金百利克拉克 (KMB) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your patience in holding. We now have your presenters in conference. (Operator Instructions) It is now my pleasure to introduce today's first presenter, Taryn Miller.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的耐心等待。我們現在有您的演講者參加會議。 （操作員說明）現在我很高興介紹今天的第一位主持人 Taryn Miller。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Kimberly-Clark's Year-End Earnings Conference Call. On the call with me today are Mike Hsu, our Chairman and CEO; and Maria Henry, our CFO.

謝謝大家，大家早上好。歡迎來到金佰利的年終收益電話會議。今天與我通話的是我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Mike Hsu；和我們的首席財務官 Maria Henry。

Earlier this morning, we issued our earnings news release, and we also published prepared remarks from Mike and Maria that summarize our fourth quarter and full year 2021 results. Both documents are available in the Investors section of our website. We hope you find it valuable to have our prepared remarks ahead of this call.

今天早上早些時候，我們發布了收益新聞稿，我們還發布了 Mike 和 Maria 準備好的評論，總結了我們 2021 年第四季度和全年的業績。這兩份文件都可以在我們網站的“投資者”部分找到。我們希望您能在本次電話會議之前發表我們準備好的評論，這很有價值。

In just a moment, Mike will share a few opening comments, and then we'll take your questions. During this call, we may make forward-looking statements. Please see the Risk Factors section of our latest annual report on Form 10-K for further discussion of forward-looking statements.

稍後，邁克將分享一些開場評論，然後我們將回答您的問題。在本次電話會議期間，我們可能會做出前瞻性陳述。有關前瞻性陳述的進一步討論，請參閱我們最新的 10-K 表格年度報告的風險因素部分。

We may also refer to adjusted results and outlook. Both exclude certain items described in this morning's news release. The release has further information about these adjustments and reconciliations to comparable GAAP financial measures.

我們也可能會參考調整後的結果和展望。兩者都排除了今天上午新聞稿中描述的某些項目。該新聞稿包含有關這些調整和與可比 GAAP 財務措施的對賬的更多信息。

Now I'll turn it over to Mike.

現在我將把它交給邁克。

Okay. Thank you, Taryn. Good morning, everyone. Before we get to your questions, I'd like to offer some perspective on our results and outlook. In 2021, we continue to execute our strategy to elevate our categories and expand our markets. While our overall financial results were disappointing, we took decisive action to offset the impact of higher costs with significant pricing actions. These actions, which began in the first half, helped us deliver organic sales growth and improve net selling prices in the second half of the year, including strong fourth quarter performance.

好的。謝謝你，泰林。大家，早安。在我們回答您的問題之前，我想對我們的結果和前景提出一些看法。 2021 年，我們將繼續執行提升品類和拓展市場的戰略。雖然我們的整體財務業績令人失望，但我們採取果斷行動，通過重大定價行動來抵消成本上升的影響。這些從上半年開始的行動幫助我們實現了有機銷售增長並提高了下半年的淨售價，包括強勁的第四季度業績。

We continue to make significant progress accelerating organic growth in personal care. Through the year, our team launched strong innovation and support it with superior local market execution, all of which contributed to strong share gains in numerous key markets.

我們繼續在加速個人護理領域的有機增長方面取得重大進展。一年來，我們的團隊推出了強大的創新，並以卓越的本地市場執行力為其提供支持，所有這些都為眾多關鍵市場的強勁份額增長做出了貢獻。

We also strengthened market positions in several important growth markets, like integrating Softex in Indonesia, commissioning a state-of-the-art production facility in Nigeria and advancing our route to market in India. While we're encouraged with our top line performance and the way our teams executed in a very dynamic environment, our margins and earnings were negatively impacted by a challenging operating environment. Input costs escalated well beyond previous levels, and supply chain disruptions limited our ability to fully meet the growing consumer demand for our products. In 2022, we intend to accelerate organic growth further. We have strong brands and healthy categories. We'll continue to support our brands with breakthrough innovation, agile digital and superior local market execution.

我們還加強了在幾個重要增長市場的市場地位，例如在印度尼西亞整合 Softex、在尼日利亞委託最先進的生產設施以及推進我們在印度市場的路線。雖然我們對我們的頂線表現和我們的團隊在非常動態的環境中的執行方式感到鼓舞，但我們的利潤率和收益受到了充滿挑戰的運營環境的負面影響。投入成本大幅上升，遠超以往水平，供應鏈中斷限制了我們完全滿足消費者對我們產品不斷增長的需求的能力。 2022年，我們打算進一步加速有機增長。我們擁有強大的品牌和健康的品類。我們將繼續通過突破性創新、敏捷的數字化和卓越的本地市場執行力來支持我們的品牌。

We also expect performance in our tissue businesses to improve as we cycle the volatility and demand we've experienced over the past 2 years. We are committed to recovering and eventually expanding our margins, and we expect to make progress this year. We've taken significant pricing actions and expect pricing to offset a majority of the impact of cost inflation.

我們還預計，隨著我們在過去 2 年經歷的波動和需求循環，我們的衛生紙業務的業績將有所改善。我們致力於恢復並最終擴大我們的利潤率，我們預計今年會取得進展。我們已採取重大定價行動，並預計定價將抵消成本通脹的大部分影響。

We're confident in our ability to restore our margins to pre-pandemic levels over time. We remain confident in the potential of our brands and categories and in our ability to create meaningful shareholder value while we work to achieve our purpose of Better Care for a Better World.

我們有信心隨著時間的推移將利潤率恢復到大流行前的水平。我們對我們的品牌和品類的潛力以及我們創造有意義的股東價值的能力充滿信心，同時我們努力實現我們的目標，更好地關愛更美好的世界。

Now we'd be happy to take your questions.

現在我們很樂意回答您的問題。

At this time, we will open the floor for questions. (Operator Instructions) Thank you. Our first question will come from Chris Carey with Wells Fargo Securities.

此時，我們將開始提問。 （操作員說明）謝謝。我們的第一個問題將來自富國銀行證券公司的 Chris Carey。

Can you just -- maybe to start, just help frame the volume impact that you're expecting from the price hikes? I guess based on your comments around pricing that's going to cover the majority of inflation, seems like you're suggesting maybe 4% to 5% range on pricing; maybe volumes, down about 1%. Is that fair?

你能不能——也許開始，只是幫助確定價格上漲對銷量的影響？我猜根據您對將涵蓋大部分通貨膨脹的定價的評論，您似乎建議定價可能在 4% 到 5% 範圍內；也許成交量，下降約 1%。這公平嗎？

And then maybe where you expect the volumes to play out? Because, clearly, there's some momentum in personal care. Consumer tissue is coming off of a year where comps shouldn't really be too much of an issue. I wonder if you could just dimensionalize that comment around pricing versus volumes and how you're seeing it play out and whether you could see some upside, if you see less, stay where they are.

然後也許你期望這些卷在哪裡播放？因為，很明顯，個人護理領域有一些發展勢頭。消費紙巾即將結束的一年，comps 不應該成為一個太大的問題。我想知道您是否可以圍繞定價與數量以及您如何看待它以及您是否可以看到一些上漲空間來衡量該評論，如果您看到的更少，請留在原地。

Yes. I think that's a good push, Chris, and I think that's right, which is, overall, we feel good about the momentum of our business overall. Personal care, for sure, strong performance, and we're expecting that performance to continue. We've got great innovation coming in, great brand support throughout the year on both our consumer tissue and our personal care businesses. And so I think we feel good about the commercial programming.

是的。克里斯，我認為這是一個很好的推動，我認為這是對的，總體而言，我們對整體業務的發展勢頭感覺良好。個人護理，當然，強勁的表現，我們期待這種表現繼續下去。我們在消費者紙巾和個人護理業務方面全年都獲得了巨大的創新和強大的品牌支持。所以我認為我們對商業節目感覺很好。

That said, there is significant pricing in the plan. And so there will be an elasticity impact, which we have estimated. So we have volume down a little bit, offsetting some of the organic growth that's being driven by the commercial programming.

也就是說，該計劃中有很大的定價。因此會產生彈性影響，這是我們估計的。所以我們的數量有所下降，抵消了商業節目推動的一些有機增長。

And so the reality is, thus far, I would say the categories -- our categories are essential. And I think the demand that we saw in the fourth quarter kind of highlights the essential nature of our categories. And despite the price increases, we are seeing good volume performance. And so I'd love to see that our elasticity assumptions are a little conservative. And potentially, there could be a little upside.

所以現實是，到目前為止，我會說類別——我們的類別是必不可少的。我認為我們在第四季度看到的需求凸顯了我們品類的本質。儘管價格上漲，但我們看到了良好的銷量表現。所以我很樂意看到我們的彈性假設有點保守。並且潛在地，可能會有一點上行空間。

Generally, in our categories, if the other -- if the market moves in a direction, generally, elasticities are a little lower.

一般來說，在我們的類別中，如果另一個——如果市場朝著一個方向移動，一般來說，彈性會略低一些。

Okay. And just -- yes, yes. No, that's helpful. And just one follow-up on the outlook for input cost inflation. I think maybe that's part of the surprise today. Can you just maybe dimensionalize the significance of distribution of energy? You called out polymer-based materials. I guess pulp is secondarily -- is the secondary impact relative to those. But can you just frame the relative impact of these and whether again the line of sight or whether you're just taking a bit more of a conservative view, cognizant of what you said in the prepared remarks that visibility is a bit lower in this environment.

好的。只是——是的，是的。不，這很有幫助。並且只是對投入成本通脹前景的一項後續行動。我想這也許是今天驚喜的一部分。你能把能量分佈的重要性維度化嗎？你提到了基於聚合物的材料。我猜紙漿是次要的 - 是相對於那些的次要影響。但是你能不能描述一下這些的相對影響，以及視線還是你只是採取更保守的觀點，認識到你在準備好的評論中所說的，在這種環境下能見度有點低.

Sure, Chris. Let me spend a minute on our inflation outlook for 2022. You just mentioned, it continues to have volatility around it. For perspective, if we had given you our outlook on the October call, we would have been $300 million lower than the outlook that we're providing today. So it's been quite volatile. And we're kind of calling it at a tough part of the cycle, hence, the range around it.

當然，克里斯。讓我花一點時間談談我們對 2022 年的通脹前景。你剛才提到，它周圍仍然存在波動。從角度來看，如果我們在 10 月的電話會議上給你我們的展望，我們將比我們今天提供的展望低 3 億美元。所以它非常不穩定。而且我們有點在周期的艱難部分調用它，因此，它周圍的範圍。

But let me talk about what we see. Approximately half of the inflation for 2022 is expected to come from distribution and energy. And then of the raw material component, the inflation will be led by polymer-based purchase materials, so things like superabsorbent and nonwovens and then followed by pulp.

但是讓我談談我們所看到的。預計 2022 年大約一半的通貨膨脹將來自分銷和能源。然後是原材料部分，通脹將由聚合物基採購材料主導，如高吸水性和非織造布，然後是紙漿。

And so let me just spend a minute on the 2 areas that will make up our commodity inflation. Number one is what happens with market prices, and I'll give you a little more detail there in a minute. But the second one is how inflation -- commodity inflation flows through our P&L. And as you know, we use contract structures to manage some of the volatility on commodities, and some of those contracts reset in the beginning of the year. So they reset at higher prices this year. And then some of them also have some timing lag built in, so some of the high inflation that you'd see in the market in the fourth quarter will flow through our P&L in the early part of 2022.

因此，讓我花一分鐘時間討論構成商品通脹的兩個領域。第一個是市場價格會發生什麼，我會在一分鐘內給你更多的細節。但第二個是通脹——商品通脹如何通過我們的損益表流動。如您所知，我們使用合約結構來管理商品的一些波動性，其中一些合約在年初重置。所以他們今年以更高的價格重置。然後其中一些還存在一些時間滯後，因此您在第四季度在市場上看到的一些高通脹將在 2022 年初流經我們的損益表。

But that said, on the market prices, I'll tell you what we're seeing. So the market price in North America for eucalyptus will be down. The market price for softwood, we're expecting to be down in a similar amount to eucalyptus. And the full year average polypropylene prices will also be down for market pricing in 2022. So those are the things you hear us talk about the most.

但這就是說，在市場價格上，我會告訴你我們所看到的。所以北美桉樹的市場價格將會下降。軟木的市場價格，我們預計會以與桉樹相似的幅度下降。 2022 年全年平均聚丙烯價格也將因市場定價而下降。所以這些是您聽到我們談論最多的事情。

But since the inflation is coming from other areas in 2022, let me comment on market pricing that we expect to be up. Fluff pulp, we expect to be up; recycled fiber, expect to be up; nonwovens, expect to be up; superabsorbent, up sizably next year; distribution, up; and energy, up. So the basket of commodities, well, the traditional ones, thankfully, we expect to be coming down, and we're already seeing that in the fourth quarter. There's a meaningful portion of our basket that the market prices will be up on in 2022, and that's what's reflected in the outlook that we provided.

但由於 2022 年通脹來自其他領域，讓我評論一下我們預計會上漲的市場定價。絨毛漿，我們預計會上漲；再生纖維，有望上漲；無紡布，有望上漲；超強吸水性，明年大幅增長；分佈，向上；和能量，向上。因此，一籃子商品，好吧，傳統的，幸運的是，我們預計會下降，我們已經在第四季度看到了這一點。 2022 年市場價格將上漲，這就是我們提供的前景所反映的。

Yes. So Chris, maybe I'll just tack on. I mean, historically, what we see is a quick reversion in our commodities. Like typically, in 2018, right, the big driver of our increase was pulp. And so that quickly receded in 2019 and 2020, to some extent. And so that's typically we'll see in our categories. We will see reversion. It always happens in our categories, and so I expect -- fully expect over time pulp to come down and the resin-based, whether it's superabsorbents or nonwovens, to come back down. But this cycle is a little different because the peak is higher. It's broader, and it's longer. And so regardless of what's happening with the cycle, we are going to restore our margins with both price and cost initiatives. And we expect our teams to cover the majority of inflation with pricing. So that's part one.

是的。所以克里斯，也許我會繼續。我的意思是，從歷史上看，我們看到的是我們商品的快速回歸。像往常一樣，在 2018 年，我們增長的主要動力是紙漿。因此，在某種程度上，這種情況在 2019 年和 2020 年迅速消退。所以這通常是我們會在我們的類別中看到的。我們將看到回歸。它總是發生在我們的類別中，所以我預計 - 隨著時間的推移，紙漿會下降，而樹脂基，無論是超吸收劑還是非織造布，都會回落。但是這個週期有點不同，因為峰值更高。它更廣泛，也更長。因此，無論周期發生了什麼，我們都將通過價格和成本舉措來恢復我們的利潤。我們希望我們的團隊能夠通過定價來彌補大部分通貨膨脹。這是第一部分。

If we get a little more reversion, we're not expecting reversion this year. And if we do, then our recovery will be a little bit faster. That said, there will be reversion at some point. But given the call, and I think what's maybe a little confusing to maybe some of the analysts and investors, as Maria mentioned, it's a broader set of inflationary impacts than we typically talk about, which is typically -- and energy is a big one. And labor and freight are big ones that we typically haven't talked about in the past, but are big ones for this year.

如果我們得到更多的回歸，我們預計今年不會回歸。如果我們這樣做了，那麼我們的恢復會快一點。也就是說，在某個時候會有回歸。但考慮到這個電話，我認為可能會讓一些分析師和投資者有點困惑，正如瑪麗亞所提到的，這是比我們通常談論的更廣泛的通脹影響，這通常是 - 能源是一個很大的影響.勞動力和貨運是我們過去通常不會談論的大問題，但今年是大問題。

Our next question comes from Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Lauren Lieberman。

I want to have a little bit about pricing. In the release, there was a mention of -- I don't know if it was -- sorry, in the prepared remarks or the in release, but about some incremental pricing. So a simplistic question: Are there new price increases that have been announced that we should expect to start flowing through?

我想談談定價。在發布中，在準備好的評論或發布中提到了——我不知道是不是——抱歉，但是關於一些增量定價。所以一個簡單的問題：是否已經宣布了新的價格上漲，我們應該期待開始流動？

But then perhaps, more interestingly, I was curious about the ability to price for energy, for logistics and then also for the fact that contracts are resetting higher. Because I was just wondering, is it more difficult if market pricing is down so that what your customers see is a better, relatively speaking, better environment, but you're talking about your contracts resetting higher and that being part of the difficulty here? Is it more difficult to get incremental pricing through, and that's kind of the construct driving inflation?

但也許，更有趣的是，我對能源定價能力、物流定價能力以及合同重置更高這一事實感到好奇。因為我只是想知道，如果市場定價下降，那麼你的客戶看到的是一個更好的、相對而言、更好的環境，但你說的是你的合同重置得更高，這是困難的一部分嗎？是不是更難通過增量定價，這是推動通貨膨脹的一種結構？

Yes. Thanks, Lauren. Yes, a couple of things. One, we've executed multiple rounds of pricing and I would say globally. And generally, our pricing is on track. We announced -- I'll just give you an example in North America. I think we announced in March, in August and November, and then I think we may have had another announcement in December as well, so there's been multiple rounds. I will tell you -- and that's happened globally, in most markets around the world for us. I will tell you, in most markets, the trade discussions have generally been very constructive. I think our customers are seeing the same things happen. Especially, as you mentioned, in some of these other areas, they are more affected by freight and distribution and some of those things than we are since it's a bigger component of their P&Ls.

是的。謝謝，勞倫。是的，有幾件事。一，我們已經執行了多輪定價，我會說是全球性的。一般來說，我們的定價是正常的。我們宣布——我將在北美舉一個例子。我認為我們在 3 月、8 月和 11 月宣布了，然後我認為我們可能在 12 月也有另一個公告，所以已經進行了多輪。我會告訴你——這已經在全球範圍內發生了，在我們的全球大多數市場中。我會告訴你，在大多數市場上，貿易討論通常都非常有建設性。我認為我們的客戶正在看到同樣的事情發生。特別是，正如你所提到的，在其他一些領域，他們比我們更容易受到貨運和分銷以及其中一些事情的影響，因為這是他們損益表的一個更大組成部分。

So I would say the discussions have generally been constructive. We've seen some movement in other brands and some movement in private labels. There is a little stickiness in some markets, like in Western Europe and Latin America, for us. But as I mentioned to Chris, the consumer demand reflects the essential nature of our categories. And so we expect to make progress on pricing. We expect to make progress on recovering our margins. And as a principle, I would say we're expecting our teams to be able to price to offset the majority of the inflation.

所以我想說，討論總體上是建設性的。我們已經看到其他品牌的一些變化和自有品牌的一些變化。對我們而言，在某些市場（例如西歐和拉丁美洲）存在一些粘性。但正如我向克里斯提到的，消費者需求反映了我們品類的本質。因此，我們希望在定價方面取得進展。我們希望在恢復我們的利潤率方面取得進展。作為一項原則，我想說我們希望我們的團隊能夠通過定價來抵消大部分通貨膨脹。

Okay. Great. And then just one other question I had was on cost savings. Restructuring is complete and now ongoing FORCE savings. The FORCE forecast of $300 million to $350 million is a little bit low by recent standards. And I know also in the prepared remarks or release, you mentioned less savings on the negotiated raw material prices. But I think one thing we talked about last quarter and I talked with other companies is sort of the difficulty of achieving typical run rate productivity in a constrained environment, whether it's because of labor, access to the plants with COVID and absenteeism, challenges throughout the supply chain. So I was wondering if you could comment a little bit on that on the absolute level of FORCE savings for this year? And just if these sorts of impediments are part of why the number might be a little bit lower than you might typically target in such a deeply inflationary environment?

好的。偉大的。然後我的另一個問題是節省成本。重組已完成，現在正在進行 FORCE 儲蓄。以最近的標準衡量，FORCE 的 3 億至 3.5 億美元的預測有點低。而且我也知道在準備好的評論或新聞稿中，您提到談判原材料價格的節省較少。但我認為我們在上個季度和其他公司討論過的一件事是在受限的環境中實現典型的運行率生產率有點困難，無論是因為勞動力、進入有 COVID 和曠工的工廠、整個過程中的挑戰供應鏈。所以我想知道您是否可以就今年 FORCE 節省的絕對水平發表一點評論？如果這些障礙是為什麼這個數字可能比你在如此嚴重的通貨膨脹環境中通常的目標低一點的部分原因？

Yes. Lauren, you're spot-on with what you're hearing from other companies. It's the same thing that we are seeing within our FORCE cost savings. The negotiated material price component will be down meaningfully. If you think about the benefit of our contracts in 2021 was significant. As those reset, as we move forward, that's less of a benefit for us in 2022. But we do still expect to see benefits from product changes and from ongoing productivity improvements. The other line that's in our FORCE cost savings is distribution. So under normal circumstances, we would be driving productivity in distribution expenses every year. Those are going the other way right now. The distribution costs are up meaningfully, and they will continue to be is our expectation in 2022.

是的。勞倫，你從其他公司那裡聽到的消息很準確。這與我們在 FORCE 成本節約中看到的相同。協商的材料價格部分將顯著下降。如果你想想我們在 2021 年的合同帶來的好處是巨大的。隨著這些重置，隨著我們的前進，這對我們在 2022 年的好處越來越少。但我們仍然希望看到產品變化和持續的生產力提高帶來的好處。我們的 FORCE 成本節約中的另一條線是分銷。因此，在正常情況下，我們每年都會提高分銷費用的生產力。這些現在正朝著相反的方向發展。分銷成本顯著上升，並將繼續是我們在 2022 年的預期。

And then, as you said, given what's happening in the supply chain where our demand is exceeding our ability to supply at the moment, taking any downtime on any of our machines is very punitive. And so finding the time to do the work to drive the savings is a bit challenged, and that's really what's behind the range.

然後，正如你所說，考慮到供應鏈中正在發生的事情，我們的需求超過了我們目前的供應能力，讓我們的任何機器停機都是非常懲罰性的。因此，找時間做工作以節省開支是有點挑戰的，而這正是該範圍背後的真正原因。

I will say that the team kicked off a program in 2021 to really look at the multiyear pipeline that we have around FORCE cost savings, and we have better visibility today than we've ever had in terms of what those opportunities are and how we need to -- how we can unlock those. And that includes some investment behind the supply chain that you see showing up in other areas of the P&L. But we've never had better visibility to what those opportunities are, and they continue to be meaningful for the company. And as things -- when things normalize around supply chain, we'll be able to drive a higher number on that FORCE cost savings line.

我要說的是，該團隊在 2021 年啟動了一項計劃，以真正審視我們圍繞 FORCE 成本節約所擁有的多年管道，並且在這些機會是什麼以及我們如何需要方面，我們今天比以往任何時候都擁有更好的可見性to - 我們如何解鎖這些。這包括您在損益表的其他領域看到的供應鏈背後的一些投資。但我們從未如此清楚地了解這些機會是什麼，而且它們對公司仍然有意義。而且，當事情圍繞供應鏈正常化時，我們將能夠在 FORCE 成本節約線上推動更高的數字。

Our next question comes from Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Steve Powers。

Maybe a little more clarity and color around your guidance, I guess, from 2 perspectives. First is, in the first quarter, your prepared remarks suggests incremental difficulty in that first quarter with a sequential decline in earnings. I would think you might have some room for sequential acceleration on revenue, even with a higher FX burden. So I'm guessing that incremental pressure is coming from cost pressure and margin pressure. But just again, maybe you can dimensionalize that.

我猜，從兩個角度來看，您的指導可能會更加清晰和色彩豐富。首先，在第一季度，你準備好的評論表明第一季度的困難增加，收益連續下降。我認為你可能有一些空間可以連續加速收入，即使外匯負擔更高。所以我猜測增量壓力來自成本壓力和利潤壓力。但再說一次，也許你可以把它維度化。

And I want to juxtapose that against your -- the strategic ambition to restore margins, and I'm really curious as to where you think you can get to on that objective by year-end. So I guess I'm trying to get a little bit more depiction in my mind about what the kind of improvement curve looks like throughout the year as you slide south in 1Q and then build back, trying to get a sense of where you think like the exit rate is in '22 as a base case.

我想將其與您恢復利潤的戰略雄心並列，我真的很好奇您認為您可以在年底前實現該目標。所以我想我正試圖在我的腦海中更多地描述當你在第一季度向南滑行然後重建時全年的改進曲線是什麼樣的，試圖了解你的想法退出率是在 22 年作為基本情況。

Sure. I'll start, and then Mike will add some comments. But let me address the first quarter first. We usually don't give quarterly guidance. And even when you push us to do so, we generally don't do it. But I think it's very important to understand what we think is happening in this quarter because we do expect that our earnings will be lower than they were in the fourth quarter, and that's driven by a few things. One, the commodity pressure will continue to be intense, and inflation in the first quarter will be high. The pricing isn't fully in, in the fourth quarter. And then we're in the midst of pretty acute supply chain disruption caused by omicron. So -- but we are seeing, as our other companies and as our suppliers and as are our customers, but we are seeing higher absentee rates which is stressing our ability to fulfill the demand that we see and get the products manufactured and get them to the customers and the customers to get them on shelf. So that is all happening live right now, and so we're calling the year at a very challenging time to call the year given the amount of volatility right at this moment.

當然。我將開始，然後 Mike 將添加一些評論。但讓我先談談第一季度。我們通常不提供季度指導。即使您推動我們這樣做，我們通常也不會這樣做。但我認為了解我們認為本季度發生的事情非常重要，因為我們確實預計我們的收益將低於第四季度的水平，這是由一些因素驅動的。一、大宗商品壓力將持續緊張，一季度通脹居高不下。第四季度的定價尚未完全確定。然後我們正處於由 omicron 造成的非常嚴重的供應鏈中斷之中。所以 - 但我們看到，正如我們的其他公司、我們的供應商和我們的客戶一樣，但我們看到更高的缺勤率，這強調了我們滿足需求的能力，我們看到並製造產品並讓它們客戶和客戶讓他們上架。所以這一切現在都在現場發生，所以我們在一個非常具有挑戰性的時刻打電話給這一年，因為此時此刻的波動性很大。

And then as I look at 2022 in total, we're expecting stronger second half earnings, and we are expecting a ramp, what's causing the ramp. Some commodity costs are expected to ease. And while I talked a bit about contract structures and other things, we also have exposure to the spot market on commodities. So we are expecting commodities to ease.

然後，當我總體上看 2022 年時，我們預計下半年收益會更強勁，而且我們預計會出現增長，這是導致增長的原因。一些大宗商品成本有望緩解。雖然我談到了合約結構和其他事情，但我們也接觸到商品現貨市場。因此，我們預計大宗商品會有所緩解。

And then as you know, just on comparison, of the $1.5 billion inflation that we saw in 2021, $1 billion of that came in the second half. And so if you're looking year-over-year, you got an easier lap in the second half.

然後如您所知，僅作為比較，在我們在 2021 年看到的 15 億美元的通貨膨脹中，其中 10 億美元出現在下半年。因此，如果您查看年復一年的數據，您會在下半場獲得更輕鬆的單圈。

The other thing is we expect the pricing that we currently see to be fully in the market in the second half, and then our cost savings also ramp as we go through the year. So those are the factors that drive the ramp.

另一件事是，我們預計我們目前看到的定價將在下半年完全進入市場，然後隨著我們一年的過去，我們的成本節約也會增加。所以這些是推動斜坡的因素。

We are very focused on margin recovery. Recognizing what the $1.5 billion of inflation from last year and then the added inflation this year does to the margin structure, we are very focused on recovering the margins of this business to pre-pandemic levels and then expanding them over time. We expect to make progress on that as we go through this year. Again, we're calling the year in a very difficult part of the cycle. So when I look here today and say, "This is what our fourth quarter is going to look like," there's some volatility around that.

我們非常關注利潤率的恢復。認識到去年 15 億美元的通貨膨脹以及今年增加的通貨膨脹對利潤率結構的影響，我們非常專注於將這項業務的利潤率恢復到大流行前的水平，然後隨著時間的推移擴大利潤率。我們希望在今年取得進展。同樣，我們將這一年稱為周期中非常困難的部分。因此，當我今天看到這裡並說，“這就是我們第四季度的樣子”時，周圍會出現一些波動。

So that said, with our current assumptions, we will make progress on the margin recovery through the year after the first quarter, and we would expect to be in a better place by the time we exit this year and moving forward.

也就是說，根據我們目前的假設，我們將在第一季度之後的一年內在利潤率恢復方面取得進展，並且我們預計到今年退出並繼續前進時，我們會處於一個更好的位置。

But Mike, if you've got some comments.

但是邁克，如果你有一些意見。

Well, yes, great question, Steve. Let me hit -- there's really 3 strategic imperatives for us as a management team. I mean, #1 is we got to accelerate organic growth. And you can see all the work we've been doing the last several years doing that, and I think we're making progress. And we expect our tissue businesses to improve now that we cycled a lot of the COVID demand volatility. So that's part one.

嗯，是的，很好的問題，史蒂夫。讓我打一下——作為一個管理團隊，我們確實有 3 個戰略要務。我的意思是，#1 是我們必須加速有機增長。你可以看到過去幾年我們一直在做的所有工作，我認為我們正在取得進展。我們預計我們的衛生紙業務將會改善，因為我們已經經歷了很多 COVID 需求波動。這是第一部分。

Part two, we've got to enhance margins. And so I'll come back to that in a second. And part three is I want to reduce our earnings volatility. Obviously, with this volatile environment, I'm not going to talk much about that. But just -- you should know that we've got smart people working on that because I recognize that's a strategic issue for the company, and we do want to reduce our earnings volatility over time.

第二部分，我們必須提高利潤率。所以我稍後再談。第三部分是我想減少我們的收益波動。顯然，在這種多變的環境下，我不會多談這個。但只是 - 你應該知道我們有聰明的人在努力，因為我認識到這對公司來說是一個戰略問題，我們確實希望隨著時間的推移減少我們的收益波動。

On the margins, my goal is to enhance margins over time, over the long term. And that's kind of the basis of our elevate and expand strategies. The reasons why we want to elevate our categories and expand our markets is to do that. That's a core component of it.

在利潤方面，我的目標是長期提高利潤。這就是我們提升和擴展戰略的基礎。我們想要提升我們的類別並擴大我們的市場的原因就是這樣做。這是它的核心組成部分。

I will say given the fact that we've taken on last year, I think, 2x our previous all-time high in inflation, obviously, our margin has taken a substantial hit. And we're very focused on the near term on margin recovery.

我會說，鑑於我們去年的通貨膨脹率是我們之前歷史最高水平的兩倍，顯然，我們的利潤率受到了重大打擊。我們非常關注近期的利潤率恢復。

I don't think we're going to give you specific timing, but here's what I will say is that I'm targeting for us to deliver in the upper end of our range, and I expect our teams to perform that way. And if our assumptions coming into the year hold, then we will have, by year-end, delivered a substantial improvement in our gross margin performance over the course of the year. And that's how I'm thinking about it. And then if we get a little reversion in the commodities, then that will accelerate that further.

我不認為我們會給你具體的時間安排，但我要說的是，我的目標是我們的目標是在我們的範圍的高端交付，我希望我們的團隊能夠做到這一點。如果我們對今年的假設成立，那麼我們將在年底前實現全年毛利率的顯著改善。這就是我的想法。然後，如果我們在大宗商品中獲得一點反轉，那麼這將進一步加速。

Okay. I mean, I appreciate the difficulty of trying to call the full year at this point, so thank you for that color. I guess maybe, Mike, a little bit, just if I could...

好的。我的意思是，我很欣賞此時嘗試調用全年的困難，所以謝謝你的顏色。我想也許，邁克，一點點，只要我能...

So just -- I think -- so just so that the point on that is -- the one point I would make is the COVID environment while I would say the demand environment has kind of stabilized, particularly in our tissue businesses, both KCP and consumer tissue, as Maria talks about, the supply environment is probably more volatile now than we've seen throughout the whole COVID period, right? Because it's affecting absenteeism, whether it's in the distribution centers of the plants or our suppliers and missed deployments on pickup. So it's a very volatile environment. I think you're seeing that more broadly as you kind of look at other industries.

所以只是 - 我認為 - 所以我要說的一點是 COVID 環境，而我會說需求環境已經穩定下來，特別是在我們的衛生紙業務中，包括 KCP 和正如 Maria 所說，消費者組織現在的供應環境可能比我們在整個 COVID 期間看到的更加不穩定，對吧？因為它會影響曠工，無論是在工廠的配送中心還是我們的供應商，以及在取貨時錯過部署。所以這是一個非常不穩定的環境。我認為當你審視其他行業時，你會更廣泛地看到這一點。

Yes, for sure. I think we'll continue to hear more about that in the coming days and weeks. Just on that demand environment, Mike, if I could, just -- I think you gave us some good color in the conversation with Chris about how you're thinking about volumes and reaction to pricing this year, but I guess I'm curious as to how your -- the underlying elasticity assumptions compare with historical elasticity, just how you approach coming to that conclusion. And just again, sort of what the basis for your assumed elasticity is and where maybe you're expecting more versus less. Any color there would be helpful.

是肯定的。我認為在接下來的幾天和幾週內，我們將繼續聽到更多關於此的消息。就這種需求環境，邁克，如果可以的話，我想你在與克里斯的談話中給了我們一些很好的色彩，關於你如何考慮今年的銷量和對定價的反應，但我想我很好奇至於您的潛在彈性假設如何與歷史彈性進行比較，以及您如何得出該結論。再說一次，你假設的彈性的基礎是什麼，你可能期望更多而不是更少。那裡的任何顏色都會有幫助。

Yes. Tough question because the trick of the elasticity modeling is we're beyond the range of estimation. So that's the difficult part of it, Steve. And so you're kind of estimating what's happened historically, and the price points are higher than they've been.

是的。棘手的問題，因為彈性建模的技巧是我們超出了估計範圍。所以這就是困難的部分，史蒂夫。所以你有點估計歷史上發生的事情，價格點比以前高。

That said, our past experience is, in our last round of pricing, elasticities have come back. The market generally moved in a direction, and elasticities were a little less than we initially estimated, and that's been our kind of recent history. And so that's what were going on.

也就是說，我們過去的經驗是，在上一輪定價中，彈性已經恢復。市場總體上朝著一個方向發展，彈性比我們最初估計的要小一些，這就是我們最近的歷史。這就是發生的事情。

I think the important thing is we've got a very strong growth playbook. It's working hard. We've gotten very good commercial programming across both our professional and consumer businesses, and so there's really good underlying brand momentum. And so we expect that to continue, and we recognize that we are putting significant pricing out there. And -- but I think as I mentioned earlier, we're seeing the impact of the essential nature of our categories.

我認為重要的是我們有一個非常強大的增長手冊。它正在努力工作。我們的專業和消費者業務都獲得了非常好的商業節目，因此有非常好的潛在品牌動力。因此，我們預計這種情況會繼續下去，並且我們認識到我們正在製定重要的定價。而且 - 但我認為正如我之前提到的，我們正在看到我們類別的基本性質的影響。

Our next question comes from Kevin Grundy with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Kevin Grundy。

A question for Maria, I think, on the outlook first and then I have a follow-up, which is the guidance and how you pulled it together, Maria, how would you characterize the level of conservatism in the outlook? Or I guess said differently, just given the volatility and sort of the unprecedented cost pressure, and I'm not asking you to review at all the earlier question on what's embedded around commodities and input costs. But have you built in sort of additional cushion than you typically would, just given the volatility and how challenging '21 was and the number of downward revisions, Additionals that could be built in than you typically would, so investors can get some level of comfort as best as we can in this environment that this is hopefully sort of a low point?

瑪麗亞的一個問題，我認為，首先是關於前景的問題，然後我有一個後續行動，這是指導以及你如何將其整合在一起，瑪麗亞，你如何描述前景中的保守主義水平？或者我想換種說法，只是考慮到波動性和前所未有的成本壓力，我根本不要求你回顧之前關於商品和投入成本的嵌入問題。但是，考慮到波動性以及 21 年的挑戰性以及向下修正的數量，您是否比通常情況下建立了額外的緩衝，可以比通常情況下建立的附加值，因此投資者可以獲得一定程度的安慰盡我們所能在這種環境下，希望這是一個低點？

Yes. It's a great question. You can imagine, we spent considerable time getting arms around our own plans for calendar 2022, and we're going to hold ourselves accountable from an internal plan standpoint. And as we reviewed that and as we pulled together our internal plan, what I would tell you is at this point in time here in the middle of January, it's tilted more toward risk, and for all the reasons we talked about, and I won't repeat them. It is tilted more toward risk. And so that's how we put the guidance range together. So we've got our internal plan, which is what all of our teams are focused on, either delivering or beating. And then looking at the risks and opportunities, it is tilted to risk, and that's what we used to influence our guidance range, if that's helpful.

是的。這是一個很好的問題。您可以想像，我們花了相當多的時間來製定我們自己的 2022 日曆計劃，並且我們將從內部計劃的角度對自己負責。當我們審查這一點並整理我們的內部計劃時，我要告訴你的是，在 1 月中旬的這個時間點，它更傾向於風險，出於我們討論的所有原因，我贏了不要重複它們。它更傾向於風險。這就是我們將指導範圍放在一起的方式。所以我們有我們的內部計劃，這是我們所有團隊都關注的，無論是交付還是擊敗。然後看看風險和機會，它傾向於風險，這就是我們用來影響我們的指導範圍的東西，如果這有幫助的話。

That is helpful. And just sticking with that for a moment. I guess the area, which was a little bit surprising to me, I guess, like where our model was, was the level of OpEx inflation. I think there's been a great deal of time around modeling COGS and gross margins for all the reasons that we know. But I think the level of OpEx inflation was also a little bit surprising. So maybe just, if you wouldn't mind, and then I'll pass it on, spend a moment on that. And how much is sort of fixed versus variable where sort of, if need be, there's an opportunity to sort of tighten a little bit and pull on the string to offset further inflation that's not currently anticipated?

這很有幫助。只是堅持一會兒。我猜這個讓我有點驚訝的區域，就像我們的模型一樣，是運營支出膨脹的水平。我認為出於我們所知道的所有原因，在建模 COGS 和毛利率方面已經有很多時間了。但我認為 OpEx 通脹水平也有點令人驚訝。所以也許只是，如果你不介意，然後我會繼續，花點時間在上面。多少是固定的還是可變的，如果需要的話，有機會稍微收緊一點，拉動繩子以抵消目前沒有預料到的進一步通脹？

Yes. I think it's a very important area to talk about. So we are continuing to invest in our business. We are bullish about our long-term prospects, and we think the investments that we have been making and that we've ramped up over the last several years since we kicked off K-C 2022 Strategy are paying off. They're working. And so we talked about advertising and what we're doing to support the brands with effective marketing, but those investments go beyond just advertising. We've talked about investing in innovation. We've talked a lot about investing in our commercial capabilities. And we're going to continue to do those things because they're working, and they're paying off and the ROIs are there. And it's those investments that are helping us have meaningful growth in -- especially in our personal care segment of the business. When we look at 2022 versus 2021, we've also talked about the benefit that we had in our between-the-line spending in 2021 due to lower variable compensation expense that normalizes for 2022.

是的。我認為這是一個非常重要的話題。因此，我們將繼續投資於我們的業務。我們看好我們的長期前景，我們認為自我們啟動 K-C 2022 戰略以來，我們一直在進行的投資以及過去幾年加大的投資正在獲得回報。他們在工作。所以我們談到了廣告以及我們正在做些什麼來支持品牌進行有效的營銷，但這些投資不僅僅是廣告。我們已經討論過投資於創新。我們已經談了很多關於投資我們的商業能力的問題。我們將繼續做這些事情，因為它們正在發揮作用，而且它們正在獲得回報並且投資回報率就在那裡。正是這些投資幫助我們實現了有意義的增長——尤其是在我們的個人護理業務領域。當我們比較 2022 年與 2021 年時，我們還談到了我們在 2021 年的線間支出中所獲得的好處，這是由於 2022 年正常化的可變薪酬費用較低。

And the last area I'd comment there on between the lines and investments is we're also making a few, what I would call, foundational investments. And we're very committed to those as we think that they're very meaningful to the long-term health of the company. First, we're opening our North America commercial center in Chicago this spring, which we're very excited about, and our North America team is handling that transition quite well. And early signs are very positive, but it is an investment.

我要評論的最後一個領域和投資之間是我們也在進行一些，我稱之為基礎性投資。我們非常致力於這些，因為我們認為它們對公司的長期健康非常有意義。首先，我們將於今年春天在芝加哥開設北美商業中心，對此我們感到非常興奮，我們的北美團隊正在很好地處理這一過渡。早期跡象非常積極，但這是一項投資。

And the other one I would call out, as I mentioned before, is we are -- we did start our program to upgrade SAP to S/4HANA. We began that last year. That ramps up even more in 2022, and that investment is showing up both in the P&L as well as in our capital expenditures.

正如我之前提到的，我要指出的另一個問題是，我們確實啟動了將 SAP 升級到 S/4HANA 的計劃。我們是從去年開始的。到 2022 年，這一數字甚至會進一步增加，而且這種投資既體現在損益表中，也體現在我們的資本支出中。

So we're sticking with the investments that we know are working and that are fueling the top line. We've got some foundational investments, and then we have some expenses that were lower in '21 that will step up in 2022 around employee cost. And that's really what's behind it. But Mike...

因此，我們堅持我們所知道的正在發揮作用的投資，這些投資正在推動收入增長。我們有一些基礎投資，然後我們有一些在 21 年較低的費用，這些費用將在 2022 年圍繞員工成本增加。這就是它背後的真正原因。但是邁克...

No, just important -- they are important investments. The SAP, obviously, that investment is going to fuel our cost savings for the future, too. And so we feel very good about those, and we're going to continue to be very disciplined about our spending. But we feel like we're making the right investments for the long-term health of the brands and also for the organizational health.

不，只是很重要——它們是重要的投資。顯然，SAP 的這項投資也將推動我們為未來節省成本。所以我們對這些感覺很好，我們將繼續對我們的支出非常自律。但我們覺得我們正在為品牌的長期健康以及組織健康做出正確的投資。

Our next question comes from Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

So my question, Mike and, I guess, Maria, if you -- if we should expect nominal pricing to be in the mid- to high-single digits when it's all said and done at the mid-positive range or pretty much what you're expecting for sales on the 3% to 4% in nominal? And in that case, it implies that probably you're getting additional pricing in the spring with that. And I just want to confirm that because you did imply, obviously FX being a negative and then negative volumes.

所以我的問題，邁克，我想，瑪麗亞，如果你——如果我們應該期望名義定價在中位數到高個位數，而這一切都在中正區間或幾乎你所說的範圍內'預計銷售額在名義上的 3% 到 4%？在這種情況下，這意味著您可能會在春季獲得額外的定價。我只是想確認一下，因為您確實暗示，顯然外匯是負數，然後是負數。

And then related to that, are you seeing private label getting some -- I mean, some of the categories, obviously, had a lot of shelf space during the pandemic, but some of the other categories do not. So I was thinking, are you seeing private label, in particular in diapers, coming back as we go into that? And that is what is informing you, not only about demand elasticity, but also in terms of availability of the product, that you may want to embrace for some private-label concessions here.

然後與此相關的是，您是否看到自有品牌獲得一些 - 我的意思是，一些類別顯然在大流行期間有很多貨架空間，但其他一些類別沒有。所以我在想，你是否看到自有品牌，特別是在尿布中，隨著我們的深入而回歸？這就是告訴您的信息，不僅是關於需求彈性，而且在產品的可用性方面，您可能希望在這裡接受一些自有品牌的讓步。

Yes. Just on the pricing, Andrea, I would expect over the course of the year mid- to high single-digit increases on pricing, and that could vary a little bit based on conditions. But again, that's kind of what we are marching against. And thus far, as I mentioned earlier, we've executed multiple actions, and they're generally on track. And so we feel good about that progress. And obviously, we're keeping a close eye on that.

是的。就定價而言，安德里亞，我預計在今年中到高個位數的定價增長，這可能會因條件而有所不同。但同樣，這就是我們所反對的。到目前為止，正如我之前提到的，我們已經執行了多個操作，並且它們通常都在正軌上。因此，我們對這一進展感覺良好。顯然，我們正在密切關注這一點。

In terms of private label, I think -- and maybe I'll talk to North America differently. I'd still say private label is still down in most categories. I think it was up a little bit in bath tissue but down in most of the other categories. It's something we're going to continue to be very focused on, but we're very pleased with our brand momentum. And I think although we're making progress in organic in North America, some of that's still muted because we're still working through supply challenges. As you recall, we had significant challenges in the first half because of the storm down here in Texas. We recovered very well from that and so really saw our service levels improve throughout the course of the year.

就自有品牌而言，我認為——也許我會以不同的方式與北美交談。我仍然會說自有品牌在大多數類別中仍然下降。我認為它在浴巾中略有上升，但在大多數其他類別中有所下降。這是我們將繼續非常關注的事情，但我們對我們的品牌勢頭感到非常滿意。而且我認為，儘管我們在北美的有機食品方面取得了進展，但其中一些仍然是低調的，因為我們仍在努力應對供應挑戰。您還記得，由於德克薩斯州的風暴，我們在上半年遇到了重大挑戰。我們從中恢復得很好，因此確實看到我們的服務水平在整個一年中都有所提高。

But I'd say even in the fourth quarter, we -- as Maria mentioned, we under-shipped demand because we're having difficulty getting carriers or getting supplies and all the other things that are associated with what's happening with omicron and COVID.

但我想說的是，即使在第四季度，我們——正如瑪麗亞所說，我們的需求不足，因為我們很難獲得承運人或供應品以及與 omicron 和 COVID 發生的事情相關的所有其他事情。

And so again, we're keeping a sharp eye on private label, but we're really focused on driving our business, and we feel good about the progress we're making.

因此，我們再次密切關注自有品牌，但我們真正專注於推動我們的業務，我們對我們正在取得的進展感覺良好。

And in terms of like when you said mid-single digits on top of like low-single digit, call it, 3% to 4% you already implemented, is that the way we should be thinking. In total, between 2021 and 2022, you're going to hit high single-digit price increase, is that the way to think?

當你說中個位數在低個位數之上時，你已經實現了 3% 到 4%，這就是我們應該思考的方式。總的來說，在 2021 年到 2022 年之間，你會達到個位數的高漲價，你會這麼想嗎？

Yes, in general. Again, yes, we -- again, as I mentioned, we've made multiple rounds. And if you could go back and look at our kind of maybe what's happened in pricing in North America already, pretty significant moves.

是的，一般來說。再次，是的，我們 - 再次，正如我所提到的，我們已經進行了多輪。如果你能回過頭來看看我們在北美的定價可能已經發生了什麼，這是非常重要的舉措。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Dara Mohsenian with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Dara Mohsenian。

So just to follow up on Andrea's question, can you give us a little more granularity on what product categories and geographies incremental pricing that's coming in 2022 will be focused on? Is it more just sort of across the board in everything? Are there specific areas where there's more aggressive pricing posture, again, in terms of the incremental increases in 2022?

因此，為了跟進 Andrea 的問題，您能否讓我們更詳細地了解 2022 年即將推出的增量定價將關注哪些產品類別和地區？是不是更全面？就 2022 年的增量增長而言，是否存在更激進的定價態勢？

And then given a lot of these categories we're talking about multiple times that you take incremental pricing, can you just talk about your experience historically when you've been in situations where there's multiple rounds and how the elasticity might be different than in situations where you've just had one round of price increases has been necessary.

然後考慮到我們多次討論的很多這些類別，你會採取增量定價，你能否談談你在經歷多輪融資的情況下的歷史經驗，以及彈性可能與情況不同的情況你剛剛經歷了一輪價格上漲的地方是必要的。

Dara, yes, just as a policy, though, I'll just clarify. I'll talk about the pricing we've implemented. I will not talk about any future pricing actions. Although I'll say, I take as an approach, I do expect pricing to offset a significant portion of inflation. So that's just kind of a principle that I'll kind of put out there.

達拉，是的，不過，作為一項政策，我會澄清一下。我將談談我們實施的定價。我不會談論任何未來的定價行動。雖然我會說，我將其作為一種方法，但我確實希望定價能夠抵消很大一部分通貨膨脹。所以這只是一種原則，我會在那裡提出。

But I'll talk about what's already occurred, and I'll focus on North America as a starting point. We announced mid- to high single-digit increases in March, largely in our personal care business in North America, but -- and about 60% of our consumer business last March.

但我會談談已經發生的事情，並將重點放在北美作為起點。我們在 3 月份宣布了中高個位數的增長，主要是在我們在北美的個人護理業務，但是 - 以及去年 3 月我們大約 60% 的消費者業務。

We took some further action, primarily in tissue on count back in August, and that was effective this quarter. And then we took additional actions that were announced in Q4, generally about a mid-single-digit list increase across most of North America consumer. So that kind of should give you a sense of kind of what's been happening in the marketplace, at least in North America.

我們採取了一些進一步的行動，主要是在 8 月份對紙巾進行計數，這在本季度生效。然後我們採取了在第四季度宣布的其他行動，一般來說，北美大部分消費者的名單增加了中個位數。所以這應該讓你對市場上正在發生的事情有所了解，至少在北美是這樣。

I would say in international market, similar: multiple rounds in Europe; multiple rounds, in some cases, monthly, in Latin America, unfortunately; and of course, in Asia as well. So it's pretty extensive.

我會說在國際市場上，類似的：在歐洲進行多輪；不幸的是，在拉丁美洲進行了多輪，在某些情況下是每月一次；當然，在亞洲也是如此。所以它相當廣泛。

Okay. And it sounds like it's generally broadly across the board. I don't know if you want to -- it sounds like you don't want to get into too much specifics. But generally, we're expecting pretty broad increases in 2022 incrementally. Is that fair?

好的。聽起來它通常是全面的。我不知道你是否願意——聽起來你不想涉及太多細節。但總的來說，我們預計 2022 年將出現相當廣泛的增長。這公平嗎？

Well, yes. I think that's the case. And we're expecting the pricing that we have in the flow-through substantively.

嗯，是。我認為是這樣。我們期待我們在流通中的定價。

Okay. And then on the margin side, the comments about returning to pre-pandemic levels over time. Can you just be a bit more specific on the timing of that? Is that possible at some point in calendar '23? Or is that more of a far-out multiyear goal? How do you think about that? And also, does it require cost levels to come back down? Or is it realistic if you're at current cost levels in terms of ability to recover fully through pricing offsets over time?

好的。然後在邊緣方面，關於隨著時間的推移恢復到大流行前水平的評論。你能更具體地說明一下時間嗎？在 23 年日曆中的某個時間點有可能嗎？或者這更像是一個遙遠的多年目標？你怎麼看？而且，它是否需要成本水平才能回落？或者，如果您處於當前的成本水平，隨著時間的推移通過定價抵消完全恢復的能力，這是否現實？

Yes. Dara, I'm not going to give a specific time frame. And I would say that the driver of that is really the volatility around the factors that are causing the margin to be depressed in the first place. And it's just -- it's too hard to call beyond 2022. What I can tell you though is that I'm very confident that we will take -- we are taking and we will take the right actions to recover the margins of the business, whatever that looks like. So we've shared with you what our assumptions are for 2022 in terms of all of the moving pieces. And if it turns out to be different than that, if there turns out to be upside, that's great for all of us. If it turns out that the environment is rougher than what we're thinking, we'll take the right action. So if inflation continues to run, we'll continue to price. We'll continually look at the cost structure of the business and take the right actions. But I can't, today, give you the exact timing of when we'll have the margin structure where it was in 2019 before the pandemic began.

是的。達拉，我不會給出具體的時間框架。我想說，這實際上是導致利潤率下降的因素的波動性。只是——很難在 2022 年之後打電話。不過我可以告訴你的是，我非常有信心我們會採取——我們正在採取並且我們將採取正確的行動來恢復業務的利潤，不管它看起來像什麼。因此，我們已經與您分享了我們對 2022 年所有活動的假設。如果結果與此不同，如果結果有上升空間，那對我們所有人來說都很好。如果事實證明環境比我們想像的更惡劣，我們將採取正確的行動。因此，如果通貨膨脹繼續運行，我們將繼續定價。我們將持續關注業務的成本結構並採取正確的行動。但是，我今天不能告訴你我們何時將保證金結構保持在大流行開始之前的 2019 年的確切時間。

The other thing that I'll comment on when we think about that and the actions and kind of managing through that, going back a bit to what Kevin was probing on in terms of the cost structure, this is probably the right time to call out. We did wrap up the Global Restructuring Program that we kicked off in 2018, and we successfully delivered that with annualized savings of $560 million. 40% of those accrue to the between the lines.

當我們考慮到這一點以及採取的行動和管理方式時，我將發表評論的另一件事，回到凱文在成本結構方面的探索，這可能是正確的時機.我們確實完成了 2018 年啟動的全球重組計劃，並成功實現了這一目標，每年節省了 5.6 億美元。其中 40% 產生於兩行之間。

And so when you look at our cost structure today outside of the supply chain, we really did restructure the between-the-line spending of the company. We took almost 200 basis points out, and then we invested back in the areas where we will have competitive advantage and differentiating capabilities.

因此，當您查看我們今天在供應鏈之外的成本結構時，我們確實確實重組了公司的線間支出。我們提取了近 200 個基點，然後我們重新投資於我們將具有競爭優勢和差異化能力的領域。

So when I look at the cost structure between the lines today, we are in good shape, and we actually benchmark in the top quartile in terms of between-the-line cost structure. So feel good about where we are and that we're optimized, and we're investing in places that have high ROI. So I do want to call that out. If the environment changes over time, that part of the P&L I feel good about.

因此，當我今天查看生產線之間的成本結構時，我們狀況良好，實際上我們在生產線之間的成本結構方面處於前四分之一。因此，對我們所處的位置以及我們的優化感到滿意，我們正在投資具有高投資回報率的地方。所以我確實想把它說出來。如果環境隨著時間的推移發生變化，我對損益表的那部分感覺很好。

Dara, the other thing I'll add is the fundamentals would suggest in our core commodities, there's going to be reversion. But I do not want our teams waiting for commodities to come down to drive margin recovery. And so our plan is to work to recover margins. And then if the commodities -- when they do revert, then that will affect -- that will change the timing and hopefully move it up.

達拉，我要補充的另一件事是我們核心商品的基本面，將會出現逆轉。但我不希望我們的團隊等待商品價格下跌來推動利潤率回升。所以我們的計劃是努力恢復利潤。然後，如果大宗商品——當它們確實恢復時，就會產生影響——這將改變時機並有望推動它上升。

Our next question comes from Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jason English。

A quick question for clarification. In response to an earlier question, I think many people will have interpreted your comments to suggest that you expect to realize around 5% plus pricing this year. But many times throughout the call, you suggested that you expect prices to lag inflation and have a price cost deficit. If you got 5% flowing through the P&L, that would be almost $1 billion and would eclipse your cost inflation. So can you clarify what seem to be 2 conflicting comments?

一個需要澄清的快速問題。在回答之前的問題時，我想很多人會將您的評論解讀為您預計今年將實現約 5% 以上的定價。但在整個電話會議中，您多次建議您預計價格將落後於通貨膨脹並存在價格成本赤字。如果你有 5% 的資金流經損益表，那將是近 10 億美元，並且會讓你的成本膨脹黯然失色。那麼你能澄清一下似乎是 2 條相互矛盾的評論嗎？

Yes. I think that the numbers that you quoted are right. And when I look at currency, commodity price for 2022, that should be about even for 2022. The margin story is that, that was not even in 2021, given the $1.5 billion of inflation that we saw. It was -- I think it's about a 30% drag to operating profit growth in '21. So while it's even for 2022, we haven't yet recovered the impact from the spike in inflation in 2021, Jason, if that's helpful.

是的。我認為你引用的數字是正確的。當我查看 2022 年的貨幣和大宗商品價格時，2022 年的價格應該與 2022 年持平。考慮到我們看到的 15 億美元的通貨膨脹，利潤率甚至在 2021 年都沒有。這是 - 我認為這對 21 年的營業利潤增長造成了大約 30% 的拖累。因此，即使是 2022 年，我們還沒有恢復 2021 年通脹飆升的影響，傑森，如果這有幫助的話。

Sure. No, it's really helpful. Because I think you said you expect to offset the majority of cost inflation next year, and you said it many times. But the reality is you expect price to offset, not just all the cost inflation, but most of currency, which is I think just a different conclusion.

當然。不，這真的很有幫助。因為我認為你說過你希望在明年抵消大部分成本膨脹，而且你說過很多次。但現實情況是你期望價格抵消，不僅僅是所有的成本通脹，而是大部分的貨幣，我認為這只是一個不同的結論。

Then to get down to your numbers, you really have to take an axe to volume if you're going to get that much price. So I guess my question is where's the -- where are you expecting volume to fall short? Because you're telling us that you under shipped this year. So at some point, hopefully, you catch up, and we replenish. We catch up on some of that, so you get a benefit. Professional, I think, is still tracking down 16% to 17% volumetrically to pre-COVID levels. I imagine that's going to be a pretty strong tailwind. Tell me if it's not. So where's the big offset?

然後為了得到你的數字，如果你要得到這麼高的價格，你真的必須砍掉交易量。所以我想我的問題是——你期望銷量在哪裡不足？因為你告訴我們你今年發貨不足。所以在某個時候，希望你能趕上，我們補充。我們趕上了其中的一些，所以你會得到好處。我認為，專業人士的體積仍將下降 16% 至 17% 至 COVID 之前的水平。我想這將是一個非常強大的順風。告訴我是否不是。那麼大偏移在哪裡呢？

Well, again, I think the key -- here's a couple of things. And I think you're right, Jason. I think we're expecting improved performance and growth in both consumer tissue business and professional business. I think on professional, though, I would not expect a snapback, right? Because I think what has done is stabilized at a lower level. We're running below, about 85% -- our WATCHMAN business is running at about 85% of what they had done pre-pandemic. And that's because -- I don't know if you're in your office, but we haven't seen a full-scale return to offices, and I don't expect that in the near term. We haven't seen a full-scale return to travel, especially business travel, and I don't think that we're expecting that in the near term. And so I think we are dealing with a professional business that's going to grow, and we're pretty excited about the growth plans that we have this year, the innovation and the commercial trends we have in the business this year. But it's not going to revert to pre-pandemic levels this year, at least. And so that's part one.

好吧，我認為關鍵是——這裡有幾件事。我認為你是對的，傑森。我認為我們預計消費紙巾業務和專業業務的業績和增長都會有所改善。不過，我認為在專業方面，我不會期待反彈，對吧？因為我認為所做的事情已經穩定在一個較低的水平上。我們的運行速度低於大約 85%——我們的 WATCHMAN 業務的運行速度約為大流行前的 85%。那是因為 - 我不知道你是否在你的辦公室，但我們還沒有看到辦公室的全面回歸，我預計短期內不會出現這種情況。我們還沒有看到旅行的全面回歸，尤其是商務旅行，我認為我們在短期內不會期待這種情況。所以我認為我們正在處理一個將會增長的專業業務，我們對今年的增長計劃、今年的創新和商業趨勢感到非常興奮。但至少今年不會恢復到大流行前的水平。這是第一部分。

Consumer tissue, same thing. And I think there's been a lot of volatility in the last couple of years driven by consumer stock-up and then destocking and so forth. When it all shakes out, it's a very stable business, probably one of the most stable businesses in consumer. And in the last couple of years, a 2-year stack of our fourth quarter would be plus 3%, right? And so we're expecting solid growth in consumer tissue. And then our personal care business globally is doing very, very well, as you can see in the fourth quarter, being up double digits. And we're expecting continued growth there. The offset really from us is we're pushing prices at a pretty high level, and so that's going to have an effect. And we hope that our elasticity assumptions prove out to be a little conservative.

消費者組織，同樣的事情。而且我認為在過去的幾年裡，由於消費者囤貨然後去庫存等原因，出現了很大的波動。當一切都結束時，它是一個非常穩定的業務，可能是消費者最穩定的業務之一。在過去的幾年裡，我們第四季度的 2 年堆棧將增加 3%，對嗎？因此，我們預計消費紙巾將實現穩健增長。然後我們在全球的個人護理業務表現非常非常好，正如你在第四季度看到的那樣，增長了兩位數。我們預計那裡會繼續增長。我們真正的抵消是我們將價格推高到一個相當高的水平，所以這會產生影響。我們希望我們的彈性假設被證明有點保守。

Yes. I'm going to try to squeeze one more real quick. Share repo, you effectively paused it back half of the year. You're guiding down free cash flow for next year. When should we expect to see you back in the market buying back stock?

是的。我將嘗試再快速擠一擠。分享回購，你有效地將它暫停了半年。你正在引導明年的自由現金流。我們應該什麼時候看到你回到市場回購股票？

Yes. As soon as we've got the excess cash flow that will allow us to do it. So again, we're in the tough part of the cycle here in terms of capital allocation. Nothing on capital allocation how we think about it has changed. And those steps are invest in the business, look to grow the dividend, which I'm pleased to say we will do again for the 50th consecutive year. And then beyond that, with the remaining cash flow, we're always looking at M&A. But assuming there's nothing there, then it goes to share buybacks. So when the margins recover -- let me start at the top, right? We're expecting strong top line growth in our business. We're expecting the margins to recover. And when those 2 things happen, we will get back to the cash-generation levels that will enable us to do share repurchases. So we're committed to shareholder-friendly capital allocation practices as we've done in the past, and we're at about -- I think we finished with leverage at 2.3x, excluding restructuring. That's ahead of kind of the 2.0 that the agencies like to see for the single-A rating, and we do remain committed to the single-A rating. So at this point in time, the way the numbers line up, we don't have the cash within the rating to do buybacks, but I very much look forward to being able to get back to doing so.

是的。一旦我們有多餘的現金流，我們就可以這樣做。再說一次，就資本配置而言，我們正處於週期的艱難階段。我們對資本配置的看法沒有任何改變。這些步驟是投資業務，尋求增加股息，我很高興地說我們將連續第 50 年再次這樣做。除此之外，對於剩餘的現金流，我們一直在關注併購。但假設那裡什麼都沒有，那麼它就會去股票回購。所以當利潤率恢復時——讓我從頂部開始，對吧？我們預計我們的業務將實現強勁的收入增長。我們預計利潤率會恢復。當這兩件事發生時，我們將回到現金產生水平，使我們能夠進行股票回購。因此，我們致力於像過去所做的那樣對股東友好的資本分配做法，而且我們大約 - 我認為我們以 2.3 倍的槓桿率結束，不包括重組。這領先於機構希望看到的單 A 評級的 2.0，我們仍然致力於單 A 評級。所以在這個時間點，按照數字排列的方式，我們在評級範圍內沒有現金進行回購，但我非常期待能夠重新這樣做。

Our next question comes from Peter Grom with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Peter Grom。

So just a quick follow-up on Steve's question, I know you don't want to give a specific time frame, but I just want to get some clarification around the comment, which I think was significant gross margin progress in 4Q. Is that simply just margin expansion? Or should we read that comment as a suggestion that the fourth quarter is really when you expect to see margins return closer to those pre-pandemic levels?

所以只是對史蒂夫的問題的快速跟進，我知道你不想給出具體的時間框架，但我只想對評論進行一些澄清，我認為這是第四季度毛利率的顯著進步。這僅僅是利潤擴張嗎？還是我們應該將該評論解讀為暗示第四季度確實是您期望看到利潤率恢復到大流行前水平的時候？

Yes. I think we do expect gross margin progress versus pre-pandemic level to happen faster than on the operating profit line for the investment reasons that we talked about before, but we are expecting to have progress. We're not expecting to be back to pre-pandemic levels. So -- but the actions that we've taken for the environment that we're in and that we think we're going to be in during this year, as those materialize through the P&L during the course of the year, I think we're going to be on a good path if the environment is what we think it is today, which we know that it won't be, because it's too difficult to predict, especially with the volatility. But if it were, if I was able to hold that constant, I think we'd be on a good glide path. But I say that recognizing with the volatility, I just -- it's too difficult to call what the environment will look like and exactly when those margins will hit the pre-pandemic levels. But again, we're taking all the right actions in the business to do that. And we talk a lot about margin, which we're very focused on because we're focused on the overall health of the financial structure of the company, so it's appropriate.

是的。我認為，由於我們之前談到的投資原因，我們確實預計毛利率與大流行前水平相比的進展速度會比營業利潤線更快，但我們預計會有進展。我們預計不會回到大流行前的水平。所以 - 但是我們為我們所處的環境採取的行動以及我們認為我們將在今年內採取的行動，隨著這些行動在一年中通過損益表實現，我認為我們“如果環境是我們今天認為的那樣，那將會走上一條好的道路，我們知道它不會是這樣，因為它太難預測了，尤其是在波動性大的情況下。但如果是這樣的話，如果我能夠保持這個不變，我認為我們會走上一條良好的下滑道路。但我說，認識到波動性，我只是 - 很難說環境會是什麼樣子，以及這些利潤率何時會達到大流行前的水平。但同樣，我們在業務中採取了所有正確的行動來做到這一點。我們經常談論利潤率，我們非常關注這一點，因為我們關注的是公司財務結構的整體健康狀況，所以它是合適的。

I would call out a few things, though, that what -- getting back to Jason's question, what generates the cash so that we can provide healthy returns with actual dollars. So when we look at operating profit growth, that's very important. And I think it's worth noting a few things. First, on margin recovery, we'll get there faster on consumer than we will on professional. Because professional -- today, we had a cost structure that was built for a business that's larger than one it's producing today, and so there's a misalignment between the revenue of the business and the cost structure of the business. We'll get that corrected, but that will take some time. So the margin recovery will come faster on consumer.

不過，我會指出一些事情，那就是——回到傑森的問題，是什麼產生了現金，以便我們可以用實際的美元提供健康的回報。因此，當我們關注營業利潤增長時，這一點非常重要。我認為有幾點值得注意。首先，在利潤率恢復方面，我們將在消費者方面比在專業方面更快地達到目標。因為專業——今天，我們的成本結構是為比現在生產的更大的企業建立的，因此企業的收入和企業的成本結構之間存在不一致。我們會糾正這個問題，但這需要一些時間。因此，消費者的利潤率恢復將更快。

But then going to the profit dollars, I call out in 2021, consumer tissue, for all the reasons that we've talked about, that was 75% of the operating profit decline. So there were very specific dynamics that caused it, it was -- the big driver of the profit decline. But if you look at our personal care business, which is half of our company, strong growth, strong market shares. It actually grew operating profit in the fourth quarter. It also grew in the third quarter. So the second half of the year, the personal care segment, which is very healthy, is actually growing operating profit. And in the near term, I'll take the dollars, recognizing in the long term I have to get the margin structure to the right place. So just thought I'd give a little bit more color by segment there.

但接下來談到利潤，我在 2021 年呼籲消費紙巾，出於我們所討論的所有原因，營業利潤下降了 75%。所以有非常具體的動態導致它，它是 - 利潤下降的主要驅動力。但如果你看看我們的個人護理業務，它占我們公司的一半，增長強勁，市場份額強勁。它實際上在第四季度增加了營業利潤。它在第三季度也有所增長。所以下半年，非常健康的個護板塊，其實運營利潤在增長。在短期內，我將接受美元，從長遠來看，我必須將保證金結構調整到正確的位置。所以只是想我會在那裡逐段提供更多顏色。

No, that's incredibly helpful. And then just completely shifting gears here. I would love to get an update on the performance in the D&E markets, like -- which seemed to perform quite nicely in the quarter. Can you maybe provide a bit more color on kind of the health of the consumer in those regions? Like what is driving the stronger growth, whether it be category or Kimberly-Clark specific? And then I guess on pricing, how have pricing actions been received in those markets versus what you see or what you're seeing in developed markets?

不，這非常有幫助。然後在這裡完全換檔。我很想了解 D&E 市場的最新表現，比如——它在本季度的表現似乎相當不錯。您能否就這些地區消費者的健康狀況提供更多信息？比如是什麼推動了更強勁的增長，無論是類別還是金佰利？然後我想在定價方面，這些市場的定價行為與您在發達市場所看到的或您在發達市場所看到的相比如何？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Peter. Yes, great performance in developing and emerging markets. Overall in the quarter, I think it was in our statement, but organic up 10% in the quarter and 8% for the full year. And that was composed of really a healthy balance of price, volume and mix importantly. And so -- and then we saw solid growth in all regions: high single-digit gains in Asia and Latin America; and double-digit growth in EMEA; and then really strong double-digit growth in China, India, Russia, Eastern Europe and Africa, which are kind of the important future growth markets for us. So we're really excited to see that.

是的。謝謝你的問題，彼得。是的，在發展中市場和新興市場表現出色。總體而言，在本季度，我認為這是在我們的聲明中，但本季度有機增長 10%，全年增長 8%。這是由價格、數量和重要組合的真正健康平衡組成的。如此——然後我們看到所有地區的穩健增長：亞洲和拉丁美洲的高個位數增長；歐洲、中東和非洲地區實現兩位數增長；然後在中國、印度、俄羅斯、東歐和非洲實現兩位數的強勁增長，這些都是我們未來重要的增長市場。所以我們真的很高興看到這一點。

And I think what's driving it is, I've mentioned kind of in my prepared remarks, really, really great innovation. We're doing a really good job. Our teams around the world doing a great job, scaling, really, what I would call breakthrough innovation across markets. We were up multiple share points in Korea in the fourth quarter. That is a version of the Chinese diaper technology that we've put out there, which is related to the diaper technology that we have in North America, which is the same technology that we put out in Australia, which was also up multiple share points. And so I think really, really good consumer-inspired innovation and then superior local market execution around digital, marketing and sales execution. So it's kind of all the things, and they're all working very hard for us. One of our business leaders calls it all oars in the water, meaning we used to be over-reliant on one thing to drive the business. We're really -- part of our commercial capabilities that we're developing is we want everything out there working and working in the same direction. And when we do that, we tend to see the results that we think we're seeing now.

而且我認為推動它的是，我在準備好的評論中提到了一種非常非常偉大的創新。我們做得很好。我們在世界各地的團隊做得很好，擴展了，真的，我稱之為跨市場的突破性創新。我們在第四季度在韓國上漲了多個份額。那是我們在中國推出的尿布技術的一個版本，它與我們在北美的尿布技術有關，這與我們在澳大利亞推出的技術相同，也上升了多個份額.所以我認為非常非常好的受消費者啟發的創新，然後是圍繞數字、營銷和銷售執行的卓越本地市場執行。所以這是所有的事情，他們都在為我們努力工作。我們的一位商業領袖稱這一切都是水中的槳，這意味著我們過去過度依賴一件事來推動業務發展。我們真的 - 我們正在開發的商業能力的一部分是我們希望那裡的一切都朝著同一個方向工作和工作。當我們這樣做時，我們往往會看到我們認為我們現在看到的結果。

Our next question comes from Nik Modi with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Nik Modi。

So just 2 quick questions for me. Just on the upstream innovation agenda, Mike, can you just talk about what's going on there? I mean, has it had to take a backseat, just given all the situations that you've been dealing with, with COVID, et cetera?

所以對我來說只有 2 個簡單的問題。剛剛關於上游創新議程，邁克，你能談談那裡發生了什麼嗎？我的意思是，考慮到你一直在處理的所有情況，比如 COVID 等等，它是否不得不退居二線？

And then we talk a lot about labor and transportation and input costs, but we don't talk a lot about retailer media, which seems to be a growing demand from your customer base. So I was hoping you can provide a little bit of context on that and how that's hitting your P&L.

然後我們談論了很多關於勞動力、運輸和投入成本的話題，但我們很少談論零售商媒體，這似乎是您客戶群不斷增長的需求。所以我希望你能提供一些關於這方面的背景信息，以及它是如何影響你的損益的。

Yes. Okay. Yes. Great questions, Nik. Yes. I think the flavor maybe you could have gotten from Maria's commentary earlier, I mean, we're continuing to invest in the foundational things that are going to make this business healthy for now and the long term. And we recognize we're working through some choppy waters, but we're committed to growing this business for the long term in the right way. And so, yes, so we had not -- we're not pulling back on our innovation investment and our insight and our technology investments. And we're excited about it. And I think the reason you're seeing the results that we're realizing around the world is because we're just doing a better job of scaling big ideas and big innovations that are really grounded in great technologies. And so we're continuing to do that. Maria mentioned the visibility of our pipeline on cost savings is probably better than it's ever been. Well, the visibility of our pipeline of our technology innovations is better than it's ever been, too. And that's one of the things as we -- coming into this role, we wanted the organization to work longer term. And we're here for today, and we're also here for tomorrow and to be able to balance that. And so we're really pleased with that progress. And so -- which is why I would say we're confident that we're going to continue to be able to invest and grow in our businesses, both in personal care, professional and consumer tissue. So that's one.

是的。好的。是的。很好的問題，尼克。是的。我認為也許你可以從 Maria 早些時候的評論中得到這種味道，我的意思是，我們將繼續投資於基礎性的東西，這些東西將使這項業務在現在和長期保持健康。我們認識到我們正在經歷一些波濤洶湧的水域，但我們致力於以正確的方式長期發展這項業務。所以，是的，所以我們沒有——我們沒有撤回我們的創新投資、洞察力和技術投資。我們對此感到興奮。而且我認為你看到我們在世界各地實現的結果的原因是因為我們在擴展真正基於偉大技術的大創意和大創新方面做得更好。所以我們將繼續這樣做。 Maria 提到我們的管道在成本節約方面的可見性可能比以往任何時候都要好。嗯，我們的技術創新管道的知名度也比以往任何時候都好。這是我們的一件事——進入這個角色，我們希望組織能夠長期工作。我們今天在這裡，明天我們也在這裡，並且能夠平衡這一點。因此，我們對這一進展感到非常滿意。所以——這就是為什麼我會說我們有信心繼續投資和發展我們的業務，包括個人護理、專業和消費組織。所以這是一個。

I think with regard to retail media, yes, it is becoming a bigger topic. I will say I feel very good about our digital capability. And we're very disciplined. And we have so much data around -- as Maria mentioned earlier, digital ROI. I mean, we know exactly what it is. We've made significant progress on ROIs over the course of the last 3 or 4 years, and we know what the investments are worth. And so we're very capable -- have the right sort of data, as you might expect, to be able to work with our retailers and make the right investments. And frankly, some of those investments are really, really good for us, and we're really excited to do that with them. And others, we're going to need to see a little more improvement. But overall, I think it's an operational issue and capability that our organization is really well equipped to deal with.

我認為關於零售媒體，是的，它正在成為一個更大的話題。我會說我對我們的數字能力感覺非常好。而且我們非常有紀律。而且我們周圍有很多數據——正如瑪麗亞前面提到的，數字投資回報率。我的意思是，我們確切地知道它是什麼。在過去的 3 或 4 年中，我們在投資回報率方面取得了重大進展，我們知道投資的價值。因此，我們非常有能力 - 正如您所期望的那樣，擁有正確的數據，能夠與我們的零售商合作並進行正確的投資。坦率地說，其中一些投資對我們來說真的非常非常好，我們很高興能與他們一起這樣做。和其他人，我們將需要看到更多的改進。但總的來說，我認為這是我們組織真正有能力處理的運營問題和能力。

At this time, I'm showing no further questions. I'll turn the call back over for closing remarks.

在這個時候，我沒有再提出任何問題。我會將電話轉回以結束髮言。

Okay. Thank you. In closing, I'd like to really reinforce a few key points to my opening remarks. 3 years ago, we launched our strategy to deliver balanced and sustainable growth, and that plan is anchored on our strategy to accelerate top line growth by elevating our categories and expanding our markets. Now to do this, we have invested in our brands and capabilities and our people. This growth is fueled by improvements to our cost base, delivering strong annual productivity through our FORCE and Global Restructuring Programs.

好的。謝謝你。最後，我想真正強調我的開場白的幾個關鍵點。 3 年前，我們啟動了實現平衡和可持續增長的戰略，該計劃以我們通過提升品類和擴大市場來加速收入增長的戰略為基礎。現在要做到這一點，我們已經投資於我們的品牌和能力以及我們的員工。這種增長得益於我們成本基礎的改善，通過我們的 FORCE 和全球重組計劃提供了強大的年生產力。

It's pretty clear we're executing our strategy in a very dynamic environment, and our teams have faced challenges well beyond what we or anyone else had anticipated. But that's our reality, and we expect the volatility in the environment to persist this year. We're committed to our strategy, and we're executing well, evidenced by our growth in personal care, strength in market share performance and the actions we've taken in a very volatile environment. We're excited about the potential of our brands and categories and our ability to develop innovative products that will enhance our portfolio and the value we provide our consumers. We're also committed to restoring our margins and expect to make progress this year. This commodity cycle is clearly different from past cycles, and the time to recover will be elongated due to continued inflation. We're confident in the actions we're taking and in our ability to create meaningful shareholder value over time. I'm especially grateful for the dedication of our talented teams, and we will continue to do all we can to ensure a safe and rewarding work environment in the year ahead.

很明顯，我們正在一個非常動態的環境中執行我們的戰略，我們的團隊面臨的挑戰遠遠超出我們或其他任何人的預期。但這是我們的現實，我們預計今年環境的波動將持續存在。我們致力於我們的戰略，並且執行良好，這從我們在個人護理方面的增長、市場份額表現的實力以及我們在非常動蕩的環境中採取的行動中得到證明。我們對我們的品牌和品類的潛力以及我們開發創新產品的能力感到興奮，這將增強我們的產品組合和我們為消費者提供的價值。我們還致力於恢復我們的利潤率，並希望在今年取得進展。本次商品週期明顯不同於以往的周期，由於持續通脹，復甦的時間將被拉長。我們對我們正在採取的行動以及隨著時間的推移創造有意義的股東價值的能力充滿信心。我特別感謝我們才華橫溢的團隊的奉獻精神，我們將繼續盡我們所能確保來年安全和有益的工作環境。

Thank you all for joining our call today.

感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's teleconference. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你們，女士們，先生們。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。