金百利克拉克 (KMB) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, welcome to the Kimberly-Clark's third quarter 2024 question-and-answer session.

您好，歡迎參加金佰利 2024 年第三季問答會。

I will now turn the conference over to your host, Chris Jakubik, Vice President, Investor Relations.

現在我將會議交給東道主投資者關係副總裁 Chris Jakubik。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And hello, everyone.

大家好。

This is Chris Jakubik, Head of Global Investor Relations at Kimberly-Clark, and welcome to our Q&A session for our third quarter 2024 business update.

我是金佰利全球投資者關係主管 Chris Jakubik，歡迎參加我們的 2024 年第三季業務更新問答環節。

During our remarks today, we will make some forward-looking statements that are based on how we see things today.

在今天的演講中，我們將根據我們今天的看法做出一些前瞻性聲明。

Actual results may differ due to risks and uncertainties and these are discussed in our earnings release and our filings with the SEC.

由於風險和不確定性，實際結果可能有所不同，這些內容在我們的收益報告和向 SEC 提交的文件中進行了討論。

We will also discuss some non-GAAP financial measures today.

今天我們也將討論一些非公認會計準則財務指標。

These non GAAP financial measures should not be considered a replacement for and should be read together with GAAP results.

這些非公認會計原則財務指標不應被視為替代公認會計原則結果，而應與公認會計原則結果一起閱讀。

And you can find the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within our earnings release and the supplemental materials posted at investor.kimberly-clark.com.

您可以在我們的收益報告和投資者.kimberly-clark.com 上發布的補充資料中找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 的調整表。

Before we begin, I'm going to hand it to our Chairman and CEO, Mike Hsu, for a few quick opening comments.

在開始之前，我將請我們的董事長兼執行長 Mike Hsu 進行一些簡短的開場評論。

Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，克里斯，大家早安。

I want to let you know our team has made great strides advancing our power and care strategy, bolstering our confidence to deliver above our long-term growth algorithm in 2024.

我想讓您知道，我們的團隊在推進我們的電力和護理策略方面取得了長足進步，增強了我們在 2024 年實現超越長期成長目標的信心。

To be global category leaders, we must lead growth in our categories.

要成為全球品類領導者，我們必須引領我們品類的成長。

We're executing and making steady progress on our strategy to achieve this.

我們正在執行並穩步推進實現這一目標的策略。

We're driving consumption and growing our share across categories and markets, driven by our acceleration and innovation and enhanced commercial execution.

在我們的加速和創新以及增強的商業執行力的推動下，我們正在推動消費並擴大我們在各個類別和市場的份額。

Our productivity is fueling our investments in innovation to support our growth initiatives while delivering our bottom-line growth aspirations.

我們的生產力正在推動我們對創新的投資，以支持我們的成長計劃，同時實現我們的底線成長願望。

We've achieved key milestones and our transformation is on track with no disruptions.

我們已經實現了關鍵的里程碑，我們的轉型正步入正軌，沒有受到任何干擾。

Notably, on October 1, we successfully completed our new organizational structure to become a better, faster, and stronger organization.

值得注意的是，10 月 1 日，我們成功完成了新的組織架構，成為一個更好、更快、更強的組織。

We're rapidly transforming Kimberly-Clark to thrive in an increasingly complex and competitive global environment.

我們正在迅速改造金佰利，以便在日益複雜和競爭日益激烈的全球環境中蓬勃發展。

However, there are some discrete headwinds that we are -- that are creating pressures on growth in the near term.

然而，我們面臨一些離散的阻力，這些阻力正在對短期內的成長造成壓力。

And these include retail inventory reductions as our service levels improve, lower demand in private label businesses that we're exiting, and weaker-than-anticipated demand in North American professional channels and some pockets of deceleration in Asia and Latin America.

其中包括隨著我們服務水準的提高而減少零售庫存、我們正在退出的自有品牌業務的需求下降、北美專業管道的需求弱於預期以及亞洲和拉丁美洲的一些減速。

And the actions that we're taking as part of our transformation strategy are positioning us to navigate a dynamic consumer and retail environment, accelerate investments across the enterprise so that we can lead market growth, and enhance the value of Kimberly-Clark for all of our stakeholders.

作為轉型策略的一部分，我們正在採取的行動使我們能夠駕馭充滿活力的消費者和零售環境，加速整個企業的投資，以便我們能夠引領市場成長，並為所有人提升金佰利的價值。者。

So with that, I'd like to open it up for questions.

因此，我想公開提問。

(Operator Instructions) Lauren Lieberman, Barclays.

（操作員說明）Lauren Lieberman，巴克萊銀行。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

So I wanted to just touch first on retail inventory because you had talked about, before the quarter, some expectation you were lapping some we build last year.

因此，我想先談談零售庫存，因為您在本季之前談到了您對我們去年建立的一些庫存的一些預期。

But this has really been, I guess, a source of a volatility.

但我認為，這確實是波動的根源。

So was curious if you talk about how you think about it where service level stands today.

因此，我很好奇您是否能談談您對當今服務水準的看法。

And also, is there anything going on from a shelf space standpoint?

另外，從貨架空間的角度來看，有什麼改變嗎？

Because again, the disconnect between shipments and consumption has been such a source of volatility.

因為運輸和消費之間的脫節再次成為波動的根源。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Lauren.

謝謝，勞倫。

Yeah.

是的。

No disconnect from shelving.

無需與架子斷開連接。

I mean, we feel very good about our distribution growth and SKU count, I think, remains robust.

我的意思是，我們對分銷成長感到非常滿意，而且我認為 SKU 數量仍然強勁。

And we have a great innovation pipeline that we're bringing in that will continue to support that.

我們擁有強大的創新管道，將繼續支持這一點。

So I would say the retail inventory reductions, they may be a little localized to us and do reflect -- as you point out, Lauren, reflect the supply challenges we had last year.

因此，我想說，零售庫存的減少可能對我們來說有點局部化，並且確實反映了——正如你所指出的，勞倫，反映了我們去年面臨的供應挑戰。

Just to give you a little -- just to remind you, we had a packaging supplier that was down for a couple of months last year that impacted most of our personal care brands in North America.

只是為了提醒您一點，我們有一家包裝供應商去年停工了幾個月，這影響了我們在北美的大多數個人護理品牌。

And as we got back into supply, I think we got fully back in the supply third quarter of last year.

當我們恢復供應時，我認為我們去年第三季完全恢復了供應。

And so you could see in that chart that we had in our presentation, kind of a spike in inventories in the third quarter last year and we're cycling that this quarter.

因此，您可以在我們簡報中的圖表中看到，去年第三季的庫存激增，本季我們將循環這一情況。

So I think that's really the overall driver.

所以我認為這確實是整體驅動力。

So between restocking last year, reductions this year, and the hurricane, we've seen about an 80 basis point overall headwind to global net sales year-to-date primarily in North America.

因此，在去年的補貨、今年的庫存減少和颶風之間，我們看到今年迄今的全球淨銷售總體阻力約 80 個基點，主要是在北美。

And as I said, that reflects, I'd say, an improving service environment from our side and potentially, impact from higher financing costs for inventory.

正如我所說，這反映了我們這邊服務環境的改善，以及庫存融資成本上升的潛在影響。

At the end of the quarter, I'd say retail inventories look consistent to us with historical levels.

在本季末，我認為零售庫存看起來與歷史水準一致。

So hopefully, I think we're -- we should be mostly through it.

因此，我認為我們應該能夠基本渡過難關。

But I would say, hey, you are working through some dynamism in the environment.

但我想說，嘿，你正在環境中發揮一些活力。

And so we could still see some further reductions through the retail or fiscal year ends, which happened in Q3 of next year.

因此，我們仍然可以看到零售或財政年度結束時進一步減少，這發生在明年第三季。

So if that persists at similar levels in Q4, we could be closer to a 3% organic growth for the full year.

因此，如果第四季度保持類似水平，我們全年的有機成長可能會更接近 3%。

Okay.

好的。

Yeah, and a few things just to add on, as we think about the inventory, the hurricane impacts, and what we had in Q3, Lauren, the quarter consumer offtake in North America is pretty strong, both in personal care, consumer tissue combined.

是的，還有一些事情需要補充，當我們考慮庫存、颶風影響以及第三季度的情況時，勞倫，北美季度的消費者購買量非常強勁，無論是在個人護理方面還是在消費紙巾方面。

It grew 3.2%, so ahead of the category.

它增長了 3.2%，領先於同類產品。

And the disconnect, if you will, is really with the shipments and that was impacted by a couple of factors.

如果你願意的話，這種脫節確實與出貨量有關，並且受到幾個因素的影響。

One, transitory factors.

一、暫時性因素。

And that's the retail inventory changes, which again, we lapped a bill last year.

這就是零售庫存的變化，我們去年再次通過了一項法案。

We had a slight reduction in inventories again in Q3 of this year.

今年第三季我們的庫存再次小幅減少。

Then we had the impact of the hurricane at the end of the quarter with shipments out of the Southeast.

然後，我們在本季末從東南部發貨，受到了颶風的影響。

And then lastly, some, some drops in private label volumes from both businesses we're exiting as well as some business we'll next year.

最後，我們正在退出的兩項業務以及我們明年將退出的一些業務的自有品牌銷售都出現了一些下降。

The other bit to take into account is there was some underlying demand weakness in professional and some international markets that Mike referred to.

另一件需要考慮的事情是麥克提到的專業市場和一些國際市場存在一些潛在的需求疲軟。

But the key is the shortfall in Q3, about two-thirds is attributable to the transitory factors that I just referred to.

但關鍵是第三季的不足，大約有三分之二是我剛才提到的暫時性因素造成的。

And if you think about the North America business, in particular, the combination of these two led to about a 280 basis point headwind in North America personal care whereas in consumer tissue, that was around 350 basis points in consumer tissue in North America.

如果你特別考慮一下北美業務，這兩者的結合導致北美個人護理品市場逆風約 280 個基點，而在消費紙巾市場，則為北美消費紙巾市場逆風約 350 個基點。

So overall, that's how you would be able to bridge the two numbers.

總的來說，這就是連接這兩個數字的方法。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

And I was just curious just in the Nielsen data, for what it's worth, we've seen surge in some of your categories in and around port strike.

我只是對尼爾森的數據感到好奇，無論其價值如何，我們已經看到港口罷工及其周圍的一些類別激增。

There's been questions around consumer takeaway ahead of the hurricane.

颶風來臨之前，消費者外送一直存在疑問。

So did you see that anything to just consider in terms of shipment dynamics?

那麼您是否認為在出貨動態方面有什麼需要考慮的地方？

And any things to think about for 4Q, that would be

第四季需要考慮的任何事情都是

(multiple speakers)

（多個發言者）

Yeah, Lauren, I would say we're not really expecting any benefit from any stock up behavior by consumers.

是的，勞倫，我想說的是，我們並不真正期望消費者的任何庫存行為能帶來任何好處。

I'd say, yeah, we did see a little bit of it related to both the hurricane, and potentially, the port strike.

我想說，是的，我們確實看到了一些與颶風有關的事情，也可能與港口罷工有關。

You know, I'd say not meaningful at an enterprise level, and we would expect we'll work through that in the in the quarter.

你知道，我想說這在企業層面沒有意義，我們預計我們將在本季解決這個問題。

Nik Modi, RBC capital Markets

尼克莫迪，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場

Good morning, guys.

早安，夥計們。

So Mike, maybe you can just talk about market shares.

麥克，也許你可以只談談市場佔有率。

In the release, you suggested things look pretty good from that standpoint.

在版本中，您建議從這個角度來看事情看起來相當不錯。

So I wanted to get your thoughts on that and just a competitive environment, in general.

因此，我想了解您對此以及整體競爭環境的看法。

But just kind of tagging on to that -- on innovation, I mean, some of the data we've seen out of numerator on some of your innovation like skin essentials suggest there's a very high cannibalization rate.

但我要強調的是，關於創新，我的意思是，我們從分子中看到的一些關於皮膚必需品等創新的數據表明，蠶食率非常高。

And so I just wanted to get your thoughts on kind of how you think about, innovation and, and the role it's going to play.

所以我只是想了解你們對創新的看法，以及它將發揮的作用。

Is this really about market tier gains or is this about expanding the value pool as you've been suggesting with some of the price tier opportunities that you have in the US and other markets?

這真的是關於市場層級的收益，還是像您在美國和其他市場擁有的一些價格層級機會所建議的那樣，是為了擴大價值池？

Okay.

好的。

I'll try to answer all of that, Nik.

我會盡力回答所有這些問題，尼克。

You may have to steer me depending on how I answer.

你可能需要根據我的回答來引導我。

But I think the short answer is, hey, we're after growing our market shares overall and we're after expanding the category.

但我認為簡短的答案是，嘿，我們追求整體市佔率的成長，我們追求擴大品類。

So it's both of those.

所以兩者都是。

I'd say I feel very good about the progress overall that we're making on market share and for the quarter.

我想說，我對我們在市場佔有率和本季取得的整體進展感到非常滿意。

I think, overall -- I think, we're globally overall about flat on a weighted basis.

我認為，總體而言，我認為，在加權基礎上，我們在全球範圍內總體持平。

And on a cohort basis, I'd say we -- slightly more than half, which is an improvement versus this time a year ago, pretty significant improvement.

在隊列的基礎上，我想說我們——略多於一半，與一年前的這個時候相比，這是一個進步，相當顯著的進步。

Importantly, I think in the US where we're making strong progress and so we have this discrepancy in consumption.

重要的是，我認為在美國我們正在取得巨大進展，因此我們在消費方面存在差異。

Consumption is very solid and we're up or even in seven of eight categories versus year ago in the quarter and eight of eight, sequentially.

消費非常穩定，本季八個類別中有七個與去年同期相比有所上升，八個類別中的八個連續成長。

So I think we're making good progress on the market share front and that's really driven by the strategy that we've been talking to you all about, Nik, which is, hey, we're investing to make better products in pioneering innovation.

因此，我認為我們在市場份額方面取得了良好的進展，這實際上是由我們一直在與大家談論的策略所驅動的，尼克，也就是說，嘿，我們正在投資以在開拓創新中製造更好的產品。

We're investing to improve our advertising and driving strong commercial activation, and we're pulling all those levers together.

我們正在投資改善我們的廣告並推動強大的商業激活，並且我們正在將所有這些槓桿結合在一起。

So I think your question on innovation is -- and overall, as we look to premiumize or drive trade up on our categories, obviously, our preferred path is to do that in a margin-accretive way, right?

所以我認為你關於創新的問題是——總的來說，當我們尋求高端化或推動我們品類的貿易成長時，顯然，我們首選的途徑是以增加利潤的方式做到這一點，對嗎？

And so if you're driving premium innovation, that should be at a higher margin.

因此，如果你正在推動高端創新，那麼利潤率應該會更高。

I'd say the overall goal is to delight the consumer in whatever way that we need to.

我想說，總體目標是以我們需要的任何方式取悅消費者。

And in a lot of ways like skin essentials, I feel great about the product that delivers really great benefits from a skin care perspective.

在很多方面，例如皮膚必需品，我對這款從皮膚護理角度來看確實帶來巨大好處的產品感覺很好。

That's a new feature in the category.

這是該類別中的一個新功能。

And I'm excited that consumers see that worth investing in, right?

我很高興消費者認為值得投資，對吧？

And that's a great thing, But we also are focused on every tier on the good, better, best spectrum, right?

這是一件很棒的事情，但我們也專注於好的、更好的、最好的範圍的每一層，對嗎？

And so we're going to being cascading our innovation throughout all of our tiers to make all of our products better.

因此，我們將在所有層面進行創新，以使我們的所有產品變得更好。

And so the short answer, which may frustrate some of my organization sometimes when they ask me, what do you want, do you want the -- us to trade up or do you want the value?

因此，簡短的回答有時可能會讓我的組織中的一些人感到沮喪，當他們問我，你想要什麼，你想要我們進行交易還是你想要價值時？

And I say yes, right?

我說是的，對嗎？

Because our job is to deliver across all tiers of that good, better, best spectrum.

因為我們的工作是在各個層面提供良好、更好、最好的服務。

Anna Lizzul, Bank of America.

安娜·利祖爾，美國銀行。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

I was wondering if you could talk about the private label businesses.

我想知道您是否可以談論自有品牌業務。

You did exit certain private label businesses which impacted this quarter.

您確實退出了對本季產生影響的某些自有品牌業務。

So if you could give us more detail on where you are now in that process, maybe what we should be expecting moving forward and just how this is overall helping you get to your longer-term gross margin goal of at least 40% by 2030.

因此，如果您能為我們提供更多有關您目前在該流程中所處位置的詳細信息，也許我們應該期待什麼，以及這將如何幫助您實現到 2030 年至少 40% 的長期毛利率目標。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, thanks, Anna.

是的，謝謝，安娜。

Yeah, I think, overall underlying strategy behind the private label shift for us is we're really focused on proprietary science-based innovation in right away when spaces and that's really behind our brands.

是的，我認為，我們自有品牌轉變背後的整體基本策略是，我們真正專注於基於科學的專有創新，而這正是我們品牌背後的原因。

So I really want to focus our capacity and technology investment and the brands to drive further differentiation.

因此，我真的想集中我們的產能和技術投資以及品牌來推動進一步的差異化。

And so we've been moving out of some private label business for the past 18 months.

因此，在過去 18 個月裡，我們一直在退出一些自有品牌業務。

That has enabled us to step up our growth in our branded business, for example, Kleenex, which was up almost 500 basis points in share this quarter or last quarter.

這使我們能夠加快品牌業務的成長，例如，Kleenex，本季或上季的份額增長了近 500 個基點。

Part of that is because we've been able to expand some of the capacity that we've had behind the brand.

部分原因是我們已經能夠擴大品牌背後的一些能力。

So I think that's been an important move.

所以我認為這是一個重要的舉措。

I think the last quarter, in Q3, it's the first time that the exit combined with maybe some weaker private label sales that some customers was material enough for us to call out.

我認為上個季度，即第三季度，這是第一次退出加上一些可能較弱的自有品牌銷售，一些客戶足以讓我們指出這一點。

And I think we noted that in our presentation.

我想我們在演講中註意到了這一點。

I did highlight last quarter that in 2025 we'll cease production for a large club private label diaper business in the US.

我在上個季度確實強調，到 2025 年，我們將停止美國一家大型俱樂部自有品牌尿布業務的生產。

And that's going to create a headwind of about 2% for us next year.

這將為我們明年帶來約 2% 的阻力。

And so as a result, our private label mix will shrink from about 4% in 2023 to about 2% next year.

因此，我們的自有品牌組合將從 2023 年的 4% 左右縮減到明年的 2% 左右。

And I expect that to decline further over time.

我預計隨著時間的推移，這一數字將進一步下降。

Bonnie Herzog, Goldman Sachs

邦妮·赫爾佐格，高盛

Good morning.

早安.

I wanted to ask about your gross margin, which -- it's expanded pretty meaningfully year to date and tracking ahead of pre COVID levels.

我想問一下你們的毛利率，今年迄今為止，毛利率已經大幅增長，並且超過了新冠疫情爆發前的水平。

So just wondering how we should think about the sustainability of these margin levels, especially, given the softer organic sales and probably the possibility that promos need to step up, given pressures on the consumer and to limit down turning.

因此，我想知道我們應該如何考慮這些利潤水準的可持續性，特別是考慮到有機銷售疲軟，並且考慮到消費者面臨的壓力並限制下滑，促銷活動可能需要加強。

I guess, what's the right level of support you see from a benign input cost environment and considering also your ongoing productivity savings.

我想，您從良性投入成本環境中看到的正確支持程度是多少，並考慮到您持續的生產力節省。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, so a few things, Bonnie.

是的，有幾件事，邦妮。

Overall, we're pretty pleased with the trajectory of our gross margins, operating profit margins, and more importantly, gross margin dollars.

整體而言，我們對毛利率、營業利益率，更重要的是毛利率的走勢非常滿意。

I mean, that's our focus at the end of the day because that's what really funds our ability to invest in the business, invest behind the brands, and drive the sustainable innovation that we've been putting in the marketplace which Mike was just talking about.

我的意思是，這才是我們歸根結底的重點，因為這才是我們投資業務、投資品牌、推動可持續創新能力的真正來源，邁克剛才談到了我們一直在市場上投入的可持續創新。

For the year, what we've seen is we're right around an average of 37% gross margin, which is a pretty healthy gain.

今年，我們看到的平均毛利率約為 37%，這是一個相當健康的成長。

And we've been doing consistently for the last eight quarters or so gains on gross margin quarter after quarter, year over year.

在過去八個季度左右的時間裡，我們的毛利率逐季、逐年持續成長。

And we still expect, as we exit the year, to continue to have gains on gross margin on a year-over-year basis.

我們仍然預計，隨著今年的結束，毛利率將繼續同比增長。

A few things have played out in terms of what's driving the gross margin and why we still have strong confidence in our ability to get to our long-term stated goal of at least 40% gross margin or operating margin in the range of 18% to 20% before the end of the decade.

就推動毛利率的因素以及為什麼我們仍然對實現毛利率至少 40% 或營業利潤率在 18% 到 18% 的長期既定目標充滿信心方面，有一些事情已經發生。

And what's playing out is the following.

正在發生的事情如下。

One is, first and foremost, our focus on driving meaningful innovation and focus on making it accretive to overall margins.

首先也是最重要的一點是，我們專注於推動有意義的創新，並致力於提高整體利潤。

Secondly is our shift to really managing our cost basket in a different way than what we did say three, four years ago.

其次，我們轉向以與三、四年前不同的方式真正管理我們的成本籃。

We're much more proactive around risk management strategies, how we look at the cost basket overall.

我們在風險管理策略以及如何看待整體成本籃方面更加積極主動。

And that allows us to have more visibility into what's coming our way so we can react appropriately.

這使我們能夠更清楚地了解即將發生的事情，以便我們能夠做出適當的反應。

The third element and it's been playing out very well this year and it's part of our power and care strategy is our transformation in the supply chain.

第三個要素今年表現得非常好，它是我們電力和關懷策略的一部分，那就是我們對供應鏈的轉型。

We've delivered very strong productivity through the first three quarters of the year.

今年前三個季度我們的生產力非常強勁。

We're, this past quarter, $130 million.

上個季度我們的營收為 1.3 億美元。

And that's just in our gross productivity from manufacturing and supply chain, not including procurement.

這只是我們製造和供應鏈的總生產力，不包括採購。

And we have a very strong pipeline going forward as part of our power and care strategy over the next few years as we really get underway to deliver that $3 billion.

作為未來幾年電力和護理策略的一部分，我們擁有非常強大的管道，因為我們真正開始交付這 30 億美元。

So we see that as a very sustainable over time.

因此，我們認為隨著時間的推移，這是非常永續的。

A key point to take into account is margin progression is not linear.

需要考慮的一個關鍵點是保證金進度不是線性的。

So there will be ups and downs quarter to quarter.

所以每季都會有起伏。

The important thing is what's happening from a year-to-year basis and over time.

重要的是每年和隨著時間的推移所發生的事情。

So overall, very pleased where we stand right now.

總的來說，我們對現在的處境非常滿意。

We, obviously, from a cost basket -- that was part of your question.

顯然，我們來自成本籃——這是你問題的一部分。

Right now, we are still staring at about the same number that we had provided as an outlook at the beginning of the year.

目前，我們仍然關注與年初提供的展望相同的數字。

We've seen a bit of an uptick on costs in Q3, but that's exactly in line with what we had projected.

我們看到第三季的成本上升，但這與我們的預測完全一致。

And we expect Q4 to kind of have the same trajectory that we have seen in Q3.

我們預計第四季的發展軌跡將與第三季相同。

So no change at this stage versus what we're seeing.

因此，與我們所看到的相比，現階段沒有任何變化。

And Bonnie, maybe, you touched on pricing or the promotion environment.

邦妮，也許您談到了定價或促銷環境。

I'll just say that, overall, we're really focused right now on volume and mix-driven organic growth.

我只想說，總的來說，我們現在真正關注的是銷售和混合驅動的有機成長。

And to do that, I think, we're also very focused on driving what we call PNOC or price net of commodity discipline, right?

我認為，要做到這一點，我們也非常注重推動所謂的 PNOC 或商品淨價紀律，對嗎？

And the magic of that is if we had that discipline on PNOC, then the productivity drives the margin expansion on its own.

其神奇之處在於，如果我們對 PNOC 實行這種紀律，生產力就會自行推動利潤率擴張。

But, I would say, overall, pricing to offset cost inflation is receding as we had planned throughout the year.

但是，我想說，總體而言，正如我們全年計劃的那樣，抵銷成本通膨的定價正在下降。

We really want to be, as I had just mentioned earlier, better value at every run of the good, better, best ladder.

正如我之前提到的，我們真的希望在每一次良好、更好、最好的階梯上都獲得更好的價值。

And so our focus on building the brands with innovation, world-class advertising, or storytelling in our vernacular, and then, really, really strong commercial execution.

因此，我們專注於透過創新、世界級的廣告或用我們的語言講故事來建立品牌，然後是非常非常強大的商業執行力。

That's kind of how we want to play it.

這就是我們想要的玩法。

I would say, we do use promotion and but primarily, as a trial driver, with our pioneering innovation is how we think about it.

我想說，我們確實使用促銷，但主要是作為試用驅動程序，我們的開創性創新是我們的想法。

Chris Carey, Wells Fargo securities.

克里斯凱裡，富國銀行證券公司。

Hey, everyone.

嘿，大家。

So I just have a question about the new organizational structure and category growth and then I'm going to sneak one in on just the Q4 operating profit expectation.

因此，我只是對新的組織結構和品類成長有疑問，然後我將簡單介紹一下第四季的營業利潤預期。

So regarding the new organizational structure that you have in place as of October 1, you also have an expectation for category growth to decelerate or, at least, to be the lower end of your long-term range.

因此，就 10 月 1 日起實施的新組織結構而言，您預期品類成長將會放緩，或至少達到長期範圍的下限。

I think I saw that in the prepared remarks.

我想我在準備好的發言中看到了這一點。

And so how do these two things fit together, right?

那麼這兩件事如何結合在一起，對嗎？

So the outlook for Q4 is, I think, similar to Q3, so maybe even a bit below that global category growth rate and yet you have the new organization in place.

因此，我認為第四季度的前景與第三季類似，因此甚至可能略低於全球品類成長率，但新的組織已經就位。

How long before this organization is really driving the outcomes that that you're looking for?

組織需要多長時間才能真正推動您所尋求的結果？

And specifically, with an eye on 2025, where perhaps you'll have a little bit less pricing than you've had this year and where that organizational -- those organizational changes are going to be, an important part of driving organic sales growth, next year.

具體來說，著眼於 2025 年，也許你的定價會比今年低一點，而組織——這些組織變化將成為推動有機銷售成長的重要組成部分，明年。

And I just wonder how you see that kind of top-line trajectory coming together.

我只是想知道您如何看待這種營收軌跡的形成。

And if I could just sneak in on Q4, is the operating profit being muted in Q4?

如果我可以偷偷地進入第四季度，那麼第四季度的營業利潤是否會下降？

Is that really a discretionary decision behind investment?

這真的是投資背後的酌情決定嗎？

Should we be expecting some narrowing of gross margin performance?

我們是否應該預期毛利率會有所縮小？

How would you characterize just the relative differences between Q4 gross margin and just the certain things that you're being a bit more offensive about from an investment standpoint?

您如何描述第四季度毛利率與從投資角度來看您比較反感的某些事情之間的相對差異？

So, thanks so much.

所以，非常感謝。

Okay.

好的。

Chris, you're up earlier.

克里斯，你起得比較早。

There's a lot of questions unpacking there.

那裡有很多問題要解開。

So just, just steer us around if we forget to address something.

所以，如果我們忘記解決某些問題，請引導我們。

But one, I will say I'm really pleased with the progress that our organization is making and implementing, our wire for growth organization.

但我要說的是，我對我們的組織、我們的成長組織所取得和實施的進展感到非常滿意。

And we've been operating that, as we said, at October 1, officially.

正如我們所說，我們已於 10 月 1 日正式開始營運。

The little -- the truth behind that is we've been doing that on an informal basis earlier.

事實上，我們之前一直在非正式的基礎上這樣做。

So I think it's gone off very, very well.

所以我認為一切都進展得非常非常好。

And we're starting to see the benefits of moving in that structure.

我們開始看到遷移到該結構的好處。

I'll hit on the categories.

我會談到類別。

You know, I'd say, hey, the overall categories remain resilient.

你知道，我會說，嘿，總體類別仍然具有彈性。

Underlying category growth, I think, Chris remains very healthy.

我認為，克里斯的潛在類別成長仍然非常健康。

Consumer interest in better-performing products remains healthy, especially in developed markets, but in developing and emerging markets as well.

消費者對性能更好的產品的興趣仍然濃厚，尤其是在已開發市場，但在發展中國家和新興市場也是如此。

We're still very mindful about affordability and our need to strengthen our brand value propositions.

我們仍然非常關注負擔能力以及加強我們的品牌價值主張的需要。

So I'd say the -- overall, the categories are growing in dollars and units.

所以我想說的是——總體而言，這些類別的美元和單位都在成長。

The underlying demand drivers remain healthy and that includes penetration, which I think overall is stable and long term, for us, remains a big opportunity.

潛在的需求驅動因素仍然健康，其中包括滲透率，我認為總體上是穩定的，從長遠來看，對我們來說仍然是一個巨大的機會。

We are seeing, and in some markets, like lower [burs] as you're well aware, like in South Korea and China, but that has tempered slowed down -- the declines in the birth rate have slowed down.

我們看到，在一些市場，如你所知，例如韓國和中國，但這種情況已經放緩——出生率下降的速度已經放緩。

I'd say they actually have troughed.

我想說他們其實已經陷入低谷了。

And so -- and our businesses are still performing well in that kind of environment.

因此，我們的業務在這種環境下仍然表現良好。

We have a lot of markets with categories that still remain at the very early stages of development across developing and emerging markets.

在發展中國家和新興市場中，我們有許多市場的類別仍處於發展的早期階段。

And then of course, this aging population is a strong tailwind for our adult care business across developed markets.

當然，人口老化是我們在已開發市場的成人護理業務的強勁推動力。

And so, I think penetration, I think, it's a good story.

所以，我認為滲透，我認為，這是一個好故事。

Trade up remains a big driver of the category, especially in developed markets, but even including developing and emerging markets.

升級換代仍然是該類別的一大推動力，尤其是在已開發市場，甚至包括發展中和新興市場。

And we're still seeing the demand for premium products continue to grow, both in the US and developed and emerging markets.

我們仍然看到美國、已開發市場和新興市場對優質產品的需求持續成長。

You know, I think frequency is where we see typically some softness right now.

你知道，我認為頻率是我們現在通常看到的一些柔軟的地方。

Typically, in tougher economic environments, consumers in some markets, notably, like in Latin America and Southeast Asia, tend to try to stretch out their money a little bit by using the products for a little bit longer duration.

通常，在較為嚴峻的經濟環境下，某些市場（尤其是拉丁美洲和東南亞）的消費者傾向於嘗試透過延長使用產品的時間來節省開支。

And so we are seeing a little bit of softness in the Latin America and Southeast Asia.

因此，我們看到拉丁美洲和東南亞出現了一些疲軟。

And in addition, I think we mentioned in our presentation, we're seeing some traffic slowdown in our North American professional businesses.

此外，我想我們在演示中提到，我們看到北美專業業務的流量有所放緩。

So as a result, I think our full-year weighted category growth is likely to be closer to 2% versus the 2% to 3% range that we had highlighted previously.

因此，我認為我們的全年加權品類成長可能接近 2%，而我們先前強調的 2% 至 3% 的範圍。

That said, I I'd say we remain on algorithm.

也就是說，我想說我們仍然在演算法上。

You know, of course, our goal is to lead category growth, which we will continue to do, we think, and then, as we're flat to slightly up on share across our businesses globally this year.

當然，你知道，我們的目標是引領品類成長，我們認為，我們將繼續這樣做，然後，因為今年我們在全球業務中的份額持平或略有上升。

And let me unpack a little bit the top-line trajectory and then we can get into the Q4 margins, Chris.

讓我稍微解釋一下營收軌跡，然後我們就可以進入第四季的利潤率，克里斯。

So a few things as we look at the top line trajectory.

當我們觀察頂線軌跡時，有一些事情。

So absent the transitory factors, a key thing is one pricing.

因此，如果沒有暫時性因素，關鍵就是定價。

We are lapping the pricing actions that have been taken across category, all players, and ourselves.

我們正在研究跨品類、所有參與者和我們自己採取的定價行動。

And as you can see from Q1 to Q3, what's happened is and as we had projected at the beginning of the year, the impact of pricing in our overall organic growth has come down as expected.

正如您從第一季到第三季所看到的那樣，正如我們在年初所預測的那樣，定價對我們整體有機成長的影響已按預期下降。

For the quarter, we were only 1% pricing.

本季度，我們的定價僅為 1%。

But if you go back to Q1, that was 4%.

但如果你回到第一季度，那就是 4%。

So it's been coming down and we expect that to pretty much be the case as the year closes.

所以它一直在下降，我們預計隨著年底的到來，情況將基本如此。

Also because pricing and hyperinflationary economies has been coming down.

另一個原因是定價和惡性通貨膨脹經濟一直在下降。

The other bit is that it's also having an incidence on the category growth.

另一點是它也會影響品類的成長。

While [PQ] has remained healthy, etcetera, we're seeing that pricing and you're seeing it in Nielsen data is also coming down and that's having an impact on what you see in overall category growth rates.

雖然 [PQ] 保持健康等，但我們看到定價以及您在尼爾森數據中看到的定價也在下降，這對您在整體類別成長率中看到的情況產生了影響。

So that's something we expect to have.

這就是我們所期望的。

But overall, the key element is, as we said at our Investor Day, this new phase is really about volume mix-led growth.

但總體而言，正如我們在投資者日所說，關鍵要素是，這個新階段實際上是數量混合主導的成長。

And that's what we expect for Q4.

這就是我們對第四季的預期。

If you look at our outlook for Q4, the implication of what we're stating is that we do expect our top line for Q4 to be actually stronger than what we saw in Q3 once we normalize for the transitory factors that we saw.

如果你看看我們對第四季度的展望，我們所說的含義是，一旦我們對所看到的暫時性因素進行正常化，我們確實預計第四季度的營收實際上會強於我們在第三季所看到的。

And again, there could be one-offs.

再說一遍，可能會有一次性的情況。

We can't predict what we don't control.

我們無法預測我們無法控制的事情。

But based on what we know, we'd expect that to happen on the top line.

但根據我們所知，我們預計這會發生在營收上。

In terms of the gross margin, for Q4, a few things.

就第四季的毛利率而言，有幾件事。

One, we are stepping up investments behind our brands and our platforms.

第一，我們正在加大對品牌和平台的投資。

We saw that play out in Q3 as we had signaled in July.

正如我們在 7 月所暗示的那樣，我們在第三季度看到了這種情況的發生。

We stepped up advertising spend by 60 basis points.

我們將廣告支出增加了 60 個基點。

We expect to step up advertising and brand support by at least that amount in Q4.

我們預計第四季將至少增加同樣數量的廣告和品牌支援。

So the combination of the two should be north of 7%.

所以兩者的結合應該在 7% 以上。

So that's one element to be taken into account.

所以這是需要考慮的因素。

Secondly, there are some discretionary costs that we expect to hit our P&L in Q4.

其次，我們預期第四季會有一些可自由支配的成本影響我們的損益。

And last but not least is we had a little -- I mean, as we had indicated back in January, out of our bucket of input cost inflation including currency because of the timing of some of the pricing actions in hyperinflationary economies last year and how these costs would flow in, we would be more back half loaded.

最後但並非最不重要的是，我們有一點——我的意思是，正如我們在一月份所指出的那樣，我們的投入成本通膨（包括貨幣）超出了我們的投入成本通膨範圍，因為去年惡性通膨經濟體的一些定價行動的時機以及如何這些成本會流入，我們會更背負一半的負荷。

That played out in Q3.

這在第三季就得到了體現。

That will play out in Q4.

這將在第四季度發揮作用。

But overall, the key thing is we are making year-on-year, strong progress on margins and we expect to continue to do that over time.

但總的來說，關鍵是我們在利潤率方面取得了逐年強勁的進步，我們預計隨著時間的推移將繼續這樣做。

What did we miss, Chris?

我們錯過了什麼，克里斯？

That was -- I think that was as comprehensive as I could have hoped for.

我認為這正如我所希望的那樣全面。

So thank you.

所以謝謝你。

Thank you for entertaining all that.

感謝您招待這一切。

Good luck.

祝你好運。

Kevin Grundy, BNP Paribas.

凱文·格倫迪，法國巴黎銀行。

Hey, morning, guys.

嘿，早上好，夥計們。

Morning, Mike.

早上好，麥克。

Morning, Nelson.

早安，納爾遜。

Question for you on -- as a follow up on Chris' question, a bit of a different angle though.

作為克里斯問題的後續問題，但角度有點不同。

Just as it pertains to visibility on results, sort of the myth, Mike, all this organizational change that you been pushing through in what is still a pretty dynamic environment.

正如它涉及結果的可見性一樣，麥克，您在仍然充滿活力的環境中推動的所有這些組織變革都是神話。

So I asked that in the context, you know, the quarter fell a bit short of your own internal expectations in The Street.

所以我問，在這個背景下，你知道，這個季度有點低於你在華爾街的內部預期。

Some of these factors evolve throughout the quarter.

其中一些因素在整個季度都會發生變化。

There's something like the inventory bill was known.

諸如庫存帳單之類的事情是已知的。

When you're speaking with The Street as recently as like early September, it didn't sound -- some of these factors were really being amplified, such that The Street was braced for the magnitude of it.

當你最近（例如九月初）與《華爾街日報》交談時，聽起來並沒有——其中一些因素確實被放大了，因此《華爾街日報》已經做好了應對其嚴重性的準備。

So I can appreciate the volatility of the environment.

所以我能體會環境的波動性。

Nelson, your point on what the organization has done around productivity and visibility there further down the P&L, certainly, well taken.

尼爾森，您關於組織在損益表的生產力和可見性方面所做的工作的觀點當然得到了很好的理解。

But my question for both of you really kind of speaks to the visibility you have as you're contending with all this organizational change and why investors should not be concerned that this is really kind of a setback quarter in terms of the visibility that you're conveying and the guidance to The Street.

但我對你們倆提出的問題確實涉及到你們在應對所有這些組織變革時所擁有的可見性，以及為什麼投資者不應該擔心這確實是你們可見性方面的一個挫折。

So thanks for all that.

謝謝你所做的一切。

Yeah.

是的。

I think I'll start, Kevin, with, one, I'm really, really pleased with the strong execution globally that we have from the team around the world.

凱文，我想我首先要說的是，我對我們來自世界各地的團隊在全球範圍內的強大執行力感到非常非常滿意。

Overall, I'd say, I'm really pleased that we are managing the controllables. very, very well.

總的來說，我想說，我真的很高興我們能夠管理可控因素。非常非常好。

I, I think what happened in the quarter, I would say, certainly, I think you understand on the retail inventory, it's very certainly to be a transitory impact.

我，我認為本季發生的事情，我會說，當然，我認為你了解零售庫存，這肯定是暫時的影響。

I do think part of it is we react to evolving market conditions.

我確實認為部分原因是我們對不斷變化的市場條件做出的反應。

And so we start to see a little softness in Southeast Asia and in Latin America and as we noted in our professional business.

因此，正如我們在專業業務中指出的那樣，我們開始看到東南亞和拉丁美洲出現了一些疲軟。

I think, for us, the opportunities, we have good visibility on it.

我認為，對於我們來說，機會，我們對此有很好的了解。

I think the organizational change has gone very, very well.

我認為組織變革進展得非常非常順利。

We've been operating, I would say in a, in our words, internally, a soft reorg condition for the past six months.

我想說，在過去的六個月裡，我們一直在內部進行軟重組。

And so I think we have pretty good visibility and operationally.

所以我認為我們有很好的可見性和可操作性。

And importantly, management in the markets that are running the businesses has not changed significantly.

重要的是，經營這些業務的市場的管理層沒有重大變化。

So I think that that should give us -- our investors comfort there.

所以我認為這應該讓我們——我們的投資者感到安心。

I think what we are calling out is though there is some softness in some markets that we're all aware of.

我認為我們要指出的是，儘管我們都知道某些市場存在一些疲軟的情況。

Some of that is certainly category conditions, are the things that we could be doing better from a product perspective or a marketing perspective, sure.

其中一些肯定是類別條件，當然，從產品角度或行銷角度來看，我們可以做得更好。

And so I think the thing I like about our rewiring for growth is it's creating more visibility into the big markets that make the biggest impact.

因此，我認為我喜歡我們為成長重新佈局的一點是，它可以提高人們對影響最大的大市場的可見度。

And that's international for personal care for us, North America, and some of our big consumer tissue markets.

對於我們、北美以及我們的一些大型消費紙巾市場來說，這對於個人護理來說是國際性的。

And so we're able, I would say, to diagnose what's going on and respond much quicker.

所以我想說，我們能夠診斷正在發生的事情並更快地做出反應。

And some of the areas that we have opportunity to work on harder are Kotex in China.

我們有機會更努力的一些領域是高潔絲在中國。

Even though it was up slightly on share in the quarter, it softened a little bit.

儘管該季度的份額略有上升，但略有放緩。

Our fem-care business in Brazil, similarly.

我們在巴西的女性護理業務也是如此。

That tissue in South Korea was a little soft in the quarter.

本季韓國的紙巾有點軟。

One of the things that -- the reasons why we saw a little bit of a slowdown in in Korea in the quarter was we have been growing multiple share points that offset some of the category conditions.

我們看到韓國本季略有放緩的原因之一是我們一直在增加多個份額點，抵消了一些類別條件。

And now that we're only growing a little bit of share or let's say 100 basis points of share rather than 300, that slowed down the category growth, hits home a little bit harder.

現在我們的份額只增長了一點點，或者說份額增加了 100 個基點而不是 300 個基點，這減緩了品類增長，對我們的打擊更大一些。

So I think we have some opportunity there.

所以我認為我們在那裡有一些機會。

And then lastly, Huggies, in parts of Latin America, I think we do have some product improvement opportunities, which we're all over.

最後，好奇，在拉丁美洲的部分地區，我認為我們確實有一些產品改進的機會，但我們已經結束了。

And so again, I feel good about the visibility and I feel good about where we are in the reorganization.

再說一遍，我對可見性感到滿意，對我們重組的進展感到滿意。

But Nelson, I don't know if you wanted to add

但是尼爾森，我不知道你是否想補充

--

--

So just to add, Kevin, a few things, one, we will remain and we've been instilling a lot of discipline in the business around our approach to volume consumption and how we manage on that end.

因此，凱文，我要補充幾件事，第一，我們將留下來，我們一直在圍繞我們的銷售方法以及我們如何管理這一目標的方式向業務灌輸很多紀律。

So we will remain steadfast on the role that promotions play.

因此，我們將堅定不移地發揮促銷作用。

And we're not going to be chasing volume.

我們不會追逐數量。

We're going to be chasing consumption and that's what we're doing.

我們將追逐消費，這就是我們正在做的事情。

We're pleased with the fact that in North America, consumption remains strong.

我們對北美的消費依然強勁感到高興。

Again, there's a disconnect between shipments and consumption.

同樣，出貨量和消費量之間存在脫節。

And there are elements there that we can't predict on a month-to-month basis because they just happen.

其中有些因素我們無法逐月預測，因為它們只是發生。

Our focus and our discipline has also remained around how we manage bottom line overall profitability of the business to be able to generate the fuel to invest back in the business.

我們的重點和紀律仍然圍繞著如何管理企業的整體獲利能力，以便能夠產生燃料來投資回企業。

Our performance has been strong on that end.

我們在這方面的表現非常強勁。

And again, we're getting better by the day as we execute.

再說一遍，我們的執行力一天比一天好。

Our teams have been going through a lot of change over the next -- over the last few months and we're very proud of what they've accomplished and how they're looking at what we're going to be doing over the next few years as we carry out our power and care transformation.

在過去的幾個月裡，我們的團隊在接下來的幾個月裡經歷了很多變化，我們對他們所取得的成就以及他們如何看待我們接下來要做的事情感到非常自豪我們進行權力和護理轉型的幾年時間。

So overall, we'll manage through the next few quarters and there'll be market dynamics.

因此，總體而言，我們將在接下來的幾個季度中進行管理，並且市場將會出現動態。

But, but ultimately, our objective is to lead category growth in a profitable and sustainable manner and that's what we're setting the organization to do.

但是，但最終，我們的目標是以盈利和可持續的方式引領品類成長，這就是我們設定組織要做的事情。

Maybe, one more question.

也許，還有一個問題。

Okay.

好的。

Javier Escalante, Evercore ISI.

哈維爾·埃斯卡蘭特，Evercore ISI。

Hello, guys.

哈嘍，夥計們。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

I'm going to revisit the some of the items cost in a way that I think that it may be simpler because there is a lot of moving pieces, so [stay] like external issues versus internal factors.

我將以一種我認為可能更簡單的方式重新審視某些項目的成本，因為有很多變化的部分，所以[保持]像外部問題與內部因素一樣。

So the external one, the bigger one is this inventory destocking.

所以外部的，更大的一個就是這次去庫存。

It's not just you.

不只是你。

We have been talking about this with other -- with some of your peers.

我們一直在與其他人——與你們的一些同行——討論這個問題。

If you can talk about what's driving it?

您能談談是什麼推動了它嗎？

Is it just mechanics of COVID?

這只是新冠病毒的機制嗎？

Is it shift to e-commerce that they are using the stores differently?

他們是否以不同的方式使用商店而轉向電子商務？

And if you can basically say -- I think that you heard -- I heard that it was 80 basis points on a year-to-date basis.

如果你基本上可以說——我想你聽說過——我聽說年初至今是 80 個基點。

If you can just simply tell us what was the impact on Q3.

您能否簡單地告訴我們對第三季的影響是什麼？

So that's the externality.

這就是外部性。

I'll wait but I would like to go more into the internal piece, which to me is more interesting.

我會等待，但我想更多地了解內部部分，這對我來說更有趣。

So if you can address that and then give me a minute for the internal piece question.

所以，如果你能解決這個問題，然後給我一點時間來回答內部問題。

So Javier, let me reconcile the numbers for you, just to give the sense of what's that 80 basis point on Q3?

那麼哈維爾，讓我為您核對一下這些數字，只是為了讓您了解第三季的 80 個基點是多少？

And you can get to that and see.

你可以去看看。

But as you state, I mean, there are externalities, inventory movements.

但正如你所說，我的意思是，存在外部性、庫存變動。

We had a bit last year, especially particularly in Q3 as our supply chain normalized in the US.

去年我們有一點，特別是在第三季度，因為我們的供應鏈在美國正常化了。

And then we had a bit of more de-stock in Q3 following what had happened in Q1 and Q2 of this year.

繼今年第一季和第二季發生的情況之後，我們在第三季進一步減少了庫存。

We also had the hurricane impact at the very end of the quarter, the last three, four days of shipments.

我們在季度末、出貨的最後三、四天也受到了颶風的影響。

And then the other element was the private label shipments.

另一個因素是自有品牌的出貨量。

I mean, we exited some contracts and then on top of that, we had software demand and other private label that materialized at the end of September.

我的意思是，我們退出了一些合同，最重要的是，我們在 9 月底實現了軟體需求和其他自有品牌。

Those three elements that we've called -- that I've referred to as transitory factors added to slightly north of 1 point of growth in the quarter.

我們所說的這三個因素——我稱之為暫時性因素，使本季的成長略高於 1 個百分點。

So roughly 1.3 points, if you want me to round it to be exact.

如果你想讓我精確地四捨五入的話，大約是 1.3 分。

That's what that drove for the enterprise overall in growth.

這就是推動企業整體成長的動力。

That's the 80 bps, give or take, that Mike referred to for the year, if you add all that.

如果把所有這些加起來的話，這就是麥克提到的今年的 80 個基點。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

So basically the real question is the following, right?

所以基本上真正的問題如下，對吧？

So you -- basically, you are doing a lot.

所以你——基本上，你做了很多事情。

This is a highly decentralized company, but at the same time, the categories are roughly the same.

這是一家高度去中心化的公司，但同時品類也大致相同。

So basically, you are moving away from private label.

所以基本上，你正在遠離自有品牌。

So if you can tell us how you are in that process again?

那麼您能告訴我們您在這個過程中的情況如何嗎？

So what was your -- at the beginning of the year, your -- what percentage of global sales were in private label?

那麼，今年年初時，自有品牌在全球銷售額中所佔的比例是多少？

Where they are now?

他們現在在哪裡？

What is the plan for next year?

明年的計畫是什麼？

Because there is a -- the impending exit of a private label business that is [two point] coming into 2025.

因為自有品牌業務即將退出，[兩點]進入 2025 年。

So if you can explain that as an item alone.

因此，如果您可以將其單獨解釋為一個項目。

So then, if you -- there is the implementation of 4S HANA.

那麼，如果您—有 4S HANA 的實施。

To what extent that had an impact or give you more visibility so you can guide better going into next year?

這在多大程度上產生了影響或為您帶來了更多的知名度，以便您可以更好地指導明年的工作？

And there is another item that came out -- a news item in terms of you guys being evaluating strategic options for the international tissue and professional businesses, which, in my math, is about 7% of the profit.

還有另一則新聞報道，你們正在評估國際衛生紙和專業企業的策略選擇，根據我的計算，這大約佔利潤的 7%。

So you seem to be doing a lot very at the same time.

所以你似乎同時做了很多事。

So tell us how the organization is responding?

那麼請告訴我們該組織是如何應對的呢？

Do you have the system to manage this so you can control the volatility, going forward?

您是否擁有管理此問題的系統，以便您可以控制未來的波動性？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, I think, I'll start maybe.

是的，我想，也許我會開始。

And as I said, I think, we've been very pleased with the organization's response to the reorganization.

正如我所說，我認為我們對該組織對重組的反應非常滿意。

And, Javier, as I mentioned, we start, -- we put the switch on the new operating model or a new operating structure, October 1.

而且，哈維爾，正如我所提到的，我們從 10 月 1 日開始，開啟新的營運模式或新的營運結構。

But the reality is we have been running in a soft mode for several months leading up to it.

但現實情況是，我們已經在軟模式下運行了幾個月。

And the reality is what's happening in each of the markets, we haven't changed management significantly in any of the local markets that deliver the P&L.

現實是每個市場正在發生的事情，我們沒有在任何提供損益的本地市場中顯著改變管理階層。

And so our expectation would there be little disruption.

因此，我們預期不會出現什麼幹擾。

And then in my mind, there hasn't been very much disruption at all.

然後在我看來，根本沒有太大的干擾。

So again, I think we feel very good about how the organization is proceeding and our visibility into -- looking at the business remains very, very good.

再說一次，我認為我們對組織的進展感覺非常好，而且我們對業務的可見度仍然非常非常好。

I say on the private label, again, I think I mentioned earlier, it's -- this year, it will be about 4% of our overall sales of the company.

我再說一遍，關於自有品牌，我想我之前提到過，今年，它將占我們公司總銷售額的 4% 左右。

Next year, after the exit, it will be -- we will be about 2% private label.

明年，退出後，我們將擁有約 2% 的自有品牌。

And then our plans would be probably work our way down from there.

然後我們的計劃可能會從那裡開始實施。

So that's, that's that part.

這就是那部分。

I forgot what the -- what else did you want?

我忘了什麼──你還想要什麼？

S/4 HANA (technical difficulty)

S/4 HANA（技術難度）

So you had a question on S/F, Javier?

哈維爾，你對 S/F 有疑問嗎？

Go ahead.

前進。

Actually, the question is more about whether 4S HANA will give you the capacity to basically better foresee this volatility.

實際上，問題更多的是 4S HANA 是否能讓您有能力從根本上更好地預見這種波動。

Because there is this news item about you guys looking for strategic options for divest or -- I don't know what that is -- but international tissue and pro-business, which is about 7% of profit.

因為有這樣的新聞報導說你們正在尋找撤資的策略選擇，或者——我不知道那是什麼——但國際組織和親商業，這大約是利潤的 7%。

I'll first go, Javier.

我先走了，哈維爾。

Since you opened the door, my DTS -- my digital technology service organization will be really miffed in me if I don't complement them.

自從你打開門以來，如果我不補充它們，我的 DTS（我的數位技術服務組織）將會非常生氣。

But we did flip the switch on our North American S/4 HANA implementation at the end of July.

但我們確實在 7 月底開啟了北美 S/4 HANA 實施的開關。

Actually, the day -- the weekend before the earnings call last quarter.

事實上，那天是上個季度財報電話會議前的周末。

And contrary to what most experiences are, nobody noticed other than it was easier to run.

與大多數經驗相反，沒有人注意到除了它更容易運行之外。

And so I think our organization has done a great job.

所以我認為我們的組織做得很好。

I think, actually, the vendor who provides the software wants to meet with us to see how did you -- how did we pull that off without any slippage.

我認為，實際上，提供該軟體的供應商希望與我們會面，看看您是如何做到的——我們是如何在沒有任何延誤的情況下實現這一目標的。

So I think we've done a very good job there.

所以我認為我們在這方面做得非常好。

And so, from that perspective, I think, again, the organization, I think, continues to perform extremely, extremely well.

因此，從這個角度來看，我認為該組織繼續表現得非常非常好。

With regards to your questions on international family care and professional, I'd say, we're taking important steps to make that a more robust and predictable contributor to growth and returns for us.

關於您關於國際家庭護理和專業的問題，我想說，我們正在採取重要步驟，使其成為我們成長和回報的更強大和可預測的貢獻者。

And for me, obviously, as a matter of practice, I'm not going to comment on news articles or rumors.

對我來說，顯然，作為一種慣例，我不會對新聞文章或謠言發表評論。

And I'll let you know when I think there's something that you need to know.

當我認為有什麼事情你需要知道時，我會告訴你。

But we like the categories that we're in.

但我們喜歡我們所處的類別。

We believe we can add a lot more value to our categories, our consumers, and our customers.

我們相信我們可以為我們的品類、我們的消費者和我們的客戶增加更多價值。

That said, Javier, I think you'll also recognize that, in places where we don't feel like we have a right to win in the long term, we'll look to optimize our participation in those assets.

也就是說，哈維爾，我想你也會意識到，在我們認為自己沒有權利長期獲勝的地方，我們將尋求優化我們對這些資產的參與。

And the example that, I think, you and I have discussed is in Brazil where we saw some structural factors that made it difficult for us to compete on the consumer tissue side of the business due to some -- I would say, some government incentives that we couldn't access, that made the category more difficult to compete in.

我想，你和我討論過的例子是在巴西，在那裡我們看到了一些結構性因素，由於一些政府激勵措施，使我們很難在消費紙巾業務方面進行競爭。更難以競爭。

We made a different decision that I think was a very good one for the company.

我們做出了一個不同的決定，我認為這對公司來說是一個非常好的決定。

And so I think we'll continue to make those tough decisions.

所以我認為我們將繼續做出這些艱難的決定。

But again, I think I'll -- we'll let you know if there's anything to think about regarding the tissue business.

但我想再說一次，我們會讓您知道關於紙巾業務是否有任何需要考慮的事情。

Well, thanks everybody for joining us today.

好的，謝謝大家今天加入我們。

And for anybody who has follow-up questions, Investor Relations will be around to take your calls.

對於任何有後續問題的人，投資者關係部將隨時接聽您的電話。

So, thanks very much and have a great day.

所以，非常感謝，祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time.

今天的會議到此結束，此時您可以掛斷電話了。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。