伊頓 (ETN) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Eaton fourth quarter earnings call. (Operator Instructions) And as a reminder, your conference is being recorded.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的支持，歡迎來到伊頓第四季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，您的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Yan Jin, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想把會議轉交給投資者關係高級副總裁嚴進先生。請繼續。

Good morning, everyone. Thank you all for joining us for Eaton's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earning Call. With me today are Craig Arnold, our Chairman and CEO; and Tom Okray, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Our agenda today includes opening remarks by Craig, then we will turn it over to Tom, who will highlight the company's performance in the fourth quarter. As we have done on our past calls, we will be taking questions at the end of Craig's closing commentary. The press release and the presentation we'll go through today have been posted on our website.

大家，早安。感謝大家參加伊頓 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。今天和我在一起的是我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Craig Arnold；執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Tom Okray。我們今天的議程包括 Craig 的開場白，然後我們將把它交給 Tom，他將重點介紹公司在第四季度的業績。正如我們在過去的電話會議上所做的那樣，我們將在克雷格的閉幕評論結束時回答問題。我們今天將通過的新聞稿和演示文稿已發佈在我們的網站上。

This presentation includes adjusted earnings per share, adjusted free cash flow and other non-GAAP measures. They're reconciled in the appendix. A webcast of this call is accessible on our website and will be available for replay.

本報告包括調整後的每股收益、調整後的自由現金流和其他非 GAAP 指標。它們在附錄中得到了協調。可以在我們的網站上訪問此電話會議的網絡廣播，並且可以重播。

I would like to remind you that our comments today will include statements related to the expected future results of the company and are therefore forward-looking statements. Our actual results may differ materially from our forecasted projections due to a wide range of risks and uncertainties that are described in our earning release and the presentation.

我想提醒您，我們今天的評論將包括與公司預期未來業績相關的陳述，因此屬於前瞻性陳述。由於我們的收益發布和演示文稿中描述的各種風險和不確定性，我們的實際結果可能與我們的預測存在重大差異。

With that, I will turn it over to Craig.

有了這個，我會把它交給克雷格。

Thanks, Yan. We'll begin with the highlights of the quarter on Page 3. And I'll start by noting that we again delivered very strong results in the quarter and record performance for the year. We generated adjusted EPS of $2.06 for the quarter and $7.57 for the year, both all-time records in each period.

謝謝，嚴。我們將從第 3 頁的本季度亮點開始。首先我要指出，我們在本季度再次取得了非常強勁的業績，並創下了今年的業績記錄。本季度調整後每股收益為 2.06 美元，全年調整後每股收益為 7.57 美元，均創歷史新高。

Our Q4 adjusted EPS was up 20% from prior year. Our sales were $5.4 billion, up 15% organically and for the second quarter in a row with particular strength in utility, industrial, commercial institution, data center markets for electrical and commercial aerospace, vehicle and eMobility markets on the industrial side.

我們第四季度調整後的每股收益比去年同期增長了 20%。我們的銷售額為 54 億美元，有機增長 15%，並且連續第二個季度增長，尤其是在公用事業、工業、商業機構、電氣和商業航空數據中心市場、工業方面的汽車和 eMobility 市場。

And we continue to post strong margins. Q4 margins of 20.8% were up 150 basis points from prior year, near the high end of our guidance range. And incremental margins were 33% in the quarter. For the full year, we delivered record segment margins of 20.2%, up 130 basis points from prior year.

我們繼續保持強勁的利潤率。第 4 季度利潤率為 20.8%，比去年同期增長 150 個基點，接近我們指導範圍的高端。本季度的增量利潤率為 33%。全年，我們實現了創紀錄的 20.2% 的分部利潤率，比上年增長 130 個基點。

And as noted here, orders continue to remain very strong. On a rolling 12-month basis, Electrical orders were up 25% and Aerospace orders increased 24%, which led, quite frankly, to record backlogs as well, up 68% in Electrical and up 21% in Aerospace.

正如此處所指出的，訂單繼續保持強勁勢頭。在連續 12 個月的基礎上，電氣訂單增長了 25%，航空航天訂單增長了 24%，坦率地說，這導致積壓訂單也創下歷史新高，電氣訂單增長 68%，航空航天訂單增長 21%。

Now lastly, in what was an otherwise challenging year, we generated record free cash flow in the quarter with adjusted free cash flow up 41%. And our free cash flow as a percentage of sales was 18.1% in the quarter.

最後，在本來充滿挑戰的一年裡，我們在本季度產生了創紀錄的自由現金流，調整後的自由現金流增長了 41%。本季度我們的自由現金流佔銷售額的百分比為 18.1%。

While improved cash flow in the second half of the year, it wasn't enough to really achieve the full year cash flow targets. As we indicated, we continue to prioritize supporting higher organic growth, winning new orders and protecting our customers, which all contributed to higher levels of working capital. But we still have work to do and with a focus on those areas that don't impact revenue growth.

雖然下半年現金流有所改善，但仍不足以真正實現全年現金流目標。正如我們所指出的，我們繼續優先支持更高的有機增長、贏得新訂單和保護我們的客戶，這些都有助於提高營運資金水平。但我們仍有工作要做，重點放在那些不影響收入增長的領域。

On Page 4, I summarize our performance highlights for last year. Overall, I'd say, in a challenging operating environment, our team delivered strong financial results. And as noted here, we exceeded three of our four key financial metrics.

在第 4 頁，我總結了我們去年的業績亮點。總的來說，我想說，在充滿挑戰的經營環境中，我們的團隊取得了強勁的財務業績。正如此處所述，我們超過了四個關鍵財務指標中的三個。

First, for organic revenue, we posted 13% growth, which was actually more than 60% above our original guidance at the midpoint. Throughout '22, we raised our organic revenue growth in all segments, and the team delivered on the organic growth expectations that we set. It's worth noting that our largest business, Electrical Americas, delivered 16% organic growth, 2x the midpoint of our original guidance.

首先，對於有機收入，我們公佈了 13% 的增長，實際上比我們最初的中點指導高出 60% 以上。在整個 22 年期間，我們提高了所有部門的有機收入增長，並且團隊實現了我們設定的有機增長預期。值得注意的是，我們最大的業務 Electrical Americas 實現了 16% 的有機增長，是我們最初指引中點的 2 倍。

Second, I'd note that we continue to demonstrate our ability to drive profitable growth with record margins of 20.2% in 2022, which was 10 basis points above our original guidance at the midpoint.

其次，我要指出的是，我們將繼續展示我們推動盈利增長的能力，2022 年的利潤率將達到創紀錄的 20.2%，比我們最初的中點指引高出 10 個基點。

Third, adjusted EPS of $7.57 was $0.07 higher than the midpoint of our original guidance. And I'd note that we fully offset the impact of some $500 million of unfavorable currency or roughly $0.20 a share.

第三，調整後每股收益 7.57 美元，比我們最初指引的中點高出 0.07 美元。我要指出的是，我們完全抵消了約 5 億美元的不利貨幣或每股約 0.20 美元的影響。

Lastly, I'd note that we did miss our free cash flow guidance for the year. Most of this miss went into working capital to support higher levels of sales and orders and the record backlogs. But I'd say here, once again, I know we can do better. As you might expect, supply chain disruptions and our decision to prioritize protecting customers with higher inventory played a major role in this inventory growth over the year.

最後，我要指出的是，我們確實錯過了今年的自由現金流量指導。大部分損失都投入了營運資金，以支持更高水平的銷售和訂單以及創紀錄的積壓訂單。但我要在這裡再說一次，我知道我們可以做得更好。正如您所預料的那樣，供應鏈中斷和我們決定優先保護庫存較高的客戶在這一年的庫存增長中發揮了重要作用。

But overall, I'd say it was a good year despite a year filled with inflation, labor shortages, supply chain disruptions and FX headwinds, and the team delivered record financial results and we go into 2023 with positive momentum.

但總的來說，儘管這一年充斥著通貨膨脹、勞動力短缺、供應鏈中斷和外匯逆風，但我想說這是一個好年頭，團隊實現了創紀錄的財務業績，我們將以積極的勢頭進入 2023 年。

So turning to Page 5. I hope at this point, you would agree that 2022 wasn't an exceptional year but just another year of delivering what we promised. And that it reflects the fundamental changes that we've made to the company over the last decade. We are a very different company today than we were 10 years ago. We've embraced the realities of a changing world and a necessity for us to change as well. We're now in attractive growth-oriented end markets, and we have a proven formula for how we run the company better through the Eaton Business System.

現在翻到第 5 頁。我希望在這一點上，您會同意 2022 年不是非凡的一年，而只是兌現我們承諾的又一年。它反映了我們在過去十年中對公司所做的根本改變。與 10 年前相比，我們今天是一家截然不同的公司。我們已經接受了不斷變化的世界的現實，也接受了我們改變的必要性。我們現在處於有吸引力的以增長為導向的終端市場，並且我們有一個行之有效的公式來說明我們如何通過伊頓業務系統更好地運營公司。

With this transformation, we've become a stronger company that has delivered higher growth, higher margins and better earnings consistency. And we continue to be a good steward of your capital. The end result is the new Eaton where some 90% of our profits now come from Electrical and Aerospace businesses. But once again, when I'm done, we'll continue to apply our operational model, our strategic framework and our potential [clinic] criteria, and we'd expect to continue to maximize value to all of our stakeholders.

通過這種轉型，我們已經成為一家更強大的公司，實現了更高的增長、更高的利潤率和更好的盈利一致性。我們將繼續成為您資本的好管家。最終結果是新的伊頓，我們現在約 90% 的利潤來自電氣和航空航天業務。但再一次，當我完成後，我們將繼續應用我們的運營模式、我們的戰略框架和我們潛在的[診所]標準，我們希望繼續為所有利益相關者實現價值最大化。

And as you can see on Page 6, what this transformation has delivered to our shareholders. As you would expect, our strong results have translated into very strong financial results. And for the sake of comparison, we charted total shareholder returns for 3, 5 and 7 years. And we've compared our results with the S&P 500, the medium of our peer group and the XLI Industrial Index. And in every case, Eaton has significantly outperformed our benchmarks. And as I'll explain in the next few slides, we do believe our best days are still in front of us.

正如您在第 6 頁所見，這種轉變為我們的股東帶來了什麼。如您所料，我們強勁的業績已轉化為非常強勁的財務業績。為了進行比較，我們繪製了 3 年、5 年和 7 年的股東總回報率圖表。我們將我們的結果與標準普爾 500 指數、我們同行組的中間值和 XLI 工業指數進行了比較。在每種情況下，伊頓的表現都明顯優於我們的基準。正如我將在接下來的幾張幻燈片中解釋的那樣，我們確實相信我們最好的日子仍然在我們面前。

Turning to Page 7. Our transformation into a global intelligent power management company has positioned Eaton at the center of some of -- what we think are some of the most important trends that we'll see in our lifetime. The most significant being climate change and all the downstream implications that it brings. As we all know, climate change is driving the need to transition from fossil fuels to renewables, and increased regulations are driving the demand for new solutions. These solutions will require tremendous investments in renewables and grid infrastructure for both new and existing buildings.

翻到第 7 頁。我們向全球智能電源管理公司的轉型使伊頓處於某些我們認為是我們一生中將看到的最重要趨勢的中心。最重要的是氣候變化及其帶來的所有下游影響。眾所周知，氣候變化正在推動從化石燃料向可再生能源過渡的需求，而越來越多的法規正在推動對新解決方案的需求。這些解決方案將需要對新建築和現有建築的可再生能源和電網基礎設施進行大量投資。

This trend is also closely coupled to need to electrify the economy. Cars, trucks, planes, buildings are all requiring more electrical content. And as we move away from fossil fuels, this allows us to take advantage of renewables. And digitalization is providing us access to data and insights that are allowing us to be more connected, more productive and more efficient than ever.

這種趨勢也與經濟電氣化的需要密切相關。汽車、卡車、飛機、建築物都需要更多的電氣內容。隨著我們遠離化石燃料，這使我們能夠利用可再生能源。數字化為我們提供了訪問數據和洞察力的途徑，使我們比以往任何時候都更緊密、更高效。

It's also, by the way, creating a need for more data centers, an important end market for Eaton. Additive to these trends, we're also on the front end of an aerospace recovery cycle that will drive growth in both our commercial and military markets. I don't know about you, but I can tell you, I don't -- I can't think of a company with a better set of market dynamics than Eaton. And while we're not ready to change our long-term growth goals, I'd be surprised if we didn't exceed our previously announced targets of 5% to 8% annual growth.

順便說一句，這也創造了對更多數據中心的需求，這是伊頓的一個重要終端市場。除了這些趨勢之外，我們還處於航空航天復蘇週期的前端，這將推動我們的商業和軍事市場的增長。我不了解你，但我可以告訴你，我不——我想不出有一家公司比伊頓擁有更好的市場動態。雖然我們還沒有準備好改變我們的長期增長目標，但如果我們沒有超過我們之前宣布的 5% 到 8% 的年增長率目標，我會感到驚訝。

Next, on Page 8, we highlight how these megatrends are supported by unprecedented government stimulus spending really around the world. In fact, these programs will have a direct impact on the growth rate of more than half of our end markets. And in the U.S. alone, the Infrastructure Act from 2021 and the Inflation Reduction Act from 2022 will fund some $450 billion of grid modernization and other climate-related programs. And of particular importance to Eaton is the $88 billion that are set aside for power grid updates and EV charging networks and incentives.

接下來，在第 8 頁，我們強調了這些大趨勢是如何得到世界各地前所未有的政府刺激支出的支持的。事實上，這些計劃將對我們一半以上的終端市場的增長率產生直接影響。僅在美國，2021 年的基礎設施法案和 2022 年的通貨膨脹減少法案將為大約 4500 億美元的電網現代化和其他氣候相關項目提供資金。對伊頓來說特別重要的是為電網更新和電動汽車充電網絡和激勵措施預留的 880 億美元。

In Europe, the EU recovery plan recovers -- provides, excuse me, $244 billion of green energy transition, which member states are now working on implementing. And in China, the government has set clear goals to lower carbon emissions. They've laid out plans to strengthen their grid by 2025, including investments in more wind and solar.

在歐洲，歐盟復甦計劃正在復蘇——對不起，提供了 2440 億美元的綠色能源轉型，成員國目前正在努力實施。在中國，政府制定了明確的目標來降低碳排放。他們制定了到 2025 年加強電網的計劃，包括投資更多的風能和太陽能。

China also continues to lead the world in the adoption of electric vehicles. But even if you exclude China, we still estimate that between the U.S. and EU programs will expand Eaton's addressable market by some $11 billion to $14 billion over the next 5 years. And I'd say this is just another powerful tailwind that supports our confidence in the growth outlook of the company.

中國在採用電動汽車方面也繼續領先世界。但即使你排除中國，我們仍然估計美國和歐盟之間的計劃將在未來 5 年內將伊頓的潛在市場擴大約 110 億美元至 140 億美元。我想說這只是另一個強大的順風，支持我們對公司增長前景的信心。

Tom will pick it up here and take you through the numbers.

湯姆會在這裡接手並帶您了解這些數字。

Thanks, Craig. On Page 9, I'll begin with highlighting a few key points regarding our Q4 results. Revenue was up 12% with organic growth of 15%, partially offset by a 4% foreign exchange headwind and a 1% favorable net impact from acquisitions. This outcome illustrates our focus of prioritizing growth in our customers. With total revenue growth of 12%, we posted solid operating leverage. Operating profit grew 21% and adjusted EPS grew 20%.

謝謝，克雷格。在第 9 頁，我將首先強調有關我們第四季度業績的幾個要點。收入增長 12%，有機增長 15%，部分被 4% 的外匯逆風和 1% 的有利收購淨影響所抵消。這一結果說明了我們優先考慮客戶增長的重點。隨著總收入增長 12%，我們公佈了穩健的經營槓桿。營業利潤增長 21%，調整後每股收益增長 20%。

Further, excluding the $0.05 impact from foreign exchange, growth in adjusted EPS would have been 23%. All in, strong organic growth and margins enabled us to report all-time record adjusted earnings of $825 million and adjusted EPS of $2.06, which was above our guidance midpoint. Lastly, I'd like to note that we continue to raise the bar with our Q4 records for both segment operating margin and segment operating profit.

此外，排除 0.05 美元的外匯影響，調整後的每股收益增長將達到 23%。總而言之，強勁的有機增長和利潤率使我們能夠報告 8.25 億美元的歷史記錄調整後收益和 2.06 美元的調整後每股收益，高於我們的指導中點。最後，我想指出的是，我們繼續提高第四季度分部營業利潤率和分部營業利潤的記錄。

Moving on to the next chart, we summarized strong financial performance for our Electrical Americas business. For yet another quarter, we have set all-time records for sales, operating profit and margin. Further, we've also set all-time records for these metrics for the full year. Organic sales growth accelerated from 18% in Q3 to 20% in Q4 with robust growth in every end market and particular strength in utility, data center and commercial and institutional markets.

轉到下一張圖表，我們總結了我們電氣美洲業務的強勁財務業績。又一個季度，我們創造了銷售額、營業利潤和利潤率的歷史記錄。此外，我們還為這些指標創造了全年的歷史記錄。有機銷售增長從第三季度的 18% 加速到第四季度的 20%，每個終端市場都強勁增長，尤其是公用事業、數據中心以及商業和機構市場。

Operating margin of 23.7% was up 450 basis points versus prior year, benefiting from higher volumes. In addition, incremental margins were quite strong at 47%. We continue to manage price effectively to more than offset inflationary pressures. Further, it should be noted that Electrical Americas outperformed their original 2020 guidance by 100 basis points.

營業利潤率為 23.7%，比上年增長 450 個基點，這得益於銷量的增加。此外，增量利潤率相當強勁，達到 47%。我們繼續有效地管理價格，以抵消通脹壓力。此外，應該指出的是，Electrical Americas 的表現比其最初的 2020 年指導高出 100 個基點。

Orders in backlog continued to be very strong. On a rolling 12-month basis, orders were up 34%, which remains at a high level with strong growth across the board and particular strength in data center, utility and industrial markets. Backlog ended the year up 87% versus prior year and increased sequentially from Q3.

積壓訂單繼續非常強勁。在連續 12 個月的基礎上，訂單增長了 34%，仍處於高位，整體增長強勁，數據中心、公用事業和工業市場尤為強勁。積壓訂單與去年同期相比增長了 87%，並且從第三季度開始連續增加。

In addition to the robust trends and orders in backlog, our major project negotiations pipeline in Q4 was up nearly 100% versus prior year from especially strong growth in manufacturing, data center, industrial and utility end markets. Overall, Electrical Americas had a strong quarter to round out a very good year and continues to be well positioned as we start 2023.

除了積壓的強勁趨勢和訂單外，由於製造業、數據中心、工業和公用事業終端市場的強勁增長，我們在第四季度的主要項目談判渠道比去年同期增長了近 100%。總體而言，Electrical Americas 有一個強勁的季度，為非常好的一年畫上了圓滿的句號，並且在 2023 年開始之際繼續處於有利地位。

Moving to Page 11, we show results for our Electrical Global segment, which produced another strong quarter, including records for Q4 and full year records for sales, operating profit and margins. Organic growth was up 8%, which was entirely offset by headwinds from foreign exchange of 7% and divestiture of 1%.

轉到第 11 頁，我們展示了 Electrical Global 部門的業績，該部門又創造了一個強勁的季度，包括第四季度的記錄以及銷售、營業利潤和利潤率的全年記錄。有機增長 8%，完全被 7% 的外彙和 1% 的資產剝離帶來的逆風所抵消。

With respect to organic growth, we saw strength in utility, industrial and data center end markets. On a regional basis, we posted high single-digit organic growth in IEMEA and mid-single-digit organic growth in APAC. Operating margin of 18.7% was down 80 basis points versus prior year, primarily due to foreign exchange headwinds.

在有機增長方面，我們看到了公用事業、工業和數據中心終端市場的實力。在區域基礎上，我們在 IEMEA 實現了高個位數的有機增長，在亞太地區實現了中等個位數的有機增長。營業利潤率為 18.7%，較上年下降 80 個基點，主要原因是外匯逆風。

We continue to see good order intake. Orders were up 11% on a rolling 12-month basis with strength in data center and commercial and institutional markets. Backlog growth of 17% also remains strong.

我們繼續看到良好的訂單攝入量。數據中心以及商業和機構市場的強勁訂單在 12 個月的滾動基礎上增長了 11%。 17% 的積壓增長也保持強勁。

Before moving to our industrial businesses, I'd like to briefly recap the combined Electrical segments. For Q4, we posted organic growth of 15%, incremental margins of 44% and operating margin of 21.8%, which was 250 basis points of year-over-year margin improvement. For the full year, our Electrical segments grew 15% organically, generated 33% incremental margin, increased margin 140 basis points, posted 25% rolling 12 months order growth and increased backlog 68%. We are confident that we're well positioned for continued growth with strong margins in our overall Electrical business.

在轉向我們的工業業務之前，我想簡要回顧一下合併後的電氣部門。對於第四季度，我們公佈了 15% 的有機增長，44% 的增量利潤率和 21.8% 的營業利潤率，即利潤率同比提高 250 個基點。全年，我們的電氣部門有機增長 15%，產生 33% 的增量利潤率，利潤率增加 140 個基點，12 個月訂單滾動增長 25%，積壓訂單增加 68%。我們相信，我們已做好充分準備，在整體電氣業務中保持強勁的利潤率，從而實現持續增長。

The next chart recaps our Aerospace segment. We posted all-time record sales and operating profit for both the quarter and on a full year basis. Organic growth accelerated to 11% with a 4% headwind from foreign exchange. This growth was driven by strength in commercial markets with commercial aftermarket up 35% and commercial OEM up more than 20%.

下一張圖表回顧了我們的航空航天部門。我們公佈了本季度和全年的銷售額和營業利潤均創歷史新高。有機增長加速至 11%，外匯逆風 4%。這一增長是由商業市場的強勁推動的，商業售後市場增長了 35%，商業 OEM 增長了 20% 以上。

Relative to profit, operating margin was strong at 24.5%. And it's worth noting that Aerospace outperformed their original 2020 guidance by 100 basis points. Order growth and backlog are very encouraging. On a rolling 12-month basis, order acceleration continued, up 24% compared to 22% in Q3 and 19% in Q2 with strength across all end markets.

相對於利潤，營業利潤率高達 24.5%。值得注意的是，航空航天公司的表現比他們最初的 2020 年指導高出 100 個基點。訂單增長和積壓非常令人鼓舞。在連續 12 個月的基礎上，訂單繼續加速增長，與第三季度的 22% 和第二季度的 19% 相比增長了 24%，所有終端市場都表現強勁。

Similar to Q3, we saw especially strong growth in military OEM orders, up 80% in the quarter, which positions us well for growth in 2023 and confirms our expectations for increased defense spending, including breakout performance in 2024. Year-over-year backlog increased from 17% in Q3 to up 21% in Q4.

與第三季度類似，我們看到軍事 OEM 訂單增長特別強勁，本季度增長了 80%，這為我們 2023 年的增長做好了準備，並證實了我們對增加國防開支的預期，包括 2024 年的突破性表現。從第三季度的 17% 增加到第四季度的 21%。

Moving on to our Vehicle segment on Page 13. Vehicle had strong revenue growth in the second half of the year. In Q4, revenue was up 16% with 18% organic growth and 2% unfavorable foreign exchange. This coming off 19% organic growth in Q3. We saw growth across all markets with particular strength in North America and South America light vehicle. We also saw double-digit growth in APAC.

轉到第 13 頁的車輛部門。車輛在今年下半年的收入增長強勁。第四季度，收入增長 16%，有機增長 18%，不利外匯佔 2%。這在第三季度實現了 19% 的有機增長。我們看到了所有市場的增長，尤其是北美和南美的輕型汽車市場。我們在亞太地區也看到了兩位數的增長。

Operating margins came in at 15.2% with unfavorability to prior year, primarily due to manufacturing inefficiencies. As expected, we were able to completely offset the impact of inflation with pricing in Q4. We also secured wins in new and sustainable technologies, such as EV gearing and transmissions, with a large and growing opportunity pipeline.

營業利潤率為 15.2%，不及上年，主要原因是製造效率低下。正如預期的那樣，我們能夠通過第四季度的定價完全抵消通貨膨脹的影響。我們還在電動汽車傳動裝置和變速箱等新技術和可持續技術方面取得了成功，並擁有大量且不斷增長的機會渠道。

On Page 14, we show results for our eMobility business. We generated very strong growth in the quarter. Revenue was up 58%, including 17% from organic growth and 44% from the acquisition of Royal Power, partially offset by 3% negative foreign exchange. Margin improved 780 basis points versus prior year driven by higher volumes and the impact from Royal Power.

在第 14 頁，我們展示了我們的 eMobility 業務的結果。我們在本季度實現了非常強勁的增長。收入增長了 58%，其中 17% 來自有機增長，44% 來自收購 Royal Power，部分被 3% 的負外匯抵消。利潤率較上年提高 780 個基點，這得益於銷量增加和皇家權力的影響。

We remain encouraged by the growth prospects of the eMobility segment. Since 2018, we've won $1.4 billion of mature year revenues in this business, including a recent $400 million win for power protection and distribution units with a European customer. This is a major new program win in both U.S. and European markets with production starting in 2024. This win demonstrates Eaton's ability to leverage our capabilities across our entire portfolio, including core technology in both electrical and industrial businesses.

我們仍然對電動汽車領域的增長前景感到鼓舞。自 2018 年以來，我們在該業務中贏得了 14 億美元的成熟年度收入，包括最近與歐洲客戶的電力保護和配電裝置贏得的 4 億美元。這是在美國和歐洲市場贏得的一項重大新項目，將於 2024 年開始生產。這一勝利表明伊頓有能力在我們的整個產品組合中利用我們的能力，包括電氣和工業業務的核心技術。

We partnered with our customer to electrify their mobile platform with solutions, including Breaktor and Bussmann fuses. We also leverage our extensive vehicle expertise and added content from our Royal Power acquisition. Overall, we continue to make progress toward our long-term goal to create a $2 billion to $4 billion business with 15% margins by 2030. We are now on track to exceed our expectation to deliver $1.2 billion of revenue and 11% margin by 2025.

我們與客戶合作，通過 Breaktor 和 Bussmann 保險絲等解決方案為他們的移動平台供電。我們還利用我們廣泛的車輛專業知識和我們收購 Royal Power 的附加內容。總體而言，我們繼續朝著我們的長期目標取得進展，即到 2030 年創造 20 億至 40 億美元的業務，利潤率達到 15%。我們現在有望超過我們的預期，即到 2025 年實現 12 億美元的收入和 11% 的利潤率.

Moving to Page 15. I'm going to unpack a theme that Craig mentioned at the top of the call related to our strategic investments in working capital to support strong orders and backlog, which enables accelerated organic growth. Overall, in spite of supporting surging orders and backlog, we are driving working capital improvements.

轉到第 15 頁。我將解開克雷格在電話會議頂部提到的一個主題，該主題與我們對營運資金的戰略投資有關，以支持強勁的訂單和積壓訂單，從而實現加速的有機增長。總體而言，儘管支持激增的訂單和積壓訂單，但我們仍在推動營運資金的改善。

To illustrate the trend, I'll provide a couple of examples. Net working capital to orders and inventory as a percentage of backlog. Focusing on the left side of the chart, the average value of our Electrical and Aerospace quarterly orders in 2022 was more than 20% higher than 2021 and 33% more than 2019. However, to support these increasing orders, we have only slightly increased the absolute value of our working capital. The result is shown in the graph on the left side of the page. Our ratio of net working capital at year-end to trailing 12-month orders has stepped down significantly from 2019 to 2022.

為了說明這一趨勢，我將提供幾個例子。訂單和庫存的淨營運資金佔積壓訂單的百分比。關注圖表左側，我們 2022 年電氣和航空航天季度訂單的平均值比 2021 年高出 20% 以上，比 2019 年高出 33%。但是，為了支持這些不斷增長的訂單，我們僅略微增加了我們營運資金的絕對值。結果顯示在頁面左側的圖表中。從 2019 年到 2022 年，我們年末淨營運資金與過去 12 個月訂單的比率已大幅下降。

Moving to the right side of the chart. Another way to look at working capital efficiency is comparing backlog growth to inventory growth. At the end of 2022, our Electrical and Aerospace backlog reached approximately $11 billion, which is up almost 160% since the end of 2019. However, to support this much larger backlog, inventory for our Electrical and Aerospace businesses has only increased by 38% since 2019.

移動到圖表的右側。另一種查看營運資本效率的方法是比較積壓增長與庫存增長。到 2022 年底，我們的電氣和航空航天積壓訂單達到約 110 億美元，自 2019 年底以來增長了近 160%。但是，為了支持這一更大的積壓訂單，我們電氣和航空航天業務的庫存僅增加了 38%自 2019 年以來。

The graph on the right side of the slide highlights the significant improvement since 2019. Our inventory as a percentage of backlog has been roughly cut in half from the end of 2019 to the end of 2022. We are supporting a much larger backlog with a smaller percentage of inventory.

幻燈片右側的圖表突出顯示了自 2019 年以來的顯著改善。從 2019 年底到 2022 年底，我們的庫存佔積壓訂單的百分比大致減少了一半。我們支持更大的積壓訂單和更小的積壓訂單存貨的百分比。

In summary, we have prudently prioritized taking care of our customers and capturing growth, which has required investments in working capital and has impacted free cash flow metrics in the short term. That said, we are managing working capital more efficiently.

總而言之，我們謹慎地將照顧客戶和實現增長放在首位，這需要對營運資金進行投資，並在短期內影響了自由現金流量指標。也就是說，我們正在更有效地管理營運資金。

The 2023 guidance on Page 16 shows that we are well positioned for another strong year of financial performance. Our organic growth guidance for 2023 is a range of 7% to 9% with particular strength in Electrical Americas and Aerospace with organic growth rates of 8% to 10%. eMobility is also a standout with 35% organic growth guidance at the midpoint tied to the ramp of new programs. These organic growth rates correspond to our end-market growth assumptions that we provided on our Q3 earnings call and that Craig will update in a few slides.

第 16 頁上的 2023 年指南表明，我們已做好準備迎接又一個強勁的財務業績年度。我們對 2023 年的有機增長指導範圍為 7% 至 9%，尤其是電氣美洲和航空航天領域，有機增長率為 8% 至 10%。 eMobility 也很突出，在與新項目的增加相關的中間點有 35% 的有機增長指導。這些有機增長率符合我們在第三季度財報電話會議上提供的終端市場增長假設，克雷格將在幾張幻燈片中更新。

The end-market growth, combined with increased backlog, provides tremendous visibility and confidence in our 2023 outlook. For segment margins, our guidance range of 20.7% and 21.1% is a 70-basis points improvement at the midpoint from our 2022 all-time record margin of 20.2%. In addition to projecting strong organic growth for 2023, we're also growing margins and continue to invest in future organic growth.

終端市場的增長，加上積壓的增加，為我們 2023 年的前景提供了巨大的知名度和信心。對於細分市場利潤率，我們 20.7% 和 21.1% 的指導範圍比我們 2022 年創紀錄的 20.2% 的利潤率中點提高了 70 個基點。除了預測 2023 年強勁的有機增長外，我們還在提高利潤率並繼續投資於未來的有機增長。

Moving to Page 17. We have the balance of our guidance for 2023 and Q1. I'll touch on some highlights. For 2023, we are guiding adjusted EPS in the range of $8.04 to $8.44, which has a midpoint of $8.24 is 9% growth over 2022. We expect continued foreign exchange headwinds, which we estimate between $100 million and $200 million adverse. For operating cash flow, our guidance of $3.2 billion to $3.6 billion is a 34% increase at the midpoint over 2022. The key drivers here are a combination of higher earnings and improved working capital, particularly lower inventory levels as supply chains normalize.

轉到第 17 頁。我們平衡了 2023 年和第一季度的指導。我將介紹一些亮點。對於 2023 年，我們指導調整後的每股收益在 8.04 美元至 8.44 美元之間，中點為 8.24 美元，比 2022 年增長 9%。我們預計外匯逆風將持續存在，我們估計不利因素在 1 億美元至 2 億美元之間。對於運營現金流，我們 32 億美元至 36 億美元的指導值比 2022 年的中點增長 34%。這裡的主要驅動因素是更高的收益和改善的營運資本，特別是隨著供應鏈正常化而降低的庫存水平。

While our plan includes significant improvement in free cash flow during 2023, I'll note that we anticipate due to higher interest expense and CapEx in Q1 as well as timing-related headwinds such as taxes that free cash flow in Q1 will be relatively flat year-over-year. For share repurchases, we anticipate a range of $300 million to $600 million.

雖然我們的計劃包括 2023 年自由現金流的顯著改善，但我會注意到，由於第一季度的利息支出和資本支出增加以及與時間相關的不利因素（例如稅收），我們預計第一季度的自由現金流將相對持平-超過一年。對於股票回購，我們預計範圍為 3 億至 6 億美元。

Moving to Q1. For Q1, we are guiding organic growth of 8% to 10%, segment margins between 19.5% and 19.9%, and adjusted EPS in a range of $1.72 to $1.82.

轉到第一季度。對於第一季度，我們指導有機增長 8% 到 10%，部門利潤率在 19.5% 到 19.9% 之間，調整後每股收益在 1.72 美元到 1.82 美元之間。

Now I'll hand it back to Craig to walk us through the market outlook and wrap up the presentation.

現在我將把它交還給克雷格，讓我們了解市場前景並結束演講。

Thanks, Tom. Turning to Page 18, we provide a look at our current market assumptions for the year. This chart has been updated from what we shared in our Q3 earnings call, but we really don't see any material changes here. I'll remind you that we do expect a mild recession in 2023. But given the secular growth trends that we've talked about, our strong orders and healthy backlog, we would expect to see growth in most of our end markets with six of our end markets representing some 70% of the company up nicely. And these markets are also, by the way, supported by a very strong negotiation pipeline.

謝謝，湯姆。翻到第 18 頁，我們介紹了我們當前對這一年的市場假設。這張圖表是根據我們在第三季度財報電話會議上分享的內容更新的，但我們真的沒有看到任何實質性變化。我會提醒您，我們確實預計 2023 年會出現溫和衰退。但鑑於我們已經談到的長期增長趨勢、我們強勁的訂單和健康的積壓訂單，我們預計我們的大多數終端市場將出現增長，其中六個我們的終端市場占公司約 70% 的份額增長良好。順便說一句，這些市場也得到了非常強大的談判渠道的支持。

Of note, we now expect even stronger growth within our commercial and institutional segment given the relatively strong orders growth in the quarter and the continued strength in Dodge nonresidential construction contracts. The only down market is expected to be residential, which only accounts for 8% of our revenue. In total, we're encouraged to report that 85% of our markets are expected to see positive growth in 2023.

值得注意的是，鑑於本季度相對強勁的訂單增長以及道奇非住宅建築合同的持續強勁，我們現在預計我們的商業和機構部門將實現更強勁的增長。唯一下滑的市場預計是住宅市場，它僅占我們收入的 8%。總的來說，我們很高興地報告說，我們 85% 的市場預計將在 2023 年實現正增長。

And lastly, let me close on Page 19 just with a few summary comments. First, I'd say our thesis for Eaton as a changed company has continued to pay even better than we expected. Second, the growth trends, the right investments have delivered better top line growth, and we continue to run the company better. We delivered 13% organic growth with record orders and backlog. And despite supply chain challenges, an inflationary environment and significant FX headwinds, 2022 was a year of record profits, record margins, record adjusted earnings and adjusted EPS.

最後，讓我以一些總結評論結束第 19 頁。首先，我要說的是，我們對伊頓作為一家改變後的公司的論點繼續支付比我們預期的還要好。其次，增長趨勢，正確的投資帶來了更好的收入增長，我們將繼續更好地經營公司。我們實現了 13% 的有機增長，訂單和積壓訂單均創歷史新高。儘管供應鏈面臨挑戰、通貨膨脹環境和巨大的外匯逆風，但 2022 年的利潤、利潤率、調整後收益和調整後每股收益都創下歷史新高。

And I'm particularly encouraged by our 20% increase in adjusted EPS growth in Q4, which I see as a positive indicator for 2023. So despite the macro concerns, we expect 2023 to be another very strong year. And the company is on track and likely ahead of schedule for delivering our 2025 goals for revenue, margins, free cash flow and adjusted EPS.

我對第四季度調整後的每股收益增長 20% 感到特別鼓舞，我認為這是 2023 年的一個積極指標。因此，儘管存在宏觀擔憂，但我們預計 2023 年將是又一個非常強勁的一年。公司正按計劃並可能提前實現我們 2025 年的收入、利潤率、自由現金流和調整後每股收益目標。

So I'll stop here and open things up for any questions that you may have.

所以我會在這裡停下來，就您可能有的任何問題展開討論。

Thanks, Craig. (Operator Instructions) Thanks in advance for your cooperation. With that, I will turn it over to the operator to give you guys the guidance.

謝謝，克雷格。 （操作員說明）提前感謝您的合作。有了這個，我會把它交給運營商給你們指導。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question is from the line of Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。

So still very strong trends in -- especially in Electrical Americas. I'm just curious, we are seeing a divergence, especially on backlog between Americas and Global. Is that primarily macro in your opinion? Or do you think there's more secular tailwinds hitting in the Americas with all the similar money coming through? And any details on the front log of projects in the Americas would be very helpful.

所以仍然非常強勁的趨勢 - 特別是在電氣美洲。我只是好奇，我們看到了分歧，尤其是在美洲和全球之間的積壓方面。您認為這主要是宏觀的嗎？還是您認為隨著所有類似的資金湧入，美洲會出現更多的長期順風？關於美洲項目前期日誌的任何詳細信息都會非常有幫助。

Yes. No, we're very pleased, obviously, with the growth that we're seeing in both our global business as well as in the Americas business, but the Americas business is clearly performing extremely well. And I think -- if you think about some of the things that we talked about, Nigel, whether it's this stimulus spending where the U.S. is really pumping fairly significant dollars into markets that are really important for us, you think about some of these large projects and let's call it, reshoring that's taking place in the U.S. market, that's certainly strengthening the U.S. business as well.

是的。不，顯然，我們對我們在全球業務和美洲業務中看到的增長感到非常高興，但美洲業務顯然表現得非常好。我認為——如果你想想我們談到的一些事情，奈傑爾，無論是美國真正向對我們真正重要的市場注入相當多的美元的刺激性支出，你想想其中的一些大項目，讓我們稱之為在美國市場上發生的回流，這當然也在加強美國業務。

So I do think there's a lot of macros today that are strong for the company across the board that are just, I'd say, intensified when you think about what's going on in the U.S. market right now. So the secular trends are everywhere. We talk about energy transition, electrification. It's taking place across the world. And I just think the U.S., because of this increased focus on infrastructure reindustrialization, is seeing an additional boost above some of the other regions of the world.

因此，我確實認為，當你考慮美國市場目前正在發生的事情時，我認為今天有很多宏觀因素對公司的整體影響很大。所以世俗的趨勢無處不在。我們談論能源轉型、電氣化。它正在世界各地發生。而且我只是認為美國，由於對基礎設施再工業化的日益關注，正在看到比世界其他一些地區更多的推動力。

Okay. I'm not sure if there's any particular projects you'd call out or when you call out on the front log. But my follow-up question is probably for Tom. The $70 million of corporate expenses in 2023. Maybe you could just break that out between true corporate's interest and pension.

好的。我不確定您是否會調用任何特定項目，或者您何時調用前端日誌。但我的後續問題可能是針對湯姆的。 2023 年 7000 萬美元的公司支出。也許你可以把它分成真正的公司利息和養老金。

Yes. Thanks, Nigel. Most of that is going to be in interest expense and pension with interest expense even being greater than pension. And I would caution that there's a lot of moving parts on both of those, what's going to happen to interest rate, what's going to happen to the shape of the yield curve, discount rates, those types of things. But as we're projecting it now, the headwinds are really related to interest expense and pension with interest expense being the dominant one.

是的。謝謝，奈傑爾。其中大部分將用於利息支出和養老金，利息支出甚至大於養老金。我要提醒的是，這兩個方面都有很多變化因素，利率會發生什麼，收益率曲線的形狀會發生什麼，貼現率，這些類型的事情。但正如我們現在預測的那樣，不利因素確實與利息支出和養老金有關，其中利息支出占主導地位。

And the next question is from the line of Josh Pokrzywinski from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Josh Pokrzywinski。

So Craig, you mentioned kind of planning for a mild recession and guidance. Can you maybe put that in the context of backlog conversion? And maybe specifically, I think data center and commercial construction, you're starting to hear a little bit more in the way of cyclical concerns. Obviously, the orders are so strong. But how would you think of how much backlog ideally you'd be converting, if any, this year in the context of that recession outlook?

所以克雷格，你提到了一種針對溫和衰退和指導的計劃。你能不能把它放在積壓轉換的背景下？也許具體來說，我認為數據中心和商業建設，你開始聽到更多關於週期性擔憂的信息。顯然，命令如此強烈。但是，在經濟衰退前景的背景下，您如何看待今年理想情況下要轉換多少積壓訂單（如果有）？

Yes. I appreciate the question, Josh. And we've obviously spent a lot of time internally trying to sort that one through ourselves. And I would tell you that orders have just stayed so strong in general. It's really tough to really put a finger on how much of this very large backlog that we'll be able to convert. It certainly will depend upon what happens during the course of 2023.

是的。我很欣賞這個問題，喬希。我們顯然在內部花了很多時間試圖通過我們自己來解決這個問題。我會告訴你，總的來說，訂單一直很強勁。很難真正確定我們能夠轉換多少這個非常大的積壓工作。這當然取決於 2023 年期間發生的情況。

And I can just tell you what's actually baked into our forecast for the year is relatively modest reductions in backlog, if at all. Because at this point, it looks like these markets, driven by the secular growth trends that we talked about, are going to stay stronger for even longer than what we anticipated.

我可以告訴你，我們今年的預測中實際包含的是相對溫和的積壓減少，如果有的話。因為在這一點上，看起來這些市場在我們談到的長期增長趨勢的推動下，將比我們預期的更長時間保持強勁。

And so at this point, we'll have to wait and see. But if we end up with perhaps a little bit of a respite here in terms of some of the order intake or some of the supply chain challenges, we'll be able to convert more, and that could be upside on the revenue side. But at this point, we're not anticipating that we're going to be burning a lot of backlogs.

所以在這一點上，我們將不得不拭目以待。但是，如果我們最終可能在一些訂單接收或一些供應鏈挑戰方面得到一點喘息，我們將能夠轉換更多，這可能對收入方面有好處。但在這一點上，我們並沒有預料到我們會燃燒大量積壓的工作。

Got it. That's helpful. Then just a follow-up. Really appreciate kind of the TAM expansion color that you gave from some of the stimulus. I know not a lot of folks have taken a stab at that. I remember from the Analyst Day correctly, I think you sized the TAM for Eaton before that -- in kind of the high $50s billion.

知道了。這很有幫助。然後只是一個跟進。非常感謝您從某些刺激中獲得的 TAM 擴展顏色。我知道沒有多少人嘗試過這一點。我記得在分析師日是正確的，我認為你在那之前為伊頓設定了 TAM 的規模——大約是 500 億美元。

Does this mean that we kind of take this extra $11 billion to $14 billion divided by 5, because it's over 5 years and you have sort of 4% uplift to growth like -- or is this an apples and oranges kind of discussion? Just any context how the TAM increase relates to kind of the growth uptick would be helpful.

這是否意味著我們將這額外的 110 億至 140 億美元除以 5，因為它已經超過 5 年，並且您有 4% 的增長提升——或者這是一種蘋果和橘子類的討論？只要 TAM 增加與某種增長上升有關的任何背景都會有所幫助。

I think your simple logic there is the right logic that based upon this stimulus spending, these are essentially incremental dollars that we would expect to be going into these end markets, which will increase the size of the TAM in our served market. And so I think your kind of high-level assumption is the right working assumption to have.

我認為你的簡單邏輯是正確的，基於這種刺激支出，這些本質上是我們期望進入這些終端市場的增量美元，這將增加我們服務市場中 TAM 的規模。所以我認為你的那種高級假設是正確的工作假設。

And obviously, there'll be lots of discussions around how it plays out and over what period of time do these investments play out. Is it 3 years, 5 years? I mean, what's the time frame? I think it will be the more difficult call to make, but it absolutely increases the size of the market.

顯然，圍繞它如何發揮作用以及這些投資將在多長時間內發揮作用進行了很多討論。是3年還是5年？我的意思是，時間範圍是多少？我認為這將是更難做出的決定，但它絕對會擴大市場規模。

Yes. And just to add a little bit more color on that, I mean going back to the prepared remarks, if you look at our major project U.S. pipeline, many of the end markets quarter-over-quarter are up over 100%. And that's also translating to order volume even higher than that. So we're just seeing some good tailwinds on these major projects.

是的。只是為了增加一點色彩，我的意思是回到準備好的評論，如果你看看我們在美國的主要項目管道，許多終端市場環比增長超過 100%。這也轉化為比這更高的訂單量。所以我們只是在這些主要項目上看到了一些好的順風。

Yes. Just to build on Tom's point, as I think everybody's aware, we obviously have sales and orders, but we also look at negotiations and our negotiation pipeline. And as Tom mentioned, the negotiation pipeline being up more than 100%. And I'd say that is supported by the other data point that I talked about, which is essentially nonresidential construction contracts, which are also up quite dramatically through, once again, the fourth quarter. So we continue to see very good strength in these underlying markets, especially in the Americas.

是的。正如我想每個人都知道的那樣，我想以湯姆的觀點為基礎，我們顯然有銷售和訂單，但我們也關注談判和我們的談判渠道。正如湯姆提到的，談判管道增加了 100% 以上。我要說的是，我談到的另一個數據點支持了這一點，這基本上是非住宅建築合同，在第四季度也再次大幅上升。因此，我們繼續看到這些基礎市場非常強勁，尤其是在美洲。

And the next question is from Andrew Obin from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Andrew Obin。

So the first question, I guess, we've been getting incoming calls on data centers. And just if you can talk as to how much visibility do you have where you are in terms of capacity for '23? Do you have any left? And the new one we're getting was all the focus on ChatGPT, right? Are you getting any inquiries sort of related to AI and more computing sort of required to do that? And if you have any conversations related today at the interest of that topic.

所以第一個問題，我想，我們一直在接到數據中心的來電。如果您能談談您在 23 年的容量方面有多少知名度？你還有嗎？而我們獲得的新產品都專注於 ChatGPT，對吧？您是否收到任何與 AI 相關的查詢，並且需要更多的計算來做到這一點？如果您今天有任何與該主題相關的對話。

Yes. We -- as you can imagine, we anticipated this question because we too are reading some of the conflicting headlines in terms of what's going on in the data center market. And then as we talked about, our data center business continues to be very strong. And what you talked about, Josh, in the context of AI and these other various technology platforms that continue to be rolled out. That's just, once again, generating the need for more data, more processing and ultimately more data centers.

是的。我們 - 正如您可以想像的那樣，我們預料到了這個問題，因為我們也在閱讀一些關於數據中心市場正在發生的事情的相互矛盾的頭條新聞。然後正如我們所說，我們的數據中心業務繼續非常強勁。 Josh，你所說的是在人工智能和其他不斷推出的各種技術平台的背景下。這只是再次產生了對更多數據、更多處理以及最終更多數據中心的需求。

And I know there's a little bit of a cause for some concern given what some of the hyperscale guys did with respect to their own outlook. But I can tell you that for us, the data center market continues to be very strong. And even the hyperscale guys are still talking about mid-teens kind of growth over the next 3 to 4 years. And so those are very strong numbers. And we haven't talked about autonomous driving and expansion of 5G. And every device that we make today and that is made by every company continues to get more intelligent, driving a greater need for data and processing.

而且我知道，考慮到一些超大規模人員對他們自己的前景所做的事情，有些擔憂是有原因的。但我可以告訴你，對我們來說，數據中心市場仍然非常強勁。甚至超大規模的人仍在談論未來 3 到 4 年的十幾歲左右的增長。所以這些都是非常強勁的數字。而且我們還沒有談到自動駕駛和5G的擴展。我們今天製造的每台設備以及每家公司製造的每台設備都在不斷變得更加智能，從而推動了對數據和處理的更大需求。

And so we think the data center market is going to be a great market for quite a number of years to come, and it's supported by our order intake and our negotiations. To your question specifically on capacity, at this point, we really don't have a lot of spare capacity. We're making investments to expand our capacity. But at this point, we have lots of visibility into the data center market, and it feels good.

因此，我們認為數據中心市場將在未來相當長一段時間內成為一個偉大的市場，並且我們的訂單接收和我們的談判支持它。對於你關於容量的問題，在這一點上，我們真的沒有很多空閒容量。我們正在投資以擴大我們的產能。但在這一點上，我們對數據中心市場有了很多了解，感覺很好。

Yes. I would also point out...

是的。我還要指出...

And just -- yes, sorry.

只是 - 是的，對不起。

Oops, sorry, Andrew. I would also point out that this isn't only an America's phenomenon. We're seeing strong order growth across the entire globe.

糟糕，對不起，安德魯。我還要指出，這不僅僅是美國的現象。我們看到全球訂單增長強勁。

And just a follow-up question. And at both stimulus, I think, related to IRA but also what's happening with LNG in Europe, what's the latest out of Crouse-Hinds? Because I think it is exposed to all these trends. And also have -- does Crouse-Hinds benefit from any decarbonization efforts, hydrogen, carbon sequestration? Just as I said, just maybe talk a little bit about what you're seeing in Crouse-Hinds.

只是一個後續問題。我認為，在這兩種刺激措施中，與 IRA 有關，但也與歐洲液化天然氣有關，Crouse-Hinds 的最新消息是什麼？因為我認為它受到所有這些趨勢的影響。還有——Crouse-Hinds 是否從任何脫碳工作、氫氣、碳封存中受益？就像我說的，也許可以談談你在 Crouse-Hinds 看到的東西。

Yes. Appreciate the question. The first thing I'll just maybe give the team a little bit of a news announcement that we've changed the name. What was formerly known as Crouse-Hinds and B-Line is now we're calling it our global energy infrastructure business, so GEIS. And so just if you hear us talk about GEIS, that's the formerly known Crouse-Hinds and B-Line business.

是的。感謝這個問題。首先，我可能會向團隊發布一些我們已經更改名稱的新聞公告。以前被稱為 Crouse-Hinds 和 B-Line 現在我們稱之為我們的全球能源基礎設施業務，所以 GEIS。因此，如果您聽到我們談論 GEIS，那就是以前眾所周知的 Crouse-Hinds 和 B-Line 業務。

And I'd say absolutely, I mean, as the name implies, anything that has to do with energy infrastructure is a real positive for our GEIS business. And we would expect that, that business continues to perform well as we continue to see investments in energy. And certainly, as we look at hydrogen and other new greener forms of energy, all of the infrastructure that's required to support those investments will be very positive for our GEIS business as well.

我絕對會說，我的意思是，顧名思義，與能源基礎設施有關的任何事情對我們的 GEIS 業務都是真正的積極影響。我們預計，隨著我們繼續看到對能源的投資，該業務將繼續表現良好。當然，當我們關注氫和其他新的綠色能源形式時，支持這些投資所需的所有基礎設施也將對我們的 GEIS 業務產生非常積極的影響。

Yes. I mean, for example, if you look at trailing 12-month orders in GEIS and utilities, they were close to 30%, very strong.

是的。我的意思是，例如，如果您查看 GEIS 和公用事業的過去 12 個月訂單，它們接近 30%，非常強勁。

The next question is from the line of Stephen Volkmann from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Stephen Volkmann。

Craig, maybe just start off, could you provide a little bit more color on what you're seeing in commercial and institutional that made you sort of bump that market outlook up?

克雷格，也許只是開始，你能否提供更多關於你在商業和機構中看到的讓你提升市場前景的顏色？

Yes. And I'd say, once again, the very minimum, we saw very strong order intake in Q4. But also, we talked a little bit what's going on generally in nonres construction. And we look at the commercial negotiate nonres commercial contracts, construction contracts, just really posting pretty significant numbers in the fourth quarter.

是的。我要再說一次，最低限度，我們在第四季度看到非常強勁的訂單量。而且，我們還談了一點非資源建設中的一般情況。我們看看商業談判非資源商業合同、建築合同，在第四季度確實發布了相當可觀的數字。

And so we thought that, that market would be positive. But given the activity level, our negotiations in that segment as well as what's going on more broadly in the industry and some of the macro data, it caused us to be even more positive on that market. And so it's, I'd say, a good news story. We'll wait and see how it plays out in total. But certainly, the data that we saw in the fourth quarter was definitely more positive than what we anticipated.

所以我們認為，那個市場會是積極的。但考慮到活動水平、我們在該領域的談判以及行業更廣泛的情況和一些宏觀數據，這使我們對該市場更加樂觀。所以，我想說，這是一個好消息。我們將拭目以待，看看它的整體效果如何。但可以肯定的是，我們在第四季度看到的數據肯定比我們預期的要積極。

Okay. Great. And then I know it's early for this question. But Tom, since you brought it up, I think you mentioned something about breakout performance in 2024. Not sure if that was sort of military aero-specific. But just can you expand on that a little bit?

好的。偉大的。然後我知道這個問題還為時過早。但是湯姆，既然你提出來了，我想你提到了一些關於 2024 年突破性能的事情。不確定那是否是軍事航空專用的。但是你能稍微擴展一下嗎？

Yes. No, it is a little early, but I walked into it and I mentioned it in the prepared remarks. We're just seeing significant order growth in military OEM. And we've been waiting to see that just given what's happening in the world. And now it's starting to come through in all of our order metrics, whether it's trailing 12 months or Q4 year-over-year or even sequentially, up very, very high numbers.

是的。不，有點早，但我走進去，我在準備好的評論中提到了它。我們剛剛看到軍事 OEM 的訂單顯著增長。鑑於世界上正在發生的事情，我們一直在等待看到這一點。現在它開始出現在我們所有的訂單指標中，無論是過去 12 個月還是第 4 季度同比，甚至連續增長非常非常高的數字。

In fact, our military OE orders for the last 12 months was up 45%-ish.

事實上，我們過去 12 個月的軍事 OE 訂單增長了 45% 左右。

Exactly and 80% in the quarter.

正好是本季度的 80%。

In the quarter. So really strong.

在這個季度。所以真的很強大。

Really strong, yes.

真的很強，是的。

And given the lead times in that business, it will certainly support the growth assumption that we have baked in for 2023. But we do expect that 2024 will be a really strong year.

考慮到該業務的交貨時間，它肯定會支持我們為 2023 年制定的增長假設。但我們確實預計 2024 年將是非常強勁的一年。

And it comes back to the way Craig started out the presentation of what these megatrends. And maybe we'll have pockets of weakness here and there, but the portfolio is so sound that -- we've also got the aero megatrend with pent-up demand. We've got military that's growing. We have pent-up demand with vehicles. So we're really not susceptible to any one small thing that's going to knock us down. It's a very robust portfolio.

這又回到了克雷格開始介紹這些大趨勢的方式。也許我們到處都會有一些弱點，但產品組合非常合理——我們也有被壓抑的需求的航空大趨勢。我們的軍隊正在壯大。我們對車輛有被壓抑的需求。所以我們真的不容易受到任何一件會擊倒我們的小事的影響。這是一個非常強大的投資組合。

The next question is from the line of Jeff Sprague from Vertical Research.

下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Jeff Sprague。

I was wondering if we could just drill into Global Electrical a little bit more, just the quarter itself and then the outlook. Could you possibly elaborate a little bit more on what happened in the margins in the quarter? And I guess the perspective of my question is, it was a pretty sizable sequential step-down in margins on similar revenues, and it looked like similar FX to me sequentially. Maybe I'm wrong there.

我想知道我們是否可以更深入地研究 Global Electrical，先是季度本身，然後是前景。您能否詳細說明本季度利潤率發生的情況？我想我的問題的觀點是，在類似收入的情況下，這是一個相當可觀的連續利潤率下降，而且對我來說，它看起來像連續的類似外匯。也許我在那裡錯了。

But is there something else going on with mix or some other factor in the margins in the quarter? And then I was wondering if you could also just address the top line outlook in Global. The 4% to 6% is somewhat moderating. Just maybe a little color on the underlying demand trends you're seeing there or if anything is going on in the channels.

但是，本季度的利潤率是否還有其他因素或其他因素？然後我想知道你是否也可以解決全球的頂線前景。 4% 到 6% 有點緩和。您在那裡看到的潛在需求趨勢或者渠道中是否正在發生任何事情，也許只是一點點顏色。

Yes. Thanks, Jeff. Let me start out with talking about the Americas margins. I mean the story is really when you look at it compared to Electrical...

是的。謝謝，傑夫。讓我先談談美洲的利潤率。我的意思是，當您將這個故事與 Electrical 相比時，它真的是……

Global margins. Global margins.

全球利潤率。全球利潤率。

Yes. No -- oh, yes. We have 20% in the Americas volume growth. We had 8% in Electrical Global. So there's the real disparity going on there. And if you look closer into Global as well, we had some transactional FX issue, not necessarily translational but transactional, where we still have dollar-denominated costs. And with the dollar weakening, that hurt us there. So that was part of also the compare and the hurting of the margins on Electrical Global.

是的。不——哦，是的。我們在美洲的銷量增長了 20%。我們在 Electrical Global 擁有 8% 的股份。所以那裡存在真正的差異。而且，如果您也仔細觀察全球，我們會遇到一些交易性外匯問題，不一定是平移問題，而是交易問題，我們仍然有以美元計價的成本。隨著美元走弱，這對我們造成了傷害。所以這也是比較和損害 Electrical Global 利潤率的一部分。

And on the growth side of the equation, I'd say that we're looking at kind of mid-single-digit growth in our Global business. And I'd say in the face of what we're saying today is likely typical recession, we think mid-single-digit growth is the right kind of place to kind of be thinking about that business.

在等式的增長方面，我想說我們正在尋找全球業務的中個位數增長。我要說的是，面對我們今天所說的可能是典型的衰退，我們認為中等個位數增長是考慮該業務的正確地點。

Now once again, if the world turns out to be a little happier than what we're anticipating and on the margin, I would say that I think we're all feeling a little better today about 2023 than we were maybe a month ago. And we have seen even in the European market, on a relative basis, some strengthening. Those numbers could be better. But at this point, given our current assumptions, we think mid-single-digit growth for our Global business is the right place to kind of be thinking about it.

現在再一次，如果這個世界比我們預期的要幸福一點，並且在邊緣，我會說我認為我們今天對 2023 年的感覺比一個月前要好一些。我們甚至在歐洲市場也看到，相對而言，有些走強。這些數字可能會更好。但在這一點上，鑑於我們目前的假設，我們認為我們全球業務的中個位數增長是考慮它的正確地方。

And the other one I would say just on the margin that could be slightly better than what we're currently thinking is what's happening today in China. Nobody anticipated COVID running through China as quickly as it did. It had an impact in Q4 for sure. Part of maybe the inefficiency challenges we had in Global was the fact that we had some unanticipated disruptions coming out of Asia, coming out of China, specifically around COVID. But at this juncture, they're through it, and they got through it much quicker than anyone imagined. And we think on the margin, China and Asia could be stronger than what we anticipated.

我想說的另一個可能比我們目前的想法稍微好一點的是今天在中國發生的事情。沒有人預料到 COVID 會像它那樣迅速地席捲中國。它肯定對第四季度產生了影響。我們在全球面臨的低效率挑戰的部分原因可能是我們在亞洲、中國遇到了一些意想不到的中斷，特別是在 COVID 周圍。但在這個關頭，他們挺過來了，而且他們挺過來的速度比任何人想像的都要快。我們認為，在邊際上，中國和亞洲可能比我們預期的更強大。

Right. Yes. Thanks for the assist, Craig. Yes, coming back to the margin question, in addition to transactional FX, Jeff, we also saw weakness in China opening up. So APAC was weaker than we had expected.

正確的。是的。謝謝你的幫助，克雷格。是的，回到保證金問題，除了交易外匯，傑夫，我們還看到了中國開放的疲軟。所以亞太地區比我們預期的要弱。

Great. And then just as a follow-up. Can you just -- sorry if you said it, I missed it. But I know you're not going to give us price. But when I look at the margin bridge for next year, what does that kind of assume for the price/cost gap there? I assume there is some lift. Maybe you could give us a little perspective on what you're expecting.

偉大的。然後作為後續行動。你能不能-- 對不起，如果你說了，我錯過了。但我知道你不會給我們價格。但是，當我查看明年的保證金橋時，對於那裡的價格/成本差距有何假設？我假設有一些提升。也許你可以給我們一些關於你期望的觀點。

Yes. We're not going to break it out specifically as per our policy. What I will say is that we expect to continue to effectively manage price/cost. It's something we really focus on, and we expect to manage it effectively.

是的。我們不會根據我們的政策專門將其分解。我要說的是，我們希望繼續有效地管理價格/成本。這是我們真正關注的事情，我們希望能夠有效地管理它。

And the only thing I would add to what Tom is that I would not anticipate it would be accretive to margins, right? So clearly, there's still inflation that we have in the business. We are more than offsetting inflation. But in terms of how it's impacting the margins in the business, I would not expect that it would be accretive to margins. That's really a function of what we're doing to drive improvements in efficiencies as well as the volume lift that we're getting from the company overall.

我唯一要補充的是，我不認為它會增加利潤，對吧？很明顯，我們的業務仍然存在通貨膨脹。我們不僅僅是在抵消通貨膨脹。但就它如何影響業務利潤率而言，我不認為它會增加利潤率。這實際上是我們為提高效率所做的工作以及我們從公司整體獲得的銷量提升的一個功能。

The next question is from the line of Nicole DeBlase from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase。

Maybe just starting with channel inventory levels, Craig. Have definitely heard some concern about distributors maybe having a little bit of excess inventory or inventory building. What are you guys seeing in your channels within Electrical?

也許只是從渠道庫存水平開始，克雷格。肯定聽說過一些關於分銷商可能有一點庫存過剩或庫存增加的擔憂。你們在 Electrical 的頻道中看到了什麼？

Yes. I'd say -- in aggregate, Nicole, I would say that we've not seen that nor have we heard that from our big channel partners in aggregate. Today, if you look at -- once again, if you think about our order intake, our growth in backlog and you throw that up against -- Tom did a great job of laying out what it's meant in the context of our own inventory. And while we're building inventory, we're actually increasing our efficiency as it relates to a forward view of revenue.

是的。我想說——總的來說，妮可，我想說我們沒有看到，也沒有從我們的大渠道合作夥伴那裡聽到過。今天，如果你再看看——再一次，如果你考慮我們的訂單接收量、我們積壓訂單的增長，然後你將其與此相提並論——湯姆在我們自己的庫存背景下很好地闡述了它的含義。在我們建立庫存的同時，我們實際上也在提高效率，因為這與收入的前瞻性觀點有關。

And I think that would be true for many of our distributors as well given the strength in the underlying market, certainly in the Americas. I would say that if you take a look at Europe specifically, while we're still seeing growth in our own orders in Europe, there has been a little bit of a slowdown in Europe. And while still growth, we have seen a little bit of a slowdown and a bit of an inventory adjustment that's taking place with some of our European distributors.

我認為，鑑於基礎市場（當然是美洲）的實力，對於我們的許多分銷商來說也是如此。我想說的是，如果你具體看一下歐洲，雖然我們仍然看到我們在歐洲的訂單有所增長，但歐洲已經出現了一些放緩。雖然仍在增長，但我們已經看到一些歐洲分銷商正在發生一些放緩和一些庫存調整。

And I think -- China, I think, will be going in the other direction as that market comes through COVID and begin to grow again. So very slightly regionally in aggregate. I'd say no inventory destocking to speak of at all. Regionally, a little bit of destocking in Europe with the U.S., and perhaps Asia market is still a little bit tight.

而且我認為 - 我認為，隨著該市場通過 COVID 並開始再次增長，中國將朝另一個方向發展。總體而言，區域性非常小。我會說根本沒有庫存去庫存。從地區來看，歐洲和美國有點去庫存，亞洲市場可能仍然有點吃緊。

Yes. Just to punch a specific number Nicole, I gave some numbers on the one chart, but our average quarterly orders in 2022 versus 2020 are up 55%, very big number.

是的。為了給妮可打一個具體的數字，我在一張圖表上給出了一些數字，但我們 2022 年的平均季度訂單與 2020 年相比增長了 55%，這是一個非常大的數字。

Got it. And I guess, looking at the guidance for the first quarter, you got organic decelerating to the 8% to 10% range versus 15% in 4Q. I guess, can you just talk through some of the segment-level drivers there? And is that mostly a function of just tougher comps?

知道了。我想，看看第一季度的指導，你有機減速到 8% 到 10% 的範圍，而第四季度為 15%。我想，你能談談那裡的一些段級驅動程序嗎？這主要是更強硬組合的功能嗎？

Yes. The revenue guide for Q1 versus Q4, I'd just say, one, we're anniversarying bigger numbers in Q1 last year. So certainly, it's the anniversary effect of it. We certainly have gotten quite a bit of price during the course of 2022 to offset inflation. So on a relative basis, you don't maybe have as much lift on a quarter-over-quarter basis in price. And I'd say those are really the two.

是的。第一季度與第四季度的收入指南，我只想說，我們在去年第一季度慶祝了更大的數字。當然，這是它的周年紀念效應。在 2022 年期間，我們當然已經獲得了相當多的價格來抵消通貨膨脹。因此，相對而言，您的價格環比可能沒有那麼大的提升。我會說那些真的是兩個。

And then there's this whole question around recession and how that's going to impact confidence in the outlook. And so lots of uncertainty. If you think about our growth for the year, Q1 is very much aligned at 9% at the midpoint with our growth for the year. And we'll see how the year unfolds, but those are primarily the reasons.

然後就是圍繞經濟衰退的整個問題，以及這將如何影響對前景的信心。所以有很多不確定性。如果你考慮一下我們今年的增長，第一季度與我們今年的增長非常一致，處於中點 9%。我們將看到這一年如何展開，但這些是主要的原因。

The next question is from the line of Scott Davis from Melius Research.

下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

Guys, you've been a little quiet on the M&A side since the Royal Power deal, which is fine, but there wasn't really anything in your slides on kind of target buybacks or anything where you're prioritizing capital allocation for '23. Can you comment on that, please?

伙計們，自皇家電力交易以來，你們在併購方面一直保持沉默，這很好，但你們的幻燈片中沒有任何關於目標回購的內容，也沒有任何你們為 23 年優先考慮資本分配的內容.你能對此發表評論嗎？

Yes. Sure, Scott. Yes, nothing really in the prepared remarks because we're staying the course with our same capital allocation tenets. Obviously, first, we're prioritizing organic growth, which we think is so important, especially with all the megatrends and secular tailwinds that we're right in the middle of. We're going to pay a competitive dividend as well. It's important to our investors.

是的。當然，斯科特。是的，準備好的評論中沒有任何內容，因為我們將按照相同的資本配置原則堅持到底。顯然，首先，我們優先考慮有機增長，我們認為這非常重要，尤其是在我們正處於所有大趨勢和長期順風之中的情況下。我們也將支付有競爭力的股息。這對我們的投資者很重要。

Having said that, we continue to be in the market and look for good acquisitions. We're also -- if you noted, we're also shrinking the tail in terms of divestitures. We had a small one that we did in the quarter. So we're actively doing that.

話雖如此，我們繼續在市場上尋找好的收購。我們也是——如果你注意到的話，我們也在縮減資產剝離的尾巴。我們在本季度做了一個小的。所以我們正在積極地這樣做。

And then in terms of buying back shares, this year, we did about $290 million. We guided $300 million to $600 million, and we'll be optimistic -- I mean, opportunistic there as appropriate. But it really hasn't changed. We're in the market. We're always looking. And yes, staying the course on our capital allocation tenets.

然後在回購股票方面，今年我們做了大約 2.9 億美元。我們指導了 3 億至 6 億美元，我們會很樂觀——我的意思是，在適當的時候投機取巧。但它真的沒有變。我們在市場上。我們一直在尋找。是的，堅持我們的資本配置原則。

And if I can just emphasize the point that Tom made is that we have just a lot of organic growth opportunities out there more than ever in terms of the history of the company. And so as we think about growing the enterprise, we don't need to go out and do acquisitions to grow the enterprise. There's plenty of organic growth opportunities in front of us that we're investing to support.

如果我可以強調湯姆提出的觀點，那就是我們在公司歷史上比以往任何時候都擁有更多的有機增長機會。因此，當我們考慮發展企業時，我們不需要出去進行收購來發展企業。我們正在投資支持大量有機增長機會擺在我們面前。

And -- but we'll continue to be opportunistic. If we see something that helps us strategically, maybe geographically -- one of the things that you've seen us do over the course of the last 12 months is we've really, I'd say, shored up our strategic position in China. We've entered into a number of joint ventures, and that's really the way we're trying to play the China card right now given some of the risks and uncertainties. But we entered into a number of really interesting joint ventures with local companies who have a strong position in the local market.

而且 - 但我們將繼續投機取巧。如果我們看到一些在戰略上，也許在地理上對我們有幫助的東西——你看到我們在過去 12 個月裡所做的其中一件事就是，我想說，我們確實鞏固了我們在中國的戰略地位.我們已經建立了一些合資企業，考慮到一些風險和不確定性，這確實是我們現在嘗試打中國牌的方式。但我們與在當地市場佔有重要地位的當地公司建立了一些非常有趣的合資企業。

We've taken a minority position. We will basically sell those products in markets outside of China, but they really do fill some really key product gaps in emerging markets in low-cost countries. And so yes, we've done some things on the JV side that I think shore up our position where we've had gaps, but there are just so many organic growth opportunities out there that we're pursuing. That really is the priority.

我們採取了少數立場。我們基本上會在中國以外的市場銷售這些產品，但它們確實填補了低成本國家新興市場中一些非常關鍵的產品空白。所以是的，我們在合資企業方面做了一些事情，我認為這些事情鞏固了我們存在差距的地位，但我們正在追求的有機增長機會太多了。這確實是當務之急。

Yes. And just to punctuate that, Scott, with a number. If you look at our backlog for Electrical and Aerospace back at the end of Q4 in '19, it was roughly a little over $4 billion. And as we said in the prepared remarks, we're at $11 billion now. So there's a lot of food on the table.

是的。斯科特，只是為了強調這一點，用一個數字。如果您查看我們在 19 年第四季度末的電氣和航空航天積壓訂單，大約略高於 40 億美元。正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，我們現在的收入為 110 億美元。所以桌子上有很多食物。

The next question is from Julian Mitchell from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Julian Mitchell。

Just wanted to understand on that cash flow guide. I think it's at the midpoint guided up about $900 million year-on-year. Net income is about $300 million, I think, of increase. So that sort of the delta of $600 million there. Is that sort of just the $500 million miss from '22? I'm assuming you capture it in '23. Is that how we should think about it? And maybe on the working capital point, is it all inventory kind of shouldering that delta? Or is receivables or payables doing anything interesting?

只是想了解該現金流量指南。我認為它處於中點，同比增長約 9 億美元。我認為淨收入大約增加了 3 億美元。所以那裡有 6 億美元的增量。那隻是 22 年的 5 億美元失誤嗎？我假設你在 23 年捕捉到了它。我們應該這樣想嗎？也許在營運資金方面，是否所有庫存都承擔了這個增量？或者應收賬款或應付賬款有什麼有趣的事情嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Julian. Just a slight nuance in terms of how you characterized it, I mean, while we did miss -- if we go back to that one chart, if we were able to foretell the future perfectly in terms of the order growth in the backlog, we might have guided a different number there.

是的。謝謝，朱利安。我的意思是，就你如何描述它而言，只是一個細微的差別，雖然我們確實錯過了——如果我們回到那個圖表，如果我們能夠根據積壓的訂單增長完美地預測未來，我們可能在那裡引導了不同的數字。

But coming back to the bridge from '22 to '23, in addition to the impact of higher income, it's going to be working capital performance. As we noted in our prepared remarks, we can do a lot better there. It's primarily inventory, but I would tell you it's not just inventory. We think we can do better on DSO and collections. We think we can do better on DPO as well. I think we've got a great continuous improvement focus in this area. We know we're not where we want to be. As we said, we invested prudently, but we can do a lot better, and we will do better this year in terms of net working capital.

但是回到從 22 年到 23 年的橋樑，除了更高收入的影響外，這將是營運資本的表現。正如我們在準備好的評論中指出的那樣，我們可以在那裡做得更好。它主要是庫存，但我會告訴你它不僅僅是庫存。我們認為我們可以在 DSO 和收藏方面做得更好。我們認為我們也可以在 DPO 上做得更好。我認為我們在這個領域有一個很好的持續改進重點。我們知道我們不是我們想去的地方。正如我們所說，我們謹慎投資，但我們可以做得更好，今年我們在淨營運資本方面會做得更好。

That's clear. And just my quick follow-up, you talked about the first quarter sort of organic sales segment a little bit. Maybe on the margins. So I think you're calling for the segment margin to drop sequentially about 1 point from fourth quarter into first quarter. Are we assuming kind of every segment has that similar drop and then sort of builds from there through the year? Anything to call out on that front, the sort of margins as we start the year and then move on by segment?

這很清楚。只是我的快速跟進，你談到了第一季度的有機銷售部分。也許在邊緣。所以我認為你要求部門利潤率從第四季度到第一季度連續下降約 1 個百分點。我們是否假設每個細分市場都有類似的下降，然後全年從那裡開始構建？在這方面有什麼值得一提的，我們開始今年然後按細分市場移動的那種利潤率？

Yes. I don't think there's anything particular to call out. I mean I would take you to our full year guide where we're taking margins and we're growing them 70 bps overall. And we've got margin growth in every single segment. Our EPS cadence is going to match our historical cadence of 45-55 to first half and second half. So I don't think there's anything specific to read into Q1.

是的。我不認為有什麼特別需要指出的。我的意思是我會帶你去我們的全年指南，我們正在獲取利潤並且我們正在將它們整體增長 70 個基點。我們在每個細分市場都有利潤增長。我們的 EPS 節奏將與我們上半場和下半場 45-55 的歷史節奏相匹配。所以我認為第一季度沒有什麼具體的內容可以解讀。

Other than the volume piece, Julian. As you know, there's certain cyclicality that we have in our various businesses. And that's generally the reason why the margins generally drop between Q4 and Q1. And to the extent that we have more cyclicality in one business or the other, you could see a slightly different play-through by segment, but that's really the primary issue.

除了體積塊，朱利安。如您所知，我們的各種業務都有一定的周期性。這通常就是利潤率通常在第四季度和第一季度之間下降的原因。就我們在一項業務或另一項業務中具有更多周期性而言，您可能會看到各細分市場略有不同，但這確實是主要問題。

Yes. And that's a good point, Craig. I think we see that in terms of our aero segment where we go down in Electrical and Electrical Americas as well, too.

是的。這是一個很好的觀點，克雷格。我認為我們在航空領域也看到了這一點，我們在美洲電氣和電氣領域也有所下降。

Yes.

是的。

The next question is from David Raso from Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 David Raso。

The quarterly cadence of the organic sales growth, the 9% we discussed in the first quarter, the way you're thinking about the rest of the year, is it all just sort of at the same kind of 7.5% level? I'm just trying to get a sense in particular about some markets where there's a little more concern about a slowdown in the back half then maybe other areas that could be accelerating. So can you first confirm, is that sort of how you think of the cadence?

有機銷售增長的季度節奏，我們在第一季度討論的 9%，你對今年剩餘時間的看法，是否都處於同樣的 7.5% 水平？我只是想特別了解一些市場，在這些市場中，人們更擔心後半部分的放緩，而不是其他可能正在加速的領域。那麼你能先確認一下，你對節奏的看法是這樣的嗎？

Yes. I think that's a fair way to think about the cadence. I mean, I think the great news for us is we're sitting on very large backlogs. And so to the extent that we had a little bit of an air pocket at some place, we can live off of our backlog for a very long time before it would actually impact our revenues.

是的。我認為這是考慮節奏的公平方式。我的意思是，我認為對我們來說好消息是我們積壓了大量訂單。因此，就我們在某個地方有一點氣穴的程度而言，我們可以在很長一段時間內依靠我們的積壓生活，直到它真正影響我們的收入。

And so I think as we think about the year, we still think it's a year where we're constrained, where -- but for labor constraints, capacity constraints, supply constraints, those numbers would be bigger than what we're currently forecasting. And so I do think a similar pattern of growth is a good placeholder for now in terms of the way you should think about the year.

所以我認為，當我們考慮這一年時，我們仍然認為這是我們受到限制的一年，如果沒有勞動力限制、產能限制、供應限制，這些數字將比我們目前預測的要大。因此，我確實認為，就您應該如何看待這一年而言，類似的增長模式目前是一個很好的佔位符。

And within Vehicle, the thought of auto sort of later in the year and truck later in the year, the interplay there? And a similar question on Electrical Global. Europe so far is proving a bit resilient, how to think about China and Europe in the back half of the year? Just those two interplays in those two divisions. I'll leave it at that.

在 Vehicle 中，今年晚些時候的汽車和卡車的想法，那裡的相互作用？以及關於 Electrical Global 的類似問題。歐洲目前表現出一定的彈性，下半年如何看待中國和歐洲？只是這兩個部門的兩個相互作用。我會留在那裡。

As I mentioned in my commentary, I think we're incrementally more optimistic on China. They came through COVID much quicker than what we anticipated. And the Zero COVID policy went away overnight, it felt like. And we're starting to see the Chinese government kind of reignite the economy over there.

正如我在評論中提到的，我認為我們對中國越來越樂觀。他們通過 COVID 的速度比我們預期的要快得多。感覺就像是，零 COVID 政策一夜之間就消失了。我們開始看到中國政府在某種程度上重振了那裡的經濟。

And so I think as the year builds, we think that we -- that China, and therefore, Asia continues to strengthen. It has a relatively better second half than the first half. I think Europe is a little bit more difficult of a call to make. Europe, as you noted, has continued to hang in there and be better than what we anticipated for most of 2022. And we're incrementally, I'd say, sitting here today more positive on 2023.

因此，我認為隨著時間的推移，我們認為我們——中國以及亞洲將繼續加強。下半場比上半場相對好一些。我認為歐洲更難做出決定。正如您所指出的那樣，歐洲繼續堅持下去，並且比我們對 2022 年大部分時間的預期要好。而且我要說的是，我們今天坐在這裡對 2023 年更加樂觀。

So difficult to really call whether or not we're going to see a different first half versus the second half in Europe. We're kind of planning for steady as she goes and more of a balanced view with respect to the year-over-year growth.

很難真正判斷我們是否會在歐洲看到不同的上半場和下半場。我們正在計劃在她離開時保持穩定，並且對同比增長持更平衡的看法。

The next question is from Chris Snyder from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Chris Snyder。

Craig, I wanted to follow up on your comment in the prepared remarks that you would be surprised if the company does not beat the 5% to 8% annual growth targets laid out at the Investor Day. Does this just reflect the fact that the company is running so far ahead of these targets? Or do you think forward growth to continue to top this range through 2025?

克雷格，我想跟進你在準備好的評論中的評論，如果公司沒有超過投資者日制定的 5% 到 8% 的年度增長目標，你會感到驚訝。這是否僅僅反映了公司遠遠領先於這些目標的事實？還是您認為到 2025 年，前瞻性增長將繼續超過這一範圍？

Yes. I think, one, to your point, we are certainly running ahead. I mean, if you take a look at, assuming the 2023 guidance is a good number, we've been running around 10% top line growth against the 5% to 8% target. So well ahead on growth. And quite frankly, we've become incrementally more positive on some of these secular growth trends.

是的。我認為，第一，就你的觀點而言，我們肯定會領先。我的意思是，如果你看一下，假設 2023 年的指導是一個很好的數字，我們的收入增長率一直在 10% 左右，而目標是 5% 到 8%。增長如此順利。坦率地說，我們對其中一些長期增長趨勢越來越樂觀。

I think if you take a look at stimulus spending, that number has been topped up since we laid those goals out more than a year ago. I think today, if you think about climate change and some of the investments that are going into grid resiliency -- and so as we sit here today, I would tell you that the secular growth trends that we spent a lot of time talking about, we've become even incrementally more positive on what the longer-term implications are of these secular growth trends.

我認為，如果你看一下刺激支出，自從我們一年多前製定這些目標以來，這個數字已經達到頂峰。我想今天，如果你考慮氣候變化和一些正在進入電網彈性的投資——所以當我們今天坐在這裡時，我會告訴你我們花了很多時間談論的長期增長趨勢，我們對這些長期增長趨勢的長期影響變得更加積極。

Now that may not play out completely between now and 2025. I think there's going to be some capacity constraints in the industry, and we're already experiencing some of those. That could be a gating factor. But that just gives us a much longer runway on the back end of this thing in terms of what's going to happen with these markets over the long term.

從現在到 2025 年，這可能不會完全發揮作用。我認為該行業將存在一些產能限制，我們已經在經歷其中的一些限制。這可能是一個門控因素。但這只是讓我們在這件事的後端有更長的跑道，從長遠來看這些市場會發生什麼。

Yes. I appreciate that. It certainly feels like it's showing through with the orders and the pipeline. But then kind of on that, obviously, global orders have decelerated. It sounds like the company is decently optimistic on the rate of change and certainly in China. It sounds like maybe even Europe as well. With that, could we actually see global orders reaccelerate in 2023 just given those two economies maybe starting to move in the right direction?

是的。我很感激。它肯定感覺它通過訂單和管道顯示出來。但是，很明顯，全球訂單已經減速。聽起來該公司對變化率相當樂觀，當然在中國也是如此。聽起來甚至歐洲也是如此。鑑於此，鑑於這兩個經濟體可能開始朝著正確的方向發展，我們真的能看到全球訂單在 2023 年重新加速嗎？

Yes. I mean, I think it's -- when you say reaccelerate. I think it's a question of relative numbers. We had a very strong year for the most part, a very, very strong first half of the year in our Global business. And we're still anticipating growth, but we are anticipating the rate of growth will have slowed from what we saw in 2022. A lot of that tied to this assumption around a global recession that could hit Europe perhaps more impactfully than it maybe would in other regions of the world. And so it could -- there's a possibility that we could see a reacceleration. That's not our base assumption. We assume that we're going to still see growth but growth at a slower rate.

是的。我的意思是，我認為它是——當你說重新加速時。我認為這是一個相對數字的問題。在大多數情況下，我們度過了非常強勁的一年，上半年我們的全球業務非常非常強勁。我們仍然期待增長，但我們預計增長率將從我們在 2022 年看到的速度放緩。這在很大程度上與圍繞全球經濟衰退的假設有關，全球經濟衰退對歐洲的影響可能比過去更大世界其他地區。所以它可以——我們有可能看到重新加速。那不是我們的基本假設。我們假設我們仍將看到增長，但增長速度會放緩。

Yes. Let me just punch some numbers on Global because we talked a lot about Americas, but just to punch a few numbers. For trailing 12-month orders in our Global segment, we have high double digit in commercial and institution. We're over 20% in residential, and data centers is doing significantly well. I mean utility is up high single digits. So very strong growth also in Global, not to the extent of Americas but still very sporty.

是的。讓我在全球範圍內打一些數字，因為我們談了很多關於美洲的事情，但只是為了打幾個數字。對於我們全球部門過去 12 個月的訂單，我們在商業和機構方面有很高的兩位數。我們超過 20% 用於住宅，數據中心的表現非常好。我的意思是效用是高個位數。全球也有非常強勁的增長，雖然沒有達到美洲的程度，但仍然非常運動。

And our next question, which is the final one in queue, is from Brett Linzey from Mizuho Americas.

我們的下一個問題是隊列中的最後一個問題，來自瑞穗美洲的 Brett Linzey。

I wanted to come back to Electrical. So the incremental margins reported 44% in the fourth quarter. You're only guiding about 30% for the year. I'm just curious why Q4 would not be more reflective of an undisturbed result with supply chains resolving and price catching up. So curious if there's something else through the course of '23 or just conservatism.

我想回到 Electrical。因此，第四季度的增量利潤率為 44%。你一年只指導了大約 30%。我只是好奇為什麼第四季度不會更多地反映供應鏈解決和價格追趕的未受干擾的結果。很好奇在 23 年的過程中是否還有其他東西或只是保守主義。

Yes. I mean that's the same discussion I'm having with my operating leaders. Why isn't Q4 44% the new normal? And I'd say that, as you can imagine, in every quarter, there's always a number of things that can go positively in your direction and things that could go against you. And we just had a very strong quarter of execution and good mix in our Americas business in Q4 that drove those incrementals to be well above where they would normally run.

是的。我的意思是這與我與我的運營領導者進行的討論相同。為什麼 Q4 44% 不是新常態？我要說的是，正如您可以想像的那樣，在每個季度，總有一些事情可以朝著您的方向積極發展，也有一些事情可能對您不利。我們在第四季度的美洲業務中有一個非常強勁的執行季度和良好的組合，這推動這些增量遠高於正常運行的水平。

We do think from a planning standpoint, especially given some of the investments that we need to continue to make to support this growth in R&D and an customer capture initiatives, that we think 30% is the right planning number to have. And as you think about the business on a go-forward basis and very much consistent with where we've been historically.

我們確實從規劃的角度考慮，特別是考慮到我們需要繼續進行一些投資以支持研發的增長和客戶獲取計劃，我們認為 30% 是正確的規劃數字。當你在前進的基礎上考慮業務並且與我們歷史上的情況非常一致時。

I'll just end on 30% is good for planning. But we take the coaching, and we don't want to disappoint the Chairman. So we'll work hard to beat that.

我將以 30% 結束，這對計劃很有幫助。但是我們是帶教練的，不想讓主席失望。所以我們會努力打敗它。

And just one last follow-up. Where are we in this pricing cycle? I mean, is there more to do here? Have you made announcements for this year? And then maybe any context for what you're embedding for the price component of the 7% to 9% growth this year?

最後一次跟進。我們在這個定價週期中處於什麼位置？我的意思是，這裡還有更多事情要做嗎？你有發布今年的公告嗎？然後，對於今年 7% 到 9% 的增長的價格部分，你嵌入了什麼背景？

Yes. Certainly, price will be a contributor to the growth for 2023. It obviously contributes at a much lower rate than it's contributed in 2022. And yes, there is some more to do. We are, in fact, expecting to see positive price over the course of the year.

是的。當然，價格將對 2023 年的增長做出貢獻。它的貢獻率顯然比 2022 年的貢獻率低得多。是的，還有更多工作要做。事實上，我們期望在這一年中看到積極的價格。

We -- today, commodities have certainly slowed their rate of ascent. In some cases, we treat it a little bit, but they're back up again. You see copper is back up again. And the big challenge right now we're finding is really on the labor front. Labor inflation is certainly coming through the system. And so clearly, we still have work to do on the price front, and it's baked into the guidance that we laid out, but it will certainly be at a much lower rate than what we experienced over the course of 2022. And most of what you're seeing in those growth numbers are volume.

我們 - 今天，大宗商品肯定已經放慢了它們的上升速度。在某些情況下，我們稍微處理一下，但他們又回來了。你看銅價又回來了。我們現在發現的最大挑戰實際上是在勞動力方面。勞動力通脹肯定會通過系統來實現。很明顯，我們在價格方面仍有工作要做，它已納入我們制定的指導方針中，但肯定會比我們在 2022 年期間經歷的速度低得多。而且大部分你在這些增長數字中看到的是數量。

We have reached to the end of our call and do appreciate everybody's questions. As always, [Chip] and I will be available to address your follow-up questions. Thank you for joining us today. Have a great day, guys.

我們的電話會議已經結束，非常感謝大家提出的問題。一如既往，[Chip] 和我將隨時為您解答後續問題。感謝您今天加入我們。祝你有美好的一天，伙計們。

Thank you. And that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T Teleconference Service. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。這確實結束了我們今天的會議。感謝您的參與和使用 AT&T 電話會議服務。您現在可以斷開連接。