(FITBO) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Rob, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Fifth Third Bancorp Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call.

早上好。我叫 Rob，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線員。此時，我想歡迎大家參加 Fifth Third Bancorp 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Chris Doll, Head of Investor Relations at Fifth Third Bancorp, you may begin your conference.

Fifth Third Bancorp 投資者關係主管 Chris Doll，您可以開始您的會議了。

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Fifth Third's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. This morning, our President and CEO, Tim Spence; and CFO, Jamie Leonard, will provide an overview of our fourth quarter results and outlook. Our Chief Credit Officer, Richard Stein; and Treasurer, Bryan Preston, have also joined the Q&A portion of the call.

大家，早安。歡迎來到 Fifth Third 的 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。今天上午，我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Tim Spence；首席財務官 Jamie Leonard 將概述我們第四季度的業績和展望。我們的首席信貸官 Richard Stein；和財務主管 Bryan Preston 也加入了電話會議的問答部分。

Please review the cautionary statements on our materials, which can be found in our earnings release and presentation. These materials contain information regarding the use of non-GAAP measures and reconciliations to the GAAP results as well as forward-looking statements about Fifth Third's performance. These statements speak only as of January 19, 2023, and Fifth Third undertakes no obligation to update them. Following prepared remarks by Tim and Jamie, we will open the call up for questions.

請查看我們材料中的警示性聲明，這些聲明可以在我們的收益發布和演示文稿中找到。這些材料包含有關使用非 GAAP 措施和與 GAAP 結果進行調節的信息，以及有關 Fifth Third 業績的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明僅在 2023 年 1 月 19 日生效，Fifth Third 不承擔更新它們的義務。在 Tim 和 Jamie 準備好發言後，我們將開始提問。

With that, let me turn it over to Tim.

有了這個，讓我把它交給蒂姆。

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. To start, I would like to thank our employees for the job they did supporting our customers, communities and shareholders in 2022. You really held true to our core values and our vision to be the one bank people most value and trust.

謝謝，克里斯，大家早上好。首先，我要感謝我們的員工在 2022 年所做的支持我們的客戶、社區和股東的工作。你們真正堅持我們的核心價值觀和我們的願景，即成為人們最看重和信任的銀行。

JUST Capital and CNBC recently released their annual study of America's Most Just Companies, a comprehensive ranking that recognizes companies who do right by all stakeholders as defined by the American public. Fifth Third ranked 23rd out of the roughly 1,000 companies covered in the study and was the highest ranked category for bank. It's a great achievement. Thank you for it.

JUST Capital 和 CNBC 最近發布了他們對美國最公正公司的年度研究，這是一項綜合排名，旨在表彰按照美國公眾定義的所有利益相關者行事正確的公司。 Fifth Third 在該研究涵蓋的大約 1,000 家公司中排名第 23 位，是銀行中排名最高的類別。這是一個偉大的成就。謝謝你。

Earlier today, we reported financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2022. The strength and quality of our franchise are evident in the numbers. We generated record full year revenue of $8.4 billion, up 6% over the prior year. We managed expenses down 1% year-over-year, producing positive operating leverage of 700 basis points and an efficiency ratio of 56%.

今天早些時候，我們公佈了第四季度和 2022 年全年的財務業績。我們特許經營權的實力和質量在數字中顯而易見。我們創造了創紀錄的全年收入 84 億美元，比上年增長 6%。我們管理的費用同比下降了 1%，產生了 700 個基點的積極經營槓桿和 56% 的效率比。

Net charge-offs for the year were below 20 basis points. As a result, we achieved a full year return on tangible common equity ex AOCI of 16.5%, which places us in the top quartile of our peer group.

當年的淨註銷低於 20 個基點。因此，我們實現了 16.5% 的有形普通股（不包括 AOCI）全年回報率，這使我們在同行中名列前四分之一。

Just as importantly, we did what we said we were going to do. We have a culture of accountability at Fifth Third, and it makes me proud that our full year results exceeded the guidance we provided you last January in every major caption, including total revenue, expenses and net charge-offs. As a result, PPNR increased 18% compared to our original guide of 7%.

同樣重要的是，我們做了我們說過要做的事。我們在 Fifth Third 有一種問責文化，令我感到自豪的是，我們的全年業績超過了我們去年 1 月在每個主要標題中為您提供的指導，包括總收入、支出和淨沖銷。因此，PPNR 與我們最初的 7% 指南相比增加了 18%。

We also made important progress on our growth strategies in 2022. We grew consumer households at a peer-leading organic growth rate of around 2.5% led by our Southeast markets at 7% and surpassed last year's record for new quality relationships in our commercial segment. We opened 18 new branches in the Southeast in 2022, bringing our 3-year total to over 70 new branches in those markets.

我們在 2022 年的增長戰略方面也取得了重要進展。我們以 2.5% 左右的同行領先有機增長率增長了消費者家庭，其中東南市場的增長率為 7%，並超過了去年商業領域新質量關係的記錄。 2022 年，我們在東南部開設了 18 家新分行，使我們在這些市場的 3 年總數達到 70 多家新分行。

During the year, we also made meaningful progress in our technology modernization initiatives and enhanced our peer-leading, digitally-enabled treasury management, managed services and our Momentum Banking product offerings. You may have seen that most recently, we extended Momentum's early pay feature to include income tax refunds.

在這一年中，我們還在技術現代化計劃方面取得了有意義的進展，並增強了我們同行領先的數字化財務管理、託管服務和我們的 Momentum Banking 產品。您可能已經看到，最近我們將 Momentum 的提前支付功能擴展到包括所得稅退款。

Our fintech platforms, Dividend Finance and Provide, continue to scale and achieve top national market shares with Dividend ranking third and Provide ranking second in their respective markets. Our fee-generating businesses are better diversified than most peers and continue to be a key focus for investment.

我們的金融科技平台 Dividend Finance 和 Provide 繼續擴大規模並在全國市場份額中名列前茅，其中 Dividend 在各自市場中排名第三，Provide 在各自市場中排名第二。我們的收費業務比大多數同行更多元化，並繼續成為投資的重點。

Strong performance in our capital markets business related to helping client hedging activities, mortgage servicing and treasury management, all helped to offset market headwinds that all banks faced as did continued net AUM inflows in our Wealth Management business. During 2022, we remain focused on delivering stable long-term results instead of chasing short-term earnings.

我們在幫助客戶對沖活動、抵押貸款服務和資金管理方面的資本市場業務表現強勁，所有這些都有助於抵消所有銀行面臨的市場逆風，我們的財富管理業務的資產管理規模持續淨流入也是如此。 2022 年，我們將繼續專注於提供穩定的長期業績，而不是追逐短期收益。

We maintained our discipline in our credit underwriting with continued focus on granularity and diversification. The outcomes of this are evident in our NPA, NPL and early-stage delinquency ratios, all of which have remained well behaved and well below normalized levels.

我們在信用承銷方面保持紀律，繼續關注粒度和多元化。其結果在我們的 NPA、NPL 和早期拖欠率中顯而易見，所有這些都表現良好，遠低於正常水平。

Our balance sheet management approach remains centered on providing strong and stable NII performance across various rate environments. We extended our advantage in our securities yield by waiting to deploy excess liquidity until we were able to earn positive real yields, and we added derivatives to provide hedge protection through 2031. These actions will provide significant long-term benefits in the event of a lower rate environment.

我們的資產負債表管理方法仍然以在各種利率環境中提供強大而穩定的 NII 性能為中心。我們通過等待部署過剩流動性直到我們能夠獲得正的實際收益率來擴大我們在證券收益率方面的優勢，並且我們增加了衍生品以在 2031 年之前提供對沖保護。這些行動將在較低的情況下提供顯著的長期利益率環境。

With respect to capital, given our strong PPNR growth and benign credit losses, we exceeded our target CET1 ratio in the fourth quarter and resumed share repurchases. Our capital priorities for 2023 are to maintain a 9.25% CET1 ratio and support organic balance sheet growth, pay a strong dividend and continue our share repurchase program.

在資本方面，鑑於我們強勁的 PPNR 增長和良性信貸損失，我們在第四季度超過了我們的目標 CET1 比率，並恢復了股票回購。我們 2023 年的資本優先事項是保持 9.25% 的 CET1 比率並支持資產負債表的有機增長、支付高額股息並繼續我們的股票回購計劃。

We expect repurchases to steadily increase each quarter for a total of approximately $1 billion during the year. Jamie will provide you with the detail on our financial outlook for 2023, but it is a strong one that is consistent with our priorities of stability, profitability and organic growth.

我們預計年內每個季度的回購總額將穩步增加，達到約 10 億美元。 Jamie 將為您提供我們 2023 年財務展望的詳細信息，但它是一個強大的展望，符合我們的穩定性、盈利能力和有機增長的優先事項。

We expect to produce another year of strong revenue growth and operating leverage with full year PPNR growth in the mid- to high teens, a return on tangible common equity ex AOCI exceeding 17% and an efficiency ratio below 53%. We will continue to invest in organic growth and efficiency initiatives.

我們預計今年將實現強勁的收入增長和運營槓桿，全年 PPNR 增長在中高水平，除 AOCI 外的有形普通股回報率超過 17%，效率比低於 53%。我們將繼續投資於有機增長和效率舉措。

We'll add another 30 to 35 branches in our Southeast markets, including our first 3 in Charleston, South Carolina and several more in the Greenville, Spartanburg, South Carolina corridor. We'll continue to increase investments in marketing and product innovation to accelerate household growth, and we'll invest in scaling Dividend and Provide.

我們將在我們的東南市場再增加 30 到 35 個分支機構，包括我們在南卡羅來納州查爾斯頓的前 3 個分支機構以及在南卡羅來納州斯巴達堡格林維爾走廊的更多分支機構。我們將繼續增加對營銷和產品創新的投資以加速家庭增長，我們將投資擴大股息和提供。

Lastly, we'll make significant progress on our tech modernization journey and begin to realize savings and improve the client experience by leveraging these investments to drive automation into our most labor-intensive processes. You have my commitment that we will continue to make decisions with the long term in mind to invest where we can strengthen the value and resiliency of our franchise and to hold ourselves accountable for doing what we say we will do.

最後，我們將在我們的技術現代化之旅中取得重大進展，並通過利用這些投資推動自動化進入我們最勞動密集型的流程，開始實現節約並改善客戶體驗。你得到我的承諾，我們將繼續從長遠考慮做出決定，投資於我們可以增強我們特許經營權的價值和彈性的地方，並讓我們自己對我們所說的我們會做的事情負責。

With that, I'll now turn it over to Jamie to provide additional detail on our fourth quarter financial results and our current outlook for 2023.

有了這個，我現在將它交給 Jamie 來提供有關我們第四季度財務業績和我們目前對 2023 年展望的更多詳細信息。

Thank you, Tim, and thank all of you for joining us today. Our quarterly and full year financial performance reflect focused execution and resiliency throughout the bank. We generated strong loan growth in both commercial and consumer categories and generated record revenue.

謝謝你，蒂姆，感謝大家今天加入我們。我們的季度和全年財務業績反映了整個銀行的專注執行和彈性。我們在商業和消費類別中實現了強勁的貸款增長，並創造了創紀錄的收入。

NII was positively impacted by higher market rates as deposit repricing has lagged the repricing of our earning assets combined with the benefits of fixed rate asset generation at higher rates. Fee income has remained resilient despite the market-related headwinds, and expenses were well controlled while we continue to reinvest in our businesses.

NII 受到較高市場利率的積極影響，因為存款重新定價滯後於我們的收益資產的重新定價以及以較高利率產生固定利率資產的好處。儘管存在與市場相關的逆風，但費用收入仍然保持彈性，並且在我們繼續對我們的業務進行再投資的同時，支出得到了很好的控制。

We achieved a full year adjusted efficiency ratio of 56%, which improved throughout the year with the fourth quarter adjusted efficiency ratio below 52%. Our fourth quarter PPNR grew 12% compared to last quarter and 40% compared to last year.

我們實現了 56% 的全年調整後效率比，全年有所改善，第四季度調整後的效率比低於 52%。我們第四季度的 PPNR 與上一季度相比增長了 12%，與去年相比增長了 40%。

Net interest income of approximately $1.6 billion was a record for the bank and increased 5% sequentially and 32% year-over-year. Our NIM expanded 13 basis points for the quarter, while interest-bearing core deposit costs increased 64 basis points to 105 basis points, reflecting a cycle-to-date interest-bearing core deposit beta of 24% in the fourth quarter.

淨利息收入約為 16 億美元，創下銀行歷史新高，環比增長 5%，同比增長 32%。本季度我們的淨息差擴大了 13 個基點，而帶息核心存款成本增加了 64 個基點至 105 個基點，反映出第四季度週期至今的帶息核心存款貝塔值為 24%。

Total noninterest income increased 9% sequentially driven by our TRA revenue and commercial banking fees. That growth in commercial banking fee income was primarily driven by higher M&A advisory revenue and client financial risk management revenue. And it was partially offset by softer results in mortgage banking origination fees.

受 TRA 收入和商業銀行手續費的推動，非利息收入總額環比增長 9%。商業銀行手續費收入的增長主要受併購諮詢收入和客戶金融風險管理收入增加的推動。它部分被抵押銀行發起費的疲軟結果所抵消。

Noninterest expense increased just 1% compared to the year-ago quarter. This expense growth was driven by our acquisition of Dividend Finance during the year combined with continued investments in Provide, compensation associated with our minimum wage hike as well as higher technology and communications expense, reflecting our focus on platform modernization initiatives. Excluding the impacts of Dividend and Provide, total expenses would have been down 1% year-over-year.

與去年同期相比，非利息支出僅增長 1%。這一費用增長是由於我們在年內收購了股息融資，加上對 Provide 的持續投資、與最低工資上漲相關的補償以及更高的技術和通信費用，反映了我們對平台現代化計劃的關注。排除股息和提供的影響，總費用同比下降 1%。

Moving to the balance sheet. Total average portfolio loans and leases increased 1% sequentially. Average total commercial portfolio loans and leases increased 1% compared to the prior quarter, reflecting an increase in C&I balances. Growth was led by our corporate bank and robust in almost all of our industry verticals.

轉到資產負債表。平均投資組合貸款和租賃總額環比增長 1%。與上一季度相比，平均商業組合貸款和租賃總額增加 1%，反映出 C&I 餘額的增加。增長由我們的企業銀行引領，並且幾乎在我們所有的垂直行業都表現強勁。

Among our verticals, production was strongest in energy, including renewables, which increased over 50% year-over-year. Health care growth was led by Provide with Provide balances up 150% year-over-year. The period-end commercial revolver utilization rate remained stable compared to last quarter at 37%.

在我們的垂直行業中，能源生產最為強勁，包括可再生能源，同比增長超過 50%。醫療保健增長由 Provide 帶動，Provide 餘額同比增長 150%。與上一季度相比，期末商業左輪手槍使用率保持穩定，為 37%。

Average total consumer portfolio loans and leases increased 1% compared to the prior quarter led by Dividend Finance as well as growth in home equity. This was partially offset by a decline in indirect secured consumer loans.

與上一季度相比，在股息融資以及房屋淨值增長的帶動下，平均消費者組合貸款和租賃總額增長了 1%。這部分被間接擔保消費貸款的下降所抵消。

Average total deposits increased 1% compared to the prior quarter as an increase in commercial deposits was partially offset by a decline in consumer deposits. Period-end deposits increased 1% compared to the prior quarter. After the deliberate runoff of surge deposits in the middle of the year, we have achieved solid deposit outcomes throughout the second half of 2022, reflecting our strong core deposit franchise.

與上一季度相比，平均總存款增長了 1%，這是因為商業存款的增長部分被消費者存款的下降所抵消。期末存款較上一季度增加 1%。在年中蓄意減少激增存款後，我們在 2022 年下半年取得了穩健的存款成果，反映了我們強大的核心存款業務。

Moving to credit. As Tim mentioned, credit trends remain healthy, and our key credit metrics remained well below normalized levels. The NPA ratio of 44 basis points was down 2 basis points sequentially, and our commercial NPA ratio has now declined for 9 consecutive quarters. The net charge-off ratio increased just 1 basis point sequentially to 22 basis points within our guidance range. The ratio of early-stage loan delinquencies 30 to 89 days past due also increased only 2 basis points sequentially and remains below 2019 levels.

轉向信貸。正如 Tim 提到的，信用趨勢保持健康，我們的關鍵信用指標仍遠低於正常水平。 NPA 比率為 44 個基點，環比下降 2 個基點，我們的商業 NPA 比率現已連續 9 個季度下降。在我們的指導範圍內，淨註銷率僅連續增加 1 個基點至 22 個基點。逾期 30 至 89 天的早期貸款拖欠率也僅環比上升 2 個基點，仍低於 2019 年的水平。

From a balance sheet management perspective, we have continually improved the granularity and diversification of our loan portfolios through a focus on high-quality relationships. In consumer, we have focused on lending to homeowners, which are 85% of our consumer portfolio. We also have maintained the lowest overall portfolio concentration in non-prime consumer borrowers among our peers.

從資產負債表管理的角度來看，我們通過關注高質量的關係不斷提高貸款組合的粒度和多樣化。在消費領域，我們專注於向房主提供貸款，占我們消費組合的 85%。在同行中，我們在非主要消費者藉款人中的總體投資組合集中度也保持在最低水平。

In commercial, we have maintained the lowest overall portfolio concentration in CRE. Across all commercial portfolios, we continue to closely monitor exposures where inflation and higher rates may cause stress and continue to closely watch the leveraged loan portfolio and office CRE.

在商業領域，我們在 CRE 中保持了最低的整體投資組合集中度。在所有商業投資組合中，我們繼續密切監控通貨膨脹和更高利率可能造成壓力的風險，並繼續密切關注槓桿貸款組合和辦公室 CRE。

We have focused on positioning our balance sheet to deliver strong, stable NII through the cycle. Our strong deposit franchise, our investment portfolio positioning and our cash flow hedge portfolios will provide protection against lower rates well beyond just the next few years as well as the addition of the fixed rate lending capabilities from both Dividend and Provide should continue to support our strong through-the-cycle outcomes.

我們專注於定位我們的資產負債表，以在整個週期內提供強大、穩定的 NII。我們強大的存款業務、我們的投資組合定位和我們的現金流量對沖組合將在未來幾年內提供針對較低利率的保護，以及來自股息和提供的固定利率貸款能力的增加應該繼續支持我們強大的整個週期的結果。

Moving to the ACL. Our ACL build this quarter was $112 million primarily reflecting loan growth. Dividend Finance loans contributed $96 million to the ACL build. As you know, we incorporate Moody's macroeconomic scenarios when evaluating our allowance. The base economic scenario from Moody's assumes the unemployment rate reaches 4.2% while the downside scenario underlying our allowance coverage incorporates a peak unemployment rate of 7.8%.

移動到 ACL。我們本季度的 ACL 建設為 1.12 億美元，主要反映了貸款增長。股息融資貸款為 ACL 建設貢獻了 9600 萬美元。如您所知，我們在評估津貼時納入了穆迪的宏觀經濟情景。穆迪的基本經濟情景假設失業率達到 4.2%，而我們的津貼覆蓋率所依據的下行情景包括 7.8% 的失業率峰值。

Given our expected period-end loan growth, including continued strong production from Dividend Finance, we currently expect a first quarter build to the ACL of approximately $100 million, assuming no changes in the underlying economic scenarios.

鑑於我們預期的期末貸款增長，包括股息融資持續強勁的生產，我們目前預計第一季度 ACL 將增加約 1 億美元，假設基本經濟情景沒有變化。

Moving to capital. Our CET1 grew from 9.1% to 9.3% during the quarter. The increase in capital reflects our strong earnings generation, which was partially offset by the impact of a $100 million share repurchase completed in December.

搬到首都。我們的 CET1 在本季度從 9.1% 增長到 9.3%。資本的增加反映了我們強勁的盈利能力，這部分被 12 月份完成的 1 億美元股票回購的影響所抵消。

Moving to our current outlook. We expect full year average total loan growth between 3% and 4% compared to 2022. We expect most of the growth to come from the commercial loan portfolio, which is expected to increase in the mid-single digits in 2023.

轉向我們目前的展望。與 2022 年相比，我們預計全年平均總貸款增長率在 3% 至 4% 之間。我們預計大部分增長將來自商業貸款組合，預計到 2023 年將以中個位數增長。

We expect line utilization to be stable in the first half of 2023 but then decline slightly to 36% as capital markets conditions improve a bit in the second half of the year. We expect total consumer loans to increase modestly as an expected increase from Dividend Finance and modest growth from home equity and card will be mostly offset by decline in auto and mortgage, reflecting the environment.

我們預計線路利用率將在 2023 年上半年保持穩定，但隨後隨著資本市場狀況在下半年略有改善而小幅下降至 36%。我們預計消費貸款總額將適度增長，因為股息融資的預期增長以及房屋淨值和信用卡的適度增長將大部分被汽車和抵押貸款的下降所抵消，這反映了環境。

For the first quarter of 2023, we expect average total loan balances to be stable sequentially. We expect commercial loans to increase 1%, reflecting strong pipelines in middle market and corporate banking and assuming commercial revolver utilization rates remain generally stable. We expect consumer balances to be stable to down 1%, reflecting lower auto and residential mortgage balances, partially offset by dividend loan originations of $1 billion or so in the first quarter.

對於 2023 年第一季度，我們預計平均總貸款餘額將連續穩定。我們預計商業貸款將增長 1%，反映出中間市場和企業銀行業務的強大渠道，並假設商業循環利用率總體保持穩定。我們預計消費者余額將穩定下降 1%，反映出較低的汽車和住宅抵押貸款餘額，部分被第一季度 10 億美元左右的股息貸款抵消。

From a funding perspective, we expect average core deposits to be stable to down 8% sequentially, reflecting seasonal factors before resuming modest growth in the subsequent quarters of 2023. We expect continued migration from DDA into interest-bearing products throughout 2023 with the mix of demand deposits to total core deposits ending the year in the low 30s.

從融資角度來看，我們預計平均核心存款將穩定下降 8%，反映季節性因素，然後在 2023 年隨後幾個季度恢復適度增長。我們預計整個 2023 年將繼續從 DDA 轉移到生息產品，包括年末活期存款佔核心存款總額的比重在 30 多歲左右。

Shifting to the income statement. Given our loan outlook and the benefits of our balance sheet management, we expect full year NII to increase 13% to 14%. Our forecast assumes our securities portfolio remains relatively stable from the second half of 2022 levels and reflects the forward curve as of early January with Fed funds increasing to 5% in the first quarter and the first 25 basis point rate cut occurring in the fourth quarter of 2023.

轉移到損益表。鑑於我們的貸款前景和資產負債表管理的好處，我們預計全年 NII 將增長 13% 至 14%。我們的預測假設我們的證券投資組合從 2022 年下半年的水平保持相對穩定，並反映了截至 1 月初的遠期曲線，其中聯邦基金在第一季度增加到 5%，並且在 2022 年第四季度首次降息 25 個基點2023.

Our current outlook assumes total interest-bearing deposit costs, which were 112 basis points in the fourth quarter of 2022, to increase in the first half of 2023 before settling in around 2% or so in the second half of 2023. Our outlook contemplates an environment of continued deposit competition which would result in a cumulative deposit beta by the end of 2023 of around 42%, given the 2 additional rate hikes in our forecast over our October guidance.

我們當前的展望假設計息存款總成本（2022 年第四季度為 112 個基點）將在 2023 年上半年增加，然後在 2023 年下半年穩定在 2% 左右。我們的展望考慮了考慮到我們在 10 月指引中預測的 2 次額外加息，存款競爭持續的環境將導致到 2023 年底的累計存款貝塔係數約為 42%。

The future impacts of deposit-repricing lags combined with the dynamics of our loan portfolio should result in our full year 2023 net interest margin increasing 5 basis points or so relative to the fourth quarter of 2022 NIM. We expect NII in the first quarter to be down 1% to 2% sequentially, reflecting the impact of a lower day count in the quarter combined with stable loan balances.

存款重新定價滯後的未來影響加上我們貸款組合的動態，應該會導致我們 2023 年全年的淨息差相對於 2022 年第四季度 NIM 增加 5 個基點左右。我們預計第一季度的 NII 將環比下降 1% 至 2%，反映出本季度天數減少以及貸款餘額穩定的影響。

We expect adjusted noninterest income to be relatively stable in 2023, reflecting continued success taking market share due to our investments in talent and capabilities, resulting in stronger gross treasury management revenue, capital markets fees, wealth and asset management revenue and mortgage servicing to be offset by the market headwinds impacting top-line mortgage revenue and higher earnings credit rates on treasury management as well as subdued leasing remarketing revenue.

我們預計調整後的非利息收入在 2023 年將相對穩定，這反映出由於我們對人才和能力的投資而繼續成功奪取市場份額，從而抵消了國庫管理總收入、資本市場費用、財富和資產管理收入以及抵押貸款服務的強勁增長受市場逆風影響頂線抵押貸款收入和更高的財務管理收益信貸利率以及疲軟的租賃再營銷收入。

If capital markets conditions do not improve, we would expect to generate improved NII and lowered expenses in the second half of 2023. We expect our fourth quarter TRA revenue to decline from $46 million in 2022 to $22 million in 2023.

如果資本市場狀況沒有改善，我們預計 2023 年下半年 NII 會有所改善並降低支出。我們預計第四季度 TRA 收入將從 2022 年的 4600 萬美元下降到 2023 年的 2200 萬美元。

Our guidance also assumes a minimal amount of private equity income in 2023 compared to around $70 million in the prior year. We expect first quarter adjusted noninterest income to be down 6% to 7% compared to the fourth quarter excluding the impacts of the TRA, largely reflecting seasonal factors.

我們的指引還假設 2023 年的私募股權收入最少，而上一年約為 7000 萬美元。我們預計第一季度調整後的非利息收入將比第四季度下降 6% 至 7%，不包括 TRA 的影響，這主要反映了季節性因素。

Additionally, we expect to continue generating strong financial risk management revenue, which we expect will be offset by a slowdown in M&A advisory revenue and the impact of higher earnings credits and softer top-line mortgage banking revenue, given the rate environment. We expect full year adjusted noninterest expense to be up 4% to 5% compared to 2022.

此外，鑑於利率環境，我們預計將繼續產生強勁的金融風險管理收入，我們預計這將被併購諮詢收入放緩以及更高的收益信貸和疲軟的頂級抵押貸款銀行收入的影響所抵消。我們預計與 2022 年相比，全年調整後的非利息支出將增長 4% 至 5%。

Our expense outlook includes a 1 point headwind each from the FDIC insurance assessment rate change that went into effect on January 1; the mark-to-market impact on nonqualified deferred compensation plans, which was a reduction in 2022 expenses; and the full year expense impact of Dividend Finance. We also continue to invest in our digital transformation, which should result in technology expense growth of around 10%, consistent with the past several years.

我們的費用前景包括 1 月 1 日生效的 FDIC 保險評估利率變化帶來的 1 個百分點的逆風；按市值計價對不合格遞延補償計劃的影響，即 2022 年支出減少；以及股息融資的全年費用影響。我們還繼續投資於我們的數字化轉型，這將導致技術費用增長約 10%，與過去幾年一致。

We also expect marketing expenses to increase in the mid-single digits area. Our outlook assumes we close 25 branches in the first half of 2023 that will deliver in-year expense savings and also add 30 to 35 new branches in our high-growth markets, which will result in high single-digit growth of our Southeast branch network.

我們還預計營銷費用將在中個位數區域增加。我們的展望假設我們在 2023 年上半年關閉 25 家分行，這將節省年內費用，並在我們的高增長市場中增加 30 至 35 家新分行，這將導致我們東南分行網絡實現高個位數增長.

We expect first quarter total adjusted noninterest expenses to be up 6% to 7% compared to the fourth quarter. As is always the case for us, our first quarter expenses are impacted by seasonal expenses associated with the timing of compensation awards and payroll taxes. Excluding these seasonal items, expenses will be down approximately 2% in the first quarter. In total, our guide implies full year adjusted revenue growth of 9% to 10%, resulting in PPNR growth in the 15% to 17% range. This would result in a sub-53% efficiency ratio for the full year, a 3-point improvement from 2022.

我們預計第一季度調整後的非利息支出總額將比第四季度增長 6% 至 7%。與我們的情況一樣，我們第一季度的支出受到與薪酬獎勵和工資稅時間相關的季節性支出的影響。不包括這些季節性項目，第一季度的支出將下降約 2%。總體而言，我們的指南暗示全年調整後收入增長 9% 至 10%，導致 PPNR 增長 15% 至 17%。這將導致全年的效率比低於 53%，比 2022 年提高 3 個百分點。

We expect 2023 net charge-offs to be in the 25 to 35 basis point range with first quarter net charge-offs in the 25 to 30 basis point range.

我們預計 2023 年淨註銷將在 25 至 35 個基點範圍內，第一季度淨註銷將在 25 至 30 個基點範圍內。

In summary, with our strong PPNR growth engine, disciplined credit risk management and commitment to delivering strong performance through the cycle, we believe we are well positioned to continue to generate long-term sustainable value for customers, communities, employees and shareholders.

總而言之，憑藉我們強大的 PPNR 增長引擎、嚴格的信用風險管理以及在整個週期內提供強勁業績的承諾，我們相信我們有能力繼續為客戶、社區、員工和股東創造長期可持續的價值。

With that, let me turn it over to Chris to open the call up for Q&A.

有了這個，讓我把它交給克里斯打開問答電話。

Thanks, Jamie. Before we start Q&A, given the time we have this morning, we ask that you limit yourself to one question and a follow-up and then return to the queue if you have additional questions.

謝謝，傑米。在我們開始問答之前，考慮到今天上午的時間，我們要求您將自己限制在一個問題和一個後續問題上，如果您還有其他問題，請返回隊列。

Operator, please open the call up for Q&A.

接線員，請打開電話進行問答。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Your first question comes from the line of Gerard Cassidy from RBC.

你的第一個問題來自 RBC 的 Gerard Cassidy。

Can you share with us, Tim, when you talk to your business customers, it seems like there's a real disconnect between everybody's outlook for loan loss reserve billing, we understand, of course, that CECL is going to be proactive life of loan losses. And you and your peers are building up the reserves, but then you look at the spreads in the high-yield market, they're coming in.

蒂姆，你能否與我們分享一下，當你與你的企業客戶交談時，似乎每個人對貸款損失準備金計費的前景之間存在真正的脫節，我們當然理解 CECL 將成為貸款損失的積極生活。你和你的同行正在增加儲備，但隨後你看看高收益市場的利差，它們正在湧入。

One of your competitors yesterday pointed out that the commercial loan spreads haven't widened out. Where is the disconnect or are we just going to fall off a cliff possibly in the second half of the year?

你們的一位競爭對手昨天指出，商業貸款利差並未擴大。脫節在哪裡，或者我們是否會在今年下半年從懸崖上掉下來？

But can you share with us what are your commercial customers seeing in their day-to-day business? And are they seeing the weakness that everybody is projecting that will happen later this year?

但是您能否與我們分享一下您的商業客戶在日常業務中看到了什麼？他們是否看到了每個人都預測今年晚些時候會出現的弱點？

Yes. Sure, Gerard, and thanks for the question. I don't think we're going to fall off a cliff in the second half of the year. That's certainly not consistent with what I hear.

是的。當然，杰拉德，謝謝你提出這個問題。我不認為我們會在今年下半年掉下懸崖。這當然與我聽到的不一致。

I was out when we looked at the calendar the other day, I think 8 -- get into 8 of our 15 markets in the fourth quarter of this past year. I think I probably saw 40 or 50 clients while I was out there. I mean, here's what I hear. Like if you look at the manufacturing clients as an example, they're all feeling much more optimistic about moderation as it relates to raw materials.

前幾天我們看日曆時我出去了，我想 8 - 在去年第四季度進入我們 15 個市場中的 8 個。我想我在那裡時可能會看到 40 或 50 個客戶。我的意思是，這就是我聽到的。就像您以製造業客戶為例，他們都對與原材料相關的節制感到更加樂觀。

And I think by and large, they solved the supply chain issues that they were facing, either through inventory builds or through restructuring the supply chain or because the overseas suppliers that they were relying on have come back online or there isn't an issue in the ports or otherwise. I think the issues they're running into are twofold. One, labor continues to be a challenge, and it's labor cost, but it's also just labor availability.

而且我認為總的來說，他們解決了他們面臨的供應鏈問題，要么通過庫存構建，要么通過重組供應鏈，要么因為他們所依賴的海外供應商已經恢復在線，或者沒有問題端口或其他。我認為他們遇到的問題是雙重的。第一，勞動力仍然是一個挑戰，這是勞動力成本，但也只是勞動力可用性。

Two, because they solved their supply chain challenges through building inventory, when you think about lower inventory turns, you add in rising interest rates, now debt service costs to revenue or a higher proportion. And so while they got the costs associated with raw materials through this last year in price increases, they're all looking to the next 18 to 24 months to try to figure out how they pass on just the sort of continued slow grind on labor and debt service costs.

第二，因為他們通過建立庫存解決了他們的供應鏈挑戰，當你考慮降低庫存周轉率時，你會增加利率上升，現在償債成本佔收入或更高的比例。因此，雖然他們通過去年的價格上漲獲得了與原材料相關的成本，但他們都在展望未來 18 到 24 個月，試圖弄清楚他們如何轉嫁這種持續緩慢的勞動力和償債成本。

The services clients are having no problem pushing through costs, which I think is like evident in the inflation data and personally to anybody that took a vacation over the holidays this year. And they continue to be optimistic because demand has remained strong.

服務客戶在推銷成本方面沒有問題，我認為這在通貨膨脹數據中很明顯，而且對今年假期休假的任何人來說都是如此。他們繼續保持樂觀，因為需求依然強勁。

I think what I hear more than anything else is that we're going to have a little bit of a slow grind down here in terms of growth. And if anything, the thing I'm more worried about is not do we end up with plus 0.5% GDP or minus 0.5% GDP, but rather that the market may be overly optimistic about how quickly the Fed is going to be able to bring rates down.

我認為我聽到的最多的是我們將在增長方面進行一些緩慢的研究。而且，如果有的話，我更擔心的不是我們最終會實現 GDP 增長 0.5% 還是負 0.5%，而是市場可能對美聯儲能夠以多快的速度加息過於樂觀。降息。

And that the byproduct of that is from an operating standpoint, you have to be thinking a lot more about how you position the balance sheet for the next 3 to 5 years and for more tepid growth and higher rates than worrying about the next, call it, 12 months in terms of the outlook.

從運營的角度來看，這樣做的副產品是，你必須更多地考慮如何定位未來 3 到 5 年的資產負債表，以及更溫和的增長和更高的利率，而不是擔心下一個，稱之為, 12 個月的前景。

Very good. Very helpful. Jamie, sort of coming back to you on one of your favorite topics, AOCI. Can you share with us 2 things? One, what does the accretion look like coming into '23 for the AOCI number?

非常好。很有幫助。傑米，有點想回到你最喜歡的話題之一，AOCI。你能和我們分享兩件事嗎？第一，AOCI 數字進入 23 年時的增長情況如何？

And second, in your securities portfolio, I think you showed in your release that the taxable securities are yielding 3% today. What are you guys seeing in new yields as you put money to work?

其次，在你的證券投資組合中，我認為你在新聞稿中表明，今天應稅證券的收益率為 3%。當你們把錢投入工作時，你們在新的收益率中看到了什麼？

Yes. Thanks, Gerard. And I knew when we put you in the queue, I was going to get an AOCI question. So thanks for living up to that.

是的。謝謝，杰拉德。我知道當我們讓你排隊時，我會收到一個 AOCI 問題。所以感謝你做到這一點。

In terms of the AOCI, if you look at year-end levels with the 10-year at roughly 387, the AOCI earns back with our duration at 5.4. It earns back pretty evenly across that time period, so $1 billion or so of TCE earn-back per year.

就 AOCI 而言，如果您查看年末水平，10 年期約為 387，AOCI 在我們的久期為 5.4 時獲得回報。它在這段時間內的收益相當均勻，因此每年有 10 億美元左右的 TCE 收益。

Obviously, no capital impact given that we're a Category 4. If you fast forward to today and where the 10-year is, certainly, we've had a significant improvement in the AOCI just in the first 19 days of January. So that would be helpful to the TCE as well.

顯然，鑑於我們是第 4 類，沒有資本影響。如果你快進到今天和 10 年所在的地方，當然，我們在 1 月的前 19 天的 AOCI 有了顯著改善。所以這對 TCE 也有幫助。

In terms of the securities yields, obviously, we're very pleased with how the portfolio is positioned at a 3% yield. I would expect that what's going to happen with the investment portfolio is that it will continue to grind higher each quarter and finish the year at a 310 level. So the average for the year is probably in the 305 range because as we're reinvesting cash flows or seeing opportunities on new investments, we're looking at entry points in that 475 area right now.

就證券收益率而言，顯然，我們對投資組合的收益率為 3% 感到非常滿意。我預計投資組合將在每個季度繼續上漲，並在年底達到 310 的水平。因此，今年的平均值可能在 305 範圍內，因為當我們對現金流進行再投資或看到新投資的機會時，我們現在正在尋找 475 區域的切入點。

And your next question comes from the line of Mike Mayo from Wells Fargo.

你的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Mike Mayo。

I know you guys -- I think it was your phrase that how the maturity securities were like being in the rose motel, if I got that right. And you have -- what it's like hardly any securities in held to maturity, which gives you flexibility.

我認識你們——如果我沒記錯的話，我想你們的說法是，到期證券就像在玫瑰汽車旅館裡一樣。而且你有——幾乎沒有任何證券持有至到期，這給了你靈活性。

And I'm not sure how much that matters. And maybe just gives you more flexibility as you look ahead. But you're also one of the few banks that are -- if you take the midpoint of your guidance, you're guiding for higher NII off fourth quarter levels. And I'm -- is there a connection between how you're managing your securities book and that guidance? Or are they separate? But really, the question is NII guide as it relates to your securities.

我不確定這有多重要。也許只是在你展望未來時給你更多的靈活性。但你也是為數不多的幾家銀行之一——如果你採用指導的中點，那麼你正在指導第四季度水平更高的 NII。我是——您管理證券賬簿的方式與該指南之間是否存在聯繫？或者它們是分開的？但實際上，問題是 NII 指南，因為它與您的證券有關。

Yes, Mike, it's Jamie. Yes, I did reference the rose motel a few quarters back. And I guess, today's theme is the held-to-maturity is more like a high to maturity. And it certainly helps having that flexibility to reposition as environments change, but really there's no one thing that's driving the strong NII outlook and NIM expansion for us.

是的，邁克，我是傑米。是的，我確實提到了幾個季度前的玫瑰汽車旅館。我想，今天的主題是持有至到期更像是高到期。隨著環境的變化，它當然有助於靈活地重新定位，但實際上沒有任何一件事可以為我們推動強大的 NII 前景和 NIM 擴張。

It really is the result of years of hard work of deliberately positioning the balance sheet for really what is a range of outcomes that still could play out given all of the uncertainty, and it really is a total company effort. And that comes from the household growth, new commercial relationships, product innovation, the fintech acquisitions and ultimately, sales execution, both on loan pricing and deposit generation.

這確實是多年努力工作的結果，我們有意將資產負債表定位在考慮到所有不確定性的情況下仍然可以發揮作用的一系列結果，這確實是公司的全部努力。這來自家庭增長、新的商業關係、產品創新、金融科技收購以及最終的銷售執行，包括貸款定價和存款生成。

So that's really what is giving us the ability to grow NII during the course of 2023 as well as expanding NIM at the same time. And I think it's one of those capabilities of Fifth Third that we've proven over the past decade that's perhaps underappreciated by the market.

所以這才是真正讓我們有能力在 2023 年期間發展 NII 以及同時擴大 NIM 的原因。我認為這是我們在過去十年中證明的 Fifth Third 的能力之一，但市場可能未充分認識到這一點。

And like you said, the securities are certainly going to be a higher level of gross income over the course of 2023 in part because we were patient in deploying the excess cash that we had and not buying securities when the 10-year was below 2% or even below 1% like some of the other banks. I think one of the bigger differentiators for us will be the fixed rate loan businesses that we have and our ability to emphasize or deemphasize those businesses.

就像你說的那樣，在 2023 年期間，證券的總收入肯定會更高，部分原因是我們耐心地使用我們擁有的多餘現金，而不是在 10 年期收益率低於 2% 時購買證券甚至像其他一些銀行一樣低於 1%。我認為對我們來說最大的差異化因素之一將是我們擁有的固定利率貸款業務以及我們強調或淡化這些業務的能力。

And right now, we have a little bit of an emphasis on auto being able to generate roughly $6 billion this year and then dividend, where the gross income on dividend will exceed over $200 million of growth in 2023 relative to 2022. And so really, when you package it all together with an investment portfolio that's in a net discount position of about $1 billion, a dividend portfolio that by the end of 2023, will have unamortized fees that will roll through NII of about $1 billion.

現在，我們有點強調汽車今年能夠產生大約 60 億美元的收入，然後是股息，與 2022 年相比，2023 年的股息總收入將超過 2 億美元的增長。所以真的，當你將其與淨貼現頭寸約為 10 億美元的投資組合打包在一起時，到 2023 年底，股息投資組合將產生約 10 億美元的未攤銷費用，這些費用將通過 NII 滾動。

We've got a lot of downside protection and a core franchise that with its ability to grow loans and deposits really is helpful. And within all of this guide, we do not assume spread widening. So to the extent that were to happen as Tim mentioned, that would only be upside to our guide.

我們有很多下行保護和核心特許經營權，它能夠增加貸款和存款，這確實很有幫助。在本指南的所有內容中，我們不假設利差擴大。因此，就 Tim 提到的情況而言，這只會對我們的指南有利。

And then, Tim, just a broader level, I mean, do you see a recession based on your bottom-up analysis, based on all the markets you're visiting, based on the clients you're talking to? I mean, we hear so much recession talk, and then we hear about your loan growth and everything else. What do you just think from a high-level standpoint? And then what are your assumptions for reserves in terms of unemployment?

然後，蒂姆，只是一個更廣泛的層面，我的意思是，你是否認為經濟衰退是基於你自下而上的分析，基於你正在訪問的所有市場，基於你正在與之交談的客戶？我的意思是，我們聽到了很多關於經濟衰退的話題，然後我們聽到了你的貸款增長和其他一切。你剛才從高層怎麼看？那麼你對失業率儲備的假設是什麼？

Yes. I'll let Jamie fill the question on the specific assumptions on reserves, Mike. But I probably lost my crystal ball when I moved offices earlier this past year. So I have to rely on what I hear from clients or what we get from our friends at Moody's and otherwise.

是的。邁克，我會讓傑米回答有關儲備金具體假設的問題。但去年早些時候我搬辦公室時，我可能失去了我的水晶球。所以我必須依賴我從客戶那裡聽到的信息，或者我們從穆迪和其他地方的朋友那裡得到的信息。

If you ask me today, I would tell you we're going to have a shallow recession, I think -- but I don't know that there's a big difference between 0.5% of growth and 0.5% of GDP decline, in particular, given the amount of derisking that's been done inside the banking sector and certainly inside Fifth Third over the course of the past decade.

如果你今天問我，我會告訴你我們將有一個輕微的衰退，我認為——但我不知道 0.5% 的增長和 0.5% 的 GDP 下降之間有很大的區別，特別是，考慮到在過去十年中，銀行業內部以及 Fifth Third 內部已經進行了大量的去風險化工作。

I think the more interesting dynamic really is going to be this question about the duration of a recession if we see it and what happens if we don't get a typical recovery, right? If you have several years of below-trend growth and inflation that sits above the historic -- certainly above the historic 2% target. But Jamie, you want to fill the question on the inputs on the reserves?

我認為更有趣的動態真的是這個關於衰退持續時間的問題，如果我們看到它，以及如果我們沒有得到典型的複蘇會發生什麼，對吧？如果你有幾年低於趨勢的增長和高於歷史水平的通脹 - 當然高於歷史 2% 的目標。但是傑米，你想填寫關於儲備投入的問題嗎？

Yes, Mike, as you know, we used the Moody's scenarios of their baseline scenario, and that drives 80% weighting. And we maintained our weightings at 80%, 10%, 10% with the upside in the S3 or either adverse scenario or 10% probability scenario.

是的，邁克，正如你所知，我們使用了穆迪的基準情景情景，這推動了 80% 的權重。我們將權重維持在 80%、10%、10%，並在 S3 或不利情景或 10% 概率情景中上行。

So in the adverse, the unemployment gets almost up to 8%, and the baseline unemployment ratchets up to 4.2%. And then we blend those scenarios together to drive the ACL. So I think it meshes well with what Tim's comments were of a shallow or mild downturn in the economy and then a recovery.

因此，不利的是，失業率幾乎上升到 8%，而基準失業率上升到 4.2%。然後我們將這些場景混合在一起以驅動 ACL。因此，我認為這與蒂姆關於經濟輕微或溫和衰退然後復甦的評論非常吻合。

So that's 20% for the 8% unemployment and 80% for the 4.2% unemployment?

那麼對於 8% 的失業率是 20%，對於 4.2% 的失業率是 80%？

10% on the upside, which is the upside scenario is that the Fed delivers a soft landing. So unemployment stays in the high 3s. So 10% in the high 3s, the baseline at 4.2% peak and then a downside at 10% at a 7.8% unemployment.

10% 的上行空間，即美聯儲實現軟著陸的上行情景。所以失業率保持在 3 的高位。所以 10% 在高 3s，基線在 4.2% 峰值，然後在 7.8% 的失業率下下降到 10%。

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Siefers from Piper Sandler.

您的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Scott Siefers。

Jamie, I guess it doesn't -- based on what you said, it doesn't feel like you would get there anytime soon. But in the past, you talked about sort of the 330 margin floor in the event of low rates. Just curious, given all the sort of the ebbs and flows we've had in expectations and just the own -- pardon me, the moves you've made with your own balance sheet, how are you thinking about that lower bound kind of as we go forward in that 330 level?

傑米，我想不會——根據你所說的，感覺你不會很快到達那裡。但在過去，你談到了在低利率情況下的 330 保證金底限。只是好奇，考慮到我們在預期中遇到的各種潮起潮落以及自己的 - 對不起，你對自己的資產負債表採取的行動，你如何看待這種下限我們在那個330級別前進？

Yes. We feel very good about the ability to have a floor on the NIM at that 330 level and a down 200 scenario should that play out, given all the work we've done on the investment portfolio with the bullet locked-out cash flows along with being in a fairly sizable net discount position and the duration that we have combined with the fixed rate loan origination platforms with auto, Dividend and Provide, those should all provide yields.

是的。考慮到我們在投資組合上所做的所有工作以及子彈鎖定的現金流以及處於相當可觀的淨貼現頭寸，以及我們與固定利率貸款發起平台與汽車、股息和提供相結合的持續時間，這些都應該提供收益。

And then as we've talked in the past, we've layered in $15 billion of received fixed swaps that will also provide additional protection from 2025 through 2032. And that may be one other differentiator for us relative to peers is that we've been focused more on protecting that downside over a longer period of time, and therefore, the duration of our swap book as well as our investment portfolio maybe a little better positioned should that downturn occur at the end of the decade.

然後正如我們過去所說的那樣，我們已經將 150 億美元的固定掉期資產分層，這也將在 2025 年到 2032 年期間提供額外的保護。這可能是我們相對於同行的另一個區別是我們已經我們更專注於在更長時間內保護這種下行，因此，如果經濟衰退發生在本世紀末，我們的掉期賬簿的期限以及我們的投資組合可能會處於更好的位置。

Perfect. And then switching gears just a bit. Maybe some thoughts on kind of the trajectory of fees as we go through the year. You guys always have the seasonality that helps fourth quarter, hurts the first. But it will be, I think, a pretty substantial ramp up starting in the 2Q.

完美的。然後稍微換檔。也許我們對這一年的費用軌蹟有一些想法。你們總是有幫助第四季度的季節性，傷害第一季度。但我認為，從第二季度開始，這將是一個相當可觀的增長。

Just curious, I think you alluded to capital markets kind of normalizing or recovering in the second half of the year. Just maybe your thoughts on main drivers as the year plays out.

只是好奇，我想你提到資本市場在今年下半年會正常化或複蘇。隨著這一年的結束，也許你對主要驅動因素的看法。

Sure. Thanks. When it comes to the fee income, we did say relatively stable over the course of the year and it probably is helpful to look at it from 2 components. The first would be a category, I'll call the factors in our control that do deliver nice growth, both from a strong customer acquisition perspective as well as overall fee generation from a combination of the branch network, our wealth business, the commercial business. That will drive both credit card income as well as wealth and asset management fees in the mid-single-digit area and top-line fee equivalent growth in the treasury management area in the high single-digit area, given our strong product lineup.

當然。謝謝。關於費用收入，我們確實說過一年中相對穩定，從兩個方面來看可能會有所幫助。第一個是一個類別，我將把我們控制的因素稱為確實帶來良好增長的因素，無論是從強大的客戶獲取角度，還是從分支網絡、我們的財富業務、商業業務的組合產生的整體費用.鑑於我們強大的產品陣容，這將推動中個位數區域的信用卡收入以及財富和資產管理費用以及高個位數區域的資金管理區域的頂線費用等值增長。

From there, transitioning to mortgage, that's actually going to be the largest growth item for us in 2023. And it really goes back to all the work that we put into growing the servicing business in 2020 and 2021 when levels were more depressed. It was a good buying opportunity. And so given our strong mortgage servicing platform, we'll increase those fees from $125 million in 2022 to the $160 million area. So that's a growth of almost 30%, whereas top-line mortgage should be relatively stable off very low levels.

從那裡開始，過渡到抵押貸款，這實際上將成為我們 2023 年最大的增長項目。這實際上可以追溯到我們在 2020 年和 2021 年水平更加低迷時為發展服務業務所做的所有工作。這是一個很好的買入機會。因此，鑑於我們強大的抵押貸款服務平台，我們會將這些費用從 2022 年的 1.25 億美元增加到 1.6 億美元。所以這是近 30% 的增長，而頂線抵押貸款應該在非常低的水平上相對穩定。

So we feel good about those items. Capital markets is certainly the wildcard in our guide, given that we do expect mid- to high single digits growth in the first half of the year relative to the first half of 2022. And then we assume a little bit of additional growth in the back half of the year under the assumption that the capital markets' disruption should abate once the Fed reaches its terminal Fed fund level.

所以我們對這些項目感覺良好。資本市場肯定是我們指南中的通配符，因為我們確實預計今年上半年相對於 2022 年上半年將實現中高個位數增長。然後我們假設後面會有一點額外增長半年假設一旦美聯儲達到其聯邦基金終端水平，資本市場的混亂就會減弱。

And again, as I said in the prepared remarks, if that were to not happen, then we would expect a little bit better loan growth, a little bit better NII and lower expenses. So in terms of PPNR on a relative basis, I feel confident in that should the capital markets' improvement not occur.

再一次，正如我在準備好的發言中所說，如果那沒有發生，那麼我們預計貸款增長會好一點，NII 會好一點，費用會降低一點。因此，就相對的 PPNR 而言，如果資本市場不會出現改善，我有信心。

And then the other category when it comes to fees, it would be the headwinds facing us. So they're really environmental given the increase in interest rates, and that's on the earnings credit. We're managing earnings credits to about a 20% beta, which is a little bit better than what we thought as we entered the cycle. But even with that, service charges ultimately will be down mid-single digits for the year, which more than offset that strong top-line fee equivalent growth.

然後是關於費用的另一類，這將是我們面臨的不利因素。因此，考慮到利率的上升，它們確實是環保的，這是在收益信貸上。我們將收益信用管理為大約 20% 的貝塔值，這比我們進入周期時的想法要好一點。但即便如此，今年的服務費最終仍將下降中等個位數，這足以抵消強勁的頂線費用當量增長。

On the consumer overdraft and NSF side, we probably do a little bit better relative to peers, just given that we move sooner on some of those fee and structural changes. But overall, the first half of the year will be a little bit softer as we lap those changes that occurred mid-year 2022.

在消費者透支和 NSF 方面，我們可能比同行做得更好一些，只是因為我們更快地採取了一些費用和結構變化。但總的來說，隨著我們對 2022 年年中發生的這些變化進行疊加，今年上半年會稍微溫和一些。

And then as we said in the prepared remarks, the TRA will decline in 2023 as well our expectations on lower private equity income so that other fees will be down 20%, 25% or so.

然後正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，TRA 將在 2023 年下降以及我們對較低私募股權收入的預期，因此其他費用將下降 20%、25% 左右。

I think if there's one thing I might add there, it's -- while we expect capital markets to improve this year, I would not say we expect them to normalize or recover with the investments that have been made in that business. A full recovery in capital markets would result in a substantially larger business and revenue footprint than we're anticipating this year. We just don't expect it to be as bad or as locked up as we saw in 2022.

我想如果我可以補充一件事，那就是——雖然我們預計今年資本市場會有所改善，但我不會說我們預計它們會隨著對該業務的投資而正常化或複蘇。資本市場的全面復甦將導致比我們今年預期的業務和收入足跡大得多。我們只是不希望它像我們在 2022 年看到的那樣糟糕或被鎖定。

Your next question comes from the line of Manan Gosalia from Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Manan Gosalia。

I was wondering, can you just walk through the puts and takes around deposit growth in 2023? I mean, it seems like the expansion in the Southeast is definitely a tailwind here. So how are you thinking about deposit growth, especially given the more challenging macro backdrop?

我想知道，您能否在 2023 年通過看跌期權和存款增長？我的意思是，似乎東南部的擴張絕對是這裡的順風。那麼，您如何看待存款增長，尤其是在更具挑戰性的宏觀背景下？

Yes. This is Bryan. Certainly, we feel good about our franchise and the improvements that we've made over the years. We have a very strong new customer origination engine, both across consumer and commercial.

是的。這是布萊恩。當然，我們對我們的特許經營權以及我們多年來所做的改進感到滿意。我們在消費者和商業領域都有一個非常強大的新客戶發起引擎。

We've got strong new consumer household growth, strong in QRs from a commercial perspective. We have a very high-performing treasury management business that provides a lot of deposit support as well as growth.

從商業角度來看，我們的新消費者家庭增長強勁，QR 強勁。我們有一個非常高效的資金管理業務，提供了大量的存款支持和增長。

And as you mentioned, our Southeast branch expansion, obviously, is going to create a tailwind for us as well. And finally, we have proven and analytically driven customer offers that have done a really nice job through the cycle and driving the balances when we need them.

正如您所提到的，我們的東南分公司擴張顯然也會為我們帶來順風。最後，我們已經證明和分析驅動的客戶報價在整個週期中做得非常好，並在我們需要時推動平衡。

So we continue to maintain a lot of confidence in the environment that we're going to be able to deliver and gain our fair share of deposits as the environment changes. Obviously, we can't grow in all environments, but we are cautiously optimistic and well positioned.

因此，我們繼續對環境保持很大的信心，即隨著環境的變化，我們將能夠交付並獲得公平份額的存款。顯然，我們無法在所有環境中成長，但我們保持謹慎樂觀並做好準備。

Yes. And just to put a number on the -- narrowly on the Southeast, like we grew consumer deposits by over 6% in the Southeast this past year to Bryan's point. That is a year spend on it -- has been a tailwind for us.

是的。只是為了在東南部狹隘地放一個數字，就像我們去年在東南部的消費者存款增長超過 6% 到布萊恩的觀點。這是一年的時間——對我們來說是順風。

Got it. Helpful. And then maybe the flip side of that is the wholesale funding. We saw you had some wholesale funding earlier in the year. So are those balances where you'd like them to be for now? And how does that fit into the overall funding strategy?

知道了。有幫助。然後也許另一面是批發資金。我們看到你在今年早些時候有一些批發資金。那麼這些餘額現在是您希望的嗎？這如何適應整體籌資戰略？

Yes. We're very comfortable with where we are from a wholesale funding perspective. We continue to have very significant contingent liquidity sources that help us manage through uncertainty in the environment.

是的。從批發融資的角度來看，我們對自己所處的位置感到非常滿意。我們繼續擁有非常重要的或有流動性來源，幫助我們應對環境中的不確定性。

If we see decent deposit growth, we could see those wholesale funding balances come down over time. But we have a lot of flexibility across our funding base to help us manage through both liquidity needs as well as net interest income.

如果我們看到可觀的存款增長，我們可能會看到這些批發融資餘額隨著時間的推移而下降。但我們的資金基礎有很大的靈活性，可以幫助我們管理流動性需求和淨利息收入。

Your next question comes from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I just had one follow-up question on the credit comments earlier, Tim. You mentioned about the resiliency of the bank. But when we think about your scenario of higher for longer rates, do you think that begins to weigh on your customers when you look at either on C&I or on the CRE book that the longer the Fed has to stay at the 5-plus rate, their cost of equity capital is going higher, demand is falling off? And does that lead to a lot more pain on credit, maybe not even later in the year into 2024 absent Fed rate cuts?

蒂姆，我剛才有一個關於信用評論的後續問題。你提到了銀行的彈性。但是，當我們考慮你的長期利率更高的情況時，你認為當你在 C&I 或 CRE 賬簿上看美聯儲必須保持 5+ 利率的時間越長時，你是否認為這開始給你的客戶帶來壓力，他們的股本成本越來越高，需求正在下降？這是否會給信貸帶來更多痛苦，甚至可能不會在今年晚些時候進入 2024 年美聯儲不降息？

Yes. Let me give you the quick answer, and then I'll let Richard comment. Absolutely. I think that is our view is that it's more of a slow growing dynamic here than a cliff, right, as Gerard mentioned earlier. And that the longer that we go with rates at elevated levels, the more pressure that it places on business -- commercial borrowers, in particular.

是的。讓我給你一個快速的答案，然後我會讓理查德發表評論。絕對地。我認為這是我們的觀點，它更像是一種緩慢增長的動態，而不是懸崖，對，正如杰拉德之前提到的那樣。而且我們維持高利率的時間越長，它給企業帶來的壓力就越大——尤其是商業借款人。

I think our consumer borrower is a little bit different because such a significant share of our consumer lending is done to homeowners that they've had the ability to inoculate themselves a little bit from inflation because they locked in these historically low fixed rate cost of housing. Richard, do you want to talk a little bit about where specifically you think that grind may take a toll?

我認為我們的消費借款人有點不同，因為我們的消費貸款中有很大一部分是提供給房主的，他們有能力在一定程度上免受通貨膨脹的影響，因為他們鎖定了歷史上較低的固定利率住房成本.理查德，你想談談你認為研磨可能會在哪些方面造成損失嗎？

Yes. Ebrahim, I think there's a couple of things here. To your question specifically, clearly, higher interest rates for longer is going to put pressure across the board. And I think that's, frankly, by design from a Fed standpoint to get things to slow down.

是的。易卜拉欣，我認為這裡有幾件事。具體來說，對於你的問題，很明顯，更高的利率會持續更長的時間，這將給整個行業帶來壓力。坦率地說，我認為從美聯儲的角度來看，這是為了讓事情放緩。

The biggest impact is going to be in the leverage lending portfolio. We're starting with higher levels of leverage. Clearly, higher interest rates impact free cash flow.

影響最大的將是槓桿貸款組合。我們從更高的槓桿水平開始。顯然，較高的利率會影響自由現金流。

One of the things that we do is when we do our underwriting, and frankly, our quarterly monitoring is we will go back and look at the rate curve. And in fact, we look at and we underwrite the rate curve, forward curve plus 200 basis points to make sure that there's enough cushion in free cash flow so that when we're underwriting and taking on these loans, we can -- we believe these borrowers can withstand the pressure of higher rates through their margins and free cash flow.

我們所做的其中一件事是當我們進行承保時，坦率地說，我們的季度監控是我們將回頭看看利率曲線。事實上，我們查看並承銷利率曲線，遠期曲線加上 200 個基點，以確保自由現金流有足夠的緩衝，這樣當我們承銷和接受這些貸款時，我們可以 - 我們相信這些借款人可以通過保證金和自由現金流承受更高利率的壓力。

I think the other thing we're watching for and as we think about the economy and Tim referenced labor, both cost and availability that in certain segments continues to put pressure on margins, particularly for those industries that have a mismatch between the revenue management and their expense management. So maybe they've got long-term fixed price sales contracts they've got to manage through with short-term labor.

我認為我們正在關注的另一件事是，當我們考慮經濟和蒂姆提到的勞動力時，某些領域的成本和可用性繼續對利潤率構成壓力，特別是對於那些收入管理與收入管理不匹配的行業他們的費用管理。所以也許他們有長期的固定價格銷售合同，他們必須用短期勞動力來管理。

And probably the most acute example of where this is happening is in pockets of health care, senior living. We've talked about not-for-profit hospitals, which have low margins. The cost to deliver care and service has gone up pretty dramatically. You can look at nursing availability and wages is a really good example.

發生這種情況的最明顯的例子可能是醫療保健和老年人生活。我們談到了利潤率低的非營利性醫院。提供護理和服務的成本大幅上升。你可以看看護士的可用性和工資就是一個很好的例子。

And there's a lag there in the revenue cycle in terms of reimbursement rates, whether it's public or private, where these companies -- for these companies to maintain margins, profitability. And so in those cases, we're looking at other things, the quality of the balance sheet, liquidity and liquidity burn rates.

在報銷率方面，收入周期存在滯後，無論是公共的還是私人的，這些公司——這些公司要保持利潤率和盈利能力。因此，在這些情況下，我們正在考慮其他因素，資產負債表的質量、流動性和流動性消耗率。

But no question that the higher -- as rates are higher for longer, it puts pressure on businesses. I think the last thing, and this is part of client selection is understanding the ability of our borrowers to adapt and the resilience to these things.

但毫無疑問，利率越高，利率越高的時間越長，它就會給企業帶來壓力。我認為最後一件事，也是客戶選擇的一部分，是了解我們的借款人適應這些事情的能力和彈性。

So it's not just a situation where rates are higher, and companies don't adapt or consumers don't adapt. And it's part of the relationship model and part of the way we go to market in terms of the advice and counsel with our customers, understanding what's happening, looking for alternatives, finding new ways to finance these customers. So that resilience through the cycle will continue to endure.

因此，這不僅僅是利率更高的情況，而且公司不適應或消費者不適應。它是關係模型的一部分，也是我們向客戶提供建議和諮詢、了解正在發生的事情、尋找替代方案、尋找為這些客戶融資的新方法方面的市場方式的一部分。因此，在整個週期中的彈性將繼續存在。

That was helpful. And I guess just one quick follow-up, Jamie, on Dividend Finance. About $100 million of provisioning, anything else around Dividend Finance in terms of growth outlook this year versus last year that we should be aware of? Are things picking up or slowing down as we think about just the underlying growth in the business?

那很有幫助。我猜 Jamie 只是關於股息融資的快速跟進。大約 1 億美元的準備金，就今年與去年的增長前景而言，我們應該注意的有關股息融資的其他任何事情？當我們只考慮業務的潛在增長時，事情是在好轉還是在放緩？

Yes, we feel very good about the business that Dividend is doing, especially on the solar side of the aisle. And for us, we're expecting roughly $4.5 billion of originations in 2023 with a weighting of 90% solar, 10% home improvement. Home improvement we're less enamored with. But again, it's a good product offering for other points in the cycle.

是的，我們對股息所做的業務感到非常滿意，尤其是在過道的太陽能方面。對於我們來說，我們預計到 2023 年將產生大約 45 億美元的資金，其中太陽能佔 90%，家居裝修佔 10%。我們不太喜歡的家居裝修。但同樣，對於週期中的其他點來說，這是一個很好的產品。

So it's being deemphasized, and solar continues to do incredibly well. And if anything, there's perhaps a little bit of upside to our NII guide on Dividend for 2023, just given the strength of the business as well as the pricing power.

所以它不再受到重視，而太陽能繼續表現得非常好。如果有的話，考慮到業務實力和定價能力，我們的 NII 2023 年股息指南可能有一點上行空間。

Your next question comes from the line of John Pancari from Evercore.

你的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 John Pancari。

On the credit front, I know you gave us really good detail on delinquencies and non-accruals. Do you have what criticized assets did in the quarter? And what areas of criticized they have migrated negatively?

在信貸方面，我知道你給了我們關於拖欠和非應計項目的非常詳細的信息。你有什麼被批評的資產在這個季度做了什麼？他們對哪些批評領域進行了負面遷移？

Yes. This is Richard. Thanks for the question. Criticized assets were flat for the quarter, both nominally, I think we had a little bit loan growth, so about 3 basis points of commercial credit improvement across the board.

是的。這是理查德。謝謝你的問題。本季度受批評的資產在名義上持平，我認為我們的貸款略有增長，因此商業信貸全面改善約 3 個基點。

I would also point out that in addition to credit being stable, delinquencies 30 to 89, 90 and above, NPAs charge-offs were all down for the quarter on the commercial side. I think the things we're watching, and I hit on it a little bit, health care, specifically not-for-profit hospitals and senior living for the reasons we just talked about, we've seen some pressure there because of the mismatch between the revenue management and expense management.

我還要指出，除了信貸穩定之外，拖欠率從 30 到 89、90 及以上，商業方面的不良資產沖銷在本季度都下降了。我認為我們正在關注的事情，我想了一下，醫療保健，特別是非營利性醫院和老年人生活，出於我們剛才談到的原因，由於不匹配，我們在那裡看到了一些壓力在收入管理和費用管理之間。

A little bit of pressure in watching in commercial specialty products, consumer specialty products, right? That's a function of consumers shifting from durables and discretionaries to consumables and nondiscretionary and supply chain and inventory management issues.

看商業特色產品、消費特色產品有點壓力吧？這是消費者從耐用品和非必需品轉向消耗品和非必需品以及供應鍊和庫存管理問題的結果。

That's the trading down issue. And that's where we've seen most of the movement. The leverage portfolio from an asset quality standpoint has been stable and operating within our expectations.

那就是向下交易的問題。這就是我們看到大部分運動的地方。從資產質量的角度來看，槓桿組合一直穩定並在我們的預期範圍內運行。

Okay. That's helpful. And then sticking to credit, just my follow-up is around both commercial real estate and home equity. In commercial real estate, it looks like you did see pretty noteworthy move up in delinquencies as well as the non-accruals.

好的。這很有幫助。然後堅持信貸，我的後續行動是圍繞商業房地產和房屋淨值。在商業房地產中，您似乎確實看到了拖欠率和非應計項目的顯著上升。

And so can you guys talk a little bit about property types within commercial real estate where you're seeing a little bit of stress and where your loan-to-value ratios are? And then in home equity, it looks like you also saw a pretty noteworthy increase in delinquencies there. Just want to get color around that portfolio.

那麼，你們能談談商業房地產中的房產類型嗎？在這些房產中，您看到了一些壓力，以及您的貸款價值比在哪裡？然後在房屋淨值方面，您似乎也看到拖欠率顯著增加。只是想為該投資組合增添色彩。

Let me take commercial real estate. I think when you think about the delinquencies -- if you look at the delinquencies and this is on the slide deck on Slide 30, 90-plus is still 0. We've got none.

讓我拿商業地產。我想當你考慮拖欠時——如果你看拖欠，這是在幻燈片 30 的幻燈片上，90+ 仍然是 0。我們沒有。

Movements in 30 to 89, 6 basis points, it's off a really, really low, low base. So it's not something that we're concerned about from a commercial real estate perspective.

在 30 到 89 之間的變動，6 個基點，這是一個非常非常低的基數。因此，從商業房地產的角度來看，這不是我們關心的事情。

I think the thing we're watching for, we're watching -- I don't know a lot of people got questions on office. We're watching office. That's a small number for us. In fact, our performance in office is actually in line with or better than the rest of the commercial bank.

我認為我們正在關注的事情，我們正在關注——我不知道有多少人在辦公室有問題。我們正在看辦公室。這對我們來說是一個很小的數字。事實上，我們在辦公室的表現實際上與其他商業銀行持平或更好。

But there is some pressure there as occupancy, attendance and lease rates continue to -- and sublease rates continue to fall. I think there's a couple of things. We've got a very small amount of urban central business district office. That's where most of the pressure is in terms of subletting rates.

但隨著入住率、出勤率和租賃率繼續上升，轉租率繼續下降，這方面存在一些壓力。我認為有幾件事。我們有極少量的城市中央商務區寫字樓。這就是大部分壓力來自轉租率的地方。

That for us is Class A property. I would also tell you that in addition to class, vintage matters. That's all new product. It's a new product. It's ESG, qualified, lead, gold and platinum. It has all the modern amenities. So we feel really good about from those particular properties.

這對我們來說是 A 級財產。我還要告訴你，除了階級，年份也很重要。這都是新產品。這是一個新產品。它是 ESG、合格、鉛、黃金和鉑金。它擁有所有現代化的設施。因此，我們對這些特定屬性感到非常滿意。

The rest of our office portfolio sits more in suburban markets. And again, some of you are saying pressure from a lease rate, sublease rate and a tenant perspective across the board. Across the rest of commercial real estate, multifamily continues to perform very well. The demographic trends, the household formation continue to be strong. Rental rates continue to accelerate faster than construction costs.

我們其餘的寫字樓組合更多地位於郊區市場。再一次，你們中的一些人表示壓力來自租賃率、轉租率和租戶的全面視角。在其他商業地產中，多戶住宅繼續表現出色。人口趨勢，家庭形成繼續強勁。租金率的增長速度繼續快於建築成本。

So again, there's a positive tailwind there. Same thing with industrial demand. This kind of goes back to the reshoring thing -- trend. Industrial demand is really strong, continues -- lease rates continue to hold in. So we feel really good there.

再次，那裡有一個積極的順風。工業需求也是如此。這可以追溯到回流的事情——趨勢。工業需求真的很強勁，而且還在繼續——租賃率繼續保持不變。所以我們在那裡感覺非常好。

Hospitality is stable. And that continues to be a good trend and then in retail is stable. So feeling really good about where we are from an overall perspective in commercial real estate. You want to add a comment?

招待穩定。這仍然是一個良好的趨勢，然後零售業穩定。因此，從商業房地產的整體角度來看，我們對自己所處的位置感到非常滿意。你想添加評論嗎？

Yes, John, I just was going to say on the equity side, all you're seeing, I think, in the consumer for us at the moment is just seasonality. Like a sequential comp from the third quarter to the fourth quarter are the wrong comparisons. Just given the natural seasonality in those businesses, I think it's better just to look at year-over-year.

是的，約翰，我只是想在股票方面說，我認為，你目前在我們的消費者中看到的只是季節性。就像從第三季度到第四季度的順序比較是錯誤的比較。考慮到這些業務的自然季節性，我認為最好只看年復一年。

And we expect consumer credit to normalize over time. That's reflected in the guide that we gave. But the delinquency dynamics, there are really no different than what you would have seen pre-pandemic, other than the fact that they're still muted relative to what we would have had in the past. So I -- personally, home equity is not the area that's been an area of focus for me. That's for certain.

我們預計消費信貸會隨著時間的推移正常化。這反映在我們提供的指南中。但是，拖欠動態與你在大流行前所看到的並沒有什麼不同，除了它們相對於我們過去的情況仍然沒有變化這一事實。所以我 - 就個人而言，房屋淨值並不是我關注的領域。這是肯定的。

Yes. No, I got that. I just saw the reserve addition as well to the home equity allowance.

是的。不，我明白了。我剛剛看到儲備增加以及房屋淨值津貼。

But actually, I think the dynamic there is that for the first time in as long as I've been at the bank, we actually had quarter-over-quarter home equity growth. So that's what's driving that outcome, but not a change in perspective for us on the quality of the credit or the likely outcomes there.

但實際上，我認為這是我在銀行工作以來的第一次，我們實際上實現了季度環比的房屋淨值增長。所以這就是推動這一結果的原因，但不會改變我們對信貸質量或那裡可能出現的結果的看法。

Your next question comes from the line of Matt O'Connor from Deutsche Bank.

你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor。

I might have misheard the comment on the indirect auto kind of loan growth expectations for this year. Can you just repeat that, what the strategy is and what you're seeing in the spreads there?

我可能聽錯了關於今年間接汽車類貸款增長預期的評論。你能重複一遍嗎，策略是什麼，你在價差中看到了什麼？

Yes. Actually, spreads have done well and are actually off to a very solid start in 2023. We finished the year in 2022 with $7.1 billion of production, if you take auto as well as the RV, marine and specialty business combined. So that fixed rate consumer-secured loan category.

是的。實際上，價差表現不錯，實際上在 2023 年開局非常穩健。我們在 2022 年結束了這一年，如果您將汽車以及房車、船舶和專業業務加起來，產值將達到 71 億美元。所以固定利率消費擔保貸款類別。

Our expectation for 2023 for that asset class is to be down to about $6 billion or so. So loan balances in that caption, we would expect to be down. However, yields, we expect to improve about a 100 basis points from the fourth quarter '22 levels to fourth quarter 2023 levels. So it is a nice accelerator to the earlier question around how are you able to deliver both NII growth and NIM expansion. That certainly is a helpful driver.

我們對該資產類別的 2023 年預期將降至約 60 億美元左右。因此，我們預計該標題中的貸款餘額會下降。然而，我們預計收益率將從 22 年第四季度的水平提高約 100 個基點至 2023 年第四季度的水平。因此，對於之前關於如何實現 NII 增長和 NIM 擴展的問題，它是一個很好的加速器。這當然是一個有用的驅動程序。

Got it. And then just separately on the capital level, we're seeing some divergence in targeted capital out there. Obviously, there's like upward pressure at the biggest banks, not really relevant to you.

知道了。然後單獨在資本層面上，我們看到目標資本存在一些差異。顯然，最大的銀行存在上行壓力，與您無關。

But then some of your peers are targeting closer to 10%. And I'm certainly on board with 9%, seeming very high. But I'm wondering, is there any kind of behind-the-scenes pressure whether it's rating agencies or regulators to just hold a little bit more, given some of the macro uncertainty or anything else that we're not seeing?

但是你的一些同行的目標是接近 10%。我當然支持 9%，看起來非常高。但我想知道，考慮到一些宏觀不確定性或我們沒有看到的任何其他因素，是否存在任何幕後壓力，無論是評級機構還是監管機構只持有多一點？

Yes. Great question, Matt. Thanks for asking. I would say that as this environment unfolds, it really is, to your point, going to create differentiation in both performance, execution and overall balance sheet positioning.

是的。好問題，馬特。謝謝你的提問。我想說的是，隨著這種環境的發展，就你的觀點而言，它確實會在績效、執行和整體資產負債表定位方面產生差異化。

We've, I think, for a number of quarters and years now been discussing how cautious our outlook is. And that has really informed what we're willing to do from a credit risk appetite perspective. So the capital levels ultimately are a factor of the credit profile of what's on the sheet as well as the reserve levels that we have.

我認為，幾個季度和幾年來，我們一直在討論我們的前景有多謹慎。從信用風險偏好的角度來看，這確實說明了我們願意做什麼。因此，資本水平最終是表上信用狀況以及我們擁有的準備金水平的一個因素。

So the CET1 level at 9.25% and an ACL level of 1.98% creates a very sufficient loss absorption capacity. And given our SCB level is the -- at the minimum, I think external factors or forces would say that we're very well positioned from a credit profile perspective as well as from a loss absorption capacity. So we feel good about that.

因此，9.25% 的 CET1 水平和 1.98% 的 ACL 水平創造了非常充足的損耗吸收能力。鑑於我們的 SCB 級別是 - 至少，我認為外部因素或力量會說我們從信用狀況和損失吸收能力的角度來看都處於非常有利的地位。所以我們對此感覺很好。

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Usdin from Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

This is Ben Raisebeck on for Ken. Just a quick follow-up on the Dividend Finance. As those originations continue to ramp up and mortgage loans go on balance sheet, when do you ultimately see that NII benefit overcoming the reserve builds and becoming accretive to earnings? And then can you just remind us of what type of loss rates you're assuming on those dividend loans?

這是 Ben Raisebeck 代替 Ken。只是對股息融資的快速跟進。隨著這些起源繼續增加並且抵押貸款進入資產負債表，您最終什麼時候會看到 NII 收益克服準備金增加並增加收益？然後你能不能提醒我們你對這些股息貸款假設的損失率是什麼類型？

Yes, great question. The PPNR levels for dividend will be positive in the back half of -- or in 2023. The net income of dividend post-ACL will be positive or accretive in 2024.

是的，很好的問題。股息的 PPNR 水平將在下半年或 2023 年為正。股息後 ACL 的淨收入將在 2024 年為正或增加。

Certainly, if prepayments accelerate faster than what we have modeled, then that large amount of unamortized platform fees will come through the P&L, would it improve or accelerate the return profile. But for now, that's how we have it playing out.

當然，如果預付款加速比我們模擬的更快，那麼大量未攤銷的平台費用將通過損益表產生，這會改善或加速回報狀況。但就目前而言，這就是我們的表現。

And we model roughly an 8-year life on the dividend asset and that we would expect to have loss rates in the 125 basis point area on a blended basis for the portfolio per year over those 8 years.

我們為股息資產建模了大約 8 年的壽命，並且我們預計在這 8 年中，投資組合每年的損失率在 125 個基點區域的混合基礎上。

There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Chris Doll, I'd like to turn the call back over to you for some closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。 Chris Doll 先生，我想將電話轉回給您，請您作一些結束語。

Thank you, operator, and thanks, everyone, for your interest in Fifth Third. Please contact the Investor Relations department if you have any follow-up questions. Operator, you can now disconnect the call.

謝謝接線員，也謝謝大家對 Fifth Third 的關注。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯繫投資者關係部。接線員，您現在可以掛斷電話了。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。