JetBlue Airways Corp (JBLU) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Lara. I would like to welcome everyone to the JetBlue Airways' Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

早上好。我叫拉拉。我歡迎大家參加捷藍航空 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。提醒一下，今天的通話正在錄音。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to JetBlue's Director of Investor Relations, (inaudible) Patel. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想將電話轉給捷藍航空投資者關係總監（聽不清）帕特爾。請繼續，先生。

Thanks, Lara. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining our second quarter 2023 earnings call. This morning, we issued our earnings release and a presentation that we will reference during this call. All of those documents are available on our website at investor.jetblue.com and on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov. In New York to discuss our results are Robin Hayes, our Chief Executive Officer; Joanna Geraghty, our President and Chief Operating Officer; and Ursula Hurley, our Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us for Q&A are Dave Clark, our Head of Revenue and Planning; and Andres Barry, President of JetBlue Travel Products.

謝謝，拉拉。大家早上好，感謝您參加我們的 2023 年第二季度財報電話會議。今天早上，我們發布了收益報告和演示文稿，我們將在本次電話會議中參考。所有這些文件均可在我們的網站 Investor.jetblue.com 和 SEC 網站 www.sec.gov 上獲取。我們的首席執行官 Robin Hayes 在紐約討論我們的業績； Joanna Geraghty，我們的總裁兼首席運營官；和我們的首席財務官烏蘇拉·赫爾利 (Ursula Hurley)。我們的收入和規劃主管戴夫·克拉克 (Dave Clark) 也加入了我們的問答環節。以及捷藍航空旅行產品總裁安德烈斯·巴里 (Andres Barry)。

This morning's call includes forward-looking statements about future events. During today's call, we will make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All such forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements.

今天早上的電話會議包括有關未來事件的前瞻性陳述。在今天的電話會議中，我們將根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的安全港條款做出前瞻性陳述。所有此類前瞻性陳述均受到風險和不確定性的影響，實際結果可能與實際結果存在重大差異這些陳述中明示或暗示的。

Please refer to our most recent earnings release and our most recent 10-K and other filings for a more detailed discussion of the risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking statements including, amongst others, the COVID-19 pandemic, risks associated with execution of our strategic operating plans, our extremely competitive industry, fuel availability and pricing, our planned winddown of the Northeast Alliance, the outcome of the lawsuit filed related to our merger with Spirit Airlines and various other risks and uncertainties related to JetBlue's acquisition of Spirit.

請參閱我們最新的收益發布以及我們最近的 10-K 和其他文件，以更詳細地討論可能導致實際結果與我們的前瞻性聲明中包含的結果存在重大差異的風險和不確定性，包括但不限於、COVID-19 大流行、與執行我們的戰略運營計劃相關的風險、我們競爭極其激烈的行業、燃料供應和定價、我們計劃逐步關閉東北聯盟、與我們與精神航空合併相關的訴訟結果以及各種與捷藍航空收購 Spirit 相關的其他風險和不確定性。

The statements made during this call are made only as of the date of the call, and other than as may be required by law, we undertake no obligation to update the information. Investors should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements.

本次電話會議期間所做的聲明僅截至電話會議之日作出，除法律要求外，我們不承擔更新信息的義務。投資者不應過度依賴這些前瞻性陳述。

Also, during the course of our call, we may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. These measures should not be considered in isolation from or as a substitute for financial information prepared in accordance with GAAP. For an explanation and reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the corresponding GAAP measures, please refer to the tables at the end of our earnings release, a copy of which is available on our website and on sec.gov. Please note that our definition of these measures may differ from similarly titled measures presented by other companies.

此外，在電話會議期間，我們可能會討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。這些措施不應孤立地考慮或替代根據公認會計原則準備的財務信息。有關這些非 GAAP 衡量標準與相應 GAAP 衡量標準的解釋和調節，請參閱我們收益發布末尾的表格，該表格的副本可在我們的網站和 sec.gov 上獲取。請注意，我們對這些措施的定義可能與其他公司提出的類似標題的措施不同。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Robin Hayes, JetBlue's CEO.

現在我想將電話轉給捷藍航空首席執行官羅賓·海斯 (Robin Hayes)。

Thanks, Kush, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. I'd like to start by offering a resounding and heartfelt thank you to our 25,000 crew members for their incredible dedication, patience and perseverance. I've been at JetBlue now nearly 15 years, and this is the most exceptionally difficult summer that I can remember, and our crew members have worked tirelessly to serve our customers as air traffic control challenges and weather issues have affected tens of thousands of flights industry-wide. Our crew members have gone above and beyond in helping our customers deal with this summer's problems, and we very much appreciate their efforts every day, but especially during this very challenging period.

謝謝庫什，大家早上好。感謝您今天加入我們。首先，我謹向我們的 25,000 名船員表示衷心的感謝，感謝他們令人難以置信的奉獻精神、耐心和毅力。我在捷藍航空工作了近 15 年，這是我記憶中最艱難的一個夏天，我們的機組人員不知疲倦地工作，為我們的客戶提供服務，因為空中交通管制挑戰和天氣問題已經影響了數以萬計的航班全行業。我們的工作人員竭盡全力幫助客戶解決今年夏天的問題，我們非常感謝他們每天的努力，尤其是在這個充滿挑戰的時期。

For the second quarter, we delivered revenue and cost performance within our guided ranges. I am particularly pleased that we delivered all-time record quarterly revenues, including record revenues in each month of the quarter as well as our sixth consecutive quarter of meeting or exceeding our cost expectations. As a result, we reported adjusted pretax income of $236 million, adjusted pretax margin of 9.1% and adjusted earnings per share of $0.45, which was at the top of top end of our guidance range. These strong results demonstrate our momentum in this post-COVID era.

第二季度，我們的收入和成本績效都在我們的指導範圍內。我特別高興的是，我們實現了創紀錄的季度收入，包括該季度每個月的創紀錄收入，以及我們連續第六個季度達到或超過我們的成本預期。因此，我們公佈的調整後稅前收入為 2.36 億美元，調整後稅前利潤率為 9.1%，調整後每股收益為 0.45 美元，處於我們指導範圍的上限。這些強勁的業績證明了我們在後新冠時代的發展勢頭。

Turning to Slide 5. On our first quarter earnings call in April, we predicted the summer would be very challenging. To prepare, we made significant investments to build resiliency into operation, which helped us to manage costs related to unexpected schedule disruptions and enabled us to deliver our second quarter results. We also received a very disappointing NEA decision during the quarter and have been working to adjust for the loss of that agreement. And finally, as you've heard from others, the transitory shifts in post-COVID customer demand are also affecting our results. Therefore, as we look ahead, we've recalibrated our expectations for the remainder of the year. While the current environment is extremely dynamic, we are executing plans to offset these challenges, as we'll discuss.

轉向幻燈片 5。在 4 月份的第一季度財報電話會議上，我們預測夏季將非常具有挑戰性。為了做好準備，我們進行了大量投資來增強運營彈性，這有助於我們管理與意外計劃中斷相關的成本，並使我們能夠交付第二季度業績。我們在本季度還收到了國家能源局的一項非常令人失望的決定，並一直在努力調整該協議的損失。最後，正如您從其他人那裡聽到的那樣，新冠疫情后客戶需求的短暫變化也影響了我們的業績。因此，展望未來，我們重新調整了對今年剩餘時間的預期。儘管當前的環境極其動態，但我們正在執行計劃來應對這些挑戰，正如我們將討論的那樣。

Firstly, and as previously disclosed, we made the difficult decision not to appeal the unfavorable NEA court ruling. This allows us to turn our full focus to our combination with Spirit, which we believe is the best and most effective way to increase competition in the industry and bring the JetBlue effect to more customers across the country.

首先，正如之前所披露的，我們做出了一個艱難的決定，不對 NEA 法院的不利裁決提出上訴。這使我們能夠將全部注意力轉向與 Spirit 的合併，我們相信這是增加行業競爭並將捷藍航空效應帶給全國更多客戶的最佳和最有效的方式。

However, our decision to terminate the NEA will result in a near-term drag on margins as we lose key codeshare revenue. But certain NEA costs will linger due to the necessary gradual wind down of our NEA-driven capacity growth. We expect a $0.20 to $0.25 EPS headwind to our full year outlook and we expect to see the biggest impact in Q4.

然而，我們終止 NEA 的決定將導致近期利潤率受到拖累，因為我們失去了關鍵的代碼共享收入。但由於我們 NEA 驅動的產能增長必須逐漸放緩，某些 NEA 成本將持續存在。我們預計全年每股收益將面臨 0.20 至 0.25 美元的阻力，並且我們預計第四季度的影響最大。

As we head into 2024, we will be able to mitigate the impact as we are increasingly able to redeploy capacity currently underperforming in NEA markets to high-margin leisure opportunities throughout our network. We have already begun to reflect this initial capacity redeployment in our selling schedules, and we are planning an orderly but gradual wind down of the NEA driven capacity growth through next summer to ensure that we continue to support our customers.

進入 2024 年，我們將能夠減輕影響，因為我們越來越有能力將目前在 NEA 市場表現不佳的產能重新部署到整個網絡中的高利潤休閒機會。我們已經開始在我們的銷售計劃中反映這種最初的產能重新部署，並​​且我們計劃在明年夏季有序但逐步地減少 NEA 驅動的產能增長，以確保我們繼續為客戶提供支持。

As I mentioned, we are facing headwinds from weather and ATC in the Northeast which have been much, much worse than we planned for when we reduced our New York departures by 10% for this summer. And we are seeing ATC programs stay in place longer than we've ever seen before for similar weather events, which is driving hundreds of delayed flights a day for JetBlue alone. To put it in perspective, when we look at the FAA's data on the worst industry cancellation events for thunderstorms at JFK, the worst 4 events since 2014 happened in late June and early July of this year. And while we don't know what the ATC impact will be in August, we have assumed that they will be similar to July.

正如我所提到的，我們正面臨來自東北部天氣和 ATC 的不利因素，這比我們今年夏天將紐約出發航班減少 10% 時的計劃嚴重得多。我們發現，空中交通管制計劃在類似天氣事件中的執行時間比以往任何時候都長，僅捷藍航空每天就有數百個航班延誤。客觀地說，當我們查看美國聯邦航空局關於肯尼迪機場雷暴導致的最嚴重行業取消事件的數據時，我們發現自 2014 年以來最嚴重的 4 起事件發生在今年 6 月底和 7 月初。雖然我們不知道 ATC 在 8 月份會產生什麼影響，但我們假設它們將與 7 月份類似。

These real-time disruptions generate cost pressures beyond our initial planned investments and also impact revenue due to higher cancellations, which drive refunds and reduce sellable capacity. Taken together, we expect ATC constraints through Q3 to result in a $0.20 to $0.25 headwind to our full year EPS outlook.

這些實時中斷產生的成本壓力超出了我們最初計劃的投資，並且由於取消訂單增多而影響了收入，從而推動了退款並減少了可銷售產能。綜上所述，我們預計第三季度的 ATC 限制將導致我們全年 EPS 前景出現 0.20 至 0.25 美元的阻力。

Our Q2 results, though, do show the investments we made are making a difference as our June completion factor in New York outperformed the average of other airlines with a more significant footprint in the market. But it is coming at an incredible cost that is not sustainable over the long term, and as we are pulling all the levers under our control to help drive improvement. As we look to next summer, while the wind down of the NEA driven growth in New York will help reduce our Northeast exposure, we will also need to see substantial improvements in ATC performance and additional industry slot relief to ensure we can deliver the operational experience our customers deserve.

不過，我們第二季度的業績確實表明我們所做的投資正在發揮作用，因為我們 6 月份在紐約的完成率優於其他在市場上佔有更重要地位的航空公司的平均水平。但它的成本令人難以置信，從長遠來看是不可持續的，而且我們正在拉動我們控制下的所有槓桿來幫助推動改進。展望明年夏天，雖然紐約 NEA 驅動的增長逐漸結束將有助於減少我們在東北部的風險，但我們還需要看到 ATC 性能的大幅改善和額外的行業艙位緩解，以確保我們能夠提供運營體驗我們的客戶應得的。

Finally, we've seen a greater-than-expected geographic shift in pent-up COVID demand as the strength in demand for long international travel this summer has pressured demand for shorter-haul travel. We estimate this shift away from domestic travel is negatively impacting our full year EPS by $0.15 to $0.20. However, we expect this trend to improve as we move out of the peak summer travel period and into Q4, particularly around the winter holidays when demand typically favors VFR travel, which is not as susceptible to these shifting trends.

最後，我們看到被壓抑的新冠疫情需求發生了超出預期的地理變化，因為今年夏天長途國際旅行需求的強勁給短途旅行的需求帶來了壓力。我們估計，這種遠離國內旅行的轉變將對我們全年每股收益產生 0.15 美元至 0.20 美元的負面影響。然而，我們預計，隨著夏季旅行高峰期結束並進入第四季度，這一趨勢將會改善，特別是在冬季假期前後，此時需求通常有利於 VFR 旅行，而 VFR 旅行不太容易受到這些變化趨勢的影響。

As we head into 2024, we will be more aggressive in redeploying capacity to expected pockets of future demand, areas where our VFR and leisure orientation give us an advantage in the marketplace.

進入 2024 年，我們將更加積極地將產能重新部署到預期的未來需求領域，這些領域是我們的 VFR 和休閒定位為我們帶來市場優勢的領域。

Given these revenue headwinds, we are updating our full year earnings outlook to $0.05 to $0.40 of EPS. Let me be clear. We are not satisfied with this change, and as I've described we are taking action on all of these issues. I also want to emphasize that our first -- that our full year unit cost outlook remains intact as our team has been successful in offsetting the incremental costs associated with these challenges. We consider the coming quarters a reset as we adjust for the loss of the NEA and for the overall shift we and others are seeing in post-COVID demand.

鑑於這些收入逆風，我們將全年盈利預期更新為 EPS 0.05 至 0.40 美元。讓我說清楚。我們對這一變化並不滿意，正如我所描述的，我們正在對所有這些問題採取行動。我還想強調，我們的第一點——我們的全年單位成本前景保持不變，因為我們的團隊已經成功地抵消了與這些挑戰相關的增量成本。我們認為未來幾個季度將進行重置，因為我們會根據 NEA 的損失以及我們和其他人在新冠疫情后需求中看到的整體轉變進行調整。

Over the longer term, we continue to believe we have the right building blocks in place, and we remain laser focused on rebuilding our earnings power and adding incremental value to our shareholders.

從長遠來看，我們仍然相信我們擁有正確的構建模塊，並且我們仍然專注於重建我們的盈利能力並為股東增加增量價值。

Moving to Slide 6. I want to spend a few moments reviewing these building blocks that are positioning JetBlue for long-term success. First and foremost, it's a transformational nature of our planned acquisition of Spirit. Combining with Spirit will not only turbocharge our organic growth plan, creating a truly national low fare challenger to bring more competition to the industry, but it also adds geographic diversity to our network, which will improve our network relevance and increase our operational resilience. We look forward to bringing more of JetBlue's low fares and award-winning service to more customers and more markets.

轉到幻燈片 6。我想花一些時間回顧一下這些使捷藍航空取得長期成功的基石。首先也是最重要的，這是我們計劃獲得精神的變革性本質。與 Spirit 的合併不僅將推動我們的有機增長計劃，創造一個真正的全國性低票價挑戰者，為行業帶來更多競爭，而且還增加了我們網絡的地理多樣性，這將提高我們的網絡相關性並增強我們的運營彈性。我們期待為更多的客戶和更多的市場帶來更多捷藍航空的低價票價和屢獲殊榮的服務。

Next, our large footprint in the slot-constrained New York market is a substantial long-term asset for JetBlue. And even as we wind down the NEA, New York will still remain our largest focus city with well over 200 departures per day. While New York was significantly impacted by COVID and therefore has taken longer to recover, it has historically produced long above system average margins and is now improving faster than our network average. The closing of the gap will drive continued improvement of our net revenue and margin performance.

其次，我們在航班時刻有限的紐約市場的巨大足跡對於捷藍航空來說是一項重要的長期資產。即使 NEA 逐漸結束，紐約仍將是我們最大的重點城市，每天有超過 200 趟航班出發。雖然紐約受到新冠疫情的嚴重影響，因此需要更長的時間才能恢復，但它的利潤率歷來遠高於系統平均水平，現在的改善速度也快於我們的網絡平均水平。差距的縮小將推動我們的淨收入和利潤表現的持續改善。

We're also driving long-term structural improvements in our profitability from our redesigned TrueBlue program, which continues to see double-digit membership growth and, of course, JetBlue Travel Products.

我們還通過重新設計的 TrueBlue 計劃推動盈利能力的長期結構性改善，該計劃的會員人數持續呈兩位數增長，當然還有捷藍航空旅行產品。

Finally, we continue to deliver outstanding progress on cost execution. We have seen great success from our structural cost program, which is on track to deliver $150 million to $200 million in savings by the year-end 2024. We also continue to make strides in our ongoing fleet modernization program as we replace our E190 fleet with the margin-accretive A220s.

最後，我們繼續在成本執行方面取得顯著進展。我們的結構性成本計劃取得了巨大成功，預計到 2024 年底可節省 1.5 億至 2 億美元。我們還在持續的機隊現代化計劃中繼續取得進展，我們將 E190 機隊替換為利潤增值的 A220。

I'd like to close by again thanking our crew members for delivering our second quarter results. While we face near-term headwinds, we remain focused on controlling what we can control and work towards improving margins and driving profitable growth. I remain optimistic about our future as our unique combination of low fares and great service continues to distinguish us in the market.

最後，我想再次感謝我們的工作人員交付了我們第二季度的業績。儘管我們面臨短期阻力，但我們仍然專注於控制我們可以控制的事情，並努力提高利潤率和推動利潤增長。我對我們的未來保持樂觀，因為我們獨特的低票價和優質服務組合將繼續使我們在市場上脫穎而出。

With that, over to you, Joanna.

就這樣，交給你了，喬安娜。

Thank you, Robin. I would also like to thank our crew members for their continued commitment to our customers as we navigate this difficult operating environment. Although the summer has proven challenging, your hard work is making a difference.

謝謝你，羅賓。我還要感謝我們的機組人員在我們應對這一困難的運營環境時對客戶的持續承諾。儘管夏天充滿挑戰，但您的努力正在發揮作用。

Through early June, we saw nice operational improvements year-over-year. Our completion factor and on-time performance were middle of the industry and we were beginning to see improved productivity. However, as we stepped into June, despite meaningful structural investments including substantially more pilot and in-flight reserves, more spare aircraft and more -- and improved SSC tools, in addition to our 10% schedule reduction in the New York area airports, it was still not enough to overcome the combined weather and more restrictive ATC programs. Of course, we know how to manage extreme weather conditions and are performing as well as others in the Northeast during these events. But the sheer number of these events and their duration is among the most challenging that we've ever seen.

到六月初，我們看到運營狀況同比有了很大改善。我們的完成率和準時表現處於行業中間，我們開始看到生產力的提高。然而，當我們進入 6 月時，儘管我們進行了有意義的結構性投資，包括大幅增加飛行員和飛行儲備、更多備用飛機等，以及改進的 SSC 工具，此外，我們還將紐約地區機場的班次減少 10%，但仍然不足以克服天氣和更嚴格的空中交通管制計劃的影響。當然，我們知道如何應對極端天氣條件，並且在這些事件中的表現與東北地區的其他公司一樣好。但這些事件的數量之多及其持續時間是我們所見過的最具挑戰性的事件之一。

Our teams are doing an excellent job navigating this environment and our investments are enabling us to recover more quickly. This, in turn, allows us to better protect completion factor coming out of these events. However, the fact remains our network exposure to this challenged geography is the highest in the industry.

我們的團隊在應對這種環境方面做得非常出色，我們的投資使我們能夠更快地恢復。反過來，這使我們能夠更好地保護這些事件的完成因素。然而，事實仍然是，我們的網絡在這個充滿挑戰的地區的暴露程度是業內最高的。

Turning to Slide 7 -- sorry, Slide 8. For the second quarter of 2023, capacity grew 5.8% year-over-year, around the midpoint of our guidance. This capped a strong first half in which we delivered a 3 point year-over-year improvement in our completion factor and a 6-point improvement in our on-time performance.

轉向幻燈片 7——抱歉，是幻燈片 8。2023 年第二季度，產能同比增長 5.8%，約為我們指導值的中點。這為上半年的強勁表現畫上了圓滿的句號，我們的完成率同比提高了 3 個百分點，準時表現同比提高了 6 個百分點。

Our strong operational performance in the first half of the year helped offset the more than 0.5 point of adverse impact from the severe ATC-led restrictions beginning in mid-June. While our proactive operational investments in anticipation of a challenging environment this summer enabled us to mitigate 30 days in a row of a regular operations during the month of June into July, they have not been enough to overcome even greater challenges in July, which reduced our July completion factor by 4 points. We are assuming a similar level of operational disruption will continue in August and now expect third quarter capacity to be up 5.5% to 8.5% year-over-year.

我們上半年強勁的運營表現幫助抵消了 6 月中旬開始的 ATC 主導的嚴格限制帶來的超過 0.5 個百分點的不利影響。儘管我們針對今年夏天充滿挑戰的環境進行了積極的運營投資，使我們能夠減少 6 月至 7 月期間連續 30 天的常規運營，但這些投資還不足以克服 7 月的更大挑戰，從而減少了我們的運營成本。 7 月完成率提高 4 個百分點。我們假設類似水平的運營中斷將在 8 月份持續，目前預計第三季度產能將同比增長 5.5% 至 8.5%。

We'd like to thank our colleagues with the FAA for the close partnership and transparency as we work to plan for the operation on challenging ATC days and better understand what is behind decisions to implement severe ATC restrictions on certain days. While we are not alone and expect these delays to ease in the coming years as the FAA works to rebuild staffing and experience to more appropriate levels, our Northeast-centric footprint makes us disproportionately exposed to these challenges.

我們要感謝美國聯邦航空局 (FAA) 的同事們在我們努力規劃具有挑戰性的 ATC 日子的操作並更好地了解在某些日子實施嚴格的 ATC 限制的決定背後的原因時提供的密切合作夥伴關係和透明度。雖然我們並不孤單，並且預計隨著美國聯邦航空管理局致力於將人員配備和經驗重建到更合適的水平，這些延誤在未來幾年會得到緩解，但我們以東北為中心的足跡使我們不成比例地面臨這些挑戰。

Turning to revenue. In the second quarter, we grew revenue by 6.7% year-over-year, above the midpoint of our guidance range and driven by strength in [Latin] leisure, VFR and transatlantic demand. The demand environment remains healthy overall, characterized by double-digit growth in RASM compared to 2019. Our transatlantic service, in particular, has performed extremely well and driven the strongest year-over-year revenue of all geographies in our network. We look forward to continuing to diversify geographically by expanding our transatlantic network. And later this month, we will launch service to our third transatlantic Blue City, Amsterdam. We expect to continue on this path in the coming years as we take additional deliveries of our A321LR aircraft.

轉向收入。在[拉丁]休閒、VFR 和跨大西洋需求強勁的推動下，第二季度我們的收入同比增長 6.7%，高於我們指導範圍的中點。需求環境總體保持健康，其特點是 RASM 與 2019 年相比實現了兩位數增長。尤其是我們的跨大西洋服務表現非常出色，並推動了我們網絡中所有地區最強勁的同比收入。我們期待通過擴大我們的跨大西洋網絡來繼續實現地域多元化。本月晚些時候，我們將推出飛往第三個跨大西洋藍色城市阿姆斯特丹的航班。隨著我們接收更多 A321LR 飛機，我們預計在未來幾年將繼續沿著這條道路前進。

We also continue to see healthy demand across much of our domestic network. However, the demand recovery in our largest market of New York City, while showing sequential improvement, continues to lag that of other geographies, in line with the area's slower economic recovery compared to the rest of the country. This slower recovery, coupled with our NEA-driven capacity growth and reduced schedule flexibility due to slots, has pressured our New York margins. While the gap is improving, our New York margins are still lagging 2019 levels by high single digits. This is a sharp contrast from the rest of our network, which exceeded 2019 margins during the second quarter. To be clear, we do have many attractive opportunities and we'll redeploy capacity into these higher-performing geographies as we unwind our NEA growth in New York.

我們還繼續看到我們國內大部分網絡的健康需求。然而，我們最大的市場紐約市的需求復蘇雖然呈現環比改善，但仍落後於其他地區，這與該地區經濟復甦較全國其他地區緩慢的情況一致。復甦速度較慢，加上 NEA 驅動的運力增長以及航班時刻導致的時間表靈活性降低，給我們紐約的利潤率帶來了壓力。雖然差距正在縮小，但我們紐約的利潤率仍落後於 2019 年的水平，高個位數。這與我們網絡的其他部分形成鮮明對比，我們網絡的其他部分在第二季度的利潤率超過了 2019 年。需要明確的是，我們確實有許多有吸引力的機會，隨著我們放鬆紐約的 NEA 增長，我們將把產能重新部署到這些表現較高的地區。

As we head into the third quarter, we continue to see many of the same trends, including strong demand during peak periods. However, during off-peak periods, we are now seeing demand trends normalize. This contrasts with the same period last year when we saw extremely strong pent-up COVID demand across our entire network during both peak and off-peak periods.

當我們進入第三季度時，我們繼續看到許多相同的趨勢，包括高峰時期的強勁需求。然而，在非高峰時期，我們現在看到需求趨勢正常化。這與去年同期形成鮮明對比，當時我們在整個網絡的高峰期和非高峰期都看到了極其強勁的被壓抑的新冠病毒需求。

As a result, while load factors remain very strong, we've seen fares normalizing back towards 2019 levels. In the third quarter, we expect revenues to be down 4% to 8% year-over-year. In addition to the revenue pressures from the NEA unwind process, ATC challenges and demand shift to long-haul international travel, we are also cycling against a very difficult revenue comparison as last year in Q3, we delivered revenue 23% above 2019 levels, more than double the industry average. For the full year, we are now forecasting revenue to be up 6% to 9% year-over-year.

因此，儘管客座率仍然非常強勁，但我們看到票價已恢復正常，回到 2019 年的水平。我們預計第三季度收入將同比下降 4% 至 8%。除了 NEA 放鬆流程、ATC 挑戰和需求轉向長途國際旅行帶來的收入壓力外，我們還面臨著非常困難的收入比較，去年第三季度，我們的收入比 2019 年水平高出 23%，更多是行業平均水平的兩倍以上。我們目前預測全年收入將同比增長 6% 至 9%。

Finally, our loyalty program is an area of continued strength as loyalty revenue hit a record level, up 21% year-over-year in the second quarter, and continues to become a bigger piece of our revenue story. In the second quarter, we relaunched our redesigned TrueBlue program, which offers even more ways for our customers to engage with us and earn points. And we saw double-digit year-over-year increases in active members, enrollments and co-brand acquisitions.

最後，我們的忠誠度計劃是一個持續強勢的領域，忠誠度收入達到創紀錄的水平，第二季度同比增長 21%，並繼續成為我們收入故事的重要組成部分。在第二季度，我們重新啟動了重新設計的 TrueBlue 計劃，該計劃為我們的客戶提供了更多與我們互動並賺取積分的方式。我們看到活躍會員、註冊人數和聯合品牌收購量同比出現兩位數增長。

Co-brand spend had its best quarter ever, and we expect to reach record contributions from our Barclays co-brand portfolio this year as member engagement continues to grow and as we continue to expand our loyalty ecosystem. We're excited by the growth these enhancements are delivering as part of our multiyear journey in evolving our TrueBlue program and closing the gap to our peers.

聯合品牌支出經歷了有史以來最好的季度，隨著會員參與度的持續增長以及我們繼續擴大我們的忠誠度生態系統，我們預計今年巴克萊聯合品牌組合的貢獻將達到創紀錄的水平。我們對這些增強功能所帶來的增長感到興奮，這是我們多年來不斷發展 TrueBlue 計劃並縮小與同行差距的過程的一部分。

I'd like to close by once again thanking our crew members for everything they have done to serve our customers in very stressful situations. While we are facing near-term headwinds amid a challenging operational backdrop, we are focused on taking action and pulling all levers at our disposal to minimize the impact to our customers and to our crew members. Together, we will build a better and stronger JetBlue for all stakeholders.

最後，我想再次感謝我們的工作人員在非常緊張的情況下為服務客戶所做的一切。雖然我們在充滿挑戰的運營背景下面臨短期阻力，但我們致力於採取行動並動用一切手段，盡量減少對客戶和機組人員的影響。我們將共同為所有利益相關者打造一個更好、更強大的捷藍航空。

With that, over to you, Ursula.

就這樣，交給你了，烏蘇拉。

Thank you, Joanna. I'd like to add my thanks to our crew members for all their hard work and dedication. Our second quarter results are a testament to the impact their efforts are having on the operation and on the cost side.

謝謝你，喬安娜。我謹向我們的船員表示感謝，感謝他們的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。我們第二季度的業績證明了他們的努力對運營和成本方面產生的影響。

Turning to Slide 10. As Robin mentioned, I am pleased that this quarter marks the sixth consecutive quarter where we met or exceeded our quarterly cost guidance, an outcome I am particularly proud of given the increased cost pressures we faced as we navigated an exceptionally challenging operational environment in June. Specifically, the second quarter faced 1 point of CASM ex fuel pressure from the significant investments we made across our operation to boost resiliency as well as an incremental 1 point of CASM ex pressure as the ATC challenges we faced in June were more severe than expected, which resulted in lengthier delays, increased cancellations and a lower completion factor.

轉向幻燈片 10。正如 Robin 提到的，我很高興本季度標誌著我們連續第六個季度達到或超過了季度成本指導，鑑於我們在應對異常具有挑戰性的過程中面臨著日益增加的成本壓力，我對此結果感到特別自豪六月份的運營環境。具體來說，第二季度面臨著 1 個百分點的 CASM 燃油壓力（來自我們為提高彈性而在整個運營過程中進行的重大投資）以及增量 1 個百分點的 CASM 燃油壓力，因為我們 6 月份面臨的 ATC 挑戰比預期更為嚴峻，這導致了更長的延誤、更多的取消和更低的完成率。

Despite these headwinds, our team's laser focus and execution enabled us to deliver second quarter CASM ex in line with our expectations as our investments to enhance operational planning and build resiliency into our schedule successfully enabled us to exert greater control over variable costs such as labor premiums and disruption-related costs. We also continue to successfully implement our structural cost program, supporting efforts to mitigate cost pressures related to maintenance and rents and landing fees. We remain on track to drive approximately $70 million in cost reduction this year and $150 million to $200 million in cumulative cost savings through 2024.

儘管存在這些不利因素，我們團隊的高度專注和執行力使我們能夠按照我們的預期交付第二季度的 CASM ex，因為我們對加強運營規劃和在時間表中建立彈性的投資成功地使我們能夠更好地控制勞動力溢價等可變成本以及與中斷相關的成本。我們還繼續成功實施我們的結構性成本計劃，支持減輕與維護、租金和著陸費相關的成本壓力的努力。今年我們仍有望實現約 7000 萬美元的成本削減，到 2024 年累計成本節省 1.5 億至 2 億美元。

We expect structural cost program savings in the second half of 2023 and throughout 2024 to be driven by 3 main areas: enterprise planning initiatives, technology-based solutions aimed at enhancing frontline productivity and maintenance optimization of our midlife aircraft. Additionally, we continue to expect our fleet modernization program to generate $75 million of cost savings through 2024 as we replace our E190 fleet with margin-accretive A220s. We have already achieved over half of the expected savings from this program with 12 E190s retired to date, including 7 currently parked and 5 that we have sold.

我們預計 2023 年下半年和 2024 年全年的結構性成本計劃節省將由 3 個主要領域推動：企業規劃舉措、旨在提高一線生產力的基於技術的解決方案以及中年飛機的維護優化。此外，我們仍然預計，到 2024 年，我們的機隊現代化計劃將節省 7500 萬美元的成本，因為我們用利潤豐厚的 A220 機隊取代了 E190 機隊。我們已經實現了該計劃一半以上的預期節省，迄今為止已退役 12 輛 E190，其中 7 輛目前停放，5 輛已售出。

Looking to the third quarter, we are forecasting CASM ex fuel to increase 2.5% to 5.5% year-over-year. As Robin noted, unwinding the NEA will result in a near-term drag on margins as the cost benefit will lag the immediate loss of codeshare revenues. As we gradually redeploy our NEA related capacity and optimize our schedules for this new normal, we expect to see a corresponding improvement in costs. For the full year, we remain on track to execute on our CASM ex fuel target of up 1.5% to 4.5% despite an additional 1.5 points of CASM ex headwinds for the full year from the ATC challenges versus our original expectation. We are seeing exceptional cost headwinds, but we are working hard to find offsets and to ensure we are delivering on the cost guidance we've set out at the start of the year.

展望第三季度，我們預計 CASM（不含燃料）同比增長 2.5% 至 5.5%。正如 Robin 指出的那樣，解除 NEA 將在短期內拖累利潤率，因為成本效益將滯後於代碼共享收入的直接損失。隨著我們針對新常態逐步重新部署NEA相關產能並優化時間表，我們預計成本將得到相應改善。就全年而言，儘管 ATC 挑戰導致全年 CASM 前燃油增長目標比我們最初的預期增加了 1.5 個百分點，但我們仍然有望實現 CASM 前燃油增長 1.5% 至 4.5% 的目標。我們看到了巨大的成本阻力，但我們正在努力尋找抵消措施，並確保我們能夠實現年初制定的成本指導。

As a reminder, our full year cost outlook implies a step-up in year-over-year CASM ex in the second half of the year, primarily driven by 2 factors: an additional step up tied to our pilot agreement, which is about 3 points total year-over-year in the third quarter and 4 points in the fourth quarter; and the timing of maintenance, which is about 2 points of year-over-year in the fourth quarter. As Robin mentioned, we now expect to generate earnings per share between $0.05 and $0.40. This is not an outcome we are satisfied with. And I want to reiterate that we are taking action to offset these temporary headwinds as we work towards restoring our long-term earnings power and delivering profitable growth for our shareholders.

提醒一下，我們的全年成本展望意味著下半年 CASM 成本將同比上升，這主要是由兩個因素驅動的：與我們的試點協議相關的額外上升，約為 3第三季度總積分同比增加，第四季度同比增加4分；以及檢修時間，第四季度同比下降2個點左右。正如 Robin 提到的，我們現在預計每股收益在 0.05 美元到 0.40 美元之間。這不是我們滿意的結果。我想重申，我們正在採取行動抵消這些暫時的不利因素，努力恢復我們的長期盈利能力並為股東帶來盈利增長。

Turning to Slide 11. We closed the second quarter with $2.4 billion in liquidity, including our $600 million revolving credit facility, which remains undrawn. We continue to take a conservative approach to managing liquidity as we step up our fleet modernization efforts. We have been financing recent aircraft deliveries and have committed financing in place for approximately $550 million year-to-date, of which approximately $300 million was raised in the first half of the year. We took delivery of 4 new aircraft in the second quarter and 1 in July, bringing our year-to-date total to 7 new aircraft. We expect to take delivery of 12 additional aircraft through the end of the year for a total of 19 new deliveries this year.

轉向幻燈片 11。第二季度結束時，我們擁有 24 億美元的流動資金，其中包括尚未提取的 6 億美元循環信貸額度。在加強機隊現代化工作的同時，我們繼續採取保守的方法來管理流動性。我們一直在為最近的飛機交付提供融資，並承諾今年迄今已到位融資約 5.5 億美元，其中約 3 億美元是在今年上半年籌集的。我們在第二季度接收了 4 架新飛機，在 7 月份接收了 1 架新飛機，使我們今年迄今的新飛機總數達到 7 架。我們預計到今年年底將再交付 12 架飛機，今年新交付飛機總數為 19 架。

Finally, we continue to look at hedging opportunities to manage risk. In the second quarter, we took advantage of renewed price weakness to layer on some additional protection for the fourth quarter of 2023. And as of today, we have hedged approximately 30% of our expected fuel consumption for the second half of the year.

最後，我們繼續尋找對沖機會來管理風險。第二季度，我們利用價格再度疲軟的機會，為 2023 年第四季度提供了一些額外的保護。截至今天，我們已經對沖了下半年預期燃料消耗的約 30%。

Turning to Slide 12. Our updated earnings outlook reflects the near-term headwinds we are facing: the NEA termination, ATC constraints and a temporary shift to long-haul international travel this summer. However, we are not standing still. We are focused on controlling what we can control and executing our plans to address these challenges. On the revenue side, we are leveraging the strength of our network to shift capacity from New York in the near term where we can. On the cost side, we remain acutely focused on pulling every lever at our disposal: efficient utilization and planning, technology upgrades, fleet modernization and our structural cost program. And we are also working closely with the FAA to identify solutions to help ease disruptions next summer.

轉向幻燈片 12。我們更新的盈利前景反映了我們面臨的近期阻力：NEA 終止、ATC 限制以及今年夏天暫時轉向長途國際旅行。然而，我們並沒有停滯不前。我們專注於控制我們可以控制的事情並執行我們的計劃來應對這些挑戰。在收入方面，我們正在利用我們網絡的優勢，在短期內盡可能地從紐約轉移產能。在成本方面，我們仍然高度關注利用我們可以利用的一切槓桿：高效利用和規劃、技術升級、機隊現代化和我們的結構成本計劃。我們還與美國聯邦航空局密切合作，尋找解決方案，以幫助緩解明年夏天的干擾。

Despite the headwinds, I'm optimistic about the trajectory of the business. Our team's ability to continue to execute under these very challenging circumstances, coupled with the Spirit combination, puts us solidly on a path towards creating significant long-term value for our owners and all our stakeholders.

儘管存在阻力，但我對業務的發展軌跡持樂觀態度。我們的團隊在這些非常具有挑戰性的環境下繼續執行的能力，加上精神的結合，使我們堅定地走上為我們的所有者和所有利益相關者創造顯著的長期價值的道路。

With that, we will now take your questions.

現在我們將回答您的問題。

Thanks, everyone. Lara, we're now ready for the question-and-answer session. Please go ahead with the instructions.

感謝大家。勞拉，我們現在準備好進行問答環節了。請按照說明繼續操作。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Mike Linenberg from Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Mike Linenberg。

Two here. Can you just -- how many of your A321neos with the GTF are potentially subject to the issues that, that fleet is now facing. And is there any risk that this is an A220 issue as well? Just your thoughts. I realize it's very early so you may not have much information on it, but whatever you can. And then I have a follow-up.

這裡有兩個。您能不能——有多少架配備 GTF 的 A321neo 可能會遇到該機隊現在面臨的問題。這是否也存在 A220 問題的風險？只是你的想法。我意識到現在還很早，所以你可能沒有太多信息，但無論你能得到什麼。然後我有一個後續行動。

Mike, thanks for the question. So we have had 2 A321neo aircraft on the ground for the last few months due to various engine issues. We have been notified by Pratt & Whitney over the last few weeks that we have a handful of engines that will be impacted and have to come off-wing by mid-September. So we expect the number of aircraft that we have on the ground through the end of the year to approximately double from what we have today. As of note, we did not include any of that impact in our guidance today given that we're still assessing the longer-term impact with Pratt & Whitney. In regards to the A220, we're still working through potential, if any, impact on that GTF engine with Pratt & Whitney.

邁克，謝謝你的提問。由於各種發動機問題，過去幾個月我們有 2 架 A321neo 飛機停在地面上。過去幾週，普惠公司通知我們，我們有一些發動機將受到影響，必須在 9 月中旬之前退役。因此，我們預計到今年年底，我們在地面上擁有的飛機數量將比目前的數量大約增加一倍。值得注意的是，鑑於我們仍在評估普惠公司的長期影響，我們今天的指導中並未包含任何此類影響。關於 A220，我們仍在與普惠公司一起研究對 GTF 發動機的潛在影響（如果有的話）。

Yes, if I could just add. This is Joanna. So we are trying to take whatever self-help measures are available to attain additional engines on the leasing market. But as you know, that supply is pretty constrained at this point.

是的，如果我可以添加的話。這是喬安娜。因此，我們正在嘗試採取一切可行的自助措施，在租賃市場上獲得更多的發動機。但如您所知，目前供應非常有限。

Great. And then just my follow-up is, as you wind down the NEA, obviously the schedules will change. But when I do look in the forward schedule going all the way out next year, it does seem like you are planning to operate, or at least in the schedule, that a good amount of LaGuardia, additional LaGuardia flights. Is that the plan? Or are we going to just see everything wind down and you'll be back to, I don't know, it was about a dozen departures a day from LaGuardia. Just any insight you can give on that, if possible.

偉大的。我的後續行動是，隨著 NEA 的結束，時間表顯然會發生變化。但是，當我查看明年的遠期時間表時，您似乎確實計劃運營，或者至少在時間表中，運營大量拉瓜迪亞機場和額外的拉瓜迪亞航班。是這樣的計劃嗎？或者我們會看到一切都平靜下來，然後你就會回到，我不知道，每天從拉瓜迪亞出發的航班大約有十幾趟。如果可能的話，您可以就此提供任何見解。

Sure. Thanks, Mike, for the question. This is Dave. With regards to the NEA wind down, we've already made some initial adjustments in Boston where we don't have to work through slot issues and constraints there. So we've been able to move a bit more quickly. On New York, we have a plan coming together but have not yet changed it in our selling schedule. Just as a reminder, LaGuardia, we flew before the NEA 16 round trips a day for LaGuardia.

當然。謝謝邁克提出這個問題。這是戴夫。關於 NEA 的結束，我們已經在波士頓進行了一些初步調整，在那裡我們不必解決那裡的航班時刻問題和限制。所以我們能夠更快地行動。在紐約，我們已經制定了一個計劃，但尚未在我們的銷售時間表中進行更改。提醒一下，拉瓜迪亞機場，我們在 NEA 每天 16 趟往返拉瓜迪亞機場之前飛往拉瓜迪亞機場。

That went up to 52 during the NEA, so an incremental 36. As we go into this winter season, you'll see us step down by about a handful of flights in LaGuardia. And then next summer, so beginning in the mid-spring for the summer season, you'll see us flying less than half of those 36 gross roundtrips at LaGuardia. So it will be an orderly wind down. We'll take the first step down late October this year and second step down in late March of '24.

在 NEA 期間，這一數字增加到 52 架，因此增加了 36 架。當我們進入這個冬季時，您會看到我們在拉瓜迪亞機場的航班數量減少了大約幾個。然後明年夏天，從仲春夏季開始，您會看到我們在拉瓜迪亞機場的 36 趟往返航班中的飛行次數還不到一半。所以這將是一個有序的結束。我們將在今年 10 月底採取第一步，並在 2024 年 3 月下旬採取第二步。

Your next question comes from the line of Dan McKenzie from Seaport Global.

您的下一個問題來自 Seaport Global 的 Dan McKenzie。

Going back to the script and the commentary about having the right building blocks in place for better earnings power. You referenced some of the moats that JetBlue has. But one, are they enough to get the airline back to 2019 margins, I guess, first? And then secondly, how quickly can you turn things around? Do -- is it reasonable to assume you can get close in 2024, for example, all else equal?

回到劇本和評論，關於如何建立正確的構建模塊以獲得更好的盈利能力。您提到了捷藍航空擁有的一些護城河。但第一，我想，它們是否足以讓航空公司恢復到 2019 年的利潤率？其次，你能多快扭轉局面？例如，在其他條件相同的情況下，假設您可以在 2024 年接近這一目標是否合理？

Yes, I'll take that. Thanks, Dan. It's Robin. I think when I think about our progress against 2019, on the revenue side, I think that quarter 2 was very important because we were -- other than New York, we were above system margins, 2019 system margins and all of our other focused cities. And so the ramp-up in New York is extremely important to our recovery to 2019 margins.

是的，我會接受的。謝謝，丹。是羅賓。我認為，當我考慮我們 2019 年的進展時，在收入方面，我認為第二季度非常重要，因為除了紐約之外，我們的系統利潤率、2019 年系統利潤率和我們所有其他重點城市都高於。因此，紐約的擴張對於我們恢復 2019 年利潤率極其重要。

And whilst this summer has been a significant setback for reasons that we've described, we were continuing to see recovery in New York. And I believe as we go into next year, we're going to continue to see that recovery. So I think overall, the New York recovery has to deliver. As Dave and Joanna mentioned or one of them mentioned -- Joanna mentioned earlier, I'm sorry, The fact that we have such a strong presence in New York even post-NEA in a slotted environment, we believe, becomes a tailwind at some point.

儘管由於我們所描述的原因，今年夏天遭受了重大挫折，但我們繼續看到紐約的複蘇。我相信，進入明年，我們將繼續看到這種複蘇。所以我認為總體而言，紐約的複蘇必須實現。正如戴夫和喬安娜提到的，或者其中一個人提到的——喬安娜之前提到過，我很抱歉，事實上，我們在紐約擁有如此強大的影響力，甚至在 NEA 之後的一個時隙環境中，我們相信，這在某些方面成為了順風。觀點。

Then on the other revenue side, I think continuing rolling out of the revenue initiatives, very pleased with TrueBlue, very pleased with JetBlue Travel Products. One of the areas that's been constrained with our fleet delays is Mint. I'm pleased to say that the airplanes that we are now taking from Airbus to 321s are Mint-configured airplanes, so we can catch up. That continues to be part of our business that's not performing. I think continuing to develop more geographic diversity, I think, is important.

然後在收入的另一個方面，我認為繼續推出收入計劃，對 TrueBlue 非常滿意，對捷藍旅行產品非常滿意。 Mint 是因我們的機隊延誤而受到限制的地區之一。我很高興地說，我們現在從空客飛往 321 的飛機都是 Mint 配置的飛機，所以我們可以趕上。這仍然是我們業務表現不佳的一部分。我認為繼續發展更多的地理多樣性很重要。

So you're going to continue to see ramp-up to European markets next year, very -- I mean, other airlines have talked about how strong Europe is. We're seeing that, too. We just don't have very much of it. And then on the cost side, I'm really pleased with the progress on the structural cost program. This is a different JetBlue 2 years ago. And the fact that we can take the punches that we're taking both in Q2 and Q3 around very, very significant operational costs and headwinds.

因此，明年你將繼續看到歐洲市場的增長，我的意思是，其他航空公司已經談到了歐洲的強大。我們也看到了這一點。我們只是沒有太多。然後在成本方面，我對結構成本計劃的進展感到非常滿意。這是兩年前不同的捷藍航空。事實上，我們可以承受第二季度和第三季度所承受的非常非常巨大的運營成本和不利因素的打擊。

I mean, when you are flying 1-day schedule with hundreds of flights that are running significantly late due to ATC programs and you have -- a lot of that flying has to be recrewed, we're absorbing all of that. And so I'm very confident that continued execution on the structural cost program is underway.

我的意思是，當你執行為期 1 天的航班計劃時，有數百個航班由於 ATC 計劃而嚴重晚點，而且其中很多航班必須重新安排人員，我們正在吸收所有這些。因此，我非常有信心繼續執行結構性成本計劃。

And of course, the last thing I mentioned, Dan, is the fleet transition. This has been a much longer fleet transition that we would like. But 2024 is game time. We take the most 220s next year, we retire most 190s next year. And by the time we get to end to 2024, we'll really be left, I think, with maybe a dozen 190s that would then sort of start to retire by summer 2025. So we're really now getting into that part of the fleet transition that other airlines have demonstrated is a significant tailwind to unit cost improvement. So overall, I think we've got the right building blocks in place. We do have some challenges to work in the near term. We do have actions to take to mitigate some of the challenges in the near term, and that's what we're doing.

當然，丹，我提到的最後一件事是機隊轉型。我們希望這是一個更長的機隊過渡。但2024年是比賽時間。明年我們會選擇最多 220 歲，明年我們會退休最多 190 歲。我想，到 2024 年底，我們真的會剩下十幾輛 190 輛，到 2025 年夏天它們就會開始退役。所以我們現在真的正在進入這一部分其他航空公司的機隊轉型已證明對單位成本改善具有重大推動作用。總的來說，我認為我們已經準備好了正確的構建模塊。短期內我們的工作確實面臨一些挑戰。我們確實需要採取行動來緩解短期內的一些挑戰，這就是我們正在做的事情。

Yes. Very good. And then, I guess, for the second question here, the full year revenue guide implies a pretty strong reversal of revenue trends in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter. And you guys did touch on that in the script a little bit, but I wonder if you can just elaborate a little bit more. What is it that snaps back in sort of a seasonally weaker quarter?

是的。非常好。然後，我想，對於第二個問題，全年收入指南意味著第四季度與第三季度的收入趨勢出現相當大的逆轉。你們在劇本中確實提到了這一點，但我想知道你們是否可以詳細說明一下。是什麼在季節性疲軟的季度中迅速反彈？

Dan, thanks for the question. This is Dave. It really ties to the timing of these 3 big headwinds we've called out, Two of them improved markedly as we head out of the third quarter into the fourth. So first, with ATC. We expect that entire impact to be limited to the third quarter and we're expecting no ATC impact in the fourth quarter. So that's a full 3-plus points of revenue in the third quarter that dissipates before the fourth. And then secondly, the geographic shift is much more pronounced in the summer, especially as Europe is in their peak season. As we head into the winter travel, we expect 1 point or more of improvement as we go from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of that geographic demand shift.

丹，謝謝你的提問。這是戴夫。這確實與我們指出的這三個大逆風的時機有關，當我們從第三節進入第四節時，其中兩個明顯改善。首先是 ATC。我們預計整個影響將僅限於第三季度，並且我們預計第四季度不會對 ATC 產生影響。因此，第三季度的收入增加了整整 3 個百分點，但在第四季度之前就消失了。其次，地理變化在夏季更為明顯，尤其是在歐洲正處於旺季時。當我們進入冬季旅行時，我們預計隨著地理需求轉變從第三季度到第四季度，會有 1 個百分點或更多的改善。

The one piece that does get worse is the NEA headwind will grow from about 1 point -- a bit more than 1 point, but roughly 1 point in the third quarter to 2 points in the fourth quarter. And that's just getting the full impact of sort of the ramp-up since codeshare sales turned off in late July. We did get a partial quarter in Q3. And then that will begin to improve with the capacity to redeploy as we go through the winter and into 2024.

確實變得更糟的是，NEA 的逆風將從第三節的大約 1 分——略多於 1 分，但大約為 1 分——增加到第四節的 2 分。這只是自 7 月底代碼共享銷售停止以來的某種增長的全面影響。我們確實在第三季度獲得了部分季度的收益。然後，隨著我們度過冬季並進入 2024 年，這種情況將隨著重新部署的能力而開始改善。

Your next question comes from the line of Savi Syth Raymond James.

您的下一個問題來自 Savi Syth Raymond James。

Just on -- it looks like you're only expecting about 30 of the kind of 60 contractual kind of aircraft next year and GTF issues seem to be continuing. I was just kind of curious what your early thoughts on 2024 capacity are, and if you'd still lean a little bit more international or how you're thinking about it?

就這樣——看起來您只期望明年獲得 60 架合同飛機中的約 30 架，而 GTF 問題似乎仍在繼續。我只是有點好奇您對 2024 年產能的早期想法是什麼，以及您是否仍然傾向於國際化，或者您是如何考慮的？

Thanks, Savi, for the question. It's still really early given the fluidity of Airbus and the Pratt & Whitney conversations and evolutions. So contractually, we technically had over 40 deliveries expected in 2024. Our current planning assumptions are using 30 deliveries, and that does not include any impact to the recent GTF issue.

謝謝薩維提出的問題。考慮到空中客車公司和普惠公司的對話和演變的流動性，現在還為時過早。因此，根據合同，技術上我們預計 2024 年將交付 40 多次。我們當前的計劃假設是 30 次交付，這不包括對最近的 GTF 問題的任何影響。

So we are still working with Airbus and Pratt & Whitney identifying 2024 impact. As Robin highlighted in one of his answers, a good portion of those deliveries are 220s but also Mint-configured aircraft to help support our European aspiration. So more to come on 2024 capacity. There's just a lot of puts and takes right now. Obviously, we strive to the mid- to high single-digit and we'll continue to work with our partners to refine what we think that growth rate will be.

因此，我們仍在與空中客車公司和普惠公司合作，確定 2024 年的影響。正如 Robin 在他的一次回答中強調的那樣，這些交付的飛機中很大一部分是 220 型，但也有 Mint 配置的飛機，以幫助支持我們的歐洲願望。 2024 年產能還會有更多。現在有很多的投入和獲取。顯然，我們努力實現中高個位數增長，我們將繼續與合作夥伴合作，完善我們認為的增長率。

No, that's helpful. And just if I might, on the New York region commentary, is that more of a kind of -- is that more short-haul business markets that are lagging? Or I was just kind of curious if there was any kind of smoking gun or whatever that's driving the slower recovery in New York margins versus the rest of the system. I was just curious how much your business demand has recovered and if that's driving it.

不，這很有幫助。就紐約地區的評論而言，我想說的是，這更像是一種——更多的短途商業市場正在落後嗎？或者我只是有點好奇是否有任何確鑿證據或其他什麼因素導致紐約利潤率相對於系統的其他部分複蘇緩慢。我只是好奇你們的業務需求恢復了多少，以及這是否是其推動因素。

Yes, Savi. This is Dave. Great question. And you're spot on. We're seeing the largest impact in terms of revenue recovery in 2 areas. One is the business markets, which are recovering much more slowly than leisure and second is short haul. So a short-haul business market is sort of the most impacted type of market. And obviously, we fly some of those and then the industry fly some of those and has been redeploying some capacity out of those and into other leisure markets that adds competitive capacity to us. So that's sort of the general type of market that's most at risk. And whether it's something we fly or a competitor is redeploying capacity out of and into our markets, we feel the impact both ways.

是的，薩維。這是戴夫。很好的問題。你說得對。我們在兩個領域的收入恢復方面看到了最大的影響。一是商務市場，其複蘇速度比休閒市場慢得多，二是短途市場。因此，短途商務市場是受影響最大的市場類型。顯然，我們飛了其中一些，然後行業飛了其中一些，並已將其中的一些產能重新部署到其他休閒市場，從而增加了我們的競爭力。因此，這是風險最大的一般市場類型。無論是我們駕駛的飛機還是競爭對手將運力重新部署進出我們的市場，我們都會感受到雙向的影響。

Your next question comes from the line of Jamie Baker from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的傑米·貝克（Jamie Baker）。

So when you think about more aggressively redeploying capacity to expected pockets of future demand, your words, I mean, that's pretty much what Southwest is also planning to try. And I suspect we may hear something similar from Frontier and Spirit. I realize your networks aren't carbon copies of one another, but if everyone is trying to optimize their network and shifting capacity to peak days, I mean, does that factor into your expected returns? I'm not saying you shouldn't try to optimize. I'm just thinking if everybody tries the same thing, well, then that really doesn't drive much optimization.

因此，當您考慮更積極地重新部署產能以滿足未來需求的預期時，我的意思是，您的話，西南航空也計劃嘗試這樣做。我懷疑我們可能會從 Frontier 和 Spirit 中聽到類似的內容。我意識到你們的網絡並不是彼此的複製品，但如果每個人都在嘗試優化他們的網絡並將容量轉移到高峰日，我的意思是，這會影響您的預期回報嗎？我並不是說你不應該嘗試優化。我只是在想，如果每個人都嘗試同樣的事情，那麼這確實不會帶來太多的優化。

No, it's a great question, Jamie. This is Dave. A couple of things. One, we think about not only what's underperforming and what is performing better today, but then we think a lot about what our natural sort of model advantages are -- business model advantages are versus these other carriers. So for example, we know JetBlue does well, especially on longer-haul flying because the onboard product is excellent and certainly far superior to the ULCC. So as we redeploy, we not only think about current capacity but competitive capacity and how structurally advanced we are over the long term.

不，這是一個很好的問題，傑米。這是戴夫。有幾件事。第一，我們不僅考慮今天表現不佳和表現更好的內容，而且還深入思考我們的自然模式優勢是什麼——與其他運營商相比的商業模式優勢。例如，我們知道捷藍航空表現出色，尤其是在長途飛行方面，因為機上產品非常出色，而且肯定遠遠優於 ULCC。因此，當我們重新部署時，我們不僅考慮當前能力，還考慮競爭能力以及我們在長期結構上的先進程度。

And I think, Jamie, to give you an example, we touched on Mint a little bit. Mint continues to perform very well, and it's both the front of the airplane and the back of the airplane. And what we haven't been able to really do in the last year or 2 is add any Mint capacity because we -- those airplanes have really not been coming at us in any volume, and the ones we've had have been flying to Europe.

我想，傑米，給你舉個例子，我們稍微提到了 Mint。 Mint繼續表現得非常好，無論是飛機的前部還是飛機的後部。在過去的一兩年裡，我們未能真正做到的是增加任何造幣廠的容量，因為我們——那些飛機實際上並沒有以任何數量飛向我們，而我們已經飛往的飛機歐洲。

And so I think we expect next summer to be a very strong seasonal -- another strong European summer. We think transcon will continue to perform sort of with both the Mint franchise and the products at the back of the airplane. And again, I think that New York slots is going to have to look different, but New York is coming back and will continue to come back.

因此，我認為我們預計明年夏天將是一個非常強勁的季節——另一個強勁的歐洲夏季。我們認為 transcon 將繼續在 Mint 特許經營權和飛機後部產品方面發揮作用。再說一次，我認為紐約的老虎機看起來會有所不同，但紐約正在回歸，並將繼續回歸。

And those are markets, of course, because they're slot-constrained, are going to be tough to get into. But also, we don't know what the FAA is going to have to do next year on New York slots. I mean, as you know, there was a 10% slot waiver this year. If you want [Robin's] personal opinion, that was not enough. from what we've seen. And so how should we think about New York capacity going forward in terms of total industry capacity as well. So I feel really good that given the number of airplanes that we have, we have a lot of good options. But I take your point, everyone's going to be looking for that pot of gold. But we're going to focus on our plan on improving our network returns.

當然，這些市場由於時段有限，因此很難進入。但我們也不知道美國聯邦航空局明年在紐約的航班時刻要做什麼。我的意思是，如您所知，今年有 10% 的時段豁免。如果您想了解[羅賓]的個人意見，那還不夠。從我們所看到的來看。因此，我們應該如何從行業總產能的角度考慮紐約未來的產能。所以我感覺非常好，考慮到我們擁有的飛機數量，我們有很多不錯的選擇。但我同意你的觀點，每個人都會尋找那一桶金。但我們將專注於提高網絡回報的計劃。

That's helpful. And obviously, part of JetBlue's challenge is market concentration, the exposure in New York, you talked about this in your prepared remarks, Robin. And the merger will obviously help with that. But just for argument's sake, if the merger doesn't close for some reason, have you started to develop a plan B, which I assume would include trying to find an additional hub or focus city somewhere else, presumably not in the Northeast?

這很有幫助。顯然，捷藍航空面臨的部分挑戰是市場集中度，即在紐約的曝光度，羅賓，你在準備好的講話中談到了這一點。合併顯然會對此有所幫助。但出於爭論的目的，如果合併由於某種原因沒有完成，你們是否已經開始製定 B 計劃，我認為該計劃將包括嘗試在其他地方（可能不在東北部）尋找額外的樞紐或焦點城市？

Yes, Jamie. Look, how I'd add to that is we're very focused on getting the Spirit deal done. It is our #1 priority. It's going to turbocharge organic growth. Having said that, the network team is always looking at opportunities that might be out there. And they've done that in the past, they'll continue to do that.

是的，傑米。聽著，我要補充的是，我們非常專注於完成精神交易。這是我們的第一要務。它將推動有機增長。話雖如此，網絡團隊始終在尋找可能存在的機會。他們過去已經這樣做了，他們將繼續這樣做。

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Didora from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯·迪多拉。

So just, I guess, historically, you've targeted sort of that mid- to high single-digit type of capacity growth. When we think about the continued unwind of the NEA, I think you said it goes through sort of next summer. Does it change your growth expectations for 2024 at all? And just as a follow-up to that question, based on your answer to that question, I guess, what are the puts and takes on CASM ex next year, particularly the additional pilot flow through? Any color there would be helpful.

所以，我想，從歷史上看，你們的目標是中高個位數的產能增長。當我們考慮國家能源局的持續放鬆時，我想你說過它會在明年夏天結束。這是否會改變您對 2024 年的增長預期？作為該問題的後續行動，根據您對該問題的回答，我想，明年 CASM ex 的看跌期權和期權是什麼，特別是額外的試點流程？任何顏色都會有幫助。

Sure. Thanks, Andrew. This is Dave. I'll start it off and then kick it over to Ursula. In terms of the NEA wind down, given the strength we're seeing in our non-New York geography, as mentioned in Q2, our non-New York flying significantly outperformed 2019 in terms of profit margin. We feel good about our redeploy options in sort of the larger ability to profitably deploy the fleet. So from that perspective, no impact on 2024 capacity. Obviously, as Ursula mentioned, delivery schedule, engines, ATC, those things may have an impact. But from a pure customer demand perspective, we feel good. And then over to you, Ursula.

當然。謝謝，安德魯。這是戴夫。我會開始它，然後把它交給烏蘇拉。就 NEA 縮減而言，鑑於我們在非紐約地區看到的強勁勢頭（如第二季度所述），我們的非紐約航班在利潤率方面明顯優於 2019 年。我們對我們的重新部署選項感到滿意，因為它能夠增強部署機隊的盈利能力。所以從這個角度來看，對2024年的產能沒有影響。顯然，正如烏蘇拉提到的，交付時間表、發動機、ATC，這些東西可能會產生影響。但從純粹的客戶需求角度來看，我們感覺很好。然後輪到你了，烏蘇拉。

On the CASM ex side, so as we ramp down the NEA, you will start to see some CASM relief in 2024, depending on how quickly and at what rate we ramp down. We're going to, as Dave mentioned, redeploy that capacity. And obviously, the average rent and landing fee across the country is typically lower outside of New York. So you will see some benefit there. In regards to the pilots, so we actually have a step up in pilot rates here in the third quarter and the fourth quarter of 2023. So in the third quarter, it's a 3-point impact to CASM ex and a 4-point in the fourth quarter. Those obviously will impact 1H of 2024, and then we'll lap it in the back half of next year.

在 CASM 方面，當我們減少 NEA 時，您將在 2024 年開始看到 CASM 有所緩解，具體取決於我們減少的速度和速度。正如戴夫提到的，我們將重新部署該能力。顯然，全國范圍內的平均租金和著陸費通常低於紐約以外的地區。所以你會在那裡看到一些好處。就試點而言，我們實際上在 2023 年第三季度和第四季度提高了試點率。因此，在第三季度，對 CASM ex 產生 3 點影響，對 2023 年第四季度產生 4 點影響。第四季度。這些顯然將影響 2024 年上半年，然後我們將在明年下半年完成它。

Your next question comes from the line of Catherine O'Brien from Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的凱瑟琳·奧布萊恩。

Maybe just a bit of a follow-up to Jamie's question. So on the leisure routes you're reallocating to, are these routes JetBlue historically served and had to pull down to feed the NEA? If historical to JetBlue, how has the competitive landscape changed since you last served them? Or maybe it hasn't. And then -- or are there some new markets? I'm just trying to get a sense of how we can expect these routes to ramp versus system performance.

也許只是傑米問題的一個後續。那麼，在您重新分配的休閒航線上，這些航線是否曾經由捷藍航空提供服務，並且不得不停運來為 NEA 提供服務？如果捷藍航空歷史悠久，那麼自從您上次為捷藍航空服務以來，競爭格局發生了怎樣的變化？或者也許還沒有。然後——或者有一些新的市場嗎？我只是想了解一下我們如何期望這些路由相對於系統性能的提升。

Yes, thanks. This is Joanna. So it's a combination of routes we previously served but also new routes, exploring some of the seasonal markets, really refining our day of week flying as well to target specific demand pockets that may be there for vacation and high (inaudible) peak periods. So it's a combination of both.

對了謝謝。這是喬安娜。因此，它結合了我們以前提供的航線和新航線，探索一些季節性市場，真正完善了我們一周中的航班，並針對假期和高（聽不清）高峰期可能出現的特定需求。所以它是兩者的結合。

Okay. Got it. And...

好的。知道了。和...

Yes, I think, what I'd say is just historically, leisure markets have ramped up more quickly. And we know that there is a -- in many months a year, there is a demand that can't be satisfied. So I think the question is going to be in terms of the off-peak capacity. And in a world where corporate travel is 20% down, how do airlines sort of meet that off-peak need? And I think it's far broader the network. I think it's resourcing strategy, I think it's maintenance planning. I think there's a whole number of things that in a world where business travel may not be coming back, we're going to have to work through and think through. And just rest assured, we have a lot of actions and focus on that area. So it's far broader than just network in terms of how we manage these off-peak periods.

是的，我認為，我想說的是，從歷史上看，休閒市場的增長速度更快。我們知道，一年中有好幾個月，存在無法滿足的需求。所以我認為問題在於非高峰時段的容量。在商務旅行下降 20% 的情況下，航空公司如何滿足非高峰需求？我認為這個網絡要廣泛得多。我認為這是資源策略，我認為這是維護計劃。我認為，在一個商務旅行可能不會回歸的世界裡，有很多事情我們必須解決和思考。請放心，我們有很多行動並專注於該領域。因此，就我們如何管理這些非高峰時段而言，它的範圍遠遠超出了網絡。

Got it. Super interesting. And maybe just -- the last FAA outlook on air traffic controller headcount, I saw it didn't show a big improvement anytime soon. Just given your geography and a more constrained operational environment and the investments you've had to make to deal with that, should we expect the headwind you're pointing to in the slides, I think the entirety of your 2.5% to 5.5% year-over-year growth for the full year driven by that. Is that just part of the base now and like into next year and going forward? Or we got to wait until there's more air traffic controllers? Or do you see a path to any relief into next year?

知道了。超級有趣。也許只是 - 美國聯邦航空局對空中交通管制員人數的最新展望，我發現它並沒有很快顯示出重大改善。考慮到您的地理位置和更加受限的運營環境以及您必須為此進行的投資，我們是否應該預期您在幻燈片中指出的逆風，我認為您全年 2.5% 至 5.5% 的增長率-由此推動的全年同比增長。這只是現在和明年以及未來的基礎的一部分嗎？或者我們必須等到有更多的空中交通管制員？或者你認為明年會有緩解的途徑嗎？

Yes. Let me -- I just want to make sure I'm answering the right question if you're talking about capacity or CASM in terms of what's baked into the...

是的。讓我——如果你談論的是容量或 CASM，我只是想確保我回答了正確的問題。

CASM ex.

CASM 前。

CASM ex, yes. You should expect that we will continue to carry an elevated number of resources as we go into the summer. You should think of air traffic control sort of through the lens of high-volume and convective weather. So summertime is when we see the most challenging time. That abates in the fall and it abates in the winter. So in terms of the longer-term trajectory, it will improve. It just won't improve in the next couple of years.

CASM 前任，是的。您應該預料到，隨著夏季的到來，我們將繼續攜帶更多的資源。您應該從高流量和對流天氣的角度來考慮空中交通管制。因此，夏季是我們最具挑戰性的時期。這種情況在秋天減弱，在冬天減弱。因此，就長期軌跡而言，它會有所改善。未來幾年這種情況不會改善。

There are a few things that we're focused on with the FAA. They've been a very collaborative transparent partner this summer in terms of collaborating with us and letting us know when there are staffing challenges going into events. But what that has translated to is longer events and more restrictive events. And that has impacted obviously, as we mentioned in the prepared remarks, July completion factor by 4 points.

我們與美國聯邦航空管理局 (FAA) 重點關註一些事情。今年夏天，他們在與我們合作方面一直是一個非常合作透明的合作夥伴，並在活動中遇到人員配備挑戰時讓我們知道。但這意味著活動時間更長、限制性更強。正如我們在準備好的發言中提到的，這顯然對 7 月份的完成率產生了 4 個百分點的影響。

As you think about the other things that we can do to help mitigate some of the near-term challenges given our exposure, additional slot relief next summer is going to be something that we're working on with the FAA. Obviously, the sooner the better on that slot relief because it will enable us to pull costs out. The way the slot relief came in this year was too close in and we'd already hired pilots and in-flight and we just kind of reabsorbed those in as additional operational protections.

當你考慮我們可以做的其他事情來幫助緩解我們面臨的一些近期挑戰時，明年夏天我們將與美國聯邦航空局合作，以減少額外的航班時刻。顯然，時間減免越早越好，因為這將使我們能夠降低成本。今年的時隙救濟措施太接近了，我們已經僱傭了飛行員並在飛行中，我們只是重新吸收了這些作為額外的運營保護。

But if we can address the slot relief earlier, that will enable us to pull capacity more efficiently. And then we're going to have a smaller footprint in LaGuardia next summer as we think about stepping down the NEA. And so that should provide some relief as well. And then hopefully, with Spirit, that will help us diversify the network longer term out of the Northeast in New York more quickly.

但如果我們能夠更早地解決航班時刻釋放問題，這將使我們能夠更有效地拉動產能。明年夏天，當我們考慮退出國家能源局時，我們在拉瓜迪亞的足跡將會縮小。所以這也應該能帶來一些緩解。希望通過 Spirit 的合作，我們能夠更快地實現紐約東北部網絡的長期多元化。

Your next question comes from the line of Shaleen Becker from TD Cowen.

您的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Shaleen Becker。

It's Helane. Just a question on the weather-related issues. They've been getting worse every summer for the past decade. And I heard your answer to Catherine's question about ATC, and I appreciate that. But as you think about whether in 3 of your biggest markets, Boston, New York and Fort Lauderdale, how should we -- how should you think about adjusting capacity for summer months to not get into a situation where you're continually having 3 days in a row of irregular operations.

是赫蘭。只是關於天氣相關問題的問題。在過去的十年裡，每年夏天情況都變得更糟。我聽到了您對凱瑟琳有關 ATC 問題的回答，對此我表示讚賞。但是，當您考慮在波士頓、紐約和勞德代爾堡這三個最大的市場時，我們應該如何——您應該如何考慮調整夏季月份的運力，以免陷入連續 3 天的情況在一系列不規範的操作中。

And then the other question I have, unrelated a little bit. I'm just kind of trying to figure out when you figured out that Europe was going to be the strong place this summer because as part of the Northeast Alliance, you should have seen where your passengers -- the passengers you were putting on American flights were going. So kind of trying to rationalize this to Europe being so strong, yes, but shouldn't you have seen it?

然後是我的另一個問題，有點無關。我只是想弄清楚你是什麼時候發現歐洲將成為今年夏天的強國的，因為作為東北聯盟的一部分，你應該知道你的乘客——你安排在美國航班上的乘客在哪裡本來打算。是的，試圖將歐洲如此強大的現象合理化，但你不應該看到這一點嗎？

Helane, I'll grab those and then Robin might have some additional commentary on the weather as he's been spending quite a bit of time studying it on the weekends. So in terms of capacity reductions in the Northeast to address potentially more challenging weather environment, as a reminder, new York is slotted. And so reducing capacity without FAA relief is going to be a challenge for us. And as we've mentioned, New York was an incredible margin producer for JetBlue pre-COVID. And so New York continues to be a very strategically important part of our network. And even in the face of weather, we need to operate within that environment.

Helane，我會抓住這些，然後羅賓可能會對天氣有一些額外的評論，因為他週末花了很多時間研究天氣。因此，就減少東北地區的產能以應對潛在更具挑戰性的天氣環境而言，提醒一下，紐約已被列入名單。因此，在沒有美國聯邦航空局救濟的情況下減少運力對我們來說將是一個挑戰。正如我們所提到的，在新冠疫情爆發之前，紐約是捷藍航空令人難以置信的利潤來源。因此，紐約仍然是我們網絡中具有非常重要戰略意義的部分。即使面對惡劣的天氣，我們也需要在這種環境下運作。

We know weather. It has been worse this summer. But in terms of the magnitude of the challenges, and this really requires the FAA to continue to pursue its plan to hire more controllers and also address the inexperience issue. During COVID, as we know, they lost a number of experienced controllers. And so that plays into events on the weekends when weather typically hits. And the FAA has done a number of things over the last few weeks to try to address that experience gap issue so that we hopefully can avoid some of these more restrictive programs when you have weather that maybe slightly worse than years prior, but not the magnitude that we're seeing this summer in terms of the restrictive ATC programs.

我們了解天氣。今年夏天情況更糟。但就挑戰的嚴重程度而言，這確實需要美國聯邦航空局繼續推行其僱用更多管制員的計劃，並解決缺乏經驗的問題。據我們所知，在新冠疫情期間，他們失去了許多經驗豐富的管制員。因此，這會影響週末天氣通常會發生的事件。在過去的幾周里，美國聯邦航空局做了很多事情來嘗試解決經驗差距問題，這樣當天氣可能比幾年前稍微糟糕一些，但程度不那麼嚴重時，我們希望能夠避免一些更具限制性的計劃。今年夏天我們看到了限制性的空中交通管制計劃。

And then with regard to Europe, as you think about last summer and our revenue performance last summer, demand was incredibly strong in our domestic and our Caribbean franchise. Our belief was that some of that would come out and we address that and how we planned the year, but that some of it would actually spill over into this summer. If you remember, April, we had a very strong Easter break. We had a very strong spring break.

然後就歐洲而言，當你想到去年夏天和我們去年夏天的收入表現時，我們的國內和加勒比特許經營權的需求非常強勁。我們相信，其中一些問題將會出現，我們會解決這個問題以及我們今年的計劃，但其中一些實際上會蔓延到今年夏天。如果你還記得的話，四月，我們度過了一個非常充實的複活節假期。我們度過了一個非常充實的春假。

And we believe this summer, we would see some of the extra COVID pent-up demand play out for those customers who were limited in being able to fly last year because fares were higher and capacity was more limited. Obviously, that hasn't played out quite as we expected. But hindsight is [20-20]. And while they're all in, in Europe and Asia this summer, we expect that to cycle through as well just as that extra COVID pent-up demand we saw last summer cycles to a different geography this summer. And Robin, I don't know if you want to answer the...

我們相信，今年夏天，我們會看到一些因新冠疫情而被壓抑的額外需求出現在那些去年因票價較高且運力有限而無法飛行的乘客身上。顯然，這並沒有像我們預期的那樣發生。但事後看來是[20-20]。雖然今年夏天它們都在歐洲和亞洲，但我們預計這種情況會像去年夏天被壓抑的新冠需求在今年夏天循環到不同的地區一樣循環。羅賓，我不知道你是否願意回答這個問題……

Yes. Helane, the other point I would just add on the demand, what we've seen is -- I mean, I'll give you some examples. I mean, markets like New York, Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard and markets like that have always been extremely strong performers for us in the summer. People look at the ATC environment, they look at the weather and they drive and get on the ferry.

是的。 Helane，我想補充的另一點是需求，我們所看到的是——我的意思是，我會給你一些例子。我的意思是，像紐約、楠塔基特島、瑪莎葡萄園島這樣的市場在夏季對我們來說一直表現非常強勁。人們查看 ATC 環境，查看天氣，開車並登上渡輪。

And so I think these things are, also to a certain degree, co-mingle. So people may take less trips or they want to do one trip and it's a longer trip. I think Joanna's point, I mean, the demand -- I mean, there's a lot of people traveling. Our load factor today is well into the 90s. So it's not that people aren't traveling. It's just -- on the domestic system, as you know, the fares this summer have come in lower than I think everyone in the industry had expected.

所以我認為這些東西在某種程度上也是混合在一起的。因此，人們可能會減少旅行次數，或者他們想做一次旅行，但這是一次更長的旅行。我認為喬安娜的觀點，我的意思是，需求——我的意思是，有很多人旅行。今天我們的載客率已經達到了 90 多歲。所以這並不是說人們不旅行。正如你所知，在國內系統上，今年夏天的票價低於我認為業內每個人的預期。

I mean, on the weather that you asked, I mean, we have a team of metrologists. I think we are really good at this, given how important it is to JetBlue being so focused in the Northeast. We spend time -- and actually, we work with a company called [Tomorrow IO], which was one of the original JetBlue Ventures investments that we made as well, and it's been amazing to see how that business has evolved over 10 years.

我的意思是，關於你問的天氣，我的意思是，我們有一個計量學家團隊。我認為我們在這方面確實很擅長，因為捷藍航空如此專注於東北地區是多麼重要。我們花了時間——實際上，我們與一家名為 [Tomorrow IO] 的公司合作，這也是我們最初進行的 JetBlue Ventures 投資之一，看到該業務在 10 年來的發展令人驚嘆。

But we look at varying measures in terms of the synoptic analysis, the participation, the service analysis, the pressure. And there is no doubt that the conditions this year have set us up, at least for July, for a more challenging environment. Having said that, it still compares, in terms of severe weather, 2016 was worse. So it's been worse than recent years.

但我們從概要分析、參與、服務分析、壓力等方面考慮了不同的衡量標準。毫無疑問，今年的條件使我們（至少在 7 月份）面臨更具挑戰性的環境。話雖如此，但就惡劣天氣而言，2016年還是比較糟糕的。所以情況比最近幾年更糟糕。

However, as Joanna said, it's not just the weather. We are seeing -- when weather comes in, we're seeing programs earlier, we're seeing them lasting for longer. If you look at LaGuardia last Friday night, for anyone who was flying, I think we had -- there were 50 industry airplanes out there. And it gets very challenging to recover from those events and then it bleeds into the next day.

然而，正如喬安娜所說，這不僅僅是天氣的問題。我們看到，當天氣到來時，我們會更早地看到節目，我們會看到它們持續的時間更長。如果你看看上週五晚上的拉瓜迪亞機場，對於任何乘坐飛機的人來說，我想我們都有——那裡有 50 架工業飛機。從這些事件中恢復過來非常具有挑戰性，然後這種情況會持續到第二天。

So I think we made a good call on the amount of disruption that we would see this summer. What we underestimated is the ATC impact to these weather delays. And again, Joanna stressed the important point, the FAA, they accept the challenge they've got. They've been extremely collaborative. No one is interested in finger-pointing. People just want a system that works. That's what we want, too.

因此，我認為我們對今年夏天可能出現的干擾程度做出了很好的預測。我們低估了 ATC 對這些天氣延誤的影響。喬安娜再次強調了重要的一點，聯邦航空局，他們接受了他們所面臨的挑戰。他們一直非常合作。沒有人對相互指責感興趣。人們只想要一個有效的系統。這也是我們想要的。

And I'm confident that as we get to 2024, whatever, how will we do it, whether it's more controllers, whether it's different work resources, whether it's a slot waivers again, that we have to get, as an industry, an FAA to a better operating solution for the flying public. And at JetBlue, we will be vocal in making sure that, that happens.

我相信，到 2024 年，無論如何，我們將如何做到這一點，是否需要更多的管制員，是否需要不同的工作資源，是否再次豁免航班時刻，作為一個行業，我們必須獲得 FAA為飛行公眾提供更好的運營解決方案。在捷藍航空，我們將大聲疾呼，確保實現這一目標。

That's really helpful. Hopefully, we get a budget. And I think it was actually 61 planes at the peak last Friday night at LaGuardia.

這真的很有幫助。希望我們能得到預算。我認為上週五晚上在拉瓜迪亞機場高峰期實際上有 61 架飛機。

Your next question comes from the line of Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

Just taking a step back, can you remind us how much of your revenue and your capacity touched the NEA at peak? And is there any potential fleet implication here? In other words, could some of this capacity get parked? Or will it all be transitioned to markets away from New York and Boston?

退一步講，您能否提醒我們，您的收入和產能在高峰期觸動了 NEA 多少？這裡是否有任何潛在的艦隊影響？換句話說，這些容量中的一部分可以被停放嗎？還是會全部轉移到紐約和波士頓以外的市場？

Duane, this is Dave. I'll take that. As noted, we are very exposed to the Northeast and concentrated there. Our New York and Boston is 75% to 80% of our capacity, just to sort of put it in terms of order of magnitude. So it's the vast majority of what we do. As mentioned, though, we see certainly opportunity for redeploy. We've already started to execute that, and we'll be continuing to execute that over the coming periods. But with the non-New York part of our network driving above 2019 margins in the second quarter, we feel confident that we've got a number of good options to redeploy this capacity into. So don't expect it to impact the overall level of capacity, but certainly the geographic deployment of where it (inaudible).

杜安，這是戴夫。我會接受的。如前所述，我們非常容易接觸東北地區並集中在那裡。我們的紐約和波士頓佔了我們容量的 75% 到 80%，只是按照數量級來表示。所以這是我們所做的絕大多數事情。不過，正如前面提到的，我們確實看到了重新部署的機會。我們已經開始執行該計劃，並將在未來一段時間內繼續執行該計劃。但隨著我們網絡的非紐約部分在第二季度的利潤率超過 2019 年，我們相信我們有許多不錯的選擇來重新部署這些容量。因此，不要指望它會影響總體容量水平，但肯定會影響它的地理部署（聽不清）。

I guess not the 75% to 80% that needs to be redeployed, but what percentage touched the NEA specifically, if you had there. And then just for my follow-up, can you remind us what JetBlue committed to with respect to labor to be able to implement the NEA? Was there a rate bump specifically tied to that?

我猜想不是需要重新部署 75% 到 80%，而是具體涉及 NEA 的百分比（如果有的話）。接下來，您能否提醒我們，為了能夠實施 NEA，捷藍航空在勞工方面做出了哪些承諾？是否有專門與此相關的利率上漲？

Yes. So there was. I would say that was before the last extension that we did. So to a certain extent, that's sort of in the past, Duane, because that's kind of just kind of where we started from in terms of where we got to. And that was for the pilot group.

是的。所以有。我想說那是在我們最後一次延期之前。所以在某種程度上，這已經是過去式了，杜安，因為這就是我們的起點，也是我們所達到的目標。那是針對試點組的。

And the other thing I just wanted to add to what Dave said is that a lot of the LaGuardia flying that we talked about getting redeployed is very -- is short-stage flying. So what you're going to probably see is that get deployed to longer stage markets, 190s are disappearing, A220s arriving.

我想補充戴夫所說的另一件事是，我們談論的重新部署的許多拉瓜迪亞航班都是短程飛行。因此，您可能會看到，隨著部署到較長階段的市場，190 正在消失，A220 即將到來。

So you're going to see a [stage and gauge] bump on that. So it might be a larger number of flights being redeployed to a fewer number of flights in the stage and those flights are going to go up. So it's not -- and from an ASM perspective, it won't be that material. It will be from a sort of a New York flight count and exposure to flight -- per flight costs in New York and the ATC issues that are obviously per flight in New York.

所以你會看到上面有一個[階段和儀表]凸起。因此，可能會有更多的航班被重新部署到該階段更少的航班，而這些航班將會增加。所以它不是——從 ASM 的角度來看，它不會是那種材料。這將來自紐約的航班計數和航班風險——紐約每個航班的成本以及顯然是紐約每個航班的空中交通管制問題。

Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Trent from Citi.

您的下一個問題來自花旗集團的史蒂芬·特倫特（Stephen Trent）。

Most of them have been answered, but I was curious if you wouldn't mind providing any color on what sort of competitive dynamics you're seeing southbound into the Caribbean and LatAm, for example. We hear, for instance, a carrier called Arajet that recently started. And I'm wondering to what extent you guys are bumping shoulders with them.

大多數問題都已得到解答，但我很好奇您是否介意提供有關您所看到的南行進入加勒比海和拉丁美洲的競爭動態的任何信息。例如，我們聽說最近成立了一家名為 Arajet 的航空公司。我想知道你們在多大程度上與他們並肩。

Yes, I'll take that. I think in terms of industry capacity, there's most certainly industry -- increased industry capacity into Latin and Caribbean but it's also a market that tends to be quite resilient. And as you think about last summer and just the sheer volume of pent-up demand to go to some of these VFR markets, we're most certainly seeing that translate into the summer.

是的，我會接受的。我認為就行業產能而言，拉丁美洲和加勒比地區的行業產能肯定有所增加，但它也是一個往往具有相當彈性的市場。當你想到去年夏天以及某些 VFR 市場被壓抑的需求量時，我們肯定會看到這種情況會轉化為夏天。

That's where our capacity has largely been. We're around flat capacity for domestic but up in the Latin leisure markets. In terms of competitive new entrants and whatnot, I think JetBlue has a strong franchise down there. We do Latin and VFR traffic very well. We do leisure very well. It's sort of our bread and butter and one that we will continue to grow and redouble our efforts with that segment.

這就是我們的能力的主要所在。我們國內的運力基本持平，但拉丁休閒市場的運力有所上升。就競爭性新進入者等而言，我認為捷藍航空擁有強大的特許經營權。我們在拉丁語和 VFR 流量方面做得很好。我們休閒做得很好。這是我們的麵包和黃油，我們將繼續發展這一領域並加倍努力。

Super. Appreciate that. And actually, just one quick follow-up to Duane's (inaudible) question. When you think about the shift from E190s to A220s, I believe, definitely going with a bit of a bigger plane. But should we also assume that you'll also be maybe getting rid of some of those smaller destinations or have those routes that were adequate for E190s 20 years ago, have they now kind of spooled up to accommodate the larger gauge flying?

極好的。感謝。實際上，這只是杜安（聽不清）問題的一個快速跟進。當你想到從 E190 到 A220 的轉變時，我相信肯定會選擇更大的飛機。但我們是否還應該假設您可能會放棄一些較小的目的地，或者擁有 20 年前足以滿足 E190 飛行的航線，它們現在是否可以適應更大軌距的飛行？

Yes, thanks. Stephen, it's a great question. All the cities we serve today with the E190 can be served at the 220 from an operational perspective. And from a demand perspective, we believe the same. So I would not expect any market exits as we go through the transition.

對了謝謝。斯蒂芬，這是一個很好的問題。從運營角度來看，我們今天使用 E190 服務的所有城市都可以使用 220 提供服務。從需求角度來看，我們也相信這一點。因此，我預計在過渡過程中不會有任何市場退出。

And just to add, I think in one sense here, the reduction in some of the short-haul business line, which I think everyone recognizes, and certainly, we will do from the trips that we used to do and don't do now, that are ones most under pressure. To a certain extent, that has coincided with the replacement of the 190s with the 220s. And the 220s, of course, are capable to a lot more mission in terms of length than the 190. So I think to a certain extent, that as we -- whether this was the NEA or not, we may be looking to redeploy from business markets into other markets. The 220 actually gives us much more flexibility to do that.

只是補充一下，我認為從某種意義上來說，一些短途業務線路的減少，我想每個人都認識到這一點，當然，我們會從我們過去做過和現在不做的旅行中做一些事情，這是壓力最大的。從某種程度上來說，這與190年代被220年代取代是同時發生的。當然，就長度而言，220 能夠比 190 執行更多的任務。所以我認為，在某種程度上，無論這是否是 NEA，我們可能會尋求從業務市場進入其他市場。 220 實際上為我們提供了更大的靈活性。

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Group from Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group。

So the maintenance step-up in Q4, I'm just wondering, does that continue into '24? I'm just -- you said for first half we'll have pilots, maybe we get some benefit from NEA coming down. But just overall, do you see a path to CASM ex being down next year?

因此，我只是想知道第四季度的維護升級是否會持續到 24 年？我只是——你說上半年我們會有飛行員，也許我們會從 NEA 的下降中得到一些好處。但總體而言，您認為明年 CASM ex 會出現下滑嗎？

Thanks for the question, Scott. In regards to CASM ex fuel for 2024, a meaningful input to that is the actual capacity growth expectations, which I kind of highlighted earlier, is pretty fluid given the Airbus delivery delays as well as Pratt & Whitney. So if we were targeting mid- to high single-digit capacity, the goal would be to deliver flattish CASM ex fuel over the next few years.

謝謝你的提問，斯科特。關於 2024 年 CASM 不包括燃料，一個有意義的輸入是實際產能增長預期，我之前強調過，考慮到空客和普惠公司的交付延遲，實際產能增長預期相當不穩定。因此，如果我們的目標是中高個位數產能，那麼目標將是在未來幾年內交付持平的 CASM（不含燃料）。

Specific to your question on Q4, this is just the timing of maintenance spend specific to the year-over-year comp. What we have highlighted that maintenance will continue to be a headwind over the next few years just given the V2500 fleet, but that's also why we have the structural cost program in place. which I'm very pleased on the progress that we're making on that program in order to continue to mitigate maintenance pressures over the next few years.

具體到您關於第四季度的問題，這只是針對同比比較的維護支出的時間安排。我們強調，鑑於 V2500 機隊，維護在未來幾年將繼續成為一個阻力，但這也是我們制定結構性成本計劃的原因。我對我們在該計劃上取得的進展感到非常高興，以便繼續減輕未來幾年的維護壓力。

Okay. And then, Robin, the NEA ruling and then your decision to withdraw, how does that, in your mind, bolster or not your confidence around getting the Spirit deal done?

好的。然後，羅賓，國家能源局的裁決，然後你決定退出，在你看來，這是否增強了你完成精神交易的信心？

Well, the -- first of all, folks on the Spirit deal -- but also if you read the complaint, there's -- they talk about -- the DOJ talks about the NEA. And certainly, it came up a lot during the course of the last year. And so we've completely taken that off the table. When we went into this at the beginning, we felt the NEA was pro-competitive.

嗯，首先，有關精神協議的人們，但如果你讀過投訴，就會發現，他們談論的是 DOJ 談論 NEA。當然，它在去年出現了很多次。所以我們已經完全排除了這個可能性。當我們一開始討論這個問題時，我們認為 NEA 是有利於競爭的。

We still do. We lost the case. And as such, we're moving on. And so this is now -- and I think if you look at the strength of the legacy airlines at the moment and just the benefit of the scale and the geographic diversity, I think this plays extremely well into our argument about creating a pro-consumer national low-fare, high-quality airline as the best catalyst the competition that we have. And so we're going to focus on now making that case.

我們仍然這樣做。我們輸掉了官司。因此，我們正在繼續前進。所以現在就是這樣——我認為，如果你看看目前傳統航空公司的實力以及規模和地理多樣性的好處，我認為這非常適合我們關於創建親消費者的論點全國性的低票價、高品質的航空公司作為我們競爭的最佳催化劑。因此，我們現在將重點關注這個案例。

Thank you.. There are no further questions at this time. I'd now like to turn the call back over to Mr. [Kush] Patel for any closing remarks.

謝謝.. 目前沒有其他問題。現在我想將電話轉回給[庫什]帕特爾先生，請他發表結束語。

Thanks, Lara. And that concludes our second quarter 2023 conference call. Thank you for joining us.

謝謝，拉拉。我們的 2023 年第二季度電話會議到此結束。感謝您加入我們。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask you please disconnect your lines. Have a lovely day.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與，並請您斷開線路。祝你愉快。