金百利克拉克 (KMB) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Kimberly-Clark second quarter 2025 earnings question-and-answer session.

早安，歡迎參加金佰利 2025 年第二季財報問答環節。

I will now hand over to Chris Jakubik, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我將把發言權交給投資人關係副總裁 Chris Jakubik。請發言。

Good morning. This is Chris Jakubik, Head of Investor Relations at Kimberly-Clark, and thank you for joining us. I'd like to remind everyone that during our comments today, we will make some forward-looking statements that are based on how we see things today. Actual results may differ due to risks and uncertainties, and these are discussed in our earnings release and our filings with the SEC.

早安.我是金佰利克拉克公司投資者關係主管Chris Jakubik，感謝您的參與。我想提醒大家，在今天的評論中，我們將根據我們目前對情況的看法做出一些前瞻性的陳述。實際結果可能因風險和不確定性而有所不同，這些風險和不確定性已在我們的財報和提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中進行了討論。

We will also discuss some non-GAAP financial measures during these remarks. These non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered a replacement for and should be read together with GAAP results. And you can find the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within our earnings release and the supplemental materials posted at investor.kimberly-clark.com.

我們也將在本演講中討論一些非 GAAP 財務指標。這些非 GAAP 財務指標不應被視為替代 GAAP 業績，而應與 GAAP 業績一併解讀。您可以在我們的收益報告和發佈於 investor.kimberly-clark.com 的補充資料中找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 的對帳表。

With that, I will hand it over to Mike for a few opening comments.

說完這些，我將把時間交給麥克，讓他發表一些開場白。

Okay. Thank you, Chris. The second quarter was one of the strongest and most active in our recent history. Our results are indicative of the excellent progress we're making in executing power in care. We accelerated momentum on the top line and delivered solid organic sales growth, fueled by our strongest line quarter in the last five years.

好的。謝謝你，克里斯。第二季是我們近年來業績最強勁、最活躍的季度之一。我們的業績表明，我們在執行護理業務方面取得了顯著進展。由於過去五年來最強勁的季度表現，我們加速了營收成長勢頭，並實現了穩健的有機銷售成長。

On a global basis, we gained weighted share and made significant share gains in several key categories in our largest markets.

在全球範圍內，我們在最大市場的幾個關鍵類別中獲得了加權份額並取得了顯著的份額成長。

Now regarding our top line momentum, I'd like to emphasize three points. First, we're energized by our progress in China and the early returns on how our playbook is being applied globally. Second, we believe it's important to meet consumers where they need us. Our strategy to deliver exceptional brand propositions across the value spectrum is paying off. Consumers seeking better value or trading within our portfolio, and we're delighted to retain them within our brand franchises, as you can see in the US standard data. Third, our performance is driven by excellent commercial execution, superior innovation and strong investment to differentiate our brands.

現在，關於我們的營收成長勢頭，我想強調三點。首先，我們在中國市場取得的進展以及我們在全球實施的策略所取得的早期回報，都讓我們充滿活力。其次，我們認為在消費者需要的地方滿足他們的需求至關重要。我們致力於在價值範圍內提供卓越品牌主張的策略正在取得成效。消費者尋求更高的價值或選擇我們的產品組合，我們很高興能將他們留在我們的品牌特許經營中，正如您在美國標準數據中所看到的那樣。第三，我們的業績源自於卓越的商業執行力、卓越的創新能力以及為實現品牌差異化而進行的強勁投資。

We delivered another quarter of industry-leading productivity, enabling us to reinvest when and where we see opportunity to support profitable growth. Our organizational rewiring is enhancing our agility. We're bringing the best of Kimberly-Clark to the world faster with better consumer solutions and lower product costs. We also took decisive action to focus our portfolio.

我們本季的生產力再次達到行業領先水平，使我們能夠在發現機會時及時進行再投資，以支持獲利成長。我們的組織架構重組提升了我們的敏捷性。我們正以更優質的消費者解決方案和更低的產品成本，更快地將金佰利克拉克的精髓推向全球。我們也採取了果斷行動，聚焦於我們的產品組合。

We're confident our joint venture with Suzano will unlock the full potential of international family care and professional. For Kimberly-Clark, it enables laser focus on our higher growth, higher margin North America and International Personal Care businesses.

我們相信，與 Suzano 的合資企業將充分釋放國際家庭護理和專業護理領域的潛力。對於金佰利而言，合資企業將使我們能夠更專注於更高成長、更高利潤的北美和國際個人護理業務。

As we enter the second half of the year, we expect to continue performing while transforming. We're realizing the vision of a refreshed and refocused Kimberly-Clark. We're confident in our ability to deliver consistent top-tier growth. We have great opportunity ahead of us. We will continue to enhance our capability to provide better care for a better world and create value for our shareholders.

進入下半年，我們預計在轉型的同時繼續保持業績成長。我們正在實現煥然一新、重新聚焦的金佰利願景。我們對自己持續保持頂級成長的能力充滿信心。我們面前還有巨大的機會。我們將持續提升自身能力，為更美好的世界提供更優質的護理，並為股東創造價值。

So with that, I'd like to open up the line for questions.

因此，我想開始回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Nik Modi, RBC Capital.

（操作員指示）Nik Modi，RBC Capital。

Maybe you could just talk about, obviously, a very strong quarter within the context of what's been going on pretty broadly across the space. So just two questions like any more specifics in terms of really what drove this level of outperformance. But more importantly, given everyone is kind of moderating their expectations for the back half of the year, and you guys obviously are suggesting otherwise, what's give us the reasons to believe on why we should feel comfortable with the outlook in the back half?

也許您可以談談，顯然，在整個行業普遍存在的背景下，這是一個非常強勁的季度。所以，我只想問兩個問題，關於是什麼推動瞭如此優異的表現，您能更詳細地說明一下嗎？但更重要的是，鑑於大家都在降低對下半年的預期，而您顯然建議不要這麼做，那麼，我們有什麼理由相信，為什麼我們應該對下半年的前景感到滿意呢？

Okay. Thanks, Nick. Great question. There's a lot to unpack in there. Maybe I'll start with hey, how do we see the state of the consumer. One, you could see in our approach overall that we've been talking about for a few quarters now. Our approach is to meet consumers where they need us. right? And so that's our starting point.

好的。謝謝，尼克。這個問題問得好。這裡面有很多東西要解釋。我先從「我們如何看待消費者的現況」開始。首先，你可以從我們幾個季度以來一直在討論的整體策略中看到這一點。我們的策略是滿足消費者的需求，對吧？這就是我們的出發點。

I'll talk about maybe how we're seeing it and maybe with a tilt toward North America, but I do see purchasing power under pressure, right, for consumers. And frankly, we don't really see a catalyst for that dynamic to change in the near to medium term.

我可能會談談我們對此的看法，或許會偏向北美，但我確實看到消費者的購買力面臨壓力。坦白說，我們確實沒有看到短期到中期內改變這種態勢的催化劑。

So for us, that does affect kind of the categories. However, I'll say the other thing that we've talked to you about our categories is they are essential. There's not a whole lot of substitutes for our products. And so because of that, demand remains resilient and the categories continue to demonstrate durable growth, right? And that's kind of a big deal for us. And I think that sets our categories apart from maybe what you're seeing in some of the other categories.

所以對我們來說，這確實會影響到某些品類。不過，我想說的是，我們之前跟您討論過，我們的產品至關重要。我們的產品幾乎沒有替代品。正因如此，需求依然保持強勁，這些品類也持續保持著持續的成長動能，對吧？這對我們來說意義重大。我認為這也讓我們的產品與其他類別有所不同。

If I just click through a couple of areas, I'd say definitely North America would exhibit durable growth. We're seeing penetration and frequency stable. Obviously, the bifurcation trends are continuing. But I think your question about, hey, why did it perform better than maybe what some expected is we took on this approach.

如果我隨便點幾個地區，我敢說北美肯定會呈現持久的成長。我們看到滲透率和頻率都很穩定。顯然，分化趨勢仍在持續。但我認為你問的「為什麼它的表現比一些人預期的要好」這個問題，是因為我們採取了這種方法。

I think you will start doing this last year, which is, hey, we want to have a great value proposition in every tier of the good, better, best ladder. And so we've been cascading some of our best kind of product features to our value tiers. And I would say, if you looked in the quarter, what's driving our demand is the innovation. So I think we feel good about that.

我想你們去年就開始這麼做了，也就是說，我們希望在「好」、「更好」、「最好」這三個層級中，都擁有出色的價值主張。所以我們一直在將一些最好的產品功能層層遞進到我們的價值層級。我想說，如果你回顧本季的情況，你會發現推動我們需求成長的是創新。所以我認為我們對此感到滿意。

I'd say in international markets, we have seen some frequency declines notably in I would say, more informal economies where pay is less stable, like in Latin America, we've seen that occur. But in international in our larger developed markets, we are seeing demand continue to be fairly stable. So we feel good about our progress through the first half.

我想說，在國際市場上，我們看到了一些頻率的下降，尤其是在一些較非正式的經濟體，這些經濟體的薪酬不太穩定，例如拉丁美洲，這種情況已經出現。但在我們規模較大的國際已開發市場，我們看到需求仍然相當穩定。因此，我們對上半年的進展感到滿意。

And then, therefore, I think your question about the second half, what gives us confidence I think we feel great about our pipeline. Again, I think the vast majority of the growth we've delivered in the first half has been driven by innovation. I think I said in the script, in the prepared remarks, 85% of our organic sales is driven by innovation, right? And so -- and a lot of that is just hitting in the second quarter.

因此，您關於下半年的問題是什麼讓我們充滿信心？我認為我們對我們的產品線非常滿意。我再說一次，我認為我們上半年實現的成長絕大部分是由創新驅動的。我記得我在講稿裡說過，在準備好的發言稿裡，我們85%的有機銷售額是由創新驅動的，對吧？所以——其中很大一部分是在第二季實現的。

And so we expect to continue to perform as we go through the balance of the year because we have great innovation at the premium tiers and at the mid-tiers to serve our consumer as well. So again, we expect continued strong performance through the balance of the year.

因此，我們預計在今年餘下時間裡，我們的業績將持續保持強勁，因為我們在高端和中端市場都有著卓越的創新，能夠更好地服務我們的消費者。因此，我們再次強調，我們預計今年餘下時間裡，我們的業績將持續強勁成長。

Lauren Lieberman, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的勞倫·利伯曼。

I wanted to just talk for a second, Honan, in particular on North America. Performance was so strong there this quarter and really was quite different than what we saw in scanner. And I had actually expected the professional business to be a drag on performance, so kind of going the other way versus scanners. So wondering if you square that for us a bit? And then also, I know you just spoke to Nick about confidence for the balance of the year. But I was curious about pacing. There was a bit of noisiness in the second half last year. So just anything you can share on phasing in the back half would be great.

Honan，我想簡單聊聊北美市場。本季北美市場表現非常強勁，與我們在掃描器業務方面看到的截然不同。我之前實際上預計專業業務會拖累業績，所以與掃描器業務相比，情況可能正好相反。您能否為我們解釋一下這個問題？另外，我知道您剛剛和Nick談到了對今年剩餘時間的信心。但我很好奇業務節奏如何。去年下半年有些波動。所以，能否分享一下下半年的分階段發展？

Yeah. Maybe No, I'm going to pass it over to Nelson. But I'll just -- my overall is on pacing when you're thinking about comps, there's a lot of noise in the year ago, and there's noise this year, too. So when you think about comps, there's just a lot of choppiness going on in the numbers. So right.

是的。也許吧。不，我要把這個交給尼爾森。不過，我——總的來說，當你考慮可比較數據時，我的節奏很慢，去年有很多噪音，今年也有很多噪音。所以，當你考慮可比較數據時，你會發現數據中有很多波動。所以，對。

And I'll seek to unpack that, Lauren. So a few things. And I'll on and on North America. In both scanner and reported results, I mean, we're seeing building momentum from a strong pipeline of activations and innovations that are winning with consumers across all the value tiers. .

勞倫，我會盡力解答這個問題。所以有幾件事。我會繼續談談北美市場。無論是在掃描數據還是報告結果中，我們都看到一系列強大的活化和創新正在積聚勢頭，這些舉措和創新正在贏得各個價位段消費者的青睞。

In Q2, in particular, shipments in North America consumer were about 100 basis points ahead of consumption, which was at 4.5% branded consumption. This was driven by a tailwind in retailer inventory shift, which are made up of two things: One, we're lapping prior year destock that we saw in Q2. And then we had a little bit of pipeline build this year related to some of the innovation that we've been putting into the marketplace and Mike just talked about. This amounted to about 110 basis points at the enterprise and about 170 basis points for North America. This was partly offset by lower private label shipments outside of the private label diaper contract that we exited in Q1 of this year.

尤其是在第二季度，北美消費者市場的出貨量比消費市場高出約100個基點，品牌消費量為4.5%。這要歸功於零售商庫存轉移的順風，這由兩件事組成：首先，我們彌補了去年第二季去庫存的不足。其次，我們今年也進行了一些產品線建設，這些產品與我們之前在市場上推出的一些創新產品有關，正如Mike剛才所提到的。這相當於企業市場出貨量成長了約110個基點，北美市場出貨量成長了約170個基點。這部分抵消了我們今年第一季完成的自有品牌尿布合約之外的自有品牌出貨量的下降。

And what this is driving is about 60 basis points of impact to total company and to North America, about 1 point in the quarter. Now as we think about the first half, shipments actually lagged consumption. And that was about 60 basis points when we think of the enterprise.

這對整個公司和北美地區的影響約為60個基點，本季約為1個基點。現在我們來看看上半年，出貨量其實落後於消費。就企業而言，這個數字約為60個基點。

Firstly, we're facing lower year-on-year North America private label shipments outside of the private label diaper contract that we exited, and we've been highlighting over the last couple of quarters. And this was again about 60 basis points of impact to the total company organic sales in the first half. And about 1 point to North America.

首先，除了我們已退出的自有品牌尿布合約外，北美自有品牌的出貨量同比下降，我們在過去幾季一直在強調這一點。這對公司上半年的整體有機銷售額造成了約60個基點的影響，其中北美地區的影響約為1個百分點。

Secondly, this year, there's one less day of shipments for the first half. whereas scanner data is apples-to-apples in terms of days, weeks versus the prior year. And this represents about 50 basis points of impact to organic sales at both enterprise and whatnot, and then in North America. And then this was partially offset by the tailwind from retailer inventory ships in North America, which was about 50 basis points on the enterprise and 80 basis points for North America.

其次，今年上半年的出貨量減少了一天。而掃描器的數據與去年相比，以天數或週數來計算，是完全一致的。這意味著對企業級和其他應用的有機銷售額，以及北美市場的有機銷售額，都產生了約50個基點的影響。然而，這部分抵銷了北美零售商庫存出貨帶來的順風效應，企業級銷售額約50個基點，北美市場約80個基點。

In terms of what to expect or how to think about the balance of the year, a couple of things and building on what Mike said. We have a strong slate of new product and go-to-market activations and innovations that has been ramping up as of Q2, and we expect to have that continue into the second half. And that will not just be in North America, but across our different markets in International Personal Care. And this will be helping us drive or sustain a volume mix led growth in the balance of the year. Consistent with our long-term algorithm, I mean we're continuing to target a growth for the balance of the year, that will be volume mix led.

關於今年剩餘時間的預期或思考，我想談幾點，並結合Mike之前提到的內容。我們擁有一系列強大的新產品、市場推廣和創新，這些舉措自第二季以來一直在加速推進，我們預計這種勢頭將持續到下半年。這不僅會在北美，還會在我們國際個人護理業務的不同市場持續下去。這將有助於我們在今年剩餘時間推動或維持以銷售組合為主導的成長。與我們的長期策略一致，我們將繼續以銷售組合為主導，實現今年剩餘時間的成長。

Currently, our categories, when we think of North America and International Personal Care are growing at a weighted average of around 2% and that's consistent with what we saw back in April. But remember, in April, when we talked about 1.5% to 2%, that included our discontinued operations. So this is solely for the North American combined.

目前，我們北美和國際個人護理類別的加權平均成長率約為2%，與我們4月的預期一致。但請記住，4月份我們所說的1.5%到2%的成長率，是包含了我們已停止營運的業務的。所以這只是北美地區的綜合成長率。

From a quarterly perspective, year-on-year, the third quarter and the fourth quarter will be driven by the year ago comparison as much as anything else. Q3 will be the easiest of comps versus prior year. There's about 30 basis points of tailwind at the enterprise level. And 50 basis points of tailwind in North America from the hurricane impacts on our shipments at the very end of September of last year. Which were recovered in Q4 as we spoke in January.

從季度角度來看，與去年同期相比，第三季和第四季的業績將在很大程度上取決於與去年同期的比較。與去年同期相比，第三季將是表現最穩定的季度。企業層面的順風約有30個基點。去年9月底，颶風對我們的出貨量造成了影響，北美地區也因此獲得了50個基點的順風。正如我們1月份所說，這些影響在第四季已經恢復。

Then as we think of the fourth quarter, last year, we also saw the benefit from panic buying due to the port strengths, which was about 40 basis points of benefit in the quarter for the enterprise and 60 basis points of benefit for North America. The combined impact of the hurricane and the panic buying will result in about a 70 basis point headwind to Q4.

回顧去年第四季度，我們也看到了由於港口強勁而引發的恐慌性搶購帶來的收益，這為企業當季帶來了約40個基點的收益，為北美帶來了約60個基點的收益。颶風和恐慌性搶購的綜合影響將為第四季帶來約70個基點的逆風。

But overall, we're expecting to maintain a solid volume mix driven organic growth in the second half and for the full year, leading category growth. But as you can see, as Mike pointed out, there's little bit of noise and wanted to unpack that. So you can have the details.

但整體而言，我們預計下半年及全年將保持穩健的銷售組合驅動的有機成長，引領各品類的成長。但正如您所見，正如Mike指出的那樣，目前存在一些不確定性，我們希望能夠對此進行分析。這樣您就可以了解詳細資訊了。

As you get all that, Lauren. Sorry, we're throwing a lot at you. Can I just lob in the one. I'll go back to -- sorry, but Nelson is loaded prepared here. But the -- here's -- where you started, strong performance in North America, underlying driver, great innovation I think, really strong improvement in our marketing.

勞倫，你明白了嗎？抱歉，我們給你提了很多問題。我能不能只說一個？我回到正題——抱歉，尼爾森已經準備好了。但——你一開始就提到了——北美市場表現強勁，潛在的驅動力，我認為是偉大的創新，以及我們行銷的真正強勁提升。

And then I would say the customer plans are as good as the innovation. And I think we're top rated an advantage. I think we're working exceptionally well to customers. And so that's kind of what's driving it. And I don't see what data you're looking at. And I should probably try to reconcile that. But North America, as Nelson mentioned, consumption in the second quarter was up 4.5%.

我想說的是，客戶計畫和創新一樣好。我認為我們的優勢非常突出。我認為我們為客戶提供的服務非常出色。這就是推動我們業績成長的因素。我不明白您指的是什麼數據。我可能應該嘗試解釋一下。但正如納爾遜所提到的，北美第二季的消費量成長了4.5%。

The range of our categories was from, I would say, low single digit, and that would be like back tissue around 4%, low single digit to up to near double digit in adult care. So I think consumption remains robust in our categories or as I said earlier to Nik, the consumption is very durable in our categories, and that's really driven by, I think excellent innovation and excellent execution.

我們各品類的銷售額成長範圍，我想說是低個位數，例如背部衛生紙的銷售額約為4%，而成人護理的銷售額則高達接近兩位數。所以我認為我們各品類的消費依然強勁，或者說，正如我之前對尼克所說，我們各品類的消費非常持久，而這主要得益於卓越的創新和出色的執行力。

Steve Powers, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的史蒂夫·鮑爾斯。

All right. Good morning, everybody. Thank you. So Nelson talked about volume mix led growth in the back half. So I wanted to kind of talk a little bit about the pricing environment in your pricing outlook. On the one hand, if we think about what we've heard year-to-date and through the second quarter, I think we've heard and we've seen pockets of increasing promotion competitive activity in certain areas, particularly in the U.S.

好的。大家早安，謝謝。納爾遜談到了下半年銷售組合驅動的成長。我想談談你們定價展望中的定價環境。一方面，如果我們回顧今年迄今為止以及整個第二季度的情況，我認為我們已經聽到並看到某些地區，尤其是在美國，促銷競爭活動有所增加。

On the other hand, obviously, there are inflationary pressures building indications that we should see some kind of pricing rolling through as we move through the back half into next year. So I guess in that context, just your overall assessment of competition, your pricing outlook for the balance of the year? And any expectations or considerations you have just for customer and consumer acceptance of that incremental pricing it gets to come.

另一方面，顯然，通膨壓力正在積聚，這表明隨著明年下半年的到來，我們應該會看到某種價格調整。所以，我想，在這種情況下，您對競爭的整體評估，以及您對今年剩餘時間的價格前景有何看法？您對客戶和消費者對即將到來的增量價格的接受度有何預期或考慮？

Yeah. I'll start, Steve, with -- I'll say our overall kind of philosophy on this is right now, we're really focused on driving volume and mix but we have to maintain PNOC or pricing net of commodity we have to have discipline on that, right? And so our approach is that PNOC, pricing net of commodities has to be 0 or greater, right? And so that's what we're trying to -- that's our overall approach. And so we've continuously deployed I would say, targeted revenue management actions across the board. And so in some cases, we have taken pricing earlier this year in some categories.

是的。史蒂夫，我先說一下——我們現在的整體理念是，我們非常專注於提升銷售和產品組合，但我們必須保持PNOC（商品淨價），我們必須對此有紀律，對吧？所以我們的方法是，PNOC（商品淨價）必須是0或更大，對吧？這就是我們正在努力的——這是我們的整體方針。因此，我們一直在全面部署有針對性的收益管理措施。在某些情況下，我們今年稍早已經對某些類別的定價進行了調整。

And then in some categories, we have adjusted downwards, particularly in opening price point packs and also some large account sizes. But that's kind of our overall approach year-to-year.

在某些類別中，我們進行了下調，尤其是在初始價格點套餐和一些大額帳戶規模方面。但這可以說是我們逐年推行的整體策略。

In terms of the promotional environment, Again, philosophically, we view promotion as a tactical lever to drive trial of great innovation. I'm not a fan of using it to try to drive growth because in our categories where consumption is more fixed, it doesn't -- promotion does not expand our categories, not these. And so again, we use it, if you look at us, our promotion intensity is, I would say, below what the category average is and remains that and a little bit below what it was recover time period back in 2019.

就促銷環境而言，從理念上來說，我們將促銷視為推動偉大創新嘗試的戰術槓桿。我並不推薦用它來推動成長，因為在我們的產品類別中，消費更固定，促銷並不能擴大我們的產品類別，至少在這些產品類別中不行。因此，我們再次強調，如果你觀察我們，你會發現我們的促銷強度低於同類產品的平均水平，並且總是保持這個水平，略低於2019年復甦時期的水平。

And so that's our overall approach because we feel great about the other levers that we are applying, which is great innovation, great marketing, great customer plans. So I don't know if that answers everything you're asking about.

這就是我們的整體策略，因為我們對正在運用的其他策略感到滿意，這些策略包括出色的創新、出色的行銷和出色的客戶計劃。所以，我不知道這是否解答了你所有的問題。

Yeah. I guess just in summation, just I guess, I'm gleaning from what you're saying is where you need it where you see opportunities, you feel good about your pricing power and not overly concerned about the competitive environment. Is that a fair summation?

是的。我想，總而言之，我想，從您所說的內容中，我了解到，您需要的是，您看到了機會，您對自己的定價能力感到滿意，並且不會過度擔心競爭環境。這樣的總結合理嗎？

Yes. Well, yes, I think -- again, I think our approach is we have to offset commodities and to be able to expand margins over time. And so that's just a discipline that we have to employ -- and we're not using pricing as a growth driver because, again, of the category dynamics of promotion.

是的。嗯，是的，我認為——我再說一遍，我們的方法是抵消商品價格的影響，並能夠隨著時間的推移提高利潤率。所以，這只是我們必須遵循的原則——而且我們不會將定價作為成長動力，因為促銷的品類動態。

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler. Your line is live.

謝謝。下一個問題來自派珀·桑德勒的邁克爾·拉弗里。您的電話正在直播。

Just wanted to unpack that outlook update a little bit. There's some constants, but obviously, also some changes with tariffs or some of the impact on the portfolio reshaping and you gave some details in the prepared remarks, but maybe just bridge the changes for us and put the bread comes together, and it feels like there's a good number of moving parts in three months till now -- three months ago until now.

我想稍微解釋一下這份展望更新。有一些不變的因素，但顯然也有一些變化，例如關稅，或對投資組合重塑的影響。您在準備好的發言稿中提供了一些細節，但也許只是為我們銜接一下這些變化，把事情搞定。感覺三個月以來──三個月前到現在──有很多變動。

Sure. Sure, Michael. There's obviously been a lot going on in the last 90 days, and we would expect more to come. So -- but a few things as I unpack and the outlook and bridge it to April. Our outlook is reflecting the momentum that we have in the business, which is grounded in sustainable actions, strong innovation and the execution plans that our teams in the field are carrying out. We're focusing on winning where it matters, and that's with consumers through our superior product offerings.

當然，當然，邁克爾。過去90天顯然發生了很多事情，我們預計還會有更多事情發生。所以——我先來分析一下，展望一下未來，並展望四月。我們的展望反映了我們業務的良好勢頭，這種勢頭植根於可持續的行動、強大的創新以及我們一線團隊正在執行的執行計劃。我們專注於在關鍵領域取勝，那就是透過我們卓越的產品贏得消費者的青睞。

On the top line, we're well positioned right now to deliver sustainable growth ahead of the categories. And through a volume and mix-led growth. Our organic growth is now based on our business in North America and IPC, where weighted average category growth is, as I said before, around 2% compared to the 1.5% to 2% growth that we had back in April, which included ISP. So we're excluding that. That's why you see category growth weighted a little bit higher, but still at the same levels that we had back then implied.

就營收而言，我們目前已做好準備，能夠領先其他品類實現永續成長。這得益於銷售量和產品組合驅動的成長。我們的有機成長目前基於北美和IPC業務。正如我之前所說，這兩個地區的加權平均品類成長率約為2%，而4月份的成長率為1.5%至2%，其中包括ISP。因此，我們將ISP排除在外。這就是為什麼您會看到品類成長的權重略高，但仍與我們當時預測的水平相同。

And we plan to continue to gain share has happened this quarter, where we had around 10 basis points of share gains on a weighted basis.

我們計劃繼續擴大市場份額，本季我們的加權市場份額增長了約 10 個基點。

As we look at operating profit, we're supporting a significant step-up in new product activations and launches across key markets. And growth productivity will continue to be a very strong driver of our ability to do that.

就營業利潤而言，我們正在支持在關鍵市場大幅提升新產品的啟動和發布。而生產力成長將繼續成為我們實現這一目標的強大驅動力。

As of the second quarter, we delivered on the first half about 5.5% of gross productivity as a percent of total cost of goods. And for the second quarter is actually 5.8%. We are aiming to be at the top end of the 5% to 6% range in gross productivity, and that's unchanged versus what we laid out in April.

截至第二季度，我們上半年的總生產力（佔總商品成本的百分比）約為5.5%。第二季的實際數字是5.8%。我們的目標是將總生產率保持在5%至6%的最高水平，這與4月份的預期相比沒有變化。

The other bit is that we are making very strong progress on the SG&A overhead savings, the $200 million that we had planned as part of Power & Care last year. And as we said back then, this would ramp up in 2025 and 2026. And we're seeing that play out in the first half, and that will continue through the second half based on our plans. So that again is unchanged versus April. As we look at adjusted operating profit growth, this will be based on the performance again of North America and IPC because now IFP is below OP and its discontinued operations.

另外，我們在銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）方面取得了非常顯著的進展，去年我們計劃在電力與護理業務中節省2億美元。正如我們當時所說，這筆開支將在2025年和2026年大幅增加。我們看到上半年的業績正在顯現，並且根據我們的計劃，下半年也將持續下去。因此，與4月份相比，這一數字保持不變。至於調整後的營業利潤成長，我們將再次基於北美和IPC的表現，因為目前IFP低於OP及其已停止營運的業務。

And one of the elements is negative overhead growth this year that's built into the plan. And right now, we -- at the midpoint, we expect to deliver low single-digit growth on a constant currency basis with a range that's in the low to mid in terms of operating profit. The change in our operating profit growth rate from flat to positive to low to mid-single digit is reflecting a combination of the lower expected net tariff impact.

其中一個因素是今年的間接費用負成長，這已納入計劃。目前，我們預期以固定匯率計算，營業利潤將達到低個位數成長，介於低至中等水準之間。我們的營業利潤成長率從持平到正成長，再到低至中等個位數的變化，反映了預期淨關稅影響降低等多種因素。

As I laid out in the prepared remarks, right now, we expect gross tariff impact of around $170 million, which is $130 million lower than the $300 million that we had estimated back in April, and we expect to offset around third or $50 million of that $170 million.

正如我在準備好的演講中所述，目前，我們預計總關稅影響約為 1.7 億美元，比我們 4 月份估計的 3 億美元低 1.3 億美元，我們預計將抵消這 1.7 億美元中的約三分之一，即 5000 萬美元。

And then on adjusted earnings per share, we've had favorability on three areas. One is the net tariff impact, which I just spoke, and that's built into the outlook. We're seeing some favorable currency as we laid out. It's about half of what we expected in April, all in.

調整後每股盈餘方面，我們在三個方面表現良好。首先是淨關稅的影響，我剛才提到了，這已納入我們的展望中。正如我們之前所預測的，我們看到了一些有利的貨幣因素。總體而言，這大約是我們4月預期的一半。

And then we're pausing depreciation and amortization on our discontinued operations of IFP. And that in and of itself represents about $0.16 of EPS for the full year. We saw $0.02 flow in the second quarter and about $0.14 would flow in the back half.

然後，我們將暫停已終止的IFP業務的折舊和攤提。這本身就相當於全年每股收益約0.16美元。我們在第二季看到了0.02美元的收益，下半年預計會有約0.14美元的收益。

So overall, we will keep investing. We expect our advertising and brand support to step up in the back half of the year to around 7% and versus a 6.4%, 6.5% that we've seen in the first half. And that's something that, again, if we see the opportunity, we will invest more to be able to sustain the vol mix momentum that we've seen in the first half of the year.

所以總的來說，我們將繼續投資。我們預計下半年的廣告和品牌支援將增至7%左右，而上半年的增幅為6.4%或6.5%。如果我們看到機會，我們將加大投資，以維持上半年的銷售組合成長動能。

I think a quick follow-up on the brand spend. You also called out some of the awards at Cannes and just how much improved that performance is what's driving the better execution? Is it just a bit more spend? Is it better capabilities? Or is there a pivot there and how you approach it?

我想快速跟進一下品牌支出。您也提到了坎城的一些獎項，以及業績的提升究竟有多大，是推動執行力提升的因素嗎？只是增加了一點支出嗎？還是能力提升了？還是存在一個關鍵點？您是如何應對的？

Yeah. Great question, Michael. Glad you picked up on that. I would say it's all about better capability and, I would say, more focused from the company. I think -- I'd say the focus part is, again, historically, and this comes with our rewiring of our organization, our marketing was very decentralized, right? And we had a lot of agencies and a lot of individual markets made individual decisions, all those things.

是的。邁克爾，這個問題問得好。很高興你注意到了。我想說，這一切都是為了提升公司的能力，以及更專注。我想說，專注的部分，從歷史上看，這伴隨著我們組織的重組，我們的行銷非常分散，對吧？我們有許多代理機構，許多不同的市場都各自做出決定，諸如此類。

And while I still have a lot to say and control over the marketing, I think this new organization for us under Patricia Corces leadership, our new Chief Growth where she's not new anymore, but our Chief Growth Officer, is really bringing a different philosophy, right? And so -- and I think the opportunity that she pointed out is that what we really had to invest more effort is developing an emotional connection to our brands.

雖然我對行銷仍然有很多發言權和控制權，但我認為，在帕特里夏·科爾塞斯（Patricia Corces）領導下，這個新組織確實帶來了不同的理念，她不再是新人了，而是我們的首席成長官，對吧？所以，我認為她指出的機會是，我們真正需要投入更多精力的地方，是與我們的品牌建立情感連結。

We've always been great at bringing technical features and differentiation to the product. We're okay. We are historically okay at demonstrating those technical features through demos. But really, what we're focusing more on is building that brand love or the emotional connection. And so maybe the operative word that I will tell you that's leading to our improved performance is in-house. We're bringing a lot of capability in-house. We still use agencies to consolidate to a few great ones. But a lot of the stuff we're doing in-house.

我們一直非常擅長為產品注入技術特性和差異化。我們做得還不錯。我們過去一直擅長透過演示來展示這些技術特性。但實際上，我們更注重的是建立品牌喜愛或情感連結。所以，我想說，促使我們業績提升的關鍵字或許是「內部」。我們正在將很多能力引入內部。我們仍然會透過代理商整合到少數幾個優秀的代理商。但很多工作都是我們內部完成的。

For example, in China, we're making a lot -- many, many, many maybe hundreds of ads a day that are AI fuel, but those are in-house generated, right? And then in-house deployed to media. And that's a different capability that is newer to us just over the past few years. And that's -- we feel like in that instance, this in-house capability brings us speed of execution plus improved creative quality.

例如，在中國，我們每天製作大量——甚至可能是數百條——基於人工智慧的廣告，但這些廣告都是內部生成的，對吧？然後內部部署到媒體。這是我們在過去幾年才掌握的新技術。我們認為，這種內部能力不僅提高了我們的執行速度，也提升了創意品質。

The other part of in-house for us is Patricia has brought in some fantastic team members to lead our creative development. And these are some of the most awarded creative directors in advertising over the last decade, and they're now in-house with us working with our brand teams locally, but also working with the creative agencies directly to inspire the creative that we need.

對我們來說，內部團隊的另一部分是派翠西亞引進了一些非常優秀的團隊成員來領導我們的創意開發。他們是過去十年廣告界獲獎最多的創意總監，現在他們在我們公司內部，不僅與我們當地的品牌團隊合作，還直接與創意代理商合作，為我們帶來所需的創意靈感。

And if you look at the slide deck that we presented earlier. There's this one with the pop poncho, which I said is kind of a tongue and sheet thing. But if you look at that ad and you just thought about that idea, it could have gone really gross or it could have been really flat or really boring or stupid. But I think the creative came out great and is doing everything we want to do because I think the creative team took exceptional care in all the details of the execution of that ad. And so that's what's going on. It's a new us.

如果你看看我們之前展示的幻燈片，裡面有一件流行斗篷，我之前說過，它有點像舌頭和床單的組合。但如果你仔細看那則廣告，想想這個想法，你可能會覺得它很噁心，很平淡，很無聊，很愚蠢。但我認為創意很棒，而且達到了我們想要的效果，因為我認為創意團隊在執行廣告的所有細節上都非常用心。這就是現在的情況。這是一個全新的我們。

As I mentioned, I think we doubled our award total from the prior five years, just this year at Cannes and so I think we're heading in the right direction.

正如我所提到的，我認為光是今年坎城影展的得獎總數就比前五年翻了一番，所以我認為我們正朝著正確的方向前進。

Bonnie Herzog, Goldman Sachs

邦妮·赫爾佐格，高盛

I had a quick question on your JV deal with Suzano. With the IFP out of the base business, how should we think about the organic sales growth and margin accretion to your long-term algo. And then you touched on this a bit, but volume in the quarter was strong and broad-based. But I guess I just wanted to verify, there wasn't any pull forward, I mean, you highlighted some benefits given changes in retail inventories. So maybe hoping for just a little bit more color on that and how you're thinking about that in the second half. Ultimately, should we assume volume growth in 2H?

我有一個關於您與 Suzano 的合資協議的簡短問題。由於 IFP 已退出基礎業務，我們該如何看待有機銷售額成長和利潤率成長對你們長期演算法的影響？您之前稍微提到了這一點，但本季的銷量強勁且基礎廣泛。但我想確認一下，銷售量並沒有提前，我的意思是，您強調了零售庫存變化帶來的一些好處。所以，希望您能更詳細地說明這一點，以及您對下半年的展望。最終，我們應該假設下半年銷售會成長嗎？

Yeah, let me just start on the volume or the -- here's the thing for us. And where I'm pleased with the performance is our consumption globally was strong. and it all starts with consumption. And actually, we tend to manage on consumption. And then we recognize there's inventory changes, but we don't overly try to manage the retail inventory changes because in the long run, shipments must equal consumption.

是的，我先從銷售開始說起──我們的情況是這樣的。我對業績感到滿意的地方在於，我們全球的消費表現強勁。一切都始於消費。實際上，我們傾向於管理消費。我們意識到庫存會發生變化，但我們不會過度管理零售庫存的變化，因為從長遠來看，出貨量必須與消費量持平。

And that's what I tend to focus on. And so as I just mentioned, North America 4.5% consumption growth on our brands, in the second quarter. And then again, the range, pretty good performance internationally as well on that front. And so we feel good about that.

這正是我關注的重點。正如我剛才提到的，第二季北美地區我們品牌的消費量成長了4.5%。此外，我們的產品系列在國際市場的表現也相當不錯。我們對此感到滿意。

There was a little bit of inventory built for the reasons that I think Nelson articulated, but there was also some retail inventory takeout in the first quarter, which we didn't really talk about either. So I think overall, we feel good about that.

出於我認為尼爾森闡述的原因，我們確實增加了一些庫存，但第一季也有一些零售庫存被清理，我們也沒有具體討論過。所以總的來說，我們對此感到滿意。

I think with regard to IFP, maybe a couple of points. I would say we remain committed to our long-term algorithm that we presented at the Investor Day last year. I would say that this transaction should improve our ability or a liability to be able to deliver consistent top-tier growth over time, right? So our algorithm on organic was predicated on growing ahead of our categories. And the personal care categories globally are, for us, a little bit margin accretive and also more consistently growing. And so we expect our growth profile to continue to improve over time. And as a function of the innovation that we have, the marketing and the activation.

關於IFP，我想說幾點。我想說的是，我們仍然致力於去年投資者日提出的長期成長策略。我想說的是，這筆交易應該會提升我們的能力，或者說，是提升我們長期持續實現頂級成長的能力，對嗎？我們的有機成長策略是基於領先其他品類的成長。對我們來說，全球個人護理類別的利潤率略有成長，而且成長也更加穩定。因此，我們預計我們的成長前景將隨著時間的推移而持續改善。這得益於我們現有的創新、行銷和活化機制。

On the bottom line, again, I think we're making very, very good progress on the margins. We have great visibility to our 40% gross margin and 18% to 20% Operas aspirations by 2030 I did want to point out those are milestones not targets, right? And so we're not trying to get there. We're trying to get beyond there. We just put out an interim milestone I do think -- and Nelson, you may want to comment, the IFP transaction does create a onetime impact.

歸根結底，我認為我們在利潤率方面取得了非常非常好的進展。我們非常清楚，到2030年，我們的毛利率將達到40%，Opera的利潤率也將達到18%到20%。我想指出的是，這些都是里程碑，而不是最終目標，對吧？所以我們不是想直接達到目標，而是想超越目標。我們只是公佈了一個中期里程碑，我認為——納爾遜，你可能想評論一下，IFP交易確實會產生一次性的影響。

So it's going to accelerate us a little bit further on the margin side. But we'll update you on what that's going to be when we get closer to the close.

所以這會進一步加速我們的利潤成長。不過，我們會在接近收盤時向大家通報具體情況。

Right. And just building on that, I mean, by two things as we think about IFP, and I talked about it earlier, what's happening is -- when we strip out IFP, we are seeing underlying category growth that's a tad higher than what we had before. And this buttresses our thinking around the fact that we have a North America and international personal care business that's growing faster, that has a higher gross margin.

是的。基於此，我想說的是，當我們考慮IFP時，有兩件事我之前也提到過，那就是──當我們剔除IFP後，我們發現基礎品類的成長比之前略高。這鞏固了我們的想法，我們的北美和國際個人護理業務成長更快，毛利率也更高。

And overall, we expect to continue to grow through volume and mix in the foreseeable future. ahead of the categories. And that's really what this is. As we think about the milestone that Mike talked about, it's -- we are on pace to get to that 40% -- at least 40% gross margin and at least the 18% to 20%. And if anything, it would be faster than 2030 because of the move that we've made.

整體而言，我們預期在可預見的未來，銷售量和產品組合將持續成長，領先其他品類。這就是我們目前的狀況。說到麥克提到的里程碑，我們正朝著40%的目標邁進——至少達到40%的毛利率，以及至少達到18%到20%的利潤率。而且，由於我們採取的舉措，這個目標會比2030年更快實現。

I reached the allotted time for Q&A. I will now hand the conference back to Chris Jakubik for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

問答時間已到。現在，我將把會議交還給 Chris Jakubik，請他致閉幕詞。請大家繼續。

Well, thanks, everybody, for joining us. We know there are multiple calls today that you need to get to. So do appreciate your attention today. If you have any follow-up questions, we'll be around to take them for the remainder of the day. Thanks again, and have a great one.

好的，感謝各位的參與。我們知道今天有多個電話會議需要您接聽。所以非常感謝大家今天的關注。如果您有任何後續問題，我們將在今天剩餘的時間內為您解答。再次感謝，祝您一切順利。

Thank you. Everyone, this concludes today's event. You may disconnect at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝大家。今天的活動到此結束。大家可以下線了，祝大家有個美好的一天。感謝大家的參與。