英特爾 (INTC) 2018 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Intel Corporation's Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call.

女士們，先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加英特爾公司 2018 年第三季度收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's program is being recorded.

（操作員說明）提醒一下，今天的節目正在錄製中。

And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Mark Henninger, Head of Investor Relations.

現在我想介紹一下今天節目的主持人，投資者關係主管 Mark Henninger。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝你，接線員。

And welcome, everyone, to Intel's Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call.

歡迎大家參加英特爾 2018 年第三季度財報電話會議。

By now, you should have received a copy of our earnings release and the CFO earnings presentation that goes along with it.

到目前為止，您應該已經收到了我們的收益發布和隨附的 CFO 收益演示文稿的副本。

If you've not received both documents, they're available on our investor website, intc.com.

如果您沒有收到這兩個文件，可以在我們的投資者網站 intc.com 上找到它們。

The CFO earnings presentation is also available on the webcast window for those joining us online.

在線加入我們的人也可以在網絡廣播窗口上觀看 CFO 收益報告。

I'm joined by Bob Swan, our interim CEO and Chief Financial Officer; and Murthy Renduchintala, Group President of the Technology, Systems Architecture & Client Group, and Chief Engineering Officer.

我們的臨時首席執行官兼首席財務官 Bob Swan 也加入了我的行列； Murthy Renduchintala，技術、系統架構和客戶集團總裁兼首席工程官。

Navin Shenoy and his wife are welcoming a new baby, and as a result, he won't be joining us today.

Navin Shenoy 和他的妻子正在迎接一個新寶寶，因此，他今天不會加入我們。

In a moment, we'll hear brief remarks from Bob, followed by Q&A.

稍後，我們將聽到 Bob 的簡短評論，然後是問答環節。

Before we begin, let me remind everyone that today's discussion contains forward-looking statements based on the environment as we currently see it, and as such, does include risks and uncertainties.

在開始之前，讓我提醒大家，今天的討論包含基於我們目前所看到的環境的前瞻性陳述，因此確實包含風險和不確定性。

Please refer to our press release for more information on the specific risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially.

請參閱我們的新聞稿，了解有關可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的特定風險因素的更多信息。

A brief reminder that this quarter, we have provided both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures.

簡要提醒一下，本季度我們提供了 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標。

Today, we will be speaking to the non-GAAP financial measures when describing our consolidated results.

今天，我們將在描述我們的綜合結果時談到非公認會計原則的財務指標。

The CFO commentary and earnings release available on intc.com include the full GAAP and non-GAAP reconciliations.

intc.com 上提供的 CFO 評論和收益發布包括完整的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 對賬。

With that, let me hand it over to Bob.

有了這個，讓我把它交給鮑勃。

Thanks, Mark.

謝謝，馬克。

This summer, we celebrated our 50th anniversary, and this quarter was the best quarter in our 50-year history.

今年夏天，我們慶祝了 50 週年，這個季度是我們 50 年曆史上最好的一個季度。

Record quarterly revenue of $19.2 billion was up 19%.

創紀錄的季度收入 192 億美元，增長 19%。

Our operating margins expanded 5 points, and earnings per share of $1.40 was up 39%.

我們的營業利潤率擴大了 5 個百分點，每股收益為 1.40 美元，增長了 39%。

Our results were driven by incredibly strong demand and customer preference for the performance of our leadership products across the business.

我們的業績受到令人難以置信的強勁需求和客戶對我們在整個業務中的領先產品性能的偏好的推動。

Our data center, client computing, Internet of Things, memory and Mobileye businesses all achieved record revenue.

我們的數據中心、客戶端計算、物聯網、內存和 Mobileye 業務均實現了創紀錄的收入。

We expect 2018 to be the best year ever and our third record year in a row.

我們預計 2018 年將是有史以來最好的一年，也是我們連續第三年創紀錄。

Before we get deeper into the financials, I'll take a few minutes to talk about our strategy, our products and our people.

在深入了解財務之前，我將花幾分鐘時間談談我們的戰略、我們的產品和我們的員工。

First, our strategy.

首先，我們的戰略。

We are growing share in a larger TAM, driving operating leverage while increasing our R&D investments and delivering attractive capital returns.

我們在更大的 TAM 中的份額正在增加，提高了運營槓桿，同時增加了我們的研發投資並提供了有吸引力的資本回報。

Our thesis is that the massive growth of data worldwide will increase demand for the analysis, storage and sharing of data.

我們的論點是，全球數據的大規模增長將增加對數據分析、存儲和共享的需求。

We are one of the few companies that touches every part of the data revolution.

我們是為數不多的涉及數據革命各個方面的公司之一。

And we've invested both organically and acquisitively to capitalize on these trends to accelerate the growth of the company while at the same time, delivering significant operating leverage and exiting noncore businesses.

我們已經進行了有機和收購性投資，以利用這些趨勢來加速公司的發展，同時提供顯著的運營槓桿和退出非核心業務。

Our disciplined focus is delivering outstanding results.

我們嚴格的重點是提供出色的結果。

Demand in growth this year continue to exceed our expectations.

今年的需求增長繼續超出我們的預期。

Collectively, our data-centric businesses are up 22% year-to-date, led by growth in the cloud and communication service provider segments.

總體而言，我們以數據為中心的業務今年迄今增長了 22%，這主要得益於雲和通信服務提供商領域的增長。

In both our data centric and PC businesses, our CPU leadership puts us in a great position to capitalize on this massive data opportunity by delivering more value to a broader set of customers.

在我們以數據為中心的業務和 PC 業務中，我們的 CPU 領導地位使我們處於有利位置，可以通過為更廣泛的客戶群提供更多價值來利用這一巨大的數據機會。

We've expanded beyond CPUs with memory, modems, FPGAs and silicon for emerging high-growth workloads like ADAS, artificial intelligence and 5G communications.

我們已經擴展到具有內存、調製解調器、FPGA 和矽的 CPU 之外，適用於 ADAS、人工智能和 5G 通信等新興的高增長工作負載。

We acquired Mobileye, which has integrated Intel Architecture to produce the industry's leading ADAS and autonomous driving platforms.

我們收購了 Mobileye，它集成了英特爾架構來生產業界領先的 ADAS 和自動駕駛平台。

Mobileye also just announced the ability to fully retrofit existing vehicles to deliver full autonomy, moving Mobileye further up the value chain.

Mobileye 還剛剛宣布能夠對現有車輛進行全面改造以實現完全自主，從而將 Mobileye 進一步提升到價值鏈上。

The acquisitions of Altera and Movidius are enabling us to partner with customers to expand the markets that they serve.

收購 Altera 和 Movidius 使我們能夠與客戶合作以擴大他們所服務的市場。

They're developing new AI capabilities by combining our Core products with our FPGAs and VPUs.

他們正在通過將我們的核心產品與我們的 FPGA 和 VPU 相結合來開發新的 AI 功能。

This is most evident in computer vision applications, which cut across all of our IoT verticals.

這在計算機視覺應用中最為明顯，它跨越了我們所有的物聯網垂直領域。

As a result, our opportunity has never been bigger.

因此，我們的機會從未如此之大。

We are competing and winning share in a $300 billion TAM, transforming from a PC-centric company to a data-centric company in the process.

我們在價值 3000 億美元的 TAM 中競爭並贏得份額，在此過程中從以 PC 為中心的公司轉變為以數據為中心的公司。

We now expect full year revenue to grow more than $8.4 billion over 2017.

我們現在預計 2017 年全年收入將增長超過 84 億美元。

And in the first 9 months of the year, we have returned $12.6 billion to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends or 112% of free cash flow.

今年前 9 個月，我們以回購和股息或 112% 的自由現金流的形式向股東返還了 126 億美元。

We've also achieved outstanding growth in our PC-centric business.

我們在以 PC 為中心的業務方面也取得了顯著的增長。

After 7 years of decline, we expect modest growth in the PC TAM this year, and we continue to gain share in modems.

經過 7 年的下滑，我們預計今年 PC TAM 將適度增長，並且我們將繼續在調製解調器中獲得份額。

We've focused our investments in the PC sector and the areas where we see growth and where our performance leadership and differentiation matters most, the commercial, gaming and 2-in-1 segments.

我們將投資重點放在個人電腦領域以及我們認為增長的領域以及我們的性能領先和差異化最重要的領域，即商業、遊戲和二合一領域。

Second, our products.

第二，我們的產品。

Our strategy is delivering results because we have products that are solving our customers' problems.

我們的戰略是交付成果，因為我們擁有解決客戶問題的產品。

We're making the products we have even better and expanding our portfolio to deliver more value to customers.

我們正在使我們擁有的產品變得更好，並擴大我們的產品組合，為客戶提供更多價值。

One of the most important things we do is collaborate with our customers and ecosystem partners to deliver exciting new computing experiences.

我們所做的最重要的事情之一是與我們的客戶和生態系統合作夥伴合作，以提供令人興奮的新計算體驗。

We do that broadly with our OEMs.

我們與我們的原始設備製造商一起廣泛地做到這一點。

An example in our PC business was the launch of the stunning, new HP Spectre Folio, a 2-in-1 we worked closely with HP to develop.

我們 PC 業務的一個例子是推出了令人驚嘆的全新 HP Spectre Folio，這是我們與 HP 密切合作開發的二合一產品。

We leveraged our expertise in thermal tuning and motherboard miniaturization while achieving up to 19 hours battery life through power tuning and the use of Intel's low-power display technology.

我們利用我們在熱調整和主板小型化方面的專業知識，同時通過電源調整和使用英特爾的低功耗顯示技術實現長達 19 小時的電池壽命。

This sort of innovation is impossible without Intel's exceptionally broad range of IP and the scale and expertise to partner deeply with our customers on design.

如果沒有英特爾異常廣泛的 IP 範圍以及與我們的客戶在設計方面深入合作的規模和專業知識，這種創新是不可能的。

We also launched the new 9th Gen Intel Core desktop processors, including the world's best gaming processor.

我們還推出了全新的第 9 代智能英特爾酷睿台式機處理器，包括世界上最好的遊戲處理器。

In our data-centric businesses, we announced 95 new performance world records for Xeon Scalable and continue to see strong adoption while we work with customers to get ready for the transition to Cascade Lake.

在我們以數據為中心的業務中，我們宣布了 Xeon Scalable 的 95 項新的性能世界紀錄，並且在我們與客戶合作為過渡到 Cascade Lake 做好準備的同時，我們繼續看到強大的採用率。

Cascade Lake introduces hardware-based side channel mitigation, Intel DL Boost with 11x inference speed-up and a revolutionary new technology, Optane DC persistent memory.

Cascade Lake 引入了基於硬件的側通道緩解、具有 11 倍推理加速的 Intel DL Boost 和革命性的新技術 Optane DC 持久內存。

And we're deepening our engagement with customers on custom SKUs.

我們正在加深與客戶在定制 SKU 上的互動。

In fact, we'll have 60% more custom SKUs in the Cascade Lake family than the prior generation.

事實上，Cascade Lake 系列中的定制 SKU 將比上一代產品多 60%。

We shipped our first revenue units of Optane DC persistent memory to Google, Microsoft and Alibaba, and we're already receiving great feedback.

我們向谷歌、微軟和阿里巴巴發送了我們的第一批 Optane DC 持久內存收入單元，並且我們已經收到了很好的反饋。

Microsoft reported a new performance record of 13.7 million IOPs using Xeon Scalable and Optane, a level they said they've never seen with any other platform approach.

微軟報告了使用 Xeon Scalable 和 Optane 的 1370 萬 IOP 的新性能記錄，他們表示這是他們從未見過的任何其他平台方法的水平。

Customers also continue to choose Intel as a partner as they use artificial intelligence to transform their businesses.

客戶還繼續選擇英特爾作為合作夥伴，因為他們使用人工智能來改變他們的業務。

Taboola chose Intel Xeon over GPUs for a massive inference speed-up and scale out across 7 data centers, delivering 360 billion content recommendations monthly.

Taboola 選擇了英特爾至強而不是 GPU，以實現大規模推理加速和跨 7 個數據中心的橫向擴展，每月提供 3600 億條內容推薦。

Rolls-Royce will design autonomous ships running inference on Xeon and are evaluating more of our portfolio in a multiyear engagement.

勞斯萊斯將設計在 Xeon 上運行推理的自主船舶，並在多年的合作中評估我們的更多產品組合。

Mobileye customer momentum continued with 8 new design wins at major U.S. and global automakers, bringing our 2018 design win total to 20.

Mobileye 客戶勢頭繼續保持，在美國和全球主要汽車製造商贏得了 8 項新設計大獎，使我們 2018 年的設計大獎總數達到 20 項。

Mobileye also shipped 3.3 million EyeQ SoCs in the third quarter, bringing lifetime total to more than 33 million units.

Mobileye 在第三季度還出貨了 330 萬片 EyeQ SoC，使總壽命超過 3300 萬片。

While our current product lineup is compelling, our road map is even more exciting.

雖然我們目前的產品陣容引人注目，但我們的路線圖更令人興奮。

We continue to make good progress on 10-nanometer.

我們繼續在 10 納米方面取得良好進展。

Yields are improving, and we're on track for 10-nanometer-based systems on shelves during the holiday 2019 selling season.

產量正在提高，我們有望在 2019 年假日銷售季節推出基於 10 納米的系統。

The breadth of IP we've assembled, combined with Intel's design, software, packaging and manufacturing capability, gives us an unmatched ability to invent the industry's future.

我們組裝的 IP 廣度與英特爾的設計、軟件、封裝和製造能力相結合，賦予了我們創造行業未來的無與倫比的能力。

Third, and most importantly, our people.

第三，也是最重要的，我們的人民。

Intel has amazing talent, including world-class scientists and engineers, and we are making excellent progress toward our commitment to a fully representative workforce.

英特爾擁有令人驚嘆的人才，包括世界一流的科學家和工程師，而且我們在致力於打造具有完全代表性的員工隊伍方面取得了巨大進展。

Intel employees are at their best when they're working together to address challenges.

英特爾員工在共同應對挑戰時處於最佳狀態。

And faced with explosive and unexpected demand this year, they've exhibited incredible problem-solving skills to deliver this quarter's results.

面對今年爆炸性和意想不到的需求，他們展示了令人難以置信的解決問題的能力，以實現本季度的業績。

The PC TAM has returned to growth, and our data center business is growing at more than twice the rate we expected in January.

PC TAM 已恢復增長，我們的數據中心業務的增長速度是我們 1 月份預期的兩倍多。

Our full year revenue outlook is now more than $6 billion higher than our January forecast.

我們的全年收入前景現在比我們 1 月份的預測高出 60 億美元以上。

And we have supply to support this revised guidance, thanks to outstanding responsiveness from our factory teams.

由於我們工廠團隊的出色響應，我們有供應來支持這個修訂後的指南。

We are focused on doing everything possible not to constrain our customers' growth.

我們專注於盡一切可能不限制客戶的成長。

We've increased our CapEx by $1.5 billion since January to a record $15.5 billion.

自 1 月份以來，我們的資本支出增加了 15 億美元，達到創紀錄的 155 億美元。

We've repositioned some 10-nanometer capacity to 14-nanometer, and we're making progress with our 10-nanometer process technology.

我們已經將一些 10 納米的產能重新定位為 14 納米，並且我們的 10 納米工藝技術正在取得進展。

Supply is tightest at the entry-level of the PC market and in our IoTG business.

在 PC 市場的入門級和我們的 IoTG 業務中，供應最為緊張。

Within our CPU product lines, we're prioritizing the production of our Xeon and Core processors so that we and our customers can serve the high performance segments in the market.

在我們的 CPU 產品線中，我們優先生產至強和酷睿處理器，以便我們和我們的客戶能夠服務於市場上的高性能細分市場。

Our biggest challenge in Q4 will be meeting any additional PC and IoTG demand beyond our guidance, and we do expect fourth quarter upside from here will be limited.

我們在第四季度面臨的最大挑戰將是滿足超出我們指導的任何額外的 PC 和 IoTG 需求，我們確實預計第四季度的上行空間將有限。

Summing it up, our strategy, leadership products and amazing people combined to produce the best quarter in the company's history.

總而言之，我們的戰略、領導力產品和出色的員工共同創造了公司歷史上最好的季度。

We're well on track to another record year.

我們正朝著另一個創紀錄的年份邁進。

With that, let's turn to the details.

有了這個，讓我們轉向細節。

Third quarter revenue of $19.2 billion was up 19% year-over-year.

第三季度收入為 192 億美元，同比增長 19%。

Our data-centric businesses were collectively up 22%, and our PC-centric business was up 16%.

我們以數據為中心的業務增長了 22%，以 PC 為中心的業務增長了 16%。

Outstanding business performance, continued operating leverage and a lower tax rate resulted in non-GAAP net income of $6.5 billion, up 34% year-over-year.

出色的業務表現、持續的經營槓桿和較低的稅率導致非美國通用會計準則淨收入為 65 億美元，同比增長 34%。

EPS of $1.40 was up 39% year-over-year.

每股收益為 1.40 美元，同比增長 39%。

Year-to-date, we have generated $11.2 billion of free cash flow and returned $12.6 billion to shareholders, including $4.2 billion in dividends and $8.5 billion in buybacks, repurchasing 167 million shares.

年初至今，我們已經產生了 112 億美元的自由現金流，向股東返還了 126 億美元，其中包括 42 億美元的股息和 85 億美元的回購，回購了 1.67 億股股票。

We continue to see strong momentum in our business and are raising our full year revenue guide by $1.7 billion to $71.2 billion.

我們繼續看到我們業務的強勁勢頭，並將全年收入指南提高 17 億美元至 712 億美元。

We are also raising our EPS guide by $0.38 versus July to $4.53 and our free cash flow guide by $500 million to $15.5 billion.

我們還將每股收益指南與 7 月份相比提高了 0.38 美元至 4.53 美元，將我們的自由現金流指南提高了 5 億美元至 155 億美元。

Our revenue guidance for 2018 is up greater than $6 billion versus our January expectations as we focus on a strong finish to a record year.

我們對 2018 年的收入指導比我們 1 月份的預期增加了 60 億美元以上，因為我們專注於創紀錄的一年的強勁收官。

Our leadership products continue to win share in our expanded TAM as both our data-centric and PC-centric businesses grew at double-digit rates this quarter.

隨著我們以數據為中心和以 PC 為中心的業務在本季度以兩位數的速度增長，我們的領先產品繼續在我們擴展的 TAM 中贏得份額。

Our data-centric businesses were up 22% as customers choose our performance products to move, store and process more data faster from the cloud to the edge.

我們以數據為中心的業務增長了 22%，因為客戶選擇我們的高性能產品來更快地從雲端移動、存儲和處理更多數據到邊緣。

And our PC-centric business was up 16% as we saw continued strength in the commercial and gaming PC segments and grew modem share.

我們以 PC 為中心的業務增長了 16%，因為我們看到商用和遊戲 PC 領域的持續增長以及調製解調器份額的增長。

Operating income increased by more than $2 billion with margin up 5.1 points year-over-year in the third quarter, marking our highest operating margin percentage since 2011.

第三季度營業收入增長超過 20 億美元，利潤率同比增長 5.1 個百分點，這是我們自 2011 年以來的最高營業利潤率百分比。

EPS climbed to $1.40, up 39% year-on-year.

每股收益攀升至 1.40 美元，同比增長 39%。

Our EPS improvement was driven by growing demand for high-performance products in the data center and client businesses leading to higher volumes and ASPs, continued growth in our adjacent businesses, a lower tax rate and lower share count as a result of buybacks.

我們的每股收益改善是由於數據中心和客戶業務對高性能產品的需求不斷增長導致銷量和平均售價增加、我們相鄰業務的持續增長、較低的稅率和回購導致的股票數量減少。

Our focus on operational efficiency continues to produce strong results.

我們對運營效率的關注繼續產生強勁的成果。

We now expect full year spending as a percentage of revenue to be approximately 29%, down about 7 points since 2015 while R&D is up $1.4 billion over the same period.

我們現在預計全年支出佔收入的百分比約為 29%，自 2015 年以來下降了約 7 個百分點，而同期研發費用增加了 14 億美元。

We continue to improve our leverage while increasing investment in our key priorities such as product leadership, artificial intelligence and autonomous driving.

我們繼續提高我們的槓桿率，同時增加對我們的關鍵優先事項的投資，例如產品領導力、人工智能和自動駕駛。

Disciplined spending with a focus on prioritizing the most important investment opportunities is a key lever in magnifying our revenue opportunities and it's apparent in our results.

專注於優先考慮最重要的投資機會的有紀律的支出是擴大我們收入機會的關鍵槓桿，這在我們的結果中顯而易見。

Over the last 3 years, we've grown annual revenue by nearly $16 billion while adding less than $600 million in spending, resulting in a more than 25% increase in revenue per employee.

在過去 3 年中，我們的年收入增長了近 160 億美元，而新增支出不到 6 億美元，每位員工的收入增長了 25% 以上。

Now some Q3 performance highlights by segment.

現在按細分市場劃分了一些第三季度的業績亮點。

The Data Center Group delivered its first $6 billion revenue quarter as it shipped more than 8 million CPUs into an annual server, storage, network and CPU TAM that is greater than 30 million units.

數據中心集團實現了第一個 60 億美元的收入季度，它向超過 3000 萬個單位的年度服務器、存儲、網絡和 CPU TAM 運送了超過 800 萬個 CPU。

Revenue of $6.1 billion was up 26% year-over-year, and operating income of $3.1 billion was up 37% year-over-year.

收入 61 億美元，同比增長 26%，營業收入 31 億美元，同比增長 37%。

Q3 operating margin was 50%.

第三季度營業利潤率為 50%。

And we continue to see strong acceleration in both the cloud and comms service providers segments, which make up more than 2/3 of DCG revenue.

我們繼續看到雲和通信服務提供商領域的強勁增長，佔 DCG 收入的 2/3 以上。

Platform unit volume was up 15%, and ASPs were up 10%.

平台單位銷量增長 15%，平均售價增長 10%。

Non-CPU adjacencies grew 14% over last year.

非 CPU 鄰接比去年增長了 14%。

The cloud business grew 50% year-over-year with strong growth trends across our diversified customer base.

雲業務同比增長 50%，在我們多元化的客戶群中呈現強勁的增長趨勢。

Our comms service providers segment grew 30% year-over-year as customers continue to transform their networks with Intel Architecture as they prepare for 5G.

我們的通信服務提供商部門同比增長 30%，因為客戶在為 5G 做準備時繼續使用英特爾架構改造他們的網絡。

And our enterprise segment was up 1% year-over-year as a strong IT spending environment continued with CIOs prioritizing investment in private and hybrid cloud implementations.

我們的企業部門同比增長 1%，因為 IT 支出環境持續強勁，首席信息官優先投資私有云和混合雲實施。

Our other data-centric businesses, IoTG, NSG and PSG, achieved solid growth in the third quarter and together were up 13% year-over-year or 17%, excluding Wind River.

我們的其他以數據為中心的業務，IoTG、NSG 和 PSG，在第三季度實現了穩健增長，不包括風河，合計同比增長 13% 或 17%。

Our Internet of Things business achieved record revenue of $919 million on broad business strength, up 8% or 19% excluding Wind River.

我們的物聯網業務憑藉廣泛的業務實力實現了創紀錄的 9.19 億美元收入，不包括風河，增長 8% 或 19%。

Operating profit was $321 million, up 120% year-over-year on growing demand and revenue scale.

營業利潤為 3.21 億美元，由於需求和收入規模的增長，同比增長 120%。

Mobileye had record revenue of $191 million, up approximately 50% over last year as ADAS adoption continues to accelerate.

隨著 ADAS 的採用繼續加速，Mobileye 的收入達到創紀錄的 1.91 億美元，比去年增長約 50%。

Our memory business delivered record revenue of $1.1 billion, up 21% year-over-year as we continue to redefine the storage paradigm with industry-leading, low-cost, high-density NAND SSDs and the revolutionary performance of Optane drives.

我們的內存業務實現了創紀錄的 11 億美元收入，同比增長 21%，因為我們繼續通過行業領先的低成本、高密度 NAND SSD 和 Optane 驅動器的革命性性能重新定義存儲模式。

We have now reached the crossover point with 50% of our data center and client SSDs shifted to cost-effective, 64-layer 3D NAND, leading to rapidly improving cost per gigabyte.

我們現在已經達到了交叉點，我們 50% 的數據中心和客戶端 SSD 轉向具有成本效益的 64 層 3D NAND，從而迅速提高了每 GB 成本。

At the same time, as a result of pursuing 3D XPoint development independently and a tougher NAND pricing environment, we now expect NSG to be approximately breakeven for the full year.

同時，由於獨立追求 3D XPoint 開發和更嚴峻的 NAND 定價環境，我們現在預計 NSG 全年將大致實現盈虧平衡。

Micron recently announced their intent to call the IMFT factory.

美光最近宣布他們打算打電話給 IMFT 工廠。

Our agreements with Micron ensure a reliable and cost-effective supply of 3D XPoint through at least 2020.

我們與美光的協議可確保至少在 2020 年之前可靠且具有成本效益地供應 3D XPoint。

And we have developed internal manufacturing options, which can be executed well within that time frame.

我們開發了內部製造選項，可以在該時間範圍內很好地執行。

PSG's revenue came in at $496 million, up 6% on strength in data center and comms segments.

PSG 的收入為 4.96 億美元，在數據中心和通信領域增長 6%。

PSG's data center segment was up 45% over last year.

PSG 的數據中心部門比去年增長了 45%。

In the advanced products category our 28-, 20- and 14-nanometer solutions grew 55%.

在高級產品類別中，我們的 28、20 和 14 納米解決方案增長了 55%。

Operating profit was $106 million, down 6% year-over-year.

營業利潤為 1.06 億美元，同比下降 6%。

Finally, the Client Computing Group delivered exceptional results with its first $10 billion quarter, up 16% year-over-year.

最後，客戶端計算集團在其首個 100 億美元的季度取得了非凡的業績，同比增長 16%。

Commercial and gaming demand continued to be very strong.

商業和遊戲需求繼續非常強勁。

The notebook segment grew 13% year-over-year.

筆記本電腦市場同比增長 13%。

The desktop segment grew 9% year-over-year.

台式機市場同比增長 9%。

And client adjacencies grew 66% year-over-year, led by the 131% growth in our modem business.

在我們的調製解調器業務增長 131% 的帶動下，客戶鄰接量同比增長 66%。

Operating profit grew $932 million year-over-year, while operating margin up 3.7 points.

營業利潤同比增長 9.32 億美元，營業利潤率增長 3.7 個百分點。

Leadership product performance and segmentation contribute to strong mix and higher ASPs.

領先的產品性能和細分有助於強大的組合和更高的 ASP。

The investments we have made in the business organically and through acquisition are delivering excellent cash flow generation.

我們通過收購有機地對業務進行的投資正在產生出色的現金流。

Year-to-date, we have generated $22.5 billion in cash from operations.

年初至今，我們已經從運營中產生了 225 億美元的現金。

We have invested $11.3 billion in capital expenditures and delivered $11.2 billion in free cash flow, up 57% over the first 3 quarters of last year.

我們在資本支出上投入了 113 億美元，實現了 112 億美元的自由現金流，比去年前三個季度增長了 57%。

During this period, we returned 112% of our free cash flow to our shareholders.

在此期間，我們將 112% 的自由現金流返還給了股東。

Buybacks totaled $8.5 billion, and dividends totaled $4.2 billion.

回購總額為 85 億美元，股息總額為 42 億美元。

In addition, settlements of our convertible debt reduced fully diluted shares by $22 million.

此外，我們可轉換債務的結算使完全稀釋的股份減少了 2200 萬美元。

Now turning to our full year outlook.

現在轉向我們的全年展望。

We started the year in January expecting to generate $65 billion in revenue, 30% operating margin and $3.55 in EPS.

我們從 1 月份開始，預計將產生 650 億美元的收入、30% 的營業利潤率和 3.55 美元的每股收益。

9 months later, the growth that we and the industry has seen has been remarkable.

9 個月後，我們和整個行業所看到的增長非常顯著。

We couldn't be more pleased that in an increasingly competitive market, our customers are choosing Intel.

在競爭日益激烈的市場中，我們的客戶選擇了英特爾，這讓我們感到非常高興。

Our leadership products are winning across our data-centric businesses, and we're seeing strong demand upside in the client business that not long ago many thought was in perpetual decline.

我們的領先產品在我們以數據為中心的業務中獲勝，並且我們看到客戶業務的強勁需求上升，不久前許多人認為這種需求一直在下降。

We are now forecasting revenue of approximately $71.2 billion, up $1.7 billion versus our expectations in July.

我們現在預測收入約為 712 億美元，比我們 7 月份的預期增加 17 億美元。

This represents a $6.2 billion increase versus the expectations we set just 9 months ago.

這比我們在 9 個月前設定的預期增加了 62 億美元。

We now expect data-centric growth to be approximately 20% year-over-year and PC-centric growth to be around 9% year-over-year.

我們現在預計以數據為中心的增長將同比增長約 20%，以 PC 為中心的增長將同比增長約 9%。

Our outlook for operating margin is approximately 34.5%, up 2.5 points from July as we now expect to deliver 29% spending to revenue, not only hitting our original goal 2 years early, but beating it.

我們的營業利潤率前景約為 34.5%，比 7 月提高 2.5 個百分點，因為我們現在預計將 29% 的支出用於收入，不僅提前 2 年達到我們的原始目標，而且超過了它。

We expect the full year tax rate of around 12%, down slightly from our prior estimate.

我們預計全年稅率約為 12%，略低於我們之前的估計。

Overall, we expect strong top line growth and improving operating leverage will drive EPS to $4.53, up $0.38 from our estimate in July.

總體而言，我們預計強勁的收入增長和改善的經營槓桿將推動每股收益達到 4.53 美元，比我們 7 月份的估計高 0.38 美元。

As a result of increased demand, we are raising our forecast for gross CapEx to $15.5 billion or approximately $14 billion net of memory prepayments.

由於需求增加，我們將資本支出總額的預測上調至 155 億美元，即扣除內存預付款後的淨額約為 140 億美元。

We are now expecting free cash flow of $15.5 billion, up $500 million from July.

我們現在預計自由現金流為 155 億美元，比 7 月增加 5 億美元。

For Q4, we are forecasting revenue of approximately $19 billion, up 11% year-over-year.

對於第四季度，我們預計收入約為 190 億美元，同比增長 11%。

We expect operating margins of approximately 34.5% and gross margin of approximately 62%.

我們預計營業利潤率約為 34.5%，毛利率約為 62%。

We also expect EPS at $1.22, up 38% excluding equity adjustments from business growth, spending leverage and a lower tax rate.

我們還預計每股收益為 1.22 美元，不包括業務增長、支出槓桿和較低稅率的股權調整，增長 38%。

We expect DCG to set another revenue record of approximately $6.3 billion in the fourth quarter.

我們預計 DCG 將在第四季度再創約 63 億美元的收入記錄。

Due to supply constraints, we anticipate IoTG revenue will be down approximately 15% sequentially.

由於供應限制，我們預計 IoTG 收入將環比下降約 15%。

As we look forward to 2019, we expect to deliver another record year for the company.

展望 2019 年，我們預計該公司將迎來又一個創紀錄的一年。

We'll have more to say about 2019 in January, but we're expecting that our operating margin percentage will be approximately flat next year.

1 月份我們將有更多關於 2019 年的信息，但我們預計明年我們的營業利潤率百分比將大致持平。

We expect gross margins to remain in the upper half of our historical 55% to 65% range.

我們預計毛利率將保持在我們歷史 55% 至 65% 範圍的上半部分。

And while we expect 2019 gross margin percentage to be down slightly from Q4 '18 levels as we continue to gain share in our adjacent businesses and we ramp our 10-nanometer process, that will be offset by increasing OpEx leverage as we continue to make thoughtful trade-offs and invest in R&D that will accelerate our growth and profitability.

雖然我們預計 2019 年的毛利率將比 18 年第四季度的水平略有下降，因為我們將繼續在相鄰業務中獲得份額，並且我們會增加 10 納米工藝，但隨著我們繼續深思熟慮，這將被增加的運營支出槓桿所抵消權衡和投資於研發，這將加速我們的增長和盈利能力。

And we expect the full year tax rate to be up a couple points following several beneficial discrete events in 2018.

我們預計，在 2018 年發生幾起有益的離散事件後，全年稅率將上升幾個百分點。

Five years ago, we set out to transform Intel from a PC-centric company to a data-centric company.

五年前，我們著手將英特爾從一家以 PC 為中心的公司轉變為一家以數據為中心的公司。

Today, our strategy, our products and our people are delivering on that ambition with strong growth, record results and the largest TAM opportunity in the company's history.

今天，我們的戰略、我們的產品和我們的員工正在以強勁的增長、創紀錄的業績和公司歷史上最大的 TAM 機會實現這一雄心壯志。

And we're just getting started.

我們才剛剛開始。

With that, let me turn it back over to Mark and we'll get to your questions.

有了這個，讓我把它交給馬克，我們會回答你的問題。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

All right.

好的。

Thank you, Bob.

謝謝你，鮑勃。

Moving on now to the Q&A.

現在繼續進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Operator, please go ahead and introduce our first questioner.

（操作員說明）操作員，請繼續介紹我們的第一個提問者。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Harlan Sur from JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

On the competitive front, with your nearest competitor rolling out a second generation, 7-nanometer server product next year, I guess first question is, is the Intel team still on track to roll out its second-generation Xeon family, the Cascade Lake at the end of this year?

在競爭方面，您最接近的競爭對手明年將推出第二代 7 納米服務器產品，我想第一個問題是，英特爾團隊是否仍在按計劃推出其第二代至強系列 Cascade Lake今年年底？

And if you could just help us understand, what are some of the performance and portfolio differentiators that are going to help the team maintain relatively strong share in the server segment, 2019 and beyond?

如果您能幫助我們了解，哪些性能和產品組合差異化因素將幫助團隊在 2019 年及以後的服務器領域保持相對強勁的份額？

Yes.

是的。

Harlan, this is Murthy.

哈蘭，這是穆爾蒂。

Let me take that one.

讓我拿那個。

Yes, you're correct.

是的，你是對的。

We still intend to be making first shipments of Cascade Lake by Q4.

我們仍打算在第四季度前完成 Cascade Lake 的首批出貨。

And we're really excited with the stockpile of new features we have lined up for that platform, primarily the support of our Optane persistent memory that we'll launch in conjunction with Cascade Lake as we enter early 2019, we believe that will be a significant uplift in performance.

我們對該平台的新功能儲備感到非常興奮，主要是對我們將在 2019 年初與 Cascade Lake 一起推出的 Optane 持久內存的支持，我們相信這將是一個業績顯著提升。

We will also have a dedicated instruction set extensions to support artificial intelligence workloads.

我們還將有專門的指令集擴展來支持人工智能工作負載。

And we'll have continued generation over generation CPU improvements.

我們將繼續一代一代地改進 CPU。

So all in all, we think that Cascade Lake represents a power-packed addition to the data center road map.

總而言之，我們認為 Cascade Lake 代表了數據中心路線圖的強大補充。

And of course, we have further excitement towards the end of next year as we launch our Cooper Lake platform as well.

當然，明年年底我們還會推出我們的 Cooper Lake 平台，這讓我們更加興奮。

So we're really excited about the lineup we have in our DCG road map for next year and indeed, as you said, for the end of this quarter.

因此，我們對明年 DCG 路線圖中的陣容感到非常興奮，事實上，正如你所說，在本季度末。

Our next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Bob, you've done a great job in managing OpEx since coming on board.

Bob，自從加入公司以來，您在管理 OpEx 方面做得很好。

You talked about further leverage into 2019.

您談到了 2019 年的進一步槓桿作用。

Can you remind us which areas of the business you're deemphasizing from a spending perspective?

您能否提醒我們從支出的角度來看您不重視哪些業務領域？

And how should we think about the balance between R&D and SG&A in 2019 and beyond?

我們應該如何思考 2019 年及以後的研發和 SG&A 之間的平衡？

Yes.

是的。

First, I think the progress we made has been a team sport.

首先，我認為我們取得的進步是一項團隊運動。

And as I indicated in the prepared remarks, we're down 700 basis points from 2015.

正如我在準備好的評論中指出的那樣，我們比 2015 年下降了 700 個基點。

And during that time frame, it's not been at the expense of R&D, it's -- on the contrary, R&D has been -- has grown $1.4 billion during that time frame.

在那段時間裡，它並沒有以研發為代價，而是——相反，研發一直——在這段時間內增長了 14 億美元。

So really, the underlying dynamics is we've made trade-offs to invest in higher growth segments of the business.

所以實際上，潛在的動力是我們已經做出權衡以投資於業務的更高增長部分。

That growth is, in fact, accelerating.

事實上，這種增長正在加速。

And from that accelerating growth, we've been extremely disciplined on getting leverage on our SG&A, and we've exited some, what I'd characterize, noncore businesses.

從這種加速增長中，我們非常嚴格地利用我們的 SG&A，並且我們已經退出了一些我所描述的非核心業務。

During the course of this year, we exited Wind River.

在這一年中，我們退出了風河。

We reduced our investments in wearables, products.

我們減少了對可穿戴設備和產品的投資。

And we exited these Saffron business as well.

我們也退出了這些藏紅花業務。

So as we go forward, we're going to continue to increase R&D.

因此，隨著我們前進，我們將繼續增加研發。

But -- and we're going to increase it in the areas that we think can generate differentiated growth for us.

但是 - 我們將在我們認為可以為我們帶來差異化增長的領域增加它。

And from that growth, we expect to continue to get leverage as we go into -- as we enter 2019.

從這種增長中，我們預計隨著我們進入 2019 年，我們將繼續獲得影響力。

Our next question comes from the line of John Pitzer from Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 John Pitzer。

Well, I wonder if you can just comment a little bit on when do you think the supply constraints will be over relative to your sort of capacity addition plans.

好吧，我想知道您是否可以評論一下您認為相對於您的產能增加計劃而言，供應限制何時會結束。

And if I caught it right, it sounds like in the calendar fourth quarter, you're choosing to kind of shortchange the IoT Group.

如果我沒聽錯的話，聽起來就像在日曆第四季度一樣，您正在選擇對物聯網集團進行某種程度的改變。

Does that mean that you're already kind of caught up in the PC market?

這是否意味著您已經在某種程度上趕上了 PC 市場？

Or how should we be thinking about that dynamic?

或者我們應該如何考慮這種動態？

First, John, as we mentioned earlier, the -- we were caught off guard a little bit this year by explosive growth well ahead of what our expectations were back in the beginning of the year.

首先，約翰，正如我們之前提到的，今年的爆炸性增長遠遠超出了我們在年初的預期，我們有點措手不及。

And that growth came from all different segments in the business.

這種增長來自業務的所有不同領域。

It put us in the unfortunate situation of constraining some of the demand signals that we were seeing from the market and our customer base.

它使我們處於限制我們從市場和客戶群中看到的一些需求信號的不幸境地。

Our teams have done -- in conjunction with our customers, our teams have done an outstanding job in the third quarter and we project into the fourth quarter.

我們的團隊已經做到了——與我們的客戶一起，我們的團隊在第三季度做得非常出色，我們預計到第四季度。

And that has enabled us to increase our revenue outlook for the year by $1.7 billion.

這使我們能夠將今年的收入預期提高 17 億美元。

But I think as we go into the fourth quarter, given the demand signals we continue to see across the business, we, in fact, will be constraining growth.

但我認為，隨著我們進入第四季度，鑑於我們繼續在整個業務中看到的需求信號，事實上，我們將限制增長。

Our focus has been prioritizing in conjunction with our customers, Xeon and Core processors.

我們的重點一直是與我們的客戶、至強和酷睿處理器一起優先考慮。

And therefore, by definition, the lower end of PC and the IoT business is being constrained.

因此，根據定義，PC 和物聯網業務的低端業務受到限制。

So we are in a constrained scenario into the fourth quarter, both at low end PC and in IoT.

因此，在低端 PC 和物聯網領域，我們都處於第四季度的受限情景中。

As we go into next year and kind of the timing, we've put a lot of capital to work this year.

隨著我們進入明年和某種時機，我們今年投入了大量資金。

It's a record year for CapEx for us at $15.5 billion.

對我們來說，今年的資本支出達到創紀錄的 155 億美元。

It's a $1.5 billion higher than what we expected entering the year.

這比我們今年的預期高出 15 億美元。

And we have kind of taken some of our 10-nanometer equipment tools and began to blow that back to meet the increased demand for 14.

我們已經採用了一些 10 納米設備工具，並開始將其反擊以滿足對 14 納米設備不斷增長的需求。

So we're working extremely hard to get back on track in 2019.

因此，我們正在非常努力地在 2019 年重回正軌。

But at this stage of the game, given the demand signals we've seen in the fourth quarter, we're going to be constrained a little bit.

但在遊戲的這個階段，鑑於我們在第四季度看到的需求信號，我們將受到一點限制。

And we're trying to prioritize as best as we can with our customers.

我們正在努力盡可能地優先考慮我們的客戶。

Our next question comes from the line of Ambrish Srivastava from Bank of Montreal.

我們的下一個問題來自蒙特利爾銀行的 Ambrish Srivastava。

But one area you did not touch on was CapEx.

但是你沒有提到的一個領域是資本支出。

And I'm asking if you could provide us some directional input on that on what we should expect for CapEx, specifically in light of the Micron call option and implications that has for your spend on the memory side.

我在問您是否可以就我們對資本支出的預期向我們提供一些方向性的意見，特別是考慮到美光看漲期權以及對您在內存方面的支出的影響。

Yes.

是的。

I think on CapEx at the macro level as we think into '19, we expect logic CapEx to likely be a little higher, and memory CapEx, despite building self-sufficiency on Optane, to be a little bit lower.

我認為在宏觀層面上的資本支出，正如我們對 19 年的看法一樣，我們預計邏輯資本支出可能會更高一些，而內存資本支出（儘管在 Optane 上建立了自給自足）會更低一些。

So at the macro level, those are the dynamics.

所以在宏觀層面，這些就是動態。

The -- in terms of how it plays out on overall levels, it's still a work in process.

- 就它在整體層面上的表現而言，它仍然是一項正在進行的工作。

And I'd characterize it, Ambrish, this way.

我會這樣描述它，Ambrish。

First, it's going to be a function of growth.

首先，它將成為增長的函數。

As we get clear around what growth looks like in 2019 for 14-nanometer, that will impact what the overall CapEx level is.

當我們清楚 2019 年 14 納米的增長情況時，這將影響整體資本支出水平。

Secondly, if we -- we've made some good progress on 10-nanometer yields over the course of the last 6 months.

其次，如果我們在過去 6 個月的過程中在 10 納米產量方面取得了一些良好進展。

And as we progress through in the -- through the fourth quarter into 2019, if we're further ahead on 10-nanometer yields, that will influence the amount of CapEx next year.

隨著我們在 2019 年第四季度取得進展，如果我們在 10 納米產量方面進一步領先，那將影響明年的資本支出金額。

Third, our progress on 7-nanometer, how well we progress in 7-nanometer is also -- will influence how we think about CapEx.

第三，我們在 7 納米方面的進展，我們在 7 納米方面的進展情況也將影響我們對資本支出的看法。

And last but not least, as it relates to memory, it's more the customer quals and adoption of our leading edge, 3D NAND 96-layer product as we continue to make progress on developing that.

最後但並非最不重要的一點是，由於它與內存有關，更多的是客戶資格和我們領先的 3D NAND 96 層產品的採用，因為我們繼續在開發該產品方面取得進展。

We may deploy that capital, and that pays for itself very quickly.

我們可能會部署這些資金，而這很快就會收回成本。

So as we sit here today, CapEx -- I expect logic to be up, memory to be down.

因此，當我們今天坐在這裡時，資本支出——我預計邏輯會上升，內存會下降。

And as we look at those 4 things, all of which I'd characterize as being good things if we made progress on all 4 of those, that will influence the rate of CapEx spend next year.

當我們審視這四件事時，如果我們在所有這四件事上取得進展，我認為所有這些都是好事，這將影響明年的資本支出支出率。

So we'll try to provide you a little more analytical color versus that qualitative cover in January.

因此，與 1 月份的定性封面相比，我們將嘗試為您提供更多分析色彩。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Moore from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬摩爾。

Wanted to get -- just give us a little more color on the PC numbers in the quarter.

想要得到——只要給我們在本季度的 PC 數字上多一點顏色。

How much were you constrained by the shortages that you saw?

你看到的短缺在多大程度上受到了限制？

And I guess, it looks like you grew a little bit more than seasonal on a sequential basis.

而且我想，看起來你的增長比季節性的要多一點。

And how much of the ASP lift that you saw do you think was a function of those shortages?

您認為 ASP 提升有多少是這些短缺的結果？

And then just any color on could those shortages spread higher into this product stack over the course of Q4?

然後，這些短缺是否會在第四季度進一步擴散到該產品堆棧中？

Yes, Joe.

是的，喬。

I think as you saw from the IDC and Gartner folks, growth for PC TAM in the quarter, probably around 1%.

我認為正如您從 IDC 和 Gartner 人員那裡看到的那樣，本季度 PC TAM 的增長可能在 1% 左右。

Our guess is it was probably a little bit stronger than that, 1% to 2% growth.

我們的猜測是它可能比這要強一點，1% 到 2% 的增長。

And within that, we delivered 6% unit growth.

其中，我們實現了 6% 的單位增長。

So real strong unit growth and again, good ASP momentum.

所以真正強勁的單位增長和良好的平均售價勢頭。

I would say in Q3, largely a function of customer collaboration in our fabs.

我想說的是在第三季度，很大程度上是我們晶圓廠的客戶協作功能。

I don't think we're too terribly constrained on the PC side to be honest with you.

老實說，我認為我們在 PC 方面並沒有受到太大的限制。

I think as we go into Q4 is where I think the constraints are impacting us a little bit more.

我認為當我們進入第四季度時，我認為限制對我們的影響更大。

So I don't think ASPs or supply constraints really -- we did not benefit from higher ASPs, nor were we constrained in terms of unit growth in the quarter.

所以我不認為 ASP 或供應限制真的 - 我們沒有從更高的 ASP 中受益，我們也沒有在本季度的單位增長方面受到限制。

It's more a fourth quarter thing where demand signals remained relatively strong.

這更像是第四季度的需求信號仍然相對強勁。

And as you saw from our guide, while it's good year-on-year growth, it's relatively flat on -- overall on Q3 to Q4.

正如您從我們的指南中看到的那樣，雖然同比增長良好，但在第三季度至第四季度總體上相對持平。

And PCs -- low end of PCs and IoT will be impacted as we see the demand signals at this stage of the game.

個人電腦——低端個人電腦和物聯網將受到影響，因為我們在遊戲的這個階段看到了需求信號。

Our next question comes from the line of Weston Twigg from KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Weston Twigg。

I just wanted to ask a little bit.

我只是想問一點。

I get the demand's really good here in the back half of 2019, but with the trade war discussions, softening demand in China, some cycle risk indicators, are you seeing anything or talking to customers that would indicate that there would be any first half 2019 risk to demand?

我認為 2019 年下半年的需求非常好，但隨著貿易戰的討論、中國需求疲軟、一些週期風險指標，您是否看到或與客戶交談表明 2019 年上半年會有任何跡象需求風險？

Yes.

是的。

It's a great question.

這是一個很好的問題。

I think at the aggregate level, there's what I'd maybe characterize as some decent tailwinds as we go -- as we exit the year and then go into '19 but also some headwinds.

我認為在總體層面上，隨著我們的發展，我可能會將其描述為一些不錯的順風——當我們退出這一年，然後進入 19 年時，還有一些逆風。

The tailwinds, we've -- as you know, we've been talking about an expanded TAM where we play a bigger and bigger role in the increased needs for data.

順風，我們已經 - 如您所知，我們一直在談論擴展的 TAM，我們在增加的數據需求中發揮越來越大的作用。

And that larger TAM and the momentum we're building across all of our products is a pretty good tailwind as we look at just demand for data, whether it's with consumers or with businesses going into the new year.

更大的 TAM 和我們在所有產品上建立的勢頭是一個很好的順風，因為我們只關注對數據的需求，無論是消費者還是企業進入新的一年。

That's a tailwind.

那是順風。

Secondly, Murthy mentioned a few of the products that we have coming in down the pipe in fourth quarter and going in the next year.

其次，Murthy 提到了我們在第四季度即將推出並在明年推出的一些產品。

And those products, we believe, will deliver more and more performance for our clients, which I'd characterize as a tailwind.

我們相信，這些產品將為我們的客戶提供越來越多的性能，我將其描述為順風。

And then third in somewhat of a perverse way, as you know, when PC was 70% of the business and when enterprise was 50-plus percent of the data center business and those were declining, it was the headwind for the company's growth.

然後以某種反常的方式排在第三位，如您所知，當 PC 佔業務的 70% 時，當企業佔數據中心業務的 50% 以上時，這些業務正在下降，這是公司增長的逆風。

But those more recently have been stable.

但最近的那些一直很穩定。

So whether it's our expanded TAM, our new products or the mix of our business, we have some tailwinds as we think about 2019.

因此，無論是我們擴展的 TAM、我們的新產品還是我們的業務組合，我們在考慮 2019 年時都會遇到一些順風。

At the same time, to your point, there's some headwinds.

同時，就您而言，也存在一些不利因素。

And the headwinds, first, this has been a fantastic year for us and I think for the industry, and that just makes comps a little bit tougher as we go into next year.

不利因素，首先，這對我們來說是美妙的一年，我認為對於這個行業來說，這只會讓我們進入明年的比賽變得更加艱難。

Second, we have growing competition.

其次，我們的競爭越來越激烈。

And growing competition can be a headwind for us.

日益激烈的競爭對我們來說可能是一個逆風。

And our expectations are we'll deal with that pretty effectively.

我們的期望是我們會非常有效地處理這個問題。

And third, just global trade.

第三，只是全球貿易。

In particular, as you know, China's a big market for us.

特別是，如您所知，中國對我們來說是一個大市場。

We got some important customers there, and it's important -- it's an important part of our global supply chain.

我們在那裡有一些重要的客戶，這很重要——這是我們全球供應鏈的重要組成部分。

So as that -- as this most recent round of tariffs kind of play out and we're doing a lot of work with our customers to ensure that the global supply chain can be adjusted and adapted to deal with any tariffs that come down the way, but it's -- I think it's going to be a wait-and-see as we go into 2019.

因此，隨著最近一輪關稅的實施，我們正在與客戶進行大量工作，以確保全球供應鏈能夠進行調整和調整，以應對隨之而來的任何關稅，但它 - 我認為隨著我們進入 2019 年，這將是一個觀望。

At this stage of the game, we don't see any impact on 2018's results.

在遊戲的這個階段，我們沒有看到對 2018 年的結果有任何影響。

And in 2019, we have what I'd consider a world-class supply chain team that can manage and weather the dynamics of changes in movements of goods better than anybody else in the industry.

在 2019 年，我們擁有我認為的世界級供應鏈團隊，可以比業內其他任何人更好地管理和應對貨物流動變化的動態。

So I think that would be a competitive advantage for us as we go into next year.

所以我認為這將是我們進入明年的競爭優勢。

Our next question comes from the line of Tim Arcuri from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Tim Arcuri。

I wanted to ask on the DCG.

我想問問DCG。

You're not specifically guiding it next year, but it sounds like you're still pretty bullish.

明年你並沒有專門指導它，但聽起來你仍然很看好。

And there's a lot of investors, I think, worried about a hyperscale CapEx slow down next year.

我認為，有很多投資者擔心明年超大規模資本支出會放緩。

So I guess, is it that you're bullish on CapEx next year?

所以我想，你是否看好明年的資本支出？

Or is it kind of more a commentary on product cycle, maybe Xeon Scalable beginning to catalyze kind of a server upgrade cycle?

或者它更像是對產品週期的評論，也許 Xeon Scalable 開始催化某種服務器升級週期？

Well, I think, first, we've -- in terms of growth for next year in the aggregate, we haven't really provided any quantitative color, more qualitative cover in terms of the dynamics that we see.

好吧，我認為，首先，就明年的總體增長而言，我們並沒有真正提供任何定量的顏色，就我們所看到的動態而言，我們沒有提供更多定性的覆蓋。

That being said, our DCG growth this year is projected to be north of 20%, real strong for the first 3 quarters of the year.

話雖如此，我們今年的 DCG 增長預計將超過 20%，今年前 3 個季度非常強勁。

So fourth quarter, we expect really solid demand.

所以第四季度，我們預計需求非常強勁。

But it's on a tough -- much tougher comp because fourth quarter last year was a great quarter for the DCG business.

但這是一個艱難的 - 更加艱難的競爭，因為去年第四季度對於 DCG 業務來說是一個很好的季度。

As we go into next year, we got -- Murthy highlighted, we've got a good product road map of expanded features for Cascade Lake as we exit this year, Cooper Lake, middle of next year.

當我們進入明年時，我們得到了——Murthy 強調說，當我們在明年年中退出庫珀湖時，我們已經為 Cascade Lake 的擴展功能製定了一個很好的產品路線圖。

And we have a much more diverse business now with -- obviously, cloud has been a big accelerant for us.

而且我們現在擁有更加多樣化的業務 - 顯然，雲對我們來說是一個很大的促進因素。

I don't expect that it will grow at 50% forever.

我不認為它會永遠增長50%。

50% was our cloud growth in the quarter.

50% 是我們本季度的雲增長。

But at the same time, our comms and networking business growth has been accelerating quite a bit, and the stability we've seen in enterprise and government has really helped.

但與此同時，我們的通信和網絡業務增長已經相當快，我們在企業和政府中看到的穩定性確實有所幫助。

So I think next year, we have a much more diverse business.

所以我認為明年，我們的業務將更加多樣化。

We got a good product lineup and we'll provide a little more color as we get into January.

我們有一個很好的產品陣容，我們將在 1 月份提供更多顏色。

But outstanding year, this year, for data center, both top line and bottom line.

但今年對於數據中心來說，無論是頂線還是底線都是出色的一年。

Our next question comes from the line of Ross Seymore from Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Ross Seymore。

Bob, I want to ask on the gross margins side.

鮑勃，我想問一下毛利率方面的問題。

First, thank you for the color you gave on 2019.

首先，感謝您在 2019 年提供的顏色。

But if I back it up a step, what's the headwinds in the fourth quarter sequentially?

但是，如果我往後退一步，那麼第四季度的逆風是什麼？

And then any big picture moving parts, 10-nanometer yields, mix, what have you that gives you the confidence that you could still stay in the upper half of that 55% to 65% range for 2019?

然後任何大的移動部件，10 納米產量，混合，你有什麼讓你有信心在 2019 年仍然保持在 55% 到 65% 範圍的上半部分？

Yes, yes, great question.

是的，是的，好問題。

First, a little color on Q3, and then I'll walk from Q3 to Q4 dynamics.

首先，對 Q3 進行一點顏色，然後我將從 Q3 走到 Q4 的動態。

Yes, it's as the -- we highlighted in the materials, 60% -- almost 66% gross margin in the quarter is high as it's been for a very long time.

是的，正如我們在材料中強調的那樣，60% - 本季度近 66% 的毛利率很高，這是很長一段時間以來的最高水平。

And it was a function of a few things: One, continued volume leverage with full factories; two, ASPs, both on a client side and on the data center side.

它是由幾件事情決定的：一是完整工廠的持續銷量槓桿；二，ASP，在客戶端和數據中心端。

And those were partially offset by platform cost going up and a change in mix, a growth of our modem and memory business.

這些被平台成本上升和組合變化、我們的調製解調器和內存業務的增長部分抵消。

So those are the 4 dynamics that played out during the course of the quarter.

因此，這些是本季度期間出現的 4 種動態。

I would say 66% was artificially high, and I'd say that for a couple of reasons.

我會說 66% 是人為的高，我會這麼說有幾個原因。

One, we had in our -- in the NSG business, we earned a government incentive that was from scaling our fabs outside the U.S. So that incentive was worth about $110 million.

第一，我們在 NSG 業務中獲得了政府激勵，該激勵來自於在美國以外擴大我們的晶圓廠，因此該激勵價值約 1.1 億美元。

So a bit of a one-timer that we don't expect to repeat itself.

所以有點一次性，我們不希望重演。

Secondly, sell-through of product, either -- on the CPU side, we're working with our customers and shaping demand to where we had inventory.

其次，產品的銷售——在 CPU 方面，我們正在與客戶合作，並將需求塑造到我們有庫存的地方。

We had good sell-through for some inventory that was previously partially reserved.

對於之前部分保留的一些庫存，我們的銷售情況良好。

And then second, on our modem growth, our explosive modem growth in the quarter.

其次，關於我們的調製解調器增長，我們在本季度的爆炸性調製解調器增長。

We PRQ'd that product in the third quarter.

我們在第三季度對該產品進行了 PRQ。

So we got the benefit of previously fully reserved inventory.

因此，我們獲得了以前完全保留的庫存的好處。

So what all that means when you adjust for kind of one-timers, the 66% is closer to 64% in terms of normalized basis going into the fourth quarter.

那麼，當你調整一種一次性產品時，這一切意味著什麼，就進入第四季度的標準化基礎而言，66% 接近 64%。

Our guide in the fourth quarter, to your question, is 62%.

對於您的問題，我們在第四季度的指導是 62%。

So there's really 3 dynamics that we see playing out in the fourth quarter.

所以我們在第四節看到了真正的 3 個動態。

One, we expect ASPs to be better.

一，我們預計 ASP 會更好。

And that's going to be a little bit of a function of the prioritization of Xeon and Core processors, which are higher ASP mix.

這將是 Xeon 和 Core 處理器優先級的一個功能，它們是更高的 ASP 組合。

So we expect that to benefit us.

因此，我們希望這對我們有利。

But at the same time, there's 3 other things that as we go into the fourth quarter that I'd characterized as really good things but will have an impact on our gross margin.

但與此同時，當我們進入第四季度時，還有其他三件事我認為是非常好的事情，但會對我們的毛利率產生影響。

One is ramping 10-nanometer.

一種是加速 10 納米。

We're making good progress on 10-nanometer.

我們在 10 納米方面取得了良好進展。

Yields are improving, and that's giving us the confidence to, in effect, turn on more equipment and incur the depreciation cost associated with that.

產量正在提高，這讓我們有信心實際上打開更多設備並承擔與之相關的折舊成本。

So that will impact our Q3 to Q4 gross margins.

因此，這將影響我們第三季度至第四季度的毛利率。

And it's a function of the progress we're making on 10-nanometer.

這是我們在 10 納米技術上取得的進展的一個函數。

Second, memory continues to grow, a good 21% growth in the third quarter.

其次，內存繼續增長，第三季度增長了21%。

We expect it to continue to grow in the fourth quarter.

我們預計第四季度將繼續增長。

And that has -- our NAND business has been profitable during the course of the year but not at the gross margins of our logic business.

這已經 - 我們的 NAND 業務在這一年中一直盈利，但沒有達到我們邏輯業務的毛利率。

And then third, we're experiencing explosive growth on modem with some really good share gains.

第三，我們正在經歷調製解調器的爆炸式增長，並獲得了一些非常好的份額增長。

And the modem product is also -- the combination of memory and modem are accretive to our year-on-year earnings growth but dilutive to our gross margins.

調製解調器產品也是——內存和調製解調器的結合增加了我們的同比收入增長，但稀釋了我們的毛利率。

So that's the kind of Q3 adjusted gross margin going into Q4 will likely cost us roughly a couple points.

因此，進入第四季度的第三季度調整後毛利率可能會讓我們損失大約幾個百分點。

As we then step back and think about 2019, those -- we see those same dynamics playing out, primarily 14-nanometer volume.

當我們回過頭來想想 2019 年時，那些——我們看到同樣的動態正在上演，主要是 14 納米的體積。

So continued good yield, unit cost performance on 14-nanometer.

因此在 14 納米上繼續保持良好的良率、單位成本性能。

We don't expect ASPs to be dramatically better in an increasingly competitive environment, but we don't expect them to be much worse.

我們預計 ASP 在競爭日益激烈的環境中不會顯著提高，但我們預計它們不會變得更糟。

10-nanometer costs will ramp.

10 納米的成本將會上升。

And we do expect to continue to grow memory and modem.

我們確實希望繼續增長內存和調製解調器。

It'll be accretive to earnings but a little dilutive to gross margin.

它會增加收益，但會稍微稀釋毛利率。

So again, a fairly long-winded walk from what drove Q3.

再說一次，從第三季度的推動者出發，走了一段相當長的路程。

The goodness operationally of what will happen to Q4 gross margins has been our comfort that 2019 will be a modest degradation.

第四季度毛利率在運營上的優勢讓我們感到欣慰的是，2019 年將出現適度下降。

But when coupled with the leverage on our operating expense, our operating margins will be kind of roughly flat in the 34% range.

但是，再加上我們對運營費用的槓桿作用，我們的運營利潤率將大致持平在 34% 的範圍內。

And operator, I think we've got time for 2 more questions.

接線員，我想我們還有時間再回答 2 個問題。

Certainly.

當然。

Our next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

我們的下一個問題來自美銀美林的 Vivek Arya。

Bob, just one more on 10-nanometer.

Bob，在 10 納米上只有一個。

You mentioned it's on track.

你提到它正在走上正軌。

Is there a way to kind of quantify progress on 10-nanometer over the last 3 months?

有沒有辦法量化過去 3 個月內 10 納米的進展？

And if you were to kind of go back to a similar time when you were getting ready to make the jump to 14-nanometer, are the 10-nanometer yields and cost behaving in a similar way?

如果你要回到你準備跳躍到 14 納米的類似時間，那麼 10 納米的產量和成本是否以類似的方式表現？

Just any color around progress would be helpful.

只是進度周圍的任何顏色都會有所幫助。

Vivek, let me take that.

維維克，讓我接受。

This is Murphy.

這是墨菲。

First of all, as Bob said in his opening remarks, the progress we've made in the quarter is very much in line with our expectations.

首先，正如鮑勃在開幕詞中所說，我們在本季度取得的進展非常符合我們的預期。

While we can't give any specific numbers, I do believe that the yields as we speak now are tracking roughly in line with what we experienced in 14-nanometer.

雖然我們不能給出任何具體數字，但我相信我們現在所說的產量大致與我們在 14 納米中的經歷一致。

So we're still very much reinforcing and reaffirming our previous guidance that we believe that we'll have 10-nanometer shipping by holiday of 2019.

因此，我們仍然非常加強和重申我們之前的指導，我們相信我們將在 2019 年假期前實現 10 納米的出貨。

And if anything, I feel more confident about that at this call than I did in the call a quarter ago.

如果有的話，我在這次電話會議上比四分之一前的電話會議更有信心。

So we're making good progress, and I think we're making the quarter-on-quarter progress that's consistent with prior generations having reset the progress curve.

所以我們取得了良好的進展，我認為我們正在取得與前幾代人重置進度曲線的季度環比進展。

Our final question comes from the line of Romit Shah from Nomura Instinet.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Nomura Instinet 的 Romit Shah。

Bob, you've -- you said that progress on 7-nanometer will also be a factor driving CapEx next year.

Bob，你已經 - 你說過 7 納米的進展也將成為推動明年資本支出的一個因素。

And I was hoping you could maybe talk about that a little bit more.

我希望你能多談一點。

When you talk about progress, is that a statement about yields meaning if 7-nanometer yields are improving, you could potentially deploy more CapEx to ramp that process note a little earlier?

當您談論進展時，關於產量的聲明是否意味著如果 7 納米產量正在提高，您可能會部署更多的資本支出以提早一點提高該工藝說明？

Well, it's -- we haven't really given a time line for 7, so to say it's ramping earlier would be a little bit of a stretch.

嗯，它是 - 我們還沒有真正給出 7 的時間表，所以說它更早地加速會有點牽強。

But this is -- we've been investing in EUV for a while, and we've obviously been investing in 7-nanometer.

但這是 - 我們已經投資 EUV 一段時間了，我們顯然一直在投資 7 納米。

And when we step back and think about CapEx for next year, again, it's a function of growth on 14.

當我們退後一步考慮明年的資本支出時，再次，它是 14 增長的函數。

It's a function of the rate in which we scale 10, and it's a function of investments we'd make to begin to prove out 7 in a more meaningful way.

它是我們縮放 10 的比率的函數，也是我們為開始以更有意義的方式證明 7 所做的投資的函數。

So those are just the dynamics that we're looking at and thinking about as we get closer to giving you a more definitive guide for CapEx in '19.

因此，這些只是我們正在關注和思考的動態，因為我們越來越接近為您提供更明確的 19 年資本支出指南。

All right.

好的。

Thank you all for joining us today.

感謝大家今天加入我們。

Operator, please go ahead and wrap up the call.

接線員，請繼續結束通話。

Certainly.

當然。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。

This does conclude the program.

這確實結束了程序。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。

Good day.

再會。