金百利克拉克 (KMB) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your patience in holding. We now have your presenters in conference. (Operator Instructions) It is now my pleasure to introduce today's first presenter, Taryn Miller. Please go ahead.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的耐心等待。我們現在有您的演講者參加會議。 （操作員說明）現在我很高興介紹今天的第一位主持人 Taryn Miller。請繼續。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Kimberly-Clark's Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. With me today are Mike Hsu, our Chairman and CEO; and Nelson Urdaneta, our CFO. Earlier this morning, we issued our earnings news release and published prepared remarks from Mike and Nelson that summarize our second quarter results and 2022 outlook. Both documents are available in the Investors section of our website. In just a moment, Mike will share opening comments and then we'll take your questions.

謝謝大家，大家早上好。歡迎參加金佰利第二季度收益電話會議。今天和我在一起的是我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Mike Hsu；和我們的首席財務官 Nelson Urdaneta。今天早上早些時候，我們發布了收益新聞稿，並發表了 Mike 和 Nelson 準備好的評論，總結了我們的第二季度業績和 2022 年展望。這兩份文件都可以在我們網站的“投資者”部分找到。稍後，邁克將分享開場評論，然後我們將回答您的問題。

During this call, we may make forward-looking statements. Please see the Risk Factors section of our latest annual report on Form 10-K and the second quarter 10-Q for further discussion of forward-looking statements. We may also refer to adjusted results and outlook. Both exclude certain items described in this morning's news release. The release has further information about these adjustments and reconciliations to comparable GAAP financial measures. Now I'll turn the call over to Mike.

在本次電話會議期間，我們可能會做出前瞻性陳述。請參閱我們關於 10-K 表格和第二季度 10-Q 的最新年度報告的風險因素部分，以進一步討論前瞻性陳述。我們也可能會參考調整後的結果和展望。兩者都排除了今天上午新聞稿中描述的某些項目。該新聞稿包含有關這些調整和與可比 GAAP 財務措施的對賬的更多信息。現在我將把電話轉給邁克。

Okay. Thank you, Taryn. Good morning, everyone. I'm proud of our team's execution as we closed our first half with 9% organic sales growth in the second quarter. We delivered robust gains in all segments, our growth strategy is working, and our teams are executing with excellence in what continues to be a volatile operating environment.

好的。謝謝你，泰林。大家，早安。我為我們團隊的執行感到自豪，因為我們在第二季度以 9% 的有機銷售增長結束了上半年。我們在所有領域都取得了強勁的增長，我們的增長戰略正在奏效，我們的團隊在持續動蕩的運營環境中表現出色。

Clearly, our results reflect this ongoing volatility. For the year, we're now anticipating $300 million of additional input cost inflation. We remain committed to recovering and eventually expanding our margins and thus, we've taken further action to realize additional pricing and cost savings to mitigate these headwinds. We continue to expect pricing and cost savings to fully offset the effects of inflation over time.

顯然，我們的結果反映了這種持續的波動。對於這一年，我們現在預計投入成本會增加 3 億美元。我們仍然致力於恢復並最終擴大我們的利潤率，因此，我們採取了進一步的行動來實現額外的定價和成本節約，以緩解這些不利因素。我們繼續預計定價和成本節約將隨著時間的推移完全抵消通貨膨脹的影響。

Based on the strength of our top line, we're raising our full year organic sales outlook to increase 5% to 7%. We're maintaining our adjusted EPS guidance. However, based on current conditions, including our updated input cost outlook, we now expect to be in the lower end of that EPS range. We'll continue to manage our business with discipline as we navigate near-term headwinds. Based on the pace and breadth of our pricing actions, we anticipate some volume impact over the balance of the year. Still, we're encouraged by the overall health of our categories and our brands. Our brands remain essential.

基於我們收入的實力，我們將全年有機銷售前景提高 5% 至 7%。我們維持調整後的每股收益指引。然而，根據目前的情況，包括我們更新的投入成本展望，我們現在預計每股收益範圍的低端。在應對近期逆風時，我們將繼續以紀律管理我們的業務。根據我們定價行動的速度和廣度，我們預計對今年剩餘時間的銷量會產生一些影響。儘管如此，我們對我們的品類和品牌的整體健康狀況感到鼓舞。我們的品牌仍然必不可少。

We also know consumers are seeking greater value and we'll continue to sharpen our offering to enhance our market position. We remain committed to delivering balanced and sustainable growth. In the near term, we're taking necessary action to recover margins. We're also continuing to invest in our brands to enable us to grow sustainably now and for the long term. Now we'd like to address your questions.

我們也知道消費者正在尋求更大的價值，我們將繼續加強我們的產品以提高我們的市場地位。我們將繼續致力於實現平衡和可持續的增長。在短期內，我們正在採取必要的行動來恢復利潤率。我們還將繼續投資於我們的品牌，以使我們現在和長期可持續發展。現在我們想解決您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Dara Mohsenian with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的 Dara Mohsenian。

So first, just a couple of clarity questions. The increase in your full year organic sales growth guidance for 2022, is that driven by higher pricing or a higher volume assumption? And then second, with the $300 million in higher cost pressures now expected for the full year, you obviously mentioned a combination of pricing and cost savings to help offset that.

所以首先，只有幾個清晰的問題。您對 2022 年全年有機銷售增長指導的增加是由更高的定價還是更高的銷量假設驅動的？其次，由於現在預計全年將面臨 3 億美元的更高成本壓力，您顯然提到了定價和成本節約的結合，以幫助抵消這一壓力。

Can you just be a bit more specific if you're planning additional price increases, specifically in the back half of the year? Does that offset a good amount of the cost pressures? How should we sort of think about the pricing outlook changing in response to the cost outlook, specifically in the back half of the year?

如果您計劃進一步提價，特別是在下半年，您能否更具體一點？這是否可以抵消大量的成本壓力？我們應該如何看待定價前景因成本前景而發生的變化，特別是在下半年？

Yes. Thanks, Dara. I'll start and maybe Nelson can provide some additional color. But overall, I think the organic outlook and the increase in the outlook reflects both volume and price. Overall, we feel like our pricing execution is going very well. We are driving the realization. You can see it in the numbers.

是的。謝謝，達拉。我會開始，也許尼爾森可以提供一些額外的顏色。但總的來說，我認為有機前景和前景的增長反映了數量和價格。總體而言，我們覺得我們的定價執行進展順利。我們正在推動實現。你可以在數字中看到它。

But the second part of it is also the volume is holding up a little bit better than we originally planned. And I think that reflects, one, what we said before, which is resilience in the consumer overall but also the strength of our brands. And we feel really great about the commercial execution that we have around the world. And that includes launches of innovation, improvements in product quality, our digital marketing programs, the execution we're driving at shelf. And so overall, that's still working despite the necessity for us to price our products to recover the costs and the margins.

但它的第二部分也是音量比我們最初計劃的要好一些。我認為這反映了我們之前所說的，即消費者整體的彈性，也反映了我們品牌的實力。我們對我們在世界各地的商業執行感到非常滿意。這包括推出創新、提高產品質量、我們的數字營銷計劃、我們在貨架上推動的執行。因此，總體而言，儘管我們有必要對產品定價以收回成本和利潤，但這仍然有效。

So overall, I'd say it's a pretty good balance of both volume and price on the organic outlook. And then on the cost front, yes, we're going to need it. We have taken additional pricing actions and that's globally. And we've taken a few actions since the beginning of the year. Actually, we announced another action in North America just last week. And so we continue to execute.

所以總的來說，我想說這是有機前景的數量和價格的一個很好的平衡。然後在成本方面，是的，我們將需要它。我們已經採取了額外的定價措施，而且是全球性的。自今年年初以來，我們已經採取了一些行動。實際上，我們上周剛剛在北美宣布了另一項行動。所以我們繼續執行。

And again, overall, philosophically, I've said in the past, Dara, that we expect pricing to generally offset the effects of inflation over time. It gets tougher as the increases come toward the middle or end of the year to kind of catch up to it. But again, we are expecting our teams to be able to offset inflation over the long term. Nelson, do you have something to add?

再一次，總的來說，從哲學上講，我過去說過，達拉，我們預計定價通常會隨著時間的推移抵消通貨膨脹的影響。隨著接近年中或年底的增長要趕上它，它變得更加艱難。但同樣，我們希望我們的團隊能夠長期抵消通貨膨脹。尼爾森，你有什麼要補充的嗎？

Absolutely. And I would add, Dara, a couple of things there as well. I mean, one, yes, as Mike said, I mean, pricing is one of the key levers as we're seeking to offset the pricing pressures that we're having. But also, we got to keep in mind our cost savings FORCE program, which will accelerate as we go into the second half. So the combination of those 2 will help us offset as we exit the year that bit.

絕對地。我還要補充一點，達拉，還有幾件事。我的意思是，一個，是的，正如邁克所說，我的意思是，定價是我們尋求抵消我們所面臨的定價壓力的關鍵槓桿之一。而且，我們必須牢記我們的成本節約 FORCE 計劃，隨著我們進入下半年，該計劃將加速。因此，這兩者的結合將幫助我們在退出那一年時抵消。

Okay, that's helpful. And then maybe taking a step back and thinking about the broader pricing environment in general, geographically. First, just in the U.S., there's obviously been some very public margin pressures that are playing out at some of your larger retailer partners. There's worries about consumer pressure points and macros. You mentioned internally, the historical pricing has gone well. The volume elasticity has been limited.

好的，這很有幫助。然後也許退後一步，從地理上考慮更廣泛的定價環境。首先，就在美國，顯然存在一些非常公開的利潤壓力，這些壓力正在你的一些大型零售商合作夥伴身上發揮作用。人們擔心消費者的壓力點和宏觀。您在內部提到，歷史定價進展順利。體積彈性受到限制。

But have you seen any change in retailers' receptivity in the U.S. to pricing, given some of the dynamics I mentioned earlier? Does that sort of require a more judicious approach to pricing on your part in the U.S. specifically? And then second, just in some of your key emerging markets, maybe you can give us an update on consumer demand elasticity there to higher pricing and what you're seeing from a competitive standpoint.

但是，鑑於我之前提到的一些動態，您是否看到美國零售商對定價的接受度有任何變化？這是否需要您在美國採取更明智的定價方法？其次，就在你們的一些主要新興市場，也許你們可以向我們提供有關那裡消費者需求彈性的最新信息，以提高定價以及從競爭的角度看到的情況。

Yes. Great questions, Dara. A couple of things. And you and I have talked about this in the past. I'd say that retailer behavior is -- I know there's a lot being said out there. I find it to be consistent with what it's been historically over my 30 years of working in this industry. And I think it starts with the fact that I think we've learned over time, our interests are generally aligned. I mean -- and what do I mean by that?

是的。好問題，達拉。有幾件事。你和我過去曾討論過這個問題。我想說的是零售商的行為——我知道那裡有很多說法。我發現它與我在這個行業工作 30 年的歷史一致。我認為這始於我認為隨著時間的推移我們已經學會了，我們的興趣大體上是一致的。我的意思是——我的意思是什麼？

And one is we're both after the long-term growth of our categories, right? We jointly run these categories together. For them, it's in their store and for us, it is our business overall. But we're after kind of long-term sustainable growth. And that's one big thing. Second big thing we're after is delivering consumers a great value. And that comes in many different ways. In some ways, that comes with solid price points that reflect the value consumers are seeking. In a lot of ways, especially in our categories, it reflects -- it means the right kind of innovation on product quality that delivers to consumers the benefits that they're seeking.

一個是我們都在追求我們類別的長期增長，對吧？我們共同經營這些類別。對他們來說，這是在他們的商店裡，對我們來說，這是我們的整體業務。但我們追求的是一種長期的可持續增長。這是一件大事。我們追求的第二件大事是為消費者提供巨大的價值。這有很多不同的方式。在某些方面，這帶來了反映消費者正在尋求的價值的可靠價格點。在很多方面，尤其是在我們的類別中，它反映了——它意味著對產品質量進行正確的創新，為消費者帶來他們所尋求的好處。

And so I think with those 2 foundational points, we are sensitive to the pricing. But we also do both -- I'd say, on both sides, I understand that we need to be able to profitably grow over the long term. And so again, we're sensitive to the pressure that's out there. We read the similar news reports. We've had the discussions with our customers, and we have been taking price. But we are doing it, I would say, thoughtfully and planfully. So maybe that's part one.

所以我認為有了這兩個基本點，我們對定價很敏感。但我們也兩者兼而有之——我想說，在雙方，我都明白我們需要能夠長期盈利增長。再說一次，我們對外面的壓力很敏感。我們閱讀了類似的新聞報導。我們已經與客戶進行了討論，並且我們一直在定價。但我會說，我們正在做這件事，是經過深思熟慮和有計劃的。所以也許這是第一部分。

And then on the D&E question, yes, I think overall price -- the pricing and volume strength really reflects the consumer resilience and the essential nature of our categories overall. I would say, Dara, that consumers appear to be somewhat more resilient in developed markets. Our performance, high single, low double-digit growth across all of our developed markets, multiple share point growth -- multi-point share growth in most of our developed markets.

然後在 D&E 問題上，是的，我認為整體價格——定價和銷量實力確實反映了消費者的彈性和我們整體類別的基本性質。達拉，我想說的是，發達市場的消費者似乎更有彈性。我們的業績，在我們所有發達市場的高單位數、低兩位數增長，多點增長——我們大多數發達市場的多點份額增長。

I think we have seen some price lagging in D&E from competitors. And so our shares have softened a bit in D&E. And while we have been driving price, we recognize that we've advanced pricing maybe further and faster than some of the competition. So we're going to have to continue to monitor that situation closely.

我認為我們已經看到競爭對手的 D&E 價格有所滯後。因此，我們在 D&E 的股價有所走軟。雖然我們一直在推動價格，但我們認識到我們的定價可能比某些競爭對手更快更快。因此，我們將不得不繼續密切監視這種情況。

The other thing that we're seeing a little bit more in D&E than we are in developed markets is a bit more trade-down. I wouldn't say significantly more but there is a difference there. And I think I've talked about this in past calls. In Latin America, we have a leading -- the leading value offering and the leading premium offering. And we're really glad we have the breadth of that scope because that allows us to pivot our business appropriately when the consumers are looking for that. So overall, we feel good about where we stand. We are watching price gaps in D&E, a little bit in North America as well and we're sensitive to that.

我們在 D&E 中看到的另一件事比我們在發達市場中看到的要多一點，那就是更多的折衷。我不會說更多，但那裡有區別。我想我在過去的電話會議中已經談到了這一點。在拉丁美洲，我們擁有領先的——領先的價值產品和領先的優質產品。而且我們真的很高興我們擁有該範圍的廣度，因為這使我們能夠在消費者正在尋找它時適當地調整我們的業務。所以總的來說，我們對自己的立場感覺很好。我們正在關注 D&E 的價格差距，在北美也有一點點，我們對此很敏感。

Our next question will come from Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的 Lauren Lieberman。

So just following actually on that thread around some sensitivity and watching for trade-down and the mention of the portfolio breadth you have in Latin America. I was curious on what, if anything, you are doing in terms of shelf sets, merchandising of the more value or mid-tier products in the portfolio versus the premium end. Are there things that you are doing proactively rather than reactively to shift the mix of what you are supporting? And if not, why not? Because your categories do, over time, tend to feature on the higher end of the list of those that can see trade-down and be more sensitive not in terms of overall consumption but rather what is being consumed.

因此，只需圍繞一些敏感性實際關注該主題，並註意交易下降和提及您在拉丁美洲擁有的投資組合廣度。我很好奇，如果有的話，你在貨架組、產品組合中更具價值或中端產品的銷售與高端產品方面做了什麼。您是否正在積極而不是被動地做一些事情來改變您所支持的組合？如果沒有，為什麼不呢？因為隨著時間的推移，您的類別往往會出現在那些可以看到折價的列表的高端，並且對整體消費更敏感，而不是對正在消費的東西更敏感。

Yes. Great point, Lauren. And this point, we have discussed this in the past, and I'd say yes, particularly in D&E, you're seeing student bodies shift to the left, right? And we shifted to the right just a few years ago. And I think I talked -- a couple of years ago, we were a highly developed value business and a very small premium business. And this is maybe about 3 or 4 years ago, we were down. And there was a big shift to premiumize. At that point, I think the market was receptive to that.

是的。好點子，勞倫。而這一點，我們過去討論過，我會說是的，特別是在 D&E，你看到學生團體向左移動，對嗎？就在幾年前，我們向右移動了。我想我說過 - 幾年前，我們是一家高度發展的價值企業和一個非常小的高端企業。這可能是大約 3 或 4 年前，我們很失望。高端化發生了巨大轉變。那時，我認為市場接受了這一點。

So we made a lot of progress, all the things you talk about, the appropriate pack counts, the improvements in product quality, the merchandising and everything else. And so we made a huge shift in terms of our premium mix in a market like Brazil. That said, 2 years ago, when the economy started softening, we started shifting back. And we're glad we did. And that yielded us, last year, the leading position in both value and the leading position in premium. We feel great about that.

所以我們取得了很大的進步，你談論的所有事情，適當的包裝數量，產品質量的改進，商品推銷和其他一切。因此，我們在巴西等市場的優質組合方面做出了巨大轉變。也就是說，兩年前，當經濟開始走軟時，我們開始向後移動。我們很高興我們做到了。去年，這讓我們在價值和溢價方面都處於領先地位。我們對此感覺很好。

And those are all the tactics that play out for us not just in developing and emerging markets, but we do that in developed markets as well. And you're absolutely right. And we think, again, our broad portfolio of premium through value offering enables us to flex with demand. And as I point out in the near term, we are prioritizing margin recovery and so our pricing has advanced. And so we are watching the price gaps, and we'll make the appropriate adjustments as we go through the year.

這些都是我們不僅在發展中和新興市場發揮作用的策略，而且我們也在發達市場這樣做。你是絕對正確的。我們再次認為，我們通過價值提供的廣泛優質產品組合使我們能夠根據需求靈活調整。正如我在短期內指出的那樣，我們正在優先考慮利潤率恢復，因此我們的定價已經提高。因此，我們正在關注價格差距，我們將在這一年中做出適當的調整。

Okay, great. And then on the cost savings, as Nelson, you mentioned, there's significant -- it looks like there'll be more FORCE savings in the back half of the year. And just knowing that not just for Kimberly-Clark but for many of your peers in the industry, getting at productivity has been pretty tough in this environment, whether it's asking suppliers for better pricing, whether it's getting into the plants and working on putting in place new cost savings, mechanisms or projects. So I was curious, frankly, a degree of confidence in that acceleration. What is it that you expect to change that should allow for you to see greater FORCE savings in the back half of the year?

好，太棒了。然後在成本節約方面，正如你提到的納爾遜，這很重要——看起來今年下半年會有更多的 FORCE 節約。並且只知道不僅對金佰利，而且對許多業內同行來說，在這種環境下提高生產力一直非常困難，無論是要求供應商提供更好的價格，還是進入工廠並努力投入放置新的成本節約、機製或項目。所以坦率地說，我很好奇，對這種加速有一定程度的信心。您期望改變什麼，以使您在下半年看到更多的 FORCE 節省？

Sure, Lauren. So I'd start by reminding us that FORCE isn't necessarily a straight line. I mean, it tends to build throughout the year and that's kind of our historical trend. In particular, for H1 of this year, I mean, we continued to drive solid savings from our productivity initiatives on a gross basis. But these savings were somewhat offset by some of the cost headwinds that we've been facing, particularly in North America, as we've been investing heavily over the last couple of quarters to improve overall service levels, which we're pretty pleased that we're getting back to more normal levels as we exited Q2.

當然，勞倫。所以我首先要提醒我們 FORCE 不一定是一條直線。我的意思是，它往往會在全年建立，這是我們的歷史趨勢。特別是，對於今年上半年，我的意思是，我們繼續從我們的生產力計劃中節省大量資金。但是這些節省在一定程度上被我們一直面臨的一些成本逆風所抵消，尤其是在北美，因為我們在過去幾個季度一直在大力投資以提高整體服務水平，我們對此感到非常高興隨著我們退出第二季度，我們正在恢復到更正常的水平。

So having said that, as we go into the second half, I'd say a couple of things. We're going to have some of these incremental expenses behind us or largely behind us. And then secondly, we're going to have the pipeline, which is pretty strong at this stage, come through. So overall, that gives us the confidence of seeing around a little over $200 million of delivery in FORCE as we go into the second half.

話雖如此，當我們進入下半場時，我想說幾件事。我們將有一些增量開支在我們身後或大部分在我們身後。其次，我們將擁有現階段非常強大的管道。總的來說，這讓我們有信心在進入下半年時看到大約 2 億美元的 FORCE 交付。

Our next question will come from Kevin Grundy with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Jefferies 的 Kevin Grundy。

First one for Nelson. Just kind of taking a step back, I would be interested to get your early impressions and perhaps maybe your 2 to 3 biggest priorities over the course of the year to ensure a smooth transition. Maria was, of course, very well thought of, but a fresh perspective can always bring to bear some new ideas and potentially some opportunities for shareholders. So I think your early observations would be helpful. And then I'd like to pivot to the cost outlook.

尼爾森的第一個。只是退後一步，我很想了解您的早期印象，也許是您在一年中的 2 到 3 個最重要的優先事項，以確保順利過渡。瑪麗亞當然是經過深思熟慮的，但全新的視角總能為股東帶來一些新的想法和潛在的一些機會。所以我認為你的早期觀察會有所幫助。然後我想轉向成本前景。

Sure. So Kevin, I mean, overall, a few things I would highlight. I mean, I'm pretty impressed by the team and the resilience of the team and the focus and the priorities and the strategic imperatives. I've been able to see that as I've been getting out there in the field and working through all the difficulties and challenges that we've been seeing. I think it's a very resilient organization. And there's very strong capability and muscle that's been built, which has allowed us to deliver the kind of results we're delivering as of the first half of the year in Q2.

當然。所以凱文，我的意思是，總的來說，我要強調一些事情。我的意思是，我對團隊和團隊的彈性以及重點、優先事項和戰略要求印象深刻。我已經能夠看到這一點，因為我一直在外地工作，並努力克服我們所看到的所有困難和挑戰。我認為這是一個非常有彈性的組織。並且已經建立了非常強大的能力和肌肉，這使我們能夠交付我們在第二季度上半年交付的那種結果。

Secondly, I mean, one of my key priorities working with the team is to continue to push forward on the margin recovery. I mean, this is something that is critical for us and we're very focused on it from all angles. And we're going to do it in a smart way. We will continue to invest in the business. That is something that we've done in the first half of the year, and we've got to keep doing that because that's what will allow us to drive forward a sustainable, profitable growth as we progress.

其次，我的意思是，我與團隊合作的主要優先事項之一是繼續推動利潤率恢復。我的意思是，這對我們來說至關重要，我們從各個角度都非常關注它。我們將以一種聰明的方式來做這件事。我們將繼續投資該業務。這是我們在今年上半年所做的事情，我們必須繼續這樣做，因為這將使我們能夠隨著我們的進步推動可持續的、盈利的增長。

So overall, I'd say those are my key priorities at this moment. In terms of capital allocation and other elements, I don't have a different opinion versus where we're at today. I believe those are the right buckets where I stand today. And as we progress over the plans and what we've got for the future years, I mean, I'll -- we will come back with what we've got.

所以總的來說，我想說這些是我目前的主要優先事項。在資本配置和其他方面，我與我們今天的情況沒有不同的看法。我相信這些是我今天所站的正確水桶。隨著我們在計劃和未來幾年所擁有的方面取得進展，我的意思是，我會 - 我們將帶著我們所擁有的回來。

Got it. The quick follow-up is maybe just sort of go through your commodity exposures around energy, packaging, et cetera. Walk through your updated assumptions for us. What's driving the worst outlook there from a commodity perspective? And then relatedly to that, just your view on level of conservatism in the guidance. I think it's obviously been an extraordinary environment, so it's not necessarily fatigue as much as sort of an observation just in terms of maybe a greater level of conservatism to offset what continues to be a volatile environment. So kind of 2 parts there on the guidance. I'll pass it on after that.

知道了。快速跟進可能只是瀏覽您在能源、包裝等方面的商品風險。瀏覽您為我們更新的假設。從商品的角度來看，是什麼推動了最糟糕的前景？然後與此相關，只是您對指南中保守主義水平的看法。我認為這顯然是一個非同尋常的環境，所以它不一定像觀察一樣疲勞，只是就可能更高水平的保守主義來抵消繼續動蕩的環境而言。指導上有兩個部分。之後我會傳下去的。

Sure. So first, I mean, to cover the -- to give you a walk-through of the commodity update that we've got right now. And so as we pointed out in the remarks, I mean, we are calling now for the year a range of $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion. At the midpoint, it's $1.5 billion. This is an increase of $300 million.

當然。所以首先，我的意思是，介紹- 讓您了解我們現在擁有的商品更新。正如我們在評論中指出的那樣，我的意思是，我們現在要求的年度範圍為 14 億至 16 億美元。在中點，它是 15 億美元。這增加了 3 億美元。

And what we're seeing is really first on fiber. Fiber, we're hitting all-time highs in [Yook]. As we exited June, we saw sequential growth in prices for Yook through the month of June, hit historical high in June. We're also seeing, in other pulp grades, elevated prices, and that's one of the key drivers behind what we're calling. Secondly, it's energy. If we think about energy and natural gas, in particular, we've seen in Europe a 10x versus a year ago in prices. And in our Western European U.K. business, which has a sizable tissue business, it is energy-intensive and that's bearing in kind of what we're projecting at this stage.

我們所看到的實際上是第一次使用光纖。 Fiber，我們在 [Yook] 中創下歷史新高。當我們退出 6 月份時，我們看到 Yook 的價格在整個 6 月份連續上漲，在 6 月份創下歷史新高。我們還看到，在其他紙漿等級中，價格上漲，這是我們所稱的主要驅動因素之一。其次，是能量。如果我們特別考慮能源和天然氣，我們看到歐洲的價格是一年前的 10 倍。在我們的西歐英國業務中，該業務擁有相當規模的衛生紙業務，它是能源密集型的，這與我們現階段的計劃有關。

And then the other one is distribution costs. Overall, we're seeing distribution costs also increase. And I'd say this is more largely on the international side of the house, and this is reflecting and bearing on what we're showing in terms of our expectations at the midpoint of our guidance for costs.

另一個是分銷成本。總體而言，我們看到分銷成本也在增加。而且我想說這在很大程度上是在房子的國際方面，這反映並影響了我們在成本指導中點的預期方面所展示的內容。

A green shoot or a benefit we're beginning to see is in resins. I mean, that's probably the only big element within our cost bucket that we're beginning to see prices to come down on a sequential basis. And again, this is the one I'd highlight as I look at it. Overall, I'd like to -- I think it's also important to highlight that in a 2-year stack, we're staring at a $3 billion overall incremental cost, which is north of 1,500 basis points of margin that we're taking a hit as a business in 24 months. So it's quite sizable that we're managing through.

我們開始看到的綠芽或好處是樹脂。我的意思是，這可能是我們成本桶中唯一一個我們開始看到價格連續下降的重要因素。再一次，這是我在看它時要強調的。總體而言，我想強調一下，在 2 年的堆棧中，我們正盯著 30 億美元的整體增量成本，這是我們正在採取的 1,500 個基點的保證金以北在 24 個月內大獲成功。所以我們正在管理的規模相當大。

And then that takes me to your point around conservatism on the guidance. The first thing is we -- overall, in the bottom line and the EPS, we've made our best estimate based on what we're seeing today and what's playing out in the market. We've also taken into account all of the cost-saving initiatives, as I just talked about before, FORCE, and that's embedded in what we have here. And then lastly, it's also our pricing. We were very encouraged by how our pricing came through. Our teams did pretty well in terms of executing the pricing in the second quarter, which sequentially was much better than what we had in the first quarter. And that's the other element that would bear in how we would see the second half playing out.

然後這將我帶到你關於指導保守主義的觀點。首先是我們 - 總的來說，在底線和每股收益方面，我們已經根據我們今天所看到的和市場上的情況做出了最好的估計。我們還考慮了所有節省成本的舉措，正如我之前所說的，FORCE，這就是我們所擁有的。最後，這也是我們的定價。我們對定價的方式感到非常鼓舞。我們的團隊在第二季度的定價執行方面做得很好，這比第一季度要好得多。這是我們如何看待下半場比賽的另一個因素。

I'll just pipe in there, Kevin. I'd say on the guide -- and it's tougher since Nelson's still brand new, he doesn't have a calibration of how we add or at what kind of relative. But I'd probably say for the rest of our outlook, we feel confident that we're in that range. It is at the lower end of the range at this point. We feel that it's more likely to be in the lower end of the range.

凱文，我會在那裡插管。我會在指南上說——因為尼爾森還是全新的，所以更難，他沒有校准我們如何添加或在什麼樣的親戚。但我可能會說，對於我們未來的展望，我們有信心處於這個範圍內。此時它處於範圍的下限。我們認為它更有可能處於該範圍的低端。

I would say there's 2 probably big puts and takes, though. On the one end, there's one wildcard, which is additional input cost volatility. And so we're calling it based on what the input cost that Nelson just kind of talked about, right? So that's one big thing. And so that could shift up or down, right? And then the other wildcard probably is the volume side. And again, I think we have said that the volumes have come in slightly better than our original expectation, given all the pricing that we've taken.

不過，我會說可能有 2 個大的看跌期權。一方面，有一個通配符，即額外的投入成本波動。所以我們根據尼爾森剛才談到的投入成本來稱呼它，對吧？所以這是一件大事。所以它可以上下移動，對吧？然後另一個通配符可能是音量方面。再一次，我認為我們已經說過，考慮到我們採取的所有定價，銷量比我們最初的預期略好。

We could do a touch better in the second half but that remains to be seen. There's been a lot going on in our volumes with cycling a winter storm in North America, COVID in and out, lockdown and all that. And so it's a little bit tough to call. But again, I'd say we feel like we're calling it down the middle here and we feel confident we're in the range.

下半場我們可以做得更好，但這還有待觀察。我們的書卷中發生了很多事情，包括在北美騎自行車度過冬季風暴、COVID 進出、封鎖等等。所以打電話有點困難。但再說一次，我想說我們覺得我們在這裡把它放在中間，我們有信心我們在這個範圍內。

Our next question will come from Chris Carey with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的下一個問題將來自富國銀行證券公司的 Chris Carey。

Nelson, you commented on margins being a key focus of yours going forward. In KCP, we saw some sequential deterioration there, again despite the top line. I was wondering if you can give some insights on to what you think is needed based on your early analysis of the business there to return to historically what is more of a mid- to high teens margins or whether that target even looks realistic anymore.

尼爾森，你評論說利潤是你未來的重點。在 KCP，我們看到了一些連續的惡化，儘管有頂線。我想知道您是否可以根據您對那裡業務的早期分析，對您認為需要什麼提供一些見解，以恢復到歷史上更多的中高利潤率，或者該目標是否看起來不再現實。

Sure, Chris. And yes, absolutely, our targets and the way I've been looking at it are mid, long-term target margins for KCP remains unchanged at the high teens. I mean, we are aiming for that and we will get back. The plans are in place. I think it's important to recall that our KCP business has been the most impacted by COVID, I mean, including the reduced travel, the shift to remote hybrid work, and that's been bearing on the business.

當然，克里斯。是的，絕對是，我們的目標和我一直在看待它的方式是 KCP 的中長期目標利潤率在十幾歲時保持不變。我的意思是，我們的目標是，我們會回來的。計劃已經到位。我認為重要的是要記住，我們的 KCP 業務受 COVID 影響最大，我的意思是，包括旅行減少、向遠程混合工作的轉變，這對業務產生了影響。

The business has continued to recover with high single-digit top line growth, and washroom sales are already over 90% of pre-pandemic levels. In fact, in North America, it's even at the very high end. We're almost there in full-time -- full recovery. However, margins, as you said, I mean, did slide for Q2 a bit. But this was really a combination of 2 factors: one, we had the acceleration in commodities. Lots have been impacting tissue, which hit us in Q2. And then it's the timing of the pricing. I mean, we enacted pricing in Europe. North America went into effect in May, late May.

該業務以高個位數的收入增長繼續復甦，洗手間銷售額已超過大流行前水平的 90%。事實上，在北美，它甚至處於非常高端。我們幾乎全時——完全康復。但是，正如您所說，我的意思是，第二季度的利潤率確實有所下滑。但這實際上是兩個因素的結合：第一，我們的商品加速。許多人一直在影響組織，這在第二季度襲擊了我們。然後是定價的時機。我的意思是，我們在歐洲制定了定價。北美於 5 月下旬生效。

And I think it's important to highlight that on a sequential basis within the quarter, we actually saw an acceleration in gross margins in June. So this is really pointing to as the pricing is landing, we're seeing that the margins are recovering already in the latter part of the quarter, and we expect this to continue as we head into Q3 and Q4.

我認為重要的是要強調，在本季度的連續基礎上，我們實際上看到了 6 月份毛利率的加速。因此，這確實表明隨著定價的下降，我們看到利潤率已經在本季度後期恢復，我們預計隨著我們進入第三季度和第四季度，這種情況將繼續下去。

Also, as we go into the second half of the year and based on our current assumptions and what we know, we do expect the impact from commodities to tone down in the second half of the year versus what we saw in the first half of the year, even with the incremental costs that we've put in place.

此外，隨著我們進入下半年，根據我們目前的假設和我們所知道的，我們確實預計大宗商品的影響將在下半年減弱，而不是我們在上半年看到的情況。年，即使我們已經實施了增量成本。

The other bit is also important and I talked about it in productivity. The team has been focused very much in terms of rightsizing, managing the business and doing it the right way. There is a strong pipeline of productivity that should be coming through. And again, I remain encouraged by what the team is doing and our commitment to getting the business back to the high teens and where it's been in the past.

另一點也很重要，我在生產力方面談到了它。該團隊一直非常關注調整規模、管理業務和以正確的方式開展業務。應該有一條強大的生產力管道。再一次，我仍然對團隊正在做的事情以及我們致力於讓業務重回青少年時期以及過去的狀況感到鼓舞。

Yes. I'll just tag on there, Chris. KCP is a great business for us, and I believe it remains a great growth opportunity for us overall. We are cycling demand volatility in the near term. But that professional market globally is big, it's fragmented and it's got a lot of underserved segments.

是的。克里斯，我會在那裡標記。 KCP 對我們來說是一項偉大的業務，我相信這對我們整體來說仍然是一個巨大的增長機會。我們在短期內循環需求波動。但是全球的專業市場很大，很分散，而且有很多服務不足的細分市場。

There's been a lot of noise in our demand because we've got a couple of things going on. Washroom is recovering. But because of COVID spikes and everything else, we're lapping big increases in PPE and gloves in the year-ago period and also our other parts of our safety business and wipers, right? So there's a lot of things going on. But overall, we still think there's a great growth opportunity.

我們的需求有很多噪音，因為我們有幾件事正在進行。洗手間正在恢復。但由於新冠疫情和其他一切因素，我們在去年同期大幅增加了個人防護裝備和手套，以及我們安全業務和雨刷的其他部分，對吧？所以發生了很多事情。但總體而言，我們仍然認為存在巨大的增長機會。

I do think, if you look at offices, where we are a little -- have a bit more exposure, that business is probably not going to come all the way back to where it is. I don't think everybody is going back to work full-time 100% in office. And so that's going to change. But our attitude is, well, that's the base and we got to grow from there. And there's still a lot of opportunities for us to innovate and to serve our end users in a better way.

我確實認為，如果你看一下我們所在的辦公室——有更多的曝光率，那麼該業務可能不會一直回到原來的位置。我不認為每個人都會 100% 回到辦公室全職工作。所以這將會改變。但我們的態度是，嗯，這是基礎，我們必須從那裡成長。我們仍然有很多機會進行創新並以更好的方式為最終用戶服務。

That's very helpful. I just have a couple of questions on Europe and I'll jump back in. Just in the personal care business, it's the first quarter in a while, maybe 5 years, excluding the Texas storms, where volumes have gone negative. But it looks to be happening all almost entirely in Eastern Europe within the overall global personal care business. Can you just comment on what's going on in that market specifically and whether you think that headwind could persist here?

這很有幫助。我有幾個關於歐洲的問題，我會重新討論。就個人護理業務而言，這是一段時間內的第一季度，可能是 5 年，不包括德克薩斯風暴，那裡的銷量已經變成負數。但在整個全球個人護理業務中，它似乎幾乎全部發生在東歐。您能否具體評論一下該市場的情況，以及您認為逆風是否會持續存在？

And then just secondly, on the cost side in Western Europe, Nelson mentioned tissue businesses being very energy-intensive. Comment well taken. Just with natural gas availability looking like it could get even worse, given some news this week, can you maybe just talk about how you're framing or preparing for potential risk of force majeure because of lack of energy or paying any surcharges to procure low availability of natural gas? Just these types of situations seem to be coming ahead, so just curious your thoughts there.

其次，在西歐的成本方面，尼爾森提到衛生紙業務非常耗能。評論很好。鑑於本週的一些消息，天然氣供應看起來可能會變得更糟，您是否可以談談您是如何構建或準備因缺乏能源或支付任何附加費以採購低價而導致的潛在不可抗力風險的？天然氣的可用性？只是這些類型的情況似乎即將到來，所以只是好奇你的想法。

Chris, maybe I'll start on the personal care and then maybe Nelson can cover a little bit on the energy and the supply side. But overall, D&E, again, very strong price execution in the quarter, 8% organic. I think we are paying a little bit closer attention to the volumes because they are a little softer in our market shares across D&E. The majority or the bulk of the volume impact in D&E was Eastern Europe. And really, Chris, it's as straightforward as it's the effects of the war and the impact on Russia and the impact on Ukraine.

克里斯，也許我會從個人護理開始，然後尼爾森可能會在能源和供應方面做一些事情。但總體而言，D&E 在本季度再次表現出非常強勁的價格執行力，有機率為 8%。我認為我們正在更密切地關註銷量，因為它們在我們整個 D&E 的市場份額中略顯疲軟。 D&E 的大部分或大部分數量影響是東歐。真的，克里斯，這就像戰爭的影響、對俄羅斯的影響以及對烏克蘭的影響一樣簡單。

And so we are still operating well under those circumstances. But as you can imagine, the circumstances are pretty challenging. We remain operational across the region, including in Ukraine and building our business back in Ukraine. Organic is down low double digits as we curtailed operations in Russia. And we're actively building the business back in Ukraine, but we are actively and proactively compliant with all the sanction activity. And that obviously takes -- it has a bit of a volume impact on the business. So I don't know if that, Chris, addresses kind of what you're asking on the volume side.

因此，在這種情況下，我們仍然運作良好。但正如你可以想像的那樣，情況非常具有挑戰性。我們繼續在整個地區運營，包括在烏克蘭和在烏克蘭建立我們的業務。由於我們縮減了在俄羅斯的業務，有機業務下降了兩位數。我們正在積極地在烏克蘭建立業務，但我們積極主動地遵守所有製裁活動。這顯然需要 - 它對業務有一點影響。所以我不知道克里斯，這是否能解決你在音量方面的問題。

Yes, that was very helpful.

是的，這很有幫助。

Right. And then to address the energy question, Chris, I mean, a couple of things. I mean, one, as we all know, the energy situation in Europe is pretty dynamic. And yes, the all-natural gas situation is something we're staying on top and developing contingency plans as we speak, and the team is really working thoroughly through it. We don't have details to share today but our teams are really on it and it is a priority for us. I will highlight, I mean, in Germany, we only have one factory. So again, it's not like we have a concentrated risk just in one of the key markets where this could be one of the biggest challenges at this point.

正確的。然後為了解決能源問題，克里斯，我的意思是，有幾件事。我的意思是，眾所周知，歐洲的能源形勢非常活躍。是的，全天然氣形勢是我們保持領先地位並在我們發言時制定應急計劃的事情，團隊確實在徹底解決它。我們今天沒有要分享的細節，但我們的團隊確實在努力，這對我們來說是一個優先事項。我要強調，我的意思是，在德國，我們只有一家工廠。再說一次，我們並不是只在一個關鍵市場中存在集中風險，這可能是目前最大的挑戰之一。

Yes. The thing I'll tack on there though, Chris, in Western Europe, again, the operating conditions remain very challenging and volatile. I would say that our pricing and the volume and the organic was up low double digits, with price up double digits and volume up high single digits. So again, that's a developed market. I think the consumer is proving to be resilient. Our teams are doing a terrific job executing in what you're -- I'm sure you're familiar with being a very challenging environment. So again, we're paying close attention and the team is doing a very good job running in a tough environment.

是的。不過，克里斯，在西歐，我要強調的是，運營條件仍然非常具有挑戰性和波動性。我想說的是，我們的定價、銷量和有機價格上漲了兩位數，價格上漲了兩位數，成交量上漲了個位數。再說一次，這是一個發達的市場。我認為消費者被證明是有彈性的。我們的團隊在執行你的工作時做得非常出色——我相信你對一個非常具有挑戰性的環境很熟悉。因此，我們再次密切關注，團隊在艱難的環境中表現非常出色。

Our next question will come from Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的史蒂夫鮑爾斯。

Sorry. Thanks, I was on mute there. So I guess, just maybe you could build a little bit on the costs just to clean it up a little bit. So given where we are in the year, natural timing lags in the supply chain, your hedge positions, I guess my inclination is to say that your line of sight to the $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion in higher cost is now fairly well locked in. Is that the case? Or is it more that you still see realistic risk that the $1.4 billion, $1.6 billion could still shift around if we saw further cost volatility? And if so, is it the energy bucket that's the biggest swing factor? Or is it equal across energy and pulp and distribution?

對不起。謝謝，我在那裡靜音。所以我想，也許你可以在成本上增加一點，只是為了清理一下。因此，鑑於我們在這一年所處的位置，供應鏈中的自然時間滯後，您的對沖頭寸，我想我的傾向是說，您對 14 億至 16 億美元更高成本的視線現在已經很好地鎖定了。是這樣嗎？或者，如果我們看到進一步的成本波動，您是否仍然看到 14 億美元、16 億美元仍可能轉移的現實風險？如果是這樣，是能量桶是最大的搖擺因素嗎？還是在能源、紙漿和分配方面是平等的？

Yes, I might say locked-in is an interesting term because some of our biggest commodities, there's not a traded market for. Yes. That's the issue.

是的，我可能會說鎖定是一個有趣的術語，因為我們的一些最大商品沒有交易市場。是的。這就是問題所在。

Right. So yes, so the thing there is there's not -- I mean, some of our key commodities are not as liquid as we'd have in the CME. So the reality is not all of this is locked in today. I think one of the important things to highlight is right now, based on where we're at and at the $1.5 billion midpoint, our forecast would call for $875 million already hit us in the first half and then $625 million would hit us in the second half based on what we know today, Steve.

正確的。所以是的，所以沒有 - 我的意思是，我們的一些主要商品不像我們在 CME 中那樣具有流動性。所以現實並不是所有這些都被鎖定在今天。我認為現在要強調的重要事情之一是，根據我們所處的位置和 15 億美元的中點，我們的預測是上半年已經達到了 8.75 億美元，然後在 6.25 億美元將打擊我們。下半場根據我們今天所知道的，史蒂夫。

Again, there's moving pieces. I mean, we do expect fiber to remain elevated based on what's out there and what's public. You can see it in the indices. And we would expect some easing as we go into the back half, Q4 of the year on the fiber side. That's what we're projecting at this moment. But again, it's a moving situation overall.

再次，有移動的部分。我的意思是，我們確實預計纖維會根據現有情況和公開情況保持較高水平。您可以在索引中看到它。當我們進入光纖方面的後半部分，即今年第四季度時，我們預計會出現一些放鬆。這就是我們目前的計劃。但是，總體而言，這是一個不斷變化的情況。

Okay, okay. And so just -- so as you -- well, I guess that means that as your contract -- my impression is your contract for the next year on things like pulp and fiber, disproportionately, there's a contracting season. So your -- at this point, you're hoping for expecting some relief into that contracting season because I'm assuming that current prices are well above where you contracted in '21.

好吧好吧。所以只是 - 就像你一樣 - 嗯，我想這意味著作為你的合同 - 我的印像是你在紙漿和纖維等方面的明年合同，不成比例地，有一個合同季節。所以你 - 在這一點上，你希望在那個合同季節有所緩解，因為我假設目前的價格遠高於你在 21 年的合同價格。

Yes, Stephen, maybe I'll jump in here. On the -- we don't -- we do -- we have shared before that we have negotiated material prices. We don't reveal the specifics or disclose the specifics of those contracts. I think what's fair to say or reasonable to assume in the cost outlook, building on what Nelson said, is that again, based on our current assumptions, the fiber prices, we expect to remain elevated in Q3 before easing somewhat in the later part of Q4. I think energy and distribution, particularly international distribution, are the 2 that we're seeing some of the more volatility and we'll look through the balance of the year. And as Nelson said...

是的，斯蒂芬，也許我會跳到這裡。關於 - 我們不 - 我們這樣做 - 我們之前已經分享了我們已經協商過的材料價格。我們不會透露細節或披露這些合同的細節。我認為，在 Nelson 所說的基礎上，在成本前景中可以公平地說或可以合理假設的是，再次，基於我們目前的假設，纖維價格在第三季度保持高位，然後在後期有所回落。 Q4。我認為能源和分銷，尤其是國際分銷，是我們看到的波動性更大的兩個，我們將審視今年的餘額。正如納爾遜所說...

Yes, that's helpful color. If I can just pivot on a different topic, we've talked a decent amount already at the start about consumers having or being expected to have a sharper focus on value going forward. And I guess maybe you talked about how that manifests in your categories and how you're pivoting to meet the consumer intersection of enhanced value.

是的，這是有用的顏色。如果我可以轉向一個不同的主題，那麼我們在開始時就已經談到了相當多的消費者已經或被期望更加關注未來的價值。我想也許你談到了這在你的類別中是如何體現的，以及你是如何轉向滿足增強價值的消費者交叉點的。

I guess, just to get underneath that a bit more, do you see that more in consumer tissue versus personal care? And as you're moving in that direction and theoretically, competitors are moving in that direction, how do you balance the desire to kind of go where the puck's going versus pushing so hard on the value side of things that you actually entice trade-down and kind of create a problem that you might not have had if you and the whole industry had moved in that direction? Just how you think about that balance of going where the consumer is going but not necessarily enticing them to go there.

我想，只是為了更深入地了解這一點，您是否在消費紙巾與個人護理品中看到了更多？當你朝著那個方向前進時，理論上，競爭對手也在朝著那個方向前進，你如何平衡想要去冰球去向的願望與在價值方面如此努力地推動你實際上誘使交易下降的事情如果你和整個行業朝著這個方向發展，你可能不會遇到這種問題？只是你如何看待消費者要去的地方但不一定吸引他們去那裡的平衡。

Right. Great push, Steve. I mean, that's exactly the issue. And I think if you -- and when you listen to the earnings call from some of our big customers, I mean, I think they'll say the same thing, which is there is a segment of consumers, let's say, in a developed market like the U.S. that is trading down, but it's not all consumers. There may be a few more consumers that are more price-sensitive in the developing market where there is not the government subsidy in a tough time like COVID in, let's say, in Brazil as much as there was in the U.S.

正確的。偉大的推動，史蒂夫。我的意思是，這正是問題所在。我認為，如果你——當你聽到我們一些大客戶的財報電話會議時，我的意思是，我認為他們會說同樣的話，那就是有一部分消費者，比如說，在發達的像美國這樣的市場正在下跌，但並不是所有的消費者。在發展中市場中，可能會有更多的消費者對價格更加敏感，因為在像 COVID 這樣的艱難時期沒有政府補貼，比如說，巴西和美國一樣多。

So consumer is a little more affected there. But I think that's right. We do see it across personal care and tissue. Typically in the U.S., in a market like the U.S., what you'll see is maybe the trade-down means maybe not trading the brand out but moving to a smaller count pack, right, to make it more affordable in the short term. And so -- and Lauren mentioned it earlier.

所以消費者在那裡受到的影響更大。但我認為這是對的。我們確實在個人護理和紙巾中看到了這一點。通常在美國，在像美國這樣的市場中，您會看到可能是折價意味著可能不會將品牌換掉，而是轉向更小的數量包裝，對，以使其在短期內更實惠。所以——勞倫之前提到過。

So there's a host of moves that we make in partnership with our customers to kind of shift in merchandise what's appropriate for the consumer. But again, I think we also want to be very cognizant that we don't want to move the whole market that way. And there are plenty of consumers that, I'd say, despite some of the impact of the economy, the affordability in our categories remains strong. And again, they're still looking to trade up.

因此，我們與客戶合作採取了許多舉措，以改變適合消費者的商品。但同樣，我認為我們也希望非常清楚我們不想以這種方式推動整個市場。有很多消費者，我想說，儘管受到經濟的一些影響，但我們類別的負擔能力仍然很強。再一次，他們仍在尋求交易。

And we're seeing the growth. It's kind of the old barbell description. We're seeing great growth on the high end as well. And we're continuing to innovate and promote our brands and advertise our brands on the high end. And that's what's rough in driving China. I'd say, again, super strong performance on mix, double-digit organic growth in the quarter against a category that's down multiple share point growth on diapers. And that's all driven by value-added consumer benefits. We've really upgraded our line over the last couple of years and feel great about the technology that we have in all of our key markets.

我們看到了增長。這是一種古老的槓鈴描述。我們也看到了高端市場的巨大增長。我們將繼續創新和推廣我們的品牌，並在高端宣傳我們的品牌。這就是推動中國的艱難之處。我想說的是，本季度的混合表現非常強勁，兩位數的有機增長與尿布的多個份額增長下降的類別相比。而這一切都是由增值的消費者利益驅動的。在過去的幾年裡，我們確實升級了我們的產品線，並且對我們在所有關鍵市場所擁有的技術感到非常滿意。

And I think that's reflected in the momentum that we're seeing, let's say, in diapers when you look at all developed markets. I mean, we have multi-point share gains in our biggest markets. U.S. was up -- Huggies was up 3 points in the U.S. in the quarter. China was up almost 2 points. South Korea, for us, which is our second largest market, was up 4 share points in the quarter.

我認為這反映在我們看到的勢頭上，比如說，當你查看所有發達市場時，尿布的發展勢頭。我的意思是，我們在最大的市場中獲得了多點的份額增長。美國上升了——Huggies 在本季度在美國上升了 3 分。中國上升了近2個百分點。對我們來說，韓國是我們的第二大市場，在本季度上漲了 4 個百分點。

So again, I think we're skating -- as you say, skating to where the puck is. We want to be able to meet the consumer where they need us to be. And some are still looking for better quality and premiumization, and others are looking for us to extend them a better value and we're doing both.

再說一次，我認為我們正在滑冰——正如你所說，滑到冰球所在的地方。我們希望能夠滿足消費者的需求。有些人仍在尋找更好的質量和高端化，而另一些人則在尋找我們為它們提供更好的價值，我們兩者都在做。

Our next question will come from Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的 Jason English。

Congrats on that market share momentum that you just referenced in personal care.

恭喜您剛剛在個人護理中提到的市場份額勢頭。

Jason, I did want to note though, it's a little more slug -- I mean, we're under our goal because our goal is to be growing share in more than half of our markets. And the last couple of years, we're up in 2/3 of our markets. And so we're a little bit under half, right, just a couple of points under 50%. And so we're watching it closely. Well, we're up in developed. As I mentioned, we're seeing some pricing lagging across D&E, and so our price gaps have widened a little bit. And so we're keeping a close attention to that.

傑森，我確實想指出，它有點蛞蝓——我的意思是，我們在我們的目標之下，因為我們的目標是在我們一半以上的市場中增加份額。在過去的幾年裡，我們在 2/3 的市場中佔有一席之地。所以我們略低於一半，對，僅低於 50% 的幾個點。所以我們正在密切關注它。好吧，我們已經發展起來了。正如我所提到的，我們看到 D&E 的一些定價滯後，因此我們的價格差距有所擴大。因此，我們正在密切關注這一點。

I appreciate that flag. And mostly -- so you're actually net lagging a little bit on that side of the business. It certainly seems like you're lagging on the Pro business, too, which I want to come back to. I know you referenced some choppiness in terms of like COVID comps. But even comparing to 2019, I think your volume is down now in the 20s versus high teens before. So we're kind of falling away and eroding versus 2019. Can you -- I appreciate that offices are a component, but it seems like office occupancy sequentially has gotten better, not worse. Why is your volume sequentially getting worse? What's -- can you help us understand what's happening within that business?

我很欣賞那面旗幟。而且大多數情況下 - 所以你實際上在業務的那一邊有點落後。看來您似乎也落後於 Pro 業務，我想回到這一點。我知道您在 COVID 組合方面提到了一些不穩定因素。但即使與 2019 年相比，我認為你的銷量現在已經下降到 20 多歲，而之前的十幾歲。因此，與 2019 年相比，我們有點退步和侵蝕。你能 - 我很欣賞辦公室是一個組成部分，但似乎辦公室的入住率依次變得更好，而不是更糟。為什麼您的音量依次變差？什麼 - 你能幫助我們了解該業務中正在發生的事情嗎？

Yes. A couple of things going on. One, I would say professional demand overall is improving. And so for the quarter, and I don't know if you saw the facts, but the organic was up high single digits overall. North America was up 8% and our D&E was up 6%. The washroom is recovering. I would say, though, there's a big component of pricing in that. So washroom sales were up 30% in the quarter.

是的。有幾件事正在發生。一，我會說整體的專業需求正在改善。所以對於本季度，我不知道你是否看到了事實，但有機整體上升了個位數。北美上漲 8%，我們的 D&E 上漲 6%。洗手間正在恢復。不過，我想說的是，其中有很大一部分定價。因此，本季度洗手間銷售額增長了 30%。

And if you add on a dollar basis at 98% of pre-pandemic level, but I would say volumetric, it's still lagging, right? And because we have significant pricing in the last couple of years in Professional, so it reflects significant pricing but the volume is still soft. And again, I think -- as I would say, I don't think all that office demand is coming back in a minute. But that said, that's where our mix has been and we've got to grow from there.

如果你以大流行前水平的 98% 以美元為基礎，但我會說體積，它仍然滯後，對吧？而且因為我們在過去幾年中對專業版定價很高，所以它反映了很高的定價，但銷量仍然疲軟。再說一次，我認為 - 正如我會說的那樣，我認為所有辦公室需求不會在一分鐘內恢復。但話雖如此，這就是我們的組合，我們必須從那裡成長。

And so we have a great team. We have great innovation. We have strong momentum and our share is up across the washroom business. We have an ICON dispenser which is a home run with end users. We have an improved towel offering. And so we're seeing strong momentum on the business. But I think you're right. I think we've got to build our business back.

所以我們有一個很棒的團隊。我們有很大的創新。我們有強勁的勢頭，我們在洗手間業務中的份額正在上升。我們有一個 ICON 分配器，它是最終用戶的本壘打。我們提供改進的毛巾。因此，我們看到了業務的強勁勢頭。但我認為你是對的。我認為我們必須重建我們的業務。

The other thing that's amplifying maybe the numbers that you're looking at, Jason, is we are cycling strong pandemic-related volume that was in wipers and PPE. I mean -- and gloves was a very significant seller for us in 2020 and 2021, and that's gone the other way this year. And so we have other effects going on as well.

傑森，另一件可能放大你正在查看的數字的事情是，我們正在循環使用雨刮器和 PPE 中與流行病相關的強勁銷量。我的意思是——手套在 2020 年和 2021 年對我們來說是一個非常重要的賣家，而今年情況正好相反。所以我們也有其他的影響。

For sure, for sure, which is why I'm trying just to like look at 2019 and look at the volume of that because I appreciate the noise. And back to your comment on some areas where you've got some price gaps that you're trying to manage. Are we at a point where you would expect to start to maybe give some of the pricing back to get a little more promotional juice into the market to try to manage those price gaps? Or is it not meaningful enough to have to start to do some those activities?

可以肯定，可以肯定，這就是為什麼我只是想看看 2019 年並看看它的音量，因為我欣賞噪音。回到你對一些你試圖管理的價格差距的評論。我們是否正處於您期望開始返還一些定價以使市場獲得更多促銷活動以嘗試管理這些價格差距的地步？還是必須開始做一些這些活動還不夠有意義？

I wouldn't say that yet. I mean, again, overall, the way I'll say it, Jason, is I'm prioritizing and Nelson is prioritizing margin recovery in the near term. And what I will tell the teams internally, the conversation is like, I'm not after renting hollow share, right? And so I don't really want to jerk our teams back and forth. We're trying to deliver balanced and sustainable growth for the long term. We have to get pricing to improve the margins and restore our margins. That's part one. We want to grow our shares over the long term sustainably over a long term. And so we're going to monitor that. But again, I'm not ready to shift back and forth quite yet.

我還不會這麼說。我的意思是，總體而言，傑森，我要說的方式是我正在優先考慮，而尼爾森正在優先考慮短期內的利潤率恢復。我會在內部告訴團隊，談話是這樣的，我不是在租用空心份額，對吧？所以我真的不想來回攪動我們的團隊。我們正在努力實現長期平衡和可持續的增長。我們必須定價以提高利潤率並恢復我們的利潤率。這是第一部分。我們希望長期可持續地增加我們的股票。因此，我們將對此進行監控。但同樣，我還沒有準備好來回移動。

Our next question will come from Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

So first one for Mike on pricing, and I know we obviously spend a lot of time on this call on this. But can you provide the magnitude of the new pricing announced in the U.S. last week? And if you embedded also more pricing in D&E where you took a pause now, given the elasticity is higher there, or even perhaps in Western Europe where the natural gas prices have been higher?

所以邁克的第一個關於定價的問題，我知道我們顯然在這個電話會議上花了很多時間。但是你能提供上週在美國宣布的新定價的幅度嗎？如果你現在暫停的 D&E 也增加了定價，因為那裡的彈性更高，或者甚至可能在天然氣價格更高的西歐？

And one for Nelson and Taryn, a clarification on the cost outlook. Are you using mostly the contracted prices that Taryn mentioned? And then what's floating is based on spot prices because I think she also spoke and Nelson spoke about potentially using some declines ahead on the forward curve. So just making sure that we have the assumptions that you're working with.

尼爾森和塔林的一個，對成本前景的澄清。您是否主要使用 Taryn 提到的合同價格？然後浮動是基於現貨價格，因為我認為她也說過，納爾遜也談到了可能在遠期曲線上使用一些下跌。所以只要確保我們有你正在使用的假設。

Okay. I'll start on the pricing, Andrea. Yes. If you track or go with the fact that we expect pricing to offset inflation over time, obviously, we'd like to get as much of that as soon as possible. And so if you looked over the course of the year, some of the pricing or inflation impacts hit outside of the U.S. earlier this year. And then more recently, there have been more impacts in the U.S.

好的。我將從定價開始，安德里亞。是的。如果您跟踪或接受我們預計定價會隨著時間的推移抵消通貨膨脹的事實，顯然，我們希望盡快獲得盡可能多的收益。因此，如果你回顧這一年，一些定價或通脹影響今年早些時候在美國以外地區受到影響。最近，美國受到了更多影響。

And so I'd say our pricing around the world has kind of followed where the inflation is around the world more directly. We did announce pricing in the U.S. last week. It was typical for what we've done in prior rounds, which is about a mid-single-digit increase. And again, we're still in the early stages of execution on that. And then we've announced similar actions at different times throughout the year in the rest of our markets.

所以我想說我們在世界各地的定價已經更直接地跟隨通貨膨脹在世界各地的情況。我們上週確實宣布了在美國的定價。這是我們在前幾輪中所做的典型情況，大約有中個位數的增長。同樣，我們仍處於執行的早期階段。然後，我們在全年的不同時間在其他市場宣布了類似的行動。

Of similar magnitude, I'm assuming, or a higher magnitude? I'm assuming that TAM was higher?

我假設是相似的量級，還是更高的量級？我假設TAM更高？

Yes. I would say Latin America, generally, overall, we're up double digits on price and so significantly higher. That reflects what's going on in the local market there.

是的。我會說拉丁美洲，總的來說，總體而言，我們的價格上漲了兩位數，因此明顯更高。這反映了當地市場的情況。

Okay. And then on the question around what prices are we reflecting in terms of our outlook. I mean, we based it off industry forecast, Andrea. I mean, that's the best view we've got for whatever we haven't covered. So that's there. I mean, and that's what we're seeing and what we will reflect in the forecast at this stage.

好的。然後是關於我們在展望方面反映的價格的問題。我的意思是，我們基於行業預測，Andrea。我的意思是，對於我們未涵蓋的內容，這是我們所擁有的最佳視角。所以就在那裡。我的意思是，這就是我們所看到的，以及我們將在現階段的預測中反映的內容。

And Nelson, how much does it [cover] now, would you say, to [track] these prices and contracted prices? Or how much is floating, how much is saved? What change do you see?

尼爾森，你會說，現在[跟踪]這些價格和合同價格有多少？或者浮動多少，節省多少？你看到了什麼變化？

Andrea, we don't disclose that bit so we don't get into disclosing that.

安德里亞，我們不透露那一點，所以我們不打算透露。

Right. And one last, if I can, on China. And I'm sorry if I missed that. How much was the drag in the quarter for D&E? And what is -- with the reopening, how much has been improving or it hasn't been that big? You continue to be able to service, given that you are more spread than the other players?

正確的。如果可以的話，最後一個是關於中國的。如果我錯過了，我很抱歉。 D&E 在本季度的拖累有多大？什麼是 - 隨著重新開放，有多少改善或沒有那麼大？鑑於你比其他球員更分散，你還能繼續發球嗎？

I'm not sure if I'm understanding the question correctly, but I'm saying -- I would say China was not a drag, it was a star in the quarter. It was up overall double digits in the quarter, and that was based on great diaper technology, great digital execution. Our share was up a couple of points. Organic was up in the mid-teens. And that's against the backdrop of a category that's been down high single digits over the last couple of years.

我不確定我是否正確理解了這個問題，但我想說——我想說中國不是拖累，而是本季度的明星。本季度整體增長了兩位數，這是基於出色的尿布技術和出色的數字執行。我們的份額上升了幾個百分點。有機在十幾歲時興起。這是在過去幾年中以高個位數下降的類別的背景下。

And that -- what's really driving it is robust balance of volume, mix and price. And so we feel really great about our China business. The team is doing an excellent job executing in a tough market. We were not impacted as much by the COVID lockdowns. I mean, everybody was impacted, but we have a very locally agile team that developed backup options for supply. Incidentally, our manufacturing operations were not in locations that were locked down, and so that may have been a little bit different for us than others. But again, we feel great about our China performance in the quarter.

而且——真正推動它的是數量、組合和價格的穩健平衡。所以我們對我們的中國業務感覺非常好。該團隊在艱難的市場中表現出色。 COVID鎖定對我們的影響不大。我的意思是，每個人都受到了影響，但我們有一個非常本地化的敏捷團隊，為供應開發了備用選項。順便說一句，我們的製造業務不在被封鎖的地方，所以這對我們來說可能與其他人有點不同。但同樣，我們對本季度在中國的表現感到非常滿意。

Yes. Congrats to the team.

是的。祝賀球隊。

Our next question will come from Peter Grom with UBS.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀的 Peter Grom。

So yes, I just kind of wanted to understand how we should think about the phasing of margin in the back half of the year or specifically how much of that remaining $625 million should hit in 3Q versus 4Q. And then I guess I just -- I appreciate the commentary around margin improvement. But previously, there seems to be some sort of expectation that we could potentially get to margin expansion at some point in the back half of the year. And I know it will take time to fully recover the margin. But based on where things stand today, when do you expect to see kind of margin expansion?

所以是的，我只是想了解我們應該如何考慮今年下半年的利潤率分階段，或者俱體來說，剩下的 6.25 億美元中應該在第三季度和第四季度達到多少。然後我想我只是 - 我很欣賞關於利潤率提高的評論。但以前，似乎有某種期望，我們可能會在今年下半年的某個時候實現利潤率擴張。而且我知道要完全恢復利潤需要時間。但根據今天的情況，您預計什麼時候會看到利潤率擴張？

Maybe I'll start, Peter. One, I would say, right now, we're prioritizing restoring our margins. I still remain confident that we'll be able to restore our margins and eventually expand our margins over time. I think I said that in January as well, but that was before we had additional -- I don't even know, $800 million of additional inflation in our forecast. And so again -- and I think that my confidence is still high that we'll be able to expand margins over time. But I guess I think the timetable shifts a little bit because there's a bigger nut to crack on that front.

也許我會開始，彼得。一，我想說，現在，我們正在優先考慮恢復我們的利潤。我仍然相信我們將能夠恢復我們的利潤並最終隨著時間的推移擴大我們的利潤。我想我在一月份也說過，但那是在我們有額外的 - 我什至不知道，我們的預測中有 8 億美元的額外通貨膨脹之前。再說一次 - 我認為我仍然很有信心，我們將能夠隨著時間的推移擴大利潤。但我想我認為時間表會發生一些變化，因為在這方面有一個更大的問題要解決。

Yes. And adding to that, I mean, Peter, a couple of things. One, we did expand gross margins in Q2 by 40 basis points. I mean, we realized significant pricing already versus Q1. So we saw that sequential improvement in Q2. And as we head into the back half, and we don't give guidance on quarterly margins, but we remain confident that based on what we know today, we will continue to expand margins.

是的。除此之外，我的意思是，彼得，還有幾件事。一，我們確實將第二季度的毛利率擴大了 40 個基點。我的意思是，與第一季度相比，我們已經實現了顯著的定價。所以我們看到了第二季度的連續改善。當我們進入後半部分時，我們不會就季度利潤率提供指導，但我們仍然相信，根據我們今天所知道的，我們將繼續擴大利潤率。

I mean, the plans are in place. As a reminder, we will continue to realize pricing. And based on what we've got today and what we saw in Q2, that will play out in the second half. Secondly, we've got our FORCE cost savings, which will accelerate in the back half versus what we saw in the first half, and that's the second component.

我的意思是，計劃已經到位。提醒一下，我們將繼續實現定價。根據我們今天的情況和我們在第二季度看到的情況，這將在下半年發揮作用。其次，我們節省了 FORCE 成本，與我們在上半年看到的相比，這將在後半段加速，這是第二個組成部分。

And then as you said, there is a more subdued year-over-year impact of the commodities in the back half. So we'll see, as you mentioned, $625 million, which I'm not going to give the breakdown between Q3 and Q4, but we'll see that in the back half versus the $875 million that we saw in the first half. So that gives us the confidence based on what we see, that we will see progressive margin improvement in the second half.

然後正如你所說，後半部分大宗商品的同比影響更為溫和。因此，正如您所提到的，我們將看到 6.25 億美元，我不會給出第三季度和第四季度之間的細分，但我們將在後半部分看到這一數字，而我們在上半年看到的為 8.75 億美元。因此，根據我們所看到的，這讓我們有信心，我們將在下半年看到利潤率的逐步提高。

Yes. And I feel like, Peter, that our team has made great progress on pricing and margin recovery, even if it may not show up on the operating number. But for the quarter, our pricing didn't offset inflation overall, and I think that was strong progress. Now the additional work for us is, yes, the inflation forecast got bigger for the balance of the year and so we've got to solve that as well.

是的。彼得，我覺得我們的團隊在定價和利潤率恢復方面取得了很大進展，即使它可能不會出現在運營數字上。但就本季度而言，我們的定價並沒有抵消整體通脹，我認為這是一個強勁的進步。現在對我們來說額外的工作是，是的，今年剩餘時間的通脹預測變得更大，所以我們也必須解決這個問題。

But overall, we feel good about our progress. We know there's more work to do. We're still confident we'll be able to expand our margins over time. And then in addition, we all know commodities are going to revert and they always do. And when we do that, we're not going to rely on reversion for our margin expansion. But when it does do, it will accelerate our time line.

但總的來說，我們對自己的進步感覺良好。我們知道還有更多工作要做。我們仍然有信心隨著時間的推移我們將能夠擴大我們的利潤。此外，我們都知道商品會恢復，而且它們總是會恢復。當我們這樣做時，我們不會依靠回歸來擴大利潤率。但當它確實發生時，它將加快我們的時間線。

That's super helpful. And then I guess maybe following up on that. I wanted to ask about how we should think about pricing and promotion, should we actually reach a deflationary environment. And I know historically, you've kind of held on to pricing as you don't typically price to peak inflation. But I just would be curious, just given the amount of pricing that's been taken over the past year, 1.5 years, and kind of layering in that retail pressure that Dara was alluding to earlier, I mean, what, if anything, do you think could be different this time around?

這非常有幫助。然後我想也許會跟進。我想問一下，如果我們真的進入通貨緊縮的環境，我們應該如何考慮定價和促銷。而且我知道從歷史上看，您一直堅持定價，因為您通常不會將價格定價到通脹峰值。但我只是好奇，考慮到過去一年、1.5 年的定價量，以及 Dara 早些時候提到的零售壓力的分層，我的意思是，如果有的話，你認為這次會有所不同嗎？

Well, I think, Peter, the big thing is pricing promotion, there's a lot of things going on. But one, you're using it to support the brands. And for me, typically, that would be to support great innovation that you're launching that I find tends to grow the category a little bit more effectively. And what we're really after is overall category growth, and that's what the retailers are after as well. And so for me, pricing and promotion is a component, not an end-all. It's a component of an overall strategy or growth strategy for the business.

好吧，我認為，彼得，最重要的是價格促銷，有很多事情正在發生。但是，您正在使用它來支持品牌。對我來說，通常情況下，這將是為了支持你正在推出的偉大創新，我發現這些創新往往會更有效地發展這一類別。我們真正追求的是整體品類增長，這也是零售商所追求的。所以對我來說，定價和促銷是一個組成部分，而不是最終目的。它是企業整體戰略或增長戰略的一個組成部分。

That said, there are fixed costs in this industry, and so volume does matter and so there's a tactical application of that. But if you look at the market, I think the input cost levels are so high. While promotion is, I would call it, at typical level, the depths are probably a little shallower than historically they've been. And I think that's reflective of the cost environment that the industry is working in. I don't know if that really addresses what you're asking.

也就是說，這個行業有固定成本，所以數量確實很重要，所以有一個戰術應用。但如果你看市場，我認為投入成本水平如此之高。雖然晉升是，我會稱之為，在典型水平上，深度可能比歷史上的淺一點。我認為這反映了該行業所處的成本環境。我不知道這是否真的解決了你的問題。

No, that's helpful. I appreciate it.

不，這很有幫助。我很感激。

There are no further questions at this time. I will turn the call back over for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。我會將電話轉回以結束髮言。

Great. Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today on the call, and this will conclude our call for our second quarter earnings release.

偉大的。謝謝你，接線員，謝謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議，這將結束我們對第二季度收益發布的電話會議。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's event. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的活動到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。