(FITBO) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Dennis, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Fifth Third Bancorp Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Chris Doll, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

早上好。我叫丹尼斯，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線員。此時，我想歡迎大家參加 Fifth Third Bancorp 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係總監 Chris Doll。請繼續。

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Fifth Third's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. This morning, our President and CEO, Tim Spence; and CFO, Jamie Leonard, will provide an overview of our third quarter results and outlook. .

大家，早安。歡迎來到 Fifth Third 的 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。今天上午，我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Tim Spence；首席財務官 Jamie Leonard 將概述我們第三季度的業績和展望。 .

Our Chief Credit Officer, Richard Stein; and Treasurer, Bryan Preston have also joined us for the Q&A portion of the call. Please review the cautionary statements on our materials, which can be found in our earnings release and presentation. These materials contain information regarding the use of non-GAAP measures and reconciliations to the GAAP results as well as forward-looking statements about Fifth Third's performance. These statements speak only as of October 20, 2022, and Fifth Third undertakes no obligation to update them. Following prepared remarks by Tim and Jamie, we will open the call up for questions. With that, let me turn it over to Tim.

我們的首席信貸官 Richard Stein；財務主管布萊恩·普雷斯頓 (Bryan Preston) 也加入了我們的電話問答環節。請查看我們材料中的警示性聲明，這些聲明可以在我們的收益發布和演示文稿中找到。這些材料包含有關使用非 GAAP 措施和與 GAAP 結果進行調節的信息，以及有關 Fifth Third 業績的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明僅在 2022 年 10 月 20 日生效，Fifth Third 不承擔更新它們的義務。在 Tim 和 Jamie 準備好發言後，我們將開始提問。有了這個，讓我把它交給蒂姆。

Thanks, Chris, and thank you all for joining us this morning. Before we turn to our financial results, I'd like to take a moment to express our sympathies for all those across the state of Florida who are impacted by Hurricane Ian. I would also like to thank our employees for answering the call to take care of our customers and communities in the state.

謝謝，克里斯，感謝大家今天早上加入我們。在我們討論財務結果之前，我想花點時間對佛羅里達州所有受颶風伊恩影響的人表示同情。我還要感謝我們的員工響應號召，照顧我們在該州的客戶和社區。

In the days since the hurricane made landfall, our employees have made nearly 90,000 customer wellness calls, reopened all our branches and staffed Fifth Third financial empowerment [bus] to enable customers who lost power and Internet access to apply for FEMA disaster relief. For those of you listening today, your resilience in the face of this natural disaster is awe inspiring. Thank you for living our core values.

在颶風登陸後的幾天裡，我們的員工撥打了近 90,000 通客戶健康電話，重新開放了我們所有的分支機構，並配備了 Fifth Third financial empowerment [bus] 人員，使斷電和無法上網的客戶能夠申請 FEMA 救災。對於今天聆聽的人來說，你們在面對這場自然災害時的韌性令人敬畏。感謝您踐行我們的核心價值觀。

Turning to the financials. Earlier today, we reported third quarter results that reflect our commitment to strong performance business cycle. We generated record adjusted revenue of $2.2 billion, up 10% year-over-year. Credit quality remained strong, reflected in charge-offs at the low end of our previous guidance. We also generated 10 points of positive operating leverage compared to the year ago quarter and achieved one of our lowest adjusted efficiency ratios over the past decade at 53%.

轉向財務。今天早些時候，我們報告了第三季度業績，反映了我們對強勁業績商業周期的承諾。我們創造了創紀錄的調整後收入 22 億美元，同比增長 10%。信貸質量保持強勁，這反映在我們之前指導的低端沖銷。與去年同期相比，我們還產生了 10 個正經營槓桿，並實現了 53% 的過去十年調整後最低效率比率之一。

Most all of our core return measures remain in the top quartile among peers, including an ROA of approximately 1.3% and an ROTCE, excluding AOCI of, nearly 18%. We also produced strong organic growth during the quarter, sustaining a record pace in adding new quality relationships in commercial and growing new households by 3% across our footprint and consumer.

我們的大部分核心回報指標在同行中保持在前四分之一，包括約 1.3% 的 ROA 和近 18% 的 ROTCE（不包括 AOCI）。我們在本季度還實現了強勁的有機增長，在我們的足跡和消費者中增加了新的優質商業關係並增加了 3% 的新家庭，保持了創紀錄的速度。

Our 2 recent fintech acquisitions, Dividend and Provide, each achieved record quarterly origination levels. Turning to the balance sheet. Loan growth was solid across our franchise. Our commercial loan production remains well diversified and supported by the bank's strategic investments. Within our regions, loan production in our Southeast and other expansion markets roughly equaled our Midwest markets. Among our verticals, new production was strongest in energy, including renewables, with a 70% increase in origination volume compared to the year ago quarter.

我們最近的 2 筆金融科技收購，股息和提供，每筆都達到了創紀錄的季度發起水平。轉向資產負債表。我們的特許經營貸款增長穩健。我們的商業貸款生產仍然多元化，並得到銀行戰略投資的支持。在我們的區域內，我們東南部和其他擴張市場的貸款產量大致相當於我們的中西部市場。在我們的垂直行業中，新能源生產最為強勁，包括可再生能源，與去年同期相比，原始產量增長了 70%。

Small business production was led by Provide, which doubled year-over-year. Average consumer loans were up 1% led by Dividend Finance, a top 5 national residential solar lender, and a return to growth in home equity. Dividend recently announced several key national partnerships, which will continue to accelerate growth in the future.

小型企業生產由 Provide 引領，同比翻了一番。在全國排名前 5 的住宅太陽能貸款機構 Dividend Finance 的帶動下，平均消費貸款增長了 1%，並且房屋淨值恢復增長。股息最近宣布了幾項重要的國家合作夥伴關係，這些合作夥伴關係將在未來繼續加速增長。

Switching to deposits. Consistent with prior guidance, our third quarter end-of-period balances were stable, with average balances down nearly $5 billion due primarily to the full quarter impact of our delivered exits in the second quarter. In consumer, we grew households 3% year-over-year led by our Southeast markets, which grew 8%. We generated consumer transaction balance growth of 5% compared to last year and opened a 1 millionth Momentum Banking account in the quarter.

轉向存款。與之前的指導一致，我們第三季度的期末餘額穩定，平均餘額下降近 50 億美元，這主要是由於我們在第二季度交付的退出對整個季度的影響。在消費者方面，我們的家庭同比增長 3%，其中東南市場增長 8%。與去年相比，我們的消費者交易餘額增長了 5%，並在本季度開設了第 100 萬個 Momentum 銀行賬戶。

In commercial, our deposit franchise is anchored by our peer-leading treasury management business. We ranked #2 through #9 nationally in most TM payment types as shown in EY's annual cash management survey. We have a strong deposit base and new relationship growth engines in both our consumer and commercial business lines, and we expect the positive production momentum that we built during the third quarter to produce growth in the fourth quarter.

在商業領域，我們的存款業務以我們同行領先的資金管理業務為基礎。如安永年度現金管理調查所示，我們在大多數 TM 支付類型中在全國排名第 2 至第 9。我們在消費者和商業業務線都有強大的存款基礎和新的關係增長引擎，我們預計我們在第三季度建立的積極生產勢頭將在第四季度產生增長。

Turning to the income statement. The strength and diversification of our fee-based businesses throughout the bank has helped to partially offset the market headwinds all banks are experiencing. In commercial, our gross treasury management revenue increased 6% compared to the year ago quarter, led by our Expert AR and Expert AP solutions.

轉向損益表。我們全行收費業務的實力和多元化有助於部分抵消所有銀行正在經歷的市場逆風。在商業方面，在我們的 Expert AR 和 Expert AP 解決方案的帶動下，我們的財務管理總收入與去年同期相比增長了 6%。

Our capital markets revenue associated with helping clients (inaudible) exposure to rates, commodities and foreign exchange increased 30% compared to the year ago quarter. In consumer, we generated strong mortgage revenue growth this quarter in an otherwise challenging environment, thanks to the strength of our mortgage servicing operation.

我們與幫助客戶（聽不清）接觸利率、商品和外匯相關的資本市場收入與去年同期相比增長了 30%。在消費者方面，由於我們抵押貸款服務業務的實力，本季度我們在充滿挑戰的環境中實現了強勁的抵押貸款收入增長。

Fifth Third is a low-cost, high-quality servicer, one of the only banks to be recognized as both a Fannie Mae STAR servicer and a HUD grade A servicer. The actions we took to grow our MSR portfolio nearly 30% since the end of 2019 will continue to pay dividends going forward. Finally, in Wealth Management, excluding tax payments, we have generated positive AUM inflows in every one of the past 13 quarters, and we will recognize this quarter as the best private bank for high net worth clients by the Digital Banker and Global Private Banker magazine.

Fifth Third 是一家低成本、高質量的服務商，是僅有的幾家同時被認定為 Fannie Mae STAR 服務商和 HUD A 級服務商的銀行之一。自 2019 年底以來，我們為將 MSR 投資組合增長近 30% 而採取的行動將繼續為未來帶來回報。最後，在財富管理方面，不包括納稅，我們在過去 13 個季度的每個季度都產生了正的 AUM 流入，我們將在本季度被 Digital Banker 和 Global Private Banker 雜誌評為高淨值客戶的最佳私人銀行.

We continue to focus on maintaining our culture of prudent expense management across the company, while investing in organic growth and tech modernization initiatives. In the third quarter, we made meaningful progress in our technology and platform modernization journey. We successfully migrated our core platforms to a new data center and have now virtualized over 90% of our servers, strengthening network resiliency, increasing speed and capacity and improving the experience for both our customers and employees.

我們繼續專注於在整個公司內保持謹慎的費用管理文化，同時投資於有機增長和技術現代化計劃。第三季度，我們在技術和平台現代化進程中取得了有意義的進展。我們成功地將我們的核心平台遷移到一個新的數據中心，現在已經虛擬化了 90% 以上的服務器，增強了網絡彈性，提高了速度和容量，並改善了我們客戶和員工的體驗。

In the fourth quarter, we'll relaunch our mobile app and a new cloud-based architecture and with several improvements to the user experience. Credit quality remains strong throughout the bank. Our charge-off ratio was 21 basis points for the quarter, and our nonperforming asset ratio declined compared to the prior quarter. We remain cautious with respect to the broader economy given persistent inflation, the Fed's aggressive monetary policies and global growth concerns. We've continually improved the granularity and diversification of our loan portfolio with a focus on high-quality relationships and companies with more diversified resilient business models.

在第四季度，我們將重新啟動我們的移動應用程序和一個新的基於雲的架構，並對用戶體驗進行多項改進。整個銀行的信貸質量依然強勁。本季度我們的註銷率為 21 個基點，不良資產率與上一季度相比有所下降。鑑於持續的通脹、美聯儲激進的貨幣政策和全球增長擔憂，我們對更廣泛的經濟保持謹慎。我們不斷改進貸款組合的粒度和多樣化，重點關注高質量的關係和具有更多樣化、有彈性的商業模式的公司。

We continue to proactively monitor our portfolio for signs of potential stress. And regardless of what comes, I'm confident in our ability to outperform peers through the full economic cycle. With respect to capital, we announced a 10% increase to the quarterly common dividend in September. We continue to accrete capital with strong PPNR growth and expect to achieve a 9.25% CET1 by year-end. We also expect to resume share repurchases in the first quarter of 2023, subject to economic conditions.

我們繼續主動監控我們的投資組合以尋找潛在壓力的跡象。無論發生什麼，我都相信我們有能力在整個經濟周期中超越同行。在資本方面，我們宣布 9 月份的季度普通股息增加 10%。我們繼續通過強勁的 PPNR 增長增持資本，並預計到年底將實現 9.25% 的 CET1。我們還預計將在 2023 年第一季度恢復股票回購，具體視經濟狀況而定。

We continue to make decisions with the long term in mind, hold ourselves accountable to what we say we are going to do and invest in product and service innovations that generate long-term sustainable value for customers, communities, employees and shareholders.

我們繼續從長遠考慮做出決策，對我們所說的我們將要做的事情負責，並投資於為客戶、社區、員工和股東創造長期可持續價值的產品和服務創新。

With that, I will now turn it over to Jamie to provide additional detail on our third quarter financial results and our current outlook.

有了這個，我現在將把它交給傑米，以提供有關我們第三季度財務業績和我們當前前景的更多細節。

Thank you, Tim, and thank all of you for joining us today. We are pleased with our third quarter results. We generated strong loan growth in both commercial and consumer categories and generated record adjusted revenue. NII was positively impacted by higher market rates, fee income was resilient despite the market-related headwinds and expenses were well controlled while we continue to reinvest in our businesses.

謝謝你，蒂姆，感謝大家今天加入我們。我們對第三季度的業績感到滿意。我們在商業和消費類別中產生了強勁的貸款增長，並產生了創紀錄的調整後收入。 NII 受到較高市場利率的積極影響，儘管存在與市場相關的不利因素，但費用收入仍具有彈性，並且在我們繼續對我們的業務進行再投資的同時，費用得到了很好的控制。

Consequently, we achieved a 53% adjusted efficiency ratio. Also, excluding net securities losses related to 2 legacy venture capital investments, we generated core PPNR growth of 13% compared to last quarter and 27% compared to last year. Net interest income was approximately $1.5 billion, a record quarter and increased 12% sequentially and 26% year-over-year, primarily attributable to the benefit of higher market rates, growth in commercial loan balances and the full quarter benefit of securities purchased in the second quarter.

因此，我們實現了 53% 的調整後效率比。此外，排除與 2 項傳統風險投資相關的淨證券損失，我們的核心 PPNR 與上一季度相比增長了 13%，與去年相比增長了 27%。淨利息收入約為 15 億美元，創歷史新高，環比增長 12%，同比增長 26%，這主要得益於更高的市場利率、商業貸款餘額的增長以及在整個季度購買證券的收益第二季度。

Our NIM expanded 30 basis points during the quarter while interest-bearing core deposit costs increased 32 basis points to 41 basis points in total this quarter. This equates to a cycle-to-date deposit beta of 16% thus far on the first 225 basis points of rate hikes. Total reported noninterest income decreased just 1% sequentially.

我們的 NIM 在本季度擴大了 30 個基點，而本季度計息核心存款成本增加了 32 個基點至 41 個基點。這相當於加息前 225 個基點的周期至今存款貝塔值為 16%。報告的非利息總收入環比僅下降 1%。

We generated improved mortgage banking and leasing business fee income, which was offset by softer results in market-sensitive businesses, including capital markets and the impact of higher earnings credit rates in treasury management. Noninterest expense increased 5% compared to the prior quarter, driven by an increase in compensation and benefits expense, including the impact of the July minimal wage increase to $20 per hour, higher technology and communications expense, reflecting our focus on technology modernization initiatives and the full quarter impact of the dividend finance acquisition.

我們產生了改善的抵押銀行和租賃業務費用收入，但被市場敏感業務的疲軟業績所抵消，包括資本市場和資金管理中較高的收益信貸利率的影響。與上一季度相比，非利息費用增加了 5%，這是受薪酬和福利費用增加的推動，包括 7 月最低工資增加到每小時 20 美元的影響、更高的技術和通信費用，這反映了我們對技術現代化計劃的關注以及股息融資收購的整個季度影響。

Expenses in the quarter included a $7 million benefit related to the mark-to-market impact of nonqualified deferred compensation with a corresponding offset in securities losses. This compares to a $27 million benefit in the prior quarter. Excluding the NQDC impacts from both periods, total noninterest expense increased $35 million or 3%.

本季度的費用包括 700 萬美元的收益，該收益與不合格遞延補償的按市值計算的影響相關，並相應抵消了證券損失。相比之下，上一季度的收益為 2700 萬美元。排除這兩個時期的 NQDC 影響，非利息支出總額增加了 3500 萬美元或 3%。

Noninterest expense was flat compared to the year ago quarter despite the impacts of our fintech lending acquisitions of both Dividend and Provide. Moving to the balance sheet. Total average portfolio loans and leases increased 2% sequentially, including held-for-sale loans. Total average loans increased 1% compared to the prior quarter. Average total commercial portfolio loans and leases increased 2% compared to the prior quarter.

儘管我們的金融科技貸款收購了股息和提供的影響，但非利息支出與去年同期相比持平。轉到資產負債表。平均投資組合貸款和租賃總額環比增長 2%，其中包括持有待售貸款。與上一季度相比，平均貸款總額增加了 1%。與上一季度相比，平均商業組合貸款和租賃總額增長了 2%。

With muted payoffs and a stable revolver utilization rate of 37%, period end commercial loans increased 1% sequentially and 14% compared to the year ago quarter. Average total consumer portfolio loans and leases increased 1% compared to the prior quarter, driven by Dividend Finance, which, as a reminder, is recorded in other consumer loans as well as growth in residential mortgage.

由於收益低迷且循環利用率穩定在 37%，期末商業貸款環比增長 1%，與去年同期相比增長 14%。在股息融資的推動下，平均消費組合貸款和租賃總額比上一季度增長了 1%，提醒一下，這記錄在其他消費貸款以及住宅抵押貸款的增長中。

This growth was partially offset by a decline in indirect secured consumer loans. At quarter end, Dividend loan balances were approximately $1.4 billion. Average core deposits decreased 3% compared to both the year-ago quarter and the prior quarter, impacted by the intentional runoff of excess and higher cost commercial deposits in the second quarter and lower consumer interest checking balances in the third quarter.

這一增長部分被間接擔保消費貸款的下降所抵消。季度末，股息貸款餘額約為 14 億美元。平均核心存款與去年同期和上一季度相比下降了 3%，這是受到第二季度超額和成本較高的商業存款故意流失以及第三季度消費者利息支票餘額減少的影響。

Compared to the year-ago quarter, average commercial transaction deposits decreased 10%, while average consumer transaction deposits increased 5%, reflecting our continued success growing consumer households. We grew our securities portfolio approximately $1 billion during the third quarter compared to $6 billion in the prior quarter.

與去年同期相比，平均商業交易存款下降了 10%，而平均消費者交易存款增加了 5%，反映出我們不斷成功地擴大消費家庭。我們在第三季度增加了約 10 億美元的證券投資組合，而上一季度為 60 億美元。

We currently expect security portfolio balances to remain generally stable through the rest of the year. We have continued to focus on maintaining structure in the investment portfolio to provide stable and predictable cash flows. Our overall allocation to bullet and locked-out structures at quarter end remained at 67% and our duration declined to 5.5% in the current quarter compared to 5.8% in the prior quarter.

我們目前預計，在今年餘下時間裡，證券投資組合餘額將總體保持穩定。我們繼續專注於維持投資組合的結構，以提供穩定和可預測的現金流。我們在季度末對子彈和鎖定結構的總體配置保持在 67%，我們的持續時間在本季度下降至 5.5%，而上一季度為 5.8%。

Moving to credit. As Tim mentioned, credit trends remain healthy, and our key credit metrics remain well below normalized levels. The NPA ratio of 46 basis points was down 1 basis point sequentially. Our commercial NPA ratio has now declined for 8 consecutive quarters. The net charge-off ratio was flat sequentially at 21 basis points. The ratio of early stage loan delinquencies 30 to 89 days past due remained relatively stable sequentially, and the amount of loans 90 days past due was approximately 2/3 of what it was a year ago.

轉向信貸。正如 Tim 提到的，信用趨勢保持健康，我們的關鍵信用指標仍遠低於正常水平。 NPA 比率為 46 個基點，環比下降 1 個基點。我們的商業 NPA 比率現已連續 8 個季度下降。淨沖銷比率持平於 21 個基點。逾期30天至89天的早期貸款拖欠率環比保持相對穩定，逾期90天的貸款金額約為一年前的2/3。

We continue to closely monitor central business district hotels, nonprofit health care, including senior living and office CRE. We are also monitoring exposures where inflation and higher rates may cause stress, including the impact of changing consumer discretionary spending patterns as well as the ongoing monitoring of the leveraged loan portfolio. From a balance sheet management perspective, we have continually improved the granularity and diversification of our loan portfolio with a focus on high-quality commercial relationships and on homeowners, which are 85% of our consumer portfolio.

我們繼續密切關注中央商務區酒店、非營利性醫療保健，包括高級生活和辦公室 CRE。我們還在監控通貨膨脹和利率上升可能導致壓力的風險，包括不斷變化的消費者可自由支配支出模式的影響以及對槓桿貸款組合的持續監控。從資產負債表管理的角度來看，我們不斷提高貸款組合的粒度和多樣化，重點關注高質量的商業關係和房主，這占我們消費者組合的 85%。

We maintained the lowest overall portfolio concentrations in both commercial real estate and in non-prime borrowers among our peers. Through the Dividend and Provide acquisitions, we added granular fixed rate loan origination platforms. We have also focused on positioning our balance sheet to deliver strong, stable NII through the cycle. Our strong deposit franchise, our securities and cash flow hedge portfolios as well as the additions of Dividend and Provide lending capabilities should continue to position us to drive strong outcomes.

在我們的同行中，我們在商業房地產和非主要藉款人中保持最低的整體投資組合集中度。通過股息和提供收購，我們增加了精細的固定利率貸款發起平台。我們還專注於定位我們的資產負債表，以在整個週期內提供強大、穩定的 NII。我們強大的存款特許經營權、我們的證券和現金流對沖投資組合以及股息和提供貸款能力的增加應該繼續使我們能夠取得強勁的成果。

In the cash flow hedge portfolio, we have added an incremental $5 billion since the end of the second quarter, bringing the total cash flow hedges added this year to $15 billion. The combined securities and cash flow hedge positions will support NII through the end of the decade. Moving to the ACL. Our ACL build this quarter was $96 million, primarily reflecting loan growth as well as a slightly worsening economic outlook relative to June.

在現金流對沖投資組合中，我們自第二季度末以來增加了 50 億美元，使今年增加的現金流對沖總額達到 150 億美元。合併後的證券和現金流對沖頭寸將在本十年末支持 NII。移動到 ACL。本季度我們的 ACL 構建為 9600 萬美元，主要反映了貸款增長以及相對於 6 月份略微惡化的經濟前景。

Dividend finance loan growth contributed $63 million to this ACL build. Relative to the second quarter, the Moody's GDP growth forecasts are slightly stronger, while the unemployment and home price forecast have weakened in both the baseline and downside scenarios. Given our expected period-end loan growth, including stronger production from Dividend Finance, we currently expect a fourth quarter build to the ACL of approximately $100 million assuming no changes in the underlying economic scenarios.

股息融資貸款增長為 ACL 建設貢獻了 6300 萬美元。相對於第二季度，穆迪的 GDP 增長預測略微增強，而失業率和房價預測在基準情景和下行情景下均有所減弱。鑑於我們預期的期末貸款增長，包括股息融資的強勁生產，我們目前預計第四季度 ACL 將增加約 1 億美元，前提是基本經濟情景沒有變化。

The impact of the expected dividend loan originations to the ACL should be in the $80 million to $90 million range due to our improved loan growth expectations. Our economic scenarios incorporate several key risks that could exacerbate existing inflationary pressures and further strain supply chains, including continued aggressive rate hikes and quantitative tightening and labor supply constraints becoming more binding than originally anticipated.

由於我們提高了貸款增長預期，預期股息貸款發放對 ACL 的影響應在 8000 萬至 9000 萬美元之間。我們的經濟情景包含幾個可能加劇現有通脹壓力並進一步使供應鏈緊張的主要風險，包括持續激進的加息和量化緊縮以及勞動力供應限制變得比最初預期的更具約束力。

Our September 30th allowance incorporates our best estimate of the economic environment. Future baseline unemployment estimates may begin to be increasingly impacted by the Fed's aggressive monetary policies. Moving to capital. Our CET1 ratio ended the quarter at 9.1% compared to 9% in the quarter. The increase in capital was primarily due to our strong earnings capacity, partially offset by RWA growth, reflecting robust organic business opportunities.

我們 9 月 30 日的津貼包含了我們對經濟環境的最佳估計。未來的基線失業率估計可能會開始越來越受到美聯儲激進貨幣政策的影響。搬到首都。我們的 CET1 比率在本季度結束時為 9.1%，而本季度為 9%。資本增加主要是由於我們強大的盈利能力，部分被 RWA 增長所抵消，反映出強勁的有機商業機會。

Moving to our current outlook. For the fourth quarter of 2022, we expect average total loan balances to be stable to up 1% sequentially. We expect commercial loans to grow 1% reflecting strong pipelines in middle market and corporate banking and assuming commercial revolver utilization rates remained stable at 37%.

轉向我們目前的展望。對於 2022 年第四季度，我們預計平均總貸款餘額將穩定增長 1%。我們預計商業貸款將增長 1%，反映出中間市場和企業銀行業務的強大渠道，並假設商業循環利用率保持穩定在 37%。

We expect consumer balances to be stable down 1%, reflecting our decision to lower auto loan production to enhance our returns on capital and lower residential mortgage balances, partially offset by dividend loan originations of around $1 billion in the fourth quarter. From a funding perspective, we expect average core deposits to increase 1% to 2% sequentially. However, we do expect some continued migration from DDA into interest-bearing products. Wholesale funding balances should be stable given expected core deposit growth relative to our earning asset base.

我們預計消費者余額將穩定下降 1%，反映出我們決定降低汽車貸款產量以提高資本回報率和降低住宅抵押貸款餘額，這部分被第四季度約 10 億美元的股息貸款發放所抵消。從資金角度來看，我們預計平均核心存款將環比增長 1% 至 2%。但是，我們確實預計會有一些人繼續從 DDA 遷移到生息產品。鑑於相對於我們的盈利資產基礎的預期核心存款增長，批發資金餘額應該是穩定的。

Shifting to the income statement. We expect fourth quarter adjusted revenue growth of 6% compared to the third quarter, excluding the third quarter security losses associated with legacy venture equity investments. We expect NII to be up approximately 5% sequentially, assuming a 75 basis point hike in November and another 50 basis points in December.

轉移到損益表。我們預計第四季度調整後收入比第三季度增長 6%，不包括與傳統風險股權投資相關的第三季度安全損失。我們預計 NII 將連續上漲約 5%，假設 11 月加息 75 個基點，12 月再加息 50 個基點。

We expect a cumulative deposit beta of around 30% by year-end. This should result in interest-bearing core deposit costs rising from 41 basis points in the third quarter to the mid- to high 90 basis point area for the fourth quarter. We expect fourth quarter adjusted noninterest income to be up 6% to 7% compared to the third quarter or stable, excluding the impacts of the TRA.

我們預計到年底累計存款貝塔係數約為 30%。這應該會導致計息核心存款成本從第三季度的 41 個基點上升至第四季度的中高 90 個基點區域。我們預計第四季度調整後的非利息收入將比第三季度增長 6% 至 7% 或保持穩定，不包括 TRA 的影響。

We have a strong M&A advisory pipeline and expect to continue generating strong financial risk management revenue, which we expect will be offset by earnings credits and softer top line mortgage banking revenue, given the rate environment. We expect total adjusted noninterest expenses to be up 3% to 4% compared to the third quarter, reflecting continued investments in talent, technology and our Southeast branch expansion. Our guidance assumes we opened 17 new branches, 16 of which will be in our high-growth Southeast markets.

我們擁有強大的併購諮詢渠道，預計將繼續產生強勁的金融風險管理收入，考慮到利率環境，我們預計這將被盈利信貸和疲軟的頂線抵押貸款銀行收入所抵消。我們預計調整後的非利息支出總額將比第三季度增長 3% 至 4%，反映出對人才、技術和我們東南分公司擴張的持續投資。我們的指導假設我們開設了 17 家新分行，其中 16 家將位於我們高增長的東南市場。

Our fourth quarter guide implies stable expenses for 2022 on a full year basis compared to 2021 and 8% adjusted revenue growth, excluding securities losses, resulting in PPNR growth in the high teens. This will result in a mid-50s efficiency ratio for the full year, a 4-point improvement from 2021 and a fourth quarter efficiency ratio in the 51% to 52% range. We expect fourth quarter net charge-offs to be in the 20 to 25 basis point range, which will result in full year net charge-offs of approximately 20 basis points.

我們的第四季度指南表明，與 2021 年相比，2022 年全年支出穩定，調整後收入增長 8%（不包括證券損失），導致 PPNR 增長處於高位。這將使全年的效率比達到 50 年代中期，比 2021 年提高 4 個百分點，第四季度的效率比在 51% 至 52% 的範圍內。我們預計第四季度淨沖銷將在 20 至 25 個基點範圍內，這將導致全年淨沖銷約 20 個基點。

In summary, with our PPNR growth engine, disciplined credit risk management and commitment to delivering strong performance through the cycle, we believe we are well positioned to continue to generate long-term sustainable value for customers, communities, employees and shareholders.

總而言之，憑藉我們的 PPNR 增長引擎、嚴格的信用風險管理以及在整個週期內提供強勁業績的承諾，我們相信我們有能力繼續為客戶、社區、員工和股東創造長期可持續的價值。

With that, let me turn it over to Chris to open the call up for Q&A.

有了這個，讓我把它交給克里斯打開問答電話。

Thanks, Jamie. Before we start Q&A, given the time we have this morning, we ask that you limit yourself to 1 question and a follow-up and then return to the queue if you have additional questions. Operator, please open the call up for Q&A.

謝謝，傑米。在我們開始問答之前，考慮到我們今天早上的時間，我們要求您將自己限制在 1 個問題和一個後續問題上，如果您還有其他問題，請返回隊列。接線員，請打開電話進行問答。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

And your first question is from the line of Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler. .

你的第一個問題來自 Scott Siefers 和 Piper Sandler。 .

I was hoping you guys could sort of address the -- maybe, Jamie, that's for you, kind of walk through the puts and takes with Dividend Finance. I think since that closed, the origination expectations have been great and continue to increase, but so do the reserve build expectations. So maybe just some thoughts on how much longer will those related reserve builds last. And how is the overall accretion from that transaction trending relative to what you would have thought at announcement?

我希望你們能解決——也許，傑米，那是給你的，有點像看跌期權和股息融資。我認為自那次關閉以來，對發起的期望一直很高並且還在繼續增加，但儲備建設的期望也是如此。因此，也許只是一些關於這些相關儲備建設將持續多久的想法。與您在公告時的想法相比，該交易的整體增長趨勢如何？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Scott. It's a good one and timely because the dividend expectations on loan growth have continued to go up and up, their performance continues to be very strong from a loan origination standpoint. When we bought them, they were fifth in market share. Our best estimate is that they're top 3 in market share now today, and it's certainly a booming business given the rising energy costs.

是的。謝謝你的問題，斯科特。這是一個很好的時機，因為對貸款增長的股息預期一直在不斷上升，從貸款發放的角度來看，它們的表現仍然非常強勁。當我們購買它們時，它們的市場份額排名第五。我們最好的估計是，他們目前在市場份額中排名前三，鑑於能源成本不斷上升，這無疑是一項蓬勃發展的業務。

So with that, we had originally modeled a 5-year earn-back on the acquisition, that they'd be profitable in 2023 ex the ACL and in 2024 with the ACL and they're certainly tracking ahead of those expectations. Obviously, the challenge during this quarter. And as we look ahead, given their strong loan growth is the ACL build, the ACL build and the credit performance is in line with how we modeled the portfolio with the annual loss rates peaking at a 125 charge-off rate, give or take.

因此，我們最初為收購建模了 5 年的盈利回報，他們將在 2023 年前 ACL 和 2024 年通過 ACL 實現盈利，他們肯定會超越這些預期。顯然，本季度的挑戰。展望未來，鑑於他們強勁的貸款增長是 ACL 的構建，ACL 的構建和信用表現與我們對投資組合建模的方式一致，年損失率在 125 沖銷率時達到峰值，給予或接受。

But given the long-dated nature of the asset, it results in a much higher ACL build than some of our other loan categories. And so we're going to be providing at a pretty healthy rate in dollars given their strong loan production, and that could be $80 million to $90 million next quarter and perhaps every quarter in 2023 given that we expect $1 billion or more per quarter from them.

但鑑於資產的長期性質，它導致 ACL 構建比我們其他一些貸款類別高得多。因此，考慮到他們強勁的貸款產量，我們將以相當健康的速度提供美元，下個季度可能會達到 8000 萬至 9000 萬美元，並且可能在 2023 年每個季度提供 10 億美元或更多，因為我們預計每個季度將有 10 億美元或更多他們。

So I guess that's a long answer to say. It's a good problem to have in the long term because it's a high-returning asset, both from an NII perspective but also a return on the capital. It's just the unfortunate cost of providing life of loan losses at origination.

所以我想這是一個很長的答案。從長遠來看，這是一個很好的問題，因為它是一種高回報資產，無論是從 NII 的角度還是資本回報。這只是在發起時提供貸款損失壽命的不幸成本。

Okay. And then maybe the follow-up. You guys have really good common equity Tier 1 and are anticipating resuming share repurchase early next year, but the TCE ratio continues to [hit] from the AOCI. Maybe if you can sort of just discuss the extent to which TCE, if at all, weighs into your capital decisions.

好的。然後可能是後續行動。你們擁有非常好的一級普通股，並預計明年初恢復股票回購，但 TCE 比率繼續受到 AOCI 的影響。也許如果您可以討論一下 TCE（如果有的話）在多大程度上影響您的資本決策。

And I think one of the emergent questions at market is if investors are going to sort of rally behind share repurchase from a low starting point of TCE, so just curious to hear your thoughts there.

我認為市場上出現的一個新問題是，投資者是否會從 TCE 的低起點回購股票，所以很想听聽你的想法。

Well, thanks for the question because as you know, I do have some opinions on this topic and bear with me a moment while I walk through it because we run the company looking at metrics that both include and exclude AOCI, and we've been showing you both sets of metrics for better or for worse consistently over the past decade, whether that's ROTCE or tangible book value per share or TCE.

好吧，謝謝你提出這個問題，因為如你所知，我確實對這個話題有一些看法，請耐心等待我討論這個話題，因為我們經營公司時會查看包括和不包括 AOCI 的指標，而且我們一直在過去十年中，無論是 ROTCE 還是每股有形賬面價值，還是 TCE，都會向您展示兩組指標，無論是好是壞。

And when you look at the tangible book value per share, excluding AOCI, we actually grew it in the quarter and for the year, even with the Dividend Finance acquisition. So really, when it comes down to the lower TCE ratio and the tangible book value per share, including the AOCI, it really does come down to how the AOCI is moving.

當你查看不包括 AOCI 的每股有形賬面價值時，我們實際上在本季度和全年都實現了增長，即使收購了 Dividend Finance。所以說真的，當涉及到較低的 TCE 比率和每股有形賬面價值（包括 AOCI）時，它確實歸結為 AOCI 的走勢。

And so when Bryan and I talk about this and have been thinking through it, we think we're really mixing 2 issues into that 1 question. The first question when you parse it out is really based on how do I feel about our investment portfolio's positioning and performance. And I would answer that as I feel very good about how we are positioned and especially how we're positioned relative to peers.

因此，當我和 Bryan 談論這個問題並仔細思考時，我們認為我們實際上是在將 2 個問題混合到 1 個問題中。當你解析它時，第一個問題實際上是基於我對我們投資組合的定位和表現的看法。我會回答這個問題，因為我對我們的定位非常滿意，尤其是我們相對於同行的定位。

It would have been great to time the market perfectly and hit the very best entry points of course. But our 2 years of patience definitely paid off for us. On a relative basis, we continue to have one of the highest-yielding portfolios and among the lowest unrealized losses as a percent of total securities in the industry. So the potential TCE and AOCI issue from this perspective ultimately comes down to whether you have a low-quality or poorly structured investment portfolio that will incur losses in the future, we do not.

當然，如果能夠完美把握市場時機並觸及最佳切入點，那就太好了。但是我們 2 年的耐心肯定為我們帶來了回報。相對而言，我們繼續擁有收益率最高的投資組合之一，並且未實現損失佔行業總證券的百分比最低。因此，從這個角度來看，潛在的 TCE 和 AOCI 問題最終歸結為您是否擁有低質量或結構不良的投資組合，這些投資組合將來會蒙受損失，我們沒有。

We will accrete 45 to 50 basis points or about $1 billion of TCE per year going forward and do not expect to incur any losses in the portfolio. And as we've always said, given the high composition of floating rate loans on our balance sheet, the investment portfolio should act as a shock absorber in a falling rate environment. And we believe the nice duration and structure that we have in the portfolio will do just that.

我們將在未來每年增加 45 至 50 個基點或約 10 億美元的 TCE，並且預計不會在投資組合中造成任何損失。正如我們一直所說的那樣，鑑於我們資產負債表上浮動利率貸款的高構成，投資組合應該在利率下降的環境中充當減震器。我們相信我們在投資組合中擁有的良好期限和結構將做到這一點。

So then the second question that gets mixed into this is then should we be putting securities in HTM instead of AFS. And as we said before, as a Category 4 bank, the election to put the security into AFS or HTM really doesn't impact regulatory capital other than a small deferred tax asset impact, nor does it change the economics or the risk of an investment.

那麼混入其中的第二個問題是我們是否應該將證券放入 HTM 而不是 AFS。正如我們之前所說，作為一家第 4 類銀行，選擇將證券放入 AFS 或 HTM 實際上不會影響監管資本，除了對遞延稅資產的影響很小，也不會改變經濟或投資風險.

For the largest banks, clearly, there's value to minimizing the risk of regulatory capital volatility by using the held-to-maturity bucket. For banks like us, we believe the benefits of maintaining some flexibility to manage the portfolio through a volatile environment really does create value for us through the cycle.

顯然，對於最大的銀行來說，通過使用持有至到期桶來最大限度地降低監管資本波動的風險是有價值的。對於像我們這樣的銀行，我們相信在動蕩的環境中保持一定的靈活性來管理投資組合的好處確實確實在整個週期中為我們創造了價值。

And given that there's no change in the actual value of the security, simply based on the accounting classification of which the portfolio that we put the securities in, so it really does come down to do we think the company from a TCE or value perspective is worth less by simply fair valuing one line item in the balance sheet? Or is it worth less because we placed the security and AFS. And the answer to that, we believe, is clearly no.

鑑於證券的實際價值沒有變化，僅基於我們將證券放入的投資組合的會計分類，所以從 TCE 或價值的角度來看，我們確實認為公司是通過簡單地對資產負債表中的一個行項目進行公平估值來降低價值？或者它是否因為我們放置了安全性和 AFS 而變得不值錢。我們相信，答案顯然是否定的。

So our goal is always optimize the balance sheet to deliver long-term real economic value and not make decisions that optimize accounting outcomes over economic value. So with that, I apologize for what may have just been the longest answer in the history of earnings calls. But as you might imagine, we feel strongly about the topic.

因此，我們的目標始終是優化資產負債表以提供長期的實際經濟價值，而不是做出優化會計結果而不是經濟價值的決策。因此，對於可能是財報電話會議歷史上最長的回答，我深表歉意。但正如您想像的那樣，我們對這個話題感覺很強烈。

And if I can put a point on it, no, it has not factored into the decisions that we make on a day in, day out basis in the way that we run the company or as it relates to capital return. .

而且，如果我可以指出一點，不，它沒有考慮到我們每天以我們經營公司的方式或與資本回報相關的方式做出的決定。 .

Perfect. I appreciate that color. It's an interesting issue to say the least and is having kind of wide-ranging ramifications. I really appreciate that. .

完美的。我很欣賞那種顏色。至少可以說這是一個有趣的問題，並且具有廣泛的影響。我非常感謝。 .

Your next question is from the line of John Pancari with Evercore.

你的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 John Pancari。

If you can give us a little more color on your thoughts on deposit growth. I know that you indicated that you do expect growth in the fourth quarter, maybe you can help size up that level of growth. And then how do you think about growth into 2023, particularly given that you've completed the delivery deposit balance exits that you had talked about. So how you thinking about 2023, maybe also in the perspective of the noninterest-bearing mix as a percentage of the total, how you expect that shifting as well?

如果你能給我們更多關於你對存款增長的想法的顏色。我知道您表示您確實預計第四季度會出現增長，也許您可以幫助確定該增長水平。然後你如何看待到 2023 年的增長，特別是考慮到你已經完成了你所說的交付存款餘額退出。那麼你如何看待 2023 年，也許從無息組合佔總數的百分比的角度來看，你如何看待這種轉變？

Yes, Bryan, why don't you address the first part of the question, and then I'll talk a little bit about why we think we can grow deposits in 2023. So go ahead.

是的，布萊恩，你為什麼不解決問題的第一部分，然後我會談談為什麼我們認為我們可以在 2023 年增加存款。所以繼續吧。

Yes. I mean our goal is always to grow deposits and take share every year. We've obviously got a strong consumer household growth or investments in our southeast markets, our leading TM business. We have confidence that we can take share. We obviously have some full year headwinds on average balances due to the excess commercial balances. We intentionally let run off in 2Q. But we do expect to grow from these 3Q levels from into 4Q, probably up 1% to 2% kind of range. You obviously have normal seasonality that we should expect to benefit from a commercial perspective as we also continue to grow households and grow our commercial relationships.

是的。我的意思是我們的目標始終是每年增加存款並獲得份額。我們顯然在我們領先的 TM 業務東南市場有強勁的消費者家庭增長或投資。我們有信心可以分一杯羹。由於商業餘額過剩，我們全年的平均餘額顯然存在一些不利因素。我們故意讓第二季度跑掉。但我們確實希望從這些第三季度的水平增長到第四季度，可能增長 1% 到 2% 的範圍。你顯然有正常的季節性，我們應該期望從商業角度受益，因為我們也繼續增加家庭和發展我們的商業關係。

Yes. I think I just would add John, to put a point on it. We do feel good about our ability to grow deposits for the remainder of this year and as Bryan said, about our ability to grow deposits on an ongoing basis. If you just step back and look at the engines that drive deposit growth here, the integration of the branch and the digital offering has been very powerful for Fifth Third, right?

是的。我想我只想加上 John 來說明這一點。我們確實對我們在今年剩餘時間內增加存款的能力感到滿意，正如布萊恩所說，我們對我們持續增加存款的能力感到滿意。如果你退後一步看看推動存款增長的引擎，分支機構和數字產品的整合對 Fifth Third 來說非常強大，對吧？

And over the course of the past few years, the investments which we were making in the Southeast have really accelerated. And that is evident in the rate of growth that we see in those markets. Like I mentioned, 8% household growth as an example there. The only bank that has built more branches in the last 3 years in the Southeast and Fifth Third is JPMorgan Chase, okay?

在過去的幾年裡，我們在東南部的投資確實加速了。從我們在這些市場中看到的增長率可以看出這一點。就像我提到的，8% 的家庭增長就是一個例子。在過去的 3 年中，在東南部和第五三分之一建立了更多分支機構的銀行是摩根大通，好嗎？

So we have a very fresh branch network. We have another 20-plus branches that will be opened before the end of this year and are on pace to do another 35 next year, all of which are in really high-growth markets. I mentioned the millionth Momentum Banking household when it was opened in the third quarter of this year. I don't think I could overstate the way in which that sort of a product offering changes the nature of the relationship with the customer.

所以我們有一個非常新鮮的分支網絡。我們還有另外 20 多家分行將在今年年底前開業，併計劃明年再開設 35 家，所有這些都位於真正高增長的市場。我在今年第三季度開業時提到了第 100 萬戶 Momentum Banking。我不認為我可以誇大這種產品提供改變與客戶關係的性質的方式。

Like if you just assume the checking account has a $5,000 average balance, a point of interest on $5,000 equates to about $4 a month. And I mean think about how many other places you spend more than $4 a month and get less value than we're providing now in Momentum as it relates to helping you to manage cash flow and achieve savings goals and move money efficiently and otherwise.

就像假設支票賬戶的平均餘額為 5,000 美元一樣，5,000 美元的利息相當於每月 4 美元左右。我的意思是，想一想您每月花費超過 4 美元並獲得的價值低於我們現在在 Momentum 中提供的價值的地方有多少，因為它與幫助您管理現金流和實現儲蓄目標以及有效地轉移資金有關。

And I think that is going to be a very powerful driver of growth. It just makes those core retail deposits stickier than they were in the past. And lastly, then we talked about the treasury management business and they've shared in some of our investor conference presentations, this ratio of turnover to average balances in commercial. So if you just look at ACH volumes over average balances and compare that across banks in our peer group, fifth Third has by far and away the highest turnover, which is a really good thing because what that means is that the balances that are sitting here are being used to support the cash flow velocity of the business as opposed to being treated like an investment alternative, right?

我認為這將成為非常強大的增長動力。它只會讓這些核心零售存款比過去更具粘性。最後，我們談到了資金管理業務，他們在我們的一些投資者會議演講中分享了營業額與商業平均餘額的比率。因此，如果您只看 ACH 交易量與平均餘額的比值，並比較我們同行組中各銀行的交易量，那麼 Fifth Third 的營業額是迄今為止最高的，這確實是一件好事，因為這意味著這裡的餘額被用來支持企業的現金流速度，而不是被視為一種投資選擇，對吧？

And so if you take that as the foundation of the deposit business here, and take into account how hard it is to build those sorts of capabilities over a period of years, it's going to be a pretty powerful moat for the bank going forward. And I think we'll be able to grow from there.

因此，如果你把它作為這裡存款業務的基礎，並考慮到在幾年內建立這些能力有多麼困難，它將成為銀行未來的一個非常強大的護城河。我認為我們將能夠從那裡成長。

And then, John, on your DDA mix question, when we look back the last tightening cycle, our total DDA to total core deposits dropped 5 points from 35% to 30%. This cycle, we started at 38%, and we model a similar 5% decline, or I should say, we're forecasting a 5% decline.

然後，約翰，關於你的 DDA 組合問題，當我們回顧上一個緊縮週期時，我們的總 DDA 佔核心存款總額的比例下降了 5 個百分點，從 35% 下降到 30%。這個週期，我們從 38% 開始，我們模擬了類似的 5% 的下降，或者我應該說，我們預測下降 5%。

And then we actually model in the rate risk disclosures in the presentation, additional migration even beyond that. So we're assuming a similar mix shift as last tightening cycle. But as Tim mentioned, our product lineup is certainly different and better in the treasury management, market share certainly has improved since the last cycle. But either way, we feel good about how we're forecasting it and think it will be manageable. .

然後我們實際上在演示文稿中對利率風險披露進行建模，甚至超出此範圍的額外遷移。因此，我們假設與上一個緊縮週期類似的混合轉變。但正如蒂姆所提到的，我們的產品陣容在資金管理方面肯定有所不同並且更好，市場份額自上一個週期以來肯定有所提高。但無論哪種方式，我們都對我們的預測方式感到滿意，並認為它是可控的。 .

Okay. And then separately on credit. If you could just give us some color on the drivers of the higher loan delinquencies in the quarter, it looks like both 90 days and 30 to 89 went up. And then separately, maybe just thoughts on the trajectory of the loan loss reserve ratio, excluding what you're doing with Dividend Finance, do you expect additions here on the underlying reserves beyond that portfolio? .

好的。然後分別賒賬。如果你能給我們一些關於本季度貸款拖欠率較高的驅動因素的顏色，看起來 90 天和 30 到 89 天都在增加。然後單獨考慮貸款損失準備金率的軌跡，不包括您在股息融資方面所做的事情，您是否希望在該投資組合之外增加基礎準備金？ .

Yes. It's Richard. I'll start with the delinquency comment, and I'll let Jamie talk about the ACL changes. Look, the starting from a small base, we have a couple of deals roll into delinquency, you have a couple of rollout. There's really no trend. There's no pattern with respect to industry or borrower type. I think it's just a little bit of seasonality in terms of -- or a little bit of -- just a small change in terms of borrower impact as we get through the end of the quarter. .

是的。是理查德。我將從拖欠評論開始，讓 Jamie 談談 ACL 的變化。看，從一個小基地開始，我們有幾筆交易進入拖欠狀態，你有幾筆交易。真的沒有趨勢。沒有關於行業或借款人類型的模式。我認為這只是一點點季節性 - 或者一點點 - 只是我們在本季度末對借款人影響的一個小變化。 .

On the ACL, the driver of the coverage ratio this quarter was certainly Dividend more than anything else, but the other impact being a little bit worsening in the Moody's scenario. So from here, if Dividend loans continue to grow and be an outsized portion of our originations and that coverage ratio just because of that loan mix shift will continue to increase. But otherwise, you wouldn't expect the ACL coverage ratio to go up or down unless the economic scenario changes or the credit profile improves or worsens more than what we currently have modeled. .

在 ACL 方面，本季度覆蓋率的驅動因素當然是股息，但穆迪情景中的其他影響略有惡化。因此，從這裡開始，如果股息貸款繼續增長並成為我們發起的一大部分，那麼僅僅因為貸款組合轉變而導致的覆蓋率將繼續增加。但除此之外，您不會期望 ACL 覆蓋率上升或下降，除非經濟情景發生變化或信用狀況改善或惡化超過我們目前的模型。 .

Your next question is from the line of Michael Mayo with Wells Fargo.

你的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Michael Mayo。

Can we start off the call talking about virtualizing 90% of your workload? Or I missed some of what you had to say. But what does that mean for your efficiency ratio of 53.3%. Where do you think terminal efficiency ratio is? How much do you have in stranded costs? And on the other hand, the inflation rate costs that are your expenses. So I guess I'm looking for longer-term expense and efficiency guidance and the implications of some of these tech moves.

我們可以開始討論虛擬化 90% 的工作負載嗎？或者我錯過了你不得不說的一些內容。但這對您 53.3% 的效率比意味著什麼？你認為終端效率比在哪裡？您有多少擱淺成本？另一方面，通貨膨脹率成本是您的費用。所以我想我正在尋找長期費用和效率指導以及其中一些技術舉措的影響。

Yes. I had you in mind as we were writing that paragraph, Mike, in terms of the data centers and virtualizing applications. I think the way to think about what we are getting to at this point as we have talked for many years now about the opportunities that we have to use the cloud, whether it was private or public, to take some of the load off of legacy mainframe infrastructure and to put it into an environment that allow it to be much more scalable and resilient over time.

是的。邁克，當我們寫那段話時，我就想到了數據中心和虛擬化應用程序。我認為考慮我們在這一點上所取得的成果的方式，因為我們多年來一直在談論我們必須使用雲的機會，無論是私有云還是公共雲，以減輕遺留問題的一些負擔大型機基礎設施，並將其置於一個隨著時間的推移使其更具可擴展性和彈性的環境中。

And we hit a couple of important milestones in the quarter in that regard, hence, the commentary about the data center move and having virtualized now 90%, a little over 90% of the servers inside the company. Look, long term, I think we feel very good about the ability to drive efficiency on the maintenance and network infrastructure side of the IT business.

在這方面，我們在本季度達到了幾個重要的里程碑，因此，關於數據中心遷移的評論現在已經虛擬化了 90%，略高於公司內部 90% 的服務器。從長遠來看，我認為我們對在 IT 業務的維護和網絡基礎設施方面提高效率的能力感到非常滿意。

But we also intend to be able to continue to invest on an ongoing basis, new front-end application development and in building new capabilities into the products and services. So I think what we said in the past is the technology spend has been growing at, call it, 10% on an ongoing basis, but you should expect that sort of growth to continue. But that it would be offset by our ability to eliminate manual processes and drive automation into the company.

但我們也打算能夠持續投資，開發新的前端應用程序，並在產品和服務中構建新功能。所以我認為我們過去所說的是技術支出一直在持續增長，稱之為 10%，但你應該期望這種增長會持續下去。但這將被我們消除手動流程和推動公司自動化的能力所抵消。

And if you look at banks in totality, people expense is about half of our total expense on an annual basis. So there's still a lot of opportunity in front of us in a 3- to 5-year time frame to substitute technology for work that has to be done manually today. That's where I think the efficiency opportunities are. And as it relates to the long term, a 53% efficiency ratio, I believe, is as we were looking at it this morning, the best of any of the commercial banks over $100 billion that are reporting.

如果你從整體上看銀行，每年的人員開支大約占我們總開支的一半。因此，在 3 到 5 年的時間範圍內，我們面前仍有很多機會用技術替代今天必須手動完成的工作。這就是我認為提高效率的機會所在。就長期而言，我相信 53% 的效率比是我們今天早上看到的，是所有報告的超過 1000 億美元的商業銀行中最好的。

So I feel really good about where we're at the moment and the intent is to be able to run the company and that's sort of 53% to 55% range on an ongoing basis.

因此，我對我們目前所處的位置感覺非常好，目的是能夠經營公司，並且持續保持在 53% 到 55% 的範圍內。

Okay. So how many data centers do you have left? And is it your goal to eventually have no data centers as [you have] indicated? .

好的。那麼您還剩下多少個數據中心？您的目標是最終沒有 [you have] 指出的數據中心嗎？ .

We'll have to. We'll always have to. There's a lot of [synergy] to run certain applications and then be able to store data in your own private environment, you need to have redundancy. .

我們必須這樣做。我們總是不得不這樣做。運行某些應用程序有很多[協同作用]，然後能夠將數據存儲在您自己的私有環境中，您需要有冗餘。 .

Okay. And so with the [moves] just happened, can you size those cost savings or those savings are simply going to help fund your new tech investments? .

好的。因此，隨著 [moves] 剛剛發生，您能否確定這些成本節省的規模，或者這些節省將只是幫助為您的新技術投資提供資金？ .

There'll be the mechanism to fund the new tech investments. .

將有為新技術投資提供資金的機制。 .

Your next question is from the line of Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

I just wanted to ask a couple of questions. One, I heard the commentary around deposits earlier and the outlook for deposit growth from effectively benefiting from the new branches, et cetera, that you've been putting in. Could you just give us a sense of that branch trajectory from here and what you're anticipating over the course of the next year or 2? And then also give us a sense as to what your deposit pricing strategies are as well for the next several quarters? .

我只是想問幾個問題。第一，我早些時候聽到了關於存款的評論，以及從有效受益於新分支機構等方面受益的存款增長前景，你一直在投入。你能告訴我們從這裡開始的分支軌跡嗎？正在期待明年或 2 年的課程嗎？然後讓我們了解您在接下來幾個季度的存款定價策略是什麼？ .

Yes, sure. I'll take the branch trajectory, Bryan, you can handle it. I think we have been running on a pace to open, call it, 20 to 30 new branches a year. We'd like to see that be in the more of the 30 to 40 range. So we'll hit mid-20s this year. The expectation is to end up somewhere between 30 and 35 next year and to have the 30 to 40 a year range be what we run in the Southeast markets until we achieve the market position that we want to be able to achieve in each of the MSAs that we are focused on down there.

是的，當然。我會走分支軌跡，布萊恩，你能應付得了。我認為我們一直在按照每年開設 20 到 30 個新分支機構的速度運行。我們希望看到它在 30 到 40 的範圍內。所以我們今年將達到 20 多歲。預計明年最終會在 30 到 35 之間，並且每年 30 到 40 的範圍是我們在東南市場的運行，直到我們達到我們希望能夠在每個 MSA 中實現的市場地位我們專注於那裡。

Now on a net basis, the branch network has not been growing that fast because we have taken advantage of opportunities as customers have done more of the transactional activity online to thin out or relocate branches in the legacy network which has provided a basis for funding several of the investments that we're making down in the Southeast.

現在在淨基礎上，分支網絡並沒有那麼快地增長，因為我們已經利用了機會，因為客戶已經在網上進行了更多的交易活動，以減少或重新安置遺留網絡中的分支機構，這為資助幾個項目提供了基礎我們在東南部進行的投資。

Bryan, do you want to talk about rate?

布萊恩，你想談談利率嗎？

Yes. Yes, absolutely. Thanks, Tim. We continue to feel good about what we've been able to do on the deposit front. The pricing is obviously starting to get more competitive, especially in the commercial portfolios. But we feel good about the 30% cumulative beta that we have talked about for that first 300 basis points in hikes.

是的。是的，一點沒錯。謝謝，蒂姆。我們繼續對我們在存款方面所做的事情感到滿意。定價顯然開始變得更具競爭力，尤其是在商業組合中。但我們對我們談到的前 300 個基點加息的 30% 累積貝塔值感到滿意。

Certainly, as rates move higher from here, we're going to continue to see some increase in betas. And we've previously talked about maybe that next 100, 125 basis points of hikes, those betas will get over 50%. But we think we're going to be able to manage to the below 40% cumulative beta from here, certainly a little bit higher on commercial than on the consumer side. But we recognize as rates move higher, you are going to start to see more consumer beta flow through as well.

當然，隨著利率從這裡走高，我們將繼續看到貝塔值有所增加。我們之前已經討論過接下來可能加息 100、125 個基點，這些貝塔係數將超過 50%。但我們認為我們將能夠從這裡管理到低於 40% 的累積 beta，在商業方面肯定比在消費者方面高一點。但我們認識到，隨著利率走高，您也將開始看到更多的消費者 beta 流量。

Right. I noticed you opt your CD offers and matched JP, which is, I know, a competitive positioning that you've got a lot of your footprint. So that's helpful color on the from here beta that you're looking for. Maybe you could just give us a sense on loan growth trajectory because one of the things, obviously, we're all thinking about is dollars loan growth and dollars deposit growth? And any expectation that you would need to lean on wholesale funding a little bit more.

正確的。我注意到你選擇了你的 CD 報價和匹配的 JP，我知道，這是一個競爭定位，你有很多足跡。因此，這是您正在尋找的 from here beta 上有用的顏色。也許你可以讓我們了解一下貸款增長軌跡，因為很明顯，我們都在考慮的一件事是美元貸款增長和美元存款增長？以及您需要更多地依靠批發資金的任何期望。

I did notice in the quarter, your averages went up in wholesale funding, but that looks like it was action that you took at the end of 2Q. So maybe just give us a sense as to how you see that all trajecting.

我確實在本季度注意到，你們的批發融資平均數有所上升，但這看起來像是你們在第二季度末採取的行動。因此，也許只是讓我們了解您如何看待所有軌跡。

Yes. So Betsy, from my standpoint on loan growth, I think the guide in the fourth quarter is stable to 1% on a quarter-over-quarter basis. That feels like a pretty good benchmark, right? If you were to start on something for where we see loan growth going. We have really strong production coming out of dividends, as we mentioned, and are very pleased with the performance there and also strong production on Provide.

是的。所以 Betsy，從我對貸款增長的角度來看，我認為第四季度的指導環比穩定在 1%。這感覺像是一個很好的基準，對吧？如果你要開始我們看到貸款增長的地方。正如我們所提到的，我們從股息中獲得了非常強勁的產量，並且對那裡的表現以及 Provide 的強勁產量感到非常滿意。

On C&I, more broadly, I think we have been deliberate about moderating production over the course of this past year, you can see that in the numbers. But the production itself is still really good. It's more granular than it had been in the past, which is an important strategic priority for us. What I think I don't see a catalyst for is a material move from here on utilization rates, right?

在 C&I 方面，更廣泛地說，我認為我們在過去一年中一直在考慮緩和生產，你可以在數字中看到這一點。但是製作本身仍然非常好。它比過去更精細，這對我們來說是一個重要的戰略重點。我認為我看不到的催化劑是利用率從這裡開始發生重大變化，對嗎？

And against the strength in the fintech platforms and good core middle market production in C&I, you're going to have the drag from the slowdown in the auto production and mortgages that I think we started on perhaps earlier than others and therefore, will make its way into the numbers faster than you may see it in other places.

相對於金融科技平台的實力和 C&I 良好的核心中間市場生產，你將受到汽車生產和抵押貸款放緩的拖累，我認為我們可能比其他人更早開始，因此，將使其成為進入數字的速度比您在其他地方看到的要快。

Against that, the goal is always to grow deposits. We like to be able to grow deposits faster than loans that we as a (inaudible) of the way that we try to grow the company that doesn't always happen in any 1 quarter. But we do expect fourth quarter, 1% to 2% deposit growth. And while we're still in the early stages of the planning process, we intend to grow deposits next year.

與此相反，目標始終是增加存款。我們希望能夠比貸款更快地增加存款，這是我們嘗試發展公司的方式（聽不清），而這種方式並不總是在任何一個季度發生。但我們確實預計第四季度存款增長 1% 至 2%。雖然我們仍處於規劃過程的早期階段，但我們打算明年增加存款。

Yes. And Betsy, from an overall funding perspective, our wholesale funding portfolio as a percent of our asset base is obviously down a decent amount from where we were pre-COVID. It was kind of closer to 9% of total assets, pre-COVID from a long-term debt perspective, that number is down to more like 6% right now. Our loan-to-deposit ratio, obviously, is still near those historic lows. And so over time, we do expect to have more structure in our liability base as well as a little bit more long-term debt.

是的。 Betsy，從整體融資的角度來看，我們的批發融資組合占我們資產基礎的百分比顯然比我們在 COVID 之前的水平下降了很多。從長期債務的角度來看，它接近總資產的 9%，在 COVID 之前，這個數字現在下降到更接近 6%。顯然，我們的貸存比仍接近那些歷史低點。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們確實希望在我們的負債基礎上有更多的結構以及更多的長期債務。

So even if we were to see some moments of loan growth faster than deposit growth, we have confidence in our ability to fund it and adding some of that structure to our balance sheet is a decent place to be as well.

因此，即使我們看到貸款增長快於存款增長的某些時刻，我們對我們為其提供資金的能力充滿信心，並且在我們的資產負債表中增加一些這種結構也是一個不錯的地方。

Right. No, I noticed your liquidity sources. It's a very fulsome slide, so I really appreciate that. .

正確的。不，我注意到你的流動資金來源。這是一張非常精彩的幻燈片，所以我真的很感激。 .

Your next question is from the line of Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

你的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

Just a couple of questions on the fee side. Understanding your guidance flat to the [727], I just wanted to understand, Tim, in your intro, you mentioned that mortgage servicing will continue to be a benefit. So is the mortgage business hang in from here going forward? And then the second question is just can you flush out a little bit for us just the impact of earnings credit rates on service charges and what type of impact that could have going forward as well? .

關於費用方面的幾個問題。了解您對 [727] 的指導，我只是想了解，蒂姆，在您的介紹中，您提到抵押貸款服務將繼續成為一項福利。那麼抵押貸款業務是否會從這裡繼續前進？然後第二個問題是，你能不能為我們稍微解釋一下收入信貸利率對服務費用的影響，以及這種影響會在未來產生什麼樣的影響？ .

Ken, it's Jamie. I'll take that one. Since we've had long discussions over the years on the strength or lack thereof in our mortgage business and happy to report that the third quarter was a very nice mortgage performance for Fifth Third.

肯，是傑米。我會拿那個。由於多年來我們就抵押貸款業務的實力或缺乏進行了長時間的討論，並且很高興地報告說，第三季度對於 Fifth Third 來說是一個非常好的抵押貸款表現。

I do think from a top line perspective, volumes will be down given the environment into the fourth quarter. But what you're seeing in the strength of the business is really that servicing revenue shine through. And as Tim mentioned in his prepared remarks, we're one of the top servicers rated in the industry, and the improvement in that revenue stream is part of why we beat the outlook for the third quarter and will help support the mortgage fee business going forward.

我確實認為，從頂線的角度來看，鑑於進入第四季度的環境，銷量將會下降。但是，您在業務實力中看到的確實是服務收入閃耀。正如蒂姆在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們是業內評級最高的服務商之一，收入流的改善是我們超越第三季度前景的部分原因，並將有助於支持抵押貸款費用業務的發展向前。

We were running the mortgage banking in the first half of the year, total mortgage banking fees. I think in the first 6 months of the year were $80 million, and we're going to grow that 60% over the back half of the year simply driven by the strength of that mortgage servicing business that we operate.

我們在今年上半年經營抵押銀行業務，總抵押銀行費用。我認為今年前 6 個月是 8000 萬美元，我們將在今年下半年增長 60%，這僅僅是因為我們經營的抵押貸款服務業務的實力。

So we feel good about that. That's a run rate servicing fees, net of MSR decay should be around $40 million to $45 million a quarter going forward, and that's going to be a 10% yielding asset for us. But again, the top line will be a little bit challenge so that net-net, assuming no MSR valuation changes, I would expect the mortgage banking fee line to be in that $60 million to $65 million range in the fourth quarter.

所以我們對此感覺很好。這是運行率服務費，扣除 MSR 衰減後，未來每季度應約為 4000 萬至 4500 萬美元，這對我們來說將是 10% 的收益率資產。但同樣，頂線將有點挑戰，因此假設 MSR 估值沒有變化，我預計第四季度抵押貸款銀行費用線將在 6000 萬至 6500 萬美元的範圍內。

Okay. And sorry, on the service charges with regards to the ECR impact there? And does that continue to -- how does that trend going forward?

好的。抱歉，關於 ECR 影響的服務費？這種情況會繼續嗎——這種趨勢將如何發展？

Yes. When we look just at the fourth quarter, the top line fee equivalent, as Tim mentioned, we have very stronger pipeline and good business. And so top line will be growing 2% or so. But to your point, the earnings credit, just given the rising rate environment, will result in total service charges being down 2% to 3%, and we have earnings credits moving similar to the deposit betas. And so they'll continue to edge higher the Fed keeps moving on rates. .

是的。當我們只看第四季度時，正如蒂姆提到的那樣，頂線費用相當，我們有非常強大的管道和良好的業務。因此，收入將增長 2% 左右。但就你的觀點而言，考慮到利率上升的環境，收益抵免將導致總服務費下降 2% 至 3%，我們的收益抵免與存款貝塔相似。因此，美聯儲將繼續提高利率，它們將繼續走高。 .

Okay. If I could just ask one more, just on your Slide 24, you added [$5 billion] more swaps since the end of the second quarter, and we can see how you've laddered that all out. Can you help us just understand, as you start to look past 4Q in terms of NII, can you continue to show positive NII growth given the positive beta comments you made earlier and just the trajectory of the protection that you've put on to the balance sheet. .

好的。如果我能再問一個問題，就在你的幻燈片 24 上，你自第二季度末以來又增加了 [50 億美元] 掉期，我們可以看到你是如何做到這一點的。你能否幫助我們理解，當你開始回顧第四季度的 NII 時，你能否繼續顯示 NII 的正增長，因為你之前做出了積極的 Beta 評論，以及你對資產負債表。 .

Ken, it's Bryan. Thanks for the question. Based on where we stand today, we feel good about our exit rate NIM in 4Q '22 carrying over into 2023 with some upside as our balance sheet continues to benefit from the '22 hikes. We've previously talked about that 4Q NIM in that kind of 335 to 340 range. Assuming a 450 terminal funds rate, we think our NIM will peak in mid-340s in the first half of 2023. We do expect to give some of that upside back as deposit repricing lags catch up.

肯，是布萊恩。謝謝你的問題。根據我們今天的立場，我們對 22 年第四季度的退出利率 NIM 延續到 2023 年感到滿意，因為我們的資產負債表繼續受益於 22 年的加息。我們之前已經討論過在 335 到 340 範圍內的 4Q NIM。假設終端基金利率為 450，我們認為我們的 NIM 將在 2023 年上半年達到 340 左右的峰值。我們確實希望隨著存款重新定價滯後趕上來回饋部分上行空間。

But given the balance sheet actions we've taken to date to monetize our asset sensitivity, we expect we can maintain a 330 plus NIM over the next couple of years even if rates were to fall 200 basis points. Obviously, 2023 and beyond results are subject to significant uncertainty given the economic outlook, and we'll give you additional color on '23 expectations as part of our fourth quarter earnings in January.

但鑑於我們迄今為止為將資產敏感性貨幣化而採取的資產負債表行動，我們預計即使利率下降 200 個基點，我們也可以在未來幾年內維持 330 以上的 NIM。顯然，考慮到經濟前景，2023 年及以後的業績會受到重大不確定性的影響，作為我們 1 月份第四季度收益的一部分，我們將給你更多關於 23 年預期的顏色。

Yes. If I'm just going to throw one editorial comment in here, Ken, because you hit on 2 of the topics that we're spending a lot of time talking about internally is I think, perhaps, because we operated for 15 years [in a near zero] interest rate environment, people forgot about what long-term drives performance in the banking business. And if there's anything at that current point in the cycle is reminding us is that deposits matter and the diversified fee income business lines matter and an interest rate risk and credit risk management matter.

是的。如果我只是想在這裡發表一篇編輯評論，Ken，因為你談到了我們花了很多時間在內部討論的兩個話題，我想，也許是因為我們運營了 15 年 [in在接近零]的利率環境下，人們忘記了是什麼長期推動了銀行業的業績。如果在周期的當前點有任何事情提醒我們，存款很重要，多元化的費用收入業務線很重要，利率風險和信用風險管理很重要。

And by those measures, if you look at where we are right now. I mean, the company has been around for 164 years. And this is literally going to be its best year ever in terms of profitability and the strength of some of these fee lines like mortgage servicing, right? Like what we have been able to do on top line with treasury management and the quality of the deposit base, coupled with the prudence that I think our treasury, which has done really an outstanding job here and that we have in the credit organization is going to set Fifth Third up to be able to perform very well regardless of what 2023, 2024, 2025 look like.

通過這些措施，如果你看看我們現在所處的位置。我的意思是，這家公司已經存在 164 年了。就盈利能力和其中一些費用線（如抵押貸款服務）的實力而言，這實際上將是有史以來最好的一年，對吧？就像我們在財務管理和存款基礎質量方面所做的那樣，再加上我認為我們的財務部門的審慎態度，它在這裡做得非常出色，我們在信貸組織中的工作正在繼續無論 2023 年、2024 年、2025 年是什麼樣子，將 Fifth Third 設置為能夠很好地執行。

Your next question is from the line of Erika Najarian with UBS. .

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Erika Najarian。 .

Actually, my questions have been asked and answered. .

事實上，我的問題已經被提出並得到了回答。 .

Your next question is from the line of Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank. .

你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor。 .

Any impact to the Dividend Finance business from recent legislation. I guess, it's called the Inflation Reduction Act, but there's a lot of climate initiatives in there that I know help from broader areas, but any impact to that business in terms of volumes and reducing the credit versus what you thought it would have been before? .

近期立法對股息融資業務的任何影響。我想，這就是所謂的《降低通貨膨脹法案》，但我知道其中有很多氣候倡議可以從更廣泛的領域提供幫助，但是在數量和減少信貸方面對該業務的任何影響與您之前認為的相比？ .

Yes. It will be a tailwind for the business. When we underwrote the business and entered into the agreement to buy Dividend, the assumption we were using in our base case was that the federal tax credits would expire and the actions and the Inflation Reduction Act are only going to help support it. .

是的。這將是企業的順風車。當我們承銷業務並簽訂購買股息的協議時，我們在基本案例中使用的假設是聯邦稅收抵免將到期，而這些行動和通貨膨脹減少法案只會幫助支持它。 .

Okay. And then as you think about how big this portfolio can get or you're willing to let it that, obviously, there's a lot of room to run. But if you're originating over $4 billion a year, and it's pretty long duration, the balances could build pretty quickly. Any thoughts on kind of how big? I know I've asked you before, but how big it can get and you're willing to let it at go.

好的。然後當你考慮這個投資組合能有多大，或者你願意讓它有多大時，顯然，有很大的運行空間。但如果你每年發起超過 40 億美元，而且持續時間相當長，那麼餘額可能會很快建立起來。關於有多大的任何想法？我知道我以前問過你，但它能發展到多大，而你願意放棄它。

Yes. I mean, we -- obviously, there's a lot that can change over the next couple of years as outlooks and things adjust and rate expectations change. But as we look at it now and given the capacity that we have on the consumer side because we are going to continue to let our auto portfolio run down getting that portfolio north of $10 billion doesn't cause us any concerns. And we also know that there is a pretty robust market, whether it's securitizations or whole loan markets where we're going to have the ability to manage the portfolio risk associated with these assets, so we feel good about our options associated with it.

是的。我的意思是，我們 - 顯然，隨著前景和事物的調整以及利率預期的變化，未來幾年可能會發生很多變化。但正如我們現在看的那樣，考慮到我們在消費者方面的能力，因為我們將繼續讓我們的汽車投資組合耗盡，使該投資組合超過 100 億美元不會引起我們任何擔憂。我們也知道有一個非常強勁的市場，無論是證券化市場還是整個貸款市場，我們將有能力管理與這些資產相關的投資組合風險，因此我們對與之相關的選擇感到滿意。

Okay. And then actually, just following on my first question, I'm a (inaudible) that was always a long week. But the benefit of this credit, does this increase the volume? Reduce the kind of long-term expected credit cost? Or what's -- or a little bit of both.

好的。然後實際上，就在我的第一個問題之後，我是一個（聽不清）總是漫長的一周。但是這個信用的好處，這是否增加了數量？降低什麼樣的長期預期信貸成本？或者是什麼——或者兩者兼而有之。

It increases the volume. The way to think about it is that from the homeowner's perspective, clearly, there's an incentive to impact your own personal carbon footprint. But these decisions ultimately get made on an economic basis. So the trade-off that the homeowner is making is the cost to install the panels and then to service the debt attached to that relative to the cost to pay an energy bill for energy that you buy from a utility company on a month-to-month basis.

它增加了音量。考慮的方式是，從房主的角度來看，很明顯，存在影響您個人碳足蹟的動機。但這些決定最終是在經濟基礎上做出的。因此，房主所做的權衡是安裝面板的成本，然後償還與該面板相關的債務，相對於每月從公用事業公司購買的能源支付能源賬單的成本 -月為基礎。

So anything that reduces the installation cost on the side of solar or that increases the cost of buying energy off of the grid is beneficial to the size of the overall market is the way to think about it, Matt. And dividend being one of the largest players, anything that positively impacts the TAM for residential solar or positively impacts the outlook from an origination perspective. So that's why I expect the impact benefit primarily to be as it relates to the extension of federal tax credits.

因此，任何降低太陽能方面的安裝成本或增加從電網購買能源的成本的任何事情都有利於整個市場的規模，這是考慮它的方式，馬特。股息是最大的參與者之一，任何對住宅太陽能 TAM 產生積極影響或從起源角度對前景產生積極影響的事物。所以這就是為什麼我預計影響收益主要是因為它與聯邦稅收抵免的延長有關。

That makes sense. And obviously, higher energy prices could also increase demand.

這就說得通了。顯然，更高的能源價格也會增加需求。

Yes.

是的。

Would there be an opportunity to securitize or like figure out a way to increase the ability to originate even more without keeping it on balance sheet over time, maybe it's more 3, 5 years out?

是否有機會進行證券化或想出一種方法來增加更多的原創能力，而不會隨著時間的推移將其保留在資產負債表上，也許還需要 3、5 年的時間？

We -- I think Bryan mentioned that Dividend has been a top 5 originator. Jamie mentioned that we believe it's a top 3 originator today. The other players in the top 5 are all funding through whole loan transfers or securitizations. So there is a very liquid market for the asset. We have the ability to run at an origination level that is above and beyond what we would hold in the portfolio, if we elected to do it. But that, as you said earlier, we have a long way to run between where we're at today and where we would stop and add very attractive yields from the standpoint of NIM enhancement and overall credit performance. .

我們 - 我認為布萊恩提到股息一直是前 5 名發起人。 Jamie 提到我們認為它是當今前 3 名的發起人。前 5 名中的其他參與者都是通過整體貸款轉讓或證券化融資。因此，該資產有一個流動性很強的市場。如果我們選擇這樣做，我們有能力在高於和超出我們在投資組合中持有的初始水平上運行。但是，正如您之前所說，從 NIM 增強和整體信用表現的角度來看，我們在今天和我們將停止並增加非常有吸引力的收益率之間還有很長的路要走。 .

Your next question is from the line of Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

你的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Gerard Cassidy。

Tim, you talked about Fifth Third is one of the most active branched openers in the Southeast, along with JPMorgan Chase. Can you give us some color on the cost of opening, I know each brand is just different, but a typical cost of opening a branch one type of deposit level you need to reach to make it breakeven? And how long does it take you to get to that deposit level, if you use deposits as the measure for breakeven?

蒂姆，你談到 Fifth Third 是東南部最活躍的分支機構之一，還有摩根大通。你能給我們一些關於開設成本的顏色嗎，我知道每個品牌都不同，但是開設分支機構的典型成本是你需要達到一種類型的存款水平才能實現盈虧平衡？如果您使用存款作為盈虧平衡的衡量標準，您需要多長時間才能達到該存款水平？

Yes, Gerard, it's Jamie. Thanks for the question. We've really reduced the square footage in the branches so that the cost between land and construction is much lower than it used to be and it can range from $3 million to $4 million of book value, maybe a few hub branches would go higher than that. But for the most part, that's where the investment cost is.

是的，杰拉德，我是傑米。謝謝你的問題。我們確實減少了分支機構的面積，因此土地和建築之間的成本比以前低得多，賬面價值可以從 300 萬美元到 400 萬美元不等，也許一些樞紐分支機構會比以前高那。但在大多數情況下，這就是投資成本所在。

And as you know, the people side, the staffing is about half of the cost of operating a branch. And so you start to make money when you get into the 25 million-plus deposit range and so that usually takes us 2.5 years or so, sometimes 3, sometimes 2, but our recent de novos are tracking well against the model and actually outperforming on a household growth basis. So that's part of the reason why we're continuing the strategy. And as we look ahead to next year, we did 22 new branches this year in total, and we should do 35 or so next year, primarily in the Southeast.

如您所知，在人員方面，人員配備大約是分支機構運營成本的一半。所以當你進入 2500 萬以上的存款範圍時你就開始賺錢，所以這通常需要我們 2.5 年左右，有時 3 年，有時 2 年，但我們最近的 de novos 很好地跟踪了模型並且實際上表現優於家庭增長的基礎。所以這就是我們繼續該戰略的部分原因。展望明年，我們今年總共開設了 22 個新分支機構，明年我們應該開設 35 個左右，主要是在東南部。

And Jamie, when you get to that breakeven point, how many -- how much longer does it take to get to a return on investment or return on equity, however you measure it to have it at the level that you're very satisfied with? .

傑米，當你達到盈虧平衡點時，需要多長時間才能獲得投資回報或股本回報，無論你如何衡量它，使其達到你非常滿意的水平？ .

Yes, 5 years is really where leading up to the 5-year mark, you then become profitable, flip over probably at that 4.5 on a cumulative basis. And then the earnings power really starts to accumulate beyond that. .

是的，5 年確實是通往 5 年大關的地方，然後你就會盈利，在累積的基礎上可能會翻到 4.5。然後盈利能力真正開始積累。 .

Very good. And then as a follow-up. Yes, go ahead, Tim. .

非常好。然後作為後續行動。是的，繼續吧，蒂姆。 .

I was going to say that these are investments with extremely high terminal values, right? If you look at the branches that we have across the network today, it is especially in the world where I think we have done a very good job of being able to integrate the digital investments that we make and the access to a human being in the local market, right? We've talked a lot about the ways in which we're using analytics and other direct connection points to make sure that that's a seamless experience for customers.

我要說的是，這些都是終端價值極高的投資，對吧？如果你看看我們今天在網絡上擁有的分支機構，尤其是在世界上，我認為我們在能夠整合我們所做的數字投資和對人類的訪問方面做得非常好。當地市場，對吧？我們已經討論了很多關於我們使用分析和其他直接連接點以確保為客戶提供無縫體驗的方式。

It just has proven to be a very strong, long-term recipe to grow the franchise. And the longer the Fed stays up, the faster the breakeven on those branches materializes and they are more attractive that the returns look like, right?

它剛剛被證明是一個非常強大的、長期的增長特許經營權的秘訣。美聯儲維持利率不變的時間越長，這些分支機構實現盈虧平衡的速度就越快，而且它們的回報看起來更具吸引力，對吧？

Yes, very true. As a follow-up on credit, obviously, your credit quality is very strong, similar to your peers. Maybe just remind us why are the customers? I mean you look at all the economic outlook, you mentioned, Jamie, about Moody's. It was a little worse than what you had in the prior quarter in terms of building up the reserves. How is it that credit just remains so strong in view of these crosscurrents, particularly in the housing market starting to weakening.

是的，非常真實。作為信用的後續，顯然，您的信用質量非常好，與同行相似。也許只是提醒我們為什麼是客戶？我的意思是你看看你提到的所有經濟前景，傑米，關於穆迪。就建立儲備而言，這比上一季度的情況要差一些。鑑於這些逆流，信貸為何仍然如此強勁，尤其是在房地產市場開始走弱的情況下。

And then and as part of this, can you just share with us also about the used car prices, obviously, they're finally starting to come down. You guys are in that market? And how does that impact maybe future charge-offs or delinquencies if prices continue to fall down?

然後，作為其中的一部分，您能否也與我們分享一下二手車價格，很明顯，它們終於開始下降了。你們在那個市場？如果價格繼續下跌，這對未來的沖銷或拖欠有何影響？

Yes. I'm going to let Richard provide more specificity. But Gerard, if you just step back and look at it because this is the conundrum that I think we find ourselves in as we look forward and think about how we run the business relative to the signal we've got today. On the consumer side of the equation, if you look at Fifth Third consumer checking deposit balances, they are essentially exactly where they were about between 60% to 80% depending on the cohort you're looking at above where they were at in February of 2020.

是的。我會讓理查德提供更多的具體信息。但是杰拉德，如果你退後一步看看它，因為我認為這是我們在展望未來並思考我們如何根據今天收到的信號經營業務時遇到的難題。在等式的消費者方面，如果你看看 Fifth Third 消費者的支票存款餘額，它們基本上正好在 60% 到 80% 之間，具體取決於你在 2 月份的上方查看的人群2020.

And that ratio has stayed more or less perfectly constant since the third stimulus check pay. So there were temporary spike as tax refunds came in this past year, that money got spent down by and large over the summer, but it restabilized in that sort of 60% to 80% range, it's one, 2, at least in our case, such a significant percentage of our consumer exposure is to homeowners, right? It's 85% of total exposure and 75% of our credit card and auto customers are homeowners that if they had an opportunity to lock in historically low fixed rate mortgages and to manage housing costs in the past couple of years that will allow them as long as they're seeing 4% to 5% wage inflation, which is kind of where we've been running to manage 7%, 8% headline CPI pretty well, right?

自第三次刺激支票支付以來，該比率或多或少一直保持不變。所以在過去的一年裡，隨著退稅的到來，出現了暫時的飆升，這筆錢在夏天基本上花掉了，但它重新穩定在 60% 到 80% 的範圍內，至少在我們的例子中是 1、2 ，我們消費者接觸的很大一部分是房主，對吧？ 85% 的總風險和 75% 的信用卡和汽車客戶是房主，如果他們有機會鎖定歷史低位的固定利率抵押貸款並在過去幾年中管理住房成本，那麼只要他們他們看到 4% 到 5% 的工資通脹，這就是我們一直在努力管理 7%、8% 的總體 CPI，對吧？

And the byproduct that is the liquidity buffer is there and they have leverage over their costs in a way that others didn't. I think equivalently, Richard and I have been out together in several markets, recently talking directly with customers. And what we hear, by and large, is that customers have been able -- demand has stayed very strong and that customers have been able to exercise pricing leverage and to push input costs through to their customers, right?

流動性緩衝的副產品就在那裡，他們以其他人沒有的方式對成本產生影響。我認為同樣地，理查德和我一起去過幾個市場，最近直接與客戶交談。總的來說，我們聽到的是客戶能夠 - 需求一直非常強勁，並且客戶能夠行使定價槓桿並將投入成本推給他們的客戶，對嗎？

I think the dynamic, in fact, with them, and in each case that they all remain more concerned by is, although supply chain pressures have eased a little bit, they're still concerned about the stability of global supply chains and are making investments to support that. And then labor is the other primary constraint right now. And there, again, I think where there is good activity going on, a lot of it is going on to fund CapEx to drive labor productivity so that labor requirements can go down at a given level of demand.

我認為，事實上，他們的動態，在每一種情況下，他們都更關心的是，儘管供應鏈壓力有所緩解，但他們仍然關注全球供應鏈的穩定性，並正在進行投資支持這一點。然後勞動力是目前的另一個主要限制因素。再一次，我認為在有良好活動的地方，很多活動都在為資本支出提供資金，以提高勞動生產率，以便在給定的需求水平上降低勞動力需求。

Now first principles would tell you that with the Fed moving as rapidly as it is and with rates having headed the direction they have that at some point here, the rate cycle has to turn into a credit cycle. And that, I think, is the reason why we've been maybe more cautious in terms of some of our actions, then it feels like we hear other people being because we just think that's prudent at this point in time.

現在第一原則會告訴你，隨著美聯儲像現在這樣迅速行動，並且利率已經朝著他們所擁有的方向發展，在某個時候，利率週期必須轉變為信貸週期。而且，我認為，這就是為什麼我們在某些行動方面可能更加謹慎的原因，然後感覺就像我們聽到其他人一樣，因為我們只是認為此時此刻這是謹慎的。

But I mean, Richard, do you want to talk a little bit about some of the other specifics.

但我的意思是，理查德，你想談談其他一些細節嗎？

Yes. I think the one thing to add on commercial, Gerard, is remember, there's a loss emergence period, so it takes a little while for the stress to ultimately roll through loss. And I think what we see and Tim articulated a lot of it is our customers are adapting, and they've had to adapt, honestly, for about 3 years now.

是的。杰拉德，我認為在商業廣告中要補充的一件事是記住，有一個損失出現期，所以壓力最終會經歷損失需要一點時間。我認為我們所看到的和蒂姆表達的很多是我們的客戶正在適應，老實說，他們已經適應了大約 3 年。

Let's -- if you go back to 2019, the tariffs were a challenge for a lot of supply chains and manufacturing. They had to adapt. They've learned that. In COVID, you've had inflation. And so we see resilient business owners do what they do, and that's adapt to the challenges and run their business as well.

讓我們——如果你回到 2019 年，關稅對很多供應鍊和製造業來說都是一個挑戰。他們必須適應。他們已經學會了。在 COVID 中，你經歷了通貨膨脹。因此，我們看到有彈性的企業主做他們所做的事情，那就是適應挑戰並經營他們的業務。

And I think that's part of the conversation, and that's what we get from our relationship and our relationship managers talking to customers really get good insight to what's happening on the ground. And I think, as Tim said, there's more strength there from a fundamental perspective than perhaps people would otherwise believe.

我認為這是談話的一部分，這就是我們從我們的關係中得到的，我們的關係經理與客戶交談，真正深入了解當地發生的事情。而且我認為，正如蒂姆所說，從基本面來看，那裡的力量可能比人們想像的要大。

Now to your question on auto, I think the answer is auto is going to be a really classic example of a normalization. And again, you've got a shorter -- generally shorter duration in terms of the asset and the loss emergence period, and you have 2 things that are happening at the same time. One, clearly, you can see it with Manheim, used car prices are down 10%, 12% and trending down normalizing. At the same time, we're going to be rolling into originations where we bought it -- where customers bought at higher car prices.

現在回答你關於 auto 的問題，我認為答案是 auto 將成為規範化的一個真正經典的例子。而且，就資產和損失出現期而言，你的持續時間更短——通常更短，而且你有兩件事同時發生。一，很明顯，你可以在 Manheim 看到它，二手車價格下降了 10%、12%，並且呈下降趨勢。與此同時，我們將轉向我們購買它的地方——客戶以更高的汽車價格購買的地方。

So -- we don't really see anything abnormal except for an acceleration of this intersection between car values and the originated loan to value, getting back to something that looks more normal. Again, it's a super prime book for the most part. We're disciplined on the underwriting, the resilience when you look at things like delinquencies continue to be very, very good. In fact, they're- continue to be at seasonal lows. So I think it's just this intersection of prices coming down and origination prices coming up.

所以——我們真的沒有看到任何異常，除了汽車價值和原始貸款價值之間的交集加速，回到看起來更正常的東西。同樣，它在很大程度上是一本超級優質的書。我們在承銷方面受到紀律處分，當你看到拖欠之類的事情時，彈性仍然非常非常好。事實上，它們 - 繼續處於季節性低點。所以我認為這只是價格下降和原產地價格上升的交集。

And then just one quick follow-up on that. During the financial crisis with housing and many times, houses fell below the mortgage value and people. If they were unemployed and couldn't afford it, walked away from the house.

然後只是一個快速跟進。在金融危機期間，房屋和房屋多次跌破抵押貸款價值。如果他們失業並且負擔不起，就會離開這所房子。

If auto loans really go upside down and loan-to-values start to get up to 120%, 130% because of the Manheim number keeps falling, have you guys seen any history of people literally just turning the keys over to the car because the loan is upside down? Or is that really not a factor in the auto market?

如果汽車貸款真的倒掛並且貸款價值開始上升到 120%，130% 因為 Manheim 數字不斷下降，你們有沒有看到任何歷史上人們只是把鑰匙交給汽車，因為貸款倒掛？或者這真的不是汽車市場的一個因素？

It's certainly not a factor today. In fact, Gerard, if anything, think about where auto prices have gone. You're seeing -- we're seeing customers, and we see this across the spectrum that we don't lend into. I don't want to have to go turn the car and buy a new one. It's too expensive. So they're doing a lot of things to keep their car and to stay current or work through with the lenders.

這當然不是今天的一個因素。事實上，杰拉德，如果有的話，想想汽車價格去了哪裡。你看到了——我們看到了客戶，我們在我們不借貸的範圍內看到了這一點。我不想去轉動汽車併購買一輛新車。太貴了。因此，他們正在做很多事情來保住他們的汽車並保持最新狀態或與貸方合作。

We don't see a lot of that because we don't really have that situation given the quality of our consumer. But right now, I think people -- if they have a job, they want to keep their car, they don't want to go buy new.

我們看不到太多這樣的情況，因為考慮到我們消費者的素質，我們並沒有真正遇到這種情況。但現在，我認為人們——如果他們有工作，他們想保留他們的汽車，他們不想去買新的。

Today's final question will come from the line of Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research..

今天的最後一個問題將來自 Wolfe Research 的 Bill Carcache。

Tim and Jamie, I really appreciate hearing your thought process on the earlier question about TCE. Would your response to that question change at all, if we had a credit cycle and the Fed wasn't able to lower rates due to inflation. So the securities portfolio wasn't able to add as much of a shock absorber as you described earlier? And then to bring that back to the broader question, is there a point where decreases in TCE would become a concern for you in that scenario in particular? .

Tim 和 Jamie，我非常感謝聽到你們對之前關於 TCE 的問題的思考過程。如果我們有一個信貸週期並且美聯儲不能因通貨膨脹而降低利率，你對這個問題的回答會完全改變嗎？因此，證券投資組合無法像您之前描述的那樣添加盡可能多的減震器？然後回到更廣泛的問題，在這種情況下，TCE 的減少是否會成為您特別關注的問題？ .

Well, I guess, first off, we've been accreting capital just through the strong earnings power of the company. That's going to continue. As Tim mentioned, CET1 will grow in the fourth quarter. So obviously, that will help the TCE ratio. And then when we pick up the buybacks next year, we'll run the company at that [9.25] CET1 level. That's our expectation. If there's a credit cycle, credit events, I think we will be very happy that we have the portfolio we do given the structure as well as the duration that we have. So I'm not worried about the performance of the investment portfolio. I would say that it's probably the best portfolio in the industry. So we feel good about that. .

好吧，我想，首先，我們一直在通過公司強大的盈利能力來增加資本。這將繼續下去。正如 Tim 提到的，CET1 將在第四季度增長。很明顯，這將有助於 TCE 比率。然後當我們明年進行回購時，我們將以 [9.25] CET1 級別運營公司。這是我們的期望。如果有信貸週期、信貸事件，我認為我們會很高興我們擁有我們所做的投資組合，因為我們擁有的結構和持續時間。所以我不擔心投資組合的表現。我會說這可能是業內最好的投資組合。所以我們對此感覺很好。 .

That's helpful. And then separately, on the funding side, can you speak to your ability to bring off-balance sheet client funds back on balance sheet and the potential amount that is available in theory? .

這很有幫助。然後，在資金方面，您能否談談將表外客戶資金帶回資產負債表的能力以及理論上可用的潛在金額？ .

Yes. Right now, there's about $4 billion in our client liquidity portal. And then there's also opportunity within the Wealth and Asset Management business. But again, that would just come down to the willingness to pay 100% beta type of pricing. And at this point in time, there's no need to do that. But if we wanted to match money market rates, we could certainly bring more deposits back onto the sheet. .

是的。目前，我們的客戶流動性門戶中大約有 40 億美元。然後在財富和資產管理業務中也有機會。但同樣，這只能歸結為願意支付 100% beta 類型的定價。在這個時間點，沒有必要這樣做。但如果我們想匹配貨幣市場利率，我們當然可以將更多存款帶回表中。 .

At this time, I would like to turn the call back over to Chris Doll for any closing remarks. .

此時，我想將電話轉回給 Chris Doll 以聽取任何結束語。 .

Thanks, Dennis, and thanks, everyone, for your interest in Fifth Third. Please feel free to contact the Investor Relations department if you have any follow-up questions. Dennis, you can now disconnect the call. .

謝謝丹尼斯，也謝謝大家對 Fifth Third 的關注。如果您有任何後續問題，請隨時聯繫投資者關係部門。丹尼斯，你現在可以掛斷電話了。 .

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude the Fifth Third Bancorp Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你。女士們，先生們，這確實結束了 Fifth Third Bancorp 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。