Freshpet Inc (FRPT) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Freshpet Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Mr. Jeff Sonnek, Investor Relations at ICR. Thank you. You may begin.

您好，歡迎參加 Freshpet 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）。提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我想將電話轉給主持人 ICR 投資者關係部門的傑夫·索內克 (Jeff Sonnek) 先生。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Freshpet's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call and Webcast. On today's call are Billy Cyr, Chief Executive Officer; and Todd Cunfer, Chief Financial Officer; Scott Morris, Chief Operating Officer, will also be available for Q&A.

謝謝。早安，歡迎來到 Freshpet 2023 年第三季財報電話會議和網路廣播。執行長比利·西爾 (Billy Cyr) 出席了今天的電話會議；坎弗 (Todd Cunfer)，財務長；營運長 Scott Morris 也將出席問答環節。

Before we begin, please remember that during the course of this call, management may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These statements are based on management's current expectations and beliefs and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in these forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，請記住，在本次電話會議期間，管理層可能會做出聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性聲明。這些陳述是基於管理階層目前的預期和信念，涉及可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述中描述的結果有重大差異的風險和不確定性。

Please refer to the company's annual report on Form 10-K filed with the SEC and the company's press release issued today for a detailed discussion of the risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made today.

請參閱該公司向 SEC 提交的 10-K 表格年度報告以及該公司今天發布的新聞稿，詳細討論可能導致實際結果與任何前瞻性聲明中明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異的風險今天。

Please note that on today's call, management will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, such as EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA, among others while the company believes these non-GAAP financial measures provide useful information for investors, presentation of this information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the financial information presented in accordance with GAAP.

請注意，在今天的電話會議上，管理層將提及某些非GAAP 財務指標，例如EBITDA 和調整後EBITDA 等，儘管公司認為這些非GAAP 財務指標為投資者提供了有用的信息，但無意提供此資訊單獨考慮或作為根據 GAAP 提交的財務資訊的替代品。

Please refer to today's press release for how management defines such non-GAAP measures, a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable measures prepared in accordance with GAAP and limitations associated with such non-GAAP measures.

請參閱今天的新聞稿，了解管理層如何定義此類非 GAAP 指標、非 GAAP 財務指標與根據 GAAP 編制的最具可比較指標的調整表以及與此類非 GAAP 指標相關的限制。

Finally, the company has produced a presentation that contains many of the key metrics that will be discussed on this call. That presentation can be found on the company's investor website. Management's commentary will not specifically walk through the presentation on the call, but rather it's a summary of the results and guidance that we'll discuss today. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Billy Cyr, Chief Executive Officer. Billy?

最後，該公司製作了一份演示文稿，其中包含本次電話會議將討論的許多關鍵指標。該演示文稿可以在該公司的投資者網站上找到。管理層的評論不會具體介紹電話會議的演示，而是對我們今天將討論的結果和指導的總結。說到這裡，我想將電話轉給執行長比利·西爾 (Billy Cyr)。比利？

Thank you, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. The message I would like you to take away from today's call is that the third quarter results show that the Freshpet business is delivering on its promises and potential. And as a result, we are off to a fast start towards our 2027 goals. At the beginning of the year, we laid out our new Fresh Future long-term plan that called for 25% annual top line growth resulting in $1.8 billion in net sales in 2027 and strong margin improvement with the ultimate goal of delivering 18% adjusted EBITDA margins in 2027.

謝謝你，傑夫，大家早安。我希望您從今天的電話會議中得到的訊息是，第三季的業績表明 Freshpet 業務正在兌現其承諾和潛力。因此，我們將快速開始實現 2027 年的目標。今年年初，我們制定了新的 Fresh Future 長期計劃，要求年度收入增長 25%，到 2027 年淨銷售額達到 18 億美元，利潤率大幅提高，最終目標是調整後 EBITDA 增長 18% 2027 年的利潤率。

For 2023, the first year of that plan, we committed to continuing our strong track record of net sales growth while simultaneously fixing the operating issues that were preventing us from generating the margins that we know are attainable in this business. We are delivering on that commitment and exceeding many of the targets we set, putting us ahead of the pace required to deliver our 2027 goals. This increases our confidence in the capability we are building, the strategies we are employing and our ability to deliver our long-term goals.

2023 年，也就是該計畫的第一年，我們致力於繼續保持淨銷售額成長的強勁記錄，同時解決阻礙我們在該業務中實現利潤的營運問題。我們正在兌現這一承諾，並超越了我們設定的許多目標，使我們領先於實現 2027 年目標所需的速度。這增強了我們對我們正在建立的能力、我們正在採用的策略以及我們實現長期目標的能力的信心。

In Q3, we delivered both top line and bottom line growth ahead of expectations for the quarter. We delivered 33% net sales growth, bringing our year-to-date net sales growth 28%, while we also delivered a step change in our profitability due to strong operational improvements. As a result of that progress, we are raising both our net sales and adjusted EBITDA guidance for the year.

在第三季度，我們的營收和利潤成長都超出了本季的預期。我們實現了 33% 的淨銷售額成長，使年初至今的淨銷售額成長了 28%，同時，由於營運的強勁改善，我們的獲利能力也發生了階躍變化。由於這一進展，我們提高了今年的淨銷售額和調整後的 EBITDA 指引。

We believe our fast start towards our 2027 goals is largely due to the strengthened organization capability we have built and the strength of the Freshpet consumer proposition. The team we've built is delivering improvements in our key focus areas of quality, logistics and input costs at a rate that has exceeded our projections, and which enabled us to deliver a 40.2% adjusted gross margin in the quarter.

我們相信，我們能夠快速實現 2027 年目標，很大程度上歸功於我們建立的組織能力的增強以及 Freshpet 消費者主張的優勢。我們組建的團隊正在以超出我們預期的速度在品質、物流和投入成本等關鍵重點領域進行改進，這使我們在本季度實現了 40.2% 的調整後毛利率。

Our progress in logistics has been even more significant and impressive. This is a true testament to the quality and depth of our team that is spearheading these projects and we couldn't be more proud of this measurable progress.

我們在物流方面的進步更加顯著、令人印象深刻。這真正證明了我們領導這些專案的團隊的品質和深度，我們對這項可衡量的進展感到非常自豪。

Our net sales growth has also been impressive, and is a good demonstration of how resilient the Freshpet brand is even in the face of higher pricing. Q3 was our fourth consecutive quarter of accelerating volume growth and our 23% volume growth in the quarter in combination with our typical mix improvement provides added confidence that we can continue to deliver the mid-20s net sales growth CAGR needed to support our long-term algorithm even without the benefit of pricing.

我們的淨銷售額成長也令人印象深刻，這很好地證明了 Freshpet 品牌即使面對更高的定價也具有強大的彈性。第三季是我們連續第四季銷售加速成長，本季銷售成長23%，再加上我們典型的產品組合改進，這增強了我們的信心，我們可以繼續實現20 年代中期的淨銷售複合年增長率，以支持我們的長期發展即使沒有定價的好處。

Even more encouraging is the increasing rate of household penetration growth that we have seen. While it will take some time for the 52-week household penetration measure to show the low 20s household penetration growth we have seen previously, the 13-week measure is already approaching that rate of growth. It is just a matter of time for the long-term measures to catch up. We think that will happen by midyear next year.

更令人鼓舞的是我們看到的家庭滲透率成長速度不斷加快。雖然 52 週家庭滲透率指標需要一段時間才能顯示我們之前看到的 20 多歲家庭滲透率的低增長率，但 13 週指標已經接近這一增長率。長期措施的趕上只是時間問題。我們認為這將在明年年中發生。

While we are off to a great start, we are also mindful that we still have a lot of work to do to achieve our 2027 goal, particularly our margin goals. Our adjusted gross margin is still 500 basis points below our long-term goal and our adjusted EBITDA margin is also well below where it needs to be. We need to stay focused on improving our operational performance while simultaneously adding capacity to keep up with the strong growth we expect to deliver.

雖然我們有了一個好的開端，但我們也注意到，要實現 2027 年的目標，尤其是利潤率目標，我們還有很多工作要做。我們調整後的毛利率仍比我們的長期目標低 500 個基點，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率也遠低於其所需的水平。我們需要繼續專注於提高營運績效，同時增加產能以跟上我們預期實現的強勁成長。

I want to provide a few additional highlights from the quarter, and then I will turn it over to Todd to provide the key details and our updated outlook for the balance of the year. First, net sales growth. The net sales growth in the quarter was particularly strong and ahead of our expectations. It was largely due to strong 23% volume growth that in combination with typical mix improvements is equal to our long-term 25% growth target. This growth was due to continued household penetration growth and even stronger growth in the number of heavy and super heavy users, what we call HIPPOHs. Those HIPPOHs account for 88% of our volume today. The number of HIPPOHs in the Freshpet franchise grew 25% in the past year and their buying rate grew 6%, demonstrating the disproportional impact that these targeted consumers have on our growth.

我想提供本季度的一些額外亮點，然後我將把它交給托德提供關鍵細節和我們對今年剩餘時間的最新展望。首先，淨銷售額成長。本季的淨銷售額成長尤其強勁，超出了我們的預期。這主要歸功於 23% 的銷售強勁成長，再加上典型的產品組合改進，相當於我們 25% 的長期成長目標。這一增長歸因於家庭滲透率的持續增長，以及重度和超重度用戶（我們稱之為 HIPPOH）數量的強勁增長。這些 HIPPOH 占我們今天產量的 88%。去年，Freshpet 特許經營店中的 HIPPOH 數量增加了 25%，購買率增加了 6%，這表明這些目標消費者對我們的成長產生了不成比例的影響。

We also saw particularly strong growth in the unmeasured channels, such as Club with net sales up more than 100% in the unmeasured portion of that channel. What is particularly exciting is that 65% of the households, who buy Freshpet in that channel are completely new to Freshpet, and they buy in large quantities. The strong growth in the unmeasured channels more than offset the slower growth we've been experiencing in the pet specialty channel.

我們也看到未衡量通路的成長特別強勁，例如 Club 在該通路的未衡量部分的淨銷售額成長了 100% 以上。尤其令人興奮的是，在該通路購買Freshpet的家庭中有65%是全新的Freshpet，而且購買量很大。未衡量管道的強勁成長足以抵消我們在寵物專業管道中經歷的較慢成長。

Second, fridge placements. We placed 4,464 new, upgraded and second or third fridges year-to-date, a record for us by a large margin. 20% of all of our 26,385 stores now have multiple fridges. We are on a pace that is well ahead of our initial commitment to place 5,000 fridges this year and already have the 1.7 million cubic feet at retail that we projected for the year. This is a testament to retailers' belief in Freshpet as a scalable and innovative category leader and that we represent a significant growth opportunity for them.

其次，冰箱的擺放位置。今年迄今為止，我們放置了 4,464 台新的、升級的以及第二台或第三台冰箱，大幅創下了我們的記錄。現在，我們 26,385 家商店中有 20% 擁有多台冰箱。我們的進度遠遠超出了我們今年放置 5,000 台冰箱的最初承諾，並且已經擁有我們預計今年 170 萬立方英尺的零售空間。這證明了零售商相信 Freshpet 作為可擴展和創新的品類領導者，並且我們為他們提供了重要的成長機會。

Third, e-commerce. We continue to see strong growth in the e-commerce channel, which we define as curbside pickup, delivery and DTC. E-commerce now accounts for 9.5% of our total volume and 88% of that volume goes through our fridge network, either via curbside pickup or a store-based delivery option like Instacart, which grew 48% versus a year ago. E-commerce sales were up 62% versus a year ago, and we continue to believe this will grow as consumers increasingly adopt new and convenient grocery pickup and delivery services.

第三，電子商務。我們繼續看到電子商務通路的強勁成長，我們將其定義為路邊取貨、送貨和 DTC。電子商務現在占我們總銷量的 9.5%，其中 88% 透過我們的冰箱網絡，要么通過路邊提貨，要么通過 Instacart 等基於商店的送貨選項，Instacart 比一年前增長了 48%。電子商務銷售額比一年前增長了 62%，我們仍然相信，隨著消費者越來越多地採用新的、便捷的雜貨提貨和送貨服務，這一數字將會增長。

Fourth, innovation. We launched our large dog offering in a limited number of stores earlier this year and it is off to a fast start with its dollar velocity within our top 10 items where it is in distribution. Based on these strong results and the ability of this item to expand our reach into larger dogs, we expect to expand distribution of this product next year.

第四，創新。今年早些時候，我們在有限數量的商店推出了大型狗產品，而且它的美元流通速度很快，成為我們分銷的十大產品之一。基於這些強勁的成果以及該產品將我們的業務範圍擴大到大型犬的能力，我們預計明年將擴大該產品的分銷。

Additionally, we launched Freshpet Complete Nutrition roles in October. Complete Nutrition offers the Freshpet experience at a good entry point value. We expect it to be in more than 9,500 stores by the end of the year. We think this will make Freshpet more accessible to interested, but more value-conscious consumers.

此外，我們在 10 月推出了 Freshpet Complete Nutrition 角色。 Complete Nutrition 以良好的入門價值提供 Freshpet 體驗。我們預計到今年年底產品將出現在超過 9,500 家商店中。我們認為這將使 Freshpet 更容易被感興趣但更注重價值的消費者所接受。

Fifth, quality, logistics and input costs. As we told you at the beginning of the year, these costs would be our key focus areas as we sought to improve our operations and we are making good progress. In the quarter, we improved the collective total of these costs by 780 basis points versus a year ago. Within that, our quality costs were 190 basis points better than a year ago.

第五，品質、物流和投入成本。正如我們在年初告訴您的那樣，這些成本將是我們的重點領域，因為我們尋求改善我們的運營，我們正在取得良好進展。本季度，我們將這些成本總計比一年前提高了 780 個基點。其中，我們的品質成本比一年前提高了 190 個基點。

Our progress in logistics has been exceptional, improving by 540 basis points versus a year ago. While we are benefiting from the macro environment, which has created less demand for trucking capacity and lower fuel costs than last year, we believe that only about 1/3 of our improvement is due to those factors, whereas the remaining 2/3 is due to actions we have directly taken.

我們在物流方面的進展非常出色，比一年前提高了 540 個基點。雖然我們受惠於宏觀環境，與去年相比，卡車運力需求減少，燃料成本降低，但我們認為，只有約 1/3 的改善歸功於這些因素，而其餘 2/3 則歸因於這些因素。我們直接採取的行動。

For perspective, despite shipping 23% more pounds of product in Q3 of this year than in Q3 last year, the total number of miles of freight we paid for was down by 28%. This was due to higher fill rates, larger order size after our June implementation of bracket pricing and the ramp-up of our second DC. And we have leveraged our increasing scale to get lower lane rates relative to the market than we have gotten previously. This is a clear demonstration of the incremental capability we have built in logistics over the past year.

從長遠來看，儘管今年第三季的產品運輸量比去年第三季增加了 23%，但我們支付的運費總數卻下降了 28%。這是由於我們 6 月實施分級定價以及第二個 DC 的增加後，填充率更高、訂單規模更大。我們利用不斷擴大的規模，獲得了比之前更低的市場車道費率。這清楚地表明了我們過去一年在物流方面所建立的增量能力。

And sixth, capacity. We've successfully added incremental staffing at all 3 production sites over the past 90 days, and that is delivering the necessary capacity to support our current rate of growth and is positioning us well to meet the demand we anticipate in Q1 of 2024. Further, the second bag line in ENNIS has begun commissioning and is on track to begin producing available product by the end of the year. Construction of Phase 2 in ENNIS is on track or slightly ahead of schedule and that will enable us to begin producing rolls in the first line in Phase 2 by the end of Q3 of next year.

第六，容量。在過去90 天內，我們成功地在所有3 個生產基地增加了人員配置，這提供了必要的產能來支持我們當前的成長率，並使我們能夠很好地滿足我們在2024 年第一季的預期需求。此外， ENNIS 的第二條袋子生產線已開始調試，並預計在今年年底前開始生產可用的產品。 ENNIS 二期工程的建設工作正在按計劃進行或稍稍提前，這將使我們能夠在明年第三季末開始在二期工程的第一條生產線上生產卷材。

In total, we believe we will have adequate capacity to support our near-term growth that underpins our 2027 algorithm and we'll be well positioned to support growth going forward.

總的來說，我們相信我們將有足夠的能力來支持我們的近期成長，從而支撐我們的 2027 年演算法，並且我們將處於有利地位來支持未來的成長。

In summary, we believe we are making very good progress and remain very bullish on the year and our long-term prospects. I would like to end my comments with some thoughts on the overall pet food category. There's been lots of discussion lately about the impact on household budgets and the influence on category volumes given higher category pricing and a wide variety of macroeconomic factors such as the resumption of student loan payments, interest rates and inflation.

總而言之，我們相信我們正在取得非常好的進展，並對今年和我們的長期前景仍然非常樂觀。我想以對整個寵物食品類別的一些想法來結束我的評論。鑑於更高的品類定價以及恢復學生貸款支付、利率和通貨膨脹等各種宏觀經濟因素，最近有很多關於對家庭預算的影響以及對品類數量的影響的討論。

Clearly, the results we presented today suggest that an increasing number of consumers are still willing to pay for high-quality pet foods and demand for those types of products is growing. We are seeing strong growth across all age groups and income cohorts and we believe that the most important variables in determining what kind of pet food you feed your dog or not income or age, but how important your dog is to you? And how much you focus on their health and well-being.

顯然，我們今天公佈的結果表明，越來越多的消費者仍然願意為高品質的寵物食品付費，並且對此類產品的需求正在增長。我們看到所有年齡層和收入群體的強勁增長，我們相信決定您給狗吃哪種寵物食品的最重要變量不是收入或年齡，但您的狗對您有多重要？以及您對他們的健康和福祉的關注程度。

The cost of feed Freshpet is only about $2 per day for the average 30-pound dog. That expense for high-quality pet food has shown over time to be amongst the last things that someone cuts from their household budget when times are tight.

對於平均 30 磅重的狗來說，Freshpet 的飼料成本僅為每天 2 美元左右。隨著時間的推移，高品質寵物食品的費用已成為人們在經濟拮据時最不從家庭預算中削減的開支之一。

When you contrast our performance with a wider CPG narrative about consumer trade down that is occurring, this suggests that there is a bifurcation in the category with the high-end sliding and downward pressure less differentiated brands. It is true that our volume is becoming increasingly concentrated amongst our heaviest users, HIPPOHs, who also happen to be our fastest-growing group of users.

當你將我們的業績與正在發生的消費者貿易下降的更廣泛的消費品描述進行對比時，這表明該類別存在分歧，高端品牌的下滑和下行壓力較小。確實，我們的數量越來越集中在我們最大的用戶 HIPPOH 中，他們也恰好是我們成長最快的用戶群。

We view that trend to be favorable, demonstrating high levels of satisfaction and making our business increasingly main meal instead of a topping or mixer. We now have almost 4 million HIPPOHs in our franchise, double the number we had 3 years ago, and they are consuming an average of $235 of Freshpet per year. That group has grown 25% over the past year and they now account for 88% of our business.

我們認為這種趨勢是有利的，表現出高水準的滿意度，並使我們的業務越來越成為主餐，而不是配料或攪拌機。現在，我們的特許經營中有近 400 萬隻 HIPPOH，是 3 年前數量的兩倍，它們每年平均消耗 235 美元的 Freshpet。該群體在過去一年中增長了 25%，目前占我們業務的 88%。

Within the heavy user HIPPOHs Group, we have a subset of about 250,000 users out the size of some of the DTC brand franchises who buy more than $1,000 per year account for about 25% of our total volume. That group has grown more than 50% over the past year. We described the consumer behavior we are seeing as Freshpet is becoming increasingly mainstream and main meal. We are growing our total franchise across all ages and income cohorts. Thus, we are becoming more mainstream, and we are increasingly driving higher and higher buying rates, thus becoming more main meal. This creates a strong, loyal and very valuable consumer franchise.

在重度用戶 HIPPOHs Group 中，我們擁有約 25 萬名用戶，其規模與某些 DTC 品牌特許經營商的規模相當，這些用戶每年的購買量超過 1,000 美元，約占我們總銷量的 25%。該群體在過去一年中增長了 50% 以上。我們描述了我們所看到的消費者行為，因為 Freshpet 正變得越來越主流和主要膳食。我們正在擴大所有年齡層和收入群體的總特許經營權。因此，我們變得越來越主流，我們越來越推動越來越高的購買率，從而成為更多的主食。這創造了強大、忠誠且非常有價值的消費者特許經營權。

This behavior is consistent with the long-term trend towards the humanization of pets and consumer interest in feeding their pets, the highest quality food that has driven the premiumization of the pet food market for the last 2 decades.

這種行為符合寵物人性化的長期趨勢以及消費者對餵養寵物的興趣，寵物是過去 20 年來推動寵物食品市場高端化的最高品質食品。

Nothing in the data that we see suggests that this trend is slowing, and in fact, we believe that the next generation of users is even more interested in providing the highest quality of care for their pets and concerned about the quality of food they feed every member of their family. This is a fundamental trend that we've discussed over the years, but is being tested amid this period of economic uncertainty and the resiliency that we see is extremely encouraging for the future of Freshpet.

我們看到的數據中沒有任何內容表明這種趨勢正在放緩，事實上，我們相信下一代用戶更有興趣為他們的寵物提供最高品質的護理，並關心他們餵養的食物的質量他們的家庭成員。這是我們多年來討論過的基本趨勢，但在這段經濟不確定的時期正在接受考驗，我們看到的彈性對 Freshpet 的未來非常令人鼓舞。

With this backdrop, we believe that Freshpet has the potential to become a very large brand in a very large and growing category, and we are taking the necessary steps to ensure that we realize that potential. Now let me turn it over to Todd for the details on the Q3 results. Todd?

在這種背景下，我們相信 Freshpet 有潛力成為一個非常大且不斷增長的類別中的一個非常大的品牌，我們正在採取必要的措施來確保我們實現這一潛力。現在讓我將其轉交給托德，以了解第三季結果的詳細資訊。托德？

Thank you, Billy, and good morning, everyone. As Billy said, in Q3, we continued the strong performance we saw earlier this year and have raised our net sales and adjusted EBITDA guidance to reflect that strength. Let me break it down a bit further.

謝謝你，比利，大家早安。正如比利所說，在第三季度，我們延續了今年早些時候的強勁表現，並提高了淨銷售額並調整了 EBITDA 指導，以反映這一優勢。讓我進一步分解。

Net sales came in at $200.6 million, up 33% versus a year ago. Our net price/mix was up more than 9.5% versus a year ago in the quarter and volume measured in pounds grew 23%. The price/mix was positively impacted by the 2 price increases we took in February and last September, totaling 7.5%. The mix benefit, which we have consistently seen over time as consumers migrate to higher priced items in our lineup was slightly more than 2 points.

淨銷售額為 2.006 億美元，比去年同期成長 33%。本季我們的淨價格/組合比去年同期成長了 9.5% 以上，以英鎊計算的銷量成長了 23%。價格/組合受到我們 2 月和去年 9 月兩次漲價的正面影響，總計 7.5%。隨著消費者轉向我們產品系列中價格較高的產品，我們一直看到混合效益略高於 2 個百分點。

Total NIELSENIQ measured dollar growth was 28% versus a year ago in the quarter, but our growth in non-measured channels was much stronger and added almost 4 points to our measured channel growth, which also has been a consistent trend as of late. The growth was broad-based across channels, ranging from a low of 12% in the pet specialty channel through 30% in XAOC and greater than 100% in the unmeasured channels.

本季度，NIELSENIQ 測量的總美元成長率與去年同期相比成長了28%，但我們在非測量通路的成長要強勁得多，為我們測量的通路成長增加了近4 個百分點，這也是最近的一致趨勢。各個管道的成長都很廣泛，從寵物專業管道的 12% 到 XAOC 的 30%，以及未測量管道的 100% 以上。

Adjusted gross margin was 40.2% in Q3, 570 basis points better than a year ago and well above our base expectation. This improved performance was due to a variety of factors including improvements in the input cost and quality, the benefits of the pricing we took in February and increasing fixed cost leverage in ENNIS, all aspects of our operational improvement plan that our team is focused on.

第三季調整後毛利率為 40.2%，比去年同期好 570 個基點，遠高於我們的基本預期。績效的提高歸功於多種因素，包括投入成本和品質的改善、我們在 2 月採取的定價的好處以及 ENNIS 固定成本槓桿的增加，以及我們團隊重點關注的營運改善計劃的所有方面。

We expect these elements will continue to improve as we move forward and drive continued margin enhancement, particularly as we grow into the scale of the ENNIS operation.

我們預計，隨著我們前進並推動利潤率持續提高，特別是當我們擴大 ENNIS 營運規模時，這些因素將繼續改善。

Total SG&A was 28.6% of net sales, down from 32.2% in the year ago quarter. The biggest improvement was in logistics, where we gained 540 basis points. We spent 9.5% of net sales on media in the quarter, which represents an increase of $5 million versus a year ago. We did have some unfavorability in SG&A as we trued up our bonus accrual to reflect this year's improved performance, increasing our bonus expense versus a year ago by 170 basis points.

SG&A 總額佔淨銷售額的 28.6%，低於去年同期的 32.2%。最大的改善是在物流方面，我們獲得了 540 個基點。本季我們將淨銷售額的 9.5% 花在了媒體上，這比去年同期增加了 500 萬美元。我們在SG&A方面確實有一些不利之處，因為我們調整了應計獎金以反映今年業績的改善，與一年前相比，我們的獎金支出增加了170個基點。

Adjusted EBITDA was $23.2 million in Q3, that is considerably better than the expectation we had initially provided and was primarily due to the strong operating performance in COGS and logistics, and the better than planned net sales. For the year, we have delivered $35.2 million in adjusted EBITDA to date, well ahead of the initial expectations we set at the outset of the year.

第三季調整後的 EBITDA 為 2,320 萬美元，比我們最初提供的預期要好得多，這主要是由於 COGS 和物流方面強勁的營運業績，以及好於計劃的淨銷售額。今年迄今為止，我們已實現 3520 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA，遠高於我們年初設定的初步預期。

Capital spending in the quarter was $60 million. There is no change in our outlook for capital spending this year, which remains at $240 million. We generated around $39 million in operating cash flow year-to-date, an improvement of almost $93 million versus a year ago. As a result, our cash position is very strong with $338 million in cash on hand at the end of the quarter.

該季度的資本支出為 6000 萬美元。我們對今年資本支出的展望沒有變化，仍為 2.4 億美元。今年迄今為止，我們產生了約 3,900 萬美元的營運現金流，比一年前增加了近 9,300 萬美元。因此，我們的現金狀況非常強勁，截至本季末手頭現金為 3.38 億美元。

For the remainder of the year, we expect interest income and interest expense to largely offset each other. We believe that we have adequate cash to fully fund our growth through 2024 and we will be free cash flow positive in 2026. We also believe that we will have access to traditional non-dilutive forms of capital to bridge a gap in 2025, if it occurs.

在今年剩餘時間內，我們預計利息收入和利息支出將在很大程度上相互抵消。我們相信，我們有足夠的現金來為我們的成長提供充足的資金，直至 2024 年，並且我們將在 2026 年實現正自由現金流。我們也相信，如果發生。

As we look ahead to closing out 2023, we expect to continue the strong consumption growth we demonstrated in Q3, but the net sales growth will be impacted by the large trade inventory refill we completed in Q4 of last year. We believe that trade inventory refill totaled around $10 million to $15 million in Q4 of 2022, and we will not have any trade inventory refill in Q4 of this year. Thus, we are expecting net sales growth to be in the low 20s while consumption growth will remain in the high 20s.

展望 2023 年，我們預計將繼續保持第三季的強勁消費成長，但淨銷售成長將受到去年第四季完成的大量貿易庫存補充的影響。我們認為 2022 年第四季貿易庫存補充總額約為 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元，今年第四季我們不會有任何貿易庫存補充。因此，我們預計淨銷售成長將在 20 左右，而消費成長將保持在 20 左右。

We will continue to see an increasing rate of growth coming from unmeasured channels as the club business is doing extremely well. We will be losing the year-on-year benefit of a 2.7% price increase we took last September. So we will only have 5 points of benefit from pricing versus a year ago in the fourth quarter. Thus, volume and continued mix improvements will be the primary drivers of our net sales growth. The trends we are seeing now are already supportive of the volume and mix growth we need to deliver our net sales goal for the year and start next year strongly.

由於俱樂部業務表現非常出色，我們將繼續看到來自不可衡量管道的成長速度不斷加快。我們將失去去年 9 月價格上漲 2.7% 帶來的年比收益。因此，與去年同期相比，我們第四季的定價僅獲得 5 個百分點的收益。因此，銷售量和持續的產品組合改善將是我們淨銷售額成長的主要驅動力。我們現在看到的趨勢已經支持了我們實現今年淨銷售目標並在明年強勁啟動所需的銷售和產品組合成長。

We expect to see continuing improvement in our operating cost in Q4 as we build scale in Ennis and continue the strong delivery we have already seen in logistics and quality. However, we have added manufacturing staff in anticipation of meeting the demand we will experience in Q1 of 2024 and that will impact the adjusted gross margin in Q4. We will also incur some start-up costs for the second backline in Ennis.

隨著我們在恩尼斯建立規模並繼續在物流和品質方面已經看到的強勁交付，我們預計第四季度的營運成本將持續改善。然而，我們增加了製造人員，以期滿足 2024 年第一季的需求，這將影響第四季度調整後的毛利率。我們也將為恩尼斯的第二條防線承擔一些啟動費用。

As a result, we expect the fourth quarter adjusted gross margin will be slightly below Q3, but well above the year ago margin of 33%. In the fourth quarter, we will have a sizable media dollar investment versus (inaudible) investment in the year ago. And that reinvestment will help us get off to a fast start in 2024. However, the rate of media spending in Q4 will be below the level we had in the first half of the year, providing some incremental margin benefit.

因此，我們預計第四季度調整後毛利率將略低於第三季度，但遠高於去年同期 33% 的利潤率。與一年前的（聽不清楚）投資相比，第四季我們將有相當大的媒體美元投資。這種再投資將幫助我們在 2024 年快速起步。然而，第四季的媒體支出率將低於上半年的水平，從而提供一些增加利潤收益。

Now let me turn to our guidance for the balance of the year. Given the strong performance to date and what we have seen of Q4 so far, we believe it is appropriate to raise our guidance to reflect the higher net sales and better-than-anticipated performance on adjusted gross margin and logistics.

現在讓我談談我們對今年剩餘時間的指導。鑑於迄今為止的強勁表現以及我們迄今為止所看到的第四季度的情況，我們認為提高我們的指導意見是適當的，以反映更高的淨銷售額以及調整後毛利率和物流的好於預期的表現。

Now let me turn to our guidance for the balance of the year. Given the strong performance to date and what we have seen of Q4 so far, we believe it is appropriate to raise our guidance to reflect the higher net sales and better-than-anticipated performance on adjusted gross margin and logistics. Thus, we are raising our adjusted EBITDA guidance to around $62 million from at least $55 million, and we are raising our net sales guidance by $5 million to around $755 million.

現在讓我談談我們對今年剩餘時間的指導。鑑於迄今為止的強勁表現以及我們迄今為止所看到的第四季度的情況，我們認為提高我們的指導意見是適當的，以反映更高的淨銷售額以及調整後毛利率和物流的好於預期的表現。因此，我們將調整後的 EBITDA 指引從至少 5,500 萬美元提高到 6,200 萬美元左右，並將淨銷售額指引提高 500 萬美元，達到 7.55 億美元左右。

We are not ready to give formal guidance for 2024 yet, but you should expect us to continue to focus our strategic planning on delivering against our 2027 targets I call for 25% compound growth and an increasing rate of margin and profit growth.

我們尚未準備好提供2024 年的正式指導，但您應該期望我們繼續將策略規劃的重點放在實現2027 年的目標上，我呼籲實現25% 的複合增長率以及不斷提高的利潤率和利潤增長率。

We will have fewer start-up costs next year, and we'll continue to capture scale benefits and quality improvements in our manufacturing facilities, resulting in further improvement in our adjusted gross margin next year. And we will continue to capture scale and efficiency benefits in SG&A. It is important to note that our priority will remain on restoring the profitability of the business while continuing to deliver the outsize growth that investors have come to expect from us.

明年我們的啟動成本將減少，我們將繼續獲得生產設施的規模效益和品質改進，使我們明年調整後的毛利率進一步提高。我們將繼續在銷售、管理和管理方面獲得規模和效率效益。值得注意的是，我們的首要任務仍然是恢復業務獲利能力，同時繼續實現投資者期望的超額成長。

However, at the scale we have now achieved over delivery of our growth rate has consequences that we must avoid to achieve our margin targets. It can significantly impact our ability to meet demand, stretch our ability to design, construct and start up new lines and stretch our balance sheet.

然而，就我們現在所達到的規模而言，超額實現成長率會產生我們必須避免的後果，以實現我們的利潤目標。它可以極大地影響我們滿足需求的能力，擴展我們設計、建造和啟動新生產線的能力，並擴展我們的資產負債表。

In this regard, we are being very thoughtful in managing our growth at levels that are consistent with our long-term target. Our goal is to always have adequate capacity to meet our anticipated demand and not much more than that, so that we can live within our existing resources.

在這方面，我們在管理我們的成長水平時非常深思熟慮，以符合我們的長期目標。我們的目標是始終擁有足夠的能力來滿足我們的預期需求，僅此而已，以便我們能夠在現有資源範圍內生活。

Our planning process for adding new capacity has multiple checkpoints before we are fully committed to the cost of new capacity. We are constantly updating our demand forecast and only commit to new increments of capacity when it becomes apparent that we will need them. Because of the infrastructure, we have already built in Ennis, Kitchen South and Pennsylvania, all of our current projects are within the scope of the buildings and sites that we have already developed and the Ennis Phase 2 building that will be completed by mid-next year.

在我們完全承擔新產能的成本之前，我們增加新產能的規劃流程有多個檢查點。我們不斷更新我們的需求預測，並且只有在我們明顯需要它們時才承諾增加新的產能。由於基礎設施的原因，我們已經在Ennis、Kitchen South和Pennsylvania建好了，我們目前所有的項目都在我們已經開發的建築和場地範圍內，以及將於明年中旬完工的Ennis二期建築年。

We can add 4 lines in that space, 2 more lines in the existing space at Kitchen South and are developing a plan to install another line in storage space in Kitchens 2 in Pennsylvania. Effectively, that means that we are only making capital commitments 18 months out from when we need the capacity at this point and we'll not have to invest in new building or site infrastructure beyond Ennis Phase 2 for the next year or 2. And we are only adding staffing 90 days out from when we need it. We believe that gives us flexibility to scale our capacity while simultaneously managing our cash very closely for the next few years.

我們可以在該空間中添加 4 條生產線，在 Kitchen South 的現有空間中再添加 2 條生產線，並正在製定一項計劃，在賓夕法尼亞州 Kitchens 2 的存儲空間中安裝另一條生產線。實際上，這意味著我們僅在需要產能後的 18 個月內做出資本承諾，並且在未來一年或兩年內，我們無需投資 Ennis 第 2 期以外的新建築或場地基礎設施。我們只在需要的90 天後才增加人員配置。我們相信，這使我們能夠靈活地擴大產能，同時在未來幾年密切管理我們的現金。

Our fast start towards our 2027 goals will also provide some added strength and flexibility on our balance sheet. With good capital spending discipline, improved margins and better operating cash flow, we remain convinced that we will have ample liquidity to commit our needs for '23 and '24. We expect to require a small amount of traditional debt financing in 2025 and we will have more than enough earnings power to support that. We continue to believe we will be cash flow positive in 2026.

我們快速啟動 2027 年目標也將為我們的資產負債表提供一些額外的實力和靈活性。憑藉良好的資本支出紀律、提高的利潤率和更好的營運現金流，我們仍然相信我們將擁有充足的流動性來滿足「23」和「24」的需求。我們預計到 2025 年將需要少量傳統債務融資，我們將有足夠的獲利能力來支持這一點。我們仍然相信 2026 年我們將實現正現金流。

In closing, we are very happy with the way the year is turning out. The management changes that we made in September 2022 and the increased focus on our operational improvement are our parents. They have put us ahead of the glide path that we need to deliver our 2027 goals giving us both some added optimism that we can meet or beat those goals and also some cushion to absorb any short-term issues along the way.

最後，我們對這一年的進展感到非常滿意。我們在 2022 年 9 月進行的管理層變動以及對營運改善的更加關注是我們的父母。它們使我們在實現 2027 年目標所需的滑行道路上處於領先地位，讓我們更加樂觀地認為我們能夠實現或超越這些目標，同時也為我們吸收過程中出現的任何短期問題提供了一些緩衝。

As we end 2023 and head into 2024, we are in a much stronger position than we were 1 year ago. Ennis is up and running, including the chicken processing operation. Our operating efficiency has improved dramatically and we see solid evidence of continuing improvement almost every day.

隨著 2023 年結束並進入 2024 年，我們的地位比一年前要強大得多。恩尼斯已啟動並運行，包括雞肉加工業務。我們的營運效率顯著提高，幾乎每天我們都能看到持續改善的確鑿證據。

Our customers have added a record number of new fridges that are amplifying our advertising investment. Household penetration is growing nicely and our HIPPOHs are growing even faster. And Freshpet is becoming more mainstream and more main meal.

我們的客戶增加了創紀錄數量的新冰箱，這擴大了我們的廣告投資。家庭普及率成長良好，我們的 HIPPOH 成長得更快。而Freshpet正在變得更加主流，更加主餐。

All of that, plus the additions we have made to our team is the recipe for our long-term success. We are very bullish about our future and our ability to deliver our long-term goals. That concludes our overview. We will now be glad to answer your questions. And as a reminder, please focus your questions on the quarter and the company's operations. Operator?

所有這些，加上我們對團隊的補充，是我們長期成功的秘訣。我們對我們的未來和實現長期目標的能力非常樂觀。我們的概述到此結束。我們現在很高興回答您的問題。提醒一下，請將您的問題集中在該季度和公司的營運上。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Ken Goldman with JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的肯‧戈德曼（Ken Goldman）。

I know you're not talking specifically about 2024 yet, but you did bring up the idea that I think you're generally aiming for 25% CAGR over the next few years. I just wanted to make sure, is the messaging for next year, if there is messaging at all, you're on target for that 25%-ish CAGR in general, but you're going to do if things come in as expected, above 25% in 2023. So maybe you can still do below 25% in '24 and still get to that number? I'm just trying to get a sense if there's any kind of underlying messaging in there or if I'm reading too much into that.

我知道您還沒有具體談論 2024 年，但您確實提出了這樣的想法：我認為您的總體目標是在未來幾年實現 25% 的複合年增長率。我只是想確定，明年的消息，如果有的話，你的複合年增長率總體上達到了 25% 左右的目標，但如果事情按預期進行，你就會這樣做， 2023 年超過25%。那麼也許你仍然可以在24 年低於25% 並仍然達到這個數字？我只是想了解其中是否存在任何潛在的信息，或者我是否對此進行了過多的解讀。

I think you're reading a little much into that, Ken. The message is that our current run rate of volume and mix would support 25% growth. Our long-term algorithm calls for 25% growth. And so we fully would expect to deliver 25% growth next year based on what we can see today. We feel very good about the momentum of the business. We're seeing good consumption. There's no reason for us to think that's not going to be part of the plan.

我想你讀得有點多了，肯。傳達的訊息是，我們目前的銷量和組合運行速度將支援 25% 的成長。我們的長期演算法要求成長 25%。因此，根據我們今天所看到的情況，我們完全預計明年將實現 25% 的成長。我們對業務的發展動能感到非常滿意。我們看到消費良好。我們沒有理由認為這不會成為計劃的一部分。

And then just a quick follow-up. And if you said this on the call, I missed it, but Todd, now you're into November, presumably some discussions with vendors have been underway. What's your updated estimate for COGS inflation next year? I think you were roughly thinking on an early basis about low single digit last quarter.

然後進行快速跟進。如果你在電話中這麼說，我錯過了，但是托德，現在已經進入 11 月了，想必與供應商的一些討論已經在進行中。您對明年的銷貨成本通膨的最新估計是多少？我認為您很早就粗略地考慮了上個季度的低個位數。

Yes. I mean it is too early to tell. Chicken pricing is the biggest component. We will know that in about the next month. I mentioned on the call, we're very confident we will have gross margin expansion next year. Don't know exactly what that looks like. Obviously, we'll give you more color when we report Q4. But look, I think it's going to be flattish.

是的。我的意思是現在說還太早。雞肉定價是最大的組成部分。我們大約在下個月就會知道這一點。我在電話會議上提到，我們非常有信心明年的毛利率將會擴大。不知道具體是什麼樣子的。顯然，當我們報告第四季度時，我們會為您提供更多資訊。但看，我認為它會變得平坦。

Right now, things are looking pretty good. I think we'll have some nice leverage from fixed cost. We think the quality cost will continue to decline, feel great about logistics. So very confident about some level of gross margin expansion next year. It's really going to be dependent on what those final input costs are.

現在，一切看起來都不錯。我認為我們將從固定成本中獲得一些不錯的槓桿作用。我們認為品質成本會繼續下降，對物流感覺很好。因此對明年一定程度的毛利率擴張非常有信心。這實際上取決於最終的投入成本是多少。

Our next question is from Mark Astrachan with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Mark Astrachan。

Yes. Thanks, and good morning, everybody. I guess maybe just to start. So on track and on the mix breakout, can you maybe talk a bit about how much line of sight you have on each of those? And you talked about mix being a similar sort of contributor historically. I don't recall specific breakout previously, sort of curious why and how we think about it and how much ability do you have to manipulate that higher with innovation. And on the untracked piece, at 4 points or so contribution was a little bit more than in the first half. How do you think about that on a go-forward basis? Is there opportunity for that to sustain into '24?

是的。謝謝大家，早安。我想也許只是個開始。那麼在賽道和混音突破方面，你能談談你對每個項目有多少視線嗎？您談到 mix 在歷史上是一種類似的貢獻者。我不記得之前有過具體的突破，有點好奇我們為什麼以及如何看待它，以及你有多少能力透過創新來操縱更高的突破。而在無人追蹤的部分，4分左右的貢獻比上半場多了一點。從長遠來看，您對此有何看法？這種情況有機會持續到24年嗎？

Mark, it's Scott. So historically, what we've seen is mix has definitely been a contributor of typically around 3 to maybe 4 points per year. So you kind of add that to our volume and that's the majority of what we're seeing. And that's kind of been historical. We're starting to see it again this year. And then the other thing that we're kind of starting to obviously see a ton of expansion and is all the non-measured channels. And part of that's club, but part of that is also the online piece, too.

馬克，這是斯科特。從歷史上看，我們所看到的是，混合肯定是每年貢獻 3 到 4 個點左右的因素。所以你把它加到我們的捲中，這就是我們所看到的大部分內容。這有點具有歷史意義。今年我們又開始看到它了。然後，我們開始明顯看到大量擴張的另一件事是所有非測量管道。其中一部分是俱樂部，但一部分也是線上作品。

Let me just add to it. One of the reasons why it hasn't been as much of a discussion over the last couple of years is because our mix is oftentimes been dictated by capacity. And this year, our mix -- we have much more of the consumer available to choose on their own. Historically, our Fresh From the Kitchen product has been our fastest-growing part of our lineup, and it's the most premium part of our lineup. And we, frankly, finally have good in-stocks and good supply of that. And so the consumer is able to naturally migrate up through the platform or through the brand franchise as they have historically.

讓我補充一下。過去幾年沒有引起太多討論的原因之一是我們的組合通常是由容量決定的。今年，我們的組合—我們有更多的消費者可以自行選擇。從歷史上看，我們的新鮮廚房產品一直是我們產品系列中成長最快的部分，也是我們產品系列中最優質的部分。坦白說，我們終於擁有了充足的庫存和充足的供應。因此，消費者能夠像歷史上那樣透過平台或品牌特許經營自然地向上遷移。

And then I'll add one more piece to it is we've -- as Billy mentioned in the call, we introduced some innovation called complete nutrition. And that's, we think, a great opportunity to bring additional people in. We think that, that's going to help us with overall buy rate over time. And then we're also starting to kind of introduce mixed or bulk cases into the portfolio. So as we see that, we'll see probably buy rate expansion with that. And I think that's going to help us with kind of overall consumption, expansion of mix and in addition actually to penetration.

然後我還要補充一點，正如比利在電話中提到的那樣，我們引入了一些稱為完全營養的創新。我們認為，這是一個吸引更多人加入的絕佳機會。我們認為，隨著時間的推移，這將有助於我們提高整體購買率。然後我們也開始將混合或散裝案例引入產品組合中。因此，正如我們所看到的，我們可能會看到購買率隨之擴大。我認為這將有助於我們整體消費、擴大組合以及實際的滲透率。

Got it. And maybe related to the last piece on just the incrementality and sort of building on what you talked about on the HIPPOHs. How do you think about the recruitment? And how many nonusers are there out there to continue driving growth. And what do you know about them in terms of competition or composition of income and generations in terms of users?

知道了。也許與上一篇有關增量性和基於您在 HIPPOH 上談到的內容的構建有關。您如何看待此次招募？還有多少非用戶可以繼續推動成長。從競爭或收入組成以及用戶世代來看，您對它們了解多少？

Yes. I mean, first of all, you'll see in the presentation we attached that the growth has been fairly broad-based. Obviously, the group that is the highest likelihood of being interested in Freshpet skews younger. So the Millennials and the Gen Zs and that's where we're making the most progress. And I think Millennials and Gen Zs today account for about 50% of the dog ownership in the U.S. and it's obviously where the growth is coming from going forward. And that's where our proposition really resonates.

是的。我的意思是，首先，您會在我們隨附的簡報中看到成長的基礎相當廣泛。顯然，最有可能對 Freshpet 感興趣的群體偏年輕。千禧世代和 Z 世代是我們取得最大進步的領域。我認為如今千禧世代和 Z 世代的養狗人數約占美國養狗人數的 50%，這顯然是未來成長的動力。這就是我們的主張真正引起共鳴的地方。

I think the number I would call is that Gen Z is twice as likely to choose Freshpet as a baby boomer is. So we think that fundamentally over the long haul, there's a very good demographic tailwind that's going to help us with this. And we expect to see -- so we'd expect to see that cohort grow much more quickly.

我認為我要撥打的數字是 Z 世代選擇 Freshpet 的可能性是嬰兒潮世代的兩倍。因此，我們認為，從根本上來看，從長遠來看，有一個非常好的人口順風因素將幫助我們實現這一目標。我們期望看到——所以我們期望看到這個群體成長得更快。

Our next question is from Rupesh Parikh with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自魯佩什·帕里克和奧本海默。

So in regards to your marketing efforts, just curious how the responses to your marketing. And then as you look towards next year, just any initial thoughts on the plan for spend, whether you plan to be consistent to 11%? Or just any thoughts there as well?

因此，關於您的行銷工作，只是好奇對您的行銷的反應如何。然後，當您展望明年時，您對支出計劃有什麼初步想法嗎？您是否計劃保持 11% 不變？或只是有什麼想法？

So I'll answer the response to the marketing piece, and I'll turn it over to Todd on the kind of the planned spend. So basically, I think we've been able to consistently refresh the advertising over time and the marketing and the communication. And we really have been able to see incredible responses to the marketing that we put in place. We see penetration really kind of pushing penetration, really nice, consistent growth over time, and expansion of the portfolio and bringing it, as Billy mentioned in the call, to this really mainstreaming the brand and mainstreaming the idea of Freshpet food and continuing to kind of deliver on that concept. And Todd, I'll let you talk a little bit about plan spend.

因此，我將回答對行銷文章的回應，並將其轉交給托德有關計劃支出的類型。所以基本上，我認為我們已經能夠隨著時間的推移不斷更新廣告、行銷和溝通。我們確實能夠看到我們所實施的行銷取得了令人難以置信的反響。我們看到滲透率確實在推動滲透率，非常好，隨著時間的推移持續增長，以及產品組合的擴展，正如比利在電話中提到的那樣，真正使品牌主流化，使Freshpet食品的理念主流化，並繼續發展實現這個概念。托德，我會讓你談談計劃支出。

Yes. I mean, still a little bit early on in the planning cycle for next year. I'm anticipating it will largely grow with sales budget for the year. That will bring us our media spend over $100 million for '24. That's the way it plays out, which obviously we're really excited about. And at that point, we'll be able to start bringing that number as a percent of sales down over the next few years. As you know, the goal is to get from 11% to about 9%. And I'm really confident we'll have enough in our media budget to be able to do that in the out years. But right now, about growing with sales.

是的。我的意思是，明年的規劃週期還處於早期階段。我預計它將隨著今年的銷售預算而大幅成長。這將為我們帶來 24 年超過 1 億美元的媒體支出。這就是它的發展方式，顯然我們對此感到非常興奮。到那時，我們將能夠在未來幾年內開始降低該數字佔銷售額的百分比。如您所知，目標是從 11% 提高到 9% 左右。我非常有信心我們將有足夠的媒體預算來在未來幾年做到這一點。但現在，關於銷量成長。

Great. And then maybe just one follow-up question. So your operating cash flows are very strong year-to-date. I think you guys at 1 point thought you could do $30 million to $35 million and you're already above that. Just any updated expectations on how to think about that line for the balance of the year?

偉大的。然後也許只是一個後續問題。因此，今年迄今為止，您的營運現金流量非常強勁。我想你們一度認為自己可以賺到 3000 萬到 3500 萬美元，但現在已經超出了這個數字。關於如何考慮今年剩餘時間的這條線，有什麼最新的預期嗎？

Yes. I mean I think we'll be -- obviously depends on final working capital. We had very strong working capital in Q3. I think a little bit of that was timing, but we're doing a much better job there. I mean I'm anticipating we can do at least $50 million for the year. And look, this is one of the bright spots, I think, not only the net sales and adjusted EBITDA, but the operating cash flow and the discipline that the team has put in the last year has been really impressive. So we're off to a really good start.

是的。我的意思是，我認為我們會——顯然取決於最終的營運資金。我們在第三季擁有非常強勁的營運資金。我認為其中一點是時機問題，但我們在這方面做得更好。我的意思是，我預計今年我們至少可以賺到 5000 萬美元。看，我認為這是亮點之一，不僅是淨銷售額和調整後的 EBITDA，而且營運現金流和團隊去年投入的紀律都非常令人印象深刻。所以我們有了一個非常好的開始。

Our next question is from Peter Benedict with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自彼得·本尼迪克特和​​貝爾德。

So first question, just on the fridge placement momentum. Obviously, a big year here in '23. Just how you're thinking about that as we move maybe into '24, not just kind of the new placements, but also the second and third fridge placements. Just how are you thinking about that?

第一個問題，關於冰箱的放置動力。顯然，23 年是重要的一年。當我們進入 24 年時，您會如何考慮這一點，不僅是新的放置位置，還有第二和第三個冰箱放置位置。你是怎麼想的？

Well, we've made incredible progress this year. I mean, it's a banner year, really a record year for fridge placements. And it's not just first fridges we're doing well with. It's a second and in some cases, even third fridges. We continue to see that as being a really big piece of our overall kind of construct in the future where we're adding second fridges into many of the high-volume stores.

嗯，今年我們取得了令人難以置信的進步。我的意思是，這是輝煌的一年，確實是冰箱放置量創紀錄的一年。我們做得很好的不僅僅是第一台冰箱。這是第二台冰箱，在某些情況下甚至是第三台冰箱。我們仍然認為這是我們未來整體結構的一個非常重要的部分，我們將在許多大容量商店中添加第二台冰箱。

We expand out -- when we do that, we expand out on some of the current portfolio on things that we have kind of lower stock and lower inventory on, sometimes in holding power over the weekend, but it also allows us to bring some innovation into the market. So really kind of think that's a really important and fundamental piece.

我們進行擴展——當我們這樣做時，我們會擴展當前的一些投資組合，這些產品組合的庫存量較低，庫存也較低，有時會在周末保持權力，但這也使我們能夠帶來一些創新進入市場。所以我真的認為這是一個非常重要且基本的部分。

Going forward, we're not ready to put up any numbers, but I would -- for 2024 on fridges, but I would expect a return to more historical levels. And I think over the next kind of year and maybe even 2 to 3 years, we'll have the benefit of what we were able to do in 2023 and kind of give us an incredible platform to build out the business and the entire company and the brand.

展望未來，我們還沒有準備好提供任何數字，但我會——2024 年冰箱方面的數字，但我預計會回到歷史水平。我認為在接下來的一年，甚至可能是 2 到 3 年，我們將受益於我們在 2023 年所做的事情，並為我們提供了一個令人難以置信的平台來發展業務和整個公司，品牌。

No, that makes sense. And I guess a follow-up to that, Scott, would be -- I mean, not all new stores are created equal, and you've got a lot of momentum with the club channel. Just curious kind of the durability of that, the duration of kind of expanded presence within club and anything else you would say in terms of partners or channels that you maybe not fully penetrated at this point?

不，這是有道理的。我想，斯科特，後續行動將是——我的意思是，並非所有新商店都是一樣的，而且俱樂部渠道有很大的動力。只是好奇這種持久性，在俱樂部內擴大影響力的持續時間，以及您目前可能尚未完全滲透的合作夥伴或管道方面的其他任何內容？

Sure. So look, this is the first year that we've had significant expansion in club. We've made great progress. We're going to get the benefit of that for multiple years. My constant joke for the last decade is the best time to put a Freshpet fridge in as yesterday because every single year, it delivers on same-store sales increases and growth. So I think that we'll get the benefit of the club channel and it will be oversized or supersized to some extent.

當然。所以看，這是我們俱樂部大幅擴張的第一年。我們已經取得了很大的進步。我們將在多年內受益於此。過去十年我常開玩笑說，昨天是放入 Freshpet 冰箱的最佳時機，因為每年它都會帶來同店銷售額的成長和成長。所以我認為我們會從俱樂部頻道中受益，並且在某種程度上它會變得超大或超大型。

So on an average bridge might go up if it goes up 15 points or whatever on a same-store sales basis, if that grows 15% after a year, it will be kind of at that higher rate that a club typically will sell. So we like that.

因此，如果同店銷售額增長 15 個百分點或其他水平，平均橋可能會上漲，如果一年後增長 15%，那麼俱樂部通常會以更高的速度出售。所以我們喜歡這樣。

The other thing is we are -- I mean, it's very obvious out there, but we have 0 Sam's clubs. We think, over time, there's a really tremendous opportunity for us to start developing a partnership with Sam's and deliver a different type of proposition that is appropriate to their customer, and really see a great opportunity for expansion over time at Sam's.

另一件事是我們——我的意思是，這很明顯，但我們有 0 個山姆俱樂部。我們認為，隨著時間的推移，我們確實有一個巨大的機會開始與Sam's 建立合作夥伴關係，並提供適合其客戶的不同類型的主張，並且隨著時間的推移，我們確實看到了Sam's 擴張的絕佳機會。

Our next question is from Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jason English。

I'm going to take us back to the top with the first 2 lines of questions, which I think we're all about trying to get confidence in the consensus estimate for 25% growth next year. You mentioned that you're confident based on everything you see. It's a little harder for us to get confidence because we don't see the sawmeasured contribution or the mix we used to see the Nielsen data, which is tracking below, and we know the big box pet is not particularly strong.

我將用前兩行問題帶我們回到頂部，我認為我們都是為了對明年 25% 成長的共識估計抱有信心。你提到你對所看到的一切充滿信心。對我們來說，獲得信心有點困難，因為我們沒有看到鋸子測量的貢獻，也沒有看到我們用來看到尼爾森數據的組合，這些數據在下面跟踪，而且我們知道大盒子寵物並不是特別強大。

So coming back on 2 points that have already been addressed, but I want to make sure we come back and hit them again because I think they're really important. The mix component, obviously, a nice contributor, you're launching a lower price per pound product. Shouldn't we expect some of your consumers to opt in for that and mix, therefore, to turn into a headwind, question one.

因此，回到已經解決的兩點，但我想確保我們回來再次解決這些問題，因為我認為它們非常重要。顯然，混合成分是一個很好的貢獻者，您正在推出每磅產品的較低價格。我們不應該期望一些消費者選擇這種做法並進行混合，從而變成一種逆風嗎？問題一。

And then question two. I'm sorry, I was distracted. There's other news on the tape. And I know Mark asked this, but the 400 basis points, the Costco contribution. You are going to start to cycle the build-out next year and getting the same number of stores as you got this year, just net neutralizes that. It doesn't continue to add incremental growth over and above. So what's the source of the incremental growth? Like how do we keep that incremental 400 basis points coming?

然後是第二個問題。對不起，我分心了。磁帶上還有其他新聞。我知道馬克問過這個問題，但 400 個基點是 Costco 的貢獻。明年你將開始循環擴建，並獲得與今年相同數量的商店，只是淨抵消了這一點。它不會繼續增加增量成長。那麼增量成長的來源是什麼呢？例如我們如何保持 400 個基點的增量？

Let me take a shot at this. So first of all, on the Costco part, we're still not in the full Costco collection of stores. I think at the end of the quarter, we were around something like 370 of the Costco or like 550. So we still have a long runway of new stores. And then each of the stores that we're in grows at a very rapid rate, and they're relatively early in their life. So I would expect that trend with Costco to continue for quite some time.

讓我來嘗試一下。首先，就 Costco 而言，我們仍然沒有進入 Costco 的完整商店系列。我認為到本季末，Costco 的數量約為 370 家或 550 家。因此，我們仍然有很長的新店。然後我們所在的每家商店都以非常快的速度成長，而且它們還處於相對早期的階段。因此，我預計 Costco 的這種趨勢將持續相當長的一段時間。

And as Scott just mentioned, we are not yet in Sam's, but that certainly becomes another opportunity for us when they decide that that's a play that they like to make.

正如斯科特剛才提到的，我們還沒有進入山姆，但當他們決定這是他們喜歡做的戲劇時，這肯定會成為我們的另一個機會。

On the mix part, yes, we do expect to see that some number of consumers will migrate to the new complete nutrition product. But what we've seen so far is that, that is more than offset by the migration of the franchise, especially as we've gotten complete distribution on our Fresh From the Kitchen product and some of the other more premium products we've added the lineup. So on balance, we believe that there's continue to be mix gains rather than a mix headwind.

在混合部分，是的，我們確實希望看到一些消費者將轉向新的完整營養產品。但到目前為止我們所看到的是，這被特許經營權的遷移所抵消，特別是當我們已經完全分銷我們的新鮮廚房產品和我們添加的其他一些更優質的產品時陣容。因此，總的來說，我們認為混合收益將繼續存在，而不是混合逆風。

Our data, we obviously showed you the data through the end of September. We've had the complete nutrition product in the market in October. We've seen what the sales look like, and we still feel very comfortable that it is not dilutive.

我們的數據，我們顯然向您展示了截至 9 月底的數據。我們已於十月將完整的營養產品推向市場。我們已經看到了銷售情況，而且我們仍然對它沒有被稀釋感到非常放心。

That's good stuff. I appreciate that. And by the way, congrats on all the operational improvement, I should open with that because you obviously making great strides, and I want to make sure those are recognized. And it's great to see the driving margins, sticking on the new more value-oriented product. Is that margin neutral, margin dilutive or penny profit neutral, penny profit dilutive?

那是好東西。我很感激。順便說一句，祝賀所有的營運改進，我應該以此作為開場白，因為你顯然取得了巨大的進步，我想確保這些得到認可。很高興看到利潤率不斷提高，堅持推出更有價值的新產品。是保證金中性、保證金稀釋還是小額利潤中性、小額利潤稀釋？

It is margin neutral.

它是保證金中性的。

So we think that's going to open up a lot more penetration, bring people into the portfolio and then keep some people using it on a more consistent basis. Performance has been extraordinary. It's very new and performance has been extraordinary already. And from where we're able to watch it so far, the results have been excellent. And again, I think that across the portfolio, there's lots of mix and trade-up opportunity. Those items are more available. We're adding things on the other end of the entire spectrum on our portfolio on the higher end of the spectrum. We're seeing great growth with those items. Large dog is a great example that was called out too. .

因此，我們認為這將帶來更多的滲透，將人們帶入產品組合中，然後讓一些人在更一致的基礎上使用它。表現非常出色。它非常新，而且性能已經非常出色。到目前為止，從我們所能看到的情況來看，結果非常好。再說一次，我認為在整個投資組合中，有很多混合和升級的機會。這些物品更容易獲得。我們正在將整個範圍的另一端的東西添加到我們的高端產品組合中。我們看到這些產品的巨大成長。大型犬就是一個很好的例子，也被指出了。 。

So we've got all that and then eventually going to, as I mentioned earlier, we're going to start adding these cases in and like these (inaudible) packs. And it's going to change the dynamics of the business, bringing it more and more kind of mainstream and main meal.

所以我們已經擁有了所有這些，然後最終，正如我之前提到的，我們將開始添加這些案例，並像這些（聽不清楚）包一樣。它將改變產業的動態，使其成為越來越多的主流和主食。

Our next question is from Michael Lavery with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Michael Lavery 和 Piper Sandler。

Just looking at the household penetration growth by income bucket. And in the last 52 weeks before this complete nutrition launch, you already have that lowest end consumer household penetration up 17%. And so I guess what's driving that? And with this launch, how much higher do you think that should go? If there's already that good momentum, is that really where you see a kick up to some much faster pace? And how do we think about the magnitude of that?

只要看看以收入類別劃分的家庭滲透率成長即可。在推出這款完整營養品之前的最後 52 週內，最低端消費者家庭的滲透率上升了 17%。所以我猜是什麼推動了這一點？隨著這次發布，您認為應該會上漲多少？如果已經有那麼好的勢頭，那麼你真的會看到更快的速度嗎？我們如何看待其嚴重性？

So look, as part of our strategy over time, we want to make sure we have an incredibly wide portfolio of products that really span different price points, different offerings and also different benefits to consumers and what they're looking for in products. So we want to make sure we have everything out there.

因此，作為我們長期策略的一部分，我們希望確保我們擁有極其廣泛的產品組合，真正涵蓋不同的價格點、不同的產品以及為消費者帶來的不同好處以及他們在產品中尋找的東西。所以我們要確保我們擁有一切。

One of the things that we have the opportunity to do now is as we get more and more scale, we have the opportunity to bring products that are even more value-oriented and build that piece out. And what we know is that sometimes, the initial price point is a little bit of a shock for some consumers. So the goal is to bring them into the franchise, let them kind of migrate through and then migrate up over time and use more of our products every single day.

我們現在有機會做的一件事是，隨著我們的規模越來越大，我們有機會推出更以價值為導向的產品，並打造出這款產品。我們知道，有時，最初的價格點會讓一些消費者感到有點震驚。因此，我們的目標是將他們納入特許經營權，讓他們進行遷移，然後隨著時間的推移向上遷移，每天使用更多我們的產品。

Okay. That's helpful. Just for the consumers' understanding, I'm looking at your slide with complete nutrition package. And obviously, it doesn't say nearly as good or almost this could have been some of these others, but how do they understand the differentiation between this and the rest of the portfolio. Obviously, the price point conveys a bit of that message. But what's the right way for them to understand how they're different and what the value proposition distinctions would be?

好的。這很有幫助。為了讓消費者理解，我正在看你的完整營養包的幻燈片。顯然，它並沒有說幾乎和其他一些產品一樣好或幾乎這可能是其他一些產品，但他們如何理解這個產品組合與其他產品組合之間的差異。顯然，價格點傳達了一些訊息。但讓他們了解自己的不同之處以及價值主張的差異是什麼的正確方法是什麼？

I mean really, it's definitely -- people make assumptions on products, a lot of times based on price points. So that's probably the #1 and leading indicator and having an aggressive price point is a piece of it. But one of the other key pieces is we have brought a little bit more whole grains, complete carbohydrates into this product.

我的意思是，確實，人們對產品做出假設，很多時候是基於價格點。因此，這可能是第一大領先指標，並且具有激進的價格點也是其中的一部分。但另一個關鍵部分是我們在該產品中添加了更多的全穀物和完全碳水化合物。

And we've kind of called that out on the front. It's very small and it's subtle, but it's very focused. And it can be -- it is to Freshpet, our incredibly high standards. It is kind of meets and exceeds our standards. I will be feeding my dogs complete nutrition on and off. It's going to be rotated in. It's an incredible product that we're proud of, but we can also offer a value, which can keep some people out of getting into the Freshpet portfolio.

我們已經在前面說過了這一點。它很小，很微妙，但非常集中。對於 Freshpet 來說，我們的標準非常高。它達到並超越了我們的標準。我會斷斷續續地給我的狗餵食完整的營養。它將被輪換。這是我們引以為豪的令人難以置信的產品，但我們也可以提供一個價值，這可以阻止一些人進入 Freshpet 產品組合。

Our next question is from Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。

Actually just 2 really quick ones for me. One is -- and I think this is inferred in all the commentary made, but I think I just want to make sure clear, based on where you stand today in terms of cost inflation and productivity. It doesn't sound like another price increase is contemplated. So I just want to make sure that, as I was hearing that correctly.

實際上對我來說只有兩個非常快的。一是——我認為這是在所有評論中推斷出來的，但我想我只是想根據你今天在成本通膨和生產力方面的立場來澄清這一點。聽起來似乎沒有考慮再提價。所以我只是想確認一下，因為我沒聽錯。

Yes. I mean, obviously, until we price our chicken, we can't say for sure. But our read of the (inaudible) would suggest that we will not be taking pricing at least not in the first part of next year. So we feel comfortable about where we sit from a commodities perspective based on the markets and the small portion of our commodity costs that we've already locked.

是的。我的意思是，顯然，在我們為雞肉定價之前，我們不能確定。但我們讀到的（聽不清楚）顯示我們不會定價，至少不會在明年上半年。因此，根據市場和我們已經鎖定的一小部分商品成本，從大宗商品的角度來看，我們對自己所處的位置感到滿意。

Okay. And then the second question, in the prepared remarks, Bill, you talked about there was a discussion about kind of balancing demand stimulation with not overheating the supply chain, basically, right? So can you talk a little bit more about that? Just how do you, I don't know, like what does the dial look like? How do you turn the dials to make sure you're not overstimulating demand? And I guess, what are the bandwidth, right, in terms of just how much you could actually exceed the 25%. Just trying to get an understanding of kind of how you approach that?

好的。然後是第二個問題，比爾，在準備好的發言中，您談到了關於平衡需求刺激與不使供應鏈過熱的討論，基本上，對嗎？那你能多談談這個嗎？我不知道你覺得錶盤是什麼樣子的？如何扭轉局面以確保不會過度刺激需求？我猜想，頻寬是多少，對吧，就實際上可以超過 25% 的程度而言。只是想了解一下您是如何處理這個問題的？

Yes. I mean one of the benefits of this business is it's probably one of the most reliable and predictable businesses that I've seen in my 30-some plus years of CPG. We don't do any trade promotion, no discounting. So the single biggest driver and by far, the vast majority of the growth comes from advertising investment. And so our dial is advertising investment. It's not literally you turn it on and tomorrow, you see it, but if you turn it on, you start adding the users that will contribute meaningful volume over the coming months.

是的。我的意思是，這項業務的好處之一是，它可能是我在 30 多年的 CPG 行業中見過的最可靠、最可預測的業務之一。我們不做任何貿易促銷，也不打折。因此，迄今為止，最大的推動力絕大多數成長來自廣告投資。所以我們的錶盤就是廣告投資。這並不是說你打開它，明天你就會看到它，而是如果你打開它，你就開始添加用戶，這些用戶將在未來幾個月內貢獻有意義的數量。

And so that's the way which we can control the demand going forward. And that's where we spend the bulk of our time is literally laying in advertising spending against what we think our capacity needs are going to be.

這就是我們控制未來需求的方式。這就是我們花費大部分時間的地方，實際上是根據我們認為的容量需求來投入廣告支出。

So the reason we made the comment in the prepared remarks about the dialing it in fairly closely is 3 or 4 years ago, we would put a line in and it would give us capacity that would last us a year or 2 years and you're kind of fine on it. Now at the scale that we've achieved, when you put a line in, you can pretty quickly burn through the capacity of a line in less than a year.

因此，我們在準備好的評論中發表關於相當緊密地撥入它的評論的原因是在三四年前，我們會插入一條線，它會給我們提供持續一年或兩年的容量，你是有點不錯。現在，按照我們所達到的規模，當您安裝一條生產線時，您可以在不到一年的時間內快速耗盡生產線的容量。

And so we can't afford to have this thing planned for 25% and deliver 33% on an ongoing basis, because you just won't have the infrastructure in place. You just won't have the equipment installed.

因此，我們無法承擔持續規劃 25% 並交付 33% 的費用，因為基礎設施還沒有到位。您只是不會安裝設備。

Lead times on equipment are long, construction takes a long time. Staffing is quick. We can staff up in 90 days. But if we're going to suddenly outperform our expectations by 5 or 10 points as we might have done over the last couple of years, we could find ourselves short shipping again, we don't want to do that.

設備的交付週期很長，施工也需要很長的時間。人員配備很快。我們可以在 90 天內招募人員。但如果我們的表現突然超出我們的預期 5 或 10 個百分點，就像我們在過去幾年中所做的那樣，我們可能會發現自己再次出現運輸短缺，我們不想這樣做。

So at this point, we're very comfortable planning for, call it, 25% growth. There's a little bit of headroom on top of that, and we plan for a little bit of headroom on top of that, but we certainly don't want to be pushing over 30%.

因此，在這一點上，我們非常樂意規劃 25% 的成長。除此之外還有一點空間，我們計劃還有一點空間，但我們當然不想推動超過 30%。

Our next question is from Bill Chappell with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Bill Chappell。

Just a little bit more on pricing, especially move to next year. One, do you think you get back to a normal cadence of just doing some pricing every year going forward? Or is there some pushback on the pricing you've taken so far? And then two, and probably more importantly, I know you have a different product than the dry goods. But I mean do you see some increased promotions in kind of the competitive landscape that may change your pricing attitude? Or do you think everybody is going to kind of hold the line even at the premium, super premium side as we move into '24?

關於定價，尤其是明年的定價，請多說一點。第一，您認為今後每年都會進行一些定價嗎？或者您目前採取的定價是否存在一些阻力？然後兩個，可能更重要的是，我知道你們有與乾貨不同的產品。但我的意思是，您是否看到競爭格局中一些促銷活動的增加可能會改變您的定價態度？還是你認為當我們進入 24 世紀時，即使在高端、超高端方面，每個人都會堅持到底？

Bill, so let me talk about the category first. I have -- as volume has kind of gotten softer we are looking at it.

比爾，讓我先談談類別。我已經——隨著成交量變得更加疲軟，我們正在關注它。

Category volume.

類別量。

Yes. Yes, I'm sorry. Yes, as the category volume has gotten softer, we are kind of all over it, and we keep waiting for someone to really kind of start pressing on the pricing dial. Have not seen it, have not seen increased promotion, there's been very, very little kind of growth there. It's been interesting. At some point, I think you'll see a bit of it. But we haven't seen anything yet. But again, I think that historically, you'll see some people kind of layer some of it in, but not a lot.

是的。是的，對不起。是的，隨著類別數量變得疲軟，我們有點全力以赴，我們一直在等待有人真正開始按下定價旋鈕。沒有看到它，沒有看到增加的促銷，那裡的成長非常非常少。這很有趣。在某些時候，我想你會看到一些。但我們還沒有看到任何東西。但我再次認為，從歷史上看，你會看到有些人將其中的一些分層，但不是很多。

From our standpoint, I think what we try and do is we will take pricing like when appropriate and very strategically and very targeted in everything that we're doing. So will we do a couple of points here and there? Yes, that's probably going to be something that we'll always look at. But a lot of the pricing that we have done is from how we've kind of modified and changed the portfolio and the products that we brought into the market. It hasn't been just an across the board or 2% or 3% price increase. We've basically put new items in at higher price levels. And we've just kind of taken different opportunities over time in order to do a little bit on pricing.

從我們的角度來看，我認為我們嘗試做的是，我們將在適當的時候採取非常具有戰略意義和非常有針對性的定價，我們正在做的每一件事。那麼我們會在這裡或那裡做一些事情嗎？是的，這可能會是我們一直在關注的事情。但我們所做的許多定價都是來自於我們如何修改和改變產品組合以及我們引入市場的產品。這不僅僅是全面提價或 2% 或 3% 的價格上漲。我們基本上以更高的價格推出新產品。隨著時間的推移，我們只是抓住了不同的機會，以便在定價方面做一些事情。

Bill, I would add to that, we also expect that there is fairly sizable opportunities for us to improve the gross margins from throughput and yield, we have built organizational capability over the last, call it, year that is really focused on increasing throughput, driving efficiencies in the manufacturing operation, driving efficiencies in the supply chain much more competitive bidding on some of the key components that we buy or used to just have to take whatever you could get whatever was available.

比爾，我想補充一點，我們也預計我們有相當大的機會來提高吞吐量和產量的毛利率，我們在過去建立了組織能力，稱之為真正專注於提高吞吐量的一年，提高製造業務的效率，提高供應鏈的效率，對我們購買的一些關鍵部件進行更具競爭力的投標，或者過去我們只能採取任何你能得到的任何可用的東西。

And now there's much more ability to do strategic sourcing. So all of those elements will help us and could mitigate the need for further pricing. It doesn't mean we won't try to take some pricing at some point, but the need for it won't be as great.

現在進行策略採購的能力大大增強。因此，所有這些因素都將對我們有所幫助，並可以減輕進一步定價的需求。這並不意味著我們不會在某個時候嘗試採取一些定價，但對它的需求不會那麼大。

Got it. And then switching back to some of the questions on the club channel. And I mean at the store level, we've seen a lot of changes over the past few months, I mean I know you've got any benefit, but can you maybe give us an idea of where we are. I think Costco has 11 regions. And I'm not sure if you're in every store. And it seems like there's more opportunity in front of you than behind you, but I just want to make sure I'm looking at the right way.

知道了。然後切換回俱樂部頻道上的一些問題。我的意思是，在商店層面，過去幾個月我們看到了很多變化，我的意思是我知道你得到了任何好處，但你能否讓我們了解我們的情況。我認為Costco有11個地區。我不確定你是否在每家商店都有。看起來你面前的機會比你身後的機會更多，但我只是想確保我正在尋找正確的方法。

No. We believe that there's a tremendous amount of opportunity in front of us. First of all, obviously, year 1, you get into the store. This has been a pretty amazing year and pretty significant expansion. So we're going to have the benefit of that really all next year. Plus we're, call it, 2/3 of the way into the Costco through Q3.

不。我們相信我們面前有大量的機會。首先，顯然，第一年，你進入商店。這是非常驚人的一年，也是非常顯著的擴張。因此，我們明年都會真正受益於此。另外，第三季度，我們有 2/3 的顧客進入 Costco。

So there's more Costcos to come and then not only domestically, but then in some other areas, even into Canada and Mexico and even in the U.K., there's plenty more Costcos. But the biggest single piece is -- and I touched on this earlier, we're in 0 Sam's, and we think that over time, the right proposition going into Sam's could be really helpful. And provide us like another opportunity to be exposed to another group of consumers that shop for pet food at Sam's.

因此，將會有更多的好市多 (Costco) 出現，不僅在國內，而且在其他一些地區，甚至在加拿大和墨西哥，甚至在英國，也會有更多的好市多 (Costco)。但最重要的一點是——我之前談到過這一點，我們處於 0 Sam’s 狀態，我們認為隨著時間的推移，進入 Sam’s 的正確主張可能會非常有幫助。並為我們提供了另一個機會，讓我們接觸到在山姆購買寵物食品的另一群消費者。

Our next question is from Rob Moskow with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Rob Moskow 和 TD Cowen。

This is Jacob Aiken-Phillips for Rob. Congrats on the quarter. I just have 2 quick clarifying questions and then a broader question. So first, for media spend, last quarter, you said that it would be up $15 million in the second half. Is that still true? Or it was today an update to that? And then for like freight and logistics costs, does your guidance assume that the fuel cost and the stuff will stay where they currently are or go back to more normalized levels? Or was it include?

我是雅各布·艾肯-菲利普斯（Rob）。恭喜本季。我只有兩個快速澄清的問題，然後是一個更廣泛的問題。首先，對於媒體支出，上個季度，您說下半年將增加 1500 萬美元。這仍然是真的嗎？或者今天是對此的更新？然後，對於貨運和物流成本等，您的指導是否假設燃料成本和材料將保持在當前水平或回到更正常的水平？還是包括在內？

Your question on media first. So yes, we were up about $5 million in Q3 year-over-year. We'll be up approximately $10 million in Q4 spend, only a couple of million dollars last year. So we'll be kind of in the plus or minus $13 million range of spending for Q4, which we're really excited about. I think it will give us a little bit of a help in Q4, but more importantly, get us off to a strong start as we go into 2024.

你先向媒體提問。所以，是的，我們第三季年增了約 500 萬美元。我們第四季的支出將增加約 1,000 萬美元，而去年僅增加了幾百萬美元。因此，我們第四季的支出將在正負 1300 萬美元範圍內，對此我們感到非常興奮。我認為這會給我們第四季度帶來一些幫助，但更重要的是，讓我們在進入 2024 年時有一個好的開始。

Logistics been holding steady. We don't see a big change sequentially between Q3 and Q4. We've had a little bit of an uptick in diesel cost, not significant, but we've seen some favorability in some other areas. And so we're feeling very good about the logistics expense right now.

物流保持穩定。我們沒有看到第三季和第四季之間出現重大變化。我們的柴油成本略有上升，但幅度不大，但我們在其他一些領域看到了一些有利的情況。因此，我們現在對物流費用感覺非常好。

Awesome. And then just more broadly back to media. You said that next year, you kind of expect it to grow close to sales, maybe above $100 million rough math. But then going forward, you'll expect it to leverage with sales growth. But it's my understanding that your media and sales are kind of like 1:1 when you try on media sales. So how do you expect to generate this 25% sales growth in the later years with a lower media as percentage of sales?

驚人的。然後更廣泛地回到媒體。您說過，明年您預計銷售額將接近成長，粗略計算可能超過 1 億美元。但展望未來，您會期望它能夠帶動銷售成長。但據我了解，當你嘗試媒體銷售時，你的媒體和銷售有點像 1:1。那麼，在媒體佔銷售額百分比較低的情況下，您預計如何在未來幾年實現 25% 的銷售額成長？

There's certainly some scale benefits as we get further and further out. One of the things that we've seen is the more you build out your fridge network and you get the visibility amplifying the advertising. So stores with 2 and 3 fridges amplify the advertising. And so we think that part of the reason that our advertising has gotten so effective and driven growth in excess of what we had planned for was because of the increased retail visibility. And that doesn't go away. Yes, net new fridges is a good thing, but the installed base of fridges, lighted fridge sitting in a store, double or triple fridges, continues to amplify the value of the advertising every successive year. So we think that's frankly where we're going to get some of the benefit, but also scale in the media. We'll get some benefit there as well.

隨著我們越走越遠，肯定會帶來一些規模效益。我們看到的一件事是，您建立的冰箱網路越多，廣告的知名度就越高。因此，擁有 2 台和 3 台冰箱的商店會放大廣告效果。因此，我們認為，我們的廣告如此有效並推動成長超過我們的計劃，部分原因是零售可見度的提高。這並不會消失。是的，淨新冰箱是件好事，但冰箱的安裝基礎，商店裡的帶燈冰箱，雙層或三層冰箱，每年都在繼續放大廣告的價值。因此，坦白說，我們認為這就是我們將獲得一些好處的地方，而且還能擴大媒體規模。我們也會在那裡得到一些好處。

Yes. And just for perspective, and I've said this before, I mean, if we reached the $1.8 billion goal in 2027 and get the media spend down around 9% of sales, which we expect on both as $160 million of media spend, 1 brand, basically 1 country, we think that's a powerful resource to drive 25% CAGR.

是的。我之前說過，如果我們在 2027 年達到 18 億美元的目標，並將媒體支出佔銷售額的 9% 左右，我們預計媒體支出將達到 1.6 億美元，1品牌，基本上是1 個國家，我們認為這是推動25% 複合年增長率的強大資源。

Our next question is from Jim Salera with Stephens.

我們的下一個問題是吉姆·薩萊拉和史蒂芬斯提出的。

I wanted to ask on the expanded distribution of the large dog offering as well as the complete nutrition. What does that look like in the fridges in store, which SKUs get taken out in replacement those? Or is that kind of a way to dangle that offer in front of retailers to motivate them to put in that second fridge?

我想詢問大型犬產品的擴大分佈以及完整的營養。商店的冰箱裡是什麼樣子，哪些 SKU 會被拿出來替換？或者這是一種在零售商面前懸掛優惠以激勵他們放入第二台冰箱的方式？

Yes. It's -- as we build out new products, we typically will really have a very deep discussion with the retailers about adding a second fridge. It takes up a fair amount of space. You're typically dedicating at least a full kind of 2 feet to it in a fridge on a shelf in order to get packed out. So it takes up a fair amount of space. You never want to kind of take out existing items that are performing extremely well. So it is a really, really big push to go into our second fridges and even some of our third fridges over time.

是的。當我們開發新產品時，我們通常會與零售商就添加第二台冰箱進行非常深入的討論。它佔據了相當大的空間。您通常會在冰箱的架子上預留至少 2 英尺的空間，以便打包。所以它佔據了相當大的空間。您永遠不想刪除效能非常好的現有項目。因此，隨著時間的推移，這對進入我們的第二台冰箱甚至我們的一些第三台冰箱來說是一個非常非常大的推動。

Okay. That's helpful. And then, Todd, maybe a follow-up. I know people have touched on the logistics piece, but I think you just -- you guys delivered really impressive results there. Should we think of the current logistics expense of that kind of sub 7% rate as sustainable moving forward? And maybe you guys just delivered on that kind of better than the 2027 target on an ongoing basis?

好的。這很有幫助。然後，托德，也許是後續行動。我知道人們已經談到了物流部分，但我認為你們只是——你們在那裡取得了非常令人印象深刻的成果。我們是否應該認為目前低於 7% 的物流費用可以持續發展？也許你們只是持續實現了比 2027 年目標更好的目標？

Yes. I mean we laid out, to your point, we laid out a goal of 7.5% logistics back in February. Obviously, one of the bright spots is we've already beat that target. So yes, we think we will long term, be below the 7.5%. Obviously, if there's a big spike in diesel or lane rates from time to time, that could drive it periodically higher. But long term and we're very confident at this point with reasonable diesel costs that we will be sub 7%. And from what we can see right now, obviously, something has changed, but we feel good about being 7% or below for next year as well.

是的。我的意思是，就您的觀點而言，我們早在 2 月就制定了 7.5% 物流的目標。顯然，亮點之一是我們已經實現了這一目標。所以，是的，我們認為從長遠來看，我們的成長率將低於 7.5%。顯然，如果柴油或車道費率不時大幅上漲，可能會導致其週期性走高。但從長遠來看，我們目前非常有信心合理的柴油成本將低於 7%。從我們現在所看到的情況來看，顯然有些事情已經發生了變化，但我們對明年的成長率達到 7% 或更低感到滿意。

That's helpful. And then if I could maybe sneak in one last question. On the breakdown of the household growth rate by income, I was honestly surprised to see low income up as much as it's been. Can you just give us an idea of maybe what SKUs are driving that? And then from a consumer perspective, is kind of the value proposition that you guys offer that a consumer that has a little bit tighter of a budget would still be buying premium pet feed?

這很有幫助。然後我是否可以偷偷地問最後一個問題。關於家庭成長率按收入的細分，說實話，我很驚訝地看到低收入的成長如此之大。您能為我們介紹一下是什麼 SKU 推動了這個趨勢嗎？然後從消費者的角度來看，你們提供的價值主張是否是預算稍微緊張的消費者仍然會購買優質寵物飼料？

Yes. Jim, one of the things I always struggle with in providing the data by income is it treats all income is if it's funding the same size of household, the reality is that a significant number of our consumers who fall in that lower income bucket are in the smaller sized households, they might be single and have a dog they might be, the kids may have left the nest in so that them and the dog. And so the discretionary income they have available is significantly higher despite the relatively low overall total income.

是的。吉姆，在按收入提供數據時，我一直遇到的困難之一是，它對待所有收入的態度是，如果它為相同規模的家庭提供資金，現實情況是，我們中有相當一部分屬於較低收入群體的消費者都處於對於較小規模的家庭，他們可能是單身，並且養了一隻狗，孩子們可能已經離開了巢穴，以便他們和狗。因此，儘管整體總收入相對較低，但他們的可自由支配收入卻明顯較高。

And given our SKU towards younger households, we have a fairly significant number of Millennial and Gen Z consumers who are in that bucket, but for whom the dog is the only thing or the most important thing in their life. They don't have a car, they don't have a spouse. Their expenses are relatively narrowly confined.

考慮到我們針對年輕家庭的 SKU，我們有相當多的千禧世代和 Z 世代消費者屬於這一類，但對他們來說，狗是他們生活中唯一的東西或最重要的東西。他們沒有車，也沒有配偶。他們的開支相對有限。

Our next question is from Jon Anderson with William Blair.

我們的下一個問題來自喬恩·安德森和威廉·布萊爾。

Just 2 quick ones. On the productivity work, congrats on the benefits that you're delivering there. As you look to the Fresh Future goal of getting to 18% EBITDA margin by 2027, it looks like this year will come in closer to 8% from an EBITDA margin perspective. So you've got about 10 percentage points over the next 4 years. Can you talk a little bit about the path you expect during that time frame? Is it straight line? Does it ramp -- the improvement ramp in the out years and what some of the drivers are there?

就2個快的。在生產力工作方面，恭喜您所帶來的好處。 Fresh Future 的目標是到 2027 年實現 18% 的 EBITDA 利潤率，從 EBITDA 利潤率的角度來看，今年的 EBITDA 利潤率將接近 8%。因此，未來 4 年您將獲得約 10 個百分點。您能談談您在這段時間內預期的發展路徑嗎？是直線嗎？它是否在增長——過去幾年的改進增長以及其中的一些驅動因素是什麼？

And then the follow-up to that is, Todd, I think you mentioned gross margin you expect it to be sequentially lower in the fourth quarter than the third quarter. When do you think you hit an inflection point where we did see kind of sustained gross margin improvement sequentially going forward?

托德，我想您提到了您預計第四季度的毛利率將連續低於第三季。您認為您什麼時候遇到了我們確實看到毛利率持續持續改善的轉折點？

So let's take your first question on EBITDA margin. So yes, look, we're going to get around 500 basis points of EBITDA margin improvement this year, which obviously is terrific. We're not going to get 500 basis points each and every year and obviously don't need to. So where is that next 10 points that you mentioned going to come from. So obviously, 5 of it has to come from gross margin. We're going to have about 39.5-ish percent gross margin for this year. So we have about 550 basis points to go.

那麼，讓我們來回答您關於 EBITDA 利潤率的第一個問題。所以，是的，今年我們的 EBITDA 利潤率將提高約 500 個基點，這顯然是非常棒的。我們不會每年都升息 500 個基點，顯然也不需要這樣做。那麼您提到的接下來的 10 點來自哪裡呢？顯然，其中 5 必須來自毛利率。今年我們的毛利率約為 39.5% 左右。所以我們還有大約 550 個基點。

So obviously, that's half or a little bit more than half of it. We talked about the media spend that will come down as a percent of sales, a couple of hundred basis points. We probably got a little bit more room to grow in logistics, but not significantly. Obviously, we've made tremendous strides there. And then the rest of it, quite frankly, just comes from SG&A leverage. If you're growing 25%, we do not need to grow head count and other expenses more than high single digits. So there's a tremendous amount of leverage in SG&A as well.

顯然，這是一半或略多於一半。我們討論了媒體支出佔銷售額的百分比將下降幾百個基點。我們在物流方面可能有更多的成長空間，但不是很大。顯然，我們已經在這方面取得了巨大的進步。坦白說，其餘部分僅來自 SG&A 槓桿。如果您的成長率為 25%，我們不需要將員工數量和其他費用增加到高個位數以上。因此，SG&A 也具有巨大的槓桿作用。

So those are the components. And we have really good visibility to it. Obviously, gross margins that the trickiest part to debt and we have to execute really, really well, but we're very confident with the scale of the business and our ability to execute and we can be more productive and efficient in our lines that, that will occur.

這些就是組件。我們對此有很好的可見性。顯然，毛利率是債務中最棘手的部分，我們必須非常非常好地執行，但我們對業務規模和執行能力非常有信心，我們可以在我們的生產線中提高生產力和效率，那將會發生。

The cadence -- look, the cadence is really hard to predict. Again, I think we'll -- I'm confident we'll have some nice improvement, both on gross margin and EBITDA margin next year. Again, it's a little bit too early to commit to a number. Again, I got 4 years to get 10 points. So I got to get 250 basis points on average of EBITDA margin per year. Again, very confident we will do that. But the exact cadence of that is hard to predict. But I think we'll get another nice chunk next year.

節奏——看，節奏真的很難預測。我再次強調，我相信明年我們的毛利率和 EBITDA 利潤率都會有一些不錯的改善。再說一次，現在承諾一個數字還為時過早。再說一次，我有 4 年的時間才能拿到 10 分。所以我每年的 EBITDA 利潤率平均要達到 250 個基點。再次強調，我們非常有信心做到這一點。但具體的節奏很難預測。但我認為明年我們會得到另一個不錯的份額。

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to hand the floor back over to Mr. Billy Cyr for any closing comments.

目前沒有其他問題。我想將發言權交還給比利·西爾先生，請他發表結束語。

Great. Thank you, everyone. I'll leave you with this thought. The humorous (inaudible) about dogs. They never talk about themselves, but listen to you while you talk about yourself and keep up an appearance of being interested in the conversation, to which I'd add, we reward them for the patience and feed them Freshpet. Thank you very much for your interest.

偉大的。謝謝大家。我會把這個想法留給你。關於狗的幽默（聽不清楚）。他們從不談論自己，而是在你談論自己的時候聽你說話，並保持對談話感興趣的樣子，我要補充的是，我們獎勵他們的耐心，並給他們餵新鮮寵物。非常感謝您的關注。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。