金百利克拉克 (KMB) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Kimberly-Clark First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Christina Cheng. Ma'am, the floor is yours.

大家好，歡迎來到金佰利 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）現在我很高興將發言權交給主持人 Christina Cheng。女士，地板是你的。

Welcome, everyone, to our first quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Before we begin, please note today's presentation will include forward-looking statements. Our actual results may vary materially from those expressed or implied in our forward-looking statements, and you should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings for a list of factors that could cause our actual results to deviate materially from our expectations.

歡迎大家參加我們的 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。在我們開始之前，請注意今天的演講將包括前瞻性陳述。我們的實際結果可能與我們前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異，您不應過分依賴任何前瞻性陳述。請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，了解可能導致我們的實際結果與我們的預期存在重大偏差的一系列因素。

Our remarks today refer to adjusted results, which exclude certain items described in our news release. We use non-GAAP financial measures to help investors understand our ongoing business performance. Please consult our press release for a discussion of our non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to comparable GAAP financial measures. We have published supplemental material, which can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website.

我們今天的評論指的是調整後的結果，不包括我們新聞稿中描述的某些項目。我們使用非 GAAP 財務指標來幫助投資者了解我們持續的業務績效。請查閱我們的新聞稿，了解我們的非 GAAP 財務措施和與可比 GAAP 財務措施的調節情況的討論。我們已經發布了補充材料，可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。

Participating in today's call are our Chairman and CEO, Michael Hsu; and our Chief Financial Officer, Nelson Urdaneta. Mike will start the discussion with our strategic priorities and provide an overview of our performance for the quarter. Nelson will provide a detailed discussion on our Q1 results and our outlook before we open the floor for Q&A.

參加今天電話會議的有我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Michael Hsu；以及我們的首席財務官 Nelson Urdaneta。 Mike 將開始討論我們的戰略重點，並概述我們本季度的表現。在我們開始問答環節之前，尼爾森將詳細討論我們第一季度的業績和我們的前景。

With that, I turn the call over to Mike.

有了這個，我把電話轉給了邁克。

Thank you, Christina. I'm encouraged by our solid start to the year. We delivered organic growth of 5%, cycling 10% growth in the year ago quarter. Category growth remained healthy, pricing execution was strong and costs have begun to stabilize. These primary factors enabled us to continue improving gross margin, resulting in a 25% increase in adjusted operating profit and a 24% increase in adjusted earnings per share.

謝謝你，克里斯蒂娜。今年的良好開端令我感到鼓舞。我們實現了 5% 的有機增長，在去年同期循環增長 10%。品類增長保持健康，定價執行力強，成本開始趨於穩定。這些主要因素使我們能夠繼續提高毛利率，使調整後營業利潤增長 25%，調整後每股收益增長 24%。

Given our Q1 performance and increasing confidence in our underlying operating plan assumptions, we're raising our 2023 EPS outlook to 6% to 10% growth. Margin recovery continues to be a top priority, and I'm pleased with the strong progress we're making. This quarter, we expanded gross margin by 340 basis points versus a year ago, building on our momentum from the second half of 2022. While we're encouraged with our progress, we're still operating in a challenging environment, input costs have stabilized but continue to trade well above 2019 levels.

鑑於我們第一季度的業績以及對我們基本運營計劃假設的信心增強，我們將 2023 年每股盈利增長預期上調至 6% 至 10%。利潤率恢復仍然是重中之重，我對我們取得的巨大進展感到高興。本季度，我們在 2022 年下半年的勢頭基礎上，將毛利率比一年前提高了 340 個基點。雖然我們對取得的進展感到鼓舞，但我們仍在充滿挑戰的環境中運營，投入成本已經穩定但繼續遠高於 2019 年的水平。

With adjusted gross margins nearly 200 basis points below pre-pandemic levels, we'll continue to operate with cost and financial discipline. We're leaning harder into productivity and taking aggressive action to secure supply to better meet the needs of our customers. We remain committed to returning our margins to historic levels and eventually expanding from there.

由於調整後的毛利率比大流行前水平低近 200 個基點，我們將繼續在成本和財務紀律的情況下運營。我們更加努力地提高生產力，並採取積極行動來確保供應，以更好地滿足客戶的需求。我們仍然致力於將我們的利潤率恢復到歷史水平，並最終從那裡擴大。

We've taken a thoughtful and holistic approach to mitigating inflationary pressures, carefully balancing price realization with our focus on offering a superior value proposition. This is to enable us to meet our enduring goal of growing market share. In Q1, we continue to gain or hold share in approximately 50% of our personal care cohorts. We've invested in building strong revenue growth management capability, and that has been critical to our agile and effective price deployment globally. Category growth has remained healthy and broad-based as the elasticity impact on volume continues to be somewhat muted. This reflects the essential nature of the categories we lead.

我們採取了一種深思熟慮的整體方法來減輕通脹壓力，謹慎地平衡價格實現與我們對提供卓越價值主張的關注。這是為了使我們能夠實現增加市場份額的持久目標。在第一季度，我們繼續獲得或持有約 50% 的個人護理產品份額。我們已經投資建立強大的收入增長管理能力，這對我們在全球範圍內靈活有效的價格部署至關重要。由於彈性對銷量的影響繼續有所減弱，品類增長一直保持健康和廣泛。這反映了我們領導的類別的本質。

While our categories continue to grow, we see bifurcation in consumer demand. We've observed resilience in higher income developed markets like the U.S. but also increasing demand for value in lower income geographies, especially within D&E markets. We're meeting our consumers where they need us. As category leaders, we have a broad offering that spans value to premium. While we're continuing to see momentum in the premium tiers of our business, we're accommodating tighter budgets and more rapidly cascading innovation and product features through our portfolio, including our value offerings.

雖然我們的類別繼續增長，但我們看到消費者需求出現分歧。我們觀察到美國等高收入發達市場的彈性，但低收入地區對價值的需求也在增加，尤其是在 D&E 市場。我們在消費者需要我們的地方與他們會面。作為類別領導者，我們提供從價值到溢價的廣泛產品。在我們繼續看到高端業務發展勢頭的同時，我們正在通過我們的產品組合（包括我們的價值產品）來適應更緊縮的預算和更快速地級聯創新和產品功能。

Our brands offer excellent value. For parents economizing through usage, superior products like GoodNites' excel overnight diapers enable their children to get a better night sleep with 35% less leaks. GoodNites serves an important need and we're stepping up our brand communications with breakthrough campaigns that highlight the superior performance and value of our offering.

我們的品牌提供卓越的價值。對於通過使用節省開支的父母來說，GoodNites 的 excel 隔夜尿布等優質產品可以讓他們的孩子睡得更好，尿漏減少 35%。 GoodNites 滿足了一個重要的需求，我們正在通過突出我們產品的卓越性能和價值的突破性活動來加強我們的品牌傳播。

Advantage product technologies are key to our brand value proposition, and over the past few years, concerted investment in innovation has resulted in an exciting pipeline that will help us elevate and expand our categories. I'll highlight a few that you'll see later this quarter. We're refreshing Cottonelle Ultra Comfort and Ultra Clean in North America behind a powerful insight. Half of the users in the category are dissatisfied with their existing "soft and strong bath tissue." We're focused on delivering a superior clean and will launch this initiative with some fairly provocative advertising that highlights down there care and we're talking about the real down there issues that we all face. Our suite of products will help address these unmet needs.

優勢產品技術是我們品牌價值主張的關鍵，在過去幾年中，對創新的一致投資帶來了令人興奮的管道，這將幫助我們提升和擴展我們的類別。我將重點介紹您將在本季度晚些時候看到的一些內容。我們憑藉強大的洞察力在北美刷新 Cottonelle Ultra Comfort 和 Ultra Clean。該類別中有一半的用戶對他們現有的“柔軟而結實的衛生紙”不滿意。我們專注於提供卓越的清潔服務，並將通過一些相當具有煽動性的廣告來啟動這項計劃，這些廣告突出了“地下護理”，我們正在談論我們都面臨的真正的“地下”問題。我們的產品套件將幫助解決這些未滿足的需求。

In China, we're launching Kotex Polar Night, our best-ever overnight feminine pad. Polar night offers superior protection from back leaks, one of the biggest issues for overnight users. Internationally, K-C Professional is debuting our new ICON collection, our most advanced towel dispensing system. ICON has fully customizable panels and ultra-high reliability, enabling end users to be more productive with labor and waste. ICON has been a hit in North America, and we are excited to roll it around the world.

在中國，我們推出了 Kotex Polar Night，這是我們有史以來最好的隔夜女性衛生巾。 Polar night 提供卓越的防回漏保護，這是夜間用戶面臨的最大問題之一。在國際上，K-C Professional 推出了我們全新的 ICON 系列，這是我們最先進的毛巾分配系統。 ICON 具有完全可定制的面板和超高可靠性，使最終用戶能夠在減少勞動力和浪費的情況下提高生產力。 ICON 在北美大受歡迎，我們很高興能將它推向全世界。

We have more innovation to launch later this year, including exciting news on Huggies. Our teams are working hard on an innovation pipeline. We're confident we'll bring more value to our consumers while elevating our categories and expanding our markets.

我們將在今年晚些時候推出更多創新產品，包括關於好奇的激動人心的消息。我們的團隊正在努力打造一條創新渠道。我們有信心在提升品類和拓展市場的同時，為消費者帶來更多價值。

In closing, we are encouraged by our strong start to the year and our momentum on the top and bottom line. We serve essential categories and demand for our brands remains healthy. We have a long runway of growth ahead of us, and we're committed to delivering balanced and sustainable growth to create long-term value for all of our stakeholders.

最後，我們對今年的強勁開局以及我們在頂線和底線的勢頭感到鼓舞。我們服務於基本類別，對我們品牌的需求保持健康。我們面前有一條漫長的增長道路，我們致力於實現平衡和可持續的增長，為我們所有的利益相關者創造長期價值。

So now I'll turn it over to Nelson.

所以現在我將把它交給尼爾森。

Thanks, Mike. I'm pleased to report a solid start to the year. First quarter net sales were $5.2 billion, up 2% year-over-year. Organic sales increased 5% compared to last year's 10% increase. On a 2-year basis, organic sales growth was consistent across all 3 segments, with approximately 8% average growth for the company. Strong revenue growth management delivered favorable price and mix benefits with a better-than-expected elasticity impact on volume.

謝謝，邁克。我很高興地報告這一年的良好開端。第一季度淨銷售額為 52 億美元，同比增長 2%。與去年 10% 的增幅相比，有機銷售額增長了 5%。在 2 年的基礎上，所有 3 個部門的有機銷售增長是一致的，公司的平均增長率約為 8%。強大的收入增長管理帶來了優惠的價格和混合效益，對銷量的彈性影響好於預期。

Organic growth for our Personal Care business, representing approximately half of the company's revenue, grew 3% with a healthy contribution from price and mix and healthy underlying consumption. Growth was negatively impacted by approximately 1 percentage point by the exit of a private label contract in North America. All Personal Care major geographies contributed to organic growth, after lapping a particularly strong Q1 last year, with North America setting a new quarterly sales record. Feminine care and adult care grew at healthy rates, and we continue to focus on the tremendous growth opportunities created by the aging population and ongoing innovation in women's health.

我們的個人護理業務的有機增長約占公司收入的一半，增長了 3%，這得益於價格和組合以及健康的基礎消費的健康貢獻。北美自有品牌合同的退出對增長造成了大約 1 個百分點的負面影響。在去年第一季度特別強勁之後，所有個人護理主要地區都為有機增長做出了貢獻，其中北美創下了新的季度銷售記錄。女性護理和成人護理以健康的速度增長，我們繼續關注人口老齡化和女性健康領域不斷創新所創造的巨大增長機會。

In baby and child care, gains from product innovation moderated the impact of lower birth rates in China and South Korea. Operating profit for the segment improved 3% in the first quarter. We are confident our strategy to address significant unmet needs will continue to unlock a long runway of growth for our Personal Care business.

在嬰兒和兒童護理方面，產品創新帶來的收益緩和了中國和韓國低出生率的影響。第一季度該部門的營業利潤增長了 3%。我們相信，我們解決重大未滿足需求的戰略將繼續為我們的個人護理業務開啟長期增長之路。

Organic growth in consumer tissue was 7% with broad-based growth across all geographies. We continue to improve the profitability of our tissue business, with operating profit for the segment up 40% for the quarter. Finally, our K-C Professional business posted 11% organic growth. All geographies grew, with North America and developed markets delivering double-digit organic growth. Although volume remains below pre-pandemic levels, we remain focused on opportunities where we can deliver value and growth.

生活用紙的有機增長為 7%，所有地區均有廣泛增長。我們繼續提高衛生紙業務的盈利能力，本季度該部門的營業利潤增長了 40%。最後，我們的 K-C Professional 業務實現了 11% 的有機增長。所有地區都實現了增長，北美和發達市場實現了兩位數的有機增長。儘管銷量仍低於大流行前的水平，但我們仍然專注於可以創造價值和增長的機會。

Operating profit for our Professional segment grew 77% in the first quarter of the year, and we are continuing to make investments in the business to drive long-term sustainable growth. First quarter gross margin increased 340 basis points to 33.2%. Pricing, in addition before savings of approximately $105 million more than offset the impact of input costs of approximately $160 million, which represented a roughly 300 basis point impact this quarter. Between the lines spending on an adjusted basis was 18.1% of net sales, up 60 basis points versus a year ago driven by higher investments in our business.

我們專業部門的營業利潤在今年第一季度增長了 77%，我們將繼續對該業務進行投資，以推動長期可持續增長。第一季度毛利率增長 340 個基點至 33.2%。定價，此外，在節省約 1.05 億美元之前，抵消了約 1.6 億美元投入成本的影響，這代表了本季度約 300 個基點的影響。調整後的支出占淨銷售額的 18.1%，與一年前相比上升 60 個基點，這主要是因為我們的業務投資增加了。

Adjusted operating profit for the quarter increased 25%, and operating margin was 15.1%, an increase of 280 basis points versus last year's adjusted operating margin. Foreign currency was a 12 percentage point headwind on operating profit in the quarter, of which 5 percentage points was due to the impact of translating our foreign subsidiary earnings into U.S. dollars and the balance impacting input costs. We have made good progress on our margin recovery over the last few quarters. However, our gross margins are still approximately 200 basis points below pre-pandemic levels. We remain committed to restoring and expanding our margins over time.

本季度調整後的營業利潤增長 25%，營業利潤率為 15.1%，比去年調整後的營業利潤率增加 280 個基點。外匯對本季度的營業利潤產生了 12 個百分點的不利影響，其中 5 個百分點是由於將我們的外國子公司收益轉換為美元的影響以及影響投入成本的餘額。過去幾個季度，我們在利潤率恢復方面取得了良好進展。然而，我們的毛利率仍比大流行前水平低約 200 個基點。隨著時間的推移，我們仍然致力於恢復和擴大我們的利潤率。

The effective tax rate was 24.5% compared to an adjusted effective tax rate of 21% in the year ago period. Better-than-expected top line and margin performance resulted in earnings per share of $1.67, up 24% versus adjusted results last year. This quarter also resulted in strong cash generation. Cash provided by operations was approximately $600 million, driven by our healthy increase in operating profit and management of working capital. Capital spending was $201 million compared to $253 million last year. During the first quarter, we returned $425 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

實際稅率為 24.5%，而去年同期調整後的實際稅率為 21%。好於預期的收入和利潤率表現導致每股收益為 1.67 美元，比去年調整後的結果增長 24%。本季度還帶來了強勁的現金產生。運營提供的現金約為 6 億美元，這得益於我們的運營利潤和營運資金管理的健康增長。資本支出為 2.01 億美元，而去年為 2.53 億美元。第一季度，我們通過股息和股票回購向股東返還了 4.25 億美元。

Now let me say a few words about our outlook. We are raising our full year earnings guidance to reflect our Q1 performance and the moderation of commodity headwinds, increasing it to a range of 6% to 10% growth from our prior guidance of 2% to 6% growth. We've maintained a full year outlook for organic growth of 2% to 4% as we lap last year's pricing actions against a softer economic backdrop. We are committed to investing behind our brands and people, and will methodically assess incremental opportunities to drive near-term returns.

現在讓我談談我們的前景。我們正在提高我們的全年盈利預期，以反映我們第一季度的業績和商品逆風的緩和，將其從我們之前的 2% 至 6% 的增長預期提高到 6% 至 10% 的增長范圍。我們將全年的有機增長前景維持在 2% 至 4%，因為我們在經濟疲軟的背景下重複去年的定價行動。我們致力於投資於我們的品牌和人才，並將有條不紊地評估增量機會以推動近期回報。

As we scale recent innovation to more markets and advance our commercial capabilities, we expect to step up brand investments in the second quarter and the rest of the year, as we said last quarter. We are optimistic about bringing superior value propositions that will increase household penetration and market share over time. With the success from our innovation pipeline and brand investments, we have increased confidence in our ability to deliver in the top half of our guidance range for organic growth.

正如我們上個季度所說，隨著我們將近期的創新擴展到更多市場並提升我們的商業能力，我們預計將在第二季度和今年剩餘時間加強品牌投資。我們對帶來卓越的價值主張持樂觀態度，這些主張將隨著時間的推移增加家庭滲透率和市場份額。憑藉我們的創新渠道和品牌投資的成功，我們對實現有機增長指導範圍上半部分的能力更有信心。

Our input cost assumptions for the year have improved but remain a headwind of $100 million to $200 million. In addition to the $200 million headwind from higher wages and other manufacturing costs, as stated last quarter. Most of the impact of input costs have been realized in the first quarter, and we expect headwinds to dissipate throughout the year. Bear in mind, that the outlook for commodities remains mixed and cost levels continue to hover significantly above 2019 levels. Our revised input cost assumptions take into account benefits from lower transportation and energy costs. However, beyond these, we have not seen material changes in other commodities versus our prior outlook and markets remain volatile.

我們今年的投入成本假設有所改善，但仍存在 1 億至 2 億美元的不利因素。如上季度所述，除了工資上漲和其他製造成本帶來的 2 億美元逆風。投入成本的大部分影響已在第一季度實現，我們預計不利因素將在全年消散。請記住，大宗商品的前景仍然喜憂參半，成本水平繼續顯著高於 2019 年水平。我們修改後的投入成本假設考慮了較低的運輸和能源成本帶來的好處。然而，除此之外，與我們之前的展望相比，我們沒有看到其他商品發生重大變化，市場仍然波動。

For example, oil prices have reversed the downward trend with the recent round of supply cuts and supply restrictions have contributed to higher prices in other raw materials. Global logistics are improving. However, the labor market remains tight. Certainly, we hope to see commodity abatement in the future, but we cannot count on it to recover the significant impact of inflation in the last 3 years. We are going to focus on what we can control, which is continuing to offer consumers superior products, maintain our focus on revenue growth initiatives, accretive innovation and sustained productivity delivery.

例如，隨著最近一輪供應削減和供應限制導致其他原材料價格上漲，油價扭轉了下跌趨勢。全球物流正在改善。然而，勞動力市場仍然吃緊。當然，我們希望看到商品價格在未來有所下降，但我們不能指望它能恢復過去 3 年通貨膨脹的重大影響。我們將專注於我們可以控制的事情，即繼續為消費者提供優質產品，繼續關注收入增長計劃、增值創新和持續的生產力交付。

We are raising our outlook for operating profit growth to a low double-digit percent range and for operating margin to increase by approximately 130 basis points at the midpoint of our guidance. Currency is expected to impact operating profit by $300 million to $400 million, the majority of which will impact our costs. Based on these assumptions, we have increased our outlook for earnings per share growth to a range of 6% to 10%. While we do not provide quarterly guidance, let me remind you that we are lapping tough sales comparisons and expect to have continued currency headwinds in the second quarter.

我們將營業利潤增長的預期提高到較低的兩位數百分比範圍，營業利潤率在我們的指導中點增加約 130 個基點。貨幣預計將影響營業利潤 3 億至 4 億美元，其中大部分將影響我們的成本。基於這些假設，我們將每股收益增長預期上調至 6% 至 10%。雖然我們不提供季度指引，但讓我提醒您，我們正在進行艱難的銷售比較，預計第二季度將繼續面臨貨幣逆風。

As Mike said, we have a full slate of commercial programs coming up, and our teams are laser-focused on executing with excellence. I am proud of our team's execution leading to a strong start to the year, and we are committed to delivering balanced and sustainable growth that will create shareholder value.

正如邁克所說，我們即將推出一整套商業計劃，我們的團隊非常專注於卓越執行。我為我們團隊的執行力帶來今年的強勁開局而感到自豪，我們致力於實現平衡和可持續的增長，從而創造股東價值。

With that, we will open the floor for questions.

有了這個，我們將開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question is coming from Chris Carey from Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Wells Fargo 的 Chris Carey。

So I just wanted to start on the gross margin line. Clearly, your strong expectations this quarter. If anything, the debate will be, why can't you continue to sequentially climb from here as pricing remains strong and commodities continue to deflate.

所以我只想從毛利率開始。顯然，您對本季度的期望很高。如果有的話，辯論將是，為什麼你不能繼續從這裡連續攀升，因為定價仍然強勁，商品繼續通縮。

So I wonder if you have any thoughts on just the sequential cadence of gross margin development here, and perhaps any of the investments into that line item that might be a bit more atypical relative to what seems to be a pretty sequential cyclical recovery in your gross margin. Then a follow-up.

所以我想知道你是否對這裡毛利率發展的連續節奏有任何想法，也許對這個項目的任何投資相對於你的毛利率似乎是一個相當連續的周期性複蘇來說可能有點不典型利潤。然後是跟進。

Okay. Chris, I'll start by -- I'm sure Nelson will want to give you some more color and texture. Definitely encouraged by what I would say is excellent progress on margin recovery. Just for reference, I'm really proud of the team, that the organization where we're accelerating growth and restoring margins while still investing to drive long-term balanced and sustainable growth. So that's kind of what our overall play is.

好的。克里斯，我先說——我相信納爾遜會想給你更多的顏色和質感。我要說的是在保證金恢復方面取得了巨大進展，這絕對讓我感到鼓舞。僅供參考，我真的為團隊感到自豪，我們在這個組織中加速增長和恢復利潤，同時仍在投資以推動長期平衡和可持續增長。所以這就是我們的整體遊戲。

But on the margin recovery, yes, in the margin, as we said on the prepared remarks, gross and operating margins were each up about 300 basis points. We had excellent price execution. And I'd say our pricing has been commensurate with what our expectations for cost net of our ramped up productivity would deliver. And so I think the teams have really done an excellent job around the world there.

但是關於利潤率的恢復，是的，正如我們在準備好的評論中所說的那樣，在利潤率方面，毛利率和營業利潤率各增長了約 300 個基點。我們有出色的價格執行。而且我會說我們的定價與我們對提高生產力後的成本淨額的預期相稱。因此，我認為這些團隊在全球範圍內確實做得非常出色。

Input costs has stabilized. And I think actually for the past 2 quarters, and this is about the most stability we've seen. I think the call is about the same as it was back in January. And so for that, we've had probably seen about 16 weeks of stability, which gives us something good to aim for. And I think the teams have done a good great job kind of work in the productivity.

投入成本趨於穩定。我認為實際上在過去的兩個季度中，這是我們所見過的最穩定的情況。我認為這次通話與 1 月份的通話大致相同。因此，為此，我們可能已經看到了大約 16 週的穩定性，這給了我們一些很好的目標。而且我認為團隊在生產力方面做得很好。

We are seeing some green shoots, transportation being the current area. But our current view is that the overall cost environment is going to be fairly consistent with what we said overall. I mean it's going to be about $0.5 billion. We're going to pick up a little bit of favorability, we think.

我們看到了一些萌芽，交通是當前領域。但我們目前的觀點是，整體成本環境將與我們所說的總體情況相當一致。我的意思是這將是大約 5 億美元。我們認為，我們會獲得一點好感。

I would add, though, Chris, I definitely see reversion around the corner. The cost, we're up to now 3-point -- we expect to be over the last 3 years, $3.7 billion of inflation. I would expect the history of these categories and our commodities that we buy, it generally comes back out. I don't really see that thus far in this year, but we will see maybe some moderation in the second half of this year. But Nelson, do you want to give them a little more texture?

不過，我要補充一點，克里斯，我肯定會看到回歸在即。到目前為止，我們的成本是 3 點——我們預計在過去 3 年中，通貨膨脹將達到 37 億美元。我希望這些類別的歷史和我們購買的商品，它通常會回來。今年到目前為止我還沒有真正看到這一點，但我們可能會在今年下半年看到一些緩和。但是納爾遜，你想讓它們更有質感嗎？

Sure. Just to build on what Mike was saying, Chris, a few things. So the majority of our cost headwind, and that's just the now $100 million to $200 million, would have hit us in Q1. We don't expect it to be too significant for the balance of the year. In fact, we do expect that to begin subsiding as we go into the back half of the year.

當然。克里斯，邁克說的是幾件事。因此，我們的大部分成本逆風，也就是現在的 1 億至 2 億美元，將在第一季度打擊我們。我們預計它對今年餘下時間的影響不會太大。事實上，我們確實預計隨著我們進入今年下半年，這種情況會開始消退。

And to your question specifically on are we going to see further gross margin gains as the year progresses? So the answer is yes. I mean, we expect gross margin to continue to gain as we go up through the year. This marks the second quarter in a row that we expand gross margins, and by not an insignificant amount versus the prior year.

對於您的具體問題，隨著時間的推移，我們是否會看到進一步的毛利率增長？所以答案是肯定的。我的意思是，我們預計毛利率將隨著今年的增長而繼續增長。這標誌著我們連續第二個季度擴大了毛利率，而且與上一年相比增幅不小。

And as a reminder, the last time that had happened had been 8 quarters ago, if you step back in time. So we are very encouraged by the progress made. A couple of things to keep in mind are the fact that we were early in terms of pricing. So we will begin to lap some of the pricing as we go into the second half of the year. Hence, why some of the increases that we've seen in last quarter and this quarter in gross margin in terms of absolutes, we don't expect that to remain.

提醒一下，如果時光倒流，上一次發生這種情況是在 8 個季度前。因此，我們對所取得的進展感到非常鼓舞。要記住的幾件事是我們在定價方面處於早期階段。因此，我們將在進入下半年時開始調整一些定價。因此，為什麼我們在上個季度和本季度看到的絕對毛利率有所增長，我們預計這種情況不會持續存在。

We do expect to exit Q4 at a higher gross margin than what we delivered in Q1. And that really puts us on good track to get back to our pre-pandemic level gross margin of roughly 35% that we saw in 2019. In addition to that, we continue to have a very healthy pipeline of productivity, and the team is focused on managing through all of the levers to drive the margin recovery that we've committed to and then start expanding from there.

我們確實希望以比我們在第一季度交付的更高的毛利率退出第四季度。這確實讓我們走上了良好的軌道，可以恢復到我們在 2019 年看到的大約 35% 的大流行前毛利率水平。除此之外，我們繼續擁有非常健康的生產力渠道，並且團隊專注於通過所有槓桿進行管理以推動我們承諾的利潤率恢復，然後從那裡開始擴展。

Thank you so much for that perspective. Just one quick follow-up. Your gross margin historically have recovered in quite a linear fashion in the same way that they've actually gone down during times of pressure. Is there any reason why your gross margin should step up kind of each quarter through the year in context of your Q4 exit rate being higher than Q1?

非常感謝你的觀點。只是一個快速跟進。從歷史上看，您的毛利率以相當線性的方式恢復，就像它們在壓力時期實際下降的方式一樣。在您的第四季度退出率高於第一季度的情況下，您的毛利率在全年每個季度都應該增加嗎？

And I just wonder if you have that level of sequential gross margin progression. Can you just remind about your overall investment philosophies and your willingness to, or desire, to put more spending back into the system as opposed to letting this flow to the bottom line, that could be for this year or going into next year as well. So thanks so much for that.

我只是想知道你是否有那種水平的連續毛利率增長。您能否提醒一下您的整體投資理念以及您願意或希望將更多支出重新投入系統，而不是讓它流向底線，這可能是今年或明年的情況。非常感謝。

Sure. So a couple of things. We have seen an acceleration in the last 2 quarters, and it's been fairly strong. So I don't expect that to sustain because, as I said, 2 things. One, costs will subside as we go into the second half, but pricing will also subside because we'll lap it.

當然。所以有幾件事。我們在過去兩個季度看到了加速，而且相當強勁。所以我不希望這種情況持續下去，因為正如我所說，有兩件事。第一，隨著我們進入下半年，成本將會下降，但定價也會下降，因為我們會超越它。

The good news is we do expect to be continuing to gain as the year progresses. So yes, it will continue to be a straight line, but the slope will change, and it will get a little bit more muted, and it's as expected. But going to the investment philosophy, I think it's important to highlight that this quarter, we increased our investment behind the brands and innovation versus prior year, 60 basis points.

好消息是我們確實希望隨著時間的推移繼續獲得收益。所以是的，它會繼續是一條直線，但斜率會改變，它會變得更柔和一點，這是預期的。但就投資理念而言，我認為重要的是要強調本季度，我們在品牌和創新背後的投資與去年同期相比增加了 60 個基點。

And as you remember, when we gave the outlook back in January, we said that for the full year, we were expecting at least about 100 basis points of investment. You would have seen in our prepared remarks that we have a very strong pipeline of innovation that's been put into market, and we are supporting it as we speak. And this is really the key. And our philosophy, even with all the headwinds that we were facing last year and the prior year has been that we're in this for the long run. We don't go for the quarter.

你還記得，當我們在 1 月份給出展望時，我們說對於全年，我們預計至少會有大約 100 個基點的投資。你會在我們準備好的評論中看到，我們有一個非常強大的創新管道已經投入市場，我們在說話時支持它。這真的是關鍵。我們的理念是，即使我們在去年和前一年面臨所有不利因素，我們也會長期處於這一狀態。我們不去這個季度。

So we go for the long run, and we've been around for 150 years and counting. And the key has been, we've been very disciplined about investing. We've been disciplined about our costs. But we do expect, Chris, as the year progresses to step up our investments. Hence, why I'm highlighting the fact that we saw 60 basis points of investment increase. But for the full year, we are expecting about 100 basis points when it's all said and done.

所以我們從長遠來看，我們已經存在了 150 年，而且還在不斷增加。關鍵是，我們在投資方面一直非常自律。我們一直對我們的成本進行紀律處分。但克里斯，我們確實希望隨著時間的推移增加我們的投資。因此，為什麼我要強調我們看到投資增加了 60 個基點這一事實。但就全年而言，我們預計在一切都說完之後會出現大約 100 個基點。

Yes. Chris, just to tack on, we're continuing to invest in our brands to drive long-term balance and sustainable growth. We're trying to create the proverbial virtuous cycle, right? And so we definitely see that this year, in that opportunity this year.

是的。克里斯，繼續前進，我們將繼續投資於我們的品牌，以推動長期平衡和可持續增長。我們正在努力創造眾所周知的良性循環，對吧？所以我們今年肯定會看到這一點，在今年的那個機會中。

Certainly, I think the good start gives us a little more room and confidence to be able to invest further. And so even beyond kind of what we had thought during the start of the year, I think we would probably look for additional opportunity because, one, we really are excited about our innovation. I highlighted a little bit of that in our prepared remarks when we have great stuff for 2023.

當然，我認為良好的開端讓我們有更多的空間和信心能夠進一步投資。因此，即使超出我們年初的想法，我認為我們可能會尋找更多機會，因為，第一，我們真的對我們的創新感到興奮。當我們為 2023 年準備好東西時，我在準備好的發言中強調了一點。

I think there's magic coming in poop, and kind of what we can do with poop. I talked about Cottonelle with the superior clean comfort protection on diapers. So we got great news. The other thing that we're really focused on and our retail partners, I think value, is we're really focused on expanding the categories, right? And so driving trial and penetration in these categories through advertising, and that's what some of the investment will be earmarked for.

我認為糞便中有魔法，我們可以用糞便做些什麼。我談到了 Cottonelle 在尿布上具有卓越的清潔舒適保護。所以我們得到了好消息。我們真正關注的另一件事和我們的零售合作夥伴，我認為價值，是我們真的專注於擴大類別，對嗎？因此，通過廣告推動這些類別的試驗和滲透，這就是部分投資的用途。

And so -- and we think there's great opportunity to expand penetration, even in the most highly developed category in the world, which is bath tissue, as I highlighted. Because a lot of consumers are still unsatisfied with what the category does. So we feel like we're improving our brand propositions. We have great news. And so putting more money behind the brands, I think, will work very hard for us, and we're excited to do that this year.

因此 - 我們認為有很大的機會擴大滲透率，即使在世界上最發達的類別中，也就是我強調的浴巾類別。因為很多消費者仍然對該品類的表現不滿意。所以我們覺得我們正在改進我們的品牌主張。我們有好消息。因此，我認為，在品牌背後投入更多資金，對我們來說會非常辛苦，我們很高興今年能做到這一點。

Your next question is coming from Kevin Grundy from Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Kevin Grundy。

Congrats on the strong start to the year. I thought we'd pivot to your organic sales growth guidance. So you decided to maintain it at this juncture of the year. Nelson, you talked about cycling some of the pricing taken, although -- so the guidance does imply a deceleration relative to the strong start to the year, call it, up 1% for the balance at the low end. The high end would imply something closer to 3% to 4% for the balance of the year.

祝賀今年開局強勁。我以為我們會轉向你的有機銷售增長指導。所以你決定在每年的這個時候維護它。納爾遜，你談到了循環一些定價，儘管如此——所以指導確實意味著相對於今年的強勁開局有所減速，稱之為低端餘額增長 1%。高端意味著今年剩餘時間接近 3% 至 4%。

Comment maybe just on how you're thinking about the cadence and how that breaks down between price and mix? And then Mike, it would be great to get your updated thoughts on how you view trade-down risk, which we've seen in some of your categories. And what's reflected in your outlook? And then I have a follow-up.

評論可能只是關於您如何考慮節奏以及它如何在價格和組合之間分解？然後邁克，如果你能更新你如何看待降價風險的想法，那將是很棒的，我們已經在你的一些類別中看到了這一點。你的觀點反映了什麼？然後我有一個後續行動。

So let me start, Kevin, with the organic growth outlook and how we see it evolving in the course of the year. So obviously, we've seen that pricing has continued to be the big driver behind our top line growth over the last 3 quarters. And in this particular quarter, as we stated, our performance was better than what we had initially projected, and that had to do largely with the category dynamics.

凱文，讓我從有機增長前景以及我們如何看待它在這一年中的演變開始。很明顯，我們已經看到定價在過去 3 個季度中繼續成為我們收入增長的主要推動力。正如我們所說，在這個特定的季度，我們的表現比我們最初預測的要好，這在很大程度上與類別動態有關。

Categories were stronger than what we expected, and the impact of elasticities on volume was more muted, frankly, than what we had projected. So that helped. But despite that, pricing continued to be the big driver of top line growth.

類別比我們預期的要強，坦率地說，彈性對數量的影響比我們預測的要小。所以這有幫助。但儘管如此，定價仍然是收入增長的主要推動力。

What we expect to happen as we cycle many of the pricing actions that we took, because remember, we were one -- we led in many of the markets, the pricing actions dating back to Q4 2021. So we will be -- we'll start to lap many of those as we exit Q2. So our expectation as the year progresses is that the volume impacts that we've seen, and we saw 7% in Q4, we saw a 5% drop in Q1, will begin to taper off because the impact of the pricing will go away.

當我們循環我們採取的許多定價行動時，我們期望會發生什麼，因為請記住，我們是一個 - 我們在許多市場中處於領先地位，定價行動可以追溯到 2021 年第四季度。所以我們將 - 我們'當我們退出第二季度時，我們將開始超越其中的許多。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們的預期是我們所看到的數量影響，我們在第四季度看到 7%，我們在第一季度看到 5% 的下降，將開始逐漸減少，因為定價的影響將消失。

But by the same token, as all the carryover pricing is lapped, we will also expect pricing to subside. So it will turn into a more balanced algorithm in terms of top line growth as we progress through the back half of the year. And then yes, we did hold to our guidance of 2% to 4%. We highlighted that we're aiming for the top end of the guidance in light of the performance that we had in Q1.

但出於同樣的原因，由於所有結轉價格都被重疊，我們也預計價格會下降。因此，隨著我們在今年下半年取得進展，就收入增長而言，它將變成一種更加平衡的算法。然後是的，我們確實堅持了 2% 到 4% 的指導。我們強調，根據我們在第一季度的表現，我們的目標是達到指南的頂端。

And also, because we're taking into account the stronger category performance that we've seen, given the resilience of our consumers and the innovation that's being put into the marketplace. So overall, we are aiming for that top end of the guidance, as I just stated. And I've just given you a little bit of flavor of how we see the evolution of volume and pricing as the year goes by. But Mike?

而且，因為我們正在考慮我們所看到的更強勁的品類表現，考慮到我們消費者的彈性和正在投入市場的創新。所以總的來說，正如我剛才所說，我們的目標是指南的頂端。我剛剛向您介紹了我們如何看待一年中銷量和定價的演變。但是邁克？

Yes. And then, Kevin, I'll category -- I'll comment on the categories, and you mentioned the down trading risk. One, I'd say, through the first quarter, of the categories remain healthy and the consumer remains resilient. The strong Q1, right, and probably stronger than we had anticipated at the start of the year, really on the back of category health.

是的。然後，凱文，我會分類——我會評論這些類別，你提到了下跌交易風險。一個，我想說，到第一季度，類別保持健康，消費者保持彈性。強勁的第一季度，正確的，並且可能比我們年初預期的要強勁，這真的是在品類健康的支持下。

Just to give you a few numbers, in the North American consumer categories, overall, our categories were up about 9, so high single digit. Western Europe was up teens in consumption. Latin America was up double digits. And K-C Professional organic was up double digits in every market. And so again, I think the categories are performing well.

只是給你幾個數字，在北美消費者類別中，總體而言，我們的類別增長了大約 9，如此高的個位數。西歐的消費增長了十幾歲。拉丁美洲增長了兩位數。 K-C Professional organic 在每個市場都以兩位數的速度增長。因此，我再次認為這些類別表現良好。

As Nelson mentioned, the volume elasticity impact has been somewhat muted. And here's a few factors, just to give you a flavor for it. In the U.S. diaper this is category numbers, not brand numbers, category, price was up 6, volume was down 2. In U.S., bath tissue price was up 11 and volume was down 1. And in U.S. adult care, price was up 7 and volume was up 4.

正如尼爾森所提到的，體積彈性的影響已經有些減弱。這裡有幾個因素，只是為了給你一個味道。在美國，尿布是類別編號，而不是品牌編號，類別，價格上漲 6，銷量下降 2。在美國，浴巾價格上漲 11，銷量下降 1。在美國成人護理中，價格上漲 7音量增加了 4。

So you can see the -- I guess, definition of any relatively -- inelastic is if elasticity is below 1, right? And so these -- clearly, at least in the recent period, it's kind of in that range. And I think the notion is, Kevin, that overall brand elasticities are higher than category elasticities, but our categories are generally relatively inelastic. And I said this example before. But if -- if the price goes up on bath tissue, generally doesn't mean you're going to use the bathroom less, right?

所以你可以看到 - 我猜，任何相對 - 非彈性的定義是彈性低於 1，對吧？所以這些 - 顯然，至少在最近一段時間內，它有點在那個範圍內。凱文，我認為整體品牌彈性高於品類彈性，但我們的品類通常相對缺乏彈性。我之前說過這個例子。但是，如果——如果衛生紙價格上漲，通常並不意味著你會減少使用浴室的次數，對吧？

And so I think we do operate in essential categories that have less elasticity. There is some down tiering out there, but I'd say it's not broad-based. And if I can use this word appropriately, it's not necessarily monolithic either. We're definitely maintaining momentum in the premium business, in the premium tiers of our business. Especially -- and that's especially true in developed markets.

因此，我認為我們確實在彈性較小的基本類別中開展業務。那裡有一些下層，但我想說它的基礎並不廣泛。如果我能恰當地使用這個詞，它也不一定是單一的。我們肯定會在我們的高端業務中保持高端業務的勢頭。特別是——在發達市場尤其如此。

In China, our mix continue to be up high single digit, and that's all shifting to -- internally, what we call our premium tiers, Tier 6 and 7. And so that momentum is proceeding. Similarly, in the U.S., we have strong momentum on our premium side. Even in a market like Brazil, the market is actually premiumizing. If you look at the mix and volume -- there's more going into premium than there is, and value is actually declining a little bit.

在中國，我們的組合繼續保持高個位數，而且這一切都在向——在內部，我們稱之為優質層級，第 6 層和第 7 層。因此，這種勢頭正在繼續。同樣，在美國，我們的保費方面勢頭強勁。即使在巴西這樣的市場，市場實際上也在高端化。如果你看一下組合和數量——進入溢價的比現在更多，而價值實際上正在下降一點點。

There definitely is down tiering and we see that in U.S. I think private label shares were up in, I think, 4 of the category, which was a tick up from the prior quarter. In markets like Argentina and Peru, which is a big market for us, we are seeing some additional down tiering. So we're sensitive to it. And so for us, as I mentioned in our prepared remarks, we're going to meet the consumers where they need us. And we're really focused on improving our value proposition, first by hitting the price points that consumers need us to be at, and that's through price pack changes. But also cascading our innovation more rapidly through our portfolio, especially into the value tiers. And so that's kind of where we are. I'll pause there and see if you have any follow-up.

肯定存在分層，我們看到在美國，我認為自有品牌股票上漲了，我認為有 4 個類別，這比上一季度有所上升。在像阿根廷和秘魯這樣對我們來說是一個大市場的市場，我們看到了一些額外的降級。所以我們對此很敏感。因此，對於我們來說，正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們將在消費者需要我們的地方與他們會面。我們真正專注於改善我們的價值主張，首先是通過價格調整來達到消費者需要我們達到的價格點。但也通過我們的產品組合更快地級聯我們的創新，特別是進入價值層。這就是我們所處的位置。我會在那裡暫停，看看你是否有任何後續行動。

Yes. Mike, the quick follow-up, and I'll try to be brief with this because that was a lot of fantastic color from you and from Nelson. It's just on trade promotion, right? So the narrative, it's remarkable how quickly it can change. It was sort of drinking out of a fire hose with commodity costs and now things moderate a bit.

是的。邁克，快速跟進，我會盡量簡短地說明這一點，因為你和尼爾森都發表了很多精彩的言論。只是貿易促進，對吧？所以敘事，它改變的速度非常快。這有點像用商品成本從消防水龍帶裡喝水，現在情況有所緩和。

And the narrative is now a lot more worried about trade down and what's the potential for trade support to ramp significantly. What's the potential for some of the competitive players, maybe who do not play nicely in the sandbox, whether this is in Europe with private label. What are your thoughts around that, that competitive intensity ramps here significantly as commodity costs moderate? And then I'll pass it on.

現在的敘述更加擔心貿易下降以及貿易支持顯著增加的潛力。一些有競爭力的玩家的潛力是什麼，也許他們在沙盒中表現不佳，無論是在歐洲的自有品牌。您對此有何看法，隨著商品成本的降低，競爭強度會顯著上升？然後我會把它傳下去。

Yes. Great while you're on it, Kevin. I mean we're seeing that in spots. And so in Latin America, we're seeing a little ramped up promotion from both local players and other multinationals, similarly in parts of Africa, for us. And in a few categories in North America.

是的。凱文，當你在上面的時候太棒了。我的意思是我們在某些地方看到了這一點。因此，在拉丁美洲，我們看到當地企業和其他跨國公司對我們的宣傳有所增加，在非洲部分地區也是如此。在北美的一些類別中。

Childcare pull-ups is one. Periodically, there's a secondary or tertiary brands that make a distribution push. And we see that from time to time. And so we see a little ramp up promotion from time to time. Our thing is we've priced -- I mean our margins are not whole yet from pre-pandemic levels. And so we know what we need to get to. We're prioritizing margin recovery, and we're going to be disciplined about it.

育兒引體向上就是其中之一。定期會有二級或三級品牌進行分銷推廣。我們不時看到這一點。因此，我們不時會看到一些小幅度的促銷活動。我們的事情是我們已經定價——我的意思是我們的利潤率還沒有達到大流行前的水平。所以我們知道我們需要做什麼。我們正在優先考慮利潤率恢復，我們將對此進行紀律處分。

And we've priced commensurate to our expectations for both input costs and what our net productivity is going to be. We've got invested a lot, a lot over the last few years in building a great revenue growth management analytic capability. And so we're going to continue to be really agile and disciplined in our spending. But maybe the color commentary I'll give you, and this is philosophical or my business philosophy is I'm not a fan of renting share through promotion.

我們的定價與我們對投入成本和淨生產率的預期相稱。在過去的幾年裡，我們投入了大量資金來建立強大的收入增長管理分析能力。因此，我們將繼續在支出方面保持真正的敏捷和紀律。但也許我會給你顏色評論，這是哲學或我的經營理念是我不喜歡通過促銷來出租股份。

I mean we've seen that movie -- I've seen that over and over in a lot of categories, including in food and everything else. And I've always got out of the renting of share business. And what I mean by that is overpromoting brands to kind of tick up shares. I'd rather earn it through the base business through advertising innovation and making the products better.

我的意思是我們看過那部電影——我在很多類別中都看過一遍又一遍，包括食物和其他一切。而且我總是擺脫共享業務的租賃。我的意思是過度宣傳品牌以增加股價。我寧願通過基礎業務通過廣告創新和改進產品來獲得收入。

And so that's kind of what our high road -- internally, we call our high road strategy, which is, hey, we want sustainable growth. We're going to earn our share through a better brand value proposition, and we're going to grow category penetration over time. That doesn't get done well through trade promotion.

所以這就是我們的高速路——在內部，我們稱之為高速路戰略，嘿，我們想要可持續增長。我們將通過更好的品牌價值主張贏得我們的份額，並且我們將隨著時間的推移增加類別滲透率。通過貿易促進並不能很好地做到這一點。

So it will be out there. Obviously, we're going to want to be competitive. But I think for us, I think investing in advertising to grow the category and innovation is our preferred path.

所以它會在那裡。顯然，我們想要具有競爭力。但我認為對我們來說，我認為投資廣告來發展品類和創新是我們的首選途徑。

Your next question is coming from Andrea Teixeira from JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

So I just wanted to go back to what you both talked about in terms of pricing, having obviously rolling over or the comparison is getting tougher. But also, as we think about it, we stepped back in cycles, right, 2 things. One is on utilization and consumers having to make tough choices in a number of diaper changes.

所以我只想回到你們倆在定價方面談論的內容，顯然已經滾動或者比較變得更加艱難。但是，正如我們所想的那樣，我們在循環中退後一步，對，有兩件事。一個是使用率，消費者不得不在更換尿佈時做出艱難的選擇。

I'm sure it's not happening as we speak now, but in some countries where, definitely it's not, not only performance that drives choice, but also at the end of the day, what they can afford. So the premiumization sometimes also happens when you have to use a better diaper at night, and that's going to be the only change. And number one, so is that something that you're positioning now as we go into rougher times?

我敢肯定這不會像我們現在所說的那樣發生，但在某些國家/地區，絕對不會，不僅性能會推動選擇，而且在一天結束時，他們還能負擔得起。因此，當您必須在晚上使用更好的尿佈時，有時也會發生優質化，而這將是唯一的變化。第一，當我們進入艱難時期時，你現在正在定位什麼？

And then second, when you think about like what happens to private label, which is -- which has -- so pulp prices obviously declining a bunch. We see local competitors in China obviously not sitting on their hands. When you think about -- when you think what's going to happen to the cycle, where some of the private label contracts automatically also passes through the way down, how to think -- I'm not saying it's going to happen now, but in 6 months from now, is that something that you embed in your guidance for margins? And so how to think of that?

其次，當您考慮私人標籤發生的情況時，這就是 - 已經 - 所以紙漿價格明顯下降了很多。我們看到中國本土的競爭對手顯然沒有袖手旁觀。當你考慮 - 當你考慮週期會發生什麼時，一些自有品牌合同也會自動向下傳遞，如何思考 - 我並不是說它現在會發生，但在6 個月後，您是否將其嵌入到利潤率指南中？那麼怎麼想呢？

And in particular, I would say, diapers is not so much of a category, but perhaps even tissue as we go through this phase. So I was wondering how to think of those.

特別是，我想說的是，尿布不是一個類別，在我們經歷這個階段時甚至可能是紙巾。所以我想知道如何想到這些。

Yes. Okay. Yes. First of all, I think on the -- yes, I mean, you're exactly right on the usage front. I mean, we do see in some markets, and I'd say it tends to be more developing in emerging markets where incomes are a little -- budgets are a little tighter that you see the trade down.

是的。好的。是的。首先，我認為 - 是的，我的意思是，您在使用方面完全正確。我的意思是，我們確實在一些市場上看到了，我想說的是，在新興市場中，這種情況往往會發展得更好，那裡的收入很少——預算更緊，你會看到交易量下降。

And that's occurred -- that occurred starting 3 years ago, 4 years ago now with COVID, and we saw that extensively in Latin America where people were stretching out usage. And if they were using, let's say, 3 diapers a day, they had gone down to 2. And so -- and in some cases, I think that would explain, to your point exactly, Andrea, we're trading up to a higher quality, maybe higher capacity diaper, we've seen some of that behavior.

這已經發生了——從 3 年前開始，現在是 4 年前的 COVID，我們在拉丁美洲廣泛看到了人們延長使用時間的情況。如果他們每天使用 3 個尿布，他們會減少到 2 個。所以 - 在某些情況下，我認為這可以解釋，對於你的觀點，安德里亞，我們正在交易更高質量，也許更高容量的尿布，我們已經看到了一些這種行為。

But I think in Latin America, in particular, we've seen behavior shift. We had seen in the prior 2 or 3 years ago, some shift from premium to value. As I mentioned, we're now seeing some shift from value to premium the other way, but we've seen that usage change before.

但我認為，特別是在拉丁美洲，我們已經看到了行為轉變。我們在 2 或 3 年前就看到了一些從溢價到價值的轉變。正如我所提到的，我們現在看到了從價值到溢價的一些轉變，但我們之前已經看到了這種使用變化。

A little less -- I think we would observe that behavior a little less in developed markets like the U.S., but it still does occur nonetheless. So that's kind of factored into our approach, and that's why you'll see from us, and I highlighted it in the prepared remarks. I mean we're really going to emphasize our advertising, the value of our products and the performance of our products.

少一點 - 我認為我們會在美國等發達市場觀察到這種行為，但它仍然會發生。所以這是我們方法中的一個因素，這就是為什麼你會從我們這裡看到，我在準備好的評論中強調了這一點。我的意思是我們真的要強調我們的廣告、我們產品的價值和我們產品的性能。

And so we're really -- we'll address it that way, and also by cascading better features through our product line. So I think that's maybe the first part. And on the private label front, I think your question is correct. And certainly, as costs come down in the category, we might expect some pricing to come down. We're still working through that.

所以我們真的 - 我們將以這種方式解決它，並通過我們的產品線級聯更好的功能。所以我認為這可能是第一部分。在自有品牌方面，我認為你的問題是正確的。當然，隨著該類別成本的下降，我們可能會預期一些定價會下降。我們仍在努力解決這個問題。

At this point, we're still operating at the peak, even though we have a little bit of relief. We're still operating at the highs and you can look at the forecast. I mean some of our -- calling up for it come down a bit, but costs remain still well above billions over what they were 2 or 3 years ago. And so -- but we will plan for that. Nelson, anything to add?

此時，我們仍然在高峰期運營，儘管我們稍稍鬆了口氣。我們仍在高位運行，您可以查看預測。我的意思是我們的一些 - 呼籲它有所下降，但成本仍遠高於 2 或 3 年前的數十億美元。所以——但我們會為此做好計劃。納爾遜，有什麼要補充的嗎？

No. I think you've said it all, Mike.

不，我想你已經說完了，邁克。

Just as a quick one, Mike, and this is super helpful. When you say it's going to take a while, so we're looking at probably early next year where we might see things kind of leveling off or lapping on an inflation perspective.

就像一個快速的，邁克，這非常有幫助。當你說這需要一段時間時，所以我們可能會在明年初考慮，屆時我們可能會看到通脹趨於平穩或接近通脹水平。

Well, I mean, I would hope that it comes really fast, but it's not in our call right now. And so we have -- in the past, as you covered this category for a while now, and we've seen a more rapid reversion in the past.

好吧，我的意思是，我希望它能很快到來，但現在不在我們的電話中。所以我們 - 過去，正如你現在已經涵蓋了這個類別，我們已經看到過去更快速的回歸。

If you recall, I think 2018, we went to a record high and then on let's say, eucalyptus. And then by 2020, we're down to maybe a 10-year low. And so it does move around quite a bit. We haven't seen that action yet in a significant way, but I would anticipate it. So right.

如果你還記得，我認為 2018 年，我們創下了歷史新高，然後是桉樹。然後到 2020 年，我們可能會跌至 10 年來的最低點。所以它確實移動了很多。我們還沒有在重要方面看到這一行動，但我會預料到。太對了。

And just to build on that last point, Andrea. The -- for this year, still taking into account only commodities and ForEx at the midpoint of our guidance, we're talking of another $0.5 billion. So it's not an immaterial amount. Albeit if we look at the prior 2 years, we were talking $3.2 billion.

Andrea，只是在最後一點的基礎上再接再厲。今年，在我們指導的中間點仍然只考慮商品和外匯，我們正在談論另外 5 億美元。所以這不是一個無關緊要的數額。儘管如果我們看一下前兩年，我們說的是 32 億美元。

So net-net, based on the outlook for this year, when it's all said and done, we have about $3.7 billion of headwinds that we've had to manage over the last 3 years when the year is done. So they remain high. Commodities remain elevated. ForEx remains volatile. Again, we're seeing green shoots, but that's the watch out. We still have disruptions in Europe.

因此，根據今年的展望，總而言之，我們在過去 3 年中不得不應對大約 37 億美元的逆風。所以他們保持高位。大宗商品保持高位。 ForEx 仍然不穩定。再一次，我們看到了萌芽，但要當心。我們在歐洲仍有中斷。

We still have items that we're maneuvering through, but we are seeing some of the items also improve in things like transportation and energy to some extent. So again, we need to take it in stride in a quarter at a time as we progress.

我們仍然有我們正在處理的項目，但我們看到一些項目在某種程度上也在交通和能源等方面有所改善。因此，隨著我們的進步，我們需要一次一個季度地大踏步前進。

Yes. But that $500 million, and that's an average, but if you think about like how it's front-loaded, right? So it's the $500 million on average, I'm just making up numbers. But let's say, it's $1 billion in the first half and then it's plus $500 million in the second half, reversing back.

是的。但那 5 億美元，這是一個平均值，但如果你想想它是如何提前加載的，對吧？所以這是平均 5 億美元，我只是在編造數字。但是假設，上半年是 10 億美元，然後下半年是 5 億美元，反過來。

So what I'm saying is that, okay, retailers are smart enough to know because they own the private label and they know their contracts. So they will not immediately have to -- that benefit or have to pass through that impact. But what I'm saying is that it will coincide that you're going to lap the pricing and you're going to start to see your inflation going the other way.

所以我要說的是，好吧，零售商足夠聰明，知道，因為他們擁有自有品牌並且他們知道他們的合同。因此，他們不會立即不得不——那種好處或必須通過這種影響。但我要說的是，恰逢你將定價過高，你將開始看到你的通貨膨脹朝著相反的方向發展。

So you're starting to see deflation, not on an annualized basis, but you're going to see on a quarterly basis. So I think what does that do with your -- when you're sitting down in the fall, to talk about pricing into spring of the following -- or into the beginning of next year?

所以你開始看到通貨緊縮，不是按年計算，而是按季度計算。所以我認為這對你有什麼影響 - 當你在秋天坐下來談論接下來的春天 - 或明年年初的定價？

Yes. I mean I think you're exactly right, and we'll definitely take that into account as we plan. Obviously, I don't want to sit here and telegraph what we plan to do on pricing in the second half or next year.

是的。我的意思是我認為你完全正確，我們在計劃時一定會考慮到這一點。顯然，我不想坐在這裡電報我們下半年或明年的定價計劃。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question is coming from Jason English from Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jason English。

So perhaps I missed it, which is totally possible, lots of distractions over here. But where are you expecting gross margins to land for the year?

所以也許我錯過了，這完全有可能，這裡有很多干擾。但您預計今年的毛利率會下降到哪裡？

Yes. So for gross margins, Jason, at the very least, we're expecting to expand them around 230 basis points year-over-year. Because remember, we're expanding at the midpoint of our guidance, operating margin by 130 basis points. We took that up 50 bps versus our prior outlook.

是的。因此，對於毛利率，傑森，至少，我們預計毛利率將同比增長 230 個基點左右。因為請記住，我們正在擴大我們指導的中點，即營業利潤率 130 個基點。與我們之前的預期相比，我們將其提高了 50 個基點。

And we are putting in the incremental 100 bps at least of investments into the brands. So that would put the year-on-year gain in gross margins at about 230 at the bottom.

我們至少增加了 100 個基點的品牌投資。因此，這將使毛利率的同比增幅處於底部，約為 230。

Got it. So that suggests that you've -- you're going to go kind of sideways from here. So you've reached another level, but you're plateaued up here at this level with no more sequential progression. What does it take then to like find the next level?

知道了。所以這表明你已經 - 你將從這裡開始橫向發展。所以你已經達到了另一個層次，但是你在這個層次上停滯不前，沒有更多的連續進展。那麼喜歡找到下一個級別需要什麼？

You mentioned in your prepared remarks, you're still a couple of hundred bps below where you started. Is that -- would we need commodities to come back in? Is that the enabler to get you next leg? And until that happens, sideways is the baseline expectation?

你在準備好的發言中提到，你仍然比你開始的地方低幾百個基點。那是——我們需要商品回來嗎？這是讓你下一站的推動力嗎？在那之前，橫向是基線預期嗎？

That's a good follow up, Jason. So the thing would be -- it wouldn't be necessarily sideways. Because as I said, I mean, we do expect to see continued progression in gross margin. I wouldn't call it linear. I don't expect it to be a straight line between now and Q4, because we have a few puts and takes with how commodities and pricing and FORCE will play. But we do expect to exit the year above the average for the full year. Does that help?

這是一個很好的跟進，傑森。所以事情會是——它不一定是橫向的。因為正如我所說，我的意思是，我們確實希望看到毛利率持續增長。我不會稱之為線性。我不希望從現在到第四季度之間是一條直線，因為我們對商品和定價以及 FORCE 將如何發揮作用有一些看法。但我們確實希望今年能高於全年平均水平。這有幫助嗎？

Yes, or exit the full year at the rate you just delivered in the first quarter. I mean that's what that 230 implies?

是的，或者以您剛剛在第一季度交付的速度退出全年。我的意思是 230 意味著什麼？

Well, let me just -- I'll give you a little more perspective, Jason, because here's the deal. Look, we updated the outlook -- I think it definitely reflects the strength of the first quarter relative to our expectations at the beginning of the year and our growing confidence in our underlying plan assumptions. I think we're off to a good start.

好吧，讓我 - 我會給你更多的觀點，傑森，因為這是交易。看，我們更新了前景——我認為這肯定反映了第一季度相對於我們年初預期的實力，以及我們對基本計劃假設的信心增強。我認為我們有了一個良好的開端。

And so the unsaid part of it is, I would say, Nelson and I, we probably had more muted expectations for our first quarter, closer to what you guys were all thinking. And so hey, we had a very strong start. As I mentioned, the other underlying category performance has been healthy. The cost environment has been stable. But that said, but I would say also in the first quarter, the shape of the P&L has performed very well.

因此，我想說的是，我和 Nelson 沒有說的部分是，我們對第一季度的期望可能更低，更接近你們所有人的想法。所以，嘿，我們有一個非常好的開始。正如我所提到的，其他基礎類別的表現一直很健康。成本環境穩定。但話雖如此，但我還要說的是，在第一季度，損益表的表現非常好。

And I'd say the cost -- the quarter, I think, exceeding our own internal expectations pretty healthy in a way that I would say the primary drivers were volume, price and cost. So if you take those 3 factors, those are pretty good quality factors. Could it continue to get better? It could. But I think we've made our call on the outlook and generally it feels a little soon to call -- revise our guidance up after the first quarter.

我想說成本——我認為，這個季度超出了我們自己的內部預期，我認為主要驅動因素是數量、價格和成本。所以如果你考慮這 3 個因素，它們就是非常好的質量因素。能否繼續好轉？它可以。但我認為我們已經對前景做出了呼籲，總的來說感覺有點早了——在第一季度後上調我們的指導。

But based on the strength of the first quarter, we felt like we should. But is there more room as we go through the year? There could be. But there's also a lot of volatility that remains, which is kind of why we call it the way we've called it. And so what are the down factors on volatility? We're all seeing the same reports about recessionary risk in the second half.

但基於第一季度的實力，我們覺得我們應該這樣做。但是隨著我們度過這一年，還有更多空間嗎？可能有。但也存在很多波動性，這就是為什麼我們這樣稱呼它的原因。那麼波動性的下降因素是什麼？我們都看到了關於下半年衰退風險的相同報告。

We don't exactly know what's going to happen to the cost -- input costs and currency. And so there are a lot of factors on both the plus side and the negative side. And so we're -- we feel like this is a good call for now. And we were -- I think I will retain the right to change our mind later.

我們不完全知道成本會發生什麼——投入成本和貨幣。因此，有利的一面和不利的一面都有很多因素。所以我們 - 我們覺得現在這是一個很好的呼籲。我們是——我想我會保留以後改變主意的權利。

Understood. Makes sense. And I agree with all your comments on the first quarter. Congrats on a strong start.

明白了。說得通。我同意你對第一季度的所有評論。祝賀你有了一個良好的開端。

Thanks, Jason.

謝謝，傑森。

Thanks, Jason.

謝謝，傑森。

Your next question is coming from Lauren Lieberman from Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Lauren Lieberman。

I wanted to talk about consumer tissue innovation. I know it's a topic that we've touched on before without going back into the detailed poop conversation. But you guys have talked for a long time about the ability or the intention to elevate the category and bring innovation there, and this seems like the big -- the first kind of like big chunky move in that direction.

我想談談消費者紙巾創新。我知道這是一個我們之前已經觸及的話題，但沒有回到詳細的便便對話中。但是你們已經談論了很長時間的能力或意圖提升類別並在那裡帶來創新，這似乎是一個大 - 第一個像大塊一樣朝著那個方向邁出的一步。

I was curious your view on kind of category development, right? If I think about it, I would argue that you're probably the only player that's really focusing on innovation and premiumization in the category in this demonstrative way. How are you going to see the category evolving over time, right? Is there a higher margin profiles that's structurally more interesting? Does this kind of raise the innovation game for everyone, more bifurcation between private label and branded?

我很好奇你對品類開發的看法，對吧？如果我考慮一下，我會爭辯說，您可能是唯一一個真正以這種示範方式專注於該類別的創新和高端化的玩家。您將如何看待該類別隨時間的演變，對嗎？是否有更高的利潤率配置文件在結構上更有趣？這是否會引發每個人的創新遊戲，私人標籤和品牌之間的更多分歧？

I'm just -- yes, curious on views on what your initial research and maybe test markets have shown you if you've done that on them, and how the category could evolve things with this move on innovation?

我只是 - 是的，對您的初步研究和測試市場向您展示的內容（如果您已經對它們進行了研究）以及該類別如何通過這種創新舉措來發展事物的觀點感到好奇？

Yes. I mean Lauren, we definitely think it's the right thing to do. I mean, this category is -- I mean, we invented the category. Scott Paper invented roll-back tissue over 120 years ago, and it hasn't changed that much fundamentally since then. And we all know the category talks about the attributes of soft and strong, and every bath tissue is a version of that.

是的。我的意思是勞倫，我們絕對認為這是正確的做法。我的意思是，這個類別是——我的意思是，我們發明了這個類別。 Scott Paper 在 120 多年前發明了回捲紙巾，從那以後它並沒有發生太大的根本變化。我們都知道該類別談論的是柔軟和結實的屬性，每一種浴巾都是這種特性的一個版本。

But the reality is as our team has done a harder digging, and the 50% of the consumers are dissatisfied what the products deliver for them. And so we think -- the core of the issue is around a better clean. It turns out, and you may not be surprised to know this, but the vast majority of the consumption of bath tissue is female. And just by that, you can see the category doesn't set itself up that way.

但事實是，我們的團隊進行了更深入的挖掘，50% 的消費者對產品為他們提供的服務不滿意。所以我們認為——問題的核心是更好的清潔。事實證明，知道這一點你可能不會感到驚訝，但絕大多數衛生紙的消費是女性。僅此而已，您可以看到該類別並沒有以這種方式設置自己。

And so we definitely think there's a lot of ways to innovate from a product perspective and a communication perspective to deliver better clean. You're going to see some of that in advertising. We have shared some of that with our customers. They're very excited.

因此，我們絕對認為有很多方法可以從產品角度和溝通角度進行創新，以提供更好的清潔效果。你會在廣告中看到其中的一些。我們已經與我們的客戶分享了其中的一些內容。他們非常興奮。

I think we're just on the -- I think, at the beginning stages of this approach. But I think it's the right one for the category. Because it's a huge category, and there's a lot of different ways to build. But I think creating more value added and giving consumers a better way to clean is a good one.

我認為我們只是 - 我認為，在這種方法的開始階段。但我認為這是該類別的正確選擇。因為它是一個巨大的類別，而且有很多不同的構建方式。但我認為創造更多附加值並為消費者提供更好的清潔方式是一件好事。

And then just from a profitability standpoint with this, right? So margins made a big step up this quarter in consumer tissue. But if I think back, the story in this category for K-C for a long time has been recognizing the cyclicality of the cost environment that you'll see here. But making the -- raising the bar, right? The highs are higher and so are the lows, right? In terms of margin percentage.

然後從盈利的角度來看，對吧？因此，本季度消費用紙的利潤率大幅上升。但如果我回想起來，長期以來，K-C 在這一類別中的故事一直在認識到你將在這裡看到的成本環境的周期性。但是，提高標準，對嗎？高點更高，低點也更高，對嗎？在保證金百分比方面。

But as you push forward on innovation here, I mean, is there a scope for this business to have peak margins that are, I mean, call me crazy, like 19%, 20%? I think prior peak is maybe around 18%. But just not thinking this year, obviously, but over a multiyear horizon, what this means, could mean structurally for profitability in the category.

但是當你在這裡推進創新時，我的意思是，這項業務是否有達到峰值利潤率的空間，我的意思是，讓我瘋狂，比如 19%、20%？我認為之前的峰值可能在 18% 左右。但顯然，只是今年沒有考慮，但在多年的時間範圍內，這意味著什麼，可能意味著該類別的結構性盈利能力。

Yes. Well, let me go back broader, Lauren. I mean when I came into this role back in 2019, I think I started off with saying, hey, margin expansion is a goal, right? And so we got pushed back because -- when I said that, I wasn't anticipating $3.7 billion of additional cost and currency headwinds.

是的。好吧，讓我回到更廣泛的地方，勞倫。我的意思是，當我在 2019 年擔任這個職位時，我想我一開始就說，嘿，利潤率擴張是一個目標，對吧？所以我們被推遲了，因為——當我這麼說的時候，我並沒有預料到 37 億美元的額外成本和貨幣逆風。

But I think the team is doing an excellent job working to offset a lot of that. And I think you saw it in this quarter. And -- but right around that '20 -- I'd say, 2017, 2018, 2020 period, our tissue margins in North America did kind of hit those rates. And so our goal right now is to get back into that range.

但我認為該團隊在抵消其中很大一部分方面做得非常出色。我想你在這個季度看到了它。而且——但就在 20 年代左右——我想說，2017 年、2018 年、2020 年期間，我們在北美的組織利潤率確實達到了這些水平。所以我們現在的目標是回到那個範圍內。

But certainly, with the strategy that I just outlined and with the overall strategy of the company, to elevate our categories and expand our markets, I think the long-term goal remains margin expansion through innovation and building up the categories.

但可以肯定的是，根據我剛才概述的戰略和公司的總體戰略，提升我們的品類並擴大我們的市場，我認為長期目標仍然是通過創新和建立品類來擴大利潤率。

Your next question is coming from Javier Escalante from Evercore.

你的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Javier Escalante。

Question is, I wonder, perhaps Nelson, if you guys have an estimate on how much pricing have you taken, which is put us kind of like a one-on-one basis relative to the cost that took $3.7 billion in cost. Do you have any estimate how much in the past 18 months, how much pricing you have taken?

問題是，我想知道，也許納爾遜，你們是否估計了你們採取了多少定價，相對於花費 37 億美元的成本，這讓我們有點像一對一的基礎。你有沒有估計在過去的 18 個月裡，你採取了多少定價？

Yes. Let me -- Javier, that's a great question. And it helps, build a bridge as to why where we're at right now and the recovery path that we've had on margins. So based on our outlook for this year and the guidance that we're providing, we would have -- we will be pricing -- we will be realizing revenue growth management of around 85% of that $3.7 billion, give or take, just to give you a sense of what we've put in place when this year is done 36 months through.

是的。讓我——哈維爾，這是一個很好的問題。它有助於建立一座橋樑，說明我們現在所處的位置以及我們在利潤率上的複甦之路。因此，根據我們今年的展望和我們提供的指導，我們將 - 我們將定價 - 我們將實現這 37 億美元中約 85% 的收入增長管理，只是為了在今年過去 36 個月後，讓您了解我們已經實施的措施。

So obviously, that doesn't get you there on a one-to-one basis to recover margins. And that's why our cost-saving initiatives in force come into play in addition to our accretive innovation, which is part of our design to value under the other initiatives that we have in place with the commercial team. But I hope that provides some perspective.

很明顯，這不會讓你在一對一的基礎上恢復利潤。這就是為什麼除了我們的增值創新之外，我們有效的成本節約舉措也發揮了作用，這是我們設計的一部分，以根據我們與商業團隊實施的其他舉措進行評估。但我希望這能提供一些觀點。

Yes, that's absolutely, very helpful. And then I'm going to have a little follow-up. If you look at external data, particularly in U.S. tissue, you see private label and Proctor, your main competitor, realizing more price mix. Is that real pricing? Or it's just basically that because you have the Scott business, you are seeing trade down within your portfolio under 4, you are realizing less pricing than what so for your competitors and private label?

是的，這絕對非常有幫助。然後我將進行一些跟進。如果您查看外部數據，尤其是在美國衛生紙中，您會看到自有品牌和您的主要競爭對手 Proctor 實現了更多的價格組合。那是真實的定價嗎？或者基本上是因為你有 Scott 業務，你看到你的投資組合中的交易下降到 4 以下，你意識到定價低於你的競爭對手和自有品牌？

Well, I think, Javier, I'm not exactly sure, but I suspect what you're also seeing -- you're going to see is also timing of pricing issues. I mean I think Nelson mentioned earlier, we priced relatively fast relative to other manufacturers. And so if you compare on a quarterly basis, I think you're going to see our pricing start to diminish maybe starting next quarter relative to others.

嗯，我想，哈維爾，我不太確定，但我懷疑你也看到了——你也會看到定價問題的時間安排。我的意思是我認為 Nelson 之前提到過，相對於其他製造商，我們的定價相對較快。因此，如果您按季度進行比較，我認為您會看到我們的定價可能從下個季度開始相對於其他公司開始下降。

But in a lot of categories, we are at least one, and in some cases, like diapers, 3 quarters ahead of the competition. And so -- so I think if you line it up that way, I think it's a tough -- it's not really an apples-to-apples comparison. On Scott, we have taken significant pricing. A few rounds, including double-digit pricing over the course at the end of 2021, all the way through 2022.

但在很多類別中，我們至少領先競爭對手 3 個季度，在某些情況下，例如尿布。所以 - 所以我認為如果你這樣排列，我認為這很難 - 這並不是一個真正的蘋果對蘋果的比較。在 Scott 上，我們採取了重大定價。幾輪，包括從 2021 年底到 2022 年的兩位數定價。

And including -- and I think -- well, in the first quarter as well, we took another round of pricing overall. And so I think the pricing has been extensive. I haven't looked at that specific issue, and so we may have to follow back up with you on that one.

包括——我認為——嗯，在第一季度，我們也進行了另一輪整體定價。因此，我認為定價範圍很廣。我還沒有研究那個具體的問題，所以我們可能不得不跟進你的那個問題。

And I do have a third one, if you don't mind. And it goes back to the Professional business. I saw in the presentation that you said that the business is back to 2019 levels. I believe that probably is sales or price, so pricing -- exactly.

如果你不介意的話，我還有第三個。它可以追溯到專業業務。我在介紹中看到您說業務回到了 2019 年的水平。我相信這可能是銷售或價格，所以定價 - 準確。

So if you can give us similarly, do you have an estimate on a volume basis, how much are you back given all these issues about vacancies and stuff like that? And if the volume is significantly -- still significantly below 2019, does it open opportunities for optimizing the size of that business?

所以，如果你能給我們類似的，你是否有一個基於數量的估計，考慮到所有這些關於職位空缺和類似問題的問題，你能得到多少？如果數量很大——仍遠低於 2019 年，它是否為優化該業務規模提供了機會？

Yes. So revenue is now above pre-pandemic levels, mostly because of pricing volume is still below, I would say, in the '80s, right? As a percentage, if you say, hey, the comparison is versus 2019 levels.

是的。所以收入現在高於大流行前的水平，主要是因為定價量仍然低於 80 年代的水平，對吧？作為百分比，如果你說，嘿，比較是與 2019 年的水平相比。

A couple of things. One is I don't -- I think I said this in a prior call, I think it was before you -- you started covering this. But I don't expect it to come all the way back because we all can see our own workplaces that the offices are not full. And with work from home, I don't expect that in the near term.

幾件事。一是我沒有——我想我在之前的電話中說過這個，我想那是在你之前——你開始報導這個了。但我不希望它一路回來，因為我們都可以看到我們自己的工作場所，辦公室沒有滿員。對於在家工作，我預計短期內不會出現這種情況。

Do we expect to get that volume back over time? Yes, in a different way, though. We have to pursue other channels and class of trade to build that business back. But do I expect to get that back over time? Or not even back, to grow our volume from where it is today? Yes.

我們是否期望隨著時間的推移恢復該數量？是的，但以不同的方式。我們必須尋求其他渠道和貿易類別來重建該業務。但我希望隨著時間的推移恢復它嗎？或者甚至不回來，從今天的地方增加我們的數量？是的。

In terms of structural changes, we -- there may be some tweaks for us. But the thing for us is we were using a lot of external capacity to kind of support our business during that period. And so I would say the fixed cost overhang is probably less than you might imagine.

在結構變化方面，我們 - 我們可能會有一些調整。但對我們來說，問題是我們在那個時期使用了大量外部能力來支持我們的業務。所以我想說，固定成本過剩可能比你想像的要少。

And the last question is coming from Steve Powers from Deutsche Bank.

最後一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Steve Powers。

So I might just ask one because we're short on time. But the one I want to ask first, just to clarify. So you talked about a lot of good things that I think we all see as evident in the first quarter, working in your favor and promise boding well for the year. But the guidance raise really only contemplates the $100 million relief in your commodity cost outlook.

所以我可能只問一個，因為我們時間不多了。但是我想先問一個，只是為了澄清一下。所以你談到了很多好事，我認為我們都認為第一季度很明顯，對你有利，並有望為今年帶來好兆頭。但實際上，提高指導僅考慮了商品價格前景中 1 億美元的減免。

All the other levers of upside really, implicitly in the guide, are either implied to mean revert lower or, I guess, provide you allowance to invest back against them. I just wanted to play that back and make sure that -- I'm not sure it's the wrong outlook. It seems prudent, but I just wanted to make sure that, that's sort of the right characterization.

實際上，指南中隱含的所有其他上行槓桿要么暗示意味著回落，要么我猜為您提供了對它們進行投資的餘地。我只是想回放一下並確保——我不確定這是錯誤的觀點。這似乎很謹慎，但我只是想確保，這是一種正確的描述。

Yes, definitely a preference to invest back, especially behind strong commercial programs and stuff that we have for this year, so -- which we're all very excited about. And as I was mentioning to Jason, let's see how it goes in the second quarter and definitely reserves the right to think about it again.

是的，絕對是投資回報的偏好，尤其是在強大的商業計劃和我們今年擁有的東西之後——我們都對此感到非常興奮。正如我向 Jason 提到的那樣，讓我們看看第二季度的情況如何，並且絕對保留再次考慮的權利。

Yes. Okay. And maybe just real quick, just some perspective on market share, you talked about it earlier. I think it's clear you're prioritizing margin recovery, probably especially so in consumer tissue. You seem pleased overall.

是的。好的。也許真的很快，只是對市場份額的一些看法，你之前談到過。我認為很明顯，您正在優先考慮利潤率恢復，尤其是在消費組織中。你看起來總體上很高興。

I think you mentioned Personal Care shares on a global basis were essentially holding or gaining in about half, half year. Your category country combinations. But we've seen, I guess, softer trends in the track data, which has created some intra-quarter controversies. So just maybe some perspective on that and where you see trends being a bit softer than you'd like or being a bit stronger, just to kind of help round us out relative to the data we all see?

我想你提到過全球範圍內的個人護理股票在大約一半、半年內基本上持有或上漲。您的類別國家/地區組合。但我猜，我們已經看到了賽道數據的疲軟趨勢，這在季度內引發了一些爭議。所以也許只是對此有一些看法，你看到趨勢比你想要的要軟一點或更強一點，只是為了幫助我們相對於我們所看到的數據進行全面了解？

You're exactly on the right, a great issue for us to focus on. I mean we're pleased overall with our start. And I'm definitely very pleased with the margin recovery. We're not pleased with our market share performance. And so in Personal Care, we were up an even in about half, a little softer than we would like overall.

你完全正確，這是我們要關注的一個重要問題。我的意思是我們對我們的開始總體上很滿意。我對利潤率的恢復非常滿意。我們對我們的市場份額表現不滿意。因此，在個人護理方面，我們的漲幅達到一半左右，比我們整體預期的要低一些。

And then if you say, hey, that was personal care. For the business overall, it was a little bit below that, right? And so we were coming off of 2020 and 2021 where we're up in over 2/3. And so we kind of get used to that. So we're not that pleased with about half or just slightly under half. And so we know we got to get better.

然後如果你說，嘿，那是個人護理。對於整體業務而言，它略低於此，對嗎？因此，我們從 2020 年和 2021 年開始，我們的增長超過 2/3。所以我們有點習慣了。所以我們對大約一半或略低於一半並不滿意。所以我們知道我們必須變得更好。

I would say though, Steve, it definitely comes with -- or the share softness definitely comes with moving fast on pricing. And what's happened is we've been -- other manufacturers have lagged significantly our pricing. I was just mentioning to Javier in some categories in North America diapers, for example. We didn't equalize on price until 9 months after our price -- our first price move.

不過，我要說的是，史蒂夫，它肯定伴隨著 - 或者股票疲軟肯定伴隨著快速定價。發生的事情是我們一直——其他製造商的定價明顯落後於我們。例如，我剛剛在北美尿布的某些類別中向 Javier 提及。直到我們的價格——我們的第一次價格變動後 9 個月，我們才在價格上進行了平衡。

And so I think there's been that lag effect that some competitors have used that interim period to kind of pick up a little share. That's part one. And then I'd say we're still working through a few hotspots. I mean, not everything is working perfectly within this company. And so we flagged last quarter. Hey, we've got some businesses in Southeast Asia. Certainly, you might understand with Eastern Europe and the ongoing effects of the war, we're still building our business back in Ukraine.

因此，我認為存在滯後效應，一些競爭對手利用這段過渡期獲得了一點份額。那是第一部分。然後我會說我們仍在努力解決一些熱點問題。我的意思是，並不是這家公司的一切都運轉良好。所以我們在上個季度做了標記。嘿，我們在東南亞有一些業務。當然，您可能了解東歐和戰爭的持續影響，我們仍在烏克蘭建立我們的業務。

And so there has been some softness in some markets. We're on it. But definitely, we earn the game for long-term market share gains, and that's an ongoing goal for us. And while the market share was okay in the quarter, we weren't happy with it.

因此，一些市場出現了一些疲軟。我們正在努力。但可以肯定的是，我們贏得比賽是為了長期的市場份額增長，這是我們的持續目標。雖然本季度的市場份額還不錯，但我們對此並不滿意。

Okay. Thank you all for taking the time would be with us today. Again, we feel very good about our solid start to the year, and we look forward to seeing you in the second quarter.

好的。謝謝大家今天抽出時間來和我們在一起。同樣，我們對今年的良好開局感到非常滿意，我們期待在第二季度與您見面。

Thank you, everyone. This concludes today's event. You may disconnect at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝大家。今天的活動到此結束。此時您可能會斷開連接，並度過美好的一天。感謝您的參與。