英特爾 (INTC) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Q4 2018 Intel Corporation Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，大家好，歡迎參加英特爾公司2018年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）提醒各位，本次電話會議正在錄音。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. Mark Henninger, Head of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

現在我謹向大家介紹今天會議的主持人，投資者關係主管馬克‧亨寧格先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, operator. And welcome, everyone, to Intel's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2018 Earnings Conference Call. By now you should have received a copy of our earnings release and the earnings presentation. If you've not received both documents, they're available on our Investor website, intc.com. The earnings presentation is also available in the webcast window for those joining us online.

謝謝接線生。歡迎各位參加英特爾 2018 年第四季及全年財報電話會議。現在您應該已經收到我們的獲利報告和獲利簡報了。如果您尚未收到這兩份文件，它們可以在我們的投資者網站 intc.com 上找到。在線上觀看的朋友也可以透過網路直播視窗觀看業績報告。

I'm joined today by Bob Swan, Intel's Chief Financial Officer and interim CEO; Murthy Renduchintala, Group President of the Technology, Systems Architecture & Client Group and Chief Engineering Officer; as well as Navin Shenoy, Executive Vice President and General Manager of the Data Center Group. In a moment, we'll hear brief remarks from Bob followed by Q&A.

今天與我一同出席的有：英特爾首席財務官兼臨時首席執行官鮑勃·斯旺；技術、系統架構和客戶端集團總裁兼首席工程官穆爾蒂·倫杜欽塔拉；以及數據中心集團執行副總裁兼總經理納文·舍諾伊。稍後，我們將聽到鮑勃的簡短講話，然後是問答環節。

Before we begin, let me remind everyone that today's discussion contains forward-looking statements based on the environment as we currently see it and, as such, does include risks and uncertainties. Please refer to our press release for more information on the specific risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially.

在開始之前，請允許我提醒大家，今天的討論包含基於我們目前所見環境的前瞻性陳述，因此確實存在風險和不確定性。有關可能導致實際結果與預期結果存在重大差異的具體風險因素的更多信息，請參閱我們的新聞稿。

A brief reminder that this quarter, we have provided both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. Today, we will be speaking to the non-GAAP financial measures when describing our consolidated results. The earnings presentation and earnings release available on intc.com include the full GAAP and non-GAAP reconciliations.

簡單提醒一下，本季我們同時提供了GAAP和非GAAP財務指標。今天，我們將結合非GAAP財務指標來介紹我們的合併績效。intc.com 上提供的收益簡報和收益發布包括完整的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 調整表。

With that, let me hand it over to Bob.

那麼，就讓我把麥克風交給鮑伯吧。

Thanks, Mark. And thanks to Navin and Murthy who will participate in the Q&A later in the call.

謝謝你，馬克。感謝 Navin 和 Murthy，他們將在稍後的電話會議中參與問答環節。

Before I get into the results, I'll take a minute to address what I expect is a top of mind question: the status of Intel's CEO search. The board continues to evaluate candidates for what I believe is the biggest and best open job on the planet. They are proceeding with a sense of urgency while also ensuring that they make the right choice for this great company.

在公佈結果之前，我想花點時間來解答大家最關心的問題：英特爾執行長的遴選進度如何。董事會仍在評估候選人，我認為這是地球上最大、最好的空缺職位。他們以緊迫感推進這項工作，同時也確保為這家偉大的公司做出正確的選擇。

Meanwhile, Murthy, Navin, the entire management team and 107,000 employees have come together as a team to continue driving Intel's transformation to a data-centric company. Our 2018 results demonstrate the progress we made, and I'd like to share those results with you now.

同時，穆爾蒂、納文、整個管理團隊和 107,000 名員工團結一致，繼續推動英特爾向以數據為中心的公司轉型。我們 2018 年的成果證明了我們所取得的進步，現在我想與大家分享這些成果。

2018 marked Intel's golden anniversary. It was a truly remarkable year for a remarkable company. Full year revenue grew 13% and crossed the $70 billion mark for the first time, setting an all-time revenue record for the third consecutive year. Our data center, Internet of Things, Programmable Solutions, memory, Mobileye and modem businesses each set all-time full year revenue records.

2018年是英特爾成立50週年。對於這家卓越的公司而言，這真是非凡的一年。全年營收成長 13%，首次突破 700 億美元大關，連續第三年創下營收歷史新高。我們的資料中心、物聯網、可程式解決方案、記憶體、Mobileye 和數據機業務均創下了全年收入的歷史新高。

2018 was also a pivotal year in Intel's transformation to become a data-centric company, pursuing an expanded greater-than-$300 billion market opportunity. Intel's collection of data-centric businesses grew 20% in 2018 after adjusting for McAfee. The largest of our data-centric businesses, the Data Center Group, delivered record annual revenue of $23 billion, up 21% year-over-year on strong cloud demand and growing share with communication service provider customers. Our PC-centric business achieved 9% growth in 2018 as the PC market stabilized, and we gained share in modems.

2018 年也是英特爾轉型成為以數據為中心的公司，追求超過 3,000 億美元更大市場機會的關鍵一年。在剔除 McAfee 的影響力後，英特爾 2018 年以數據為中心的業務組合成長了 20%。我們最大的資料中心業務部門—資料中心集團，憑藉強勁的雲端需求和通訊服務供應商客戶份額的成長，實現了創紀錄的 230 億美元年收入，較去年同期成長 21%。2018 年，隨著 PC 市場趨於穩定，我們以 PC 為中心的業務實現了 9% 的成長，同時我們在調變解調器領域也獲得了市場份額。

While 2018 was a record year, we expected a stronger finish. Fourth quarter revenue of $18.7 billion was up 9% but short of our expectations as a result of a dramatically weakening modem demand, lower overall growth in China, cloud service providers absorbing capacity and a weakening NAND pricing environment. While revenue fell short, we exceeded our EPS outlook by $0.06 or about 5%.

雖然 2018 年是創紀錄的一年，但我們預期會有一個更強勁的收官。第四季營收為 187 億美元，成長 9%，但由於調變解調器需求大幅疲軟、中國整體成長放緩、雲端服務供應商吸收產能以及 NAND 定價環境走弱，低於我們的預期。雖然營收未達預期，但我們的每股盈餘超出預期 0.06 美元，約佔 5%。

We continued to deliver outstanding new products for our customers and previewed new innovations that position Intel to compete and win for years to come, and we also made significant progress in growth areas like AI, autonomous driving and 5G. I'll take a few minutes to give some specifics before we dive into the financial results.

我們繼續為客戶提供卓越的新產品，並預覽了新的創新技術，使英特爾能夠在未來幾年保持競爭力並取得成功；此外，我們在人工智慧、自動駕駛和 5G 等成長領域也取得了重大進展。在深入分析財務表現之前，我先花幾分鐘時間介紹一些具體情況。

Over the course of the quarter and culminating at CES, we highlighted breakthrough innovations that will be central to our product leadership for years to come. We outlined our product design philosophy, which combines 6 pillars of innovation: process technology, architecture, memory, interconnect, security features and software to consistently and reliably deliver leadership products that solve our customers' most challenging problems.

在本季以及 CES 展會上，我們重點介紹了突破性創新，這些創新將是我們未來幾年保持產品領先地位的核心。我們概述了我們的產品設計理念，結合了六大創新支柱：製程技術、架構、記憶體、互連、安全特性和軟體，以持續可靠地交付領先的產品，解決客戶最具挑戰​​性的問題。

One example of this design philosophy in action is our unique Foveros 3D packaging technology. Foveros enables active stacking of logic chiplets for the first time in the industry's history and lets us mix and match process technologies and architectures to deliver breakthrough products. The first such product, Lakefield, is slated for production in 2019.

這種設計理念的一個應用實例是我們獨特的 Foveros 3D 包裝技術。Foveros 首次實現了邏輯晶片的主動堆疊，這在業界歷史上尚屬首次，它使我們能夠混合搭配製程技術和架構，從而交付突破性產品。首款此類產品 Lakefield 計劃於 2019 年投產。

Lakefield features a 10-nanometer hybrid CPU architecture combining a Sunny Cove CPU core, 4 low-power Atom CPU cores, Gen11 graphics and more in a dime-sized product that enables the smallest PC motherboard ever possible. Foveros gives us tremendous design flexibility and paves the way for a myriad of devices and systems combining high performance, high density and low-power silicon process technologies.

Lakefield 採用 10 奈米混合 CPU 架構，將 Sunny Cove CPU 核心、4 個低功耗 Atom CPU 核心、Gen11 圖形等整合到硬幣大小的產品中，從而實現了有史以來最小的 PC 主機板。Foveros 為我們提供了巨大的設計靈活性，並為結合高性能、高密度和低功耗矽製程技術的眾多設備和系統鋪平了道路。

In the data center, we began shipping the new Cascade Lake family of high-performance Xeon processors with DL Boost for accelerated AI performance, hardware-based security mitigations and the first implementation of Optane DC persistent memory. Many of our data-center OEMs and cloud customers are now offering early trials of Intel Optane DC persistent memory, which is enabling entirely new usage models and improved system performance.

在資料中心，我們開始交付採用 DL Boost 加速 AI 效能、基於硬體的安全緩解措施以及首次實現 Optane DC 持久記憶體的全新 Cascade Lake 系列高性能 Xeon 處理器。我們許多資料中心 OEM 廠商和雲端客戶現在都在提供英特爾傲騰資料中心持久記憶體的早期試用版，這實現了全新的使用模式並提高了系統效能。

In client computing, we launched our new ninth gen Intel Core desktop product lineup for gaming and content creation, growth segments that demand Intel performance. We also previewed our upcoming 10-nanometer Ice Lake client CPUs, which will deliver unprecedented levels of integration, including DL Boost inference acceleration, WiFi 6, Thunderbolt 3 and Gen11 graphics, our first integrated GPU with a full teraflop of performance. Our 10-nanometer yields continue to improve, and Ice Lake remains on track to be in volume systems on retail shelves for the 2019 holiday selling season.

在客戶端運算領域，我們推出了面向遊戲和內容創作的全新第九代英特爾酷睿桌上型電腦產品系列，這些成長領域對英特爾的效能要求很高。我們還預覽了即將推出的 10 奈米 Ice Lake 用戶端 CPU，它將提供前所未有的整合度，包括 DL Boost 推理加速、WiFi 6、Thunderbolt 3 和 Gen11 圖形，這是我們首款具有完整 teraflop 性能的整合 GPU。我們的 10 奈米製程良率持續提高，Ice Lake 仍有望在 2019 年假期銷售季期間投入量產系統並上架零售貨架。

In Q4, we also made important progress in AI, 5G and autonomous driving. For artificial intelligence, we saw accelerating adoption of OpenVINO, our open-source tool kit for neural network optimization and the rapid deployment of AI-based Computer Vision. In addition to the strong adoption of OpenVINO by the developer community, we also launched several new products during the year, including our third-generation Vision processing unit.

第四季度，我們在人工智慧、5G 和自動駕駛領域也取得了重要進展。在人工智慧領域，我們看到了 OpenVINO（我們的開源神經網路優化工具包）的加速普及，以及基於人工智慧的電腦視覺的快速部署。除了 OpenVINO 受到開發者社群的廣泛採用之外，我們今年還推出了幾款新產品，包括我們的第三代視覺處理單元。

Our partners created a catalog of AI-based Vision accelerator cards with our VPU and FPGA products. While digital video was once a vertical within the IoT business, AI-based machine vision is becoming a critical horizontal capability that cuts across all IoTG verticals. And our leadership portfolio, both hardware and software solutions, is removing the barriers to deployment and accelerating IoTG's growth.

我們的合作夥伴利用我們的 VPU 和 FPGA 產品創建了一系列基於 AI 的視覺加速卡。數位視訊曾經是物聯網業務的一個垂直領域，而基於人工智慧的機器視覺正在成為一項關鍵的橫向能力，貫穿所有物聯網垂直領域。我們的領先產品組合，包括硬體和軟體解決方案，正在消除部署障礙，加速物聯網 (IoTG) 的發展。

We also highlighted a new AI product on our road map, the Nervana Neural Network Processor for Inference, or NNPI, which is designed to accelerate inference workloads and achieve the highest performance per watt in the industry. We expect NNPI to be in production this year.

我們還重點介紹了路線圖上的一款新的人工智慧產品——Nervana 推理神經網路處理器（NNPI），該產品旨在加速推理工作負載，並實現業界最高的每瓦效能。我們預計NNPI將於今年投入生產。

5G is another big opportunity for both our PC-centric and data-centric businesses. At CES, we unveiled the new 10-nanometer-based network system on chip, codenamed Snow Ridge, developed specifically for 5G wireless access and edge computing. Snow Ridge will bring Intel Architecture into wireless access base stations and allow more computing functions to be distributed out at the edge of the network. We expect to be in production on Snow Ridge in the second half of this year, which is also when we'll deliver our first 5G modem, the Intel XMM 8160 5G.

5G 為我們以 PC 為中心的企業和以數據為中心的企業都帶來了另一個巨大的機會。在 CES 展會上，我們推出了全新的基於 10 奈米製程的片上網路系統，代號為 Snow Ridge，專為 5G 無線存取和邊緣運算而開發。Snow Ridge 將把英特爾架構引入無線存取基地台，並允許在網路邊緣分散更多運算功能。我們預計今年下半年在 Snow Ridge 投入生產，屆時我們還將交付我們的第一款 5G 數據機——英特爾 XMM 8160 5G。

In autonomous driving and ADAS, mobilized effort to lead this revolution continues to build momentum with 28 new design wins and 78 vehicle model launches in 2018. In the fourth quarter, we announced plans to commercialize mobility as a service in Israel with Volkswagen and Champion Motors, making Mobileye's breadth of products, technologies and services unmatched in the industry.

在自動駕駛和高級駕駛輔助系統 (ADAS) 領域，引領這場革命的動員力量持續增強，2018 年贏得了 28 項新的設計項目，並推出了 78 款車型。第四季度，我們宣布了與大眾汽車和冠軍汽車在以色列開展行動移動服務商業化的計劃，使 Mobileye 的產品、技術和服務範圍在業界無與倫比。

Mobileye's products now span from open ADAS and AV compute platforms to turnkey vehicle retrofits to, ultimately, mobility as a service. And they are enabled by the industry's best vision algorithms and driving policy software, the groundbreaking RSS model for AV safety and REM real-time crowdsourced maps.

Mobileye 的產品範圍從開放的 ADAS 和 AV 運算平台到交鑰匙車輛改裝，最終擴展到出行即服務。它們得益於業界最佳的視覺演算法和駕駛策略軟體、突破性的自動駕駛汽車安全 RSS 模型以及 REM 即時眾包地圖。

At CES, we announced important progress for both RSS and REM. ITS, China's leading industry organization for transportation standards, approved a proposal to standardize RSS for the China market. We also completed the mapping of Japan's highway system, 25,000 kilometers of roads, using data harvested from a customer fleet of vehicles outfitted with EyeQ4 in just 24 hours.

在 CES 上，我們宣布了 RSS 和 REM 的重要進展。中國領先的交通運輸標準產業組織ITS批准了一項關於中國市場RSS標準化的提案。我們也利用從配備 EyeQ4 的客戶車隊中收集的數據，在短短 24 小時內完成了日本高速公路系統（25,000 公里道路）的測繪工作。

This is a task that would have previously required thousands of hours of driving and scanning using specialized vehicles. This sort of breakthrough is possible only with Mobileye's combination of technology and massive market scale, and it positions Mobileye to monetize ADAS and AV technology long before Level 4 and 5 autonomy are deployed at scale.

這項任務以前需要使用專用車輛進行數千小時的駕駛和掃描。只有 Mobileye 憑藉其技術和龐大的市場規模才能取得這種突破，這使得 Mobileye 能夠在 L4 和 L5 級自動駕駛技術大規模部署之前很久就實現 ADAS 和 AV 技術的商業化。

And REM will be monetized in areas beyond autonomous vehicles. We just announced a partnership with Ordnance Survey who use data collected via consumer vehicles outfitted with EyeQ4 to help utilities manage infrastructure.

REM的商業化應用將擴展到自動駕駛汽車以外的領域。我們剛剛宣布與英國地形測量局建立合作夥伴關係，他們利用配備 EyeQ4 的消費者車輛收集的數據來幫助公用事業公司管理基礎設施。

Looking back at 2018, it is abundantly clear that Intel's employees, the unstoppable engine driving our innovation, are more determined than at any point in our history to make Intel technology the foundation for the world's most important innovations and advances. Not only was it a record year from a financial perspective, we achieved major milestones in terms of our diversity and inclusion goals.

回顧 2018 年，我們非常清楚地看到，英特爾的員工——推動我們創新的不可阻擋的引擎——比我們歷史上任何時候都更加堅定地要讓英特爾技術成為世界上最重要的創新和進步的基礎。從財務角度來看，這不僅是創紀錄的一年，而且我們在多元化和包容性目標方面也取得了重大里程碑式的成就。

We reached full representation in our U.S. workforce 2 years ahead of our plan. We also achieved gender pay equity across our global workforce. And to celebrate 50 years of Intel, more than 68,000 employees volunteered approximately 1.5 million hours in the communities where we operate. I'm proud of what Intel employees achieved in 2018, and I am equally proud on how they responded to challenges.

我們比原計劃提前兩年實現了美國員工隊伍的全面多元化。我們也實現了全球員工隊伍的性別薪資平等。為了慶祝英特爾成立 50 週年，超過 68,000 名員工在我們營運所在的社區貢獻了約 150 萬小時的志工服務。我為英特爾員工在 2018 年所取得的成就感到自豪，也為他們應對挑戰的方式感到同樣自豪。

With that, let's turn to the financial results. The fourth quarter closed a record 50th anniversary year with strong data-centric and PC-centric growth. Revenue for the quarter was $18.7 billion, up 9% year-over-year. Our data-centric businesses were collectively up 9%, and our PC-centric business was up 10%.

接下來，我們來看財務業績。第四季以強勁的資料中心和個人電腦業務成長為創紀錄的 50 週年慶典畫上了圓滿的句號。本季營收為 187 億美元，年增 9%。我們的資料中心業務整體成長了 9%，PC 業務整體成長了 10%。

Operating margin of 35% was approximately flat with strong mix and continued spending leverage, offset by 10-nanometer cost and growth in our adjacent businesses. Strong business performance, spending leverage and a lower tax rate resulted in non-GAAP net income of $5.9 billion, up 14% year-over-year. EPS of $1.28 was up 18% year-over-year.

營業利潤率 35% 與上年基本持平，這得益於強勁的產品組合和持續的支出槓桿作用，但被 10 奈米技術的成本以及相鄰業務的成長所抵消。強勁的業務表現、支出槓桿作用和較低的稅率使得非GAAP淨收入達到59億美元，較去年同期成長14%。每股收益為 1.28 美元，年增 18%。

For the full year of 2018, we generated $14.3 billion of free cash flow; returned $16.3 billion to shareholders, including $5.5 billion in dividends; repurchased 217 million shares; and increased our buyback authorization by $15 billion. Free cash flow was $1.2 billion short of our October expectations due largely to an increase in accounts receivable.

2018 年全年，我們產生了 143 億美元的自由現金流；向股東返還了 163 億美元，其中包括 55 億美元的股息；回購了 2.17 億股；並將回購授權額增加了 150 億美元。由於應收帳款增加，10 月的自由現金流比我們的預期少了 12 億美元。

To summarize, we had a strong quarter and fantastic year with full year revenue up 13% or nearly $6 billion higher than our original forecast in January. Earnings per share was up 32%, and free cash flow was up 38% over last year. We're expecting another record year in 2019. And as a result of our continued growth, we are raising the dividend 5%.

總而言之，我們本季業績強勁，全年業績斐然，全年營收成長 13%，比我們 1 月的最初預測高出近 60 億美元。每股盈餘成長了 32%，自由現金流比去年成長了 38%。我們預計2019年將再次創下紀錄。由於公司持續成長，我們將股息提高 5%。

Our leadership products continue to win share in our expanded TAM as both our data-centric and our PC-centric businesses continued to grow in the fourth quarter. Our data-centric businesses were up 9% for the quarter as customers choose our performance products to move, store and process more data faster from the cloud to the edge. And our PC-centric business was up 10% as we saw continued strength in the commercial and gaming PC segments and regained modem share.

在第四季度，我們的資料中心業務和個人電腦業務均持續成長，我們的領導產品在擴大的目標市場中繼續贏得市場份額。由於客戶選擇我們的高效能產品來更快地將更多資料從雲端移動到邊緣，我們的資料中心業務在本季度成長了 9%。由於商用和遊戲 PC 領域持續強勁成長，並且重新奪回了調變解調器市場份額，我們以 PC 為中心的業務成長了 10%。

Moving to earnings. We generated solid EPS expansion in the quarter, up 18% year-over-year, and our operating income increased $580 million with operating margin approximately flat year-over-year in the quarter. Our EPS improvement was driven by growing demand for higher-performance products in the data center and client businesses, leading to higher volumes and ASPs, continued spending leverage, a lower tax rate and lower share count as a result of buybacks.

接下來是獲利部分。本季我們實現了穩健的每股盈餘成長，年增 18%，營業收入成長 5.8 億美元，營業利潤率與去年同期基本持平。我們的每股盈餘成長得益於資料中心和客戶端業務對高性能產品的需求不斷增長，從而帶動了銷售和平均售價的提高、持續的支出槓桿作用、較低的稅率以及股票回購帶來的股份數量減少。

Our focus on operational efficiency continues to produce strong results with 2018 spending as a percentage of revenue at 28.6%, down over 7 points since 2015 and meeting our 30% commitment 2 full years ahead of our goal. R&D is up $1.4 billion over the same period as we continue to increase investment in areas that will drive growth in our expanded TAM such as product leadership, artificial intelligence and autonomous driving. Over the last 3 years, we've grown annual revenue by more than $15 billion while adding less than $250 million in spending, resulting in a more than 25% increase in revenue per employee.

我們對營運效率的關注持續取得顯著成效，2018 年支出佔收入的百分比為 28.6%，比 2015 年下降了 7 個百分點以上，並提前兩年實現了 30% 的承諾。同期研發投入增加了 14 億美元，我們將繼續增加對產品領先地位、人工智慧和自動駕駛等領域的投資，以推動我們在擴大的潛在市場中的成長。過去 3 年，我們的年收入成長了超過 150 億美元，而支出增加不到 2.5 億美元，使每位員工的收入增加了 25% 以上。

Now some Q4 performance highlights by segment. The Data Center Group delivered another greater-than-$6 billion revenue quarter and a growing storage and networking CPU TAM that is greater than 30 million units. Revenue of $6.1 billion was up 9% year-over-year but below our October expectations.

以下是各業務板塊第四季業績亮點。資料中心集團再次實現了超過 60 億美元的季度營收，儲存和網路 CPU 的市場規模也持續成長，超過 3,000 萬台。營收為 61 億美元，年增 9%，但低於我們 10 月的預期。

Year-over-year growth decelerated as all 3 major verticals within DCG were impacted by weakness in China demand and as some CSPs moved to consume capacity put in place earlier in the year. Platform unit volume was up 9%, and ASPs were up 1%.

由於中國需求疲軟，DCG 的三大主要垂直產業都受到影響，同時一些 CSP 開始消耗年初投入使用的產能，導致年成長放緩。平台單元銷量成長 9%，平均售價成長 1%。

Our Xeon ASP grew mid-single digits as customers continue to transition to Xeon Scalable and a richer mix of higher-performance products. We also saw ASP expansion in our SoC products and much higher SoC volume as we continued to have success in network transformation. The higher SoC volumes resulted in more modest blended platform ASP growth.

隨著客戶不斷向 Xeon Scalable 和更豐富的高性能產品組合過渡，我們的 Xeon 平均售價實現了中等個位數的成長。隨著我們在網路轉型方面持續取得成功，我們的 SoC 產品平均售價也隨之提高，SoC 銷售量也大幅成長。SoC 產量的增加導致混合平台 ASP 成長較為溫和。

Non-CPU adjacencies were down 2%, driven by several large onetime deals in the fourth quarter of 2017 that did not repeat in the fourth quarter '18. Cloud revenue grew 24% year-over-year, decelerating from Q3 '18. Enterprise and government revenue declined 5% year-over-year on a very challenging compare versus fourth quarter 2017 and weaker China demand. Comms service provider revenue grew 12% year-over-year on continued MSS gains as customers choose to virtualize and transform their networks on Intel Architecture.

非 CPU 鄰近業務下降了 2%，這是由於 2017 年第四季的幾筆大型一次性交易在 2018 年第四季沒有重現。雲端業務營收年增 24%，成長速度較 2018 年第三季放緩。由於與 2017 年第四季相比面臨非常嚴峻的挑戰，加上中國需求疲軟，企業和政府營收年減 5%。由於客戶選擇在英特爾架構上虛擬化和改造其網絡，通訊服務提供商的收入年增了 12%，這得益於 MSS 的持續成長。

Our other data-centric businesses, IoTG, NSG and PSG, achieved solid growth in Q4, together were up 9% year-over-year or 13% excluding the Wind River divestiture. Our Internet of Things business had revenue of $816 million, down 7% or up 4% excluding Wind River, with operating profit of $189 million, down 27% year-over-year due primarily to supply constraints. Mobileye revenue was $183 million, up 43% over last year as design wins and ADAS adoption continue to accelerate.

我們其他以數據為中心的業務，IoTG、NSG 和 PSG，在第四季度實現了穩健增長，合計同比增長 9%，如果不包括 Wind River 的剝離，則增長 13%。我們的物聯網業務收入為 8.16 億美元，年減 7%，若不計入 Wind River 則成長 4%；營業利潤為 1.89 億美元，較去年同期下降 27%，主要原因是供應受限。Mobileye 的營收為 1.83 億美元，比去年成長了 43%，這得益於設計訂單的增加和 ADAS 的普及應用持續加速。

Our memory business delivered revenue of $1.1 billion, up 25% year-over-year due to strong data center growth and continued Optane adoption offset by a weaker NAND pricing environment. The shift of our data center and client SSDs to our 64-layer 3D NAND continues in both the data center and client businesses with volume mix greater than 75%. NSG was approximately breakeven for the year.

我們的記憶體業務營收達到 11 億美元，年成長 25%，這主要得益於資料中心的強勁成長和 Optane 的持續普及，但被 NAND 價格環境疲軟所抵消。我們的資料中心和客戶端 SSD 向 64 層 3D NAND 的轉變在資料中心和客戶端業務中持續進行，銷售量佔比超過 75%。NSG當年基本上實現了損益平衡。

As expected, Micron exercised its right to call Intel's interest in our joint venture IM Flash Technologies. This announcement does not change Intel's plans in the coming quarters, and the close of the call is at our discretion up to 1 year after the date of the call with a supply agreement that extends beyond the close. We have manufacturing options available and have been shipping a broad portfolio of Intel Optane technology products for more than a year. We will continue to expand our product line and lead the industry with this exciting new technology.

正如預期的那樣，美光行使了其權利，收購了英特爾在我們合資企業 IM Flash Technologies 中的股份。本次公告不會改變英特爾未來幾季的計劃，電話會議的結束時間由我們自行決定，最長可達電話會議日期後的 1 年，前提是供應協議的期限超過結束時間。我們擁有多種製造方案，並且一年多來一直在出貨各種英特爾傲騰技術產品。我們將繼續拓展產品線，並憑藉這項令人振奮的新技術引領業界。

PSG's revenues came in at $612 million, up 8% on strength in the data center and comms segments. We saw continued momentum in PSG's data center segment, up 50% over last year. In the Advanced products category, our 28-, 20- and 14-nanometer solutions grew an outstanding 70%. Operating profit was $162 million, up 4% year-over-year.

PSG 的營收為 6.12 億美元，成長 8%，這主要得益於資料中心和通訊領域的強勁表現。我們看到PSG的資料中心業務持續成長，比去年成長了50%。在先進產品類別中，我們的 28 奈米、20 奈米和 14 奈米解決方案實現了驚人的 70% 的成長。營業利潤為 1.62 億美元，年增 4%。

Finally, the Client Computing Group delivered another outstanding quarter with revenue of $9.8 billion, up 10% year-over-year. Commercial and gaming demand continued to be strong. The notebook segment grew 8% year-over-year. The desktop segment grew 3% year-over-year. Supply remained constrained, particularly at the value end of our product range. We are working closely with our customers to align demand with available supply while we add capacity, and we expect supply-demand balance to improve by midyear.

最後，客戶端運算集團又取得了一項出色的季度業績，營收達 98 億美元，年增 10%。商業和遊戲需求持續強勁。筆記型電腦市場較去年同期成長 8%。桌上型電腦市場較去年同期成長 3%。供應仍然受限，尤其是在我們產品系列的低價位產品方面。我們正與客戶緊密合作，在增加產能的同時，使需求與現有供應相匹配，我們預計到年中供需平衡將有所改善。

Client adjacencies grew 45% year-over-year, driven primarily by increased modem share gains. Though modem revenue fell significantly below our expectations as a result of weaker smartphone demand.

客戶鄰近業務年增 45%，主要得益於調變解調器市場佔有率的成長。儘管由於智慧型手機需求疲軟，調變解調器收入遠低於我們的預期。

Our operating profit grew $402 million year-over-year with operating margin up 1 point. While our PC volumes were down 2%, our leadership product performance and segmentation contributed to strong mix.

我們的營業利潤年增 4.02 億美元，營業利潤率提高了 1 個百分點。雖然我們的個人電腦銷售下降了 2%，但我們領先的產品表現和細分市場促成了強勁的產品組合。

The investments we have made in the business organically and through acquisition are delivering excellent cash flow generation. For 2018, we generated $29.4 billion in cash from operations. We invested $15.2 billion in capital expenditures and delivered $14.3 billion in free cash flow, up 38% year-on-year and closing the gap versus EPS by 4.5 points. During this period, we returned 114% of our free cash flow to our shareholders. Buybacks totaled $10.7 billion, and dividends totaled $5.5 billion. In addition, settlements of our convertible debt reduced fully diluted shares by 40 million.

我們透過自身發展和收購對業務的投資，帶來了優異的現金流。2018年，我們從經營活動中獲得了294億美元的現金。我們在資本支出方面投入了 152 億美元，實現了 143 億美元的自由現金流，年增 38%，與每股盈餘的差距縮小了 4.5 個百分點。在此期間，我們將自由現金流的 114% 回饋給了股東。股票回購總額為 107 億美元，股利總額為 55 億美元。此外，我們可轉換債務的結算使完全稀釋後的股份減少了 4,000 萬股。

To wrap up with our full year results, we ended 2018, our 50th anniversary year, with our third consecutive year of record results, revenue of $70.8 billion, up 13% year-on-year driven by 20% growth in our data-centric businesses and 9% growth in our PC-centric businesses. We started the year in January expecting to generate $65 billion in revenue, 30% operating margin and $3.55 in EPS.

最後總結一下我們的全年業績。 2018 年是公司成立 50 週年，我們連續第三年創下業績紀錄，營收達到 708 億美元，年增 13%，這主要得益於我們以數據為中心的業務增長了 20%，以及以 PC 為中心的業務增長了 9%。今年一月，我們預計營收將達到 650 億美元，營業利潤率為 30%，每股收益為 3.55 美元。

The growth that we and the industry have seen has been remarkable. We ended the year approximately $6 billion higher in revenue with operating margin of 35% and $4.58 in EPS. Operating income of $25 billion was up 25% on strong execution across the businesses and disciplined spending.

我們和整個產業都取得了顯著的成長。我們全年營收成長約 60 億美元，營業利潤率為 35%，每股收益為 4.58 美元。由於各業務部門的強勁執行力和嚴格的支出控制，營業收入達到 250 億美元，成長 25%。

In October, we provided a preview of our outlook for 2019. At the time, we described a combination of tailwinds and headwinds that were balanced. The tailwinds were an expanded and growing TAM, product momentum and business mix. The headwinds were tougher compares following an especially strong 2018 and increasingly competitive environment in global trade.

10 月份，我們發布了 2019 年展望。當時，我們描述了順風和逆風相互平衡的情況。有利因素包括不斷擴大和成長的潛在市場規模、產品發展動能和業務組合。與 2018 年強勁的成長勢頭和日益激烈的全球貿易競爭環境相比，今年的不利因素更加嚴峻。

Since that time, trade and macro concerns, especially in China, have intensified. Cloud service providers shifted from building capacity to absorbing capacity, and the NAND pricing environment has further deteriorated. Those incremental headwinds are impacting our revenue expectations and slightly reducing our operating margin percentage forecast. The remaining factors are roughly consistent with our October assessment.

自那時以來，貿易​​和宏觀經濟方面的擔憂，尤其是在中國，加劇了。雲端服務供應商從建置容量轉向吸收容量，NAND 定價環境進一步惡化。這些日益加劇的不利因素正在影響我們的收入預期，並略微降低了我們的營業利潤率預測。其餘因素與我們10月的評估大致一致。

Now turning to our outlook for 2019. We expect 2019 to be another record year for us as the world's appetite for the analysis, transmission and storage of data continues to grow. We are forecasting revenue of approximately $71.5 billion, up 1% year-on-year, and operating margin of approximately 34%, down less than a point year-on-year.

現在讓我們展望一下2019年。我們預計 2019 年將是我們另一個創紀錄的年份，因為世界對資料分析、傳輸和儲存的需求持續成長。我們預測營收約 715 億美元，年增 1%；營業利潤率約 34%，年減不到 1 個百分點。

We expect a modest decrease in gross margin percentage driven by the 10-nanometer ramp and the growth of our adjacencies. This will be partially offset by increasing OpEx leverage as we continue to make thoughtful tradeoffs and invest in R&D that will accelerate our growth and profitability. We expect the full year tax rate to be approximately 13.5%, following several beneficial discrete events in 2018, and we expect EPS of $4.60.

我們預計，受 10 奈米製程製程提升和鄰近技術發展的影響，毛利率將略有下降。我們將透過提高營運支出槓桿率來部分抵消這一影響，因為我們將繼續做出深思熟慮的權衡，並投資於研發，這將加速我們的成長和獲利能力。我們預計全年稅率約為 13.5%，這是由於 2018 年發生了一些有利的個別事件，我們預計每股收益為 4.60 美元。

We expect gross capital expenditures of $15.5 billion with logic spending up and memory spending down. The increase in logic CapEx reflects our effort to meet our customers' needs and avoid constraining their growth, while our investment in memory is focused on the sit-up of our independent technology development facility in New Mexico. And finally, we expect free cash flow of $16 billion, an increase of approximately 12%.

我們預計總資本支出為 155 億美元，其中邏輯電路支出增加，記憶體電路支出減少。邏輯資本支出的增加反映了我們為滿足客戶需求、避免限制其發展所做的努力，而我們對記憶體的投資則集中在提升我們在新墨西哥州的獨立技術開發設施。最後，我們預期自由現金流為 160 億美元，成長約 12%。

As we look to the first quarter of 2019, we are forecasting revenue of approximately $16 billion, flat year-on-year, excluding Wind River. We expect PC-centric revenue to be up low single digits on higher modem share and data-centric revenue to be down low single digits on broad weakness in data center and continued NAND pricing pressure. We expect operating margin of 29%, down 1 point year-over-year, with a decline in gross margin as a result of the 10-nanometer ramp and the growth of adjacencies, partially offset by increased spending leverage. We expect EPS of $0.87, flat year-on-year.

展望 2019 年第一季度，我們預測營收約為 160 億美元，與去年同期持平（不含 Wind River）。我們預計，由於調製解調器市場份額增加，以 PC 為中心的收入將實現個位數低增長；而由於數據中心整體疲軟以及 NAND 閃存價格持續承壓，以數據中心為中心的收入將下降個位數低增長。我們預期營業利潤率為 29%，年減 1 個百分點，毛利率下降是由於 10 奈米製程產能爬坡和相關業務成長所致，但部分被支出槓桿的增加所抵消。我們預計每股收益為 0.87 美元，與去年同期持平。

We expect 2019 to be our fourth record year in a row. We feel great about where we are and where we're going. Five years ago, we set out to transform Intel from a PC-centric company to a data-centric company. Today, our strategy, products and people are delivering on that ambition with strong growth, record results and the largest TAM opportunity in the company's history.

我們預計2019年將是我們連續第四年創下紀錄。我們對目前的處境和未來的發展方向都感到非常滿意。五年前，我們著手將英特爾從以個人電腦為中心的公司轉型為以數據為中心的公司。今天，我們的策略、產品和人員正在實現這一目標，實現了強勁成長、創紀錄的業績，並獲得了公司歷史上最大的市場規模機會。

I have been inspired and humbled time and time again by our employees' commitment to this company, their colleagues and our customers. And we're just getting started. I am convinced the board will close on a new CEO in the near future, and I believe the management team, myself and 107,000 employees will rally behind him or her to take this company to a whole new level. In the meantime, we will not be distracted by the void.

員工們對公司、同事和顧客的忠誠奉獻精神一次又一次地激勵我，也讓我深受感動。我們才剛起步。我確信董事會將在不久的將來選定新的首席執行官，而且我相信管理團隊、我本人以及 107,000 名員工都會團結在他/她周圍，帶領公司邁向一個全新的高度。同時，我們不會被虛無所干擾。

With that, let me turn it over back to Mark, and we'll get to your questions.

那麼，現在我把麥克風交還給馬克，我們來回答你的問題。

Okay. Thank you, Bob. Moving on now to the Q&A. (Operator Instructions) Operator, please introduce our first questioner.

好的。謝謝你，鮑伯。接下來進入問答環節。（操作員指示）操作員，請介紹我們的第一位提問者。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from John Pitzer with Credit Suisse.

（操作說明）我們的第一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰‧皮策。

Just relative to the DC -- the data-centric guidance for the full year of up mid-single digits year-over-year in calendar year '19, you did a good job kind of explaining what's causing the weakness in Q1, DCG and the NAND pricing.

僅就資料中心而言——2019 年全年資料中心業務指導方針預計將同比增長個位數中段，您很好地解釋了第一季疲軟的原因、資料中心成長和 NAND 定價。

But as you look throughout the year from a minus kind of low single digits to full year being mid-single-digit growth, you are kind of looking for an acceleration against what becomes harder year-over-year compares in the June and September time frame at least.

但綜觀全年，從負個位數的低成長率到全年個位數的中等成長率，你會看到成長速度有所加快，但至少在 6 月和 9 月期間，同比數據會變得更加難以比較。

I'm just kind of curious if you can help us frame how you think that that reacceleration occurs. How long of a pause are you seeing with the cloud customers? And importantly, how are you thinking about increased competition in '19 in the data-centric businesses, especially in the server business, as you think about mid-single-digit year-over-year growth?

我只是有點好奇，您能否幫我們解釋一下您認為這種重新加速是如何發生的。雲端客戶的業務暫停期有多長？更重要的是，您如何看待 2019 年資料中心業務（尤其是伺服器業務）競爭加劇的情況，因為您預計這些業務將實現個位數的年增長率？

Yes. Thanks for your one question, John. I'll take a stab, and then Navin is here with me as well, I'm sure he has a few comments. First, I would say that since we look at just overall demand for the data center environment, the end user demand by consumers and by enterprises, the workloads that we're seeing, the continued growth in workloads, we are as excited about the future as we've ever been. So we feel pretty good about the medium and long-term trends.

是的。謝謝你提出的問題，約翰。我來試著說說，納文也在這裡，我相信他也會有一些看法。首先，我想說，如果我們只關注資料中心環境的整體需求，包括消費者和企業的最終用戶需求、我們看到的工作負載以及工作負載的持續成長，我們對未來充滿信心，一如既往。因此，我們對中長期趨勢感到相當樂觀。

As you know, in 2018, our growth rate, particularly in the cloud, was up 45% through the first 9 months of the year. So what we saw in the fourth quarter was -- as I had mentioned, we saw a little bit of consumption going on.

如您所知，2018 年前 9 個月，我們的成長率，尤其是在雲端運算領域，成長了 45%。所以，正如我之前提到的，我們在第四季看到的是，消費出現了一些成長。

As you know, the purchases are done in -- kind of in cycles, massive purchases through the first 9 months. And we started to see some of those purchases consumed in the fourth quarter. And we end the year, we think, with inventory levels on the server side of the business just a little bit higher than they had been historically.

如你所知，採購是按週期進行的，前 9 個月會進行大規模採購。我們開始看到其中一些採購在第四季被消費掉。我們認為，到年底時，公司伺服器端的庫存水準將比歷史水準略高一些。

So as we project forward in the first 6 months of the year, we think that it's going to continue to be both consumption on the server side and pricing in the NSG environment to be down through the first 6 months. And consistent with kind of historical patterns, we do expect the purchasing to start picking up again in the second half of the year. That's kind of how we see it. Long -- medium, long-term, we feel great, massive buying in the first 9 months. The buying slowed a bit in the fourth quarter, and we expect that to continue through the first 6 months.

因此，展望今年前六個月，我們認為伺服器端的消耗量和 NSG 環境中的定價都將在前六個月繼續下降。根據歷史規律，我們預計下半年購買力將再次開始回升。我們大致也是這麼看的。從中長期來看，我們感覺非常好，前 9 個月將進行大規模買入。第四季購買活動有所放緩，我們預計這種情況將持續到前 6 個月。

I think just -- I think the last part of your question, I think just competitively, then I'll tick it over to Navin, look, we're going into 2019 with every expectation to compete, to protect our share position across our entire business. So we're going to -- we're obviously investing in the capital required to ensure we don't constrain customers' growth. We're continuing to invest in R&D.

我認為——我認為你問題的最後一部分，我認為只是在競爭方面，然後我會把這個問題交給納文，你看，我們帶著十足的信心進入 2019 年，力求在競爭中保住我們在整個業務中的市場份額。因此，我們顯然會投資必要的資金，以確保我們不會限制客戶的成長。我們將繼續加大研發投入。

And third, we're going to invest to protect our competitive position, both on the PC side and the data-centric side. So yes, we expect competition to be stronger as we go through '19, but we're going to -- our guidance incorporates the fact that we're going to fight to protect our position. Navin, any...

第三，我們將加大投資，以保護我們在個人電腦領域和資料中心領域的競爭地位。所以，是的，我們預計 2019 年的競爭會更加激烈，但是——我們的指導方針包含了我們將為捍衛自身地位而戰的理念。納文，任何…

Maybe the only thing I'd add, John, is that from a product point of view, the dynamic to think about in 2019 is that, as Bob mentioned, we began shipping for production Cascade Lake, our next-generation Xeon. And really, that product is going to ramp -- start to ramp in the middle part of the year and into the second half of the year.

約翰，我唯一要補充的是，從產品角度來看，2019 年需要考慮的動態是，正如鮑伯所提到的，我們已經開始為生產環境交付 Cascade Lake，這是我們的下一代 Xeon 處理器。實際上，該產品的銷售量將會在年中和下半年開始逐步成長。

The design momentum looks very strong. The product features look very compelling. The AI capability we have with DL Boost, the support for Optane persistent memory, the security, hardware mitigation fixes, so that the customer momentum around that product line looks very strong.

設計勢頭非常強勁。產品特性看起來非常吸引人。我們憑藉 DL Boost 的 AI 功能、對 Optane 持久記憶體的支援、安全性以及硬體緩解修復，使得該產品線的客戶需求看起來非常強勁。

But it really doesn't ramp until the middle to the second half of the year. So as Bob said, the first half, a little bit tougher but second half, with product momentum as well as what we're hearing from our customers, we expect to be better in the Data Center Group.

但實際上，直到年中到下半年，這種情況才會真正加劇。正如鮑伯所說，上半年會比較艱難，但下半年，憑藉產品動能以及我們從客戶那裡聽到的回饋，我們預計資料中心集團的情況會好轉。

And our next question comes from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究公司的史黛西·拉斯貢。

To maybe generalize on that, if I just look through your guidance, you're basically guiding flat in Q1. And roughly flattish for the full year would suggest that overall, you're looking for a revenue trajectory in 2019 that's very similar to the trajectory you had in 2018, which was very, very strong sequentially, in many of the quarters.

總的來說，如果我只看你的指導意見，你基本上是建議第一季保持穩定。全年大致持平意味著，2019 年的營收走勢總體上與 2018 年非常相似，而 2018 年的營收在許多季度都實現了非常強勁的環比增長。

So I guess, what is the risk, just given everything that's going on that that may be too aggressive, especially as you had a number of drivers in 2018, both on the data center as well as on the client side, that aren't going to be repeating in 2019? Like how do we think about that?

所以我想，考慮到目前的情況，這樣做的風險是什麼？這可能過於激進，尤其是在 2018 年，資料中心和用戶端都出現了一些問題，而這些問題在 2019 年不會再出現。我們該如何看待這個問題呢？

Well, first, yes, 2018 was a great year, as we mentioned earlier, it grew during the course of the year. But a function, we believe, Stacy, is just the end demand for data. And we haven't seen that slow down at all. Again, on workloads, insights from our customer in the industry, workloads continue to grow. The demand for analytics for compute, for storage, for rapid retrieval, we think, only continues to grow.

首先，是的，2018 年是很棒的一年，正如我們之前提到的，它在這一年中不斷發展壯大。但我們認為，Stacy，函數只是對資料的最終需求。而且我們絲毫沒有看到這種趨勢放緩的跡象。再次強調，關於工作負載，我們從產業客戶那裡了解到，工作負載持續成長。我們認為，對運算、儲存和快速檢索等方面的分析需求只會持續成長。

And we believe that we have a very good position as we go into the year, including the products that Navin referenced. So we go into the year, we think, setting expectations in line with how we expect things to play out. And I would say today, our outlook is a little more cautious than it was a few months ago.

我們相信，進入新的一年，我們擁有非常有利的地位，包括納文提到的那些產品。因此，我們在新的一年伊始，會根據我們對事情發展走向的預期來設定期望。而且我認為，如今我們的展望比幾個月前要謹慎一點。

And we try to take into account both the macroeconomics, the geopolitical risk, the modest inventory build as we enter the year and the competitive environment. We've kind of taken those into account, reflected them the best we can as we go into the year, and we feel pretty good about how things stack up right now. And our expectation as we have in the past is to deliver on the commitments we make as we kick off the year.

我們努力將宏觀經濟、地緣政治風險、年初庫存適度增加、競爭環境等因素納入考量。我們已經把這些因素考慮在內，並盡我們所能地在新的一年中加以體現，我們對目前的情況感覺相當不錯。我們和以往一樣，期望能夠兌現我們在年初所做的承諾。

And our next question comes from Pierre Ferragu with New Street Research.

下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu。

I was surprised, Bob, on your CapEx guidance and especially on the memory side. So my understanding is that last year, you spent about $3 billion there, with about half of that money actually coming from your clients, so not being actually Intel capital being deployed.

鮑勃，我對你的資本支出指導，尤其是記憶體的指導感到驚訝。所以我的理解是，去年你們在那裡花了大約 30 億美元，其中大約一半的錢實際上來自你們的客戶，所以實際上並不是英特爾的資本投資。

So if you had $1.5 billion of Intel capital deployed in memory last year, if I look at your guide and seeing logic is slightly up, memory is going to be slightly down, so the actual Intel capital invested, deployed into memory this year is going to be up massively, maybe close to 2x. And that's in a year in which everybody in the value chain, everybody in the memory industry is actually pulling back on CapEx and limiting capacity addition. So I'd love to understand how you see that and how you position Intel this year in memory.

所以，如果去年英特爾在記憶體領域投入了 15 億美元的資金，如果我查看你的指南，發現邏輯電路略有增長，內存電路略有下降，那麼今年英特爾實際投入內存的資金將會大幅增長，可能接近 2 倍。而且，在這一年裡，價值鏈上的每個人，儲存產業的每個人，實際上都在削減資本支出並限制產能成長。所以我很想了解您對此有何看法，以及您如何看待英特爾今年在記憶體領域的定位。

Yes. First, just to maybe start with as we see kind of free cash flow for the year, we expect to be up $2 billion year-on-year with gross capital relatively flat. And I think you said this, but just to repeat, $15.5 billion going to $15.5 billion.

是的。首先，我們先來看看今年的自由現金流，預計將年增 20 億美元，而總資本相對持平。我想你之前也說過，但我再重複一遍，155億美元將變成155億美元。

During the course of '19, our expectations are, of that mix, that we'll be more logic-oriented. And that's really driven by a couple of things: one, ensuring we have the capacity to meet the 14-nanometer demand for our customers; secondly, as we ramp 10-nanometer in 2019 and position for 10- in 2020, we'll invest additional capital there; and then third, obviously, our expectations are to continue to invest in next-node technology, in particular, 7-nanometer.

在 2019 年，我們預期在這種組合中，我們將更加重視邏輯。這主要受以下兩方面因素驅動：第一，確保我們有能力滿足客戶對 14 奈米製程的需求；第二，隨著我們在 2019 年提高 10 奈米製程產能，並為 2020 年的 10-10 奈米製程做好準備，我們將在此投入更多資金；第三，顯然，我們期望繼續投資於下一代奈米技術。

So logic capital is going to be going up year-on-year. And as we indicated, memory capital will be coming down. We put the capacity in place in Dalian during the course of '17 and '18, and our expectations are in 2019 that we have sufficient capacity for demand. However, we are going to be investing in our own capabilities, our self-sufficiencies for Optane product. So we will use some capital on building out Optane capacity, but memory capital will be a bit lower, gross capital will be a bit lower during the course of the year.

因此，邏輯資本將會逐年成長。正如我們之前指出的，記憶體資本將會下降。我們在 2017 年和 2018 年期間在大連建立了產能，我們預計到 2019 年，我們的產能將足以滿足需求。但是，我們將投資於我們自身的能力，實現Optane產品的自給自足。因此，我們將投入一些資金用於建立傲騰產能，但記憶體方面的資金會略低一些，年內總資金也會略低一些。

Our next question comes from Chris Danely with Citigroup.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的克里斯·丹利。

I'm going to shift to the expense line. So maybe give us a little more color on OpEx and gross margin trends and how you're going to hit the operating margin target.

我要轉到費用項目。所以，能否更詳細地介紹營運支出和毛利率趨勢，以及您將如何實現營運利潤率目標？

Yes. So first, gross margin. The qualitative context is we expect gross margin to come down modestly off of Q4 levels and a little bit more off full year '18 levels. And we do expect that that will be largely, although not completely, offset by spending as a percentage of revenue coming down again in 2019.

是的。首先，我們來看毛利率。從定性角度來看，我們預計毛利率將比第四季略有下降，比 2018 年全年水準略有下降。我們預計，2019 年支出佔收入的比例將在很大程度上（儘管不能完全）抵消這一影響。

I think just on the gross margin, the trends are going to be a little bit similar to what you've seen in the past, although we do expect a little bit less ASP -- gross margin improvement from ASP. We expect unit cost to be up a little bit, and that will be primarily as we ramp 10-nanometer. And then the mix dynamics of more memory and more modem will weigh on gross margin a bit. So year-on-year, we expect gross margins to come down a little bit.

我認為就毛利率而言，趨勢將與過去的情況有些類似，儘管我們預計平均售價（ASP）帶來的毛利率改善將略有減少。我們預計單位成本會略有上升，這主要是因為我們正在逐步提高 10 奈米製程的產能。然後，記憶體和數據機數量的增加會對毛利率產生一定影響。因此，我們預計毛利率將同比略有下降。

On spending, as you know, we kind of -- we exit this year with spending levels down in the -- 26% in the fourth quarter and a little under 29% for the full year. So we're way ahead of our -- the 3-year plans that we laid out a couple of years ago, and we feel pretty good about the progress we made on the spending. And we've done it without cutting R&D.

如您所知，今年第四季支出水準下降了 26%，全年支出水準下降了近 29%。所以，我們遠遠領先幾年前製定的三年計劃，我們對支出方面的進展感到非常滿意。而且我們做到了，也沒有削減研發投入。

During that time frame, R&D has grown. We've been investing in the right things. Those things are growing faster. As a result, spending has come down 700 points from 2015 levels. As we go into 2019, spending overall, we expect to come down.

在此期間，研發投入有所成長。我們一直在投資正確的事情。這些東西成長速度更快。因此，支出比 2015 年的水準下降了 700 個百分點。進入 2019 年，我們預計整體支出將會下降。

Some things we did during the course of the second half of '18, including the exit of -- we exited Wind River. We exited wearables. We exited some of our new technology, small little businesses. We exited those businesses in the second half of the year, and we did some restructuring in the second half of the year. So as we go into '18, all that benefit from a relatively low Q4 $4.9 billion run rate, we expect that spending for the full year will be down year-on-year.

我們在 2018 年下半年做了一些事情，包括退出——我們退出了風河公司。我們退出了穿戴式裝置領域。我們退出了一些我們擁有的新技術和小型企業。我們在下半年退出了這些業務，並在下半年進行了一些重組。因此，進入 2018 年，由於第四季度相對較低的 49 億美元運行率，我們預計全年支出將同比下降。

So you net all that together and we have a -- we've been really focused on growing the operating income dollars of the company. We're not -- we focus on, but we're not preoccupied, with where the gross margin's going to land. Our focus has been on how do we grow the operating income dollars of the company. And in a relatively small growth year, we see keeping operating margins at 34% to be in a relatively good place without cheating the investments we need to make to continue to progress into '19 and '20.

所以把所有這些加起來，我們就得到了——我們一直非常專注於提高公司的營業收入。我們並非——我們關注毛利率最終會達到多少，但我們不會過分在意。我們一直關注的是如何提高公司的營業收入。在成長相對較小的一年裡，我們認為將營業利潤率保持在 34% 是一個相對不錯的水平，同時又不影響我們為繼續在 2019 年和 2020 年取得進步而需要進行的投資。

And our next question comes from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅斯·西摩。

Just wanted to follow up, Bob, you gave a lot of great detail there on the margin side, especially on the OpEx side. I wanted to go right back to the gross margin side, though. And somewhat simplistically perhaps, but you kept the gross margin guide basically the same as you did at the end of last quarter despite the headwinds to mix seemingly with your data centric commentary and data center being worse and your revenue being lower.

Bob，我只是想跟進一下，你剛才在利潤率方面提供了很多很好的細節，尤其是在營運支出方面。不過，我還是想回到毛利率這邊來。或許有些過於簡單化，但儘管面臨諸多不利因素，包括資料中心狀況惡化以及收入下降，你仍然基本上保持了與上個季度末相同的毛利率預期。

So is there any more color you can give on the puts and takes that leads to just the modest decrease given those other variables that seem like they have increased as headwinds from when you last talked about gross margin in '19?

那麼，鑑於其他一些變數似乎比您上次在 2019 年談到毛利率時有所增加，導致毛利率僅出現小幅下降的原因，您能否再詳細解釋一下？

Yes. The gross margin, Ross, isn't really any different. The puts and takes back then, as I indicated, were modest ASP growth. As we are going to fight to protect our market share position, we don't expect a lot of ASP growth. Again, 10-nanometer ramp, not really any different.

是的。羅斯，毛利率其實也沒有什麼不同。正如我之前提到的，當時的買賣交易對平均售價成長幅度不大。由於我們將全力捍衛市場份額，因此我們預計平均售價不會有太大成長。同樣是 10 奈米斜坡，其實沒什麼差別。

I highlighted in the prepared remarks, we feel very good about kind of where we are in ramping 10-nanometer during the course of the year to get systems on the shelf for the holiday season, so no real change there. And modem and memory growth will be a little bit slower today versus where we were 90 days ago. So, on the operating margin -- or operating margin percent, that's a slight positive.

我在準備好的演講稿中強調，我們對今年 10 奈米製程的快速推進感到非常滿意，以便在假期前將系統上架銷售，所以這方面沒有什麼真正的變化。與 90 天前相比，如今調變解調器和記憶體的成長速度會稍慢一些。所以，就營業利益率而言──或者說營業利潤率百分比，這是一個略微正面的訊號。

The real only change from 90 days ago is just we're a little more cautious on our revenue outlook, and our spending hasn't really changed. So we got a slight -- not as much leverage that we expected back in October but still good spending leverage during the course of the year. So not really any different on the gross margin and spending dynamics that we thought 90 days ago except a little less leverage on the spending line.

與 90 天前相比，真正的唯一變化是我們對收入前景更加謹慎了一些，而我們的支出並沒有真正改變。因此，我們獲得了一些槓桿作用——雖然沒有我們在 10 月預期的那麼大，但今年內仍然擁有良好的支出槓桿作用。所以，毛利率和支出動態與我們 90 天前預想的並沒有什麼不同，只是支出方面的槓桿作用略有降低。

Our next question comes from Vivek Arya with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

下一個問題來自美國銀行美林證券的維韋克·阿亞。

Within DCG, how should we think about the mix, cloud versus comms versus enterprise for Q1 and 2019?

在資料中心集團 (DCG) 內部，我們應該如何考慮 2019 年第一季和 2019 年的雲端、通訊和企業三者之間的關係？

Yes. Thanks, Vivek, Navin here. Look, we've been -- over the last 18 months, been working hard to diversify the end customer segment mix inside of DCG, and there's 3 large components: the enterprise and government segment, the cloud segment and the comms segment.

是的。謝謝維韋克，我是納文。你看，在過去的 18 個月裡，我們一直在努力使 DCG 內部的終端客戶群構成多樣化，它包含 3 個主要部分：企業和政府部門、雲端部門和通訊部門。

Cloud and comms is about 2/3 of the business now, where it was about 1/3 several years ago. And so I don't see any major changes to the way things play out in terms of where the growth will come from as we look into 2019 and beyond. While the first half in the cloud will be a little bit tougher, we do expect that cloud continues to grow as they start to move and to build out again in the second half.

雲端運算和通訊業務目前約占公司業務的 2/3，而幾年前這一比例約為 1/3。因此，展望 2019 年及以後，我認為成長的來源方面不會發生任何重大變化。雖然上半年在雲端會稍微艱難一些，但我們預計隨著雲端在下半年開始遷移和重建，雲端將持續成長。

In comms segment, we continue to gain share in that segment, a large TAM where we have relatively small share. And as we grow our network SoC portfolio and as the market moves to 5G, we expect to continue to gain share.

在通訊領域，我們繼續擴大市場份額，這是一個巨大的市場規模，而我們在該領域的份額相對較小。隨著我們不斷擴大網路 SoC 產品組合，以及市場向 5G 過渡，我們預計將繼續擴大市場份額。

And in the enterprise and government segment, while we've seen stabilization there over the last 4 or 5 quarters, we're not really counting on the enterprise and government segment for growth. We do expect that enterprises will continue to make strategic choices about what to deploy on-premise and what to deploy in the cloud. And in general, that business is not one that we count on for growth. So in general, you'll see us continue to push on comms and cloud to drive growth, particularly in the second half of the year.

在企業和政府領域，雖然過去 4 到 5 個季度我們看到了該領域的穩定，但我們並沒有真正指望企業和政府領域會成長。我們預期企業將繼續做出策略選擇，決定哪些服務部署在本地，哪些服務部署在雲端。總的來說，我們並不指望這項業務能夠帶來成長。因此，總的來說，你會看到我們繼續加大對通訊和雲端運算的投入，以推動成長，尤其是在下半年。

Our next question comes from Chris Caso with Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Raymond James 公司的 Chris Caso。

Just wanted to receive an update on some of the CPU shortages that you've been experiencing, how you're progressing on alleviating the shortages, what effect that may have had on the Q4 results given that, I guess, there was some supply tightness at least coming into the quarter.

我只是想了解你們遇到的 CPU 短缺問題的最新進展，你們在緩解短缺方面取得了哪些進展，以及考慮到至少在第四季度開始時供應比較緊張，這可能對第四季度業績產生了什麼影響。

And then on that, with demand slowing a bit, is there any fear? Do you have any visibility about customers who may have attempted or succeeded in building some inventory amid those shortages?

那麼，鑑於需求略有放緩，人們是否會感到擔憂呢？您是否掌握任何信息，了解在物資短缺的情況下，有哪些客戶嘗試或成功地建立了一些庫存？

Yes. First, in the fourth quarter, just in terms of isolating how we prioritize our capacity, there were no shortages within the client business, prioritization of big core and, to a lesser extent, small core, lower value-oriented products.

是的。首先，在第四季度，就我們如何確定產能優先順序而言，客戶業務方面沒有短缺，優先考慮的是大核心產品，其次是小核心產品和低價值產品。

And so we did -- we do feel like we constrained a fairly healthy PC ecosystem in the fourth quarter. I think when the dust settles on PC TAM, our expectation is it was probably flat and our shipments were down 2%. That was a function of we delivered every product that we could right up through December 30 -- 31. So we did have some constraints on the ecosystem and on our customers during the course of the quarter.

因此，我們確實做到了——我們感覺我們在第四季度限制了一個相當健康的個人電腦生態系統。我認為，當 PC TAM 的塵埃落定之後，我們預計它可能會持平，而我們的出貨量下降了 2%。那是因為我們在 12 月 30 日至 31 日期間盡我們所能交付了每件產品。因此，在本季期間，我們的生態系統和客戶都受到了一些限制。

At the end of the year, Chris, I think inventory levels relative to the beginning of the year were a little bit higher, maybe a 1.5 weeks, 2 weeks higher as we entered the year. And our expectations for the year is the PC TAM is going to be relatively flat. And that, for us, is a good place to be.

克里斯，我認為年底的庫存水準相對於年初來說略高一些，可能比年初時高出 1.5 到 2 週。我們對今年的預期是，PC 市場規模將相對穩定。對我們來說，那是一個理想的狀態。

We're probably halfway through the PC refresh cycle. We feel things have been relatively flat during the year. Inventory levels in the channel is a little bit higher ending the year. For us, inventory levels were relatively low as you might imagine on CPU just because of the constraints we've been dealing with.

我們可能已經完成了PC更新換代週期的一半。我們感覺今年以來情況相對穩定。渠道庫存水準在年底略有上升。正如您所料，由於我們一直面臨的各種限制，CPU 的庫存水準相對較低。

Our expectation is, working with our customers, that we will be through the supply constraints as we exit the second quarter of the year. Again, we'll use the same prioritization of server, big core, small core. But we'll be a little bit short on some product mix and on small core until we get probably through to the second quarter. And that will constrain us a little bit on just overall growth in the first half of the year.

我們預計，透過與客戶的合作，我們將在今年第二季末克服供應限制問題。我們將繼續採用相同的優先排序，即伺服器、大核心、小核心。但直到第二季度，我們的部分產品組合和小型核心產品供應仍會略顯不足。這將在一定程度上限制我們上半年的整體成長。

And our next question comes from Harlan Sur, JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的哈蘭‧蘇爾。

Just wanted to get an update on 10-nanometer manufacturability. I know last quarter, the team mentioned that 10-nanometer yields where tracking 14-nanometer yields at a similar point prior to production ramp. Is the team still seeing good improvements in 10-nanometer yields? Are you still tracking 14-nanometer yield ramps? And can you just give us an update on early 7-nanometer development and manufacturability?

想了解10奈米製程的製造進度。我知道上個季度，團隊提到在量產爬坡之前，10 奈米製程的良率與 14 奈米製程的良率在相似階段就已接近。該團隊在 10 奈米製程的良率方面是否仍取得了良好的提升？你還在關注14奈米製程的良率提升情況嗎？能否簡單介紹一下7奈米製程技術的早期研發和可製造性進展？

Harlan, this is Murthy. I'll take that question. I can only add to what Bob said in his opening statements that we continue to make solid progress against our plan that we shared with you during the course of 2018. And as I said on the last call, I feel better about our traction today than I did 90 days ago.

哈蘭，我是默西。我來回答這個問題。我只能補充鮑伯在開場白中所說的，我們正繼續朝著我們在 2018 年與大家分享的計劃穩步前進。正如我在上次電話會議中所說，我對我們目前的進展比 90 天前更有信心。

So that continues to bode well for our product launch ambitions, which Bob summarized as having systems on the shelf for holiday season in 2019, with a barrage of products across all of our businesses to follow shortly thereafter.

因此，這對我們的產品發布計畫來說仍然是個好兆頭。鮑伯總結說，我們的產品發布計畫是在 2019 年假期季節推出系統，隨後不久，我們所有業務部門都將推出大量產品。

And I would like to take the opportunity to just remind everybody that at CES and in the analyst meeting we had at the end of last year, we did show 10-nanometers across the entire portfolio of our product ranges. We talked about Ice Lake clients, which clearly was top of mind in the early discussions, but we also talked about Lakefield, Bob mentioned that as well. We also -- Navin talked about 10-nanometers for Ice Lake server. And we also talked about 10-nanometers moving into our networking and 5G program, which we believe is going to be a big growth sector.

我想藉此機會提醒大家，在 CES 展會和去年年底的分析師會議上，我們展示了我們所有產品系列的 10 奈米製程。我們談到了 Ice Lake 的客戶，這顯然是早期討論中最重要的事情，但我們也談到了 Lakefield，Bob 也提到了這一點。我們也——Navin談到了Ice Lake伺服器的10奈米製程。我們還討論了 10 奈米技術如何應用於我們的網路和 5G 項目，我們相信這將是一個巨大的成長領域。

So the story is not just about 10-nanometer yields but 10-nanometer now being a key part of our entire product portfolio. And as I say, I think that, coupled with our focus on the pillars of technology that Bob talked about, in my mind, I think, puts our product portfolio looking forward in a pretty good position.

所以，這不僅僅是關於 10 奈米製程的良率，而是 10 奈米製程現在已成為我們整個產品組合的關鍵部分。正如我所說，我認為，再加上我們對鮑伯所談到的技術支柱的關注，在我看來，這使我們的產品組合在未來處於相當有利的地位。

So net-net, I think 10-nanometer is looking better now than at the last earnings call. It's broadly deployed across our portfolio. And that, in combination with the other technology gradients, that Bob talked about, we believe, sets us up for a pretty exciting product road map.

總的來說，我認為 10 奈米製程現在的前景比上次財報電話會議時要好。它已廣泛應用於我們的產品組合中。我們相信，這一點，再加上鮑伯提到的其他技術梯度，將為我們制定一個非常令人興奮的產品路線圖奠定基礎。

Our next question comes from Ambrish Srivastava with BMO.

我們的下一個問題來自BMO的Ambrish Srivastava。

Bob, I just wanted to go back to the NSG and the profitability in what was a really booming year for memory. Obviously, price has started to come down back half of the year, but NSG was barely profitable.

鮑勃，我只是想回到 NSG 以及那一年（那真是個充滿回憶的繁榮年份）的盈利情況。顯然，價格從上半年開始回落，但NSG幾乎沒有獲利。

So just from a CFO perspective, what is your tolerance level for having a business, a segment that could go into a deep cyclical downturn and -- not could, it is heading into a deep cyclical downturn. So how do you think about having a commodity within the Intel umbrella and, again, the risk -- not risk tolerance, the tolerance for lack of profitability? Just your perspective on that, please.

所以，從財務長的角度來看，您對一個業務部門或一個行業可能陷入深度週期性衰退（而且不是可能，而是正在走向深度週期性衰退）的容忍度是多少？那麼，您如何看待在英特爾旗下擁有大宗商品，以及由此帶來的風險－不是風險承受能力，而是對獲利能力不足的容忍度？請說說你的看法。

Yes. First, a couple of things. When we look at -- I mentioned this in the prepared remarks, and Murthy touched on it. When we look at the technologies that we believe are going to be imperatives going forward in this increasingly data-centric world: process, CPU architecture, interconnect, software, memory is a key component. And all the advancements in CPUs will be constrained if you don't have differentiated technology in memory. So we think that the role memory plays going forward is increasingly important.

是的。首先，有兩件事。當我們審視這一點時——我在準備好的演講稿中提到了這一點，穆爾蒂也談到了這一點。當我們審視那些我們認為在這個日益以資料為中心的世界中未來必不可少的技術時：製程、CPU架構、互連、軟體，記憶體是關鍵元件。如果沒有差​​異化的記憶體技術，CPU 的所有進步都將受到限制。因此，我們認為記憶在未來將扮演越來越重要的角色。

In terms of the -- just the CFO lens of having a commodity in the portfolio, I'm not too excited about it. And that's why the investments we're making in memory are for, what we believe, differentiated technology, both in the manufacturing process capabilities of 3D NAND but also the differentiated technology for Optane and the role that it plays, both on the PC side but, most importantly, for us on the data-centric side.

就財務長的角度來看，投資組合中包含大宗商品，我並不太興奮。這就是為什麼我們對記憶體的投資是為了我們認為具有差異化的技術，包括 3D NAND 的製造流程能力，以及 Optane 的差異化技術及其在 PC 領域，但更重要的是，對我們而言，在資料中心領域所發揮的作用。

So we're not particularly excited about commodities. When we make these investments, it's really geared towards products and technologies that are increasingly important and those technologies that are differentiated from kind of the core memory space that help us, in conjunction with the CPU, solve customers' problems.

所以我們對大宗商品並不特別感興趣。我們進行這些投資，主要是為了那些日益重要的產品和技術，以及那些與核心記憶體領域不同的技術，這些技術可以與 CPU 一起幫助我們解決客戶的問題。

I'll just maybe add one thing, it's Navin. As an example of that, the Optane persistent memory combined with Cascade Lake, Xeon plus Optane, that is a platform play. Optane persistent memory works uniquely with Xeon.

我可能還要補充一點，他是納文。例如，Optane 持久記憶體與 Cascade Lake、Xeon 和 Optane 結合，就是一個平台方案。Optane持久記憶體與Xeon處理器具有獨特的協同工作能力。

And as I think about and talk to customers about the massive amount of data growth we're seeing, the ability for us to uniquely tie those 2 assets together to solve customer problems is a differentiator for us and allows us to drive growth. And so to the extent we can exploit more of those kinds of opportunities, things get more exciting from a business unit GM point of view.

當我思考並與客戶討論我們所看到的大量數據成長時，我們能夠將這兩種資產獨特地結合起來解決客戶問題，這使我們脫穎而出，並使我們能夠推動成長。因此，從業務部門總經理的角度來看，如果我們能夠更多地利用這類機會，事情就會變得更加令人興奮。

And our next question comes from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的提摩西·阿庫裡。

Navin, I had a question for you, and sort of there seems to be a little bit of a different tone between what we hear from your cloud customers, the compute guys, you and the memory guys are seeing weakness, but the networking companies still sound fine. So is it just an inventory digestion of computer and servers? Or is there something structural happening there?

納文，我有個問題想問你，而且我們從你的雲端客戶那裡聽到的反饋似乎有點不同，計算部門、你和內存部門都看到了疲軟的跡象，但網絡公司的情況聽起來仍然不錯。所以這只是對電腦和伺服器的庫存清點嗎？或者說，那裡是否存在某種結構性問題？

Yes. I think, as Bob said, and I think we talked about a little bit, we had 3 quarters of really, really strong growth in 2018 in the cloud. And that was driven by a product cycle as well as a typical multiyear build-out pattern with Xeon Scalable.

是的。我認為，正如鮑伯所說，而且我們也稍微討論過，我們在 2018 年的三個季度裡，雲端運算業務實現了非常強勁的成長。這是由產品週期以及 Xeon Scalable 典型的多年建造模式所驅動的。

And if you look back at all the historical trends we've had in the cloud business, we've always said there's some lumpiness to the business. And there's periods where people build, and then there's periods where people consume. The signals we get from our customers is a period of build for compute is going to shift now to a period of consumption. And that started in the second half, in the fourth quarter, and we expect that to continue through the first half of the year.

回顧雲端運算業務的所有歷史趨勢，我們一直認為該業務存在一些波動性。有時人們會進行建設，有時人們會進行消費。我們從客戶那裡得到的訊號是，計算資源的建設期即將轉變為消耗期。這種情況從下半季第四季開始，我們預計這種情況會持續到上半年。

Secularly, over the long term, medium to long term, the cloud business is going to continue to grow. There's no doubt about that. Both the consumer cloud and the enterprise commercial cloud, we see both of those continuing to grow. And the appetite for compute, I think, is somewhat insatiable.

從長期來看，雲端運算業務將會持續成長。這點毋庸置疑。無論是消費者雲還是企業商業雲，我們都看到它們將繼續成長。我認為，人們對運算能力的需求似乎永無止境。

Bob talked about compute cycle growth. Our 5-year forecast for compute cycle growth, or MIPS growth, is 50% CAGR over the next 5 years. I see nothing slowing that down over the next number of years. So that would be how I'd kind of answer that one, Tim.

鮑伯談到了計算週期成長。我們對未來 5 年計算週期成長（或 MIPS 成長）的預測是 50% 的複合年增長率。我認為在未來幾年內，沒有任何因素會減緩這一趨勢。所以，提姆，我的回答大概就是這樣。

All right. Let me -- maybe if I could just close out, Mark. Look, we think 2018 was a great year. Our -- strategically, what it is we're trying to do and the opportunities we see are as strong, if not stronger, today heading forward as they've ever been. We think '19 for us is going to be another record year.

好的。讓我——或許我可以就此結束，馬克。你看，我們認為2018年是很棒的一年。從策略角度來看，我們正在努力做的事情以及我們看到的機會，即使不是比以往任何時候都更強大，仍然非常強大。我們認為2019年對我們來說將又是創紀錄的一年。

At the same time, we realize that first quarter is just going to be lower. And the practical reality is we got -- we think we have a reasonably good read on the level of inventory that's in the ecosystem. I'd say this particularly for we're getting better and better on the diagnostics around the DCG business. The Q4 to Q1 dynamics for DCG historically have been sequentially down 8% to 10%.

同時，我們也意識到第一季業績肯定會低於預期。而實際情況是，我們認為我們對生態系統中的庫存水準有了相當準確的了解。我想特別指出這一點，因為我們在 DCG 業務的診斷方面越來越做得越來越好。從歷史上看，DCG 第四季到第一季的業績環比下降了 8% 到 10%。

And the practical reality is, as we see it now, is that could be double in the first quarter. But that has nothing to do with the strength of the business, the product line portfolio we have coming and our excitement about delivering a real strong 2019 as we go forward. So thank you very much for joining us, and I'm sure we'll talk to you soon.

而實際情況是，正如我們現在所看到的，第一季這個數字可能會翻倍。但這與我們公司的實力、即將推出的產品線組合以及我們對在 2019 年取得強勁業績的信心毫無關係。非常感謝您的參與，相信我們很快會再次見面。

Operator, please go ahead and wrap up the call.

接線員，請結束通話。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes today's program, and you may all disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，感謝各位參加今天的會議。今天的節目到此結束，大家可以斷開連結了。祝大家今天過得愉快。