金百利克拉克 (KMB) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your patience in holding.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的耐心等待。

We now have your presenters in conference.

我們現在有您的演講者參加會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

It is now my pleasure to introduce today's first presenter, Mr. Paul Alexander.

現在我很高興介紹今天的第一位主持人保羅·亞歷山大先生。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝大家，大家早上好。

Welcome to Kimberly-Clark's first quarter earnings conference call.

歡迎參加金佰利第一季度財報電話會議。

I'm joined today with Mike Hsu, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Maria Henry, our CFO.

我今天與我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Mike Hsu 一起參加會議；和我們的首席財務官 Maria Henry。

Earlier this morning, we issued our earnings news release, and we also published prepared management remarks from Mike and Maria that summarized our first quarter results and full year outlook.

今天早上早些時候，我們發布了我們的收益新聞稿，我們還發布了 Mike 和 Maria 準備好的管理評論，總結了我們的第一季度業績和全年展望。

Both documents are available in the Investors section of our website.

這兩份文件都可以在我們網站的“投資者”部分找到。

In just a moment, Mike will share a few opening comments, and then we'll take your questions.

稍後，邁克將分享一些開場評論，然後我們將回答您的問題。

During this call, we may make forward-looking statements.

在本次電話會議期間，我們可能會做出前瞻性陳述。

Please see the Risk Factors section of our latest annual report on Form 10-K for further discussion of forward-looking statements.

有關前瞻性陳述的進一步討論，請參閱我們最新的 10-K 表格年度報告的風險因素部分。

We may also refer to adjusted results and outlook, both exclude certain items described in this morning's news release.

我們還可能參考調整後的業績和展望，均不包括今天上午新聞稿中描述的某些項目。

That release has further information about these adjustments and reconciliations to comparable GAAP financial measures.

該新聞稿包含有關這些調整和與可比 GAAP 財務措施的對賬的更多信息。

Now I'll turn it over to Mike.

現在我將把它交給邁克。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Paul.

謝謝你，保羅。

Good morning, everyone.

大家，早安。

I'd like to start the call today with a few brief remarks.

我想以一些簡短的評論開始今天的電話會議。

Our first quarter results and outlook have been impacted by supply chain disruption, faster-than-expected consumer tissue destocking and a sharp rise in input costs.

我們的第一季度業績和前景受到供應鏈中斷、消費用紙去庫存快於預期以及投入成本急劇上升的影響。

While I'm not pleased with the results and our outlook, we're taking decisive actions to manage through the short-term challenges we face.

雖然我對結果和我們的前景不滿意，但我們正在採取果斷行動來應對我們面臨的短期挑戰。

We're continuing to invest in our brands and commercial capability to ensure we're able to grow both in the near term and in the long term.

我們將繼續投資於我們的品牌和商業能力，以確保我們能夠在短期和長期內實現增長。

We gained market share in 2020, and our shares were off to a good start this year with strong gains in many key markets.

我們在 2020 年獲得了市場份額，今年我們的股票開局良好，在許多關鍵市場取得了強勁增長。

At the same time, we're moving rapidly, especially with selling price increases, to offset commodity headwinds.

與此同時，我們正在迅速採取行動，尤其是在銷售價格上漲的情況下，以抵消商品逆風。

We've done this successfully in the -- in past commodity cycles, and we expect to do this again now.

在過去的商品週期中，我們已經成功地做到了這一點，我們希望現在再次做到這一點。

I remain confident in the underlying health of our brands and in our growth strategies.

我對我們品牌的基本健康狀況和我們的增長戰略仍然充滿信心。

We're operating in a very dynamic environment.

我們在一個非常動態的環境中運作。

We know how to manage through this.

我們知道如何度過這個難關。

I'm confident our team will execute with excellence, and we'll continue to build a stronger company for long-term success and value creation.

我相信我們的團隊將卓越地執行，我們將繼續打造一家更強大的公司，以實現長期成功和價值創造。

Now with that, we'd be happy to take your questions.

現在，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Dara Mohsenian with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Dara Mohsenian。

So a couple of questions.

所以有幾個問題。

First, Mike, you mentioned in the prepared remarks that were published, price increases in many other businesses besides what you already announced in late March.

首先，邁克，你在準備好的發表的評論中提到，除了你在 3 月下旬已經宣布的內容之外，許多其他業務的價格上漲。

Can you just put a little more meat on the bone there in terms of additional product categories in the U.S. where you might take pricing -- maybe some international countries where pricing is more likely?

就美國的其他產品類別而言，您是否可以在那裡多加一點肉，您可能會定價 - 也許是一些更有可能定價的國際國家？

I know you want to be vague at this point, but any type of commentary on potential timing, magnitude of increases as you think about it across the portfolio.

我知道你想在這一點上含糊其辭，但是任何類型的關於潛在時機的評論，你在整個投資組合中考慮的增長幅度。

Okay.

好的。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you, Dara.

謝謝你，達拉。

Yes.

是的。

Our teams have moved very rapidly and made decisive actions to realize additional price this year, obviously.

顯然，我們的團隊行動非常迅速，並採取了果斷的行動來實現今年的額外價格。

We announced many price moves back in -- towards the end of March.

我們在 3 月底宣布了許多價格走勢。

And those will take effect over the next couple of quarters.

這些將在接下來的幾個季度生效。

In North America, pricing is typically going to be in the mid- to high single-digit range across both our consumer tissue business and our personal care businesses.

在北美，我們的消費紙巾業務和個人護理業務的定價通常都在中高個位數範圍內。

It will cover about 60% of our overall portfolio.

它將覆蓋我們整個投資組合的約 60%。

We are taking pricing in multiple other markets, including in Europe, Latin America and parts of Asia.

我們正在多個其他市場定價，包括歐洲、拉丁美洲和亞洲部分地區。

We expect pricing and additional productivity to offset most of the raw material inflation -- incremental raw material inflation this year.

我們預計定價和額外的生產力將抵消大部分原材料通脹——今年的原材料通脹增加。

And again, we're off to execution.

再一次，我們要執行了。

We have generally announced most of our moves, thus far.

到目前為止，我們通常已經宣布了我們的大部分舉措。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And the other 40% in North America, do you think that comes eventually?

北美的另外 40%，你認為這最終會到來嗎？

Is it uncertain at this point?

目前還不確定嗎？

Is it more just timing and you're waiting for the right timing?

是否只是時機，而您正在等待正確的時機？

And then...

進而...

Yes.

是的。

I would say phase effects -- and obviously, Dara, you might recognize we did some actions in list and some in count, and so we had plans for count that we're rolling out, but will occur a little bit later.

我想說的是階段效應——很明顯，Dara，你可能會認識到我們在列表中做了一些動作，在計數中做了一些動作，所以我們有我們正在推出的計數計劃，但稍後會發生。

Okay.

好的。

And then looking at the full year top line guidance, it implies a pretty robust recovery relative to some of the softness that we saw in Q1.

然後看看全年的營收指引，相對於我們在第一季度看到的一些疲軟，這意味著相當強勁的複蘇。

So just give us a sense for what's driving the confidence there?

因此，請讓我們了解是什麼推動了那裡的信心？

Is it more a category recovery as you look going forward?

在您看來，這更像是一種類別的恢復嗎？

Or are there other factors?

還是有其他因素？

And then also, can you just comment on what you've assumed on North American market share in both personal care and consumer tissue in the balance of the year?

然後，您能否評論一下您在今年餘下時間對北美個人護理和消費紙巾市場份額的假設？

I'm wondering what the assumptions are there, particularly in light of some of the price increases that you mentioned?

我想知道那裡的假設是什麼，特別是考慮到你提到的一些價格上漲？

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Just on the outlook, again, I think one of the things around the -- maybe the quarterly phasing is just recognizing that we had unusually high demand in the first half of last year.

再說一次，就前景而言，我認為圍繞季度的一件事 - 也許季度階段只是認識到我們在去年上半年的需求異常高。

And that started in the back -- toward the end of March in the first quarter and then all through the second quarter.

這從後面開始——在第一季度的三月底，然後一直到第二季度。

So that will -- that's really driving a difference in our outlook.

所以這將 - 這確實推動了我們前景的不同。

One of the big reasons for our adjustment in the reduced outlook organically was what we are seeing as a faster destock in consumer tissue, particularly in bath tissue.

我們對下調前景進行有機調整的重要原因之一是我們看到消費紙巾的去庫存速度加快，尤其是浴巾紙。

And I think you can see that in the scanner results as well.

我認為您也可以在掃描儀結果中看到這一點。

I do think it is a faster destock, and that looks like it's related to maybe faster vaccination and faster pace of mobility that's changing.

我確實認為這是一種更快的去庫存化，這看起來可能與更快的疫苗接種和更快的流動速度有關。

Interestingly, we track mobility data.

有趣的是，我們跟踪移動數據。

It looked like January, February, Dara, in the U.S., mobility was down about 30% in January and February.

看起來 1 月、2 月，美國的 Dara 的流動性在 1 月和 2 月下降了約 30%。

And it climbed to being down 15% by the time we got to March.

到了 3 月，它已經攀升至下降了 15%。

So again, I think it does -- a lot of it is the demand that tracks with kind of what we're seeing happening in the tissue.

再說一次，我認為確實如此 - 其中很多是與我們在組織中看到的情況相匹配的需求。

Yes.

是的。

And the other areas, we had the effect of the supply chain disruptions in the first quarter that impacted our sales.

在其他領域，我們受到了第一季度供應鏈中斷的影響，影響了我們的銷售。

And that's mostly a first quarter event.

這主要是第一季度的事件。

And then as Mike said, the comps get easier in the second half versus the first half.

然後正如邁克所說，與上半場相比，下半場比賽變得更容易。

And if you look at kind of our underlying business and market shares, the underlying business is performing well.

如果你看看我們的基礎業務和市場份額，基礎業務表現良好。

And if you look at our KCP business with our expectations around mobility, we would expect KCP to pick up also.

如果您以我們對移動性的期望來看待我們的 KCP 業務，我們預計 KCP 也會回升。

Okay.

好的。

And just one clarification.

只有一個澄清。

Go ahead, sorry.

繼續，對不起。

No.

不。

Go ahead.

前進。

I was just going to ask, is the Q1 volume loss, do you recover any of that going forward?

我只是想問，第一季度的交易量損失，你能恢復嗎？

Or is that more of that lost volume sort of applies to the full year?

或者更多的損失量適用於全年？

Or is there a recovery at some point?

還是在某個時候恢復？

Well, we're hoping to recover some of it, but there was a pretty big impact to the quarter that we think will stick for the year.

好吧，我們希望能恢復其中的一部分，但對我們認為將持續到今年的季度產生了相當大的影響。

Let me just touch on the winter storm a little bit just to give you a little more texture.

讓我稍微談談冬天的風暴，只是為了給你更多的質感。

And our estimate would be -- conservatively, on Q1, would've been worth about $0.15 a share and 2 points overall of organic, which was -- which would be about 5 points of growth -- organic growth for North America.

我們的估計是——保守地，在第一季度，每股價值約為 0.15 美元，整體有機增長 2 個百分點，這將是北美有機增長的 5 個百分點左右。

Important to note, this will also -- and this goes back to the phasing, Dara, it's also going to constrain our Q2 volume in North America, particularly in family -- in personal care.

需要注意的是，這也將——這可以追溯到分階段，達拉，這也將限制我們在北美的第二季度銷量，特別是在家庭——個人護理領域。

And it's also going to affect our shares in the second quarter.

這也將影響我們第二季度的股票。

So the back story is, and I think you may understand, but the February storm hit in the Southern U.S. and really significantly impacted our supply network.

所以背後的故事是，我想你可能會理解，但 2 月的風暴襲擊了美國南部，確實對我們的供應網絡產生了重大影響。

We -- it shut down large personal care and consumer tissue facilities that we have based in Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas for up to 10 days.

我們——它關閉了我們在德克薩斯州、俄克拉荷馬州和阿肯色州的大型個人護理和消費紙巾設施長達 10 天。

And so sales were impacted due to -- it did flow through to sales for us, Dara.

所以銷售受到影響是因為——它確實流向了我們的銷售，Dara。

Typically, I would say, hey, a week or 2 down should not affect the business that much.

通常情況下，我會說，嘿，一兩週下來應該不會對業務產生太大影響。

But because of COVID last year, we were already running in a tight supply situation.

但是由於去年的 COVID，我們已經在供應緊張的情況下運行。

And so that's why it has rolled through and affected our sales.

這就是為什麼它已經通過並影響了我們的銷售。

It's also going to continue to impact our raw material supply.

它還將繼續影響我們的原材料供應。

Polymer producers have been affected more than us, I would say.

我想說，聚合物生產商受到的影響比我們更大。

And so we're having some spot outages of some materials.

因此，我們遇到了一些材料的局部中斷。

And so again, overall, in North America, underlying brand performance has been very healthy, but we do expect, because of supply issues, our shares to soften a bit in the second quarter.

同樣，總體而言，在北美，潛在品牌表現非常健康，但我們確實預計，由於供應問題，我們的股價在第二季度會有所走軟。

Yes.

是的。

And it's tough because we were in fixed consumption categories.

這很困難，因為我們屬於固定消費類別。

And so if people use our products on a daily basis, so when you go to buy them, if we're not on the shelf, then they'll find it elsewhere outside of Kimberly-Clark.

因此，如果人們每天都使用我們的產品，那麼當你去購買它們時，如果我們不在貨架上，那麼他們會在金佰利之外的其他地方找到它。

And so typically, in the first quarter, when there's challenges, we would look to recover.

因此，通常情況下，在第一季度遇到挑戰時，我們會尋求復蘇。

It's a little tougher given the outages, given that it's fixed consumption.

考慮到它是固定消耗，考慮到中斷，這有點困難。

So that impact is definitely factored into our full year reduction in our top line outlook.

因此，這種影響肯定會成為我們全年下調收入前景的因素。

Our next question comes from Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Lauren Lieberman。

I was hoping you could talk a little bit about spending levels.

我希望你能談談支出水平。

So just thinking about the balance here, I think you commented that investment kind of steps up in 2Q versus 1Q.

所以只要考慮這裡的平衡，我想你評論說第二季度的投資比第一季度有所增加。

But one of the questions I've gotten from people a couple of times this morning was just the degree to which you're going to tap into G&A spending for the balance of the year to kind of -- to deal with some of the -- with the unforeseen cost headwinds.

但是今天早上我從人們那裡得到的一個問題是，你將在多大程度上利用 G&A 支出來應對今年剩餘的時間，以處理一些 - - 有不可預見的成本逆風。

And then also just related to that and just following up on Dara's question as a point of clarification, when you talked about pricing and productivity offsetting most of the inflation, is that on a calendar year basis?

然後也只是與此相關，只是跟進 Dara 的問題作為澄清點，當你談到定價和生產力抵消大部分通貨膨脹時，這是在日曆年的基礎上嗎？

Or is that an over-time comment?

或者這是一個超時評論？

Yes.

是的。

Let me take the last one first, and then I'll come back to between the lines.

讓我先拿最後一個，然後我會回到字裡行間。

So one way to think about the run-up in inflation that we have for the year is that, within year, we'll cover about half of that with pricing.

因此，考慮今年通脹上升的一種方法是，在一年內，我們將通過定價來彌補其中的一半。

And then when you add in the additional cost savings both in terms of our increased outlook on the FORCE program as well as additional tightening of the belt around discretionary items, you would get to cover a good portion of the inflation.

然後，當您在我們對 FORCE 計劃前景的增加以及對可自由支配項目的額外收緊方面加上額外的成本節省時，您將可以彌補大部分通貨膨脹。

And then if you look at the reduction in our EPS outlook, you could look at it and say, after all of that, it comes down to the decline in volumes, which are affected by all the reasons that Mike just talked about.

然後，如果您查看我們每股收益前景的下降，您可能會說，畢竟這歸結為銷量下降，這受到邁克剛才談到的所有原因的影響。

So within a year, Paul, I think we're saying about half is recovered on pricing.

所以在一年之內，保羅，我認為我們說大約有一半是在定價上恢復的。

And then over time, we would expect to fully recover the commodity increases, as we always do, through a combination of price increases and cost savings, if that's helpful.

然後隨著時間的推移，我們希望像往常一樣，通過價格上漲和成本節約的結合來完全恢復商品增長，如果這有幫助的話。

Definitely.

確實。

Okay?

好的？

And then on the...

然後在...

Yes.

是的。

Getting on to the first one.

進入第一個。

Between the lines.

字裡行間。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

And then on between the lines, the way I think about that for the year is, first and foremost, we will continue to invest behind our K-C 2022 Strategy, which means we will continue to support our brand investments.

然後在字裡行間，我對這一年的看法是，首先，我們將繼續投資於我們的 K-C 2022 戰略，這意味著我們將繼續支持我們的品牌投資。

We'll continue to invest in innovation and capability development as all of those things have been paying off for us.

我們將繼續投資於創新和能力發展，因為所有這些都為我們帶來了回報。

So I look at that as protected investment.

因此，我將其視為受保護的投資。

And then on discretionary costs, we'll certainly look to tighten our belt and prioritize any spending that we have this year given the more challenging conditions.

然後在可自由支配的成本方面，鑑於更具挑戰性的條件，我們肯定會勒緊褲腰帶並優先考慮我們今年的任何支出。

And in addition, we are continuing to push the FORCE cost savings.

此外，我們還在繼續推動 FORCE 成本節約。

And as I just mentioned, we upped our savings outlook for the year there.

正如我剛才提到的，我們提高了當年的儲蓄前景。

And our teams are working hard to try to pull in productivity programs into this year as well as find new opportunities given the overall pressure there.

鑑於那裡的整體壓力，我們的團隊正在努力嘗試將生產力計劃引入今年，並尋找新的機會。

And I'll add, Lauren, it's important for us to protect that investment in our brands because we feel like it's working very well globally, and our brands are responding well to the investment and performing very well despite I would -- what I would say are some challenging conditions.

我要補充一點，勞倫，保護對我們品牌的投資對我們來說很重要，因為我們覺得它在全球範圍內運作良好，我們的品牌對投資反應良好，表現非常好，儘管我會 - 我會說是一些具有挑戰性的條件。

Definitely, we believe our better execution and our investments in our quality innovation, advertising are really working.

毫無疑問，我們相信我們更好的執行力以及我們在質量創新、廣告方面的投資確實奏效了。

Market shares are broadly up globally in almost all key markets around the world.

在全球幾乎所有主要市場中，全球市場份額普遍上升。

I'll just rattle off some shares, just -- you may be able to see these, but North American diapers, we're up about 1.5 points in share.

我會喋喋不休地分享一些股票，只是 - 你可能會看到這些，但北美尿布，我們的份額上漲了約 1.5 個百分點。

In China, almost 3 share points.

在中國，幾乎是3個份額點。

Korea, Australia, Peru are all over 4 share points.

韓國、澳大利亞、秘魯均超過4個份額。

India, Argentina, CEE, we're up over 2 points.

印度、阿根廷、中東歐，我們上漲了 2 分以上。

And so again, we feel like we have great products in the marketplace, great marketing, especially through digital, and great execution from our teams.

同樣，我們覺得我們在市場上有很棒的產品，很棒的營銷，尤其是通過數字化，以及我們團隊的出色執行。

And so we want to continue to support that.

因此，我們希望繼續支持這一點。

Okay.

好的。

And just to double check my math, which I can follow up off-line with Paul, if it's super wrong.

只是為了仔細檢查我的數學，如果它是超級錯誤的，我可以與 Paul 離線跟進。

But it sounds like North America personal care was on track to be up like low single digits this quarter if the storms hadn't created supply chain issues.

但聽起來，如果風暴沒有造成供應鏈問題，北美個人護理產品本季度有望以低個位數增長。

Is that fair?

這公平嗎？

That's a reasonable assumption, Lauren.

這是一個合理的假設，勞倫。

Our next question comes from Kevin Grundy with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Kevin Grundy。

Quick question on K-C Professional.

關於 K-C Professional 的快速問題。

Did you see a pickup in the month of March?

你看到三月份的皮卡了嗎？

I guess, like looking back to last year, there should be somewhat of a natural hedge.

我想，就像回顧去年一樣，應該有一些自然的對沖。

Mike, there was a comment in the prepared remarks about potentially seeing some early effects of social mobility picking up, which had an unfavorable impact on the consumer side of business.

邁克，準備好的評論中有一條評論說，可能會看到社會流動性的一些早期影響，這對企業的消費者方面產生了不利影響。

I wanted to tie that in 2 ways.

我想用兩種方式來解決這個問題。

Number one, did you see that pickup in the month of March?

第一，你看到三月份的皮卡了嗎？

Because it wasn't necessarily evident in the quarter.

因為它在本季度並不一定很明顯。

But again, March could be looking better relative to January and February.

但同樣，相對於 1 月和 2 月，3 月可能看起來更好。

And then two, was the demand elasticity in that business in line with your expectations?

其次，該業務的需求彈性是否符合您的預期？

It looks like you took some pricing with an obvious effect on volumes, but the business did come in quite a bit lower than the Street had modeled.

看起來你採取了一些對銷量有明顯影響的定價，但業務確實比華爾街建模的要低很多。

So just hedging implications from some weakness on the consumer side and then comments on demand elasticity would be helpful.

因此，僅僅對沖消費者方面的一些疲軟影響，然後對需求彈性發表評論將是有幫助的。

Yes.

是的。

Great questions, Kevin.

好問題，凱文。

I guess the short answer is, regarding pickup, not yet.

我想簡短的回答是，關於皮卡，還沒有。

And organic was down about 13%, with continued improvement in North America, but I would say that improvement was more on the wipers and safety business than on the core washroom business.

隨著北美的持續改善，有機產品下降了約 13%，但我想說的是，與核心洗手間業務相比，雨刷和安全業務的改善更多。

The washroom business was down about 35%, so above where it's been.

洗手間業務下降了約 35%，因此高於過去的水平。

I did say mobility is improving.

我確實說過流動性正在改善。

So again, just to refresh your memory, I think January, February was down about 30%.

再說一次，為了刷新你的記憶，我認為 1 月、2 月下降了 30% 左右。

And then in March, it had improved to being down 15%.

然後在三月份，它已經改善到下降了 15%。

It isn't flowing through to our washroom business yet, and our business tends to be concentrated in travel and lodging, offices and high-traffic locations like sporting events.

它還沒有流向我們的洗手間業務，我們的業務往往集中在旅遊和住宿、辦公室和體育賽事等人流量大的地方。

So we may see some of that start to pick up as we go forward, but I do think that has been lagging.

因此，隨著我們前進，我們可能會看到其中一些開始回升，但我確實認為這已經滯後。

And these sectors that we tend to play harder in tend to lag the overall mobility a little bit.

而這些我們傾向於更加努力的行業往往會稍微落後於整體流動性。

I want to point out wipers and safety were up strong double digits in the quarter.

我想指出，雨刷器和安全性在本季度實現了兩位數的強勁增長。

We feel great about the momentum of that business.

我們對這項業務的發展勢頭感到非常滿意。

And regarding your pricing, Kevin, there has been some significant pricing on the glove side in our safety business that's driven a lot of the pricing.

關於你的定價，凱文，在我們的安全業務中，手套方面有一些重要的定價，這推動了很多定價。

So I wouldn't say it's -- the elasticity is probably coming in as we planned.

所以我不會說它 - 彈性可能會按照我們的計劃出現。

It's just that there's been some unusual pricing, unusually high pricing on the safety side.

只是在安全方面出現了一些不尋常的定價，異常高的定價。

Got it.

知道了。

Very helpful.

很有幫助。

If I could just squeeze in one more.

如果我能再擠一個。

This will be, Mike, for you and Maria as well.

這將是，邁克，對你和瑪麗亞也是如此。

Just on -- I think it's building on some of Lauren's question, the decision to maintain advertising and marketing levels, which I think there were some questions among the investment community whether the company would decide to do that given increased commodity costs.

就在 - 我認為它建立在 Lauren 的一些問題之上，即維持廣告和營銷水平的決定，我認為投資界存在一些問題，鑑於商品成本增加，公司是否會決定這樣做。

Mike, of course, this has been a big focus of yours since taking over.

邁克，當然，自從你接手以來，這一直是你的重點。

Can you talk about how internally those discussions went, just given the significant commodity cost pressure, the balance maybe considering pulling back a little bit, your visibility on ROI and what's an arguably a really volatile environment and maybe some of the ROI models sort of less reliable given that context?

你能談談這些討論在內部是如何進行的嗎在這種情況下可靠嗎？

Maybe just a little bit there in terms of what went into decision-making and the visibility you feel like you have on maintaining these levels?

就決策制定的內容以及您在維持這些水平方面的知名度而言，也許只是一點點？

And then I'll pass it on.

然後我會傳下去。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Kevin, I think you're all over the issues as we discussed them.

凱文，我想你在我們討論的問題上都已經解決了。

One point is we feel like we have strong brand momentum, as I just rattled off a bunch of share, and growth in what I would say are still fairly choppy waters in the categories.

有一點是我們覺得我們擁有強大的品牌動力，因為我剛剛分享了一堆份額，而我所說的增長在這些類別中仍然是相當波濤洶湧的水域。

But we feel great about the share momentum of our business globally.

但我們對我們在全球範圍內的業務份額勢頭感到滿意。

And really, we can tie it back to the investments we're making in product quality, innovation and marketing and team execution, which is excellent.

真的，我們可以將其與我們在產品質量、創新、營銷和團隊執行方面的投資聯繫起來，這非常好。

So we feel good about that.

所以我們對此感覺很好。

There has been some discussion around that.

圍繞這一點進行了一些討論。

I will say we will make some adjustments, but in a small manner.

我會說我們會做出一些調整，但幅度很小。

Overall, we want to maintain our investment levels.

總的來說，我們希望保持我們的投資水平。

But for example, in North America, where we have supply constraints, it may not be the highest ROI decision in the short term to be driving, let's say, promotions in that business when you don't have supply.

但是例如，在我們有供應限制的北美，在沒有供應的情況下推動該業務的促銷活動可能不是短期內投資回報率最高的決定。

So we will make some tactical adjustments.

所以我們會做一些戰術上的調整。

But overall, I think your point on ROI is also important, which is it is going to vary.

但總的來說，我認為您關於投資回報率的觀點也很重要，因為它會有所不同。

We don't have the latest data for ROIs on the quarter.

我們沒有本季度投資回報率的最新數據。

But generally, our marketing ROIs, especially digital, has been very strong.

但總的來說，我們的營銷投資回報率，尤其是數字化投資回報率非常高。

And so it may not be the lever that we traditionally think of when cost conditions get a little tough because it's hard to see how cutting advertising, if it's working that effectively for us, actually helps the P&L.

因此，當成本條件變得有點艱難時，它可能不是我們傳統上認為的槓桿，因為很難看出削減廣告如果對我們有效，實際上如何幫助損益。

But as you can imagine, we had pretty extensive discussions at the market-by-market level to review the advertising plans for 2021 given the environment.

但正如你可以想像的那樣，我們在逐個市場層面進行了相當廣泛的討論，以根據環境審查 2021 年的廣告計劃。

Where we believe we've got strong ROIs, it makes sense to continue to spend the dollars because we're getting the payback on those dollars.

在我們認為我們有強大的投資回報率的地方，繼續花錢是有道理的，因為我們正在從這些錢上得到回報。

But we did have some pretty deep internal discussions around that.

但我們確實圍繞這個進行了一些非常深入的內部討論。

And while it varies by market and by product line, the decisions, what I'd say is, in our current outlook, we're expecting advertising spending to be relatively similar to 2020 levels on a dollar basis.

雖然它因市場和產品線而異，但我想說的是，在我們目前的前景中，我們預計廣告支出將以美元計算與 2020 年的水平相對相似。

And on a percentage of sales basis, that -- it will be in line with our original plan coming into the year.

在銷售額的百分比基礎上，這將符合我們今年的原始計劃。

All of that said, the mix of it and where it is and on what it is, is different than we would have expected 3 months ago.

綜上所述，它的組合、它在哪里以及它是什麼，與我們在 3 個月前的預期不同。

But in total, that's kind of how we're thinking about it.

但總的來說，這就是我們的想法。

Our next question is from Steve Powers with the Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的史蒂夫鮑爾斯。

I guess maybe just to round out what we've talked about so far, can you just talk about the context of the cadence of your EPS guidance over the balance of the year?

我想也許只是為了完善我們到目前為止所討論的內容，您能否談談您的 EPS 指導在今年餘下時間的節奏背景？

Because obviously, 1Q was a tough start.

因為很明顯，第一季度是一個艱難的開始。

It sounds like 2Q is going to be directionally tough as well, at least from an EPS perspective.

至少從每股收益的角度來看，聽起來第二季度也將在方向上變得艱難。

So when you talk about meaningful EPS growth in the back half, I guess, is there a way to better frame what that looks like and how confident you are in the drivers?

因此，當您談論後半部分有意義的每股收益增長時，我想，有沒有一種方法可以更好地描述這種情況以及您對驅動因素的信心？

I guess -- because it sounds like there's going to be back half-loaded savings, and I'm assuming you have good visibility there.

我猜——因為這聽起來像是要節省一半的錢，我假設你在那裡有很好的能見度。

But I just think -- what I'm hearing this morning, just a lot of investors are concerned about market share movements in the back half, elasticity in the back half and the actual efficacy of pricing rolling through, just given lost sales that you've highlighted in the first half and then differences in the way that you've announced price increases this year versus what we heard from P&G earlier in the week.

但我只是想——我今天早上聽到的，只是很多投資者擔心後半部分的市場份額變動、後半部分的彈性和定價滾動的實際效果，只是考慮到你的銷售損失'已經強調了上半年，然後你宣布今年價格上漲的方式與我們在本週早些時候從寶潔那裡聽到的不同。

So just any thoughts you have around that would be very helpful.

因此，您的任何想法都會非常有幫助。

Sure.

當然。

I'll give some broad commentary, and then Mike can talk more specifically about pricing.

我將給出一些廣泛的評論，然後邁克可以更具體地談論定價。

But when we look at the second half, we are expecting a stronger second half, and that is for a few reasons.

但是當我們看下半年時，我們預計下半年會更強勁，這有幾個原因。

The biggest reason being that our pricing actions and the benefits of that will be coming through the P&L in the second half.

最大的原因是我們的定價行動及其收益將在下半年通過損益表實現。

In terms of input cost inflation that is ramping in the first quarter and the second quarter, we expect that it will peak and then moderate and, in some cases, come down a bit in the second half.

就第一季度和第二季度的投入成本通脹而言，我們預計它將達到頂峰，然後放緩，在某些情況下，下半年會有所下降。

Additionally, we've got our savings program ramping as you can tell from the FORCE cost savings of $65 million in the first quarter and the outlook of $340 million to $380 million for the full year.

此外，從第一季度 FORCE 成本節省 6500 萬美元和全年 3.4 億至 3.8 億美元的前景可以看出，我們的儲蓄計劃正在逐步擴大。

So those will be ramping as is typical in a typical year.

因此，這些將像典型的一年一樣逐漸增加。

And then we also have some elevated costs in the first half of the year, which will come down some in the second half of the year.

然後我們在上半年也有一些成本上升，下半年會下降一些。

So we've good visibility into it.

所以我們對它有很好的了解。

The -- when I look at the factors driving that, the one area that has some, what's the word I would use, some dynamism around it would be pricing.

- 當我看到推動這一點的因素時，一個領域有一些，我會用什麼詞，圍繞它的一些活力將是定價。

So I'll let Mike talk a little bit more about how we see that come to fruition.

所以我會讓邁克多談談我們如何看到它實現的。

Yes.

是的。

So -- Steve, so we did make assumptions in our pricing around the elasticity impact.

所以——史蒂夫，所以我們在定價中確實圍繞彈性影響做出了假設。

We do have volume coming out of the plan as it relates to pricing.

我們確實有來自計劃的數量，因為它與定價有關。

I would say we have good experience from it from just a couple of years ago.

我會說我們從幾年前就有很好的經驗。

And in general, our calls regarding elasticity, generally, were in the ballpark of what our original plans were.

總的來說，我們關於彈性的呼籲與我們最初的計劃大致相同。

And so we feel good about kind of our ability to call it.

所以我們對我們稱之為它的能力感覺很好。

But the one difference I would say in this market would be what exactly happens due to the COVID environment and some of the volatility related to that, and then we did have some assumptions regarding competitive price points, which we still need to learn how that's going to be executed.

但我要說的這個市場的一個區別是，由於 COVID 環境以及與之相關的一些波動性，究竟會發生什麼，然後我們確實對有競爭力的價格點有一些假設，我們仍然需要了解情況如何被執行。

Yes.

是的。

One other comment that I'll make just in terms of phasing, to put a point on it, is you know our performance in the first quarter.

我將就分階段提出的另一條評論是，您知道我們在第一季度的表現。

When I look at the second quarter, while we don't provide detailed quarterly guidance, we do expect that second quarter conditions will remain challenging and that, that will show up in the numbers.

當我查看第二季度時，雖然我們沒有提供詳細的季度指導，但我們確實預計第二季度的情況將仍然充滿挑戰，這將體現在數字中。

And if you think through some of those factors, there'll be more cost inflation that's coming in ahead of most of our new selling price increases.

如果你仔細考慮其中的一些因素，在我們大部分新的售價上漲之前，將會出現更多的成本通脹。

So we'll have escalated costs before the pricing is really getting into the market.

因此，在定價真正進入市場之前，我們將增加成本。

We'll be working through the tail end of the supply chain disruptions in North America that Mike already commented on, and then the category dynamics in consumer tissue and K-C Professional are more volatile than normal.

我們將解決邁克已經評論過的北美供應鏈中斷的尾端，然後消費者組織和 K-C 專業的類別動態比正常情況更不穩定。

And then as we said in the prepared remarks, we do expect that the between-the-lines spending will pick up from a relatively low level in the first quarter, and that includes more investment spending.

然後正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，我們確實預計線間支出將從第一季度相對較低的水平回升，其中包括更多的投資支出。

And then in addition to all of that, it's worth noting that we had all-time record earnings in the second quarter of 2020 behind very strong volume growth in consumer tissue.

除了所有這些，值得注意的是，我們在 2020 年第二季度的創紀錄收益背後是消費紙巾的強勁銷量增長。

And last year, we also had commodity tailwinds.

去年，我們也有商品順風。

And in the second quarter, we had very strong FORCE cost savings.

在第二季度，我們節省了非常強勁的 FORCE 成本。

So all of that is shaping up to have challenging conditions for the second quarter with our performance picking up in the second half of the year.

因此，隨著我們的業績在下半年有所回升，所有這一切都將在第二季度面臨挑戰。

Okay.

好的。

That's very helpful.

這很有幫助。

And I guess, if I could, just to -- like how are you thinking about this setback in terms of the lower outlook for '21 from -- in terms of the lasting impacts here?

我想，如果可以的話，就像你如何看待這次挫折，因為 21 年的前景較低 - 就這裡的持久影響而言？

Because I guess, when I think about it in the context of K-C Strategy '22, we've been talking about the mid-single-digit EPS CAGR for a while ever since that strategy was unveiled.

因為我想，當我在 K-C 戰略 '22 的背景下考慮它時，自從該戰略公佈以來，我們一直在談論中個位數的 EPS 複合年增長率。

And I think we've all been doing that in our conversations, at least with kind of like a 5% CAGR in mind.

而且我認為我們在談話中一直在這樣做，至少考慮到 5% 的複合年增長率。

And quite frankly, you sound -- you seem very much on track and even ahead in terms of your strategic investments coming into the year.

坦率地說，你聽起來 - 在今年的戰略投資方面，你似乎非常順利，甚至領先。

So in that context, is this -- are you approaching this kind of setback in early '21 as a speed bump on that path?

因此，在這種情況下，您是否在 21 年初將這種挫折視為這條道路上的減速帶？

Or is this likely to have more enduring impacts into '22?

還是這可能會對 22 年產生更持久的影響？

And I'm not asking for '22 guidance, I'm just trying to understand how your -- how impactful this is as you think about it in the context of that broader strategy?

而且我不是在要求 22 年的指導，我只是想了解你的 - 當你在更廣泛的戰略背景下思考它時，這有多大的影響？

Yes.

是的。

I'll check and see if I understand the question, but I think we view it as a temporary impact that should not affect our long-term strategy.

我會檢查一下我是否理解這個問題，但我認為我們認為這是一種暫時的影響，不應影響我們的長期戰略。

That's why we are continuing to invest in our brands.

這就是為什麼我們將繼續投資於我們的品牌。

I think -- as I said before, I think our investments are working.

我認為 - 正如我之前所說，我認為我們的投資正在發揮作用。

We feel great about where the brands are going.

我們對品牌的發展方向感覺很好。

And -- but I don't really want to take apart what we're doing in China because we had a plant that came down for a week in Texas.

而且——但我真的不想拆開我們在中國所做的事情，因為我們有一家工廠在德克薩斯州停產了一周。

And so that's kind of how we're thinking about it.

這就是我們的想法。

And so we recognize what our medium-term guidance has been.

因此，我們認識到我們的中期指導方針是什麼。

We plan to hit that over the long term.

我們計劃長期實現這一目標。

We also recognize that we want to accelerate organic growth beyond what our medium-term guidance was, and what -- we are making progress on that.

我們還認識到，我們希望在我們的中期指導之外加速有機增長，並且我們正在這方面取得進展。

But recognize that we operate environments like COVID -- affected by COVID, and also now this, I think, once-in-a-lifetime -- at least, living here in Texas, a once-in-a-lifetime storm that we always prepare for.

但是要認識到，我們操作的環境就像 COVID 一樣——受 COVID 的影響，而且現在，我認為，這是千載難逢的——至少，生活在德克薩斯州，這是一場我們一生一次的風暴時刻準備著。

We always prepare for it, but you never really think it's going to happen.

我們總是為此做好準備，但您永遠不會真正認為它會發生。

But the teams are doing a great job responding to the challenge and doing the best with what they can.

但是團隊在應對挑戰方面做得很好，並儘其所能做到最好。

And our suppliers are doing a great job partnering with us.

我們的供應商與我們合作做得很好。

So again, I think it's a -- I feel like it's a temporary effect.

再說一次，我認為這是一個 - 我覺得這是一個暫時的影響。

Maria?

瑪麗亞？

Yes, I would agree.

是的，我同意。

And we've been encouraging people to take a 2-year look on our business given the meaningful effects that the COVID-related dynamics have had on primarily the tissue categories, both on the consumer side and the professional side.

我們一直鼓勵人們對我們的業務進行為期 2 年的審視，因為與 COVID 相關的動態主要對紙巾類別產生了有意義的影響，無論是在消費者方面還是專業方面。

So -- yes, when you look at our performance last year, it's especially in the first half where we had the incredible shift in demand and some stock-up dynamics.

所以 - 是的，當您查看我們去年的表現時，尤其是在上半年，我們的需求發生了令人難以置信的變化和一些庫存動態。

We didn't expect that to change our long-term outlook for the business.

我們沒想到這會改變我們對業務的長期前景。

And when you look at this year with the consumer destocking around consumer tissue this year, we expected that consumer destocking would happen.

當你看今年消費者圍繞消費紙巾去庫存時，我們預計消費者去庫存會發生。

We didn't expect that it would happen as quickly as it appears to be happening.

我們沒想到它會像看起來發生的那樣迅速發生。

So if you look at the business over a 2-year period where we had net benefits from COVID last year, we've got some net-net headwinds on the consumer tissue side this year.

因此，如果您看一下我們去年從 COVID 中獲得淨收益的 2 年業務，今年我們在消費者紙巾方面遇到了一些淨不利因素。

The performance over the 2 years is -- actually looks good relative to our medium-term guidance and does not affect the long-term outlook for our business.

相對於我們的中期指導，兩年的表現實際上看起來不錯，並且不會影響我們業務的長期前景。

It's just we have this 2-year period of big impacts from COVID-related items.

只是我們在這 2 年中受到與 COVID 相關項目的重大影響。

Our next question comes from Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jason English。

I was hoping you could provide a little more context on cadence of your expected price realization, particularly relative to the promotional environment.

我希望你能提供更多關於預期價格實現節奏的背景信息，特別是相對於促銷環境。

One thing that really stood out this quarter was the deterioration of the pricing environment in North America tissue.

本季度真正引人注目的一件事是北美紙巾定價環境的惡化。

I mean, last quarter, you reported, I think, 11% price growth in North America on lower promotions with price/mix plus A. We're back to neutral already.

我的意思是，上個季度，我認為，由於價格/組合加上 A 的較低促銷活動，北美的價格增長了 11%。我們已經回到中性狀態。

It looks like promotions are coming back certainly faster than I expected.

看起來促銷活動的回歸速度肯定比我預期的要快。

Is that indeed what you're seeing?

你看到的真的是這樣嗎？

And how much of a negating factor on your price will -- your price increase will have?

你的價格會有多少負面因素——你的價格上漲會有多少？

Yes.

是的。

Before Mike jumps in, I would call out that we had an unusually high price effect show up in the fourth quarter of last year that had to do with the timing on accruals, where we had an accrual true-up in the fourth quarter that caused that to be unusually high.

在邁克加入之前，我會指出去年第四季度出現了異常高的價格效應，這與應計的時間有關，我們在第四季度進行了應計調整，導致那是異常高的。

It was not indicative necessarily of the market environment, so I wouldn't so much compare to the fourth quarter.

這不一定代表市場環境，所以我不會與第四季度相比。

I'd point you more to the full year average from last year or at least the last 3 quarters of last year.

我會更多地指出去年或至少去年最後三個季度的全年平均值。

But Mike, I'll have you comment.

但是邁克，我會讓你發表評論。

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

So overall, Jason, that's why knowing that we had some different items in that statement, I would say, overall, we still view the North American market across personal care and tissue to be constructive.

所以總的來說，傑森，這就是為什麼知道我們在該聲明中有一些不同的項目，我想說，總的來說，我們仍然認為北美市場的個人護理和紙巾是有建設性的。

I think promotional volume in personal care returned to what I recall, I think, our team calls normalized levels a few quarters ago.

我認為個人護理的促銷量回到了我記得的水平，我認為，我們的團隊在幾個季度前稱之為標準化水平。

And so it's proceeded along that path.

所以它沿著這條路前進。

And I would say it's -- that's kind of where personal care is.

我想說的是——這就是個人護理的地方。

In tissue, I would say, promotional levels for us, at least our perception is and our planning is a little -- still lower than where it had been, and primarily because we still have been in tight supply.

在紙巾方面，我想說，我們的促銷水平，至少我們的看法和我們的計劃有點 - 仍然低於以前的水平，主要是因為我們仍然供應緊張。

Obviously, given kind of where demand is going, that supply situation is getting reversed a little bit now.

顯然，考慮到需求的去向，這種供應情況現在正在發生一些逆轉。

But again, we don't have significant plans in the first half to promote aggressively.

但同樣，我們在上半年沒有重大計劃來積極推廣。

And frankly, as you've heard me say before, we remain committed to our journey on the high road, and we really believe we want to grow our brands by investing in products and innovation and advertising.

坦率地說，正如你之前聽到我所說的，我們仍然致力於我們在高速路上的旅程，我們真的相信我們希望通過投資產品、創新和廣告來發展我們的品牌。

And so overpromoting categories for us in a fixed consumption category does not feel like a healthy way for the business.

因此，對於我們來說，在固定消費類別中過度宣傳品類對企業來說並不是一種健康的方式。

So again, I would say, overall, the market appears to us constructive.

所以，我想說，總的來說，市場在我們看來是建設性的。

No, that's good context.

不，這是很好的背景。

I appreciate that.

我很感激。

I guess I didn't realize there was such a big onetime benefit in the fourth quarter last year.

我想我沒有意識到去年第四季度有這麼大的一次性收益。

Quick math on that suggests it was almost $100 million, which suggests you're going to have north of $0.20 EPS headwind in the fourth quarter.

對此的快速數學表明，它幾乎是 1 億美元，這表明你將在第四季度遇到每股 0.20 美元以上的逆風。

Is that right?

是對的嗎？

And given that your guidance is still back half-weighted, how are you going to overcome such a big hurdle?

鑑於您的指導仍然是一半，您將如何克服如此大的障礙？

Yes.

是的。

Our guidance balances a lot of different moving factors, as I described earlier, and yes, I won't repeat myself in going through those points.

正如我之前所描述的，我們的指導平衡了許多不同的移動因素，是的，我不會在這些要點中重複自己。

If you look at the pricing on consumer tissue from last year and you look at the trends, it's about 1% in the first half, flat in the third quarter, and then the net benefit of 6% in the fourth quarter.

如果你看一下去年消費紙巾的定價和趨勢，上半年約為 1%，第三季度持平，第四季度淨利潤為 6%。

And so I'd -- as I said, I'd encourage you to look at the full year and trust that we've taken all of the various factors into our second half outlook commentary.

所以我 - 正如我所說，我鼓勵你看看全年並相信我們已經將所有各種因素納入我們的下半年展望評論。

Yes.

是的。

And Jason, you've been in our chair, so I think you recognize kind of we have a lot of -- what we're paid to manage through these things.

傑森，你一直擔任我們的主席，所以我想你認識到我們有很多 - 我們通過這些事情來管理的東西。

And so these things come up every year.

所以這些事情每年都會出現。

And so as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we know how to manage through these situations, and we will.

正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們知道如何應對這些情況，我們會的。

Our next question comes from Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

So I have a 3-parted question, please.

所以我有一個三部分的問題，拜託。

I'm sorry for that.

我很抱歉。

The first one, if you can comment on the competitive environment in personal care outside North America?

第一個，能否評論一下北美以外的個人護理領域的競爭環境？

I think you called out some market share gains, which are encouraging.

我認為你提到了一些市場份額的增長，這是令人鼓舞的。

But first on China, we heard comments from one of your competitors that the market share -- the market has been more competitive as of late in diapers.

但首先在中國，我們聽到您的一個競爭對手的評論說市場份額 - 市場最近在紙尿褲方面更具競爭力。

What have you seen in your share dynamics there?

您在那裡的股票動態中看到了什麼？

That's the first part.

這是第一部分。

And then the second one is on the call out for the price increases you've taken in Europe and LatAm.

然後第二個是呼籲您在歐洲和拉丁美洲採取的價格上漲。

And obviously, you have some competitors that are local and reporting different currencies.

顯然，您有一些本地競爭對手，並且報告不同的貨幣。

So have you seen any results of -- I mean, I know you had amazing results in Brazil in the first quarter.

所以你有沒有看到任何結果 - 我的意思是，我知道你在第一季度在巴西取得了驚人的成績。

But have you taken prices there already?

但是你已經在那裡定價了嗎？

And with the government incentives fading, how do you expect that to be in the balance of the year?

隨著政府激勵措施的消退，您預計今年的餘額將如何？

And sorry, the third part is what is embedded in the KCP guidance?

抱歉，第三部分是 KCP 指南中嵌入的內容？

Your comments about the washrooms coming in a little bit more -- obviously, it's travel-related, a bit more backloaded.

你對洗手間的評論更多了——顯然，它與旅行有關，更多的是後載。

What are you expecting for that business at the balance of the year?

在今年年末，您對該業務有何期待？

Okay.

好的。

All right.

好的。

I'll try to -- I'll start with the, yes, competitive environment.

我會嘗試——我會從，是的，競爭環境開始。

Overall, again, I think we've been competing, as I mentioned, Andrea, kind of in this high-road approach, which would be, again, build the brands through quality, innovation, marketing and local execution that's very, very good.

總的來說，我認為我們一直在競爭，正如我所提到的，安德里亞，有點像這種公路方式，這將再次通過質量、創新、營銷和本地執行來建立品牌，這非常非常好.

And so that feels like to us has been working very effectively, China especially.

所以這對我們來說感覺一直非常有效，尤其是中國。

We were up double digits in China across both fem care and diapers.

在中國，我們在女性護理和尿布方面都實現了兩位數的增長。

So we feel great about their business.

所以我們對他們的業務感覺很好。

Organic was up over 20% in China in the quarter, and Huggies was up double digits, and that was driven by volume and what I would say is a premiumizing mix.

本季度有機在中國增長了 20% 以上，而 Huggies 增長了兩位數，這是由銷量驅動的，我想說的是一種高端化的組合。

And so our share is up, as I mentioned, almost 3 points.

因此，正如我所提到的，我們的份額上升了近 3 個百分點。

And we feel like we have the best product in the marketplace.

我們覺得我們擁有市場上最好的產品。

And the teams are very good on both baby and in fem care around digital marketing agility.

並且團隊在圍繞數字營銷敏捷性的嬰兒和女性護理方面都非常出色。

And so they're very good at building that digital relationship with consumers.

因此，他們非常擅長與消費者建立數字關係。

And so I think that's been a key component of driving our business.

所以我認為這是推動我們業務的關鍵組成部分。

And so yes, I think the market may be getting a little bit more competitive, but we still feel like the Chinese consumer is looking for high-quality products.

所以是的，我認為市場可能會變得更有競爭力，但我們仍然覺得中國消費者正在尋找高質量的產品。

And right now, they view our products as being the best in the marketplace.

現在，他們認為我們的產品是市場上最好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And on the price increases in Europe and LatAm, if you can comment on those?

關於歐洲和拉美的價格上漲，您能否對此發表評論？

Yes.

是的。

I would say, overall, we have announced pricing in Europe, and we have been announcing pricing fairly continuously in Latin America.

我想說，總的來說，我們已經宣布了在歐洲的定價，並且我們一直在相當連續地在拉丁美洲宣布定價。

So in general, I would say, we have seen competitive -- competitors move pricing in Europe.

所以總的來說，我會說，我們已經看到了競爭——競爭對手在歐洲改變定價。

And then locally, in Latin America, it has been mixed.

然後在當地，在拉丁美洲，情況好壞參半。

And so we have seen pricing moves from some of the large competitors, and then there have been 1 or 2 local ones that have not moved.

因此，我們看到一些大型競爭對手的定價變動，然後有 1 或 2 個本地競爭者沒有變動。

And so that's just a dynamic that's been going on for a year or so now, and our teams have been able to operate within.

所以這只是一個已經持續了一年左右的動態，我們的團隊已經能夠在其中運作。

And on KCP?

在KCP上？

Sorry for the 3-parted question.

抱歉，這個問題分為三部分。

Okay.

好的。

Yes, the KCP, I think, the guide is, yes, we do see -- we are planning for sequential improvement throughout the course of the year.

是的，我認為，KCP 指南是，是的，我們確實看到了——我們計劃在全年進行連續改進。

And again, as Maria mentioned earlier, we're seeing mobility pick up faster.

再一次，正如 Maria 之前提到的，我們看到移動性加快了。

But in the KCP business, it hasn't flown through the washroom segments that we typically play stronger in.

但在 KCP 業務中，它並沒有通過我們通常發揮更大作用的洗手間領域。

And so we will -- we do expect to see that occur as more people get back to work.

所以我們會——我們確實希望看到隨著更多人重返工作崗位而發生這種情況。

I do think it's related to, at least in North America, what would be a faster vaccine rollout that we initially saw as we were ending last year.

我確實認為，至少在北美，這與我們在去年結束時最初看到的更快的疫苗推出有關。

Our next question comes from Chris Carey with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行證券公司的 Chris Carey。

So just one follow-up and then another question.

所以只有一個跟進，然後是另一個問題。

So just on the follow-up to a prior question, I know that you're planning to keep promotional levels steady, or at least, below pre-pandemic levels.

因此，就上一個問題的後續行動而言，我知道您計劃將促銷水平保持穩定，或者至少低於大流行前的水平。

Can you just comment on maybe how much control you would have over that situation, say, if overall category promotions were to start to take off, right?

您能否評論一下您對這種情況的控製程度，例如，如果整體類別促銷開始起飛，對嗎？

So from a competitive standpoint, would you follow those promotions?

那麼從競爭的角度來看，你會遵循這些促銷活動嗎？

Or do you have levers that you can deploy to keep market share if competitive activity reflected in higher promo were to take off?

或者，如果更高促銷活動中反映的競爭活動起飛，您是否有可以部署的槓桿來保持市場份額？

And then my question is just around -- there's been a lot of focus on 2021, I think appropriately so.

然後我的問題就在附近——人們非常關注 2021 年，我認為是恰當的。

There's also this broader narrative around unemployment rates, impact on birth rates, certainly, developed markets coming back a bit faster than emerging markets.

還有關於失業率、對出生率的影響的更廣泛的敘述，當然，發達市場的複蘇速度要快於新興市場。

But can you just talk about what you would expect from a category growth rate standpoint, say, over the next 6 to 12 months and maybe even a bit longer term as well?

但是，您能否談談您對品類增長率的預期，例如，在接下來的 6 到 12 個月甚至更長時間內？

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

I'll try to address, Chris.

我會試著解決，克里斯。

On overall promotion, I would say our approach is to kind of grow the brands through investing in the quality of the products and in advertising.

關於整體推廣，我想說我們的方法是通過投資產品質量和廣告來發展品牌。

And then with digital, that's quite an effective tool for us.

然後有了數字，這對我們來說是一個非常有效的工具。

I mean not only is -- digital tends to be higher ROI than any of our other spends, including retail promotions, it's also -- you get faster feedback on its performance, right?

我的意思不僅是——數字化往往比我們的任何其他支出（包括零售促銷）都具有更高的投資回報率，而且——你可以更快地獲得關於其績效的反饋，對吧？

So again, I think we have plenty of levers.

再說一次，我認為我們有很多槓桿。

We did shift to this approach a couple of years ago, and I think it's working very effectively for us.

幾年前我們確實轉向了這種方法，我認為它對我們來說非常有效。

So if you ask kind of do we have the levers in our control?

因此，如果您問我們是否有控制權？

I would say yes.

我會說是的。

And what we feel good about is we have programs developed that are robust in that sense.

我們感到高興的是，我們開發的程序在這個意義上是強大的。

And as I just rattled off a bunch of these shares, we feel like those are working very effectively.

當我剛剛匆匆說了一堆這樣的股票時，我們覺得這些股票的工作非常有效。

That said, we want to be competitive on price or promotions.

也就是說，我們希望在價格或促銷方面具有競爭力。

But I don't think promotions in a fixed consumption category are the right long-term way to grow the category.

但我不認為固定消費類別的促銷是增長該類別的正確長期方式。

Because it's different than, let's say, an impulse category like cookies, where you can drive incremental consumption through promotion.

因為它不同於，比如說，像餅乾這樣的衝動類別，你可以通過促銷來推動增量消費。

Our categories, you generally don't drive incremental consumption.

我們的品類，你一般不會帶動增量消費。

You can drive share, but I'd rather earn our share rather than rent our share for the short term.

你可以推動份額，但我寧願賺取我們的份額，也不願短期租用我們的份額。

And it's a very expensive way to rent share, right?

這是一種非常昂貴的租賃方式，對吧？

So again, we do have the levers.

再說一次，我們確實有槓桿。

And by the way, we're making significant investment in our revenue growth management capabilities.

順便說一句，我們正在對我們的收入增長管理能力進行重大投資。

So we have the tools.

所以我們有工具。

And even if we were to invest more in promotion, I think we'd be very selective in terms of how we spent it, and we would want to make that efficient as well.

即使我們要在推廣上投入更多，我認為我們在如何使用它方面會非常有選擇性，我們也希望提高效率。

I don't know if that addressed your question on that part.

我不知道這是否解決了您在這方面的問題。

Yes, that's helpful.

是的，這很有幫助。

And then just on the birth rate dynamic, are you starting to see more impact in your results?

然後就出生率動態而言，您是否開始看到對您的結果產生更大的影響？

Would you expect category slowing?

你會期待品類放緩嗎？

I wonder if you can maybe divide your comments between developing markets where maybe birth rates come down, but you have more of a GDP per cap upside type drivers?

我想知道您是否可以將您的評論分為出生率可能下降的發展中市場，但您有更多的人均 GDP 上行驅動因素？

So anyways, just the broader question there is just around near- and medium-term expectations for birth rates and whether you're starting to see some slowing there?

所以無論如何，更廣泛的問題是關於出生率的近期和中期預期，以及你是否開始看到那裡的一些放緩？

Yes.

是的。

Great question, Chris.

好問題，克里斯。

And we are seeing a little slowing in the birth rate overall, both in developed and developing markets.

我們看到，無論是在發達市場還是發展中市場，總體出生率都有所放緩。

For instance, in the U.S., where the data typically lags, we were down about 1 point.

例如，在數據通常滯後的美國，我們下降了大約 1 個百分點。

The birth rate was down about 1 point in 2019.

2019年出生率下降了約1個百分點。

The latest data, although it's not officially published, I think, Paul, but it would say roughly down 3% last year.

最新的數據，雖然沒有正式公佈，我想，保羅，但它會說去年大約下降了 3%。

And so that was a slowdown.

所以這是一個放緩。

And we're seeing some of that, too, where you may have read in China the birth rate has come down significantly as well.

我們也看到了一些這樣的情況，你可能已經讀到中國的出生率也顯著下降。

I think the balancing factor, there's a couple of different components.

我認為平衡因素，有幾個不同的組成部分。

One is our core strategy is to elevate our categories by creating more value-added products and premiumizing our mix over time.

一是我們的核心戰略是通過創造更多增值產品和隨著時間的推移優化我們的產品組合來提升我們的品類。

And that's really taking hold.

這真的很重要。

And as I mentioned, we're up almost 3 share points in China.

正如我所提到的，我們在中國的份額上升了近 3 個百分點。

That's all through a premium mix of products.

這一切都是通過優質的產品組合實現的。

And for instance, this year, we have the best product we feel like in what we call our Tier 6, which is our premium tier.

例如，今年，我們擁有我們認為最好的產品，我們稱之為第 6 層，這是我們的高級層。

We are launching a Tier 7 product that brings a lot of the features that we have in our current premium products and escalate them further.

我們正在推出第 7 層產品，它帶來了我們當前高級產品中的許多功能，並進一步升級它們。

And we're launching Tier 7 at a 50% premium to Tier 6. And so I do think, in some markets like China, where the consumer certainly is willing to pay for what they -- what are better products, in the near term, we'll continue to drive our business that way.

我們推出的 Tier 7 比 Tier 6 高 50%。所以我確實認為，在中國這樣的一些市場，消費者肯定願意在短期內為他們買的東西——更好的產品買單，我們將繼續以這種方式推動我們的業務。

That said, we also have many other developing markets like Indonesia and India that are continuing to grow and where the birth rates are not as impacted yet or still maintaining their birth rates.

也就是說，我們還有許多其他發展中市場，如印度尼西亞和印度，這些市場正在繼續增長，出生率尚未受到影響或仍保持其出生率。

And also, we still have category penetration growth.

而且，我們仍然有品類滲透增長。

So again, I think we feel good about our overall strategy.

再說一次，我認為我們對我們的整體戰略感覺良好。

We recognize that the environment, likely because of COVID, has affected birth rates to some extent.

我們認識到，可能是因為新冠病毒，環境在一定程度上影響了出生率。

But we feel like our strategy is both in developed markets, which is to elevate our business and our categories and then continue to expand in D&E are the right ones for us.

但我們覺得我們的戰略既是在發達市場，也是為了提升我們的業務和我們的品類，然後繼續在 D&E 領域擴張，這對我們來說是正確的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

At this time, speakers, we have no further questioners in the queue.

目前，各位發言者，隊列中沒有其他提問者。

Okay.

好的。

I want to thank you all for joining us today.

我要感謝大家今天加入我們。

Our revised outlook really reflects some significant change in our environment.

我們修訂後的前景確實反映了我們環境的一些重大變化。

And I want to assure you that our teams are taking decisive action, and we remain very confident in our high-road approach to growing our brands.

我想向您保證，我們的團隊正在採取果斷行動，我們對我們發展品牌的高速道路仍然充滿信心。

So thank you.

所以謝謝。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's presentation.

女士們，先生們，今天的演講到此結束。

You may disconnect your phone lines, and thank you for joining us this morning.

您可以斷開電話線，感謝您今天早上加入我們。