使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
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Unidentified Participant
And AND Mariner Greetings and welcome to Freshpet's Third Quarter 2024 earnings call.
和 Mariner 向您致以問候,歡迎參加 Freshpet 的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。
At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode.
此時,所有參與者都處於只聽模式。
A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation.
正式演講後將舉行問答環節。
If anyone should require operator assistance, please press star zero on your telephone keypad.
如果有人需要接線生幫助,請按電話鍵盤上的星號零。
As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
提醒一下,本次會議正在錄製中。
Now my pleasure to introduce Jeff Sonnek with ICR.
現在我很高興向您介紹 ICR 的 Jeff Sonnek。
Thank you.
謝謝。
You may begin.
你可以開始了。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Good morning, and welcome to Freshpet's Third Quarter 2024 earnings call and webcast.
早安,歡迎參加 Freshpet 2024 年第三季財報電話會議和網路廣播。
On today's call are Billy Cyr, Chief Executive Officer, and Tod Cooper, Chief Financial Officer.
執行長比利·西爾 (Billy Cyr) 和財務長托德·庫珀 (Tod Cooper) 出席了今天的電話會議。
Scott Morris, President and co-founder will also be available for Q&A.
總裁兼聯合創始人斯科特莫里斯也將出席問答環節。
Before we begin, please remember that during the course of this call, management may make forward looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
在我們開始之前,請記住,在本次電話會議期間,管理層可能會做出 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。
These include statements related to our long-term strategy, 2027 goals and pace in achieving these goals, prospects for growth, timing of capital, passively expansion, new products and new technology into 2020 for guidance, words such as anticipate, believe, could, estimate, expect, guidance, intend, may, project, will or similar conditional expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements.
其中包括與我們的長期策略、2027 年目標和實現這些目標的步伐、成長前景、資本時機、被動擴張、2020 年新產品和新技術相關的陳述,以供指導,諸如預期、相信、可以、估計、期望、指導、打算、可能、預測、意願或類似的條件表達旨在識別前瞻性陳述。
These statements are based on management's current expectations and beliefs and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in these forward-looking statements.
這些陳述是基於管理階層目前的預期和信念,涉及可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述中描述的結果有重大差異的風險和不確定性。
Including those associated with such statements, please refer to the Company's annual report on Form 10 K filed with the SEC and the Company's press release issued today for detailed discussion of risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward looking statements made today.
包括與此類聲明相關的內容,請參閱本公司向SEC 提交的10 K 表格年度報告以及本公司今天發布的新聞稿,詳細討論可能導致實際結果與任何前瞻性聲明中明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異的風險看看今天發表的聲明。
Please note that on today's call, management will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, such as EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA among others.
請注意,在今天的電話會議上,管理層將提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標,例如 EBITDA 和調整後 EBITDA 等。
The company believes these non-GAAP financial measures provide useful information for investors.
該公司相信這些非公認會計準則財務指標為投資者提供了有用的信息。
Presentation of this information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the financial information presented in accordance with GAAP.
此資訊的呈現並非旨在被孤立地考慮或作為根據 GAAP 呈現的財務資訊的替代品。
Please refer to today's press release for how management defines such non-GAAP measures.
請參閱今天的新聞稿,以了解管理階層如何定義此類非公認會計原則衡量標準。
Why management believes such non-GAAP measures are useful for a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable measures prepared in accordance with GAAP and limitations associated with such non-GAAP measures.
為什麼管理階層認為此類非 GAAP 衡量標準有助於將非 GAAP 財務衡量標準與根據 GAAP 編制的最具可比性的衡量標準以及與此類非 GAAP 衡量標準相關的限制進行協調。
Finally, the Company has produced presentation that contains many of the key metrics that will be discussed on this call.
最後,該公司製作了演示文稿,其中包含本次電話會議將討論的許多關鍵指標。
That presentation can be found in the company's investor website.
該演示文稿可以在該公司的投資者網站上找到。
Management's commentary will not specifically walk through the presentation on the call, rather at the summary of the results and guidance they will discuss today.
管理層的評論不會具體介紹電話會議的演示,而是總結他們今天將討論的結果和指導。
So with that, I'd like to turn the call over to Billy Cyr, Chief Executive Officer.
因此,我想將電話轉給執行長比利·西爾 (Billy Cyr)。
Billy?
比利?
Thank you, Jeff, and good morning, everyone.
謝謝你,傑夫,大家早安。
For those of you who are wondering, Jeff was gracious enough to fill in for our VP of Investor Relations, Rachel, while she is on maternity leave now to the business, the message I would like to take away is that we are beginning to establish the kind of consistency and reliability in our manufacturing operations that we've been delivering on the top line for us some time that has enabled us to rapidly increase our margin while simultaneously generating the kind of growth you've come to expect from us.
對於那些想知道的人,傑夫非常慷慨地接替了我們的投資者關係副總裁雷切爾(Rachel),而她現在正在休產假,我想傳達的信息是,我們正在開始建立一段時間以來,我們一直在生產營運中提供一致性和可靠性,這使我們能夠快速提高利潤,同時實現您對我們的期望。
As you know, our objective this year was to continue our strong top-line growth, but do it at a rate that would enable us to live within our capacity limit while strengthening our operating performance and cash generation, the result would be category leading growth, outsized improvement in profitability and more effective cash management.
如您所知,我們今年的目標是繼續保持強勁的營收成長,但要以一定的速度實現這一目標,使我們能夠在產能限制內生活,同時加強我們的經營業績和現金生成,結果將是類別領先的成長,獲利能力大幅提高,現金管理更加有效。
We described with that as disciplined growth.
我們將其描述為有紀律的增長。
If we do that well, consumers will when customers will win and our shareholders will win, and that is what we are delivering.
如果我們做得好,當客戶獲勝、我們的股東獲勝時,消費者就會獲勝,而這就是我們所提供的。
In Q3, we delivered our 25th consecutive quarter of 25% year on year growth, a significant expansion or adjusted gross margin and adjusted EBITDA margin and sizable operating cash flow.
第三季度,我們連續第 25 個季度實現 25% 的同比增長,大幅擴張或調整後的毛利率和調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率以及可觀的營運現金流。
In fact, this is the third quarter in a row where our adjusted gross margin exceeded our 2027 target and our sixth consecutive quarter where our logistics cost was better than our long-term target, and we have generated more than $100 million in operating cash flow so far this year.
事實上,這是我們調整後的毛利率連續第三個季度超過我們的2027 年目標,也是我們的物流成本連續第六個季度優於我們的長期目標,並且我們產生了超過1 億美元的運營現金流今年到目前為止。
I suspect that many of you are now wondering if or when we are going to adjust our long-term targets to reflect the early achievement of so many of our long-term financial goals.
我懷疑你們中的許多人現在想知道我們是否或何時調整我們的長期目標,以反映我們許多長期財務目標的早期實現。
While we are very encouraged by our progress, we don't want to get ahead of ourselves.
雖然我們對自己的進步感到非常鼓舞,但我們不想超越自己。
We want to see sustained improvement across the full year before we conclude that we can do over more than what we have already committed.
我們希望看到全年的持續改進,然後我們才能得出結論,我們可以做得比我們已經承諾的更多。
We are also very mindful that we are operating in a dynamic environment.
我們也非常注意我們是在一個充滿活力的環境中運作。
It would likely bit more time to see where the current trends, particularly on inflation settle out.
可能需要更多的時間來觀察當前的趨勢,尤其是通膨的趨勢。
So this is something we are giving a great deal of thought to in consultation with our Board, but we aren't yet ready to update our long-term targets.
因此,我們正在與董事會協商,認真考慮這個問題,但我們尚未準備好更新我們的長期目標。
I would now like to call out a few key highlights from the quarter, and then Todd will provide a bit more detail on the financial results, and we'll update you on our thinking on guidance.
我現在想指出本季度的一些關鍵亮點,然後托德將提供有關財務業績的更多詳細信息,我們將向您介紹我們對指導的最新想法。
First, I'm very encouraged by the net sales growth we saw in the quarter.
首先,我對本季看到的淨銷售額成長感到非常鼓舞。
We grew 26% and virtually all of it was due to volume growth.
我們成長了 26%,幾乎全部歸功於銷量成長。
This volume growth was driven by strong household penetration growth, particularly amongst our hip.
這一銷售成長是由強勁的家庭滲透率成長推動的,尤其是在我們的臀部。
Both overall household penetration growth was up 17% despite lapping a sizable gain households in the year-ago period, and the Hippo growth rate was 24%.
儘管去年同期家庭滲透率大幅成長,但兩者的整體家庭滲透率成長了 17%,其中 Hippo 成長率為 24%。
Recall our media investment is more back loaded this year than it was last year.
回想一下,今年我們的媒體投資比去年更多。
So you should expect that household penetration, which is a 52-week measure, will lag our long-term growth rate in the back half of this year due to the change in the media timing.
因此,您應該預期,由於媒體時機的變化,家庭滲透率(52 週的衡量標準)將落後於我們今年下半年的長期成長率。
However, could reaccelerate in the first half of next year.
然而,明年上半年可能會重新加速。
We are getting the benefit of this year's second half media investment in the 52 week measure.
我們正在從今年下半年 52 週的媒體投資中受益。
We continue to believe that we are well on track to deliver our 2027 target of 20 million households and are increasingly focusing our attention on the $5 million hit, both who now represent about ultimately 90% of our revenues.
我們仍然相信,我們正在順利實現 2027 年 2000 萬戶家庭的目標,並且越來越多地將注意力集中在 500 萬美元的目標上,這兩者目前約占我們最終收入的 90%。
Second, our team did an outstanding job managing the balance between capacity and demand, allowing us to simultaneously drive strong growth rates and strong operating performance.
其次,我們的團隊在管理產能和需求之間的平衡方面表現出色,使我們能夠同時推動強勁的成長率和強勁的經營業績。
Recall that we chose to limit our first half media investment to a rate that was below our rate of sales growth so that we can reliably meet demand until our new role line.
回想一下,我們選擇將上半年的媒體投資限制在低於銷售成長率的水平,以便我們能夠可靠地滿足新角色線之前的需求。
And this is up and operating at the end of Q3 that planned work, we are able to grow 26% in the quarter, but did it with the customer order fill rate of 99 until rate is a very good indicator of overall operating performance for us.
這是在計劃工作的第三季度末開始運營的,我們能夠在本季度增長 26%,但客戶訂單履行率為 99,直到該比率成為我們整體運營績效的一個非常好的指標。
And that was definitely true.
這絕對是真的。
So in Q three, we're able to deliver this strong performance because the reliability of our media model provided a very accurate forecast demand.
因此,在第三季度,我們能夠提供如此強勁的性能,因為我們的媒體模型的可靠性提供了非常準確的預測需求。
And our operations team generated strong throughput on our existing production lines and started up the new role line one week early.
我們的營運團隊在現有生產線上產生了強勁的吞吐量,並提前一周啟動了新角色生產線。
In essence, we are able to thread the needle, i.e., generate strong growth without exceeding our capacity limits and while maintaining exceptional customer service.
從本質上講,我們能夠成功,即在不超出我們的能力限制的情況下實現強勁增長,同時保持卓越的客戶服務。
We expect to apply that same type of robust planning as we bring on new lines over the next few years, carefully managing our media investment in capacity to ensure good customer service, strong net sales growth and healthy margins.
我們希望在未來幾年推出新產品時採用同樣類型的穩健規劃,仔細管理我們的媒體投資容量,以確保良好的客戶服務、強勁的淨銷售額成長和健康的利潤率。
Third, the production, quality and logistics teams and the Freshpet Kitchens continue to drive improved performance, including yield throughput and quality costs, while also delivering exceptional customer service at our lowest logistics costs as a percent of net sales ever on a year-over-year basis, the sum total our input costs, logistics and quality improved by 790 basis points, and that contributed to a 630 basis point improvement in our adjusted gross margin.
第三,生產、品質和物流團隊以及Freshpet Kitchens繼續推動績效的提高,包括產量吞吐量和品質成本,同時以我們有史以來最低的物流成本(佔淨銷售額的百分比)提供卓越的客戶服務。年計算,我們的投入成本、物流和品質總計提高了790 個基點,這使我們的調整後毛利率提高了630 個基點。
We believe this is the result of the investment we've made in our hourly production workforce and their training, i.e., the fresh that Academy the Freshpet performance excellence program we began about two years ago and a more stable external environment.
我們相信,這是我們對小時生產勞動力及其培訓進行投資的結果,即我們大約兩年前開始的 Freshpet 卓越績效計劃學院和更穩定的外部環境。
Finally, our customer, our customers continue to believe that pressure that is the future of pet food and continue committing additional retail space to fresh pet.
最後,我們的客戶,我們的客戶仍然相信壓力是寵物食品的未來,並繼續為新鮮寵物投入更多的零售空間。
At the end of the quarter, we had 22% more total distribution points TDP.s due to the addition of more than 1,000 new stores year to date, more than 750 a day seasonal stores with second and third fridges year to date, and a sizable increase in shelf space and retailer owned fridges.
截至本季末,我們的總分銷點 TDP.s 增加了 22%,原因是年初至今新增了 1,000 多家新店、超過 750 家每天配備第二台和第三台冰箱的季節性商店,以及貨架空間和零售商擁有的冰箱大幅增加。
We continue to also see a strong connection between the increased retail visibility and the efficiency of our media investment as a retail presence amplifies the media investment.
我們也繼續看到,零售知名度的提高與我們媒體投資的效率之間存在著密切的聯繫,因為零售業務擴大了媒體投資。
This is visible in our customer acquisition cost stack, which continues to be in line with our long-term targets and is helping us drive a strong return on our advertising investment.
這在我們的客戶獲取成本堆疊中可見一斑,該成本堆疊繼續符合我們的長期目標,並幫助我們獲得豐厚的廣告投資回報。
Now I'll provide an update on KPI.s.
現在我將提供 KPI 的更新。
We track for our main and more plans, mainstream main meal, more profitable plans.
我們追蹤我們的主要和更多計劃、主流主餐、更有利可圖的計劃。
Focusing on the idea of mainstream fresh head is becoming increasingly mainstream, but still has a long runway for growth according to Nielsen.
尼爾森表示,關注主流新鮮頭腦的概念正變得越來越主流,但仍有很長的成長之路。
On the channel data, which includes e-commerce and direct to consumer as of September 28th, 2020, for total U.S. pet food is a $54.1 billion category.
根據通路數據(包括截至 2020 年 9 月 28 日的電子商務和直接面向消費者的管道),美國寵物食品總額為 541 億美元。
We only have a 3.2% market share within the $37 billion dog food segment, which is the majority of our business today within the Fresh Frozen subcategory in measured channels, fresh pet has been 96% market share.
在價值370 億美元的狗糧領域,我們僅佔3.2% 的市場份額,而狗糧是我們目前在可測渠道的新鮮冷凍子類別中的大部分業務,而新鮮寵物則佔據了96% 的市場份額。
Fresh continues to outperform the broader pet food category and many retailers believe it is the future of pet food.
生鮮食品的表現繼續優於更廣泛的寵物食品類別,許多零售商相信這是寵物食品的未來。
As a result, Freshpet now command 66% ACV in Nielsen XAOC., and we can to add distribution breadth and depth of the second and third fridges.
因此,Freshpet 現在在 Nielsen XAOC 中佔據了 66% ACV,我們可以增加第二台和第三台冰箱的分銷廣度和深度。
Our household penetration gains also demonstrate that we are well on our way to making fresh pet more mainstream.
我們家庭滲透率的提高也表明我們正在努力使新鮮寵物變得更加主流。
As I mentioned earlier, household penetration is on track to meet our target of 20 million households by 2027, but more importantly, the complexion of the households underpinning our growth continues to improve.
正如我之前提到的,家庭滲透率有望實現到 2027 年達到 2000 萬戶的目標,但更重要的是,支撐我們成長的家庭結構持續改善。
Our hip.
我們的臀部。
Both are growing 24% versus the prior year period, surpassing our broader household growth of 17%.
與去年同期相比,兩者均成長了 24%,超過了我們更廣泛的家庭成長率 17%。
We think the combination of retail support and our ability to drive household penetration is a clear indication that fresh that is leading the way towards making fresh pet food in mainstream idea are Hippo penetrate penetration also extend the main meal part of the strategy.
我們認為,零售支援與我們推動家庭滲透的能力相結合,清楚地表明,新鮮寵物食品在主流理念中引領著新鮮寵物食品的發展,河馬的滲透滲透也延伸了該策略的主要膳食部分。
Currently, 39% of Freshpet users are hit both and they represented 90% of our sales in the third quarter of those users.
目前,39% 的 Freshpet 用戶同時受到這兩種攻擊,他們占我們第三季銷售額的 90%。
About three or 25,000 or less than 3% of our total users by more than $1,000 of Freshpet per year in this group grew 23% over the past year.
在這一群體中,每年超過 1,000 美元的 Freshpet 用戶中大約有 3 名(即 25,000 名或不到 3%)在過去一年中增長了 23%。
They now represent approximately 27% of our business.
他們現在約占我們業務的 27%。
We are increasingly focusing our attention on this audience and trying to create a much larger cohort of users who look like.
我們越來越多地將注意力集中在這個受眾群體上,並試圖創建一個更大的用戶群。
They do.
他們確實這麼做了。
Part of our strategy for making fresh pet into more of a main meal item is to offer a range of items that meet the broadest range of consumer needs.
我們將新鮮寵物打造成更多主餐的策略之一是提供一系列滿足最廣泛消費者需求的產品。
This year.
今年。
We have launched several new items to do that and they are doing very well.
為此,我們推出了幾款新產品,而且效果非常好。
In particular, our large Dodd product, while still in limited distribution, has grown quite nicely as becoming a very successful item for us as it broadens the appeal of fresh pet into larger docs.
特別是,我們的大型 Dodd 產品雖然仍處於有限的分銷範圍,但已經發展得相當好,成為我們非常成功的產品,因為它將新鮮寵物的吸引力擴大到更大的文檔。
Sim-only are multipacks have done very well early next year.
僅限 Sim 卡的合裝包在明年初表現非常好。
We'll be launching a product for seniors further broadening fresh pizza.
我們將推出一款針對老年人的產品,進一步擴大新鮮披薩的範圍。
He'll adding second and third fridges enables greater distribution of our wider assortment based on total U.S. pet retail plus data from Nielsen, we currently have an average of 20.5 SKUs per point of distribution, up from 18.0 SKUs one year ago.
他將添加第二台和第三台冰箱,以便根據美國寵物零售總額以及尼爾森的數據,更好地配送我們更廣泛的品種,我們目前每個配送點平均有20.5 個SKU,高於一年前的18.0 個SKU。
Now to the more part of meaning more more profitable.
現在到了更多部分,意思是更多、更有利可圖。
We had another strong quarter of margin improvement.
我們的利潤率又一個強勁的季度改善。
Adjusted gross margin improved 60 basis points versus the strong results we posted in Q2 to 46.5%, and we ended the third quarter with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 17.2%.
與我們在第二季公佈的強勁業績相比,調整後毛利率提高了 60 個基點,達到 46.5%,第三季末調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 17.2%。
Mentioned earlier, the margin improvement came in our key focus areas of quality, input costs and logistics.
前面提到,利潤率的提高來自於我們的品質、投入成本和物流等關鍵領域。
It is becoming increasingly apparent that the improved organizational capability, improved analytics systems and intense focus on those drivers of profit improvement are not only working but generating better results than we had expected and sooner than we had anticipated.
越來越明顯的是,組織能力的提高、分析系統的改進以及對利潤提高驅動因素的高度關注不僅發揮了作用,而且產生了比我們預期更好、更快的結果。
We are very pleased with this progress, but also believe there is significant upside that we can deliver over time.
我們對這一進展感到非常滿意,但也相信隨著時間的推移,我們可以實現顯著的優勢。
I would also like to give you an update on our efforts to expand our capacity.
我還想向您介紹我們為擴大產能所做的努力的最新情況。
As a reminder, we continue to focus our capacity expansion plans on three key drivers of improved capital efficiency.
提醒一下,我們繼續將產能擴張計畫的重點放在提高資本效率的三個關鍵驅動因素。
They are one maximizing the throughput of our existing lines to maximizing the capacity of our three existing sites and three, developing and implementing new technologies that generate more throughput per line.
它們是最大限度地提高我們現有生產線的吞吐量,最大限度地提高我們三個現有站點和三個站點的容量,開發和實施新技術,使每條生產線產生更多的吞吐量。
We're making good progress against all three parts of that strategy.
我們在該戰略的所有三個部分方面都取得了良好進展。
In Q3, we achieved another milestone with the startup of the fourth line.
第三季度,隨著第四條生產線的啟動,我們又實現了另一個里程碑。
Munis are rolling giving us to bank lines and to rural lines at that site.
市政設施正在滾動,為我們提供了該地點的銀行線路和農村線路。
Fourth line started up one.
第四行啟動了一條。
We currently under budget and ramped up faster than we had projected.
目前我們的預算低於預算,但成長速度比我們預期的還要快。
We have also largely completed the installation of the fifth line, which will be our third goal line and NS. because it was more efficient to install to roll lines at the same time in the new space.
我們還基本上完成了第五條線的安裝,這將是我們的第三條球門線和 NS。因為在新空間同時安裝軋製線效率更高。
That pipeline will be commissioned in Q4.
該管道將在第四季度投入運作。
And between those two new lines will have enough rolls capacity for last well into 2026.
這兩條新生產線將擁有足夠的捲產能,足以維持到 2026 年。
Once we are fully staffed those lines, we are in the final stages of installing our mixed bag line in Kitchen South and expect that to start up in late Q1 of next year.
一旦我們為這些生產線配備了充足的人員,我們就處於在廚房南安裝混合袋生產線的最後階段,預計將於明年第一季末啟動。
We've also added staffing at Kitchen South on the existing lines so that we will have adequate bag capacity for the balance of 24 and into 2025.
我們還在現有生產線上增加了 Kitchen South 的工作人員,以便我們有足夠的行李容量來滿足 24 個月和 2025 年的需求。
In Bethlehem, the team is focused on it.
在伯利恆,團隊專注於此。
Increasing capacity utilization or OE. on our existing lines are fresh pet performance excellence program has driven sizable gains in throughput, yield and quality since it was launched almost two years ago, and we believe that investment is unlocked a sizable amount of free capacity.
提高產能利用率或 OE。在我們現有的生產線上,自兩年前推出以來,新鮮寵物性能卓越計劃已在吞吐量、產量和品質方面帶來了可觀的收益,我們相信投資可以釋放大量的可用產能。
We believe there is significant upside remaining, and we are increasing the resources we devote the best land team has also in the process of I might have remodeling some dry storage space communications to to accommodate a production line that uses the new technology for our bank products.
我們相信還有很大的上升空間,我們正在增加我們投入的資源,最好的土地團隊也在這個過程中,我可能會改造一些乾燥的存儲空間通信,以適應為我們的銀行產品使用新技術的生產線。
That line is on track for startup in the second half of 2025.
該線路預計將於 2025 年下半年啟動。
In summary, I think we are making good progress improving that we can reliably deliver improved operating performance and strong growth simultaneously.
總而言之,我認為我們在改進方面取得了良好的進展,我們可以可靠地同時實現改善的經營業績和強勁的成長。
Disciplined growth is the result of our strengthened organizational capability, improved analytics systems and intense focus that has enabled us to generate outsized gains in productivity and profitability.
有紀律的成長是我們加強組織能力、改善分析系統和高度關注的結果,使我們能夠在生產力和獲利能力方面取得巨大的進步。
We are increasingly confident that we can sustain this type of performance and deliver the levels of shareholder returns that we believe the proprietary fresh pet business model is capable of generating.
我們越來越有信心能夠維持這種類型的業績,並提供我們認為專有的新鮮寵物業務模式所能產生的股東回報水準。
Now let me turn it over to Todd to walk through the details of the Q3 results and our updated guidance.
現在讓我將其交給托德,詳細介紹第三季的結果和我們更新的指導。
Tom?
湯姆?
Thank you, Billy, and good morning, everyone.
謝謝你,比利,大家早安。
As Billy mentioned, we are very pleased with the third quarter results, particularly our ability to deliver a profit improvement.
正如比利所提到的,我們對第三季的業績非常滿意,特別是我們實現利潤改善的能力。
Now I give you some color, some color on our financials and updated guidance for the year.
現在我給你們一些顏色,一些關於我們的財務狀況和今年更新指導的顏色。
Third-quarter net sales were 253,400,000.0, up 26% year over year.
第三季淨銷售額為253,400,000.0,較去年同期成長26%。
Nielsen measured dollar growth was 23% versus the prior year period with broad-based consumption growth across channels.
尼爾森測算,與去年同期相比,美元成長率為 23%,各通路的消費成長基礎廣泛。
We sold 24% growth in XAOC. 22% in U.S. food, 11% growth in pet specialty and over 70% growth in the unmeasured channel.
我們銷售的 XAOC 成長了 24%。美國食品成長 22%,寵物專業成長 11%,未測量通路成長超過 70%。
Third quarter adjusted gross margin was 46.5%, up 630 basis points year over year.
第三季調整後毛利率為46.5%,較去年成長630個基點。
This was driven by improvements in input costs, yield throughput and quality cost.
這是由投入成本、產量和品質成本的改善所推動的。
Specifically, input costs as a percent of net sales improved 450 basis points versus year ago due to better yields and lower commodity costs and quality and cost improved two by 220 basis points versus year ago.
具體而言,由於產量提高和商品成本降低,投入成本佔淨銷售額的百分比比去年同期提高了 450 個基點,而品質和成本比去年同期提高了 220 個基點。
We did have a timing benefit in our quality costs that will reverse in Q4, but it was a strong quarter.
我們確實在品質成本方面獲得了時機優勢,這種優勢將在第四季度逆轉,但這是一個強勁的季度。
Nonetheless, third quarter adjusted SG&A was 29.3% of net sales compared to 28.6% in the prior year period.
儘管如此,第三季調整後的 SG&A 佔淨銷售額的 29.3%,而去年同期為 28.6%。
We spent 10.8% of net sales of media in the quarter, up from 9.5% of net sales in the prior year period.
本季我們花了媒體淨銷售額的 10.8%,高於去年同期的 9.5%。
Total media investment was up 43% year over year.
媒體總投資年增 43%。
Recall, our media plan was less front loaded this year than in years past so that we can manage our growth to live within our capacity limits.
回想一下,今年我們的媒體計畫比往年少一些,因此我們可以在容量限制內管理我們的成長。
As a result, our media investment in the back half of 2024 will grow significantly faster than our sales will grow, and that will position us for a faster start in 2025.
因此,我們在 2024 年下半年的媒體投資成長速度將明顯快於我們的銷售額成長速度,這將使我們能夠在 2025 年更快地起步。
Logistics costs continued to improve and were 5.6% of net sales in the second quarter, a decrease of 120 basis points compared to the prior year period.
物流成本持續改善,佔第二季淨銷售額的 5.6%,較去年同期下降 120 個基點。
The majority of the improvement was due to strategic actions we have taken to increase fill rates, reduced miles, driven by increasing the number of states served by our second distribution center and negotiations with various carriers with the remainder being more macro, driven with more favorable lane rates and lower diesel costs.
大部分的改善是由於我們採取了戰略行動來提高填充率,減少里程,這是由於增加了我們的第二個配送中心所服務的州的數量以及與各個承運商的談判,其餘的則更加宏觀,並受到了更優惠的推動。
Other SG&A, which was 13% of net sales, increased 60 basis points, driven by higher incentive compensation.
在更高的激勵薪酬的推動下,其他 SG&A 佔淨銷售額的 13%,增加了 60 個基點。
Third quarter adjusted EBITDA was $43.5 million or 17.2% of net sales compared to $23.2 million or 11.6% of net sales in the prior year period.
第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 4,350 萬美元,佔淨銷售額的 17.2%,而去年同期為 2,320 萬美元,佔淨銷售額的 11.6%。
This improvement was primarily driven by higher gross margin as well as well as improved logistics costs, partially offset by higher media investment incentive comp capital spending in the third quarter was 34 million.
這項改善主要是由較高的毛利率以及改善的物流成本推動的,但部分被較高的媒體投資激勵補償資本支出所抵消,第三季資本支出為 3,400 萬美元。
This was lower than expected due to the timing of projects and payments.
由於項目和付款的時間安排,這一數字低於預期。
We expect a much higher rate of spend adding in the fourth quarter.
我們預計第四季度的支出成長速度會更高。
However, we are lowering the estimate of capital spending this year due to the timing of projects.
然而,由於專案的時間安排,我們降低了今年的資本支出估計。
We now expect CapEx this year to be approximately $180 million versus the previous guidance of 200 million.
我們現在預計今年的資本支出約為 1.8 億美元,而先前的指引為 2 億美元。
Operating cash flow in the third quarter was 56.1 million, and we have cash on hand of 274.6 million at the end of the quarter.
第三季營運現金流為5,610萬,季末我們手頭現金為2.746億。
We continue to believe that we have adequate cash to fully fund our growth through 2025, and we will be free cash flow positive in 2026.
我們仍然相信,我們有足夠的現金來為 2025 年之前的成長提供充足的資金,並且我們將在 2026 年實現正自由現金流。
Our strong improvement in adjusted EBITDA this year also makes it unlikely we will need any additional capital.
今年調整後 EBITDA 的強勁改善也使得我們不太可能需要任何額外資本。
We generated $11.9 million in net income in the third quarter, bringing our year to date net income to 28.8 million.
第三季我們實現了 1,190 萬美元的淨利潤,使今年迄今的淨利潤達到 2,880 萬美元。
Now turning to guidance for 2024.
現在轉向 2024 年指導。
We are updating our outlook to reflect our outperformance in the third quarter as well as our conviction in our ability to execute in the final quarter of the year.
我們正在更新我們的展望,以反映我們在第三季度的優異表現以及我們對今年最後季度執行能力的信心。
We are raising our net sales guidance from at least 565 million to approximately 975 million or growth of around 27%.
我們將淨銷售額指引從至少 5.65 億美元提高到約 9.75 億美元,增幅約 27%。
We are able to do this because of the significant improvements in our operating efficiency and the strong startup of the new role line in Ennis collect.
我們能夠做到這一點,是因為我們營運效率的顯著提高以及 Ennis Collect 新角色系列的強勁啟動。
I believe these efforts will allow us to sell a bit more of this year and we had originally projected and still maintain strong customer service.
我相信這些努力將使我們今年的銷售量增加一些,我們最初計劃並仍然保持強大的客戶服務。
We are also keeping in mind that the capacity needed to support next year's growth and do not want to get too far ahead of our original plans.
我們也牢記支持明年成長所需的產能,並且不希望超出我們最初的計劃太多。
As far as cadence, we continue to expect net sales to up sequentially lower percentage growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 as the lower first half media spending will result in slower growth in the second half, something that we deliberately did to manage our growth to live within our capacity limits in our business.
就節奏而言,我們繼續預計 2024 年第四季度淨銷售額將環比增長,因為上半年媒體支出較低將導致下半年增長放緩,這是我們故意採取的管理增長的方式在我們的業務能力範圍內生活。
The first half media investment really dictate is that demand we will have in the second half of the year and the second half media investment will drive the demand we experienced in the first half of next year.
上半年的媒體投資真正決定的是我們下半年的需求,而下半年的媒體投資將推動我們明年上半年的需求。
For this reason, our second half of the investment will be significantly larger than the investment we made in the previous year.
因此,我們下半年的投資將明顯大於去年的投資。
We are expecting second half 2020 for media investment to be more than 50% larger than the comparable prior year period.
我們預計 2020 年下半年媒體投資將比去年同期成長 50% 以上。
For adjusted EBITDA, we are raising guidance from at least 140 million to at least $155 million to reflect the over-delivery in Q3.
對於調整後的 EBITDA,我們將指引值從至少 1.4 億美元提高到至少 1.55 億美元,以反映第三季的超額交付。
We now expect the gross adjusted gross margin to expand by approximately 600 basis points for the full year compared to 500 basis point previously.
我們目前預計全年調整後毛利率將由先前的 500 個基點擴大約 600 個基點。
Capital expenditures are now projected to be approximately $180 million compared to approximately 200 million previously to support the installation of capacity to meet demand in 2025.
目前預計資本支出約 1.8 億美元,先前的資本支出約為 2 億美元,用於支持產能建設以滿足 2025 年的需求。
The reduction is due to the timing of certain expansion projects.
減少的原因是某些擴建工程的時間安排。
Some of that reduction and we'll push spending into 2025.
我們將減少部分支出,並將支出延後到 2025 年。
In summary, the third quarter results have continued to build our confidence in our ability to deliver our long-term financial goals.
總之,第三季的業績持續增強了我們對實現長期財務目標能力的信心。
We are operating more effectively and more efficiently, and you can see that up and down the P&L and the way we show up to our customers and consumers.
我們的營運更加高效,您可以從損益表以及我們向客戶和消費者展示的方式中看到這一點。
We believe that is the result of our investments in capacity and organizational capabilities as they are now delivering the scale benefits we believe are possible in the fresh that business model.
我們相信,這是我們對能力和組織能力進行投資的結果,因為它們現在正在提供我們認為在新的商業模式中可能實現的規模效益。
That concludes our overview.
我們的概述到此結束。
We will now be glad to answer your questions.
我們現在很高興回答您的問題。
Operator?
操作員?
Thank you, Assi.
謝謝你,阿西。
We'd like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad.
我們想問一個問題,請按電話鍵盤上的星號一。
A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue, you may press star Cantina.
確認音將表示您的線路已在問題佇列中,您可以按星號 Cantina。
Thanks to remove your question from the can't answer participant G handsets before pressing the star keys, we ask that you please limit to one question.
感謝您在按星號鍵之前從無法回答參與者 G 手機中刪除您的問題,我們要求您將問題限制為一個。
Our first question is from Mark Astrachan with Stifel.
我們的第一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Mark Astrachan。
Please proceed.
請繼續。
Yes, thanks and good morning, everybody.
是的,謝謝大家,早安。
Obviously, really, really good results here in the quarter and the guidance, maybe a bit of a different hat.
顯然,本季的業績和指導確實非常非常好,也許有點不同。
I wanted to ask about expansion of the business from a top-line standpoint in some of the less focused areas.
我想從營收的角度詢問一些不太受關注的領域的業務擴張。
So I've seen some things about looking at expanding the U. S D to C business beyond a test.
因此,我看到了一些關於考慮將美國 D 到 C 業務擴展到測試之外的事情。
It looks like there could be some incremental news potentially at some point.
看起來在某個時候可能會有一些增量新聞。
There's maybe talk a bit about kind of effort in that space, what you see the opportunity path to success, kind of what you've learned so far?
也許會討論一下在這個領域的努力,你認為成功的機會之路是什麼,到目前為止你學到了什麼?
And I'm looking outside the US in particular, Europe also, it seems like there's some effort there around accelerating are refocusing on that business.
我特別關注美國以外的地區,還有歐洲,似乎有一些努力正在加速重新關注這項業務。
I think that person and it starts and stops and focus there.
我認為那個人和它開始、停止並集中在那裡。
So maybe talk a bit about those.
所以也許可以談談這些。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Yes, Mark disability.
是的,馬克殘疾。
I'll take the second part of your question, Scott.
我將回答你問題的第二部分,斯科特。
I'll take the first part of your question.
我將回答你問題的第一部分。
I'll recall at the beginning of this year, we said the folks that we felt really good about the European business in the business model that was there, but we didn't feel very good about the reliability of the supply chain.
我記得今年年初,我們對人們說,我們對歐洲業務的商業模式感覺非常好,但我們對供應鏈的可靠性感覺不太好。
So we do levered to work on ways to create a more reliable supply chain Europe before we make any decision about investing any further in that market on those tests are underway, we feel very good about the progress we're making, but there's no conclusion yet.
因此,在我們做出進一步投資該市場的任何決定之前,我們確實會努力研究如何創建更可靠的歐洲供應鏈,這些測試正在進行中,我們對正在取得的進展感到非常滿意,但還沒有結論然而。
No definitive plan to do anything more than what we're already doing today.
除了我們今天已經在做的事情之外,沒有明確的計劃可以做更多的事情。
And we like the consumer dynamics there.
我們喜歡那裡的消費者動態。
I think the Freshpet business has long-term potential there, but we want to make sure we get it right when we actually do it.
我認為 Freshpet 業務在這方面具有長期潛力,但我們希望確保在實際操作時能夠正確執行。
So at this point, we're still in the testing and validation phase, particularly on the supply chain side of it, turn it to Scott, tell you a little bit about the DTC. side of things.
因此,目前我們仍處於測試和驗證階段,特別是在供應鏈方面,請將其交給 Scott,告訴您一些有關 DTC 的資訊。事情的一面。
And Mark.
還有馬克。
So look, the way we think about eCommerce, I think you're, you know, pretty well, but basically, the majority of what we consider e-commerce is click and collect for us.
所以,看看我們對電子商務的看法,我認為你知道,非常清楚,但基本上,我們認為電子商務的大部分內容都是點擊提貨。
It's about like around 60% of our total.
大約占我們總數的 60% 左右。
And the vast majority of what we're seeing is about 87 percentage coming from our fridge network.
我們看到的絕大多數大約 87% 來自我們的冰箱網路。
So that's really where the majority of it is.
所以這確實是大部分內容所在。
Now we are always doing a lot of tech.
現在我們一直在做很多技術。
We know there's a lot of opportunity for us to open up and make sure that we're giving people other opportunities to purchase from us in different ways.
我們知道我們有很多機會開放並確保我們為人們提供其他機會以不同的方式從我們這裡購買。
So we're always continuing to test.
所以我們一直在繼續測試。
We have opened up our D to C just a little bit on the tested, a little bit of expansion and understand how it's working.
我們已經在測試中稍微開放了 D 到 C,進行了一點擴展並了解它是如何工作的。
But right now this is something I think in a test-and-learn phase and test and learn mode on similar to what Bill was talking about.
但現在我認為這是在測試和學習階段以及測試和學習模式,類似於比爾所說的。
As you know, in Europe, especially we have all these places where we're kind of planting seeds and understanding how those models work, how we're winning faster than the returns that we gave getting on them.
如你所知,在歐洲,尤其是在所有這些地方,我們都在播下種子,了解這些模式如何運作,以及我們如何以比我們給予它們的回報更快的速度獲勝。
But right now, these are very small piece of our business at this point.
但目前,這些只是我們業務的一小部分。
And what we're doing is as we learn enough and we feel confident those are places that we potentially invest in and see if we can drive well above our kind of standard growth rate of call it around 25%.
我們正在做的是,當我們了解得足夠多時,我們對這些領域充滿信心,我們可能會投資這些領域,看看我們是否能夠遠高於我們的標準成長率,即 25% 左右。
Our next question is from Ken Goldman with JPMorgan.
我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的肯‧戈德曼。
Please proceed.
請繼續。
Hi, good morning, and thank you, Tom.
嗨,早上好,謝謝你,湯姆。
I wanted to ask on gross margin on the commentary is now being focused on consistent performance after the obviously, it's still an improvement in that gross margin rate.
我想問一下關於毛利率的評論,現在的重點是穩定的業績,顯然,毛利率仍然有所改善。
And how do we think of the comment about consistent performance, which I think some people might interpret sort of as I say, it will be kind of flattish from here in light of the prior comments that you're looking at new technology to help with throughput of inefficiency.
我們如何看待關於一致性能的評論,我認為有些人可能會像我說的那樣解釋,鑑於您之前正在尋找新技術來幫助解決問題的評論,從這裡開始它會有點平淡吞吐量低效。
Maybe you have that new technology coming in later next year, it sounds like.
聽起來,也許明年晚些時候就會推出新技術。
So just kind of wanted to balance those comments and getting kind of get a general sense of how you see the gross margin path ahead.
因此,我只是想平衡這些評論,並大致了解您如何看待未來的毛利率路徑。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Yet again, as Todd.
再次,作為托德。
So look, we're obviously thrilled with the performance this year hitting year to date, almost 46%, and that's cutting met our guidance for the year.
所以看,我們顯然對今年迄今為止的表現感到興奮,幾乎達到了 46%,這符合我們今年的指導。
So we think we'll have another solid quarter in Q4.
因此,我們認為第四季將有另一個穩定的季度。
Clearly, we do not anticipate that the end we're obviously ahead of our long-term target of 45.
顯然,我們預計最終不會明顯領先 45 的長期目標。
So that's fantastic.
所以這太棒了。
That were three years ahead of schedule.
這比原計劃提前了三年。
But we still think we have tons and tons of opportunities.
但我們仍然認為我們有無數的機會。
What that path exactly looks like over the next couple of years, I think we'll talk more at year end will be a category.
未來幾年這條道路到底是什麼樣子,我想我們將在年底多討論一個類別。
So we can explain that and we'll more a little bit more depth.
所以我們可以解釋這一點,並且我們會更深入一些。
But obviously, as we talk about all the time, there's three areas of focus here where we think each of each of them still has upside.
但顯然,正如我們一直在談論的那樣,這裡有三個重點領域,我們認為每個領域仍然都有優勢。
one is getting more efficiency out of the lines that we have.
一是提高現有生產線的效率。
We made great progress, particularly in Bethlehem, what we are a lot more work to go.
我們取得了巨大的進展,特別是在伯利恆,我們還有很多工作要做。
And we've seen from some positive signs in the last couple of months in U.S. and feel good about the future.
我們從過去幾個月美國的一些積極跡像中看到了這一點,並對未來感到樂觀。
They're getting more more capacity out of all the facilities that we have.
他們正在從我們擁有的所有設施中獲得更多的產能。
So we're going to get it or we're going to use every square inch to make sure we have the right capital efficiency there.
因此,我們將得到它,或者我們將利用每一平方英寸來確保我們在那裡擁有適當的資本效率。
And then as you mentioned, new technologies from the line should come up at the end of next year.
正如您所提到的,該系列的新技術應該會在明年年底出現。
So it's going to be early days and we won't know exactly kind of where we are until the end of next year.
所以現在還為時過早,直到明年年底我們才能確切知道我們的情況。
We're optimistic.
我們很樂觀。
We're we think we have something that could be very, very interesting, but that's going to take a couple of years to play out.
我們認為我們有一些可能非常非常有趣的東西,但這需要幾年的時間才能實現。
So in summary, look, we're going to hit around 46% for the year, which again is terrific.
總而言之,我們今年的成長率將達到 46% 左右,這也是非常棒的。
We're not stopping there.
我們不會就此止步。
We think there's significant more upside to come.
我們認為未來還會有更大的上升空間。
Thank you.
謝謝。
And then for a follow-up thinking about next year, I realize it's too early for specific numbers.
然後對於明年的後續思考,我意識到現在給出具體數字還為時過早。
You have talked a little bit about the cadence just in terms of how you expect the second half of 24 media to kind of influence the first half of 25.
您已經就節奏進行了一些討論,即您預計 24 種媒體的後半部分將如何影響 25 種媒體的前半部分。
And I'm just kind of get a sense.
我只是有點明白了。
Are there any other kind of tailwinds headwinds we should be thinking about right now?
現在我們還應該考慮其他類型的順風和逆風嗎?
You did talk about inflation a little bit.
您確實談到了通貨膨脹。
The release mentioned the word.
新聞稿中提到了這個字。
Wanted to get a little bit of color there, if you could, at this time many kind of insight that you're ready to provide them, I'm sure would be appreciated.
希望在那裡獲得一點色彩,如果可以的話,此時您準備向他們提供多種見解,我相信我們將不勝感激。
Yes.
是的。
So look, um, or still early days for 25 planning from everything we're seeing right now in the commodity bucket.
因此,從我們目前在商品桶中看到的所有內容來看,25 計劃仍處於早期階段。
I guess it's still too early, but I'll just I'll just say it's looking kind of flattish right now.
我想現在還太早,但我只想說現在看起來有點平淡。
So, um, what as you know, kind of lock in a lot of our commodities content in the December time period, particularly our proteins.
所以,嗯,正如你所知,在 12 月期間鎖定了我們的許多商品含量,特別是我們的蛋白質。
So we're getting closer to that.
所以我們離這個目標越來越近了。
You are obviously talking with people every week on that.
顯然你每週都會與人們談論這個問題。
Again, it feels kind of flattish, but that could change a lot in the next month or two.
再次,感覺有點平淡,但在接下來的一兩個月內可能會發生很大變化。
So no other big updates of, but we're not seeing any surprises right now.
所以沒有其他重大更新,但我們現在沒有看到任何驚喜。
Our next question is from Rupesh Parikh with Oppenheimer & Co. Please proceed.
我們的下一個問題來自奧本海默公司的 Rupesh Parikh。
Good morning.
早安.
Thanks for taking my question on sort of maybe two macro questions for me.
感謝您就我的兩個宏觀問題提出問題。
So just want to get your latest thoughts on the tire category where you're seeing from the cloud adoption side and on your business continues to be tremendous momentum.
因此,我只想了解您對輪胎類別的最新想法,您從雲端採用方面看到輪胎類別以及您的業務繼續保持巨大的勢頭。
So just curious if you're seeing any shifts in consumer behavior.
所以只是好奇您是否看到消費者行為有任何變化。
Hey, we're cash, Scott.
嘿,我們有現金,史考特。
So on the pet category, basically what we're seeing is looking in the traditional brick and mortar is on is not doing as well from a growth standpoint that they have historically.
因此,在寵物類別上,基本上我們所看到的是,從歷史上成長的角度來看,傳統實體店的表現並不好。
There's definitely a little bit of softness there, but it's in the kind of a couple of points down versus prior periods, et cetera.
那裡肯定有一點疲軟,但與之前的時期相比,下降了幾個百分點,等等。
But remember, there was a ton of expansion for for a while where we are seeing a lot of that growth is definitely some more and more of it's coming from online.
但請記住,有一段時間出現了大量的擴張,我們看到很多成長肯定是越來越多來自線上。
So if you look at kind of any type of omnichannel piece, you're seeing like still a couple of points of growth on the long long-term algorithm that I've always used for the overall pet category growth.
因此,如果您查看任何類型的全通路作品,您會發現我一直用於整體寵物類別成長的長期演算法仍然有幾個增長點。
You might have a few within six months or year.
您可能會在六個月或一年內擁有一些。
But that's typically what you see that sticking with it.
但這通常就是你所看到的堅持下去的結果。
And that's what we're seeing right now.
這就是我們現在所看到的。
We're seeing around like a 3% growth.
我們預計成長率約為 3%。
If you look at everything on like omnichannel from a from an adoption standpoint, we looked at these things kind of kind of go up and down in ways.
如果你從採用的角度來看全通路上的一切,我們會看到這些事情在某種程度上有起有落。
We think from everything we're seeing, it come back in at of more consistent pace on there is definitely some trends that are starting to develop around Doxis.
我們認為,從我們所看到的一切來看,它以更加一致的速度回歸,因為肯定有一些圍繞 Doxis 的趨勢正在開始發展。
Again, they again, they come and go.
再次,他們再次,他們來了又走。
We're starting to see a little bit more towards smaller and medium sized dogs.
我們開始更專注於中小型犬。
Again, again, it just slightly on where you're seeing more and more those dogs kind of adopted in income, numerous homes a bit more.
再說一次,這只是一點點,你會看到越來越多的狗被收養,越來越多的家庭被收養。
But that's actually a good thing for us.
但這對我們來說其實是一件好事。
If you look at where we typically over index, that's typically what people are smaller and medium-sized dogs.
如果你看看我們通常過度索引的地方,那就是人們通常是中小型犬。
We don't have quite as well with large of although we're making a lot of progress with our large new large dog product on continuing to kind of come out of the gate and do really really well.
儘管我們在大型新大型狗產品方面取得了很大進展,但我們在大型犬方面的表現還不太好,並且繼續表現出色。
Our next question is from Robert Moskow with key talent.
我們的下一個問題來自羅伯特·莫斯科(Robert Moskow)和關鍵人才。
Please proceed.
請繼續。
Hi, and congrats again on a couple of questions.
你好,再次恭喜你回答了幾個問題。
I think the the target for sales is like close to 2 billion less than that, but for 2027 and as you're evaluating, you know, revising your long-term guide, are you evaluating like introducing another time series like beyond 2027?
我認為銷售目標比這個少近 20 億,但對於 2027 年,當你評估時,你知道,修改你的長期指南,你的評估是否像引入 2027 年之後的另一個時間序列?
Is that part of that the decision making that you're doing?
這是您正在做的決策的一部分嗎?
And would that also entail spending to expand your footprint beyond, you know, beyond Dennis and behind beyond what you have in Pennsylvania?
這是否還需要花錢擴大你的足跡,超越丹尼斯,超越賓州?
And then a follow-up, please?
然後有後續嗎?
Yes, or Rob on.
是的,或者羅布。
We haven't made a decision on what we'll look at for updating guidance.
我們尚未決定更新指南的內容。
If we do that sometime next year, there's everything has got to be taking a look at the one of the things that we do spend a lot of time thinking about this capacity planning, which is embedded in how we think about the long-term guidance and also part of your question.
如果我們明年某個時候這樣做,那麼一切都必須考慮我們確實花費大量時間思考這一容量規劃的一件事,這根植於我們對長期指導的思考方式中也是你問題的一部分。
But I would remind you that within our existing footprint of the three sites that we have today, we have capacity to get us to the 2 billion net sales.
但我要提醒您的是,在我們現有的三個站點的覆蓋範圍內,我們有能力實現 20 億美元的淨銷售額。
Our guidance for $1.8 billion.
我們的指引值為 18 億美元。
We need to have a run rate that's ahead of that.
我們需要有一個領先的運行率。
When you get there, we can get well north of 2 billion by two with the existing footprint.
當你到達那裡時,我們可以用現有的足跡遠遠超過 20 億乘二。
So any decision on expanding the footprint beyond where we are would influence periods that would go well beyond 2027?
那麼,任何擴大足跡的決定都會影響 2027 年之後的時期嗎?
We won't need any capacity beyond that footprint until probably 29 or 30, depending on how our new technology plays out, what our efficiencies due and whatnot.
大約在 29 或 30 年前,我們將不需要超出該足跡的任何容量,這取決於我們的新技術如何發揮作用、我們的效率如何等等。
So at this point, there's really no conclusion.
所以到了這個時候,其實還沒有什麼結論。
A division where we've got all the variables will look at all of them will make the right decision based on the best inputs in the best visibility that we have.
我們擁有所有變數的部門將查看所有變量,並將根據我們擁有的最佳可見性的最佳輸入做出正確的決策。
Our next question is from Brian Holland with D.A. Davidson.
我們的下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Brian Holland。戴維森。
Please proceed.
請繼續。
Thanks.
謝謝。
Good morning.
早安.
I believe guidance implies a 24% net sales growth against relative media spend of 9% in the back half of 24.
我認為指導意味著 24 年下半年淨銷售額成長 24%,而相對媒體支出成長 9%。
I obviously realize that's a bit of a condensed window as opposed to looking at a more annualized.
我顯然意識到,這有點像一個濃縮的窗口,而不是查看更年化的窗口。
But just curious whether that dynamic is indicative of what that all of how you see 25 shaping at this point, particularly on the media side?
但只是好奇這種動態是否表明了您目前對 25 的塑造方式的看法,特別是在媒體方面?
Yes, Brian, I would characterize it is the media in the back half of the year would indicate the momentum and household penetration gains we get as we head into the first half of next year.
是的,布萊恩,我認為下半年的媒體將顯示我們進入明年上半年時所獲得的動力和家庭滲透率的成長。
So looking at the spending in the back half and the growth rate in the back half, you're sort of looking at two things that are not time Align.
因此,看看後半部的支出和後半部的成長率,你會看到兩件與時間不一致的事情。
The growth rate in the back half of this year is related to the spending we had in the first half of this year, the spending in the second half of this year's what will drive the growth rate in the first half of next year.
今年下半年的成長速度與我們今年上半年的支出有關,今年下半年的支出將帶動明年上半年的成長速度。
Um, so we do know that as we get the significant media spending that we're making in the back half of this year relative to what we've done in previous years, we expect that to be the thing that starts driving the household penetration growth back up again, and you'll start seeing that in the first half of next year.
嗯,所以我們確實知道,與前幾年相比,今年下半年我們的媒體支出相當可觀,我們預計這將開始推動家庭滲透率增長再次回升,你將在明年上半年開始看到這一點。
And then that obviously will turn into volume growth that begins in the first half of next year and continues through the back half of the year.
然後,這顯然將轉化為從明年上半年開始並持續到今年下半年的銷售成長。
Our next question is from Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.
我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。
Please proceed.
請繼續。
Thanks, operator.
謝謝,接線生。
Good morning, everyone.
大家早安。
You know, given the, um, I guess some of the comments and things you teased out in terms of updating long term targets and objectives.
你知道,考慮到,嗯,我想你在更新長期目標和目標方面提出了一些評論和事情。
I guess bigger bigger question is thinking about is it's very rare in consumer packaged goods for a category to develop and gain substantially on shelf space with really just one player in the category on retailers tend to like multiple options, multiple price points.
我想更大的問題是要考慮的是,在消費包裝商品中,很少有一個類別能夠發展並在貨架空間上獲得大幅增長,而零售商實際上只有該類別中的一個參與者往往喜歡多種選擇、多個價格點。
And if we think about fresh as a subsegment of the total pet food category, just how does that factor into your thinking about expansion to gaining share of fresh, gaining share of the pet food category like 10 that happen with what is effectively at least in brick by brick and mortar retail effectively, you know, like what horse in the race?
如果我們將新鮮食品視為整個寵物食品類別的一個子部分,那麼這將如何影響您對擴張以獲取新鮮食品份額的考慮,獲得寵物食品類別的份額(例如10),這種情況至少在有效的情況下發生實體零售有效地進行,您知道,就像比賽中的哪匹馬一樣?
Yes, Brian, this is the thing that we've been spending a lot of time thinking about since we launched the growth in 2017, which is the reality is that this is a very scale-driven business.
是的,Brian,自從我們在 2017 年啟動成長以來,這是我們花了很多時間思考的事情,事實是,這是一個非常規模驅動的業務。
And there are enormous advantages to somebody who build scale in it, whether that's in manufacturing, whether that's the fridge placements at retail, where that's distribution and logistics that go with it.
對於在其中建立規模的人來說,無論是在製造業,無論是零售業的冰箱放置,還是與之相伴的分銷和物流,都會有巨大的優勢。
And our goal was to get ourselves in a position where we had an enormous head start and a significant scale advantage against somebody who came behind us.
我們的目標是讓自己處於領先地位,並在與落後者的競爭中獲得顯著的規模優勢。
Clearly, anybody else income at can we can enter this category.
顯然,任何其他人的收入都可以進入這個類別。
We've seen that from margin from General Mills, and we'd expect to see others to come along as well.
我們已經從通用磨坊的利潤率中看到了這一點,我們預計其他公司也會出現同樣的情況。
Whether they be able to compete effectively against what we've built is remains to be seen.
他們是否能夠與我們所建構的產品進行有效競爭還有待觀察。
But in terms of you look back over time, your observation is a fairly good one.
但從你回顧過去的角度來看,你的觀察是相當不錯的。
But the reality is the category creator of the guidance creates the category.
但現實是指南的類別創建者創建了類別。
If they do a really good job, which is what we're shooting to do.
如果他們做得非常好,這就是我們想要做的。
Ends up with the lion's share of the market share, whether you think about Gatorade, a 75 share or do you think about, you know, Keurig Green Mountain, any of these guys are really key created a big category.
最終獲得了最大的市場份額,無論你想到佳得樂,75%的份額,還是你知道的 Keurig Green Mountain,這些人中的任何一個都是創建一個大類別的關鍵。
They own the lion's share of the category and the bulk of the profits, if not more than 100% of the category profits.
他們擁有該品類的最大份額和大部分利潤,甚至超過該品類利潤的 100%。
And so that's really where we expect ourselves to go.
所以這確實是我們期望自己去的地方。
We do expect to have competition at some point question is how could those be?
我們確實預期在某個時候會出現競爭,但問題是怎麼可能呢?
Our next question is from Jon Andersen with William Blair.
我們的下一個問題來自喬恩·安德森和威廉·布萊爾。
Please proceed.
請繼續。
Good morning, everybody, and congrats on the quarter on two quick two parter.
早安,大家,恭喜本季的兩個快速二人組。
I distribution of the presentation that shows 9% increase in cubic feet, but a 22% increase in TDP.s.
簡報的 I 分佈顯示,立方英尺增加了 9%,但 TDP.s 增加了 22%。
Just wondering how you kind of square that to come.
只是想知道你如何解決這個問題。
And I think there was a comment in the prepared remarks around of absorbing some shelf space from retailers and fridges.
我認為在準備好的評論中有一條評論是關於吸收零售商和冰箱的一些貨架空間。
If you could talk a little bit about that dynamic in that in the second part is 42% of your locations have second fridges.
如果你能談談第二部分的動態,即 42% 的地點擁有第二台冰箱。
How would you expect that to develop over time based on your conversations with retailers have, where is the white space for second third fridges in terms of channel?
根據您與零售商的對話,您預計隨著時間的推移,這種情況會如何發展,第二個第三個冰箱在通路方面的空白在哪裡?
Thanks.
謝謝。
Hey, John, Scott to, um.
嘿,約翰,斯科特,嗯。
Yes.
是的。
So we look, we've tried to move over time really start thinking about the space that we're picking up from a Cubist one fridges, interesting.
所以我們看起來,隨著時間的推移,我們試著真正開始思考我們從立體派冰箱中獲得的空間,這很有趣。
But we like the reality is for us the second and third fridges, really whether the greatest opportunities lie for us.
但我們喜歡現實是我們的第二台和第三台冰箱,真的,最大的機會是否在我們身上。
So we're continuing to see a lot of sense.
所以我們繼續看到很多意義。
And third fridges being added now and with the added this year, we think is going to be a lot added over the course of the next couple of years as retailers are looking around the category.
現在已經增加了第三台冰箱,隨著今年的增加,我們認為隨著零售商正在尋找該類別,未來幾年將會增加很多。
And if you look look at most retailers, they looked up and down the category and they're going what's going on properties brands and what's coming off a going on across these segments.
如果你看看大多數零售商,他們會上下查看該類別,他們會關注房地產品牌的情況以及這些細分市場的情況。
And then recognizing that Fresh is really where the game it is coming from and as they do that they go, wow, I have one fridge 20, the second and potentially a third.
然後認識到 Fresh 確實是遊戲的來源,當他們這樣做時,他們會說,哇,我有一個 20 冰箱,第二個,可能還有第三個。
And we're having conversations with a few people, maybe you can afford.
我們正在與一些人交談,也許你能負擔得起。
And that's a little bit premature.
這有點為時過早。
But we see consistent growth coming from bridge expansion.
但我們看到橋樑擴建帶來的持續成長。
On the what we are starting to see is there are couple of retailers.
我們開始看到有幾家零售商。
And I would say they literally just literally a handful that are kind of tinkering and trying a couple of different fresh layouts and formats with some of their own models and some of their own fridges.
我想說,他們實際上只是少數人,他們正在修補和嘗試一些不同的新鮮佈局和格式,以及他們自己的一些型號和一些冰箱。
The aluminum has really substantial number of their own fridges as Wal-Mart.
鋁製冰箱的數量確實與沃爾瑪一樣多。
They had made an investment in IT.
他們對 IT 進行了投資。
That investment was originally intended to help blue.
這筆投資原本是為了幫助藍色。
And then obviously it, I believe June Caesar rollout and in addition to some of their private-label products and happened over time as they made that investment was, I think, a really interesting decision for them.
顯然,我相信 June Caesar 的推出以及他們的一些自有品牌產品以及隨著時間的推移隨著他們進行投資而發生的,我認為對他們來說是一個非常有趣的決定。
It is a heavy lift, not only from a capital standpoint, but from a maintenance standpoint and those products we didn't play out to what I think anyone had imagined on any side of the fence.
這是一個沉重的負擔,不僅從資本的角度來看,而且從維護的角度來看,我們沒有按照我認為任何人在柵欄的任何一邊所想像的那樣發揮這些產品。
I think Wal-Mart was somewhat disappointing with it.
我認為沃爾瑪對此有些失望。
And now what's happened is we're actually going into many of those bridges.
現在發生的事情是我們實際上正在建造許多這樣的橋樑。
You start to see our products into some of those bridges.
您開始看到我們的產品融入其中的一些橋樑。
And now we'll have a substantial share of that fridge and our products are performing incredibly well.
現在我們將擁有該冰箱的很大份額,並且我們的產品表現非常出色。
Like we are pleasantly pleasantly surprised that being able to put that in new products into those bridges and through the performance that they're delivering, and they continue to kind of grow on a consistent basis.
就像我們感到驚訝的是,能夠將其放入新產品中並通過它們所提供的性能,並且它們將繼續在一致的基礎上增長。
So we love that.
所以我們喜歡這樣。
We were really behind in space at Wal-Mart, and we love that.
我們在沃爾瑪的空間上確實落後了,我們喜歡這一點。
We're able to now kind of grab that additional space in in those fridges and see that happen.
我們現在可以在這些冰箱中佔據額外的空間並看到這種情況的發生。
oh, the Wal-Mart, as I was touching on a minute ago, there really isn't anyone that has any kind of scale around owning their own fridges.
哦,沃爾瑪,正如我剛才談到的那樣,確實沒有任何人能夠擁有自己的冰箱。
And I think most retailers have gotten really comfortable with where bringing something that's incredibly value added very unique, incredibly well managed.
我認為大多數零售商已經非常習慣提供具有令人難以置信的附加價值、非常獨特、管理得非常好的東西。
And I can get into what why it's well managed, but they don't have such a thing.
我可以解釋為什麼它管理得很好,但他們沒有這樣的東西。
We can hear fridge.
我們可以聽到冰箱的聲音。
I've broken fridge within hours, not days and weeks that you'll have many times has because we've built this into another one of these kind of assets and capabilities of the organization.
我在幾個小時內就打破了冰箱,而不是像你經常遇到的那樣,幾天或幾週,因為我們已將其構建到組織的另一種此類資產和能力中。
So And hats off to the French team on, we have less than 1% of fridges down all the time.
向法國團隊致敬,我們的冰箱故障率始終低於 1%。
And we have no, we have 33,000 fridges out there.
我們沒有,我們有 33,000 台冰箱。
It's a small group.
這是一個小團體。
It does great work for us.
它為我們做了很大的工作。
So we think this is an asset that we're developing for the future and a benefit that we're bringing to retailers and most of them aren't anticipating buying their own fridges.
因此,我們認為這是我們為未來開發的資產,也是我們為零售商帶來的好處,而他們中的大多數人並沒有預期購買自己的冰箱。
Our next question is from Peter Benedict with Baird.
我們的下一個問題來自彼得·本尼迪克特和貝爾德。
Please proceed.
請繼續。
Good morning, guys.
早安,夥計們。
Thanks for taking my question.
感謝您提出我的問題。
Wondering if you could talk a little bit about the hiring of Mickey as your as Chief Operating Officer couple of months ago.
想知道您是否可以談談幾個月前聘請米奇擔任營運長的情況。
I'm just kind of curious what she bringing what are maybe initial observations are Nishu, somewhat restricted, which could do initially.
我只是有點好奇她帶來的可能是最初的觀察結果是 Nishu,有些限制,最初可以做。
But I'm just kind of help us understand what you think going back and be on the organization that you guys look to continue to grow over the next few years.
但我只是幫助我們了解你們的想法,並加入你們希望在未來幾年繼續發展的組織。
Yes on.
是的。
Thanks, Peter.
謝謝,彼得。
We're thrilled to have you join us from she's bringing a fresh set of eyes to our business in a different set of capabilities than some of our management has or our team has collectively.
我們很高興您加入我們,因為她為我們的業務帶來了全新的視角,其能力與我們的部分管理層或團隊的整體能力不同。
And so that's been a real breath of fresh air.
所以這是真正的新鮮空氣。
As you alluded to, she does have some limitations in what she the outlet she can do until May of next year.
正如你所提到的,在明年五月之前,她的出口確實有一些限制。
And those limitations restrict your ability to work only in the grocery drug, mass and club channels until then.
在那之前,這些限制限制了你只能在雜貨藥品、大眾和俱樂部管道工作。
So will be a little bit from a little bit limited in the total impact that she can have until that time.
因此,到那時她所能產生的總影響力將會受到一點點限制。
But between now and then she is digging into our existing business, bringing fresh eyes to.
但從現在開始,她正在深入研究我們現有的業務,帶來新的視野。
And we think that's going to be purely additive and adds to our bench strength.
我們認為這將純粹是附加的,並增加我們的替補實力。
We have really big ambitions as a company.
作為一家公司,我們有著遠大的抱負。
We want to be a much bigger player in the pet care category and getting a talent that as of Nikkiso calibers, a huge win for us.
我們希望成為寵物護理領域更大的參與者,並獲得像日機裝這樣的人才,這對我們來說是一個巨大的勝利。
And we think, frankly, it gives us the ability to project further a much bigger business, probably much more expansive business we have today.
坦白說,我們認為,它使我們有能力進一步規劃更大的業務,可能是我們今天擁有的更廣泛的業務。
Our next question is from Tom Palmer with Citi.
我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的湯姆·帕爾默。
Please proceed.
請繼續。
Good morning and thanks for the question.
早安,謝謝你的提問。
I just wanted to ask on on some timing items.
我只是想問一些計時項目。
You kind of netted this year.
今年你算是賺到了。
You noted on this quarter that there was a timing benefit for quality costs in the third quarter of this expected to reverse.
您在本季指出,預計第三季品質成本將出現逆轉。
Just any quantification in detail on what drove that?
只是對驅動因素進行詳細量化嗎?
And then secondly, early in the first quarter of this year, you'd noted in around 100 basis points of operating leverage on the gross margin line.
其次,在今年第一季初,您注意到毛利率線上的營運槓桿約為 100 個基點。
Has that kind of fully reverse at this point?
現在這種情況已經完全逆轉了嗎?
Yes, Todd.
是的,托德。
So on the quality issue, we had a fantastic quarter.
因此,在品質問題上,我們度過了一個精彩的季度。
Disposals were super low, which really helped.
處置量非常低,這確實有幫助。
We did see experience on some higher quality costs in September.
我們確實在 9 月看到了一些更高品質成本的經驗。
The secondary processing piece of the quality component that did not flow through the P & L in September will did flow through the P&L in October.
9月未流入損益表的質量成分的二次加工件將流入10月份的損益表。
That was about a 50 basis point benefit in Q three that we'll see in Q4.
我們將在第四季度看到第三季的大約 50 個基點的收益。
So that number still we will be higher the quality cost number in Q4, but we still feel very, very good about where we are for the year.
因此,這個數字仍然會高於第四季的品質成本數字,但我們仍然對今年的狀況感到非常非常好。
Regarding the 100 basis points of benefit we saw in Q1 as we built inventory, we've seen only it very small portion of that reverse.
關於我們在第一季建立庫存時看到的 100 個基點的收益,我們只看到了這種逆轉的一小部分。
Some of it's still a little bit of a wildcard.
其中一些仍然有點通配符。
We might see a little bit of it reverse in Q4, but I'm not anticipating much of it.
我們可能會在第四季度看到一些逆轉,但我預計不會有太多逆轉。
So most of that inventory benefit will hold.
因此,大部分庫存效益將保持不變。
It's really just a derivative of how fast we're growing and our need to build inventory to supply the business.
這實際上只是我們成長速度以及我們需要建立庫存來供應業務的衍生性商品。
Our next question is from Michael Lavery with Piper Sandler O'Neill.
我們的下一個問題來自 Michael Lavery 和 Piper Sandler O'Neill。
Please proceed.
請繼續。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Good morning.
早安.
Can you just touch on loan business a little bit more now that you've got the fourth line, how much at the more significant flexibility there?
既然您已經有了第四條線,您能否再多談談貸款業務,那裡的靈活性更大嗎?
And have you been able to push a little bit on more independent grocers?
您是否能夠推動更多獨立雜貨店的發展?
It was like one Firebag and one roll-on that each could do to kind of the power SKUs and then the other that could do the rest of the portfolio.
這就像一個 Firebag 和一個 Roll-on,每個都可以用來分類強力 SKU,然後另一個可以用來完成產品組合的其餘部分。
Is that something you've you've been able to tell you that are working on?
這是你已經能夠告訴你正在做的事情嗎?
How does that look?
看起來怎麼樣?
Yes, Michael, on we as we've said all along, getting to bank lines into rural lines up and going was going to be a big unlock for us in that we'll be able to have one line specialize in very high velocity, high-volume SKUs and how all the complexity be taken by the other line.
是的,邁克爾,正如我們一直所說的那樣,將銀行線路引入農村線路,這對我們來說將是一個巨大的解鎖,因為我們將能夠擁有一條專門從事非常高速度的線路,大批量SKU 以及如何透過其他生產線承擔所有複雜性。
So when we started up that, that goal line in September, we saw that benefit that obviously didn't show up in this quarter because those that goes up, that production will impact Q4.
因此,當我們在 9 月啟動該目標線時,我們看到了本季顯然沒有出現的效益,因為產量上升將影響第四季。
But we started seeing some sizable improvements on particularly on our roll side of the business.
但我們開始看到一些相當大的改進,特別是在我們的業務方面。
On the backside of the business.
在企業的背面。
We've been getting some of the benefit of that, but we're still scaling that business.
我們已經從中獲得了一些好處,但我們仍在擴大業務。
Some are trying to work out the kinks as you get the site up and going, but without a doubt, having to have each to guidelines to launch more efficiency on those lines and have all the complexity born on the other line, the site and Anna, so just to be very clear, goal will always be, I'd say, running a little bit behind where we are in Bethlehem purely because but we're constantly starting up new lines versus a more mature site in Bethlehem where we've been operating for a long time.
有些人試圖在網站啟動和運行時解決問題,但毫無疑問,必須讓每個人都遵守指導方針,以提高這些線路的效率,並讓另一條線路、站點和安娜產生所有的複雜性,所以要非常明確的是,我想說,目標永遠是落後於我們在伯利恆的位置,純粹是因為,但我們不斷地開闢新的線路,而不是在伯利恆一個更成熟的站點,我們已經在伯利恆建立了一個更成熟的站點。
It's very stable environment in Ennis.
恩尼斯的環境非常穩定。
We started up a line in September.
我們在九月啟動了一條生產線。
We have another line starting up in the in December.
我們有另一條生產線將於 12 月啟動。
The and the out the third roll line starts up in December, and we have construction going on there.
第三條軋製線將於 12 月啟動,目前正在進行施工。
So there's a non stop the process of expansion and makes it a little bit harder to get to that level of performance.
因此,擴展過程是不間斷的,並且使達到該性能水平變得有點困難。
You get into more stable operation like back on, but over the long haul.
您會進入更穩定的運行狀態,例如重新啟動,但從長遠來看。
And it looks like it's going to deliver the efficiency advantages that we had hoped for when we designed and built the facility.
看起來它將提供我們在設計和建造該設施時所希望的效率優勢。
It will take a little bit of time till we get there.
我們需要一點時間才能到達那裡。
Our next question is from Jim scenario with Stephens Inc., please proceed.
我們的下一個問題來自 Jim 與 Stephens Inc. 的情景,請繼續。
Hi, guys.
嗨,大家好。
Good morning.
早安.
Thanks for taking my question.
感謝您提出我的問題。
Two-part question for me.
對我來說分為兩部分的問題。
Does talk to the black about the conversion from toppers to main meals helping drive the buy rate.
是否與黑人談論從禮賓到主餐的轉換,以幫助提高購買率。
I just wanted to drill down on that and see if you could offer some color on what drives that conversion into kind of a main will buyer.
我只是想深入研究這一點,看看您是否可以提供一些關於推動轉變為主要意願買家的因素的資訊。
And if you're able to size up, the percentage of your current buyers that are using the product is Poppers to silicon kind of frame up how much conversion opportunity there as we move forward hedge and so on.
如果你能夠衡量,目前使用該產品的買家的百分比是 Poppers 的,可以在我們推進對沖等過程中確定有多少轉換機會。
So look, I think that a lot of times adoption takes a different path, right?
所以看,我認為很多時候採用都會採取不同的路徑,對吧?
So we know that people some people come in and they started they become a heavy user almost immediately, and they kind of go down that path.
所以我們知道有些人進來後幾乎立即成為重度用戶,並且他們沿著這條路走下去。
We do know that there are a lot of users on.
我們確實知道有很多用戶。
In fact, it's a very big chunk of people that we consider toppers because they are doing some type of mixing behavior.
事實上,我們認為有很大一部分人是頂級的,因為他們正在做某種類型的混合行為。
It's a pretty standard behavior and pet food where people are taking dry food and mixing in our wet food, what our goal is and what we're doing over time as we're trying to make sure that we're communicating and messaging to people that this is your main meal.
這是一種非常標準的行為和寵物食品,人們將乾糧與濕糧混合在一起,我們的目標是什麼以及我們隨著時間的推移正在做什麼,因為我們試圖確保我們正在與人們溝通和傳遞訊息這是祢的主餐。
And I think that's why you're starting to see more and more growth in that Hippo area.
我認為這就是為什麼你開始看到河馬地區越來越多的成長。
So do you see we talked about basically our penetration growth as this number are Hippo growth was 24%.
所以你看到了嗎,我們基本上討論了我們的滲透率成長,因為這個數字是 Hippo 成長了 24%。
So if we can get those hit both and get everyone in that mindset, use us as a main meal and not a topper and get them to understand this is the center your plate just like your food, your meal, the center of your plate should be fresh real food.
因此,如果我們能夠同時滿足這些要求並讓每個人都保持這種心態,請將我們用作主餐而不是裝飾物,並讓他們了解這是您盤子的中心,就像您的食物,您的膳食,您盤子的中心應該一樣是新鮮的真正的食物。
And that's what we're delivering to consumers and bringing to them.
這就是我們向消費者提供並帶給他們的東西。
So and what you're seeing is that in the way, in our advertising and the way we communicate that and everything we're showing or are we showing fuel for both of Freshpet?
那麼,您所看到的是,我們的廣告方式、溝通方式以及我們所展示的一切,或者我們是否正在為 Freshpet 提供燃料?
We're not showing bowls of people mixing food.
我們不會展示人們在碗裡混合食物。
So we're demonstrating then all the inventory that we're doing, everything that we're kind of the way we're communicating consumer from an emotional standpoint and who they're all who they are and what they're all about and think about their dog food in the next thing that we're doing, you'll see more and more recently in, but we touched on in the script, is more and more packs that are multipacks, a variety packs on where they're just multiple skews Enerpac.
因此,我們正在展示我們正在做的所有庫存,我們從情感角度與消費者溝通的方式以及他們是誰以及他們的全部內容以及想想我們接下來要做的事情,你會看到越來越多的狗糧,但我們在劇本中提到,越來越多的包裝是多件裝,各種各樣的包裝只是多重偏斜 Enerpac。
You're also seeing more and more large sizes from us.
您還看到我們提供越來越多的大尺寸產品。
The biggest people, their mix is a large dog or what do we just come out with a large bag of a large dog food that tends to be doing really, really well, like we're thrilled with the results from that.
最大的人,他們的組合是一隻大型狗,或者我們只是拿出一大袋大型狗糧,往往表現得非常非常好,就像我們對結果感到興奮一樣。
So that's kind of like that's what we're seeing.
這有點像我們所看到的。
And this is going to take some time because what we're doing is trying to encourage that behavior change on the core of our business, again, is the 5 million high-profit or the hit both the super heavy heavy group.
這將需要一些時間,因為我們正在做的事情是試圖鼓勵我們業務核心的行為改變,同樣是 500 萬高利潤或打擊超重集團。
We love those guys.
我們愛那些傢伙。
There are 90% of our business.
我們的業務有90%。
That's who we're focusing on that.
這就是我們關注的焦點。
So we want to cultivate, and that's a behavior I want to encourage.
所以我們想要培養,這是我想要鼓勵的行為。
Our next question is from Canal parallel out with cafes.
我們的下一個問題來自與咖啡館平行的運河。
Please proceed.
請繼續。
Hey, guys, good morning.
嘿,夥計們,早安。
On one to starting just very quick one, confirming that the CapEx change was just entirely timing and pushed into 25 and not on maybe something that you're doing differently or decision you've made on capacity.
一開始只是非常快的一件事,確認資本支出的變化完全是時機,並被推到了 25,而不是因為你正在做的不同事情或你對容量做出的決定。
And then maybe a bigger question, which is on the marketing and I guess, effect businesses, marketing, you alluded to it a little bit at the beginning, but I'm just as many different sort of pieces of calculus in how much to spend with there's capacity domestic specific forms, but also now you are pushing 1 billion in revenue.
然後也許是一個更大的問題,這是關於營銷的,我想,影響業務,營銷,你在一開始就提到了一點,但我只是在花多少錢方面有很多不同類型的計算有了國內特定形式的能力,而且現在你正在推動10億的收入。
So how do you think about advertising in the context or Mark advertising and marketing in the context of the site is that you now are on beyond just circumspect capacity stuff which you brought up?
那麼,您如何看待網站背景下的廣告或標記網站背景下的廣告和行銷,您現在超出了您提出的謹慎能力範圍?
I'll take the first part.
我將採取第一部分。
The CapEx is almost all timing, so that will push into 2025.
資本支出幾乎都是定時的,因此將推遲到 2025 年。
That was quick assets.
那是快速資產。
We look to the effectiveness of the marketing like this is the I think this is the key question that we are.
我們關注行銷的有效性,我認為這是我們的關鍵問題。
We trying to stay on top of a lag sometimes on a weekly basis.
有時我們每週都試圖保持滯後。
We're looking at this and the thing that it looked, it's very unusual zone brought up very unusual for a packaged foods business in order to kind of maintain a leadership role for a really long period of time.
我們正在研究這個和它看起來的東西,這是一個非常不尋常的區域,對於包裝食品行業來說是非常不尋常的,以便在很長一段時間內保持領導地位。
I think it's incredibly unusual for a packaged goods company to have the same level of productivity on their advertising marketing effectiveness as they had for almost the past 10 years.
我認為,對於一家包裝商品公司來說,其廣告行銷效果的生產力水平與近 10 年來的水平相當,這是非常不尋常的。
I mean, I'm I don't think I'm like exaggerating too much where I say for literally for a decade, we have had very similar tack.
我的意思是,我認為我並沒有誇大其詞,我說十年來,我們的策略非常相似。
And the thing I would account for a second acquisition costs because I think it's a good indicator of we're continuing to keep the message fresh.
我會考慮第二個採購成本,因為我認為這是一個很好的指標,表明我們將繼續保持資訊的新鮮度。
We're continuing to find new channels to communicate the Caxton within a very, very tight band.
我們正在繼續尋找新的管道,在非常非常緊密的範圍內傳達 Caxton。
And I think with that demonstrated the model is overall intact.
我認為這表明該模型總體上完好無損。
And also, I think most importantly, demonstrates the TAM potential, which I think is the other thing that people get really concerned about.
而且,我認為最重要的是,展示了 TAM 的潛力,我認為這是人們真正關心的另一件事。
Usually when you get deeper into your TAM, your cash starts to go up significantly.
通常,當您進入 TAM 時,您的現金就會開始顯著增加。
We haven't seen that.
我們還沒有看到這一點。
So it gives this incredible confidence in what we're doing now back to like what we're doing for a second.
因此,它讓我們對現在正在做的事情充滿了難以置信的信心,讓我們再次喜歡我們正在做的事情。
So this is one of these areas where there is a lot of magic that's created from the team and the people associated and we work with in order to keep the marketing kind of going.
因此,這是團隊和相關人員以及與我們合作的人員創造出許多魔力的領域之一,以保持行銷的持續進行。
And that's first, the creative, the creative It tests and Co.
首先是創意,它測試和合作的創意。
Incredibly well.
好得令人難以置信。
And then in-market performance is honestly, it's extraordinary.
老實說,市場表現非常出色。
Todd Larson.
托德·拉爾森.
I use that word on that next, the way we have where we place it, we started off quite very, very kind of large broad market advertising.
接下來我用這個詞,我們放置它的方式,我們開始了非常非常大的廣泛市場廣告。
And then we've taken into more and more different types of vehicles and mediums and different targets.
然後我們考慮了越來越多不同類型的車輛和媒介以及不同的目標。
And even as we've kind of move into different targets, our men and sports, you're seeing us more and more and sports, we've been able to stay as productive.
即使我們已經進入了不同的目標,我們的人員和體育項目,你會越來越多地看到我們和體育項目,我們仍然能夠保持生產力。
And we also know what we're doing that now, but we know what we're doing six months and even a year from now as the plans like fold out.
我們也知道現在正在做什麼,但隨著計劃的展開,我們也知道六個月甚至一年後我們正在做什麼。
So what I mean by that is we were we'll test things that are six months plus out and have them ready to go for us to continue to execute on the on them across the marketing model that we use.
所以我的意思是,我們將測試六個月以上的東西,並準備好它們,以便我們可以繼續在我們使用的行銷模式中執行它們。
So that hopefully that's helpful.
希望這會有所幫助。
You can spend, we could spend a lot of time on that.
你可以花,我們可以花很多時間在這上面。
Our next question is from Mark Fitzgerald with Wells Fargo.
我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的馬克·菲茨杰拉德。
Please proceed.
請繼續。
Hey, good morning and thank you for the question.
嘿,早上好,謝謝你的提問。
Just on the consumer, you continue to see strong buy rate gains.
僅就消費者而言,您將繼續看到購買率的強勁成長。
You had also called out a shift to larger pack sizes last quarter.
上個季度您也呼籲轉向更大的包裝尺寸。
I guess any updated color on what you're seeing out there?
我猜你看到的顏色有什麼更新嗎?
How do you expect mix to more near term, both in terms consumer behavior and how that flows through the model things?
您如何看待近期的混合,無論是在消費者行為方面還是在模型事物中的流動?
Hey, Mark.
嘿,馬克。
So it's interesting.
所以這很有趣。
It's been one of these periods where there are a little bit of a tale of two cities, quite honestly, audit opinion kind of flattened out in and around that 3% level.
這是兩個城市之間存在一些故事的時期之一,老實說,審計意見在 3% 的水平上趨於平緩。
I'm definitely there are two ends of the spectrum that seem to be doing well.
我確信有兩端似乎都表現良好。
one of them is the autumn what's considered almost ultra-premium in the category, and we'll put ourselves in that bucket for a second.
其中之一是秋季,在該類別中幾乎被認為是超優質的,我們暫時將自己放在這個桶中。
And I think we'd like to think of ourselves that way, but for in the higher end of the category, and then there's a handful of products and more in the value area that are still doing pretty well.
我認為我們希望以這種方式來看待自己,但在該類別的高端領域,還有一些產品以及更多在價值領域仍然表現良好的產品。
And actually, we're growing the middle is getting squeezed a little bit and it tends to have to do a little bit with with people's income levels.
事實上,我們正在成長的中產階級正在受到一點擠壓,這往往與人們的收入水準有一定關係。
But it is a conscious choice that people are deciding on what foods they want to buy on on the ultra-premium.
但這是人們有意識的選擇,他們決定要以超高端價格購買哪些食品。
And there's people like us.
還有像我們這樣的人。
There's other direct to consumer brand brands that are very, very expensive, but people are seeing the value and what we are bringing to the market and willing to spend the extra money on it because of the product that we bring and the value that they see from it.
還有其他直接面向消費者的品牌非常非常昂貴,但人們看到了價值以及我們為市場帶來的東西,並且願意花額外的錢,因為我們帶來的產品和他們看到的價值從它。
The other end may be people that aren't quite as involved with their pet and then maybe a little bit of upfront from inflation.
另一端可能是那些不太關心他們的寵物的人,然後可能會因為通貨膨脹而得到一點預付款。
They haven't seen salaries go up as much and then making some different buying decisions on.
他們沒有看到薪資上漲那麼多,然後做出一些不同的購買決定。
That's not really our consumer group.
那並不是我們真正的消費族群。
That's not really who were focused on, and that's not really the group or after.
這並不是真正關注的人,也不是真正的團體或之後。
But we are watching this play out for the category, been an interesting period.
但我們正在觀察這一類別的發展,這是一個有趣的時期。
I think it's starting to, you know, kind of flattened out and moderate a bit.
我認為它開始變得趨於平緩並且有所緩和。
I think people are getting a little bit more color.
我認為人們的色彩越來越豐富。
I think salaries have overall kind of grown a bit.
我認為工資總體上有所增長。
I think people are getting more comfortable with pricing is in general across the market.
我認為人們對整個市場的定價越來越滿意。
And I think that we're in a really fortunate position as we've tapped into our need an interest in the market from the consumer group on the thinking is really very large and growing as they understand the difference differentiation of the products that we're putting out there.
我認為我們處於一個非常幸運的位置,因為我們已經利用了消費者群體對市場的興趣,因為他們的想法非常大,並且隨著他們了解我們產品的差異化而不斷增長。
Our final question is from John Lawrence with The Benchmark Company.
我們的最後一個問題來自 The Benchmark Company 的約翰勞倫斯 (John Lawrence)。
Please proceed.
請繼續。
Great.
偉大的。
Thanks, and congrats, guys.
謝謝,恭喜你們。
Can you talk a little bit about the from the retailers?
能談談零售商的情況嗎?
You mentioned the second and third fridges.
您提到了第二台和第三台冰箱。
We've talked about it over time that the cycle times and the review period that these retailers when they do their performance reviews, how long does it sometimes take 12 to 18 months to get these planograms and fridges on added to the mix?
隨著時間的推移,我們已經討論過這些零售商在進行績效審核時的周期時間和審核期,有時需要多長時間才能將這些貨架圖和冰箱添加到組合中?
Hey, John?
嘿,約翰?
Yes, it really in some cases, it can be a very, very long cadence with certain retailers that are in kind of certain mindsets and certain investment ideologies and integrate example and United probably chatted about this at one point.
是的,確實在某些情況下,與某些具有特定心態和特定投資意識形態的零售商之間的合作可能是一個非常非常長的節奏,並且整合了示例,聯合航空可能曾經討論過這一點。
If someone's doing a massive remodeling 26, they're not going to probably do a big touch and category and 25.
如果有人正在進行大規模改造 26,他們可能不會做大的改動和分類 25。
But look, I mean, there's you know, there's there's 70 retailers that we work with.
但你看,我的意思是,你知道,我們有 70 家零售商合作。
So it spans the globe, but there are times where we could have been having discussions now or in kind of Q. one that can have real impact in 2025.
所以它跨越了全球,但有時我們本可以現在就進行討論,或者以可能在 2025 年產生真正影響的問答形式進行討論。
And we have seen that very often.
我們經常看到這種情況。
I think the good news for us is that we are having great conversations now about things that will happen in 25.
我認為對我們來說好消息是我們現在正在就 25 年後發生的事情進行精彩的對話。
And if they don't happen in 25, some of them happened in 26.
即使它們沒有在 25 年發生,但也有一些在 26 年發生了。
And we feel like we're well positioned to start going into next year with additional fridge expansion, space expansion, et cetera, as the retailers assisted category.
我們覺得我們已經做好了準備,可以在明年開始進行額外的冰箱擴張、空間擴張等,作為零售商協助的類別。
The one thing I will put it like the paid advertisement in here, the distribution is terrific.
我要說的一件事就像這裡的付費廣告一樣,分發非常棒。
The media is what is the vast majority of the driver is over 70% of the driver for our growth.
媒體是我們成長的絕大多數驅動力,佔70%以上的驅動力。
And that's the gross-up of growth algorithm.
這就是成長演算法的總結。
And then what that media does is it drives new consumers.
然後該媒體的角色是吸引新的消費者。
Hopefully they're hit those that come into the business.
希望他們能受到那些進入這個行業的人的歡迎。
And then we do see really, really strong same-store sales growth over time.
隨著時間的推移,我們確實看到了非常非常強勁的同店銷售成長。
We're also seeing double digit same-store sales growth.
我們也看到同店銷售額呈現兩位數成長。
So that puts us in a really good position.
這使我們處於非常有利的位置。
And then on top of that, then we'll add innovation and will add some additional space.
除此之外,我們將添加創新並添加一些額外的空間。
And that's really what gets us gets us to the rest of the of the growth rate that we're always looking for.
這確實是讓我們達到我們一直在尋找的其餘成長率的原因。
We have reached the end of our question and answer session.
我們的問答環節已經結束。
I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Sayer for closing comments.
我想將會議轉回給塞耶先生發表總結意見。
Thank you, everyone.
謝謝大家。
On this day before election day, I'm reminded of a quote from Will Rogers.
在選舉日前一天,我想起了威爾·羅傑斯的一句話。
I love a dog, does nothing for political reasons.
我愛一隻狗,不會因為政治原因而做任何事。
So reward that August and fresh pet new docs inspection will make you forget all those campaign at and fundraising tax you've been drowning in.
因此,獎勵八月和新鮮的寵物新文件檢查將使您忘記所有那些您一直淹沒在其中的活動和籌款稅。
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
Thank you.
謝謝。
This will conclude today's conference.
今天的會議到此結束。
You may disconnect at this time, and thank you for your participation.
此時您可以斷開連接,感謝您的參與。
Okay.
好的。