金百利克拉克 (KMB) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your patience in holding. We now have your presenters in conference. (Operator Instructions) It is now my pleasure to introduce today's first presenter, Christina Cheng.

女士們先生們，感謝你們的耐心等待。我們現在有您的主持人在會議中。 （操作員說明）現在我很高興介紹今天的第一位主持人 Christina Cheng。

Thanks, Toby. Hello, and welcome to our 2022 year-end earnings conference call. Joining us today are Mike Hsu, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Nelson Urdaneta, our Chief Financial Officer; and Brian Ezzell, our VP of Finance. We issued our press release and published supplemental materials that summarize our results and outlook this morning. You can find these resources in the event page of our Investor Relations website.

謝謝，托比。您好，歡迎來到我們的 2022 年年終收益電話會議。今天加入我們的是我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Mike Hsu； Nelson Urdaneta，我們的首席財務官；和我們的財務副總裁 Brian Ezzell。今天上午，我們發布了新聞稿並發布了總結我們的結果和展望的補充材料。您可以在我們的投資者關係網站的活動頁面中找到這些資源。

Before we begin today, a few reminders. Statements will include forward -- our statements today will include forward-looking statements. Please refer to the latest Form 10-K or 10-Q for a list of factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from expectations. Our remarks will focus on adjusted results, which will exclude certain items described in our Q4 2022 earnings news release. Please consult our press release and public filings for more information about these adjustments and a reconciliation to comparable GAAP financial measures. Mike will provide his perspective of the business, and then we will open the floor for Q&A. With that, let me turn it over to Mike.

在我們開始今天之前，有幾點提醒。聲明將包括前瞻性——我們今天的聲明將包括前瞻性聲明。請參閱最新的 10-K 或 10-Q 表格，了解可能導致我們的實際結果與預期存在重大差異的因素列表。我們的評論將集中在調整後的結果上，這將不包括我們 2022 年第四季度收益新聞稿中描述的某些項目。請查閱我們的新聞稿和公開文件，了解有關這些調整的更多信息以及與可比的 GAAP 財務措施的對賬。 Mike 將提供他對業務的看法，然後我們將開放問答環節。有了這個，讓我把它交給邁克。

Okay. Thank you, Christina, and welcome to K-C. Good morning, and thank you all for joining us today. Back when we introduced our strategy in 2019, we could not have imagined the unprecedented challenges we were about to face. Over the past 4 years, K-C did what we do best, provide great care, care that our consumers, our customers, our employees and our communities needed all around the world.

好的。謝謝你，克里斯蒂娜，歡迎來到 K-C。早上好，感謝大家今天加入我們。當我們在 2019 年推出我們的戰略時，我們無法想像我們即將面臨的前所未有的挑戰。在過去的 4 年裡，K-C 做了我們最擅長的事情，提供了無微不至的關懷，關心我們的消費者、我們的客戶、我們的員工和我們的社區在世界各地所需要的。

At the peak of the pandemic, people counted on our brands to support the health and hygiene of their families. And I'm proud of what our teams were able to achieve to fulfill our purpose of better care for a better world. Now as we look back at our results, there are three themes I'd like to emphasize. Theme number one, our strategy to accelerate growth is working.

在大流行的高峰期，人們依靠我們的品牌來支持家人的健康和衛生。我為我們的團隊能夠實現我們更好地照顧更美好世界的目標而感到自豪。現在，當我們回顧我們的結果時，我想強調三個主題。主題一，我們加速增長的戰略正在奏效。

Since 2019, we've grown our business by about $1.5 billion in sales and delivered 4% average organic sales growth. In that time, we've accelerated organic growth by improving our product offering and market positions, with meaningful innovation and world-class commercial execution. In 2022, organic sales increased by 7% and over delivering on our goals at the beginning of the year. This was achieved in what turned out to be a uniquely challenging global environment.

自 2019 年以來，我們的業務銷售額增長了約 15 億美元，實現了 4% 的平均有機銷售額增長。在那段時間裡，我們通過有意義的創新和世界級的商業執行來改善我們的產品供應和市場地位，從而加速了有機增長。 2022 年，有機銷售額增長了 7%，超過了我們年初的目標。這是在一個極具挑戰性的全球環境中實現的。

2022 also marked Kimberly-Clark's 150th anniversary, a year in which we celebrated generations of category-defining innovation. We're proud to have created many of our categories, including feminine care and facial tissue under the leadership of our Kotex and Kleenex brands. We are inventors at heart. New products created during the last 3 years contributed to over 60% of our organic growth in 2022. Whether it's Kotex Dreamwear, for ultimate overnight protection or Kleenex allergy comfort, our product obsession, advantaged technology and consumer-centric focus is enabling us to create meaningful value and accelerate category growth.

2022 年也標誌著金佰利成立 150 週年，這一年我們慶祝了幾代定義類別的創新。我們很自豪能夠創建我們的許多類別，包括在我們的 Kotex 和 Kleenex 品牌的領導下的女性護理和麵巾紙。我們本質上是發明家。過去 3 年創造的新產品為我們 2022 年的有機增長貢獻了 60% 以上。無論是提供終極夜間保護的 Kotex Dreamwear 還是舒緩過敏的 Kleenex，我們對產品的痴迷、優勢技術和以消費者為中心的關注使我們能夠創造有意義的價值並加速類別增長。

This is perhaps most evident in China, where we continue to post double-digit organic growth in the face of a declining birth rate and challenging COVID operating conditions. With major upgrades in dryness and thinness, our products are among the best in the market, led by Huggies Super Deluxe, the softest diaper in China. Our strong portfolio supported by superior technology will continue to anchor Kimberly-Clark's leadership in the world's largest baby and child care market.

這在中國可能最為明顯，面對出生率下降和具有挑戰性的 COVID 運營條件，我們繼續實現兩位數的有機增長。乾爽度、薄度大升級，以中國最柔軟紙尿褲Huggies Super Deluxe為首，在市場上名列前茅。我們強大的產品組合得到卓越技術的支持，將繼續鞏固金佰利在全球最大嬰幼兒護理市場的領導地位。

Theme number two, we're making strong progress on margin recovery. Over the past 2 years, we faced unprecedented inflation worth over $3 billion, a roughly 1,500 basis point headwind to gross margin. Our teams have done an excellent job mitigating this impact. Our product leadership, commercial agility and cost discipline enabled us to rapidly implement broad pricing actions and generate over $700 million in cost savings.

第二個主題，我們在利潤率恢復方面取得了重大進展。在過去的 2 年裡，我們面臨著價值超過 30 億美元的前所未有的通貨膨脹，這對毛利率造成了大約 1,500 個基點的不利影響。我們的團隊在減輕這種影響方面做得非常出色。我們的產品領先地位、商業敏捷性和成本紀律使我們能夠迅速實施廣泛的定價行動，並節省了超過 7 億美元的成本。

The successful implementation of revenue growth management actions drove an inflection in our profitability in the second half of the year. Gross margin stabilized in Q3 and increased year-over-year in Q4 by over 200 basis points. This was our first major improvement in the last 8 quarters.

收入增長管理措施的成功實施推動了我們下半年盈利能力的拐點。第三季度毛利率趨於穩定，第四季度同比增長超過 200 個基點。這是我們在過去 8 個季度中的第一個重大改進。

Collectively, these actions enabled us to fully offset inflation and currency headwinds in 2022 on a dollar basis.

總的來說，這些行動使我們能夠在 2022 年以美元為基礎完全抵消通貨膨脹和貨幣逆風。

Recently, market prices of some inputs have begun to ease, although they remain elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels. While we're encouraged by this, it will take time for these benefits to work through our contracts and flow through the P&L. Nevertheless, we'll continue to leverage our scale to improve efficiency and reduce costs. At the same time, we expect our revenue management efforts will continue to positively impact this year.

最近，一些投入品的市場價格開始回落，但相對於大流行前的水平仍處於高位。雖然我們對此感到鼓舞，但這些好處需要時間才能通過我們的合同發揮作用並流經損益表。儘管如此，我們將繼續利用我們的規模來提高效率和降低成本。與此同時，我們預計我們的收入管理工作將在今年繼續產生積極影響。

This will aid ongoing gross margin recovery while also enabling us to continue investing in our business. At the midpoint of our 2023 guidance range, we plan to improve operating margin by approximately 80 basis points. With incremental headwinds below the line, this translates to 2% to 6% growth in earnings per share in 2023. We also intend to increase our dividend for the 50th first consecutive year.

這將有助於持續恢復毛利率，同時也使我們能夠繼續投資於我們的業務。在我們 2023 年指導範圍的中點，我們計劃將營業利潤率提高約 80 個基點。由於線下的逆風不斷增加，這意味著 2023 年每股收益將增長 2% 至 6%。我們還打算連續第 50 年增加股息。

Theme number three, we will continue to invest to drive balanced and sustainable growth. We're scaling innovation that delivers better value, more benefits and better care for our consumers. We continue to see strong demand for great-performing products. New poise Ultra Thins and expanded sizing for the pen drove share gains in adult care, both from a dollar and unit standpoint this past year in North America. We'll be launching several exciting initiatives in 2023, including our Good Night Youth Pant, which can hold the equivalent of three bottles of water! as well as exciting performance upgrades for Huggies diapers.

第三個主題，我們將繼續投資以推動平衡和可持續增長。我們正在擴大創新，為我們的消費者提供更好的價值、更多的好處和更好的關懷。我們繼續看到對高性能產品的強勁需求。去年，從美元和單位的角度來看，新的 poise Ultra Thins 和擴大的筆尺寸推動了成人護理的份額增長。我們將在 2023 年推出多項激動人心的舉措，包括我們的 Good Night Youth Pant，它的容量相當於三瓶水！以及好奇紙尿褲令人興奮的性能升級。

At the same time, we'll leverage the broad range of our offering to address the growing need for value through compelling commercial programs. Now to wrap up my prepared remarks, I'm very proud of K-Cr's around the world. They continue to execute with excellence standing tall in the face of countless challenges all to fulfill our purpose of better care for a better world. We've assembled an excellent management team that has tremendous experience unlocking global growth.

同時，我們將利用廣泛的產品範圍，通過引人注目的商業計劃來滿足日益增長的價值需求。現在結束我準備好的發言，我為世界各地的 K-Cr 感到非常自豪。面對無數挑戰，他們繼續以卓越的表現屹立不倒，所有這些都是為了實現我們更好地關愛更美好世界的目標。我們組建了一支優秀的管理團隊，他們在推動全球增長方面擁有豐富的經驗。

We have a long runway of growth ahead of us, and we'll continue to invest in balanced and sustainable growth to create long-term value for our shareholders. Now Shelby, if you wouldn't mind, let's open the line for questions.

我們前面還有很長的增長路要走，我們將繼續投資於平衡和可持續的增長，為我們的股東創造長期價值。現在謝爾比，如果你不介意，讓我們打開問題熱線。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Dara Mohsenian from Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們將從摩根士丹利的 Dara Mohsenian 那裡回答我們的第一個問題。

So I just wanted to go into the 2023 outlook in a little more detail. First, Mike, can you just outline what you're assuming for pulp prices as you look out to next year? I'm assuming you're not fully using the RISI forecast, but maybe you are, just any clarity there would be helpful. And then you talked about the greater investment in growth in people by 100 basis points to margin. Can you just help us understand the motivation behind that? Are there specific areas of opportunity? Is it more you had to pull back a little bit in 2022, just given such a tough commodity environment? How are you sort of thinking about that? And also maybe just a little more detail on functionally where you're spending? Is it ad spend? Or is it other areas? Is it headcount? And maybe geographies and product categories you plan to invest? So that would be helpful.

所以我只想更詳細地談談 2023 年的展望。首先，邁克，你能否概述一下你對明年紙漿價格的假設？我假設你沒有完全使用 RISI 預測，但也許你是，只是任何清晰度都會有所幫助。然後你談到了對人員增長的更大投資，利潤率提高了 100 個基點。你能幫我們理解這背後的動機嗎？有特定的機會領域嗎？鑑於如此艱難的大宗商品環境，您是否不得不在 2022 年稍微退縮？你是怎麼想的？也許還有更多關於你在哪裡消費的功能細節？是廣告支出嗎？還是其他地區？是人頭嗎？也許您計劃投資的地區和產品類別？這樣會有幫助。

Okay. We'll do, Dara. First of all, I feel great about where the brands are globally and where our business is, and we can talk about performance in the fourth quarter, and I know we'll get to that. But overall, I'd say we plan to deliver a better performance in 2023 for sure. We're going to build on our organic growth momentum. Dara, clearly in the plan for next year. There's plenty of carryover pricing, but there are new pricing actions in the plan as well. Most of those have already been announced to our customers. But in terms of the investment, I would say, I'm really excited. We got a robust innovation and commercial program for '23. In some ways, if I calibrate, I think it's -- this year will be stronger than last year, and we feel good about that. Consumer demand in our categories generally remains very resilient. And so I think from that aspect, we have good things to invest in. In terms of the overall spending, we are taking advertising back up a little bit more. Just for reference, and we haven't discussed this as much, but obviously, with the challenges that we've had over the last couple of years, we had pulled back slightly in over the last couple of years. But -- and so some of this is returning back to where we were back in -- perhaps back in 2020. But beyond that, I'd say it's more based on the merits of the commercial programs that we have, and we're excited about the programs that we have and we want to invest behind them. And at this point, you're probably aware, Dara, we're pretty good at evaluating the returns of our investment and making sure that they pay out. And so we feel great about that.

好的。我們會做的，達拉。首先，我對品牌在全球的位置和我們的業務在哪裡感覺很好，我們可以討論第四季度的業績，我知道我們會做到的。但總的來說，我想說我們肯定計劃在 2023 年提供更好的性能。我們將繼續保持有機增長勢頭。達拉，顯然在明年的計劃中。有很多結轉定價，但計劃中也有新的定價行動。其中大部分已經向我們的客戶公佈。但就投資而言，我會說，我真的很興奮。我們為 23 年制定了強大的創新和商業計劃。在某些方面，如果我進行校準，我認為 - 今年會比去年更強勁，我們對此感覺良好。我們類別中的消費者需求通常仍然非常有彈性。因此，我認為從這方面來看，我們有很多值得投資的東西。就整體支出而言，我們正在將廣告投入更多一點。僅供參考，我們沒有對此進行太多討論，但顯然，鑑於過去幾年我們遇到的挑戰，我們在過去幾年中略有後退。但是——所以其中一些正在回到我們原來的位置——也許會回到 2020 年。但除此之外，我想說這更多是基於我們擁有的商業項目的優點，而且我們對我們擁有的項目感到興奮，我們希望對其進行投資。在這一點上，你可能知道，Dara，我們非常擅長評估我們的投資回報並確保他們付出代價。所以我們對此感覺很好。

And so from the organic momentum, we continue to see that. I will say we expect continued progress on margin recovery while we're making that investment. We've got high single-digit operating profit growth while offsetting, I think what we said in our release, about $600 million in inflation and FX headwinds. And so yes, we are restoring some between the lines. But obviously, as you saw, the nonoperating items really kind of get us back to that mid-single-digit EPS guide -- or low to mid-single-digit EPS guide. So I will say -- and before I let -- Nelson will comment on the pulp.

因此，從有機勢頭來看，我們繼續看到這一點。我要說的是，我們預計在進行這項投資時，利潤率恢復將繼續取得進展。我們實現了高個位數的營業利潤增長，同時抵消了約 6 億美元的通貨膨脹和外匯逆風，我想我們在新聞稿中說過。所以是的，我們正在恢復一些字裡行間的內容。但很明顯，正如你所看到的，非經營性項目確實讓我們回到了中個位數 EPS 指南——或低到中個位數 EPS 指南。所以我要說——在我說之前——Nelson 將對紙漿發表評論。

I'll say, Dara, we are aiming for the top of our range internally, right? And I think we did the same thing last year. I'm glad we did because when we came out this time last year, I think we are calling for about $700 million of cost inflation. We ended up seeing closer to the $1.7 billion and still stayed within our original range. As I mentioned, we have very high-quality plans for this year. We're really excited about that. So we're aiming for the top end of the range. Why we call it the way we are? Well, volatility remains extraordinarily high. And so if you have a good call on interest rates, FX, the war, energy, supply chain, COVID, civil unrest, there's a lot going on. So that's a mouthful. Maybe I'll pause and let Nelson comment on pulp and then Dara, if you have any follow-ups.

我會說，達拉，我們的目標是在內部達到我們的最高水平，對嗎？我想我們去年也做了同樣的事情。我很高興我們這樣做了，因為當我們去年這個時候出來時，我認為我們要求大約 7 億美元的成本膨脹。我們最終看到接近 17 億美元，但仍保持在我們最初的範圍內。正如我提到的，我們今年有非常高質量的計劃。我們對此感到非常興奮。所以我們的目標是該範圍的高端。為什麼我們這樣稱呼它？好吧，波動性仍然非常高。因此，如果你對利率、外匯、戰爭、能源、供應鏈、COVID、內亂有很好的看法，那麼就會發生很多事情。所以這是一口。也許我會暫停一下，讓 Nelson 評論一下紙漿，然後是 Dara，如果你有任何後續行動的話。

Yes. And to add, Dara, in terms of pulp and the fiber complex as a whole. I think just to give a little bit of context of where we're at. Overall, the fiber market prices have plateaued in Q3, and they actually began to turn slightly in Q4. And to your question asked, do we take RISI as a reference? Yes, we take it as a reference. And just reiterating where we're at today, prices have more or less remained largely in line with where we in Q3 and what we're projecting into this year is that on average, eucalyptus, as an example, would be down 10% for the full year.

是的。補充一下，達拉，就紙漿和整個纖維複合體而言。我想只是簡單地介紹一下我們所處的位置。總體來看，三季度纖維市場價格趨於平穩，四季度開始出現小幅回升。對於您提出的問題，我們是否將 RISI 作為參考？是的，我們將其作為參考。只是重申我們今天所處的位置，價格或多或少與我們在第三季度的水平保持一致，我們今年的預測是平均而言，例如桉樹將下降 10%整年。

Now same goes for fluff and NBSK and some of the other components of the whole fiber complex. We would see prices begin to ease throughout 2023. One thing that we need to take into account is that we don't cover at RESI. I mean we actually enter into specific contracts in all the different components of fiber. So what you see in RESI or some of these indexes does not necessarily translate one to one at that time to our P&L. So that's also what's playing out. To give you a context, out of the commodity inflation of $200 million to $300 million that we're quoting in our guidance. The pulp complex as a whole is right around half of that at the midpoint. We will see pulp as a whole, be up for us in 2023 based on what we're forecasting at this stage, albeit a very small number compared to what we've seen before and markets are giving up on that end.

現在同樣適用於絨毛和 NBSK 以及整個纖維複合體的其他一些成分。我們將看到價格在整個 2023 年開始下降。我們需要考慮的一件事是我們沒有涵蓋 RESI。我的意思是我們實際上就纖維的所有不同成分簽訂了具體合同。因此，您在 RESI 或其中一些指數中看到的內容並不一定會在當時一對一地轉化為我們的損益表。所以這也是正在發生的事情。為了給你一個背景，我們在我們的指導中引用了 2 億至 3 億美元的商品通脹。紙漿複合體作為一個整體正好是中點的一半左右。根據我們現階段的預測，我們將看到紙漿作為一個整體，在 2023 年為我們做好準備，儘管與我們之前看到的相比這個數字非常小，而且市場正在放棄這一目標。

I think I'll add, Dara, also. While we'll take some of those declines that you see in RESI will take a little time to work through our system. I would say if you saw a spot in what we're paying you'd want to pay what we're paying.

我想我還要補充一下，Dara。雖然我們會接受您在 RESI 中看到的一些下降，但需要一些時間來處理我們的系統。我想說的是，如果您看到我們支付的費用中有一點，您就會願意支付我們支付的費用。

Great. That's helpful. And just one quick follow-up. On the higher ad spend, are there specific geographies or product categories you're most focused on, Mike? And then if I can slip one additional question in, also just the FX guidance for 2023. The revenue guidance is worse than our currency models indicate based on your country exposure. So just any clarity there would be helpful, but also the flow-through to profit look pretty severe in terms of the FX impact on profit relative to revenue. So any clarity there would be helpful.

偉大的。這很有幫助。並且只是一個快速跟進。關於較高的廣告支出，是否有您最關注的特定地區或產品類別，Mike？然後，如果我可以提出一個額外的問題，也就是 2023 年的外匯指導。收入指導比我們的貨幣模型根據您所在國家/地區的風險所顯示的要差。因此，任何清晰度都會有所幫助，但就外匯對相對於收入的利潤的影響而言，利潤的流動看起來相當嚴重。所以任何澄清都會有所幫助。

Yes, the spending Dara, I would say it's broad improvements. I mean, certainly, in our major markets like the U.S. and the diaper category, for sure, we have great news that we want to make sure that we're supporting appropriately. I think I cannot share exactly what that news is because it's coming out in the second half. But it will blow your mind when you see it. And it has to do with -- not to say this on an earnings call, but the poop side of things, and so that's kind of the business we're in. And so we'll do miraculous things with poop. And so that's one set of areas. We've got huge momentum in China, and we feel great about that. Teams doing a fantastic job. We're going to continue to plow and invest in the brand and the advertising in our digital capabilities in China. And so those are 2 core areas. But obviously, we have strong traction around the world, and we feel good about our investments around the world.

是的，支出 Dara，我會說這是廣泛的改進。我的意思是，當然，在我們的主要市場，如美國和尿布類別，當然，我們有好消息要確保我們得到適當的支持。我想我不能確切地分享這個消息是什麼，因為它會在下半年發布。但是當你看到它時，它會讓你大吃一驚。它與 - 不是在財報電話會議上說這個，而是事情的大便方面，所以這就是我們所從事的業務。所以我們將用大便做奇蹟。這是一組區域。我們在中國擁有巨大的發展勢頭，對此我們感到非常高興。團隊做得很好。我們將繼續在中國的數字能力中耕耘和投資品牌和廣告。因此，這些是 2 個核心領域。但顯然，我們在世界各地都有強大的影響力，我們對我們在世界各地的投資感覺良好。

And addressing the question on the ForEx, Dara, just to unlock that a little bit. So for next year on the top line, we've said that for the full year, we're talking around 2 percentage points of a drag. And it's important to highlight that we are seeing that concentrated in the first half of the year. When we do the comps year-over-year. I mean we would not -- we would see that really ease or not be that much of a headwind as we get into the second half from a top line standpoint. So you could work that out and there.

並解決有關 ForEx 的問題，Dara，只是為了解鎖一點點。因此，對於明年的頂線，我們已經說過全年，我們談論的是大約 2 個百分點的拖累。重要的是要強調我們看到這集中在今年上半年。當我們逐年進行比較時。我的意思是我們不會——我們會看到，當我們從頂線的角度進入下半場時，這真的會緩解或不會那麼大的逆風。所以你可以在那裡解決這個問題。

And then when we go down to the flow-through to the bottom line, a couple of things. As a reminder, we've got about half of our revenue coming from overseas and about 1/3 of our profit coming from overseas. We do have a significant amount of costs that impact the P&L, either exposed to hard currencies in the [foreign] subs in which we operate. The other element you need to take into account as you model is that we're not covering the spot rates. I mean we have particular risk management strategies in place that I'm not going to get into details in the call, but we have to work through those risk management strategies as they flow through the P&L. As you know, that's not a one-to-one if you're engaging in hedging and doing risk management strategies that we do.

然後當我們深入到底線的流程時，有幾件事。提醒一下，我們大約一半的收入來自海外，大約 1/3 的利潤來自海外。我們確實有大量成本會影響損益表，或者在我們經營的 [外國] 潛艇中暴露於硬通貨。您在建模時需要考慮的另一個因素是我們不包括即期匯率。我的意思是我們有特定的風險管理策略，我不會在電話中詳細介紹，但我們必須在這些風險管理策略流經損益表時對其進行處理。如您所知，如果您像我們一樣從事對沖和風險管理策略，那不是一對一。

We'll take our next question from Chris Carey with Wells Fargo.

我們將從富國銀行的 Chris Carey 那裡回答我們的下一個問題。

I just -- so one follow-up on the currency piece and then another question. But just on the currency piece, I think it's getting so much attention this morning because it's such an atypical multiplier versus what we've seen here, right? And so -- and I appreciate there's hedging and it sounds like that's something you have good facility into. So maybe I'll just take that as a given. And what -- how should we think about an improvement in currency or a worsening in currency? So you're hedged, does this now -- is this now the outlook? Or should changes in currency imply a change in what's going to be flowing through on your model this year? So perhaps you can just help us understand.

我只是 - 所以對貨幣部分進行後續跟進，然後是另一個問題。但就貨幣部分而言，我認為它今天早上受到瞭如此多的關注，因為與我們在這裡看到的相比，它是一個非典型的乘數，對吧？所以 - 我很欣賞有對沖，這聽起來像是你有很好的設施。所以也許我會把它當作給定的。什麼——我們應該如何考慮貨幣的改善或貨幣的惡化？所以你被對沖了，現在這樣做——這是現在的前景嗎？或者貨幣的變化是否意味著今年您的模型中將要發生的變化？所以也許你可以幫助我們理解。

That's a fair question, Chris. And a couple of things. Obviously, on top line, it will be what it will be because we don't hedge top line. So that's in essence what's going to happen, so it will translate. When you go to costs, we have models in place for risk management strategies, and there are currencies we hedge that currencies, we don't hedge, and it depends on the amounts we do. So it's model-driven. So, changes in currency to your question, would have impacts. Now it won't apply to all the currency payers because it depends on where we're at, at any given point in time. So definitely on top line, yes, we will see that very fluid as markets move, and that's happening literally on the hour. As to profits, we will also see, to some extent, some flow as the currency changes, and we update our models depending on what's hedged and what's not hedged.

這是一個公平的問題，克里斯。還有幾件事。顯然，在頂線，它會是什麼，因為我們不對沖頂線。所以這本質上就是將要發生的事情，所以它會翻譯。當你談到成本時，我們有風險管理策略的模型，我們對沖了一些貨幣，我們不對沖，這取決於我們做的金額。所以它是模型驅動的。因此，您的問題的貨幣變化會產生影響。現在它不適用於所有貨幣支付者，因為它取決於我們在任何給定時間點所處的位置。所以絕對最重要的是，是的，隨著市場的變化，我們會看到它非常流暢，而這實際上是在小時內發生的。至於利潤，在某種程度上，隨著貨幣的變化，我們也會看到一些流動，我們會根據對沖和不對沖的內容來更新我們的模型。

Okay. Just given -- I think one other thing this morning is that -- the commodity outlook relative to what we can see on even forward prices would suggest worse than expected probably on that front. Clearly, you're saying more of that's happening in international markets may be harder to track. So I think that makes sense. But nevertheless, we'll probably end the year now at a gross margin of, say, 32%, still a few hundred basis points below pre-pandemic operating margins even farther below pre-pandemic. And I think conceptually, the organization does have goal to get back to that margin structure. It just feels like with commodity volatility and the nonoperating inflation that you're talking about, do you still think that's a realistic medium to long-term objective or has the inflation been such that there's probably not enough pricing and savings to get you there or at least it will take a very long time. Thanks for your thoughts on that.

好的。剛剛給出的——我認為今天早上的另一件事是——相對於我們在甚至遠期價格上看到的商品前景，在這方面可能比預期更糟。顯然，您是說國際市場上發生的更多事情可能更難追踪。所以我認為這是有道理的。但是儘管如此，我們到今年年底的毛利率可能會達到 32%，但仍比大流行前的營業利潤率低幾百個基點，甚至比大流行前還要低。我認為從概念上講，該組織確實有目標回到那個保證金結構。感覺就像商品波動和您正在談論的非經營性通貨膨脹一樣，您仍然認為這是一個現實的中長期目標，還是通貨膨脹如此之大以至於可能沒有足夠的定價和儲蓄來實現您的目標，或者至少需要很長時間。感謝您對此的想法。

Yes, Chris, I definitely feel like it's a realistic goal, and I think we'll get there. And my view is we've turned the corner on our margin recovery program. We -- obviously, we saw in the fourth quarter continued strong organic performance. But for the -- I said this in my prepared remarks, pricing exceeded input costs and inflation for the full year. So we fully offset inflation and FX for the full year last year. So I think the team did a great job there. And our operating margin, as I said, stabilized in Q3 and expanded by 200 basis points in Q4. In terms of the cost outlook, so I think we're making great progress there. And let me say this about costs. One, from my seat, I'll say there's -- I see green shoots, okay? But even though we still see cost headwinds coming into the year, there are green shoots, and we have seen selected commodities start to ease. And I'll also say, having been in this company for 10 years, reversion is around the corner. And when it happens, it happens fast. We offset extraordinary headwinds over the last couple of years, as I mentioned. We see another 600 this year. Historically, though, there has been rapid reversion, and we've seen some signs of it. I don't have a timetable for that. I don't know if it's going to hit this year or not. But at some point, it will happen. And when that does happen, it will accelerate our margin recovery. And as I said in the past, we're not counting on reversion to deliver the margin recovery. But when it does, it will accelerate our time line, which is why I feel confident about it because we all know $3 billion over 2 years, it's not going to stay at that level, right? At some point, it's going to come back down.

是的，克里斯，我絕對覺得這是一個現實的目標，我想我們會實現的。我的觀點是，我們的利潤率恢復計劃已經走到了盡頭。我們 - 顯然，我們在第四季度看到了持續強勁的有機表現。但對於 - 我在準備好的發言中說過這一點，定價超過了全年的投入成本和通貨膨脹。因此，我們完全抵消了去年全年的通貨膨脹和外匯。所以我認為團隊在那裡做得很好。正如我所說，我們的營業利潤率在第三季度穩定下來，並在第四季度擴大了 200 個基點。就成本前景而言，我認為我們在那裡取得了很大進展。讓我談談成本。第一，從我的座位上，我會說——我看到了綠芽，好嗎？但是，儘管今年我們仍然看到成本逆風，但還是出現了新的苗頭，而且我們已經看到部分大宗商品開始緩和。而且我還要說，在這家公司工作了 10 年，回歸指日可待。當它發生時，它發生得很快。正如我提到的，我們在過去幾年抵消了非凡的逆風。今年我們又看到了 600 個。不過，從歷史上看，出現了快速逆轉，我們已經看到了一些跡象。我沒有這方面的時間表。不知道今年會不會火。但在某個時候，它會發生。當這種情況發生時，它將加速我們的利潤率恢復。正如我過去所說，我們並不指望回歸來實現利潤率的恢復。但是當它發生時，它會加快我們的時間表，這就是為什麼我對此充滿信心，因為我們都知道 2 年內有 30 億美元，它不會保持在那個水平，對嗎？在某個時候，它會回落。

And just to add a little flavor on the gross margin, too, Chris. A couple of things, we had three quarters in a row where we actually expanded gross margin. And as Mike pointed out, for the first time in Q4, we grew gross margin year-over-year versus the last time we ever did that was back in mid-2020. So it had been a few quarters. That has not been the case. And that reinforces Mike's point that what we have been talking about since July of really remaining committed and having line of sight to recovery in the margins is going to happen.

克里斯，也只是為了增加毛利率的一點味道。有幾件事，我們連續三個季度實際擴大了毛利率。正如 Mike 指出的那樣，我們在第四季度首次實現了毛利率同比增長，而我們上一次這樣做是在 2020 年年中。所以已經過了幾個季度。事實並非如此。這強化了 Mike 的觀點，即我們自 7 月以來一直在談論的真正保持承諾和對利潤率復甦的視線將會發生。

As we stare at this year, our plan calls for year-over-year margin expansion in gross margin every quarter. That's what we have in place. I think you quoted 32% of gross margin, it's actually higher what we're aiming for at the full year because we're expanding operating margins at the midpoint of our plan by 80 bps. If you look at what we put out in the release and the remarks, we're investing about 100 basis points of net sale into the brands. So we got to add that back to that 80 bps, and that gives you a sense of what at least is going to be the gross margin expansion that we have planned in here. So we definitely have -- we're building on those green shoots that Mike saying, but we're not staying sitting here. I mean we're moving on the productivity line. We're moving on the margin accretive innovation, and we're also moving on the net revenue growth management programs that we have in place. So all of that is really putting us there. And as Mike has said in the past, reversion will accelerate this. That's the only thing that would do that.

展望今年，我們的計劃要求每個季度的毛利率同比增長。這就是我們所擁有的。我認為你引用了 32% 的毛利率，這實際上高於我們全年的目標，因為我們將計劃中點的營業利潤率提高了 80 個基點。如果你看看我們在新聞稿和評論中發布的內容，我們將向品牌投資約 100 個基點的淨銷售額。所以我們必須把它加回 80 個基點，這讓你至少了解我們在這裡計劃的毛利率擴張是什麼。所以我們肯定有 - 我們正在建立邁克所說的那些綠芽，但我們不會坐在這裡。我的意思是我們正在提高生產力。我們正在推進利潤增長的創新，我們也在推進我們已經實施的淨收入增長管理計劃。所以所有這些都讓我們真正做到了。正如 Mike 過去所說，回歸將加速這一過程。這是唯一能做到這一點的東西。

So can I just confirm, and I apologize I've gotten questions on this, and I'm going to get back in the queue. Do you expect gross margins up, but the 100 basis points is what you're investing into gross margins? So if you can you just maybe confirm what your expectation for price margin is for 2023? Because I think there has been some confusion.

那麼我可以確認一下嗎？很抱歉我收到了這方面的問題，我會回到隊列中。您是否預計毛利率會上升，但 100 個基點是您投資於毛利率的金額？所以，如果你能確認一下你對 2023 年價格利潤率的預期是多少？因為我認為存在一些混亂。

Yes, I wanted to add, right. So it would be like this. We have 80 basis points of operating margin. You add 100 basis points that we are reinvesting into the brands. That gives you 180 basis points by which at least gross margin would have to expand. Does that make sense? That's the math.

是的，我想補充一下，對吧。所以它會是這樣的。我們有 80 個基點的營業利潤率。您添加 100 個基點，我們將對這些品牌進行再投資。這給了你 180 個基點，至少毛利率必須擴大。那有意義嗎？這就是數學。

We'll take our next question from Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

我們將接受德意志銀行史蒂夫鮑爾斯的下一個問題。

Just to pick up on that math because that's sort of the math that we're working with, too. But that implies, if you take the numbers literally, at the 23% gross margin objective is a tick below the 4Q '22 gross margin that you realized. So just to Nelson's point about seeing that progressive gross margin improvement sequentially, it doesn't imply a lot more movement in '23. So maybe just talk about that in the context of overtime, easing costs and the like.

只是為了了解數學，因為這也是我們正在使用的數學。但這意味著，如果你從字面上看這些數字，23% 的毛利率目標比你實現的 22 年第四季度毛利率低一點。因此，就尼爾森關於看到毛利率逐步提高的觀點而言，這並不意味著 23 年會有更多變化。因此，也許只是在加班、降低成本等背景下談論這一點。

The road to margin recovery is an buffy one, Chris -- or Steve.

恢復利潤率的道路是平坦的，克里斯 - 或史蒂夫。

So Steve, I think a few things that -- just to add a little bit of color or how we get there on the math. So I think the important thing to take into account is we're staring right now at about $250 million of commodity costs at the midpoint, as we've guided. We have about -- in terms of currency, about $350 million at the midpoint in currency. And then in other costs, we have around $200 million. So when you add it all up, we will be for another year in a row, having a significant revenue growth management realization that we've planned for, which, by the way, around 2/3 of that is solely carry over from 2022.

所以史蒂夫，我想一些事情 - 只是為了增加一點色彩或我們如何在數學上達到目標。因此，我認為需要考慮的重要一點是，正如我們所指導的那樣，我們現在正盯著中點大約 2.5 億美元的商品成本。就貨幣而言，我們有大約 3.5 億美元的中點貨幣。然後在其他成本中，我們有大約 2 億美元。因此，當您將所有這些加起來時，我們將連續一年實現我們計劃的顯著收入增長管理實現，順便說一句，其中約 2/3 僅從 2022 年結轉.

So what happens at the end is, for the year, we're going to be realizing positive pricing net of commodity and ForEx, whereas last year, we were pretty much neutral. We were able to fully offset the $1.7 billion. So that's going to flow through. And exiting Q4, it's not a straight line as Mike indicated, because, again, the quarters are pretty different and the dynamics between the categories and the mix and our cost impact us differs. But the reality is that on a year-over-year basis, we continue to expand margins, and it would be quite the game because if you recall, our pre-COVID gross margins were around 35%. So we would be getting we would be making pretty good advance on the full year with the movement that we're planning for.

所以最後發生的事情是，今年，我們將實現商品和外彙的正定價淨值，而去年，我們幾乎是中立的。我們能夠完全抵消 17 億美元。所以這會流過。退出第四季度，這不是邁克所說的直線，因為，季度又是非常不同的，類別和組合之間的動態以及我們的成本影響我們不同。但現實情況是，與去年同期相比，我們繼續擴大利潤率，這將是一場相當成功的比賽，因為如果你還記得的話，我們在 COVID 之前的毛利率約為 35%。所以我們會得到我們將在全年通過我們計劃的運動取得相當好的進展。

Yes, Stephen, and maybe I'll just add for context, I mean, I wasn't trying to sound facetious, because when I say it's a bumpy road, I'm not one for hyperbole and I think I said in my prepared remarks, unprecedented a few times. And so there's been unprecedented effects kind of on the demand side and on the supply side, just in terms of demand, obviously, COVID in and out, the war, which caused demand to change in and out, then you have all the supply issues either associated with COVID, the war or just the product availability or transportation availability. So there's a lot of things moving around. Then you throw in our Texas storm, which, at this point, I'm on the third order impact of the Texas storm. And so you got all that. There's a lot of volatility inherent in the numbers, and they were not consistent quarter-to-quarter and very unusual in our business because typically, I think you all are right, this tends to be a very stable business. But because of that, both from a demand perspective and a cost perspective, things are going to move around from quarter-to-quarter a little bit.

是的，斯蒂芬，也許我只是補充一下背景，我的意思是，我並不是想听起來很滑稽，因為當我說這是一條崎嶇不平的道路時，我不是一個誇張的人，我想我已經準備好了此番言論，前無古人後無來者。因此，在需求方面和供應方面都產生了前所未有的影響，就需求而言，顯然，COVID 進進出出，戰爭導致需求進進出出，然後你就會遇到所有供應問題與 COVID、戰爭或僅與產品可用性或運輸可用性相關。所以有很多東西在移動。然後你投入我們的德克薩斯風暴，在這一點上，我處於德克薩斯風暴的三階影響。所以你得到了所有這些。這些數字本身就存在很大的波動性，而且它們在每個季度之間並不一致，而且在我們的業務中非常不尋常，因為通常情況下，我認為你們都是對的，這往往是一個非常穩定的業務。但正因為如此，無論是從需求的角度還是從成本的角度來看，每個季度的情況都會有所變化。

Okay. That's fair. And I agree. Unprecedented has become the new precedent. So two other, I guess, follow-ups, if I could. One is on the enhanced essentially net pricing, revenue growth management. I guess you talked about mostly carryover. That's great. That makes sense. In terms of the incremental, is -- do you anticipate incremental actual pricing actions versus just kind of other RGM actions? And you -- just some color around where those might occur and what portion of them are actually list price movements versus count reductions, that kind of thing would be helpful. And then another thing that you mentioned in the release, it's been a topic across other companies that have been reporting just in terms of retail inventory levels and some downshifting in terms of trade inventory levels, just some color around what you've seen and how you're thinking about destocking inventory levels across the trade as you go through '23?

好的。這還算公平。並且我同意。史無前例，成了新的先例。如果可以的話，我想還有另外兩個跟進。一是加強實質上的淨定價、收入增長管理。我猜你談論的主要是結轉。那太棒了。這就說得通了。就增量而言，您是否預計增量實際定價行動與其他 RGM 行動相比？而你 - 只是一些可能發生的地方的顏色，以及它們中的哪一部分實際上是標價變動與數量減少，這種事情會有所幫助。然後你在新聞稿中提到的另一件事，它一直是其他公司的一個話題，這些公司一直在報告零售庫存水平和貿易庫存水平方面的一些下降，只是圍繞你所看到的以及如何進行的一些顏色您正在考慮在 23 年期間降低整個行業的庫存水平嗎？

Steve, yes, first of all, we've moved fast on pricing the last couple of years, right? And so I'm really proud of the team and their ability to fully offset inflation on a dollar basis in 2022. But for the plan this year, I would say the majority of our pricing is like -- is going to be carryover, but we have taken new actions, some list pricing, which is, in general, across most markets already been announced into the marketplaces. But there are additional RGM actions we've taken as well that you might say, whether it's promotional changes or productivity around trade spending. So those are the more typical that are kind of evergreen programs that we're going to have in place. But overall, we feel very good about our RGM, our revenue growth management capability. It's executing well. If we didn't -- if we had not invested in it, over the past 5 years, we would not have been able to make the moves that we're making. And then in general, I think it's been working very, very well. In general, I would say demand is holding up pretty well. I know that will be a topic people will want to double-click on. But I would say the elasticity are holding up, in general, better than we modeled originally. So that maybe, hopefully, that's it on the pricing one. Any follow-up, Steve, on the pricing?

史蒂夫，是的，首先，過去幾年我們在定價方面進展迅速，對吧？因此，我真的為團隊感到自豪，他們有能力在 2022 年完全抵消以美元為基礎的通貨膨脹。但是對於今年的計劃，我想說我們的大部分定價都是——將結轉，但是我們採取了新的行動，一些清單定價，一般來說，大多數市場都已經在市場上公佈了。但是，我們還採取了其他 RGM 行動，您可能會說，無論是促銷變化還是圍繞貿易支出的生產力。因此，這些是我們將要實施的更典型的常青計劃。但總的來說，我們對我們的 RGM，即我們的收入增長管理能力感到非常滿意。它執行得很好。如果我們不這樣做——如果我們沒有對其進行投資，在過去的 5 年裡，我們將無法採取我們正在採取的行動。然後總的來說，我認為它一直運作得非常非常好。總的來說，我會說需求保持得很好。我知道這將是人們想要雙擊的主題。但我要說的是，總的來說，彈性比我們最初建模的要好。所以也許，希望這就是定價的。史蒂夫，有關於定價的後續行動嗎？

No, that's great.

不，那太好了。

Okay. And then retail inventory, it was interesting. Nelson and I were at a conference in September Lauren's conference in September and almost every investor asks us about retail inventories because it was starting to change for a couple manufacturers. It had not affected us at -- that was back in September. I would say subsequent to that meeting, perhaps a week or two afterwards, we started getting news from retailers that they were going to look at retail inventories as well in our categories. And it's happened. I would say it's been typical. Generally typical to kind of what we've experienced year-over-year. So in the fourth quarter, I'd say it came in about what we forecast. It did affect the consumption because if you look at North America, I think our overall organic between tissue and personal care was up 1%which is a little soft relative to what the consumption was. And in my mind, consumption is really what the business is really performing at. And so you're going to have some other changes that affect your shipments. But over the long term, shipments must equal consumption in my book. And so consumption for the quarter was up 7% in Personal Care and 7% in Tissue. So we feel like the business remains very healthy, but we worked through some typical retailer inventory issues.

好的。然後是零售庫存，這很有趣。納爾遜和我參加了 9 月勞倫在 9 月舉行的會議，幾乎每個投資者都向我們詢問零售庫存，因為一些製造商的庫存開始發生變化。它沒有影響我們——那是在九月份。我想說在那次會議之後，大概一兩週後，我們開始從零售商那裡得到消息，他們將查看我們類別中的零售庫存。它已經發生了。我會說這是典型的。一般來說，我們每年經歷的事情都是典型的。所以在第四季度，我想說的是我們的預測。它確實影響了消費，因為如果你看看北美，我認為我們的紙巾和個人護理之間的整體有機增長了 1%，相對於消費而言，這有點疲軟。在我看來，消費才是真正的業務表現。因此，您將進行一些影響您的發貨的其他更改。但從長遠來看，在我看來，出貨量必須等於消耗量。因此，本季度的個人護理消費量增長了 7%，紙巾消費量增長了 7%。所以我們覺得業務仍然非常健康，但我們解決了一些典型的零售商庫存問題。

We'll take our next question from Anna Lizzul with Bank of America.

我們將接受來自美國銀行的 Anna Lizzul 的下一個問題。

I was wondering if you can comment from your guidance on why most of your inflation is outside of the U.S. in 2023, meaning what is different really in terms of the market outside of the U.S. in terms of rising costs? And then I have a follow-up.

我想知道您是否可以從您的指導中評論為什麼 2023 年大部分通脹發生在美國以外，這意味著就成本上升而言，美國以外的市場到底有什麼不同？然後我有一個後續行動。

Yes. In general, inflation -- so a couple of things. Out of the commodity inflation, the one we're quoting, the $200 million to $300 million impact, the majority of that bucket is on the international markets. So the U.S. would be not the big -- the market largely impacted by that bucket. However, when we move down the line, obviously, ForEx would be most -- would be the international markets, as you could see. But then on the other costs, it's broad-based. So that would be broad-based across the portfolio.

是的。總的來說，通貨膨脹——有幾件事。在商品通脹中，我們引用的是 2 億至 3 億美元的影響，其中大部分是在國際市場上。所以美國不會很大——這個市場在很大程度上受到了那個桶的影響。然而，當我們向下移動時，很明顯，ForEx 將是國際市場，如您所見。但就其他成本而言，它的基礎很廣泛。因此，這將在整個投資組合中具有廣泛的基礎。

Okay. And then just how should we think about the phasing of your FORCE cost savings through the year just given the rising input costs are more pronounced in the first half, should we expect greater cost savings to offset that in the first half as well?

好的。然後，鑑於上半年投入成本的上升更為明顯，我們應該如何考慮在今年分階段進行 FORCE 成本節約，我們是否應該期望更多的成本節約來抵消上半年的成本節約？

Yes. As we've said in the past, Anna, our FORCE savings are not linear. And they -- it all depends on movements within the quarters, go live projects. And it is very difficult for us to predict exactly how it comes into play. I would not skew FORCE into the first part of the year, because typically, we've got a lot of projects that are going live. We're still dealing and managing through some challenges, especially internationally on the supply chain bid, and that weighs in into how force plays throughout the year. But I can't give you a specific percentage of what you should be planning. But I hope that helps guide you as to how we're thinking about it.

是的。正如我們過去所說，安娜，我們的 FORCE 節省不是線性的。他們——這完全取決於宿舍內的動向，上線項目。我們很難準確預測它是如何發揮作用的。我不會將 FORCE 安排在今年上半年，因為通常情況下，我們有很多項目正在上線。我們仍在應對和管理一些挑戰，尤其是在國際供應鏈投標方面，這影響了全年的力量。但我不能給你具體的計劃百分比。但我希望這有助於指導您了解我們的想法。

We'll take our next question from Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

我們將從摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira 那裡回答下一個問題。

So I wanted to just perhaps hope to bridge the top line guidance a bit between volume and pricing. And also I understand you mentioned, obviously, you have some carryover impact of about 2/3, I think you called out from pricing. So it implies that potentially you're announcing or embedding some additional pricing. So first of all, I wanted to check on that. And by my math, probably you're embedding flattish to slightly up volume for 2023. So I'm hoping to figure what regions would that be? And related to that, from a regional perspective, D&E it was a bit softer in the fourth quarter. I understand like you called out Southeast Asia, and I'm thinking -- and correct me if I'm wrong, Softex being an acquisition that you made towards the end of 2021. Perhaps there are some puts and takes there. Anything you can add in terms of like 2022 seems to me was a year that D&E had a very strong year -- and actually, sorry, developed markets had a very strong year. D&E was a little bit softer. Is that going to reverse because you're obviously having tougher comps in China and in developed markets. So if you can help us with that.

所以我想也許只是希望在數量和定價之間彌合頂線指導。而且我知道你提到過，很明顯，你有大約 2/3 的結轉影響，我想你是從定價中呼喚出來的。因此，這意味著您可能會宣布或嵌入一些額外的定價。所以首先，我想檢查一下。根據我的數學計算，您可能會在 2023 年嵌入平坦到略微增加的體積。所以我希望弄清楚那會是哪些區域？與此相關的是，從區域角度來看，D&E 在第四季度略微疲軟。我理解你說的是東南亞，我在想——如果我錯了請糾正我，Softex 是你在 2021 年底進行的收購。也許那裡有一些看跌期權。在我看來，你可以添加任何像 2022 年這樣的東西，這是 D&E 表現非常強勁的一年——實際上，抱歉，發達市場的表現非常強勁。 D&E 有點柔和。這會逆轉嗎，因為你顯然在中國和發達市場有更強硬的競爭。所以，如果你能幫助我們。

Okay. Maybe, Andrea, I'll start with the D&E and then maybe Nelson, you can come back in on the bridging the top line. D&E, yes, it did soften. So in Q3, I think we were up about 11%, Andrea, and then it was plus 2% in the fourth quarter. I would say, as you already talked about, primarily due to what I would call discrete challenges in Southeast Asia. So what we're doing is we're excited about our business in Indonesia. It's great business, great brand. I would say we're working through some business approaches that we prefer. And so that's had an effect of the year. They did things in a certain way. I prefer to do them a different way. And so we're just working through that, and that had an impact on sales kind of in the quarter. Hopefully, we're through that. And then beyond Indonesia, we're seeing a little increased competition in Vietnam and India. And so we're going to work through that and something that's been going off and on for a couple of years now. Beyond Southeast Asia, China was up double digits. Latin America was up in the 20s and Middle East and Africa was up mid-single digit for us. So we're still -- we still feel very good about our D&E performance overall, but recognize we have a little bit of work to do in Southeast Asia. I think the team overall is doing a great job executing, bringing innovation into these markets, driving the price execution, which we've talked about. And we feel great about our commercial programming for this coming year. Does that give you enough on D&E?

好的。也許，安德里亞，我將從 D&E 開始，然後也許是尼爾森，你可以回到橋接頂線。 D&E，是的，它確實軟化了。所以在第三季度，我認為我們增長了大約 11%，Andrea，然後在第四季度增長了 2%。我想說，正如你已經談到的，主要是由於我稱之為東南亞的離散挑戰。所以我們正在做的是我們對我們在印度尼西亞的業務感到興奮。這是偉大的企業，偉大的品牌。我會說我們正在通過一些我們喜歡的商業方法來工作。所以這是今年的影響。他們以某種方式做事。我更喜歡用不同的方式來做。所以我們正在努力解決這個問題，這對本季度的銷售產生了影響。希望我們能渡過難關。然後在印度尼西亞之外，我們看到越南和印度的競爭略有增加。因此，我們將解決這個問題，以及幾年來斷斷續續發生的事情。在東南亞之外，中國也增長了兩位數。拉丁美洲在 20 年代上漲，中東和非洲對我們來說上漲了中個位數。所以我們仍然 - 我們仍然對我們的 D&E 整體表現感到非常滿意，但認識到我們在東南亞還有一些工作要做。我認為整個團隊在執行方面做得很好，將創新帶入這些市場，推動價格執行，我們已經談到了這一點。我們對來年的商業節目感覺很好。這是否足以讓您了解 D&E？

Yes. No, I guess on the developed markets, though, what is embedded in your guidance? Because I'm assuming you're thinking of (inaudible) kicking in stronger for this year? Or because it seems as if, at least in North America, I know the puts and takes from North America growth was subdued in the fourth quarter, so hoping to see if there is any puts and takes as you took more pricing? And what is -- what are you embedding into 2023?

是的。不，我想在發達市場上，您的指導中包含什麼？因為我假設您正在考慮（聽不清）今年踢得更強？或者因為似乎，至少在北美，我知道第四季度北美增長的看跌期權和收益受到抑制，所以希望看看在你採取更多定價時是否有任何看跌期權和收益？什麼是——你要在 2023 年嵌入什麼？

Yes. Let me just say, we had great performance across developed markets in the fourth quarter. I think, generally, approaching a double-digit in developed markets outside the U.S. U.S., as I mentioned, was up -- I think if you add tissue and personal care, was up about 1%, mostly driven by retail inventory changes differences. We exited a private label contract that was pretty significant. We exited or changed timing on a pretty significant promotion at a big retailer. And so that affected, I would say, the fourth quarter overall in the U.S. But overall, I don't think we're putting out a number there specifically on each of these segments, but we are expecting continued good performance both in North America and developed markets internationally and very excited about the plans going there too.

是的。我只想說，第四季度我們在發達市場的表現非常出色。我認為，總體而言，美國以外的發達市場接近兩位數。正如我提到的，美國上漲了——我認為如果你加上紙巾和個人護理，上漲了約 1%，主要是受零售庫存變化差異的推動。我們退出了一份非常重要的自有品牌合同。我們在一家大型零售商的一次相當重要的促銷活動中退出或改變了時間。因此，我想說，這影響了美國第四季度的總體情況。但總的來說，我認為我們不會在每個細分市場上具體給出一個數字，但我們預計北美的表現會持續良好和國際發達市場，也對進入那裡的計劃感到非常興奮。

And strong innovation as well. I mean for all the developed markets, we had a very pretty strong innovation pipeline that will come through. But going back to your deconstruction of the top line, I think a couple of things I'd like to highlight on the year and how to think about it. As -- first and foremost, we -- as we go through the year, it's important to note that the first half of the year will be more muted. And when we say more muted, it's important to take into account the fact that, one, we will still lap the private label exit in North America that we talked about just now. So that will continue to impact us in the first half. And then the other bit is also we were lapping very strong comps from last year. As you remember, we grew 10% in the first half, and we grew 5% in the second half. And then the third point is we will still have a lot of pricing that on a year-over-year basis is coming through in the first half because of the carryover. So all that put together would put pressure on volumes because of those three reasons as we think of the first half of the year. As we go into the second part of the year, then that would ease. That's our expectation, and that's the way that I would think about it, Andrea.

還有強大的創新能力。我的意思是，對於所有發達市場，我們都有非常強大的創新渠道。但回到你對頂線的解構，我想我想強調這一年的幾件事以及如何思考它。作為 - 首先，我們 - 在我們度過這一年時，重要的是要注意今年上半年將更加平靜。當我們說得更安靜時，重要的是要考慮到這樣一個事實，即我們仍然會在北美退出我們剛才談到的自有品牌。所以這將在上半年繼續影響我們。然後另一點也是我們從去年開始打磨非常強大的比賽。你記得，我們上半年增長了 10%，下半年增長了 5%。然後第三點是，由於結轉，我們仍然會有很多定價在上半年按年計算。因此，正如我們對今年上半年的看法，由於這三個原因，所有這些因素加在一起會給銷量帶來壓力。當我們進入今年下半年時，這種情況將會緩解。這是我們的期望，也是我考慮的方式，Andrea。

That's helpful. Just one clarification that's missing on the -- when you said 2/3 of the -- correct me if I'm wrong, I understood is like everything that you have in plan in terms of pricing is about 2/3 carryover. So it implies that you have another 1/3 of pricing to come through in the plan?

這很有幫助。只是缺少一個澄清 - 當你說 2/3 - 如果我錯了，請糾正我，我的理解就像你在定價方面計劃的一切都是大約 2/3 結轉。所以這意味著您在計劃中還有另外 1/3 的定價要通過？

Yes. And I said earlier, I can't remember, maybe it was with Steve. But yes, we have a significant portion of carryover pricing that was launched last year that still carries over into this year. And then we've taken additional pricing actions since then. And so we've generally announced pricing actions across markets that are taking effect this quarter. And so that's also factored in the plan.

是的。我之前說過，我不記得了，也許是和史蒂夫在一起的。但是，是的，我們有很大一部分去年推出的結轉定價仍然延續到今年。然後我們從那時起採取了額外的定價行動。因此，我們普遍宣布了本季度生效的跨市場定價行動。所以這也是計劃中的一個因素。

Yes, they go into effect in the biggest markets at the end of Q1.

是的，它們將於第一季度末在最大的市場生效。

Yes. And then on top of that, as I said to Steve, we have additional RGM actions or revenue growth management actions that are more typical than evergreen.

是的。然後最重要的是，正如我對史蒂夫所說，我們有額外的 RGM 行動或收入增長管理行動，這些行動比常青樹更典型。

Like hyperinflationary markets, where we have that pricing is part of the overall number.

就像惡性通貨膨脹市場一樣，定價是總數的一部分。

We'll take our next question from Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

我們將接受來自巴克萊銀行的 Lauren Lieberman 的下一個問題。

So I want to talk a little bit about consumer behavior in North America and elasticity. So I guess first, on Personal Care, I'm sure you're not going to give us a number, but if I make some rough assumptions around the private label exit and inventory destocking, it looks like elasticity is less than kind of a one-for-one on the North America Personal Care business. So just kind of curious on your perspective on that and knowing how much of your innovation has been premium over the last few years, what you're seeing in terms of trade down behavior? Because the market share data looks not great. The brand is losing share to private label overall, but your shares look a little bit softer. And then just on tissue, there, obviously, expect there will be significant elasticity, there always is. But what are you seeing there in terms of that time line to that kind of stabilizing? Should we think about it as when you start to lap the price and if the volume stabilizes? Or is the consumer under so much stress that there's space for that trade down to persist?

所以我想談談北美的消費者行為和彈性。所以我想首先，在個人護理方面，我確定你不會給我們一個數字，但如果我對自有品牌退出和庫存去庫存做一些粗略的假設，看起來彈性不太一對一的北美個人護理業務。所以只是對你對此的看法感到好奇，並且知道你的創新在過去幾年中有多少是溢價的，你在交易行為方面看到了什麼？因為市場份額數據看起來不太好。該品牌的份額總體上正在輸給自有品牌，但您的份額看起來有點疲軟。然後就在紙巾上，很明顯，預計會有顯著的彈性，一直都是。但是，就那種穩定的時間表而言，你在那裡看到了什麼？我們是否應該將其視為當您開始套價並且交易量穩定時？還是消費者承受瞭如此大的壓力，以致於有空間讓這種降價交易持續下去？

Okay. Lauren, I knew you were going to ask this and so Russ and I were on the phone last night working through this. And so anyways, here's a couple of things. One, let me just say in North America, and I would say globally, overall, we're seeing a resilient consumer. And I think that does reflect the essential nature of our categories. Generally, our POS or consumption volume where the POS Nielsen sales is in line with expectations. As I mentioned, our shipment volatility has been a little higher just because of some of these discrete items that we work through. This is the thing Russ and I were looking at last night. I definitely would say observed elasticity was slightly higher or the elasticity impact on volume was a little bit higher in the second half than the first half, but remains, I would say, far below what's modeled. And I think that does reflect the nature of our categories as being essential. And I'll throw a couple of numbers at you. And these are category numbers, so not brand and they're public anyway, so not proprietary as well. But in Q4, pricing was up 7% in diapers. And EQ, right, equivalent units, the measure of volume was down 3%. And so I think as you point out, therefore, the implied elasticity impact is less -- certainly far below one-to-one. The thing that I would throw in there on top of that, as you know, in the second half, us and our competitors have made a lot of count changes across all these categories. And so the EQ definition includes count reduction because it's based on a standard unit, right? And so my venture to guess, almost half of the volume decline is related to count and tissue sheet count changes. So that was diapers. And then in a back issue, yes, for the fourth quarter, price was up 11% for the category and volume was down 7% and recognize I might factor in 3 or 4 points of that 7% there's likely to be a sheet count changes. And then adult care, the outlier because price was up 8% and then volume was still up, right, up 2%. And the delta, I think those were all fourth quarter numbers. What -- and the reason I say the elasticities kind of seems like the impact has increased slightly in the second half as in the first half, pricing was up mid- to high single digit and volume continue to be up. And so there is a difference. I think the consumer environment was different. I do think there is more pressure on the consumer, but I still think the category remains very resilient because of the essential nature of the category. So I'll pause there, Lauren. Does that answer?

好的。 Lauren，我知道你會問這個問題，所以 Russ 和我昨晚通了電話來解決這個問題。所以無論如何，這裡有幾件事。第一，我只想說在北美，我想說在全球範圍內，總體而言，我們看到了一個有彈性的消費者。我認為這確實反映了我們類別的本質。一般來說，我們的 POS 或 POS Nielsen 銷售額符合預期的消費量。正如我所提到的，我們的出貨量波動性略高，只是因為我們處理了其中一些離散項目。這就是 Russ 和我昨晚正在看的東西。我肯定會說下半年觀察到的彈性略高，或者彈性對交易量的影響略高於上半年，但我會說，仍然遠低於建模結果。我認為這確實反映了我們類別的本質是必不可少的。我會給你幾個數字。這些是類別編號，所以不是品牌，而且它們是公開的，所以也不是專有的。但在第四季度，尿布的價格上漲了 7%。 EQ，對，等效單位，體積測量值下降了 3%。因此，我認為正如您指出的那樣，隱含的彈性影響較小 - 當然遠低於一對一。最重要的是，正如你所知，在下半年，我們和我們的競爭對手在所有這些類別中進行了很多計數更改。所以 EQ 定義包括計數減少，因為它基於標准單位，對嗎？所以我大膽猜測，幾乎一半的銷量下降與計數和薄紙計數變化有關。那就是尿布。然後在過刊中，是的，第四季度，該類別的價格上漲了 11%，銷量下降了 7%，我意識到我可能會考慮這 7% 中的 3 或 4 個百分點，紙張數量可能會發生變化.然後是成人護理，異常值，因為價格上漲了 8%，然後銷量仍在上漲，對，上漲 2%。還有三角洲，我認為這些都是第四季度的數字。什麼——我說彈性的原因似乎是影響在下半年略有增加，因為在上半年，價格上漲到中高個位數，銷量繼續上漲。所以這是有區別的。我認為消費環境是不同的。我確實認為消費者面臨更大的壓力，但我仍然認為由於該類別的本質，該類別仍然非常有彈性。所以我會在那裡暫停，勞倫。那有答案嗎？

Yes. That is great. And just the one piece that you missed was on the relative market share performance in personal care and any kind of mix dynamics (inaudible)?

是的。這太棒了。您錯過的唯一一塊是關於個人護理的相對市場份額表現和任何一種混合動力（聽不清）？

Yes. Again, we feel very good about our overall performance. The brands, I think -- in adult care, we were up 12% in consumption in the quarter. Feminine Care, we're up almost double digits. Diapers was down 5%. And the biggest driver behind that that private label exit was a minor one for us, but the bigger one was we have a large retailer that we know when we shifted an event from Q4 last year -- prior year into Q3 of this year. So we lost that on top of that, they had a big private label event, which we know about and planned for and that moved from Q3 to Q4. So there's a double whammy on the share side, and that accounted for the majority of our share impact in the quarter. And that happened in October, I think, the cycle for us. And so we saw it later in the quarter, certainly, better performance from Huggies, and we feel great about where we stand. And as I told (inaudible), we have -- this is the Disney 100, so we've got great commercial programs for our characters on our products. We've got great innovation that we're really excited about. I hate to say, but when you come out and visit with us, we'll take you to our war room on Poop Superiority and -- and so -- but we feel very good about our offering and what we're going to be doing there.

是的。同樣，我們對我們的整體表現感到非常滿意。我認為這些品牌——在成人護理方面，我們本季度的消費增長了 12%。女性護理，我們增長了近兩位數。尿布下降了 5%。自有品牌退出背後的最大驅動力對我們來說是次要的，但更大的驅動力是我們有一家大型零售商，當我們將活動從去年第四季度 - 前一年轉移到今年第三季度時，我們就知道了。所以我們失去了最重要的是，他們舉辦了一場大型自有品牌活動，我們知道併計劃了這一活動，並將其從第三季度轉移到第四季度。因此，股票方面存在雙重打擊，這佔了本季度我們股票影響的大部分。我認為，這發生在 10 月，對我們來說是一個週期。所以我們在本季度晚些時候看到了它，當然，Huggies 的表現更好，我們對自己的立場感覺很好。正如我所說（聽不清），我們有 - 這是迪士尼 100，所以我們為我們的產品角色提供了很棒的商業計劃。我們有偉大的創新，我們真的很興奮。我不想說，但是當你出來拜訪我們時，我們會帶你到我們在 Poop Superiority 上的作戰室——等等——但我們對我們的產品和我們將要成為的人感到非常滿意在那裡做。

I mean I am going to put the poop superiority visit.

我的意思是我要進行便便優勢訪問。

I know it sounds funny on a call, but this is the business I'm in.

我知道打電話聽起來很有趣，但這就是我從事的行業。

No, I got it. I got it. And then I'd be remiss if I didn't jump in on a modeling question. But just briefly, on the FX headwinds relative to what just seem like not terribly well timed hedges, unfortunately, and then the wage inflation that you called out. Just any dimension like gross margin versus OpEx just how to treat those as we work through the pieces.

不，我明白了。我知道了。然後，如果我不參與建模問題，那我就是失職了。但簡而言之，不幸的是，外匯逆風相對於看起來不太合時宜的對沖，然後是你所說的工資通脹。任何維度，如毛利率與運營支出，以及如何在我們處理這些問題時處理這些問題。

Yes. So the $200 million is on the other operating costs, that's all gross margin as you model it. And the -- in terms of the ForEx, a meaningful portion of it would be gross margin. There's a little bit on translation because of earnings, and there's a little bit on mark-to-market of any liabilities or assets we have in foreign currency, but the lion's share of it would be in gross margin.

是的。因此，這 2 億美元用於其他運營成本，這就是您建模時的所有毛利率。而且 - 就 ForEx 而言，其中很大一部分將是毛利率。由於收益的原因，有一點換算，我們以外幣計價的任何負債或資產都有一點按市值計算，但其中最大的份額是毛利率。

We'll take our next question from Javier Escalante with Evercore.

我們將從 Javier Escalante 和 Evercore 提出下一個問題。

I would like to come back to this elasticity question. So you mentioned that it's healthier, but yet your volumes are down 7%, and I'm sure you could have itemized how much is your underlying volume growth versus market growth. So if you can give us that. So what is the underlying growth without going to this happening in continents or diapers, just tell us, of the 7% volume decline, how much were onetimers? Because the other branded competitors also saw volume decline of 6%. And my concern is how -- what makes you think that you can keep pricing at these levels given what this contradiction between the elasticity that you mentioned that is better, but we see this mid- to high single-digit volume declines.

我想回到這個彈性問題。所以你提到它更健康，但你的銷量下降了 7%，我相信你可以逐項列出你的潛在銷量增長與市場增長的比例。所以，如果你能給我們那個。那麼，在大陸或尿布不發生這種情況的情況下，潛在的增長是多少，請告訴我們，7% 的銷量下降，曾經有多少？因為其他品牌競爭對手的銷量也下降了 6%。我擔心的是 - 是什麼讓你認為你可以將定價保持在這些水平，因為你提到的彈性之間的矛盾更好，但我們看到這個中高個位數的數量下降。

Yes. I mean, Javier, I think the thing that you have to get picture is there's a difference between what's happening in consumption, right? What's happening sold-through to consumers versus shipments, right? And so -- and I think that's what maybe the other manufacturer, I didn't listen to their call, but I'm also supposing I think they probably lived through some of the same effects as us. There's a difference between what's consumed, right? And so I said for the quarter, in North America across our businesses, our Personal Care business grew in consumption by 7%. Our tissue business grew by 7%. In the long run, I think you'll have to -- hopefully, you'll agree that in the long run, shipments should equal consumption, right? So you're not going to perpetually deplete the retailer inventories or eventually grow retail inventories over time, right? So generally, that's kind of what I look at as kind of the ongoing health of the business. In the quarter, we did see some discrete changes, particularly as it relates to one -- retailer inventory, which is probably the biggest impact for us in the quarter. But the other aspect for us is we did exit a pretty significant private label contract, which added a piece of it as well. So those are discrete items, in general. And I said on an earlier question, the retailer inventory changes for us, it's about typical for what we normally see. And so -- and it goes back and forth from year to year. And so it tends to build itself back up over time. And that's why I don't view retail inventory changes as representative of what's happening to elasticity. I view what's happening to consume volume and consume dollars, right, as to what's happening with elasticity. Does that make sense?

是的。我的意思是，Javier，我認為你必須了解的是消費中發生的事情之間存在差異，對吧？銷售給消費者和出貨量之間發生了什麼，對嗎？所以——我想這可能是其他製造商的想法，我沒有聽他們的電話，但我也假設我認為他們可能經歷了一些與我們相同的影響。消耗的東西之間是有區別的，對吧？所以我說這個季度，在北美，我們的個人護理業務的消費量增長了 7%。我們的紙巾業務增長了 7%。從長遠來看，我認為你必須——希望你會同意，從長遠來看，出貨量應該等於消費量，對吧？所以你不會永遠耗盡零售商庫存或隨著時間的推移最終增加零售庫存，對吧？所以總的來說，這就是我對業務持續健康的看法。在本季度，我們確實看到了一些離散的變化，特別是與零售商庫存相關的變化，這可能是本季度對我們影響最大的。但對我們來說，另一方面是我們確實退出了一份非常重要的自有品牌合同，其中也增加了一部分。所以一般來說，這些都是離散的項目。我在之前的一個問題上說過，零售商庫存對我們來說是變化的，這對於我們通常看到的情況來說是典型的。所以 - 它每年都來回走動。因此，隨著時間的推移，它往往會自行恢復。這就是為什麼我不認為零售庫存變化代表彈性正在發生的事情。我查看消費量和消費美元的情況，對，關於彈性的情況。那有意義嗎？

Yes, I couldn't agree more, but you have not quantified those onetimers. So what I'm asking you is to tell me, what do you think is underlying category growth for you or the branded competitor and inclusive of private label because you are talking about price increases in addition to whatever carryover comes from this year. And we wonder to what extent you are taking too much pricing and whether you can keep it?

是的，我完全同意，但你還沒有量化那些曾經的人。所以我要問你的是告訴我，你認為你或品牌競爭對手的潛在類別增長是什麼，包括自有品牌，因為你談論的是價格上漲以及今年的結轉。我們想知道您在多大程度上採取了過多的定價以及您是否可以保留它？

Well, all I'll say is the underlying category growth in the fourth quarter was 7% for both personal care and tissue.

好吧，我要說的是，第四季度個人護理和衛生紙的基礎品類增長率均為 7%。

So what about volume, not pricing. I'm referring to volume declines of 7%, Mike, if you could underline...

那麼關於數量而不是定價呢？我指的是 7% 的銷量下降，邁克，如果你能強調...

Yes, that's the shipment volume decline and then the consumption volume decline was low single digit -- low to mid-single digit.

是的，那是出貨量下降，然後消費量下降是低個位數——低到中個位數。

Go ahead.

前進。

Javier, going back to your question -- the answer to the question that you have on the onetimers, we have about three points would have been the onetimers. If you think of the inventory destock, if you think of the private label contracts, that would have been about 3 points out of that set.

哈維爾，回到你的問題——你對一次性問題的回答，我們有大約三分是一次性的。如果你想到庫存去庫存，如果你想到自有品牌合同，那將是那一組中的大約 3 個點。

Excellent. And then I have a more strategic question when it comes to private label. What do you see private label role in diapers, both in the U.S. and Europe? And to what extent that does it make sense to hold on to your operations in the U.K.?

出色的。然後，當涉及到自有品牌時，我有一個更具戰略意義的問題。在美國和歐洲，您如何看待自有品牌在紙尿褲中的作用？在多大程度上保留您在英國的業務是有意義的？

Yes. We exited our personal care business, primarily -- especially our diaper business in the U.K. about 10 years ago. So I'm not sure what you're referencing there.

是的。大約 10 年前，我們主要退出了個人護理業務，尤其是我們在英國的尿佈業務。所以我不確定你在那裡指的是什麼。

Andrex, the tissue business as well.

Andrex，紙巾業務也是如此。

Yes. I mean, yes, we have -- yes, we have a great tissue business. It's the market leader in the U.K. What's the question?

是的。我的意思是，是的，我們有——是的，我們有很棒的紙巾業務。它是英國的市場領導者。有什麼問題？

The question is if you can tell us how is private label pricing in the U.S. versus the U.K., which we don't have -- I personally don't have access to and whether it makes sense to hold onto the tissue operations in the U.K. given the situation there.

問題是，您是否可以告訴我們美國和英國的自有品牌定價如何，我們沒有——我個人無法訪問，以及在英國保留紙巾業務是否有意義。鑑於那裡的情況。

Okay. I got it. I understand. Yes, overall, again, we feel great about our brands and where their position is. Andrex we have taken significant pricing just as we've done in the U.S. this year. it continues to perform well. And despite the price increases, it has grown share. And so it's a leading brand in the United Kingdom. And much by consumers. And so it's a great business for us. Certainly, this year, there's room for improvement because of all the cost pressure. And so that's the priority for us, as you've heard all year is we've been working to recover our margins on our branded businesses to offset the significant inflation that we've had over the course of the year. And I think the teams have done a fantastic job of that. That said, our margins are still below where they were pre-pandemic. And so we're working our way back up towards that.

好的。我知道了。我明白。是的，總體而言，我們再次對我們的品牌及其定位感到滿意。正如我們今年在美國所做的那樣，我們對 Andrex 進行了重大定價。它繼續表現良好。儘管價格上漲，它的份額卻增加了。因此它是英國的領先品牌。深受消費者喜愛。所以這對我們來說是一項偉大的業務。當然，今年，由於所有成本壓力，還有改進的空間。因此，這是我們的首要任務，正如您全年所聽到的那樣，我們一直在努力恢復我們品牌業務的利潤率，以抵消我們在這一年中遇到的嚴重通貨膨脹。我認為團隊在這方面做得非常出色。也就是說，我們的利潤率仍低於大流行前的水平。因此，我們正在朝著這個方向努力。

We'll take our last question from Kevin Grundy with Jefferies.

我們將與 Jefferies 一起接受 Kevin Grundy 的最後一個問題。

Congratulations, and welcome. And Mike, just to maybe tie together some of the more recent questions. I wanted to hit on your U.S. market share, which I think Lauren touched on a bit and then the promotional environment, which Javier, I think was just kind of getting at a little bit. But very specifically, how this plays out with the promotional environment? Some of the conversations we have with investors now is the pricing stick. Is the consumer going to be able to with standard, particularly in some of your categories. And then obviously, what's going on with commodities is not lost on retailers either. There's still kind of a long way to go to get back to gross margin targets, but still more benign oil pulp et cetera. And then I'm sure your share is not quite where you want it to be in some categories where it's eroded, tissue, diapers, wipes, et cetera. So question just around promotional environment, how you see this playing out in your categories given the recessionary backdrop in more benign commodity cost environment and maybe what you've embedded in your outlook? And that will do it for me.

恭喜，歡迎。邁克，也許只是為了將最近的一些問題聯繫起來。我想談談你在美國的市場份額，我認為 Lauren 談到了一點，然後是促銷環境，我認為 Javier 只是稍微談到了一點。但非常具體地說，這與促銷環境有何關係？我們現在與投資者進行的一些對話是定價問題。消費者是否能夠使用標準，特別是在您的某些類別中。顯然，零售商也不會忽視大宗商品的情況。要回到毛利率目標還有很長的路要走，但油漿等仍然更為良性。然後我確定您的份額在某些被侵蝕的類別中不是您想要的，紙巾、尿布、濕巾等。因此，圍繞促銷環境提出問題，考慮到商品成本環境更為良性的衰退背景，以及您在前景中嵌入了什麼，您如何看待這種情況在您的類別中發揮作用？那會為我做的。

Okay. Yes, Kevin, let me try to package that up. I mean, one, let me start with the share. It was a bit softer than we like in Q4, but I feel confident we're moving on the right track. I mean the softness was primarily in diapers for the reason I told Lauren, which is, we had a big event come out and then a big private label event, which we happen to supply go in. And so that had a big impact on market share in the quarter. For the full year, we are upper even in 5 of 8 categories. We were down in 5 in Q4. That's why I said it's softened in Q4. We'll get it back on the right track. I do think -- I feel really good about our plans for this year and feel confident in our commercial activation in North America and then in nearly all markets around the world. I mean we have a few discrete items we're working across in international markets. In terms of the pricing environment, I would say the promotion environment right now remains competitive, but I would say, overall, constructive, given the cost environment we've seen kind of, obviously, the broad pricing actions from most manufacturers across categories. Promotion frequency has returned to normal levels, both in tissue and personal care. And that happened a while back. I would say the depth of promotion remains a bit shallow than historical, and I think that's related to the cost environment. However, on the consumer side, we can -- certainly, my comments on elasticity and the essential nature of our categories, notwithstanding, I do sense the consumer is under pressure. And so -- and we've been out talking to our top customers. And so we recognize that the consumer is working through some challenges pocketbook wise. And so we're going to meet them where they need us and make sure that we're continuing to offer a strong value across our business. And the thing about us is our aim is to lead our categories. And so we're not really -- we're not a niche premium player. We want to play across both value and premium. And so we have a broad offering, and we want to make sure we support our consumers effectively along that. But for the most part, yes, we have taken significant pricing. We are managing our promotions with discipline, and we'll continue to do that. I don't know if that answers exactly what you're looking for, Kevin.

好的。是的，凱文，讓我試著把它打包。我的意思是，第一，讓我從分享開始。它比我們在第四季度所希望的要柔和一些，但我相信我們正在走在正確的軌道上。我的意思是，柔軟度主要體現在紙尿褲上，因為我告訴勞倫，我們舉辦了一場盛大的活動，然後又舉辦了一場大型自有品牌活動，我們恰好供應這些活動。這對市場產生了重大影響季度份額。對於全年，我們甚至在 8 個類別中的 5 個類別中處於領先地位。我們在第四季度下降了 5。這就是為什麼我說它在第四季度有所軟化。我們會讓它回到正確的軌道上。我確實認為 - 我對我們今年的計劃感到非常滿意，並對我們在北美以及全球幾乎所有市場的商業活動充滿信心。我的意思是我們在國際市場上有一些離散的項目。在定價環境方面，我想說現在的促銷環境仍然具有競爭力，但我想說，總體而言，考慮到我們看到的成本環境，顯然是大多數製造商跨類別的廣泛定價行動，我要說的是建設性的。紙巾和個人護理產品的促銷頻率已恢復到正常水平。那是不久前發生的。我想說促銷的深度仍然比歷史淺一些，我認為這與成本環境有關。然而，在消費者方面，我們可以——當然，我對彈性和我們類別的本質的評論，儘管如此，我確實感覺到消費者面臨壓力。所以——我們一直在與我們的頂級客戶交談。因此，我們認識到消費者正在明智地應對一些挑戰。因此，我們將在他們需要我們的地方與他們會面，並確保我們繼續在我們的業務中提供強大的價值。關於我們的事情是我們的目標是引領我們的類別。所以我們不是——我們不是一個小眾的高端玩家。我們想兼顧價值和溢價。因此，我們提供廣泛的產品，我們希望確保在此過程中有效地支持我們的消費者。但在大多數情況下，是的，我們已經採取了重要的定價。我們正在嚴格管理我們的促銷活動，我們將繼續這樣做。凱文，我不知道這是否能準確回答您的問題。

I think that helps. But just to kind of tie that in with your intentions on the advertising and marketing, is it fair to say that should the promotional environment pick up because of a weaker consumer potentially from your position, trade down in your categories that you -- it's not optimal, but you kind of view that 100 basis points in advertising and marketing, if you have to reallocate that to trade promotion as the year progresses then you cross that bridge when you get there. Is that a fair way to think about it?

我認為這有幫助。但是，為了將其與您在廣告和營銷方面的意圖聯繫起來，是否可以公平地說，如果促銷環境因您的位置可能較弱的消費者而回升，那麼您在您的類別中進行交易 - 它不是最佳，但你有點認為廣告和營銷中的 100 個基點，如果你必須隨著時間的推移將其重新分配給貿易促進，那麼當你到達那裡時你就過了那座橋。這是一個公平的思考方式嗎？

Yes. I'll say, yes, we'll cross that bridge when we get there. You have to -- my personal bias is, I'm not a fan of driving the business through promotion. I don't -- I can -- we can do it effectively because we know our ROIs on trade promotion as well as we know our advertising ROIs. And so -- and frankly, now, the returns on both are okay. I like the advertising ones better. And so that's kind of my go-to. And I think it's better for the long-term health of the brand. And frankly, Kevin, it's related to the question you're asking our customers expect it. I mean they're concerned about value for their shoppers. And so they're not the biggest fans of all these price increases. But part of what they're looking for from us is to make sure that we're bringing commercial programming to grow the category for a long term. And they're so -- they're excited about our innovation, and they're excited about the commercial ideas that we're bringing this year, so they want us to bring it. And so that's probably the bigger reason why we've picked up the investment in our advertising.

是的。我會說，是的，當我們到達那裡時，我們會穿過那座橋。你必須——我個人的偏見是，我不喜歡通過促銷來推動業務發展。我不——我可以——我們可以有效地做到這一點，因為我們知道我們在貿易促進方面的投資回報率以及我們的廣告投資回報率。所以——坦率地說，現在，兩者的回報都還不錯。我更喜歡廣告的。所以這是我的首選。而且我認為這對品牌的長期健康更好。坦率地說，凱文，這與您向我們的客戶提出的問題有關。我的意思是他們關心購物者的價值。因此，他們並不是所有這些價格上漲的最大支持者。但他們對我們的部分要求是確保我們帶來商業節目以長期發展該類別。他們是如此 - 他們對我們的創新感到興奮，他們對我們今年帶來的商業創意感到興奮，所以他們希望我們帶來它。因此，這可能是我們加大廣告投資的更大原因。

Shelby, I'm going to make my closing comments. I'll just say a couple of things. One, I'm confident in the strength of our brands and our commercial capabilities to position Kimberly-Clark for the long term. I'm really proud of the focused leadership talent in this organization and confident that we'll drive business -- drive our business great long-term shareholder value and fulfill our purpose of better care for a better world. So I want to thank you all for joining us today. And with that, we'll sign off.

謝爾比，我要發表我的結束評論。我只想說幾件事。第一，我相信我們的品牌實力和我們的商業能力能夠長期定位金佰利。我真的為這個組織中專注的領導人才感到自豪，並相信我們將推動業務——推動我們的業務實現偉大的長期股東價值，並實現我們更好地關愛更美好世界的目標。所以我要感謝大家今天加入我們。有了這個，我們就結束了。

That concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。