(FITBO) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Rob, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Fifth Third Bancorp Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

早安.我叫羅布，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時此刻，我謹歡迎大家參加 Third Bancorp 2023 年第三季第五次財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

Chris Doll, Head of Investor Relations. You may begin your conference.

克里斯‧多爾 (Chris Doll)，投資人關係主管。您可以開始您的會議了。

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Fifth Third's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. This morning, our President and CEO, Tim Spence; and CFO, Jamie Leonard, will provide an overview of our third quarter results and outlook. Our Treasurer, Bryan Preston and Chief Credit Officer, Greg Schroeck, also joined us for the Q&A portion of the call. Please review the cautionary statements on our materials, which can be found in our earnings release and presentation. These materials contain information regarding the use of non-GAAP measures and reconciliations to the GAAP results as well as forward-looking statements about Fifth Third's performance. These statements speak only as of October 19, 2023 and Fifth Third undertakes no obligation to update them. Following the prepared remarks by Tim and Jamie, we will open the call up for questions. With that, let me turn it over to Tim.

大家，早安。歡迎參加 Fifth Third 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天早上，我們的總裁兼執行長 Tim Spence；財務長 Jamie Leonard 將概述我們第三季的業績和前景。我們的財務主管 Bryan Preston 和首席信貸官 Greg Schroeck 也參加了電話會議的問答部分。請查看我們資料中的警示聲明，這些聲明可以在我們的收益發布和演示中找到。這些資料包含有關非公認會計準則衡量標準的使用和公認會計準則結果的調節的信息，以及有關 Fifth Third 業績的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明僅截至 2023 年 10 月 19 日，Fifth Third 不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。在提姆和傑米準備好的發言之後，我們將開始提問。接下來，讓我把它交給提姆。

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. We believe that great banks distinguish themselves, not by how they perform in benign environments or rather by how they navigate challenging ones. That is why we focus on stability, profitability and growth in that order. It's also why I am so pleased that our key return and profitability metrics remain resilient despite the market-related headwinds that all banks are facing.

謝謝克里斯，大家早安。我們相信，偉大的銀行之所以能夠脫穎而出，不是因為它們在良性環境中的表現，而是因為它們如何應對充滿挑戰的環境。這就是為什麼我們依次關注穩定性、獲利能力和成長。這也是為什麼我如此高興的是，儘管所有銀行都面臨著與市場相關的阻力，但我們的關鍵回報和獲利指標仍然保持彈性。

Earlier today, we reported earnings per share of $0.91 or $0.92 excluding a $0.01 impact from our Visa swap, reflecting strong PPNR results and favorable credit outcomes. We generated an adjusted return on tangible common equity ex AOCI of nearly 16%, which increased 50 basis points sequentially and a return on assets of 1.26%. We generated strong fee growth compared to the year ago quarter, supported by a more diverse range of fee income streams than peers and our investments in treasury management, capital markets and wealth management.

今天早些時候，我們報告每股收益為 0.91 美元或 0.92 美元，不包括 Visa 互換帶來的 0.01 美元影響，反映出強勁的 PPNR 結果和良好的信用結果。我們的調整後有形普通股（不包括 AOCI）回報率接近 16%，比上一季增長 50 個基點，資產回報率為 1.26%。與去年同期相比，我們的費用成長強勁，這得益於比同業更多樣化的費用收入來源以及我們在資金管理、資本市場和財富管理方面的投資。

Our third quarter total noninterest expense increased less than 2% compared to the year ago quarter, and we generated an adjusted efficiency ratio below 55%. In the last 4 years, we have managed expenses to the lowest growth rate among peers despite also investing in growth by building more new branches, raising our minimum wage, modernizing our technology platforms and acquiring 4 fintech companies. Expense management at Fifth Third is a continuous process and not a program. Since March of this year, full-time equivalent employee head count is down 3.5%.

與去年同期相比，我們第三季的非利息支出總額成長了不到 2%，調整後的效率比率低於 55%。在過去4 年裡，儘管我們也透過建立更多新分公司、提高最低工資、實現技術平台現代化以及收購4 家金融科技公司等方式投資於成長，但我們的開支成長率仍是同業中最低的。 Fifth Third 的費用管理是一個持續的過程，而不是一個計劃。自今年 3 月以來，全職員工人數減少了 3.5%。

Turning to the balance sheet. We generated 4% average deposit growth compared to the year ago quarter versus a 5% decline for the industry. New relationship growth remains strong. Consumer households grew more than 2%, led by 6% growth in the Southeast, a continuation of our multiyear growth base. New middle market relationships added year-to-date remain 25% ahead of last year's record base. Thanks to the release of the annual FDIC summary of deposits, the third quarter provides a unique opportunity to understand market share gains and losses on a metro area by metro area basis. This year, Fifth Third maintained or improved our market rank in every single one of our 40 largest MSAs.

轉向資產負債表。與去年同期相比，我們的平均存款成長了 4%，而產業下降了 5%。新關係的成長依然強勁。消費者家庭成長超過 2%，其中東南部地區成長 6%，這是我們多年成長基礎的延續。今年迄今新增的中間市場關係仍比去年的紀錄高出 25%。由於 FDIC 年度存款摘要的發布，第三季提供了一個獨特的機會來了解每個都會區的市場份額收益和損失。今年，Fifth Third 維持或提高了我們在 40 個最大的 MSA 中每一個的市場排名。

In the Midwest, we maintained our #2 overall position behind JPMorgan Chase. In the Southeast, where we are just 4 years removed for opening our first next-gen branch, we have reached or are approaching target locational share in 8 of our original 11 focused markets. We intend to continue to open approximately 35 branches per year through 2028, at which time nearly 50% of our branches will be in Southeast markets. These market share gains are the byproduct of multiyear strategies that are not easily replicable by competitors. They include innovative operational deposit-oriented products like Momentum Banking, AI-driven customer acquisition strategies and the top quartile customer service model in addition to our investments in new branches.

在中西部，我們保持了第二名的整體位置，落後於摩根大通。在東南部，我們距離開設第一家下一代分公司僅 4 年時間，在我們最初 11 個重點市場中的 8 個市場中，我們已經達到或正在接近目標位置份額。我們計劃在 2028 年繼續每年開設約 35 家分支機構，屆時我們將有近 50% 的分行位於東南市場。這些市場佔有率的成長是多年策略的副產品，競爭對手不易複製。除了我們對新分行的投資之外，它們還包括創新的營運存款導向產品（如 Momentum Banking）、人工智慧驅動的客戶獲取策略和頂級客戶服務模式。

Our key credit metrics remained strong during the quarter. Charge-offs were in line with our July expectations in both early-stage delinquencies and nonperforming assets improved sequentially. The ACL increased 3 basis points given slight changes to Moody's macroeconomic forecast.

本季我們的主要信貸指標仍然強勁。早期拖欠率和不良資產連續改善的沖銷符合我們 7 月的預期。鑑於穆迪宏觀經濟預測略有變化，ACL 上調了 3 個基點。

Turning to liquidity and capital. We made significant progress against our goal to adapt early to expected changes in the regulatory framework. Our focused efforts throughout the bank enabled us to end the quarter with $103 billion in total liquidity sources and to achieve full Category 1 LCR compliance at the end of both August and September. During the quarter, we also made significant progress on our RWA optimization initiative. Total RWA declined 1% compared to the prior quarter. Our exercise should be complete by the end of the fourth quarter, so we can return to growing loans next year.

轉向流動性和資本。我們在儘早適應監管框架預期變化的目標方面取得了重大進展。我們整個銀行的集中努力使我們在本季結束時擁有 1,030 億美元的總流動性來源，並在 8 月底和 9 月底完全實現 1 類 LCR 合規。本季度，我們的 RWA 優化計畫也取得了重大進展。總 RWA 較上一季下降 1%。我們的工作應在第四季末完成，以便明年我們可以恢復增加貸款。

We created over 30 basis points of CET1 capital during the quarter, reflecting our strong earnings power while we also raised our quarterly dividend by 6%. With respect to the economy, while aggregate figures on spending and employment remains strong and market sentiment has shifted more in favor of a soft landing. We continue to be more cautious given concerning signals disguised beneath the aggregates. For example, while the most recent headline payroll numbers were strong, most, if not all, the job growth is a byproduct of more people working part-time jobs. Real average weekly earnings slipped every month during the quarter and the lower end of the consumer spectrum now maintains deposit balances below pre-COVID levels. Anecdotally, the last time Google searches for soft landing was this high was in May of 2008.

我們在本季度創造了超過 30 個基點的 CET1 資本，反映了我們強大的獲利能力，同時我們也將季度股息提高了 6%。就經濟而言，儘管支出和就業的整體數據仍然強勁，但市場情緒已轉向更傾向於軟著陸。鑑於隱藏在總量之下的訊號，我們繼續更加謹慎。例如，雖然最近的整體薪資數據強勁，但大多數（如果不是全部）就業成長是更多人從事兼職工作的副產品。本季實際平均週收入每個月都在下滑，低端消費者的存款餘額目前維持在新冠疫情爆發前的水平以下。有趣的是，上一次谷歌軟著陸搜尋量達到如此高的水平是在 2008 年 5 月。

Before I turn it over, I want to say thank you to our employees for everything you do to take care of our customers, strengthen our communities and support one another. Your efforts are why Time Magazine recently recognized Fifth Third as one of the world's best companies, and why I am as confident as ever in Fifth Third's ability to outperform through the cycle and to deliver innovations that improve lives for all our stakeholders.

在我轉交之前，我想對我們的員工表示感謝，感謝你們為照顧我們的客戶、加強我們的社區和相互支持所做的一切。你們的努力是《時代》雜誌最近將Fifth Third 評為全球最佳公司之一的原因，也是我一如既往地相信Fifth Third 有能力在整個週期中表現出色並提供創新以改善所有利益相關者生活的原因。

With that, Jamie will provide more details on our third quarter financial results and outlook.

隨後，傑米將提供有關我們第三季財務業績和前景的更多詳細資訊。

Thank you, Tim, and thanks all of you for joining us today. Our third quarter results were once again strong despite the market headwinds. We continue to strengthen our capital and liquidity levels ahead of pending regulations while also managing our business very efficiently. We achieved an adjusted efficiency ratio below 55%, reflecting ongoing expense discipline throughout the bank and the continued diversification and resilience of our fee revenue streams.

謝謝提姆，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。儘管市場逆風，我們第三季的業績再次強勁。我們繼續在即將出台的法規出台之前加強我們的資本和流動性水平，同時非常有效地管理我們的業務。我們的調整後效率低於 55%，反映出整個銀行持續的費用紀律以及我們的費用收入流的持續多元化和彈性。

Net interest income of approximately $1.45 billion decreased 1% sequentially. Our NII and NIM results reflect our proactive and continued defensive positioning given the uncertain economic and regulatory environments. Our short-term investments, which primarily represent our cash held at the Fed increased $5 billion on an average basis and increased $8 billion on an end-of-period basis to $19 billion. This increased level of cash was the primary driver of our 12 basis point NIM decline.

淨利息收入約 14.5 億美元，季減 1%。我們的 NII 和 NIM 結果反映了我們在不確定的經濟和監管環境下積極和持續的防禦性定位。我們的短期投資（主要是我們在聯準會持有的現金）平均增加 50 億美元，期末增加 80 億美元，達到 190 億美元。現金水準的增加是淨利差下降 12 個基點的主要驅動力。

Adjusted noninterest income increased 1% compared to the year ago quarter, driven by growth in capital markets and deposit service charge revenue, partially offset by a decrease in mortgage revenue driven primarily by lower origination volumes. Our ability to produce strong capital markets revenue in a volatile market has become a key distinction for Fifth Third compared to many peers.

受資本市場和存款服務費收入增長的推動，調整後的非利息收入與去年同期相比增長了 1%，但部分被主要由發放量下降導致的抵押貸款收入下降所抵消。與許多同業相比，我們在動盪的市場中產生強勁資本市場收入的能力已成為 Fifth Third 的關鍵區別。

Adjusted noninterest expense increased just 2% compared to the year ago quarter, reflecting growth in compensation and benefits, occupancy and technology expenses partially offset by continued expense discipline across the company.

與去年同期相比，調整後的非利息支出僅成長 2%，反映出薪資和福利、佔用率和技術支出的成長，部分被整個公司持續的支出紀律所抵銷。

Moving to the balance sheet. Total average portfolio loans and leases decreased 1% sequentially due to softening customer demand and our RWA optimization efforts. Average C&I balances decreased 2% sequentially. As Tim mentioned, clients remain cautious with respect to their growth plans. Consequently, production was muted in corporate banking. Also, average CRE balances decreased 1% compared to the prior quarter. The period-end commercial revolver utilization rate of 36% increased 1% compared to last quarter, partially due to our exit of certain lower returning unused commercial commitments.

轉向資產負債表。由於客戶需求疲軟以及我們的 RWA 優化工作，平均投資組合貸款和租賃總額環比下降 1%。平均 C&I 餘額環比下降 2%。正如蒂姆所提到的，客戶對其增長計劃保持謹慎。因此，企業銀行業務的生產低迷。此外，平均商業房地產餘額較上一季下降 1%。期末商業左輪手槍利用率為 36%，較上季度增長 1%，部分原因是我們退出了某些較低迴報的未使用商業承諾。

On a sequential basis, total corporate banking commitments and unused commitments decreased 3% and 4%, respectively, while total middle market commitments and unused commitments increased 5% and 7%, respectively. This trend highlights our capital optimization efforts while we continue to grow share in the middle market. Average total consumer portfolio loan and lease balances decreased 1% sequentially due to our intentional decline in indirect auto and the overall slowdown in residential mortgage originations, given the rate environment, partially offset by growth from dividend finance.

與上一季相比，公司銀行業務承諾總額和未使用承諾額分別下降 3% 和 4%，而中間市場承諾總額和未使用承諾額分別增加 5% 和 7%。這一趨勢凸顯了我們在繼續擴大中間市場份額的同時，在資本優化方面所做的努力。鑑於利率環境，我們有意減少間接汽車業務以及住宅抵押貸款發放總體放緩，平均總消費者投資組合貸款和租賃餘額環比下降 1%，但部分被股息融資的成長所抵消。

Our card balances increased just 1% this quarter, reflecting our conservative risk culture and focus on transactors. Balances have increased 3% relative to the year ago quarter compared to 11% for the industry. Average total deposits increased 3% sequentially as increases in CDs and interest checking balances were partially offset by a decline in demand deposits given the mix shift we have seen for several quarters. DDAs as a percent of core deposits were 28% for the quarter compared to 30% in the prior quarter. The 2-point decline was primarily due to the strong deposit growth in the denominator that Tim highlighted from our net new relationship growth in both Consumer and Commercial, which are obviously skewed to interest-bearing products in this environment.

本季我們的卡片餘額僅成長 1%，反映了我們保守的風險文化和對交易者的關注。與去年同期相比，餘額增加了 3%，而該行業的餘額增加了 11%。平均總存款環比增加 3%，因為定期存款和利息支票餘額的增加被活期存款的下降部分抵消，因為我們已經看到了幾個季度的結構變化。本季 DDA 佔核心存款的百分比為 28%，而上一季為 30%。下降 2 個百分點主要是由於分母的強勁存款成長，提姆強調了我們在消費者和商業領域的新關係淨成長，在這種環境下，這些關係明顯偏向於生息產品。

As a result, we added more than $4 billion in core deposits during the quarter, the most since the fourth quarter of 2021. Additionally, the DDA migration continued to show signs of deceleration this quarter and marked the smallest dollar decline in DDA balances since the onset of the rate hiking cycle. By segment, average consumer deposits increased 2% sequentially, and commercial deposits increased 4%, while wealth and asset management deposits declined 2% reflecting clients' alternative investment options.

因此，我們在本季增加了超過40 億美元的核心存款，這是自2021 年第四季以來的最高水準。此外，本季DDA 遷移繼續顯示出減速跡象，並標誌著自2021 年第四季度以來DDA 餘額的美元跌幅最小。升息週期開始。按細分市場劃分，平均消費者存款較上季成長 2%，商業存款成長 4%，財富和資產管理存款下降 2%，反映出客戶的另類投資選擇。

As a result of our balance sheet positioning and success adding new deposits, we achieved a loan to core deposit ratio of 74% at quarter end, which should be one of the best, if not the best, compared to our regional peers. We also achieved full Category 1 LCR compliance at 118% at quarter end.

由於我們的資產負債表定位和成功增加新存款，我們在季度末實現了74% 的貸款與核心存款比率，與我們的區域同行相比，即使不是最好的，也應該是最好的之一。截至季末，我們也實現了 118% 的完全 1 類 LCR 合規性。

Moving to credit. As Tim mentioned, credit has remained resilient. The net charge-off ratio of 41 basis points increased 12 basis points compared to the prior quarter as we expected, reflecting 2 credits, which had been fully reserved. Early stage delinquencies decreased 7% compared to the prior quarter, while loans 90 days past due, of just 2 basis points or a record low for Fifth Third.

轉向信貸。正如蒂姆所提到的，信貸仍然保持彈性。正如我們預期的那樣，淨核銷率為 41 個基點，較上一季度增加 12 個基點，反映了 2 個已全額預留的信用額度。與上一季相比，早期拖欠率下降了 7%，而逾期 90 天的貸款僅下降了 2 個基點，創下 Fifth Third 的歷史新低。

Nonperforming loans decreased 9%. This quarter marked the lowest inflows of commercial NPLs since the second quarter of 2022. From an overall credit management perspective, we have continually improved the granularity and diversification of our loan portfolios through a focus on generating and maintaining high-quality relationships. As many of you know, we tightened underwriting standards during COVID, which limited our growth but improved the stability of our balance sheet.

不良貸款下降 9%。本季商業不良貸款流入量為2022年第二季以來的最低水準。從整體信貸管理的角度來看，我們透過專注於建立和維護高品質的關係，不斷提高貸款組合的粒度和多元化。眾所周知，我們在新冠疫情期間收緊了承保標準，這限制了我們的成長，但提高了我們資產負債表的穩定性。

In Consumer, we have focused on lending to homeowners, which is a segment less impacted by inflationary pressures and have maintained conservative underwriting policies. In Commercial, we have maintained the lowest overall CRE concentration as a percent of total loans relative to peers for many years. Our criticized nonperforming and delinquent CRE loans have all improved sequentially and remain very well behaved.

在消費者方面，我們專注於向房主提供貸款，該領域受通膨壓力影響較小，並維持保守的承保政策。在商業領域，多年來，我們的商業房地產整體集中度佔貸款總額的百分比相對於同業一直保持在最低水平。我們受到批評的不良貸款和拖欠商業房地產貸款均已連續改善，且表現仍然良好。

And within that, the same is true for our office exposures. For instance, criticized office loans represented just 5.4% of total office CRE, which improved 180 basis points sequentially. Additionally, we have 0 delinquencies and 0 charge-offs. We also decreased loan balances by 8% in the office book without any loan sales. These credit quality metrics are significantly better than peers who have reported their office exposure so far this quarter. While credit quality in the office portfolio has remained very strong, and we continue to believe the overall impact on Fifth Third will be limited. We nevertheless continue to watch it closely given the environment.

其中，我們的辦公室風險也是如此。例如，受到批評的辦公室貸款僅佔辦公室 CRE 總額的 5.4%，比上一季提高了 180 個基點。此外，我們還實現了 0 次拖欠和 0 次沖銷。我們也將辦公簿中的貸款餘額減少了 8%，但沒有任何貸款銷售。這些信用品質指標明顯優於本季迄今報告辦公室風險的同業。儘管辦公室投資組合的信貸品質仍然非常強勁，但我們仍然認為對 Fifth Third 的整體影響將有限。儘管如此，鑑於環境，我們仍將繼續密切關注。

Our shared national credit portfolio also remains very strong from a credit quality perspective, with criticized assets, nonperforming loans and net charge-offs consistently lower than the overall commercial portfolio across a multiyear period. Our credit resilience highlights our proactive risk culture. We continue to closely monitor all exposures where inflation and higher rates may cause stress throughout the entire portfolio as well as the fallout from the ongoing labor strike in the auto manufacturing sector, where we think our exposures are very manageable.

從信貸品質的角度來看，我們共同的國家信貸投資組合也仍然非常強勁，多年來，受批評的資產、不良貸款和淨沖銷一直低於整體商業投資組合。我們的信用韌性凸顯了我們積極主動的風險文化。我們繼續密切關注通貨膨脹和利率上升可能給整個投資組合帶來壓力的所有風險敞口，以及汽車製造業持續罷工的影響，我們認為我們的風險敞口是非常可控的。

Moving to the ACL. Our reserves decreased $5 million, but the coverage ratio increased 3 basis points sequentially to 2.11% as the impact of lower period end loans was offset by a slightly worse overall base case economic outlook. As you know, we incorporate Moody's macroeconomic scenarios when evaluating our allowance. Both the Moody's base scenario and the downside scenario used for the third quarter ACL assume a slightly worse average unemployment rate compared to the prior quarter. We maintained our scenario weightings of 80% to the base and 10% to each the upside and downside scenarios.

轉向 ACL。我們的準備金減少了 500 萬美元，但覆蓋率環比增加了 3 個基點，達到 2.11%，因為期末貸款減少的影響被總體基本情況經濟前景稍差的影響所抵消。如您所知，我們在評估我們的津貼時考慮了穆迪的宏觀經濟情景。穆迪的基本情境和第三季 ACL 所使用的下行情境均假設平均失業率較上一季略有下降。我們維持基本情境權重為 80%，上行和下行情境各佔 10%。

Moving to capital. Our CET1 ratio increased 31 basis points sequentially ending the quarter at 9.8%. Our capital position reflects our ability to build capital quickly through our strong earnings generation, combined with the impact of our RWA diet. Our tangible book value per share, excluding AOCI, increased 10% compared to the year ago quarter. We continue to expect improvement in our unrealized securities losses resulting in approximately 35% of our current loss position accreting back into equity by the end of 2025 and approximately 2/3 by 2028, assuming the forward curve plays out.

遷往首都。本季結束時，我們的 CET1 比率較上季成長了 31 個基點，達到 9.8%。我們的資本狀況反映了我們透過強勁的獲利能力以及 RWA 飲食的影響來快速累積資本的能力。我們的每股有形帳面價值（不包括 AOCI）與去年同期相比成長了 10%。我們繼續預期未實現證券損失將有所改善，假設遠期曲線發揮作用，到2025 年底，我們目前損失頭寸的約35% 會重新計入股本，到2028 年，約2/3 會重新計入股本。

Looking forward, we expect to build capital at an accelerated pace given our RWA optimization initiative and our continued deferment of share buybacks. We anticipate accreting capital such that our CET1 ratio ends this year above 10%.

展望未來，鑑於我們的 RWA 優化計劃和我們繼續推遲股票回購，我們預計將加快資本建設速度。我們預計將增加資本，使我們的 CET1 比率在今年結束時達到 10% 以上。

Moving to our current outlook. We expect fourth quarter average total loan balances to decline 2% to 3% sequentially with consumer loans down 2% and commercial loans down 3%. The reflects our overall cautious economic outlook combined with one more quarter of our RWA diet as we are responding quickly to higher risk-adjusted return thresholds throughout the bank considering the economic and regulatory environments. We expect average deposits to be up slightly on a sequential basis. Within that, we expect core deposits to increase 1% due to our multiyear investments in the franchise to add households and primary commercial relationships, along with the benefit from seasonality. While we continue to expect modest migration from DDA into interest-bearing products in a higher for longer interest rate environment, specifically for the fourth quarter, we expect the mix of DDA to core deposits to remain relatively stable given those seasonal benefits.

轉向我們目前的展望。我們預計第四季平均總貸款餘額將較上季下降 2% 至 3%，其中消費貸款下降 2%，商業貸款下降 3%。這反映了我們總體上謹慎的經濟前景，加上考慮到經濟和監管環境，我們正在對整個銀行更高的風險調整回報閾值做出快速反應，因此我們的 RWA 飲食又增加了四分之一。我們預計平均存款將環比小幅上升。其中，由於我們對特許經營權的多年投資以增加家庭和主要商業關係，以及季節性的好處，我們預計核心存款將增加 1%。雖然我們繼續預計，在長期利率較高的環境下，特別是第四季度，DDA 會適度轉向有息產品，但考慮到這些季節性效益，我們預計 DDA 與核心存款的組合將保持相對穩定。

Shifting to the income statement. We expect fourth quarter NII to be down approximately 1% to 2% sequentially due to the continued impacts of the balance sheet dynamics I mentioned. Our NII guidance assumes no additional rate hikes and a cumulative beta, which includes CDs and excludes DDAs of 55% by the fourth quarter. Excluding brokered deposits that we have been using as a replacement for other wholesale funding, given the pricing considerations, our cumulative beta expectation continues to be 53%. This outlook translates to total interest-bearing deposit costs increasing 15 to 20 basis points in the fourth quarter.

轉向損益表。由於我提到的資產負債表動態的持續影響，我們預計第四季度 NII 將環比下降約 1% 至 2%。我們的 NII 指引假設到第四季不會進一步升息，並且累積貝塔值（包括 CD 且不包括 DDA）為 55%。考慮到定價因素，不包括我們一直用來取代其他批發資金的經紀存款，我們的累積貝塔預期仍為 53%。這一前景意味著第四季度的計息存款總成本將增加 15 至 20 個基點。

Our guidance assumes that our securities portfolio balances remain relatively stable through year-end. As a byproduct of our strong deposit growth, combined with our loan outlook and stable securities balances, we expect to hold closer to $20 billion in cash and cash equivalents by year-end. Given these balance trends, we expect our loan to core deposit ratio to continue to move lower through the end of the year, which will keep Fifth Third in a strong liquidity position in anticipation of more stringent regulatory requirements, including remaining compliant with the full Category 1 LCR.

我們的指引假設我們的證券投資組合餘額到年底保持相對穩定。作為存款強勁成長的副產品，加上我們的貸款前景和穩定的證券餘額，我們預計到年底將持有接近 200 億美元的現金和現金等價物。鑑於這些餘額趨勢，我們預計到今年年底，我們的貸款與核心存款比率將繼續下降，這將使 Fifth Third 保持強勁的流動性狀況，以應對更嚴格的監管要求，包括保持遵守完整類別的要求1個LCR。

We expect fourth quarter adjusted noninterest income to increase 1% to 2% compared to the third quarter. We expect revenues to remain resilient across most captions driven by our multiyear focus on growing a diverse portfolio of fee businesses that should perform well in different economic environments. We expect fourth quarter TRA revenue of $22 million compared to $46 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. We expect fourth quarter adjusted noninterest expenses to be stable to up 1% compared to the third quarter. Our guidance excludes the pending FDIC special assessment, which we currently estimate at $208 million for Fifth Third.

我們預計第四季調整後非利息收入將較第三季成長 1% 至 2%。我們預計，由於我們多年來致力於發展多樣化的收費業務組合，這些業務在不同的經濟環境下都應表現良好，因此我們預計大多數字幕業務的收入將保持彈性。我們預計第四季 TRA 營收為 2,200 萬美元，而 2022 年第四季為 4,600 萬美元。我們預計第四季調整後的非利息支出將穩定成長，與第三季相比成長 1%。我們的指導不包括懸而未決的 FDIC 特別評估，我們目前估計 Fifth Third 的評估金額為 2.08 億美元。

With respect to credit quality, we expect fourth quarter net charge-offs to be 30 to 35 basis points. We do expect to gradually normalize from here. We continue to believe that our through the cycle annual charge-offs will be in the 35 to 45 basis point range given the credit risk profile of the bank. Given our reduced loan outlook, we expect the change in the ACL for the fourth quarter to be stable to up $25 million, assuming no significant changes in the underlying Moody's economic scenarios. This considers production from dividend finance of around $700 million in the fourth quarter, which as you know, carries a higher reserve level of around 9%.

就信貸品質而言，我們預計第四季淨沖銷額將為 30 至 35 個基點。我們確實期望從這裡開始逐漸正常化。考慮到銀行的信用風險狀況，我們仍然認為，整個週期的年度沖銷將在 35 至 45 個基點範圍內。鑑於我們下調了貸款前景，假設穆迪的基本經濟情景沒有重大變化，我們預計第四季度 ACL 的變化將穩定在 2500 萬美元左右。這考慮到第四季度股息融資的產出約為 7 億美元，如您所知，其準備金水平較高，約為 9%。

In summary, with our proactive balance sheet management, disciplined credit risk management and commitment to delivering strong performance through the cycle, we believe we are well positioned to meet the proposed regulatory requirements while continuing to generate long-term value for our shareholders.

總而言之，憑藉我們積極主動的資產負債表管理、嚴格的信用風險管理以及在整個週期內提供強勁業績的承諾，我們相信我們有能力滿足擬議的監管要求，同時繼續為股東創造長期價值。

With that, let me turn it over to Chris to open the call up for Q&A.

接下來，讓我把它交給克里斯來開始問答環節。

Thanks, Jamie. Before we start Q&A, given the time we have this morning, we ask that you limit yourself to one question and a follow-up and then return to the queue if you have additional questions. Operator, please open the call up for Q&A.

謝謝，傑米。在我們開始問答之前，考慮到今天早上的時間，我們要求您將自己限制在一個問題和後續問題上，如果您還有其他問題，請返回隊列。接線員，請打開電話問答。

(Operator Instructions) And your first question comes from the line of Scott Siefers from Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Scott Siefers。

Jamie, I was hoping maybe you could expand even a little more on your thoughts on bringing in so many deposits in the third quarter. I know you're trying to get your liquidity to a certain very high level and you achieved it. But it was just a kind of astonishing number. So just curious as to what the thinking throughout the quarter was. I guess additional forward look though you provided some of the deposit commentary or expectations in there. But just any additional thoughts would be helpful, please.

傑米，我希望你能進一步闡述你對第三季引入如此多存款的想法。我知道您正在努力將流動性提高到某個非常高的水平，並且您已經實現了。但這只是一個令人震驚的數字。只是好奇整個季度的想法是什麼。儘管您在其中提供了一些存款評論或期望，但我想還是有更多的前瞻性。但任何額外的想法都會有幫助，拜託。

Thanks, Scott, for the question. We were certainly bringing the Victory bell on deposits this quarter. Really, when you take a look back, coming out of March, [man], that's one of the biggest drivers of our deposit success in the second quarter and the third quarter was really transitioning our customer recommendation engine from household growth to deposit growth. And while that sacrificed a little bit on the household growth numbers instead of our typical up 3% or up 4%, we were 2% on households, but that translated to very strong consumer deposit growth. And so within the deposit growth we did have during the quarter of almost $4.8 billion, about 60% was Commercial, 40% was Consumer. And within Consumer, 70% of that growth was in the Southeast markets, while 30% of that growth was in the Midwest. So again, the retail franchise at Fifth Third is just performing at an extremely high level.

謝謝斯科特提出這個問題。本季我們確實敲響了存款勝利的鐘聲。真的，當你回顧三月的情況時，[夥計]，這是我們第二季度存款成功的最大推動力之一，而第三季度確實將我們的客戶推薦引擎從家庭增長轉變為存款增長。雖然這犧牲了一些家庭成長數據，而不是我們通常的成長 3% 或 4%，但我們的家庭成長為 2%，但這轉化為非常強勁的消費者存款成長。因此，在本季我們確實實現了近 48 億美元的存款成長，其中約 60% 是商業性的，40% 是消費者性的。在消費者領域，70% 的成長來自東南市場，30% 的成長來自中西部市場。再說一遍，Fifth Third 的零售特許經營權正處於極高的水平。

And on the Commercial side, the growth was surprisingly high given the corporate banking book growth within the commercial deposit growth. About 80% of the growth was in corporate banking. So at the time, we were targeting, let's get LCR, full LCR north of 100%. We actually came in at 118%. So definitely did better than we initially expected than what we were dissecting the quarter end results. It really makes sense that the corporate banking book did better. And as one of sort of hidden benefits of the RWA diet is that we are getting better share of wallet within that corporate banking book, and that also helped drive the deposit growth. So overall, a very strong quarter. Again, for us on the deposit side, we expect continued growth in the fourth quarter, albeit at a little bit lower growth rate but still up a bit in the fourth quarter.

在商業方面，考慮到商業存款成長中企業銀行帳戶的成長，成長速度出乎意料地高。約80%的成長來自企業銀行業務。所以當時我們的目標是讓 LCR 達到 100% 以上的完整 LCR。我們實際上達到了 118%。因此，確實比我們最初預期的要好於我們剖析季度末結果的結果。企業銀行帳戶表現較好確實是有道理的。 RWA 飲食的隱性好處之一是，我們在企業銀行帳戶中獲得了更好的錢包份額，這也有助於推動存款成長。總的來說，這是一個非常強勁的季度。同樣，對於存款方面，我們預計第四季將繼續成長，儘管增速略有下降，但第四季仍將有所上升。

Perfect. That's very helpful. And then if I could switch gears for just a second. The securities portfolio remarks, I guess you all might come out looking a little heavier than some others. But by the same token, you guys have been more hesitant to use the HCM classification as well. I guess just any updated thoughts on sort of how you're thinking about that. It's at least optically, would help out levels, if not in terms of real world. But just curious to hear your updated thoughts.

完美的。這非常有幫助。如果我能換一下檔位就好了。證券投資組合評論，我想你們可能看起來比其他一些人重一點。但出於同樣的原因，你們對於使用 HCM 分類也更加猶豫。我想只是關於你如何看待這個問題的任何更新的想法。至少在視覺上，即使不是在現實世界方面，也會有助於提高水準。但只是想聽聽你的最新想法。

Yes, if you break it down between real world and regulatory world, that's really how we are looking at this in the real world with really the economic risk. Whenever you have a fixed rate asset, whether that's in AFS, HTM or in the loan portfolio, you have that economic risk to higher rates. We have elected to hold our securities in AFS, and we'll continue to do so, given that it gives us better flexibility and opportunity to reposition as the environment changes. But when you are in the real world managing the balance sheet, how we approach balance sheet management is in totality. And you can look at our strong NII results, our interest-bearing liability results, any of the measures relative to peers, the total balance sheet is performing very well. We're going to grow NII this year, 3% to 5%. Others are shrinking. So our philosophy is paying off in the real world.

是的，如果你把它分成現實世界和監管世界，這就是我們在現實世界中看待經濟風險的方式。每當您擁有固定利率資產時，無論是 AFS、HTM 還是貸款組合，您都會面臨更高利率的經濟風險。我們選擇在 AFS 中持有我們的證券，我們將繼續這樣做，因為它為我們提供了更好的靈活性和隨著環境變化而重新定位的機會。但是，當您在現實世界中管理資產負債表時，我們如何進行資產負債表管理是全面的。你可以看看我們強勁的國家資訊基礎設施結果、我們的付息負債結果、任何相對於同業的指標，總資產負債表的表現都非常好。今年我們的 NII 將會成長 3% 到 5%。其他人則在萎縮。所以我們的理念在現實世界中得到了回報。

The challenge simply comes from the fair value of a single line item and putting that into capital. We're not insensitive to how that looks on the face of the balance sheet and the tangible book value per share. But we still believe it is prudent to have that flexibility because flexibility has value. In terms of the regulatory risk, perhaps one of the details that we continue to evaluate as something we've not really communicated to all of you externally, is that given the burn down that you have in the presentation and the significant, whether it's static rate, forward rate, you're looking at 60%, 65% of the AOCI burn down during the transition into the new capital regimes, assuming the rules play out as currently written, and that burn down is going to happen on our portfolio because our portfolio has structured. We have defined maturities unlike those portfolios that are in residential mortgage-backed, instruments with convexity and extension risk, we know our portfolio is going to pay down.

挑戰僅來自於單一專案的公允價值並將其轉化為資本。我們對資產負債表和每股有形帳面價值的表現並非不敏感。但我們仍然認為保持這種靈活性是明智的，因為靈活性是有價值的。就監管風險而言，也許我們繼續評估的細節之一是我們沒有真正向外部傳達給你們所有人的細節，那就是考慮到你們在演示中的燒毀和重要內容，無論它是靜態的利率，遠期利率，在過渡到新資本製度期間，您會看到60%、65% 的AOCI 燒毀，假設規則按照目前的規定執行，並且這種燒毀將發生在我們的投資組合上，因為我們的投資組合已經結構化。我們定義的期限與住宅抵押貸款支持的投資組合、具有凸性和延期風險的工具不同，我們知道我們的投資組合將會得到回報。

And we know that this is going to be very manageable from a regulatory capital perspective. When we model the capital impact at a fully phased-in level on AOCI, the impact on CET1 is about 125 basis points when you reach the third quarter of 2028 and that's why we continue to accrete CET1 is to be able to have sufficient regulatory capital for that world. And in fact, should rates get north of 8%, we would still be maintaining a CET1 well above regulatory (inaudible) would be over 8% CET1 in that environment.

我們知道，從監管資本的角度來看，這將是非常容易管理的。當我們對 AOCI 完全分階段水準的資本影響進行建模時，到 2028 年第三季度，對 CET1 的影響約為 125 個基點，這就是為什麼我們繼續增加 CET1 是為了能夠擁有足夠的監管資本為了那個世界。事實上，如果利率超過 8%，我們仍將維持遠高於監管（聽不清楚）的 CET1，在這種環境下，CET1 將超過 8%。

So we feel good about how we're positioned, how we will roll down the curve and ultimately, the regulatory capital. It's just one of the challenges in this environment with everything in AFS is that you have that mark on the tangible book value per share, that erosion. But at the same time, should rates fall. I think all of you would be very pleased with how much tangible book value accretion, we would report in that environment.

因此，我們對自己的定位、如何降低曲線以及最終的監管資本感到滿意。在這種環境下，AFS 的所有挑戰之一就是每股有形帳面價值上的標記，即侵蝕。但同時，利率是否應該下降。我想你們所有人都會對我們在這種環境下報告的有形帳面價值成長感到非常滿意。

And Scott, if I just put a point on the last thing. Jamie said, I mean, we believe investors want us to do what is best for managing the business and for recognizing the fact that options have value but if you believe that the AOCI mark is weighing on the stock, then the other way to look at it is the burn down is 25% accretion intangible book value per share in the next 2 years just given the current outlook on rates, which is a pretty unique buying opportunity, the other way to look at it.

史考特，如果我只是對最後一件事發表意見的話。傑米說，我的意思是，我們相信投資者希望我們做最有利於管理業務並認識到期權有價值這一事實的事情，但如果你認為 AOCI 標記正在影響股票，那麼換個角度來看考慮到目前的利率前景，未來兩年每股無形帳面價值將減少25%，從另一個角度來看，這是一個非常獨特的買入機會。

And your next question comes from the line of Erika Najarian from UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀 (UBS) 的 Erika Najarian。

Jamie, this first one is for you. Not to belabor the earlier point, but all the PPNR metrics and balance sheet metrics look great and so did the forward look. And I guess, if you could just explain what happened in the quarter, I think given that your portfolio -- your securities portfolio is 61% CMBS. I think investors that know you well, expected not as much negative convexity. Was there something unique that happened in this quarter in the portfolio that -- where the AOCI was that much wider?

傑米，第一個是給你的。無需贅述先前的觀點，但所有 PPNR 指標和資產負債表指標看起來都很棒，前瞻性也是如此。我想，如果你能解釋一下本季發生的事情，我認為考慮到你的投資組合——你的證券投資組合是 61% CMBS。我認為熟悉你的投資者預計不會有那麼多負凸性。本季的投資組合中是否發生了一些獨特的事情—AOCI 範圍更廣？

Not really. It was a pretty vanilla quarter for us where we had cash flows in the quarter of about $500 million. We put about $700 million to work of the excess cash in short duration Level 1 treasury floaters. When you look at the AOCI walk that happened in the quarter, the securities portfolio because everything is in AFS, worsened about $1.2 billion and if you look at how the 5-year move increased about 45 basis points, the 10-year move to about 75% and then spreads widen 5 bps on the CMBS and about 15 bps in mortgage. So when you add it all up with the DV01 of about $25 million, that gets you to the AOCI movement for the quarter on the investment portfolio. And so it was in line at least with our expectations with how rates were moving during the quarter.

並不真地。對我們來說，這是一個非常普通的季度，我們的現金流量約為 5 億美元。我們投入約 7 億美元用於短期 1 級公債浮動利率的多餘現金。當你觀察本季發生的AOCI 走勢時，由於一切都在AFS 中，證券投資組合惡化了約12 億美元，如果你觀察5 年期波動增加了約45 個基點，10 年期波動增加了約45個基點。75%，然後 CMBS 利差擴大 5 個基點，抵押貸款利差擴大約 15 個基點。因此，當您將其與約 2500 萬美元的 DV01 相加時，您就可以了解該季度投資組合的 AOCI 變動情況。因此，這至少符合我們對本季利率走勢的預期。

Got it. And my follow-up question was for you, Tim. I think it was a very powerful statement you said in the beginning of the call in terms of confidence that you could return to loan growth next year. I think several of your peers that have similar CET1 ratios and similar AOCI marks are still talking about dieting. Could you give us a sense of, first of all, if you could confirm what the AOCI was in basis points, Jamie. And second, Tim, how are you balancing on one hand, the market wants you to continue to build capital as we approach that transitional date on CET1? And on the other, we're still hearing low demand from corporates for financing.

知道了。我的後續問題是問你的，提姆。我認為您在電話會議開始時所說的非常有力的聲明，表明您對明年可以恢復貸款成長充滿信心。我認為您的一些具有類似 CET1 比率和類似 AOCI 分數的同齡人仍在談論節食。 Jamie，首先，您能否確認 AOCI 的基點是多少？其次，提姆，您如何平衡一方面，市場希望您在我們接近 CET1 過渡日期時繼續累積資本？另一方面，我們仍然聽到企業的融資需求較低。

So there's a lot in there, but that's the right question, Erika. So a few things here. One, I think -- we have tried to be consistent in how we confront change or a need for change and how we operate the company. And the underlying principle here is that if you have to make a change, it's better to do it quickly so that you can get it behind you and return to normal mode of operations. So we have been aggressive in building liquidity. Jamie talked about the fact that we were Cat-1 LCR compliant in both August and September this year. And I think equivalently, we have tried to be very proactive about how we manage through the RWA diet.

裡面有很多內容，但這是正確的問題，艾莉卡。這裡有一些事情。第一，我認為，我們在應對變革或變革需求以及公司運作方式方面努力保持一致。這裡的基本原則是，如果你必須做出改變，最好盡快做，這樣你就可以把它拋在腦後，回到正常的營運模式。因此，我們一直在積極建立流動性。 Jamie 談到了我們在今年 8 月和 9 月都符合 Cat-1 LCR 標準的事實。我認為同樣，我們也嘗試非常主動地了解如何透過 RWA 飲食進行管理。

So we have one additional quarter to go of dieting to hit our RWA target, which was about a 2% reduction. If you just look at what we're expecting in the fourth quarter. And from there, we'll have achieved what we think we need to achieve in order to be able to refocus on growing the balance sheet. Prudently, I should say, growing the loan portfolio prudently sequentially over the course of the next year. We have the benefit of a very high level of profitability right now, right? We obviously don't have all of the peer reports at this point. But if you look at the core profitability measures here, they're excellent. We're generating 30-plus basis points of CET1 a quarter, which is quite helpful as it relates to being able to both build capital and fund loan growth.

因此，我們還有一個季度的節食時間才能達到 RWA 目標，即減少約 2%。如果你看看我們對第四季的預期。從那時起，我們將實現我們認為需要實現的目標，以便能夠重新專注於擴大資產負債表。我應該說，要謹慎地在明年繼續謹慎地增加貸款組合。我們現在擁有非常高的獲利水平，對吧？目前我們顯然還沒有所有的同行報告。但如果你看看這裡的核心獲利能力指標，你會發現它們非常出色。我們每季產生 30 多個基點的 CET1，這非常有幫助，因為它涉及能夠建立資本和為貸款成長提供資金。

And then while demand is tepid, across the sector. We have some idiosyncratic benefits here that probably have been a little bit lost behind the diet in the form of both dividend and provide, which continue to perform very well and generate growth. And the sustained multiyear investment we've made in expanding our middle market coverage in the Southeast markets, the middle-market relationships in terms of the new relationships we've added in the company year-to-date, are 25% ahead of our all-time record pace.

儘管整個產業的需求不溫不火。我們在這裡有一些特殊的好處，這些好處可能以股息和供應的形式在飲食中被忽略了，但它們繼續表現良好並產生成長。我們在擴大東南市場的中間市場覆蓋範圍方面進行了持續多年的投資，就我們今年迄今在公司中增加的新關係而言，中間市場關係比我們的領先了 25%。創歷史記錄的速度。

And we still have bankers who are seasoning in, in terms of building their portfolios that we have been fortunate to hire over the course of the past few years. So that -- those are the things that really provide the catalyst in an environment where demand in aggregate is a little bit more tepid and then the raw capacity in the form of capital generation to be able to support that statement that we can return to growth next year.

我們仍然有在建立投資組合方面經驗豐富的銀行家，我們在過去幾年中有幸聘用了他們。因此，在總體需求不溫不火的環境中，這些真正提供了催化劑，然後以資本生成的形式提供原始能力，從而能夠支持我們可以恢復增長的聲明明年。

And then, Erika, on your other components of the question, CET1 for us finished the quarter at 9.8%. Excluding the investment portfolio, AOCI, that number would be 6.3%. And then the RWA bloat from the pending rules would be about 2% to 3% of RWA, which is about 20 basis points. So we would look to be at a 6.1% level. But as we talked about, then the earnings power of the company is very strong. We continue to defer the buybacks. We'll continue to accrete capital and with the passage of time, given the structure in the investment portfolio, the burn down of that AOCI will be 65% or so by the time we reach the fully phased-in level. So we feel that this is a very manageable time line for the company. In fact, have a lot of cushion should rates even go higher.

然後，Erika，關於問題的其他組成部分，我們的 CET1 本季結束時為 9.8%。不包括投資組合 AOCI，該數字將為 6.3%。然後，待決規則導致的 RWA 膨脹約為 RWA 的 2% 至 3%，約 20 個基點。所以我們預計會達到 6.1% 的水平。但正如我們所說，那麼公司的獲利能力是非常強的。我們持續延後回購。我們將繼續累積資本，隨著時間的推移，考慮到投資組合的結構，當我們達到完全分階段的水平時，AOCI 的燒毀率將達到 65% 左右。所以我們認為這對公司來說是一個非常容易管理的時間表。事實上，如果利率進一步走高，我們還有很大的緩衝空間。

And your next question comes from the line of Gerard Cassidy from RBC.

您的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行 (RBC) 的 Gerard Cassidy。

Tim, coming back to your opening comments about your corporate and commercial customers being cautious and you yourself seeing some of the economic cross winds or cross currents being cautious. I noticed yesterday that the real GDP number that the Atlanta Fed puts out for the third quarter, is calling for a 5.4% real GDP growth in the third quarter. It's probably too high. But the point is there are a lot of cross currents. Can you share with us when you talk to your customers, what do you think is going to take them to become more optimistic and most cautious? Is it a Fed halting and increasing short-term interest rates? Is it better inflation numbers? What do you think they're waiting for before they really start committing to borrowing more money and growing their businesses?

提姆，回到你的開場評論，你的企業和商業客戶保持謹慎，你自己看到一些經濟逆風或逆流也保持謹慎。我昨天注意到，亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行公佈的第三季實際GDP數據顯示，第三季實際GDP成長5.4%。可能太高了。但關鍵是有很多交叉流。您能否與我們分享一下，當您與客戶交談時，您認為什麼會讓他們變得更加樂觀和謹慎？是聯準會停止並提高短期利率嗎？通膨數據是否較好？您認為他們在真正開始借更多錢並發展業務之前正在等待什麼？

Yes, that's a great question, Gerard. I think, honestly, it's less uncertainty, right? So to your point. So you have a lot of variables underway here. You have the Fed and rates, as you mentioned, you have an immense amount of government spending right now, which is propping up economic growth in certain sectors of the economy that otherwise wouldn't be there. You have sort of unusual times in the housing market, where we have both high rates and still stable or even in some markets, slightly growing home prices, even the home affordability is at an all-time low.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，傑拉德。老實說，我認為不確定性較小，對嗎？所以就你的觀點而言。所以這裡有很多變數。正如你所提到的，你有聯準會和利率，你現在有大量的政府支出，這正在支撐某些經濟部門的經濟成長，否則這些部門就不會出現這種成長。房地產市場正經歷著一段不尋常的時期，利率很高，但仍然穩定，甚至在某些市場，房價略有上漲，甚至住房負擔能力也處於歷史最低水平。

And it's just, I think, more than anything else, we need to see some of those variables get fixed, right, in terms of what happens. So if the Fed stops raising rates and then introduces a cut, I think that would be helpful. I think that we have to see the last of the stimulus dollars come out of consumer accounts and see what the floor looks like in terms of consumer spending. And then I think we have to have a better sense for what the underlying economic activity looks like in areas where the government spending the $2 trillion that are coming out of the various government programs are not driving a lot of the economic activity for people to get a little bit more focused. Because again, what I hear and I went out to have the opportunity to get feedback from about 3 dozen clients shortly before the call here, is they're seeing a gradual slowdown that is essentially disposable income.

我認為，最重要的是，我們需要看到其中一些變數根據所發生的情況得到修復。因此，如果聯準會停止升息然後降息，我認為這會有所幫助。我認為我們必須看到最後的刺激資金從消費者帳戶中流出，並看看消費者支出的底線是什麼樣的。然後我認為我們必須更好地了解一些領域的基本經濟活動是什麼樣的，在這些領域，政府從各種政府計劃中支出的 2 萬億美元並沒有推動人們獲得大量經濟活動。更專註一點。因為，在這次電話會議之前不久，我和我出去有機會從大約 3 打客戶那裡得到回饋，他們看到可支配收入逐漸放緩。

They're seeing disparities on the consumer side between either the businesses or take hotels, hotel properties that either cater to retired people or to high-end consumers in high-end destinations continue to do well, whereas the mass market properties are starting to soften. We hear them on the B2B side being much more guarded as it relates to liquidity and monitoring cash and adjusting staffing levels and just delaying the larger CapEx investments here.

他們看到企業或酒店之間在消費者方面存在差異，迎合退休人員或高端目的地高端消費者的酒店物業繼續表現良好，而大眾市場物業開始疲軟。我們聽說 B2B 方面的他們更加謹慎，因為這涉及流動性、監控現金和調整人員配置水平，只是推遲了更大的資本支出投資。

And I think an interesting data point, as I had the chance to spend a little bit of time with the head of economic development for one of the large states in our footprint and I was asking about the new project pipeline. So yes, pipeline is still robust. There's a lot of discussion going on, but the time to decision from when they're initially contacted about a potential opportunity for either a new plant or a headquarter relocation or otherwise to the award in a given state has moved from 200 days as recently as 18 months ago to over 500 days. So you can just see the grind down here of economic activity as people sit on the sidelines and wait to get a better sense for what direction we're headed on the economy.

我認為這是一個有趣的數據點，因為我有機會與我們足跡中的一個大州的經濟發展負責人花了一點時間，我詢問了新項目的情況。所以是的，管道仍然強大。正在進行許多討論，但從最初聯繫他們關於新工廠或總部搬遷的潛在機會或以其他方式在給定州授予合約的決定時間已從最近的 200 天縮短到18 個月前至 500 多天。因此，你可以看到經濟活動的進展，人們坐在場邊等待更好地了解我們的經濟發展方向。

Very insightful. And then on credit, tying into maybe the economic comments that you just made, and I don't know if this is for Greg and Jamie, but can you share with us -- Jamie, you showed some very strong credit numbers prepared remarks. And can you tell us, is it better underwriting, if you look back to the financial crisis, through the cycle, net charge-off ratio, I guess it's quite a bit higher than what you're thinking today?

非常有見地。然後在信用方面，可能會結合您剛剛發表的經濟評論，我不知道這是否適用於格雷格和傑米，但您能否與我們分享- 傑米，您展示了一些非常有力的信用數據準備的評論。您能否告訴我們，如果您回顧金融危機，通過週期，淨沖銷率，承保是否更好，我想它比您今天的想法要高很多？

And then second, is it also your customers, because of the pandemic and what they went through, are they just better managed today from a balance sheet perspective than was the case pre-financial crisis?

其次，是否也是您的客戶，由於大流行以及他們所經歷的事情，從資產負債表的角度來看，他們今天的管理是否比金融危機前的情況更好？

Yes, it's Greg. It's a great question. I think it's all of the above, right? I think we have been very disciplined, very fundamental about our through-the-cycle underwriting for the past several years. We've been very disciplined around our concentration geographically or by product, right? So we have a very well-diversified portfolio. As a result, we're not seeing trending one way or the other. So we've just been disciplined around that. We've been disciplined around ongoing portfolio management, right? So we are proactive. We're getting out ahead of issues when they arise. We are stress testing 200 basis points ahead of the yield curve -- forward-looking yield curve. And we've seen throughout the cycles. To the extent we get out ahead of this and we identified issues earlier, we minimize. We also have the ability then to bring solutions to our clients, right, to help them through some of these cycles.

是的，是格雷格。這是一個很好的問題。我想以上這些都是吧？我認為過去幾年我們對整個週期的承保非常有紀律，非常基本。我們在地理或產品方面的集中度一直非常嚴格，對嗎？因此，我們擁有非常多元化的投資組合。因此，我們沒有看到任何一種趨勢。所以我們只是在這方面受到了約束。我們一直在持續的投資組合管理方面遵守紀律，對嗎？所以我們是積極主動的。當問題出現時，我們會提前解決。我們正在對殖利率曲線—前瞻性殖利率曲線—提前200個基點進行壓力測試。我們已經看到了整個週期。只要我們能夠提前解決問題並儘早發現問題，我們就能最大限度地減少問題。我們也有能力為我們的客戶提供解決方案，幫助他們度過其中一些週期。

And so we're seeing all of that across the board, be it in our commercial real estate portfolio, very diverse. We weren't as aggressive in that portfolio as some other banks were when rates were 550 basis points lower and the same thing through our C&I book. So it's fundamental, sticking to those fundamentals, staying disciplined, both on the front-end underwriting, client selection and then staying on top of the portfolio.

因此，無論是在我們的商業房地產投資組合中，我們都看到所有這些都非常多樣化。當利率降低 550 個基點時，我們的投資組合併不像其他一些銀行那樣積極，我們的 C&I 帳簿中的情況也是如此。因此，這是根本性的，堅持這些基本原則，保持紀律，無論是在前端承保、客戶選擇或保持投資組合的領先地位。

Your next question comes from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I guess maybe just following up on Gerard's question around the macro and credit. Tim, just if you can add to your comments, there's still some concern that we could hit a recession first half of next year could drive significant deterioration in credit quality. One, how much of a visibility do you have into credit change over the next few quarters where you can safely say that's unlikely. And maybe, Jamie, just talk to us about the ability of the CECL model to capture that kind of deterioration ahead of time.

我想也許只是跟進杰拉德關於宏觀和信貸的問題。提姆，如果您能補充您的評論，仍然有人擔心我們可能會在明年上半年陷入衰退，導致信貸品質顯著惡化。第一，您對未來幾季的信用變化有多少了解，您可以放心地說這不太可能。 Jamie，也許可以和我們談談 CECL 模型提前捕捉這種惡化的能力。

So good morning Ebrahim, it's good to chat. I think a couple of comments. So narrowly to your point, I think we have fairly good visibility into what the first half of the year is going to look like. And we're not seeing anything at the moment that would suggest that we're headed toward credit deterioration in the first half, right? We talked about it in the script delinquency formation that delinquency rates are actually down on the early-stage basis. NPAs are down sequentially, and we have a roll forward for you in the appendix. The slides, which would indicate that, that trend is likely to continue through the fourth quarter. And on the Consumer side, just as an example, the nice thing about the way that we manage delinquencies is it's like an assembly line. So you can see in the 0 to 29 and then the 30-plus buckets what you're going to be dealing with or early next year, and there just isn't anything in there to be worried about.

早安，易卜拉欣，很高興聊天。我想提幾點意見。因此，就您的觀點而言，我認為我們對今年上半年的情況有相當好的了解。目前我們沒有看到任何跡象表明我們上半年的信用狀況將惡化，對吧？我們在劇本拖欠形成中討論過，拖欠率實際上在早期階段是下降的。 NPA 依序下降，我們在附錄中為您提供了前滾。幻燈片表明，這種趨勢可能會持續到第四季度。在消費者方面，舉個例子，我們管理拖欠的方式的好處是它就像一條裝配線。因此，您可以在 0 到 29 以及 30 多個桶中看到您將要處理的內容或明年初的內容，並且沒有什麼可擔心的。

With that said, the base case we're using as we think about the management of the company, strategic investments, how we manage expenses and otherwise, continues to assume that maybe the market is a little bit too bullish on the idea of a soft landing here. I mean, again, you just look at the payroll numbers, so -- and apply a human lens to it. So jobs are up, but job participation is flat. Labor force participation is flat. And average hours worked are down and unemployment is stable. What that means is you have more people working 2 jobs because they're not getting enough hours or earning enough money at the job that they were working -- the base job that they were working to be able to cover their expenses.

話雖如此，當我們考慮公司的管理、策略投資、我們如何管理費用等方面時，我們使用的基本案例仍然假設市場可能有點過於看好軟性的想法。降落在這裡。我的意思是，你只需查看薪資數字，然後用人性的視角來看待它。因此，就業機會增加了，但工作參與率卻持平。勞動參與率持平。平均工作時間下降，失業率穩定。這意味著有更多的人從事兩份工作，因為他們沒有獲得足夠的時間或在他們所從事的工作中賺到足夠的錢——他們所做的基本工作能夠支付他們的費用。

So when you then look at declining real incomes, the only thing that really would be standing between somebody who is having to work 2 jobs and is still suffering from a declining real income and credit delinquency is the fact that there was the stimulus buffer that built up because people had forbearance on loan portfolios and stimulus dollars. Well, the student loans are back now. Housing inflation is still very high at 7.2%, I think, in the most recent prints. And those are just early indicators that there are people across the country that are struggling a lot more than the headline numbers would suggest.

因此，當你看到實際收入下降時，對於那些不得不做兩份工作並且仍然遭受實際收入下降和信貸拖欠之苦的人來說，唯一真正存在的障礙是，建立了刺激緩衝上漲是因為人們對貸款組合和刺激資金有寬容。嗯，學生貸款現在又回來了。我認為，在最近的報告中，房屋通膨率仍然很高，達到 7.2%。這些只是早期跡象，表明全國各地的人們所面臨的困難比標題數字所顯示的要嚴重得多。

So I feel good because the 2 areas, I would say, the market is most worried about right now are subprime consumers and renters where we have very little in the way of exposure on virtually no subprime, I think the lowest level there of any of our peers who provide information on that front and 85% of the consumer exposure is to homeowners. And then in commercial real estate, where, again, our exposure relative to total capital is lower than anybody else's. And because we weren't trying to grow that portfolio materially, we're able to be much more selective, which is reflected in superior credit metrics right now when you look at our commercial real estate book relative to others. So it's both smaller and better performing.

所以我感覺很好，因為我想說，市場現在最擔心的兩個領域是次貸消費者和租房者，我們幾乎沒有接觸過次貸，我認為這是所有次貸中最低水平的。我們的同行提供了這方面的訊息，85% 的消費者接觸的是房主。然後在商業房地產領域，我們相對於總資本的風險敞口再次低於其他任何人。而且因為我們並沒有試圖大幅增加該投資組合，所以我們能夠更具選擇性，當您查看我們相對於其他人的商業房地產書籍時，這反映在現在卓越的信用指標上。因此它體積更小，性能也更好。

And in terms of how the consumer is doing and what we see in our data, the average consumer balance is still -- deposit balance is still 15% above pre-COVID levels. But to Tim's point, renters are back to pre-COVID levels and sub-660 FICOs are actually below pre-COVID level. So the averages can be a little bit misleading in terms of what credit outcomes may bring in 2024. But as Tim said, we're certainly well positioned from a credit perspective on our balance sheet.

就消費者的行為以及我們在數據中看到的情況而言，消費者的平均存款餘額仍然比新冠疫情前的水平高出 15%。但就蒂姆而言，租屋者已回到新冠疫情前的水平，而低於 660 的 FICO 實際上低於新冠疫情前的水平。因此，對於 2024 年信貸結果可能帶來的影響，這些平均值可能會有點誤導。但正如提姆所說，從資產負債表的信貸角度來看，我們確實處於有利位置。

And from an ACL perspective on the second part of your question, the scenarios we use from Moody's have GDP contracting almost near 0. So the modeling certainly picks up erosion in the forecast. In this quarter, you had a slight erosion both in GDP and unemployment as well as with corporate profits and that was part of the reason or the primary reason why our ACL coverage increased from 208 basis points to 211 basis points. It's just we had the benefits of the loan balance reduction and the unused commitment reductions from RWA optimization efforts that offset that.

從 ACL 的角度來看，您問題的第二部分，我們使用穆迪的情景，GDP 收縮幾乎接近 0。因此，模型肯定會在預測中出現侵蝕。本季度，GDP 和失業率以及企業利潤均略有下降，這是我們的 ACL 覆蓋範圍從 208 個基點增加到 211 個基點的部分原因或主要原因。只是我們從貸款餘額減少和 RWA 優化工作中未使用的承諾減少中獲益，抵消了這一點。

Got it. That's helpful. And just as a separate question. In terms of deposit pricing, as we look through next year and if rates don't get cut in higher for longer, are you observing any differences within your geographies, Midwest versus Southeast? Clearly, you're opening a lot of branches in the Southeast. So you have a different strategy there, I assume relative to the home market. Just give us a sense of pricing competition, any differences? And in your view, is deposit pricing now essentially national in nature? Or is it still localized where certain markets could meaningfully outperform or lag in -- on the pricing side?

知道了。這很有幫助。只是作為一個單獨的問題。就存款定價而言，當我們展望明年時，如果利率在較長時間內不會進一步下調，您是否觀察到您所在地區（中西部與東南部）之間存在任何差異？顯然，您將在東南部開設許多分支機構。所以我認為相對於國內市場，你們在那裡有不同的策略。只是給我們一個價格競爭的感覺，有什麼差別嗎？在您看來，現在的存款定價本質上是全國性的嗎？或者它仍然是本地化的，某些市場在定價方面可能明顯優於或落後？

Yes, excellent question. I'll start and then turn it over to Bryan. In terms of total deposit cost and deposit pricing, the quarter played out as expected with our beta ticking up from total deposits, excluding brokered to 50%. We expect that to hit the 53% beta we talked about a quarter or two ago. So the pricing is playing out as we had expected. And I think most of the bank's beta guides are coming up to where we've been at this hire for longer scenario. But in terms of each geography, Bryan, do you want to touch on that?

是的，很好的問題。我先開始，然後把它交給布萊恩。就總存款成本和存款定價而言，本季的表現符合預期，總存款（不包括經紀業務）的貝塔值上升至 50%。我們預計貝塔值將達到我們一兩個季度前討論過的 53%。因此，定價正如我們所預期的那樣。我認為該銀行的大部分測試指南都達到了我們在長期招聘中的水平。但就每個地理位置而言，布萊恩，你想談談嗎？

Yes, absolutely. Thanks, Jamie. In general, I think what we're seeing is that it's a combination of -- it is local and a national impact right now. And what you're seeing is that you may have periods of time where the dominant players or the bigger players in specific markets may just have a lower liquidity need. And so that gives you a little bit of an opportunity to be a little bit more aggressive and do well from a share perspective. But what we've seen since March is that tends to rotate around a little bit.

是的，一點沒錯。謝謝，傑米。總的來說，我認為我們現在看到的是，它是地方和全國影響的結合。您所看到的是，您可能會在一段時間內，特定市場中的主導參與者或較大參與者的流動性需求可能較低。因此，這給了你一個機會，讓你變得更加積極進取，從股票的角度來看，做得更好。但自三月以來我們所看到的情況是，情況往往會略有變化。

And ultimately, as people start to realize as deposit competition is moving in the market, you're just seeing people then start to react. Your most rate-sensitive customers are absolutely focused on the national markets. They tend to be the ones that are most willing to use a nontraditional provider, and so you definitely see some of that. But in general, it tends to -- you still tend to have some opportunity to take advantage of some geographic differences, but those geographic differences can rotate over time.

最終，當人們開始意識到市場上的存款競爭正在發生時，你會看到人們開始做出反應。您對費率最敏感的客戶絕對關注國內市場。他們往往是最願意使用非傳統提供者的人，所以你肯定會看到其中的一些。但總的來說，你仍然傾向於有一些機會利用某些地理差異，但這些地理差異可能會隨著時間的推移而輪換。

And your next question comes from the line of Ken Usdin from Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

I think you guys said in the conference season that the fourth quarter would likely be the bottom for NIM and the first quarter of next year will be the bottom for NII dollars. Just wondering, given the guide you gave today, if that still foots to that and anything we should be thinking about in terms of like getting to that NII bottoming?

我想你們在會議季節說過，第四季可能是 NIM 的底部，明年第一季將是 NII 美元的底部。只是想知道，考慮到您今天提供的指南，這是否仍然有效，以及我們應該考慮什麼，例如達到 NII 觸底？

The first quarter, the day count is what will drive that NII trough. The NIM, whether it's the fourth quarter or the first quarter is going to be driven solely by how much excess cash we have from the strong deposit performance. So we'll see, but it's going to be one of those 2 quarters.

第一季的天數將推動 NII 觸底。淨利差，無論是第四季度還是第一季度，都將完全取決於我們從強勁的存款表現中獲得多少多餘現金。所以我們拭目以待，但這將是這兩個季度之一。

Okay, got it. And then as you think forward, how do we understand the benefit that you'll get once rates get to a peak about fixed rate loan repricing. I think it's clear to understand how the securities book moves. But on the loan side, can you walk us through just how much benefit you might be able to see as we get into next year from that side being able to offset any lagging deposit pricing?

好，知道了。然後，當您展望未來時，我們如何理解一旦利率達到固定利率貸款重新定價的峰值，您將獲得的好處。我認為證券帳簿的走勢已經很清楚了。但在貸款方面，您能否向我們介紹一下，當我們進入明年時，您可能會從這方面看到多少好處，能夠抵消任何滯後的存款定價？

Yes, the consumer book, in particular, is where most of the fixed rate repricing benefit resides. If you look at 2024, we'll have about $8 billion of consumer loan payoffs as how we model it. And front book rates are 200 to 300 basis points higher than back book rates. And so if you take that, coupled with, call it, $4 billion in security maturities and cash flows, you end up with about $300 million tailwind on an annualized basis. Obviously, that will happen during the course of 2024, so take half of that for the in-year effect. But you're looking at $300 million type of run rate benefit just from 1 year's repricing.

是的，尤其是消費者帳簿，是大部分固定利率重新定價收益所在的地方。如果你看看 2024 年，按照我們的模型，我們將獲得約 80 億美元的消費貸款回報。前預訂利率比後預訂利率高 200 至 300 個基點。因此，如果你考慮到這一點，再加上 40 億美元的證券到期日和現金流，那麼按年化計算，你最終將獲得約 3 億美元的順風車。顯然，這將在 2024 年期間發生，因此將其中的一半用於年內效應。但您看到的是，僅僅一年的重新定價就帶來了 3 億美元的運行率收益。

Got it, okay. If I could just ask one last one. The swap slide you have just talks about the '25 -- 2025 versus '23 update. Is there anything different or any thought process different about some other banks who have been adding securities based swaps to protect capital and add a little variable rate juice? Have you done anything like that incrementally? Or is that slide looks pretty intact in terms of how you're approaching swap portfolios of both loans and securities?

明白了，好吧。如果我能問最後一個就好了。您剛剛看到的交換幻燈片討論了“25 - 2025”與“23”的更新。其他一些銀行一直在增加基於證券的掉期以保護資本並增加一點可變利率，這是否有什麼不同或任何思考過程不同？你有沒有循序漸進地做過類似的事情？或者，就您如何處理貸款和證券的掉期投資組合而言，這張投影片看起來是否完好無損？

Yes, we've done nothing incremental at this point. Obviously, we're paying attention to the market and evaluating opportunities. I think more than anything, as Jamie mentioned, the bullet/locked-out structure of our portfolio ultimately is our hedge to higher rates right now because we now have those defined maturities that are going to come in, and we think that keeps us relatively well positioned. But we're constantly keeping an eye on the market and figuring out if there are opportunities for us to continue to improve our positioning.

是的，我們目前還沒有採取任何增量措施。顯然，我們正在關注市場並評估機會。我認為最重要的是，正如傑米所提到的，我們投資組合的子彈/鎖定結構最終是我們現在對更高利率的對沖，因為我們現在有那些即將到來的確定的到期日，我們認為這使我們相對而言位置很好。但我們一直在密切關注市場，看看是否有機會繼續改善我們的定位。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Mayo from Wells Fargo Securities.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行證券公司的麥克梅奧。

I guess this goes in the category of no good deed goes unpunished. Your efficiency ratio of 55%. Do you think that can improve next year, which is another way of saying is there any shot at getting positive operating leverage? And when I give the positives and negatives, and correct me, it looks like from the negatives, the RWA diet certainly helps capital, but has a cost to NII. And I think you mentioned NII not bottoming maybe until first, second quarter. You have the cumulative beta going up to 53%. It's in line, but still going higher. You're opening 35 new branches a year.

我想這屬於善行不免於罰的範疇。你的效率為55%。您認為明年情況會有所改善嗎？換句話說，是否有機會獲得積極的營運槓桿？當我給予正面和負面的觀點並糾正我時，從負面的角度來看，RWA 飲食確實對資本有幫助，但會為 NII 帶來成本。我想你提到 NII 可能要到第一、第二季才會觸底。您的累積貝塔值高達 53%。它符合預期，但仍在走高。您每年開設 35 家新分行。

On the other hand, your RWA diet will end and maybe you can lean into the balance sheet more. You mentioned the deposits, the smallest DDA increase since March, the excess cash, which you could choose to put to work, so really part of the tailwind is the asset beta relative to the deposit beta. So does your efficiency improve next year? Can you get positive operating leverage? Is that too much of a stretch? How do you think about that?

另一方面，您的 RWA 飲食將會結束，也許您可以更專注於資產負債表。你提到了存款，這是自 3 月以來最小的 DDA 增幅，還有多餘的現金，你可以選擇將其投入使用，所以真正的推動因素是相對於存款貝塔的資產貝塔。那麼明年你的效率會提高嗎？你能獲得積極的經營槓桿嗎？這是否太過牽強？您對此有何看法？

Yes, I think it will be environment dependent, which I'm sure is not the answer you want. But I think you hit on all the right points, Mike, which is the RWA diet makes positive operating leverage difficult in 2024. With that said, we will do everything in our power to deliver as good a results as we can, but I think it will be a challenge in 2024.

是的，我認為這取決於環境，我確信這不是您想要的答案。但我認為你說對了，麥克，RWA 飲食使得 2024 年積極的經營槓桿變得困難。話雖如此，我們將盡一切努力提供盡可能好的結果，但我認為2024年這將是一個挑戰。

The old saying is Cincinnati invented hustle, so we're going to work as hard as we possibly can on that front.

老話說辛辛那提發明了喧囂，所以我們將在這方面盡我們所能地努力。

And just clarification on the credit side. Did I hear you correctly, you have 0 office delinquencies, 0 office charge-offs. Commercial, you have the lowest inflows to NPA since 2Q '22. You reiterated 35 to 45 basis points through the cycle. Is that correct? And I know it's been asked already, but you're saying the economy is grinding lower doesn't look good. So you just say your credit is economically insensitive at this point? I mean that's like -- don't you think you could maybe be wrong if things don't go so well?

只是在信用方面進行澄清。我沒聽錯吧，你們有 0 筆辦公室拖欠，0 筆辦公室沖銷。商業方面，NPA 流入量是自 2022 年第二季以來最低的。您在整個週期中重申了 35 至 45 個基點。那是對的嗎？我知道已經有人問過這個問題了，但你是說經濟下滑看起來不太好。所以你只是說你的信用在這一點上對經濟不敏感？我的意思是，如果事情進展得不太順利，你不認為你可能是錯的嗎？

Until you got to the last part there, I was going to say in a word, yes. But then you made the question a little more complicated. If you want to...

直到你讀到最後一部分，我想說一句話，是的。但後來你讓問題變得更複雜了。如果你想...

Yes, all of those facts are correct, and we feel very good about all of the work we've done on the credit portfolio over the last 15 years. In terms of it being economically insensitive, no, but within any industry, there are going to be winners and losers, and that's where it comes down to that client selection that Greg referenced. We just believe we are very well positioned, and we've been very diligent and part of the benefit that we're getting right now is the fact that we were not stretching for loan growth over the past several years and we probably had the lowest loan growth guides over the past several years running. And so back to our priorities of stability and profitability ahead of growth.

是的，所有這些事實都是正確的，我們對過去 15 年在信貸投資組合方面所做的所有工作感到非常滿意。就經濟不敏感而言，不，但在任何行業內，都會有贏家和輸家，這就是格雷格提到的客戶選擇的關鍵。我們只是相信我們處於非常有利的位置，而且我們一直非常勤奮，我們現在獲得的部分好處是，我們在過去幾年中沒有擴大貸款增長，而且我們的貸款增長可能是最低的過去幾年的貸款增長指引。因此，回到我們在成長之前的穩定性和盈利能力的優先事項。

Your next question comes from the line of John Pancari from Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari。

Just on the credit side. I know you mentioned that the new NPA inflows were the lowest since the second quarter of '22, excluding the large charged-off items, I guess, could you maybe talk about the sustainability of that? What are you seeing in terms of risk migration and some of your internal risk ratings and everything that -- do you think the inflows are likely to remain that low at this point? And what's the driver of the pressure? Is it the areas everybody suspects in terms of CRE or is it more on the C&I side?

只是在信用方面。我知道您提到新的 NPA 流入量是自 22 年第二季度以來的最低水平，不包括大額沖銷項目，我猜，您能談談這種情況的可持續性嗎？您對風險遷移和一些內部風險評級以及您認為目前資金流入可能保持在這麼低的水平方面有何看法？壓力的驅動因素是什麼？是每個人都懷疑 CRE 方面的領域，還是 C&I 方面更多的領域？

Not on the CRE side, great question. Not on the CRE side, we're not seeing. It doesn't mean we're out of the woods yet. We're watching that portfolio. Clearly, there's stress in that portfolio, but we have so little of it, that's not driving. And as I said earlier, we don't have any geographic or product trends. There's not an industry that's driving our NPA numbers as we sit here today. We have very little from a delinquency standpoint.

不是在 CRE 方面，這是個好問題。在 CRE 方面，我們沒有看到。這並不意味著我們已經走出困境。我們正在關注該投資組合。顯然，該投資組合存在壓力，但我們的壓力很小，這不是驅動力。正如我之前所說，我們沒有任何地理或產品趨勢。當我們今天坐在這裡時，沒有一個行業在推動我們的不良資產數字。從犯罪的角度來看，我們幾乎沒有什麼。

And so again, it gets back to how diverse the portfolio is. Yes, I still think we've got some pressure on the 550 basis point rate increase that will flow through to our clients. But we're on top of the portfolio. It's why we're stressing 200 basis points ahead of the yield curve. So we get out ahead of that stuff. And so could it go up a little bit given all the cross-currents, sure, but I think we're in a great spot. Our client selection has been outstanding. Our through the cycle, very disciplined fundamental underwriting I think gets us through this cycle. And so I feel good about where we are today. And even if it goes up a little bit, it's very controllable.

如此，又回到了投資組合的多樣性。是的，我仍然認為我們面臨著 550 個基點升息的一些壓力，這將流向我們的客戶。但我們在投資組合中處於領先地位。這就是為什麼我們強調殖利率曲線之前 200 個基點。所以我們先於那些事情出去。當然，考慮到所有的不利因素，它可能會上漲一點，但我認為我們處於一個很好的位置。我們的客戶選擇非常出色。我認為，我們在整個週期中非常嚴格的基本面承保可以幫助我們度過這個週期。所以我對我們今天的處境感覺很好。而且即使漲一點點，也是非常可控的。

And then secondly, kind of a 2-parter. Do you have -- I know you mentioned the criticized loans are down in total this quarter versus last. You have the magnitude of that decline? And then on the Shared National Credit side, the portfolio of 29% of loans, I think over the past year that maybe is down a touch. I mean, do you expect that you're going to reduce the size of the Shared National Credit book? And also what is the criticized ratio for that portfolio?

其次，有點像兩人合作。我知道您提到本季受到批評的貸款總額比上一季下降。你知道下降的幅度嗎？然後在共享國家信貸方面，29% 的貸款組合，我認為在過去的一年可能有所下降。我的意思是，您是否期望減少共享國家信用簿的規模？該投資組合受到批評的比率是多少？

Yes, so we reduced the -- it is about 29%, you're right. We reduced that portfolio by about 7% year-to-date, given the diving that Jamie talked about earlier, I would expect that number to probably continue to decline between now and year-end. Our portfolio that SNC portfolio performs better on every metric than the rest of the portfolio. So it's under 6% from a criticized asset standpoint. Delinquencies are less than we see in the rest of the book. NPAs are less. So it is some of our strongest performing of the portfolio -- commercial portfolio.

是的，所以我們減少了大約 29%，你是對的。考慮到傑米早些時候談到的跳水，我們今年迄今將該投資組合減少了約 7%，我預計這個數字從現在到年底可能會繼續下降。我們的 SNC 投資組合在每個指標上都比其他投資組合表現更好。因此，從受批評的資產角度來看，這一比例還不到 6%。拖欠率比我們在本書的其餘部分中看到的要少。 NPA 較少。因此，這是我們表現最強勁的投資組合之一—商業投資組合。

John, it's Jamie. The crit office loans were what I referenced that declined 180 basis points. Crits overall, were up just a little bit.

約翰，這是傑米。我提到的關鍵辦公室貸款下降了 180 個基點。整體暴擊率略有上升。

And your next question comes from the line of Manan Gosalia from Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Manan Gosalia。

I wanted to follow up on the RWA diet and the trajectory of rates. I guess does that move into 10-year impact how you manage that. So from here, we get the 10-year moving up 1% or down 1%. Does that impact how you will manage loans and as we look into next year, what would cause you to maybe lean into loan growth? And what would cause you to peel back? Is it just the outlook on credit, what you're seeing there? Or could the rate outlook impact that as well?

我想追蹤 RWA 飲食和利率軌跡。我想這會影響你的管理方式 10 年嗎？因此，從這裡開始，我們得到 10 年期上漲 1% 或下跌 1% 的結果。這是否會影響您管理貸款的方式？當我們展望明年時，什麼會導致您傾向於貸款成長？什麼會導致你退縮？您所看到的只是信貸前景嗎？或者利率前景也會影響這一點嗎？

Yes, it's Bryan. I would tell you that the outlook on rates has a modest impact on how we think of loans, but it's more about just composition and more in consumer where we may see some additional opportunity or -- and relative asset classes, you might feel a little bit better about some of the spreads in auto. You're going to see almost no mortgage production in a higher rate environment, obviously. And that's probably the biggest implication just given that our commercial portfolio is primarily floating rate, doesn't really have a big impact from a floating rate portfolio perspective. And it really for us comes down to overall macro, how we feel about what the credit outlook is going to be and whether or not we're earning adequate returns on the capital we're deploying.

是的，是布萊恩。我想告訴你，利率前景對我們如何看待貸款的影響不大，但更多的是關於構成，更多的是消費者，我們可能會看到一些額外的機會或相對資產類別，你可能會覺得有點汽車方面的一些價差好一些。顯然，在利率較高的環境下，你幾乎不會看到抵押貸款的產生。鑑於我們的商業投資組合主要是浮動利率，這可能是最大的影響，從浮動利率投資組合的角度來看，並沒有真正產生很大的影響。對我們來說，這實際上取決於整體宏觀，我們對信貸前景的看法，以及我們是否從部署的資本中獲得足夠的回報。

Got it. And then just from a cash perspective, it seems like the build was a little bit more than you guided to before? I think you had said about $15 billion or so in cash is what you were targeting before. I think your target has now moved to $20 billion. What's driving the change? Is it the volatility in rates? Is it just preparation for LCR? Or is it also just that you can get 5.5% on cash, then makes more sense to hold cash over securities?

知道了。然後，僅從現金角度來看，這個構建似乎比您之前指導的要多一點？我想你之前說過大約150億美元左右的現金是你之前的目標。我認為你們的目標現在已經達到 200 億美元。是什麼推動了這項改變？是利率波動嗎？只是為LCR做準備嗎？還是說你可以透過現金獲得 5.5% 的利率，那麼持有現金比持有證券更有意義？

It was mostly the fact that deposit growth outpaced expectations. And in this environment, we want to hold excess cash as opposed to doing anything, adding it to the investment portfolio. We certainly view cash as an asset allocation at these rates, as you referenced.

這主要是因為存款成長超出了預期。在這種環境下，我們希望持有多餘的現金，而不是採取任何行動，將其添加到投資組合中。正如您所提到的，我們當然將現金視為以這些利率進行的資產配置。

So it sounds like at some point, you'd be able to bring that $20 billion down. It might not be in the next 6 months or so. But as rate volatility improves, you might be able to bring that down?

所以聽起來，在某個時候，你將能夠減少這 200 億美元。未來 6 個月左右可能不會。但隨著利率波動性的改善，你也許能夠降低利率波動性？

Yes, I would say that our balance sheet is elevated due to a couple of reasons. One, the unrealized losses, whether you have an AFS or HTM, you do have to fund those losses in your liquidity buffers. And so should those losses come down, that certainly frees up cash to shrink the sheet or over time as our non-HQLA allocation matures, we will reinvest that in shorter duration level 1s and also allow us to maintain an LCR above 100%, while also shrinking the sheet. It's just -- both of those things are going to be measured more in years than in quarters in terms of the cash coming down.

是的，我想說，由於幾個原因，我們的資產負債表有所上升。第一，未實現的損失，無論您有 AFS 還是 HTM，您都必須在流動性緩衝中為這些損失提供資金。因此，如果這些損失下降，這肯定會釋放現金以縮小負債表，或者隨著時間的推移，隨著我們的非HQLA 分配成熟，我們將在較短期限的1 級中進行再投資，並允許我們將LCR 維持在100% 以上，同時也收縮板材。只是 - 就現金下降而言，這兩件事都將更多地以年為單位來衡量，而不是以季度為單位。

So just as a clarification then, does that make you more asset sensitive, all things equal now versus, say, last year?

那麼，澄清一下，現在與去年相比，在所有條件相同的情況下，這是否會讓您對資產更加敏感？

We're pretty neutral right now, how that lines up versus last year, probably a little asset sensitive a year ago, whereas today, we're neutral to at least in the disclosure showing liability sensitive.

我們現在相當中立，與去年相比，一年前可能對資產有點敏感，而今天，我們至少在披露中顯示對負債敏感是中立的。

And your last question comes from the line of Christopher Marinac from Janney Montgomery Scott.

你的最後一個問題來自詹尼·蒙哥馬利·斯科特的克里斯多福·馬裡納克。

I know you mentioned a little bit about credit in previous questions. But generally speaking, is the criticized and classified number is going to be within a certain band in the next several quarters? Or do you see them rising more than that?

我知道您在先前的問題中提到了一些關於信用的問題。但總體而言，未來幾季受到批評和保密的數字是否會在一定範圍內？或者您認為它們的漲幅會超過這個數字嗎？

Yes, I would say steady based on what we're seeing now from the delinquency and NPA, all the above and our ongoing portfolio, in the last 12 months, we have re-rated 95-plus percent of the portfolio. So based on all of that underwriting or re-underwriting, if you will, I'm expecting steady.

是的，根據我們現在從拖欠和不良資產、所有上述內容以及我們正在進行的投資組合中看到的情況，我想說的是穩定，在過去12 個月中，我們重新評估了95% 以上的投資組合。因此，基於所有承銷或再承銷，如果你願意的話，我預計會穩定。

And if it went higher than you think that would obviously drive more provisions and obviously more reserve build next year, just all things being equal. Is that fair?

如果它比你想像的要高，那麼在所有條件相同的情況下，明年顯然會推動更多的準備金和儲備建設。這樣公平嗎？

Sure. Yes.

當然。是的。

Sure.

當然。

And we have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Chris Doll for some final closing remarks.

我們的問答環節已經結束。現在，我將把電話轉回給克里斯多爾（Chris Doll），讓其做最後的總結發言。

Thanks, Rob, and thanks, everyone else, for your interest in Fifth Third. Please contact the IR department if you have any follow-up questions. Rob, you can now disconnect the line.

謝謝羅布，也謝謝其他人對第五第三的興趣。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯絡 IR 部門。羅布，你現在可以斷開線路了。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。