伊頓 (ETN) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and thank you for standing by.

您好，感謝您的支持。

Welcome to the Eaton fourth-quarter 2024 earnings results conference call.

歡迎參加伊頓 2024 年第四季財報業績電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Yan Jin, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations.

現在，我想將會議交給今天的發言人、投資者關係高級副總裁嚴進。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

Thank you all for joining us for Eaton's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call.

感謝大家參加伊頓 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

With me today are Craig Arnold, our Chairman and CEO; Paulo Ruiz, President and Chief Operating Officer.

今天與我在一起的有我們的董事長兼執行長克雷格‧阿諾德 (Craig Arnold)；總裁兼營運長 Paulo Ruiz。

Our agenda today includes the opening remarks by Craig, who will turn it over to Olivier, who will highlight our company's performance in the fourth quarter.

我們今天的議程包括克雷格的開幕致辭，然後他將發言權交給奧利維爾，奧利維爾將重點介紹我們公司在第四季度的業績。

We will then turn it over to Paulo who will provide guidance for Q1 and our full-year 2025.

然後，我們將把它交給 Paulo，他將為我們的 2025 年第一季和全年提供指導。

As we have done in our past calls, we will take your questions at the end of our calls commentary.

正如我們在過去的電話會議中所做的那樣，我們將在電話會議評論結束時回答您的問題。

The press release and the presentation we will go through today have been posted on our website.

我們今天將要發布的新聞稿和簡報已發佈在我們的網站上。

This presentation, including adjusted earnings per share, adjusted free cash flow, and other non-GAAP measures.

本報告包括調整後的每股盈餘、調整後的自由現金流量和其他非公認會計準則指標。

They are reconciled in the appendix.

它們在附錄中進行了協調。

A webcast of this call is accessible on our website and will be available for replay.

本次通話的網路直播可在我們的網站上觀看，並可供重播。

I would like to remove that our commentary today will include statements related to the expected future results of the company and are, therefore, forward-looking statements.

我想刪除的是，我們今天的評論將包括與公司預期未來業績相關的陳述，因此是前瞻性的陳述。

Our actual results may differ materially from our forecasted projections due to a wider range of risks and uncertainties that are described in our earnings release and presentation.

由於我們的收益報告和報告中描述的更廣泛的風險和不確定性，我們的實際結果可能與我們的預測有重大差異。

With that, I will turn it over to Craig.

說完這些，我將把麥克風交給 Craig。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Yan, and we're pleased to close out the year with another strong quarterly result.

謝謝，Yan，我們很高興以另一個強勁的季度業績結束今年。

I'm especially proud of how our team executed in the quarter.

我對我們團隊在本季的表現特別感到自豪。

As you know, we needed to overcome the impact of strikes in the aerospace industry and the lingering impact of the hurricane, which impacted our Electrical Americas business.

如您所知，我們需要克服航空航天業罷工的影響以及颶風的持續影響，這對我們的美洲電氣業務造成了影響。

For the quarter, we generated a Q4 record for adjusted EPS of $2.83, up 11% from prior year.

本季度，我們創造了調整後每股收益 2.83 美元的記錄，較上年同期增長 11%。

We also delivered record segment margins of 24.7%, up 190 basis points from last year and above the high end of our guidance.

我們還實現了創紀錄的 24.7% 的分部利潤率，較去年同期成長 190 個基點，且高於我們預期的最高值。

And we continue to see strong market activity.

我們繼續看到強勁的市場活動。

On a rolling 12-month basis, electrical orders were up 12%, led by our Electrical Americas with orders up 16% and orders were up 10% in aerospace.

連續 12 個月，電氣訂單成長 12%，其中美洲電氣訂單成長 16%，航空航太訂單成長 10%。

This led to another quarter growing and record backlogs with once again outstanding result from Electrical Americas, up 29% and then aerospace up 16%, with book-to-bill ratios above 1 in both businesses.

這導致本季又成長並創下訂單記錄，其中電氣美洲業務的業績再次表現出色，增長了 29%，航空航天業務增長了 16%，兩個業務的訂單出貨比均超過了 1。

As you can see from the chart, we're set for another strong year in 2025.

從圖表中我們可以看出，2025 年我們將迎來另一個強勁成長的一年。

Paulo will walk you through our guidance, but we do expect another year of healthy end markets, strong organic growth, margin expansion, improving cash flow, and double-digit increases in adjusted EPS.

Paulo 將向您介紹我們的指導，但我們確實預計明年終端市場將保持健康、有機成長強勁、利潤率將擴大、現金流將改善、調整後每股收益將實現兩位數成長。

Turning to page 4, we're once again providing an overview of megatrends and how they're driving growth in our end markets.

翻到第 4 頁，我們再次概述了大趨勢以及它們如何推動我們終端市場的成長。

You're very familiar with this trend by now, but we didn't want to provide an overview of how these markets performed in 2024 versus our expectations.

您現在已經非常熟悉這一趨勢，但我們不想概述這些市場在 2024 年的表現與我們的預期相比如何。

This is especially relevant in the context of our outlook for 2025 that Paulo will provide later today and at our Investor Meeting in March.

這對於 Paulo 今天晚些時候以及 3 月份的投資者會議上提供的 2025 年展望尤其重要。

In electrical, our end markets performed better than expectations due to strength in data centers and in the Americas market.

在電氣方面，由於資料中心和美洲市場的強勁表現，我們的終端市場表現優於預期。

Strong growth in these two areas more than offset some unplanned weakness in residential and MOEM markets.

這兩個領域的強勁成長足以抵消住宅和 MOEM 市場的一些意外疲軟。

In aerospace, markets grew nicely in line with plan and this was despite the Boeing strike.

在航空航太領域，儘管波音公司發生罷工，但市場仍按照計畫順利成長。

In our vehicle markets, we're a bit of a mixed bag with better-than-planned performance in commercial vehicles, offsetting weakness in the light vehicle market, which includes e-mobility.

在我們的汽車市場中，我們的表現好壞參半，商用車的表現好於計劃，抵消了包括電動車在內的輕型車市場的疲軟。

Overall, we continue to see megatrends noted here as important drivers of secular growth in our markets and why you should expect Eaton to pose attractive growth for years to come.

總體而言，我們繼續將這裡提到的大趨勢視為我們市場長期成長的重要驅動力，也是為什麼您應該期待伊頓在未來幾年實現可觀的成長。

And this secular growth is perhaps most evidenced by the megatrend chart that you see on slide 5 in the presentation.

這種長期成長或許最能體現在簡報第 5 張投影片中的大趨勢圖表。

As a reminder, a megaproject is a project with announced value of $1 billion or more and our reference point begins in January of 2021.

提醒一下，大型項目是宣布的價值為 10 億美元或以上的項目，我們的參考點從 2021 年 1 月開始。

As you know, we've reported this data for a few quarters now and our conclusion hasn't changed.

如您所知，我們已經報告了幾個季度的這些數據，我們的結論沒有改變。

Each quarter we're seeing an increase in a number of projects, hard dollar values, and a growing backlog.

每個季度我們都會看到項目數量、美元價值和積壓訂單不斷增加。

Q4 was another record with 65 projects announced at a value of more than $150 billion.

第四季再創紀錄，共宣布 65 個項目，總價值超過 1500 億美元。

Through Q4, we're now at [569] projects with a cumulative value of $1.7 trillion and the backlog now stands at $1.9 trillion of 33% from last year.

截至第四季度，我們目前共有 [569] 個項目，累計價值為 1.7 兆美元，積壓訂單目前為 1.9 兆美元，比去年增長 33%。

Through Q4, approximately 15% of these products have started and we expect a record number of starts in 2025.

截至第四季度，約有 15% 的此類產品已啟動，我們預計 2025 年的啟動數量將創下歷史新高。

Many of you have asked the question about cancellation rates, which we continue to monitor as well.

許多人詢問了有關取消率的問題，我們也將持續監控這個問題。

To date, cancellations have actually been modest, around 11% and well below historical levels.

到目前為止，取消率實際上一直不高，約 11%，遠低於歷史水準。

A couple of things of Eaton's specific data.

有關伊頓的一些具體數據。

For projects that have started, we've won over $1.8 billion of orders were the win rate of almost 40% and we're in active negotiations on another $3.1 billion of electrical content.

對於已啟動的項目，我們贏得了超過18億美元的訂單，中標率接近40%，並且我們正在就另外31億美元的電氣項目進行積極談判。

So as you can see from the math, most of these projects having reached in negotiation stage, and we expect those orders due to growth.

因此，從數學計算中可以看出，大多數項目已進入談判階段，我們預計這些訂單將會成長。

Given the heightened discussions on data centers this week, I wanted to take a moment to highlight our data center business and why we have so much confidence in our outlook for continued growth.

鑑於本周有關資料中心的討論愈演愈烈，我想花點時間重點介紹一下我們的資料中心業務，以及我們為何對持續成長的前景如此有信心。

The information on slide 6 summarizes our sales, negotiations, orders, and backlog for our data center business.

投影片 6 上的資訊總結了我們的資料中心業務的銷售、談判、訂單和積壓訂單。

It includes hyperscale, [colos], on-prem data centers, and the major categories of cloud training and inference, and loud is still by a wide margin, the largest category.

它包括超大規模、[colos]、本地資料中心以及雲端訓練和推理的主要類別，而 Loud 仍然是遙遙領先的最大類別。

As you can see from the data, the rate of growth is well ahead of sales.

從數據中我們可以看出，成長率遠遠超過銷售額。

I'll not read in each of the numbers as they speak for themselves, but we'll ask that you note a few points.

我不會逐一讀出每個數字的含義，但我們會請您注意幾點。

Our backlog is rapidly increasing, up 50% over prior year, which was up 70% over 2022.

我們的積壓訂單正在迅速增加，比上年增長了 50%，比 2022 年增長了 70%。

And as you've all seen, customers continue to increase the forecasts with capital investments.

正如大家所看到的，客戶不斷透過資本投資來增加預測。

Hyperscale customers alone expect to spend almost $300 billion in CapEx in 2025, up 30% from 2024.

光是超大規模客戶就預計在 2025 年花費近 3,000 億美元的資本支出，比 2024 年成長 30%。

To the seven years.

至七年。

At 2024 build rates, it would take seven years to consume the current backlog and the data center construct-to-build rate doubled between '23 and '24.

以 2024 年的建設速度，需要七年時間才能消耗掉目前的積壓訂單，而資料中心的建設速度在 23 年至 24 年間翻了一番。

So any notion that this market will slow down; it's simply not consistent with maybe the data that we're seeing.

因此，任何認為這個市場將會放緩的想法；這可能與我們看到的數據不一致。

The industry will no doubt continue to see innovation and technology developments that reduce costs, and if judged by history, accelerator of growth.

毫無疑問，該行業將繼續看到創新和技術發展，從而降低成本，如果從歷史來看，則將加速成長。

For 2025 and for years to come, we expect data centers to be our strongest market and stand by our previous forecast, which assumed strong double-digit growth.

我們預計，到 2025 年及未來幾年，資料中心將成為我們最強勁的市場，並堅持我們先前的預測，即實現強勁的兩位數成長。

Now, I'll turn it over to Olivier to take us through financial results for the quarter.

現在，我將讓 Olivier 向我們介紹本季的財務表現。

Thanks, Craig.

謝謝，克雷格。

I will start by providing a summary of our Q4 results, which again, includes many new recalls.

我將首先提供我們第四季度業績的摘要，其中再次包含許多新的召回。

We posted fourth-quarter record sales of $6.2 billion of FX headwind.

我們第四季的外匯逆風銷售額創下了 62 億美元的紀錄。

Hurricane Helene and labor strikes in the aerospace industry negatively impacted Q4 sales by approximately $18 million or 130 basis points.

颶風海倫和航空航太業的罷工對第四季度的銷售額產生了負面影響，約 1800 萬美元或 130 個基點。

Operating profit grew 13% and segment margin expanded 190 basis points to an all-time record 24.7%.

營業利益成長 13%，分部利潤率擴大 190 個基點，達到歷史最高水準的 24.7%。

Adjusted EPS up $2.83, increased by 9% over the prior year.

調整後每股收益上漲 2.83 美元，較上年增長 9%。

This is a Q4 quarterly record on a year-over-year basis and free cash flow of $1.3 billion, up 8% versus prior year.

這是第四季的年比最高記錄，自由現金流為 13 億美元，比上年增長 8%。

We detail our America

我們詳細描述了我們的美國

(inaudible).

（聽不清楚）。

The business continues to execute very well and delivered another record for operating profit and margins and posted a Q4 quarterly record sales.

業務表現持續良好，營業利潤和利潤率再創紀錄，第四季銷售額也創下歷史新高。

Organic sales growth of 9% was driven primarily by strength in data center, along with solid growth in commercial and institutional markets.

9% 的有機銷售成長主要得益於資料中心的強勁成長以及商業和機構市場的穩健成長。

Without the impacts of the hurricane disruptions to the business, organic growth would have been in the double digits.

如果沒有颶風對業務造成的影響，有機成長率將達到兩位數。

Operating margin of 31.6% was up 310 basis points versus prior year, benefiting from higher sales, remain at the at a high level of 16%, demonstrating continued tailwinds from the various megatrends.

營業利潤率為 31.6%，較上年上升 310 個基點，受益於銷售額成長，仍維持在 16% 的高位，顯示各大趨勢持續帶來利好。

We had particular strength in the data center market where activity remains very robust.

我們在資料中心市場尤其具有實力，該市場的活躍度依然非常強勁。

For example, Dodge data shows US announced data center project starts at up 99% in 2024 and $173% year over year in Q4.

例如，道奇的數據顯示，美國宣布的資料中心專案開工率在 2024 年將成長 99%，第四季的開工金額將年增 173%。

With data center construction backlog, it's now estimated to extend out about seven years based on 2024 build rates.

由於資料中心建設積壓，以 2024 年的建設速度計算，目前估計需要延長約七年。

Electrical Americas backlog increased 29% year over year with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.2 on a rolling 12-month basis.

美洲電氣積壓訂單較上年同期增加 29%，連續 12 個月的訂單出貨比為 1.2。

These results close out a record year for the business, which posted full-year revenue of $11.4 billion, organic growth of 13%, and margins of 30.2%, up 370 basis points over prior year.

這些業績為該公司創造了創紀錄的一年，全年營收為 114 億美元，有機成長率為 13%，利潤率為 30.2%，比上年增長 370 個基點。

With the tailwinds from secular trends, incremental capacity coming online, strong execution, and robust backlogs, Electrical Americas remains well positioned as we enter 2025.

在長期趨勢的推動下，增量產能上線，強大的執行力和充足的積壓訂單，Electrical Americas 在進入 2025 年時仍處於有利地位。

The next chart summarizes the results.

下圖總結了結果。

Total revenue growth of 4% included organic growth of 5.5% and FX tailwind of 1.5%.

總營收成長 4%，其中有機成長 5.5% ，外匯順風成長 1.5%。

We had strength regionally.

我們在區域層面上具有實力。

We saw continued strength in APAC with double-digit organic growth and high-single-digit organic growth in EMEA.

我們看到亞太地區持續保持強勁勢頭，實現兩位數的有機成長，而歐洲、中東和非洲地區則實現高個位數的有機成長。

Operating margin of 17.7% was down 110 basis points versus prior year, primarily driven by mix.

營業利益率為 17.7%，較前一年下降 110 個基點，主要受產品組合影響。

Orders were up for similar to sales growth, the strengthened was driven by the data center and utility markets.

訂單量與銷售成長類似，成長主要得益於資料中心和公用事業市場。

Backlog increased 16% over prior year, and book-to-bill continues to remain strong.

積壓訂單比上年增加 16%，訂單出貨比持續保持強勁。

Q4 was 1.1 on a rolling 12-month basis.

以連續 12 個月計算，第四季為 1.1。

For the full year, electrical global posted 4% organic growth with 18.4% margins.

全年來看，全球電氣實現4%的有機成長，利潤率為18.4%。

For Q4, we posted organic growth of 8% and segment margin of 26.7%, which was up 170 basis points over prior year.

第四季度，我們的有機成長率為 8%，分部利潤率為 26.7%，比去年同期成長了 170 個基點。

For the full year, we posted organic growth of 10% and segment margins of 26%, up 220 basis points over 2023.

全年，我們實現了 10% 的有機成長率，分部利潤率達到 26%，比 2023 年成長 220 個基點。

On a rolling 12-month basis, orders were up 12%, and our book-to-bill ratio for our electrical sector remains very strong at 1.1. We remain confident in our positioning for continued growth with strong margins in our overall electric global business.

連續 12 個月，訂單量成長了 12%，我們電氣部門的訂單出貨比仍然保持強勁，為 1.1。我們對我們的持續成長以及全球整體電力業務強勁的利潤率的定位充滿信心。

Organic and total growth was 9% for the quarter, driven with growth in all end markets with (technical difficulty) commercial aftermarket.

本季有機成長率和總成長率為 9%，這得益於所有終端市場（包括（技術難度）商業售後市場）的成長。

Without the impacts of the aerospace industry strikes, organic growth will have been indeed double digits.

如果沒有航空航太業罷工的影響，有機成長確實會達到兩位數。

Operating margin was strong at 22.9%, up 50 basis points year over year, mostly from higher sales.

營業利益率強勁達到 22.9%，較上年同期成長 50 個基點，主要得益於銷售額的成長。

Orders increased 10%, up from 6% in the prior quarter, with particular strength in military OEM, [nearshore] OEM, and commercial aftermarket.

訂單量成長了 10%，高於上一季的 6%，其中軍用 OEM、[近岸] OEM 和商業售後市場表現尤為強勁。

Year-over-year backlog increased 16% and was up 2% sequentially.

積壓訂單年增 16%，季增 2%。

On a rolling 12-month basis, our book-to-bill for our aerospace segment remains strong at 1.1. On the full-year basis, aerospace posted 10% organic growth with 23% margins.

以連續 12 個月的數據來看，我們航空航天部門的訂單出貨比仍然保持強勁，為 1.1。從全年來看，航空航太業實現 10% 的有機成長，利潤率為 23%。

Moving to our vehicle segment on page 11.

轉到第 11 頁的車輛部分。

In the quarter, total revenue was down 10%, including a 7% organic decline, primarily driven by weaknesses in the North America, EMEA, and APAC, light vehicle markets, and 3 points of unfavorable FX.

本季度，總收入下降 10%，其中有機下降 7%，主要原因是北美、歐洲、中東和非洲 (EMEA) 和亞太地區、輕型車市場疲軟以及 3 點的不利外匯因素。

Despite the top line weaknesses, the team executed well from a margin perspective.

儘管營收表現疲軟，但從利潤率角度來看，該團隊表現良好。

Operating margin came in at 18.8%.

營業利益率為18.8%。

On a full-year basis, vehicle recorded organic revenue down 5% with 18% margins.

從全年來看，汽車業務的有機收入下降 5%，利潤率為 18%。

On page 12, we show results of our e-mobility business.

第 12 頁，我們展示了我們的電子行動業務的成果。

Total revenue was down 11%, including a 10% organic decline, primarily driven by our customers' program launch and production ramp-up delays, and 1% unfavorable FX.

總收入下降 11%，其中有機下降 10%，主要由於客戶專案啟動和生產加速延遲，以及 1% 的不利外匯影響。

Operating profit was $3 million, resulting in operating margin of 1.8% for the quarter.

本季營業利潤為 300 萬美元，營業利潤率為 1.8%。

Percent organic growth was negative 1% margins.

有機成長百分比為負1%的利潤率。

Moving to page 13, we show our electrical and aerospace backlog updated through Q4.

轉到第 13 頁，我們顯示了截至第四季度更新的電氣和航空航太積壓訂單。

Backlog continues to be very strong, with electric at $11.8 billion and aerospace at $3.7 billion for a total backlog of $15.5 billion.

積壓訂單持續保持強勁，其中電氣訂單為 118 億美元，航空航太訂單為 37 億美元，總積壓訂單為 155 億美元。

Versus prior year, our backlogs have grown by 27% in electrical and 16% in aerospace.

與去年相比，我們在電氣領域的積壓訂單增加了 27%，在航空航太領域的積壓訂單增加了 16%。

They are also increasing sequentially.

它們的數量也在逐年增加。

As noted earlier, book-to-bill ratios for electric and aerospace are 1.1 and 1.1, respectively.

如前所述，電氣和航空航太的訂單出貨比分別為 1.1 和 1.1。

The continued growth in our backlog underscores our high level of confidence in future demand.

我們的積壓訂單持續成長凸顯了我們對未來需求的高度信心。

In addition to our strong backlog growth in 2024, the next page shows the continued strength in our negotiations pipeline, which supports our expectation for strong markets and structurally higher organic growth rates.

除了我們在 2024 年的強勁積壓成長之外，下一頁還展示了我們談判管道的持續強勁，這支持了我們對強勁市場和結構性更高有機成長率的預期。

In Electrical Americas, the pipeline has increased nearly 4 times since 2019.

在電氣美洲業務方面，自 2019 年以來，管道增加了近 4 倍。

In fact, the pipeline grew 40% year over year, showing acceleration versus our multiyear CAGR of 29%.

事實上，該通路年增了 40％，與我們多年 29％ 的複合年增長率相比有所加速。

The year-over-year increase was largely driven by data center, commercial and institutional, and utility end markets.

年比成長主要得益於資料中心、商業和機構以及公用事業終端市場。

Within the commercial and institutional end markets, growth was driven by education, government, and transportation.

在商業和機構終端市場中，成長主要由教育、政府和交通運輸所推動。

This is even stronger than the 13% organic growth in our Electrical Americas business, which suggests continued strength going forward.

這甚至比我們美洲電氣業務 13% 的有機成長還要強勁，這表明未來將繼續保持強勁勢頭。

Now, I will pass it over to Craig to summarize our 2024 performance.

現在，我將交給 Craig 來總結我們 2024 年的表現。

Thanks, Olivier.

謝謝，奧利維爾。

If we execute well and markets performed as expected, it should put us in a position to exceed our guidance.

如果我們執行良好且市場表現符合預期，那麼我們就能夠超越我們的預期。

This occurred again in 2024.

2024 年，這種情況再次發生。

Throughout the year, we demonstrated the ability to all key metrics.

全年我們都展現了達到所有關鍵指標的能力。

We delivered 8% organic growth and 18% increase in adjusted EPS, all-time record margins of 24%, and all above our initial guidance.

我們實現了 8% 的有機成長、18% 的調整後每股盈餘成長、創歷史新高的 24% 的利潤率，且均高於我們最初的預期。

Of particular note, segment margins were up 140 basis points versus the original guidance midpoint.

特別值得注意的是，分部利潤率較最初的指導中點上升了 140 個基點。

And as you know, every business deals with a number of market uncertainties and life has a way of delivering unexpected surprises.

眾所周知，每個企業都會面臨許多市場不確定性，生活中總會不時出現意想不到的驚喜。

So we run the company of a way that of our team's execution in the year.

因此，我們按照我們團隊全年執行的方式經營公司。

We delivered another record year financial results while reinvesting in the business like never before.

我們再次創造了創紀錄的年度財務業績，同時對業務進行了前所未有的再投資。

But while we are proud of our progress, we're not satisfied because we can do so much better.

但是，儘管我們為自己的進步感到自豪，但我們並不滿足，因為我們可以做得更好。

We're in the right markets and the identified megatrends are creating some of the biggest opportunities that we'll see in our lifetime.

我們處於正確的市場，而且已確定的大趨勢正在創造我們一生中將看到的一些最大的機會。

The growth opportunities are everywhere.

成長機會無處不在。

Our negotiations pipeline, record order backlogs are evidence of our ability to convert on the opportunities, and we now have the capacity in place or coming soon to support even faster growth.

我們的談判管道、創紀錄的訂單積壓證明了我們有能力抓住機遇，而且我們現在已經具備或即將擁有這種能力來支持更快的成長。

And we have Eaton Business System.

我們還有伊頓商業系統。

We call it EBS.

我們稱之為 EBS。

That keeps everyone focused on getting better; running better functions, better factories, and better businesses.

這使得每個人都專注於進步；運作更好的功能、更好的工廠和更好的業務。

It's how we improve our efficiency and I couldn't be more pleased with the team leading the next stage of Eaton's transformation.

這就是我們提高效率的方式，我對領導伊頓下一階段轉型的團隊感到非常滿意。

And on that note, I'll pass it over to Paulo who'll walk us through our

關於這一點，我將交給 Paulo，他將帶我們了解我們的

-- (technical difficulty)

--（技術難度）

2025, on page 17, we provide our view of end market growth expectations for the next year.

2025，在第 17 頁，我們提供了對未來一年終端市場成長預期的看法。

As you can see, we continue to anticipate attractive growth markets in nearly all of our end markets.

如您所見，我們繼續預期幾乎所有終端市場都將出現具有吸引力的成長市場。

We're expecting double-digit growth in data center and distributed IT, commercial aerospace, and electric vehicles.

我們預計資料中心和分散式 IT、商業航空和電動車將實現兩位數成長。

For data centers, we remain constructive in our future outlook given the strength and breadth of our secular trends.

對於資料中心，鑑於長期趨勢的強度和廣度，我們對未來前景仍然持建設性態度。

We continue to see strong demand in data center markets with the adoption of cloud computing and acceleration of AI technologies, including inference and training.

隨著雲端運算的採用以及推理和訓練等人工智慧技術的加速，我們繼續看到資料中心市場需求強勁。

So as more AI technology emerge, acceleration in AI usage would drive higher consumption of our AI hardware, including our electrical equipment.

因此，隨著更多人工智慧技術的出現，人工智慧應用的加速將推動我們的人工智慧硬體（包括我們的電氣設備）的更高消耗。

We also expect solid growth in utility and modest growth across many of our other end markets.

我們也預計，實用性將實現穩健成長，其他許多終端市場也將適度成長。

So we anticipate weaknesses in commercial vehicle and resi markets, but that's changing resi outlook from last quarter is offset with trend in other end markets and we do not see a change in our overall market growth between 6% and 8%.

因此，我們預期商用車和住宅市場將出現疲軟，但與上一季相比，住宅前景的變化被其他終端市場的趨勢所抵消，我們認為整體市場成長率不會在6% 至8% 之間發生變化。

Overall, 2025 should be another year of significant growth with more -- and supported also by strong order book, a strong record backlog, and favorable secular trends.

總體而言，2025 年應是另一個顯著增長的一年，並且還將受到強勁的訂單、強勁的創紀錄積壓和有利的長期趨勢的支持。

So we remain well positioned to deliver differentiated growth in 2025.

因此，我們仍處於有利地位，可以在 2025 年實現差異化成長。

Now moving to page 18, we summarized our 2025 revenue and margin guidance.

現在轉到第 18 頁，我們總結了 2025 年的營收和利潤率指引。

Organic growth for 2025 is expected to be between 7% and 9%, with particular strength in Electrical Americas at 11.5% at the midpoint.

預計 2025 年的有機成長率將在 7% 至 9% 之間，其中美洲電氣業務的成長率將特別強勁，中間值將達到 11.5%。

And I'll also add that healthy end markets combined once again with our large backlog, continues to provide premium visibility to support our 2025 outlook.

我還要補充一點，健康的終端市場與我們大量的積壓訂單相結合，將繼續提供優質的可見性，以支持我們 2025 年的展望。

For segment margins, our guidance range is between 24.4% and 24.8%.

對於分部利潤率，我們的預期範圍在 24.4% 至 24.8% 之間。

It's an improvement of 60 basis points at the midpoint from our 2024 all-time record margins of 24%.

與 2024 年歷史最高利潤率 24% 相比，中間值提高了 60 個基點。

Now on the next page, we have the balance of our guidance for 2025 and Q1.

現在在下一頁，我們有 2025 年和第一季的指導平衡。

So for 2025, our EPS is expected to be between $11.80 and $12.20, a $12 at the midpoint and $23.7 billion to $4.1 billion, up 11% at the midpoint.

因此，對於 2025 年，我們預計每股收益在 11.80 美元至 12.20 美元之間，中間值為 12 美元，中間值為 237 億美元至 41 億美元，成長 11%。

We also expect this year, we will leave plenty of room for strategic M&A.

我們也預計今年我們將為策略併購留出足夠的空間。

We have also provided guidance on this page for Q1, as you can see.

如您所見，我們還在此頁面提供了第一季度的指導。

Turning to slide 20, we wanted to take a minute to highlight our upcoming Annual Investor Conference on March 11, 2025.

翻到第 20 張投影片，我們想花一點時間來重點介紹即將於 2025 年 3 月 11 日召開的年度投資者大會。

We'll be back in New York City and we'll stream the presentation at eaton.com.

我們將返回紐約並在 eaton.com 上直播此演示。

Along with myself, you also have presentations from others, so we are really excited to talk about the future of the company, including outlining our 2030 targets.

除了我之外，還有其他人也發表了演講，因此我們非常高興談論公司的未來，包括概述我們的 2030 年目標。

With that, I'll hand it back to Yan and the operator for Q&A.

說完這些，我將把麥克風交還給 Yan 和接線員進行問答。

Thanks, Paulo.

謝謝，保羅。

For the Q&A today, please limit your opportunity to one question and a follow-up.

對於今天的問答，請將您的機會限制為一個問題和一個後續問題。

Thanks in advance for your cooperation.

先感謝您的合作。

With that, I'll turn it over to the operator to give you guys an instruction.

說完這些，我將把麥克風交給操作員，以便向你們發出指示。

(Operator Instructions) Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）摩根士丹利的克里斯·斯奈德。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Maybe starting off, one for Olivier.

也許首先要為奧利維爾獻上一份。

So the guide on cost for, I guess, the midpoint about 6.5% organic in Q1 and then 8.5% the rest of the year.

因此，我猜成本指導價是，第一季的中間值約為 6.5%，今年剩餘時間的有機成本約為 8.5%。

Can you talk about the drivers of that pickup in growth?

您能談談經濟成長回升的驅動因素嗎？

And then what should we expect for the cadence of adjusted EPS throughout the remainder of '25?

那麼，我們對 25 年剩餘時間內調整後每股盈餘的節奏應該有何期待呢？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you for your question.

感謝您的提問。

Let me cover first the EPS guidance to the year, and Paulo and I will tag team on the revenue section.

首先讓我介紹今年的每股盈餘預期，然後 Paulo 和我將負責營收部分。

If you look at the EPS, we are planning today to up the first half to directionally represent 48% of the full EPS guide for the year and the second half as a result of 52%.

如果你看一下每股盈餘，我們今天計劃將上半年的每股盈餘提高到全年每股盈餘預期的 48%，下半年的每股盈餘則提高到 52%。

If you look at the recent past, we used to have a mix between first, up in 54%.

如果回顧近期，我們曾經將第一種和第二種混合，上升了 54%。

So we're well balanced, first half, second half.

因此，我們的上半場和下半場都保持著良好的平衡。

Wanted also to talk about the Q1 EPS guide.

還想談談第一季每股收益指南。

Again, similarly to the first half, second half, the Q1 sequential decline is actually better than what we have experienced in our recent past percent.

同樣，與上半年、下半年類似，第一季的連續下滑實際上比我們最近經歷的百分比要好。

This guide implies a decline of 4%.

該指引意味著下降 4%。

The decline is always expected because of merit increase.

由於績效增加，因此下降總是可以預料到的。

And also, we are very bullish about our business and when to invest in demand generation and manufacturing.

此外，我們對我們的業務以及何時投資需求產生和製造非常樂觀。

So that explains also the Q1 sequential decline in EPS.

這也解釋了第一季每股收益的連續下降。

And maybe you have a new -- Paulo?

也許你有一個新的－保羅？

Yes, thanks for your question, Chris.

是的，謝謝你的提問，克里斯。

So to think about the revenue split for modeling purposes, I think it's fair to assume the first have been at [7%] and the second half of 9%.

因此，為了考慮建模目的的收入分成，我認為可以合理地假設前者為 [7%]，後者為 9%。

And I can give you more color on the segments.

我可以為你提供更多關於各個部分的詳細資訊。

Electrical Americas will accelerate a bit in the second half because of the extra additional capacity we are adding.

由於我們增加了額外的產能，電氣美洲業務在下半年將會略有加速。

I want to say that we track those projects one by one.

我想說的是，我們正在逐一追蹤這些項目。

So far, so good.

到目前為止，一切都很好。

They are coming as we planned.

他們正如我們計劃的那樣到來了。

So that's the Electrical Americas, the biggest segment.

這就是美洲電氣市場最大的部分。

We also see that in the second half, most probably the electrical global business will pick up again with some recovery in the (inaudible) markets.

我們也看到，在下半年，隨著（聽不清楚）市場的復甦，全球電氣業務很可能會再次回升。

Aerospace is flattish over the year, well distributed.

航空航太業全年表現平穩，分佈均勻。

And then the vehicle markets, which tend to be high in the second half given the very easy comps of the end of the year.

然後是汽車市場，由於年底的同比銷量非常低，因此下半年汽車市場往往會走高。

So that's the way to think about it.

這就是思考這個問題的方式。

I appreciate that.

我很感激。

Really, really helpful.

真的，真的很有幫助。

And then if I could follow up with one -- maybe for Craig.

然後，如果我可以跟進一個問題——也許是針對 Craig。

I really appreciate all the updates on the demand outlook.

我非常感謝有關需求前景的所有更新。

Certainly a lot of good trends out there, but I wanted to ask about the supply side.

當然，有很多好的趨勢，但我想問一下供應方面的情況。

We've heard a lot about the product availability in the industry being incredibly tight the last few years now, I guess, in a switch gears, obviously, a lot of trends have emerged.

我們聽到很多關於過去幾年該行業產品供應極其緊張的消息，我想，在轉換過程中，顯然出現了許多趨勢。

Are these lead times starting to come down?

這些交貨時間是否開始縮短了？

And when you look at the industry-wide capacity [ads], do you think that's enough to meet demand?

當您查看整個行業的產能（廣告）時，您認為這足以滿足需求嗎？

Or do you think that this industry could still be short product beyond just the near term?

或者您認為這個行業在短期內仍然可能存在產品短缺的情況？

Thank you.

謝謝。

No, appreciate question.

不，我很感謝你提問。

It's actually a question that we've not gotten in a while.

這其實是我們很久沒有遇到的問題。

And quite frankly, it's not coming up on conversations we've had internally in a while, and that's a good thing.

坦白說，這個問題已經有一段時間沒有出現在我們內部的討論中了，這是一件好事。

I mean, we were spending weekly calls and daily calls with our suppliers on dealing with supply constraints.

我的意思是，我們每週甚至每天都會與供應商通話，討論如何解決供應限制問題。

And so I'd say lots of new capacity in place as well as suppliers.

所以我想說，有很多新的產能和供應商都已經到位。

And so I think from that piece of it, I think we have fairly good visibility and transparency in terms of the outlook for these markets and our suppliers have responded.

因此我認為從這部分來看，我們對這些市場的前景有相當好的可見性和透明度，我們的供應商也做出了回應。

Now as we think about our longer-term or midterm outlook, we're certainly constraining our view of the world largely because we do think labor continues to be somewhat constrained.

現在，當我們思考我們的長期或中期前景時，我們肯定會限制我們對世界的看法，這主要是因為我們確實認為勞動力繼續受到某種限制。

If you think about our industry's skilled trades, you've seen an industry mix shift and those industries have been growing labor at a faster rate than the overall economy.

如果你想想我們產業的技術工種，你會看到產業結構發生了變化，而且這些產業的勞動力成長速度快於整體經濟。

So we still think that is potentially the bottleneck for the industry and it's why we've quite frankly constrained our own view of the rate of growth that we think this market's going to see.

因此，我們仍然認為這可能是行業發展的瓶頸，這也是我們坦率地限制了對這個市場成長率的看法的原因。

It could be better if some of these labor constraints don't materialize.

如果這些勞動力限制沒有成為現實，情況可能會更好。

Thank you, Craig.

謝謝你，克雷格。

Appreciate that.

非常感謝。

Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

美國銀行的安德魯‧奧賓 (Andrew Obin)。

Just maybe a question for Craig.

這也許只是問 Craig 一個問題。

You're talking about Electrical Americas and the megaproject impact.

您正在談論 Electrical Americas 及其大型專案的影響。

So can you quantify or can you just talk about how much did megaprojects actually have an impact on your business in '24?

那麼您能否量化或只是談談大型專案在 24 年對您業務的實際影響有多大？

Appreciate the question, Andrew.

非常感謝您的提問，安德魯。

One of the reasons why we started reporting megaprojects a couple of years ago is that we saw this fundamental shift in our industry as the world was going through this massive CapEx rebuild cycle and the size of the projects have been much larger than what we've seen historically.

我們幾年前開始報導大型專案的原因之一是，我們看到產業發生了根本性轉變，因為世界正在經歷大規模的資本支出重建週期，專案規模遠遠超過我們從歷史上看。

And so we thought it was great to take this data and share it externally as a way of giving you an indication of what we're seeing in our business.

因此，我們認為獲取這些數據並對外分享是很好的一種方式，可以讓您了解我們在業務中看到的情況。

And the numbers are growing dramatically as what was reflected in the PowerPoint presentation.

正如 PowerPoint 簡報所反映的那樣，這個數字正在急劇增長。

But to your point specifically around 2024, our business doubled megaprojects in 2024 to over $600 million.

但正如您所說，具體到 2024 年左右，我們的業務將使大型專案數量翻一番，達到 6 億美元以上。

Our negotiation pipeline, up some 60%, if you recall, for the overall business, it's up 41%.

如果你還記得的話，我們的談判管道增加了約 60%，而就整體業務而言，則增加了 41%。

So we continue to see an increasing number of projects.

因此，我們不斷看到項目數量不斷增加。

The good news, as we've said many times, is that most of the benefit associated with these megaprojects is still out in front of us.

正如我們多次說過的，好消息是，這些大型專案帶來的大部分利益仍然擺在我們面前。

And as you saw in the data, the number of projects and the size of the products continue to grow.

正如您在數據中看到的那樣，專案數量和產品規模持續成長。

And we're really going through a fairly significant CapEx expansion cycle in the US for sure, but around the world, and it's really showing up in these megaprojects.

而我們確實在美國經歷了相當重要的資本支出擴張週期，但在世界各地，它確實在這些大型專案中得到體現。

If I look forward 2025, just to reinforce what Craig just said, we look at the Dodge data.

如果我展望 2025 年，為了強化 Craig 剛才所說的話，我們來看看道奇的數據。

And in 2024, there were 56 projects that started and around $135 billion in total.

到2024年，將有56個項目開工，總投資額約1,350億美元。

And their forecast for this year for 2025 is actually that we're going to reach over $300 billion in 114 projects.

他們今年對 20​​25 年的預測實際上是我們將在 114 個項目中達到 3000 億美元以上。

So even if we tend to haircut the starts, we don't believe it all starts is almost double the rate we saw in 2024.

因此，即使我們傾向於削減開工率，我們也不認為所有開工率都會達到 2024 年的兩倍。

So I think the message from Craig, I think the key point is the longevity of the growth cycle ahead of us.

所以我認為克雷格傳達的訊息的關鍵點在於我們未來成長週期的持續時間。

I think that's a good way to think about it.

我認為這是一種很好的思考方式。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

And just a question on sort of supply chain, the state of supply chain, and I appreciate that you guys are watching.

這只是關於供應鏈、供應鏈狀況的一個問題，我很感謝大家的關注。

But we recently heard a comment that effectively, US market is stacking up capacity, supply chain capacity on the electrical side from all over the world.

但我們最近聽到一種評論說，美國市場實際上正在從世界各地累積電氣方面的產能和供應鏈產能。

And the constraint is that while the industry leaders are certainly adding capacity, you still need to incentivize the supply chain maybe with better pricing and better margin for them to add capacity.

而限制因素在於，雖然業界領導者肯定在增加產能，但你仍需要透過更好的定價和更好的利潤來激勵供應鏈增加產能。

Could you just maybe unpack to us what it is you're saying, how are you incentivizing your supply chain to add capacity, in particular at the components at a bottleneck to more critical components?

您能否向我們解釋一下您所說的內容，您如何激勵您的供應鏈增加產能，特別是從處於瓶頸狀態的部件到更關鍵的部件？

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Just maybe building on my commentary earlier, I think today, the nature of our conversations with suppliers is really providing them the visibility and the certainty that they need to make the investments to support the growth that we're forecasting.

也許基於我先前的評論，我認為今天，我們與供應商的對話的性質實際上為他們提供了他們需要的可見性和確定性，以便他們進行投資來支持我們預測的成長。

And so we're not particularly providing any specific financial incentives, but we are working much more closely with our suppliers in terms of visibility and we're working through multiyear agreements, which are backed up by multiyear agreements that we also have with our customers.

因此，我們並沒有特別提供任何具體的財務激勵措施，但我們在透明度方面與供應商的合作更加緊密，我們正在透過多年協議開展工作，這些協議也得到了我們與客戶簽訂的多年協議的支持。

But I'd say, by and large, this notion that the US is stacking up capacity from the rest of the world, there's probably some truth to that because clearly, we're seeing a much stronger economy and much more significant growth in the US compared to the rest of the world.

但我想說，總的來說，美國正在從世界其他國家吸收產能的說法可能有一定的道理，因為很明顯，我們看到美國經濟更加強勁，經濟成長更加顯著。 。

That's actually a good balance for Eaton.

對於伊頓來說，這實際上是一個很好的平衡。

That's a good thing for us.

這對我們來說是件好事。

So that comment, it doesn't surprise me, but this capacity is simply flowing to where the real demand is.

因此，這個評論並不讓我感到驚訝，但這種產能只是流向了真正有需求的地方。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Steve Tusa, JP Morgan.

摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

The pipeline you guys talked about and these megaprojects, what does that mean for orders as you look forward over the course of this year?

你們談到的這些管道和大型項目，對於今年的訂單來說意味著什麼？

I mean, is this -- obviously, this pipeline keeps growing and it's massive on.

我的意思是，這是——顯然，這個管道不斷增長，而且規模巨大。

The backlog is a flat this year, even book-to-bill in a bit above 1.

今年的積壓訂單量持平，訂單出貨比也略高於 1。

But like, what is the visibility on these megaprojects and things like that actually like converting into another reacceleration in orders?

但是，這些大型項目和類似項目的可見性如何，實際上是否會轉化為訂單的另一次加速？

Thanks, Steve.

謝謝，史蒂夫。

This is Paulo.

這是保羅。

I would say that it's very difficult to forecast orders for megaprojects.

我想說，預測大型專案的訂單非常困難。

It'll be a bit speculative, but I can give you a sense on what you're seeing.

這會有點推測，但我可以讓你了解你所看到的東西。

As Craig mentioned, with our negotiation pipeline growing 60%, that's what gave us confidence between announcement and revenues, between three and five years, while we've said in the past and since we started falling those prices in '21, '22.

正如Craig 所提到的，我們的談判管道成長了60%，這讓我們對公告和收入之間（三到五年之間）充滿信心，而我們過去曾說過，自從我們在21 年、22年就開始降低這些價格。

It's to be expected than now, we start to see the effect.

現在可以預料的是，我們開始看到效果了。

And as Craig said, our sales doubled in '24 from megaprojects versus '23.

正如克雷格所說，與2023年相比，2024年我們大型專案的銷售額翻了一番。

Now to make -- to pinpoint the order entry for that would be very difficult, and I don't want to speculate on it.

現在要準確確定該訂單條目將非常困難，而且我不想對此進行猜測。

So the best way for us to understand this longevity of the cycle is to continue to tell you the megaprojects we see and how the negotiation finalized our evolving.

因此，我們了解這一週期長度的最好方法是繼續告訴你我們看到的大型專案以及談判如何最終確定我們的進展。

Okay.

好的。

And then lastly on this data center saying, the starts you say -- you talked about nearly doubling in '24.

最後，關於這個資料中心，您說的開始 - 您談到了'24年幾乎翻了一番。

I guess your orders' up 75%.

我猜您的訂單增加了 75%。

So I mean, are you shipping to the starts or are you shipping to add to at some point in the middle of the project as it gets built?

所以我的意思是，您是在開始的時候就運送貨物，還是在項目建設過程中的某個時間點運送貨物進行添加？

Or are you shipping blanket orders from the hyperscalers where they order a big number and then they distribute as they go?

或者您正在從超大規模供應商發送綜合訂單，他們訂購大量訂單，然後隨機分配？

Like, how much visibility do you have as to when you're actually shipping to these guys?

例如，對於您實際向這些人發貨的時間，您有多少了解？

Yes.

是的。

So thanks for the question.

感謝您的提問。

Again, I think the best way to answer your question is we have multiyear visibility on the forecast.

再次強調，我認為回答你的問題的最佳方法是我們對預測有多年的了解。

Craig was talking about the forecast we give to our suppliers.

克雷格正在談論我們向供應商提供的預測。

We're also a supplier to the big data center operators.

我們也是大型資料中心營運商的供應商。

We were given a forecast.

我們得到了一份預測。

In some cases, we have hard commitments from them.

在某些情況下，他們向我們做出了嚴格的承諾。

So that's the visibility we have.

這就是我們所擁有的可見性。

In terms of [sending] the product, we're going to send the product as the project requires.

關於產品發送，我們將按照項目要求發送產品。

We don't ship in all -- if the site is not ready.

如果站點尚未準備好，我們將不會發貨。

We follow the construction of the data center and by saying that, some of our products could come earlier, like the transformers, the switchgear.

我們關注資料中心的建設，並且這樣說，我們的一些產品可能會更早出現，例如變壓器，開關設備。

And then the UPS is what goes inside the server room and comes later.

然後，UPS 就進入伺服器機房，稍後再使用。

So in different phases of the project, I would say.

所以我想說，在專案的不同階段。

(multiple speakers) --

（多位發言者）——

We talked about a start and it's a shovel that goes in the ground.

我們談論的是一個開始，它是一把插入地面的鏟子。

And so we're not shipping anything at that point, but that's when a project becomes real and one of projects that you can truly count on it as a project that's likely going to be completed.

因此，我們此時不會運送任何東西，但那時項目就會變成現實，而且您真正可以依靠它作為有可能完成的項目之一。

Yes.

是的。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Thanks a lot, guys.

非常感謝大家。

Jeffrey Sprague, Vertical Research.

傑弗瑞‧斯普拉格 (Jeffrey Sprague)，垂直研究。

Yes, thanks.

是的，謝謝。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Maybe just one more on data centers from maybe -- there's others coming in the pipeline.

也許只是關於資料中心的另一個問題——還有其他問題正在醞釀中。

But also just historically, when we were talking about megaprojects, it did not include data centers because of that $1 billion threshold.

但從歷史上看，當我們談論大型專案時，由於 10 億美元的門檻，它並不包括資料中心。

But now, for example, we've got Amazon doing this $16 billion campus in Mississippi and other things.

但現在，例如，亞馬遜在密西西比州建造了耗資 160 億美元的園區並建造了其他設施。

I just wondered if you could give us a sense of how much data center is now and the megaproject number that you're sharing with us today, if you have visibility on that?

我只是想知道您是否可以告訴我們現在的資料中心有多少，以及您今天與我們分享的大型專案的數量，您是否對此有了解？

Yes, the exact number -- first of all, your thesis is absolutely correct, Jeff, that as these data center projects have become bigger, some of them are now falling into the category of megaprojects.

是的，確切的數字——首先，傑夫，你的論點完全正確，隨著這些資料中心專案變得越來越大，其中一些現在屬於大型專案的類別。

And so clearly, we're seeing data centers show up in that category as well.

顯然，我們看到資料中心也出現在該類別中。

I don't have the exact percentage (technical difficulty) Chandni?

我不知道確切的百分比（技術難度）Chandni？

As you showed in the slide as well, it's 17%.

正如您在幻燈片中所展示的，該比例為 17%。

So 17%.

所以是 17%。

But the other thing I'm just going to tell the group and we shared this slide in one of the earlier earnings calls, that we track megaprojects $1 billion above, but we also track the balance of projects, which is from $25 billion to $1 billion.

但我要告訴大家的另一件事，我們在之前的一次財報電話會議上分享了這張幻燈片，我們追蹤了10 億美元以上的大型項目，但我們也追蹤了項目的餘額，從250 億美元到100 億美元。

And we're seeing the same trends in that segment of the market.

我們在那個市場領域也看到了同樣的趨勢。

We're seeing tremendous growth as well in projects and all these other categories.

我們也看到項目和所有其他類別都出現了巨大的成長。

And so clearly, we're seeing more significant growth in megaprojects, but we are, in fact, seeing very strong growth in the balance of the segment as well.

顯然，我們看到大型專案的成長更加顯著，但事實上，我們也看到該領域的平衡成長非常強勁。

Great.

偉大的。

And then just looking -- obviously, you want to save most of it for us, but Paulo, I'm just thinking about Electrical Global specifically.

然後看看 - 顯然，你想為我們節省大部分資金，但是 Paulo，我只是在具體考慮 Electrical Global。

I know you have an aspiration to improve the margins there over time.

我知道您渴望隨著時間的推移提高利潤率。

Obviously, there's just scales and economic advantages to Americas that maybe can't ever be replicated in the global franchise.

顯然，美洲的規模和經濟優勢也許永遠無法在全球特許經營中複製。

But what could you share with us about your view of what can be done to kind of improve the margins in Electrical Global?

但是，您能否與我們分享一下您對於如何提高 Electrical Global 利潤率的看法？

And maybe at least narrow the gap versus the big brother in the Americas.

或許至少可以縮小與美洲老大哥的差距。

Thanks for the questions.

感謝您的提問。

So first of all, in March, we're going to be talking about our long-range commitments until 2030 for every segment.

首先，在三月份，我們將討論每個領域到 2030 年的長期承諾。

So you're going to have clarity, not only in electrical global, but every segment we report, see an improvement, and this is based on two biggest group of actions.

因此，您不僅會清楚地了解全球電氣情況，而且我們報告的每個部分都會看到改進，這是基於兩組最大的行動。

One is the benefits of the restructuring that start to hit the P&L and help us.

一是重組的好處開始影響損益表並對我們有幫助。

And the other part is as we start shipping those large orders that we have on the data center side specifically, we're also going to have more productivity gains from the volume coming up.

另一部分是，當我們開始運送資料中心方面的大訂單時，我們的生產力也將因訂單量的增加而提高。

There are many other things we can and we'll do.

我們還能夠做很多其他的事情，而且我們也會做很多其他的事情。

One thing is to continue to complete our portfolio step b step, build the same strength we have in North America, but all also continue to drive our operations.

一件事是繼續一步步完善我們的投資組合，打造我們在北美同樣的實力，但同時也繼續推動我們的營運。

As Craig said, we are never satisfied.

正如克雷格所說，我們永不滿足。

We never get complacent.

我們從不自滿。

We always drive improvements.

我們始終致力於改進。

There's still a lot to be done there, but not only in global, even Electrical Americas, there's a lot for us to go do.

還有很多工作要做，但不僅在全球，甚至美洲電氣領域，我們都有很多事情要做。

And the only thing I'll add to that, Paulo, is you're absolutely right.

保羅，我唯一要補充的是，你完全正確。

You heard Olivier's commentary.

你聽到了奧利維爾的評論。

Mix has been a bit of a headwind as well for our business there.

Mix 對我們在那裡的業務也造成了一點阻力。

When you see obviously some of the data around the MOEM segment, the manufacturing segment, which tends to be a much higher percentage of our business in Europe.

當您明顯看到有關 MOEM 部門（製造部門）的一些數據時，我們發現該部門在我們歐洲的業務中所佔的比例要高得多。

And those markets being down to the extent that they have has really hurt that particular region from our profitability.

這些市場的低迷確實損害了我們在該地區的獲利能力。

So as that market begins to normalize and recover, we should also see a natural improvement in profitability there as well.

因此，隨著該市場開始正常化和復甦，我們也應該看到其獲利能力的自然改善。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Deane Dray, RBC.

加拿大皇家銀行 (RBC) 的 Deane Dray。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

I realize this is a rebuild time story here and it's a moving target.

我意識到這是一個重建時間的故事，而且它是一個移動的目標。

But just when you talk about tariffs, potential impact, vulnerabilities, preparations you've gone through already?

但是當您談到關稅、潛在影響、脆弱性、您已經做過哪些準備？

Yeah, I can talk about that, Deane.

是的，我可以談論這個，迪恩。

So first of all, we are on top of it, we are ready.

首先，我們已經做好準備了，並且處於領先地位。

We know potentially from depending on what's announced, we know exactly what to trigger.

我們知道，根據所宣布的內容，我們確切地知道會觸發什麼。

We moved our production much closer to the consumption side.

我們將生產轉移到更靠近消費方的地方。

So that decreases the impact of the tariffs.

這樣就降低了關稅的影響。

But we have a playbook.

但我們有劇本。

We've done that before, we are ready.

我們以前就這樣做過，我們已經準備好了。

We know exactly where to apply in our commercial actions and we do.

我們清楚知道在商業活動中應該應用什麼，我們也確實這麼做了。

We're fully compensated with commercial actions, if necessary.

如果有必要，我們將透過商業行動給予充分補償。

Hopefully not necessary, but if they come to force, we're going to comply and we're going to compensate the commercial actions.

希望這不是必要的，但如果他們採取強制措施，我們將遵守，並對商業行為進行補償。

Great, that's helpful.

很好，很有幫助。

I'll be staying tuned there.

我會繼續關注。

And then Jeff was right, there was more data center questions, so I just -- first of all, that (inaudible) was really helpful.

然後傑夫是對的，還有更多有關資料中心的問題，所以我只是 — — 首先，那（聽不清楚）真的很有幫助。

I appreciate all those specifics and Craig, I also appreciate the confidence that you've expressed today about the long-term growth prospects in data center.

我很欣賞這些細節，克雷格，我也欣賞你今天表達的對資料中心長期成長前景的信心。

Would have loved to have heard Monday as well, but so we guided today.

本來也希望在周一聽到這個消息，但是我們今天就給了指導。

Just kind of share for us wha the teams are watching for for any changes at the margin in terms of build-out expectations?I

能否與我們分享各團隊正在關注的建設預期方面的任何變化？

mean, we're watching hyperscale CapEx growth and you can check the boxes at that mine in the past couple of weeks.

意思是，我們正在關注超大規模的資本支出成長，你可以在過去幾週檢查礦場的情況。

Help out -- your customers have been asking you for five-year supply agreements.

提供協助－您的客戶一直要求您簽訂五年供應協議。

Just remind us, those are not take or pay, just how are those set up and whether there's been anything how you're watching those play out or any other indicators you think are important?

只是提醒我們，這些不是索取或支付，只是它們是如何設置的，以及您是否觀察到它們如何發揮作用，或者有任何其他您認為重要的指標？

Thanks for the question, Deane.

謝謝你的提問，迪恩。

I would say that the order that comes from our customers to accelerate and whatever we can do also in terms of technology through modular solutions that could accelerate our build.

我想說的是，來自客戶的訂單加速了我們能做的事情，在技術方面，透過模組化解決方案也可以加速我們的建設。

You heard what Craig said that the industry found ways to accelerate the build-out, which is great, but they're still sitting on seven years of backlog as of today.

您聽到克雷格說過，該行業找到了加速建設的方法，這很好，但截至今天，他們仍然有七年的積壓訂單。

So there's more to be done there.

因此還有很多工作要做。

In terms of the agreements is -- and I would say, as we look back the last years, we haven't seen a single cancellation here.

就協議而言——我想說，回顧過去幾年，我們還沒有看到任何一項協議被取消。

So most of the discussions we have, including after the news this week is about continuing to invest note, no distraction on the news this week, and continue to build.

因此，我們進行的大部分討論，包括本週新聞之後的討論，都是關於繼續投資，不要被本週的新聞分散注意力，並繼續建設。

And you see how our negotiation pipeline development is developing and our backlog as well.

而且您可以看到我們的談判管道開發以及我們的積壓工作進度。

So I think the way for continues to be to accelerate the build-outs.

因此我認為繼續加快建設才是解決之道。

The only that I would add to that, and Paulo was absolutely right, the things that we were concerned about prior to Monday, we're still concerned about today and the constraints around whether that power availability, whether that site availability, whether that's labor availability, or where there will be constraints in supply chain.

我唯一想補充的是，保羅說得完全正確，我們在周一之前擔心的事情，我們今天仍然擔心，以及電力供應、場地供應、勞動力等限制因素。

And as I mentioned, we do believe this market is fading and quite frankly, the numbers that we're getting from our customers are much higher than the numbers we're baking into our forecast.

正如我所提到的，我們確實相信這個市場正在衰退，坦白說，我們從客戶那裡得到的數字遠高於我們預測的數字。

But we do believe there will be constraints along the way and those are the things that we were worried about prior to Monday.

但我們確實相信這一路上會遇到一些限制，而這些正是我們在周一之前擔心的事情。

Those are things that we're still worried about.

這些是我們仍然擔心的事情。

I think what happened on Monday with DeepSeek, I think it's way too early to know how that will influence the evolution of this market.

我認為週一 DeepSeek 發生的事情，現在判斷它將如何影響這個市場的發展還為時過早。

But as I said in my commentary, history repeats itself.

但正如我在評論中所說，歷史會重演。

It should mean faster growth, faster adoption, and it could be a good day.

這意味著更快的成長、更快的採用，這可能是美好的一天。

That's really helpful.

這真的很有幫助。

Appreciate it.

非常感謝。

See you in March.

三月見。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for the details.

大家早安，感謝您的詳細資料。

We appreciate all these end markets perspective.

我們欣賞所有這些終端市場的觀點。

I'm just maybe switching gears to aerospace.

我可能正轉向航空航天業。

So you called out the impact of the Boeing strike in the fourth quarter just to quote you, you are forecasting a deceleration to [79%], still very, very healthy.

因此，您提到了波音罷工對第四季度的影響，並引用您的話說，您預測經濟成長將減速至 [79%]，但仍然非常非常健康。

But given the moving pieces that we have here, I just wondered if maybe just give us some perspective on what you're baking in for OE versus aftermarkets and perhaps commercial versus military?

但考慮到我們在這裡所面臨的變化，我只是想知道，您是否能為我們提供一些關於您為原始設備製造商和售後市場，以及商用和軍用市場制定的目標？

Okay.

好的。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

So we are -- as you pointed out, the market is really growing.

所以正如您所指出的，市場確實在成長。

I think it's important that we give you the breakdown.

我認為向您提供詳細情況非常重要。

To be specific here, we see a low-double-digit in OEM and we see high-single-digit in aftermarket.

具體來說，我們看到 OEM 的成長速度為低兩位數，而售後市場的成長速度為高個位數。

And then in OE, we see low-double digits for both military and commercial.

然後在 OE 中，我們看到軍事和商業的成長都達到了兩位數以下。

And in terms of the build-outs, we watch customers are doing.

在建設方面，我們關注客戶的做法。

We are ready for the ramp, including Boeing's ramp and also Airbus' ramp for CapEx.

我們已經做好了準備，包括波音的坡道和空中巴士的資本支出坡道。

We don't take their buildouts as per face value.

我們不會只從表面來看他們的建設。

So we are a little more cautious in our forecast.

因此，我們的預測更加謹慎。

That was the reason that in 2024, with all the difficulties in the industry in the year and strikes, we still met our commitments for growth for the full year.

這就是為什麼在 2024 年，儘管產業面臨許多困難和罷工，我們仍然履行了全年成長的承諾。

I'm sorry, did you include the aftermarket sales?

抱歉，您包括售後銷售嗎？

Can you repeat your question?

你能重複一下你的問題嗎？

I couldn't hear that.

我沒聽見。

Sorry, I heard the OE comments, but what about the aftermarket comments?

抱歉，我聽到了 OE 的評論，但是售後市場的評論呢？

Aftermarket will be high-single digits.

售後市場將會達到高個位數。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then my follow-on is around utility.

接下來我要討論的是實用性。

It seems like it's normalizing down to like a high-single-digit range for 2025, it's been down double digits for a long time.

看起來它正在逐漸正常化，到 2025 年將下降到一個高個位數的範圍，而之前它已經長期處於兩位數的下降趨勢。

Just wondering maybe just a bit more perspective on what you see in your utility end markets?

我只是想知道您是否對公用事業終端市場有更多的看法？

And maybe just kind of thinking about that capacity expansion as that comes online, is there potential for utility to be accelerated as you can [reduce] some of that backlog?

也許只是考慮一下產能擴張，隨著產能的上線，是否有可能加速效用，因為你可以[減少]一些積壓？

Okay.

好的。

Well, thanks for the question.

嗯，謝謝你的提問。

Again, I would say -- I would answer in two steps.

我再說一次——我將分兩步回答。

The first one, I'm going to remind you and everyone what drives the industry and utilities and then I'm going to talk about the effects at Eaton.

首先，我要提醒大家是什麼推動了這個產業和公用事業的發展，然後我將談談對伊頓的影響。

So in the first part, I would say what drives growth in utility distribution where we play, there's a big portion of replacement of aging infrastructure that you probably heard about.

因此，在第一部分中，我想說，推動我們所在的公用事業分銷成長的因素是，您可能聽說過很大一部分是老化基礎設施的更換。

The second thing that drives the growth is also the hardening of the resilience part.

推動成長的第二個因素也是彈性部分的強化。

So think about all the natural events, fires, floods, hurricanes, et cetera, (inaudible) are getting ready to be more resilient to face those issues.

所以想想所有的自然事件，火災、洪水、颶風等等，（聽不清楚）都準備好更有韌性地面對這些問題。

The third piece is about the increased energy consumption and also that part of that increase also is a data center story, but there's more to it.

第三部分是關於能源消耗的增加，而能源消耗增加的一部分也與資料中心有關，但還不止於此。

So that's how the industry plays.

這就是這個行業的運作方式。

If you move that to Eaton the effects above that, our company, you know that we are heavily weighted to the US distribution network.

如果您將其轉移到伊頓，那麼對我們公司的影響就在於，我們非常依賴美國分銷網絡。

So we expect this CapEx to be in the high-single digits, and it's consistent with third-party forecasts like SMP, EEI or et cetera.

因此，我們預期該資本支出將達到高個位數，並且與 SMP、EEI 等第三方預測一致。

And we think this high-single digit, I want to give a little more clarity because I think it's important as you compare Eaton to other electrical players.

我們認為這個高個位數，我想給出更清晰的說明，因為我認為在將伊頓與其他電氣公司進行比較時這一點很重要。

We see within this high-single-digit market, we see strong double-digit growth, the offers, which is most of what we do.

我們看到，在這個高個位數的市場中，我們看到了強勁的兩位數成長，這些報價就是我們所做的大部分內容。

So think about switch gear regulators, rig closers, capacity.

因此，請考慮開關設備調節器、鑽孔機關閉器和容量。

So that part of the market will continue to grow strongly double digits.

因此該部分市場將持續保持兩位數的強勁成長。

And there is an offset more on the lower value add of the chain, which is related to a single-phase transformers, those fall transformers, online installation equipment, more the hardware piece that some of our competitors are pretty focused on.

而鏈條中較低的附加價值部分則存在更多的偏移，這與單相變壓器、落地變壓器、線上安裝設備以及一些競爭對手非常關注的硬體部分有關。

So it's a high-single-digit growth for us but there is a double-digit side that we like the most and the other part of the market is growing not so fastly.

因此，對我們來說，這是一個高個位數的成長，但我們最喜歡的是兩位數的成長，而市場的其他部分成長速度並沒有那麼快。

If you go outside North America, if you look at a global, outside China continues to invest very heavily in utility, right?

如果您走出北美，放眼全球，中國以外的地區繼續在公用事業方面投入大量資金，對嗎？

Both in generation and renewables and all of these transmissions distribution in China.

無論是發電、再生能源或所有這些輸電分佈都在中國。

Electricity consumption is increasing, 7% is very big for a country that side.

電力消耗正在增加，7%對一個國家來說已經是很大的數字了。

So we also expect a strong growth coming

因此我們也預期未來將出現強勁成長

(technical difficulty).

（技術難度）。

In terms of capacity, we as part of our investments, we are also adding capacity to utility, and we do that in a modular fashion.

在容量方面，作為投資的一部分，我們也正在增加公用事業的容量，而且我們以模組化的方式進行。

We do that in a way that can also serve other markets like a transformer could go into data center.

我們這樣做的目的是為了服務其他市場，例如變壓器可以進入資料中心。

We go into facilities.

我們進入設施。

Some of the switchgear can be used in other end markets.

一些開關設備可用於其他終端市場。

So we feel good about our prospects and the advancements we are making.

因此，我們對我們的前景和所取得的進步感到滿意。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks, Paulo.

謝謝，保羅。

Super helpful.

超有幫助。

Nicole DeBlase, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的妮可‧德布拉斯 (Nicole DeBlase)。

Yes, thanks.

是的，謝謝。

Good morning, guys.

大家早安。

Maybe just starting with Americas.

或許只是從美洲開始。

Margin expansion there really impresses yet again this quarter.

本季的利潤率擴張再次令人印象深刻。

I guess the 2025 guidance on the embedded like 10 to 40 [bed] severe on year expansion, could you talk a little bit about what's going on there?

我猜想 2025 年嵌入式指導方針將是每年擴張 10 到 40 個 [床位]，您能談談那裡發生的事情嗎？

Is there maybe some conservatism embedded or are margins just getting to a point where it's going to be tougher to expand them from these best-in-class levels?

是否存在某種保守主義傾向，或者利潤率是否已經達到一個臨界點，以致於從一流水平進一步擴大利潤率將變得更加困難？

Thanks, Nicole.

謝謝，妮可。

So I would say there is always space for us to improve margins and it's also valid for the Electrical Americas.

所以我想說，我們總是有提高利潤的空間，這對美洲電氣業務來說也是如此。

Just think about all the manufacturing efficiencies we can generate on existing facilities, but also the other facilities we are adding to the business.

試想我們可以在現有設施上產生的所有製造效率，以及我們正在為業務添加的其他設施。

There's still more for us to go do there so I don't think this is the top margin for this segment.

我們還有許多工作要做，因此我認為這並不是該部分的最高利潤。

I would reiterate that.

我謹重申這一點。

This is one.

這是一個。

For 2025, most of the growth will come from volume.

到 2025 年，大部分成長將來自於數量。

So if you compare to prior year starting last year, we already had more volume than pricing in our composition for growth.

因此，如果與去年同期相比，我們的銷售量已經超過了成長成分中的定價。

This year, the vast majority would be volume in our breakdown, which is something for you to consider.

今年，我們細分的絕大部分都是數量，這是值得您考慮的。

As pricing normalizes, it's to be expected.

隨著價格正常化，這是可以預料的。

And this year as we are adding capacity in the 20 projects, startups and start-up costs, so that's what makes the comparable basis.

今年，我們增加了 20 個專案的產能、啟動專案和啟動成本，這就是可比較的基礎。

Not so strong year over year, but as Craig said before, we always drive ourselves to a higher number.

與去年同期相比，雖然不是那麼強勁，但正如 Craig 之前所說，我們始終努力達到更高的目標。

And this is not different for Electrical Americas internally.

這對於 Electrical Americas 內部來說也沒有什麼不同。

Thanks, Paulo.

謝謝，保羅。

That makes sense.

這很有道理。

And then you mentioned appetite for M&A in the prepared remarks.

然後您在準備好的演講中提到了對併購的興趣。

Could you talk a little bit about the current pipeline and areas of greatest interest?

您能否談談目前的管道和最感興趣的領域？

Sure.

當然。

I would say our major areas of interest continues to be data centers, utilities, and aerospace.

我想說我們的主要感興趣的領域仍然是資料中心、公用事業和航空航天。

So electric and aerospace.

因此是電動和航空航天。

And in terms of the size of acquisitions, what we are interested in doing in the short and midterm is to look at our bolt-on acquisitions that can accelerate our organic strategy.

就收購規模而言，我們短期和中期感興趣的是研究可以加速我們有機策略的附加收購。

So Electrical and Aerospace would be the answer and the size will be more like a bolt-on.

因此，電氣和航空航天將是答案，並且尺寸將更像螺栓固定。

And to make a point, bolt-on definition for Eaton moved over time as well, since we have a bigger company and bigger evaluation.

需要說明的是，隨著公司規模的擴大和評估範圍的擴大，伊頓的附加定義也隨著時間的推移而改變了。

But it continues to be the focus of the team.

但它仍然是團隊關注的重點。

Thank you, Paulo.

謝謝你，保羅。

I'll pass it on.

我會傳達的。

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的喬·里奇。

Hey, guys, good morning.

嘿，大家早安。

So I'll focus both my questions on Electrical Americas margins.

因此，我將把我的問題集中在 Electrical Americas 的利潤上。

And if you go back a year ago, rewind the clock, you were expecting margins to be about 300 basis points lower than where we ended up in 2024.

如果回顧一年前，回顧過去，您預計利潤率將比 2024 年的水平低約 300 個基點。

So I'm just curious, I know that growth was slightly better, but what other levers really kind of drove that margin expansion this past year?

所以我很好奇，我知道成長情況稍微好一些，但去年還有哪些因素真正推動了利潤率的擴大？

Yes.

是的。

First of all, I would say I'm very proud of that team.

首先，我想說我為這支球隊感到非常自豪。

They really executed it super well.

他們確實執行得非常好。

I think that's the first thing I want to say.

我想這是我想說的第一件事。

And they're executing on the top line, they're also executing well in their operations.

他們在營收方面表現優異，在營運方面也表現良好。

So they run the business better than what we expected in the operations.

因此，他們的業務運作比我們預期的要好。

This is one thing, and we could drive outsourced supply chain to better results.

這是一方面，我們可以推動外包供應鏈取得更好的成果。

So overall, there's an operational performance improvement for the business that drove the extra margin.

因此整體而言，企業的營運績效有所改善，從而帶來了額外的利潤。

And that's how we are wired for this year as well.

這也是我們今年的計畫。

We are dealing with those capacity ramp-ups, which again, are going well, they've been developing very well.

我們正在處理這些產能提升，而且進展順利，發展得非常好。

But the team is focused there and they would be disappointed if they cannot beat their own numbers.

但球隊的注意力都集中在那裡，如果他們不能擊敗自己的對手，他們會感到失望。

So the spirit is still the same.

所以精神還是一樣的。

Got it.

知道了。

That's helpful, Paulo.

這很有幫助，保羅。

And then i guess, a\just one follow-up.

然後我想，只需要一個後續行動。

So the backlog is up 29% year over year.

因此積壓訂單年增了29％。

I mean, it's hard to imagine that the margins and the backlog today are lower than the margins in the backlog on 12 months ago, but I don't want to put words in your mouth.

我的意思是，很難想像今天的利潤率和積壓訂單比 12 個月前的積壓訂單利潤率更低，但我不想強加給你話。

So is there any color you can kind of give us on how the margins look like today in the backlog versus a year ago?

那麼，您能否向我們介紹一下目前積壓訂單的利潤率與一年前相比如何？

No, they are in line.

不，他們在排隊。

They are in line with what we are presenting today.

它們與我們今天所呈現的內容一致。

Largely in line.

大體一致。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

All right, thank you, guys.

好的，謝謝大家。

Scott Davis, Melius Research.

戴維斯 (Scott Davis)，Melius Research。

Hey, guys.

嘿，大家好。

Can you give us a sense, a couple of cleanup items here, but the $990 million of CapEx, how much of that is growth versus maintenance?

您能否為我們介紹一下，這裡有幾個清理項目，但是 9.9 億美元的資本支出中，有多少是成長，有多少是維護？

Is that kind of [700, 600] growth trust maintenance?

那是那種 [700, 600] 成長信託維持嗎？

Is that the way to think about it?

是這樣思考嗎？

I don't think we've (technical difficulty) our debt up in the past.

我認為我們過去沒有遇到過（技術難題）債務增加的情況。

No, actually the $900 million is going to be gross CapEx.

不，實際上 9 億美元是總資本支出。

The large proportion of that is going to be growth.

其中很大一部分將是成長。

The team is doing a good job actually, rationalizing our CapEx investments.

實際上，團隊做得很好，合理化了我們的資本支出投資。

We have financial detail that has been a principle that Craig has implemented for a number of years.

我們擁有財務細節，這是 Craig 多年來一直貫徹的原則。

So most of the of the capital ex would be growth.

因此，大部分資本支出將用於成長。

I would say 80%.

我想說的是 80%。

That sounds about right.

聽起來是對的。

Just completely different from the conversation today, but does it still make the same sense to have e-mobility as a standalone segment today as it did when -- gosh, I can't remember when it was, like six years ago or maybe seven years ago.

與今天的討論完全不同，但今天將電動車作為一個獨立的領域是否仍然有意義，就像當時一樣——天哪，我不記得那是什麼時候了，比如六年前，或者七年前幾年前。

It seems -- does it still make the most sense to add that as a standalone and operationally standalone?

看起來——將其添加為獨立且可獨立操作的版本是否仍然最有意義？

So there are two questions.

因此有兩個問題。

The first one is how do we run that; that's a separate question.

第一個問題是我們如何運行它；這是另一個問題。

From a reporting standpoint, the dynamic of those two businesses is very different and we want to show to our investors how those two businesses evolve thing.

從報告的角度來看，這兩項業務的動態非常不同，我們希望向投資者展示這兩項業務是如何發展的。

Again, they have, say, different margin profiles, different growth profile.

再者，他們有不同的利潤率狀況、不同的成長狀況。

So externally, we'll keep doing what we do today.

因此就外部而言，我們將繼續做我們今天所做的事情。

I think the way we run it for synergies, in our SG&A savings, and we also use up the elapses one, have you won another.

我認為我們為了實現綜效而營運的方式，在我們的銷售、一般及行政開支節省中，我們也用完了過去的開支，你是否又贏了呢？

We experienced lower demand on EVs and then our internal combustion engine business could benefit on the programs in the long run.

我們對電動車的需求下降，因此我們的內燃機業務可以從長期專案中受益。

We believe we continue to give you the transparency we started giving you years ago.

我們相信，我們將繼續為您提供幾年前就開始提供的透明度。

I think it will be beneficial for all.

我認為這對所有人都有好處。

The technologies in many ways, is more akin to our electrical business than it is to our vehicle business.

從很多方面來看，這些技術與我們的電氣業務比與我們的汽車業務更為相似。

And so the hardware piece, obviously much greater affinity with legacy vehicle, but from a technology and a product standpoint, much greater connectivity to the electrical businesses.

因此，從硬體部分來看，顯然與傳統車輛的親和力更強，但從技術和產品的角度來看，與電氣業務的連接性更強。

That makes sense.

這很有道理。

We'll see you guys have March.

我們會在三月見到你們。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Hi, good afternoon.

嗨，下午好。

I know it's been an hour, so I'll keep these questions short.

我知道已經過了一個小時了，所以我就簡短地回答這些問題。

First one, just on slide 6.

第一個，就在投影片 6 上。

Again, I just wanted to double check the 45% data center sales growth number on the left-hand side.

再次，我只是想仔細檢查左側 45% 的資料中心銷售成長數字。

Just wanted to check what the sort of base revenue figure for 2023 that applied to.

只是想檢查一下適用於 2023 年的基本收入數字。

I know you've given a sort of $3.3 billion number before, but 45% growth on that would imply only electrical sales growth was from data center, which I think it was broader based than that.

我知道您之前給出 33 億美元的數字，但 45% 的成長率意味著只有電力銷售成長來自資料中心，而我認為這比這更為廣泛。

Any sort of help around that, please?

請問有什麼幫助嗎？

I appreciate the question, Julian.

我很感謝你提出這個問題，朱利安。

And I know sometimes it's tough to make all the math but numbers that we report as a percentage of the total company, it's not only data centers; it includes the IT channel.

我知道有時做所有的計算很困難，但我們報告的數字佔整個公司的百分比不僅僅是資料中心；其中包括IT渠道。

So you can't take that number and extrapolate what happens in the bouts of the businesses because that data center number is not only the data center segment.

因此，您不能根據該數字推斷業務波動時發生的情況，因為資料中心的數字不僅僅是資料中心部分。

But way to think about, I think what you're trying to get to is that what was the growth in the balance of the businesses when you strip out data centers?And

但是想想看，我想你想了解的是，當你剝離資料中心時，業務平衡的成長是多少？

what I would tell you is that very much like we covered in my chart in my presentation station where I talked about how these markets performed relative to our expectation.

我想告訴您的是，這非常類似於我們在演示站的圖表中提到的那樣，我在其中討論了這些市場相對於我們的預期的表現。

We saw good growth in commercial and institutional.

我們看到商業和機構方面有良好的成長。

We are like high-single digit numbers and utility, high single, low double-digit numbers.

我們就像高個位數和效用，高個位數，低兩位數。

We saw good growth in industrial, more mid singles, but then it was offset by some declines in some legacy vehicle business.

我們看到工業和中型單車業務取得了良好的成長，但隨後被一些傳統汽車業務的下滑所抵消。

It was offset by declines in residential.

但住宅銷售額的下滑抵消了這一影響。

It was offset by declines in MOEM.

但被 MOEM 的下降所抵消。

So it really is once again, very much consistent with what I laid out on slide 4 for in the deck.

所以這確實再次與我在投影片第 4 頁所闡述的內容非常一致。

Our businesses performed largely in line with those market numbers.

我們的業務表現與這些市場數據基本一致。

But we do appreciate the question because sometimes it's difficult to make the math foot.

但我們確實很感謝你提出這個問題，因為有時候計算起來很困難。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

And based on the sort of capacity expansions you talked about and the other strengths in data center, when we're thinking about sort of the 2025 electrical revenue growth guidance, is that assuming a sort of similar-ish, very strong gross rate in data center this year as well?

根據您談到的容量擴展類型以及資料中心的其他優勢，當我們考慮 2025 年電力收入成長指引時，是否假設資料中心的毛利率今年也是非常強勁嗎？

True.

真的。

Yes.

是的。

The answer is yes.

答案是肯定的。

We may not be counting on the same rate of growth as we can vary per share, but still very, very strong growth.

我們可能無法指望同樣的成長率，因為每股可能會有所不同，但成長仍然非常強勁。

Got it.

知道了。

And then one last silly one.

最後再說一個愚蠢的事。

Aerospace, flat margins for three years guided to expand this year.

航空航太業，三年來利潤率持平，預計今年將擴大。

Any color on the drivers, please?

請問驅動程式有顏色嗎？

Sure.

當然。

Julian, I think the bigger here is operational performance.

朱利安，我認為這裡更重要的是營運績效。

We were not satisfied with the way we run our facilities. the whole industry and also went through difficulties in the last year so there's still inefficiencies for us to go deal with.

我們對於營運設施的方式並不滿意。整個產業在去年也經歷了困難，因此我們仍然需要解決效率低下的問題。

But if you look at what we did in vehicle over time in even more difficult environment, we managed to move margins up.

但如果你看看我們在更困難的環境下在車輛方面所做的努力，我們成功提高了利潤率。

So that's the mandate of the new management team to do the exactly the same with the vehicle, in aerospace with biggest advances in aerospace.

因此，新管理團隊的任務就是對太空船做同樣的事情，在航空航太領域取得最大的進步。

We count on much more predictable orders.

我們期望訂單更加可預測。

We have a very large backlog and we can drive our own company here.

我們有非常大的積壓訂單，我們可以在這裡推動我們自己的公司。

So I think most of the margin improvement moving forward will be a hallmark that we need to do, and that's the reason we appointed the leaders we appointed in [John's] staff in aerospace, but also for the bank who lead our vehicle business before to lead the industrial sector.

因此，我認為未來利潤率的大部分提高將是我們需要做的一個標誌，這就是我們任命約翰團隊中航空航天部門領導人的原因，也是之前領導我們汽車業務的銀行的原因。

That's their mandate.

這是他們的職責。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Chad Dillard, Bernstein.

查德·迪拉德、伯恩斯坦。

Hey, good afternoon, guys.

嘿，大家下午好。

Thanks for taking the question.

感謝您回答這個問題。

So as AI gave us and a shift from training to our consumer, I know we can debate the pace at which just happens, but how does the electrical content and attempting to hover between these two different use cases or maybe it doesn't interfere at all?

因此，隨著人工智慧為我們帶來從培訓到消費者的轉變，我知道我們可以爭論這種轉變的速度，但電氣內容如何試圖在這兩種不同的用例之間徘徊，或者也許它不會幹擾全部？

I guess I'm trying to understand like what's your products will do some more stuff on depedning on these use cases.

我想了解的是，您的產品會根據這些用例做更多的事情。

Maybe before you answer this question, how much of your data center sales are

在你回答這個問題之前，也許你的資料中心銷售額有多少是

--?

--？

Okay.

好的。

So let me clarify the question.

讓我澄清一下這個問題。

You asked us before, whether changes like this secular change, what we saw, was that the first part of your question?

您之前問過我們，我們所看到的這種長期變化是否是您問題的第一部分？

Yeah, is the shift from like training to inferencing, just trying to help understand the difference in electrical content and intensity products.

是的，從訓練到推理的轉變，只是為了幫助理解電內容和強度產品的差異。

Okay.

好的。

So for us, I would say -- I would comment on this as those breakthroughs like (inaudible) are to be expected.

因此對我們來說，我想說——我會對此發表評論，因為像（聽不清楚）這樣的突破是可以預料的。

That's the first thing I would say.

這是我要說的第一件事。

We believe when there is more adoption, as you're probably suggesting, we're going to have more inference data centers and training data centers.

我們相信，當採用率更高時，正如您可能建議的那樣，我們將擁有更多的推理資料中心和訓練資料中心。

But we're seeing that data center, we saw the exact same portfolio, exact same portfolio.

但是我們看到了那個資料中心，我們看到了完全相同的投資組合，完全相同的投資組合。

And what could be interesting and I'm not making industry forecast here because it's too early, but if you have higher adoption and the data centers are built faster, the inference data centers, most of the bottlenecks that actually create the biggest headache for data center operators will vastly go away instead of trying to accommodate gigawatt training centers.

有趣的是，我在這裡不做行業預測，因為現在還為時過早，但如果採用率更高，資料中心的建設速度更快，推理資料中心，大多數瓶頸實際上會為資料帶來最大的麻煩中心營運商將大量消失，而不是試圖容納千兆瓦的培訓中心。

If you can accommodate a much smaller energy-consuming inference centers, the builds could accelerate.

如果您可以容納更小、更耗能的推理中心，那麼建造速度就會加快。

And that could be a very good thing for us as well.

這對我們來說也可能是一件非常好的事情。

But best fleet will be the same transformers, will be the same switch gear, will be the same UPS inside the server hall and the software, et cetera.

但最好的機組將是相同的變壓器、相同的開關設備、伺服器機房內的相同UPS和軟體等等。

It's the same portfolio.

這是同一個投資組合。

No disruption there.

那裡沒有什麼混亂。

Having said that, where we are actually working really closely with our hyperscale and multi-tenant data centers is in our growing their builds and be able to develop this large backlog of seven years in a nice way, that's the focus.

話雖如此，我們實際上正在與超大規模和多租戶資料中心密切合作，不斷擴大他們的建設，並能夠以良好的方式開發這七年的大量積壓，這是重點。

But we got false with our key customers after Monday, the sentiments to the same, nothing changed.

但在周一之後，我們與主要客戶的關係變得不太好，情緒依然如舊，沒有任何改變。

We keep pushing forward.

我們繼續前進。

That's super helpful.

這非常有幫助。

And then just a quick one on -- I don't mean titles and talk a little bit of today, but where are the first public the core products like switch to our transformers?

然後我再簡單問一下——我不是指標題，而是今天要談論的一點，但是第一個公開的核心產品，例如我們的變壓器開關，在哪裡？

And once you have the capacity ads come online during the second half of this year, where would you expect that lead time to go?

一旦你們有能力在今年下半年上線廣告，你預計交付週期會是多久？

As we've commented before, we have two dozen projects.

正如我們之前所說，我們有二十幾個項目。

Some are expansion of our plants, some are new plants that we are building.

有些是我們工廠的擴建，有些是我們正在建造的新工廠。

And although there is no cliff event of a large one single facility, they'll move the needle, we see more of that capacity.

儘管不會出現單一大型設施的斷崖事件，但它們會推動事態發展，我們看到更多的這種容量。

The best answer I can give you.

這是我能給你的最佳答案。

And yes, today we look at lead times and we continue to work on them.

是的，今天我們研究了交貨時間，並繼續努力。

I think we are competitive, but they remain higher than historical levels and we want to drive them down.

我認為我們是有競爭力的，但是他們的水平仍然高於歷史水平，我們想把他們的水平降低下來。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Tim Thein, Citi.

花旗銀行的 Tim Thein。

Good afternoon, guys.

大家下午好。

I think I'll ask where you talked about machine builders in Europe and residential starting to bottom out, but obviously you move residential to negative for '25 from your initial assumptions like the growth.

我想問您談到歐洲的機械製造商和住宅開始觸底，但顯然您根據最初的假設（例如增長）將住宅增長率預測為 25 年為負值。

So does the markets get worse?

那麼市場會變得更糟嗎？

Again, in third Q4, they just not recovered yet?

再說了，在第三季度，他們還沒有恢復嗎？

And then I'll turn it.

然後我會轉動它。

It looks like China continues to hold out for you.

看起來中國還在繼續支持你。

I think you mentioned utilities.

我覺得你提到了公用事業。

Is there is anything else that you're seeing over there?

在那裡還看到其他什麼嗎？

Yes, I'd say that in terms of what happened at the end of the year, which has us incrementally less enthusiastic in resi, as you know, as the Fed cut interest rates, everyone expected that to translate to an improvement in the residential market in borrowing costs for consumers.

是的，我想說，就年底發生的事情而言，我們對房地產的熱情逐漸降低，正如你所知，隨著美聯儲降息，每個人都預計這將轉化為房地產市場的改善。的借貸成本。

And that, quite frankly, hasn't happened as we all know.

坦白說，我們都知道，這種事並沒有發生。

And so I'd say on the margin, resi got a bit weaker during the Q4.

因此，我想說，從邊際上看，房地產在第四季有所走弱。

And I'd say on the MOEM segment, more or less a bottoming out, we think and maybe there are some green shoots in the MOEM, but specifically in resi, we've become less bullish on the resi recovery, given the fact that interest rates have remained stubbornly high.

我想說，在 MOEM 領域，我們認為或多或少已經觸底，也許 MOEM 中出現了一些復甦的跡象，但具體到住宅領域，我們對住宅復甦的樂觀程度已經降低，因為利率一直居高不下。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then backlog up 29%, Electrical Americas at the end of this year, I think it was up 18% last year.

然後積壓訂單增加了 29%，到今年年底，美國電氣公司積壓的訂單比去年增加了 18%。

This time here, you're forecasting slightly slower organic growth in '25 versus '24.

這次，您預測25年的有機成長速度將比24年略慢。

I know you had some hurricane disruption in Q4 revenue.

我知道你們第四季的營收受到颶風影響。

Is there anything else that slowed revenue in the quarter and then as a modestly lower forecast, just a reflection of conservatism or maybe larger projects was longer duration?

還有其他因素導致本季收入放緩，然後預測略有下降，這只是保守主義的反映，或者可能是更大的項目持續時間更長？

Yes, I would say for the Q4, we had, as Craig mentioned, we had some weaknesses in resi in the low cycle business.

是的，我想說，對於第四季度，正如 Craig 提到的，我們在低週期業務的房地產方面存在一些弱點。

As we look forward, we continue to count on most of our markets are growing nicely.

展望未來，我們將繼續相信我們的大多數市場都將實現良好的成長。

We have a very strong backlog, I would reiterate that and with the capacity of our plants running better, the ones we have and the expansions, we are confident in the outlook we are putting out for the 11.5% in midpoint.

我們的積壓訂單非常充足，我想重申這一點，而且隨著我們工廠產能的不斷提高，無論是現有工廠還是擴建工廠，我們對中期 11.5% 的預期充滿信心。

And the other thing I'd point out point out there's reason was we mentioned it earlier, is that historically we would we were living in an inflationary environment, we were getting more price, and we simply anniversaried a number of those price increases from prior users.

我想指出的另一件事是，我們之前提到過，歷史上我們生活在通貨膨脹的環境中，價格越來越高，我們只是對之前的價格上漲進行了周年紀念。

And quite frankly, our volumes are actually, as we look forward, as Olivier mentioned in his opening commentary, contributing more to our growth and most of our growth going forward so a big difference is also the relative amount of price that we're experiencing in the business because we simply don't have as much inflation as we've had historically.

坦白說，正如奧利維爾在開場評論中提到的那樣，我們的銷量實際上會為我們的成長做出更多貢獻，而且未來我們的成長將主要來自銷量，因此，一個很大的區別也是我們所經歷的相對價格。

Appreciate the color, guys.

欣賞這個顏色，夥計們。

David Raso, Evercore ISI.

大衛·拉索（David Raso），Evercore ISI。

Hi, I'll be quick.

嗨，我很快就會來。

I know it's late, sorry.

我知道已經太晚了，抱歉。

The amount of capacity being added, can you quantify to any degree across electrical?

您能在電氣領域中量化增加的容量數量嗎？

I've actually heard what percent capacity do we think is coming on across electricals, second half of '25 and then what the full year impact should be in '26?

我實際上已經聽說了我們認為 25 年下半年電氣領域的產能百分比是多少，以及 26 年全年的影響應該是多少？

And then the dovetail off the comment sort of normalized now on pricing, this is more of a volume story.

然後，評論與定價的契合現在已經正常化，這更像是一個數量故事。

When I think of what you're describing the next couple years is on the electrical businesses, your willingness to add capacity and you're already hinting at the Upper A in your other businesses.

當我想到您所描述的未來幾年的電力業務時，您願意增加產能，並且您已經暗示了其他業務的上層 A。

Is there any reason to be thinking that you don't see this organic sales growth rate for, say, '25 as structurally something the company can do for multiple years?

有沒有理由認為，你認為比如說 25 年的有機銷售成長率在結構上是公司可以實現多年的？

Yes, we have this question last quarter as well.

是的，上個季度我們也有這個問題。

Dave, I appreciate the question around capacity additions and you're right, we've not expressed it in terms of a percentage of capacity increase on the base of our total capacity.

戴夫，我很感謝你關於產能增加的問題，你是對的，我們並沒有用總產能基礎上的產能增加百分比來表達這一點。

I think those numbers become meaningless when you look at in the context of our total manufacturing capacity and some 200 facilities or more facilities around the world.

我認為，如果從我們的總生產能力以及遍布全球的 200 多家工廠來看，這些數字就變得毫無意義了。

So what we said is that where we have capacity constraints, we have made investments that are multiyear investments that more than provide for the capacity to cover our growth forecast in those industries.

因此，我們所說的是，在產能受限的地方，我們會進行多年的投資，這些投資足以滿足我們對這些產業的成長預測。

And so where we're tight in markets like products like data centers and products like transformers, we've made sizable commitments to investments that allow us to cover where we are today and a multiyear view of the capacity that we're going to need.

因此，在資料中心和變壓器等產品等市場緊俏的情況下，我們做出了相當大的投資承諾，這使我們能夠涵蓋目前的狀況，並對未來幾年所需的產能有一個長遠的規劃。

And so the company, as we've committed to last time, we're in good shape.

正如我們上次承諾的那樣，公司狀況良好。

We will not be the bottleneck in the industry.

我們不會成為業界的瓶頸。

We're making these capacity investments.

我們正在進行這些產能投資。

We talked about $1.5 billion of incremental growth capacity that we're putting into the businesses, and that will cover our forecast and appropriate if markets tend to be a bit sharper than what we're forecasting.

我們談到了向業務投入 15 億美元的增量成長能力，這將涵蓋我們的預測，如果市場走勢比我們預測的更為強勁，這將是適當的。

And just to complement those, as Craig explained really well, and the look forward that you're trying to imply we're going to talk about that in March at our Investor Day.

為了補充這些，正如 Craig 很好地解釋的那樣，並期待您試圖暗示我們將在 3 月份的投資者日上討論這個問題。

We're going to give you the breakdown of the segments and how we see the world until 2030.

我們將為您細分各個部分，並讓您了解 2030 年之前我們對世界的看法。

Okay.

好的。

I appreciate it.

我很感激。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Phil Buller, Berenberg.

菲爾‧布勒 (Phil Buller)，貝倫貝格 (Berenberg)。

Thank you for squeezing me in.

謝謝你擠進我。

There's obviously been some parts of the business which have been soft.

顯然，有些業務部分已經變得疲軟。

It's not very soft for some time.

有一段時間它不太柔軟。

So from what you're seeing on the ground, has there been any green shoots this quarter or market share gains, perhaps that you can talk to in European electrical, European machine OEMs, resi, or autos?

那麼從您實際看到的情況來看，本季度是否有任何復甦跡像或市場份額有所增長？

I think Craig, you talked Andy's question on some of that, but perhaps more on the US side.

我認為克雷格，你談到了安迪關於其中部分問題的問題，但也許更多的是從美國方面來說。

Can you specifically talk to what you're seeing in Europe or non-US, please?

您能具體談談您在歐洲或美國以外看到的情況嗎？

And just as a follow-up, I appreciate this isn't a strategy told that it was discussed, the M&A was going to be focused on electrical and aero.

作為後續行動，我很欣賞這不是一個被討論的策略，併購將專注於電氣和航空領域。

So I guess I'm wondering on if the strategic importance of the automotive exposure is something that you're going to be looking to talk to at the Investor Day in March?Thanks.

所以我想知道您是否會在三月的投資者日上談論汽車業務的戰略重要性？

Okay.

好的。

So maybe just on the on the green shoots question and specifically as it relates to Europe, you're right, that market has been it's been soft for some time.

因此，也許只是關於綠芽問題，特別是與歐洲有關的問題，你是對的，那個市場已經疲軟了一段時間。

Most of the industrial data coming out of Europe and Germany specifically continues to be quite weak.

歐洲、尤其是德國公佈的大部分工業數據持續疲軟。

Although having said that, as you saw in our own number and you see in our outlook in terms of our forecast, we do expect that market to be incrementally better in 2025 than it was into recovery in the machinery OEM market.

儘管如此，正如您在我們自己的數據和預測展望中所看到的，我們確實預計 2025 年市場表現將比機械 OEM 市場復甦時更好。

We are seeing a little bit of recovery in some of the residential pieces of the European business, but still not the growth there.

我們看到歐洲業務的一些住宅部分有所復甦，但仍未實現成長。

But so I think at this point, we'll have to wait and see.

但我認為，目前我們還必須拭目以待。

We remain cautious, specifically in Europe, given the macroeconomic environment there where we are forecasting growth.

我們仍保持謹慎，特別是在歐洲，因為我們預測那裡的宏觀經濟環境將會成長。

It's largely because they too are benefiting from data centers.

這主要是因為他們也從資料中心受益。

They too are benefiting from what's happening in the utility markets and they're seeing some of the same macro megatrends driving growth in your business that we're seeing in the US market and some of those are accelerating.

他們也從公用事業市場的動態中受益，他們看到一些與我們在美國市場看到的相同的宏觀大趨勢正在推動你們業務的成長，而且其中一些趨勢正在加速。

Thank you.

謝謝。

About the vehicle, e-mobility in our Investor Day.

關於我們投資者日上的車輛、電動車。

That was the second part of your question.

這是你問題的第二部分。

We're going to talk about it in March.

我們將在三月討論這個問題。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Thanks very much, guys.

非常感謝大家。

Thanks, guys.

謝謝大家。

We do appreciate your questions.

我們非常感謝您的提問。

And as always, our team will be available to address your follow-up questions and thanks for joining us and have a good day.

像往常一樣，我們的團隊將隨時解答您的後續問題，感謝您的加入並祝您有美好的一天。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes the conference.

會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。