英特爾 (INTC) 2019 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Third Quarter 2019 Intel Corporation Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's program is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，感謝各位的耐心等待，歡迎參加英特爾公司2019年第三季財報電話會議。（操作說明）提醒各位，今天的節目正在錄製中。

And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Trey Campbell, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在，我謹向大家介紹今天節目的主持人，投資者關係主管特雷·坎貝爾。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, operator, and welcome, everyone, to Intel's third quarter earnings conference call.

謝謝接線員，歡迎各位參加英特爾第三季財報電話會議。

By now, you should have received a copy of our earnings release and the earnings presentation. If you've not received both documents, they're available on our investor website, intc.com. The earnings presentation is also available in the webcast window for those joining us online.

現在，您應該已經收到我們的獲利報告和獲利簡報了。如果您尚未收到這兩份文件，它們可以在我們的投資者網站 intc.com 上找到。在線上觀看的朋友也可以透過網路直播視窗觀看業績報告。

I'm joined today by our CEO, Bob Swan; and our CFO, George Davis. In a moment, we'll hear brief remarks from both of them, followed by Q&A.

今天與我一同出席的有我們的執行長鮑勃·斯旺和財務長喬治·戴維斯。稍後我們將聽到他們兩人的簡短講話，然後是問答環節。

Before we begin, let me remind everyone, today's discussion contains forward-looking statements based on the environment as we currently see it and, as such, does include risks and uncertainties. Please refer to our press release for more information on the specific risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially.

在開始之前，我想提醒大家，今天的討論包含基於我們目前所見環境的前瞻性陳述，因此確實存在風險和不確定性。有關可能導致實際結果與預期結果存在重大差異的具體風險因素的更多信息，請參閱我們的新聞稿。

A brief reminder that, this quarter, we have provided both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. Today, we will be speaking to the non-GAAP financial measures when describing our consolidated results. The earnings presentation and earnings release available on intc.com include the full GAAP and non-GAAP reconciliations.

簡單提醒一下，本季我們同時提供了GAAP和非GAAP財務指標。今天，我們將結合非GAAP財務指標來介紹我們的合併績效。intc.com 上提供的收益簡報和收益發布包括完整的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 調整表。

With that, let me hand it over to Bob.

那麼，就讓我把麥克風交給鮑伯吧。

Thanks, Trey. Q3 2019 was the best quarter in our company's history. We generated $19.2 billion in revenue and $1.42 in non-GAAP EPS, exceeding our guidance by $1.2 billion and $0.18, respectively. We achieved record revenue both overall and in our data-centric businesses while making continued progress on our strategic priorities. Simply put, our ambitions have never been greater. We are growing share in a large and expanding $300 billion market opportunity fueled by the exponential growth of data, which is reshaping computing.

謝謝你，特雷。2019年第三季是我們公司史上業績最好的一個季度。我們實現了 192 億美元的收入和 1.42 美元的非 GAAP 每股收益，分別比我們的預期高出 12 億美元和 0.18 美元。我們在整體收入和以數據為中心的業務方面都取得了創紀錄的收入，同時在策略重點方面也取得了持續進展。簡而言之，我們的雄心壯志從未如此遠大。我們正在一個規模龐大且不斷擴大的 3000 億美元市場機會中佔據越來越大的份額，而這一機會的驅動力是數據的指數級增長，這正在重塑計算行業。

I want to start with a recap of our May Analyst Day and our 3 priorities: Accelerating growth, improving execution and deploying capital for attractive returns. First, growth. It starts with a core belief. We are at a key inflection point with the exponential growth of data creating massive demand for semiconductors. Cloud workloads are diversifying. Networks are transforming. And more computing performance is moving to the edge.

首先，我想回顧一下我們五月的分析師日活動以及我們的三個優先事項：加速成長、提高執行力以及部署資本以獲得可觀的回報。首先是成長。一切始於一個核心信念。我們正處於一個關鍵的轉折點，數據的指數級增長創造了對半導體的巨大需求。雲端工作負載正在多樣化。網路正在轉型。越來越多的運算效能正在向邊緣轉移。

We've been on a multiyear journey to reposition the company's portfolio to take advantage of this industry catalyst. Today, we have the product and technology leadership that uniquely positions us to capitalize on these trends and will invest in the IP required to help our customers win the inflections of the future.

我們歷經多年努力，重新調整公司的產品組合，以充分利用此產業催化劑。如今，我們在產品和技術方面擁有領先優勢，這使我們能夠獨樹一幟地利用這些趨勢，並將投資於必要的智慧財產權，以幫助我們的客戶贏得未來的變革。

The opportunity is massive. As we told you in May, we expect to generate $85 billion in revenue and $6 in EPS in 3 to 4 years. But that doesn't happen just by saying it. Achieving this goal means delivering on our operational and financial priorities every 90 days.

機會巨大。正如我們在五月告訴大家的那樣，我們預計在未來三到四年內實現 850 億美元的收入和 6 美元的每股收益。但光說不通是做不到的。要實現這一目標，就意味著每 90 天都要完成我們的營運和財務重點工作。

Growth starts with our Core business where our workload-optimized platforms are winning in a highly competitive marketplace. It's now been 9 quarters since the first Xeon Scalable processor launched, and we're proud to have delivered over 23 million units as customers rely on Xeon to power their data-centric workloads.

成長始於我們的核心業務，我們針對工作負載優化的平台在競爭激烈的市場中脫穎而出。自首款 Xeon 可擴展處理器發布以來已經過去了 9 個季度，我們很自豪地宣布，我們已經交付了超過 2300 萬台處理器，因為客戶依靠 Xeon 來驅動他們以數據為中心的工作負載。

In the third quarter, leading cloud customers ramped our second-generation Xeon Scalable processors with AWS, Google and Alibaba deploying instances based on Cascade Lake. Customers including BP and TU Darmstadt selected our highest-performance Xeon Scalable platform, the 9200 series, for their most demanding workloads. One key reason customers are choosing Xeon Scalable is the platform's built-in workload acceleration for AI. With the combination of Intel Deep Learning Boost and AVX-512 technologies, we're seeing advantages of up to 9x in AI inference versus competitor CPUs.

第三季度，領先的雲端客戶加大了對第二代 Xeon 可擴展處理器的投入使用，AWS、谷歌和阿里巴巴都部署了基於 Cascade Lake 的實例。包括 BP 和達姆施塔特工業大學在內的客戶為他們最苛刻的工作負載選擇了我們性能最高的 Xeon 可擴展平台 9200 系列。客戶選擇 Xeon Scalable 的一個關鍵原因是該平台內建了針對 AI 的工作負載加速功能。結合英特爾深度學習加速技術和 AVX-512 技術，我們在 AI 推理方面比競爭對手的 CPU 獲得了高達 9 倍的優勢。

We also see cloud and enterprise momentum building for our break-through memory technology, Intel Optane. This quarter, we announced a strategic collaboration with Oracle. Oracle is incorporating the high-performance capabilities of Intel Optane DC persistent memory into its next-generation Exadata platform, which powers high-performance database infrastructure at most of the world's leading banks, telecoms and retailers. And in client computing, we're excited that all our major PC OEM customers have Ice Lake designs, with 18 already shipping out of a total of 30 expected to launch this year.

我們也看到，我們的突破性記憶體技術 Intel Optane 在雲端運算和企業市場的發展勢頭強勁。本季度，我們宣布與甲骨文公司達成策略合作。Oracle 將英特爾傲騰資料中心級持久記憶體的高效能功能融入其下一代 Exadata 平台中，該平台為全球大多數領先的銀行、電信公司和零售商的高效能資料庫基礎設施提供支援。在客戶端運算領域，我們很高興看到我們所有主要的 PC OEM 客戶都採用了 Ice Lake 設計，今年預計推出的 30 款產品中，已有 18 款出貨。

We recently announced the next generation of Intel Xeon W and X-series processors for high-end desktops. These platforms lead the industry in bringing Intel Deep Learning Boost-powered AI acceleration into high-end PCs and mainstream workstations for the first time. Available soon, these products deliver performance and value that give enthusiasts and creators more reasons to keep choosing Intel.

我們最近發布了高階桌上型電腦的下一代英特爾至強W系列和X系列處理器。這些平台引領業界，首次將英特爾深度學習加速技術帶入高階PC和主流工作站。這些產品即將上市，它們兼具性能和價值，讓發燒友和創作者有更多理由繼續選擇英特爾。

We've also embarked on a multiyear program, called Project Athena, that charts a course for the PC ecosystem to raise the bar on laptop innovation. Amazing devices like the Dell XPS 13 2-in-1 and the HP Elite Dragonfly that meet the Project Athena spec are already available.

我們還啟動了一項名為「雅典娜計畫」的多年計劃，旨在為個人電腦生態系統規劃發展路線，以提高筆記型電腦創新水平。符合雅典娜計畫規範的優秀設備，例如戴爾 XPS 13 二合一筆記型電腦和惠普 Elite Dragonfly 筆記型電腦，已經上市。

Our PC and server franchises are vital, but our ambitions are even greater. We're extending our product leadership to power an increasingly 5G- and AI-enabled world. We have multibillion-dollar networking and IoT/Edge businesses delivering double-digit growth, and AI is driving significant revenue across our product portfolio.

我們的PC和伺服器業務固然重要，但我們的雄心壯志遠不止於此。我們將進一步鞏固我們的產品領先地位，為日益普及的 5G 和人工智慧世界提供動力。我們擁有數十億美元的網路和物聯網/邊緣業務，實現了兩位數的成長，人工智慧正在推動我們整個產品組合的顯著收入成長。

We began investing 10 years ago in network IP, SoC capabilities and software so that we could drive workload convergence on Intel's silicon. Today, we achieved #1 share in the network and silicon market with expected 2019 revenue of more than $5 billion, growing at 12% this year. We're also well-positioned for 5G deployments in 2020 and expect to grow our market segment share in wireless base stations to 40% by 2022. And we're ready for the next market inflection as 5G enables significant new IoT and Edge growth opportunities that extend from in-network and on-premise Edge equipment to smart connected endpoints.

10 年前，我們開始投資網路 IP、SoC 功能和軟體，以便推動工作負載在英特爾晶片上的整合。今天，我們在網路和晶片市場取得了第一的份額，預計 2019 年收入將超過 50 億美元，今年將成長 12%。我們在 2020 年的 5G 部署方面也做好了充分準備，預計到 2022 年，我們在無線基地台市場的份額將成長到 40%。我們已經為下一個市場轉折點做好準備，因為 5G 為物聯網和邊緣運算帶來了巨大的新成長機遇，這些機會從網路內部和本地邊緣設備擴展到智慧連接終端。

Winning here means blending the right compute performance per watt with the emerging killer apps of the Edge, Computer Vision and AI inference acceleration. These are the differentiating capabilities that have propelled our IOTG and Mobileye businesses to leadership share and the combined annual revenues approaching $5 billion. The businesses are also growing quickly, up 18% year-to-date, excluding Wind River. We're only at the bend of the curve in the Edge opportunity, and we're investing to lead.

要在這裡取得成功，就必須將每瓦的運算效能與邊緣運算、電腦視覺和人工智慧推理加速等新興殺手級應用結合。正是這些差異化能力推動我們的 IOTG 和 Mobileye 業務佔據了市場領先地位，並且合併後的年收入接近 50 億美元。這些企業也發展迅速，今年迄今成長了 18%（不包括 Wind River）。我們目前只是處於Edge機會的初期階段，我們正在加大投資以引領這一領域。

Finally, artificial intelligence. AI is becoming a pervasive use case. According to IDC, 75% of enterprise applications will use AI by 2021, and that's why we're infusing AI in everything we build. But this isn't just about the future. We are driving meaningful AI revenue inside Intel now. With products spanning from the data center to the edge, we expect to generate more than $3.5 billion in AI-driven data-centric revenue in 2019, up more than 20% year-over-year.

最後，人工智慧。人工智慧正成為一個無所不在的應用場景。據IDC稱，到2021年，75%的企業應用程式將使用人工智慧，這就是為什麼我們將人工智慧融入我們建構的每個產品中。但這不僅僅關乎未來。我們現在正在英特爾內部推動有意義的人工智慧收入成長。我們的產品涵蓋從資料中心到邊緣的各個領域，預計 2019 年人工智慧驅動的資料中心收入將超過 35 億美元，年成長超過 20%。

We're confident in our growth, but we also need to improve our execution on multiple fronts. First, supply. We've increased our output in response to stronger-than-expected demand. We've invested record levels of CapEx the last 2 years to expand our capacity and support our customers' growth. With that investment, we've increased our 14-nanometer capacity 25% this year while also ramping 10-nanometer production. We expect our second half PC Client supply will be up double digits compared to the first half, and we expect to further increase our PC Client supply by mid- to high single digits in 2020. But that growth hasn't been sufficient. We're letting our customers down, and they're expecting more from us.

我們對自己的發展充滿信心，但我們也需要在多個方面提高執行力。首先是供應。由於需求超出預期，我們提高了產量。過去兩年，我們投入了創紀錄的資本支出，以擴大產能並支持客戶的成長。憑藉這項投資，我們今年的 14 奈米產能提高了 25%，同時 10 奈米產能也得到了提升。我們預計下半年 PC 用戶端供應量將比上半年成長兩位數，並預計 2020 年 PC 用戶端供應量將進一步成長個位數中高段。但這種成長還遠遠不夠。我們讓客戶失望了，他們對我們的期望更高。

PC demand has exceeded our expectations and surpassed third-party forecasts. We now think the market is stronger than we forecasted back in Q2, which has made building inventory buffers difficult. We are working hard to regain supply/demand balance, but we expect to continue to be challenged in the fourth quarter.

個人電腦的需求超出了我們的預期，也超過了第三方的預測。我們現在認為市場比我們在第二季預測的要強勁，這使得建立庫存緩衝變得困難。我們正在努力恢復供需平衡，但預計第四季仍將面臨挑戰。

Our manufacturing process node execution is also improving. We have fabs in Oregon and Israel in volume production on 10-nanometer and will soon start 10-nanometer production in Arizona. Yields are improving ahead of expectations for both client and data center products. The Intel 10-nanometer product era has begun, and our new 10th Gen Core Ice Lake processors are leading the way.

我們的製造流程節點執行情況也不斷改善。我們在俄勒岡州和以色列的晶圓廠已開始批量生產 10 奈米工藝，並將很快在亞利桑那州開始 10 奈米製程的生產。客戶端和資料中心產品的收益率均超出預期，正在逐步提高。英特爾 10 奈米產品時代已經到來，我們全新的第十代酷睿 Ice Lake 處理器正引領著這一潮流。

In Q3, we also shipped our first 10-nanometer Agilex FPGAs. And in 2020, we'll continue to expand our 10-nanometer portfolio with exciting new products, including an AI inference accelerator, 5G base station SoC, Xeon CPUs for server storage and network, and a discrete GPU. This quarter, we've achieved power-on exits for our first discrete GPU, DG1, an important milestone.

第三季度，我們也交付了首批 10 奈米 Agilex FPGA。2020 年，我們將繼續擴展我們的 10 奈米產品組合，推出令人興奮的新產品，包括 AI 推理加速器、5G 基地台 SoC、用於伺服器儲存和網路的 Xeon CPU 以及獨立 GPU。本季度，我們的首款獨立 GPU DG1 實現了通電退出，這是一個重要的里程碑。

As we discussed at the May investor meeting, we are accelerating the pace of process node introductions and moving back to a 2- to 2.5-year cadence. Our process technology and design engineering teams are working closely to ease process design complexity and balance schedule, performance, power and cost. We are on track to launch our first 7-nanometer-based product, a data center-focused discrete GPU, in 2021, 2 years after the launch of 10-nanometer. We are also well down the engineering path on 5-nanometer.

正如我們在五月的投資者會議上所討論的那樣，我們正在加快工藝節點的推出速度，並恢復到 2 到 2.5 年的節奏。我們的製程技術和設計工程團隊正在緊密合作，以簡化製程設計的複雜性，並平衡進度、性能、功率和成本。我們正按計畫於 2021 年推出首款基於 7 奈米製程的產品，這是一款面向資料中心的獨立 GPU，距離 10 奈米製程的推出已有 2 年時間。我們在 5 奈米技術的工程研發方面也取得了長足的進步。

Last, a few thoughts on our capital deployment priorities. We are confident in our future, and our Board has approved an additional $20 billion share buyback authorization. We have an excellent balance sheet, generate strong free cash flow and continue to invest in R&D and CapEx to grow. We've also returned 100% free cash flow to shareholders over the last 10 years.

最後，我想談談我們的資本部署重點。我們對未來充滿信心，董事會已批准追加 200 億美元的股票回購授權。我們擁有優秀的資產負債表，能夠產生強勁的自由現金流，並持續投資於研發和資本支出以實現成長。過去 10 年，我們也已將 100% 的自由現金流返還給了股東。

At the same time, we're making tradeoffs. While we've increased R&D spending by more than $1 billion since 2015, we have reduced our total spending by 9 points over the same period.

同時，我們也需要做出權衡。雖然自 2015 年以來，我們的研發支出增加了 10 億美元以上，但同期我們的總支出卻減少了 9 個百分點。

Additionally, we have established clear criteria for our big bets like Mobileye, 5G, and memory and storage. Our ambitions are to play a larger role in our customers' success and generate attractive returns for our shareholders. And if we can't do both, we'll take swift action.

此外，我們也為 Mobileye、5G 以及記憶體和儲存等重大投資項目制定了明確的標準。我們的目標是在客戶的成功中發揮更大的作用，並為股東創造可觀的回報。如果兩者兼顧不了，我們將迅速採取行動。

We are making great progress with our Mobileye acquisition. We've now shipped over 12 million EyeQ devices this year, up more than 40% over the same period last year. And in the third quarter, we delivered record revenue and secured 6 major new design wins, totaling nearly 10 million lifetime units.

我們在收購Mobileye方面取得了巨大進展。今年我們已出貨超過 1,200 萬台 EyeQ 設備，比去年同期成長超過 40%。第三季度，我們實現了創紀錄的收入，並獲得了 6 個重大的新設計訂單，總計近 1,000 萬台終身設備。

We've increased our investment in 5G, but we've also announced our 5G smartphone modem exit and the sale of the IMFT fab to Micron. We expect those to close in the fourth quarter. And we continue to take steps to improve 3D NAND profitability and reduce memory CapEx investments while evaluating a variety of partnership options that can accelerate the path to profitability and improve returns.

我們增加了對 5G 的投資，但我們也宣布退出 5G 智慧型手機數據機市場，並將 IMFT 工廠出售給美光科技。我們預計這些交易將在第四季完成。我們將繼續採取措施提高 3D NAND 的獲利能力並減少記憶體資本支出投資，同時評估各種合作方案，以加快實現盈利的步伐並提高回報。

We are confident in our multiyear business plan. And consistent with that, we are increasing our buyback commitment. We expect to repurchase approximately 20 billion shares over the next 15 to 18 months. We'll fund the buyback from proceeds we generate from partnerships and/or noncore asset dispositions and by returning approximately 100% of 2020 free cash flow to investors.

我們對我們的多年商業計劃充滿信心。與此一致，我們正在增加回購承諾。我們預計在未來 15 至 18 個月內回購約 200 億股股票。我們將透過合夥企業和/或非核心資產處置所得收益以及將 2020 年約 100% 的自由現金流返還給投資者來為回購提供資金。

In summary, our energies are focused on accelerating our growth, improving our execution and allocating our capital wisely. Thanks to the team for a great quarter.

總而言之，我們的精力集中在加速成長、提高執行力和明智地配置資本。感謝團隊在本季取得的優異成績。

And now I'll hand the call over to George for more details on our Q3 results and business outlook.

現在我將把電話交給喬治，讓他詳細介紹我們第三季的業績和業務展望。

Thanks, Bob, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝你，鮑勃，大家下午好。

We had an outstanding Q3 with record revenue of $19.2 billion, approximately flat year-on-year and $1.2 billion higher than guide. We saw record data-centric revenue of $9.5 billion, representing just under 50% of our total revenue, an all-time high. DCG, IOTG, NSG and Mobileye all individually achieved record revenue in the quarter. PC-centric revenue was down 5% year-on-year on a very tough compare.

我們第三季業績表現出色，營收創歷史新高，達到 192 億美元，與去年同期基本持平，比預期高出 12 億美元。我們創紀錄的資料中心收入達到 95 億美元，佔總收入的近 50%，創歷史新高。DCG、IOTG、NSG 和 Mobileye 在本季度均實現了創紀錄的營收。由於去年同期基數很高，以個人電腦為中心的營收年減了 5%。

Q3 operating margin was approximately 36%, 1 point ahead of our guide on revenue strength and spending leverage. Gross margin for the quarter was 60.4%, modestly below expectations as strong flow-through of higher DCG revenue was more than offset by mix effects of higher-than-expected NAND revenues and onetime impacts in NSG, including the absence of an expected grant associated with our NAND factory.

第三季營業利潤率約為 36%，比我們基於營收強勁和支出槓桿效應的預期高出 1 個百分點。本季毛利率為 60.4%，略低於預期，原因是 DCG 收入成長帶來的強勁成長被高於預期的 NAND 收入和 NSG 的一次性影響（包括與我們的 NAND 工廠相關的預期撥款的缺失）的組合效應所抵消。

Q3 EPS was $1.42, $0.18 above our guide. The results demonstrate strong top line performance, expense discipline, increased share buybacks as well as nonoperational factors like lower tax rate offset by the onetime items in our NSG business. Year-to-date, we have generated $11.7 billion of free cash flow and returned $14.3 billion to shareholders.

第三季每股收益為 1.42 美元，比我們預期高出 0.18 美元。結果顯示，營收表現強勁，費用控管到位，股票回購增加，以及稅率降低等非經營性因素被NSG業務的一次性項目所抵銷。今年迄今為止，我們已產生 117 億美元的自由現金流，並向股東返還了 143 億美元。

Operating margin of 36% in quarter was down approximately 4 points versus last year as ASP strength in our server and client businesses and lower spending were more than offset by NAND pricing degradation, changes in modem reserves, platform volume declines and higher cost as we ramp our 10-nanometer client products.

本季營業利潤率為 36%，比去年同期下降約 4 個百分點，原因是伺服器和客戶端業務的平均售價強勁增長以及支出減少，但這些增長被 NAND 價格下跌、調製解調器儲備變化、平台銷量下降以及隨著我們逐步推出 10 奈米客戶端產品而增加的成本所抵消。

EPS was up 1% or $0.02 year-over-year as lower operating margin was offset by lower share count, the absence of onetime impairments related to the IMFT joint venture and a lower tax rate. Our non-GAAP tax rate in Q3 was approximately 11%, down 1 point versus last year and below our 13% guide as we reported a better-than-expected tax benefit related to our non-U. S. sales on our recently filed 2018 U.S. tax return as well as for the 2019 tax year.

由於營業利潤率下降被較低的股份數量、與 IMFT 合資企業相關的一次性減值損失的減少以及較低的稅率所抵消，每股收益同比增長 1% 或 0.02 美元。第三季我們的非GAAP稅率約為11%，比去年同期下降1個百分點，低於我們13%的預期，因為我們報告了與非美國業務相關的稅收優惠好於預期。S. 銷售額已列入我們最近提交的 2018 年美國報稅表以及 2019 年納稅年度。

Let's move to segment performance. Our Data Center Group had record revenue at $6.4 billion, up 4% from the prior year and up 28% sequentially. These results beat our expectations with platform ASPs up 9% year-over-year on strong adoption of our highest performance 2nd Gen Xeon Scalable products. Against a tough year-over-year compare, platform units were down 6% while DCG adjacencies achieved 12% revenue growth driven by our connectivity solutions. DCG growth segments, cloud and comms, now represent over 2/3 of total DCG revenue.

接下來我們來看分段績效。我們的資料中心集團營收創歷史新高，達到 64 億美元，比上年成長 4%，季增 28%。由於我們性能最高的第二代至強可擴展產品得到了廣泛採用，平台平均售價同比增長 9%，這些結果超出了我們的預期。在年比數據較為嚴峻的情況下，平台業務下降了 6%，而 DCG 相關業務則在我們的連接解決方案的推動下實現了 12% 的收入成長。DCG 的成長板塊，即雲端運算和通信，目前佔 DCG 總收入的 2/3 以上。

Cloud revenue was up 3% year-over-year, returning to growth after a historic 2018 platform refresh as cloud service providers exited a 3-quarter capacity absorption cycle. Enterprise and government revenue came in ahead of expectations, growing 1% on strong mix and better China demand, while communication service providers revenue increased 11% on continued adoption and share gains of IA-based solutions.

雲端收入年增 3%，在經歷了 2018 年的歷史性平台更新後恢復成長，因為雲端服務供應商結束了為期三個季度的容量吸收週期。企業和政府收入超出預期，成長 1%，這得益於強勁的產品組合和中國市場需求的改善；而通訊服務提供商的收入增長 11%，這得益於基於人工智慧的解決方案的持續採用和市場份額的增長。

We estimate in Q3 that the enterprise and government and communication service provider segments benefited from trade-related demand pull-ins of approximately $200 million in revenue from Q4. As a result of the strong top line performance, DCG achieved record quarterly operating income, and operating margin of 49% was up 13 points sequentially.

我們估計，第三季企業和政府以及通訊服務提供者部門受益於貿易相關的需求拉動，收入比第四季增加了約 2 億美元。由於營收強勁成長，DCG 實現了創紀錄的季度營業收入，營業利潤率達到 49%，較上季成長 13 個百分點。

Our other data-centric businesses were up 13% year-over-year, and Q3 marked IOTG's first $1 billion revenue quarter, up 9% year-over-year, underscoring Intel's expanding opportunity at the Edge. IOTG operating income was down 4% year-over-year due to lower benefits from inventory reserves and a mix shift to lower-margin products. Mobileye revenue and operating income were up year-over-year, 20% and 29%, respectively, on continued ADAS penetration and new program launches.

我們其他以數據為中心的業務年增了 13%，第三季 IOTG 的營收首次突破 10 億美元，年增 9%，凸顯了英特爾在邊緣運算領域不斷擴大的機會。由於庫存儲備收益減少以及產品組合轉向低利潤率產品，IOTG 的營業收入年減了 4%。由於 ADAS 的持續滲透和新項目的推出，Mobileye 的收入和營業利潤分別同比增長了 20% 和 29%。

NSG revenue returned to growth, up 19% on continued bit growth, partially offset by year-over-year pricing declines. These pricing declines, along with the onetime impacts discussed earlier, contributed to NSG's operating loss of approximately $500 million. PSG revenue grew 2% year-over-year on continued strength in wireless, partially offset by softness in cloud and enterprise, and operating income was down 13% on segment product mix.

NSG 收入恢復成長，成長 19%，主要得益於比特率的持續成長，但部分被同比價格下降所抵消。這些價格下跌，加上前面討論過的一次性影響，導致 NSG 營運虧損約 5 億美元。PSG 營收年增 2%，主要得益於無線業務的持續強勁成長，但部分被雲端業務和企業業務的疲軟所抵消；由於業務板塊產品組合的原因，營業收入下降了 13%。

CCG revenue was $9.7 billion, down 5% year-over-year, as ASP strength partially offset lower platform volume. PC unit volumes were down 10% versus Q3 '18 where we benefited from drawing down internal inventory to satisfy demand. We continue to be supply-constrained in Q3, particularly at the value end of the market as higher-than-expected PC demand strength continues to outpace our supply despite the capacity additions that Bob discussed earlier.

CCG 營收為 97 億美元，年減 5%，ASP 的強勁成長部分抵銷了平台交易量的下降。PC 裝置銷售量較 2018 年第三季下降了 10%，當時我們受益於內部庫存的減少以滿足需求。第三季我們仍然面臨供應限制，尤其是在價值端市場，因為高於預期的個人電腦需求強勁，儘管鮑伯之前討論過產能增加，但仍然超過了我們的供應。

Adjacencies grew 10% year-over-year driven by strong demand for modems and connectivity solutions. Operating margin was 44%, flat year-on-year, as lower revenue was offset by lower spending driven by the 5G smartphone modem exit.

受調製解調器和連接解決方案的強勁需求推動，鄰近業務年增 10%。營業利潤率為 44%，與去年持平，收入下降被 5G 智慧型手機數據機退出市場導致的支出減少所抵消。

Year-to-date, we have generated $23.3 billion dollars in operating cash flow and invested $11.5 billion in CapEx. We also returned 122% of free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. During the quarter, we ramped buybacks, purchasing 92 million shares at an average price of $48.78 per share.

今年迄今為止，我們已產生 233 億美元的營運現金流，並在資本支出方面投資了 115 億美元。我們也透過分紅和股票回購，將自由現金流的 122% 返還給了股東。本季度，我們加大了股票回購力度，以每股 48.78 美元的平均價格回購了 9,200 萬股股票。

Now moving to the full year outlook. As a result of our strong Q3 operating performance and momentum into Q4, we are increasing our revenue outlook for 2019 by $1.5 billion to $71 billion. We expect revenue from our data-centric businesses to be flat to slightly up for the full year and expect our PC-centric business to be flat to slightly down, both improving versus prior guidance.

現在來看全年展望。由於我們第三季強勁的營運業績以及第四季的良好勢頭，我們將 2019 年的營收預期上調 15 億美元至 710 億美元。我們預計全年數據業務收入將持平或略有成長，而個人電腦業務收入將持平或略有下降，兩者均比先前的預期有所改善。

Operating margin for the year is expected to be approximately 32.5%, up 0.5 points from our prior guide. Full year expectations for gross margin are unchanged at approximately 60%. We expect Q4 gross margin to be down 2 to 2.5 points sequentially as we continue to ramp 10-nanometer and will have sold through the previously reserved inventory, consistent with prior expectations. Expectations for full year spending are unchanged, down approximately $900 million year-on-year.

預計全年營業利潤率約為 32.5%，比我們先前預期的高出 0.5 個百分點。全年毛利率預期維持在 60% 左右。我們預計第四季毛利率將環比下降 2 至 2.5 個百分點，因為我們將繼續提高 10 奈米技術的產能，並且先前預留的庫存也將售罄，這與先前的預期一致。全年支出預期維持不變，年減約 9 億美元。

As a result, non-GAAP EPS for the year is now expected to be $4.60, up $0.20 from our July guide on strong top line performance and tight expense control. We are raising gross CapEx by $0.5 billion to $16 billion as a result of increased 10-nanometer and 7-nanometer investment. And we are raising our free cash flow guide by $1 billion to $16 billion.

因此，由於強勁的營收表現和嚴格的成本控制，預計本年度非GAAP每股收益為4.60美元，比我們7月份的預期高出0.20美元。由於增加了對 10 奈米和 7 奈米技術的投資，我們的總資本支出將增加 5 億美元，達到 160 億美元。我們將自由現金流預期上調 10 億美元至 160 億美元。

Let's turn to Q4. After adjusting for the impact of trade-related pull-ins in DCG, we expect Q4 revenue of $19.2 billion, up 3% year-over-year and flat sequentially. Our data-centric businesses are expected to be up 6% to 8% year-over-year on continued cloud recovery and sequential NAND pricing growth. Our PC-centric business is expected to be flat to slightly down year-over-year. We expect Q4 operating margin of approximately 33.5% and a tax rate of 13.5%. EPS is expected to be $1.24, down sequentially on lower gross margin, lower below-the-line nonoperational benefits and a higher tax rate.

讓我們來看第四季。在剔除貿易相關業務成長對 DCG 的影響後，我們預期第四季營收為 192 億美元，年增 3%，季持平。受雲端運算持續復甦和 NAND 快閃記憶體價格環比成長的推動，我們以資料為中心的業務預計將年增 6% 至 8%。我們以個人電腦為中心的業務預計與去年同期相比將持平或略有下降。我們預計第四季營業利潤率約為 33.5%，稅率為 13.5%。預計每股收益為 1.24 美元，環比下降，原因是毛利率下降、線下非經營性收益減少以及稅率上升。

In summary, we are very pleased with the company's strong operating performance, and we will be very focused over the quarter on delivering a record year.

總而言之，我們對公司強勁的經營業績非常滿意，本季我們將全力以赴，爭取創下年度業績新高。

With that, let me turn it back over to Trey.

那麼，現在讓我把麥克風交還給特雷。

All right. Thank you, George. Moving on now to the Q&A. (Operator Instructions) Operator, please go ahead and introduce our first caller.

好的。謝謝你，喬治。接下來進入問答環節。（操作員指示）操作員，請介紹我們的第一位來電者。

Our first question comes from the line of C.J. Muse from Evercore.

我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse 的一句話。

I guess a question on the data center side. It's just -- to clear up the numbers, it looks like you're suggesting DCG up maybe 5% year-on-year. So can you speak to the accuracy of that? And then, I guess, bigger picture, the comms service provider side, clearly, a very large source of strength for you guys, up 11% year-on-year and now representing more than 40% of the mix. So curious if you can kind of speak to the most important drivers of that business and how you're thinking about growth over the next 1, 2, 3 years?

我想問一個關於資料中心方面的問題。只是為了澄清一下數字，看起來您是說 DCG 同比增長可能達到 5%。那麼，你能證實一下這個說法的準確性嗎？然後，我想，從更宏觀的角度來看，通訊服務提供者方面，顯然是你們非常重要的優勢來源，年增 11%，現在佔比超過 40%。所以，我很想知道您能否談談推動這項業務發展的最重要因素，以及您對未來1、2、3年成長的想像？

Yes. Thanks, C.J. First, we gave a DC-centric guide of 6% to 8%. And yes, I would -- we didn't give DCG specifically, but I would say it's a little bit lower than our 6% to 8% data center growth, so you're in the ballpark.

是的。謝謝，C.J.。首先，我們給出了以直流電為中心的 6% 到 8% 的指導值。是的，我會——我們沒有具體給出 DCG 的數據，但我認為它比我們 6% 到 8% 的數據中心增長率略低，所以你的估計差不多。

On comms service, the comms -- this has been an extremely important aspect of the business for a number of years now where we've seen the programmability at the networks with NFV and software-defined networks an opportunity for us to migrate the networking environment to IA architecture. So we've been doing this for a number of years. It's been a fulsome growth for us over time. And in the quarter, the 11% growth was significant in and of itself, but remember, last year's third quarter was also up in the mid- to high 20s. So we continue to make good -- great progress.

在通訊服務方面，通訊——多年來一直是業務中極其重要的方面，我們看到了 NFV 和軟體定義網路的可編程性，這為我們提供了一個將網路環境遷移到 IA 架構的機會。我們已經這樣做了好幾年了。隨著時間的推移，我們取得了全面的發展。本季 11% 的成長本身就意義重大，但請記住，去年第三季的成長也達到了 20% 到 30% 之間。所以我們繼續取得良好——巨大的進步。

What we see going forward in this business is really a big opportunity in 5G. So next year, you're going to see -- our good progress has been on 3G and 4G. Next year, we see real design wins that we've achieved, real growth as we go into that 5G world where we continue to see what we characterize as cloudification the network, more and more compute moving from the cloud and data centers out to a network and Edge. And that's been an opportunity for us that we've been investing in over the past, and we expect to be a big source of growth for us going forward.

我們認為，未來這個產業在 5G 領域將迎來巨大的機會。所以明年你們將會看到——我們在 3G 和 4G 方面取得了良好的進展。明年，我們將看到我們取得的真正設計上的成功，隨著我們進入 5G 世界，我們將迎來真正的成長，我們將繼續看到我們稱之為網路雲化的趨勢，越來越多的運算從雲端和資料中心轉移到網路和邊緣。而這正是我們過去一直在投資的機會，我們預期它將成為我們未來成長的重要來源。

Our next question comes from the line of John Pitzer from Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰‧皮策。

Congratulations on the solid results. I want to stick with DCG, Bob. If you look, impressive, but ASPs were up 9% year-over-year, especially as the mix shifted towards the comms business, which I believe tends to be lower ASPs. It's also happening in the quarter where you're seeing your competitor ramping their next-generation chips. So I guess I'm trying to understand what's the power of the Xeon Scalable upgrade cycle you referred to in your prepared comments? What inning are we in, in your mind? How much of an ASP lift can that give you? And do you anticipate any unusual pricing action as competition heats up in this market?

祝賀你們取得如此優異的成績。鮑勃，我想繼續留在DCG。如果你仔細觀察，你會發現這令人印象深刻，但平均售價比去年同期成長了 9%，尤其是在業務結構轉向通訊業務的情況下，我認為通訊業務的平均售價往往較低。同時，你的競爭對手也正在加緊生產下一代晶片。所以我想了解的是，您在準備好的評論中提到的 Xeon 可擴展升級週期的優勢究竟是什麼？你覺得我們現在處於比賽的哪一局？這樣能帶來多少平均售價提升？隨著市場競爭加劇，您是否預期會出現任何異常的價格波動？

Oh, boy. Was that your one question, John?

我的天哪。約翰，你就問這一個問題嗎？

Multiple parts.

多個部分。

Yes. Okay. So first, I'd say in our -- obviously, we're well into Skylake, but the transition now is into Cascade Lake, and that's a higher performance SKU. In the quarter, the high ASPs were really driven by particularly cloud customers really moving to the highest end product within the Cascade Lake family. So we're seeing the transition from Skylake to Cascade Lake, and within Cascade Lake, real high-performance SKU that's our highest performance ASP. So that mix dynamic in Q3, I don't expect that to stay where it is. I think we'll go to more of a balance as we're into Q4 next year.

是的。好的。首先，我想說的是，我們——顯然，我們已經進入了 Skylake 時代，但現在正在過渡到 Cascade Lake，這是一個性能更高的 SKU。本季度，高平均售價主要得益於雲端客戶向 Cascade Lake 系列中最高階產品的升級。所以我們看到從 Skylake 到 Cascade Lake 的過渡，而 Cascade Lake 中真正的高性能 SKU 是我們性能最高的 ASP。因此，我認為第三季的這種混音動態不會保持不變。我認為到了明年第四季度，我們會更加平衡一些。

In terms of competitive dynamics, I would just say that we got a great lineup of products. We got Skylake to Cascade Lake. First half to next year, we're looking at Cooper Lake. As we talked before, we're really excited about Ice Lake server coming out in the second half of next year. And we realize it will be a more competitive environment, and we've tried to capture that in essence in how we think about 2020 for both demand equation but also the margins that we've flagged a little bit on the -- on our Q2 call back at Analyst Day, I think.

就競爭格局而言，我只想說我們擁有非常出色的產品陣容。我們把斯凱萊克湖帶到了卡斯卡德湖。上半年到明年，我們將重點放在庫柏湖。正如我們之前所說，我們對明年下半年即將推出的 Ice Lake 伺服器感到非常興奮。我們意識到這將是一個競爭更加激烈的環境，我們已經嘗試在對 2020 年的需求方程式以及我們在分析師日第二季度電話會議上稍微提到的利潤率方面，從本質上捕捉到這一點。

So good quarter, good momentum first half to second half; high performance SKUs driving real high ASPs even though, you're right, that the ASPs with comms have a tendency to be a little bit lower.

所以本季業績不錯，上半年到下半年的勢頭良好；高性能 SKU 推動了非常高的平均售價，儘管你說得對，包含廣告宣傳的平均售價往往會略低一些。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Moore from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾。

I wonder if you could talk to the shortages a little bit more and, I guess, in the context of how much you said you brought 14-nanometer capacity up. And I realize demand is better, but it seems like it's a few points better, and yet the shortages are intensifying. Can you just talk a little bit about that? And when do you think we'll be in a position where you don't have those tensions in your business anymore?

我想請您再多談談短缺問題，特別是考慮到您之前提到的將 14 奈米製程的產能提升了多少。我知道需求有所改善，但似乎只改善了幾個百分點，然而短缺情況卻在加劇。能稍微談談這方面嗎？你認為什麼時候才能讓你的企業不再面臨這些壓力？

Yes. Thanks, Joe. First, just kind of try to put it in to context. Over the course of the last 3 years, I guess, we've grown the business by about 20%, so $13 billion in revenue over the last 3 years. And the practical reality is we didn't anticipate that kind of explosive growth 3 years ago. So we didn't have the capacity in place to deal with it. We've been working our tails off for the last 12 months to ensure for our customers that we wouldn't be a constraint on their growth. From the last 2 years, I think, as you know, we've spent over $30 billion in CapEx to both have more capacity for 14 while we also begin to ramp 10.

是的。謝謝你，喬。首先，試著把它放到適當的脈絡中去理解。在過去的三年裡，我們的業務成長了約 20%，也就是過去三年實現了 130 億美元的收入。而實際情況是，3年前我們並沒有預料到這種爆炸性成長。所以當時我們沒有足夠的能力來應付這種情況。在過去 12 個月裡，我們一直在努力工作，以確保我們不會成為客戶發展的阻礙。過去兩年，如您所知，我們投入超過 300 億美元的資本支出，既是為了增加 14 座工廠的產能，也是為了開始提高 10 座工廠的產能。

In my prepared comments, I said we added 25% wafer start capacity 2018 to 2019. Our first half to second half unit volume will be up double digit, so we're making good progress throughout the course of the year, but our expectations were in the second half we will be back in a supply/demand equilibrium. And the fact of the matter is we're not there because the demand profile that's resulting in our $1.5 billion higher revenue is just higher than we had anticipated. So we have more work to do to meet our customers' demands in the fourth quarter and going into '20.

我在事先準備好的演講稿中提到，我們在 2018 年至 2019 年期間增加了 25% 的晶圓啟動產能。我們上半年到下半年的銷售量將達到兩位數的成長，因此我們全年都在取得良好進展，但我們的預期是下半年我們將恢復供需平衡。事實是，我們還沒有達到目標，因為帶來15億美元額外收入的需求比我們預期的要高。因此，為了滿足客戶在第四季和 2020 年的需求，我們還有更多工作要做。

As we see fourth quarter, we're still going to be constrained in our customers' growth, which is absolutely where we do not want to be, but with the higher demand, we will be constraining the growth in the fourth quarter. But as we go into 2020, our expectations are we'll add another 25% capacity both for 14 and 10 and that we will have -- particularly for PC Client, we expect to be able to do mid- to high single-digit unit volume growth next year. And that -- we don't expect the market to grow that fast, but we got to have just more inventory buffers so we're there when our customers need us. So Q4 will be a little challenging, and in 2020, we expect to be able to rectify things.

展望第四季度，我們客戶的成長仍將受到限制，這絕對是我們不希望看到的，但由於需求增加，第四季度的成長將會受到限制。但展望 2020 年，我們預計 14 吋和 10 吋的產能將分別增加 25%，並且——特別是 PC 客戶端——我們預計明年能夠實現中高個位數的銷售成長。而且——我們預計市場不會成長那麼快，但我們必須增加庫存緩衝，以便在客戶需要我們的時候能夠及時滿足他們的需求。所以第四季會有些挑戰，我們預計在 2020 年能夠扭轉局面。

Our next question comes from the line of Ambrish Srivastava from BMO Bank of Montreal.

我們的下一個問題來自蒙特利爾銀行的 Ambrish Srivastava。

Bob, I wanted to go through the priority and the cadence that you talked about, bringing it back to 2, 2.5 here. Is that -- because my understanding is that they were just simply laws of physics that were causing the cadence to stretch out. So what problems have the engineers and the process folks solved out there? Or is it just limited to the 7-nanometer, and then you would revisit that again?

鮑勃，我想回顧一下你剛才提到的優先順序和節奏，回到 2、2.5 這個數字。是因為──我的理解是，它們只是物理定律導致節奏拉長而已。那麼，工程師和製程人員都解決了哪些問題呢？或者它僅限於 7 奈米，然後你會再次考慮這個尺寸？

Yes. It's a good question. Last -- back in our Analyst Day, we tried to go through this in quite a bit of detail, both, one, kind of our lessons learned coming out of the challenges we had with 10 and how we're capturing those lessons learned as we think about the next 2 generations. But first, our focus and energy is, right now, we're on scaling 10. And as we said, we feel very good about the capacity we put in place, the products we have coming down the pipeline and the yields that we're achieving, almost week-on-week improvement over the last 6 months. So for 10, we feel really good.

是的。這是個好問題。最後——在我們的分析師日上，我們嘗試詳細探討了這個問題，一方面是我們從第 10 代產品遇到的挑戰中吸取了哪些經驗教訓，另一方面是我們在思考未來兩代產品時如何吸取這些經驗教訓。但首先，我們目前的重點和精力都放在了擴大規模上，也就是 10。正如我們所說，我們對已投入的產能、即將推出的產品以及我們所取得的產量感到非常滿意，在過去的 6 個月裡，幾乎每週都在進步。所以10分，我們感覺非常好。

Second, we -- when we put the design rules in for 7-nanometer, we were less aggressive in terms of density. Our learning from going from 14 to 10 is -- with the benefit of hindsight, we were just -- we tried to scale at a 2.7 factor, and that was -- that ended up putting too much indention or revolutionary nodes into the fab environment to meet those kind of hurdles. And the learning from that is we just can't hit those kind of really aggressive targets when, to your point, the dynamics are getting increasingly challenging, so lots of learnings out of 10.

其次，我們在製定 7 奈米製程的設計規則時，在密度方面並沒有那麼激進。從 14 到 10 的轉變中我們學到的教訓是——事後看來，我們當時只是——我們試圖以 2.7 倍的規模進行擴展，結果——這最終導致製造環境出現了太多的凹陷或革命性的節點，以克服這些障礙。從中我們得到的教訓是，正如你所說，當情況變得越來越複雜時，我們根本無法實現那些非常激進的目標，所以從中我們學到了很多東西。

Our transition to 10 that we incorporated into 7, the design rules, there's less complexity. And for the last couple years, we've been working with EUV. Litho has been the challenge. We've had EUV that we've been working with for a few years now. And we expect to use EUV as we scale 7. And we indicated that our first product will be 2 years from this quarter, so fourth quarter of 2021, our first 7-nanometer product will come out. And our expectation is we'll get back on a 2-year cadence in 7 and beyond. So lots of learnings out of 10-nanometer that we've incorporated. And we said back in May and we reiterated today, we expect to be back to a 2- to 2.5-year cadence going forward, at least for the next few nodes.

我們向 10 過渡，並將 7 融入其中，設計規則也更加簡潔。在過去的幾年裡，我們一直在使用 EUV 技術。膠印一直是個挑戰。我們已經使用 EUV 設備好幾年了。我們預計在擴大 7 奈米製程規模時會使用 EUV 技術。我們曾表示，我們的首款產品將在兩年後，也就是 2021 年第四季推出，屆時我們的首款 7 奈米產品將會面世。我們預計在7年及以後，我們將恢復到每兩年一次的節奏。因此，我們從 10 奈米技術中汲取了許多經驗並加以應用。我們在五月就說過，今天也再次重申，我們預計未來至少在接下來的幾個節點上，將恢復到 2 到 2.5 年的節奏。

Our next question comes from the line of Pierre Ferragu from New Street Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu。

I'll ask one question that (technical difficulty)

我問一個問題，（技術難度較高）

Pierre, you're breaking up.

皮埃爾，你們要分手了。

Okay. Let me -- a little better now?

好的。現在我感覺好些了嗎？

A little bit.

一點點。

Okay. So my question is really about your competitive landscape. So your main competitor [indicate 86] ecosystem has produced in the last 10 months or 9 (technical difficulty) that's why it's not even impressive in the data center and also (technical difficulty). And so my question is what's your perception on the evolution of your competitive landscape in the last 3 months? Are things [being mainly] in line with what you had in mind and what you are expecting when we spoke over the summer? And then how much of like the footprint you have in the data-centric you think you can produce competition with that in mind?

好的。所以我的問題其實是關於你們的競爭格局。所以你的主要競爭對手[指示 86]生態系統在過去 10 個月或 9 個月內（技術困難）產出，這就是為什麼它在資料中心甚至都不令人印象深刻，而且（技術困難）。所以我的問題是，您如何看待過去三個月來競爭格局的演變？事情是否基本上符合你夏天和我們談話時的想法和期望？那麼，考慮到你在資料中心領域擁有的影響力，你認為你能在多大程度上與競爭對手抗衡呢？

Pierre, let me kind of reframe that maybe. I think you were talking about competition and how we feel about that now maybe...

皮埃爾，或許我可以換個方式解釋一下。我想你剛剛是在談論競爭以及我們現在對此的感受…

Both at the PC and the data center level. And I'll -- maybe I'll jump in on the PC because I think the year-over-year compare in Q3 is -- could be causing some concern. Just a reminder, in Q3 of last year, we had basically drawn down more than 1.5 weeks of inventory that -- which went into the channel. And so when you do compares year-over-year on Q3, PC looks a little bit light on demand.

無論是在個人電腦層面或是資料中心層面。我——或許我會在電腦上參與討論，因為我認為第三季同比數據——可能會引起一些擔憂。提醒一下，去年第三季度，我們基本上已經消耗了超過 1.5 週的庫存——這些庫存已經進入了渠道。因此，從第三季年比來看，PC 的需求似乎有點疲軟。

Really, as we look over the last 90 days, we haven't seen any difference in our view of the competitive dynamics. We are clearly being impacted significantly on the value end of the market, which is a supply issue for us. It's one of the reasons why we're building volume capacity -- continuing to build volume capacity into 2020 because we think it gives us an opportunity to compete for those units again next year.

實際上，回顧過去 90 天，我們對競爭格局的看法並沒有改變。很明顯，我們在價值型市場受到了很大的影響，這對我們來說是一個供應問題。這也是我們擴大產能的原因之一——我們將持續擴大產能到 2020 年，因為我們認為這給了我們明年再次競爭這些產品的機會。

Bob, I don't know if you want to comment on the DCG side.

鮑勃，我不知道你是否想對DCG方面發表評論。

Yes. I'll try because I'm not exactly sure I got the question, but yes, in terms of competitiveness, if that's the...

是的。我試著回答一下，因為我不太確定我是否完全理解了這個問題，但是，是的，就競爭力而言，如果這就是…

That was it.

事情就是這樣。

The question. Look, it's a more competitive world. And in that world, we just raised our full year outlook by $1.5 billion and increased our operating margin. So yes, I think, competitively, nothing's really changed in the last 3, 6, 9 months relative to what we expected, and our -- the only thing that's really changed is our performance. But we do know that, going into next year, that our role is to dramatically expand the role we play in our customers' success. So we're expanding the product, the architectures, the packaging technologies, the process capabilities and the software that we build so we can continue to deliver better and better product performance for our customers. And I'd just say that we feel really good about where we are, but we're not complacent by any means in terms of an increased competitive environment as we go into 2020.

問題。你看，現在的世界競爭更激烈了。在這樣的環境下，我們剛剛將全年預期提高了 15 億美元，並提高了營業利潤率。所以，是的，我認為，從競爭角度來看，過去 3、6、9 個月裡，相對於我們的預期，並沒有什麼真正的變化，唯一真正改變的是我們的表現。但我們知道，展望明年，我們的角色是大幅擴大我們在客戶成功中所扮演的角色。因此，我們正在擴展產品、架構、封裝技術、製程能力和我們開發的軟體，以便我們能夠繼續為客戶提供越來越好的產品效能。我想說，我們對目前的狀況感到非常滿意，但隨著 2020 年競爭環境的加劇，我們絕對不會因此而自滿。

Our next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon from Bernstein Research.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究公司的史黛西·拉斯貢。

I was wondering if you could tell us, within your enterprise, cloud and comm businesses in DCG, in the quarter, how much of each of those was driven by China? And given the 200-millimeter -- $200 million pull-forward across enterprise and cloud that you mentioned -- enterprise and comm that you mentioned, was that beating enterprise relative to your expectations more or less than $200 million?

我想請問您能否告訴我們，在貴公司資料中心集團的企業、雲端和通訊業務中，本季分別有多少是由中國市場推動的？鑑於您提到的企業和雲端領域 2 億美元的提前支出，以及您提到的企業和通訊領域，這是否超過了您預期的 2 億美元？

Yes. I think, Stacy, you've got the numbers right. $200 million was on the enterprise and government and comms area. And that's -- I would say it was more in line with our expectations. Once you take out that $200 million number, we had expected it to come up a little bit. The growth year-over-year was definitely above our expectations and...

是的。史泰西，我覺得你的數字是對的。其中 2 億美元用於企業、政府和通訊領域。而這——我認為這更符合我們的預期。去掉那2億美元的數字之後，我們原本就預料到它會略有成長。同比增長率絕對超出了我們的預期，而且…

So by more than $200 million?

所以超過2億美元？

Yes, that was a fairly big number for us relative to our expectations.

是的，相對於我們的預期來說，這個數字相當大。

So how much of enterprise was China then?

那麼，當時的中國企業規模有多大？

Yes. Look, I think in terms of the makeup of the business, for data center, you got roughly 2/3 is cloud and comms and roughly 1/3 is enterprise and government. So that, as you know, has changed dramatically over the years as we've continued to grow our presence in the cloud, and as I mentioned earlier to Joe's question, I think, gained share in comms. So now we're in kind of 2/3, 1/3 state. And enterprise and government was -- across the board in DCG in the quarter, the strength was much higher than we anticipated back in July. We had a first half to second half acceleration, but the acceleration was just more than we expected. And yes, I would say we saw strength across the board.

是的。我認為，就資料中心業務的組成而言，大約 2/3 是雲端運算和通信，大約 1/3 是企業和政府。如你所知，隨著我們在雲端不斷發展壯大，這種情況多年來發生了巨大的變化，而且正如我之前在回答喬的問題時提到的那樣，我認為我們在通訊領域也獲得了份額。所以現在我們處於一種三分之二，三分之一的狀態。企業和政府——在本季 DCG 的各個方面——表現都遠超我們 7 月的預期。我們上半場到下半場出現了加速，但加速的幅度超出了我們的預期。是的，我認為各個方面都表現出了強勁勢頭。

But as we look at the E&G growth in particular, we're trying to determine what is kind of -- what has the tendency to like pull in versus what can we count on as we project things forward. And our best guess on our stronger performance is that the $1.2 billion that we are over, roughly $200 million of that was particularly related to enterprise and government than particularly related to China.

但當我們特別關注能源和天然氣產業的成長時，我們試圖確定哪些因素具有吸引成長的趨勢，哪些因素是我們預測未來發展時可以依賴的。我們對業績表現強勁的最佳猜測是，我們超越的 12 億美元中，大約有 2 億美元與企業和政府有關，而不是與中國有關。

Our next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Timothy Arcuri。

Bob, it sounds like -- for 10-nanometer, it sounds like Ice Lake is still on track for the second half of next year. And it sounds like the 7-nanometer GPGPU is still on track for 2021. You did talk about, for the first time, about 5-nanometer. So can you talk a little bit about how you think of make versus outsource? And really what I'm after is, is sort of anything sacred? Or if going to a foundry partner to make CPU or maybe even like a chiplet strategy, if that would eliminate a significant piece of your competitive disadvantage, would you consider that? Or is that sort of off the table for now?

鮑勃，聽起來——就 10 奈米製程而言，Ice Lake 似乎仍有望在明年下半年發布。聽起來，7奈米GPGPU仍有望在2021年按計畫推出。你第一次談到了 5 奈米技術。那麼，您能否談談您如何看待自製與外包呢？我真正想知道的是，是否存在某種神聖的東西？或者，如果與代工廠合作夥伴合作生產 CPU，或採用晶片組策略，如果這能消除你相當大的競爭劣勢，你會考慮這樣做嗎？或者說，目前來看，這個方案已經排除在外了？

Yes. I mean, first, to the comment, yes, the -- nothing new about process relative to what we said at Analyst Day, ramp 10, 2-year cadence for 7 and our expectations that the cadence going forward will be more like 2- to 2.5-year time frame. So intently focused on 10 now and 7 for the product you mentioned in the fourth quarter. So we're investing to recapture process leadership going forward.

是的。我的意思是，首先，針對評論，是的，流程方面沒有什麼新內容，與我們在分析師日上所說的一致，即逐步增加 10 名員工，每 2 年推出 7 名員工，並且我們預計未來的節奏將更像是 2 到 2.5 年的時間框架。所以現在我全神貫注於第 10 項，而您在第四季度提到的產品則有 7 項。因此，我們正在加大投資，以重新奪回流程的領先地位。

At the same time, we're going to be extremely open-minded about how do we ensure that we're building the best products, and where we build them is something that we'll always evaluate. I think, as you know with the other foundry players, they've been a source of our capacities over the years. And our expectation is, to the extent that they can do something to support our growth better and/or for peak kind of demands, we're always going to look at how do we evaluate the opportunity set that's going to position us best to meet our customers' demand for the growing diversity of products that we have in our portfolio.

同時，我們將以極其開放的心態來思考如何確保我們打造出最好的產品，而在哪裡打造這些產品則是我們始終會評估的問題。我認為，正如您所知，與其他代工廠一樣，多年來他們一直是我們產能的來源。我們的期望是，如果他們能夠採取一些措施來更好地支持我們的成長和/或應對高峰期的需求，我們將始終考慮如何評估各種機會，以便更好地滿足客戶對我們產品組合中日益多樣化產品的需求。

Our next question comes from the line of Ross Seymore from Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅斯·西摩。

I wanted to ask on gross margin. A year ago in your third quarter call, Bob, you gave some directional commentary on what you thought for the out-year, for 2019. Today, as we look into 2020, you have a lot of moving parts with 2 nodes ramping, 10-nanometer, 7-nanometer, yields, competition, lots of moving parts, admittedly. But I was hoping, at least versus maybe the fourth quarter exit rate this year, that you could give some puts and takes on how you're feeling about next year's gross margin.

我想問一下毛利率的問題。鮑勃，一年前的第三季電話會議上，你對未來一年，也就是 2019 年，做了一些方向性評論。今天，當我們展望 2020 年時，會發現有很多變數，包括 2 個節點的量產（10 奈米、7 奈米）、良率、競爭等等，確實有很多變數。但我希望，至少與今年第四季的退出率相比，您能就您對明年毛利率的看法發表一些看法。

Ross, this is George. Maybe I'll take that. Actually, with respect to 2020, there's no material change to my characterization on the last call where we were talking about a 58% outlook for Q4 and 57% in 2021. And the question was, well, should that -- is there -- are those good proxies for 2020? And my point was we think we'll be closer to 60% than to those numbers.

羅斯，這位是喬治。或許我會接受。事實上，就 2020 年而言，我上次電話會議上的描述並沒有什麼實質性的變化，當時我們討論的是第四季度 58% 的預期和 2021 年 57% 的預期。問題是，這些是否應該——是否存在——這些是 2020 年的良好替代指標？我的意思是，我們認為實際比例會更接近 60%，而不是那些數字。

But if you want to think about tailwinds and headwinds going into 2020 that we looked at as we think about that number, so tailwinds will be, obviously, we're going to have lower modem in the mix next year. Memory is starting to come out of that deep-down ASP period, and we think volumes are going to be up as we get a little better supply and demand situation.

但如果你想考慮我們在考慮這個數字時所看到的 2020 年的順風和逆風，那麼順風顯然是，明年調變解調器的使用率將會降低。記憶體產品開始走出低迷的平均售價時期，我們認為隨著供需狀況的改善，銷售量將會上升。

The headwinds that we're very mindful of is, obviously, 10-nanometer ramping is -- can be a little bit of a headwind on margins and also competitive impact on ASP. So those are the things that we'll continue to look at. But as we look at those today, no material change at all from my previous comments.

我們非常關注的不利因素顯然是，10 奈米製程的加速可能會對利潤率造成一些不利影響，也會對平均售價產生競爭影響。所以，這些都是我們將繼續關注的問題。但就我們今天所看到的，與我之前的評論相比，並沒有任何實質的變化。

Yes. I would probably just, I guess, echo. In all the complexity and all the moving parts, George kind of flagged -- what I'd characterize the 4 things that we're really dialing in on. One, going into next year, mix is going to be better because our modem volume will be lower and our NSG profitability will be better. So mix is going to have a -- mix has been a drag on 2019's gross margin, and it will be a big contributor as we go into 2020.

是的。我大概只會附和吧。在所有複雜因素和所有變動因素中，喬治有點提不起勁兒——我總結了我們真正關注的 4 件事。第一，展望明年，產品組合將會更好，因為我們的數據機銷售量將會下降，而我們的 NSG 獲利能力將會提高。所以混合銷售將會——混合銷售一直是 2019 年毛利率的拖累因素，而且隨著我們進入 2020 年，它將成為重要的貢獻因素。

And secondly, on the first half of 2019, we had a lot of the on [O] costs, your cost of sales related to pre-PRQ 10-nanometer product. So that will not repeat itself. So those 2 things are good, favorable things.

其次，在 2019 年上半年，我們有許多關於 [O] 的成本，也就是與 PRQ 之前的 10 奈米產品相關的銷售成本。所以這樣的事情不會再發生。所以這兩件事都是好事，都是有利的。

The third thing is just -- George flagged this, I'd just simplify this node transition. And for us, node transition next year is going to be -- 14-nanometer will be a little better in terms of its profitability. Yields won't be dramatically different because we're extremely mature, but depreciation levels will be lower because a lot of these tools have been fully depreciated there because we've been on that node for so long.

第三點是──喬治指出了這一點，我建議簡化這個節點轉換。對我們來說，明年的節點過渡將是－14 奈米製程在獲利能力方面會更好一些。收益率不會有太大變化，因為我們的技術已經非常成熟，但折舊水平會降低，因為很多工具在那裡已經完全折舊了，因為我們在這個節點上已經運行了很長時間。

But for the node transition, 14 will be a little bit better. Our expectation is 10-nanometer yields will continue to improve, but at the same time, the mix of 10 versus 14 will be a little bit of a wait. So node transition will work against us. And we also -- we've tried to, as best we can, take into account competitive dynamics as we exit this year and go into next year. In our quest to play a bigger role in our customers' success, we're going to compete to protect our position and expand the role we play.

但對於節點過渡來說，14 會稍微好一點。我們預計 10 奈米製程的良率將持續提高，但同時，10 奈米與 14 奈米製程的混合比例還需要一段時間才能達到理想狀態。因此，節點轉換對我們不利。而且，我們也盡最大努力考慮到今年結束和明年到來之際的競爭動態。為了在客戶的成功中發揮更大的作用，我們將透過競爭來鞏固我們的地位並擴大我們所扮演的角色。

So those are the 4 things and lots of complexity and lots of moving parts, but we -- a year ago, we dialed in 2019 pretty well. Now we've got to dial in 2020 as well.

所以，這就是這 4 件事，其中有許多複雜因素和變動因素，但——一年前，我們已經很好地調整好了 2019 年的計畫。現在我們還得把2020年也納入計畫。

Our next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的維韋克·阿亞。

Bob, you mentioned you're still facing some capacity shortages. I wanted to understand how you're planning capacity for next year. What proportion will be 14? What will be 10? And will that mix require a higher or similar level of capital intensity as we saw this year?

鮑勃，你提到你們仍然面臨一些產能短缺問題。我想了解你們明年的產能規劃狀況。14 的比例是多少？10是多少？這種組合是否需要像今年一樣更高或類似的資本密集度？

Yes. I mean our intention next year is to not be a constraint on our customers' growth, first and foremost. And given that, what I indicated is we expect to increase capacity by 25% next year, which is the same kind of level that we did this year. We expect to do that again. So we believe that data center, we've been in pretty decent shape. But for client, we just want to get to mid-single-digit kind of unit output -- mid- to high single-digit unit output so, one, we can meet what we expect customer demand profiles to be but also so we can rebuild buffer levels of inventory so we can deal with these peaks, et cetera. So we're trying to put the capacity in place, but we think we'll meet the customer demand and try to give us the inventory buffer that has been depleted over the course of the last 9 months or so.

是的。我的意思是，我們明年的首要目標是不成為客戶發展的阻礙。有鑑於此，我表示，我們預計明年產能將成長 25%，與我們今年的成長水準大致相同。我們預計還會再這樣做。所以我們相信，我們的資料中心一直處於相當不錯的狀態。但對於客戶而言，我們只想達到個位數的中段產量——個位數中段到高段的產量，這樣，一方面我們可以滿足我們預期的客戶需求，另一方面我們也可以重建庫存緩衝水平，以便應對這些高峰等等。所以我們正在努力落實產能，但我們認為我們將滿足客戶需求，並努力彌補過去 9 個月左右消耗殆盡的庫存緩衝。

In terms of capital, I would just say we'll probably give you more detail on that come January, but George kind of laid out back in May a multiyear view of capital. There wasn't any dramatic changes from kind of where we are now. So obviously, that'll be a function of growth.

關於資本方面，我只能說我們可能會在一月份提供更多細節，但喬治在五月已經大致闡述了多年的資本規劃。情況和現在差不多，並沒有發生什麼劇烈的變化。所以很顯然，這將取決於成長情況。

I would just add one thing to remind everybody is that, in 2019, we made a major shift from spending capital in the memory area to moving that capital over to expand our -- both our 10-nanometer and some 14-nanometer. We continue to add capacity in 14-nanometer and began adding capacity at 7-nanometer as well. So we're very focused on getting the capacity in place that will allow us to take the word shortage out of our quarterly discussions.

我只想補充一點，提醒大家，在 2019 年，我們做出了一個重大轉變，將資金從記憶體領域轉移到擴大我們的 10 奈米和 14 奈米技術。我們繼續增加 14 奈米製程的產能，也開始增加 7 奈米製程的產能。因此，我們正全力以赴地建立相應的能力，以便消除季度討論中詞彙短缺的問題。

Our final question for today then comes from the line of Harlan Sur from JPMorgan.

那麼，我們今天的最後一個問題來自摩根大通的哈蘭‧蘇爾。

Great job on the quarterly execution. Last time we had a cloud and enterprise spending digestion pause was first half of 2017. It's kind of the same setup as this past, right? Similar to 2017, DCG had strong second half growth. And in fact, back in 2017, it kicked off what was a 4- or 5-quarter period of strong spending by your cloud customers. Do you guys get a sense in discussions with your customers that the spending reacceleration is sustainable for the next few quarters? I mean if I look at things like compute workload growth, that continues at a strong pace. Workload themselves are getting more complex. And so just wanted to get your views on sustainability of the strong growth profile in DCG into next year.

季度執行工作做得很好。上一次我們在雲端運算和企業支出消化方面出現停滯是在 2017 年上半年。這跟以往的情況差不多，對吧？與 2017 年類似，DCG 在下半年實現了強勁成長。事實上，早在 2017 年，它就開啟了雲端客戶連續 4 到 5 個季度的強勁支出時期。你們在與客戶的交流中是否感覺到，這種消費支出加速成長的趨勢在未來幾季內是可持續的？我的意思是，如果我看一下計算工作負載的成長情況，就會發現它繼續保持強勁的成長勢頭。工作量本身也變得越來越複雜。因此，我想了解您對DCG強勁成長動能能否持續到明年的看法。

Yes. I think the trends -- the macro trends that we see haven't subsided at all, and that is this insatiable appetite for the creation of data and the need to compute, process, store, move, make that data more relevant. Those macro trends have been very attractive for the long -- for a while, and we expect those to continue.

是的。我認為我們看到的宏觀趨勢絲毫沒有減弱，那就是對資料創造的永不滿足的渴望，以及對運算、處理、儲存、行動資料、使其更具相關性的需求。這些宏觀趨勢長期以來都非常有吸引力——而且我們預計這些趨勢還會繼續下去。

But to your point, the -- our experience with the cloud providers is they go through big buying cycles and then relatively long digestion periods. What we did experience last year was a gangbuster year, but it's been 3 quarters coming into the third quarter where they went through digestions. And what we started to see in the third quarter was, particularly for high-performance compute, start to see them come back into the market to really begin to purchase a little bit more. So how long that cycle lasts is going to be a function of several variables, but their end demand seems to continue to be relatively strong. And therefore, the need to add capacity, we think, will follow their end demand given they've been out of the market a little bit for about 3 quarters now up 'til Q3.

但正如您所說，我們與雲端服務提供者的經驗是，他們會經歷大規模的採購週期，然後是相對較長的消化期。去年我們經歷了輝煌的一年，但進入第三季後，前三個季度他們都經歷了消化過程。我們在第三季開始看到，尤其是在高效能運算領域，他們開始重返市場，真正開始購買更多產品。因此，這個週期能持續多久取決於幾個變量，但他們的最終需求似乎仍然相對強勁。因此，我們認為，鑑於他們已經從第三季開始退出市場大約三個季度了，所以增加產能的需求將取決於他們的最終需求。

Thanks, Harlan. We're going to hand the call back over to Bob for some closing comments.

謝謝你，哈蘭。接下來我們將把電話交還給鮑勃，請他做一些總結發言。

Yes. Look, thanks for joining us. We feel great about the quarter. It's -- we're looking at -- we had a record quarter result, raising our outlook for the full year. The market we see, the trends we see are as big as they've ever been. And we're really focused on continuing to deliver for our customers.

是的。謝謝大家的參與。我們對本季的業績非常滿意。我們看到—我們取得了創紀錄的季度業績，提高了我們對全年業績的預期。我們看到的市場和趨勢，都和以往一樣龐大。我們真正專注於繼續為客戶提供優質服務。

10-nanometer era is now. We're ramping a multitude of products. We have increased confidence in 5-nanometer. And as we mentioned for 7 and 5 getting back to a 2.5-, 2-year cadence is what we're focused on. And we're confident in the future. And you're seeing both in the first 9 months of the year as well as with our higher share buyback that we're putting your money where -- to work to reduce the float because we think there's a disconnect between the intrinsic value of the plan we shared with you back in May and how we're trading. So with our balance sheet, we're taking advantage of that.

10奈米時代已經來臨。我們正在大力推進多種產品的生產。我們對 5 奈米技術的信心增強了。正如我們在第 7 和第 5 節中提到的，我們目前的重點是恢復到 2.5 年或 2 年的節奏。我們對未來充滿信心。在今年前 9 個月以及我們更大規模的股票回購中，您都看到了這一點，我們正在將您的資金投入到該投入的地方——減少流通股，因為我們認為我們在 5 月份與您分享的計劃的內在價值與我們的交易方式之間存在脫節。所以，憑藉我們的資產負債表，我們正在充分利用這一點。

So thanks for joining us. Thanks for your questions. And we'll talk to you soon.

謝謝您的參與。謝謝你的提問。我們很快會再聯絡。

Thanks, Bob and George, and thank you, everyone, for joining the call today. Operator, could you please go ahead and wrap up the call?

謝謝鮑伯和喬治，也謝謝今天參加電話會議的各位。接線生，請您結束通話好嗎？

Certainly. Thank you. And thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.

當然。謝謝。感謝各位女士、先生參加今天的會議。節目到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。再會。