Freshpet Inc (FRPT) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Freshpet Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Mr. Jeff Sonnek, Investor Relations at ICR. Thank you. You may begin.

問候，歡迎參加 Freshpet 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員指令）。提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。現在，我想將電話轉給主持人、ICR 投資者關係部負責人 Jeff Sonnek 先生。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Freshpet's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call and Webcast. On today's call are Billy Cyr, Chief Executive Officer; and Todd Cunfer, Chief Financial Officer; Scott Morris, Chief Operating Officer, will also be available for Q&A.

謝謝。早安，歡迎參加 Freshpet 2023 年第三季財報電話會議和網路廣播。參加今天電話會議的有執行長 Billy Cyr；以及財務長 Todd Cunfer；營運長 Scott Morris 也將參加問答環節。

Before we begin, please remember that during the course of this call, management may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These statements are based on management's current expectations and beliefs and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in these forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，請記住，在本次電話會議期間，管理層可能會根據聯邦證券法做出前瞻性陳述。這些聲明是基於管理階層目前的預期和信念，涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性聲明中所述的結果有重大差異。

Please refer to the company's annual report on Form 10-K filed with the SEC and the company's press release issued today for a detailed discussion of the risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made today.

請參閱本公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表年度報告以及本公司今天發布的新聞稿，以詳細了解可能導致實際結果與今天做出的任何前瞻性陳述中表達或暗示的結果存在重大差異的風險。

Please note that on today's call, management will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, such as EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA, among others while the company believes these non-GAAP financial measures provide useful information for investors, presentation of this information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the financial information presented in accordance with GAAP.

請注意，在今天的電話會議上，管理層將參考某些非 GAAP 財務指標，例如 EBITDA 和調整後的 EBITDA 等，儘管公司認為這些非 GAAP 財務指標為投資者提供了有用的信息，但呈現這些信息並非旨在單獨考慮或替代按照 GAAP 呈現的財務信息。

Please refer to today's press release for how management defines such non-GAAP measures, a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable measures prepared in accordance with GAAP and limitations associated with such non-GAAP measures.

請參閱今天的新聞稿，以了解管理階層如何定義此類非公認會計準則指標、非公認會計準則財務指標與根據公認會計準則編制的最具可比性的指標的調節以及與此類非公認會計準則指標相關的限制。

Finally, the company has produced a presentation that contains many of the key metrics that will be discussed on this call. That presentation can be found on the company's investor website. Management's commentary will not specifically walk through the presentation on the call, but rather it's a summary of the results and guidance that we'll discuss today. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Billy Cyr, Chief Executive Officer. Billy?

最後，該公司製作了一份演示文稿，其中包含本次電話會議將討論的許多關鍵指標。該演示文稿可以在該公司的投資者網站上找到。管理層的評論不會具體介紹電話會議上的演示，而是對我們今天討論的結果和指導的總結。說到這裡，我想把電話轉給執行長 Billy Cyr。比利？

Thank you, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. The message I would like you to take away from today's call is that the third quarter results show that the Freshpet business is delivering on its promises and potential. And as a result, we are off to a fast start towards our 2027 goals. At the beginning of the year, we laid out our new Fresh Future long-term plan that called for 25% annual top line growth resulting in $1.8 billion in net sales in 2027 and strong margin improvement with the ultimate goal of delivering 18% adjusted EBITDA margins in 2027.

謝謝你，傑夫，大家早安。我希望你們從今天的電話會議中得到的訊息是，第三季的結果表明 Freshpet 業務正在兌現其承諾並發揮其潛力。因此，我們已快速起步邁向 2027 年目標。今年年初，我們制定了新的「新鮮未來」長期計劃，要求實現年度營收成長 25%，到 2027 年實現 18 億美元的淨銷售額，並實現利潤率的強勁提升，最終目標是在 2027 年實現 18% 的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率。

For 2023, the first year of that plan, we committed to continuing our strong track record of net sales growth while simultaneously fixing the operating issues that were preventing us from generating the margins that we know are attainable in this business. We are delivering on that commitment and exceeding many of the targets we set, putting us ahead of the pace required to deliver our 2027 goals. This increases our confidence in the capability we are building, the strategies we are employing and our ability to deliver our long-term goals.

2023 年是該計畫的第一年，我們致力於延續強勁的淨銷售額成長記錄，同時解決阻礙我們實現該業務可實現的利潤率的營運問題。我們正在履行這項承諾，並超額完成了我們設定的許多目標，使我們領先於實現 2027 年目標所需的步伐。這增強了我們對正在建立的能力、正在採用的策略以及實現長期目標的能力的信心。

In Q3, we delivered both top line and bottom line growth ahead of expectations for the quarter. We delivered 33% net sales growth, bringing our year-to-date net sales growth 28%, while we also delivered a step change in our profitability due to strong operational improvements. As a result of that progress, we are raising both our net sales and adjusted EBITDA guidance for the year.

第三季度，我們的營收和淨利成長均超出了預期。我們的淨銷售額成長了 33%，使年初至今的淨銷售額成長了 28%，同時由於強勁的營運改進，我們的獲利能力也實現了重大變化。由於這一進展，我們提高了今年的淨銷售額和調整後的 EBITDA 預期。

We believe our fast start towards our 2027 goals is largely due to the strengthened organization capability we have built and the strength of the Freshpet consumer proposition. The team we've built is delivering improvements in our key focus areas of quality, logistics and input costs at a rate that has exceeded our projections, and which enabled us to deliver a 40.2% adjusted gross margin in the quarter.

我們相信，我們快速邁向 2027 年目標很大程度上得益於我們建立的強化組織能力和 Freshpet 消費者主張的實力。我們組建的團隊正在以超出我們預期的速度在品質、物流和投入成本等重點關注領域取得改進，這使我們能夠在本季度實現 40.2% 的調整後毛利率。

Our progress in logistics has been even more significant and impressive. This is a true testament to the quality and depth of our team that is spearheading these projects and we couldn't be more proud of this measurable progress.

我們在物流方面的進步更是顯著且令人印象深刻。這真正證明了我們領導這些專案的團隊的品質和深度，我們對這項可衡量的進展感到無比自豪。

Our net sales growth has also been impressive, and is a good demonstration of how resilient the Freshpet brand is even in the face of higher pricing. Q3 was our fourth consecutive quarter of accelerating volume growth and our 23% volume growth in the quarter in combination with our typical mix improvement provides added confidence that we can continue to deliver the mid-20s net sales growth CAGR needed to support our long-term algorithm even without the benefit of pricing.

我們的淨銷售額成長也令人印象深刻，很好地證明了 Freshpet 品牌在面臨更高價格的情況下仍具有很強的韌性。第三季是我們連續第四個季度實現銷售加速成長，本季銷售成長 23%，再加上我們典型的產品組合改善，讓我們更有信心，即使沒有定價優勢，我們也能繼續實現支持我們長期演算法所需的 25% 左右的淨銷售額複合年增長率。

Even more encouraging is the increasing rate of household penetration growth that we have seen. While it will take some time for the 52-week household penetration measure to show the low 20s household penetration growth we have seen previously, the 13-week measure is already approaching that rate of growth. It is just a matter of time for the long-term measures to catch up. We think that will happen by midyear next year.

更令人鼓舞的是，我們看到家庭滲透率的成長率不斷上升。雖然 52 週的家庭滲透率指標需要一段時間才能達到我們之前看到的 20% 以下的家庭滲透率成長率，但 13 週的指標已經接近這一增長率。長期措施的趕上只是時間問題。我們認為這將會在明年年中實現。

While we are off to a great start, we are also mindful that we still have a lot of work to do to achieve our 2027 goal, particularly our margin goals. Our adjusted gross margin is still 500 basis points below our long-term goal and our adjusted EBITDA margin is also well below where it needs to be. We need to stay focused on improving our operational performance while simultaneously adding capacity to keep up with the strong growth we expect to deliver.

雖然我們已經有了很好的開端，但我們也意​​識到，要實現我們的 2027 年目標，特別是我們的利潤目標，我們還有很多工作要做。我們的調整後毛利率仍比我們的長期目標低 500 個基點，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率也遠低於應有的水準。我們需要專注於提高我們的營運績效，同時增加產能以跟上我們預期實現的強勁成長。

I want to provide a few additional highlights from the quarter, and then I will turn it over to Todd to provide the key details and our updated outlook for the balance of the year. First, net sales growth. The net sales growth in the quarter was particularly strong and ahead of our expectations. It was largely due to strong 23% volume growth that in combination with typical mix improvements is equal to our long-term 25% growth target. This growth was due to continued household penetration growth and even stronger growth in the number of heavy and super heavy users, what we call HIPPOHs. Those HIPPOHs account for 88% of our volume today. The number of HIPPOHs in the Freshpet franchise grew 25% in the past year and their buying rate grew 6%, demonstrating the disproportional impact that these targeted consumers have on our growth.

我想提供本季度的一些額外亮點，然後我將把時間交給 Todd 來提供關鍵細節和我們對今年餘額的最新展望。首先，淨銷售額成長。本季淨銷售額成長尤為強勁，超出我們的預期。這主要歸功於 23% 的強勁銷售成長，再加上典型的產品組合改進，相當於我們長期 25% 的成長目標。這種增長歸因於家庭普及率的持續增長，以及重度用戶和超重度用戶（我們稱之為 HIPPOH）數量的更強勁增長。這些 HIPPOH 占我們目前交易量的 88%。過去一年，Freshpet 特許經營店中的 HIPPOH 數量增加了 25%，他們的購買率增加了 6%，這表明這些目標消費者對我們的成長產生了巨大影響。

We also saw particularly strong growth in the unmeasured channels, such as Club with net sales up more than 100% in the unmeasured portion of that channel. What is particularly exciting is that 65% of the households, who buy Freshpet in that channel are completely new to Freshpet, and they buy in large quantities. The strong growth in the unmeasured channels more than offset the slower growth we've been experiencing in the pet specialty channel.

我們也看到未測量通路尤其強勁的成長，例如Club，該通路未測量部分的淨銷售額成長了100％以上。尤其令人興奮的是，透過該管道購買 Freshpet 的家庭中有 65% 都是第一次購買 Freshpet，而且他們購買的數量很大。未測量管道的強勁成長足以抵消我們在寵物專業管道經歷的成長放緩。

Second, fridge placements. We placed 4,464 new, upgraded and second or third fridges year-to-date, a record for us by a large margin. 20% of all of our 26,385 stores now have multiple fridges. We are on a pace that is well ahead of our initial commitment to place 5,000 fridges this year and already have the 1.7 million cubic feet at retail that we projected for the year. This is a testament to retailers' belief in Freshpet as a scalable and innovative category leader and that we represent a significant growth opportunity for them.

第二，冰箱的擺放位置。今年迄今，我們已投放了 4,464 台新冰箱、升級版冰箱以及第二台或第三台冰箱，創下了大幅紀錄。在我們所有的 26,385 家門市中，有 20% 的門市現在擁有多台冰箱。我們的進度遠遠超過了我們最初承諾的今年安裝 5,000 台冰箱的速度，並且已經達到了我們預計的今年零售量 170 萬立方英尺。這證明了零售商相信 Freshpet 是可擴展且創新的品類領導者，並且我們為他們帶來了巨大的成長機會。

Third, e-commerce. We continue to see strong growth in the e-commerce channel, which we define as curbside pickup, delivery and DTC. E-commerce now accounts for 9.5% of our total volume and 88% of that volume goes through our fridge network, either via curbside pickup or a store-based delivery option like Instacart, which grew 48% versus a year ago. E-commerce sales were up 62% versus a year ago, and we continue to believe this will grow as consumers increasingly adopt new and convenient grocery pickup and delivery services.

第三，電子商務。我們繼續看到電子商務通路的強勁成長，我們將其定義為路邊取貨、送貨和 DTC。電子商務現在占我們總銷量的 9.5%，其中 88% 的銷量透過我們的冰箱網路進行，無論是透過路邊取貨還是透過 Instacart 等店內配送方式，與一年前相比增長了 48%。電子商務銷售額較去年同期增長了 62%，我們繼續相信，隨著消費者越來越多地採用新的、便捷的雜貨提貨和送貨服務，這一數字還會增長。

Fourth, innovation. We launched our large dog offering in a limited number of stores earlier this year and it is off to a fast start with its dollar velocity within our top 10 items where it is in distribution. Based on these strong results and the ability of this item to expand our reach into larger dogs, we expect to expand distribution of this product next year.

第四，創新。我們在今年稍早在有限的幾家商店推出了大型犬產品，該產品一推出便迅速成為我們分銷的十大商品之一，其銷售額迅速飆升。基於這些強勁的業績以及該產品將我們的覆蓋範圍擴大到大型犬的能力，我們預計明年將擴大該產品的分銷。

Additionally, we launched Freshpet Complete Nutrition roles in October. Complete Nutrition offers the Freshpet experience at a good entry point value. We expect it to be in more than 9,500 stores by the end of the year. We think this will make Freshpet more accessible to interested, but more value-conscious consumers.

此外，我們在 10 月推出了 Freshpet Complete Nutrition 角色。 Complete Nutrition 以良好的切入點價值提供 Freshpet 體驗。我們預計到今年年底它將在超過 9,500 家商店上線。我們認為這將使 Freshpet 更容易被感興趣但更注重價值的消費者所接受。

Fifth, quality, logistics and input costs. As we told you at the beginning of the year, these costs would be our key focus areas as we sought to improve our operations and we are making good progress. In the quarter, we improved the collective total of these costs by 780 basis points versus a year ago. Within that, our quality costs were 190 basis points better than a year ago.

第五，品質、物流和投入成本。正如我們在今年年初所說的那樣，這些成本將是我們關注的重點領域，因為我們尋求改善運營，並且正在取得良好進展。本季度，我們這些成本總額較去年同期改善了 780 個基點。其中，我們的品質成本比一年前降低了 190 個基點。

Our progress in logistics has been exceptional, improving by 540 basis points versus a year ago. While we are benefiting from the macro environment, which has created less demand for trucking capacity and lower fuel costs than last year, we believe that only about 1/3 of our improvement is due to those factors, whereas the remaining 2/3 is due to actions we have directly taken.

我們在物流方面的進步非常顯著，比一年前提高了 540 個基點。雖然我們受益於宏觀環境，導致卡車運輸能力需求減少且燃料成本低於去年，但我們認為，我們只有約 1/3 的改善歸功於這些因素，而其餘 2/3 則歸功於我們直接採取的行動。

For perspective, despite shipping 23% more pounds of product in Q3 of this year than in Q3 last year, the total number of miles of freight we paid for was down by 28%. This was due to higher fill rates, larger order size after our June implementation of bracket pricing and the ramp-up of our second DC. And we have leveraged our increasing scale to get lower lane rates relative to the market than we have gotten previously. This is a clear demonstration of the incremental capability we have built in logistics over the past year.

從角度來看，儘管今年第三季運送的產品重量比去年第三季增加了 23%，但我們支付的運費總里程數卻下降了 28%。這是因為我們在六月實施了區間定價並擴大了第二個配送中心的規模後，配送完成率更高、訂單規模更大。而且，我們利用不斷擴大的規模來獲得相對於市場而言比以前更低的航線費率。這清楚地表明我們過去一年來在物流領域不斷增強的能力。

And sixth, capacity. We've successfully added incremental staffing at all 3 production sites over the past 90 days, and that is delivering the necessary capacity to support our current rate of growth and is positioning us well to meet the demand we anticipate in Q1 of 2024. Further, the second bag line in ENNIS has begun commissioning and is on track to begin producing available product by the end of the year. Construction of Phase 2 in ENNIS is on track or slightly ahead of schedule and that will enable us to begin producing rolls in the first line in Phase 2 by the end of Q3 of next year.

第六，能力。在過去 90 天裡，我們成功地在所有 3 個生產基地增加了員工，這為我們當前的成長率提供了必要的產能，並使我們能夠滿足 2024 年第一季度的預期需求。 ENNIS 第二階段的建設進展順利或略微提前，這將使我們能夠在明年第三季末開始在第二階段的第一條生產線上生產卷材。

In total, we believe we will have adequate capacity to support our near-term growth that underpins our 2027 algorithm and we'll be well positioned to support growth going forward.

總的來說，我們相信我們將有足夠的能力來支持我們2027年演算法所依據的近期成長，並且我們將處於有利地位來支持未來的成長。

In summary, we believe we are making very good progress and remain very bullish on the year and our long-term prospects. I would like to end my comments with some thoughts on the overall pet food category. There's been lots of discussion lately about the impact on household budgets and the influence on category volumes given higher category pricing and a wide variety of macroeconomic factors such as the resumption of student loan payments, interest rates and inflation.

總而言之，我們相信我們正在取得非常好的進展，並且對今年和我們的長期前景仍然非常樂觀。我想以對整個寵物食品類別的一些想法來結束我的評論。最近有很多關於對家庭預算的影響以及由於類別定價提高和各種宏觀經濟因素（例如恢復學生貸款支付、利率和通貨膨脹）對類別數量的影響的討論。

Clearly, the results we presented today suggest that an increasing number of consumers are still willing to pay for high-quality pet foods and demand for those types of products is growing. We are seeing strong growth across all age groups and income cohorts and we believe that the most important variables in determining what kind of pet food you feed your dog or not income or age, but how important your dog is to you? And how much you focus on their health and well-being.

顯然，我們今天展示的結果表明，越來越多的消費者仍然願意為高品質的寵物食品付費，而且對這類產品的需求也在增加。我們看到所有年齡層和收入群體都出現了強勁增長，我們認為，決定您給狗餵食哪種寵物食品的最重要變量是收入或年齡，但是您的狗對您有多重要？以及您對他們的健康和福祉的關注程度。

The cost of feed Freshpet is only about $2 per day for the average 30-pound dog. That expense for high-quality pet food has shown over time to be amongst the last things that someone cuts from their household budget when times are tight.

對於體重平均 30 磅的狗來說，Freshpet 的飼料成本每天僅為 2 美元左右。事實證明，當家庭預算緊張時，高品質寵物食品的開支是人們最後從家庭預算中削減的項目之一。

When you contrast our performance with a wider CPG narrative about consumer trade down that is occurring, this suggests that there is a bifurcation in the category with the high-end sliding and downward pressure less differentiated brands. It is true that our volume is becoming increasingly concentrated amongst our heaviest users, HIPPOHs, who also happen to be our fastest-growing group of users.

如果將我們的表現與更廣泛的快速消費品市場中消費者降級的現象進行對比，就會發現該類別產品存在分化，高端產品下滑，下行壓力較小，品牌差異化程度較低。事實上，我們的用戶量越來越集中在最重度的用戶 HIPPOH 身上，他們也是我們成長最快的用戶群。

We view that trend to be favorable, demonstrating high levels of satisfaction and making our business increasingly main meal instead of a topping or mixer. We now have almost 4 million HIPPOHs in our franchise, double the number we had 3 years ago, and they are consuming an average of $235 of Freshpet per year. That group has grown 25% over the past year and they now account for 88% of our business.

我們認為這種趨勢是有利的，表明滿意度很高，並且使我們的業務越來越成為主食，而不是配料或混合料。現在，我們的特許經營店內有近 400 萬名 HIPPOH，是 3 年前的兩倍，他們平均每年消費價值 235 美元的 Freshpet。該群體在過去一年中增長了25％，目前占我們業務的88％。

Within the heavy user HIPPOHs Group, we have a subset of about 250,000 users out the size of some of the DTC brand franchises who buy more than $1,000 per year account for about 25% of our total volume. That group has grown more than 50% over the past year. We described the consumer behavior we are seeing as Freshpet is becoming increasingly mainstream and main meal. We are growing our total franchise across all ages and income cohorts. Thus, we are becoming more mainstream, and we are increasingly driving higher and higher buying rates, thus becoming more main meal. This creates a strong, loyal and very valuable consumer franchise.

在重度用戶 HIPPOHs 群體中，我們擁有約 25 萬名用戶，這些用戶來自一些 DTC 品牌特許經營商，他們每年的購買額超過 1,000 美元，約占我們總銷量的 25%。過去一年來，該群體增長了50％以上。我們描述了我們所看到的消費者行為，因為 Freshpet 正日益成為主流和主食。我們正在擴大面向所有年齡層和收入群體的特許經營總規模。因此，我們變得越來越主流，我們不斷推動越來越高的購買率，從而變得越來越主食。這創造了一個強大、忠誠且非常有價值的消費者特許經營權。

This behavior is consistent with the long-term trend towards the humanization of pets and consumer interest in feeding their pets, the highest quality food that has driven the premiumization of the pet food market for the last 2 decades.

這種行為與寵物人性化的長期趨勢以及消費者對餵養寵物的興趣相一致，最高品質的食物推動了過去 20 年寵物食品市場的高端化。

Nothing in the data that we see suggests that this trend is slowing, and in fact, we believe that the next generation of users is even more interested in providing the highest quality of care for their pets and concerned about the quality of food they feed every member of their family. This is a fundamental trend that we've discussed over the years, but is being tested amid this period of economic uncertainty and the resiliency that we see is extremely encouraging for the future of Freshpet.

我們看到的數據沒有任何跡象表明這種趨勢正在放緩，事實上，我們相信下一代用戶更有興趣為他們的寵物提供最高品質的護理，並關心他們為每個家庭成員提供的食物品質。這是我們多年來一直在討論的基本趨勢，但在當前經濟不確定時期，這一趨勢正在接受考驗，而我們看到的彈性對於 Freshpet 的未來來說極為令人鼓舞。

With this backdrop, we believe that Freshpet has the potential to become a very large brand in a very large and growing category, and we are taking the necessary steps to ensure that we realize that potential. Now let me turn it over to Todd for the details on the Q3 results. Todd?

在這樣的背景下，我們相信 Freshpet 有潛力成為一個非常龐大且不斷增長的類別中的大品牌，並且我們正在採取必要措施確保實現這一潛力。現在，讓我將第三季業績的詳細資訊交給托德。托德？

Thank you, Billy, and good morning, everyone. As Billy said, in Q3, we continued the strong performance we saw earlier this year and have raised our net sales and adjusted EBITDA guidance to reflect that strength. Let me break it down a bit further.

謝謝你，比利，大家早安。正如比利所說，在第三季度，我們延續了今年早些時候的強勁表現，並提高了淨銷售額和調整後的 EBITDA 指引以反映這一強勁勢頭。讓我進一步分解。

Net sales came in at $200.6 million, up 33% versus a year ago. Our net price/mix was up more than 9.5% versus a year ago in the quarter and volume measured in pounds grew 23%. The price/mix was positively impacted by the 2 price increases we took in February and last September, totaling 7.5%. The mix benefit, which we have consistently seen over time as consumers migrate to higher priced items in our lineup was slightly more than 2 points.

淨銷售額達 2.006 億美元，較去年同期成長 33%。與去年同期相比，我們的淨價格/組合上漲了 9.5% 以上，以磅為單位的銷量增長了 23%。我們分別在二月和去年九月進行了兩次價格上調，總計上漲了 7.5%，對價格/產品組合產生了積極影響。隨著消費者逐漸轉向我們產品線中價格較高的產品，我們一直看到組合效益略高於 2 個百分點。

Total NIELSENIQ measured dollar growth was 28% versus a year ago in the quarter, but our growth in non-measured channels was much stronger and added almost 4 points to our measured channel growth, which also has been a consistent trend as of late. The growth was broad-based across channels, ranging from a low of 12% in the pet specialty channel through 30% in XAOC and greater than 100% in the unmeasured channels.

本季度，NIELSENIQ 測算的整體美元成長比去年同期成長了 28%，但我們在非計算管道的成長更為強勁，為我們的計算管道成長貢獻了近 4 個百分點，這也是近期的一致趨勢。各個通路均實現了廣泛成長，從寵物專業通路的12%到XAOC的30%以及未測量通路的100%以上。

Adjusted gross margin was 40.2% in Q3, 570 basis points better than a year ago and well above our base expectation. This improved performance was due to a variety of factors including improvements in the input cost and quality, the benefits of the pricing we took in February and increasing fixed cost leverage in ENNIS, all aspects of our operational improvement plan that our team is focused on.

第三季調整後的毛利率為 40.2%，比去年同期高出 570 個基點，遠高於我們的基本預期。績效改善歸功於多種因素，包括投入成本和品質的改善、我們在二月份採取的定價策略帶來的好處以及 ENNIS 固定成本槓桿的增加，以及我們團隊所關注的營運改善計劃的各個方面。

We expect these elements will continue to improve as we move forward and drive continued margin enhancement, particularly as we grow into the scale of the ENNIS operation.

我們預計，隨著我們不斷前進並推動利潤率持續提高，特別是隨著 ENNIS 營運規模的擴大，這些因素將繼續改善。

Total SG&A was 28.6% of net sales, down from 32.2% in the year ago quarter. The biggest improvement was in logistics, where we gained 540 basis points. We spent 9.5% of net sales on media in the quarter, which represents an increase of $5 million versus a year ago. We did have some unfavorability in SG&A as we trued up our bonus accrual to reflect this year's improved performance, increasing our bonus expense versus a year ago by 170 basis points.

銷售、一般及行政支出總額佔淨銷售額的 28.6%，低於去年同期的 32.2%。最大的進步是在物流領域，我們增加了 540 個基點。本季我們將淨銷售額的 9.5% 用於媒體，比去年同期增加了 500 萬美元。我們在銷售、一般及行政開支方面確實有一些不利因素，因為我們調整了獎金應計額以反映今年業績的改善，導致我們的獎金支出與一年前相比增加了 170 個基點。

Adjusted EBITDA was $23.2 million in Q3, that is considerably better than the expectation we had initially provided and was primarily due to the strong operating performance in COGS and logistics, and the better than planned net sales. For the year, we have delivered $35.2 million in adjusted EBITDA to date, well ahead of the initial expectations we set at the outset of the year.

第三季調整後的 EBITDA 為 2,320 萬美元，遠優於我們最初給出的預期，這主要歸功於 COGS 和物流的強勁營運表現，以及好於計劃的淨銷售額。今年迄今為止，我們的調整後 EBITDA 已達到 3520 萬美元，遠超我們年初設定的初始預期。

Capital spending in the quarter was $60 million. There is no change in our outlook for capital spending this year, which remains at $240 million. We generated around $39 million in operating cash flow year-to-date, an improvement of almost $93 million versus a year ago. As a result, our cash position is very strong with $338 million in cash on hand at the end of the quarter.

本季的資本支出為 6000 萬美元。我們對今年的資本支出預期沒有變化，仍為 2.4 億美元。我們今年迄今的營運現金流約為 3,900 萬美元，比一年前增加了近 9,300 萬美元。因此，我們的現金狀況非常強勁，本季末現金餘額為 3.38 億美元。

For the remainder of the year, we expect interest income and interest expense to largely offset each other. We believe that we have adequate cash to fully fund our growth through 2024 and we will be free cash flow positive in 2026. We also believe that we will have access to traditional non-dilutive forms of capital to bridge a gap in 2025, if it occurs.

在今年剩餘時間內，我們預計利息收入和利息支出將大致相互抵銷。我們相信，我們有足夠的現金來為我們到 2024 年的成長提供充分的資金，並且我們將在 2026 年實現自由現金流為正。

As we look ahead to closing out 2023, we expect to continue the strong consumption growth we demonstrated in Q3, but the net sales growth will be impacted by the large trade inventory refill we completed in Q4 of last year. We believe that trade inventory refill totaled around $10 million to $15 million in Q4 of 2022, and we will not have any trade inventory refill in Q4 of this year. Thus, we are expecting net sales growth to be in the low 20s while consumption growth will remain in the high 20s.

展望 2023 年即將結束之際，我們預計消費將繼續保持第三季的強勁成長，但淨銷售額成長將受到去年第四季完成的大規模貿易庫存補充的影響。我們認為，2022 年第四季的貿易庫存補充總額約為 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元，今年第四季我們不會有任何貿易庫存補充。因此，我們預計淨銷售額成長率將在 20% 出頭，而消費成長率將保持在 20% 左右的高點。

We will continue to see an increasing rate of growth coming from unmeasured channels as the club business is doing extremely well. We will be losing the year-on-year benefit of a 2.7% price increase we took last September. So we will only have 5 points of benefit from pricing versus a year ago in the fourth quarter. Thus, volume and continued mix improvements will be the primary drivers of our net sales growth. The trends we are seeing now are already supportive of the volume and mix growth we need to deliver our net sales goal for the year and start next year strongly.

由於俱樂部業務表現極佳，我們將繼續看到來自未測量管道的成長率不斷提高。我們將失去去年9月價格年增2.7%的效益。因此，與去年同期相比，我們在第四季的定價收益僅增加 5 個百分點。因此，銷售量和持續的產品組合改善將成為我們淨銷售額成長的主要驅動力。我們現在看到的趨勢已經支持了我們實現今年淨銷售目標和明年強勁開局所需的銷售和產品組合成長。

We expect to see continuing improvement in our operating cost in Q4 as we build scale in Ennis and continue the strong delivery we have already seen in logistics and quality. However, we have added manufacturing staff in anticipation of meeting the demand we will experience in Q1 of 2024 and that will impact the adjusted gross margin in Q4. We will also incur some start-up costs for the second backline in Ennis.

隨著我們在恩尼斯擴大規模並繼續在物流和品質方面保持強勁成長，我們預計第四季度的營運成本將繼續改善。然而，我們增加了製造員工，以滿足 2024 年第一季的需求，這將影響第四季度的調整後毛利率。我們也將為恩尼斯的第二條防線承擔一些啟動成本。

As a result, we expect the fourth quarter adjusted gross margin will be slightly below Q3, but well above the year ago margin of 33%. In the fourth quarter, we will have a sizable media dollar investment versus (inaudible) investment in the year ago. And that reinvestment will help us get off to a fast start in 2024. However, the rate of media spending in Q4 will be below the level we had in the first half of the year, providing some incremental margin benefit.

因此，我們預計第四季度調整後的毛利率將略低於第三季度，但遠高於去年同期的 33%。在第四季度，與去年同期相比，我們將進行相當規模的媒體投資。這項再投資將幫助我們在 2024 年快速起步。

Now let me turn to our guidance for the balance of the year. Given the strong performance to date and what we have seen of Q4 so far, we believe it is appropriate to raise our guidance to reflect the higher net sales and better-than-anticipated performance on adjusted gross margin and logistics.

現在，讓我來談談我們對今年剩餘時間的指導。鑑於迄今為止的強勁表現以及我們迄今為止所看到的第四季度表現，我們認為上調我們的預期是適當的，以反映更高的淨銷售額和好於預期的調整後毛利率和物流表現。

Now let me turn to our guidance for the balance of the year. Given the strong performance to date and what we have seen of Q4 so far, we believe it is appropriate to raise our guidance to reflect the higher net sales and better-than-anticipated performance on adjusted gross margin and logistics. Thus, we are raising our adjusted EBITDA guidance to around $62 million from at least $55 million, and we are raising our net sales guidance by $5 million to around $755 million.

現在，讓我來談談我們對今年剩餘時間的指導。鑑於迄今為止的強勁表現以及我們迄今為止所看到的第四季度表現，我們認為上調我們的預期是適當的，以反映更高的淨銷售額和好於預期的調整後毛利率和物流表現。因此，我們將調整後的 EBITDA 預期從至少 5,500 萬美元上調至 6,200 萬美元左右，並將淨銷售額預期上調約 500 萬美元至 7.55 億美元。

We are not ready to give formal guidance for 2024 yet, but you should expect us to continue to focus our strategic planning on delivering against our 2027 targets I call for 25% compound growth and an increasing rate of margin and profit growth.

我們尚未準備好為 2024 年提供正式指導，但您應該期待我們繼續專注於我們的策略規劃，以實現我們的 2027 年目標，我呼籲實現 25% 的複合成長率以及利潤率和利潤增長率的提高。

We will have fewer start-up costs next year, and we'll continue to capture scale benefits and quality improvements in our manufacturing facilities, resulting in further improvement in our adjusted gross margin next year. And we will continue to capture scale and efficiency benefits in SG&A. It is important to note that our priority will remain on restoring the profitability of the business while continuing to deliver the outsize growth that investors have come to expect from us.

明年我們的啟動成本將會減少，我們將繼續在製造設施中獲取規模效益和品質改進，從而進一步提高明年調整後的毛利率。我們將繼續在銷售、一般及行政開支方面獲取規模和效率效益。值得注意的是，我們的首要任務仍然是恢復業務獲利能力，同時繼續實現投資者所期望的超額成長。

However, at the scale we have now achieved over delivery of our growth rate has consequences that we must avoid to achieve our margin targets. It can significantly impact our ability to meet demand, stretch our ability to design, construct and start up new lines and stretch our balance sheet.

然而，以我們現在所實現的規模，成長率過高會帶來一些後果，我們必須避免這些後果，才能實現我們的利潤目標。它會嚴重影響我們滿足需求的能力，擴展我們設計、建造和啟動新生產線的能力，並擴大我們的資產負債表。

In this regard, we are being very thoughtful in managing our growth at levels that are consistent with our long-term target. Our goal is to always have adequate capacity to meet our anticipated demand and not much more than that, so that we can live within our existing resources.

在這方面，我們非常謹慎地管理我們的成長水平，使其與我們的長期目標保持一致。我們的目標是始終擁有足夠的產能來滿足我們預期的需求，而不是超出預期，以便我們能夠在現有資源範圍內生存。

Our planning process for adding new capacity has multiple checkpoints before we are fully committed to the cost of new capacity. We are constantly updating our demand forecast and only commit to new increments of capacity when it becomes apparent that we will need them. Because of the infrastructure, we have already built in Ennis, Kitchen South and Pennsylvania, all of our current projects are within the scope of the buildings and sites that we have already developed and the Ennis Phase 2 building that will be completed by mid-next year.

在我們完全承擔新產能的成本之前，我們增加新產能的規劃流程有多個檢查點。我們不斷更新需求預測，只有當明顯需要時才會承諾增加新的產能。由於我們已經在恩尼斯、基欽南區和賓夕法尼亞州建設了基礎設施，我們目前的所有項目都在我們已經開發的建築物和場地以及將於明年年中完工的恩尼斯二期建築的範圍內。

We can add 4 lines in that space, 2 more lines in the existing space at Kitchen South and are developing a plan to install another line in storage space in Kitchens 2 in Pennsylvania. Effectively, that means that we are only making capital commitments 18 months out from when we need the capacity at this point and we'll not have to invest in new building or site infrastructure beyond Ennis Phase 2 for the next year or 2. And we are only adding staffing 90 days out from when we need it. We believe that gives us flexibility to scale our capacity while simultaneously managing our cash very closely for the next few years.

我們可以在該空間添加 4 條線路，在南廚房現有的空間中再添加 2 條線路，並且正在製定計劃在賓夕法尼亞州 2 號廚房的存儲空間中安裝另一條線路。實際上，這意味著我們只在需要產能前 18 個月做出資本承諾，並且在未來一兩年內，我們不必在 Ennis 第二階段之後投資新建築或場地基礎設施。我們相信，這使我們能夠靈活地擴大產能，同時在未來幾年密切管理我們的現金。

Our fast start towards our 2027 goals will also provide some added strength and flexibility on our balance sheet. With good capital spending discipline, improved margins and better operating cash flow, we remain convinced that we will have ample liquidity to commit our needs for '23 and '24. We expect to require a small amount of traditional debt financing in 2025 and we will have more than enough earnings power to support that. We continue to believe we will be cash flow positive in 2026.

我們快速邁向2027年目標也將為我們的資產負債表增添一些實力和彈性。憑藉著良好的資本支出紀律、提高的利潤率和更好的營運現金流，我們仍然堅信，我們將擁有充足的流動資金來滿足『23年和』24年的需求。我們預計 2025 年將需要少量傳統債務融資，我們將擁有足夠的獲利能力來支持這一點。我們仍然相信，2026 年我們的現金流將為正值。

In closing, we are very happy with the way the year is turning out. The management changes that we made in September 2022 and the increased focus on our operational improvement are our parents. They have put us ahead of the glide path that we need to deliver our 2027 goals giving us both some added optimism that we can meet or beat those goals and also some cushion to absorb any short-term issues along the way.

最後，我們對今年的進展感到非常高興。我們在 2022 年 9 月進行的管理變革以及對營運改善的更多關注是我們的父母。他們讓我們走在了實現 2027 年目標所需的軌道上，這讓我們對能夠實現或超越這些目標更加樂觀，同時也給了我們一些緩衝來應對途中的任何短期問題。

As we end 2023 and head into 2024, we are in a much stronger position than we were 1 year ago. Ennis is up and running, including the chicken processing operation. Our operating efficiency has improved dramatically and we see solid evidence of continuing improvement almost every day.

隨著 2023 年的結束和 2024 年的到來，我們的實力比一年前要強大得多。恩尼斯 (Ennis) 已恢復運營，其中包括雞肉加工業務。我們的營運效率得到了顯著提高，而且幾乎每天都能看到持續改善的確鑿證據。

Our customers have added a record number of new fridges that are amplifying our advertising investment. Household penetration is growing nicely and our HIPPOHs are growing even faster. And Freshpet is becoming more mainstream and more main meal.

我們的客戶增加了創紀錄數量的新冰箱，這擴大了我們的廣告投資。家庭普及率正在穩定成長，我們的 HIPPOH 成長速度甚至更快。 Freshpet 正變得越來越主流，越來越成為主食。

All of that, plus the additions we have made to our team is the recipe for our long-term success. We are very bullish about our future and our ability to deliver our long-term goals. That concludes our overview. We will now be glad to answer your questions. And as a reminder, please focus your questions on the quarter and the company's operations. Operator?

所有這些，加上我們團隊的補充，是我們長期成功的秘訣。我們對我們的未來和實現長期目標的能力非常樂觀。我們的概述到此結束。我們現在很高興回答您的問題。提醒一下，請將您的問題集中在本季和公司的營運情況上。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Ken Goldman with JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的肯‧戈德曼。

I know you're not talking specifically about 2024 yet, but you did bring up the idea that I think you're generally aiming for 25% CAGR over the next few years. I just wanted to make sure, is the messaging for next year, if there is messaging at all, you're on target for that 25%-ish CAGR in general, but you're going to do if things come in as expected, above 25% in 2023. So maybe you can still do below 25% in '24 and still get to that number? I'm just trying to get a sense if there's any kind of underlying messaging in there or if I'm reading too much into that.

我知道您還沒有具體談論 2024 年，但您確實提出了這樣的想法，我認為您未來幾年的總體目標是實現 25% 的複合年增長率。我只是想確定一下，如果有消息的話，明年的消息是，您總體上的目標是 25% 左右的複合年增長率，但如果事情按預期發展，您會在 2023 年超過 25%。我只是想知道這其中是否包含任何潛在的信息，或者我是否對此進行了過多的解讀。

I think you're reading a little much into that, Ken. The message is that our current run rate of volume and mix would support 25% growth. Our long-term algorithm calls for 25% growth. And so we fully would expect to deliver 25% growth next year based on what we can see today. We feel very good about the momentum of the business. We're seeing good consumption. There's no reason for us to think that's not going to be part of the plan.

我覺得你對此有些過度解讀了，肯。資訊是，我們目前的產量和產品組合運行率將支援 25% 的成長。我們的長期演算法要求成長25%。因此，根據我們今天所看到的情況，我們完全可以預期明年將實現 25% 的成長。我們對業務的發展動能感到非常滿意。我們看到消費情況良好。我們沒有理由認為這不會成為計劃的一部分。

And then just a quick follow-up. And if you said this on the call, I missed it, but Todd, now you're into November, presumably some discussions with vendors have been underway. What's your updated estimate for COGS inflation next year? I think you were roughly thinking on an early basis about low single digit last quarter.

然後只是快速的跟進。如果您在電話中說過這個，我錯過了，但是托德，現在已經進入十一月，想必與供應商的一些討論已經在進行中。您對明年 COGS 通膨的最新估計是多少？我認為您早期大致考慮的是上個季度的低個位數。

Yes. I mean it is too early to tell. Chicken pricing is the biggest component. We will know that in about the next month. I mentioned on the call, we're very confident we will have gross margin expansion next year. Don't know exactly what that looks like. Obviously, we'll give you more color when we report Q4. But look, I think it's going to be flattish.

是的。我的意思是現在說還太早。雞肉定價是其中最大的組成部分。大約下個月我們就會知道。我在電話會議上提到，我們非常有信心明年的毛利率將會擴大。不知道那到底是什麼樣子的。顯然，我們會在報告第四季度時為您提供更多詳細資訊。但看，我認為它會變得平緩。

Right now, things are looking pretty good. I think we'll have some nice leverage from fixed cost. We think the quality cost will continue to decline, feel great about logistics. So very confident about some level of gross margin expansion next year. It's really going to be dependent on what those final input costs are.

目前，情況看起來非常好。我認為我們將從固定成本中獲得一些良好的槓桿作用。我們認為品質成本將繼續下降，對物流感到滿意。因此對於明年毛利率的一定程度擴大非常有信心。這實際上取決於最終的投入成本。

Our next question is from Mark Astrachan with Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Mark Astrachan。

Yes. Thanks, and good morning, everybody. I guess maybe just to start. So on track and on the mix breakout, can you maybe talk a bit about how much line of sight you have on each of those? And you talked about mix being a similar sort of contributor historically. I don't recall specific breakout previously, sort of curious why and how we think about it and how much ability do you have to manipulate that higher with innovation. And on the untracked piece, at 4 points or so contribution was a little bit more than in the first half. How do you think about that on a go-forward basis? Is there opportunity for that to sustain into '24?

是的。謝謝，大家早安。我想也許這只是個開始。那麼在賽道和混合突破方面，您能否談談您對每個方面的視線有多遠？您談到，從歷史上看，mix 是類似的貢獻者。我不記得之前有什麼具體的突破，有點好奇我們為什麼以及如何看待它，以及你有多大的能力透過創新來操縱它。在未追蹤的部分，4分左右的貢獻比上半場稍微多一點。從未來發展角度來說，您如何看待這個問題？這種情況是否有機會持續到2024年？

Mark, it's Scott. So historically, what we've seen is mix has definitely been a contributor of typically around 3 to maybe 4 points per year. So you kind of add that to our volume and that's the majority of what we're seeing. And that's kind of been historical. We're starting to see it again this year. And then the other thing that we're kind of starting to obviously see a ton of expansion and is all the non-measured channels. And part of that's club, but part of that is also the online piece, too.

馬克，我是史考特。因此，從歷史上看，我們看到的是，混合肯定會貢獻每年約 3 到 4 個點。因此，您可以將其添加到我們的交易量中，這就是我們看到的大部分內容。這已經成為歷史了。今年我們又開始看到它了。然後，我們開始明顯地看到另一件事，那就是大量的擴張，以及所有未測量的管道。其中一部分是俱樂部，但另一部分也是線上部分。

Let me just add to it. One of the reasons why it hasn't been as much of a discussion over the last couple of years is because our mix is oftentimes been dictated by capacity. And this year, our mix -- we have much more of the consumer available to choose on their own. Historically, our Fresh From the Kitchen product has been our fastest-growing part of our lineup, and it's the most premium part of our lineup. And we, frankly, finally have good in-stocks and good supply of that. And so the consumer is able to naturally migrate up through the platform or through the brand franchise as they have historically.

讓我補充一點。過去幾年這個問題沒有引起太多討論的原因之一是，我們的組合往往是由產能決定的。今年，我們的產品組合更加豐富，消費者可以自行選擇。從歷史上看，我們的 Fresh From the Kitchen 產品一直是我們產品線中成長最快的部分，也是我們產品線中最優質的部分。坦白說，我們最終擁有了充足的庫存和供應。因此，消費者能夠像過去一樣，透過平台或品牌特許經營自然地升級。

And then I'll add one more piece to it is we've -- as Billy mentioned in the call, we introduced some innovation called complete nutrition. And that's, we think, a great opportunity to bring additional people in. We think that, that's going to help us with overall buy rate over time. And then we're also starting to kind of introduce mixed or bulk cases into the portfolio. So as we see that, we'll see probably buy rate expansion with that. And I think that's going to help us with kind of overall consumption, expansion of mix and in addition actually to penetration.

然後我還要補充一點，正如比利在電話中提到的，我們引入了一些稱為「完全營養」的創新。我們認為，這是一個吸引更多人才的好機會。然後我們也開始將混合或批量案例引入投資組合中。因此，正如我們所看到的，我們可能會看到購買率隨之擴大。我認為這將有助於我們的整體消費、產品組合的擴大以及滲透率的提高。

Got it. And maybe related to the last piece on just the incrementality and sort of building on what you talked about on the HIPPOHs. How do you think about the recruitment? And how many nonusers are there out there to continue driving growth. And what do you know about them in terms of competition or composition of income and generations in terms of users?

知道了。或許與上一篇關於增量以及基於您在 HIPPOH 上討論的內容的構建有關。你對於此次招募有什麼看法？還有多少非用戶能夠持續推動成長？您對它們的競爭情況、收入組成以及用戶代際情況了解多少？

Yes. I mean, first of all, you'll see in the presentation we attached that the growth has been fairly broad-based. Obviously, the group that is the highest likelihood of being interested in Freshpet skews younger. So the Millennials and the Gen Zs and that's where we're making the most progress. And I think Millennials and Gen Zs today account for about 50% of the dog ownership in the U.S. and it's obviously where the growth is coming from going forward. And that's where our proposition really resonates.

是的。我的意思是，首先，您會在我們附上的簡報中看到，成長是相當廣泛的。顯然，最有可能對 Freshpet 感興趣的群體偏向年輕。千禧世代和 Z 世代是我們取得最大進展的領域。我認為，如今千禧世代和 Z 世代占美國狗擁有量的 50% 左右，這顯然是未來成長的來源。這正是我們的主張真正引起共鳴的地方。

I think the number I would call is that Gen Z is twice as likely to choose Freshpet as a baby boomer is. So we think that fundamentally over the long haul, there's a very good demographic tailwind that's going to help us with this. And we expect to see -- so we'd expect to see that cohort grow much more quickly.

我認為，Z 世代選擇 Freshpet 的可能性是嬰兒潮世代的兩倍。因此我們認為，從長遠來看，人口因素的有利影響將對我們實現這一目標有所幫助。我們期望看到——所以我們期望看到這個群體成長得更快。

Our next question is from Rupesh Parikh with Oppenheimer.

下一個問題來自奧本海默公司的 Rupesh Parikh。

So in regards to your marketing efforts, just curious how the responses to your marketing. And then as you look towards next year, just any initial thoughts on the plan for spend, whether you plan to be consistent to 11%? Or just any thoughts there as well?

因此，關於您的行銷工作，我只是好奇對您的行銷的反應如何。然後展望明年，您對支出計劃有什麼初步想法，是否計劃將支出保持在 11% 左右？或只是有任何想法嗎？

So I'll answer the response to the marketing piece, and I'll turn it over to Todd on the kind of the planned spend. So basically, I think we've been able to consistently refresh the advertising over time and the marketing and the communication. And we really have been able to see incredible responses to the marketing that we put in place. We see penetration really kind of pushing penetration, really nice, consistent growth over time, and expansion of the portfolio and bringing it, as Billy mentioned in the call, to this really mainstreaming the brand and mainstreaming the idea of Freshpet food and continuing to kind of deliver on that concept. And Todd, I'll let you talk a little bit about plan spend.

因此，我將回答對行銷部分的回應，然後將計劃支出類型的問題交給托德。所以基本上，我認為我們能夠隨著時間的推移不斷更新廣告、行銷和溝通。我們確實看到，我們所實施的行銷活動得到了令人難以置信的迴響。我們看到滲透率確實在不斷提升，隨著時間的推移，滲透率持續增長，產品組合不斷擴大，正如 Billy 在電話會議中提到的那樣，真正將品牌和 Freshpet 食品的理念主流化，並繼續實踐這一理念。托德，我讓你談談計畫支出。

Yes. I mean, still a little bit early on in the planning cycle for next year. I'm anticipating it will largely grow with sales budget for the year. That will bring us our media spend over $100 million for '24. That's the way it plays out, which obviously we're really excited about. And at that point, we'll be able to start bringing that number as a percent of sales down over the next few years. As you know, the goal is to get from 11% to about 9%. And I'm really confident we'll have enough in our media budget to be able to do that in the out years. But right now, about growing with sales.

是的。我的意思是，明年的規劃週期還處於早期階段。我預計它將隨著今年的銷售預算而大幅成長。這將使我們24年的媒體支出超過1億美元。事情就是這樣發生的，顯然我們對此感到非常興奮。然後，我們就能在未來幾年內開始降低該數字佔銷售額的百分比。如您所知，我們的目標是從 11% 提高到 9% 左右。我非常有信心，未來幾年我們的媒體預算將足以實現這一目標。但現在，我們要關注的是銷售成長。

Great. And then maybe just one follow-up question. So your operating cash flows are very strong year-to-date. I think you guys at 1 point thought you could do $30 million to $35 million and you're already above that. Just any updated expectations on how to think about that line for the balance of the year?

偉大的。然後可能只有一個後續問題。因此，今年迄今為止，您的營運現金流非常強勁。我認為你們一度以為自己可以賺到 3000 萬到 3500 萬美元，但現在已經超過了這個數字。對於如何考慮今年剩餘的線路，您有什麼最新的預期嗎？

Yes. I mean I think we'll be -- obviously depends on final working capital. We had very strong working capital in Q3. I think a little bit of that was timing, but we're doing a much better job there. I mean I'm anticipating we can do at least $50 million for the year. And look, this is one of the bright spots, I think, not only the net sales and adjusted EBITDA, but the operating cash flow and the discipline that the team has put in the last year has been really impressive. So we're off to a really good start.

是的。我的意思是，我認為我們——顯然取決於最終的營運資金。我們在第三季的營運資金非常充足。我認為這有點是時機問題，但我們在這方面做得更好。我的意思是我預計我們今年至少可以賺到 5,000 萬美元。而且，我認為這是亮點之一，不僅是淨銷售額和調整後的 EBITDA，而且經營現金流和團隊在去年所採取的紀律也令人印象深刻。因此，我們的開局非常好。

Our next question is from Peter Benedict with Baird.

下一個問題來自貝爾德的彼得·本尼迪克特。

So first question, just on the fridge placement momentum. Obviously, a big year here in '23. Just how you're thinking about that as we move maybe into '24, not just kind of the new placements, but also the second and third fridge placements. Just how are you thinking about that?

所以第一個問題是關於冰箱擺放的動量。顯然，23 年對我們來說是重要的一年。當我們進入 24 年後，您是如何考慮這個問題的，不僅僅是新的擺放位置，還有第二台和第三台冰箱的擺放位置。您對此有何看法？

Well, we've made incredible progress this year. I mean, it's a banner year, really a record year for fridge placements. And it's not just first fridges we're doing well with. It's a second and in some cases, even third fridges. We continue to see that as being a really big piece of our overall kind of construct in the future where we're adding second fridges into many of the high-volume stores.

嗯，我們今年取得了令人難以置信的進步。我的意思是，這是輝煌的一年，確實是冰箱擺放量創紀錄的一年。我們並不只是在首批冰箱方面取得了成功。這是第二台冰箱，在某些情況下，甚至是第三台冰箱。我們繼續將其視為未來整體建設的重要組成部分，我們將在許多高銷售商店中增加第二台冰箱。

We expand out -- when we do that, we expand out on some of the current portfolio on things that we have kind of lower stock and lower inventory on, sometimes in holding power over the weekend, but it also allows us to bring some innovation into the market. So really kind of think that's a really important and fundamental piece.

我們進行擴張——當我們這樣做時，我們會擴大一些目前的投資組合，擴大那些庫存較少的商品，有時會在周末持有股票，但這也使我們能夠為市場帶來一些創新。所以我真的認為這是一個非常重要且有基礎的部分。

Going forward, we're not ready to put up any numbers, but I would -- for 2024 on fridges, but I would expect a return to more historical levels. And I think over the next kind of year and maybe even 2 to 3 years, we'll have the benefit of what we were able to do in 2023 and kind of give us an incredible platform to build out the business and the entire company and the brand.

展望未來，我們還沒有準備好公佈任何數字，但我會預計2024年的冰箱銷售將恢復到歷史最高水準。我認為在接下來的一年甚至兩三年裡，我們將受益於 2023 年所取得的成就，這將為我們提供一個絕佳的平台來拓展業務、整個公司和品牌。

No, that makes sense. And I guess a follow-up to that, Scott, would be -- I mean, not all new stores are created equal, and you've got a lot of momentum with the club channel. Just curious kind of the durability of that, the duration of kind of expanded presence within club and anything else you would say in terms of partners or channels that you maybe not fully penetrated at this point?

不，這很有道理。我想，斯科特，接下來我想說的是——我的意思是，並不是所有的新店都是平等的，而俱樂部管道的發展勢頭強勁。我只是好奇這種做法的持久性，在俱樂部內擴大影響力的持續時間，以及在合作夥伴或管道方面您還想說些什麼，也許您目前還沒有完全滲透？

Sure. So look, this is the first year that we've had significant expansion in club. We've made great progress. We're going to get the benefit of that for multiple years. My constant joke for the last decade is the best time to put a Freshpet fridge in as yesterday because every single year, it delivers on same-store sales increases and growth. So I think that we'll get the benefit of the club channel and it will be oversized or supersized to some extent.

當然。所以看，這是我們俱樂部實現大幅擴張的第一年。我們已取得巨大進步。我們將在未來多年受益於此。過去十年來，我一直在開玩笑說，昨天是安裝 Freshpet 冰箱的最佳時機，因為每一年，它都能帶來同店銷售額的增加和成長。因此我認為我們將從俱樂部頻道中獲益，並且它將在某種程度上變得規模過大或超大。

So on an average bridge might go up if it goes up 15 points or whatever on a same-store sales basis, if that grows 15% after a year, it will be kind of at that higher rate that a club typically will sell. So we like that.

因此，如果同店銷售額上漲 15 點或其他數字，平均橋樑價格可能會上漲，如果一年後增加 15%，那麼它將達到俱樂部通常銷售的較高水平。所以我們喜歡這個。

The other thing is we are -- I mean, it's very obvious out there, but we have 0 Sam's clubs. We think, over time, there's a really tremendous opportunity for us to start developing a partnership with Sam's and deliver a different type of proposition that is appropriate to their customer, and really see a great opportunity for expansion over time at Sam's.

另一件事是——我的意思是，這非常明顯，但我們沒有 0 個 Sam 俱樂部。我們認為，隨著時間的推移，我們將有巨大的機會與 Sam's 建立合作夥伴關係，並提供適合其客戶的不同類型的建議，並且隨著時間的推移，Sam's 確實有巨大的擴張機會。

Our next question is from Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的傑森英格利甚（Jason English）。

I'm going to take us back to the top with the first 2 lines of questions, which I think we're all about trying to get confidence in the consensus estimate for 25% growth next year. You mentioned that you're confident based on everything you see. It's a little harder for us to get confidence because we don't see the sawmeasured contribution or the mix we used to see the Nielsen data, which is tracking below, and we know the big box pet is not particularly strong.

我將透過前兩行問題讓我們回到最初的話題，我認為我們都是為了對明年 25% 成長的普遍預期獲得信心。您曾提到，根據您所看到的一切，您都很有信心。我們很難獲得信心，因為我們沒有看到鋸木測量的貢獻或我們用來查看尼爾森數據的組合，該數據如下跟踪，我們知道大盒子寵物並不是特別強大。

So coming back on 2 points that have already been addressed, but I want to make sure we come back and hit them again because I think they're really important. The mix component, obviously, a nice contributor, you're launching a lower price per pound product. Shouldn't we expect some of your consumers to opt in for that and mix, therefore, to turn into a headwind, question one.

所以回到已經討論過的兩點，但我想確保我們再回過頭來再次討論它們，因為我認為它們確實很重要。混合成分顯然是一個很好的貢獻者，你正在推出每磅價格較低的產品。第一個問題，我們不應該期待部分消費者選擇加入這一行列，從而形成一股逆風嗎？

And then question two. I'm sorry, I was distracted. There's other news on the tape. And I know Mark asked this, but the 400 basis points, the Costco contribution. You are going to start to cycle the build-out next year and getting the same number of stores as you got this year, just net neutralizes that. It doesn't continue to add incremental growth over and above. So what's the source of the incremental growth? Like how do we keep that incremental 400 basis points coming?

然後是第二個問題。抱歉，我分心了。錄音帶上還有其他新聞。我知道馬克問過這個問題，但 400 個基點是 Costco 的貢獻。您將在明年開始循環擴建，並獲得與今年相同數量的商店，這只是淨中和。它不會繼續增加增量。那麼增量成長的來源是什麼呢？例如，我們如何保持這 400 個基點的增量？

Let me take a shot at this. So first of all, on the Costco part, we're still not in the full Costco collection of stores. I think at the end of the quarter, we were around something like 370 of the Costco or like 550. So we still have a long runway of new stores. And then each of the stores that we're in grows at a very rapid rate, and they're relatively early in their life. So I would expect that trend with Costco to continue for quite some time.

讓我嘗試一下。首先，就 Costco 而言，我們還沒有成為 Costco 旗下的整個商店之一。我認為在本季末，我們的門市數量大約相當於 Costco 的 370 家或 550 家。我們所在的每家商店都以非常快的速度成長，而且它們都處於發展初期。所以我預計 Costco 的這種趨勢將持續相當長一段時間。

And as Scott just mentioned, we are not yet in Sam's, but that certainly becomes another opportunity for us when they decide that that's a play that they like to make.

正如斯科特剛才提到的，我們還沒有進入薩姆，但當他們決定這是他們喜歡的玩法時，這無疑會成為我們的另一個機會。

On the mix part, yes, we do expect to see that some number of consumers will migrate to the new complete nutrition product. But what we've seen so far is that, that is more than offset by the migration of the franchise, especially as we've gotten complete distribution on our Fresh From the Kitchen product and some of the other more premium products we've added the lineup. So on balance, we believe that there's continue to be mix gains rather than a mix headwind.

就混合部分而言，是的，我們確實希望看到一定數量的消費者將轉向新的完整營養產品。但到目前為止，我們看到的是，這已經被特許經營的遷移所抵消，特別是我們已經獲得了 Fresh From the Kitchen 產品和我們添加陣容中的一些其他更優質產品的完全分銷。因此，總的來說，我們認為混合收益將繼續存在，而不是混合逆風。

Our data, we obviously showed you the data through the end of September. We've had the complete nutrition product in the market in October. We've seen what the sales look like, and we still feel very comfortable that it is not dilutive.

我們的數據，我們顯然向您展示了截至九月底的數據。我們十月就已將全營養產品推出市場。我們已經了解了銷售情況，並且我們仍然感到非常放心，它不會稀釋我們的股份。

That's good stuff. I appreciate that. And by the way, congrats on all the operational improvement, I should open with that because you obviously making great strides, and I want to make sure those are recognized. And it's great to see the driving margins, sticking on the new more value-oriented product. Is that margin neutral, margin dilutive or penny profit neutral, penny profit dilutive?

那是好東西。我很感激。順便說一句，我要祝賀你們在營運方面取得的所有改進，我應該以此作為開場白，因為你們顯然取得了長足的進步，我想確保這些進步得到認可。很高興看到利潤率的提高，並堅持推出新的更注重價值的產品。這是利潤率中性、利潤率稀釋性，還是便士利潤中性、便士利潤稀釋性？

It is margin neutral.

其利潤為中性。

So we think that's going to open up a lot more penetration, bring people into the portfolio and then keep some people using it on a more consistent basis. Performance has been extraordinary. It's very new and performance has been extraordinary already. And from where we're able to watch it so far, the results have been excellent. And again, I think that across the portfolio, there's lots of mix and trade-up opportunity. Those items are more available. We're adding things on the other end of the entire spectrum on our portfolio on the higher end of the spectrum. We're seeing great growth with those items. Large dog is a great example that was called out too. .

因此，我們認為這將開啟更多的滲透空間，吸引人們加入投資組合，並讓一些人更持續地使用它。表現非常出色。它非常新，而且性能已經非常出色。從目前我們所能觀看的情況來看，效果非常好。而且，我認為在整個投資組合中，存在著大量的組合和交易機會。這些物品更容易買到。我們正在將整個範圍的另一端的東西添加到我們投資組合的高端。我們看到這些產品正在發生巨大的成長。大型犬就是一個很好的例子，它也被叫出來了。 。

So we've got all that and then eventually going to, as I mentioned earlier, we're going to start adding these cases in and like these (inaudible) packs. And it's going to change the dynamics of the business, bringing it more and more kind of mainstream and main meal.

所以我們已經擁有了所有這些，然後最終，正如我之前提到的，我們將開始添加這些案例，就像這些（聽不清楚）包一樣。它將改變商業動態，使其越來越成為主流和主食。

Our next question is from Michael Lavery with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Michael Lavery。

Just looking at the household penetration growth by income bucket. And in the last 52 weeks before this complete nutrition launch, you already have that lowest end consumer household penetration up 17%. And so I guess what's driving that? And with this launch, how much higher do you think that should go? If there's already that good momentum, is that really where you see a kick up to some much faster pace? And how do we think about the magnitude of that?

僅從收入水準來看家庭滲透率的成長。在推出這款完整營養產品之前的 52 週內，最低端消費者家庭滲透率已經上升了 17%。那我猜是什麼導致了這樣的情況呢？隨著這次發射，您認為這個數字還會上升多少？如果已經有了這樣良好的勢頭，那麼您是否真的看到了更快的發展步伐？那我們要如何看待它的嚴重性呢？

So look, as part of our strategy over time, we want to make sure we have an incredibly wide portfolio of products that really span different price points, different offerings and also different benefits to consumers and what they're looking for in products. So we want to make sure we have everything out there.

因此，作為我們長期策略的一部分，我們希望確保我們擁有非常廣泛的產品組合，這些產品真正涵蓋不同的價格點、不同的產品以及對消費者的不同好處以及他們對產品的需求。因此，我們要確保所有東西都齊全。

One of the things that we have the opportunity to do now is as we get more and more scale, we have the opportunity to bring products that are even more value-oriented and build that piece out. And what we know is that sometimes, the initial price point is a little bit of a shock for some consumers. So the goal is to bring them into the franchise, let them kind of migrate through and then migrate up over time and use more of our products every single day.

我們現在有機會做的事情之一是，隨著規模越來越大，我們有機會推出更具價值導向的產品並將其打造出來。我們知道，有時候初始價格會對某些消費者造成一點衝擊。因此，我們的目標是將他們納入特許經營範圍，讓他們逐漸遷移，然後隨著時間的推移不斷升級，每天使用更多我們的產品。

Okay. That's helpful. Just for the consumers' understanding, I'm looking at your slide with complete nutrition package. And obviously, it doesn't say nearly as good or almost this could have been some of these others, but how do they understand the differentiation between this and the rest of the portfolio. Obviously, the price point conveys a bit of that message. But what's the right way for them to understand how they're different and what the value proposition distinctions would be?

好的。這很有幫助。只是為了讓消費者理解，我正在看您的幻燈片，其中包含完整的營養包。顯然，它並沒有說這幾乎和其他一些一樣好或幾乎可以，但他們如何理解這與投資組合的其他部分之間的區別。顯然，價格傳達了一點這樣的訊息。但是，他們如何才能正確理解彼此之間的差異以及價值主張的差異呢？

I mean really, it's definitely -- people make assumptions on products, a lot of times based on price points. So that's probably the #1 and leading indicator and having an aggressive price point is a piece of it. But one of the other key pieces is we have brought a little bit more whole grains, complete carbohydrates into this product.

我的意思是，人們確實會對產品做出假設，很多時候是基於價格點。所以這可能是首要且領先的指標，而擁有正面的價格點是其中的一部分。但另一個關鍵因素是我們在該產品中加入了更多的全穀物和完整的碳水化合物。

And we've kind of called that out on the front. It's very small and it's subtle, but it's very focused. And it can be -- it is to Freshpet, our incredibly high standards. It is kind of meets and exceeds our standards. I will be feeding my dogs complete nutrition on and off. It's going to be rotated in. It's an incredible product that we're proud of, but we can also offer a value, which can keep some people out of getting into the Freshpet portfolio.

我們已經在前面指出了這一點。它非常小而且很微妙，但卻非常集中。並且對於 Freshpet 來說，我們的標準非常高。它滿足甚至超出了我們的標準。我會斷斷續續地給我的狗餵食全面營養的食物。它將被輪換。

Our next question is from Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。

Actually just 2 really quick ones for me. One is -- and I think this is inferred in all the commentary made, but I think I just want to make sure clear, based on where you stand today in terms of cost inflation and productivity. It doesn't sound like another price increase is contemplated. So I just want to make sure that, as I was hearing that correctly.

實際上，對我來說只有 2 個非常簡單的問題。一是—我認為這是從所有評論中推斷出來的，但我認為我只是想根據您目前的成本通膨和生產力狀況來確保清楚。聽起來他們不打算再提高價格。所以我只是想確認一下，我聽的沒錯。

Yes. I mean, obviously, until we price our chicken, we can't say for sure. But our read of the (inaudible) would suggest that we will not be taking pricing at least not in the first part of next year. So we feel comfortable about where we sit from a commodities perspective based on the markets and the small portion of our commodity costs that we've already locked.

是的。我的意思是，顯然，在我們為雞肉定價之前，我們不能確定。但我們對（聽不清楚）的解讀表明，至少在明年上半年，我們不會定價。因此，基於市場和我們已經鎖定的一小部分商品成本，從商品角度來看，我們對自己所處的位置感到滿意。

Okay. And then the second question, in the prepared remarks, Bill, you talked about there was a discussion about kind of balancing demand stimulation with not overheating the supply chain, basically, right? So can you talk a little bit more about that? Just how do you, I don't know, like what does the dial look like? How do you turn the dials to make sure you're not overstimulating demand? And I guess, what are the bandwidth, right, in terms of just how much you could actually exceed the 25%. Just trying to get an understanding of kind of how you approach that?

好的。然後是第二個問題，比爾，在準備好的演講中，您談到了關於平衡需求刺激與不讓供應鏈過熱的討論，對嗎？那麼您能就此再進一步談談嗎？我不知道您覺得錶盤是什麼樣子的？您如何調整旋鈕以確保沒有過度刺激需求？我想，頻寬是多少，對吧，就您實際上可以超過 25% 而言。只是想了解一下您是如何處理這個問題的？

Yes. I mean one of the benefits of this business is it's probably one of the most reliable and predictable businesses that I've seen in my 30-some plus years of CPG. We don't do any trade promotion, no discounting. So the single biggest driver and by far, the vast majority of the growth comes from advertising investment. And so our dial is advertising investment. It's not literally you turn it on and tomorrow, you see it, but if you turn it on, you start adding the users that will contribute meaningful volume over the coming months.

是的。我的意思是，這項業務的優勢之一是，它可能是我在 CPG 工作 30 多年來見過的最可靠、最可預測的業務之一。我們不做任何促銷，也不打折。因此，最大的驅動力和迄今為止絕大部分的成長都來自於廣告投資。所以我們的撥號是廣告投資。這並不是說你打開它，明天你就會看到它，而是如果你打開它，你就會開始添加用戶，這些用戶將在未來幾個月內貢獻有意義的數量。

And so that's the way which we can control the demand going forward. And that's where we spend the bulk of our time is literally laying in advertising spending against what we think our capacity needs are going to be.

這就是我們未來控制需求的方法。我們花費大量時間的地方實際上是根據我們認為的容量需求進行廣告支出。

So the reason we made the comment in the prepared remarks about the dialing it in fairly closely is 3 or 4 years ago, we would put a line in and it would give us capacity that would last us a year or 2 years and you're kind of fine on it. Now at the scale that we've achieved, when you put a line in, you can pretty quickly burn through the capacity of a line in less than a year.

因此，我們之所以在準備好的評論中對撥打電話進行相當密切的評論，是因為 3 或 4 年前，我們會接入一條線路，它將為我們提供可持續一年或兩年的容量，而您對此感到滿意。現在，以我們所達到的規模來說，當你投入一條生產線時，很快就會在不到一年的時間內耗盡一條生產線的容量。

And so we can't afford to have this thing planned for 25% and deliver 33% on an ongoing basis, because you just won't have the infrastructure in place. You just won't have the equipment installed.

因此，我們無法承擔以 25% 進行規劃並持續交付 33% 的成本，因為您不會擁有到位的基礎設施。您只是沒有安裝該設備。

Lead times on equipment are long, construction takes a long time. Staffing is quick. We can staff up in 90 days. But if we're going to suddenly outperform our expectations by 5 or 10 points as we might have done over the last couple of years, we could find ourselves short shipping again, we don't want to do that.

設備交付週期長，施工需要很長時間。人員配備很快。我們可以在 90 天內配備人員。但如果我們的表現突然超出預期 5 到 10 個百分點，就像過去幾年那樣，我們可能會再次發現自己的運輸短缺，我們不想那樣做。

So at this point, we're very comfortable planning for, call it, 25% growth. There's a little bit of headroom on top of that, and we plan for a little bit of headroom on top of that, but we certainly don't want to be pushing over 30%.

因此目前我們非常樂意規劃25%的成長。在此基礎上還有一點餘地，我們也計劃在此基礎上再留一點點餘地，但我們肯定不想超過 30%。

Our next question is from Bill Chappell with Truist Securities.

下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Bill Chappell。

Just a little bit more on pricing, especially move to next year. One, do you think you get back to a normal cadence of just doing some pricing every year going forward? Or is there some pushback on the pricing you've taken so far? And then two, and probably more importantly, I know you have a different product than the dry goods. But I mean do you see some increased promotions in kind of the competitive landscape that may change your pricing attitude? Or do you think everybody is going to kind of hold the line even at the premium, super premium side as we move into '24?

關於定價還有更多消息，尤其是明年的定價。第一，您是否認為今後您會恢復到每年都進行一些定價的正常節奏？或者你們迄今為止採取的定價策略是否存在一些阻力？其次，也許更重要的是，我知道你們的產品與乾貨不同。但我的意思是，您是否看到競爭格局中促銷活動的增加可能會改變您的定價態度？或者您認為，隨著我們進入24世紀，即使在高端、超高端領域，每個人都會保持原有的路線？

Bill, so let me talk about the category first. I have -- as volume has kind of gotten softer we are looking at it.

比爾，那麼讓我先談談類別。我已經 — — 由於交易量已經變得不那麼強勁，我們正在關注它。

Category volume.

類別卷。

Yes. Yes, I'm sorry. Yes, as the category volume has gotten softer, we are kind of all over it, and we keep waiting for someone to really kind of start pressing on the pricing dial. Have not seen it, have not seen increased promotion, there's been very, very little kind of growth there. It's been interesting. At some point, I think you'll see a bit of it. But we haven't seen anything yet. But again, I think that historically, you'll see some people kind of layer some of it in, but not a lot.

是的。是的，很抱歉。是的，隨著類別數量的減少，我們對此進行了全方位的關注，並一直在等待有人真正開始按下定價鍵。沒有看到，沒有看到增加的促銷，那裡幾乎沒有任何成長。這很有趣。在某個時候，我想你會看到一點。但我們還沒看到任何東西。但是，我認為，從歷史上看，你會看到一些人會將其中的一些層層疊加，但不會太多。

From our standpoint, I think what we try and do is we will take pricing like when appropriate and very strategically and very targeted in everything that we're doing. So will we do a couple of points here and there? Yes, that's probably going to be something that we'll always look at. But a lot of the pricing that we have done is from how we've kind of modified and changed the portfolio and the products that we brought into the market. It hasn't been just an across the board or 2% or 3% price increase. We've basically put new items in at higher price levels. And we've just kind of taken different opportunities over time in order to do a little bit on pricing.

從我們的角度來看，我認為我們會嘗試做的是，在適當的時候採取定價措施，並且在我們所做的每一件事中都非常具有策略性和針對性。那我們會在這裡和那裡做幾點嗎？是的，這可能是我們一直在關注的事情。但我們所做的許多定價都是基於我們如何修改和改變我們推向市場的產品組合和產品線。這並不是一次全面的或 2% 或 3% 的價格上漲。我們基本上已經以更高的價格水平投放了新產品。隨著時間的推移，我們只是抓住了不同的機會來對定價做出一些調整。

Bill, I would add to that, we also expect that there is fairly sizable opportunities for us to improve the gross margins from throughput and yield, we have built organizational capability over the last, call it, year that is really focused on increasing throughput, driving efficiencies in the manufacturing operation, driving efficiencies in the supply chain much more competitive bidding on some of the key components that we buy or used to just have to take whatever you could get whatever was available.

比爾，我想補充一點，我們也預計我們有相當大的機會透過提高產量和產量來提高毛利率，我們在過去的一年裡建立了組織能力，真正專注於提高產量，提高製造運營效率，提高供應鏈效率，對我們購買的一些關鍵部件進行更有競爭力的投標，或者過去我們只能接受任何可用的東西。

And now there's much more ability to do strategic sourcing. So all of those elements will help us and could mitigate the need for further pricing. It doesn't mean we won't try to take some pricing at some point, but the need for it won't be as great.

現在，進行策略性採購的能力已經大大增強。因此，所有這些因素都會對我們有幫助，並可以減輕進一步定價的需要。這並不意味著我們不會在某些時候嘗試採取一些定價措施，而是對定價的需求不會那麼大。

Got it. And then switching back to some of the questions on the club channel. And I mean at the store level, we've seen a lot of changes over the past few months, I mean I know you've got any benefit, but can you maybe give us an idea of where we are. I think Costco has 11 regions. And I'm not sure if you're in every store. And it seems like there's more opportunity in front of you than behind you, but I just want to make sure I'm looking at the right way.

知道了。然後切換回俱樂部頻道上的一些問題。我的意思是，在商店層面，我們在過去幾個月中看到了很多變化，我的意思是我知道你得到了任何好處，但你能否讓我們了解我們現在的情況。我認為 Costco 有 11 個區域。但我不確定你是否去過每家商店。看起來你面前的機會比身後的機會更多，但我只是想確保我看的方向正確。

No. We believe that there's a tremendous amount of opportunity in front of us. First of all, obviously, year 1, you get into the store. This has been a pretty amazing year and pretty significant expansion. So we're going to have the benefit of that really all next year. Plus we're, call it, 2/3 of the way into the Costco through Q3.

不。首先，顯然，第一年，你進入商店。這是相當令人驚嘆的一年，也是相當重大的擴張。因此，明年我們確實會從中受益。另外，到第三季為止，我們已經完成了 Costco 的 2/3 的銷售任務。

So there's more Costcos to come and then not only domestically, but then in some other areas, even into Canada and Mexico and even in the U.K., there's plenty more Costcos. But the biggest single piece is -- and I touched on this earlier, we're in 0 Sam's, and we think that over time, the right proposition going into Sam's could be really helpful. And provide us like another opportunity to be exposed to another group of consumers that shop for pet food at Sam's.

因此，將會有更多的 Costco 出現，不僅在國內，而且在其他一些地區，甚至在加拿大、墨西哥，甚至在英國，也會有更多的 Costco。但最重要的一點是 — — 我之前提到過，我們現在沒有 Sam's，我們認為隨著時間的推移，進入 Sam's 的正確主張可能會非常有幫助。並為我們提供另一個機會來接觸另一群在山姆會員店購買寵物食品的消費者。

Our next question is from Rob Moskow with TD Cowen.

下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Rob Moskow。

This is Jacob Aiken-Phillips for Rob. Congrats on the quarter. I just have 2 quick clarifying questions and then a broader question. So first, for media spend, last quarter, you said that it would be up $15 million in the second half. Is that still true? Or it was today an update to that? And then for like freight and logistics costs, does your guidance assume that the fuel cost and the stuff will stay where they currently are or go back to more normalized levels? Or was it include?

我是 Rob 的 Jacob Aiken-Phillips。恭喜本季取得佳績。我只想快速澄清兩個問題，然後問一個更廣泛的問題。首先，對於上個季度的媒體支出，您說下半年將增加 1,500 萬美元。現在還是這樣嗎？或者今天對此進行了更新？那麼對於運費和物流成本，您的指導是否假設燃料成本和材料成本將保持在當前水平或回到更正常的水平？或包括了？

Your question on media first. So yes, we were up about $5 million in Q3 year-over-year. We'll be up approximately $10 million in Q4 spend, only a couple of million dollars last year. So we'll be kind of in the plus or minus $13 million range of spending for Q4, which we're really excited about. I think it will give us a little bit of a help in Q4, but more importantly, get us off to a strong start as we go into 2024.

首先問的是有關媒體的問題。是的，我們第三季的營收年增了約 500 萬美元。我們在第四季的支出將增加約 1000 萬美元，而去年只有幾百萬美元。因此，我們第四季的支出將在正負 1300 萬美元之間，我們對此感到非常興奮。我認為這會在第四季度為我們帶來一點幫助，但更重要的是，在進入 2024 年時，它將幫助我們有一個好的開始。

Logistics been holding steady. We don't see a big change sequentially between Q3 and Q4. We've had a little bit of an uptick in diesel cost, not significant, but we've seen some favorability in some other areas. And so we're feeling very good about the logistics expense right now.

物流保持穩定。我們沒有看到第三季和第四季之間出現很大的變化。柴油成本略有上漲，雖然不多，但我們在其他一些地區看到了一些有利的跡象。因此，我們現在對物流費用感到非常滿意。

Awesome. And then just more broadly back to media. You said that next year, you kind of expect it to grow close to sales, maybe above $100 million rough math. But then going forward, you'll expect it to leverage with sales growth. But it's my understanding that your media and sales are kind of like 1:1 when you try on media sales. So how do you expect to generate this 25% sales growth in the later years with a lower media as percentage of sales?

驚人的。然後更廣泛地回到媒體。您說過，預計明年銷售額將接近這個數字，甚至可能超過 1 億美元。但展望未來，你會期望它能夠利用銷售成長。但據我了解，當您嘗試媒體銷售時，您的媒體和銷售額的比例是 1：1。那麼，在媒體銷售額佔比降低的情況下，您如何期望在以後的幾年中實現 25% 的銷售成長？

There's certainly some scale benefits as we get further and further out. One of the things that we've seen is the more you build out your fridge network and you get the visibility amplifying the advertising. So stores with 2 and 3 fridges amplify the advertising. And so we think that part of the reason that our advertising has gotten so effective and driven growth in excess of what we had planned for was because of the increased retail visibility. And that doesn't go away. Yes, net new fridges is a good thing, but the installed base of fridges, lighted fridge sitting in a store, double or triple fridges, continues to amplify the value of the advertising every successive year. So we think that's frankly where we're going to get some of the benefit, but also scale in the media. We'll get some benefit there as well.

隨著我們走得越來越遠，肯定會有一些規模效益。我們看到的情況是，冰箱網路建設得越好，知名度就越高，廣告的效果就越大。因此，擁有 2 台和 3 台冰箱的商店會加大廣告宣傳。因此，我們認為，我們的廣告如此有效且推動的成長超出了我們的預期，部分原因是零售知名度的提高。而且它不會消失。是的，新增冰箱是件好事，但是冰箱的安裝基數、商店中帶燈的冰箱、雙冰箱或三冰箱的安裝基數每年都在不斷放大廣告的價值。因此，我們認為坦白說，我們不僅可以從中獲得一些好處，而且還可以擴大媒體規模。我們也會從中得到一些好處。

Yes. And just for perspective, and I've said this before, I mean, if we reached the $1.8 billion goal in 2027 and get the media spend down around 9% of sales, which we expect on both as $160 million of media spend, 1 brand, basically 1 country, we think that's a powerful resource to drive 25% CAGR.

是的。僅從角度來看，我之前就說過，如果我們在 2027 年達到 18 億美元的目標，並將媒體支出降至銷售額的 9% 左右，我們預計媒體支出為 1.6 億美元，1 個品牌，基本上是 1 個國家，我們認為這是推動 25% 複合年增長率的強大資源。

Our next question is from Jim Salera with Stephens.

下一個問題來自史蒂芬斯的吉姆·薩萊拉。

I wanted to ask on the expanded distribution of the large dog offering as well as the complete nutrition. What does that look like in the fridges in store, which SKUs get taken out in replacement those? Or is that kind of a way to dangle that offer in front of retailers to motivate them to put in that second fridge?

我想問一下關於大型犬供品擴大分發以及完整營養的問題。商店裡的冰箱裡是什麼樣子的？或者這是一種在零售商面前晃動優惠以激勵他們購買第二台冰箱的方法？

Yes. It's -- as we build out new products, we typically will really have a very deep discussion with the retailers about adding a second fridge. It takes up a fair amount of space. You're typically dedicating at least a full kind of 2 feet to it in a fridge on a shelf in order to get packed out. So it takes up a fair amount of space. You never want to kind of take out existing items that are performing extremely well. So it is a really, really big push to go into our second fridges and even some of our third fridges over time.

是的。當我們推出新產品時，我們通常會與零售商進行非常深入的討論，討論增加第二台冰箱的問題。它佔據了相當大的空間。通常，您需要在冰箱的架子上留出至少整整 2 英尺的空間，以便將其打包好。所以它佔據了相當大的空間。您永遠不會想取出那些性能極為優異的現有產品。因此，隨著時間的推移，推動我們的第二台冰箱，甚至第三台冰箱的普及真的非常大。

Okay. That's helpful. And then, Todd, maybe a follow-up. I know people have touched on the logistics piece, but I think you just -- you guys delivered really impressive results there. Should we think of the current logistics expense of that kind of sub 7% rate as sustainable moving forward? And maybe you guys just delivered on that kind of better than the 2027 target on an ongoing basis?

好的。這很有幫助。然後，托德，也許有一個後續行動。我知道人們已經談到了物流部分，但我認為你們在那裡取得了非常令人印象深刻的成果。我們是否應該認為，目前低於 7% 的物流費用是可持續的？也許你們只是持續不斷地實現比 2027 年目標更好的目標？

Yes. I mean we laid out, to your point, we laid out a goal of 7.5% logistics back in February. Obviously, one of the bright spots is we've already beat that target. So yes, we think we will long term, be below the 7.5%. Obviously, if there's a big spike in diesel or lane rates from time to time, that could drive it periodically higher. But long term and we're very confident at this point with reasonable diesel costs that we will be sub 7%. And from what we can see right now, obviously, something has changed, but we feel good about being 7% or below for next year as well.

是的。我的意思是，正如你所說，我們在二月就制定了 7.5% 的物流目標。顯然，其中一個亮點是我們已經超越了這個目標。所以是的，我們認為從長遠來看，我們的利率將低於 7.5%。顯然，如果柴油或車道費率不時大幅上漲，則可能會導致其週期性上漲。但從長遠來看，我們非常有信心，在柴油成本合理的情況下，我們的成本將低於 7%。從我們目前看到的情況來看，顯然有些事情已經發生了變化，但我們對明年的 7% 或以下的成長率感到滿意。

That's helpful. And then if I could maybe sneak in one last question. On the breakdown of the household growth rate by income, I was honestly surprised to see low income up as much as it's been. Can you just give us an idea of maybe what SKUs are driving that? And then from a consumer perspective, is kind of the value proposition that you guys offer that a consumer that has a little bit tighter of a budget would still be buying premium pet feed?

這很有幫助。然後我可以偷偷問最後一個問題嗎？當按收入細分家庭成長率時，我真的很驚訝看到低收入的成長幅度如此之大。您能否向我們介紹哪些 SKU 可能推動了這個趨勢？那麼從消費者的角度來看，你們提供的價值主張是否是預算稍微緊張的消費者仍會購買優質寵物飼料？

Yes. Jim, one of the things I always struggle with in providing the data by income is it treats all income is if it's funding the same size of household, the reality is that a significant number of our consumers who fall in that lower income bucket are in the smaller sized households, they might be single and have a dog they might be, the kids may have left the nest in so that them and the dog. And so the discretionary income they have available is significantly higher despite the relatively low overall total income.

是的。吉姆，當我提供按收入劃分的數據時，我一直遇到的一個問題是，如果所有收入都用於資助相同規模的家庭，那麼現實情況是，我們相當一部分屬於低收入群體的消費者都來自規模較小的家庭，他們可能是單身，有一隻狗，孩子們可能已經離開了家，所以他們和狗可能住在一起。因此，儘管他們的整體收入相對較低，但他們可支配的收入卻明顯較高。

And given our SKU towards younger households, we have a fairly significant number of Millennial and Gen Z consumers who are in that bucket, but for whom the dog is the only thing or the most important thing in their life. They don't have a car, they don't have a spouse. Their expenses are relatively narrowly confined.

鑑於我們的 SKU 面向年輕家庭，我們有相當數量的千禧世代和 Z 世代消費者屬於這一類，但對他們來說，狗是他們生活中唯一或最重要的東西。他們沒有車，沒有配偶。他們的開支相對較小。

Our next question is from Jon Anderson with William Blair.

下一個問題來自威廉布萊爾的喬恩安德森。

Just 2 quick ones. On the productivity work, congrats on the benefits that you're delivering there. As you look to the Fresh Future goal of getting to 18% EBITDA margin by 2027, it looks like this year will come in closer to 8% from an EBITDA margin perspective. So you've got about 10 percentage points over the next 4 years. Can you talk a little bit about the path you expect during that time frame? Is it straight line? Does it ramp -- the improvement ramp in the out years and what some of the drivers are there?

只需快速說 2 個。在生產力工作方面，恭喜您所提供的成果。當您展望 Fresh Future 到 2027 年實現 18% 的 EBITDA 利潤率的目標時，從 EBITDA 利潤率的角度來看，今年的 EBITDA 利潤率似乎將接近 8%。因此，未來 4 年的成長率將達到約 10 個百分點。您能否稍微談談您在該時間範圍內預期的路徑？是直線嗎？未來幾年是否會加速發展？

And then the follow-up to that is, Todd, I think you mentioned gross margin you expect it to be sequentially lower in the fourth quarter than the third quarter. When do you think you hit an inflection point where we did see kind of sustained gross margin improvement sequentially going forward?

然後接下來的問題是，托德，我想你提到了毛利率，你預計第四季的毛利率將比第三季下降。您認為什麼時候會達到一個轉捩點，即未來毛利率將持續、連續地提高？

So let's take your first question on EBITDA margin. So yes, look, we're going to get around 500 basis points of EBITDA margin improvement this year, which obviously is terrific. We're not going to get 500 basis points each and every year and obviously don't need to. So where is that next 10 points that you mentioned going to come from. So obviously, 5 of it has to come from gross margin. We're going to have about 39.5-ish percent gross margin for this year. So we have about 550 basis points to go.

那麼讓我們來回答您關於 EBITDA 利潤率的第一個問題。所以是的，你看，今年我們的 EBITDA 利潤率將提高約 500 個基點，這顯然非常棒。我們不會每年都獲得 500 個基點，而且顯然也不需要這樣做。那麼你提到的接下來的 10 點又是從何而來？顯然，其中 5% 來自毛利率。我們今年的毛利率預計在39.5%左右。因此，我們還需達到大約 550 個基點。

So obviously, that's half or a little bit more than half of it. We talked about the media spend that will come down as a percent of sales, a couple of hundred basis points. We probably got a little bit more room to grow in logistics, but not significantly. Obviously, we've made tremendous strides there. And then the rest of it, quite frankly, just comes from SG&A leverage. If you're growing 25%, we do not need to grow head count and other expenses more than high single digits. So there's a tremendous amount of leverage in SG&A as well.

顯然，這是一半，或者略多一點。我們討論了媒體支出將佔銷售額的百分比下降，即數百個基點。我們在物流方面可能還有一點成長空間，但不是很大。顯然，我們在那裡取得了巨大進步。其餘部分，坦白說，只是來自銷售、一般和行政費用槓桿。如果成長 25%，我們就不需要將員工人數和其他費用增加超過個位數。因此，銷售、一般及行政費用中也存在著巨大的槓桿作用。

So those are the components. And we have really good visibility to it. Obviously, gross margins that the trickiest part to debt and we have to execute really, really well, but we're very confident with the scale of the business and our ability to execute and we can be more productive and efficient in our lines that, that will occur.

這些就是組件。我們對此有非常好的了解。顯然，毛利率是債務中最棘手的部分，我們必須執行得非常好，但我們對業務規模和執行能力非常有信心，我們可以提高生產線的生產力和效率，這將會發生。

The cadence -- look, the cadence is really hard to predict. Again, I think we'll -- I'm confident we'll have some nice improvement, both on gross margin and EBITDA margin next year. Again, it's a little bit too early to commit to a number. Again, I got 4 years to get 10 points. So I got to get 250 basis points on average of EBITDA margin per year. Again, very confident we will do that. But the exact cadence of that is hard to predict. But I think we'll get another nice chunk next year.

節奏－你看，節奏真的很難預測。我再次相信，明年我們的毛利率和 EBITDA 利潤率都會顯著提升。再次強調，現在確定具體數字還為時過早。再次，我有 4 年的時間才能獲得 10 分。所以我每年的 EBITDA 利潤率平均要達到 250 個基點。我再次強調，我們非常有信心能夠做到這一點。但其確切節奏卻很難預測。但我認為明年我們將會再獲得豐厚的回報。

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to hand the floor back over to Mr. Billy Cyr for any closing comments.

目前沒有其他問題。我想將發言權交還給比利·西爾先生，請他發表最後評論。

Great. Thank you, everyone. I'll leave you with this thought. The humorous (inaudible) about dogs. They never talk about themselves, but listen to you while you talk about yourself and keep up an appearance of being interested in the conversation, to which I'd add, we reward them for the patience and feed them Freshpet. Thank you very much for your interest.

偉大的。謝謝大家。我會讓你保留這個想法。關於狗的幽默（聽不清楚）。它們從不談論自己，而是在你談論自己時傾聽，並保持對談話感興趣的外表，我想補充一點，我們會獎勵它們的耐心並餵牠們 Freshpet。非常感謝您的關注。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開您的線路。感謝您的參與。