金百利克拉克 (KMB) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Kimberly-Clark First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Chris Jakubik. Sir, the floor is yours.

大家早安，歡迎參加金佰利 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）現在我很高興將發言權交給主持人 Chris Jakubik。先生，地板是你的了。

Thank you. And hello, everyone. This is Chris Jakubik, Head of Investor Relations at Kimberly-Clark, and welcome to our Q&A session for our first quarter 2024 business update. During our remarks today, we will make some forward-looking statements that are based on how we see things today. Actual results may differ due to risks and uncertainties, and these are discussed in our earnings release and our filings with the SEC. We will also discuss some non-GAAP financial measures today, and these non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered a replacement for and should be read together with GAAP results. And you can find the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within our earnings release and the supplemental materials posted at investor.kimberly-clark.com. .

謝謝。大家好。我是金佰利投資者關係主管 Chris Jakubik，歡迎參加我們的 2024 年第一季業務更新問答環節。在今天的演講中，我們將根據我們今天的看法做出一些前瞻性聲明。由於風險和不確定性，實際結果可能有所不同，這些內容在我們的收益報告和向 SEC 提交的文件中進行了討論。今天我們還將討論一些非 GAAP 財務指標，這些非 GAAP 財務指標不應被視為替代 GAAP 業績，而應與 GAAP 業績一起閱讀。您可以在我們的收益報告和投資者.kimberly-clark.com 上發布的補充資料中找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 的調整表。 。

Before we begin, I'm going to hand it to our Chairman and CEO, Mike Hsu, for a few quick opening comments.

在開始之前，我將請我們的董事長兼執行長 Mike Hsu 進行一些簡短的開場評論。

Okay. Thank you, Chris. Hey, before we get into the Q&A, I would like to start by saying thank you to all my colleagues at Kimberly-Clark, who worked really diligently over the past few years to build our strong foundation and to deliver these Q1 results that provide a very good start to our next chapter of growth. Our strategy to elevate our categories with breakthrough innovation and expand our markets is working. We are effectively navigating the ever-changing external dynamics of today's new normal while driving our consumer-centric culture.

好的。謝謝你，克里斯。嘿，在我們進入問答環節之前，我首先要向金佰利的所有同事表示感謝，他們在過去幾年中非常努力地工作，為我們奠定了堅實的基礎，並交付了第一季度的業績，這些業績為我們提供了良好的基礎。我們透過突破性創新提升品類並擴大市場的策略正在發揮作用。我們正在有效地應對當今新常態不斷變化的外部動態，同時推動我們以消費者為中心的文化。

We are making the company better, stronger and faster. I'm very, very proud of our progress to date, and I'm confident that we're going to continue to leverage our core strengths to achieve our potential. We are on an exciting path and are well positioned to deliver durable growth and sustainable shareholder returns.

我們正在把公司做得更好、更強、更快。我對我們迄今為止所取得的進步感到非常非常自豪，我相信我們將繼續利用我們的核心優勢來發揮我們的潛力。我們正走在一條令人興奮的道路上，並有能力實現持久成長和可持續的股東回報。

So with that, I'd like to open it up for your questions.

因此，我想打開它來回答你們的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Your first question is coming from Bonnie Herzog from Goldman Sachs.

你的第一個問題來自高盛的邦妮·赫爾佐格。

Hope you're all well. First, I have a quick question on your guidance. You reported a better-than-expected Q1. So curious to hear why you didn't pass through the full Q1 beat? And then also hoping for a little more color on the better-than-expected volume growth you saw in the quarter. What were the key drivers behind this? And ultimately, how sustainable is this moving forward? And curious, was there any pull forward, for instance? Or should we expect to see continued volume improvements as the year progresses?

希望你一切都好。首先，我想問一個關於您的指導的簡單問題。您報告的第一季業績優於預期。很想知道為什麼你沒有通過完整的 Q1 節拍？然後也希望本季看到的好於預期的銷售成長能有更多的色彩。這背後的關鍵驅動因素是什麼？最終，這種進展的可持續性如何？很好奇，例如，是否有任何推動力？或者我們應該期望隨著時間的推移看到銷量持續成長？

Yes, Bonnie, maybe I'll start and Nelson will talk about what we decided to pass through and our logic for that. But really, I'm encouraged with a good start I think our organization is running very, very well and what we would call internally our new normal, right? And I think this is like the first year in a few that we've had kind of a stable business despite a lot of the geopolitical things that are going on. So the underlying strength in the quarter was predicated on a couple of good fundamental factors: one, better volume, which you observed, and there's no pull forward. In fact, it was the opposite. We had an inventory -- retail inventory reduction in the quarter. But kind of -- I think the volume -- the inherent in the consumption kind of overshot -- overcompensated for that.

是的，邦妮，也許我會開始，尼爾森會談論我們決定通過的內容以及我們的邏輯。但實際上，我對一個良好的開端感到鼓舞，我認為我們的組織運作得非常非常好，我們在內部稱之為新常態，對嗎？我認為，儘管發生了許多地緣政治問題，但今年是我們業務穩定的第一年。因此，本季的潛在實力取決於幾個良好的基本面因素：一是成交量增加，正如您所觀察到的，並且沒有任何推動力。事實上，事實恰恰相反。我們的庫存—本季零售庫存減少了。但我認為，消費量本身就有點過頭了，對此補償過度了。

And so I think -- I think that was probably when also the market shares are moving kind of in the right direction. So I think we feel very good about the underlying volume momentum in the business. And then on top of that, then with a stable input cost environment, the productivity that was strong in the quarter tends to drop a little bit stronger through the bottom line. And so that's the underlying kind of driver of our strong Q1. And we feel really great about it. The team has done a great job operating -- there's still a couple of wars going on in the world, as you're well aware, Argentina has been very volatile, and our teams are doing a great job there. So we feel like we're really running well in a new normal environment. Nelson?

所以我認為——我認為這可能是市場份額朝著正確方向發展的時候。因此，我認為我們對該業務的潛在銷售勢頭感到非常滿意。最重要的是，在穩定的投入成本環境下，本季強勁的生產力往往會在淨利潤方面略有下降。這就是我們強勁的第一季的潛在驅動力。我們對此感覺非常好。團隊在營運方面做得非常出色——正如您所知，世界上仍然有幾場戰爭正在發生，阿根廷一直非常不穩定，而我們的團隊在那裡做得很好。所以我們覺得我們在新常態環境中運作得很好。納爾遜？

Yes. And just to add a few details on what happened in Q1 by -- so first, obviously, very pleased with the start of the year. And Q1 was particularly strong as we saw a significant benefit in China from our Chinese New Year execution. And particularly in March, I mean, the trends in the business continued. China grew volumes double digits in the quarter. And in North America, in particular, as Mike said, while the trade destock happened as we had projected back in January. And just for perspective, total company, that was around 80 basis points of growth. That still -- we came in March and had a much better consumption in the month in March, which flowed through in the quarter. So that was the other bit on volume as we thought about what happened and reconciled the numbers for the quarter. Having said that, as we look at what's going to happen in the balance of the year, a couple of things.

是的。我想補充第一季度發生的一些細節——首先，顯然，我對今年的年初感到非常滿意。第一季的表現尤其強勁，因為我們看到中國農曆新年的執行帶來了顯著的效益。我的意思是，特別是在三月份，業務趨勢仍在繼續。中國本季銷量成長兩位數。尤其是在北美，正如麥克所說，儘管貿易去庫存正如我們在一月份所預期的那樣發生了。僅從角度來看，整個公司的成長約為 80 個基點。儘管如此，我們是在三月到來的，三月的消費情況要好得多，這在本季中已經體現出來了。這是我們思考發生的事情並核對本季數據時的另一部分內容。話雖如此，當我們看看今年剩下的時間會發生什麼時，有幾件事。

One, as Mike said, we're cautiously optimistic, few things that we're all aware of is we still have geopolitical challenges underway. And we have begun to see some of our commodities begin to uptick. Just for perspective, in the first quarter, we've seen how pulp and the fiber complex has increased in the single digits in the first quarter sequentially versus Q4. For perspective, in the full year, we now expect commodities to be -- the net input cost, the total basket to be around $250 million inflationary. So we are taking that into account. That's within the range that we have provided back in January, but it's still something that we're watching.

第一，正如麥克所說，我們持謹慎樂觀的態度，我們都知道我們仍然面臨地緣政治挑戰。我們已經開始看到我們的一些商品開始上漲。僅出於透視目的，在第一季度，我們看到紙漿和纖維複合體在第一季與第四季相比如何以個位數成長。從長遠來看，我們現在預計全年大宗商品的淨投入成本，總籃子通膨率約為 2.5 億美元。所以我們正在考慮這一點。這在我們一月份提供的範圍內，但我們仍在觀察。

A couple of other things to keep in mind is that as we head into the back half of the year, we expect to see about an $0.08 headwind from the personal protective equipment divestiture in profit. That's built into our outlook, but that is something that we -- that is new news versus the outlook we provided back in January. And the other bit to keep in mind is we will further step up investments as the year progresses. On a year-over-year basis, our advertising spend increased 50 basis points. That was largely in line with what we had in Q4. And what we said at the beginning of the year is that as our innovation pipeline builds up, and that's starting in Q2, we will further step up investments as the year progresses, and we expect it to be around another 50 basis points for the balance of the year.

其他需要記住的事情是，當我們進入今年下半年時，我們預計個人防護裝備剝離的利潤將出現約 0.08 美元的阻力。這是我們的展望的一部分，但與我們一月份提供的展望相比，這是新消息。另一件需要記住的事情是，隨著時間的推移，我們將進一步增加投資。與去年同期相比，我們的廣告支出增加了 50 個基點。這與我們第四季的情況基本一致。我們在今年年初說過，隨著我們的創新管道的建立，從第二季度開始，我們將隨著今年的進展進一步加大投資，我們預計餘額將再增加 50 個基點左右今年的。

Your next question is coming from Anna Lizzul from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Anna Lizzul。

I was wondering if you can comment on market share. A competitor mentioned a misstep on their part with a lack of innovation at the lower end of the pricing ladder in toilet paper, which caused some pressure there. So I was wondering if that helped you to pick up share. And if you can comment on how you're progressing in terms of market share. Also on a weighted category basis, that would be helpful. And then as a follow-up, volumes were clearly better than expected despite some retail inventory reductions in the quarter that you had anticipated for Q1. So I was just wondering to what extent this ended up impacting the quarter? And how should we be thinking about it for the full year?

我想知道您是否可以評論一下市場份額。一位競爭對手提到，他們在衛生紙價格階梯的低端缺乏創新，造成了一些壓力。所以我想知道這是否有助於您獲得份額。您能否評論一下您在市場佔有率方面的進展。同樣在加權類別的基礎上，這也會很有幫助。接下來，儘管您預期第一季零售庫存有所減少，但銷售量明顯優於預期。所以我只是想知道這最終對本季產生了多大影響？我們該如何思考全年的情況？

Okay. Yes. Ana, thanks for the question. Great question. Market share I'm very encouraged. I think we've made very, very solid progress on overall market share. I expect further improvement in the year -- as the year progresses. Overall, in the quarter, we were up and even in just under 60% of our market category combinations. Although I would say also flat on a weighted basis, and we look at share in 2 ways on both metrics.

好的。是的。安娜，謝謝你的提問。很好的問題。市佔率讓我深受鼓舞。我認為我們在整體市場份額方面取得了非常非常紮實的進步。隨著時間的推移，我預計今年會取得進一步的進展。總體而言，本季我們的市場類別組合的佔比甚至略低於 60%。儘管我想說在加權基礎上也持平，但我們在這兩個指標上以兩種方式看待份額。

Importantly, I'd say North America improving. North America was up or even in 6 of 8 categories. We were soft in 2023, as you may recall, a lot of that was predicated on severe supply constraints that we had last year. And so I think this was like maybe the second quarter that we've had in a row of unconstrained supply. And I think that kind of performance reflects our ability to ship product and kind of restore promotion.

重要的是，我想說北美正在進步。北美地區在 8 個類別中的 6 個類別中排名上升或持平。您可能還記得，我們​​在 2023 年表現疲軟，這在很大程度上是基於去年嚴重的供應限制。所以我認為這可能就像我們在第二季連續供應不受限制的情況一樣。我認為這種表現反映了我們運送產品和恢復促銷的能力。

Just for reference, Kleenex in the quarter was up 400 basis points on share -- or more than 400 basis points on share. What drove it? Well, we did have new social media campaign around cold flu and allergy season, which I think has been very, very good. But the other part is we restored merchandising, which we had been off from for several months. And so -- so again, I think our merchandising, we still -- we're probably still under-indexed versus the overall category. But we're just kind of returning to kind of normalized merchandising behavior.

僅供參考，本季 Kleenex 股價上漲了 400 個基點，即股價上漲了 400 多個基點。是什麼推動了它？嗯，我們確實圍繞著感冒流感和過敏季節開展了新的社交媒體活動，我認為這非常非常好。但另一部分是我們恢復了已經中斷幾個月的商品銷售。因此，我再次認為，與整個類別相比，我們的商品銷售可能仍然指數不足。但我們只是在回歸正常的銷售行為。

So we feel good about our performance overall. And again, market share in other markets like in China, we were up a couple -- a couple of hundred basis points on Huggies diapers had a very, very strong Chinese New Year execution. So volumes were up double digit against the category that was still down about 10% in China. So I think overall, we're feeling very optimistic about the performance of the business and feel good about the volume delivery of the business.

所以我們對我們的整體表現感覺良好。再說一次，在中國等其他市場的市佔率上，我們上升了幾個——好奇紙尿褲的市佔率上升了幾百個基點，中國新年的執行力非常非常強勁。因此，與在中國仍下降約 10% 的類別相比，銷量增長了兩位數。因此，我認為總體而言，我們對業務的業績感到非常樂觀，並對業務的交付量感到滿意。

And just to build on Mike's point and to your question on what to expect on volumes for the balance of the year. But as we said in January, I mean, 2024 should mainly reflect the pacing of our innovation pipeline and in-market programming. We still have the innovation and a lot of the programming coming into place as we go into Q2 and the second half of the year. Hence, why, from an overall perspective and volume plans, we don't see any changes versus what we had planned back in January and we're taking into account the volume over delivery that we had in Q1.

只是以麥克的觀點和你關於今年餘下時間的銷售預期的問題為基礎。但正如我們在一月份所說的，我的意思是，2024 年應該主要反映我們的創新管道和市場規劃的節奏。當我們進入第二季和下半年時，我們仍然有創新和許多計劃到位。因此，為什麼從整體角度和銷售計劃來看，我們沒有看到與一月份的計劃相比有任何變化，並且我們正在考慮第一季的交付量。

Your next question is coming from Lauren Lieberman from Barclays.

你們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的勞倫‧利伯曼。

So first thing I wanted to ask about was the productivity in the release or in the prepared remarks, you called out $120 million realized this quarter. And I was just curious how to think about that in the context of the $3 billion in productivity and also $200 million of SG&A savings that you articulated at the Investor Day. So first that's just my first question.

因此，我想問的第一件事是發布或準備好的評論中的生產力，您稱本季度實現了 1.2 億美元。我只是很好奇，在投資者日所闡述的 30 億美元生產力提升以及 2 億美元 SG&A 節省的背景下，如何思考這一點。首先，這只是我的第一個問題。

Nelson will comment. I will say a good start and we're tracking well.

尼爾森將發表評論。我想說的是一個好的開端，我們進展順利。

Yes. And then just to give a little bit of color on the $3 billion and the $200 million, Lauren. So overall, first, it's based on the integrated margin management process that we unveiled in our Investor Day at the end of March. This has really given us a new enterprise-wide visibility, discipline, accountability, end-to-end across the whole value chain. And really, it's about a focus on driving lower costs at a total deliver cost, which is a very different approach as what we had in the past, and we've been working on it for the last year or so. As you said, and we had a strong start to the year on gross productivity. I'll reiterate, this is nonprocurement-related savings, and this is the $120 million that we talked about in the release and in our prepared remarks.

是的。然後，勞倫，我想對 30 億美元和 2 億美元進行一些說明。總的來說，首先，它是基於我們在三月底的投資者日公佈的綜合保證金管理流程。這確實為我們提供了新的企業範圍的可見性、紀律、問責制、整個價值鏈的端到端。事實上，它的重點是降低總交付成本，這是一種與我們過去非常不同的方法，我們在過去一年左右的時間裡一直在努力。正如您所說，今年我們的總生產力取得了良好的開局。我要重申，這是與採購無關的節省，也是我們在新聞稿和準備好的演講中談到的 1.2 億美元。

And we also had additional savings that were delivered from the procurement side of the house, and that's embedded in our net input costs, which, again, were and net not that much of a headwind in the first quarter because of all these efforts. As we think about the cadence and what we expect to have on the $3 billion, we're off to a good start on that number. And we would expect that to be roughly about linear over the next few years as we deliver the whole $3 billion.

我們還從採購方面獲得了額外的節省，這已包含在我們的淨投入成本中，由於所有這些努力，第一季的淨投入成本並沒有那麼大。當我們考慮 30 億美元的節奏和預期時，我們在這個數字上有了一個很好的開始。我們預計，隨著我們交付全部 30 億美元，未來幾年這數字將大致呈線性。

In terms of the $200 million of SG&A savings, as a reminder, we will go live with our new operating model on October 1 of this year. So we don't expect much of that $200 million in savings in SG&A to materialize this year. That will really come into play more in 2025 and 2026. But again, really a good start to the year in productivity and procurement-related savings.

提醒一下，就 SG&A 節省的 2 億美元而言，我們將於今年 10 月 1 日啟用新的營運模式。因此，我們預計 SG&A 節省的 2 億美元今年不會實現大部分。這將在 2025 年和 2026 年真正發揮更多作用。

Okay. That's awesome. So just as a follow-up, on the SG&A side of things, what was interesting to see this quarter is that you saw pretty good operating leverage there because in the prepared remarks also, you'd called out a 50 basis point increase in advertising as a percentage of sales this quarter, which implies some pretty -- again, like I said, solid operating leverage on SG&A. And that's different than what we've seen, I guess, the last couple of years, frankly.

好的。棒極了。因此，作為後續行動，在 SG&A 方面，本季有趣的是，您看到了相當不錯的營運槓桿，因為在準備好的評論中，您還指出廣告支出增加了 50 個基點佔本季度銷售額的百分比，這意味著SG&A 方面有一些相當不錯的營運槓桿，就像我所說的那樣。坦白說，我想這與我們過去幾年所看到的有所不同。

So where do you stand, let's call it, on sort of reinvestments? Because one of the things that struck me and some of my follow-up conversations with people at the Investor Day was a lot of the things you talked about doing going forward, a lot of questions I got from people were like, well, why haven't they been doing it yet? And my thought was perhaps it's been about investing to get the capabilities to be able to do these things going forward.

那麼，我們對再投資的看法如何？因為讓我印象深刻的一件事以及我在投資者日與人們進行的一些後續對話是你談到的很多未來要做的事情，我從人們那裡得到的很多問題都是這樣的，為什麼沒有他們還沒有這樣做嗎？我的想法是，也許應該透過投資來獲得未來能夠完成這些事情的能力。

So is that a reasonable way of thinking about it? Is that reinvestment level kind of now, I don't want to call it complete, but like where it needs to be such that we should see operating leverage on SG&A ex-advertising even before you start to get some of those -- that $200 million in savings in that '25 and '26.

那麼這是一個合理的思考方式嗎？現在的再投資水平是不是已經達到了，我不想稱其為完整的，但就像它需要達到的那樣，我們應該在你開始獲得其中一些之前就看到SG&A 前廣告的運營槓桿——那200美元'25 和 '26 節省了 100 萬美元。

Yes. I mean, one, I'll start, Laura, and -- but one, we feel great about our investments in advertising. And I think we're -- we've made significant progress. I think we're up 200 to 300 basis points since I became -- came into this role. However, I'd say we're probably still underspent relative to our peer set. And so do we need -- and I think I said this in Investor Day, I don't know that we have to match them right? But I would like to continue to increase our investment. I think you're exactly right on kind of, hey, well, there's 2 factors that kind of caused us to phase our investment. I would say, if you recall, back in 2018, 2019, I did not feel like we had all the capability we needed to spend that significantly. And I think you may recall in some sessions we had or some calls people were asking, why didn't you reset invest harder, at that point, I wasn't confident what the advertising was going to do, right?

是的。我的意思是，第一，勞拉，我要開始，但第一，我們對廣告投資感到非常滿意。我認為我們已經取得了重大進展。我認為自從我擔任這個角色以來，我們的股價上漲了 200 到 300 個基點。然而，我想說，相對於我們的同行，我們的支出可能仍然不足。所以我們是否需要——我想我在投資者日說過這一點，我不知道我們必須匹配它們，對嗎？但我想繼續增加我們的投資。我認為你說得完全正確，嘿，有兩個因素導致我們分階段投資。我想說的是，如果你還記得的話，早在 2018 年、2019 年，我覺得我們沒有足夠的能力來進行大量支出。我想你可能還記得，在我們舉行的一些會議或一些電話中，人們問，你為什麼不加大力度重新投資，那時，我對廣告的效果並沒有信心，對吧？

And so in the last 5 years, I think we've really built what I would characterize as kind of world-class capability on the commercial front through the help of Alison as you're well aware. And so we've done that. We made progress. So that was one factor we were building the capability. And right now, our returns on investment, on our advertising particularly on digital and we've migrated from not having a whole lot of digital maybe 5 or 10 years ago to almost being entirely digital and those returns are significantly higher than we're driving now.

因此，在過去 5 年中，我認為透過艾莉森的幫助，我們確實在商業方面建立了我所描述的世界級能力，正如您所知。所以我們已經做到了。我們取得了進步。所以這是我們建構能力的因素之一。現在，我們的投資回報，尤其是數位廣告的投資回報，我們已經從 5 或 10 年前沒有大量數位化轉變為幾乎完全數位化，這些回報明顯高於我們所推動的水平現在。

So that's one factor. The other big factor, I think, that people forget is we had 2 years of a super inflation cycle. We had more than -- offset more than a full year of operating profit in that cycle. And so we were busy doing -- trying to recover margins as well. And so there's a lot going on in addition to all the geopolitical issues that I think well I know you're really well aware of.

這是一個因素。我認為，人們忘記的另一個重要因素是我們經歷了兩年的超級通膨週期。我們在該週期中抵銷了超過一整年的營業利潤。所以我們也忙著努力恢復利潤。因此，除了所有地緣政治問題之外，還有很多事情正在發生，我想我知道你們真的很清楚。

So there's a lot of things going on. And so we're making steps in the right direction. We're not all the way to where we want to be, but we think we can kind of manage the business in the right way to kind of deliver both a healthy top line, healthy bottom line, while continuing to invest in our business for the long term.

所以發生了很多事情。因此，我們正在朝著正確的方向邁出步伐。我們還沒有完全達到我們想要的目標，但我們認為我們可以以正確的方式管理業務，以實現健康的營收和利潤，同時繼續投資於我們的業務從長遠來看。

Your next question is coming from Nick Modi from RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的尼克莫迪。

Just a quick clarification, if you could just provide context on the destocking in terms of where you saw it? And then the actual question is obviously, the feedback broadly speaking, has been the consumer is under pressure though your results today, obviously, you seem to have outperformed a lot of that backdrop or commentary. So just Mike, would love to get your perspective on kind of category health, consumer health, kind of what you guys are seeing. I sense part of the guide and not flowing everything through is because maybe there is some uncertainty, but I'd love your thoughts on that.

請快速澄清一下，您是否可以根據您在哪裡看到的情況提供有關去庫存的背景資訊？然後，實際的問題顯然是，從廣義上講，反饋是消費者承受著壓力，儘管你今天的結果，顯然，你的表現似乎優於許多背景或評論。麥克很想聽聽你對品類健康、消費者健康以及你們所看到的情況的看法。我感覺到指南的一部分，而不是所有內容都通過，因為可能存在一些不確定性，但我很想聽聽您對此的想法。

Yes. Great questions. Yes, we did see a retail inventory reduction in the first quarter as expected, and we were given the heads up on that. And so we planned for it, it was about an 80 basis point headwind to global and about 170 bps of North America sales. And so I'd say the behavior is typical. I don't think it's unusual. We tend to see in that December, January time frame, retailers trying to get a little more efficient with how much inventory they're carrying. We tend to be very, very efficient with retailers, and I think they like our logistics capability. And so we're kind of generally early adopters of all the new systems that retailers go on to kind of try to manage their inventories better.

是的。很好的問題。是的，我們確實看到第一季零售庫存按預期減少，並且我們對此有所了解。因此，我們對此進行了計劃，全球銷售額將下降約 80 個基點，北美銷售額將下降約 170 個基點。所以我想說這種行為是典型的。我認為這並不罕見。我們往往會看到，在 12 月、1 月的時間範圍內，零售商試圖提高庫存量的效率。我們與零售商的合作往往非常非常高效，我認為他們喜歡我們的物流能力。因此，我們通常是零售商繼續嘗試更好地管理庫存的所有新系統的早期採用者。

So we're kind of on top of it. It's been baked into our outlook for the full year, but I don't know that I expect a whole lot different going forward, but it's -- what we expected in Q1 did in fact happen. I think I said earlier, our volume was a little bit stronger than we had anticipated. So more than fully offset that. So I think that was the first part. Is that enough -- clear enough on your retail inventory part, Nick?

所以我們已經處於領先地位了。它已融入我們對全年的展望中，但我不知道我對未來的預期會有多大不同，但我們在第一季的預期確實發生了。我想我之前說過，我們的成交量比我們預期的要強一些。因此，這不僅僅完全抵消了這一點。所以我認為這是第一部分。尼克，你的零售庫存部分就夠清楚了嗎？

Yes, Mike, I just -- what -- any specific categories you can call out, was it Femcare because that's T&G called that out, but I was just trying to get a category perspective on destock.

是的，麥克，我只是——什麼——你可以指出的任何具體類別，是 Femcare，因為這是 T&G 指出的，但我只是想從類別角度了解去庫存的情況。

No, for us across the board. And just to note, nothing unusual in our mind. It's like typical for what we see every year. So I think that's part one. I think your question on the consumer, I guess I would characterize the consumer environment overall for us globally, but especially in North America, is resilient. Still bifurcating, but part of that bifurcating is actually adding to category growth as well. So the category demand overall remains very, very robust. As you could see in North America. Our categories, on average, overall, were up about 5% or mid-single digit. I think that -- as you well know, we make daily essentials. And so there is low substitution in our categories and so I think that's reflected in the overall category demand.

不，對我們來說是全面的。需要注意的是，我們認為沒有什麼不尋常的。這就像我們每年都會看到的典型情況。所以我認為這是第一部分。我認為你關於消費者的問題，我想我會描述我們全球（尤其是北美）的整體消費環境是有彈性的。仍然存在分歧，但這種分歧的一部分實際上也促進了品類的增長。因此，整個品類的需求仍然非常非常強勁。正如您在北美所看到的那樣。整體而言，我們的品類平均成長了約 5% 或中等個位數。我認為，正如您所知，我們生產日常必需品。因此，我們的品類替代率較低，我認為這反映在整體品類需求上。

Importantly, the note, Nick, is premium continues to grow very, very robustly, especially in developed markets like the U.S., like in China, U.K., South Korea, but it's also premium is growing and developing in emerging markets like Brazil. And so we're continuing to see that demand there. That all said, clearly, I would say, middle to lower income households look like they are -- they're becoming more stretched based on all the economic data we're seeing.

重要的是，尼克，溢價繼續非常非常強勁地成長，特別是在美國等已開發市場，如中國、英國、韓國，但在巴西等新興市場，溢價也在成長和發展。因此，我們繼續看到那裡的需求。綜上所述，我想說的是，根據我們所看到的所有經濟數據，中低收入家庭看起來正變得更加捉襟見肘。

So I would say the bifurcation is I see a limited trade down in a few categories, notably adult care, some in household towels but we have a very, very detailed tracker across every category. I think we're tracking like 9 different dimensions. And I'd say -- so we're very vigilant about monitoring that. The thing about it is the trade down is limited at this point, but we really intend to be more valuable to our consumers at every rung of the good, better, best ladder.

所以我想說，分歧在於，我看到一些類別的貿易下降有限，特別是成人護理，一些家用毛巾，但我們在每個類別都有一個非常非常詳細的追蹤器。我認為我們正在追蹤 9 個不同的維度。我想說——所以我們對此監控非常警惕。問題是，目前的降價是有限的，但我們確實打算在好的、更好的、最好的階梯的每一個梯級上為我們的消費者提供更有價值的東西。

And so what that means is I think Anna was asking about private label or value to our quality. I mean we're making all of our products better across the board. And that certainly, I think the growth driver for us over the long term is by making products better, premiumizing, elevating our categories. But we want to serve the value-oriented consumer as well, too. And we have big brands like Scott, Bath and Kleenex mainline, Depend main line that serves those consumers well too.

所以這意味著我認為安娜在詢問自有品牌或對我們品質的價值。我的意思是，我們正在全面改進我們所有的產品。當然，我認為從長遠來看，我們的成長動力是讓產品變得更好、高端化、提升我們的類別。但我們也希望為注重價值的消費者提供服務。我們有 Scott、Bath 和 Kleenex mainline 等大品牌，Depend mainline 也很好地為這些消費者提供服務。

Your next question is coming from Chris Carey from Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的克里斯凱裡。

Just a couple of follow-ups. Just on China and the U.S., right? So in China, clearly, good numbers but I also think one of your peers delivered quite good numbers as well. And I guess the question in a way is, are we seeing the category turn in China, benefits from perhaps Chinese New Year, are you both just gaining relative market share? Clearly, it's a strong number. So I'm just trying to understand this like a bit deeper, I guess. And then secondly, on the U.S. it's really the same question on relative outperformance to category. And I know you've mentioned it a bit more, and I'm more interested in the China comment, but if you can just expand there because that stood out to me as well.

只是幾個後續行動。就中國和美國吧？因此，在中國，顯然，數字不錯，但我也認為你的一位同行也提供了相當不錯的數字。我想在某種程度上問題是，我們是否看到中國的品類轉變，也許受益於中國新年，你們兩個是否只是獲得了相對市場份額？顯然，這是一個強勁的數字。所以我想我只是想更深入地理解這一點。其次，在美國，這實際上是同樣的問題，即相對優於類別的表現。我知道你已經提得更多了，我對中國的評論更感興趣，但如果你能擴大一下範圍，因為這對我來說也很突出。

Yes. I'll start on China. Again, if you kind of saw the Investor Day presentation with Katie's leadership, our China team is doing a fantastic job there. And they've grown consistently double digits over the past 5 years, and it's become our best -- one of our best performing businesses in the company. I would say the -- I think the driver performance -- there's a couple of factors. Certainly, a strong Chinese New Year execution. But overall, we make a great product. I believe it's the best product in the marketplace. I think consumers are excited about the products that we offer. And then we have really, really strong digital executions that really kind of drive that relationship with consumers.

是的。我將從中國開始。再說一次，如果您看過凱蒂領導的投資者日演講，我們的中國團隊在那裡做得非常出色。在過去的 5 年裡，它們一直以兩位數的速度成長，它已經成為我們最好的業務——我們公司中表現最好的業務之一。我想說——我認為車手的表現——有幾個因素。當然，中國新年的執行力很強。但總的來說，我們製造了一款很棒的產品。我相信這是市場上最好的產品。我認為消費者對我們提供的產品感到興奮。然後我們擁有非常非常強大的數位執行力，可以真正推動與消費者的關係。

And so to answer your question, I think it's more of a share pickup. The category itself based on the data I'm seeing was still down about 10% in the quarter, consistent with the birth rate trends and everything else we're seeing. So it's a share pickup. And I'll point out we're the market leader in China but that's predicated, we're only at a, I would say, a mid- to high-teens share at this point. And so we feel very good about our positions, but it's a fragmented category. And so there's a lot of opportunity for us to drive further share growth in the market.

因此，為了回答你的問題，我認為這更像是股票收購。根據我看到的數據，該類別本身在本季度仍然下降了約 10%，這與出生率趨勢和我們看到的其他一切一致。所以這是一個股票拾取。我要指出的是，我們是中國的市場領導者，但這是有前提的，我想說，目前我們的市佔率只有中到十幾歲。因此，我們對自己的立場感覺非常好，但這是一個支離破碎的類別。因此，我們有許多機會推動市場佔有率進一步成長。

Importantly, I think for us, we're also picking up on our mainstream business. And part of the strategy, when I say, hey, we want to be great at every tier or every run of the good, better, best ladder, we want to accelerate innovation at the top end and then cascade that quickly through our line. And so we're doing that. And I think we're seeing that in the results in China for sure and similarly in the U.S.

重要的是，我認為對我們來說，我們也在發展我們的主流業務。作為策略的一部分，當我說，嘿，我們希望在每一層或每一次良好、更好、最好的階梯上都表現出色，我們希望加速高端創新，然後將其快速級聯到我們的產品線。所以我們正在這樣做。我認為我們在中國的結果中肯定看到了這一點，在美國也有類似的情況。

And then if I could just one follow-up would be clearly, pulps are on the move. It's a bit more on the front end of the curve, being in the back half of the year 2025, but this is going to be perhaps the first moment to really kind of show the ability to work through this cycle. Just any thoughts on the moves that you're seeing and the types of actions that you might defer to if these moves prove durable and even accelerate between pricing, productivity and whether you see any potential kind of margin issues on the horizon? Or if this feels very much manageable at this point?

如果我可以的話，我可以明確地說，紙漿正在移動。 2025 年下半年，這可能是曲線的前端，但這可能是第一個真正展示完成這一週期的能力的時刻。對您所看到的舉措以及您可能會推遲的行動類型有什麼想法嗎？或者現在感覺這很容易控制嗎？

Well, I'm going to start with -- Nelson could disagree with me if you want, Nelson. I would say, manageable at this point because here's I said, hey, new normal. I think this is what I'd characterize as a more normal year for a CPG for the first time in the last 3 or 4 years for us, which is, hey, a stable input cost environment. It's still not deflationary. At some point, one would hope that it becomes deflationary. But I'd say, hey, it's slightly inflationary, but relatively stable. That's different than the past 3 or 4 years for us. And so I think for us, we have very good productivity plans. And so if the cost -- input costs remain stable, we can operate very, very well in a stable cost environment and let that productivity drop through.

好吧，我要開始——如果你願意的話，尼爾森可以不同意我的觀點，尼爾森。我想說，在這一點上是可以管理的，因為我說，嘿，新常態。我認為這是過去 3 或 4 年來我們第一次將 CPG 描述為更正常的一年，這是一個穩定的投入成本環境。它仍然沒有通貨緊縮。在某些時候，人們會希望它會出現通貨緊縮。但我想說，嘿，它有點通膨，但相對穩定。這與我們過去三、四年不同。所以我認為對我們來說，我們有非常好的生產力計劃。因此，如果成本——投入成本保持穩定，我們就可以在穩定的成本環境中運作得非常非常好，並讓生產力下降。

So that's one part. And then the other part of the normal is, I think with -- there's been a lot of volatility in demand with COVID and everything else over the past few years. I think we're starting to see demand stabilize. And so with those 2 factors, I think we can operate well. We're very cognizant and Nelson will talk about it, that we're -- there are some demand signals around different pulp environmental changes, but we're well aware of that, and we think we have that accounted for in our current call. But Nelson.

這就是一部分。我認為，正常情況的另一部分是——過去幾年，由於新冠疫情和其他一切因素，需求出現了很大的波動。我認為我們開始看到需求穩定下來。因此，有了這兩個因素，我認為我們可以運作得很好。我們非常清楚，納爾遜會談論這一點，我們——圍繞不同的紙漿環境變化存在一些需求信號，但我們很清楚這一點，我們認為我們在當前的電話會議中已經考慮到了這一點。但是尼爾森.

Sure. So just to build on what Mike was saying, Chris. So a few things. I'll start with -- we've built significant capabilities over the last 5 years in order for us to be able to maneuver through the ups and downs. Obviously, if we have a shock like what we saw 2, 3 years ago, that's a different situation that we'd have to maneuver through. But as Mike said, and as we've said back in January, we see the situation is manageable. To reiterate, I mean, when we talked in January, we talked about $200 million to $250 million of net input costs all in. That included currency, other costs as well as commodities, which we still see deflationary for the full year for us.

當然。所以，克里斯，我只是以麥克所說的為基礎。所以有幾件事。首先，我們在過去 5 年裡建立了重要的能力，以便我們能夠渡過風風雨雨。顯然，如果我們遇到像兩三年前那樣的衝擊，那麼我們就必須應對不同的情況。但正如麥克所說，正如我們在一月份所說的那樣，我們認為情況是可以控制的。重申一下，我的意思是，當我們在一月份討論時，我們討論了 2 億至 2.5 億美元的淨投入成本。

Now on that range, we're now staring at the high end of that range, which, again, we see as manageable, as Mike said. A couple of things to keep in the back of your mind as you look at the numbers, core commodities like pulp, resin-based materials, energy in dollar terms, while they're a little bit more unfavorable today versus what we were seeing back in January because we're seeing some upticks still for the full year, they would remain a tailwind. We continue to see distribution, logistics and labor costs as inflationary for the year.

現在，在這個範圍內，我們現在正盯著該範圍的高端，正如麥克所說，我們再次認為這是可以控制的。當你查看數字時，需要牢記一些事情，核心商品如紙漿、樹脂基材料、以美元計算的能源，儘管它們今天的情況與我們過去看到的相比有點不利一月份，因為我們看到全年仍有一些上升，它們仍將是一個順風車。我們仍然認為今年的分銷、物流和勞動成本將會出現通膨。

And then obviously, for non-U.S. operations, currency will be a headwind in costs because they're buying pulp and many of the inputs that they use to manufacture the products in hard currency. So on a net basis, that's how we get there. The thing to also keep in mind is that we expect the phasing of our input cost inflation to be more muted in the first half of the year. And this follows the trend that we saw in Q3 and Q4 of 2023. That would carry over pretty much through Q2. And we'll see an uptick of this as we go into the back half of the year. But again, it's all factored into our outlook. And the only difference is really we're more at the high end than the range that we had given before.

顯然，對於非美國業務來說，貨幣將成為成本的阻力，因為他們以硬通貨購買紙漿和用於製造產品的許多投入。因此，在淨基礎上，這就是我們實現這一目標的方式。還需要記住的是，我們預計今年上半年投入成本通膨的階段性將更加溫和。這遵循了我們在 2023 年第三季和第四季看到的趨勢。當我們進入今年下半年時，我們會看到這種情況增加。但同樣，這一切都考慮到了我們的前景。唯一的區別是我們實際上比我們之前給出的範圍更高端。

Yes. Chris, just to calibrate you. I think, Nelson like when we're looking at a couple of hundred million of inflationary impact, just to calibrate you in 2021 and 2022, we took on $1.6 billion and $1.7 billion, respectively. So I would say that's kind of why we feel like it's -- that's one reason why we feel like it's more manageable. The scale is totally different. And then the other thing is as Nelson points out, we've changed how we manage the business in some ways to try to become a little more predictable. And we have better tools than we had maybe 5 years ago and so.

是的。克里斯，只是為了校準你。我認為，尼爾森，就像我們在考慮幾億通膨影響時一樣，只是為了在 2021 年和 2022 年進行校準，我們分別承擔了 16 億美元和 17 億美元。所以我想說，這就是我們感覺它更容易管理的原因之一。規模完全不同。另一件事是，正如尼爾森指出的那樣，我們在某些​​方面改變了業務管理方式，試圖變得更加可預測。我們擁有比 5 年前更好的工具等等。

Totally. And just to build on Mike's point on the tools, as a reminder, I mean, we have a very strong pipeline of productivity initiatives. We're looking out 3 years and I've been chatting about this for the last few quarters. That pipeline remains strong. You would have seen that non-procurement-related productivity was very strong getting out of the year, and the team is very confident in our ability to continue to deliver, not just in this year, but in the following 2, 3 years, which builds on our ability to deliver on the $3 billion commitment of overall gross productivity in the next 5 years or so. So that's built into how we're looking into cost and inflation for the next few quarters.

完全。在麥克關於工具的觀點的基礎上，提醒一下，我的意思是，我們擁有非常強大的生產力計劃管道。我們展望了三年，過去幾季我一直在談論這個問題。該管道仍然強勁。你會看到，今年非採購相關的生產力非常強勁，團隊對我們繼續交付的能力非常有信心，不僅在今年，而且在接下來的 2、3 年，這建立在我們有能力在未來5 年左右的時間內兌現30 億美元總體總生產力的承諾的基礎上。因此，這已成為我們研究未來幾季成本和通膨的方式。

Your next question is coming from Steve Powers from Deutsche Bank.

你們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的史蒂夫·鮑爾斯。

Two questions, if I could. The first one builds on the conversation just having with Chris around commodities and managing it through the cycle. I guess I'm curious as to the steps you've taken to better maneuver through input cost cycles and essentially better protect this year. Does that include different ways of sourcing and contracting and hedging but in effect, pushes out the cost curve as we would typically know it for Kimberly-Clark. I guess what I'm thinking about is that in the past, if we saw reinflation like we have year-to-date, we'd be thinking about that kind of flowing through and impacting the latter third, about 1/4 of the current fiscal year, kind of a 6-month, maybe 6- to 9-month lag. It sounds now like you've got better visibility. I'm wondering how much of that has just pushed out that reinflation into '25.

如果可以的話，有兩個問題。第一個是建立在與克里斯圍繞大宗商品進行對話並在整個週期中進行管理的基礎上的。我想我很好奇你們今年採取了哪些措施來更好地應對投入成本週期並從本質上更好地保護。這是否包括不同的採購、承包和對沖方式，但實際上，正如我們通常所了解的金佰利公司那樣，推出了成本曲線。我想我在想的是，在過去，如果我們看到像今年迄今為止那樣的再通膨，我們會考慮這種流動並影響後三分之一，大約是 1/4 的貨幣。相比，有6 個月甚至6 到9 個月的延遲。現在聽起來你的能見度更好了。我想知道其中有多少因素將通貨膨脹推遲到了 25 年。

Maybe I'll say a couple of things. One, Steve, is I think the analyst community and the investor committee, I think, made very clear to me when I came into this role that one of the -- one of the issues they had with KMB is the earnings volatility. And so I've been very cognizant of that fact. And so we've, over the past 5 years, kind of worked significant -- worked pretty hard to kind of reduce some of the underlying volatility in our business. Nelson, with an outside perspective has really worked hard to bring some different kinds of tools into our thinking. And so we've been applying that over the last couple of years and so we feel very good about that. Certainly, there is inherent volatility in our business certainly in pulp, one would think at some point with the super cycle of inflation that we have on pulp, it's still elevated and at some point, it needs to come back down. History would say it's going to come back down further. That said, I think we've built the right tools. And Nelson, you may comment about what we're doing there.

也許我會說幾件事。第一，史蒂夫，我認為分析師群體和投資者委員會在我擔任這個職位時向我明確表示，他們在 KMB 遇到的問題之一是獲利波動。所以我非常清楚這個事實。因此，在過去的 5 年裡，我們做了很多工作，非常努力地減少了我們業務中的一些潛在波動。具有外部視角的尼爾森確實努力將一些不同類型的工具帶入我們的思維中。因此，我們在過去幾年中一直在應用這一點，因此我們對此感覺非常好。當然，我們的紙漿業務確實存在固有的波動性，人們會認為在某個時候，隨著紙漿的超級通貨膨脹週期，它仍然處於上升狀態，在某個時候，它需要回落。歷史表明，這一數字還會進一步下降。也就是說，我認為我們已經建立了正確的工具。納爾遜，你可以評論一下我們在那裡所做的事情。

Sure thing. And just to build, I mean, the integrated margin management approach, Steve, that we've been working on for the last year or so really addresses part of this volatility. It is end-to-end as we chatted on March 27, and it looks at all the elements that drive total delivery cost as well as margins. And it starts with we've been building muscle around revenue growth management, and that's very important. Price back architectures, what kind of price backs do we have for the different channels and how do we tackle that, including promo activity, et cetera, which is very important across all the geographies we work in.

當然可以。我的意思是，為了建立綜合保證金管理方法，史蒂夫，我們在過去一年左右的時間裡一直在努力，真正解決了這種波動的部分問題。正如我們在 3 月 27 日討論的那樣，它是端到端的，它著眼於推動總交付成本和利潤的所有因素。首先，我們一直在圍繞收入成長管理增強實力，這非常重要。價格返還架構，我們為不同管道提供什麼樣的價格返還，以及我們如何解決這個問題，包括促銷活動等，這對於我們工作的所有地區都非常重要。

Secondly, are the tools that Mike was talking about on how do we handle costs. We don't reveal what are the contract structures that we have in place or the hedging activities, but we obviously have gotten into much more proactive risk management to be able to have visibility into costs and give us time to react. And what do we react with? We react with productivity initiatives and elements of revenue growth management. That's the -- that's a big difference on how we were approaching it 5 years ago. And we've been building that muscle over time, and that's then drives into this visibility into the productivity element, which right now, we've split it, and we're being very clear of this is the productivity within the 4 walls. That's the $120 million that we talked about. And then we have productivity and procurement, which is embedded in our net input costs.

其次，是麥克談到的關於我們如何處理成本的工具。我們沒有透露我們現有的合約結構或對沖活動是什麼，但我們顯然已經採取了更主動的風險管理，以便能夠了解成本並給我們時間做出反應。我們對此有何反應？我們對生產力計劃和收入成長管理要素做出反應。這與 5 年前我們的處理方式有很大不同。隨著時間的推移，我們一直在增強這種力量，然後推動生產力元素的可見性，現在，我們已經將其分開，我們非常清楚這是 4 堵牆內的生產力。這就是我們談到的 1.2 億美元。然後我們有生產力和採購，這包含在我們的淨投入成本中。

And that clearly gives accountability across the supply chain on how to drive lower total deliver costs or at least manage through the margins. So yes, I'd say it's muscle we've been building over the last 5 years, as Mike said. And obviously, we're not going to be immune to moves in commodities, but the visibility we have today, the ability to react is different than what we had in the past.

這清楚地賦予了整個供應鏈關於如何降低總交付成本或至少管理利潤的責任。所以，是的，我想說，正如麥克所說，這是我們在過去 5 年裡一直在增強的力量。顯然，我們不會免受大宗商品波動的影響，但我們今天的可見度和反應能力與過去不同。

Yes. Okay. That's very helpful. And this answer the next question may be short, if you've already addressed it, you can tell me to just go read the transcript afterwards. I joined late. I apologize. But in the...

是的。好的。這非常有幫助。下一個問題的答案可能很短，如果您已經解決了，可以告訴我之後再看一次文字記錄。我加入得很晚。我道歉。但在...

We would never [rediverge] , Steve.

我們永遠不會[再次分歧]，史蒂夫。

In the prepared remarks, you mentioned private plans to exit some private label businesses. I know those plans are still kind of under construction, but you did make mention of it with some impacts on '25. If you could -- if anything further you can say on that today, that would be great.

在準備好的發言中，您提到了私人計劃退出一些自有品牌業務。我知道這些計劃仍在建設中，但您確實提到了它對 25 年的一些影響。如果您今天能就此發表進一步的意見，那就太好了。

Okay. Just to be clear, Steve, that question was not asked. So it's a great question. Just on that, yes, I did want to flag that we are -- strategically, let me just tell you we're focusing on differentiating our brands with proprietary science-based innovation. That was kind of the big theme that we shared with you all at our Investor Day. Just to give you some context. Today, our last year, private label production represented about 4% of our global sales. And so what we announced today will likely cut that in half by the end of 2025. The thing I'll say is -- and it takes 2 parties to make a decision, so I won't get into any specifics, but I would say RM as you think about what we say as science is our competitive advantage. The investments we're making in our new personal care core technology that resides in our diapers, in our feminine care pads, in our adult care. Also to get to natural forest free, all that development, that's all going to take some pretty chunky capital.

好的。需要澄清的是，史蒂夫，這個問題沒有被問過。所以這是一個很好的問題。就這一點，是的，我確實想指出，從戰略上講，我們正在專注於透過專有的基於科學的創新來使我們的品牌脫穎而出。這是我們在投資者日與大家分享的一個大主題。只是為了給您一些背景資訊。今天，也就是我們的最後一年，自有品牌產量約占我們全球銷售額的 4%。因此，我們今天宣布的內容可能會在 2025 年底前將這一數字減少一半。說的「科學是我們的競爭優勢」時，就說RM。我們對新的個人護理核心技術的投資，該技術存在於我們的尿布、女性護理墊和成人護理產品中。此外，為了實現無天然林的發展，所有這些都需要一些相當大的資本。

And so we are making significant technology and capacity investments and so we really want to be more choiceful as we go forward about where we spend that capital. And so that's really kind of underlying some of that decision-making. These decisions are going to enable us to focus our tech investment on what we see as our greater strategic priorities. And I might note, our exposure to private label could decrease further over time.

因此，我們正在進行重大的技術和產能投資，因此我們確實希望在未來如何使用這些資本時能夠有更多的選擇。所以這確實是某些決策的基礎。這些決定將使我們能夠將技術投資集中在我們認為更重要的策略優先事項上。我可能會注意到，隨著時間的推移，我們對自有品牌的接觸可能會進一步減少。

And just to add further color on what we would expect from a bottom line standpoint, Steve, it should be consistent with what you're seeing in the top line. And then, obviously, we're working through supply chain transition, repurposing and related cost opportunities within the context of our whole network optimization initiative, which is 1 of our 3 strategies in the supply chain strategy that we unveiled at Investor Day. We will have more to say as we go into 2025 guidance period.

為了進一步豐富我們從底線的角度所期望的內容，史蒂夫，它應該與您在頂線中看到的內容一致。然後，顯然，我們正在整個網路優化計劃的背景下解決供應鏈轉型、重新利用和相關成本機會，這是我們在投資者日公佈的供應鏈策略中的三個策略之一。當我們進入 2025 年指導期時，我們將有更多話要說。

If you could take maybe 1 more question, that would be great.

如果您還能再回答 1 個問題，那就太好了。

Your next question is coming from Javier Escalante from Evercore.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Javier Escalante。

I do have kind of like a quick clarification to Lauren's question first because it's in the context of guidance versus what is incremental in terms of the restructuring and whether it's sensitive to me from the outside is kind of like coming through earlier. So basically, the $120 million in savings that you flagged, are they part of the $3 billion that you spoke of a month ago or not, and then we can address the other piece, if you don't mind?

我確實想先對勞倫的問題進行快速澄清，因為它是在指導的背景下，而不是在重組方面增量的情況下進行的，以及外部對我是否敏感有點像之前提出的問題。所以基本上，您標記的 1.2 億美元儲蓄是否屬於您一個月前談到的 30 億美元的一部分，然後如果您不介意的話，我們可以討論另一部分？

Yes. The short answer, Javier, is yes, it is part. We said that our new chapter started in Q1 of this year, and that's part of the 5 years commitment to deliver that. The $120 million is part of that. And then there's an element of procurement savings that we're not disclosing today. We are committed to disclosing the entire savings, including procurement, annually, so that you get a perspective of how we're tracking against the $3 billion that we committed to.

是的。哈維爾，簡短的回答是肯定的，它是一部分。我們說過，我們的新篇章於今年第一季開始，這是實現這一目標的 5 年承諾的一部分。 1.2億美元是其中的一部分。還有一個我們今天沒有透露的採購節省因素。我們致力於每年揭露包括採購在內的全部節省費用，以便您了解我們如何追蹤我們承諾的 30 億美元。

So congratulations on the very early start because I also see that the October -- the new organization is starting in October, I thought that it would be something of 2025. So is that all true, right, if savings are coming through earlier, why is it at the guidance? And is the other thing that I get from your transcript prepared remarks is that revenue realization faster. So you have faster revenue realizations from ForEx, right? You have faster savings coming from and they're sizable, right, $3 billion coming from the restructuring. So I understand that you want to be conservative, but if we take you literally, the numbers for the balance of the year needs to come down. Is that what you want in terms of consensus to look like, very simple?

所以恭喜你很早就開始了，因為我也看到了10 月——新的組織將在10 月開始，我認為這將是2025 年的事情。儲蓄提前到位，為什麼是在指導下嗎？我從你的筆錄中得到的另一件事是，收入實現得更快。那麼您可以更快地從外匯中實現收入，對吧？你可以更快地節省資金，而且重組帶來的資金規模相當大，對吧，30 億美元。所以我理解你想要保守，但如果我們從字面上理解，今年剩餘的數字需要下降。這就是你想要的共識嗎？

Well, I'll just start. Javier, I'd say, hey, we're still early in the year, and we feel really good about our start. We feel very confident in our performance this year. But that said, there's -- as Nelson pointed out in his remarks and in our prepared remarks, there's still a lot of uncertainty out in the world right now, both in terms of the geopolitical situation and the effects that could have on global demand. But also, as you've heard just on the last few questions on the input cost environment. So I probably would say, yes, we're taking a prudent approach to make on our call. But certainly, encouraged by our start to the year and would love to drive to a very strong result this year. Nelson?

好吧，我就開始吧。哈維爾，我想說，嘿，我們還處於今年初期，我們對我們的開始感覺非常好。我們對今年的表現非常有信心。但話雖如此，正如納爾遜在他的演講和我們準備好的演講中指出的那樣，目前世界仍然存在許多不確定性，無論是地緣政治局勢還是對全球需求可能產生的影響。而且，正如您在最後幾個有關投入成本環境的問題中所聽到的那樣。所以我可能會說，是的，我們正在採取謹慎的態度來做出決定。但當然，我們對今年的開局感到鼓舞，並希望今年能取得非常強勁的成績。納爾遜？

Yes. And just to build on Mike's point, Javier, I mean a couple of things. We're focused, obviously, on margin trajectory over time. And margins will move quarter-to-quarter. And they have to do with country and category mix, timing of our innovation pipeline as well as changes in absolute productivity delivery. Productivity delivery is not linear. I mean the timing of when projects come online and how quickly we can realize the benefits, we have an estimate, but again, you got to get them through. We have a full outlook for the year, and that's embedded there, and we're very encouraged by how the whole year started, but we have a lot of activities still coming our way, including a very strong innovation pipeline for which we're going to be putting back money into the business. We're going to be stepping up investments at least 50 basis points for the balance of the year. And if we see opportunities to invest more in the business and more in our transformation to accelerate it, we will. So we're taking all of that into account and also take into consideration the sale of our PPE business, which we've built into the forecast, which is about a headwind of $0.08 for the balance of the second half of the year.

是的。哈維爾，為了進一步闡述麥克的觀點，我想說幾件事。顯然，我們關注的是一段時間內的利潤軌跡。利潤率將逐季度變化。它們與國家和類別組合、我們創新管道的時機以及絕對生產力交付的變化有關。生產力交付不是線性的。我的意思是專案上線的時間以及我們能夠多快實現效益，我們有一個估計，但同樣，你必須完成它們。我們對今年有一個全面的展望，這是根深蒂固的，我們對全年的開始感到非常鼓舞，但我們還有很多活動正在進行，包括我們正在進行的非常強大的創新管道將把資金重新投入到業務中。今年剩餘時間我們將增加投資至少 50 個基點。如果我們看到有機會增加對業務和轉型的投資以加速轉型，我們就會這麼做。因此，我們正在考慮所有這些因素，並考慮到我們的 PPE 業務的出售，我們已將其納入預測，這對於今年下半年的剩餘時間來說大約是 0.08 美元的阻力。

Great. Well, thank you, everyone, for joining us today. For those of you who have follow-up questions, (inaudible) and myself will certainly be available for follow-ups. So thanks again, and we look forward to seeing you going forward.

偉大的。好的，謝謝大家今天加入我們。對於那些有後續問題的人，（聽不清楚）和我本人肯定可以進行後續跟進。再次感謝您，我們期待與您繼續前進。

Thank you. Everyone, this concludes today's event. You may disconnect at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。各位，今天的活動到此結束。此時您可能會斷開連接，並度過美好的一天。感謝您的參與。