JetBlue Airways Corp (JBLU) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Joanna, and I would like to welcome everyone to the JetBlue Airways Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to JetBlue's Director Assistant Treasurer & Fuel, Joe Caiado. Please go ahead.

早上好。我叫喬安娜，歡迎大家參加捷藍航空 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。提醒一下，今天的通話正在錄音中。 （操作員說明）我現在想將會議轉交給 JetBlue 的董事助理財務主管和燃料，Joe Caiado。請繼續。

Thanks, Joanna. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us for our fourth quarter 2022 earnings call. This morning, we issued our earnings release and a presentation that we'll reference during this call. All of those documents are available on our website at investor.jetblue.com and have been filed with the SEC. In New York to discuss our results are Robin Hayes, our Chief Executive Officer; Joanna Geraghty, our President and Chief Operating Officer; and Ursula Hurley, our Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us for Q&A are Dave Clark, Head of Revenue and Planning; and Andres Barry, President of JetBlue Travel Products.

謝謝，喬安娜。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們的 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。今天早上，我們發布了我們將在本次電話會議中參考的收益發布和演示文稿。所有這些文件都可以在我們的網站 investor.jetblue.com 上找到，並已提交給美國證券交易委員會。在紐約討論我們的結果的是我們的首席執行官 Robin Hayes； Joanna Geraghty，我們的總裁兼首席運營官；和我們的首席財務官 Ursula Hurley。收入和規劃主管 Dave Clark 也加入了我們的問答環節； JetBlue Travel Products 總裁 Andres Barry。

This morning's call includes forward-looking statements about future events. All such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from these statements. Please refer to our most recent earnings release and our most recent Form 10-Q or 10-K for a more detailed discussion of the risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking statements, including, among others, the COVID-19 pandemic, fuel availability and pricing, the outcome of the lawsuit filed by the DOJ related to our Northeast Alliance and the various risks and uncertainties related to JetBlue's acquisition of Spirit Airlines.

今天上午的電話會議包括有關未來事件的前瞻性陳述。所有此類前瞻性陳述都存在一定的風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與這些陳述存在重大差異。請參閱我們最近的收益發布和我們最近的 10-Q 或 10-K 表格，以更詳細地討論可能導致實際結果與我們前瞻性陳述中包含的結果大不相同的風險和不確定性，包括，除其他外，COVID-19 大流行、燃料可用性和定價、美國司法部提起的與我們東北聯盟有關的訴訟結果以及與捷藍航空收購精神航空公司相關的各種風險和不確定性。

The statements made during this call are made only as of the date of the call, and we undertake no obligation to update the information. Investors should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. Also during the course of our call, we may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. For an explanation and a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to GAAP measures, please refer to the tables at the end of our earnings release, a copy of which is available on our website. And now I'd like to turn the call over to Robin Hayes, JetBlue's CEO.

本次電話會議期間所做的陳述僅截至電話會議之日，我們不承擔更新信息的義務。投資者不應過分依賴這些前瞻性陳述。同樣在我們的通話過程中，我們可能會討論某些非 GAAP 財務措施。有關這些非 GAAP 措施與 GAAP 措施的解釋和協調，請參閱我們的收益發布末尾的表格，我們的網站上提供了一份表格副本。現在我想把電話轉給 JetBlue 的首席執行官 Robin Hayes。

Thanks, Joe. Good morning, everyone. Greetings here from New York City, and we appreciate you joining us today. I'll start, as always, with a huge thanks and shout-out to our 24,000 crew members. We overcame many challenges together throughout this past year, and we made tremendous progress in restoring the business coming out of the pandemic. And we're set up to further build on that success here in 2023, with a disciplined plan to continue strengthening our foundations, both operationally and financially. While we face economic uncertainty, we remain focused on what we can control, and we are leveraging our unique value proposition of offering both great service and low fares enabled by our low-cost structure. This will result in margin expansion and robust earnings growth.

謝謝，喬。大家，早安。來自紐約市的問候，感謝您今天加入我們。一如既往，我將首先向我們的 24,000 名機組人員表示衷心的感謝和歡呼。在過去的一年裡，我們共同克服了許多挑戰，在恢復大流行後的業務方面取得了巨大進展。我們準備在 2023 年進一步鞏固這一成功，制定嚴格的計劃，繼續加強我們在運營和財務方面的基礎。雖然我們面臨經濟不確定性，但我們仍然專注於我們可以控制的事情，我們正在利用我們獨特的價值主張，即通過我們的低成本結構提供優質服務和低票價。這將導致利潤率擴張和強勁的盈利增長。

Turning now to Slide 4 of our new deck template. We closed the year with significant cost and revenue momentum, resulting in an adjusted pretax income of $69 million for the quarter and earnings per share of $0.22. Reflecting back on the full year 2022, we made important progress in positioning JetBlue for longer-term success. We hit a new record annual revenue result, a phenomenal achievement by our team, given we were only 2 years removed from the depths of the worst crisis in aviation history.

現在轉到我們新的幻燈片模板的幻燈片 4。我們以顯著的成本和收入勢頭結束了這一年，導致本季度調整後的稅前收入為 6900 萬美元，每股收益為 0.22 美元。回顧 2022 年全年，我們在為捷藍航空取得長期成功方面取得了重要進展。我們創下了新的年度收入記錄，這是我們團隊的一項非凡成就，因為我們距離航空史上最嚴重危機的深淵僅過去了 2 年。

We continue to see incredible demand for JetBlue's differentiated product of low fares and great service, which was recently recognized by The Points Guy with an Editor's Choice Award for Best Economy Class in the world. We launched a new structural cost program targeting $150 million to $200 million of cost savings by the end of 2024. This program is designed to ensure that we are offsetting some of the inflationary increases in our cost structure and help us maintain a low-cost platform, allowing us to continue to offer even more lower fares. We strengthened our network and built even more relevance for our customers by adding more service to more destinations, including significant growth out of New York, enabled by our Northeast Alliance with American Airlines as well as building out our transatlantic service between the Northeast and London with additional frequency.

我們繼續看到對捷藍航空低票價和優質服務的差異化產品的難以置信的需求，該產品最近獲得了 The Points Guy 的認可，獲得了世界最佳經濟艙編輯選擇獎。我們啟動了一項新的結構性成本計劃，目標是到 2024 年底節省 1.5 億至 2 億美元的成本。該計劃旨在確保我們抵消成本結構中的部分通脹增長，並幫助我們維持低成本平台，使我們能夠繼續提供更低的票價。我們加強了我們的網絡，並通過向更多目的地增加更多服務，包括紐約以外的顯著增長，通過我們與美國航空公司的東北聯盟以及在東北和倫敦之間建立我們的跨大西洋服務來加強我們的網絡並與我們的客戶建立更多的相關性額外的頻率。

We also moved into state-of-the-art wonderful new terminals at LaGuardia and Orlando and recently secured our third slot pair at London Heathrow. Our ESG efforts continue to lead the industry. Last quarter, we announced our most aggressive emissions reduction target yet, with a plan that would effectively reduce our per-seat emissions in half by 2035 compared with 2019 levels as part of our recently announced science-based target. JetBlue is the only U.S. carrier today to be flying regular domestic flights with fuel supply by both currently available SAF producers while supporting a portfolio of emerging suppliers with significant forward commitments.

我們還搬進了拉瓜迪亞機場和奧蘭多最先進的精彩新航站樓，最近在倫敦希思羅機場獲得了我們的第三對航班時刻。我們在 ESG 方面的努力繼續引領行業。上個季度，我們宣布了我們迄今為止最激進的減排目標，作為我們最近宣布的基於科學的目標的一部分，我們計劃到 2035 年將我們的人均排放量與 2019 年的水平相比有效減少一半。捷藍航空是當今唯一一家使用目前可用的 SAF 生產商提供燃料並支持新興供應商組合併做出重大遠期承諾的定期國內航班的唯一一家美國航空公司。

We also made great progress on our diversity, equity and inclusion goals. Our external customer research shows that JetBlue ranks #1 for diversity and inclusion in accommodating travelers in our focus cities. And our Gateway Direct program open to our crew members aspiring to become pilots, people of color represent 82% of our classes.

我們在多元化、公平和包容性目標方面也取得了長足進步。我們的外部客戶研究表明，捷藍航空在我們重點城市的旅客住宿多樣性和包容性方面排名第一。我們的 Gateway Direct 計劃向有志成為飛行員的機組人員開放，有色人種占我們班級的 82%。

As we look ahead to 2023, we are capitalizing on the strength of our trusted travel brand to drive record customer engagement and continued revenue momentum. We are making steady underlying progress on our long-term initiatives to structurally improve our profitability and enhance our long-term earnings power with a low fare offering that appeals to a wide range of customers, supported by our growing traction on our cost program. This gives me great confidence that we can restore margins towards 2019 levels as we move throughout this year.

展望 2023 年，我們正在利用我們值得信賴的旅遊品牌的實力來推動創紀錄的客戶參與度和持續的收入增長勢頭。在我們對成本計劃日益增長的牽引力的支持下，我們的長期計劃正在取得穩步的根本進展，以結構性地提高我們的盈利能力，並通過吸引廣泛客戶的低票價產品來增強我們的長期盈利能力。這讓我充滿信心，我們可以在今年全年移動時將利潤率恢復到 2019 年的水平。

Beyond 2023, we look forward to transformational long-term value creation for all of our stakeholders with the acquisition of Spirit, which will allow us to create a truly national customer-centric, low-fare challenger to the big 4 airlines. This will enable us to bring more of our unique value proposition to more customers across more destinations. As we said before, we continue to expect this transaction to close no later than the first half of 2024.

2023 年以後，我們期待通過收購 Spirit 為我們所有的利益相關者創造變革性的長期價值，這將使我們能夠創建一個真正以全國客戶為中心的低票價挑戰者，以挑戰四大航空公司。這將使我們能夠為更多目的地的更多客戶帶來更多獨特的價值主張。正如我們之前所說，我們繼續預計這筆交易將不遲於 2024 年上半年完成。

Moving now to Slide 5. For the first quarter, which is a seasonally tough travel period, we projected an adjusted loss of between $0.35 and $0.45 per share. We expect continued revenue strength and execution on cost reduction efforts throughout the year with a margin trajectory approaching pre-pandemic levels as we exit 2023 despite significantly higher labor cost and fuel prices. As a result, for the full year 2023, we expect to generate between $0.70 to $1 in adjusted earnings per share, which is inclusive of a new pilot deal that we hope will be ratified very soon. This full year EPS guidance reflects the improvement that we expect throughout the year and highlight the run rate earnings profile of the stand-alone business into 2024 as we execute on new and existing initiatives across the business.

現在轉到幻燈片 5。第一季度是季節性艱難的旅行期，我們預計調整後每股虧損在 0.35 美元至 0.45 美元之間。我們預計，儘管勞動力成本和燃料價格大幅上漲，但隨著我們在 2023 年退出，全年收入將繼續強勁並執行降低成本的工作，利潤率軌跡將接近大流行前的水平。因此，對於 2023 年全年，我們預計調整後每股收益將在 0.70 美元至 1 美元之間，其中包括我們希望很快獲得批准的新試點交易。這一全年 EPS 指引反映了我們全年預期的改善，並強調了獨立業務到 2024 年的運行率收益狀況，因為我們在整個業務中執行新的和現有的計劃。

The contribution from our Northeast Alliance will continue to ramp in 2023. We are so encouraged by the improvement in economic growth in New York as measured by GDP after lagging the rest of the country last year. At the same time, both JetBlue and industry capacity in the region recovered more quickly than the rest of the U.S. in 2022, which provides a sequential tailwind in 2023 as that growth matures. We continue to see incredible momentum in our loyalty program, which continues to not only exceed our expectation but also hit new records. We recently announced the evolution of our TrueBlue loyalty program, which Joanna will elaborate on shortly.

我們東北聯盟的貢獻將在 2023 年繼續增加。我們對紐約經濟增長的改善感到非常鼓舞，以 GDP 衡量，去年落後於該國其他地區。與此同時，捷藍航空和該地區的工業產能在 2022 年的恢復速度都快於美國其他地區，隨著增長的成熟，這為 2023 年提供了連續的順風。我們繼續在忠誠度計劃中看到令人難以置信的勢頭，它不僅繼續超出我們的預期，而且還創下了新記錄。我們最近宣布了 TrueBlue 忠誠度計劃的發展，Joanna 稍後將對此進行詳細說明。

With respect to our network, we are planning to take delivery of 4 A321LR aircraft this year to support our continued transatlantic network expansion. We are very excited to launch service to Paris this summer, marking our second transatlantic destination and our first in Continental Europe as we build customer relevance from our key focus cities.

在我們的網絡方面，我們計劃今年接收 4 架 A321LR 飛機，以支持我們持續的跨大西洋網絡擴張。我們很高興今年夏天推出飛往巴黎的服務，這標誌著我們的第二個跨大西洋目的地和我們在歐洲大陸的第一個目的地，因為我們從我們的主要重點城市建立了客戶相關性。

Our JetBlue Travel Products subsidiary took another fantastic step forward last year with 59% revenue growth versus 2021 and 136% revenue growth versus 2019. This progress is a result of continued product innovation across JetBlue Vacations, travel insurance and our new Paisly platform, coupled with increased customer awareness. When we started JetBlue Travel Products, we set a target of $100 million run rate EBIT by 2022 compared to $15 million of EBIT in 2019. I am so pleased to share that we are near the $100 million, with consistent $20 million to $25 million of quarterly earnings with growing momentum into 2023. We continue to be optimistic about the growth potential of this business and aim now to roughly double our current run rate EBIT in the next 3 years.

我們的 JetBlue Travel Products 子公司去年又向前邁出了一大步，與 2021 年相比收入增長了 59%，與 2019 年相比收入增長了 136%。這一進步是 JetBlue Vacations、旅遊保險和我們新的 Paisly 平台持續進行產品創新的結果，再加上提高客戶意識。當我們啟動 JetBlue Travel Products 時，我們設定了到 2022 年 1 億美元的息稅前利潤目標，而 2019 年的息稅前利潤為 1500 萬美元。我很高興與大家分享，我們接近 1 億美元，並且始終保持 2000 萬至 2500 萬美元的息稅前利潤季度收益增長勢頭持續到 2023 年。我們繼續對該業務的增長潛力持樂觀態度，現在的目標是在未來 3 年內將我們當前的息稅前利潤率翻一番。

Finally, we continue to make strides to transform our cost footprint. We remain on track to deliver $250 million of total cost savings through 2024 with execution on our structural cost program and our fleet modernization efforts, which Ursula will touch on here very shortly with more detail.

最後，我們繼續大踏步改變我們的成本足跡。通過執行我們的結構成本計劃和機隊現代化工作，我們有望在 2024 年之前實現 2.5 億美元的總成本節省，厄休拉將很快在這裡詳細介紹。

In closing, I would again like to thank our crew members for your dedication and all of your incredible hard work in 2022. I am so optimistic about how we are positioning the business for long-term success and so proud of the role that all of you have played in that. We have a strong foundation in place to execute on our plan to structurally enhance our long-term earnings power and create value for our shareholders. With that, Joanna, over to you.

最後，我要再次感謝我們的工作人員在 2022 年的奉獻精神和所有令人難以置信的辛勤工作。我對我們如何定位業務以取得長期成功感到非常樂觀，並為所有人的角色感到自豪你玩過那個。我們擁有堅實的基礎來執行我們的計劃，從結構上增強我們的長期盈利能力並為我們的股東創造價值。有了這個，喬安娜，交給你了。

Thank you, Robin. I would also like to thank our team for the hard work day in and day out and for the incredible job in closing out the year strong. You've persevered and navigated through many challenges this past year from severe weather events to ATC outages, all against a backdrop of historic demand for air travel. We also made great strides this year to improve our operational reliability. Following our operational reset last spring, we made investments and embraced a more cautious operating planning philosophy, which has served us well as evidenced by our execution in the back half of the year. And I'm very pleased to report that our completion factor for the month of December was north of 98%, which puts us at the top of the industry, an incredible achievement.

謝謝你，羅賓。我還要感謝我們的團隊日復一日的辛勤工作，以及出色的工作，以強勁的勢頭結束了這一年。在過去的一年裡，從惡劣的天氣事件到空中交通管制中斷，您一直堅持並克服了許多挑戰，所有這些都是在航空旅行的歷史需求背景下進行的。今年，我們在提高運營可靠性方面也取得了長足進步。在去年春天我們的運營重置之後，我們進行了投資並採用了更加謹慎的運營規劃理念，這對我們很有幫助，我們在今年下半年的執行證明了這一點。我很高興地報告說，我們 12 月份的完成率超過 98%，這使我們處於行業領先地位，這是一項了不起的成就。

Turning to Slide 7. For the fourth quarter of 2022, capacity grew 2.4% year over three, in line with our initial expectations and despite severe weather across our system. Looking ahead, we continue to see results from our operational investments with strong completion factor trends as we continue to operate in a challenging ATC environment. We expect capacity to be up 5.5% to 8.5% year-over-year, both for the first quarter and for the full year 2023. Our capacity growth this year will largely come from increased utilization, which should also drive improved productivity. As always, we will remain nimble with capacity as the year progresses and take decisive action through the lens of margins. Given the continued fragility of the aviation ecosystem, we continue to plan our operation with a level of conservatism for the foreseeable future, including scheduled buffers as well as increased crew reserve levels.

轉到幻燈片 7。2022 年第四季度，運力比三年增長 2.4%，符合我們最初的預期，儘管我們的系統天氣惡劣。展望未來，隨著我們繼續在充滿挑戰的 ATC 環境中運營，我們將繼續看到我們的運營投資結果具有強勁的完成因素趨勢。我們預計第一季度和 2023 年全年的產能將同比增長 5.5% 至 8.5%。我們今年的產能增長將主要來自利用率的提高，這也將推動生產力的提高。一如既往，隨著時間的推移，我們將保持靈活的產能，並通過利潤率採取果斷行動。鑑於航空生態系統的持續脆弱性，我們在可預見的未來繼續以一定程度的保守主義來規劃我們的運營，包括定期緩衝以及增加機組人員儲備水平。

Last year, our network focus was primarily centered on ramping our Northeast Alliance and delivering on its promise, bringing low fares and great service to more communities and boosting competition in the region. Growth from the NEA far outpaced overall domestic industry capacity growth, bringing enormous consumer benefits in the process as we have successfully created a true third alternative for customers in the region. And during the fourth quarter, we announced exciting news with plans to add more destinations and choice out of the Northeast as we strengthen our footprint.

去年，我們的網絡重點主要集中在擴大我們的東北聯盟並兌現其承諾，為更多社區帶來低票價和優質服務，並促進該地區的競爭。 NEA 的增長遠遠超過了國內行業整體產能的增長，在這個過程中為消費者帶來了巨大的利益，因為我們已經成功地為該地區的客戶創造了真正的第三種選擇。在第四季度，我們宣布了令人振奮的消息，計劃在我們加強足蹟的同時增加東北以外的更多目的地和選擇。

Looking ahead to 2023, we also plan to add service across other non-slotted focus cities where we see meaningful margin opportunities. We expect to continue restoring our Boston network and increase capacity in Florida and in San Juan. We are also building on the success of our Mint franchise with further expansion at Los Angeles as well as the launch of service this summer to our latest transatlantic destination and Europe's most visited city, Paris.

展望 2023 年，我們還計劃在我們看到有意義的利潤機會的其他非指定重點城市增加服務。我們希望繼續恢復波士頓網絡並增加佛羅里達和聖胡安的容量。我們還在 Mint 特許經營權的成功基礎上進一步擴大在洛杉磯的業務，並在今年夏天向我們最新的跨大西洋目的地和歐洲遊客最多的城市巴黎推出服務。

In the fourth quarter, revenue per available seat mile was up 16.1% year over three, slightly better than our mid-December investor update, fueled by strong close-in demand to close out the year. The robust underlying demand trends, combined with the solid execution of our commercial initiatives, drove the highest full year revenue results in our history despite operational challenges in the first half of the year. As we kick off 2023, we are pleased to see the demand environment remains strong into a seasonally trough period. For the first quarter, we are forecasting revenue to increase between 28% to 32% year-over-year.

在第四季度，每可用座位英里的收入比三年增長了 16.1%，略好於我們 12 月中旬的投資者更新，這得益於年底強勁的近距離需求。儘管上半年面臨運營挑戰，但強勁的潛在需求趨勢加上我們商業計劃的穩健執行，推動了我們歷史上最高的全年收入業績。在我們開啟 2023 年之際，我們很高興看到需求環境在季節性低谷期依然強勁。對於第一季度，我們預計收入將同比增長 28% 至 32%。

Looking further ahead, we are excited to continue building on last year's record performance as we expect another strong year of revenue growth ahead of us, underpinned by robust leisure demand and multiple network and commercial initiatives. I am pleased with the early performance of our transatlantic service, which remains ahead of our expectations. Meanwhile, our Mint cabin remains a bright spot with Mint RASM continuing to outperform core, as you would expect, and all of our A321neo deliveries this year are in the Mint configuration.

展望未來，我們很高興能繼續保持去年創紀錄的業績，因為我們預計在強勁的休閒需求和多項網絡和商業計劃的支持下，我們將迎來又一個強勁的收入增長年。我對我們跨大西洋服務的早期表現感到滿意，這仍然超出了我們的預期。與此同時，我們的 Mint 機艙仍然是一個亮點，Mint RASM 的性能繼續優於核心機艙，正如您所期望的那樣，我們今年交付的所有 A321neo 都是 Mint 配置。

We are also pleased with the early performance of the NEA. Last year, we more than tripled our number of daily flights at LaGuardia compared with pre-pandemic levels, a tremendous amount of growth in a very short period of time. And these new markets will continue to ramp throughout 2023. We expect the earnings contribution from the NEA to increase over the coming years as this service matures.

我們也對 NEA 的早期表現感到滿意。去年，與大流行前的水平相比，我們在拉瓜迪亞的每日航班數量增加了兩倍多，在很短的時間內實現了巨大的增長。這些新市場將在整個 2023 年繼續增長。隨著這項服務的成熟，我們預計未來幾年 NEA 的收益貢獻將會增加。

Turning to loyalty. This part of the business is performing exceptionally well and is on a very encouraging long-term trajectory. We saw yet another record in co-brand spend last month and we continue to meet our strong growth targets. Active customer engagement with our TrueBlue program is also at historic highs, reflected in the number of active cardholders and program activity. We achieved our best year ever in program enrollment, which was up 50% year-over-year while co-brand sign-ups were up 40% year-over-year.

轉向忠誠度。這部分業務表現異常出色，並且處於非常令人鼓舞的長期軌道上。上個月，我們的聯合品牌支出再創新高，我們繼續實現強勁的增長目標。積極的客戶參與我們的 TrueBlue 計劃也處於歷史高位，這反映在活躍持卡人的數量和計劃活動中。我們在計劃註冊方面取得了有史以來最好的一年，同比增長 50%，而聯合品牌註冊量同比增長 40%。

In December, we also announced the exciting new iteration of TrueBlue, which is launching later this year. Our new program is designed to appeal to a wide variety of customers, whether you are a Mosaic member or travel just once a year. It is a truly differentiated approach to loyalty as we give more opportunities to all customers to earn rewards faster, drive utility through more options and choice and increase their engagement with the program in TrueBlue. The evolution of our TrueBlue program, including the launch of other airline redemptions and a new credit card portfolio, also supports our evolution to a travel brand as our customers can earn points and qualify for Mosaic when booking travel beyond just flights. This is an important driver of our multiyear journey to grow this revenue stream as a percentage of our total revenue base and close the gap to best-in-class loyalty performance.

12 月，我們還宣布了激動人心的 TrueBlue 新版本，將於今年晚些時候推出。我們的新計劃旨在吸引各種各樣的客戶，無論您是美盛會員還是每年只旅行一次。這是一種真正差異化的忠誠度方法，因為我們為所有客戶提供更多機會以更快地獲得獎勵，通過更多選擇和選擇推動效用，並增加他們對 TrueBlue 計劃的參與度。我們 TrueBlue 計劃的發展，包括推出其他航空公司的兌換和新的信用卡組合，也支持我們向旅遊品牌的發展，因為我們的客戶在預訂航班以外的旅行時可以獲得積分並有資格使用 Mosaic。這是我們多年旅程的重要推動力，旨在增加這一收入流占我們總收入基礎的百分比，並縮小與一流忠誠度績效的差距。

I'll close with another huge thanks to our crew members for going above and beyond every day no matter the circumstances. The investments we have made position us well to reliably deliver the JetBlue experience, and this year is all about execution from planning our operation to delivering our day of performance and to executing numerous revenue initiatives. And in doing so, we will build a better and stronger JetBlue for all stakeholders. Ursula, I'll now turn the call over to you.

最後，我將再次非常感謝我們的工作人員，無論情況如何，他們每天都超越自我。我們所做的投資使我們能夠很好地可靠地提供 JetBlue 體驗，今年的重點是執行，從規劃我們的運營到交付我們的績效日，再到執行眾多收入計劃。通過這樣做，我們將為所有利益相關者打造一個更好、更強大的捷藍航空。厄休拉，我現在把電話轉給你。

Thank you, Joanna, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. I'd also like to add my thanks to our dedicated crew members for all of their hard work in closing out the year on a strong note. We achieved another quarter of profitability as our teams delivered for our customers. At the same time, we've been focused on building a 2023 plan to create a stronger JetBlue for all of our stakeholders.

謝謝你，喬安娜，大家早上好。感謝您加入我們。我還要感謝我們敬業的工作人員，感謝他們辛勤工作，以出色的成績結束了這一年。由於我們的團隊為客戶提供服務，我們又實現了四分之一的盈利。與此同時，我們一直專注於製定 2023 年計劃，為我們所有的利益相關者打造更強大的捷藍航空。

Turning to Slide 9. Our return to profitability in the second half of 2022 was an important milestone in our recovery. We effectively navigated a very challenging year, having set ourselves up for success back in the spring with an operational reset. And we've seen vastly improved operational performance and reliability since then. While we are expecting a net loss in the seasonally weaker first quarter, we're very confident that we're on a path to materially improve our financial performance through the remainder of 2023 and deliver a full year adjusted profit. We remain laser-focused on executing the commercial and operational initiatives Joanna outlined plus our ongoing cost discipline.

轉到幻燈片 9。我們在 2022 年下半年恢復盈利是我們復甦的一個重要里程碑。我們有效地度過了充滿挑戰的一年，並在春季通過運營重置為成功做好了準備。從那時起，我們已經看到運營性能和可靠性得到了極大改善。雖然我們預計在季節性較弱的第一季度出現淨虧損，但我們非常有信心，我們將在 2023 年剩餘時間內顯著改善我們的財務業績，並實現全年調整後的利潤。我們仍然專注於執行喬安娜概述的商業和運營計劃以及我們持續的成本紀律。

We're pleased to have reached a tentative agreement with ALPA to extend our collective bargaining agreement for 2 years, which our pilots are currently voting to ratify. This gives us planning certainty, and we believe this deal will ensure JetBlue remains competitive while facilitating a smooth transition to eventual joint CBA negotiations following our acquisition of Spirit.

我們很高興與 ALPA 達成臨時協議，將我們的集體談判協議延長 2 年，我們的飛行員目前正在投票批准該協議。這給了我們計劃的確定性，我們相信這筆交易將確保 JetBlue 保持競爭力，同時促進我們在收購 Spirit 後順利過渡到最終的聯合 CBA 談判。

Our 2023 outlook for CASM ex-fuel and earnings per share assumes the estimated impact of this pilot deal, which is worth approximately 1 point to CASM ex-fuel in the first quarter and approximately 3 points for the full year.

我們對 CASM 前燃料和每股收益的 2023 年展望假設了該試點交易的估計影響，第一季度對 CASM 前燃料的影響約為 1 個百分點，全年約為 3 個百分點。

For the first quarter of 2023, we are forecasting CASM ex-fuel to increase 2% to 4% year-over-year. Our nonfuel unit costs would be up 1% to 3% year-over-year when excluding the impact from the CBA. Importantly, we are still on track to deliver on our prior goal to flat CASM ex-fuel this year when adjusting for the 3-point impact of the ALPA deal. Last year, we launched a new structural cost program to help mitigate other cost headwinds and set an optimal cost foundation to support long-term margin expansion. These cost pressures are primarily related to maintenance and rents and landing fees, which are collectively worth a 2-point headwind to CASM ex-fuel in 2023 on a year-over-year basis.

對於 2023 年第一季度，我們預測 CASM 前燃料將同比增長 2% 至 4%。如果排除 CBA 的影響，我們的非燃料單位成本將同比增長 1% 至 3%。重要的是，在針對 ALPA 交易的 3 點影響進行調整時，我們仍有望實現我們之前的目標，即今年將 CASM 前燃料持平。去年，我們推出了一項新的結構性成本計劃，以幫助緩解其他成本不利因素，並建立最佳成本基礎以支持長期利潤率擴張。這些成本壓力主要與維護、租金和著陸費有關，這些成本在 2023 年同比對 CASM 前燃料造成 2 個百分點的逆風。

The structural cost program is well on track to deliver roughly $70 million in cost savings this year and $150 million to $200 million of cost savings through 2024. Our work has already delivered roughly $30 million since launch, and we expect savings to accelerate throughout 2023. Some of the most meaningful drivers of this year's cost savings include improved productivity, optimized maintenance work scopes and enhanced productivity across work groups through our enterprise planning function. We also expect over $40 million of savings through 2023 and $75 million through 2024 from our accelerated transition from E190s to A220s. Combined, this brings total cost savings to $250 million through 2024.

結構性成本計劃有望在今年實現約 7000 萬美元的成本節約，到 2024 年實現 1.5 億至 2 億美元的成本節約。自啟動以來，我們的工作已經實現了約 3000 萬美元的成本節約，我們預計整個 2023 年成本節約將加速。今年成本節約的一些最有意義的驅動因素包括提高生產力、優化維護工作範圍以及通過我們的企業規劃功能提高整個工作組的生產力。我們還預計，通過我們從 E190 到 A220 的加速過渡，到 2023 年將節省超過 4000 萬美元，到 2024 年將節省 7500 萬美元。到 2024 年，這將使總成本節省達到 2.5 億美元。

In addition to the higher labor costs, we're working hard to offset cost pressures from higher rents and landing fees tied to operating and growing in high-cost terminals across our high-value geography as well as elevated maintenance activity, given the age of our fleet.

除了更高的勞動力成本外，我們正在努力抵消與在我們高價值地區的高成本碼頭運營和發展相關的租金和著陸費上漲以及維護活動增加帶來的成本壓力，考慮到年齡我們的艦隊。

Turning to liquidity and the balance sheet on Slide 10. Recall that we ended the third quarter of 2022 with $2.3 billion in liquidity. And in the fourth quarter, we paid down $114 million of debt, funded $324 million in capital expenditures and made a $272 million prepayment to Spirit's shareholders. We also signed an agreement to become a minority investor in the new JFK Terminal 6, which closed in November. As a result, we ended the year with liquidity of $1.6 billion or 17% of trailing 12-month revenue, excluding our undrawn $600 million revolver.

轉向幻燈片 10 上的流動性和資產負債表。回想一下，我們在 2022 年第三季度結束時擁有 23 億美元的流動性。在第四季度，我們償還了 1.14 億美元的債務，為資本支出提供了 3.24 億美元的資金，並向 Spirit 的股東預付了 2.72 億美元的款項。我們還簽署了一項協議，成為 11 月關閉的新肯尼迪國際機場 6 號航站樓的少數投資者。因此，我們年底的流動資金為 16 億美元，佔過去 12 個月收入的 17%，不包括我們未動用的 6 億美元循環貸款。

For 2023, we expect cash outflows related to the monthly Spirit shareholder prepayment to total approximately $130 million for the full year. We're forecasting full year 2023 CapEx to be approximately $1.3 billion, consisting mainly of aircraft CapEx as we continue to modernize our fleet. This forecast assumes 19 aircraft deliveries this year. It's worth noting that much of our capacity growth this year will actually come in the form of restoring utilization. So if we do experience further aircraft delivery delays, we don't expect such delays to drive meaningful changes to our full year capacity guidance.

到 2023 年，我們預計全年與每月 Spirit 股東預付款相關的現金流出總額約為 1.3 億美元。我們預測 2023 年全年資本支出約為 13 億美元，其中主要包括飛機資本支出，因為我們將繼續對機隊進行現代化改造。該預測假設今年交付 19 架飛機。值得注意的是，我們今年的大部分產能增長實際上將以恢復利用率的形式出現。因此，如果我們確實遇到進一步的飛機交付延誤，我們預計此類延誤不會對我們的全年運力指導做出有意義的改變。

We remain very focused on maintaining a healthy liquidity balance. Given continued economic uncertainty and fuel price volatility, we intend to finance a portion of our aircraft deliveries this year rather than using cash. That said, our long-term balance sheet priorities remain unchanged. We plan to generate solid earnings and operating cash flow this year. And following the close of the Spirit transaction, we expect the strong pro forma cash flow profile to support a quick deleveraging of the balance sheet from what we still expect to be a very manageable level at closing.

我們仍然非常專注於保持健康的流動性平衡。鑑於持續的經濟不確定性和燃料價格波動，我們打算為今年交付的部分飛機提供資金，而不是使用現金。也就是說，我們的長期資產負債表優先事項保持不變。我們計劃今年產生可觀的收益和經營現金流。在 Spirit 交易結束後，我們預計強勁的備考現金流狀況將支持資產負債表從我們仍然期望在交易結束時處於非常可控的水平快速去槓桿化。

Turning to Slide 11 for a recap of our financial outlook for the first quarter and full year 2023. We have discussed most of these guidance ranges already but I want to touch briefly on fuel, where we continue to see significant volatility in both oil and crack spreads. Last quarter, we executed some fuel hedges to protect against a spike in oil prices. As of today, we have hedged roughly 9% of our planned consumption for the first quarter of 2023 and will continue to be opportunistic going forward to help mitigate our financial risk. Given the volatility in the futures and regional markets such as New York Harbor Jet fuel, we have decided to provide a range for our fuel price guidance moving forward.

轉到幻燈片 11，回顧我們對 2023 年第一季度和全年的財務展望。我們已經討論了大部分指導範圍，但我想簡要談談燃料，我們繼續看到石油和裂解油的大幅波動價差。上個季度，我們執行了一些燃料對沖以防止油價飆升。截至今天，我們已對沖約 9% 的 2023 年第一季度計劃消費，並將繼續投機取巧，以幫助減輕我們的財務風險。鑑於紐約港噴氣燃料等期貨和區域市場的波動性，我們決定為我們未來的燃料價格指導提供一個範圍。

To conclude, I'd like to thank our team once again for all of your efforts to position us for long-term success. We're driving continued momentum from the back half of 2022 as we move into a stable and more normalized backdrop this year. I could not be more excited about the path we've laid out. We expect to generate our first full year of profit since the pandemic with an EPS in the range of $0.70 to $1. This guidance implies significant momentum in earnings as our initiatives ramp and we deliver margins close to 2019 levels later this year. And we believe our quarterly EPS run rate this year beyond Q1 is a better indication of our normalized earnings power into next year.

最後，我想再次感謝我們的團隊為我們取得長期成功所做的所有努力。隨著我們今年進入穩定和更加正常化的背景，我們將在 2022 年下半年推動持續的勢頭。我對我們鋪設的道路感到無比興奮。我們預計將產生自大流行以來的第一個全年利潤，每股收益在 0.70 美元至 1 美元之間。這一指引意味著隨著我們的舉措不斷增加，我們的利潤將在今年晚些時候接近 2019 年的水平，因此盈利勢頭強勁。我們相信我們今年第一季度之後的季度每股收益運行率更好地表明了我們明年的正常盈利能力。

The strong underlying revenue environment combined with our continued execution on optimizing costs gives me great confidence that we are on a path to generating strong margins and enhancing our earnings power. And we will work diligently to prepare for the acquisition of Spirit, which will only build on the strong foundations that we are laying today. I truly believe we are extremely well positioned for significant long-term value creation for our owners and all of our stakeholders. With that, we will now take your questions.

強勁的潛在收入環境加上我們在優化成本方面的持續執行，讓我充滿信心，相信我們正在創造可觀的利潤率並增強我們的盈利能力。我們將努力工作，為獲得精神做準備，這只會建立在我們今天奠定的堅實基礎之上。我堅信，我們完全有能力為我們的所有者和所有利益相關者創造重要的長期價值。有了這個，我們現在將回答您的問題。

Thanks, everyone. Joanna, we're now ready for the question-and-answer session. Please go ahead with the instructions.

謝謝大家。喬安娜，我們現在準備好進行問答環節了。請繼續按照說明進行操作。

(Operator Instructions) First question comes from Michael Linenberg at Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Michael Linenberg。

I guess 2 questions here, Joanna, just first to you. You talked about the NEA and you said you're expecting another year of ramp. I think, Robin, you sort of echoed that as well. Any sort of financial details or anything that you can provide around that to give us a sense of baseline or maybe where it's going? And if you're loath to give us financials, anything maybe like number of passengers who connect per day between the 2 carriers or maybe 1 or 2 or 3 load factor points on your planes are tied to their American customers, et cetera. Just anything that we can sort of assess how it's ramping.

我想這裡有 2 個問題，喬安娜，首先問你。你談到了 NEA，你說你期待又一年的增長。我想，羅賓，你也有點回應了。您可以提供任何類型的財務細節或任何可以讓我們了解基線或可能走向何方的信息嗎？而且，如果您不願意向我們提供財務數據，那麼任何事情都可能與他們的美國客戶相關聯，比如每天在兩家航空公司之間轉機的乘客數量，或者您飛機上的 1、2 或 3 個載客率點，等等。任何我們可以評估其增長方式的東西。

Thanks, Michael. Yes, we're not going to go into the financials. It's obviously still in ramp-up, and we're very in a very good place, given where we are in the trajectory. Maybe a couple of things worth calling out. JFK will be at combined NEA flights 290 in April. We'll be operating 190 of those. LaGuardia will be at a combined 190. We will be operating 52 of those, which triples our daily departures compared to 2019.

謝謝，邁克爾。是的，我們不打算進入財務領域。它顯然仍處於上升階段，考慮到我們在軌道上的位置，我們處於一個非常好的位置。也許有幾件事值得一提。肯尼迪國際機場將於 4 月乘坐 NEA 聯合航班 290。我們將運營其中的 190 個。拉瓜迪亞機場總共將有 190 家。我們將運營其中的 52 家，與 2019 年相比，我們的每日出發航班增加了兩倍。

And then growth, obviously, in Boston as well, will be at 220 in April from a flight departures perspective with JetBlue approaching 150. So we're seeing the NEA very much on the correct trajectory, a strong number of connecting passengers. We can go offline with you on specifics regarding that, but we're very pleased with the performance of the NEA and the acceleration that's given, frankly, to our New York markets and their recovery.

然後增長，很明顯，在波士頓，從航班起飛的角度來看，4 月份也將達到 220，而捷藍航空接近 150。所以我們看到 NEA 在正確的軌道上，大量的轉機乘客。我們可以就這方面的具體細節與您進行線下交流，但我們對 NEA 的表現以及坦率地說給我們的紐約市場及其複蘇帶來的加速感到非常滿意。

Okay, great. And then just second question to Robin. Just on sustainable aviation fuel, it does seem like that you guys have done -- you've been actually pretty aggressive in going out and sourcing future needs. And I suspect that as we move forward, some of these sort of benchmarks that the administration is pointing various industries toward will become mandates. And it does feel like that we can get to a point where there is very much a real shortage of SAF availability. Where are you on what you need to get to? I think it's 10%, I think a lot of -- is what the industry is aiming toward in 2030. How much of sort of where you are? And what are your thoughts on that about potentially leading to a shortage where carriers will have to rethink about their growth plans and this may be only a few years away?

好，太棒了。然後是羅賓的第二個問題。就可持續航空燃料而言，你們似乎確實已經做到了——你們實際上非常積極地走出去尋找未來的需求。而且我懷疑，隨著我們的前進，政府向各個行業指出的某些此類基準將成為強制要求。確實感覺我們可以達到 SAF 可用性非常短缺的地步。你在你需要去的地方在哪裡？我認為這是 10%，我認為很多 - 是該行業在 2030 年的目標。你在哪裡？您對這可能導致供應商不得不重新考慮其增長計劃的短缺有何看法，而這可能僅需幾年時間？

Mike, great question, and thanks for asking it. Yes, so to set the baseline, you're right. The industry target in the U.S. is 10% of SAF by 2030. It is going to require a lot of ramp up from where we are today to get there. I think that -- I don't believe that a mandate is on the horizon all required because airlines are very willing to buy this fuel. They're very willing to make commitments. And also the -- in the last year or 2, we've seen a lot of willingness from corporate customers as well to participate in some of the additional cost of buying SAF, which is again, making it easier for the airlines to commit and corporates to also continue traveling.

邁克，好問題，謝謝你提出這個問題。是的，所以要設置基線，你是對的。美國的行業目標是到 2030 年佔 SAF 的 10%。要實現這一目標，我們需要從今天的水平大幅提升。我認為——我不認為即將出現的一項強制要求都是必需的，因為航空公司非常願意購買這種燃料。他們非常願意做出承諾。還有——在過去的一兩年裡，我們看到很多企業客戶也願意參與購買 SAF 的一些額外成本，這再次讓航空公司更容易承諾和公司也可以繼續旅行。

So that, together with some of the federal incentives that we saw roll out last year. So I think everything moving in the right direction but there's a lot more that needs to be done. As you would expect, we are in conversations with all the major producers frequently and we're very active in acquiring SAF when we're able to do that.

因此，連同我們去年推出的一些聯邦激勵措施。所以我認為一切都在朝著正確的方向發展，但還有很多工作要做。正如您所期望的那樣，我們經常與所有主要生產商進行對話，並且在我們能夠做到這一點時我們非常積極地收購 SAF。

Next question comes from Savi Syth at Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Savi Syth。

Just on the comments around kind of increasing utilization to grow capacity and that should kind of help productivity. Could you provide a little bit more color on how this still kind of compares to 2019, given that it sounds like you still have a lot of conservatism here and what we could kind of expect throughout the year? Does that get better as we head into 2024? Or is this kind of a new normal?

只是關於增加利用率以增加容量的評論，這應該有助於提高生產力。你能否提供更多關於這與 2019 年相比如何的顏色，因為聽起來你在這裡仍然有很多保守主義以及我們全年可以期待什麼？隨著我們進入 2024 年，情況會變得更好嗎？或者這是一種新常態？

Yes. Thanks, Savi. Thanks for the question. So you will see utilization improving relative to 2022 levels, but we will still be operating at a lower utilization level than 2019. We're very cognizant of the overarching operational environment and the need to ensure that we are protecting the operation. And that includes both aircraft time but also investments we're making around pilots that we made in '22 that will continue into 2023. I will say, though, those are improving from a productivity standpoint. So we are peeling away some of those investments, but we will not return to 2019 levels from a utilization perspective or from a, for example, pilot resources or some of the buffering in the padding that we're putting in.

是的。謝謝，薩維。謝謝你的問題。因此，您會看到利用率相對於 2022 年水平有所提高，但我們的運營水平仍將低於 2019 年。我們非常了解總體運營環境以及確保我們保護運營的必要性。這既包括飛機時間，也包括我們在 22 年所做的圍繞飛行員的投資，這些投資將持續到 2023 年。不過，我要說的是，從生產力的角度來看，這些投資正在改善。因此，我們正在剝離其中一些投資，但我們不會從利用率的角度或例如試點資源或我們正在投入的填充中的一些緩衝回到 2019 年的水平。

Is that -- Joanna, like do you think as you get to the end of 2023, is that what you expect to be kind of the new normal? Or are you hoping that just things will ease as the next few years as well with ATC hiring and things like that?

那是——喬安娜，就像你認為的那樣，到 2023 年底，這就是你所期望的新常態嗎？或者您是否希望在未來幾年以及 ATC 招聘和類似的事情中事情會有所緩解？

Yes. We're not expecting things are going to ease. I think frankly, 2 weeks ago was proof positive of some of the challenges that we are experiencing overall in the airspace that we fly into. JetBlue has significantly higher amount of exposure in that -- in the Northeast corridor, where nearly 2/3 of the ATC delays are present. Absent a step change from the FAA in terms of technology or the ability to handle the ATC throughput, we're planning for a more conservative approach.

是的。我們並不期望事情會緩和。坦率地說，我認為 2 週前證明我們在飛入的空域中總體上遇到的一些挑戰是積極的。捷藍航空在東北走廊的曝光率要高得多，那裡有近 2/3 的 ATC 延誤。如果 FAA 在技術或處理 ATC 吞吐量的能力方面沒有一步變化，我們計劃採用更保守的方法。

We are very connected with the FAA. They've been great from a transparency perspective and a communication perspective. But at the end of the day, we need to ensure that our operation is protected. So you will see us continue things such as incrementally more reserves, a higher percentage of out and back flights that enables a cleaner cancel if we need to when we are in a disruptive situation, trying to base more flying out of crew bases. And then JetBlue is investing in some system improvements as well and have been for quite some time and then obviously, Spirit and diversifying our network.

我們與美國聯邦航空局關係密切。從透明度的角度和溝通的角度來看，他們一直很棒。但歸根結底，我們需要確保我們的操作受到保護。所以你會看到我們繼續做一些事情，比如逐漸增加儲備，更高比例的往返航班，以便在我們處於破壞性情況時需要時更乾淨地取消，試圖讓更多的航班離開機組人員基地。然後捷藍航空也在投資一些系統改進，並且已經進行了相當長的一段時間，然後很明顯，精神和我們的網絡多樣化。

So bottom line for the foreseeable future, you should expect that some of these costs that we laid in, in 2022 will carry through into '23 and beyond, although they are easing a bit as we return to a new normal, but it will not return to 2019 levels.

因此，在可預見的未來，你應該預料到我們在 2022 年投入的一些成本將延續到 23 年及以後，儘管隨著我們回到新常態，它們會有所緩解，但不會回到 2019 年的水平。

That's helpful. And if I might, just you talked about the TrueBlue revamp as well and it was kind of somewhat unique. I was kind of curious what's the goal around some of the changes that you made. And how do you expect that to kind of flow through kind of either purchasing behavior or travel behavior?

這很有幫助。如果可以的話，剛才你也談到了 TrueBlue 的改造，它有點獨特。我很好奇您所做的一些更改的目標是什麼。您如何期望它會通過某種購買行為或旅行行為產生流動？

Sure. One of the things that we've been focused on is how do we really reward and incentivize all different types of customers, not just the customers who fly as frequently and who are Mosaic but also the customers who are infrequent and try to engage them. So customers will have the ability to pick the perks that they like, and that includes customers who fly infrequently.

當然。我們一直關注的事情之一是我們如何真正獎勵和激勵所有不同類型的客戶，不僅是經常飛行和馬賽克的客戶，還有不經常飛行並試圖吸引他們的客戶。因此，客戶將能夠選擇他們喜歡的福利，其中包括不常乘坐飛機的客戶。

We also are providing additional layers of Mosaic levels, which we think will incentivize some of our most loyal customers. But at the end of the day, this is a holistic approach to our loyalty program by bringing benefits to customers who fly JetBlue. And then customers also use the co-brand card, which is such an incremental -- an important part of our loyalty program. If you think of loyalty overall in co-brand, it represented 10% of our total revenue. We continue to see that increase quarter-over-quarter. We're very excited with the positive momentum that we have from co-brand and TrueBlue. The new TrueBlue program will only amplify that momentum that we are seeing.

我們還提供了額外的馬賽克級別，我們認為這將激勵我們一些最忠誠的客戶。但歸根結底，這是通過為乘坐捷藍航空的客戶帶來好處來實現我們忠誠度計劃的整體方法。然後客戶還使用聯名卡，這是一種增量——我們忠誠度計劃的重要組成部分。如果你考慮聯合品牌的總體忠誠度，它占我們總收入的 10%。我們繼續看到環比增長。我們對聯合品牌和 TrueBlue 帶來的積極勢頭感到非常興奮。新的 TrueBlue 計劃只會放大我們看到的勢頭。

Next question comes from Jamie Baker at JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的傑米貝克。

So I was impressed that on United's call. Scott gave your operations a shout-out. Just wondering what's really driving the improvement in operational integrity. I know in American's case, paying pilots double time for Thanksgiving and Christmas obviously helped them. I don't recall JetBlue doing that. So was it really just the more cautious scheduling that Joanna mentioned in her prepared remarks? Or is there a labor component to the improvement in operations?

所以我對曼聯的電話印象深刻。斯科特對您的運營大聲疾呼。只是想知道是什麼真正推動了運營完整性的提高。我知道在美國航空公司的案例中，為飛行員支付雙倍的感恩節和聖誕節時間顯然對他們有幫助。我不記得捷藍航空這樣做過。那麼，這真的只是喬安娜在準備好的發言中提到的更謹慎的安排嗎？或者在運營改進中是否有勞動力因素？

Yes. Maybe to give you some visibility, Jamie, thanks for the question. There's a few things going on. I think, first, from a planning perspective, we are trying to plan more conservatively, recognizing that we are disproportionately impacted with delays, given the geography that we fly into. So that's kind of the first thing. And that includes everything from increased level of reserves. So when things start to run late, our crew doesn't time out and we can replace crew to protect the operation or, in some cases, double crew if you need to, to some of our one-a-day markets in the Caribbean.

是的。傑米，也許是為了給你一些知名度，謝謝你提出這個問題。有幾件事正在發生。我認為，首先，從規劃的角度來看，我們正在嘗試更保守地規劃，因為我們認識到，考慮到我們飛往的地理位置，我們受到延誤的影響尤為嚴重。所以這是第一件事。這包括增加儲備水平的一切。因此，當事情開始遲到時，我們的工作人員不會超時，我們可以更換工作人員以保護運營，或者在某些情況下，如果需要，可以加倍工作人員前往我們在加勒比地區的一些一日市場.

A higher percentage of out and back flights. That's a really important part of how we plan the schedule, particularly with the airspace we fly into so that if we do get into trouble, we can cleanly cancel a flight. And then as I mentioned to Savi, increasing the number of flying out of places where we have crew bases, which makes it easier to recover and get additional resources when we need to.

更高比例的往返航班。這是我們計劃時間表的一個非常重要的部分，特別是我們飛入的空域，這樣如果我們確實遇到麻煩，我們可以乾淨利落地取消航班。然後正如我對 Savi 提到的那樣，增加從我們有機組人員基地的地方起飛的次數，這使得我們在需要時更容易恢復和獲得額外資源。

The other piece that we've been on a multiyear journey around is modernizing the systems that we had in our operations center. I'll use an example. Last year, we introduced a new crew solver, which enables us to repair canceled flights and broken crew pairings more quickly, which ultimately means that we can recover faster and take advantage of the resources that we do have without having those resources time out or lose track of them.

我們多年來一直在努力的另一件事是對我們運營中心的系統進行現代化改造。我會用一個例子。去年，我們推出了一個新的機組求解器，它使我們能夠更快地修復取消的航班和損壞的機組配對，這最終意味著我們可以更快地恢復並利用我們現有的資源，而不會讓這些資源超時或丟失他們的踪跡。

So our focus has been on the Blue Sky days. We need to be great. And on the IROP days, irregular operation days where we have, frankly, more than most, we need to better manage how we plan for those days, how we execute day-of and then how we recover. Over the holidays, you saw a very clear focus on driving for completion factor but also recognizing that when you start seeing lengthy delays, you've got to take quick action and address those lengthy delays so that they don't bleed into the following day and the day after. So it's multipronged planning, day of operational execution and then ensuring that our crew members understand and know the plan and are prepared to execute to it.

所以我們的重點一直放在藍天時代。我們需要很棒。在 IROP 日，坦率地說，我們擁有的不規則運營日比大多數日子都多，我們需要更好地管理這些日子的計劃方式、執行日的方式以及恢復方式。在假期中，您看到了非常明確的重點是推動完成因素，但也認識到當您開始看到長時間的延誤時，您必須迅速採取行動並解決這些長時間的延誤，這樣它們就不會流到第二天和後一天。因此，這是多管齊下的計劃、運營執行日，然後確保我們的機組人員理解並了解計劃並準備好執行計劃。

And second quick question. American and United both clear that their 2023 forecasts do assume that revenue and GDP recouple to pre-pandemic levels. As a younger growthier airline, I've never really framed JetBlue against this particular measure, but I do wonder if it's something you look at internally when coming up with your forecast for the year.

第二個快速問題。美國航空和聯合航空都明確表示，他們對 2023 年的預測確實假設收入和 GDP 重新耦合到大流行前的水平。作為一家年輕的成長型航空公司，我從來沒有真正將 JetBlue 與這一特定措施相提並論，但我確實想知道這是否是您在提出今年的預測時內部會考慮的事情。

Jamie, this is Dave. I'll take that one. GDP is an important component in our revenue forecasting so we certainly use it. And for 2023, we have a pretty cautious forecast along with the consensus estimates back there, where we actually have a recession, a mild 1 for the consensus in the first half of the year and relatively slow growth throughout. But we have not -- we're still looking at a year-over-year basis. We have not pegged our revenue forecast to relinking what we saw pre COVID. And if we did, there'd be quite a -- or if we see that, there would be quite a bit of upside on revenue. So what you're seeing from JetBlue is just year-over-year GDP combined with the JetBlue-specific revenue initiatives, continued contribution from the NEA, ramp-up of loyalty and ramp-up of JetBlue Travel Products. Those alone get us to our -- the forecast and guidance.

傑米，這是戴夫。我會拿那個。 GDP 是我們收入預測的重要組成部分，因此我們當然會使用它。對於 2023 年，我們有一個非常謹慎的預測以及那裡的共識估計，我們實際上有經濟衰退，上半年的共識是溫和的 1，並且整個增長相對緩慢。但我們還沒有——我們仍在關注同比增長。我們沒有將我們的收入預測與重新鏈接我們在 COVID 之前看到的內容掛鉤。如果我們這樣做了，就會有相當多的——或者如果我們看到這一點，收入就會有相當大的增長。因此，您從 JetBlue 看到的只是同比 GDP 加上 JetBlue 特定的收入計劃、NEA 的持續貢獻、忠誠度的提升和 JetBlue Travel Products 的提升。只有這些才能讓我們得到我們的預測和指導。

Okay. That's very helpful. I'm glad I asked.

好的。這很有幫助。我很高興我問了。

Next question comes from Catherine O'Brien at Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Catherine O'Brien。

So slightly alterative what I wanted to ask based off your latest response to Jamie, Dave. So you just mentioned that part of what's driving that revenue outlook is improvement in NEA, JetBlue Travel, loyalty, et cetera. Can you just give us how many points of tailwind you think that might be into '23?

根據你對 Jamie Dave 的最新回复，我想問的問題略有不同。所以你剛才提到，推動收入前景的部分原因是 NEA、JetBlue Travel、忠誠度等方面的改善。您能告訴我們您認為 23 年可能有多少順風點嗎？

Thanks for the question. I don't have the exact, in front of me, points of tailwind. We're certainly talking low single digits so just to give you a general idea of it. The NEA has become measurably margin positive over the past half year, which is terrific. It was more of an investment in the first early days, but it was measurably positive back half of last year and we expect that to continue to accelerate. Probably less than 1 point but certainly measurable on that front.

謝謝你的問題。在我面前，我沒有確切的順風點。我們當然是在談論低個位數，所以只是為了給你一個大概的概念。在過去的半年裡，NEA 的利潤率已經變得可觀地為正，這非常棒。這在最初的幾天更像是一項投資，但去年下半年明顯是積極的，我們預計這種情況會繼續加速。可能不到 1 分，但在這方面肯定是可以衡量的。

And then the other piece I just talked about as well is the other big input into the GDP -- excuse me, into the revenue forecast is competitive capacity. And as we think about how competitive capacity ramps up throughout the country as we recover, keep in mind that over half of JetBlue's flying is in slotted airports. And that capacity all came back last year when they used a rule -- use or lose rules came back into effect. So in those slotted airports which are half of our flying, there's capacity limitation that might have a disproportionate impact on the competitive capacity we see this year versus the industry at large.

然後我剛才談到的另一件事是對 GDP 的另一個重要投入——對不起，對收入預測的是競爭力。當我們考慮隨著我們的恢復而在全國范圍內競爭容量如何增加時，請記住，捷藍航空超過一半的飛行是在有空隙的機場進行的。去年，當他們使用規則時，這種能力全部恢復了——使用或丟失規則重新生效。因此，在占我們飛行一半的機場中，容量限制可能會對我們今年看到的與整個行業的競爭能力產生不成比例的影響。

That's great. And maybe just a related follow-up on the Northeast Alliance. So I might be oversimplifying this, but American just called out on their call, they don't expect any further recovery from contractual corporate travel over this year. And to my understanding, Northeast Alliance is mainly aimed at better serving corporate clients out of Boston and New York. Can you just walk us through where the upside from the Alliance comes to JetBlue if contractual corporate revenue is expected to stay at current levels?

那太棒了。也許只是東北聯盟的相關後續行動。因此，我可能過於簡單化了這一點，但美國航空剛剛呼籲他們的電話，他們預計今年合同公司旅行不會進一步復甦。據我了解，東北聯盟主要是為了更好地服務波士頓和紐約以外的企業客戶。如果合同公司收入預計將保持在當前水平，您能否向我們介紹一下聯盟對捷藍航空的好處？

Sure. Thanks, Catie. And overall, we have a relatively small part of our total revenue coming out of contracted corporate shares, so this is a smaller pool for us than the industry at large. We are seeing measurably in our internal data as well as in the public data that's out there that JetBlue is taking share from -- in the Northeast as a benefit of this. So we're seeing it in our new accounts. We're seeing a higher share from our existing accounts, and it's a bit visible in the public data, which is, of course, delayed versus what we have proprietarily. So as we continue to see the Northeast ramp back up, we expect to see a bigger pie in general and then with JetBlue's added share, that will certainly help us grow in these geographies a bit more than the industry overall.

當然。謝謝，凱蒂。總的來說，我們的總收入中只有一小部分來自合同公司股份，所以這對我們來說比整個行業要小。我們在我們的內部數據和公共數據中看到了可衡量的，捷藍航空正在從中獲取份額——在東北部，這是一個好處。所以我們在我們的新賬戶中看到了它。我們從現有賬戶中看到了更高的份額，並且在公共數據中有點明顯，當然，與我們專有的數據相比，這有所延遲。因此，隨著我們繼續看到東北地區的回升，我們預計總體上會看到更大的蛋糕，然後隨著捷藍航空的份額增加，這肯定會幫助我們在這些地區的增長超過整個行業。

I'll also add from JetBlue's perspective, this isn't just about growing business. It's also about growing leisure for JetBlue. If you look at the route announcement we've made, we are collectively growing business but also leisure and VFR routes. So in all scenarios, we would be better off with the NEA than without the NEA. And there's flexibility within that. So you've seen a number of new route announcements out of LaGuardia that are beginning later this spring. That's reflecting a pivot to some more leisure destinations. So at the end of the day, this is for JetBlue and think about our network footprint in JFK specifically and, to a lesser degree, in LaGuardia, this is about both business but also very importantly, leisure.

我還要從 JetBlue 的角度補充，這不僅僅是關於業務增長。這也與 JetBlue 的休閒活動有關。如果您查看我們發布的航線公告，我們將共同發展業務，同時也在拓展休閒和 VFR 航線。所以在所有情況下，有 NEA 比沒有 NEA 更好。這裡面有靈活性。所以你已經看到了今年春天晚些時候從拉瓜迪亞開始的許多新路線公告。這反映了轉向更多休閒目的地的趨勢。因此，歸根結底，這是針對 JetBlue 的，具體考慮一下我們在 JFK 的網絡足跡，以及在較小程度上在 LaGuardia 的網絡足跡，這既關乎商務，也關乎休閒。

Next question comes from Dan McKenzie at Seaport Global.

下一個問題來自 Seaport Global 的 Dan McKenzie。

So a couple of questions here. The last comment in the script regarding earnings momentum later this year, leading to, I think you said, normalized earnings power next year or something to that extent. Are you using 2019 as a proxy for what normalized margins could look like? And I guess the reason I ask is, they range from basically 10% to 20% in the last cycle. So I'm just wondering if 2019 is a fair proxy or perhaps something a little better than that.

所以這裡有幾個問題。腳本中關於今年晚些時候盈利勢頭的最後評論，導致，我想你說過，明年盈利能力正常化或某種程度上。您是否使用 2019 年作為標準化利潤率的代表？我想我問的原因是，在上一個週期中，它們的範圍基本上是 10% 到 20%。所以我只是想知道 2019 年是否是一個公平的代表，或者可能比這更好一些。

Dan, thanks for the question. So I was referencing, as we continue to build momentum throughout 2023 and the back half of this year, our intent is to build our margins close, very close to 2019 levels. So that's the first benchmark, right, coming out of COVID is achieving a margin level equivalent to pre COVID, with the intent beyond 2023 continuing to grow margins over the long term. So we have a lot of conviction in our top line forecast and the JetBlue-specific revenue initiatives as well as delivering on the structural cost to get back up to those 2019 margin levels in the back half of this year.

丹，謝謝你的提問。所以我指的是，隨著我們在整個 2023 年和今年下半年繼續建立勢頭，我們的目的是使我們的利潤率接近，非常接近 2019 年的水平。所以這是第一個基準，正確的，從 COVID 出來的是達到與 COVID 之前相當的利潤率水平，其目的是在 2023 年以後繼續長期增長利潤率。因此，我們對我們的收入預測和 JetBlue 特定的收入計劃以及交付結構性成本以在今年下半年恢復到 2019 年的利潤率水平充滿信心。

Okay. And then I guess following up on Jamie's question, the embedded in the outlook this year is continued contributions from the NEA. I know you expect to win the case and based on how it played out in court, my sense is JetBlue will probably win as well. But if there is an adverse decision, what's built into the full year capacity and revenue guide? And should we expect it to change based on a potential adverse decision?

好的。然後我想在 Jamie 的問題之後，今年展望中嵌入的是 NEA 的持續貢獻。我知道您希望贏得此案，並且根據法庭上的結果，我的感覺是捷藍航空也可能會獲勝。但是，如果有一個不利的決定，那麼全年產能和收入指南中包含了什麼？我們是否應該期望它會根據潛在的不利決定而改變？

Dan, it's Robin. I'll take that. Look, we felt good about the case that we put forward. I don't really want to speculate on the downside because one, we felt we put a very case forward -- a good case forward. I think everyone in Boston and New York is enjoying more JetBlue flying as a result of the NEA. They've seen more routes.

丹，是羅賓。我會接受的。看，我們對我們提出的案例感覺很好。我真的不想推測不利因素，因為我們覺得我們提出了一個非常好的案例——一個很好的案例。我認為波士頓和紐約的每個人都因為 NEA 而享受更多的捷藍航空飛行。他們看到了更多的路線。

And back to the question earlier, it's largely leisure because they were all -- there were some leisure markets out of New York that we never had the ability to serve before without taking away from something else, and we can do that now. So, so many people have enjoyed the lower fares and the more choice. So it's hard to foresee a negative outcome. It is possible, clearly. It's going to be down to the judge and he's going to make a decision.

回到之前的問題，這主要是休閒，因為它們都是——紐約以外的一些休閒市場，我們以前從來沒有能力在不帶走其他東西的情況下提供服務，而我們現在可以做到。所以，很多人都享受到了更低的票價和更多的選擇。因此很難預見負面結果。很明顯，這是可能的。這將取決於法官，他將做出決定。

And I think that if that comes to pass, we'll look at it. There's a number of options and we'll deal with it. But we're focused right now on hoping for a positive outcome and continuing the momentum behind the NEA because it will -- so much more competition and so much more benefits to everyone in the New York and Boston catchment areas.

我認為，如果這成為現實，我們會考慮的。有很多選擇，我們會處理它。但我們現在的重點是希望取得積極的成果並繼續推動 NEA 背後的勢頭，因為它將 - 紐約和波士頓集水區的每個人都會有更多的競爭和更多的利益。

Next question comes from Duane Pfennigwerth at Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

I appreciate the questions. Just on fuel, which I guess was marked on the 13th of January, how do you calculate the jet crack spread? And if you calculated that today or yesterday or something before you were in the crush of earnings, where would you estimate that to be in a more recent time frame? And is there any hedge benefit embedded in the fuel guidance?

我很欣賞這些問題。就燃料而言，我猜它是在 1 月 13 日標記的，你如何計算射流裂紋擴散？而且，如果您在今天或昨天或在您陷入盈利困境之前計算出這一點，您會估計在最近的時間範圍內是什麼時候？燃料指南中是否包含任何對沖收益？

So you're correct. We marked fuel on January 13 and this is consistent the same day that we historically marked fuel for our Q4 earnings call. If we were to mark as of this past Friday on the 20th, we would have about a $0.15 higher impact in the first quarter. So that's just about over 1 point of margin in the first quarter. On a full year basis, we're obviously still within the upper end of our range, even marking to last Friday, the 20th.

所以你是對的。我們在 1 月 13 日標記燃料，這與我們歷史上為我們的第四季度財報電話標記燃料的同一天是一致的。如果我們以上週五 20 日為準，第一季度的影響將增加約 0.15 美元。所以第一季度的利潤率大約超過 1 個百分點。從全年來看，我們顯然仍處於區間的上限，甚至是上週五，也就是 20 日。

How we mark fuel? So the prompt 12 weeks are off of the forward curve. And then beyond those 12 weeks, we actually use Bloomberg consensus. And the latter part of your question, there is a small hedge benefit vetted into the first quarter due to the 9% hedges that we have in place.

我們如何標記燃料？所以提示 12 週不在遠期曲線上。然後在這 12 週之後，我們實際上使用了彭博共識。在你的問題的後半部分，由於我們已經實施了 9% 的對沖，第一季度審查了一個小的對沖收益。

Great. And then maybe 1 for Robin. As you work down the path of the Spirit merger and learn more along the way, both about the process and about Spirit, any change in thinking about how complex this is going to be? I guess a different way to ask it, anything you learned that you wish you knew at the beginning of the process?

偉大的。然後可能 1 給羅賓。當您沿著 Spirit 合併的道路前進並在此過程中了解更多有關過程和 Spirit 的信息時，您對這將有多複雜的想法有何改變？我想用不同的方式來問它，你希望在過程開始時知道的任何知識？

Thanks, Duane. No, I mean, I think as you know, these are incredibly complicated affairs. I think the good news is that there were a lot who have gone before us. And we're always able to -- when you're following somebody else, you're always able to learn from what worked and what didn't work. We already have our integrated management team in place. There's a number of work streams going on. We have a team appointed. And I couldn't be more delighted with some of the work that's already underway to prepare for this.

謝謝，杜安。不，我的意思是，我認為如你所知，這些都是非常複雜的事情。我認為好消息是，有很多人先於我們而去。而且我們始終能夠——當您關注其他人時，您始終能夠從有效的方法和無效的方法中學習。我們已經擁有綜合管理團隊。有許多工作流正在進行中。我們指定了一個團隊。我對已經在為此做準備的一些工作感到非常高興。

We are working on an assumption of regulatory close in 2024. We also have to go through a single operating certificate process. In recent mergers, that's been a 12- to 18-month time line after close, but you can start preparing for it now, which we have started to do. And we've got a pretty good understanding of the sequencing of decisions and what decisions we need to take when to make this process as efficient as we can. So overall, it's early. There's a lot of wood to chop, but I couldn't be more pleased with the start that we've made. And the partnership between the JetBlue and Spirit teams has just been excellent.

我們正在假設 2024 年監管關閉。我們還必須通過單一的運營證書流程。在最近的合併中，交易完成後有 12 到 18 個月的時間線，但你現在就可以開始準備了，我們已經開始這樣做了。我們已經很好地理解了決策的順序以及我們需要在什麼時候做出什麼決策才能使這個過程盡可能高效。總的來說，現在還早。有很多木頭要砍，但我對我們所做的開始感到非常高興。 JetBlue 和 Spirit 團隊之間的合作非常出色。

Next question comes from Conor Cunningham at Melius Research.

下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Conor Cunningham。

Just on Duane's question on fuel. I'm just curious, 40% of your fuel, I think, has historically been sourced in New York, and that market's been particularly volatile recently. And I think there may be some more volatility coming up. There's a refinery going offline. I'm just curious if you've thought about how you may source fuel differently in the future. Or is that -- is it just a function of where you're flying out of mostly in San.

就杜安關於燃料的問題。我只是好奇，我認為你們 40% 的燃料歷來都是在紐約採購的，而且該市場最近特別動盪。而且我認為可能會出現更多的波動。有一家煉油廠停產。我只是想知道您是否考慮過將來如何以不同的方式獲取燃料。或者是——它只是你從哪裡飛出的主要在 San 的函數。

Yes. Thanks for the question, Conor. You're extremely correct in terms of the volatility has been pretty significant. Historically, New York Harbor has ranged anywhere from $0.07 to $0.08. And just here last year, the average was about $0.48, and in January, we're sitting at about $0.53. So we actually go through an annual tender process, whereby which we determine which markets and which lines and indexes to purchase fuel on. So there is a potential opportunity for us to shift, if it's cost effective, some of our purchasing off of New York Harbor, just given that it continues to be extremely volatile. So we do go through an annual process and we'll evaluate that midyear.

是的。謝謝你的問題，康納。就波動性而言，您是非常正確的。從歷史上看，紐約港的價格從 0.07 美元到 0.08 美元不等。就在去年，平均價格約為 0.48 美元，而在 1 月份，我們的價格約為 0.53 美元。因此，我們實際上經歷了年度招標過程，由此我們確定在哪些市場以及哪些線路和指數上購買燃料。因此，如果它具有成本效益，我們有可能將我們的一些採購轉移到紐約港，因為它仍然非常不穩定。所以我們確實經歷了一個年度過程，我們將在年中進行評估。

Okay. Hopefully, it didn't add too much work for Joe. Just on the cost cadence throughout the year. When we think about -- I'm just trying to figure out if there's any lumpiness in maybe your maintenance schedules or anything like that. Like does it -- is it pretty smooth throughout the year? And then is there an offset from the structural cost program that kind of matches up with a lot of that, so it's, again, like a smooth CASM ex profile?

好的。希望這不會給 Joe 增加太多工作量。就在全年的成本節奏上。當我們考慮時——我只是想弄清楚您的維護計劃或類似的事情是否有任何不連貫之處。就像它一樣 - 全年都很順利嗎？然後，結構成本計劃是否有抵消，與其中的大部分相匹配，所以它再次像一個平滑的 CASM ex 配置文件？

And then just thinking about the exit rate there. Like why -- I mean, assuming that -- not taking into account your pilot deal, but just like assuming how that would trend throughout the year as you think about it into the fourth quarter. I realize there's a lot there, but if you could just provide some context on it.

然後只是考慮那裡的退出率。就像為什麼——我的意思是，假設——不考慮你的試點交易，但就像假設你在第四季度考慮它時全年的趨勢一樣。我知道那裡有很多內容，但如果你能提供一些相關背景的話。

I think those were about 5 different questions, Conor. In regards to CASM ex in 2023, 1H versus 2H, there's about a 1 point step-up in the second half of the year. And that's driven by 2 factors: number one, we do have a pilot CBA pay rate step-up in the fourth quarter. And we also have some lumpiness in regards to the timing of our maintenance spend, which is typical, right? So those are 2 items that are the main drivers in the 1 point increase between 1H and 2H.

Conor，我想那是大約 5 個不同的問題。關於 2023 年的 CASM ex，1H 與 2H，下半年大約有 1 個百分點的提升。這是由兩個因素驅動的：第一，我們確實在第四季度進行了 CBA 薪酬率試點。而且我們在維護支出的時間安排方面也有一些不一致，這很典型，對吧？因此，這 2 個項目是 1H 和 2H 之間增加 1 點的主要驅動因素。

The structural cost program builds pretty consistently throughout the year. So by the end of the year, our intent is to achieve the $70 million in run rate savings. And there's really not much lumpiness to that. Like I said, it's pretty consistent between 1H and 2H.

結構成本計劃全年都在穩定地建立。因此，到今年年底，我們的目標是實現 7000 萬美元的運行率節省。並且真的沒有太多的塊狀。就像我說的，它在 1H 和 2H 之間非常一致。

I guess just to give -- because I think all the questions on cost are very -- have been very well put. And I know Joanna touched on this earlier and it's come up with other airlines. But just to kind of help people understand the sort of the investment going into some of the benefits around reducing operational risk.

我想只是給出 - 因為我認為所有關於成本的問題都非常 - 已經非常好。我知道 Joanna 早些時候談到了這一點，其他航空公司也提出了這個問題。但只是為了幫助人們了解在降低運營風險方面的一些好處的投資類型。

So Joanna talked about the ability to have more pilot reserves and starting up pilot. So approximately every 5% of additional pilots that you're hiring to fly the same schedule you had before, that's going to be just over 1 point of CASM in the year. Every time you take utilization down 2 points what you had before, that's about 1 point of CASM in terms of the impact. So these investments are quite meaningful, and that's why you're seeing them in the underlying CASM.

所以喬安娜談到了擁有更多飛行員儲備和啟動飛行員的能力。因此，大約每 5% 的額外飛行員你僱用來執行與以前相同的時間表，那一年中的 CASM 將超過 1 個點。每次您將利用率比以前降低 2 點，就影響而言，這大約是 CASM 的 1 點。所以這些投資非常有意義，這就是為什麼你在基礎 CASM 中看到它們。

And we do have optionality over time to dial some of those back, and Joanna alluded to some of that being dialed back this year. But I'm not sure that we can run certainly this airline like we did in 2019. And so we're going to have to be very measured and very thoughtful and, frankly, find other opportunities in the cost structure to allow us continuing to make these investments. We have seen the benefit. Now you do see other benefits with these investments. So if you have higher completion factor, you have more on-time performance, that's going to help your operating cost. You'll protect more revenue because you'll be able -- have less in vouchers or refunds or travel credit.

隨著時間的推移，我們確實可以選擇回撥其中的一些內容，Joanna 提到今年將回撥其中的一些內容。但我不確定我們能否像 2019 年那樣經營這家航空公司。因此，我們必須非常謹慎和深思熟慮，坦率地說，在成本結構中找到其他機會，讓我們能夠繼續進行這些投資。我們已經看到了好處。現在您確實看到了這些投資的其他好處。所以如果你有更高的完成係數，你有更多的準時性能，這將有助於你的運營成本。您將保護更多的收入，因為您將能夠減少代金券、退款或旅行積分。

So the benefits are there but it's going to, I think, mean a different revenue and cost profile in terms of where you spend, how you spend and where you see the revenue benefit to perhaps what we used to pre-2019. So there are opportunities over time to bring those costs back down, but we're going to have to tread into it very carefully to make sure that we're not sort of going back to some of the challenges that we saw and others saw earlier in 2022.

所以好處是存在的，但我認為，這意味著在支出地點、支出方式以及收入收益方面可能與 2019 年前的情況不同。因此，隨著時間的推移，有機會降低這些成本，但我們將不得不非常謹慎地對待它，以確保我們不會回到我們和其他人之前看到的一些挑戰2022年。

Next question comes from Helane Becker at Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Helane Becker。

Robin, on the Spirit, I get a lot of questions from arbs who don't understand why you are planning for a first quarter or first half '24 close when it seems perfectly obvious to me that it would be in the second half -- first half of next year versus second half of this year. So maybe you could go through some of the hurdles that you have to go through before you can get the approval.

羅賓，關於 Spirit，我從套利者那裡得到了很多問題，他們不明白為什麼你計劃在 24 年第一季度或上半年結束，而在我看來很明顯會在下半年——明年上半年對比今年下半年。因此，也許您可以克服一些在獲得批准之前必須克服的障礙。

Well, yes, so I mean, there's really 2 outcomes. We're able to reach an agreement with the Department of Justice. And if we do that, it's possible that could happen sooner, but the time line is down to the Department of Justice, and we certainly want to be respectful of that. The second scenario is that we don't get an agreement with the Department of Justice and they decide to sue us, and we go to court as we did in the NEA. And that process can take several months to go through. And so I think for both of those reasons, an assumption on closing this transaction in the first part of 2024 is the right 1 to make.

嗯，是的，所以我的意思是，實際上有兩種結果。我們能夠與司法部達成協議。如果我們這樣做，可能會更早發生，但時間線取決於司法部，我們當然希望尊重這一點。第二種情況是我們沒有與司法部達成協議，他們決定起訴我們，然後我們像在 NEA 那樣上法庭。這個過程可能需要幾個月的時間才能完成。因此，我認為出於這兩個原因，在 2024 年上半年完成這筆交易的假設是正確的。

Yes. That makes sense. And then as we think about the balance sheet, this one's probably for Ursula, is there an opportunity to accelerate debt paydown or is that not something you would consider?

是的。這就說得通了。然後當我們考慮資產負債表時，這個可能是厄休拉的，是否有機會加速償還債務，或者這不是你會考慮的事情？

We have a significant CapEx commitment this year. We have $1.3 billion. We also have approximately $130 million associated with the Spirit prepayment. And then in addition to that, we have regular scheduled debt payments. So it's actually a pretty meaningful cash outflow this year. And given that, we're pivoting our strategy to go from purchasing aircraft with cash to financing. So the intent is to fund the business but also build a healthy cushion to help support the purchase and the integration of Spirit as well.

我們今年有一項重要的資本支出承諾。我們有 13 億美元。我們還有大約 1.3 億美元與 Spirit 預付款相關。除此之外，我們還有定期的債務償還。因此，這實際上是今年相當有意義的現金流出。鑑於此，我們正在調整我們的戰略，從用現金購買飛機轉向融資。因此，目的是為業務提供資金，同時也建立一個健康的緩衝，以幫助支持 Spirit 的購買和整合。

So at this point in time, we're not looking at potential debt paydowns. I would also note, our weighted average cost of debt is extremely competitive. And given where rates are today, we're actually probably in a more beneficial place than paying down low-cost debt. So the answer to your question is no, we're going to fund the business this year and prepare for the integration.

所以在這個時候，我們不考慮潛在的債務償還。我還要指出，我們的加權平均債務成本極具競爭力。考慮到今天的利率，我們實際上可能比償還低成本債務更有利。所以你的問題的答案是否定的，我們將在今年為這項業務提供資金並為整合做準備。

And the last question comes from Chris Stathoulopoulos at Susquehanna International Group.

最後一個問題來自 Susquehanna International Group 的 Chris Stathoulopoulos。

So Joanna or Ursula, on the capacity guide for 2023, could you break out the moving pieces there, so departure, stage and gauge? I know you spoke about utilization driving a big piece of that. And then it also sounds like, again, I think you said this on the -- or you suggested this on your last call but clearly calling it out this time is that, it sounds like the ASM guide for this year is essentially derisked as it relates to delays in aircraft. So am I interpreting that correctly?

那麼 Joanna 或 Ursula，在 2023 年的容量指南中，你能打破那裡的移動部分，所以出發、階段和儀表？我知道你談到了利用率推動了其中的很大一部分。然後這聽起來又像是，我想你在上次電話會議上說過這個——或者你在上次電話會議上提出了這個建議，但這次明確指出的是，聽起來今年的 ASM 指南基本上被取消了風險，因為它與飛機延誤有關。那麼我的解釋正確嗎？

Sure, so maybe I'll start. So the full year guide is 5.5% to 8.5% so midpoint of 7%. The majority of this, as I noted in my script, is driven by utilization. So utilization is going to be up compared to 2022 as well as 2019. As Joanna highlighted, utilization will not yet get back to 2019 levels, given we are planning conservatively.

當然，也許我會開始。所以全年指導是 5.5% 到 8.5%，中間點是 7%。正如我在腳本中指出的那樣，其中大部分是由利用率驅動的。因此，與 2022 年和 2019 年相比，利用率將會上升。正如 Joanna 強調的那樣，考慮到我們正在保守地規劃，利用率還不會回到 2019 年的水平。

In relation to the aircraft deliveries that we're taking this year, the planning assumption is 19. I'll note, they're very back weighted, so we take 5 in the first half of this year and then the remainder in the second half of this year. So my commentary in the script is even if some of those deliveries in the back half of this year end up slipping, we don't view our full year capacity guidance at any risk. So that's generally how to think about the full year guide.

關於我們今年交付的飛機，計劃假設是 19 架。我會注意到，它們的權重非常大，所以我們在今年上半年交付 5 架，然後在下半年交付剩餘的飛機今年的一半。因此，我在劇本中的評論是，即使今年下半年的一些交付量最終下滑，我們也不認為我們的全年產能指導有任何風險。因此，這通常是考慮全年指南的方式。

In terms of gauge and stage, stage is coming down slightly on a full year basis year-over-year, and gauge is going up slightly on a year-over-year basis. So all in all, we feel extremely confident in the full year guide.

從指標和階段看，階段同比小幅下降，指標同比小幅上升。因此，總而言之，我們對全年指南充滿信心。

Okay. And then on my follow-up, again, Ursula or Joanna. So the planning more conservatively with respect to the scheduling, and you talked about flying out of points there, emphasizing where their crew base is and to drive operational stability integrity. So is this part of what the transition plan, if you will, for this year? Or is this the new go-forward operating plan? And if so, and I think Robin was implying to this in the comment from 2 questions ago, contemplated with how you're thinking about your long-term RASM and CASM ex assumptions?

好的。然後在我的後續行動中，又是厄休拉或喬安娜。因此，計劃在日程安排方面更加保守，你談到了飛出那裡的點，強調他們的機組人員基地在哪裡，並推動運營穩定性的完整性。如果您願意的話，這是今年過渡計劃的一部分嗎？或者這是新的前進運營計劃？如果是這樣，我認為羅賓在 2 個問題之前的評論中暗示了這一點，考慮過你如何考慮你的長期 RASM 和 CASM ex 假設？

Yes, so I'll take it and then I'll flip it to Dave on the RASM assumption. So this is contemplated in our longer-term planning view, unless there is a step change in capabilities that we see within the airspace that we fly. 2/3 of the delays in the U.S. -- in the national aerospace in the U.S. are largely in JetBlue's network. And so these planning assumptions contemplate that it stays relatively the same with like modest improvements but nothing substantial because we just don't see a step change in capabilities coming in the next few years. Dave, on the RASM?

是的，所以我會接受它，然後根據 RASM 假設將它轉交給 Dave。因此，在我們的長期規劃視圖中考慮到了這一點，除非我們在飛行的空域內看到的能力發生了階躍變化。美國 2/3 的延誤——美國國家航空航天的延誤主要發生在捷藍航空的網絡中。因此，這些規劃假設考慮到它會保持相對不變，並進行適度的改進，但沒有實質性的改進，因為我們只是看不到未來幾年能力會發生階躍變化。戴夫，關於 RASM？

Sure. And just to go a bit deeper, Chris, I mean, some of the things we're doing around scheduling more out of crew bases has just been swapping of aircraft type. For example, we've largely moved our E190 flying out of Florida as we soon will no longer have E190 crew bases there, whereas we used to fly a lot from non-base locations in Florida before then. So that's 1 example.

當然。更深入一點，克里斯，我的意思是，我們圍繞從機組人員基地安排更多事情所做的一些事情只是交換飛機類型。例如，我們已經將大部分 E190 飛機從佛羅里達州移出，因為我們很快將不再在那裡擁有 E190 機組人員基地，而在此之前我們經常從佛羅里達州的非基地地點起飛。這就是 1 個例子。

Also working very closely across departments to plan further ahead, years ahead. So when we think about big infrastructure that we'll need, we're planning it earlier with both the revenue in mind as well as the operating team. So I think it's just good additional robustness we're doing. I don't expect material RASM impact from any of this, but I do expect better sort of cost and just general efficiency as we have more robust cross-functional planning even further ahead than today.

跨部門也非常密切地合作，以在未來數年內進一步規劃。因此，當我們考慮我們需要的大型基礎設施時，我們會更早地計劃它，同時考慮到收入和運營團隊。所以我認為我們正在做的只是很好的額外穩健性。我不希望這對 RASM 產生任何實質性影響，但我確實希望成本和總體效率更好，因為我們擁有比今天更先進的更強大的跨職能規劃。

And I think if you look at the holiday period, that very much played out in terms of the strong completion factor performance we had and our ability to deliver on the revenue plan that we had. And so to Robin's point, this is the new normal for the foreseeable future, and we're going to plan this way. And there are benefits that we will see play out in completing the schedule and not incurring many of the costs that you would otherwise incur if you're running late and/or having to cancel flights and the revenue cost.

而且我認為，如果你看看假期，就我們擁有的強勁完成因素表現以及我們實現收入計劃的能力而言，這非常重要。因此，就羅賓而言，這是可預見的未來的新常態，我們將以這種方式進行規劃。我們將看到在完成時間表方面發揮作用的好處，並且不會產生您在遲到和/或不得不取消航班時可能產生的許多成本和收入成本。

I mean, I'll give you a real life example. Let's talk about last night. So we had weather come into the Northeast. We were in ground delay programs and ground stops at all the New York airports. The ground delay program at JFK reached over 3.5 hours, which means every domestic flight coming into JFK last night had an average of 3.5 hours of delay. There were 749 cancellations in and out of the U.S. yesterday. JetBlue was 3 of those. So our ability to kind of complete that schedule because we have planned more resiliently executed weather in the night clearly drives the benefit of having not to refund those tickets, not at the expense of rebooking those customers.

我的意思是，我會給你一個真實的例子。說說昨晚吧。所以我們有天氣進入東北部。我們參與了紐約所有機場的地面延誤計劃和地面停留。肯尼迪國際機場的地面延誤程序達到了 3.5 多個小時，這意味著昨晚進入肯尼迪國際機場的每架國內航班平均延誤了 3.5 小時。昨天有 749 次進出美國的取消。捷藍航空是其中的 3 家。因此，我們完成該時間表的能力是因為我們計劃在夜間更具彈性地執行天氣，這顯然帶來了不必退還這些機票的好處，而不是以重新預訂這些客戶為代價。

And I think the operational -- a more conservative operational philosophy change is just not how we have to think about operational costs, but over time, will drive some benefit on the commercial side as well.

而且我認為運營 - 更保守的運營理念變化不僅僅是我們必須考慮運營成本的方式，但隨著時間的推移，也會在商業方面帶來一些好處。

Great. Well, thanks, everyone. That concludes our fourth quarter 2022 conference call. Thanks for joining us. Have a great day.

偉大的。嗯，謝謝大家。我們的 2022 年第四季度電話會議到此結束。感謝您加入我們。祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating, and we ask that you please disconnect your lines.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，請您斷開線路。