金百利克拉克 (KMB) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Kimberly-Clark Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加金佰利 2023 年第二季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Christina Cheng, Vice President of Investor Relations. Ma'am, the floor is yours.

現在我很高興將發言權交給東道主投資者關係副總裁 Christina Cheng。女士，地板是你的了。

Welcome, everyone, to our second quarter 2023 earnings conference call. Before we begin, please note today's presentation will include forward-looking statements. Our results may vary materially from those expressed or implied in our forward-looking statements, and you should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings for a list of factors that could cause our actual results to deviate materially from our expectations.

歡迎大家參加我們的 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。在開始之前，請注意今天的演示將包含前瞻性陳述。我們的結果可能與我們的前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異，您不應過分依賴任何前瞻性陳述。請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件，了解可能導致我們的實際結果與我們的預期產生重大偏差的因素列表。

Our remarks today refer to adjusted results, which exclude certain items described in our news release. We use non-GAAP financial measures to help investors understand our ongoing business performance. Please consult our press release for a discussion of our non-GAAP financial measures and a reconciliation to comparable GAAP financial measures. We have published supplemental materials which are found in the Investor Relations section of our website.

我們今天的言論涉及調整後的結果，其中不包括我們新聞稿中描述的某些項目。我們使用非公認會計準則財務指標來幫助投資者了解我們持續的業務績效。請查閱我們的新聞稿，了解我們的非公認會計原則財務指標的討論以及與可比公認會計原則財務指標的調節。我們已經發布了補充材料，您可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到這些材料。

Participating in today's call are our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Mike Hsu; and our Chief Financial Officer, Nelson Urdaneta. Mike will start the discussion with our strategic priorities and provide an overview of our performance for the quarter. Nelson will provide a detailed discussion on our Q2 results and our outlook before we open the floor to Q&A.

參加今天電話會議的有我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Mike Hsu；以及我們的首席財務官 Nelson Urdaneta。邁克將開始討論我們的戰略重點，並概述我們本季度的業績。在我們開始問答之前，尼爾森將詳細討論我們第二季度的業績和前景。

With that, I turn the call over to Mike.

說完，我把電話轉給了邁克。

Thank you, Christina. We delivered another solid quarter with 5% organic growth, while cycling 9% growth in the year-ago quarter. Organic sales were up across all segments with Personal Care and Consumer Tissue, each up 4% and Professional up 13%. Our growth strategy is working, and our performance in the quarter reflects strong execution by our teams around the world.

謝謝你，克里斯蒂娜。我們又一個穩健的季度實現了 5% 的有機增長，而去年同期的增長率為 9%。所有細分市場的有機銷售額均有所增長，其中個人護理品和生活用紙分別增長 4%，專業品增長 13%。我們的增長戰略正在發揮作用，本季度的業績反映了我們世界各地團隊的強大執行力。

We continue to make strong progress on margin recovery. Adjusted gross margin was up 380 basis points and fueled a 17% increase in adjusted operating profit and a 23% increase in adjusted earnings per share. Given the strength of our first half, we're raising our full year 2023 outlook to 3% to 5% organic growth and 10% to 14% adjusted EPS growth.

我們在利潤率恢復方面繼續取得強勁進展。調整後毛利率上升 380 個基點，推動調整後營業利潤增長 17%，調整後每股收益增長 23%。鑑於上半年的強勁表現，我們將 2023 年全年有機增長預期上調至 3% 至 5%，調整後每股收益增長至 10% 至 14%。

Our categories remain healthy. In North America, category sales were up 8%, and we continue to see robust growth in key developed markets, including the U.K. and South Korea, which delivered double-digit and mid-single-digit increases, respectively. While category growth across D&E has been more variable, we continue to see double-digit increases in Latin America. This growth reflects the essential nature of our categories. As category leaders, we remained focused on serving all our consumers and recognize that many are facing economic challenges. With our broad portfolio offering value to premium options, we're able to meet consumers where they need us, and we are well positioned with brands like Scott and Huggies Snug & Dry to serve the value-oriented consumer.

我們的類別保持健康。在北美，品類銷售額增長了 8%，我們繼續看到主要發達市場的強勁增長，包括英國和韓國，分別實現了兩位數和中個位數的增長。儘管 D&E 類別的增長變化較大，但我們仍然看到拉丁美洲出現兩位數的增長。這種增長反映了我們類別的本質。作為品類領導者，我們仍然專注於為所有消費者提供服務，並認識到許多消費者面臨著經濟挑戰。憑藉我們廣泛的產品組合為優質選擇提供價值，我們能夠滿足消費者的需求，並且我們與 Scott 和 Huggies Snug & Dry 等品牌處於有利地位，可以為註重價值的消費者提供服務。

Across markets, we're strengthening our price tag offering and that means enhancing large-count packs and big box channels and making entry prices more affordable in small format channels. More importantly, we're accelerating innovation and cascading technology through our product offering to ensure we're delivering a superior value proposition to consumers. Growing market share continues to be a top priority. In the quarter, year-over-year market share performance was soft, reflecting the relatively early actions we took to mitigate inflation.

在各個市場上，我們正​​在加強我們的價格標籤產品，這意味著增強大容量包裝和大盒渠道，並使小規格渠道的入門價格更加實惠。更重要的是，我們正在通過我們的產品加速創新和級聯技術，以確保我們為消費者提供卓越的價值主張。擴大市場份額仍然是首要任務。本季度，市場份額同比表現疲軟，反映出我們為緩解通脹而採取的相對較早的行動。

In the last 6 months, price gaps have begun to normalize, and we are encouraged to see sequential improvement in market share in key cohorts, including North America, where we've seen improvement in 5 of 8 categories.

在過去 6 個月中，價格差距已開始正常化，我們欣喜地看到關鍵群體的市場份額連續改善，其中包括北美，我們在 8 個類別中的 5 個類別中看到了改善。

Volume trends have improved, and we expect that to continue as we cycle inflationary measures and execute our strategy and commercial programs. Our enhanced commercial capabilities are enabling more real-time decision-making to drive sales, optimize brand investment and balance value and volume. Furthermore, we expect increased brand investment and improve supply fulfillment to strengthen our market share performance over the balance of the year.

成交量趨勢有所改善，我們預計隨著我們循環通脹措施並執行我們的戰略和商業計劃，這種趨勢將持續下去。我們增強的商業能力使我們能夠做出更實時的決策，以推動銷售、優化品牌投資並平衡價值和銷量。此外，我們預計增加品牌投資並改善供應履行，以增強我們今年剩餘時間的市場份額表現。

Our commercial programs and innovation are core to our strategy to elevate and expand our categories. We're pleased with our launches in the first half and enthusiastic about our second half plans. Here are a few highlights. Huggies debuted it's newest baby bus campaign this summer, celebrating Huggies unique curve design, which provides greater comfort and protection for babies on the move. Early results show excellent consumer engagement across our marketing channels. In China, we're raising the bar on skin health through a proprietary design that whisks away the baby's mess. Moving the mess away quickly from baby skin is key to reducing diaper rash. We believe this kind of innovation will further differentiate us from the competition and is the reason Huggies continues to expand its market leadership in China.

我們的商業計劃和創新是我們提升和擴展品類戰略的核心。我們對上半年的發布感到滿意，並對下半年的計劃充滿熱情。以下是一些亮點。好奇公司 (Huggies) 今年夏天推出了最新的嬰兒巴士活動，慶祝好奇公司獨特的曲線設計，為移動中的嬰兒提供更大的舒適度和保護。早期結果顯示我們的營銷渠道中消費者的參與度很高。在中國，我們通過專有設計消除嬰兒的髒亂，提高了皮膚健康的標準。快速清除嬰兒皮膚上的污垢是減少尿布疹的關鍵。我們相信這種創新將進一步使我們在競爭中脫穎而出，也是好奇公司繼續擴大其在中國市場領導地位的原因。

Lastly, our Kotex Intimate She Can campaign in Latin America continues to resonate. We were recently recognized with a prestigious (inaudible) award for this initiative, reducing period stigma as part of menstrual education.

最後，我們在拉丁美洲的 Kotex Intimate She Can 活動繼續引起共鳴。最近，我們因這項舉措獲得了一項享有盛譽的（聽不清）獎項，該舉措減少了月經教育中的經期恥辱。

In China, Kotex introduced overnight and overnight pad with a proprietary design that prevents leakage with instant absorb technology. Overall, around the world, we are seeing growth driven by the overnight segment. This is a great example of superior product performance, coupled with effective brand strategy and communications to drive share gains and strong brand equity.

在中國，高潔絲推出了採用專有設計的隔夜和隔夜衛生巾，通過即時吸收技術防止滲漏。總體而言，在全球範圍內，我們看到了隔夜市場推動的增長。這是一個很好的例子，展示了卓越的產品性能，加上有效的品牌戰略和溝通，以推動份額增長和強大的品牌資產。

Now I'd like to briefly address the impairment charges to intangible assets we recognized this quarter. We purchased Softex Indonesia to expand our presence in one of the world's fastest-growing personal care markets. Indonesia ranked some of the top 3 markets for new births, and we expect continued economic development will create more demand for our products over time. As the second largest diaper player in Indonesia, representing over 1/4 of the market, Softex has built a strong equity with local consumers. The impairment charges we took this quarter, which Nelson will discuss shortly reflect our updated projections for the business. We have enhanced the team and taken action to improve the business processes and our go-to-market approach. Indonesia remains an exciting growth market for Kimberly-Clark, and we're committed to this business for the long term.

現在我想簡要談談我們本季度確認的無形資產減值費用。我們收購了 Softex Indonesia，以擴大我們在全球增長最快的個人護理市場之一的業務。印度尼西亞躋身新生兒市場前三名，我們預計隨著時間的推移，經濟的持續發展將為我們的產品創造更多需求。作為印度尼西亞第二大紙尿褲生產商，佔據超過 1/4 的市場份額，Softex 與當地消費者建立了牢固的關係。我們本季度收取的減值費用（尼爾森將很快討論）反映了我們對業務的最新預測。我們增強了團隊實力，並採取行動改進業務流程和我們的市場推廣方法。對於金佰利來說，印度尼西亞仍然是一個令人興奮的增長市場，我們致力於長期發展這一業務。

Now as we enter the back half, we expect continued progress in our journey to restore and eventually expand our margins. We're excited about our innovation and commercial plans, and we'll invest more in our brands to improve our market share performance and growth trajectory. This is how we will elevate and expand our categories to deliver balanced and sustainable growth.

現在，隨著我們進入後半段，我們預計在恢復並最終擴大利潤率的過程中將繼續取得進展。我們對我們的創新和商業計劃感到興奮，我們將加大對我們品牌的投資，以提高我們的市場份額表現和增長軌跡。這就是我們提升和擴大品類以實現平衡和可持續增長的方式。

Now I'll turn it over to Nelson for more details on the second quarter.

現在我將把它交給尼爾森，了解第二季度的更多細節。

Thanks, Mike. Before I get into second quarter results, let me take a moment to discuss the divestiture of our Brazil Tissue business and the impairment of intangible assets this quarter. We closed the sale of our Brazil Tissue business in June, which enables us to focus even more on growing personal care. As a result of this transaction, we recorded a pretax gain of $74 million and $30 million of related expenses, both of which are excluded from our adjusted results this quarter. I want to thank the many K-Cers, who worked hard to complete this transaction.

謝謝，邁克。在介紹第二季度業績之前，讓我花點時間討論本季度巴西衛生紙業務的剝離和無形資產減值。我們於六月份完成了巴西紙巾業務的出售，這使我們能夠更加專注於發展個人護理品。通過此次交易，我們錄得 7400 萬美元的稅前收益和 3000 萬美元的相關費用，這兩項費用均不包括在本季度調整後的業績中。我要感謝眾多為完成這筆交易而付出努力的K-Cers。

In addition, we conducted strategic reviews, forecasting and integration assessments as part of our business planning cycle. Based on updated financial projections, a pretax noncash impairment charge of $658 million was recorded, primarily related to intangible assets linked to the Softex acquisition. The charges reflect revised projections for certain brands. Due to modified consumer shopping behavior, post COVID-19 and inflationary pressures and increased competitive activity in the region. We are confident in the prospects of the personal care market in Indonesia, and we are committed to continue investing in this business.

此外，作為業務規劃週期的一部分，我們還進行了戰略審查、預測和整合評估。根據最新的財務預測，記錄了 6.58 億美元的稅前非現金減值費用，主要與與 Softex 收購相關的無形資產有關。這些費用反映了某些品牌的修訂預測。由於消費者購物行為的改變、新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 疫情和通貨膨脹壓力以及該地區競爭活動的增加。我們對印尼個人護理市場的前景充滿信心，並致力於繼續投資該業務。

Let me now turn to our second quarter results. Net sales were $5.1 billion, up 1% year-over-year. Organic sales increased 5%. On a 2-year basis, organic sales growth was strong across all three segments with approximately 7% average growth for the company. Effective revenue growth management delivered favorable price realization and mix benefits, while volume trends continue to improve sequentially. Net sales in the quarter were impacted by approximately 400 basis points of currency headwinds.

現在讓我談談我們第二季度的業績。淨銷售額為 51 億美元，同比增長 1%。有機銷售額增長了 5%。兩年來，所有三個細分市場的有機銷售增長強勁，公司平均增長率約為 7%。有效的收入增長管理帶來了有利的價格實現和組合效益，同時銷量趨勢繼續改善。該季度的淨銷售額受到貨幣逆風約 400 個基點的影響。

Turning to our segments. Personal Care, representing approximately half of the company's revenue grew 4% organically, led by mid-teens growth in feminine care and mid-single-digit growth in adult care. Infant Care delivered broad-based growth in the quarter with the majority of regions growing mid-single digits. Operating profit for the segment improved 1%. Organic growth in consumer tissue was 4%, led by a 7% growth in North America, where volumes have turned positive, up low single digits in the quarter, driven by Viva and Cottonelle. Operating profit for the segment was up 12%.

轉向我們的細分市場。占公司收入約一半的個人護理業務有機增長了 4%，其中女性護理產品實現了中位數增長，成人護理產品實現了中個位數增長。本季度嬰兒護理業務實現了廣泛增長，大多數地區實現了中個位數增長。該部門的營業利潤提高了 1%。消費用紙的有機增長率為 4%，其中北美地區增長了 7%，在 Viva 和 Cottonelle 的推動下，該地區的銷量在本季度實現了低個位數增長。該部門的營業利潤增長了 12%。

Finally, our K-C Professional business posted a 13% organic growth. All geographies grew and notably, volumes turned positive in North America after six quarters of decline. Our focus on key commercial sectors, effective digital engagement and innovation in sustainability are fueling the momentum in K-C Professional. Favorable product mix and cost savings drove significant operating profit improvement in the quarter.

最後，我們的 K-C Professional 業務實現了 13% 的有機增長。所有地區均實現增長，尤其是北美地區的銷量在連續六個季度下降後轉為正值。我們對關鍵商業領域的關注、有效的數字化參與和可持續發展創新正在推動 K-C Professional 的發展勢頭。有利的產品組合和成本節約推動本季度營業利潤大幅提高。

Turning to the rest of the P&L. Second quarter adjusted gross margin increased 380 basis points to 34%. Revenue growth management, in addition to 4 savings of approximately $80 million more than offset cost inflation and currency headwinds. Cost environment remains mixed. Although energy prices have moderated in some markets, they remain elevated in others. Labor costs are structurally higher now due the cost of living adjustments and a tight job market in certain key geographies. In addition, other manufacturing costs, which cover labor, were $85 million higher this quarter, in line with our expectations. Between the lines spending on an adjusted basis was 19.8% of net sales, up 190 basis points versus a year ago, driven by continued investments behind our brands and our capabilities as well as the impact from inflation on our cost base. Adjusted operating profit for the quarter increased 17%, and operating margin improved by 190 basis points to 14.2%.

轉向損益表的其餘部分。第二季度調整後毛利率增長 380 個基點至 34%。收入增長管理，此外還節省了約 8000 萬美元的 4 美元，抵消了成本通脹和貨幣逆風。成本環境依然複雜。儘管一些市場的能源價格有所回落，但其他市場的能源價格仍然較高。由於生活成本調整和某些關鍵地區就業市場緊張，目前勞動力成本結構性上漲。此外，本季度包括勞動力在內的其他製造成本增加了 8500 萬美元，符合我們的預期。調整後的支出占淨銷售額的 19.8%，比一年前增長了 190 個基點，這得益於我們品牌和能力的持續投資以及通脹對我們成本基礎的影響。該季度調整後營業利潤增長 17%，營業利潤率提高 190 個基點至 14.2%。

Foreign currency was a 16 percentage point headwind on operating profit in the quarter, of which 5 points were due to translation of earnings from our non-U.S. operations. The balance was largely from transactional impacts. We have made good progress on our margin recovery over the last few quarters, and we remain committed to restoring them to pre-pandemic levels and expanding them over time. To achieve this, we are increasing our focus on productivity by building a long-term pipeline of opportunities that can generate significant end-to-end efficiencies.

外匯對本季度營業利潤造成 16 個百分點的阻力，其中 5 個百分點是由於我們非美國業務的收益換算所致。餘額主要來自交易影響。過去幾個季度，我們在利潤率恢復方面取得了良好進展，我們仍然致力於將其恢復到大流行前的水平，並隨著時間的推移將其擴大。為了實現這一目標，我們通過建立長期的機會渠道來提高生產力，從而顯著提高端到端效率。

Lastly, the adjusted effective tax rate for the quarter was 20.5% compared to 22% in the year ago period. Strong overall performance, along with a lower tax rate resulted in adjusted earnings increasing by 23% to $1.65 per share. For the first half of the year, we generated $1.4 billion in cash flow from operations. Capital spending was $389 million compared to $470 million last year. Year-to-date, we returned $850 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

最後，本季度調整後的有效稅率為 20.5%，而去年同期為 22%。強勁的整體業績以及較低的稅率導致調整後收益增長 23% 至每股 1.65 美元。今年上半年，我們的運營現金流達 14 億美元。資本支出為 3.89 億美元，去年為 4.7 億美元。今年迄今為止，我們通過股息和股票回購向股東返還了 8.5 億美元。

Now let me say a few words about our outlook. With our continued momentum this quarter, we are raising our full year guidance for organic growth of 3% to 5% and adjusted EPS growth of 10% to 14%. As a reminder, our previous guidance was 2% to 4% organic growth and 6% to 10% adjusted EPS growth.

現在讓我談談我們的看法。憑藉本季度的持續增長勢頭，我們將全年有機增長預期提高了 3% 至 5%，調整後每股收益增長 10% 至 14%。提醒一下，我們之前的指導是有機增長 2% 至 4%，調整後每股收益增長 6% 至 10%。

The Brazil divestiture, which was not reflected in our previous outlook, is expected to impact reported sales growth by approximately 100 basis points. We continue to expect currency to impact full year top line growth by approximately 200 basis points. Based on the latest estimates for the year, we now expect input costs to be a headwind of approximately $100 million, an improvement versus the midpoint of our prior outlook of $100 million to $200 million.

巴西資產剝離並未在我們之前的展望中反映出來，預計將影響報告的銷售增長約 100 個基點。我們仍然預計匯率將影響全年營收增長約 200 個基點。根據今年的最新估計，我們現在預計投入成本將減少約 1 億美元，比我們之前預測的 1 億至 2 億美元的中值有所改善。

In addition, we continue to project approximately $200 million from higher wages and other manufacturing costs. Continued progress in gross margin recovery puts us in a great position to advance our commercial programs. We expect advertising spend to increase by approximately 100 basis points for the full year. This brings us to a projected operating profit growth in the low double-digit range and an operating margin increase of approximately 150 basis points at the midpoint of our guidance range. We remain optimistic about the future and our ability to create long-term value for our stakeholders. We are also very proud of how our teams continue to execute our exciting growth agenda across the globe.

此外，我們繼續預計工資和其他製造成本上漲約 2 億美元。毛利率恢復的持續進展使我們處於推進商業計劃的有利位置。我們預計全年廣告支出將增加約 100 個基點。這使我們預計營業利潤增長在低兩位數範圍內，營業利潤率在我們指導範圍的中點增加約 150 個基點。我們對未來以及為利益相關者創造長期價值的能力保持樂觀。我們也對我們的團隊如何繼續在全球範圍內執行令人興奮的增長議程感到非常自豪。

With that, we will open the floor to questions.

接下來，我們將開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question is coming from Lauren Lieberman from Barclays.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Lauren Lieberman。

Wanted to just ask a bit about divisional margins. One thing that jumped out to me in the quarter was actually that margins in Consumer Tissue decelerated sequentially. They were down sequentially and then also were up less on a year-over-year basis. So I was just curious kind of whats driving that? As you mentioned, there was some better volume performance in North America, the pricing is coming through, costs are easing. So just some conversation around Consumer Tissue margins and the path to recovery would be really helpful.

只是想問一下有關部門利潤的問題。本季度我突然想到的一件事實際上是消費紙巾的利潤率連續下降。它們依次下降，然後同比增幅也有所減少。所以我只是好奇是什麼推動了這一點？正如您提到的，北美的銷量表現有所改善，定價正在落實，成本正在下降。因此，圍繞消費紙巾利潤率和復甦之路進行一些對話將會非常有幫助。

Yes. No, absolutely. So a few things. I mean we don't speak about gross margin. But just to give you a context, Lauren, year-over-year, we did have a meaningful gain in gross margins on the segment, over 200 basis points. We -- on a quarter-over-quarter, you're always going to see a few puts and takes depending on mix and elements that flow through. But net-net, I mean, we are seeing an upward trend. So I wouldn't get too hung up on the overall movement quarter-to-quarter for the segment because overall, we are seeing an upward trend and recovery on the margins.

是的。不，絕對是。所以有幾件事。我的意思是我們不談論毛利率。但勞倫，為了給您提供一個背景信息，我們該細分市場的毛利率確實比去年同期有了顯著的增長，超過 200 個基點。我們——每個季度，你總是會看到一些看跌和看跌，具體取決於流經的組合和元素。但是淨淨，我的意思是，我們看到了上升趨勢。因此，我不會太關注該細分市場季度與季度的整體走勢，因為總體而言，我們看到了上升趨勢和利潤率復甦。

Okay. Okay. Still -- yes, okay, fine. Can I read into that, though, when you think about reinvestment in the business in any other particular areas? I know you've talked a lot about innovation and potential for elevate and expand to apply in Tissue as well as some of that seeding these investments? Or is it really just a matter of timing and mix?

好的。好的。不過——是的，好吧，好吧。不過，當您考慮在任何其他特定領域進行業務再投資時，我可以對此進行解讀嗎？我知道您已經談論了很多關於創新以及提升和擴展應用到組織中的潛力以及其中一些種子投資的問題？或者這真的只是時間和混合的問題？

Yes, it's a few things. I mean, one, obviously, we in North America have been doing the transition to the new artwork and some of the upgrades that we're doing in Cottonelle. So part of the thing has been our transition on shelf is taking a little bit longer than what we had planned. So that's playing a little bit in the mix. But overall, I mean, that's progressing. And in terms of the elevate, we're also having initiatives in the U.K. in Andrex, where we're doing some upgrades on the product line, and that's coming through. So that's progressing on that end. But Mike, I don't know if you want to add anything else on that end?

是的，有幾件事。我的意思是，很明顯，我們北美一直在向新藝術品過渡，以及我們在科託內爾正在進行的一些升級。因此，部分原因是我們的上架過渡時間比我們計劃的要長一些。所以這在混合中發揮了一點作用。但總的來說，我的意思是，這正在取得進展。在升級方面，我們還在英國的 Andrex 採取了一些舉措，我們正在那裡對產品線進行一些升級，並且這些升級正在實現。所以這方面正在取得進展。但是邁克，我不知道你是否還想在此基礎上添加其他內容？

Yes, Lauren, I mean I think when we talk about elevating that holds for all our businesses around the world. And certainly, Consumer Tissue, Personal Care, Professional, we're happy to invest in all those, and it's paying out, as Nelson just mentioned in the U.K. The organic growth was up double digits. Share continues to be strong and robust on Andrex. And part of that is because, along with some pricing we have upgraded the quality over the last couple of years. And so we feel good about that where we stand there. And really proud, if you look at year-on-year, I think our between-the-lines investment, we mentioned was up about 190 basis points over the prior year. And that reflects our commitment to the brands and our belief that we've got great commercial programming to invest behind.

是的，勞倫，我的意思是，當我們談論提升時，這適用於我們在世界各地的所有業務。當然，消費紙巾、個人護理、專業用品，我們很高興對所有這些領域進行投資，而且正如納爾遜剛剛在英國提到的那樣，它正在得到回報，有機增長達到了兩位數。 Andrex 的股價繼續強勁。部分原因是，除了一些定價外，我們在過去幾年中還提高了質量。所以我們對我們所處的位置感覺良好。真的很自豪，如果你看看同比，我認為我們提到的線外投資比上一年增加了約 190 個基點。這反映了我們對品牌的承諾以及我們的信念，即我們擁有出色的商業節目可以投資。

Okay. Great. Because the genesis of I guess, if the question also is like one topic that we've been getting a lot of questions of late is around pricing pressure in Consumer Tissue. Some of the discussion, particularly in Europe and U.K. from retailers pushing back on pricing or looking to roll back in Consumer Tissue. And feel a lot of questions about: a, if that would be an issue for Kimberly-Clark and -- specific to Europe; and b, the risk of that dynamic materializing in the U.S. So just maybe you can add perspective there as well. I think you've said a lot in terms of reinvestment and share momentum, but any perspective on pressure to give back pricing in that category in U.S. and Europe would be helpful.

好的。偉大的。因為我想，如果這個問題也像我們最近收到很多問題的一個話題一樣，那麼它的起源就是圍繞消費紙巾的定價壓力。其中一些討論，尤其是在歐洲和英國，零售商推遲了定價或希望減少消費紙巾的銷售。並感受到很多關於以下方面的問題：a，這是否會成為金佰利公司以及特定於歐洲的問題； b，這種動態在美國實現的風險所以也許你也可以在那裡添加觀點。我認為您在再投資和股票動力方面說了很多，但任何有關美國和歐洲該類別定價壓力的觀點都會有所幫助。

Yes. I'd say overall, Lauren, pricing initiatives, our net revenue management initiatives are on track, generally across our business, Personal Care, Professional and Consumer Tissue, we're cognizant of the same discussions and similar pressure. And we will see maybe a little bit more promotional activity than we've seen in the past, prior -- maybe in the prior 6 months. But I think thus far, it's -- we're not -- it's not showing up in the results or dramatically impacting our results. For the quarter, we had a very solid quarter across Western Europe demand was up about double digits. So our organic was up about double digits. Volume hanging in there pretty well.

是的。勞倫，我想說，總體而言，定價舉措、我們的淨收入管理舉措都步入正軌，一般來說，在我們的業務、個人護理、專業和消費紙巾領域，我們認識到相同的討論和類似的壓力。我們可能會看到比過去、之前——也許是前 6 個月——更多的促銷活動。但我認為到目前為止，它——我們沒有——它沒有出現在結果中，也沒有顯著影響我們的結果。本季度，西歐需求增長了約兩位數，表現非常強勁。所以我們的有機增長了大約兩位數。音量掛在那里相當好。

And so we feel good about where we are, but also recognize that, yes, it's going to be a competitive environment, and we have to be prepared for that. The great thing is, as you've heard us talk about, we've invested in enhancing our revenue growth management analytic capability. And so we feel like we'll be able to make the right investments at the right time that will be wise and not just overreact to things.

因此，我們對自己的處境感到滿意，但也認識到，是的，這將是一個充滿競爭的環境，我們必須為此做好準備。偉大的事情是，正如您所聽到的，我們已經投資於增強我們的收入增長管理分析能力。因此，我們覺得我們將能夠在正確的時間做出正確的投資，這將是明智的，而不僅僅是對事情反應過度。

Your next question is coming from Javier Escalante from Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Javier Escalante。

I do like to understand a little bit better the -- I think that you call it between the line spend in the SG&A line, which you do not break out. So if you can explain to us how much is this labor inflation versus more kind of like proactively investing in enhancing the products and the capabilities. And related to that and a follow-up to Lauren's question, you just did a strategic review and essentially exited Brazil, roll-down Indonesia. What is -- if you step back, the main difference between Kimberly-Clark and Procter, is that this international tissue business, could you explain the role of the international tissue business and whether the margin profile is materially lower to the Consumer Tissue in the U.S.?

我確實想更好地理解一點——我認為您將其稱為SG&A 線中的線支出，但您不會將其分解。因此，如果您能向我們解釋一下，這種勞動力通脹與主動投資於增強產品和能力的情況相比是多少。與此相關以及勞倫問題的後續內容，您剛剛進行了戰略審查，基本上退出了巴西，並縮減了印度尼西亞。如果您退後一步，金佰利和寶潔之間的主要區別在於，這家國際衛生紙業務，您能否解釋一下國際衛生紙業務的作用以及利潤狀況是否大幅低於消費紙巾業務。我們。？

Yes. Maybe -- Do you want to start with between the lines? And Javier, just so you know, between the lines is a big bucket for us, so it includes both the advertising and as you point out, some of our general administrative costs. And so maybe Nelson comment.

是的。也許——你想從字裡行間開始嗎？哈維爾，正如你所知，字裡行間對我們來說是一個很大的桶，所以它既包括廣告，也包括我們的一些一般管理費用。也許納爾遜會評論。

Sure. So yes, Javier, so to give you a sense, I mean, of the increase that we're seeing in between the lines about half of that would be on support behind the brands, the advertising and promotional activities, and it's largely advertising because of all the products that we've been not just launching, but upgrading in some of the campaigns that are underway. The other half really relates to a couple of things. One, we've been increasing investments behind certain capabilities, and that continues, revenue growth management, our digital agenda, which includes upgrades that we're doing to some of our systems, including the migration to S/4HANA and some of the other capabilities that we're laying on a multiyear basis across the enterprise. And then last but not least, is labor inflation, which, again, hits on the overheads and some of the compensation increases that really impact us in April, starting in the second quarter. So that -- because of the timing of our merit increase.

當然。所以，是的，哈維爾，我的意思是，為了讓您了解我們在字裡行間看到的增長，其中大約一半將來自品牌背後的支持、廣告和促銷活動，而且主要是廣告，因為我們不僅推出了所有產品，而且還在一些正在進行的活動中進行了升級。另一半確實與幾件事有關。第一，我們一直在增加對某些功能的投資，並且繼續增加收入增長管理、我們的數字議程，其中包括我們正在對某些系統進行的升級，包括遷移到 S/4HANA 和其他一些系統我們在整個企業中多年積累的能力。最後但並非最不重要的一點是勞動力通脹，這再次影響到管理費用和一些薪酬上漲，從第二季度開始，四月份對我們產生了真正的影響。所以——因為我們功德增長的時機。

Okay. And then maybe on the Consumer Tissue or maybe it's a portfolio question, Javier, I'd say, hey, we love all our businesses and the segments that we operate in. Certainly -- and as we talk about Elevate and Expand, we're elevating and expanding all those categories. And so we remain committed to that. That said, we are cognizant in the performance of some businesses especially in Consumer Tissue was a little bit more variable. And so I think we've been on the record in the past our Consumer Tissue in the North American -- North America is a little bit more profitable than some of our international businesses. But we have very strong profitable international business as well.

好的。然後，也許是關於消費紙巾，或者也許是一個投資組合問題，哈維爾，我想說，嘿，我們喜歡我們所有的業務和我們經營的細分市場。當然，當我們談論提升和擴展時，我們'重新提升和擴展所有這些類別。因此，我們仍然致力於這一點。也就是說，我們認識到一些業務的業績，尤其是消費紙巾業務的業績變化更大。因此，我認為我們過去在北美的消費紙巾業務的盈利能力比我們的一些國際業務要高一些。但我們也擁有非常強勁的盈利性國際業務。

And so the decision around exiting Brazil tissue, I think is specific to the conditions in Brazil. What I've said in the past around portfolio was "Hey, we're going to look to add businesses most -- with a greater focus on personal care," I would say. Internationally, where there's a lot of growth opportunity.

因此，我認為關於退出巴西組織的決定是針對巴西的具體情況的。我過去圍繞投資組合所說的是“嘿，我們將尋求增加最多的業務——更加關注個人護理，”我會說。在國際上，有很多增長機會。

Indonesia is one great example where while we just reduced our medium-term expectations for that business with the impairment, we still see a very long and bright future in that country for us, and we remain committed to Indonesia for long term because, at some point, it's going to be in the top three of the largest hypermarkets in the world, and it's probably around the corner for us. And so we remain excited about that. But that said, there are other markets that are more structurally challenged. And so Brazil tissue was one of those. And that was driven by we would say some policies that encourage capital investment into tissue making, and so there was a lot of capacity coming in, and we felt like the Neve business and brand would have been in better hands with Suzano than with us. And so we made that transaction. So I think our -- we're looking at -- we love all the sectors that we're in, but we're going to make decisions based on local market conditions and make sure our brands can be competitive for the long term.

印度尼西亞就是一個很好的例子，雖然我們剛剛降低了對該業務減值的中期預期，但我們仍然看到該國有著非常長遠和光明的未來，並且我們仍然致力於長期發展印度尼西亞，因為在某些方面重點是，它將躋身全球最大的大賣場前三名，而且對我們來說可能指日可待。因此我們對此仍然感到興奮。但話雖如此，還有其他市場面臨更多的結構性挑戰。巴西組織就是其中之一。這是由一些鼓勵資本投資到衛生紙製造的政策推動的，因此有大量產能湧入，我們覺得 Neve 業務和品牌在 Suzano 手中會比在我們手中更好。所以我們做了這筆交易。所以我認為我們——我們正在考慮——我們喜歡我們所處的所有行業，但我們將根據當地市場條件做出決策，並確保我們的品牌能夠長期具有競爭力。

So then as a follow-up, this is very interesting, but as a follow-up, shall we think that in countries where you have very large personal care businesses and some sort of ancillary tissue businesses like Brazil, for example, that you may continue divesting things like that, say, China or whatever, where you do have enough critical mass to run that business independently and do not need to have attached a low-margin tissue business?

那麼作為後續行動，這非常有趣，但作為後續行動，我們是否應該認為，在擁有非常大的個人護理業務和某種輔助紙巾業務的國家，例如巴西，您可能會繼續剝離類似的業務，比如說中國或其他什麼地方，你確實有足夠的臨界質量來獨立經營該業務，並且不需要附加低利潤的紙巾業務？

Yes. I guess it's always possible, Javier. I wouldn't over read into it. I mean we're comfortable with our businesses, and how they're performing where they are. But that said, I think if I would probably say we're going to stay close to local market conditions and make sure -- and this is something I'll talk about internally with our management, which is businesses need to perform for us. And so while we love all our businesses, they do need to perform. And performance is part of the game for us. And so that's probably the bigger barometer for us.

是的。我想這總是有可能的，哈維爾。我不會過度閱讀它。我的意思是，我們對我們的業務以及它們在當地的表現感到滿意。但話雖如此，我想如果我可能會說我們將密切關注當地市場狀況並確保——這是我將在內部與我們的管理層討論的事情，這是企業需要為我們執行的任務。因此，雖然我們熱愛我們所有的業務，但它們確實需要表現出色。對我們來說，性能是遊戲的一部分。所以這對我們來說可能是更大的晴雨表。

Your next question is coming from Chris Carey from Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的克里斯·凱里。

Can you perhaps just frame your expectations for price mix versus volumes for the full year or specifically for the back half of the year? And perhaps just related to that, how you might be thinking about the spending to reaccelerate volumes. Mike, I heard you say promotions might tick up a little bit. I don't know if that was a comment on any specific region. But some context on how you see volumes trending from here and the types of actions that you might be taking to drive a little bit better volume performance would be helpful.

您能否僅闡述一下您對全年或特別是下半年的價格組合與銷量的預期？也許與此相關的是，您可能會如何考慮重新加速銷量的支出。邁克，我聽說你說促銷活動可能會有所增加。我不知道這是否是針對任何特定地區的評論。但是，有關您如何看待此處的交易量趨勢以及您可能採取的操作類型以提高交易量性能的一些背景信息將會有所幫助。

Okay. Chris, let me start and then Nelson maybe give you some more specifics around the volume versus price. But we're pleased with our volume trends. Certainly, just to refresh your memory, Chris, we moved relatively early on pricing. We moved pretty quickly. And so a lot of our pricing went in last year maybe in the front half of the year, we should start to cycle the price element of the P&L as we approach the back half. And so what we would expect to see our volume trends improve. And we are encouraged because we have seen sequential volume improvement overall in the business and then specifically by sector kind of as we've gone through the year.

好的。克里斯，讓我開始，然後納爾遜可能會向您提供有關數量與價格的更多細節。但我們對我們的銷量趨勢感到滿意。當然，克里斯，為了讓您回憶一下，我們在定價方面的行動相對較早。我們移動得很快。因此，去年我們的很多定價可能是在今年上半年進行的，當我們接近下半年時，我們應該開始循環損益表的價格要素。因此，我們期望看到我們的銷量趨勢有所改善。我們受到鼓舞，因為我們看到整個業務的整體銷量連續改善，特別是在我們這一年中各個行業的銷量都有所改善。

And so we expect to continue to see that. That said, as I said on the call, our market share is a little soft, we were up or even in just below 40% of our cohorts, our market category combinations, which is a little less than we would prefer, right? We want to be over 50%. And so what are the big drivers behind that, Chris, I'd say a couple of things. One is we were quick on pricing. And so in the parlance of one of our general managers, we're seeing competition "scrape" us a little bit. And that means kind of lagging the price to take advantage perhaps on the share momentum side. And so that's one aspect. The other aspect is we are cycling a host of one-offs and supply challenges. It is also relevant to Lauren's question, which you asked about tissue margin. There's a lot of noise in our numbers just because we're now lapping the third order effects of the Texas storm. There's still supply challenges, et cetera. But that said, there's a bunch of one-off things related to both supply and the cycling that affect the business.

因此，我們預計會繼續看到這種情況。也就是說，正如我在電話會議上所說，我們的市場份額有點軟，我們的市場份額上升甚至略低於 40%，我們的市場類別組合比我們希望的要少一點，對嗎？我們希望超過 50%。那麼，克里斯，這背後的主要驅動因素是什麼，我想說幾件事。一是我們的定價速度很快。因此，用我們一位總經理的話說，我們看到競爭對我們造成了一些“磨損”。這意味著價格可能會落後於股價動能方面。這是一方面。另一方面是我們正在應對一系列一次性和供應方面的挑戰。這也與勞倫的問題相關，你問的是組織邊緣。我們的數字中有很多噪音，只是因為我們現在正在經歷德克薩斯風暴的三階效應。仍然存在供應挑戰等。但話雖如此，有很多與供應和循環相關的一次性因素會影響業務。

And then to be true, we definitely have some competitive issues that are, I would say, normal across our business, and we'd like to see a performance improve in a few markets, and that's why we want to continue to invest and we're committed to investing more behind our brands. We feel great about the innovation that we have coming generally globally, and we feel great about our commercial programs and recognize that there's better opportunities for us to beef up that our investment to support the brands. We're -- Chris, I'd say we're -- I'm not really focused on driving promotion to kind of earn back that share, maybe we would respond certainly to competitive conditions. But I'm much more focused on earning there for the long term, and that means kind of driving consumers or encouraging consumers to try our products and then having them stay there because they like the quality of our products. And so that's really our focus. Nelson, do you want to.

說實話，我們確實存在一些競爭問題，我想說，這些問題在我們的業務中是正常的，我們希望看到一些市場的業績有所改善，這就是為什麼我們想要繼續投資，我們致力於在我們的品牌背後投入更多資金。我們對全球範圍內的創新感到非常滿意，對我們的商業計劃也感到非常滿意，並認識到我們有更好的機會來加強我們的投資來支持品牌。我們 - 克里斯，我想說我們 - 我並不是真正專注於推動晉升以賺取回份額，也許我們肯定會對競爭條件做出反應。但我更注重長期盈利，這意味著推動消費者或鼓勵消費者嘗試我們的產品，然後讓他們留在那裡，因為他們喜歡我們產品的質量。這確實是我們的重點。納爾遜，你願意嗎？

Yes. And then to add some flavor, Chris, on the outlook and what we've seen in terms of volume. I mean, at some perspective, I mean, we've seen continued improvement in our volume trends if you step back, Q4 last year, volumes were down 7%. Q1 of this year, volumes were down 5% Q2. The quarter we just closed, volumes were down 3%. Many of the actions that we have to take to deal with the inflation, go back to the first half of last year, the majority of them. So as we step into the third quarter of the year and the fourth quarter, we will begin lapping some of them. And what we would expect at this point. And we're projecting is the volumes to continue to improve on a sequential basis as the year progresses and the overall revenue growth management actions should decrease in terms of the impact they're having on the top line growth. We've already seen that from a sequential quarter, Q1 to Q2, that came down, and then mix, we've been doing about a point, I would expect that to be the same as we progress.

是的。克里斯，然後補充一些關於前景和我們在數量方面所看到的情況的信息。我的意思是，從某種角度來看，如果退一步看，我們已經看到我們的銷量趨勢持續改善，去年第四季度，銷量下降了 7%。今年第一季度，第二季度銷量下降了 5%。我們剛剛結束的季度，銷量下降了 3%。我們應對通脹所採取的許多行動，大部分可以追溯到去年上半年。因此，當我們進入今年第三季度和第四季度時，我們將開始研磨其中的一些。以及我們此時所期望的。我們預計，隨著時間的推移，銷量將繼續環比改善，總體收入增長管理行動對營收增長的影響應該會減少。我們已經看到，從第一季度到第二季度，這一數字有所下降，然後混合起來，我們已經做了大約一個點，我希望這與我們的進展相同。

That's really helpful perspective. Just one follow-up from an input inflation perspective. Can you talk about what specifically improved relative to your prior expectations? And if you have any comments on phasing, clearly, we're getting into it seems a bit deflationary into the back half. Is that Q3 and Q4? Does that all hit in Q4? Any context on the phasing would also be helpful.

這確實是很有幫助的觀點。這只是從投入通脹角度來看的一個後續行動。您能談談相對於您之前的預期有哪些具體改進嗎？如果您對分階段有任何意見，很明顯，我們正在進入後半部分，這似乎有點通貨緊縮。是Q3和Q4嗎？這一切都會在第四季度發生嗎？有關分階段的任何背景信息也會有所幫助。

Yes. So just to give you a context, I mean, on -- we -- the latest guidance that we have on cost on input cost inflation is that it would be at around $100 million. So that's about $50 million better than what we were forecasting back in April when we last talked. Through the first half, we are at about $190 million negative, so it's an impact. So evidently, what's going to happen is we're seeing about a $90 million give or take benefit we go into the balance of the year. We will see some of that coming in, in Q3 and then the balance, obviously, in Q4.

是的。因此，為了給您提供一個背景信息，我的意思是，我們對投入成本通脹的最新指導是，它將在 1 億美元左右。因此，這比我們上次談話時 4 月份的預測高出約 5000 萬美元。上半年，我們的虧損約為 1.9 億美元，因此這是一個影響。很明顯，我們將看到今年餘下的捐贈或獲取收益約為 9000 萬美元。我們將在第三季度看到其中一些，然後顯然是在第四季度看到平衡。

What we're seeing is versus our prior outlook, the overall fiber complex has gotten a little bit better and distribution costs have gotten a little bit better. I will, however, just highlight that on a year-over-year basis, we're still seeing bulk and the overall fiber complex inflationary for us. Even though if you take it as a whole, the latest outlooks have fiber being year-on-year down in the mid-teens, if you aggregate everything. So net-net, that's come down. Distribution is about flat now year-over-year for us. And then the only big cost bucket that's down significantly, continues to be the rest in complex, which, again, that's down overall for the quarter, 50%, so -- and we're projecting about 40% down.

我們所看到的是，與我們之前的展望相比，整體光纖綜合體已經變得更好了，分銷成本也變得更好了。然而，我要強調的是，與去年同期相比，我們仍然看到散裝和整體纖維複合體的通貨膨脹。即使你把它作為一個整體來看，如果你把所有的東西都匯總起來的話，最新的展望顯示光纖同比下降了十幾歲。所以網絡網絡，這已經下來了。我們的分佈現在與去年同期基本持平。然後，唯一顯著下降的大成本仍然是綜合體的其餘部分，該季度總體下降了 50%，所以 - 我們預計下降約 40%。

Yes. I mean, Chris, the headline for me is the cost environment for us has stabilized. And that's really, really good news for us after cycling, I think 2021 and 2022 where we had record inflation for us. While it's still modestly inflationary, we can operate very well in a stable cost environment. And so we're seeing both input costs stabilize. And also the supply environment. While we still have some sporadic outages in supply it's much improved. And so we're bullish on the road ahead for us on the cost environment.

是的。我的意思是，克里斯，我的頭條新聞是我們的成本環境已經穩定。這對於騎自行車之後的我們來說確實是個好消息，我認為 2021 年和 2022 年我們的通貨膨脹率創歷史新高。雖然通脹仍然溫和，但我們可以在穩定的成本環境中良好運營。因此，我們看到投入成本都趨於穩定。還有供給環境。雖然我們仍然存在一些零星的供應中斷，但情況已經大大改善。因此，我們對未來的成本環境持樂觀態度。

Your next question is coming from Dara Mohsenian from Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Dara Mohsenian。

So I just wanted to return to share for a bit. I mean your comments seemed more glass have full here in terms of sequential improvement in share. But if we look specifically at U.S. scanner data, some fairly pronounced year-over-year share losses in Q2 and Consumer Tissue and diapers. So I was just hoping you could put the U.S. scanner data in context? And then second, plans to drive improved share trends going forward, it sounds like perhaps there might be a bit more promotion but not necessarily big focus. Innovation ramps up. Is that sort of the plan to drive improved share from here? Or how do you think about the share trends in the back half of the year, specifically in the U.S.

所以我只是想回來分享一下。我的意思是，就份額的連續改進而言，您的評論似乎更充分。但如果我們專門看一下美國的掃描儀數據，就會發現第二季度以及消費紙巾和尿布的份額出現了相當明顯的同比下降。所以我只是希望你能將美國掃描儀數據放在上下文中？其次，計劃推動未來股票趨勢的改善，聽起來可能會有更多的促銷活動，但不一定是重點。創新不斷加速。這是從這裡提高份額的計劃嗎？或者您如何看待下半年的股價趨勢，特別是在美國？

Yes, Dara, definitely, I believe the shares will improve. We feel very confident in our programming and our innovation that's coming. And year-to-date, we feel really good about what that's done in the marketplace. I would say the recent softness, as I mentioned earlier, Dara, primarily related to the relatively faster pace of our price advantages last year -- price advances last year. And so that kind of really is the primary effect. But I would also say, in North America specifically, we are facing a fairly tough comp. Just to refresh your memory, I think Personal Care. In Personal Care, we were up 14% in the year ago quarter and across both Personal Care and Tissue, market shares were a bit elevated. That was an artifact.

是的，達拉，當然，我相信股價會上漲。我們對我們的計劃和即將到來的創新非常有信心。今年迄今為止，我們對市場上所做的事情感到非常滿意。我想說，正如我之前提到的，達拉，最近的疲軟主要與我們去年價格優勢相對較快的步伐有關——去年的價格上漲。所以這確實是主要的效果。但我還要說，特別是在北美，我們面臨著相當艱難的競爭。只是為了刷新你的記憶，我想是個人護理。在個人護理領域，我們比去年同期增長了 14%，在個人護理和紙巾領域，市場份額略有上升。那是一件神器。

And I think we talked about it this time a year ago, which was we're out of -- our supply was tight in the first and second quarter of 2021. And so we had the kind of restock impact and the kind of reselling impact in the year ago quarter, and we're cycling that now. So we did see our shares were higher in the year ago quarter. higher than they historically were. And I think that was related to the, I would say, coming back in the business in Q2 of 2022. But that said, we're not satisfied with our share performance, and definitely want to be up or even in over half. And so we are committed.

我想我們一年前的這個時候就討論過這個問題，當時我們的供應在 2021 年第一季度和第二季度很緊張。因此我們產生了補貨影響和轉售影響去年同期，我們現在正在循環這一點。所以我們確實看到去年同期我們的股價更高。高於歷史水平。我認為這與 2022 年第二季度的業務回歸有關。但話雖如此，我們對我們的股價表現並不滿意，並且肯定希望上漲甚至超過一半。所以我們承諾。

We feel very good about our programming, especially in North America. I mentioned our baby bloods advertising and our product improvements in North America on Huggies. And so we feel good about where we are, and we're going to continue to invest in the brands and make sure that we continue to touch baseball our consumers and encourage them to try our products and return.

我們對我們的節目感覺非常好，尤其是在北美。我提到了好奇公司在北美的嬰兒血廣告和產品改進。因此，我們對自己的現狀感到滿意，我們將繼續投資於品牌，確保我們繼續感動消費者，鼓勵他們嘗試我們的產品並回歸。

Okay. Great. And then on the innovation front, you sound excited there. Any thoughts on if the contribution to sales growth should pick up significantly on innovation as we look out over the next couple of years versus the last couple of years any conceptual thoughts there would be helpful.

好的。偉大的。然後在創新方面，你聽起來很興奮。當我們展望未來幾年與過去幾年的情況時，任何關於創新對銷售增長的貢獻是否應該顯著增加的想法都會有所幫助。

Well, just to point out, Dara, I think -- I don't have the numbers for this year yet. But last year, our contribution of sales from innovation was probably among the highest in the industry. And so we do track -- we do have a couple of internal metrics around net incrementality and then percent of sales related to the innovation. And so we felt very strong last year. And so we feel good about that. But that said, some of the things that I just showed on the slides in our presentation this morning, we feel good about -- really good about the technology and the product innovation on the premium side that we're having in diapers, especially in China, in China, organic was up nearly double digit against the backdrop where the category is declining double digit. And so -- and we've doubled our super premium mix over the last year or so.

好吧，只是想指出，達拉，我想——我還沒有今年的數字。但去年，我們創新對銷售額的貢獻可能是業內最高的。因此，我們確實進行了跟踪——我們確實有一些關於淨增量的內部指標，以及與創新相關的銷售百分比。所以去年我們感覺非常強大。所以我們對此感覺良好。但話雖如此，我今天早上在演示文稿中的幻燈片上展示的一些內容，我們對尿布領域的技術和高端產品創新感到非常滿意，尤其是在尿布方面。在中國，有機食品增長了近兩位數，而該類別卻呈兩位數下降。因此，在過去一年左右的時間裡，我們的超級優質產品組合增加了一倍。

And then as I mentioned on the slides, we've launched two really exciting products, what we're calling a Tier 6 funnel that features really a 2-zone liner that one that handles the urine and one that handles the solid waste, as you know, I'd like to say poop. And then we have something that we're calling oxygen bar pro, which is really, really high breathability diaper, which moms in China would really love. And so we feel good about that. And we're bringing technologies like those around the world.

然後，正如我在幻燈片中提到的，我們推出了兩款非常令人興奮的產品，我們稱之為 Tier 6 漏斗，它實際上具有 2 區襯裡，一個用於處理尿液，一個用於處理固體廢物，如你知道，我想說的是便便。然後我們有一種叫做“Oxy bar pro”的產品，這是一種非常非常高透氣性的尿布，中國媽媽們會非常喜歡。所以我們對此感覺良好。我們正在帶來與世界各地類似的技術。

Your next question is coming from Nik Modi from RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的尼克·莫迪。

Mike, I wanted to just kind of stick on the innovation topic. I mean I think the messaging from you guys has been very clear in terms of how active they're going to be later this year and probably even going into 2024. But one of the common piece of the feedback I get from the retail community is that everyone is really going to be very, very active innovation because there was a lot of product that was not launched during the COVID time frame. So I just wanted to kind of get to a reaction to that and thoughts on that. And could we potentially see maybe some unexpected levels of spending just because you're going to have to compete with so many other active innovation pipelines and shop (inaudible) is finite.

邁克，我想繼續討論創新主題。我的意思是，我認為你們傳達的信息非常明確，即他們今年晚些時候甚至可能進入 2024 年的活躍程度。但我從零售社區得到的常見反饋之一是每個人都會非常非常積極地進行創新，因為有很多產品在新冠疫情期間沒有推出。所以我只是想了解對此的反應和想法。我們是否可能會看到一些意想不到的支出水平，僅僅因為你將不得不與許多其他活躍的創新渠道競爭，而商店（聽不清）是有限的。

Yes. I mean, Nik, we feel good about our investment levels. I mean they have ramped up significantly over the last 5 years. And again, as I just mentioned, we're up about 190 basis points year-to-date between the lines, of which Nelson, you said about half is on the advertising side. And really, the model is we're investing in the advertising primarily to support the innovation. And so we feel very good about our programming. And as I've said on prior calls and Alison, our Chief Growth Officer, has said at CAGNY presentations, we're really focused on kind of big unmet needs or internally, we'll call those demand spaces where we feel like, hey, there's important things that the consumers are looking for out of the category, in a category like diapers or adult care that may be around absorption or protection.

是的。我的意思是，尼克，我們對我們的投資水平感覺良好。我的意思是，他們在過去 5 年裡有了顯著的增長。再說一遍，正如我剛才提到的，今年迄今為止，我們的漲幅約為 190 個基點，其中尼爾森，你說其中大約一半來自廣告方面。實際上，我們投資廣告的模式主要是為了支持創新。所以我們對我們的編程感覺非常好。正如我在之前的電話會議上所說的以及我們的首席增長官艾莉森在 CAGNY 演示中所說的那樣，我們真正關注的是未滿足的巨大需求，或者在內部，我們將這些需求空間稱為我們認為的需求空間，嘿，消費者正在尋找該類別之外的重要產品，例如尿布或成人護理品等可能與吸收或保護相關的產品。

I mentioned skin health earlier, which is something that hasn't been a big part of this category, what we think is a very important part of the category, particularly as it relates to solid waste. And then comfort fit breathability are all big factors. And so those are kind of big areas for us to get better in where I feel like the categories can do a much better job over time. So -- and we shared a lot of our thinking around innovation with our customers over the long term, and they remain very excited and we're receiving very strong customer support for innovation.

我之前提到過皮膚健康，這並不是該類別的重要組成部分，但我們認為這是該類別中非常重要的一部分，特別是因為它與固體廢物有關。然後舒適度、貼合性、透氣性都是重要因素。因此，這些都是我們需要改進的重要領域，我認為隨著時間的推移，這些類別可以做得更好。因此，從長遠來看，我們與客戶分享了很多關於創新的想法，他們仍然非常興奮，我們正在獲得非常強大的客戶對創新的支持。

So I think your point, yes -- is there going to be more innovation from other manufacturers and across the category? Yes. But our focus is on driving the big innovations that we have and making sure that we invest materially behind those to make sure that we can drive the conversion of the [combine] of the consumer.

所以我認為你的觀點是，其他製造商和整個類別是否會有更多創新？是的。但我們的重點是推動我們擁有的重大創新，並確保我們在這些創新背後進行大量投資，以確保我們能夠推動消費者[聯合]的轉變。

Your next question is coming from Anna Lizzul from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Anna Lizzul。

Just as a follow-up to Chris' question, I wanted to ask on how you're viewing the health of the consumer. You've mentioned a bit of bifurcation this year between the low and higher income consumers, on their ability to absorb price. And in the latest scanner data from this morning, it implies some volumes are continuing to decelerate while you're getting on price. So as a result, I was wondering if we should expect softer volumes to continue in Q3, offset by better pricing, and just how you're seeing these trends play out for the second half of the year between Q3 and Q4.

作為克里斯問題的後續，我想問一下您如何看待消費者的健康狀況。您提到今年低收入消費者和高收入消費者在吸收價格的能力上存在一些分歧。在今天早上的最新掃描數據中，這意味著在價格上漲的同時，一些交易量仍在繼續下降。因此，我想知道我們是否應該預計第三季度銷量將繼續疲軟，並被更好的定價所抵消，以及您如何看待這些趨勢在第三季度和第四季度之間的下半年的表現。

Yes. And I would say consumer demand remains resilient. Our categories, thus far, remain healthy and demand has been robust. Just to give you a few numbers, I mean, North American consumer across our categories, it's not us, just the categories, up high single digit. Western Europe which is a big developed market for us, up teens. In Latin America, double digits, case professional globally was up double digit. And so I would say the category overall demand remains pretty robust. Are we aware of concerns around the corner regarding -- related to the economy and economic pressures, for sure. And we talk about that all the time, thus far, it has not materialized. In the second quarter, the elasticity impact has remained muted, somewhat muted.

是的。我想說，消費者需求仍然具有彈性。到目前為止，我們的品類仍然保持健康，需求也很強勁。只是給你一些數字，我的意思是，北美消費者在我們的品類中，不是我們，只是品類，增長了高個位數。西歐對於我們青少年來說是一個很大的發達市場。在拉丁美洲，全球案例專業人數增長了兩位數。因此，我想說該類別的總體需求仍然相當強勁。當然，我們是否意識到與經濟和經濟壓力有關的擔憂即將到來？我們一直在談論這個，但到目前為止，它還沒有實現。第二季度，彈性影響仍然微弱，甚至有些微弱。

Just to give you an example on diapers in the category for the quarter, price was up 6% and volume was up 1%, so that would probably say, the elasticity impact has not been as we typically model. And so I'd say on that side, it does reflect the essential nature of our categories. So our volume trends as we kind of cycle our pricing from a year ago, we expect our volume trends to continue to improve, and we think should improve in the back half, in addition driven by the commercial programming innovation that we've been talking about. And so I think overall, I'd say healthy, not seeing a whole lot of broad-scale downturning. We do see in pockets.

舉個本季度該類別尿布的例子，價格上漲了 6%，銷量上漲了 1%，所以這可能會說，彈性影響並不像我們通常建模的那樣。所以我想說，從這方面來說，它確實反映了我們類別的本質。因此，當我們從一年前開始循環定價時，我們的銷量趨勢預計我們的銷量趨勢將繼續改善，並且我們認為下半年應該會有所改善，此外還受到我們一直在談論的商業節目創新的推動關於。因此，我認為總體而言，我認為是健康的，沒有看到大規模的經濟衰退。我們確實看到了口袋裡的東西。

There is continued demand for premium in big development markets like the U.S., like China, even in Brazil and Argentina, we're seeing actually the premium tiers start to grow and the value tiers contract a little bit. There are some pockets of downturning. We're seeing that in Southeast Asia, some markets in Latin America. But -- and to manage through that, we're going to continue to sharpen our value propositions. I mean, we're very interested in serving all consumers as category leaders, we feel like we need to serve both the consumers that are looking for premium products, but also the ones on the value side as well. And so we have a broad portfolio that spans value to premium.

在美國、中國等大型發展市場，甚至在巴西和阿根廷，對高端市場的需求持續存在，我們實際上看到高端市場開始增長，而價值市場則略有收縮。也有一些地方出現了下滑。我們在東南亞和拉丁美洲的一些市場看到了這一點。但是，為了解決這個問題，我們將繼續強化我們的價值主張。我的意思是，我們非常有興趣作為品類領導者為所有消費者提供服務，我們覺得我們既需要為尋求優質產品的消費者提供服務，也需要為那些追求價值的消費者提供服務。因此，我們擁有涵蓋價值和溢價的廣泛投資組合。

And we're doing things like adjusting counts to make sure our large packs remain competitive and affordable. We're sharpening our entry price points in small-format stores to make sure that consumers can afford to be in the category. And then probably most importantly, in my mind is, we've talked a lot about innovation. We are doing a better job of accelerating or cascading that innovation through our tiers from premium to value. And so that's kind of how we'll manage through it.

我們正在做一些事情，比如調整數量，以確保我們的大包裝保持競爭力和價格實惠。我們正在提高小型商店的入門價格，以確保消費者能夠負擔得起該類別的產品。在我看來，最重要的是，我們已經談論了很多關於創新的話題。我們正在更好地通過我們的從高端到價值的層級來加速或級聯創新。這就是我們將如何應對的方式。

That's very helpful. And you also talked a bit about promotion here. I know you're not necessarily interested in getting back to pre-COVID levels of promotion, investing a little bit more in marketing, with your current levels of marketing spend versus peers, potentially spending more. Do you feel that your marketing spend here is efficient versus others in the industry?

這非常有幫助。您在這裡也談到了一些關於晉升的問題。我知道您不一定有興趣回到新冠疫情之前的促銷水平，在營銷方面多投入一點，以您當前的營銷支出水平與同行相比，可能會花費更多。您認為與業內其他公司相比，您在這裡的營銷支出是否高效？

Well, part -- I'll answer the second part first, Anna. We are -- I would say we're highly efficient on the marketing side. I mean, we've invested quite a bit over the last several years around revenue management analytics, marketing ROI or analytics. And so maybe to a fault, where we're perhaps overly analytical in terms of how we invest. But in general, I feel very good about the returns are getting -- we're getting, which is why -- which is also why it gives us the confidence to invest more. We recognize we're not spending fully at the levels of some of our competitors, but we've made significant progress over the last few years.

好吧，部分——我先回答第二部分，安娜。我想說，我們在營銷方面非常高效。我的意思是，過去幾年我們在收入管理分析、營銷投資回報率或分析方面投入了大量資金。因此，我們在投資方式方面可能過度分析，這可能是一個錯誤。但總的來說，我對所獲得的回報感到非常滿意——我們正在獲得回報，這就是原因——這也是為什麼它讓我們有信心進行更多投資。我們認識到，我們的支出並未完全達到某些競爭對手的水平，但我們在過去幾年中取得了重大進展。

I think we're up several hundred or a few hundred basis points in advertising spending over the last 5 years. And so we're, I would say, pleased with that progress, but not satisfied. And part of the whole reason why we're very focused on being disciplined about how we drive both revenue volume mix, innovation is that we feel like it's important to continue and invest behind these brands because that's the way that we can drive category growth and serve our consumers better.

我認為過去五年我們的廣告支出增加了數百個基點。因此，我想說，我們對這一進展感到滿意，但並不滿足。我們非常注重如何推動收入組合和創新，部分原因是我們認為繼續投資這些品牌很重要，因為這是我們推動品類增長和創新的方式。更好地服務我們的消費者。

And Anna, another point on the investment. Keep in mind that we have three segments, and we don't invest at the same level in each segment. So what we disclosed is a total number for the company. So if you take as an example, K-C Professional, the level of investment behind K-C Professional is not going to be anywhere near what we're doing on personal care. And if you look at Consumer Tissue, it will vary by market. So we look at that very closely. And as Mike said, we are very focused on return on investment and being efficient on those dollars that we spend per segment.

安娜，關於投資的另一點。請記住，我們有三個細分市場，並且我們不會在每個細分市場進行相同水平的投資。所以我們披露的是公司的總數。因此，如果您以 K-C Professional 為​​例，K-C Professional 背後的投資水平將不會與我們在個人護理方面所做的投資水平相媲美。如果你看看消費紙巾，你會發現它會因市場而異。所以我們非常仔細地研究這一點。正如邁克所說，我們非常注重投資回報率以及我們在每個細分市場上花費的資金的效率。

Your next question is coming from Andrea Tashira from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Tashira。

Just first on the pricing. I have a question for both you, Mike, and also a clarification for Nelson. On the pricing side, you're getting obviously strong realization, but lapping the pricing that you mentioned like you are ahead of your competitors. So what are you embedding into the second half? Just to be clear, it seems like the guide -- the new guide at midpoint implies about 3% organic in the second half. So how much do you expect? And it sounds as if you're expecting an inflection in volumes at some point? I don't know -- I mean, you said sequentially better, of course, you had negative in the quarter. So just to clarify, what we're expecting for the third quarter and potentially the fourth.

首先是定價。邁克，我有一個問題想問你們，也想請尼爾森澄清一下。在定價方面，您顯然獲得了強烈的認識，但您提到的定價就像您領先於競爭對手一樣。那麼你在下半場嵌入了什麼？需要明確的是，這似乎是指南——中點的新指南意味著下半年有機率約為 3%。那麼你期望多少？聽起來您似乎預計在某個時候音量會發生變化？我不知道——我的意思是，你說連續更好，當然，你在這個季度有負數。所以只是為了澄清一下，我們對第三季度甚至第四季度的預期。

And then Nelson, on the gross margin side, the $9 million benefit from prior outlook. My math is like about 45 basis points benefit for the year. Your tax benefit from the impairment is another, I think, $0.05. So how should we be thinking of your EPS guidance raise, this 45 basis points benefit would go in flow through EBIT, it seems. I think you're flowing the whole portion, so in other words, you're not embedding additional promo pressure or marketing pressure in your outlook.

然後 Nelson，在毛利率方面，900 萬美元受益於之前的展望。我的計算是，今年的收益約為 45 個基點。我認為，您從減值中獲得的稅收優惠是 0.05 美元。那麼我們應該如何考慮每股收益指導的提高，這 45 個基點的收益似乎將通過息稅前利潤流入。我認為你正在流動整個部分，所以換句話說，你沒有在你的前景中嵌入額外的促銷壓力或營銷壓力。

Yes. Andrea, yes, thanks for the question. I don't know if I can -- how well I can answer it all because I don't think we outlook kind of the components of price/mix volume. However, I would say, am I expecting an inflection on volume? For sure, at some point. I don't know when that's going to be. But at some point, I want volumes to be positive. And just to give you a refresher memory, pre-COVID, I think for the 3 years leading up to our -- a lot of our revenue growth was primarily volume driven. And so I do expect us and just why we're investing in innovation and commercial programs. For the business to grow healthy long term, we need the volumes to be up. And so yes, for sure, I'm expecting an inflection in the point. I'm not calling...

是的。安德里亞，是的，謝謝你的提問。我不知道我是否可以——我能回答得怎麼樣，因為我認為我們不會展望價格/混合數量的組成部分。然而，我想說，我是否期待成交量的變化？當然，在某個時候。我不知道那會是什麼時候。但在某些時候，我希望交易量能夠達到正值。只是為了讓您重溫一下新冠疫情之前的記憶，我認為在我們的收入增長之前的三年裡，我們的大部分收入增長主要是由銷量驅動的。因此，我確實對我們抱有期望，也正是我們投資創新和商業項目的原因。為了使業務長期健康發展，我們需要增加銷量。所以，是的，當然，我期待著這一點的轉變。我不打電話...

In 2023, I'm sorry to -- just to make...

2023 年，我很抱歉——只是為了……

Again, I said our volume trends are improving. I can't give you the inflection point, and I'm not going to forecast it or give guidance on an inflection point. However, I would point out the majority of our pricing initiatives were more front-end loaded or front-half loaded last year. And so we are we are starting to cycle those. And so I would expect our -- the contribution of revenue from price to diminish and hopefully, the contribution to revenue from volume and mix to continue to improve.

我再說一遍，我們的銷量趨勢正在改善。我無法給你拐點，我也不會預測拐點或就拐點提供指導。然而，我要指出的是，去年我們的大部分定價舉措更多是前端加載或前半加載。所以我們開始循環這些。因此，我預計價格對收入的貢獻會減少，並且希望銷量和組合對收入的貢獻能夠繼續改善。

So I would point Andrea to the following. We've seen sequentially in the last couple of quarters, an improvement of about 200 basis points in volume. So we went from down 7% to down 5% to down 3%. Now as Mike said, we're not going -- we don't forecast or disclose the next quarter, it's breakdown, et cetera. But clearly, you're seeing that the volumes have been improving sequentially. And that has to do one, with the pricing, but also with some of the innovation and the products we have been putting out in the marketplace and the increased investments behind the brands. So yes, we are expecting volumes to improve continuously. I mean that's our expectation.

所以我想向 Andrea 指出以下幾點。在過去的幾個季度中，我們連續看到交易量增加了約 200 個基點。所以我們從下降 7% 到下降 5%，再到下降 3%。現在，正如邁克所說，我們不會去 - 我們不會預測或披露下一個季度，它的崩潰等等。但顯然，您會看到銷量一直在連續改善。這與定價有關，也與我們在市場上推出的一些創新和產品以及品牌背後增加的投資有關。所以，是的，我們預計銷量會不斷提高。我的意思是這是我們的期望。

We are expecting revenue growth management, realization to be less of a driver. And again, that has played out over the last few quarters, and as I explained earlier. So that's kind of the way to think about it as the year progresses. And yes, we will get back to positive volumes. That's the plan on that end. In terms of the operating profit, again, I'll try to address the question. So, your point around what are we flowing? How is it going? We've got a few things playing out in terms of operating profit. I mean, one, we have a slightly better performance in the first half, and we're flowing part of that through because we -- that's coming through the actuals.

我們預計收入增長管理、變現將不再是驅動因素。正如我之前解釋的那樣，這種情況在過去幾個季度中已經發生了。因此，隨著時間的推移，這就是思考這個問題的方式。是的，我們將恢復正產量。這就是這方面的計劃。就營業利潤而言，我將再次嘗試解決這個問題。那麼，您的觀點是我們正在流動什麼？最近好嗎？在營業利潤方面，我們有一些事情正在發生。我的意思是，第一，我們上半場的表現稍好一些，我們正在將其中的一部分通過，因為我們——這是通過實際情況來實現的。

But also, we're having a better outlook on costs, and that's also equating into better performance on the outlook for EBIT, which I believe that's the question you had. For EPS, there are a few puts and takes. In the quarter, yes, tax rate was a bit of a driver, but we're still expecting the tax rate for the year to be in the 23% to 25%, so think of that more as a timing. We're not moving away from the guidance in terms of tax. And then between the lines, there's really not much of a bigger driver, apart from that, that I would highlight at this point.

而且，我們對成本的前景有了更好的看法，這也相當於息稅前利潤的前景更好，我相信這就是您所提出的問題。對於每股收益，有一些看跌期權。是的，在本季度，稅率起到了一定的推動作用，但我們仍然預計今年的稅率在 23% 到 25% 之間，所以更多地將其視為一個時機。我們不會放棄稅收方面的指導。除此之外，我現在要強調的是，實際上並沒有什麼更大的驅動因素。

Your next question is coming from Jason English from Goldman Sachs.

你們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jason English。

Congrats on a solid first half of the year. A couple of comments so far our answers to the questions that those you around market share have focused on competitors that are lagging your price increases. As you noted, those price increases have been in place for pretty long now. It's not come for competitors to lag pricing by a couple of months, but it is uncommon to have a lag for a couple of quarters that follows. So I imagine your assumption and our assumption should be that they're just not going to follow. And if that's the case, do you accept these market share losses? Like you're just going to live with them, or should we expect you to have to close those price gaps to try to regain that market share?

恭喜您今年上半年表現出色。到目前為止，我們對有關市場份額的問題的回答主要集中在落後於您的價格上漲的競爭對手上。正如您所指出的，這些價格上漲已經持續了很長時間。競爭對手的定價不會滯後幾個月，但隨後幾個季度出現滯後的情況並不常見。所以我想你的假設和我們的假設應該是他們不會遵循。如果是這樣的話，您是否接受這些市場份額的損失？就像您將與他們一起生活，還是我們應該期望您必須縮小這些價格差距才能重新獲得市場份額？

Yes. A couple of things, Jason. I think great point. Thing I'll say is, generally, at this point, I would say, we've seen list prices move. But when I say "scraping" or your word lagging, I'd say we have seen a little bit higher promotion in some markets, particularly in Latin America, in Brazil, for instance, we've seen continued promotional activity. So I think that has been what we've observed more commonly. The list prices had lagged for a period. At this point, I'd say a lot of the brands have moved as well. And so overall, I'd say the tactic is around the promotional side.

是的。有幾件事，傑森。我認為很重要。我要說的是，一般來說，在這一點上，我會說，我們已經看到標價發生變化。但當我說“刮擦”或你的詞滯後時，我想說我們在一些市場看到了更高的促銷活動，特別是在拉丁美洲，例如在巴西，我們看到了持續的促銷活動。所以我認為這是我們更常見的觀察到的情況。標價已經滯後了一段時間。在這一點上，我想說很多品牌也已經發生了變化。總的來說，我認為該策略是圍繞促銷方面的。

And as I've mentioned, Jason, hey, we're going to be smart about it. It's not the way that we think is the valuable way to build the business in these categories. And so -- but we have invested in RGM capability. We do know the analytics, and we can make wise investments around promotion. The bigger thing is, and I think to your point, yes, I'm not going to live it. But we have to grow shares over the long term to sustain the business just like we have to have volumes up. And so market shares need to grow. That's why our goal is to be up or even in more than -- in about half or more, and that's the goal. And so -- but that's also why you've heard us talk quite a bit about our innovation and commercial programs.

正如我所提到的，傑森，嘿，我們會聰明地對待它。我們認為這不是在這些類別中建立業務的有價值的方式。所以，我們已經投資了 RGM 能力。我們確實了解分析，並且可以圍繞促銷進行明智的投資。更重要的是，我認為就你的觀點而言，是的，我不會活下去。但從長遠來看，我們必須增加份額才能維持業務，就像我們必須增加銷量一樣。因此市場份額需要增長。這就是為什麼我們的目標是提高甚至超過一半或更多，這就是目標。所以——但這也是為什麼你聽到我們大量談論我們的創新和商業計劃。

That's why we spend a lot of time with consumers talking about them and spend a lot of time with our customers talking about them, and we feel good about where we are. But I think you're certainly pointing to the one area that I feel like we really need to improve, and we're committed to doing that.

這就是為什麼我們花大量時間與消費者談論它們，並花大量時間與我們的客戶談論它們，我們對自己的處境感到滿意。但我認為你肯定指出了我認為我們確實需要改進的一個領域，並且我們致力於這樣做。

Your next question is coming from Peter Grom from UBS.

你們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的彼得·格羅姆。

So I guess I kind of wanted to get some more color on what's embedded in the outlook from a gross margin perspective. I think previously, the expectation was 230 basis points. You reiterated your outlook for an increase in that spend of 100 bps this morning. So is the expectation for 250 basis points now? The premise of the question is it just seems that, that would imply that gross margin improvement would kind of taper off in the back half of the year? And just given what you're seeing in terms of cost pressures and productivity that would seem somewhat conservative. So just if you could help us understand the outlook for gross working today and any phasing in the back half of the year, that would be helpful.

所以我想我想從毛利率的角度對前景中的內容有更多的了解。我認為之前的預期是230個基點。今天早上您重申了對支出增加 100 個基點的預期。那麼現在的預期是250個基點嗎？問題的前提是，這似乎意味著毛利率的改善將在下半年逐漸減弱？考慮到您在成本壓力和生產率方面所看到的情況，這似乎有些保守。因此，如果您能幫助我們了解今天總工作的前景以及下半年的任何階段，那將會有所幫助。

Yes, sure. Let me walk a little bit through the outlook and some of the components that we have. And as a reminder, Peter, what I stated at the last call was that our expectation was at least to 230 basis points because it was a straight math. Obviously, we've reached 34% gross margins in the second quarter. We're very pleased with the progress that has been made as we seek to recover back the pre-COVID levels of 35% and then expand from there. So we've had two quarters of very strong gains in gross margin. And obviously, as we go into the back half of the year, I'd say two things. One, we do expect to have year-over-year gains in gross margins. We do expect that gross margin -- margins as a whole, gross operating profit should expand in the second half, but not at the pace that we saw in the first half.

是的，當然。讓我簡單介紹一下我們的前景和一些組件。彼得，提醒一下，我在上次電話會議上所說的是，我們的預期至少是 230 個基點，因為這是一個直接的數學計算。顯然，我們第二季度的毛利率達到了 34%。我們對所取得的進展感到非常滿意，因為我們力求恢復到新冠疫情前 35% 的水平，然後再擴大規模。因此，我們的毛利率已經有兩個季度非常強勁的增長。顯然，當我們進入今年下半年時，我會說兩件事。第一，我們確實預計毛利率將同比增長。我們確實預計毛利率——整體利潤率、總營業利潤應該會在下半年擴大，但不會達到我們上半年看到的速度。

So as you're thinking about your numbers, that's the way I would think about it. So we would exit the year definitely stronger. The implied number, yes, as you say, would be $250 million on the gross margin. But that again, that's at least that's the way I would characterize that because obviously, we've been expanding ahead of that year-to-date. As you think about the balance of the year, I'd also like to highlight a few things. On the outlook on costs, we have not changed the currency impact that we foresee. We only took down costs by about $50 million. We still expect the full year to be around the $300 million to $400 million of inflation in currency.

因此，當你考慮你的數字時，我也會這樣考慮。因此，我們今年結束時肯定會更加強勁。是的，正如你所說，隱含的數字是毛利率 2.5 億美元。但同樣，這至少是我的描述方式，因為顯然，我們已經在那年迄今為止之前進行了擴張。當你思考今年剩下的時間時，我還想強調一些事情。關於成本前景，我們沒有改變我們預計的貨幣影響。我們只降低了約 5000 萬美元的成本。我們仍然預計全年的貨幣通脹率將在 3 億至 4 億美元左右。

And then in the other costs, we still expect around $200 million. It's been playing out in the first half right around the level we expected. So net-net, good progress on margins. We're pleased with how that's coming along. We expect to continue to make gains but not at the same pace as what we did in the first half.

然後在其他成本方面，我們仍然預計在 2 億美元左右。上半場的表現與我們預期的水平相當。因此，利潤率方面取得了良好進展。我們對進展感到滿意。我們預計將繼續取得進展，但速度不會與上半年相同。

Yes. And maybe, Peter, I'll just add, just the outlook, as Nelson just teed up, really does reflect the strength of our first half and our confidence in our underlying plan. As I mentioned earlier, our categories thus far remained healthy and demand has been robust. We have strong innovation and commercial lineup, and we feel great to be investing more in that. The cost environment has been stable. And so while it's still a headwind, I would say, we're seeing glimpses of reversion, and so that's a good thing. But the other part of it in our outlook embedded in it is, we do expect ongoing volatility. And so certainly, as you're well aware, there's a lot of economic uncertainty in our major markets, soft versus a hard landing and the implications for consumer spending first and foremost. We're still dealing with a lot of political uncertainty, including the effects of the war.

是的。彼得，我想補充一點，尼爾森剛剛準備好的前景確實反映了我們上半場的實力以及我們對基本計劃的信心。正如我之前提到的，到目前為止，我們的品類仍然保持健康，需求也很強勁。我們擁有強大的創新和商業陣容，我們很高興能夠在這方面進行更多投資。成本環境一直穩定。因此，儘管這仍然是一個逆風，但我想說，我們已經看到了回歸的曙光，所以這是一件好事。但我們的展望中的另一部分是，我們確實預計持續的波動。當然，正如您所知，我們的主要市場存在很多經濟不確定性，軟著陸與硬著陸，以及對消費者支出的影響。我們仍在應對許多政治不確定性，包括戰爭的影響。

And then as I mentioned earlier, we still have some sporadic supply challenges. While it's much improved versus where it was 2 years ago, we still have some outages. And so there's some inherent volatility. But overall, we feel very good about where the business is and where we're going and feel very good about our outlook.

正如我之前提到的，我們仍然面臨一些零星的供應挑戰。雖然與兩年前相比已經有了很大改善，但我們仍然遇到一些中斷。因此存在一些固有的波動性。但總體而言，我們對業務現狀和未來發展方向感到非常滿意，並對我們的前景感到非常滿意。

That's really helpful. I guess maybe one follow-up on that. I guess just given the -- you mentioned some reversion in the cost on the horizon. I mean, I guess, based on where things stand today, how should we be thinking about cost pressures looking out to 2024? I mean should we expect that this could remain a challenge looking ahead? And I guess the bigger question is, how does this really inform your view on when you expect to return to that 35% gross margin target you've outlined?

這真的很有幫助。我想也許會有一個後續行動。我想剛剛考慮到——你提到了即將出現的成本逆轉。我的意思是，我想，根據目前的情況，我們應該如何考慮展望 2024 年的成本壓力？我的意思是，我們是否應該預期這在未來仍然是一個挑戰？我想更大的問題是，這如何真正影響您對何時恢復到您所概述的 35% 毛利率目標的看法？

Well, certainly, I'll start with -- I don't think I'm going to give you guidance on '24 yet, but I think I'm definitely very pleased with our progress on margin recovery. Certainly, as you saw our gross and operating margins expand. I think we've done a great job with the revenue realization managing the cost environment. And so we feel very good about that. Our goal is to restore our margins to where they were back in 2019, our gross margins. I think we are making that progress. But we are going to stop there either. So when I got into this role back in 2019, I said at that time, one of our goals is to expand our margins over time. And so what we're trying to do, Peter, is one, restore and then when we get there, then we need to expand. And there's not 2 parts of the plan, there's one plan. And so we're going to continue to work that all the levers that we've talked about, both from a revenue management perspective and a cost management perspective to drive ongoing margin expansion.

好吧，當然，我首先要說的是——我認為我不會為您提供有關 24 年的指導，但我認為我對我們在利潤率恢復方面取得的進展絕對感到非常滿意。當然，正如您所看到的，我們的毛利率和營業利潤率都在擴大。我認為我們在收入實現和成本環境管理方面做得很好。所以我們對此感覺非常好。我們的目標是將我們的利潤率恢復到 2019 年的毛利率水平。我認為我們正在取得進展。但我們也將就此停止。因此，當我在 2019 年擔任這個職位時，我當時說，我們的目標之一是隨著時間的推移擴大我們的利潤率。因此，彼得，我們要做的就是恢復，然後當我們到達那裡時，我們需要擴展。計劃不是由兩部分組成，而是一個計劃。因此，我們將繼續利用我們討論過的所有槓桿，從收入管理的角度和成本管理的角度來推動持續的利潤率擴張。

Thank you. That concludes our Q&A session. I will now hand the conference back to our host for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我將把會議交還給我們的東道主致閉幕詞。請繼續。

Okay. Thank you all for joining us for the call today. We look forward to seeing you in Q3 -- at the end of Q3. Thank you.

好的。感謝大家今天參加我們的電話會議。我們期待在第三季度——第三季度末見到您。謝謝。

Thank you, everyone. This concludes today's event. You may disconnect at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝大家。今天的活動到此結束。此時您可能會斷開連接，並度過美好的一天。感謝您的參與。