, which I think this quarter kind of marks a pretty significant point for us that hey, we are back pre-COVID or 2019 levels.

介於兩者之間的曲線球是新冠疫情、需求衝擊、供應衝擊以及通膨衝擊中的其他一切。因此，在過去的幾年中，我們說，嘿，我們有一個中期目標，一，我們必須恢復我們的利潤率，我認為本季度對我們來說標誌著一個非常重要的點，嘿，我們回到了新冠疫情之前或2019 年的水準。

But still, as we talk internally, it's our job to enhance margins from here. And that's what I'm saying is we have to continue to be disciplined around our commercial programming, our innovation our revenue management and also just a discipline on the cost program, and I still see further opportunity for us to expand our margins. But maybe I'll give you -- I'll ask Nelson to kind of give you some more specifics around the near term.

但正如我們內部所說，我們的工作就是從這裡提高利潤。這就是我所說的，我們必須繼續遵守我們的商業計劃、我們的創新、我們的收入管理以及成本計劃的紀律，我仍然認為我們有進一步擴大利潤的機會。但也許我會告訴你——我會請尼爾森在短期內給你一些更多細節。

Yes. So Javier, just to build on what Mike said. I mean -- and we've been talking about this since we had our lowest point in gross margin at 29.8% about 5 quarters ago. And our whole point was that we were going to get back to the 35%, which is a milestone and not an end state. And really, what's happened is we've made -- and we've been making and you can see significant investments behind building capabilities in the organization. So we've been building a lot of muscle around revenue growth management, and this includes price-back architecture and the ability to have also the right packs and sizes and formats for the different customers that we deal with across the globe.

是的。哈維爾，只是以麥克所說的為基礎。我的意思是——自從大約 5 個季度前我們的毛利率達到最低點 29.8% 以來，我們就一直在討論這個問題。我們的重點是，我們將回到 35%，這是一個里程碑，而不是最終狀態。實際上，所發生的事情是我們已經做出的，而且我們一直在做出，你可以看到在組織能力建設背後的重大投資。因此，我們一直在圍繞收入成長管理建立大量力量，這包括價格返還架構以及為我們在全球範圍內處理的不同客戶提供正確的包裝、尺寸和格式的能力。

Secondly is around productivity. We've made sure that we strengthen and buttress our overall gross margin productivity pipeline and that remains strong today. And then you can see how we've been delivering that over time, and we intend to deliver ongoing productivity, gross productivity as an element to drive that.

其次是生產力。我們已經確保加強和支撐我們的整體毛利率生產力管道，並且今天仍然保持強勁。然後您可以看到我們如何隨著時間的推移實現這一目標，我們打算提供持續的生產力，總生產力作為推動這一目標的一個要素。

And then the other bid is around our innovation. We've increased our focus around innovation; last year, drove 60% of our revenue growth, and it's accretive innovation. And if you combine these 3, that's really the way we're staring at expanding margins over time, gross margins. And that's truly what's going to drive balanced and sustainable growth for years to come for us.

然後另一個投標是圍繞我們的創新。我們更重視創新；去年，我們的營收成長了 60%，這就是增值創新。如果你把這三者結合起來，這確實是我們著眼於隨著時間的推移擴大利潤率、毛利率的方式。這才是真正推動我們未來幾年實現平衡和永續成長的因素。

Your next question is coming from Steve Powers from Deutsche Bank.

你們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的史蒂夫·鮑爾斯。

So 2 questions. The first one, just Nelson, maybe you could expand a bit on the other manufacturing cost inflation and the higher call for the year that you've made today? Just maybe a little bit of further detail as to the drivers there and where we are in that cycle as we look forward?

所以有2個問題。第一個，納爾遜，也許您可以稍微談談其他製造成本通膨以及您今天提出的今年更高的要求？也許只是關於那裡的驅動程式以及我們在該週期中的預期的進一步細節？

Sure. So as you indicated, we took our call from $200 million to $250 million through the first 3 quarters of the year were close to $200 million, just a tad below. And what's really driving this is a few things. One, keep in mind that a lot of the service inflation and lease inflation, et cetera, and some cost inflation flow through this number. And it's being weighed in by some of the hyperinflationary economies that we deal with. So we're being impacted on that end because we've seen some costs accelerate outside of the U.S., Steve. So that's part of what's driving that $250 million based on where we're at, at this stage.

當然。正如您所指出的，我們將我們的預測從 2 億美元提高到了 2.5 億美元，今年前 3 季接近 2 億美元，僅略低於 2 億美元。真正推動這一趨勢的是幾件事。第一，請記住，許多服務通膨和租賃通膨等，以及一些成本通膨都流經這個數字。我們所面對的一些惡性通膨經濟體也對此產生了影響。因此，我們在這方面受到了影響，因為我們看到美國以外的一些成本正在加速成長，史蒂夫。因此，根據我們現階段的情況，這就是推動 2.5 億美元成長的部分原因。

Okay. Okay. And then, Mike, maybe bigger picture, you've been -- you talked about the higher A&P and marketing spending this year. And just in general, there's been a lot of strategic growth initiatives and commercial investments that you've been making. I guess as you think about the aggregate investment that you've made over the last couple of years in that regard, just where do you think you are versus your long-term strategic priorities?

好的。好的。然後，麥克，也許從更大的角度來看，您談到了今年更高的廣告費用和行銷支出。總的來說，你們一直在進行許多策略性成長計畫和商業投資。我想，當您考慮過去幾年在這方面所做的總投資時，您認為與長期策略重點相比，您處於什麼位置？

And do you see opportunity or need to kind of continue to invest at an accelerated pace as we think about next year, is that -- is it an investment year? Is it a year where you're growing investments more in line with sales? Or are you at a point where you can actually start to leverage and lever from a margin expansion standpoint, some of the investments you've been making over the past couple of years?

當我們考慮明年時，您是否看到機會或需要繼續加速投資，這是投資年嗎？今年您的投資成長是否與銷售額更一致？或者，您已經真正可以從利潤擴張的角度開始利用過去幾年進行的一些投資？

Yes. Thanks, Steve. One, I'm really pleased with the team. We are delivering what we set out to do, which is balanced and sustainable growth. As you could see, the organic momentum remains very strong. The margins are coming along as we mentioned, restored them the pre-COVID levels. And so we feel good about that. I would say we've made a lot of progress in the investment. We've made a lot of progress in building improved capability. We've made a lot of progress in improving our innovation capability and the innovation pipeline. And so I think over the last 5 years, we're probably up a couple of hundred basis points in advertising investment.

是的。謝謝，史蒂夫。第一，我對團隊非常滿意。我們正在實現我們的目標，即平衡和永續的成長。正如您所看到的，有機勢頭仍然非常強勁。正如我們所提到的，利潤率正在恢復到新冠疫情前的水準。所以我們對此感覺良好。我想說我們在投資方面取得了很大進展。我們在增強能力方面取得了很大進展。我們在提升創新能力和創新管道方面取得了巨大進展。因此，我認為在過去 5 年裡，我們的廣告投資可能增加了幾百個基點。

I think from there, we really need to make that investment. At this point, we're approaching 6% overall sales. And so I would say that's competitive in our business. It's perhaps not as much as our primary global competitor, but our plan is not to outspend them. And our plan would be to drive great innovation, great commercial programming and have a competitive spend. And so I don't expect -- Steve, I don't think, I'll go and say, "Hey, we need to continue with increased advertising investment in a straight line infinitely". Do I think there's some opportunity for us to continue to invest? Yes. But do I think we also have to leverage the investments we've already made better? Yes.

我認為從那時起，我們確實需要進行這項投資。目前，我們的總銷售額已接近 6%。所以我想說這在我們的業務上具有競爭力。它可能不如我們的主要全球競爭對手那麼多，但我們的計劃並不是超過他們。我們的計劃是推動偉大的創新、偉大的商業節目並擁有有競爭力的支出。所以我不期望 - 史蒂夫，我不認為，我會說，「嘿，我們需要繼續無限地直線增加廣告投資」。我認為我們還有繼續投資的機會嗎？是的。但我認為我們是否還必須充分利用我們已經做出的更好的投資？是的。

Okay. Yes. No, so I play it back, it sounds like you've -- the catch up that you might have identified 4 or 5 years ago, you feel like you've done and now it's more opportunistic spend where there's a clear ROI, but you don't feel a huge need to catch up because you're underspending?

好的。是的。不，所以我回放一下，聽起來你已經——你可能已經在4 或5 年前發現的趕上了，你感覺你已經完成了，現在它是更多機會主義的支出，有明確的投資回報率，但是您是否因為支出不足而感到非常需要趕上？

Yes. Because 5 years ago, we were spending in the 3s and so that was -- I think I felt like too low for a company of the categories that we operate in. I feel competitive at this point. But we also have great opportunities to spend on and ROIs are great. And so especially as we continue to migrate more and more to digital and so there's going to be plenty of things that we're going to want to invest in.

是的。因為 5 年前，我們的支出是 3 美元，所以我認為對於我們所經營的類別的公司來說，我覺得太低了。在這一點上我感到有競爭力。但我們也有很好的投資機會，而且投資報酬率也很高。尤其是當我們繼續越來越多地遷移到數位化時，我們將有很多東西需要投資。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question is coming from Andrea Teixeira from JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

This is Shabana on for Andrea. I just wanted to ask you, can you please add color on your views regarding carryover pricing into 2024 and how to think about the possibly the need to roll back some of this pricing into 2024, especially with the retailers seeing some commodities coming in better? I mean I understand you just elaborated that pulp is lower, but resin may potentially go up, especially with oil coming in higher. If you could just like, in aggregate, give us a little bit more picture?

這是 Shabana 為 Andrea 所做的節目。我只是想問您，您能否補充一下您對 2024 年結轉定價的看法，以及如何考慮是否需要將部分定價回滾到 2024 年，特別是零售商看到一些商品的銷售狀況更好？我的意思是，我理解您剛才詳細闡述了紙漿價格較低，但樹脂可能會上漲，尤其是在石油價格較高的情況下。總的來說，您能否提供我們更多資訊？

Yes. Maybe I'll start. I would say most of our pricing went in last year, and so we did have some pricing this year. So there will be a little carryover. I wouldn't say it's a huge driver of -- will be a huge driver for the plan next year. Given what we just discussed on the cost environment, you can see costs this year are still up after being up significantly in '21 and '22. And so we're not seeing a ton of deflation. While there might be -- we're starting to see some modest tailwinds that may continue for a few quarters. But I'm not seeing, at least in the near term in, a huge inflation. We have rolled back some pricing because it notably in Professional in Europe, we had energy costs that really shot up and then came back down.

是的。也許我會開始。我想說我們的大部分定價都是去年的，所以今年我們確實有一些定價。所以會有一點殘留。我不會說這是明年計劃的巨大推動力。鑑於我們剛剛討論的成本環境，您可以看到，繼 21 年和 22 年大幅上漲之後，今年成本仍在上漲。因此，我們沒有看到大量通貨緊縮。雖然可能存在——但我們開始看到一些溫和的順風，可能會持續幾個季度。但至少在短期內，我沒有看到巨大的通貨膨脹。我們降低了一些定價，因為特別是在歐洲的專業領域，我們的能源成本確實飆升，然後又回落。

And so we have adjusted some pricing in some markets, and we'll do that where it makes sense. But in general, I think we've priced appropriately for the cost environment that we anticipate and that environment is playing out thus far as we expected.

因此，我們在一些市場調整了一些定價，我們將在有意義的地方進行調整。但總的來說，我認為我們已經根據我們預期的成本環境進行了適當的定價，到目前為止，該環境正在按照我們的預期進行。

That concludes our Q&A session. I will now hand the conference back to Chief Executive Officer, Mike Hsu, for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我將把會議交回首席執行官徐邁克 (Mike Hsu) 致閉幕詞。請繼續。

Okay. Well, as I said, proud of the team that we're successfully developing -- delivering balanced and sustainable growth. Thank you for your interest in Kimberly-Clark, and we will see you next quarter.

好的。嗯，正如我所說，我們為我們成功發展的團隊感到自豪——實現平衡和可持續的成長。感謝您對金佰利的關注，我們下季再見。

Thank you, everyone. This concludes today's event. You may disconnect at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝大家。今天的活動到此結束。此時您可能會斷開連接，並度過美好的一天。感謝您的參與。