Freshpet Inc (FRPT) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to Freshpet's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this conference is being recorded. At this time, I'll now turn the conference over to Rachel Ulsh, Vice President of Investor Relations. Ms. Ulsh, you may now begin your presentation.

問候。歡迎參加 Freshpet 第四季和 2023 財政年度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄製中。現在，我將把會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Rachel Ulsh。 Ulsh 女士，您現在可以開始您的演講了。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Freshpet's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Earnings Call and webcast.

謝謝。早安，歡迎來到 Freshpet 的第四季和 2023 財年財年財報電話會議和網路廣播。

On today's call are Billy Cyr, Chief Executive Officer; and Todd Cunfer, Chief Financial Officer; Scott Morris, Chief Operating Officer, will also be available for Q&A.

執行長比利·西爾 (Billy Cyr) 出席了今天的電話會議；坎弗 (Todd Cunfer)，財務長；營運長 Scott Morris 也將出席問答環節。

Before we begin, please remember that during the course of this call, management may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These include statements related to our long-term strategy, focus 2027 goals, pace in achieving these goals, prospects for growth, and new technologies and 2024 guidance. Words such as believe, could, estimate, expect, guidance, intend, may, project, will or similar conditional expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management's current expectations and beliefs and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in these forward-looking statements, including those associated with such statements and accuracies and third-party data.

在我們開始之前，請記住，在本次電話會議期間，管理階層可能會做出1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性聲明。其中包括與我們的長期策略、2027 年重點目標、步伐相關的聲明。實現這些目標的過程、成長前景、新技術和 2024 年指引。相信、可能、估計、期望、指導、打算、可能、項目、意願或類似的條件表達等詞語旨在識別前瞻性陳述。這些陳述是基於管理層目前的預期和信念，涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述中描述的結果有重大差異，包括與此類陳述和準確性以及第三方數據相關的結果。

Please refer to the company's annual report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and the company's press release issued today for a detailed discussion of the risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made today.

請參閱該公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格年度報告以及該公司今天發布的新聞稿，詳細討論可能導致實際結果與任何前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異的風險。看看今天發表的聲明。

Please note on today's call, management will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, such as EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA, among others. While the company believes these non-GAAP financial measures provide useful information for investors, the presentation of the information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the financial information presented in accordance with GAAP. Please refer to today's press release for how management defines such non-GAAP measures, why management believes such non-GAAP measures are useful, a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable measures prepared in accordance with GAAP and limitations associated with such non-GAAP measures.

請注意，在今天的電話會議上，管理階層將參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標，例如 EBITDA 和調整後 EBITDA 等。雖然公司認為這些非公認會計原則財務指標為投資者提供了有用的信息，但這些信息的呈現並不旨在被孤立地考慮或作為根據公認會計原則呈現的財務信息的替代品。請參閱今天的新聞稿，了解管理層如何定義此類非GAAP 衡量標準、為什麼管理層認為此類非GAAP 衡量標準有用、非GAAP 財務衡量標準與根據GAAP 制定的最具可比性衡量標準的對賬以及與相關限制相關的資訊。此類非公認會計準則措施。

Finally, the company has produced a presentation that contains many of the key metrics that will be discussed on this call. That presentation can be found on the company's investor website. Management's commentary will not specifically walk through the presentation on the call, rather, it is a summary of the results and guidance they will discuss today.

最後，該公司製作了一份演示文稿，其中包含本次電話會議將討論的許多關鍵指標。該演示文稿可以在該公司的投資者網站上找到。管理層的評論不會具體介紹電話會議的演示，而是對他們今天將討論的結果和指導的總結。

With that, I would like to turn the call over to Bill Cyr, Chief Executive Officer.

說到這裡，我想將電話轉給執行長比爾·西爾 (Bill Cyr)。

Thank you, Rachel, and good morning, everyone. The message I would like you to take away from today's call is that we believe Freshpet has reached an inflection point on its journey towards becoming not only a sizable, but profitable business in the emerging fresh/frozen segment of the Pet Food market. We delivered the strong growth you've come to expect from us, but also turned a corner on our profitability and are on our way towards delivering the kind of profitability and cash flow one would expect as a market leader.

謝謝你，雷切爾，大家早安。我希望您從今天的電話會議中傳達的信息是，我們相信 Freshpet 已經達到了其發展歷程的拐點，在寵物食品市場的新興新鮮/冷凍領域，它不僅成為一家規模可觀、而且盈利的企業。我們實現了您所期望的強勁增長，同時我們的盈利能力也出現了轉機，並且正在朝著市場領導者所期望的盈利能力和現金流方向邁進。

In 2023, we made significant progress on nearly all the metrics we set out to deliver. And if we continue to execute as we did in 2023, we will prove that with increased scale comes to increase profitability and in turn, shareholder value.

2023 年，我們在幾乎所有計畫交付的指標上都取得了重大進展。如果我們繼續像 2023 年那樣執行，我們將證明，規模的擴大會提高獲利能力，進而提高股東價值。

Our Feed the Growth strategy, which we implemented in 2017, and was driven by our dual beliefs that Freshpet food is a scale-driven business, and that it was also important to maximize our first-mover advantage before competitors entered the Freshpet food market. Our transition to a fresh future plan last year reflected our belief that we are at the point where we have achieved sufficient scale and first-mover advantage such that we can begin to pivot to delivering the profitability that should come with that scale. Our 2023 results show the initial indications of our ability to drive that profitability, and we believe there is a significant opportunity to drive further profit improvement going forward.

我們於2017 年實施了「促進成長」策略，該策略的推動因素是我們的雙重信念：Freshpet 食品是一家規模驅動型企業，而且在競爭對手進入Freshpet 食品市場之前最大限度地發揮我們的先發優勢也很重要。去年我們向新的未來計劃的過渡反映了我們的信念，即我們已經達到了足夠的規模和先發優勢，這樣我們就可以開始轉向提供與該規模相匹配的盈利能力。我們 2023 年的業績初步顯示了我們推動獲利能力的能力，我們相信未來有推動利潤進一步改善的重大機會。

Now, let me walk you through some highlights for the fourth quarter and full year. First, we ended the year with very strong net sales growth and exceeded our expectations with fourth quarter net sales of $215.4 million, up 30% year-over-year, driven primarily by volume growth of 25% and 5% price mix. This strong growth is compared to a very strong quarter last year when we had significant trade inventory refill. The growth was supported by a strong advertising presence and household penetration gains that accelerated throughout the quarter.

現在，讓我向您介紹第四季和全年的一些亮點。首先，我們以非常強勁的淨銷售額增長結束了這一年，並超越了我們的預期，第四季度淨銷售額為2.154 億美元，同比增長30%，這主要是由25% 的銷量增長和5% 的價格組合推動的。與去年季度的強勁成長相比，去年我們有大量貿易庫存補充。這一增長得益於強大的廣告影響力和整個季度加速的家庭滲透率增長。

Second, we continue to see the strong operational improvements, our fresh future plans were designed to drive, including sequential improvement in adjusted gross margin, logistics costs and adjusted EBITDA. Fourth quarter adjusted gross margin was 41.1% compared to 40.2% in the third quarter and 33% in the prior year period. Logistics costs came in at 6.3% of net sales, down from 9.4% in the prior year period, and 6.8% in the third quarter.

其次，我們繼續看到強勁的營運改善，這是我們新的未來計畫旨在推動的，包括調整後毛利率、物流成本和調整後 EBITDA 的連續改善。第四季調整後毛利率為 41.1%，而第三季為 40.2%，去年同期為 33%。物流成本佔淨銷售額的 6.3%，低於去年同期的 9.4% 和第三季的 6.8%。

Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was $31.3 million compared to $23.2 million in the third quarter and up 67% year-over-year. Fiscal year 2023 was our sixth consecutive year with greater than 25% sales growth with net sales of $766.9 million, up 29% year-over-year on the high end of our targeted range and above our expectations. Full year adjusted EBITDA was $66.6 million, more than 3x what we delivered in the previous year.

第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 3,130 萬美元，而第三季為 2,320 萬美元，較去年同期成長 67%。 2023 財年是我們連續第六年銷售額成長超過 25%，淨銷售額達 7.669 億美元，比我們目標範圍的高端年增 29%，超出我們的預期。全年調整後 EBITDA 為 6,660 萬美元，是我們上一年交付額的 3 倍以上。

These financial results demonstrate real momentum, the potency of our plans and the capability of our team. I'm incredibly proud of what you've been able to accomplish.

這些財務表現展現了真正的動力、我們計劃的效力和我們團隊的能力。我對你們所取得的成就感到無比自豪。

In addition to those financial highlights, we delivered the significant increase in retail presence, our retail partners saw it as they became increasingly confident in our ability to supply them. Specifically, a record of 5,251 fridge placements in 2023, including new stores, upgrades and second or third fridges, bringing us to a total of 34,274 fridges at retail or more than 1.7 million cubic feet of retail space.

除了這些財務亮點之外，我們的零售業務也顯著增加，我們的零售合作夥伴看到了這一點，因為他們對我們的供應能力越來越有信心。具體而言，到 2023 年，將放置 5,251 台冰箱，其中包括新店、升級以及第二台或第三台冰箱，創下歷史新高，零售冰箱總數達到 34,274 台，零售空間超過 170 萬立方英尺。

As of December 31, 2023, Freshpet could be found in 26,777 stores, more than 22% of which now have multiple fridges in the U.S. These fridge placements and store growth were supported by continued strong fill rates that ended the quarter in a high note.

截至2023 年12 月31 日，Freshpet 已遍布26,777 家商店，其中超過22% 的商店目前在美國擁有多台冰箱。這些冰箱的擺放位置和商店的增長受到持續強勁的填充率的支持，該季度末的填充率很高。

In addition to our strong retail business, we have also built a very strong digital business. Digital orders, which I previously referred to as e-commerce we define as any time you order on a phone or a desktop, so this includes anything from buy online, pick up in store, to Instacart, Chewy and Amazon. In 2023, our digital sales increased 58% year-over-year, and at this point, we are projecting digital orders to be over $100 million of net sales in 2024. The vast majority of our digital orders today are pickup or click and collect, which leverages our existing fridge network in retail. According to NielsenIQ, pickup is also the fastest-growing segment of online e-commerce in dog and cat food.

除了強大的零售業務外，我們還建立了非常強大的數位業務。數位訂單，我之前將其稱為電子商務，我們將其定義為您在手機或桌面上訂購的任何時間，因此這包括從在線購買、店內提貨到 Instacart、Chewy 和亞馬遜的任何內容。 2023 年，我們的數位銷售額將年增 58%，目前，我們預計 2024 年數位訂單的淨銷售額將超過 1 億美元。今天，我們的絕大多數數位訂單都是自提或點擊提貨，它利用了我們現有的零售冰箱網路。根據 NielsenIQ 的數據，自取也是狗糧和貓糧線上電子商務中成長最快的部分。

During our ICR Conference presentation in January, you may recall hearing us talk about the mainstream main meal, more profitable plans, which I'll simply refer to as main and more. We're making the Freshpet brand more mainstream and getting people to use it as a main meal component, and this creates intensity and concentration of the business that we believe will allow us to be more profitable.

在我們一月份的 ICR 會議演講中，您可能還記得聽到我們談論主流主餐、更有利可圖的計劃，我將其簡單地稱為“主要和更多”。我們正在使 Freshpet 品牌變得更加主流，並讓人們將其用作主要膳食成分，這創造了業務的強度和集中度，我們相信這將使我們能夠獲得更多利潤。

Diving a little deeper into the idea of mainstream, according to Nielsen Omnichannel data, which includes e-commerce and direct-to-consumer, as of December 30, 2023, total pet food is a $52 billion category. Within that is the $36 billion dog food category, which the majority of our business is today, and we have only a 3% market share, which leaves a vast runway for growth. At the same time, we have created a new segment within pet food: fresh/frozen pet food that has gained scale and is growing quickly. Within the fresh/frozen subcategory in measured channels, Freshpet has a 96% market share. Our goal is to make fresh even more mainstream since our products appeal to a wide range of income groups, we have products for each stage of a pet's life and are growing our portfolio to better meet the needs of larger dogs.

更深入探討主流的概念，根據尼爾森全通路數據（包括電子商務和直接面向消費者的數據），截至 2023 年 12 月 30 日，寵物食品總價值為 520 億美元。其中包括價值 360 億美元的狗糧類別，這是我們今天的大部分業務，但我們只佔 3% 的市場份額，這為成長留下了廣闊的空間。同時，我們在寵物食品領域創建了一個新的細分市場：新鮮/冷凍寵物食品，該領域已形成規模並正在快速成長。在已測通路的生鮮/冷凍子類別中，Freshpet擁有96%的市佔率。我們的目標是讓新鮮食品變得更加主流，因為我們的產品吸引了廣泛的收入群體，我們為寵物生命的每個階段提供產品，並且正在擴大我們的產品組合，以更好地滿足大型犬的需求。

Our household penetration at year-end was 11.555 million households, up 19% year-over-year and accelerating towards our target of over 20% household penetration growth. Our high-profit pet-owning households or HIPPOHs for short, grew even faster, up 28% versus a year ago. Household penetration has grown fastest with younger Gen Z consumers, and we saw growth across all income groups. We are on pace to meet our target of 20 million households by 2027.

截至年底，我們的家庭滲透率達到 1,155.5 萬戶，年增 19%，正在加速實現家庭滲透率成長 20% 以上的目標。我們的高利潤養寵物家庭（簡稱 HIPPOH）的成長速度更快，比一年前成長了 28%。年輕 Z 世代消費者的家庭滲透率成長最快，我們看到所有收入群體的成長。我們正努力實現 2027 年擁有 2,000 萬戶家庭的目標。

Overall retail availability continued to grow, with ACV at year-end of 64%, and we see upside in continued distribution gains going forward. We will continue to focus on depth too, not just breadth, increasing the percentage of stores with second and third fridges, I spoke about earlier.

整體零售供應量持續成長，年底 ACV 達到 64%，我們認為未來分銷持續成長的空間很大。我們也將繼續關注深度，而不僅僅是廣度，增加擁有第二台和第三台冰箱的商店的比例，我之前談到過。

Focusing on the concept of main meal, we know that 40% of Freshpet buyers use the product as the main component of their pet's meal, and there is a huge opportunity to significantly increase this percentage even with our HIPPOHs. 37% of Freshpet users are HIPPOHs and they represented 89% of our sales in 2023. We are using advertising to drive pet parents to feed Freshpet as the main meal item by focusing on healthy food, offering products at a variety of price points and expanding specialized recipes. The concept of converting toppers into main meal users will increase buy rate, which was $95.86 at year-end.

專注於主餐的概念，我們知道 40% 的 Freshpet 買家將該產品作為寵物餐的主要成分，即使使用我們的 HIPPOH，也有巨大的機會顯著提高這一比例。 37% 的 Freshpet 用戶是 HIPPOH，它們占我們 2023 年銷售額的 89%。我們正在利用廣告來推動寵物父母將 Freshpet 作為主要膳食項目，重點關注健康食品、提供各種價位的產品並擴大規模專門的食譜。將toppers轉換為主餐用戶的概念將提高購買率，年底為95.86美元。

Broadening availability of a wider range of our items can help drive more consumers to convert to using Freshpet as a main meal item. Adding second and third fridges enables us to do that, and this is -- also drives increased visibility for the brand, amplifying the value of our advertising. Based on mega-channel data, we currently have an average of 18.2 SKUs per store, up from 15.8 SKUs 1 year ago.

擴大我們更廣泛產品的供應範圍可以幫助推動更多消費者轉而使用 Freshpet 作為主要餐點。添加第二台和第三台冰箱使我們能夠做到這一點，這也提高了品牌的知名度，並放大了我們廣告的價值。根據大通路數據，我們目前每家商店平均擁有 18.2 個 SKU，高於一年前的 15.8 個 SKU。

Turning to the more part of main and more, more profitable, we are enhancing margins through improved operating performance and leveraging scale and efficiency. We believe increased business intensity and concentration will drive increased efficiency, and we are seeing that play out in our margins already.

轉向主要業務和利潤更高的部分，我們正在透過改善營運績效以及利用規模和效率來提高利潤率。我們相信，業務強度和集中度的提高將推動效率的提高，而且我們已經看到這在我們的利潤中發揮了作用。

Fourth quarter adjusted gross margin was up 810 basis points year-over-year to 41.1%, and adjusted EBITDA as a percent of net sales was 14.5% compared to 11.3% in the prior year period.

第四季調整後毛利率年增 810 個基點，達到 41.1%，調整後 EBITDA 佔淨銷售額的百分比為 14.5%，而去年同期為 11.3%。

Three key areas we have been most focused on have been input costs, logistics and quality. And we've improved all 3 this past year, with logistics now only 6.3% of net sales in the fourth quarter, down from 9.4% in the prior year period. In total, we improved those 3 areas by 390 basis points in Q4 and 560 basis points for the full year.

我們最關注的三個關鍵領域是投入成本、物流和品質。去年我們在這三個方面都取得了進步，目前物流僅佔第四季淨銷售額的 6.3%，低於去年同期的 9.4%。總的來說，我們在第四季將這 3 個領域提高了 390 個基點，全年提高了 560 個基點。

Focusing on capacity. We feel good about where we are today. December was an all-time production record across the system despite the loss of time for holidays, driving very strong fill rates in the high 90s today. And January production topped the December record. All 3 lines in the first phase of Ennis are operating today, and that site now accounts for 25% of our total system production, and as Phase 2 construction is on track for the start-up of the first roll line by the end of the third quarter of 2024.

注重能力。我們對今天的處境感覺良好。儘管失去了假期時間，但 12 月的生產量還是創下了整個系統的歷史最高紀錄，今天的填充率非常強勁，高達 90 美元以上。 1 月產量打破了 12 月的紀錄。恩尼斯第一期工程的所有3 條生產線現已投入運行，該工廠目前占我們系統總產量的25%，並且隨著二期工程的建設順利進行，第一條軋製生產線將在2017 年年底啟動. 2024 年第三季。

We've continued to evolve our capacity expansion plans to drive greater capital efficiency. We are very focused on, first, maximizing the output of our existing lines by investing in an operational excellence program designed to increase throughput. We are making good progress on that program in Bethlehem, and just started the plan in Ennis.

我們不斷完善產能擴張計劃，以提高資本效率。首先，我們非常注重透過投資旨在提高吞吐量的卓越營運計劃來最大限度地提高現有生產線的產量。我們在伯利恆的計劃取得了良好進展，並且剛剛在恩尼斯啟動了該計劃。

Second, maximizing the capacity of our 3 existing sites so that we can avoid the high cost of incremental infrastructure and overhead. This means finding ways to get more lines into each of the 3 sites. We've already announced plans to add a seventh line in Bethlehem. We believe we found a way to get an additional line or two in Kitchens South, and are also looking for ways to get more lines in Ennis.

其次，最大限度地提高我們 3 個現有站點的容量，這樣我們就可以避免增量基礎設施和管理費用的高成本。這意味著想辦法讓更多線路進入這 3 個站點。我們已經宣布計劃在伯利恆增加第七條生產線。我們相信我們找到了在廚房南增加一兩條線路的方法，並且也在尋找在恩尼斯增加更多線路的方法。

Third, developing new technologies that generate more throughput per line and per square foot of space. We've been working on this for some time and are making good progress, but are not ready to share any details at this time.

第三，開發新技術，提高每條生產線和每平方英尺空間的吞吐量。我們已經為此努力了一段時間並取得了良好進展，但目前不准備分享任何細節。

Overall, 2023 put us ahead of the pace needed to deliver our 2027 goals and gave us increased confidence in our ability to either meet or exceed those goals. The strong 29% net sales growth in the year was ahead of what we had projected.

總體而言，2023 年使我們領先於實現 2027 年目標所需的速度，並使我們對實現或超越這些目標的能力更有信心。今年 29% 的淨銷售額強勁成長超出了我們的預期。

As we head into 2024, we intend to manage the growth very closely so that we do not get ahead of capacity or organization capability. Our model works very well at 25% net sales growth over time, generating the right balance of cash generation and capital spending to deliver our financial targets. We do not want to get too far ahead of ourselves and upset that balance.

進入 2024 年，我們打算非常密切地管理成長，這樣我們就不會超越能力或組織能力。我們的模型運作良好，隨著時間的推移淨銷售額成長 25%，在現金產生和資本支出之間實現適當的平衡，以實現我們的財務目標。我們不想走得太遠而破壞這種平衡。

We recovered 400 basis points of adjusted gross margin in the year ahead of both our target and the pace needed to hit our 2027 target of a 45% adjusted gross margin when we ended the fourth quarter with an even higher adjusted gross margin at 41.1%, giving us even more encouragement about our ability to deliver our long-term goal.

我們在這一年中恢復了400 個基點的調整後毛利率，比我們的目標提前了400 個基點，也超出了實現2027 年調整後毛利率45% 的目標所需的速度，第四季度結束時，我們的調整後毛利率甚至更高，達到41.1%，讓我們對實現長期目標的能力更有信心。

We are well ahead of our long-term logistics target of 7.5% of net sales, delivering the target 3 years early and ending the year at a rate well below the target. It is clear that we have an opportunity to further improve in logistics and will likely set a new lower target in the future.

我們提前 3 年實現了佔淨銷售額 7.5% 的長期物流目標，並以遠低於目標的速度結束了年底。顯然，我們有機會進一步改善物流，並可能在未來設定新的較低目標。

Operating cash flow of $76 million was also ahead of our plan and increases our confidence in our ability to fund our growth with no need for additional equity and potentially not even needing any new debt.

7,600 萬美元的營運現金流也超出了我們的計劃，這增強了我們對我們為成長提供資金的能力的信心，而無需額外股本，甚至可能不需要任何新債務。

In summary, we had a very good year, and we believe we are on the cusp of profitability with greater scale and efficiency due to increased business intensity and concentration and disciplined capital management.

總而言之，我們度過了非常好的一年，我們相信，由於業務強度和集中度的提高以及嚴格的資本管理，我們正處於盈利的風口浪尖，規模更大，效率更高。

Now, let me turn it over to Todd to walk through the details of the Q4 results and our guidance for 2024. Todd?

現在，讓我將其交給托德，詳細介紹第四季度的業績以及我們對 2024 年的指導。托德？

Thank you, Billy, and good morning, everyone. As Billy mentioned, we had an excellent fourth quarter and a very strong year. Now, I'll give you some more color on our financials and guidance for the year.

謝謝你，比利，大家早安。正如比利所提到的，我們在第四季表現出色，今年也非常強勁。現在，我將向您介紹我們今年的財務狀況和指導。

Fourth quarter net sales were $215.4 million, up 30% year-over-year. Nielsen measured dollar growth was 28% versus prior year period with broad-based consumption growth across channels. We saw a 15% growth in Pet Specialty, 30% in xAOC, and over 100% growth in the unmeasured channels.

第四季淨銷售額為 2.154 億美元，較去年同期成長 30%。尼爾森測算，與去年同期相比，美元成長率為 28%，各通路的消費成長基礎廣泛。我們看到寵物專業成長了 15%，xAOC 成長了 30%，未衡量管道成長了 100% 以上。

Fiscal 2023 net sales were $766.9 million, up 29% year-over-year. Nielsen measured dollar growth was 27% versus prior year, again, with broad-based consumption growth across all channels, with 18% growth in Pet Specialty, 29% in xAOC, and approximately 85% growth in the unmeasured channels.

2023 財年淨銷售額為 7.669 億美元，較去年同期成長 29%。尼爾森測算，與去年相比，美元成長率再次達到 27%，所有通路的消費均廣泛成長，其中寵物專業成長 18%，xAOC 成長 29%，未衡量通路成長約 85%。

Fourth quarter adjusted gross margin was 41.1%, up 810 basis points year-over-year. This was driven by leverage on plant costs as well as improvements across our key focus areas, including quality costs. Fiscal 2023 adjusted gross margin was up 400 basis points year-over-year to 40.0% driven by progress on our operational improvement plan.

第四季調整後毛利率為41.1%，較去年成長810個基點。這是由工廠成本槓桿以及我們關鍵重點領域（包括品質成本）的改進所推動的。由於營運改善計畫取得進展，2023 財年調整後毛利率年增 400 個基點至 40.0%。

Fourth quarter adjusted SG&A was 26.6% of net sales compared to 22.4% in the prior year period. We spent 6.3% of net sales on media in the quarter, up approximately $10 million from Q4 last year to help us get off to a fast start in 2024. We saw continued improvement in logistics costs, down to 6.3% of net sales, a decrease of 310 basis points compared to the prior year period.

第四季調整後的 SG&A 佔淨銷售額的 26.6%，去年同期為 22.4%。本季我們在媒體上的支出佔淨銷售額的6.3%，比去年第四季增加了約1,000 萬美元，幫助我們在2024 年快速起步。我們看到物流成本持續改善，下降至淨銷售額的6.3%，較去年同期下降310個基點。

Fiscal 2023 adjusted SG&A was 31.3% of net sales, down from 32.9% in the prior year period. Media spend for the year was 11.1% of net sales, up slightly from 10.5% from the prior year. Logistics costs were down to 7.5% of net sales, a 320 basis point improvement over the prior year.

2023 財年調整後的 SG&A 佔淨銷售額的 31.3%，低於去年同期的 32.9%。本年度媒體支出佔淨銷售額的 11.1%，略高於上年度的 10.5%。物流成本佔淨銷售額的比例下降至 7.5%，比上年提高了 320 個基點。

Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was $31.3 million or 14.5% of net sales compared to $18.7 million or 11.3% of net sales in the prior year period. This improvement exceeded our expectations and guidance and was driven by better-than-expected net sales and strong operating performance and cost of goods sold and logistics.

第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 3,130 萬美元，佔淨銷售額的 14.5%，而上年同期為 1,870 萬美元，佔淨銷售額的 11.3%。這項改善超越了我們的預期和指導，是由好於預期的淨銷售額以及強勁的經營業績以及銷售商品和物流成本推動的。

Fiscal 2023 adjusted EBITDA more than tripled year-over-year to $66.6 million or 8.7% of net sales. Capital spending for fiscal 2023 was $239.1 million in line with our expectations. Operating cash flow was $76 million, and we had cash on hand of $297 million at the end of the year.

2023 財年調整後 EBITDA 年成長兩倍多，達到 6,660 萬美元，佔淨銷售額的 8.7%。 2023 財年的資本支出為 2.391 億美元，符合我們的預期。營運現金流為 7,600 萬美元，年底我們手頭現金為 2.97 億美元。

We continue to believe that we have adequate cash to fully fund our growth through 2024, and we will be free cash flow positive in 2026. We also believe that we will have access to traditional non-dilutive forms of capital to bridge a gap in 2025 if it occurs.

我們仍然相信，我們有足夠的現金來為我們的成長提供充足的資金，直到2024 年，並且我們將在2026 年實現正自由現金流。我們也相信，我們將能夠獲得傳統的非稀釋形式的資本來彌補2025 年的缺口如果發生的話。

Now, turning to guidance for 2024. We expect net sales of at least $950 million driven by volume, and adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $100 million to $110 million. We expect capital expenditures of approximately $210 million to support the installation of capacity to meet demand in 2025, further fridge placements and ordinary maintenance.

現在，轉向 2024 年的指引。我們預計，在銷售的推動下，淨銷售額將至少達到 9.5 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 將在 1 億至 1.1 億美元之間。我們預計資本支出約為 2.1 億美元，用於支援產能安裝以滿足 2025 年的需求、進一步的冰箱安裝和日常維護。

It is important to understand that our growth rate directly impacts the capital we need to spend to build capacity. We are closely managing our cash balance, being very disciplined in our media spend and carefully managing sales growth while expanding capacity and increasing profitability. We exceeded our expectations for 2023, which is why the net sales growth rate of at least 24% is slightly below our long-term target of 25%. We do not want to get ahead of the capacity build that we are putting in place.

重要的是要了解我們的成長率直接影響我們建立能力所需的資本。我們密切管理現金餘額，嚴格控制媒體支出，謹慎管理銷售成長，同時擴大產能和提高獲利能力。我們超越了對 2023 年的預期，這就是為什麼至少 24% 的淨銷售額成長率略低於我們 25% 的長期目標。我們不想超越我們正在實施的能力建構。

In terms of cadence, we expect the fast start to the year based on strong momentum from 2023, with Q1 being the highest percentage net sales growth rate year-over-year. We expect to see sequentially lower net sales growth rates as we progress throughout the year as we manage our growth to deliver the right balance between growth and capital investment as we talked about earlier.

就節奏而言，我們預計基於 2023 年以來的強勁勢頭，今年將快速開局，其中第一季的淨銷售額同比增長率最高。正如我們之前談到的，隨著我們全年的進步，我們預計淨銷售額成長率將連續下降，因為我們管理成長以在成長和資本投資之間實現適當的平衡。

This should not be construed to imply that the business is slowing, quite the opposite. We are rigorously managing the timing and pace of our advertising investments to regulate the growth so that we can live within our capacity plans and carefully manage the cash required to build capacity.

這不應被理解為意味著業務正在放緩，恰恰相反。我們正在嚴格管理廣告投資的時間和節奏，以調節成長，以便我們能夠在我們的產能計劃內生活，並仔細管理建設產能所需的現金。

We want to deliver as close to our long-term target of 25% net sales growth over time so that we don't get too far ahead of our capacity expansion. We expect an adjusted gross margin expansion of at least 100 basis points, and the absolute gross margin percentage to be slightly higher in the second half of the year versus first half.

我們希望隨著時間的推移，實現盡可能接近 25% 淨銷售額成長的長期目標，這樣我們就不會在產能擴張方面走得太遠。我們預期調整後毛利率至少成長100個基點，下半年絕對毛利率將略高於上半年。

We will have some start-up costs on the third line in Ennis in Q1, and additional start costs on the fourth line in Ennis in Q4. At this point, we have about 70% of our commodity costs locked in for the year and currently expect modest deflation in 2024. We anticipate media to grow in line with sales, and we will pull back as necessary to control sales growth. Lastly, we expect sequential quarterly improvement in adjusted EBITDA.

我們將在第一季在恩尼斯的第三條生產線上產生一些啟動成本，並在第四季在恩尼斯的第四條生產線上產生額外的啟動成本。目前，我們已經鎖定了今年約 70% 的商品成本，目前預計 2024 年將出現溫和的通貨緊縮。我們預計媒體將隨著銷售的增長而增長，並且我們將根據需要撤資以控制銷售增長。最後，我們預期調整後的 EBITDA 將逐季有所改善。

Overall, we are proud of our 2023 results and believe we are in a strong position to deliver on our guidance with our momentum so far in 2024. With the actions we've taken and continued strong demand for our products, we remain confident in our ability to deliver on our fresh future plan and 2027 goals. We believe that when we look back a year or two from now, it will be apparent that 2023 was truly an inflection point for Freshpet in a fresh frozen category, and that Freshpet will be on its way to having a leading share in that segment and delivering the kinds of profits one would expect from the market leader in an emerging high-growth market.

總體而言，我們對2023 年的業績感到自豪，並相信我們有能力在2024 年以迄今為止的勢頭實現我們的指導。憑藉我們所採取的行動以及對我們產品的持續強勁需求，我們對我們的產品仍然充滿信心有能力實現我們新的未來計劃和 2027 年目標。我們相信，當我們一兩年後回顧時，很明顯，2023 年確實是 Freshpet 在新鮮冷凍類別中的一個轉折點，Freshpet 將在該領域佔據領先份額，並且提供人們期望從新興高增長市場的市場領導者那裡獲得的利潤。

That concludes our overview. We will now be glad to answer your questions. As a reminder, we ask that you please focus your questions on the quarter, the guidance and the company's operations. Operator?

我們的概述到此結束。我們現在很高興回答您的問題。謹此提醒，我們要求您將問題集中在季度、指引和公司營運上。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today is coming from the line of Rupesh Parikh with Oppenheimer.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自 Rupesh Parikh 和 Oppenheimer 的線路。

Congrats on a strong quarter. So maybe to start out, just on the gross margin line, very strong performance in Q4, and it sounds like you guys are guiding for at least a 100 basis point improvement this year.

恭喜季度表現強勁。因此，也許首先，就毛利率而言，第四季度的表現非常強勁，聽起來你們的指導方針是今年至少提高 100 個基點。

So maybe, Todd, if you can just walk through the puts and takes that you see on the gross margin line for the year?

托德，如果您可以瀏覽一下您在今年毛利率線上看到的看跌期權和看跌期權，也許會怎麼樣？

Are you talking about '24?

你說的是24號嗎？

Yes, correct. Yes.

是，對的。是的。

Yes. So as I mentioned in the opening remarks, we are going to see a little bit of deflation, that's our expectation right now in commodities. We obviously will have some inflation on our labor and overhead. But we're fortunate enough to lock in a fair amount of our commodities. Really nice rates right now. So we will see a reduction in our input costs.

是的。正如我在開場白中提到的，我們將看到一點通貨緊縮，這是我們目前對大宗商品的預期。顯然，我們的勞動力和管理費用將會出現一些通貨膨脹。但我們很幸運能夠鎖定相當數量的商品。現在的價格真的很優惠。因此，我們將看到投入成本的降低。

We anticipate quality costs, which we've made great progress on in '23. We will continue to see some improvements in '24, they're kind of the fixed cost, labor and overhead because we're still building out a couple of new lines in Ennis, we're not going to see any progress for '24 there, that's probably more of a '25, '26, it's really going to become lower input costs and improved quality are the main drivers.

我們預期品質成本，我們在 23 年在這方面取得了很大進展。我們將繼續看到 24 年的一些改進，它們是固定成本、勞動力和管理費用，因為我們仍在恩尼斯建造幾條新生產線，我們不會看到 24 年有任何進展在那裡，這可能更像是“25、26”，它確實會變得更低的投入成本和更高的品質是主要驅動力。

Great. And then maybe just one follow-up question. So it sounds like you guys are going to manage to your longer-term algorithm for the top line. Is there a way to help frame what your capacity is today and where you expect to end by the end of the year?

偉大的。然後也許只是一個後續問題。所以聽起來你們將設法採用長期演算法來獲得收入。有沒有辦法幫助確定您今天的能力以及您預計到年底的能力？

Yes, Rupesh. The way to think about this is that we have to be mindful, not just of overall capacity, but we also would be mindful of capacity by form. And so in this case, what we're really managing to is the Ennis Phase 2 first line is a roll line. So we'll be tight on capacity until that line comes up on the roll segment of the business. We're doing really well on the bag side, and so we're really trying to guide ourselves so we don't end up short shipping anything on the roll side prior to that line coming up and being able to find us the capacity. Once that's in place, we have a pretty good runway until sometime in '25, when the -- it will flip around and the tightness will come on the bag side and we're working very diligently to make sure that we have enough capacity to drive to accommodate the growth that we've got. But we're literally managing ourselves between each of these projects, rolls and bags, rolls and bags, so we can sustain the growth rate that we've got, but we don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves.

是的，魯佩什。思考這個問題的方法是，我們不僅要注意整體能力，還要注意形式的能力。因此，在這種情況下，我們真正要做的是恩尼斯二期的第一條生產線是滾動生產線。因此，在該生產線出現在業務的滾動部分之前，我們的產能將會緊張。我們在袋子方面做得非常好，所以我們真的在努力引導自己，這樣我們就不會在生產線出現並能夠找到我們的容量之前在捲筒方面運輸任何東西。一旦到位，我們就有了一條相當好的跑道，直到25 年的某個時候，那時——它會翻轉，袋子一側會變得緊繃，我們正在非常努力地工作，以確保我們有足夠的能力努力適應我們的成長。但我們實際上是在每個項目之間管理自己，捲和袋，捲和袋，這樣我們就可以維持現有的增長率，但我們不想走得太遠。

Yes. So right now, we have about $1 billion of total capacity. But as Billy mentioned, there's a little bit of a mismatch. We've got more in the back on the bag side versus the rolls. And then obviously, we need to get well above $1 billion as we get into '25. So it's really the back -- the rolls right now, it's causing us a little bit of an issue.

是的。目前，我們的總產能約為 10 億美元。但正如比利所提到的，存在一點不符。與捲筒相比，我們在袋子側面的背面有更多的東西。顯然，進入 25 年後，我們的收入需要遠遠超過 10 億美元。所以這實際上是後面的問題——現在的滾動，它給我們帶來了一些問題。

Our next question is from the line of Brian Holland with D.A. Davidson.

我們的下一個問題來自 Brian Holland 和 D.A.戴維森。

Quickly on media. Number came in higher than I was projecting in Q4, so I'm assuming that maybe it was a little bit higher than what you had communicated and maybe planned for prior to the quarter.

快速上媒體。數字高於我在第四季度的預測，因此我假設它可能比您在本季度之前傳達的和計劃的要高一些。

So just curious if there's anything there that you can speak to with respect to an opportunity that you saw? Or just any logic behind to the extent that you increased that number in Q4? And then also, just want to understand the variability of the media spend as we look out to fiscal '24, with what sort of time horizon can you pull back on that spend if needed?

所以只是好奇是否有任何關於您看到的機會可以談論的？或者只是您在第四季度增加這個數字背後的任何邏輯？然後，我想了解一下 24 財年媒體支出的變化情況，如果需要，您可以在什麼時間範圍內縮減該支出？

So I'll start off and I'll let Scott answer. So the media, we internally kind of planned that number for a while. We kind of hedged our bets a little bit. We weren't sure where the costs would come for the year. So we kind of kept some back, some dry powder back. But as we saw, the gross margins and the sales really do very, very well in Q4. We kind of released all that money. So internally, we planned that amount. But externally, we hedged our bets a little bit.

那我就開始吧，讓史考特來回答。所以對於媒體來說，我們在內部規劃了這個數字一段時間。我們有點對沖我們的賭注。我們不確定今年的費用會花在哪裡。所以我們保留了一些，一些乾粉。但正如我們所看到的，第四季的毛利率和銷售額確實非常非常好。我們釋放了所有這些錢。因此，我們在內部規劃了這個金額。但在外部，我們稍微對沖了我們的賭注。

But it's unusual that we spend that much in Q4, that this is a year where we actually had capacity so we ended up spending a little bit more in Q4 than we have historically. That gave us good momentum into Q1. We're seeing that come through both in consumer penetration and also in overall top line growth, especially in units and pounds.

但我們在第四季度支出這麼多是不尋常的，因為今年我們實際上有產能，所以我們最終在第四季度的支出比歷史上多了一點。這為我們進入第一季提供了良好的動力。我們看到消費者滲透率和整體收入成長（尤其是單位數和磅數）都實現了這一點。

And then your second part of your question was on how far out or how can we manage media. We can make, I would say, small adjustments within 30 days. We can make more significant changes and modifications, kind of 90 days out is typically how we think about it.

然後你問題的第二部分是關於我們管理媒體的程度或如何。我想說，我們可以在 30 天內進行小幅調整。我們可以做出更重大的改變和修改，我們通常會考慮 90 天。

And then just a follow-up on that. I guess the reason for the question is a lot of people asking about your ability to sort of counter to the trends in premium pet food that we've been seeing for quite a while now. And what might be behind that? Is there a lag effect? Does it ultimately catch up to you?

然後是後續行動。我想這個問題的原因是很多人問你是否有能力對抗我們已經看到很長一段時間的優質寵物食品的趨勢。這背後可能是什麼？有滯後效應嗎？它最終會追上你嗎？

So you're going to be at, I guess, north of or around about $100 million of media spend. I believe another big visible competitor in the space, the fresh frozen space is spending roughly the same, if not more.

因此，我猜您的媒體支出將超過或約為 1 億美元。我相信該領域的另一個重要競爭對手，新鮮冷凍領域的支出大致相同，甚至更多。

And I'm just curious if there's anything anecdotal that you are seeing or any data points you can refer to that might sort of crystallize whether we're at -- and you talked about 2023 being an inflection point for the business. And I'm wondering if it's been an inflection point for this subsegment of fresh/frozen in food is for sort of redefining premium. So I'm just curious what you've seen or what you can speak to that end.

我只是很好奇您是否看到了任何軼事或您可以參考的任何數據點，這些數據點可能會具體化我們是否處於 - 您談到 2023 年是業務的拐點。我想知道這是否是新鮮/冷凍食品細分市場重新定義溢價的轉折點。所以我只是好奇你看到了什麼或你能為此說些什麼。

Well, let me answer the kind of the -- in 2 sections. The first one, there has been, like I would say, a change in overall the category. We have not seen any impact like others have seen impact in the category with consumers changing their buying behavior. It's been really extraordinary. We're not seeing consumers trade down. We're seeing consumers come in very consistently. And you see that on the penetration growth, you see it on the growth around HIPPOHs, and we're also seeing it in our media productivity. Like one of the first signs you start to see is slowing penetration and your media not be as productive.

好吧，讓我分成兩部分來回答這個問題。第一個，就像我想說的，整個類別都改變了。我們還沒有看到任何像其他人看到的那樣的影響，因為消費者改變了他們的購買行為。這真的很了不起。我們沒有看到消費者降價購買。我們看到消費者的進來非常一致。你可以看到滲透率的成長、HIPPOH 周圍的成長以及我們的媒體生產力的成長。就像您開始看到的第一個跡像是滲透速度放緩，您的媒體生產力下降。

So we're not seeing any of those changes that I think has affected the rest of the category. And I don't anticipate them having any significant impact in this year, quite honestly. I mean, I think we're through the worst of those that impact over '23, I think you're going to see less than most of that over the course of '24.

因此，我們沒有看到任何我認為影響該類別其他產品的變化。老實說，我預計它們今年不會產生任何重大影響。我的意思是，我認為我們已經經歷了 23 年以來最糟糕的影響，我認為你在 24 年期間看到的情況會比大多數情況要少。

The second part of your question is, are we an inflection point from a consumer standpoint? And this is one of these things where we're moving something that's been set. A category that's been set for many, many years around dry and wet food and what people believe in the forms they feed and how they think about it. And what we've tried to tap into for a decade is that people know that they should be eating a fresher, healthier and less processed diet. I mean, you hear more and more about process foods.

你問題的第二部分是，從消費者的角度來看，我們是個轉捩點嗎？這是我們正在移動已設定的內容的其中之一。多年來，這個類別一直圍繞著乾糧和濕糧以及人們對他們所餵養的形式的看法以及他們的想法而設定。十年來我們一直試圖讓人們知道他們應該吃更新鮮、更健康、加工更少的飲食。我的意思是，您越來越多地聽到有關加工食品的資訊。

Now, whether they do it for themselves or not, that's one thing. Now, will they do it for their kids and "their pets," right? And we are seeing people become more and more aware of that and be willing to make the change. And everything that we're doing from a strategic standpoint, you're hearing us talk about turning this into more of a mainstream concept. So we talked about Rogers' diffusion innovation curve over time and how we think about pressing through that. We're starting to get into that early majority, but we're still kind of not even halfway through that early majority group.

現在，無論他們是否為自己做這件事，那是一回事。現在，他們會為他們的孩子和「他們的寵物」這樣做嗎？我們看到人們越來越意識到這一點並願意做出改變。從策略角度來看，我們所做的一切都是關於將其轉變為主流概念。因此，我們討論了羅傑斯隨時間推移的擴散創新曲線，以及我們如何考慮突破這一曲線。我們已經開始進入早期多數群體，但我們還沒有達到早期多數群體的一半。

So we do believe that there is a change going on in pet food. We do look at where when we used to be the small fridge, at the end of the aisle was for kind of the people that were like really kind of dog nuts in a way, now there's multiple fridges in an aisle. And I think it starts to make a statement. That's us making a statement in retail. Our availability being more broad, it makes a statement. And I think the way we're talking about it to the consumer from our advertising and communications makes a statement that this is a mainstream idea. So we do believe it's an inflection point, and it's been happening for many, many years.

所以我們確實相信寵物食品正在改變。我們確實看到了過去的小冰箱，在過道的盡頭是為那些在某種程度上真正像瘋子的人準備的，現在過道裡有多個冰箱。我認為它開始發表聲明。這是我們在零售業發表的聲明。我們的可用性更加廣泛，這是一個聲明。我認為我們透過廣告和傳播向消費者談論它的方式表明這是一個主流想法。所以我們確實相信這是一個拐點，而且它已經發生了很多很多年。

Our next question is from the line of Ken Goldman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的肯‧戈德曼。

I just wanted to get a little bit better sense of how to think of capacity -- or sorry, CapEx between now and sort of your target year, I guess, longer term of 2027? I think previously, you'd sort of guided to maybe $250 million a year in '25 and '26. I don't know if you've officially kind of addressed or updated those numbers since maybe CAGNY of '23, if I have -- or if you have, I missed it. I'm just trying to get a better sense as you kind of think of the rollout of certain plants and demand and some efficiencies you've created, whether those are kind of rough numbers to factor in, in light of the $210 million this year so.

我只是想更了解如何考慮產能——或者抱歉，從現在到你的目標年份之間的資本支出，我想是 2027 年的長期目標？我想以前，你會在 25 年和 26 年指導每年 2.5 億美元。我不知道自 23 年 CAGNY 以來，您是否已經正式解決或更新了這些數字，如果我有，或者如果您有，我錯過了。我只是想更好地了解您對某些工廠的推出以及您所創造的需求和效率的看法，考慮到今年的 2.1 億美元，這些是否是需要考慮的粗略數字。

Yes. So the numbers continue to be fluid. Look, we try to optimize consistently how we're spending and the timing of it all and where we're putting the investment. I think right now, we have not given updates officially. I think the way I think of it is it's going to be over the next several years. Somewhere in that $200 million to $240 million range per year. still too early to talk about with exactly what the '25 number is. We're still making some final decisions there. But I think that $200 million to $240 million is probably a pretty good estimate at this point.

是的。因此，這些數字仍然不穩定。看，我們試圖持續優化我們的支出方式、時間安排以及投資的方向。我想現在我們還沒有正式發布更新。我認為我的想法是未來幾年都會如此。每年 2 億至 2.4 億美元之間。現在談論「25」這個數字到底是什麼還為時過早。我們仍在那裡做出一些最終決定。但我認為目前 2 億至 2.4 億美元可能是相當不錯的估計。

All right. And then just a follow-up. I think it was Brian's question on media spend. Forgive me if it wasn't. But I wanted to get a better sense of the maximum flexibility you had this year, right? And sort of that balance you have between the desire to building the brand over the long term and also not getting ahead of yourself on capacity -- organizational capacity and your capacity to actually produce products.

好的。然後只是後續行動。我認為這是布萊恩關於媒體支出的問題。如果不是的話請原諒我。但我想更了解今年你們所擁有的最大彈性，對吧？在長期打造品牌的願望與能力（組織能力和實際生產產品的能力）方面不要超越自己之間要保持某種平衡。

Is there kind of a minimum media number you'd want to spend for the year in terms of dollars? Or is that not really the right way to think about it?

今年您想在媒體上花費的最低金額是否有（以美元計）？或者這不是正確的思考方式？

Ken, so we typically guided to increasing our media in line with sales. Our long-term target is to be ultimately at 9% of sales. So as we see situations where our growth is running a little hot and we need to manage within capacity, we would meter ourselves back, heading towards that 9% to see how quickly we can get to that 9% level. I don't foresee a circumstance in this year or next year where we would drop below 9%. I don't see that being the case. But that's really the guidepost, it's sort of the 9% to 11% range is sort of where we're trading in.

肯，所以我們通常會根據銷售量來增加我們的媒體。我們的長期目標是最終達到銷售額的 9%。因此，當我們看到成長有點過熱並且需要在能力範圍內進行管理時，我們會衡量自己，朝著 9% 的方向前進，看看我們能多快達到 9% 的水平。我預計今年或明年我們的成長率不會低於 9%。我不認為情況是這樣。但這確實是路標，9% 到 11% 的範圍就是我們交易的範圍。

Our next question is from the line of Peter Benedict with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自彼得·本尼迪克特和​​貝爾德。

Maybe, Scott, back to you on the consumer behavior. Now, you said you hadn't seen much change at all. But maybe pull back a little bit, within your portfolio of products that you have, maybe how consumers are responding to the innovation, to the additional SKUs that you guys alluded to per store. Just kind of curious on that and how, you know, pricing -- next year's growth is going to be mainly volume. But how do you think about pricing and more about mix as you think about 2024? That's my first question.

也許，史考特，回到你關於消費者行為的話題。現在，你說你根本沒有看到太大的改變。但也許可以稍微退一步，在你擁有的產品組合中，也許消費者對創新、對你們提到的每家商店的額外 SKU 有何反應。只是有點好奇這個以及如何定價——明年的增長將主要是銷售。但當您展望 2024 年時，您如何看待定價和產品組合？這是我的第一個問題。

Yes. So Peter, it has been a very interesting period in the industry where I think more people have quoted impacts around changes in the portfolio and people trading down, people moving to some private label products. And there has been a little bit of a shift in the category overall.

是的。 Peter，這是行業中一個非常有趣的時期，我認為更多的人引用了投資組合變化的影響，人們進行了​​降價交易，人們轉向了一些自有品牌產品。總體而言，該類別發生了一些變化。

We really have not seen that at all. We haven't seen any significant effect in our business whatsoever around that. So I mean, I know that it's been very topical. But I would say, everything that we've kind of set out and planned, it's -- we are amazingly in line and consistent with our plans and how the overall model is performing. We just have not seen those mix changes.

我們真的根本沒有看到這一點。我們還沒有看到這對我們的業務產生任何重大影響。所以我的意思是，我知道這非常熱門。但我想說，我們所製定和計劃的一切，我們都非常符合我們的計劃以及整個模型的表現。我們只是還沒看到這些組合的變化。

On the new product front, we have products on both ends of the spectrum from the new product standpoint. And what I mean by that is we have things on the highest end of our kind of cost of feed per day, and some things that are more cost effective to feed per day, both of them are performing and growing quite well. Some of them are performing better in different formats than others. Like in mass, we're seeing a little bit more growth on some of the more cost-effective products. And again, that are margin neutral for us internally. And -- but we're also seeing good growth on some of the products that are on the very high end.

在新產品方面，從新產品的角度來看，我們在兩端都有產品。我的意思是，我們每天的飼料成本最高，還有一些每天餵養的成本效益更高，它們的表現和生長都非常好。其中一些在不同格式下的表現比其他格式更好。與大眾一樣，我們看到一些更具成本效益的產品出現了更多的成長。再說一次，這對我們內部來說是中性的。而且，我們也看到一些非常高端的產品出現了良好的成長。

So I think it's super encouraging that, that's what we're seeing, and that's dynamic and the behavior that we're seeing from consumers at this point.

所以我認為這是非常令人鼓舞的，這就是我們所看到的，這是動態的，也是我們目前從消費者那裡看到的行為。

No, for sure. That's good color. And then just a question on the broader category. I mean, you guys are 96% of the measured category. But maybe give us a sense of where you guys think the broader fresh/frozen category may be today? What kind of growth you would expect out of that of the category over the next few years? And just the competitive dynamics, there's a lot of folks that have been coming in and then they start to cycle out, we've seen various levels of success. So just kind of curious your broad view of the category.

不，當然。這顏色真好啊然後是一個關於更廣泛類別的問題。我的意思是，你們屬於被測類別的 96%。但也許可以讓我們了解一下你們認為當今更廣泛的新鮮/冷凍類別可能處於什麼位置？您預計該類別在未來幾年會有什麼樣的成長？就競爭動態而言，有很多人進來，然後開始循環出去，我們看到了不同程度的成功。所以只是有點好奇你對該類別的廣泛看法。

Look, I think that we set out to do this a long time ago over -- well over a decade ago, we set out to really build Freshpet food. I think that there have been a lot of people that are kind of coming in behind us. I think we're very fortunate in the way we've constructed our business to still have around 96% of the total fresh/frozen that's sold in Brick-and-Mortar. Obviously, we know that there's a nice piece of direct-to-consumer business. It's a very, very different model and a different offering. And I think they've done a really nice job building those pieces, but it has not inhibited our ability to grow. And we think that when we look at our model and how it's constructed and where the opportunity is, we continue to think that -- we talked about a TAM of 43 million households. We're currently at almost 11.7 million, 11.8 million households. We know that there is a long, long way to go and a lot of opportunity. That's on the penetration piece.

看，我認為我們很久以前就開始這樣做了——十多年前，我們就開始真正生產 Freshpet 食品。我認為有很多人在支持我們。我認為我們非常幸運，我們的業務建構方式仍然佔實體店銷售總量的 96% 左右。顯然，我們知道直接面向消費者的業務非常好。這是一個非常非常不同的模式和不同的產品。我認為他們在建構這些方面做得非常好，但這並沒有抑制我們的成長能力。我們認為，當我們審視我們的模型及其構建方式以及機會在哪裡時，我們會繼續思考——我們談論的是 4300 萬個家庭的 TAM。目前我們有近 1,170 萬、1,180 萬個家庭。我們知道，還有很長的路要走，也有很多機會。那是在穿透件上。

On the buy rate, I think as we've covered before, we think there's an opportunity to literally, over a long period of time, over -- probably double our buy rate, and that's over a long period of time. Within 2027, I think we had $127 kind of buy rate, it's the one we have penciled in. So that's kind of been our plan. Today, we're at $96, and we're going towards like that $127 type number.

關於購買率，我認為正如我們之前所討論的那樣，我們認為在很長一段時間內，我們確實有機會將我們的購買率翻倍，而且這是在很長一段時間內。到 2027 年，我認為我們的購買率是 127 美元，這是我們已經計劃好的。所以這就是我們的計劃。今天，我們的價格是 96 美元，我們的目標是 127 美元。

I think what you're starting to see is we talked a lot about the super heavy heavies or the HIPPOH consumers that are coming into our business, and that's been our focus. We think there is the opportunity to really continue to improve buyer rate over time.

我想你開始看到的是我們談論了很多關於進入我們業務的超重型重量級或 HIPPOH 消費者，這一直是我們的重點。我們認為隨著時間的推移，有機會真正繼續提高買家率。

So I think on both pieces, on both fronts, I think there's a lot of opportunity. The category is changing. It's been a fascinating time, and I think it will be a really interesting next couple of years to see how it plays out.

所以我認為在這兩方面，在兩方面，我認為都有很多機會。類別正在改變。這是一段令人著迷的時光，我認為接下來的幾年將會非常有趣，看看它會如何發展。

Next question is from the line of Mark Astrachan with Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Mark Astrachan 和 Stifel。

I guess, firstly, on HIPPOH growth. it's exceeded household penetration now, I guess, the last couple of years, especially in '23, if my math is right, nearly 30% versus overall household penetration just under [20%]. I guess, maybe talk about the life cycle and conversion of those HIPPOH consumers from first consumption of the category or from the brand into a HIPPOH, and kind of how do you think about the opportunity of those that are casually using today? Can you accelerate that adoption? Do you need to bring in more consumers to the category? Sort of what do you see around those that really become HIPPOHs and those that drop off? That's the first question.

我想，首先是 HIPPOH 的成長。我想，過去幾年，尤其是在 23 年，如果我的數學正確的話，它現在已經超過了家庭滲透率，接近 30%，而整體家庭滲透率略低於 [20%]。我想，也許可以談談那些 HIPPOH 消費者從第一次消費該類別或從該品牌到 HIPPOH 的生命週期和轉變，以及您如何看待今天隨意使用的那些人的機會？你能加速這種採用嗎？您需要吸引更多消費者加入該類別嗎？您對那些真正成為 HIPPOH 的人和那些逐漸消失的人有何看法？這是第一個問題。

Yes. So it's -- thanks for that question. If you look at our total increase of consumers last year, it was about 1.8 million households that we added. On the HIPPOHs, we grew that group by not over 900,000. So when you're growing your best consumer by like a significant amount, you quoted the number of 29% or 30% versus prior year, so great growth rate there. But it's becoming a huge piece of the developing business. And I think, literally, Mark, just by getting our fundamentals correct, being in stock consistently, which we've had trouble over the last couple of years, but we do not anymore, being in stock consistently and having incredible quality, great consumer experiences, continuing to bring innovation in the category, broader availability and also being available from -- on a kind of an online or e-commerce type perspective, where people can literally go on their phone or computer and order us, making it easier and more accessible for consumers, those are all ways to really make it easier and facilitate HIPPOHs.

是的。所以，謝謝你提出這個問題。如果你看去年我們增加的消費者總數，我們增加了大約180萬戶家庭。在 HIPPOH 上，我們的人數增加了不超過 900,000。因此，當您大幅增加最佳消費者時，您引用的數字與去年相比為 29% 或 30%，成長率非常高。但它正在成為發展中業務的重要組成部分。我認為，從字面上看，馬克，只要我們的基本面正確，持續有庫存，這在過去幾年裡我們遇到了麻煩，但我們不再這樣做了，持續有庫存，擁有令人難以置信的質量，偉大的消費者體驗，繼續帶來該類別的創新，更廣泛的可用性，並且還可以從在線或電子商務類型的角度獲得，人們可以通過手機或電腦向我們訂購，從而使其變得更容易且更容易對消費者來說更容易獲得，這些都是真正讓事情變得更容易並促進 HIPPOH 的方法。

Now, we see them come from 2 parts. One of them is some -- there's groups of consumers that literally come in and they immediately become HIPPOHs within 3 to 6 months. They've just changed and that's their dog food. The other group that we see come in and become HIPPOHs are people that use it as a topper and mix, and mix more, and mix more, and mix more, and literally start moving down the dry and up the fresh. And it's a different mindset because those people are replacing fresh with what was a wet behavior in the category, where a lot of people use wet food don't feed it exclusively, they mix it on top of dry. Well, with fresh, you can use it as your core and main meal.

現在，我們看到它們來自兩個部分。其中之一是一些——有一群消費者真正進來，他們在 3 到 6 個月內立即成為 HIPPOH。他們剛剛改變了，那是他們的狗糧。我們看到的另一群人進來並成為 HIPPOH，他們使用它作為配料並混合，混合更多，混合更多，混合更多，實際上開始從乾的向上移動到新鮮的。這是一種不同的心態，因為這些人正在用該類別中的濕食物代替新鮮食物，許多人使用濕食物而不是專門餵養牠，他們將其混合在乾食物之上。那麼，有了新鮮，你就可以把它當作你的核心和主餐了。

So we see that, the HIPPOHs coming from 2 different groups. And I believe that explaining it to people, seeding the thought and just having our fundamentals correct is what will kind of help that over time.

所以我們看到，HIPPOH 來自兩個不同的群體。我相信，隨著時間的推移，向人們解釋這一點，傳播思想，並保持我們的基本原理正確，將會有所幫助。

Got it. That's helpful. And then -- going back to, I think it was Ken's question, Todd, for yield. I guess, I was surprised at the CapEx guidance sort of remaining the same and maybe it's sort of the leading mix of the question. But you talked a lot about maximizing the output of existing lines adding capacity to the existing site, the Bethlehem example, I don't think one was previously planned a few years ago, and now you have a new line. You're also developing new, more efficient technologies.

知道了。這很有幫助。然後，回到托德，我認為這是肯的問題，關於產量。我想，我對資本支出指導保持不變感到驚訝，也許這是問題的主要組合。但是你談到了很多關於最大化現有線路的輸出，增加現有站點的容量，伯利恆的例子，我不認為幾年前就已經計劃好了，現在你有了一條新線路。您還在開發新的、更有效率的技術。

So all of that being said, why are you still spending the same on CapEx? And I guess maybe the answer is that you're going to have more output than you originally expected? Or is it less costly? I mean, I guess, kind of bridge that for me, please?

話雖如此，為什麼你們在資本支出上仍然花費同樣的錢呢？我想也許答案是你的產出會比你原先預期的多？或成本更低？我的意思是，我想，這對我來說是一種橋樑，好嗎？

Yes, Mark, this is Billy. So first of all, there's a little bit of a timing difference here. So the capital spending that we're doing between '25, '26, '27 really has impact on the sales levels that we'll have in '26, '27 and '28. So there's a little bit of a timing lag here.

是的，馬克，這是比利。首先，這裡有一點時間上的差異。因此，我們在 25 年、26 年和 27 年之間進行的資本支出確實對我們在 26 年、27 年和 28 年的銷售水準產生了影響。所以這裡有一點時間延遲。

Second is the technology that we alluded to. We are very bullish on it, but we have not assumed any benefit from that in our long-term plan. So we have the spending there for it, but we necessarily have the guarantee that we're going to get the higher level of throughput and efficiency we get.

其次是我們提到的技術。我們非常看好它，但在我們的長期計劃中並沒有假設從中受益。因此，我們有相應的支出，但我們必須保證我們將獲得更高水準的吞吐量和效率。

If we do, it's gravy to us. It's improvement in the economics. And the same could be said of the improved operating effectiveness. We're very bullish on the work that's been done. And if we do get the benefits that we're talking about, then we are going to be -- we're going to have enough capacity to ramp the growth better or push more CapEx out. But at the same time, we just did not want to make the assumption that those benefits were going to come through. If they do, that's a net benefit to us. We're just being very cautious about planning capacity going forward.

如果我們這樣做了，這對我們來說就是肉汁。這是經濟方面的進步。營運效率的提高也是如此。我們對已經完成的工作非常樂觀。如果我們確實獲得了我們所說的好處，那麼我們將有足夠的能力來更好地促進成長或推出更多資本支出。但同時，我們只是不想假設這些好處將會實現。如果他們這樣做，這對我們來說就是淨收益。我們只是對未來的容量規劃非常謹慎。

Our next question is from the line of Jon Andersen with William Blair.

我們的下一個問題來自喬恩·安德森和威廉·布萊爾。

Quick question on the sales outlook for 2024. We talked about 24% growth, largely volume-driven. How should we think about the mix a couple of different ways? You haven't really referenced your expectations for fridge placement growth or store growth, at least if you did, I apologize if I missed it. If you could talk a little bit about your expectations there for distribution growth through additional fridge placements.

關於 2024 年銷售前景的快速問題。我們談到了 24% 的成長，主要是由銷售驅動的。我們應該如何考慮幾種不同方式的混合？您還沒有真正提到您對冰箱放置增長或商店增長的期望，至少如果您這樣做了，如果我錯過了，我深表歉意。您可以談談您對透過額外冰箱放置來實現分銷成長的期望嗎？

And then from a channel perspective, non-measured grew substantially faster than measured in '23. Is that a dynamic that you would expect to persist in 2024 as well, and why?

然後從通路角度來看，23 年非衡量成長速度明顯快於衡量成長。您預計這種動態在 2024 年也會持續嗎？為什麼？

Yes. Let me touch on this, I'm sure Billy might add to it. But I look at this a lot, and I think it's interesting. And I'll try and be brief, but just from a perspective standpoint.

是的。讓我談談這一點，我相信比利可能會補充這一點。但我經常看這個，我認為這很有趣。我會盡量簡短，但只是從一個角度來看。

Today, let me talk about grocery for a second first. So in grocery, we're 72% ACV, and we're by far the #1 brand. All the other #1 brands are in the 90s from an ACV standpoint, right? And that and that's typically in 4 feet. So across grocery, we have 2,000 coolers, 2,000 double coolers, 2,000 stores with double coolers. So you start thinking about that, like there's upside in ACV, but think about the upside on the double cooler standpoint, especially because we are the leading brand in total, right, in total dollar sales we're the leading brand in grocery, and we only have 4 feet in most stores. That -- I mean that's pretty extraordinary opportunity sitting in front of us. And when we do add that, that gives us opportunity to add a wider variety of SKUs, have increased presence in aisle. So it's pretty amazing.

今天，我先來談談雜貨。因此，在雜貨店，我們使用了 72% ACV，並且是迄今為止排名第一的品牌。從 ACV 的角度來看，所有其他排名第一的品牌都處於 90 年代，對嗎？通常以 4 英尺為單位。因此，在雜貨店，我們有 2,000 個冷藏櫃、2,000 個雙冷藏櫃、2,000 個配備雙冷藏櫃的商店。所以你開始思考這一點，例如蘋果醋有上行空間，但考慮一下雙冷卻器的上行空間，特別是因為我們是總銷售額的領先品牌，對吧，就總銷售額而言，我們是雜貨領域的領先品牌，並且大多數商店只有 4 英尺。我的意思是，這是擺在我們面前的非常難得的機會。當我們加入這一點時，我們就有機會增加更多種類的 SKU，增加過道的存在。所以這真是太神奇了。

Like now, switch to mass for a second. In total mass, we have 200 double coolers that's across Walmart and Target. So the opportunity there is pretty amazing, too. So we have around 80% distribution in mass. But we have very few double coolers. So we think that the opportunity is not only on the ACV side, but on the double cooler side, that gives us broader visibility in aisle. It gives us more TDPs, more of variety of products.

就像現在一樣，暫時切換到品質。總體而言，我們在沃爾瑪和塔吉特擁有 200 個雙冷藏箱。所以那裡的機會也是相當驚人的。所以我們的質量分佈約為 80%。但我們的雙冷卻器很少。因此，我們認為機會不僅存在於 ACV 方面，還存在於雙冷卻器方面，這使我們在過道中擁有更廣闊的視野。它為我們提供了更多的 TDP、更多種類的產品。

And the other thing that's importantly in a lot of these stores, more holding power because over the course of a weekend, especially on some of our key SKUs, they're constantly out of stock. And if we can add a second fridge, it allows us to have more holding power on some of those.

對於許多這樣的商店來說，另一件事很重要，那就是保持力更強，因為在周末期間，尤其是我們的一些關鍵 SKU，它們經常缺貨。如果我們可以添加第二台冰箱，我們就可以對其中一些冰箱有更多的保存能力。

So add all that with developing online, which we touched on a few minutes ago, Canada being years behind the U.K. opportunity, et cetera, it's pretty -- we feel terrific about the opportunity from an ACV standpoint.

因此，加上我們幾分鐘前談到的線上開發，加拿大的機會落後於英國好幾年等等，從 ACV 的角度來看，我們對這個機會感到非常棒。

Now all that being said, the majority of our model is driven by same-store sales. We typically see high teens and up to low 20% same-store sales growth with like existing stores, existing coolers. So that's the core of it. It's driven by the advertising, but there's so much upside from an ACV and a growth from a cooler standpoint.

話雖如此，我們的大部分模式都是由同店銷售所驅動的。我們通常會看到現有商店、現有冷藏箱的同店銷售額成長率高達 10%，最高可達 20%。這就是它的核心。它是由廣告驅動的，但 ACV 有很多好處，從更酷的角度來看也有成長。

But you talked about...

但你談到...

Actually -- Jon, just one other thing on the unmeasured versus measured. We are expecting to have unmeasured growth that would add about 3 point store growth in 2024, I call it at least 3 points. It was heavier than that in the fourth quarter, as you can obviously see. We're in an awful lot of Costcos at this point. We'll continue to see the benefit of that, particularly in the first half. It won't be quite as strong in the second half of the year as we lack the performance we had in the second half of '23.

事實上——喬恩，這只是關於未衡量與衡量的另一件事。我們預計到 2024 年將出現無法衡量的成長，商店成長率將增加約 3 個百分點，我稱之為至少 3 個百分點。正如你可以明顯看到的那樣，它比第四季度更重。現在我們已經進了很多 Costco。我們將繼續看到這樣做的好處，特別是在上半年。今年下半年不會那麼強勁，因為我們缺乏 23 年下半年的表現。

The next question is from the line of Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。

So just wanted to follow up on one quick point. I think you just mentioned it in response to the last question, in terms of just out of stocks on key SKUs. Can you just update us now on sort of where you stand on in-stock levels on a regular basis? And I guess, what I'm really trying to drive at is, are out-of-stocks still impacting sales growth, right? Meaning, are you still leaving some on the table because you're out of stock in key periods on key SKUs?

所以只想快速跟進一個問題。我想您剛剛在回答最後一個問題時提到了關鍵 SKU 缺貨的問題。現在您可以定期向我們介紹一下您的庫存水準嗎？我想，我真正想要推動的是，缺貨仍然影響銷售成長，對嗎？意思是，您是否仍會因為關鍵 SKU 在關鍵時期缺貨而留下一些庫存？

Yes. Bryan, if there are out of stocks at retail, it's a function of the high velocity in that store and the store's inability to keep the fridge stocked at an adequate level. Our actual shipments to our customers, we've been running in the 98%, 99% fill rates very consistently since the beginning of this year, actually, even in the last back part of the fourth quarter of last year. And so there's not an issue with our shipments or supplying to the customers. It's really a matter of how well the stores execute on the replenishment of the fridges.

是的。布萊恩，如果零售店缺貨，那是因為商店的流通速度快，而且商店無法將冰箱的庫存保持在充足的水平。我們向客戶的實際發貨量，自今年年初以來一直保持著 98%、99% 的填充率，實際上，甚至在去年第四季的最後一段時間也是如此。因此，我們的運輸或向客戶的供應不存在問題。這實際上是商店在冰箱補貨方面執行得如何的問題。

Our next question is from the line of Bill Chappell with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Bill Chappell。

Billy, Scott, just kind of asking it a different way, why isn't CapEx going to be greater over the next year or 2? I mean, I guess going back to the original IPO, the thought was, we're going to build out Bethlehem, and then we're going to add one in the Midwest, and then maybe we'll add another facility on the West Coast as more and more demand gets there. And you just talked about this year being an inflection point, how you're kind of going mainstream, how you could be 40 million households even before we get to U.K. and Canada.

比利、史考特，只是換個方式問一下，為什麼資本支出在未來一兩年不會增加？我的意思是，我想回到最初的 IPO，我們的想法是，我們要建造伯利恆，然後我們要在中西部增加一個設施，然後也許我們會在西部增加另一個設施隨著越來越多的需求到達那裡。你剛才談到今年是一個轉捩點，你將如何成為主流，甚至在我們到達英國和加拿大之前你將如何成為 4000 萬個家庭。

Why aren't we talking about another facility or somebody on the West Coast or stepping things up? And I understand things and you've been more conservative on the existing, but if we're now at an inflection point, why aren't we talking about the future?

為什麼我們不談論西海岸的另一個設施或某人或加強行動？我理解事情，你對現有的情況更加保守，但如果我們現在正處於轉折點，為什麼我們不談論未來呢？

Bill, it's a good question. First of all, as we described in the prepared comments, the 3 things that we're doing to maximize the throughput on our existing footprint. So first is on the existing lines, drive up the OEs.

比爾，這是個好問題。首先，正如我們在準備好的評論中所描述的，我們正在做的三件事是為了最大限度地提高現有足跡的吞吐量。因此，首先是在現有的生產線上，提高原廠設備的數量。

The second part is on each of our sites, find ways to get more lines in them so we avoid having to construct all the infrastructure. Think of that as wastewater treatment facility, central utilities, loading docks and whatnot. And the third part is investing in new technologies.

第二部分是在我們的每個網站上，找到在其中添加更多線路的方法，這樣我們就不必建造所有基礎設施。可視為廢水處理設施、中央公用設施、裝卸碼頭等。第三部分是投資新技術。

Our assessment based on what we know today is that, that infrastructure that we've got within the normal technologies we have planned can allow us to meet our growth goals all the way out until almost 2029 at this point if we maintain our growth at, call it, the 25% rate.

根據我們今天所了解的情況，我們的評估是，如果我們保持成長，我們在正常技術範圍內擁有的基礎設施可以讓我們一直實現成長目標，直到 2029 年為止，稱之為 25% 的利率。

The question then could be why wouldn't you want to go faster? And our comment on that has been, we have found, we execute very well at around the 25% growth rate level, meaning engineering, staffing, organizational capability, design, construct and start of facilities, the ability to hire and train people. And if we were to push ahead and grow at an even faster rate, we think we might get ourselves in a little bit of executional trouble. And so we prefer to stay at that rate. And so if we stay at that rate, our existing footprint will meet our needs, we believe, until about 2029 at which point we would need to look at another site if some -- if we haven't had another -- some other technology change or any other form of intervention.

那麼問題可能是你為什麼不想走得更快呢？我們對此的評論是，我們發現，我們在25% 左右的成長率水準上執行得非常好，這意味著工程、人員配備、組織能力、設施的設計、建造和啟動、僱用和培訓人員的能力。如果我們要繼續前進並以更快的速度成長，我們認為我們可能會遇到一些執行上的麻煩。所以我們更願意維持這個速度。因此，如果我們保持這個速度，我們相信，到2029 年左右，我們現有的足跡將滿足我們的需求，屆時我們將需要考慮另一個站點，如果有一些——如果我們沒有另一個站點——一些其他技術改變或任何其他形式的干預。

Got it. And I guess kind of related, does that kind of put international somewhat on the backburner for the foreseeable future? Because I know, you feel like there's still opportunity in Canada and the U.K. and other places in Europe. But you're going to be capacity constrained just to meet your existing needs in the U.S. So is that kind of the way I should be looking at it? Or would there be some additional CapEx if you saw the international starting to tip?

知道了。我想這與此有關，在可預見的未來，這是否會在某種程度上將國際化置於次要地位？因為我知道，你覺得加拿大、英國和歐洲其他地方仍然有機會。但是，僅僅為了滿足您在美國的現有需求，您的容量就會受到限制。那麼我應該這樣看待它嗎？或者，如果您看到國際航班開始小費，是否會有一些額外的資本支出？

Yes. Bill, I should have put an asterisk behind that. All that was very focused on the North American business. We've concluded over the last couple of years that our European business is very robust and it's a very good opportunity. But supplying the business from the U.S. was not the most reliable. It wasn't really a cost issue. It's more of a reliability issue. So we are in development on alternatives that would give us a more reliable source of supply coming out of Europe. But we have been very clear that if we were to do that, it would not be a greenfield operation on our own part. We would find a partner to do that with. And so we don't want to get any further than saying that. But suffice it to say, if we were to go down that path, it would be much, much lighter on the capital than what we are doing to build out greenfield operations in the U.S.

是的。比爾，我應該在後面加一個星號。所有這些都非常關注北美業務。過去幾年我們得出的結論是，我們的歐洲業務非常強勁，這是一個非常好的機會。但從美國供應業務並不是最可靠的。這其實並不是一個成本問題。這更多的是可靠性問題。因此，我們正在開發替代方案，為我們提供來自歐洲的更可靠的供應來源。但我們非常清楚，如果我們這樣做，對我們來說就不是一次綠地行動。我們會找到一個合作夥伴來做到這一點。所以我們不想再多說了。但我只想說，如果我們沿著這條路走下去，對資本的影響將比我們在美國建立綠地業務的情況輕得多。

Next question is from the line of Michael Lavery with Piper Sandler.

下一個問題來自 Michael Lavery 和 Piper Sandler。

You've touched on some of the ways you're looking at better technology for efficiency and adding stuffing lines anywhere you can in the place that you have. But can you give us a sense of how much opportunity there could be from longer run times and just having a way to reduce changeovers? Is that something that could also have an impact? And if so, how achievable or how within reach could that be?

您已經談到了一些方法，您正在尋找更好的技術來提高效率，並在您擁有的任何地方添加餡料生產線。但是您能否讓我們了解更長的運行時間以及減少轉換的方法可以帶來多少機會？這是否也會產生影響？如果是這樣，那麼它的實現程度或可及性如何？

Yes. Michael, it's a really interesting point because we started up in Ennis, the second bag line in the fourth quarter of last year, and it's now running at a -- not full time, but it's running at a pretty good rate. And we're starting to see some of the benefit that you're describing because now that we don't have to produce the entire product lineup of bags on a single line, which forces you do lots and lots of changeovers, that second line is much, much more productive. We're expecting to see a similar benefit when we start up the second rolls line in Ennis, and we already get that benefit in Pennsylvania because we have 6 lines in Pennsylvania, and we use them very judiciously, the high-speed lines run long and deep runs, and the smaller lines run lots of changeovers.

是的。邁克爾，這是一個非常有趣的點，因為我們去年第四季度在恩尼斯啟動了第二條箱包生產線，現在它不是全職運行，但運行速度相當不錯。我們開始看到您所描述的一些好處，因為現在我們不必在一條生產線上生產整個袋子產品系列，這迫使您進行大量的轉換，第二條生產線生產力要高得多。當我們在恩尼斯啟動第二條生產線時，我們預計會看到類似的好處，而且我們已經在賓夕法尼亞州獲得了這種好處，因為我們在賓夕法尼亞州有6 條生產線，而且我們非常明智地使用它們，高速線運行時間很長且深度運行，較小的線路運行大量轉換。

And so our belief is that as we build out the Ennis site and we get enough lines so we could be more and more specialized, we think we're going to see a very significant benefit from that. It is not modeled into our forecast going forward, but we are already seeing early indications of that based on the start-up of the second bag line in Ennis.

因此，我們相信，當我們建立 Ennis 網站並獲得足夠的線路時，我們可以變得越來越專業，我們認為我們將從中看到非常顯著的好處。它並未納入我們未來的預測中，但我們已經從恩尼斯第二條袋子生產線的啟動中看到了早期跡象。

Yes. So Michael, just to follow up on that. Today, we have 12 lines in operations, 6 in Bethlehem, 3 in Ennis, 3 in our Kitchen South facility. Fast forward a couple of years, we'll have over 20 lines. So to Billy's point, you can imagine there'll be certain lines that will be just dedicated to just 1 or 2 SKUs literally. And then the efficiency that we will get off of that, we believe there's a tremendous amount of upside. And we're constantly looking at the SKU mix to make sure they're optimizing the portfolio as well to not put under burden the facilities. But we're seeing some early signs of the benefit of having that extra capacity, and we think there's more to come.

是的。邁克爾，我想跟進一下。如今，我們有 12 條生產線投入運營，其中 6 條位於伯利恆，3 條位於恩尼斯，3 條位於廚房南工廠。快進幾年，我們將擁有 20 多條生產線。因此，就 Billy 的觀點而言，您可以想像會有某些產品線實際上只專注於 1 或 2 個 SKU。然後我們將由此獲得的效率，我們相信有巨大的上升空間。我們不斷關注 SKU 組合，以確保他們也在優化產品組合，以免給設施帶來負擔。但我們已經看到了一些早期跡象表明擁有額外容量的好處，並且我們認為還會有更多的好處。

And that is a benefit that you said you haven't modeled in, in terms of how you've given any of your targets or as going forward?

這是您所說的您尚未效仿的好處，就您如何設定目標或未來的發展而言？

No. Not yet.

還沒有。

And then just to follow up on the Complete Nutrition launch. Can you just give us essence of how that's going? And is it playing a role that you had hoped and expected? And just an update on kind of how that's progressing.

然後跟進完整營養的發布。您能為我們介紹一下事情的本質嗎？它起到了你所希望和期待的作用嗎？只是介紹一下進展。

Yes, it's actually done a little bit better than we anticipated actually. So something we put in last year to make the portfolio a little bit more accessible, little bit more affordable to consumers. We wanted to react to what was going on in the market. And again, I want to say that, that is margin neutral for us. But we were able to do some work around formulation in order to provide a great product that we're incredibly proud of. In fact, I fed my dog that last night.

是的，它實際上比我們預期的要好一些。因此，我們去年推出的一些產品是為了讓消費者更容易取得、更實惠地購買產品組合。我們想對市場上發生的事情做出反應。我想說，這對我們來說是中性的。但我們能夠在配方方面做一些工作，以提供我們引以為傲的優質產品。事實上，我昨晚餵了我的狗。

And it's done quite well. It's been exactly what it was designed to do, bring in new consumers into the franchise. We're seeing nice sales on it, and we're seeing -- we've also been able to see really nice amount of new consumers coming in, and we know that they're trying that product. So it's done what we've designed it to do, and it's performing well to the point where we're even -- we'll continue to consider is there anything else around the portfolio we might do on that over time.

而且做得相當不錯。這正是它的設計初衷，將新消費者帶入特許經營中。我們看到它的銷量不錯，我們也看到大量新消費者進入，我們知道他們正在嘗試該產品。所以它完成了我們設計它要做的事情，並且表現良好，達到了我們的水平——我們將繼續考慮隨著時間的推移，我們可能會在這個投資組合上做任何其他事情。

But actually, to the last question that was asked, we are -- as we're adding things, we are decreasing our number of SKUs over the kind of the next 12 to 18 months. We're actually going to bring down the end of our tail and clean it up so we can be more efficient in our production.

但實際上，對於最後一個問題，我們在添加東西的同時，也會在未來 12 到 18 個月內減少 SKU 的數量。實際上，我們將把尾巴末端放下並清理乾淨，這樣我們就可以提高生產效率。

Our next question is from the line of Robert Moskow with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Robert Moskow 和 TD Cowen。

Two quick things. You mentioned that your buy rate is now at $96 a year and you're bumping up against your household penetration target, you're at 19% and the target's 20%. And I think you've answered this in different ways, but doesn't that really mean that the buying rate this year will have to increase pretty substantially assuming -- if 20% is the number. Is this the year where buying rate really needs to increase? And do you have like a number internally as to where it needs to go? And then I have a quick follow-up.

兩件快事。您提到您的購買率現在為每年 96 美元，並且您正在接近家庭滲透率目標，您的購買率為 19%，目標為 20%。我認為您已經以不同的方式回答了這個問題，但這是否真的意味著今年的購買率必須大幅增加（假設 20% 是這個數字）。今年是購買率真正需要提升的一年嗎？您內部是否有一個關於它需要去往何處的數字？然後我會進行快速跟進。

Yes. We've always said that sort of the long-term algorithm here is that you have penetration growth rates in the 20%, 21%, 22% range, and then buy rate be up in the, call it, 5%, 6% range, and that collectively gets you to the growth rate.

是的。我們總是說，這裡的長期演算法是滲透率成長率在 20%、21%、22% 範圍內，然後購買率上升，稱之為 5%、6%範圍，這總體上可以讓你得到成長率。

So you're right, we do need to see that grow. Going back to the Scott's comments earlier, a big part of that is from the increase in number of HIPPOHs because that obviously pulled the whole portfolio up. They're obviously a smaller share of the total business, but they do pull the portfolio up. And so as we increase the number of HIPPOHs, the buy rate will go up in addition to the consumers who are in the franchise. But you're right, we do need to see the buy rate growing in the, call it, mid-single-digit range.

所以你是對的，我們確實需要看到它的成長。回到斯科特之前的評論，其中很大一部分來自 HIPPOH 數量的增加，因為這顯然拉動了整個投資組合的成長。顯然，它們在總業務中所佔的份額較小，但它們確實拉動了投資組合。因此，當我們增加 HIPPOH 的數量時，除了特許經營中的消費者之外，購買率也會上升。但你是對的，我們確實需要看到購買率在中個位數範圍內成長。

Okay. And then the follow-up is, I didn't hear any mention of repeat data today. I'm sure it looks great. But this is a year where there was a lot of trial. You're advertising a lot. One of your competitors was advertising a lot. What data do you look at internally to make sure that the people who are trying this for the first time are repeating it at the rate that you would hope that they would?

好的。然後後續是，我今天沒有聽到任何重複數據的提及。我確信它看起來很棒。但這是充滿考驗的一年。你打廣告很多。你的一位競爭對手做了很多廣告。您在內部查看哪些數據，以確保首次嘗試此操作的人以您希望的速度重複該操作？

Yes. Rob, part of the reason we haven't talked a lot about lately was there has been a data source change on that, it's kind of confusing to look at the 2 different data sources. Suffice it to say, in either data source, the repeat rates are continuing to be strong and growing. It's just there's a different metric, and we just need to get ourselves comfortable that the new metric that's available to us is consistent and predictable. But we are -- no matter which sources we're looking at, we're seeing that the repeat rates are in line with where they've been in the past, maybe a smidge higher.

是的。 Rob，我們最近沒有太多討論的部分原因是資料來源發生了變化，查看兩個不同的資料來源有點令人困惑。可以說，無論是哪個資料來源，重複率都持續強勁且不斷成長。只是有一個不同的指標，我們只需要讓自己感到舒服，我們可用的新指標是一致且可預測的。但我們是——無論我們查看哪些來源，我們都發現重複率與過去的情況一致，甚至可能略高一些。

And if it was -- if they weren't strong, you would definitely see that. You wouldn't see the HIPPOHs growing like they are.

如果是——如果他們不強大，你肯定會看到這一點。你不會看到 HIPPOH 像現在這樣生長。

Our next question is from the line of Kaumil Gajrawala with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自考米爾·加吉拉瓦拉 (Kaumil Gajrawala) 和傑弗里斯 (Jefferies) 的專線。

Lots of conversation on managing growth to that 25% number. Can you maybe just talk about how you do that practically? Obviously, one thing that's been asked a few times is around media spend. But how do you do that in practical terms, given where it seems like demand -- seems like demand is? Is it -- how are you dealing with your retailers, what the commitments are. Just generally sort of the nuts and bolts of pulling that -- managing that figure?

關於將成長控制在 25% 的問題有很多討論。您能談談您實際上是如何做到這一點的嗎？顯然，人們多次詢問的一件事是媒體支出。但實際上，考慮到似乎有需求——似乎有需求，你該如何做到這一點？是嗎—您如何與零售商打交道，承諾是什麼？只是一般性地整理一下拉動這一數字的具體細節——管理這個數字？

Yes. By far, the biggest driver of our growth rate and the thing that we have to do to manage the growth rate is to control the media spend. And so we're looking out across the year, but literally looking at it on a month-by-month basis and quarter-by-quarter basis because we know that when we spend money like we did in the fourth quarter, while we saw some benefit in that in the fourth quarter, particularly on household penetration growth, the real impact of that is felt in the first quarter of this year because they're sort of acquire a consumer and the consumer start down the purchase journey that they go through.

是的。到目前為止，我們成長率的最大驅動力以及我們必須做的管理成長率的事情是控制媒體支出。因此，我們正在全年進行展望，但實際上是逐月和逐季度地進行審視，因為我們知道，當我們像第四季度那樣花錢時，雖然我們看到第四季度會帶來一些好處，特別是家庭滲透率的成長，今年第一季就會感受到這種影響的真正影響，因為他們在某種程度上獲得了消費者，而消費者開始了他們所經歷的購買旅程。

So as we think about trying to manage our capacity, for example, before our rolls line in Ennis gets up the new rolls line in Phase 2, we have to really manage the media spending that we're going to have in Q1, Q2 and Q3 in order to make sure that we don't get ourselves in a position to do short shipping. And we literally look at it on a monthly basis and on a quarterly basis.

因此，當我們考慮嘗試管理我們的產能時，例如，在我們位於恩尼斯的捲材生產線在第二階段建立新的捲材生產線之前，我們必須真正管理我們將在第一季、第二季和第三季度，以確保我們不會出現短途運輸。我們確實按月和按季度查看它。

That's really the biggest driver. We don't really regulate what we do with our customers because those plans take a long time to put in place on both their part and our part. And so we really rather do is manage the demand with our media investments.

這確實是最大的驅動力。我們並沒有真正規範我們對客戶所做的事情，因為這些計劃對他們和我們來說都需要很長時間才能落實到位。因此，我們真正願意做的是透過我們的媒體投資來管理需求。

Our next question is from the line of Tom Palmer with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的湯姆‧帕爾默 (Tom Palmer)。

Wanted to ask on the logistics side, it's been running lower than your long-term outlook assumed. I know last quarter, you mentioned favorability. But as we roll into 2024, I guess, how do we think about this progressing? And is 2024 kind of embedded in guidance more of a reversion to kind of the long-term target?

想問物流方面的問題，它的運作速度低於您預期的長期前景。我知道上個季度，您提到了好感度。但我想，當我們進入 2024 年時，我們如何看待這項進展？ 2024 年是否已納入指導方針，更像是對長期目標的回歸？

No. Well, year-over-year, we will have a decline in the cost structure of our logistics. So we're benefiting, obviously, from less miles, opening that second DC, and Texas is paying huge benefits. Billy mentioned our fill rates, our trucks are full, which obviously makes us more efficient as well. I mean, everyone is benefiting obviously from lower diesel and lower lane rates, and that's always a wildcard what that looks like in the future.

不會。與去年同期相比，我們的物流成本結構將會下降。因此，顯然，我們從減少里程、開設第二個配送中心中受益，而德州正在付出巨大的好處。比利提到了我們的填充率，我們的卡車已滿，這顯然也使我們更有效率。我的意思是，每個人都明顯受益於較低的柴油和較低的車道費率，而這始終是未來的一個通配符。

But with the steady market rates, we think there's still some favorability to go. So whether there will be some inflationary impacts down the road, I'm sure those rates will move around a little bit. But at this point, long term, the 7.5%, we're very, very confident that we can do better than that going forward.

但隨著市場利率穩定，我們認為仍有一些優惠。因此，無論未來是否會產生一些通膨影響，我確信這些利率都會略有波動。但就目前而言，從長遠來看，7.5%，我們非常非常有信心，我們可以做得更好。

Okay. And then I just wanted to follow up on volume growth. Maybe asking it a bit of a different way, right? You are ramping capacity to your progression. So I would assume the absolute level of sales increases sequentially over the course of the year. Is there a point just given capacity rolling on that we might see a bigger step-up just from a sequential scale point in 1 quarter versus another?

好的。然後我只想跟進銷售成長情況。也許用不同的方式來問，對嗎？你正在提升你的進步能力。因此，我假設銷售額的絕對水準在一年中連續成長。考慮到容量的不斷增加，是否存在一個點，我們可能會看到一個季度的連續規模點與另一個季度相比會有更大的提升？

But I mean the capacity -- so we've guided our capacity to match up with what the normal sales patterns are. And if I understand the question correctly, the real focus here is that we're managing our rolls capacity. Our business grows quite evenly across the whole portfolio. And so as you think about the cadence for the year, I think the cadence is a very normal cadence. It's just -- the one difference this year is that we're going to start hot, but we're going to start very hot in the first quarter because of the media we spent in the fourth quarter. And we have to pull that down a little bit as the year unfolds to live within the capacity limit we have on that rolls line. I think that's the question you're asking, is sort of the cadence. Is that where you're going?

但我指的是產能——因此我們指導我們的產能與正常的銷售模式相符。如果我正確理解這個問題，那麼這裡真正的重點是我們正在管理我們的捲容量。我們的業務在整個投資組合中成長相當均勻。因此，當你考慮今年的節奏時，我認為節奏是非常正常的節奏。只是——今年的一個區別是，我們將開始火熱，但由於我們在第四季度花費的媒體，我們將在第一季開始非常火爆。隨著時間的推移，我們必須將其稍微降低，以適應該軋製生產線的產能限制。我認為這就是你問的問題，是一種節奏。那是你要去的地方嗎？

Yes. Yes. That's helpful.

是的。是的。這很有幫助。

Yes. sequentially, every quarter, the dollar amount, the way we see it right now, it will be higher. The growth rates will differ. And we believe right now, just based on capacity, the growth rates will slow as the quarters go on. But sequentially, the absolute dollars will increase.

是的。接下來，每季的美元金額，按照我們現在的看法，都會更高。增長率會有所不同。我們目前認為，僅根據產能來看，隨著季度的持續，成長率將會放緩。但隨後，絕對美元將會增加。

Next question is from the line of Connor Rattigan with Consumer Edge Research.

下一個問題來自 Consumer Edge Research 的 Connor Rattigan。

So you've mentioned, one, to increase household penetration, convert users to HIPPOHs and then convert toppers to main meal users. So I guess just stepping back and thinking about consumer LTV, could you maybe help us just understand where you see the greatest opportunity? So I know you'd love to say all of the above, but I guess, if you were forced to pick or rank where you see the greatest opportunity, what would you rather see? Would it be adding an incremental user? Converting a user to a HIPPOH? Or converting a topper to a main meal user?

所以你提到，第一，為了提高家庭滲透率，將使用者轉換為 HIPPOH，然後將toppers 轉換為主餐使用者。所以我想退一步思考消費者生命週期價值，能否幫助我們了解您在哪裡看到了最大的機會？所以我知道你很樂意說出以上所有內容，但我想，如果你被迫選擇或排名你看到的最大機會，你會更願意看到什麼？會新增增量用戶嗎？將使用者轉變為 HIPPOH？或將禮賓者轉變為主餐用戶？

Yes, Connor. So the way I think about this is that when you're in the early innings of developing a category as we believe we still are, then you really is going to be focused on adding households, adding as many households as you can, and that's really the focus of the bulk of our media. As you get further into it, you will turn and focus your time and attention on increasing the buying rate within those households. .

是的，康納。所以我的想法是，當你正處於開發一個類別的早期階段時，我們相信我們仍然如此，那麼你真的會專注於增加家庭，增加盡可能多的家庭，這就是確實是我們大部分媒體的焦點。隨著您進一步深入，您將把時間和注意力集中在提高這些家庭的購買率上。 。

And that is naturally happening based on the product assortments that we've got, the presence of second fridges and whatnot. But the biggest driver for us right now is to get as many households into the fresh business. And then over time, we'll migrate that more toward buying rate. But today, at the early stages of this category development, we believe household penetration still is the #1 most important driver.

根據我們現有的產品種類、第二台冰箱等的存在，這種情況是自然發生的。但目前對我們來說最大的推動力是讓盡可能多的家庭進入生鮮產業。然後隨著時間的推移，我們將更多地轉向購買率。但如今，在該類別發展的早期階段，我們認為家庭滲透率仍然是第一大最重要的驅動因素。

Got it. Makes sense. And then I wanted to touch on the commentary on digital orders as well. So Bill, I think you noted and expected about $100 million in 2024 sales online. So I'm not sure if I missed it, but did you quantify the current size of your digital sales? And also, too, I'm just wondering, I guess, right, is the expectation that the continued growth in digital orders is just representative of adding incremental consumers who are, I guess, digital-only consumers? Or is there some expected cannibalization or, I guess, migration from Brick-and-Mortar to online?

知道了。說得通。然後我還想談談對數位訂單的評論。比爾，我想您已經注意到並預計 2024 年在線銷售額約為 1 億美元。所以我不確定我是否錯過了它，但是您是否量化了當前數位銷售的規模？而且，我也想知道，我想，數位訂單的持續成長是否只是代表增量消費者的增加，我想，這些消費者是純數位消費者？或者是否會出現一些預期的蠶食，或者我猜是從實體店遷移到線上？

So I think the main -- the main way to think about that is that we want to be as available to how -- as available as possible to however consumers want to buy our products. And when you make it easier and you make it kind of less friction, you're going to increase overall penetration, but you're also going to increase everyday usage.

所以我認為主要的思考方式是我們希望盡可能了解消費者想要購買我們產品的方式。當你讓它變得更容易並且摩擦更少時，你就會增加整體滲透率，但你也會增加日常使用。

So as we add basically more and more sales around digital, what we're seeing is that we're just making it easy to shop how consumers are shopping. And we're kind of following what we -- the biggest piece of that is definitely when people are ordering whether fresh and fresh/frozen food from their local stores, when they're making those orders and buying overall, like for their grocery trip, we're getting included in that. And as that opens up and more consumers are shopping that way, that's really the opportunity for us.

因此，當我們圍繞數位化增加越來越多的銷售時，我們看到的是，我們只是讓消費者的購物方式變得更容易。我們在某種程度上遵循我們——其中最重要的部分肯定是當人們從當地商店訂購新鮮和新鮮/冷凍食品時，當他們下訂單並整體購買時，例如他們的雜貨之旅，我們也被納入其中。隨著這種方式的開放和越來越多的消費者以這種方式購物，這對我們來說確實是一個機會。

So it basically makes it a little bit more convenient for consumers to basically shop around for us. So I think it's both on the -- this goes back to we're helping the mainstream and it also turns it into more of a main meal. I think digital piece is a real opportunity.

所以它基本上讓消費者更方便地為我們貨比三家。所以我認為這既可以追溯到我們正在幫助主流，也可以將其變成更多的主餐。我認為數位作品是一個真正的機會。

Our next question is from the line of Jim Salera with Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自吉姆·薩萊拉和史蒂芬斯。

Maybe to start off, a combo question for Billy and Scott. In the presentation, you guys highlighted, I think it's 22% of stores have second or third fridges. Do you have a sense for how big that percentage could get to as you continue to ramp the second and third fridge offerings? And then I think, Billy, in your script, you mentioned SKU count was up to around 18% from 16% a year ago.

也許首先要問比利和史考特一個組合問題。在演示中，你們強調，我認為 22% 的商店擁有第二台或第三台冰箱。當您繼續增加第二和第三台冰箱產品時，您是否知道這個百分比會達到多大？然後我想，Billy，在你的腳本中，你提到 SKU 數量從一年前的 16% 上升到 18% 左右。

Can you give us some detail on what those 2 incremental SKUs typically are and maybe what you think that SKU number could be, again, as you continue to increase the second and third fridges?

您能否詳細介紹一下這 2 個增量 SKU 通常是什麼，以及您認為隨著您繼續增加第二台和第三台冰箱，SKU 數量可能會是多少？

Every year, when we look at this, we feel like there is a greater and greater opportunity to have second fridges, and quite honestly, most stores. So we were talking earlier, we're an average of 64% ACV or 72%, I'll pick on grocery for a second, 72% in grocery, you know, ACV. And I think I mentioned that we have 2,000 double fridges in grocery.

每年，當我們看到這一點時，我們都覺得擁有第二台冰箱的機會越來越大，老實說，大多數商店都是如此。所以我們之前討論過，我們平均有 64% ACV 或 72%，我會選擇雜貨店，72% 在雜貨店，你知道，ACV。我想我有提到我們的雜貨店有 2,000 個雙冰箱。

There's no reason why we couldn't be into the 80s, in grocery, 85%, maybe 90% ACV in total. And over some period of time, there is no reason why we couldn't have second fridges in most stores because you look -- and what the way we think about this is, this is a new category or a new segment. And every -- if you look at dry or wet, it's basically in every single store and then it has a fair amount of space. I mean, you typically -- even a tight wet section is 8 or 12 feet. So why wouldn't there be that in fresh over time?

我們沒有理由不能進入 80 年代，在雜貨店，總共 85%，也許 90% ACV。在一段時間內，我們沒有理由不能在大多數商店配備第二台冰箱，因為你看，我們對此的看法是，這是一個新類別或一個新細分市場。如果你看乾的或濕的，基本上每個商店都有，而且有相當大的空間。我的意思是，即使是狹窄的潮濕區域，通常也有 8 或 12 英尺。那麼為什麼隨著時間的推移不會有新鮮的東西呢？

So that's kind of like our longer-term vision. Exactly how it plays out and when, I mean, we have lots of projections and lots of ideas around it. And we do believe that we will get there over time. But I want to go back to that's a great opportunity. The single biggest opportunity that we have is using our media to educate people, creating awareness, driving penetration, driving more consumer. And I think I mentioned a number earlier, but same-store sales growth is always in the mid- to high teens. And that's tremendous. And it definitely can touch into the 20s.

這有點像是我們的長期願景。確切地說，它是如何發揮作用的，我的意思是，我們對此有很多預測和很多想法。我們相信隨著時間的推移我們會實現這一目標。但我想回去那是一個很好的機會。我們擁有的最大的機會是利用我們的媒體來教育人們、提高意識、推動滲透、吸引更多消費者。我想我之前提到過一個數字，但同店銷售額的成長始終在十幾歲左右。這太棒了。而且絕對可以達到20多歲。

So that's really where the core of our growth comes from. And when you add those second coolers, it creates that visibility, it creates an additional holding power, and it does create additional SKUs. We don't want to over SKU. We want to make sure we have the right SKUs to basically have, I guess, a portfolio of products that consumers really appreciate. So we don't want to over SKU. So I would see even in the double fridges, I would see no more than kind of 25 SKUs in the average store to make sure we have enough holding power.

所以這確實是我們成長的核心所在。當您添加第二個冷卻器時，它會產生可見性，產生額外的保持力，並且確實會產生額外的 SKU。我們不想 SKU 過多。我想，我們希望確保我們擁有正確的 SKU，基本上擁有消費者真正欣賞的產品組合。所以我們不想 SKU 過多。因此，即使在雙冰箱中，我在普通商店中看到的 SKU 也不會超過 25 個，以確保我們有足夠的保存能力。

Okay. Great. And then, Todd, if I could sneak in a question for you. On the margin front, you guys have made a ton of progress, did a really good job this year. But if we think about 2027, kind of 18% EBITDA margin target compared to the implied margin for 2024 at the midpoint I think is 11%, still a lot of wood to chop between those 2 numbers. As we think about the annual cadence of getting to that 18% goal, when should we expect to see margins inflect more significantly compared to where we are now?

好的。偉大的。然後，托德，我可以偷偷地問你一個問題嗎？在利潤方面，你們今年取得了很大的進步，做得非常好。但如果我們考慮 2027 年，與 2024 年中點的隱含利潤率 11% 相比，EBITDA 利潤率目標為 18%，我認為這兩個數字之間仍有很大的差距。當我們考慮實現 18% 目標的年度節奏時，我們什麼時候會看到利潤率與現在相比出現更顯著的變化？

Yes. I mean, look, if you just do the math, we need another 10 points. So about 5 in gross margin and 5 below based on the guidance we've given, we'll get at least 100 up top and then 100 or so below the line as well. So we're going to pick up a couple of 100 basis points and getting double digits for the first time, which is exciting for us.

是的。我的意思是，看，如果你算一下，我們還需要 10 分。因此，根據我們給出的指導，毛利率約為 5，低於 5，我們將至少獲得頂部 100 的毛利率，然後在線下也獲得 100 左右的毛利率。因此，我們將首次實現兩位數的成長，這對我們來說是令人興奮的。

Don't -- look, I'm not smart enough, to be honest, to know exactly what that cadence is going to be. If we pick up 200 basis points or so over the next several years, we'll get there. And as I've kind of said before, if we're at 18% or a 45% in 2027 from a gross margin or an EBITDA margin line, obviously it'll be a little bit disappointing because I do think there's upside. Not that we're promising more than that at this point, but I think there is potential upside to those numbers.

別——聽著，老實說，我不夠聰明，無法準確知道節奏會是什麼。如果我們在未來幾年內提​​高 200 個基點左右，我們就能實現這一目標。正如我之前所說，如果 2027 年我們的毛利率或 EBITDA 利潤率達到 18% 或 45%，顯然會有點令人失望，因為我確實認為還有上升空間。並不是說我們目前承諾的更多，但我認為這些數字有潛在的上升空間。

But if we can pick up a couple of hundred basis points or 2% to 2.50% every year of EBITDA margin, we hit that target. And there's the potential -- if some of the efficiency work that we're doing pays off, we can do a little bit better.

但如果我們每年的 EBITDA 利潤率能夠提高幾百個基點或 2% 到 2.50%，我們就達到了這個目標。而且還有潛力——如果我們正在做的一些效率工作得到回報，我們可以做得更好一點。

Our next question comes from the line of John Lawrence with Benchmark Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Benchmark Company 的約翰勞倫斯 (John Lawrence)。

Just quickly, we talk about retailer growth at mass and grocery. Can you speak to -- at this point, as you continue to market to those retail partners, what continues to be their objection? I mean, obviously, you proved the model out, it works, a lot of same-store sales. What would be -- would be old facilities? Does -- when Walmart expands and build new units, are you part of that? Or what determines whether they go or not go?

很快，我們就討論了大眾和雜貨零售商的成長。當您繼續向這些零售合作夥伴進行行銷時，您能否談談他們仍然反對的是什麼？我的意思是，顯然，你證明了這個模型，它有效，有很多同店銷售。舊設施會是什麼？當沃爾瑪擴張並建立新的單位時，你會參與其中嗎？或說是什麼決定了他們去或不去？

John, yes, thank you for the question on that, too. It's interesting because I talk to the sales team. I meet with retailers very often, I talk to the sales team a lot. And when you're rejected for a long, long period of time, in 2006, 2008, 2010, and then the amount of love we get today, it all makes it worthwhile. And I'm being serious. And I would say the partnerships that we're building, how we're constructing this segment, how we're working with our retailers in order to make sure that this is a important category for them, but also a productive category for them, I think, is really, really appreciated. And I actually get that feedback pretty often.

約翰，是的，也謝謝你提出這個問題。這很有趣，因為我和銷售團隊交談過。我經常與零售商會面，與銷售團隊交談很多。當你被拒絕了很長一段時間，2006年、2008年、2010年，然後我們今天得到的愛，這一切都變得值得。我是認真的。我想說的是，我們正在建立的合作夥伴關係，我們如何建立這個細分市場，我們如何與零售商合作，以確保這對他們來說是一個重要的類別，也是他們富有成效的類別，我認為，真的非常非常感激。事實上我常常收到這樣的回饋。

So I would say that there's very few objections. And I think it's just -- everyone has a different pace they're going at it. So when do they set -- when do they do a major category reset? We're not like pulling an item in or a couple of items in and out. That's easy. You just fly it off shelf there's a lot involved in putting a fridge in. And in one store, it's not that complicated. In hundreds or thousands of stores, it gets really complicated. So they typically want to do it when they're doing major category changes resets because if we're going in, other things have to go, and they just want to do those things gradually. There are times when you've seen it, where they're literally moving around the whole store. And what they don't want to do is drop a fridge and drop an electrical line in and then 6 months or a year later, go ahead and move around the store and have to do the same thing again.

所以我想說，很少人反對。我認為這只是——每個人都有不同的節奏。那麼他們什麼時候設定——什麼時候進行主要類別重置？我們不喜歡將一個物品拉入或拉出幾個物品。這很容易。你只需要把它從貨架上拿出來，把冰箱放進去就涉及到很多事情。在一家商店裡，這並不那麼複雜。在數百家商店中，情況變得非常複雜。因此，他們通常希望在進行重大類別更改重置時這樣做，因為如果我們要進入，其他事情就必須進行，而他們只是想逐漸地做這些事情。有時你會看到他們在整個商店裡走來走去。他們不想做的是扔掉冰箱並插入電線，然後 6 個月或一年後，繼續在商店裡走動，不得不再次做同樣的事情。

So I think it's just a nice steady stream and a good cadence that we're continuing to roll out with retailers. I -- we really don't hear objections for the most part. I mean, we heard them for a very long time, but there's very, very few today.

因此，我認為我們將繼續與零售商一起推出良好的穩定流動和良好的節奏。我——我們在大多數情況下確實沒有聽到反對意見。我的意思是，我們已經聽到它們很久了，但今天卻很少了。

Our final question is from the line of Marc Torrente with Wells Fargo.

我們的最後一個問題來自富國銀行的馬克‧托倫特 (Marc Torrente)。

Just real quick. Building on the media discussion, maybe talk about some of the media efficiencies and effectiveness, what's working best here and strategy plan throughout the year? And then you saw good operating cash flow progress in '23. How are you thinking about this growth through '24 leverage levels and progress towards the longer-term free cash flow targets?

真的很快。在媒體討論的基礎上，也許可以談談一些媒體效率和效果，什麼是最有效的以及全年的戰略計劃？然後你在 23 年看到了良好的營運現金流進展。您如何看待「24」槓桿水準的成長以及實現長期自由現金流目標的進展？

So it's really -- it is interesting. And we've cycled through lots and lots of different media that we do. And the thing that we consistently find to be the most effective and productive is a lot of -- I won't call it mass media, but we obviously do and try and do a lot of targeting to different consumer groups.

所以這真的很有趣。我們已經循環使用了很多不同的媒體。我們一直認為最有效和最有成效的東西是很多——我不會稱之為大眾媒體，但我們顯然會嘗試並針對不同的消費者群體進行大量的定位。

So literally, probably about 18 to 24 months ago, we started expanding our conservative target because into kind of a male demographic and also a younger male demographic. And what you started to see probably is you start to see a show up on football, for example. We had not done it in the past because it not only, a, was it expensive, but b, it was not the original target we were focused on, which was kind of was women for the most part. Now again, women watch football, obviously. But we continue to expand. And what we did, when we expanded into football, we were able to see really good productivity, and we are reaching new types of consumers and different consumer groups.

因此，從字面上看，可能大約 18 到 24 個月前，我們開始擴大我們的保守目標，因為進入了男性人口和年輕男性人口。例如，你開始看到的可能是你開始看到足球節目的出現。我們過去沒有這樣做，因為它不僅，a，它很昂貴，而且b，這不是我們最初關注的目標，這在很大程度上是女性。顯然，現在女性又看足球了。但我們仍在繼續擴張。我們所做的，當我們擴展到足球領域時，我們能夠看到非常好的生產力，並且我們正在接觸新類型的消費者和不同的消費群體。

I got a -- literally, I got text message the other day from someone said, "Hey, I saw one of your commercials", we were on a golf -- some type of golf. And they said, "Oh, I had seen this commercial." The commercial has been running for 8 months, and they hadn't seen it, but it was new to them, which means that we're continually hitting some of these new people.

我收到一條——字面意義上的，前幾天有人發短信說，“嘿，我看到了你的一個廣告”，我們正在打高爾夫球——某種類型的高爾夫球。他們說：“哦，我看過這個廣告。”該廣告已經播放了 8 個月，他們還沒有看過，但這對他們來說是新的，這意味著我們不斷吸引一些新人。

So we use a lot of mass TV, it's been our #1 most productive piece. We have an incredible partnership with the -- internally, but also an external team that does our media buying. And we hold a very, very high standard. And I would say the level of analytics that we do behind it is second to no one in CPG, quite honestly.

所以我們使用了大量的大眾電視，這是我們最有成效的作品之一。我們與內部團隊以及負責媒體購買的外部團隊有著令人難以置信的合作關係。我們擁有非常非常高的標準。老實說，我想說，我們在其背後所做的分析水平在 CPG 中是首屈一指的。

We do also work with OTT and connected TV. We also do a lot in digital. We're expanding more and more. We do definitely social. We're expanding into social. And you're going to see us do more and more PR over the next kind of 12 to 18 months, too. So we're definitely pushing into those areas. And our goal is to be anywhere between 6 to 12 months forward in what we're going to be executing. And what I mean by that is, literally, at the end of this year, I know the types of media and how we're going to test it, the messages we're going to be delivering, and we want to test it before we get there so we know we're being -- we're able to deliver on the productivity that the organization needs to continue to grow.

我們也與 OTT 和連網電視合作。我們在數位領域也做了很多工作。我們的擴張規模越來越大。我們確實從事社交活動。我們正在擴展到社交領域。在接下來的 12 到 18 個月裡，您也會看到我們做越來越多的公關工作。所以我們肯定會進軍這些領域。我們的目標是提前 6 到 12 個月執行我們將要執行的任務。我的意思是，從字面上看，在今年年底，我知道媒體的類型以及我們將如何測試它，我們將傳遞的信息，並且我們希望在此之前對其進行測試我們到達那裡，所以我們知道我們能夠提供組織持續發展所需的生產力。

So we try and be, like, really, really kind of thoughtful and very, very professional and planned out around what we're doing from a media and media investment and spending standpoint.

因此，我們嘗試做到，真的，真的，深思熟慮，非常非常專業，並從媒體和媒體投資和支出的角度圍繞我們正在做的事情進行規劃。

Yes. From a cash flow perspective, look, we are beyond thrilled about how strong operating cash flow was in 2023 up to $76 million. Obviously, some of that was the EBITDA, but also the working capital back in line. We had some issues in 2022 when we went live with ERP. We had a little bit higher working capital than we would normally have, we got that benefit back in '23, that was kind of a onetime gain there.

是的。從現金流的角度來看，我們對 2023 年營運現金流高達 7,600 萬美元的強勁程度感到非常興奮。顯然，其中一部分是 EBITDA，但也有恢復正常的營運資金。 2022 年，我們在使用 ERP 時遇到了一些問題。我們的營運資金比平常高一些，我們在 23 年就獲得了這種好處，這是一次性的收益。

I think from an operating cash flow going into this year, probably around $90 million because again, we're not going to have that benefit from working capital. And as I said, we're going to spend about $210 million in CapEx. That implies the cash balance of almost $300 million we have end of the year will be around $180-ish million is where we'll end cash for the year. So it puts us in a great position for '25 beyond.

我認為從今年的營運現金流來看，可能約為 9,000 萬美元，因為我們不會從營運資本中獲得這種好處。正如我所說，我們將在資本支出上花費約 2.1 億美元。這意味著我們年底擁有的近 3 億美元的現金餘額將達到 1.8 億美元左右，這是我們今年的現金結餘。因此，這使我們在 25 年後處於有利地位。

Thank you. At this time, we've reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I now turn the call over to Bill Cyr for closing remarks.

謝謝。此時，我們的問答環節已經結束了。我現在將電話轉交給比爾·西爾（Bill Cyr）發表結束語。

Great. Everyone, thank you very much for your interest. I'll leave this thought. This is from Helen Thompson, "a well-trained dog will make no attempt to share your lunch." It will just make you feel so guilty that you cannot enjoy it. To which I would add, feed your dog Freshpet, and all your guilt will disappear as fast as the Freshpet. Thank you very much.

偉大的。大家，非常感謝您的關注。我會留下這個想法。這是海倫湯普森說的，“一隻訓練有素的狗不會試圖分享你的午餐。”它只會讓你感到非常內疚，以至於你無法享受它。我要補充的是，餵你的狗 Freshpet，你所有的罪惡感都會像 Freshpet 一樣消失得很快。非常感謝。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day.

今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與，祝您有美好的一天。