Freshpet Inc (FRPT) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning and welcome to to Freshpet's fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings call webcast.

    早安,歡迎收聽 Freshpet 2024 年第四季和全年收益電話會議網路直播。

  • On today's call are Billy Cyr, Chief Executive Officer; and Todd Cunfer, Chief Financial Officer.

    參加今天電話會議的有執行長 Billy Cyr;以及財務長Todd Cunfer。

  • Before we begin, please remember that during the course of this call, management may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

    在我們開始之前,請記住,在本次電話會議期間,管理層可能會根據 1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案做出前瞻性陳述。

  • These include statements related to our long-term strategy, 2027 goals, and pace in achieving these goals, longer term potential, prospects for and sources of growth, timing of fresh pet kitchens expansion, the pet specialty channel, and 2025 guidance.

    其中包括與我們的長期策略、2027 年目標以及實現這些目標的步伐、長期潛力、成長前景和來源、新鮮寵物廚房擴張的時機、寵物專業管道和 2025 年指導相關的聲明。

  • Words such as anticipate, believe, could, estimate, expect, guidance, intend, may, project or similar conditional expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements.

    預期、相信、可能、估計、期望、指引、打算、可能、預期或類似條件表達等字眼旨在識別前瞻性陳述。

  • These statements are based on management's current expectations and beliefs and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in these forward-looking statements, including those associated with such statements.

    這些聲明是基於管理層目前的預期和信念,涉及風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性聲明中描述的結果有重大差異,包括與此類聲明相關的結果。

  • Please refer to the company's annual report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and the company's press release issued today for a detailed discussion of risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made today.

    請參閱本公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表年度報告以及本公司今天發布的新聞稿,以詳細了解可能導致實際結果與今天做出的任何前瞻性陳述中表達或暗示的結果存在重大差異的風險。

  • Please note that on today's call, management will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, such as EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA among others.

    請注意,在今天的電話會議上,管理層將參考某些非 GAAP 財務指標,例如 EBITDA 和調整後的 EBITDA 等。

  • While the company believes these non-GAAP financial measures provide useful information for investors, the presentation of this information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the financial information presented in accordance with GAAP.

    雖然公司認為這些非公認會計準則財務指標為投資者提供了有用的信息,但這些資訊的呈現並非旨在單獨考慮或替代按照公認會計準則呈現的財務資訊。

  • Please refer to today's press release for how management defines such non-GAAP measures, why management believes such non-GAAP measures are useful.

    請參閱今天的新聞稿,以了解管理階層如何定義此類非 GAAP 指標,以及管理階層為何認為此類非 GAAP 指標有用。

  • A reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable measures prepared in accordance with GAAP and limitations associated with such non-GAAP measures.

    將非公認會計準則財務指標與根據公認會計準則編制的最具可比性的指標進行調節,並考慮與此類非公認會計準則指標相關的限制。

  • Finally, the company has produced a presentation that contains many of the key metrics that will be discussed on this call.

    最後,該公司製作了一份演示文稿,其中包含本次電話會議將討論的許多關鍵指標。

  • That presentation can be found on the company's investor website.

    該演示文稿可以在該公司的投資者網站上找到。

  • Management's commentary will not specifically walk through the presentation on the call but rather as a summary of the results and guidance they will discuss today.

    管理層的評論不會具體介紹電話會議上的介紹,而是作為他們今天將討論的結果和指導的總結。

  • So with that, I'd like to turn the call over to Billy Cyr, Chief Executive Officer.

    因此,我想將電話轉給執行長 Billy Cyr。

  • Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

    Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Rachel, and good morning, everyone.

    謝謝你,Rachel,大家早安。

  • The message I would like you to take away from today's call is that our full-year 2024 results demonstrate that we can convert our strong growth into scale and leverage to drive significant increases in profitability.

    我希望你們從今天的電話會議中得到的信息是,我們 2024 年全年業績表明,我們可以將強勁的增長轉化為規模和槓桿,從而推動盈利能力的大幅提升。

  • Fiscal 2024 was a very good year for Freshpet, marked by strong top line growth and even better profitability improvement.

    2024 財年對 Freshpet 來說是非常好的一年,其特點是營收強勁成長,獲利能力進一步提升。

  • The strong net sales growth was almost entirely driven by volume gains, which were the result of a combination of growth in household penetration and buy rate and is fueled by our media investment and retail expansion, which results in a loyal consumer franchise as we do not participate in any trade promotions or discounting.

    強勁的淨銷售額成長幾乎完全是由銷售成長推動的,這是家庭滲透率和購買率共同成長的結果,並得益於我們的媒體投資和零售擴張,由於我們不參與任何貿易促銷或折扣,因此獲得了忠誠的消費者特許經營權。

  • The household penetration gains were our largest on record as we added approximately 2 million households, 800,000 of which were super heavy and heavy users.

    家庭普及率增幅是我們有史以來最大的,增加了約 200 萬個家庭,其中 80 萬個是超重度用戶和重度用戶。

  • We also added new distribution with approximately 1,300 new stores and almost 900 second and third fridges for a total of nearly 2,300 new fridges.

    我們還增加了新的分銷管道,包括約 1,300 家新門市和近 900 台第二和第三台冰箱,總計近 2,300 台新冰箱。

  • Further, we demonstrate our ability to add capacity to support this growth on time and on budget.

    此外,我們展示了我們按時按預算增加產能以支持這一增長的能力。

  • We threaded the needle on managing our capacity expansion and media spend to not get ahead of ourselves.

    我們在管理產能擴張和媒體支出方面精益求精,以免超越自己。

  • We managed to maintain over 99% fill rates, while adding capacity and selling 27% more volume than last year.

    我們成功維持了 99% 以上的填充率,同時增加了產能,銷售量比去年增加了 27%。

  • This disciplined growth allowed us to focus on the operational improvements needed to drive profitability as well, as we were able to beat our longer term targets for input, quality, and logistics costs, as well as adjusted growth margin.

    這種有紀律的成長使我們能夠專注於提高獲利能力所需的營運改進,因為我們能夠超越投入、品質和物流成本以及調整後的成長利潤率的長期目標。

  • We added 650 basis points to adjusted gross margin this year and more than 1,000 basis points of adjusted gross margin over the last two years, with the lowest logistics cost as a percent of sales ever, quality costs at their best level since 2018, and input costs as a percent of net sales that were the lowest levels in the last 8 years.

    今年,我們的調整後毛利率增加了 650 個基點,過去兩年的調整後毛利率增加了 1,000 多個基點,其中物流成本佔銷售額的百分比處於歷史最低水平,質量成本處於 2018 年以來的最佳水平,投入成本佔淨銷售額的百分比處於過去 8 年來的最低水平。

  • We began to see progress in G&A leverage too.

    我們也開始看到 G&A 槓桿的進展。

  • Adjusted SG&A, excluding the media and logistics, is about half of where it was in 2017 as a percent of net sales, and 340 basis points below what it was in 2020, despite sizable incentive comp this year.

    調整後的銷售、一般及行政費用(不包括媒體和物流)佔淨銷售額的百分比約為 2017 年的一半,比 2020 年低 340 個基點,儘管今年的激勵補償金額相當可觀。

  • In 2024, we also achieved positive net income for the first time, generating $0.94 per share of EPS and generated $154 million in operating cash flow.

    2024年,我們也首次實現了正淨收入,每股收益為0.94美元,營運現金流為1.54億美元。

  • Moreover, we have the ability to keep the growth going.

    此外,我們有能力保持持續成長。

  • As we'll hear later this morning during our CAGNY presentation, we believe Freshpet has a long runway of growth ahead and are very excited about the future.

    正如我們今天早上晚些時候在 CAGNY 演講中聽到的那樣,我們相信 Freshpet 未來有著漫長的成長空間,我們對未來感到非常興奮。

  • We know Freshpet is a unique brand with a differentiated product offering and an insulated business model.

    我們知道 Freshpet 是一個獨特的品牌,擁有差異化的產品和獨立的商業模式。

  • We viewed the long term trends of the humanization of pets and a focus on natural, fresher foods as tailwinds.

    我們認為,寵物人性化以及對天然、新鮮食品的關注是長期趨勢的順風。

  • Across the world, people are also waiting longer to have children, or having fewer children, and choosing to get a pet instead.

    在世界各地,人們生育孩子的時間越來越長,或生育的孩子越來越少,選擇養寵物。

  • This bodes well for fresh pets.

    這對新寵物來說是一個好兆頭。

  • Despite that, we still have a very small share of a very large category.

    儘管如此,我們在很大的類別中只佔有很小的份額。

  • Per Nielsen Omnichannel data for the 52 weeks ended 12/28/24, we compete in the $54 billion US pet food category, and we have only a 3.4% market share within the $37 billion US dog food and treat segment.

    根據截至 2024 年 12 月 28 日的 52 週尼爾森全通路數據,我們在價值 540 億美元的美國寵物食品類別中競爭,而在價值 370 億美元的美國狗糧和零食領域,我們的市場份額僅佔 3.4%。

  • In Nielsen MegaChannel, we have a 96% market share within the gently cooked fresh frozen branded dog food segment.

    在尼爾森大型頻道 (Nielsen MegaChannel) 中,我們在輕度烹調的新鮮冷凍品牌狗糧領域佔有 96% 的市場份額。

  • Taken together, this performance and potential demonstrate that Freshpet has become a profitable growth company with a long runway for future growth and profitability improvements.

    綜合起來,這樣的業績和潛力表明 Freshpet 已成為一家盈利增長型公司,並且在未來的成長和盈利能力提升方面擁有很長的路要走。

  • The organization we have built delivered the kind of results that one would expect of such a unique and powerful brand and business model.

    我們所建立的組織取得了人們所期望的獨特而強大的品牌和商業模式所取得的成果。

  • And we believe that the opportunity for future growth and profit improvement is quite large.

    而且我們相信未來成長和利潤提升的機會相當大。

  • Now I'd like to provide some highlights from the fourth quarter and the full year.

    現在我想介紹一下第四季和全年的一些亮點。

  • We had strong growth in the fourth quarter with net sales of $263 million, up 22% year over year, driven primarily by volume growth.

    我們第四季成長強勁,淨銷售額達 2.63 億美元,較去年同期成長 22%,主要得益於銷售成長。

  • Recall, we deliberately backloaded our media investment in fiscal year '24 to live within our capacity constraints, and that resulted in a gradual reduction in our growth rate throughout the year.

    回想一下,我們故意在 24 財年推遲了媒體投資,以保持在產能限制之內,這導致我們全年的成長率逐漸下降。

  • Once we cleared that capacity limitation in September, we increased our advertising investment for the balance of the year, with the largest increase coming in December.

    一旦我們在 9 月解決了容量限制問題,我們就會增加全年的廣告投入,其中 12 月的增幅最大。

  • And we expect that will result in a gradual increase in our growth rate as we move through fiscal year '25.

    我們預計,在進入25財年時,這將使我們的成長率逐步上升。

  • It takes time for the advertising investment to generate new households and for those new households to turn into meaningful deals and measured sales, but we are seeing the early signs that it is beginning to happen as it has so many times in the past.

    廣告投資需要時間來吸引新的家庭,並將這些新的家庭轉化為有意義的交易和可衡量的銷售,但我們看到早期跡象表明它正在開始發生,就像過去很多時候一樣。

  • Household penetration is growing, and our customer acquisition cost, or CA, remains healthy.

    家庭普及率正在成長,我們的客戶獲取成本(CA)仍然保持健康。

  • Adjusted gross margin in the fourth quarter was 48.1% compared to 41.1% in the prior year period.

    第四季調整後毛利率為48.1%,去年同期為41.1%。

  • As Todd will explain later, this was a very strong performance, even though it was helped by our efforts to build inventory in October and November so that we could take production lines down for upgrades at year end.

    正如托德稍後會解釋的那樣,這是一個非常強勁的表現,儘管這得益於我們在 10 月和 11 月努力建立庫存,以便我們能夠在年底關閉生產線進行升級。

  • Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter was $52.6 million, up approximately $21 million year over year.

    第四季調整後EBITDA為5,260萬美元,較去年同期增加約2,100萬美元。

  • For the year, we had net sales of $975 million 27% year over year, in line with our guidance of approximately $975 million.

    今年,我們的淨銷售額為 9.75 億美元,年增 27%,符合我們預期的約 9.75 億美元。

  • Fiscal year '24 adjusted gross margin was 46.5%, up 650 basis points year over year.

    24財年調整後毛利率為46.5%,較去年成長650個基點。

  • And full year adjusted EBITDA was $161.8 million up 143%, or $95 million year over year.

    全年調整後 EBITDA 為 1.618 億美元,年增 143%,即 9,500 萬美元。

  • We are quite pleased that we are able to deliver our fiscal year '27, adjusted gross margin target three years early.

    我們非常高興能夠提早三年實現 27 財年調整後的毛利率目標。

  • And we are quite foolish that there is more opportunity for us there, which I will touch on shortly.

    我們很愚蠢地以為那裡有更多的機會,我稍後會談到這一點。

  • From a retail perspective, we added more than 1,300 new stores in 2024, bringing our total to 28,141 stores, 22% of which have multiple fridges in the US.

    從零售角度來看,我們在 2024 年新增了 1,300 多家門市,使門市總數達到 28,141 家,其中 22% 的門市在美國擁有多台冰箱。

  • At year end, we had a total of 36,544 fridges, or approximately 1.9 million cubic feet of retail space across our network, and an average of 20.5 SKUs, and we have more room to grow.

    截至年底,我們整個網路共有 36,544 台冰箱,約 190 萬立方英尺的零售空間,平均 SKU 為 20.5 個,並且我們還有很大的成長空間。

  • Our distribution and grocery, where we're the dog food market leader, was only 77% ACV at year end.

    在我們的分銷和雜貨業務中,我們是狗糧市場的領導者,但截至年底,ACV 僅為 77%。

  • In an xAOC it was only 66%.

    在 xAOC 中,這一比例僅為 66%。

  • Conversations with retail customers are very encouraging, and the shift in mindset about this category has been palpable.

    與零售客戶的對話非常令人鼓舞,並且對於這一類別的思維轉變是顯而易見的。

  • We continue to expect the bulk of our growth going forward to be from the addition of second and third fridges in the highest velocity stores rather than new stores.

    我們仍然預計,未來的大部分成長將來自於在銷售速度最快的商店中增加第二台和第三台冰箱,而不是新店。

  • Our household penetration at year end was 13.5 million households, up 17% year over year and in line with our projections, driven by our media investment.

    由於我們的媒體投資,截至年底,我們的家庭普及率為 1,350 萬戶,比去年同期成長 17%,符合我們的預期。

  • We believe we are ahead of the pace needed to meet our 20 million household goal by 2027.

    我們相信,我們已經領先實現 2027 年 2,000 萬戶家庭目標所需的步伐。

  • Our overall buy rate continues to grow as well, up 6% year over year to $104.89.

    我們的整體購買率也持續成長,年增 6%,達到 104.89 美元。

  • Please note that going forward, we'll be reporting our progress on a narrower and more important group of consumers than the hippos that we previously reported on.

    請注意,今後我們將針對比我們先前報告的河馬更窄、更重要的消費者群體報告我們的進展。

  • We will focus on a group that we call MVPs or most valuable pet parents who are our super heavy and ultra heavy users, as this group represents our biggest opportunity for incremental usage.

    我們將重點放在一個被我們稱為 MVP 或最有價值的寵物父母的群體,他們是我們的超級重度和極重度用戶,因為這個群體代表著我們增量使用的最大機會。

  • MVPs accounted for 2.1 million of our households and represented 69% of our sales in 2024.

    MVP 涵蓋了我們的 210 萬個家庭,占我們 2024 年銷售額的 69%。

  • They spend $474 per year on fresh pet on average and are growing faster than our total households at 27% year over year.

    他們平均每年在購買新鮮寵物上花費 474 美元,而且成長率比我們的家庭總數還快,年增長率為 27%。

  • Freshpet sales are increasingly concentrated in our heaviest users, and there's a significant opportunity to increase this percentage and grow our total business.

    Freshpet 的銷售越來越集中在我們最重度的用戶身上,而且我們有巨大的機會提高這一比例並增長我們的整體業務。

  • We'll share more detail on this group later today.

    我們將在今天晚些時候分享有關該團體的更多詳細資訊。

  • Turning to an update on our capacity, we successfully started up our fifth and sixth roll lines across our network in September and December.

    談到我們產能的最新情況,我們在九月和十二月成功啟動了整個網路中的第五和第六條軋輥生產線。

  • And the next bag line in Kitchen South is expected to start up later in the first quarter of 2025.

    位於 Kitchen South 的下一條袋子生產線預計將於 2025 年第一季稍後投入使用。

  • Our capacity expansion plans are constantly evolving as we find ways to drive greater capital efficiency.

    隨著我們尋找提高資本效率的方法,我們的產能擴張計畫也不斷發展。

  • As we've discussed previously, we are intensely focused on maximizing the throughput of our existing lines, maximizing the capacity of our three existing sites, and developing and implementing new technologies that generate more throughput per line.

    正如我們之前所討論的,我們正致力於最大限度地提高現有生產線的吞吐量,最大限度地提高現有三個站點的容量,以及開發和實施可提高每條生產線吞吐量的新技術。

  • When fully built out, we expect the three kitchens we have today to be able to support up to $3 billion in sales.

    我們預計,全面建成後,目前的三個廚房將能夠支援高達 30 億美元的銷售額。

  • We commit to incremental capacity from a new line about 18 to 24 months out.

    我們承諾在約18至24個月的時間內從新生產線開始增加產能。

  • So we're not committed to all $3 billion of capacity today and won't be for several years.

    因此,我們目前不會承諾全部 30 億美元的產能,而且在未來幾年也不會承諾。

  • Now for our outlook for fiscal year 2025, we expect net sales of approximately $1.18 billion to $1.21 billion, or approximately 21% to 24% growth year over year, adjusted EBITDA of at least $210 million in capital expenditures of approximately $250 million.

    現在,對於 2025 財年的展望,我們預計淨銷售額約為 11.8 億美元至 12.1 億美元,或同比增長約 21% 至 24%,調整後的 EBITDA 至少為 2.1 億美元,資本支出約為 2.5 億美元。

  • Todd will walk through more details of our 2025 guidance in a few minutes, but I wanted to address recent scanner data trends.

    托德將在幾分鐘內詳細介紹我們的 2025 年指導方針,但我想談談最近的掃描器數據趨勢。

  • Our media in the fourth quarter of 2024 was heavily weighted to December, and it always takes time for the increasing household penetration to flow through to our Nielsen measured sales.

    我們 2024 年第四季的媒體重點放在 12 月,而家庭滲透率的提高總是需要時間才能轉化為尼爾森測得的銷售額。

  • We watch the growth trends very closely for any hint that our plan is not as effective as it has been in years past.

    我們密切關注成長趨勢,以防任何跡象表明我們的計劃不再像過去幾年那麼有效。

  • And we have the tools and flexibility to keep it on track if it slows.

    即使速度減慢,我們也有工具和靈活性來保持其正常運作。

  • As a reminder, we're also lapping increased visibility and distribution in the club channel last year, from which we saw a significant benefit.

    提醒一下,去年我們還在提高俱樂部通路的知名度和分銷量,從中我們看到了顯著的效益。

  • Increasing visibility and availability has always been a part of our growth model, amplifying our advertising and reaching new consumers.

    提高知名度和可用性一直是我們成長模式的一部分,可以擴大我們的廣告影響力並吸引新的消費者。

  • The big gains in retail visibility come in spurts as they did last year.

    與去年一樣,零售知名度也出現了突飛猛進的成長。

  • Over the next two years, we anticipate other significant new fridge placements that could provide similar visibility and availability benefits and help us achieve our long-term net sales goals.

    在接下來的兩年裡,我們預計將有其他重要的新冰箱投放市場,它們可以提供類似的可見性和可用性優勢,並幫助我們實現長期淨銷售目標。

  • However, those large editions will take some time to materialize.

    不過,這些大型版本還需要一些時間才能實現。

  • As you will hear later this morning, retailers are fully engaged, and we have new fridge placement options that have the potential to change the way consumers think about shopping for their pets.

    正如您將在今天早上晚些時候聽到的那樣,零售商已充分參與其中,我們擁有新的冰箱擺放選項,這些選項可能會改變消費者為寵物購物的想法。

  • In fiscal year 25, we do expect a steady diet of the typical new store and second fridge placements, and some tests are small scale implementations of some more impactful larger placements.

    在 25 財年,我們確實預期典型的新店和第二台冰箱的擺放會比較穩定,而且一些測試是一些更有影響力的大型擺放的小規模實施。

  • Net, we believe the long term trends remain robust, and while the pet food category trends are not where we would like them to be at the start of 2025, Freshpet and other fresh frozen brands, including DTC brands, continue to significantly outperform the category, and we do not foresee that changing anytime soon.

    淨值方面,我們相信長期趨勢依然強勁,雖然寵物食品類別趨勢並未達到我們希望在 2025 年初達到的水平,但 Freshpet 和其他新鮮冷凍品牌(包括 DTC 品牌)的表現繼續顯著優於該類別,而且我們預計這種情況不會很快改變。

  • And one can't escape the fact that Freshpet has been a remarkably reliable growth business.

    不容忽視的事實是,Freshpet 一直是一家非常可靠的成長型企業。

  • Our Nielsen measured sales, volume growth, and household penetration gains have performed well over a very long period of time and through a wide variety of situations, including price increases, media timing changes, competitive entries, macroeconomic pressures, and widespread out of stocks.

    我們的尼爾森測量的銷售額、銷售成長和家庭滲透率成長在很長一段時間內都表現良好,並且經歷了各種各樣的情況,包括價格上漲、媒體時機變化、競爭對手進入、宏觀經濟壓力和大面積缺貨。

  • And that and the size of the total addressable market is why we are confident that we're on track for the $1.8 billion in net sales and fiscal year '27.

    正是因為這個原因,以及整個潛在市場的規模,我們有信心實現 27 財年 18 億美元的淨銷售額。

  • Today we are also raising for 2027, margin targets in conjunction with our CAGNY presentation later this morning.

    今天,我們還將結合今天上午稍後的 CAGNY 演示提高 2027 年的利潤目標。

  • Given the improvements we've made on our operations, we feel very confident that we can exceed our previous long-term targets for adjusted gross margin and adjusted EBITDA margin.

    鑑於我們在營運方面取得的改進,我們非常有信心能夠超越我們先前調整後毛利率和調整後 EBITDA 利潤率的長期目標。

  • For adjusted gross margin, we now expect a 48% margin by fiscal year '27 versus 45% previously.

    對於調整後的毛利率,我們目前預計27財年的毛利率將達到48%,而之前為45%。

  • And for adjusted EBITDA margin, we now expect a 22% margin by fiscal year '27 versus 18% previously.

    對於調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率,我們預計 27 財年的利潤率將達到 22%,而之前為 18%。

  • We've made great progress on scaling the business, and our current plans to drive greater efficiencies give us confidence in our ability to deliver these new goals.

    我們在擴大業務規模方面取得了巨大進展,我們目前的提高效率的計劃使我們對實現這些新目標的能力充滿信心。

  • We believe we've established a robust pace of growth that enables us to capitalize on the once in a generation pet food transition from kibble and can to fresh pet food and simultaneously deliver the profits that make that an attractive venture.

    我們相信,我們已經建立了強勁的成長速度,使我們能夠利用一代又一代的寵物食品從粗磨食物和罐頭到新鮮寵物食品的轉變,同時實現利潤,使這成為一個有吸引力的事業。

  • Longer term, we believe that Freshpet can continue to grow net sales at a very strong rate and that there is still additional room for margin improvement.

    從長遠來看,我們相信 Freshpet 的淨銷售額能夠繼續以強勁的速度成長,而且利潤率仍有提升空間。

  • Beyond fiscal year '27, it would not surprise us if Freshpet delivered an adjusted EBITDA margin in the mid-20s.

    在 27 財年之後,如果 Freshpet 實現調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率在 25% 左右,我們不會感到驚訝。

  • It won't happen overnight.

    這不會在一夜之間發生。

  • But the opportunities for profit improvement from added scale, new technologies, and operating efficiencies are sizable, and the TAM continues to grow nicely.

    但擴大規模、採用新技術以及提高營運效率所帶來的利潤提升機會相當大,而且 TAM 仍在持續良好成長。

  • We believe Freshpet has the potential to have a very high market share in an attractive category with a well insullated position and structurally attractive economics.

    我們相信,Freshpet 有潛力在一個頗具吸引力的類別中佔據非常高的市場份額,憑藉良好的市場地位和結構上具有吸引力的經濟學。

  • In summary, 2024 was a terrific year and one we're very proud of as an organization.

    總而言之,2024 年是偉大的一年,我們作為一個組織對此感到非常自豪。

  • We are constantly striving to be better in raising the bar for ourselves, both financially for our investors and with our products for our consumers.

    我們始終致力於提升自己的標準,無論是為投資人提供財務方面的服務,或是為消費者提供產品方面的服務。

  • We aim to have the right balance of growth, capital investment, and cash generation.

    我們的目標是實現成長、資本投資和現金創造之間的適當平衡。

  • And we are increasingly confident that we will be free cash flow positive by 2026.

    我們越來越有信心到 2026 年我們的自由現金流將為正值。

  • We intend to self-fund our growth efforts going forward.

    我們打算自行籌資來支持未來的成長努力。

  • Now let me turn it over to Todd to walk you through the details of the fourth quarter and full year 2024 results and our 2025 guidance.

    現在,讓我將主題交給托德,讓他向您介紹 2024 年第四季和全年業績以及 2025 年指引的詳細資訊。

  • Todd.

    托德。

  • Todd Cunfer - Chief Financial Officer

    Todd Cunfer - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Billy, and good morning, everyone.

    謝謝你,比利,大家早安。

  • As Billy mentioned, we are very happy with our 2024 results and our ability to manage growth while driving profit improvement.

    正如 Billy 所說,我們對 2024 年的表現以及在推動利潤成長的同時管理成長的能力感到非常滿意。

  • Now, I'll give you some more color on our financials and updated guidance for the year.

    現在,我將向您詳細介紹我們的財務狀況和今年的最新指引。

  • Fourth quarter net sales were $262.7 million up 22% year over year.

    第四季淨銷售額為 2.627 億美元,較去年同期成長 22%。

  • We saw broad-based consumption growth across channels.

    我們看到各個通路的消費普遍成長。

  • For Nielsen measured dollars, we saw 23% growth in xAOC, 22% in total US pet retail plus, 20% in US food, and 10% growth in pet specialty.

    以尼爾森衡量,xAOC 成長了 23%,美國寵物零售總額成長了 22%,美國食品成長了 20%,寵物專賣店成長了 10%。

  • The unmeasured channel contributed approximately 2 points of growth.

    未測量的渠道貢獻了大約2個點的成長。

  • Our growth was partially offset by a small trade inventory reduction.

    我們的成長被貿易庫存的小幅減少部分抵消。

  • Fiscal 2024 net sales were $975 million, up 20 27% year over year.

    2024 財年淨銷售額為 9.75 億美元,較去年同期成長 2027%。

  • Fourth quarter adjusted gross margin was 48.1% compared to 41.1% in the prior year period.

    第四季調整後毛利率為48.1%,去年同期為41.1%。

  • This increase was driven by lower input cost, reduced quality cost, and improved leverage on planed expenses.

    這一增長主要得益於投入成本降低、品質成本減少以及計劃費用槓桿率提高。

  • Please note that the fourth quarter gross margin had a one-time manufacturing benefit of 150 basis points.

    請注意,第四季的毛利率有150個基點的一次性製造收益。

  • We strategically built excess inventory at year end in order to take down several lines in the network for a few weeks to upgrade equipment and improve operating efficiency.

    我們在年底策略性地建立了過剩庫存,以便關閉網路中的幾條線路幾週,以升級設備並提高營運效率。

  • Inventory will return to normal levels in the first quarter of 2025, which will result in a 150 basis point negative impact to gross margin for the first quarter.

    庫存將在2025年第一季恢復到正常水平,這將對第一季的毛利率產生150個基點的負面影響。

  • Fiscal year 2024, adjusted gross margin was 46.5%, an increase of 650 basis points compared to the prior year.

    2024財年,調整後毛利率為46.5%,較前一年增加650個基點。

  • Fourth quarter adjusted SG&A was 28% of net sales compared to 26.6% in the prior year period.

    第四季調整後的銷售、一般及行政費用佔淨銷售額的 28%,去年同期為 26.6%。

  • We spent 8.9% of net sales on media in the quarter, up from 6.3% of net sales in the prior year period as the media spend was more evenly spread throughout the year versus the prior year.

    本季我們將淨銷售額的 8.9% 用於媒體支出,高於去年同期的 6.3%,因為與去年相比,全年的媒體支出分佈更加均勻。

  • The biggest portion of the Q4 increase came in December.

    第四季增幅最大的月份是12月份。

  • Logistics costs were 6.2% of net sales in the fourth quarter, flat compared to the prior year period.

    第四季物流成本佔淨銷售額的6.2%,與去年同期持平。

  • Fiscal year 2024 adjusted SG&A was 29.9% of net sales compared to 31.3% in the prior year period.

    2024 財年調整後的銷售、一般及行政費用佔淨銷售額的 29.9%,去年同期為 31.3%。

  • Media as a percent of net sales was 11.4% compared to 11.1% in the prior year, while logistics improved 150 basis points year over year to 6.0%.

    媒體佔淨銷售額的百分比為 11.4%,而上年為 11.1%,而物流佔淨銷售額的百分比同比提高了 150 個基點,達到 6.0%。

  • Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was $52.6 million or 20% of net sales compared to $31.3 million or 14.5% of net sales in the prior year period.

    第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 5,260 萬美元,佔淨銷售額的 20%,而去年同期為 3,130 萬美元,佔淨銷售額的 14.5%。

  • This improvement was primarily driven by higher gross margin, partially offset by higher SG&A expenses.

    這項改善主要得益於毛利率的提高,但銷售、一般及行政費用的提高部分抵銷了這項改善。

  • Fiscal year 2024, adjusted EBITDA was $161.8 million or 16.6% of net sales compared to $66.6 million or 8.7% of net sales in the prior year period.

    2024 財年,調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.618 億美元,佔淨銷售額的 16.6%,而去年同期為 6,660 萬美元,佔淨銷售額的 8.7%。

  • As a result, we now believe that we can significantly exceed the original 18% target for fiscal year '27.

    因此,我們現在相信,我們可以大幅超越27財年原定的18%的目標。

  • Capital spending for 2024 was $187.1 million.

    2024 年的資本支出為 1.871 億美元。

  • Operating cash flow was $154.3 million for the year, a year over year improvement of $78.3 million and we had cash on hand of $268.6 million at the end of the year.

    全年營運現金流為 1.543 億美元,比去年同期增加 7,830 萬美元,年底現金餘額為 2.686 億美元。

  • As Billy mentioned, we believe that we have adequate cash to self-fund our growth moving forward, and we will be free cash flow positive in 2026.

    正如 Billy 所提到的,我們相信我們有足夠的現金來支持我們未來的成長,並且到 2026 年我們的自由現金流將為正值。

  • Separately, we will be changing the way we approach the PET specialty channel.

    另外,我們將改變對待 PET 專業管道的方式。

  • As you know, that channel has struggled quite a bit over the past few years, and our market share is underdeveloped in that channel.

    如您所知,該通路在過去幾年中遇到了不少困難,我們在該通路的市佔率還不夠成熟。

  • We continue to believe that it represents a sizable opportunity, but we need to change our route to market and invest in some new approaches that would enable those customers to succeed.

    我們仍然相信這代表著一個巨大的機會,但我們需要改變我們的市場路線,並投資一些新的方法,以使這些客戶能夠取得成功。

  • In conjunction with that move, we intend to change our distribution partner in that channel, and we are currently in the process of assessing the non-recurring effects that may arise from exiting our relationship with the previous distribution partner.

    配合這項舉措,我們打算更換該通路的分銷合作夥伴,目前正在評估退出與先前的分銷合作夥伴的關係可能​​產生的非經常性影響。

  • Now turning to guidance in 2025, we expect net sales of approximately $1.18 billion to $1.21 billion or approximately 21% to 24% growth year over year.

    現在談到 2025 年的預期,我們預計淨銷售額約為 11.8 億美元至 12.1 億美元,或年成長約 21% 至 24%。

  • In terms of cadence, we expect the growth rate to be slightly higher in the second half of 2025 as we re-accelerate the household penetration growth that we constrained last year to to live within our capacity limits.

    就節奏而言,我們預計 2025 年下半年的成長率將略高,因為我們將重新加速去年限制的家庭滲透率成長,以在我們的容量限制之內。

  • We are aware that this growth rate is below the 25% rate we previously outlined as the pace of growth we would average through fiscal year '27.

    我們意識到,這一成長率低於我們先前概述的 27 財年平均成長率 25%。

  • As you know, we are well ahead of that growth rate through fiscal year '24, so it is not necessary for us to grow 25% for the next few years to deliver a $1.8 billion net sales target for FY27.

    如您所知,到 24 財年,我們的成長率已經遠遠超過這一水平,因此,我們沒有必要在未來幾年內實現 25% 的成長來實現 27 財年 18 億美元的淨銷售目標。

  • We believe the market opportunity is there to maintain a higher growth rate, and our marketing model could deliver that growth.

    我們相信市場有機會維持更高的成長率,我們的行銷模式可以實現這一成長。

  • However, raising our fiscal year '27 net sales target and maintaining a 25% growth rate would require us to commit to bring on more capacity sooner.

    然而,提高我們 27 財年的淨銷售目標並維持 25% 的成長率需要我們承諾盡快提高產能。

  • This would compromise our ability to be free cash flow positive in fiscal year '26 and cause us to commit to more lines using the existing technology when we believe we are on the verge of break breakthrough new technology, technology that could could potentially deliver significantly better margins, quality, and capital efficiency.

    這將損害我們在 26 財年實現自由現金流為正的能力,並導致我們致力於使用現有技術增加更多生產線,而我們認為我們即將取得突破性的新技術,這項技術可能會帶來顯著的利潤率、品質和資本效率。

  • So we are guiding to 21% to 24% net sales growth for fiscal year '25, and this guide leads us solidly on track to deliver our long-term target of $1.8 billion in fiscal year 2027.

    因此,我們預計25財年的淨銷售額將成長21%至24%,這項預期將使我們穩步實現2027財年18億美元的長期目標。

  • For adjusted IPETA, we expect at least $210 million.

    對於調整後的 IPETA,我們預計至少為 2.1 億美元。

  • We anticipate modest adjusted gross margin expansion year over year, driven by operational improvements and do not anticipate any material inflation or pricing actions.

    我們預計,受營運改善的推動,調整後的毛利率將較上年同期溫和擴大,且預計不會出現任何重大通膨或定價行動。

  • As I mentioned a few moments ago, we expect adjusted gross margin in the first quarter of 2025 to be negatively impacted by approximately 150 basis points as inventory returns to normal levels.

    正如我剛才提到的,我們預計,隨著庫存恢復到正常水平,2025 年第一季的調整後毛利率將受到約 150 個基點的負面影響。

  • Capital expenditures are projected to be approximately $250 million this year due to a shift in timing of projects from '24 to '25.

    由於專案時間從 24 年推遲到 25 年,預計今年的資本支出約為 2.5 億美元。

  • The majority of the spend is on the installation of new capacity to support our growth.

    大部分支出用於安裝新產能以支持我們的成長。

  • In summary, we are very pleased with our 2024 results as they demonstrate discipline growth, and we made significant profitability improvements.

    總而言之,我們對 2024 年的業績感到非常滿意,因為它們展現了紀律性增長,並且我們實現了顯著的盈利能力提高。

  • We are very encouraged by the progress we have made and are now comfortable enough with the stability of the operations to raise our 2027 margin targets.

    我們對所取得的進展感到非常鼓舞,現在對營運的穩定性感到足夠滿意,可以提高我們的 2027 年利潤目標。

  • That concludes our overview.

    我們的概述到此結束。

  • Now I'll turn it back to Billy for some closing remarks.

    現在我將話題轉回給比利,請他做一些結束語。

  • Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

    Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Todd.

    謝謝,托德。

  • As a reminder, we are presenting at the CAGNY conference later this morning at 8:00 AM Eastern time, so we will not be hosting a Q&A session after the call this quarter.

    提醒一下,我們將於今天上午東部時間 8:00 在 CAGNY 會議上進行演講,因此本季電話會議結束後我們將不會舉辦問答環節。

  • We look forward to speaking with many of you in the coming days and weeks.

    我們期待在未來幾天和幾週內與你們交談。

  • I'll leave you with this quote from an unknown author, paraphrasing a song from the police, every snack you make, every meal you bake, every bite you take, I'll be watching you.

    我會給你留下這句來自不知名的作者的話,引用警察的一首歌,你做的每一份零食,你烤的每頓飯,你吃的每一口食物,我都會注視著你。

  • To that I would add, feed your dog Freshpet, and your guilt will disappear.

    對此我想補充一點,給你的狗餵食 Freshpet,你的內疚感就會消失。

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。