英特爾 (INTC) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Q4 2018 Intel Corporation Earnings Conference Call.

女士們，先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加 2018 年第四季度英特爾公司收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

（操作員說明）作為提醒，此電話會議正在錄音中。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. Mark Henninger, Head of Investor Relations.

我現在想介紹一下今天會議的主持人，投資者關係主管 Mark Henninger 先生。

Sir, you may begin.

先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝你，接線員。

And welcome, everyone, to Intel's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2018 Earnings Conference Call.

歡迎大家參加英特爾 2018 年第四季度和全年財報電話會議。

By now you should have received a copy of our earnings release and the earnings presentation.

到目前為止，您應該已經收到了我們的收益發布和收益演示文稿的副本。

If you've not received both documents, they're available on our Investor website, intc.com.

如果您沒有收到這兩個文件，可以在我們的投資者網站 intc.com 上找到它們。

The earnings presentation is also available in the webcast window for those joining us online.

在線加入我們的人也可以在網絡廣播窗口中獲得收益演示文稿。

I'm joined today by Bob Swan, Intel's Chief Financial Officer and interim CEO; Murthy Renduchintala, Group President of the Technology, Systems Architecture & Client Group and Chief Engineering Officer; as well as Navin Shenoy, Executive Vice President and General Manager of the Data Center Group.

今天，英特爾首席財務官兼臨時首席執行官 Bob Swan 加入了我的行列； Murthy Renduchintala，技術、系統架構和客戶集團總裁兼首席工程官；以及數據中心集團執行副總裁兼總經理 Navin Shenoy。

In a moment, we'll hear brief remarks from Bob followed by Q&A.

稍後，我們將聽到 Bob 的簡短評論，然後是問答。

Before we begin, let me remind everyone that today's discussion contains forward-looking statements based on the environment as we currently see it and, as such, does include risks and uncertainties.

在開始之前，讓我提醒大家，今天的討論包含基於我們目前所看到的環境的前瞻性陳述，因此確實包含風險和不確定性。

Please refer to our press release for more information on the specific risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially.

請參閱我們的新聞稿，了解有關可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的特定風險因素的更多信息。

A brief reminder that this quarter, we have provided both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures.

簡要提醒一下，本季度我們提供了 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標。

Today, we will be speaking to the non-GAAP financial measures when describing our consolidated results.

今天，我們將在描述我們的綜合結果時談到非公認會計原則的財務指標。

The earnings presentation and earnings release available on intc.com include the full GAAP and non-GAAP reconciliations.

intc.com 上提供的收益介紹和收益發布包括完整的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 對賬。

With that, let me hand it over to Bob.

有了這個，讓我把它交給鮑勃。

Thanks, Mark.

謝謝，馬克。

And thanks to Navin and Murthy who will participate in the Q&A later in the call.

還要感謝 Navin 和 Murthy，他們將在稍後的電話會議中參與問答環節。

Before I get into the results, I'll take a minute to address what I expect is a top of mind question: the status of Intel's CEO search.

在我進入結果之前，我將花一點時間來解決我期望的一個首要問題：英特爾 CEO 搜索的狀態。

The board continues to evaluate candidates for what I believe is the biggest and best open job on the planet.

董事會繼續評估我認為是地球上最大和最好的空缺職位的候選人。

They are proceeding with a sense of urgency while also ensuring that they make the right choice for this great company.

他們帶著緊迫感繼續前進，同時也確保他們為這家偉大的公司做出正確的選擇。

Meanwhile, Murthy, Navin, the entire management team and 107,000 employees have come together as a team to continue driving Intel's transformation to a data-centric company.

與此同時，Murthy、Navin、整個管理團隊和 107,000 名員工齊心協力，繼續推動英特爾向以數據為中心的公司轉型。

Our 2018 results demonstrate the progress we made, and I'd like to share those results with you now.

我們 2018 年的結果證明了我們取得的進展，我現在想與您分享這些結果。

2018 marked Intel's golden anniversary.

2018 年是英特爾的黃金周年紀念。

It was a truly remarkable year for a remarkable company.

對於一家非凡的公司來說，這是真正非凡的一年。

Full year revenue grew 13% and crossed the $70 billion mark for the first time, setting an all-time revenue record for the third consecutive year.

全年收入增長 13%，首次突破 700 億美元大關，連續第三年創下歷史收入記錄。

Our data center, Internet of Things, Programmable Solutions, memory, Mobileye and modem businesses each set all-time full year revenue records.

我們的數據中心、物聯網、可編程解決方案、內存、Mobileye 和調製解調器業務均創下全年收入記錄。

2018 was also a pivotal year in Intel's transformation to become a data-centric company, pursuing an expanded greater-than-$300 billion market opportunity.

2018 年也是英特爾轉型為以數據為中心的公司的關鍵一年，尋求擴大超過 3000 億美元的市場機會。

Intel's collection of data-centric businesses grew 20% in 2018 after adjusting for McAfee.

在調整邁克菲後，英特爾以數據為中心的業務在 2018 年增長了 20%。

The largest of our data-centric businesses, the Data Center Group, delivered record annual revenue of $23 billion, up 21% year-over-year on strong cloud demand and growing share with communication service provider customers.

我們最大的以數據為中心的業務數據中心集團實現了創紀錄的 230 億美元的年收入，由於雲需求強勁以及與通信服務提供商客戶的份額不斷增長，同比增長 21%。

Our PC-centric business achieved 9% growth in 2018 as the PC market stabilized, and we gained share in modems.

隨著 PC 市場的穩定，我們以 PC 為中心的業務在 2018 年實現了 9% 的增長，並且我們在調製解調器中獲得了份額。

While 2018 was a record year, we expected a stronger finish.

雖然 2018 年是創紀錄的一年，但我們預計會有更強勁的表現。

Fourth quarter revenue of $18.7 billion was up 9% but short of our expectations as a result of a dramatically weakening modem demand, lower overall growth in China, cloud service providers absorbing capacity and a weakening NAND pricing environment.

第四季度收入為 187 億美元，增長 9%，但由於調製解調器需求大幅減弱、中國整體增長放緩、雲服務提供商吸收容量以及 NAND 定價環境疲軟，低於我們的預期。

While revenue fell short, we exceeded our EPS outlook by $0.06 or about 5%.

雖然收入不足，但我們的每股收益預期超出了 0.06 美元或約 5%。

We continued to deliver outstanding new products for our customers and previewed new innovations that position Intel to compete and win for years to come, and we also made significant progress in growth areas like AI, autonomous driving and 5G.

我們繼續為客戶提供出色的新產品，並預覽了使英特爾能夠在未來幾年競爭和取勝的新創新，我們還在人工智能、自動駕駛和 5G 等增長領域取得了重大進展。

I'll take a few minutes to give some specifics before we dive into the financial results.

在我們深入研究財務結果之前，我將花幾分鐘時間提供一些細節。

Over the course of the quarter and culminating at CES, we highlighted breakthrough innovations that will be central to our product leadership for years to come.

在本季度的整個過程中，最終在 CES 上，我們強調了突破性創新，這將成為我們未來幾年產品領導力的核心。

We outlined our product design philosophy, which combines 6 pillars of innovation: process technology, architecture, memory, interconnect, security features and software to consistently and reliably deliver leadership products that solve our customers' most challenging problems.

我們概述了我們的產品設計理念，它結合了 6 大創新支柱：工藝技術、架構、內存、互連、安全功能和軟件，以始終如一、可靠地提供領先的產品，以解決我們客戶最具挑戰性的問題。

One example of this design philosophy in action is our unique Foveros 3D packaging technology.

我們獨特的 Foveros 3D 包裝技術就是這種設計理念的一個實例。

Foveros enables active stacking of logic chiplets for the first time in the industry's history and lets us mix and match process technologies and architectures to deliver breakthrough products.

Foveros 在業界歷史上首次實現了邏輯小芯片的主動堆疊，讓我們能夠混合和匹配工藝技術和架構，以提供突破性的產品。

The first such product, Lakefield, is slated for production in 2019.

第一款此類產品 Lakefield 計劃於 2019 年投產。

Lakefield features a 10-nanometer hybrid CPU architecture combining a Sunny Cove CPU core, 4 low-power Atom CPU cores, Gen11 graphics and more in a dime-sized product that enables the smallest PC motherboard ever possible.

Lakefield 採用 10 納米混合 CPU 架構，將 Sunny Cove CPU 內核、4 個低功耗 Atom CPU 內核、Gen11 顯卡等組合在一個角錢大小的產品中，使最小的 PC 主板成為可能。

Foveros gives us tremendous design flexibility and paves the way for a myriad of devices and systems combining high performance, high density and low-power silicon process technologies.

Foveros 為我們提供了巨大的設計靈活性，並為無數結合高性能、高密度和低功耗矽工藝技術的設備和系統鋪平了道路。

In the data center, we began shipping the new Cascade Lake family of high-performance Xeon processors with DL Boost for accelerated AI performance, hardware-based security mitigations and the first implementation of Optane DC persistent memory.

在數據中心，我們開始交付配備 DL Boost 的全新 Cascade Lake 系列高性能 Xeon 處理器，以加速 AI 性能、基於硬件的安全緩解措施以及首次實施 Optane DC 持久內存。

Many of our data-center OEMs and cloud customers are now offering early trials of Intel Optane DC persistent memory, which is enabling entirely new usage models and improved system performance.

我們的許多數據中心 OEM 和雲客戶現在都在提供英特爾傲騰 DC 持久內存的早期試用，這將支持全新的使用模式並提高系統性能。

In client computing, we launched our new ninth gen Intel Core desktop product lineup for gaming and content creation, growth segments that demand Intel performance.

在客戶端計算方面，我們推出了新的第九代英特爾酷睿桌面產品系列，用於遊戲和內容創作，以及需要英特爾性能的增長領域。

We also previewed our upcoming 10-nanometer Ice Lake client CPUs, which will deliver unprecedented levels of integration, including DL Boost inference acceleration, WiFi 6, Thunderbolt 3 and Gen11 graphics, our first integrated GPU with a full teraflop of performance.

我們還預覽了我們即將推出的 10 納米 Ice Lake 客戶端 CPU，它將提供前所未有的集成水平，包括 DL Boost 推理加速、WiFi 6、Thunderbolt 3 和 Gen11 圖形，這是我們第一個具有完整性能的集成 GPU。

Our 10-nanometer yields continue to improve, and Ice Lake remains on track to be in volume systems on retail shelves for the 2019 holiday selling season.

我們的 10 納米產量繼續提高，Ice Lake 仍有望在 2019 年假日銷售季的零售貨架上批量生產。

In Q4, we also made important progress in AI, 5G and autonomous driving.

第四季度，我們在人工智能、5G和自動駕駛方面也取得了重要進展。

For artificial intelligence, we saw accelerating adoption of OpenVINO, our open-source tool kit for neural network optimization and the rapid deployment of AI-based Computer Vision.

對於人工智能，我們看到 OpenVINO 的加速採用，這是我們用於神經網絡優化的開源工具包和基於 AI 的計算機視覺的快速部署。

In addition to the strong adoption of OpenVINO by the developer community, we also launched several new products during the year, including our third-generation Vision processing unit.

除了開發者社區對 OpenVINO 的大力採用外，我們還在這一年推出了幾款新產品，包括我們的第三代視覺處理單元。

Our partners created a catalog of AI-based Vision accelerator cards with our VPU and FPGA products.

我們的合作夥伴使用我們的 VPU 和 FPGA 產品創建了基於 AI 的視覺加速卡目錄。

While digital video was once a vertical within the IoT business, AI-based machine vision is becoming a critical horizontal capability that cuts across all IoTG verticals.

雖然數字視頻曾經是物聯網業務中的一個垂直領域，但基於人工智能的機器視覺正在成為一種關鍵的水平能力，貫穿所有 IoTG 垂直領域。

And our leadership portfolio, both hardware and software solutions, is removing the barriers to deployment and accelerating IoTG's growth.

我們的領先產品組合，包括硬件和軟件解決方案，正在消除部署障礙並加速 IoTG 的發展。

We also highlighted a new AI product on our road map, the Nervana Neural Network Processor for Inference, or NNPI, which is designed to accelerate inference workloads and achieve the highest performance per watt in the industry.

我們還在路線圖上重點介紹了一款新的 AI 產品，即 Nervana 推理神經網絡處理器 (NNPI)，該產品旨在加速推理工作負載並實現業內最高的每瓦性能。

We expect NNPI to be in production this year.

我們預計 NNPI 將在今年投入生產。

5G is another big opportunity for both our PC-centric and data-centric businesses.

5G 是我們以 PC 為中心和以數據為中心的業務的另一個重大機遇。

At CES, we unveiled the new 10-nanometer-based network system on chip, codenamed Snow Ridge, developed specifically for 5G wireless access and edge computing.

在 CES 上，我們推出了新的基於 10 納米的片上網絡系統，代號為 Snow Ridge，專為 5G 無線接入和邊緣計算而開發。

Snow Ridge will bring Intel Architecture into wireless access base stations and allow more computing functions to be distributed out at the edge of the network.

Snow Ridge 將英特爾架構引入無線接入基站，並允許更多計算功能分佈在網絡邊緣。

We expect to be in production on Snow Ridge in the second half of this year, which is also when we'll deliver our first 5G modem, the Intel XMM 8160 5G.

我們預計今年下半年將在 Snow Ridge 投入生產，屆時我們將交付我們的第一個 5G 調製解調器，即英特爾 XMM 8160 5G。

In autonomous driving and ADAS, mobilized effort to lead this revolution continues to build momentum with 28 new design wins and 78 vehicle model launches in 2018.

在自動駕駛和 ADAS 領域，引領這場革命的動員力量繼續形成勢頭，2018 年贏得了 28 項新設計，並推出了 78 款車型。

In the fourth quarter, we announced plans to commercialize mobility as a service in Israel with Volkswagen and Champion Motors, making Mobileye's breadth of products, technologies and services unmatched in the industry.

在第四季度，我們宣布計劃與大眾汽車和 Champion Motors 在以色列將移動即服務商業化，從而使 Mobileye 的產品、技術和服務的廣度在行業中無與倫比。

Mobileye's products now span from open ADAS and AV compute platforms to turnkey vehicle retrofits to, ultimately, mobility as a service.

Mobileye 的產品現在涵蓋從開放式 ADAS 和 AV 計算平台到交鑰匙車輛改裝，最終實現移動即服務。

And they are enabled by the industry's best vision algorithms and driving policy software, the groundbreaking RSS model for AV safety and REM real-time crowdsourced maps.

它們由業界最佳的視覺算法和駕駛策略軟件、用於 AV 安全的開創性 RSS 模型和 REM 實時眾包地圖支持。

At CES, we announced important progress for both RSS and REM.

在 CES 上，我們宣布了 RSS 和 REM 的重要進展。

ITS, China's leading industry organization for transportation standards, approved a proposal to standardize RSS for the China market.

中國領先的交通標準行業組織 ITS 批准了一項針對中國市場對 RSS 進行標準化的提案。

We also completed the mapping of Japan's highway system, 25,000 kilometers of roads, using data harvested from a customer fleet of vehicles outfitted with EyeQ4 in just 24 hours.

我們還使用從配備 EyeQ4 的客戶車隊中收集的數據在 24 小時內完成了日本高速公路系統 25,000 公里道路的測繪。

This is a task that would have previously required thousands of hours of driving and scanning using specialized vehicles.

這項任務以前需要使用專用車輛進行數千小時的駕駛和掃描。

This sort of breakthrough is possible only with Mobileye's combination of technology and massive market scale, and it positions Mobileye to monetize ADAS and AV technology long before Level 4 and 5 autonomy are deployed at scale.

只有 Mobileye 將技術與龐大的市場規模相結合，才能實現這種突破，而且它使 Mobileye 早在 4 級和 5 級自動駕駛大規模部署之前就可以通過 ADAS 和 AV 技術獲利。

And REM will be monetized in areas beyond autonomous vehicles.

REM 將在自動駕駛汽車以外的領域貨幣化。

We just announced a partnership with Ordnance Survey who use data collected via consumer vehicles outfitted with EyeQ4 to help utilities manage infrastructure.

我們剛剛宣布與 Ordnance Survey 建立合作夥伴關係，後者使用通過配備 EyeQ4 的消費車輛收集的數據來幫助公用事業管理基礎設施。

Looking back at 2018, it is abundantly clear that Intel's employees, the unstoppable engine driving our innovation, are more determined than at any point in our history to make Intel technology the foundation for the world's most important innovations and advances.

回顧 2018 年，很明顯，作為推動我們創新的不可阻擋的引擎，英特爾的員工比我們歷史上任何時候都更加堅定地讓英特爾技術成為世界上最重要的創新和進步的基礎。

Not only was it a record year from a financial perspective, we achieved major milestones in terms of our diversity and inclusion goals.

從財務角度來看，這不僅是創紀錄的一年，我們在多元化和包容性目標方面也取得了重要的里程碑。

We reached full representation in our U.S. workforce 2 years ahead of our plan.

我們比我們的計劃提前 2 年在美國勞動力中實現了充分的代表性。

We also achieved gender pay equity across our global workforce.

我們還在全球員工隊伍中實現了性別薪酬平等。

And to celebrate 50 years of Intel, more than 68,000 employees volunteered approximately 1.5 million hours in the communities where we operate.

為慶祝英特爾成立 50 週年，超過 68,000 名員工在我們運營所在的社區志願服務了大約 150 萬小時。

I'm proud of what Intel employees achieved in 2018, and I am equally proud on how they responded to challenges.

我為英特爾員工在 2018 年取得的成就感到自豪，我同樣為他們應對挑戰的方式感到自豪。

With that, let's turn to the financial results.

有了這個，讓我們轉向財務結果。

The fourth quarter closed a record 50th anniversary year with strong data-centric and PC-centric growth.

第四季度以數據為中心和以 PC 為中心的強勁增長結束了創紀錄的 50 週年紀念。

Revenue for the quarter was $18.7 billion, up 9% year-over-year.

本季度收入為 187 億美元，同比增長 9%。

Our data-centric businesses were collectively up 9%, and our PC-centric business was up 10%.

我們以數據為中心的業務增長了 9%，以 PC 為中心的業務增長了 10%。

Operating margin of 35% was approximately flat with strong mix and continued spending leverage, offset by 10-nanometer cost and growth in our adjacent businesses.

35% 的營業利潤率與強勁的組合和持續的支出槓桿基本持平，但被我們相鄰業務的 10 納米成本和增長所抵消。

Strong business performance, spending leverage and a lower tax rate resulted in non-GAAP net income of $5.9 billion, up 14% year-over-year.

強勁的業務表現、支出槓桿和較低的稅率導致非 GAAP 淨收入為 59 億美元，同比增長 14%。

EPS of $1.28 was up 18% year-over-year.

每股收益為 1.28 美元，同比增長 18%。

For the full year of 2018, we generated $14.3 billion of free cash flow; returned $16.3 billion to shareholders, including $5.5 billion in dividends; repurchased 217 million shares; and increased our buyback authorization by $15 billion.

2018 年全年，我們產生了 143 億美元的自由現金流；向股東返還 163 億美元，其中包括 55 億美元的股息；回購2.17億股；並將我們的回購授權增加了 150 億美元。

Free cash flow was $1.2 billion short of our October expectations due largely to an increase in accounts receivable.

自由現金流比我們 10 月份的預期少 12 億美元，主要原因是應收賬款增加。

To summarize, we had a strong quarter and fantastic year with full year revenue up 13% or nearly $6 billion higher than our original forecast in January.

總而言之，我們有一個強勁的季度和夢幻般的一年，全年收入比我們 1 月份的原始預測高出 13% 或近 60 億美元。

Earnings per share was up 32%, and free cash flow was up 38% over last year.

每股收益增長了 32%，自由現金流比去年增長了 38%。

We're expecting another record year in 2019.

我們預計 2019 年將是另一個創紀錄的一年。

And as a result of our continued growth, we are raising the dividend 5%.

由於我們的持續增長，我們將股息提高了 5%。

Our leadership products continue to win share in our expanded TAM as both our data-centric and our PC-centric businesses continued to grow in the fourth quarter.

隨著我們以數據為中心和以 PC 為中心的業務在第四季度繼續增長，我們的領先產品繼續在我們擴展的 TAM 中贏得份額。

Our data-centric businesses were up 9% for the quarter as customers choose our performance products to move, store and process more data faster from the cloud to the edge.

我們以數據為中心的業務在本季度增長了 9%，因為客戶選擇我們的高性能產品來更快地從雲端移動、存儲和處理更多數據到邊緣。

And our PC-centric business was up 10% as we saw continued strength in the commercial and gaming PC segments and regained modem share.

我們以 PC 為中心的業務增長了 10%，因為我們看到商用和遊戲 PC 領域的持續增長並重新獲得了調製解調器份額。

Moving to earnings.

轉向收益。

We generated solid EPS expansion in the quarter, up 18% year-over-year, and our operating income increased $580 million with operating margin approximately flat year-over-year in the quarter.

我們在本季度實現了穩健的每股收益增長，同比增長 18%，我們的營業收入增加了 5.8 億美元，營業利潤率在本季度同比基本持平。

Our EPS improvement was driven by growing demand for higher-performance products in the data center and client businesses, leading to higher volumes and ASPs, continued spending leverage, a lower tax rate and lower share count as a result of buybacks.

我們的每股收益改善是由於數據中心和客戶業務對高性能產品的需求不斷增長，導致更高的銷量和平均售價、持續的支出槓桿、更低的稅率和回購導致的股票數量減少。

Our focus on operational efficiency continues to produce strong results with 2018 spending as a percentage of revenue at 28.6%, down over 7 points since 2015 and meeting our 30% commitment 2 full years ahead of our goal.

我們對運營效率的關注繼續產生強勁的結果，2018 年支出佔收入的百分比為 28.6%，自 2015 年以來下降了 7 個百分點，並且比我們的目標提前 2 年實現了 30% 的承諾。

R&D is up $1.4 billion over the same period as we continue to increase investment in areas that will drive growth in our expanded TAM such as product leadership, artificial intelligence and autonomous driving.

同期研發增加了 14 億美元，因為我們將繼續增加對將推動我們擴展的 TAM 增長的領域的投資，例如產品領導力、人工智能和自動駕駛。

Over the last 3 years, we've grown annual revenue by more than $15 billion while adding less than $250 million in spending, resulting in a more than 25% increase in revenue per employee.

在過去 3 年中，我們的年收入增長超過 150 億美元，而支出增加不到 2.5 億美元，每位員工的收入增長超過 25%。

Now some Q4 performance highlights by segment.

現在按細分市場劃分了一些第四季度的業績亮點。

The Data Center Group delivered another greater-than-$6 billion revenue quarter and a growing storage and networking CPU TAM that is greater than 30 million units.

數據中心集團在另一個季度實現了超過 60 億美元的收入，並且存儲和網絡 CPU TAM 不斷增長，超過 3000 萬台。

Revenue of $6.1 billion was up 9% year-over-year but below our October expectations.

收入 61 億美元，同比增長 9%，但低於我們 10 月份的預期。

Year-over-year growth decelerated as all 3 major verticals within DCG were impacted by weakness in China demand and as some CSPs moved to consume capacity put in place earlier in the year.

由於 DCG 的所有 3 個主要垂直領域都受到中國需求疲軟的影響，以及一些 CSP 開始消耗今年早些時候到位的產能，因此同比增長放緩。

Platform unit volume was up 9%, and ASPs were up 1%.

平台單位銷量增長 9%，平均售價增長 1%。

Our Xeon ASP grew mid-single digits as customers continue to transition to Xeon Scalable and a richer mix of higher-performance products.

隨著客戶繼續過渡到 Xeon Scalable 和更豐富的高性能產品組合，我們的 Xeon ASP 增長了中個位數。

We also saw ASP expansion in our SoC products and much higher SoC volume as we continued to have success in network transformation.

隨著我們在網絡轉型方面繼續取得成功，我們還看到我們的 SoC 產品的 ASP 擴展和更高的 SoC 數量。

The higher SoC volumes resulted in more modest blended platform ASP growth.

較高的 SoC 銷量導致混合平台 ASP 增長較為溫和。

Non-CPU adjacencies were down 2%, driven by several large onetime deals in the fourth quarter of 2017 that did not repeat in the fourth quarter '18.

非 CPU 鄰接下降了 2%，這是由於 2017 年第四季度的幾筆大型一次性交易在 18 年第四季度沒有重複。

Cloud revenue grew 24% year-over-year, decelerating from Q3 '18.

雲收入同比增長 24%，較 18 年第三季度有所放緩。

Enterprise and government revenue declined 5% year-over-year on a very challenging compare versus fourth quarter 2017 and weaker China demand.

由於與 2017 年第四季度相比極具挑戰性以及中國需求疲軟，企業和政府收入同比下降 5%。

Comms service provider revenue grew 12% year-over-year on continued MSS gains as customers choose to virtualize and transform their networks on Intel Architecture.

由於客戶選擇在英特爾架構上虛擬化和改造他們的網絡，通信服務提供商的收入同比增長 12%，這得益於 MSS 的持續增長。

Our other data-centric businesses, IoTG, NSG and PSG, achieved solid growth in Q4, together were up 9% year-over-year or 13% excluding the Wind River divestiture.

我們的其他以數據為中心的業務 IoTG、NSG 和 PSG 在第四季度實現了穩健增長，合計同比增長 9% 或不包括風河剝離的 13%。

Our Internet of Things business had revenue of $816 million, down 7% or up 4% excluding Wind River, with operating profit of $189 million, down 27% year-over-year due primarily to supply constraints.

我們的物聯網業務收入為 8.16 億美元，不包括風河，下降 7% 或增長 4%，營業利潤為 1.89 億美元，同比下降 27%，主要是由於供應限制。

Mobileye revenue was $183 million, up 43% over last year as design wins and ADAS adoption continue to accelerate.

Mobileye 收入為 1.83 億美元，比去年增長 43%，因為設計獲勝和 ADAS 採用繼續加速。

Our memory business delivered revenue of $1.1 billion, up 25% year-over-year due to strong data center growth and continued Optane adoption offset by a weaker NAND pricing environment.

我們的內存業務實現了 11 億美元的收入，同比增長 25%，原因是數據中心的強勁增長以及 Optane 的持續採用被疲軟的 NAND 定價環境所抵消。

The shift of our data center and client SSDs to our 64-layer 3D NAND continues in both the data center and client businesses with volume mix greater than 75%.

我們的數據中心和客戶端 SSD 向我們的 64 層 3D NAND 的轉變在數據中心和客戶端業務中繼續進行，容量組合超過 75%。

NSG was approximately breakeven for the year.

NSG 在這一年中大致實現了盈虧平衡。

As expected, Micron exercised its right to call Intel's interest in our joint venture IM Flash Technologies.

正如預期的那樣，美光行使了調用英特爾在我們的合資企業 IM Flash Technologies 中的權益的權利。

This announcement does not change Intel's plans in the coming quarters, and the close of the call is at our discretion up to 1 year after the date of the call with a supply agreement that extends beyond the close.

該公告不會改變英特爾在未來幾個季度的計劃，電話會議的結束由我們酌情決定，在電話會議日期後長達 1 年的時間裡，供應協議超出了結束時間。

We have manufacturing options available and have been shipping a broad portfolio of Intel Optane technology products for more than a year.

我們有可用的製造選項，並且一年多來一直在運送廣泛的英特爾傲騰技術產品組合。

We will continue to expand our product line and lead the industry with this exciting new technology.

我們將繼續擴展我們的產品線，並以這項令人興奮的新技術引領行業。

PSG's revenues came in at $612 million, up 8% on strength in the data center and comms segments.

PSG 的收入為 6.12 億美元，在數據中心和通信領域增長 8%。

We saw continued momentum in PSG's data center segment, up 50% over last year.

我們看到 PSG 數據中心領域的持續發展勢頭，比去年增長了 50%。

In the Advanced products category, our 28-, 20- and 14-nanometer solutions grew an outstanding 70%.

在高級產品類別中，我們的 28、20 和 14 納米解決方案增長了 70%。

Operating profit was $162 million, up 4% year-over-year.

營業利潤為 1.62 億美元，同比增長 4%。

Finally, the Client Computing Group delivered another outstanding quarter with revenue of $9.8 billion, up 10% year-over-year.

最後，客戶端計算集團實現了另一個出色的季度，收入為 98 億美元，同比增長 10%。

Commercial and gaming demand continued to be strong.

商業和遊戲需求繼續強勁。

The notebook segment grew 8% year-over-year.

筆記本電腦市場同比增長 8%。

The desktop segment grew 3% year-over-year.

台式機市場同比增長 3%。

Supply remained constrained, particularly at the value end of our product range.

供應仍然受到限制，特別是在我們產品範圍的價值端。

We are working closely with our customers to align demand with available supply while we add capacity, and we expect supply-demand balance to improve by midyear.

我們正在與客戶密切合作，在增加產能的同時使需求與可用供應保持一致，我們預計到年中供需平衡將有所改善。

Client adjacencies grew 45% year-over-year, driven primarily by increased modem share gains.

客戶端鄰接數同比增長 45%，主要是由於調製解調器份額增加。

Though modem revenue fell significantly below our expectations as a result of weaker smartphone demand.

儘管由於智能手機需求疲軟，調製解調器收入大大低於我們的預期。

Our operating profit grew $402 million year-over-year with operating margin up 1 point.

我們的營業利潤同比增長 4.02 億美元，營業利潤率增長 1 個百分點。

While our PC volumes were down 2%, our leadership product performance and segmentation contributed to strong mix.

雖然我們的 PC 銷量下降了 2%，但我們領先的產品性能和細分市場促成了強勁的組合。

The investments we have made in the business organically and through acquisition are delivering excellent cash flow generation.

我們通過收購有機地對業務進行的投資正在產生出色的現金流。

For 2018, we generated $29.4 billion in cash from operations.

2018 年，我們從運營中產生了 294 億美元的現金。

We invested $15.2 billion in capital expenditures and delivered $14.3 billion in free cash flow, up 38% year-on-year and closing the gap versus EPS by 4.5 points.

我們在資本支出上投入了 152 億美元，實現了 143 億美元的自由現金流，同比增長 38%，與每股收益的差距縮小了 4.5 個百分點。

During this period, we returned 114% of our free cash flow to our shareholders.

在此期間，我們將 114% 的自由現金流返還給了股東。

Buybacks totaled $10.7 billion, and dividends totaled $5.5 billion.

回購總額為 107 億美元，股息總額為 55 億美元。

In addition, settlements of our convertible debt reduced fully diluted shares by 40 million.

此外，我們可轉換債務的結算使完全稀釋的股份減少了 4000 萬股。

To wrap up with our full year results, we ended 2018, our 50th anniversary year, with our third consecutive year of record results, revenue of $70.8 billion, up 13% year-on-year driven by 20% growth in our data-centric businesses and 9% growth in our PC-centric businesses.

為了總結我們的全年業績，我們結束了 2018 年，也就是我們成立 50 週年，我們連續第三年取得創紀錄的業績，收入為 708 億美元，在我們以數據為中心的業務增長 20% 的推動下，同比增長 13%我們以 PC 為中心的業務增長了 9%。

We started the year in January expecting to generate $65 billion in revenue, 30% operating margin and $3.55 in EPS.

我們從 1 月份開始，預計將產生 650 億美元的收入、30% 的營業利潤率和 3.55 美元的每股收益。

The growth that we and the industry have seen has been remarkable.

我們和整個行業都看到了顯著的增長。

We ended the year approximately $6 billion higher in revenue with operating margin of 35% and $4.58 in EPS.

到年底，我們的收入增加了約 60 億美元，營業利潤率為 35%，每股收益為 4.58 美元。

Operating income of $25 billion was up 25% on strong execution across the businesses and disciplined spending.

250 億美元的營業收入增長了 25%，這得益於各業務部門的強勁執行力和嚴格的支出。

In October, we provided a preview of our outlook for 2019.

10 月，我們提供了 2019 年展望的預覽。

At the time, we described a combination of tailwinds and headwinds that were balanced.

當時，我們描述了一種平衡的順風和逆風組合。

The tailwinds were an expanded and growing TAM, product momentum and business mix.

順風是擴大和不斷增長的 TAM、產品動力和業務組合。

The headwinds were tougher compares following an especially strong 2018 and increasingly competitive environment in global trade.

與 2018 年特別強勁且全球貿易競爭日益激烈的環境相比，逆風更為嚴峻。

Since that time, trade and macro concerns, especially in China, have intensified.

從那時起，貿易和宏觀問題，尤其是在中國，愈演愈烈。

Cloud service providers shifted from building capacity to absorbing capacity, and the NAND pricing environment has further deteriorated.

雲服務商從建設產能轉向吸收產能，NAND定價環境進一步惡化。

Those incremental headwinds are impacting our revenue expectations and slightly reducing our operating margin percentage forecast.

這些增量逆風正在影響我們的收入預期，並略微降低了我們的營業利潤率百分比預測。

The remaining factors are roughly consistent with our October assessment.

其餘因素與我們 10 月份的評估大致一致。

Now turning to our outlook for 2019.

現在轉向我們對 2019 年的展望。

We expect 2019 to be another record year for us as the world's appetite for the analysis, transmission and storage of data continues to grow.

隨著世界對數據分析、傳輸和存儲的需求持續增長，我們預計 2019 年將是我們又一個創紀錄的一年。

We are forecasting revenue of approximately $71.5 billion, up 1% year-on-year, and operating margin of approximately 34%, down less than a point year-on-year.

我們預計收入約為 715 億美元，同比增長 1%，營業利潤率約為 34%，同比下降不到一個點。

We expect a modest decrease in gross margin percentage driven by the 10-nanometer ramp and the growth of our adjacencies.

我們預計，由於 10 納米的增長和我們鄰接的增長，毛利率將適度下降。

This will be partially offset by increasing OpEx leverage as we continue to make thoughtful tradeoffs and invest in R&D that will accelerate our growth and profitability.

隨著我們繼續進行深思熟慮的權衡並投資於將加速我們的增長和盈利能力的研發，這將被增加的運營支出槓桿部分抵消。

We expect the full year tax rate to be approximately 13.5%, following several beneficial discrete events in 2018, and we expect EPS of $4.60.

我們預計全年稅率約為 13.5%，在 2018 年發生了幾起有利的離散事件後，我們預計每股收益為 4.60 美元。

We expect gross capital expenditures of $15.5 billion with logic spending up and memory spending down.

我們預計總資本支出為 155 億美元，邏輯支出增加，內存支出減少。

The increase in logic CapEx reflects our effort to meet our customers' needs and avoid constraining their growth, while our investment in memory is focused on the sit-up of our independent technology development facility in New Mexico.

邏輯資本支出的增加反映了我們為滿足客戶需求並避免限制他們的增長所做的努力，而我們對內存的投資主要集中在我們在新墨西哥州的獨立技術開發設施的建設上。

And finally, we expect free cash flow of $16 billion, an increase of approximately 12%.

最後，我們預計自由現金流為 160 億美元，增長約 12%。

As we look to the first quarter of 2019, we are forecasting revenue of approximately $16 billion, flat year-on-year, excluding Wind River.

展望 2019 年第一季度，我們預計收入約為 160 億美元，同比持平，不包括風河。

We expect PC-centric revenue to be up low single digits on higher modem share and data-centric revenue to be down low single digits on broad weakness in data center and continued NAND pricing pressure.

我們預計，以 PC 為中心的收入將因調製解調器份額的提高而增長低個位數，而以數據為中心的收入將因數據中心普遍疲軟和持續的 NAND 定價壓力而下降低個位數。

We expect operating margin of 29%, down 1 point year-over-year, with a decline in gross margin as a result of the 10-nanometer ramp and the growth of adjacencies, partially offset by increased spending leverage.

我們預計營業利潤率為 29%，同比下降 1 個百分點，毛利率下降是由於 10 納米坡道和鄰接的增長，部分被支出槓桿增加所抵消。

We expect EPS of $0.87, flat year-on-year.

我們預計每股收益為 0.87 美元，同比持平。

We expect 2019 to be our fourth record year in a row.

我們預計 2019 年將是我們連續第四年創紀錄。

We feel great about where we are and where we're going.

我們對自己所處的位置和要去的地方感覺很好。

Five years ago, we set out to transform Intel from a PC-centric company to a data-centric company.

五年前，我們著手將英特爾從一家以 PC 為中心的公司轉變為一家以數據為中心的公司。

Today, our strategy, products and people are delivering on that ambition with strong growth, record results and the largest TAM opportunity in the company's history.

今天，我們的戰略、產品和人員正在以強勁的增長、創紀錄的業績和公司歷史上最大的 TAM 機會實現這一雄心壯志。

I have been inspired and humbled time and time again by our employees' commitment to this company, their colleagues and our customers.

我們的員工對這家公司、他們的同事和我們的客戶的承諾一次又一次地鼓舞著我，並讓我感到謙卑。

And we're just getting started.

我們才剛剛開始。

I am convinced the board will close on a new CEO in the near future, and I believe the management team, myself and 107,000 employees will rally behind him or her to take this company to a whole new level.

我相信董事會將在不久的將來任命一位新 CEO，我相信管理團隊、我自己和 107,000 名員工將團結在他或她的身後，將這家公司推向一個全新的水平。

In the meantime, we will not be distracted by the void.

同時，我們也不會被虛空分心。

With that, let me turn it over back to Mark, and we'll get to your questions.

有了這個，讓我把它交給馬克，我們會回答你的問題。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Bob.

謝謝你，鮑勃。

Moving on now to the Q&A.

現在繼續進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Operator, please introduce our first questioner.

（操作員說明）操作員，請介紹我們的第一個提問者。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from John Pitzer with Credit Suisse.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 John Pitzer。

Just relative to the DC -- the data-centric guidance for the full year of up mid-single digits year-over-year in calendar year '19, you did a good job kind of explaining what's causing the weakness in Q1, DCG and the NAND pricing.

僅相對於 DC —— 以數據為中心的指導，在 19 日曆年全年同比增長中個位數，你很好地解釋了導致第一季度、DCG 和NAND定價。

But as you look throughout the year from a minus kind of low single digits to full year being mid-single-digit growth, you are kind of looking for an acceleration against what becomes harder year-over-year compares in the June and September time frame at least.

但是，當您全年從負的低個位數增長到全年的中個位數增長時，您正在尋找與 6 月和 9 月時間相比變得更難的同比增長的加速至少框架。

I'm just kind of curious if you can help us frame how you think that that reacceleration occurs.

我只是有點好奇你是否可以幫助我們確定你認為重新加速是如何發生的。

How long of a pause are you seeing with the cloud customers?

您看到雲客戶停頓了多長時間？

And importantly, how are you thinking about increased competition in '19 in the data-centric businesses, especially in the server business, as you think about mid-single-digit year-over-year growth?

重要的是，您如何看待 19 年以數據為中心的業務，尤其是服務器業務中競爭的加劇，以及中個位數的同比增長？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for your one question, John.

謝謝你的一個問題，約翰。

I'll take a stab, and then Navin is here with me as well, I'm sure he has a few comments.

我會試一試，然後 Navin 也和我在一起，我相信他有一些意見。

First, I would say that since we look at just overall demand for the data center environment, the end user demand by consumers and by enterprises, the workloads that we're seeing, the continued growth in workloads, we are as excited about the future as we've ever been.

首先，我想說的是，由於我們只關注數據中心環境的整體需求、消費者和企業的最終用戶需求、我們看到的工作負載、工作負載的持續增長，我們對未來感到興奮就像我們曾經一樣。

So we feel pretty good about the medium and long-term trends.

所以我們對中長期趨勢感覺很好。

As you know, in 2018, our growth rate, particularly in the cloud, was up 45% through the first 9 months of the year.

如您所知，在 2018 年，我們的增長率，尤其是在雲計算領域，在今年前 9 個月增長了 45%。

So what we saw in the fourth quarter was -- as I had mentioned, we saw a little bit of consumption going on.

所以我們在第四季度看到的是——正如我所提到的，我們看到了一點點消費。

As you know, the purchases are done in -- kind of in cycles, massive purchases through the first 9 months.

如您所知，購買是在循環中完成的，前 9 個月的大量購買。

And we started to see some of those purchases consumed in the fourth quarter.

我們開始看到第四季度消費了其中的一些購買。

And we end the year, we think, with inventory levels on the server side of the business just a little bit higher than they had been historically.

我們認為，到今年年底，業務服務器端的庫存水平僅略高於歷史水平。

So as we project forward in the first 6 months of the year, we think that it's going to continue to be both consumption on the server side and pricing in the NSG environment to be down through the first 6 months.

因此，當我們在今年的前 6 個月進行預測時，我們認為在前 6 個月中服務器端的消費和 NSG 環境中的定價都將繼續下降。

And consistent with kind of historical patterns, we do expect the purchasing to start picking up again in the second half of the year.

與某種歷史模式一致，我們確實預計採購將在下半年再次開始回升。

That's kind of how we see it.

這就是我們的看法。

Long -- medium, long-term, we feel great, massive buying in the first 9 months.

長期——中期，長期，我們感覺很好，前 9 個月的大量購買。

The buying slowed a bit in the fourth quarter, and we expect that to continue through the first 6 months.

第四季度的購買有所放緩，我們預計這種情況將持續到前 6 個月。

I think just -- I think the last part of your question, I think just competitively, then I'll tick it over to Navin, look, we're going into 2019 with every expectation to compete, to protect our share position across our entire business.

我認為只是-我認為您的問題的最後一部分，我認為只是競爭性，然後我將把它交給 Navin，看，我們將進入 2019 年，每個人都期望競爭，以保護我們在整個整個業務。

So we're going to -- we're obviously investing in the capital required to ensure we don't constrain customers' growth.

所以我們要——我們顯然是在投資所需的資本，以確保我們不會限制客戶的增長。

We're continuing to invest in R&D.

我們將繼續投資於研發。

And third, we're going to invest to protect our competitive position, both on the PC side and the data-centric side.

第三，我們將投資以保護我們在 PC 端和以數據為中心的競爭地位。

So yes, we expect competition to be stronger as we go through '19, but we're going to -- our guidance incorporates the fact that we're going to fight to protect our position.

所以，是的，我們預計隨著 19 年的到來，競爭會更加激烈，但我們會——我們的指導包含這樣一個事實，即我們將為保護我們的地位而戰。

Navin, any...

納文，任何...

Maybe the only thing I'd add, John, is that from a product point of view, the dynamic to think about in 2019 is that, as Bob mentioned, we began shipping for production Cascade Lake, our next-generation Xeon.

約翰，也許我唯一要補充的是，從產品的角度來看，2019 年要考慮的動態是，正如 Bob 提到的，我們開始為我們的下一代 Xeon 產品 Cascade Lake 發貨。

And really, that product is going to ramp -- start to ramp in the middle part of the year and into the second half of the year.

確實，該產品將在今年年中和下半年開始增長。

The design momentum looks very strong.

設計氣勢看起來非常強勁。

The product features look very compelling.

產品功能看起來非常引人注目。

The AI capability we have with DL Boost, the support for Optane persistent memory, the security, hardware mitigation fixes, so that the customer momentum around that product line looks very strong.

我們擁有 DL Boost 的 AI 功能、對 Optane 持久內存的支持、安全性、硬件緩解修復，因此圍繞該產品線的客戶勢頭看起來非常強勁。

But it really doesn't ramp until the middle to the second half of the year.

但實際上要到年中到下半年才開始升溫。

So as Bob said, the first half, a little bit tougher but second half, with product momentum as well as what we're hearing from our customers, we expect to be better in the Data Center Group.

所以正如 Bob 所說，上半年有點艱難，但下半年，隨著產品的發展勢頭以及我們從客戶那裡聽到的情況，我們希望數據中心集團做得更好。

And our next question comes from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Bernstein Research 的 Stacy Rasgon。

To maybe generalize on that, if I just look through your guidance, you're basically guiding flat in Q1.

為了概括這一點，如果我只是看一下你的指導，你在第一季度基本上是持平的。

And roughly flattish for the full year would suggest that overall, you're looking for a revenue trajectory in 2019 that's very similar to the trajectory you had in 2018, which was very, very strong sequentially, in many of the quarters.

全年大致持平表明，總體而言，您正在尋找 2019 年的收入軌跡，該軌跡與您在 2018 年的軌跡非常相似，在許多季度中，該軌跡非常非常強勁。

So I guess, what is the risk, just given everything that's going on that that may be too aggressive, especially as you had a number of drivers in 2018, both on the data center as well as on the client side, that aren't going to be repeating in 2019?

所以我想，風險是什麼，考慮到正在發生的一切可能過於激進，特別是因為你在 2018 年有許多驅動程序，無論是在數據中心還是在客戶端，都不是會在2019年重演嗎？

Like how do we think about that?

比如我們是怎麼想的？

Well, first, yes, 2018 was a great year, as we mentioned earlier, it grew during the course of the year.

嗯，首先，是的，2018 年是偉大的一年，正如我們之前提到的，它在這一年中增長。

But a function, we believe, Stacy, is just the end demand for data.

但我們認為，Stacy 的功能只是對數據的最終需求。

And we haven't seen that slow down at all.

而且我們根本沒有看到這種放緩。

Again, on workloads, insights from our customer in the industry, workloads continue to grow.

同樣，關於工作負載，來自我們行業客戶的見解，工作負載繼續增長。

The demand for analytics for compute, for storage, for rapid retrieval, we think, only continues to grow.

我們認為，對計算、存儲和快速檢索的分析需求只會繼續增長。

And we believe that we have a very good position as we go into the year, including the products that Navin referenced.

我們相信，隨著我們進入這一年，我們擁有非常好的地位，包括 Navin 提到的產品。

So we go into the year, we think, setting expectations in line with how we expect things to play out.

因此，我們認為，我們進入這一年，根據我們對事情發展的預期設定預期。

And I would say today, our outlook is a little more cautious than it was a few months ago.

我今天要說的是，我們的前景比幾個月前更加謹慎。

And we try to take into account both the macroeconomics, the geopolitical risk, the modest inventory build as we enter the year and the competitive environment.

我們試圖同時考慮宏觀經濟、地緣政治風險、進入這一年時適度的庫存增加和競爭環境。

We've kind of taken those into account, reflected them the best we can as we go into the year, and we feel pretty good about how things stack up right now.

我們已經將這些考慮在內，在我們進入這一年時盡可能地反映了它們，我們對現在的情況感覺很好。

And our expectation as we have in the past is to deliver on the commitments we make as we kick off the year.

和過去一樣，我們的期望是兌現我們在今年開始時做出的承諾。

And our next question comes from Pierre Ferragu with New Street Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu。

I was surprised, Bob, on your CapEx guidance and especially on the memory side.

鮑勃，我對您的資本支出指導，尤其是在內存方面感到驚訝。

So my understanding is that last year, you spent about $3 billion there, with about half of that money actually coming from your clients, so not being actually Intel capital being deployed.

所以我的理解是，去年你在那里花了大約 30 億美元，其中大約一半的錢實際上來自你的客戶，所以實際上並不是英特爾的資金被部署了。

So if you had $1.5 billion of Intel capital deployed in memory last year, if I look at your guide and seeing logic is slightly up, memory is going to be slightly down, so the actual Intel capital invested, deployed into memory this year is going to be up massively, maybe close to 2x.

因此，如果您去年在內存中部署了 15 億美元的英特爾資金，如果我查看您的指南並看到邏輯略有上升，內存將略有下降，因此今年實際投入的英特爾資金，部署到內存中大幅上漲，可能接近 2 倍。

And that's in a year in which everybody in the value chain, everybody in the memory industry is actually pulling back on CapEx and limiting capacity addition.

在這一年，價值鏈中的每個人，內存行業的每個人實際上都在縮減資本支出並限制產能增加。

So I'd love to understand how you see that and how you position Intel this year in memory.

因此，我很想了解您如何看待這一點，以及您如何在今年的內存中定位英特爾。

Yes.

是的。

First, just to maybe start with as we see kind of free cash flow for the year, we expect to be up $2 billion year-on-year with gross capital relatively flat.

首先，從我們看到今年的自由現金流開始，我們預計將同比增長 20 億美元，總資本相對持平。

And I think you said this, but just to repeat, $15.5 billion going to $15.5 billion.

我想你說過這個，但只是重複一遍，從 155 億美元到 155 億美元。

During the course of '19, our expectations are, of that mix, that we'll be more logic-oriented.

在 19 年的過程中，我們的期望是，我們將更加註重邏輯。

And that's really driven by a couple of things: one, ensuring we have the capacity to meet the 14-nanometer demand for our customers; secondly, as we ramp 10-nanometer in 2019 and position for 10- in 2020, we'll invest additional capital there; and then third, obviously, our expectations are to continue to invest in next-node technology, in particular, 7-nanometer.

這實際上是由幾件事驅動的：第一，確保我們有能力滿足客戶對 14 納米的需求；其次，隨著我們在 2019 年推進 10 納米並在 2020 年定位到 10 納米，我們將在那裡投入更多資金；第三，顯然，我們的期望是繼續投資下一代節點技術，特別是 7 納米。

So logic capital is going to be going up year-on-year.

所以邏輯資本將逐年上升。

And as we indicated, memory capital will be coming down.

正如我們所指出的，內存資本將會下降。

We put the capacity in place in Dalian during the course of '17 and '18, and our expectations are in 2019 that we have sufficient capacity for demand.

我們在大連的產能是在 17 和 18 年間就位的，我們預計 2019 年我們有足夠的產能滿足需求。

However, we are going to be investing in our own capabilities, our self-sufficiencies for Optane product.

但是，我們將投資於我們自己的能力，即我們對 Optane 產品的自給自足。

So we will use some capital on building out Optane capacity, but memory capital will be a bit lower, gross capital will be a bit lower during the course of the year.

因此，我們將使用一些資本來建設 Optane 容量，但內存資本會略低，全年總資本會略低。

Our next question comes from Chris Danely with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Chris Danely。

I'm going to shift to the expense line.

我將轉到費用行。

So maybe give us a little more color on OpEx and gross margin trends and how you're going to hit the operating margin target.

因此，也許可以給我們更多關於運營支出和毛利率趨勢的信息，以及您將如何達到營業利潤率目標。

Yes.

是的。

So first, gross margin.

首先，毛利率。

The qualitative context is we expect gross margin to come down modestly off of Q4 levels and a little bit more off full year '18 levels.

定性背景是，我們預計毛利率將從第四季度的水平小幅下降，並從 18 年全年的水平略微下降。

And we do expect that that will be largely, although not completely, offset by spending as a percentage of revenue coming down again in 2019.

我們確實預計，這將在很大程度上（儘管不是完全）被 2019 年支出佔收入的百分比再次下降所抵消。

I think just on the gross margin, the trends are going to be a little bit similar to what you've seen in the past, although we do expect a little bit less ASP -- gross margin improvement from ASP.

我認為僅就毛利率而言，趨勢將與您過去看到的情況有點相似，儘管我們確實預計平均售價會有所降低——平均售價的毛利率會有所提高。

We expect unit cost to be up a little bit, and that will be primarily as we ramp 10-nanometer.

我們預計單位成本會略有上升，這主要是因為我們推出了 10 納米。

And then the mix dynamics of more memory and more modem will weigh on gross margin a bit.

然後更多內存和更多調製解調器的混合動力將稍微影響毛利率。

So year-on-year, we expect gross margins to come down a little bit.

因此，與去年同期相比，我們預計毛利率會有所下降。

On spending, as you know, we kind of -- we exit this year with spending levels down in the -- 26% in the fourth quarter and a little under 29% for the full year.

如您所知，在支出方面，我們今年退出了，第四季度的支出水平下降了 26%，全年略低於 29%。

So we're way ahead of our -- the 3-year plans that we laid out a couple of years ago, and we feel pretty good about the progress we made on the spending.

因此，我們遠遠領先於我們幾年前製定的 3 年計劃，我們對我們在支出方面取得的進展感到非常滿意。

And we've done it without cutting R&D.

我們在不削減研發的情況下做到了。

During that time frame, R&D has grown.

在此期間，研發有所增長。

We've been investing in the right things.

我們一直在投資正確的事情。

Those things are growing faster.

這些東西增長得更快。

As a result, spending has come down 700 points from 2015 levels.

結果，支出從 2015 年的水平下降了 700 個百分點。

As we go into 2019, spending overall, we expect to come down.

隨著我們進入 2019 年，總體支出預計會下降。

Some things we did during the course of the second half of '18, including the exit of -- we exited Wind River.

我們在 18 年下半年做的一些事情，包括退出風河。

We exited wearables.

我們退出了可穿戴設備。

We exited some of our new technology, small little businesses.

我們退出了一些新技術，小型企業。

We exited those businesses in the second half of the year, and we did some restructuring in the second half of the year.

我們在下半年退出了這些業務，並在下半年進行了一些重組。

So as we go into '18, all that benefit from a relatively low Q4 $4.9 billion run rate, we expect that spending for the full year will be down year-on-year.

因此，當我們進入 18 年時，所有這一切都受益於第四季度相對較低的 49 億美元的運行率，我們預計全年的支出將同比下降。

So you net all that together and we have a -- we've been really focused on growing the operating income dollars of the company.

因此，您將所有這些結合在一起，我們就有了——我們一直專注於增加公司的營業收入。

We're not -- we focus on, but we're not preoccupied, with where the gross margin's going to land.

我們不是 - 我們專注於，但我們並不全神貫注於毛利率的下降。

Our focus has been on how do we grow the operating income dollars of the company.

我們的重點是如何增加公司的營業收入。

And in a relatively small growth year, we see keeping operating margins at 34% to be in a relatively good place without cheating the investments we need to make to continue to progress into '19 and '20.

在一個相對較小的增長年份，我們認為將營業利潤率保持在 34% 是在一個相對較好的位置，而不會欺騙我們需要進行的投資以繼續進入 19 和 20 年。

And our next question comes from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅斯·西莫爾。

Just wanted to follow up, Bob, you gave a lot of great detail there on the margin side, especially on the OpEx side.

只是想跟進，Bob，你在邊際方面提供了很多很棒的細節，尤其是在運營支出方面。

I wanted to go right back to the gross margin side, though.

不過，我想直接回到毛利率方面。

And somewhat simplistically perhaps, but you kept the gross margin guide basically the same as you did at the end of last quarter despite the headwinds to mix seemingly with your data centric commentary and data center being worse and your revenue being lower.

也許有點簡單，但你保持毛利率指南與上個季度末的基本相同，儘管逆風似乎與你的以數據為中心的評論和數據中心混合在一起更糟，你的收入更低。

So is there any more color you can give on the puts and takes that leads to just the modest decrease given those other variables that seem like they have increased as headwinds from when you last talked about gross margin in '19?

那麼，考慮到其他變量似乎隨著您上次談到 19 年毛利率時的逆風而增加，您是否可以在看跌期權和買入期權上提供更多顏色，從而導致適度下降？

Yes.

是的。

The gross margin, Ross, isn't really any different.

羅斯的毛利率並沒有什麼不同。

The puts and takes back then, as I indicated, were modest ASP growth.

正如我所指出的那樣，當時的看跌期權和回饋都是適度的 ASP 增長。

As we are going to fight to protect our market share position, we don't expect a lot of ASP growth.

由於我們將努力保護我們的市場份額地位，我們預計 ASP 不會有很大的增長。

Again, 10-nanometer ramp, not really any different.

再說一次，10 納米斜坡，並沒有什麼不同。

I highlighted in the prepared remarks, we feel very good about kind of where we are in ramping 10-nanometer during the course of the year to get systems on the shelf for the holiday season, so no real change there.

我在準備好的評論中強調，我們對在一年中加速 10 納米以在假日季節上架系統方面感到非常滿意，所以那裡沒有真正的變化。

And modem and memory growth will be a little bit slower today versus where we were 90 days ago.

與 90 天前相比，今天的調製解調器和內存增長會慢一些。

So, on the operating margin -- or operating margin percent, that's a slight positive.

因此，就營業利潤率或營業利潤率百分比而言，這是一個輕微的積極因素。

The real only change from 90 days ago is just we're a little more cautious on our revenue outlook, and our spending hasn't really changed.

與 90 天前相比，真正唯一的變化是我們對收入前景更加謹慎，我們的支出並沒有真正改變。

So we got a slight -- not as much leverage that we expected back in October but still good spending leverage during the course of the year.

所以我們得到了一個輕微的槓桿——沒有我們在 10 月份預期的那麼多，但在這一年中仍然有很好的支出槓桿。

So not really any different on the gross margin and spending dynamics that we thought 90 days ago except a little less leverage on the spending line.

因此，我們在 90 天前認為的毛利率和支出動態並沒有什麼不同，只是支出線的槓桿率有所降低。

Our next question comes from Vivek Arya with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

我們的下一個問題來自美銀美林的 Vivek Arya。

Within DCG, how should we think about the mix, cloud versus comms versus enterprise for Q1 and 2019?

在 DCG 中，我們應該如何看待第一季度和 2019 年的雲與通信與企業的組合？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Vivek, Navin here.

謝謝，Vivek，這裡是 Navin。

Look, we've been -- over the last 18 months, been working hard to diversify the end customer segment mix inside of DCG, and there's 3 large components: the enterprise and government segment, the cloud segment and the comms segment.

看，在過去的 18 個月裡，我們一直在努力使 DCG 內部的最終客戶群組合多樣化，並且有 3 個大的組成部分：企業和政府部門、雲部門和通信部門。

Cloud and comms is about 2/3 of the business now, where it was about 1/3 several years ago.

雲和通信現在約佔業務的 2/3，而幾年前約為 1/3。

And so I don't see any major changes to the way things play out in terms of where the growth will come from as we look into 2019 and beyond.

因此，在我們展望 2019 年及以後，就增長的來源而言，我認為事情的發展方式不會發生任何重大變化。

While the first half in the cloud will be a little bit tougher, we do expect that cloud continues to grow as they start to move and to build out again in the second half.

雖然雲計算的前半部分會更加艱難，但我們確實預計雲計算會繼續增長，因為它們開始移動並在下半場再次構建。

In comms segment, we continue to gain share in that segment, a large TAM where we have relatively small share.

在通信領域，我們繼續在該領域獲得份額，這是一個我們擁有相對較小份額的大型 TAM。

And as we grow our network SoC portfolio and as the market moves to 5G, we expect to continue to gain share.

隨著我們擴大網絡 SoC 產品組合以及市場轉向 5G，我們預計將繼續獲得份額。

And in the enterprise and government segment, while we've seen stabilization there over the last 4 or 5 quarters, we're not really counting on the enterprise and government segment for growth.

在企業和政府部門，雖然我們在過去 4 或 5 個季度看到穩定，但我們並沒有真正指望企業和政府部門的增長。

We do expect that enterprises will continue to make strategic choices about what to deploy on-premise and what to deploy in the cloud.

我們確實希望企業將繼續就在本地部署什麼以及在雲中部署什麼做出戰略選擇。

And in general, that business is not one that we count on for growth.

總的來說，該業務不是我們指望增長的業務。

So in general, you'll see us continue to push on comms and cloud to drive growth, particularly in the second half of the year.

所以總的來說，你會看到我們繼續推動通信和雲計算來推動增長，尤其是在下半年。

Our next question comes from Chris Caso with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Chris Caso 和 Raymond James。

Just wanted to receive an update on some of the CPU shortages that you've been experiencing, how you're progressing on alleviating the shortages, what effect that may have had on the Q4 results given that, I guess, there was some supply tightness at least coming into the quarter.

只是想收到有關您一直在經歷的一些 CPU 短缺的最新信息，您在緩解短缺方面的進展情況，考慮到供應緊張，這可能對第四季度的結果產生了什麼影響至少進入本季度。

And then on that, with demand slowing a bit, is there any fear?

然後，隨著需求放緩，是否有任何恐懼？

Do you have any visibility about customers who may have attempted or succeeded in building some inventory amid those shortages?

您是否了解在這些短缺情況下可能嘗試或成功建立一些庫存的客戶？

Yes.

是的。

First, in the fourth quarter, just in terms of isolating how we prioritize our capacity, there were no shortages within the client business, prioritization of big core and, to a lesser extent, small core, lower value-oriented products.

首先，在第四季度，僅就我們如何優先考慮我們的產能而言，在客戶業務中沒有短缺，優先考慮大核心，在較小程度上，小核心，低價值導向的產品。

And so we did -- we do feel like we constrained a fairly healthy PC ecosystem in the fourth quarter.

所以我們做到了——我們確實覺得我們在第四季度限制了一個相當健康的 PC 生態系統。

I think when the dust settles on PC TAM, our expectation is it was probably flat and our shipments were down 2%.

我認為當 PC TAM 塵埃落定時，我們的預期是它可能持平，我們的出貨量下降了 2%。

That was a function of we delivered every product that we could right up through December 30 -- 31.

這是我們在 12 月 30 日至 31 日之前交付的所有產品的功能。

So we did have some constraints on the ecosystem and on our customers during the course of the quarter.

因此，在本季度期間，我們確實對生態系統和我們的客戶有一些限制。

At the end of the year, Chris, I think inventory levels relative to the beginning of the year were a little bit higher, maybe a 1.5 weeks, 2 weeks higher as we entered the year.

在年底，克里斯，我認為相對於年初的庫存水平有點高，可能是 1.5 週，當我們進入今年時高 2 週。

And our expectations for the year is the PC TAM is going to be relatively flat.

我們對今年的預期是 PC TAM 將相對持平。

And that, for us, is a good place to be.

對我們來說，那是一個好去處。

We're probably halfway through the PC refresh cycle.

我們可能已經完成了 PC 更新周期的一半。

We feel things have been relatively flat during the year.

我們覺得這一年的情況相對平穩。

Inventory levels in the channel is a little bit higher ending the year.

年底渠道庫存水平略高。

For us, inventory levels were relatively low as you might imagine on CPU just because of the constraints we've been dealing with.

對我們來說，由於我們一直在處理的限制，庫存水平相對較低，正如您在 CPU 上所想像的那樣。

Our expectation is, working with our customers, that we will be through the supply constraints as we exit the second quarter of the year.

我們的期望是，與我們的客戶合作，我們將在今年第二季度退出時克服供應限制。

Again, we'll use the same prioritization of server, big core, small core.

同樣，我們將使用相同的服務器優先級、大核心、小核心。

But we'll be a little bit short on some product mix and on small core until we get probably through to the second quarter.

但我們可能會在一些產品組合和小核心方面有點短缺，直到我們可能熬到第二季度。

And that will constrain us a little bit on just overall growth in the first half of the year.

這將限制我們在今年上半年的整體增長。

And our next question comes from Harlan Sur, JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

Just wanted to get an update on 10-nanometer manufacturability.

只是想獲得有關 10 納米可製造性的更新。

I know last quarter, the team mentioned that 10-nanometer yields where tracking 14-nanometer yields at a similar point prior to production ramp.

我知道上個季度，該團隊提到了 10 納米良率，其中在量產前的類似時間點跟踪 14 納米良率。

Is the team still seeing good improvements in 10-nanometer yields?

團隊是否仍然看到 10 納米良率的良好改進？

Are you still tracking 14-nanometer yield ramps?

您還在跟踪 14 納米的良率提升嗎？

And can you just give us an update on early 7-nanometer development and manufacturability?

您能給我們介紹一下早期 7 納米開發和可製造性的最新情況嗎？

Harlan, this is Murthy.

哈蘭，這是穆爾蒂。

I'll take that question.

我會回答這個問題。

I can only add to what Bob said in his opening statements that we continue to make solid progress against our plan that we shared with you during the course of 2018.

我只能補充鮑勃在開幕詞中所說的話，即我們繼續在 2018 年期間與您分享的計劃中取得堅實的進展。

And as I said on the last call, I feel better about our traction today than I did 90 days ago.

正如我在上次電話會議中所說，我對我們今天的牽引力感覺比 90 天前更好。

So that continues to bode well for our product launch ambitions, which Bob summarized as having systems on the shelf for holiday season in 2019, with a barrage of products across all of our businesses to follow shortly thereafter.

因此，這對我們的產品發布雄心來說仍然是個好兆頭，鮑勃將其總結為 2019 年假日季節的系統已上架，此後不久我們所有業務的一系列產品都將跟進。

And I would like to take the opportunity to just remind everybody that at CES and in the analyst meeting we had at the end of last year, we did show 10-nanometers across the entire portfolio of our product ranges.

我想藉此機會提醒大家，在 CES 和去年年底的分析師會議上，我們確實在我們的整個產品系列中展示了 10 納米技術。

We talked about Ice Lake clients, which clearly was top of mind in the early discussions, but we also talked about Lakefield, Bob mentioned that as well.

我們談到了 Ice Lake 客戶，這顯然是早期討論中的首要問題，但我們也談到了 Lakefield，Bob 也提到了這一點。

We also -- Navin talked about 10-nanometers for Ice Lake server.

我們還——Navin 談到了 Ice Lake 服務器的 10 納米。

And we also talked about 10-nanometers moving into our networking and 5G program, which we believe is going to be a big growth sector.

我們還談到了 10 納米技術進入我們的網絡和 5G 計劃，我們認為這將是一個巨大的增長領域。

So the story is not just about 10-nanometer yields but 10-nanometer now being a key part of our entire product portfolio.

所以這個故事不僅僅是關於 10 納米的產量，而是 10 納米現在是我們整個產品組合的關鍵部分。

And as I say, I think that, coupled with our focus on the pillars of technology that Bob talked about, in my mind, I think, puts our product portfolio looking forward in a pretty good position.

正如我所說，我認為，再加上我們對 Bob 談到的技術支柱的關注，在我看來，我認為我們的產品組合處於一個非常好的位置。

So net-net, I think 10-nanometer is looking better now than at the last earnings call.

所以 net-net，我認為 10 納米現在看起來比上次財報電話會議時更好。

It's broadly deployed across our portfolio.

它廣泛部署在我們的產品組合中。

And that, in combination with the other technology gradients, that Bob talked about, we believe, sets us up for a pretty exciting product road map.

我們相信，與 Bob 談到的其他技術梯度相結合，我們為一個非常令人興奮的產品路線圖奠定了基礎。

Our next question comes from Ambrish Srivastava with BMO.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Ambrish Srivastava。

Bob, I just wanted to go back to the NSG and the profitability in what was a really booming year for memory.

鮑勃，我只是想回到 NSG 以及在記憶真正蓬勃發展的一年中的盈利能力。

Obviously, price has started to come down back half of the year, but NSG was barely profitable.

很明顯，下半年價格已經開始回落，但 NSG 幾乎沒有盈利。

So just from a CFO perspective, what is your tolerance level for having a business, a segment that could go into a deep cyclical downturn and -- not could, it is heading into a deep cyclical downturn.

因此，僅從首席財務官的角度來看，您對擁有一家企業的容忍度是多少，一個可能陷入深度週期性衰退的細分市場——不可能，它正走向深度週期性衰退。

So how do you think about having a commodity within the Intel umbrella and, again, the risk -- not risk tolerance, the tolerance for lack of profitability?

那麼，您如何看待在英特爾旗下擁有商品以及風險——不是風險承受能力，而是對缺乏盈利能力的容忍？

Just your perspective on that, please.

請僅談談您對此的看法。

Yes.

是的。

First, a couple of things.

首先，有幾件事。

When we look at -- I mentioned this in the prepared remarks, and Murthy touched on it.

當我們看到-- 我在準備好的評論中提到了這一點，Murthy 談到了它。

When we look at the technologies that we believe are going to be imperatives going forward in this increasingly data-centric world: process, CPU architecture, interconnect, software, memory is a key component.

當我們審視我們認為在這個日益以數據為中心的世界中勢在必行的技術時：進程、CPU 架構、互連、軟件、內存是關鍵組件。

And all the advancements in CPUs will be constrained if you don't have differentiated technology in memory.

如果內存中沒有差異化技術，CPU 的所有進步都將受到限制。

So we think that the role memory plays going forward is increasingly important.

所以我們認為記憶在未來扮演的角色越來越重要。

In terms of the -- just the CFO lens of having a commodity in the portfolio, I'm not too excited about it.

就 - 只是在投資組合中擁有商品的首席財務官鏡頭，我對此並不太興奮。

And that's why the investments we're making in memory are for, what we believe, differentiated technology, both in the manufacturing process capabilities of 3D NAND but also the differentiated technology for Optane and the role that it plays, both on the PC side but, most importantly, for us on the data-centric side.

這就是為什麼我們在內存方面進行投資的原因是，我們相信，差異化技術，包括 3D NAND 的製造工藝能力以及 Optane 的差異化技術及其所扮演的角色，無論是在 PC 方面，但，最重要的是，對於我們以數據為中心的一方來說。

So we're not particularly excited about commodities.

所以我們對大宗商品並不特別興奮。

When we make these investments, it's really geared towards products and technologies that are increasingly important and those technologies that are differentiated from kind of the core memory space that help us, in conjunction with the CPU, solve customers' problems.

當我們進行這些投資時，它實際上是針對越來越重要的產品和技術，以及那些與核心內存空間不同的技術，這些技術可以幫助我們與 CPU 一起解決客戶的問題。

I'll just maybe add one thing, it's Navin.

我可能會添加一件事，那就是 Navin。

As an example of that, the Optane persistent memory combined with Cascade Lake, Xeon plus Optane, that is a platform play.

例如，Optane 持久內存與 Cascade Lake、Xeon 和 Optane 相結合，這是一個平台遊戲。

Optane persistent memory works uniquely with Xeon.

Optane 持久內存與 Xeon 一起工作。

And as I think about and talk to customers about the massive amount of data growth we're seeing, the ability for us to uniquely tie those 2 assets together to solve customer problems is a differentiator for us and allows us to drive growth.

當我思考並與客戶談論我們看到的大量數據增長時，我們將這兩種資產獨特地結合在一起以解決客戶問題的能力對我們來說是一個差異化因素，並使我們能夠推動增長。

And so to the extent we can exploit more of those kinds of opportunities, things get more exciting from a business unit GM point of view.

因此，在我們可以利用更多此類機會的範圍內，從業務部門 GM 的角度來看，事情會變得更加令人興奮。

And our next question comes from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Timothy Arcuri。

Navin, I had a question for you, and sort of there seems to be a little bit of a different tone between what we hear from your cloud customers, the compute guys, you and the memory guys are seeing weakness, but the networking companies still sound fine.

Navin，我有一個問題要問你，我們從你的雲客戶、計算人員、你和內存人員那裡聽到的聲音似乎有點不同，但網絡公司仍然存在聽起來不錯。

So is it just an inventory digestion of computer and servers?

那麼它只是對計算機和服務器的庫存消化嗎？

Or is there something structural happening there?

還是那裡發生了一些結構性的事情？

Yes.

是的。

I think, as Bob said, and I think we talked about a little bit, we had 3 quarters of really, really strong growth in 2018 in the cloud.

我認為，正如 Bob 所說，我認為我們談了一點，我們在 2018 年實現了 3 個季度的非常非常強勁的增長。

And that was driven by a product cycle as well as a typical multiyear build-out pattern with Xeon Scalable.

這是由產品週期以及 Xeon Scalable 的典型多年擴展模式驅動的。

And if you look back at all the historical trends we've had in the cloud business, we've always said there's some lumpiness to the business.

如果你回顧我們在雲業務中的所有歷史趨勢，我們總是說業務存在一些起伏。

And there's periods where people build, and then there's periods where people consume.

有些時期人們建造，然後有些時期人們消費。

The signals we get from our customers is a period of build for compute is going to shift now to a period of consumption.

我們從客戶那裡得到的信號是計算的構建期現在將轉變為消費期。

And that started in the second half, in the fourth quarter, and we expect that to continue through the first half of the year.

這始於下半年，第四季度，我們預計這種情況將持續到今年上半年。

Secularly, over the long term, medium to long term, the cloud business is going to continue to grow.

從長期來看，從中長期來看，雲業務將繼續增長。

There's no doubt about that.

毫無疑問。

Both the consumer cloud and the enterprise commercial cloud, we see both of those continuing to grow.

無論是消費者云還是企業商業雲，我們都看到它們都在繼續增長。

And the appetite for compute, I think, is somewhat insatiable.

我認為，對計算的需求有點無法滿足。

Bob talked about compute cycle growth.

Bob 談到了計算週期的增長。

Our 5-year forecast for compute cycle growth, or MIPS growth, is 50% CAGR over the next 5 years.

我們對計算週期增長或 MIPS 增長的 5 年預測是未來 5 年的複合年增長率為 50%。

I see nothing slowing that down over the next number of years.

在接下來的幾年裡，我認為沒有什麼能減緩這種速度。

So that would be how I'd kind of answer that one, Tim.

所以我會這樣回答那個，蒂姆。

All right.

好的。

Let me -- maybe if I could just close out, Mark.

讓我——如果我能結束的話，馬克。

Look, we think 2018 was a great year.

看，我們認為 2018 年是偉大的一年。

Our -- strategically, what it is we're trying to do and the opportunities we see are as strong, if not stronger, today heading forward as they've ever been.

我們的 - 從戰略上講，我們正在努力做的事情以及我們看到的機會與以往一樣強大，如果不是更強大的話，今天會繼續前進。

We think '19 for us is going to be another record year.

我們認為 19 年對我們來說將是另一個創紀錄的一年。

At the same time, we realize that first quarter is just going to be lower.

同時，我們意識到第一季度只會更低。

And the practical reality is we got -- we think we have a reasonably good read on the level of inventory that's in the ecosystem.

我們得到了實際的現實——我們認為我們對生態系統中的庫存水平有相當好的了解。

I'd say this particularly for we're getting better and better on the diagnostics around the DCG business.

我之所以這麼說，是因為我們在圍繞 DCG 業務的診斷方面越來越好。

The Q4 to Q1 dynamics for DCG historically have been sequentially down 8% to 10%.

從歷史上看，DCG 的第四季度至第一季度的動態已連續下降 8% 至 10%。

And the practical reality is, as we see it now, is that could be double in the first quarter.

正如我們現在所看到的，實際情況是，第一季度可能會翻一番。

But that has nothing to do with the strength of the business, the product line portfolio we have coming and our excitement about delivering a real strong 2019 as we go forward.

但這與業務實力、我們即將推出的產品線組合以及我們對在前進的過程中實現真正強勁的 2019 年的興奮無關。

So thank you very much for joining us, and I'm sure we'll talk to you soon.

非常感謝您加入我們，我相信我們很快就會與您交談。

Operator, please go ahead and wrap up the call.

接線員，請繼續結束通話。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。

This concludes today's program, and you may all disconnect.

今天的節目到此結束，大家可以斷線了。

Everyone, have a wonderful day.

大家，有一個美好的一天。