金百利克拉克 (KMB) 2021 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your patience in holding. We now have your presenters in conference. (Operator Instructions)

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的耐心等待。我們現在有您的演講者參加會議。 （操作員說明）

It is now my pleasure to introduce today's first presenter, Taryn Miller, VP of Finance and Interim Head of Investor Relations.

現在我很高興介紹今天的第一位演講者，財務副總裁兼投資者關係臨時主管 Taryn Miller。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Kimberly-Clark's Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. On the call with me today are Mike Hsu, our Chairman and CEO; and Maria Henry, our CFO.

謝謝大家，大家早上好。歡迎參加金佰利第二季度收益電話會議。今天與我通話的是我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Mike Hsu；和我們的首席財務官 Maria Henry。

Earlier this morning, we issued our earnings news release, and we also published prepared management remarks from Mike and Maria to summarize our second quarter results and full year 2021 outlook. Both documents are available on the Investors section of our website. We hope you find it valuable to have prepared remarks ahead of this call. In just a moment, Mike will share a few opening comments and then we'll take your questions.

今天早上早些時候，我們發布了我們的收益新聞稿，我們還發布了 Mike 和 Maria 準備好的管理層評論，以總結我們的第二季度業績和 2021 年全年展望。這兩份文件都可以在我們網站的“投資者”部分找到。我們希望您發現在此電話會議之前準備好評論很有價值。稍後，Mike 將分享一些開場評論，然後我們將回答您的問題。

During this call, we will make forward-looking statements. Please see the Risk Factors section of our latest annual report on Form 10-K for further discussion of forward-looking statements. We may also refer to adjusted results and outlook. Both exclude certain items described in this morning's news release. The release has further information about these adjustments and reconciliations to comparable GAAP financial measures.

在本次電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述。有關前瞻性陳述的進一步討論，請參閱我們最新的 10-K 表格年度報告的風險因素部分。我們也可能會參考調整後的結果和展望。兩者都排除了今天上午新聞稿中描述的某些項目。該新聞稿包含有關這些調整和與可比 GAAP 財務措施的對賬的更多信息。

Now I'll turn it over to Mike.

現在我將把它交給邁克。

Okay. Thank you, Taryn. Good morning, everyone. Before we get into the Q&A, I'd like to offer some additional perspective on our performance. Clearly, our results did not turn out as we expected, and we knew it was a tough comp, given our strong growth and record profitability in the year-ago quarter. Now while we expected volatility this year, the external environment has proven to be even more volatile than our expectation at the beginning of the year and versus our April update.

好的。謝謝你，泰林。大家，早安。在我們進入問答環節之前，我想對我們的表現提供一些額外的看法。顯然，我們的結果並沒有達到我們的預期，而且我們知道這是一個艱難的競爭，因為我們在去年同期的強勁增長和創紀錄的盈利能力。現在，雖然我們預計今年會出現波動，但事實證明，外部環境的波動性甚至比我們年初的預期和我們 4 月份的更新還要大。

Since we spoke in April, commodity inflation has spiked higher and our supply chain has been challenged. These dynamics are impacting us and, more broadly, the industry. We're also navigating historic levels of demand volatility in consumer tissue. Last year, we worked really hard to support our consumers and our customers as demand increased at a record pace. While we expected the category to retract this year, that decline has meaningfully outpaced our expectations. This has been driven by reduced at-home consumption due to increased mobility and destocking of both consumer pantries and retailer inventory.

自從我們在 4 月份發表講話以來，商品通脹飆升，我們的供應鏈受到了挑戰。這些動態影響著我們，更廣泛地說，影響著整個行業。我們也在探索消費紙巾需求波動的歷史水平。去年，隨著需求以創紀錄的速度增長，我們非常努力地支持我們的消費者和客戶。雖然我們預計該類別今年會收回，但這種下降明顯超出了我們的預期。這是由於流動性增加以及消費者食品儲藏室和零售商庫存減少導致家庭消費減少所致。

Consumer tissue has historically been very stable and we expect demand to normalize over time. We remain confident in our brand fundamentals even as we acknowledge that the short-term tissue outlook has been difficult to call. We've taken decisive action to offset the impact of raw material inflation. We have announced pricing in key markets around the world. Our pricing actions are on track, and we expect to fully offset the effects of input cost inflation over time as we've done in previous cycles.

消費用紙在歷史上一直非常穩定，我們預計需求會隨著時間的推移而正常化。儘管我們承認短期衛生紙前景難以預測，但我們仍然對我們的品牌基本面充滿信心。我們已採取果斷行動來抵消原材料通脹的影響。我們已經公佈了全球主要市場的定價。我們的定價行動步入正軌，我們希望隨著時間的推移完全抵消投入成本膨脹的影響，就像我們在之前的周期中所做的那樣。

We've also taken prudent steps to control and reduce discretionary spend across the business. We expect this to be reflected in our results as we continue to implement these actions. We view this level of input cost inflation and the COVID-driven demand volatility to be discrete issues. We will continue to take appropriate action to reduce the impact of volatility over time.

我們還採取了謹慎的措施來控制和減少整個企業的可自由支配支出。隨著我們繼續實施這些行動，我們希望這將反映在我們的結果中。我們認為這種投入成本通脹水平和 COVID 驅動的需求波動是離散的問題。隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續採取適當的行動來減少波動的影響。

At the same time, we remain confident and committed to our approach to building brands. Despite near-term challenges, we have plenty of bright spots in our business. Our strategy to invest in our brand is working. You can see this in our second quarter results broadly across personal care and especially in D&E markets. Excluding North American consumer tissue, our organic sales were up 4%. Personal care organic sales were up 6% globally, driven by a 4% volume increase. In D&E markets, personal care organic sales were up 8%, with very strong market share performance, including in China, Brazil, throughout Eastern Europe, India, Peru and South Africa. We've recently captured #1 diaper share positions in China and Brazil, which reflects the strength of our brand fundamentals with consumers.

同時，我們對建立品牌的方法充滿信心並致力於。儘管近期面臨挑戰，但我們的業務仍有很多亮點。我們投資品牌的戰略正在奏效。您可以在我們的第二季度業績中看到這一點，該業績廣泛涉及個人護理領域，尤其是在 D&E 市場。不包括北美消費者組織，我們的有機銷售額增長了 4%。在銷量增長 4% 的推動下，全球個人護理有機銷售額增長了 6%。在 D&E 市場，個人護理有機銷售額增長了 8%，市場份額表現非常強勁，包括中國、巴西、整個東歐、印度、秘魯和南非。我們最近在中國和巴西佔據了尿布份額第一的位置，這反映了我們在消費者中的品牌基礎實力。

Importantly, we're starting to see green shoots in K-C Professional. The business grew year-over-year and sequentially as we saw strength in international markets and positive trends in washroom products. As more companies transition back to in-person environments, we expect KCP momentum to improve in the back half.

重要的是，我們開始在 K-C Professional 中看到新芽。由於我們看到國際市場的實力和洗手間產品的積極趨勢，該業務同比增長並連續增長。隨著越來越多的公司過渡回面對面的環境，我們預計 KCP 的勢頭將在後半段有所改善。

We're encouraged by our underlying brand performance and have made significant progress in addressing the supply challenges we faced earlier this year in our North American personal care business. Looking forward to the second half, we are expecting better results across the business. We believe the major factors impacting this quarter do not reflect the fundamental health of our business. We remain committed to our strategy to deliver balanced and sustainable growth for the long term. We'll continue to execute K-C Strategy 2022, and we'll invest in our business for the future. This includes investments in innovation, commercial capabilities and technology.

我們對我們的潛在品牌表現感到鼓舞，並在解決我們今年早些時候在北美個人護理業務中面臨的供應挑戰方面取得了重大進展。展望下半年，我們期待整個業務取得更好的成績。我們認為影響本季度的主要因素並未反映我們業務的基本健康狀況。我們將繼續致力於實現長期平衡和可持續增長的戰略。我們將繼續執行 2022 年 K-C 戰略，並為未來投資我們的業務。這包括對創新、商業能力和技術的投資。

Importantly, I also want to emphasize that we are acutely aware of the impact that this pandemic continues to have on our employees, our consumers and our partners and the world. We will continue to prioritize the health and safety of our people and all that interact with Kimberly-Clark.

重要的是，我還想強調，我們敏銳地意識到這種流行病繼續對我們的員工、消費者、合作夥伴和世界產生影響。我們將繼續優先考慮我們員工以及所有與金佰利互動的人的健康和安全。

Now with that, we'd like to address your questions.

現在，我們想解決您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Lauren Lieberman。

Wanted to first, to start with, I think, the biggest question, which is relatively short term, but is the guidance reduction for this year. And I think it'd be helpful for everyone to just hear a bit about your degree of confidence that like, this is it, right? The environment's been incredibly volatile. But as you look forward from here, to what degree have you built in flexibility for things to perhaps worsen? So I think that's sort of an important starting point. And along with that, within the inflation basket, what has been the biggest delta versus when you last communicated an outlook for the guidance to the Street back in April?

首先，我認為最大的問題是，這是相對短期的，但是是今年的指導性下調。而且我認為每個人都可以聽到一些關於你的自信程度的信息，比如，就是這樣，對吧？環境非常不穩定。但是，當您從這裡向前看時，您在多大程度上建立了靈活性以使事情可能惡化？所以我認為這是一個重要的起點。除此之外，在通脹籃子中，與您上次在 4 月份向華爾街傳達指引前景時相比，最大的增量是多少？

Got it. Thanks, Lauren. Yes, a couple of things. I'll start with the outlook and I'll ask Maria to provide a little more color. But first of all, I'll just say, overall, my view on the outlook is it reflects certainly, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, significant changes in that external environment that we, here, view as being discrete issues and that really -- that we're managing and fully managing, I would say.

知道了。謝謝，勞倫。是的，有幾件事。我將從前景開始，我會要求 Maria 提供更多顏色。但首先，我只想說，總體而言，我對前景的看法是，正如我在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，它肯定反映了外部環境的重大變化，我們在這裡將其視為離散問題，並且確實——我想說，我們正在管理和完全管理。

The 2 issues that we're talking about are, one, raw material inflation and then the consumer tissue demand changes, particularly in North America. And if you add it up, Lauren, year-on-year, if you add those 2, it's well over $3 of EPS on a year-over-year basis. So it's a pretty significant increase. Obviously, given that amount and given our outlook, we are covering a significant portion of that, but we can't practically cover all of that this year, all right?

我們談論的兩個問題是，一是原材料通脹，然後是消費紙巾需求的變化，尤其是在北美。勞倫，如果你把它加起來，如果你把這兩個加起來，那麼每股收益的同比增長就遠遠超過 3 美元。所以這是一個非常顯著的增長。顯然，考慮到這個數量和我們的前景，我們涵蓋了其中的很大一部分，但我們今年實際上無法涵蓋所有這些，好嗎？

And so what I would say is Part 1, our pricing implementation is largely on track and we expect to fully offset inflation over time, not all this year but over time. And then the North American consumer tissue volatility is COVID-driven, and I view that as more episodic in nature or temporary in nature, and I think the team is doing a very good job navigating it. But certainly, Lauren, it's a little tougher managing shortfalls in the category versus some of the gains that we went up against last year. And so those are, I think, 2 that I would say are discrete issues.

所以我要說的是第 1 部分，我們的定價實施基本上走上了正軌，我們希望隨著時間的推移完全抵消通貨膨脹，不是今年，而是隨著時間的推移。然後北美消費者組織的波動是由 COVID 驅動的，我認為這在本質上更具偶發性或暫時性，我認為團隊在導航方面做得非常好。但可以肯定的是，勞倫，與我們去年取得的一些收益相比，管理該類別的不足要困難一些。因此，我認為 2 我會說這些是離散的問題。

The big delta on the commodities, perhaps that's less visible to all of you, is the polymer resin side of the business, right? So you could see the -- you could track the eucalyptus prices which have kind of remained in the space that we've called. But what's really escalated is resin, which I think for the full year, our estimate, it will be up almost 100% at -- certainly at historic highs for us. And that should abate at some point, but I think it's -- initially, we thought that was going to come down some in the back half, but it looks like the highs are staying high longer. And so that does reflect some of the pricing that we've taken.

商品的大三角洲，也許你們所有人都不太清楚，是聚合物樹脂的業務，對吧？所以你可以看到 - 你可以追踪桉樹的價格，這些價格一直在我們所說的空間中。但真正升級的是樹脂，我認為全年，我們估計，它將上漲近 100%——對我們來說肯定處於歷史高位。這應該會在某個時候減弱，但我認為它是 - 最初，我們認為後半部分會下降一些，但看起來高點會持續更長時間。所以這確實反映了我們採取的一些定價。

So overall, I think those are really the 2 big issues. I do really want to point out, Lauren, that our brands are fundamentally very healthy, and we continue to see really robust growth around the world in both organic and in share. And even we're really, really pleased with our North American personal care recovery, although we are a little light on share, I would say almost all of that is related to supply issues.

所以總的來說，我認為這確實是兩個大問題。勞倫，我真的想指出，我們的品牌從根本上說是非常健康的，我們繼續看到全球範圍內的有機增長和份額增長非常強勁。即使我們對北美個人護理業務的複蘇感到非常非常滿意，儘管我們對份額有些了解，但我想說幾乎所有這些都與供應問題有關。

We still undershipped orders significantly in the quarter despite being positive on organic growth in the quarter. And so we feel good about where the business is and where our brand fundamentals are, and we're expecting a stronger Q3 in our personal care business. But maybe, Maria, do you want to add some color?

儘管對本季度的有機增長持積極態度，但我們本季度的訂單仍顯著不足。因此，我們對業務狀況和品牌基礎狀況感到滿意，我們預計第三季度的個人護理業務將更加強勁。但也許，瑪麗亞，你想添加一些顏色嗎？

Yes, sure. I'll -- on your first question, Lauren, about the full year outlook, we've been wrong twice now. And so it's an incredibly dynamic environment that we're operating in and the changes versus our expectations are clearly on the input cost side as well as how the consumer tissue category in North America has unfolded here.

是的，當然。我會 - 關於你的第一個問題，勞倫，關於全年展望，我們現在已經錯了兩次。因此，我們所處的環境非常動態，與我們預期相比的變化顯然是在投入成本方面，以及北美的消費紙巾類別如何在這裡展開。

So when I think about the guidance range that we've provided, we have 6 months left to go in the year, and there's $0.25 still in the range, and I don't like to take guidance down ever. And since we've done it twice, you can rest assured that the guidance that we provided is both thoughtful and based on the trends that we see, allowing for some ranges, given how dynamic this current environment is.

因此，當我考慮我們提供的指導範圍時，今年我們還有 6 個月的時間，而且該範圍內仍有 0.25 美元，我不喜歡降低指導。由於我們已經做過兩次，您可以放心，我們提供的指導既深思熟慮，又基於我們看到的趨勢，考慮到當前環境的動態性，允許一些範圍。

And then on the outlook for operating margin compared to 3 months ago, a couple of the things that I'd call out: higher commodity costs, lower volumes in consumer tissue. And along with these lower volumes, there's associated fixed cost absorption. The tissue business generally runs at very high utilization rates and has high fixed costs, and the actions that we've taken to offset that also go into our outlook, which include higher cost savings and reduced between-the-lines spending.

然後是與 3 個月前相比的營業利潤率前景，我要指出的幾件事是：商品成本上升，消費紙巾數量減少。除了這些較低的數量外，還有相關的固定成本吸收。衛生紙業務通常以非常高的利用率運行並且具有高固定成本，我們為抵消這一點而採取的行動也體現在我們的前景中，其中包括更高的成本節約和生產線間支出的減少。

Okay, great. And Maria, when I look forward, I mean, it feels maybe a bit early, but to look forward into next year, as I think about the headwinds that you faced year-to-date from those higher manufacturing costs, be it a combination of the storm impact in Q1 and really more materially, the negative operating leverage, like the absorption on tissue, I mean, as we look into '22, simply the absence of those factors, if you just go back to a more normalized demand environment for tissue, right, those should be -- they should just go away next year. I mean is there anything I'm missing as I think about that kind of impact to profitability from operating leverage and higher manufacturing costs looking into next year and as we start to compare against these periods?

好，太棒了。瑪麗亞，當我展望未來時，我的意思是，感覺可能有點早，但展望明年，當我想到你今年迄今為止因製造成本較高而面臨的不利因素時，無論是綜合第一季度的風暴影響以及更實質性的負面運營槓桿，比如對紙巾的吸收，我的意思是，當我們回顧 22 年時，如果你回到更正常的需求環境，這些因素就根本沒有對於組織，對，那些應該是 - 他們應該在明年消失。我的意思是，當我考慮到明年的運營槓桿和更高的製造成本對盈利能力的影響以及我們開始與這些時期進行比較時，我是否遺漏了什麼？

Yes. I'll say 2 things. It's very tempting to talk about 2022, given where we are with this year and the very unusual dynamics that we're facing. I'm going to resist that temptation as the environment's been quite dynamic. And I think we're best off waiting to see another 6 months before we call 2022, given that the macro factors are moving so much. But that said, Lauren, the way you're thinking about it is correct.

是的。我會說2件事。考慮到我們今年所處的位置以及我們面臨的非常不尋常的動態，談論 2022 年非常誘人。我要抵制這種誘惑，因為環境非常活躍。而且我認為，鑑於宏觀因素的變化如此之大，我們最好再等 6 個月再到 2022 年。但這就是說，勞倫，你的想法是正確的。

Our next question comes from Dara Mohsenian with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Dara Mohsenian。

So Mike, you mentioned you expect to be able to fully offset the cost pressures with pricing over time. Is that with just pricing alone, to be clear, or does that include other areas like cost savings? And just given the inflation is unprecedented this year, do you think you have pricing in place by year-end to fully offset those cost pressures? Or might it take a longer period of time to realize the pricing necessary and sort of a couple of rounds of price increases? How do you think about that? And I'm particularly focused on how you think about pricing, just given the magnitude of that inflation is much worse than it typically is when you take pricing.

所以邁克，你提到你希望能夠隨著時間的推移通過定價來完全抵消成本壓力。明確地說，這僅僅是定價，還是包括其他領域，如成本節約？鑑於今年的通貨膨脹是前所未有的，您認為您是否在年底前製定了定價以完全抵消這些成本壓力？或者可能需要更長的時間來實現必要的定價和幾輪價格上漲？你怎麼看？我特別關注你對定價的看法，只是考慮到通脹的幅度比你定價時的通常情況要糟糕得多。

Yes, Dara, it's a great question. I would say yes and yes. I'm not trying to be flip. But I would say, one, generally, we've taken really broad-based pricing action globally, almost -- I wouldn't say all markets, but in nearly all key markets and pretty extensive. The price -- and the pricing ranges from mid-single digit to high single digit, in some cases, double digits, right? And so pretty extensive pricing.

是的，達拉，這是一個很好的問題。我會說是的，是的。我不是想翻轉。但我想說，一般來說，我們在全球範圍內採取了非常廣泛的定價行動，幾乎 - 我不會說所有市場，而是幾乎所有關鍵市場，而且相當廣泛。價格——定價範圍從中個位數到高個位數，在某些情況下，是兩位數，對吧？如此廣泛的定價。

Obviously, we couldn't recover all of that, given timing because we announced in March, generally implemented in June or in beginning of the third quarter, so we'll get a half year run on the pricing and then a full year as we get into next year. That said, commodities have continued to move. But even as we announced our pricing to our -- Part 2 of pricing is we remain committed to leveraging our revenue growth management capability. And there's a lot of other levers that we can pull beyond list to continue to manage pricing in our environment and we're committed to doing that. So that's Part 1.

顯然，鑑於時間安排，我們無法恢復所有這些，因為我們在 3 月宣布，通常在 6 月或第三季度初實施，所以我們將在定價上運行半年，然後是全年，因為我們進入明年。也就是說，大宗商品繼續波動。但是，即使我們向我們宣布定價——定價的第 2 部分，我們仍然致力於利用我們的收入增長管理能力。還有很多其他的槓桿，我們可以超越列表來繼續管理我們環境中的定價，我們致力於這樣做。這就是第 1 部分。

I do think kind of given where we are, and I think it's normal and reasonable to expect that, we're also going to leverage our cost savings program. I mean we have a very strong program, as you're well aware, on force and we've kind of beefed that up over the course of the past year or so and we feel good about that. And so we'll continue to leverage that.

我確實認為考慮到我們所處的位置，我認為這是正常和合理的預期，我們還將利用我們的成本節約計劃。我的意思是我們有一個非常強大的計劃，正如你所知道的那樣，我們在過去一年左右的時間裡加強了這一點，我們對此感覺很好。因此，我們將繼續利用這一點。

So overall, again, I think the answer is yes on both. The bigger thing, Dara, is we do recognize the impact of raw material inflation over time. In our categories, they tend to be a little more volatile. And we're -- a fundamental underpinning of our strategy is margin improvement. And so because of that, we believe we really have to, on an ongoing basis, offset the effect of inflation over time.

所以總的來說，我認為兩者的答案都是肯定的。更重要的是，達拉，我們確實認識到隨著時間的推移原材料通脹的影響。在我們的類別中，它們往往更不穩定。而且我們 - 我們戰略的一個基本基礎是利潤率的提高。正因為如此，我們相信我們確實必須在持續的基礎上，隨著時間的推移抵消通貨膨脹的影響。

Okay. And just one follow-up on the pricing front, where you have implemented pricing so far, what's the retailer reaction and receptivity been like? And it'd be early to judge consumer receptivity, but obviously, some pretty large price increases in your portfolio. So just any thoughts on the ability of consumers to handle that higher pricing and impact on market share, and any thoughts there on what we might see going forward would be helpful.

好的。僅在定價方面進行了一次跟進，到目前為止您已經實施了定價，零售商的反應和接受度如何？現在判斷消費者的接受程度還為時過早，但很明顯，您的投資組合中價格上漲幅度相當大。因此，任何關於消費者處理更高定價和對市場份額影響的能力的想法，以及對我們未來可能看到的任何想法都會有所幫助。

Yes. Look, we never take pricing actions lightly, and we know they can be stressful for both the retailer and our consumers and their shoppers. So we think hard about that. I will say, we believe our pricing actions globally are generally on track. And I think broadly, the retailer conversations, though never easy, I would say, have been largely constructive. And certainly, they understand what's happening in the cost environment and so we're working through that.

是的。看，我們從不輕率地採取定價行動，我們知道它們會給零售商、我們的消費者和他們的購物者帶來壓力。所以我們認真考慮。我會說，我們相信我們在全球範圍內的定價行動總體上是在正軌的。從廣義上講，我認為與零售商的對話雖然絕非易事，但在很大程度上是建設性的。當然，他們了解成本環境中正在發生的事情，因此我們正在努力解決這個問題。

And then I think from an execution perspective, our teams have done a phenomenal job executing rapidly around the world. I would say in terms of other brands, I would say, generally, we've seen a lot of the other brands move in a similar direction. I wouldn't say identical, but directionally in that same place. But the execution of other brands and private label tends to vary market by market. And so some will lag a bit more, but I would say, generally, we feel like our pricing actions are on track.

然後我認為從執行的角度來看，我們的團隊在全球範圍內快速執行了一項非凡的工作。我想說就其他品牌而言，我想說，一般來說，我們已經看到很多其他品牌朝著類似的方向發展。我不會說相同，而是在同一個地方定向。但其他品牌和自有品牌的執行往往因市場而異。所以有些會滯後一點，但我想說，一般來說，我們覺得我們的定價行動正在走上正軌。

Our next question comes from Kevin Grundy with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Kevin Grundy。

A question for you, Mike, on advertising and marketing. So it looks like you did decide to defer some investments, which is unsurprising in the current environment. I think the intention was clearly not to do that. Maybe, Mike, just spend a moment on where you decided to pull back and why? And then just -- I know this is difficult, we can appreciate that in the current environment, but balancing appropriate levels of investment behind your best and highest return ideas with the current commodity cost environment. And then I have a follow-up.

邁克，關於廣告和營銷的問題。因此，看起來您確實決定推遲一些投資，這在當前環境中不足為奇。我認為意圖顯然不是那樣做。也許，邁克，花點時間談談你決定退出的地方，為什麼？然後只是 - 我知道這很困難，我們可以在當前環境中理解這一點，但要在當前商品成本環境中平衡最佳和最高回報想法背後的適當投資水平。然後我有一個跟進。

Yes. So overall, the thing about it, and when I say our challenges are kind of discrete, the challenges, as I'll remind you, I'm sure you remember, Kevin, is like the inflation in North American tissue. In the balance of our markets, our businesses are performing very well and generally above plan. And so I would say maybe the thing I'll land with you is despite our near-term challenges, we're really focused on improving our long-term growth profile. We're really confident that our balanced sustainable approach to building brands is working and that the brand fundamentals globally are very healthy and that we're improving our market positions.

是的。所以總的來說，關於它的事情，當我說我們的挑戰有點離散時，我會提醒你，我相信你記得，凱文，挑戰就像北美組織的通貨膨脹。在我們的市場平衡中，我們的業務表現非常好，並且總體上高於計劃。所以我想說的是，儘管我們近期面臨挑戰，但我們真正專注於改善我們的長期增長狀況。我們非常有信心，我們建立品牌的平衡可持續方法正在奏效，全球品牌基礎非常健康，我們正在改善我們的市場地位。

We were up in share in about -- by our tracking, about 2/3 of our market category combinations in the quarter and so we feel good about that. And the brands continue to respond well to strong investment. I mean we had multi-share point gains in infant child care across China, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, in India, Indonesia, Eastern Europe, Argentina, Peru, pretty much double-digit growth in Brazil. So we feel good about the overall performance of the business. So because of that, we're really maintaining investment where that's working and where the businesses are on plan.

根據我們的跟踪，我們在本季度大約 2/3 的市場類別組合中的份額有所上升，因此我們對此感覺良好。這些品牌繼續對強勁的投資反應良好。我的意思是，我們在中國、韓國、澳大利亞、新西蘭、印度、印度尼西亞、東歐、阿根廷、秘魯的嬰兒托兒服務取得了多個份額的增長，巴西幾乎實現了兩位數的增長。因此，我們對業務的整體表現感覺良好。因此，正因為如此，我們真的在有效的地方和計劃中的地方保持投資。

We have dialed back in some markets. You can assume, for example, in North American bath tissue, given that the fluctuation in the category, we have chosen to pull back a little bit on the spending. And we're going to continue to do that. We're going to operate with discipline. I think we talked about it in the prior quarters, but there is as much a mass component to our advertising program as there is a creative component, and we're pretty disciplined. It's kind of how we manage all of our consumer investments, whether that's trade or marketing. And so we're pretty disciplined on the ROI. And so our teams are reacting as you would probably hope that they would.

我們已經回撥了一些市場。你可以假設，例如在北美的浴巾紙，鑑於品類的波動，我們選擇了在支出上拉回一點。我們將繼續這樣做。我們將有紀律地運作。我認為我們在前幾個季度討論過它，但我們的廣告計劃中的大眾成分與創意成分一樣多，而且我們非常自律。這是我們管理所有消費者投資的方式，無論是貿易還是營銷。所以我們在投資回報率上非常自律。因此，我們的團隊正在做出您可能希望他們會做出的反應。

Maria, do you have anything to add there?

瑪麗亞，你有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. The only thing I'll add is if you look at our full year outlook, what's the thought on advertising is that it's down somewhat to 2020 for the reasons Mike just discussed, but it's well ahead of 2019 on a dollar basis.

是的。我唯一要補充的是，如果你看看我們的全年展望，對廣告的看法是，由於邁克剛才討論的原因，它在某種程度上下降到了 2020 年，但以美元計算，它遠遠早於 2019 年。

Got it. One quick follow-up for both of you. Just on capital allocation and M&A, we saw that the buyback outlook came down with a lower earnings outlook. But when you're going through the type of environment you're going through now, you can't say pricing fast enough and even sort of leaning in and getting the organization behind productivity is still not enough to offset the sort of commodity cost pressure. Does it sort of give you pause with respect to the M&A strategy over time? And the school of thought that the company should look to diversify the portfolio away from some of these commodity sensitive categories and do that in a disciplined and accretive way? So your thoughts there would be helpful then I'll pass it on.

知道了。為你們兩個快速跟進。僅在資本配置和併購方面，我們看到回購前景隨著盈利前景的下降而下降。但是，當您經歷現在正在經歷的環境類型時，您不能說定價足夠快，甚至有點傾向於讓組織支持生產力仍然不足以抵消那種商品成本壓力.隨著時間的推移，它是否會讓您對併購策略有所猶豫？公司應該尋求多元化的投資組合，遠離這些商品敏感類別，並以有紀律和增值的方式做到這一點？所以你的想法會有幫助，然後我會傳遞給你。

Yes. We're always looking at acquisition or M&A opportunities, right? And whether that means additions to the portfolio or subtractions to the portfolio. Certainly, you saw that last year with Softex, which continues to be a really exciting opportunity for us and that business is performing very, very well, by the way, up in the teens, up multiple share points in the quarter. So we're super excited about that.

是的。我們一直在尋找收購或併購機會，對嗎？以及這是否意味著增加投資組合或減少投資組合。當然，您去年在 Softex 上看到了這一點，這對我們來說仍然是一個非常令人興奮的機會，而且該業務的表現非常非常好，順便說一下，在十幾歲時，本季度上漲了多個份額。所以我們對此感到非常興奮。

Given where you are, I think we'll continue to look for opportunity to enhance the portfolio. And certainly, on both the plus, whether it's attractive markets or attractive categories. But also, we're going to continue to look hard at our performance of our existing categories and businesses that don't add to our overall growth profile or aren't going to be ongoingly accretive to our business, we're going to take a hard look at it. And so again, we manage capital with incredible rigor and discipline. And hopefully, that's what our investors will appreciate about our approach.

鑑於您的位置，我認為我們將繼續尋找機會來增強投資組合。當然，無論是有吸引力的市場還是有吸引力的類別，這兩個方面都是有利的。而且，我們將繼續努力審視我們現有類別和業務的表現，這些類別和業務不會增加我們的整體增長概況或不會持續增加我們的業務，我們將採取仔細一看。同樣，我們以令人難以置信的嚴謹和紀律管理資本。希望這就是我們的投資者對我們方法的欣賞。

Yes. And on the buyback specifically, our -- at the midpoint of our guidance, our operating profit now expected to be down $450 million year-over-year. And you'll recall that in January, when we were coming into the year that our target for buybacks, we were expecting operating profit to be up slightly. So with the reduced cash flow coming into the business, that's really what's behind the reduction of $250 million to $300 million on the share buybacks.

是的。特別是在回購方面，在我們指導的中點，我們的營業利潤現在預計將同比下降 4.5 億美元。你會記得，在一月份，當我們進入回購目標的那一年時，我們預計營業利潤會略有上升。因此，隨著流入業務的現金流減少，這就是股票回購減少 2.5 億至 3 億美元的真正原因。

And then in terms of capital allocation, we also trimmed our CapEx plans for the year by $100 million, and we remain committed to the single-A credit rating and to make all of that work after having leaned into it with the restructuring as well as the acquisition of Softex. That's how we make all of that math work.

然後在資本配置方面，我們還將今年的資本支出計劃削減了 1 億美元，我們仍然致力於單一 A 信用評級，並在通過重組以及收購 Softex。這就是我們如何使所有這些數學工作。

Our next question comes from Chris Carey with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行證券公司的 Chris Carey。

So I just want to actually touch on the consumer tissue outlook for the back half of the year. It seems to me that the kind of the important part to making the outlook work, but at the same time, you had noted, that's an area that's been a little tougher to call. And I guess, I'm trying to understand maybe just a little bit of the confidence around the normalization, which you had noted in your prepared remarks.

所以我只想談談今年下半年的消費紙巾前景。在我看來，使前景工作的重要部分，但與此同時，你已經註意到，這是一個有點難以調用的領域。我想，我試圖理解你在準備好的評論中提到的關於標準化的一點點信心。

It seems to me that market share has really peaked during COVID, maybe some capacity benefits and that you just -- you've seen some reversion in market share back to crossover levels. And so if you kind of run it flat to 2, 3 years ago, it's sort of unchanged. And I guess what I'm getting at is just what exactly you think is occurring in that business and just maybe specifically, the types of things that you're seeing that give you confidence in this reacceleration in that business in the back half, which again to me seems to be kind of the important factor in making the full year outlook work.

在我看來，市場份額在 COVID 期間確實達到了頂峰，也許是一些容量優勢，而且你只是 - 你已經看到市場份額恢復到交叉水平。所以如果你把它平放在2、3年前，它是沒有變化的。而且我想我所了解的正是您認為該業務中正在發生的事情，也許具體而言，您所看到的事物類型使您對後半部該業務的重新加速充滿信心，這對我來說，這似乎是使全年展望發揮作用的重要因素。

Okay. Yes, great question, Chris. And I'll try to unpack it and we can go back and forth on this a little bit. First, let me just say, I remain very confident in our North American tissue business. And we've got great brands performed very well last year. I do think we have given back some share this year. What happened last year when the category spiked, and at this point last year, I think the category was up about 30% or so. Consumers were looking for tissue and our customers were looking for tissue. And so our organization really moved aggressively to try to serve our customers and consumers at a point where we felt like they needed us the most. And so we really pulled out all the stops.

好的。是的，很好的問題，克里斯。我會試著打開它，我們可以來回討論一下。首先，我只想說，我對我們的北美衛生紙業務仍然非常有信心。去年我們的優秀品牌表現非常出色。我確實認為我們今年已經回饋了一些份額。去年當這個類別飆升時發生了什麼，去年這個時候，我認為這個類別增長了大約 30% 左右。消費者在尋找紙巾，而我們的客戶也在尋找紙巾。因此，我們的組織確實採取了積極行動，試圖在我們覺得他們最需要我們的時候為我們的客戶和消費者服務。所以我們真的全力以赴。

We probably did gain a little bit of share, particularly on a brand like Continental, where we had a little more availability than maybe some of the other brands in the marketplace. And so it looks like to us, while our share is down a bit this year, I do think it's kind of reverted maybe to the prior year levels to some degree. And we'll continue to go forward and earn our share growth over time on that business. But we feel like our brands are healthy, but we are navigating what I would say is like the most volatile part of the demand curve that we experienced last year. So the front half is where all the spikes in demand.

我們可能確實獲得了一點份額，特別是在像大陸集團這樣的品牌上，我們可能比市場上的其他一些品牌有更多的可用性。所以在我們看來，雖然今年我們的份額有所下降，但我確實認為它在某種程度上可能會恢復到前一年的水平。我們將繼續前進，並隨著時間的推移在該業務上贏得我們的份額增長。但我們覺得我們的品牌是健康的，但我們正在導航我所說的就像我們去年經歷的需求曲線中最不穩定的部分。所以前半部分是所有需求高峰的地方。

And so there were really 2 effects: there was the spike in consumer demand and then there was a corollary effect on retailer supply. And so maybe the 1 disconnect that you might not have visibility to the data are the category in the quarter in North America, and I'm talking back tissue specifically, was down 12% in consumption, okay? And then our shipments were down about 27%. And so the difference between the 12% and the 27% is really, for us, we estimate as retailer inventory changes.

所以實際上有兩個影響：消費者需求激增，然後對零售商供應產生了必然影響。因此，您可能無法看到數據的第一個脫節是北美該季度的類別，我具體說的是紙巾，消費量下降了 12%，好嗎？然後我們的出貨量下降了大約 27%。因此，對於我們來說，12% 和 27% 之間的差異實際上是隨著零售商庫存的變化而估計的。

And what happened last year on the inventory side was, I think exiting Q1 where there was the big spike, retailer inventories as a percent, if I index it to historical levels or 2019 levels, had dropped down to below 40% of what, I would say, the traditional turn inventory. And so retailers worked really hard to get back in the supply. And so by the end of the year or toward the back half of the year, they were well north of 100% of overall levels. And so as we entered into this year, our estimate would be retailer inventories were probably in the 130%, 140% range. And so that's dialed back in the first and second quarter this year. And so it explains kind of a big chunk of the delta here on demand.

去年在庫存方面發生的事情是，我認為退出 Q1 時出現大幅飆升，零售商庫存百分比，如果我將其指數到歷史水平或 2019 年水平，已降至低於 40%，我會說，傳統的轉盤點。因此，零售商非常努力地恢復供應。因此，到今年年底或下半年，它們遠低於總體水平的 100%。因此，當我們進入今年時，我們估計零售商的庫存可能在 130%、140% 的範圍內。因此，這在今年第一季度和第二季度有所回升。因此，它按需解釋了這裡的大部分增量。

Looking forward, again, I'll stand by it. I mean, I looked at this category for a long time and it's one of the biggest categories. Obviously, if you think about back tissue in particular, it's a very stable category. And so the logic for me is in a post-COVID world, I think there will be more people at home on an ongoing basis than there were pre-COVID. I don't think the office environment or the work environment is ever going back to 100% every day. And so logic would say consumption should be a little higher than the base level of '19.

再次期待，我會堅持下去。我的意思是，我研究這個類別很長時間了，它是最大的類別之一。顯然，如果你特別考慮背部組織，它是一個非常穩定的類別。因此，對我來說，邏輯是在後 COVID 世界中，我認為在家中的人數將持續多於 COVID 之前。我認為辦公環境或工作環境不會每天都恢復到 100%。所以邏輯會說消費應該比19年的基本水平高一點。

Now year-to-date, we're below '19 levels for the category, but we think -- I would say logic would say that, that should kind of normalize over time. And I won't estimate whether that's at what point. But over the long term, this category has proven to be very stable. And our brands have proven very, very stable and very healthy.

現在年初至今，我們的類別低於 19 年的水平，但我們認為 - 我會說邏輯會說，隨著時間的推移，這應該會正常化。我不會估計那是在什麼時候。但從長遠來看，這一類別已被證明是非常穩定的。事實證明，我們的品牌非常非常穩定且非常健康。

The other comment that I'd add if I can...

如果可以的話，我會添加的另一條評論...

No, please go ahead.

不，請繼續。

Yes is, just -- you were asking specifically on consumer tissue, which certainly has a big first half, second half effect. If I look overall first half, second half, in the first half, our organic sales are down 5% and our operating profit is down 26%. If you take the midpoint of our ranges, you get to a second half that looks something like plus 3% on organic and plus 5% on operating profit growth.

是的，只是 - 你是專門針對消費者紙巾詢問的，這肯定會產生很大的上半年和下半年的影響。如果我整體看上半年，下半年，上半年，我們的有機銷售額下降了 5%，我們的營業利潤下降了 26%。如果你取我們範圍的中點，你會得到一個看起來像有機增長 3% 和營業利潤增長 5% 的下半年。

And so if you think about the -- our second half outlook and the key drivers there, we'll have easier comps. We will have a step-up and benefit from volume growth and price realization in the second half. The majority of the consumer tissue destock, we're assuming, occurred in the first half. We won't have the winter storm effects that we had in the first half. KCP washroom is expected to continue to see sequential improvements. The pricing actions are now fully in the market.

因此，如果您考慮一下 - 我們的下半年前景和那裡的主要驅動因素，我們將擁有更輕鬆的組合。我們將在下半年從銷量增長和價格實現中加快步伐並從中受益。我們假設，大部分消費用紙去庫存發生在上半年。我們不會有上半年的冬季風暴影響。預計 KCP 洗手間將繼續出現連續改善。定價行為現在已完全投放市場。

We'll see some build on our cost savings as we typically do. It's usually second half weighted and our other manufacturing cost headwinds should be lower. And then offsetting that what will be the higher commodity cost headwinds. If you take the $45 million year-to-date in our guidance, it implies year to go is $765 million at the midpoint. So -- that's -- those are the drivers for the second half and certainly, the dynamics in consumer tissue are a key part of that.

我們會像往常一樣看到一些節省成本的基礎。它通常是下半年加權，我們的其他製造成本逆風應該更低。然後抵消商品成本較高的不利因素。如果您在我們的指導中採用年初至今的 4500 萬美元，這意味著中點的未來一年為 7.65 億美元。所以 - 那是 - 這些是下半年的驅動力，當然，消費者組織的動態是其中的關鍵部分。

All right, Christopher, we threw a lot at you and I threw a lot at you on tissue. I don't know if that answered all your questions or I'm happy to take a follow-up.

好吧，克里斯托弗，我們向你扔了很多東西，我用紙巾向你扔了很多東西。我不知道這是否回答了您的所有問題，或者我很樂意跟進。

Yes, that was extremely helpful. The only quick follow-up would be just on the level of the inventory -- retail inventory in tissue as you entered Q3, given some percentages, where do you see it today? And then if I might, I would just sneak in a question on how you're thinking about birth rates and medium-term impact on volumes, and then I'll get back in the queue.

是的，這非常有幫助。唯一的快速跟進將只是在庫存水平上——當你進入第三季度時，組織中的零售庫存，給定一些百分比，你今天在哪裡看到它？然後，如果可以的話，我會偷偷問一個關於你如何考慮出生率和中期對數量的影響的問題，然後我會回到隊列中。

Yes, all right. And just -- I'm going to -- a disclaimer on my inventory, those are our estimates and so that's kind of how we look at it and think about it. I would say, close to historical levels. The caveat I'll say on, Chris, was we're not exactly sure and I'm not sure the retailer is exactly sure how they want to handle it at this point, right? And so I think kind of given the category volatility and on a retailer-by-retailer basis included, I think it's going to continue to bounce around a little bit, right?

嗯，好。只是 - 我要 - 我的庫存免責聲明，這些是我們的估計，所以這就是我們看待它和思考它的方式。我會說，接近歷史水平。克里斯，我要說的警告是，我們不確定，我不確定零售商是否完全確定他們現在想如何處理它，對嗎？因此，我認為考慮到品類的波動性以及包括零售商在內的各個零售商，我認為它會繼續反彈一點，對吧？

And so because -- and the example I'll give you is we were building up the inventories, but there was another spike kind of in the fall period and then the winter period as well. And so I do think consumers largely understand that there is plenty of tissue availability. But that said, I've seen a lot of new things over the last 18 months. And so we won't be surprised if behaviors continue to shift around a little bit. So that's on the tissue side.

所以因為 - 我給你的例子是我們正在建立庫存，但在秋季和冬季也出現了另一種高峰。所以我認為消費者在很大程度上理解有大量的紙巾供應。但話雖如此，在過去的 18 個月裡，我看到了很多新事物。因此，如果行為繼續發生一點點變化，我們不會感到驚訝。所以這是在組織方面。

And the other part of it is, certainly, there was a consumer -- we think consumer pantry destocking as well. I will tell you, the team in North America has done a phenomenal job conducting research to try to estimate that. I will say it's probably as accurate as trying to estimate share from panel data, right? And so you're asking consumers how much they're carrying. And so -- but we do believe consumers are taking a lot of their stock out as they have more confidence that tissue is available, but that remains to be proven out. So that's on the tissue.

另一部分當然是有消費者——我們認為消費者食品儲藏室也在去庫存。我會告訴你，北美的團隊在進行研究以試圖估計這一點方面做得非常出色。我會說它可能和試圖從面板數據中估計份額一樣準確，對吧？所以你問消費者他們攜帶了多少。所以 - 但我們確實相信消費者正在減少他們的大量庫存，因為他們對紙巾的供應更有信心，但這仍有待證明。所以這是在紙巾上。

And then on the birth rate. Yes, our estimate for this year, first of all, it's probably down about mid-single -- low to mid-single digit. And that's probably a little worse than the last -- the prior 2 years. I think the prior couple of years were down about 1% to 2% depending on the year. And then given COVID, I think it feels like some families have decided to defer family formation and so kind of in that range.

然後是出生率。是的，我們對今年的估計，首先，它可能下降了大約中個位數——低到中個位數。這可能比前兩年差一點。我認為前幾年下降了大約 1% 到 2%，具體取決於年份。然後考慮到 COVID，我認為有些家庭已經決定推遲組建家庭，等等。

I will say we feel really good about the recovery of our infant child care business and the fact that we're really recovering from a supply perspective. Our brand propositions, we feel very strongly about. And so we feel like in the third quarter, we should be back to being on track in our infant child care business. So...

我會說，我們對嬰兒托兒業務的複蘇以及從供應角度真正復甦的事實感覺非常好。我們的品牌主張，我們感覺非常強烈。所以我們覺得在第三季度，我們應該回到嬰兒托兒業務的正軌。所以...

Our next question comes from Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Steve Powers。

You did throw a lot at us on that consumer tissue conversation, but I guess I have just a clarification coming out of the back and forth you just had with Chris and the commentary this morning. If -- I guess, I'm still trying to ascertain whether you see a change in consumer takeaway expectations on the balance of the year. Because what I read in the prepared remarks is that the consumer pantry and retailer inventory rebalancing occurred faster than you previously assumed as it relates to 2Q. And you just kind of reaffirmed that, but I didn't really hear anything about a net reduction in consumer takeaway. So I guess, were you not assuming any rebalancing in the course of '21 before? It just happened in '21, where you thought it would happen later downstream?

在消費者組織的談話中，你確實向我們拋出了很多東西，但我想我只是從你剛剛與 Chris 和今天早上的評論的來回中得到澄清。如果 - 我想，我仍在試圖確定您是否看到今年餘額中消費者外賣預期的變化。因為我在準備好的評論中讀到的是，消費者食品儲藏室和零售商庫存再平衡發生的速度比你之前假設的要快，因為它與第二季度有關。你只是重申了這一點，但我並沒有真正聽到任何關於消費者外賣淨減少的消息。所以我猜，你之前沒有假設在 21 年的過程中會進行任何再平衡嗎？它剛剛發生在 21 年，你認為它會在下游發生嗎？

Or is there -- because I guess, I can understand the pull forward in the rebalancing for the first half versus more spread out and not hurt 2Q, but there's still a net negative impact on the full year that I can't pinpoint. So can you just help me there?

或者是否存在——因為我想，我可以理解上半年再平衡的拉動，而不是更分散的，不會傷害第二季度，但我無法確定全年的淨負面影響。那你能幫我嗎？

Yes, there's a couple of different ways for me to answer that question. I'll say let me anchor it versus our original plan, our plan expectations for tissue at the beginning of the year. We walked in the year and just think back to December, Steve, where the vaccines were really not rolled out. And so our going-in was that the category would be lower than 2020 overall, but in some ways, probably a mid-single-digit decline, right? Because we thought at that point in time, consumers -- people would still be at home generally, right?

是的，我有幾種不同的方式來回答這個問題。我會說讓我把它與我們最初的計劃相比，我們在年初對紙巾的計劃預期。我們走過這一年，回想一下 12 月，史蒂夫，那裡的疫苗真的沒有推出。因此，我們的考慮是該類別總體上將低於 2020 年，但在某些方面，可能會出現中個位數的下降，對吧？因為我們當時認為，消費者——人們通常仍然在家，對吧？

Now coming out of that, and as we entered our April update, it's clear that the vaccines rolled out much faster than anybody anticipated and mobility, the data that we track, show that we're returning to maybe 80% or 85% of historical levels. And so that was faster than we had anticipated. And so our expectations for the category, I'd say, were down a little bit further.

現在，隨著我們進入 4 月份的更新，很明顯，疫苗的推出速度比任何人預期的都要快得多，我們跟踪的數據表明，我們正在恢復到歷史的 80% 或 85%水平。所以這比我們預期的要快。所以我們對這個類別的期望，我想說，進一步下降了一點。

I think coming out of the second quarter, I would say our category expectations, which were up about 22% in bath last year, probably, we would say, are going to be down at least in the mid-teens or so -- mid- to high teens. And so overall, I think our expectations for the category are going to be worse than they were at the beginning of the year. That said, at that level, I would say that's still -- I still believe it should be above a base year of 2019, right, if you take the 2 years together.

我認為從第二季度開始，我會說我們的類別預期，去年在浴缸中上漲了約 22%，我們可能會說，至少在十幾歲左右 - 中期- 到青少年。所以總的來說，我認為我們對這個類別的期望會比年初更糟糕。也就是說，在那個水平上，我仍然認為它應該高於 2019 年的基準年，對吧，如果你把這 2 年放在一起的話。

That remains to be seen. It feels like a kind of sticking my neck out there call on that just because of what we experienced in the front half. But again, I'm working from logic that says there are likely to be more people at home than there were in 2019. And if people are home more often, then the consumption of at-home bath issue should be higher but that remains to be proven out.

這還有待觀察。由於我們在前半場的經歷，這感覺就像是一種把我的脖子伸出來的呼喚。但同樣，我的邏輯是，在家的人可能比 2019 年更多。如果人們在家的頻率更高，那麼在家洗澡問題的消費應該會更高，但這仍然是被證明。

Yes. Okay. Okay, that helps. And I guess that segues into my next question, which you sound pretty satisfied and happy and kind of upbeat with the trajectory of the Professional business, probably in part because of that vaccination reopening trend. I guess -- so that resonates with me, but I guess I was expecting a bit more just as it relates to 2Q, given the dynamics you said as an offset to consumer tissue. And so just maybe a little bit more color as to how you see that business trending and kind of what your expectations are in the back half.

是的。好的。好的，這有幫助。我想這會延續到我的下一個問題，你聽起來很滿意，很高興，對專業業務的發展軌蹟有點樂觀，部分原因可能是疫苗重新開放的趨勢。我想 - 這引起了我的共鳴，但我想我期待更多，因為它與第二季度有關，因為你所說的動態是對消費者組織的抵消。因此，關於您如何看待業務趨勢以及您對後半部分的期望可能會增加一點色彩。

Yes. On KCP, I wouldn't convey happy. I would say it's certainly proud of our team and how they respond to all these challenges. I'm cautiously optimistic about where that category is, and I do see some green shoots. I mean a couple of things kind of going on. Organic was up 2%, right, which is a sequential improvement versus where we were -- we've been for these past several quarters. That was predicated on really strong growth internationally, which had a really soft comp from a year ago.

是的。在 KCP 上，我不會表達快樂。我會說這當然為我們的團隊以及他們如何應對所有這些挑戰而感到自豪。我對該類別的位置持謹慎樂觀的態度，並且確實看到了一些新芽。我的意思是有幾件事正在發生。有機增長了 2%，對，這與我們的情況相比是連續的改進——我們在過去的幾個季度中一直如此。這是基於國際上真正強勁的增長，與一年前相比，它的表現非常疲軟。

But importantly, improvement in -- sequential improvement in the North American washroom business, which is a big business for us and really, really important. I wouldn't say it's taken off yet, but we are seeing the impact of more people returning to work, whether it's in the office environment or a factory environment. And so I think that's -- those are all positives there.

但重要的是，北美洗手間業務的連續改善，這對我們來說是一項大業務，而且非常非常重要。我不會說它已經起飛，但我們看到了更多人重返工作崗位的影響，無論是在辦公室環境還是工廠環境中。所以我認為那是 - 這些都是積極的。

There are some offsets because we did grow significantly in our wipers and PPE or safety business last year due to additional COVID demand. That's probably cycling down a little bit this year and that's a bit of an offset. So we feel good about the KCP business. I think the team, even throughout last year, was working hard. I think somebody mentioned on the call last year around Jenn Air Dryer conversions, and we've got better offerings in our washroom business, great tal product's, great dispenser products. And so we are winning conversions. But I think I said on prior calls, we haven't seen the -- we won't see the share until the products flow through the dispensers. So what we feel good about what the team is doing and looking forward to -- I'm cautiously optimistic.

有一些抵消，因為由於額外的 COVID 需求，我們去年在雨刷和 PPE 或安全業務方面確實顯著增長。今年可能會有所下降，這有點抵消。因此，我們對 KCP 業務感覺良好。我認為團隊，甚至在去年全年，都在努力工作。我想有人在去年的電話會議上提到了 Jenn Air Dryer 的轉換，我們的洗手間業務提供了更好的產品、優質的產品、優質的分配器產品。所以我們正在贏得轉換。但我想我在之前的電話會議上說過，我們沒有看到 - 在產品流過分配器之前我們不會看到份額。所以我們對團隊正在做的事情和期待的事情感覺良好——我持謹慎樂觀的態度。

Okay. If I could just, Maria, you've mentioned that $770 million or so at the midpoint of inflation to come over the back half. Do you -- is there any, I guess, color you can offer in terms of how you see that flowing 3Q versus 4Q? If it's weighted significantly one versus the other or if it's more evenly spread? Just some help with the cadence there would be helpful.

好的。如果我可以的話，瑪麗亞，你已經提到在通貨膨脹的中點大約有 7.7 億美元可以超過後半部分。您是否 - 我猜，您可以根據您如何看待流動的 3Q 與 4Q 提供任何顏色？如果它的權重比另一個顯著，或者分佈更均勻？只是對節奏的一些幫助會有所幫助。

Yes. I think the expectations are that the commodities will reach peak in the third quarter and then start to ease a bit as we get into the fourth quarter. So I've used that as the kind of phasing guidance.

是的。我認為預期是大宗商品將在第三季度達到頂峰，然後隨著我們進入第四季度開始有所緩解。因此，我將其用作分階段指導。

Our next question comes from Peter Grom with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Peter Grom。

So you mentioned in your prepared remarks, and I was also pretty encouraged by the performance and commentary around D&E. And so obviously, you have pockets of strength, pockets of weakness and you mentioned strong share performance there. But I was just curious, has the consumer been more resilient in those markets than you would have anticipated, kind of given the COVID environment? Or is this strength really just Kimberly specific?

所以你在準備好的評論中提到了，我也對圍繞 D&E 的表現和評論感到非常鼓舞。很明顯，你有很多優勢，也有很多弱點，而且你提到了強勁的股票表現。但我只是好奇，考慮到 COVID 環境，消費者在這些市場中是否比您預期的更有彈性？或者這種力量真的只是金伯利特有的嗎？

Well, that's really hard for me to generalize because I think it varies. I think certainly, there's a lot of markets that were less impacted by COVID, and I would say a lot of that is in Asia. Although I caution when I say that because it's starting to pop up again now more significantly, particularly in market -- big markets for us like Indonesia. So I think there is some aspect of resiliency.

嗯，這對我來說真的很難概括，因為我認為它會有所不同。我認為當然，有很多市場受 COVID 的影響較小，我想說其中很多是在亞洲。儘管我這麼說時我很謹慎，因為它現在又開始以更顯著的方式再次出現，特別是在市場上——對我們來說像印度尼西亞這樣的大市場。所以我認為有彈性的某些方面。

But the other aspect is and maybe underlying is the strategy that we're on, which is to elevate the category and expand our markets. And I think the teams have really concentrated, particularly in infant and child care with the Huggies brand. Really great product offerings. I mean, I think the big thing that's happened over the last, I would say, 2 years is, globally, our teams on diapers have really aligned around kind of a set of consumer benefits that we're going to win on and really aligned on kind of the product technology platforms that are global platforms that they're launching.

但另一方面是並且可能是我們正在實施的戰略，即提升類別並擴大我們的市場。而且我認為這些團隊真的很專注，特別是在 Huggies 品牌的嬰兒和兒童護理方面。真正偉大的產品。我的意思是，我認為過去發生的一件大事，我想說的是，2 年來，在全球範圍內，我們的紙尿褲團隊已經圍繞一系列我們將贏得的消費者利益真正達成一致，並且真正達成一致在他們正在推出的全球平台的產品技術平台上。

For reference, we're up 4 share points in Australia, New Zealand in diapers. We're already, obviously, the market leaders there. But that diaper has specific lineage that's linked to our China diaper. I wouldn't say they're identical, but they're highly related, right? And so that's kind of the work that we've been on. We've taken share leadership positions in Argentina and Brazil. And again, the diaper there is related to the diaper that we're making in North America. They're not twins, but they're related, right?

作為參考，我們在澳大利亞和新西蘭的紙尿褲份額上漲了 4 點。顯然，我們已經是那裡的市場領導者。但這種尿布有特定的血統，與我們的中國尿布有關。我不會說它們是相同的，但它們是高度相關的，對吧？這就是我們一直在做的工作。我們在阿根廷和巴西佔據了份額領導地位。再說一次，那裡的尿布與我們在北美生產的尿布有關。他們不是雙胞胎，但他們是有血緣關係的，對吧？

And so I think, again, the teams are really focused on, I would say -- made a shift from product features to consumer benefits that we're focused on delivering. And I think that's really shown in the shares. And again, I'd say in China, we were up about 3 share points in the quarter as we were last quarter. I've mentioned 4 share points in Australia and New Zealand, 4 in Korea, 4 share points in Peru. So we're seeing pretty broad-based share gains.

因此，我再次認為，團隊真正專注於，我會說 - 從產品功能轉變為我們專注於提供的消費者利益。我認為這確實體現在股票中。再說一次，我想說在中國，我們在這個季度比上個季度上漲了大約 3 個股點。我提到了澳大利亞和新西蘭的 4 個共享點，韓國的 4 個，秘魯的 4 個共享點。因此，我們看到了相當廣泛的股票收益。

But we feel like they're earned. We're certainly not promoting our way to those share gains because we don't really believe in renting share. I think it's basically great products, great digital execution and then really hard sales execution and great partnership with customers.

但我們覺得他們是賺來的。我們當然不會推動獲得這些份額收益的方式，因為我們並不真正相信出租份額。我認為這基本上是偉大的產品，偉大的數字執行，然後是非常艱難的銷售執行和與客戶的良好合作。

No. That's super helpful. And then I just wanted to ask a couple of follow-up questions in regards to the commentary on second half organic sales growth. So first, I just want to make sure I heard the comment on volume growth correctly. Is that a total company comment or is that something specific to consumer tissue? I thought total company, but I just wanted to be sure because I think Chris' question was on consumer tissue. And then just like anything you can share on phasing of that 3% growth between Q3 versus Q4, given the cycling of the accrual true-up in Q4 would be really helpful.

不，這非常有幫助。然後我只是想就下半年有機銷售增長的評論提出幾個後續問題。所以首先，我只是想確保我正確聽到了關於銷量增長的評論。這是公司的全部評論還是消費者組織特有的評論？我認為是全公司，但我只是想確定一下，因為我認為克里斯的問題是關於消費者組織的。然後就像你可以分享的任何關於第三季度和第四季度之間 3% 的增長分階段的事情一樣，考慮到第四季度的應計調整週期將非常有幫助。

Sure. I was making the comments. I'm just bridging from the question on consumer tissue to the total company because consumer tissue is certainly part of the story in the second half when we look at the total company outlook. So to clarify, I was talking about total company in my remarks about first half, second half.

當然。我正在發表評論。我只是將消費者紙巾的問題與整個公司聯繫起來，因為當我們查看公司整體前景時，消費者紙巾肯定是下半年故事的一部分。所以澄清一下，我在關於上半年和下半年的評論中談論的是整個公司。

And the phasing of the quarters, I'm going to stay away from quarterly guidance. Here, I think the things to consider are the year-over-year comps. I did make some commentary around phasing on the commodity headwinds. And beyond that, I think I'm going to stay away from the quarters.

而季度的分階段，我將遠離季度指導。在這裡，我認為要考慮的是逐年對比。我確實圍繞逐步解決商品逆風發表了一些評論。除此之外，我想我會遠離宿舍。

Our next question comes from Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jason English。

So a couple of questions. I guess just I really want to focus in on tissue and pricing. You guys had phenomenal price growth in the fourth quarter '20 in North American tissue. And I believe it was because you had under-accrued or over-accrued -- excuse me, over-accrued for trade spend throughout the course of the year and had the true-up. So we're lapping a period where you had over-accrued for trade spend, suggesting that, well, I know list prices take time to get in, but I think I was expecting -- many of us were expecting you to at least get some pricing benefit from lower trade.

所以有幾個問題。我想我真的想專注於紙巾和定價。你們在 20 年第四季度北美紙巾的價格出現了驚人的增長。我相信這是因為您應計不足或超額應計 - 對不起，在全年的貿易支出中應計超額並進行了調整。因此，我們正在經歷一個您過度累積貿易支出的時期，這表明，好吧，我知道標價需要時間才能進入，但我想我在期待 - 我們中的許多人都希望您至少得到一些定價受益於較低的貿易。

Yet on a 2-year stack basis in North America, prices eroded. In developed markets outside of North America, prices are deflationary. In developing and emerging markets, your prices are deflationary and you just achieved the worst price/cost deficit that I can find on record.

然而，在北美的 2 年堆棧基礎上，價格下跌。在北美以外的發達市場，價格是通縮的。在發展中和新興市場，你們的價格是通縮的，你們剛剛實現了我能找到的有記錄以來最嚴重的價格/成本赤字。

So it begs the question of what's happening? What's really impeding your pricing power right now, particularly in an environment where as you're saying, you'd expect demand to be above base case 2019? Why aren't we seeing more responsiveness of sort of net price benefits flowing through the P&L?

所以它引出了發生了什麼的問題？現在真正阻礙您的定價能力的是什麼，特別是在您所說的環境中，您預計需求將高於 2019 年的基本情況？為什麼我們沒有看到通過損益表流動的淨價格收益的更多響應？

Yes. I will start, Jason. So Part 1 is we have announced pricing in consumer tissue in many markets, in most of our tissue markets around the world, including in North America. I wouldn't say we've taken it across every product line. And so Scott 1000 is kind of a key product that we have. And so that's one area.

是的。我會開始的，傑森。因此，第 1 部分是我們宣布了許多市場的消費用紙定價，包括我們在全球的大部分生活用紙市場，包括北美。我不會說我們已經在每個產品線上都採用了它。所以 Scott 1000 是我們擁有的一種關鍵產品。這是一個領域。

Certainly, we did benefit, as you mentioned, from accrual differences at the end of last year. And the other thing that we benefited throughout last year was given the amount of demand in the marketplace, we reduced our promotional spending overall, right? And so we kind of earned maybe the same or higher volume levels without having to spend the trade. So that was a benefit last year that we are cycling this year, and so we are putting some investment back in trade.

當然，正如你所提到的，我們確實從去年年底的應計差異中受益。去年我們受益的另一件事是考慮到市場的需求量，我們總體上減少了促銷支出，對嗎？因此，我們無需花費交易即可賺取相同或更高的交易量。所以這是去年我們今年循環的好處，所以我們將一些投資重新投入貿易。

For reference, I would say, the category promotional intensity in a market like North America, still below historical levels but moving its way back to what I would say are more normalized levels, and so we recognize the need to do that. The thing that I will tell you is I think your point is on, which is we've got to get better price realization. I will say we don't necessarily view the additional spending of trade to be a negative profit driver in the sense of, we've invested in a lot of tools and revenue management, and we expect our teams to be able to use those tools to drive volume and growth profitably. And so we're going to hold ourselves accountable to that.

作為參考，我想說北美等市場的品類促銷強度仍低於歷史水平，但又回到了我所說的更正常的水平，因此我們認識到有必要這樣做。我要告訴你的是，我認為你的觀點是正確的，那就是我們必須更好地實現價格。我要說的是，我們不一定將額外的貿易支出視為負利潤驅動因素，我們已經投資了很多工具和收入管理，我們希望我們的團隊能夠使用這些工具以盈利的方式推動銷量和增長。所以我們要對此負責。

But with that, again, we recognize the need to get additional price realization, and there's many ways for us to do that in addition to the list pricing that we've taken. And there's also ways for us to do that through revenue management, through trade efficiency, price pack and other things that we'll continue to look at. I don't know, Maria, if you have anything...

但是，我們再次認識到需要實現額外的價格實現，除了我們採用的定價之外，我們還有很多方法可以做到這一點。我們還可以通過收入管理、貿易效率、價格包和其他我們將繼續關注的事情來做到這一點。我不知道，瑪麗亞，如果你有什麼...

Yes, that's right.

是的，這是正確的。

Okay. So there's other mechanisms, we're just not going to see them yet. They're going to take time to see. Last time, we had inflation in tissue, you guys ran a price/cost deficit for 8 consecutive quarters before you flipped positive. Is there any reason to think that you could close the gap faster? Or given the environment that you're mentioning with promotional activity actually picking up in the face of rising costs, could it actually even be more prolonged this time?

好的。所以還有其他機制，我們只是還沒有看到它們。他們要花時間看看。上次，我們有紙巾通貨膨脹，你們連續 8 個季度出現價格/成本赤字，然後才轉為正數。有什麼理由認為你可以更快地縮小差距？或者考慮到你提到的環境，促銷活動在成本上升的情況下實際上有所增加，這次真的可以延長嗎？

Well, again, I think we've actioned generally our pricing in the marketplace. And so I would think that, hopefully, the duration of that gap would be shorter. Certainly, we didn't like the gap through the first half of this year. And so that's one part. Second, again, we're going to continue to review kind of all the levers that we have on revenue management and make sure that we make the appropriate adjustments to our plans on a market-by-market basis.

好吧，我認為我們已經普遍採取了我們在市場上的定價。所以我認為，希望這種差距的持續時間會更短。當然，我們不喜歡今年上半年的差距。這就是其中的一部分。其次，我們將繼續審查我們在收入管理方面擁有的所有槓桿，並確保我們在逐個市場的基礎上對我們的計劃進行適當的調整。

Our next question comes from Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

So I wanted to go back to pricing, I'm sorry to beat a dead horse here. But what is your read on the consumer elasticity, not only in the U.S. but also internationally as you obviously compete with players that oftentimes are private? But specific to the U.S., the dollar share that we're looking not only in tissue, in track channels, as you explained well through Chris' question before, but also in diapers, are you seeing that the same decline across all channels?

所以我想回到定價，很抱歉在這裡打死馬。但是，您對消費者彈性的看法是什麼，不僅在美國，而且在國際上，因為您顯然與通常是私人的玩家競爭？但具體到美國，我們不僅在紙巾和軌道渠道中尋找美元份額，正如您之前通過克里斯的問題很好解釋的那樣，而且在尿布中，您是否看到所有渠道都出現同樣的下降？

And is that an indication that consumers are probably down-trading now, that they see private label, for example, Scott 100 (sic) [Scott 1000] is the one that competes more neck to neck with private label? So are you seeing any issue there or perhaps you're going to tweak a little bit of your price increase now that you know what you know about tissue, and then perhaps do more GM where you barbell a little bit of these price increases? So any update on -- embedded in your guidance, if you were changing some of your pricing or any second rounds in North America that we may not be aware or you embedded in there? So any color there would be great.

這是否表明消費者現在可能正在減持，他們看到了自有品牌，例如，斯科特 100 (原文如此) [斯科特 1000] 是與自有品牌競爭更加激烈的產品？那麼，您是否發現那裡有任何問題，或者既然您知道您對紙巾的了解，您可能會稍微調整您的價格上漲，然後也許在您槓鈴這些價格上漲的情況下做更多的通用汽車？因此，如果您要更改某些定價或我們可能不知道的北美第二輪或您嵌入其中的任何更新，則嵌入在您的指導中？所以那裡的任何顏色都會很棒。

Yes. Great question, Andrea. Maybe the short answer for me is I don't know yet. I think for reference, we took about a high single-digit price increase across our personal care businesses and then some selective price increases, for example, on Scott tissue in North America. And I would say those went into effect at the end of June. And so it's a little early for us to gauge that.

是的。好問題，安德里亞。也許對我來說簡短的回答是我還不知道。我認為作為參考，我們在個人護理業務中進行了高個位數的價格上漲，然後進行了一些選擇性的價格上漲，例如北美的 Scott 紙巾。我想說這些在 6 月底生效。因此，我們現在判斷這一點還為時過早。

If I go off the history though, I will say the last list price increase we took on these businesses actually in personal care was not listed, it was more count, okay? But that said, I would say the consumer elasticity at that point back in 2018 was probably, in my mind, a little lower than what we modeled in terms of elasticity. So what that implies, I think there's a couple of different factors. If I would say, more price sensitive factors would be that I think consumers are facing broader inflation in this environment across all categories, right, beyond consumer packaged goods. So that may be one factor, right, that makes it a little more challenging.

不過，如果我不談歷史，我會說我們對這些業務實際上是在個人護理領域進行的最後一次標價上漲沒有列出，它更重要，好嗎？但話雖如此，我想說的是，在我看來，2018 年那個時候的消費者彈性可能比我們根據彈性建模的要低一些。這意味著什麼，我認為有幾個不同的因素。如果我要說，對價格更敏感的因素是我認為消費者在這種環境下面臨著所有類別的更廣泛的通脹，對，除了消費品。所以這可能是一個因素，對，這使它更具挑戰性。

The other factor that I know talking to people in other industries is there have been reductions in other spending, consumer spending, which create a little more wallet for some of the more consumables, and so that's an offset. So for me, the answer is at this point, a little theoretical ambiguous. And so it remains to be seen, but we'll know as we work through this quarter.

我知道與其他行業的人交談的另一個因素是其他支出，消費者支出的減少，這為一些更多的消耗品創造了更多的錢包，所以這是一個抵消。所以對我來說，答案在這一點上，有點理論上的模棱兩可。所以還有待觀察，但我們會在本季度工作時知道。

And no, that's super helpful for tissue. And in diapers, like I felt that you don't have as much of this channel stuffing that we saw, even I'm assuming retail inventory. I think you spoke mostly from a consumer tissue perspective and not so much on the diaper. So what is happening there? Do you see that changing also, the elasticities moving around as a moving target for you?

不，這對組織非常有幫助。在尿布中，就像我覺得你沒有我們看到的那樣多的渠道填充物，即使我假設零售庫存也是如此。我認為您主要從消費者組織的角度發言，而不是尿布。那麼那裡發生了什麼？您是否也看到了這種變化，彈性作為您的移動目標？

Again, I don't see significant change, but again, it's still early for us to tell. Yes, I think you're right, Andrea, the dynamics in personal care were very different than tissue last year. And so there was a bit of a, I would say, consumer buy-in in the first quarter last year, but it was, I would say, a mid-single-digit kind of number, maybe mid- to high single digit, whereas the first quarter last year, consumer tissue was like up 30%. And so very, very different behavior.

同樣，我沒有看到重大變化，但同樣，我們現在說還為時過早。是的，我認為你是對的，安德里亞，個人護理的動態與去年的紙巾非常不同。因此，我會說，去年第一季度有一點消費者買進，但我會說，這是一個中等個位數的數字，可能是中高個位數，而去年第一季度，消費紙巾上漲了 30%。所以非常非常不同的行為。

And then we unwound that, almost all of that in Q2 of last year. And so I think the consumer -- the personal care North America behavior has perhaps been a little bit normalized. And again, I think the same thing holds from what I was talking about tissue, which is our pricing has been kind of in the market for about 3 weeks now. It's a little bit earlier for us to get a read. But again, I think we feel cautiously optimistic about it.

然後我們在去年第二季度解除了幾乎所有這些。所以我認為消費者——北美的個人護理行為可能已經有點正常化了。再說一次，我認為我所說的紙巾也是如此，我們的定價已經在市場上出現了大約 3 週。對我們來說閱讀時間有點早。但同樣，我認為我們對此感到謹慎樂觀。

Next, we have a follow-up from Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

接下來，我們有來自巴克萊的 Lauren Lieberman 的跟進。

I was taken offguard. Wanted to ask about, let me just find my follow-up question, just the category growth in personal care in D&E markets. I know you talked a bit about -- very much so about market share gains. But one of the things that's definitely been out there like the resilience of some of the categories in D&E markets. So just anything you can offer in terms of perspective on why the categories have kind of held in as well as they have because even, again, with your share growth, it still implies the categories are in a pretty good spot, too.

我措手不及。想問一下，讓我找到我的後續問題，只是 D&E 市場中個人護理的類別增長。我知道你談到了一些 - 非常談到市場份額的增長。但其中一件事肯定已經存在，比如 D&E 市場中某些類別的彈性。因此，您可以提供任何關於這些類別為何如此受歡迎的觀點，因為即使再一次，隨著您的份額增長，它仍然意味著這些類別也處於一個相當不錯的位置。

Yes. And maybe I'll go around the horn because it varies so much because of a couple of things, one -- probably the biggest one being COVID. I would say we were really positively encouraged by our performance across Latin America. I thought it was terrific performance in a really, really challenging COVID environment. I'm sure you're kind of reading all about it. But I mean, in a market like Brazil, our personal care organic was up over 20% behind volume and price, and we did take pretty significant pricing actions there.

是的。也許我會繞過號角，因為它的變化很大，因為有幾件事，一個——可能最大的一個是 COVID。我想說，我們在拉丁美洲的表現讓我們深受鼓舞。我認為這是在一個非常非常具有挑戰性的 COVID 環境中的出色表現。我敢肯定，您正在閱讀有關它的所有內容。但我的意思是，在像巴西這樣的市場上，我們的有機個人護理產品的銷量和價格都上漲了 20% 以上，而且我們確實在那裡採取了相當大的定價行動。

Overall, we maintain our share there. We're already in the leadership position. And I think what's happening in Latin America broadly and why we're winning is the team is doing an excellent job adding value by premiumizing the category but also pivoting, in some ways, back and forth, even within the same year between value and premium. So the big thing is we have very strong leadership positions throughout Latin America. For example, in Argentina, we're the leaders in value tier and we're the leaders in premium tier, and we're the #1 brand overall.

總體而言，我們保持在那裡的份額。我們已經處於領導地位。而且我認為拉丁美洲廣泛發生的事情以及我們獲勝的原因是團隊通過提升類別做得非常出色，而且在某些方面甚至在價值和溢價之間來迴轉動，甚至在同一年內.所以最重要的是我們在整個拉丁美洲擁有非常強大的領導地位。例如，在阿根廷，我們是價值層的領導者，我們是優質層的領導者，我們是整體排名第一的品牌。

And so the team, depending on kind of what's happening in the local environment, kind of makes the pivot as to what products they're going to maybe drive and emphasize a little harder. And certainly, I think in Latin America, maybe this year more than maybe even 2 years ago, value is very important. Consumers are stretching out their consumption. But we flow through a lot of our great product innovation to our value tier as well. And I think that's working. So that's kind of one set of things.

因此，根據當地環境中發生的情況，團隊會更加努力地決定他們將要推動和強調的產品。當然，我認為在拉丁美洲，今年可能比兩年前更重要，價值非常重要。消費者正在擴大消費。但我們也將許多偉大的產品創新流向了我們的價值層。我認為這是有效的。所以這是一組事情。

I would say China is different. Lauren, we're up 3 share points in the quarter. We're proud, at least for now, we're in the #1 share position, which we feel great about and we feel really great about our products. And so I think the consumer continues to really respond to product superiority and innovation. I will say the category conditions are pressurized because I don't know how much you're seeing, but the birth rates are coming down fairly significantly. And so we recognize that's going to be an issue for us to work through. But in the near term, our team feels great about their ability to grow the business, to grow share and work with the big e-commerce partners.

我想說中國不一樣。勞倫，我們在本季度上漲了 3 股。我們很自豪，至少就目前而言，我們處於第一的份額位置，我們對此感覺很好，我們對我們的產品感覺非常好。所以我認為消費者繼續對產品優勢和創新做出真正的反應。我會說類別條件受到壓力，因為我不知道你看到了多少，但出生率正在顯著下降。因此，我們認識到這將是我們需要解決的問題。但在短期內，我們的團隊對他們發展業務、增加份額以及與大型電子商務合作夥伴合作的能力感到非常滿意。

And then in some of the other markets, Eastern Europe, I mean, I think we are multiple share points up in almost every market across Eastern Europe, somewhere in the 1 to 7 points of share in the quarter. And again, I think great offering. They're all related. The China diaper, the U.S. diaper, the Brazil, they're kind of all related to each other and very good. And I think the teams are recognizing how to drive those. So I think it varies.

然後在其他一些市場，東歐，我的意思是，我認為我們在東歐幾乎每個市場都有多個份額點，本季度的份額在 1 到 7 個點之間。再一次，我認為很棒的產品。它們都是相關的。中國的紙尿褲，美國的紙尿褲，巴西的紙尿褲，它們都有點相互關聯，非常好。我認為團隊正在認識到如何推動這些。所以我認為它會有所不同。

The one watch-out area that we're very kind of paying close attention to because of COVID is ASEAN, Indonesia, Vietnam, India as well. Again, those environments right now are really pressured with the pandemic. And so we're really keeping a close eye on that. So I don't know if I answered what you were looking for, if there's something else.

由於 COVID，我們非常關注的一個注意領域是東盟、印度尼西亞、越南和印度。同樣，現在這些環境確實受到大流行的壓力。所以我們真的在密切關注這一點。所以我不知道我是否回答了您要查找的內容，是否還有其他內容。

Yes. No, absolutely. I really appreciate it.

是的。不，絕對。對此，我真的非常感激。

Next, we have a follow-up from Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

接下來，我們有來自高盛的 Jason English 的後續報導。

Super quick follow-up question, real tactical on your response to Lauren there. I think you said China growth for you on personal care was up maybe mid-single digits, but you just said you captured 300 basis points of share in the quarter. It implies a pretty sharp market decline in the market. So can you drill down a little bit deeper there, like what is the rate of decline you're seeing? And I think you mentioned birth rates down and you exactly know when the birth rate is down, that has a prolonged drag on infant population. So is what we're seeing today likely to persist for a protracted period of time?

超級快速的後續問題，對您對 Lauren 的回應具有真正的戰術意義。我認為您說您在中國的個人護理業務增長可能達到中個位數，但您剛剛說您在本季度獲得了 300 個基點的份額。這意味著市場大幅下跌。那麼你能不能再深入一點，比如你看到的下降率是多少？而且我認為您提到了出生率下降，並且您確切地知道出生率何時下降，這對嬰兒人口造成了長期拖累。那麼我們今天所看到的可能會持續很長時間嗎？

Yes. Sorry, my bad. I was a little unclear. China overall, personal care was up mid-single digit. Our diaper business was up double digits. But that said, I think your question still holds. Yes, there are expected to be some birth rate challenges in China, so it will slow down as a market. I still believe, and I think our team believes, there's still significant opportunity to premiumize our categories and we're still a low double-digit share. And so there's still plenty of share opportunity. That said, I do think there will be a slowdown on the diaper side of the business.

是的。對不起這是我的錯。我有點不清楚。總體而言，中國個人護理產品增長了中個位數。我們的尿佈業務增長了兩位數。但話雖如此，我認為你的問題仍然成立。是的，預計中國將面臨一些出生率挑戰，因此它作為一個市場將會放緩。我仍然相信，而且我認為我們的團隊相信，我們仍然有很大的機會來提升我們的類別，而且我們仍然處於兩位數的低份額。所以仍然有很多分享機會。也就是說，我確實認為尿佈業務將會放緩。

Our femcare business has been growing strong double digits. In the quarter, it was down a bit because we were cycling a promotion, a big promotion that we've decided to get out of this year. And so -- but we feel great about our femcare business. That's grown strong double digits for, I think, 3 or 4 years in a row now. And so we expect continued growth in China, although I think on the diaper side, the category will be challenged somewhat.

我們的 femcare 業務一直保持兩位數的強勁增長。在本季度，它有所下降，因為我們正在循環促銷，這是我們決定在今年退出的大型促銷活動。所以——但我們對我們的女性護理業務感覺很好。我認為，這已經連續 3 或 4 年保持兩位數的強勁增長。因此，我們預計中國將繼續增長，儘管我認為在紙尿褲方面，該類別將受到一些挑戰。

It also kind of points out our emphasis on diversifying our growth across developing and emerging markets. So one of the things I'm excited about, Jason, is I think we grew significantly in India. I don't know if I could -- I think 50% -- well, strong double digits in the quarter.

它還有點指出我們強調在發展中市場和新興市場實現多元化增長。 Jason，讓我感到興奮的一件事是，我認為我們在印度取得了長足的進步。我不知道我是否可以——我認為是 50%——嗯，本季度強勁的兩位數。

And I would say, Indonesia, I'm really glad we made the acquisition of Softex. It's a great business. I think the business is up in the teens. Even though they are cycling or working through some pretty good COVID challenges -- pretty significant COVID challenges, but it's a great business and a great team. And again, with Indonesia and India, I think the growth in those markets is going to be very significant for us over the next several years.

我想說，印度尼西亞，我真的很高興我們收購了 Softex。這是一項偉大的事業。我認為這項業務在十幾歲時就開始了。儘管他們正在騎自行車或應對一些非常好的 COVID 挑戰——非常重要的 COVID 挑戰，但這是一項偉大的業務和一個偉大的團隊。再一次，對於印度尼西亞和印度，我認為這些市場的增長在未來幾年對我們來說將是非常重要的。

There are no more questions at this time.

目前沒有更多問題。

Okay. All right. Thank you all very much. We're certainly navigating some high volatility in external environment, but we're taking decisive action and we're continuing to improve our brand fundamentals to sustain long-term sustainable growth. All right. So for that, thank you.

好的。好的。非常感謝大家。我們當然正在應對外部環境的一些高度波動，但我們正在採取果斷行動，我們正在繼續改善我們的品牌基礎，以維持長期的可持續增長。好的。所以，謝謝。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's teleconference. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你。女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。