伊頓 (ETN) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Eaton fourth quarter earnings call. (Operator Instructions) And as a reminder, your conference is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，感謝大家的支持，歡迎參加伊頓第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）提醒一下，您的會議正在被錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Yan Jin, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給投資者關係高級副總裁嚴進先生。請繼續。

Good morning, everyone. Thank you all for joining us for Eaton's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earning Call. With me today are Craig Arnold, our Chairman and CEO; and Tom Okray, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Our agenda today includes opening remarks by Craig, then we will turn it over to Tom, who will highlight the company's performance in the fourth quarter. As we have done on our past calls, we will be taking questions at the end of Craig's closing commentary. The press release and the presentation we'll go through today have been posted on our website.

大家早安。感謝大家參加伊頓 2022 年第四季財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有我們的董事長兼執行長克雷格‧阿諾德 (Craig Arnold)；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Tom Okray。我們今天的議程包括克雷格的開幕詞，然後我們將交給湯姆，他將重點介紹公司在第四季度的表現。正如我們在過去的電話會議中所做的那樣，我們將在克雷格的結束語結束時回答問題。我們今天要發布的新聞稿和簡報已發佈在我們的網站上。

This presentation includes adjusted earnings per share, adjusted free cash flow and other non-GAAP measures. They're reconciled in the appendix. A webcast of this call is accessible on our website and will be available for replay.

本報告包括調整後的每股盈餘、調整後的自由現金流量和其他非公認會計準則指標。附錄中已將它們進行了核對。本次通話的網路直播可在我們的網站上觀看，並可供重播。

I would like to remind you that our comments today will include statements related to the expected future results of the company and are therefore forward-looking statements. Our actual results may differ materially from our forecasted projections due to a wide range of risks and uncertainties that are described in our earning release and the presentation.

我想提醒您，我們今天的評論將包括與公司預期未來業績相關的陳述，因此是前瞻性陳述。由於我們的收益報告和簡報中描述了各種各樣的風險和不確定性，我們的實際結果可能與我們的預測有重大差異。

With that, I will turn it over to Craig.

說完這些，我將把麥克風交給 Craig。

Thanks, Yan. We'll begin with the highlights of the quarter on Page 3. And I'll start by noting that we again delivered very strong results in the quarter and record performance for the year. We generated adjusted EPS of $2.06 for the quarter and $7.57 for the year, both all-time records in each period.

謝謝，Yan。我們將從第 3 頁開始介紹本季的亮點。我們本季的調整後每股收益為 2.06 美元，全年調整後每股收益為 7.57 美元，均創下歷史新高。

Our Q4 adjusted EPS was up 20% from prior year. Our sales were $5.4 billion, up 15% organically and for the second quarter in a row with particular strength in utility, industrial, commercial institution, data center markets for electrical and commercial aerospace, vehicle and eMobility markets on the industrial side.

我們第四季的調整後每股盈餘較上年同期成長了 20%。我們的銷售額為 54 億美元，有機成長 15%，連續第二季成長，在公用事業、工業、商業機構、電氣和商用航空的資料中心市場、工業方面的汽車和電動車市場表現尤為強勁。

And we continue to post strong margins. Q4 margins of 20.8% were up 150 basis points from prior year, near the high end of our guidance range. And incremental margins were 33% in the quarter. For the full year, we delivered record segment margins of 20.2%, up 130 basis points from prior year.

我們持續保持強勁的利潤率。第四季的利潤率為 20.8%，較上年同期上升了 150 個基點，接近我們預期範圍的高點。本季增量利潤率為33%。全年，我們的分部利潤率達到創紀錄的 20.2%，比前一年上升了 130 個基點。

And as noted here, orders continue to remain very strong. On a rolling 12-month basis, Electrical orders were up 25% and Aerospace orders increased 24%, which led, quite frankly, to record backlogs as well, up 68% in Electrical and up 21% in Aerospace.

正如這裡所述，訂單繼續保持強勁。連續 12 個月，電氣訂單成長 25%，航空航太訂單成長 24%，也導致積壓訂單創下歷史新高，電氣訂單成長 68%，航空航太訂單成長 21%。

Now lastly, in what was an otherwise challenging year, we generated record free cash flow in the quarter with adjusted free cash flow up 41%. And our free cash flow as a percentage of sales was 18.1% in the quarter.

最後，在這個充滿挑戰的一年裡，我們在本季創造了創紀錄的自由現金流，調整後的自由現金流增加了 41%。本季我們的自由現金流佔銷售額的百分比為 18.1%。

While improved cash flow in the second half of the year, it wasn't enough to really achieve the full year cash flow targets. As we indicated, we continue to prioritize supporting higher organic growth, winning new orders and protecting our customers, which all contributed to higher levels of working capital. But we still have work to do and with a focus on those areas that don't impact revenue growth.

雖然下半年現金流有所改善，但這還不足以真正實現全年現金流目標。正如我們所指出的，我們繼續優先支持更高的有機成長、贏得新訂單和保護我們的客戶，所有這些都有助於提高營運資本水準。但我們仍有工作要做，重點放在那些不會影響營收成長的領域。

On Page 4, I summarize our performance highlights for last year. Overall, I'd say, in a challenging operating environment, our team delivered strong financial results. And as noted here, we exceeded three of our four key financial metrics.

在第 4 頁，我總結了我們去年的業績亮點。總的來說，我想說，在充滿挑戰的營運環境中，我們的團隊取得了強勁的財務表現。正如這裡所指出的，我們的四個關鍵財務指標中有三個超過了預期。

First, for organic revenue, we posted 13% growth, which was actually more than 60% above our original guidance at the midpoint. Throughout '22, we raised our organic revenue growth in all segments, and the team delivered on the organic growth expectations that we set. It's worth noting that our largest business, Electrical Americas, delivered 16% organic growth, 2x the midpoint of our original guidance.

首先，就有機收入而言，我們實現了 13% 的成長，實際上比我們最初預期的中位數高出 60% 以上。在整個22年，我們提高了所有部門的有機收入成長，團隊實現了我們設定的有機成長預期。值得注意的是，我們最大的業務美國電氣公司實現了 16% 的有機成長，是我們最初預期中位數的 2 倍。

Second, I'd note that we continue to demonstrate our ability to drive profitable growth with record margins of 20.2% in 2022, which was 10 basis points above our original guidance at the midpoint.

其次，我要指出的是，我們繼續展示推動獲利成長的能力，2022 年的利潤率達到創紀錄的 20.2%，比我們最初預期的中位數高出 10 個基點。

Third, adjusted EPS of $7.57 was $0.07 higher than the midpoint of our original guidance. And I'd note that we fully offset the impact of some $500 million of unfavorable currency or roughly $0.20 a share.

第三，調整後的每股盈餘為 7.57 美元，比我們最初預期的中位數高出 0.07 美元。我要指出的是，我們完全抵消了約 5 億美元不利貨幣或每股約 0.20 美元的影響。

Lastly, I'd note that we did miss our free cash flow guidance for the year. Most of this miss went into working capital to support higher levels of sales and orders and the record backlogs. But I'd say here, once again, I know we can do better. As you might expect, supply chain disruptions and our decision to prioritize protecting customers with higher inventory played a major role in this inventory growth over the year.

最後，我要指出的是，我們確實沒有達到今年的自由現金流預期。其中大部分損失都轉為營運資金，以支持更高水準的銷售和訂單以及創紀錄的積壓訂單。但我想再說一遍，我知道我們可以做得更好。正如您所預料的，供應鏈中斷以及我們優先保護庫存較高的客戶的決定在去年庫存成長中發揮了重要作用。

But overall, I'd say it was a good year despite a year filled with inflation, labor shortages, supply chain disruptions and FX headwinds, and the team delivered record financial results and we go into 2023 with positive momentum.

但總體而言，儘管這一年充滿了通貨膨脹、勞動力短缺、供應鏈中斷和外匯逆風，但我認為這是好的一年，團隊取得了創紀錄的財務業績，我們以積極的勢頭進入 2023 年。

So turning to Page 5. I hope at this point, you would agree that 2022 wasn't an exceptional year but just another year of delivering what we promised. And that it reflects the fundamental changes that we've made to the company over the last decade. We are a very different company today than we were 10 years ago. We've embraced the realities of a changing world and a necessity for us to change as well. We're now in attractive growth-oriented end markets, and we have a proven formula for how we run the company better through the Eaton Business System.

請翻到第 5 頁。它反映了我們過去十年對公司所做的根本變革。如今，我們公司與十年前相比已有很大不同。我們接受了世界正在改變的現實，也接受了自己也需要改變的必要性。我們現在處於具有吸引力的以成長為導向的終端市場，並且我們擁有一套行之有效的方法，了解如何透過伊頓業務系統更好地經營公司。

With this transformation, we've become a stronger company that has delivered higher growth, higher margins and better earnings consistency. And we continue to be a good steward of your capital. The end result is the new Eaton where some 90% of our profits now come from Electrical and Aerospace businesses. But once again, when I'm done, we'll continue to apply our operational model, our strategic framework and our potential [clinic] criteria, and we'd expect to continue to maximize value to all of our stakeholders.

透過此次轉型，我們已成為一家更強大的公司，實現了更高的成長、更高的利潤率和更好的獲利穩定性。我們將繼續做好您資本的管理。最終的結果是，新伊頓目前約 90% 的利潤來自電氣和航空航天業務。但再說一次，當我完成工作後，我們將繼續應用我們的營運模式、策略框架和潛在的[診所]標準，並且我們希望繼續為所有利害關係人實現價值最大化。

And as you can see on Page 6, what this transformation has delivered to our shareholders. As you would expect, our strong results have translated into very strong financial results. And for the sake of comparison, we charted total shareholder returns for 3, 5 and 7 years. And we've compared our results with the S&P 500, the medium of our peer group and the XLI Industrial Index. And in every case, Eaton has significantly outperformed our benchmarks. And as I'll explain in the next few slides, we do believe our best days are still in front of us.

正如您在第 6 頁看到的，這次轉型為我們的股東帶來了什麼。正如您所期望的，我們的強勁業績轉化為非常強勁的財務表現。為了方便比較，我們繪製了 3 年、5 年和 7 年的股東總回報率圖表。我們將結果與標準普爾 500 指數、同行平均指數和 XLI 工業指數進行了比較。在每種情況下，伊頓的表現都遠遠超出了我們的基準。正如我將在接下來的幾張幻燈片中解釋的那樣，我們確實相信我們最好的日子仍在前方。

Turning to Page 7. Our transformation into a global intelligent power management company has positioned Eaton at the center of some of -- what we think are some of the most important trends that we'll see in our lifetime. The most significant being climate change and all the downstream implications that it brings. As we all know, climate change is driving the need to transition from fossil fuels to renewables, and increased regulations are driving the demand for new solutions. These solutions will require tremendous investments in renewables and grid infrastructure for both new and existing buildings.

翻到第 7 頁。最重要的是氣候變遷及其帶來的所有下游影響。眾所周知，氣候變遷正在推動從化石燃料向再生能源的轉變，而法規的加強正在推動對新解決方案的需求。這些解決方案將需要對新建和現有建築的可再生能源和電網基礎設施進行大量投資。

This trend is also closely coupled to need to electrify the economy. Cars, trucks, planes, buildings are all requiring more electrical content. And as we move away from fossil fuels, this allows us to take advantage of renewables. And digitalization is providing us access to data and insights that are allowing us to be more connected, more productive and more efficient than ever.

這一趨勢也與經濟電氣化的需求密切相關。汽車、卡車、飛機、建築物都需要更多的電力。隨著我們逐漸擺脫化石燃料，我們可以利用再生能源。數位化讓我們能夠獲取數據和見解，讓我們比以往更加互聯互通、生產力更高、效率更高。

It's also, by the way, creating a need for more data centers, an important end market for Eaton. Additive to these trends, we're also on the front end of an aerospace recovery cycle that will drive growth in both our commercial and military markets. I don't know about you, but I can tell you, I don't -- I can't think of a company with a better set of market dynamics than Eaton. And while we're not ready to change our long-term growth goals, I'd be surprised if we didn't exceed our previously announced targets of 5% to 8% annual growth.

順便說一句，這也創造了對更多資料中心的需求，而資料中心是伊頓的一個重要的終端市場。除了這些趨勢之外，我們還處於航空航天復甦週期的前端，這將推動我們商業和軍事市場的成長。我不知道您怎麼想，但我可以告訴您，我想不出有哪家公司的市場動態比伊頓更好。雖然我們還沒有準備好改變我們的長期成長目標，但如果我們沒有超過之前宣布的5%到8%的年增長率的目標，我會感到驚訝。

Next, on Page 8, we highlight how these megatrends are supported by unprecedented government stimulus spending really around the world. In fact, these programs will have a direct impact on the growth rate of more than half of our end markets. And in the U.S. alone, the Infrastructure Act from 2021 and the Inflation Reduction Act from 2022 will fund some $450 billion of grid modernization and other climate-related programs. And of particular importance to Eaton is the $88 billion that are set aside for power grid updates and EV charging networks and incentives.

接下來，在第 8 頁，我們將重點介紹這些大趨勢是如何得到世界各地政府前所未有的刺激支出的支持的。事實上，這些計劃將對我們一半以上終端市場的成長率產生直接影響。光是在美國，2021 年的《基礎設施法案》和 2022 年的《通膨削減法案》將為電網現代化和其他氣候相關項目提供約 4,500 億美元的資金。對伊頓來說尤其重要的是撥出 880 億美元用於電網更新和電動車充電網路和激勵措施。

In Europe, the EU recovery plan recovers -- provides, excuse me, $244 billion of green energy transition, which member states are now working on implementing. And in China, the government has set clear goals to lower carbon emissions. They've laid out plans to strengthen their grid by 2025, including investments in more wind and solar.

在歐洲，歐盟復甦計畫提供了 2,440 億美元的綠色能源轉型資金，成員國目前正在努力實施。在中國，政府已訂定了降低碳排放的明確目標。他們制定了到 2025 年加強電網的計劃，包括對更多風能和太陽能的投資。

China also continues to lead the world in the adoption of electric vehicles. But even if you exclude China, we still estimate that between the U.S. and EU programs will expand Eaton's addressable market by some $11 billion to $14 billion over the next 5 years. And I'd say this is just another powerful tailwind that supports our confidence in the growth outlook of the company.

中國在電動車的普及方面也持續保持世界領先地位。但即使排除中國，我們仍估計，美國和歐盟的計畫將在未來 5 年內使伊頓的潛在市場擴大約 110 億美元至 140 億美元。我想說這只是另一個強大的順風，支持我們對公司成長前景的信心。

Tom will pick it up here and take you through the numbers.

湯姆會在這裡繼續講解並向您介紹這些數字。

Thanks, Craig. On Page 9, I'll begin with highlighting a few key points regarding our Q4 results. Revenue was up 12% with organic growth of 15%, partially offset by a 4% foreign exchange headwind and a 1% favorable net impact from acquisitions. This outcome illustrates our focus of prioritizing growth in our customers. With total revenue growth of 12%, we posted solid operating leverage. Operating profit grew 21% and adjusted EPS grew 20%.

謝謝，克雷格。在第 9 頁，我將首先強調有關我們第四季業績的幾個關鍵點。營收成長 12%，有機成長率為 15%，但被 4% 的外匯逆風和 1% 的收購淨利好影響部分抵銷。這一結果體現了我們優先考慮客戶成長的重點。總收入成長了 12%，我們實現了穩固的經營槓桿。營業利益成長21%，調整後每股盈餘成長20%。

Further, excluding the $0.05 impact from foreign exchange, growth in adjusted EPS would have been 23%. All in, strong organic growth and margins enabled us to report all-time record adjusted earnings of $825 million and adjusted EPS of $2.06, which was above our guidance midpoint. Lastly, I'd like to note that we continue to raise the bar with our Q4 records for both segment operating margin and segment operating profit.

此外，除去0.05美元的外匯影響，調整後每股盈餘成長率將達23%。總體而言，強勁的有機成長和利潤率使我們能夠報告創紀錄的 8.25 億美元調整後收益和 2.06 美元調整後每股收益，高於我們的指導中位數。最後，我想指出的是，我們第四季的分部營業利潤率和分部營業利潤的記錄持續提高。

Moving on to the next chart, we summarized strong financial performance for our Electrical Americas business. For yet another quarter, we have set all-time records for sales, operating profit and margin. Further, we've also set all-time records for these metrics for the full year. Organic sales growth accelerated from 18% in Q3 to 20% in Q4 with robust growth in every end market and particular strength in utility, data center and commercial and institutional markets.

在下一張圖表中，我們總結了美洲電氣業務強勁的財務表現。又一個季度，我們的銷售額、營業利潤和利潤率創下了歷史新高。此外，我們也創下了全年這些指標的歷史最高紀錄。有機銷售額成長從第三季的 18% 加速到第四季的 20%，每個終端市場都實現了強勁成長，尤其是在公用事業、資料中心以及商業和機構市場表現強勁。

Operating margin of 23.7% was up 450 basis points versus prior year, benefiting from higher volumes. In addition, incremental margins were quite strong at 47%. We continue to manage price effectively to more than offset inflationary pressures. Further, it should be noted that Electrical Americas outperformed their original 2020 guidance by 100 basis points.

營業利益率為 23.7%，較上年上升 450 個基點，受惠於銷售成長。此外，增量利潤率也相當強勁，達到47%。我們繼續有效管理價格以抵銷通膨壓力。此外，值得注意的是，Electrical Americas 的表現超越其最初的 2020 年指引 100 個基點。

Orders in backlog continued to be very strong. On a rolling 12-month basis, orders were up 34%, which remains at a high level with strong growth across the board and particular strength in data center, utility and industrial markets. Backlog ended the year up 87% versus prior year and increased sequentially from Q3.

積壓訂單持續保持強勁。連續 12 個月，訂單成長 34%，仍處於高水平，全面強勁成長，尤其在資料中心、公用事業和工業市場表現強勁。本年度積壓訂單量較上年同期成長了 87%，且較第三季有季增。

In addition to the robust trends and orders in backlog, our major project negotiations pipeline in Q4 was up nearly 100% versus prior year from especially strong growth in manufacturing, data center, industrial and utility end markets. Overall, Electrical Americas had a strong quarter to round out a very good year and continues to be well positioned as we start 2023.

除了強勁的趨勢和積壓訂單外，由於製造業、資料中心、工業和公用事業終端市場的強勁成長，我們第四季的主要專案談判管道比去年同期成長了近 100%。總體而言，美國電氣公司本季表現強勁，為今年畫上了圓滿句號，並在 2023 年伊始繼續保持良好地位。

Moving to Page 11, we show results for our Electrical Global segment, which produced another strong quarter, including records for Q4 and full year records for sales, operating profit and margins. Organic growth was up 8%, which was entirely offset by headwinds from foreign exchange of 7% and divestiture of 1%.

第 11 頁展示了電氣全球部門的業績，該部門又取得了強勁的季度業績，包括第四季度和全年的銷售額、營業利潤和利潤率均創下新高。有機成長率達到 8%，但被 7% 的外匯不利因素和 1% 的資產剝離所完全抵消。

With respect to organic growth, we saw strength in utility, industrial and data center end markets. On a regional basis, we posted high single-digit organic growth in IEMEA and mid-single-digit organic growth in APAC. Operating margin of 18.7% was down 80 basis points versus prior year, primarily due to foreign exchange headwinds.

就有機成長而言，我們看到公用事業、工業和資料中心終端市場的強勁表現。從地區來看，我們在 IEMEA 地區實現了高個位數有機成長，在 APAC 地區實現了中等個位數有機成長。營業利益率為 18.7%，較前一年下降 80 個基點，主要原因是外匯逆風。

We continue to see good order intake. Orders were up 11% on a rolling 12-month basis with strength in data center and commercial and institutional markets. Backlog growth of 17% also remains strong.

我們繼續看到良好的訂單量。由於資料中心、商業和機構市場表現強勁，訂單量在連續 12 個月內成長了 11%。 17%的積壓訂單成長也保持強勁。

Before moving to our industrial businesses, I'd like to briefly recap the combined Electrical segments. For Q4, we posted organic growth of 15%, incremental margins of 44% and operating margin of 21.8%, which was 250 basis points of year-over-year margin improvement. For the full year, our Electrical segments grew 15% organically, generated 33% incremental margin, increased margin 140 basis points, posted 25% rolling 12 months order growth and increased backlog 68%. We are confident that we're well positioned for continued growth with strong margins in our overall Electrical business.

在談到我們的工業業務之前，我想先簡單回顧一下合併後的電氣部門。第四季度，我們的有機成長率為 15%，增量利潤率為 44%，營業利潤率為 21.8%，與去年同期相比，利潤率提高了 250 個基點。全年來看，我們的電氣部門有機成長 15%，增量利潤率 33%，利潤率提高 140 個基點，連續 12 個月訂單成長 25%，積壓訂單增加 68%。我們有信心，我們整個電氣業務的利潤率很高，能夠持續成長。

The next chart recaps our Aerospace segment. We posted all-time record sales and operating profit for both the quarter and on a full year basis. Organic growth accelerated to 11% with a 4% headwind from foreign exchange. This growth was driven by strength in commercial markets with commercial aftermarket up 35% and commercial OEM up more than 20%.

下圖概括了我們的航空航太領域。我們本季和全年的銷售額和營業利潤均創下了歷史新高。有機成長率加速至 11%，但外匯帶來的阻力為 4%。這一成長主要得益於商業市場的強勁成長，其中商業售後市場成長 35%，商業 OEM 成長超過 20%。

Relative to profit, operating margin was strong at 24.5%. And it's worth noting that Aerospace outperformed their original 2020 guidance by 100 basis points. Order growth and backlog are very encouraging. On a rolling 12-month basis, order acceleration continued, up 24% compared to 22% in Q3 and 19% in Q2 with strength across all end markets.

相對於利潤，營業利益率高達24.5%。值得注意的是，航空航太產業的表現超越了其最初的 2020 年指導目標 100 個基點。訂單成長和積壓訂單非常令人鼓舞。連續 12 個月，訂單繼續加速成長，較第三季的 22% 和第二季的 19% 成長 24%，所有終端市場均表現強勁。

Similar to Q3, we saw especially strong growth in military OEM orders, up 80% in the quarter, which positions us well for growth in 2023 and confirms our expectations for increased defense spending, including breakout performance in 2024. Year-over-year backlog increased from 17% in Q3 to up 21% in Q4.

與第三季類似，我們看到軍事 OEM 訂單成長尤為強勁，本季成長了 80%，這為我們在 2023 年的成長奠定了良好的基礎，並證實了我們對國防開支增加的預期，包括 2024 年的突破性表現。

Moving on to our Vehicle segment on Page 13. Vehicle had strong revenue growth in the second half of the year. In Q4, revenue was up 16% with 18% organic growth and 2% unfavorable foreign exchange. This coming off 19% organic growth in Q3. We saw growth across all markets with particular strength in North America and South America light vehicle. We also saw double-digit growth in APAC.

我們繼續討論第 13 頁的車輛部門。第四季度，營收成長 16%，其中有機成長 18%，外匯不利影響 2%。這是繼第三季 19% 的有機成長之後的另一個成果。我們看到所有市場均實現成長，其中北美和南美輕型車市場表現特別強勁。我們也看到亞太地區實現了兩位數的成長。

Operating margins came in at 15.2% with unfavorability to prior year, primarily due to manufacturing inefficiencies. As expected, we were able to completely offset the impact of inflation with pricing in Q4. We also secured wins in new and sustainable technologies, such as EV gearing and transmissions, with a large and growing opportunity pipeline.

營業利益率為 15.2%，較上年同期下降，主要原因是製造效率低。正如預期的那樣，我們能夠透過第四季度的定價完全抵消通貨膨脹的影響。我們也在電動車傳動裝置和變速箱等新興永續技術領域取得了勝利，並擁有龐大且不斷成長的機會管道。

On Page 14, we show results for our eMobility business. We generated very strong growth in the quarter. Revenue was up 58%, including 17% from organic growth and 44% from the acquisition of Royal Power, partially offset by 3% negative foreign exchange. Margin improved 780 basis points versus prior year driven by higher volumes and the impact from Royal Power.

第 14 頁，我們展示了我們的 eMobility 業務的成果。我們在本季實現了非常強勁的成長。營收成長 58%，其中 17% 來自有機成長，44% 來自收購 Royal Power，部分被 3% 的負外匯影響所抵銷。受銷量增加和 Royal Power 的影響，利潤率較上年同期提高了 780 個基點。

We remain encouraged by the growth prospects of the eMobility segment. Since 2018, we've won $1.4 billion of mature year revenues in this business, including a recent $400 million win for power protection and distribution units with a European customer. This is a major new program win in both U.S. and European markets with production starting in 2024. This win demonstrates Eaton's ability to leverage our capabilities across our entire portfolio, including core technology in both electrical and industrial businesses.

我們仍然對電動車領域的成長前景感到鼓舞。自 2018 年以來，我們在該業務中贏得了 14 億美元的成熟年度收入，其中包括最近為歐洲客戶贏得的 4 億美元電源保護和配電設備收入。這是伊頓在美國和歐洲市場贏得的一項重大新項目，將於 2024 年開始生產。

We partnered with our customer to electrify their mobile platform with solutions, including Breaktor and Bussmann fuses. We also leverage our extensive vehicle expertise and added content from our Royal Power acquisition. Overall, we continue to make progress toward our long-term goal to create a $2 billion to $4 billion business with 15% margins by 2030. We are now on track to exceed our expectation to deliver $1.2 billion of revenue and 11% margin by 2025.

我們與客戶合作，透過包括 Breaktor 和 Bussmann 保險絲在內的解決方案為他們的行動平台提供電氣化。我們還利用我們豐富的車輛專業知識和從 Royal Power 收購中獲得的附加內容。總體而言，我們繼續朝著我們的長期目標邁進，即到 2030 年打造一個收入達到 20 億至 40 億美元、利潤率達到 15% 的業務。

Moving to Page 15. I'm going to unpack a theme that Craig mentioned at the top of the call related to our strategic investments in working capital to support strong orders and backlog, which enables accelerated organic growth. Overall, in spite of supporting surging orders and backlog, we are driving working capital improvements.

轉到第 15 頁。總體而言，儘管支持訂單和積壓訂單激增，但我們仍在推動營運資本的改善。

To illustrate the trend, I'll provide a couple of examples. Net working capital to orders and inventory as a percentage of backlog. Focusing on the left side of the chart, the average value of our Electrical and Aerospace quarterly orders in 2022 was more than 20% higher than 2021 and 33% more than 2019. However, to support these increasing orders, we have only slightly increased the absolute value of our working capital. The result is shown in the graph on the left side of the page. Our ratio of net working capital at year-end to trailing 12-month orders has stepped down significantly from 2019 to 2022.

為了說明這一趨勢，我將提供幾個例子。淨營運資本與訂單和庫存之比為積壓訂單的百分比。重點關注圖表左側，我們 2022 年電氣和航空航天季度訂單的平均價值比 2021 年高出 20% 以上，比 2019 年高出 33%。結果顯示在頁面左側的圖表中。從 2019 年到 2022 年，我們的年末淨營運資本與過去 12 個月訂單的比率已大幅下降。

Moving to the right side of the chart. Another way to look at working capital efficiency is comparing backlog growth to inventory growth. At the end of 2022, our Electrical and Aerospace backlog reached approximately $11 billion, which is up almost 160% since the end of 2019. However, to support this much larger backlog, inventory for our Electrical and Aerospace businesses has only increased by 38% since 2019.

移至圖表的右側。觀察營運資本效率的另一種方法是比較積壓訂單成長與庫存成長。截至 2022 年底，我們的電氣和航空航太積壓訂單達到約 110 億美元，自 2019 年底以來增長了近 160%。

The graph on the right side of the slide highlights the significant improvement since 2019. Our inventory as a percentage of backlog has been roughly cut in half from the end of 2019 to the end of 2022. We are supporting a much larger backlog with a smaller percentage of inventory.

投影片右側的圖表突顯了自 2019 年以來的顯著改善。

In summary, we have prudently prioritized taking care of our customers and capturing growth, which has required investments in working capital and has impacted free cash flow metrics in the short term. That said, we are managing working capital more efficiently.

總而言之，我們謹慎地優先考慮照顧客戶和實現成長，這需要對營運資金進行投資並在短期內影響自由現金流指標。也就是說，我們正在更有效地管理營運資金。

The 2023 guidance on Page 16 shows that we are well positioned for another strong year of financial performance. Our organic growth guidance for 2023 is a range of 7% to 9% with particular strength in Electrical Americas and Aerospace with organic growth rates of 8% to 10%. eMobility is also a standout with 35% organic growth guidance at the midpoint tied to the ramp of new programs. These organic growth rates correspond to our end-market growth assumptions that we provided on our Q3 earnings call and that Craig will update in a few slides.

第 16 頁的 2023 年指引表明，我們已做好準備，迎接又一個強勁的財務業績年度。我們對 2023 年的有機成長預期為 7% 至 9%，其中美洲電氣和航空航太業務的有機成長率將達到 8% 至 10%。 eMobility 的表現同樣突出，其中期有機成長預期為 35%，這與新專案的推出密切相關。這些自然成長率與我們在第三季財報電話會議上提供的終端市場成長假設相對應，Craig 將在幾張投影片中更新這些假設。

The end-market growth, combined with increased backlog, provides tremendous visibility and confidence in our 2023 outlook. For segment margins, our guidance range of 20.7% and 21.1% is a 70-basis points improvement at the midpoint from our 2022 all-time record margin of 20.2%. In addition to projecting strong organic growth for 2023, we're also growing margins and continue to invest in future organic growth.

終端市場的成長，加上積壓訂單的增加，為我們的 2023 年前景提供了巨大的可見性和信心。對於分部利潤率，我們的預期範圍為 20.7% 和 21.1%，比 2022 年歷史最高利潤率 20.2% 的中點高出 70 個基點。除了預測 2023 年實現強勁的有機成長外，我們還在提高利潤率並繼續投資於未來的有機成長。

Moving to Page 17. We have the balance of our guidance for 2023 and Q1. I'll touch on some highlights. For 2023, we are guiding adjusted EPS in the range of $8.04 to $8.44, which has a midpoint of $8.24 is 9% growth over 2022. We expect continued foreign exchange headwinds, which we estimate between $100 million and $200 million adverse. For operating cash flow, our guidance of $3.2 billion to $3.6 billion is a 34% increase at the midpoint over 2022. The key drivers here are a combination of higher earnings and improved working capital, particularly lower inventory levels as supply chains normalize.

轉到第 17 頁。我將談一些亮點。對於 2023 年，我們預計調整後每股收益將在 8.04 美元至 8.44 美元之間，中間值為 8.24 美元，比 2022 年增長 9%。對於營運現金流，我們預期為 32 億美元至 36 億美元，比 2022 年中位數成長 34%。

While our plan includes significant improvement in free cash flow during 2023, I'll note that we anticipate due to higher interest expense and CapEx in Q1 as well as timing-related headwinds such as taxes that free cash flow in Q1 will be relatively flat year-over-year. For share repurchases, we anticipate a range of $300 million to $600 million.

雖然我們的計劃包括在 2023 年顯著改善自由現金流，但我要指出的是，我們預計由於第一季的利息支出和資本支出增加以及稅收等與時間相關的不利因素，第一季的自由現金流將與去年同期相比相對持平。對於股票回購，我們預計範圍在 3 億至 6 億美元之間。

Moving to Q1. For Q1, we are guiding organic growth of 8% to 10%, segment margins between 19.5% and 19.9%, and adjusted EPS in a range of $1.72 to $1.82.

轉到 Q1。對於第一季度，我們預計有機成長率為 8% 至 10%，分部利潤率在 19.5% 至 19.9% 之間，調整後每股收益在 1.72 美元至 1.82 美元之間。

Now I'll hand it back to Craig to walk us through the market outlook and wrap up the presentation.

現在我將把演講交還給 Craig，讓他向我們介紹市場前景並結束演講。

Thanks, Tom. Turning to Page 18, we provide a look at our current market assumptions for the year. This chart has been updated from what we shared in our Q3 earnings call, but we really don't see any material changes here. I'll remind you that we do expect a mild recession in 2023. But given the secular growth trends that we've talked about, our strong orders and healthy backlog, we would expect to see growth in most of our end markets with six of our end markets representing some 70% of the company up nicely. And these markets are also, by the way, supported by a very strong negotiation pipeline.

謝謝，湯姆。翻到第 18 頁，我們來看看我們對今年的當前市場假設。該圖表已根據我們在第三季財報電話會議上分享的內容進行了更新，但我們確實沒有看到任何重大變化。我要提醒大家，我們確實預計 2023 年會出現溫和的經濟衰退。順便說一句，這些市場也得到了非常強大的談判管道的支持。

Of note, we now expect even stronger growth within our commercial and institutional segment given the relatively strong orders growth in the quarter and the continued strength in Dodge nonresidential construction contracts. The only down market is expected to be residential, which only accounts for 8% of our revenue. In total, we're encouraged to report that 85% of our markets are expected to see positive growth in 2023.

值得注意的是，鑑於本季訂單成長相對強勁以及道奇非住宅建築合約持續強勁，我們現在預計商業和機構部門的成長將更加強勁。預計唯一下滑的市場是住宅市場，其僅占我們收入的 8%。總體而言，我們很高興地報告，預計 2023 年 85% 的市場將實現正成長。

And lastly, let me close on Page 19 just with a few summary comments. First, I'd say our thesis for Eaton as a changed company has continued to pay even better than we expected. Second, the growth trends, the right investments have delivered better top line growth, and we continue to run the company better. We delivered 13% organic growth with record orders and backlog. And despite supply chain challenges, an inflationary environment and significant FX headwinds, 2022 was a year of record profits, record margins, record adjusted earnings and adjusted EPS.

最後，請容許我在第 19 頁發表幾則總結性評論。首先，我想說，我們對伊頓公司作為一家變革公司的預測繼續比我們預期的更好。第二，從成長趨勢來看，正確的投資帶來了更好的營收成長，我們將繼續更好地經營公司。我們憑藉創紀錄的訂單和積壓訂單實現了 13% 的有機成長。儘管面臨供應鏈挑戰、通膨環境和重大的外匯逆風，2022 年仍然是利潤、利潤率、調整後收益和調整後每股收益均創下紀錄的一年。

And I'm particularly encouraged by our 20% increase in adjusted EPS growth in Q4, which I see as a positive indicator for 2023. So despite the macro concerns, we expect 2023 to be another very strong year. And the company is on track and likely ahead of schedule for delivering our 2025 goals for revenue, margins, free cash flow and adjusted EPS.

我尤其對第四季度調整後每股收益成長 20% 感到鼓舞，我認為這是 2023 年的一個積極指標。公司正在按計劃實現 2025 年的收入、利潤、自由現金流和調整後每股收益目標，並且預計提前實現。

So I'll stop here and open things up for any questions that you may have.

所以我就講到這裡，開始回答你們可能提出的任何問題。

Thanks, Craig. (Operator Instructions) Thanks in advance for your cooperation. With that, I will turn it over to the operator to give you guys the guidance.

謝謝，克雷格。 （操作員指示）提前感謝您的合作。說完這些，我將把問題交給操作員，讓他為你們提供指導。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question is from the line of Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research.

(操作員指示)我們的第一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。

So still very strong trends in -- especially in Electrical Americas. I'm just curious, we are seeing a divergence, especially on backlog between Americas and Global. Is that primarily macro in your opinion? Or do you think there's more secular tailwinds hitting in the Americas with all the similar money coming through? And any details on the front log of projects in the Americas would be very helpful.

因此，尤其是在美洲電氣領域，趨勢仍然非常強勁。我只是好奇，我們看到了分歧，特別是美洲和全球之間的積壓。您認為這主要是宏觀的嗎？或者您認為，隨著類似資金的湧入，美洲地區將迎來更多的長期順風？有關美洲計畫前期工作的任何詳細資訊都將非常有幫助。

Yes. No, we're very pleased, obviously, with the growth that we're seeing in both our global business as well as in the Americas business, but the Americas business is clearly performing extremely well. And I think -- if you think about some of the things that we talked about, Nigel, whether it's this stimulus spending where the U.S. is really pumping fairly significant dollars into markets that are really important for us, you think about some of these large projects and let's call it, reshoring that's taking place in the U.S. market, that's certainly strengthening the U.S. business as well.

是的。不，我們顯然對全球業務和美洲業務的成長感到非常高興，但美洲業務顯然表現得非常好。而且我認為——奈傑爾，如果你思考一下我們談到的一些事情，無論是美國刺激性支出，還是向對我們非常重要的市場投入大量資金，或者想想一些大型項目，我們稱之為在美國市場進行的回流，這無疑也加強了美國業務。

So I do think there's a lot of macros today that are strong for the company across the board that are just, I'd say, intensified when you think about what's going on in the U.S. market right now. So the secular trends are everywhere. We talk about energy transition, electrification. It's taking place across the world. And I just think the U.S., because of this increased focus on infrastructure reindustrialization, is seeing an additional boost above some of the other regions of the world.

因此，我確實認為，如今有許多宏觀因素對公司整體而言都很有利，當你考慮到目前美國市場的狀況時，這些因素就會變得更加強勁。因此長期趨勢無所不在。我們討論能源轉型、電氣化。這種現像在世界各地發生。我認為，由於更加重視基礎設施再工業化，美國比世界其他地區獲得了額外的推動力。

Okay. I'm not sure if there's any particular projects you'd call out or when you call out on the front log. But my follow-up question is probably for Tom. The $70 million of corporate expenses in 2023. Maybe you could just break that out between true corporate's interest and pension.

好的。我不確定您是否會呼叫任何特定項目，或何時在前台呼叫。但我的後續問題可能是針對湯姆的。 2023 年的公司支出為 7000 萬美元。

Yes. Thanks, Nigel. Most of that is going to be in interest expense and pension with interest expense even being greater than pension. And I would caution that there's a lot of moving parts on both of those, what's going to happen to interest rate, what's going to happen to the shape of the yield curve, discount rates, those types of things. But as we're projecting it now, the headwinds are really related to interest expense and pension with interest expense being the dominant one.

是的。謝謝，奈傑爾。其中大部分將用於利息支出和退休金，利息支出甚至高於退休金。我要提醒的是，這兩者都有許多變動因素，利率將會發生什麼變化，殖利率曲線的形狀將會發生什麼變化，折現率將會發生什麼變化，諸如此類的事情。但正如我們現在預測的那樣，阻力實際上與利息支出和退休金有關，其中利息支出是主要阻力。

And the next question is from the line of Josh Pokrzywinski from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Josh Pokrzywinski。

So Craig, you mentioned kind of planning for a mild recession and guidance. Can you maybe put that in the context of backlog conversion? And maybe specifically, I think data center and commercial construction, you're starting to hear a little bit more in the way of cyclical concerns. Obviously, the orders are so strong. But how would you think of how much backlog ideally you'd be converting, if any, this year in the context of that recession outlook?

克雷格，你提到了針對溫和經濟衰退的規劃和指導。您能把它放在積壓轉換的背景下嗎？或許具體來說，我認為資料中心和商業建築，你會開始聽到更多關於週期性擔憂的聲音。顯然，訂單非常強勁。但是，在經濟衰退的背景下，您如何看待今年理想情況下可以轉換多少積壓訂單（如果有的話）？

Yes. I appreciate the question, Josh. And we've obviously spent a lot of time internally trying to sort that one through ourselves. And I would tell you that orders have just stayed so strong in general. It's really tough to really put a finger on how much of this very large backlog that we'll be able to convert. It certainly will depend upon what happens during the course of 2023.

是的。我很感謝你提出這個問題，喬希。顯然，我們內部已經花費了大量時間來嘗試自己解決這個問題。我想說的是，訂單總體來說一直保持強勁。確實很難準確地指出我們能夠轉換多少如此大量的積壓訂單。這當然取決於 2023 年期間發生的情況。

And I can just tell you what's actually baked into our forecast for the year is relatively modest reductions in backlog, if at all. Because at this point, it looks like these markets, driven by the secular growth trends that we talked about, are going to stay stronger for even longer than what we anticipated.

我只能告訴你們，我們對今年的預測實際上已經考慮到了積壓訂單的減少幅度相對溫和，甚至會有減少。因為目前看來，受我們所談論的長期成長趨勢推動的這些市場將比我們預期的保持更強勁的勢頭。

And so at this point, we'll have to wait and see. But if we end up with perhaps a little bit of a respite here in terms of some of the order intake or some of the supply chain challenges, we'll be able to convert more, and that could be upside on the revenue side. But at this point, we're not anticipating that we're going to be burning a lot of backlogs.

因此，現在我們只能拭目以待。但如果我們在部分訂單量或供應鏈挑戰方面能獲得些許喘息，我們將能夠轉化更多產品，這對收入方面來說可能是有利的。但在這一點上，我們預計我們不會處理大量積壓的工作。

Got it. That's helpful. Then just a follow-up. Really appreciate kind of the TAM expansion color that you gave from some of the stimulus. I know not a lot of folks have taken a stab at that. I remember from the Analyst Day correctly, I think you sized the TAM for Eaton before that -- in kind of the high $50s billion.

知道了。這很有幫助。接下來只是後續行動。真的很欣賞您從某些刺激中給出的 TAM 擴展顏色。我知道沒有多少人嘗試過這一點。我記得在分析師日之前，您就已經估算出伊頓的 TAM 規模——大約是 500 億美元。

Does this mean that we kind of take this extra $11 billion to $14 billion divided by 5, because it's over 5 years and you have sort of 4% uplift to growth like -- or is this an apples and oranges kind of discussion? Just any context how the TAM increase relates to kind of the growth uptick would be helpful.

這是否意味著，我們將這額外的 110 億美元至 140 億美元除以 5，因為這是 5 年的時間，並且增長率約為 4%——或者這只是蘋果和橘子之間的討論？只要了解 TAM 增加與成長上升之間的關聯，就會很有幫助。

I think your simple logic there is the right logic that based upon this stimulus spending, these are essentially incremental dollars that we would expect to be going into these end markets, which will increase the size of the TAM in our served market. And so I think your kind of high-level assumption is the right working assumption to have.

我認為你所說的簡單邏輯是正確的，即基於這項刺激支出，這些基本上是我們預計將進入這些終端市場的增量資金，這將增加我們所服務市場的 TAM 規模。因此我認為你的這種高階假設是正確的工作假設。

And obviously, there'll be lots of discussions around how it plays out and over what period of time do these investments play out. Is it 3 years, 5 years? I mean, what's the time frame? I think it will be the more difficult call to make, but it absolutely increases the size of the market.

顯然，人們會就其如何發揮作用以及這些投資將在什麼時間段內發揮作用進行大量討論。是3年還是5年？我的意思是，時間框架是怎麼樣的？我認為這將是一個更困難的決定，但它絕對會增加市場的規模。

Yes. And just to add a little bit more color on that, I mean going back to the prepared remarks, if you look at our major project U.S. pipeline, many of the end markets quarter-over-quarter are up over 100%. And that's also translating to order volume even higher than that. So we're just seeing some good tailwinds on these major projects.

是的。為了對此進行更詳細的說明，我的意思是回到準備好的評論，如果您看看我們的主要美國項目管道，許多終端市場環比增長超過 100%。這也意味著訂單量甚至會更高。因此，我們看到這些重大項目出現了一些積極的進展。

Yes. Just to build on Tom's point, as I think everybody's aware, we obviously have sales and orders, but we also look at negotiations and our negotiation pipeline. And as Tom mentioned, the negotiation pipeline being up more than 100%. And I'd say that is supported by the other data point that I talked about, which is essentially nonresidential construction contracts, which are also up quite dramatically through, once again, the fourth quarter. So we continue to see very good strength in these underlying markets, especially in the Americas.

是的。只是為了進一步闡述湯姆的觀點，我想大家都知道，我們顯然有銷售和訂單，但我們也會考慮談判和談判管道。正如湯姆所提到的，談判管道增加了 100% 以上。我想說的是，我剛才談到的另一個數據點也支持了這一點，這些數據基本上是非住宅建築合同，在第四季度，非住宅建築合同也再次大幅增加。因此，我們繼續看到這些基礎市場，尤其是美洲市場的強勁實力。

And the next question is from Andrew Obin from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯‧奧賓 (Andrew Obin)。

So the first question, I guess, we've been getting incoming calls on data centers. And just if you can talk as to how much visibility do you have where you are in terms of capacity for '23? Do you have any left? And the new one we're getting was all the focus on ChatGPT, right? Are you getting any inquiries sort of related to AI and more computing sort of required to do that? And if you have any conversations related today at the interest of that topic.

所以我想第一個問題是，我們一直在接到有關資料中心的來電。您能否談談您對 23 年產能的預期有多大？你還有剩餘的嗎？我們獲得的新關注點全部集中在 ChatGPT 上，對嗎？您是否收到過有關人工智慧以及實現該目的所需的更多計算方面的詢問？如果您今天有任何與該主題相關的對話。

Yes. We -- as you can imagine, we anticipated this question because we too are reading some of the conflicting headlines in terms of what's going on in the data center market. And then as we talked about, our data center business continues to be very strong. And what you talked about, Josh, in the context of AI and these other various technology platforms that continue to be rolled out. That's just, once again, generating the need for more data, more processing and ultimately more data centers.

是的。你可以想像，我們預料到了這個問題，因為我們也讀到了一些關於資料中心市場動態的相互矛盾的報道。正如我們剛才所說，我們的資料中心業務持續保持強勁。喬希，您談到了在人工智慧和其他各種不斷推出的技術平台的背景下的問題。這再一次產生了對更多數據、更多處理以及最終更多數據中心的需求。

And I know there's a little bit of a cause for some concern given what some of the hyperscale guys did with respect to their own outlook. But I can tell you that for us, the data center market continues to be very strong. And even the hyperscale guys are still talking about mid-teens kind of growth over the next 3 to 4 years. And so those are very strong numbers. And we haven't talked about autonomous driving and expansion of 5G. And every device that we make today and that is made by every company continues to get more intelligent, driving a greater need for data and processing.

而且我知道，考慮到一些超大規模企業對自己前景的看法，確實存在一些值得擔憂的地方。但我可以告訴你，對我們來說，資料中心市場仍然非常強勁。甚至超大規模資料中心營運商也仍在談論未來 3 至 4 年內中等規模的成長。這些數字非常強勁。我們還沒有談論自動駕駛和5G的擴展。如今，我們製造的每台設備以及每家公司生產的每台設備都在變得越來越智能，從而推動了對數據和處理的需求不斷增加。

And so we think the data center market is going to be a great market for quite a number of years to come, and it's supported by our order intake and our negotiations. To your question specifically on capacity, at this point, we really don't have a lot of spare capacity. We're making investments to expand our capacity. But at this point, we have lots of visibility into the data center market, and it feels good.

因此，我們認為資料中心市場在未來相當長一段時間內都將是一個巨大的市場，而我們的訂單量和談判也為這個市場提供了支持。關於產能的具體問題，目前，我們確實沒有太多的閒置產能。我們正在進行投資以擴大我們的產能。但目前，我們對資料中心市場有了很大的了解，感覺很好。

Yes. I would also point out...

是的。我還要指出...

And just -- yes, sorry.

是的，很抱歉。

Oops, sorry, Andrew. I would also point out that this isn't only an America's phenomenon. We're seeing strong order growth across the entire globe.

哎呀，對不起，安德魯。我還要指出，這不只是美國的現象。我們看到全球訂單強勁成長。

And just a follow-up question. And at both stimulus, I think, related to IRA but also what's happening with LNG in Europe, what's the latest out of Crouse-Hinds? Because I think it is exposed to all these trends. And also have -- does Crouse-Hinds benefit from any decarbonization efforts, hydrogen, carbon sequestration? Just as I said, just maybe talk a little bit about what you're seeing in Crouse-Hinds.

這只是一個後續問題。我認為，這兩項刺激計劃都與 IRA 有關，而且歐洲液化天然氣的情況也與此有關，克勞斯-海因茲 (Crouse-Hinds) 的最新舉措是什麼？因為我認為它受到所有這些趨勢的影響。而且—克勞斯-海因茲 (Crouse-Hinds) 是否從任何脫碳努力、氫能、碳封存中受益？正如我所說的，也許可以稍微談談你在克勞斯-海因茲看到的情況。

Yes. Appreciate the question. The first thing I'll just maybe give the team a little bit of a news announcement that we've changed the name. What was formerly known as Crouse-Hinds and B-Line is now we're calling it our global energy infrastructure business, so GEIS. And so just if you hear us talk about GEIS, that's the formerly known Crouse-Hinds and B-Line business.

是的。我很感謝你提出這個問題。首先我要向團隊通報一個訊息，我們已經改名了。我們以前稱之為 Crouse-Hinds 和 B-Line，現在稱之為我們的全球能源基礎設施業務，即 GEIS。所以，如果您聽到我們談論 GEIS，那就是以前眾所周知的 Crouse-Hinds 和 B-Line 業務。

And I'd say absolutely, I mean, as the name implies, anything that has to do with energy infrastructure is a real positive for our GEIS business. And we would expect that, that business continues to perform well as we continue to see investments in energy. And certainly, as we look at hydrogen and other new greener forms of energy, all of the infrastructure that's required to support those investments will be very positive for our GEIS business as well.

我想說絕對如此，顧名思義，任何與能源基礎設施有關的事情對於我們的 GEIS 業務來說都是真正的利好。我們預計，隨著我們繼續看到能源方面的投資，該業務將繼續表現良好。當然，當我們關注氫能和其他新的綠色能源時，支持這些投資所需的所有基礎設施也將對我們的 GEIS 業務產生非常積極的影響。

Yes. I mean, for example, if you look at trailing 12-month orders in GEIS and utilities, they were close to 30%, very strong.

是的。我的意思是，例如，如果您查看 GEIS 和公用事業過去 12 個月的訂單，它們接近 30%，非常強勁。

The next question is from the line of Stephen Volkmann from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Stephen Volkmann。

Craig, maybe just start off, could you provide a little bit more color on what you're seeing in commercial and institutional that made you sort of bump that market outlook up?

克雷格，也許只是開始，你能否提供更多關於你在商業和機構方面看到的情況，讓你提升市場前景？

Yes. And I'd say, once again, the very minimum, we saw very strong order intake in Q4. But also, we talked a little bit what's going on generally in nonres construction. And we look at the commercial negotiate nonres commercial contracts, construction contracts, just really posting pretty significant numbers in the fourth quarter.

是的。我想說的是，至少，我們在第四季度看到了非常強勁的訂單量。但同時，我們也談論了一些非住宅建設的一般情況。我們來看看商業談判的非住宅商業合約、建築合同，第四季的數字確實相當可觀。

And so we thought that, that market would be positive. But given the activity level, our negotiations in that segment as well as what's going on more broadly in the industry and some of the macro data, it caused us to be even more positive on that market. And so it's, I'd say, a good news story. We'll wait and see how it plays out in total. But certainly, the data that we saw in the fourth quarter was definitely more positive than what we anticipated.

因此我們認為那個市場將會是正面的。但考慮到活動水平、我們在該領域的談判以及行業更廣泛的狀況和一些宏觀數據，我們對該市場更加樂觀。所以我想說這是一個好消息。我們將拭目以待，看看最終結果如何。但可以肯定的是，我們在第四季度看到的數據肯定比我們預期的更為積極。

Okay. Great. And then I know it's early for this question. But Tom, since you brought it up, I think you mentioned something about breakout performance in 2024. Not sure if that was sort of military aero-specific. But just can you expand on that a little bit?

好的。偉大的。我知道現在問這個問題還為時過早。但是湯姆，既然你提起這個，我想你提到了一些關於 2024 年突破性表現的事情。但可以稍微詳細闡述嗎？

Yes. No, it is a little early, but I walked into it and I mentioned it in the prepared remarks. We're just seeing significant order growth in military OEM. And we've been waiting to see that just given what's happening in the world. And now it's starting to come through in all of our order metrics, whether it's trailing 12 months or Q4 year-over-year or even sequentially, up very, very high numbers.

是的。不，有點早，​​但是我走進去並在準備好的發言中提到了這一點。我們看到軍事原始設備製造商的訂單顯著成長。鑑於世界上正在發生的事情，我們一直在等待看到這一點。現在，這一趨勢開始體現在我們所有的訂單指標中，無論是過去 12 個月，還是第四季的同比，甚至是連續成長，數字都非常非常高。

In fact, our military OE orders for the last 12 months was up 45%-ish.

事實上，我們過去 12 個月的軍事 OE 訂單增加了 45% 左右。

Exactly and 80% in the quarter.

確實，本季為 80%。

In the quarter. So really strong.

在本季度。真的太強了。

Really strong, yes.

是的，真的很強。

And given the lead times in that business, it will certainly support the growth assumption that we have baked in for 2023. But we do expect that 2024 will be a really strong year.

考慮到該業務的交付週期，它肯定會支持我們對 2023 年的成長假設。

And it comes back to the way Craig started out the presentation of what these megatrends. And maybe we'll have pockets of weakness here and there, but the portfolio is so sound that -- we've also got the aero megatrend with pent-up demand. We've got military that's growing. We have pent-up demand with vehicles. So we're really not susceptible to any one small thing that's going to knock us down. It's a very robust portfolio.

這又回到了 Craig 最初介紹這些大趨勢的方式。也許我們會在某些方面出現疲軟跡象，但投資組合非常穩健，我們也掌握了航空大趨勢和被壓抑的需求。我們的軍隊不斷壯大。我們對車輛有著大量未被滿足的需求。因此，我們實際上不會受到任何可能擊倒我們的小事的影響。這是一個非常強大的投資組合。

The next question is from the line of Jeff Sprague from Vertical Research.

下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Jeff Sprague。

I was wondering if we could just drill into Global Electrical a little bit more, just the quarter itself and then the outlook. Could you possibly elaborate a little bit more on what happened in the margins in the quarter? And I guess the perspective of my question is, it was a pretty sizable sequential step-down in margins on similar revenues, and it looked like similar FX to me sequentially. Maybe I'm wrong there.

我想知道我們是否可以更深入地了解全球電氣，只是本季本身，然後是前景。能否詳細說明本季的利潤狀況？我想我的問題的觀點是，這是在類似收入的情況下利潤率的一次相當大的連續下降，並且在我看來，這似乎是連續的外匯交易。也許我錯了。

But is there something else going on with mix or some other factor in the margins in the quarter? And then I was wondering if you could also just address the top line outlook in Global. The 4% to 6% is somewhat moderating. Just maybe a little color on the underlying demand trends you're seeing there or if anything is going on in the channels.

但是，產品組合或其他因素是否也影響了本季的利潤率？然後我想知道您是否也可以談談全球的營收前景。 4%至6%的比例略有緩和。也許只是對您看到的潛在需求趨勢或管道中發生的任何事情的一些了解。

Yes. Thanks, Jeff. Let me start out with talking about the Americas margins. I mean the story is really when you look at it compared to Electrical...

是的。謝謝，傑夫。首先我想談談美洲的邊緣問題。我的意思是，當你將它與 Electrical 進行比較時，這個故事確實是…

Global margins. Global margins.

全球利潤。全球利潤。

Yes. No -- oh, yes. We have 20% in the Americas volume growth. We had 8% in Electrical Global. So there's the real disparity going on there. And if you look closer into Global as well, we had some transactional FX issue, not necessarily translational but transactional, where we still have dollar-denominated costs. And with the dollar weakening, that hurt us there. So that was part of also the compare and the hurting of the margins on Electrical Global.

是的。不——噢，是的。我們在美洲的銷量成長了20%。我們持有 Electrical Global 8% 的股份。因此，那裡確實存在著差異。如果你仔細觀察全球，你會發現我們有一些交易外匯問題，不一定是翻譯問題，而是交易問題，我們仍然有以美元計價的成本。隨著美元走弱，這對我們造成了傷害。所以這也是 Electrical Global 利潤率比較和受損的一部分。

And on the growth side of the equation, I'd say that we're looking at kind of mid-single-digit growth in our Global business. And I'd say in the face of what we're saying today is likely typical recession, we think mid-single-digit growth is the right kind of place to kind of be thinking about that business.

從成長的角度來看，我認為我們的全球業務正在實現中等個位數的成長。我想說，面對我們今天所說的典型的經濟衰退，我們認為中等個位數的成長才是考慮這項業務的正確水準。

Now once again, if the world turns out to be a little happier than what we're anticipating and on the margin, I would say that I think we're all feeling a little better today about 2023 than we were maybe a month ago. And we have seen even in the European market, on a relative basis, some strengthening. Those numbers could be better. But at this point, given our current assumptions, we think mid-single-digit growth for our Global business is the right place to kind of be thinking about it.

現在再說一次，如果世界變得比我們預期的更幸福一點，我想說，我們今天對 2023 年的感覺會比一個月前好一點。我們也看到，即使在歐洲市場，相對而言也出現了一些增強的跡象。這些數字還可以更好。但目前，根據我們目前的假設，我們認為全球業務實現中等個位數成長是正確的考慮水準。

And the other one I would say just on the margin that could be slightly better than what we're currently thinking is what's happening today in China. Nobody anticipated COVID running through China as quickly as it did. It had an impact in Q4 for sure. Part of maybe the inefficiency challenges we had in Global was the fact that we had some unanticipated disruptions coming out of Asia, coming out of China, specifically around COVID. But at this juncture, they're through it, and they got through it much quicker than anyone imagined. And we think on the margin, China and Asia could be stronger than what we anticipated.

我想說的另一個情況可能比我們目前所想的要好一些，那就是今天中國正在發生的情況。沒有人預料到新冠肺炎疫情會在中國蔓延得如此之快。這肯定會對第四季產生影響。我們在全球面臨的效率低下挑戰的部分原因可能是來自亞洲、中國的一些意外幹擾，尤其是圍繞新冠疫情的干擾。但在這個節骨眼上，他們已經渡過了難關，而且比任何人想像的都要快得多。我們認為，中國和亞洲的表現可能比我們預期的更強。

Right. Yes. Thanks for the assist, Craig. Yes, coming back to the margin question, in addition to transactional FX, Jeff, we also saw weakness in China opening up. So APAC was weaker than we had expected.

正確的。是的。謝謝您的幫助，Craig。是的，回到保證金問題，傑夫，除了交易外匯之外，我們還看到中國開放的疲軟。因此，亞太地區的表現比我們預期的要弱。

Great. And then just as a follow-up. Can you just -- sorry if you said it, I missed it. But I know you're not going to give us price. But when I look at the margin bridge for next year, what does that kind of assume for the price/cost gap there? I assume there is some lift. Maybe you could give us a little perspective on what you're expecting.

偉大的。然後只是作為後續行動。你能不能——抱歉，如果你說了，我錯過了。但我知道你不會給我們價格。但是，當我展望明年的利潤率時，那裡的價格/成本差距是怎麼樣的呢？我認為存在一些升力。也許您可以稍微告訴我們一下您的期望。

Yes. We're not going to break it out specifically as per our policy. What I will say is that we expect to continue to effectively manage price/cost. It's something we really focus on, and we expect to manage it effectively.

是的。按照我們的政策，我們不會具體分解這一點。我要說的是，我們希望繼續有效地管理價格/成本。這是我們真正關注的事情，並且我們希望有效地管理它。

And the only thing I would add to what Tom is that I would not anticipate it would be accretive to margins, right? So clearly, there's still inflation that we have in the business. We are more than offsetting inflation. But in terms of how it's impacting the margins in the business, I would not expect that it would be accretive to margins. That's really a function of what we're doing to drive improvements in efficiencies as well as the volume lift that we're getting from the company overall.

我唯一想補充的是，湯姆所說的話，我不會預期它會增加利潤，對嗎？顯然，我們的業務中仍然存在通貨膨脹。我們所做的不只是抵消通貨膨脹。但就其對業務利潤率的影響而言，我不認為它會增加利潤。這實際上是我們為提高效率和提高公司整體銷售所採取的措施的結果。

The next question is from the line of Nicole DeBlase from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase。

Maybe just starting with channel inventory levels, Craig. Have definitely heard some concern about distributors maybe having a little bit of excess inventory or inventory building. What are you guys seeing in your channels within Electrical?

也許只是從渠道庫存水準開始，Craig。確實聽到有人擔心分銷商可能有過多的庫存或庫存堆積。你們在 Electrical 頻道中看到了什麼？

Yes. I'd say -- in aggregate, Nicole, I would say that we've not seen that nor have we heard that from our big channel partners in aggregate. Today, if you look at -- once again, if you think about our order intake, our growth in backlog and you throw that up against -- Tom did a great job of laying out what it's meant in the context of our own inventory. And while we're building inventory, we're actually increasing our efficiency as it relates to a forward view of revenue.

是的。我想說 - 總的來說，妮可，我想說我們沒有看到這種情況，也沒有從我們的大通路合作夥伴那裡聽到這種情況。今天，如果你再看一下，如果你考慮我們的訂單量、積壓訂單的增長情況，並將其與此進行對比，湯姆很好地闡述了它在我們自己的庫存背景下的含義。在我們建立庫存的同時，我們實際上也在提高效率，因為這與未來收入有關。

And I think that would be true for many of our distributors as well given the strength in the underlying market, certainly in the Americas. I would say that if you take a look at Europe specifically, while we're still seeing growth in our own orders in Europe, there has been a little bit of a slowdown in Europe. And while still growth, we have seen a little bit of a slowdown and a bit of an inventory adjustment that's taking place with some of our European distributors.

我認為，鑑於基礎市場（尤其是美洲市場）的實力，對於我們的許多經銷商而言，情況也是如此。我想說的是，如果你特別看一下歐洲，雖然我們仍然看到歐洲自己的訂單在成長，但歐洲的成長已經放緩。儘管仍在成長，但我們看到一些歐洲分銷商的成長放緩，庫存也進行了一定調整。

And I think -- China, I think, will be going in the other direction as that market comes through COVID and begin to grow again. So very slightly regionally in aggregate. I'd say no inventory destocking to speak of at all. Regionally, a little bit of destocking in Europe with the U.S., and perhaps Asia market is still a little bit tight.

我認為，隨著中國市場度過新冠疫情並開始再次成長，中國將朝著另一個方向發展。因此從總體上看，區域差異非常小。我想說，根本就不存在去庫存的情況。從區域來看，歐洲和美國的庫存都有所減少，而亞洲市場或許還是有點緊張。

Yes. Just to punch a specific number Nicole, I gave some numbers on the one chart, but our average quarterly orders in 2022 versus 2020 are up 55%, very big number.

是的。只是為了指出一個具體的數字，妮可，我在一張圖表上給出了一些數字，但我們 2022 年的平均季度訂單與 2020 年相比增長了 55%，這是一個非常大的數字。

Got it. And I guess, looking at the guidance for the first quarter, you got organic decelerating to the 8% to 10% range versus 15% in 4Q. I guess, can you just talk through some of the segment-level drivers there? And is that mostly a function of just tougher comps?

知道了。我想，從第一季的預期來看，有機成長率將放緩至 8% 到 10% 的範圍，而第四季為 15%。我想，您能簡單談談那裡的一些細分級別的驅動因素嗎？這主要是因為組合更強大嗎？

Yes. The revenue guide for Q1 versus Q4, I'd just say, one, we're anniversarying bigger numbers in Q1 last year. So certainly, it's the anniversary effect of it. We certainly have gotten quite a bit of price during the course of 2022 to offset inflation. So on a relative basis, you don't maybe have as much lift on a quarter-over-quarter basis in price. And I'd say those are really the two.

是的。關於第一季與第四季的營收指南，我只想說，第一，去年第一季的營收數字更高。所以可以肯定，這是周年紀念效應。我們在 2022 年期間確實獲得了相當多的價格來抵消通貨膨脹。因此，相對而言，價格環比上漲可能不會那麼大。我想說這確實是兩者的結合。

And then there's this whole question around recession and how that's going to impact confidence in the outlook. And so lots of uncertainty. If you think about our growth for the year, Q1 is very much aligned at 9% at the midpoint with our growth for the year. And we'll see how the year unfolds, but those are primarily the reasons.

然後還有有關經濟衰退以及經濟衰退將如何影響對前景的信心的問題。因此存在著許多不確定性。如果你考慮我們今年的成長情況，那麼第一季的 9% 的成長率與全年的成長率非常一致。我們將拭目以待今年的情況將如何發展，但主要原因就是這些。

The next question is from the line of Scott Davis from Melius Research.

下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

Guys, you've been a little quiet on the M&A side since the Royal Power deal, which is fine, but there wasn't really anything in your slides on kind of target buybacks or anything where you're prioritizing capital allocation for '23. Can you comment on that, please?

夥計們，自從 Royal Power 交易以來，你們在併購方面一直比較安靜，這很好，但你們的幻燈片中並沒有關於目標回購或優先考慮23年資本配置的任何內容。您能對此發表評論嗎？

Yes. Sure, Scott. Yes, nothing really in the prepared remarks because we're staying the course with our same capital allocation tenets. Obviously, first, we're prioritizing organic growth, which we think is so important, especially with all the megatrends and secular tailwinds that we're right in the middle of. We're going to pay a competitive dividend as well. It's important to our investors.

是的。當然，斯科特。是的，準備好的發言中確實沒有任何內容，因為我們堅持相同的資本配置原則。顯然，首先，我們優先考慮有機成長，我們認為這非常重要，特別是在我們正處於所有大趨勢和長期順風之中的情況下。我們還將支付有競爭力的股息。這對我們的投資者來說很重要。

Having said that, we continue to be in the market and look for good acquisitions. We're also -- if you noted, we're also shrinking the tail in terms of divestitures. We had a small one that we did in the quarter. So we're actively doing that.

話雖如此，我們仍會繼續留在市場上並尋找好的收購機會。如果你注意到的話，我們也在縮小資產剝離的尾部。我們在本季做過一個小的。因此我們正在積極地這樣做。

And then in terms of buying back shares, this year, we did about $290 million. We guided $300 million to $600 million, and we'll be optimistic -- I mean, opportunistic there as appropriate. But it really hasn't changed. We're in the market. We're always looking. And yes, staying the course on our capital allocation tenets.

在回購股票方面，今年我們回購了約 2.9 億美元。我們預計資金規模為 3 億至 6 億美元，我們將保持樂觀 - 我的意思是，在適當的時候抓住機會。但實際上它並沒有改變。我們已經進入市場。我們一直在尋找。是的，我們將繼續堅持資本配置原則。

And if I can just emphasize the point that Tom made is that we have just a lot of organic growth opportunities out there more than ever in terms of the history of the company. And so as we think about growing the enterprise, we don't need to go out and do acquisitions to grow the enterprise. There's plenty of organic growth opportunities in front of us that we're investing to support.

我可以強調一下湯姆提出的觀點，那就是從公司的歷史來看，我們擁有比以往更多的有機成長機會。因此，當我們考慮發展企業時，我們不需要出去進行收購來發展企業。我們面前有大量的有機成長機會，我們正在進行投資以支持這些機會。

And -- but we'll continue to be opportunistic. If we see something that helps us strategically, maybe geographically -- one of the things that you've seen us do over the course of the last 12 months is we've really, I'd say, shored up our strategic position in China. We've entered into a number of joint ventures, and that's really the way we're trying to play the China card right now given some of the risks and uncertainties. But we entered into a number of really interesting joint ventures with local companies who have a strong position in the local market.

並且——但我們將繼續抓住機會。如果我們看到某些東西在戰略上、例如在地理上對我們有幫助——我想說，過去 12 個月裡，我們所做的一件事就是，我們確實鞏固了我們在中國的戰略地位。我們已經建立了多家合資企業，考慮到目前存在的一些風險和不確定性，這實際上是我們目前打中國牌的方式。但我們與在當地市場佔有強勢地位的當地公司建立了許多非常有趣的合資企業。

We've taken a minority position. We will basically sell those products in markets outside of China, but they really do fill some really key product gaps in emerging markets in low-cost countries. And so yes, we've done some things on the JV side that I think shore up our position where we've had gaps, but there are just so many organic growth opportunities out there that we're pursuing. That really is the priority.

我們採取了少數派立場。我們基本上會在中國以外的市場銷售這些產品，但它們確實填補了低成本國家新興市場中一些非常關鍵的產品空白。所以是的，我們在合資方面做了一些事情，我認為這些事情鞏固了我們的地位，彌補了我們的不足，但我們正在追求許多有機成長機會。這確實是當務之急。

Yes. And just to punctuate that, Scott, with a number. If you look at our backlog for Electrical and Aerospace back at the end of Q4 in '19, it was roughly a little over $4 billion. And as we said in the prepared remarks, we're at $11 billion now. So there's a lot of food on the table.

是的。史考特，為了強調這一點，我舉一個數字的例子。如果您查看 2019 年第四季末電氣和航空航太領域的積壓訂單，大約略高於 40 億美元。正如我們在準備好的演講中所說，現在我們的資金已經達到了 110 億美元。因此桌子上有很多食物。

The next question is from Julian Mitchell from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Just wanted to understand on that cash flow guide. I think it's at the midpoint guided up about $900 million year-on-year. Net income is about $300 million, I think, of increase. So that sort of the delta of $600 million there. Is that sort of just the $500 million miss from '22? I'm assuming you capture it in '23. Is that how we should think about it? And maybe on the working capital point, is it all inventory kind of shouldering that delta? Or is receivables or payables doing anything interesting?

只是想了解現金流指南。我認為，這一數字處於中間水平，較上年同期增加約 9 億美元。我認為淨收入將增加約 3 億美元。因此那裡的差額為 6 億美元。這是否就相當於 22 年錯失的 5 億美元？我假設你是在 '23 年捕獲它的。我們該這樣思考嗎？也許從營運資本角度來看，是否所有庫存都在承擔這筆差額？或是應收帳款或應付帳款在做什麼有趣的事？

Yes. Thanks, Julian. Just a slight nuance in terms of how you characterized it, I mean, while we did miss -- if we go back to that one chart, if we were able to foretell the future perfectly in terms of the order growth in the backlog, we might have guided a different number there.

是的。謝謝，朱利安。只是在您如何描述它方面有一點點細微的差別，我的意思是，雖然我們確實錯過了 - 如果我們回到那張圖表，如果我們能夠根據積壓訂單的增長完美地預測未來，我們可能會引導出一個不同的數字。

But coming back to the bridge from '22 to '23, in addition to the impact of higher income, it's going to be working capital performance. As we noted in our prepared remarks, we can do a lot better there. It's primarily inventory, but I would tell you it's not just inventory. We think we can do better on DSO and collections. We think we can do better on DPO as well. I think we've got a great continuous improvement focus in this area. We know we're not where we want to be. As we said, we invested prudently, but we can do a lot better, and we will do better this year in terms of net working capital.

但回到22年到23年的橋樑，除了更高收入的影響之外，還會有營運資本的表現。正如我們在準備好的演講中指出的那樣，我們可以在這方面做得更好。它主要是庫存，但我想告訴你它不僅僅是庫存。我們認為我們可以在 DSO 和收款方面做得更好。我們認為我們在 DPO 方面也可以做得更好。我認為我們在這個領域非常注重持續改善。我們知道我們還沒有達到我們想要的境界。正如我們所說，我們謹慎投資，但我們可以做得更好，今年我們在淨營運資本方面會做得更好。

That's clear. And just my quick follow-up, you talked about the first quarter sort of organic sales segment a little bit. Maybe on the margins. So I think you're calling for the segment margin to drop sequentially about 1 point from fourth quarter into first quarter. Are we assuming kind of every segment has that similar drop and then sort of builds from there through the year? Anything to call out on that front, the sort of margins as we start the year and then move on by segment?

這很清楚。我的快速跟進問題是，您談到了第一季的有機銷售部分。或許在邊緣。因此，我認為您認為分部利潤率將從第四季度到第一季連續下降約 1 個百分點。我們是否可以假設每個細分市場都會出現類似的下降，然後從那裡開始全年逐漸上升？這方面有什麼需要注意的嗎？

Yes. I don't think there's anything particular to call out. I mean I would take you to our full year guide where we're taking margins and we're growing them 70 bps overall. And we've got margin growth in every single segment. Our EPS cadence is going to match our historical cadence of 45-55 to first half and second half. So I don't think there's anything specific to read into Q1.

是的。我認為沒有什麼特別值得指出的。我的意思是，我會帶你去看看我們的全年指南，我們的利潤率整體成長了 70 個基點。我們每個細分市場的利潤都實現了成長。我們的每股盈餘節奏將與上半年和下半年 45-55 的歷史節奏相符。所以我認為，對於 Q1 沒有特別需要解讀的。

Other than the volume piece, Julian. As you know, there's certain cyclicality that we have in our various businesses. And that's generally the reason why the margins generally drop between Q4 and Q1. And to the extent that we have more cyclicality in one business or the other, you could see a slightly different play-through by segment, but that's really the primary issue.

除了卷狀部分，朱利安。如您所知，我們的各項業務都有一定的週期性。這通常是為什麼第四季和第一季之間利潤率普遍下降的原因。而且，如果我們某一業務的周期性更強，那麼你可能會看到各個細分市場的表現略有不同，但這確實是主要問題。

Yes. And that's a good point, Craig. I think we see that in terms of our aero segment where we go down in Electrical and Electrical Americas as well, too.

是的。克雷格，你的觀點很正確。我認為，從我們的航空領域來看，我們在電氣和美洲電氣領域的表現也同樣下降了。

Yes.

是的。

The next question is from David Raso from Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 David Raso。

The quarterly cadence of the organic sales growth, the 9% we discussed in the first quarter, the way you're thinking about the rest of the year, is it all just sort of at the same kind of 7.5% level? I'm just trying to get a sense in particular about some markets where there's a little more concern about a slowdown in the back half then maybe other areas that could be accelerating. So can you first confirm, is that sort of how you think of the cadence?

我們在第一季討論的有機銷售成長的季度節奏是 9%，您對今年剩餘時間的預期是否都處於 7.5% 的水平？我只是想要特別了解一些市場的情況，這些市場對下半年經濟放緩的擔憂比其他地區可能加速。那麼您可以先確認一下，這就是您對節奏的看法嗎？

Yes. I think that's a fair way to think about the cadence. I mean, I think the great news for us is we're sitting on very large backlogs. And so to the extent that we had a little bit of an air pocket at some place, we can live off of our backlog for a very long time before it would actually impact our revenues.

是的。我認為這是思考節奏的一個公平方式。我的意思是，我認為對我們來說好消息是我們有大量的積壓訂單。因此，如果我們在某個地方出現了一點喘息機會，我們可以靠積壓訂單維持很長一段時間，直到它真正影響到我們的收入。

And so I think as we think about the year, we still think it's a year where we're constrained, where -- but for labor constraints, capacity constraints, supply constraints, those numbers would be bigger than what we're currently forecasting. And so I do think a similar pattern of growth is a good placeholder for now in terms of the way you should think about the year.

因此，我認為，當我們回顧這一年時，我們仍然認為這是我們受到限制的一年，但對於勞動力限制、產能限制、供應限製而言，這些數字將比我們目前預測的要大。因此我確實認為，就您思考這一年的方式而言，類似的成長模式目前是一個很好的佔位符。

And within Vehicle, the thought of auto sort of later in the year and truck later in the year, the interplay there? And a similar question on Electrical Global. Europe so far is proving a bit resilient, how to think about China and Europe in the back half of the year? Just those two interplays in those two divisions. I'll leave it at that.

在車輛領域，汽車和卡車分別在今年稍後推出的想法，會如何相互作用？在 Electrical Global 上也有類似的問題。歐洲目前展現一定韌性，您如何看待今年下半年中國和歐洲的表現？這兩個部門之間只是相互作用。我就不說了。

As I mentioned in my commentary, I think we're incrementally more optimistic on China. They came through COVID much quicker than what we anticipated. And the Zero COVID policy went away overnight, it felt like. And we're starting to see the Chinese government kind of reignite the economy over there.

正如我在評論中提到的，我認為我們對中國越來越樂觀。他們戰勝 COVID 的速度比我們預期的要快得多。感覺就像零新冠政策一夜之間就消失了。我們開始看到中國政府正在重振那裡的經濟。

And so I think as the year builds, we think that we -- that China, and therefore, Asia continues to strengthen. It has a relatively better second half than the first half. I think Europe is a little bit more difficult of a call to make. Europe, as you noted, has continued to hang in there and be better than what we anticipated for most of 2022. And we're incrementally, I'd say, sitting here today more positive on 2023.

因此我認為隨著時間的推移，中國以及亞洲將繼續增強。後半部相對來說比前半部好一些。我認為對歐洲做出決定有點困難。正如您所說，歐洲一直堅持下去，並且比我們對 2022 年大部分時間的預期要好。

So difficult to really call whether or not we're going to see a different first half versus the second half in Europe. We're kind of planning for steady as she goes and more of a balanced view with respect to the year-over-year growth.

因此很難判斷歐洲上半場和下半場是否有所不同。我們計劃在她前進的道路上保持穩定，並對同比增長持更加平衡的看法。

The next question is from Chris Snyder from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的克里斯·史奈德。

Craig, I wanted to follow up on your comment in the prepared remarks that you would be surprised if the company does not beat the 5% to 8% annual growth targets laid out at the Investor Day. Does this just reflect the fact that the company is running so far ahead of these targets? Or do you think forward growth to continue to top this range through 2025?

克雷格，我想跟進一下你在準備好的評論中的評論，如果公司未能實現投資者日制定的 5% 至 8% 的年增長目標，你會感到驚訝。這是否僅僅反映了該公司已經遠遠領先這些目標？或者您認為到 2025 年未來成長將繼續保持這一水平？

Yes. I think, one, to your point, we are certainly running ahead. I mean, if you take a look at, assuming the 2023 guidance is a good number, we've been running around 10% top line growth against the 5% to 8% target. So well ahead on growth. And quite frankly, we've become incrementally more positive on some of these secular growth trends.

是的。我認為，首先，正如你所說，我們確實處於領先地位。我的意思是，如果你看一下，假設 2023 年的指引是一個好數字，我們的營收成長率就已經在 10% 左右，而目標是 5% 到 8%。增長前景十分光明。坦白說，我們對一些長期成長趨勢的看法已經逐漸變得更加積極。

I think if you take a look at stimulus spending, that number has been topped up since we laid those goals out more than a year ago. I think today, if you think about climate change and some of the investments that are going into grid resiliency -- and so as we sit here today, I would tell you that the secular growth trends that we spent a lot of time talking about, we've become even incrementally more positive on what the longer-term implications are of these secular growth trends.

我想，如果你看一下刺激支出，你會發現自從我們一年多前製定這些目標以來，這個數字已經增加。我認為今天，如果你考慮氣候變遷和一些用於電網彈性的投資——所以當我們今天坐在這裡時，我想告訴你，我們花了很多時間討論的長期增長趨勢，我們對這些長期增長趨勢的長期影響已經變得更加積極。

Now that may not play out completely between now and 2025. I think there's going to be some capacity constraints in the industry, and we're already experiencing some of those. That could be a gating factor. But that just gives us a much longer runway on the back end of this thing in terms of what's going to happen with these markets over the long term.

從現在到 2025 年，這種情況可能不會完全實現。這可能是個限制因素。但從長期來看這些市場將會發生什麼，這給了我們更長的時間來了解這件事的後端情況。

Yes. I appreciate that. It certainly feels like it's showing through with the orders and the pipeline. But then kind of on that, obviously, global orders have decelerated. It sounds like the company is decently optimistic on the rate of change and certainly in China. It sounds like maybe even Europe as well. With that, could we actually see global orders reaccelerate in 2023 just given those two economies maybe starting to move in the right direction?

是的。我很感激。感覺它確實透過訂單和管道表現出來了。但顯然，全球訂單已經減速。聽起來該公司對於變化的速度相當樂觀，尤其是在中國。聽起來連歐洲也可能如此。那麼，鑑於這兩個經濟體可能開始朝著正確的方向發展，我們是否真的可以看到 2023 年全球訂單重新加速成長？

Yes. I mean, I think it's -- when you say reaccelerate. I think it's a question of relative numbers. We had a very strong year for the most part, a very, very strong first half of the year in our Global business. And we're still anticipating growth, but we are anticipating the rate of growth will have slowed from what we saw in 2022. A lot of that tied to this assumption around a global recession that could hit Europe perhaps more impactfully than it maybe would in other regions of the world. And so it could -- there's a possibility that we could see a reacceleration. That's not our base assumption. We assume that we're going to still see growth but growth at a slower rate.

是的。我的意思是，我認為——當你說重新加速時。我認為這是一個相對數字的問題。整體而言，今年我們表現非常強勁，尤其是上半年我們的全球業務表現非常非常強勁。我們仍在預期成長，但我們預期成長率將低於 2022 年的水平。因此，我們有可能看到經濟重新加速。這不是我們的基本假設。我們預計，經濟仍將保持成長，但成長速度將會放緩。

Yes. Let me just punch some numbers on Global because we talked a lot about Americas, but just to punch a few numbers. For trailing 12-month orders in our Global segment, we have high double digit in commercial and institution. We're over 20% in residential, and data centers is doing significantly well. I mean utility is up high single digits. So very strong growth also in Global, not to the extent of Americas but still very sporty.

是的。讓我只按一下全球數字，因為我們談了很多關於美洲的事情，但只是按幾個數字。就我們全球部門過去 12 個月的訂單而言，我們在商業和機構方面的訂單均實現了高兩位數的成長。我們的住宅市佔率超過 20%，而且資料中心的表現也非常好。我的意思是效用上升了個位數。因此，全球範圍內的成長也非常強勁，雖然不如美洲那麼強勁，但仍然非常具有運動性。

And our next question, which is the final one in queue, is from Brett Linzey from Mizuho Americas.

我們的下一個問題，也是最後一個問題，來自瑞穗美洲公司的 Brett Linzey。

I wanted to come back to Electrical. So the incremental margins reported 44% in the fourth quarter. You're only guiding about 30% for the year. I'm just curious why Q4 would not be more reflective of an undisturbed result with supply chains resolving and price catching up. So curious if there's something else through the course of '23 or just conservatism.

我想回到電器業。第四季的增量利潤率為44%。您今年的預期目標僅為 30% 左右。我只是好奇為什麼第四季不能更好地反映出供應鏈解決和價格趕上的不受影響的結果。所以我很好奇在 23 年期間是否還會發生其他事情，或者只是保守主義。

Yes. I mean that's the same discussion I'm having with my operating leaders. Why isn't Q4 44% the new normal? And I'd say that, as you can imagine, in every quarter, there's always a number of things that can go positively in your direction and things that could go against you. And we just had a very strong quarter of execution and good mix in our Americas business in Q4 that drove those incrementals to be well above where they would normally run.

是的。我的意思是這與我和我​​的營運領導的討論是相同的。為什麼第四季的 44% 不是新常態？我想說的是，正如你所想像的，在每個時期，總有一些事情可以對你有利，也有一些事情可能對你不利。我們在第四季度的美洲業務執行力非常強勁，產品組合良好，這使得增量遠高於正常水平。

We do think from a planning standpoint, especially given some of the investments that we need to continue to make to support this growth in R&D and an customer capture initiatives, that we think 30% is the right planning number to have. And as you think about the business on a go-forward basis and very much consistent with where we've been historically.

我們確實認為，從規劃的角度來看，特別是考慮到我們需要繼續進行一些投資來支持研發的成長和客戶獲取計劃，我們認為 30% 是正確的規劃數字。當您從未來的角度考慮業務時，它與我們的歷史狀況非常一致。

I'll just end on 30% is good for planning. But we take the coaching, and we don't want to disappoint the Chairman. So we'll work hard to beat that.

我認為 30% 就足以完成規劃了。但我們接受了指導，我們不想讓主席失望。所以我們會努力克服這一點。

And just one last follow-up. Where are we in this pricing cycle? I mean, is there more to do here? Have you made announcements for this year? And then maybe any context for what you're embedding for the price component of the 7% to 9% growth this year?

最後一次跟進。我們處於這定價週期的哪個階段？我的意思是，這裡還有更多的事情要做嗎？您有發布過今年的公告嗎？那麼您能不能介紹一下今年 7% 到 9% 的成長中價格成分的具體背景？

Yes. Certainly, price will be a contributor to the growth for 2023. It obviously contributes at a much lower rate than it's contributed in 2022. And yes, there is some more to do. We are, in fact, expecting to see positive price over the course of the year.

是的。當然，價格將成為 2023 年成長的一個貢獻因素。事實上，我們預計今年的價格將呈現正面動能。

We -- today, commodities have certainly slowed their rate of ascent. In some cases, we treat it a little bit, but they're back up again. You see copper is back up again. And the big challenge right now we're finding is really on the labor front. Labor inflation is certainly coming through the system. And so clearly, we still have work to do on the price front, and it's baked into the guidance that we laid out, but it will certainly be at a much lower rate than what we experienced over the course of 2022. And most of what you're seeing in those growth numbers are volume.

我們——今天，大宗商品的上漲速度肯定已經放緩。在某些情況下，我們稍加治療，但它們又會復發。你會看到銅價又回升了。我們發現，當前最大的挑戰實際上是在勞動力方面。勞動力通膨肯定會透過系統而出現。因此顯然，我們在價格方面仍有工作要做，這已經包含在我們制定的指導方針中，但肯定會比 2022 年的增長速度低得多。

We have reached to the end of our call and do appreciate everybody's questions. As always, [Chip] and I will be available to address your follow-up questions. Thank you for joining us today. Have a great day, guys.

我們的通話已經結束，非常感謝大家的提問。像往常一樣，[Chip] 和我將隨時解答您的後續問題。感謝您今天加入我們。祝大家有個愉快的一天。

Thank you. And that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T Teleconference Service. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的會議就到此結束了。感謝您的參與和使用 AT&T 電話會議服務。您現在可以斷開連線。