(FITBO) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Rob, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Fifth Third Bancorp Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Chris Doll, Head of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

早上好。我叫羅布，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時此刻，我謹歡迎大家參加 Third Bancorp 2023 年第二季度第五次收益電話會議。 （操作員指示）克里斯·多爾（Chris Doll），投資者關係主管，您可以開始會議了。

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Fifth Third Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. This morning, our President and CEO, Tim Spence; and CFO; Jamie Leonard, will provide an overview of our second quarter results and outlook. Our Treasurer; Bryan Preston and Chief Credit Officer; Greg Schroeck, have also joined the Q&A portion of the call.

大家，早安。歡迎參加 2023 年第三季度第五次收益電話會議。今天早上，我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Tim Spence；和首席財務官；傑米·倫納德 (Jamie Leonard) 將概述我們第二季度的業績和前景。我們的財務主管；布萊恩·普雷斯頓 (Bryan Preston) 兼首席信貸官； Greg Schroeck 也參加了電話會議的問答部分。

Please review the cautionary statements on our materials, which can be found in our earnings release and presentation. These materials contain information regarding the use of non-GAAP measures, reconciliations to the GAAP results, and forward-looking statements about Fifth Third's performance. These statements speak only as of July 20, 2023, and Fifth Third undertakes no obligation to update them. Following prepared remarks by Tim and Jamie, we will open the call for questions.

請查看我們材料中的警示聲明，這些聲明可以在我們的收益發布和演示中找到。這些材料包含有關非公認會計準則衡量標準的使用、公認會計準則結果的調節以及有關 Fifth Third 業績的前瞻性陳述的信息。這些聲明僅截至 2023 年 7 月 20 日，Fifth Third 不承擔更新義務。在蒂姆和傑米準備好的發言之後，我們將開始提問。

With that, let me turn it over to Tim.

接下來，讓我把它交給蒂姆。

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. Before we get to the quarter, I'd like to welcome our new Chief Credit Officer, Greg Schroeck to the call. Greg has been a part of Fifth Third for 35 years, and during that time, we've seen more than a few credit cycles. He previously held leadership roles in both credit risk and the line of business, including serving as our Chief Commercial Credit Officer for several years and is our Head of Leasing, asset-based lending and structured finance. We're fortunate to have him as part of the Fifth Third executive team.

謝謝克里斯，大家早上好。在我們進入本季度之前，我想歡迎我們的新任首席信貸官 Greg Schroeck 參加電話會議。 Greg 加入 Fifth Third 已有 35 年了，在此期間，我們經歷了多次信貸週期。他此前曾在信用風險和業務領域擔任領導職務，包括擔任我們的首席商業信貸官多年，並且是我們的租賃、資產貸款和結構性融資主管。我們很幸運讓他成為 Fifth Third 執行團隊的一員。

Despite heightened market volatility over the past 4 months, Fifth Third has delivered consistent top quartile financial results while investing strategically to position the bank for the long term. Our operating priorities have been and continue to be stability, profitability and growth in that order.

儘管過去 4 個月市場波動加劇，Fifth Third 的財務業績始終名列前茅，同時進行戰略性投資，以實現銀行的長期定位。我們的經營重點一直是並將繼續是穩定、盈利和增長。

Earlier today, we reported second quarter earnings per share of $0.87, excluding items noted in the release. a 10% increase compared to the year ago quarter. Adjusted revenue increased 9%, reflecting our diverse fee sources and resilient balance sheet. Expenses increased 4%, excluding items noted in the release. And credit quality was strong with net charge-offs and early-stage delinquencies remaining below normalized levels.

今天早些時候，我們報告第二季度每股收益為 0.87 美元，不包括新聞稿中提到的項目。與去年同期相比增長 10%。調整後收入增長 9%，反映出我們多樣化的費用來源和富有彈性的資產負債表。費用增加了 4%，不包括新聞稿中提到的項目。信貸質量強勁，淨沖銷和早期拖欠率仍低於正常水平。

Our key return metrics improved even as we increased our capital levels and credit reserves. We generated an adjusted return on assets of over 1.2% and adjusted return on tangible common equity, excluding AOCI, of 15.4%, and an efficiency ratio below 55% for the quarter. These will be important bellwether metrics for all banks as we adapt to impending regulatory changes. Deposits continue to be in focus for the entire sector in the second quarter. Fifth Third's total period-end deposits increased 1% sequentially and increased 2% year-over-year as compared to a 5% decline for the H8 over the same period. Our Consumer Banking and Commercial Banking business segments both generated period-end deposit growth.

即使我們增加了資本水平和信貸儲備，我們的關鍵回報指標也有所改善。本季度，我們的調整後資產回報率超過 1.2%，調整後有形普通股回報率（不包括 AOCI）為 15.4%，效率比率低於 55%。當我們適應即將發生的監管變化時，這些將成為所有銀行的重要風向標指標。第二季度，存款繼續成為整個行業的焦點。 Fifth Third的期末存款總額環比增長1%，同比增長2%，而H8同期則下降5%。我們的個人銀行業務和商業銀行業務板塊均實現了期末存款增長。

Given the year-over-year decline in deposit system-wide, it's reasonable to ask how Fifth Third has continued to outperform. The answers are deliberate multiyear strategies to expand distribution in our Southeast markets to launch innovative operational deposit-oriented solutions like Momentum Banking and our treasury management offerings, and our sustained focus on primary household growth. We have added over 70 de novo branches in our Southeast footprint since 2019, more than any other bank except JPMorgan. As a portfolio, these branches are outperforming their original business cases on deposit production with several producing at a rate of 200% to 300% of plan.

鑑於整個系統的存款同比下降，我們有理由問Fifth Third如何繼續跑贏大市。答案是深思熟慮的多年戰略，擴大我們在東南市場的分銷，推出創新的、以存款為導向的運營解決方案，如動量銀行和我們的資金管理產品，以及我們對主要家庭增長的持續關注。自 2019 年以來，我們在東南部新增了 70 多家分行，數量超過除摩根大通以外的任何其他銀行。作為一個投資組合，這些分支機構在存款生產方面的表現優於其最初的業務案例，其中一些分支機構的存款生產率為計劃的 200% 至 300%。

In Consumer, we generated year-over-year net household growth of 3% once again this quarter, continuing a strong multiyear trend and punctuated by 7% year-on-year growth in the Southeast and continued success in our Momentum Banking product. In Commercial, we have added a record number of new quality middle-market relationships this year, up 30% from 2022. Our embedded payments business, Newline, has also been a strong catalyst for deposit growth.

在消費者領域，本季度我們的家庭淨同比增長率再次達到 3%，延續了多年來強勁的趨勢，東南部地區的同比增長率達到 7%，並且我們的 Momentum 銀行產品繼續取得成功。在商業領域，我們今年新增的優質中間市場關係數量創歷史新高，比 2022 年增長了 30%。我們的嵌入式支付業務 Newline 也是存款增長的強大催化劑。

We expect the environment in the back half of the year to remain highly competitive for deposits. While we will continue to protect our house relationships and manage to a strong and stable liquidity profile, we will not match a rational pricing competition in a way that prioritizes headline growth over profitability.

我們預計下半年的存款環境仍將保持高度競爭。雖然我們將繼續保護我們的公司關係並管理強大而穩定的流動性狀況，但我們不會以優先考慮整體增長而非盈利能力的方式進行理性的定價競爭。

Turning to pending regulation. We are taking steps to adapt our balance sheet in anticipation capital and liquidity requirements across the industry. We finished the second quarter with a CET1 ratio of 9.5%, having accreted around 90 basis points of capital from retained earnings over the course of the past year. We are balancing 3 capital priorities, continuing to build capital on an accelerated pace, supporting a dividend increase in the third quarter subject to Board approval and supporting clients to drive organic growth.

轉向待定的監管。我們正在採取措施調整我們的資產負債表，以適應整個行業的預期資本和流動性要求。第二季度結束時，我們的 CET1 比率為 9.5%，去年從留存收益中積累了約 90 個基點的資本。我們正在平衡三個資本優先事項，繼續加快建設資本，支持在董事會批准的情況下在第三季度增加股息，並支持客戶推動有機增長。

We will continue to pause share repurchases until the final capital rules are published and new capital targets are established. We are also taking several actions to boost on balance sheet liquidity and optimize returns, including reducing our indirect auto lending origination volumes by approximately 15% through the exit of non-core states, trimming outsized lines and closely evaluating select areas of our Corporate Banking business.

我們將繼續暫停股票回購，直到最終資本規則公佈並確定新的資本目標。我們還採取多項行動來提高資產負債表流動性並優化回報，包括通過非核心國家的退出將間接汽車貸款發放量減少約 15%、削減超額貸款以及密切評估我們企業銀行業務的選定領域。

While we acknowledge the market's more optimistic outlook, we remain vigilant on the potential for a recession in 2024. Our Commercial clients continue to perform well, but they are being cautious by slowing their growth plans. Many are closely watching the impact that regulation may have on credit availability and pricing. Consumers have held up well in aggregate, but there has been a divergence between homeowners who were able to lock in historically low mortgage rates and renters, who have had to face persistent inflation in their largest monthly expense. Compared to 3 years ago, homeowners in our deposit base have maintained strong deposit balances, whereas renters deposit balances are down meaningfully.

雖然我們承認市場前景更加樂觀，但我們仍然對 2024 年經濟衰退的可能性保持警惕。我們的商業客戶繼續表現良好，但他們通過放慢增長計劃而保持謹慎。許多人正在密切關注監管可能對信貸供應和定價產生的影響。消費者總體表現良好，但能夠鎖定歷史低抵押貸款利率的房主和不得不面對每月最大支出持續通脹的租房者之間存在分歧。與三年前相比，我們的存款基礎中的房主保持了強勁的存款餘額，而租房者的存款餘額則大幅下降。

I want to thank our nearly 20,000 employees for their unwavering commitment to serving clients in our communities. Last year, you volunteered more than 117,000 hours to community organizations and you provided leadership to roughly 1,200 not-for-profit boards. Due to your hard work, we have already delivered nearly $30 billion of our 10-year $100 billion commitment to provide affordable housing, access to essential services and renewable energy.

我要感謝我們近 20,000 名員工堅定不移地致力於為我們社區的客戶提供服務。去年，您為社區組織志願服務了超過 117,000 小時，並為大約 1,200 個非營利委員會提供領導。由於你們的辛勤工作，我們已經兌現了 10 年 1000 億美元承諾中的近 300 億美元，以提供經濟適用房、基本服務和可再生能源。

In June, we celebrated Fifth Third's 165th anniversary. Given the current pace of technological and regulatory change, and the logical questions about market structure and competitive model to follow, it was an interesting time to reflect on our history and what it could tell us about this moment.

六月，我們慶祝了 Fifth Third 成立 165 週年。考慮到當前技術和監管變革的步伐，以及有關市場結構和競爭模式的邏輯問題，這是一個有趣的時刻來反思我們的歷史以及它可以告訴我們關於這一時刻的信息。

Since Fifth Third's founding in 1858, the company has withstood a civil war, 2 world wars, 2 global health pandemics and 33 recessions. The company adapted its business model to take advantage of technological innovations including the telephone, electric white bulbs, the automobile and the Internet. We were an early adopter of the wire and ACH Windows, anchored the rollout of the credit card networks in the Midwest, invented the network ATM, and were 1 of the 15 initial launch banks for Zelle. We witnessed the creation of the OCC, the Federal Reserve and the FDIC, and have continued to thrive through many different regulatory regimes.

自 1858 年成立以來，Fifth Third 已經歷了一場內戰、兩次世界大戰、兩次全球流行病和 33 次經濟衰退。該公司調整了其業務模式，以利用電話、白電燈泡、汽車和互聯網等技術創新。我們是電彙和 ACH Windows 的早期採用者，在中西部地區推出了信用卡網絡，發明了網絡 ATM，並且是 Zelle 最初推出的 15 家銀行之一。我們見證了 OCC、美聯儲和 FDIC 的創建，並通過許多不同的監管制度繼續蓬勃發展。

I believe that companies that stand the test of time, develop a character of their own that extends beyond the people who work there. Fifth Third's character is rooted in hard work, ingenuity, and insistence on excellence and the sense of responsibility for the communities we serve. I'm as confident as ever in Fifth Third's positioning, our ability to outperform through the cycle and to deliver innovations that improve lives for all our stakeholders. And frankly, I'm just thankful to be part of team that will steward the bank into the future.

我相信，經得起時間考驗的公司會發展出一種超越其員工的獨特性格。 Fifth Third 的品格植根於勤奮工作、獨創性、對卓越的堅持以及對我們所服務的社區的責任感。我對 Fifth Third 的定位一如既往地充滿信心，對我們在整個週期中表現出色的能力以及提供改善所有利益相關者生活的創新的能力充滿信心。坦白說，我很感激能夠成為管理銀行走向未來的團隊的一員。

With that, I'll now hand it over to Jamie to provide more details on our financial results and outlook.

現在，我將把它交給傑米，以提供有關我們的財務業績和前景的更多詳細信息。

Thank you, Tim, and thank all of you for joining us today. Our second quarter results were once again strong despite the market headwinds. We achieved an adjusted efficiency ratio of just below 55%, which is a 4-point improvement compared to the prior quarter. Our second quarter adjusted PPNR grew more than 8% compared to both the prior quarter and year ago quarter, driven by the continued diversification and growth of our fee revenue streams combined with disciplined expense management throughout the bank.

謝謝蒂姆，也感謝大家今天加入我們。儘管市場逆風，我們第二季度的業績再次強勁。我們的調整後效率略低於 55%，比上一季度提高了 4 個百分點。與上一季度和去年同期相比，我們第二季度調整後的 PPNR 增長了 8% 以上，這得益於我們的費用收入流的持續多元化和增長以及整個銀行嚴格的費用管理。

Net interest income of approximately $1.46 billion, increased 9% year-over-year, but did decline 4% sequentially. Our sequential NII performance was the result of our deliberate actions to grow on balance sheet liquidity to support a defensive balance sheet position, given the uncertain macroeconomic outlook and tightening liquidity conditions.

淨利息收入約為14.6億美元，同比增長9%，但環比下降4%。鑑於不確定的宏觀經濟前景和收緊的流動性狀況，我們的 NII 連續表現是我們刻意採取行動增加資產負債表流動性以支持防禦性資產負債表頭寸的結果。

Interest-bearing deposit costs increased 54 basis points to 2.3%, which represents a cycle-to-date beta of 45% on interest-bearing deposits, which includes the impact of CDs. Adjusted non-interest income increased 2% compared to the year ago quarter, with increases in mortgage fee income and commercial banking revenue, partially offset by a decline in deposit service charges due to the impact of earnings credits from higher market rates and the elimination of our consumer NSF fees in July of last year.

計息存款成本上升 54 個基點至 2.3%，這意味著計息存款的周期至今貝塔值為 45%，其中包括存款證的影響。調整後的非利息收入與去年同期相比增長了 2%，抵押貸款費用收入和商業銀行收入有所增加，但部分被存款服務費的下降所抵消，這是由於市場利率上升帶來的收益抵免的影響以及去年 7 月取消了我們的消費者 NSF 費用。

Adjusted noninterest expense increased 10% compared to the year ago quarter as elevated compensation and benefits expense was driven by nonqualified deferred compensation costs, the minimum wage increase that went into effect in July of 2022, and continued investment in dividend finance. Additionally, expenses increased from higher technology and communications expense, and the impact of the increased FDIC assessment that began in January. Excluding the impacts of nonqualified deferred compensation, which are offset by a gross up in securities gains, the FDIC assessment increase and incremental expense growth from dividend finance, total underlying expenses increased approximately 4% compared to the year ago quarter.

調整後的非利息費用與去年同期相比增加了 10%，原因是不合格的遞延薪酬成本、2022 年 7 月生效的最低工資上漲以及股息融資的持續投資推動了薪酬和福利費用的增加。此外，由於技術和通信費用增加以及 1 月份開始增加的 FDIC 評估的影響，費用也有所增加。不包括不合格遞延薪酬的影響（這些影響被證券收益總額增加、FDIC 評估增加和股息融資增量費用增長所抵消），基本費用總額與去年同期相比增加了約 4%。

Moving to the balance sheet. Total average portfolio loans and leases were stable sequentially in both Commercial and Consumer portfolios due to our continued discipline with respect to client selection and optimizing returns, and also reflecting softening demand. The period-end Commercial revolver utilization rate of 35%, decreased 2% compared to last quarter. C&I balances were flat compared to the prior quarter as strong middle market loan production and muted payoffs were offset by the lower revolver utilization. Corporate Banking production was also tempered due to our focus on optimizing returns on capital in this environment and lower customer demand.

轉向資產負債表。由於我們在客戶選擇和優化回報方面持續嚴格，也反映出需求疲軟，商業和消費者投資組合的平均投資組合貸款和租賃總額連續穩定。期末商業左輪手槍使用率為35%，較上季度下降2個百分點。商業和工業餘額與上一季度相比持平，因為強勁的中間市場貸款生產和溫和的回報被較低的循環利用所抵消。由於我們專注於在這種環境下優化資本回報率和降低客戶需求，企業銀行業務的生產也受到了影響。

Average total Consumer portfolio loan and lease balances reflected growth from dividend finance, offset by declines in indirect auto and residential mortgage. Average total deposits were flat compared to the prior quarter as increases in CDs and interest checking balances were offset by a decline in demand deposits.

消費者投資組合貸款和租賃餘額的平均總額反映了股息融資的增長，但被間接汽車和住宅抵押貸款的下降所抵消。平均存款總額與上一季度持平，因為定期存款和利息支票餘額的增加被活期存款的下降所抵消。

By segment, Consumer deposits increased 1% and Commercial deposits decreased 1%, while Wealth & Asset Management deposits declined 12%, reflecting the impact of tax payments as well as clients' alternative investment options. June activity reflected continued momentum such that period-end total deposits were up 1% compared to the prior quarter. Notably, we have grown deposits 2% since the end of last June compared to a 5% decline for the top 25 banks as shown in the Fed's H8 data.

按細分類別，消費者存款增長 1%，商業存款下降 1%，而財富與資產管理存款下降 12%，反映了納稅以及客戶另類投資選擇的影響。 6 月份的活動反映了持續的勢頭，期末存款總額比上一季度增長了 1%。值得注意的是，自去年 6 月底以來，我們的存款增長了 2%，而美聯儲 H8 數據顯示，前 25 家銀行的存款下降了 5%。

Moving to credit. As Tim mentioned, credit trends were stable with our key credit metrics remaining below normalized levels. The net charge-off ratio of 29 basis points increased 3 basis points compared to the prior quarter. The NPA ratio of 54 basis points was up 3 basis points compared to the prior quarter. In Consumer, we have focused on lending to homeowners, which represents 85% of our Consumer portfolio. We have also maintained one of the lowest overall portfolio concentrations in non-prime consumer borrowers among our peers.

轉向信貸。正如蒂姆提到的，信貸趨勢穩定，我們的關鍵信貸指標仍低於正常水平。淨核銷率為29個基點，較上季度增加3個基點。 NPA 率為 54 個基點，較上季度上升 3 個基點。在消費者領域，我們專注於向房主提供貸款，占我們消費者投資組合的 85%。我們也是同行中非優質消費借款人的整體投資組合集中度最低的國家之一。

In Commercial, we have maintained the lowest overall CRE concentration as a percent of total loans relative to peers for many years. Within CRE, we have limited office exposure with a low and improving criticized asset ratio and almost no delinquencies. We continue to watch office closely and believe the overall impact on Fifth Third will be limited. We had deemphasized office even before the pandemic, and we are not currently pursuing new office CRE originations.

在商業領域，多年來，我們的商業房地產整體集中度佔貸款總額的百分比相對於同行一直保持在最低水平。在商業地產內，我們的辦公室風險敞口有限，受批評的資產比率較低且有所改善，而且幾乎沒有拖欠行為。我們繼續密切關注 Office，並相信對 Fifth Third 的整體影響將是有限的。甚至在疫情爆發之前，我們就不再強調辦公室的重要性，目前我們並沒有尋求新的辦公室 CRE 起源。

From an overall credit management perspective, we have continually improved the granularity and diversification of our loan portfolios through a focus on generating and maintaining high-quality relationships. As many of you know, we have been and remain cautious in our economic outlook. We tightened underwriting standards during COVID, including stressing credits to an up 200-basis-point scenario off the forward curve, which limited our growth but improved the stability of our balance sheet.

從整體信貸管理的角度來看，我們通過注重建立和維護高質量的關係，不斷提高貸款組合的粒度和多元化。正如你們許多人所知，我們對經濟前景一直持謹慎態度。在新冠疫情期間，我們收緊了承保標準，包括將信貸壓力提高到遠期曲線上調 200 個基點，這限制了我們的增長，但提高了我們資產負債表的穩定性。

Since we began tightening underwriting standards, roughly 90% of our Commercial portfolio has been re-underwritten. Our criticized assets have been stable over the past several quarters. Across all loan categories, we continue to closely monitor exposures where inflation and higher rates may cause stress.

自從我們開始收緊承保標準以來，我們大約 90% 的商業投資組合已被重新承保。我們受到批評的資產在過去幾個季度一直保持穩定。在所有貸款類別中，我們繼續密切監控通貨膨脹和利率上升可能造成壓力的風險敞口。

Moving to the ACL. Our reserves increased $87 million, reflecting the impacts of dividend finance and Moody's macroeconomic forecast, which eroded slightly. The ACL ratio increased 9 basis points sequentially. As you know, we incorporate Moody's macroeconomic scenarios when evaluating our allowance. The base economic scenario from Moody's assumes the unemployment rate reaches 4.3%, while the downside scenario incorporates a peak unemployment rate of 7.8%. We maintained our scenario weightings of 80% to the base and 10% to each of the upside, and downside scenarios.

轉向 ACL。我們的準備金增加了 8700 萬美元，反映了股息融資和穆迪宏觀經濟預測的影響，略有下降。 ACL比率環比增加9個基點。如您所知，我們在評估我們的津貼時考慮了穆迪的宏觀經濟情景。穆迪的基本經濟情景假設失業率達到 4.3%，而下行情景則包括失業率達到 7.8% 的峰值。我們維持基本情景權重為 80%，上行和下行情景各佔 10%。

Moving to capital. Our CET1 ratio increased 25 basis points sequentially, ending the quarter at over 9.5%. Our capital position reflects our ability to build capital quickly through our strong earnings generation. Our tangible book value per share, excluding AOCI, increased 11% compared to the year ago quarter. We continue to expect a meaningful improvement in our unrealized loss position, assuming the forward curve plays out, resulting in approximately 36% of our current loss position accreting back into equity by the end of 2024 and approximately 50% by the end of 2025.

遷往首都。我們的 CET1 比率連續上升 25 個基點，本季度結束時超過 9.5%。我們的資本狀況反映了我們通過強勁的盈利能力快速積累資本的能力。我們的每股有形賬面價值（不包括 AOCI）與去年同期相比增長了 11%。我們繼續預計，假設遠期曲線發揮作用，我們的未實現損失頭寸將出現有意義的改善，到 2024 年底，我們當前損失頭寸的約 36% 會重新計入股本，到 2025 年底，這一比例將增加到約 50%。

Looking forward, we expect to build capital at an accelerated pace given our RWA optimization initiatives and by extending our share buyback pause. As Tim mentioned, we will postpone repurchases until we have more clarity on the regulatory environment in order to determine the new level of required capital dollars. Assuming we do not buy back shares through year-end, we would anticipate accreting capital such that our CET1 ratio ends this year at or above 10%.

展望未來，鑑於我們的 RWA 優化舉措和延長股票回購暫停時間，我們預計將加快資本建設速度。正如蒂姆提到的，我們將推遲回購，直到我們對監管環境更加清晰，以確定所需資本的新水平。假設我們在年底前不回購股票，我們預計會增加資本，使我們的 CET1 比率今年結束時達到或超過 10%。

Moving to our current outlook. We expect full year average total loan growth between 1% and 2%, which reflects our cautious outlook on the economic environment and our decision to proactively adapt our balance sheet to the new regulatory regime. We expect total commercial loans to increase in the low single digits area compared to 2022, which implies a decline in the second half of the year relative to the first half. This outlook assumes the revolver utilization rate of 35% in the second quarter remained stable throughout the remainder of 2023.

轉向我們目前的展望。我們預計全年平均貸款總額增長在 1% 至 2% 之間，這反映了我們對經濟環境的謹慎展望以及我們主動調整資產負債表以適應新監管制度的決定。我們預計，與 2022 年相比，商業貸款總額將在低個位數區域內增長，這意味著下半年相對於上半年有所下降。這一展望假設第二季度左輪手槍利用率為 35%，並在 2023 年剩餘時間內保持穩定。

Our commercial loan outlook also assumes that we meaningfully reduced originations in certain areas of the Commercial franchise, predominantly in the Corporate bank to meet our higher risk-adjusted return thresholds, while continuing to increase originations in our core middle market business. We expect total consumer loans to be stable to down slightly from reduced originations of the lower-yielding out-of-footprint auto and specialty lending channels, combined with portfolio residential mortgages, partially offset by growth from dividend finance.

我們的商業貸款前景還假設我們有意義地減少了商業特許經營某些領域（主要是企業銀行）的發放，以滿足我們更高的風險調整回報門檻，同時繼續增加我們核心中間市場業務的發放。我們預計消費貸款總額將穩定至小幅下降，原因是低收益的非足跡汽車和專業貸款渠道的起源減少，加上投資組合住宅抵押貸款，部分被股息融資的增長所抵消。

We currently expect to originate approximately $4 billion in dividend loans for this year, which is a modest decrease from our previous expectations. We continue to expect to grow deposits in the back half of 2023, assuming stable or even slightly tighter market liquidity conditions, consistent with our track record over the past year of taking market share and maintaining high levels of core operating relationships in both Consumer and Commercial.

我們目前預計今年將發放約 40 億美元的股息貸款，這比我們之前的預期略有下降。假設市場流動性狀況穩定甚至略有收緊，我們繼續預計 2023 年下半年存款將增長，這與我們過去一年在消費者和商業領域佔據市場份額並保持高水平核心運營關係的記錄一致。

Within that, we continue to expect migration from DDA into interest-bearing products throughout the remainder of 2023 with the mix of demand deposits to total core deposits declining from 30% in the second quarter to 27% by year-end as we discussed last month. For the third quarter of 2023, we expect average total loan balances to decline 1% to 2% sequentially with Commercial down in the low single digits area and Consumer stable to slightly down. We expect average deposits to be up 1% on a sequential basis, impacted by our strong finish to the second quarter, some seasonal uplift, and the benefits of our multiyear investments in the franchise that Tim discussed earlier.

其中，我們繼續預計在 2023 年剩餘時間內從 DDA 轉向有息產品，活期存款佔核心存款總額的比例將從第二季度的 30% 下降到年底的 27%，正如我們上個月討論的那樣。對於 2023 年第三季度，我們預計平均總貸款餘額將環比下降 1% 至 2%，其中商業貸款餘額將下降至低個位數區域，消費者貸款餘額將穩定至小幅下降。我們預計平均存款將環比增長 1%，這受到我們第二季度的強勁結束、一些季節性增長以及蒂姆之前討論的我們對特許經營權的多年投資的好處的影響。

Shifting to the income statement. We estimate full year NII will increase 3% to 5%, consistent with comments from the mid-June investor conference. Our NII guidance assumes a cumulative beta of 53% by the fourth quarter, assuming an additional 25 basis point rate hike in July and no further rate movements in 2023. Our outlook translates to total interest-bearing deposit costs increasing around 40 basis points in the third quarter and another 15 basis points or so in the fourth quarter.

轉向損益表。我們預計全年 NII 將增長 3% 至 5%，與 6 月中旬投資者會議的評論一致。我們的 NII 指導假設到第四季度累計貝塔值為 53%，假設 7 月份加息 25 個基點，並且 2023 年沒有進一步的利率變動。我們的前景是，第三季度總計息存款成本增加約 40 個基點，第四季度再增加 15 個基點左右。

Our guidance assumes that our securities portfolio balances remained relatively stable between now and year-end. As a byproduct of strong deposit growth, combined with lower loan growth and stable securities balances, we expect to hold closer to $15 billion in cash and cash equivalents by year-end. We expect our loan-to-core deposit ratio to end the year in the mid-70s area, which will keep Fifth Third in a strong liquidity position in anticipation of more stringent regulatory environments.

我們的指導假設我們的證券投資組合餘額從現在到年底保持相對穩定。作為存款強勁增長的副產品，加上較低的貸款增長和穩定的證券餘額，我們預計到年底將持有接近 150 億美元的現金和現金等價物。我們預計年底貸款與核心存款比率將在 70 多歲左右，這將使 Fifth Third 保持強勁的流動性狀況，以應對更嚴格的監管環境。

We expect third quarter NII to be down approximately 2% to 3% sequentially due to the continued impacts of the balance sheet dynamics I mentioned. We expect adjusted noninterest income to be stable in 2023, resulting from continued success, increasing market share due to our investments in talent and capabilities with stronger gross Treasury Management, capital markets, Wealth & Asset Management, and mortgage servicing revenue to be offset by higher earnings credit rates on Treasury Management, subdued leasing remarketing revenue, and a reduction in other fees due to lower TRA and private equity income this year.

由於我提到的資產負債表動態的持續影響，我們預計第三季度 NII 將環比下降約 2% 至 3%。我們預計調整後的非利息收入將在 2023 年保持穩定，這是由於我們持續取得成功，由於我們對人才和能力的投資而增加了市場份額，資金管理、資本市場、財富與資產管理和抵押貸款服務收入的增長將被資金管理收益信貸利率的提高、租賃再營銷收入的減少以及由於今年 TRA 和私募股權收入下降而導致的其他費用的減少所抵消。

We expect our fourth quarter TRA revenue to decline from $46 million in 2022 to $22 million in 2023. We expect third quarter adjusted noninterest income to be down 3% to 4% compared to the second quarter. We expect to continue generating strong revenue across most fee captions, which we conservatively assume will be more than offset by a slight erosion in debt capital markets and mortgage revenue, reflecting the environmental headwinds as well as lower other noninterest income.

我們預計第四季度的 TRA 收入將從 2022 年的 4600 萬美元下降到 2023 年的 2200 萬美元。我們預計第三季度調整後的非利息收入將比第二季度下降 3% 至 4%。我們預計大多數費用項目將繼續產生強勁的收入，我們保守地認為，債務資本市場和抵押貸款收入的輕微侵蝕將足以抵消這一收入，反映出環境不利因素以及其他非利息收入的下降。

We continue to expect full year adjusted noninterest expenses to be up 4% to 5% compared to 2022. If capital markets fees improve relative to our current expectations, we will likely land at the upper end of the range. Our expense outlook incorporates the FDIC insurance assessment rate change that went into effect on January 1, the mark-to-market impact on nonqualified deferred compensation plans, which was a reductant in 2022 expenses but an increase in 2023, and full year impact of investments to grow the dividend finance and provide businesses. Excluding the FDIC assessment and NQDC impacts, we would expect our full year 2023 core expenses to be up 3%.

我們仍然預計全年調整後非利息支出將比 2022 年增長 4% 至 5%。如果資本市場費用相對於我們當前的預期有所改善，我們可能會達到該範圍的上限。我們的費用展望包括 1 月 1 日生效的 FDIC 保險評估費率變化、對不合格遞延薪酬計劃的按市價計算的影響（2022 年費用減少但 2023 年費用增加），以及增加股息融資和提供業務的投資的全年影響。排除 FDIC 評估和 NQDC 的影響，我們預計 2023 年全年核心支出將增長 3%。

Our guidance reflects continued investment in our digital transformation, which should result in technology expense growth in the low double digits for the year. We also expect marketing expenses to increase in the mid- to high single digits area. Our guidance also factors in the run rate benefits from the severance expense recognized in the first half of the year, which reflected proactive actions taken to reduce ongoing expenses given the operating environment.

我們的指導反映了我們對數字化轉型的持續投資，這應該會導致今年的技術費用增長保持在兩位數的低水平。我們還預計營銷費用將在中高個位數區域增加。我們的指引還考慮了上半年確認的遣散費帶來的運行率收益，這反映了在經營環境下為減少持續開支而採取的積極行動。

We expect third quarter adjusted noninterest expenses to decrease 1% to 2% compared to the second quarter. In total, our guide implies full year adjusted revenue growth of 3% to 4%. This would result in an efficiency ratio of around 56% for the full year. We expect full year total net charge-offs to continue to be in our previously stated 25 to 35 basis point range. However, as you would expect, with normalizing credit costs in this environment from record low levels, there may be a little lumpiness in C&I in the second half such that total Bancorp's third quarter losses are expected to be 35 to 45 basis points and then fourth quarter losses improving relative to the third quarter.

我們預計第三季度調整後非利息支出將比第二季度下降 1% 至 2%。總的來說，我們的預測表明全年調整後收入增長 3% 至 4%。這將使全年的效率達到 56% 左右。我們預計全年淨沖銷總額將繼續在我們之前規定的 25 至 35 個基點範圍內。然而，正如您所預料的那樣，隨著這種環境下信貸成本從創紀錄的低水平正常化，下半年的工商業可能會出現一些波動，因此 Bancorp 第三季度的總虧損預計將達到 35 至 45 個基點，然後第四季度的虧損將比第三季度有所改善。

Given our reduced loan growth outlook, we expect a lower quarterly build to the ACL in the $25 million to $75 million range, assuming no significant changes in the underlying Moody's economic scenarios. This considers strong production from dividend finance of around $750 million in the third quarter, which, as you know, carries a higher reserve level.

鑑於我們下調的貸款增長前景，假設穆迪的基本經濟情景沒有重大變化，我們預計 ACL 的季度增幅將在 2500 萬美元至 7500 萬美元之間。這考慮到第三季度股息融資產生的強勁產出約為 7.5 億美元，正如您所知，這具有更高的準備金水平。

In summary, with our proactive balance sheet management, disciplined credit risk management, and commitment to delivering strong performance through the cycle, we believe we are well positioned to continue generating long-term sustainable value for our customers, communities, employees, and shareholders.

總之，憑藉我們積極主動的資產負債表管理、嚴格的信用風險管理以及在整個週期內提供強勁業績的承諾，我們相信我們有能力繼續為客戶、社區、員工和股東創造長期可持續的價值。

With that, let me turn it over to Chris to open the call up for Q&A.

接下來，讓我把它交給克里斯來開始問答環節。

Thanks, Jamie. Before we start Q&A, given the time we have this morning, we ask that you limit yourself to one question and a follow-up and return to the queue if you have additional questions. Operator, please open the call up for Q&A.

謝謝，傑米。在我們開始問答之前，考慮到今天早上的時間，我們要求您將自己限制在一個問題和後續問題上，如果您還有其他問題，請返回隊列。接線員，請打開電話進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) And your first question comes from the line of Scott Siefers from Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Scott Siefers。

Jamie, the first one -- the first question I wanted to ask is -- and I think if I've done the math correctly, the fourth quarter NII could kind of level out -- even at the low end of the range, it could kind of level out or at least really slow the rate of decline. And I guess, in your view, what would allow NII to find a bottom at that point? I guess, I asked specifically in the context of you all having been bought the most conservative out there on your funding cost outlook for the second half of the year.

傑米，第一個問題——我想問的第一個問題是——我認為如果我計算正確的話，第四季度的NII可能會趨於平穩——即使在範圍的低端，它也可能會趨於平穩，或者至少真正減緩下降速度。我想，在您看來，什麼能讓 NII 在那時找到底部？我想，我是在大家都對下半年的融資成本前景持最保守態度的情況下才專門問的。

Yes, Scott, thanks for the question. It really comes down to the rate environment with the Fed in our forecast, the assumption being that the Fed reaches 5.5%, and holds. And therefore, by the end of the fourth quarter, we've gotten through all of the repricing lag that would occur. So that right now, the third quarter guide is down 2% to 3% and then the full year guide implies a little bit of a step down from third quarter into fourth quarter, and then we'll see what 2024 holds when we get there. Implicit in the guide is an increase in our deposit costs so that the terminal beta is 53%.

是的，斯科特，謝謝你的提問。這實際上取決於我們預測中美聯儲的利率環境，假設美聯儲達到 5.5% 並維持利率不變。因此，到第四季度末，我們已經克服了所有可能出現的重新定價滯後問題。因此，目前第三季度指導下降了 2% 到 3%，然後全年指導意味著從第三季度到第四季度略有下降，然後我們將看到 2024 年會發生什麼。指南中隱含的是我們的存款成本增加，使終端貝塔值為 53%。

And I guess, coming out of listening to some of the other earning calls, the one comment we would have is that our June, like everyone else's was quite strong and could -- and I think to the point in you're headed could result in better NII outcomes than what our guide reflects. But from our standpoint, spotting one robin doesn't make it spring. And therefore, we're going to continue to be cautious in the outlook and play defense in this environment. We've got a long way to go from the liquidity conditions tightening with [Q3] at $80 billion a month, $1.5 trillion or more of trade issuance, the student loans, repayments kicking back in, and then the competitive dynamics that we're seeing across the footprint. So we're going to play a good defense, and we think defense wins championships in this environment.

我想，在聽取了其他一些財報電話會議後，我們的一個評論是，我們的 6 月，就像其他人一樣，相當強勁，並且可以——而且我認為，就你所領導的觀點而言，可能會導致比我們的指南所反映的更好的 NII 結果。但從我們的角度來看，發現一隻知更鳥並不意味著它就春天了。因此，我們將繼續對前景持謹慎態度，並在這種環境下採取防禦措施。從[第三季度]每月 800 億美元的流動性狀況收緊、1.5 萬億美元或更多的貿易發行、學生貸款、還款的恢復，以及我們在各個領域看到的競爭動態來看，我們還有很長的路要走。所以我們要打出良好的防守，我們認為在這種環境下防守可以贏得冠軍。

Perfect. Okay. And then I think take a tack one that you might have addressed towards the end of your prepared comments. But as it relates to the reserving needs, which look less in the second half in aggregate than in the first half is. No change to the reserving needs for dividend, right? I think you mentioned that's just due to the anticipated Commercial growth.

完美的。好的。然後我想採取一個你可能在準備好的評論結束時提到的策略。但就儲備需求而言，下半年的儲備需求總量看起來比上半年要少。股息儲備需求沒有變化，對吧？我想你提到這只是由於預期的商業增長。

Correct. In that the dividend reserve coverage ratio, we're assuming, remains in that 9% area. The reduction in the guide for the ACL build is driven by all of the loan production changes that we are forecasting with the RWA diet and reducing the balance sheet for the new capital regimes that will be forthcoming.

正確的。我們假設股息準備金覆蓋率仍保持在 9% 的範圍內。 ACL 建設指南的減少是由我們通過 RWA 飲食預測的所有貸款生產變化以及即將推出的新資本製度減少資產負債表推動的。

And your next question comes from the line of Erika Najarian from UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀 (UBS) 的埃里卡·納賈里安 (Erika Najarian)。

My first question is for Jamie. According to your first quarter Q, we're down 100 basis points parallel, I believe, your NII would be up 44 basis points over a full year. A lot of investors are now thinking about the potential for a Fed rate cut in 1Q '24. So I'm wondering, as we think about that 4Q '23 exit rate in NII all else equal, do you expect relative stability in NII if in the scenario as the Fed cuts? And how does that play out in terms of deposit costs? In other words, is just -- is there an absolute level where deposit costs don't move that much. Do deposit costs continue to increase even in the first few cuts? You are one the most trusted CFOs out there. So it would be interesting to hear your perspective on all of that.

我的第一個問題是問傑米的。根據你們第一季度的 Q，我們下降了 100 個基點，我相信，你們的 NII 全年將上升 44 個基點。許多投資者現在正在考慮美聯儲在 2024 年第一季度降息的可能性。所以我想知道，當我們考慮 23 年第四季度 NII 的退出率在其他條件相同時，如果在美聯儲降息的情況下，您是否預計 NII 會相對穩定？這對存款成本有何影響？換句話說，是否存在一個絕對水平，使存款成本不會發生太大變化。即使在最初的幾次削減中，存款成本還會繼續增加嗎？您是最值得信賴的首席財務官之一。因此，聽聽您對這一切的看法會很有趣。

Well, now you've just given the publicity, then I'm going to have to live up giving you a 2024 NII guide. There's no question that Bryan and I have positioned the balance sheet to be currently neutral to benefiting for the rate cuts when the rate cuts ultimately occur. The down rate scenarios continue to be the most difficult for a bank earnings profile to manage as credit costs would ramp up and recession kicks in. So for us, I believe that the deposit cost pressures will mitigate as the Fed begins a cutting cycle. We just don't see that happening this year, which is why the guide on NII is what it is that we continue to expect a competitive environment.

好吧，現在你剛剛進行了宣傳，那麼我將不得不不辜負為你提供 2024 年 NII 指南的義務。毫無疑問，布萊恩和我已將資產負債表定位為中性，以便在降息最終發生時受益於降息。利率下調情景仍然是銀行盈利狀況最難管理的情況，因為信貸成本將會上升，經濟衰退也會開始。因此，對我們來說，我相信，隨著美聯儲開始降息週期，存款成本壓力將會減輕。我們今年不會看到這種情況發生，這就是為什麼 NII 指南是我們繼續期待競爭環境的原因。

But should the Fed move to the cuts, we really like how the balance sheet is positioned for that environment. Our guide the -- exit run rate on fourth quarter NII, if you took our guide and multiplied it by 4, it's about where consensus is for 2024. So I don't think there's necessarily a gap at this point in time, but 2024 is a very long way from July 20.

但如果美聯儲采取降息措施，我們真的很喜歡資產負債表針對這種環境的定位。我們的指南是第四季度 NII 的退出運行率，如果您將我們的指南乘以 4，那就是 2024 年的共識。所以我認為目前不一定存在差距，但 2024 年距離 7 月 20 日還有很長的路要走。

Understood. And my second question maybe is for Tim. It took a lot of years of hard work, but Fifth Third has put itself in a position where you're pretty down the middle in terms of the results. You're not talking about taking expenses down next year. You're not talking about RWA mitigation. And while I'm sure there's something on LCR and long-term debt as those requirements come in that you're working on, that doesn't seem to be something that would change strategy. The question really here is as you think about where Fifth Third is positioned, and there seems to be now appreciable differences on how peers are positioned for this sort of new world order. How are you going to take advantage of it from a market share perspective?

明白了。我的第二個問題可能是問蒂姆的。儘管花了很多年的努力，但第五三分之一的成績卻處於中等偏下的位置。你並不是在談論明年削減開支。你不是在談論 RWA 緩解。雖然我確信隨著這些要求的出現，你們正在努力解決 LCR 和長期債務方面的問題，但這似乎不會改變策略。這裡真正的問題是，當你思考第五三分之一的定位時，現在似乎在同行如何定位這種新的世界秩序方面存在明顯的差異。從市場份額的角度來看，您將如何利用它？

Yes. That's a good question, Erika, and I appreciate it. I will say, I think all of the things that you described, the RWA diet, a continuous focus on expenses, thinking about liquidity profile and in particular, the value of different sorts of deposits. In the new world are all things we're doing here today but we have the benefit of having made multiyear investments in either asset classes or in particular, on the operational deposit side of the equation that are benefiting us in this environment, and they're going to continue to be very valuable going forward.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，埃里卡，我很感激。我想說的是，我認為你所描述的所有事情，RWA飲食，對支出的持續關注，對流動性狀況的思考，特別是不同類型存款的價值。在新世界中，我們今天在這裡所做的一切都是如此，但我們的優勢在於，我們在資產類別或特別是在運營存款方面進行了多年投資，這在這種環境下使我們受益，而且它們在未來將繼續非常有價值。

I think narrowly, the hardest thing on an organization, if you're trying to deliver predictable long-term results is to have to move into a binge purge mode, right? And whether that is outsized growth followed by shrinking or letting expenses run up, followed by deep cuts later it creates -- the 2 things happen. One, the first thing that people cut tends to be the last thing that came in the door. And the byproduct of that is your cuts end up being concentrated in the areas you are investing for future growth, one.

我狹隘地認為，如果你想提供可預測的長期結果，對一個組織來說最困難的事情就是必須進入狂歡清除模式，對吧？無論是大幅增長後緊縮，還是讓開支增加，隨後大幅削減——都會發生這兩件事。第一，人們剪掉的第一件東西往往是最後進來的東西。其副產品是，你的削減最終集中在你為未來增長而投資的領域，其中之一。

Two, your people actually become more reticent to stretch and to try to give better outcomes because they don't want to get outsized and have to work backwards. So I think what -- the advantage we're going to have next year and the year after that, and the year forward is our ability to be consistent about investing in the franchise. And that will mean that we stay on the pace that we've been on the last several years in building branches. It will mean that we continue to add to the middle market teams because I think the economics of these middle market banking relationships are going to continue to be excellent regardless of what happens to capital and liquidity. And we're going to continue to focus on having the best retail deposit franchise and best treasury management franchise in our peer group.

第二，你的員工實際上變得更加不願意去擴展並試圖提供更好的結果，因為他們不想規模過大而不得不倒退。所以我認為，我們明年、後年以及未來一年將擁有的優勢是我們能夠持續投資特許經營權。這意味著我們將保持過去幾年建立分支機構的步伐。這意味著我們將繼續增加中間市場團隊，因為我認為無論資本和流動性發生什麼情況，這些中間市場銀行業務關係的經濟效益都將繼續保持良好。我們將繼續專注於擁有同行中最好的零售存款特許經營權和最佳的資金管理特許經營權。

And your next question comes from the line of John Pancari from Evercore.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 John Pancari。

On the -- back to the loan loss reserve, just to clarify, the $25 million to $75 million build in -- per quarter in the back half for dividends and that, again, is for growth expected in dividend stance, but it's no change in the reserve ratio that you're assigning to that business?

回到貸款損失準備金，只是澄清一下，後半段每季度建立 2500 萬至 7500 萬美元的股息，這也是為了股息立場中預期的增長，但您分配給該業務的準備金率沒有變化？

Yes. And let me clarify one thing from what you said that just to make sure we're on the same page. Our guide for the ACL is for the total Bancorp balance sheet. However, the primary driver of that ACL build is dividend. Dividend, we expect to do $750 million a quarter of production, that reserve rate ballpark it in the 9% range. But the rest of the balance sheet, as we discussed in the guide is actually going -- from a loan standpoint is actually going to be down a bit. And so the net of those growing dividend, shrinking other parts of the balance sheet, inclusive of auto where we exited the states west of the Mississippi, but for Texas, combined with our efforts in shrinking the corporate banking book will result in a lower ACL build than what we've been running at this year because those other businesses will essentially be reducing the ACL coverage due to lower volumes, whereas dividend call it, in that same area, but the net effect is, let's call it, a build of $25 million to $75 million a quarter going forward.

是的。讓我從你所說的內容中澄清一件事，以確保我們意見一致。我們的 ACL 指南適用於 Bancorp 的總資產負債表。然而，ACL 建設的主要驅動力是股息。股息，我們預計每個季度的產量將達到 7.5 億美元，準備金率大約在 9% 的範圍內。但正如我們在指南中討論的那樣，資產負債表的其餘部分實際上正在減少——從貸款的角度來看，實際上會有所下降。因此，扣除不斷增長的股息、縮減資產負債表的其他部分（包括我們退出密西西比州以西各州的汽車業）的淨值，但對於德克薩斯州來說，再加上我們縮減企業銀行賬戶的努力，將導致 ACL 建設低於我們今年的運行水平，因為其他業務基本上會由於交易量減少而減少 ACL 覆蓋範圍，而股息在同一地區稱之為，但淨效應是，我們稱之為，每季度增加 2500 萬至 7500 萬美元繼續前進。

Okay. That helps a lot. And then separately, on the credit front, can you just talk a little bit about your C&I portfolio and how that's been performing just as we've started to see some larger bankruptcies develop. But curious how the book is performing on the C&I side. And I know you mentioned that in Commercial book has been re-underwritten. How does that typically work with shared national credits? I know they're about 30% of your book. So how does the re-underwriting work for that portfolio?

好的。這很有幫助。然後，在信貸方面，您能否單獨談談您的 C&I 投資組合以及在我們開始看到一些更大規模的破產事件發生時該投資組合的表現如何。但很好奇這本書在 C&I 方面的表現如何。我知道您提到商業書籍已被重新承保。這通常如何與共享國家信用一起發揮作用？我知道它們大約佔了你書中的 30%。那麼該投資組合的再承銷是如何進行的呢？

Yes. Let me start, and then I'll turn it over to Greg Schroeck to add a little bit more color. But in terms of -- as we discussed in the outlook, we continue to have a total Bancorp charge-off guide in the 25 to 35 basis point range. Within Commercial over the past couple of years, it's obviously bounced around from 36 bps in 2020 down to 10 bps in '21, and 13 bps last year and this year on Commercial, we continue to be in that 20 to 30 basis point range. And then within total Commercial, C&I is expected to be at the high end of that range given some of the lumpiness that we're seeing with a few credits that resulted in a little bit of that uptick in the NPA ratio at the end of the quarter.

是的。讓我開始，然後我會將其交給 Greg Schroeck 添加更多顏色。但就正如我們在展望中討論的那樣，我們的 Bancorp 總沖銷指導仍然在 25 至 35 個基點範圍內。在過去的幾年裡，商業利率明顯從 2020 年的 36 個基點反彈至 21 年的 10 個基點，去年和今年的商業利率為 13 個基點，我們繼續處於 20 至 30 個基點的範圍內。然後，在商業總額中，考慮到我們看到一些信貸的波動性導致本季度末不良資產比率略有上升，商業和工業預計將處於該範圍的高端。

But with that, I'll turn it over to Greg for thoughts on C&I underwriting and other views.

但接下來，我會將其轉交給 Greg，以獲取對 C&I 承保和其他觀點的想法。

Yes. I agree with Jamie. First of all, the portfolio monitoring really doesn't change, whether it's a SNC, middle C&I loan regardless. We have a robust portfolio management structure and discipline in place that keeps us out ahead of these emerging trends. We're really not seeing a significant negative trends in that C&I book. We're not seeing it certainly in the shared national credit book. So I still feel really good about the middle market.

是的。我同意傑米的觀點。首先，投資組合監控確實沒有改變，無論是 SNC、中間 C&I 貸款。我們擁有強大的投資組合管理結構和紀律，使我們能夠領先於這些新興趨勢。我們在那本 C&I 書中確實沒有看到明顯的負面趨勢。我們在共享的國家信用簿中確實沒有看到這一點。所以我對中端市場還是感覺很好。

As Jamie said, we're going to have some lumpiness. You've probably seen our guidance into the third quarter from a charge-off perspective. The headline there, I think, is twofold. A, we're starting from a very low base. And so because of that low base, 1 or 2 loans can move the needle, and that's exactly what happened, right? We've got 2 credits, one in the professional services industry and the other in the manufacturing that are moving -- going to move the needle in the third quarter. But overall, I feel really good about portfolio, and I would expect fourth quarter charge-offs to be back in line with what we saw in the first and second quarter.

正如傑米所說，我們將會遇到一些困難。您可能已經從沖銷的角度看到了我們對第三季度的指導。我認為那裡的標題是雙重的。答，我們的起點非常低。因此，由於基數較低，一兩筆貸款就可以起到推動作用，而這正是發生的事情，對吧？我們有兩個學分，一個在專業服務行業，另一個在製造業，這些學分正在發生變化——將在第三季度取得進展。但總的來說，我對投資組合感覺非常好，我預計第四季度的沖銷將與我們在第一和第二季度看到的情況恢復一致。

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Usdin from Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

I just wanted to ask on the securities book. I know you guys do daily LCR calcs and you got still the 2/3 portfolio in the locked out and bulleted, as you contemplate what the LCR requirements might look like, and I know we're going to learn that soon, do you think are you comfortable with the structure of the portfolio and meeting any push down requirements to category 4?

我只是想問一下證券賬簿。我知道你們每天都會進行 LCR 計算，當您思考 LCR 要求可能是什麼樣子時，您仍然有 2/3 的投資組合處於鎖定狀態和項目符號中，我知道我們很快就會了解到，您認為您對投資組合的結構感到滿意嗎？滿足任何下推至類別 4 的要求嗎？

Yes, Ken, great question. And embedded in all of our comments and outlook today, we should have outlined the strategy that our approach here for our company is that we fully expect TLAC to get pushed down. We expect the more draconian capital rules on ops risk to get pushed down, but not any of the benefits from the credit rating -- credit risk ratings, and we expect to have to be compliant with the full LCR. So that is the underpinning of all of our strategies for managing the balance sheet, and we want to do that expeditiously.

是的，肯，好問題。在我們今天的所有評論和展望中，我們應該概述我們公司的策略，即我們完全預計 TLAC 會被推倒。我們預計有關運營風險的更嚴格的資本規則將會被降低，但信用評級（信用風險評級）帶來的任何好處都不會降低，而且我們預計必須遵守完整的 LCR。因此，這是我們管理資產負債表的所有策略的基礎，我們希望迅速做到這一點。

And therefore, we are going to be holding higher levels of cash. We will be rotating more into Level 1 securities. But we love the bullet locked-out structure because that provides the shock absorber to potential low-rate environment. And -- so the flip side to all of this will be the AOCI impacts with the capital rules. And so we'll wait to see what those final rules look like, but it sounds like, obviously, AFS inclusion, HTM exclusion. And so we may have to pivot a bit on the HTM classifications given that we've not done anything to date. But that might be an outcome from the brave new world that we'll have to adapt to.

因此，我們將持有更高水平的現金。我們將更多地轉向一級證券。但我們喜歡子彈鎖定結構，因為它為潛在的低速率環境提供了減震器。而且，所有這一切的另一面將是 AOCI 對資本規則的影響。因此，我們將拭​​目以待，看看這些最終規則是什麼樣子，但聽起來顯然是 AFS 包含，HTM 排除。因此，鑑於我們迄今為止尚未採取任何行動，我們可能必須對 HTM 分類進行一些調整。但這可能是我們必須適應的美麗新世界的結果。

Right. And I guess in the near term, with rates high, the move to cash is actually helpful, right, because you're now earning [5] and change versus the average yield of the book, which seems like it's kind of just held in. So it's fair to say that, that's kind of what we expect to see as the securities book for now just continues to shrink back down. And as to your point, we just see that cash build continue.

正確的。我想在短期內，由於利率高，轉向現金實際上是有幫助的，對吧，因為你現在的收入[5]和變化與賬面的平均收益率相比，這似乎只是保持不變。所以可以公平地說，這就是我們期望看到的，因為證券賬面目前繼續萎縮。至於你的觀點，我們只是看到現金持續增加。

Yes. What we did in the second quarter was we let the portfolio cash flows of $600 million roll off and not get reinvested. So essentially, to your point, bolster cash. For the rest of the year, we're assuming stable, give or take, $1 billion. We may let it run down, we may rotate into treasuries just depending on the day and the opportunities. But what you should expect from us is continued rotation into Level 1, whether cash or treasuries.

是的。我們在第二季度所做的就是讓 6 億美元的投資組合現金流滾存，而不進行再投資。因此，就您的觀點而言，本質上是增加現金。在今年剩下的時間裡，我們假設穩定，無論多少，都為 10 億美元。我們可能會讓它耗盡，我們可能會根據日期和機會將其轉入國債。但您應該對我們期待的是繼續轉向第一級，無論是現金還是國債。

Okay. And if I can ask one quick one. In terms of your deposit growth outlook and the higher beta assumptions, I know you talked about 3% year-over-year household growth. I guess, can you parse out deposit growth just coming from the franchise as opposed to pricing up to get it? .

好的。如果我可以快速問一個。就您的存款增長前景和更高的貝塔值假設而言，我知道您談到了 3% 的家庭同比增長。我想，你能解析出來自特許經營權的存款增長，而不是通過定價來獲得它嗎？ 。

Yes. It's just that there is a several factors impacting that. So in terms of Consumer on the household side, we do have a very strong and consistent growth of 3%, but offsetting that tailwind is the headwind from consumer spending and the declines in the average deposit balance. So when you look at the Consumer, the average deposit is still 20% higher than pre-COVID levels, but it is down 10% from the COVID average balance peaks. And so we're modeling that, that erosion does continue and therefore, it creates a little bit of a headwind.

是的。只是有幾個因素影響它。因此，就家庭消費者而言，我們確實實現了 3% 的非常強勁且持續的增長，但抵消這一順風的是消費者支出和平均存款餘額下降的逆風。因此，當你觀察消費者時，平均存款仍比新冠疫情前的水平高出 20%，但比新冠疫情期間的平均餘額峰值下降了 10%。因此，我們正在建模，侵蝕確實在繼續，因此，它產生了一點逆風。

So for us, the majority of the growth is obviously coming from the Southeast de novo markets and they're growing at a 7% rate. But the Midwest, whether it's same-store sales or the total Midwest networks growing households at 2%. So we would like what we've been able to do, and I would say it's more about core new customer acquisition than anything else.

因此，對我們來說，大部分增長顯然來自東南部的 de novo 市場，它們的增長率為 7%。但中西部地區，無論是同店銷售額還是中西部網絡家庭總數都增長了2%。所以我們希望我們能夠做的事情，我想說這更多的是關於核心新客戶的獲取而不是其他任何事情。

Your next question comes from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I guess just first question around reserves and less to do with the mechanics of dividend finance and what you -- the ACL. But when we think about the 80% base case, Jamie, that you mentioned, I think if I heard you correctly, you said that had an unemployment rate of 4.3%. I guess -- philosophically, I guess, Tim, like in the past, you've talked about 2024 could be worse in terms of debt maybe we do get a delayed recession. So just give us a mark-to-market around your operating outlook over the next, I guess, 12 to 24 months. Are you expecting a recession? And if that's the case, shouldn't you be weighted a lot more to the downside than just the 80/10/10 split that you have?

我想這只是關於準備金的第一個問題，與股息融資機制以及 ACL 無關。但傑米，當我們考慮你提到的 80% 的基本情況時，我想如果我沒聽錯的話，你說失業率為 4.3%。我想——從哲學角度來說，我想，蒂姆，就像過去一樣，你談到 2024 年的債務情況可能會更糟，也許我們確實會出現延遲衰退。因此，請告訴我們您未來 12 到 24 個月的運營前景。您預計會出現經濟衰退嗎？如果是這樣的話，你的下行權重難道不應該比你所擁有的 80/10/10 分配更多嗎？

Yes. So let me answer the question about the outlook, Ebrahim, and then I think we'll go to Jamie to talk about the dynamics around the specific ACL. So look, I think our outlook is that it's hard to know. Like I watch -- we watch the same equity market indicators that you do. We see the trends on unemployment. We see that signal around inflation moderating. And I hear a lot from folks about the increased probability for a soft landing.

是的。因此，讓我回答有關前景的問題，Ebrahim，然後我想我們將請 Jamie 討論特定 ACL 的動態。所以看，我認為我們的前景是很難知道的。就像我所觀察的那樣——我們觀察的股市指標與你們所觀察的相同。我們看到失業率的趨勢。我們看到通脹放緩的信號。我從人們那裡聽到很多關於軟著陸可能性增加的消息。

We just don't get paid to manage to a Goldilocks scenario outcome here, right? Because for every positive indicator, you still have like a yield curve that's more inverted than it has been in decades. You have data coming out of the red book that suggests that same-store sales in retail across the U.S. has been negative since the beginning of the year, the consumer spending on a real basis. So take the impact of inflation out, like flat or down in 5 of the last 7 periods. You have a negative ISM in terms of what we're seeing their freight levels, whether it's exports and imports or the over-the-road stuff here in the U.S. continuing to be depressed. Like those are not positive signs.

我們只是沒有得到報酬來實現金發姑娘的情景結果，對嗎？因為對於每一個積極的指標，你的收益率曲線仍然比幾十年來更加倒掛。紅皮書中的數據表明，自今年年初以來，美國零售業的同店銷售額（實際消費者支出）一直為負。因此，排除通貨膨脹的影響，比如過去 7 個時期中有 5 個時期持平或下降。就我們所看到的貨運水平而言，供應管理協會（ISM）呈負值，無論是出口和進口還是美國的陸路運輸都持續低迷。這些都不是積極的跡象。

And if you buy the thesis that the -- what we're experiencing today is the interest rate environment we had 12 months ago, that we're seeing all of that in a world where Fed funds was 150, 175, right? So at least from our point of view, while it's very possible that we end up with a soft landing here. And I think even if we end up with a mild recession that it is not one that's characterized by unemployment levels, that we still are going to end up in a recessionary environment.

如果你相信這樣的論點，即我們今天所經歷的是 12 個月前的利率環境，那麼我們所看到的所有這些都是在聯邦基金為 150、175 的世界中實現的，對嗎？因此，至少從我們的角度來看，雖然我們最終很可能會軟著陸。我認為，即使我們最終陷入一場溫和的衰退，但它不是以失業率水平為特徵的衰退，我們仍然會陷入衰退環境。

The last thing I just want to make sure that I flag because I think sometimes words matter is when we talk about an RWA diet where other people talk about balance sheet optimization. What we're really saying is tightening credit supply and higher risk spreads, right? And those things have an impact on M2 that compounds whatever gets done on M1, that are the other factor that's sort of lingering out there that I think that we need to take into account as we're looking at the outcomes.

我只想確保我標記的最後一件事是因為我認為有時文字很重要，那就是當我們談論 RWA 飲食時，其他人談論資產負債表優化。我們真正想說的是收緊信貸供應和提高風險利差，對吧？這些事情會對 M2 產生影響，從而使 M1 上所做的事情變得更加複雜，這是另一個揮之不去的因素，我認為我們在研究結果時需要考慮到這一點。

So that's probably a long way of saying, I don't know any more than you do in terms of where we settle, but we're going to always plan around a more conservative outcome because if we're wrong, everybody does well. And if we're right, we're better positioned to deliver stable earnings for you.

所以這可能是一個很長的說法，就我們的定居點而言，我不比你們更了解，但我們將始終圍繞更保守的結果進行計劃，因為如果我們錯了，每個人都會做得很好。如果我們的判斷是正確的，我們就能更好地為您帶來穩定的收入。

And in terms of scenario weightings, we anchored to the 80/10/10 distribution because that is the probability assignment by Moody's for each of those scenarios occurring. So that as you saw in this quarter, the scenarios eroded, unemployment ticked up about 30 basis points or so on a peak basis in their baseline scenario. And as Tim mentioned, it's certainly possible that we have a full employment soft recession. But we believe that obviously, the reserve is adequate and at 208 basis points of coverage, we feel good how we're positioned.

就情景權重而言，我們錨定為 80/10/10 分佈，因為這是穆迪對每種情景發生的概率分配。因此，正如您在本季度看到的那樣，情景受到侵蝕，失業率在基準情景的峰值基礎上上升了約 30 個基點左右。正如蒂姆提到的，我們肯定有可能出現充分就業的軟衰退。但我們認為，顯然，儲備是充足的，並且在 208 個基點的覆蓋範圍內，我們對自己的定位感覺良好。

Understood. Just as a follow-up to that, I mean, I guess spreads widening, tightening credit is one thing. Are you also seeing demand fall off? Like as you look through your Commercial customer base, both in Midwest and Southeast, we've heard from some other banks where things have really cooled off in the last month or 2. Are you actually seeing that from your customers where they are pulling back around investment spend and activity?

明白了。作為後續行動，我的意思是，我認為利差擴大、信貸緊縮是一回事。您是否也看到需求下降？就像您查看中西部和東南部的商業客戶群一樣，我們從其他一些銀行那裡聽說，過去一兩個月情況確實有所降溫。您是否真的從您的客戶那裡看到了這一點，他們正在縮減投資支出和活動？

Yes. We are seeing some softening in demand. There's no question about that. I think, in general, part of its conservatism on the part of the clients. I think -- and the lack of visibility that they have into what the economy is going to look like 18 months from now. I think the other dynamic that we hear from clients is they are saying they're a little bit nervous about credit availability. So there's an interaction effect here that you have to take into account. But I was on the phone with 2 large clients, 1 in the medical field, 1 in the real estate field, in the past 1.5 weeks. And in both cases, they had gone out and surveyed their bank groups, and there were a lot of, "Hey, we've allocated all the capital we have available to invest in the second half of the year, " sorts of responses that they were hearing back and/or real constraints on the way that they have to spread ancillaries.

是的。我們看到需求有所疲軟。毫無疑問。我認為，總的來說，部分原因在於客戶的保守主義。我認為——而且他們對 18 個月後的經濟狀況缺乏了解。我認為我們從客戶那裡聽到的另一個動態是他們說他們對信貸可用性有點緊張。所以這裡有一個你必須考慮的交互效應。但在過去的1.5周里，我和2個大客戶通了電話，1個是醫療領域的，1個是房地產領域的。在這兩種情況下，他們都出去調查了他們的銀行集團，結果有很多，“嘿，我們已經分配了所有可用於下半年投資的資本”，他們聽到了各種各樣的回應和/或他們必須傳播輔助資金的方式的真正限制。

So I think there is a dynamic that will materialize here where demand will be lower for credit because the cost of credit will be higher. And that's the interaction effect that I think as we roll forward here, we're going to continue to see in addition to just general caution.

因此，我認為這裡將會出現一種動態，即信貸需求將會降低，因為信貸成本將會更高。我認為，除了一般性的謹慎之外，我們還將繼續看到這種互動效應。

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Mayo from Wells Fargo.

你的下一個問題來自富國銀行的邁克爾·梅奧。

I'm not sure if Jamie was quoting Aristotle earlier, one Robin does not make a spring. But we'll stick to the Aristotle quotes. So excellence is never an accident. So in terms of operating leverage or positive operating leverage, I mean, you did guide revenues lower by 350 basis points, taking the midpoint, and you didn't change expenses, and that's consistent with the industry. It looks like you could still have a shot at positive operating leverage, but doesn't look that way a whole lot or -- and for next year, and there's only so much you can do about higher rates and inverted curve. But do you think you have a shot for this year? How do you think about next year? Do you double up on your expense plans or do you preserve the infrastructure for potential additional growth?

我不確定傑米之前是否引用了亞里士多德的話，“一隻羅賓不會做出彈簧”。但我們會堅持引用亞里士多德的名言。所以卓越絕非偶然。因此，就運營槓桿或正運營槓桿而言，我的意思是，您確實將收入降低了 350 個基點（取中點），並且您沒有改變費用，這與行業一致。看起來你仍然有機會獲得正的運營槓桿，但看起來情況並非如此——明年，你能做的就是提高利率和倒掛曲線。但你認為今年你有機會嗎？您對明年有何看法？您是否會加倍支出計劃，還是會保留基礎設施以實現潛在的額外增長？

Yes. Mike, it's Tim. I'm going to take that one. I mean we are working on expenses. The severance item that we called out as part of an exercise that we ran, just to try to rightsize the resource base here for demand, given the outlook in the environment. And as you know, the primary outcome of all of this investment we're making in the core platforms is to bring more automation and straight-through processing to the business, which we think is going to provide a lot of intermediate-term, expense -- positive expense outcomes. I think what we're trying to do is to manage the expense base and the focus on positive operating leverage around sort of 3-year increments.

是的。邁克，是蒂姆。我要拿那個。我的意思是我們正在處理費用。作為我們開展的一項活動的一部分，我們提出了遣散費項目，只是為了根據環境前景調整這裡的資源基礎以滿足需求。如您所知，我們在核心平台上進行的所有投資的主要成果是為業務帶來更多自動化和直通式處理，我們認為這將提供大量中期費用 - 積極的費用結果。我認為我們正在努力做的是管理費用基礎並關注圍繞三年增量的積極運營槓桿。

So if you look back over the course of the past 3 years, we have the lowest expense growth. It's something like half of what our peer group average is in terms of noninterest expense, annual compound annual growth. And we were growing revenue at a little more than 2x the rate we were growing expenses during that period. I think we have every intention to do exactly the same thing over the course of the next 3 years. What we want to make sure that we're doing though is that when we make an investment, we finish the play, we get the outcomes of the investment and we move on. And I try to correct at the midpoint, you run the risk of having started a lot of things. And then you don't get the excellence that you mentioned at the beginning. It's the bench bird cycle I referenced when I talked to Erika.

因此，如果你回顧過去三年，我們的費用增長是最低的。就非利息支出和年復合增長率而言，這大約是我們同行平均水平的一半。在此期間，我們的收入增長速度略高於支出增長速度的兩倍。我認為我們完全打算在未來三年內做同樣的事情。我們想要確保的是，當我們進行投資時，我們完成了遊戲，我們得到了投資的結果，然後我們繼續前進。我試圖在中點糾正，你冒著開始很多事情的風險。然後你就得不到你一開始提到的卓越。這是我和埃里卡交談時提到的板凳鳥週期。

And I'm sorry, the start of the 3-year period now is -- was when?

抱歉，三年期的開始時間是——什麼時候？

The last 3 years, we will have grown expenses less than anybody else. The next 3 years, we intend to do the same thing. We intend to generate positive operating leverage over the next 3 years. The same way we have to last 3 years.

過去三年，我們的開支增長比其他任何人都少。未來3年，我們打算做同樣的事情。我們打算在未來三年內產生積極的運營槓桿。同樣的，我們必須堅持三年。

Got it. And then let's just go back to that quote, "One Robin does not make a spring." You said June was better, but you're not extrapolating that. Your guidance may be conservative, may not be, but Jamie, what is it that you saw in June and why?

知道了。然後讓我們回到那句話：“一隻知更鳥不會產生彈簧。”你說六月更好，但你並沒有推斷出這一點。你的指導可能是保守的，也可能不是，但是傑米，你在六月看到了什麼，為什麼？

Yes. There were 2 -- yes, 2 things, Mike, that happened in June that are certainly opportunities for the back half of the year to be better than what we're guiding to. But like most things, I'll give you another quote, "The beauty is in eye of the beholder." So some folks look at the credit spread widening and the C&I coupon expansion that occurred in the market, and we experienced that as well in June. Spreads were up a bit. We're not guiding to continued spread expansion in the back half of the year in C&I.

是的。邁克，六月發生的兩件事——是的，有兩件事肯定是今年下半年比我們指導的更好的機會。但就像大多數事情一樣，我會給你另一句話：“情人眼裡出西施”。因此，一些人關注市場上出現的信貸利差擴大和 C&I 息票擴張，我們在 6 月份也經歷過這種情況。點差略有上升。我們預計下半年工商業的利差不會繼續擴大。

And then on deposits, June was a very good month for the industry, whether you watched the H8 or you've heard from all the banks that have been reporting, and you see it in our numbers. We're up 2% on deposits year-over-year. We're up 1% on an EOP basis sequentially. We had a very nice June from a deposit gathering and new customer acquisition perspective.

然後在存款方面，6 月對於該行業來說是一個非常好的月份，無論您是否觀看過 H8，或者您是否聽說過所有銀行的報告，並且您可以在我們的數據中看到這一點。我們的存款同比增長 2%。按 EOP 計算，我們連續上漲了 1%。從存款收集和新客戶獲取的角度來看，我們度過了一個非常愉快的六月。

So what we're seeing from here is we actually are forecasting on an average basis, some deposit growth in the third quarter. But frankly, if you look at the guide on an average basis, it's about 1 point lower than our balances. So maybe we do better, maybe not, maybe it gives us a little bit of pricing power to do better on the beta. But with all that being said, we just still are cautious about the liquidity environment in the back half of the year, and we want to make sure that we prioritize stability until these challenges are behind us, and we start to enter into at least a Fed pause cycle, let alone a Fed cut cycle.

因此，我們從這裡看到的是，我們實際上是在平均預測第三季度存款有所增長。但坦率地說，如果你以平均水平來看指南，它比我們的餘額低大約 1 個點。所以也許我們做得更好，也許不是，也許這給了我們一點定價能力，讓我們在測試版上做得更好。但話雖如此，我們仍然對下半年的流動性環境持謹慎態度，我們希望確保優先考慮穩定，直到這些挑戰過去，我們至少開始進入美聯儲暫停週期，更不用說美聯儲降息週期了。

And then last follow-up. Just how comfortable are you that your NII guide kind of captures it? And is that the kind of entry point for thinking about 2024?

然後是最後的跟進。您對 NII 指南捕捉到的內容感到滿意嗎？這是思考 2024 年的切入點嗎？

Mike, it's Bryan. We certainly feel comfortable with our guide. As Jamie talked earlier and as we've talked consistently the Fed hiking cycle ends, we expect a quarter or 2 of impact as the deposit repricing lags play out. And we still feel like we're going to see stability then both from an NII and NIM perspective, and growth as earning asset growth starts to pick up from there or from an NII perspective. And so we feel very well positioned with the actions that we've taken and the optionality that's going to give us as we manage the balance sheet this year.

邁克，我是布萊恩。我們當然對我們的導遊感到滿意。正如傑米早些時候所說，正如我們一直在談論美聯儲加息週期結束一樣，我們預計隨著存款重新定價的滯後，將產生四分之一或兩個季度的影響。我們仍然認為，從NII和NIM的角度來看，我們將看到穩定，並且隨著盈利資產增長從那里或從NII的角度開始回升，我們將看到增長。因此，我們對我們已經採取的行動以及今年管理資產負債表時將給我們帶來的選擇權感到非常滿意。

But certainly, a lot can change from an outlook perspective, a lot can change in terms of what happens in 2024. But with what we see right now, we feel very good about our guide and what it's going to allow us to do grow in 2024.

但當然，從前景的角度來看，很多事情都可能發生變化，就 2024 年發生的情況而言，很多事情都可能發生變化。但就我們現在所看到的情況而言，我們對我們的指南以及它將讓我們在 2024 年實現增長感到非常滿意。

And your final question comes from the line of Gerard Cassidy from RBC.

你的最後一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行 (RBC) 的杰拉德·卡西迪 (Gerard Cassidy)。

I'd like to come back to Jamie and Greg on credit for a moment. Greg, you talked about -- and we all recognize your credit is very strong. The numbers are very low. But I'm curious, you mentioned about how you guys have a very robust management structure that allowed you to stay ahead of these emerging trends. Can you share with us what is that robust structure. And what do you mean by keeps you ahead of those trends when you say something like that?

我想暫時回過頭來談談傑米和格雷格。格雷格，你談到過——我們都承認你的信譽非常好。數字非常低。但我很好奇，您提到你們如何擁有非常強大的管理結構，使您能夠領先於這些新興趨勢。您能與我們分享一下那個堅固的結構是什麼嗎？當您說這樣的話時，您所說的讓您領先於這些趨勢是什麼意思？

Yes. I think it's the ongoing review of the portfolio. As an example, in the second quarter, our team completed a complete review of our office portfolio, right? And so as we continue to stress that portfolio, [we're] look at increasing rates using the forward curve to try to get out ahead of where those cash flows end up if rates continue to increase, but also looking at the softening rental rates in that portfolio -- in the real estate portfolio. That's how we stay ahead of it. We're not waiting for a covenant to default, we're not waiting for borrowers to come to us.

是的。我認為這是對投資組合的持續審查。舉個例子，在第二季度，我們的團隊完成了對辦公室組合的全面審查，對吧？因此，當我們繼續強調這一投資組合時，[我們]會考慮使用遠期曲線來提高利率，以試圖在利率繼續上升的情況下提前擺脫這些現金流的最終結果，同時也會考慮該投資組合（房地產投資組合）中租金率的疲軟。這就是我們保持領先的方式。我們不會等待契約違約，我們不會等待借款人來找我們。

We're active -- proactive in again, stressing the portfolio across the board, not just in commercial real estate. So we see what's coming. I think it's one of the lessons learned and a lot of us have the borrowers [cars] from the last crisis of being much more proactive state out ahead of it and then bringing forward solutions to our clients that, again, that are more proactive as opposed to, again, waiting for the covenant defaults, waiting for something to drop off the table. So that's what I'm really referring to in terms of the emerging risk.

我們再次積極主動，強調全面的投資組合，而不僅僅是商業房地產。所以我們看看接下來會發生什麼。我認為這是吸取的教訓之一，我們很多人都從上次危機中獲得了更加積極主動的借款人[汽車]，然後向我們的客戶提出了更加積極主動的解決方案，而不是再次等待契約違約，等待一些事情從桌面上消失。這就是我真正指的新興風險。

The other one, Gerard, that we've talked about in the past has been some of the proprietary systems we have from an early warning perspective, keeping an eye on real-time liquidity metrics out of the book that we've learned, whether it's through some of the ABL monitoring that MB was doing that we've adapted as the best practice inside Fifth Third as well as then what other banks do always with regard to covenant monitoring and other vulnerability assessment.

杰拉德，我們過去討論過的另一個問題是我們從早期預警角度擁有的一些專有系統，密切關注我們從書本中學到的實時流動性指標，無論是通過 MB 正在做的一些 ABL 監控（我們已將其作為 Fifth Third 內部的最佳實踐進行調整），還是其他銀行在契約監控和其他漏洞評估方面始終所做的事情。

Real-time liquidity metrics was kind of what Jamie is referring to.

傑米所說的就是實時流動性指標。

Very good. And then just as a follow-up, Greg, you mentioned 1 to 2 loans, the little pop that you'll likely see in the third quarter. Were those shared national credits? And second, how big were the individual loans? And are you still making shared national credit loans today?

非常好。然後，格雷格，作為後續行動，您提到了 1 到 2 筆貸款，您可能會在第三季度看到小幅增長。這些是共享的國家信用嗎？其次，個人貸款有多大？現在你們還在發放共享國家信用貸款嗎？

So second question, yes, on a select basis, we are still making shared national credit decisions. One of the credits that I was referring to that could impact is a shared national credit, the second one is not.

所以第二個問題，是的，在選擇性的基礎上，我們仍在做出共同的國家信用決策。我提到的可能影響的信用之一是共享國家信用，第二個則不是。

And we have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Chris Doll for some closing remarks.

我們的問答環節已經結束。現在，我將把電話轉回給克里斯·多爾（Chris Doll），讓其發表一些結束語。

Thank you, Rob, and thanks, everyone, for your interest in Fifth Third. Please contact the IR department if you have any follow-up questions. Rob, you may now disconnect the call.

謝謝你，羅布，也謝謝大家對 Fifth Third 的興趣。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯繫 IR 部門。羅布，您現在可以掛斷電話了。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。