JetBlue Airways Corp (JBLU) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning. My name is Cody, and I would like to welcome everyone to the JetBlue Airways Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to JetBlue's Director of Investor Relations, Joe Caiado. Please go ahead, sir.

    早上好。我的名字是科迪,我想歡迎大家參加捷藍航空 2022 年第二季度收益電話會議。提醒一下,今天的電話正在錄音中。 (操作員說明)我現在想將電話轉給 JetBlue 的投資者關係總監 Joe Caiado。請繼續,先生。

  • Jose Caiado

    Jose Caiado

  • Thanks, Cody. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us for our second quarter 2022 earnings call. This morning, we issued our earnings release and a presentation that we will reference during this call. All of those documents are available on our website at investor.jetblue.com and have been filed with the SEC.

    謝謝,科迪。大家早上好,感謝您加入我們的 2022 年第二季度財報電話會議。今天早上,我們發布了財報和演示文稿,我們將在本次電話會議中參考。所有這些文件都可以在我們的網站investor.jetblue.com 上找到,並已提交給美國證券交易委員會。

  • In New York to discuss our results are Robin Hayes, our Chief Executive Officer; Joanna Geraghty, our President and Chief Operating Officer; Ursula Hurley, our Chief Financial Officer. And also joining us for Q&A are Dave Clark, Head of Revenue and Planning; and Andres Barry, President of JetBlue Travel Products.

    在紐約討論我們的結果的是我們的首席執行官 Robin Hayes; Joanna Geraghty,我們的總裁兼首席運營官; Ursula Hurley,我們的首席財務官。與我們一起進行問答的還有收入和規劃主管 Dave Clark;和 JetBlue Travel Products 總裁 Andres Barry。

  • This morning's call includes forward-looking statements about future events. All such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially.

    今天上午的電話會議包括關於未來事件的前瞻性陳述。所有此類前瞻性陳述都存在一定的風險和不確定性,實際結果可能存在重大差異。

  • Please refer to our most recent earnings release and our most recent Form 10-Q or 10-K for a more detailed discussion of the factors that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking statements, including, among others, the COVID-19 pandemic, fuel availability and pricing, the outcome of the lawsuit filed by the DOJ related to our Northeast Alliance, the occurrence of any circumstances that could give rise to the right of JetBlue or Spirit Airlines or both to terminate the merger agreement, failure to obtain applicable regulatory or Spirit stockholder approval in a timely manner or otherwise and the potential financial consequences thereof, failure to satisfy other closing conditions or failure of the parties to consummate the proposed transaction and the possibility that JetBlue may be unable to achieve expected synergies and operating efficiencies within the expected time frames or at all and to successfully integrate Spirit's operations with those of JetBlue.

    請參閱我們最近的收益發布和我們最近的 10-Q 或 10-K 表格,以更詳細地討論可能導致實際結果與我們的前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異的因素,包括:其他、COVID-19 大流行、燃料供應和定價、美國司法部提起的與我們的東北聯盟有關的訴訟結果、發生任何可能導致捷藍航空或精神航空或兩者都有權終止合併協議、未能及時或以其他方式獲得適用的監管或 Spirit 股東批准及其潛在的財務後果、未能滿足其他交割條件或雙方未能完成擬議交易以及 JetBlue 可能無法在預期的時間範圍內或完全實現預期的協同效應和運營效率,並成功整合 Spirit 的運營與 JetBlue 的離子。

  • The statements made during this call are made only as of the date of this call, and we undertake no obligation to update the information. Investors should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements.

    本次電話會議期間所做的聲明僅在本次電話會議之日作出,我們不承擔更新信息的義務。投資者不應過分依賴這些前瞻性陳述。

  • Also during the course of our call, we may discuss several non-GAAP financial measures. For a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to GAAP measures, please refer to the tables at the end of our earnings release, a copy of which is available on our website.

    同樣在我們的電話會議期間,我們可能會討論一些非公認會計原則的財務措施。有關這些非公認會計原則措施與公認會計原則措施的對賬,請參閱我們收益發布末尾的表格,我們的網站上提供了該表格的副本。

  • And now, I would like to turn the call over to Robin Hayes, JetBlue's CEO.

    現在,我想把電話轉給捷藍航空的首席執行官 Robin Hayes。

  • Robin N. Hayes - CEO & Director

    Robin N. Hayes - CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Joe. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. I would like to start with my thanks to our more than 24,000 crew members for their tremendous work and dedication to delivering the award-winning JetBlue Experience to our customers as we marked some significant milestones in our recovery this summer. This morning, we reported a record-breaking absolute revenue result for the second quarter, and we're on pace to top it again here in the third quarter and drive our first quarterly profit since the start of the pandemic.

    謝謝,喬。大家早上好,感謝您今天加入我們。首先,我要感謝我們的 24,000 多名機組人員所做的巨大工作和為我們的客戶提供屢獲殊榮的捷藍航空體驗的奉獻精神,因為我們在今年夏天的恢復過程中取得了一些重要的里程碑。今天早上,我們報告了第二季度創紀錄的絕對收入結果,我們有望在第三季度再次領先,並推動我們自大流行開始以來的第一個季度利潤。

  • Turning to Slide 5. Before we dig into our financial results and outlook, I would like to take a moment to discuss our recently announced agreement to acquire Spirit. I'm very pleased we found the path forward with Spirit, and we can't wait to welcome their incredible 10,000 team members to JetBlue as we create a true national low-fare, high-quality challenger to the dominant Big Four airlines.

    轉到幻燈片 5。在我們深入研究我們的財務業績和前景之前,我想花點時間討論一下我們最近宣布的收購 Spirit 的協議。我很高興我們與 Spirit 一起找到了前進的道路,我們迫不及待地歡迎他們令人難以置信的 10,000 名團隊成員加入捷藍航空,因為我們創建了一個真正的全國性低票價、高質量的挑戰者,以對占主導地位的四大航空公司進行挑戰。

  • Together, we will expand our uniquely disruptive combination of award-winning service and competitive low fares to more customers across the country as we combine the best of both airlines. You've heard me say it before. This transaction turbocharges our strategic growth plan. It will diversify and expand our network for customers, create new jobs and opportunities for crew members and expand our foundation for profitable growth, unlocking sustained long-term value for all of our stakeholders.

    隨著我們結合兩家航空公司的優勢,我們將共同將屢獲殊榮的服務和具有競爭力的低價票價的獨特顛覆性組合擴展到全國更多的客戶。你以前聽我說過。這筆交易加速了我們的戰略增長計劃。它將多樣化和擴大我們的客戶網絡,為船員創造新的就業機會和機會,並擴大我們實現盈利增長的基礎,為我們所有的利益相關者釋放持續的長期價值。

  • We remain highly confident in our ability to obtain regulatory approval no later than the first half of 2024. We expect the transaction to be accretive to EPS in the first full year following closing and to deliver $600 million to $700 million in annual net synergies once integration is complete. You can find more information about this transaction and the many stakeholder benefits on our website.

    我們對不遲於 2024 年上半年獲得監管部門批准的能力仍然充滿信心。我們預計該交易將在完成後的第一個全年增加每股收益,並在整合後提供 6 億至 7 億美元的年度淨協同效應已經完成。您可以在我們的網站上找到有關此交易和眾多利益相關者利益的更多信息。

  • We are thrilled about this unique long-term opportunity, but we also recognize that we are still some time away from closing. And even as we begin early work on integration planning, we remain focused on running the stand-alone business in the interim, and we also continue to execute on our organic initiatives.

    我們對這一獨特的長期機會感到興奮,但我們也認識到距離結束還有一段時間。即使我們開始進行整合規劃的早期工作,我們仍然專注於在此期間運營獨立業務,並且我們還將繼續執行我們的有機計劃。

  • Returning to sustained profitability, Slide 5. With that, we're here today to discuss earnings, and I would like to start with our quarterly reports on Slide 6. For the second quarter, we reported an adjusted loss per share of $0.47. As you will recall, we had some operational challenges earlier in the spring which drove a sizable reset to our full year growth plan and a number of investments to ensure we could operate reliably during this exceptionally busy summer season.

    回歸持續盈利,幻燈片 5。因此,我們今天在這裡討論收益,我想從幻燈片 6 的季度報告開始。第二季度,我們報告調整後的每股虧損為 0.47 美元。您會記得,我們在春季早些時候遇到了一些運營挑戰,這導致我們對全年增長計劃進行了相當大的調整,並進行了一些投資,以確保我們能夠在這個異常繁忙的夏季期間可靠地運營。

  • I'm proud to say that our operational performance improved significantly throughout the quarter, and we capitalized on the strong demand environment to deliver record revenue growth at the top end of our original guidance range and a record quarterly revenue result for JetBlue. We were profitable in the month of June on an adjusted basis, entering the third quarter with solid momentum as we expect to carry forward through to sustained profitability.

    我很自豪地說,我們的運營業績在整個季度都有顯著改善,我們利用強勁的需求環境,在我們最初的指導範圍的高端實現了創紀錄的收入增長,並為捷藍航空創造了創紀錄的季度收入結果。經調整後,我們在 6 月份實現了盈利,進入第三季度時勢頭強勁,因為我們預計將繼續實現持續盈利。

  • I'm pleased to see record demand for travel with JetBlue and the solid underlying momentum in our recovery as we work to build an even better JetBlue for our stakeholders.

    我很高興看到捷藍航空創紀錄的旅行需求以及我們復甦的堅實基礎動力,因為我們努力為我們的利益相關者打造更好的捷藍航空。

  • Moving now to Slide 7. With high fuel prices and our short-term operational investments are weighing on our margins this summer, we are making steady underlying progress on our long-term initiatives to structurally improve our profitability and enhance our long-term earnings power. Our network is foundational to our success, and we continue to strengthen relevance this year, primarily through our Northeast Alliance with American Airlines, or the NEA.

    現在轉到幻燈片 7。由於高油價和我們的短期運營投資在今年夏天對我們的利潤率造成壓力,我們在長期計劃方面取得了穩步的基本進展,以從結構上提高我們的盈利能力並增強我們的長期盈利能力.我們的網絡是我們成功的基礎,今年我們將繼續加強相關性,主要是通過我們與美國航空公司或 NEA 的東北聯盟。

  • The NEA will be a significant margin builder for JetBlue by allowing us to grow in New York and Boston, our 2 largest focus cities, and offering more value to all customers in the region. Together with American Airlines, we have created robust competition with industry-leading network depth and breadth and more combined daily departures than Delta and United. The NEA continues to scale nicely on its multiyear path to steady-state as we build our connectivity, enhanced loyalty benefits and a seamless customer experience.

    NEA 將允許我們在紐約和波士頓這兩個最大的重點城市發展,並為該地區的所有客戶提供更多價值,從而為捷藍航空帶來重要的利潤增長。與美國航空公司一起,我們以行業領先的網絡深度和廣度以及比達美航空和聯合航空更多的每日航班組合創造了激烈的競爭。隨著我們建立連通性、增強的忠誠度收益和無縫的客戶體驗,NEA 在其多年穩定的道路上繼續很好地擴展。

  • Across the pond, I'm delighted to say that we have secured permanent slots at London Heathrow starting at the end of October, the culmination of some great work together with our airport and government partners. In addition, we're excited to expand our award-winning transatlantic service to our second largest focus city with the launch of service from Boston this week, further strengthening our relevance in the Northeast. And with the addition of a third frequency between JFK and London in October, we'll be operating 5 daily flights between the Northeast and London this fall.

    隔著池塘,我很高興地說,我們已從 10 月底開始在倫敦希思羅機場獲得永久席位,這是與我們的機場和政府合作夥伴共同努力的結果。此外,我們很高興本週從波士頓推出服務,將我們屢獲殊榮的跨大西洋服務擴展到我們的第二大重點城市,進一步加強我們在東北部的相關性。隨著 10 月肯尼迪機場和倫敦之間增加第三個航班,我們將在今年秋天在東北部和倫敦之間運營 5 班每日航班。

  • More customers are engaging with JetBlue than ever before as we continue to see double-digit growth in our loyalty business, fueled by the NEA and the strength of our brand preference as we generate record cash flows from the program. And back in 2018, we shared with you a vision for our new JetBlue Travel Products subsidiary, with an audacious goal of contributing $100 million in EBIT by 2022. And despite all of the challenges of the last 24 months, we are on track to deliver close to that target this year.

    與以往相比,越來越多的客戶與捷藍航空互動,因為我們繼續看到我們的忠誠度業務實現兩位數的增長,這得益於 NEA 和我們的品牌偏好強度,因為我們從該計劃中產生了創紀錄的現金流。早在 2018 年,我們就與您分享了我們新的 JetBlue Travel Products 子公司的願景,其大膽的目標是到 2022 年貢獻 1 億美元的息稅前利潤。儘管過去 24 個月面臨所有挑戰,但我們仍有望實現今年接近這個目標。

  • Last month, just in time for the busy travel -- summer travel period, the JTP team rolled out a revamped website and additional inventory to Paisly by JetBlue, a travel website that we launched just over a year ago and offers customers a one-stop shopping platform to conveniently purchase ancillary travel products relevant to their trip, all backed by JetBlue's great customer service.

    上個月,正好趕上繁忙的旅行——夏季旅行期間,JTP 團隊推出了一個改版的網站,並為 Paisly by JetBlue 增加了庫存,這是我們一年多前推出的一個旅遊網站,為客戶提供一站式服務購物平台,方便購買與其旅行相關的輔助旅行產品,所有這些都由捷藍航空的優質客戶服務提供支持。

  • Earlier this year, when we reset our medium-term capacity plan to reflect the industry's constraints, we highlighted some potential mitigating actions to rightsize our footprint for this new reality. Today, we announced a further acceleration of our 190 transition with our fleet modernization efforts poised to accelerate not only our margin expansion, but our path to reducing emissions. And Ursula will walk you through our new structural cost program, which will set a new foundation for our long-term, low-cost structure.

    今年早些時候,當我們重新設置中期產能計劃以反映行業的限制時,我們強調了一些潛在的緩解措施,以調整我們的足跡以應對這一新現實。今天,我們宣布進一步加速我們的 190 過渡,我們的機隊現代化工作不僅準備加速我們的利潤擴張,而且我們減少排放的道路。 Ursula 將引導您完成我們新的結構成本計劃,這將為我們的長期低成本結構奠定新的基礎。

  • Finally, our responsibility to mitigate climate risk is a core part of our mission, and we remain steadfast in leading the industry in our efforts. We've recently announced our commitment to work with the Science Based Targets initiative to set a near-term emissions reduction target for our airline operations.

    最後,我們減輕氣候風險的責任是我們使命的核心部分,我們將堅定不移地在我們的努力中引領行業。我們最近宣布承諾與基於科學的目標倡議合作,為我們的航空公司運營設定近期減排目標。

  • In addition to our sustainability efforts, we remain committed by fostering diversity, and we're proud to say that underrepresented groups represent over 60% and 90% of students enrolled in our Gateway Select and Gateway Direct programs, respectively, which are industry-leading career development programs that allow crew members and external applicants to pursue a path to become a pilot or maintenance technician at JetBlue.

    除了我們在可持續發展方面的努力之外,我們仍然致力於促進多樣性,我們很自豪地說,在我們的行業領先的 Gateway Select 和 Gateway Direct 計劃中,代表性不足的群體分別代表了超過 60% 和 90% 的學生職業發展計劃,允許機組人員和外部申請人尋求成為捷藍航空飛行員或維修技術員的途徑。

  • Once again, I would like to thank our passionate crew members for caring for our customers, each other and JetBlue. With the foundation we put in place and the many exciting initiatives we have underway, I have never been more excited about our long-term cost outlook -- our long-term outlook, which will only be enhanced by our acquisition of Spirit.

    我要再次感謝我們熱情的機組人員對我們的客戶、彼此和捷藍航空的關心。有了我們奠定的基礎和我們正在進行的許多激動人心的舉措,我對我們的長期成本前景感到前所未有的興奮——我們的長期前景,只有通過我們收購 Spirit 才能得到加強。

  • With that, over to you, Joanna.

    有了這個,交給你,喬安娜。

  • Joanna L. Geraghty - President & COO

    Joanna L. Geraghty - President & COO

  • Great. Thank you, Robin. I would also like to add my thanks to our great team. Earlier this year, we made a number of operational decisions to better set us up for the summer. And while the summer has not been without its challenges, these investments are providing relief, and we are pleased that our completion factor is now back above 98%.

    偉大的。謝謝你,羅賓。我還要感謝我們偉大的團隊。今年早些時候,我們做出了一些運營決策,以更好地為夏季做好準備。雖然夏天並非沒有挑戰,但這些投資正在緩解壓力,我們很高興我們的完成率現在回到了 98% 以上。

  • We would like to thank our team as we know it has been a particularly challenging operating environment. I would also like to thank our industry partners at the FAA for their continued support and importantly, their transparency as we all work to bring flying back to the level and quality of a pre-pandemic environment.

    我們要感謝我們的團隊,因為我們知道這是一個特別具有挑戰性的運營環境。我還要感謝我們在 FAA 的行業合作夥伴的持續支持,重要的是,感謝他們的透明度,因為我們都在努力使飛行恢復到大流行前環境的水平和質量。

  • Turning to capacity on Slide 9. As Robin mentioned, we actually began moderating our capacity plans back in March, and following a challenging few weeks in April, we moved quickly to reset our full year growth plan. The reality is that almost no airline has been immune to operational challenges this year as the industry quickly ramped back up, and it's clear that what we experienced has now been felt by all of our peers. Frankly, it just hit us earlier given our network footprint and therefore, we were able to reset earlier.

    轉向幻燈片 9 上的產能。正如 Robin 所說,我們實際上早在 3 月就開始調整產能計劃,在 4 月充滿挑戰的幾週之後,我們迅速採取行動重新設定全年增長計劃。現實情況是,隨著行業迅速回暖,今年幾乎沒有一家航空公司能夠倖免於運營挑戰,很明顯,我們所經歷的一切現在已經被所有同行所感受到。坦率地說,考慮到我們的網絡足跡,它只是更早地襲擊了我們,因此,我們能夠更早地重置。

  • On our last call, we announced we were taking decisive action to reduce our full year capacity plan by 10 points to build greater resiliency into the operation. And today, we are tightening that capacity range. In fact, the incremental investments for the summer partially delayed an anticipated productivity benefit into the fourth quarter. As an example, in June, we had 16% more active pilots but 8% fewer block hours compared with 2019. And we are also carrying elevated reserve levels.

    在上次電話會議上,我們宣布將採取果斷行動,將全年產能計劃減少 10 個百分點,以增強運營的彈性。而今天,我們正在收緊這個容量範圍。事實上,夏季的增量投資部分將預期的生產力收益推遲到了第四季度。例如,與 2019 年相比,6 月份我們的活躍飛行員數量增加了 16%,但工作時間減少了 8%。而且我們的儲備水平也有所提高。

  • As we move beyond the peak summer, we expect some of these investments will gradually normalize as the broader aviation ecosystem stabilizes and we ramp utilization back up. That said, we firmly believe that this level of investment and a more conservative operational planning philosophy was necessary to ensure that we can reliably deliver for our customers and crew members, especially as external factors continue to make for a challenging operating environment during this busy summer season.

    隨著我們度過夏季高峰期,我們預計隨著更廣泛的航空生態系統趨於穩定並且我們提高利用率,其中一些投資將逐漸正常化。話雖如此,我們堅信這種水平的投資和更保守的運營規劃理念對於確保我們能夠可靠地為我們的客戶和船員提供服務是必要的,尤其是在這個繁忙的夏季,外部因素繼續導致運營環境充滿挑戰季節。

  • As noted, we closed May and June with a completion factor above 98% compared to approximately 90% during the first 3 weeks of April. As a result, when we provided our Q2 investor update in late May, we were the only airline to guide up capacity on a better May completion factor, while others were enacting further scheduled reductions. And in our congested geography, where more than 2/3 of our flights touch the Northeast, we had a higher completion factor than our peers in May and in June.

    如前所述,我們在 5 月和 6 月結束時完成率超過 98%,而 4 月前 3 週的完成率約為 90%。因此,當我們在 5 月下旬提供第二季度投資者更新時,我們是唯一一家以更好的 5 月完工係數指導運力增加的航空公司,而其他航空公司則在製定進一步的預定削減計劃。在我們擁擠的地理環境中,超過 2/3 的航班飛往東北部,我們在 5 月和 6 月的完成率高於同行。

  • With this said, we do continue to see challenges beyond what we can control, with continued difficult weather events on the East Coast and meaningful ATC constraints as they too face some of the same staffing challenges as most other businesses. To address this and build in a degree of resilience, we will continue to plan appropriate levels of reserve crews in the context of a more fragile national aviation system and one that is likely to remain so for the near to medium term. We continue to work collaboratively with the FAA to better understand their constraints, improve transparency and ensure we are set up to deliver for the flying public.

    話雖如此,我們確實繼續看到我們無法控制的挑戰,東海岸持續的惡劣天氣事件和有意義的 ATC 限制,因為他們也面臨與大多數其他企業相同的人員配備挑戰。為了解決這個問題並建立一定程度的彈性,我們將繼續在國家航空系統更加脆弱的背景下規劃適當水平的後備機組人員,而且這一系統可能在中短期內仍然如此。我們將繼續與 FAA 合作,以更好地了解他們的限制、提高透明度並確保我們能夠為飛行公眾提供服務。

  • For the second quarter of 2022, our capacity increased 2.3% year over three with strong completion factor trends. For the third quarter, we expect capacity to be negative 3% to flat year over three. We believe the sequential step-down in capacity in Q3, consistent with the revised capacity plan we announced back in April, is the right move to set us up for success this quarter. And for the full year 2022, we are tightening our forecast for capacity to grow between 0 and 3% versus 2019.

    2022 年第二季度,我們的產能同比增長 2.3%,完成因素趨勢強勁。對於第三季度,我們預計產能為負 3% 至三年以上持平。我們認為,與我們在 4 月份宣布的修訂後的產能計劃一致,第三季度的產能連續下降是讓我們在本季度取得成功的正確舉措。對於 2022 年全年,我們正在收緊對產能將比 2019 年增長 0% 到 3% 的預測。

  • During the second quarter, we continued our international expansion, the start-up service to our first Canadian Blue City, Vancouver, marking another milestone in JetBlue's history, in making us the only airline to offer nonstop flights from JFK. And as Robin mentioned, we're boosting transatlantic service even more this quarter, with new daily service between Boston and both Gatwick and Heathrow as well as a third frequency between JFK and London in October.

    在第二季度,我們繼續進行國際擴張,為我們的第一個加拿大藍城溫哥華提供啟動服務,這標誌著捷藍航空歷史上的另一個里程碑,使我們成為唯一一家提供肯尼迪國際機場直飛航班的航空公司。正如羅賓所提到的,我們在本季度進一步提升了跨大西洋服務,波士頓與蓋特威克機場和希思羅機場之間的新每日服務以及肯尼迪機場和倫敦之間的第三班次。

  • We are obviously very pleased to see the CDC follow the science and remove inbound testing requirements for international arrivals into the U.S., finally eliminating a cumbersome hurdle to the industry's continued recovery and driving further improvement in international demand, particularly in our Caribbean network where trends were already strong. On the other hand, we were disappointed to see the Canadian government reinstate the random testing regime, which we believe is a step in the wrong direction, but also serves as a reminder of the ever-evolving landscape of pandemic recovery.

    我們顯然很高興看到 CDC 遵循科學並取消了對國際入境美國的入境檢測要求,最終消除了該行業持續復甦的繁瑣障礙,並推動了國際需求的進一步改善,特別是在我們的加勒比網絡中,趨勢是已經很強大了。另一方面,我們對加拿大政府恢復隨機檢測制度感到失望,我們認為這是朝錯誤方向邁出的一步,但也提醒人們注意大流行恢復的不斷變化的格局。

  • Domestically, we have fully consolidated our LaGuardia operations to Terminal B earlier this month. In the fall, we're relocating to the brand-new South Terminal C in Orlando as the anchor tenant. And in the fourth quarter, we also plan to move into Newark's new Terminal A. We are excited to welcome our customers in these world-class terminals and provide them with an enhanced airport experience and a more seamless travel journey with JetBlue. And of course, operationally, we are looking forward to the improved efficiencies that come with the limiting split terminal operations at LaGuardia.

    在國內,本月早些時候,我們已將拉瓜迪亞機場的業務完全整合到 B 航站樓。秋季,我們將作為主力租戶搬遷至奧蘭多全新的南航站樓 C。在第四季度,我們還計劃搬入紐瓦克的新航站樓 A。我們很高興在這些世界一流的航站樓歡迎我們的客戶,並為他們提供增強的機場體驗和更無縫的捷藍航空旅行之旅。當然,在運營方面,我們期待拉瓜迪亞有限的拆分碼頭運營帶來的效率提高。

  • As we've smoothed out and derisked our return to growth this year, we are setting a strong foundation for the network to deliver sustained profitability as we build out our relevance. As always, we'll remain nimble and adept as needed to the broader macro environment, making decisions through the lens of margin.

    由於我們已經平滑並降低了今年恢復增長的風險,我們正在為網絡奠定堅實的基礎,以在我們建立相關性的同時提供持續的盈利能力。與往常一樣,我們將根據需要保持靈活和熟練,以適應更廣泛的宏觀環境,從利潤的角度做出決策。

  • Turning to Slide 10. During the second quarter, our revenue increased 16.1% year over three, better than the high end of our initial outlook as a result of robust demand across the network with a record number of customers. And we expect load factors to remain in the high 80s through the summer.

    轉到幻燈片 10。在第二季度,我們的收入在三年內同比增長 16.1%,好於我們最初展望的高端,這是由於整個網絡的強勁需求和創紀錄的客戶數量。我們預計整個夏季的載客率將保持在 80 年代的高位。

  • Our ancillary revenue per customer grew 65% in the second quarter to well over $50 per customer, and we are pleased with the success of our segmentation strategy, with a broad product portfolio that offers great value and choice for all customers. For the third quarter, we expect unit revenue to increase between 19% and 23% to the highest levels in our history as strong demand, combined with a tight supply backdrop helped offset the high price of fuel.

    我們的每位客戶的輔助收入在第二季度增長了 65%,達到每位客戶超過 50 美元,我們對我們的細分戰略的成功感到高興,我們擁有廣泛的產品組合,為所有客戶提供了巨大的價值和選擇。對於第三季度,我們預計單位收入將增長 19% 至 23% 至我們歷史上的最高水平,因為強勁的需求加上供應緊張的背景有助於抵消高昂的燃料價格。

  • Revenue is tracking well to help deliver a profitable quarter, and early bookings keep us cautiously optimistic about the fall. As Robin mentioned, we are solidly executing across a number of commercial initiatives. On the network front, we're making good progress in ramping up our margin-accretive Northeast Alliance with American Airlines. And while the industry has yet to return capacity to 2019 levels, the NEA is growing well in excess of the U.S. market.

    收入跟踪良好,有助於實現一個盈利的季度,提前預訂讓我們對秋季保持謹慎樂觀。正如 Robin 所提到的,我們正在紮實執行多項商業計劃。在網絡方面,我們在加強與美國航空公司的可增加利潤的東北聯盟方面取得了良好進展。儘管該行業的產能尚未恢復到 2019 年的水平,但 NEA 的增長遠遠超過了美國市場。

  • We've added over 50 new routes not previously served by either carrier and increased frequencies on another 130. Collectively, with American Airlines, we are now offering more departures out of New York than Delta and United.

    我們增加了 50 多條以前沒有由這兩家航空公司提供服務的新航線,並增加了另外 130 條的班次。總的來說,與美國航空公司一起,我們現在提供的從紐約出發的航班數量超過了達美航空和美聯航。

  • This growth is delivering tremendous consumer benefit as we offer more customers our award-winning combination of low fares and great service while eliciting a strong competitive response from other carriers, such as Delta's substantial growth at Boston and United additions at Newark as well as new service between Boston and London. Through the NEA, JetBlue is able to serve a broader set of customers, including business travelers, fly to more markets and create thousands of jobs in the process.

    這種增長正在為消費者帶來巨大的利益,因為我們為更多的客戶提供了我們屢獲殊榮的低票價和優質服務的組合,同時引起了其他航空公司的強烈競爭反應,例如達美航空在波士頓的大幅增長和聯合航空在紐瓦克的新增服務以及新服務在波士頓和倫敦之間。通過 NEA,捷藍航空能夠服務於更廣泛的客戶群,包括商務旅客,飛往更多市場並在此過程中創造數千個就業機會。

  • Business travel also continues to recover nicely, with Q2 contracted corporate bookings improving 10 points sequentially as we move closer to pre-pandemic levels. The Northeast Alliance positions us well to capitalize on the continued business travel recovery as we expand our share of the corporate travel wallet in the region, with a compelling network, schedule and service offering as well as reciprocity across our loyalty programs.

    商務旅行也繼續恢復良好,隨著我們接近大流行前的水平,第二季度的合同企業預訂量環比增長 10 個百分點。東北聯盟使我們能夠很好地利用持續的商務旅行複蘇,因為我們擴大了我們在該地區的商務旅行錢包的份額,具有引人注目的網絡、日程安排和服務提供以及我們忠誠度計劃的互惠。

  • Turning to loyalty and co-brand. The value proposition of our TrueBlue loyalty program continues to resonate extremely well with our customers, with program engagement at all-time highs. And I'm pleased to see yet another record quarter of program growth, with spend growth that continues to consistently and meaningfully exceed pre-pandemic levels, up over 40% year over three.

    轉向忠誠度和聯合品牌。我們的 TrueBlue 忠誠度計劃的價值主張繼續在我們的客戶中產生極好的共鳴,計劃參與度創歷史新高。我很高興看到項目增長又一個創紀錄的季度,支出增長繼續持續且有意義地超過大流行前的水平,三年來增長超過 40%。

  • This is an area with ample runway for growth, and our team continues to find new ways to add further value as we evolve the program and enhance this resilient cash flow stream. The short-term investments we made in the operation have positioned us well to reliably deliver the JetBlue Experience as we capitalize on the strong demand environment, while our strategic initiatives fuel our profitable growth over the long term.

    這是一個擁有充足增長空間的領域,我們的團隊將繼續尋找新的方法來增加更多價值,因為我們會發展該計劃並增強這種彈性現金流。我們在運營中進行的短期投資使我們能夠充分利用強勁的需求環境,可靠地提供捷藍航空體驗,同時我們的戰略舉措推動了我們的長期盈利增長。

  • I'll close with another thanks to our crew members. We know it's been a long summer and we are very appreciative of how you've taken care of our customers and importantly, one another. I'll turn the call over to you, Ursula.

    我將再次感謝我們的工作人員。我們知道這是一個漫長的夏天,我們非常感謝您如何照顧我們的客戶,更重要的是,彼此照顧。我會把電話轉給你的,厄休拉。

  • Ursula L. Hurley - CFO & Interim Principal Accounting Officer

    Ursula L. Hurley - CFO & Interim Principal Accounting Officer

  • Thank you, Joanna. I would also like to thank our incredible crew members for their commitment and hard work to ensure that we deliver for our customers, our fellow crew members and our owners as we lay the foundation to build back our margins beyond pre-pandemic levels and create sustainable long-term value for all of our stakeholders.

    謝謝你,喬安娜。我還要感謝我們出色的機組人員的承諾和辛勤工作,以確保我們為客戶、機組人員和業主提供服務,因為我們奠定了基礎,使我們的利潤恢復到大流行前的水平並創造可持續發展我們所有利益相關者的長期價值。

  • I'll start on Slide 12 with a brief overview of our financial results for the quarter. Revenue was a record $2.4 billion, up 16.1% year over three. Cost per available seat mile was up 34.7% year over three. CASM, excluding fuel and special items, was up 14.5% year over three. And our GAAP loss per share was $0.58, and adjusted loss per share was $0.47.

    我將從幻燈片 12 開始,簡要概述我們本季度的財務業績。收入達到創紀錄的 24 億美元,三年來增長 16.1%。每可用座位英里的成本在三年內增長了 34.7%。 CASM,不包括燃料和特殊項目,比三年來增長了 14.5%。我們的 GAAP 每股虧損為 0.58 美元,調整後的每股虧損為 0.47 美元。

  • I'm very pleased with the team's execution this quarter to position us to return to sustained profitability in the back half of the year. Despite the operational headwinds in April, the subsequent operational investments we made and the sharp rise in fuel prices throughout the quarter, we exited Q2 with an adjusted pretax profit for the month of June, and we look forward to carrying this momentum into Q3 and beyond.

    我對團隊本季度的執行情況感到非常滿意,這使我們能夠在下半年恢復持續盈利。儘管 4 月份的運營逆風,我們隨後進行的運營投資以及整個季度的燃油價格急劇上漲,但我們以 6 月份調整後的稅前利潤退出了第二季度,我們期待將這一勢頭延續到第三季度及以後.

  • Turning to Slide 13. During the second quarter, CASM ex-fuel increased 14.5% versus 2019, below our original guidance driven by efficiencies tied to a better operation. As you've heard, the reliability investments we made for this summer are yielding much improved operational results and have helped to derisk this summer, but they are weighing on our margin recovery. For the third quarter, we are forecasting CASM ex-fuel to increase 15% to 17%. We do expect this heightened investment to ease once we get beyond this summer peak. As a result, we expect to see some productivity improvement in the fourth quarter and into 2023.

    轉到幻燈片 13。在第二季度,CASM 不含燃料的價格與 2019 年相比增長了 14.5%,低於我們在與更好的運營相關的效率驅動下的最初指導。正如您所聽說的,我們為今年夏天所做的可靠性投資正在大大改善運營結果,並有助於在今年夏天降低風險,但它們正在影響我們的利潤率復甦。對於第三季度,我們預測 CASM 不含燃料將增長 15% 至 17%。我們確實預計,一旦我們度過了這個夏季高峰,這種增加的投資就會有所緩解。因此,我們預計第四季度和 2023 年的生產力會有所提高。

  • We are also tightening our forecast for full year 2022 CASM ex-fuel to increase in the range of 11% to 14% versus 2019 from prior guidance of 10% to 15%. As a reminder, this includes 6 points from the capacity reductions announced back in April, a total of 3 points from the spring operational challenges and the investments we're making for the summer and 1 point from inflationary pressures from pilots and our business partners.

    我們還收緊了對 2022 年全年 CASM 不含燃料的預測,與 2019 年相比,從之前的 10% 至 15% 增加了 11% 至 14% 的範圍。提醒一下,這包括 6 分來自 4 月份宣布的運力削減,春季運營挑戰和我們為夏季所做的投資總共 3 分,以及來自飛行員和我們的業務合作夥伴的通脹壓力 1 分。

  • Turning to Slide 14. On our last call, we mentioned that we had engaged some outside experts to conduct a thorough review of our costs to help us identify the optimal long-term cost structure for JetBlue as we emerge from the pandemic. The result of that work is the new structural cost program that I'm pleased to share with you today.

    轉到幻燈片 14。在上次電話會議中,我們提到我們已經聘請了一些外部專家對我們的成本進行了徹底的審查,以幫助我們確定捷藍航空擺脫大流行後的最佳長期成本結構。這項工作的結果是我今天很高興與您分享的新結構成本計劃。

  • Just prior to the pandemic, we concluded our first structural cost program, which successfully removed over $300 million of cost and was centered largely around sourcing contracts, distribution and implementing self-service technology and rationalizing other fixed costs. That program drove an industry-leading CASM ex-performance in 2019, and we were on track to execute a 0 to 1% CASM ex-CAGR from 2018 to 2020.

    就在大流行之前,我們完成了第一個結構性成本計劃,該計劃成功地消除了超過 3 億美元的成本,主要集中在採購合同、分銷和實施自助服務技術以及合理化其他固定成本。該計劃在 2019 年推動了行業領先的 CASM ex-業績,我們有望在 2018 年至 2020 年期間實現 0% 至 1% 的 CASM ex-CAGR。

  • Fast forward to today, and while we are still benefiting from our first structural cost program, we're embarking on a new plan to keep our costs low as part of our continuous focus on this area of our business. This new program focuses on cross-functional costs and is more about gaining operational and planning efficiencies.

    快進到今天,雖然我們仍在從我們的第一個結構成本計劃中受益,但作為我們持續關注我們業務領域的一部分,我們正在實施一項新計劃以保持低成本。這個新計劃側重於跨職能成本,更多地是為了提高運營和規劃效率。

  • This past quarter, we announced the creation of a new enterprise planning team, which will play a critical role in unlocking these structural efficiencies across the airline longer-term, some of which we have already begun implementing successfully.

    上個季度,我們宣布成立一個新的企業規劃團隊,該團隊將在整個航空公司長期釋放這些結構效率方面發揮關鍵作用,其中一些我們已經開始成功實施。

  • For example, Joanna mentioned that we are currently staffed at much higher levels of flying activity and we have strategically invested in reserves as part of our more conservative summer planning. But at the same time, we're actually seeing big improvements in planning productivity and reductions in pilot soft time. And these are exactly the types of underlying efficiencies that will carry forward and ramp beyond the summer while utilization also improves.

    例如,喬安娜提到我們目前的飛行活動水平要高得多,作為我們更保守的夏季計劃的一部分,我們已經戰略性地投資於儲備。但與此同時,我們實際上看到了規劃生產力的巨大改進和試點軟時間的減少。而這些正是這些潛在的效率類型,它們將在夏季之後繼續發展並提高效率,同時利用率也會有所提高。

  • We're also investing in automation across the business, especially in support of end-of-life maintenance planning given that we are now in a position where we are retiring aircraft for the first time. Specifically, we are investing in software that optimizes when to swap or remove engines to maximize utilization before retirement, thereby reducing total system-wide cost of engine ownership.

    我們還投資於整個業務的自動化,特別是支持報廢維護計劃,因為我們現在處於第一次退役飛機的位置。具體來說,我們正在投資於優化何時更換或移除發動機的軟件,以最大限度地提高退役前的利用率,從而降低整個系統的發動機擁有成本。

  • We expect this new structural cost program to deliver run rate cost savings of approximately $175 million by the end of 2024, with half of these savings expected by the end of 2023. This will help to mitigate any medium-term CASM headwinds and support our objective of a flat or better CASM ex-trajectory over a multiyear period, fueling our margin expansion beyond pre-pandemic levels.

    我們預計這一新的結構成本計劃將在 2024 年底之前節省約 1.75 億美元的運行率成本,預計到 2023 年底將節省一半。這將有助於緩解任何中期 CASM 逆風並支持我們的目標CASM 在多年期間保持平穩或更好的軌跡,推動我們的利潤率擴張超過大流行前的水平。

  • You'll also recall that earlier this year, we exercised and accelerated 30 A220 options in order to exit our E190 fleet by 2026. Today, we announced a further acceleration of our E190 retirement, pulling it forward by over a year to mid-2025 as we further optimize our fleet planning and maintenance spend. As part of this acceleration, we've already parked 3 E190 aircraft and plan to fit an additional 9 for a total of 12 E190 exits this year.

    您還記得,今年早些時候,我們行使並加速了 30 個 A220 選項,以便在 2026 年之前退出我們的 E190 機隊。今天,我們宣布進一步加速我們的 E190 退役,將其提前一年多到 2025 年年中隨著我們進一步優化我們的車隊規劃和維護支出。作為這種加速的一部分,我們已經停放了 3 架 E190 飛機,併計劃今年再安裝 9 架,總共 12 個 E190 出口。

  • We expect to save at least $75 million in maintenance expense through 2024 and will benefit from reallocating flying to much more CASM-efficient A220s, which have 30% lower direct operating costs and 35% better fuel efficiency. Our fleet modernization plans will not only improve our margins, but also accelerate our decarbonization journey.

    我們預計到 2024 年將至少節省 7500 萬美元的維護費用,並將受益於將飛行重新分配到更多 CASM 效率更高的 A220 飛機,這些飛機的直接運營成本降低 30%,燃油效率提高 35%。我們的車隊現代化計劃不僅會提高我們的利潤率,還會加速我們的脫碳之旅。

  • In total, the structural cost program and the accelerated E190 retirements will drive approximately $250 million of cost savings through 2024, with $150 million to $200 million of that representing a permanent run rate cost reduction.

    總體而言,結構成本計劃和 E190 加速退役將在 2024 年之前節省約 2.5 億美元的成本,其中 1.5 億至 2 億美元代表永久性運行率成本降低。

  • Turning to the balance sheet on Slide 15. In the second quarter, we paid down approximately $106 million of debt, and we funded approximately $205 million in capital expenditures. For the full year 2022, our CapEx forecast remains at approximately $1 billion. At the end of June, our adjusted debt to cap was 54%, and we closed the quarter with liquidity of $2.6 billion or 32% of 2019 revenue, excluding our revolving credit facility.

    轉到幻燈片 15 上的資產負債表。在第二季度,我們償還了大約 1.06 億美元的債務,並為大約 2.05 億美元的資本支出提供了資金。對於 2022 年全年,我們的資本支出預測仍約為 10 億美元。截至 6 月底,我們調整後的債務上限為 54%,本季度末流動性為 26 億美元,佔 2019 年收入的 32%,不包括我們的循環信貸額度。

  • As we think about our proposed acquisition of Spirit, it's important to remember that JetBlue's relative balance sheet strength is the key enabler of this transaction. Post closing, we continue to expect that JetBlue would maintain a strong balance sheet, with pro forma net leverage of approximately 3x to 3.5x, which we believe to be a very manageable level that still compares favorably to the peer group. A strong balance sheet is foundational to JetBlue's strategy, and the strong earnings accretion and cash flow profile of the combined business will allow us to quickly delever the balance sheet as we integrate.

    在我們考慮收購 Spirit 的提議時,重要的是要記住捷藍航空的相對資產負債表實力是此次交易的關鍵推動力。收盤後,我們繼續預計捷藍航空將保持強勁的資產負債表,備考淨槓桿率約為 3 至 3.5 倍,我們認為這是一個非常易於管理的水平,仍優於同行。強大的資產負債表是捷藍航空戰略的基礎,合併後業務強勁的收益增長和現金流狀況將使我們能夠在整合時迅速去槓桿化資產負債表。

  • To close, we recognize there is a lot of work ahead, but through the strong underlying momentum in the business and the continued execution of our various strategic initiatives, from the Northeast Alliance, to the evolution of our loyalty program, to scaling JetBlue Travel Products and now, our new structural cost program as well, we are setting a foundation to structurally improve our long-term earnings potential beyond pre-pandemic levels. I'm also very excited to welcome Spirit team members to JetBlue as we create the #5 carrier in the U.S. and unleash a national low-fare challenger to the Big Four.

    最後,我們認識到未來還有很多工作要做,但通過業務強勁的潛在動力和我們各種戰略計劃的持續執行,從東北聯盟到我們忠誠度計劃的發展,再到擴展捷藍旅遊產品現在,我們新的結構性成本計劃也是如此,我們正在為結構性地提高我們的長期盈利潛力奠定基礎,使其超越大流行前的水平。我也很高興歡迎 Spirit 團隊成員加入捷藍航空,因為我們在美國創建了排名第 5 的航空公司,並向四大航空公司發起了全國性的低價挑戰者。

  • I would like to once again express my sincere thanks to our crew members for their tireless efforts in helping to build a better JetBlue for all of our stakeholders. With that, we will now take your questions.

    我想再次對我們的機組人員表示誠摯的感謝,感謝他們為幫助所有利益相關者打造更好的捷藍航空所做的不懈努力。有了這個,我們現在將回答您的問題。

  • Jose Caiado

    Jose Caiado

  • Thanks, everyone. Cody, we're now ready for the question-and-answer session with the analysts. Please go ahead with the instructions.

    感謝大家。科迪,我們現在準備好與分析師進行問答環節了。請按照說明繼續。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question.

    (操作員說明)我們將回答第一個問題。

  • Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

    Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

  • This is Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore ISI. Just on the timing of the debt raise to support the Spirit acquisition, how do you think about the timing of that? Are there sort of regulatory hurdles you want to clear before that happens? And if you could comment at all on estimated cost of capital on that debt raise.

    我是 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。只是關於為支持 Spirit 收購而舉債的時機,您如何看待這個時機?在此之前,您是否想清除某種監管障礙?如果你能對那次舉債的估計資本成本發表評論。

  • Ursula L. Hurley - CFO & Interim Principal Accounting Officer

    Ursula L. Hurley - CFO & Interim Principal Accounting Officer

  • Good morning, Duane. So we currently have a 364-day bridge facility in place for $3.5 billion. We envision that staying in place until we receive regulatory approval. And then once we receive regulatory approval, we will then take out that bridge. We'll assess the various markets at that point in time and focus on all-in cost of funding, and we'll determine appropriately which assets and which markets to utilize in order to take out that bridge.

    早上好,杜安。因此,我們目前有一個 364 天的橋樑設施,耗資 35 億美元。我們設想在我們獲得監管部門批准之前保持不變。然後,一旦我們獲得監管部門的批准,我們就會拆除這座橋。我們將在那個時間點評估各個市場,並專注於融資的全部成本,我們將適當地確定要利用哪些資產和哪些市場來架起這座橋樑。

  • The cost of debt, in regards to the bridge at the moment, is around 6%. Given the time frame in which the bridge stays in place, there are some step-up fees along the way. So that could slightly increase depending on the length of the regulatory approval.

    目前,就橋樑而言,債務成本約為 6%。鑑於橋樑保持原位的時間範圍,沿途有一些升壓費用。因此,根據監管批准的時間長短,這可能會略有增加。

  • Obviously, the cost of debt when we take out the bridge facility, that could be the end of next year or early 2024. So the financing markets at that point in time could look very different than what they look like today. But you should envision us playing a keen focus on all-in cost of funding when we take it out.

    顯然,當我們拿出過橋工具時的債務成本,可能是明年年底或 2024 年初。因此,當時的融資市場可能與今天的情況大不相同。但是您應該設想我們在取出資金時會非常關注全部資金成本。

  • Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

    Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

  • And then just for my second, there was a competitor where an extension of basically credit balances impacted revenue trends or their outlook for the third quarter. And then going through that, post that call, it looks like JetBlue does have some policies of sort of COVID credits that expire at the end of September. Can you comment on how many points of revenue growth or how many points of revenue are from credit balance breakage?

    然後就我的第二個,有一個競爭對手,基本上信貸餘額的擴展影響了收入趨勢或第三季度的前景。然後通過那個電話,看起來捷藍航空確實有一些類似 COVID 信用的政策,這些政策將在 9 月底到期。您能否評論一下有多少收入增長點或多少收入來自信用餘額破壞?

  • David C. Clark - Head of Revenue & Planning

    David C. Clark - Head of Revenue & Planning

  • Hi, Duane. This is Dave Clark. I can take that one. Regarding the credits, since the pandemic began, we've seen a higher cancellation rate and thus more credits being issued. This is especially too early in the pandemic, when customers were canceling the flights in pretty high numbers. And we've been forecasting usage rates of the credits and recognizing increased breakage revenue since Q3 of 2020, so this is 2 years into the process for us. It's a relatively smooth ramp for us, with no large lump sort of as we go up or down.

    嗨,杜安。這是戴夫克拉克。我可以拿那個。關於積分,自大流行開始以來,我們看到取消率更高,因此發放了更多積分。這在大流行中尤其為時過早,當時客戶取消了相當多的航班。自 2020 年第三季度以來,我們一直在預測信用額度的使用率並確認破損收入增加,因此這對我們來說已經進行了 2 年。對我們來說,這是一個相對平穩的坡道,在我們上升或下降時沒有大塊。

  • The highest breakage revenue recognition was actually the past 3 quarters, from Q4 of '21 to Q2 of '22, and we're starting to normalize right now. And this is all sort of fairly low numbers, low single digits on the way up. And it will normalize at a higher rate than it was because customer cancellation behavior has changed with the removal of most change cancel fees. So on the way down, it's roughly a 1 point headwind, but all pretty smooth and low numbers for us.

    最高的破損收入確認實際上是過去三個季度,從 21 年第四季度到 22 年第二季度,我們現在開始正常化。這都是相當低的數字,正在上升的低個位數。並且它將以更高的速度正常化,因為客戶取消行為隨著大部分更改取消費用的取消而發生了變化。因此,在下降的過程中,大約是 1 分的逆風,但對我們來說一切都非常順利和低數字。

  • Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

    Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

  • And just to put a finer point, that 1 point headwind would be like a 4Q relative to 3Q? Is that the right way to think about it, or next year versus this year?

    只是說得更清楚一點,相對於 3Q 而言,那 1 分的逆風就像是 4Q?這是正確的思考方式,還是明年與今年?

  • David C. Clark - Head of Revenue & Planning

    David C. Clark - Head of Revenue & Planning

  • Correct. Think starting 4Q and throughout the first few quarters of 2023.

    正確的。想想從第四季度開始到 2023 年的前幾個季度。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll now move on to our next question.

    我們現在將繼續我們的下一個問題。

  • Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - Airlines Analyst

    Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - Airlines Analyst

  • It's Savi Syth from Raymond James. I'm just kind of curious, Ursula, keeping CASM ex-flattish versus kind of 2022, which, let's say, is around 12.5% above 2019 on kind of mid- to high single digits, that seems a little bit disappointing given that in 2020 you were supposed to have a step-down because of the first structural cost program. And you have had some kind of onetime items this year. So could you talk about what's the incremental costs you're seeing in 2023 that requires the new program to kind of maintain this flattish level?

    是 Raymond James 的 Savi Syth。我只是有點好奇,厄休拉,讓 CASM 與 2022 年相比持平,比方說,在中高個位數上比 2019 年高出約 12.5%,這似乎有點令人失望,因為在由於第一個結構性成本計劃,您應該在 2020 年降級。今年你有一些一次性物品。那麼,您能否談談您在 2023 年看到的需要新計劃保持這種持平水平的增量成本是多少?

  • Ursula L. Hurley - CFO & Interim Principal Accounting Officer

    Ursula L. Hurley - CFO & Interim Principal Accounting Officer

  • Sure. Thanks for the question, Savi. So maybe just to walk forward. So the midpoint of our guide this year is 12.5%. If you take out the spring disruption costs as well as the summer investments, you get down to an underlying CASM ex-of 8.5% for 2022. So next year, if you think about us growing capacity mid- to high single digits next year, that's historically what we said is the sweet spot. You would expect us to drive, to your point, a flattish CASM ex-fuel.

    當然。謝謝你的問題,薩維。所以也許只是向前走。所以我們今年指南的中點是 12.5%。如果您考慮春季中斷成本以及夏季投資,那麼您將在 2022 年降至 8.5% 的基本 CASM (除稅前)。所以明年,如果您考慮我們明年將增加中高個位數的產能,從歷史上看,這就是我們所說的最佳點。你會期望我們駕駛你的觀點,一個平坦的 CASM 前燃料。

  • However, we have also highlighted that we do have some headwinds next year, one of those being we will have a small incremental impact due to the NEA. And this is really because we moved into a new terminal space in LaGuardia this year as well as Newark. So you'll have the full year effect of that increase in 2023. We also have an aging fleet, so we've highlighted that we have a level of maintenance investment that will need to take place.

    然而,我們也強調,明年我們確實會遇到一些不利因素,其中之一是由於 NEA,我們將產生小的增量影響。這真的是因為我們今年搬進了拉瓜迪亞和紐瓦克的新航站樓。因此,您將在 2023 年獲得全年增長的影響。我們還有一支老化的機隊,所以我們強調了我們需要進行一定程度的維護投資。

  • And then we also have some in-flight rate increases from our new contracts that are effective in January as well. So essentially, (inaudible) our structural cost program that we rolled out today is going to help offset those headwinds. And essentially, we intend to deliver a flattish, if not better, CASM ex-fuel next year.

    然後,我們還從 1 月份生效的新合同中提高了一些飛行中的價格。因此,本質上,(聽不清)我們今天推出的結構性成本計劃將有助於抵消這些不利因素。從本質上講,我們打算明年提供一個持平的,如果不是更好的話,CASM ex-fuel。

  • Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - Airlines Analyst

    Savanthi Nipunika Prelis-Syth - Airlines Analyst

  • That's super helpful. And can I just ask on the capacity, to kind of start going back to that mid- to high single-digit growth level, especially the step-up from third quarter to fourth quarter, what you are kind of expecting on the resource side or expect on the operations side that's giving you confidence you can kind of meet that level.

    這非常有幫助。我能否問一下產能,開始回到中高個位數增長水平,尤其是從第三季度到第四季度的增長,你對資源方面的期望是什麼?期望在運營方面讓您有信心達到該水平。

  • I know you mentioned that -- it sounds like the pilot soft times are coming down. But I'm just kind of curious, well, given the issues that the industry has been having on kind of restoring capacity, where the confidence comes from for the fourth quarter and beyond.

    我知道你提到過 - 聽起來試點軟時間正在下降。但我只是有點好奇,好吧,考慮到該行業在恢復產能方面一直存在的問題,第四季度及以後的信心來自哪裡。

  • Joanna L. Geraghty - President & COO

    Joanna L. Geraghty - President & COO

  • Yes. Thanks, Savi. I'll take that. It's Joanna. So we're confident with the investments that we've made into the summer, that we're now in a position where we are ramped up to handle that level of capacity. We teased out some of the investments we made with pilots and additional reserves. We expect to continue some of those investments as we move forward, just to ensure a level of operational reliability.

    是的。謝謝,薩維。我會接受的。是喬安娜。因此,我們對我們在夏季所做的投資充滿信心,我們現在處於能夠處理這種產能水平的位置。我們梳理了我們通過試點和額外儲備所做的一些投資。我們希望在前進的過程中繼續其中的一些投資,以確保一定程度的運營可靠性。

  • Yes, there are some shorter-term summer investments that will peel off, but there's some, given the more fragile aviation ecosystem, that will stay. And we'll continue to invest there. And we feel that we're adequately staffed to handle that capacity adjustment. Obviously, the talent landscape is challenging, but the underlying infrastructure to support all of that, whether it's training, hiring, is fully ramped, and we feel good about that.

    是的,有一些短期夏季投資將會剝離,但鑑於航空生態系統更加脆弱,有一些投資將繼續存在。我們將繼續在那裡投資。而且我們認為我們有足夠的人員來處理產能調整。顯然,人才環境充滿挑戰,但支持所有這些的底層基礎設施,無論是培訓、招聘,都已全面升級,我們對此感覺良好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question.

    我們將回答下一個問題。

  • Scott H. Group - MD & Senior Analyst

    Scott H. Group - MD & Senior Analyst

  • It's Scott Group from Wolfe Research. So I just want to clarify just one thing on that CASM point about flattish. Are you talking -- are you guys guiding flattish versus the up 12.5% this year or versus what you tried to talk about the more normalized underlying plus 8% for this year?

    這是來自 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group。所以我只想澄清關於 CASM 關於扁平化的一點。你是在說——你們是在引導持平與今年上漲 12.5%,還是與你試圖談論的今年更正常化的基礎加 8% 相比?

  • Ursula L. Hurley - CFO & Interim Principal Accounting Officer

    Ursula L. Hurley - CFO & Interim Principal Accounting Officer

  • Yes, Scott. So it's against the 12.5% midpoint of our 2022 guide.

    是的,斯科特。因此,這與我們 2022 年指南的 12.5% 中點相反。

  • Scott H. Group - MD & Senior Analyst

    Scott H. Group - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Okay. Okay. Perfect. Okay. I just want to clarify. Can you guys share some color on the monthly sort of TRASM trajectory throughout second quarter and what you're assuming sort of as you look out throughout third quarter? And Rob, I know you had some, I don't know, cautious or maybe uncertain comments around fall and what business travel could look like. Any updated thoughts or color there?

    好的。好的。完美的。好的。我只是想澄清一下。你們能否分享一下整個第二季度每月 TRASM 軌蹟的一些顏色,以及在整個第三季度你所假設的情況? Rob,我知道你有一些我不知道的謹慎或不確定的評論,關於秋季和商務旅行可能是什麼樣子。那裡有任何更新的想法或顏色嗎?

  • Joanna L. Geraghty - President & COO

    Joanna L. Geraghty - President & COO

  • Hey, maybe I'll take that and flip it to Dave to give you some color, additional color. So as we think about Q2 into Q3, we're seeing many of the same trends that were present in Q2 carry into Q3, ultimately broad strength across most of our geographies. Transcon actually outperformed most of the geographies.

    嘿,也許我會把它拿來交給戴夫,給你一些顏色,額外的顏色。因此,當我們考慮 Q2 到 Q3 時,我們看到 Q2 中存在的許多相同趨勢一直延續到 Q3,最終在我們的大多數地區都有廣泛的優勢。 Transcon 實際上優於大多數地區。

  • And then as we look at VFR and international, the removal of the inbound testing requirements provided some nice lift there. Domestic Mint is also significantly performing. If you look at load factors, we're back to 2019 levels and then fares and yields for Q2, both above 2019 levels. So we're pleased with what we're seeing, obviously, cautiously optimistic about the fall and seeing these trends carry into the fall. Dave, if you want to add any color.

    然後,當我們查看 VFR 和國際時,入站測試要求的取消提供了一些不錯的提升。國內造幣廠也表現出色。如果您查看載客率,我們會回到 2019 年的水平,然後是第二季度的票價和收益率,均高於 2019 年的水平。因此,我們對我們所看到的情況感到滿意,顯然,對秋季持謹慎樂觀態度,並看到這些趨勢持續到秋季。戴夫,如果你想添加任何顏色。

  • David C. Clark - Head of Revenue & Planning

    David C. Clark - Head of Revenue & Planning

  • Sure. Thanks, Joanna. And this is Dave. As you mentioned, the trends continue. We've actually been remarkably steady throughout the quarter, ramped up really well during Q2 and then just more or less plateaued and stayed relatively flat as we moved through the third quarter, with the leisure bookings that we've taken so far into September and October remaining very strong and indicating that leisure travel should be resilient through the fall.

    當然。謝謝,喬安娜。這是戴夫。正如您所提到的,趨勢仍在繼續。我們實際上在整個季度都非常穩定,在第二季度增長得非常好,然後或多或少地處於平穩狀態,並且在我們進入第三季度時保持相對平穩,到目前為止,我們的休閒預訂已經進入了 9 月和10 月仍然非常強勁,表明休閒旅行在秋季應該會保持彈性。

  • And then in terms of corporate, corporate continues to progress. We progressed about 10 points in the recovery during the second quarter. We've seen that continue here for the first month of the third. We expect to see another step-up in the fall driven by continued return to work after Labor Day, and there's certainly high traveler willingness to be on the road. We see that in the surveys and with all of our discussions with corporate customers. So we think the recovery will continue as we head through the fall.

    然後在企業方面,企業不斷進步。我們在第二季度的複蘇中進步了大約 10 個百分點。我們已經看到這種情況持續到第三個月的第一個月。在勞動節後繼續重返工作崗位的推動下,我們預計秋季會出現另一個提升,而且肯定有很高的旅行者願意在路上。我們在調查以及我們與企業客戶的所有討論中都看到了這一點。因此,我們認為隨著秋季的到來,復甦將繼續。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll now take our next question.

    我們現在來回答下一個問題。

  • Jamie Nathaniel Baker - U.S. Airline and Aircraft Leasing Equity Analyst

    Jamie Nathaniel Baker - U.S. Airline and Aircraft Leasing Equity Analyst

  • It's Jamie Baker at JPMorgan. Robin, we didn't speak last week, so I did want to offer my congratulations on getting the deal announced. A question on the regulatory process. A second data request has already been made. You disclosed that. What happens from here?

    是摩根大通的傑米·貝克。羅賓,我們上週沒有說話,所以我確實想祝賀交易宣布。關於監管過程的問題。已經提出了第二個數據請求。你透露了這一點。從這裡會發生什麼?

  • I mean in the case of Alaska-Virgin, they pushed back their closing date to give them more time to work with Justice, which essentially disclosed the fact that they were talking. Do you envision providing color in this regard? Are you even permitted to do so? Would a third data request be disclosed, for example? I'm just trying to think through how to monitor from the outside.

    我的意思是,就阿拉斯加維珍航空而言,他們推遲了截止日期,以便有更多時間與正義合作,這基本上揭示了他們正在交談的事實。您是否設想在這方面提供顏色?你甚至被允許這樣做嗎?例如,是否會披露第三個數據請求?我只是想通過如何從外部監控。

  • Robin N. Hayes - CEO & Director

    Robin N. Hayes - CEO & Director

  • No. Thanks, Jamie, and I appreciate the comments and the thoughts about getting the Spirit transaction closed. We're extremely pleased with that. I think we have laid out a -- on the regulatory front, right through this process, I think we've laid out a sense that we expected this to take a fair amount of time. Obviously, we're not in control of the time line, although we are active participants in the process. And we're going to continue to engage with both DOJ and DOT as well as we work through the process.

    不,謝謝,傑米,我很欣賞關於關閉 Spirit 交易的評論和想法。我們對此非常滿意。我認為我們已經在監管方面製定了一個 - 在整個過程中,我認為我們已經制定了一種感覺,即我們預計這需要相當長的時間。顯然,我們無法控制時間線,儘管我們是這個過程的積極參與者。我們將繼續與 DOJ 和 DOT 合作,並完成整個過程。

  • Jamie, I don't know at this point what we'll exactly say and when. I do obviously understand people want to know where we are in the process. But equally, I think it's a process that is going to take some time, and we want to be respectful of the regulators' view and rights to review this transaction.

    傑米,我現在不知道我們會說什麼,什麼時候說。我顯然理解人們想知道我們在這個過程中的位置。但同樣,我認為這是一個需要一些時間的過程,我們希望尊重監管機構的觀點和審查這項交易的權利。

  • Jamie Nathaniel Baker - U.S. Airline and Aircraft Leasing Equity Analyst

    Jamie Nathaniel Baker - U.S. Airline and Aircraft Leasing Equity Analyst

  • Okay. That's fair. And second, how do you think a U.S. recession plays out for JetBlue? As a public company, you've only experienced a single downturn, so not a huge history to call on. But that's exactly why I'm interested in asking the question.

    好的。這還算公平。其次,您如何看待美國經濟衰退對捷藍航空的影響?作為一家上市公司,你只經歷過一次低迷,所以沒有什麼值得借鑒的歷史。但這正是我有興趣問這個問題的原因。

  • Robin N. Hayes - CEO & Director

    Robin N. Hayes - CEO & Director

  • Thanks. I'm going to ask Joanna to take that.

    謝謝。我要請喬安娜接受。

  • Joanna L. Geraghty - President & COO

    Joanna L. Geraghty - President & COO

  • Hey, Jamie. How are you?

    嘿,傑米。你好嗎?

  • Jamie Nathaniel Baker - U.S. Airline and Aircraft Leasing Equity Analyst

    Jamie Nathaniel Baker - U.S. Airline and Aircraft Leasing Equity Analyst

  • Hey.

    嘿。

  • Joanna L. Geraghty - President & COO

    Joanna L. Geraghty - President & COO

  • So you mentioned our history. So if you take a look at how we performed during the 2008, 2009 cycle, we actually performed better in '09 versus '08. Obviously, a lot has changed. Hopefully, we don't see a recession. But if we do, we've taken a hard look at our business model and its resilience during what we believe could happen. And we've changed quite a bit since then, I think, for the good, in terms of building additional resilience in.

    所以你提到了我們的歷史。因此,如果您看一下我們在 2008 年、2009 年周期中的表現,我們實際上在 09 年的表現優於 08 年。顯然,發生了很多變化。希望我們不會看到經濟衰退。但如果我們這樣做了,我們會認真審視我們的商業模式及其在我們認為可能發生的情況下的彈性。從那以後,我認為,在建立額外的彈性方面,我們已經發生了很大的變化。

  • We've continued to evolve our customer segmentation strategy. As you know, premium leisure tends to be more resilient during economic downturns. We now have our Mint product, which we did not have back in the '08, '09 crisis. We also carry a higher mix of VFR traffic, which also tends to be resilient. And we saw this as even in the face of the pandemic, when there were barriers to travel, this customer segment continued to fly, to see their friends and family.

    我們繼續發展我們的客戶細分策略。如您所知,高級休閒在經濟低迷時期往往更具彈性。我們現在有了我們的 Mint 產品,這是我們在 08 年、09 年危機中沒有的產品。我們還承載更高的 VFR 流量組合,這也往往具有彈性。我們認為,即使面對大流行,當旅行遇到障礙時,這個客戶群繼續飛行,去見他們的朋友和家人。

  • And then as you think about segments, potentially choosing to go down sort of the segmentation ladder, the introduction of our price-sensitive product, Blue Basic, is also -- I think bodes well for us. And then finally, ancillary revenue, this has only grown over the last decade. And this tends to be much stickier during a recession.

    然後,當您考慮細分市場時,可能會選擇走下細分階梯,我們對價格敏感的產品 Blue Basic 的推出也是——我認為這對我們來說是個好兆頭。最後是輔助收入,這在過去十年中才有所增長。在經濟衰退期間,這往往更具粘性。

  • So we do think there are inherent advantages in our business model. But we also recognize that recessions bring about a lot of change and not just on the demand side, but also, it could include lower input costs as well. That said, as you think about the levers that we have to pull, capacity, we've demonstrated, I think all airlines have demonstrated their ability to pull capacity in a challenging environment, and so we could slow our growth rate and obviously right-size to the demand environment.

    所以我們確實認為我們的商業模式有內在的優勢。但我們也認識到,經濟衰退帶來了很多變化,不僅在需求方面,而且還可能包括更低的投入成本。也就是說,當您考慮我們必須拉動的槓桿時,我們已經展示了運力,我認為所有航空公司都展示了他們在充滿挑戰的環境中拉動運力的能力,因此我們可以放慢我們的增長率,顯然是對的-需求環境的大小。

  • Labor, that continues to be an opportunity as we think about what JetBlue was able to accomplish during COVID, with voluntary programs and crew members taking advantage of those. And then, obviously, our fleet, we do have an aging fleet, so there could be opportunities to retire aircraft early. So again, inherent advantages in our business model, we think, will serve us well during a recession, but not looking at that through rose-colored glasses and recognizing that we do have these additional levers in our toolkit that we could pull if we needed to.

    工黨,這仍然是一個機會,因為我們考慮 JetBlue 在 COVID 期間能夠完成什麼,自願計劃和機組人員利用這些。然後,很明顯,我們的機隊,我們確實有一支老化的機隊,所以可能有機會讓飛機提前退役。再說一次,我們認為,我們商業模式的固有優勢將在經濟衰退期間為我們提供很好的服務,但不要通過有色眼鏡來看待這一點,並認識到我們的工具包中確實有這些額外的槓桿,如果我們需要,我們可以拉動至。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll now move on to our next question.

    我們現在將繼續我們的下一個問題。

  • Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

    Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

  • Mike Linenberg, Deutsche Bank. Robin, just a follow-up on Jamie's question. Obviously, it is going to be -- it seems like it's going to be a long regulatory process. But what can you do before you've gotten the full approval? Can you initiate codesharing, frequent flyer reciprocity? Can your fleet people talk to their fleet people? I know that there are things that you can do, some of them may need DOT approval. Can you just talk about maybe some of the things that you could do or planning to do in the near term?

    德意志銀行的邁克·林伯格。羅賓,只是對傑米問題的跟進。顯然,這將是 - 似乎這將是一個漫長的監管過程。但是在獲得完全認可之前,你能做什麼呢?你能發起代碼共享、飛行常客互惠嗎?您的艦隊人員可以與他們的艦隊人員交談嗎?我知道有些事情你可以做,其中一些可能需要 DOT 批准。您能談談近期可以做或計劃做的一些事情嗎?

  • Robin N. Hayes - CEO & Director

    Robin N. Hayes - CEO & Director

  • Yes. Hi, Michael. Yes, no, thanks for the question. Obviously, many airlines have been through this many times. So we have a lot to learn from what others have done. And yes, it is true. There are a small number of things that you're able to sort of talk about in that period. But we're going to take a very cautious approach to that. We're going to follow our legal advice and make sure that we're doing nothing to jeopardize to close the transaction or to give concern to our regulators who are reviewing it.

    是的。嗨,邁克爾。是的,不,謝謝你的問題。顯然,很多航空公司都經歷過很多次。因此,我們可以從其他人的做法中學到很多東西。是的,這是真的。在那個時期,你可以談論的事情很少。但我們將對此採取非常謹慎的態度。我們將遵循我們的法律建議,並確保我們不會採取任何行動來危害完成交易或讓正在審查它的監管機構感到擔憂。

  • And so I think work is all underway in terms of some of the internal planning that we do. Right now, our focus, in addition to obviously the regulatory process, which is underway, is to make sure we get the shareholder approval, Spirit shareholder approval for the transaction.

    因此,我認為就我們所做的一些內部規劃而言,工作正在進行中。目前,除了正在進行的監管程序之外,我們的重點是確保我們獲得股東批准,Spirit 股東對交易的批准。

  • Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

    Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

  • What is the date of that, Robin? Have you come out with a date on the Spirit shareholder?

    羅賓,那是什麼日期?你有沒有與精神股東約會?

  • Robin N. Hayes - CEO & Director

    Robin N. Hayes - CEO & Director

  • No. My best estimate, Michael, is sort of 60 to 90 days, and we have to get the proxy completed with Spirit, then we have to see if there's any SEC comments on that. And then it's got to -- we've got to publish a meeting date. So we don't have the exact date yet, but we'll know more on that soon.

    不。邁克爾,我最好的估計是 60 到 90 天,我們必須用 Spirit 完成代理,然後我們必須看看 SEC 是否對此有任何評論。然後必須——我們必須公佈會議日期。所以我們還沒有確切的日期,但我們很快就會知道更多。

  • Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

    Michael John Linenberg - MD and Senior Company Research Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then just my second question, Joanna, getting from a 90% completion factor to 98%, obviously a step in the right direction. But I suspect 98% is not still where you want to be, probably 99.2%, 99.3%. You did call out operational challenges, for not just you but the industry, in the near and medium term.

    好的。偉大的。然後是我的第二個問題,喬安娜,完成率從 90% 提高到 98%,顯然是朝著正確方向邁出的一步。但我懷疑 98% 還不是你想要的,可能是 99.2%、99.3%。您確實提出了近期和中期的運營挑戰,不僅是您,還有整個行業。

  • What -- how do we get to 99%-plus? Do we get there by year-end? Is that a 2023 phenomenon? Every point of completion factor is -- probably, the old saw was worth a point of margin, and I'm not sure if that's still applicable to you or not. But it does seem like there's some upside there, but it may take some time. If you can comment on that.

    什麼——我們如何達到 99% 以上?我們能在年底前到達那裡嗎?這是2023年的現象嗎?完成因素的每一個點 - 可能,舊鋸值得一點保證金,我不確定這是否仍然適用於你。但看起來確實有一些好處,但可能需要一些時間。如果你能對此發表評論。

  • Joanna L. Geraghty - President & COO

    Joanna L. Geraghty - President & COO

  • Yes, sure. Obviously, weather and then continued ATC disruptions are what will stand in the way of improving completion factor. I would say we're nearing historical levels. And so I think we're really pleased with where we are now. The teams have done a really nice job. But at the end of the day, weather and ATC challenges continue to be sort of the impediment to getting it up above 98%.

    是的,當然。顯然,天氣和持續的 ATC 中斷將阻礙提高完成率。我想說我們正在接近歷史水平。所以我認為我們對我們現在所處的位置非常滿意。團隊做得非常好。但歸根結底,天氣和 ATC 挑戰仍然是使其升至 98% 以上的障礙。

  • Robin N. Hayes - CEO & Director

    Robin N. Hayes - CEO & Director

  • Yes. Michael, let me just add to that. If we take July -- and Joanna mentioned this, but if we were to take our completion factor in July 2022 and compare it with 2019, it is extremely close. I mean I think it's like 0.2% away. So I think the biggest driver of completion factor during the summer period is just the amount of ATC programs that are getting put in place, primarily those are weather-connected. So on a good day here, we'll have a completion factor, I hope, of as close to 100% as we can.

    是的。邁克爾,讓我補充一下。如果我們選擇 7 月——喬安娜提到了這一點,但如果我們將 2022 年 7 月的完成係數與 2019 年進行比較,它非常接近。我的意思是我認為這大約是 0.2%。所以我認為夏季期間完成因素的最大驅動因素只是正在實施的 ATC 項目的數量,主要是那些與天氣有關的項目。因此,在這裡度過美好的一天,我希望我們的完成率盡可能接近 100%。

  • But because of the (inaudible) in the Northeast and just the number of ATC programs that we see on a day when you have sort of a 3- to 4-hour ground delay program that's pushed into New York, you're going to see the industry with a completion factor somewhere probably between 90% to 95%. And so when you average those, you kind of get to that sort of 98%, 99% summer completion factor, which I think means that we're basically completing every -- almost every flight other than those that are directly impacted by an ATC program or weather.

    但是由於東北部的(聽不清)以及我們在一天中看到的 ATC 計劃的數量,當你有一個 3 到 4 小時的地面延誤計劃被推到紐約時,你會看到完成率可能在 90% 到 95% 之間的行業。所以當你平均這些時,你會達到那種 98%,99% 的夏季完成係數,我認為這意味著我們基本上完成了每一個 - 幾乎每一個航班,除了那些直接受 ATC 影響的航班節目或天氣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll then move on to our next question.

    然後我們將繼續我們的下一個問題。

  • Daniel J. McKenzie - Research Analyst

    Daniel J. McKenzie - Research Analyst

  • Dan McKenzie from Seaport here. A couple of things. It's great to see the messaging that reiterates the prior objective of achieving the same or better margins versus pre-pandemic levels. The growth in cost commentary is helpful. On the balance sheet side, it looks like the plan is for lower leverage on a stand-alone and/or a merger scenario. And on this point, are there free cash flow targets that you can share once back to normalized levels of profitability?

    來自海港的 Dan McKenzie。有幾件事。很高興看到消息重申了實現與大流行前水平相同或更好的利潤率的先前目標。成本評論的增長是有幫助的。在資產負債表方面,該計劃似乎是在獨立和/或合併方案中降低杠桿率。在這一點上,一旦回到正常的盈利水平,您是否可以分享自由現金流目標?

  • Ursula L. Hurley - CFO & Interim Principal Accounting Officer

    Ursula L. Hurley - CFO & Interim Principal Accounting Officer

  • Good morning, Dan. Good to hear from you. So we did highlight that post-transaction, we expect to end up at 3 to 3.5 turns of leverage, which is below the median within the industry. Obviously, the joint combined company, we intend to generate meaningful cash flow right out of the gate. And so the focus will be on delevering the balance sheet to get it back to an even more acceptable level to JetBlue based on our historical performance and the way in which we manage the balance sheet.

    早上好,丹。很高興聽到你的消息。因此,我們確實強調了交易後,我們預計最終會達到 3 到 3.5 倍的槓桿率,低於行業中值。顯然,聯合合併公司,我們打算一開始就產生有意義的現金流。因此,重點將放在資產負債表的去槓桿上,以根據我們的歷史表現和我們管理資產負債表的方式將其恢復到捷藍航空更可接受的水平。

  • So we do believe that, that could be a fairly quick delevering exercise once the 2 combined companies come together. What I will say is the synergies obviously ramp up over a multi-period time frame, so it will take us a few years. But the goal, obviously, will be, as I mentioned, to get even lower than the 3 to 3.5x.

    因此,我們確實相信,一旦兩家合併後的公司合併,這可能是一個相當快速的去槓桿活動。我要說的是,協同效應顯然會在多個時期內增加,所以我們需要幾年時間。但顯然,正如我所提到的,目標將是低於 3 到 3.5 倍。

  • Daniel J. McKenzie - Research Analyst

    Daniel J. McKenzie - Research Analyst

  • Understood. On the corporate trends, I'm wondering if you can just put a finer point on some of the prior Q&A questions. I guess with respect to the operational challenges, to what extent did they impact the corporate trends in the second quarter? Is there an impact on corporate demand heading into third quarter? So I'm just trying to get a better read on what's behind the revenue outlook. And is there some pent-up corporate demand here? And when can the volumes and revenue really surpass 2019 levels?

    明白了。關於企業趨勢,我想知道您是否可以對之前的一些問答問題進行更詳細的說明。我想關於運營挑戰,它們在多大程度上影響了第二季度的企業趨勢?進入第三季度對企業需求有影響嗎?所以我只是想更好地了解收入前景背後的原因。這裡是否存在一些被壓抑的企業需求?什麼時候銷量和收入才能真正超過 2019 年的水平?

  • David C. Clark - Head of Revenue & Planning

    David C. Clark - Head of Revenue & Planning

  • Thanks, Dan, for the question. This is Dave. We saw just a little pressure, I would say, at the beginning of the second quarter, more of a blip as we had the difficult first half of April, slightly on the corporate side, saw some on the leisure side as well. But as we moved through the second quarter and improved and got back towards our targets and at or above where our peers were, any of that has dissipated away.

    謝謝,丹,這個問題。這是戴夫。我想說的是,在第二季度初,我們看到了一點壓力,更多的是暫時的,因為我們在 4 月上半月經歷了艱難的時期,在企業方面略有壓力,在休閒方面也看到了一些壓力。但隨著我們在第二季度取得進展並有所改善並回到我們的目標並達到或高於我們的同齡人的水平,所有這些都消失了。

  • We've seen corporate sentiment continue to rebound as the operation has improved. And it's clear that corporates or the travelers themselves, the individuals already get on the road, all the surveys show that. As return to office continues, that will help enable more trips. Certainly, corporate customers are excited to get back in front of their customers and to do face-to-face revenue-generating meetings as well as some internal work and conference work that's been suspended for the last couple of years. So a lot of different pieces there.

    隨著運營的改善,我們看到企業情緒繼續反彈。很明顯,企業或旅行者本身,個人已經開始上路,所有調查都表明這一點。隨著重返辦公室的繼續,這將有助於實現更多的旅行。當然,企業客戶很高興能回到他們的客戶面前,進行面對面的創收會議,以及過去幾年暫停的一些內部工作和會議工作。所以那裡有很多不同的作品。

  • The NEA is really helping to add more options for these customers in the Northeast. As our seamlessness continues to ramp up, we've seen increasingly positive sentiment from our corporate customers. And about 2/3 of them now have the NEA codeshare benefits in their corporate contracts. So things continue to improve. We don't have a final date yet on when we'll reach fully recovered. At this trend, we're probably looking late this year or over the winter, but we'll see how that progresses, and it could happen sooner.

    NEA 確實有助於為東北地區的這些客戶增加更多選擇。隨著我們的無縫性不斷提高,我們看到企業客戶的積極情緒越來越高。其中約 2/3 現在在其公司合同中擁有 NEA 代碼共享福利。所以事情還在繼續改善。我們還沒有完全康復的最終日期。在這種趨勢下,我們可能會在今年晚些時候或整個冬天看起來,但我們會看到它的進展情況,並且它可能會更早發生。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll now move on to our next question.

    我們現在將繼續我們的下一個問題。

  • Christopher Nicholas Stathoulopoulos - Associate

    Christopher Nicholas Stathoulopoulos - Associate

  • This is Chris Stathoulopoulos, Susquehanna Financial Group. So Ursula or Robin, I just want to dig into this -- the buckets here, you've outlined on Slide 14. The range of these numbers here, are these independent of the high single-digit ASM guide you put out? Meaning if we are in a recessionary scenario and that high single digit is perhaps a 4 to 5, can you still hit these targets?

    我是 Susquehanna Financial Group 的 Chris Stathoulopoulos。所以厄休拉或羅賓,我只是想深入研究一下——這裡的桶,你在幻燈片 14 上概述了。這些數字的範圍,這些數字與你發布的高個位數 ASM 指南無關嗎?這意味著,如果我們處於經濟衰退的情況下,並且那個高個位數可能是 4 到 5,你還能達到這些目標嗎?

  • And then b, how much of this -- because the maintenance piece was, in tech ops, if I remember, was a big focus in the last plan. So how much of this is sort of identified during the pandemic versus a natural evolution of the plan that you envisioned as you were coming -- exiting 2019?

    然後 b,這有多少 - 因為維護部分是,在技術操作中,如果我記得的話,是上一個計劃中的一個重點。那麼,有多少是在大流行期間確定的,而不是您在即將到來時設想的計劃的自然演變——退出 2019 年?

  • Ursula L. Hurley - CFO & Interim Principal Accounting Officer

    Ursula L. Hurley - CFO & Interim Principal Accounting Officer

  • Thanks for the question, Chris. So first and foremost, half of the program that we've laid out is tied to enterprise planning. So when I think of network and crew planning, we're essentially redesigning our processes to improve operability, which should result in improved cost performance. And the way in which our network has evolved, given COVID, it's the pertinent time to actually ensure that we're iterating past performance and identifying, quite frankly, the optimal intersection between network operability and quality of life for our crew. So the ranges take into consideration the capacity growth.

    謝謝你的問題,克里斯。因此,首先,我們制定的計劃中有一半與企業規劃相關。因此,當我想到網絡和人員規劃時,我們本質上是在重新設計我們的流程以提高可操作性,這應該會提高成本效益。鑑於 COVID,我們的網絡發展方式,現在是真正確保我們正在迭代過去的性能並坦率地確定網絡可操作性和我們船員的生活質量之間的最佳交集的恰當時機。因此,這些範圍考慮了容量增長。

  • In regards to end-of-life maintenance optimization, the structural cost program 1.0 that we delivered on, that was really focused in tech ops on airframe and engine contracts. This program is putting technology in place to optimize, quite frankly, end-of-life retirements for aircraft and engines. This program also is focused for maintenance on operational improvements, so given how the network has evolved, having the right tools, parts and processes in place to deliver from an operability perspective, and so from a maintenance perspective, these initiatives are very different than the first structural cost program.

    關於報廢維護優化,我們交付的結構成本計劃 1.0,真正專注於機身和發動機合同的技術操作。坦率地說,該計劃正在採用技術來優化飛機和發動機的報廢退役。該計劃還專注於運營改進的維護,因此考慮到網絡的發展方式,從可操作性的角度來看,擁有正確的工具、部件和流程來交付,因此從維護的角度來看,這些舉措與第一個結構成本計劃。

  • So all in all, to summarize that, we feel confident in delivering the $150 million to $200 million in structural cost savings by the end of 2024. And the ranges do take into account a small capacity range.

    總而言之,總而言之,我們有信心在 2024 年底之前實現 1.5 億至 2 億美元的結構成本節約。而且這些範圍確實考慮到了較小的容量範圍。

  • Christopher Nicholas Stathoulopoulos - Associate

    Christopher Nicholas Stathoulopoulos - Associate

  • Okay. And the flattish -- my follow-up CASM ex-guide through 2024, that is on, I'm guessing, on a sustained high single-digit ASM base. Does that -- just remind us if that includes any labor deals. And on that high single-digit ASM base, if you could, any color you could break out in terms of how you're thinking about gauge, stage lengths or new markets or building out depths of schedules? Just want to understand the buildup into that ASM guide.

    好的。而平淡無奇的——我的後續 CASM 前指南到 2024 年,我猜是在持續的高個位數 ASM 基數上。是否 - 只是提醒我們這是否包括任何勞務交易。在高個位數的 ASM 基礎上,如果可以的話,就您如何考慮規格、階段長度或新市場或建立時間表深度而言,您可以突破任何顏色?只是想了解該 ASM 指南的內容。

  • Ursula L. Hurley - CFO & Interim Principal Accounting Officer

    Ursula L. Hurley - CFO & Interim Principal Accounting Officer

  • So we're technically not providing 2023 and 2024 capacity guidance. However, historically, we've provided those guardrails around mid- to high single digits being the sweet spot for JetBlue and delivering superior margins. So that's how I would think about the next few years. Actually, I forget the second part of...

    因此,從技術上講,我們不提供 2023 年和 2024 年的容量指導。然而,從歷史上看,我們已經提供了大約中高個位數的護欄,這是捷藍航空的最佳選擇,並提供了更高的利潤率。所以這就是我對未來幾年的看法。其實我忘了第二部分...

  • David C. Clark - Head of Revenue & Planning

    David C. Clark - Head of Revenue & Planning

  • Labor, labor...

    勞力,勞力……

  • Ursula L. Hurley - CFO & Interim Principal Accounting Officer

    Ursula L. Hurley - CFO & Interim Principal Accounting Officer

  • Labor, yes, I'm not going to comment on labor at this point in time. We are in discussions with our pilots. But I'm not going to comment on that today. Over to you, David. Any color on stage and gauge over the coming years?

    工黨,是的,我現在不打算對工黨發表評論。我們正在與我們的飛行員進行討論。但我今天不打算對此發表評論。交給你了,大衛。未來幾年舞台和儀表上的任何顏色?

  • David C. Clark - Head of Revenue & Planning

    David C. Clark - Head of Revenue & Planning

  • Sure. I think we'll see roughly what we're seeing today. Obviously, with the retirement of the E190s and bringing in the A220s, there's a bit of a gauge increase that's well known as part of that. But in general, we'll see the same sort of trends that we've had for the last couple of years.

    當然。我想我們會大致看到我們今天所看到的。顯然,隨著 E190s 的退役和 A220s 的引入,作為其中的一部分,規格有所增加。但總的來說,我們會看到與過去幾年相同的趨勢。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll now take our next question.

    我們現在來回答下一個問題。

  • Helane Renee Becker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Helane Renee Becker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • It's Helane Becker from Cowen. So just on the question of moving later, I guess, did you say later this winter-fall into a new Terminal A at Newark and then new operations or a new terminal at Orlando? As you think about the cost of doing that versus the benefits, can you just talk about, I don't know, whether it's a cost savings that you would experience with those 2 or -- and maybe include LaGuardia in there, in airports -- of those 3 airports?

    是 Cowen 的 Helane Becker。所以只是關於稍後搬家的問題,我猜,你是不是說今年冬天晚些時候搬到紐瓦克的新航站樓 A,然後在奧蘭多新運營或新航站樓?當您考慮這樣做的成本與收益時,您能否談談,我不知道您是否會在這兩個方面體驗到成本節約,或者——也許包括拉瓜迪亞機場—— - 那三個機場?

  • Ursula L. Hurley - CFO & Interim Principal Accounting Officer

    Ursula L. Hurley - CFO & Interim Principal Accounting Officer

  • Yes. So thanks for the question, Helane. Obviously, moving into new terminals will have an impact on the cost structure. However, we're growing in high-value geographies. So we expect the margin production to heavily offset the infrastructure investments that are taking place. Dave -- it is an enhanced customer experience for our customers, and so there are benefits there. Dave, anything else to add?

    是的。所以謝謝你的問題,海倫。顯然,搬入新碼頭將對成本結構產生影響。但是,我們正在高價值地區發展。因此,我們預計利潤率生產將大大抵消正在進行的基礎設施投資。戴夫——這對我們的客戶來說是一種增強的客戶體驗,因此有好處。戴夫,還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • David C. Clark - Head of Revenue & Planning

    David C. Clark - Head of Revenue & Planning

  • Sure. Thanks, Ursula. And hi, Helane, this is Dave. In addition to the superior customer experience, there's some efficiencies as well. I think in LaGuardia Terminal B, we're reducing from 2 terminals that we were operating in before, down to 1. That creates efficiencies. We're also co-locating with American, which provides efficiencies in terms of customer connections within the Northeast Alliance. So we feel really good about that one.

    當然。謝謝,烏蘇拉。嗨,海倫,我是戴夫。除了卓越的客戶體驗之外,還有一些效率。我認為在拉瓜迪亞航站樓 B,我們正在將之前運營的 2 個航站樓減少到 1 個。這提高了效率。我們還與美國航空合作,這在東北聯盟內的客戶聯繫方面提供了效率。所以我們對此感覺非常好。

  • Newark has also been a real challenge in the old terminal. There wasn't enough space, security room, hold room space. We are pushing departures across multiple terminals as well. So there's a lot of efficiency in just getting the customer experience to an acceptable level and then to a very good level that we're excited about there. So certainly some benefits that come with simplifying operations into one terminal across various cities.

    紐瓦克在舊航站樓也是一個真正的挑戰。沒有足夠的空間,安全室,保持室空間。我們也在推動跨多個航站樓的出發。因此,將客戶體驗提高到可接受的水平,然後達到我們對此感到興奮的非常好的水平,效率很高。因此,將運營簡化為跨多個城市的一個終端當然會帶來一些好處。

  • Helane Renee Becker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Helane Renee Becker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • And then just for a follow-up question on -- as you think about, Ursula, since you mentioned geographies and operating in high-value geographies, is there a way for you, over maybe the next year or 3, to move some of that capacity to other geographies that maybe are less impacted by air traffic control?

    然後只是一個後續問題 - 正如你所想的那樣,厄休拉,因為你提到了地域並在高價值地域開展業務,你有沒有辦法在未來一年或三年內轉移一些對其他可能受空中交通管制影響較小的地區的能力?

  • Joanna L. Geraghty - President & COO

    Joanna L. Geraghty - President & COO

  • Hey, Helane, this is Joanne. I'll take it, and then Robin, I'm sure, wants to chime in. So as you look about the Spirit transaction, that's in part what it is about, is the ability to grow more quickly and diversify our network outside of the Northeast. If you look at the divestitures that we put out there, it's really keeping the Northeast growth kind of in line with where it is today and growing outside of that geography.

    嘿,海蘭,這是喬安妮。我會接受它,然後羅賓,我敢肯定,想插話。所以當你看到 Spirit 交易時,它的部分意義在於,它能夠更快地增長並使我們的網絡多樣化。東北。如果你看看我們在那裡進行的資產剝離,它確實使東北部的增長與今天的情況保持一致,並在那個地理區域之外增長。

  • I think the piece I will point out is New York has historically been a great sort of margin-building engine for JetBlue, and it's not fully recovered yet. And so as you think about potential upside even in the Northeast geographies, New York is one of those places where, whether it's moving to the new terminal, in Newark or LaGuardia, these are long-term investments. By the way, Newark, they're tearing it down, so there's not an option there. But these are investments, we think, are more than appropriate given where New York has historically been and where we think it's going to return to over the medium term.

    我想我要指出的一點是,紐約在歷史上一直是捷藍航空的一個很好的利潤增長引擎,但它還沒有完全恢復。因此,即使您考慮東北地區的潛在上行空間,紐約也是其中之一,無論是搬到紐瓦克還是拉瓜迪亞的新航站樓,這些都是長期投資。順便說一句,紐瓦克,他們正在拆除它,所以那裡沒有選擇。但我們認為,考慮到紐約的歷史位置以及我們認為它將在中期內恢復的位置,這些投資是非常合適的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And we'll take our final question.

    我們將回答最後一個問題。

  • James Edward Brazier Hollins - Senior Transport Analyst

    James Edward Brazier Hollins - Senior Transport Analyst

  • James Hollins from BNP Paribas. Just my first question, just on staffing levels, it looks like they are probably a tick just above 20,000. I'm just wondering if that's kind of the right number through the rest of '22 and maybe what the -- where you would expect to be in 2023 as you look to grow what sounds like mid- to high single digit.

    法國巴黎銀行的詹姆斯·霍林斯。只是我的第一個問題,就人員配備水平而言,看起來他們可能略高於 20,000。我只是想知道在 22 年剩下的時間裡,這是否是一個正確的數字,也許你希望在 2023 年達到什麼水平,因為你希望增長聽起來像是中高個位數的數字。

  • Joanna L. Geraghty - President & COO

    Joanna L. Geraghty - President & COO

  • Yes. I think the staffing number is around 24,000. They will stay, I would say, roughly in line. I mean at this point, we're really hiring for just that sort of mid to -- mid-single-digit growth. And so part of what you saw from kind of 2020, '21 through today was really ramping up. We also obviously have had some elevated levels of attrition, so we'll continue to hire there. But it's largely backfilling and then just small incremental growth associated with our capacity growth.

    是的。我認為員工人數約為 24,000 人。我會說,他們將保持大致一致。我的意思是,在這一點上,我們真的在招聘中位數到中位數的增長。因此,從 2020 年到今天,您所看到的部分情況確實在增加。顯然,我們的員工流失率也有所提高,因此我們將繼續在那裡招聘。但它主要是回填,然後只是與我們的容量增長相關的小幅增量增長。

  • James Edward Brazier Hollins - Senior Transport Analyst

    James Edward Brazier Hollins - Senior Transport Analyst

  • And again, I expect I know the answer to this, but does your Atlantic strategy change at all with the Spirit deal being landed and also in mind of the ramp-up in Heathrow costs?

    再說一次,我希望我知道這個問題的答案,但是隨著 Spirit 交易的達成以及希思羅機場成本的增加,你的大西洋戰略是否會發生變化?

  • Robin N. Hayes - CEO & Director

    Robin N. Hayes - CEO & Director

  • No, it's unchanged. I mean our -- as we think about Europe, it's really flying to the markets in Europe that are most important to New York and Boston, so for example, London and others to follow. We're really looking at the Spirit transaction to help grow our footprint outside of the Northeast. To Helane's point, we like our New York -- we like our Northeast geography. It's very important that JetBlue stays relevant in these markets in order to drive long-term margin success.

    不,它沒有改變。我的意思是我們的 - 當我們考慮歐洲時,它確實飛向了對紐約和波士頓最重要的歐洲市場,例如倫敦和其他市場。我們真的在關注 Spirit 交易,以幫助擴大我們在東北以外的足跡。在 Helane 看來,我們喜歡我們的紐約——我們喜歡我們的東北地區。捷藍航空在這些市場中保持相關性以推動長期利潤成功,這一點非常重要。

  • As Joanna mentioned, despite the very strong revenue guide into Q3, New York is still ramping up. We added a lot of capacity over the summer. And as we all know, as you add that, it takes some time to ramp up, so I think good legs on that still. And whilst Heathrow cost increases have gone up, it is a very small part of our network. And as we add Boston, it will be 2 departures and arrivals a day, and so sort of de minimis really in terms of the overall impact.

    正如喬安娜所說,儘管第三季度的收入指南非常強勁,但紐約仍在增長。我們在夏天增加了很多容量。眾所周知,正如您所補充的那樣,需要一些時間來提升,所以我認為這仍然是一個不錯的選擇。雖然希思羅機場的成本增加了,但它只是我們網絡的一小部分。當我們加上波士頓時,每天將有 2 次出發和到達,就整體影響而言,這確實是微不足道的。

  • Jose Caiado

    Jose Caiado

  • James, go ahead. Did you have a follow-up?

    詹姆斯,繼續。你有跟進嗎?

  • James Edward Brazier Hollins - Senior Transport Analyst

    James Edward Brazier Hollins - Senior Transport Analyst

  • No. That was it.

    不,就是這樣。

  • Jose Caiado

    Jose Caiado

  • Great. Well, that's going to conclude our conference call for today. So thank you so much for joining us, and have a great day.

    偉大的。好吧,這將結束我們今天的電話會議。非常感謝您加入我們,祝您有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. That does conclude today's call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.

    謝謝你。這確實結束了今天的電話會議。謝謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。