Freshpet Inc (FRPT) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Freshpet Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎來到 Freshpet 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，正在錄製此會議。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Jeff Sonnek with ICR. Thank you. You may begin.

我現在想將會議轉交給您的主持人 Jeff Sonnek 與 ICR。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Freshpet's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call and Webcast. On today's call are Billy Cyr, Chief Executive Officer; and Todd Cunfer, Chief Financial Officer. Scott Morris, the company's Chief Operating Officer, will also be available for Q&A.

謝謝。早上好，歡迎來到 Freshpet 的 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議和網絡直播。參加今天電話會議的有首席執行官 Billy Cyr；首席財務官 Todd Cunfer。公司首席運營官 Scott Morris 也將出席問答環節。

Before we begin, please remember that during the course of this call, management may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These statements are based on management's current expectations and beliefs and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in these forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，請記住，在本次電話會議期間，管理層可能會做出聯邦證券法意義上的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述基於管理層當前的預期和信念，涉及可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述中描述的結果存在重大差異的風險和不確定性。

Please refer to the company's annual report on Form 10-K filed with the SEC and the company's press release issued today for a detailed discussion of the risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made today.

請參閱公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格年度報告和公司今天發布的新聞稿，詳細討論可能導致實際結果與任何前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異的風險今天。

Please note that on today's call, management will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures such as EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA, among others. While the company believes these non-GAAP financial measures provide useful information for investors, the presentation of this information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the financial information presented in accordance with GAAP. Please refer to today's press release for how management defines such non-GAAP financial measures, a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable prepared in accordance with GAAP, and limitations associated with such non-GAAP measures.

請注意，在今天的電話會議上，管理層將參考某些非 GAAP 財務指標，例如 EBITDA 和調整後的 EBITDA 等。雖然公司認為這些非 GAAP 財務措施為投資者提供了有用的信息，但這些信息的呈現並不是為了孤立地考慮或替代根據 GAAP 呈現的財務信息。請參閱今天的新聞稿，了解管理層如何定義此類非 GAAP 財務指標、非 GAAP 財務指標與根據 GAAP 編制的最具可比性的調節表，以及與此類非 GAAP 指標相關的限制。

Finally, as previously disclosed, during our second quarter, the company is no longer adding back plant start-up and launch expenses in this definition of adjusted EBITDA. The company has provided those costs in the table at the end of the press release to assist in your analysis of the results under both methodologies. Additionally, the company has produced a presentation that contains many of the key metrics that will be discussed on this call. That presentation can be found on the company's investor website.

最後，如前所述，在我們的第二季度，公司不再在調整後 EBITDA 的定義中增加工廠啟動和啟動費用。該公司在新聞稿末尾的表格中提供了這些成本，以幫助您分析兩種方法下的結果。此外，該公司還製作了一份演示文稿，其中包含將在本次電話會議上討論的許多關鍵指標。該演示文稿可以在公司的投資者網站上找到。

Management's commentary will not specifically walk through the presentation on the call, but rather it's a summary of the results and guidance they will discuss today. Additionally, we'd ask that your questions remain focused on the performance of the business and the results in the quarter. Management will not discuss or speculate on other topics beyond what is being reported here today.

管理層的評論不會具體介紹電話會議的內容，而是對他們今天將討論的結果和指導的總結。此外，我們希望您的問題仍然集中在業務績效和本季度的結果上。管理層將不會討論或推測除今天在此報告的內容之外的其他主題。

With that, I'd now like to turn the call over to Billy Cyr, Chief Executive Officer.

有了這個，我現在想把電話轉給首席執行官 Billy Cyr。

Thank you, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. The message I would like you to take away from today's call is that our house is getting back in order after the stumbles we had earlier in 2022. It is not perfect and it will take some time for us to get all the systems and processes, working the way we want them to. But the actions we have taken since our early September announcement of organizational changes and a renewed focus on our key costs are beginning to show their potential impact.

謝謝你，傑夫，大家早上好。我希望您從今天的電話中傳達的信息是，我們的房子在經歷了 2022 年初的挫折之後正在恢復秩序。它並不完美，我們需要一些時間來獲得所有系統和流程，按照我們希望的方式工作。但自 9 月初宣布組織變革和重新關注我們的關鍵成本以來，我們採取的行動開始顯示出它們的潛在影響。

A few of the highlights are: first, strong net sales growth. We delivered 43% growth in the fourth quarter. This is the strongest quarterly net sales growth since the company went public in 2014. We finished 2022 with 40% growth for the year, our sixth consecutive year of accelerating growth and also our strongest net sales growth since we went public 8 years ago.

其中一些亮點是：首先，強勁的淨銷售額增長。我們在第四季度實現了 43% 的增長。這是自公司 2014 年上市以來最強勁的季度淨銷售額增長。我們以 40% 的年度增長率結束了 2022 年，這是我們連續第六年加速增長，也是我們 8 年前上市以來最強勁的淨銷售額增長。

Second, adjusted EBITDA ahead of guidance. We delivered $20.1 million for fiscal year '22, well ahead of our guidance of greater than $15 million. This was due to a wide range of operational improvements in Q4, including better production that enabled higher revenues, improved costs in manufacturing and logistics and lower start-up costs in Ennis.

其次，調整後的 EBITDA 領先於指導。我們在 22 財年交付了 2010 萬美元，遠遠超過了我們超過 1500 萬美元的指導。這是由於第四季度的一系列運營改進，包括更好的生產帶來更高的收入、製造和物流成本的降低以及恩尼斯的啟動成本降低。

Third, improved logistics performance. By the end of the quarter, we were consistently shipping customers with a fill rate in excess of 90%, and that benefit flowed through our P&L. Logistics costs dropping to 9.4% of net sales in Q4 from 12.2% in Q3. Our in-stock position is now at pre-pandemic levels for the first time and improving by the day. Our fill rates are the best we've had since 2019, and customers are noticing it and adding fridges at an aggressive pace.

三是物流績效提升。到本季度末，我們始終以超過 90% 的發貨率向客戶發貨，而這一收益通過我們的損益表體現出來。物流成本占淨銷售額的比例從第三季度的 12.2% 降至第四季度的 9.4%。我們的庫存狀況現在首次達到大流行前的水平，並且每天都在改善。我們的填充率是自 2019 年以來最好的，客戶注意到了這一點並以激進的速度添加冰箱。

Fourth, improved quality. The levels of secondary processing and disposals dropped considerably as we progressed through the quarter due to strong operational improvements that we believe are the result of the investment we have made in training and retention of our workforce via the Freshpet Academy. It typically takes a quarter for quality improvements to flow through to the bottom line. So we are quite pleased to see the rapid sequential improvement in Q4 where we realized a 24% drop in the rate of quality costs as a percent of net sales versus Q3, and the momentum has continued into Q1 of 2023 as well.

四是質量提升。由於強勁的運營改進，我們認為這是我們通過 Freshpet Academy 在培訓和保留員工方面進行投資的結果，隨著我們在本季度的進展，二次加工和處置水平大幅下降。質量改進通常需要四分之一的時間才能達到最終結果。因此，我們很高興看到第四季度的快速連續改善，與第三季度相比，質量成本占淨銷售額的百分比下降了 24%，而且這種勢頭也一直持續到 2023 年第一季度。

Fifth, more effective balance between commodities and pricing. Input costs as a percent of net sales improved versus Q3 2022 due to the September price increase, coming in at 33.6% versus 34.7% in Q3, an average of 35.9% for the first 9 months.

第五，更有效地平衡商品和定價。由於 9 月價格上漲，投入成本占淨銷售額的百分比與 2022 年第三季度相比有所改善，從第三季度的 34.7% 上升到 33.6%，前 9 個月平均為 35.9%。

Sixth, we have rebalanced our capacity expansion plan to drive better capital spending discipline and match our anticipated growth. As we indicated at CAGNY last week, we adjusted our capacity plan to reduce capital spending between 2022 and 2023 by $50 million, and we'll still have adequate capacity to support our planned growth with some headroom.

第六，我們重新平衡了我們的產能擴張計劃，以推動更好的資本支出紀律並符合我們的預期增長。正如我們上週在 CAGNY 上指出的那樣，我們調整了產能計劃，將 2022 年至 2023 年的資本支出減少 5000 萬美元，我們仍然有足夠的產能來支持我們計劃中的增長，並有一定的空間。

Seventh, the Ennis start-up is going very well. Our start-up expenses came in a bit lower than we had projected because the Ennis startup is going very well and is ahead of schedule. We are now producing virtually the entire range of roles and at volumes that are in excess of our previous projections. This allowed us to switch shipments to the State of California to come from the Dallas DC in mid-January, ahead of our schedule. We are also ahead of schedule on the start-up of the bag line in Ennis and expect to be shipping a wide variety of SKUs from that line in Q2.

第七，恩尼斯的創業進展順利。我們的啟動費用比我們預期的要低一些，因為 Ennis 的啟動非常順利並且提前完成了。我們現在正在製作幾乎所有角色，而且數量超過了我們之前的預測。這使我們能夠在 1 月中旬提前將貨物從達拉斯 DC 運往加利福尼亞州。我們也提前啟動了 Ennis 的包袋生產線，預計將在第二季度從該生產線發貨各種 SKU。

We attribute this performance to the investment in training we made prior to start-up and also to the realignment of our engineering resources into a single group as part of the organization changes we made in September. We believe these improvements position us well for 2023. We are starting the year with well stocked fridges, healthy inventories and experienced and well-trained production staff, a robust lineup of new product innovations, strong customer commitments for incremental fridges, outstanding advertising on the air and pricing in the market that more closely matches our input costs. It will take some time for all those improvements to align and drive the resultant margin enhancement that we expect, but the early indicators are encouraging.

我們將這種表現歸功於我們在啟動前進行的培訓投資，以及將我們的工程資源重新調整為一個團隊，作為我們在 9 月份進行的組織變革的一部分。我們相信這些改進將使我們在 2023 年處於有利地位。我們以儲備充足的冰箱、健康的庫存和經驗豐富且訓練有素的生產人員、強大的新產品創新陣容、增量冰箱的強大客戶承諾、出色的廣告空氣和市場定價更接近我們的投入成本。所有這些改進都需要一些時間來調整併推動我們預期的最終利潤率提高，但早期指標令人鼓舞。

Our plan for 2023 is a logical extension of the updated fresh future 5-year long-term guidance we outlined last week at CAGNY. We continue to believe Freshpet is going to change the way people nurse their pets forever. And that will lead to more rapid increases in household penetration this year than we had last year. Buying rate will continue to grow at a strong rate, due in part to higher pricing and consumers continuing to increase the value and quantity of Freshpet items that they buy. That will support strong net sales growth, but at a more measured pace that will allow us to address the margin improvement initiatives that are underway.

我們的 2023 年計劃是我們上週在 CAGNY 概述的更新後的新的未來 5 年長期指導的合理延伸。我們仍然相信 Freshpet 將永遠改變人們照料寵物的方式。這將導致今年家庭普及率的增長比去年更快。購買率將繼續以強勁的速度增長，部分原因是價格上漲以及消費者繼續增加他們購買的 Freshpet 商品的價值和數量。這將支持強勁的淨銷售額增長，但速度會更加節制，這將使我們能夠解決正在進行的提高利潤率的舉措。

So with that context, we are initiating 2023 guidance that is in line with our updated long-term growth plan, which equates to revenue of approximately $750 million, which would result in growth of about 26%. In setting that target, we're mindful that we are only getting 8.5 points of pricing growth this year versus the 15 points we got last year. We also consider that there is no more trade inventory refill needed and we are lapping a year that had significant trade inventory refill. While it is hard to put a precise number on the trade inventory refill that happened last year, it is likely that it was somewhere in the range of $15 million to $20 million.

因此，在這種背景下，我們正在啟動 2023 年指導，這與我們更新的長期增長計劃相一致，這相當於收入約為 7.5 億美元，這將導致約 26% 的增長。在設定該目標時，我們注意到今年我們的價格增長僅為 8.5 個百分點，而去年為 15 個百分點。我們還認為不再需要補充貿易庫存，我們正在度過貿易庫存大量補充的一年。雖然很難給出去年發生的貿易庫存補充的準確數字，但很可能在 1500 萬至 2000 萬美元之間。

Finally, we believe we are facing potential recessionary headwinds at a time when we have also taken another price increase. We expect that there will be some impact from that on our unit movement and growth rate. Counterbalancing those headwinds are the significant increases in new fridges, a strong investment in media and some of the best new products we've launched in a long time and we will do that in an environment where we are not capacity constrained. We have more-than-enough installed capacity such that we can add staffing on about 90 days' notice, if necessary, to meet higher demand.

最後，我們認為，在我們再次提價之際，我們正面臨潛在的經濟衰退逆風。我們預計這會對我們的單位變動和增長率產生一些影響。抵消這些不利因素的是新冰箱的顯著增加、對媒體的大力投資以及我們長期以來推出的一些最好的新產品，我們將在不受容量限制的環境中這樣做。我們的裝機容量綽綽有餘，如有必要，我們可以在提前約 90 天通知的情況下增加人員配置，以滿足更高的需求。

From an operations perspective, we are expecting to see continued improvement in all areas of our operation, but some of them will take a bit of time, and some of them will have transitions that add expense before we actually see the cost benefits. For example, we now have more demand than we could supply from the Bethlehem Kitchens and Kitchens South, but not enough to fill both of them in the new lines at Ennis.

從運營的角度來看，我們期望看到我們運營的所有領域都在持續改進，但其中一些需要一些時間，而在我們真正看到成本效益之前，其中一些將有增加費用的過渡。例如，我們現在的需求超過了 Bethlehem Kitchens 和 Kitchens South 的供應能力，但還不足以滿足 Ennis 新生產線的需求。

For perspective, the first 2 lines in Ennis is fully staffed, would add almost $250 million in capacity, while our guidance implies net sales will grow by about $155 million this year. In other words, while we are adjusting staffing to match the demand, we will be carrying the incremental overhead cost of the new Ennis Kitchen while we grow into our new capacity and achieve higher levels of net sales.

從長遠來看，恩尼斯的前兩條生產線人員齊備，將增加近 2.5 億美元的產能，而我們的指導暗示今年淨銷售額將增長約 1.55 億美元。換句話說，在我們調整人員配置以滿足需求的同時，我們將承擔新 Ennis Kitchen 的增量間接費用，同時我們會發展到新產能並實現更高水平的淨銷售額。

Further, we will be shipping bags of product from PA to the Dallas DC during Q1 and Q2 of this year that will support shipments in Texas and the West Coast until the bag line in Ennis is fully capable of producing the wide array of bags we sell. Those incremental shipping and handling costs are transitory, but will impact us until we have balanced roll and bag production in Ennis.

此外，我們將在今年第一季度和第二季度將成袋的產品從賓夕法尼亞州運送到達拉斯特區，這將支持德克薩斯州和西海岸的運輸，直到恩尼斯的袋子生產線完全有能力生產我們銷售的各種袋子.那些增加的運輸和處理成本是暫時的，但會影響我們，直到我們在 Ennis 平衡捲和袋子生產。

You should also see steady progress on adjusted gross margin and adjusted EBITDA margin as we move through the year. And by the end of the year, you should expect to see the fruits of those efforts in the form of much improved capacity utilization and lower freight costs. Furthermore, when measured on an annual basis, for the full year 2023, we expect our results will be significantly better than last year's on several KPIs, including adjusted gross margin, freight as a percent of sales and adjusted EBITDA margin. Todd will take you through the details.

隨著我們度過這一年，您還應該看到調整後的毛利率和調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率穩步增長。到今年年底，您應該會看到這些努力的成果，即大幅提高產能利用率和降低運費。此外，如果按年度衡量，2023 年全年，我們預計我們的幾個 KPI 的結果將明顯好於去年，包括調整後的毛利率、運費佔銷售額的百分比和調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率。托德將帶您了解詳情。

All these improvements are enabled by the increasing strength of our operations team and our renewed focus on improving margins. While we still expect to make 1 or 2 additions to our operations team, the team we have is operating at a much higher level, and our entire leadership team is relentlessly focused on the leading indicators of performance and have developed action plans to drive the improvements we've outlined in our 2027 goals.

所有這些改進都得益於我們運營團隊實力的增強以及我們對提高利潤率的重新關注。雖然我們仍然希望為我們的運營團隊增加 1 或 2 名成員，但我們的團隊正在以更高的水平運營，我們的整個領導團隊不懈地關注領先的績效指標，並製定了推動改進的行動計劃我們已在 2027 年目標中概述。

As previously indicated, we have implemented a 5% price increase, effective with the orders beginning on February 6, '23. At this time, we believe that the price that we've taken adequately covers the known input and energy cost inflation we have seen. We've locked pricing and inputs that account for greater than 75% of our costs so far, and we'll continue to add to our supply agreements as the year goes along.

如前所述，我們已經實施了 5% 的價格上漲，從 2023 年 2 月 6 日開始的訂單生效。目前，我們相信我們所採取的價格足以彌補我們所看到的已知投入和能源成本通脹。到目前為止，我們已經鎖定了占我們成本 75% 以上的定價和投入，並且隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續增加我們的供應協議。

Due to the timing of our price increase being implemented 6 weeks into the start of the first quarter, we anticipate that we will have a small price cost mismatch. But on a relative basis to our experience last year, we see this as much, much more manageable. Our advertising plan for the year is, like in most previous years, front-loaded. We have greater than 60% of the spending planned for the first half of the year and have been on air since the beginning of January. We expect this to reaccelerate our household penetration gains, taking them from the 16% we had in 2022 to the low to mid-20s by the end of 2023.

由於我們的價格上漲時間是在第一季度開始後的 6 週內實施的，我們預計我們將有一個小的價格成本不匹配。但相對於我們去年的經驗，我們認為這更易於管理。與往年大多數年份一樣，我們今年的廣告計劃是提前完成的。我們已經完成了上半年計劃支出的 60% 以上，並且從 1 月初開始播出。我們預計這將重新加速我們的家庭普及率增長，將其從 2022 年的 16% 提高到 2023 年底的 20 年代中期。

We are expecting record support from our customers in 2023. At the end of 2022, we had about 1.5 million cubic feet of fridge space at retail. We expect that to grow to more than 1.7 million cubic feet by the end of 2023. That represents approximately 1,200 net new stores, the addition of 3,000 second and third fridges and fridge upgrades in approximately 1,000 stores. This is a terrific endorsement of Freshpet's value to our retail partners. We believe this will amplify our advertising investment, providing added visibility that reinforces our brand's distinctive offering.

我們期待客戶在 2023 年提供創紀錄的支持。到 2022 年底，我們的零售冰箱空間約為 150 萬立方英尺。我們預計到 2023 年底，這一數字將增長到超過 170 萬立方英尺。這意味著大約 1,200 家淨新店，增加 3,000 台第二和第三台冰箱，以及對大約 1,000 家商店進行冰箱升級。這是對 Freshpet 對我們的零售合作夥伴的價值的極好認可。我們相信這將擴大我們的廣告投資，提供更高的知名度，從而加強我們品牌的獨特產品。

In total, we believe we have all the necessary building blocks in place to generate consistent, long-term growth that is appropriately geared so that we can also achieve our margin improvement goals. We will be able to fully support this growth from our existing kitchens in Bethlehem, 3 lines in Kitchens South and the first 2 lines in Ennis with room to spare. As you heard at CAGNY, we have modified our capital spending plan to better match the rate of sales growth we are expecting and can reliably support. We will continue construction and installation of the next 2 lines in Ennis so that they are ready to go in 2024 and 2025 when they are likely needed to support the next leg of our growth.

總的來說，我們相信我們已經具備了所有必要的基石來產生持續的、長期的增長，這種增長是適當的，這樣我們也可以實現我們的利潤率提高目標。我們將能夠充分支持我們在伯利恆的現有廚房、Kitchens South 的 3 條生產線和 Ennis 的前 2 條生產線的增長，並有剩餘空間。正如您在 CAGNY 聽到的那樣，我們已經修改了我們的資本支出計劃，以更好地匹配我們預期並能夠可靠支持的銷售增長率。我們將繼續在恩尼斯建設和安裝接下來的 2 條線路，以便它們在 2024 年和 2025 年準備好運行，屆時可能需要它們來支持我們的下一階段增長。

Each step of the way, we are carefully assessing the latest view of demand against our available capacity so that we keep these 2 important variables aligned. This will help us control expenses while maximizing our opportunity to drive profitable sales growth. I want to be clear, however, that our long-term economics and the plan for 2023 assume that we will always have some amount of capacity in excess of our planned net sales because capacity comes on in chunks. This forms specific, i.e., rolls or bags and start-ups can be challenging. So we want to be sure that we don't get caught without enough capacity as we did for the past 3 years.

在此過程中的每一步，我們都在根據我們的可用容量仔細評估最新的需求觀點，以便我們使這 2 個重要變量保持一致。這將幫助我們控制開支，同時最大限度地增加我們推動盈利性銷售增長的機會。然而，我想明確一點，我們的長期經濟學和 2023 年的計劃假設我們總是會有一些產能超過我們計劃的淨銷售額，因為產能是成批增加的。這種形式是特定的，即卷或袋，初創企業可能具有挑戰性。因此，我們希望確保我們不會像過去 3 年那樣在容量不足的情況下被抓到。

Before I turn it over to Todd, I would like to share one additional thought. I am a big fan of identifying key metrics in our business that are leading indicators of performance. That is how we arrived at the intense focus we have on household penetration as the prime indicator of our net sales potential instead of store count in 2017. That has proven to be a very reliable indicator of our growth and upside potential, and it has also driven the right kinds of investment choices that have resulted in 6 consecutive years of accelerating growth.

在我把它交給托德之前，我想分享一個額外的想法。我非常喜歡確定我們業務中作為領先績效指標的關鍵指標。這就是我們如何在 2017 年高度關注家庭滲透率作為我們淨銷售潛力的主要指標而不是商店數量。這已被證明是我們增長和上升潛力的一個非常可靠的指標，它也推動了正確的投資選擇，從而實現了連續 6 年的加速增長。

When it came to improving our operations, we struggled to find that critical leading indicator. There are still many that seems to be good indicators of parts of our operations but nothing that could be (inaudible) a broad-based operations improvement. But as I've seen our performance improve over the last 90 to 120 days, there seems to be one factor that underpinned our improving performance on a wide range of metrics, employee retention within our hourly workforce. There appears to be a strong correlation between the improving retention we have had amongst our hourly workforce and the improvements we are seeing in throughput, quality, fill rate and many more.

在改善我們的運營方面，我們努力尋找關鍵的領先指標。仍然有許多似乎是我們部分運營的良好指標，但沒有什麼可以（聽不清）基礎廣泛的運營改進。但正如我所看到的，在過去 90 到 120 天內我們的績效有所提高，似乎有一個因素支持我們在廣泛的指標上提高績效，即我們小時工的員工保留率。我們在小時工中的保留率提高與我們在吞吐量、質量、填充率等方面看到的改進之間似乎存在很強的相關性。

Well, that should not be surprising. What is surprising is how quickly that impact can show up. It takes time to build the skills of our team but relatively little time for those improved skills to pay off once they are in place. As we saw team members climb the ladder of the Freshpet Academy, we have seen our operating performance improve in turn. In this way, we believe that the investment we made in our talent and the Freshpet Academy is working. We are attracting more skilled team members, providing them a significant training opportunities and rewarding them with career and compensation gains. As a result, our retention has improved dramatically, and we've advanced a large number of our team members to higher levels within the Freshpet Academy.

嗯，這不足為奇。令人驚訝的是這種影響會以多快的速度顯現出來。培養我們團隊的技能需要時間，但這些改進後的技能一旦到位就可以用相對較少的時間獲得回報。當我們看到團隊成員在 Freshpet Academy 的階梯上攀升時，我們也看到了我們的經營業績也隨之提升。通過這種方式，我們相信我們對人才和 Freshpet Academy 的投資正在發揮作用。我們正在吸引更多技能嫻熟的團隊成員，為他們提供重要的培訓機會，並通過職業和薪酬收益獎勵他們。結果，我們的保留率有了顯著提高，並且我們已經將大量團隊成員提升到 Freshpet Academy 的更高級別。

One year ago after more than 15 years of operation, we did not have any team members with the skills to be at Level 600, the highest level on our Freshpet Academy. One year later, we now have 14 team members at that level. Those highly skilled employees are capable of running virtually any piece of equipment in our operation and demonstrate a level of proficiency that has proven to result in higher quality, less waste and greater throughput.

一年前，經過超過 15 年的運營，我們沒有任何團隊成員的技能達到 600 級，這是我們 Freshpet Academy 的最高級別。一年後，我們現在有 14 名該級別的團隊成員。這些技術精湛的員工幾乎能夠操作我們運營中的任何設備，並展現出一定水平的熟練程度，這已被證明可以帶來更高的質量、更少的浪費和更大的吞吐量。

In Ennis, we already have 4 team members who have reached Level 400 due to the head start we gave them with 1 year of training in Pennsylvania. That is clearly contributing to our fast start-up in Ennis. We are going to continue to focus on enhancing the skills and retention of our hourly workforce and expect to build upon the early gains we have realized since launching the Freshpet Academy. Those gains are very reassuring and gratifying because we strongly believe that focusing on the people part of pets, people, planet will pay dividends. And in this case, it appears that it is happening.

在恩尼斯，我們已經有 4 名團隊成員達到了 400 級，這是因為我們在賓夕法尼亞州為他們提供了 1 年的培訓。這顯然有助於我們在恩尼斯的快速啟動。我們將繼續專注於提高小時工的技能和保留率，並期望在我們自推出 Freshpet Academy 以來取得的早期成果的基礎上再接再厲。這些收穫非常令人欣慰和欣慰，因為我們堅信，關注寵物、人類和地球的人類部分將會帶來回報。在這種情況下，它似乎正在發生。

It is also creating sustainable value for our employees, their families and the communities in which they live. These employees now have greater skills that will provide value for their entire career and are earning much higher pay with the added benefits of equity ownership. Every day, I hear stories from our production team members about how our investment in their careers is enabling them to enhance the lives of their families through homeownership, paying for kids' education, paying off debts and more. We are very proud to have created an ecosystem where their efforts and our training enables so many enhancements to their lives while simultaneously creating a recipe for sustainable shareholder value creation.

它還為我們的員工、他們的家人和他們居住的社區創造可持續的價值。這些員工現在擁有更好的技能，可以為他們的整個職業生涯提供價值，並且由於股權所有權的額外好處而獲得更高的薪水。每天，我都會從我們的製作團隊成員那裡聽到關於我們對他們職業生涯的投資如何使他們能夠通過擁有房屋、支付孩子的教育費用、還清債務等來改善家庭生活的故事。我們非常自豪能夠創建一個生態系統，在這個生態系統中，他們的努力和我們的培訓可以使他們的生活得到如此多的改善，同時為可持續的股東價值創造創造秘訣。

Now let me turn it over to Todd for a more detailed look at our results. Todd has been with us since December 1, but he has been vigorously working to get up to speed and it has taken him very little time to do that. He has been a great addition to our team and is evidence that the Freshpet opportunity can attract first-rate talent. And if you prefer this early morning earnings call over our late afternoon and evening marathons, you can thank Todd for that, too. Todd?

現在讓我把它轉交給托德，以便更詳細地了解我們的結果。托德從 12 月 1 日起就加入了我們，但他一直在積極努力以加快速度，而且他只花了很少的時間來做到這一點。他對我們的團隊來說是一個很好的補充，並且證明了 Freshpet 的機會可以吸引一流的人才。如果你更喜歡這個清晨的財報電話會議而不是我們下午晚些時候和晚上的馬拉鬆比賽，你也可以為此感謝托德。托德？

Thank you, Billy, and good morning, everyone. Let me start by telling you how excited I am to join the Freshpet team. I've been here for 3 months, and I'm even more convinced than ever that the growth opportunity is very real and that this will become one of the greatest growth stories in CPG. We will truly transform pet food for the better and create an iconic brand that generates robust profits and has enduring value, but we clearly have some work in front of us to reach our full potential.

謝謝你，比利，大家早上好。首先讓我告訴您加入 Freshpet 團隊我有多麼興奮。我在這裡已經 3 個月了，我比以往任何時候都更加相信增長機會是非常真實的，這將成為 CPG 最偉大的增長故事之一。我們將真正讓寵物食品變得更好，並創建一個產生可觀利潤並具有持久價值的標誌性品牌，但我們顯然還有一些工作要做，以充分發揮我們的潛力。

I have been focused on a few critical priorities in my first 90 days, including the fresh future or long-term plan we presented last week at CAGNY. We believe that plan provides a solid road map to meaningful profitability beginning with solid margin gains in 2023. I clearly believe that we can achieve the goals we have laid out and we are hard at work on the efforts needed to deliver them.

在我上任的頭 90 天裡，我一直專注於一些關鍵的優先事項，包括我們上週在 CAGNY 提出的新的未來或長期計劃。我們相信，該計劃提供了一個堅實的路線圖，從 2023 年的可觀利潤率增長開始，實現有意義的盈利。我清楚地相信，我們能夠實現我們制定的目標，我們正在努力實現這些目標。

As a new CFO, you always wonder what you will find when you walk in the door at your next opportunity. Fortunately, the Freshpet team gave me some strong results to report in my first call. As Billy indicated, we comfortably exceeded our guidance on both net sales and adjusted EBITDA. Let me break it down a bit further.

作為新任首席財務官，您總是想知道下次機會走進門時會發現什麼。幸運的是，Freshpet 團隊在我的第一個電話中給了我一些很好的結果來報告。正如 Billy 所指出的，我們輕鬆地超出了淨銷售額和調整後 EBITDA 的指導。讓我進一步分解一下。

Net sales came in at $165.5 million, up 43% versus a year ago. This was the result of Nielsen Mega Channel consumption growth of 33% versus a year ago. The completion of the trade inventory refill we have been working on for most of the past year and a favorable year-on-year comparison. By the end of the year, we believe that we have largely completed the trade inventory refill as our fill rates were consistently running in the mid-90s, and our in-stock conditions at retail were fairly healthy.

淨銷售額為 1.655 億美元，同比增長 43%。這是 Nielsen Mega Channel 消費量與一年前相比增長 33% 的結果。我們在過去一年的大部分時間裡一直在努力完成貿易庫存補充工作，並實現了有利的同比比較。到今年年底，我們相信我們已經基本完成了貿易庫存補充，因為我們的補充率一直在 90 年代中期運行，而且我們的零售庫存狀況相當健康。

For FY '22, we recorded 40% net sales growth with 37% Nielsen Mega Channel consumption growth and the balance coming from the trade inventory refill that we completed in the year. Price increases averaged 15% for the year and contributed to that growth, but did drive some amount of unit volume erosion. So the entire 15% was not additive to our growth rate. We finished the year with household penetration gains using numerator data of 16%.

對於 22 財年，我們錄得 40% 的淨銷售額增長，其中 Nielsen Mega Channel 消費增長 37%，餘額來自我們當年完成的貿易庫存補充。全年價格平均上漲 15%，對這一增長做出了貢獻，但確實造成了一定程度的單位銷量下滑。所以整個 15% 並沒有增加我們的增長率。我們使用 16% 的分子數據以家庭普及率結束了這一年。

Regarding adjusted gross margin, we continued to experience significant plant start-up expenses in our Ennis Kitchen in the fourth quarter in the amount of $8 million, but this spend was a bit lighter than we had planned due to a smoother start-up in Ennis. Adjusted gross margin was 33% for the quarter, but excluding these start-up expenses, our adjusted gross margin would have been 480 basis points better.

關於調整後的毛利率，第四季度我們在 Ennis Kitchen 的工廠啟動費用繼續增加，為 800 萬美元，但由於 Ennis 的啟動更順利，這筆支出比我們計劃的要少一些.本季度調整後的毛利率為 33%，但如果不計入這些啟動費用，我們調整後的毛利率將提高 480 個基點。

For the year, adjusted gross margin came in at 36%. Plant start-up expenses in the year were around $26 million and depressed adjusted gross margin by 440 basis points. Adjusted EBITDA was $18.8 million in Q4 and $20.1 million for the year. Q4's results benefited from better-than-projected net sales, improvements in quality and logistics cost and lower media spend versus a year ago, which I'll note was planned. We ended the year with meeting investments at 10.5% of net sales, which on a dollar basis, increased 36% versus a year ago, nearly matching our consumption growth.

全年，調整後的毛利率為 36%。當年的工廠啟動費用約為 2600 萬美元，使調整後的毛利率下降了 440 個基點。第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 1880 萬美元，全年為 2010 萬美元。第四季度的業績得益於好於預期的淨銷售額、質量和物流成本的改善以及與一年前相比較低的媒體支出，我會注意到這是計劃中的。年底，我們的會議投資占淨銷售額的 10.5%，按美元計算，與一年前相比增長了 36%，幾乎與我們的消費增長相匹配。

Logistics costs were 9.4% of net sales in the fourth quarter, down significantly from 12.2% in Q3, due to higher fill rates and efforts to unclog the supply chain. This improvement in logistics costs brought the total logistics as a percent of net sales for the year down to 10.7% from 11.2% in the year ago period, but well above the 8% we experienced in the years prior to the pandemic and remains a significant opportunity that we expect to begin to realize in 2023.

物流成本在第四季度占淨銷售額的 9.4%，明顯低於第三季度的 12.2%，這是由於更高的填充率和疏通供應鏈的努力。物流成本的改善使全年物流總額占淨銷售額的百分比從去年同期的 11.2% 降至 10.7%，但遠高於我們在大流行前幾年經歷的 8%，並且仍然是一個重要的我們希望在 2023 年開始實現的機會。

Capital spending for the year came in below the most recent expectations at $230 million, largely due to timing on some sizable expenses in Ennis related to completion of the first production building, the chicken processing facility and the early stages of the construction of Phase 2. This is also evidence of renewed cost discipline by our reorganized engineering team and better alignment across the organization on priorities.

今年的資本支出低於最新預期的 2.3 億美元，這主要是由於恩尼斯與第一座生產大樓、雞肉加工廠和二期建設初期建設相關的一些大筆支出的時間安排。這也證明了我們重組後的工程團隊重新制定了成本紀律，並且整個組織在優先事項上更好地保持一致。

I want to be clear that this reduction in spending does not compromise our ability to grow at rapid rates. We have ample installed capacity for the 25% compound growth rate that we outlined in our 2027 fresh future plan.

我想明確一點，這種支出的減少不會損害我們快速增長的能力。我們有足夠的裝機容量來實現我們在 2027 年新的未來計劃中概述的 25% 的複合增長率。

As Billy said, we feel we are well positioned heading into 2023, but we also know that we need to demonstrate marked improvement and profitability now that Ennis is operating. Our pricing has caught up to our costs, and we have stabilized operations in both production and the supply chain.

正如 Billy 所說，我們認為我們在進入 2023 年時處於有利地位，但我們也知道，既然 Ennis 正在運營，我們需要展示顯著的改進和盈利能力。我們的定價已經趕上了我們的成本，我們已經穩定了生產和供應鏈的運營。

Turning to our guidance for 2023. You will notice a change in the form of our guidance versus previous years. This reflects our renewed focus on improving margins as the most critical driver of success in 2023. Our goal is to exceed the adjusted EBITDA target, and we will prioritize margin expansion over incremental net sales. This does not reflect any less confidence in our ability to drive net sales in a year's path, but rather our intention to drive margins as our most important priority this year.

轉向我們對 2023 年的指導。您會注意到我們的指導形式與往年相比有所變化。這反映出我們重新關注提高利潤率，將其作為 2023 年成功的最關鍵驅動因素。我們的目標是超過調整後的 EBITDA 目標，我們將優先考慮擴大利潤率而不是增量淨銷售額。這並不反映出對我們在一年內推動淨銷售額的能力的信心下降，而是我們打算將推動利潤率作為今年最重要的優先事項。

We believe our net sales growth rate is very robust, and we fully intend to deliver it. As such, we are guiding to approximately $750 million in net sales for 2023, up 26% versus a year ago. The net sales growth during the year will likely be less than the Nielsen measured consumption growth as we progress through the year because we have completed the trade inventory refill and we'll be lapping trade inventory refill in the year ago period.

我們相信我們的淨銷售額增長率非常強勁，我們完全打算實現這一目標。因此，我們預計 2023 年的淨銷售額約為 7.5 億美元，同比增長 26%。今年的淨銷售額增長可能會低於尼爾森衡量的消費增長，因為我們已經完成了貿易庫存補充，我們將在去年同期完成貿易庫存補充。

In terms of cadence, you should expect that Q1 2023 net sales will be comparable to Q4 2022 because we completed the trade inventory refill in Q4. However, the heavy marketing investment and new fridge placements will drive the underlying household penetration and consumption, which should both grow significantly from Q4 of 2022, but the absence of trade inventory refill in Q1 2023 will likely result in Q1 net sales similar to our Q4 2022.

就節奏而言，您應該預計 2023 年第一季度的淨銷售額將與 2022 年第四季度相當，因為我們在第四季度完成了貿易庫存補充。然而，大量的營銷投資和新冰箱的投放將推動潛在的家庭滲透率和消費，這兩者都應該從 2022 年第四季度開始顯著增長，但是 2023 年第一季度沒有貿易庫存補充可能會導致第一季度的淨銷售額與我們的第四季度相似2022.

For the year, we expect to see a strong and steady build of consumption throughout the first half of the year, some flattening in the summer behind traditionally slower summer consumption patterns and then growth again in the fall. We expect that the cadence of our sequential net sales growth will mirror those trends.

對於今年，我們預計整個上半年的消費將強勁而穩定地增長，在夏季傳統上較慢的夏季消費模式之後會有所趨緩，然後在秋季再次增長。我們預計我們連續淨銷售額增長的節奏將反映這些趨勢。

It is also important to remember that we will get the benefit of the 5% price increase with shipments in mid- to late February, but will also lap the larger February 2022 price increase of 12.5% and the smaller September 2022 price increase of 2.7%. Over the year, we expect pricing to average around 8.5% versus a year ago, which compares to the 15 points of pricing that we implemented last year.

同樣重要的是要記住，我們將受益於 2 月中下旬發貨的 5% 的價格上漲，但也將超過 2022 年 2 月 12.5% 的較大價格漲幅和 2022 年 9 月 2.7% 的較小價格漲幅.全年，我們預計定價與一年前相比平均約為 8.5%，而我們去年實施的定價為 15 個百分點。

Our adjusted EBITDA is expected to be at least $50 million, an improvement of $30 million versus 2022. A meaningful part of that improvement will come from reduced start-up expenses. That improvement will be partially offset by the higher operating cost of having a large new facility that will not be operating at scale yet and some transitory expenses as we ramp up the Dallas D.C. We will also have higher operating expenses for our ERP system now that we can no longer capitalize the initial investment in the technology.

我們調整後的 EBITDA 預計至少為 5000 萬美元，比 2022 年增加 3000 萬美元。這一改善的一個重要部分將來自啟動費用的減少。這一改進將部分被擁有一個尚未大規模運營的大型新設施的更高運營成本以及我們在達拉斯特區擴建時的一些臨時費用所抵消。我們的 ERP 系統也將有更高的運營費用，因為我們無法再將最初的技術投資資本化。

In terms of the cadence of the adjusted EBITDA, it will be back loaded again this year as we will incur significant plant start-up expenses, heavier marketing expense and transitory logistics costs in both Q1 and Q2 and lower volumes against higher fixed overhead now that we have Ennis online and need to grow into its scale. As you consider those moving parts, Q1 adjusted EBITDA will be modestly negative due to these expenses and will be the low point for the year. Q2 will experience similar transitory logistics and startup costs along with elevated marketing investments, so there will only be modest improvement in Q2.

就調整後的 EBITDA 的節奏而言，今年將再次加載，因為我們將在第一季度和第二季度產生大量的工廠啟動費用、更大的營銷費用和臨時物流成本，並且由於更高的固定管理費用而導致銷量下降我們有 Ennis 在線，需要擴大規模。當您考慮這些移動部分時，由於這些費用，第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 將略微為負，並將成為今年的低點。第二季度將經歷類似的臨時物流和啟動成本以及營銷投資的增加，因此第二季度只會有適度的改善。

As we move out further in the year, we expect sequential improvement due to increasing scale, the elimination of start-up and transitory expenses and growing into our marketing investment. For context, we expect to generate only modest adjusted EBITDA in the first half of the year.

隨著我們今年的進一步發展，我們預計由於規模擴大、啟動和臨時費用的消除以及我們營銷投資的增長，我們預計會出現連續改善。就背景而言，我們預計今年上半年只會產生適度的調整後 EBITDA。

From an adjusted gross margin perspective, our guidance implies a greater than 200 basis point increase for the full year 2023. Logistics costs, despite the transitory expenses, will improve by at least 100 basis points now that our fill rates are up, and we will have the Dallas DC operating.

從調整後的毛利率角度來看，我們的指導意味著 2023 年全年增長超過 200 個基點。物流成本，儘管有暫時性費用，但由於我們的填充率上升，物流成本將至少提高 100 個基點，我們將讓達拉斯 DC 運行。

Advertising will grow at a rate slightly greater than net sales growth and support restored growth in household penetration. The remaining part of SG&A will grow slightly less than net sales growth as the previously mentioned higher ERP costs and lapping below-target bonus accruals will be a headwind to corporate expenses in FY '23.

廣告的增長速度將略高於淨銷售額的增長，並支持家庭普及率的恢復增長。 SG&A 的其餘部分增長將略低於淨銷售額增長，因為前面提到的更高的 ERP 成本和低於目標的應計獎金將成為 23 財年公司支出的不利因素。

Our capital spending plan for 2023 is around $240 million and for 2024 is around $210 million. This will support the installation of enough capacity to meet $1.1 billion in demand in 2024 and put us on track for enough capacity to meet up to $1.4 billion in demand in 2025. You will note that the combination of a 2022 and '23 capital spending is $50 million less than we projected in November. This is largely due to the timing of the Ennis Phase 2 capacity and a decision to split that project into 2 pieces to allow us to ramp up utilization of the first phase of Ennis and also provide more time to qualify new manufacturing technologies that could be significantly more efficient than our current technology.

我們 2023 年的資本支出計劃約為 2.4 億美元，2024 年約為 2.1 億美元。這將支持安裝足夠的容量以滿足 2024 年 11 億美元的需求，並使我們走上正軌，以滿足 2025 年高達 14 億美元的需求。你會注意到 2022 年和 23 年的資本支出相結合比我們 11 月份的預期少 5000 萬美元。這主要是由於 Ennis 2 期產能的時間安排以及將該項目分成 2 個部分的決定，以使我們能夠提高 Ennis 第一階段的利用率，並提供更多時間來驗證新的製造技術，這些技術可能會顯著比我們目前的技術更有效。

We believe we have adequate resources to fully fund this plan from our balance sheet, line of credit and from cash generated by operations. However, we do expect to refinance our line of credit this year to better match our expected growth in capital spending.

我們相信我們有足夠的資源從我們的資產負債表、信貸額度和運營產生的現金中為這個計劃提供充分的資金。然而，我們確實希望今年為我們的信貸額度再融資，以更好地匹配我們預期的資本支出增長。

In closing, we are very bullish about the prospects for Freshpet. We have significant momentum on both the top line and in our operations. We have adequate capacity to support strong growth. Our customers are making significant investments of shelf space to support the growing demand, and our marketing and innovation programs are hitting on all cylinders. Our operations teams are performing well and with a renewed focus on delivering excellence in quality, logistics and manufacturing efficiency.

最後，我們非常看好 Freshpet 的前景。我們在收入和運營方面都有巨大的發展勢頭。我們有足夠的能力支持強勁的增長。我們的客戶正在對貨架空間進行大量投資以支持不斷增長的需求，而我們的營銷和創新計劃正在全力以赴。我們的運營團隊表現良好，並重新專注於提供卓越的質量、物流和製造效率。

We are aware of the challenging economic backdrop and will constantly monitor any impact the changing conditions it may have on our business in order to position ourselves for the best long-term return for our investors. In short, I am glad that I'm here, and I think we have a very bright future.

我們意識到充滿挑戰的經濟背景，並將不斷監控不斷變化的條件可能對我們的業務產生的任何影響，以便為我們的投資者爭取最佳的長期回報。簡而言之，我很高興來到這裡，我認為我們的未來非常光明。

That concludes our overview. We will now be glad to take your questions. And as a reminder, please focus your questions on the quarter and the company's operations. Operator?

我們的概述到此結束。我們現在很樂意回答您的問題。提醒一下，請將您的問題集中在本季度和公司的運營上。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Peter Benedict with Baird.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Peter Benedict 與 Baird 的對話。

My first one, Billy, you had mentioned some recession unit impact that's kind of baked into your view for this year. I'm just wondering maybe you could expand on that, talk a little bit about your view on the macro and how you think that -- or at least if you're seeing any of that yet or what you're seeing now and how you expect that to play out this year? That's my first question.

我的第一個，比利，你提到了一些衰退單位的影響，這在你今年的觀點中有所體現。我只是想知道也許你可以對此進行擴展，談談你對宏觀的看法以及你的想法 - 或者至少你是否已經看到了這些或者你現在看到了什麼以及如何你希望這在今年發揮作用嗎？這是我的第一個問題。

I'll just give you a top line on it, and Scott could probably provide a little bit more compounding on it. But we have -- we're watching the economy. We're not seeing anything specific yet, but you can't be in a spot where you look at the macroeconomic factors that we're seeing, whether it's consumers starting to pull back on and trade down in a variety of other categories, not necessarily in our category and think that it's going to be smooth sailing for the balance of the year. So we wanted to be appropriately cautious.

我只會給你一個頂線，斯科特可能會提供更多的複合信息。但我們有——我們正在關注經濟。我們還沒有看到任何具體的情況，但你不能在一個地方查看我們所看到的宏觀經濟因素，無論是消費者開始退縮並在其他各種類別中進行交易，而不是必然屬於我們的類別，並認為在今年餘下的時間裡它會一帆風順。所以我們要適當謹慎。

We don't have a specific number that I'm going to give you that would tell you, here's what we're worried about, which is -- it's more of a generalized concern. I don't know, Scott, do you want to add that?

我們沒有具體的數字可以告訴你，這就是我們擔心的，這更像是一個普遍的問題。我不知道，斯科特，你想補充一下嗎？

Yes. I mean, look, Peter, I think what we're seeing is pet foods up a lot. It's more than many categories. I think consumers have to get a little bit more comfortable with that new bar that is at. The good news is the entire category has moved up. I think that some people have -- there's been a little bit of trading around and moving back and forth. But it looks like what we're seeing that we really like that's an early, early indicator is we consistently seeing pounds move up versus a year ago. And that provides kind of really good clarity.

是的。我的意思是，彼得，我認為我們看到的是寵物食品的價格上漲了很多。它不僅僅是許多類別。我認為消費者必須對那個新酒吧感到更舒服一點。好消息是整個品類都上升了。我認為有些人已經 - 有一些交易和來回移動。但看起來我們所看到的我們真的很喜歡這是一個早期的早期指標，我們一直看到英鎊與一年前相比有所上漲。這提供了一種非常好的清晰度。

The piece that underneath all that's kind of underpinning it is these HIPPOH's that we started introducing at ICR and I think it was talked about also at CAGNY, we're seeing those super heavy, heavy or those HIPPOH's continue to build and grow, and that's going to be the core of our consumer base. And those people -- their pet is their child and they really don't want to cut back on nutrition. And so I don't think we have any perfect clarity on it, but we just want to be kind of prudent and thoughtful about what we're going to see over the course of the year with gaining consumers. We -- all the early signs look encouraging, but we also want to be kind of providing kind of guidance and thoughts for everybody that we don't have perfect clarity on it.

支撐它的是我們在 ICR 上開始介紹的這些 HIPPOH，我想它也在 CAGNY 上被討論過，我們看到那些超重的、重的或那些 HIPPOH 繼續建造和成長，那就是將成為我們消費者群的核心。而那些人——他們的寵物是他們的孩子，他們真的不想減少營養。所以我不認為我們對此有任何完美的清晰度，但我們只是想對我們在這一年中看到的越來越多的消費者持謹慎和深思熟慮的態度。我們 - 所有早期跡像看起來都令人鼓舞，但我們也希望為每個人提供某種指導和想法，我們對此還沒有完全清楚。

Well, no, that makes sense. And then I guess, maybe for Todd, just curious if you can help us out with DNA here in the business. I mean, you've recast kind of the CapEx spend. I think this year, you're about $35 million in DNA, a little less than 6% of sales. Just curious if you can give us a benchmark for '23. And then maybe as we think about it longer term, where it kind of settles out in your 5-year plan, that would be helpful.

嗯，不，這是有道理的。然後我想，也許對於托德來說，只是好奇你是否可以幫助我們解決業務中的 DNA。我的意思是，你已經重塑了某種資本支出。我認為今年，你的 DNA 價值約為 3500 萬美元，略低於銷售額的 6%。只是好奇您是否可以為我們提供 23 年的基準。然後也許當我們從長遠考慮時，它會在您的 5 年計劃中解決，這會有所幫助。

Yes. So I'd say for '23, we'll be in the low $40 million. We don't have a precise number. It depends really the timing of some -- one of these -- some of the equipment gets installed, so that number is going to move around. Quite honestly, I don't have a '27 number for DNA. We'll work on that over time. But at this point, I do not have a number 5 years out.

是的。所以我想說 23 年，我們的收入將低於 4000 萬美元。我們沒有確切的數字。這實際上取決於某些設備（其中之一）的安裝時間，因此該數字將會移動。老實說，我沒有 27 號的 DNA。隨著時間的推移，我們會努力解決這個問題。但在這一點上，我沒有 5 年後的數字。

Our next question comes from the line of Anoori Naughton with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Anoori Naughton。

Billy, you and Scott have long talked about the strong relation between media spending and sales growth. And then this year, you again are spending close to 12% of sales -- 26% sales growth. But over time, for that percentage to fall and sales to continue to grow at a similar clip. So curious, if you've seen a change lately in that historical relationship that helped to inform the media leverage (inaudible) again over time. Any additional color on how you got comfortable with that 9% longer-term target?

比利，你和斯科特長期以來一直在談論媒體支出與銷售增長之間的密切關係。然後今年，您再次支出接近銷售額的 12%——26% 的銷售額增長。但隨著時間的推移，這個百分比會下降，而銷售額會繼續以類似的速度增長。很好奇，如果你最近看到這種歷史關係發生了變化，這種變化有助於隨著時間的推移再次通知媒體槓桿（聽不清）。關於您如何對 9% 的長期目標感到滿意的任何其他顏色？

I'll give the thought and Scott can add to it. We've seen a little bit of an erosion last year on the media effectiveness, but we attributed most of that to the out of stocks that we were seeing. So consumers are seeing the ad, but they couldn't find the product. Then as you got later in the year, as you know, we were basically off there in the fourth quarter. So your ability to track the 2 in concert was eliminated. But over a long period of time, the correlation has remained very, very strong, and we expect it to continue to remain strong.

我會給出想法，Scott 可以補充。去年我們看到媒體的有效性有所下降，但我們將其中大部分歸因於我們所看到的缺貨。所以消費者看到了廣告，但他們找不到產品。然後，正如你所知，今年晚些時候，我們基本上在第四季度就停在那裡了。所以你跟踪 2 的能力被消除了。但在很長一段時間內，相關性一直非常非常強，我們預計它會繼續保持強勢。

With all the pricing that we've had to take, you can also see periods behind every price increase where there is a debt. The consumers have a little bit of a shelf shock that they see the new higher prices. They kind of wait out the next purchase or 2, and then they start coming back to their purchase behavior. So we have to be mindful of that. But overall, we continue to believe the advertising is the right long-term driver.

通過我們必須採取的所有定價，您還可以看到每次價格上漲背後都有債務的時期。消費者對看到新的更高價格感到有點震驚。他們有點等待下一次購買或 2 次購買，然後他們開始恢復購買行為。所以我們必須注意這一點。但總的來說，我們仍然相信廣告是正確的長期驅動力。

In terms of how we get comfortable with the 9%, recall, when we were running closer to 12%, we were running growth rates in the mid-30s and higher. When we were running closer to 9% of growth rates, we're in the mid- to upper 20s. So there's actually a decent history of us demonstrating the kind of long-term growth that we've seen at 9% of sales, and that's how we got comfortable with that number.

就我們如何適應 9% 而言，回想一下，當我們接近 12% 時，我們的增長率在 30 年代中期甚至更高。當我們接近 9% 的增長率時，我們處於 20 多歲的中上層。因此，我們實際上有一段不錯的歷史，證明了我們在 9% 的銷售額中看到的那種長期增長，這就是我們對這個數字感到滿意的方式。

Yes. So we really -- we basically have planned this year to be slightly more conservative on the productivity of the advertising. We also know that as we add a lot more fridges, and we add good innovation, that helps with the productivity. So there's a bunch of these puts and takes that are going on. We've got pricing. Last year, we had out of stock. This year, we've got a lot of fridges coming and we have really strong innovation. And that typically helps with the productivity of advertising. But we also know that the pricing coming in couldn't basically impact that. So there's a lot of puts and takes.

是的。所以我們真的 - 我們基本上計劃今年在廣告生產力方面稍微保守一些。我們還知道，隨著我們添加更多的冰箱，並添加良好的創新，這有助於提高生產力。所以有很多這樣的投入和需要正在發生。我們有定價。去年，我們缺貨。今年，我們推出了很多冰箱，而且我們有非常強大的創新。這通常有助於提高廣告的生產力。但我們也知道，即將到來的定價基本上不會影響這一點。所以有很多投入和投入。

Overall, I think to the key point of your question, we have not seen any significant change in the long-term correlation in advertising, productivity and sales growth.

總的來說，我認為對於你問題的關鍵點，我們沒有看到廣告、生產力和銷售增長之間的長期相關性發生任何重大變化。

Great. That's really helpful. And as a follow-up, you're talking about some incremental innovation for the year. So if there's any color on what we can expect there, the cadence of when we could potentially see some of these new items come to market? Any color you take it there would be great.

偉大的。這真的很有幫助。作為後續行動，您正在談論今年的一些漸進式創新。因此，如果我們可以在那裡期待什麼顏色，我們什麼時候可以看到這些新產品上市的節奏？你把它帶到那裡的任何顏色都會很棒。

Yes. So we actually shared a bit and I know we share a lot. We shared a bit at ICR. We talked about some products in our Vital line called Vital Benefits. We are expanding our home style product line, Spring & Sprout, which is kind of our plant-based proteins. We think there's opportunity there over time and also really a leadership positioning there.

是的。所以我們實際上分享了一點，我知道我們分享了很多。我們在 ICR 分享了一點。我們談到了我們名為 Vital Benefits 的 Vital 系列中的一些產品。我們正在擴展我們的家居風格產品線 Spring & Sprout，這是一種我們的植物性蛋白質。我們認為隨著時間的推移那裡會有機會，而且那裡確實有領導地位。

And then probably most significantly for us this year is what we're talking about from an e-commerce standpoint and expanding kind of our presence in e-commerce and are offering their kind of a product that we're coming with at the end of this -- very end of this quarter and the beginning of next quarter, you'll start to see that kind of come out to the market. And we think it will be -- everything we've seen testing lines, it shows that it's a really kind of incremental and differentiated offering than what we have today. And we're kind of very enthusiastic and excited about that. It's going to be smaller this year, but we think long term, it can have a significant -- be a significant contributor to the growth.

然後，今年對我們來說最重要的可能是我們從電子商務的角度談論的內容，以及擴大我們在電子商務中的存在，並提供他們的產品，我們將在年底推出這——本季度末和下季度初，你將開始看到這種產品進入市場。我們認為這將是——我們所看到的所有測試線，它表明它確實是一種比我們今天擁有的增量和差異化產品。我們對此非常熱情和興奮。今年它會變小，但我們認為從長遠來看，它可以對增長做出重要貢獻。

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Holland with Cowen & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Brian Holland 與 Cowen & Company 的合作。

If I could just tack on to Anoori's question about the media investment. Just thinking kind of near term here as we contemplate the volume bridge in 2023, which I think assumes about 18%. First things first, when we turn off the media spend and we turn back on the media spend, just help us think about the lag that you anticipate between actually being on air spending those dollars and seeing the consumer receptivity.

如果我可以繼續回答 Anoori 關於媒體投資的問題。當我們考慮 2023 年的成交量橋時，只是想一下這裡的短期情況，我認為假設約為 18%。首先，當我們關閉媒體支出並重新開始媒體支出時，請幫助我們考慮一下您預計在實際播出這些美元和看到消費者接受度之間的滯後時間。

And then the second part of the volume question would be, is there any way you can quantify or contextualize how you think about the contribution from accelerated distribution and maybe to a lesser extent, innovation contribution over the next 12 months?

然後數量問題的第二部分是，有沒有什麼方法可以量化或背景化您如何看待加速分配的貢獻，以及在未來 12 個月內可能在較小程度上創新的貢獻？

Well, let me take this in a couple of parts to take that. So the first one is when you're at -- so Q4, we really had -- really no advertising whatsoever. And I think it was probably the most significant period where we didn't have anything for that long time, really almost anything for all of Q4. So I mean, the best analogy, Brian, is it's a little like a flywheel. And we have seen it in the past when we have less or very little in Q4, it takes 4 to 6 weeks at least to kind of start seeing that flywheel move and gain momentum. We're -- now we saw a nice kind of pickup over the literally the past couple of weeks in pounds. I think I mentioned that earlier. We like that. It's a great early indicator.

好吧，讓我把這個分成幾個部分來說明。所以第一個是當你在 - 所以第四季度，我們真的 - 真的沒有任何廣告。而且我認為這可能是最重要的時期，我們在很長一段時間內甚麼都沒有，整個第四季度幾乎什麼都沒有。所以我的意思是，最好的類比，布賴恩，就是它有點像飛輪。我們在過去看到它在第四季度很少或很少，至少需要 4 到 6 週才能開始看到飛輪移動並獲得動力。我們 - 現在我們看到過去幾週的英鎊出現了不錯的回升。我想我之前提到過。我們喜歡這樣。這是一個很好的早期指標。

It demonstrates that the advertising is directionally working. Obviously, we need to get some of the dynamics underneath that to work a lot harder and a lot better.

它表明廣告是定向工作的。顯然，我們需要獲得一些動力，才能更加努力和更好地工作。

I guess the second part of your question is in a typical year where we didn't have some of the pricing dynamics in place, we could probably give you a pretty clear kind of guidance or directional information on how the additional fridges and the innovation would help. I think because there are so many puts and takes, I don't think we have that perfect clarity right now, quite honestly. I think we've tried to budget it and it's reflected in our net sales guidance for the year. What we've tried to budget it that way, where we said these are the kind of those puts and takes altogether. And there have been lots and lots of work done around it. And we've put out a number that we feel good about. But -- so I wish I could tell you exactly on the advertising. But I think we have to kind of wait and watch it play through.

我想你問題的第二部分是在一個典型的年份，我們沒有一些定價動態，我們可能會給你一個非常明確的指導或方向信息，說明額外的冰箱和創新將如何幫助。我認為因為有太多的投入和投入，老實說，我認為我們現在沒有那麼完美的清晰度。我認為我們已經嘗試對其進行預算，並且它反映在我們今年的淨銷售指導中。我們試圖以這種方式對其進行預算，我們說這些就是那些投入和投入的類型。圍繞它已經做了很多很多工作。我們已經給出了一個我們感覺良好的數字。但是——所以我希望我能在廣告上準確地告訴你。但我認為我們必須等待並觀看它的播放。

And I think it's going to be a period over the next kind of 60 to 90 days where we get the second price increase reflected at shelf where we'll start to kind of understand what that impact is. Typically, after that price increase, it's a shelf, you see a kind of a 4-week kind of flattening and then you kind of go back on to the kind of trajectory that you would like to be at and see for the year.

我認為這將是接下來 60 到 90 天的一段時間，我們將在貨架上看到第二次價格上漲，我們將開始了解這種影響是什麼。通常，在價格上漲之後，它是一個貨架，你會看到一種為期 4 週的扁平化，然後你會回到你希望在這一年看到的那種軌跡。

Okay. Great. And then, Todd, if I could, both near-term and long-term thinking about the balance sheet. Just looking at the cadence that you put together for EBITDA. Just wondering any updates on credit agreement? Any risk of the covenant sort of in the near term? And do you have flexibility to adjust that as we think about that expiring, I think, around midyear?

好的。偉大的。然後，托德，如果可以的話，對資產負債表進行近期和長期思考。看看您為 EBITDA 制定的節奏。只是想知道有關信貸協議的任何更新？短期內契約有任何風險嗎？當我們考慮在年中左右到期時，您是否可以靈活地調整它？

And then secondly, $1.1 billion of CapEx, 4x $50 million is $200 million of balance sheet capacity if you go up to 4x. I know there's some cash on there as well. So just remind us, as we think beyond the next 12 months, do we have more flexibility on the CapEx plan, if needed? Or is the assumption that we would have to raise equity at some point. It's just you think you can get through the next 12 months without that?

其次，11 億美元的資本支出，4 倍的 5000 萬美元是 2 億美元的資產負債表容量，如果你達到 4 倍的話。我知道那裡也有一些現金。所以請提醒我們，在我們考慮未來 12 個月之後，如果需要的話，我們在資本支出計劃上是否有更大的靈活性？或者是我們必須在某個時候籌集股本的假設。只是你認為你可以在沒有它的情況下度過接下來的 12 個月？

Yes. So no issue on the covenants in Q4. So we were fine. We'll watch it closely in the first 2 quarters of the year. As you pointed out, we're going to have limited EBITDA for the first half of the year. I am hoping by the time we have our next conference call, we'll have a little bit more clarity on where we are from a credit agreement perspective. We're working very hard on that right now.

是的。因此，關於第四季度的契約沒有問題。所以我們很好。我們將在今年前兩個季度密切關注它。正如您所指出的，我們今年上半年的 EBITDA 將有限。我希望在我們召開下一次電話會議時，我們將從信貸協議的角度更清楚地了解我們所處的位置。我們現在正在為此努力工作。

As I've said a couple of times, I don't -- I am not going to be issuing straight equity here in '23. Could I do it in '24, '25? Yes, maybe if the market conditions are out there, and if it seems like a wise thing to do, I would never take that off the table. But I'm confident we will get something done here by midyear. And next time we're on the call, hopefully, that will be resolved.

正如我已經說過幾次，我不會——我不會在 23 年在這裡直接發行股票。我可以在 24 年、25 年做嗎？是的，也許如果市場條件在那裡，如果這似乎是明智之舉，我永遠不會把它從桌面上拿走。但我相信我們會在年中之前在這裡完成一些工作。下次我們通話時，希望這個問題能夠得到解決。

Our next question comes from the line of Rupesh Parikh with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自 Rupesh Parikh 與 Oppenheimer 的對話。

I also had a question on advertising. Just given a number of your competitors have stepped up advertising, I think there's also Super Bowl ad out there. I was just curious how you guys think about all that accelerated advertising, how that's impacting Freshpet?

我還有一個關於廣告的問題。鑑於您的許多競爭對手已經加大了廣告力度，我認為那裡也有超級碗廣告。我很好奇你們如何看待所有這些加速廣告，這對 Freshpet 有何影響？

Yes, there is definitely a lot of chatter in the market. And typically, it's interesting, we typically don't see quite as much in Q1, I think, historically, it feels like there is a lot going on this time of year. What we do know is we have extraordinary advertising that has, year after year after year, been able to produce the results that we need. I do think that there's a lot of -- even if you look at some of the advertising out there, including the Super Bowl ad, I think it creates incredible awareness around the Freshpet food category. I think that's really, really good for us.

是的，市場上肯定有很多議論。通常，這很有趣，我們通常在第一季度看不到那麼多，我認為，從歷史上看，感覺每年的這個時候都會發生很多事情。我們所知道的是，我們擁有非凡的廣告，年復一年，能夠產生我們需要的結果。我確實認為有很多 - 即使你看一些廣告，包括超級碗廣告，我認為它在 Freshpet 食品類別中創造了令人難以置信的意識。我認為這對我們來說真的非常好。

I think that as -- if you're -- one of the challenges we continue to have today and will for the foreseeable future is people may know about it, but they don't know why it's interest -- Freshpet food is interesting. I think having the leadership position we have across the products that we have, the brands we have, the distribution that we have and I would say the portfolio of products, the wide portfolio of products and price points that we have, I think we're really, really well positioned to be a very, very clear leader for the very, very long term. So as there's more advertising in the category, I think it brings awareness, I think it brings visibility, I think it can be helpful for us, and we do know that our advertising delivers very, very well.

我認為——如果你是——我們今天和可預見的未來繼續面臨的挑戰之一是人們可能知道它，但他們不知道為什麼它會感興趣——Freshpet 食品很有趣。我認為我們在我們擁有的產品、我們擁有的品牌、我們擁有的分銷以及產品組合、廣泛的產品組合和我們擁有的價格點方面處於領先地位，我認為我們'在非常非常長的時期內，我們真的非常適合成為非常非常明確的領導者。因此，隨著該類別中的廣告越來越多，我認為它帶來了意識，我認為它帶來了知名度，我認為這對我們有幫助，而且我們確實知道我們的廣告效果非常非常好。

Great. And then maybe one follow-up question for Todd. Just on working capital. Just curious if you guys are now past the ERP issues and then if you see any working capital opportunities this year?

偉大的。然後可能是托德的一個後續問題。僅靠營運資金。只是好奇你們現在是否已經解決了 ERP 問題，然後今年是否看到任何營運資金機會？

Yes. So we -- I would say we did not end the year in a perfect spot but a much better place than we were at the end of Q3. So I mean a lot of improvement. I think we will continue to improve a bit in '24 and that working capital as a percent of net sales will come down a bit. So we're definitely behind the worst and in a decent spot and still a little bit of an improvement to come this year.

是的。所以我們 - 我想說我們並沒有在一個完美的地方結束這一年，而是一個比我們在第三季度末更好的地方。所以我的意思是很多改進。我認為我們將在 24 年繼續有所改善，營運資金占淨銷售額的百分比將有所下降。所以我們肯定落後於最差的，處於一個不錯的位置，今年仍有一點改進。

Our next question comes from the line of Corey Grady with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Corey Grady 與 Jefferies 的對話。

First, I wanted to ask about pricing. Just on your outlook for 8.5% for the year. Does that include any, like, of the typical mix-up in the portfolio that you guys see every year? Or in a recessionary environment, would you expect that dynamic to pause?

首先，我想問一下定價。僅根據您對今年 8.5% 的預期。這是否包括你們每年看到的投資組合中的任何典型混淆？或者在經濟衰退的環境中，您是否希望這種動態會暫停？

That's based on -- that's just based on list price changes, that doesn't assume any mix change.

這是基於——這只是基於標價變化，不假設任何組合變化。

Yes. We usually see a couple of points of positive contribution from mix. And it's usually kind of 3% to up to 5%. When I see it pause -- I don't think so if I'm kind of -- maybe not on the high end, but I would think that we'd definitely be into that range from a mix standpoint. And the reason being, if you look at the innovation and the portfolio -- innovation in the portfolio that we have and what we naturally see consumer is kind of migrating to some of the better products that are now more available than they've been, like our Fresh From The Kitchen, for example, I think that we could see that dynamic again even this year.

是的。我們通常會看到混合的幾個積極貢獻點。通常是 3% 到 5%。當我看到它暫停時——如果我有點——我不這麼認為——也許不在高端，但我認為從混合的角度來看我們肯定會進入那個範圍。原因是，如果你看看創新和產品組合——我們擁有的產品組合中的創新以及我們自然看到的消費者正在遷移到一些更好的產品，這些產品現在比以前更容易獲得，例如我們的 Fresh From The Kitchen，我認為即使在今年我們也能再次看到這種活力。

Because, again, it goes back to these high -- these HIPPOH's, these high-profit pet-owning households for us are very heavy households. I think they're going to exhibit that similar type behavior. Now it may not be in Q1. But I think over the course of the year, I think we're going to see that dynamic.

因為，它又回到了這些高——這些 HIPPOH，這些高利潤的寵物擁有家庭對我們來說是非常沉重的家庭。我認為他們會表現出類似的行為。現在它可能不在 Q1 中。但我認為在這一年中，我認為我們將看到這種動態。

Yes. I would just emphasize in Scott's answer of that the availability of our Fresh From The Kitchen product this year, which is significantly better than where it was last year will give us a benefit. We saw some of that in Q4. But as we lap last year's Q1 and Q2, we should see some of that benefit of migration up to Fresh From The Kitchen.

是的。我只想在 Scott 的回答中強調，今年我們的 Fresh From The Kitchen 產品的可用性明顯好於去年，這將給我們帶來好處。我們在第四季度看到了其中的一些。但是當我們結束去年的第一季度和第二季度時，我們應該看到遷移到 Fresh From The Kitchen 的一些好處。

That's really helpful. And then my second question, I wanted to ask about just the new HIPPOH's demographic that you're targeting. I mean, what are you assuming in terms of CAC going forward relative to historical as you target these customers? Maybe you could take the opportunity to talk about acquiring higher-value customers with a lower level of media spend?

這真的很有幫助。然後是我的第二個問題，我想問一下您所針對的新 HIPPOH 人口統計。我的意思是，當您針對這些客戶時，您假設 CAC 相對於歷史而言是什麼？也許您可以藉此機會談談以較低的媒體支出水平獲得更高價值的客戶？

Yes. So if you think about it today, I don't think we're going to adjust our CAC specific to HIPPOH's. I mean, we probably have some internal metrics, but it's probably not something that we're going to talk about more broadly. We probably keep our CAC in a similar range and top total households over time. And if we do change it, I don't think we're quite ready to kind of share -- you just get into sharing externally that level of detail and complexity, quite honestly, in the model.

是的。因此，如果您今天考慮一下，我認為我們不會針對 HIPPOH 調整我們的 CAC。我的意思是，我們可能有一些內部指標，但我們可能不會更廣泛地討論它。隨著時間的推移，我們可能會將我們的 CAC 保持在類似的範圍內，並在總家庭中名列前茅。如果我們真的改變它，我認為我們還沒有準備好分享——老實說，你只是在外部分享模型中的細節和復雜程度。

So I would keep CAC in kind of the traditional range. Now again, CAC is not a monthly or -- and really -- in reality, not even necessarily a quarter. It's typically what we see over the course of the year is where you're going to get the most accurate reads on it. And I would say -- I would really emphasize that because of all the dynamics that are going on in the market right now. Hopefully, that gives you what you need.

所以我會讓 CAC 保持在傳統範圍內。再說一次，CAC 不是每月一次，也不是——事實上——實際上，甚至不一定是一個季度。通常，我們在一年中看到的是您將獲得最準確的讀數的地方。而且我會說 - 我真的會強調這一點，因為現在市場上正在發生的所有動態。希望這能滿足您的需求。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lavery with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Michael Lavery 和 Piper Sandler 的台詞。

Just wanted to understand some of the input costs and just how to think about, say, chicken, for example, specifically, it's -- prices have come in a little bit. How fixed is that for you? Is that a benefit? Should we be thinking about it that way? And when the new chicken processing plant comes online? And with your partner in Ennis, does that change how any of the pricing dynamics for your sourcing?

只是想了解一些投入成本，以及如何考慮，比如說，雞肉，具體來說，它的價格已經上漲了一點。這對你有多固定？那是一個好處嗎？我們應該這樣想嗎？新的雞肉加工廠什麼時候上線？與您在恩尼斯的合作夥伴一起，這是否會改變您採購的任何定價動態？

Yes. So the chicken pricing, we lock the bulk of our chicken for an annual -- on an annual basis, that was done in December, and it was assumed in the pricing that we put in the market for February. It was slightly below where it had been a year ago, but not the magnitude that people may have seen as they watch chicken overall, the broader chicken market ramp up last year and then drop back down the kind of chicken that we buy didn't go up as much and didn't go down as much. So there's really not a lot of leverage on the chicken pricing for the balance of this year.

是的。因此，雞肉定價，我們每年鎖定大部分雞肉——每年 12 月完成，我們在 2 月份投放市場的定價中假設了這一點。它略低於一年前的水平，但不是人們在整體觀察雞肉時可能看到的幅度，去年更廣泛的雞肉市場上升然後回落，我們買的那種雞肉沒有漲了那麼多，沒跌那麼多。因此，在今年餘下的時間裡，雞肉定價確實沒有太大的影響力。

Your comment about the Ennis chicken processing facility, when that facility begins and it begins operating at scale. There is an opportunity for a benefit in lower cost chicken. First, because it's sourced in a different part of the country and chicken pricing can be regional. And the second is because of obviously the efficiency of being an on-site facility. So we're very encouraged and optimistic, and that's part of the rationale for having built the chicken processing facility, but we're not ready yet to commit to or forecast what that magnitude of that improvement will be.

您對恩尼斯雞肉加工廠的評論，該設施何時開始並開始大規模運營。有機會從低成本的雞肉中獲益。首先，因為它來自該國的不同地區，雞肉定價可能是區域性的。第二個是因為作為現場設施的效率顯然很高。所以我們非常鼓舞和樂觀，這是建造雞肉加工廠的部分理由，但我們還沒有準備好承諾或預測這種改進的幅度。

Okay. That's helpful. And I just wanted to follow up on the comment you made about potential technology improvements that sounds like a -- how you think about one of the upcoming lines? And I guess any more color you could add to that? And then at least specifically, would that be sort of a different set of equipment? Or is it something that could be applied retroactively back to some of the other lines as well? Or how could that play out?

好的。這很有幫助。我只是想跟進你對潛在技術改進的評論，這聽起來像是——你如何看待即將推出的產品線之一？我想你還可以添加更多顏色嗎？然後至少具體地說，那會是一套不同的設備嗎？或者它是否也可以追溯應用於其他一些線路？或者結果如何？

Yes. So I would say we're constantly working to improve the technology to make Freshpet. You should expect we're looking for ways to deliver higher quality, higher yield, more capital efficient, taking up less space, and we have some pretty good leads that are taking us down that path. And if they do pan out, we would certainly try to retrofit anything back into the original facilities as much as possible. But at this point, we're just leaving the option open. Our comments were really focused on leaving the options open because we do have some...

是的。所以我想說我們一直在努力改進製造 Freshpet 的技術。你應該預料到我們正在尋找提供更高質量、更高收益、更高資本效率、佔用更少空間的方法，並且我們有一些非常好的線索正在帶領我們走上這條路。如果他們真的成功了，我們當然會盡可能地嘗試將任何東西改裝回原來的設施。但在這一點上，我們只是讓這個選項保持開放狀態。我們的評論真正集中在保留選項上，因為我們確實有一些……

Our next question comes from the line of Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jason English with Goldman Sachs。

Two quick questions -- well, one quick question and one not-so quick question. First, a quick one, and I apologize if you've provided this, can you give us the details of how you plan to fund the CapEx this year?

兩個快速問題——好吧，一個快速問題和一個不那麼快速的問題。首先，一個快速的，如果你提供了這個，我很抱歉，你能告訴我們你計劃如何為今年的資本支出提供資金的細節嗎？

Yes. So we ended the year with about $130 million of cash. We will generate some cash flow this year. So that's a good thing, probably in the range of $30 million to $35 million of cash flow generated from operations. We are going to redo the credit facility in some shape or form. So we will leverage some of that as well. So those are the basic building blocks. I'm very confident we'll be able to get that done.

是的。因此，我們在這一年結束時擁有大約 1.3 億美元的現金。今年我們將產生一些現金流。所以這是一件好事，運營產生的現金流量可能在 3000 萬至 3500 萬美元之間。我們將以某種形式重做信貸安排。所以我們也將利用其中的一些。所以這些是基本的構建塊。我非常有信心我們能夠完成這項工作。

Okay. Okay. And sticking on the theme of cash flow. You gave us a lot of incremental color at CAGNY last week. And I want to zoom in a bit on 2027, which seems like it's a bit more reflective of a bit more of a steady state business. The CapEx numbers you're projecting out there is still pretty lofty, close to 9% of sales, and you mentioned a 4-turn leverage target, which assuming a 6% loan borrowing rate equates to almost 5% of sales in terms of interest expense.

好的。好的。並堅持現金流的主題。上週你在 CAGNY 給了我們很多增量色彩。我想放大一點 2027 年，這似乎更能反映出更多的穩態業務。您預測的資本支出數字仍然很高，接近銷售額的 9%，並且您提到了 4 輪槓桿目標，假設 6% 的貸款借款利率相當於銷售額的近 5%（就利息而言）費用。

This leaves you with free cash flow of around 4.5% of sales based on that disclosure. And that's assuming a 0 tax rate. If we actually normalize the tax rate, you'll end up with a very, very low single-digit free cash flow out in 2027. I know it's going to take time to bleed out those NOLs, but I still think it's a reasonable way to look at it. I mean, is that what we're looking at? Is the goal here 5 years out, like we're still -- were just barely generating free cash flow given the capital intensity of this business? And at what point in the future do you think -- will we ever actually get to like a meaningful inflection where there's better cash generation as a percentage of sales?

根據該披露，這使您的自由現金流量約為銷售額的 4.5%。這是假設稅率為 0。如果我們真的將稅率正常化，到 2027 年你將得到非常非常低的個位數自由現金流。我知道需要時間來消除這些 NOL，但我仍然認為這是一種合理的方式看看它。我的意思是，這就是我們要看的嗎？這裡的目標是 5 年後，就像我們仍然一樣 - 鑑於這項業務的資本密集度，我們只是勉強產生自由現金流？你認為在未來的什麼時候——我們真的會喜歡一個有意義的轉折點，即現金產生佔銷售額的百分比更高嗎？

Yes. So look, as I said at CAGNY, our expectation is we'll be free cash flow positive in '26 and then it's going to incrementally improve over time. Our expectations are, we try to lay out some targets from a margin perspective that we thought were very attainable. We talked about some -- where we thought the upsides were longer term on margins. And we feel like those could come into play over the next several years as well. We just talked about some new technologies we are working on to reduce CapEx over time and to improve profitability.

是的。所以看，正如我在 CAGNY 所說的那樣，我們的預期是我們將在 26 年實現自由現金流為正，然後隨著時間的推移逐漸改善。我們的期望是，我們試圖從我們認為可以實現的利潤率角度製定一些目標。我們談到了一些——我們認為利潤率的長期優勢。我們覺得這些也可能在未來幾年發揮作用。我們剛剛談到了我們正在研究的一些新技術，以隨著時間的推移減少資本支出並提高盈利能力。

So look -- yes, is that free cash flow outlook over the -- in the next several years look robust? Not a lot, but we have some clear opportunities past that point to dramatically increase free cash flow.

所以看 - 是的，未來幾年的自由現金流前景是否強勁？不是很多，但我們有一些明確的機會來大幅增加自由現金流。

Our next question comes from the line of Ben Bienvenu with Stephens Inc.

我們的下一個問題來自 Ben Bienvenu 與 Stephens Inc. 的合作。

It's Jim on for Ben. Todd, I guess, first a follow-up on Jason's question there on kind of some of the cash flow timing. Can you give us an idea, if the first half of the year is essentially going to be very modest EBITDA that can be held back half weighted. Can you give us an idea for the -- how you guys will draw on the credit facility and what that will look like kind of going into the back half of the year and maybe expected interest rate?

吉姆接替本。托德，我想，首先是對傑森提出的一些現金流量時間安排的問題進行跟進。你能給我們一個想法嗎，如果今年上半年基本上是非常適中的 EBITDA，可以阻止一半加權。你能否給我們一個想法 - 你們將如何利用信貸機制以及進入今年下半年的情況以及預期利率？

Yes. So look, we're -- again, we're in the middle of redoing that credit agreement. So I'm not going to comment on how that's exactly going to get drawn and what the terms are. So more to come on that. You -- my job is to get that done, and I'm very, very confident that we'll be in good shape. There's a couple of different alternatives we have out there. Again, more to come on it.

是的。所以看，我們 - 再一次，我們正在重做該信貸協議。所以我不打算評論這究竟是如何繪製的以及條款是什麼。所以還有更多的事情要做。你 - 我的工作是完成這項工作，我非常非常有信心我們會處於良好狀態。我們有幾種不同的選擇。再說一次，還有更多。

Again, we ended with some significant cash at year-end. So that will keep us going for a while. And we're going to watch every penny of CapEx as the year goes on. So I am fully aware of the cash needs of this business in the near term, and I'm going to go get it solved.

同樣，我們在年底以大量現金結束。所以這會讓我們繼續一段時間。隨著時間的推移，我們將關注資本支出的每一分錢。因此，我完全了解這項業務在短期內的現金需求，我將去解決它。

Okay. Great. And then maybe one for you guys, Billy and Scott. You called out stronger trends among the kind of heavy -- super heavy households versus kind of a broader household demographics. Is that driven by just in-stocks finally being at a consistent level? Was there something else at work there that is having the results with the super heavy and heavy households be kind of add of the (inaudible) portfolio?

好的。偉大的。然後也許是你們，Billy 和 Scott。你在那種沉重的——超沉重的家庭與更廣泛的家庭人口統計數據中指出了更強烈的趨勢。這是由庫存最終處於一致水平所驅動的嗎？是否有其他因素在起作用，使超重和重家庭的結果成為（聽不清）投資組合的一部分？

I don't think it has to do with in-stocks. I think those are the people that have sought us out over time and actually could be willing to either switch or even change stores. We have a pretty long-term kind of picture of these people. We've had really good consistent growth with them over time. And I think what we're recognizing as we mature is that we want to make sure that we want to focus on those more than ever.

我認為這與庫存無關。我認為這些人隨著時間的推移一直在尋找我們，實際上可能願意更換甚至更換商店。我們對這些人有相當長期的了解。隨著時間的推移，我們與他們取得了非常好的持續增長。而且我認為，隨著我們的成熟，我們認識到的是，我們希望確保我們比以往任何時候都更加關注這些。

There -- over 80% of our total dollars, they're the people that are very, very dedicated to this idea. There's a lot more of them out there, and we want to base our business even more so focusing on those folks. So I don't think I have to do with more recent in-stocks. But I think it's -- I guess, it could help. But I don't think that's really -- that has not been the dynamic we've seen historically. We have like a 5-year trend on the [stocks].

那裡 - 我們總資金的 80% 以上，他們是非常非常致力於這個想法的人。那裡有更多的人，我們希望將我們的業務更多地放在這些人身上。所以我認為我不必處理最近的庫存。但我認為它 - 我想，它可能會有所幫助。但我不認為那是真的——這不是我們在歷史上看到的動態。我們有 [stocks] 的 5 年趨勢。

Our next question comes from the line of Bill Chappell with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Bill Chappell。

Just want to talk a little bit about kind of the, what I would say, soft landing in the second half. I mean you will have lapped most of your pricing. Advertising will obviously come back a little bit as you move to the second half. And so just trying to understand how volumes pick back up to make up? I mean I think you said you're going to have -- you had 15 points of price benefit last year, you're going to have 9 this year in the first half.

我只想談談下半場的軟著陸。我的意思是你會重疊你的大部分定價。當你進入下半場時，廣告顯然會回來一點。所以只是想了解成交量如何回升以彌補？我的意思是我認為你說過你將擁有 - 去年你有 15 個價格優勢，今年上半年你將有 9 個。

So is it just a case of further in-stocks and added fridges versus supply constraints last year? And does that give you enough momentum so that you can -- as we move into '24, still have kind of this high or in the 20% plus type growth? Or are there other things that I need to be thinking about?

那麼，這僅僅是庫存增加和冰箱增加與去年供應緊張的情況嗎？這是否給了你足夠的動力，讓你可以——當我們進入 24 世紀時，仍然有這種高或 20% 以上的增長？或者還有其他我需要考慮的事情嗎？

Yes. Bill, I would say that you should view this year as a year where momentum builds. So we start with all the pricing that we've taken, including the most recent price increase, having impacts on unit volume, pound volume. And the advertising investment that we've made, which is front-loaded again, starting to jump start that engine getting to growth. The fridges are going to come on, they're going to come on at a fairly heavy rate in the first half of the year, and we'll amplify the value of that advertising.

是的。比爾，我想說你應該將今年視為勢頭增強的一年。因此，我們從我們採取的所有定價開始，包括最近的價格上漲，對單位數量、磅數量產生影響。我們所做的廣告投資，再次提前投入，開始啟動該引擎實現增長。冰箱將會出現，它們將在今年上半年以相當高的速度出現，我們將放大廣告的價值。

The in-stock positions we start with being the year are pretty good. So I think it's -- the advertising is falling on very fertile ground. So we expect to see continued build as you move towards the back half of the year. And we'd expect to see household penetration gains in the back half of the year that are much more consistent with our long-term trends than what you're seeing.

我們從今年開始的庫存頭寸非常好。所以我認為這是 - 廣告正在落在非常肥沃的土地上。因此，我們希望看到您在今年下半年繼續建設。我們預計今年下半年的家庭普及率將比您所看到的更符合我們的長期趨勢。

We will have -- from a net sales perspective, we'll have to lap the trade inventory refill that we did in the fourth quarter. So you won't necessarily see it all in the net sales, but you will see it in the consumption. I don't know if that answers the question now, but that's the way we see it unfolding for this year.

我們將擁有 - 從淨銷售額的角度來看，我們將不得不重複我們在第四季度所做的貿易庫存補充。所以你不一定會在淨銷售額中看到這一切，但你會在消費中看到它。我不知道這是否能回答現在的問題，但這就是我們看到它今年展開的方式。

Got it. No, stay tuned. The second question just on the competitive landscape. There have been some commentary from a competitor that -- there was -- I'm not quoting, lots of fridge availability at the retail side for other competitors come in. And if that's the case, do you -- I guess, one, do you have a lot more opportunity to add fridges this year? And two, if that's not the case, can you maybe help us understand the dynamics there?

知道了。不，敬請期待。第二個問題只是關於競爭格局。有一些來自競爭對手的評論 - 我沒有引用，零售方面有很多冰箱供其他競爭對手使用。如果是這樣的話，你 - 我猜，一個，今年你有更多機會添加冰箱嗎？第二，如果情況並非如此，您能否幫助我們了解那裡的動態？

Yes, Bill, as I said at CAGNY, I found that comment a lot as you did. The reality is we're in 60% ACV today. If this was an easy thing to do, we have the highest productivity per linear foot or cubic foot at retail in the pet category, and we deliver the best margins. If this was an easy thing for the retailer to do, we'd be an 85% ACV today. So I found it really odd that we heard that comment, but we'll see what their plan is. As we all know, Walmart has invested in fridges, not many other people have. So I'm not sure what they're thinking.

是的，比爾，正如我在 CAGNY 所說的那樣，我和你一樣發現了很多評論。事實上，我們今天的 ACV 為 60%。如果這是一件容易的事，那麼我們在寵物零售領域擁有最高的每線性英尺或每立方英尺的生產率，並且我們提供最好的利潤。如果這對零售商來說是一件容易的事，那麼我們今天的 ACV 將達到 85%。所以我覺得我們聽到那個評論真的很奇怪，但我們會看看他們的計劃是什麼。眾所周知，沃爾瑪投資了冰箱，其他人並不多。所以我不確定他們在想什麼。

Our next question comes from the line of Mark Astrachan with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Mark Astrachan。

Yes. I wanted to ask about a couple of things related to volume. So first, you talked about media spend being back on air year-to-date versus 4Q. Could you talk a bit about how volumes have progressed relative to expectations? If I look at our scanner data, volume trends have been largely flat with 4Q. So how would you expect that to progress relative to the advertising spend?

是的。我想問一些與音量有關的事情。首先，您談到了年初至今與第四季度的媒體支出。您能否談談銷量相對於預期的進展情況？如果我查看我們的掃描儀數據，第四季度的銷量趨勢基本持平。那麼，相對於廣告支出，您預計它會如何發展？

And related to that or sort of related to that 13% or so in the fridge space by my calculation, how do we think about the productivity of that adding to the sales growth, layering on your volume assumptions and layering on the points of price that you talked about?

根據我的計算，與此相關或與冰箱空間的 13% 左右相關，我們如何考慮增加銷售增長的生產率，分層你的數量假設和分層價格點你談過嗎？

Mark, so I'm a little obsessive with it, especially during this type of period. I look at the pounds weekly. And I'm a prior period guy, right? I'm all about -- when I look at the business, I could care less about a year ago as interesting, but it's all about prior period and are we making progress. And so I've been watching pounds weekly. Every single week over the past 4 or 5 weeks -- actually almost 6 weeks, we've made progress in pounds versus if you take a look at Q4 and we should reconcile potentially on the numbers here maybe offline.

馬克，所以我對它有點著迷，尤其是在這種時期。我每週看磅數。我是前期的人，對吧？我是關於——當我審視業務時，我可能不太關心一年前是否有趣，但這全都與前期有關，我們是否正在取得進展。所以我每週都在觀察體重。在過去的 4 或 5 週內的每一周——實際上將近 6 週，我們在磅數方面取得了進展，如果你看一下第四季度，我們應該在此處可能離線的數字上進行協調。

But when you look at Q4, we're up about 6% versus Q4, which is right in line with where we expect it to be from -- on a pounds basis year-to-date. Would I like to be higher? Absolutely. And we're kind of in that double-digit range, low double digit, but we're in the double-digit range on pounds. So we're kind of tracking with exactly how we would expect.

但是，當您查看第四季度時，我們比第四季度增長了約 6%，這與我們預期的情況一致——按年初至今的磅數計算。我想更高嗎？絕對地。我們有點在那個兩位數的範圍內，低兩位數，但我們在磅數上處於兩位數的範圍內。所以我們正在跟踪我們的預期。

So -- then the second part of your question was around fridges. So fridges unquestionably add availability. But at the end of the day, we're selling dollars and pounds and it helps with the advertising productivity, et cetera, et cetera. Now when fridges come on, it's great that they come on. But -- and again, I'm looking versus prior period, we haven't added a whole lot quite yet. We've added some kind of quarter-to-date. The biggest quarter is going to be probably next quarter and from a fridge standpoint, we'll add a lot during that period. And it will help.

所以——那麼你問題的第二部分是關於冰箱的。因此，冰箱無疑增加了可用性。但歸根結底，我們正在出售美元和英鎊，這有助於提高廣告效率等等。現在，當冰箱啟動時，它們啟動真是太好了。但是——再一次，我正在看與前期相比，我們還沒有增加很多。我們添加了某種季度至今。最大的季度可能是下個季度，從冰箱的角度來看，我們將在此期間增加很多。這會有所幫助。

But when a fridge first goes in, the first couple of weeks, it's not doing a whole lot. It takes a few months. I think the number we quote is within 6 months is doing about 80% of what that channel typically ends up doing if we add a totally new fridge. We are adding a lot of second fridges here. They take a little bit longer in order to create the level of productivity that we would see on a first fridge, for example.

但是當冰箱第一次投入使用時，前幾週，它並沒有做很多事情。這需要幾個月的時間。我認為我們引用的數字是在 6 個月內完成的，如果我們添加一個全新的冰箱，該渠道通常最終完成的工作大約是 80%。我們在這裡增加了很多第二台冰箱。例如，他們需要更長的時間才能達到我們在第一台冰箱上看到的生產力水平。

So we know that those definitely add. And we have -- we've done a bottoms-up view on what the fridges add over the course of the year with the advertising ads and how kind of -- how it all works together. And that's kind of how we've gotten to the guidance that we've all gotten comfortable with. Does that give you enough...

所以我們知道那些肯定會增加。我們已經 - 我們已經對冰箱在一年中通過廣告添加的內容以及它們如何協同工作進行了自下而上的觀察。這就是我們如何獲得我們都熟悉的指導。給你夠了嗎...

Just let me add one more point, Mark, because not everybody sees all the data that we see. When you add pet in pet historically, and I mean in much of last year was a very significant drag on the published Nielsen data, but on our data, not the published data. But it has had a rebirth lately, the last 4 weeks, we're up 20% versus a year ago. So we're starting to see renewed growth in the pet channel that is helping pull the total business along. So I would just add that piece to it.

讓我再補充一點，馬克，因為不是每個人都能看到我們看到的所有數據。當你在歷史上添加寵物時，我的意思是在去年的大部分時間裡，這對發布的尼爾森數據有很大的拖累，但對我們的數據，而不是發布的數據。但它最近重生了，過去 4 週，我們比一年前增長了 20%。因此，我們開始看到寵物渠道的新增長，這有助於拉動整體業務。所以我只想把那部分加進去。

That's definitely helpful, Scott, to answer your question. And just related to that, you called that out in the presentation, right, the pet specialty piece. So would the expectation be that, that continues to build relative to the number in the fourth quarter? And what's driving it? Is the comparison coming off of the big base from a couple of years ago? What's going on within that channel?

斯科特，這絕對有助於回答您的問題。與此相關的是，您在演示文稿中提到了這一點，對，寵物專業作品。那麼預期會是，相對於第四季度的數字會繼續增加嗎？是什麼在推動它？幾年前的大基數比較嗎？該頻道內發生了什麼？

We've had -- we've continually added fridges in the channel, which is helpful. Quite honestly, 1 of the biggest ones is it has been the most disrupted supply chain we probably had. I mean, I -- it's just the facts around it. So I think that as we're having -- and the other thing is you missed -- if you miss a shopping trip in pet, you're not coming back there next week. You miss a shopping trip in grocery, you may have a chance to get a consumer back. It's -- the average shopping trip for pet specialty is like 30-something days where a grocery store could be twice a week, right?

我們已經 - 我們不斷在頻道中添加冰箱，這很有幫助。老實說，最大的問題之一是它可能是我們可能擁有的供應鏈中斷最嚴重的一次。我的意思是，我 - 這只是圍繞它的事實。所以我認為，正如我們所擁有的——另一件事是你錯過了——如果你錯過了一次寵物購物之旅，你下週就不會再回來了。你錯過了一次在雜貨店的購物之旅，你可能有機會讓消費者回來。這是——寵物專賣店的平均購物時間大約是 30 天左右，而雜貨店可能每週去兩次，對嗎？

So it's just -- it creates a really tough dynamic to recover from a sales standpoint. Now -- and we were just not in a good spot for a very, very long time, and it actually has taken a little bit longer to recover kind of getting in-stock and in pet. So I think that, that's been a part of the dynamic. Now I think overall, again, I go back to the advertising that's on air is we know it's incredibly impactful with some of the best advertising we've ever had. And I think that's going to drive across all channels over the course of the year.

所以它只是 - 從銷售的角度來看，它創造了一個非常艱難的動力來恢復。現在——我們在很長很長一段時間內都沒有處於一個好位置，而且實際上需要更長的時間才能恢復庫存和寵物。所以我認為，這是動態的一部分。現在我認為總體而言，我再次回到正在播放的廣告，我們知道它對我們曾經擁有的一些最好的廣告具有令人難以置信的影響。我認為這將在這一年中推動所有渠道。

Our next question comes from the line of Cody Ross with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Cody Ross。

I just had 2 quick clarification questions and then one longer-term picture question. First, on the mix that you talked about, 3 to 5 points you usually get a benefit. Is that in your guidance for this year for sales to grow 26%?

我剛剛有 2 個快速澄清問題，然後是一個長期圖片問題。首先，在您談到的組合中，您通常可以獲得 3 到 5 分的收益。這是否符合您對今年銷售額增長 26% 的指導？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. And then secondly, on the EBITDA, you guided 1Q EBITDA to be negative with an improvement in 2Q and essentially all of the EBITDA for '23 to be generated in the second half. Does this mean that your cash burn will be greater in the first half as well?

好的。其次，在 EBITDA 上，您引導第一季度 EBITDA 為負，第二季度有所改善，基本上所有 23 年的 EBITDA 都將在下半年產生。這是否意味著你的現金消耗在上半年也會更大？

Yes. Yes, it will be greater in the first half than the second half. That is a correct statement.

是的。是的，上半年會比下半年更大。這是正確的說法。

Okay. And then just more longer term, you consistently delivered against your top line goals each year as new competitors have come and gone. Do you think a more formidable competitor in the category would help accelerate growth in the category? Or would it impede your ability to grow and reach your goals?

好的。然後從更長期來看，隨著新競爭對手的出現和消失，您每年都始終如一地實現您的最高目標。您認為該類別中更強大的競爭對手是否有助於加速該類別的增長？還是會阻礙您成長和實現目標的能力？

And what we've seen in other categories is the arrival of another competitor. If they do a good job and they spend money, obviously increases the size of the total category. And that's viewed as a good thing. Most leading brands, if they continue to execute well, end up with a smaller share of a larger market, but a larger business in total. So we'd have to see what the quality execution has been.

我們在其他類別中看到的是另一個競爭對手的到來。如果他們做得好並且花錢，顯然會增加總類別的規模。這被視為一件好事。大多數領先品牌，如果它們繼續表現良好，最終會在更大的市場中佔有較小的份額，但總體業務規模會更大。所以我們必須看看執行質量如何。

What you can see from the competitors who come at us in the past, is they really haven't been additive to the category, and they've ultimately ended up leaving because they just didn't have the velocity to justify the space they were taking up and certainly didn't produce the economics that they were expecting. So it really depends on what the quality of the execution is. But I would suggest that this is a category that's going to grow very fast and more investment is going to make it even bigger, faster.

你可以從過去來找我們的競爭對手那裡看到的是，他們真的沒有加入這個類別，他們最終離開了，因為他們只是沒有足夠的速度來證明他們的空間是合理的接受並肯定沒有產生他們所期望的經濟效益。所以這真的取決於執行的質量。但我認為這是一個增長非常快的類別，更多的投資將使它變得更大、更快。

Our next question comes from the line of Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Robert Moskow。

Hard to believe that there are more questions, but maybe just a couple of quick ones. In your 2027 number that Jason was talking about, I think you have a $200 million CapEx number in there. Is that considered run rate CapEx? I guess it isn't. Is it like how much of that is still growth and do you think by 2028, it's a lower CapEx number? And maybe you could help us a little bit on is any of it related to fridges, I would imagine that would -- that type of spending would continue?

很難相信還有更多的問題，但也許只是幾個快速的問題。在 Jason 談到的 2027 年數字中，我認為你有 2 億美元的資本支出數字。這被認為是運行率資本支出嗎？我想不是。這其中有多少仍在增長，你認為到 2028 年，資本支出數字會降低嗎？也許你可以幫助我們解決與冰箱有關的任何問題，我想那會 - 這種支出會繼續嗎？

Yes. So a couple of thoughts on it. It does include fridges. I would assume, over time, the rate of growth in fridges ultimately will slow down as we get the ACV and multiple fridges in many, many retail outlets across the country. So we will invest heavily in that area over the next couple of years, but that will slow down over time.

是的。所以有幾個想法。它確實包括冰箱。我認為，隨著時間的推移，隨著我們在全國許多許多零售店獲得 ACV 和多台冰箱，冰箱的增長率最終會放緩。因此，我們將在未來幾年內在該領域進行大量投資，但隨著時間的推移會放緩。

CapEx, I would say as you go 5 years out, will be dependent on a couple of things. One is, what is our expectation for a rate of growth when we get into that '26, '27 time frame, we're still growing 25%? Or do we see that coming down a bit? And the other variable is do technologies, as we've been discussing. So those are the big variables. Could it be as high as $200 million in our run rate? It could, if we're growing at an extraordinary rate, but I think that's TBD at this point.

資本支出，我想說的是 5 年後，將取決於幾件事。一是，當我們進入 26 年、27 年的時間框架時，我們對增長率的預期是什麼，我們仍在增長 25%？還是我們看到它有所下降？正如我們一直在討論的那樣，另一個變量是技術。所以這些是很大的變數。我們的運行率會高達 2 億美元嗎？它可以，如果我們以驚人的速度增長，但我認為這是待定的。

Well, then I guess the question is, is it possible to break out the $200 million in terms of maintenance versus growth?

好吧，那麼我想問題是，是否有可能在維護與增長方面突破 2 億美元？

So I mean the fridges we tend to spend right now about $25 million to $30 million a year. And then we have nominal maintenance on the plant. So the vast majority of what we're spending on capital today, I would say, 75%, 80% of it is growth in new capacity.

所以我的意思是我們現在傾向於每年花費大約 2500 萬到 3000 萬美元的冰箱。然後我們對工廠進行名義上的維護。所以我們今天在資本上的絕大部分支出，我想說，75%，其中 80% 是新產能的增長。

Our final question this morning comes from the line of Jon Andersen with William Blair.

我們今天早上的最後一個問題來自喬恩·安徒生和威廉·布萊爾的台詞。

Two quick ones. I wanted to ask about Ennis. If you can talk a little bit about the ramp of line -- around the rolls line versus your internal plan, productivity, et cetera? And then does that signal, depending on how that's gone, and we believe it's gone well, right? Does that signal well for Line 2? Or is the Line 2 effort really unique, different, distinct given that it will be focused on bags? What are some of the key milestones we should be looking for or you're looking for around the development of that second line?

兩個快的。我想問問關於恩尼斯的事。如果你能談談生產線的斜坡——圍繞軋製線與你的內部計劃、生產力等？然後那個信號，取決於它是如何消失的，我們相信它進展順利，對吧？這對 2 號線來說信號好嗎？還是 2 號線的努力真的是獨一無二的、不同的、獨特的，因為它將專注於包包？我們應該尋找哪些關鍵里程碑，或者您正在尋找第二條線的開發？

Yes, Jon, the rolls line is going well. It's ramping up at a pace that is in line with our expectations, maybe slightly ahead of our expectations at this point, producing the full range of SKUs and in reasonable quantities of volume. They are separate efforts, although if you can avoid having a distraction from the first line to focus your energy on the second line, it certainly helps you get the second line up and running more quickly and more reliably.

是的，喬恩，軋輥生產線進展順利。它正在以符合我們預期的速度增長，目前可能略高於我們的預期，生產全系列的 SKU 和合理的數量。它們是不同的努力，但如果您可以避免從第一條線上分心而將精力集中在第二條線上，那肯定會幫助您更快、更可靠地啟動和運行第二條線。

I can tell you, as I said on the comments, that the second line is doing well. We're well along in the commissioning part of that process, and we'd expect to bring that line up fairly quickly. To recognize though that line has to produce a fairly wide range of SKUs, everything from our roasted meals, to our multi-protein, to our small dog, to our Fresh From The Kitchen products. So it will take a little bit longer to qualify every one of the items on that line. So we've outlooked is that we would have a salable product at the end of this quarter, beginning of next quarter. We're well on track with that. We said we would have the full line of qualified by about the end of second quarter. We feel like we're on track for that. And once all that happens, then that facility in NS will be producing the vast majority of our lineup and we'll be able to get all the freight efficiencies out of the Dallas DC.

正如我在評論中所說，我可以告訴你，第二行做得很好。我們在該過程的調試部分進展順利，我們希望能夠相當快地啟動該隊列。要認識到，雖然該生產線必須生產相當廣泛的 SKU，從我們的烤餐到我們的多蛋白，到我們的小狗，再到我們的 Fresh From The Kitchen 產品，應有盡有。因此，驗證該行中的每一項都需要更長的時間。因此，我們預計我們將在本季度末、下個季度初推出一款可銷售的產品。我們在這方面進展順利。我們說我們將在第二季度末左右擁有完整的合格產品線。我們覺得我們正在朝著這個方向前進。一旦這一切發生，那麼 NS 的那個工廠將生產我們絕大部分的產品線，我們將能夠從達拉斯 DC 獲得所有的貨運效率。

Okay. And then you've highlighted e-commerce as a kind of an innovation, big innovation opportunity. I guess what I'm curious is, what's different about this DTC approach versus what your customers can do today, which is click and collect or procure Freshpet through last mile delivery. How is this different and value-added in incremental relative to the kind of the current go-to-market approach?

好的。然後你強調電子商務是一種創新，巨大的創新機會。我想我很好奇的是，這種 DTC 方法與您的客戶今天可以做的有什麼不同，即點擊並收集或通過最後一英里交付採購 Freshpet。相對於當前的上市方法，這有何不同和增量增值？

Jon. So yes, it's actually a product that will be much more specific or custom to a specific consumer and dogs needs. So it's -- that's -- it will be -- somewhat could find some of the attributes within our line, but this will be very, very specific and kind of almost a customized solution, custom feeding plans for that specific dog and their attributes. So activity level, body type, any kind of ailments, issues they may have, sensitivities they may have, et cetera. So to be very custom and it will be incredibly convenient for consumers also. So we do think it's definitely incremental. And it's seen as incremental by consumers and all the testing that we've done.

喬恩。所以是的，它實際上是一種針對特定消費者和狗的需求更加具體或定制的產品。所以它 - 那 - 它會 - 在某種程度上可以在我們的系列中找到一些屬性，但這將是非常非常具體的，並且幾乎是一種定制的解決方案，針對該特定狗及其屬性的定制餵養計劃。所以活動水平、體型、任何疾病、他們可能有的問題、他們可能有的敏感性等等。所以要非常定制，這對消費者來說也將非常方便。所以我們確實認為它絕對是漸進的。它被消費者和我們所做的所有測試視為增量。

And is this something that the consumer will interact with -- through your website in order to get that customization?

這是消費者將與之互動的東西——通過您的網站以獲得定制嗎？

No. We'll be working with our customers to do to execute this. We think that this is the -- we think it's the best and smartest, cleanest, most cost-effective and environmentally friendly way in order to execute the launch.

不，我們將與我們的客戶合作來執行此操作。我們認為這是——我們認為這是執行發射的最好、最聰明、最乾淨、最具成本效益和最環保的方式。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our question-and-answer session. I'll turn the floor back to Mr. Cyr for any final comments.

女士們，先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。最後請 Cyr 先生髮言。

Great. Thank you, everyone, for your interest. And I would leave you with one thought. According to the Nobel Prize winning author, Orhan Pamuk, dogs do speak, but only to those who know how to listen to which I would add, if there are anything like my dog, they're asking for more Freshpet. Thanks, everyone. We appreciate your interest.

偉大的。謝謝大家的關注。我會給你一個想法。根據諾貝爾獎獲得者奧爾罕·帕慕克 (Orhan Pamuk) 的說法，狗確實會說話，但僅限於那些知道如何傾聽的人，我要補充的是，如果有任何東西像我的狗，他們會要求更多的 Freshpet。感謝大家。感謝您的關注。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。