金百利克拉克 (KMB) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day everyone, and welcome to the Kimberly-Clark third-quarter 2025 earnings call, question-and-answer session.

大家好，歡迎參加金佰利公司2025年第三季財報電話會議及問答環節。

It is now my pleasure to hand the floor over to your host Chris Jakubik, Vice President, and Investor Relations. Sir, the floor is yours.

現在我很高興將發言權交給主持人克里斯·雅庫比克（Chris Jakubik），他是副總裁兼投資者關係負責人。先生，請您發言。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. This is Chris Jakubik, Head of Investor Relations at Kimberly-Clark, and thank you for joining us. I would like to remind everyone that during our comments today we will make some forward-looking statements that are based on how we see things today. Actual results may differ due to risks and uncertainties, and these are discussed in our earnings released in our filings with the SEC.

謝謝大家，大家早安。我是金佰利公司投資人關係主管克里斯·雅庫比克，感謝您的參與。我想提醒大家，在今天的發言中，我們會做出一些基於我們目前看法的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能因風險和不確定性而有所不同，這些風險和不確定性已在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中公佈的收益報告中進行了討論。

We also discussed some non-GAAP financial measures during these remarks, and these non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered a replacement for and should be read together with GAAP results. And you can find the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within our earnings release and the supplemental materials posted at investor.kimberly-clark.com.

在這些發言中，我們也討論了一些非公認會計準則財務指標，這些非公認會計準則財務指標不應被視為公認會計準則結果的替代，而應與公認會計準則結果一起閱讀。您可以在我們的獲利報告和發佈在 investor.kimberly-clark.com 的補充資料中找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 的調整表。

With that, I will turn it over to Mike for a few opening comments.

接下來，我將把發言權交給麥克，請他做幾句開場白。

Okay. Thank you, Chris. Good morning, everyone. Our third quarter results underscore the strong progress we're making to transform Kimberly-Clark into an industry-leading personal care company. Despite a dynamic external environment, powering care continues to power our performance.

好的。謝謝你，克里斯。各位早安。我們第三季的業績凸顯了我們在將金佰利公司轉型為業界領先的個人護理公司方面取得的顯著進展。儘管外部環境瞬息萬變，但為患者提供優質照護仍然是我們取得卓越績效的動力。

It's enabling us to deliver solid results and importantly, better care for a better world. Our inflection to volume plus mix-led growth that began last year continued into the third quarter. Q3 marked Kimberly-Clark's seventh consecutive quarter of volume plus mix-led growth even as volume growth has been somewhat challenging to achieve across the broader CPG industry.

它使我們能夠取得實際成果，更重要的是，為創造更美好的世界提供更好的照護。我們從去年開始的以銷售和產品組合為主導的成長趨勢延續到了第三季。第三季標誌著金佰利連續第七個季度實現了銷售和產品組合的成長，儘管在整個消費品行業中，銷售成長一直難以實現。

We're growing volume and mix because we're meeting consumers where they need us across the good, better, best spectrum and we're well positioned to post similar growth in the fourth quarter. We held global weighted market share despite an uptick in competitive promotion activity in the quarter. We're leveraging our scale to deliver more consistent profitability in a challenging environment.

我們之所以能夠擴大銷售量和產品種類，是因為我們在好、更好、最好的各個層面上都能滿足消費者的需求，而且我們有信心在第四季實現類似的成長。儘管本季競爭對手的促銷活動有所增加，但我們仍保持了全球加權市場份額。我們正利用自身規模優勢，在充滿挑戰的環境中實現更穩定的獲利能力。

In the third quarter, we delivered consistent operating margin expansion and another quarter of industry-leading productivity, our strongest of the year to support reinvestment and profitable growth. Our rewired organization is fast tracking the best of Kimberly-Clark across our markets. The promotion of Russ Torres, to President and Chief Operating Officer, is accelerating our momentum. I'm pleased to have Russ with us today for his first earnings call as Chief Operating Officer.

第三季度，我們實現了持續的營業利潤率成長，並再次保持了行業領先的生產力，這是我們今年以來最強勁的業績，為再投資和盈利增長提供了支持。我們重組後的組織正在加速將金佰利公司最優秀的產品推廣到各個市場。Russ Torres晉升為總裁兼營運長，這將加速我們的發展勢頭。我很高興今天Russ能和我們一起參加他作為營運長的首次財報電話會議。

We're in the fourth quarter, and we're playing to win. We have sustainable momentum and the discipline and ingenuity to effectively execute our innovation-led volume plus mix driven growth strategy. We're confident in our ability to unlock our long-term potential and deliver more value for our consumers, our team, our partners and our shareholders.

現在已經是第四節了，我們的目標是贏球。我們擁有可持續的發展勢頭，以及有效執行以創新驅動銷售成長和產品組合驅動成長策略所需的紀律性和創造力。我們有信心釋放我們的長期潛力，為我們的消費者、團隊、合作夥伴和股東創造更多價值。

So with that, I'd like to open the line for questions.

那麼，接下來我將開放提問環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Javier Escalante, Evercore ISI.

Javier Escalante，Evercore ISI。

Hey, good morning. Hey, how are you guys? Good morning. Congrats on the strong results. I wonder whether you could give us an update on the competitive dynamics in US diapers when you spoke in early September, you indicated delays in marketing plans because of increased competition from retailers, private label and their Chinese imports despite tariffs.

嘿，早安。嘿，你們好嗎？早安.恭喜你們取得優異成績。我想知道您能否為我們介紹美國尿布市場的競爭動態。您在 9 月初的演講中提到，由於零售商、自有品牌及其中國進口產品（儘管有關稅）的競爭加劇，導致行銷計劃有所延遲。

So did you resume marketing plans in Q4, what's the consumer and retailer reaction to it. And in a bigger sense, is there something you can do to steer the market away from a price war, given that the US diaper market will likely trend volumes flattish given low fertility rates. Thank you.

那麼，你們在第四季恢復了行銷計畫嗎？消費者和零售商對此有何反應？從更廣義的角度來看，鑑於美國生育率低，尿布市場銷售量可能會趨於平穩，有沒有辦法引導市場避免價格戰？謝謝。

Hey, Javier. Great question. I would tell you, we saw increased competitive activity and uptick activity earlier in the quarter. I would say our teams navigated it pretty well. And I would say your point around how we want to drive the business. I think I said it in my prepared remarks, our strategy is totally innovation led.

嘿，哈維爾。問得好。我可以告訴你，我們在本季初就看到了競爭活動的增加和市場活動的上升。我認為我們的團隊應對得相當不錯。我同意你關於我們希望如何推動業務發展的觀點。我想我在事先準備好的發言稿中已經說過，我們的策略完全是以創新為主導的。

And so we're really focused on making our products better at every tier of the good, better, best spectrum. And I think that strategy, as you can see in our results, is paying off pretty well. But I'm going to ask Russ to comment because I think he's kind of closer to the action in North America and having just come out of that role. And so maybe, Russ, you may want to give them a little bit more detail.

因此，我們真正專注於讓我們的產品在好、更好、最好這三個層次的各個層面都變得更好。正如你們從我們的結果中看到的那樣，我認為這一策略取得了相當不錯的成效。但我會請拉塞爾發表評論，因為我認為他更接近北美局勢，而且他剛剛卸任那個職位。所以，Russ，或許你應該給他們更多細節。

Sure. Sure. Absolutely. Hey, Javier, Yeah, I would say, overall, as the quarter played out, you're right, we did make the decision to move some promotional activity from the third quarter to late in the third quarter, mainly the fourth quarter. And so just the update on that is we are seeing solid performance in diapers in North America.

當然。當然。絕對地。嘿，哈維爾，是的，總的來說，隨著本季度的進行，你說得對，我們確實決定將一些促銷活動從第三季度轉移到第三季度末，主要是第四季度。所以，關於尿布的最新進展是，我們在北美市場看到了穩健的銷售表現。

And so I think that has worked out thus far. So we gained 10 basis points of share in diapers in the third quarter, which frankly was maybe a little better than what we had expected, and we're up in share 90 basis points year-to-date, but I would maybe unpack a couple of topics just that I think are notable that may give you a little bit more insight to what you and everyone else might be seeing in the scanner data, and that's promotion activity and club would be the two things.

所以我覺得到目前為止，這樣做是行之有效的。因此，我們在第三季尿布市場佔有率成長了 10 個基點，坦白說，這可能比我們預期的要好一些，而且今年迄今為止我們的市佔率成長了 90 個基點。但我可能會詳細闡述幾個我認為值得注意的話題，這可能會讓您更深入地了解您和其他人可能在掃描器資料中看到的內容，那就是促銷活動和俱樂部。

So let me start with the promotional activity. Just to remind everyone, I think we mainly see promotion as a tactic to drive trial for innovation. To Mike's point, we're very focused on driving innovation and brand building and cascading that innovation across every tier of the good, better, best spectrum. And we would say that overall promotion in -- across all of our categories within North America, and that includes diapers is well down versus our 2019 levels.

那麼，就讓我先從宣傳活動說起。再次提醒大家，我認為我們主要將推廣視為推動創新試驗的策略。正如麥克所說，我們非常注重推動創新和品牌建設，並將這種創新推廣到好、更好、最好這三個層次的各個層面。我們認為，在北美地區，包括尿佈在內的所有類別的整體促銷活動都比 2019 年的水準大幅下降。

So you may see the promotional levels tick up as a result of that trial activity I talked about. And the reason for that is we've got a great lineup on innovation. We have probably the most active lineup we've had in quite some time across the good, better best tiers and just to remind everyone, we launched the blowout blocker earlier this year, Hugfit360 in our little movers tier, which is doing quite well.

因此，由於我剛才提到的試用活動，您可能會看到促銷力道有所加大。原因在於我們擁有強大的創新陣容。我們目前的產品陣容可能是近段時間以來最活躍的，涵蓋了優質、更好、最佳等各個層面。另外提醒大家，我們今年稍早推出了防爆產品 Hugfit360，屬於我們的小眾品牌級別，目前表現相當不錯。

And then, of course, we have very significant improvement in the value proposition in our mainstream lineup in Snug & Dry, where we've made great product improvements to improve softness and comfort and have introduced a superior core Generation 2 core that will improve protection, and that's off to a great start from ratings.

當然，我們的主流產品線 Snug & Dry 的價值主張也得到了非常顯著的提升，我們對產品進行了重大改進，提高了柔軟度和舒適度，並推出了更優質的第二代核心，這將提高保護性，從評級來看，這是一個良好的開端。

So our strategy had been to really use promotion to drive trial because we know when people try the product, they're going to love it and come back. And so what you're seeing is probably an uptick in that promotional activity. But I would also point out that our promotional activity in general in diapers is lower than the category. And we'd expect that as we get through the trial period, that promo activity to normalize as we get through the fourth quarter and towards the end of the year. And so that's just a little bit of an explanation behind what you might be seeing there.

因此，我們的策略是真正利用促銷活動來推動試用，因為我們知道，當人們嘗試過我們的產品後，他們就會喜歡上它並再次購買。所以你現在看到的很可能是促銷活動增加。但我還要指出，我們在尿布領域的促銷活動整體上低於該品類。我們預計，隨著試用期的結束，促銷活動將在第四季和年底前恢復正常。所以，以上就是你在那裡可能看到的內容的簡單解釋。

And then on the club mix piece, I just wanted to talk for a second about that, that you may see coming through as a little bit of a negative mix headwind in US diapers. And what's happening there, as everyone knows, is we've been experiencing double-digit growth in the club channel and that really is in response to both the consumer shifting to the club channel as well as some changes in assortment that have positively impacted our business in certain retailers.

然後，關於俱樂部混音部分，我想簡單談談，你可能會覺得它在美國流行音樂界造成了一些負面影響。如大家所知，目前俱樂部通路的銷售額實現了兩位數的成長，這既是對消費者轉向俱樂部通路的回應，也是對某些零售商的商品組合變化的正面影響。

And so we are also in parallel driving premiumization. So that's important, like the Hugfit360 that I mentioned is going to drive continued premiumization and positive mix over time. So hopefully, that sheds a little bit more light on the situation.

因此，我們也在同步推進高端化進程。所以這一點很重要，就像我提到的 Hugfit360 一樣，它將推動產品持續高端化，並隨著時間的推移實現積極的產品組合。希望這能讓大家對情況有更清晰的了解。

Yes it does. I have a follow-up.

是的，確實如此。我還有一個後續問題。

You'll be proud to know that Chris sent me that chart that you drew up 3 times, so.

你會很自豪地知道，克里斯把你畫的那張圖表發給了我三次。

I'm sorry for that. But the one thing that I would love to hear is driving positive mix because this has been your focus for a long time, right? And from the retailer standpoint, what they are doing with the Chinese hypers is a positive mix, but not necessarily to you, so what are you seeing in terms of consumer reaction to the Chinese diapers versus your intro. Is there anything that you have learned so far that give you encouraging? Or is it makes it more challenging driving positive mix

對此我深感抱歉。但我最想聽到的是關於推動正向組合的消息，因為這一直是你們關注的重點，對嗎？從零售商的角度來看，他們與中國大型超市的合作是一種積極的組合，但對你來說未必如此，那麼你認為消費者對中國尿布的反應與你推出的產品相比如何？到目前為止，你學到的哪些東西讓你感到鼓舞？或者，這是否會使推動積極組合更具挑戰性

I may start.

我或許會開始。

Go ahead, Mike.

請繼續，麥克。

Just the one thing I'll say overall that we're starting to see is I think the brand interaction tends to interact more with private label. And so there's kind of a swap in and out at the same tier. But Russ, you may want to comment further.

我只想說，我們開始看到的一點是，我認為品牌互動往往與自有品牌互動更多。因此，同一級別內會有人員的輪調。但是，Russ，你可能還想再補充一些內容。

Yeah, . I think we're doing a lot of things to drive positive mix. And I think overall, Javier, I would say, we're very confident because of our experience around the world, including in China that we make great products and consumers respond to those, and that's what the testing data shows, and I believe that's what the market reaction to our current position is showing.

是的，。我認為我們正在採取很多措施來推動積極的產品組合。總的來說，Javier，我認為，憑藉我們在世界各地（包括中國）的經驗，我們非常有信心，我們生產出優秀的產品，消費者也會對這些產品做出積極的回應，測試數據也證明了這一點，我相信市場對我們目前狀況的反應也證明了這一點。

So while you may feel like I think retailers understand that they have to balance mix. But I think more broadly, what's happening is there's a value-seeking consumer out there and the retailers are trying to adjust their assortment to help serve those needs, and so are we.

所以，雖然你可能覺得零售商明白他們必須平衡產品組合。但我認為更廣泛地說，現在的情況是，市場上存在著追求性價比的消費者，零售商正在努力調整他們的商品組合以滿足這些需求，我們也是如此。

And I think that's why we're seeing positive volume mix growth. And so I think we feel comfortable with our levers. We're doing things on pack sizes and other areas. So we're still early on in the progression of that though. So we're going to see how that plays out. And -- but I would say that given our experience globally and in North America, we're confident in our plans.

我認為這就是我們看到銷售結構呈現正面成長的原因。所以我覺得我們對目前的局面感到滿意。我們正在改進包裝尺寸和其他方面。所以，我們目前還處於這進程的早期階段。所以我們將拭目以待。但是——鑑於我們在全球和北美地區的經驗，我們對我們的計劃充滿信心。

Yeah. The confidence in our plan, Javier, comes from the fact that we're very confident in our technology and our product quality, we're competing with the low-cost diapers that you mentioned in other markets, particularly in Asia. And our products are superior, and we believe our costs are very, very competitive, if not better. So we feel good in our plan.

是的。哈維爾，我們之所以對我們的計劃充滿信心，是因為我們對自己的技術和產品品質非常有信心。正如你所提到的，我們正在與其他市場，特別是亞洲市場的低成本尿布競爭。我們的產品品質上乘，我們相信我們的成本非常有競爭力，甚至可能更低。所以我們對我們的計劃感到滿意。

Lauren Lieberman, Barclays.

勞倫·利伯曼，巴克萊銀行。

Great, thanks. Hey, good morning. In the prepared remarks that you guys published this morning, you gave, you opened the door a little bit to '26 and talked a little bit about momentum into next year. So I wanted to know if you could talk a little bit about the shape of the P&L in '26 and '27. I know you've spoken about the dilution assuming that the IFP JV kind of goes through as planned. But I think numbers are a little bit all over the place. So anything you could do to shed some light on shape of the P&L '26 and '27 would be really helpful. Thanks.

太好了，謝謝。嘿，早安。在你們今天早上發表的準備好的演講中，你們稍微談到了2026年的發展勢頭，並談到了明年的發展勢頭。所以我想知道您能否談談 2026 年和 2027 年的損益情況。我知道你曾談到股權稀釋的問題，前提是 IFP 合資企業能夠按計畫進行。但我認為這些數據有點混亂。所以，如果您能提供一些關於 2026 年和 2027 年損益表結構的信息，那就太好了。謝謝。

We're still in the throes of working through it, Lauren. So I don't -- I think it's premature for us to share too much from it. I think Nelson probably can maybe make a few remarks here.

勞倫，我們還在努力解決這個問題。所以我覺得現在分享太多內容還太早。我認為納爾遜或許可以就此發表幾點看法。

Sure. So Lauren, just to provide some perspective. And again, without getting into specifics on point estimates because we'll be providing a thorough outlook when we report our Q4 and full year results early next year. It is important to highlight that we continue to target organic growth ahead of our categories, consistent with our long-term algorithm.

當然。所以勞倫，我只是想提供一些視角。再次強調，我們不會在具體細節上給出預測，因為我們將在明年初公佈第四季度和全年業績時提供全面的展望。需要強調的是，我們將繼續優先考慮有機成長，而不是品類成長，這與我們的長期策略一致。

At operating profit, we are in the midst, as Mike said, of building plans for the next few years that should deliver our long-term constant currency operating profit growth in line with we committed to and look at as our long-term algorithm. And this includes the mitigation of the stranded costs that will result from the IFP transaction that, again, we expect to close sometime middle of next year.

正如麥克所說，在營業利潤方面，我們正在製定未來幾年的計劃，這些計劃應該能夠實現我們長期的固定匯率營業利潤增長，這與我們所承諾的以及我們視為長期演算法的目標一致。這包括減輕因 IFP 交易而產生的擱淺成本，我們預計交易將於明年年中完成。

I'd also point out that we continue to be targeting to achieve our milestones on gross margin of at least 40% and an operating profit of at least $18 million to $20 million before the end of the decade, and we're tracking fairly well in that terms. And as you say, as we get into the details of the outlook and how we think about it, first, EPS.

我還想指出，我們仍然致力於在本十年結束前實現毛利率至少達到 40% 和營業利潤至少達到 1800 萬至 2000 萬美元的里程碑目標，而且就這些方面而言，我們的進展相當順利。正如您所說，當我們深入探討前景以及我們對此的看法時，首先是每股盈餘 (EPS)。

And in the next couple of years, we need to distinguish between EPS from continuing operations, which exclude discontinued operations from EPS attributable to total KC which includes earnings from discontinued operations. So that's the first step. So for constant currency adjusted EPS growth from continuing operations in the next couple of years, all else equal and assuming that we close the transaction sometime middle of '26, we should see a step-up in growth in EPS. In EPS from continuing as income from equity companies would increase by approximately 30% year-on-year, and we'd also benefit from the use of proceeds for share buyback.

在接下來的幾年裡，我們需要區分持續經營業務的每股盈餘（不包括已終止經營業務的收益）和歸屬於 KC 總公司的每股盈餘（包括已終止經營業務的收益）。這是第一步。因此，在未來幾年內，如果其他條件不變，並且假設我們在 2026 年年中完成交易，那麼持續經營業務的固定匯率調整後的每股收益增長應該會有所提升。如果繼續從股權公司獲得收入，每股盈餘將年增約 30%，我們也將受惠於將所得款項用於股票回購。

Then the second item is adjusted EPS attributable to total KC, which, again, assuming that we close the transaction mid-2026, than constant currency growth should be somewhat more muted as we see about half of the discontinued ops income go away. And then as we go into '27, all of it go away. In the near term, we're going to continue driving underlying growth consistent with the long-term algorithm, and we will see a partial offset because of the dilution that we've been talking about.

其次，第二項是歸屬於 KC 總額的調整後每股收益，同樣假設我們在 2026 年年中完成交易，那麼按固定匯率計算的增長應該會略顯平緩，因為我們看到大約一半的終止經營收入消失了。然後到了 2027 年，這一切都將消失。短期內，我們將繼續推動與長期演算法一致的根本成長，但由於我們一直在討論的稀釋效應，我們將會看到部分抵銷。

Okay great. That's super helpful. Thank you.

好的，太好了。這太有幫助了。謝謝。

Okay. Thank you, Lauren.

好的。謝謝你，勞倫。

Peter Grom, UBS.

Peter Grom，瑞銀集團。

Great. Sure. Thanks guys. Good morning. Good morning, guys. I wanted to ask on North America. Just the performance in the quarter relative to what we can see in the track trends, it was a bit stronger. So I know in the prepared remarks, you talked about some hurricane shipment dynamics. But can you just talk about what drove the gap in the quarter? And then maybe as we look ahead, would you anticipate a similar gap as we continue to monitor the data here in the fourth quarter?

偉大的。當然。謝謝各位。早安.各位早安。我想問一下關於北美地區的問題。僅就本季業績而言，與我們從追蹤趨勢中看到的情況相比，表現略好一些。我知道你在準備好的演講稿中談到了一些颶風運輸動態。但您能否談談造成本季業績下滑的原因？那麼，展望未來，隨著我們繼續監測第四季度的數據，您是否預計會出現類似的差距？

Hey Peter, maybe that's a good topic because I would say in our discussions, I think the source of data you look at is very -- it tends to be very different from our data. And so I know there's different analysts use different sources. But the thing about our business, we skew to a few larger customers that are untracked or not well tracked. So even if Ross Club is in the system, depending on what source you're using it, maybe panel data versus what Russ is getting as live feeds.

嘿，彼得，也許這是個好話題，因為我想說的是，在我們的討論中，我認為你所查看的數據來源往往與我們的數據非常不同。所以我知道不同的分析師會使用不同的資訊來源。但就我們業務而言，我們傾向於服務少數幾個沒有被追蹤或追蹤不完善的大客戶。所以即使 Ross Club 已經進入系統，根據你使用的數據源不同，可能是面板數據，也可能是 Russ 獲得的即時數據。

Yeah, obsoletely.

是的，已經過時了。

And then let me maybe just unpack a little bit the numbers. And I think it's two things there. I mean both scanner and the reported results, we are seeing sustained momentum from all the innovation and activation that we're doing across the markets in the US and the categories. Focusing specifically in North America, I think it's important to highlight that from a year-to-date standpoint, shipments are largely in line with consumption. And as we've said, you're always going to see some noise quarter-on-quarter and specifically for Q3, as we stated in our prepared remarks, what you're seeing is two things playing out.

然後，讓我稍微解讀一下這些數字。我認為這裡麵包含兩點。我的意思是，無論是掃描結果或報告結果，我們都看到，我們在美國各個市場和各個品類中開展的所有創新和推廣活動都帶來了持續的成長動能。具體到北美地區，我認為有必要強調，從今年迄今為止的情況來看，出貨量與消費量基本持平。正如我們所說，每個季度都會有一些波動，特別是對於第三季度，正如我們在準備好的發言稿中所述，你會看到兩件事同時發生。

The first one is lapping last year's hurricane-related impacts on shipments which grow around 50 basis points year-on-year. And then the second item, and we've been talking about it and Russ, mentioned it a little earlier today is the timing of the promotional expense, particularly year-on-year. And that drove a timing on the realization of those promotional activities.

第一個因素是抵銷去年颶風對出貨量的影響，出貨量年增約 50 個基點。其次，我們一直在討論這個問題，Russ 今天早些時候也提到過，那就是促銷費用的時機，特別是與往年相比。這就決定了這些促銷活動的具體實施時間。

So those are largely the two items that would have had overall shipments or organic growth ahead of what we would have seen in consumption for the quarter, but the year-to-date numbers are largely in line.

因此，這兩類產品的整體出貨量或有機成長通常會高於我們預期的季度消費量，但年初至今的數據基本上符合預期。

Yeah. And Nelson, if I could just tag on to that and build on what Mike was saying. I think we're focused on meeting consumers where they need us and at every price tier but also in every channel. And what you're seeing is really, as Mike alluded to, is a significant migration of consumers to e-commerce and club. And so if those are not as well tracked there can be a disconnect there, and you're certainly missing some of the growth that's happening.

是的。納爾遜，如果我能接上麥克的話，再補充一些內容就好了。我認為我們專注於在消費者需要我們的地方、在每個價格層級、在每個管道滿足他們的需求。正如麥克所暗示的那樣，你現在看到的實際上是消費者向電子商務和俱樂部的大規模遷移。因此，如果這些指標沒有得到很好的跟踪，就會出現脫節，你肯定會錯過一些正在發生的增長。

So just bring that to life with an example. In digital channels in North America, 99% of our growth last year came from digital. And this year, it's 100%. And I would -- we have a 7 point share benefit. Our share is higher by 7 points on digital versus brick-and-mortar.

所以，請用一個例子來生動地說明。在北美數位通路，我們去年 99% 的成長都來自數位通路。今年，這一比例達到了100%。而且我願意──我們有7個百分點的股票福利。我們在數位通路的佔比比實體店高出 7 個百分點。

And so that can have a pretty significant skew. And so that tracking piece tends to be -- the volumes there also tend to be a little bit lumpy and somewhat volatile. And so that tracking piece, I can understand maybe creates an additional noise and tracking things, but it is strong growth, and we're focused on executing our plans and delivering for consumers in all channels.

因此，這可能會造成相當大的偏差。因此，追蹤部分往往——那裡的成交量也往往有些波動不定。因此，我能理解追蹤數據可能會造成額外的干擾，但這是強勁的成長，我們專注於執行我們的計劃，並在所有管道中為消費者提供服務。

Great. Thank you so much. I'll leave it there.

偉大的。太感謝了。我就說到這兒吧。

Okay, thanks, Peter.

好的，謝謝你，彼得。

Thanks, Peter.

謝謝你，彼得。

Chris Carey, Wells Fargo.

克里斯凱裡，富國銀行。

Hello Chris.

你好，克里斯。

Hey Chris.

嗨，克里斯。

Hey, good morning everyone. So I wanted to come back to the promotional activity in North America and how you're responding. But I specifically wanted to dig a bit deeper on the comment that North America is kind of tracking well quarter-to-date. It's not really about a quarter-to-date question per se, but you've shifted promotional activity into Q4, I'd love to get a bit more detail on how you think that's doing, how is that improving your competitiveness? And Nelson, just any margin implications that we should be thinking about from this increased promotional activity.

嘿，大家早安。所以我想回到北美地區的推廣活動以及你們的反應。但我特別想深入探討「北美地區本季迄今表現良好」這一說法。這其實不是一個關於本季至今的問題，但你們已經將促銷活動轉移到了第四季度，我很想了解一下你們認為這樣做效果如何，以及這如何提高你們的競爭力？還有，Nelson，我們應該考慮一下，這種促銷活動增加會對利潤率產生哪些影響。

Yeah. I would start maybe with a broader statement there on just what's going on in North America overall. We're growing volume and mix, as you see in our results because we're focused on meeting consumers where they need us. And clearly, what you see right now is that consumers are really under pressure, and their purchasing power is under pressure. We don't really see candidly a catalyst for that to change anytime in the near term.

是的。我或許可以先就北美整體現況做一個更廣泛的陳述。正如您從我們的業績中看到的那樣，我們的銷售和產品種類都在增長，因為我們專注於在消費者需要我們的時候滿足他們的需求。很明顯，現在消費者確實面臨很大的壓力，他們的購買力也受到了壓力。坦白說，我們看不到近期內有任何催化劑改變這種情況。

However, our categories are essential categories with low substitution and they're very important to people's lives. And so that's what I think -- why you see the demand remain relatively resilient. And from a promotional standpoint, that's exactly why we tend to view promotion as a tactic to drive trial, and it doesn't really expand our categories. I think our retail partners understand that as well. And so our focus is really on strengthening our offerings by investing in value propositions and differentiated innovation at every rung of the good, better, best ladder, especially cascading those innovations across the portfolio, and that's exactly kind of what we're doing.

然而，我們的類別都是替代性低的基本類別，它們對人們的生活非常重要。所以我認為這就是需求保持相對韌性的原因。從促銷的角度來看，這正是我們傾向於將促銷視為推動試用的策略，而它並不會真正擴大我們的產品類別的原因。我認為我們的零售合作夥伴也明白這一點。因此，我們的重點在於透過投資價值主張和差異化創新來加強我們的產品和服務，尤其是在從好到更好到最好的各個階段，特別是將這些創新推廣到整個產品組合中，而這正是我們正在做的。

So that shows up in the form of strengthening the value offerings like I just talked about what's snug and dry a minute to go for value-seeking consumers, improving the product quality, so they're getting more value for money as well as elevating benefits to drive trade-up and premiumization. And we see the premium segment of the category healthy and still growing kind of across our portfolio.

因此，這體現在加強價值產品方面，就像我剛才提到的，為追求價值的消費者提供舒適乾爽的出行方式，提高產品質量，讓他們物有所值，同時提升產品優勢，推動升級換代和高端化。我們看到，在我們整個產品組合中，高端細分市場發展良好，並且仍在持續成長。

And one more thing I would note is just the vol mix growth in North America, I think is the proof point that, that is working. If you look at North America, we're kind of getting fall mix growth on top of ball mix growth. So year-to-date, fall mix growth in North America was about 2.2%. And if you looked at that on a two year stack basis, it would be 2.9%. And so that really is kind of how things are unfolding. So the promotional dynamics, our strategy was really to -- really focus on executing the play that I just described.

還有一點我想指出的是，北美地區的波動率組合成長，我認為這證明了這種做法是有效的。如果你看看北美，我們會發現秋季混合成長與球形混合成長同時發生。今年迄今為止，北美秋季混合銷售額成長約 2.2%。如果以兩年的累積成長率來看，那就是 2.9%。事情的發展大致就是這樣。所以，在推廣策略方面，我們的策略是真正專注於執行我剛才所描述的策略。

Yeah. And then maybe, Chris, I'll add. I think earlier in the quarter, we saw competitively some deeper discount deeper than we had seen discounting, it probably didn't have as much of an impact as we had originally thought. So that's kind of one delta. And then the other delta then also is our trial driving on the new -- on our new innovation -- and as Russ said earlier, we're really only promoting the brand to drive trial on the innovation. And so I think that is getting traction. So overall, I'd say our brands are very, very durable, especially in this environment.

是的。然後，克里斯，也許我會補充一點。我認為在本季度早些時候，我們看到了一些比以往更大的折扣，但這可能並沒有像我們最初預想的那樣產生那麼大的影響。所以這算是一個差異。另一個增量也是我們對新產品——我們的新創新——的試用，正如 Russ 之前所說，我們實際上只是在推廣品牌，以推動對創新產品的試用。所以我認為這種做法正在獲得認可。總的來說，我認為我們的品牌非常非常耐用，尤其是在這種環境下。

And to your question, Chris, related to margins, I mean a few things that we expect to unfold in Q4 as it relates to gross margin. We -- because of the timing of some of our investments, both on the supply chain and the mitigating actions realization related to the tariffs, we actually would be expecting gross margins to get back to expanding as we head into the fourth quarter.

至於你問的利潤率問題，克里斯，我是指我們預計在第四季與毛利率相關的一些事情。由於我們在供應鏈和與關稅相關的緩解措施實施方面的一些投資時機，我們預計隨著第四季度的到來，毛利率將恢復成長。

As you think about operating profit margin, though, we are stepping up investments marketing-wise, sequentially in the quarter and not in an immaterial manner because we're supporting all of the initiatives that we have, so from an operating profit margin, we'd actually expect to be not too different from what we would have seen last year in the same quarter, delivering a full year expansion of gross margin above operating profit margin is kind of our expectation at this point.

不過，就營業利潤率而言，我們本季在行銷方面的投資正在逐步增加，而且投入力度相當可觀，因為我們正在支持所有相關措施。因此，從營業利潤率來看，我們預計本季的營業利潤率與去年同期不會有太大差異。目前，我們預計全年毛利率將高於營業利益率。

Okay, thank you. One quick follow-up. I couldn't quite tell, but did your commodity outlook, if you exclude the impact of tariffs come up a bit today. Maybe I'm misreading that. And if so, what's driving that? And maybe just more broadly, how you see the cost outlook evolving here. If you'd like to add a bit of thoughts on how the tariff backdrop is evolving that may also be helpful. Thanks so much, guys.

好的，謝謝。還有一個後續問題。我不太確定，但如果排除關稅的影響，你對大宗商品價格的預期今天是否有所上升？或許是我理解錯了。如果真是如此，那麼是什麼原因導致的呢？更廣泛地說，您如何看待成本前景的變化？如果您能就關稅環境的演變提出一些看法，那也可能對我們有所幫助。非常感謝各位。

Yeah. So -- but before I get to tariffs, one thing is I think I said versus prior years. So versus prior year, we would see an expansion in operating profit as well. I was referring more to quarter-on-quarter. It would be not too dissimilar. It would be largely a little bit below but because of the investments.

是的。所以——但在我談到關稅之前，有一件事我認為我說過是與往年相比。因此，與前一年相比，營業利潤也將有所成長。我指的是季度環比。兩者差異不會太大。由於投資的原因，實際結果可能會略低於預期。

In any case, getting to tariffs, two things that have played out on tariffs. One, on the gross element of tariffs, we are down and improved about $70 million. So we were about $170 million. We're down to about $100 million gross tariffs. On the mitigating actions, we're still mitigating around $50 million because of the timing of that. And we do expect to be able to largely mitigate them all as we get through last year. So that should play out.

總之，說到關稅，有兩件事已經發生了。第一，就關稅總額而言，我們減少了約 7,000 萬美元。所以當時我們大約有1.7億美元。我們現在的關稅總額約為1億美元。關於緩解措施，由於時間因素，我們仍在努力減少約 5000 萬美元的損失。我們預計，隨著去年的臨近，我們將能夠基本緩解所有這些問題。所以事情應該會照計劃進行。

Obviously, on the tariffs front, there's a lot of moving pieces, Chris, and we were staying attuned to what's happening on that front. But overall, the good news is that we are seeing the mitigating actions coming through. We expect that to play through as we go into Q4 and early 2026. And our teams are activating all the elements in the toolkit to offset.

顯然，在關稅方面，有很多變數，克里斯，我們一直在密切關注這方面的情況。但總的來說，好消息是我們看到了緩解措施正在逐步落實。我們預計這種情況會持續到第四季和 2026 年初。我們的團隊正在啟用工具包中的所有要素來抵消這種影響。

Nik Modi, RBC Capital Markets.

Nik Modi，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Yeah. Thanks. Good morning everyone.

是的。謝謝。大家早安。

Hey, Nik.

嘿，尼克。

Hey, Mike. So just maybe you could just give some clarity on the full 2025 guide, just on the top line, obviously, over delivery this quarter, but it looks like there's a little bit of a step back in 4Q. So I just wanted to just understand, is there something you're seeing? Or is it just the environment is volatile, so you're just kind of appropriating your guidance accordingly. And then just -- I'll ask my follow-up now. Procter & Gamble talked about some exclusions on tariffs for some inputs. And I'm just curious if you're seeing that as well. Thanks.

嘿，麥克。所以，您能否就 2025 年的完整業績指引做一些更清晰的說明，就主要方面而言，顯然本季度業績超出預期，但看起來第四季度略有下滑。所以我想了解一下，你看到了什麼？或者只是因為環境不穩定，所以你才相應地調整了你的指導方針。然後——我現在就問我的後續問題。寶潔公司談到了部分原料關稅豁免事宜。我只是好奇你是否也看到了這一點。謝謝。

Yeah. Maybe I'll just -- I'll comment briefly on the last. Yes, some, right? And so and importantly, you have to recognize some of our products are -- were daily essentials. And so there is an exclusion for Brazilian eucalyptus. And so that's obviously an important factor for us. So that's one big area that I think we're very pleased to have been able to received. Nelson, do you want to comment on the --

是的。或許我會——我會簡單地評論最後一點。是的，有一些，對吧？因此，更重要的是，您必須認識到我們的一些產品是—曾經是日常必需品。因此，巴西桉樹被排除在外。所以這顯然是我們考慮的一個重要因素。所以，我認為我們非常高興能夠在這個領域取得進展。納爾遜，你想對此事發表什麼評論嗎？--

Yeah. I can go on the guidance for the top line, Nik. So I think a few things to unpack. On a year-to-date basis, our organic sales are 1.6%. And we -- what we're seeing on the categories at this stage is that the categories would grow around 2%, and our expectation right now is to grow largely in line with the categories for the full year. So in essence, I mean, we would see an acceleration in Q4 if not at least at the same level of what we saw growth in Q3 based on all of our programs. Does that clarify.

是的。我可以按照第一條主線的指導方針來做，尼克。所以我覺得有幾點要解釋清楚。今年迄今為止，我們的有機銷售額佔比為 1.6%。我們目前看到的類別成長情況是，各類別的成長幅度約為 2%，我們目前的預期是，全年的成長將與各類別的成長基本保持一致。所以本質上，我的意思是，根據我們所有的項目，即使不能達到第三季度增長的水平，我們也會在第四季度看到加速增長，至少也會達到第三季度增長的水平。這樣解釋清楚了嗎？

Yes, that does. Thank you so much.

是的，確實如此。太感謝了。

And Nik, one more thing I'll add is just, as you know, we were always talking about driving the virtuous cycle in our business. And so we have seen a little strength and we started off the year well. Third quarter came in good. So we're going to continue to reinvest in our brands and make sure that we can drive ongoing momentum as we get into next year.

尼克，我還要補充一點，正如你所知，我們一直在談論如何在我們的業務中推動良性循環。因此，我們看到了一些成長勢頭，今年開局不錯。第三季表現不錯。因此，我們將繼續對我們的品牌進行再投資，並確保我們能夠在明年保持持續的發展勢頭。

Helpful. Thank you, guys.

很有幫助。謝謝大家。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Anna Lizzul, Bank of America.

安娜·利祖爾，美國銀行。

Hello, Anna.

你好，安娜。

Hi, good morning. Thanks so much for the question. I was wondering if we could take a step back on the diaper category. We're seeing the category evolving here with certain ultra-premium players expanding the market on the top end. I was wondering how you see Kimberly competing in this environment where we're seeing growth, but also increased competition at the mid-tier and value ranges, but more robust growth on the ultra-premium side with some newer brands in the US. So I was wondering, is this an area at ultra-premium where Kimberly could compete through innovation or potentially through M&A? And then how do you see the overall category dynamics developing from here? Thanks.

您好，早安。非常感謝你的提問。我在想我們是否可以暫時擱置尿布這個話題。我們看到，隨著一些超高端品牌在高端市場不斷擴張，這一品類正在演變。我想知道您如何看待金佰利在當前環境下的競爭格局：我們看到市場成長，但中階和價值區間的競爭也日益激烈，而超高端市場則憑藉美國一些新興品牌實現了更強勁的成長。所以我想知道，在超高端市場，金佰利是否可以透過創新或併購來參與競爭？那麼，您認為該品類整體動態接下來會如何發展呢？謝謝。

Yeah. The great thing about the diaper category and also all of our categories that performance is what really, really matters. And so -- and Anna, we're very confident that we have the best technologies. We have a great pipeline of technology in our go-forward years. Next year's innovations will be better than this year and '27 innovations will be better than '26.

是的。尿布品類以及我們所有品類的最大優點在於，性能才是真正重要的。所以——安娜，我們非常有信心我們擁有最好的技術。未來幾年，我們將擁有強大的技術儲備。明年的創新將比今年的更好，2027 年的創新將比 2026 年的更好。

And so there's that. I would say our strategy, as we've said, kind of you've probably heard us say it a lot, hey, we want to win at every rung of the good, better, best ladder. And so -- and that's what's driven our business globally is really expansion, premiumization of the category through better features and products worth paying more for, just to give you an example, in North America, our shift over the last 10 years -- 10 years or so, our premium mix has gone from 40% of our business in North America to just under 70%.

事情就是這樣。我想說，正如我們所說，你們可能已經聽我們說過很多次了，我們的策略是，我們要在從優秀到更好再到卓越的每一個階段都取得勝利。因此——而這正是推動我們全球業務發展的真正動力——是透過更好的功能和更值得支付更高價格的產品來實現品類的擴張和高端化。舉個例子，在北美，過去 10 年左右，我們的高階產品組合佔比已從北美業務的 40% 成長到接近 70%。

And -- in China, our premium mix has gone from 6% five years ago to well over 40%, right? And so that's kind of our underlying strategy. However, in this environment, we also recognize we have to have a great value proposition in the value tiers. We don't want to be a niche premium brand. And so this is why Russ has talked about us cascading our best innovation, our best features into the, I would say, the mid-tiers and so that we can have a superior offering across the line. But maybe Russ, you may want to add a few thoughts.

而且——在中國，我們的高端產品佔比已經從五年前的 6% 成長到超過 40%，對吧？所以，這算是我們的基本策略。然而，在這種環境下，我們也意識到我們必須在各個價值層級中提供極具吸引力的價值主張。我們不想成為小眾高端品牌。所以，這就是為什麼 Russ 一直強調我們要將我們最好的創新、最好的功能推廣到中端產品中，這樣我們才能在整個產品線中提供卓越的產品。不過，Russ，或許你想補充幾點想法。

Yeah. I'd just add something. You mentioned super premium. I think we're excited about that, and that's consistent with what we're seeing just because I think it illustrates that there's plenty of room for us to continue to premiumize the category and you see that demand on the premium and super premium side is out there. And so continue to look for us to both drive that. As Mike just talked about the premiumization success we've had, both in the United States and other markets including China, we're going to continue to focus on that in addition to bringing great value at the mainstream and premium tiers.

是的。我只想補充一點。您提到了超高端產品。我認為我們對此感到興奮，這與我們目前所看到的趨勢一致，因為我認為這表明我們有很大的空間繼續提升該品類的品質，而且你可以看到，高端和超高端市場的需求確實存在。因此，我們將繼續期待雙方共同推動這項進程。正如麥克剛才談到的，我們在美國和包括中國在內的其他市場都取得了高端化方面的成功，我們將繼續專注於此，同時在主流和高端市場帶來巨大的價值。

Great. Thanks so much. And just one follow-up on the cost side. You did mention in early September, your expectation to reduce your volatility to fiber and that would approach zero following the JV agreement. So I was wondering if you could elaborate on that more and the efforts that you're making towards that so far.

偉大的。非常感謝。關於成本方面，還有一個後續問題。您在 9 月初曾提到，您期望降低光纖的波動性，並且在合資協議簽署後，波動性將接近零。所以我想知道您能否詳細說明一下，以及您目前為此所做的努力。

Yeah. Maybe I'll start and, I'd say one thing. I'd say yes, volatility is one of the big things that we've been working on because we recognize like that was one of the features of the KMB stock that was different from maybe some other companies. And so one of the key sources of that volatility was fiber prices, right, or our cost of fiber was more volatile historically.

是的。或許我會先說一句，我想說一件事。是的，波動性是我們一直在努力解決的重點問題之一，因為我們意識到這是 KMB 股票與其他一些公司不同的特點之一。因此，造成這種波動的主要來源之一是光纖價格，對吧？或者說，從歷史上看，我們的光纖成本波動更大。

I'd say this transaction and partnership on our international family and professional business with Suzano really does a couple of things. One, it really kind of stabilizes the source of the fiber costs. Partnering with one of the most efficient producers of fiber in the world has some strong advantages. And so I'd say that brings an advantage.

我認為，我們與 Suzano 就國際家族和專業業務進行的這項交易和合作，確實帶來了兩方面的好處。第一，它確實能穩定光纖成本的來源。與世界上效率最高的纖維生產商之一合作具有一些顯著優勢。所以我認為這帶來了優勢。

Obviously, the nature of the joint venture itself by reducing our stake in that business internationally inherently reduces volatility. And then I would also say, by nature of our strong partnership with Suzano, we have since Nelson has joined us and brought some of our kind of, I would say, risk management mindset that he and I used to have at our prior company here, we have worked hard to smooth out and take out volatility and the input costs that we've had, and hopefully, you can see that in your models.

顯然，合資企業的性質本身就透過減少我們在國際上對該業務的股份，從根本上降低了波動性。此外，我還想說，由於我們與 Suzano 建立了牢固的合作關係，自從 Nelson 加入我們並帶來了我們以前在公司裡就有的風險管理理念以來，我們一直努力消除波動性和投入成本，希望你們能在你們的模型中看到這一點。

And just to build on what Mike is saying, the transition that we've been doing over the last 2.5 to 3 years to integrated margin management has really percolated across the entire organization. The notion of pricing net of cost, at least neutral. In the mid to long term, is gaining hold across the organization, and that's really a way of working that has allowed us to have more proactive management of the volatility separate from all the other actions that we're taking.

正如麥克所說，我們過去 2.5 到 3 年裡一直在進行的向綜合利潤管理的轉型，已經真正滲透到整個組織中。定價理念是扣除成本後的淨價，至少是中性的。從中長期來看，這種做法正在整個組織內逐漸普及，這確實是一種工作方式，使我們能夠更積極主動地管理波動性，而這與我們正在採取的所有其他行動無關。

So that is a big, big cultural change across the organization, and we're seeing that play out over the last 2 to 2.5 years, and that's what also gives us the confidence of being able to attain our milestone margin targets before the end of the decade, both on the gross margin and the operating margin as we continue to progress in care transformation journey.

因此，這是整個組織內部的一次巨大的文化變革，我們在過去 2 到 2.5 年裡看到了這種變革的發生，這也讓我們有信心在本十年結束前實現我們的里程碑利潤率目標，包括毛利率和營業利潤率，因為我們將繼續推進護理轉型之旅。

Great. Thanks so much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Okay. I think we'll end it there for today for anybody that has any follow-up questions, the IR team will be around all day to take them. I know there are other calls that people need to get to. So thanks, everybody, for joining us, and have a great day.

好的。我想我們今天的會議就到此結束了。如有任何後續問題，IR團隊今天全天都會在場解答。我知道大家還有其他電話要接聽。謝謝大家的參與，祝福大家今天過得愉快。

Thank you. Everyone, this concludes today's event. You may disconnect at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。各位，今天的活動到此結束。您可以暫時斷開連接，祝您有美好的一天。感謝您的參與。