英特爾 (INTC) 2019 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Second Quarter 2019 Intel Corporation Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's program is being recorded. And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Mark Henninger, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

女士們、先生們，大家好，歡迎參加英特爾公司2019年第二季財報電話會議。（操作說明）提醒各位，今天的節目正在錄製中。現在，我謹向大家介紹今天節目的主持人，投資人關係主管馬克‧亨寧格。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, operator, and welcome, everyone, to Intel's Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. By now, you should have received a copy of our earnings release and the earnings presentation. If you've not received both documents, they're available on our investor website, intc.com. The earnings presentation is also available in the webcast window for those joining us online.

謝謝接線員，歡迎各位參加英特爾第二季財報電話會議。現在，您應該已經收到我們的獲利報告和獲利簡報了。如果您尚未收到這兩份文件，它們可以在我們的投資者網站 intc.com 上找到。在線上觀看的朋友也可以透過網路直播視窗觀看業績報告。

I'm joined today by our CEO, Bob Swan; and our CFO, George Davis. In a moment, we'll hear brief remarks from both of them followed by Q&A.

今天與我一同出席的有我們的執行長鮑勃·斯旺和財務長喬治·戴維斯。稍後，我們將聽到他們兩人的簡短講話，然後是問答環節。

Before we begin, let me remind everyone that today's discussion contains forward-looking statements based on the environment as we currently see it and as such does include risks and uncertainties. Please refer to our press release for more information on the specific risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially.

在開始之前，請允許我提醒大家，今天的討論包含基於我們目前所見環境的前瞻性陳述，因此確實存在風險和不確定性。有關可能導致實際結果與預期結果存在重大差異的具體風險因素的更多信息，請參閱我們的新聞稿。

A brief reminder that this quarter, we have provided both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. Today, we will be speaking to the non-GAAP financial measures when describing our consolidated results. The earnings presentation and earnings release available on intc.com include the full GAAP and non-GAAP reconciliations.

簡單提醒一下，本季我們同時提供了GAAP和非GAAP財務指標。今天，我們將結合非GAAP財務指標來介紹我們的合併績效。intc.com 上提供的收益簡報和收益發布包括完整的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 調整表。

With that, let me hand it over to Bob.

那麼，就讓我把麥克風交給鮑伯吧。

Thanks, Mark. The second quarter was significantly stronger than we forecasted in April, and our results demonstrated our customers' preference for the performance of Intel XPUs as workloads grow, diversify and become increasingly complex. That need for performance manifested in strong mix in ASPs across the business. Our Q2 results are proof points for the megatrends that underpin our strategy. The world's insatiable appetite for data is driving demand for solutions to process, store and move it faster and better. Customers want to work with partners who can deliver performance and platforms to address their most important technology challenges.

謝謝你，馬克。第二季業績明顯強於我們四月份的預測，我們的業績表明，隨著工作負載的成長、多樣化和日益複雜化，我們的客戶更傾向於選擇性能卓越的英特爾 XPU。對績效的需求體現在公司各業務部門ASP產品的多元化組合。我們第二季的業績證明了支撐我們策略的大趨勢。世界對資料永無止境的需求，推動了對更快、更好地處理、儲存和傳輸資料的解決方案的需求。客戶希望與能夠提供高效能平台以應對其最重要技術挑戰的合作夥伴合作。

Our data-centric businesses overall performed roughly in line with our April expectations. Data center and IoTG customers chose our highest-performing products leading to strong mix in ASPs. While our cloud customers absorb capacity they put in place over the last year, we continue to expect cloud demand to improve in the second half. Enterprise and government spending remains weak, however, particularly in China.

我們以數據為中心的業務整體表現基本上符合我們四月份的預期。資料中心和物聯網客戶選擇了我們表現最佳的產品，從而在 ASP 中取得了強勁的業績。雖然我們的雲端客戶正在消化過去一年中部署的容量，但我們仍然預計下半年雲端需求將會改善。然而，企業和政府支出依然疲軟，尤其是在中國。

PC demand continued to improve, particularly in the commercial segment. We now expect the PC TAM to be up slightly for the full year. Strong demand for our highest-performing products and the productivity and TCO gains they deliver continues.

個人電腦需求持續改善，尤其是在商業領域。我們現在預計全年PC TAM將略有成長。市場對我們性能最佳的產品及其帶來的生產力和總擁有成本效益的強勁需求仍在持續。

Mix was stronger than we anticipated. While small core supply improved, we were not able to fully satisfy customer demand for these SKUs in the second quarter. Tariffs and trade uncertainties created anxiety across our customers supply chain and drove a pull-in of client CPU orders into the second quarter.

混合效果比我們預期的要好。雖然小批量核心產品的供應有所改善，但我們在第二季仍未能完全滿足客戶對這些 SKU 的需求。關稅和貿易的不確定性給客戶的供應鏈帶來了焦慮，並導致客戶的 CPU 訂單推遲到第二季。

We also halted shipments to certain customers in response to the U.S. government's revised entity list. After a thorough review, we were able to resume shipments of some products in compliance with regulations and the net impact on the second quarter was limited. While we hope and expect trade issues to be resolved, further tightening of export restrictions would come with revenue risk to our business. As a result, we enter the second half of the year a little more cautious than we were 90 days ago.

為回應美國政府修訂後的實體清單，我們也暫停了向某些客戶的出貨。經過徹底審查，我們得以在遵守規定的前提下恢復部分產品的出貨，對第二季的淨影響有限。雖然我們希望並期待貿易問題能夠解決，但進一步收緊出口限制將為我們的業務帶來收入風險。因此，我們進入下半年時比90天前更加謹慎。

We met with many of you in May at our investor meeting where we outlined 3 major thrusts of our game plan to transform our company and grow. First, we're pursuing the largest opportunity in our company's history, a nearly $300 billion TAM comprised not just of CPUs for PCs and servers but of XPUs and adjacent technologies for an incredibly wide range of workloads and devices. Second, we're strengthening our product leadership by accelerating the rate of innovation. And third, we're evolving our culture and improving our execution so that we can play an even greater role in our customers' growth and success. I'll take a few minutes to share some of the progress we're making.

五月，我們在投資人會議上與大家見面，會上我們概述了公司轉型和發展的三大主要策略方向。首先，我們正在追求公司歷史上最大的機遇，一個近 3000 億美元的潛在市場，不僅包括用於 PC 和伺服器的 CPU，還包括用於極其廣泛的工作負載和設備的 XPU 和相關技術。其次，我們正在透過加快創新速度來鞏固我們的產品領先地位。第三，我們正在不斷改進企業文化和執行力，以便在客戶的成長和成功中發揮更大的作用。我花幾分鐘時間跟大家分享我們所取得的一些進展。

I'll start with expanding our opportunity and expanding our TAM. Over the last few years, we have dramatically expanded our served market while the PC market was declining. Our served market now is more than 5x larger and growing faster, and we have reallocated spending to expand our capabilities in higher-growth areas. We are evolving Intel Inside from a CPU inside a PC to XPUs inside everything that processes, stores and moves data. Big bets in 5G, AI and autonomous systems are an important part of this transformation.

首先，我要著手擴大我們的機會並擴大我們的潛在市場規模。過去幾年，在個人電腦市場下滑的同時，我們大幅擴大了服務市場。我們現在服務的市場規模是以前的 5 倍以上，而且成長速度更快，我們已經重新分配了支出，以擴大我們在高成長領域的能力。我們正在將 Intel Inside 技術從 PC 內部的 CPU 發展成為所有處理、儲存和傳輸資料的裝置中的 XPU。在 5G、人工智慧和自動駕駛系統領域的大力投資是這項轉型的重要組成部分。

In May, I outlined a disciplined framework for investing in and evaluating big bets as we expand into new markets. First, we'll invest where we have an opportunity to lead major technology inflections. Second, our investments should allow us to play a larger role in our customers' success. And finally, they must show a clear path to profitability and attractive returns.

五月份，我概述了一個嚴謹的投資框架，用於在拓展新市場時進行大額投資和評估。首先，我們會投資那些我們有機會引領重大技術變革的領域。其次，我們的投資應該使我們能夠在客戶的成功中發揮更大的作用。最後，他們必須展現出一條清晰的獲利路徑和可觀的回報。

Network infrastructure, which is transforming as the industry transitions to 5G, is one of our most important areas of investment, and we are laser-focused on this opportunity. This business has grown at a 40% CAGR since 2014 from just over $1 billion in revenue to more than $4 billion last year. The network cloudification that comes with 5G expands our opportunity in the core network and at the edge as more data moves closer to where it is created.

隨著產業向 5G 轉型，網路基礎設施也在發生變革，這是我們最重要的投資領域之一，我們正全力掌握這項機會。自 2014 年以來，該業務的複合年增長率達到 40%，收入從略高於 10 億美元增長到去年的超過 40 億美元。5G 帶來的網路雲化擴大了我們在核心網路和邊緣的機遇，因為更多的資料會移動到更靠近其創建位置的地方。

We expect to be in production on Snow Ridge, Intel's 10-nanometer system-on-chip technology for 5G base stations early next year. We've already announced that 2 large telecom equipment manufacturers have committed to this architecture, and we're on track to 40% share in this market segment by 2022.

我們預計明年初開始量產英特爾的 10 奈米製程的 5G 基地台系統晶片技術 Snow Ridge。我們已經宣布，兩家大型電信設備製造商已承諾採用這種架構，我們預計在 2022 年之前在該細分市場佔據 40% 的份額。

While the 5G network opportunity meets each of our investment criteria, the 5G smartphone opportunity does not. This is why we decided to exit the 5G smartphone modem business and conduct an analysis of our options for the remaining parts of that portfolio. Today, we announced the sale of the majority of our 5G smartphone modem business to Apple. This deal preserves Intel's access to critical IP we have developed. It enables us to focus on the more profitable 5G network opportunity where we are growing and winning share.

雖然 5G 網路機會符合我們的每項投資標準，但 5G 智慧型手機機會卻不符合。這就是為什麼我們決定退出 5G 智慧型手機數據機業務，並對該業務組合剩餘部分的各種選擇進行分析的原因。今天，我們宣布將我們大部分 5G 智慧型手機數據機業務出售給蘋果。這項協議保障了英特爾對我們開發的關鍵智慧財產權的使用權。這使我們能夠專注於利潤更高的 5G 網路機遇，我們在這個領域正在成長並贏得市場份額。

Another growth market we're gaining share is the Internet of Things. We are using our architecture, accelerators and software assets combined with unmatched scale and partners to develop one of the industry's fastest-growing IoT portfolios. Taken together, the IoTG and Mobileye businesses grew at 22% over last year after adjusting for the sale of Wind River. More intelligence is moving to the edge and more industries want to harness the power of data to create business value, innovate and grow. Devices and systems are becoming more autonomous. This is a trend IoTG is shaping and capitalizing on.

我們正在不斷擴大市場份額的另一個成長市場是物聯網。我們正在利用我們的架構、加速器和軟體資產，結合無與倫比的規模和合作夥伴，開發業內成長最快的物聯網產品組合之一。在扣除出售 Wind River 的影響後，IoTG 和 Mobileye 兩家公司的業務合計比去年增長了 22%。越來越多的智慧技術正在向邊緣轉移，越來越多的產業希望利用數據的力量來創造商業價值、創新和發展。設備和系統正變得越來越自主。這是IoTG正在塑造和利用的趨勢。

Our team's work is producing outstanding results. In the second quarter, we grew at roughly 3x the market rate and are positioned to significantly outgrow the market over time. Here again, we saw demand for performance and strength across all verticals we serve with computer vision being an especially critical workload.

我們團隊的工作取得了卓越的成果。第二季度，我們的成長速度約為市場平均的 3 倍，隨著時間的推移，我們有能力大幅超越市場成長速度。同樣，我們看到，在我們服務的所有垂直領域，對性能和強度都有很高的需求，其中電腦視覺尤其是一項至關重要的工作負載。

Mobileye is positioned to lead another huge opportunity, autonomous driving. This business has grown at more than 30% CAGR since we acquired them in 2017. Our market leadership continues to build momentum with 20 new design wins this year, representing 11 million lifetime units. Nissan's ProPILOT 2.0 and NIO's pilot vehicles have begun production featuring Mobileye-based L2+ system for hands-free assisted driving technology. I visited the Mobileye team in Israel last month and was treated to an autonomous ride through the streets of Jerusalem. The progress we are making in Level 4 and Level 5 autonomy is extraordinary. Our mobility as a service JV with VW for deploying a commercial robotaxi service in Tel Aviv by 2022 is on track. Global coverage of REM, or Road Experience Management, mobilized real-time crowdsourced mapping capability, is expanding rapidly. Several major auto OEMs, most recently Ford, are adopting this breakthrough data-centric capability.

Mobileye 已做好準備，引領自動駕駛這一巨大機會。自 2017 年收購以來，該業務的複合年增長率超過 30%。今年我們贏得了 20 個新的設計項目，市場領先地位持續鞏固，這些項目代表著 1,100 萬套終身使用量。日產的 ProPILOT 2.0 和蔚來的試點車輛已開始生產，配備了基於 Mobileye 的 L2+ 系統，可實現免手駕駛輔助技術。我上個月拜訪了位於以色列的 Mobileye 團隊，並體驗了一次在耶路撒冷街頭的自動駕駛之旅。我們在 4 級和 5 級自主學習方面取得的進展是非凡的。我們與大眾汽車合作的出行即服務合資項目，旨在2022年前在特拉維夫部署商業機器人計程車服務，目前進展順利。REM（道路體驗管理）的全球覆蓋範圍正在迅速擴大，它利用即時眾包地圖功能。包括福特在內的多家大型汽車製造商正在採用這項突破性的以數據為中心的技術。

To understand the power of this data, consider this: 1.5 million kilometers is sent to the cloud daily from BMW production vehicles. With the data collected from just the last 4 weeks, Mobileye was able to automatically map 94% of the German autobahn and motorway network. And the commercial opportunity for REM extends beyond real-time maps for vehicles. Since announcing the agreement earlier this year, Mobileye and Ordnance Survey have jointly launched a service that delivers high-precision road network location data to companies across multiple sectors.

為了了解這些數據的力量，請考慮以下情況：BMW生產車輛每天向雲端發送 150 萬公里的數據。僅憑過去 4 週收集的數據，Mobileye 就能夠自動繪製出 94% 的德國高速公路網路地圖。REM的商業機會不僅限於車輛的即時地圖。自今年稍早宣布達成協議以來，Mobileye 和英國地形測量局聯合推出了一項服務，向多個行業的公司提供高精度道路網路位置數據。

Artificial intelligence is a $10 billion data center silicon opportunity by 2023. And today, it's fueling cloud customer demand for solutions that accelerate demand in AI workloads. This is evidenced by the fact that key cloud customers, most recently Baidu, are collaborating on our Nervana Neural Network Processor for Training or NNP-T. NNP-T will sample to customers later this year, expanding our already diverse AI portfolio which spans multiple architectures, including ASICs like NNPI, TPUs, GPUs and FPGAs. All unified by single programming model, One API.

到 2023 年，人工智慧將為資料中心帶來 100 億美元的矽晶片市場機會。如今，這正在推動雲端客戶對能夠加速人工智慧工作負載需求的解決方案的需求。這一點可以從以下事實證明：主要雲端客戶（最近是百度）正在與我們的 Nervana 神經網路訓練處理器 (NNP-T) 合作。NNP-T 將於今年稍後向客戶提供樣品，進一步擴展我們現有的多元化 AI 產品組合，該產品組合涵蓋多種架構，包括 NNPI 等 ASIC、TPU、GPU 和 FPGA。所有功能都統一採用單一程式設計模型，即一個API。

The second major element of our game plan is extending product leadership by accelerating the rate of innovation. The future of computing will require a solution-oriented mindset building on 6 pillars of innovation. Over the last 50 years, Intel has delivered breakthrough after breakthrough in computing performance that has propelled technology and society forward. We are far from finished as our product and customer announcements over the last quarter demonstrate.

我們策略計畫的第二個主要要素是透過加快創新速度來擴大產品領先地位。電腦的未來需要以解決方案為導向的思維模式，並建立在六大創新支柱之上。過去 50 年來，英特爾在運算效能方面取得了一次又一次的突破，推動了科技和社會的發展。正如我們上個季度發布的產品和客戶公告所表明的那樣，我們的工作遠未結束。

Our Data Center Group just announced a very important strategic partnership with SAP to optimize Intel's platforms, including Xeon Scalable processors and Optane DC persistent memory for SAP's end-to-end enterprise software applications, including SAP S/4HANA. For over a decade, we have worked closely with SAP on developing differentiated breakthrough technologies that make organizations run more efficiently. The broadening of our strategic partnership with SAP will allow our mutual customers to accelerate their organization's digital transformation by deploying SAP business applications optimized for Intel-based infrastructure in the cloud, on-premises and in hybrid environments.

我們的資料中心集團剛剛宣布與 SAP 建立一項非常重要的戰略合作夥伴關係，旨在優化英特爾的平台，包括 Xeon 可擴展處理器和 Optane 資料中心持久內存，以用於 SAP 的端到端企業軟體應用程序，包括 SAP S/4HANA。十多年來，我們與 SAP 緊密合作，開發差異化的突破性技術，使企業能夠更有效率地運作。我們與 SAP 擴大策略合作夥伴關係，將使我們的共同客戶能夠透過在雲端、本地和混合環境中部署針對基於英特爾的基礎架構優化的 SAP 業務應用程序，加速其組織的數位轉型。

Our ecosystem partners have already received Ice Lake server samples. We are making good progress on Ice Lake server and are now planning to start production wafers in the first half of 2020 with the volume ramp in the second half of the year.

我們的生態系統合作夥伴已經收到了 Ice Lake 伺服器樣品。我們在 Ice Lake 伺服器方面取得了良好進展，目前計劃在 2020 年上半年開始生產晶圓，並在下半年實現量產。

Both yield and defect density are ahead of schedule for our 10-nanometer data center products. Cascade Lake, which is ramping now, is on track to be one of our fastest ramping products ever, and we have a great solution for our customers in the first half of 2020 with Cooper Lake in the same platform as Ice Lake. We are working more deeply with our customers to understand their needs and become the partner that they rely on to innovate and grow their businesses. They challenge us. It's producing results, and it's making us better.

我們的 10 奈米資料中心產品的良率和缺陷密度均提前於規劃。Cascade Lake 目前正處於產能爬坡階段，預計將成為我們有史以來產能爬坡速度最快的產品之一。此外，在 2020 年上半年，我們透過與 Ice Lake 處於同一平台上的 Cooper Lake，為客戶提供了一個絕佳的解決方案。我們正與客戶進行更深入的合作，了解他們的需求，並成為他們創新和發展業務所依賴的合作夥伴。他們向我們發起挑戰。它正在產生效果，並且讓我們變得更好。

For example, in the second quarter, we announced a strategic partnership with Google to collaborate on Anthos, a new reference design based on the second-generation Xeon Scalable processor and an optimized Kubernetes software stack that will deliver increased workload portability to customers who want to take advantage of hybrid cloud environments. These deep customer engagements are frankly one of my favorite parts of the role.

例如，在第二季度，我們宣布與Google建立策略合作夥伴關係，共同開發 Anthos，這是一個基於第二代 Xeon 可擴展處理器和優化的 Kubernetes 軟體堆疊的新參考設計，它將為希望利用混合雲環境的客戶提供更高的工作負載可移植性。坦白說，與客戶進行深入交流是我最喜歡的工作內容之一。

We are constantly thinking about how we can help our data center customers harness the potential of data by processing, storing and moving it more efficiently. An essential part of the equation is interconnect technology, which is why we recently announced our intention to acquire Barefoot Networks. Barefoot Networks is an emerging leader in Ethernet switch silicon software with the programmability and flexibility necessary to meet the performance needs of the hyperscale cloud. We closed the transaction this week, and we are excited to have the Barefoot team as part of the Intel family.

我們一直在思考如何幫助資料中心客戶更有效率地處理、儲存和傳輸數據，從而充分發揮數據的潛力。互連技術是其中至關重要的一部分，這也是我們最近宣布有意收購 Barefoot Networks 的原因。Barefoot Networks 是乙太網路交換器晶片軟體的新興領導者，其可程式性和靈活性足以滿足超大規模雲端的效能需求。我們本週完成了交易，我們很高興 Barefoot 團隊成為英特爾大家庭的一員。

Our client computing customers can look forward to exciting new Intel products this year. In the second quarter, we launched a special edition of the world's best gaming processor, the Core i9-9900KS. We also launched our new 10th Gen Core product family codenamed Ice Lake, which integrates WiFi 6, Gen11 graphics and AI acceleration.

今年，我們的客戶端運算客戶可以期待英特爾推出令人興奮的新產品。第二季度，我們推出了全球最佳遊戲處理器 Core i9-9900KS 的特別版。我們也推出了代號為 Ice Lake 的全新第十代酷睿產品系列，該系列整合了 WiFi 6、第 11 代圖形處理和 AI 加速功能。

While we are delivering on the present, we are also creating the future. Intel Labs is researching completely new architectures like quantum and neuromorphic computing that promise incredible leaps in performance and power efficiency. Neuromorphic computing strives to emulate the neural structure and operation of the human brain, which could deliver big advancements in artificial intelligence by allowing computers to sense, learn and behave more naturally and efficiently. Just this month, we announced an 8 million neuron neuromorphic system comprising 64 Intel Loihi research chips that's now available to the broader research community.

在做好當下工作的同時，我們也在創造未來。英特爾實驗室正在研究量子運算和神經形態運算等全新架構，這些架構有望在效能和能源效率方面實現驚人的飛躍。神經形態運算致力於模擬人腦的神經結構和運作方式，使電腦能夠更自然、更有效率地感知、學習和行動，從而在人工智慧領域取得巨大進步。就在本月，我們發布了一款包含 64 個英特爾 Loihi 研究晶片的 800 萬個神經元神經形態系統，現在該系統已向更廣泛的研究界開放。

Finally, we are evolving our culture and improving execution because our customers are counting on us. Our process technology road map continues to improve, and we're making excellent progress on 10-nanometer. We began shipping Ice Lake client in the second quarter supporting systems on the shelf for the holiday selling season and expect to ship Agilex, our first 10-nanometer FPGA later this year. We now have 2 factories in full production on 10-nanometer. We are also on track to launch 7-nanometer in 2021. With a roughly 2x improvement in density over 10-nanometer, our 7-nanometer process, which will be comparable to competitors' 5-nanometer nodes, will put us on pace with the historical Moore's Law scaling.

最後，我們正在改進企業文化並提升執行力，因為我們的客戶對我們寄予厚望。我們的製程技術路線圖不斷改進，我們在 10 奈米技術方面取得了卓越的進展。我們在第二季開始交付 Ice Lake 用戶端，為假日銷售季的現貨系統提供支持，並預計將於今年稍後交付我們的首款 10 奈米 FPGA Agilex。我們現在有兩家工廠全面投產10奈米製程產品。我們預計在 2021 年推出 7 奈米製程製程。與 10 奈米製程相比，我們的 7 奈米製程密度提高了約 2 倍，與競爭對手的 5 奈米節點相當，這將使我們與歷史上的摩爾定律的擴展速度保持一致。

We're also making steady progress increasing CPU supply. Through our investments, focused execution and tighter customer collaboration, we expect our PC CPU supply will be up mid-single digits this year while we expect the PC TAM to grow slightly. We'll continue to work with our customers to meet their required product mix and ramp additional capacity to ensure we are not a constraint on their growth.

我們在增加CPU供應方面也取得了穩定進展。透過我們的投資、專注的執行和更緊密的客戶合作，我們預計今年我們的 PC CPU 供應量將實現個位數中段的成長，同時我們預計 PC TAM 將略有成長。我們將繼續與客戶合作，滿足他們所需的產品組合，並提高產能，以確保我們不會成為他們成長的瓶頸。

A final point of pride in the second quarter that speaks to Intel's values is the release of our annual Corporate Responsibility Report, which highlights the progress made over the last year toward our 2020 goals around environmental sustainability, supply chain responsibility, diversity and inclusion and social impact. We achieved a number of our 2020 goals ahead of schedule: energy conservation, nonhazardous waste recycling, workforce diversity and technology empowerment. Being responsible stewards of the communities in which we operate is central to our culture and it is helping us transform and deliver the results you expect of us. I'm proud of what our team has accomplished over the last quarter and look forward to sharing more proof points of our progress with you in the coming months.

第二季最後一個值得驕傲的亮點是英特爾年度企業責任報告的發布，該報告重點介紹了過去一年我們在環境永續性、供應鏈責任、多元化和包容性以及社會影響方面為實現 2020 年目標所取得的進展。我們提前實現了 2020 年的多項目標：節能、無害廢棄物回收、員工多元化和技術賦能。對我們營運所在社區的負責任管理是我們文化的核心，它幫助我們轉型並取得您期望的成果。我為我們團隊在過去一個季度所取得的成就感到自豪，並期待在接下來的幾個月與大家分享更多我們取得進展的證據。

With that, I'll hand off to George, who will take you through the financial details.

接下來，我會把麥克風交給喬治，他會為大家詳細介紹財務細節。

Thanks, Bob, and good afternoon, everyone. We had a solid Q2 with revenue coming in at $16.5 billion, down 3% year-on-year and higher by $900 million compared to our guide. Data-centric revenue was $7.7 billion, down 7%. And PC-centric revenue was $8.8 billion, up 1% year-on-year. Our Q2 operating margin was 31%, down 2 points as client ASP strength was more than offset by platform volume declines and continued NAND pricing degradation.

謝謝你，鮑勃，大家下午好。我們第二季業績穩健，營收達 165 億美元，年減 3%，但比我們預期高出 9 億美元。資料中心業務收入為 77 億美元，下降 7%。以個人電腦為中心的收入為 88 億美元，年增 1%。第二季營業利潤率為 31%，下降 2 個百分點，原因是顧客平均售價的成長被平台銷售下降和 NAND 快閃記憶體價格持續走低所抵銷。

Q2 earnings per share came in at $1.06, up 2% year-on-year and $0.17 over our guide for the quarter. Year-to-date, we have generated $5.7 billion of free cash flow, returned $8.4 billion to shareholders, paid dividends of $2.8 billion and repurchased approximately 117 million shares.

第二季每股收益為 1.06 美元，年增 2%，比我們先前對該季度的預期高出 0.17 美元。今年迄今為止，我們已產生 57 億美元的自由現金流，向股東返還了 84 億美元，支付了 28 億美元的股息，並回購了約 1.17 億股股票。

As mentioned last quarter, we anticipated a more challenging year in 2019 coming off a large build-out of capacity in 2018 by DCG customers as well as the pricing dynamics in memory, which is largely playing out as expected. In light of these factors, I'm pleased with our results and operating performance for the quarter.

正如上個季度所提到的，由於 DCG 客戶在 2018 年大規模擴容以及記憶體價格動態，我們預計 2019 年將面臨更具挑戰性的一年，而這種情況在很大程度上正按預期發生。鑑於以上因素，我對本季的業績和經營表現感到滿意。

Non-GAAP EPS was up 2% year-over-year driven by strength in our platform ASPs, lower 10-nanometer startup costs, lower operating expenses as well as lower shares outstanding and a McAfee dividend. Offsetting factors were data-centric demand softness, continued NAND pricing pressure and PC supply constraints impacting our ability to fulfill low-end PC demand. Our non-GAAP tax rate came in at around 12%, in line with last year.

非GAAP每股盈餘年增2%，這主要得益於我們平台平均售價的強勁成長、10奈米技術啟動成本的降低、營運費用的降低以及流通股數量的減少和McAfee分紅。抵銷因素包括資料中心需求疲軟、NAND快閃記憶體價格持續承壓以及PC供應受限，這些因素影響了我們滿足低端PC需求的能力。我們的非GAAP稅率約為12%，與去年持平。

Let's now turn to segment performance. Our Data Center Group ended the quarter with revenue at $5 billion, down 10% from the prior year and up 2% sequentially. This was slightly ahead of our expectations with platform ASPs up 2% year-on-year. Xeon ASPs were up double digits year-on-year on mix as our customers continue to select high-performance products. Against the tough year-over-year compare, platform units were down 12%.

現在我們來看看細分市場的表現。我們的資料中心集團本季營收為 50 億美元，較上年同期下降 10%，較上季成長 2%。平台平均售價年增 2%，略高於我們的預期。由於客戶持續選擇高性能產品，Xeon 的平均售價較去年同期成長兩位數。由於年比基數較高，平台銷量下降了 12%。

Cloud revenue was down 1% year-over-year as cloud service providers absorbed capacity after growing demand 40% in 2018. Enterprise and government revenue declined by 31% with particular weakness in China, while communication service providers revenue increased 3% year-over-year. We see comms service provider demand still in the early phase of a meaningful 5G-related build-out.

由於雲端服務供應商在 2018 年需求成長 40% 後吸收了部分容量，雲端收入較去年同期下降 1%。企業和政府收入下降了 31%，其中中國市場表現尤為疲軟；而通訊服務提供商營收年增了 3%。我們看到通訊服務提供者的需求仍處於有意義的 5G 相關建設的早期階段。

Overall, our other data-centric businesses were down 1% year-over-year or up 2%, excluding Wind River, on strength in our Internet of Things businesses, partially offset by ASP weakness in our memory business. Our Internet of Things businesses, which include IoTG and Mobileye, continue to show growth and delivered record revenue up 22%, excluding Wind River. IoTG showed strength across all segments with revenue growth of 23% year-over-year, excluding Wind River, and operating income growth of 21% on strong demand for higher-performance products in the quarter. We believe a portion of the revenue outperformance in IoTG is from tariff-related pull-ins.

總體而言，除 Wind River 外，我們其他以數據為中心的業務同比下降 1% 或增長 2%，這主要得益於物聯網業務的強勁表現，但部分被內存業務的平均售價疲軟所抵消。我們的物聯網業務（包括 IoTG 和 Mobileye）持續保持成長勢頭，營收創下歷史新高，成長 22%（不包括 Wind River）。IoTG 在所有業務部門均表現強勁，不包括 Wind River 在內的收入同比增長 23%，營業收入同比增長 21%，這得益於本季度對高性能產品的強勁需求。我們認為 IoTG 的部分收入超預期是由於關稅相關的吸引效應。

Our Mobileye revenue and operating margin were up year-over-year 16% and 20%, respectively, on continued ADAS penetration. Our memory business revenue was down 13% as the industry supply surplus continued to feed a deteriorating NAND pricing environment. NSG operating income weakened by approximately $220 million year-over-year. PSG revenue declined 5% year-over-year as softness in cloud and enterprise demand more than offset growth in 5G wireless. Advanced products, which includes those manufactured on 28-nanometer through 14-nanometer process nodes, grew 15% year-on-year. PSG operating margin was down 49% year-over-year on lower revenue, product mix and 10-nanometer road map investments.

由於 ADAS 的持續滲透，我們的 Mobileye 營收和營業利潤率分別年增了 16% 和 20%。由於行業供應過剩持續導致 NAND 快閃記憶體價格環境惡化，我們的記憶體業務收入下降了 13%。NSG 的營業收入年減了約 2.2 億美元。由於雲端和企業需求疲軟，抵消了 5G 無線業務的成長，PSG 營收年減 5%。包括採用 28 奈米至 14 奈米製程節點製造的先進產品在內的產品，較去年同期成長 15%。由於收入下降、產品組合變化以及對 10 奈米技術路線圖的投資，PSG 的營業利潤率比去年同期下降了 49%。

The Client Computing Group demonstrated strong execution this quarter with revenue up 1% year-over-year on mix-driven ASP strength, strong demand in commercial PCs and modems and $200 million to $300 million in revenue from order pull-ins due to trade and tariff concerns. We believe the PC TAM grew slightly in Q2 led by our commercial PC demand.

客戶端運算集團本季業績表現強勁，營收年增 1%，這得益於產品組合帶來的 ASP 優勢、商用 PC 和調變解調器的強勁需求，以及因貿易和關稅問題而增加的訂單帶來的 2 億至 3 億美元的收入。我們認為，在第二季度，PC TAM 略有成長，這主要得益於我們對商用 PC 的需求。

Our PC units were down 5% as our small core supply was constrained and we could not fulfill all of our customer demand. We have made significant progress against our supply challenges, and we expect supply and demand to return to balance in the second half. That said, demand has been stronger than expected and product mix will continue to be a challenge in the third quarter as our teams work to align available supply with demand.

由於我們的小型核心零件供應受限，無法滿足所有客戶的需求，我們的PC銷售量下降了5%。我們在應對供應挑戰方面取得了顯著進展，預計下半年供需將恢復平衡。儘管如此，市場需求仍強於預期，產品組合在第三季仍將是一個挑戰，因為我們的團隊正在努力使現有供應與需求相符。

We saw strong ASPs in the quarter with notebook ASPs up 3% year-over-year and desktop ASPs up 5%. Operating margin for our client group was 42%, up 5 points year-on-year on strong revenue and mix and lower cost of sales post qualification of our 10-nanometer Ice Lake client product.

本季我們看到平均售價表現強勁，其中筆記型電腦平均售價年增 3%，桌上型電腦平均售價較去年同期成長 5%。由於我們 10 奈米 Ice Lake 客戶產品獲得認證後，營收和產品組合強勁成長，銷售成本降低，客戶群的營業利潤率為 42%，較去年同期成長 5 個百分點。

For the first 2 quarters, we generated $12.5 billion in operating cash flow and we invested $6.9 billion in capital to ramp 10-nanometer capacity and for 7-nanometer product development. We also spent $5.6 billion to repurchase 117 million shares to date. Buyback was accelerated in the second quarter where our average purchase price was $46.78 per share. We have $11.7 billion remaining on our Board authorization.

前兩個季度，我們產生了 125 億美元的營運現金流，並投資了 69 億美元用於擴大 10 奈米產能和進行 7 奈米產品開發。迄今為止，我們還花了 56 億美元回購了 1.17 億股股票。第二季我們加快了股票回購步伐，平均回購價格為每股 46.78 美元。我們董事會授權的剩餘資金為117億美元。

Now let's talk about the full year outlook. For the full year, the market dynamics reflected in our April guide remain largely in place although memory has continued to weaken relative to our expectations. Although we have seen a weaker first half in our data center business, we expect a better second half as demand from cloud and comms service providers improves and our second gen Xeon Scalable continues to ramp.

現在我們來談談全年展望。儘管市場記憶相對於我們的預期有所減弱，但就全年而言，我們在 4 月的指導方針中反映出的市場動態基本上保持不變。儘管我們的資料中心業務上半年表現疲軟，但我們預計下半年會有所好轉，因為雲端和通訊服務供應商的需求有所改善，而且我們的第二代 Xeon 可擴展處理器也在不斷擴大產能。

We are increasing our revenue outlook for the full year by $500 million to $69.5 billion to reflect the outperformance in the second quarter somewhat offset by the effect of trade-related pull-ins and a weaker memory environment. We continue to expect revenue from our data-centric businesses to be down low single digits for the full year. Our guidance for full year PC-centric business growth remains a low single-digit decline for the year, reflecting share loss in small core applications where we have been short supply longer than expected and demand has remained healthy. We expect to have additional small core supply in the second half, which should allow us to regain some of that lost share.

我們將全年營收預期上調 5 億美元至 695 億美元，以反映第二季業績超出預期，但部分被貿易相關的拉動效應和疲軟的記憶體市場環境所抵消。我們仍然預計，全年數據相關業務的收入將出現個位數百分比的下降。我們對全年以 PC 為中心的業務成長預期仍為個位數百分比的下降，這反映出我們在小型核心應用領域的市場份額有所下降，而這些領域的供應短缺時間比預期更長，需求依然旺盛。我們預計下半年會有更多小型核心產品供應，這應該能讓我們重新奪回一些失去的市場份額。

Operating margin for the year is expected to be 32%, flat to our previous guide. Full year expectations for gross margin are unchanged at approximately 60%. We expect Q3 gross margins to be roughly in line with Q2 on strong flow-through of higher revenue offset by increased 10-nanometer cost as we ramp production. The cost increase in Q3 will be tempered as we will be selling through some of the previously reserved 10-nanometer in the quarter, and we see the benefit of a grant related to our NAND factory in China. We expect Q4 gross margin to be down 3 to 3.5 points sequentially as we continue to ramp 10-nanometer and will have sold through the previously reserved inventory and will also not see the benefit of the NAND grant. We are making great progress on 10-nanometer and expect to see continued yield improvement as we move into 2020 and work through the cost curve.

預計全年營業利潤率為 32%，與我們先前的預期持平。全年毛利率預期維持在 60% 左右。我們預計第三季毛利率將與第二季大致持平，這主要得益於更高的收入帶來的強勁成長，但隨著我們提高產量，10 奈米製程成本的增加將抵消這一成長。第三季的成本成長將會得到緩解，因為我們將在本季售出一些之前預留的 10 奈米產品，我們也看到了與我們在中國的 NAND 工廠相關的補助金帶來的好處。我們預計第四季度毛利率將環比下降 3 至 3.5 個百分點，因為我們將繼續提高 10 奈米製程的產能，並且先前預留的庫存將售罄，同時我們也不會看到 NAND 授權帶來的好處。我們在 10 奈米製程方面取得了巨大進展，預計隨著我們進入 2020 年並逐步降低成本，良率將持續提高。

Full year spending is expected to be down almost $1 billion year-on-year in line with our prior outlook adjusted for costs related to our acquisition of Barefoot Networks. We are now expecting 2019 savings from our modem exit to rise to approximately $400 million to $500 million from our earlier estimates of $200 million to $300 million. The increased savings are being offset by higher spending on 10-nanometer and 7-nanometer processes and product R&D.

預計全年支出將年減近 10 億美元，與我們先前的預期一致，已扣除與收購 Barefoot Networks 相關的成本。我們現在預計，2019 年透過淘汰調變解調器節省的費用將從先前的 2 億至 3 億美元增加到約 4 億至 5 億美元。節省的資金被 10 奈米和 7 奈米製程以及產品研發方面的更高支出所抵消。

Earnings per share for the year is now expected to be $4.40, up $0.05 from our April guide, reflecting higher Q2 earnings offset somewhat by the impact of tariff pull-ins on the second half, weaker memory and a slightly higher full year tax rate. We now expect the non-GAAP tax rate for Q3 and Q4 to be approximately 13%, up slightly from our April guide as we anticipate a higher mix of our pretax income in the second half in higher tax domains.

目前預計全年每股收益為 4.40 美元，比我們 4 月份的預期高出 0.05 美元，這反映出第二季度收益增加，但部分被下半年關稅上調、記憶功能減弱以及全年稅率略高的影響所抵消。我們現在預計第三季和第四季的非GAAP稅率約為13%，略高於我們4月份的指導值，因為我們預計下半年稅前收入中來自高稅率領域的部分將佔比較高。

Turning to Q3 outlook. We expect revenue of $18 billion, up 9% sequentially, which is within our normal seasonal range after adjusting for trade-related pull-ins in Q2. Our data-centric and PC-centric businesses will be down mid-single digits year-over-year in Q3 against very challenging compares. We expect Q3 operating margin of 35% and non-GAAP EPS of $1.24 on higher sequential revenue particularly in PC, data center and IoT.

接下來展望第三季。我們預計營收將達到 180 億美元，環比成長 9%，在調整了第二季與貿易相關的成長後，這在我們正常的季節性範圍內。由於去年同期基數很高，我們以數據和個人電腦為中心的業務在第三季將同比下降個位數中段。我們預計第三季營業利潤率為 35%，非 GAAP 每股收益為 1.24 美元，主要得益於 PC、資料中心和物聯網業務收入的環比增長。

I will conclude here and turn the call back to Mark.

我將就此結束發言，並將電話轉回給馬克。

All right. Thank you, George. Moving on now to the Q&A. (Operator Instructions) Operator, please go and introduce our first caller.

好的。謝謝你，喬治。接下來進入問答環節。（操作員指示）操作員，請介紹我們的第一位來電者。

Our first question comes from the line of Chris Danely from Citigroup.

我們的第一個問題來自花旗集團的克里斯·丹利。

Just a question on share expectations. I know in the Analyst Day, you expected the competitive environment to get a little more -- I guess a little more competitive, although it doesn't seem to happen in Q2. Maybe talk about how you expect your share to trend over the next 4 to 6 quarters in light of the competitor coming out with 7-nanometer and then you guys introducing 10-nanometer later on. Do you think you'll maybe lose share over the next 3 to 4 quarters and then gain it back? Or how should we think about things are going to play out?

關於股票預期，我有個問題。我知道在分析師日上，您預計競爭環境會變得更具競爭力——我猜是會變得更具競爭力一些，儘管這種情況似乎在第二季度並沒有發生。或許可以談談，鑑於競爭對手推出了 7 奈米技術，而你們之後又推出了 10 奈米技術，你們預計未來 4 到 6 個季度你們的市場份額將如何變化。你認為未來三到四個季度你的市佔率可能會下降，然後再重新奪回嗎？或者我們該如何看待事情的發展走向？

Chris, it's Bob. First, I would say that during the course of this year, as George mentioned in his prepared comments, we lost a little bit of share in the second quarter particularly in CSG at the lower end small core primarily due to supply constraints. And our expectation is that we'll begin to work our way back in the second half of the year given the capacity we put in place to have more supply and meet our customers' demands.

克里斯，我是鮑伯。首先，我想說的是，正如喬治在他準備好的評論中提到的那樣，今年第二季度我們失去了一些市場份額，尤其是在低端小核心煤層氣領域，這主要是由於供應限製造成的。我們預計，鑑於我們已經投入更多資源來增加供應，以滿足客戶的需求，我們將在今年下半年開始逐步恢復正常營運。

But stepping back and just looking at the macro environment over the next several years and particularly in the second half of the year on the data center side, what we've indicated is it will be a much more competitive environment. Our intentions are with a -- not a 90% share position, but more like a 23% share position that we have significant prospects for growth across multiple aspects of our business. And our intentions are over the -- over that time frame to continue to grow our data-centric collection of businesses at or above market rates of growth. And that's consistent with what we said back in January. We reiterated it again at our May Investor Day and nothing's really changed from that standpoint.

但退後一步，從宏觀角度來看未來幾年，特別是下半年資料中心領域的情況來看，我們已經證明，競爭環境將更加激烈。我們的意圖是──不是90%的股份，而是23%左右的股份，這樣我們在業務的多個方面都有著巨大的成長前景。我們的目標是在這段時間內，繼續以市場成長率或更高成長率發展我們以數據為中心的企業集合。這與我們一月所說的一致。我們在五月的投資者日上再次重申了這一點，從這個角度來看，沒有任何實質的變化。

Our next question comes from the line of Ross Seymore from Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅斯·西摩。

Okay. So a 2-part question on the Data Center Group. I guess first and foremost, could you just discuss a little bit about the differences between the subsegments? The cloud side was impressively strong in the quarter and it sounds like you think that's going to continue. But the enterprise and government side, I know you said that was China specific, but that was exceedingly weak. Any more color on what's going on on that enterprise side in the current quarter and probably of equal, if not greater importance, the second half looks like you still expect a really big ramp and potentially better than seasonal. What gives you the confidence in the second half ramp in DCG?

好的。所以，關於資料中心集團的問題分為兩部分。首先，您能否簡單談談各個子細分市場之間的差異？本季雲端市場表現非常強勁，聽起來你認為這種勢頭將會持續下去。但是企業和政府方面，我知道您說過這是中國特有的問題，但這方面確實非常薄弱。關於本季企業方面的情況，以及同樣重要（甚至更重要）的下半年，似乎仍有望大幅成長，並可能優於季節性水準。是什麼讓你對DCG下半季的復甦充滿信心？

Ross, it's Bob. I'll comment and then George will pile on. First, on growth overall, we had -- cloud, I'd still put in the relatively soft category to the first half of the year as the cloud players continue to digest. And our expectations have been and still are that cloud will get a little bit stronger as we go into the second half. And as George mentioned, comms has been low single digits as our customers begin to build up for the transition to 5G, so we expect that growth to probably materialize more as we go into the latter part of this year, but I think more in 2020.

羅斯，我是鮑伯。我先評論一下，然後喬治會跟著評論。首先，就整體成長而言，雲端運算方面，我仍然認為上半年的成長相對疲軟，因為雲端運算企業仍在消化成長帶來的影響。我們一直以來的預期是，進入下半年後，雲量會稍微增加一些。正如喬治所提到的，由於我們的客戶開始為向 5G 過渡做準備，通訊業務的成長率一直保持在個位數，因此我們預計這種成長可能會在今年下半年更加明顯，但我認為會在 2020 年更加明顯。

Enterprise and government has been brutal through the first 6 months of the year. Q1 was really soft. Q2 was even softer. And while we don't like it, it's been pretty much in line with how we expected the first half and even the second half of the year to kind of play out. A couple of dynamics. You'll remember last year was really strong for enterprise and government. Growth was much stronger than we expected. Our belief at the time is that that was largely a function of increased digital transformation by CIOs, a favorable tax reform environment that gave them a little more capacity to spend. And we benefited from that tremendously last year.

今年前六個月，企業和政府都面臨嚴峻的挑戰。Q1 真的太軟了。Q2 的難度甚至更低。雖然我們不喜歡這樣，但這與我們對今年上半年甚至下半年的發展預期基本一致。一些動態因素。你可能還記得，去年企業和政府部門的業績都非常強勁。成長勢頭遠超預期。我們當時認為，這主要是由於資訊長們加大了數位轉型力度，以及有利的稅改環境使他們有更大的支出能力。去年我們從中受益匪淺。

So the first half of this year, even the second half comps -- our comps are much tougher. And I would say our sense is that CIOs, broadly speaking, are a little more cautious as they go into the second half of the year. And then when you just take -- that's a broad-based comment. And then when you take China into account, China is even worse than that. So our thoughts through the first half of the year and even going into the second half of the year is the E&G environment won't get dramatically better. Cloud will get a little bit stronger and comms will get a little bit stronger in the context of our overall full year guide.

所以今年上半年，甚至下半年的比賽——我們的比賽都更加艱難。而且我認為，總的來說，資訊長們在進入下半年時會更加謹慎。然後當你只是簡單地說——這是一個比較廣泛的評論。而如果把中國考慮進去，中國的情況甚至更糟。因此，我們認為今年上半年甚至下半年，能源和天然氣環境都不會有顯著改善。在我們的全年整體規劃中，雲端運算和通訊業務將會略有增強。

Yes. I would just add that we -- again, we saw enterprise and government down 31% year-over-year. I would say maybe a little bit weaker than even we were forecasting, which is for a pretty weak performance in that group. But in general, I wouldn't add any more to what Bob said.

是的。我還要補充一點，我們看到企業和政府的支出較去年同期下降了 31%。我認為可能比我們預測的還要弱一些，而我們預測的這個組的表現已經相當糟糕了。但總的來說，我不會在鮑伯所說的基礎上補充任何內容。

Our next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon from Bernstein Research.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究公司的史黛西·拉斯貢。

So we have gross margins coming down into Q4, you're probably in the low to mid 58%s. And I know at the Analyst Day, you had sort of given an indication for gross margins in like the 2021 time frame to be around 57% on a $77 billion number. I guess how do we think about the trajectory from where we're exiting this year to the gross margin profile in 2021? Does that imply that 2020 gross margins should be down from obviously 2019 and 2021 should be down from 2020? And then what happens if you actually don't hit your revenue guidance of $77 billion in 2021 because the margin impact is mostly fixed? Does that imply margins come down even more in that case?

因此，第四季的毛利率將會下降，可能在 58% 左右。我知道在分析師日上，您曾表示，預計 2021 年毛利率將在 770 億美元的營收基礎上達到 57% 左右。我想我們該如何看待從今年結束時的狀況到 2021 年毛利率走勢的轉變？這是否意味著 2020 年的毛利率應該比 2019 年下降，而 2021 年的毛利率應該會比 2020 年下降？那麼，如果2021年營收目標770億美元實際上未能實現，又會發生什麼事呢？因為利潤率受到的影響基本上是固定的。那是否意味著在這種情況下利潤率會進一步下降？

I think -- Stacy, it's George. We did say that we think we'll bottom out at 57% in '21. We didn't guide specifically for '20 but implied it would be closer to the 60% range. And I would say, one of the things that's going to help us -- two things that are probably going to help us as we think about 2019 to 2020, one is we're going to see more of the benefit of moving up the yield curve in 10-nanometer, which is pretty painful now, and you're seeing that really in the fourth quarter gross margin.

我想－－史泰西，是喬治。我們確實說過，我們認為 2021 年我們將跌至 57% 的低點。我們沒有具體說明 2020 年的情況，但暗示會接近 60% 的範圍。我想說，有兩件事可能會對我們有所幫助——其中一件是，在展望 2019 年到 2020 年時，我們將看到 10 奈米製程收益率曲線向上移動帶來的更多好處，而現在這相當痛苦，你會在第四季度的毛利率中看到這一點。

I would also say though, you're seeing a really pure impact of memory in the fourth quarter as well because they -- we have a grant in the third quarter. So you're going to see a sequential step down just because of the absence of the grant and it just tells you how much the impact on gross margin overall for the DC-centric group has been because of memory. I think memory, if we can start to see improvement on that in 2020 -- and there's some evidence of firming of the ASPs, but probably too early to call that. I think that could also be a factor.

不過我也想說，在第四季度，你也看到了記憶力的真正純粹的影響，因為他們——我們在第三季度獲得了一筆撥款。因此，由於缺乏撥款，你會看到業績逐步下滑，這也說明了由於資金短缺，以 DC 為中心的集團的整體毛利率受到了多大的影響。我認為，如果我們能在 2020 年開始看到記憶力有所改善——而且有一些證據表明平均售價正在走強，但現在下結論可能還為時過早。我認為這也可能是個因素。

But you're also seeing growth in our adjacent businesses, which have attractive margins. They'll continue to grow into 2020. And like I said, I think largely it's going to be 10-nanometer yield curve benefits, maybe a little bit improving memory and then improving adjacent businesses should be a little more positive than what we're seeing purely in Q4.

但您也會看到我們相關業務的成長，這些業務利潤率很高。它們將持續成長到2020年。正如我所說，我認為這主要得益於 10 奈米製程良率曲線的提升，或許內存性能的略微改善，以及相關業務的改善，這些都應該比我們在第四季度看到的要好一些。

Our next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Timothy Arcuri。

I had a question for George. So George, I'm just trying to figure out the incremental accretion from the sale of the modem business. It doesn't seem like a lot of it is dropping through to the op margin because you're investing more in 7- and 10-nanometer. So I'm just wondering why that would be the case if yields are on track.

我有個問題想問喬治。喬治，我只是想弄清楚出售調變解調器業務帶來的增量收益。似乎沒有太多利潤流入營運利潤率，因為你們在 7 奈米和 10 奈米製程上投入了更多資金。所以我想知道，如果收益率按計劃進行，為什麼會發生這種情況。

Well, one of the things that we talked about, Tim, was trying to pull in as much as possible both the 10-nanometer and 7-nanometer road map because we think the economics of that is more than worth the investment. And really, the investments we're making now are all focused on executing to that. We're going to see more accretion from this deal coming in the following year when we would expect a significant increase in the reduction in sort of the run rate OpEx for the piece that's going out at the end of the year. So maybe $400 million to $500 million this year, but you can probably double that number for next year, which we think will help on the total spending.

提姆，我們討論過的事情之一就是盡可能多地推進 10 奈米和 7 奈米製程路線圖，因為我們認為這方面的經濟效益絕對值得投資。事實上，我們現在所做的所有投資都是為了實現這一目標。明年我們將看到這筆交易帶來更多收益，屆時我們預計年底推出的那部分產品的營運支出將大幅下降。所以今年可能是 4 億到 5 億美元，但明年這個數字可能會翻一番，我們認為這將有助於提高總支出。

And the question is will we need to retain this higher level run rate that we're seeing today for acceleration fully into next year? I think there might be some opportunity there as well. But we're going to -- we're going to invest first in those things that we think drive yield improvement in 10 and product performance improvement in 10 and 7.

問題是，為了在明年全面加速發展，我們是否需要維持目前這種較高的運行速度？我認為那裡也可能存在一些機會。但是，我們將首先投資於我們認為能夠提高 10 年產量和提高 10 年及 7 年產品性能的那些事情。

Our next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的哈蘭‧蘇爾。

Maybe just again to kind of step back on the data-centric businesses. On the revised full year outlook, you're still guiding data-centric to be down low single digits year-over-year. Previously, within data-centric, you guys were looking for DCG specifically to be down mid-single digits year-over-year, which implies about 20% growth in DCG second half versus first half. Is that still how the team sees DCG for the full year?

或許我們只是想再次稍微減少對以數據為中心的業務的關注。根據修訂後的全年展望，您仍然預計以數據為中心的業務將同比下降個位數百分比。在此之前，在以數據為中心的領域，你們特別關注的是 DCG 同比下降個位數百分比，這意味著 DCG 下半年比上半年成長約 20%。團隊對DCG全年的展望是否依然如此？

I would say we're still roughly in that ballpark. We haven't really changed our view of the full year. There may be a little bit that slipped into the first half relative to our original second half expectations on the pull-ins even though it's more of an impact on the PC side that we saw a little bit of that in DCG. So now we're looking to a strong second half for DCG.

我認為我們大致還在那個範圍內。我們對全年的看法並沒有真正改變。儘管我們在 DCG 方面看到的影響更多體現在 PC 端，但我們最初對下半場的預期可能略有下降，因此上半場的拉動量可能略高於預期。所以我們現在期待DCG在下半年有強勁的表現。

Our next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行美林證券的維韋克·阿亞。

On inventory, they were up about 12% sequentially in terms of dollars. Now when I look at your second half sales, you're forecasting them to grow 13% to 14% half over half, so it kind of makes sense. But just inventory in terms of historical levels, it's still quite elevated given the macro conditions. So is this all 10-nanometer-related inventory? Just what's driving this? How do you see it trending in the second half? And will there be any impact on the gross margins from any utilization changes that might be needed?

庫存方面，以美元計算，季增約 12%。現在我看了一下你們下半年的銷售預測，你們預計下半年將比上半年成長 13% 到 14%，所以這在某種程度上是合理的。但僅從歷史水準來看，考慮到宏觀經濟情勢，庫存仍然相當高。所以這些都是與 10 奈米相關的庫存嗎？究竟是什麼原因導致這種情況發生？你覺得它在下半年會如何發展？如果需要進行任何利用率調整，這會對毛利率產生任何影響嗎？

Sure. Great question. And we're watching inventory very closely ourselves. The big bounce this quarter, as you suspected, was really about 10-nanometer within finished goods coming onto the balance sheet. And so there is actually some gross margin benefit, which we began to see this quarter and we'll see a little bit next quarter previously reserved inventory then flowing into the marketplace, so some gross margin benefit from that, and you've seen that in the CCG margins.

當然。問得好。我們自己也在密切關注庫存情況。正如你所料，本季最大的反彈實際上是成品資產負債表中出現的 10 奈米左右的成長。因此，實際上存在一些毛利率收益，我們本季開始看到這種收益，下個季度我們將看到一些先前預留的庫存流入市場，從而帶來一些毛利率收益，您在 CCG 利潤率中已經看到了這一點。

We -- yes, normally we'd be up going into the seasonally strong third and fourth quarters in this quarter. I would say overall that we think the adds this quarter, which are all related to 10-nanometer, make sense. I think we feel still that our inventory is higher than we would like in memory, and we will look to bring that down over time. It's a very tough market to bring it down in and then feel good about yourself. So we'll continue to watch that. But that's been part of the pressure on free cash flow has been some of these working capital, particularly inventory impacts.

是的，通常情況下，我們會在這個季度進入季節性強勢的第三和第四季。總的來說，我們認為本季新增的與 10 奈米相關的產品都是有意義的。我認為我們仍然覺得記憶體庫存高於預期，我們會努力逐步降低庫存水準。在這個競爭非常激烈的市場中，想要把股價壓低並讓自己感覺良好是非常困難的。所以我們會繼續關注此事。但自由現金流面臨的部分壓力來自於營運資本，特別是庫存方面的影響。

To George's point, while we're not big fans of growing inventory, we feel great about qualifying the Ice Lake product in the second quarter. And that qualification is the single biggest reason for the step function in inventory from Q1 to Q2. So we knew if we executed on our plans of the Ice Lake client qualification, we'd have a step-function in inventory and we feel good about getting that qualification done and behind us. The implications of that is the higher balance in Q2 versus Q1.

正如喬治所說，雖然我們不太喜歡增加庫存，但我們對在第二季成功推出 Ice Lake 產品感到非常滿意。而這項資格正是導致庫存從第一季到第二季出現階躍式成長的最大原因。所以我們知道，如果我們執行了冰湖客戶資格認證計劃，我們的庫存就會出現階躍式增長，我們對完成這項資格認證並把它拋在腦後感到很滿意。這意味著第二季的餘額高於第一季。

Our next question comes from the line of John Pitzer from Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰‧皮策。

Congratulations on the solid results. Maybe if I can go back to the gross margin from -- at the Q4 level, I'm just kind of curious, given that CapEx has been running significantly ahead of depreciation, I'm kind of curious if there's anything going on on the depreciation schedule, which is impacting the calendar fourth quarter gross margins. And George, to the extent that in the previous question you talked about maybe some tailwinds relative to the fourth quarter run rate next year in 2020, how do we think about the bridge from sort of the Q4 guide of kind of 58.5 to the Analyst Day guide for 2021 of 57, is that all just the impact of 7-nanometer coming on in that year? Or is there some price consideration? How should we conceptually think about that?

祝賀你們取得如此優異的成績。也許我可以回到第四季度的毛利率水平，我只是有點好奇，鑑於資本支出一直遠遠超過折舊，我很想知道折舊計劃是否有任何變化，從而影響到第四季度的毛利率。喬治，你在上一個問題中提到，2020 年第四季的運行率可能會有一些利多因素，那麼我們該如何看待從 2020 年第四季 58.5 的指導目標到 2021 年分析師日 57 的指導目標之間的過渡呢？這是否只是 7 奈米技術在 2021 年推出的影響？或者說，價格因素也是需要考慮的因素嗎？我們該如何從概念上理解這一點？

Okay, John. That's a great 3-part question. There's nothing unusual going on in depreciation in the fourth quarter. As I said, most of the impact is really related to -- we'll have gotten through all of the previously reserved 10-nanometer products, so you're going to see more pressure on gross margin from the products that are coming into the marketplace while we're still at the low end of the yield curve on 10-nanometer, which is where we are today.

好的，約翰。這是一個很好的三部分問題。第四季折舊方面並無異常情況。正如我所說，大部分影響實際上與以下情況有關——我們將完成之前預留的所有 10 奈米產品，因此你會看到，在我們仍處於 10 奈米良率曲線低端（也就是我們目前所處的階段）的情況下，進入市場的產品將對毛利率造成更大的壓力。

In 2020, how I think about 2020, I think we -- as I said earlier, we think we'll see a benefit from moving up the yield curve on 10-nanometer. We're pleased with our process work that's going on there now. And also, we would expect that memory, which has been a significant drag on gross margin this year, will help us a little bit overall. So no real change. Probably the easiest thing would have been to just go back to say no real change in our outlook that we gave at Analyst Day in terms of the gross margin trajectory over the next few years.

就我而言，我認為 2020 年，正如我之前所說，我們認為我們將從 10 奈米製程良率曲線的提升中受益。我們對目前正在那裡進行的工藝工作感到滿意。此外，我們預計今年嚴重拖累毛利率的記憶體業務，整體上也會對我們有所幫助。所以沒有實質改變。最簡單的做法或許就是重申我們在分析師日上對未來幾年毛利率走勢的預期，即不會發生任何實質變化。

George, the only thing I would add on the depreciation while there's nothing kind of out of the norm, there are 2 fairly big dynamics that happen over the course of the next several months. One is over time, we have more and more of our 14-nanometer equipment that's fully depreciated. So as you know, that's been our engine for a while, and we'll have more and more fully depreciated assets that are at work. That's obviously favorable.

喬治，關於折舊，我唯一要補充的是，雖然沒有什麼特別異常的情況，但在接下來的幾個月裡，會出現兩個相當大的變化。一方面，隨著時間的推移，我們越來越多的 14 奈米設備已經完全折舊。如您所知，這（指資金）一直是我們的動力來源，而且我們將有越來越多的已完全折舊的資產投入使用。這顯然是有利的。

On the flip side, we have -- we talked about ramping 2 fabs and we've had a lot of assets under construction on our balance sheet that weren't being depreciated. So in one sense, you have a drop off from the life of 14-nanometer equipment. At the same time, you're deploying some of the 10-nanometer equipment that we bought previously. So those 2 things underneath the cover at the macro level to George's point, there's not a dramatic change. But underneath the covers there's 2 fairly big dynamics in the makeup of our equipment base and what's fully depreciated versus what's being put into service.

另一方面，我們討論過要擴建兩座晶圓廠，而且我們的資產負債表上有很多在建資產，這些資產還沒有進行折舊。所以從某種意義上來說，14 奈米設備的壽命有所下降。同時，你們正在部署我們之前購買的一些 10 奈米設備。所以，從宏觀層面來看，正如喬治所說，這兩件事的本質並沒有劇烈的變化。但實際上，我們的設備基礎構成有兩個相當大的動態變化，即哪些設備已經完全折舊，哪些設備正在投入使用。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Moore from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾。

You talked about the reasons for being a little more conservative about the second half than you felt 90 days ago, but your second half guidance isn't materially different than it was 90 days ago. So I guess how are you thinking that relative to the forecast? And I guess when you talk about pull-ins, like what is that -- I'm surprised that there is pull-ins at the same that there's shortages. So maybe you can just describe what the behavior is that's pulling revenue into Q2.

你談到了你對下半年業績比 90 天前更加保守的原因，但你對下半年的業績預期與 90 天前並沒有實質的不同。所以我想知道你覺得這和預測結果相比如何？我想，當你談到停車換乘時，那是什麼——我很驚訝，在出現短缺的同時，居然還有停車換乘。所以，或許您可以描述一下是什麼行為將收入推高到了第二季。

So again, for the second half, really for the full year, we're largely seeing the full year as we talked about it 90 days ago. What I think the biggest difference is just how strong you see demand has been and the pull-ins that came into the second quarter leading to a much stronger second quarter where we are passing obviously some of that through with the exception of the pull-ins to the full year. So I don't want to sound like we're going to -- we'll see the normal seasonal bounce and it will be a strong second half of the year for the company.

所以，再說一遍，對於下半年，實際上是對於全年，我們基本上會看到和90天前我們討論的全年情況一樣的情況。我認為最大的區別在於需求的強勁程度，以及第二季度出現的大量新增訂單，這導致第二季業績更加強勁，我們顯然將其中一部分業績傳遞到了全年，但新增訂單除外。所以我不想聽起來像我們會——我們會看到正常的季節性反彈，公司下半年將會表現強勁。

And I think we're expecting a strong DCG improvement in the second half as they get through the capacity digestion. We think the PC is going to continue to be quite strong. So relative to our forecast, I guess I may be countering a little bit this idea of a weaker second half other than memory has been a little bit weaker than we had expected. ASPs are certainly down more, and so we're anticipating some pain from that. And then of course, some level of demand was pulled into the second quarter, but it's really reflective of a year that is playing out largely as we expected with some upside on PC TAM.

我認為，隨著產能消化工作的完成，我們預計下半年 DCG 將大幅改善。我們認為個人電腦（PC）將持續保持強勁勢頭。所以相對於我們的預測，我想我可能稍微反駁了下半年表現會更弱的觀點，只是記憶力確實比我們預期的要弱一些。平均售價肯定會下降更多，因此我們預計這會帶來一些損失。當然，部分需求被推遲到了第二季度，但這確實反映了今年的發展基本上符合我們的預期，個人電腦市場規模（TAM）也出現了一些增長。

Yes. And I think the only thing that I would add to that is relative to where we were in April looking out to the second half of the year, we still have the threat of tariffs going up for goods coming out of China and the implications of that. And there's still a little bit of -- a little lack of clarity about the implications of the entity lists and how quickly applications for licenses will be received and processed. So I think that the real -- we're kind of $900 million better in the quarter. You took the year up for $500 million. We attributed roughly $400 million to pull-ins. As we go into the second half, we're just at the -- there's still a little bit unknown about what -- how this China thing is going to play out. And that's a big important market for us, and that's probably what makes me a little more anxious.

是的。我覺得唯一要補充的是，相對於我們四月的情況，展望下半年，我們仍然面臨中國商品關稅上漲的威脅及其影響。目前對於實體清單的影響以及許可證申請的接收和處理速度，仍然存在一些不清楚的地方。所以我認為實際情況是——我們本季比預期好多了，大約有 9 億美元。你拿了一年的薪水，高達5億美元。我們認為大約 4 億美元來自車輛駛入。進入下半場，我們現在還處於——關於中國局勢將如何發展，仍然存在一些未知數。那對我們來說是一個非常重要的市場，這也可能是讓我有點焦慮的原因。

Our next question comes from the line of Matt Ramsay from Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 公司的 Matt Ramsay。

George and maybe Bob as well, we had heard and continue to hear rumblings of -- and you guys have addressed it at the Analyst Day and in other forums about how you might be price aggressive in certain sectors to try to protect market share. And I wonder if you might comment about how you're thinking about that strategically in your notebook business where you have 10-nanometer product coming online versus in your desktop business where you might be on 14-nanometer for a bit longer.

喬治，或許還有鮑勃，我們之前聽過，現在仍然聽到一些傳言——你們在分析師日和其他論壇上也談到過——你們可能會在某些行業採取激進的價格策略來保護市場份額。我想知道您能否談談您在筆記型電腦業務中是如何從戰略角度考慮這個問題的，因為您的筆記型電腦產品即將採用 10 奈米工藝，而您的桌上型電腦業務可能還會繼續使用 14 奈米工藝一段時間。

First, I'd start with, at the risk of repeating myself, a TAM of $300 billion, the largest TAM in the company's history with a pretty decent wind at our back in terms of this insatiable appetite for data and what it means for the products that we build and design. So we view ourselves as having a relatively low-share position with significant opportunity to grow. But at the same time, we know it's just -- we're not the only ones that have seen a data-centric world and it will be a more intensely competitive environment.

首先，恕我重複，我要說的是，TAM 為 3000 億美元，這是公司歷史上最大的 TAM，而且就我們對數據的無限渴望以及這對我們構建和設計的產品意味著什麼而言，我們正處於一個相當有利的順風階段。因此，我們認為自身市佔率相對較低，但仍有很大的成長空間。但同時，我們也知道，我們並不是唯一看到以數據為中心的世界的人，而且這將是一個競爭更加激烈的環境。

And our expectations over time are to protect our market share position while continuing to invest in new prospects for growth. And that hasn't really changed. When you look at that by segment, we're going to be -- on the PC side, we've been protecting our position for the last couple of years. I'd say the competitive intensity on the PC side started probably in the first part of 2017. And during that time frame, we've tried to protect our position while moving end customers up to higher performance products that generate higher ASPs and with that have the capacity also to fight back and meet comps in targeted areas where we need to.

我們期望在未來能夠維持市場佔有率地位，同時繼續投資於新的成長前景。這一點其實並沒有改變。從細分市場來看，在個人電腦領域，過去幾年我們一直在鞏固自己的地位。我認為PC端的競爭激烈程度大概是從2017年上半年開始的。在此期間，我們努力鞏固自身地位，同時引導終端客戶升級到性能更高的產品，從而獲得更高的平均售價，並有能力在需要的地方反擊並迎頭趕上競爭對手。

So that's -- how we think about it is big opportunity to grow, large market, protect our position while expanding into new vectors. And that transforms all segments, and we're a little more protective about some segments versus others in those cases, particularly when we're in a supply-constrained environment. So not a whole lot has really changed on that other than we know it's going to be more competitive and we try to take that into account as we've thought about not only our second half outlook but our 3-year outlook.

所以，我們認為這是一個巨大的發展機遇，市場廣闊，我們需要在維持現有地位的同時，拓展到新的領域。這會改變所有細分市場，在這種情況下，我們會對某些細分市場比其他細分市場更加謹慎，尤其是在供應受限的環境下。所以，除了我們知道競爭會更加激烈之外，其他方面並沒有太大變化。我們在考慮下半年展望以及未來三年展望時，也努力將這一點考慮在內。

Our final question then comes from the line of David Wong from Instinet.

那麼，我們最後一個問題來自 Instinet 的 David Wong。

Just a clarification of what you had said with regard to restrictions in shipments to various entities in China. Did you say that the net result was actually small in the second quarter? And will there be -- do you expect any meaningful impact on DCG revenues from restrictions and shipments in the third quarter? Or is that going to be small, too?

我只是想澄清一下您之前提到的關於向中國各實體發貨的限制問題。你是說第二季的淨利其實很小嗎？那麼，您預計第三季的限制措施和出貨量會對 DCG 的收入產生任何實質影響嗎？或者說，它也會很小？

Again, so it was small in the second quarter. In fact, it was probably a net positive because of pull-in activities. So if you looked at what we were prohibited from shipping versus what was pulled in on things we're allowed to ship where people were concerned that perhaps restrictions would become greater, that was a net positive in the second quarter. We think that dynamic just remains in play in the second half of the year. How much of the demand concerns were met in the second quarter, we'll have to see how that plays out. But our forecast is based on kind of the current state of activity. And as Bob said, we're -- it doesn't mean that we're not concerned or cautious about what could happen if there's a change in policy between now and the end of the year.

所以第二季規模也很小。事實上，由於各種吸引人的活動，這可能反而帶來了正面的影響。因此，如果你看一下我們被禁止發貨的商品與被扣押的、人們擔心限制可能會加大的、我們可以發貨的商品，那麼第二季度的淨收益是積極的。我們認為這種趨勢在下半年仍將持續。第二季有多少需求擔憂得到了滿足，我們還要看看結果如何。但我們的預測是基於當前的經濟活動狀況。正如鮑勃所說，我們——但這並不意味著我們不擔心或謹慎對待如果從現在到年底政策發生變化可能發生的事情。

Thanks, David. And we'll hand the call back over to Bob to wrap things up.

謝謝你，大衛。然後我們會把電話轉回給鮑勃，讓他來結束談話。

Thanks, Mark. Thanks, everybody, for joining us. I'd just kind of close where I started. We had a -- the quarter played out much stronger than we expected. Revenue better, gross margins better, spending in line, earnings greater. And therefore, from that confidence, we're raising our full year outlook and kind of feel good about our performance 6 months through the year.

謝謝你，馬克。謝謝大家的參與。我基本上就是從我開始的地方結束。本季業績遠超預期。營收提高，毛利率提高，支出控制在合理範圍內，獲利增加。因此，基於這種信心，我們提高了全年預期，並對今年前六個月的業績感到滿意。

Secondly and just more importantly, we continue to really work the supply chain so we're never in a position to constrain our customers' growth. We've made good progress through the first half. But I think more as we go into the second half, we're just in a better position than we've been in a while. We still have work to do. We're still working with our customers, but we feel pretty good on the supply as we enter the second half.

其次，也是更重要的一點，我們持續優化供應鏈，確保我們永遠不會限制客戶的成長。上半程我們取得了不錯的進展。但我認為，隨著賽季進入下半程，我們的處境比以往任何時候都要好。我們還有很多工作要做。我們仍在與客戶合作，但進入下半年，我們對供應情況感覺相當樂觀。

And then third, our progress on both 10-nanometer and our confidence in migrating from 10 to 7 continues to grow based on execution. So we kind of gave you a 3-year outlook. We consider this the second deposit of that 12 deposit 3-year outlook, and I'd say we feel pretty good about where we are. And we look forward to giving you another update 90 days from now about continued progress momentum on our multiyear journey. So thanks for joining us, and we look forward to talking to you again in 90 days.

第三，我們在 10 奈米技術方面的進展以及從 10 奈米過渡到 7 奈米的信心，都隨著執行情況的不斷改善而持續增長。所以我們大致給你展望了未來三年的發展前景。我們認為這是為期三年、共 12 筆存款計劃中的第二筆存款，而且我認為我們對目前的狀況相當滿意。我們期待在90天後向您報告我們多年旅程中持續取得的進展。感謝您的參與，我們期待在90天後再次與您交流。

Thanks, Bob, and thank you all for joining us today. Operator, can you please go ahead and wrap up the call?

謝謝鮑勃，也謝謝各位今天蒞臨現場。接線生，請您結束通話好嗎？

Certainly. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.

當然。感謝各位女士、先生參加今天的會議。節目到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。再會。