(FITBO) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day. My name is Elie, and I will be your conference operator for today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the Fifth Third Bancorp First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I'd now like to hand over the call to Matt Curoe. You may now begin the conference.

再會。我叫 Elie，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。現在，我歡迎大家參加第三屆 Bancorp 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。 （接線員指示）我現在想將電話轉給馬特·庫羅。您現在可以開始會議了。

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Fifth Third's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. This morning, our Chairman, CEO and President, Tim Spence; and CFO, Bryan Preston will provide an overview of our first quarter results and outlook. Our Chief Credit Officer, Greg Schroeck, has also joined for the Q&A portion of the call. Please review the cautionary statements in our materials, which can be found in our earnings release and presentation. These materials contain information regarding the use of non-GAAP measures and reconciliations to the GAAP results as well as forward-looking statements about Fifth Third's performance. These statements speak only as of April 19, 2024, and Fifth Third undertakes no obligation to update them. Following prepared remarks by Tim and Bryan, we will open up the call for questions.

大家，早安。歡迎參加第五屆 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。今天早上，我們的董事長、執行長兼總裁 Tim Spence；財務長 Bryan Preston 將概述我們第一季的業績和前景。我們的首席信貸官 Greg Schroeck 也參加了電話會議的問答部分。請查看我們資料中的警示聲明，這些聲明可以在我們的收益發布和演示中找到。這些資料包含有關非公認會計準則衡量標準的使用和公認會計準則結果的調節的信息，以及有關 Fifth Third 業績的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明僅截至 2024 年 4 月 19 日，Fifth Third 不承擔更新義務。在提姆和布萊恩準備好發言後，我們將開始提問。

With that, let me turn it over to Tim.

接下來，讓我把它交給提姆。

Thanks, Matt, and good morning, everyone. At Fifth Third, we believe that great banks distinguish themselves not by how they perform in benign environments but rather by how they navigate challenging ones.

謝謝馬特，大家早安。在 Fifth Third，我們認為，偉大的銀行之所以能脫穎而出，不在於它們在良性環境中的表現，而在於它們如何應對充滿挑戰的環境。

In that sense, the uncertainty we face in the current environment provides us with an opportunity to demonstrate that our focus on stability, profitability and growth in that order will produce consistently strong some might even say boring financial results. This morning, we reported earnings per share of $0.70 or $0.76 excluding the Visa MasterCard settlement litigation charges and the additional FDIC special assessment. All major income statement captions were in line with or better than the guidance that we provided in our January earnings call. Our adjusted return on equity and return on assets are the highest of all peers who have reported thus far and the most stable when compared to results from the first quarter of 2023.

從這個意義上說，我們在當前環境中面臨的不確定性為我們提供了一個機會來證明，我們對穩定性、盈利能力和增長的關注將產生持續強勁的財務業績，有些人甚至會說這是乏味的。今天上午，我們公佈的每股收益為 0.70 美元或 0.76 美元，不包括 Visa MasterCard 和解訴訟費用和額外的 FDIC 特別評估費用。所有主要損益表標題均符合或優於我們在 1 月收益電話會議中提供的指引。與 2023 年第一季的業績相比，我們的調整後股本回報率和資產回報率是迄今為止所有已報告的同行中最高的，也是最穩定的。

We grew period-end deposits compared to the prior quarter and generated an annualized consumer household growth of 3%, punctuated by 7% growth in our Southeast markets. Since 2018, we have built more than 100 de novo branches in the Southeast. As a portfolio, they are exceeding our expectations, having achieved 112% of their household growth goals and 132% of the deposit goals built into the business cases.

與上一季相比，我們的期末存款有所成長，家庭消費年增率為 3%，其中東南市場的成長率為 7%。自2018年以來，我們已在東南部新建了100多家分公司。作為一個投資組合，他們超出了我們的預期，實現了商業案例中 112% 的家庭成長目標和 132% 的存款目標。

Florida is our top-performing de novo market with deposit dollars at 195% in gold. J.D. Power also recently named Fifth Third #1 for retail banking customer satisfaction in the Florida market. Importantly, net interest margins improved in the quarter driven by stabilizing deposit costs, with interest-bearing deposit costs increasing only 1 basis point sequentially. Consistent with our guidance last year, the fourth quarter of 2023 marked the low point for NIM, and we believe the first quarter of 2024 will mark the low point for NII.

佛羅裡達州是我們表現最好的 de novo 市場，存款金額中 195% 為黃金。 J.D. Power 最近也將 Fifth Third 評為佛羅裡達市場零售銀行客戶滿意度第一名。重要的是，在存款成本穩定的推動下，本季淨利差有所改善，計息存款成本較上季僅增加 1 個基點。與我們去年的指引一致，2023 年第四季是 NIM 的低點，我們認為 2024 年第一季將是 NII 的低點。

While end-of-period loan balances were down 1% compared to the prior quarter, we saw solid middle market loan growth across our footprint with Tennessee, the Carolinas, Kentucky, Indiana and Texas achieving the strongest results. Our footprint continues to benefit in an outsized way from federal incentives to bolster investments in domestic manufacturing and energy infrastructure. The Midwest and Southeast have received more investment per capita than other U.S. regions in industries as diverse as multimodal logistics, semiconductors, batteries and [pet food.]

雖然期末貸款餘額比上一季下降了 1%，但我們發現整個中間市場貸款成長強勁，其中田納西州、卡羅來納州、肯塔基州、印第安納州和德克薩斯州取得了最強勁的業績。我們的足跡繼續從聯邦激勵措施中大幅受益，以加強對國內製造業和能源基礎設施的投資。中西部和東南部在多式聯運物流、半導體、電池和[寵物食品]等行業獲得的人均投資高於美國其他地區。

Treasury Management and Wealth and Asset Management were the strongest contributors to fee income, driven by the strategic investments we have been making in both areas. Treasury management revenue grew 11% year-over-year driven by our software-enabled managed services payments offerings and Newline, our embedded payments business. Over 1/3 of the new treasury management relationships added in the quarter were payments led and had no credit extended. Wealth and Asset Management fee revenues grew 10% year-over-year, highlighted by strong growth in Fifth Third Wealth Advisors. The RIA platform we launched in 2022, which recently crossed $1 billion in assets under management. Our credit performance remained stable, highlighted by continued strength in our commercial real estate portfolio. We posted another quarter of 0 net charge-offs in CRE and have less than $3 million of NPAs in our nonowner-occupied portfolio. While we expect that broader credit trends will continue to normalize, our emphasis on client selection and credit discipline helps to ensure that we have a well-diversified portfolio, not overly concentrated in any asset class industry or geography.

受我們在這兩個領域進行的策略性投資的推動，資金管理和財富與資產管理是費用收入的最大貢獻者。在我們的軟體支援的託管服務支付產品和嵌入式支付業務 Newline 的推動下，資金管理收入較去年同期成長 11%。本季新增的資金管理關係中有超過 1/3 是付款主導的且沒有信貸發放。財富和資產管理費用收入年增 10%，其中 Fifth Third Wealth Advisors 的強勁成長凸顯了這一點。我們在 2022 年推出的 RIA 平台，最近管理的資產規模突破了 10 億美元。我們的信貸表現保持穩定，商業房地產投資組合的持續強勁凸顯了這一點。我們在 CRE 中又公佈了四分之一的淨沖銷為零，並且我們的非業主自用投資組合中的不良資產少於 300 萬美元。雖然我們預計更廣泛的信貸趨勢將繼續正常化，但我們對客戶選擇和信貸紀律的重視有助於確保我們擁有多元化的投資組合，而不是過度集中於任何資產類別行業或地區。

Expenses are well controlled. Adjusted for discrete items highlighted in the release, expenses declined 1% year-over-year driven by savings realized through process automation and our focus on value streams. Expense discipline is what has allowed us to make the long-term investments in our business necessary to generate superior returns and operating leverage through the cycle.

費用控制得很好。在針對新聞稿中強調的離散項目進行調整後，由於流程自動化實現的節省以及我們對價值流的關注，費用比去年同期下降了 1%。費用紀律使我們能夠對業務進行必要的長期投資，以在整個週期中產生卓越的回報和營運槓桿。

Looking forward to the rest of the year, we remain cautious given the wide range of potential economic and geopolitical scenarios that could materialize. Depending on how you read the most recent data, inflation is either sticky at 3% slowly moving down to 2% or moving back up past 4%. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated and deficit spending, green energy investments and the domestication of supply chains are all inherently inflationary in the medium term. We believe the best way to manage an uncertain times is to stay liquid, stay neutrally positioned and stay broadly diversified while investing with the long term in mind. That is what we intend to do.

展望今年剩餘時間，鑑於可能出現的各種潛在經濟和地緣政治情景，我們仍保持謹慎態度。根據您如何解讀最新數據，通膨率要麼黏滯在 3%，緩慢下降至 2%，要麼回升至 4% 以上。地緣政治緊張局勢依然加劇，赤字支出、綠色能源投資和供應鏈本土化從中期來看本質上都會引發通膨。我們認為，應對不確定時期的最佳方式是保持流動性、保持中立立場並保持廣泛多元化，同時著眼於長期投資。這就是我們打算做的。

I want to thank our employees. Your household heart and dedication are why we've been recognized thus far in 2024 as one of the world's most admired companies by Fortune, one of the best brands for customer service by Forbes and one of the world's most ethical companies by Ethisphere.

我要感謝我們的員工。你們的家庭之心和奉獻精神是我們迄今為止在2024 年被《財富》評為全球最受尊敬的公司之一、被《福布斯》評為最佳客戶服務品牌之一以及被Ethisphere 評為全球最有道德的公司之一的原因。

Thank you for keeping our shareholders, customers and communities at the center of everything we do. With that, I'll now turn it over to Bryan to provide additional details on our first quarter results and our current outlook for 2024.

感謝您將我們的股東、客戶和社區置於我們所做一切的中心。現在，我將把它交給 Bryan，以提供有關我們第一季業績和當前 2024 年前景的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Tim, and thank you to everyone joining us today. Our first quarter results were a strong start to the year, reflecting our balance sheet strength, disciplined expense and credit risk management and diversified fee revenue streams. We saw new household growth accelerate and new quality relationships in commercial post-steady gains.

謝謝蒂姆，也感謝今天加入我們的所有人。我們第一季的業績是今年的強勁開局，反映出我們的資產負債表實力、嚴格的支出和信用風險管理以及多元化的費用收入來源。我們看到新的家庭成長加速，商業穩定後的成長出現了新的優質關係。

For over a year, we have highlighted the importance of maintaining balance sheet strength and flexibility in an uncertain economic and interest rate environment. Our first quarter results evidenced the strength of our current position which should produce strong and stable returns across a wide range of economic outcomes. This approach has served us well as rate cut expectations are pushed out.

一年多來，我們一直強調在不確定的經濟和利率環境中保持資產負債表實力和靈活性的重要性。我們第一季的業績證明了我們當前地位的實力，應該在廣泛的經濟成果中產生強勁而穩定的回報。在降息預期被延後的情況下，這種方法對我們很有幫助。

As Tim mentioned, our profitability remains strong as we have the highest ROA and ROE and among the best efficiency ratios of our peers that have reported to date in a quarter in which we have outsized seasonal compensation expenses. On a year-over-year basis, we were the most stable for both ROA and ROE and among the most stable for NII and the efficiency ratio.

正如蒂姆所提到的，我們的盈利能力仍然強勁，因為我們的 ROA 和 ROE 最高，並且是迄今為止我們報告的季度薪酬支出過大的同行中最好的效率比率之一。與去年同期相比，我們的 ROA 和 ROE 都是最穩定的，NII 和效率比也是最穩定的。

Our consistent and strong earnings added 15 basis points to CET1 during the quarter, inclusive of absorbing 8 basis points impact from the CECL phase-in. Turning to the income statement. Net interest income for the quarter was $1.4 billion and consistent with our expectations. Interest-bearing deposit costs were well managed and increased only 1 basis point compared to the prior quarter.

本季我們持續強勁的獲利為 CET1 增加了 15 個基點，其中包括吸收 CECL 逐步實施帶來的 8 個基點的影響。轉向損益表。本季淨利息收入為 14 億美元，符合我們的預期。計息存款成本管理良好，較上季僅上升1個基點。

The balance sheet continues to be reflective of defensive positioning with optionality to navigate the changing economic and interest rate environments. Net interest margin improved 1 basis point for the quarter, increased yields on new production of fixed rate consumer loans and day count benefits contribute to the growth and were partially offset by the deposit balance migration from demand to interest-bearing accounts.

資產負債表繼續反映防禦性定位，並具有應對不斷變化的經濟和利率環境的選擇權。本季淨利差提高了 1 個基點，固定利率消費貸款新產出的收益率增加和日數收益促進了增長，但部分被存款餘額從需求帳戶轉移到計息帳戶所抵消。

This increase in NIM is the first sequential improvement since the fourth quarter of 2022. Excluding the impacts of secured gains and the Visa total return swap, adjusted noninterest income decreased 1% from a year ago quarter due to lower revenue in commercial banking, leasing and mortgage, partially offset by strong growth in treasury management and wealth and asset management fees, where both saw double-digit revenue growth over the prior year.

淨利差的成長是自2022 年第四季以來首次連續改善。業務收入下降。

The securities gains of $10 million reflected the mark-to-market impact of our nonqualified deferred compensation plan, which is more than offset in compensation expense. Adjusted noninterest expense decreased 1% compared to the year ago quarter due to our continued focus on expense discipline and the ongoing benefits from our process automation efforts. While expenses are down versus the prior year, we continue to invest in opening new branches and increased marketing spend to drive household growth. Adjusted noninterest expense increased 8% sequentially as expected due to seasonal items associated with the timing of compensation awards and payroll taxes in addition to $15 million of expense from the previously mentioned nonqualified deferred compensation plan.

1000 萬美元的證券收益反映了我們的不合格遞延薪酬計劃按市值計價的影響，這足以抵消薪酬費用。由於我們持續關注費用紀律以及流程自動化工作帶來的持續效益，調整後的非利息費用與去年同期相比下降了 1%。雖然費用比上年有所下降，但我們繼續投資開設新分行並增加行銷支出，以推動家庭成長。由於與薪酬獎勵時間和工資稅相關的季節性項目以及先前提到的不合格遞延薪酬計劃的 1500 萬美元費用，調整後的非利息費用按預期環比增長 8%。

Moving to the balance sheet. Total average portfolio loans and leases decreased 1% sequentially. Average commercial portfolio loans decreased 2% due to lower demand from corporate banking borrowers and the average balance impact of last year's RWA diet, which reduced both total commitments and loan balances during the second half of 2023. Middle market loans increased during the quarter as we drive for more granularity in our winning private bank relationships. As Tim discussed, we saw solid middle-market loan growth across our footprint. Period-end commercial revolver utilization was 36%, a 1% increase from the prior quarter, also driven by middle market. Average total consumer portfolio loans and leases were flat sequentially due to the overall slowdown in residential mortgage originations, given the rate environment, offset by growth from solar energy installation loans and indirect auto originations.

轉向資產負債表。平均貸款和租賃組合總額較上月下降 1%。由於企業銀行借款人的需求下降以及去年RWA 飲食的平均餘額影響，平均商業投資組合貸款下降了2%，這減少了2023 年下半年的承諾總額和貸款餘額。因為我們推動我們贏得私人銀行關係的更精細化。正如蒂姆所討論的，我們看到整個中間市場貸款的穩健增長。期末商業左輪手槍利用率為 36%，比上一季成長 1%，這也是受到中間市場的推動。由於利率環境下住宅抵押貸款發放總體放緩，平均消費者投資組合貸款和租賃總額環比持平，但被太陽能安裝貸款和間接汽車發放的增長所抵消。

Average core deposits decreased 1% sequentially, driven primarily by normal seasonality within our business. Decreases in DDA balances and CDs were partially offset by increases in interest checking. By segment, average consumer deposits decreased 1% sequentially, while both commercial and wealth deposits were flat.

平均核心存款較上季下降 1%，這主要是由於我們業務的正常季節性所致。 DDA 餘額和存款證的減少被利息檢查的增加部分抵銷。以細分市場來看，平均消費者存款較上季下降 1%，而商業存款和財富存款則持平。

Consumer deposits rebounded towards the end of the quarter to finish slightly higher than at the start of the quarter. As Tim mentioned, we are very pleased with the results of our multiyear Southeast branch investments, which are driving both strong household growth and granular insured deposits. DDA as a percent of core deposits was 25% as of the end of the first quarter compared to 26% in the prior quarter. Migration of DDA balances continued during the first quarter, and we expect that trend to carry on in 2024, but at a slower pace than in prior quarters. We ended the quarter with full Category 1 LCR compliance at 135%, and our loan-to-core deposit ratio of 71%.

消費者存款在本季末出現反彈，略高於本季初。正如提姆所提到的，我們對東南分行多年投資的結果感到非常滿意，這些投資正在推動強勁的家庭成長和細粒度的保險存款。截至第一季末，DDA 佔核心存款的百分比為 25%，而上一季為 26%。第一季 DDA 餘額遷移仍在繼續，我們預計這一趨勢將在 2024 年繼續下去，但速度將慢於前幾季。截至本季末，我們的 1 類 LCR 合規率為 135%，貸款與核心存款比率為 71%。

The strong funding profile continues to provide us with great flexibility. Moving to credit. Asset quality trends remain well behaved and below historical averages. The net charge-off ratio was 38 basis points, which was up 6 basis points sequentially and consistent with our guidance. The ratio of early-stage loan delinquencies 30 to 89 days past due decreased 2 basis points sequentially to 29 bps. The NPA ratio increased 5 basis points to 64 basis points. We have maintained our credit discipline by generating and maintaining granular high-quality relationships and by managing concentration risks to any asset class, region or industry.

強勁的資金狀況繼續為我們提供了極大的靈活性。轉向信貸。資產品質趨勢仍然表現良好，低於歷史平均。淨核銷率為 38 個基點，較上季上升 6 個基點，與我們的指引一致。逾期 30 至 89 天的早期貸款拖欠率較上季下降 2 個基點至 29 個基點。 NPA 比率上升 5 個基點，達到 64 個基點。我們透過建立和維持細粒度的高品質關係以及管理任何資產類別、地區或行業的集中風險來維持我們的信用紀律。

In consumer, our focus remains on lending to homeowners, which is a segment less impacted by inflationary pressures and have maintained our conservative underwriting policies. We continue to see the expected normalization of delinquency and credit loss trends from the historically low levels experienced over the last couple of years. From an overall credit risk management perspective, we assess forward-looking client vulnerabilities based on firm-specific and industry trends and closely monitor all exposures where inflation and higher for longer interest rates may cause stress.

在消費者方面，我們的重點仍然是向房主提供貸款，該領域受通膨壓力影響較小，並維持了保守的承保政策。我們繼續看到拖欠和信用損失趨勢從過去幾年的歷史低點開始正常化。從整體信用風險管理的角度來看，我們根據公司特定和行業趨勢評估前瞻性客戶脆弱性，並密切監控通貨膨脹和長期較高利率可能造成壓力的所有風險敞口。

Moving to the ACL. Our reserve coverage ratio remained unchanged at 2.12% and included a $16 million reserve release driven by lower end-of-period loan balances and modest improvements in the economic scenarios. We continue to utilize Moody's macroeconomic scenarios when evaluating our allowance and made no changes to our scenario weightings.

轉向 ACL。我們的準備金覆蓋率保持在 2.12% 不變，其中包括因期末貸款餘額下降和經濟狀況適度改善而釋放的 1,600 萬美元準備金。在評估我們的準備金時，我們繼續利用穆迪的宏觀經濟情景，並且沒有改變我們的情景權重。

Moving to capital. We ended the quarter with a CET1 ratio of 10.44%, and we continue to believe that 10.5% is an appropriate near-term operating level. As a reminder, at the beginning of the quarter, we moved $12.6 billion of securities to held to maturity. This represented 1/4 of our AFS portfolio and was done when the 5- and 10-year treasury rates were below 4%. The move reduced AOCI volatility to capital due to our investment portfolio by around 50% during the first quarter.

遷往首都。本季結束時，我們的 CET1 比率為 10.44%，我們仍然認為 10.5% 是合適的近期營運水準。提醒一下，在本季初，我們將 126 億美元的證券轉為持有至到期。這占我們 AFS 投資組合的 1/4，是在 5 年期和 10 年期公債利率低於 4% 時完成的。此舉將第一季我們投資組合帶來的 AOCI 資本波動性降低了約 50%。

Our pro forma CET1 ratio, including the AOCI impact of the AFS securities portfolio is 7.8%. We expect improvement in the unrealized securities losses in our portfolio given that 60% of the AFS portfolio is in bullet or locked out securities, which provides a high degree of certainty to our principal cash flow expectations. Approximately 26% of the AOCI related to securities losses will accrete back into equity by the end of 2025 and approximately 62% by the end of 2028, assuming the forward curve plays out. Moving to our current outlook.

我們的預估 CET1 比率（包括 AFS 證券投資組合的 AOCI 影響）為 7.8%。鑑於 AFS 投資組合的 60% 是子彈或鎖定證券，我們預期投資組合中未實現證券損失將有所改善，這為我們的本金現金流量預期提供了高度確定性。假設遠期曲線發揮作用，到 2025 年底，大約 26% 與證券損失相關的 AOCI 將重新計入股本，到 2028 年底，大約 62% 將計入股本。轉向我們目前的展望。

We expect full year average total loans to be down 2% compared to 2023, consistent with our prior expectations. The decrease is primarily driven by the impact of the 2023 RWA diet on average balances as well as lower mortgage production due to the higher interest rate environment. While we expect full year average total loans to decrease, we expect average total loans in the fourth quarter of 2024 to be up 2% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, with both commercial and consumer balances up low single digits by the end of 2024.

我們預計全年平均貸款總額將比 2023 年下降 2%，這與我們先前的預期一致。這一下降主要是由於 2023 年 RWA 飲食對平均餘額的影響以及利率環境較高導致抵押貸款產出下降。雖然我們預計全年平均貸款總額將下降，但我們預計 2024 年第四季的平均貸款總額將比 2023 年第四季成長 2%，到 2024 年底商業和消費者餘額都將成長低個位數。

We are also assuming commercial revolver utilization remains stable. For the second quarter of 2024, we expect average total loan balances to be stable. We expect softness in commercial due to uncertainty on the interest rate and economic outlooks to be offset by consumer loan growth, which is expected to be up due to solar and auto originations. Our retail household growth and commercial payments growth remained robust in the first quarter, and those outcomes will drive deposit growth in 2024. However, we are mindful of potential economic and market headwinds for monetary policy.

我們也假設商業左輪手槍的使用率保持穩定。 2024 年第二季度，我們預計平均貸款餘額總額將保持穩定。我們預計，由於利率和經濟前景的不確定性而導致的商業疲軟將被消費者貸款的成長所抵消，而消費者貸款的成長預計將因太陽能和汽車的起源而上升。我們的零售家庭成長和商業支付成長在第一季保持強勁，這些結果將推動 2024 年存款成長。

Therefore, we are forecasting full year average core deposit growth of only 2% to 3% compared to our 5% growth realized in 2023. While we expect DDA migration to continue given the high absolute level of interest rates, the pace of migration has declined. If rates remain at current levels, we expect to see the DDA mix dip below 25% during the middle of the year.

因此，我們預計全年平均核心存款成長率僅為 2% 至 3%，而 2023 年實現的成長率為 5%。 。如果利率保持在當前水平，我們預計 DDA 組合將在今年年中降至 25% 以下。

Shifting to the income statement. Given the stabilization in our deposit costs and the benefit we are seeing from the repricing of our fixed rate loan book, we continue to expect the full year NII to decrease 2% to 4%. And as Tim mentioned, we expect the NII and NIM trough is behind us. This outlook is consistent with the forward curve as of early April, which projected 3 total cuts. However, our balance sheet is neutrally positioned so that even with 0 cuts in 2024, we expect stability in our NII outlook. The primary risk to our NII performance would be a reacceleration of deposit competition.

轉向損益表。鑑於我們存款成本的穩定性以及我們從固定利率貸款帳簿重新定價中看到的好處，我們繼續預計全年NII將下降2%至4%。正如 Tim 所提到的，我們預計 NII 和 NIM 低谷已經過去。這一前景與 4 月初的遠期曲線一致，該曲線預計總共削減 3 次。然而，我們的資產負債表處於中性位置，因此即使 2024 年削減 0，我們預計 NII 前景仍將穩定。我們的國家資訊基礎設施表現面臨的主要風險是存款競爭的重新加劇。

Our forecast also assumes our cash and other short-term investments, which ended the quarter at over $25 billion remained relatively stable throughout the remainder of 2024. We expect NII in the second quarter to be stable to up 1% sequentially, reflecting the impact of slowing deposit cost pressures and the benefit of our fixed rate loan repricing. Our current outlook assumes interest-bearing deposit costs, which were 291 basis points in the first quarter of 2024, would increase about 6 basis points sequentially, if we see no rate cuts.

我們的預測也假設我們的現金和其他短期投資（本季結束時超過 250 億美元）在 2024 年剩餘時間內保持相對穩定。成本壓力的減緩以及我們固定利率貸款重新定價的好處。我們目前的前景假設，如果我們不降息，2024 年第一季的計息存款成本為 291 個基點，將連續增加約 6 個基點。

We expect adjusted noninterest income to be up 1% to 2% in 2024, consistent with our prior guidance, reflecting growth in treasury management, capital market fees and wealth and asset management revenue. We expect second quarter adjusted noninterest income to be up 2% to 4% compared to the first quarter, largely reflecting higher commercial banking revenue. Consistent with our prior guidance, we expect full year adjusted noninterest expense to be up 1% compared to 2023. Our expense outlook assumes continued investments in technology with tech expense growth in the mid-single digits and sales force additions in middle market, treasury management and wealth.

我們預計 2024 年調整後非利息收入將成長 1% 至 2%，與我們先前的指導一致，反映了資金管理、資本市場費用以及財富和資產管理收入的成長。我們預計第二季調整後非利息收入將較第一季成長 2% 至 4%，這主要反映了商業銀行收入的增加。與我們先前的指引一致，我們預期全年調整後非利息支出將比2023 年成長1%。增加和財富。

We will also open 30 to 35 new branches in our higher-growth markets and close a similar number of branches in 2024. We expect second quarter total adjusted noninterest expense to be down approximately 6% compared to the first quarter due to the seasonal compensation and benefits costs in the first quarter. In total, our guide implies full year adjusted revenue to be down 1% to 2% and PPNR to decline in the 4% to 5% range.

我們也將在高成長市場開設30 至35 家新分行，並在2024 年關閉類似數量的分行。 我們預計第二季調整後非利息支出總額將比第一季下降約6%，原因是季節性季節性薪資和第一季的福利成本。總的來說，我們的指南意味著全年調整後收入將下降 1% 至 2%，PPNR 將下降 4% 至 5%。

This outcome will result in an efficiency ratio of around 57% for the full year, a modest increase relative to 2023, driven by the decrease in NII. We continue to expect positive operating leverage in the second half of 2024. Our outlook for 2024 net charge-offs remains in the 35 to 45 basis point range as credit continues to normalize, with second quarter net charge-offs also in the 35 to 45 basis point range.

這一結果將導致全年效率約為 57%，在 NII 下降的推動下，相對 2023 年略有增長。我們繼續預計2024 年下半年將出現正營運槓桿。基點範圍內基點範圍。

We expect to resume provision builds in connection with loan growth, assuming no change to the economic outlook. Loan growth and mix is expected to drive a $75 million to $100 million build for the full year, with the second quarter build being approximately $0 to $25 million. As we mentioned last quarter, our consistent and strong earnings provides us the flexibility to resume share repurchases of $300 million to $400 million in the second half of 2024, including $100 million to $200 million in the third quarter, assuming a stable economic and credit outlook and capital rules that are no worse than the current NPR. In summary, with our well-positioned balance sheet, disciplined expense and credit risk management and diversified revenue growth, we will continue to generate long-term sustainable value for our shareholders, customers, communities and employees. With that, let me turn it over to Matt to open up the call for Q&A.

假設經濟前景沒有變化，我們預計將恢復與貸款成長相關的撥備建設。貸款成長和組合預計將推動全年 7,500 萬至 1 億美元的貸款成長，第二季貸款成長約為 0 至 2,500 萬美元。正如我們上季度所提到的，假設經濟和信貸前景穩定，我們持續強勁的盈利使我們能夠靈活地在2024 年下半年恢復3 億至4 億美元的股票回購，其中包括第三季度的1 億至2 億美元和資本規則不比目前的 NPR 差。總而言之，憑藉我們穩健的資產負債表、嚴格的費用和信用風險管理以及多元化的收入成長，我們將繼續為股東、客戶、社區和員工創造長期可持續的價值。接下來，讓我將其轉交給馬特，以開始問答環節。

Thanks, Bryan. (Operator Instructions) Operator, please open the call for Q&A.

謝謝，布萊恩。 （接線生說明）接線員，請撥打電話問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Mike Mayo from Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自富國銀行的麥克梅奧。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

We can.

我們可以。

I'm Just trying to figure out how you get away with interest-bearing deposit costs going up only 1 basis point quarter-over-quarter when the group is like around up 10%. And I mean, is this sustainable? Is it due to your tech? Is it because of your Southeast expansion? What's your secret here or maybe it's just ways to bite you in future quarters?

我只是想弄清楚，當該集團的成長率約為 10% 時，您如何擺脫帶息存款成本環比僅上漲 1 個基點的情況。我的意思是，這是可持續的嗎？是因為你的技術嗎？是因為你們向東南擴張嗎？你在這裡有什麼秘密，或者也許這只是在未來幾季咬你一口的方法？

Thanks, Mike. It's Bryan. Great question. I think one of the things on this front, we very early last year, made the decision to grow deposits very aggressively. We viewed it as a very consistent theme with being focused on the long term, focused on stability and quite honestly, focused on returns. We view the worst case, we're going to generate some low-cost wholesale funding with no prepayment penalties.

謝謝，麥克。是布萊恩。很好的問題。我認為，在這方面，我們去年年初就做出了非常積極增加存款的決定。我們認為這是一個非常一致的主題，注重長期、注重穩定性，老實說，注重回報。我們認為最壞的情況是，我們將產生一些低成本的批發資金，並且沒有預付款罰金。

Best case, it gave us an opportunity to have 12 million interactions with prospects and customers. And we have a lot of confidence in our ability to win relationships when we can get our team in front of our customers. And so with that, as we've moved into this more stable environment, there clearly was some costs as we brought those promo balances in. But it gives us an ability to actually manage and recycle interest expense where we're able to pulse offers through different markets where we can basically harvest some savings and reintroduced that back into interest expense on new offers and ultimately have a lower net overall cost. We just feel like it's being very efficient with every dollar we're utilizing. As I mentioned in the guidance, there's certainly some risk that the competition can reaccelerate, but it does feel like overall deposit competition did soften at the end of last year and that continued to...

最好的情況是，它讓我們有機會與潛在客戶和現有客戶進行 1,200 萬次互動。當我們能夠讓我們的團隊站在客戶面前時，我們對贏得關係的能力充滿信心。因此，隨著我們進入這個更穩定的環境，當我們引入這些促銷餘額時，顯然會產生一些成本。基本上可以收穫一些節省，並將其重新引入新報價的利息支出中，最終獲得較低的淨總成本。我們只是覺得我們所使用的每一塊錢都非常有效率。正如我在指南中提到的，競爭確實存在一些重新加速的風險，但確實感覺去年年底整體存款競爭確實有所減弱，而且這種情況仍在繼續…

And just a follow-up. I mean, you're expanding share in the Southeast, you said you went from, what, 8% to 6% year-over-year. I mean, don't you need to price competitively and offer higher rates to gain that share?

只是後續行動。我的意思是，你們正在擴大在東南部的份額，你們說你們從去年同期的 8% 上升到了 6%。我的意思是，您不需要提供有競爭力的價格並提供更高的費率來獲得這一份額嗎？

We definitely took advantage of the fact that we have -- I think at this point with the investments that have been made down there, Mike, a higher natural share than we did existing market share, right? So we were able to use the Southeast as a mechanism to raise deposits without repricing existing relationships to the same degree that we would have if we were using those rate offers in markets where we had high existing shares.

我們確實利用了這樣一個事實：麥克，我認為目前我們已經在那裡進行的投資，自然份額比我們現有的市場份額更高，對吧？因此，我們能夠利用東南部作為籌集存款的機制，而無需對現有關係進行重新定價，其程度與我們在現有股票較高的市場中使用這些利率優惠的程度相同。

I think though what's important is that what's driving the growth in the Southeast is the household growth. And those relationships are that vast majority momentum banking relationships, which means the core deposit product is a noninterest-bearing deposit products. So the 7% growth in the Southeast when you break it apart, I think the research triangle is like 25% year-over-year.

我認為重要的是推動東南部成長的是家庭成長。而這些關係絕大多數是動量銀行關係，這意味著核心存款產品就是無利息存款產品。因此，當你將其分開時，東南部地區的成長率為 7%，我認為研究三角區的年成長率約為 25%。

Most of the major markets in Florida were in the mid- to high teens, Tampa, 11% or 12%, Broward County and North in Southeast Florida, 17%, 18% year-over-year household growth rates. So we're gaining share in a way that then allows us to make decisions about whether we want to move more of the deposit wallet. We're obviously, rate is part of it or where then we have the opportunity to introduce the fee-based add businesses on the consumer side of the equation. And then in commercial, 1/3 of the relationships that we added in treasury managers who mentioned this last quarter were payments led. So they're not driven by deposit rates or credit as the entry point.

佛羅裡達州大部分主要市場的家庭成長率都在中高位，坦帕為 11% 或 12%，布勞沃德縣和佛羅裡達州東南部北部為 17%、18%。因此，我們正在以某種方式獲得份額，然後讓我們能夠決定是否要轉移更多的存款錢包。顯然，費率是其中的一部分，或者我們有機會在消費者方面引入基於費用的添加業務。然後在商業方面，我們在上個季度提到的財務經理中添加的關係中有 1/3 是付款主導的。因此，它們並不是以存款利率或信貸為切入點來驅動的。

Our next question comes from Scott Siefers from Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Scott Siefers。

I was hoping you could spend a moment discussing non-demand trends in more detail, kind of soft for the group, though, you noted some specific states that have generated stronger middle market growth? And then maybe within the response if you could also please discuss the outlook for the specialty businesses, such as dividend that provide?

我希望您能花點時間更詳細地討論非需求趨勢，這對集團來說有點軟，不過，您注意到一些特定的州帶來了更強勁的中間市場成長嗎？然後，也許在回覆中，您是否還可以討論一下專業業務的前景，例如提供的股息？

Yes, sure. Happy I'll start that one, and if need be, Bryan can fill in here, Scott. So I mean, listen, I think in general, as the commentary we've provided about what we hear from clients is more or less the same. They are not pessimistic at that current point but they're also not leaning forward in the saddle here, whether it's capital investments or pushing forward on M&A opportunities or building inventories or otherwise, the prospect we now face with rates being higher for longer, definitely will weigh on plans.

是的，當然。很高興我會開始這個，如果需要的話，布萊恩可以在這裡填補，斯科特。所以我的意思是，聽著，我認為總的來說，因為我們從客戶那裡聽到的評論或多或少是相同的。他們目前並不悲觀，但他們也沒有在鞍座上向前傾斜，無論是資本投資還是推進併購機會或建立庫存或其他方面，我們現在面臨的利率肯定會在更長時間內走高的前景將會影響計劃。

And so I do expect that in general that if we're going to get growth, we have to get it principally through taking market share. And I think the byproduct of that is that the places where we are expecting to see growth in the second half of the year are the places where we made investments to be able to do it. So middle market C&I was strong in the first quarter. I gave a little bit of a breakout on the markets.

因此，我確實預計，總的來說，如果我們要實現成長，我們必須主要透過佔領市場份額來實現。我認為這樣做的副產品是，我們預計下半年會成長的地方正是我們進行投資以實現成長的地方。因此，中間市場 C&I 第一季表現強勁。我對市場進行了一些突破。

A driver there in the Midwest and the Southeast both is the benefit that we get, the early benefit that you see from the federal stimulus programs on manufacturing, energy transition, infrastructure and otherwise because our regions have gotten a disproportionate share of those dollars. I think in addition to that, we have a much larger sales force in the Southeast today than we did 3 years ago. And again, the byproduct of that is we will continue to see an accretion of market share attached to those investments as those RMs become fully productive. Texas has been a really nice story for us. We've been in Texas for a little more than a decade now. We have, I think it's 175 employees there, roughly.

中西部和東南部的一個驅動因素是我們獲得的好處，你可以從製造業、能源轉型、基礎設施等方面的聯邦刺激計劃中看到的早期好處，因為我們的地區在這些美元中獲得了不成比例的份額。我認為除此之外，我們今天在東南部擁有比三年前更大的銷售團隊。再次強調，隨著這些客戶經理充分發揮生產力，我們將繼續看到這些投資所帶來的市場份額不斷增加。德克薩斯州對我們來說是一個非常美好的故事。我們在德州已經有十多年了。我想我們大約有 175 名員工。

And it's a really nice complement to the strong commercial banking team that we built out in California a few years back in terms of expanding the middle market footprint. So we expect to see growth in that area. And then lastly, on the industry vertical side, aerospace, defense, transportation and TMT are the places where the pipelines have -- we're seeing some pickup in the pipelines.

就擴大中間市場足跡而言，這對我們幾年前在加州建立的強大商業銀行團隊來說是一個非常好的補充。因此，我們預計該領域會出現成長。最後，在垂直產業方面，航空航太、國防、運輸和 TMT 都是有管道的地方——我們看到管道中有一些回升。

Okay. Perfect. And then, Bryan, I was hoping you could discuss -- I know the numbers are huge here, but maybe you could discuss sort of the fluctuations in kind of reserve building versus reserve releasing outlook? I know it sounded like from your comments, it will be a little reserve build in connection with loan growth. But I think you were among the fewer sort of mid-quarter when you said maybe a little release. So just curious sort of the puts and takes as you see now.

好的。完美的。然後，布萊恩，我希望你能討論一下——我知道這裡的數字很大，但也許你可以討論儲備金建設與儲備金釋放前景的波動？我知道從你的評論來看，這將是與貸款成長相關的一點儲備金建設。但我認為，當你在季度中期說可能會發布一點消息時，你是少數人之一。正如您現在所看到的，這只是令人好奇的看跌期權和看跌期權。

Yes. Yes. Thanks, Scott. I think the main thing there is 2 items. For the guidance for the rest of the year, that is under the assumption that there is no change to the economic outlook as provided by Moody's. A big driver of the release this quarter was the economic outlook from Moody's to get better.

是的。是的。謝謝，斯科特。我認為主要有兩件事。今年剩餘時間的指引，這是基於穆迪提供的經濟前景沒有改變的假設。本季發布的一個重要推動因素是穆迪的經濟前景改善。

So that was a factor. We also had an end-of-period decrease in loans sequentially. So that was an item that drove the release as well. Next quarter, we did guide to stability on loans. So that's why we're saying kind of 0 to 25%. Mix could cause a little bit of build, but we do expect end-of-period loan growth in the second half of the year, and that's where you get the larger numbers.

所以這是一個因素。我們的期末貸款也連續減少。所以這也是推動發布的一個專案。下個季度，我們確實對貸款穩定性進行了指導。這就是為什麼我們說 0 到 25%。混合可能會導致一些成長，但我們確實預計下半年期末貸款會成長，而這正是您獲得更大數字的地方。

Question comes from Gerard Cassidy from RBC Capital.

問題來自 RBC Capital 的 Gerard Cassidy。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

We can. There we are.

我們可以。我們到了。

Bryan, just to pick up on your comments about Moody's and the outlook. Can you share with us how it's kind of evolved over the last 2 or 3 quarters? And what is their current outlook for the U.S. economy in '24? Are they still calling for a slowdown or a recession? Or are they actually in the camp now that we're going to have positive real GDP growth for 2024?

布萊恩，我想了解您對穆迪及其前景的評論。您能與我們分享過去兩三個季度的發展嗎？他們目前對 24 世紀美國經濟的展望是什麼？他們是否仍在呼籲經濟放緩或經濟衰退？或者說，既然 2024 年我們將實現實際 GDP 正成長，他們實際上就站在陣營了嗎？

Their baseline scenario has had a bit of stability. It's certainly -- I don't think it is a significant -- there's no slowdown in 2024. They continue to push out. Their baseline expectations. They've also improved their downside scenario, that's had a little bit of a bigger impact on our reserve calculation. But overall, they're now in the camp of the economy continues to be moving well. And I don't think that they're expecting a significant slowdown at this point in 2024.

他們的基線情境有一定的穩定性。當然，我認為這並不重要，2024 年不會有任何放緩。他們的基線期望。他們也改善了下行情況，這對我們的準備金計算產生了更大的影響。但總體而言，他們現在屬於經濟持續發展良好的陣營。我認為他們預計 2024 年此時經濟成長不會顯著放緩。

Got it. And then Tim, coming back to the growth, particularly in the commercial side, you gave us some very strong numbers, of course, particularly in your Southeast franchise. Can you take it a little deeper or give us a little more color. Once you bring on these clients, like you mentioned about the customers that came in this quarter based on payments. How long does it take to get them to a return that you find a passage or hurdle rate and you guys are happy with it? Is it a 12-month, 24-month period? Can you walk us through that kind of waterfall on how you get there? How many more products do they need in addition to payments or in addition to a loan to get them to your return levels?

知道了。然後蒂姆，回到成長，特別是在商業方面，當然，你給了我們一些非常強勁的數字，特別是在你的東南部特許經營權中。你能不能再深入一點或給我們多一點色彩？一旦你吸引了這些客戶，就像你提到的本季根據付款而來的客戶一樣。需要多長時間才能讓他們獲得通過或門檻率並且你們對此感到滿意的回報？是12個月還是24個月？你能帶我們穿過那種瀑布，告訴我們你是如何到達那裡的嗎？除了付款或貸款之外，他們還需要多少產品才能達到您的回報水平？

Yes, sure. So I'm going to do payments first and then we'll start with the loan because payments is easy. So the payments clients meet their return threshold essentially out of the gate, Gerard, because you don't have credit attached, which means the capital you're holding is op risk capital.

是的，當然。因此，我將先付款，然後再開始貸款，因為付款很容易。因此，傑拉德，支付客戶基本上就達到了他們的回報門檻，因為你沒有附加信用，這意味著你持有的資本是操作風險資本。

And it can take as long as 30 to 45 days to board a client, but because of some investments we made fortuitously for us, prior to the deposit crisis last spring we can board a client that provided that the client is ready to do it in 6 days now, on average. And that then allows for a very quick ramp. And that's what's supporting the -- I think it's 11% growth in commercial payments fees year-over-year, that current pace.

接待客戶可能需要長達 30 到 45 天的時間，但由於我們偶然進行了一些投資，在去年春天的存款危機之前，我們可以接待客戶，前提是客戶準備好在現在平均6天。這樣就可以實現非常快速的提升。這就是支撐——我認為商業支付費用按目前的速度同比增長 11%。

A high single-digit pace has been the goal there for a while, and it requires us to get ramped quickly every time we add a new client. On the credit side of the equation, I think the beauty of the focus that we have on granularity right now is when we move a middle-market relationship, it's generally a single bank relationship. And that means the credit comes on, it will take a month or 2 to move payables and receivables and otherwise and to get the payments flowing, but you hit the return threshold very quickly, I would say, generally well within a year on what we do in middle market.

一段時間以來，高個位數的速度一直是那裡的目標，這要求我們每次新增客戶時都要快速提升。在等式的信貸方面，我認為我們現在關注粒度的美妙之處在於，當我們轉移中間市場關係時，它通常是單一銀行關係。這意味著信貸開始，需要一到兩個月的時間來轉移應付帳款和應收帳款以及其他方面的費用，並讓付款流動起來，但是你很快就達到了回報門檻，我想說，通常在一年之內我們就可以做到這一點。

Where we are playing either at the upper end of the middle market or in Corporate Banking, the return profile can develop over a longer period because quite often then the ancillary that we're focused on is not payments it's the capital markets revenues. Where we lead, we get the returns quickly. Where we are a participant or a participant because we believe we can grow the relationship over time. And then there is a strong discipline here to go back through the book every year. We do an operating review in every region with every corporate vertical, and we have them show us the '25 lowest returning relationships in their portfolio, and there's either a relationship plan that we believe or we exit.

無論我們是在中端市場的高端還是企業銀行業務，回報狀況都可以在較長時期內發展，因為我們關注的輔助因素通常不是支付，而是資本市場收入。在我們領先的地方，我們很快就能獲得回報。我們是參與者或參與者，因為我們相信我們可以隨著時間的推移發展這種關係。然後這裡有一個嚴格的紀律，每年都要回顧這本書。我們對每個地區的每個企業垂直領域進行營運審查，讓他們向我們展示其投資組合中回報率最低的 25 個關係，我們要么相信某個關係計劃，要么退出。

And real quick just to follow up on that payment. The new customers that you have referenced. Are you -- are those customers that don't have a payments product already? Or are you taking them from a fintech company or a competitor?

並很快跟進該付款。您提到的新客戶。您是那些還沒有支付產品的客戶嗎？還是您是從金融科技公司或競爭對手那裡獲取它們的？

Yes. The disproportionate share of the clients that we are moving with the conventional payments products and managed services, are moving from another bank. So it would be either they are a business that doesn't run with any leverage and that relationship moves or they make a decision to move their payables or receivables business to Fifth Third because we can provide a superior service.

是的。我們透過傳統支付產品和託管服務轉移的客戶中，有很大一部分是從另一家銀行轉移過來的。因此，要么他們是一家沒有任何槓桿作用的企業，關係發生變化，要么他們決定將應付賬款或應收賬款業務轉移到 Fifth Third，因為我們可以提供優質的服務。

So that is a share shift. In the case of the embedded payments businesses, we are quite often helping people to build products into their software applications that didn't necessarily exist previously, or where they had a smaller bank who had agreed to provide simple services and they're looking for somebody who have more robust controls. The ability to support higher volumes. And then in the case of the work we're doing on the technology side now, a simpler process to do integration and future product development.

這就是份額轉移。就嵌入式支付業務而言，我們經常幫助人們將以前不一定存在的產品建置到他們的軟體應用程式中，或者他們有一家較小的銀行同意提供簡單的服務，並且他們正在尋找擁有更強大控制權的人。支援更高容量的能力。然後就我們現在在技術方面所做的工作而言，進行整合和未來產品開發的流程更加簡單。

Question comes from Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America.

問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I guess just one question for you, Tim. You've been fairly cautious on the macro outlook the last 12, 18 months. Has that changed today? And the reason I'm asking is I'm trying to think that up with you're messaging around buybacks both in terms of the back half and third quarter seemed quite front-footed. So just give us a sense of do you feel better about economic outlook in your markets today than you did 6 or 12 months ago. And just broadly, as a result of that, how are you thinking about capital allocation? Where should we expect some -- this level of sort of second half buybacks continuing absent growth reaccelerating next year?

我想只有一個問題要問你，提姆。過去 12、18 個月，您對宏觀前景相當謹慎。今天情況有改變嗎？我問這個問題的原因是，我試著認為，你在下半年和第三季發布的有關回購的資訊似乎相當搶先。請告訴我們您對當前市場經濟前景的感覺是否比 6 或 12 個月前更好。總的來說，因此，您如何考慮資本配置？我們應該在哪裡期待一些——這種下半年的回購水準會在明年成長重新加速的情況下繼續下去？

Yes. Ebrahim, thank you. And as you know, we're big believers in accountability here. So I actually ask Matt to go back and look through the Q&A and the scripts from prior quarters to see when we got the first question on higher for longer rates. And you were the one that asked it.

是的。易卜拉欣，謝謝你。如您所知，我們堅信問責制。因此，我實際上要求馬特回去查看之前幾個季度的問答和腳本，看看我們何時收到關於長期利率更高的第一個問題。而你就是提出這個問題的人。

So in the fourth quarter of '22 earnings call, what we said was we thought the market was overly optimistic on how quickly inflation would come down. And I don't remember what event it was last December. But the comment that I made then was that we thought either the bond market or the equity market were wrong. The question was just which one. And then if we had to guess it was bonds. So I think for certainly know now that the bond market was the side of the trade that was wrong at the beginning of the year. The factors that have influenced our more cautious outlook are pretty much exactly the same today as they were the last time we talked about it.

因此，在 22 年第四季的財報電話會議上，我們表示，我們認為市場對通膨下降的速度過於樂觀。我不記得去年十二月是什麼事件了。但我當時的評論是，我們認為債券市場或股票市場都是錯的。問題只是哪一個。如果我們必須猜測它是債券。因此，我認為現在肯定知道債券市場是今年年初錯誤的交易方。今天影響我們更謹慎的前景的因素與我們上次談論這個問題時幾乎完全相同。

Like we just view the current fiscal and monetary policies to be at odds and that the fiscal side in particular is unsustainable and inflationary over time. And the longer it goes on, right, the more that the Fed will need to remain higher for longer, which puts pressure on the long end of the curve. And then I think as a knock on to that, we know that longer rates stay elevated, the more likely it is that you see adverse consequences either in asset prices or in credit performance.

就像我們認為當前的財政和貨幣政策是不一致的，特別是財政方面隨著時間的推移是不可持續的和通貨膨脹的。而且這種情況持續的時間越長，聯準會就越需要在更長時間內保持較高水平，這給曲線的長端帶來了壓力。然後我認為作為這一點的敲門磚，我們知道利率保持在高位的時間越長，你就越有可能在資產價格或信貸表現方面看到不利後果。

The big question is just how long does that take, right? When does that play out? And that is an area where we have low conviction. So what we are trying to do and what we will always try to do in low conviction environments is be liquid be neutral and be diversified because historically, when you had a change things that slowly but suddenly, or slowly then suddenly sort of a dynamic plays out in terms of big environmental shifts.

最大的問題是這需要多長時間，對吧？那什麼時候播出？這是我們信心不足的領域。因此，我們正在努力做的事情以及在低信念環境中我們將始終嘗試做的事情是保持流動性、中立性和多元化，因為從歷史上看，當你發生變化時，事情會緩慢但突然，或緩慢然後突然發生動態變化。

On capital priorities. We do continue to expect to buy back between $300 million and $400 million in shares in the second half of the year. Our level of confidence in that just comes from the strength of the capital generation of the franchises. Bryan and I both mentioned, we have the highest ROE and the most stable ROE, if you look at it on a year-over-year basis of any of our investor peers, and that is the basis of the confidence. If the environment ends up softening and we don't see the loan growth, that will then create a capital opportunity because the capital need to support organic growth won't be there. So you do have a buffer here if we do see a turn in the environment and softening in loan growth expectations. And if not, then we have more than enough capital generation to do $300 million to $400 million in the second half of the year.

關於資本優先事項。我們確實預計下半年將回購價值 3 億至 4 億美元的股票。我們對此的信心來自於特許經營資本生成的實力。布萊恩和我都提到，如果你與我們的任何投資者同行相比，我們擁有最高的股本回報率和最穩定的股本回報率，這就是信心的基礎。如果環境最終變得疲軟並且我們看不到貸款成長，那麼這將創造資本機會，因為支持有機成長的資本需求將不存在。因此，如果我們確實看到環境發生轉變和貸款成長預期疲軟，那麼這裡確實有緩衝。如果沒有，那麼我們有足夠的資本產生，可以在今年下半年籌集 3 億至 4 億美元。

Got it. That was helpful. And to be clear, it wasn't a planted question. But the other thing that got my attention, you mentioned Texas, and obviously, you mentioned so you think about it Fifth-Third, Southeast. Just talk to us, remind us in terms of the strategy in Texas, are we opening a lot of de novo branches there? And I'm assuming there's no near-term M&A, but that does open up potential opportunities, I guess, down the road.

知道了。這很有幫助。需要明確的是，這不是一個故意提出的問題。但另一件事引起了我的注意，你提到了德克薩斯州，顯然，你提到了，所以你想想它是東南部的五三線。請與我們交談，提醒我們在德克薩斯州的策略，我們是否在那裡開設了很多新分支機構？我假設近期沒有併購，但我想，這確實會在未來帶來潛在的機會。

Yes, absolutely. So we got into Texas in 2012 when we formed our energy vertical, we have deeply experienced folks there, who have done a really excellent job. And then over the course of the past several years, added middle market offices in Houston and Dallas, where we were able to attract very strong talents from trillionaire banks, who understand the focus we have on whole relationships, and we're able to do what I think for us is a little bit unique, which is a heavy focus on C&I and then the delivery of the value-added services, whether they're capital markets or payments as opposed to a focus on either loan-only relationships or buying participations or investor real estate or otherwise.

是的，一點沒錯。因此，我們在 2012 年進入德克薩斯州，當時我們形成了能源垂直領域，我們在那裡擁有經驗豐富的人員，他們做得非常出色。然後在過去的幾年裡，我們在休士頓和達拉斯增加了中間市場辦事處，在那裡我們能夠吸引來自萬億富翁銀行的非常強大的人才，他們了解我們對整個關係的關注，並且我們能夠做我認為對我們來說有點獨特，那就是重點關注C&I，然後提供增值服務，無論是資本市場還是支付，而不是只關注貸款關係或購買參與或投資者房地產或其他。

That business now also has specialty products, so ABL, equipment leasing coverage it has coverage, dedicated treasury management. It has wealth and asset management support and then a nonpublic branch office, which allows us to do things on the pub funds side. What it does not have today is any retail banking presence. I wouldn't rule that out, but those are very large markets that we're talking about here.

該業務現在還擁有專業產品，因此 ABL、設備租賃覆蓋範圍、專門的財務管理。它擁有財富和資產管理支持，還有一個非公開分支機構，這使我們能夠在酒吧基金方面開展工作。如今它還沒有任何零售銀行業務。我不排除這種可能性，但我們在這裡討論的是非常大的市場。

They're not markets of between 0.5 million and 3 million people, which has been the expansion strategy in the Southeast. So any effort that we elect to make with branches in those markets. It will be a thing that we communicate to you in advance because we'll be talking about committing 50 to 100 branches in a single city in many cases as opposed to what we're doing in the Southeast right now, which is really building 10 to 25 at an individual market level and getting to that top 5 presence that we know we need to be able to support the primary banking model.

它們不是 50 萬至 300 萬人的市場，而這正是東南部地區的擴張策略。因此，我們選擇在這些市場的分支機構所做的任何努力。這將是我們提前與您溝通的一件事，因為在許多情況下我們將討論在一個城市設立50 到100 個分支機構，而不是我們現在在東南部所做的，實際上是建立10 個分支機構在單一市場層面上達到 25 名，並達到我們知道我們需要能夠支援主要銀行業務模式的前 5 名。

Question comes from John Pancari from Evercore.

問題來自 Evercore 的 John Pancari。

On the NII outlook of down 2% to 4%, I know the previously, your -- in the last quarter, your forecast was forward curve as well, and you had 5 or 6 cuts in that assumption and now you're sticking the forward curve, so much less. So 3 cuts phase in the forward curve now. However, your NII guide has remained intact despite that. Can you maybe just talk a little bit around the ability to keep that outlook without changing? And then -- what does that mean in terms of your margin forecast? And you indicated that has bottomed as well as NII now. But as you look for the -- through the year, what type of trajectory do you see in the margin?

關於 NII 下降 2% 至 4% 的前景，我知道之前您的預測也是遠期曲線，您在該假設中進行了 5 或 6 次削減，現在您堅持遠期曲線，少得多。所以現在 3 會切斷遠期曲線的相位。然而，儘管如此，您的 NII 指南仍然完好無損。您能否簡單談談保持這種觀點而不改變的能力？那麼，這對您的利潤預測意味著什麼？您表示現在 NII 已經觸底。但是，當你觀察這一年的情況時，你認為利潤率的軌跡是什麼樣的呢？

Yes, John, thanks for the question. It's one where the main thing that I would highlight for you is that we continue to have very strong benefits from the fixed rate asset repricing at this point. And you can see this. For us, you can see that in our actual numbers. Year-over-year, our indirect secured consumer business, which is primarily our indirect auto business. That's up 100 basis points year-over-year on a $15 billion portfolio.

是的，約翰，謝謝你的提問。我要向大家強調的主要一點是，我們目前仍從固定利率資產重新定價中獲得非常大的好處。你可以看到這一點。對於我們來說，您可以從我們的實際數字中看到這一點。與去年同期相比，我們的間接擔保消費者業務主要是我們的間接汽車業務。在 150 億美元的投資組合中，這一數字年增了 100 個基點。

So $150 million of annualized benefit in a year where we were actually constraining production in auto because of the RWA diet. So those businesses we have, those medium-term fixed rate lending assets, whether it's the auto business, RV marine, whether it's solar provide, generate a lot of power for us in terms of earnings capacity. Over the next 12 months, we'll have enough fixed rate assets reprice. That will generate $350 million, $400 million plus of annualized NII benefit.

因此，在我們實際上因 RWA 限製而限制汽車生產的一年中，我們獲得了 1.5 億美元的年化收益。因此，我們擁有的那些業務，那些中期固定利率貸款資產，無論是汽車業務、房車船舶業務、無論是太陽能供應，都為我們的盈利能力提供了大量動力。在接下來的 12 個月裡，我們將有足夠的固定利率資產重新定價。這將產生 3.5 億美元，再加上 4 億美元的年度 NII 收益。

So even in a higher rate environment and with the curve selling off some that benefit is increasing for us. So that is a good outcome for us that helps support and offset some continued migration from a DDA perspective as well as some continued forecasted increases in deposit costs overall. We're not making any assumptions that the deposit environment and the competition and the increasing cost is over, but it is definitely moderating.

因此，即使在利率較高的環境下，隨著曲線拋售一些產品，我們的收益也在增加。因此，這對我們來說是一個很好的結果，從 DDA 的角度來看，有助於支持和抵消一些持續的移民以及整體存款成本的一些持續預測成長。我們並沒有假設存款環境、競爭和成本增加已經結束，但它肯定正在放緩。

From a NIM perspective, we do expect positive NIM from here as well. And we're only talking about a couple few basis points a quarter trajectory, a big wild card on the magnitude of the NIM increases just ultimately is where the cash position ends up. If we continue to have really strong performance out of our deposit franchise above the 2% to 3% that we're guiding to, NIM will be a little bit lower, but NII will be better as a result of that. But overall, we feel really good about the absolute positioning.

從淨利差的角度來看，我們確實預期淨利差也會出現正面的變化。我們只討論了季度軌跡中的幾個基點，淨利差增加幅度的一個很大的不確定因素最終是現金部位的最終結果。如果我們的存款特許經營權繼續保持真正強勁的表現，高於我們指導的 2% 至 3%，NIM 會稍微低一點，但 NII 會因此而更好。但總的來說，我們對絕對定位感覺非常好。

Got it. Very helpful. And then separately on the credit side, NPAs up a bit this quarter. If you could just give us a little bit of color on what you're seeing in terms of credit migration and maybe by sector, we're hearing a bit of stress on the transportation sector, aviation credit impacted some of the names as well as some banks flagging health care.

知道了。很有幫助。另外，在信貸方面，不良資產本季略有上升。如果您能給我們一些關於信貸遷移方面以及行業方面的情況的信息，我們聽到運輸業、航空信貸以及一些行業受到了一些壓力。

So if you could just give us a little bit of color there and maybe also your confidence in your 35 to 45 basis point charge-off guidance?

那麼，您能否給我們一些信息，以及您對 35 至 45 個基點沖銷指導的信心？

Yes. Great. Thanks. Great question. So the $59 million increase that we saw in NPAs this quarter, $49 million of it was in commercial, 2 names. Not in the industries that you had indicated. We had a retail trade name and a senior living trade name. So we are continuing to see stress on the health care side, specifically in the senior living. It's not a huge portfolio for us, and we think we have our hands around it, continue to review that portfolio on a consistent basis. So not overly concerned. The thing that we have been consistently saying and we continue to see is we just -- we are not seeing trends by geography, by product, by industry.

是的。偉大的。謝謝。很好的問題。因此，本季我們看到 NPA 增加了 5,900 萬美元，其中 4,900 萬美元是商業名稱，2 個名稱。不在您所指出的行業中。我們有一個零售商號碼和一個老年生活商號。因此，我們繼續看到醫療保健方面的壓力，特別是在老年人生活方面。這對我們來說並不是一個巨大的投資組合，我們認為我們已經掌握了它，並繼續在一致的基礎上審查該投資組合。所以不必過度擔心。我們一直在說並且繼續看到的是我們只是——我們沒有看到按地理位置、按產品、按行業劃分的趨勢。

Our issues that have bubbled up have been more episodic and we've been able to deal with those episodic events on a quarter-by-quarter basis. So I am not expecting to see a linear increase in our NPAs. To your last question, I still feel very good about the guidance Bryan talked about earlier, $35 million to $45 million for the year based on, again, Tim mentioned, our commercial real estate portfolio continues to perform very, very well.

我們出現的問題更加偶發，我們能夠按季度處理這些偶發事件。因此，我預計我們的不良資產不會線性增加。對於你的最後一個問題，我仍然對 Bryan 之前談到的指導感到非常滿意，今年 3500 萬至 4500 萬美元，基於蒂姆再次提到，我們的商業房地產投資組合繼續表現非常非常好。

The rest of our C&I borrowers continue to perform well. They've done a nice job with expense cutting. They've done a nice job passing along pricing. They're operating about as efficiently as we've seen them. We're taking a cautious view as well, not sure where rates are going to go. So we're not seeing a lot of CapEx. But overall, we like the behaviors of our C&I portfolio, and I think the results of our commercial real estate portfolio speak for themselves.

我們的其他工商業借款人繼續表現良好。他們在削減開支方面做得很好。他們在定價方面做得很好。他們的運作效率與我們所見過的一樣高。我們也持謹慎態度，不確定利率將走向何方。所以我們沒有看到太多的資本支出。但總的來說，我們喜歡工商業投資組合的表現，而且我認為我們商業房地產投資組合的結果不言而喻。

Our next question comes from Ken Usdin in from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

Just want to follow up with Bryan. Bryan, you mentioned the annualized dollar impact from those fixed rate securities and loans. I think you said previously that was $12 billion. I'm just wondering if you have an understanding of what you know, we'll be also repricing in '25. And I would assume that would also then be incremental to that annualized benefit you referred to earlier.

只是想跟進布萊恩。布萊恩，您提到了這些固定利率證券和貸款對美元的年化影響。我想你之前說過那是 120 億美元。我只是想知道您是否了解您所知道的內容，我們也將在 25 年重新定價。我認為這也將是您之前提到的年化收益的增量。

That's right. We do have a similar amount that will happen in '25. And actually, we've been in the range of $4 billion to $5 billion a quarter repricing overall in the portfolio between loans and investment portfolio. The investment portfolio has actually been in, say, a $600 million to $800 million a quarter range.

這是正確的。 25 年我們確實會發生類似的情況。事實上，我們每季對貸款和投資組合之間的投資組合進行整體重新定價，金額在 40 億至 50 億美元之間。比如說，投資組合其實每季在 6 億至 8 億美元之間。

That number is actually going to start accelerating later this year as we start to get some maturities on the bullet lockout structures. We're expecting over $1 billion in the fourth quarter and a pace similar to that in 2025. So this benefit and the repricing is going to continue and actually pick up a little bit. And that's where the higher for longer environment, as long as the front end stays relatively stable because that will help keep deposit costs stable. The higher long end will actually help and contribute to higher income over time.

隨著子彈鎖定結構開始到期，這個數字實際上將在今年稍後開始加速。我們預計第四季度的營收將超過 10 億美元，成長速度與 2025 年類似。只要前端保持相對穩定，這就是長期環境中較高的地方，因為這將有助於保持存款成本穩定。隨著時間的推移，較高的長期目標實際上有助於並有助於提高收入。

Okay. And then also, you mentioned keeping the cash and securities at around the same level. Can you talk about just how you're preparing for liquidity rules and what that will mean in terms of how you think about the mix of across portfolios and amount of cash you want to keep?

好的。然後，您還提到將現金和證券保持在同一水平。您能談談您是如何準備流動性規則的嗎？

Yes. We are there today for whatever comes out from a liquidity rule perspective. So we will not have to make any material changes to the balance sheet compared to what we have today. What will happen over time as the loss position on the investment portfolio burns off. That will actually increase the liquidity contribution from the investment portfolio, so we can take the cash -- start to take the cash position down.

是的。我們今天在這裡等待從流動性規則角度來看的任何結果。因此，與今天相比，我們不必對資產負債表進行任何重大變更。隨著時間的推移，隨著投資組合的損失頭寸消失，會發生什麼。這實際上會增加投資組合的流動性貢獻，這樣我們就可以拿走現金——開始減少現金部位。

Also, we will start to remix the composition of our investment portfolio to continue to ship more into level 1 securities, which will also help us take the cash position down over time. So it will be just a natural transition, where the balance sheet will get a little bit lighter from a cash and securities perspective as time passes. But we're very well positioned for any pending liquidity rules.

此外，我們將開始重新組合投資組合的組成，以繼續將更多資金投入一級證券，這也將有助於我們隨著時間的推移減少現金部位。因此，這將是一個自然的過渡，隨著時間的推移，從現金和證券的角度來看，資產負債表將變得更加寬鬆。但我們對於任何懸而未決的流動性規則都處於有利地位。

Next question comes from Vivek Juneja from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Vivek Juneja。

Tim and Bryan, a question for you on the Southeast. How much do you have in deposits there now? And what are you doing in terms of consumer side and loans? Where do those stand relative to deposits?

提姆和布萊恩，問你們一個關於東南部的問題。你現在那裡有多少存款？你們在消費方面和貸款方面做了什麼？這些相對於存款而言處於什麼位置？

Sure. Let me start on the consumer loan side, and then Bryan will fill in on the detail on deposits. So the balance sheet in the Southeast on the consumer side for the core banking relationships as a net funding provider for us, Vivek, the sort of general development of a customer relationship is acquire the primary DDA via direct marketing and the work that we do around the new branches as we build them. The payments products are an important part of primacy. So credit card would come after that. And then from there, you have the episodic opportunities, whether that's home equity because there's some improvement going on or mortgage, although there obviously hasn't been a lot of that in the environment over the course of the past few years.

當然。讓我從消費貸款方面開始，然後布萊恩將填寫存款的詳細資料。因此，東南部消費者方面的資產負債表，作為我們 Vivek 的淨融資提供者，建立了核心銀行關係，客戶關係的一般發展是透過直接行銷和我們所做的工作獲得主要的 DDA我們建立新的分支機構。支付產品是首要地位的重要組成部分。所以信用卡會在那之後出現。然後從那裡開始，你就有了偶爾的機會，無論是房屋淨值，因為有一些改善正在進行，還是抵押貸款，儘管在過去幾年中，環境中顯然沒有很多這樣的機會。

The auto business, the dividend solar finance business, in particular, do have strong production in Florida just because of the size of the population relative to the other states where we do business, but they're really unconnected to deposits. Bryan, do you want to talk about the individual markets and deposit balances?

汽車業務，特別是股息太陽能金融業務，在佛羅裡達州確實有強勁的產量，只是因為相對於我們開展業務的其他州而言人口規模較大，但它們實際上與存款無關。布萊恩，您想談談個別市場和存款餘額嗎？

Yes, absolutely. We've got about -- overall about $31 billion in deposits in the Southeast now about over half of that relates to the consumer franchise. So we're doing very strong in consumer on that front. And as Tim mentioned, we are -- it is a net provider of funding. We only have about $18 billion worth of loans in the Southeast.

是的，一點沒錯。我們在東南部總共擁有約 310 億美元的存款，其中一半以上與消費者特許經營有關。因此，我們在這方面在消費者方面做得非常強大。正如提姆所提到的，我們是——它是資金的淨提供者。我們在東南部只有價值約 180 億美元的貸款。

And I would imagine most of those are on the commercial side, as Tim said, at this point.

正如蒂姆所說，我想其中大部分都是商業方面的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes, absolutely.

是的，一點沒錯。

Separate question. Solar. I noticed your growth has slowed as you've been indicating any update on what you're thinking in terms of originations, loan growth as well as credit?

單獨提問。太陽的。我注意到你們的成長已經放緩，因為你們一直在表明你們在起源、貸款成長以及信貸方面的想法是否有任何更新？

Yes. Well, I'll start, and we'll get Greg to answer on credit. We are still #2, right? We are the #2 largest financer in the residential solar market. And the byproduct of that is our growth opportunity has much to do with the market size as it does anything else at this stage.

是的。好吧，我先開始，我們會讓格雷格賒帳回答。我們還是第二名，對吧？我們是住宅太陽能市場第二大融資方。其副產品是我們的成長機會與市場規模有很大關係，就像現階段的其他事情一樣。

And right now, with rates being high, and with net metering having been rolled back in a couple of places, you just have an affordability issue, where the cost of purchasing energy off the grid is cheaper than it would be to finance solar installations. I think the other dynamic is that as rates rise, and this is -- I think, ironically, it's the same phenomenon in auto is as rates rise, the mix of leased financed, installation shifts toward leases, which means as a lender, solar is going to be down, I think, the estimate from the industry is like 13%, 14% this year, Vivek, in terms of total installations.

目前，由於電費很高，而且一些地方的淨計量已經回滾，你只面臨一個負擔能力問題，即從電網購買能源的成本比資助太陽能安裝的成本便宜。我認為另一個動態是，隨著利率上升，諷刺的是，這與汽車行業的現象相同，隨著利率上升，租賃融資、安裝轉向租賃，這意味著作為貸款人，太陽能我認為，就總安裝量而言，產業估計今年會下降13%、14%，Vivek。

You're going to see a more significant decline in the financing volumes. So we built our plan around being down 30% year-over-year, and I think in a higher for longer environment, that's probably right. If it's any softer than that, it's just going to be a byproduct of this continued dynamic on the lease versus finance and doesn't make sense to -- can you offset energy costs on a 0 basis with the cost of the equipment that's being installed. Greg?

你會看到融資量出現更顯著的下降。因此，我們制定的計劃是同比下降 30%，我認為在長期較高的環境中，這可能是正確的。如果比這更軟的話，它只是租賃與融資持續動態的副產品，並且沒有意義——你能用正在安裝的設備的成本來抵消能源成本嗎？格雷格？

And on the credit side, the solar dividend credit losses are performing right as we model right around 1.3%. We actually think we'll run a little bit better for the remainder of this year, early volume within the portfolio is seasoning. So we saw a little bit of that seasonality this quarter. But we feel good about what we're seeing, and we certainly have more optimistic to you for the rest of this year.

在信貸方面，太陽能股利信貸損失表現良好，我們的模型約為 1.3%。實際上，我們認為今年剩餘時間我們的運作會更好一些，投資組合中的早期交易量正在成長。因此，本季我們看到了一些季節性因素。但我們對所看到的情況感到滿意，我們對今年剩餘時間的情況肯定更加樂觀。

And then just on the volume front for originations for solar, and I know this question came up earlier as well. We're probably talking closer to $1.7 billion to $2 billion of originations this year, just given the dynamics that Tim mentioned earlier.

然後就太陽能起源的捲面而言，我知道這個問題也早些時候出現過。考慮到提姆之前提到的動態，我們今年討論的發起金額可能接近 17 億至 20 億美元。

Next question comes from Manan Gosalia from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的馬南·戈薩利亞。

I wanted to touch on deposit competition. You compete with several of the money center banks in several markets. How are you thinking about deposit competition as QT continues as RRP balances continue to decline and the focus shifts back to bank deposits? How do you think deposit competition will trend in that environment?

我想談談存款競爭。您在多個市場與多家貨幣中心銀行競爭。隨著 QT 持續、建議零售價餘額持續下降以及焦點重新轉向銀行存款，您如何看待存款競爭？您認為在這種環境下存款競爭將如何發展？

We think that is certainly a big question for us and for the industry, and it's one of the items why we highlighted that our NII guidance at this point is less rate environment dependent and more dependent on just the overall level of deposit competition. As you mentioned, we do compete against the money center banks as well as a lot of regionals across our different markets. In the Midwest, we compete against JPMorgan primarily.

我們認為這對我們和整個行業來說無疑是一個大問題，這也是我們強調我們目前的 NII 指導較少依賴於利率環境而更多地依賴存款競爭整體水平的原因之一。正如您所提到的，我們確實與貨幣中心銀行以及不同市場的許多區域銀行競爭。在中西部，我們主要與摩根大通競爭。

They're the #1 bank in most of our markets, we're the #2 bank in those markets. So we see them and face off against them. And obviously, in the Southeast, we do Bank of America wells in Truist, so very significant competition. In general, it does feel like the broader liquidity environment has stabilized versus what we saw midyear last year. So even with a little bit of weakness from an overall industry deposit perspective, at this point, unless something really breaks in the liquidity system.

他們是我們大多數市場中排名第一的銀行，我們是這些市場中排名第二的銀行。所以我們看到他們並與他們對抗。顯然，在東南部，我們在 Truist 有美國銀行的油井，因此競爭非常激烈。總的來說，與去年年中相比，更廣泛的流動性環境確實已經穩定下來。因此，即使從整個產業存款的角度來看，目前有一點疲軟，除非流動性系統真的出現問題。

We're not expecting the significant food fight for cash that happened last year as people were just scrambling to show that they had a stable balance sheet. But it does mean that over time that you're likely to see just a potential increase in competition. The big counter for this is really going to be whether or not loan growth shows up or not. If there's no loan growth for the industry, there's not going to be a need for significant competition for deposits. And so broadly speaking, we think competition probably stays lighter than what we saw last year, especially in a stable environment, also at a time where we think the whole industry is going to focused on maintaining profitability. So we do think that will moderate some of the pressures. But the bottoming of the RRP and potential decreases in bank reserves as QT continues, certainly could create some pressure in the medium term.

我們預計不會發生去年發生的重大糧食爭奪戰，因為人們只是爭先恐後地表明他們擁有穩定的資產負債表。但這確實意味著，隨著時間的推移，您可能會看到競爭的潛在加劇。對此的重要衡量因素實際上是貸款成長是否出現。如果該行業沒有貸款成長，就不需要對存款進行激烈的競爭。從廣義上講，我們認為競爭可能比我們去年看到的要輕，尤其是在穩定的環境下，我們認為整個產業將專注於維持獲利能力。所以我們確實認為這會減輕一些壓力。但隨著 QT 的持續，建議零售價觸底以及銀行準備金可能下降，肯定會在中期造成一些壓力。

Got it. And then maybe a bigger picture question Tim, in your annual letter, you talked about rationalizing the business model in response to the tougher regulatory environment. You use the RWA diet as an example. Bigger picture, what do you think the evolution of the model for Fifth Third and other banks of your size will look like going forward? Maybe there's more partnerships with private credit or there's a pivot to more fee-based businesses. But in what ways will Fifth Third look different in 5 or 7 years from now versus today?

知道了。然後也許是一個更大的問題蒂姆，在您的年度信件中，您談到了合理化商業模式以應對更嚴格的監管環境。您以 RWA 飲食為例。從更大的角度來看，您認為 Fifth Third 和其他同等規模的銀行的模式未來會如何演變？也許與私人信貸有更多的合作關係，或轉向更多的收費業務。但 5 到 7 年後的 Fifth Third 與現在相比會有哪些不同？

Yes. So a few things just on the industry in general and Fifth Third on that front. One, we've got to find a way to reignite growth in labor productivity, right? I think that's true of the economy in total, but you'd see the same thing if you look at the banking sector, is despite all the investments that have been made in technology over the course of the past 10, 15 years.

是的。以下是關於整個行業的一些事情以及這方面的第五個三分之一。第一，我們必須找到一種方法來重新激發勞動生產力的成長，對嗎？我認為整個經濟都是如此，但如果你看看銀行業，你會看到同樣的情況，儘管過去 10 年、15 年在技術方面進行了所有投資。

Aside from branch rationalizations, you can't really point to a lot of examples where there were big productivity lifts. So whether it's the cloud platforms we're putting in where we should be able to drive more straight-through processing or the use of AI or otherwise, overheads have to come down. That is going to be an important point of focus for us through the value streams and through the tech modernization work that we're doing.

除了分公司合理化之外，你無法真正舉出許多生產力大幅提升的例子。因此，無論是我們放置的雲端平台應該能夠推動更直接的處理，還是使用人工智慧或其他方式，開銷都必須降低。這將成為我們透過價值流和我們正在進行的技術現代化工作的一個重要關注點。

I think secondarily, there are going to be businesses that regional banks or community banks just don't compete in, in the future, if there isn't a rationalization of the way that the noncredit wallet is shared and large public companies would be a good example of that space, right? We did our diet last year. We walked away from companies where we were an important lender, but we weren't getting a fair share of the ancillaries because they were being consumed by the money center banks. And that's either going to require the money centers to make larger individual commitments in order to justify the ancillary or it's going to require that the treasures that those companies reallocate the wallet proportionately. So -- and my own view is, at least initially, you're going to see a shift there.

我認為其次，如果非信貸錢包的共享方式沒有合理化，那麼未來將會有一些區域銀行或社區銀行無法參與的業務，而大型上市公司將成為一個這個空間的一個很好的例子，對吧？去年我們節食了。我們離開了那些我們是重要貸款人的公司，但我們沒有得到公平的輔助資金份額，因為它們被貨幣中心銀行消耗。這要么要求貨幣中心做出更大的個人承諾，以證明輔助資金的合理性，要么要求這些公司按比例重新分配錢包的財富。所以——我自己的觀點是，至少在最初，你會看到那裡的轉變。

I think private credit is going to be an interesting one to watch. Like there isn't a great track record historically for people growing as fast as private credit is growing and completely avoiding mistakes. I also have a hard time figuring out what the comparative advantages there that's defensible if the model works. And I would prefer always since we are a good deposit gathering institution, that we'd be able, if there's good money to be made and the valuations that are being placed on these credit fund providers, certainly suggest there is that we'll be holding those assets on balance sheet.

我認為私人信貸將是一個值得關注的領域。就像歷史上沒有一個良好的記錄表明人們的增長速度與私人信貸的增長速度一樣快並且完全避免錯誤。我也很難弄清楚如果模型有效的話，那裡有哪些比較優勢是可以防禦的。我總是更願意，因為我們是一家優秀的存款收集機構，如果有很多錢可以賺，並且對這些信貸基金提供者的估值，我們肯定能夠在資產負債表上持有這些資產。

So that has not been an immediate point of focus for us. And then lastly, as we've talked about in the past, it's hard to imagine that whether it's 1,000 or 2,000 or 3,000. It's hard to imagine that there are going to be 4,000 banks. And that you're just going to have to see some consolidation and people retreating to places where they have density and focusing on markets where they can neutralize the scale advantages that the large banks have because you're the same size in the area where you compete versus being 7, 8, 9, 10 ranked in every market across the U.S., which is just fundamentally less defensible business strategy.

因此，這並不是我們立即關注的焦點。最後，正如我們過去談到的，很難想像它是 1,000、2,000 還是 3,000。很難想像會有 4,000 家銀行。你將不得不看到一些整合，人們撤退到密度較高的地方，並專注於可以抵消大型銀行所具有的規模優勢的市場，因為你所在地區的規模相同。 、8、9、10 名的公司進行競爭，這從根本上來說是缺乏防禦性的商業策略。

Next question comes from Christopher Marinac from Janney.

下一個問題來自 Janney 的 Christopher Marinac。

I just wanted to ask about possible changes on risk grades in criticized and classifieds. I know it might be premature to see anything upgraded, but just curious on the path of those that you saw and how that may evolve this year?

我只是想詢問批評和分類廣告中風險等級可能發生的變化。我知道現在看到任何升級可能還為時過早，但只是對您所看到的那些道路以及今年可能如何發展感到好奇？

Yes, it's a good question. So again, probably not going to be linear. It's going to be lumpy and has been for us in the past, given current previous comments I made about episodic, more episodic events and the fact that we're just not seeing trending by industry, by geography. And so I would expect it to continue to be lumpy. But as I said earlier, we're still liking the way our C&I portfolio is behaving.

是的，這是一個好問題。再說一次，可能不會是線性的。考慮到我之前對偶發事件、更多偶發事件的評論以及我們沒有看到按行業、按地域劃分的趨勢這一事實，這將是不穩定的，過去對我們來說也是如此。所以我預計它會繼續不穩定。但正如我之前所說，我們仍然喜歡我們的 C&I 投資組合的表現。

We like our commercial real estate track record, an awful lot. But with higher for longer, maybe higher forever interest rates, we're going to continue to see stress and we're going to continue to proactively manage the portfolio as we have. We're not doing deep dives because on an ongoing basis, we are stressing the C&I portfolio by 200 basis points. We're getting out ahead of any potential issues, but that could lead to some criticized assets a special mention. We're doing the same thing, do something on the commercial real estate side, exit stress testing. So we're taking a look at maturities, and we're stressing by 100 basis points, a forward curve on what that loan looks like at maturity.

我們非常喜歡我們的商業房地產業績記錄。但隨著利率持續升高、甚至永遠升高，我們將繼續面臨壓力，我們將繼續積極管理投資組合。我們沒有進行深入研究，因為我們持續對 C&I 投資組合施加 200 個基點的壓力。我們正在解決任何潛在問題，但這可能會導致一些受到批評的資產受到特別提及。我們也在做同樣的事情，在商業房地產方面做一些事情，退出壓力測試。因此，我們正在考慮到期日，並強調 100 個基點，即貸款到期時的遠期曲線。

And so if we see weakness there, we could see an elevation in criticized assets, but 99% of our accruing criticized assets are current, right? And if you include our nonaccrual, we're still 93%, 94% current within that portfolio. So we'll see episodic kind of lumpiness for the remainder of the year.

因此，如果我們看到那裡的弱點，我們可能會看到批評資產的增加，但我們累積的批評資產中 99% 都是流動的，對嗎？如果算上我們的非應計費用，我們仍然有 93%、94% 的資產屬於目前投資組合。因此，我們將在今年剩餘時間內看到間歇性的波動。

Great. And just a quick follow-up. I mean the loss content ultimately is reflected in the reserves. So that would have to change a lot for you to kind of change your guide on reserve overall.

偉大的。只是快速跟進。我的意思是損失內容最終反映在準備金中。因此，您必須做出很大的改變才能改變您的整體儲備指南。

Exactly.

確切地。

Thanks for that, Chris. I think we don't have any other questions in the queue, but we'd be remiss if we didn't say congratulations to Erica and her family since she wasn't able to join us today before we wrap up our call.

謝謝你，克里斯。我想我們隊列中沒有任何其他問題，但如果我們不向艾麗卡和她的家人表示祝賀，那就是我們的失職，因為她今天在我們結束通話之前無法加入我們。

Thanks, Tim. And thanks, Elie, and thanks, everyone, for joining for your interest in Fifth Third. Please contact the Investor Relations department if you have any other follow-up questions. Elie, you may now disconnect the call.

謝謝，蒂姆。感謝 Elie，感謝大家對 Fifth Third 的關注。如有其他後續問題，請聯絡投資者關係部門。 Elie，您現在可以掛斷電話了。

Thank you for everyone attending the call today. We all hope you have a wonderful day. Stay safe.

感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。我們都希望您度過愉快的一天。注意安全。