(FITBO) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Fifth Third Bancorp First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call.

女士們，先生們，感謝您的支持，歡迎來到 Fifth Third Bancorp 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。

I would now like to turn the call over to Chris Doll, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想把電話轉給投資者關係主管 Chris Doll。請繼續。

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Fifth Third's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. This morning, our President and CEO, Tim Spence; and CFO, Jamie Leonard, will provide an overview of our first quarter results and outlook. Our Treasurer, Bryan Preston, has also joined for the Q&A portion of the call.

大家，早安。歡迎來到 Fifth Third 的 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。今天上午，我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Tim Spence；首席財務官 Jamie Leonard 將概述我們第一季度的業績和展望。我們的財務主管 Bryan Preston 也加入了電話會議的問答環節。

Please review the cautionary statements on our materials, which can be found in our earnings release and presentation. These materials contain information regarding to the use of non-GAAP measures and reconciliations to the GAAP results as well as forward-looking statements about Fifth Third's performance. These statements speak only as of April 20, 2023, and Fifth Third undertakes no obligation to update them. Following prepared remarks by Tim and Jamie, we will open the call up for questions.

請查看我們材料中的警示性聲明，這些聲明可以在我們的收益發布和演示文稿中找到。這些材料包含有關使用非 GAAP 措施和與 GAAP 結果進行調節的信息，以及有關 Fifth Third 業績的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明僅在 2023 年 4 月 20 日生效，Fifth Third 不承擔更新它們的義務。在 Tim 和 Jamie 準備好發言後，我們將開始提問。

With that, let me turn it over to Tim.

有了這個，讓我把它交給蒂姆。

Thanks, Chris. And good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. The past 6 weeks have seen a great deal of volatility in the banking sector. Markets have been trading on narratives over fundamentals and the term regional bank has been used to describe such a broad cross-section of business models that has lost any real descriptive value.

謝謝，克里斯。大家早上好。感謝您今天加入我們。在過去的 6 周里，銀行業出現了很大的波動。市場一直在根據對基本面的敘述進行交易，區域銀行一詞已被用來描述如此廣泛的商業模式，這些商業模式已經失去了任何真正的描述價值。

While we at Fifth Third take any instability in our sector very seriously, there was no crisis inside our 4 walls. We've been running the company with the expectation for a higher for longer rate environment for many quarters now as we've consistently communicated in these calls and at investor conferences. As our first quarter results demonstrate, our balance sheet remains well fortified and our capacity to generate strong profitability through the cycle is strong.

雖然我們在 Fifth Third 非常重視我們部門的任何不穩定性，但我們的 4 牆內沒有危機。由於我們一直在這些電話會議和投資者會議上進行溝通，因此我們一直在經營公司，期望在多個季度內獲得更高的長期利率環境。正如我們第一季度的業績所表明的那樣，我們的資產負債表仍然穩固，我們在整個週期中產生強勁盈利能力的能力很強。

Excluding items noted in the release, we reported earnings per share of $0.83, a 20% increase compared to the year ago quarter. We generated 9 points of year-over-year positive operating leverage, driven by an 18% increase in revenue. During the quarter, we held average and period-end deposits flat sequentially despite the industry-wide impact of quantitative tightening and normal seasonal pressures. Our key credit metrics remain near historical lows, with net charge-offs of 26 basis points coming in at the low end of our guidance range.

不包括新聞稿中提到的項目，我們報告的每股收益為 0.83 美元，比去年同期增長 20%。在收入增長 18% 的推動下，我們產生了 9 個同比正經營槓桿。在本季度，儘管量化緊縮和正常的季節性壓力對整個行業產生了影響，但我們保持平均存款和期末存款環比持平。我們的關鍵信用指標仍接近歷史低點，淨註銷 26 個基點處於我們指導範圍的低端。

NPAs, NPLs and early-stage delinquency ratios remained below normalized levels and criticized assets decreased modestly during the quarter. Moreover, we accomplished all this while also being recognized by Ethisphere as one of only 2 U.S. banks on their world's most ethical companies list. We were named by Fortune as one of America's most innovative companies. And we saw our fintech platform provide named by Fast Company as one of the world's most innovative businesses.

NPAs、NPLs 和早期拖欠率仍低於正常水平，受批評的資產在本季度略有下降。此外，我們實現了這一切，同時還被 Ethisphere 認可為全球最具道德企業名單中僅有的 2 家美國銀行之一。我們被《財富》雜誌評為美國最具創新力的公司之一。我們看到我們的金融科技平台被 Fast Company 評為世界上最具創新性的企業之一。

The strong outcomes achieved this quarter and in particular, in the month of March, highlight the strength, granularity and well-balanced nature of our deposit franchise. In the weekend following the failure of Silicon Valley Bank alone, we opened more new commercial deposit accounts than we would in a typical month. Similarly, our consumer household growth accelerated after the March turmoil.

本季度取得的強勁成果，尤其是 3 月份，突顯了我們存款業務的實力、粒度和均衡性。僅在矽谷銀行倒閉後的那個週末，我們開設的新商業存款賬戶就比平時一個月多。同樣，我們的家庭消費增長在 3 月的動蕩之後加速。

Our commercial deposit franchise is led by our peer-leading treasury management business, where we rank in the top 10 nationally in most major commercial payment types. 88% of our commercial deposit balances are attached to relationships that utilize TM services today and the average age of our commercial deposit relationships is 24 years. These characteristics contribute strongly to stability regardless of balance size.

我們的商業存款特許經營權由我們同行領先的資金管理業務引領，在大多數主要商業支付類型中，我們在全國排名前 10 位。我們 88% 的商業存款餘額與今天使用 TM 服務的關係有關，我們商業存款關係的平均年齡為 24 年。無論天平大小如何，這些特性都對穩定性有很大貢獻。

Our consumer deposit base is granular with nearly 90% of total consumer deposits FDIC insured and is anchored by our flagship mass market momentum banking offering and strong branch presence in the markets we serve. Annual consumer household growth finished the quarter above 3%, led by our Southeast markets above 7%. During the quarter, we opened 5 branches in our Southeast markets on top of the 70 added in the past 3 years, and we expect to open an additional 30 branches by the end of 2023. All said, end-of-period total deposit balances ended the quarter above the level on March 8.

我們的消費者存款基礎非常精細，佔 FDIC 保險消費者存款總額的近 90%，並以我們的旗艦大眾市場動量銀行產品和我們所服務市場中強大的分支機構為基礎。年度消費家庭增長在本季度結束時超過 3%，其中我們的東南市場超過 7%。本季度，我們在過去 3 年新增 70 家分行的基礎上在東南市場開設了 5 家分行，我們預計到 2023 年底將再開設 30 家分行。總而言之，期末存款餘額總額該季度結束時高於 3 月 8 日的水平。

Looking forward, while we face the same headwinds that all banks do from increased deposit competition, economic uncertainty and the potential for regulatory change, I am confident in Fifth Third's ability to achieve top quartile returns through the cycle with a focus on stability, profitability and growth. Our long-term discipline managing interest rate and liquidity risk positions us well to generate differentiated outcomes in a range of economic environment.

展望未來，雖然我們面臨著存款競爭加劇、經濟不確定性和監管變化潛力等所有銀行面臨的同樣不利因素，但我相信 Fifth Third 有能力在整個週期內實現最高四分之一的回報，重點是穩定性、盈利能力和生長。我們管理利率和流動性風險的長期紀律使我們能夠在一系列經濟環境中產生差異化的結果。

From a credit risk perspective, our low CRE concentration in commercial and, in particular, in office CRE, along with our focus on homeowners and consumer, should prove to be significant advantages. Jamie will provide more information on our forward guidance, but the implied profitability and return metrics for our full year 2023 expectations are well ahead of our core 2019 results. Considering the uncertain environment, we have elected to pause share repurchases for the second quarter, and we'll evaluate resuming them in the second half of the year.

從信用風險的角度來看，我們在商業 CRE 中的低集中度，特別是在辦公室 CRE 中，以及我們對房主和消費者的關注，應該被證明是顯著的優勢。 Jamie 將提供有關我們前瞻性指引的更多信息，但我們 2023 年全年預期的隱含盈利能力和回報指標遠遠超過我們 2019 年的核心業績。考慮到不確定的環境，我們選擇暫停第二季度的股票回購，我們將在下半年評估恢復。

Last but certainly not least, I want to thank our 20,000 employees for their hard work and dedication in supporting our customers, communities and shareholders. Your commitment to living our purpose and making sure we do the right thing every day is evident.

最後但同樣重要的是，我要感謝我們的 20,000 名員工為支持我們的客戶、社區和股東所做的辛勤工作和奉獻。您致力於實現我們的目標並確保我們每天都做正確的事是顯而易見的。

With that, I'll now hand it over to Jamie to provide more details on our financial results and outlook.

有了這個，我現在將它交給傑米，以提供有關我們財務業績和前景的更多細節。

Thank you, Tim, and thank all of you for joining us today. Our first quarter results were strong despite the market volatility during the quarter. Average and period end total deposit balances were flat compared to the prior quarter. Average core deposits declined, in line with our earnings of down 1%.

謝謝你，蒂姆，感謝大家今天加入我們。儘管本季度市場波動，但我們第一季度的業績依然強勁。與上一季度相比，平均和期末總存款餘額持平。平均核心存款下降，與我們下降 1% 的收益一致。

We grew loans modestly during the quarter while adding new quality relationships in both commercial and net new households in consumer. We achieved an adjusted efficiency ratio of 59% in a seasonally challenged quarter, which is a 6-point improvement compared to the year ago quarter.

我們在本季度適度增加了貸款，同時在消費者的商業和淨新家庭中增加了新的質量關係。我們在季節性挑戰的季度實現了 59% 的調整後效率比，與去年同期相比提高了 6 個百分點。

Our first quarter core PPNR grew nearly 40% compared to last year, reflecting the diversification and growth of our revenue streams, combined with disciplined expense management.

我們第一季度的核心 PPNR 與去年相比增長了近 40%，反映了我們收入來源的多元化和增長，以及嚴格的費用管理。

Net interest income of approximately $1.52 billion increased 27% year-over-year, but declined 4% sequentially. Our sequential NII performance was impacted by our shift to a more defensive balance sheet position, given the volatile environment, the impact of lower day count, and seasonally strong investment portfolio income in the prior quarter.

淨利息收入約為 15.2 億美元，同比增長 27%，但環比下降 4%。考慮到動蕩的環境、天數減少的影響以及上一季度季節性強勁的投資組合收入，我們轉向更具防禦性的資產負債表狀況影響了我們連續的 NII 表現。

Fee income exceeded our expectations despite the market-related headwinds and we remain disciplined on expenses while continuing to invest in our businesses. PPNR was impacted by the expenses associated with higher than expected fee income.

儘管存在與市場相關的逆風，但手續費收入超出了我們的預期，我們在繼續投資於我們的業務的同時仍然嚴格控制開支。 PPNR 受到與高於預期的費用收入相關的費用的影響。

Our NIM declined 6 basis points for the quarter, while interest-bearing deposit costs increased 64 basis points to 176 basis points, reflecting a cycle-to-date interest-bearing deposit beta of 36% through the first quarter, which includes the impact of CDs.

本季度我們的 NIM 下降了 6 個基點，而計息存款成本增加了 64 個基點至 176 個基點，反映出第一季度週期至今的計息存款貝塔率為 36%，其中包括CD。

Total adjusted noninterest income increased 2% compared to the year ago quarter, driven by strength in commercial banking and mortgage fee income, which more than offset a decline in deposit service charges due to the elimination of consumer NSF fees last year and the impact of higher earnings credits from higher market rates this year.

調整後的非利息總收入較上年同期增長 2%，受商業銀行業務和抵押貸款費用收入強勁的推動，這大大抵消了由於去年消費者 NSF 費用取消以及較高的影響而導致的存款服務費用下降今年較高的市場利率帶來的收益抵免。

Growth in commercial banking fee income was primarily driven by increased loan syndication, fixed income sales and trading and M&A advisory revenue, partially offset by a decline in corporate bond fees. The improvement in mortgage revenue was driven by increased servicing fees and lower asset decay.

商業銀行手續費收入的增長主要受到銀團貸款、固定收益銷售和交易以及併購諮詢收入增加的推動，部分被公司債券手續費的下降所抵消。抵押貸款收入的改善是由服務費增加和資產衰減減少推動的。

Adjusted noninterest expense increased 6% compared to the year ago quarter, excluding the impact of nonqualified deferred compensation expenses from both periods. Expense growth was elevated due to the dividend finance acquisition in the second quarter of 2022 and growth in the provide franchise. Excluding the fintech growth impacts and the FDIC assessment, total expenses increased approximately 3% compared to the year ago quarter, as discipline throughout the bank, combined with automation initiatives were offset by compensation associated with our minimum wage hike, higher fee income and higher technology and communications expense, reflecting our focus on platform modernization initiatives.

調整後的非利息費用較上年同期增長 6%，不包括兩個期間不合格遞延補償費用的影響。由於 2022 年第二季度的股息融資收購和供應特許經營權的增長，費用增長有所提高。不包括金融科技增長影響和 FDIC 評估，總支出與去年同期相比增加了約 3%，因為整個銀行的紀律和自動化舉措被與我們的最低工資上漲、更高的費用收入和更高的技術相關的補償所抵消和通信費用，反映了我們對平台現代化計劃的關注。

Moving to the balance sheet. Total average portfolio loans and leases increased 1% sequentially, reflecting growth in both commercial and consumer portfolios. Commercial was led by C&I, where payoffs were muted and production was stable in our regional middle market banking business but down in our corporate bank. The subdued production in the corporate bank reflects our focus on optimizing returns on capital in this environment, combined with less robust demand. Compared to a year ago quarter, C&I loans, excluding PPP, have increased 13%.

轉到資產負債表。平均投資組合貸款和租賃總額環比增長 1%，反映出商業和消費者投資組合的增長。商業以 C&I 為首，我們的區域中間市場銀行業務的收益低迷，產量穩定，但公司銀行業務下降。企業銀行的低迷生產反映了我們在這種環境下專注於優化資本回報，同時需求不那麼強勁。與去年同期相比，不包括 PPP 的 C&I 貸款增長了 13%。

The period-end commercial revolver utilization rate remained stable compared to last quarter at 37%. Average total consumer portfolio loans and leases increased 2% compared to the prior quarter, led by dividend finance, while balances from the rest of our consumer captions remained relatively stable.

與上一季度相比，期末商業左輪手槍使用率保持穩定，為 37%。在股息融資的帶動下，平均消費者組合貸款和租賃總額比上一季度增長了 2%，而我們其他消費者標題的餘額保持相對穩定。

Average total deposits were flat compared to the prior quarter as increases in CDs and interest checking balances were offset by a decline in demand deposits. By segment, wealth and asset management average balances increased sequentially, consumer was stable and commercial modestly declined, consistent with normal first quarter seasonality.

與上一季度相比，平均總存款持平，因為定期存單和利息支票餘額的增加被活期存款的減少所抵消。從分部來看，財富和資產管理平均餘額環比上升，消費穩定，商業小幅下降，與正常的第一季度季節性一致。

Period-end total deposits were also flat compared to the prior quarter. Notably, we have grown deposits 1% since the end of last June compared to a 4% decline for the top 25 banks as shown in the Fed's H8 data. We have included additional materials in our earnings presentation to highlight some of the key attributes of our high-quality deposit franchise that may be relevant in this environment.

與上一季度相比，期末總存款也持平。值得注意的是，自去年 6 月底以來，我們的存款增長了 1%，而美聯儲的 H8 數據顯示，前 25 家銀行的存款下降了 4%。我們在收益報告中包含了額外的材料，以突出我們高質量存款特許經營權的一些關鍵屬性，這些屬性可能與這種環境相關。

Moving to credit. As Tim mentioned, credit trends remained healthy, and our key credit metrics remained well below normalized levels. The ratio of early-stage loan delinquencies 30 to 89 days past due decreased 4 basis points sequentially to 26 basis points and remained about 2019 levels. The net charge-off ratio of 26 basis points increased 4 basis points sequentially and was at the low end of our guidance range. The NPA ratio of 51 basis points was up 2 basis points compared to a year ago.

轉向信貸。正如蒂姆所說，信貸趨勢保持健康，我們的關鍵信貸指標仍遠低於正常水平。逾期 30 至 89 天的早期貸款拖欠比率環比下降 4 個基點至 26 個基點，並保持在 2019 年的水平左右。 26 個基點的淨沖銷比率連續增加 4 個基點，處於我們指導範圍的低端。 NPA 比率為 51 個基點，與一年前相比上升了 2 個基點。

From a credit management perspective, we have continually improved the granularity and diversification of our loan portfolios through a focus on high-quality relationships. In consumer, we have focused on lending to homeowners, which are 85% of our consumer portfolio. We maintained the lowest overall portfolio concentration in nonprime consumer borrowers among our peers.

從信貸管理的角度來看，我們通過關注高質量的關係，不斷提高貸款組合的粒度和多樣化。在消費領域，我們專注於向房主提供貸款，占我們消費組合的 85%。在我們的同行中，我們在非主要消費者藉款人中保持最低的整體投資組合集中度。

In commercial, we have maintained the lowest overall portfolio concentration in CRE at 14% of total loans. Across all commercial portfolios, we continue to closely monitor exposures where inflation and higher rates may cause stress and continue to closely watch the leverage loan portfolio and office CRE.

在商業領域，我們將 CRE 的整體投資組合集中度保持在最低，佔總貸款的 14%。在所有商業投資組合中，我們繼續密切關注通貨膨脹和利率上升可能造成壓力的風險，並繼續密切關注槓桿貸款投資組合和辦公室 CRE。

Office loans of $1.6 billion represented just 1.3% of total loans with a criticized ratio of 8.2% and only 1 basis point of delinquencies, while the leverage loan portfolio has declined 65% since 2016 and is now less than $3 billion outstanding today. We have focused on positioning our balance sheet to deliver strong, stable results through the cycle.

16 億美元的辦公室貸款僅佔貸款總額的 1.3%，批評比率為 8.2%，拖欠率僅為 1 個基點，而槓桿貸款組合自 2016 年以來下降了 65%，目前未償還貸款不足 30 億美元。我們專注於定位我們的資產負債表，以在整個週期中提供強勁、穩定的結果。

Moving to the ACL. Our reserve change this quarter was a net increase of $37 million or a build of $86 million, excluding the onetime impact of adopting the accounting standard eliminating TDR accounting, which reduced the reserve by $49 million. Our build primarily reflected loan growth, notably from dividend finance loans, which contributed $88 million of the increase. The ACL ratio increased 1 basis point sequentially or 5 basis points, excluding the accounting change.

移動到 ACL。本季度我們的儲備金變動淨增 3700 萬美元或增加 8600 萬美元，不包括採用會計準則取消 TDR 會計的一次性影響，這使儲備金減少了 4900 萬美元。我們的構建主要反映了貸款增長，特別是來自股息融資貸款，它貢獻了 8800 萬美元的增長。 ACL 比率連續增加 1 個基點或 5 個基點，不包括會計變更。

As you know, we incorporate Moody's macroeconomic scenarios when evaluating our allowance. The base economic scenario from Moody's assumes the unemployment rate reaches 4% while the downside scenario underlying our allowance coverage incorporates a peak unemployment rate of 7.8%. We maintained our scenario weightings of 80% to the base and 10% to each of the upside and downside scenarios.

如您所知，我們在評估津貼時納入了穆迪的宏觀經濟情景。穆迪的基本經濟情景假設失業率達到 4%，而我們的津貼覆蓋率下行情景包含 7.8% 的失業率峰值。我們維持 80% 的情景權重給基本情景，10% 給每個上行和下行情景。

Moving to capital. Our CET1 ratio remained relatively stable compared to last quarter, ending the first quarter at 9.25%. Our capital position reflects our strong earnings generation, offset by the impacts of returning capital in the form of dividends and repurchases, risk-weighted asset growth, primarily in consumer loans, and a 7 basis point decline from the CECL phase-in. Our tangible book value per share increased 11% sequentially, partially impacted by our AOCI position, which improved 17%. Tangible book value grew 7%, excluding AOCI compared to the year ago quarter.

搬到首都。與上一季度相比，我們的 CET1 比率保持相對穩定，第一季度末為 9.25%。我們的資本狀況反映了我們強勁的盈利能力，但被股息和回購形式的資本返還、風險加權資產增長（主要是消費貸款）以及 CECL 分階段實施後 7 個基點的下降所抵消。我們的每股有形賬面價值環比增長 11%，部分原因是我們的 AOCI 頭寸增加了 17%。與去年同期相比，不包括 AOCI 在內的有形賬面價值增長了 7%。

Moving to our current outlook. We expect full year average total loan growth between 2% and 3%, which reflects our cautious outlook on the economic environment. We expect total commercial loans to increase in the low to mid-single digits area compared to 2022, which implies modest incremental growth from the first quarter through year-end given our outlook for a tempered lending environment in the second half of the year. We expect line utilization rates to remain stable.

轉向我們目前的展望。我們預計全年平均總貸款增長率在 2% 至 3% 之間，這反映了我們對經濟環境的謹慎展望。與 2022 年相比，我們預計商業貸款總額將在中低個位數區域增長，鑑於我們對今年下半年貸款環境溫和的展望，這意味著從第一季度到年底將出現溫和增長。我們預計線路利用率將保持穩定。

We expect total consumer loan growth to also be modest as a strong increase from dividend finance will be mostly offset by a decline in auto and mortgage. We continue to expect approximately $4.5 billion in dividend loan production for the year, given the secular tailwinds and our investments in the business, combined with market share gains.

我們預計消費貸款總額增長也將溫和，因為股息融資的強勁增長將大部分被汽車和抵押貸款的下降所抵消。鑑於長期順風和我們對該業務的投資，以及市場份額的增長，我們繼續預計今年的股息貸款產量約為 45 億美元。

We expect deposits to be stable or grow from the first quarter average level as we progress throughout 2023, consistent with our strong customer acquisition trends. Within that, we expect continued migration from DDA into interest-bearing products throughout the remainder of 2023 with the mix of demand deposits to total core deposits declining from 32% today to 30% by year-end.

我們預計隨著我們在整個 2023 年的進展，存款將穩定或從第一季度的平均水平增長，這與我們強勁的客戶獲取趨勢一致。其中，我們預計在 2023 年剩餘時間裡，活期存款佔核心存款總額的比例將從今天的 32% 下降到年底的 30%，繼續從 DDA 轉移到生息產品。

For the second quarter of 2023, we expect average total loan balances to be stable to up 1% sequentially, with growth fairly balanced between commercial and consumer portfolios. We expect average deposits to also be stable to up 1% on a sequential basis.

對於 2023 年第二季度，我們預計平均總貸款餘額將穩定增長 1%，商業和消費者組合之間的增長相當平衡。我們預計平均存款也將環比穩定增長 1%。

Shifting to the income statement. We expect full year NII will increase 7% to 10%. As other banks have noted, industry-wide deposit pricing pressures intensified in the wake of the Silicon Valley and Signature Bank failures. Therefore, as shown in our presentation materials, we are providing NII guidance under a range of deposit betas, given potential diverging levels of intensity with respect to deposit competition going forward.

轉移到損益表。我們預計全年 NII 將增長 7% 至 10%。正如其他銀行所指出的那樣，在矽谷和 Signature 銀行倒閉之後，全行業的存款定價壓力加劇。因此，如我們的演示材料所示，考慮到未來存款競爭的強度可能存在差異，我們將在一系列存款貝塔下提供 NII 指導。

The upper end of our NII guidance assumes an approximate terminal beta of 43%, and the lower end assumes approximately a 49% terminal beta compared to our January expectation of 42%. The midpoint of our NII outlook translates to a 47% beta with total interest-bearing deposit costs increasing 45 basis points or so in the second quarter and another 25 basis points in the second half of the year.

我們的 NII 指導的上限假設終端貝塔約為 43%，下限假設終端貝塔約為 49%，而我們 1 月份的預期為 42%。我們 NII 前景的中點轉化為 47% 的貝塔係數，總計息存款成本在第二季度增加 45 個基點左右，下半年再增加 25 個基點。

Our outlook also considers the lag effects from previous rate hikes and continued DDA migration and assumes the Fed hikes 25 basis points in May and then hold short-term rates of 525 basis points for the remainder of the year. Our guidance assumes that our securities portfolio balances declined a couple of billion dollars between now and year-end and that we hold closer to $10 billion in excess cash for most of the year.

我們的展望還考慮了之前加息和持續 DDA 遷移的滯後效應，並假設美聯儲在 5 月加息 25 個基點，然後在今年剩餘時間內將短期利率維持在 525 個基點。我們的指導假設我們的證券投資組合餘額從現在到年底減少了數十億美元，並且我們在今年大部分時間持有接近 100 億美元的過剩現金。

Assuming we continue to defensively position the balance sheet for the remainder of the year by maintaining an elevated excess cash position, combined with continued intense deposit competition, we are assuming NIM will be in the 3.20% to 3.25% range for the year. We expect second quarter NII to be down approximately 1% sequentially, reflecting the deposit loan and cash dynamics I mentioned.

假設我們通過維持較高的過剩現金頭寸，結合持續激烈的存款競爭，繼續在今年剩餘時間內對資產負債表進行防禦性定位，我們假設今年 NIM 將在 3.20% 至 3.25% 的範圍內。我們預計第二季度 NII 將環比下降約 1%，反映出我提到的存款貸款和現金動態。

We expect adjusted noninterest income to be stable to up 1% in 2023, reflecting continued success taking market share due to our investments in talent and capabilities, resulting in stronger gross treasury management revenue, capital markets fees, wealth and asset management revenue and mortgage servicing to be partially offset by higher earnings credit rates on TM, subdued lease remarketing revenue and a reduction in other fees, reflecting lower TRA and private equity income this year.

我們預計調整後的非利息收入將在 2023 年穩定增長 1%，這反映出由於我們對人才和能力的投資而繼續成功佔據市場份額，從而導致財務管理總收入、資本市場費用、財富和資產管理收入以及抵押貸款服務收入增加部分被 TM 較高的收益信貸利率、疲軟的租賃再營銷收入和其他費用的減少所抵消，反映出今年 TRA 和私募股權收入較低。

We expect our fourth quarter TRA revenue to decline from $46 million in 2022 to $22 million in 2023. We expect second quarter adjusted noninterest income to be up 2% to 3% compared to the first quarter. We expect to continue generating strong revenue across most [recaptions] and that will be partially offset by a slowdown in debt capital markets revenue.

我們預計我們第四季度的 TRA 收入將從 2022 年的 4600 萬美元下降到 2023 年的 2200 萬美元。我們預計第二季度調整後的非利息收入將比第一季度增長 2% 至 3%。我們預計大多數 [recaptions] 將繼續產生強勁的收入，這將被債務資本市場收入放緩部分抵消。

We continue to expect full year adjusted noninterest expenses to be up 4% to 5% compared to 2022. Our expense outlook incorporates the FDIC insurance assessment rate change that went into effect on January 1. The mark-to-market impact on nonqualified deferred compensation plans which was a reduction in 2022 expenses and the full year impact of investments to grow the dividend finance and provide businesses. Excluding the dividend acquisition, FDIC assessment and NQDC impacts, we would expect our full year 2023 core expenses to be up less than 3%.

與 2022 年相比，我們繼續預計全年調整後的非利息支出將增長 4% 至 5%。我們的支出前景考慮了 1 月 1 日生效的 FDIC 保險評估率變化。按市值計價對不合格遞延薪酬的影響計劃減少 2022 年的開支和投資的全年影響，以增加股息融資和提供業務。不包括股息收購、FDIC 評估和 NQDC 的影響，我們預計 2023 年全年核心支出將增長不到 3%。

Our guidance reflects continued investment in our digital transformation, which should result in technology expense growth in the low double digits for the year. We also expect marketing expenses to increase in the mid- to high single digits area. Our guidance also factors the run rate benefits from the severance expense recognized in the first quarter, which reflected proactive actions taken to reduce ongoing expenses given the operating environment.

我們的指引反映了我們對數字化轉型的持續投資，這應該會導致今年的技術支出以低兩位數的速度增長。我們還預計營銷費用將在中高個位數區域增加。我們的指引還考慮了第一季度確認的遣散費帶來的運行率收益，這反映了在特定運營環境下為減少持續開支而採取的積極行動。

We expect second quarter adjusted noninterest expenses to decrease 8% to 9% compared to the first quarter. In total, our guide implies full year adjusted revenue growth of 6% to 8%, result in PPNR growth in the 9% to 10% range. This would result in an efficiency ratio below 55% for the full year. We expect second quarter PPNR to increase 10% to 11% compared to the first quarter and for second quarter efficiency ratio to be around 54%.

我們預計第二季度調整後的非利息支出將比第一季度下降 8% 至 9%。總的來說，我們的指南暗示全年調整後收入增長 6% 至 8%，導致 PPNR 增長 9% 至 10%。這將導致全年的效率比低於 55%。我們預計第二季度 PPNR 將比第一季度增長 10% 至 11%，第二季度效率比率約為 54%。

We continue to expect second quarter and full year 2023 net charge-offs to be in the 25 to 35 basis points range. Given our expected period-end loan growth, including continued strong production from dividend finance, we continue to expect a quarterly build to the ACL of approximately $100 million, assuming no changes in the underlying economic scenarios.

我們繼續預計 2023 年第二季度和全年的淨註銷將在 25 至 35 個基點範圍內。鑑於我們預期的期末貸款增長，包括股息融資持續強勁的生產，我們繼續預計 ACL 每季度增加約 1 億美元，假設基本經濟情景沒有變化。

In summary, with our strong PPNR growth engine, disciplined credit risk management and commitment to delivering strong performance through the cycle, we believe we are well positioned to continue to generate long-term sustainable value for customers, communities, employees and shareholders.

總而言之，憑藉我們強大的 PPNR 增長引擎、嚴格的信用風險管理以及在整個週期內提供強勁業績的承諾，我們相信我們有能力繼續為客戶、社區、員工和股東創造長期可持續的價值。

With that, let me turn it over to Chris to open the call up for Q&A.

有了這個，讓我把它交給克里斯打開問答電話。

Thanks, Jamie. Before we start Q&A, given the time we have this morning, we ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up and then return to the queue if you have additional questions. Operator, please open the call up for Q&A.

謝謝，傑米。在我們開始問答之前，考慮到今天上午的時間，我們要求您將自己限制在一個問題和一個後續問題上，如果您還有其他問題，請返回隊列。接線員，請打開電話進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Scott Siefers from Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Scott Siefers。

Let's see, Tim, you talked about the much higher than typical commercial account openings in -- during all the turmoil. Can you talk about sort of early (inaudible) what has happened with those and sort of generally speaking, how you'd expect commercial customers to behave going forward, whether they'll keep the same amount with their primary institution or diversified sort of permanently? How would that all work in your mind?

讓我們看看，蒂姆，你談到了在所有動盪期間比典型的商業賬戶開戶要高得多。你能談談早期（聽不清）發生了什麼嗎？一般來說，你希望商業客戶未來的行為如何，他們是否會與他們的主要機構保持相同的金額或永久性的多樣化？這一切在你的腦海中是如何運作的？

Yes. So Scott, thanks for the question. Just everybody, we know you have a busy day here. So with the exception of the soliloquy that Jamie has prepared on regulation going forward, we're going to try to keep our answers pretty crisp. We were delighted to see the activity, obviously, and to see that continue to carry forward through the end of the quarter, all but literally, it's single digits. You could count on, I think, one hand and 2 fingers the number of the accounts that we opened that didn't fund up between that weekend immediately following Silicon Valley at the end of the quarter. So I'm very pleased with the activity level there.

是的。斯科特，謝謝你提出這個問題。大家好，我們知道你們在這裡度過了忙碌的一天。因此，除了傑米準備的關於未來監管的獨白之外，我們將盡量讓我們的答案非常清晰。顯然，我們很高興看到這種活動，並且看到這種活動繼續延續到本季度末，幾乎都是個位數。你可以指望，我認為，在本季度末矽谷緊隨其後的那個週末之間，我們開立的沒有融資的賬戶數量是一隻手和兩根手指。所以我對那裡的活動水平非常滿意。

I think in terms of account behavior going forward, I think we're going to see a much more prominent bifurcation and behavior between operational accounts and nonoperational accounts, right, in effect on the corporate treasurer side, cash as an investment versus cash as a tool in terms of the way that you manage the business. And that is reflected in the operational account behavior that we saw during the period, and I think probably contributed very significantly to the stability, the Fifth Third experience in terms of commercial account balances. But Jamie, you have anything you want to add?

我認為就未來的賬戶行為而言，我認為我們將看到運營賬戶和非運營賬戶之間更加明顯的分歧和行為，對，在公司財務主管方面，現金作為投資與現金作為投資就您管理業務的方式而言的工具。這反映在我們在此期間看到的運營賬戶行為中，我認為這可能對商業賬戶餘額方面的穩定性、第五三次經驗做出了非常顯著的貢獻。但是傑米，你有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. And Scott, what we also saw in the first quarter was that clients were focused on getting money to the best vehicle possible. So for us, during the quarter, we moved almost $1 billion more into the money market portal that we manage for them. And even with that incremental movement, we're only down about $1 billion in commercial in a seasonally challenged quarter. When last year, we were down $2 billion in the quarter seasonally and the year before that, we were down $3 billion. So to Tim's point, the money has been moving to the optimal investment vehicles, but the good news for us is we were able to overcome that headwind and actually posted a very solid commercial deposit quarter.

是的。斯科特，我們在第一季度還看到，客戶專注於為盡可能最好的車輛籌集資金。因此，對我們來說，在本季度，我們將近 10 億美元轉移到我們為他們管理的貨幣市場門戶網站。即使有了這種增量運動，我們在季節性挑戰的季度也只減少了大約 10 億美元的商業收入。去年，我們在本季度季節性下降了 20 億美元，而前一年，我們下降了 30 億美元。因此，在蒂姆看來，資金一直在轉移到最佳投資工具上，但對我們來說，好消息是我們能夠克服逆風，實際上公佈了一個非常穩健的商業存款季度。

Perfect. And then, Jamie, maybe additional color on -- you gave the thoughts on noninterest bearing the total deposits sort of that go-forward mix or end of your mix. What, in your thinking, makes that the right number? Why not lower, why not higher? What sort of the inside baseball on that?

完美的。然後，傑米，也許還有更多的顏色——你給出了關於非利息的想法，這些想法承載了那種前進組合或組合結束的總存款。在您看來，是什麼使這個數字正確？為什麼不低，為什麼不高？那是什麼內線棒球？

Yes, the last tightening cycle, we moved down 5 points. This time, we're forecasting to go down 8 to finish the year at a 30% DDA to core deposit level. Given that our rate outlook now has the 5.25% in a longer hold with no cut, we think we'll see continued migration and higher earnings credit rates that will result in more DDA migration. And then the challenge over time is, can you sell enough treasury management services to rebuild that DDA balance?

是的，上一個緊縮週期，我們下調了 5 個百分點。這一次，我們預測將下降 8，以 DDA 與核心存款水平的 30% 結束今年。鑑於我們的利率前景現在有 5.25% 的長期持有且沒有降息，我們認為我們將看到持續的遷移和更高的收益信貸利率，這將導致更多的 DDA 遷移。隨著時間的推移，挑戰是，您能否出售足夠的資金管理服務來重建 DDA 餘額？

And given our strong treasury management business, we feel confident in our ability to do it. So hopefully, we do bottom out at 30%. But for every 1% more than that, it translates to $40 million to $50 million of NII erosion. So it's -- while not tremendous impact, we would still want to ensure that we get that 30% higher as we head into 2024, 2025.

鑑於我們強大的資金管理業務，我們對自己的能力充滿信心。所以希望我們能在 30% 時觸底反彈。但每多出 1%，就意味著 4000 萬至 5000 萬美元的 NII 侵蝕。所以它——雖然影響不大，但我們仍然希望確保在進入 2024 年、2025 年時將增長 30%。

Our next question comes from the line of Gerard Cassidy from RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Gerard Cassidy。

Jamie, you touched on the credit and how strong it is particularly in the commercial real estate office, I think. When you guys look at the C&I portfolio, is there anything on the horizon, whether it's -- I know you leveraged loan balances, as you pointed out, are down dramatically from 2016. What are you guys seeing or sensing in the C&I portfolio, not CRE?

傑米，我認為你提到了信用以及它在商業地產辦公室中的強大程度。當你們看 C&I 投資組合時，是否有什麼即將出現，無論是——我知道你們的槓桿貸款餘額，正如您所指出的，比 2016 年大幅下降。你們在 C&I 投資組合中看到或感覺到了什麼，不是CRE？

Yes. On C&I, that was the driver of the NPA increase this quarter. So on the surface, NPAs were up 7 basis points. The sector that drove it the most within C&I would be restaurants, entertainment as well as professional services. But with that said, the delinquency levels in commercial and certainly in C&I continue to be benign.

是的。在 C&I 方面，這是本季度 NPA 增長的驅動因素。所以從表面上看，不良資產上升了 7 個基點。在 C&I 中推動它最多的行業將是餐館、娛樂和專業服務。但話雖如此，商業領域的拖欠水平，當然還有工商業領域的拖欠水平仍然是良性的。

And Tim and I were looking back at where we were on NPAs. In the fourth quarter of '19, we were at 62 basis points versus the 51 that we're at today. And if you look at the 10-year average for us, we're at a 69 basis point average. So while we're up at 7 basis points sequentially, it's really more of a normalization, and we're still 25% or so below a normal run rate when it comes to commercial NPA. So [it's only] normalization within some of these sectors. And for us, at least right now, it's entertainment and professional services.

蒂姆和我正在回顧我們在 NPA 上的處境。在 19 年第四季度，我們處於 62 個基點，而今天是 51 個基點。如果你看看我們的 10 年平均水平，我們的平均水平為 69 個基點。因此，雖然我們連續上漲了 7 個基點，但這實際上更像是一種正常化，在商業 NPA 方面，我們仍然比正常運行率低 25% 左右。所以[這只是]其中一些部門的正常化。對我們來說，至少現在是娛樂和專業服務。

Yes. If I just add one thing on that, Gerard. Scale is going to matter in terms of the clients that you bank in C&I. Because if you think about the dynamics that are creating headwinds for the economy, they're related to your ability to manage input costs or production and ultimately, right, the higher cost of carrying inventory to offset concerns around supply chain resiliency on an ongoing basis.

是的。如果我只添加一件事，杰拉德。就您在 C&I 中為客戶提供銀行服務而言，規模很重要。因為如果你考慮給經濟帶來阻力的動力，它們與你管理投入成本或生產的能力有關，最終，正確的是，持有庫存的更高成本可以持續抵消對供應鏈彈性的擔憂.

So when you -- the sense you get, I do when I'm out talking with clients, is the manufacturing businesses and the business is attached to the resurgence of manufacturing in the U.S. are doing really, really well. The businesses that are attached to more discretionary spending. The larger the clients have been able to pass input cost increases, higher cost of labor through, the smaller ones are having a more difficult time.

因此，當你 - 當我與客戶交談時，你得到的感覺是，製造企業和與美國製造業復甦相關的企業做得非常非常好。依附於更多可自由支配支出的企業。越大的客戶能夠通過投入成本的增加、更高的勞動力成本來轉嫁，越小的客戶就越困難。

And I think the arm wrestling we're seeing going on right now as an example between the not-for-profit hospitals and the health care insurance companies is a really good example of where the larger not-for-profits are having an easier go of extracting concessions to cover increases in nursing costs and otherwise. And the smaller ones, it's been more of a standoff.

我認為我們現在看到的非營利醫院和醫療保險公司之間的扳手腕是一個很好的例子，說明更大的非營利組織更容易取得進展提取讓步以支付護理費用和其他方面的增加。而較小的那些，它更像是一個僵局。

Very good. And then as a follow-up question, Jamie, in the outlook on net interest revenue, obviously, you guys guided down a little bit. But if you've had to paint 2 scenarios, one is the bullish scenario, what would rates have to do where you could actually see maybe deposit betas stall out faster or net interest revenue picks up? And then what's the more cautionary view? Is it higher rate -- not the frozen rate of 5.25%, but we get to 6.5% or something like that on Fed funds rates in the first quarter of '24. Can you give us those 2 variables?

非常好。然後作為一個後續問題，傑米，在淨利息收入的前景中，很明顯，你們引導了一點點。但是，如果您不得不描繪兩種情景，一種是看漲情景，那麼在您實際看到存款貝塔可能更快停滯或淨利息收入回升的情況下，利率必須做什麼？那麼更謹慎的觀點是什麼？是更高的利率——不是 5.25% 的凍結利率，而是 24 年第一季度聯邦基金利率達到 6.5% 或類似水平。你能給我們這兩個變量嗎？

Yes, I would say that on the positive side of net interest income. If the industry and the competitive dynamics settle down over the next couple of months, couple of quarters, then we would expect that we would operate in that low to mid-40s beta, and that would deliver the higher end of our NII guide. We're a little cautious, though, in what we're seeing from a competitive standpoint as banks are clearly focused on driving more insured retail deposit growth. And therefore, the retail beta is the wildcard in our guide and why we show the range of deposit betas. That could play out, and therefore, the range of the NII guide is a little wider than what we normally would do just given the uncertainty with how competition will react.

是的，我想說的是淨利息收入的積極方面。如果行業和競爭動態在接下來的幾個月、幾個季度內穩定下來，那麼我們預計我們將在 40 年代中期的測試版中運營，這將提供我們的 NII 指南的高端。不過，從競爭的角度來看，我們有點謹慎，因為銀行顯然專注於推動更多有保險的零售存款增長。因此，零售貝塔是我們指南中的通配符，也是我們顯示存款貝塔範圍的原因。這可能會奏效，因此，考慮到競爭將如何反應的不確定性，NII 指南的範圍比我們通常會做的要寬一些。

So in the near term, that is the wildcard that perhaps retail deposit betas, which have been very well behaved, actually double by the end of the year, and that would take us to the low end of the guide. I think longer term, when it comes to rates progressing beyond 5.25%, it really comes down to what are the credit implications as the Fed reaches an even higher level. We think the magnitude of the rate increases have certainly created some shock across the country, and you saw that, obviously, in what we're calling the March Madness. But I think from an NII perspective, those higher rates could continue to be productive as long as the deposit beta dynamics stay in the 40% range. But if competition heats up and we get into a 60% plus beta environment, that would be unproductive to NII.

因此，在短期內，這可能是通配符，即表現良好的零售存款貝塔值實際上在年底前翻了一番，這將使我們達到指南的低端。我認為從長遠來看，當利率超過 5.25% 時，這實際上取決於美聯儲達到更高水平時對信貸的影響。我們認為加息的幅度肯定在全國范圍內造成了一些衝擊，顯然，你在我們所說的“瘋狂三月”中看到了這一點。但我認為，從 NII 的角度來看，只要存款貝塔動態保持在 40% 的範圍內，這些較高的利率就可以繼續產生效益。但是，如果競爭加劇並且我們進入 60% 以上的測試環境，那對 NII 來說將是徒勞的。

Our next question comes from the line of Ken Usdin from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

As you think further out, I know, Jamie, you had talked about that trying to channel that downside NIM. Obviously, the rate environment has changed and all the points about the mix and the deposit growth have as well. But just in terms of just how the -- how you expect the balance sheet mix to change over time given that you're running down the securities book and your points about the DDA mix? How do you just think about that NIM protection angle? And does it make you think any differently about your -- the way you've built the swaps portfolio and protecting that?

當你進一步思考時，我知道，傑米，你曾談到試圖引導 NIM 的負面影響。顯然，利率環境發生了變化，所有關於混合和存款增長的要點也發生了變化。但就如何 - 考慮到您正在減少證券賬簿和您對 DDA 組合的觀點，您期望資產負債表組合如何隨時間變化？您如何看待 NIM 保護角度？它是否讓你對你的 - 你建立掉期投資組合和保護它的方式有任何不同的看法？

Yes. We feel very good at about how the balance sheet is positioned, especially for a downgrade environment. Obviously, the swaps were very pleased with the entry points there. We've talked at length about, in 2025, there'll be a nice increase to NII as the new swaps kick in.

是的。我們對資產負債表的定位非常滿意，尤其是在降級環境下。顯然，交換對那裡的切入點非常滿意。我們已經詳細討論過，到 2025 年，隨著新互換的開始，NII 將會有一個很好的增長。

In terms of the investment portfolio positioning, we'll have a bit of a decline in the second quarter as we don't reinvest cash flows. But from there, it should be relatively stable. We may continue to reposition non-HQLA into Level 1s, but ultimately, that will be regulatory dependent. But overall, feel good about the bullet locked-out nature, the structure that we have. So I think for us, it's going to be more of operating in a high 70s loan-to-deposit ratio and continuing to maintain that while being very disciplined on credit, which is why the loan growth guide was trimmed a bit to that up 2% to 3% level.

就投資組合定位而言，由於我們不對現金流進行再投資，因此第二季度我們會有所下降。但從那裡來看，它應該相對穩定。我們可能會繼續將非 HQLA 重新定位為 1 級，但最終，這將取決於監管。但總的來說，我們對子彈鎖定的性質以及我們擁有的結構感到滿意。所以我認為對我們來說，更多的是在 70 年代的高貸存比下運營，並繼續保持這一水平，同時在信貸方面非常嚴格，這就是為什麼貸款增長指南被略微下調至 2 % 到 3% 的水平。

Got it. And then on the same point about that deposit repricing. If and when the Fed does cut, and obviously, a lot of banks are guiding with the curve right now, how does your models work in terms of timing of Fed cuts versus your ability to then change the direction of deposit pricing?

知道了。然後關於存款重新定價的同一點。如果美聯儲真的降息，而且很明顯，很多銀行現在都在用曲線來引導，那麼你的模型在美聯儲降息的時間與你隨後改變存款定價方向的能力方面如何運作？

Yes. I mean in general, it's going to be -- it's a balance of nature of the cuts actually occur. If you're in a -- if we're in a liquidity environment where things still are relatively tight, the Fed has gotten inflation under control, but there's not a big credit event, obviously, the measured cuts would be one where you're going to have a little bit more challenging time, reversing all the beta, you're still going to get some of the beta out. But in the scenario where the Fed is having to loosen liquidity conditions pretty rapidly, you're going to have an opportunity to get a little bit more aggressive on your rate cuts from there and get some more of that beta out.

是的。我的意思是，總的來說，這將是 - 這是實際發生的削減的自然平衡。如果你處於 - 如果我們處於流動性環境仍然相對緊張，美聯儲已經控制了通貨膨脹，但沒有發生重大信貸事件，顯然，有節制的削減將是你'我們將面臨更具挑戰性的時間，逆轉所有測試版，您仍然會推出一些測試版。但在美聯儲不得不迅速放鬆流動性條件的情況下，你將有機會從那裡更積極地降息，並獲得更多的貝塔值。

So it really is going to be a little bit of a balance of how things play out. We've spent a lot of time positioning the commercial book, in particular, to make sure that we stay with the appropriate amount of price sensitivity there so that we can reprice down as necessary. We're up to about $20 billion of index deposits. So we're taking a lot of actions to make sure that we're well positioned, whether they stay high or if they cut so we've got the flexibility and the navigate through those different environments.

因此，事情的發展確實會有所平衡。我們花了很多時間來定位商業書籍，特別是為了確保我們在那裡保持適當的價格敏感度，以便我們可以在必要時重新定價。我們有大約 200 億美元的指數存款。因此，我們正在採取很多行動來確保我們處於有利位置，無論是保持高位還是削減，以便我們獲得靈活性並在這些不同的環境中導航。

Our next question comes from the line of Erika Najarian from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Erika Najarian。

My first question is on the potential coming regulatory environment. And Jamie, you probably need something stronger than coffee for this question. But the first is on CET1. You generated 30 basis points of capital organically this quarter. And I'm wondering as there is no NPR yet, but the market is anticipating tighter capital liquidity standards. Tim, how do you think about the endpoint of capital for an institution like Fifth Third from this 9.25%? And how should we think about what that sort of end point is over the medium term and the role of share repurchases and potentially more RWA optimization?

我的第一個問題是關於潛在的監管環境。傑米，你可能需要比咖啡更濃的東西來回答這個問題。但是第一個是CET1。本季度您有機地產生了 30 個基點的資本。我想知道，因為還沒有 NPR，但市場預計資本流動性標準會收緊。蒂姆，你如何看待 Fifth Third 這樣的機構從 9.25% 開始的資本終點？我們應該如何考慮中期的那種終點以及股票回購和潛在更多 RWA 優化的作用？

Sure. I'm going to let Jamie start on that one, Erika, and then I'll follow.

當然。我要讓 Jamie 從那個開始，Erika，然後我會跟進。

So from a short-term perspective, obviously, pausing the buybacks and given the second quarter guide, we would expect, to your point, that we would continue to generate, call it, 25 basis points of capital, even with some RWA growth in the second quarter. I do believe that it will be dependent on what the regulations ultimately come out with -- in order to then answer the medium-term part of your question because if I were King for a day, I would not change the AOCI opt-out rules because this was not a capital crisis.

因此，從短期的角度來看，顯然，暫停回購併根據第二季度的指導，我們預計，就你的觀點而言，我們將繼續產生，稱之為 25 個基點的資本，即使 RWA 在某些方面有所增長第二季。我確實相信這將取決於最終出台的法規——以便回答你問題的中期部分，因為如果我有一天當國王，我不會改變 AOCI 選擇退出規則因為這不是資本危機。

I think the capital regime works as stated. But should they decide either to eliminate held-to-maturity and force everybody in the AFS and then force AFS into an AOCI mark. For us, the core earnings capacity of the company, along with -- we included in the deck additional capital accretion measures that we would improve the AOCI levels by 45% by the end of next year, that it would be a manageable item for us. We just don't believe it's necessary. We have a balance sheet that our target capital level is 9%. All stress testing says 9% is great. But in this environment, we're going to accrete capital here in the short term, and we'll get to 9.50% and hopefully have a little more clarity for everybody next quarter.

我認為資本製度是按照規定運作的。但是，他們是否應該決定取消持有至到期日並強制 AFS 中的每個人，然後強制 AFS 進入 AOCI 標記。對我們來說，公司的核心盈利能力，以及——我們在甲板上包括了額外的資本增值措施，我們將在明年年底前將 AOCI 水平提高 45%，這對我們來說將是一個可管理的項目.我們只是認為沒有必要。我們的資產負債表顯示我們的目標資本水平為 9%。所有壓力測試都表明 9% 很好。但在這種環境下，我們將在短期內在這裡增加資本，我們將達到 9.50%，希望下個季度每個人都能更加清楚。

Yes. And I think just to add 2 thoughts. Our capital stress testing indicates you could run the bank at below 9%, which is the reason that hasn't been the binding constraint for us. We just elect to do it at the level we do because we like stability, right? And I think we were clear with everybody when we reset the capital target last year. We did it because we were concerned about uncertainty in the outlook, and we felt that it was prudent to start building capital early as opposed to having to do it later. So I am pleased with our positioning.

是的。我想只是添加 2 個想法。我們的資本壓力測試表明您可以在低於 9% 的情況下經營銀行，這就是對我們來說沒有約束力的原因。我們只是選擇按照我們的水平去做，因為我們喜歡穩定，對吧？我認為我們在去年重新設定資本目標時對每個人都很清楚。我們這樣做是因為我們擔心前景的不確定性，而且我們認為儘早開始積累資本比晚做要謹慎。所以我對我們的定位感到滿意。

I think more broadly, one caution I would give everybody is, I think some will take the discussion about change in regulation on capital liquidity and just bake it into models without assuming that there's any sort of evolution in the business model. The FDIC has been publishing quarterly data on the sector, I think since 1934. At least the data set goes back that far. And there's been more than one regulatory regime change during that period.

我想更廣泛地說，我要提醒大家的一個警告是，我認為有些人會討論關於資本流動性監管變化的討論，只是將其融入模型，而不假設商業模型有任何演變。 FDIC 一直在發布該行業的季度數據，我認為自 1934 年以來。至少數據集可以追溯到那麼遠。在此期間，監管制度發生了不止一次的變化。

And if you adjust for tax -- the tax policy at a given point in time, the return levels in the sector have been remarkably consistent. So to the extent that more banks are required to hold more capital or more liquidity or to change the structure of funding, I think it's reasonable to expect that the business model is going to evolve as well.

如果你調整稅收 - 在給定時間點的稅收政策，該行業的回報水平非常一致。因此，就要求更多銀行持有更多資本或更多流動性或改變融資結構而言，我認為有理由期望商業模式也會發生變化。

Got it. It's amazing how resilient banks can be when there are some level to (inaudible). And just a follow-up question to that. Fifth Third -- this management team is sort of well known for being more forward thinking whether it's your balance sheet resilience to what's been happening in the rate environment or that ACL ratio.

知道了。當有一定程度（聽不清）時，銀行的彈性是多麼驚人。這只是一個後續問題。 Fifth Third——這個管理團隊以更具前瞻性的思維而聞名，無論是你的資產負債表對利率環境中發生的事情的彈性還是 ACL 比率。

And as we think about, like you mentioned, Tim, sort of the market trying to force the regional banks into a tighter regime in terms of how they're valuing the stocks versus what we know to be -- what tends to be a very slow regulatory process in terms of NPR comment period phase-in. How do you balance that sort of market demand for higher capital, TLAC-eligible debt, greater cash liquidity versus the regulatory timeline that we don't know nothing concrete today?

正如我們所考慮的那樣，蒂姆，就像你提到的那樣，某種市場試圖迫使地區性銀行在他們如何對股票進行估值與我們所知道的相比方面採取更嚴格的製度 - 這往往是一個非常就 NPR 評論期逐步實施而言，監管過程緩慢。您如何平衡市場對更高資本、符合 TLAC 條件的債務、更大現金流動性的需求與我們今天一無所知的監管時間表之間的平衡？

I mean I think the answer is you -- the way that you manage that proactively is you would have started doing something on each of those topics last year, right? So we were in the market after every earnings call last year, 4x. And as a result, have the lowest incremental need in the event that TLAC had no phase-in period, right, as an example. You were deliberate about the way that you managed the ACL to reflect uncertainty in the forward outlook and therefore, you're carrying good coverage today, right, which we certainly feel we are.

我的意思是我認為答案是你——你主動管理的方式是你去年就開始針對每個主題做一些事情，對嗎？所以我們在去年每次財報電話會議後都在市場上，4 倍。因此，如果 TLAC 沒有逐步實施期，則增量需求最低，例如。你對你管理 ACL 的方式進行了深思熟慮，以反映前瞻性前景的不確定性，因此，你今天的報導很好，對，我們當然覺得我們是這樣。

And you would have allowed yourself to accrete capital during a period when the market was certainly more robust for regional banks, which, I think, of course, we did as well. I think lastly, what we're going to see here coming out of this, even if there is no change in regulation as we all will flow the empirical data from March Madness through our models and it's going to dictate a very different value for nonoperational money and operational money, right?

在區域性銀行市場肯定更加強勁的時期，你會允許自己積累資本，我認為，當然，我們也這樣做了。我認為最後，我們將在這裡看到的結果，即使監管沒有變化，因為我們所有人都會將來自 March Madness 的經驗數據通過我們的模型流動，並且它將為非運營商規定一個非常不同的價值錢和運營錢，對吧？

And the byproduct of that is the banks that have good core retail deposit franchises and who have good commercial -- operational commercial franchises, so linked to payment activity, treasury management services and otherwise. That is going to be the place that you want to be. Because while we -- we think the Fed obviously has grown at some point, rates are going to stay higher than 0 on an absolute basis and our ability to make money on both sides of the balance sheet is going to be a big driver of who does well if there is more capital requirement or liquidity requirements are higher.

其副產品是銀行擁有良好的核心零售存款特許經營權和良好的商業經營商業特許經營權，因此與支付活動、資金管理服務等相關聯。那將是你想去的地方。因為雖然我們 - 我們認為美聯儲在某個時候顯然已經增長，但絕對利率將保持在高於 0 的水平，我們在資產負債表兩邊賺錢的能力將成為誰的重要驅動力如果有更多的資本要求或流動性要求更高，則表現良好。

Our next question comes from the line of Mike Mayo from Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wells Fargo Securities 的 Mike Mayo。

Am I -- do you say you expect deposits to be stable or increase from here, but for NII to go down in the second quarter? Did I get that correctly? And...

我是——你是說你希望存款從這裡穩定還是增加，但 NII 在第二季度下降？我理解正確了嗎？和...

So the driver on NII is really twofold. One is the DDA mix into interest-bearing. And then the second element of the guide is that the movement up in rates in March to have a full quarter effect of that rate increase will bleed through into the second quarter, and then that will be offset by some benefits from day count as well as some of the consumer loan growth.

所以NII上的驅動真的是雙重的。一是DDA混入生息。然後該指南的第二個要素是，3 月份利率的上漲會對利率上漲產生整個季度的影響，這將滲透到第二季度，然後這將被天數計算的一些好處以及部分消費貸款增長。

And how are you -- or are you becoming more cautious firm-wide and why? So you trimmed your loan growth guidance down by 1%. And in terms of maybe expenses, are you ratcheting that back some? Are you preparing for tougher times? Or are you preserving the infrastructure for the potential for growth that maybe others don't expect?

你怎麼樣——或者你在整個公司範圍內變得更加謹慎，為什麼？因此，您將貸款增長指導下調了 1%。就支出而言，您是否會減少一些費用？你在為更艱難的時期做準備嗎？或者您是否保留基礎設施以獲得其他人可能沒有預料到的增長潛力？

Yes. So I mean, you know us, Mike. We like to try to tell the line. We're in the end company more than we are in (inaudible) companies. So there's no question that I think we all feel more cautious about the prospect for loan growth. Part of that is the Fed's been abundantly clear they're going to tamp down demand, right, no matter what it takes. But I'd note that the 1% decline for us comes on top of what I think was already the lowest full year loan growth guide. So we have been pretty cautious as it related to loan growth.

是的。所以我的意思是，你了解我們，邁克。我們喜歡試著告訴線。與我們在（聽不清）公司中相比，我們在最終公司中的地位更高。所以毫無疑問，我認為我們都對貸款增長的前景感到更加謹慎。部分原因是美聯儲非常清楚他們將抑制需求，對，無論採取什麼措施。但我要指出，我們的 1% 下降是在我認為已經是最低的全年貸款增長指南之上的。所以我們一直非常謹慎，因為它與貸款增長有關。

And in terms of expenses, I think you noted the actions we took during the quarter. We continue to be surgical about pruning the branch network, which creates the capacity to invest in the Southeast. We had a little north of $12 million in severance that rolled through attached to expense actions that were designed to take capacity out of businesses that we just don't believe are going to need it given the outlook.

在費用方面，我想你注意到了我們在本季度採取的行動。我們繼續對分支網絡進行外科手術，這創造了在東南部投資的能力。我們有略高於 1200 萬美元的遣散費，這些遣散費是通過費用行動而產生的，這些費用行動旨在從我們認為根據前景來看不需要它的企業中剔除產能。

And I think the discipline that we have had, which is we believe in self-funding investments because it drives good discipline around capital allocation and effort is going to be the same here. So we do not intend to pause the strategic investments we're making in the Southeast or the investments we're making in the technology platform. Those are going to be too valuable for the franchise in the long term. But we are not going to be spending money on a discretionary basis that we don't think is going to generate a near-term return outside of our strategic investments.

而且我認為我們擁有的紀律，即我們相信自籌資金投資，因為它推動了圍繞資本分配和努力的良好紀律，在這裡將是相同的。因此，我們不打算暫停我們在東南部進行的戰略投資或我們在技術平台上進行的投資。從長遠來看，這些對於球隊來說太有價值了。但我們不會隨意花錢，我們認為這不會在我們的戰略投資之外產生近期回報。

And then last one, just -- it was interesting, as you talked about, you said you could go ahead and recognize your security losses in AFS would be manageable and -- or I guess you could sell those or do all sorts of things with that. Do you have the capacity? I guess, how much more in TLAC would you need? You said you've been in the market for the last 4 quarters. And if you had to go ahead and do that and be the only bank that did that, would that set you apart? Or would that just be uneconomic?

然後是最後一個，只是——這很有趣，正如你所說的，你說你可以繼續並認識到你在 AFS 中的安全損失是可控的——或者我想你可以賣掉它們或做各種各樣的事情那。你有能力嗎？我想，您還需要多少 TLAC？你說你在過去 4 個季度一直在市場上。如果您必須繼續這樣做並成為唯一一家這樣做的銀行，那會讓您與眾不同嗎？或者那隻是不經濟的？

Yes. Just to clarify on the AFS, my comment was about the AOCI, should it be a capital requirement that we would have significant improvement based on the implied forward curve through the end of 2024, -- about 45% of that would roll down the curve given the bullet structure of the portfolio, not necessarily selling it all. So we do like the portfolio.

是的。只是為了澄清 AFS，我的評論是關於 AOCI 的，如果它是一項資本要求，我們將根據到 2024 年底的隱含遠期曲線有顯著改善，--其中約 45% 將向下滾動曲線鑑於投資組合的子彈結構，不一定全部出售。所以我們確實喜歡這個投資組合。

But in terms of the TLAC challenge, at the end of the year, our gap to the 6% RWA bank level would be about $4 billion. So for a bank our size, that is certainly manageable. And then the question then becomes what would the regulations change with what you would do with the proceeds. So right now, we're sitting on $10 billion of excess cash, which is frankly the biggest driver of the NIM erosion as we look forward on a full year basis because that $10 billion of excess cash cost about 16 basis points of NIM.

但就 TLAC 挑戰而言，到年底，我們與 6% RWA 銀行水平的差距約為 40 億美元。因此，對於我們這種規模的銀行來說，這當然是可以管理的。然後問題就變成了法規會隨著您對收益的處理而發生什麼變化。所以現在，我們坐擁 100 億美元的過剩現金，坦率地說，這是 NIM 侵蝕的最大驅動力，因為我們期待全年，因為這 100 億美元的過剩現金成本約為 NIM 的 16 個基點。

And so if we were to issue $4 billion more in debt, obviously, we would prefer to lend it to customers. But if the liquidity rules tighten and we have to hold a higher Reg YY liquidity buffer, then we would be forced (inaudible) just holding it in cash or buying more Level 1s. And so it starts to become a challenge with the distribution of the proceeds when you say -- would it sets you apart and would your earnings profile improve? I think it would just be a gross-up of the balance sheet and really not productive. And so that's why we haven't done it.

因此，如果我們再發行 40 億美元的債務，顯然我們更願意將其借給客戶。但是，如果流動性規則收緊並且我們必須持有更高的 Reg YY 流動性緩衝，那麼我們將被迫（聽不清）僅以現金持有或購買更多 1 級。因此，當你說——它會讓你與眾不同並且你的收入狀況會改善時，它開始成為收益分配的挑戰嗎？我認為這只是資產負債表的總和，而且實際上沒有成效。所以這就是我們沒有這樣做的原因。

No, that's clear. And lastly, $4 billion gap for TLAC, how much have you issued or how much do you have?

不，這很清楚。最後，40 億美元的 TLAC 缺口，你發行了多少或你有多少？

We haven't issued any this year, but total long-term debt is $13 billion right now.

我們今年沒有發行任何債券，但目前的長期債務總額為 130 億美元。

Yes. And Mike, this is -- Mike, this is Bryan. That's about 6.6% of assets. Pre-COVID, we were at 9% of total assets, and that gap is about $5 billion. So we're just getting back to levels where we were before COVID. So that TLAC requirement is just not a big deal for us relative to our historic balance sheet structure.

是的。邁克，這是——邁克，這是布萊恩。這大約是資產的 6.6%。在 COVID 之前，我們佔總資產的 9%，這一差距約為 50 億美元。所以我們只是回到了 COVID 之前的水平。因此，相對於我們歷史上的資產負債表結構，TLAC 要求對我們來說並不是什麼大問題。

Our next question comes from the line of John Pancari from Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 John Pancari。

Just a question on the securities book. I appreciate the detail you gave on Slide 25 on the commercial mortgage-backed securities. I know they are 52% of your securities book. Could you maybe give us an update there? Are you seeing any stress there in terms of the performance of those securities amid the commercial real estate stress? And then what type of stress would be needed to pose risk to valuations or -- other than temporary impairment in that portfolio?

只是關於證券簿的問題。感謝您在幻燈片 25 中提供的有關商業抵押貸款支持證券的詳細信息。我知道它們佔您證券賬簿的 52%。你能給我們更新一下嗎？在商業房地產壓力下，您是否看到這些證券的表現有任何壓力？那麼需要什麼樣的壓力才能對估值構成風險，或者 - 除了該投資組合的暫時性損害之外？

Yes, absolutely. It's Bryan again. So you need to break the CMBS portfolio into 2 components. The agency portfolio which is effectively -- it is Fannie Freddie and Ginnie guaranteed. So that portfolio looks just like RMBS that many people are invested in. So from a credit perspective, no issues on $29 billion of that portfolio as it's GSE guaranteed.

是的，一點沒錯。又是布萊恩。因此，您需要將 CMBS 投資組合分為兩個部分。有效的代理組合——由 Fannie Freddie 和 Ginnie 保證。因此，該投資組合看起來就像許多人投資的 RMBS。因此，從信用的角度來看，該投資組合中的 290 億美元沒有問題，因為它有 GSE 擔保。

The non-agency portfolio, which is only $5 billion, it is all super senior, AAA rated and we perform a very significant analysis from a stress perspective and from an underwriting perspective every time that we buy and as well as when we monitor the portfolio. To give you some color on our recent stress test that we've performed, we assume a 50% decrease in property values across all the underlying properties within these structures. And even in that scenario, we would we would realize no losses on that portfolio and still have 23% hard enhancement.

非機構投資組合，只有 50 億美元，都是超級高級，AAA 評級，我們每次購買以及監控投資組合時，都會從壓力角度和承銷角度進行非常重要的分析.為了讓您了解我們最近進行的壓力測試，我們假設這些結構中所有基礎屬性的屬性值降低 50%。即使在那種情況下，我們也會意識到該投資組合沒有損失，並且仍然有 23% 的硬增強。

The office loans in that portfolio are about 30% of the underlying loans. If we assume that from a weighted average perspective, that does office loans, that the underlying properties would experience a 90% decrease. That's when we would get to our first dollar of credit loss on that portfolio. So we feel very confident, and there would be significant loan losses across the entire industry before we'd even recognize our first dollar loss on this -- on the structure associated in this portfolio.

該投資組合中的辦公室貸款約占基礎貸款的 30%。如果我們假設從加權平均的角度來看，辦公室貸款的基礎資產將減少 90%。那時我們將在該投資組合上出現第一美元的信用損失。因此，我們感到非常有信心，並且在我們甚至認識到我們在此投資組合相關結構上的第一筆美元損失之前，整個行業都會出現重大貸款損失。

Got it. It's very helpful. And then separately, I just wanted to see if you can update us on the status of your core systems conversion. The March Madness, if at all, impact the progression of the conversion or the timing of the expected conversion? And then lastly, can you maybe help us with the sizing up of the cost of the conversion? And how much is expected to be capitalized?

知道了。這非常有幫助。然後單獨地，我只是想看看你是否可以向我們更新你的核心系統轉換的狀態。瘋狂三月，如果有的話，會影響轉換的進展或預期轉換的時間嗎？最後，您能否幫助我們估算轉換成本？預計資本化多少？

Yes. John, it's Jamie. Thanks for the question. As you saw in the expense numbers this quarter, we did have continued ramp-up in technology costs that ultimately is a good thing because it means we're getting things accomplished, and we continue to track on all of our deadlines for this year. We have a new ledger going in, in the third quarter, followed by CD platform as well as continued rollout of the Encino platform across the commercial business.

是的。約翰，是傑米。謝謝你的問題。正如您在本季度的費用數字中看到的那樣，我們確實在技術成本方面持續增加，這最終是一件好事，因為這意味著我們正在完成任務，並且我們將繼續跟踪今年的所有截止日期。我們在第三季度有一個新的分類賬，隨後是 CD 平台，以及在整個商業業務中繼續推出 Encino 平台。

And then we're really, at this point, about halfway through the game because 2024, 2025 has additional deadlines associated with it on ATM and TM billing as well as the core checking conversion. But so far, so good. We do capitalize on all of the appropriate accounting standards on the total spend here. I think the spend over a multiyear period could reach as much as $100 million, of which well less than half would be capitalized. And from there, I think you just continue to see us invest in cloud core technology, and that's part of what's driving that expense growth you're seeing both in the first quarter and for the year.

然後我們真的，在這一點上，遊戲已經進行了一半，因為 2024 年、2025 年在 ATM 和 TM 計費以及核心檢查轉換方面有額外的截止日期。但到目前為止，還不錯。我們確實在此處的總支出上利用了所有適當的會計準則。我認為多年期間的支出可能高達 1 億美元，其中不到一半將被資本化。從那裡，我認為你只是繼續看到我們投資於雲核心技術，這是推動你在第一季度和今年看到的費用增長的部分原因。

Our next question comes from the line of Manan Gosalia from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Manan Gosalia。

I was wondering if you can give us some more color on why you expect deposits to grow as we get into the remainder of the year? What are you seeing in your underlying account openings and conversations with clients that gives you the confidence in that outcome? I guess my question is, why shouldn't some of these new deposits just go back to the banks where they have longer relationships once the volatility in the system settles out?

我想知道你是否可以給我們更多關於為什麼你預計存款會隨著我們進入今年剩餘時間而增長的顏色？您在基礎開戶和與客戶的對話中看到了什麼讓您對結果充滿信心？我想我的問題是，為什麼這些新存款中的一些不應該在系統的波動性平息後直接回到與它們有長期合作關係的銀行？

Yes, good question. So I don't think we took a lot of deposit share from banks that were nonoperational in nature. The new accounts that we opened, Manan, were linked to treasury management sales and inclusive of our embedded banking business and we had been on the sales pipeline in some cases for as long as 18 months. And there had been technology work that ended up getting accelerated.

是的，好問題。所以我不認為我們從本質上是非經營性的銀行那裡拿走了很多存款份額。我們開設的新賬戶 Manan 與資金管理銷售相關，包括我們的嵌入式銀行業務，在某些情況下我們已經在銷售管道中長達 18 個月。並且有一些技術工作最終得到了加速。

In a handful of other places, like we do a very good business with payroll processors, we were a net beneficiary of folks who needed the payments infrastructure that Fifth Third provides. And those relationships, which were not on the sales pipeline previously moved. And because they're embedded in the day-to-day operations of the business, they tend to be very sticky.

在少數其他地方，比如我們在薪資處理方面做得很好，我們是需要 Fifth Third 提供的支付基礎設施的人們的淨受益者。而那些不在銷售渠道中的關係以前已經轉移了。而且因為它們嵌入到企業的日常運營中，所以它們往往非常粘。

I mean, look, you kind of have to go back to first principles for us on the deposits to say why do we believe that we can continue to be stable or to generate a little bit of growth? So a big part of the growth that we're generating on the retail side is coming out of that sort of sustained primary household growth that we've been able to generate. We've run in the 2% to 3% range for several years now. We've breached 3% in the first quarter. We were running faster than that. And that is led by the Southeast markets, where I think the year-over-year growth rate was like 7.3%. So very significant there.

我的意思是，你看，你必須回到我們關於存款的首要原則，說為什麼我們相信我們可以繼續保持穩定或產生一點增長？因此，我們在零售方面產生的增長的很大一部分來自我們能夠產生的那種持續的主要家庭增長。幾年來，我們一直在 2% 到 3% 的範圍內運行。我們在第一季度突破了 3%。我們跑得比那快。這是由東南市場引領的，我認為該市場的同比增長率約為 7.3%。那裡非常重要。

In addition to that, the branches we've added in the Southeast are driving really, really strong growth. So if you look at the Southeast overall same-store sales and deposits, were plus 5% year-over-year for the quarter. If you include the de novos, the markets like North and South Carolina, Georgia and Florida in totality grew 10% year-over-year. And if you just annualize the first quarter, over the fourth quarter, they grew 20% in terms of deposits. So really strong production coming from those investments.

除此之外，我們在東南部增加的分支機構正在推動非常非常強勁的增長。因此，如果您查看東南部整體同店銷售額和存款，本季度同比增長 5%。如果你包括從頭開始，北卡羅來納州和南卡羅來納州、佐治亞州和佛羅里達州等市場總體同比增長 10%。如果你只是將第一季度的年度化，那麼在第四季度，他們的存款增長了 20%。這些投資帶來的產量非常強勁。

And then I think we've talked a lot about the treasury management business, but that on the commercial side of the equation continues to be the thing that is the driver. We have a disclosure in one of the slides here on the percentage of commercial relationships that are linked to treasury management, it's about 88%, if memory serves, maybe Slide 9.

然後我認為我們已經談了很多關於資金管理業務的問題，但在等式的商業方面仍然是驅動因素。我們在這裡的一張幻燈片中披露了與資金管理相關的商業關係的百分比，大約為 88%，如果沒記錯的話，可能是幻燈片 9。

And then the length of the balance weighted average relationship tenure in commercial is 24 years. So we're not talking about people who were parking money here because we were a rate payer. I think we have only about $0.5 billion in total in all deposits in the bank that are priced ahead of Fed funds. And it's reasonable to assume that whether it's because the Fed raises or because we take other actions that, that number is going to be 0 by the end of June. So we just have a very stable deposit base.

然後商業中的平衡加權平均關係期限為 24 年。所以我們不是在談論因為我們是納稅人而把錢放在這裡的人。我認為在銀行的所有存款中，我們只有大約 5 億美元的價格先於聯邦基金定價。並且可以合理地假設，無論是因為美聯儲加息還是因為我們採取了其他行動，到 6 月底該數字都將變為 0。所以我們只有一個非常穩定的存款基礎。

The growth is coming from investments that are multiyear in nature and that are proven in terms of their ability to support the company and very little deposit gathering activity that would have been uneconomic relative to alternative funding sources, less than $0.5 billion, I believe, in total.

增長來自本質上是多年期的投資，這些投資在支持公司的能力方面得到了證明，而且很少有存款收集活動相對於替代資金來源來說是不經濟的，我相信不到 5 億美元，全部的。

Got it. Very helpful. And then maybe as a follow-up, and maybe the response to this is the same. But as I look at the deposit beta assumptions on Slide 11, they look pretty conservative relative to the rest of the Street. But if I look at the slope of that line, it is flattening as we look into the forecast period. So why shouldn't we expect the same rate of change that we've seen more recently?

知道了。很有幫助。然後可能作為後續行動，也許對此的回應是一樣的。但當我查看幻燈片 11 上的存款貝塔假設時，它們相對於華爾街其他人看起來相當保守。但是，如果我看一下那條線的斜率，就會發現隨著我們研究預測期，它正在變平。那麼，為什麼我們不應該期待我們最近看到的相同變化率呢？

Yes. Our base view, as I said in our prepared remarks, or the midpoint of our guide is a 47% beta, and that is really driven by our assumption that the battle for retail deposits continues to be very competitive and that, that retail beta actually doubles over the course of the year. If that were to not happen, then we would be at the low end.

是的。我們的基本觀點，正如我在準備好的評論中所說，或我們指南的中點是 47% 的 beta，這實際上是由我們的假設驅動的，即零售存款的競爭仍然非常激烈，而且零售 beta 實際上在一年中翻了一番。如果那沒有發生，那麼我們將處於低端。

So on the commercial and wealth and asset management side, the betas have been running 65% to 70%, and those betas will flatten out as the Fed stops hiking. So part of what's assumed in the slide is that the Fed gets to 5.25% and stops. And so that would have a flattening effect. And the reality here is that there's a lot of uncertainty as to how competition is going to behave over the next several quarters. And you can see on the slide thus far, we've done well versus the industry from a deposit beta standpoint, but we definitely want to defend our book as well as continue to have strong new customer acquisition.

因此，在商業、財富和資產管理方面，貝塔係數一直在 65% 到 70% 之間，隨著美聯儲停止加息，這些貝塔係數將趨於平緩。因此，幻燈片中的部分假設是美聯儲達到 5.25% 並停止。所以這會產生扁平化效果。而這裡的現實是，關於未來幾個季度的競爭將如何表現存在很多不確定性。到目前為止，你可以在幻燈片上看到，從存款貝塔的角度來看，我們在行業中做得很好，但我們絕對想捍衛我們的賬簿，並繼續獲得強大的新客戶。

Our next question comes from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

Just 2 quick follow-ups. One on credit, I think, Jamie, you mentioned about 80% base case, unemployment 4%. Give us a sense of just sensitivity if that 4% were to be 5%, what does that mean for your allowance or the consumer allowance?

只需 2 次快速跟進。我認為，傑米，你提到了大約 80% 的基本情況，失業率為 4%。如果 4% 為 5%，請給我們一種公正的敏感性，這對您的津貼或消費者津貼意味著什麼？

Yes, the ACL would go up $250 million for every 1%, assuming all other assumptions stay as is.

是的，假設所有其他假設保持不變，ACL 每增加 1% 就會增加 2.5 億美元。

Okay. Helpful. And other quick follow-up going back to Tim on your comments around capital. And given just the uncertainty around regulations, macro economy, the 9.25% CET1 like, do you -- should we anticipate that drift higher at least for the next few quarters until there's more visibility? Or do you expect to be more proactive and return back to sort of buybacks in the back half of the year?

好的。有幫助。和其他快速跟進回到蒂姆關於你對資本的評論。考慮到監管、宏觀經濟和 9.25% CET1 的不確定性，你——我們是否應該預計至少在接下來的幾個季度會走高，直到有更多的能見度？還是您希望在今年下半年更加積極主動地進行回購？

Yes. I think just given the guidance that we provided, if you assume no buybacks in the second quarter, which is right, it would imply we get to 9.5% by June 30, Ebrahim. Jamie and I both feel confident we could run the business at 9.25%. It just feels prudent at this point in time to make sure that the environment does fully settle out before we resume repurchases.

是的。我認為，根據我們提供的指導，如果你假設第二季度沒有回購，這是正確的，這意味著我們將在 6 月 30 日之前達到 9.5%，Ebrahim。傑米和我都相信我們可以以 9.25% 的利率經營業務。在我們恢復回購之前，確保環境確實完全穩定下來，在這個時間點感覺很謹慎。

And just on the environment. I think last quarter, you talked about things worsening maybe back half of this year into '24. Do you have any better visibility in terms of just the shape of the credit cycle, how deep it could be and just when we begin to actually see the first sort of deterioration show up in the numbers on credit metrics?

而只是在環境上。我想上個季度，你談到了今年下半年到 24 年可能會惡化的情況。就信貸週期的形狀、它可能有多深以及我們何時開始真正看到信貸指標的數字出現第一種惡化而言，你是否有更好的可見性？

We continue to think the back half of this year to the beginning of next is probably the right period. I think we have been operating under the belief that some of the rosier data that came out in the winter was a little bit of a head fake because you had unseasonably good weather and the byproduct of that was you had spending and a variety of other indicators flash more positive than I think people had anticipated. And in part, that's why you saw the Fed ramp-up rhetoric.

我們仍然認為今年下半年到明年年初可能是合適的時期。我認為我們一直相信冬季出現的一些樂觀數據有點像假的，因為你的天氣異常好，副產品是你有支出和各種其他指標比我認為人們預期的更積極。在某種程度上，這就是為什麼你會看到美聯儲的升溫言論。

Again, the ISM indices are, from my point of view, the best thing to watch here. They certainly are in our footprint, and they all are signaling a slowdown. And the Fed is not going to be able to relent and get inflation under control, just based on what we hear from clients without sticking at a 5-plus level for some extended period of time. And when that happens, that's very restrictive, right? Things are going to break.

同樣，在我看來，ISM 指數是這裡最值得關注的指標。它們肯定在我們的足跡中，它們都在發出放緩的信號。美聯儲將無法僅根據我們從客戶那裡聽到的情況而放鬆並控制通貨膨脹，而不會在較長一段時間內保持在 5 以上的水平。當這種情況發生時，這是非常嚴格的，對吧？事情要破裂了。

My own view is that this is -- we're likely to return to a period where there's more regional divergence than you've seen in the most recent 2 cycles. I am very happy to be a Midwest and Southeast bank is a moment like the data that's come out of the Census Bureau on spending on factories, right? We had $108 billion in spending on factories last year, which was an all-time record. Financial times did nice work on commitments that have been made. There's more than $200 billion in capital commitments. This is all stuff that's tied to the $2 trillion that the government intends to invest in rebuilding supply chains here in the U.S.

我自己的觀點是——我們很可能會回到區域差異比最近兩個週期更多的時期。我很高興成為一家中西部和東南部的銀行，就像人口普查局關於工廠支出的數據一樣，對吧？去年我們在工廠方面的支出為 1080 億美元，創歷史新高。 《金融時報》在兌現承諾方面做得很好。有超過 2000 億美元的資本承諾。這一切都與政府打算投資重建美國供應鏈的 2 萬億美元有關。

And if you just look at the manufacturing jobs that were added last year, like there were 348,000 manufacturing jobs added in the U.S. compared to, I think, 6,000 in 2010 as an example, and 60% of those were in our footprint. So the markets that are going to benefit from the government's investment in infrastructure and domestic supply chain and that sort of broader trend in reshoring are going to do better than markets that were more reliant on technology and professional services or that have more profound challenges as it relates to state budget deficits or challenged city centers. They're just going to be a divergence that materializes there.

如果你只看去年增加的製造業工作崗位，比如美國增加了 348,000 個製造業工作崗位，而我認為 2010 年為 6,000 個，例如，其中 60% 在我們的足跡中。因此，將從政府對基礎設施和國內供應鏈的投資以及更廣泛的回流趨勢中受益的市場，將比更依賴技術和專業服務或面臨更深刻挑戰的市場表現更好與國家預算赤字或受到挑戰的市中心有關。它們將成為在那裡具體化的分歧。

So I at least think you should be more focused on regional economic data than on the economy overall as you think about where losses may materialize.

因此，至少我認為，在考慮損失可能出現的地方時，你應該更關注區域經濟數據，而不是整體經濟。

Our final question comes from the line of Christopher Marinac from Janney Montgomery Scott.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Janney Montgomery Scott 的 Christopher Marinac。

Tim, just wanted to ask about dividend finance kind of skewing the loan growth this year, maybe in a positive way to where the loan growth ex dividend is very conservative. Is that a fair way of thinking it through?

蒂姆，只是想問一下股息融資在某種程度上扭曲了今年的貸款增長，也許以一種積極的方式使貸款增長不包括股息非常保守。這是一種公平的思考方式嗎？

Yes. Yes. The 2 areas of the portfolio where there is any material loan growth this year, Chris, are the dividend finance. That portfolio as we see the benefit of the balances rolling on because we are portfolioing their production, they were originated to sell before we bought them. And then in C&I, which is really a good core steady production in the middle market, where a part because of the dynamics around manufacturing, you're seeing really solid production out of our legacy markets in the Midwest and the continued growth and provide, right, which is, of course, linked to health care and primarily nonelective dental and vet.

是的。是的。克里斯，今年投資組合中有任何實質性貸款增長的 2 個領域是股息融資。正如我們看到的那樣，由於我們正在對他們的生產進行投資組合，所以我們看到了余額滾動的好處，他們最初是為了在我們購買之前出售。然後在 C&I，這在中間市場確實是一個很好的核心穩定生產，部分原因是圍繞製造業的動態，你會看到我們在中西部的傳統市場的穩定生產以及持續增長和提供，是的，當然，這與醫療保健以及主要是非選擇性牙科和獸醫有關。

Got it. I mean the rest is just rolling off and not contributing...

知道了。我的意思是剩下的只是滾動而不是貢獻......

Stable or in modest decline.

穩定或小幅下降。

I would now like to turn the call over to Chris Doll for closing remarks.

我現在想把電話轉給 Chris Doll 作結束語。

Thanks, Manny, and thanks, everyone, for your interest in Fifth Third. Please contact the IR department if you have any follow-up questions. Manny, you can now disconnect the call.

謝謝，Manny，也謝謝大家對 Fifth Third 的關注。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯繫 IR 部門。曼尼，你現在可以掛斷電話了。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們先生們，謝謝你們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。