金百利克拉克 (KMB) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings.

問候。

Welcome to the Kimberly-Clark 4Q 2024 earnings call.

歡迎參加金佰利 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please note, this conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）請注意，本次會議正在錄音。

I will now turn the conference over to your host, Chris Jakubik, Vice President, Investor Relations.

現在，我將會議交給主持人、投資人關係副總裁 Chris Jakubik。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us.

大家早安，感謝大家的收看。

I just want to remind everyone that during our comments today, we will make some forward-looking statements that are based on how we see things today.

我只是想提醒大家，在今天的評論中，我們將根據我們今天的看法做出一些前瞻性的陳述。

Actual results may differ due to risks and uncertainties and these are discussed in our earnings release and our filings with the SEC.

由於風險和不確定性，實際結果可能有所不同，這些風險和不確定性在我們的收益報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中進行了討論。

We will also discuss the non-GAAP financial measures during these remarks.

我們也將在這些評論中討論非公認會計準則財務指標。

These non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered a replacement for and should be read together with GAAP results.

這些非 GAAP 財務指標不應被視為 GAAP 結果的替代品，而應與 GAAP 結果一起閱讀。

You can find the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within our earnings release and the supplemental materials posted at investor.kimberly-clark.com.

您可以在我們的收益報告和 investor.kimberly-clark.com 上發布的補充資料中找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 的對帳表。

With that, I'm going to turn it over to Mike for a few opening comments.

現在，我將把時間交給麥克，讓他發表一些開場評論。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Chris. 2024 was an outstanding year for our team and the future of Kimberly-Clark as we launched our multiyear Powering Care transformation strategy.

謝謝你，克里斯。 2024 年對於我們團隊和金佰利的未來來說都是非凡的一年，因為我們啟動了為期多年的 Powering Care 轉型策略。

Last year, we built the foundation to accelerate our growth in the years to come.

去年，我們為未來幾年的加速成長奠定了基礎。

We rewired our organization into three powerhouse segments to become a better, faster and stronger organization.

我們將組織重組為三個強大的部門，以成為一個更好、更快、更強大的組織。

We've pivoted to volume plus mix driven growth and established strong market share momentum.

我們已經轉向以數量加組合驅動的成長，並建立了強勁的市場份額勢頭。

And we made the successful transition from margin recovery in 2023 to establishing a new phase of margin expansion in 2024.

我們成功實現了從 2023 年利潤率恢復到 2024 年利潤率擴大新階段的過渡。

Our progress enabled us to deliver full year results that exceeded our long-term algorithm even as we absorb discrete headwinds.

儘管我們承受著離散的阻力，但我們的進步使我們能夠提供超出我們長期演算法的全年業績。

Now we entered 2025 with good visibility on the key drivers of our growth and profit potential.

現在，我們已進入 2025 年，對推動我們成長和獲利潛力的關鍵驅動因素有了清晰的認識。

We're confident in our plans to deliver innovation like growth ahead of the categories in which we compete.

我們對我們的計劃充滿信心，我們能夠實現創新，從而領先於我們所競爭的類別實現成長。

We're continuing to invest in product quality, brand support and capability building.

我們將繼續投資於產品品質、品牌支援和能力建設。

And we're bullish on our ability to continue powering investment and bottom line growth with industry-leading productivity and SG&A savings through wiring for growth.

我們對自己繼續透過佈線促進成長，以行業領先的生產力和銷售、一般及行政開支節省來推動投資和底線增長的能力充滿信心。

This year, we'll continue to transform while performing, scaling our playbook and capabilities across the globe and shaping our portfolio for stronger, more profitable growth over the long term.

今年，我們將繼續在經營的同時進行轉型，在全球範圍內擴大我們的策略和能力，並塑造我們的投資組合，以實現長期更強勁、更盈利的成長。

Through Powering Care, we're taking actions that are enabling us to navigate a dynamic environment and provide better care for a better world.

透過 Powering Care，我們正在採取行動，使我們能夠駕馭動態環境，並為更美好的世界提供更好的照護。

Now with that, we'd like to open the lines for your questions.

現在，我們願意接受大家的提問。

(Operator Instructions) Dara Mohsenian, Morgan Stanley.

(操作員指示) 摩根士丹利的 Dara Mohsenian。

So just hoping to spend some time on the top line, maybe we can split it into the long term versus the short term.

因此，只是希望花一些時間在營收上，也許我們可以將其分為長期和短期。

Maybe, Mike, you can just take a step back now that we're at year-end, give us a review of where you think you stand on the organizational front with the rewiring plans you announced at Analyst Day both in terms of reorganizing the way you approach the business, but also some of the tangible benefits from that you talked about greater, more impactful innovation, more effective marketing, et cetera?

Mike，現在我們已經到了年底，也許你可以退一步思考一下，回顧一下你在分析師日宣布的重組計劃在組織方面的立場，包括重組您處理業務的方式，以及您談到的一些切實好處，例如更大、更有影響力的創新、更有效的行銷等等？

So are you pleased with where you stand today?

那你對現在的狀況滿意嗎？

Maybe give us an update?

也許可以給我們最新消息？

And as you think about 2025, is it more of a step function in yielding some of those benefits from all those changes?

當您想到 2025 年時，它是否更像是一個階梯函數，可以從所有這些變化中獲得一些好處？

Or do you see those benefits building more over time?

或者您認為這些好處會隨著時間的推移而逐漸增加？

Okay.

好的。

All right.

好的。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

There's a lot in that.

這裡面有很多內容。

I'll try to get to all of it, and Nelson may and Chris may keep me honest here.

我會盡力做到這一切，尼爾森和克里斯也可能讓我保持誠實。

Overall, Dara, I'd say I feel very good about our setup for and also for the long term.

總的來說，達拉，我對我們的長期安排感到非常滿意。

Maybe the one external piece, I'd say, is our categories continue to exhibit very durable growth.

我想說，也許一個外部因素是我們的類別繼續表現出非常持久的成長。

The underlying demand is healthy our categories continue to expand in dollars and units or value and units.

基本需求是健康的，我們的類別以美元和單位或價值和單位繼續擴大。

And that's because I think we've talked about this before, Dara, we see really three durable drivers of growth over the long term.

因為我認為我們之前已經談論過這個問題，達拉，我們看到長期來看確實有三個持久的成長動力。

Number one is penetration, which remains an opportunity.

第一是滲透率，仍然是一個機會。

I'd say the good news is birth rate declines are leveling off.

我想說的好消息是出生率下降趨勢正在趨於平穩。

And in some markets, notably, Korea, we saw a positive birth rate in the third quarter, which continued in the fourth and that was the first time in eight years.

在一些市場，尤其是韓國，我們看到第三季的出生率出現了正增長，而這種趨勢在第四季度延續了下來，這是八年來的首次。

And in China was positive in birth rate as well.

中國的出生率也呈現正成長。

So I'd say, one, on penetration, birth rate declines kind of inflecting a bit at least early signs.

所以我想說，首先，就滲透率而言，出生率下降至少有一定的早期跡象。

Aging population for our adult care categories remains a big tailwind, especially in developed markets like South Korea and China, US.

人口老化對於我們的成人照護類別來說仍然是一個巨大的推動力，尤其是在韓國、中國、美國等已開發市場。

And then there remains in much of the developing world and expanding middle class that remains a big driver for us.

此外，在許多發展中國家和不斷擴大的中產階級仍然是我們發展的一大推動力。

Second big thing, frequency remains strong.

第二件大事是，頻率依然強勁。

There was some pockets of softness.

有一些柔軟的地方。

Notably, I'd say, in pockets of Latin America and Southeast Asia, but frequency remains robust for us.

值得注意的是，我想說的是，在拉丁美洲和東南亞的部分地區，但頻率對我們來說仍然很強勁。

And then maybe one of our bigger opportunities remains trade up.

那麼也許我們的一個更大的機會仍然是貿易升級。

Consumers remain very interested in better-performing products.

消費者對性能更好的產品仍然非常感興趣。

And so we're seeing the premium end of our categories continue to grow.

因此，我們看到我們產品類別的高端化持續成長。

So with all that said, I'd say in the short term, we're seeing, and I think it was in our prepared remarks, 2% category growth this year, which is on the lower end of what we said.

所以，綜上所述，我想說，在短期內，我們看到，而且我想這是我們準備好的評論中所說的，今年的類別增長率為2%，這處於我們所說的較低水平。

But I'd still say fairly robust, durable for our categories.

但我仍然認為，對於我們的類別而言，它是相當穩健、耐用的。

The big thing is our categories are daily essentials.

最重要的是我們的類別是日常必需品。

And so they don't move around that much from day to day and year-to-year.

所以它們每天、每年都不會發生太大的移動。

So I'd say maybe that would be on the shorter term.

因此我想這可能只是短期的。

And then over the long term, I think we're positioned well to deliver consistent volume and mix growth over the long term.

從長遠來看，我認為我們有能力實現長期穩定的數量和組合成長。

I think we believe our growth profile will continue to improve over time.

我相信我們的成長狀況將隨著時間的推移而持續改善。

And that's, as I just mentioned, a function of demographics and income and all the investment we're doing to make our categories and our products and brands better.

正如我剛才提到的，這是人口統計和收入的結果，也是我們為改善我們的類別、產品和品牌而進行的所有投資的結果。

I think what we said last March at Investor Day, we expected weighted average category growth to revert to a historical range of 2% to 3%.

我認為，正如我們去年 3 月投資者日所說的那樣，我們預計加權平均類別成長率將恢復到 2% 至 3% 的歷史範圍。

And last year through the first half, we were a little ahead of that.

去年上半年，我們已略微領先於此。

And then after lapping some price moves from the prior year, I'd say we've seen some lower frequency in some markets and a little bit of a slowdown in North America professional consumption.

然後，在經歷了上一年的一些價格變動之後，我想說，我們看到一些市場的頻率有所降低，北美專業消費也略有放緩。

But overall, I think the categories have globally performed pretty well.

但總體而言，我認為這些類別在全球範圍內的表現都相當不錯。

So for this -- for the -- going forward for this year, I don't really expect a whole lot of new pricing that will -- that drive that up.

因此，就今年而言，我並不認為會出現大量新的定價來推高價格。

And I think, as I mentioned, the category we have at around 2% this year and expect longer term 2% to 3% volume mix driven, I think, is a reasonable aspiration for us or for what the category is going to do, and then we want to grow faster than that.

我認為，正如我所提到的那樣，今年我們的類別成長率約為2%，並且預計長期來看，銷量組合將成長2% 至3%，我認為這對於我們或該類別的未來發展而言是一個合理的願望。

So I'll pause there.

我就在這裡暫停一下。

I know there's a lot to your question.

我知道您的問題很多。

I just gave you a lot, which other things did I miss?

我剛剛給了你很多，我還漏掉了什麼？

That was very comprehensive.

那非常全面。

I think you got it all.

我想你已經了解了一切。

But maybe I'll just follow up on 2025 specifically, it didn't sound like you expect a lot of pricing.

但也許我會特別關注 2025 年，聽起來你並沒有期待太多的定價。

Maybe just take me through your decision process on pricing, particularly given some FX pressure and how you think about the balance between price and volume as you look out to 2025?

也許您可以向我介紹您的定價決策過程，特別是考慮到一些外匯壓力，以及您如何看待 2025 年價格和數量之間的平衡？

And just level of visibility you can do a 2-plus or better than category growth, presuming it stays in that 2% range.

並且，就可見性等級而言，您可以實現 2 以上或比類別成長更好，假設它保持在 2% 的範圍內。

Just given if we strip out hyperinflation, you've been a bit below that the last few quarters.

如果我們剔除惡性通貨膨脹，過去幾季的通膨水準就略低於這個數字。

Some of that's probably inventory, but just how you think about the level of visibility also specifically

其中一些可能是庫存，但你如何看待可見度，具體來說

--

--

I'll ask Nelson to give our thoughts on that.

我將請尼爾森就此發表我們的看法。

Yes, Dara.

是的，達拉。

So let me give you unpack a little bit the top line expectations for '25 and also walk through the pricing trajectory that we've seen in '24 because it builds into what we're expecting for '25.

因此，讓我向您稍微解釋一下 25 年的營收預期，並介紹我們在 24 年看到的定價軌跡，因為它​​符合我們對 25 年的預期。

So a few things.

有幾件事。

As Mike said, 2025 overall, we expect pricing to be pretty much muted on an enterprise level aggregate, so largely flat.

正如麥克所說，總體而言，到 2025 年，我們預計企業層級的整體定價將相當低迷，基本上持平。

We're coming off a year as we put in our prepared remarks and as you would have seen in the earnings release, where the full year pricing realization was more around 200 basis points for the enterprise.

正如我們在準備好的評論中所看到的，我們剛剛過去的一年，企業的全年定價實現量超過了 200 個基點。

Of which hyperinflationary and Argentina specifically contributed on the year about 300 basis points.

其中惡性通貨膨脹和阿根廷特別對全年貢獻了約300個基點。

Across 2024, that number came down every quarter.

到 2024 年，這個數字每季都會下降。

So from a 450-basis point contribution in Q1, that came down to 160 basis point contribution in Q4.

因此，從第一季的 450 個基點貢獻到第四季的 160 個基點貢獻，這一數字下降了。

That coincides with inflation.

這與通貨膨脹相吻合。

They bring off in Argentina as the macroeconomic situation has been stabilizing, driven by the government actions that were taking about a year ago.

這些措施在阿根廷取得成功，是因為在政府大約一年前採取的行動的推動下，宏觀經濟情勢已趨穩定。

In fact, as we go into this year, whereas Argentina contributed on the full year, about 300 basis points to tough time growth and pricing in 2024.

事實上，隨著今年的到來，阿根廷為 2024 年艱難時期的成長和定價貢獻了約 300 個基點。

We only expect around 30 basis points tops in or less in 2025.

我們預計 2025 年最高漲幅僅為 30 個基點或更低。

So in essence, pricing is not going to be a driver of growth in 2025.

因此從本質上講，定價不會成為 2025 年成長的驅動力。

It's really going to be a volume and mix-led growth.

這確實將是一個由數量和組合主導的成長。

It builds on the transition that occurred in 2024.

它建立在 2024 年發生的轉變的基礎上。

2024 was a year in which volume and mix contributed 1.2 points of growth, volume being 0.8 points or 80 bps.

2024 年是數量和結構貢獻了 1.2 個增長點的一年，其中數量為 0.8 個點或 80 個基點。

And as we had -- and in Q4, that actually accelerated to 1.5% of growth.

正如我們所見—在第四季度，這一成長率實際上加速至 1.5%。

So it will be a volume mix-led growth accompanied by continued gain in market share.

因此，這將是一個由銷售組合主導的成長，同時伴隨著市場份額的持續成長。

For 2024, our weighted average market share was a -- gain was 10 basis points.

到 2024 年，我們的加權平均市佔率將增加 10 個基點。

And we expect that to be at least that or higher as we head into 2025.

我們預計，到 2025 年，這一數字至少會達到這個水平，甚至更高。

Robert Moskow, TD Cowen.

羅伯特·莫斯科（Robert Moskow），TD Cowen。

The productivity savings are really outstanding at 0.9% and it sounds like you're guiding to that again in 2025.

0.9% 的生產力節省確實非常出色，聽起來你在 2025 年會再次實現這一目標。

And I wanted to know, in 2024, did any of that productivity savings help you on pulp costs because it would appear that pulp costs are going higher in '25?

我想知道，在 2024 年，這些生產力節省是否有助於降低紙漿成本，因為看起來 25 年紙漿成本會更高？

Do you have productivity baked in, in your procurement estimates for that and any other commodities?

在針對該商品以及其他商品的採購估算中，是否已經將生產力考慮進去了？

And then secondly, you're confident in your PNOC outlook for '25.

其次，您對 25 年 PNOC 前景充滿信心。

Maybe you can give a little more color on that and how it compares to how you did in '24?

也許您可以對此進行更詳細的說明，並將其與您在 24 年的表現進行比較？

Yes.

是的。

So a few things, Robert.

所以有幾件事，羅伯特。

Yes, we're very pleased with the first year of delivering towards our $3 billion five-year target of productivity, a solid start.

是的，我們對實現 30 億美元五年生產力目標的第一年感到非常高興，這是一個很好的開始。

We stood up our global supply chain organization on July 1, 2024.

我們於2024年7月1日建立了全球供應鏈組織。

And last year, constituted the first year of our transformation of the global supply chain.

去年是我們全球供應鏈轉型的元年。

We did deliver historical high productivity.

我們確實實現了歷史性的高生產力。

And the lion's share of the productivity was on what we call our integrated margin management productivity, which is what we're doing in our manufacturing facilities, largely network optimization, automation as well as value stream.

生產力的最大份額在於我們所謂的綜合利潤管理生產力，這也是我們在製造工廠中所做的事情，主要是網路優化、自動化以及價值流。

In terms of as it relates to pulp and in any productivity-related savings, that's really not the case.

就紙漿和任何與生產力相關的節約而言，事實並非如此。

I mean, we've been managing the commodity basket in a much more proactive manner, not a reactive manner.

我的意思是，我們一直在以更積極主動的方式而不是被動的方式管理商品籃子。

As we've been explaining over the last couple of years, we've been engaging in strategic relationships with our suppliers that have allowed us to manage through the volatility that we would have seen in prior years.

正如我們過去幾年所解釋的那樣，我們一直與供應商建立策略關係，這使我們能夠應對前幾年所看到的波動。

So on that end, as we go into 2025, our expectation is to be in the 5% range of productivity, a tat lower than 5.9%, but solidly within what we consider to be best-in-class levels for 2025.

因此，在進入 2025 年時，我們預計生產力將達到 5% 左右，略低於 5.9%，但穩居我們認為的 2025 年最佳水準之內。

We have a significantly improved cost visibility in the next couple of years or so, and that's part of our integrated margin management approach and the strategies on risk management that we've deployed.

在未來幾年內，我們的成本可見性將顯著提高，這是我們綜合利潤管理方法和我們部署的風險管理策略的一部分。

We are confident in our ability to continue to drive in the mid, long term pricing net of cost that it's at least neutral.

我們有信心，我們有能力繼續推動中長期定價淨成本至少保持中立。

We've seen that play out.

我們已經看到了這一幕。

In fact, it was favorable in 2024.

事實上，2024 年的情況是有利的。

And as we go into 2025, we will continue to hone in our skills for our teams to manage towards a pricing net of cost at least neutral strategy.

隨著我們進入 2025 年，我們將繼續磨練我們的團隊技能，以便管理淨成本定價至少是中性的策略。

Yes.

是的。

Maybe, Rob, I'll just add.

也許吧，羅布，我只是補充一下。

From my view, I'd say our Powering Care strategy is powering what we want to be on algorithm performance.

從我的角度來看，我們的 Powering Care 策略正在為我們想要的演算法效能提供動力。

And I think we feel very good about how our plans line up for this year based on what we're seeing in the current environment.

我認為，根據當前環境，我們對今年的計劃感到非常滿意。

And I think one of the most important thing is we know we're lapping some discrete factors like this big private label exit and the PPE exit and some of the other things.

我認為最重要的事情之一是我們知道我們正在考慮一些離散因素，例如這個大型自有品牌的退出和 PPE 的退出以及其他一些因素。

But we do have very strong visibility into productivity, and we feel great about that.

但我們確實對生產力有很強的洞察力，我們對此感到非常高興。

And that's been the key driver for us to fuel our investment in the business and fuel our bottom line growth.

這是我們推動業務投資和獲利成長的主要動力。

And then commensurately, in last year and this year in this plan, we will continue to invest in pioneering innovation, strong commercial activation to drive volume and mix.

然後相應地，在去年和今年的計劃中，我們將繼續投資於開創性創新和強大的商業激活，以推動銷售和產品組合。

And then on top of that, we're expecting to see some SG&A leverage through our wire for growth initiative this year.

除此之外，我們預計今年透過我們的電匯成長計畫將看到一些銷售、一般和行政費用槓桿。

So again, we're feeling very good about overall the productivity and our visibility into it.

因此，我們對整體生產力和可見性感到非常滿意。

Steve Powers, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的史蒂夫·鮑爾斯。

Just to put a -- I really want to ask about SG&A, but just to put a little fine point on what Rob was asking about.

只是想說——我確實想問一下銷售、一般和行政費用 (SG&A) 問題，但只是想稍微詳細點說明一下 Rob 所問的問題。

So it sounds like the -- on PNOC specifically, just given that it's going to be a volume-driven year on the top line, and I'm assuming there's some cost inflation, it seems like you're going to have to overcome some net negative PNOC on the year.

因此，這聽起來像是——具體到 PNOC，考慮到今年將是銷量驅動的一年，而且我假設成本會有所上漲，似乎你必須克服一些全年淨負 PNOC。

But tell me if that's the wrong read from what you said there?

但請告訴我你所說的內容是否錯誤？

Yes.

是的。

Probably that's not -- probably not what we meant to convey, but maybe -- yes.

這可能不是——可能不是我們想要表達的，但也許——是的。

So maybe just to unpack on costs because I think it's important to give kind of our view on cost for the year.

因此，也許只是討論一下成本，因為我認為給出我們對今年成本的看法很重要。

So we -- in December, we shared that for 2025, we expect the costs to remain relatively muted and manageable.

因此，我們在 12 月表示，預計 2025 年成本將保持相對穩定且可控。

And our expectation for 2025 is that costs will be still elevated.

我們預計 2025 年成本仍將居高不下。

And on an aggregate basis, including currency, we expect to be at around a $200 million level, which is largely in line with what we saw in 2024.

從總體來看，包括匯率因素在內，我們預計該數字將達到 2 億美元左右，與 2024 年的水準基本一致。

So it is within the levels that we would consider manageable and what we've got.

因此，我們認為這處於可控的水平以及我們已經擁有的水平之內。

In terms of pricing net of cost, your specific questions, we still expect our teams to manage pricing that are cost neutral.

就扣除成本後的定價（也就是您提出的具體問題）而言，我們仍然希望我們的團隊能夠管理成本中立的定價。

At times, we will make strategic decisions around price pack architectures or competitive elements where we'll make some tactical investments.

有時，我們會圍繞價格包架構或競爭要素做出策略決策，並進行一些戰術投資。

But it is our expectations that teams will drive, over time, lower total delivered costs.

但我們的期望是，隨著時間的推移，團隊將降低總交付成本。

That's one of the key premises of Powering Care and why we've resegmented the company the way we did it so that we can drive the lowest possible cost in each of our products globally, while we drive the best performing products in each of our categories.

這是 Powering Care 的關鍵前提之一，也是我們重新細分公司的原因，以便我們能夠在全球範圍內以最低的成本實現每種產品的成本，同時在每個類別中推出性能最佳的產品。

That's just to clarify on the PNOC, Steve.

這只是為了澄清一下 PNOC，史蒂夫。

Yes.

是的。

And then maybe, Steve, to start, I'll just pile on.

那也許，史蒂夫，一開始，我就先加入一些內容。

Just to give you some context of how we're thinking about it.

只是為了讓你了解我們對此的看法。

I mean -- and I think we've kind of moved through this period of what we internally call it inflation super cycle, right, where the company took on record inflation over a couple of years.

我的意思是——我認為我們已經經歷了內部稱為通膨超級週期的時期，公司在幾年內承受了創紀錄的通膨。

I think we've moved past that.

我想我們已經超越那個階段了。

And so starting last year, and definitely, this year, we're very, very focused on volume plus mix driven growth.

所以從去年開始，當然還有今年，我們非常非常注重數量加組合驅動的成長。

And then while maintaining PNOC discipline.

然後同時維持 PNOC 紀律。

So that's kind of the thing, which is, hey, we definitely see that pricing to offset inflation or the inflation super cycle has kind of receded as we all expected.

所以情況就是這樣，嘿，我們確實看到，抵消通貨膨脹的定價或通貨膨脹超級週期已經如我們預期的那樣消退。

But we think going forward, and this is what Nelson is trying to communicate, which is maintaining that discipline in PNOC going forward is going to remain important.

但我們認為，展望未來，這也是納爾遜試圖傳達的，那就是，在未來，保持 PNOC 的紀律仍然很重要。

Right now, again, as I just said earlier, we feel like we have good visibility on our costs, but we definitely believe that pricing net of commodity and cost is positive -- or in the -- over the long term.

現在，正如我之前所說，我們覺得我們的成本有很好的透明度，但我們確實相信，扣除商品和成本的定價是積極的——或者從長期來看是積極的。

And then -- so I think we have good visibility on costs and then we have a very good commercial toolkit.

然後 - 所以我認為我們對成本有很好的了解，然後我們有一個非常好的商業工具包。

We've invested a lot in the analytical tools to support our revenue growth management capability, and so we feel confident in that.

我們在分析工具上投入了大量資金來支持我們的收入成長管理能力，因此我們對此充滿信心。

But really the near-term focus is on driving volume and mix through the pioneering innovation and great commercial activation.

但真正的近期重點是透過開創性創新和巨大的商業活化來推動銷售和產品組合。

And just to add there, Steve, keep in mind the productivity plan that we're running right now.

另外，史蒂夫，請記住我們現在正在執行的生產力計劃。

So we expect productivity to also be a contributor and an offset as an integrated part of integrated margin management for this year, at least in the 5% range, which will be another strong year of productivity in 2025.

因此，我們預計，作為今年綜合利潤管理的一個組成部分，生產力也將成為一項貢獻因素和抵消因素，至少在 5% 的範圍內，而 2025 年將是生產力又一個強勁增長的一年。

Yes.

是的。

And actually, that segues into my main question because it feels like this year, a lot of the overall productivity savings that will enable underlying profit growth to hit that high single-digit run rate on a constant currency basis.

實際上，這引出了我的主要問題，因為感覺今年，大量的整體生產力節約將使基礎利潤增長在固定匯率基礎上達到高個位數的運行率。

It seems like a lot of that is going to come from SG&A.

看起來其中很多都將來自銷售、一般和行政費用。

So could you give us a bit more detail on the sources and timing of that productivity, your line of sight to achieving it cleanly and your confidence to be able to kind of get there without having to walk back some of the value-added investments that you made in 2024?

那麼，您能否向我們詳細介紹一下這種生產力的來源和時間，您對實現這一目標的設想，以及您對實現這一目標的信心，而無需放棄一些增值投資？什麼？

Yes.

是的。

Okay, Steve.

好的，史蒂夫。

Maybe I'll start with an overall perspective on marketing and then ask Nelson to comment specifically on the SG&A program.

也許我應該先從行銷的整體角度開始，然後請尼爾森具體評論銷售、一般和行政費用 (SG&A) 計劃。

But I'd say, overall, we're very comfortable with our current investment level in marketing.

但我想說，總的來說，我們對目前的行銷投資水準非常滿意。

We're comfortable investing more to support faster, more profitable growth also, right?

我們也願意投入更多來支持更快、更有利可圖的成長，對嗎？

And to give you a little more perspective, our advertising spend has more than doubled since 2018, and we feel like we've gotten very strong returns on those investments.

為了讓您更全面地了解情況，自 2018 年以來，我們的廣告支出增加了一倍多，我們覺得這些投資獲得了非常豐厚的回報。

We closed last year 2024 at what I would say is a healthy 6.5%.

我們去年 2024 年的收盤價達到了我認為健康的 6.5%。

And Patricia Corsi, our new Chief Growth Officer, she's really, really here focused on helping us become world-class brand storytellers.

我們的新任首席成長長 Patricia Corsi 非常致力於幫助我們成為世界級的品牌故事講述者。

And so under her direction, we're doing a lot of things to improve our creative.

因此，在她的指導下，我們做了很多事情來提高我們的創造力。

One of -- an important one is we're consolidating our agency partners both behind creative and the media side, and that's going to both improve the content that we have and also the efficiency and spending.

其中最重要的一點是，我們正在整合創意和媒體方面的代理商合作夥伴，這不僅會改善我們的內容，還會提高效率和支出。

So with that set up, I'd say we're expecting to spend at a similar level in 2025, and we feel good about that.

因此，有了這個設置，我想說我們預計 2025 年的支出將達到類似的水平，我們對此感到滿意。

And as we drive additional productivity, we're going to continue to look for opportunities to spend more.

隨著我們提高生產力，我們將繼續尋找增加支出的機會。

Yes.

是的。

And as it relates to the overhead savings in particular.

尤其與節省間接費用有關。

When we were at our Investor Day on March 27, we said that our plan was to deliver as we went through our Powering Care program around $200 million of SG&A savings.

在 3 月 27 日的投資者日活動上，我們表示，我們的計劃是在實施 Powering Care 計劃時節省約 2 億美元的銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A)。

And they'd kick in once we were fully operational under our new segment structure.

一旦我們在新的細分結構下全面投入運營，它們就會開始發揮作用。

And that happened in Q4 of 2024.

這發生在 2024 年第四季。

So we went live with the three new segments on October 1, and our organizational changes are pretty much in place as we speak.

因此，我們在10月1日推出了三個新的部分，我們的組織變革也基本上到位。

So we expect those SG&A savings, to your point, to begin to kick in a material manner in 2025, and that's built into our outlook.

因此，正如您所說，我們預計這些銷售、一般和行政費用的節省將在 2025 年開始產生實質作用，這已納入我們的展望中。

So we said it will take us around two years for that to materialize.

所以我們說要實現這個目標大約需要兩年。

So this would be the first of the two years where we would begin to see those savings flowing through.

因此，這將是兩年中我們開始看到這些儲蓄流入的第一年。

And of course, we will make investments as we create space on the P&L, but we expect that to be part of the rationale of why we expect operating margins in 2025 to grow at a faster pace than gross margins.

當然，我們會在損益表上創造空間時進行投資，但我們預期這也是我們預期 2025 年營業利潤率成長速度將快於毛利率的原因之一。

Lauren Lieberman, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的勞倫·利伯曼。

So I wanted to just talk a little bit about sources of growth.

所以我想稍微談談增長源泉。

So a lot of talk so far on the call about pricing, but one thing that stood out to me this quarter was the volume growth.

到目前為止，電話會議上討論了許多有關定價的問題，但本季讓我印象深刻的一件事是銷售量的成長。

And China numbers on Personal Care specifically cited in the release, you also had good volume growth in North America and in Personal Care, in particular.

新聞稿中特別引用了中國個人護理產品的數據，顯示貴公司在北美市場，尤其是個人護理產品的銷售也實現了良好的成長。

But I was curious sort of when we can expect to start to see volume growth coming through from other markets because we're very US and China weighted at the moment?

但我很好奇，我們什麼時候可以預期看到來自其他市場的銷售成長，因為我們目前非常重視美國和中國？

Share gains have continued versus Proctor seemingly in those categories just based on what they've had to say about those businesses.

僅從他們對這些業務的評價來看，在這些類別中，與寶潔相比，其市佔率似乎持續成長。

And so I was just curious if you could talk a little bit about broadening out sources of volume growth in terms of other geographies?

所以我很好奇，您是否可以談談如何擴大其他地區的銷售成長來源？

And just any kind of signs of changes in competitive dynamics that you may or may not be seeing?

您可能看到或沒有看到競爭態勢改變的任何跡象嗎？

Okay.

好的。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for pointing that out, and I'll try to answer it.

謝謝您的指出，我會盡力回答。

I would say goes back to maybe a Board meeting we had probably about five years ago, where our discussion internally in the Board meeting was, hey, if there are markets we have to win, it is the US and it's China.

我想說這可以追溯到大約五年前的一次董事會會議，當時我們在董事會會議的內部討論是，如果我們必須贏得市場，那就是美國和中國。

And those are our largest markets and are the biggest categories in the world.

這些是我們最大的市場，也是世界上最大的類別。

And so I'd say the good news is I think we've put our strategic focus there, and it's working, right?

所以我想說的好消息是，我認為我們已經把戰略重點放在那裡，而且它正在發揮作用，對嗎？

And so we're really proud of that progress that the organization is making.

因此，我們為該組織所取得的進步感到非常自豪。

I'd say, though, maybe I'll point out, Lauren, I do think it's a little bit broader than what you're seeing in the US and China.

不過，我想說，勞倫，也許我應該指出，我確實認為它比你在美國和中國看到的要廣泛一些。

Maybe I'll just give you some facts.

也許我只需要給你一些事實。

On the share front, we're making progress.

在共享方面，我們正在取得進展。

And I am pleased with our progress but not satisfied.

我對我們的進步感到高興但並不滿足。

Our focus continues to be building superior propositions at every run of the good, better, best ladder.

我們的重點始終是不斷建構更卓越的主張，不斷邁向好、更好、最好。

And I think that's a unique kind of positioning for us that I think we're really happy to be in that space.

我認為這對我們來說是一種獨特的定位，我們很高興能夠處於這個領域。

As you may have seen, our 2024 weighted share was up about 10 basis points and up and even in about half of our cohorts, but we had very strong improvement in North America with the trend improving as the year went on, especially in diapers, adult and facial tissue.

正如你可能看到的，我們2024 年的加權份額上升了約10 個基點，甚至在我們大約一半的同類產品中上升，但我們在北美取得了非常強勁的進步，隨著時間的推移，趨勢有所改善，特別是在尿布方面，成人紙巾及面紙。

In North America, Personal Care was up 80 basis points in weighted share.

在北美，個人護理的加權份額上漲了 80 個基點。

Consumer overall was up about 10%.

整體消費上漲約 10%。

And so -- and importantly, in North America, we were up in seven out of eight -- up or even in seven of eight categories.

因此 — — 重要的是，在北美，我們在八個類別中有七個實現了上升 — — 甚至在八個類別中有七個實現了上升。

And then in our focus markets, we felt like there were some pretty solid gains beyond just China.

然後，我們感覺，在我們的重點市場中，除了中國之外，還取得了相當可觀的成長。

Of course, leading off with China, Huggies was up 200 basis points in the quarter.

當然，以中國市場為首，好奇在本季上漲了 200 個基點。

But in the UK, for our third consecutive year, Andrex, which is the big bath tissue brand in the UK, was up another 100 basis points.

但在英國，英國最大的衛生紙品牌 Andrex 的銷售量連續第三年上漲了 100 個基點。

Kleenex in the UK was up almost 400 basis points in share.

英國的 Kleenex 股價上漲了近 400 個基點。

In the US, Kleenex was up almost 400 basis points as well.

在美國，Kleenex 的股價也上漲了近 400 個基點。

And then we had share growth in Australia and Indonesia Feminine Care.

然後我們在澳洲和印尼的女性護理領域實現了份額成長。

And then -- and importantly, in diapers in South Korea, which is a big business for us, we were up almost 400 basis points as well.

然後——重要的是，我們的韓國尿布業務（這對我們來說是一筆大生意）也上漲了近 400 個基點。

So I think we're seeing pockets of growth.

所以我認為我們看到了成長的跡象。

The thing that maybe you're pointing to, Lauren, is and it does kind of -- it's why we're doing the reorganization that we're doing.

勞倫，你可能指出的是，這確實是我們重組的原因。

I mean the whole point of our new operating model is we want to move faster to implement our global growth playbook.

我的意思是，我們新營運模式的全部意義在於我們希望更快地實施我們的全球成長計畫。

And we think this rewiring is going to better leverage our scale, brings the best of KC faster and better than any of the individual markets can do on their own.

我們認為，這種重新佈局將更好地利用我們的規模，比任何單一市場單獨行動更快、更好地發揮 KC 的優勢。

We -- as I mentioned in our Investor Day, we have great technology in our portfolio that most of the world hasn't seen yet.

正如我在投資者日所提到的，我們的投資組合中擁有世界上大多數人尚未見過的偉大技術。

And so that's kind of why we're doing this reorganization.

這就是我們進行這次重組的原因。

And from my chair, and I can see what all the teams are doing around the world.

從我的座位上，我可以看到世界各地的所有團隊正在做什麼。

I'm seeing the benefits of these focus segments, and I'm seeing like us move kind of great ideas faster into different markets.

我看到了這些重點細分市場的好處，也看到我們能夠更快地將偉大的想法轉移到不同的市場。

It's also why we're seeing the productivity spike up because we're bringing kind of the big supply chain ideas faster around different parts of the organization.

這也是我們看到生產力飆升的原因，因為我們正在將大型供應鏈理念更快地推廣到組織的不同部分。

Bonnie Herzog, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的邦妮·赫爾佐格 (Bonnie Herzog)。

I was hoping to get some color on phasing this year.

我希望能在今年的分階段得到一些進展。

There are several moving parts, including the impact from potential retailer destocking, FX, your private label exit, et cetera.

有幾個活動因素，包括潛在零售商去庫存、外匯、自有品牌退出等的影響。

So

所以

(technical difficulty) --

（技術難度）——

Bonnie, I think we just lost you.

邦妮，我想我們剛剛失去你了。

I don't know if we just left.

我不知道我們是否剛離開。

Holly, are we still on?

霍莉，我們還繼續嗎？

Yes, Bonnie, your line is live.

是的，邦妮，您的線路已通電。

Maybe, Nelson, do you want to answer phasing and then we can follow up and she gets back.

也許，尼爾森，你想回答分階段問題，然後我們可以跟進，然後她會回來。

Okay.

好的。

So let me unpack 2024 and the phasing that we saw because clearly, in 2024, we did see a series of onetime factors that led to sales not necessarily tracking what you would have seen on the consumer offtake, which by the way, for the year in North America was higher than our sell-in.

因此，讓我來分析一下2024 年以及我們所看到的階段，因為很明顯，在2024 年，我們確實看到了一系列一次性因素，導致銷售額不一定能追蹤到消費者購買量，順便說一句，就這一年而言北美的銷量高於我們的銷售額。

And it also had an impact on the phasing of earnings across the year.

這也對全年獲利的分階段產生了影響。

I do think that it is -- we need to recognize what our teams did across the year to manage through all these factors still managed to deliver a solid full year that was ahead of our algorithm that we had set out back at the beginning of the year.

我確實認為是這樣的——我們需要認識到我們的團隊在過去一年中做了哪些工作，以應對所有這些因素，仍然成功地創造了一個堅實的全年業績，這超出了我們在年初制定的演算法。

The -- by far, the most notable item that we faced last year was the retail inventory reductions largely in the US.

到目前為止，我們去年面臨的最顯著問題是零售庫存減少（主要是美國）。

And as a reminder, the impact from changes in inventory on organic growth in any given period is really a change on change.

需要提醒的是，任何特定時期內庫存變化對有機成長的影響實際上都是變化之上的變化。

And it's a function of shipments versus consumption in the prior year versus what's transcended this year.

它是去年出貨量與消費量以及今年的出貨量之間的函數。

In 2024, between the restocking that we saw in 2023, and as a reminder, in Q3 of 2023 is when our supply chain largely normalized in the US and got back to full supply.

2024 年，也就是我們在 2023 年看到的補貨期間，提醒一下，2023 年第三季度，我們的供應鏈在美國基本上恢復正常並恢復了全面供應。

And the trade destock that we saw throughout 2024 as our service levels came up to the necessary levels where we needed to be operated that led to a total enterprise impact on the year of around 60 basis points to full year sales.

隨著我們的服務水準達到我們需要營運的必要水平，我們在 2024 年全年看到了貿易去庫存，這對全年銷售額產生了約 60 個基點的企業總體影響。

And it was largely concentrated in the first three quarters of the year, but it caused some hiccups at least on the reported organic growth that you would have seen, not on the consumption.

這種影響主要集中在今年前三個季度，但至少對報告的有機成長造成了一些影響，但對消費沒有影響。

If we think about 2025, we did the phasing, you were asking, Bonnie, a few things to keep in mind.

如果我們考慮 2025 年，我們會進行分階段實施，邦妮，你問了一些需要記住的事情。

The -- assuming that shipments are in line with our consumption for the year, we should see less than a 40 basis point tailwind in 2025 versus 2024.

假設出貨量與我們當年的消費量一致，那麼與 2024 年相比，2025 年的順風將不足 40 個基點。

In light of the changes in the trade stocks that we lap, so that would be built in into our outlook.

鑑於我們所持有的貿易庫存的變化，這將被納入我們的展望中。

And the important thing to highlight is that our growth is going to be volume and mix-driven all across the year.

需要強調的是，我們的成長全年都將由數量和組合驅動。

So that's one of the bits to keep in mind as you look at the phasing.

因此，這是您在觀察分階段時需要牢記的一點。

We are planning to build on share momentum, which we saw in 2024.

我們計劃延續 2024 年所見的股價動能。

And again, as a reminder, that was a 10 basis point share gain movement gain that we saw in 2024, and we expect that to be at least at that level, if not to accelerate in our outlook.

再次提醒一下，這是我們在 2024 年看到的 10 個基點的股價上漲走勢，我們預計至少會達到這個水平，如果不是在我們的展望中加速的話。

In terms of overall P&L, we expect that revenue, sales to be largely evenly distributed first half, second half.

就整體損益而言，我們預計上半年和下半年的營收和銷售額將大致平均分佈。

And our view on profits is more or less the same as well.

我們對利潤的看法也大致相同。

We expect that to be more evenly distributed in 2025 than what you would have seen in 2024.

我們預計，2025 年的分佈將比 2024 年更加均勻。

All right.

好的。

I don't know if you can hear me, but thank you.

我不知道你是否聽得到我說話，不過還是謝謝你。

Yes, we got you back.

是的，我們救你回來了。

Thank you, Bonnie.

謝謝你，邦妮。

Not sure if you want to ask anything else?

不確定您是否還想問其他問題？

No, I think that covers it.

不，我想這就涵蓋了。

I appreciate it.

我很感激。

Anna Lizzul, Bank of America.

美國銀行的安娜‧利祖爾 (Anna Lizzul)。

In the prepared remarks, you mentioned that in International Personal Care, you're going to continue to be choiceful about the markets where you invest.

在準備好的演講中，您提到，在國際個人護理方面，您將繼續選擇投資市場。

You had exited markets like Nigeria.

你已經退出尼日利亞等市場。

Just as you look at the business now, are there any other markets or regions where this might also be the case?

就您現在的業務來看，還有其他市場或地區可能也會出現這種情況嗎？

And then separately, in Professional, this picked up nicely in Q4.

然後分別在專業領域，這一數字在第四季度呈現良好回升。

Just wondering if you can talk more about the momentum that you're seeing there?

只是想知道您是否可以進一步談談您在那裡看到的勢頭？

And any other color on volume expectations here for 2025?

對 2025 年的銷售預期還有其他資訊嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I'd say overall, we did have a number of business exits, some were business lines like the private label contract that we talked about, some where the PPE business that we talked about, some -- we had a couple of markets, Nigeria was one of them.

我想說的是，總的來說，我們確實有一些業務退出，有些是我們談到的自有品牌合約等業務線，有些是我們談到的PPE 業務，有些——我們有幾個市場，尼日利亞就是其中之一。

Bolivia, another.

另一個是玻利維亞。

And so I'd say, overall, we feel very good about our portfolio.

所以我想說，總的來說，我們對我們的投資組合非常滿意。

We feel good about all the categories we're in, but we are taking steps to make sure that all of our categories can continue to be robust and predictable contributors to growth in our returns.

我們對所涉足的所有類別都感到滿意，但我們正在採取措施確保所有類別都能繼續成為我們回報成長的強勁且可預測的貢獻者。

So that said, where we don't see a right to win, I think you'll see with our Brazilian tissue business, we did make a different kind of choice to optimize our participation.

所以說，雖然我們沒有權利獲勝，但我想你會看到，在我們的巴西紙巾業務中，我們確實做出了不同的選擇來優化我們的參與。

We'll continue to be very disciplined about that.

我們將繼續嚴格遵守這項規定。

Overall, though, we're going to be very disciplined and methodical about how we approach that.

總的來說，我們將非常嚴謹、有條不紊地處理這個問題。

And then with regard to Professional, yes, we feel very good about the overall position that we're in on professional globally.

然後關於專業方面，是的，我們對我們在全球專業領域的整體地位感到非常滿意。

And I think I did mention there was a little bit of softness in the washroom business in North America.

我想我確實提到過北美的洗手間業務有些疲軟。

I think our team has put the right plans in place for this year, and we expect that to continue to improve.

我認為我們的團隊為今年制定了正確的計劃，我們希望該計劃能繼續改善。

And then internationally, I think we've -- we feel like we're making the right steps, growing the volume, growing the share and driving that business in the right direction.

然後從國際上來看，我認為我們——我們覺得我們正在採取正確的措施，擴大銷售，提高份額，並推動業務朝著正確的方向發展。

Peter Grom, UBS.

瑞銀的 Peter Grom。

So I guess I was just -- I was hoping to get some more color on just kind of something you outlined in the prepared remarks, just the lower frequency of product used in due to consumer pressures in Latin America and parts of Asia.

所以我想我只是——我希望對您在準備好的發言中所概述的內容進行更多的說明，即由於拉丁美洲和亞洲部分地區的消費者壓力導致產品使用頻率較低。

Can you just unpack that a bit?

能稍微解釋一下嗎？

I mean is that like a broad-based comment?

我的意思是，這是一個廣泛的評論嗎？

Is that something you're seeing across all CPG category?

這是您在所有 CPG 類別中看到的現象嗎？

Or is that a dynamic that's more specific to the categories where you compete?

或者這是更具體地針對您所競爭的類別的動態？

Well, I'm not looking at the categories in which we don't compete that closely anymore.

嗯，我不再關注我們不再那麼激烈競爭的類別了。

So I'll confine my remarks to kind of what I'm seeing within our walls.

因此，我的評論將僅限於我所看到的情況。

But I would say, it's an ongoing kind of, I would say, dynamic in our categories globally.

但我想說，這是我們全球產品類別中持續存在的動態。

And it happens more in countries that have what we would characterize as informal economies where people, let's say, in a market like Peru, people are paid on -- I think it's something like 80% of the population is paid on a daily basis, right?

這種現像在我們稱之為非正規經濟的國家更為常見，例如在秘魯這樣的市場，人們的工資是按天支付的——我認為大約 80% 的人口的工資是按天支付的，正確的？

And so when you have that -- so what happens -- and this happened during COVID, and we're seeing it now, when economic conditions toughen and some people are working less, right, or earning less, the spending moves in that direction because there's no other choice.

所以當你有這種情況時——會發生什麼事——這在新冠疫情期間就發生過，我們現在也看到，當經濟狀況變得嚴峻，有些人工作減少，或者收入減少時，支出就會朝著這個方向發展因為沒有其他選擇。

And so what we -- what happens -- and the reason why it's probably a little bit more unique to our categories is because, let's say, on average, people use four to five diapers a day.

那麼，我們 — — 發生了什麼事 — — 以及它在我們的類別中可能更獨特的原因，是因為，比如說，平均而言，人們每天使用四到五塊尿布。

If they don't have the money, they still want to be in the category, so they don't just exit the category, but they'll -- instead of using five, they'll go to three, something along those lines.

如果他們沒有錢，他們仍然希望留在這個類別中，所以他們不會直接退出這個類別，而是——他們不會使用五個，而是使用三個，類似這樣的。

And so, we see that when in informal economies where economic conditions toughened a little bit, and notably, that's been in pockets of Latin America and pockets of Southeast Asia more recently we see that type of behavior.

因此，我們看到，當非正規經濟體的經濟狀況稍微變得嚴峻時，尤其是最近在拉丁美洲和東南亞的部分地區，我們就會看到這種行為。

And it happens year-to-year, but I kind of mentioned it because it's happening now and our teams are working through it.

這種事年復一年地發生，但我之所以提到它，是因為它現在就發生，我們的團隊正在努力解決它。

No, that's really helpful.

不，這確實很有幫助。

And then just maybe a follow-up just on Bonnie's question on the phasing.

然後也許只是對 Bonnie 關於分階段的問題進行後續跟進。

Totally hear you just 50-50 just in terms of profitability earnings.

完全聽你所說，就獲利能力收益而言，比例僅為 50-50。

But in terms of growth, it's a pretty different trajectory first half versus second half.

但從成長方面來看，上半年和下半年的軌跡截然不同。

So maybe just walk through that a little bit?

所以也許我們可以稍微討論一下這個問題？

And I guess maybe what's the degree of confidence?

我猜想信心程度可能是多少？

Or maybe said another way, what's the cushion you've embedded in the back of outlook should some of these external variables like inflation or demand move against you?

或者換句話說，如果通貨膨脹或需求等外部變數對你不利，你在前景背後嵌入的緩衝是什麼？

Yes, Peter.

是的，彼得。

So let me provide a little bit more color.

所以讓我提供更多一些內容。

So a few things.

有幾件事。

For -- as I said and we've put in our prepared remarks, we expect the year to be around 50-50 first half, second half.

正如我所說，並且我們已經在準備好的評論中提到，我們預計今年上半年和下半年的成長率將在 50-50 左右。

In terms of growth year-on-year, I mean, it's really against the base.

就同​​比增長而言，我的意思是，這確實是違反基數的。

And we will be lapping a stronger base especially particularly in Q1, which is our strongest quarter of the year last year.

我們將建立一個更強大的基礎，特別是在第一季度，這是我們去年最強勁的季度。

So that's something that, again, as you think about it, that's -- that will be having an impact on what you see as the growth.

所以，當你再次思考這個問題時，你會發現，這將對你所看到的成長產生影響。

So that will play a factor into it.

所以這將會起到一定作用。

In terms of the pricing, as I stated before, pricing has been subsided -- subsiding over the course of last year.

就定價而言，正如我之前所說，定價已經下降 - 在去年有所下降。

And this year is really going to be all about volume and mix.

今年的重點確實是數量和組合。

Pricing as a whole is largely expected to be flat.

總體而言，預計定價基本持平。

That's what we've projected as of late with only max at this moment, modeled 30 basis points of contribution from hyperinflationary economies to the enterprise.

這是我們最近的預測，目前的最大值是，模擬了惡性通膨經濟體對企業的 30 個基點的貢獻。

So that's what would play out in terms of what we're projecting at this stage.

這就是我們現階段預測的結果。

Maybe we'll take one more question.

也許我們還要回答一個問題。

.

。

Korinne Wolfmeyer, Piper Sandler.

科琳·沃爾夫邁耶，派珀·桑德勒。

I was wondering if you can maybe walk us through in a little bit more detail the nuances around the gross margin expectations for 2025 and how should we be thinking about the expansion over the course of the year?

我想知道您是否可以向我們更詳細地介紹 2025 年毛利率預期的細節，以及我們應該如何考慮今年的擴張？

And what are the different dynamics to be thinking about in '25 versus 2024?

那麼 2025 年和 2024 年需要考慮哪些不同的動態呢？

And then as we -- as that flow down to the operating margin line, how should we think about the cadence of marketing and ad spend over the course of the year?

然後，隨著我們 — — 隨著這一數字下降到營業利潤線，我們應該如何考慮全年行銷和廣告支出的節奏？

Sure.

當然。

So a few things.

有幾件事。

On gross margin, over the last two years, we were very pleased with the job our teams have done in expanding margins.

就毛利率而言，過去兩年來，我們對團隊在擴大利潤率方面所做的工作感到非常滿意。

As a reminder, gross margin expanded in 2023 by roughly 300, 310 basis points and last year, 200 basis points.

提醒一下，2023 年的毛利率將擴大約 300、310 個基點，去年則擴大了 200 個基點。

On operating profit margin in each of the last two years, we expanded the margin by around 150 basis points.

在過去兩年中，我們每年的營業利潤率都提高了約 150 個基點。

Obviously, at a lower pace than gross margin because we accelerated investments, particularly behind the brands.

顯然，成長速度低於毛利率，因為我們加快了投資，特別是在品牌背後的投資。

And between 2023, 2024, we stepped up investments by around $250 million in advertising and support of our brands, which is what's supporting our innovation that's helped us turn into a volume mix growth led year-end 2024 and what we expect for the year.

在2023 年至2024 年期間，我們在廣告和品牌支援方面增加了約2.5 億美元的投資，這支持了我們的創新，並幫助我們在2024 年底轉變為以銷售組合成長為主導的公司，這也符合我們對今年的預期。

Going into 2025, we still project gross margins to expand, albeit at a slower pace than what we saw in 2023 and 2024, driven by, one, we still expect to drive productivity.

進入 2025 年，我們仍預期毛利率將擴大，儘管速度將低於 2023 年和 2024 年，但其推動力之一是，我們仍預期生產力將提高。

As we said, we -- it's the second year of our program, and it will be in the 5% range. a bit lower than what we had in 2024, but still solid delivery of productivity.

正如我們所說，這是我們計劃的第二年，成長率將保持在 5% 左右。比 2024 年的水準略低，但仍能實現穩定的生產力。

The contribution from pricing is largely going to be muted as we stated.

正如我們所說，定價的貢獻將基本上被減弱。

So that's playing into it. but still, we expect gross margin to expand.

這確實起到了作用。但我們仍然預期毛利率將會擴大。

And then we -- and we will be also making investments in our supply chain. 2025 will mark an acceleration in the transformation of the supply chain with step-up projects on network optimization, and in automation in particular.

然後我們——我們還將對我們的供應鏈進行投資。 2025年，供應鏈轉型將加速，網路優化和自動化方面的專案將進一步推進。

So we'll be reinvesting a significant amount of the productivity into our operations and hence, why we expect the gross margins to still expand but not at the pace of what we saw in the prior two years.

因此，我們將把大量的生產力重新投資到我們的營運中，因此，我們預計毛利率仍會擴大，但不會像前兩年那樣快速成長。

Then as we go into operating margin, it's really about the leverage that we'll have because the SG&A savings, the $200 million that we've planned for as part of our Powering Care program, will start to kick in, in a meaningful manner in 2025 and 2026 as our new organizational structure is already in place as we exited the year.

然後，當我們談到營業利潤率時，這實際上與我們將擁有的槓桿有關，因為我們計劃作為 Powering Care 計劃的一部分節省的 2 億美元將開始以有意義的方式發揮作用我們在2025 年和2026 年制定了新的組織結構。

So that's why at this stage, we expect operating profit margins to grow ahead of gross margins, which we still expect them to expand, but at a slower pace.

因此，我們預計現階段營業利潤率將超過毛利率，儘管我們仍預期毛利率會擴大，但速度會有所放緩。

All right.

好的。

Well, thanks, everybody, for joining us.

好吧，感謝大家加入我們。

If you have any follow-up questions, we'll be available all day to take them.

如果您有任何後續問題，我們將全天為您解答。

So thanks again, and have a great day.

再次感謝，祝您有愉快的一天。

This concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time.

今天的會議到此結束，各位現在可以掛斷電話了。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。