Freshpet Inc (FRPT) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greetings. Welcome to Freshpet's third quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please note today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'll now turn the conference over to Rachel Ulsh, Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications. Thank you, Rachel. You may now begin.

    問候。歡迎參加 Freshpet 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。(操作員說明)請注意,今天的會議正在錄音。現在,我將把會議交給投資者關係和企業傳播副總裁雷切爾·烏爾什。謝謝你,瑞秋。現在你可以開始了。

  • Rachel Ulsh - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Rachel Ulsh - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Good morning, and welcome to Freshpet's third quarter 2025 earnings call and webcast. On today's call are Billy Cyr, Chief Executive Officer; and Ivan Garcia, Interim Chief Financial Officer. Nicki Baty, Chief Operating Officer, will also be available for Q&A.

    早安,歡迎參加 Freshpet 2025 年第三季財報電話會議和網路直播。今天參加電話會議的有執行長比利·西爾和臨時財務長伊凡·加西亞。營運長妮基·巴蒂也將出席問答環節。

  • Before we begin, please remember that during the course of this call, management may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These include statements related to our strategy to accelerate growth, progress and opportunities and capital efficiencies having an impact of new technology, capital spending, adequacy of capacity, expectations to be free cash flow positive, 2025 guidance and 2027 targets.

    在開始之前,請記住,在本次電話會議期間,管理層可能會根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的規定發表前瞻性聲明。這些聲明包括與我們加速成長、進步和機會以及資本效率相關的策略,這些策略受到新技術、資本支出、產能充足性、自由現金流為正的預期、2025 年指導和 2027 年目標的影響。

  • They involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from any forward-looking statements made today, including those associated with these statements and those discussed in our earnings press release and most recent filings with the SEC, including our 2024 annual report on Form 10-K, which are all available on our website.

    這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與今天作出的任何前瞻性聲明有重大差異,包括與這些聲明相關的風險和不確定性,以及我們在盈利新聞稿和最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件(包括我們的 2024 年 10-K 表格年度報告)中討論的風險和不確定性,所有這些文件都可以在我們的網站上找到。

  • Please note that on today's call, management will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures such as EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA, among others. While the company believes these non-GAAP financial measures provide useful information for investors, the presentation of this information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the financial information presented in accordance with GAAP.

    請注意,在今天的電話會議上,管理層將提及某些非GAAP財務指標,例如EBITDA和調整後EBITDA等。雖然公司認為這些非GAAP財務指標為投資者提供了有用的信息,但這些信息的列示不應被孤立地看待,也不應被視為替代按照GAAP列示的財務信息。

  • Please refer to today's press release for how management defines such non-GAAP measures, why management believes such non-GAAP measures are useful, a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable measures prepared in accordance with GAAP and limitations associated with those such non-GAAP measures.

    請參閱今天的新聞稿,以了解管理階層如何定義這些非GAAP指標,管理階層為何認為這些非GAAP指標有用,非GAAP財務指標與根據GAAP編製的最可比較指標的調節表,以及與這些非GAAP指標相關的限制。

  • Finally, the company has produced a presentation that contains many of the key metrics that will be discussed on this call. That presentation can be found on the company's investor website. Management's commentary will not specifically walk through the presentation on the call, rather, it is a summary of the results and guidance they will discuss today.

    最後,該公司製作了一份演示文稿,其中包含本次電話會議將討論的許多關鍵指標。此簡報可在公司投資者網站上找到。管理層的評論不會具體講解電話會議上的演示文稿,而是對他們今天將要討論的業績和展望進行總結。

  • With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Billy Cyr, Chief Executive Officer.

    接下來,我想把電話交給執行長比利·西爾。

  • Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

    Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Rachel, and good morning, everyone. The message I would like you to take away from today's call is that we are quickly adjusting to the new economic reality and remain one of the best-performing pet food businesses. We continue to outperform the US dog food category. We are building market share across every channel, and we are winning a disproportionate share of new pet parents.

    謝謝你,瑞秋,大家早安。我希望大家從今天的電話會議中記住的訊息是,我們正在迅速適應新的經濟形勢,並且仍然是業績最好的寵物食品企業之一。我們的業績持續優於美國狗糧市場。我們正在各個管道建立市場份額,並且贏得了不成比例的新寵物主人的青睞。

  • We also continue to deliver strong operating performance despite the slowdown in volume growth. Further, we have maintained financial discipline and appropriately manage our capital spending to match our growth and that, in combination with strong operating performance, has enabled us to achieve positive free cash flow in the third quarter and will enable us to become free cash flow positive for the full year, which is one year ahead of our original 2026 target.

    儘管銷售成長放緩,但我們依然保持了強勁的營運表現。此外,我們保持了財務紀律,並適當管理了資本支出以匹配我們的成長,再加上強勁的經營業績,使我們在第三季度實現了正的自由現金流,並將使我們全年實現正的自由現金流,比我們原定的 2026 年目標提前了一年。

  • Taking a step back, the deceleration in sales growth this year was unprecedented. We clearly started this year expecting to operate in a much different environment and have had to shift our strategy to address these challenging and dynamic times. While we can't control consumer sentiment, we can adapt our consumer proposition and make sure we are best positioned to increase household penetration by winning both new and existing pet parents while also improving our profitability and free cash flow generation.

    從整體來看,今年銷售成長放緩的程度是前所未有的。今年年初,我們顯然預期會在截然不同的環境中運營,因此不得不調整策略以應對這些充滿挑戰和瞬息萬變的時期。雖然我們無法控制消費者的情緒,但我們可以調整我們的消費者主張,確保我們能夠更好地贏得新老寵物主人,從而提高家庭滲透率,同時提高我們的盈利能力和自由現金流。

  • We believe we are taking all of the necessary steps to stabilize and then reaccelerate our top line growth by continuing to focus on areas that are within our control. To address the consumer environment, we have adjusted our media and go-to-market strategy to both reach and appeal to more households while super-serving our MVPs, who account for 70% of our volume.

    我們相信,我們正在採取一切必要措施來穩定並重新加速我們的營收成長,方法是繼續專注於我們可控的領域。為了因應消費者環境的變化,我們調整了媒體和市場推廣策略,以覆蓋和吸引更多家庭,同時更好地服務我們的MVP客戶,他們占我們銷售的70%。

  • This includes starting to test new digital touch points and expanding our focus and resources on e-commerce channels, including DTC. The transition to this updated and improved commercial framework began earlier this year, but it is an evolution, so we will gradually increase the investment behind it as we get increased evidence of its effectiveness.

    這包括開始測試新的數位觸點,並將我們的關注點和資源擴展到電子商務管道,包括 DTC。向這項更新改進的商業框架的過渡始於今年年初,但這畢竟是一個發展過程,因此隨著我們獲得更多證明其有效性的證據,我們將逐步增加對其的投資。

  • We are also doubling down on our three key strategies designed to expand the appeal of Freshpet, particularly amongst our MVPs. Those strategies are: first, best food. We believe that Freshpet's highly differentiated product offers an enhanced experience for our consumers that we need to highlight in order to expand our franchise.

    我們也在加倍投入到旨在擴大 Freshpet 吸引力的三大關鍵策略中,尤其是在我們的 MVP 用戶群中。這些策略是:首先,最好的食物。我們相信,Freshpet 高度差異化的產品能夠為我們的消費者提供更優質的體驗,我們需要突出這一點以擴大我們的特許經營規模。

  • We launched a new media campaign at the end of August and early September, showing the lengths we go to produce the best food. And at the end of October, launched another new ad showcasing our ingredients. The new ads are much more focused on the benefits of fresh food than our previous creative and early in-market data is encouraging.

    我們在八月底九月初發起了一項新的媒體宣傳活動,展示了我們為生產最好的食品所付出的努力。10 月底,我們推出了另一則新廣告,展示了我們的原料。與我們之前的創意相比,新的廣告更加重視新鮮食品的好處,而且早期的市場數據也令人鼓舞。

  • Second, strong value proposition. We are operating in an environment where economic uncertainty has led to less trade up than in the past. To address this, we have now launched our new complete nutrition bag product in select retailers to help encourage trial as well as new multi packs and bundles, both online and in-store for the more value-focused consumer. We have also sharpened our price point on our 1-pound chicken roll, which we believe will help drive more trial and increase household penetration.

    其次,具有強大的價值主張。我們目前所處的經濟環境充滿不確定性,導致向上交易的意願不如以往強烈。為了解決這個問題,我們現在已在部分零售商處推出了全新的全營養袋產品,以鼓勵消費者嘗試,同時還推出了新的多包裝和組合裝,在線上和線下均有銷售,以滿足更注重性價比的消費者的需求。我們還提高了 1 磅雞肉捲的價格,我們相信這將有助於推動更多嘗試並提高家庭滲透率。

  • Third, improved accessibility. We continue to make good progress on the visibility and the availability of Freshpet, one of our greatest competitive advantages. You may recall that we showed a rendering of a fridge island back in February at the CAGNY conference, which is a new concept with a mix of both open air and closed door fridges.

    第三,提高可近性。我們在提高 Freshpet 的知名度和可及性方面持續取得良好進展,這是我們最大的競爭優勢之一。您可能還記得,我們​​在二月的 CAGNY 會議上展示了一個冰箱島的效果圖,這是一個結合了開放式和封閉式冰箱的新概念。

  • It is designed to change the way the consumer shops the fresh pet food category, changing it from a search for a packaged good in an aisle to grocery shopping for your pet. We believe this is the next big unlock in our retail visibility and availability strategy and will create increased awareness of the brand and greater trial of our wide range of items.

    它旨在改變消費者購買新鮮寵物食品的方式,將購物體驗從在貨架上尋找包裝好的商品轉變為為寵物購買雜貨。我們相信這將是我們零售可見度和可近性策略的下一個重大突破,並將提高品牌知名度,並讓更多人嘗試我們種類繁多的產品。

  • Last month, we started testing new fridge islands in the first 16 stores of a large mass retailer, and we've included a picture in our earnings presentation. It is still very early days, but we believe this expansion demonstrates how leading retailers view Freshpet as the future of the dog food category because of its enormous growth potential.

    上個月,我們開始在一家大型零售商的前 16 家門市測試新型冰箱島,並在收益報告中附上了一張照片。雖然現在還處於非常早期的階段,但我們相信,此次擴張表明,領先的零售商將 Freshpet 視為狗糧品類的未來,因為它具有巨大的成長潛力。

  • We've also further increased distribution in a large club customer. We are in our first store in this retailer in April, 125 stores at the end of July and are now in 590 stores as of the end of September. The sales are still ramping up. However, we are very encouraged by the launch so far and the future potential. At another club retailer, we've also expanded our range to have a third SKU in select stores and have also just started a small test in a rural lifestyle retailer.

    我們也進一步擴大了在一家大型俱樂部客戶的分銷範圍。我們於 4 月首次入駐該零售商的門市,7 月底進入 125 家門市,截至 9 月底,已進入 590 家門市。銷售額仍在持續成長。然而,我們對目前的發布情況和未來潛力感到非常鼓舞。在另一傢俱樂部零售商處,我們也擴大了產品範圍,在部分門市推出了第三個 SKU,並且剛剛在鄉村生活方式零售商處開始了小規模測試。

  • As we look to the next leg of distribution, we expect the majority of growth to come from stores where we have or can have second and third fridges or outside of aisle placements like fridge islands as well as the online channel. We plan to leverage our retail strength where we are the clear category growth driver, and, at the same time, we are really excited about our continued growth of e-commerce.

    展望下一階段的分銷,我們預計大部分增長將來自我們擁有或可以擁有第二台和第三台冰箱的商店,或者像冰箱島這樣的過道外擺放位置,以及在線渠道。我們計劃利用我們在零售領域的優勢,因為我們是該品類成長的明顯驅動力,同時,我們對電子商務的持續成長感到非常興奮。

  • We had another strong quarter of growth in digital orders, up 45%, and we recognize we are significantly underpenetrated in the e-commerce channel, including DTC. We are keenly focused on increasing our presence to capture the omnichannel and online customers and plan for this to be a more meaningful part of the business as we head into 2026.

    我們的數位訂單又迎來了一個強勁的季度成長,增幅達 45%,但我們也意​​識到,我們在電子商務通路(包括 DTC)的滲透率仍然很低。我們正著力擴大市場份額,以吸引全通路和線上客戶,並計劃在 2026 年使之成為業務中更重要的組成部分。

  • In total, we believe these strategies will enable us to reaccelerate our growth. Each of these strategies drive actions that we can control and leverage our unique capabilities and proposition. That will ensure that we will continue to outperform the category and drive the transition of the dog food business to fresh food regardless of the macro environment.

    總而言之,我們相信這些策略將使我們能夠重新加速成長。這些策略中的每一項都能推動我們可控的行動,並讓我們能夠利用自身獨特的能力和優勢。這將確保我們能夠繼續超越同類產品,並推動狗糧產業向新鮮食品轉型,而不受宏觀環境的影響。

  • Our efforts to adapt to the current environment are not limited to driving the top line. We are also focused on driving operational efficiency through a variety of approaches. First, via our new technology. The current demand environment means that our team has more available line time to lean in and test new technologies and formulations.

    我們為適應當前環境所做的努力不僅限於提高營收。我們也致力於透過各種方式提高營運效率。首先,透過我們的新技術。當前市場需求環境意味著我們的團隊有更多空閒時間投入新技術和新配方的測試。

  • We have been working on new bag technology since 2019 that is designed to produce significantly better products at a lower cost. It does this by increasing throughput, improving yields and reducing the amount of product that requires secondary processing. We expect this to result in increased bagged product margins and decrease the margin gap between bags and roll products. Our goal is to deliver both meaningful product improvements and significantly improved economics. It can also unlock new innovation capabilities.

    自 2019 年以來,我們一直在研究新的包裝袋技術,旨在以更低的成本生產出品質更好的產品。它透過提高產量、提高產率和減少需要二次加工的產品量來實現這一目標。我們預計這將提高袋裝產品的利潤率,並縮小袋裝產品和卷裝產品之間的利潤差距。我們的目標是在實現有意義的產品改進的同時,並顯著提高經濟效益。它還可以釋放新的創新能力。

  • The first new production scale line that uses this new technology is now fully installed and in the final stages of commissioning. We expect to produce saleable products on that line in Q4, and we are very excited by what we have seen so far.

    採用這項新技術的第一條新型生產線現已全部安裝完畢,正處於調試的最後階段。我們預計該生產線將在第四季度生產出可銷售的產品,我們對目前為止所看到的成果感到非常興奮。

  • Second, we are also taking a pragmatic approach to managing our capacity. It is not clear how long this period of consumer uncertainty will last so we are using a variety of approaches to ensure that we have adequate capacity to meet our growing demand, but also don't get too far ahead of ourselves on capital spending and staffing. Fortunately, our facilities are running very well now, and that has provided us with free capacity.

    其次,我們在管理產能方面也採取了務實的態度。目前尚不清楚消費者的這種不確定時期會持續多久,因此我們正在採取各種方法來確保我們有足夠的產能來滿足不斷增長的需求,但同時也不會在資本支出和人員配備方面走得太遠。幸運的是,我們的設施目前運作良好,這為我們提供了空閒產能。

  • In conjunction with further operating improvements that we expect to deliver, we expect to have adequate capacity to support our growth for a while. We are a much more stable business than we were three or four years ago. And when you couple that with a new technology, it enables us to reduce our capital spending this year and next year.

    隨著我們預期將實現的進一步營運改進,我們預計將擁有足夠的產能來支持我們的成長一段時間。我們現在的業務比三、四年前穩定得多。再加上一項新技術,就能讓我們在今年和明年減少資本支出。

  • We do not believe that this reduction in CapEx will limit our ability to grow over the next two to three years as we already have $1.5 billion of installed capacity available to us if the growth reaccelerates and can add staffing as needed.

    我們認為,此資本支出減少不會限制我們在未來兩到三年內的成長能力,因為如果成長再次加速,我們已經有 15 億美元的已安裝產能可供使用,並且可以根據需要增加人員配備。

  • Now I'll provide some highlights from the third quarter. Our third quarter net sales were $288.8 million, up 14% year-over-year, primarily driven by volume. Adjusted gross margin in the third quarter was 46.0% compared to 46.5% in the prior year period, and adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter was $54.6 million, up approximately $11 million or 25% year-over-year.

    現在我將介紹第三季的一些亮點。第三季淨銷售額為 2.888 億美元,年增 14%,主要得益於銷售成長。第三季調整後毛利率為 46.0%,而上年同期為 46.5%;第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 5,460 萬美元,較去年同期成長約 1,100 萬美元,增幅達 25%。

  • From a category perspective, we continue to be the number 1 dog food brand in US food with a 95% market share within the gently cooked fresh frozen branded dog food segment in Nielsen brick-and-mortar customers, defined as xAOC plus pet.

    從品類角度來看,我們仍然是美國食品中排名第一的狗糧品牌,在尼爾森實體店客戶(定義為 xAOC 加寵物)的溫和烹製新鮮冷凍品牌狗糧細分市場中,我們擁有 95% 的市場份額。

  • We compete in the nearly $56 billion US pet food category per Nielsen omnichannel data for the 52 weeks ended September 27, 2025, and within the nearly $38 billion US dog food and treats segment, we have increased our market share to 3.9%.

    根據尼爾森全通路數據,截至 2025 年 9 月 27 日的 52 週內,我們在美國價值近 560 億美元的寵物食品市場競爭;在價值近 380 億美元的美國狗糧和零食市場中,我們的市場份額已增至 3.9%。

  • From a retail perspective, competitive entrants have not slowed our expansion to date. In fact, we believe that new competition will ultimately grow the category as we have seen many times before in other categories, such as Greek yogurt and coffee. Freshpet products are now in 29,745 stores, 24% of which have multiple fridges in the US.

    從零售角度來看,競爭對手的出現至今尚未減緩我們的擴張步伐。事實上,我們相信新的競爭最終會促進該品類的發展,就像我們之前在其他品類(例如希臘優格和咖啡)中多次看到的那樣。Freshpet 產品目前在美國 29,745 家商店有售,其中 24% 的商店擁有多台冰箱。

  • Looking ahead, we expect this percentage to increase as we add more fridges to the highest velocity stores. We ended the third quarter with 38,778 fridges or nearly 2.1 million cubic feet of retail space with an average of 20.1 SKUs in distribution.

    展望未來,隨著我們在銷量最高的門市增加更多冰箱,我們預計這一比例還會上升。第三季末,我們有 38,778 台冰箱,零售空間近 210 萬立方英尺,平均分銷 20.1 個 SKU。

  • Our percent ACV in grocery where were the dog food market leader was 79% at quarter end and ex-AOC only 68%. From a household penetration and buy rate standpoint, we remain one of the only dog food companies that consistently grows both.

    我們在食品雜貨領域的 ACV 百分比(狗糧市場領導者)在季度末為 79%,而剔除 AOC 後僅為 68%。從家庭滲透率和購買率的角度來看,我們仍然是為數不多的兩家持續成長的狗糧公司之一。

  • Our household penetration as of September 28 was 14.8 million households, up 10% year-over-year and total buy rate was $111, up 4% year-over-year. MVPs, which are our super heavy and ultra-heavy users are continuing to grow faster with a total of 2.3 million of those households up 15% year-over-year.

    截至 9 月 28 日,我們的家庭滲透率達到 1,480 萬戶,年增 10%;總購買率為 111 美元,年增 4%。MVP(即我們的超級重度和超重度用戶)持續快速成長,這些家庭總數達到 230 萬戶,較去年同期成長 15%。

  • MVPs represented 70% of our sales in the latest 12 months with an average buy rate of $490. We are still growing households across every age and income group and gaining market share. The dog food category is declining, but fresh head continues to be a clear winner. We are seeing that we are attracting a large portion of new pet parents, which is very encouraging.

    在過去的 12 個月中,MVP 產品占我們銷售額的 70%,平均購買價格為 490 美元。我們仍在各個年齡層和收入群體中發展家庭用戶,並不斷擴大市場份額。狗糧市場整體下滑,但鮮食狗糧依然是明顯的贏家。我們發現,我們吸引了大量的新寵物主人,這非常令人鼓舞。

  • Turning to capacity. We feel good about our manufacturing footprint today. And this continues to be the most profitable Freshpet kitchen and accounts for approximately 38% of sales volume. Our overall operating effectiveness, or OEE, our measure of operating efficiency continues to improve and the new technology line in Bethlehem is expected to produce saleable product later this quarter, as I mentioned a few minutes ago. This will be our 16th line across the network, and we are very excited by its potential.

    接近滿載運轉。我們對目前的生產佈局感到滿意。而且,這家廚房仍然是 Freshpet 最賺錢的廚房,約佔銷售額的 38%。正如我幾分鐘前提到的,我們的整體營運效率(OEE,即衡量營運效率的指標)持續提高,位於伯利恆的新技術生產線預計將在本季稍後生產出可銷售的產品。這將是我們遍布整個網路的第 16 條線路,我們對其潛力感到非常興奮。

  • The technology to make fresh pet food is still very nascent, and we constantly try to push the limits and come up with ways to drive greater returns. Next spring, we also plan to retrofit another bag line in our Bethlehem kitchen with the light version of the new technology that could prove to deliver a meaningful portion of the same benefits of the full technology line with minimal line downtime to install the new technology and minimal CapEx.

    新鮮寵物食品的生產技術仍處於起步階段,我們不斷嘗試突破極限,尋找提高效益的方法。明年春天,我們還計劃在伯利恆的廚房對另一條包裝生產線進行改造,採用新技術的輕量級版,該技術有望在安裝新技術所需的停機時間最短、資本支出最少的情況下,提供與完整技術生產線相同優勢的相當一部分。

  • Our capital efficiency framework is centered around three key areas: first, getting more volume out of existing lines primarily through OE improvements; second, getting more out of existing sites where -- whether that be finding ways to add more lines on our campuses or network optimization; and third, developing and implementing new technologies. We've made tremendous progress with this framework and believe there is still a significant opportunity to create incremental shareholder value.

    我們的資本效率架構圍繞著三個關鍵領域:首先,透過提高營運效率 (OE) 來提高現有線路的容量;其次,透過尋找在園區內增加更多線路或優化網路的方式來提高現有站點的利用率;第三,開發和實施新技術。我們利用這個框架取得了巨大的進展,並相信仍有很大的機會創造更多股東價值。

  • Now turning to our outlook for the remainder of the year. We are currently tracking to the lower end of our previous net sales and adjusted EBITDA guidance ranges, so we now expect net sales growth to be approximately 13% for the year and adjusted EBITDA to be between $190 million and $195 million. We are updating our CapEx guidance to approximately $140 million as we were able to shift more projects out.

    現在讓我們展望一下今年剩餘時間的情況。我們目前的業績正朝著先前淨銷售額和調整後 EBITDA 預期範圍的下限發展,因此我們現在預計全年淨銷售額成長約為 13%,調整後 EBITDA 將在 1.9 億美元至 1.95 億美元之間。由於我們能夠將更多項目延期,我們將資本支出預期更新至約 1.4 億美元。

  • The silver lining of the slower-than-expected sales growth this year is it has now positioned us to achieve positive free cash flow a year earlier than anticipated, a significant company milestone. Ivan, our interim CFO, will walk through more details of our 2025 guidance in a few minutes.

    雖然今年的銷售成長速度低於預期,但這也帶來了一線希望:我們有望比預期提前一年實現正自由現金流,這對公司來說是一個重要的里程碑。我們的臨時財務長伊凡將在幾分鐘後詳細介紹我們 2025 年的業績指引。

  • In regard to our fiscal 2027 targets, we remain confident in our ability to achieve 48% adjusted gross margin and 22% adjusted EBITDA margin in 2027 if our sales volume growth is at least low teens. If we were to grow high single digits, we believe we can still achieve an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 20%.

    就我們 2027 財年的目標而言,如果我們的銷售量成長至少達到 10% 左右,我們仍有信心在 2027 年實現 48% 的調整後毛利率和 22% 的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率。如果我們實現高個位數成長,我們相信我們仍然可以實現約 20% 的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率。

  • In summary, we have taken actions in strategic areas to focus on what we can control and make sure we continue to deliver category-leading growth despite the current category softness and competitive entrants. Dog food has historically been one of the best, most recession-resistant categories, and we believe we are best positioned to capture the future growth of the category.

    總而言之,我們已在策略領域採取行動,專注於我們能夠控制的事情,並確保儘管當前市場疲軟且有競爭對手進入,我們仍能繼續保持行業領先的成長。從歷史上看,狗糧一直是表現最好、最能抵禦經濟衰退的品類之一,我們相信我們最有能力抓住該品類未來的成長機會。

  • We expect to continue to build market share, grow household penetration and win a disproportionate share of new pet parents to ultimately capture the lion's share of profit in the category 2. Before I hand it to Ivan, I want to address the ongoing CFO search. We've hired an independent executive search firm, and we have a very long list of very exciting candidates.

    我們期望繼續擴大市場份額,提高家庭滲透率,贏得不成比例的新寵物主人,最終在第二類產品中佔據大部分利潤。在把這個任務交給伊凡之前,我想先談談正在進行的財務長招募工作。我們聘請了一家獨立的獵人頭公司,目前我們掌握了非常長的優秀候選人名單。

  • We hope to select the next CFO quickly, but we'll take our time to find the right person. In the interim, we are confident in Ivan and his team's capabilities and believe we can still deliver the necessary business results until we find a permanent successor.

    我們希望盡快選出下一任財務官,但我們會花時間找到合適的人選。在此期間,我們對伊凡及其團隊的能力充滿信心,並相信在我們找到正式繼任者之前,我們仍然可以取得必要的業務成果。

  • Ivan has been with Freshpet for 11 years, having joined the company shortly before the company went public in 2014 from KPMG. He has been involved in every aspect of our financial operations since then, including leading accounting, financial planning, systems development and our data analytics operation. Ivan is a trusted member of our team, and his move into the interim CFO role has been seamless.

    Ivan 在 Freshpet 工作了 11 年,他在 2014 年公司上市前不久從畢馬威會計師事務所加入該公司。從那時起,他參與了我們財務運營的各個方面,包括領導會計、財務規劃、系統開發和數據分析營運。伊凡是我們團隊中值得信賴的成員,他擔任臨時財務長一職的過程非常順利。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Ivan to walk through more details of our financial results. Ivan?

    接下來,我將把發言權交給伊万,讓他詳細介紹我們的財務表現。伊万?

  • Ivan Garcia - Interim Chief Financial Officer

    Ivan Garcia - Interim Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Billy, and good morning, everyone. The highlight of the third quarter results is that we demonstrated our ability to deliver category-leading growth while also achieving positive free cash flow. Now let me provide more details on our financials and updated guidance.

    謝謝你,比利,大家早安。第三季業績的亮點在於,我們證明了我們有能力在實現行業領先成長的同時,也實現了正的自由現金流。現在讓我提供更多關於我們財務狀況和最新指引的細節。

  • Third quarter net sales were $288.8 million, up 14% year-over-year. Volume contributed to 12.9% growth, and we had positive price/mix of 1.1%, primarily driven by mix. We saw broad-based consumption growth across channels.

    第三季淨銷售額為 2.888 億美元,年增 14%。銷量貢獻了 12.9% 的成長,價格/組合實現了 1.1% 的正成長,這主要得益於組合的最佳化。我們看到各通路的消費均實現了全面成長。

  • For Nielsen-measured dollars, we saw 10% growth in xAOC, 10% in total US pet retail plus, 8% in US food and 2% growth in pet specialty. As a reminder, the third quarter benefited by about 1 point of growth from a slight shift in timing of orders from the end of June to early July, which we shared on the Q2 call.

    根據尼爾森的統計,xAOC 成長了 10%,美國寵物零售總額成長了 10%,美國食品成長了 8%,寵物專賣成長了 2%。需要提醒的是,第三季受益於訂單時間從 6 月底到 7 月初的輕微變化,增長了約 1 個百分點,我們在第二季電話會議上分享了這一情況。

  • We also expanded into most of our major club retailer stores in the third quarter and initial pipeline shipments helped boost our shippings growth versus last year. When you net all of that out, we believe that consumption growth in the quarter was approximately 12%.

    第三季度,我們也拓展了大部分主要俱樂部零售店的業務,初步的管道出貨幫助提升了我們與去年相比的出貨量成長。綜合所有因素,我們認為本季消費成長約為 12%。

  • Third quarter adjusted gross margin was 46% compared to 46.5% in the prior year period. The 50-basis-point decrease was driven by reduced leverage on plant expenses, partially offset by lower input costs. The deleveraging of plant costs are a result of ending the quarter with lower inventory.

    第三季調整後毛利率為 46%,去年同期為 46.5%。50 個基點的降幅是由於工廠支出槓桿率降低所致,但部分被投入成本降低所抵銷。工廠成本的降低是由於季度末庫存減少所致。

  • Third quarter adjusted SG&A was 27.1% of net sales compared to 29.3% in the prior year period. This decrease was primarily due to a lower variable compensation accrual, partially offset by increased media as a percentage of net sales.

    第三季調整後的銷售、一般及行政費用佔淨銷售額的 27.1%,而上年同期為 29.3%。這一下降主要是由於可變薪酬提列減少,但部分被媒體收入佔淨銷售額比例的增加所抵消。

  • We spent 11.2% of net sales on media in the quarter, up from 10.8% of net sales in the prior year period. Logistics costs were 5.5% of net sales in the quarter compared to 5.6% in the prior year period. This continues to be a great strength of ours and something that we're very proud of.

    本季我們在媒體方面的支出佔淨銷售額的 11.2%,高於去年同期淨銷售額的 10.8%。本季物流成本佔淨銷售額的 5.5%,去年同期為 5.6%。這仍然是我們的一大優勢,也是我們引以為傲的事。

  • Third quarter net income was $101.7 million compared to $11.9 million in the prior year period. The significant increase in net income was primarily due to the deferred income tax benefit resulting from the release of a $77.9 million valuation allowance in the current period, higher sales and decreased SG&A expense and was partially offset by a decrease in gross profit as a percentage of net sales.

    第三季淨利為 1.017 億美元,而上年同期為 1,190 萬美元。淨收入大幅成長主要是由於本期釋放 7,790 萬美元估值準備金帶來的遞延所得稅收益、銷售額成長以及銷售、一般及行政費用下降,但部分被毛利潤佔淨銷售額百分比的下降所抵銷。

  • The release of the $77.9 million valuation allowance is being taken now because we have demonstrated consistent profitability over a meaningful period of time. As a result, our accumulated NOLs are now believed to have meaningful value. So they must flow through the P&L and end up on our balance sheet as an asset.

    現在釋放 7790 萬美元的估值準備金,是因為我們已經在相當長的一段時間內證明了持續盈利能力。因此,我們累積的淨經營虧損現在被認為具有實際意義。因此,它們必須經過損益表,最終作為資產出現在我們的資產負債表上。

  • We view this as another milestone in our progress towards becoming a highly profitable company. Third quarter adjusted EBITDA was $54.6 million compared to $43.5 million in the prior year period. This improvement was primarily driven by higher gross profit, partially offset by higher adjusted SG&A expenses.

    我們認為這是我們邁向成為高獲利公司道路上的另一個里程碑。第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 5,460 萬美元,而去年同期為 4,350 萬美元。這項改善主要得益於毛利的成長,但部分被調整後的銷售、一般及行政費用的增加所抵銷。

  • Capital spending for the third quarter was $35.2 million, while operating cash flow was $66.8 million, and we had cash on hand of $274.6 million at the end of the quarter. As Billy mentioned, we achieved positive free cash flow in the third quarter and now expect to be free cash flow positive for the full year. We intend to utilize our balance sheet to support our growth going forward with no need to raise outside capital.

    第三季資本支出為 3,520 萬美元,營運現金流為 6,680 萬美元,季末現金餘額為 2.746 億美元。正如比利所提到的,我們在第三季實現了正的自由現金流,現在預計全年自由現金流也將為正值。我們計劃利用自身的資產負債表來支持未來的發展,無需籌集外部資金。

  • Now turning to guidance for 2025. As Billy said earlier, we are tracking to the lower end of guidance ranges we provided last quarter. So we now expect net sales growth of approximately 13% compared to our previous guidance of 13% to 16% growth year-over-year. We now expect adjusted EBITDA in the range of $190 million to $195 million, compared to the previous guidance of $190 million to $210 million.

    現在轉向 2025 年的展望。正如比利之前所說,我們目前正朝著上個季度給出的預期範圍的下限穩步前進。因此,我們現在預計淨銷售額將年增約 13%,而我們先前的預期為年增 13% 至 16%。我們現在預計調整後 EBITDA 將在 1.9 億美元至 1.95 億美元之間,而先前的預期為 1.9 億美元至 2.1 億美元。

  • We continue to expect adjusted EBITDA dollars and margin to improve in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter. Media as a percent of sales for the year is expected to be greater than 2024. However, the fourth quarter will be the lowest total dollar spent and as a percent of net sales, in line with our past practices.

    我們仍然預計,與第三季相比,第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 金額和利潤率將有所改善。預計媒體支出佔全年銷售額的比例將高於 2024 年。然而,第四季的總支出金額和占淨銷售額的百分比都將是最低的,這與我們過去的做法一致。

  • We now anticipate adjusted gross margin to be flat year-over-year based on lower plant leverage related to our inventory levels, which caused a timing impact to our P&L. We have been able to successfully tighten our inventory without seeing any impact to fill rates.

    由於與庫存水準相關的工廠槓桿率降低,我們現在預計調整後的毛利率將與去年持平,這對我們的損益表造成了時間上的影響。我們已成功收緊庫存,而未對訂單完成率造成任何影響。

  • In regards to tariffs, we are currently seeing a small impact on vegetables sourced from Europe and mitigating them where we can. Capital expenditures are now projected to be approximately $140 million this year compared to our guidance last quarter of approximately $175 million and original guidance earlier this year of $250 million.

    關於關稅,我們目前看到它對從歐洲進口的蔬菜產生了一些影響,我們正在盡可能地減輕這些影響。今年資本支出預計約為 1.4 億美元,而上季我們給出的預期約為 1.75 億美元,今年稍早給出的預期為 2.5 億美元。

  • We have included some impact from tariffs and updated CapEx projection. The majority of our CapEx spend is focused on the installation of new capacity to support demand in the out years and the implementation of our new technology. But as Billy mentioned, we are seeing greater capital efficiencies in our existing facilities. While it is too early to provide guidance for next year, we do expect that ordinary CapEx for new capacity, fridges and maintenance will be in line with this year's spending.

    我們已將關稅的影響納入考量,並更新了資本支出預測。我們的大部分資本支出都集中在安裝新產能以滿足未來幾年的需求以及實施我們的新技術。但正如比利所提到的,我們在現有設施中看到了更高的資本效率。雖然現在對明年的情況做出預測還為時過早,但我們預計,用於新增產能、冰箱和維護的普通資本支出將與今年的支出保持一致。

  • However, if our new production technology demonstrates the potential we are expecting and we have the opportunity to accelerate either conversions of existing lines or the installation of new lines using that technology, we would certainly consider those opportunities. We believe that new technology could generate sizable economic benefits, improve our competitive position and elevate the quality we can deliver to consumers.

    但是,如果我們的新生產技術展現出我們所期望的潛力,並且我們有機會加快現有生產線的改造或使用該技術安裝新生產線,我們一定會考慮這些機會。我們相信,新科技可以帶來可觀的經濟效益,提高我們的競爭地位,並提升我們能為消費者提供的產品品質。

  • Similarly, if we have a breakthrough in the new distribution, particularly if it's a sizable expansion of the Island fridges, we would also fund that initiative due to the significant growth it could deliver. In either case, they would not impact our ability to deliver positive free cash flow in 2026, but our CapEx spending could be higher than 2025.

    同樣地,如果我們在新分銷方面取得突破,特別是如果 Island 冰箱的銷量大幅增長,我們也會為這項計劃提供資金,因為它可以帶來顯著的增長。無論哪種情況,都不會影響我們在 2026 年實現正自由現金流的能力,但我們的資本支出可能會高於 2025 年。

  • In summary, despite a challenging year, we are proud to have delivered another quarter of best-in-class CPG growth and demonstrate our cost discipline to deliver even stronger adjusted EBITDA margin expansion and become free cash flow positive.

    總而言之,儘管面臨挑戰,我們仍自豪地實現了另一個季度一流的消費品增長,並展現了我們在成本控制方面的卓越能力,從而實現了更強勁的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率擴張,並實現了自由現金流為正。

  • We believe Freshpet has a long runway for growth and is well positioned to capture the sales growth and profit growth of the high-growth fresh, frozen dog food category. That concludes our overview. We will now be glad to answer your questions. As a reminder, we ask that you please focus your questions on the quarter, guidance and the company's operations. Operator?

    我們相信 Freshpet 有很長的成長空間,並且已經做好充分準備,抓住高成長的新鮮冷凍狗糧品類帶來的銷售成長和利潤成長。我們的概述到此結束。現在我們很樂意回答您的問題。再次提醒各位,請將你們的問題集中在季度業績、公司指引和公司營運方面。操作員?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作說明)

  • Peter Benedict, Baird.

    彼得·本尼迪克特,貝爾德。

  • Peter Benedict - Analyst

    Peter Benedict - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. So my first is around kind of the new production technologies. Curious kind of maybe the time line on when you would make a decision on accelerating that -- those implementations, I guess, next year? Maybe give us a little sense of maybe how this light version coming in the spring compares with maybe the full version.

    大家好,早安。謝謝您回答問題。所以我的第一個問題是圍繞著新的生產技術展開的。我很好奇,你們大概什麼時候會決定加快這些計畫的實施──我猜是明年吧?或許可以讓我們稍微了解一下,這款將於春季推出的輕量版與完整版相比有何不同。

  • And Billy, as you -- if you roll this new technology out, you talked about improved quality. What does it mean for pricing? I mean, at these lower levels of sales, do you intend to kind of turn that into a more aggressive pricing structure in order to kind of reaccelerate the top line and take more share? Or how do you think about reinvesting those potential benefits? Thank you.

    比利,就像你一樣——如果你推出這項新技術,你談到了品質的提升。這對定價意味著什麼?我的意思是,在目前較低的銷售水平下,您是否打算採取更積極的定價策略,以重新加速營收成長並獲得更多市場份額?或者,您如何考慮將這些潛在收益再投資?謝謝。

  • Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

    Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

  • Great. Great. Thanks, Peter. Let me just start with, we're very excited by this new technology. As you heard in the recorded comments, the reality is we've been working on this for a long time. And what we see is the upside potential on it is enormous. We're still really early in the qualification of the first line. And so it's really hard for us to say exactly how long we'll watch that until we make a decision on expanding.

    偉大的。偉大的。謝謝你,彼得。首先我想說的是,我們對這項新技術感到非常興奮。正如你在錄音評論中聽到的那樣,事實上我們已經為此努力了很長時間。我們看到的是,它的上漲潛力巨大。我們目前還處於第一線資格認證的早期階段。因此,我們很難確切地說,我們會觀察多久才會決定是否擴張。

  • It depends on how reliable the line is, how much of a benefit we get, the performance of the products in the market. So I don't want to get on the record with any comment about when we would make that decision because it's really going to be dependent upon the operating performance and the quality of the products we produce.

    這取決於生產線的可靠性、我們獲得的收益以及產品在市場上的表現。所以我不想就何時做出該決定發表任何公開評論,因為這實際上取決於我們的營運業績和產品品質。

  • The second line, the first conversion of an existing line, the light version that we talked about, we'll start up in the second quarter of this year. And in terms of what's different about it, what makes it any different in the original technology, think of it as it has many of the same attributes just not to the same degree.

    第二條生產線,也就是我們之前提到的輕量級版本,是現有生產線的第一次改造,我們將在今年第二季啟動。至於它與原始技術有何不同,有何不同之處,可以把它看作是具有許多相同的屬性,只是程度不同而已。

  • So there is a throughput benefit, but it may not be as significant. There's a yield benefit, but it may not be as significant. There could be some quality benefits and may not be quite as significant. But what is significant is that it can be -- those lines can be converted much more quickly at a much lower capital cost.

    因此,吞吐量方面確實有優勢,但可能並不顯著。這樣做會有收益上的好處,但可能不顯著。可能會有一些品質方面的好處,但可能沒那麼顯著。但重要的是,這些生產線可以以更低的資本成本更快地進行改造。

  • And so we'll be watching as we start up that line comparing the performance of that line against the initial line that we're putting in, that's starting up now. And having to make a decision about is less capital, done more quickly on existing lines, a better idea than installing a new line that gives you all the benefits.

    因此,我們將觀察這條生產線的啟動情況,並將這條生產線的性能與我們正在安裝的、現在正在啟動的初始生產線的性能進行比較。而且,與其安裝一條新線路來獲得所有好處,不如在現有線路上投入更少的資金,更快地完成,這豈不是更好的選擇?

  • And we really won't know that until we get the line up and running. So think of it as sometime in the back half of next year, we'll be able to make that assessment about whether or not that makes sense for us to accelerate the expansion of those lines. So in the end, I think it's a great place to be. We have two very promising technologies that are very, very different and that can make a big difference.

    只有等生產線投入運作後,我們才能真正知道結果。所以,可以想像,在明年下半年某個時候,我們將能夠評估加快這些線路擴張是否對我們有意義。所以總的來說,我認為這裡是個很棒的地方。我們擁有兩項非常有前景的技術,它們截然不同,而且能夠帶來巨大的改變。

  • On the second part of your question, which is about how we deal with the quality improvements and also potentially pricing. It's also too early for us to commit on whether or not we would do anything related to pricing. Our focus right now is to demonstrate the quality benefits of the product.

    關於您問題的第二部分,即我們如何處理品質改進以及可能的定價問題。現在就我們是否會採取任何與定價相關的措施還為時過早。我們現在的重點是展示產品的品質優勢。

  • Obviously, we have a strong interest in improving the margins on our banks because they're below our roles, but it will be in a nice place when you can actually look at significant margin pickup and the opportunity to choose where you invest that, whether it goes to the bottom line or whether that goes into making -- sharpening our price point. I suspect that over time, you'll see a little bit of both. But for the most part, we are very determined to drive the margins up on our bag business, and that's one of the real benefits of this technology.

    顯然,我們非常希望提高我們銀行的利潤率,因為它們低於我們的職責範圍,但只有當利潤率大幅提高,並且有機會選擇投資方向時,情況才會好轉,無論是提高利潤還是提高價格,我們都可以進行選擇。我懷疑隨著時間的推移,你會發現兩者都會有所體現。但總的來說,我們決心提高箱包業務的利潤率,而這正是這項技術的真正優勢之一。

  • Peter Benedict - Analyst

    Peter Benedict - Analyst

  • That's helpful. Thanks, Bill. And then I guess my follow-up question would be around the competitive dynamics in the space. You alluded to the recent entry, said it has not affected your kind of retail placement plans at this point, but maybe just any early learnings in terms of pricing, positioning? Just anything you would say about how you're seeing new competition, both at retail, but then also in some of the frozen areas, which are tangential and coming more online? Thank you.

    那很有幫助。謝謝你,比爾。那麼,我的後續問題大概是關於該領域的競爭動態。您提到了最近新推出的產品,並表示目前尚未影響您的零售佈局計劃,但或許可以從中獲得一些關於定價和定位的初步經驗?您能否談談您如何看待零售業以及一些冷凍食品領域(這些領域與零售業關係不大,且更多地轉向線上)面臨的新競爭?謝謝。

  • Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

    Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Let me frame it at the -- I'll give you some top line thoughts, and I'm going to hand it to Nicki to talk to you about what we're seeing with our retailers in their actions. But obviously, there's been an unusually large amount of activity in the space this year. We view that as a validation that the fresh category is a big long-term potential.

    是的。讓我先概括一下——我先給出一些主要觀點,然後我會把麥克風交給妮基,讓她來談談我們從零售商那裡看到的行動。但很顯然,今年該領域的活動異常活躍。我們認為這驗證了生鮮品類具有巨大的長期潛力。

  • Retailers have seen that. Retailers are recognizing that. And so that is a good validator for us, and it kind of gives us a sense that the investments that we've made, the position we've carved out is a really attractive one.

    零售商們已經意識到了這一點。零售商們已經意識到了這一點。因此,這對我們來說是一個很好的驗證,也讓我們覺得我們所做的投資,我們所佔據的地位,是非常有吸引力的。

  • So far, from a top line perspective, we haven't seen much impact on our business, certainly not from the executions that have happened to retail. Most of the things that have happened in retail to date have been relatively small and not very significant in their total size.

    到目前為止,從總體上看,我們還沒有看到對我們的業務產生太大影響,當然,零售業的種種舉措也沒有對我們的業務產生太大影響。迄今為止,零售業發生的大多數事情都相對較小,整體規模也不大。

  • It's just still a little too early to talk about what happened -- what's happening with the Blue Buffalo launch. It's only been out there for a couple of weeks. The one thing I would notice is we have seen a little bit of price discounting done by them already, which is something that we're not surprised by. That's sort of their calling card. That's the way they do business.

    現在談論發生了什麼——Blue Buffalo 的上市情況——還為時過早。它上市才幾個星期而已。我注意到的一點是,他們已經進行了一些價格折扣,我們對此並不感到驚訝。那算是他們的招牌吧。他們就是這樣做生意的。

  • Our approach so far has been to stick to the game plan that we've executed over the long haul, and we'll continue to stick to that game plan, but we also are very determined that we won't lose consumers on a price or value basis. But that's how I see the competitive environment. I'm turning to Nicki, and she can talk a little bit more about how our customers are reacting to it.

    我們目前的做法是堅持我們長期以來執行的戰略計劃,我們將繼續堅持這一戰略計劃,但我們也決心不會因為價格或價值而失去消費者。但這就是我對競爭環境的看法。我轉向妮基,她可以再談談我們的客戶對此有何反應。

  • Nicki Baty - Chief Operating Officer

    Nicki Baty - Chief Operating Officer

  • Thanks, Billy, and thanks also, Peter. So despite the increasing competition coming into the category at the moment, we've been really pleased with, I think, a number of the metrics that we would use to just assess our retailer engagement.

    謝謝你,比利,也謝謝你,彼得。儘管目前該領域的競爭日益激烈,但我認為,我們對用來評估零售商參與度的許多指標都非常滿意。

  • As Billy said in the upfront comments, we've grown our cubic feet by 12% this year. We've had 13% improvement in distribution as well and also been making some good ground either in some new retailers where we've been testing, some other ones where we've had some full national rollout with, certainly in the club area.

    正如比利在開場白中所說,我們今年的立方英尺銷量增長了 12%。我們在分銷方面也取得了 13% 的改進,並且在一些我們正在測試的新零售商、一些我們已經進行全國全面推廣的零售商,尤其是在俱樂部領域,都取得了不錯的進展。

  • And then a strong signal, I think, from one of the largest retailers are really starting to get behind and improved visibility for fresh and have us leading the way with some New Island unit. So despite that competitive backdrop, I think we've actually had one of our best years in terms of fridge placements and support from retailers.

    我認為,來自大型零售商的強烈信號表明,他們真的開始支持並提高生鮮產品的可見度,而我們則在新島門市方面處於領先地位。儘管面臨如此激烈的競爭環境,但我認為就冰箱的擺放位置和零售商的支持而言,我們實際上迎來了最好的一年。

  • I think where that's going is, for us, a very strong endorsement. The fresh frozen segment is very much here to stay. And the only area that's leading growth. And to touch on the velocity point that Billy made, it's very early days. The competitive set at retail level is certainly relatively small in terms of velocities that they're seeing per store per week. We've been seeing, again, very strong velocities in those stores. The new players are coming in, too. So we've certainly seen no impact. but we are watching very closely.

    我認為,這對我們來說是一個非常強大的認可。新鮮冷凍食品市場將長期存在下去。也是唯一引領成長的領域。至於比利提到的速度問題,現在還為時過早。從零售層面來看,競爭對手的規模確實相對較小,這是因為他們每週每家店的銷售速度都比較快。我們再次看到這些門市的銷售速度非常強勁。新球員也陸續加入。所以目前我們還沒有看到任何影響,但我們會密切注意。

  • The key data set we'll be using in the coming months is much more about panel data to just make sure that there's no switching certainly with our occasional households or any loss of retention. So we'll keep a really close eye on it, and we've got some strong plans to make sure that, that doesn't happen.

    接下來幾個月我們將使用的關鍵數據集更多的是關於面板數據,以確保不會出現任何轉換,尤其是對於偶爾加入的家庭或任何流失情況。所以我們會密切關注此事,並且我們制定了一些強有力的計劃來確保這種情況不會發生。

  • Peter Benedict - Analyst

    Peter Benedict - Analyst

  • Right. Thanks very much, guys. Good luck.

    正確的。非常感謝各位。祝你好運。

  • Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

    Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brian Holland, D.A. Davidson.

    布萊恩·霍蘭德,D.A.戴維森。

  • Brian Holland - Analyst

    Brian Holland - Analyst

  • Thanks. Good morning. Maybe sticking along the lines of the distribution dynamic at retail. Obviously, the fridge island test, maybe a little more context if you could about the conversations with that customer, kind of how long that's been progressing, the logic behind the magnitude of that expansion just on a per store basis? And maybe what you're looking for, what they're looking forward to help determine what would be a successful test and maybe timing for a subsequent expansion on that?

    謝謝。早安.或許可以沿用零售業的經銷模式。顯然,關於冰箱島測試,如果您能提供更多關於與該客戶的對話背景信息,例如該測試已經進行了多久,以及單店規模擴張背後的邏輯,那就太好了?或許你所尋找的,他們所期待的,有助於確定什麼是成功的測試,以及後續擴展的時機?

  • Nicki Baty - Chief Operating Officer

    Nicki Baty - Chief Operating Officer

  • Great. Thanks, Brian. I'll take this one. So look, as you're no doubt aware, this retailer doesn't make decisions overnight, and there's a lot of discipline that goes into making sure the operational effectiveness runs smoothly for something like these island units. The capacity of each of the island units is around 2.5 times an individual chiller.

    偉大的。謝謝你,布萊恩。我選這個。所以你看,你肯定也知道,這家零售商不會在一夜之間做出決定,而且要確保像這些獨立單元這樣的營運效率順利進行,需要大量的紀律。每個島式單元的容量約為單一冷水機組的 2.5 倍。

  • So these island units allow not just fantastic retail visibility and brand visibility to lead the category, but they also allow more assortment and a breadth of assortment to be coming into each store. So what that's done, and I think as you know already, with this retailer, we typically don't have perhaps as many SKUs as we do to compete with some of the great retailers.

    因此,這些島式單元不僅能帶來極佳的零售可見性和品牌可見性,從而引領品類,而且還能讓更多種類和更豐富的商品進入每個商店。所以,正如您所知,我們這家零售商通常沒有那麼多 SKU 來與一些大型零售商競爭。

  • So it's allowed us to actually launch some of our innovation in the more affordable price bracket. So that would include things like the multipacks, the entry-level bag, a number of items really that can bring in new households through. So as of this week, we installed 16 of these island units.

    因此,這使我們能夠以更實惠的價格推出一些創新產品。所以這其中就包括多件裝產品、入門級背包等等,這些產品確實能夠吸引新的家庭用戶。截至本週,我們已經安裝了16台這樣的島式設備。

  • We have another burst coming of Island units as well. And there's some criteria that we're working with Walmart on to really be able to set exactly what the sales velocity needs to be for future rollout. Now one caveat, I would say, is making sure that the islands perform to our mutual criteria because these are also a bigger capital investment is important. And then there will be likely somewhere in the region of a four month lead time before we were able to execute at scale as well.

    我們還有另一波島嶼單元即將推出。我們正在與沃爾瑪合作制定一些標準,以便能夠準確地設定未來推廣所需的銷售速度。不過,我要提醒一點,要確保這些島嶼符合我們雙方的標準,因為這也是一項更大的資本投資,這點很重要。然後,我們可能還需要大約四個月的準備時間才能大規模執行。

  • Brian Holland - Analyst

    Brian Holland - Analyst

  • Thanks, Baty. Appreciate the color. And then, Billy, appreciating it's November 3, and you typically start to provide a little more color around how '26 is shaping up in early January. Can you give a sense about some of the building blocks here, right? Because obviously, we're in a very dynamic environment, but relative to maybe this time a year ago, you've got a better handle on what's happening with the consumer or at least we've been in this dynamic for longer now.

    謝謝你,巴蒂。欣賞這種顏色。然後,比利,考慮到今天是 11 月 3 日,你通常會在 1 月初開始對 2026 年的情況進行更詳細的描述。可以簡單介紹一下這裡的一些基本組成嗎?顯然,我們身處在一個瞬息萬變的環境中,但與一年前的這個時候相比,我們對消費者的動態有了更深入的了解,或者至少我們已經在這種動態中待了更長時間了。

  • You also have some of these distribution moving pieces here that are coming together. So really interested in two parts. One, just thinking about the building blocks for '26 on the top line at this juncture? And also how that informs your media spend?

    這裡還有一些分銷環節正在逐步整合。我對其中兩個部分很感興趣。第一,現在這個階段,我們只是在思考2026年最重要因素的建構要素嗎?這又將如何影響你的媒體支出呢?

  • Obviously, you've talked about a lot of plans in place, but how do you think about the magnitude of the investment you want to put behind media when there are clearly fewer incremental pet parents to go after in this environment?

    顯然,你們已經談了很多計劃,但是,在當前環境下,需要爭取的新寵物主人數量明顯減少,你們是如何考慮要在媒體方面投入多少資金的呢?

  • Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

    Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. I'll give you a couple of thoughts on that. So first of all, as you know, we'll give our guidance when we get to the end of February. And in an environment is dynamic as this, I'm frankly very grateful to have a couple of extra months an opportunity to observe what's happening. Recall the world looked very different last year on the same day than it end up looking back when we got to the end of February and then it changed even further.

    是的。我對此有幾點想法。首先,正如你們所知,我們將在二月底給予指導意見。在這樣瞬息萬變的環境中,我非常感激能有額外的幾個月時間去觀察正在發生的事情。回想一下,去年同一天的世界與二月底我們回頭看時的世界截然不同,之後世界又有了進一步的變化。

  • As you know, we are very, very focused on trying to drive up household penetration, particularly looking at MVPs. So we're watching that data very, very carefully and seeing what the trends are, what direction it's going. And that will be a big driver of how we determine what our expectations are for revenue for next year.

    如您所知,我們非常非常注重提高家庭滲透率,尤其關注最小可行產品 (MVP)。所以我們正在非常非常仔細地觀察這些數據,看看趨勢是什麼,它朝著哪個方向發展。這將極大地影響我們對明年收入的預期。

  • We're still going to be very much a media-driven business. We are very focused on using media driver business, but we're not going to be irrational about it. We're going to make sure that the media that we're spending is getting us a decent return.

    我們仍然會是一家以媒體為主導的企業。我們非常注重利用媒體驅動業務,但我們不會不理智地去做這件事。我們將確保我們在媒體上的投入能夠獲得可觀的回報。

  • As Nicki has commented, we've done quite a bit to drive the efficiency of our media plan and we need to make sure that we're really focusing on those things that are as most efficient as possible and give us the highest likelihood of a return. And so that's a big part of the planning process that we're in right now.

    正如妮基所說,我們已經做了很多工作來提高媒體計畫的效率,我們需要確保我們真正專注於那些效率最高、回報可能性最大的事情。所以,這是我們目前正在進行的規劃過程中的重要部分。

  • And then the last part is, obviously, what are retailers going to be doing? And how does that influence the visibility and availability of the brand? As you know, we are not of the school that thinks that we are just creating demand via white space.

    最後一部分很顯然是,零售商們將要做什麼?這又會對品牌的知名度和可近性產生怎樣的影響呢?如您所知,我們並不屬於那種認為我們只是透過空白市場來創造需求的學派。

  • We think it's really visibility, meaning amplifying the advertising and availability, meaning having a wider range of items available, but having good visibility on what that's going to look like will inform us quite a bit. As we mentioned previously, the island fridges is a big step change.

    我們認為關鍵在於提高可見度,也就是加大廣告宣傳力度;而提高產品供應量,也就是提供更多種類的商品,則是要充分了解最終效果,這能給我們提供很多有用的信息。正如我們之前提到的,島式冰箱是一個巨大的變革。

  • It's probably not going to have much of an impact in the first half of next year. There's a chance to get some impact in the second half of next year, but there are also a bunch of other retailers who are looking at doing some fairly sizable things, either new retailers, as we mentioned in the call, there's a rural lifestyle retailer who is now in test.

    明年上半年可能不會造成太大影響。明年下半年或許有機會產生一些影響,但也有許多其他零售商正在考慮做一些相當大的事情,包括新的零售商,正如我們在電話會議中提到的,有一家鄉村生活方式零售商目前正在進行測試。

  • We also have quite a bit of new distribution coming with existing customers in the forms of second and third fridges. So we'll put all those things together, and I'll give you what our view is. But I think it's way too early to say right now. It's just going to be built on the same building blocks we've talked about in the past.

    我們還有相當多的新通路,包括現有客戶的第二台和第三台冰箱。所以我們會把所有這些因素綜合起來,然後我再告訴你我們的觀點。但我認為現在下結論還為時過早。它仍然會建立在我們過去討論過的那些基本組成部分之上。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tom Palmer, JPMorgan.

    湯姆‧帕爾默,摩根大通。

  • Tom Palmer - Analyst

    Tom Palmer - Analyst

  • Good morning, and thanks for the question. Maybe kicking off, I just wanted to ask on the CapEx next year, $140 million as kind of a starting point. What projects is most of this going to? I guess the commentary on the $1.5 billion in production capacity would seem like you've got a couple of years before you really run into constraints at least. And so just kind of wondering, are there -- is it because there are certain products that are facing constraints even if, from a dollar standpoint, you're fine? Any color. Thank you.

    早安,謝謝你的提問。或許可以先從明年的資本支出說起,1.4億美元可以作為一個起點。這些資金大部分將用於哪些項目?我覺得,根據對15億美元產能的評論來看,至少在未來幾年內,你不會真正遇到瓶頸。所以我就想知道,是不是因為某些產品面臨限制,即使從金錢角度來看,你覺得沒問題?任何顏色。謝謝。

  • Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

    Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. I'll frame this, and then I'm going to hand it to Ivan. But always start with the understanding that we are a growing business. Even though we're not growing at the rate we are growing before, we are a growing business. And adding capacity takes time.

    是的。我會把它裱起來,然後交給伊凡。但首先要明白,我們是一家不斷成長的企業。儘管我們的成長速度不如以前,但我們仍然是一家不斷成長的企業。增加產能需要時間。

  • So we'll be investing in '26 for capacity that we won't need until probably '27 or '28. And you're right in your assumption that there is some form specific elements to this, so bags are different than roles, our home style creations and our chicken bites require different technology, different capacity.

    因此,我們將在 2026 年投資建造一些產能,而這些產能可能要到 2027 年或 2028 年才會用到。你的假設是對的,這其中確實存在一些特定形式的因素,所以包裝袋與卷裝食品不同,我們的家庭式產品和雞塊需要不同的技術和不同的容量。

  • And don't forget that we have the new technology that we can always pull forward, which is what we were talking about before, but the new technology -- investing in new technology is something we can do. But let me turn it to Ivan, and he can characterize for you sort of how you think about that $140 million being spent next year and the optionality that he described in his comments.

    別忘了我們還有可以不斷推進的新技術,這正是我們之前一直在談論的,但新技術——投資新技術是我們能夠做到的。但讓我把這個問題交給伊万,他可以向你描述一下你對明年花費的 1.4 億美元的看法,以及他在評論中提到的各種選擇。

  • Ivan Garcia - Interim Chief Financial Officer

    Ivan Garcia - Interim Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Thanks, Billy. Tom, so another thing to also keep in mind with our CapEx spend is we currently have $1.5 billion of capacity in front of us currently on the business. So any spend that we're doing is for the out years. When we look at the $140 million, that is -- that includes our current spend, what we're currently looking at as far as the projects. And we're also looking at wrapping up some of the technology that we are currently going to go live with next year.

    是的。謝謝你,比利。湯姆,還有一點要記住,關於我們的資本支出,我們目前在業務方面有 15 億美元的產能。因此,我們所有的支出都是為了未來幾年。當我們審視這 1.4 億美元時,這包括我們目前的支出,以及我們目前正在關注的項目。我們也正在著手完善一些我們計劃明年上線的技術。

  • That being said, there is we have any new distribution, such as the island chillers that we want to lean into, we're willing and able to go ahead and make those investments, and that will be above and beyond the $140 million. Also, if we want to lean into technology, if we start to see that play out, we're also willing and able to go ahead and lean into that. And that will also be up and beyond $140 million.

    也就是說,如果我們有任何新的分銷管道,例如我們想要專注於發展的島式冷水機,我們願意並且能夠繼續進行這些投資,而這些投資將超出 1.4 億美元。此外,如果我們想擁抱科技,如果我們開始看到這種趨勢,我們也願意並且能夠繼續擁抱科技。而這個數字也將超過 1.4 億美元。

  • Tom Palmer - Analyst

    Tom Palmer - Analyst

  • Understood. Thank you for that. On the EBITDA margin longer term, you gave some helpful color on kind of different levels you could hit at different growth rates. Just when we're bridging the high single-digit potential growth to that 20% EBITDA margin you noted, the 2% difference, where would we mainly see that? Is the gross margin target kind of holding at multiple levels and it's more about SG&A leverage or perhaps a bit different? Thank you.

    明白了。謝謝。從長遠來看,您對 EBITDA 利潤率在不同成長率下可能達到的不同水準給出了一些有益的見解。就在我們將高個位數的潛在成長與你提到的 20% EBITDA 利潤率拉近的時候,這 2% 的差距,我們主要會在哪裡看到呢?毛利率目標是否在多個水準上保持穩定,而更多取決於銷售、管理及行政費用的槓桿作用,或者情況可能有所不同?謝謝。

  • Ivan Garcia - Interim Chief Financial Officer

    Ivan Garcia - Interim Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, that's a great question. That's obviously something that we're currently looking at. And as you noted, high single digits, we're looking at 20%, low teens, we're looking at 22%. So let's just break apart the P&L for a second. On the gross margin level, we feel very confident that we will be able to hit our 48% at both high single digits and low teens.

    是的,這是一個很好的問題。這顯然是我們目前正在研究的問題。正如你所指出的,個位數高位,我們預期是 20%;個位數低位,我們預期是 22%。那麼,我們不妨簡單分析一下損益表。在毛利率方面,我們非常有信心達到 48% 的目標,無論是接近兩位數還是接近百分之十。

  • There might even be potential for us to be a little bit above that 48%, and that's excluding any new technology. I want to make sure everyone appreciates that. And then from there, it's just the leverage that you would get flowing through your SG&A.

    我們甚至有可能略高於 48%,而且這還不包括任何新技術。我希望每個人都能意識到這一點。然後,接下來就是透過銷售、一般及行政費用所獲得的槓桿效應了。

  • We currently believe that at single digits, we'd be at 20% and then double digits we would be at 22% at that point at scale. But we continue to be very confident with our ability to hit both the adjusted EBITDA as well as our gross margin.

    我們目前認為,如果感染率達到個位數,我們的感染率將達到 20%;如果感染率達到兩位數,我們的感染率將達到 22%。但我們仍然非常有信心實現調整後的 EBITDA 目標和毛利率目標。

  • Tom Palmer - Analyst

    Tom Palmer - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you.

    好的。謝謝。

  • Ivan Garcia - Interim Chief Financial Officer

    Ivan Garcia - Interim Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Rupesh Parikh, Oppenheimer.

    Rupesh Parikh,奧本海默。

  • Rupesh Parikh - Analyst

    Rupesh Parikh - Analyst

  • Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. So I just want to go to the -- I guess, to the Q4 implied sales guidance. It does imply a moderation versus even maybe the 12% consumption you saw in Q3. So just curious the drivers there and maybe it also embeds conservatism. So yeah, just curious on the drivers there.

    早安.謝謝您回答我的問題。所以我只想談談——我想,談談第四季的隱含銷售預期。這確實意味著消費有所放緩,甚至可能比第三季度看到的 12% 的消費水平有所下降。所以我只是好奇那裡的司機們,也許這也反映了他們的保守思想。是的,我只是對那裡的司機感到好奇。

  • Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

    Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, Rupesh, we're frankly just reflecting what we're seeing in the market today, the -- what we're seeing in the consumption data that's coming through. We also have to be mindful that we've seen years past where retailers move up or down their inventory at the year-end around the holidays, so we want to be cautious about that.

    是的,Rupesh,坦白說,我們只是反映了我們今天在市場上看到的情況,也就是——我們從消費數據中看到的情況。我們還必須注意,過去幾年我們看到零售商在年底假日期間會增加或減少庫存,所以我們要對此保持謹慎。

  • And also just recognizing that we have a new competitive set, and we want to be mindful that there are things that could change in the dynamics in the coming months. But at this point, we're looking at the Nielsen every week, just like everybody else is. We feel good about the trends that we're seeing in delivering the guidance we talked about. And hopefully, that continues.

    同時我們也意識到,我們面臨著新的競爭格局,我們希望注意,未來幾個月市場動態可能會改變。但現在,我們和其他人一樣,每週都會關注尼爾森收視率。我們對目前在提供我們之前討論過的指導方面所看到的趨勢感到滿意。希望這種情況能夠持續下去。

  • Rupesh Parikh - Analyst

    Rupesh Parikh - Analyst

  • Great. And then maybe my follow-up question, just on gross margins. So I know this year, there's pretty minimal gross margin expansion. But as you look towards getting to that 48%, what are the bigger buckets we should be thinking about?

    偉大的。然後,我可能還有一個後續問題,關於毛利率。所以我知道今年毛利率的成長幅度非常小。但當我們展望達到 48% 的目標時,我們應該考慮哪些更重要的面向呢?

  • Ivan Garcia - Interim Chief Financial Officer

    Ivan Garcia - Interim Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Good question, Rupesh. So as we look at the gross margin for this quarter, I want to really maybe peel back the -- I mean, just one layer and look at the drivers that we're seeing during this quarter. So when we look at input costs, we're very happy with the progress we've made throughout the year. We continue to make a slight progress on yield every quarter.

    是的。問得好,魯佩什。所以,當我們審視本季的毛利率時,我想真正地剝開——我的意思是,只剝開一層,看看我們在本季度看到的驅動因素。因此,從投入成本來看,我們對全年的進展感到非常滿意。我們每季在收益率方面都持續取得小幅進步。

  • When we look at quality, we continue to be in the low 2% throughout the year and more importantly, we're having a lot of consistency with our quality, which is going to be very important as we look at gaining leverage on gross margin in the coming years.

    從品質方面來看,我們全年都保持在 2% 的低水平,更重要的是,我們的品質非常穩定,這對於我們未來幾年提高毛利率至關重要。

  • And then you have plant cost. So our conversion cost this quarter was actually really good. We were happy with that conversion cost. What occurred during the quarter was a timing issue between our inventory and Q2 versus Q3, we want to head and decrease our inventory. That was a hurt of 130 basis points, which we should get back in Q4.

    然後還有植物成本。所以,我們本季的轉換成本其實非常理想。我們對轉換成本很滿意。本季出現的情況是我們的庫存與第二季和第三季之間的時間安排問題,我們希望盡快減少庫存。那造成了 130 個基點的損失,我們應該會在第四季彌補回來。

  • That's what we're expecting in Q4 to have a gross margin handle of 47%. And that's where we believe we are currently. We're a 47% gross margin company. So as we look at getting to 48%, we'll continue to leverage our plant costs. That's the main lever that we have in front of us currently.

    我們預計第四季的毛利率將達到 47%。這就是我們目前所處的境地。我們公司的毛利率為 47%。因此,在努力實現 48% 的目標時,我們將繼續利用我們的工廠成本優勢。這是我們目前掌握的主要槓桿。

  • Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

    Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Let me just add to that. One of the things that we're very focused on is getting ourselves in a position where we have the right amount of inventory, very healthy inventory to deliver great customer service, good in-stock conditions, not have surplus inventory because that obviously doesn't serve us well, but we believe we're now in a position where we have the staffing that can carry us through next year.

    是的。我再補充一點。我們非常關注的事情之一是確保我們擁有適量的庫存,非常健康的庫存狀況,以便提供優質的客戶服務,保持良好的庫存狀態,避免庫存過剩,因為這顯然對我們不利。但我們相信,我們目前的人員配備足以支撐我們度過明年。

  • And to Ivan's point about conversion costs, that's the single biggest driver of our margin improvement. We'll be getting better leverage on the conversion cost, and it's base leverage on the staffing, and that comes because we're driving the ROE. The team that we've got, the training, the stability in our manufacturing operations has delivered the capability they get more volume out of existing staffing. And that's a critical driver for us of building margin.

    至於伊万提到的轉換成本,這正是我們利潤率提高的最大驅動因素。我們將更好地利用轉換成本,並更好地利用人員配備,這是因為我們正在提高 ROE。我們擁有的團隊、培訓以及生產營運的穩定性,使他們能夠利用現有人員實現更高的產量。而這正是我們提升利潤率的關鍵驅動因素。

  • Rupesh Parikh - Analyst

    Rupesh Parikh - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you.

    偉大的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Robert Moskow, TD Cowen.

    Robert Moskow,TD Cowen。

  • Robert Moskow - Analyst

    Robert Moskow - Analyst

  • Hi, thanks. Hey, Billy, on slide 17, you mentioned $1.5 billion of installed capacity today that is not fully staffed. And then in terms of priorities for next year, retrofitting existing bag lines with light versions. I guess two questions. The $1.5 billion, how quickly can you fully staff that much capacity? And then secondly, what's the -- is there a way to quantify what the benefit of this light version is? Like what does it provide to you from a gross margin perspective? Thanks.

    您好,謝謝。嘿,比利,你在第 17 張投影片中提到,目前有價值 15 億美元的已安裝產能尚未完全配備人員。然後,就明年的優先事項而言,是對現有包裝生產線進行改造,使其配備輕量化包裝袋。我想問兩個問題。15億美元,你多久才能滿足如此龐大的產能需求?其次,有沒有辦法量化這個輕量版帶來的好處呢?從毛利率的角度來看,它能為你帶來什麼?謝謝。

  • Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

    Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. So on the timing question, typically, if we have the line installed in an existing building, adding staffing can be done on, call it, 90 to 120 day kind of timetable, you won't want to do two or three lines at the same time that way because you would be diluting the talent that you have at that site.

    是的。所以關於時間安排的問題,通常情況下,如果我們在現有建築物中安裝生產線,增加人員配備可以在大約 90 到 120 天的時間表內完成,你不會想同時進行兩到三條生產線的建設,因為那樣會分散你在該地點的現有人才。

  • But if we had an increase in demand and we had a line that had available capacity, meaning it was running only half time or it's a partial schedule, then we could add staffing in, call it, 90, 120 days. And so we feel very comfortable about our ability to do that. The labor market is supported. Our training and development teams are in a good position to do that.

    但是,如果需求增加,而我們有一條生產線有可用產能,這意味著它只運行一半時間或部分時間,那麼我們可以增加人手,比如說,90天、120天。因此,我們對自身俱備這樣的能力感到非常有信心。勞動市場得到支撐。我們的培訓和發展團隊完全有能力做到這一點。

  • In terms of the value of this -- the new technology and how that might impact the capacity, that's one of the most important questions we want to get answered as we go through the testing and qualification phase Every one of the test runs we do, we're tinkering with what the throughput rates will be. We're tinkering with the amount of time we can run the line continuously between stopping it and doing maintenance and cleaning out. And all those variables will have a big impact on what the total increase in capacity will end up being.

    就這項新技術及其對產能的影響而言,這是我們在測試和認證階段想要解答的最重要的問題之一。我們進行的每一次測試運行,都會不斷調整吞吐量。我們正在調整生產線在停止運作、進行維護和清理之間的連續運作時間。所有這些變數都會對最終的總產能成長量產生重大影響。

  • It's too early for me to commit to it. But when you think about the margin gain, what we've described is, if we execute this new technology, the gap between our bags and our roles could close considerably. It won't get all the way back to where our roles are, but it will get pretty close once it's fully expanded across our entire lineup across all of our lines. So it's not something to happen '26 or '27, but by the time you get into '28, you could start seeing the gap between bags and rolls closed considerably.

    現在對我來說做出決定還為時過早。但從利潤率的角度來看,正如我們所描述的,如果我們實施這項新技術,我們的產品和產品之間的差距可能會大大縮小。雖然無法完全恢復到我們目前的角色水平,但一旦全面擴展到我們所有產品線,就會非常接近。所以,這不會在 2026 年或 2027 年發生,但到了 2028 年,你可能會看到袋裝和捲裝之間的差距大幅縮小。

  • Robert Moskow - Analyst

    Robert Moskow - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you.

    好的。謝謝。

  • Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

    Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Angeline Goh, Deutsche Bank.

    安吉琳‧戈,德意志銀行。

  • Angeline Goh - Analyst

    Angeline Goh - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. This is Angeline on for Steve. A quick question on how would you approach trade promotions going forward given that -- is promoting heavily?

    您好,早安。這裡是安吉琳,替史蒂夫報道。請問,鑑於目前大力推廣的情況,您今後將如何進行貿易促銷活動?

  • Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

    Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Let me frame this, and then I'll turn it to Nicki. But first of all, welcome to the call. It's nice to meet you. I would just tell you, our position has been that we believe when you're in the perishable products business that trade promotion, which just creates spikes in demand, short-term stocking up and then troughs that follow behind it, it's not a very efficient way to run the business.

    是的。讓我先把這個裱框好,然後再交給妮琪。但首先,歡迎參加本次通話。很高興認識你。我想告訴你的是,我們的立場是,我們認為,在易腐產品行業,貿易促銷只會造成需求激增、短期囤貨,然後隨之而來的是需求低谷,這並不是一種高效的經營方式。

  • And so we are going to avoid that practice as much as we possibly can. It's also good for the long-term profitability. And it also means that our advertising model is the primary driver of bringing consumers in the franchise. So people who buy the product for the first time at full price. So that's the overall philosophy. I'll turn it to Nicki and she can just comment on how we're thinking about it in the context of having new competitors in the market.

    因此,我們將盡可能避免這種做法。長遠來看,這也有利於獲利能力。這也意味著我們的廣告模式是吸引消費者加入加盟店的主要動力。所以,指的是那些第一次全價購買該產品的人。這就是整體理念。我會把這個問題交給妮基,讓她就我們在市場上出現新競爭對手的情況下如何看待這個問題發表意見。

  • Nicki Baty - Chief Operating Officer

    Nicki Baty - Chief Operating Officer

  • Thanks. Nice to meet you, Angeline. So we've done a lot of work really reviewing those category dynamics in terms of promotions, price elasticity on our portfolio and also deeply assessing the media ROI. We come out in a place where we still believe what's right for our brand is media is the critical driver overall for growth.

    謝謝。很高興認識你,安吉琳。因此,我們做了很多工作,認真檢視了我們產品組合的促銷活動、價格彈性等品類動態,並深入評估了媒體投資報酬率。我們最終還是認為,媒體是推動品牌整體成長的關鍵因素,這對我們的品牌來說是正確的選擇。

  • Trade promotions, as Billy indicated, don't seem to be doing anything other than driving what we would call occasional households into the brand. And as it stands, we're here to build long-term brand equity and also to build a loyal franchise of consumers in Freshpet.

    正如比利所指出的那樣,貿易促銷活動似乎除了把我們所說的偶爾購買該品牌產品的家庭吸引到該品牌之外,沒有起到任何其他作用。目前,我們的目標是建立長期的品牌資產,並在 Freshpet 品牌下建立一批忠實的消費者。

  • We haven't seen any strong results really in the competitive environment of brand succeeding with promotions in the dog food category. So our focus right now is very much to make sure that our media delivers both long-term equity and near-term ROI. And that's really the model that we're using.

    在競爭激烈的狗糧類別中,我們還沒有看到任何品牌透過促銷活動成功的顯著成果。因此,我們目前的重點是確保我們的媒體能夠帶來長期的收益和短期的投資報酬率。這就是我們實際採用的模型。

  • You will see us investing less in areas like linear TV where we've seen a little bit of diminishing returns with the current consumer sentiment. But you're also going to see us investing more in digital touch points that drive that direct conversion, in particular, through e-commerce, which we believe is a very big opportunity for growth for Freshpet in the future.

    你會看到我們減少在諸如線性電視等領域的投資,因為在目前的消費者情緒下,這些領域的收益有所遞減。但您還會看到我們加大對推動直接轉換的數位觸點的投資,特別是透過電子商務,我們相信這對 Freshpet 未來而言是一個非常大的成長機會。

  • Angeline Goh - Analyst

    Angeline Goh - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you, [all].

    偉大的。謝謝你,[全部]。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Lavery, Piper Sandler.

    麥可·拉弗里,派珀·桑德勒。

  • Michael Lavery - Analyst

    Michael Lavery - Analyst

  • Thank you. Good morning. Just want to touch on -- you announced a CFO transition in the quarter. And in the time that -- from when Todd was there until just now, there's been significant improvement, obviously, in a lot of different ways, most notably the margin momentum. But it was always our sense that he changed some of the sort of discipline and institutional things that could last beyond him quite well.

    謝謝。早安.我想簡單提一下——您在本季宣布了財務長的更迭。從托德在任到現在這段時間裡,顯然在許多方面都取得了顯著進步,最顯著的是利潤率的成長動能。但我們始終覺得,他改變了一些紀律和製度的東西,這些東西在他去世後也能很好地繼續存在下去。

  • So can you maybe just touch a little bit on some of how that comes to life and what to expect kind of being sticky from some of the changes or momentum that was in place these last few years? And maybe then what you're looking for and who's next in terms of kind of taking it from there?

    那麼,您能否稍微談談它是如何實現的,以及過去幾年裡的一些變化或勢頭可能會帶來哪些持久的影響?那麼,你究竟在尋找什麼?接下來誰來接手?

  • Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

    Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. I'll take a shot at this. I'll ask Ivan to chime in, in a minute with what he's observed as change because he's been here for a very long time. He's got a long view on it. But obviously, we love having Todd here. He added an enormous amount of value.

    是的。我來試試。我稍後會請伊凡說說他觀察到的變化,因為他在這裡待了很久。他對此有長遠的考量。但很顯然,我們非常歡迎托德在這裡。他創造了巨大的價值。

  • He was a healthy skeptic on anything that the most optimistic members of our organization viewed as slam dunks and it was a healthy balance that it created in our organization. Also brought a lot of practical discipline and he had a relentless desire to keep things simple. And I think that, that's a calling card of his, and I think that's something that's been embraced as part of our organization.

    對於我們組織中最樂觀的成員認為十拿九穩的事情,他總是抱著健康的懷疑態度,這在我們組織中創造了一種健康的平衡。他也帶來了很多務實的紀律性,並且始終堅持把事情簡單化。我認為,這是他的個人特色,也是我們組織所秉持的理念。

  • When I look forward, obviously, as I said in the scripted remarks, the reality is that this is viewed as a very attractive position, being the CFO at Freshpet. We have very robust amount of interest in the position. I am highly confident we're going to be able to attract really high-quality talent for this position.

    展望未來,正如我在事先準備好的演講中所說,現實情況是,擔任 Freshpet 的財務長是一個非常有吸引力的職位。我們收到了很多對該職位的濃厚興趣。我非常有信心我們能夠為這個職位吸引到真正優秀的人才。

  • What's really going to be important for us, though, is in sort of the root of your comment is how this person fits in with the team. We need somebody who is going to be complementary to what the team's skills are. And the skills that we have today are dramatically different than the skills that we had a couple of years ago when we hired Todd.

    但對我們來說真正重要的是,你評論的根本在於這個人如何融入團隊。我們需要一位能夠與團隊現有技能互補的人才。我們今天所擁有的技能與幾年前我們聘用托德時所擁有的技能截然不同。

  • We are much deeper. We have a much stronger capability across our broad leadership team within our finance team and the requirements for the person stepping into this job are going to be probably much more strategic, much more conceptual leadership because we've built a lot of the technical capability inside the organization today.

    我們遠比這更深。我們財務團隊的領導團隊整體能力更強,因此,擔任此職位的人員可能需要更強的策略性和概念性領導力,因為我們目前已經在組織內部建立了許多技術能力。

  • And so we're looking for somebody who can play at that level. But I'd turn it to Ivan just to give you any observations he has about what he observed in the pre-Todd days to Todd days and what he hopes to carry forward.

    因此,我們正在尋找能夠達到那個水平的球員。但我會把這個問題轉給伊万,讓他談談他對托德上任前後的觀察,以及他希望繼續保持的做法。

  • Ivan Garcia - Interim Chief Financial Officer

    Ivan Garcia - Interim Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Thank you. Michael, I think you touched on something that's really important that Todd was able to drive, and that was culture, right? And culture permeates. And the great thing about culture is that when someone leaves that culture stays behind. And there's a few things that he definitely brought healthy optimism, as Billy noted, practicality. And also, when we look at planning, the thing that we always ensure is that there's various paths to get into the goal.

    是的。謝謝。邁克爾,我認為你觸及了托德能夠推動的非常重要的一點,那就是文化,對吧?文化滲透到各個層面。文化最棒的地方在於,即使有人離開,文化也會留下來。正如比利所指出的那樣,他確實帶來了一些積極樂觀的品質,以及務實的態度。而且,在進行規劃時,我們始終確保有多種途徑可以實現目標。

  • And that's something that we continue to have when we look at our long-term guidance for 2027. There's more than one path there. And when we'll see where it all ends up, we continue to feel very confident that we'll be able to deliver on the goals that's Todd assisted us in building out. And Todd if you're listening, Hello. I love you.

    這也是我們在展望 2027 年長期發展方向時仍堅持的原則。那裡不只一條路可走。當我們看到最終結果時,我們仍然非常有信心實現托德幫助我們設定的目標。托德,如果你在聽的話,你好。我愛你。

  • Michael Lavery - Analyst

    Michael Lavery - Analyst

  • That's all really helpful. And just a follow-up on 4Q. You pointed out that you're basically guiding that implied 4Q momentum right at around what it's selling through. But you've also got some of the new advertising. You've got a new competitive launch that's switching into fresh.

    這些都很有幫助。關於第四季度,我再補充一點。您指出,您基本上是在引導第四季的隱含動能,使其與目前的銷售價格基本持平。但你也能看到一些新的廣告。你們推出了一款全新的、極具競爭力的產品,它正在迅速轉型。

  • You've got the bag -- the complete nutrition bag launch. Are your assumptions that all of those are sort of a push? Or would you say you expect a lift or a risk or I guess how would you unpack some of those pieces and what to keep an eye on from our side in terms of how things might unfold for the rest of the year?

    你已經拿到包包了——完整的營養包上市了。你的假設是所有這些都是一種推動嗎?或者您會說您預期會有提振還是會有風險?我想您會如何分析這些因素,以及就我們而言,在今年餘下的時間裡,事情可能會如何發展,我們應該關注哪些方面?

  • Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

    Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Let me just balance it out and just tell you, obviously, the level of precision we had in this business 1.5 years ago doesn't exist today given the environment that we're operating in. But you described many of the things that I would characterize as sort of the initiatives that are going to drive growth and then some of the things that are headwinds to work against.

    是的。讓我平衡一下,很顯然,鑑於我們所處的經營環境,我們1.5年前在這個行業中所擁有的精確度如今已不復存在。但你描述的很多事情,我都會將其歸類為推動成長的舉措,同時也會提到一些需要克服的阻力。

  • Obviously, the new advertising is a big help. We've seen it on air. We are very optimistic about the performance it's going to drive the retailer engagement and the actions the retailers are taking is helping us. The expansion that we described in the club channel is obviously helping us quite a bit.

    顯然,新的廣告方式起了很大的幫助。我們在電視上看到過了。我們對它所能帶來的業績表現非常樂觀,它將推動零售商的參與,而零售商正在採取的行動也對我們有所幫助。我們在俱樂部頻道中描述的擴張顯然對我們幫助很大。

  • The complete nutrition product is helping us quite a bit. We have to put all that against the backdrop of the consumer sentiment remains weak. The consumer sentiment for October was in line with where it was in April and May, which is not a healthy place to be. The category is still in a tough place. So that's a fairly sizable headwind that we have to address.

    這款全營養產品對我們幫助很大。我們必須將所有這些因素放在消費者信心依然疲軟的大背景下看待。10月份的消費者信心與4月和5月的水平一致,這不是一個健康的水平。該類別目前處境依然艱困。所以,這是我們必須應付的一個相當大的阻力。

  • We believe that we are outperforming the category by a significant margin, call it, in the range of 10 points, and it's something we'd expect to be able to sustain, but it's just the category is having a tough time right now.

    我們相信,我們的業績比同類產品大得多,大概高出 10 個百分點,我們預計這種優勢能夠維持下去,但目前整個產業情況嚴峻。

  • In addition to that, there's the uncertainty created by the expanded number of competitors that we have. And again, so far, so good. We feel pretty good about the position that we're in and the relative outperformance that we have. But we're also going to be very mindful that things are still going to come down the pipe, and we'll have to see how we play against those.

    除此之外,競爭對手數量的增加也帶來了不確定性。目前為止,一切順利。我們對目前的處境和相對優異的表現感到非常滿意。但我們也時時謹記,未來還會有新的情況出現,我們需要看看如何應對。

  • So you balance them all out and kind of say, okay, what's in the market and what we're seeing in Nielsen today, it looks like is what we're going to see for the balance of the quarter. And that's sort of the way we're thinking about it.

    所以你要把所有這些因素綜合起來,然後說,好吧,市場上的情況以及我們今天在尼爾森的數據中看到的情況,看起來就是我們在本季度剩餘時間裡將會看到的情況。我們也是這麼想的。

  • Michael Lavery - Analyst

    Michael Lavery - Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks a lot. I'll pass it on.

    好的。多謝。我會轉達的。

  • Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

    Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Peter Galbo, Bank of America.

    Peter Galbo,美國銀行。

  • Peter Galbo - Analyst

    Peter Galbo - Analyst

  • Hey, Billy. Good morning.

    嘿,比利。早安.

  • Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

    Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning.

    早安.

  • Peter Galbo - Analyst

    Peter Galbo - Analyst

  • Not to harp on the Q4 implied guidance, but I do have an additional question there. Look, I think if we're reading the math right, right, the implied actual dollars of revenue in Q4 is probably flat to down versus Q3. And I know you don't want to give guidance on '26 today, but maybe we could just pressure test the logic of, if we run out kind of the current environment into the front half of next year, before Island fridges coming in the back half, it just -- to me, it seems like there's a possibility that sequentially things kind of stay the same, at least through the first half, which I think would imply what you've seen in the past, some kind of flattish revenue quarters, at least sequentially.

    我不想再糾結於第四季的業績指引,但我確實還有一個問題。我認為,如果我們對數學的理解沒錯,那麼第四季的實際收入(以美元計)可能會與第三季持平或下降。我知道您今天不想對 2026 年的情況給出指導,但也許我們可以對這個邏輯進行壓力測試:如果我們把目前的這種環境延續到明年上半年,然後再讓 Island 冰箱在下半年上市,在我看來,情況似乎有可能保持不變,至少在上半年是這樣,我認為這意味著您過去看到的情況,即收入季度基本持平,至少從季度比這樣。

  • So again, I know you don't want to give an official '26, but maybe we can just kind of think about that logic as we think about the first half of next year? And any thoughts there? Thanks very much.

    所以,我知道你不想正式宣布2026年,但或許我們可以把這個邏輯應用在我們明年上半年的規劃上?大家有什麼想法嗎?非常感謝。

  • Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

    Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Yeah. Let me just recharacterize what we believe is happening sequentially, and you can then project it forward as you see fit. But remember that the Q3 number we described, we had 1 point help of stuff that carried over from Q2 into Q3. And another point of help that came from the Sam's pipeline fill that happened in the quarter.

    是的。是的。讓我重新描述我們認為正在發生的事情的先後順序,然後您可以根據自己的理解進行推論。但請記住,在我們描述的第三季數字中,有 1 個點的分數來自第二季延續到第三季的因素。另一個幫助來自本季度 Sam's 管道的補給。

  • So you're seeing this Q3 was probably a little bit bigger than it normally would be. When you go to Q4, while it hasn't happened every year, Q3 to Q4 has been probably the small sequential gain we have historically. There have been some years where it's basically been flat Q3 to Q4. Part of that is the way the trade manages inventory. Part of that is it's our lowest advertising spend quarter. There's a whole lot of reasons for that to happen.

    所以你可以看到,第三季的業績可能比平常略高一些。進入第四季度,雖然這種情況並非每年都會發生,但第三季到第四季的環比成長可能是史上最小的。有些年份,第三季到第四季基本上持平。部分原因在於貿易商管理庫存的方式。部分原因是這是我們廣告支出最低的一個季度。造成這種情況的原因有很多。

  • So I wouldn't take a relatively flat sequential Q3 to Q4 to mean anything about what the trend will be going into Q1 because we've seen stuff like that before and Q1 then bounces back and is a fairly significant increase.

    因此,我不會將第三季到第四季相對平穩的環比成長視為對第一季度趨勢的任何預兆,因為我們以前也見過類似的情況,而第一季隨後就會反彈並出現相當大的成長。

  • On top of that, the other part of it is, I would say that the biggest anomaly for us was Q2 of this year. Q2 obviously gave up some volume to Q3 and that shift that we saw, the Q2 was relatively flat compared to Q1, and that was the real anomaly. And that really matched up with all the concern around tariffs, all the change in the consumer sentiment was so dramatic.

    除此之外,我認為我們遇到的最大異常情況是今年第二季。第二季度銷售量明顯低於第三季度,我們看到的第二季度銷售量與第一季相比相對平穩,這才是真正的異常之處。這與人們對關稅的擔憂完全吻合,消費者情緒的變化非常劇烈。

  • As you project going forward, I would expect that next year would have a more normal cadence that the market has adapted to this environment. And so you see sequential cadence that look more like it has historically rather than what it looked like in 2024 -- 2025. But under any set of circumstances, you should recognize we will be building market share.

    展望未來,我預期明年市場節奏會更加正常,市場已經適應了這種環境。因此,你會看到一種更像歷史上的順序節奏,而不是像 2024 年到 2025 年的節奏。但無論在任何情況下,你都應該認識到我們將不斷擴大市場份額。

  • We will be outpacing the category. And so no matter what the sentiment is, no matter what's going on, we will be outperforming the category sequentially as well as on a year-on-year basis. So that's sort of how we're seeing it.

    我們將超越同類產品。因此,無論市場情緒如何,無論發生什麼,我們都將在環比和同比方面超越同類產品。所以,我們大概就是這麼看的。

  • Peter Galbo - Analyst

    Peter Galbo - Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks for that. That's very helpful. And Ivan, maybe just a more technical one. Just the NOL tax benefit in the quarter, I mean, is there a changed assumption in the tax status now? Should we be actually modeling cash taxes going forward? Just anything on that, please? Thanks very much.

    好的。謝謝。那很有幫助。而伊万,或許只是個技術型的。我的意思是,就本季的淨營業虧損稅收優惠而言,目前的稅務狀況假設是否發生了變化?我們是否應該對未來的現金稅收進行建模?有什麼相關內容嗎?非常感謝。

  • Ivan Garcia - Interim Chief Financial Officer

    Ivan Garcia - Interim Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. And maybe I'll take a little bit of a step back and explain that entry a little bit more. It's not that common of an entry actually. So it's something that throughout our time here, our goal has always been to be a highly profitable company. And on that journey, every now and then, you hit certain milestones, and this is definitely one of the big milestones that we are hitting.

    是的。或許我應該退後一步,再詳細解釋那篇文章。其實這種題型並不常見。所以,在我們經營這家公司的這段時間裡,我們的目標始終是成為一家高獲利的公司。在這段旅程中,你會不時達到一些里程碑,而這絕對是我們正在達到的一個重要里程碑。

  • What this is saying is all those NOLs that we incurred since the start of Freshpet, they have a tax benefit associated with it. Unfortunately, the auditors, the accountants don't allow you to take that benefit to your P&L until you're able to prove that you will be able to utilize them.

    也就是說,自 Freshpet 成立以來我們產生的全部 NOL(淨營業虧損)都享有相應的稅收優惠。遺憾的是,審計師和會計師不允許你將這項收益計入損益表,除非你能證明你能夠利用這些收益。

  • And this is the first quarter where we've been able to utilize or to prove to our accountants that we will actually be able to utilize the NOLs. So we now have an asset -- a significant asset on our books. And we also see the offset of going through the P&L. That's a onetime benefit that's flowing through.

    這是我們第一個能夠利用或向我們的會計師證明我們實際上能夠利用淨營業虧損的季度。所以我們現在帳上多了一項資產──一項重要的資產。我們也可以看到損益表中的抵銷效應。這是一次性的福利。

  • And yes, going back to your specific comment, we will now start to see a tax expense flow through our P&L in the coming quarters. That being said, we will not be a taxpayer. We will actually offset that with the asset that we have on the books. But it's something that we're really proud of. For all the Freshpet team members that are listening in please be very proud of this. This is a huge thing that we're all really excited about.

    是的,回到您剛才提到的問題,在接下來的幾個季度裡,我們將在損益表中看到稅收支出。也就是說,我們不會成為納稅人。我們將用帳面上的資產來抵銷這部分損失。但我們對此感到非常自豪。所有正在收聽的Freshpet團隊成員,請為此感到非常自豪。這是一件讓我們所有人都非常興奮的大事。

  • Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

    Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. And just comment on when you think we would become a cash tax payer.

    是的。請問您認為我們什麼時候會開始繳現金稅?

  • Ivan Garcia - Interim Chief Financial Officer

    Ivan Garcia - Interim Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, that's a good point. Right now, we're looking at depend on the growth algorithm, but around 2028 is when we think we'll start to be a tax payer -- cash tax payer.

    沒錯,你說得有道理。目前,我們正著眼於成長演算法,但我們認為大約在 2028 年左右,我們將開始成為納稅人——現金納稅人。

  • Peter Galbo - Analyst

    Peter Galbo - Analyst

  • Hey, Ivan, just if I could sneak one in. Like what's the estimated book tax rate just versus cash, but just the book tax rate we should put in the model going forward?

    嘿,伊万,如果我能偷偷帶一個進去就好了。例如,帳面稅率(相對於現金稅率)的預估是多少?我們應該在模型中輸入的只是帳面稅率嗎?

  • Ivan Garcia - Interim Chief Financial Officer

    Ivan Garcia - Interim Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, we're still -- I mean, we're still looking into that, but we're going to -- just the normal corporate tax rate and then the majority tax rate on top of that, but we'll keep on shopping the pencil on that. But once again, in the short term, we will not be paying cash that we'll be utilizing NOLs against that.

    是的,我們還在——我的意思是,我們還在研究這個問題,但我們會——先按正常的公司稅率,然後再在此基礎上加上多數稅率,但我們會繼續仔細斟酌。但再次強調,短期內我們不會支付現金,我們將利用淨營業虧損來抵銷這部分支出。

  • Peter Galbo - Analyst

    Peter Galbo - Analyst

  • Thanks very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jon Andersen, William Blair.

    喬恩·安德森,威廉·布萊爾。

  • Jon Andersen - Analyst

    Jon Andersen - Analyst

  • I'll put two in here and then listen. Billy, you mentioned in the prepared comments that you expect the online business to have a more material impact in 2026 you've been underpenetrated historically. I assume that, that's not -- you're underpenetrated with respect to kind of your clicks and bricks part of that strategy, fulfillment from your fridges is strong, but more on the DTC side. Can you talk about some of the actions that you might take on that front, what to expect, how impactful that could be?

    我放兩個進去,然後聽聽看。比利,你在準備好的評論中提到,你預計線上業務將在 2026 年產生更實質的影響,而你過去在該領域的滲透率一直很低。我假設,那不是——就你的線上線下融合策略而言,你的滲透率還不夠高,冰箱的配送能力很強,但更多的是面向消費者的。您能否談談您在這方面可能會採取的一些行動,可以預期會發生什麼,以及這些行動會產生多大的影響?

  • And then second, just in light of all the discussion around competition lately, if you could just remind us where you are in terms of your moat? I think when -- I think about early days of Freshpet, it was about the fridge footprint. It seems like it's perhaps the manufacturing scale and maybe even now the technology that you're considering implementing that represent maybe the bigger parts of your moat, but I think it would be helpful if you have some thoughts on that as well. Thanks.

    其次,鑑於最近關於競爭的討論很多,您能否提醒我們一下,就您的護城河而言,您目前處於什麼位置?我認為,當我回想起 Freshpet 的早期發展階段時,它關注的是冰箱的佔地面積。看起來,或許是生產規模,甚至可能是你現在正在考慮實施的技術,才是你護城河中更大的組成部分,但如果你也能就此發表一些看法,我想會很有幫助的。謝謝。

  • Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

    Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. So I'll take the second part first, and then I'll turn it to Nicki to answer the first part about the e-commerce DTC part. Your characterization of the moats is fairly accurate. I think the most evolve and develop over time. As you recall, when we launched feeder growth in 2017, it was because we believe that fresh was inherently a scale-driven business. And we also had a first mover, and we wanted to maximize the benefit of both the first mover and also get scale before others entered the market.

    是的。所以我先回答第二部分,然後請 Nicki 回答關於電子商務 DTC 部分的第一部分。你對護城河的描述相當準確。我認為大多數事物都會隨著時間的推移而演變和發展。您可能還記得,我們​​在 2017 年啟動了生鮮食品成長計劃,因為我們認為生鮮食品本質上是規模驅動型業務。而且我們還是先行者,我們希望最大限度地發揮先行者的優勢,並在其他人進入市場之前擴大規模。

  • We've now gotten to the point where we've delivered on those, the advantages we've got, the head start we've got, the scale that we've created are delivering sizable advantages. In 2019, we made the decision to start investing in technology and manufacturing because we believe the manufacturing technology in the space was very premature or immature. And so we start investing. And that's sort of a long-term thinking that we brought to this business.

    我們現在已經實現了這些目標,我們擁有的優勢、我們所取得的先發優勢、我們創造的規模正在帶來巨大的優勢。2019 年,我們決定開始投資技術和製造領域,因為我們認為該領域的製造技術還非常不成熟或不成熟。於是我們開始投資。這就是我們帶入這家企業的長遠思維。

  • And today, we're now about to realize the benefit of that long-term thinking and that investment that we've made where it's not only going to be the manufacturing scale, it's going to be the manufacturing technology and the quality and the margins that, that produces, there will be a big advantage.

    今天,我們即將實現這種長期思考和投資的好處,這不僅體現在生產規模上,也體現在生產技術、品質和利潤率上,這將帶來巨大的優勢。

  • Along the way, we've been building a brand, a brand that stands for the virtues and benefits of this category. We've been broadening our product lineup. So now we have product assortments that need a wider range of needs than any of the people who come into the category after us.

    一路走來,我們一直在打造一個品牌,一個代表這個品類優點和優勢的品牌。我們一直在拓展產品線。所以現在我們的產品系列需要滿足比後來進入該類別的任何公司更廣泛的需求。

  • We've gotten the retail visibility and availability from the number of stores and the fridges we had, and we continue to invest in that by changing the way in which people shop this category with the fridge islands. So you should think about us as continually investing in those things that will create an even bigger and more sizable moat. And frankly, it struggles that everybody's had in competing with us would suggest that those investments have served us very, very well.

    我們已經透過門市數量和冰箱數量獲得了零售可見性和可及性,我們將繼續投資於此,透過冰箱島改變人們購買此類商品的方式。所以你應該把我們看成是不斷投資那些能夠打造更大更堅固護城河的事物。坦白說,所有與我們競爭的人都遇到了困難,這表明這些投資對我們非常非常有益。

  • So at this point, I think you should expect that we're probably working on some stuff behind the scenes that you aren't aware of yet that are going to build that moat further. But we're right now going to focus on driving the moats that we have created, the technology, manufacturing scale, the brand equity, the product assortment and driving it maximum leverage from those.

    所以,我認為你應該預料到,我們可能正在幕後進行一些你還不知道的事情,這些事情將進一步加固我們的護城河。但我們現在將專注於發揮我們已經建立的護城河優勢,即技術、製造規模、品牌資產、產品種類,並最大限度地利用這些優勢。

  • So let me turn it to Nicki to talk about the e-commerce side of this.

    那麼,就讓妮基來談談電子商務的問題吧。

  • Nicki Baty - Chief Operating Officer

    Nicki Baty - Chief Operating Officer

  • Great. Thanks, Billy, and hello, John. So e-commerce, as you rightly pointed out, is a big opportunity for us here at Freshpet. It's only 14% share of our business. And we've had another quarter. This quarter was 45% growth. The previous two quarters around 40% growth. So it's also becoming a really important part of our growth algorithm going forward, too.

    偉大的。謝謝你,比利,你好,約翰。正如您所指出的,電子商務對我們 Freshpet 來說是一個巨大的機會。這僅占我們業務的14%。又一個季度過去了。本季成長了45%。前兩季成長率約為 40%。因此,它也正在成為我們未來成長演算法中非常重要的一部分。

  • The category is over 30% e-commerce penetration. And we know when we dig into our consumer that it is a preferred place to shop as well. And also very important for that millennial and Gen Z consumer that were a bit underpenetrated in.

    該品類電子商務滲透率超過30%。我們深入了解消費者後發現,這裡也是他們首選的購物場所。這一點對於千禧世代和 Z 世代消費者來說也非常重要,因為他們的消費市場滲透率相對較低。

  • So this year, we've spent a lot of time building out our capabilities and focus to really start to win in e-commerce, and you'll see more of that as we go into next year too. The fridge network, yes, you rightly point out that's the biggest part of our e-commerce business, service through Click & Collect and also last-mile delivery. But we also think that there is an opportunity, obviously, for pure play.

    所以今年,我們花了很多時間來提升自身能力,並專注於真正開始在電子商務領域取得成功,明年你們也會看到更多這方面的進展。是的,您說得對,冰箱配送網路是我們電子商務業務中最大的部分,包括「點擊提貨」服務和最後一公里配送。但我們也認為,顯然,純粹的娛樂模式也存在著發展機會。

  • You've seen the news on Amazon Fresh and Chewy clearly is opportunity space for us to drive into. But our D2C business is also going to be an important part of the mix. I would say that D2C for us won't be a primary channel that we will drive. But it absolutely plays a role in terms of incremental households to the brand.

    你已經看到了亞馬遜生鮮和Chewy的相關新聞,很明顯,這對我們來說是一個可以進入的機會領域。但我們的D2C業務也將是其中重要的一環。我認為D2C對我們來說不會是我們重點發展的主要管道。但它確實在為品牌增加家庭用戶方面發揮了作用。

  • So we stood up a small D2C business earlier this year. We're seeing some really encouraging green shoots coming through. 70% of our households are incremental, first time trying the Freshpet brand, with very, very high buy rates, typically more than double what our current MVP buy rate is we're seeing coming through in that area. So all the metrics are looking like it has got some good headroom to be part of our growth for the future.

    所以,我們今年年初成立了一家小型D2C企業。我們看到了一些非常令人鼓舞的正面跡象。 70% 的家庭是新客戶,是第一次嘗試 Freshpet 品牌,他們的購買率非常高,通常是我們目前 MVP 產品購買率的兩倍以上,我們在這個領域看到了這種成長勢頭。因此,所有指標都顯示它還有很大的成長空間,可以成為我們未來成長的一部分。

  • Jon Andersen - Analyst

    Jon Andersen - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

    Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Jon.

    謝謝你,喬恩。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. At this time, we have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to management for closing comments.

    謝謝。至此,我們的問答環節到此結束。我想把發言權交還給管理階層,請他們做總結陳詞。

  • Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

    Billy Cyr - Chief Executive Officer

  • Great. Thank you, everyone. Thank you for your interest. Let me leave you with this thought. It's from an unknown author. Without my dog, my wallet will be full, my house will be clean, but my heart would be empty. To that, I would add, fill your dog's stomach with Freshpet every day and your heart will be forever full. Thank you very much for your interest.

    偉大的。謝謝大家。感謝您的關注。最後,我想留給大家一個思考的問題。作者不詳。如果沒有我的狗,我的錢包會很鼓,我的房子會很乾淨,但我的心會空蕩蕩的。我還要補充一點,每天給你的狗狗餵食 Freshpet,你的心也會永遠充滿幸福。非常感謝您的關注。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation. Have a wonderful day.

    謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。您可以在此時斷開線路。感謝您的參與。祝您有美好的一天。