金百利克拉克 (KMB) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q4 2025 企業加權市佔率提升,連續第八季 volume+mix 成長,第四季為全年最強勁表現
    • 2026 年營收與獲利指引維持,預期營收成長與或優於全球加權平均 2% 類別成長,營業利益成長目標為中高個位數
    • Kenvue 併購進度如預期,股東投票支持度超過 90%,預計下半年完成;市場反應未特別提及
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • Powering Care 策略推動 volume+mix 成長,強化品牌差異化與創新
      • 全價位帶(Good, Better, Best)產品創新與價值主張,帶動市佔率提升
      • 國際市場(如中國、印尼、韓國、巴西)嬰兒與女性護理產品市佔率顯著提升
      • 持續高生產力(2026 年預計生產力提升約 6%),推動毛利率與營業利益率擴張
    • 風險:
      • 北美 club channel(如 Costco)分銷損失,2026 年帶來約 60 bps 成長逆風
      • 消費者持續聚焦價值,促銷競爭激烈,價格/組合壓力仍存
      • 2025 年 Q4 北美與企業市場需求低於預期,基期較低影響 2026 年展望
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 北美 Q4 volume mix 成長 1.7%,兩年複合成長 3.6%
    • 北美全年 Q4 volume mix 成長 2.1%,兩年複合成長 4.1%
    • 國際重點市場(中國、韓國、巴西、印尼)嬰兒尿布市佔率分別提升 210、30、50、230 bps
    • 2025 年 IPC(International Personal Care)前六大市場加權市佔率提升 50 bps
    • 中國尿布市佔率提升 270 bps,印尼女性護理提升近 200 bps
  4. 財務預測
    • 2026 年營收預計與或優於全球加權平均 2% 類別成長
    • 2026 年毛利率、營業利益率預計擴張,目標 2030 年前毛利率達 40%、營業利益率 18-20%
    • 2026 年生產力提升預計約 6%,資本支出(CapEx)未具體揭露
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 消費者環境壓力下,如何持續推動 volume 成長?2026 年類別成長預期?是否需終端需求改善才能達成 EBIT 成長?
      A: 公司聚焦於全價位帶產品創新與價值主張,強化 Good, Better, Best 產品組合,帶動 volume 成長。2026 年全球類別成長預期約 2%,公司產品組合具韌性,預期可持續優於類別。
    • Q: 北美價格/組合(price/mix)持續負面,促銷與價格投資動態?
      A: Q4 促銷活動增加,部分創新產品推廣延後至 Q4,帶來短期價格壓力。消費者通路轉移(如 club channel)與大包裝影響單位價格。長期仍聚焦於創新與價值主張,維持 volume+mix 成長。
    • Q: 美國尿布市場競爭(如 Costco 失去部分分銷),對展望影響?
      A: 美國 club channel 失去部分尿布與訓練褲分銷,2026 年帶來約 60 bps 成長逆風,已納入全年預期。公司將持續以創新與品牌差異化應對競爭。
    • Q: 2026 年類別成長 pacing、毛利率 40% 目標進度?
      A: 2026 年初類別成長預期約 2%,全年上、下半年營收 pacing 均衡,下半年創新與品牌支持將加速成長。毛利率目標進度良好,預計 2026 年毛利率、營業利益率均擴張,2030 年前達 40%/18-20% 目標。
    • Q: 國際事業群毛利率提升機會與驅動因素?
      A: 國際毛利率提升空間大,聚焦於 premium 產品發展與生產力提升。國際市場市佔率持續提升,預期 2026 年 volume+mix 成長優於類別,帶動營業利益與毛利率提升。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greetings. Welcome to the Kimberly-Clark 4Q 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this conference is being recorded.

    問候。歡迎參加金佰利公司2025年第四季財報電話會議。(操作員說明)請注意,本次會議正在錄音。

  • I will now turn the conference over to your host, Chris Jakubik, Vice President of Investor Relations. Chris, you may begin.

    現在我將把會議交給主持人,投資者關係副總裁克里斯·雅庫比克。克里斯,你可以開始了。

  • Christopher Jakubik - Head of Investor Relations

    Christopher Jakubik - Head of Investor Relations

  • Thanks so much, and good morning, everyone. This is Chris Jakubik, Head of Investor Relations at Kimberly-Clark, and thank you for joining us. I would like to remind everyone that during our comments today, we will make some forward-looking statements that are based on how we see things today. Actual results may differ due to risks and uncertainties, and these are discussed in our earnings release and our filings with the SEC.

    非常感謝,大家早安。我是金佰利公司投資人關係主管克里斯·雅庫比克,感謝您的參與。我想提醒大家,在今天的發言中,我們將做出一些基於我們目前看法的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能因風險和不確定性而有所不同,這些風險和不確定性已在我們的獲利報告和提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中進行了討論。

  • We will also discuss some non-GAAP financial measures during these remarks and these non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered a replacement for and should be read together with GAAP results. And you can find the GAAP and non-GAAP reconciliations within our earnings release and the supplemental materials posted at investor.kimberly-clark.com.

    在這些發言中,我們還將討論一些非公認會計準則財務指標,這些非公認會計準則財務指標不應被視為公認會計準則結果的替代,而應與公認會計準則結果一起閱讀。您可以在我們的獲利報告和發佈在 investor.kimberly-clark.com 的補充資料中找到 GAAP 和非 GAAP 調整表。

  • Finally, I will apologize in advance if there are issues with the quality or delays in our audio today because we are all working remotely due to the winter storms. So with that, I'll turn it over to Mike for a few opening comments.

    最後,由於冬季暴風雪的影響,我們今天都在遠端辦公,如果音訊品質出現問題或延遲,我提前表示歉意。那麼,接下來我將把麥克風交給麥克,讓他做幾句開場白。

  • Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • All right. Thank you, Chris. Two years ago, we launched Powering Care to unlock Kimberly-Clark's next chapter of growth, building on our 150-year legacy. Now since then, we've made tremendous progress and accelerated our momentum across the board. Our execution of Powering Care is driving strong results even amidst a dynamic external environment.

    好的。謝謝你,克里斯。兩年前,我們啟動了「賦能照護」計劃,以150年的歷史傳承為基礎,開啟金佰利公司下一個成長篇章。從那時到現在,我們取得了巨大的進步,並在各個方面都加快了發展勢頭。即使在瞬息萬變的外在環境下,我們實施的「賦能關懷」計畫也取得了顯著成效。

  • In 2025, we continue to advance our volume plus mix growth model, delivering an eighth consecutive quarter of solid volume plus mix performance in Q4. We gained enterprise weighted share, and we marked a second straight year of industry-leading productivity with our fourth quarter being the strongest of the year.

    2025年,我們繼續推動銷售和產品組合成長模式,並在第四季度連續第八個季度實現了穩健的銷售和產品組合表現。我們提高了企業加權市場份額,並連續第二年維持了領先業界的生產力,第四季更是全年表現最佳。

  • The energy across our company is palpable. We are introducing consumer-directed, science-based innovation and breakthrough marketing across brands and markets faster than ever before. We're exercising cost discipline in deploying our greatest capabilities across the enterprise to optimize our margin structure. And we've rewired our organization for growth, including strengthening our bench of exceptional leaders and pivoting our portfolio to higher growth, higher-margin Personal Care categories.

    我們公司上下都洋溢著蓬勃的活力。我們正以前所未有的速度,在各個品牌和市場中引入以消費者為導向、以科學為基礎的創新和突破性行銷。我們正在嚴格控製成本,將我們最強大的能力部署到整個企業,以優化我們的利潤結構。我們已經對組織進行了重組以實現成長,包括加強我們傑出領導人才的儲備,並將我們的產品組合轉向增長更快、利潤更高的個人護理類別。

  • We've hit the ground running in 2026 and are energized by the opportunity ahead. We've built a robust, achievable plan focused on further differentiating our trusted brands and ensuring we have healthy levels of investment across our value chain. We expect pressure on the consumer and a focus on value to persist. We're confident in our strategy and committed to giving our brands the fuel to thrive.

    2026年伊始,我們就全力以赴,對未來的機會充滿熱情。我們制定了穩健、可行的計劃,重點在於進一步凸顯我們值得信賴的品牌差異化,並確保我們在整個價值鏈中保持健康的投資水準。我們預期消費者面臨的壓力和對性價比的關注將持續存在。我們對我們的策略充滿信心,並致力於為我們的品牌提供蓬勃發展的動力。

  • Powering Care has put Kimberly-Clark on a virtuous cycle of growth and positioned this great American company for a better future. We have the right foundation and a proven playbook to capitalize on our pending acquisition of Kenvue.

    「Powering Care」計畫讓金佰利公司進入了良性成長循環,並為這家偉大的美國公司創造了更美好的未來。我們擁有正確的基礎和行之有效的策略,可以充分利用即將完成的對 Kenvue 的收購。

  • Acquiring Kenvue a powerful next step in our transformation that will compound our momentum. It will advance our trajectory toward higher growth, higher-margin spaces, and create a global health and wellness leader positioned to serve consumers at every stage of life. We're excited to see the vast opportunity ahead and confident we will create significant value for our consumers, our partners, and our shareholders.

    收購 Kenvue 是我們轉型過程中強而有力的下一步,這將增強我們的發展動能。這將推動我們向更高成長、更高利潤領域邁進,並打造全球健康和保健領域的領導者,為處於人生各個階段的消費者提供服務。我們對未來的巨大機會感到興奮,並有信心為我們的消費者、合作夥伴和股東創造巨大的價值。

  • So with that, let's open the line for questions.

    那麼,接下來我們開始提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Bonnie Herzog, Goldman Sachs.

    (操作說明)邦妮·赫爾佐格,高盛。

  • Bonnie Herzog - Analyst

    Bonnie Herzog - Analyst

  • So I guess I was hoping to hear some color on the state of the consumer and what you're doing different in this environment? Mike, I asked because you're growing volumes, whereas this really has been challenging for others. And then how are you thinking about this going forward?

    所以我想了解消費者的現狀,以及你們在這種環境下採取了哪些不同的措施?麥克,我這麼問是因為你的業務量在成長,而這對其他人來說確實是個挑戰。那麼,您接下來對此有何打算?

  • And you guided organic sales growth to be aligned to ahead of the category in '26. So hoping you could share what your expectations are for category growth this year and whether it will accelerate from the 2% growth currently. I guess, essentially, do you need end market growth to improve to hit your mid-single to high single-digit EBIT growth guidance?

    您在 2026 年引導有機銷售成長領先同類產品。所以,希望您能分享一下您對今年品類成長的預期,以及成長速度是否會從目前的 2% 加速。我想,從本質上講,您是否需要終端市場成長改善才能實現您設定的中個位數到高個位數的 EBIT 成長目標?

  • Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Okay. Hey, Bonnie, great question. Thanks for that. I'll open and I think Russ has a lot more texture that he's rearing to inform you all of. And then I might even ask Nelson to cover a little bit about how it affects the outlook.

    好的。嘿,邦妮,問得好。謝謝。我先來,我覺得 Russ 還有很多東西想告訴你們。然後我甚至可能會請納爾遜談談這會對前景產生什麼影響。

  • But one -- and I think you raised the point that we are growing, and it's a tough environment out there. However, I think the big thing is that maybe two, 2.5 years ago, Bonnie, we did see that pressure in almost all markets was going to increase on the consumer and especially in North America, kind of given the state of the middle-class consumer.

    但有一點——我認為你提出了這一點,那就是我們正在發展壯大,而外面的環境很艱難。不過,我認為最重要的是,邦妮,大概兩年前,我們確實看到幾乎所有市場的消費者都將面臨越來越大的壓力,尤其是在北美,考慮到中產階級消費者的現狀。

  • And so we started to focus on was delivering superior propositions at what we said is every rung of the Good, Better, Best ladder, right? And so we've worked really hard to do that, and we continue to see ample opportunity to do that and do that better and also continue to elevate and expand our categories globally.

    因此,我們開始專注於在「好、更好、最好」這三個階段中的每一個階段提供更優的方案,對吧?因此,我們為此付出了巨大的努力,並且我們仍然看到充足的機會去做到這一點,做得更好,並繼續在全球範圍內提升和擴展我們的產品類別。

  • I have a couple of additional comments. We feel consumers remain interested in better-performing products, and that's at all price tiers. In this environment, as I think you're pointing out, Bonnie, strong value proposition is the paramount thing.

    我還有幾點補充說明。我們認為消費者仍然對性能更好的產品感興趣,而且這種興趣貫穿所有價格區間。在這種環境下,正如你所指出的,邦妮,強大的價值主張才是最重要的。

  • And so we're growing because what we're doing is strengthening our offerings at every run, and that means we're continuing to bring great innovation at the top end, and then we are rushing that innovation through into our value tiers. And I think our consumers are really noticing that. We've really worked hard to deliver superiority at a very, very competitive cost.

    因此,我們之所以能夠發展壯大,是因為我們正在不斷加強我們的產品和服務,這意味著我們將繼續在高端市場帶來卓越的創新,然後迅速將這些創新應用到我們的低端產品中。我認為我們的消費者確實注意到了這一點。我們付出了巨大的努力,以極具競爭力的價格提供卓越的產品和服務。

  • So we see further opportunity to expand our categories, expand penetration and premiumize over time. And so we've developed a robust pipeline of innovation that the world hasn't seen yet. And I will tell you, parenthetically, I'm more excited about our next three years innovation than what we've done in our past three. And so we're really excited about what the company has been working on.

    因此,我們看到了進一步拓展產品類別、擴大市場滲透率並逐步提升產品高端化的機會。因此,我們建立了一個強大的創新管道,這是世界前所未見的。順便說一句,我對未來三年的創新比過去三年所做的創新更感到興奮。因此,我們對公司一直在進行的研究工作感到非常興奮。

  • So with that, maybe I'll kick it to Russ and maybe you can provide a little texture.

    所以,或許我會把這個任務交給 Russ,也許你能提供一些細節。

  • Russell Torres - President, Chief Operating Officer

    Russell Torres - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Yeah. Thanks, Mike. Hi, Bonnie. Yeah, you're right. I don't think we are expecting, as Mike noted, the consumer focus on value to change anytime soon. And as Mike noted, I really think our mantra has been to meet consumers where they need us. And that's where the combination of innovation, marketing, and activation.

    是的。謝謝你,麥克。嗨,邦妮。是的,你說得對。正如麥克指出的那樣,我認為我們預計消費者對價值的關注不會很快改變。正如麥克指出的那樣,我認為我們的宗旨一直是滿足消費者的需求。這就是創新、行銷和推廣結合的意義所在。

  • And like other categories, we are seeing consumers demand shift across channels. They're looking for different pack sizes, purchase frequency in some parts of the world, especially internationally and in developing markets is being impacted a little bit. And that's clearly led to more choppy month-to-month consumption data. So in terms of your question, I think Mike nailed it.

    與其他品類一樣,我們看到消費者的需求正在跨通路轉移。他們正在尋找不同的包裝規格,而世界某些地區(尤其是國際市場和發展中市場)的購買頻率受到了一定程度的影響。這顯然導致了月度消費數據波動較大。所以就你的問題而言,我認為麥克回答得非常到位。

  • I would just add a little bit more texture on it is that we're really focused on serving consumers on every run with a compelling value proposition. I think that's the reason why we're growing volumes right now. We have made a number of targeted price pack adjustments as well as paying extra special attention to channel participation and ensuring we have really compelling offerings at the Good tier as well as the Better and the Best tier.

    我還要補充一點,我們真正關注的是,在每一次營運中,我們都致力於為消費者提供具有吸引力的價值主張。我認為這就是我們目前銷售成長的原因。我們對價格套餐進行了一系列有針對性的調整,同時格外關注通路參與度,確保我們在「良好」、「更好」和「最佳」級別都提供真正具有吸引力的產品。

  • And we put an extraordinary effort into driving elevated benefits on the trade upside to maintain that category growth. And I think in North America, if you pick that as an example, that's really helped us on the volume side.

    我們投入了巨大的努力,以提升貿易利益,從而維持該品類的成長。我認為在北美,以北美為例,這確實在銷售方面對我們大有裨益。

  • In Q4, as you saw from our results, our volume mix was up 1.7%. But on a two-year stack basis in Q4, was up 3.6%. And then on the full-year basis in North America, volume mix was up in Q4, 2.1%. And on a two-year stack basis, it was up 4.1%.

    正如您從我們的業績報告中看到的,第四季度我們的銷量佔比增長了 1.7%。但以兩年累計計算,第四季成長了 3.6%。然後,從全年來看,北美地區的銷量佔比在第四季度增長了 2.1%。以兩年累計計算,上漲了 4.1%。

  • And I agree with Mike, '26 should probably be one of our best years for innovation. And we're going to continue executing that strategy and are optimistic we'll continue to be able to deliver what consumers are looking for.

    我同意麥克的觀點,2026年可能是我們創新能力最強的一年。我們將繼續執行該策略,並樂觀地認為我們將繼續能夠滿足消費者的需求。

  • Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. And then, Bonnie, just to follow up on the final part of your question. I think our '26 kind of implies our category outlook is around 2% globally, plus or minus. And there's been -- if you look at the last four quarters, there's been a little choppiness around that. But if you look specifically at our categories, we tend to be more resilient and demand tends to be a little bit more stable because of the categories that we're in.

    是的。然後,邦妮,我想就你問題的最後一部分做個補充說明。我認為我們 '26' 的預測暗示著我們對全球該類別的展望約為 2%,上下浮動。而且──如果你看過去四個季度,你會發現這方面有點波動。但如果你具體看一下我們的品類,你會發現,由於我們所處的品類,我們的韌性更強,需求也更穩定一些。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Lauren Lieberman, Barclays.

    勞倫·利伯曼,巴克萊銀行。

  • Lauren Lieberman - Analyst

    Lauren Lieberman - Analyst

  • Just wanted to follow on on some of those thoughts and particularly holding in on price and mix. In North America, we've seen pricing took another step back this quarter after being up in 3Q and mix persistently negative. I know you look at vol/mix, but price/mix is decelerating, not improving. So just wondered if you could comment on that? And because you've mentioned price investments a couple of places in the release.

    我只是想就這些想法再補充一些,特別是關於價格和組合方面。在北美,我們看到價格在第三季上漲之後,本季再次回落,產品組合持續處於負面狀態。我知道你們會關注成交量/組合,但價格/組合的增速正在放緩,而不是加快。所以,我想問您能否對此發表一下看法?而且您在新聞稿中多次提到了價格投資。

  • Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Let me take that one, Mike?

    讓我來吧,麥克?

  • Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Go ahead.

    是的。前進。

  • Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • So yeah. Hey, Lauren. How are you doing? Good to talk. I would say there's really three things going on there on the price mix. The first thing that I would say is there is a promo dynamic, if you recall. In the third quarter call, we talked about the competitive activity in North America in the second half being some fairly significant promotional activity. And we, as a result of that, rephased some of our planned activation activity around innovation into the fourth quarter.

    是的。嗨,勞倫。你好嗎?很高興和你聊天。我認為價格構成中實際上有三個因素在起作用。首先我想說的是,這裡有一個促銷機制,如果你還記得的話。在第三季電話會議上,我們談到了北美地區下半年的競爭活動,其中包括一些相當重要的促銷活動。因此,我們將一些原計劃圍繞創新開展的推廣活動調整到了第四季。

  • So you're seeing that come through and specifically, just to remind you, as Mike said, we're in essential categories, we don't believe that promo drives incremental consumption, but we will use it as a tactic to drive trial, especially related to innovation that is really sensorial. And we did have a strong agenda of innovation in 2025, and you probably saw some of that.

    所以你們可以看到這一點正在顯現,特別提醒一下,正如麥克所說,我們身處必需品類別,我們不認為促銷能推動增量消費,但我們會將其作為一種策略來推動試用,尤其是在真正具有感官體驗的創新方面。我們在 2025 年制定了強有力的創新計劃,您可能已經看到了其中的一些成果。

  • For example, we did move some of that programming on Snug & Dry, which we have a great innovation. It's the softest diaper in the value tier. Our new generation 2 core, which provides better protection and more comfort. It was named the number one diaper with good housekeeping, disposable diaper, great consumer reading.

    例如,我們確實將一些節目內容轉移到了 Snug & Dry 上,這是我們的一項重大創新。它是同價位產品中最柔軟的尿布。我們新一代的第二代核心部件,提供更好的保護和更舒適的佩戴體驗。它被《好管家》、《一次性尿布》和《優秀消費者讀物》評為第一名尿布。

  • So we wanted to get that in the hands of consumers to drive trial. We had other innovations as well, and we did that in the fourth quarter and those performed relatively well. I would say just last thing on the promo dynamic before I move on is our end market promotional activity for the year remains below the category and 2019 levels. And again, we expect that to flow with our innovation.

    所以我們希望讓消費者能夠體驗這款產品,從而推動試用。我們還有其他創新,這些創新是在第四季推出的,而且表現相對較好。在繼續討論促銷動態之前,我想最後補充一點,我們今年的終端市場促銷活動仍然低於同類產品和 2019 年的水平。我們同樣希望創新能推動創新發展。

  • The other two dynamics, I'll hit briefly. One is club mix. That's just the consumer moving channels, and that has come through a little bit in our pricing because they're buying larger pack sizes at a lower price per unit. So you see more volume, but a little bit of a drag on the pricing piece there. And again, that's our philosophy of just serving consumers in the channel that they want to shop in.

    另外兩個方面,我將簡單提及。其中一首是俱樂部混音版。這只是消費者購買管道的變化,這在一定程度上影響了我們的定價,因為他們購買的是更大包裝規格的產品,而單價則更低。所以銷量增加了,但價格方面略有下滑。再次強調,我們的理念就是在消費者希望購物的管道為他們提供服務。

  • And then the last thing is we did talk about several times making strategic investments in pack sizes and choices to better align our Good, Better, Best pricing value-adders across the channels, especially ahead of some of the innovation we have coming. And we had made some choices to sharpen the competitiveness of our value proposition.

    最後一點是,我們確實多次討論過對包裝尺寸和選擇進行戰略投資,以便更好地協調我們在各個渠道的“好”、“更好”、“最佳”定價增值產品,尤其是在我們即將推出一些創新產品之前。我們做出了一些選擇,以增強我們價值主張的競爭力。

  • So over the long term, we're going to stay focused on maintaining PNOC's discipline while growing volume and mix profitably. And that will be led by innovation and the focus on category development. And we have a great lineup in '26 to that end. So that's the direction we're headed and we're excited about it.

    因此,從長遠來看,我們將繼續專注於保持PNOC的紀律性,同時實現銷售和產品組合的獲利成長。而這一切都將以創新和品類開發為導向。為此,我們在 2026 年擁有了一套非常強大的陣容。這就是我們前進的方向,我們對此感到興奮。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nik Modi, RBC Capital Markets.

    Nik Modi,加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

  • Nik Modi - Analyst

    Nik Modi - Analyst

  • Just like a quick clarification. I didn't see anything in the release regarding any updates on closing timing or regulatory filing timing. So if you could provide any clarity on that, that would be helpful.

    只是想簡單澄清一下。我沒有在公告中看到任何關於交易完成時間或監管文件提交時間的更新資訊。如果您能就此提供一些解釋,那就太好了。

  • But my main question is really just the state of the US diaper category, especially the dynamics at play at Costco, given Procter is now entering after decades of exclusivity for Huggies. So if you can provide any kind of thoughts on that? Is that embedded in your outlook? How are you going to respond, et cetera, et cetera?

    但我的主要問題其實是美國紙尿褲市場的現狀,特別是考慮到寶潔公司在 Huggies 品牌獨家經銷數十年後即將進入 Costco 市場,Costco 的市場動態會如何。所以,您能否就此提供一些想法?這種想法已經根深蒂固了嗎?你打算如何回應,等等等等?

  • Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Okay. Morning, Nick. Maybe I'll ask Russ, maybe you can talk about the US diaper category? And then I'll come back, Nick, and answer your questions on the acquisition.

    好的。早安,尼克。也許我可以問問Russ,也許可以談談美國尿布市場的狀況?然後我會回來回答你關於收購的問題,尼克。

  • Russell Torres - President, Chief Operating Officer

    Russell Torres - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Yeah, sure. Hey, Nick. How are you doing? Yeah, in terms of diapers, again, we're growing by driving innovation and brand building that grows the category and cascading that to all tiers. And that model has worked well for us around the world.

    當然可以。嘿,尼克。你好嗎?是的,就尿布而言,我們同樣是透過推動創新和品牌建立來實現成長,從而促進品類發展,並將這種成長帶動各個層級的消費。這種模式在世界各地都為我們帶來了良好的效果。

  • In the United States, before I get to the US, I'll just hit a couple of highlights. Around the world in the fourth quarter, we grew share in many of our key markets, including China, up 210 basis points; Korea up 30 basis points; Brazil, up 50 basis points; Indonesia, up 230 basis points. So that strategy that we're executing is working in North America as well. In the fourth quarter, we grew share about 100 basis points, and we've grown share in diapers two years in a row.

    在美國,在我到達美國之前,我先簡單介紹幾個亮點。第四季度,我們在全球許多主要市場的份額均有所成長,包括中國(成長 210 個基點)、韓國(成長 30 個基點)、巴西(成長 50 個基點)和印尼(成長 230 個基點)。所以,我們執行的這項策略在北美也同樣奏效。第四季度,我們的市佔率成長了約 100 個基點,並且連續兩年實現了尿布市佔率的成長。

  • But with -- just with respect to the club situation, the way we look at it is we're really focused on providing consumers with differentiated brand value propositions no matter what channel they're shopping in. And we're widely available, so is our competition.

    但是就俱樂部的情況而言,我們的看法是,無論消費者透過什麼管道購物,我們都真正專注於為他們提供差異化的品牌價值主張。我們的產品覆蓋範圍很廣,我們的競爭對手也是如此。

  • However, we did see a major club player has moved away from branded exclusivity in our category. And so we'll see partial loss of diapers and pull-ups distribution in the North America club channel and that will start in the first quarter here. And this is incorporated to your question in our full-year expectation of growing, as Nelson mentioned, in line or to better than weighted average category growth.

    然而,我們確實看到,我們這個類別中的一家主要俱樂部已經放棄了品牌獨家經營模式。因此,我們將看到北美俱樂部通路的尿布和拉拉褲分銷出現部分損失,這種情況將從第一季開始。正如 Nelson 所提到的,我們全年的成長預期已經包含了您提出的問題,即成長將達到或超過加權平均類別成長水準。

  • So we're focused on continuing to execute the strategy, and there might be some ebbs and flows over time, but we're very confident in the long term. We're going to continue to move in the right direction as our current performance indicates.

    因此,我們專注於繼續執行該策略,隨著時間的推移,可能會出現一些起伏,但我們對長期發展非常有信心。我們將繼續朝著正確的方向前進,正如我們目前的表現所顯示的那樣。

  • Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Just to clarify for what's built into the forecast, Nik. As Russ mentioned, we expect this distribution loss to commence in Q1. It is reflected in our full-year outlook, and it's a headwind of around 60 basis points for the full year.

    尼克,我只是想澄清一下預測中包含的內容。正如 Russ 所提到的,我們預計這種分銷損失將從第一季開始。這反映在我們的全年展望中,全年將面臨約 60 個基點的不利影響。

  • Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • And then, Nik, just regard to the Kenvue process, we -- the shareholder vote is on the 29 of Thursday. I will tell you, I expect the vote to reflect the very positive feedback we've heard from our investors. And so through yesterday, pretty good chunk of shareholders have already voted and it's well in excess of 90% in favor. So we feel good about that.

    然後,Nik,關於 Kenvue 的流程,我們——股東投票將於 29 日星期四舉行。我可以告訴你們,我預計投票結果將反映出我們從投資者那裡聽到的非常正面的回饋。截至昨天,相當一部分股東已經投票,贊成票超過 90%。所以我們對此感到很滿意。

  • And then with regard to timing of close, we still expect somewhere in the back half. I think the regulatory process is on track and consistent with our initial expectations. And maybe you didn't ask this part, but I will tell you, our IFP transaction remains on track for a midyear closing this year, still subject to regulatory approvals.

    至於收盤時間,我們仍然預計會在下半年某個時候。我認為監管流程進展順利,符合我們最初的預期。也許你沒問到這部分,但我還是要告訴你,我們的 IFP 交易仍按計劃進行,預計將於今年年中完成,但仍需獲得監管部門的批准。

  • And then we work closely with Kenvue to file shortly after announcing the transaction, submitted the US antitrust filing, and we'll complete filing all applicable international jurisdictions by early February. And so again, I think we're on track to close in the second half of this year.

    然後,我們將與 Kenvue 密切合作,在宣布交易後不久提交美國反壟斷文件,並將在 2 月初完成所有適用國際司法管轄區的備案。所以,我認為我們預計在今年下半年完成交易。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steve Powers, Deutsche Bank.

    史蒂夫鮑爾斯,德意志銀行。

  • Steve Powers - Analyst

    Steve Powers - Analyst

  • Maybe just to round out the top line conversation a bit. Just maybe a little bit more precision around how you expect the overall 2% category growth to shake out North America versus rest of world? And I guess in light of the 4Q dip that you noted and the overall choppiness we've seen, do you see that 2% backdrop existing pretty steadily in '26, I guess, inclusive of the first quarter? Or will it -- are you assuming that it takes more time to ramp? That would be helpful.

    或許只是為了讓主題討論更完整一些。能否更精確地說明一下,您預期整體 2% 的品類成長率在北美和世界其他地區之間的分佈?鑑於您提到的第四季度下滑以及我們看到的整體波動,您認為 2026 年(包括第一季)2% 的成長基調會比較穩定存在嗎?或者會這樣嗎? ——你是認為需要更多時間才能達到目標功率嗎?那會很有幫助。

  • And if I could, I know I'm supposed to have one question, but I'm going to try to get two. Nelson, in the prepared remarks, you talked about visibility in achieving that 40% future adjusted gross margin before the end of the decade.

    如果可以的話,我知道我應該只能提一個問題,但我打算提兩個。納爾遜,你在事先準備好的演講稿中談到了在十年結束前實現 40% 的未來調整後毛利率的可見性。

  • I'm assuming that target existed before Kenvue. So it's independent of Kenvue contributions. I guess, maybe just an update on how are you seeing the primary drivers shaking out there? And then just how much progress roundabout you think you might be able to make in '26?

    我假設這個目標在 Kenvue 出現之前就已經存在了。所以它與 Kenvue 的貢獻無關。我想,或許可以更新一下你對目前主要驅動因素的看法?那麼,你認為在 2026 年你能在環城公路上取得多大的進展呢?

  • Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Let me just open with maybe just an overall comment on the sales outlook. And then Nelson will give you a little more texture on the pace and then we can hit the margin thing, Steve.

    首先,我想就銷售前景發表一下整體看法。然後尼爾森會為你帶來更多關於節奏的細節,然後我們就可以討論勝負差距的問題了,史蒂夫。

  • But one, I just wanted to emphasize that our volume momentum, and I think Bonnie noted that the volumes were, in our minds, performing well. The volume momentum really this year -- or last year in '25 really reflects, I think, the compelling offering that we have. And as I mentioned earlier, we're even more bullish on our innovation and marketing initiatives this year.

    但是,我只想強調一點,我們的成交量勢頭良好,而且我認為邦妮也注意到,在我們看來,成交量表現良好。我認為,今年的銷售成長動能(或去年的銷售成長動能)確實反映了我們產品的吸引力。正如我之前提到的,我們對今年的創新和行銷措施更加充滿信心。

  • And so I think our focus on strengthening the value propositions at every tier has been very, very important. We have a very strong pipeline coming this year. And so we expect a meaningful step-up as we get through the year to support our new launches. And so we feel very good about the plan for this year.

    因此,我認為我們專注於加強各個層級的價值主張是非常非常重要的。我們今年有非常強勁的專案儲備。因此,我們預計在今年剩餘的時間裡,我們將加強支持新產品的發布。因此,我們對今年的計劃感到非常滿意。

  • But I'll let Nelson, you may want to comment a little bit more on the pacing.

    不過,納爾遜,你可能想就節奏方面再多提一些意見。

  • Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Sure, Mike. So a few things, Steve, and I'll unpack a little bit Q4. But to start with, for 2026, as Mike mentioned in his prepared remarks, I mean, we have a very strong, and I'd say the strongest pipeline of innovation and activation programs that we've had in quite a few years across all of our markets. And we are -- our plan is to continue to build the momentum on volume plus mix-led growth that we saw play out in 2024 with an acceleration in 2025.

    當然可以,麥克。史蒂夫,有幾件事,我會在第四季詳細解釋。但首先,就 2026 年而言,正如麥克在他準備好的發言稿中提到的那樣,我的意思是,我們擁有非常強大的創新和激活計劃儲備,而且我認為這是我們多年來在所有市場中擁有的最強大的儲備。我們的計劃是繼續保持 2024 年銷售和產品組合驅動成長的勢頭,並在 2025 年加速成長。

  • Now as you rightfully mentioned, for the fourth quarter of 2025 on the surface weighted global average category growth dropped to around 0.6%. And that compares to about 2% that we were staring at right around between Q1 and Q3 of last year.

    正如您所提到的,2025 年第四季度,表面加權全球平均品類成長率下降至 0.6% 左右。而去年第一季到第三季期間,我們預期的比例約為 2%。

  • And there were a few discrete factors that weighed on this drop, particularly in North America. And as you know, we have the impact in '24 of Hurricane Helene, the port strikes, panic-related buying. And to a lesser extent, in 2025, there was a little bit of pantry loading in North America diapers in Q3 or '25. So that all played out into the weighted average growth of 0.6% for the category in the last quarter.

    還有一些具體因素導致了此次下跌,尤其是在北美地區。如你所知,2024 年颶風海倫的影響、港口罷工以及由此引發的恐慌性搶購。而到了 2025 年,北美尿布市場在第三季出現了一些囤貨現象,但程度較輕。因此,所有這些因素最終導致該類別上一季的加權平均成長率為 0.6%。

  • For the full year, as I mentioned, category grew weighted right around 2%, and our categories have remained resilient. As we think about the last four weeks data that we've got, we're hovering around that 2%. So we think that a good starting point for weighted average category growth for the start of the year is around that level.

    正如我之前提到的,全年該品類成長幅度約為 2%,而且我們的品類一直保持著韌性。回顧過去四周的數據,我們發現這個數字徘徊在 2% 左右。因此,我們認為年初加權平均品類成長的良好起點應該在這個水準附近。

  • We are maintaining our disciplined approach to grow in the categories and the brands through the innovation, the differentiation. And we expect both North America and our International Personal Care business to grow in line or ahead of the categories for the full year.

    我們將繼續秉持嚴謹的態度,透過創新和差異化,在各個品類和品牌中實現成長。我們預期北美和國際個人護理業務在全年都將實現與各品類持平或更高的成長。

  • In terms of net sales, we expect both the first half and the second half to be roughly 50-50, so pretty even. But when you look at the growth in terms of quarterly pacing, we are planning for the innovation and the brand support to ramp up as we progress through the first quarter and then into Q2 and the balance of the year. So I would expect, as we built our outlook, to see organic growth to accelerate in the back half versus the first half of the year.

    就淨銷售額而言,我們預計上半年和下半年將大致各佔一半,基本持平。但從季度成長速度來看,我們計劃隨著第一季的推進,以及第二季和今年剩餘時間的到來,不斷加大創新和品牌支持。因此,根據我們的預測,下半年的自然成長速度將比上半年加快。

  • As it relates to the visibility of achieving the 40% before the end of the decade and the drivers and the progress, a couple of things. I mean, as we stated, margin progression is not going to be linear quarterly or year-on-year. However, we've made very strong progress over the last two years.

    關於在十年結束前實現 40% 目標的可見度、驅動因素和進展,有幾點需要說明。我的意思是,正如我們所說,利潤率的成長不會是按季度或按年線性增長的。然而,在過去的兩年裡,我們取得了非常顯著的進步。

  • We took a little bit of a step back on gross margin in 2025, and that partly was impacted by the inflationary elements that we were dealing with. As a reminder, we had around $200 million of input costs that we dealt with last year, and that included the headwinds, which were unexpected related to tariffs. As we go into this year, though, we're not expecting that. I mean, we're expecting costs actually to be largely flat. So that's one.

    2025 年,我們的毛利率略有下降,部分原因是受到當時通貨膨脹因素的影響。提醒一下,我們去年處理了約 2 億美元的投入成本,其中包括與關稅相關的意外不利因素。但就今年而言,我們並不預期會出現這種情況。我的意思是,我們預計成本實際上將基本保持不變。這是其中之一。

  • Secondly, we are expecting to deliver very strong productivity in the year. Another year that will hover around 6%, building on what we achieved in 2024 and 2025. So all in, we expect to expand margins, both gross and operating profit margins in the year in 2026, putting us well on pace to achieve our objectives of at least 40% before the end of the decade for gross margin and at least 18% to 20% in operating profit before 2030. So well on pace to deliver that. And again, that excludes any favorability or impact as we carry out the integration of Kenvue, Stephen.

    其次,我們預計今年的生產力將非常強勁。預計今年增速將維持在 6% 左右,並在 2024 年和 2025 年的成就基礎上繼續增長。綜上所述,我們預計到 2026 年,毛利率和營業利潤率都將有所提高,這將使我們預計在本十年末之前實現毛利率至少達到 40% 的目標,並在 2030 年前實現營業利潤率至少達到 18% 至 20% 的目標。目前看來,按計畫進行得很順利,應該可以實現這個目標。再次強調,這不包括我們在整合 Kenvue 過程中可能產生的任何有利影響或後果,Stephen。

  • Steve Powers - Analyst

    Steve Powers - Analyst

  • Perfect. Thank you, both. Very, very clear. Appreciate it.

    完美的。謝謝你們兩位。非常非常清楚。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Carey, Wells Fargo Securities.

    克里斯凱裡,富國證券。

  • Chris Carey - Analyst

    Chris Carey - Analyst

  • You gave some information just about the model from 2026 through 2028 with phasing and obviously implied in there is some medium-term growth expectations as well. You also established some of these expectations in the S/4. And can you just help reconcile or clarify whether there's been any evolution in the expectations as of the S/4 relative to where we are today?

    您提供了一些關於 2026 年至 2028 年模型的信息,包括分階段實施的情況,顯然也暗示了一些中期增長預期。你們也在 S/4 中確立了其中一些預期。您能否幫忙解釋一下,S/4 報告發佈時的預期與目前的情況相比是否有任何變化?

  • And maybe just because so much of this medium-term CAGR is anchored to an acceleration in 2028, just help us understand the visibility that you have and the confidence that you have that you can achieve those outcomes in a few years from now?

    或許正是因為中期複合年增長率很大程度上取決於 2028 年的加速成長,所以請您幫助我們了解您對未來幾年內實現這些目標的預期和信心?

  • Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Sure. So from a modeling standpoint, let me walk you through what we had in the S/4 and what we have for 2026. And to your point, our visibility and confidence in getting to our ambitions before the end of the decade.

    當然。所以從建模的角度來看,讓我帶您了解我們在 S/4 中擁有的內容以及我們對 2026 年的規劃。正如您所說,我們有能力也有信心在本十年結束前實現我們的目標。

  • So firstly, I mean, a couple of things. We've built into the outlook for this year, the momentum that we've got based on the innovation and all the activation plans that we've been building on through 2025 and what we have in place as we commence this year. There are two factors that are coming into the picture as we speak, for the outlook for the year, and they've come up in the past couple of months.

    首先,我的意思是,有兩件事。我們已將今年的發展前景、基於創新和所有激活計劃的勢頭以及我們為 2025 年制定的所有計劃和我們今年年初所採取的措施都納入其中。目前有兩個因素正在影響今年的前景,這兩個因素都是在過去幾個月出現的。

  • The first one is we've had a bit of softer than anticipated fourth quarter in the demand in North America and enterprise markets. And this resulted in a lower base of volumes and EBITDA for 2025, and that's reflected in the outlook.

    首先,北美和企業市場第四季的需求比預期要疲軟一些。這導致 2025 年的銷售量和 EBITDA 基數降低,這也反映在展望中。

  • The second bit is really around the partial loss of the diapers and training pants distribution in the North America club channel that we just talked about, both Russ and myself, which we are not able to fully offset in 2026. And as I mentioned, that will be a headwind of around 60 basis points of growth on the year that is reflected in our outlook. And that, of course, will be a difference that you would see versus what we would have had in the S/4.

    第二點實際上是關於我們剛才提到的北美俱樂部通路尿布和訓練褲分銷的部分損失,我和 Russ 都談到了這一點,而我們在 2026 年無法完全彌補這一損失。正如我之前提到的,這將對今年的成長造成約 60 個基點的不利影響,這已反映在我們的展望中。當然,這與我們在 S/4 中看到的有所不同。

  • That said, our ongoing business is well positioned to deliver results consistent with the long-term algorithm that we laid out in March of 2024. And these two factors are reflected in the outlook.

    也就是說,我們目前的業務發展狀況良好,能夠實現與我們在 2024 年 3 月制定的長期發展策略一致的成果。這兩個因素都反映在前景中。

  • On the top line, we -- based on all the innovation plans that we have, the commercial plans, we expect to deliver growth that's at or above global weighted average category growth globally. We are aiming for operating profit growth that's at the higher end of our mid- to high single-digit range.

    從整體來看,基於我們所有的創新計劃和商業計劃,我們預計全球成長將達到或超過全球加權平均品類成長水準。我們的目標是實現營業利潤成長,達到中高個位數成長區間的較高水準。

  • And as we support a significant step-up in new product activation across key markets, in another year, gross productivity that will approach 6% of cost of goods sold. And we will maintain our discipline on SG&A savings that you've seen flow through in the last couple of years through our Powering Care transformation.

    隨著我們在關鍵市場大力推動新產品推廣,預計一年後,毛生產力將接近銷售成本的 6%。我們將繼續嚴格控制銷售、一般及行政費用的節省,正如您在過去幾年透過「賦能關懷」轉型所看到的那樣。

  • If you look at adjusted EPS, we expect to be in line with 2025 levels on a constant currency basis, Chris. And this will reflect two things: one, the underlying growth, which will be consistent with our long-term algorithm. But there will be an offset. And that's because of the reduction in income from discontinued operations, which we expect to be roughly half of what we saw in 2025 levels with a midyear projected close of the IFP transaction.

    克里斯,如果你看一下調整後的每股盈餘,我們預計以固定匯率計算,將與 2025 年的水準持平。這將反映兩件事:一是潛在的成長,這將與我們的長期演算法保持一致。但會有抵消作用。這是因為終止經營業務的收入減少,我們預計到 2025 年,隨著 IFP 交易預計在年中完成,該收入將約為當時水準的一半。

  • Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • And then, Chris, I think you may not have asked us specifically, but I would say from the Kenvue perspective, I'll tell you, and we've been getting knee deep into the integration management process. I would tell you, we haven't seen anything that would change our view on the potential of this combination.

    然後,克里斯,我想你可能沒有特別問過我們,但從 Kenvue 的角度來看,我會告訴你,我們已經深入參與了整合管理流程。我可以告訴你,我們還沒有看到任何會改變我們對這種組合潛力的看法的事情。

  • Kenvue, they're going to be set to report the results on their usual timing, I think, which is early to mid-February. And then if you looked at the S/4 pretty hard, we did take a fairly -- or a somewhat more conservative view of their outlook and near midterm financial profile.

    Kenvue 將會依照慣例在二月初到二月中旬公佈結果。如果你仔細研究 S/4 報告,你會發現我們對他們的前景和近期中期財務狀況採取了相當保守的看法。

  • We plan to make pretty good investments into their brands and their portfolio and capabilities. And so we still see a generational value creation opportunity by putting these two companies together. Our focus is on making sure that both companies have great earnings capacity over the long term.

    我們計劃對他們的品牌、產品組合和能力進行相當可觀的投資。因此,我們仍然認為將這兩家公司合併能夠創造世代價值的機會。我們的重點是確保兩家公司在長期內都擁有強大的獲利能力。

  • Chris Carey - Analyst

    Chris Carey - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you. Yeah, keep going.

    好的。謝謝。是的,繼續。

  • Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah, you have the question on the visibility, and I'll reiterate that we have strong visibility into our plans on the productivity front to achieve the margin expansion and fund the brand investments that we have for the following years. As well as on the top line, our ability to grow at or ahead of the categories, largely driven by the very strong innovation pipeline that we've got for the next few years as well as our executional plans across the globe.

    是的,你問到了可見性的問題,我重申一下,我們對提高生產力的計劃有著清晰的認識,以實現利潤率的提升,並為我們未來幾年的品牌投資提供資金。除了營收成長之外,我們還能維持或超越各品類平均水準的成長,這主要得益於我們未來幾年非常強大的創新產品線以及我們在全球範圍內的執行計畫。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mike Lavery, Piper Sandler.

    麥克·拉弗里,派珀·桑德勒。

  • Michael Lavery - Analyst

    Michael Lavery - Analyst

  • I just want to follow up a little bit, I guess, on Steve's bonus question on the margins. Just would love to understand, you called out the significant reinvestment that you're expecting post deal. Just maybe how -- you said, of course, that it's not linear, but maybe how bumpy does it get? And we know some of the synergy pacing and how that plays out. But just maybe how much more can you unpack the path to 40% gross margins and 18% EBIT?

    我想就史蒂夫提出的關於邊角料的附加問題再補充一點。我只是想了解一下,您提到交易完成後您預計會有大量再投資。或許,正如你所說,這不是一條線性發展的道路,但這條路究竟會多麼崎嶇坎坷呢?我們也了解一些協同效應的節奏以及它是如何發揮作用的。但是,究竟還能有多少方法可以進一步揭示實現 40% 毛利率和 18% 息稅前利潤的路徑呢?

  • Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Well, hey, Michael, thanks for the question. Just a comment, I would say -- and I'm presuming you're talking about our standalone on our path to 40%. I think we're, overall, we feel like we're making strong progress. We have good -- very good visibility into our path to the 40% and 18% to 20% (inaudible) aspiration by 2030. In fact, I think we're probably pacing slightly ahead of what we originally planned.

    是的。嗨,邁克爾,謝謝你的提問。我只想提一點意見——我假設你指的是我們單獨營運的、目標是達到 40% 的業績。總的來說,我認為我們取得了顯著進展。我們對實現 2030 年 40% 和 18% 至 20%(聽不清楚)目標的道路有很好的——非常清晰的認識。事實上,我認為我們目前的進度可能比原計劃略微超前了一些。

  • Just to confirm or reiterate, Michael, these margin targets are milestones not a destination. And so we expect to exceed that when we can. And then you'll note that the IFP transaction does create a one-time impact and a better business for both businesses longer term. And we'll update you on that as we get closer to close.

    邁克爾,我再確認一下,這些利潤率目標是里程碑,而不是最終目標。因此,我們希望在條件允許的情況下超越這個目標。然後你會注意到,IFP 交易確實會產生一次性影響,並且從長遠來看,對兩家企業都有更好的業務發展。臨近截止日期時,我們會及時向您報告最新情況。

  • But again, I think we feel very good about our productivity delivery. We feel very good about the innovation that we have in the pipeline that's enabling us to drive positive mix and premiumize at the top end of the category and then grow volume by cascading those features down through the tiers. So I'll pause there. I don't know if there's anything else we want to click on there.

    但是,我再次強調,我們對自身的生產力交付情況非常滿意。我們對正在研發中的創新感到非常滿意,這些創新使我們能夠推動積極的產品組合,並在高端產品領域實現高端化,然後透過將這些功能向下推廣到各個層級來提高銷量。我就先說到這裡吧。我不知道那裡是否還有其他需要點擊的東西。

  • Michael Lavery - Analyst

    Michael Lavery - Analyst

  • No, that's really helpful. Yeah. Thank you.

    不,這真的很有幫助。是的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Robert Moskow, TD Cowen.

    Robert Moskow,TD Cowen。

  • Robert Moskow - Analyst

    Robert Moskow - Analyst

  • Nelson, the argument for gross margin expanding this year, I think, reflects how you had $200 million of input costs last year you didn't expect. And then it's not going to happen this year. But if I look back at '25, I mean, one of the -- was that pricing turned negative, the environment got a lot more competitive. What's to stop that from happening again in 2026?

    納爾遜,我認為今年毛利率擴張的理由是,去年你們出現了意料之外的 2 億美元投入成本。那麼,今年就沒戲了。但回顧 2025 年,其中一個原因是價格轉為負值,市場競爭變得更加激烈。有什麼能阻止這種情況在2026年再次發生?

  • It seems like the environment continues to be really competitive. You're losing some distribution in Costco. You might have to take steps to defend your turf and other retailers. I mentioned the name of the club. I'm just speculating, of course. But so how much cushion do you have in the model in case it does get into that kind of environment again?

    看來市場競爭依然非常激烈。你們在 Costco 的通路正在減少。您可能需要採取措施來捍衛您的地盤和其他零售商的利益。我提到了俱樂部的名字。當然,我只是猜測。但是,如果再遇到那種環境,你的模型有多少緩衝空間呢?

  • Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah. So a few things there, Rob. First, yeah, as you rightfully say, as you unpack why we expect margins to expand. One, costs are projected to be neutral year-on-year versus two years in which we faced about $200 million of costs. Secondly, productivity, gross productivity is expected to be right around the 6% level, which will be at the high end of our 5% to 6% and again, another record productivity level for us in the year.

    是的。羅布,有幾點需要說明。首先,是的,正如您所說,正如您所解釋的,我們預期利潤率會擴大。第一,預計成本將與前兩年持平,而前兩年我們面臨約 2 億美元的成本。其次,生產力方面,總生產力預計將達到 6% 左右,這將處於我們 5% 到 6% 目標的上限,這將是我們今年又一個創紀錄的生產力水準。

  • And then on the pricing bid, I think it's very important to go back to what we chatted early last year on what Russ mentioned. We made some strategic price pack architecture and channel price investments, particularly in North America in -- towards the end of Q4 of 2024.

    至於定價方面,我認為非常重要的是要回顧一下我們去年年初討論過的 Russ 提到的內容。我們在 2024 年第四季末,尤其是在北美地區,進行了一些策略性的價格包裝架構和通路價格投資。

  • So as you head into 2026, we're going to be lapping largely that. So that is going to be something that, again, based on what we've modeled and what we put together, that is one asset that will be different as we go into the year. So that changes year-on-year and it's reflected there.

    所以到了 2026 年,我們基本上將超越那個水準。所以,根據我們建立的模型和我們綜合考慮的結果,這將是今年內會有所不同的一項資產。所以這種情況每年都在變化,也反映在那裡了。

  • The channel mix and all that bit, that will continue to play out to some extent, but that's factored into the model, Rob. So hence, why we do see a little bit of a difference between '25 and '26 from that end and why we're, at this stage, confident in our ability to expand margins in 2026 back to where we had modeled before.

    頻道混合等等這些因素還會在一定程度上繼續發揮作用,但這已經納入模型中了,羅布。因此,從這個角度來看,2025 年和 2026 年之間確實存在一些差異,而且在現階段,我們有信心在 2026 年將利潤率擴大到我們先前預測的水平。

  • Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • And maybe, I'll stack on Rob, I think part of it is also, philosophically, we're really not interested in renting share through promotion. And especially, I think Russ mentioned it earlier on the call, which is -- it doesn't make sense in a category where consumption is relatively stable or almost fixed in a category like that tissue or diapers.

    也許我會把羅布也算進去,我認為部分原因也是,從理念上講,我們真的對透過推廣來出租股份不感興趣。尤其是,我認為 Russ 在之前的電話會議上也提到過這一點,那就是——在像紙巾或尿布這樣消費相對穩定或幾乎固定的類別中,這樣做沒有意義。

  • And so what we're really focused on -- and I think we had this in our prepared remarks, is having an operating model and a culture that's driving this notion of the elusive virtuous cycle, which we think is delivering great results. And that includes innovating at all runs of Good, Better, Best, especially at the top end and pulling it through the value tiers. And then as you're asking about, making sure that we can invest for impact.

    因此,我們真正關注的是——我認為我們在準備好的演講稿中也提到了這一點——建立一個營運模式和一種文化,以推動這種難以捉摸的良性循環理念,我們認為這會帶來巨大的成果。這包括在「好」、「更好」、「最好」的各個階段進行創新,尤其是在高端階段,並將創新貫穿到各個價值層級。然後,正如你所問的,確保我們能夠進行有影響力的投資。

  • And I think we've done a very good job of increasing our investment over the last several years, but also improving our -- maybe the effectiveness of our advertising and our marketing. And for us, we feel like that's a much more powerful lever to pull than trade promotion.

    我認為,過去幾年我們在增加投資方面做得非常好,同時也提高了我們的廣告和行銷成效。對我們來說,我們認為這比貿易促進更有力。

  • And so that's where we've been investing, and we're really seeing great results. And I think that's leading to -- that's been a driver of our last couple of years of strong volume plus mix growth. And we feel very well positioned for more volume and mix growth in 2026.

    所以,這就是我們一直在投資的方向,而且我們確實看到了非常好的成果。我認為這導致了——這也是我們過去幾年銷售和產品組合強勁成長的驅動因素。我們感覺自己已經做好充分準備,迎接 2026 年銷售和產品組合的進一步成長。

  • At the same time, to get this virtuous cycle, we have to have leading productivity, which we're delivering. And so we're really proud of. And so I think that's our focus and that's how we're going to run the play in 26.

    同時,為了實現這種良性循環,我們必須擁有領先的生產力,而我們正在實現這一點。所以,我們為此感到非常自豪。所以我認為這就是我們的重點,也是我們將在第 26 場比賽中執行戰術的方式。

  • Robert Moskow - Analyst

    Robert Moskow - Analyst

  • Yeah. I got it. I guess my question is, Nelson, you said that price realization was lower in '25 because of decisions you made in fourth quarter of '24. But with -- from our modeling, the pricing was weaker than expected during the course of '25 compared to the original guidance.

    是的。我得到了它。我想問的是,納爾遜,你說過 2025 年的價格實現率較低是因為你在 2024 年第四季所做的決定。但根據我們的模型,與最初的指導相比,2025 年的定價低於預期。

  • Am I wrong? Or was a down year for pricing always part of the plan? It seems like it was weaker than you thought. That's all I was asking.

    我錯了嗎?或者說,價格下跌這一年原本就在計畫之中?看來它比你想像的還要弱。我只是問這個而已。

  • Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • We always factored into the plan, one, the pricing actions that we were going to take at the end of the quarter in 2024. And there's always going to be a little bit of shift in programming, Rob, that plays into the year, and that comes up in actuals. But that was largely it.

    我們始終在計劃中考慮了以下因素:一是我們計劃在 2024 年季度末採取的價格措施。羅布,節目安排總是會有一些變化,這會影響到全年的節目,也會反映在實際節目中。但基本上就只有這些了。

  • I mean there will be a bit of move across channels, as Russ referred to. But overall, based on what we're planning we wouldn't see what we saw in '25 at this stage.

    我的意思是,正如Russ所提到的那樣,渠道之間會有一些轉移。但總的來說,根據我們目前的計劃,現階段我們不會再看到像 2025 年那樣的情況了。

  • Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • And Rob, keep in mind, I think Russ had mentioned earlier that -- and we've talked about on last quarter's call, where because of competitive activity, we held back on some of our Q3 programming, and we shifted it into Q4. So that would explain some of what you're looking at on a sequential basis.

    羅布,請記住,我想拉斯之前提到過——我們在上個季度的電話會議上也談到過——由於競爭活動,我們推遲了第三季度的一些項目,並將其轉移到了第四季度。這樣就能解釋你依序看到的一些現象了。

  • Great. If we can take one more question, that would be great.

    偉大的。如果可以再回答一個問題,那就太好了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Edward Lewis, Rothschild & Co.

    愛德華路易斯,羅斯柴爾德公司

  • Edward Lewis - Analyst

    Edward Lewis - Analyst

  • Yes. I guess a quick one just looking at the International business. So good share gains. You note again and obviously a good end to the year there. And as I look at the results for nine months on the International gross margins, there's around about a 7 percentage point gap between that and North America. So am I right in thinking that the International gross margin is a big opportunity? And what do you see as the drivers there?

    是的。我猜我只能快速瀏覽國際業務了。股價上漲勢頭良好。你再次提到,顯然那一年以一個美好的結尾收官。當我查看過去九個月的國際毛利率結果時,發現它與北美毛利率之間大約有 7 個百分點的差距。所以,我的理解是,國際毛利率是一個很大的機會,這種想法對嗎?你覺得那裡的司機怎麼樣?

  • Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Hey. Good to hear from you. Yes, International margins are an opportunity. It's something we're focused on improving. I'll let Russ talk a little bit more about it. We feel very good about the progress we're making in International, especially our focus markets.

    是的。嘿。很高興收到你的來信。是的,國際利潤空間是一個機會。這是我們正在努力改進的方面。我請拉斯再多說幾句。我們對在國際市場,特別是重點市場的進展感到非常滿意。

  • Russell Torres - President, Chief Operating Officer

    Russell Torres - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Yeah, I would say a few things. First, I do think that a key part to the equation for us growing is to meet consumer demand at every tier, and we talked a lot about the Good and the Better, but the Best is a big opportunity for us.

    是的,我想說幾點。首先,我認為我們發展的關鍵在於滿足各個層級的消費者需求,我們之前談了很多關於「好」和「更好」的內容,但「最好」對我們來說是一個巨大的機會。

  • And we've seen that where we've expanded margins in International geographies is developing that premium segment. And we believe that there's very, very significant upside in that, especially in geographies where the consumer is still developing and GDP growth continues to allow people to have more money to spend. And so that's one.

    我們已經看到,我們在國際市場擴大利潤率的地方,正是高端市場的發展。我們相信這方面有非常非常大的發展潛力,尤其是在消費者仍在發展、GDP持續成長使人們有更多錢可花的地區。這是其中之一。

  • I think the second thing is we've had no less of a focus on productivity internationally, and we've come up with some really great ways through the wiring that we've executed to be able to leverage our global scale that we've got in markets like North America and China and other geographies to help drive costs down. And so that's another big component.

    我認為第二點是,我們同樣非常重視國際生產力,並且透過我們實施的各項舉措,找到了一些非常好的方法,可以利用我們在北美、中國和其他地區等市場的全球規模來幫助降低成本。所以這是另一個重要因素。

  • I would just note that we've been growing significantly, and we've seen that sequentially unfold for us in the markets outside of North America and China. Brazil diapers, organic growth, mid-single-digit. South Korea diapers positive organic growth. Indonesia, positive organic growth, gaining share in Australia, so -- infant care and adult care.

    我想指出的是,我們一直在顯著成長,而且我們在北美和中國以外的市場也看到了這種成長勢頭。巴西尿布,有機成長,中個位數。韓國尿布市場實現積極的有機成長。印尼實現了積極的有機成長,在澳洲獲得了更多市場份額,因此——嬰兒護理和成人護理。

  • So that's another element to it. It's just the leverage that we'll get as we continue to scale the business. And looking forward to Kenvue, we think that's another really big opportunity potentially for us. So that's what I would say.

    所以這是另一個需要考慮的因素。這只是隨著我們不斷擴大業務規模而獲得的槓桿作用。展望 Kenvue 項目,我們認為這可能是我們面臨的另一個巨大機會。這就是我想說的話。

  • Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • And then, Ed, I'm excited about our share momentum. I mean we did see significant growth across IPC markets in 2025. Just to give you a few examples. I mean, overall, our focus markets, our top six markets in IPC were up about weighted share 50 basis points. China was up 270 basis points on diapers.

    還有,艾德,我對我們目前的股價上漲勢頭感到興奮。我的意思是,我們確實看到2025年IPC市場出現了顯著成長。舉幾個例子吧。我的意思是,總體而言,我們的重點市場,即IPC排名前六的市場,加權份額增長了約50個基點。中國尿布價格上漲270個基點。

  • And then outside China, fem care in Indonesia was up almost 200 basis points. Korea was up 60, Australia up 50; Brazil, up 40. And so -- so I think we're making very good progress across the board. And then if you think about International in '26, we expect to drive positive volume and mix-led growth ahead of the category.

    而在中國以外,印尼的女性醫療保健水準上升了近 200 個基點。韓國上漲 60 分,澳洲上漲 50 分,巴西上漲 40 分。所以——所以我認為我們在各個方面都取得了非常好的進展。展望 2026 年的國際市場,我們預期銷售量和產品組合的成長將領先其他品類。

  • We are targeting weighted share growth again long by -- led by our strong innovation and premiumization. And then expect operating profit dollar and margin gains reflecting the strong productivity and overhead management that we're doing. So thanks for the question, Ed.

    我們再次以加權市場佔有率長期成長為目標——這主要得益於我們強大的創新能力和高端化策略。然後,預計營業利潤和利潤率將有所增長,這反映了我們正在採取的強有力的生產力提升和成本控制措施。謝謝你的提問,艾德。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. And that does conclude our Q&A session for today. I will now hand the call back to Chris Jakubik for closing remarks.

    謝謝。今天的問答環節到此結束。現在我將把電話交還給克里斯·雅庫比克,請他作總結發言。

  • Christopher Jakubik - Head of Investor Relations

    Christopher Jakubik - Head of Investor Relations

  • Great. Well, thanks, everybody, for joining us today. For analysts who have follow-up questions, the Investor Relations team will be around all day to take them. So have a great day, and again, I appreciate the interest.

    偉大的。謝謝大家今天收看我們的節目。對於有後續問題的分析師,投資人關係團隊將全天在場解答。祝您今天過得愉快,再次感謝您的關注。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This does conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

    謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。您可以在此時斷開線路。感謝您的參與。