Freshpet Inc (FRPT) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings.

問候。

Welcome to Freshpet's third-quarter 2024 earnings call.

歡迎參加 Freshpet 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

It's now my pleasure to introduce Jeff Sonnek with ICR.

現在我很高興向您介紹 ICR 的 Jeff Sonnek。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning, and welcome to Freshpet's third-quarter 2024 earnings call and webcast.

早安，歡迎參加 Freshpet 2024 年第三季財報電話會議和網路廣播。

On today's call are Billy Cyr, Chief Executive Officer; and Todd Cunfer, Chief Financial Officer.

執行長比利·西爾 (Billy Cyr) 出席了今天的電話會議；和財務長 Todd Cunfer。

Scott Morris, President and Co-Founder, will also be available for Q&A.

總裁兼聯合創始人斯科特莫里斯也將出席問答環節。

Before we begin, please remember that during the course of this call, management may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

在我們開始之前，請記住，在本次電話會議期間，管理層可能會做出 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。

These include statements related to our long-term strategy, 2027 goals and pace in achieving these goals, prospects for growth, timing of capacity expansion, new products and new technology, and 2024 guidance.

其中包括與我們的長期策略、2027 年目標和實現這些目標的步伐、成長前景、產能擴張時間、新產品和新技術以及 2024 年指導相關的聲明。

Words such as anticipate, believe, could, estimate, expect, guidance, intend, may, project, will, or similar conditional expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements.

預期、相信、能夠、估計、期望、指導、打算、可能、預測、意願或類似條件表達等詞語旨在識別前瞻性陳述。

These statements are based on management's current expectations and beliefs, and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in these forward-looking statements, including those associated with such statements.

這些陳述是基於管理階層目前的預期和信念，涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述中所述的結果（包括與此類陳述相關的結果）有重大差異。

Please refer to the company's annual report on Form 10-K filed with the SEC and the company's press release issued today for a detailed discussion of risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made today.

請參閱本公司向 SEC 提交的 10-K 表格年度報告以及本公司今天發布的新聞稿，詳細討論可能導致實際結果與今天做出的任何前瞻性聲明中明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異的風險。

Please note that on today's call, management will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, such as EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA, among others.

請注意，在今天的電話會議上，管理層將提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標，例如 EBITDA 和調整後 EBITDA 等。

While the company believes these non-GAAP financial measures provide useful information for investors, presentation of this information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the financial information presented in accordance with GAAP.

雖然公司認為這些非公認會計原則財務指標為投資者提供了有用的信息，但這些信息的呈現並不旨在被孤立地考慮或作為根據公認會計原則呈現的財務信息的替代品。

Please refer to today's press release for how management defines such non-GAAP measures, why management believes such non-GAAP measures are useful, a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable measures prepared in accordance with GAAP, and limitations associated with such non-GAAP measures.

請參閱今天的新聞稿，了解管理階層如何定義此類非GAAP 衡量標準、為何管理階層認為此類非GAAP 衡量標準有用、非GAAP 財務衡量標準與根據GAAP 制定的最具可比性衡量標準的調節表以及相關限制與此類非公認會計準則措施。

Finally, the company has produced a presentation that contains many of the key metrics that will be discussed on this call.

最後，該公司製作了一份演示文稿，其中包含本次電話會議將討論的許多關鍵指標。

That presentation can be found on the company's investor website.

該演示文稿可以在該公司的投資者網站上找到。

Management's commentary will not specifically walk through the presentation on the call, but rather as a summary of the results and guidance they will discuss today.

管理層的評論不會具體介紹電話會議的演示，而是作為他們今天將討論的結果和指導的摘要。

So with that, I'd like to turn the call over to Billy Cyr, Chief Executive Officer.

因此，我想將電話轉給執行長比利·西爾 (Billy Cyr)。

Billy?

比利？

Thank you, Jeff, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，傑夫，大家早安。

For those of you who are wondering, Jeff was gracious enough to fill in for our VP of Investor Relations, Rachel, while she is on maternity leave.

對於那些想知道的人，傑夫非常慷慨地在雷切爾休產假期間接替了我們的投資者關係副總裁。

Now to the business.

現在開始談生意。

The message I would like you to take away is that we are beginning to establish the kind of consistency and reliability in our manufacturing operations that we have been delivering on the top-line for some time.

我希望您傳達的訊息是，我們正在開始在製造業務中建立一致性和可靠性，我們一段時間以來一直在一線提供這種一致性和可靠性。

That has enabled us to rapidly increase our margins while simultaneously generating the kind of growth you have come to expect from us.

這使我們能夠迅速提高利潤，同時實現您所期望的成長。

As you know, our objective this year was to continue our strong top-line growth, but do it at a rate that would enable us to live within our capacity limits, while strengthening our operating performance and cash generation.

如您所知，我們今年的目標是繼續實現強勁的營收成長，但成長速度應使我們能夠在產能限制內生存，同時加強我們的營運績效和現金產生。

The result would be category-leading growth, outsized improvement in profitability, and more effective cash management.

其結果將是行業領先的成長、獲利能力的大幅提高以及更有效的現金管理。

We describe that as disciplined growth.

我們將其描述為有紀律的增長。

If we do that well, consumers will win, customers will win, and our shareholders will win.

如果我們做得好，消費者就會贏，客戶就會贏，我們的股東也會贏。

And that is what we are delivering.

這就是我們正在提供的。

In Q3, we delivered our 25th consecutive quarter of 25% year-on-year growth, a significant expansion in our adjusted gross margin and adjusted EBITDA margin, and sizable operating cash flow.

第三季度，我們連續第 25 個季度實現 25% 的年增長，調整後毛利率和調整後 EBITDA 利潤率顯著擴大，營運現金流也相當可觀。

In fact, this is the third quarter in a row where our adjusted gross margin exceeded our 2027 target and our sixth consecutive quarter where our logistics cost was better than our long-term target.

事實上，這是我們調整後的毛利率連續第三個季度超過我們的 2027 年目標，也是我們的物流成本連續第六個季度優於我們的長期目標。

And we've generated more than $100 million in operating cash flow so far this year.

今年到目前為止，我們已經產生了超過 1 億美元的營運現金流。

I suspect that many of you are now wondering if or when we are going to adjust our long-term targets to reflect the early achievement of so many of our long-term financial goals.

我懷疑你們中的許多人現在想知道我們是否或何時調整我們的長期目標，以反映我們許多長期財務目標的早期實現。

While we are very encouraged by our progress, we don't want to get ahead of ourselves.

雖然我們對自己的進步感到非常鼓舞，但我們不想超越自己。

We want to see sustained improvement across the full year before we conclude that we can deliver more than what we have already committed.

我們希望看到全年的持續改進，然後我們才能得出比我們已經承諾的更多的成果。

We are also very mindful that we are operating in a dynamic environment and would like a bit more time to see where the current trends, particularly on inflation, settle out.

我們也非常注意，我們是在一個充滿活力的環境中運營，因此希望有更多時間來了解當前的趨勢，特別是通貨膨脹的趨勢。

So this is something we are giving a great deal of thought to in consultation with our Board, but we aren't yet ready to update our long-term targets.

因此，我們正在與董事會協商，認真考慮這個問題，但我們尚未準備好更新我們的長期目標。

I would now like to call out a few key highlights from the quarter.

現在我想談談本季的一些關鍵亮點。

And then Todd will provide a bit more detail on the financial results, and we'll update you on our thinking on guidance.

然後托德將提供有關財務業績的更多詳細信息，我們將向您更新我們對指導的想法。

First, I am very encouraged by the net sales growth we saw in the quarter.

首先，我對本季的淨銷售額成長感到非常鼓舞。

We grew 26%, and virtually, all of it was due to volume growth.

我們成長了 26%，實際上，這一切都是由於銷量成長。

This volume growth was driven by strong household penetration growth, particularly amongst our HIPPOH's.

這一銷售成長是由強勁的家庭滲透率成長推動的，尤其是在我們的 HIPPOH 中。

Overall household penetration growth was up 17% despite lapping a sizable gain in households in the year-ago period, and the HIPPOH growth rate was 24%.

儘管去年同期家庭數量大幅成長，但整體家庭滲透率仍成長了 17%，HIPPOH 成長率為 24%。

Recall, our media investment is more backloaded this year than it was last year.

回想一下，今年我們的媒體投資比去年更多。

So you should expect that household penetration, which is a 52-week measure, will lag our long-term growth rate in the back half of this year due to the change in the media timing.

因此，您應該預期，由於媒體時機的變化，家庭滲透率（52 週的衡量標準）將落後於我們今年下半年的長期成長率。

However, it should reaccelerate in the first half of next year, when we are getting the benefit of this year's second-half media investment in the 52-week measure.

然而，它應該會在明年上半年重新加速，屆時我們將受益於今年下半年 52 週的媒體投資。

We continue to believe that we are well on track to deliver our 2027 target of 20 million households and are increasingly focusing our attention on the 5 million HIPPOHs, who now represent approximately 90% of our revenues.

我們仍然相信，我們正在順利實現 2027 年 2000 萬戶家庭的目標，並且越來越多地將注意力集中在 500 萬 HIPPOH 上，他們現在約占我們收入的 90%。

Second, our team did an outstanding job managing the balance between capacity and demand, allowing us to simultaneously drive strong growth rates and strong operating performance.

其次，我們的團隊在管理產能和需求之間的平衡方面表現出色，使我們能夠同時推動強勁的成長率和強勁的經營業績。

Recall that we chose to limit our first-half media investment to a rate that was below our rate of sales growth so that we could reliably meet demand until our new roll line in NS was up and operating at the end of Q3.

回想一下，我們選擇將上半年的媒體投資限制在低於銷售成長率的水平，以便我們能夠可靠地滿足需求，直到我們在 NS 的新卷材生產線在第三季末建成並投入營運。

That plan worked.

這個計劃奏效了。

We were able to grow 26% in the quarter, but did it with a customer order fill rate of 99% for the quarter.

我們在本季實現了 26% 的成長，但本季的客戶訂單履行率為 99%。

As I've said before, a strong fill rate is a very good indicator of overall operating performance for us.

正如我之前所說，強勁的填充率是我們整體營運績效的一個很好的指標。

And that was definitely true in Q3.

第三季確實如此。

We were able to deliver this strong performance because the reliability of our media model provided a very accurate forecast demand, and our operations team generated strong throughput on our existing production lines and started up the new roll line one week early.

我們之所以能夠取得如此強勁的業績，是因為我們的媒體模型的可靠性提供了非常準確的需求預測，而且我們的營運團隊在現有生產線上產生了強大的吞吐量，並提前一周啟動了新的軋製生產線。

In essence, we were able to thread the needle, i.e., generate strong growth without exceeding our capacity limits and while maintaining exceptional customer service.

從本質上講，我們能夠成功，即在不超出我們的產能限制的情況下實現強勁增長，同時保持卓越的客戶服務。

We expect to apply that same type of robust planning as we bring on new lines over the next few years, carefully managing our media investment and capacity to ensure good customer service, strong net sales growth, and healthy margins.

我們希望在未來幾年推出新產品時採用同樣類型的穩健規劃，仔細管理我們的媒體投資和容量，以確保良好的客戶服務、強勁的淨銷售額成長和健康的利潤率。

Third, the production, quality, and logistics teams in the Freshpet Kitchens continue to drive improved performance, including yield, throughput, and quality costs, while also delivering exceptional customer service at our lowest logistics cost as a percent of net sales ever.

第三，Freshpet Kitchens 的生產、品質和物流團隊繼續推動績效的提高，包括產量、吞吐量和品質成本，同時以有史以來最低的物流成本（佔淨銷售額的百分比）提供卓越的客戶服務。

On a year-over-year basis, the sum total of our input costs, logistics, and quality improved by 790 basis points.

與去年同期相比，我們的投入成本、物流和品質總計提高了 790 個基點。

And that contributed to a 630-basis-point improvement in our adjusted gross margin.

這使得我們的調整後毛利率提高了 630 個基點。

We believe this is the result of the investment we've made in our hourly production workforce and their training, i.e., the Freshpet Academy, the Freshpet Performance Excellence program we began about two years ago, and a more stable external environment.

我們相信，這是我們對每小時生產勞動力及其培訓進行投資的結果，即 Freshpet 學院、我們大約兩年前開始的 Freshpet 卓越績效計劃，以及更穩定的外部環境。

Finally, our customers continue to believe that Freshpet is the future of pet food and continue committing a digital retail space to Freshpet.

最後，我們的客戶仍然相信 Freshpet 是寵物食品的未來，並繼續致力於為 Freshpet 提供數位零售空間。

At the end of the quarter, we had 22% more total distribution points, TDPs, due to the addition of more than 1,000 new stores year to date, more than 750 additional stores with second and third fridges year to date, and a sizable increase in shelf space and retailer-owned fridges.

截至本季末，我們的總分銷點(TDP) 增加了22%，原因是年初至今新增了1,000 多家新店，年初至今新增了750 多家配備第二台和第三台冰箱的門市，而且數量大幅增加貨架空間和零售商擁有的冰箱。

We continue to also see a strong connection between the increased retail visibility and the efficiency of our media investment, as our retail presence amplifies the media investment.

我們也繼續看到，零售知名度的提高與媒體投資效率之間存在密切聯繫，因為我們的零售業務擴大了媒體投資。

This is visible in our customer acquisition cost, CAC, which continues to be in line with our long-term targets and is helping us drive a strong return on our advertising investment.

這在我們的客戶獲取成本 CAC 中可見一斑，它繼續符合我們的長期目標，並幫助我們獲得豐厚的廣告投資回報。

Now I'll provide an update on KPIs we track for our main and more plans: mainstream, main meal, more profitable plans.

現在，我將提供我們追蹤的主要計劃和更多計劃的 KPI 的最新資訊：主流計劃、主餐計劃、更有利可圖的計劃。

Focusing on the idea of mainstream, Freshpet is becoming increasingly mainstream, but still has a long runway for growth.

著眼於主流理念，Freshpet 正在變得越來越主流，但仍有很長的成長道路。

According to Nielsen omnichannel data, which includes e-commerce and direct-to-consumer, as of September 28, 2024, total US pet food is a $54 billion category.

根據尼爾森全通路數據（包括電子商務和直接面向消費者），截至 2024 年 9 月 28 日，美國寵物食品總額為 540 億美元。

We only have a 3.2% market share within the $37 billion dog food segment, which is the majority of our business today.

在價值 370 億美元的狗糧領域，我們只佔有 3.2% 的市場份額，而這正是我們今天業務的主要部分。

Within the fresh frozen subcategory in measured channels, Freshpet has a 96% market share.

在已測通路的生鮮冷凍子類別中，Freshpet擁有96%的市佔率。

Fresh continues to outperform the broader pet food category, and many retailers believe it is the future of pet food.

生鮮食品的表現持續優於更廣泛的寵物食品類別，許多零售商認為這是寵物食品的未來。

As a result, Freshpet now commands 66% ACV in Nielsen XAOC.

因此，Freshpet 現在在 Nielsen XAOC 中的 ACV 為 66%。

And we continue to add distribution breadth and depth with second and third fridges.

我們繼續增加第二台和第三台冰箱的分銷廣度和深度。

Our household penetration gains also demonstrate that we are well on our way to making Freshpet more mainstream.

我們家庭滲透率的提高也表明我們正在努力使 Freshpet 變得更加主流。

As I mentioned earlier, household penetration is on track to meet our target of 20 million households by 2027.

正如我之前提到的，家庭滲透率有望實現 2027 年達到 2,000 萬個家庭的目標。

But more importantly, the complexion of the households underpinning our growth continues to improve.

但更重要的是，支撐我們成長的家庭狀況持續改善。

Our HIPPOHs are growing 24% versus the prior-year period, surpassing our broader household growth of 17%.

我們的 HIPPOH 與去年同期相比成長了 24%，超過了我們更廣泛的家庭 17% 的成長。

We think the combination of retail support and our ability to drive household penetration is a clear indication that Freshpet is leading the way towards making fresh pet food a mainstream idea.

我們認為，零售支援與我們推動家庭滲透的能力相結合，清楚地表明 Freshpet 正在引領新鮮寵物食品成為主流理念的道路。

Our HIPPOH penetration also extends to the main meal part of the strategy.

我們的 HIPPOH 滲透率也延伸到了這個策略的主餐部分。

Currently, 39% of Freshpet users are HIPPOHs, and they represented 90% of our sales in the third quarter.

目前，39% 的 Freshpet 用戶是 HIPPOH，他們占我們第三季銷售額的 90%。

Of those users, about 325,000 or less than 3% of our total users buy more than $1,000 of Freshpet per year.

在這些用戶中，約有 32.5 萬人（佔用戶總數的不到 3%）每年購買 Freshpet 的金額超過 1,000 美元。

And this group grew 23% over the past year.

這一群體在過去一年中增長了 23%。

They now represent approximately 27% of our business.

他們現在約占我們業務的 27%。

We are increasingly focusing our attention on this audience and trying to create a much larger cohort of users who look like they do.

我們越來越多地將注意力集中在這些受眾上，並試圖創建一個更大的與他們相似的用戶群體。

Part of our strategy for making Freshpet into a more of a main meal item is to offer a range of items that meet the broadest range of consumer needs.

我們讓 Freshpet 成為更多主餐產品的策略之一是提供一系列滿足最廣泛消費者需求的產品。

This year, we've launched several new items to do that, and they are doing very well.

今年，我們推出了幾款新產品來做到這一點，而且它們做得非常好。

In particular, our large-dog product, while still in limited distribution, has grown quite nicely and is becoming a very successful item for us as it broadens the appeal of Freshpet into larger dogs.

特別是，我們的大型犬產品雖然仍處於有限的分銷範圍，但已經發展得相當不錯，並且正在成為我們非常成功的產品，因為它擴大了 Freshpet 對大型犬的吸引力。

Similarly, our multipacks have done very well.

同樣，我們的合裝包也表現出色。

Early next year, we will be launching a product for seniors, further broadening Freshpet's appeal.

明年初，我們將推出一款針對老年人的產品，進一步擴大 Freshpet 的吸引力。

Adding second and third fridges enables greater distribution of our wider assortment.

添加第二台和第三台冰箱可以更好地分配我們更廣泛的品種。

Based on Total US Pet Retail Plus data from Nielsen, we currently have an average of 20.5 SKUs per point of distribution, up from 18.0 SKUs one year ago.

根據尼爾森的 Total US Pet Retail Plus 數據，我們目前每個分銷點平均有 20.5 個 SKU，高於一年前的 18.0 個 SKU。

Now to the more part of main and more, more profitable.

現在以更多的部分為主，更多，更有利可圖。

We had another strong quarter of margin improvement.

我們的利潤率又一個強勁的季度改善。

Adjusted gross margin improved 60 basis points versus the strong results we posted in Q2 to 46.5%, and we ended the third quarter with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 17.2%.

與第二季公佈的強勁業績相比，調整後毛利率提高了 60 個基點，達到 46.5%，第三季末調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 17.2%。

As I mentioned earlier, the margin improvement came in our key focus areas of quality, input costs, and logistics.

正如我之前提到的，利潤率的提高來自於我們的品質、投入成本和物流等關鍵領域。

It is becoming increasingly apparent that the improved organizational capability, improved analytics systems, and intense focus on those drivers of profit improvement are not only working but generating better results than we had expected and sooner than we had anticipated.

越來越明顯的是，改進的組織能力、改進的分析系統以及對利潤改善驅動因素的高度關注不僅發揮了作用，而且產生了比我們預期更好、比我們預期更快的結果。

We are very pleased with this progress, but also believe there is significant upside that we can deliver over time.

我們對這一進展感到非常滿意，但也相信隨著時間的推移，我們可以實現顯著的優勢。

I would also like to give you an update on our efforts to expand our capacity.

我還想向您介紹我們為擴大產能所做的努力的最新情況。

As a reminder, we continue to focus our capacity expansion plans on three key drivers of improved capital efficiency.

提醒一下，我們繼續將產能擴張計畫的重點放在提高資本效率的三個關鍵驅動因素。

They are: one, maximizing the throughput of our existing lines; two, maximizing the capacity of our three existing sites; and three, developing and implementing new technologies that generate more throughput per line.

它們是：第一，最大化我們現有線路的吞吐量；第二，最大限度地提高我們三個現有站點的容量；第三，開發和實施新技術，以提高每條生產線的吞吐量。

We are making good progress against all three parts of that strategy.

我們在該戰略的所有三個部分方面都取得了良好進展。

In Q3, we achieved another milestone with the startup of the fourth line in Ennis, a roll line, giving us two bag lines and two roll lines at that site.

在第三季度，我們實現了另一個里程碑，在恩尼斯啟動了第四條生產線，即一條軋製生產線，為我們在該地點提供了兩條袋子生產線和兩條軋製生產線。

That fourth line started up one week early, under budget, and ramped up faster than we had projected.

第四條生產線提前一周啟動，低於預算，成長速度比我們預期的要快。

We have also largely completed the installation of the fifth line, which will be our third roll line in NS.

我們也基本上完成了第五條生產線的安裝，這將是我們在新斯科細亞省的第三條軋製線。

Because it was more efficient to install two roll lines at the same time in the new space.

因為在新空間同時安裝兩條軋製線效率較高。

That fifth line will be commissioned in Q4.

第五條生產線將於第四季投入使用。

And between those two new roll lines, we will have enough rolls capacity to last well into 2026 once we have fully staffed those lines.

在這兩條新的軋製生產線上，一旦我們為這些生產線配備了足夠的人員，我們將擁有足夠的軋製能力，可以持續到 2026 年。

We are in the final stages of installing our next bag line in Kitchen South and expect that to start up in late Q1 of next year.

我們正處於在廚房南安裝下一條袋子生產線的最後階段，預計將於明年第一季末啟動。

We have also added staffing at Kitchen South on the existing lines so that we'll have adequate bag capacity for the balance of '24 and into 2025.

我們還在現有的生產線上增加了 Kitchen South 的工作人員，以便我們能夠在 24 年的剩餘時間內和 2025 年擁有足夠的行李容量。

In Bethlehem, the team is focused on increasing capacity utilization or OEE, on our existing lines.

在伯利恆，團隊專注於提高現有生產線的產能利用率或 OEE。

Our Freshpet Performance Excellence program has driven sizable gains in throughput, yield, and quality since it was launched almost two years ago.

自兩年前推出以來，我們的 Freshpet 卓越績效計劃已在吞吐量、產量和品質方面帶來了巨大的進步。

And we believe that investment has unlocked a sizable amount of free capacity.

我們相信投資已經釋放了大量的可用產能。

We believe there is significant upside remaining and are increasing the resources we devote to that effort and reapplying the program to NS.

我們相信還有很大的上升空間，並且正在增加我們投入這項工作的資源，並將該計劃重新應用於 NS。

The Bethlehem team is also in the process of remodeling some dry storage space in Kitchens 2 to accommodate a production line that uses the new technology for our bag products.

Bethlehem 團隊也正在改造 Kitchens 2 的一些乾燥儲存空間，以容納使用新技術生產袋產品的生產線。

That line is on track for startup in the second half of 2025.

該線路預計將於 2025 年下半年啟動。

In summary, I think we are making good progress at proving that we can reliably deliver improved operating performance and strong growth simultaneously.

總而言之，我認為我們在證明我們能夠可靠地同時實現改善的經營業績和強勁成長方面取得了良好進展。

This disciplined growth is the result of our strengthened organizational capability, improved analytics systems, and enhanced focus that has enabled us to generate outsized gains in productivity and profitability.

這種規律的成長是我們加強組織能力、改善分析系統和加強關注的結果，使我們能夠在生產力和獲利能力方面取得巨大的進步。

We are increasingly confident that we can sustain this type of performance and deliver the levels of shareholder returns that we believe the proprietary Freshpet business model is capable of generating.

我們越來越有信心能夠維持這種業績並提供我們認為專有的 Freshpet 業務模式能夠產生的股東回報水準。

Now let me turn it over to Todd to walk through the details of the Q3 results and our updated guidance.

現在讓我將其交給托德，詳細介紹第三季的結果和我們更新的指導。

Todd?

托德？

Thank you, Billy, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，比利，大家早安。

As Billy mentioned, we are very pleased with the third-quarter results, particularly our ability to deliver a profit improvement.

正如比利所提到的，我們對第三季的業績非常滿意，特別是我們實現利潤改善的能力。

Now I'll give you some more color on our financials and updated guidance for the year.

現在，我將向您介紹我們今年的財務狀況和最新指導。

Third-quarter net sales were $253.4 million, up 26% year over year.

第三季淨銷售額為 2.534 億美元，年增 26%。

Nielsen-measured dollar growth was 23% versus the prior-year period, with broad-based consumption growth across channels.

尼爾森測算的美元成長率與去年同期相比成長了 23%，各通路的消費成長基礎廣泛。

We saw a 24% growth in XAOC, 22% in US food, 11% growth in pet specialty, and over 70% growth in the unmeasured channel.

我們看到 XAOC 成長了 24%，美國食品成長了 22%，寵物專業成長了 11%，未測量通路成長了 70% 以上。

Third-quarter adjusted gross margin was 46.5%, up 630 basis points year over year.

第三季調整後毛利率為46.5%，較去年成長630個基點。

This was driven by improvements in input costs, yield, throughput, and quality costs.

這是由投入成本、產量、吞吐量和品質成本的改善所推動的。

Specifically, input costs as a percent of net sales improved 450 basis points versus a year ago due to better yields and lower commodity costs.

具體而言，由於產量提高和商品成本降低，投入成本佔淨銷售額的百分比比一年前提高了 450 個基點。

And quality costs improved by 220 basis points versus a year ago.

品質成本比一年前提高了 220 個基點。

We do have a timing benefit in our quality costs that will reverse in Q4, but it was a strong quarter, nonetheless.

我們的品質成本確實有一個時間優勢，這種優勢將在第四季度逆轉，但儘管如此，這仍然是一個強勁的季度。

Third-quarter adjusted SG&A was 29.3% of net sales compared to 28.6% in the prior-year period.

第三季調整後的 SG&A 佔淨銷售額的 29.3%，去年同期為 28.6%。

We spent 10.8% of net sales on media in the quarter, up from 9.5% of net sales in the prior-year period.

本季我們將 10.8% 的淨銷售額用於媒體，高於去年同期的 9.5%。

Total media investment was up 43% year over year.

媒體總投資年增 43%。

Recall our media plan was less front-loaded this year than in years past, so that we could manage our growth to live within our capacity limits.

回想一下，我們今年的媒體計畫比往年少一些，因此我們可以在容量限制內管理我們的成長。

As a result, our media investment in the back half of 2024 will grow significantly faster than our sales will grow.

因此，我們在 2024 年下半年的媒體投資成長速度將明顯快於我們的銷售額成長速度。

And that will position us for a faster start in 2025.

這將使我們能夠在 2025 年更快地起步。

Logistics costs continued to improve and were 5.6% of net sales in the second quarter, a decrease of 120 basis points compared to the prior-year period.

物流成本持續改善，第二季佔淨銷售額的5.6%，較去年同期下降120個基點。

The majority of the improvement was due to strategic actions we have taken to increase fill rates, reduced miles driven by increasing the number of states served by our second distribution center, and negotiations with various carriers, with the remainder being more macro driven with more favorable lane rates and lower diesel costs.

大部分改進歸功於我們為提高填充率而採取的戰略行動、通過增加第二個配送中心所服務的州數量來減少行駛里程以及與各個承運商的談判，其餘部分則更加宏觀驅動，並提供更優惠的條件。

Other SG&A, which was 13% of net sales, increased 60 basis points, driven by higher incentive compensation.

在更高的激勵薪酬的推動下，其他 SG&A 佔淨銷售額的 13%，增加了 60 個基點。

Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $43.5 million or 17.2% of net sales compared to $23.2 million or 11.6% of net sales in the prior-year period.

第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 4,350 萬美元，佔淨銷售額的 17.2%，而去年同期為 2,320 萬美元，佔淨銷售額的 11.6%。

This improvement was primarily driven by higher gross margin, as well as improved logistics costs, partially offset by higher media investment and incentive comp.

這一改善主要是由於毛利率的提高以及物流成本的提高所推動的，但部分被媒體投資和激勵補償的增加所抵消。

Capital spending in the third quarter was $34 million.

第三季的資本支出為 3,400 萬美元。

This was lower than expected due to the timing of projects and payments.

由於項目和付款的時間安排，這一數字低於預期。

We expect a much higher rate of spending in the fourth quarter.

我們預計第四季的支出率會更高。

However, we are lowering the estimate of capital spending this year due to the timing of projects.

然而，由於專案的時間安排，我們降低了今年的資本支出估計。

We now expect CapEx this year to be approximately $180 million versus the previous guidance of $200 million.

我們現在預計今年的資本支出約為 1.8 億美元，而先前的指引為 2 億美元。

Operating cash flow in the third quarter was $56.1 million, and we had cash on hand of $274.6 million at the end of the quarter.

第三季的營運現金流為 5,610 萬美元，季末我們手頭現金為 2.746 億美元。

We continue to believe that we have adequate cash to fully fund our growth through 2025, and we will be free cash flow positive in 2026.

我們仍然相信，我們有足夠的現金來為 2025 年之前的成長提供充足的資金，並且我們將在 2026 年實現正自由現金流。

Our strong improvement in adjusted EBITDA this year also makes it unlikely we will need any additional capital.

今年調整後 EBITDA 的強勁改善也使得我們不太可能需要任何額外資本。

We generated $11.9 million in net income in the third quarter, bringing our year-to-date net income to $28.8 million.

第三季我們的淨利潤為 1,190 萬美元，使年初至今的淨利潤達到 2,880 萬美元。

Now turning to guidance for 2024.

現在轉向 2024 年指導。

We are updating our outlook to reflect our outperformance in the third quarter, as well as our conviction in our ability to execute in the final quarter of the year.

我們正在更新我們的展望，以反映我們在第三季度的優異表現，以及我們對今年最後季度執行能力的信心。

We are raising our net sales guidance from at least $965 million to approximately $975 million or growth of around 27%.

我們將淨銷售額指引從至少 9.65 億美元提高到約 9.75 億美元，即成長 27% 左右。

We are able to do this because of the significant improvements in our operating efficiency and the strong startup of the new roll line in Ennis.

我們之所以能夠做到這一點，是因為我們的營運效率顯著提高，恩尼斯新軋製線的強勁啟動。

Collectively, these efforts will allow us to sell a bit more this year than we had originally projected and still maintained strong customer service.

總的來說，這些努力將使我們今年的銷售量比最初預計的要多一些，並且仍然保持強大的客戶服務。

We are also keeping in mind the capacity needed to support next year's growth and do not want to get too far ahead of our original plans.

我們也牢記支持明年成長所需的產能，並且不希望超出我們最初的計劃太多。

As far as cadence, we continue to expect net sales to have sequentially lower percentage growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, as the lower first-half media spending will result in slower growth in the second half, something that we deliberately did to manage our growth to live within our capacity limits.

就節奏而言，我們繼續預計 2024 年第四季淨銷售額成長率將環比下降，因為上半年媒體支出較低將導致下半年成長放緩，這是我們故意這樣做的成長以適應我們的能力限制。

In our business, the first-half media investment really dictates the demand we will have in the second half of the year.

在我們的業務中，上半年的媒體投入實際上決定了我們下半年的需求。

And the second-half media investment will drive the demand we experienced in the first half of next year.

下半年的媒體投資將推動我們明年上半年的需求。

For this reason, our second-half media investment will be significantly larger than the investment we made in the previous year.

因此，我們下半年的媒體投入將明顯大於去年的投入。

We are expecting second-half 2024 media investment to be more than 50% larger than in the comparable prior-year period.

我們預計 2024 年下半年媒體投資將比去年同期增加 50% 以上。

For adjusted EBITDA, we are raising guidance from at least $140 million to at least $155 million to reflect the over-delivery in Q3.

對於調整後的 EBITDA，我們將指引值從至少 1.4 億美元提高到至少 1.55 億美元，以反映第三季的超額交付。

We now expect the gross -- adjusted gross margin to expand by approximately 600 basis points for the full year compared to 500 basis points previously.

我們現在預計全年調整後毛利率將成長約 600 個基點，而先前為 500 個基點。

Capital expenditures are now projected to be approximately $180 million compared to approximately $200 million previously, to support the installation of capacity to meet demand in 2025.

目前預計資本支出約 1.8 億美元，之前約為 2 億美元，用於支援產能建設以滿足 2025 年的需求。

The reduction is due to the timing of certain expansion projects; some of that reduction will push spending into 2025.

減少的原因是某些擴建工程的時間安排；其中部分削減將把支出推遲到 2025 年。

In summary, the third-quarter results have continued to build our confidence in our ability to deliver our long-term financial goals.

總之，第三季的業績持續增強了我們對實現長期財務目標的信心。

We are operating more effectively and more efficiently.

我們的營運更加有效、更有效率。

And you can see that up and down the P&L and in the way we show up to our customers and consumers.

您可以從損益表的上下以及我們向客戶和消費者展示的方式中看到這一點。

We believe that is the result of our investment capacity and organizational capabilities as they are now delivering the scale benefits we believe are possible in the Freshpet business model.

我們相信這是我們的投資能力和組織能力的結果，因為它們現在正在提供我們認為 Freshpet 商業模式可能實現的規模效益。

That concludes our overview.

我們的概述到此結束。

We will now be glad to answer your questions.

我們現在很高興回答您的問題。

Operator?

操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Mark Astrachan, Stifel.

（操作員說明）Mark Astrachan，Stifel。

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks and good morning, everybody.

謝謝大家，早安。

Obviously, really, really good results here in the quarter and the guidance.

顯然，本季的業績和指導非常非常好。

So maybe taking a bit of a different tack, I wanted to ask about expansion of the business from a top-line standpoint in kind of the less focused areas.

因此，也許採取一些不同的策略，我想從頂線的角度詢問業務在不太集中的領域的擴張。

So I've seen some things about looking at expanding the US D2C business beyond a test.

因此，我看到了一些關於考慮將美國 D2C 業務擴展到測試之外的事情。

It looks like there could be some incremental news, potentially, at some point there.

看起來在某個時候可能會有一些增量新聞。

So maybe talk a bit about kind of efforts in that space, what you see is the opportunity path to success kind of what you've learned so far.

因此，也許可以談談在該領域所做的努力，您所看到的是您迄今為止所學到的通往成功的機會之路。

And then looking outside the US, in particular Europe, also, it seems like there's some efforts there around accelerating or refocusing on that business.

然後看看美國以外的地區，特別是歐洲，似乎也有一些圍繞加速或重新關注該業務的努力。

I think there's some kind of starts and stops in focus there.

我認為那裡有某種開始和停止的焦點。

So maybe talk a bit about those efforts.

所以也許可以談談這些努力。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

Mark, this is Billy.

馬克，這是比利。

I'll take the second part of your question, and Scott will take the first part of your question.

我將回答你問題的第二部分，斯科特將回答你問題的第一部分。

Recall, at the beginning of this year, we said to folks that we felt really good about the European business and the business model that was there.

回想一下，今年年初，我們對人們說，我們對歐洲業務和那裡的商業模式感覺非常好。

But we didn't feel very good about the reliability of the supply chain.

但我們對供應鏈的可靠性感覺不太好。

So we endeavor to work on ways to create a more reliable supply chain in Europe before we make any decision about investing any further in that market.

因此，在我們做出進一步投資該市場的決定之前，我們會努力研究在歐洲創建更可靠的供應鏈的方法。

Those tests are underway.

這些測試正在進行中。

We feel very good about the progress we're making.

我們對所取得的進展感到非常滿意。

But there's no conclusion yet, no definitive plan to do anything more than what we're already doing today.

但目前還沒有結論，除了我們今天已經在做的事情之外，還沒有明確的計劃去做更多的事情。

We like the consumer dynamics there.

我們喜歡那裡的消費者動態。

We think the Freshpet business has long-term potential there.

我們認為 Freshpet 業務在那裡具有長期潛力。

But we want to make sure we get it right when we actually do it.

但我們希望確保在實際做的時候我們做對了。

So at this point, we're still in the testing and validation phase, particularly on the supply chain side of it.

因此，目前我們仍處於測試和驗證階段，特別是在供應鏈方面。

Turn it to Scott to tell you a little bit about the D2C side of things.

請讓 Scott 來告訴您一些關於 D2C 方面的事情。

Hey, Mark.

嘿，馬克。

So look, the way we think about e-commerce -- I think you know it pretty well.

所以，看看我們對電子商務的看法——我想你非常了解。

But basically, the majority of what we consider e-commerce is click and collect for us.

但基本上，我們認為電子商務的大部分內容都是點擊提貨。

It's about -- that's like around 60% of our total.

大約占我們總數的 60% 左右。

And the vast majority of what we're seeing is about 87% is coming from our fridge network.

我們看到的絕大多數（約 87%）來自我們的冰箱網路。

So that's really where the majority of it is.

所以這確實是大部分內容所在。

Now we are always doing a lot of -- we know there's a lot of opportunity for us to open up and make sure that we're giving people other opportunities to purchase from us in different ways.

現在我們一直在做很多事情——我們知道我們有很多機會開放並確保我們為人們提供其他機會以不同的方式從我們這裡購買。

So we're always continuing to test.

所以我們一直在繼續測試。

We have opened up our D2C just a little bit, but tested a little bit of expansion, understand how it's working.

我們已經開放了一點 D2C，但測試了一點擴展，了解它是如何工作的。

But right now, this is something that, I think, it's in a test-and-learn phase, a test-and-learn mode, similar to what Billy was talking about as in Europe, especially.

但現在，我認為，這正處於測試和學習階段，測試和學習模式，類似於比利在歐洲所說的，特別是。

We have all these places where we're kind of planting seeds and understanding how those models work, how we're investing the returns that we're getting on them.

我們在所有這些地方都在埋下種子，了解這些模型是如何運作的，以及我們如何投資我們所獲得的回報。

But right now, these are very small pieces of our business at this point.

但目前，這些只是我們業務的一小部分。

And what we're doing is, as we learn enough and we feel confident, those are places that we potentially invest in and see if we can drive well above our kind of standard growth rate of, call it, around 25%.

我們正在做的是，當我們了解得足夠多並且我們充滿信心時，我們可能會在這些領域進行投資，看看我們是否能夠推動遠高於我們的標準成長率（即 25% 左右）。

Ken Goldman, JPMorgan.

肯‧戈德曼，摩根大通。

Hi, good morning, and thank you.

你好，早安，謝謝你。

I wanted to ask on gross margin.

我想問毛利率。

The commentary is now being focused on consistent performance after the, obviously, excellent improvement in that gross margin rate.

現在，評論的焦點集中在毛利率明顯出色改善之後的持續表現。

How do we think of the comment about consistent performance, which I think some people might interpret sort of as, say, it'll be kind of flattish from here?

我們如何看待有關一致表現的評論，我認為有些人可能會將其解釋為，比如說，從這裡開始會有點平淡？

In light of the prior comments that you're looking at new technology to help with throughput and efficiency, maybe you have that new technology coming in later next year, it sounds like.

根據先前的評論，您正在尋找新技術來幫助提高吞吐量和效率，聽起來也許您會在明年稍後推出這項新技術。

So I just kind of wanted to balance those comments and kind of get a general sense of how you see the gross margin path ahead.

所以我只是想平衡這些評論，並大致了解您如何看待未來的毛利率路徑。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

Hey, Ken.

嘿，肯。

It's Todd.

是托德。

So look, we're obviously thrilled with performance this year, hitting year to date almost 46%.

所以看，我們顯然對今年的表現感到興奮，年初至今已達到近 46%。

And that's our guide for the year.

這就是我們今年的指南。

So we think we'll have another solid quarter in Q4.

因此，我們認為第四季將有另一個穩定的季度。

Clearly, we do not anticipate that's the end.

顯然，我們並不認為這就是結局。

We're obviously ahead of our long-term target of 45%.

我們明顯領先 45% 的長期目標。

So that's fantastic that we're three years ahead of schedule.

所以我們比計劃提前三年真是太棒了。

But we still think we have tons and tons of opportunities.

但我們仍然認為我們有無數的機會。

What that path exactly looks like over the next couple of years, I think, we'll talk more at year-end.

我認為，未來幾年這條道路到底是什麼樣子，我們將在年底進行更多討論。

We'll be at CAGNY, so we can kind of explain that in a little more -- a little bit more depth.

我們將在 CAGNY，因此我們可以更深入地解釋這一點。

But obviously, as we talk about all the time, there's three areas of focus here where we think each of them still has upside.

但顯然，正如我們一直在談論的那樣，這裡有三個重點領域，我們認為每個領域仍然都有優勢。

One is getting more efficiency out of the lines that we have.

一是提高現有生產線的效率。

We made great progress, particularly in Bethlehem, where we got a lot more work in Ennis to go.

我們取得了很大的進展，特別是在伯利恆，我們在恩尼斯還有很多工作要做。

And we've seen some positive signs in the last couple of months in Ennis and feel good about the future there.

過去幾個月我們在恩尼斯看到了一些積極的跡象，並對那裡的未來感到樂觀。

It's getting more capacity out of all the facilities that we have.

我們擁有的所有設施的容量正在增加。

So we're going to get -- we're going to use every square inch to make sure we have the right capital efficiency there and then, as you mentioned, new technologies.

因此，我們將利用每一寸土地來確保我們擁有適當的資本效率，然後，正如您所提到的，新技術。

The line should come up at the end of next year.

該線路應該會在明年年底建成。

So it's going to be early days, and we won't know exactly kind of where we are until the end of next year.

所以現在還為時過早，直到明年年底我們才能確切知道我們的情況。

We're optimistic.

我們很樂觀。

We think we have something that could be very, very interesting.

我們認為我們有一些非常非常有趣的東西。

But that's going to take a couple of years to play out.

但這需要幾年時間才能發揮作用。

So in summary, look, we're going to hit around 46% for the year, which, again, is terrific.

總而言之，我們今年的成長率將達到 46% 左右，這再次是非常棒的。

We're not stopping there.

我們不會就此止步。

We think there's significant more upside to come.

我們認為未來還會有更大的上升空間。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then for a follow-up, thinking about next year, I realize it's too early for specific numbers.

然後對於後續行動，考慮明年，我意​​識到現在給出具體數字還為時過早。

You have talked a little bit about the cadence just in terms of how you expect the second half of '24 media to kind of influence the first half of '25.

您已經就節奏進行了一些討論，只是就您預計 24 年下半年媒體如何影響 25 年上半年而言。

And just trying to get a sense, are there any other kind of tailwinds, headwinds, we should be thinking about right now?

只是想了解一下，我們現在應該考慮是否有其他類型的順風、逆風？

You did talk about inflation a little bit or at least mention the word.

您確實談到了通貨膨脹，或至少提到了這個詞。

Wanted to get a little bit of color there, if you could, at this time.

如果可以的話，現在想在那裡得到一點顏色。

Any kind of insight that you're ready to provide, I'm sure, would be appreciated.

我相信，如果您願意提供任何見解，我們將不勝感激。

Yeah.

是的。

So look, we're still early days for '25 planning.

所以看，我們的 25 規劃還處於早期階段。

Everything we're seeing right now in the commodity bucket -- and again, it's still too early.

我們現在在商品桶中看到的一切——再說一次，現在還為時過早。

But I'll just say it's looking kind of flattish right now.

但我只想說現在看起來有點平淡。

So -- well as you know, we kind of lock in a lot of our commodities kind of in the December time period, particularly our proteins.

所以，如你所知，我們在 12 月期間鎖定了許多商品，尤其是蛋白質。

So we're getting closer to that period.

所以我們離那個時期越來越近了。

We're obviously talking with people every week on that.

顯然我們每週都會與人們討論這個問題。

Again, it feels kind of flattish, but that could change a lot in the next month or two.

再次，感覺有點平淡，但在接下來的一兩個月內可能會發生很大變化。

So no other big updates, but we're not seeing any surprises right now.

所以沒有其他重大更新，但我們現在沒有看到任何驚喜。

Rupesh Parikh, Oppenheimer & Company.

魯佩什·帕里克 (Rupesh Parikh)，奧本海默公司。

Good morning.

早安.

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

So maybe two macro questions for me.

也許對我來說有兩個宏觀問題。

So I just want to get your latest thoughts on the pet category, where you're seeing from -- on the pet adoption side.

所以我只想了解您對寵物類別的最新想法，以及您從寵物收養方面看到的情況。

And then your business continues to see tremendous momentum.

然後您的業務將繼續呈現巨大的發展勢頭。

So just curious if you're seeing any shifts in consumer behavior.

所以只是好奇您是否看到消費者行為有任何變化。

Hey, Rupesh, Scott.

嘿，魯佩什，斯科特。

So on the pet category, basically, what we're seeing is, look, in traditional brick-and-mortar, it's not doing as well from a growth standpoint as they have historically.

因此，在寵物類別上，基本上，我們看到的是，在傳統的實體店中，從成長的角度來看，它的表現並不像歷史上那麼好。

There's definitely a little bit of softness there.

那裡肯定有一點柔軟。

But it's in the kind of a couple of points down versus prior periods, et cetera.

但與之前的時期相比，它下降了幾個百分點，等等。

But remember, there was a ton of expansion for a while.

但請記住，有一段時間有大量的擴張。

Where we are seeing a lot of that growth is definitely some more and more of it is coming from online.

我們看到，這種成長的很大一部分肯定是來自線上。

So if you look at kind of any type of omnichannel piece, you're seeing like still a couple of points of growth.

因此，如果您關注任何類型的全通路產品，您會發現仍然有幾個增長點。

The long-term algorithm that I've always used for the category is you're seeing kind of 2% to 4% overall pet category growth.

我一直用於該類別的長期演算法是，您會看到寵物類別的整體成長率為 2% 到 4%。

You might not see it within six months or a year, but that's typically what you see.

您可能不會在六個月或一年內看到它，但這通常是您看到的。

And that's what we're seeing right now.

這就是我們現在所看到的。

We're seeing around like a 3% growth if you look at everything, like omnichannel.

如果你觀察一切，例如全通路，我們會看到大約 3% 的成長。

From an adoption standpoint, look, these things kind of go up and down and in waves.

從採用的角度來看，這些事情有點起起落落，一波又一波。

We think, from everything we're seeing, it's come back, and it's at a more consistent pace.

我們認為，從我們所看到的一切來看，它已經回來了，而且速度更加一致。

There is definitely some trends that are starting to develop around dog size again.

肯定有一些關於狗的尺寸再次開始發展的趨勢。

They -- again, they come and go.

他們——再一次，他們來了又走。

We're starting to see a little bit more towards smaller and medium-sized dogs again -- again, just slightly.

我們又開始看到更多的小型和中型狗——同樣，只是稍微多一點。

We're seeing more and more of those dogs kind of adopted and in consumers' homes a bit more.

我們看到越來越多的狗被收養，並且越來越多地出現在消費者家裡。

That's actually a good thing for us.

這對我們來說實際上是一件好事。

If you look at where we typically over-index, it's typically with people with smaller and medium-sized dogs.

如果你看看我們通常過度索引的地方，通常是那些養中小型狗的人。

We don't do quite as well with large dogs, although we're making a lot of progress with our large -- new large dog product to continue to kind of come out of the gate and do really, really well.

儘管我們在大型犬新產品方面取得了很大進展，但我們在大型犬方面做得不好，並且繼續表現得非常非常好。

Robert Moskow, TD Cowen.

羅伯特·莫斯科，TD·考恩。

Hi, congrats again, and a couple of questions.

你好，再次恭喜你，還有幾個問題。

I think the target for sales is like close to $2 billion -- it's less than that but -- for 2027.

我認為 2027 年的銷售目標接近 20 億美元——雖然比這個數字少一些。

And as you're evaluating -- revising your long-term guide, are you evaluating like introducing another time series like beyond 2027?

當您正在評估 - 修改您的長期指南時，您是否正在評估類似引入 2027 年後的另一個時間序列？

Is that part of the decision-making that you're doing?

這是您正在做的決策的一部分嗎？

And would that also entail spending to expand your footprint beyond NS and beyond what you have in Pennsylvania?

這是否還需要花錢將您的足跡擴展到國民服役之外以及賓州之外？

And then a follow-up, please.

請跟進。

Yeah, Rob.

是的，羅布。

We haven't made a decision on what we'll look at for updating guidance if we do that sometime next year.

我們還沒有決定如果我們明年某個時候更新指南，我們將考慮哪些內容來更新指南。

There's -- everything has got to be taken a look at.

一切都必須被審視。

But one of the things that we do spend a lot of time thinking about is capacity planning, which is embedded in how we think about the long-term guidance and also a part of your question.

但我們確實花了很多時間思考的事情之一是容量規劃，它包含在我們對長期指導的思考中，也是您問題的一部分。

But I would remind you that within our existing footprint of the three sites that we have today, we have capacity to get us to the $2 billion in net sales.

但我要提醒您的是，在我們現有的三個站點的覆蓋範圍內，我們有能力實現 20 億美元的淨銷售額。

Our guide is for $1.8 billion, but you need to have a run rate that's ahead of that when you get there.

我們的指導價是 18 億美元，但當你到達那裡時，你需要有一個領先的運行率。

We can get well north of $2 billion by -- with the existing footprint.

憑藉現有的足跡，我們可以實現 20 億美元以上的目標。

So any decision on expanding the footprint beyond where we are would influence periods that would go well beyond 2027.

因此，任何有關擴大足跡的決定都將影響 2027 年之後的時期。

We won't need any capacity beyond that footprint until probably '29 or '30, depending on how our new technology plays out, what our efficiencies do, and whatnot.

直到29年或30年，我們才需要任何超出該足跡的容量，這取決於我們的新技術如何發揮作用、我們的效率如何等等。

So at this point, there's really no conclusion or decision.

所以目前還沒有結論或決定。

We've got all the variables.

我們已經掌握了所有的變數。

We'll look at all of them.

我們將研究所有這些。

We'll make the right decision based on the best inputs and the best visibility that we have.

我們將根據我們擁有的最佳投入和最佳可見性做出正確的決定。

Brian Holland, DA Davison.

布萊恩·霍蘭德，地方檢察官戴維森。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

I believe guidance implies a 24% net sales growth against relative media spend of 9% in the back half of '24.

我認為指導意味著 24 年下半年淨銷售額將成長 24%，而相對媒體支出將成長 9%。

I, obviously, realize that's bit of a condensed window as opposed to looking at it more annualized.

顯然，我意識到這有點像一個濃縮的窗口，而不是更年化地看待它。

But just curious whether that dynamic is indicative at all of how you see '25 shaping up at this point, particularly on the media side.

但我只是好奇這種動態是否能顯示你對「25」目前的發展的看法，尤其是在媒體方面。

Yeah.

是的。

Brian, I would characterize it as the media in the back half of the year would indicate the momentum and the household penetration gains we get as we head into the first half of next year.

布萊恩，我將其描述為下半年的媒體將表明我們進入明年上半年時的勢頭和家庭滲透率的增長。

So looking at the spending in the back half and the growth rate in the back half, you're sort of looking at two things that are not time aligned.

因此，看看後半部的支出和後半部的成長率，你會看到兩件時間不符的事情。

The growth rate in the back half of this year is related to the spending we had in the first half of this year.

今年下半年的成長速度與我們今年上半年的支出有關。

The spending in the second half of this year is what will drive the growth rate in the first half next year.

今年下半年的支出將拉動明年上半年的成長。

So we do know that as we get the significant media spending that we're making in the back half of this year, relative to what we've done in previous years, we expect that to be the thing that starts driving the household penetration growth back up again.

因此，我們確實知道，與前幾年相比，當我們在今年下半年獲得大量媒體支出時，我們預計這將開始推動家庭滲透率成長再次備份。

And you'll start seeing them in the first half of next year.

明年上半年你就會開始看到它們。

And then that, obviously, will turn into volume growth that begins in the first half of next year and continues through the back half of the year.

顯然，這將轉化為從明年上半年開始並持續到今年下半年的銷售成長。

Bryan Spillane, Bank of America.

布萊恩·斯皮蘭，美國銀行。

Thanks, operator.

謝謝，接線生。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Given the, I guess, some of the comments and things you've teased out in terms of updating long-term targets and objectives, I guess, a bigger question I was thinking about is, it's very rare in consumer packaged goods for a category to develop and gain substantial shelf space with really just one player in the category.

我想，考慮到您在更新長期目標和目的方面提出的一些評論和事情，我想，我正在考慮的一個更大的問題是，這在消費品類別中非常罕見開發並獲得大量的貨架空間，實際上只有該類別中的一名參與者。

Retailers tend to like multiple options, multiple price points.

零售商往往喜歡多種選擇、多種價位。

And if we think about fresh as a subsegment of total pet food category, just how does that factor into your thinking about expansion, gaining share of -- fresh gaining share of the pet food category?

如果我們將生鮮視為整個寵物食品類別的一個子部分，那麼這對您關於擴張、獲得生鮮寵物食品類別份額的想法有何影響？

Really, can that happen with what is effectively -- at least in brick-and-mortar retail -- effectively, like one horse in the race?

真的，這種情況能有效地發生嗎——至少在實體零售業——有效地，就像比賽中的一匹馬一樣？

Yeah.

是的。

Bryan, this is the thing that we've been spending a lot of time thinking about since we launched Feed the Growth in 2017, which is -- the reality is that this is a very scale-driven business.

布萊恩，自從我們在 2017 年推出「促進成長」以來，這是我們花了很多時間思考的事情，事實上，這是一個非常規模驅動的業務。

And there are enormous advantages to somebody who build scale in it, whether that's in manufacturing, whether that's the fridge placements of retail, whether that's distribution and logistics that go with it.

對於在其中建立規模的人來說，無論是在製造業，無論是零售業的冰箱佈局，還是隨之而來的分銷和物流，都有巨大的優勢。

And our goal was to get ourselves in a position where we had an enormous head start and a significant scale advantage against somebody who came behind us.

我們的目標是讓自己處於領先地位，並在與落後者的競爭中獲得顯著的規模優勢。

Clearly, anybody else can enter this category.

顯然，任何其他人都可以進入這一類別。

We've seen that from Mars and from General Mills, and we'd expect to see others come along as well.

我們已經從火星和通用磨坊看到了這一點，我們希望看到其他人也能加入。

Whether they'd be able to compete effectively against what we've built is -- remains to be seen.

他們是否能夠與我們所建構的產品進行有效競爭還有待觀察。

But in terms of -- if you look back over time, your observation is a fairly good one.

但就這一點而言——如果你回顧過去，你的觀察結果是相當不錯的。

But the reality is the category creator, the guy who creates the category, if they do a really good job, which is what we're shooting to do, ends up with the lion's share of the market share.

但現實是品類創造者，創造品類的人，如果他們做得非常好，這就是我們正在努力做的事情，最終會獲得最大的市場份額。

Whether you think about Gatorade at 75 share, whether you think about Keurig Green Mountain, any of these guys have really created a big category.

無論你想到 75 份額的佳得樂，無論你想到 Keurig Green Mountain，這些人中的任何一個都確實創造了一個大類別。

They own the lion share of the category and the bulk of the profits, if not more than 100% of the category profit.

他們擁有該品類的最大份額和大部分利潤，甚至超過該品類利潤的 100%。

And so that's really where we expect ourselves to go.

所以這確實是我們期望自己去的地方。

We do expect to have competition at some point.

我們確實預計在某個時候會出現競爭。

The question is how good they'll be.

問題是他們會有多好。

Jon Andersen, William Blair.

喬恩·安德森，威廉·布萊爾。

Hey, good morning, everybody, and congrats on the quarter.

嘿，大家早上好，恭喜本季。

A quick two-parter on distribution.

快速的兩人合作發行。

In the presentation, it shows a 9% increase in cubic feet but a 22% increase in TDPs.

在演示中，立方英尺增加了 9%，但 TDP 增加了 22%。

Just wondering how you kind of square the two.

只是想知道你如何將兩者平方。

And I think there was a comment in the prepared remarks around absorbing some shelf space from retailer-owned fridges.

我認為準備好的評論中有一條評論是關於從零售商擁有的冰箱中吸收一些貨架空間的。

If you could talk a little bit about that dynamic.

您能談談這種動態嗎？

And then the second part is, I think 22% now of your locations have second fridges.

第二部分是，我認為現在有 22% 的門市擁有第二台冰箱。

How would you expect that to develop over time based on your conversations with retailers?

根據您與零售商的對話，您預計這種情況隨著時間的推移會如何發展？

And where is the white space for second/third fridges in terms of channels?

第二/第三台冰箱的通道空白在哪裡？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Hey, Jon, Scott.

嘿，喬恩，史考特。

So yeah, so we -- look, we've tried to move over time, really start thinking about the space that we're picking up from a cubic foot standpoint.

所以，是的，所以我們——看，我們已經嘗試隨著時間的推移而移動，真正開始思考我們從立方英尺的角度所獲得的空間。

The reality is that one fridge is interesting, but we -- like the reality is for us that second and third fridges is really where the greatest opportunities lie for us.

現實情況是，一台冰箱很有趣，但我們——就像現實對我們來說，第二台和第三台冰箱確實是我們最大的機會。

So we're continuing to see a lot of second and third fridges being added, not only we added this year, we think there's going to be a lot added over the course of the next couple of years as retailers are looking around the category.

因此，我們繼續看到大量第二台和第三台冰箱被添加，不僅是我們今年添加的，我們認為隨著零售商正在尋找該類別，未來幾年還會添加很多。

And if you look -- look, most retailers, they look up and down the category.

如果你看一下，大多數零售商都會上下查找該類別。

And they're going, what's going on across these brands, and what's going on across these segments.

它們正在發生，這些品牌正在發生什麼，以及這些細分市場正在發生什麼。

And then recognizing that fresh is really where the growth is coming from.

然後認識到新鮮才是成長的真正來源。

And as they do that, they go, wow, I have one fridge.

當他們這樣做時，他們會說，哇，我有一台冰箱。

Do I need a second and potentially a third?

我需要第二個甚至第三個嗎？

And we're even having conversation with a few people, maybe even a fourth.

我們甚至正在與一些人交談，甚至可能是第四個人。

And that's a little bit premature, but we see consistent growth coming from fridge expansion.

這有點為時過早，但我們看到冰箱的擴張帶來了持續的成長。

The -- what we are starting to see is, there are a couple of retailers -- and I would say, literally -- just literally a handful -- that are kind of tinkering and trying a couple of different fridge layouts and formats with some of their own models and some of their own fridges.

我們開始看到的是，有幾家零售商，我想說，從字面上看，只是少數幾家零售商，正在嘗試一些不同的冰箱佈局和格式。

The only one who has really substantial number of their own fridges is Walmart.

沃爾瑪是唯一一家擁有大量自有冰箱的公司。

They had made an investment in it.

他們對此進行了投資。

That investment was originally intended to help Blue and honestly, I believe, Cesar rollout and in addition to some of their private label products.

我相信，這項投資最初是為了幫助 Blue 和 Cesar 推出以及他們的一些自有品牌產品。

And what's happened over time is they made that investment.

隨著時間的推移，他們進行了投資。

It was, I think, a really interesting decision for them.

我認為這對他們來說是一個非常有趣的決定。

It is a heavy lift, not only from a capital standpoint, but from a maintenance standpoint.

這是一項艱鉅的任務，不僅從資本的角度來看，而且從維護的角度來看。

And those products really didn't play out to what, I think, anyone had imagined on any side of the fence.

我認為，這些產品確實沒有達到任何人想像的效果。

I think Walmart was somewhat disappointed with it.

我認為沃爾瑪對此有些失望。

And now what's starting to happen is we're actually going into many of those fridges.

現在我們開始使用許多這樣的冰箱。

You'll start to see our products into some of those fridges.

您將開始在其中一些冰箱中看到我們的產品。

And now we'll have a substantial share of that fridge, and our products are performing incredibly well.

現在我們將擁有該冰箱的很大份額，而且我們的產品表現得非常好。

Like, we are pleasantly, pleasantly surprised that being able to put a set of new products into those fridges and see the performance that they're delivering.

就像，我們非常驚訝地能夠將一組新產品放入這些冰箱中並看到它們所提供的性能。

And they continue to kind of grow on a consistent basis.

而且它們在持續的基礎上繼續增長。

So we love that.

所以我們喜歡這樣。

We're really behind in space at Walmart, and we love that we're able to now kind of grab that additional space in those fridges and see that happen.

我們在沃爾瑪的空間方面確實落後了，我們很高興現在能夠在這些冰箱中抓住額外的空間並看到這種情況的發生。

Other than Walmart, as I was touching on a minute ago, there really isn't anyone that has any kind of scale around owning their own fridges.

正如我剛才提到的，除了沃爾瑪之外，確實沒有任何一家公司能夠擁有自己的冰箱。

And I think most retailers have gotten really comfortable with -- we're bringing something that's incredibly value-added, very unique, incredibly well managed.

我認為大多數零售商都已經非常滿意——我們正在帶來令人難以置信的增值、非常獨特、管理得非常好的東西。

And I can get into like why it's well managed, but they don't have to touch a thing.

我可以解釋為什麼它管理得很好，但他們不需要碰任何東西。

We can repair a fridge, a broken fridge within hours, not days and weeks, that you'll have many times.

我們可以在幾小時內修復一台冰箱，一台壞掉的冰箱，而不是幾天或幾週，而您會遇到很多次。

And it's because we've built this into another one of these kind of assets and capabilities of the organization.

這是因為我們已將其建置到組織的另一種資產和能力中。

So -- and hats off to the fridge team.

所以——向冰箱團隊致敬。

We have less than 1% of fridges down all the time, and we have 33,000 fridges out there.

我們有 33,000 台冰箱，只有不到 1% 的冰箱一直處於停機狀態。

It's a small group that does great work for us.

這是一個為我們做了很多工作的小團體。

So we think this is an asset that we're developing for the future and a benefit that we're bringing to retailers.

因此，我們認為這是我們為未來開發的資產，也是我們為零售商帶來的好處。

And most of them aren't anticipating buying their own fridges.

他們中的大多數人並不打算購買自己的冰箱。

Peter Benedict, Baird.

彼得·本尼迪克特，貝爾德。

Hey, good morning, guys.

嘿，早上好，夥計們。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

Why don't you talk a little bit the hiring of Nicki as Chief Operating Officer a couple of months ago?

為什麼不談談幾個月前聘請 Nicki 擔任營運長的事呢？

Just kind of curious what she's bringing, what are maybe initial observations are.

只是有點好奇她帶來了什麼，初步觀察可能是什麼。

I know she's somewhat restricted in what you can do initially.

我知道她對你最初能做的事情有些限制。

But just kind of help us understand what you think her impact can be on the organization as you guys look to continue to grow over the next few years.

但請幫助我們了解您認為她對組織的影響，因為您希望在未來幾年繼續發展。

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Peter.

謝謝，彼得。

We're thrilled to have Nicki join us.

我們很高興 Nicki 加入我們。

She's bringing a fresh set of eyes to our business and a different set of capabilities than some of our management has or our team has collectively.

她為我們的業務帶來了全新的視角，並帶來了與我們的一些管理層或我們的團隊集體不同的能力。

And so that's been a real breath of fresh air.

所以這是真正的新鮮空氣。

As you alluded to, she does have some limitations in what she can do until May of next year.

正如你所提到的，在明年五月之前她能做的事情確實有一些限制。

And those limitations restrict her ability to work only in the grocery, drug, mass, club channels. until then.

這些限制限制了她只能在雜貨、藥品、大眾、俱樂部通路工作。直到那時。

So we'll be a little bit limited in the total impact that she can have until that time.

因此，在那之前，她所能產生的整體影響會受到一些限制。

But between now and then, she's digging into our existing business, bringing fresh eyes to it.

但從現在到那時，她正在深入研究我們現有的業務，並為它帶來新的視角。

And we think that's going to be purely additive and adds to our bench strength.

我們認為這將純粹是附加的，並增加我們的替補實力。

We have really big ambitions as a company.

作為一家公司，我們有著遠大的抱負。

We want to be a much bigger player in the pet category, and getting a talent that is of Nicki's caliber is a huge win for us.

我們希望成為寵物領域的更大玩家，獲得像 Nicki 這樣的人才對我們來說是一個巨大的勝利。

And we think, frankly, it gives us the ability to project further a much bigger business, probably a much more expansive business than we have today.

坦白說，我們認為，它使我們有能力進一步規劃更大的業務，可能比我們今天的業務更廣泛。

Tom Palmer, Citi.

湯姆·帕爾默，花旗銀行。

Hi, good morning, and thanks for the question.

你好，早安，謝謝你的提問。

I just wanted to ask on some timing items you've kind of noted this year.

我只是想問一下您今年註意到的一些時間事項。

You noted this quarter that there was a timing benefit for quality cost in the third quarter, that's expected to reverse.

您在本季指出，第三季的品質成本存在時間優勢，預計這種優勢將會逆轉。

Just any quantification and detail on what drove that.

只是關於驅動因素的任何量化和細節。

And then secondarily, in the first quarter of this year, you've noted around 100 basis points of operating leverage on the gross margin line.

其次，在今年第一季度，您注意到毛利率線上的營運槓桿約為 100 個基點。

Has that kind of fully reversed at this point?

現在情況已經完全逆轉了嗎？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah, it's Todd.

是的，這是托德。

So on the quality issue, we had a fantastic quarter.

因此，在品質問題上，我們度過了一個精彩的季度。

Disposals were super low, which really helped.

處置量非常低，這確實有幫助。

We did see -- experience some higher quality costs in September, the secondary processing piece of the quality component.

我們確實看到——在九月份，優質零件的二次加工件經歷了一些更高的品質成本。

That did not flow through the P&L in September.

這並沒有反映在 9 月的損益表中。

It did flow through the P&L in October.

它確實流經了十月份的損益表。

That was about a 50-basis-point benefit in Q3 that we'll see in Q4.

第三季的收益大約有 50 個基點，我們將在第四季看到這一點。

So that number, still, will be higher the quality cost number in Q4.

因此，這個數字仍然會高於第四季的品質成本數字。

But we still feel very, very good about where we are for the year.

但我們仍然對今年的狀況感到非常非常好。

Regarding the 100 basis points benefit we saw in Q1 as we built inventory, we've seen only a very small portion of that reverse.

關於我們在第一季建立庫存時看到的 100 個基點的收益，我們只看到了這種逆轉的一小部分。

It's still a little bit of a wildcard.

它仍然有點像通配符。

We might see a little bit of it reverse in Q4, but I'm not anticipating much of it.

我們可能會在第四季度看到一些逆轉，但我預計不會有太多逆轉。

So most of that inventory benefit will hold.

因此，大部分庫存效益將保持不變。

It's really just a derivative of how fast we're growing and our need to build inventory to supply the business.

這實際上只是我們成長速度以及我們需要建立庫存來供應業務的衍生性商品。

Michael Lavery, Piper Sandler.

麥可萊弗里、派珀桑德勒。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

Can you just touch on NS a little bit more now that you've got the fourth line?

既然你已經有了第四行，你能再多談談 NS 嗎？

How much more significant is your flexibility there?

你的彈性有多重要？

And have you been able to push a little bit on more extended runs with like maybe one bag and one roll line that each could do kind of the power SKUs and then the other that could do the rest of the portfolio?

您是否能夠在更長時間的運行中推動一點點，例如一條袋子和一條卷生產線，每個生產線都可以完成某種功能性的 SKU，然後另一個可以完成產品組合的其餘部分？

Is that something you've been able to test yet or get working on?

這是您已經能夠測試或正在進行的工作嗎？

How does that look?

看起來怎麼樣？

Yeah, Michael, as we said all along, getting two bag lines and two roll lines up and going was going to be a big unlock for us in that we'll be able to have one line specialized in very high-velocity, high-volume SKUs and have all the complexity being taken by the other line.

是的，邁克爾，正如我們一直以來所說的，建立兩條製袋生產線和兩條卷裝生產線，這對我們來說將是一個巨大的解鎖，因為我們將能夠擁有一條專門從事非常高速、高-大量 SKU，並且具有其他生產線所承擔的所有複雜性。

So when we started up that roll line in September, we saw that benefit that, obviously, didn't show up in this quarter because those -- that production will impact Q4.

因此，當我們在 9 月啟動該軋製生產線時，我們看到了這種好處，但顯然在本季度沒有顯現出來，因為這些生產將影響第四季。

But we started seeing some sizable improvements, particularly, on our roll side of the business.

但我們開始看到一些相當大的改進，特別是在我們的業務方面。

On the bag side of the business, we've been getting some of the benefit of that.

在包袋業務方面，我們已經從中受益。

But we're still scaling that business, trying to work out the [kings] as you get the site up and going.

但我們仍在擴展該業務，並在網站啟動和運行時嘗試找出[王者]。

But without a doubt, having two of each, two bag lines, two roll lines has enabled us to get the longer runs on one of the lines, more efficiency on those lines, and have all the complexity borne on the other line.

但毫無疑問，每條兩條生產線、兩條製袋生產線、兩條軋製生產線使我們能夠在其中一條生產線上獲得更長的運行時間，提高這些生產線的效率，並將所有複雜性轉移到另一條生產線上。

The site in Ennis -- just to be very clear, we'll always be, I'd say, running a little bit behind where we are in Bethlehem, purely because we're constantly starting up new lines versus the more mature site in Bethlehem, where we've been operating for a long time.

恩尼斯的工廠——我要說的是，我們將永遠落後於伯利恆的工廠，純粹是因為與伯利恆更成熟的工廠相比，我們不斷地啟動新的生產線。長時間。

It's a very stable environment.

這是一個非常穩定的環境。

In Ennis, we started up a line in September.

在恩尼斯，我們於九月啟動了一條生產線。

We have another line starting up in December.

我們有另一條生產線將於 12 月啟動。

The third roll line starts up in December, and we have construction going on there.

第三條軋製線將於 12 月啟動，目前正在進行施工。

So there's a nonstop process of expansion that makes it a little bit harder to get to the level of performance you get in a more stable operation like Bethlehem.

因此，存在著一個不間斷的擴張過程，這使得達到像伯利恆這樣更穩定的運作中獲得的性能水平變得有點困難。

But over the long haul, Ennis looks like it's going to deliver the efficiency advantages that we had hoped for when we designed and built the facility.

但從長遠來看，恩尼斯看起來將提供我們在設計和建造設施時所希望的效率優勢。

It just will take a little bit of time until we get there.

我們只需要一點時間就能到達那裡。

Jim Salera, Stephens Inc.

吉姆·薩萊拉，史蒂芬斯公司

Hi, guys.

嗨，大家好。

Good morning.

早安.

Thanks for taking our question.

感謝您提出我們的問題。

Two-part question for me.

對我來說分為兩部分的問題。

You guys talked in the deck about the conversion from toppers to main meals helping drive the buy rate.

你們在甲板上討論了從禮賓到主餐的轉換，有助於提高購買率。

I just wanted to drill down on that and see if you could offer some color on what drives that conversion into kind of a main meal buyer.

我只是想深入研究這一點，看看你是否可以提供一些關於推動人們轉變為主要膳食購買者的因素的資訊。

And if you're able to size up the percentage of your current buyers that are using the product as toppers, just so we can kind of frame up how much conversion opportunity there is as we move forward.

如果您能夠估算目前使用該產品作為頂級產品的買家的百分比，這樣我們就可以確定隨著我們的前進，有多少轉換機會。

Hey, Jim.

嘿，吉姆。

So look, I think that a lot of times, adoption takes different paths, right?

所以看，我認為很多時候，採取會採取不同的路徑，對嗎？

So we know that people -- some people come in and they start -- they become a heavy user almost immediately.

所以我們知道人們——有些人進來後就開始了——他們幾乎立即成為重度用戶。

And they kind of go down that path.

他們就沿著這條路走下去。

We do know that there are a lot of users -- in fact, it's a very big chunk of people that we consider toppers because they are doing some type of mixing behavior.

我們確實知道有很多用戶——事實上，我們認為有很大一部分是頂級用戶，因為他們正在做某種類型的混合行為。

It's a pretty standard behavior in pet food, where people are taking dry food and mixing in a wet food.

這是寵物食品中相當標準的行為，人們服用乾糧並混合濕糧。

What our goal is and what we're doing over time is we're trying to make sure that we're communicating and messaging to people that this is your main meal.

我們的目標是什麼，以及隨著時間的推移我們正在做的事情是，我們正在努力確保我們正在向人們傳達和傳達訊息，即這是您的主餐。

And I think that's why you're starting to see more and more growth in that HIPPO area.

我認為這就是為什麼你開始看到 HIPPO 區域越來越多的成長。

So if you see -- we talked about basically our penetration growth is this number, our HIPPOH growth is 24%.

所以如果你看到——我們基本上討論了我們的滲透率增長是這個數字，我們的 HIPPOH 增長是 24%。

So if we can get those HIPPOHs and get everyone in that mindset to use us as a main meal and not a topper and get them to understand, this is the center of your plate -- just like your food, your meal, the center of your plate should be fresh real food.

因此，如果我們能夠獲得這些HIPPOH，讓每個人都以這種心態將我們用作主餐而不是配菜，並讓他們理解，這是您盤子的中心- 就像您的食物、您的餐食、食物的中心一樣。

And that's what we're delivering to consumers and bringing to them.

這就是我們向消費者提供並帶給他們的東西。

So -- and what you're seeing is that's in the way -- in our advertising and the way we communicate, that's in everything we're showing.

所以——你所看到的是——在我們的廣告和我們溝通的方式中，這在我們展示的一切中。

We're always showing full bowls of Freshpet.

我們總是展示滿滿一碗的Freshpet。

We're not showing bowls of people mixing food.

我們不會展示人們在碗裡混合食物。

So we're demonstrating that in all the imagery that we're doing, everything that we're kind of -- the way we're communicating to consumers from an emotional standpoint, and who they are and what they're all about and how they think about their dog food.

因此，我們正在透過我們正在做的所有圖像、我們所做的一切來展示這一點——我們從情感的角度與消費者溝通的方式，以及他們是誰、他們的全部內容以及他們如何看待狗糧。

And then the next thing that we're doing, you'll see more and more recently -- and Billy touched on it in the script -- is more and more packs that are multipack or variety packs, where there's just multiple SKUs in a pack.

然後我們正在做的下一件事，你會看到越來越多的最近 - 比利在腳本中提到它 - 是越來越多的多件裝或多種裝，其中只有多個 SKU盒。

You're also seeing more and more large sizes from us.

您還看到我們提供越來越多的大尺寸產品。

The biggest people that are mixed is a large dog.

混雜的最大的人是一隻大型狗。

Well, what do we just come out with?

那麼，我們剛剛推出了什麼？

A large bag of a large dog food that tends to be doing really, really well.

一大袋大狗糧，效果往往非常非常好。

Like, we're thrilled with the results from that.

就像，我們對結果感到興奮。

So that's kind of like -- that's what we're seeing.

這有點像——這就是我們所看到的。

And this is going to take some time because what we're doing is trying to encourage a behavior change.

這將需要一些時間，因為我們正在做的是試圖鼓勵行為改變。

The core of our business again is the $5 million high profit or the HIPPOHs, the super heavy, heavy group.

我們業務的核心還是 500 萬美元的高利潤或 HIPPOHs，超重、重的集團。

We love those guys.

我們愛那些傢伙。

They're 90% of our business.

他們占我們業務的 90%。

That's who we're focusing on.

這就是我們關注的對象。

That's what we want to cultivate, and that's the behavior we want to encourage.

這就是我們想要培養的，這就是我們想要鼓勵的行為。

Kaumil Gajrawala, Jefferies.

考米爾·加吉拉瓦拉，傑弗里斯。

Hey, guys, good morning.

嘿，夥計們，早安。

One, just starting -- just a very quick one, confirming that the CapEx change was just entirely timing and pushed into '25, and maybe something that you're doing differently or a decision you've made on capacity.

一，剛開始——只是一個非常快的變化，確認資本支出的變化完全是時機，並被推到了 25 年，也許是你正在做的不同的事情或者你對容量做出的決定。

And then maybe a bigger question, which is on the marketing -- I guess, effectiveness of marketing you alluded to it a little bit at the beginning.

然後也許是一個更大的問題，這是關於行銷的——我想，你在一開始就提到了行銷的有效性。

But there's many different sort of pieces of calculus in how much to spend, whether it's capacity, capacity of specific forms.

但是對於花費多少，無論是容量還是特定形式的容量，都有許多不同類型的計算。

But also now you're pushing $1 billion in revenue.

而且現在您正在推動 10 億美元的營收。

So how do you think about advertising in the context of -- advertising and marketing in the context of the size that you now are beyond just sort of the capacity stuff which you brought up?

那麼，在廣告和行銷的背景下，你如何看待廣告，因為你現在的規模超出了你提出的能力範圍？

Yeah.

是的。

I'll take the first part.

我將採取第一部分。

The CapEx is almost all timing.

資本支出幾乎都是計時的。

So that will push into 2025.

那麼這將推遲到 2025 年。

That was quick.

那很快。

Look, to the effectiveness of the marketing, like this is the -- I think this is the key question that we try and stay on top of.

看看行銷的有效性，就像這樣——我認為這是我們努力解決的關鍵問題。

Like, sometimes, on a weekly basis, we're looking at this.

有時，我們每週都會關注這個問題。

And the thing that is -- look, it's very unusual.

看起來，這很不尋常。

Someone brought up very unusual for a packaged goods business in order to kind of maintain like a leadership role for a really long period of time.

有人在包裝商品行業中成長得非常不尋常，以便在很長一段時間內保持領導角色。

I think it's incredibly unusual for a packaged goods company to have the same level of productivity on their advertising, marketing effectiveness as they had for almost the past 10 years.

我認為，對於一家包裝商品公司來說，在廣告和行銷效果方面能夠保持與過去 10 年相同的生產力水平是非常不尋常的。

I mean, I don't think I'm like exaggerating too much where I say for -- literally for a decade, we've had very similar CAC.

我的意思是，我認為我所說的話並不過分誇大——實際上十年來，我們的 CAC 非常相似。

And the thing -- I'll go to CAC for a second, acquisition costs.

還有一個問題——我會再去 CAC 討論一下採購成本。

Because I think it's a good indicator of -- we're continuing to keep the message fresh.

因為我認為這是一個很好的指標——我們將繼續保持資訊的新鮮度。

We're continuing to like find new channels to communicate.

我們將繼續尋找新的溝通管道。

The CAC stays within a very, very tight band.

CAC 保持在非常非常緊張的範圍內。

And I think what that demonstrates is, the model is overall intact.

我認為這表明該模型總體上完好無損。

And it also, I think, most importantly, demonstrates the TAM potential, which I think is the other thing that people get really concerned about.

我認為，最重要的是，它也展示了 TAM 的潛力，我認為這是人們真正關心的另一件事。

Usually, when you get deeper into your TAM, your CAC starts to go up significantly.

通常，當您進入 TAM 時，您的 CAC 就會開始顯著上升。

We haven't seen that.

我們還沒有看到這一點。

So it gives us incredible confidence in what we're doing.

因此，它給了我們對我們正在做的事情難以置信的信心。

Now back to what we're doing for a second.

現在回到我們正在做的事情。

So this is one of these areas where there is a lot of magic that's created from the team and the people associated and that we work with, in order to keep the marketing kind of going.

因此，這是團隊和相關人員以及與我們合作的人員創造出許多魔力的領域之一，以保持行銷的持續進行。

And it's, first, the creative.

首先是創意。

The creative tests incredibly well.

該創意經過測試非常好。

And then in-market performance is -- honestly, it's extraordinary.

老實說，市場表現非常出色。

Todd loves when I use that word.

托德喜歡我用這個詞。

Next, the way we have -- where we place it.

接下來，我們的方式——我們把它放在哪裡。

We've started off like very, very kind of large, broad market advertising.

我們一開始就像是非常非常大、廣闊的市場廣告。

And then we've taken it into more and more different types of vehicles and mediums and different targets.

然後我們將其應用到越來越多不同類型的車輛和媒介以及不同的目標。

And even as we've kind of moved into different targets -- our men in sports -- you're seeing us more and more in sports -- we've been able to stay as productive.

即使我們已經進入了不同的目標——我們的運動員——你在體育領域看到我們越來越多——我們仍然能夠保持生產力。

And we also know what we're doing not now, but we know what we're doing six months and even a year from now as the plans fold out.

我們也知道現在不做什麼，但隨著計劃的展開，我們知道六個月甚至一年後我們在做什麼。

So what I mean by that is we will test things that are six months plus out and have them ready to go for us to continue to execute on the -- across the marketing model that we use.

所以我的意思是，我們將測試六個月以上的事情，並準備好讓我們繼續執行我們使用的行銷模式。

So that, hopefully, is helpful.

希望這會有所幫助。

We could spend a lot of time on that one.

我們可以在這一點上花費很多時間。

Marc Torrente, Wells Fargo.

馬克‧托倫特，富國銀行。

Hey, good morning, and thank you for the question.

嘿，早上好，謝謝你的提問。

Just on the consumer, you continue to see strong buy rate gains.

僅就消費者而言，您將繼續看到購買率的強勁成長。

You had also called out a shift to larger pack sizes of last quarter.

您也呼籲上個季度轉向更大的包裝尺寸。

I guess, any updated color on what you're seeing out there?

我想，你所看到的顏色有什麼更新嗎？

How do you expect mix to evolve in near term both in terms of consumer behavior and how that flows through the model?

您預期近期消費者行為及其在模型中的流動方式將如何發展？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Hey, Mark.

嘿，馬克。

So it's interesting.

所以這很有趣。

It's been one of these periods where there are -- it's a little bit of a tale of two cities, quite honestly.

老實說，這是一個關於兩個城市的故事的時期。

We talked about overall growth rate of the category has really moderated a bit, kind of flattened out around that 3% level.

我們談到該類別的整體成長率確實有所放緩，在 3% 的水平附近趨於平穩。

Definitely, there are two ends of the spectrum that seem to be doing well.

當然，有兩端似乎都表現良好。

One of them is what's considered almost ultra-premium in the category, and we'll put ourselves in that bucket for a second.

其中之一是該類別中幾乎被認為是超優質的產品，我們將暫時將自己置於這一類別中。

I don't think we'd like to think of ourselves that way, but we're in the higher end of the category.

我不認為我們願意這樣看待自己，但我們處於這一類別的高端。

And then there's a handful of products and more in the value area that are still doing pretty well and actually growing.

還有一些產品以及更多價值領域的產品仍然表現良好並且實際上正在成長。

The middle is getting squeezed a little bit. and it tends to have to do a little bit with people's income levels, but it is a conscious choice that people are deciding on what food they want to buy.

中間有點被擠壓。它往往與人們的收入水平有一定關係，但人們決定購買什麼食物是一種有意識的選擇。

On the ultra-premium end, there's people like us.

在超高端領域，有像我們這樣的人。

There's other direct-to-consumer brands that are very fairly expensive.

還有其他直接面向消費者的品牌非常昂貴。

But people are seeing the value in what we are bringing to the market and willing to spend the extra money on it because of the product that we bring and the value that they see from it.

但人們看到了我們為市場帶來的產品的價值，並且願意花額外的錢，因為我們帶來的產品以及他們從中看到的價值。

On the other end, maybe people that aren't quite as involved with their pet.

另一方面，也許人們不太關心他們的寵物。

They may be in a little bit of a crunch from inflation.

他們可能因通貨膨脹而受到一點壓力。

They haven't seen salaries go up as much, and they're making some different buying decisions.

他們沒有看到工資上漲那麼多，並且正在做出一些不同的購買決定。

That's not really our consumer group.

那並不是我們真正的消費族群。

That's not really who we're focused on, and that's not really the group we're after.

這並不是我們真正關注的對象，也不是我們真正追求的群體。

But we are watching this play out for the category.

但我們正在觀察這一類別的發展。

It's been an interesting period.

這是一段有趣的時期。

I think it's starting to kind of flatten out and moderate a bit.

我認為它開始趨於平緩並有所緩和。

I think people are getting a little bit more -- I think salaries have overall kind of grown a bit.

我認為人們的收入有所增加——我認為薪資總體上有所增長。

I think people are getting more comfortable with what the pricing is in general across the market.

我認為人們對整個市場的整體定價越來越滿意。

And I think that we're in a really fortunate position as we've tapped into a need and interest in the market from a consumer group that seems to be really, really large and growing, as they understand the differentiation of the products that we're putting out there.

我認為我們處於一個非常幸運的位置，因為我們已經從一個似乎非常非常大且不斷增長的消費者群體中挖掘了市場的需求和興趣，因為他們了解我們產品的差異化正在放在那裡。

John Lawrence, The Benchmark Company.

約翰·勞倫斯，基準公司。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Congrats, guys.

恭喜，夥計們。

Can you talk a little bit about the retailers?

能談談零售商嗎？

You mentioned the second and third fridges.

您提到了第二台和第三台冰箱。

We've talked about it over time, the cycle times and the review periods at these retailers, when they do their performance reviews.

我們已經討論過這些零售商進行績效評估時的週期時間和評估週期。

How long -- does it sometimes take 12 to 18 months to get these planograms and fridges added to the mix?

需要多長時間——有時需要 12 到 18 個月才能將這些貨架圖和冰箱添加到組合中？

Hey, John.

嘿，約翰。

Yeah, it really -- in some cases, it can be a very, very long cadence with certain retailers that are in kind of certain mindsets and certain investment ideologies.

是的，確實如此——在某些情況下，對於某些具有特定心態和特定投資意識形態的零售商來說，這可能是一個非常非常長的節奏。

And a great example -- and you and I have probably chatted about this at one point.

這是一個很好的例子——你和我可能曾經討論過這個問題。

If someone's doing a massive remodel in '26, they're not going to probably do a big touch in a category in '25.

如果有人在 26 年進行大規模改造，那麼他們可能不會在 25 年對某個類別進行重大改動。

But look, I mean, there are 70 retailers that we work with.

但你看，我的意思是，我們有 70 家零售商合作。

So it spans the gamut.

所以它涵蓋了整個領域。

There are times where we could be having discussions now or in kind of Q1 that can have real impact in 2025.

有時我們可能現在就進行討論，或在第一季進行討論，這可能會在 2025 年產生真正的影響。

And we have seen that very often.

我們經常看到這種情況。

I think the good news for us is that we are having great conversations now about things that will happen in '25.

我認為對我們來說好消息是我們現在正在就 25 年將要發生的事情進行精彩的對話。

And if they don't happen in '25, some of them will happen in '26.

即使它們在 25 年沒有發生，其中一些也會在 26 年發生。

And we feel like we're well positioned to start going into next year with additional fridge expansion, space expansion, et cetera, as the retailers assess the category.

我們覺得，隨著零售商評估這個類別，我們已經做好了準備，可以在明年開始進行額外的冰箱擴建、空間擴張等。

The one thing I will put like the paid advertisement in here, the distribution is terrific.

我要說的一件事是這裡的付費廣告，分發非常棒。

The media is what -- is the vast majority of the driver.

媒體是絕大多數驅動力。

It's over 70% of the driver for our growth, and that's the growth algorithm.

這是我們成長70%以上的驅動力，這就是成長演算法。

And then what that media does is it drives new consumers -- hopefully, they're HIPPOHs -- that come into the business.

然後，媒體的角色是吸引新的消費者——希望他們是 HIPPOH——進入這個行業。

And then we do see really, really strong same-store sales growth over time.

隨著時間的推移，我們確實看到了非常非常強勁的同店銷售成長。

We're always seeing double-digit same-store sales growth.

我們總是看到兩位數的同店銷售額成長。

So that puts us in a really good position.

這使我們處於非常有利的位置。

And then on top of that, then we'll add innovation, and we'll add some additional space.

除此之外，我們將添加創新，並添加一些額外的空間。

And that's, really, what gets us to the rest of the growth rate that we're always looking for.

這確實是我們實現一直在尋找的成長率的原因。

We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session.

我們的問答環節已經結束。

I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Cyr for closing comments.

我想將會議轉回給西爾先生發表總結意見。

Thank you, everyone.

謝謝大家。

On this day before election day, I'm reminded of a quote from Will Rogers.

在選舉日前一天，我想起了威爾·羅傑斯的一句話。

I love a dog.

我喜歡一隻狗。

He does nothing for political reasons.

他不做任何事是出於政治原因。

So reward that dog with some Freshpet.

所以獎勵那隻狗一些 Freshpet。

Your dog's affection will make you forget all those campaigns ads and fundraising texts you've been drowning in.

你的狗的愛會讓你忘記所有那些你一直沉浸在的競選廣告和籌款短信中。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This will conclude today's conference.

今天的會議到此結束。

You may disconnect at this time, and thank you for your participation.

此時您可以斷開連接，感謝您的參與。