Freshpet Inc (FRPT) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to Freshpet's first-quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

問候。歡迎參加 Freshpet 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce Rachel Ulch, Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我很高興介紹投資者關係副總裁 Rachel Ulch。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Good morning, and welcome to Freshpet's first quarter 2025 earnings call and webcast. On today's call are Billy Cyr, Chief Executive Officer; and Todd Cunfer, Chief Financial Officer; Scott Morris, President and Co-Founder, will also be available for Q&A.

早安，歡迎參加 Freshpet 2025 年第一季財報電話會議及網路廣播。參加今天電話會議的有執行長 Billy Cyr；以及財務長 Todd Cunfer；總裁兼聯合創始人 Scott Morris 也將出席問答環節。

Before we begin, please remember that during the course of this call, management may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These include statements related to our long-term strategy and targets, prospects and plans for growth timing and adequacy of capacity, potential impact of tariffs and consumer sentiment, expectations to be free cash flow positive in 2026 and 2025 guidance.

在我們開始之前，請記住，在本次電話會議期間，管理層可能會根據 1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案做出前瞻性陳述。其中包括與我們的長期策略和目標、成長時機和產能充足性的前景和計劃、關稅和消費者情緒的潛在影響、2026 年自由現金流為正的預期以及 2025 年的指引相關的聲明。

Please refer to the earnings press release and our most recent filings with the SEC, including our 2024 annual report on Form 10-K, all available on our website for a discussion of the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from any forward-looking statements made today.

請參閱收益新聞稿和我們最近向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交的文件，包括我們 2024 年 10-K 表年度報告，所有這些文件均可在我們的網站上查閱，以了解可能導致實際結果與今天做出的任何前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的因素。

Please note that on today's call, management will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, such as EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA, among others. While the company believes these non-GAAP financial measures provide useful information for investors, the presentation of this information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the financial information presented in accordance with GAAP.

請注意，在今天的電話會議上，管理層將參考某些非 GAAP 財務指標，例如 EBITDA 和調整後的 EBITDA 等。雖然公司認為這些非公認會計準則財務指標為投資者提供了有用的信息，但這些資訊的呈現並非旨在單獨考慮或替代按照公認會計準則呈現的財務資訊。

Please refer to today's press release for how management defines such non-GAAP measures, why management believes such non-GAAP measures are useful, a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable measures prepared in accordance with GAAP and limitations associated with such non-GAAP measures.

請參閱今天的新聞稿，了解管理層如何定義此類非 GAAP 指標、管理層為何認為此類非 GAAP 指標有用、非 GAAP 財務指標與按照 GAAP 編制的最具可比性的指標之間的調節以及與此類非 GAAP 指標相關的限制。

Finally, the company has produced a presentation that contains many of the key metrics that will be discussed on this call. That presentation can be found on the company's investor website. Management's commentary will not specifically walk through the presentation on the call rather as a summary of the results and guidance they will discuss today.

最後，該公司製作了一份演示文稿，其中包含本次電話會議將討論的許多關鍵指標。該演示文稿可以在該公司的投資者網站上找到。管理層的評論不會具體介紹電話會議上的演示，而是作為他們今天將討論的結果和指導的總結。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Billy Cyr, Chief Executive Officer.

說到這裡，我想把電話轉給執行長 Billy Cyr。

Thank you, Rachel, and good morning, everyone. Since our last earnings call in February, we've seen a significant shift in the macro environment that has impacted our growth.

謝謝你，Rachel，大家早安。自從二月上次財報電話會議以來，我們看到宏觀環境發生了重大變化，這對我們的成長產生了影響。

The message I would like you to take away from this call is that despite the significant economic uncertainty facing consumers today, number one, Freshpet has continued to significantly outperform the category amongst every age and income group. And number two, Freshpet remains a structurally advantaged business with a long runway for growth in a category with meaningful long-term tailwinds.

我希望你們從這次電話會議中得到的訊息是，儘管當今消費者面臨著巨大的經濟不確定性，但首先，Freshpet 在各個年齡和收入群體中的表現仍然遠遠優於同類產品。第二，Freshpet 仍然是一家具有結構優勢的企業，在具有長期重大順風的類別中擁有很長的成長空間。

As we have done over and over again throughout our company's history, we will be nimble and adjust to this new macro environment, and we still expect to deliver outsized performance against a challenging backdrop. It just might not be the same magnitude of performance we've delivered over the past few years until there is greater economic certainty amongst the prospective consumers we are targeting to join the Freshpet franchise.

正如我們公司歷史上一遍又一遍地做的那樣，我們將靈活地適應新的宏觀環境，並且我們仍然期望在充滿挑戰的背景下取得卓越的業績。在我們瞄準的潛在消費者對加入 Freshpet 特許經營權具有更大的經濟確定性之前，我們可能無法實現過去幾年所取得的同等水平的業績。

As many of you have realized over the years, Freshpet is a very data-driven company. So we have been digging into what has changed year-to-date, assessing how that would impact our near-term strategies and identifying ways we can best address those changes.

正如你們許多人多年來已經意識到的那樣，Freshpet 是一家非常注重數據的公司。因此，我們一直在深入研究今年迄今為止發生的變化，評估這些變化將如何影響我們的近期策略，並找出應對這些變化的最佳方法。

Our analysis suggests that the slowdown in our sales growth came on very quickly as the macroeconomic climate changed a few months ago and is due in part to the fact that Freshpet's consumer franchise spans all income and age groups, including consumers who are most economically insecure or uncertain today.

我們的分析表明，由於幾個月前宏觀經濟環境的變化，我們的銷售成長迅速放緩，部分原因是 Freshpet 的消費者特許經營權涵蓋所有收入和年齡組，包括當今經濟上最沒有安全感或最不確定的消費者。

Freshpet's consumer base is less defined by the income of our users and better defined by how much someone loves their dog. For the last decade, Freshpet has been able to grow through all sorts of economic conditions, and we are still growing at an upsized rate versus other dog foods and CPG brands.

Freshpet 的消費者群體不太取決於使用者的收入，而更取決於人們對狗的愛程度。在過去的十年中，Freshpet 在各種經濟條件下都實現了成長，而且與其他狗糧和 CPG 品牌相比，我們的成長速度仍然很快。

However, our model relies on an increasingly large number of consumers being in the position to reconsider their pet food and ultimately conclude that Freshpet is a better way to feed their pet. What we are seeing now is that consumer uncertainty makes them hesitant to get a new dog or replace a dog they recently lost, and it also makes them more hesitant to try more expensive pet food until they have greater clarity on their economic fortunes.

然而，我們的模型依賴越來越多的消費者能夠重新考慮他們的寵物食品，並最終得出結論，Freshpet 是餵養寵物的更好方式。我們現在看到的是，消費者的不確定性使他們不願意養新狗或更換最近丟失的狗，也使他們在對自己的經濟狀況有更清晰的認識之前不願意嘗試更昂貴的寵物食品。

We do not expect the short-term change in consumer behavior to change the long-term desire for pets or premium pet food. As such, this does not change our view of the size of a long-term Freshpet opportunity. Identifying issues and developing solutions to short-term challenges is a core competency of our team.

我們並不認為消費者行為的短期變化會改變人們對寵物或優質寵物食品的長期需求。因此，這不會改變我們對 Freshpet 長期機會規模的看法。發現問題並制定解決短期挑戰的方案是我們團隊的核心競爭力。

We are also very disciplined, that is, we will lean into our business model that focuses on advertising, retail availability and visibility and product innovation to improve our near-term prospects and will not chase short-term activities that would undermine our business model.

我們也非常自律，也就是說，我們將傾向於專注於廣告、零售可用性和可見性以及產品創新的商業模式，以改善我們的近期前景，而不會追求破壞我們商業模式的短期活動。

To continue to drive growth this year, we are adapting our plans to this economic backdrop to ensure we have the right proposition for consumers who are contemplating a new dog food today. One of the strengths of the Freshpet model is that we have the flexibility to target high potential consumers across the age and income spectrum.

為了在今年繼續推動成長，我們正在根據當前的經濟背景調整計劃，以確保我們能為今天正在考慮購買新狗糧的消費者提供正確的建議。Freshpet 模式的優點之一是，我們可以靈活地瞄準各個年齡層和收入水平的高潛力消費者。

So from a media standpoint, we are increasing our advertising investment and tailoring our media strategies to attract more higher income consumers via digital social channels as well as linear TV. From a product standpoint, we will be launching a new entry price point bag product under the Freshpet Complete Nutrition label that is similar to the roll product we launched two years ago amidst consumer concerns about inflation.

因此，從媒體的角度來看，我們正在增加廣告投資並調整媒體策略，以透過數位社交管道和線性電視吸引更多高收入消費者。從產品角度來看，我們將在 Freshpet Complete Nutrition 標籤下推出一款新的入門價位袋裝產品，該產品與我們兩年前在消費者擔心通貨膨脹的情況下推出的捲裝產品類似。

The complete nutrition role has driven trial with a lower price point and ultimately, those households trade up within the portfolio, and we believe the same will happen for the bag product. We are also focusing on multipacks to give consumers better value and help stock up as they potentially space out their shopping trips.

完整的營養作用推動了較低價格點的嘗試，最終，這些家庭在產品組合內進行交易，我們相信袋裝產品也會發生同樣的情況。我們也專注於多件裝產品，為消費者提供更好的價值，並幫助他們在分散購物時間的同時進行囤貨。

From a channel standpoint, we have expanded our small DTC business nationally so that we can reach more consumers who place a high value on subscription service, and we are making progress on getting Freshpet into more value-oriented stores, including club outlets.

從通路角度來看，我們已經在全國範圍內擴展了我們的小型 DTC 業務，以便我們能夠接觸到更多高度重視訂閱服務的消費者，並且我們正在推進 Freshpet 進入更多以價值為導向的商店，包括俱樂部門市。

I'm pleased to share that we are now in our first Sam's Club store and the early results are encouraging. We are optimistic that this will lead to a greater expansion over time. We are also taking the necessary steps to balance our capacity and organizational capability investments with the anticipated demand so that we can meet our longer-term margin and cash generation targets even if we have lower levels of net sales.

我很高興地告訴大家，我們現在已經進入了第一家山姆會員商店，早期的業績令人鼓舞。我們樂觀地認為，隨著時間的推移，這將帶來更大的擴張。我們也採取必要措施，平衡我們的產能和組織能力投資與預期需求，以便即使我們的淨銷售額較低，也能實現我們的長期利潤和現金產生目標。

We've already taken some actions against those goals and will take more if the current economic climate persists. To be clear, we continue to grow and add new users across all income and age groups, and Freshpet represented an outsized portion of the category household and net sales growth.

我們已經針對這些目標採取了一些行動，如果當前的經濟環境持續下去，我們將採取更多行動。需要明確的是，我們將繼續發展並增加所有收入和年齡組的新用戶，而 Freshpet 在該類別家庭和淨銷售額成長中佔據了很大一部分。

Those new consumers we are tracking are just not a big enough group to support a growth rate above 20% right now. It is also important to note that we do not see consumers trading down or out of Freshpet. We just aren't adding new consumers at the same rate we've historically given the macro uncertainty.

我們所追蹤的新消費者群體還不足以支撐目前 20% 以上的成長率。值得注意的是，我們並未看到消費者降低 Freshpet 的購買價格或放棄購買。鑑於宏觀不確定性，我們增加新消費者的速度沒有像歷史上那麼快。

Despite the shift in consumer sentiment, there are demographics that continue to demonstrate resilience. Our analysis shows that higher income consumers particularly those who tend to buy online and via subscription are continuing to drive sales for more premium offerings, and Freshpet is amongst those winning brands as our total e-commerce business was up 43% in the quarter.

儘管消費者情緒發生了變化，但人口統計數據仍表現出持續的韌性。我們的分析表明，高收入消費者，特別是那些傾向於在線購買和訂閱的消費者，正在繼續推動更多優質產品的銷售，而 Freshpet 就是其中的贏家品牌之一，因為我們本季度的電子商務業務總體增長了 43%。

Those consumers are the least economically sensitive consumers, and they continue to get dogs and trade up their dog food. And low-cost brands or private label are also winning as consumers who find relatively little differentiation between the various kibble brands are trading down to lower cost products when times are tight.

這些消費者是經濟敏感度最低的消費者，他們會繼續養狗併升級狗糧。低成本品牌或自有品牌也正在贏得勝利，因為當經濟緊張時，消費者發現各種粗磨穀物品牌之間的差異相對較小，他們傾向於選擇成本較低的產品。

I believe the consumer dynamic I just described explains the trends all of you have been seeing in the weekly Nielsen data. As we said last quarter, we would watch the growth trends very closely for any hint that our plan is not as effective as it has been in years past and that we have the tools and flexibility to drive incremental growth if it slows.

我相信我剛才描述的消費者動態解釋了大家在尼爾森每週數據中看到的趨勢。正如我們上個季度所說的那樣，我們將密切關注成長趨勢，以發現任何跡象表明我們的計劃不如過去幾年有效，如果成長放緩，我們是否有工具和靈活性來推動增量成長。

Year-to-date, we've seen the impact of the increasing macroeconomic pressure and have increased our advertising investment, but we believe it's also prudent to assume the cost to acquire new households will remain elevated for the time being.

今年迄今為止，我們已經看到了宏觀經濟壓力不斷增加的影響，並增加了廣告投入，但我們認為，謹慎地假設獲取新家庭的成本暫時仍將保持高位。

As such, we are going to plan as if the conditions we saw in the first quarter continue for the balance of the year. For 2025, we now expect net sales of $1.12 billion to $1.15 billion or approximately 15% to 18% growth year-over-year, adjusted EBITDA in the range of $190 million to $210 million and capital expenditures of approximately $225 million.

因此，我們將按照第一季的情況持續到今年年底的計劃進行規劃。對於 2025 年，我們目前預計淨銷售額為 11.2 億美元至 11.5 億美元，或同比增長約 15% 至 18%，調整後 EBITDA 在 1.9 億美元至 2.1 億美元之間，資本支出約為 2.25 億美元。

We believe this pragmatic approach will enable us to rightsize our organization and capacity investments now so that we can deliver the cash and margin commitments we have made. If the environment improves, we'll add those investments back. If it gets worse, we'll take additional actions. Todd will walk through more details of our updated 2025 guidance in a few minutes.

我們相信，這種務實的方法將使我們能夠現在調整組織和產能投資，以便我們可以兌現我們所做的現金和利潤承諾。如果環境改善，我們會增加這些投資。如果情況變得更糟，我們將採取進一步措施。幾分鐘後，托德將詳細介紹我們更新後的 2025 年指南。

The obvious question is how this economic uncertainty impacts our long-term net sales target of $1.8 billion by 2027. Given that this economic uncertainty arrived so quickly in Q1 and the drivers of the uncertainty, for example, tariffs, government downsizing and inflation have not settled, it is hard to say how long the current trends will continue.

顯而易見的問題是，這種經濟不確定性如何影響我們在 2027 年達到 18 億美元的長期淨銷售額目標。鑑於這種經濟不確定性在第一季來得如此之快，而且不確定性的驅動因素（例如關稅、政府縮減和通貨膨脹）尚未解決，很難說當前的趨勢將持續多久。

As such, we are hesitant to update our long-term target until we have greater clarity on the magnitude of the impact and the duration, particularly since the underlying category and brand tailwinds have proven to be incredibly sustainable for such a long period of time and through so many economic challenges.

因此，在我們更清楚地了解影響的程度和持續時間之前，我們不願意更新我們的長期目標，特別是因為事實證明，在如此長的時間內，在經歷瞭如此多的經濟挑戰之後，基礎類別和品牌的順風具有令人難以置信的可持續性。

And we believe that there will be pent-up demand for dogs when the conditions do improve just as has happened during previous times of economic uncertainty. As you might imagine, we've done contingency planning so that we are prepared for a wide range of potential scenarios.

我們相信，當情況確實改善時，對狗的需求將會出現，就像以前經濟不確定時期發生的那樣。正如您可能想像的那樣，我們已經做好了應急計劃，以便為各種潛在情況做好準備。

As we do this planning, we are carefully balancing our long-term goals with our near-term need to demonstrate continued strong performance on some of the most critical metrics such as margins and cash generation that we worked so hard to restore over the past two years.

在製定這項規劃時，我們正在仔細平衡我們的長期目標和短期需求，以證明我們在過去兩年中努力恢復的一些最關鍵指標（如利潤率和現金產生率）繼續保持強勁表現。

In the end, we believe that Freshpet should, number one, be recognized as a best-in-class growth company with growth well in excess of most CPG companies. We expect to deliver a disproportionate share of category growth and build market share at a healthy rate.

最後，我們相信 Freshpet 首先應該被認可為一流的成長型公司，其成長速度遠遠超過大多數 CPG 公司。我們期望實現不成比例的品類成長，並以健康的速度擴大市場份額。

Number two, sustain and expand our adjusted gross margin so that we have adequate dry powder to invest in both our growth and provide confidence that Freshpet is a structurally sound business with investable economics.

第二，維持並擴大我們的調整後毛利率，以便我們有足夠的資金來投資於我們的成長，並使我們相信 Freshpet 是一家結構穩健、具有可投資經濟效益的企業。

As part of this, we will continue to develop and deploy our new production technologies and may in fact take advantage of any available production downtime to roll out new technologies that are capable of expanding our margins and improving quality more quickly once they are validated.

作為其中的一部分，我們將繼續開發和部署新的生產技術，並且實際上可以利用任何可用的生產停機時間來推出能夠在經過驗證後擴大我們的利潤並更快地提高品質的新技術。

Number three, continue to capture the benefits of increasing scale across the P&L. Even if we grow at a slower pace, we need to scale our organizational investments so that we can continue to capture scale benefits.

第三，繼續掌握損益表規模擴大所帶來的好處。即使我們的成長速度較慢，我們也需要擴大組織投資，以便能夠持續獲得規模效益。

Number four, deliver our commitment to be free cash flow positive in fiscal year '26. If we grow slower, we will slow our pace of capacity expansion to match our demand. This will enable us to demonstrate that Freshpet can self-fund its growth ambitions.

第四，兌現我們的承諾，在26財年實現自由現金流為正。如果我們的成長速度放緩，我們就會放慢產能擴張的腳步來滿足需求。這將使我們能夠證明 Freshpet 能夠自行籌資實現其成長目標。

If we do this well, we expect Freshpet will emerge stronger from the current period of uncertainty and with a large consumer franchise, healthy margins, strong cash generation and ample capacity to meet our long-term growth needs.

如果我們做得好，我們預計 Freshpet 將在當前的不確定時期變得更加強大，並擁有龐大的消費者特許經營權、健康的利潤率、強勁的現金產生能力和充足的產能來滿足我們的長期成長需求。

Finally, while all the focus is on the topline, and we continue to believe the topline is important, we don't want anyone to lose sight of the tremendous progress we've made on our operations. The strong performance we had last year continued into Q1, and we believe we are operating better today than at any point in the last five years.

最後，雖然所有的焦點都集中在收入上，我們仍然相信收入很重要，但我們不希望任何人忽視我們在營運上的巨大進步。我們去年的強勁表現延續到了第一季度，我們相信今天的營運狀況比過去五年來的任何時候都要好。

Our throughputs are up, and this is making tremendous progress on gaining operating efficiencies, our quality costs continue to be low, and our logistics costs are well below our previous long-term target. This will serve us well as we continue to grow, providing ample capacity to meet our expanding demand at very good margins, and it will provide ample dry powder to ensure that we can invest in high-return growth drivers.

我們的產量上升了，在提高營運效率方面取得了巨大的進步，我們的品質成本持續保持低位，我們的物流成本遠低於我們先前的長期目標。這將為我們的持續成長提供良好的服務，提供充足的產能，以非常好的利潤率滿足我們不斷增長的需求，並提供充足的資金，確保我們能夠投資於高回報的成長動力。

Now I'd like to briefly provide some highlights from the first quarter. First quarter net sales were $263.2 million, up approximately 18% year-over-year, primarily driven by volume growth. As we discussed in February, we changed our pet specialty distribution partner in the first quarter which ultimately impacted our growth by approximately 1 point.

現在我想簡要介紹第一季的一些亮點。第一季淨銷售額為 2.632 億美元，較去年同期成長約 18%，主要得益於銷售成長。正如我們在二月討論的那樣，我們在第一季更換了寵物專業分銷合作夥伴，這最終對我們的成長產生了約 1 個百分點的影響。

We signed a new distribution agreement with a partner named Pet Food Experts and feel confident about our route to market moving forward. Adjusted gross margin in the first quarter was 45.7% compared to 45.3% in the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter was $35.5 million, up approximately $5 million or 16% year-over-year.

我們與名為 Pet Food Experts 的合作夥伴簽署了新的分銷協議，並對我們未來的市場發展充滿信心。第一季調整後毛利率為45.7%，去年同期為45.3%。第一季調整後 EBITDA 為 3,550 萬美元，年增約 500 萬美元，增幅 16%。

We still have a very small share of a very large category and continue to expect sizable market share gains this year. Per Nielsen omnichannel data for the 52 weeks ending [3-29, '25], we compete in the $54 billion US pet food category, and we have only a 3.5% market share within the $37 billion US dog food and treats segment.

我們在一個很大的類別中只佔有很小的份額，並且預計今年我們的市場份額將大幅增長。根據尼爾森截至 [2025 年 3 月 29 日] 的 52 週全通路數據，我們在價值 540 億美元的美國寵物食品類別中競爭，而在價值 370 億美元的美國狗糧和零食領域，我們僅佔有 3.5% 的市場份額。

In Nielsen brick-and-mortar customers, defined as xAOC plus PAD, we have a 96% market share within the gently cooked fresh frozen branded dog food segment. From a retail perspective, we are now in 28,521 stores, 23% of which have multiple fridges in the US and Canada. We ended the quarter with 37,044 fridges or approximately 1.9 million cubic feet and have an average of 20.8 SKUs in distribution.

在尼爾森實體客戶（定義為 xAOC 加 PAD）中，我們在輕煮新鮮冷凍品牌狗糧領域佔有 96% 的市場份額。從零售角度來看，我們目前在美國和加拿大的 28,521 家商店中，其中 23％ 擁有多台冰箱。截至本季末，我們共有 37,044 台冰箱，約 190 萬立方英尺，平均分銷 20.8 個 SKU。

Distribution in grocery is 78% ACV, and in xAOC, it is only 67%. Retailer discussions are going well, and we continue to expect 2025 to be a more normalized year on fridge expansions with a focus on second and third fridges. We remain very excited about the new store concepts we presented at CAGNY, and we'll go into greater detail on that later this year or next year as customers begin to test or expand them.

雜貨店的分銷為 78% ACV，而在 xAOC 中僅為 67%。零售商的討論進展順利，我們繼續預計 2025 年將是冰箱擴張更加正常的一年，重點是第二台和第三台冰箱。我們對在 CAGNY 上展示的新店概念感到非常興奮，隨著客戶開始測試或擴展這些概念，我們將在今年稍後或明年更詳細地介紹這些概念。

Household penetration as of March 30 was 14.1 million households, up 13% year-over-year and total buy rate was $110, up 6% year-over-year. MVPs accounted for 2.2 million of those households, up 21% year-over-year and represented 69% of our sales in the last 12 months with an average buy rate of $498.

截至 3 月 30 日，家庭普及率為 1,410 萬戶，年增 13%，總購買率為 110 美元，年增 6%。其中 MVP 涵蓋了 220 萬個家庭，年增 21%，占我們過去 12 個月銷售額的 69%，平均購買價格為 498 美元。

Moving to capacity. Our new bag line in Kitchen South started on time and on budget in March, bringing us to a total of 15 lines across our manufacturing footprint. We have one additional bag line that is expected to commence production in the fourth quarter of this year in Bethlehem, and it will be testing new production technology.

已達到容量上限。我們位於 Kitchen South 的新袋子生產線於 3 月按時按預算投入運行，使我們的製造基地生產線總數達到 15 條。我們還有一條額外的袋子生產線，預計今年第四季在伯利恆開始生產，並將測試新的生產技術。

We continue to find ways to drive greater capital efficiency and have been also working on other new technologies that can be retrofitted to existing lines. As a reminder, we commit to the incremental capacity from a new line about 18 to 24 months out. We have ample capacity today to support our growth for this year and next year and have contingency plans on future expansion projects if the macroeconomic environment worsens.

我們不斷尋找提高資本效率的方法，同時也致力於研究可以改造現有生產線的其他新技術。提醒一下，我們承諾在大約 18 到 24 個月後從新生產線增加產能。我們目前擁有充足的產能來支持今年和明年的成長，如果宏觀經濟環境惡化，我們也為未來的擴張項目制定了應急計畫。

In summary, this is clearly not where we expected to be when we rolled out our revised long-term plan at CAGNY a little more than two months ago, but the consumer dynamic has changed very quickly. We believe we are taking the right steps to address the current environment while not losing sight of our longer-term goals. We hope you agree.

總而言之，這顯然不是我們兩個多月前在 CAGNY 推出修訂後的長期計劃時所預期的，但消費者動態已經發生了非常快的變化。我們相信，我們正在採取正確的措施來應對當前的環境，同時也沒有忽略我們的長期目標。我們希望您同意。

Now let me turn it over to Todd to walk through the details of the first quarter results and our updated 2025 guidance. Todd?

現在，讓我將時間交給托德，讓他詳細介紹第一季的業績以及我們更新後的 2025 年指引。托德？

Thank you, Billy, and good morning, everyone. The first quarter results demonstrated growth across channels, but fell below our expectations, leading us to revise our outlook. Now I'll give you some more color on our financials and updated guidance for the year. First quarter net sales were $263.2 million, up approximately 18% year-over-year.

謝謝你，比利，大家早安。第一季業績顯示各通路均實現成長，但仍低於我們的預期，因此我們修改了預期。現在我將向您詳細介紹我們的財務狀況和今年的最新指導。第一季淨銷售額為 2.632 億美元，較去年同期成長約 18%。

Volume contributed 14.9% growth, and we had positive price mix of 2.7%, primarily driven by mix.

銷量貢獻了 14.9% 的成長，而我們的價格組合為正 2.7%，這主要受組合推動。

We saw a broad-based consumption growth across channels. For Nielsen measured dollars, we saw 17% growth in xAOC, 16% in total US pet retail, 16% in US food and 7% growth in pet specialty. The change in our pet specialty distributor impacted our net sales growth by about 1 point and was offset by unmeasured channel growth of about 1 point.

我們看到各個通路的消費普遍成長。以尼爾森衡量的美元計算，我們發現 xAOC 增加了 17%，美國寵物零售總額增加了 16%，美國食品成長了 16%，寵物專賣店增加了 7%。我們的寵物專業經銷商的變更對我們的淨銷售成長產生了約 1 個百分點的影響，但被約 1 個百分點的未測量通路成長所抵銷。

First quarter adjusted gross margin was 45.7% compared to 45.3% in the prior year period. This slight increase was driven by lower input costs and reduced quality cost. Please note that the fourth quarter gross margin had a onetime manufacturing benefit of 150 basis points that we gave back in the first quarter as we had indicated when we reported the fourth quarter and full year results.

第一季調整後毛利率為45.7%，去年同期為45.3%。這一小幅成長是由於投入成本降低和品質成本降低。請注意，第四季度毛利率有 150 個基點的一次性製造收益，我們在第一季度返還了這筆收益，正如我們在報告第四季度和全年業績時所指出的那樣。

First quarter adjusted SG&A was 32.2% of net sales compared to 31.7% in the prior year period. This increase was primarily due to increased media as a percent of net sales partially offset by reduced logistics as a percentage of net sales.

第一季調整後的銷售、一般及行政費用佔淨銷售額的 32.2%，去年同期為 31.7%。這一增長主要是由於媒體佔淨銷售額的百分比增加，但物流佔淨銷售額的百分比減少部分抵消了這一增長。

Please note, we had a number of non-recurring charges in the quarter, including an accounts receivable write-off in connection with the liquidation of one of our pet specialty distributors, an accrual for legal obligations related to the ongoing litigation with Philips and termination costs due to a business change in our international go-to-market strategy.

請注意，本季度我們有一些非經常性費用，包括與我們的一家寵物專業經銷商清算有關的應收賬款註銷、與飛利浦正在進行的訴訟有關的法律義務的應計費用以及由於我們的國際市場戰略業務變化而產生的終止費用。

We spent 15.1% of net sales on media in the quarter, up from 14.3% of net sales in the prior year period. Logistics costs were 5.8% of net sales in the quarter compared to 6.4% in the prior year period. First quarter adjusted EBITDA was $35.5 million compared to $30.6 million in the prior year period. The improvement was primarily driven by higher gross profit partially offset by higher adjusted SG&A expenses.

本季度，我們將淨銷售額的 15.1% 用於媒體，高於去年同期的 14.3%。本季物流成本佔淨銷售額的 5.8%，去年同期為 6.4%。第一季調整後的 EBITDA 為 3,550 萬美元，而去年同期為 3,060 萬美元。這項改善主要得益於更高的毛利，但調整後的銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 有所增加，部分抵消了這一增長。

Capital spending for the first quarter was $26.5 million. Operating cash flow was $4.8 million in the first quarter, and we had cash on hand of $243.7 million at the end of the quarter. We still expect to be free cash flow positive in 2026 and believe we have the ability to self-fund our growth going forward.

第一季的資本支出為2650萬美元。第一季的經營現金流為 480 萬美元，季末我們手上的現金為 2.437 億美元。我們仍然預計 2026 年自由現金流將為正，並相信我們有能力為未來的成長提供資金。

Now turning to guidance for 2025. We now expect net sales of approximately $1.12 billion to $1.15 billion or approximately 15% to 18% growth year-over-year. Compared to our previous guidance, approximately $1.18 billion to $1.21 billion or approximately 21% to 24% growth year-over-year.

現在轉向 2025 年的指導。我們現在預計淨銷售額約為 11.2 億美元至 11.5 億美元，或年增約 15% 至 18%。與我們先前的預期相比，約為 11.8 億美元至 12.1 億美元，或年成長約 21% 至 24%。

As Billy mentioned, we are now assuming the conditions we saw in the first quarter continue for the balance of the year. In terms of cadence, we expect a sequential increase in net sales per quarter. We are lapping tougher comparisons in the first half, plan to invest more heavily in media in the second quarter to drive household penetration growth.

正如比利所提到的，我們現在假設第一季看到的情況將持續到今年年底。就節奏而言，我們預計每季淨銷售額將持續成長。我們上半年面臨更嚴峻的競爭情勢，計劃在第二季加大對媒體的投資，以推動家庭普及率的成長。

We'll be launching more value-oriented offerings in the second half and expect to modestly increase distribution throughout the remainder of the year. We now expect adjusted EBITDA in the range of $190 million to $210 million compared to at least $210 million previously, given the lower rate of net sales growth.

我們將在下半年推出更多以價值為導向的產品，並預計在今年剩餘時間內適度增加分銷。鑑於淨銷售額成長率較低，我們現在預期調整後的 EBITDA 在 1.9 億美元至 2.1 億美元之間，而先前的預期至少為 2.1 億美元。

For cadence, we expect adjusted EBITDA to be back half weighted with sequential adjusted EBITDA dollar and margin improvement throughout the rest of the year. Media as a percent of sales is expected to be greater than 2024. We anticipate modest adjusted gross margin expansion year-over-year, driven by operational improvements and do not anticipate any material inflation or pricing actions.

就節奏而言，我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將回落一半，今年剩餘時間內調整後的 EBITDA 美元數和利潤率將有所改善。媒體佔銷售額的百分比預計將高於 2024 年。我們預計，受營運改善的推動，調整後的毛利率將同比小幅擴大，並且不會出現任何重大通膨或定價行動。

In regards to tariffs, we are monitoring the announcements closely and have contingency plans in place if we need to make any changes to our supply chain. As a reminder, only 5% of our US COGS come from imported raw materials, and we do not have any US sales imported as finished goods. So the impact to our P&L should be minimal.

關於關稅，我們正在密切關注公告，並製定應急計劃，以應對我們需要對供應鏈進行任何更改的情況。提醒一下，我們在美國的銷貨成本中只有 5% 來自進口原料，我們沒有任何以成品形式進口到美國的銷售。因此對我們的損益的影響應該是最小的。

We are still assessing the potential sales impact of any retaliatory tariffs as we do export pet food from the US to Canada and the UK. Capital expenditures are now projected to be approximately $225 million this year compared to approximately $250 million previously. The majority of the spend is on the installation of new capacity to support our growth in the out years.

由於我們確實從美國向加拿大和英國出口寵物食品，我們仍在評估任何報復性關稅對銷售的潛在影響。今年的資本支出預計約為 2.25 億美元，而之前的則約為 2.5 億美元。大部分支出用於安裝新產能，以支持我們未來幾年的成長。

We do expect to experience some impact from tariffs, particularly related to the increased cost of steel for new construction and new equipment. Our estimate of that impact is included in the updated capital spending projection.

我們確實預計關稅會造成一些影響，特別是與新建築和新設備的鋼材成本增加有關。我們對該影響的估計已包含在更新的資本支出預測中。

In summary, we are highly focused on continuing to drive topline growth and profitability improvements despite the current economic uncertainty, and we believe we have taken the appropriate steps to be nimble and address the challenges based on what we know today.

總而言之，儘管當前經濟存在不確定性，我們仍高度致力於繼續推動營收成長和獲利能力的提高，並且我們相信，我們已經採取了適當的措施，根據我們目前所了解的情況靈活應對挑戰。

We remain very optimistic about the long-term potential for Freshpet and believe this will ultimately be viewed as another short-term headwind that we must overcome, as we have overcome previous headwinds on our path to building an advantaged business in an attractive category. That concludes our overview.

我們仍然對 Freshpet 的長期潛力非常樂觀，並相信這最終將被視為我們必須克服的另一個短期阻力，因為我們在打造具有吸引力的類別中的優勢業務的道路上已經克服了之前的阻力。我們的概述到此結束。

We will now be glad to answer your questions. As a reminder, we ask that you please focus your questions on the quarter, guidance and the company's operations. Operator?

我們現在很樂意回答您的問題。提醒一下，請您將問題集中在季度、指導和公司營運上。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Ken Goldman JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）肯·戈德曼摩根大通。

Thank you. I wanted to start by asking about the updated guidance range. Just in light of recent scanner data and then also in light of some economists anticipating that the economy itself slumps a little bit ahead from here, was there any thought of assuming that the macro worsened ahead?

謝謝。我想先詢問一下更新後的指導範圍。僅根據最近的掃描儀數據，也根據一些經濟學家預測經濟本身將從現在開始略微下滑，是否有人認為宏觀經濟未來會惡化？

And correct me if I'm wrong, that you're assuming that the situation stays constant, I'm just curious if there's enough downside risk baked in, just given some of the lack of visibility ahead?

如果我錯了，請糾正我，您假設情況保持不變，我只是好奇是否有足夠的下行風險，只是因為缺乏未來的可見性？

Yeah. Ken, we obviously looked at a wide range of scenarios. We really focused on where is our business and what is it performing at right now. And we believe, based on what we're seeing in the consumption data and what we know about our marketing plans for the back half of the year and the new customer distribution gains that we'll have in the back half of the year, we feel like we're in the right spot.

是的。肯，我們顯然考慮了各種各樣的場景。我們真正關注的是我們的業 務處於什麼階段以及目前的表現如何。我們相信，根據我們所看到的消費數據以及我們對下半年行銷計劃的了解以及下半年新客戶分銷的增長，我們覺得自己處於正確的位置。

But as we said in the commentary, the assumption that we built here was that the consumer environment that we had in the first quarter would continue for the balance of the year. If it gets materially worse, obviously, that would have some impact, and we would take some actions based on that.

但正如我們在評論中所說，我們在這裡建立的假設是，我們在第一季所擁有的消費環境將在今年剩餘時間內持續下去。如果情況變得更糟，顯然會產生一些影響，我們會據此採取一些行動。

If it gets better, obviously, that would be good news for us. But we look at it on balance, we feel like we're in a fairly stable place right now, and we're projecting that moving forward.

如果情況好轉，顯然對我們來說是個好消息。但總的來說，我們覺得我們現在處於相當穩定的狀態，我們預計這種情況會繼續向前發展。

All right. Thank you for that. And then just on price mix. It was a little higher than some observers, including us anticipated. I assume it's mostly mix, but just curious what your guidance assumes for the rest of the year on this line?

好的。謝謝你。然後只是價格組合。這比包括我們在內的一些觀察家預期的要高一些。我認為它主要是混合的，但只是好奇您對今年剩餘時間的指導有何假設？

Sure. I mean most of it was mix. For example, our Homestyle Creations sub-brand is doing very, very well right now, which is one example of what's helping us there. We also had some favorable gross to net retailer returns, markdowns, things of that nature, which helped the pricing piece. There was no actual list price changes. Obviously, there is no intention to do that whatsoever.

當然。我的意思是大部分都是混合的。例如，我們的 Homestyle Creations 子品牌目前表現非常非常好，這就是對我們有幫助的一個例子。我們也獲得了一些有利的總額與淨額零售商回報、降價等性質的優惠，這有助於定價。實際標價沒有變化。顯然，根本沒有這樣做的意圖。

This was probably the high end for the year. We actually had some favorable price mix in the back nine months of last year. So it will be a little bit harder to lap. So I think we'll have a little bit of favorability, but not to the extent that we had in Q1.

這可能是今年的最高水準。事實上，去年後九個月我們的價格組合有一些優勢。因此，研磨起來會稍微困難一些。因此我認為我們會有一點好感，但不會達到第一季的程度。

Peter Benedict, Baird.

彼得·本尼迪克特，貝爾德。

Hey, guys. Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. First one, just curious what's most incremental across the value product, the marketing, the channel strategies that you outlined for this year, just relative to what you were thinking back on the last call. What's the most meaningful or impactful change there?

嘿，大家好。早安.感謝您回答這個問題。首先，我只是好奇，相對於您在上次通話中想到的，您今年概述的價值產品、行銷和通路策略中最大的增量是什麼。那裡最有意義或最有影響力的改變是什麼？

Hey, Peter. It's Scott. So I think what we're doing right now is I think the way to think about it is we're taking everything we've been planning for a very long period of time and accelerating it forward. So if you look at what we're doing from an affordability standpoint, we're moving that even faster forward as we mentioned on the brand.

嘿，彼得。我是史考特。所以我認為我們現在正在做的事情是，我認為思考的方式是，我們正在加速我們長期計劃的一切。因此，如果從可負擔性的角度來看我們所做的事情，正如我們在品牌中提到的那樣，我們正在更快地向前發展。

We're changing the marketing mix, where we're looking at media and also the targeting and also the creative. I think those are the things that we're focused on the most that we're accelerating forward to improve the speed of the business.

我們正在改變行銷組合，我們專注於媒體、目標和創意。我認為這些是我們最關注的事情，我們正在加速推進以提高業務速度。

Got it. Okay. That makes sense. And then maybe just talk about what gives you confidence in the future effectiveness of the media spend? You talked about -- Bill may reference the higher CAC, obviously, that's in place right now. Can you maybe frame where that is relative to historical ranges?

知道了。好的。這很有道理。然後也許可以談談是什麼讓您對未來媒體支出的有效性充滿信心？您談到了——比爾可能會提到更高的 CAC，顯然，這是目前已經實施的。您能否將其與歷史範圍進行比較？

And then given some of the new media strategies you have on tap, just what gives you the confidence in their ability to maybe get the CAC back to historical levels at some point?

那麼，考慮到您所掌握的一些新媒體策略，是什麼讓您相信他們有能力在某個時候讓 CAC 回到歷史水平？

So there are two major things specific to media that I think that are really important. One of them is -- and again, this is work that we started at the end of last year. This is around creative. We know that when we modify the creative just slightly, and we focus a little bit differently on the messaging, we expand the opportunity and expand the group of consumers that we can bring into the brand.

因此，我認為對媒體來說，有兩件大事非常重要。其中之一就是──這是我們在去年年底開始的工作。這是關於創意的。我們知道，當我們稍微修改創意，並在訊息傳遞上稍微改變重點時，我們就會擴大機會，並擴大我們可以為品牌帶來的消費者群體。

So we know that, that's a fact. We're working on that creative. It's in development, and we'll have it out in the next few months. So we feel really good about that piece. The second piece is that we're focusing a little bit more targeted on how we're executing the media.

所以我們知道，這是事實。我們正在致力於這項創意。它正在開發中，我們將在未來幾個月內推出它。所以我們對這件作品感覺非常好。第二點是，我們更關注如何執行媒體。

We're actually like basically focusing more and more on the MVP or that HIPPOH group, we're seeing really good growth from that group, really extraordinary growth. And that growth not only helps with household penetration, it also helps with buy rate. So we've been able to demonstrate that. So those are I think the two biggest single pieces.

實際上，我們基本上越來越關注 MVP 或 HIPPOH 組，我們看到該組實現了非常好的成長，非常非凡的成長。這種成長不僅有助於家庭普及率，也有助於提高購買率。所以我們已經能夠證明這一點。所以我認為這是兩個最大的單件作品。

The other thing you're going to start seeing more and more on is as we're being more and more productive with everything we're doing from an e-com standpoint and also direct-to-consumer standpoint. So e-com to be clear, it's like the walmart.com. We're seeing great productivity in using all of those tools.

您將會越來越多地看到的另一件事是，從電子商務的角度以及直接面向消費者的角度來看，我們所做的一切都越來越有效率。所以，更明確地說，電子商務就像是 walmart.com。我們看到使用所有這些工具都帶來了巨大的生產力。

We're seeing really fast growth when we look at overall e-commerce and also direct-to-consumer. We're starting to spend a little bit more into those areas, and we're seeing great acceleration. And the nice thing about that, the buy rate is significantly better even than the MVPs.

當我們看整體電子商務和直接面向消費者時，我們看到了非常快速的成長。我們開始在這些領域投入更多資金，並且看到了巨大的成長。其優點在於，購買率甚至比 MVP 高得多。

Bill Chappell, Truist Securities

Truist證券公司的比爾查佩爾

Thanks. Good morning. I Just wanted to talk a little bit about your thoughts on your particular market. I know in the past, you've talked about how the HIPPOHs growth has slowed down, and you talked today about how the lower income is all part of the target market.

謝謝。早安.我只是想談談您對特定市場的看法。我知道，過去您曾談到 HIPPOH 的成長如何放緩，今天您又談到低收入者都是目標市場的一部分。

I mean just how you see the market progressing going forward? Is it just the overall market has slowed in general? Or do you think some of your low-hanging fruit is pass by. And so, it's a little bit tougher to get that 20%-plus growth for the next couple of years?

我的意思是您如何看待市場未來的發展？是不是整個市場整體已經放緩了？或者您認為您已經錯過了一些唾手可得的機會。那麼，未來幾年實現 20% 以上的成長率會更難一些嗎？

Yeah. There's a lot to unpack in there. Let me just start with, when we look at the data, we see that Freshpet today is outperforming the category by, call it, plus or minus about 10 points amongst every one of the income groups or age groups.

是的。裡面有很多東西要解開。首先，當我們查看數據時，我們會發現 Freshpet 目前的表現比同類產品高出約 10 個百分點，在各個收入組或年齡組中均如此。

So it speaks to the strength of the Freshpet proposition and its long-term value. When we look at the data, we don't see any change in consumers' interest or desire to have a pet or to increasingly feed their pet higher-quality pet food.

因此，這體現了 Freshpet 主張的優勢及其長期價值。當我們查看數據時，我們沒有看到消費者對養寵物或餵食寵物更高品質寵物食品的興趣或願望有任何變化。

What we're seeing is in this near term is we're really focusing on the uncertainty that consumers are seeing. The uncertainty is if you don't know what's going to be right down the road for you either from a job perspective, where you're going to be living and whatnot. All those things have put a little bit of a pause on the consumers' interest in trading up in their pet food or maybe getting a dog to replace the dog that might have passed away.

我們看到的是，在短期內，我們真正關注的是消費者所看到的不確定性。不確定性在於，如果你不知道你的未來會怎樣，無論是從工作的角度，還是從你將要住在哪裡等等。所有這些事情都讓消費者對升級寵物食品或購買新狗來替代已經去世的狗的興趣減弱。

It's most pronounced amongst the consumers who are most economically insecure. We've seen that in the data, the low-income part of our franchise is certainly feeling that. But it's across income groups and it's across the age groups.

這種現像在經濟上最缺乏安全感的消費者身上表現得最為明顯。我們從數據中看到，我們特許經營店的低收入部分確實感受到了這一點。但它是跨收入群體和跨年齡群體的。

But over the long haul, the data strongly suggests that the consumer desire for petting for higher quality pet food has not waned. So we just need to get our way through a tough economic environment for some period of time, we don't know how long it is but we don't see any change in the long-term potential based on everything we're seeing today.

但從長遠來看，數據強烈表明，消費者對更高品質寵物食品的喜愛並未減弱。因此，我們只需要在一段時間內度過艱難的經濟環境，我們不知道這段時間要多久，但從我們今天看到的一切來看，我們認為長期潛力不會發生任何變化。

Okay. And then just a follow-up. You talked a lot about changes or pulsing of advertising, but I know you've been reluctant to ever do any real trade promotions or discounting and stuff like that. Would that comment to the realm possibilities as we move through the year if things continue to get worse? Or you really just want to focus on turning up, turning down advertising to attract new consumers?

好的。然後只是後續行動。您談了很多關於廣告變​​更或脈衝式投放的事情，但我知道您一直不願意進行任何真正的交易促銷或折扣之類的活動。如果情況繼續惡化，這是否會對今年的情況發展產生影響？或者您實際上只是想專注於增加或減少廣告來吸引新消費者？

Hey, Bill. So I think Billy mentioned it in his prepared remarks, and I think we really want to reinforce this. We've never done any discounting -- as you know, we've never done any discounting. We don't do any couponing. We feel like the correct model for this business is basically to stay really focused on the exact strategy that we've had for a very long time.

嘿，比爾。所以我認為比利在他的準備好的發言中提到了這一點，我認為我們真的想強調這一點。我們從來沒有做過任何折扣——正如你所知，我們從來沒有做過任何折扣。我們不提供任何優惠券。我們覺得這項業務的正確模式基本上就是真正專注於我們長期以來所遵循的策略。

Now that being said, as mentioned, we want to modify the creative, we want to change the targeting. The other thing that we started to touch on, and we've been working on for quite a while is this area of affordability, where we want to take a handful of very, very targeted SKUs, create great opening price points, not only on some roles, but also on some bags.

既然已經提過，我們想要修改創意，我們想要改變目標。我們開始觸及的另一件事，也是我們一直在努力解決的問題，就是價格可負擔性這個領域，我們希望採用一些非常有針對性的 SKU，創造出極好的開盤價，不僅針對某些角色，也針對某些包袋。

In addition, you're seeing some multipacks that create real great value perception. In addition, we want to make sure we're available at certain retailers that are really value focused, right? So you start thinking about like where we are, whether it's Walmart, whether it's like a Costco, like we're at and other opportunities. All of those really create a bigger opportunity for us to be seen as more affordable and accessible.

此外，您還會看到一些能夠創造真正巨大價值感知的多件裝產品。此外，我們希望確保我們的產品能夠在某些真正注重價值的零售商處銷售，對嗎？所以你開始思考我們在哪裡，是否是沃爾瑪，是否像好市多，像我們所在的地方以及其他機會。所有這些確實為我們創造了更大的機會，讓我們看起來更實惠、更方便。

So that's the way we're thinking about executing the strategy. There won't be any coupon. There won't be any discounting, but we want to make sure that we have some really good opening price point products and SKUs to make sure we bring people into Fresh. Once they're into the portfolio, many of those have actually become MVPs over time.

這就是我們執行該戰略的想法。不會有任何優惠券。我們不會有任何折扣，但我們希望確保我們有一些真正好的開盤價產品和 SKU，以確保我們吸引人們購買 Fresh。一旦它們進入投資組合，隨著時間的推移，其中許多實際上已經成為 MVP。

We did this -- I don't know if you remember, a couple of years ago, we came out with a product called Complete Nutrition. We came up with a role. We sharpened our [1 pound] price point. We're able to do this while continuing to maintain gross margin growth over time and it worked incredibly well. We saw new consumers coming to the business. We'll be executing the same type of strategy in the back of this year.

我們這樣做了——我不知道您是否記得，幾年前，我們推出了一款名為「Complete Nutrition」的產品。我們想出了一個角色。我們提高了 [1 英鎊] 的價格點。我們能夠做到這一點，同時繼續保持毛利率長期成長，而且效果非常好。我們看到新的消費者加入我們的業務。我們將在今年稍後執行相同類型的策略。

And we will continue to lean into media. It's an incredibly important part of our growth strategy. We were up 24% in Q1. We will have a similar amount of spend about $40 million in Q2. So that's well over 30% growth in the quarter. So we will lean into that versus any trade down.

我們將繼續依靠媒體。這是我們成長策略中極為重要的一部分。我們第一季成長了 24%。我們在第二季的支出也將類似，約 4,000 萬美元。因此本季的成長率遠超過 30%。因此，我們會傾向於此，而不是任何貶值。

Brian Holland, D.A. Davidson.

布萊恩·霍蘭德（Brian Holland），地方檢察官戴維森。

Yeah. Good morning. So I guess, Bill, I think in the last response, Scott, maybe got to what I was going to lean into. But just just curious how that Complete Nutrition line has performed since its '23 launch. How generally aware are consumers of the value tier that Freshpet offers? And if not, how much of that is part of the revised media strategy?

是的。早安.所以我想，比爾，史考特，我想在最後的回應中，也許已經明白我想要表達的意思了。但我只是好奇自 23 年推出以來，Complete Nutrition 系列的表現如何。消費者對 Freshpet 提供的價值層級的了解程度如何？如果不是，那麼其中有多少是修改後的媒體策略的一部分？

So let me take them separately. So on the media piece, just to be really as simple about it as possible or clear about it. So on the media piece, there's two pieces. One of them is the creative piece and every time we've entered a new campaign with slightly different messaging, we've been able to unlock a new tranche of consumers.

因此，讓我分別討論它們。因此，在媒體方面，我們只是盡可能簡單或清楚地說明。關於媒體報道，有兩篇。其中之一就是創意，每當我們進行一項新的活動並傳遞稍微不同的訊息時，我們就能夠打開一批新的消費者。

We know we can do that, and we've done enough research where we know that there's another big tranche of consumers that we'll basically be able to attract. That work is going on as we speak. Then we're also modifying the media targeting. We're actually working where -- we're getting more and more targeted in some of the media. A lot of it is very broad, but a lot of it is getting more and more targeted, and that's helping us press into some of the e-commerce and direct-to-consumer pieces, too.

我們知道我們可以做到這一點，而且我們已經做了足夠的研究，我們知道我們基本上能夠吸引另一大批消費者。就在我們說話的同時，這項工作正在進行中。然後我們也修改了媒體定位。我們實際上正在努力——在某些媒體上，我們變得越來越有針對性。其中許多內容非常廣泛，但許多內容正變得越來越有針對性，這也有助於我們進入一些電子商務和直接面向消費者的領域。

On the affordability piece, it's interesting. If you look specifically at Complete Nutrition and you look at what happened with (inaudible) they're still sizable -- they're both in the single-digits in total pieces of business, but they really opened up a whole new group of consumers.

從可負擔性角度來看，這很有趣。如果你專門看一下 Complete Nutrition，看看 (聽不清楚) 發生了什麼，它們的規模仍然很大——它們的業務總量都是個位數，但它們確實開闢了一群全新的消費者。

So when we did the [1 pound] last time, we did the Complete Nutrition last time. We literally saw a pop over the next two quarters of growth of consumers coming back into the business. It worked incredibly well. We'll execute a very, very similar strategy over the course of this year.

因此，當我們上次做 [1 磅] 時，我們上次做了完全營養。我們確實看到，在接下來的兩個季度裡，消費者重返業務的勢頭強勁。效果非常好。我們將在今年實施非常相似的策略。

So it won't be incredibly sizable, but it's enough for people to come in and see it in the business. And we just need to get them started in Freshpet food. That's really what we need to do because once people are in the business, they typically are very, very happy with the results and the experience.

因此，它的規模不會非常大，但足以讓人們進來參觀它的業務。我們只需要讓他們開始食用 Frankeshpet 食品。這確實是我們需要做的，因為一旦人們進入這個行業，他們通常會對結果和體驗感到非常滿意。

They also recognize that it's not as expensive as they may be perceived it to be. That coupled with value packs, we feel really good that that's going to help significantly during the next, it could be 12, 18, 24, 36 months, whatever is going on from an economic standpoint. So we like where we're going with that. We're going to deploy the same strategy and feel confident around it.

他們也認識到它並不像他們想像的那麼昂貴。再加上超值套裝，我們感覺非常好，這將在未來 12、18、24、36 個月內提供顯著幫助，無論從經濟角度來看發生什麼。所以我們喜歡我們現在所做的事情。我們將部署相同的策略，並對此充滿信心。

And then just on the media, forgive me, I hopped on the call a bit late. So Billy touched on this in his prepared remarks. I apologize for being repetitive, but obviously, the media spend in December '24 didn't have its desired effect mindful of all the consumer backdrop, et cetera.

然後就媒體而言，請原諒我，我接電話有點晚了。比利在準備好的發言中談到了這一點。我很抱歉重複了這些話，但顯然，考慮到所有消費者背景等等，24 年 12 月的媒體支出並沒有達到預期的效果。

But you're talking about increasing the media spend even more obviously. So there's more targeted media spend within that. I'm just curious within the last three to six months, are there any green shoots to point to say, hey, we're targeted more here, this is the consumer that's responding to us.

但您顯然正在談論增加媒體支出。因此，其中的針對性媒體支出更多。我只是好奇，在過去的三到六個月內，是否有任何積極的跡象表明，我們在這裡更有針對性，這是對我們做出反應的消費者。

Yes. And I think I think you're on to it. Brian, that's exactly what we're doing. We're finding the places that are most productive, and we're starting to migrate dollars into those areas. It doesn't happen overnight. But we are pushing dollars into areas where we see better and better productivity from the media.

是的。我想你已經明白了。布萊恩，這正是我們正在做的事。我們正在尋找生產力最高的地方，並開始將資金轉移到這些地區。這不是一朝一夕就能實現的。但我們正將資金投入那些我們看到媒體生產力越來越好的領域。

I think that one of the things that I think we've always prided ourselves on is the amount of analytics that we do around the media, around the spending, how we keep track of it, where we see the performance. We're continuing to migrate those dollars and the places we're migrating those dollars to, the ROACE or the CAC, however we want to look at the numbers are strong.

我認為我們一直引以為豪的事情之一是我們在媒體、支出方面所做的分析數量、我們如何追蹤它以及我們在哪裡看到表現。我們將繼續轉移這些資金，並將這些資金轉移到 ROACE 或 CAC 等地方，無論如何，我們都希望看到這些數字是強勁的。

I think we're incredibly enthusiastic about that. What we don't know is you can't do like a complete exit stage. You can't move all of it to one very, very quickly. So you just start pushing into it and moving and migrating dollars over time, and you see where you can continue to get such great returns.

我認為我們對此非常熱情。我們不知道的是，你無法完成整個退出階段。你不可能非常非常快地將所有東西移到一個地方。因此，你只要開始努力，隨著時間的推移轉移和遷移美元，你就會看到你可以繼續獲得如此豐厚的回報。

But that's the exploration that the team is doing. I will say hats off to the marketing team, both on the creative piece and the targeting piece. There's plenty of work to do, but they've done a really nice job identifying the opportunities.

但這就是團隊正在進行的探索。我要向行銷團隊致敬，無論是在創意方面還是在目標定位上。還有很多工作要做，但他們在發現機會方面做得非常好。

Rupesh Parikh, Oppenheimer & Company.

魯佩什·帕里克 (Rupesh Parikh)，奧本海默公司。

Good morning and thanks for taking my question. So I guess I just want to go back to what you guys are seeing in the channel. So from an inventory perspective, how would you characterize the health of inventory? And then do you see any risk of inventory destocking as you go forward?

早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。所以我想我只是想回到你們在頻道上看到的內容。那麼從庫存角度來看，您如何描述庫存的健康狀況？那麼，您是否認為未來有庫存去庫存的風險？

Yeah. So we think the inventory across most of the channels is in good shape. The pet specialty channel obviously had some issues because of the distributor challenge that we had in February dragging into March. So we saw out of stocks in some portions of the pet specialty channel. Those have been largely corrected at this point.

是的。因此我們認為大多數渠道的庫存狀況良好。寵物專業通路顯然遇到了一些問題，因為我們在二月遇到的經銷商挑戰一直延續到三月。因此，我們看到寵物專賣通路的某些部分出現缺貨現象。目前這些問題已基本修正。

When then you get into the broader channels of grocery, mass, club and what not, our shipments to the customers are very strong with very high fill rates. So any issues that you see at retail are really a function of how well that retailer executes.

當你進入雜貨店、大眾商店、俱樂部等更廣泛的管道時，我們向客戶的發貨量非常強勁，填充率也很高。因此，您在零售中看到的任何問題實際上都取決於零售商的執行情況。

So if that retailer does a really good job of pulling the product through their warehouses and out of the back room and into the fridge and rotating the stock in the fridge, they should be in really good shape. If they have troubles with either their operations or their labor, then obviously, you'll see less good.

因此，如果零售商能夠很好地將產品從倉庫中取出，放入冰箱，並在冰箱中輪換庫存，那麼他們的狀況應該會很好。如果他們的營運或勞動力出現問題，那麼顯然，你會看到更少的好處。

And what we see when we look across the board is we see very good conditions in those retailers who are the best operators. So in terms of your part of the question about destocking, we did see a little destocking early in the quarter, but by the end of the quarter, we feel like it was fairly well balanced.

當我們全面觀察時，我們發現那些經營最好的零售商的狀況非常好。因此，就您提到的去庫存問題而言，我們在本季初確實看到了一些去庫存現象，但到本季末，我們感覺庫存已經相當平衡。

And we don't have -- in the world of Fresh products, there's not a lot of inventory that's kept. There's a little bit, but not a huge amount. So we don't expect that there would be any significant effect from destocking, but one never knows. But so far, we haven't seen anything significant.

而我們沒有——在新鮮產品領域，沒有太多的庫存。有一點，但不是很多。因此，我們並不認為去庫存會帶來任何顯著的效果，但誰也不知道。但到目前為止，我們還沒有看到任何重大進展。

We are shipping very close to consumption. So no destocking issues right now.

我們的出貨時間非常接近消費時間。因此目前不存在去庫存問題。

And Rupesh, you remember the days of $250 per store per week within a fridge. Today, our average is around $1,000 a store a week. So it's the same day code. We have a more efficient supply chain. There should not be really any changes. And we are seeing continued where we're hitting records versus prior periods.

魯佩什，你還記得以前每家商店每週花 250 美元買一台冰箱的日子嗎？如今，我們每家商店每週的平均收入約為 1,000 美元。所以這是同一天的程式碼。我們擁有更有效率的供應鏈。實際上不應該有任何變化。我們看到，與前幾個時期相比，我們繼續創下新高。

Great. And then maybe just my follow-up question. As you look at the various channels, anywhere where you saw maybe a bigger slowdown than expected? And are you seeing any shift to maybe more of the value channels in a bigger fashion versus recent quarters?

偉大的。然後也許只是我的後續問題。當您查看各個管道時，您是否發現哪裡的放緩幅度可能比預期的更大？與最近幾季相比，您是否看到有更大幅度的向價值管道的轉變？

Yeah. I mean, first of all, remember, pet specialty in the first quarter was particularly soft because of the distributor challenge that we face. So you should start with that. It's now getting back on its feet. When you look across retail, I think like everyone else, the value-oriented channels are winning, whether that would be club or the mass merchants, they seem to be winning the most and that's a function of the foot traffic that they're generating as opposed to necessarily what demand that we're creating.

是的。我的意思是，首先，請記住，由於我們面臨的經銷商挑戰，第一季的寵物專業業務特別疲軟。所以你應該從那裡開始。現在它正在恢復正常。當你觀察零售業時，我認為像其他人一樣，以價值為導向的管道正在獲勝，無論是俱樂部還是大眾商家，他們似乎都贏得了最多的勝利，這是他們產生的客流量的功能，而不是我們創造的需求的功能。

And being available there with the right products helps us really tackle this affordability opportunity. As we mainstream the business, right, we get into this early majority of consumers, there's going to be some consumers that are a little bit more occasional. When we're at the right channels where people are value-oriented, having that as part of our overall solution works really well for the business.

在那裡提供合適的產品有助於我們真正抓住這個可負擔性的機會。隨著我們業務的主流化，我們進入了早期大多數消費者，其中會有一些偶爾購買的消費者。當我們處於人們以價值為導向的正確管道時，將其作為我們整體解決方案的一部分對業務非常有利。

Robert Moskow, TD Cowen.

羅伯特·莫斯科（Robert Moskow），TD Cowen。

Hi. Thank you for the question. I wanted to know, Todd, what does the contingency plan look like if things do slow a little bit here. Let's say growth is at the low-end of the range or even a little bit below that. Given the long timeline or I think you said 18 to 24 months' time period for planning new production lines.

你好。謝謝你的提問。托德，我想知道，如果事情進展稍微慢下來，應急計劃是什麼樣的。假設成長率處於該範圍的低端，甚至略低於該範圍。考慮到很長的時間線，或者我想您說的是規劃新生產線的 18 到 24 個月的時間。

Does that mean that all these production lines that were in the plan still have to get executed in 2026, let's say? Or do you have flexibility to slow those expansions. And then the next question from there is what does that mean for free cash flow? What does it mean for EBITDA margins in a situation like that?

這是否意味著計劃中的所有這些生產線仍必須在 2026 年實施？或者您是否有靈活性來減緩這些擴張。那麼下一個問題是，這對自由現金流意味著什麼？在這種情況下，這對 EBITDA 利潤率意味著什麼？

Yeah. I mean, look, obviously, this is a scale business. So the faster our business is growing. It definitely helps from a margin perspective, both from gross margin from a G&A perspective. So it's always a good thing we're growing faster than a little bit slower. So that is a little bit of a headwind when things slow down.

是的。我的意思是，顯然，這是一項規模業務。因此我們的業務成長得越快。從利潤率、毛利率和一般及行政費用的角度來看，這肯定有幫助。因此，我們成長得越快，總比慢一點好。因此，當事情進展緩慢時，這就會變成一種阻力。

Having said that, we don't sit around and just let it happen. So we are addressing these issues as much as we possibly can. So from a capital perspective, you heard us, we took the guidance for the year from $250 million down to $225 million.

話雖如此，我們不會袖手旁觀，任由事情發生。因此我們正在盡可能地解決這些問題。因此，從資本角度來看，您聽到了，我們將今年的指導金額從 2.5 億美元下調至 2.25 億美元。

So we are shifting some things out, not dramatic at this point because we're going to wait and see to see how long this lasts, but we absolutely have flexibility to move the capital expenditures to the right. And then separately, from an ongoing cost perspective, we have brought new lines on both in Q4 and the back line in our Kitchen South facility in Q1.

因此，我們正在對一些事情進行調整，目前調整幅度並不大，因為我們將拭目以待，看看這種情況會持續多久，但我們絕對有靈活性，可以將資本支出向右移動。然後，從持續成本的角度來看，我們在第四季度推出了新的生產線，並在第一季在我們的 Kitchen South 工廠推出了後生產線。

And we can monitor and control how many of those lines are staffed. So we can reduce the cost as much as humanly possible to make sure we can continue to have strong gross margins. And as you heard us say, we still expect modest gross margin expansion for the year, which was the same guidance we gave coming into the year.

我們可以監控和控制這些線路的人員配備數量。因此，我們可以盡可能地降低成本，以確保我們能夠繼續保持強勁的毛利率。正如您所聽到的，我們仍然預計今年的毛利率將適度擴大，這與我們今年給出的指導相同。

So as you look into free cash flow, we still feel very good that we'll be able to manage being free cash flow positive in '26. So we think we'll still have great EBITDA margin and dollar expansion as we go into next year. And we can -- again, if this thing continues to slow, we can't get back over 20% in the next year, we will be able to continue to push out capital to the right.

因此，當您查看自由現金流時，我們仍然非常高興能夠在 26 年實現自由現金流為正。因此我們認為，進入明年，我們的 EBITDA 利潤率和美元擴張仍將很高。而且我們可以——再說一次，如果這種情況繼續放緩，我們明年就無法恢復到 20% 以上，我們將能夠繼續向右推資本。

We do have now 15 lines up and running. That gives us a ton of capacity as we bring new ships on and our OEs continue to expand. So we have well over $1.5 billion of capacity that's already sitting in place. Again, if things slow down, we can move that CapEx to the right, and that will assist obviously in being free cash flow positive.

我們現在有 15 條生產線投入運作。隨著我們引進新船並且我們的 OE 不斷擴大，這為我們提供了巨大的容量。因此，我們目前擁有的產能已遠遠超過 15 億美元。同樣，如果情況放緩，我們可以將資本支出向右移動，這顯然有助於實現自由現金流為正。

Okay. And then just a follow-up. On the media spend, I guess I was hoping you just put a finer point on it. Is media spending dollars going up versus your original plan? Or is it really just the same media dollar plan and you're going to use it in a more targeted fashion?

好的。然後只是後續行動。關於媒體支出，我希望您能對此提出更詳細的說明。媒體支出與原計劃相比是否有增加？或者它實際上只是相同的媒體資金計劃，而您將以更有針對性的方式使用它？

Yeah. It is going up a little bit. So we have added some dollars. But as Scott said, we're also continuing to not major shifts in our strategy, but we are moving some things to be more targeted, moving a little bit more to e-com, new creative coming out in the second half of the year. But yeah, there will be a slight increase in the number of dollars.

是的。它正在上漲一點點。所以我們增加了一些美元。但正如史考特所說，我們也不會在策略上做出重大改變，但我們會將一些事情變得更有針對性，並且更多地轉向電子商務，新的創意將在下半年推出。但是，美元數量確實會略有增加。

Jon Andersen, William Blair.

喬恩安德森、威廉布萊爾。

Hey. Good morning, everybody. Thanks for the question. I wanted to ask about distribution. You've mentioned it's going to be a normal steady year in terms of new distribution. I noticed that the store count was up about 5% in the first quarter, but your TDPs were up 15%.

嘿。大家早安。謝謝你的提問。我想問一下分佈狀況。您曾提到，就新分銷而言，今年將是正常穩定的一年。我注意到第一季商店數量增加了約 5%，但您的 TDP 卻增加了 15%。

So could you talk a little bit about your expectations for store count and cubic feet growth on a full year basis? And can you maintain TDP growth running at 2 or 3x that -- and the dynamic that's playing out there as you get significantly more TDP growth than store count growth? Thanks.

那麼，您能否談談對全年商店數量和立方英尺增長的預期？您能否維持 TDP 成長率達到 2 倍或 3 倍？當 TDP 成長率明顯高於商店數量成長率時，會出現怎樣的動態變化？謝謝。

Yeah. I'll start off. So I think I'm going to start off and Billy is going to -- so John, we actually had a good quarter from a fridge ad standpoint. We're on track to add another 100,000. We think of it as 100,000 cubic feet for the year is the way we think about it. So we're on track to add the 100,000 cubic feet. That's in both some new -- there's a fair amount of new.

是的。我先開始了。所以我想我要開始了，比利將會——約翰，從冰箱廣告的角度來看，我們實際上有一個不錯的季度。我們預計再增加 10 萬名。我們認為一年有 100,000 立方英尺，這就是我們的想法。因此，我們有望增加 100,000 立方英尺。這兩者都是新的——有相當多的新內容。

I mean, every year, we're continuing to be impressed that there is more new out there and really good substantial opportunities around the new. But the biggest piece is not only the second, but then also we previewed this at CAGNY, but these like bigger islands, which I think are really important because they demonstrate where everyone's thinking is on where this category is going.

我的意思是，每年我們都會對市場上出現更多新事物以及圍繞新事物的真正良好的實質機會感到印象深刻。但最大的部分不僅是第二個，而且我們在 CAGNY 也預覽了這一點，但這些就像更大的島嶼，我認為這非常重要，因為它們展示了每個人對這個類別的發展方向的看法。

And I think it's really, really clear for not only retailers but also consumers. This is a big, big piece of the future of the category. And they're putting more and more fridges in. You're going to see we have some islands in different places where we have three fridge units. You're going to start seeing bigger and bigger executions around that.

我認為，不僅零售商清楚這一點，消費者也清楚這一點。這是該類別未來的一個重要組成部分。他們正在安裝越來越多的冰箱。您會看到我們在不同的地方有一些島嶼，那裡有三個冰箱單元。你將會開始看到圍繞著這個主題的規模越來越大的處決。

I think this year is going to be more in the testing of those, and then next year is going to be more rollout around those. But I think that's really, really encouraging. And then as we do that, we're actually modifying the portfolio to make sure that we have the right products that are much more appropriate for different channels in those fridges. And so, we're really targeting consumers that are a little bit more specific to the channels that they're shopping in

我認為今年將對這些進行更多的測試，明年將對這些進行更多的推廣。但我覺得這真的非常令人鼓舞。然後，當我們這樣做時，我們實際上正在修改產品組合，以確保我們擁有更適合這些冰箱中不同管道的正確產品。因此，我們真正瞄準的是那些對購物管道有更明確要求的消費者

Yeah. Just I would add one piece to it, which is the big step-up in TDPs occurred last fall when Walmart put us in some of the second fridges that they own. We took two shelves those fridges and there was a huge step-up in TDPs.

是的。我只想補充一點，去年秋天，沃爾瑪將我們放入他們擁有的一些第二台冰箱中，TDP 大幅提升。我們為這些冰箱增加了兩層架子，TDP 有了很大的提升。

Obviously, any time Walmart does anything, it can have a huge impact in the TDPs where it doesn't materially change the number of stores that we're in. So in this case, if Walmart does something, you could see another big step-up in TDPs, but you're really dependent on that.

顯然，沃爾瑪的任何時候採取任何行動都會對 TDP 產生巨大影響，但這並不會實質地改變我們所在商店的數量。因此在這種情況下，如果沃爾瑪採取行動，您可能會看到 TDP 再次大幅提升，但您確實依賴於此。

Okay. Thanks. And a follow up. Obviously, you've talked a lot more in the last couple of years and even more recently about the focus on HIPPOHs and now MVPs. And I'm just curious, as those cohorts grow more rapidly than the total in terms of households, is that growth coming from an MVP or a HIPPOHs entering the franchise new? Or is it more of those adds coming from a non-MVP or non-HIPPOH evolving into one by increasing their buy rate.

好的。謝謝。並進行後續跟進。顯然，在過去的幾年裡，您談論了很多關於 HIPPOH 和現在的 MVP 的關注。我很好奇，由於這些群體的成長速度比家庭總數要快，這種成長是來自於 MVP 還是來自新進特許經營的 HIPPOH？或者更多的是那些來自非 MVP 或非 HIPPOH 的廣告透過提高購買率而演變為 MVP 或 HIPPOH。

And the reason I ask is I'm just trying to get an understanding of the dynamic of how a consumer enters that cohort and what the implications are perhaps for your composition of household penetration versus buy rate contributions to sales growth going forward? Thanks.

我之所以問這個問題，是想了解消費者如何進入這個群體的動態，以及這對家庭滲透率與購買率對未來銷售成長的貢獻可能會產生什麼影響？謝謝。

Hey, John. So I think it was at ICR in '23, we started talking about HIPPOHs and we started moving towards targeting those. And that meant not only the creative, but also some of the targeting and then also some of the products that were -- even in the products and the portfolio that we're doing.

嘿，約翰。所以我認為是在 23 年的 ICR 上，我們開始討論 HIPPOH，並開始著手針對這些 HIPPOH。這不僅意味著創意，還意味著一些目標，然後是一些產品——甚至包括我們正在做的產品和產品組合。

So we're continuing to refine that. We tightened the HIPPOHs just to MVP, there's just one more group lower. Those people represent a significant buy rate, right? We've shared it before. They represent about 70% of the business, $470 a year buy rate for those consumers.

因此我們正在繼續完善這一點。我們將 HIPPOH 縮小到 MVP，只剩下一組較低。這些人代表著相當可觀的購買率，對嗎？我們之前已經分享過。它們佔據了約 70% 的業務，這些消費者每年的購買價格為 470 美元。

And to your question, most of those people are new to the franchise. There are some that migrate that buy more and more every year, but the majority of those MVPs and HIPPOHs are people that are finally discovering and understanding that they should change their pet's diet to a fresher, less process, healthier, more natural food, they come in.

對於你的問題，大多數人都是這個系列的新人。有一些人每年都會購買越來越多的食物，但大多數 MVP 和 HIPPOH 都是最終發現並理解他們應該將寵物的飲食改為更新鮮、更少加工、更健康、更天然的食物的人。

Believe it or not, they start sometimes in the [1 pound] rolls or some of those more affordable products I mentioned earlier, and then they migrate into where they're all of a sudden spending more and more. And we're seeing great growth there. And when we see growth there, we feel really good because not only will it give us household growth, but it also gives us, obviously, the annual buy rate will move.

不管你信不信，他們一開始有時會購買 [1 磅] 的捲餅或我之前提到的一些更便宜的產品，然後他們就會突然開始花越來越多的錢。我們在那裡看到了巨大的成長。當我們看到那裡出現成長時，我們感到非常高興，因為它不僅會為我們帶來家庭成長，而且顯然還會為我們帶來年度購買率的變化。

And if I can take a step back on this, we want everybody because over time, lots and lots of consumers are going to move to this. But if you can have the core of your business built up people that are very, very dedicated to buying you day in and day out, spend a lot of money with you, that's a stronger company and a stronger brand and a stronger portfolio of products.

如果我可以退一步來說，我們希望每個人都能這樣做，因為隨著時間的推移，越來越多的消費者都會轉向這種方式。但是，如果你能將業務核心建立在那些非常非常熱衷於為你日復一日購買產品、為你花大量金錢的人身上，那麼你的公司、品牌和產品組合就會變得更加強大。

The thing I love also is from an e-com standpoint, what we're seeing is even higher by rate. We're seeing like up into the $700, $800 and even $1,000 a year of buy rate from those consumers. So as we move more money into those areas, we think that's going to help push the whole overall buy rate.

我喜歡的一點是，從電子商務的角度來看，我們看到的成長率甚至更高。我們看到這些消費者的年購買率已上升至 700 美元、800 美元甚至 1,000 美元。因此，隨著我們向這些領域投入更多資金，我們認為這將有助於提高整體購買率。

We're starting to see that. You can see it in the numbers now. We'll also be attracting more and more of these HIPPOHs. And the magic award in this, and it's a real great category for it is subscription, right? When people sign up for a subscription, whether it's on e-com, all other walmart.com or whether it's on a direct-to-consumer program, that's really significant for us. And those are the people that, again, we want to build our business and company around.

我們開始看到這一點。現在您可以透過數字看到這一點。我們也將吸引越來越多的 HIPPOH。其中的魔術獎是一個非常棒的類別，因為它是訂閱的，對吧？當人們註冊訂閱時，無論是在電子商務網站、所有其他 walmart.com 還是直接面向消費者的計劃中，這對我們來說都非常重要。我們希望圍繞著這些人來建立我們的業務和公司。

Michael Lavery, Piper Sandler.

麥可拉弗里、派珀桑德勒。

Thank you. Good morning. Just dovetailing off of that, the MVP consumer profile is, of course, great, and it's where you should focus, especially if you can bring those in new. But I'm getting the math at all right, then the buy rate on the other 85%, I think or so percent of households could sometimes be very low.

謝謝。早安.與此相吻合的是，MVP 消費者資料當然很棒，這是您應該關注的地方，特別是如果您可以引入新的資料。但我的計算完全正確，那麼其他 85% 左右的家庭的購買率有時可能會非常低。

You've touched on how some of the approaches to just get them started and I suppose it's not ever completely clear whether somebody when they're first in, the MVP ready to go or not. But what can you do to get buy rate up on the majority of your consumers?

您已經談到了一些讓他們開始的方法，我認為人們並不完全清楚當某人第一次進入時，MVP 是否準備好了。但是您可以做些什麼來提高大多數消費者的購買率呢？

It seems like an absolute dollar increase wouldn't have to be too significant to move the needle or is there an insight there you have of why they do or don't or can't or won't step up their buy rate. Is there a way to move the needle there? I get that the MVPs are hugely important, but how do you think about everybody else?

看起來美元的絕對成長並不需要太顯著就能產生影響，或者您是否了解他們為什麼會、不會、不能或不願意提高購買率。有沒有辦法把針頭移到那裡？我知道 MVP 非常重要，但你對其他人有什麼看法？

Yeah. So again, I would say the focus on the HIPPOHs and the MVPs is really, really important for now and into the future. I think that it is potentially a full errand to start trying to move a group of consumers that buy you very episodically during a slightly challenging or uncertain economic times. And that's where you get pulled into basically the coupon discounting and promotion game.

是的。所以，我再次強調，現在和將來關注 HIPPOH 和 MVP 真的非常重要。我認為，在經濟稍微困難或不確定的時期，開始嘗試打動一群偶爾購買你產品的消費者，這可能是一項艱鉅的任務。這就是您被捲入優惠券折扣和促銷遊戲的地方。

And if you look at what's going on in the category, it's amazing, the amount of discounting with several brands that we interact very, very highly with is really, really, I mean, it's significant. It's at something like almost historic levels. So I don't think we really want to necessarily focus on that game.

如果你看一下這個類別中發生的事情，你會驚訝地發現，與我們互動非常密切的幾個品牌的折扣幅度確實非常大。它幾乎達到了歷史最高水平。所以我不認為我們真的想把注意力集中在那場比賽上。

I think when things cool off and calm down, then people will naturally return, those episodic users will naturally return to our business. But if we can have 70% or 80% of our business on MVPs and HIPPOHs, that's really, I think, the best place and the best way to build our strategy.

我認為，當事情冷卻下來並平靜下來時，人們自然會回來，那些偶爾的用戶自然會回到我們的業務。但如果我們可以將 70% 或 80% 的業務集中在 MVP 和 HIPPOH 上，我認為這就是製定策略的最佳位置和最佳方式。

No. That makes sense. That's helpful. And just maybe if you touch on Sam's a little bit more. You mentioned you're in the first club store there. Is that just a test? Is it the beginning of more that are set to go? How do we think about how that unfolds?

不。這很有道理。這很有幫助。也許如果你再多談 Sam 的話。您提到您在那裡的第一傢俱樂部商店。那隻是測試嗎？這是否是更多即將發生的事件的開始？我們如何看待這情況的發生？

So you probably heard me over time, probably over the amount of time you've know me. I think I said everyone is coming. It's just a question of when. And I think this is one more illustration where, look, we were able to get into a test. We're excited about it. That test is going well. There's other tests that are going well.

所以你可能已經聽過我很多次了，可能已經認識我很多次了。我想我說過大家都來了。這只是時間問題。我認為這又是一個例證，看，我們能夠進行測試。我們對此感到很興奮。那次測試進展順利。其他測試進展順利。

I think over time, you're going to see like almost all retailers in the US have a bunch of Freshpet fridges. And I think not just one, but multiple. And I think that we're, again, it's this whole category trend that we've started and pushed. And I think that over time, I think you're going to see us everywhere. I can't tell you when, but I am confident that there's only one direction that Freshpet is going.

我認為隨著時間的推移，你會看到美國幾乎所有的零售商都擁有一堆 Freshpet 冰箱。我認為不只一個，而是多個。我認為，這是我們再次開創並推動的整個類別趨勢。我認為隨著時間的推移，你會在各個地方看到我們。我無法告訴你具體時間，但我確信 Freshpet 只會朝著一個方向發展。

Steve Powers, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的史蒂夫·鮑爾斯。

Great. Thanks. So I actually wanted to drill in a bit into your DTC expansion, which is something you previewed at CAGNY. I guess a couple of questions around that. First, I guess, is it your assessment that subscription service channel has held up better over the past few months?

偉大的。謝謝。所以我實際上想深入了解您的 DTC 擴展，這是您在 CAGNY 上預覽過的內容。我想圍繞這一點有幾個問題。首先，我想問一下，您是否認為過去幾個月訂閱服務管道表現較好？

And just what's the latest on how you see subscription demand interacting with consumption in your traditional channels and customers, number one. And then secondly, in terms of your own initiatives there, how impactful is that likely to be in fiscal '25? Is that more of a test and build? Or have you done the testing and really are more fully jumping in at this point?

首先，您如何看待訂閱需求與傳統通路和顧客的消費之間的互動？其次，就您自己的舉措而言，這對 25 財年可能會產生多大影響？這更像是一次測試和建造嗎？或者您已經完成測試並且確實在此時更加全面地投入其中？

Well, I like to always think about it is when you start from zero, you can have very, very, very fast growth. The reality is it's small, but it's really incredibly encouraging that we can have, I would say, we're not going to get into the exact details, but the CAC that we're having and then the retention that we're seeing so far is really encouraging. So that's on the D2C piece.

嗯，我總是喜歡想，當你從零開始時，你可以有非常非常快的成長。事實上，這個數字很小，但我們能夠取得這樣的成績確實令人鼓舞，我想說，我們不會深入討論具體細節，但我們目前所擁有的 CAC 以及所見的保留率確實令人鼓舞。這就是 D2C 部分的內容。

I think the bigger opportunity is the stuff that we've been talking about for a few years, and it's everything around e-com, which is the click and collect piece, where you can go to any one of our retailers, and you can pick it up. You can get it delivered to your home. And I think retailers are getting smarter and savvier around that piece of the business. That's a tremendous opportunity.

我認為更大的機會是我們幾年來一直在談論的東西，它與電子商務有關，即點擊和收集部分，你可以去我們的任何一家零售商那裡取貨。您可以將其送貨到家。我認為零售商在這一業務領域變得越來越聰明和精明。這是一個巨大的機會。

And the nice thing is it leverages our fridge network. So in reality, we've got 37,000 micro fulfillment centers across the US that we can get fresh food to someone's home very, very quickly. 27,000 stores, 37,000, 36,000 fridges that we can pull from across the US from an incredibly efficient supply chain and deliver to consumers.

其優點是它利用了我們的冰箱網路。因此實際上，我們在美國各地擁有 37,000 個微型配送中心，可以非常快速地將新鮮食品送到人們的家中。 27,000 家商店，37,000 台、36,000 台冰箱，我們可以透過極其高效的供應鏈從美國各地調取這些冰箱並配送給消費者。

So I think that's how we'd like to continue to see that build out. So direct-to-consumer is small, which held up very, very well. Performance is really strong. We're seeing a lot of -- we're very encouraged about the results there at this point.

所以我認為這就是我們希望繼續看到的發展。因此，直接面向消費者的規模很小，這一點非常非常好。性能確實很強大。我們看到了很多——我們對目前的結果感到非常鼓舞。

Okay. Great. And then just a real quick follow-up on your Sam's comment realizing that it's small. I mean, is anything embedded in the outlook for Sam's or to the extent that scales faster, would that be incremental?

好的。偉大的。然後對 Sam 的評論進行快速跟進，發現它很小。我的意思是，Sam 的前景中是否包含任何東西，或者在擴展速度更快的範圍內，是否是漸進的？

We gave you a range on the outlook. And so, clearly, if Sam's does more and does well, that would be towards the high end of the range. And if it doesn't do much, it would be towards the low end of the range.

我們為您提供了前景範圍。因此，顯然，如果 Sam's 做得更多並且表現更好，那麼它將達到該範圍的高端。如果它的作用不大，那麼它的作用就會處於範圍的低端。

Kaumil Gajrawala, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的 Kaumil Gajrawala。

Good morning. I guess a question on leverage and deleverage. When I see the sales outlook coming down by $54 million to $55 million, but EBITDA coming down, obviously, far less than that, while marketing is continuing to go up. Can you maybe just talk through some of the pieces in there on how you're managing not to have as much deleverage as one might guess.

早安.我想問的是有關槓桿和去槓桿的問題。當我看到銷售額預期下降 5,400 萬美元至 5,500 萬美元時，EBITDA 的降幅顯然遠低於這個數字，而行銷金額卻在持續上升。您能否簡單談談其中的一些內容，說明您是如何避免人們猜測的那麼多去槓桿的？

Yeah. So I mean, obviously, the guidance before was at least $210 million. So it wasn't a specific range. And we always try to put a plan at the start of the year that we believe is conservative and we can meet or exceed. Obviously, some things in the marketplace have changed.

是的。所以我的意思是，顯然之前的指導金額至少是 2.1 億美元。所以它不是一個特定的範圍。我們總是試圖在年初制定一個我們認為保守的、我們可以達到或超過的計劃。顯然，市場上的一些情況已經改變了。

But if you take the midpoint of our guidance right now, both from the top and bottom line, it assumes about 100 basis points of EBITDA margin expansion. So we're doing the best we possibly can right now to ensure we have both gross margin expansion and we have EBITDA margin expansion.

但如果你現在採用我們指導的中點，無論是從頂線還是底線來看，它都假設 EBITDA 利潤率擴大約 100 個基點。因此，我們現在正在盡最大努力確保毛利率和 EBITDA 利潤率都擴大。

And commodities again are basically flat for the year. We're not going to get all the leverage, unfortunately, from the labor and overhead fixed cost scale that we envisioned at the beginning of the year. But we are managing that as closely as possible by pulling back on how many lines we have staffed at any one time.

今年大宗商品價格基本持平。不幸的是，我們無法從年初設想的勞動力和間接固定成本規模中獲得所有的槓桿作用。但我們正在透過減少同時配備的人員數量來盡可能地管理這個問題。

So we do have the ability to do that. Again, it's not -- we'd rather the growth be higher, that would allow us to leverage that fixed overhead even more, but we are being very proactive to manage how many of our lines are running at one time.

所以我們確實有能力做到這一點。再說一次，事實並非如此——我們寧願成長更快，這將使我們能夠更多地利用固定開銷，但我們正非常積極地管理同時運行的生產線數量。

And the good news right now is the plants are running exceptionally well. We're thrilled with the performance in all three of our locations, especially (inaudible) now, which is really starting to perform very, very nicely. Still a long way to go, but they've shown some significant improvement as we've got into the start of 2025.

目前的好消息是工廠運作非常好。我們對這三個地點的表現感到非常興奮，尤其是（聽不清楚）現在，表現真的開始非常非常好。雖然還有很長的路要走，但隨著我們進入 2025 年，他們已經表現出了顯著的進步。

So we are going to manage the costs as closely as we can. As we talked about earlier, we will be spending more as a percent of sales on media and that will be more than offset by some G&A leverage. We'll control that as tightly as we can. But we feel good about the updated guidance that we've given.

因此我們將盡可能嚴格地控製成本。正如我們之前所討論的，我們將在媒體上花費更多銷售額的百分比，而這將被一些 G&A 槓桿所抵消。我們將盡可能嚴格地控制這一點。但我們對我們給予的更新指導感到滿意。

Okay. Got it. And then a question on competition. And I guess maybe put two questions on it. I guess the first is as the category slows, are you worried about increased activity in and things like that. But then also, there's what we can see and what we can see in terms of what we can see.

好的。知道了。然後是關於競爭的問題。我想也許可以提出兩個問題。我想首先是，隨著類別放緩，您是否擔心活動增加等類似情況。但同時，還有我們能看到的東西以及我們能看到的東西。

How are you feeling about others in the fresh frozen world like a Farmer's Dog, but then also what we can't on just with the DTC, just food for dogs sorts of things. What are you seeing in terms of the evolution there?

您對新鮮冷凍食品世界中的其他人有什麼看法，例如農夫的狗，但我們不能只使用 DTC，而只能使用狗糧之類的東西。您看到那裡發生了哪些演變？

So it is interesting because for quite a while, I'd say, on and off last year, we kept looking for promotional activity. We kept like a watching it. And there were some periods of it, but there wasn't a ton. And I think what's happened is a lot of the competitors in the category has started to look around and go, wow, we got to do something here.

這很有趣，因為我想說，去年很長一段時間裡，我們斷斷續續地一直在尋找促銷活動。我們一直看著它。確實有過一些時期，但不是很多。我認為現在發生的情況是，該類別中的許多競爭對手都開始環顧四周，然後說，哇，我們必須在這裡做點什麼。

And look, they pull the levers that they have. And I think that there is more discounting than that we have historically seen, especially on a few brands that we do interact with. It's just a reality.

瞧，他們拉動了手中的槓桿。我認為，折扣力道比以往更大，特別是對於我們確實有互動的幾個品牌。這只是一個現實。

The other good news, though, is that typically doesn't stay keep on going forever. There's an end point to it. There's a leveling off an an endpoint, and I think we're there. You can't have much more on some of these brands without the brand and also the margins. So I think that's where that is.

不過，另一個好消息是，這種情況通常不會永遠持續下去。一切都有一個終點。終點已經趨於平穩，我認為我們已經到達那裡了。如果沒有品牌和利潤，這些品牌就不可能有太大的發展。所以我認為情況就是這樣。

The stuff that we necessarily don't see, call it, other direct-to-consumer competitors. I think there's a couple of things. One of them is this is early -- we share the numbers. This is early on in the development of fresh and frozen food. We're still what's sold at retail. We're still 96%. I think we have that in the deck. So we're still the vast majority.

我們不一定能看到的東西，就叫它其他直接面對消費者的競爭對手。我認為有幾件事。其中之一是現在還為時過早——我們共享這些數字。這是新鮮和冷凍食品發展的早期階段。我們賣的還是零售商品。我們仍然有 96%。我想我們已經準備好了。所以我們仍然佔絕大多數。

We have good momentum on the pieces that we don't see and the pieces that we don't see, we think there is pretty darn good growth going on. And I think that just encourages us to believe that consumers are interested in moving in this direction, and we think we really have tremendous solutions for those consumers depending on what products they want and how they want to buy it.

我們在那些我們沒看到的部分上有著良好的勢頭，我們認為那些我們沒看到的部分正在發生相當不錯的增長。我認為這讓我們更加相信消費者有興趣朝這個方向發展，而且我們認為我們確實為這些消費者提供了很好的解決方案，這取決於他們想要什麼產品以及他們希望如何購買。

And I think that's underlies some of what we're talking about earlier with this move into e-com, this moving direct-to-consumer. Those are going to be important pieces of how we build the business out over time and then also getting into some new retailers, new and different retailers and having even more dominant visual and display in some of the retailers we're already in.

我認為這正是我們之前談論的進軍電子商務、直接面向消費者的舉措的基礎。這些將成為我們如何隨著時間的推移建立業務的重要組成部分，然後還可以進入一些新的零售商、新的和不同的零售商，並在我們已經進入的一些零售商中擁有更主導的視覺和展示。

And just back to the promotional question, I mean, fortunately, this is a category that historically does not have a high-level promotional activity. It's increased, that is for sure. People are -- there's more activity. The discounting of when they do promote has gone up a bit.

回到促銷問題，我的意思是，幸運的是，這個類別在歷史上沒有高水準的促銷活動。它增加了，這是肯定的。人們的活動更加活躍。他們促銷時的折扣增加。

The brands that are doing it the most, it's really not working for them. They continue to perform very, very poorly. And if you look at the overall data, the incrementality for the category when they promote is very, very low. So it's not working for our competitors.

那些這樣做最多的品牌其實並沒有起到什麼作用。他們的表現仍然非常非常糟糕。如果你看一下整體數據，你會發現他們促銷時該類別的增量非常非常低。所以它對我們的競爭對手不起作用。

As we spoke about earlier, we have no intention of doing it ourselves. We don't think it's a fantastic. It's a very reactive strategy that does not work terribly well in this category. And so, we don't think it's having much of an impact on our business.

正如我們之前所說，我們無意自己做這件事。我們不認為這是一件奇妙的事。這是一種非常被動的策略，但在此類別中效果並不好。因此，我們認為它不會對我們的業務產生太大影響。

I would add one other point to this, which is it's not the main part of our business, but in that small bucket of people who use us very infrequently, a number of those folks are switching between us and canned dog food as a mixture of top on a can on very occasional basis.

我想補充一點，這不是我們業務的主要部分，但在那些很少使用我們產品的小群體中，許多人只是偶爾在我們和罐裝狗糧之間轉換，將罐頭頂部的混合物作為食物。

And as the tariffs roll through the canned dog food business, the cost of canned all food is going to go up pretty considerably. So we don't know when those prices will go up and what the consumer specific reaction will be, but it certainly is a small tailwind against the tail of our volume base.

隨著關稅對罐裝狗糧產業的影響，所有罐裝食品的成本都將大幅上漲。因此，我們不知道這些價格何時會上漲，也不知道消費者的具體反應是什麼，但這肯定會對我們的銷售產生小小的推動作用。

Tom Palmer, Citigroup.

花旗集團的湯姆·帕爾默。

Look, I appreciate the economic environment has changed pretty abruptly here. And in the slide deck, though, there was the reiteration of the sales and margin targets for 2027. I know a lot can still change.

你看，我知道這裡的經濟環境已經發生了相當突然的變化。不過，在幻燈片中，重申了 2027 年的銷售和利潤目標。我知道很多事情還有可能改變。

I guess I was wondering how contingent those margin targets are to attaining that sales level or if there are other levers to maybe hit those margin targets even if sales do not reaccelerate to a level that might be implied by those targets? Thank you.

我想知道的是，這些利潤率目標與實現銷售水準的機率有多大，或者是否有其他手段可以實現這些利潤率目標，即使銷售額沒有重新加速到這些目標可能暗示的水平？謝謝。

Yeah. Look, as I said earlier, obviously, this is a scale business. And when we have faster growth than not, it definitely is a tailwind and makes hitting those margin targets easier. Having said that, we do have some wiggle room in those targets from a margin perspective that we set out at CAGNY back in February.

是的。你看，正如我之前所說的，顯然，這是一項規模業務。當我們的成長速度比沒有成長速度時，這無疑是一種順風，使我們更容易實現利潤目標。話雖如此，從我們二月在 CAGNY 制定的利潤率角度來看，我們在這些目標上確實有一些迴旋餘地。

We have a lot of tools whether it's new technology or the plants continuing to operate extremely efficiently that we feel very good about the gross margin target, and we will manage EBITDA margins appropriately. If the growth is not there, we will manage how many people we hirer in our business, and we'll slow that down a little bit.

我們有許多工具，無論是新技術還是持續高效運作的工廠，我們對毛利率目標感到非常滿意，我們將適當管理 EBITDA 利潤率。如果沒有成長，我們將控制我們業務中僱用的人數，並且我們將稍微放慢速度。

So we do have some tools to manage some of the margin and cost that we have out there. But we still feel very good about the margins that we set out. And then over the next several quarters, we'll come back and say, look, we feel good about the $1.8 billion. We're not going to come off of it this soon.

因此，我們確實有一些工具來管理現有的部分利潤和成本。但我們對於所設定的利潤率仍然感到非常滿意。然後在接下來的幾個季度裡，我們會回過頭來說，看，我們對這 18 億美元感到滿意。我們不會這麼快就放棄。

Obviously, if we continue to be in this environment for an extended period of time, we'll have to address the $1.8 billion in 2027. But for right now, we're not going to come off of that. But we do have levers from a margin perspective to allow us to hit those targets even without the $1.8 billion.

顯然，如果我們繼續長期處於這種環境中，我們將不得不在 2027 年解決 18 億美元的問題。但就目前而言，我們不會放棄這一點。但從利潤率的角度來看，即使沒有 18 億美元，我們也確實有能力實現這些目標。

And I don't want people to lose sight of the incredibly strong operating performance we have, which gives us the cushion that Todd is talking about. If we continue to have the incredibly strong operating performance and if demand is slower, it might give us an opportunity to roll out new technologies more quickly, which would help even further with the operating margin performance.

我不想讓人們忽視我們令人難以置信的強勁營運業績，這為我們提供了托德所說的緩衝。如果我們繼續保持強勁的營運業績，並且需求成長放緩，我們可能有機會更快推出新技術，這將進一步幫助提高營運利潤率。

So we feel like if there's softness on the topline, there could be strength on the operating margin or the gross margin and deliver against the margin targets regardless of what the net sales are. Obviously, we have to see how it goes, but we're feeling pretty bullish about the performance so far.

因此，我們認為，如果營收疲軟，那麼營業利潤率或毛利率就可能走強，無論淨銷售額是多少，都能實現利潤率目標。顯然，我們必須觀察其進展情況，但到目前為止，我們對其表現感到非常樂觀。

We have reached at the end of our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to management for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節已經結束。我想將會議交還給管理階層，請他們發表結束語。

Great. Thank you, everyone, for your attention and your interest. I'll leave you with this thought. It's from Nora Ephron. When your children are teenagers, it's important to have a dog so that someone in the house is happy to see you. To which I would add, reward that dog with Freshpet and your dog will forget about the teenagers too. Thank you very much.

偉大的。謝謝大家的關注與興趣。我會讓你記住這個想法。這是諾拉艾芙隆的作品。當你的孩子十幾歲時，養一隻狗是很重要的，這樣家裡的人就會很高興見到你。我想補充一點，用 Freshpet 獎勵那隻狗，你的狗也會忘記那些青少年。非常感謝。

This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect at this time and thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開連接並感謝您的參與。