英特爾 (INTC) 2018 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Intel Corporation's Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's program is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，大家好，歡迎參加英特爾公司2018年第三季財報電話會議。（操作說明）提醒各位，今天的節目正在錄製中。

And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Mark Henninger, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我謹向大家介紹今天節目的主持人，投資人關係主管馬克‧亨寧格。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. And welcome, everyone, to Intel's Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. By now, you should have received a copy of our earnings release and the CFO earnings presentation that goes along with it. If you've not received both documents, they're available on our investor website, intc.com. The CFO earnings presentation is also available on the webcast window for those joining us online. I'm joined by Bob Swan, our interim CEO and Chief Financial Officer; and Murthy Renduchintala, Group President of the Technology, Systems Architecture & Client Group, and Chief Engineering Officer. Navin Shenoy and his wife are welcoming a new baby, and as a result, he won't be joining us today. In a moment, we'll hear brief remarks from Bob, followed by Q&A.

謝謝接線生。歡迎各位參加英特爾2018年第三季財報電話會議。現在，您應該已經收到我們的獲利報告以及與之配套的財務長獲利簡報。如果您尚未收到這兩份文件，它們可以在我們的投資者網站 intc.com 上找到。在線上觀看直播的觀眾也可以透過網路直播視窗觀看財務長的業績報告。與我一同出席的還有我們的臨時執行長兼財務長鮑勃·斯旺；以及技術、系統架構和客戶集團總裁兼首席工程官穆爾蒂·倫杜欽塔拉。納文·舍諾伊和他的妻子即將迎來他們的新生兒，因此他今天不能和我們一起參加節目了。稍後我們將聽到鮑勃的簡短講話，然後是問答環節。

Before we begin, let me remind everyone that today's discussion contains forward-looking statements based on the environment as we currently see it, and as such, does include risks and uncertainties. Please refer to our press release for more information on the specific risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially. A brief reminder that this quarter, we have provided both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. Today, we will be speaking to the non-GAAP financial measures when describing our consolidated results. The CFO commentary and earnings release available on intc.com include the full GAAP and non-GAAP reconciliations.

在開始之前，我想提醒大家，今天的討論包含基於我們目前所見環境的前瞻性陳述，因此確實存在風險和不確定性。有關可能導致實際結果與預期結果存在重大差異的具體風險因素的更多信息，請參閱我們的新聞稿。簡單提醒一下，本季我們同時提供了GAAP和非GAAP財務指標。今天，我們將結合非GAAP財務指標來介紹我們的合併績效。tc.com 上提供的財務長評論和收益報告包括完整的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 調節表。

With that, let me hand it over to Bob.

那麼，就讓我把麥克風交給鮑伯吧。

Thanks, Mark. This summer, we celebrated our 50th anniversary, and this quarter was the best quarter in our 50-year history. Record quarterly revenue of $19.2 billion was up 19%. Our operating margins expanded 5 points, and earnings per share of $1.40 was up 39%. Our results were driven by incredibly strong demand and customer preference for the performance of our leadership products across the business. Our data center, client computing, Internet of Things, memory and Mobileye businesses all achieved record revenue. We expect 2018 to be the best year ever and our third record year in a row.

謝謝你，馬克。今年夏天，我們慶祝了公司成立 50 週年，而本季也是我們 50 年歷史上業績最好的一個季度。季度營收創歷史新高，達到 192 億美元，年增 19%。我們的營業利潤率提高了 5 個百分點，每股收益為 1.40 美元，成長了 39%。我們的業績得益於市場對我們領導產品在整個業務中的卓越性能的強勁需求和客戶偏好。我們的資料中心、客戶端運算、物聯網、記憶體和 Mobileye 業務均實現了創紀錄的收入。我們預計2018年將是有史以來最好的一年，也是我們連續第三年創下紀錄。

Before we get deeper into the financials, I'll take a few minutes to talk about our strategy, our products and our people. First, our strategy. We are growing share in a larger TAM, driving operating leverage while increasing our R&D investments and delivering attractive capital returns. Our thesis is that the massive growth of data worldwide will increase demand for the analysis, storage and sharing of data. We are one of the few companies that touches every part of the data revolution. And we've invested both organically and acquisitively to capitalize on these trends to accelerate the growth of the company while at the same time, delivering significant operating leverage and exiting noncore businesses. Our disciplined focus is delivering outstanding results. Demand in growth this year continue to exceed our expectations. Collectively, our data-centric businesses are up 22% year-to-date, led by growth in the cloud and communication service provider segments.

在深入探討財務狀況之前，我將花幾分鐘時間談談我們的策略、產品和人員。首先，我們的策略。我們在更大的市場中不斷擴大市場份額，提高營運槓桿，同時增加研發投入，並帶來可觀的資本回報。我們的論點是，全球數據的爆炸性增長將增加對數據分析、儲存和共享的需求。我們是少數幾家能夠涉足數據革命各個環節的公司之一。我們透過有機成長和收購兩種方式進行投資，以利用這些趨勢加速公司發展，同時實現顯著的營運槓桿效應並退出非核心業務。我們嚴謹專注的態度帶來了卓越的成果。今年的成長需求持續超出我們的預期。今年迄今為止，我們以數據為中心的業務整體成長了 22%，其中雲端運算和通訊服務供應商領域的成長最為顯著。

In both our data centric and PC businesses, our CPU leadership puts us in a great position to capitalize on this massive data opportunity by delivering more value to a broader set of customers. We've expanded beyond CPUs with memory, modems, FPGAs and silicon for emerging high-growth workloads like ADAS, artificial intelligence and 5G communications. We acquired Mobileye, which has integrated Intel Architecture to produce the industry's leading ADAS and autonomous driving platforms. Mobileye also just announced the ability to fully retrofit existing vehicles to deliver full autonomy, moving Mobileye further up the value chain. The acquisitions of Altera and Movidius are enabling us to partner with customers to expand the markets that they serve. They're developing new AI capabilities by combining our Core products with our FPGAs and VPUs. This is most evident in computer vision applications, which cut across all of our IoT verticals.

無論是在資料中心業務還是個人電腦業務方面，我們在 CPU 領域的領先地位使我們能夠更好地掌握這一巨大的資料機遇，為更廣泛的客戶群創造更多價值。我們已將業務拓展到 CPU 以外的領域，包括記憶體、數據機、FPGA 和矽晶片，以滿足 ADAS、人工智慧和 5G 通訊等新興高成長工作負載的需求。我們收購了 Mobileye，該公司整合了英特爾架構，生產出業界領先的 ADAS 和自動駕駛平台。Mobileye 還宣布能夠對現有車輛進行全面改裝，以實現完全自動駕駛，這使得 Mobileye 在價值鏈上更進一步。收購 Altera 和 Movidius 讓我們能夠與客戶合作，拓展他們所服務的市場。他們正在將我們的核心產品與我們的FPGA和VPU結合，開發新的AI功能。這一點在電腦視覺應用中最為明顯，而電腦視覺應用貫穿我們所有的物聯網垂直領域。

As a result, our opportunity has never been bigger. We are competing and winning share in a $300 billion TAM, transforming from a PC-centric company to a data-centric company in the process. We now expect full year revenue to grow more than $8.4 billion over 2017. And in the first 9 months of the year, we have returned $12.6 billion to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends or 112% of free cash flow.

因此，我們的機會從未如此之大。我們正在3000億美元的潛在市場中競爭並贏得份額，在此過程中，我們正在從以個人電腦為中心的公司轉型為以數據為中心的公司。我們現在預計全年營收將比 2017 年成長超過 84 億美元。今年前 9 個月，我們以股票回購和分紅的形式向股東返還了 126 億美元，相當於自由現金流的 112%。

We've also achieved outstanding growth in our PC-centric business. After 7 years of decline, we expect modest growth in the PC TAM this year, and we continue to gain share in modems. We've focused our investments in the PC sector and the areas where we see growth and where our performance leadership and differentiation matters most, the commercial, gaming and 2-in-1 segments.

我們在以個人電腦為中心的業務領域也取得了顯著成長。經過 7 年的下滑，我們預計今年 PC TAM 將出現小幅成長，並且我們在數據機領域的市場份額將繼續擴大。我們已將投資重點放在個人電腦領域，以及我們認為能夠實現成長、並且我們的效能領先優勢和差異化優勢最為重要的領域，即商用、遊戲和二合一領域。

Second, our products. Our strategy is delivering results because we have products that are solving our customers' problems. We're making the products we have even better and expanding our portfolio to deliver more value to customers. One of the most important things we do is collaborate with our customers and ecosystem partners to deliver exciting new computing experiences. We do that broadly with our OEMs. An example in our PC business was the launch of the stunning, new HP Spectre Folio, a 2-in-1 we worked closely with HP to develop. We leveraged our expertise in thermal tuning and motherboard miniaturization while achieving up to 19 hours battery life through power tuning and the use of Intel's low-power display technology. This sort of innovation is impossible without Intel's exceptionally broad range of IP and the scale and expertise to partner deeply with our customers on design. We also launched the new 9th Gen Intel Core desktop processors, including the world's best gaming processor.

其次，我們的產品。我們的策略之所以能夠達到成效，是因為我們擁有能夠解決客戶問題的產品。我們正在不斷改進現有產品，並擴大產品組合，以為客戶帶來更多價值。我們最重要的工作之一就是與客戶和生態系統合作夥伴合作，提供令人興奮的全新運算體驗。我們與原始設備製造商 (OEM) 普遍採用這種方式。我們的 PC 業務的一個例子是推出了令人驚豔的全新 HP Spectre Folio，這是一款我們與 HP 密切合作開發的二合一筆記型電腦。我們利用自身在散熱調校和主機板小型化方面的專業知識，並透過電源調校和使用英特爾低功耗顯示技術，實現了長達 19 小時的電池續航時間。如果沒有英特爾極其廣泛的智慧財產權，以及與客戶在設計方面進行深入合作的規模和專業知識，這種創新是不可能的。我們也推出了全新的第九代英特爾酷睿桌上型處理器，其中包括全球最好的遊戲處理器。

In our data-centric businesses, we announced 95 new performance world records for Xeon Scalable and continue to see strong adoption while we work with customers to get ready for the transition to Cascade Lake. Cascade Lake introduces hardware-based side channel mitigation, Intel DL Boost with 11x inference speed-up and a revolutionary new technology, Optane DC persistent memory. And we're deepening our engagement with customers on custom SKUs. In fact, we'll have 60% more custom SKUs in the Cascade Lake family than the prior generation.

在我們以數據為中心的業務中，我們宣布了 Xeon Scalable 的 95 項新的性能世界紀錄，並且在與客戶合作準備過渡到 Cascade Lake 的同時，我們繼續看到強勁的採用率。Cascade Lake 引進了基於硬體的側通道緩解技術、Intel DL Boost 技術（推理速度提升 11 倍）以及革命性的新技術 Optane DC 持久記憶體。我們正在加深與客戶在客製化 SKU 方面的合作。事實上，Cascade Lake 系列的客製化 SKU 將比上一代產品增加 60%。

We shipped our first revenue units of Optane DC persistent memory to Google, Microsoft and Alibaba, and we're already receiving great feedback. Microsoft reported a new performance record of 13.7 million IOPs using Xeon Scalable and Optane, a level they said they've never seen with any other platform approach. Customers also continue to choose Intel as a partner as they use artificial intelligence to transform their businesses. Taboola chose Intel Xeon over GPUs for a massive inference speed-up and scale out across 7 data centers, delivering 360 billion content recommendations monthly. Rolls-Royce will design autonomous ships running inference on Xeon and are evaluating more of our portfolio in a multiyear engagement.

我們已向Google、微軟和阿里巴巴交付了首批Optane DC持久記憶體產品，並已收到很好的回饋。微軟報告稱，使用 Xeon Scalable 和 Optane 實現了 1,370 萬個 IOPS 的新效能記錄，他們表示，這是他們使用任何其他平台方法都從未達到的水平。客戶在利用人工智慧改造業務的過程中，也持續選擇英特爾作為合作夥伴。Taboola 選擇使用 Intel Xeon 處理器而不是 GPU，以實現推理速度的大幅提升，並擴展到 7 個資料中心，每月提供 3,600 億個內容推薦。勞斯萊斯將設計基於至強處理器的自主船舶，並正在評估我們產品組合中的更多產品，這是多年合作計劃的一部分。

Mobileye customer momentum continued with 8 new design wins at major U.S. and global automakers, bringing our 2018 design win total to 20. Mobileye also shipped 3.3 million EyeQ SoCs in the third quarter, bringing lifetime total to more than 33 million units.

Mobileye 的客戶動能持續強勁，在美國和全球主要汽車製造商中贏得了 8 個新的設計項目，使我們 2018 年的設計項目總數達到 20 個。Mobileye 第三季也出貨了 330 萬顆 EyeQ SoC，使其累計出貨量超過 3,300 萬顆。

While our current product lineup is compelling, our road map is even more exciting. We continue to make good progress on 10-nanometer. Yields are improving, and we're on track for 10-nanometer-based systems on shelves during the holiday 2019 selling season. The breadth of IP we've assembled, combined with Intel's design, software, packaging and manufacturing capability, gives us an unmatched ability to invent the industry's future.

雖然我們目前的產品陣容已經很有吸引力，但我們的發展路線圖更加令人興奮。我們在 10 奈米技術方面持續取得良好進展。良率正在提高，我們預計在 2019 年假期銷售季期間將基於 10 奈米技術的系統推向市場。我們累積的廣泛智慧財產權，加上英特爾的設計、軟體、封裝和製造能力，使我們擁有無與倫比的能力來創造產業的未來。

Third, and most importantly, our people. Intel has amazing talent, including world-class scientists and engineers, and we are making excellent progress toward our commitment to a fully representative workforce. Intel employees are at their best when they're working together to address challenges. And faced with explosive and unexpected demand this year, they've exhibited incredible problem-solving skills to deliver this quarter's results. The PC TAM has returned to growth, and our data center business is growing at more than twice the rate we expected in January. Our full year revenue outlook is now more than $6 billion higher than our January forecast. And we have supply to support this revised guidance, thanks to outstanding responsiveness from our factory teams.

第三，也是最重要的一點，就是我們的人民。英特爾擁有傑出的人才，包括世界一流的科學家和工程師，我們在實現員工隊伍多元化方面取得了顯著進展。英特爾員工在齊心協力應對挑戰時，才能發揮最佳水準。面對今年爆發且出乎意料的需求，他們展現了驚人的問題解決能力，最終取得了本季的業績。PC TAM 已恢復成長，我們的資料中心業務成長速度是 1 月預期速度的兩倍多。我們目前的全年營收預期將比1月的預測高出60多億美元。由於工廠團隊的出色回應能力，我們有足夠的供應來支援這項修訂後的指導方針。

We are focused on doing everything possible not to constrain our customers' growth. We've increased our CapEx by $1.5 billion since January to a record $15.5 billion. We've repositioned some 10-nanometer capacity to 14-nanometer, and we're making progress with our 10-nanometer process technology.

我們致力於盡一切可能不限制客戶的發展。自1月以來，我們的資本支出增加了15億美元，達到創紀錄的155億美元。我們已將部分 10 奈米產能轉移到 14 奈米，我們在 10 奈米製程技術方面也取得了進展。

Supply is tightest at the entry-level of the PC market and in our IoTG business. Within our CPU product lines, we're prioritizing the production of our Xeon and Core processors so that we and our customers can serve the high performance segments in the market. Our biggest challenge in Q4 will be meeting any additional PC and IoTG demand beyond our guidance, and we do expect fourth quarter upside from here will be limited.

PC 市場入門級產品和我們的物聯網業務供應最為緊張。在我們的 CPU 產品線中，我們優先生產 Xeon 和 Core 處理器，以便我們和我們的客戶能夠服務市場上的高效能領域。第四季我們面臨的最大挑戰將是滿足超出我們預期範圍的任何額外的 PC 和 IoTG 需求，我們預計第四季度的成長空間將有限。

Summing it up, our strategy, leadership products and amazing people combined to produce the best quarter in the company's history. We're well on track to another record year.

總而言之，我們的策略、領導力、產品和優秀的人才共同造就了公司歷史上最好的一個季度。我們很有希望再創佳績。

With that, let's turn to the details. Third quarter revenue of $19.2 billion was up 19% year-over-year. Our data-centric businesses were collectively up 22%, and our PC-centric business was up 16%. Outstanding business performance, continued operating leverage and a lower tax rate resulted in non-GAAP net income of $6.5 billion, up 34% year-over-year. EPS of $1.40 was up 39% year-over-year.

接下來，讓我們來看看細節。第三季營收為192億美元，年增19%。我們的資料中心業務整體成長了 22%，PC 業務成長了 16%。優秀的業務表現、持續的經營槓桿作用和較低的稅率使得非GAAP淨收入達到65億美元，年增34%。每股收益為 1.40 美元，年增 39%。

Year-to-date, we have generated $11.2 billion of free cash flow and returned $12.6 billion to shareholders, including $4.2 billion in dividends and $8.5 billion in buybacks, repurchasing 167 million shares. We continue to see strong momentum in our business and are raising our full year revenue guide by $1.7 billion to $71.2 billion. We are also raising our EPS guide by $0.38 versus July to $4.53 and our free cash flow guide by $500 million to $15.5 billion. Our revenue guidance for 2018 is up greater than $6 billion versus our January expectations as we focus on a strong finish to a record year.

今年迄今為止，我們已產生 112 億美元的自由現金流，並向股東返還了 126 億美元，其中包括 42 億美元的股息和 85 億美元的股票回購，回購了 1.67 億股股票。我們的業務持續保持強勁成長勢頭，因此我們將全年營收預期上調 17 億美元至 712 億美元。我們同時將每股收益預期較 7 月上調 0.38 美元至 4.53 美元，並將自由現金流預期上調 5 億至 155 億美元。由於我們專注於為創紀錄的一年畫上一個圓滿的句號，我們對 2018 年的收入預期比 1 月份的預期高出 60 億美元以上。

Our leadership products continue to win share in our expanded TAM as both our data-centric and PC-centric businesses grew at double-digit rates this quarter. Our data-centric businesses were up 22% as customers choose our performance products to move, store and process more data faster from the cloud to the edge. And our PC-centric business was up 16% as we saw continued strength in the commercial and gaming PC segments and grew modem share.

我們的領導產品在擴大的TAM市場中繼續贏得份額，本季我們的資料中心業務和PC業務均實現了兩位數的成長。由於客戶選擇我們的高效能產品來更快地將更多數據從雲端移動到邊緣，儲存和處理更多數據，我們的數據中心業務成長了 22%。我們以 PC 為中心的業務成長了 16%，這得益於商用和遊戲 PC 市場的持續強勁成長以及調變解調器市場份額的擴大。

Operating income increased by more than $2 billion with margin up 5.1 points year-over-year in the third quarter, marking our highest operating margin percentage since 2011. EPS climbed to $1.40, up 39% year-on-year. Our EPS improvement was driven by growing demand for high-performance products in the data center and client businesses leading to higher volumes and ASPs, continued growth in our adjacent businesses, a lower tax rate and lower share count as a result of buybacks.

第三季營業收入成長超過 20 億美元，利潤率年增 5.1 個百分點，創下自 2011 年以來的最高營業利潤率。每股收益攀升至 1.40 美元，年增 39%。我們的每股盈餘改善得益於資料中心和客戶端業務對高性能產品的需求不斷增長，從而帶動了銷量和平均售價的提高；此外，我們相關業務的持續增長、較低的稅率以及股票回購帶來的股份數量減少。

Our focus on operational efficiency continues to produce strong results. We now expect full year spending as a percentage of revenue to be approximately 29%, down about 7 points since 2015 while R&D is up $1.4 billion over the same period. We continue to improve our leverage while increasing investment in our key priorities such as product leadership, artificial intelligence and autonomous driving. Disciplined spending with a focus on prioritizing the most important investment opportunities is a key lever in magnifying our revenue opportunities and it's apparent in our results. Over the last 3 years, we've grown annual revenue by nearly $16 billion while adding less than $600 million in spending, resulting in a more than 25% increase in revenue per employee.

我們對營運效率的持續關注取得了顯著成效。我們現在預計全年支出佔收入的比例約為 29%，比 2015 年下降了約 7 個百分點，而同期研發支出增加了 14 億美元。我們不斷提高槓桿作用，同時增加對產品領先地位、人工智慧和自動駕駛等重點領域的投資。有紀律地支出，並專注於最重要的投資機會，是擴大我們收入機會的關鍵槓桿，這一點在我們的業績中顯而易見。過去 3 年，我們的年收入成長了近 160 億美元，而支出增加不到 6 億美元，使每位員工的收入成長了 25% 以上。

Now some Q3 performance highlights by segment. The Data Center Group delivered its first $6 billion revenue quarter as it shipped more than 8 million CPUs into an annual server, storage, network and CPU TAM that is greater than 30 million units. Revenue of $6.1 billion was up 26% year-over-year, and operating income of $3.1 billion was up 37% year-over-year. Q3 operating margin was 50%. And we continue to see strong acceleration in both the cloud and comms service providers segments, which make up more than 2/3 of DCG revenue. Platform unit volume was up 15%, and ASPs were up 10%. Non-CPU adjacencies grew 14% over last year. The cloud business grew 50% year-over-year with strong growth trends across our diversified customer base. Our comms service providers segment grew 30% year-over-year as customers continue to transform their networks with Intel Architecture as they prepare for 5G. And our enterprise segment was up 1% year-over-year as a strong IT spending environment continued with CIOs prioritizing investment in private and hybrid cloud implementations.

以下是各業務板塊第三季業績亮點。資料中心集團實現了首個 60 億美元的季度營收，CPU 出貨量超過 800 萬台，而其伺服器、儲存、網路和 CPU 的年度總市場規模超過 3,000 萬台。營收達 61 億美元，年增 26%；營業收入達 31 億美元，年增 37%。第三季營業利益率為50%。我們繼續看到雲端運算和通訊服務供應商領域強勁的成長勢頭，這兩個領域佔 DCG 收入的 2/3 以上。平台單元銷量成長 15%，平均售價成長 10%。非 CPU 鄰接關係比去年增長了 14%。雲端業務年增 50%，多元化的客戶群均呈現強勁的成長趨勢。隨著客戶不斷利用英特爾架構改造其網絡，為迎接 5G 做好準備，我們的通訊服務供應商業務年增了 30%。由於資訊長們持續優先投資私有雲和混合雲部署，IT 支出環境保持強勁，我們的企業業務較去年同期成長 1%。

Our other data-centric businesses, IoTG, NSG and PSG, achieved solid growth in the third quarter and together were up 13% year-over-year or 17%, excluding Wind River. Our Internet of Things business achieved record revenue of $919 million on broad business strength, up 8% or 19% excluding Wind River. Operating profit was $321 million, up 120% year-over-year on growing demand and revenue scale. Mobileye had record revenue of $191 million, up approximately 50% over last year as ADAS adoption continues to accelerate.

我們其他以數據為中心的業務，IoTG、NSG 和 PSG，在第三季度實現了穩健增長，合計同比增長 13%，如果不包括 Wind River，則同比增長 17%。在整體業務強勁成長的推動下，我們的物聯網業務實現了創紀錄的 9.19 億美元收入，年增 8%，若不計入 Wind River 的業績，則成長 19%。營業利潤為 3.21 億美元，年增 120%，這主要得益於需求成長和收入規模擴大。隨著ADAS（高級駕駛輔助系統）的普及，Mobileye的營收創下1.91億美元的紀錄，比去年成長了約50%。

Our memory business delivered record revenue of $1.1 billion, up 21% year-over-year as we continue to redefine the storage paradigm with industry-leading, low-cost, high-density NAND SSDs and the revolutionary performance of Optane drives. We have now reached the crossover point with 50% of our data center and client SSDs shifted to cost-effective, 64-layer 3D NAND, leading to rapidly improving cost per gigabyte. At the same time, as a result of pursuing 3D XPoint development independently and a tougher NAND pricing environment, we now expect NSG to be approximately breakeven for the full year.

我們的記憶體業務實現了創紀錄的 11 億美元收入，年成長 21%，我們繼續以業界領先的低成本、高密度 NAND SSD 和具有革命性性能的 Optane 驅動器重新定義儲存範式。現在，我們已達到轉折點，50% 的資料中心和客戶端 SSD 已轉向經濟高效的 64 層 3D NAND，從而迅速降低了每 GB 的成本。同時，由於獨立推進 3D XPoint 開發以及 NAND 定價環境更加嚴峻，我們現在預計 NSG 將全年大致實現損益平衡。

Micron recently announced their intent to call the IMFT factory. Our agreements with Micron ensure a reliable and cost-effective supply of 3D XPoint through at least 2020. And we have developed internal manufacturing options, which can be executed well within that time frame. PSG's revenue came in at $496 million, up 6% on strength in data center and comms segments. PSG's data center segment was up 45% over last year.

美光科技最近宣布了他們打算將IMFT工廠命名為「工廠」。我們與美光科技的協議確保至少在 2020 年之前都能可靠且經濟高效地供應 3D XPoint。我們已經開發出內部生產方案，可以在該時間範圍內很好地完成。PSG 的營收為 4.96 億美元，成長 6%，這主要得益於資料中心和通訊領域的強勁表現。PSG的資料中心業務較去年成長了45%。

In the advanced products category our 28-, 20- and 14-nanometer solutions grew 55%. Operating profit was $106 million, down 6% year-over-year.

在先進產品類別中，我們的 28 奈米、20 奈米和 14 奈米解決方案成長了 55%。營業利潤為1.06億美元，年減6%。

Finally, the Client Computing Group delivered exceptional results with its first $10 billion quarter, up 16% year-over-year. Commercial and gaming demand continued to be very strong. The notebook segment grew 13% year-over-year. The desktop segment grew 9% year-over-year. And client adjacencies grew 66% year-over-year, led by the 131% growth in our modem business.

最後，客戶端運算集團取得了卓越的業績，其首季營收達到 100 億美元，年成長 16%。商業和遊戲需求依然非常強勁。筆記型電腦市場較去年同期成長13%。桌上型電腦市場較去年同期成長 9%。客戶相關業務年增 66%，其中調變解調器業務成長 131%，帶動了這一成長。

Operating profit grew $932 million year-over-year, while operating margin up 3.7 points. Leadership product performance and segmentation contribute to strong mix and higher ASPs.

營業利潤年增 9.32 億美元，營業利潤率提高 3.7 個百分點。領先的產品表現和細分市場有助於實現強大的產品組合和更高的平均售價。

The investments we have made in the business organically and through acquisition are delivering excellent cash flow generation. Year-to-date, we have generated $22.5 billion in cash from operations. We have invested $11.3 billion in capital expenditures and delivered $11.2 billion in free cash flow, up 57% over the first 3 quarters of last year. During this period, we returned 112% of our free cash flow to our shareholders. Buybacks totaled $8.5 billion, and dividends totaled $4.2 billion. In addition, settlements of our convertible debt reduced fully diluted shares by $22 million.

我們透過自身發展和收購對業務的投資，帶來了優異的現金流。今年迄今為止，我們已從經營活動中產生 225 億美元的現金。我們在資本支出方面投入了 113 億美元，並實現了 112 億美元的自由現金流，比去年同期成長了 57%。在此期間，我們將自由現金流的 112% 回饋給了股東。股票回購總額為 85 億美元，股利總額為 42 億美元。此外，我們可轉換債務的結算使完全稀釋後的股份減少了 2,200 萬美元。

Now turning to our full year outlook. We started the year in January expecting to generate $65 billion in revenue, 30% operating margin and $3.55 in EPS. 9 months later, the growth that we and the industry has seen has been remarkable. We couldn't be more pleased that in an increasingly competitive market, our customers are choosing Intel. Our leadership products are winning across our data-centric businesses, and we're seeing strong demand upside in the client business that not long ago many thought was in perpetual decline.

現在來展望一下全年情況。今年一月，我們預計營收將達到 650 億美元，營業利潤率為 30%，每股收益為 3.55 美元。9 個月後，我們和整個產業都取得了顯著的成長。在競爭日益激烈的市場中，我們的客戶選擇英特爾，我們對此感到無比欣慰。我們的領導力產品在以數據為中心的業務中取得了成功，我們看到客戶業務的需求強勁增長，而不久前許多人還認為客戶業務一直在持續衰退。

We are now forecasting revenue of approximately $71.2 billion, up $1.7 billion versus our expectations in July. This represents a $6.2 billion increase versus the expectations we set just 9 months ago. We now expect data-centric growth to be approximately 20% year-over-year and PC-centric growth to be around 9% year-over-year. Our outlook for operating margin is approximately 34.5%, up 2.5 points from July as we now expect to deliver 29% spending to revenue, not only hitting our original goal 2 years early, but beating it. We expect the full year tax rate of around 12%, down slightly from our prior estimate.

我們現在預測營收約為 712 億美元，比 7 月的預期高出 17 億美元。這比我們9個月前設定的預期增加了62億美元。我們現在預計，以數據為中心的業務成長將年增約 20%，以個人電腦為中心的業務成長將年增約 9%。我們對營業利潤率的預期約為 34.5%，比 7 月提高了 2.5 個百分點，因為我們現在預計支出佔收入的比例將達到 29%，不僅提前 2 年實現了我們最初的目標，而且還超額完成了目標。我們預計全年稅率約為 12%，略低於我們先前的估計。

Overall, we expect strong top line growth and improving operating leverage will drive EPS to $4.53, up $0.38 from our estimate in July. As a result of increased demand, we are raising our forecast for gross CapEx to $15.5 billion or approximately $14 billion net of memory prepayments. We are now expecting free cash flow of $15.5 billion, up $500 million from July.

總體而言，我們預計強勁的營收成長和不斷改善的營運槓桿將推動每股收益達到 4.53 美元，比我們 7 月的預測高出 0.38 美元。由於需求增加，我們將總資本支出預測上調至 155 億美元，扣除記憶體預付款後約為 140 億美元。我們現在預計自由現金流為 155 億美元，比 7 月增加 5 億美元。

For Q4, we are forecasting revenue of approximately $19 billion, up 11% year-over-year. We expect operating margins of approximately 34.5% and gross margin of approximately 62%. We also expect EPS at $1.22, up 38% excluding equity adjustments from business growth, spending leverage and a lower tax rate. We expect DCG to set another revenue record of approximately $6.3 billion in the fourth quarter. Due to supply constraints, we anticipate IoTG revenue will be down approximately 15% sequentially.

我們預計第四季營收約 190 億美元，年增 11%。我們預計營業利潤率約為 34.5%，毛利率約為 62%。我們也預期每股收益為 1.22 美元，成長 38%，不包括業務成長、支出槓桿和較低稅率帶來的股權調整。我們預計DCG第四季營收將再創新高，約63億美元。由於供應受限，我們預計 IoTG 的營收將環比下降約 15%。

As we look forward to 2019, we expect to deliver another record year for the company. We'll have more to say about 2019 in January, but we're expecting that our operating margin percentage will be approximately flat next year. We expect gross margins to remain in the upper half of our historical 55% to 65% range. And while we expect 2019 gross margin percentage to be down slightly from Q4 '18 levels as we continue to gain share in our adjacent businesses and we ramp our 10-nanometer process, that will be offset by increasing OpEx leverage as we continue to make thoughtful trade-offs and invest in R&D that will accelerate our growth and profitability. And we expect the full year tax rate to be up a couple points following several beneficial discrete events in 2018.

展望2019年，我們期待公司能再創佳績。關於 2019 年的情況，我們將在 1 月發表更多評論，但我們預計明年的營業利潤率將大致持平。我們預計毛利率將保持在歷史平均 55% 至 65% 的上半部。雖然我們預計 2019 年毛利率將略低於 2018 年第四季度的水平，因為我們將繼續在相關業務中擴大市場份額，並加快 10 奈米製程的實施，但隨著我們繼續進行深思熟慮的權衡，並投資於研發以加速我們的成長和盈利能力，營運支出槓桿的提高將抵消這一影響。我們預計，由於 2018 年發生的幾起有利的個別事件，全年稅率將上升幾個百分點。

Five years ago, we set out to transform Intel from a PC-centric company to a data-centric company. Today, our strategy, our products and our people are delivering on that ambition with strong growth, record results and the largest TAM opportunity in the company's history. And we're just getting started.

五年前，我們著手將英特爾從以個人電腦為中心的公司轉型為以數據為中心的公司。今天，我們的策略、產品和員工正在實現這一目標，實現了強勁成長、創紀錄的業績，並獲得了公司歷史上最大的市場規模機會。我們才剛起步。

With that, let me turn it back over to Mark and we'll get to your questions. Thank you.

那麼，現在我把麥克風交還給馬克，我們來回答你的問題。謝謝。

All right. Thank you, Bob. Moving on now to the Q&A. (Operator Instructions) Operator, please go ahead and introduce our first questioner.

好的。謝謝你，鮑伯。接下來進入問答環節。（操作員指示）操作員，請介紹我們的第一位提問者。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Harlan Sur from JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的哈蘭·蘇爾。

On the competitive front, with your nearest competitor rolling out a second generation, 7-nanometer server product next year, I guess first question is, is the Intel team still on track to roll out its second-generation Xeon family, the Cascade Lake at the end of this year? And if you could just help us understand, what are some of the performance and portfolio differentiators that are going to help the team maintain relatively strong share in the server segment, 2019 and beyond?

在競爭方面，鑑於你最直接的競爭對手明年將推出第二代 7 奈米伺服器產品，我想第一個問題是，英特爾團隊是否仍按計劃在今年年底推出第二代至強系列 Cascade Lake？如果您能幫助我們了解一下，有哪些業績和產品組合方面的差異化因素將有助於團隊在 2019 年及以後在伺服器領域保持相對強勁的市場份額？

Yes. Harlan, this is Murthy. Let me take that one. Yes, you're correct. We still intend to be making first shipments of Cascade Lake by Q4. And we're really excited with the stockpile of new features we have lined up for that platform, primarily the support of our Optane persistent memory that we'll launch in conjunction with Cascade Lake as we enter early 2019, we believe that will be a significant uplift in performance. We will also have a dedicated instruction set extensions to support artificial intelligence workloads. And we'll have continued generation over generation CPU improvements. So all in all, we think that Cascade Lake represents a power-packed addition to the data center road map. And of course, we have further excitement towards the end of next year as we launch our Cooper Lake platform as well. So we're really excited about the lineup we have in our DCG road map for next year and indeed, as you said, for the end of this quarter.

是的。哈蘭，我是默西。讓我來做吧。是的，你說得對。我們仍然計劃在第四季度開始交付第一批 Cascade Lake 產品。我們對為該平台準備的大量新功能感到非常興奮，主要是對 Optane 持久內存的支持，我們將在 2019 年初與 Cascade Lake 一起推出，我們相信這將顯著提升性能。我們還將提供專門的指令集擴展，以支援人工智慧工作負載。我們將持續獲得代代相傳的CPU效能提升。總而言之，我們認為 Cascade Lake 代表著資料中心發展路線圖上一個強大的補充。當然，明年年底我們也將推出庫柏湖平台，屆時大家一定會更加興奮。因此，我們對明年以及正如您所說，本季末的 DCG 路線圖陣容感到非常興奮。

Our next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Bob, you've done a great job in managing OpEx since coming on board. You talked about further leverage into 2019. Can you remind us which areas of the business you're deemphasizing from a spending perspective? And how should we think about the balance between R&D and SG&A in 2019 and beyond?

鮑勃，自從你加入公司以來，你在營運支出管理方面做得非常出色。您談到了在 2019 年進一步擴大槓桿作用。能否提醒我們一下，從支出角度來看，您正在減少哪些業務領域的投資？那麼，我們該如何看待2019年及以後研發支出與銷售、管理及行政費用之間的平衡呢？

Yes. First, I think the progress we made has been a team sport. And as I indicated in the prepared remarks, we're down 700 basis points from 2015. And during that time frame, it's not been at the expense of R&D, it's -- on the contrary, R&D has been -- has grown $1.4 billion during that time frame. So really, the underlying dynamics is we've made trade-offs to invest in higher growth segments of the business. That growth is, in fact, accelerating. And from that accelerating growth, we've been extremely disciplined on getting leverage on our SG&A, and we've exited some, what I'd characterize, noncore businesses. During the course of this year, we exited Wind River. We reduced our investments in wearables, products. And we exited these Saffron business as well. So as we go forward, we're going to continue to increase R&D. But -- and we're going to increase it in the areas that we think can generate differentiated growth for us. And from that growth, we expect to continue to get leverage as we go into -- as we enter 2019.

是的。首先，我認為我們所取得的進步是團隊合作的成果。正如我在準備好的演講稿中指出的那樣，我們比 2015 年下降了 700 個基點。而且在此期間，研發投入並沒有減少，恰恰相反，研發投入在此期間增加了 14 億美元。所以，其根本原因在於，我們做出了一些權衡，以便投資在業務中成長更快的領域。事實上，這種成長正在加速。隨著業務的加速成長，我們一直非常自律地控制銷售、一般及行政費用，並剝離了一些我認為是非核心業務的業務。今年，我們退出了溫德河公司。我們減少了對穿戴式裝置及相關產品的投資。我們也退出了藏紅花業務。因此，展望未來，我們將持續加大研發投入。但是——我們將在我們認為能夠為我們帶來差異化成長的領域增加投入。我們希望憑藉這種成長勢頭，在進入 2019 年之際繼續獲得優勢。

Our next question comes from the line of John Pitzer from Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰‧皮策。

Well, I wonder if you can just comment a little bit on when do you think the supply constraints will be over relative to your sort of capacity addition plans. And if I caught it right, it sounds like in the calendar fourth quarter, you're choosing to kind of shortchange the IoT Group. Does that mean that you're already kind of caught up in the PC market? Or how should we be thinking about that dynamic?

我想請您談談，相對於您的產能擴張計劃，您認為供應限制何時才能結束？如果我理解沒錯，聽起來你們似乎打算在第四季削減物聯網集團的預算。那是不是代表你已經涉足PC市場了？或者我們應該如何看待這種動態關係？

First, John, as we mentioned earlier, the -- we were caught off guard a little bit this year by explosive growth well ahead of what our expectations were back in the beginning of the year. And that growth came from all different segments in the business. It put us in the unfortunate situation of constraining some of the demand signals that we were seeing from the market and our customer base. Our teams have done -- in conjunction with our customers, our teams have done an outstanding job in the third quarter and we project into the fourth quarter. And that has enabled us to increase our revenue outlook for the year by $1.7 billion. But I think as we go into the fourth quarter, given the demand signals we continue to see across the business, we, in fact, will be constraining growth. Our focus has been prioritizing in conjunction with our customers, Xeon and Core processors. And therefore, by definition, the lower end of PC and the IoT business is being constrained. So we are in a constrained scenario into the fourth quarter, both at low end PC and in IoT. As we go into next year and kind of the timing, we've put a lot of capital to work this year. It's a record year for CapEx for us at $15.5 billion. It's a $1.5 billion higher than what we expected entering the year. And we have kind of taken some of our 10-nanometer equipment tools and began to blow that back to meet the increased demand for 14. So we're working extremely hard to get back on track in 2019. But at this stage of the game, given the demand signals we've seen in the fourth quarter, we're going to be constrained a little bit. And we're trying to prioritize as best as we can with our customers.

首先，約翰，正如我們之前提到的，今年的爆炸性增長遠遠超出了我們年初的預期，這讓我們有點措手不及。而且，這種成長來自公司各個不同的業務部門。這讓我們陷入了不幸的境地，我們不得不限制從市場和客戶群中看到的一些需求訊號。我們的團隊與客戶攜手合作，在第三季取得了卓越的成績，我們預計第四季也將如此。因此，我們得以將今年的營收預期提高 17 億美元。但我認為，隨著我們進入第四季度，鑑於我們在整個業務中持續看到的需求訊號，我們實際上將會限製成長。我們一直與客戶一起，將重點放在 Xeon 和 Core 處理器上。因此，從定義上講，低階個人電腦和物聯網業務正受到限制。因此，無論是低階 PC 還是物聯網，我們都將在第四季面臨供應受限的局面。展望明年，考慮到時間安排，我們今年投入了大量資金。今年我們的資本支出創下歷史新高，達到 155 億美元。這比我們年初的預期高出15億美元。我們已經把一些 10 奈米的設備工具重新投入生產，以滿足對 14 奈米技術日益增長的需求。因此，我們正在非常努力地爭取在 2019 年重回正軌。但就目前階段而言，鑑於我們在第四季度看到的需求訊號，我們將受到一些限制。我們正在盡最大努力優先考慮客戶的需求。

Our next question comes from the line of Ambrish Srivastava from Bank of Montreal.

我們的下一個問題來自蒙特利爾銀行的 Ambrish Srivastava。

But one area you did not touch on was CapEx. And I'm asking if you could provide us some directional input on that on what we should expect for CapEx, specifically in light of the Micron call option and implications that has for your spend on the memory side.

但您沒有談到資本支出方面的問題。我想請您就資本支出方面提供一些方向性建議，特別是考慮到美光科技的選擇權及其對記憶體方面支出的影響。

Yes. I think on CapEx at the macro level as we think into '19, we expect logic CapEx to likely be a little higher, and memory CapEx, despite building self-sufficiency on Optane, to be a little bit lower. So at the macro level, those are the dynamics. The -- in terms of how it plays out on overall levels, it's still a work in process. And I'd characterize it, Ambrish, this way. First, it's going to be a function of growth. As we get clear around what growth looks like in 2019 for 14-nanometer, that will impact what the overall CapEx level is. Secondly, if we -- we've made some good progress on 10-nanometer yields over the course of the last 6 months. And as we progress through in the -- through the fourth quarter into 2019, if we're further ahead on 10-nanometer yields, that will influence the amount of CapEx next year. Third, our progress on 7-nanometer, how well we progress in 7-nanometer is also -- will influence how we think about CapEx. And last but not least, as it relates to memory, it's more the customer quals and adoption of our leading edge, 3D NAND 96-layer product as we continue to make progress on developing that. We may deploy that capital, and that pays for itself very quickly. So as we sit here today, CapEx -- I expect logic to be up, memory to be down. And as we look at those 4 things, all of which I'd characterize as being good things if we made progress on all 4 of those, that will influence the rate of CapEx spend next year. So we'll try to provide you a little more analytical color versus that qualitative cover in January.

是的。我認為，展望 2019 年，從宏觀層面來看，我們預計邏輯資本支出可能會略高一些，而內存資本支出，儘管在 Optane 上實現了自給自足，但可能會略低一些。所以從宏觀層面來看，這就是動態變化。就其整體發展而言，這仍然是一個進行中的工作。安布里什，我會這樣描述它。首先，這取決於成長情況。隨著我們對 2019 年 14 奈米技術的成長前景逐漸明朗，這將影響整體資本支出水準。其次，在過去的 6 個月裡，我們在 10 奈米製程的良率方面取得了一些不錯的進展。隨著我們進入 2019 年第四季度，如果我們在 10 奈米製程的良率方面取得更大進展，這將影響明年的資本支出金額。第三，我們在 7 奈米技術方面的進展，我們在 7 奈米技術方面的進展情況，也會影響我們對資本支出的看法。最後，就記憶體而言，更重要的是客戶對我們領先的 3D NAND 96 層產品的滿意度和接受度，因為我們將繼續推進該產品的開發。我們可以投入這筆資金，而且很快就能回本。所以就目前來看，資本支出——我預期邏輯支出會增加，記憶體支出會減少。當我們審視這四件事時，如果這四件事都能取得進展，那將是好事，這將影響明年的資本支出速度。因此，我們將嘗試為您提供一些更具分析性的見解，而不是像一月份那樣以定性報道為主。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Moore from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾。

Wanted to get -- just give us a little more color on the PC numbers in the quarter. How much were you constrained by the shortages that you saw? And I guess, it looks like you grew a little bit more than seasonal on a sequential basis. And how much of the ASP lift that you saw do you think was a function of those shortages? And then just any color on could those shortages spread higher into this product stack over the course of Q4?

想了解一下－請您詳細介紹一下本季個人電腦（PC）的數據。你遇到的物資短缺問題在多大程度上限制了你的發展？我猜，看起來你的生長速度比往年同期快一些。你認為平均售價的上漲有多少是因為這些短缺造成的？那麼，第四季度任何顏色的短缺是否有可能蔓延到該產品系列的更高層級？

Yes, Joe. I think as you saw from the IDC and Gartner folks, growth for PC TAM in the quarter, probably around 1%. Our guess is it was probably a little bit stronger than that, 1% to 2% growth. And within that, we delivered 6% unit growth. So real strong unit growth and again, good ASP momentum. I would say in Q3, largely a function of customer collaboration in our fabs. I don't think we're too terribly constrained on the PC side to be honest with you. I think as we go into Q4 is where I think the constraints are impacting us a little bit more. So I don't think ASPs or supply constraints really -- we did not benefit from higher ASPs, nor were we constrained in terms of unit growth in the quarter. It's more a fourth quarter thing where demand signals remained relatively strong. And as you saw from our guide, while it's good year-on-year growth, it's relatively flat on -- overall on Q3 to Q4. And PCs -- low end of PCs and IoT will be impacted as we see the demand signals at this stage of the game.

是的，喬。我認為正如你從 IDC 和 Gartner 的報告中看到的那樣，本季 PC TAM 的成長可能在 1% 左右。我們估計實際增速可能比這略高一些，介於 1% 到 2% 之間。其中，我們實現了 6% 的銷售成長。銷售成長強勁，平均售價也維持良好勢頭。我認為第三季主要取決於客戶在我們晶圓廠的合作。說實話，我覺得我們在PC方面並沒有受到太大的限制。我認為進入第四季後，這些限制會對我們的影響更大一些。所以我認為平均售價或供應限制並非真正的問題所在——我們既沒有從更高的平均售價中受益，也沒有在本季度的單位增長方面受到限制。這更多是第四季的情況，當時的需求訊號依然相對強勁。正如您從我們的指南中看到的那樣，雖然同比增長良好，但從第三季度到第四季度整體來看，增長相對平緩。而個人電腦——尤其是低階個人電腦和物聯網——將會受到影響，正如我們目前所看到的市場需求訊號所示。

Our next question comes from the line of Weston Twigg from KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Weston Twigg。

I just wanted to ask a little bit. I get the demand's really good here in the back half of 2019, but with the trade war discussions, softening demand in China, some cycle risk indicators, are you seeing anything or talking to customers that would indicate that there would be any first half 2019 risk to demand?

我只是想問一下。我知道2019年下半年的需求非常好，但是考慮到貿易戰的討論、中國需求的疲軟以及一些週期性風險指標，您是否看到或與客戶交談過任何跡象表明2019年上半年的需求會面臨風險？

Yes. It's a great question. I think at the aggregate level, there's what I'd maybe characterize as some decent tailwinds as we go -- as we exit the year and then go into '19 but also some headwinds. The tailwinds, we've -- as you know, we've been talking about an expanded TAM where we play a bigger and bigger role in the increased needs for data. And that larger TAM and the momentum we're building across all of our products is a pretty good tailwind as we look at just demand for data, whether it's with consumers or with businesses going into the new year. That's a tailwind. Secondly, Murthy mentioned a few of the products that we have coming in down the pipe in fourth quarter and going in the next year. And those products, we believe, will deliver more and more performance for our clients, which I'd characterize as a tailwind. And then third in somewhat of a perverse way, as you know, when PC was 70% of the business and when enterprise was 50-plus percent of the data center business and those were declining, it was the headwind for the company's growth. But those more recently have been stable. So whether it's our expanded TAM, our new products or the mix of our business, we have some tailwinds as we think about 2019. At the same time, to your point, there's some headwinds. And the headwinds, first, this has been a fantastic year for us and I think for the industry, and that just makes comps a little bit tougher as we go into next year. Second, we have growing competition. And growing competition can be a headwind for us. And our expectations are we'll deal with that pretty effectively. And third, just global trade. In particular, as you know, China's a big market for us. We got some important customers there, and it's important -- it's an important part of our global supply chain. So as that -- as this most recent round of tariffs kind of play out and we're doing a lot of work with our customers to ensure that the global supply chain can be adjusted and adapted to deal with any tariffs that come down the way, but it's -- I think it's going to be a wait-and-see as we go into 2019. At this stage of the game, we don't see any impact on 2018's results. And in 2019, we have what I'd consider a world-class supply chain team that can manage and weather the dynamics of changes in movements of goods better than anybody else in the industry. So I think that would be a competitive advantage for us as we go into next year.

是的。這是一個很好的問題。我認為從整體來看，隨著我們即將告別2019年，我們可能會迎來一些不錯的順風，但同時也會面臨一些逆風。如你所知，我們一直在談論擴大TAM（潛在市場規模），在這個規模下，我們將在不斷增長的數據需求中扮演越來越重要的角色。更大的市場規模以及我們所有產品正在建立的勢頭，對於我們展望新的一年，無論是消費者還是企業對數據的需求而言，都是相當不錯的順風。這是順風。其次，穆爾蒂提到了一些我們將在第四季和明年推出的產品。我們相信，這些產品將為我們的客戶帶來越來越好的性能，這對我來說無疑是一股順風。第三，從某種程度上來說，如你所知，當個人電腦業務占公司業務的 70%，企業業務佔資料中心業務的 50% 以上時，這些業務都在下滑，這對公司的發展構成了不利影響。但最近這些都比較穩定。因此，無論是我們擴大的市場規模、我們的新產品或我們的業務組合，展望 2019 年，我們都擁有一些有利因素。同時，正如你所說，確實存在一些不利因素。首先，不利因素是，今年對我們來說是非常棒的一年，我認為對整個產業來說也是如此，這使得明年的業績比較更加困難。其次，我們面臨日益激烈的競爭。日益激烈的競爭可能會對我們造成不利影響。我們預計能夠相當有效地處理這個問題。第三，就是全球貿易。尤其值得一提的是，中國對我們來說是一個很大的市場。我們在那裡有一些重要的客戶，而且它很重要——它是我們全球供應鏈的重要組成部分。所以，隨著最近這一輪關稅的逐步實施，我們正在與客戶進行大量工作，以確保全球供應鏈能夠進行調整和適應，以應對未來可能出現的任何關稅，但我認為，進入 2019 年，我們將採取觀望態度。就目前情況來看，我們認為不會對 2018 年的比賽結果產生任何影響。2019 年，我們擁有一支我認為是世界一流的供應鏈團隊，他們能夠比業內任何其他團隊更好地管理和應對貨物流動變化帶來的挑戰。所以我認為這將是我們明年的競爭優勢。

Our next question comes from the line of Tim Arcuri from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的提姆·阿庫裡。

I wanted to ask on the DCG. You're not specifically guiding it next year, but it sounds like you're still pretty bullish. And there's a lot of investors, I think, worried about a hyperscale CapEx slow down next year. So I guess, is it that you're bullish on CapEx next year? Or is it kind of more a commentary on product cycle, maybe Xeon Scalable beginning to catalyze kind of a server upgrade cycle?

我想在DCG上問一下。你雖然沒有明確指出明年的走勢，但聽起來你仍然非常看好它。我認為，很多投資人都擔心明年超大規模資本支出會放緩。所以，我猜你是看好明年的資本支出？或者這更像是對產品週期的一種評論，也許 Xeon Scalable 開始催化伺服器升級週期？

Well, I think, first, we've -- in terms of growth for next year in the aggregate, we haven't really provided any quantitative color, more qualitative cover in terms of the dynamics that we see. That being said, our DCG growth this year is projected to be north of 20%, real strong for the first 3 quarters of the year. So fourth quarter, we expect really solid demand. But it's on a tough -- much tougher comp because fourth quarter last year was a great quarter for the DCG business. As we go into next year, we got -- Murthy highlighted, we've got a good product road map of expanded features for Cascade Lake as we exit this year, Cooper Lake, middle of next year. And we have a much more diverse business now with -- obviously, cloud has been a big accelerant for us. I don't expect that it will grow at 50% forever. 50% was our cloud growth in the quarter. But at the same time, our comms and networking business growth has been accelerating quite a bit, and the stability we've seen in enterprise and government has really helped. So I think next year, we have a much more diverse business. We got a good product lineup and we'll provide a little more color as we get into January. But outstanding year, this year, for data center, both top line and bottom line.

嗯，我認為，首先，就明年整體成長而言，我們還沒有提供任何量化數據，更多的是定性地分析我們所看到的動態。也就是說，我們預計今年的 DCG 成長率將超過 20%，今年前三個季度將非常強勁。因此，我們預計第四季度需求將非常強勁。但今年的同比數據非常糟糕，因為去年第四季是 DCG 業務表現非常出色的季度。展望明年，正如 Murthy 所強調的，我們已經制定了一個很好的產品路線圖，在今年年底前為 Cascade Lake 擴展功能，明年年中為 Cooper Lake 擴展功能。我們現在的業務更加多元化了——顯然，雲端運算對我們而言是一個很大的加速器。我不認為它會永遠以 50% 的速度成長。本季我們的雲端業務成長了50%。但同時，我們的通訊和網路業務成長速度也相當快，企業和政府領域的穩定確實起到了很大的幫助。所以我認為明年我們的業務會更加多元化。我們目前的產品陣容不錯，進入一月後，我們會推出更多新品。但今年對於資料中心來說，無論營收或利潤，都是非常出色的一年。

Our next question comes from the line of Ross Seymore from Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅斯·西摩。

Bob, I want to ask on the gross margins side. First, thank you for the color you gave on 2019. But if I back it up a step, what's the headwinds in the fourth quarter sequentially? And then any big picture moving parts, 10-nanometer yields, mix, what have you that gives you the confidence that you could still stay in the upper half of that 55% to 65% range for 2019?

鮑勃，我想問毛利率方面的問題。首先，感謝你為2019年帶來的色彩。但如果我把時間倒推一步，第四季面臨的不利因素是什麼？那麼，任何影響全局的因素，例如 10 奈米製程的良率、混合製程等等，是否能讓你確信 2019 年的良率仍能維持在 55% 到 65% 的範圍內？

Yes, yes, great question. First, a little color on Q3, and then I'll walk from Q3 to Q4 dynamics. Yes, it's as the -- we highlighted in the materials, 60% -- almost 66% gross margin in the quarter is high as it's been for a very long time. And it was a function of a few things: One, continued volume leverage with full factories; two, ASPs, both on a client side and on the data center side. And those were partially offset by platform cost going up and a change in mix, a growth of our modem and memory business. So those are the 4 dynamics that played out during the course of the quarter. I would say 66% was artificially high, and I'd say that for a couple of reasons. One, we had in our -- in the NSG business, we earned a government incentive that was from scaling our fabs outside the U.S. So that incentive was worth about $110 million. So a bit of a one-timer that we don't expect to repeat itself. Secondly, sell-through of product, either -- on the CPU side, we're working with our customers and shaping demand to where we had inventory. We had good sell-through for some inventory that was previously partially reserved. And then second, on our modem growth, our explosive modem growth in the quarter. We PRQ'd that product in the third quarter. So we got the benefit of previously fully reserved inventory. So what all that means when you adjust for kind of one-timers, the 66% is closer to 64% in terms of normalized basis going into the fourth quarter. Our guide in the fourth quarter, to your question, is 62%. So there's really 3 dynamics that we see playing out in the fourth quarter. One, we expect ASPs to be better. And that's going to be a little bit of a function of the prioritization of Xeon and Core processors, which are higher ASP mix. So we expect that to benefit us. But at the same time, there's 3 other things that as we go into the fourth quarter that I'd characterized as really good things but will have an impact on our gross margin. One is ramping 10-nanometer. We're making good progress on 10-nanometer. Yields are improving, and that's giving us the confidence to, in effect, turn on more equipment and incur the depreciation cost associated with that. So that will impact our Q3 to Q4 gross margins. And it's a function of the progress we're making on 10-nanometer. Second, memory continues to grow, a good 21% growth in the third quarter. We expect it to continue to grow in the fourth quarter. And that has -- our NAND business has been profitable during the course of the year but not at the gross margins of our logic business. And then third, we're experiencing explosive growth on modem with some really good share gains. And the modem product is also -- the combination of memory and modem are accretive to our year-on-year earnings growth but dilutive to our gross margins. So that's the kind of Q3 adjusted gross margin going into Q4 will likely cost us roughly a couple points. As we then step back and think about 2019, those -- we see those same dynamics playing out, primarily 14-nanometer volume. So continued good yield, unit cost performance on 14-nanometer. We don't expect ASPs to be dramatically better in an increasingly competitive environment, but we don't expect them to be much worse. 10-nanometer costs will ramp. And we do expect to continue to grow memory and modem. It'll be accretive to earnings but a little dilutive to gross margin. So again, a fairly long-winded walk from what drove Q3. The goodness operationally of what will happen to Q4 gross margins has been our comfort that 2019 will be a modest degradation. But when coupled with the leverage on our operating expense, our operating margins will be kind of roughly flat in the 34% range.

是的，是的，問得好。首先，先簡單介紹一下 Q3，然後我將從 Q3 過渡到 Q4 的動態分析。是的，正如我們在材料中所強調的那樣，本季的毛利率高達 60% 至 66%，這是很長一段時間以來的最高水準。這主要取決於幾個因素：一是工廠滿載運作帶來的持續產量優勢；二是客戶端和資料中心端的 ASP（平均服務提供者）。而這些損失部分被平台成本上升和產品組合變化所抵消，調變解調器和記憶體業務的成長也促進了這些損失。以上就是本季發生的4個動態變化。我認為 66% 這個數字被人為抬高了，原因有二。第一，在我們的 NSG 業務中，我們獲得了一項政府激勵措施，該措施源於我們在美國境外擴大晶圓廠的規模。這項激勵措施價值約 1.1 億美元。所以這算是一次性事件，我們預計不會再發生了。其次，關於產品的銷售情況—在 CPU 方面，我們正在與客戶合作，引導需求，以適應我們的庫存狀況。我們之前部分預留的庫存銷售情況良好。其次，關於我們調變解調器的成長，本季我們的數據機實現了爆炸性成長。我們在第三季對該產品進行了詢價。因此，我們利用了先前已全部預留的庫存。所以，如果剔除一次性因素，那麼到了第四季度，66% 的正常化比例將更接近 64%。關於您的問題，我們第四季的指導值為 62%。所以，我們看到第四節比賽中主要有三種動態因素在運作。第一，我們預期平均售價會更高。這在一定程度上取決於 Xeon 和 Core 處理器的優先級，因為它們的平均售價更高。所以我們希望這對我們有利。但同時，進入第四季後，還有三件事我認為是非常好的事情，但會對我們的毛利率產生影響。一個正在以 10 奈米的速率遞增。我們在10奈米製程方面取得了良好進展。產量正在提高，這給了我們信心，實際上可以啟用更多設備，並承擔與之相關的折舊成本。因此，這將影響我們第三季到第四季的毛利率。這取決於我們在 10 奈米技術方面取得的進展。其次，記憶體使用量持續成長，第三季成長了 21%。我們預計第四季將繼續成長。而我們的 NAND 業務在這一年中實現了盈利，但毛利率不如我們的邏輯業務。第三，調變解調器業務正經歷爆炸性成長，市場佔有率也取得了非常可觀的提升。調製解調器產品也是如此——內存和調製解調器的結合雖然提高了我們每年的盈利增長，但卻稀釋了我們的毛利率。所以，第三季調整後的毛利率如果維持在這種水平，進入第四季可能會讓我們損失大約兩個百分點。當我們回顧 2019 年，我們會發現同樣的動態再次上演，主要是 14 奈米體積。因此，14 奈米製程持續保持良好的良率和單位成本性能。我們預期在競爭日益激烈的環境下，平均售價不會大幅提高，但也不會大幅下降。10奈米製程的成本將會大幅上升。我們預計記憶體和調變解調器將繼續成長。這將增加盈利，但會略微降低毛利率。所以，從第三季的驅動因素來看，這又是一段相當漫長的歷程。從營運角度來看，第四季毛利率的良好走勢讓我們感到安心，因為 2019 年的毛利率只會略有下降。但考慮到我們對營運費用的槓桿作用，我們的營業利潤率將大致保持在 34% 左右。

And operator, I think we've got time for 2 more questions.

接線員，我想我們還有時間再問兩個問題。

Certainly. Our next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

當然。我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行美林證券的維韋克·阿亞。

Bob, just one more on 10-nanometer. You mentioned it's on track. Is there a way to kind of quantify progress on 10-nanometer over the last 3 months? And if you were to kind of go back to a similar time when you were getting ready to make the jump to 14-nanometer, are the 10-nanometer yields and cost behaving in a similar way? Just any color around progress would be helpful.

鮑勃，10奈米製程就差一個了。你提到一切進展順利。有沒有辦法量化過去三個月在 10 奈米製程的進展？如果回到當初準備向 14 奈米製程過渡的類似時期，10 奈米製程的良率和成本表現是否也類似呢？在進度條周圍添加任何顏色都會有所幫助。

Vivek, let me take that. This is Murphy. First of all, as Bob said in his opening remarks, the progress we've made in the quarter is very much in line with our expectations. While we can't give any specific numbers, I do believe that the yields as we speak now are tracking roughly in line with what we experienced in 14-nanometer. So we're still very much reinforcing and reaffirming our previous guidance that we believe that we'll have 10-nanometer shipping by holiday of 2019. And if anything, I feel more confident about that at this call than I did in the call a quarter ago. So we're making good progress, and I think we're making the quarter-on-quarter progress that's consistent with prior generations having reset the progress curve.

維韋克，讓我來接吧。這是墨菲。首先，正如鮑伯在開場白中所說，我們本季的進展與我們的預期非常吻合。雖然我們無法給出具體數字，但我相信，就目前而言，良率大致與我們在 14 奈米製程中所經歷的良率一致。因此，我們仍然非常強調並重申我們先前的指導意見，即我們相信到 2019 年假期前我們將實現 10 奈米製程的產品出貨。而且，與三個月前的電話會議相比，我感覺到這次電話會議讓我對此更有信心。所以我們正在取得良好的進展，我認為我們每季的進展與前幾代人重置進展曲線的情況一致。

Our final question comes from the line of Romit Shah from Nomura Instinet.

我們的最後一個問題來自野村證券的羅米特·沙阿。

Bob, you've -- you said that progress on 7-nanometer will also be a factor driving CapEx next year. And I was hoping you could maybe talk about that a little bit more. When you talk about progress, is that a statement about yields meaning if 7-nanometer yields are improving, you could potentially deploy more CapEx to ramp that process note a little earlier?

鮑勃，你說過，7奈米技術的進展也將是明年推動資本支出的因素之一。我希望您能再多談談這方面的內容。當你談到進展時，是指良率嗎？也就是說，如果 7 奈米製程的良率正在提高，你就可以投入更多資本支出，以便更早提高該製程的產量？

Well, it's -- we haven't really given a time line for 7, so to say it's ramping earlier would be a little bit of a stretch. But this is -- we've been investing in EUV for a while, and we've obviously been investing in 7-nanometer. And when we step back and think about CapEx for next year, again, it's a function of growth on 14. It's a function of the rate in which we scale 10, and it's a function of investments we'd make to begin to prove out 7 in a more meaningful way. So those are just the dynamics that we're looking at and thinking about as we get closer to giving you a more definitive guide for CapEx in '19.

嗯，我們還沒有給出第 7 集的具體時間表，所以說它會提前啟動有點誇張了。但是——我們已經在 EUV 技術上投入了一段時間，而且顯然我們也一直在投資 7 奈米技術。當我們回顧並考慮明年的資本支出時，它仍然取決於 14 的成長。這取決於我們擴展 10 的速度，也取決於我們為了以更有意義的方式驗證 7 而進行的投資。所以，這些就是我們在接近為您提供 2019 年資本支出更權威指南時正在關注和思考的動態因素。

All right. Thank you all for joining us today. Operator, please go ahead and wrap up the call.

好的。感謝各位今天蒞臨。接線員，請結束通話。

Certainly. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.

當然。感謝各位女士、先生參加今天的會議。節目到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。再會。