伊頓 (ETN) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Eaton fourth-quarter 2024 earnings results conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

您好，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加伊頓 2024 年第四季財報業績電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。（操作員指示）

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Yan Jin, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations.

現在，我想將會議交給今天的發言人，投資者關係高級副總裁嚴進。

Hey, good morning. Thank you all for joining us for Eaton's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call. With me today are Craig Arnold, our Chairman and CEO; Paulo Ruiz, President and Chief Operating Officer.

嘿，早安。感謝大家參加伊頓 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。今天與我一起的有我們的董事長兼執行長克雷格·阿諾德 (Craig Arnold) 和總裁兼營運長保羅·魯伊斯 (Paulo Ruiz)。

Our agenda today includes the opening remarks by Craig, who will turn it over to Olivier, who will highlight our company's performance in the fourth quarter. We will then turn it over to Paulo who will provide guidance for Q1 and our full-year 2025.

我們今天的議程包括克雷格的開場白，然後他將把發言權交給奧利維爾，奧利維爾將重點介紹我們公司在第四季度的業績。然後，我們將把責任轉交給 Paulo，他將為第一季和 2025 年全年提供指導。

As we have done in our past calls, we will take your questions at the end of our calls commentary. The press release and the presentation we will go through today have been posted on our website. This presentation, including adjusted earnings per share, adjusted free cash flow, and other non-GAAP measures. They are reconciled in the appendix. A webcast of this call is accessible on our website and will be available for replay.

正如我們在過去的電話會議中所做的那樣，我們將在電話會議評論結束時回答您的問題。我們今天將要發布的新聞稿和簡報已發佈在我們的網站上。本報告包括調整後的每股盈餘、調整後的自由現金流量和其他非公認會計準則指標。它們在附錄中進行了協調。本次電話會議的網路直播可在我們的網站上觀看，並可供重播。

I would like to remove that our commentary today will include statements related to the expected future results of the company and are, therefore, forward-looking statements. Our actual results may differ materially from our forecasted projections due to a wider range of risks and uncertainties that are described in our earnings release and presentation.

我想刪除的是，我們今天的評論將包括與公司預期未來業績相關的陳述，因此是前瞻性的陳述。由於我們的收益報告和簡報中描述了更廣泛的風險和不確定性，我們的實際結果可能與我們的預測有重大差異。

With that, I will turn it over to Craig.

說完這些，我將把麥克風交給 Craig。

Okay. Thanks, Yan, and we're pleased to close out the year with another strong quarterly result. I'm especially proud of how our team executed in the quarter. As you know, we needed to overcome the impact of strikes in the aerospace industry and the lingering impact of the hurricane, which impacted our Electrical Americas business.

好的。謝謝，Yan，我們很高興以另一個強勁的季度業績結束今年。我對我們團隊在本季的表現感到特別自豪。如您所知，我們需要克服航空航天業罷工的影響以及颶風的持續影響，這對我們的美洲電氣業務產生了影響。

For the quarter, we generated a Q4 record for adjusted EPS of $2.83, up 11% from prior year. We also delivered record segment margins of 24.7%, up 190 basis points from last year and above the high end of our guidance. And we continue to see strong market activity. On a rolling 12-month basis, electrical orders were up 12%, led by our Electrical Americas with orders up 16% and orders were up 10% in aerospace.

本季度，我們創造了調整後每股收益 2.83 美元的第四季度記錄，比上年增長 11%。我們的分部利潤率也達到了創紀錄的 24.7%，比去年同期成長了 190 個基點，並且高於我們預期的最高值。我們繼續看到強勁的市場活動。連續 12 個月，電氣訂單成長 12%，其中美洲電氣訂單成長 16%，航空航太訂單成長 10%。

This led to another quarter growing and record backlogs with once again outstanding result from Electrical Americas, up 29% and then aerospace up 16%, with book-to-bill ratios above 1 in both businesses. As you can see from the chart, we're set for another strong year in 2025. Paulo will walk you through our guidance, but we do expect another year of healthy end markets, strong organic growth, margin expansion, improving cash flow, and double-digit increases in adjusted EPS.

這導致本季又成長，並創下了訂單量的新高，其中電氣美洲業務再次取得了出色的業績，增長了 29%，航空航天業務增長了 16%，兩個業務的訂單出貨比均超過了 1。從圖表中可以看出，2025 年我們將迎來另一個強勁的一年。Paulo 將向您介紹我們的指導，但我們確實預計今年終端市場將保持健康，有機成長強勁，利潤率將擴大，現金流將改善，調整後每股收益將實現兩位數成長。

Turning to page 4, we're once again providing an overview of megatrends and how they're driving growth in our end markets. You're very familiar with this trend by now, but we didn't want to provide an overview of how these markets performed in 2024 versus our expectations. This is especially relevant in the context of our outlook for 2025 that Paulo will provide later today and at our Investor Meeting in March.

翻到第 4 頁，我們再次概述了大趨勢以及它們如何推動我們終端市場的成長。您現在已經非常熟悉這一趨勢，但我們不想概述這些市場在 2024 年的表現與我們的預期相比如何。這對於 Paulo 今天晚些時候以及 3 月份的投資者會議上提供的 2025 年展望尤其重要。

In electrical, our end markets performed better than expectations due to strength in data centers and in the Americas market. Strong growth in these two areas more than offset some unplanned weakness in residential and MOEM markets.

在電氣方面，由於資料中心和美洲市場的強勁表現，我們的終端市場表現優於預期。這兩個領域的強勁成長足以抵消住宅和 MOEM 市場的一些意外疲軟。

In aerospace, markets grew nicely in line with plan and this was despite the Boeing strike. In our vehicle markets, we're a bit of a mixed bag with better-than-planned performance in commercial vehicles, offsetting weakness in the light vehicle market, which includes e-mobility.

在航空航太領域，儘管波音公司發生罷工，但市場仍按照計畫順利成長。在我們的汽車市場中，我們的表現好壞參半，商用車的表現好於計劃，抵消了包括電動車在內的輕型車市場的疲軟。

Overall, we continue to see megatrends noted here as important drivers of secular growth in our markets and why you should expect Eaton to pose attractive growth for years to come. And this secular growth is perhaps most evidenced by the megatrend chart that you see on slide 5 in the presentation.

總體而言，我們繼續將這裡提到的大趨勢視為我們市場長期成長的重要驅動力，也是為什麼您應該期待伊頓在未來幾年實現有吸引力的成長。這種長期成長可能最能體現在簡報第 5 張投影片上的大趨勢圖表中。

As a reminder, a megaproject is a project with announced value of $1 billion or more and our reference point begins in January of 2021. As you know, we've reported this data for a few quarters now and our conclusion hasn't changed. Each quarter we're seeing an increase in a number of projects, hard dollar values, and a growing backlog.

提醒一下，大型項目是指宣布價值 10 億美元或以上的項目，我們的參考點從 2021 年 1 月開始。如您所知，我們已經報告了幾個季度的數據，我們的結論沒有改變。每個季度我們都會看到項目數量、美元價值和積壓訂單不斷增加。

Q4 was another record with 65 projects announced at a value of more than $150 billion. Through Q4, we're now at [569] projects with a cumulative value of $1.7 trillion and the backlog now stands at $1.9 trillion of 33% from last year. Through Q4, approximately 15% of these products have started and we expect a record number of starts in 2025.

第四季再創紀錄，共宣布 65 個項目，總價值超過 1500 億美元。截至第四季度，我們目前有 [569] 個項目，累計價值 1.7 兆美元，積壓項目目前為 1.9 兆美元，比去年同期成長 33%。截至第四季度，約有 15% 的此類產品已開始生產，我們預計 2025 年的開始生產數量將創歷史新高。

Many of you have asked the question about cancellation rates, which we continue to monitor as well. To date, cancellations have actually been modest, around 11% and well below historical levels.

你們中許多人詢問了有關取消率的問題，我們也將繼續監控這個問題。到目前為止，取消率實際上並不高，約 11%，遠低於歷史水準。

A couple of things of Eaton's specific data. For projects that have started, we've won over $1.8 billion of orders were the win rate of almost 40% and we're in active negotiations on another $3.1 billion of electrical content. So as you can see from the math, most of these projects having reached in negotiation stage, and we expect those orders due to growth.

有關伊頓的一些具體數據。對於已啟動的項目，我們贏得了超過 18 億美元的訂單，中標率接近 40%，我們正在就另外 31 億美元的電力項目進行積極談判。因此，從數學上可以看出，大多數項目已經進入談判階段，我們預計這些訂單將會成長。

Given the heightened discussions on data centers this week, I wanted to take a moment to highlight our data center business and why we have so much confidence in our outlook for continued growth. The information on slide 6 summarizes our sales, negotiations, orders, and backlog for our data center business. It includes hyperscale, [colos], on-prem data centers, and the major categories of cloud training and inference, and loud is still by a wide margin, the largest category.

鑑於本周有關資料中心的討論日益激烈，我想花點時間重點介紹一下我們的資料中心業務，以及我們為何對持續成長的前景如此有信心。投影片 6 上的資訊總結了我們的資料中心業務的銷售、談判、訂單和積壓情況。它包括超大規模、[colos]、內部部署資料中心以及雲端訓練和推理的主要類別，而 loud 仍然是最大的類別。

As you can see from the data, the rate of growth is well ahead of sales. I'll not read in each of the numbers as they speak for themselves, but we'll ask that you note a few points. Our backlog is rapidly increasing, up 50% over prior year, which was up 70% over 2022. And as you've all seen, customers continue to increase the forecasts with capital investments.

從數據中可以看出，成長率遠遠超過銷售額。我不會逐一讀出每個數字，因為它們本身就說明了一切，但我們會請您注意幾點。我們的積壓訂單正在迅速增加，比前一年增加了 50%，比 2022 年增加了 70%。如大家所見，客戶不斷透過資本投資增加預測。

Hyperscale customers alone expect to spend almost $300 billion in CapEx in 2025, up 30% from 2024. To the seven years. At 2024 build rates, it would take seven years to consume the current backlog and the data center construct-to-build rate doubled between '23 and '24. So any notion that this market will slow down; it's simply not consistent with maybe the data that we're seeing. The industry will no doubt continue to see innovation and technology developments that reduce costs, and if judged by history, accelerator of growth.

光是超大規模客戶就預計到 2025 年資本支出將接近 3,000 億美元，比 2024 年成長 30%。至七年。以 2024 年的建設速度，需要七年時間才能消耗掉目前的積壓訂單，而資料中心的建設速度在 2023 年至 2024 年間翻了一番。因此，任何認為該市場將會放緩的想法都可能與我們看到的數據不一致。毫無疑問，該行業將繼續見證創新和技術發展，從而降低成本，並且從歷史來看，這也將加速成長。

For 2025 and for years to come, we expect data centers to be our strongest market and stand by our previous forecast, which assumed strong double-digit growth.

我們預計，到 2025 年及未來幾年，資料中心將成為我們最強勁的市場，並堅持我們先前的預測，即實現強勁的兩位數成長。

Now, I'll turn it over to Olivier to take us through financial results for the quarter.

現在，我將把時間交給 Olivier，讓他向我們介紹本季的財務表現。

Thanks, Craig. I will start by providing a summary of our Q4 results, which again, includes many new recalls. We posted fourth-quarter record sales of $6.2 billion of FX headwind. Hurricane Helene and labor strikes in the aerospace industry negatively impacted Q4 sales by approximately $18 million or 130 basis points.

謝謝，克雷格。我將首先概述我們的第四季度業績，其中再次包含許多新的召回。我們第四季的外匯逆風銷售額創下了 62 億美元的紀錄。颶風海倫和航空航太業的罷工對第四季度的銷售額產生了約 1800 萬美元或 130 個基點的負面影響。

Operating profit grew 13% and segment margin expanded 190 basis points to an all-time record 24.7%. Adjusted EPS up $2.83, increased by 9% over the prior year. This is a Q4 quarterly record on a year-over-year basis and free cash flow of $1.3 billion, up 8% versus prior year.

營業利益成長 13%，分部利潤率擴大 190 個基點，達到歷史最高水準的 24.7%。調整後每股收益上漲 2.83 美元，較上年增長 9%。這是第四季的年比最高紀錄，自由現金流為 13 億美元，比上年增長 8%。

We detail our America (inaudible). The business continues to execute very well and delivered another record for operating profit and margins and posted a Q4 quarterly record sales. Organic sales growth of 9% was driven primarily by strength in data center, along with solid growth in commercial and institutional markets. Without the impacts of the hurricane disruptions to the business, organic growth would have been in the double digits.

我們詳細描述了我們的美國（聽不清楚）。業務表現持續良好，營業利潤和利潤率再創紀錄，第四季銷售額也創下紀錄。有機銷售額成長 9% 主要得益於資料中心的強勁成長以及商業和機構市場的穩健成長。如果沒有颶風對業務造成的影響，有機成長率將達到兩位數。

Operating margin of 31.6% was up 310 basis points versus prior year, benefiting from higher sales, remain at the at a high level of 16%, demonstrating continued tailwinds from the various megatrends. We had particular strength in the data center market where activity remains very robust. For example, Dodge data shows US announced data center project starts at up 99% in 2024 and $173% year over year in Q4.

營業利潤率為 31.6%，較上年上升 310 個基點，受益於銷售額增長，仍保持在 16% 的高水平，顯示各種大趨勢的持續推動。我們在資料中心市場尤其具有實力，該市場的活動仍然非常活躍。例如，道奇數據顯示，美國宣布的資料中心專案開工率在 2024 年將成長 99%，第四季的投資額將年增 173%。

With data center construction backlog, it's now estimated to extend out about seven years based on 2024 build rates. Electrical Americas backlog increased 29% year over year with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.2 on a rolling 12-month basis. These results close out a record year for the business, which posted full-year revenue of $11.4 billion, organic growth of 13%, and margins of 30.2%, up 370 basis points over prior year.

由於資料中心建設積壓，根據 2024 年的建造速度，目前估計將延長約七年。電氣美洲公司積壓訂單年增 29%，12 個月滾動訂單出貨比為 1.2。這些業績為該公司創下了歷史新高的一年，全年營收達 114 億美元，有機成長率為 13%，利潤率為 30.2%，比上年增長 370 個基點。

With the tailwinds from secular trends, incremental capacity coming online, strong execution, and robust backlogs, Electrical Americas remains well positioned as we enter 2025. The next chart summarizes the results. Total revenue growth of 4% included organic growth of 5.5% and FX tailwind of 1.5%. We had strength regionally. We saw continued strength in APAC with double-digit organic growth and high-single-digit organic growth in EMEA.

憑藉長期趨勢的順風、不斷增加的產能、強大的執行力以及強勁的積壓訂單，Electrical Americas 在進入 2025 年時仍將保持有利地位。下圖總結了結果。總營收成長 4%，其中有機成長 5.5%，外匯順風成長 1.5%。我們在地區上具有實力。我們看到亞太地區持續保持強勁成長，實現兩位數有機成長，歐洲、中東和非洲地區則實現高個位數有機成長。

Operating margin of 17.7% was down 110 basis points versus prior year, primarily driven by mix. Orders were up for similar to sales growth, the strengthened was driven by the data center and utility markets. Backlog increased 16% over prior year, and book-to-bill continues to remain strong. Q4 was 1.1 on a rolling 12-month basis.

營業利益率為 17.7%，較前一年下降 110 個基點，主要受產品組合影響。訂單量與銷售額的成長類似，成長主要由資料中心和公用事業市場推動。積壓訂單較前一年增加 16%，訂單出貨比持續強勁。以連續 12 個月計算，第四季為 1.1。

For the full year, electrical global posted 4% organic growth with 18.4% margins. For Q4, we posted organic growth of 8% and segment margin of 26.7%, which was up 170 basis points over prior year. For the full year, we posted organic growth of 10% and segment margins of 26%, up 220 basis points over 2023.

全年來看，全球電氣實現 4% 的有機成長，利潤率為 18.4%。第四季度，我們的有機成長率為 8%，分部利潤率為 26.7%，比去年同期成長了 170 個基點。全年我們實現了 10% 的有機成長，分部利潤率為 26%，比 2023 年增長 220 個基點。

On a rolling 12-month basis, orders were up 12%, and our book-to-bill ratio for our electrical sector remains very strong at 1.1. We remain confident in our positioning for continued growth with strong margins in our overall electric global business.

過去12個月，訂單量成長了12%，我們電氣業務的訂單出貨比保持強勁，達到1.1。我們堅信，憑藉強勁的利潤率，我們全球電氣業務將持續成長。

Organic and total growth was 9% for the quarter, driven with growth in all end markets with (technical difficulty) commercial aftermarket. Without the impacts of the aerospace industry strikes, organic growth will have been indeed double digits. Operating margin was strong at 22.9%, up 50 basis points year over year, mostly from higher sales.

本季有機成長率和總成長率為 9%，這得益於所有終端市場（包括（技術難度）商業售後市場）的成長。如果沒有航空航太業罷工的影響，有機成長確實會達到兩位數。營業利潤率強勁達到 22.9%，較去年同期成長 50 個基點，主要得益於銷售額的成長。

Orders increased 10%, up from 6% in the prior quarter, with particular strength in military OEM, [nearshore] OEM, and commercial aftermarket. Year-over-year backlog increased 16% and was up 2% sequentially. On a rolling 12-month basis, our book-to-bill for our aerospace segment remains strong at 1.1. On the full-year basis, aerospace posted 10% organic growth with 23% margins.

訂單成長了 10%，高於上一季的 6%，其中軍事 OEM、[近岸] OEM 和商業售後市場表現尤為強勁。積壓訂單年增 16%，季增 2%。過去12個月，我們航空航太業務的訂單出貨比保持強勁，達到1.1。全年來看，航空航太業務實現了10%的有機成長，利潤率達到23%。

Moving to our vehicle segment on page 11. In the quarter, total revenue was down 10%, including a 7% organic decline, primarily driven by weaknesses in the North America, EMEA, and APAC, light vehicle markets, and 3 points of unfavorable FX. Despite the top line weaknesses, the team executed well from a margin perspective.

轉到第 11 頁的車輛部分。本季度，總收入下降 10%，其中有機下降 7%，主要原因是北美、歐洲、中東和非洲地區、亞太地區、輕型汽車市場的疲軟以及 3 個不利的外匯因素。儘管營收表現疲軟，但從利潤率角度來看，該團隊表現良好。

Operating margin came in at 18.8%. On a full-year basis, vehicle recorded organic revenue down 5% with 18% margins. On page 12, we show results of our e-mobility business. Total revenue was down 11%, including a 10% organic decline, primarily driven by our customers' program launch and production ramp-up delays, and 1% unfavorable FX.

營業利益率為18.8%。全年來看，汽車業務有機收入下降 5%，利潤率為 18%。第 12 頁展示了我們的電子行動業務的成果。總收入下降 11%，其中有機下降 10%，主要原因是客戶的計劃啟動和生產加速延遲，以及 1% 的不利外匯影響。

Operating profit was $3 million, resulting in operating margin of 1.8% for the quarter. Percent organic growth was negative 1% margins. Moving to page 13, we show our electrical and aerospace backlog updated through Q4. Backlog continues to be very strong, with electric at $11.8 billion and aerospace at $3.7 billion for a total backlog of $15.5 billion.

本季營業利潤為 300 萬美元，營業利潤率為 1.8%。有機成長百分比為負 1% 的利潤率。翻到第 13 頁，我們展示了截至第四季更新的電氣和航空航太積壓訂單。積壓訂單持續保持強勁勢頭，其中電氣積壓訂單金額為 118 億美元，航空航太積壓訂單金額為 37 億美元，總積壓訂單金額為 155 億美元。

Versus prior year, our backlogs have grown by 27% in electrical and 16% in aerospace. They are also increasing sequentially. As noted earlier, book-to-bill ratios for electric and aerospace are 1.1 and 1.1, respectively. The continued growth in our backlog underscores our high level of confidence in future demand.

與去年相比，我們在電氣領域的積壓訂單增加了 27%，在航空航太領域的積壓訂單增加了 16%。它們的數量也在逐年增加。如前所述，電氣和航空航太的訂單出貨比分別為 1.1 和 1.1。我們的積壓訂單持續成長凸顯了我們對未來需求的高度信心。

In addition to our strong backlog growth in 2024, the next page shows the continued strength in our negotiations pipeline, which supports our expectation for strong markets and structurally higher organic growth rates.

除了 2024 年強勁的積壓訂單成長之外，下一頁還展示了我們談判管道的持續強勁，這支持了我們對強勁市場和結構性更高有機成長率的預期。

In Electrical Americas, the pipeline has increased nearly 4 times since 2019. In fact, the pipeline grew 40% year over year, showing acceleration versus our multiyear CAGR of 29%. The year-over-year increase was largely driven by data center, commercial and institutional, and utility end markets.

在 Electrical Americas，管道自 2019 年以來增加了近 4 倍。事實上，該管道年增了 40%，與我們多年 29% 的複合年增長率相比有所加速。年比成長主要得益於資料中心、商業和機構以及公用事業終端市場。

Within the commercial and institutional end markets, growth was driven by education, government, and transportation. This is even stronger than the 13% organic growth in our Electrical Americas business, which suggests continued strength going forward.

在商業和機構終端市場中，成長主要由教育、政府和交通運輸所推動。這甚至比我們美洲電氣業務 13% 的有機成長還要強勁，這表明未來將繼續保持強勁成長。

Now, I will pass it over to Craig to summarize our 2024 performance.

現在，我將交給 Craig 來總結我們 2024 年的表現。

Thanks, Olivier. If we execute well and markets performed as expected, it should put us in a position to exceed our guidance. This occurred again in 2024. Throughout the year, we demonstrated the ability to all key metrics. We delivered 8% organic growth and 18% increase in adjusted EPS, all-time record margins of 24%, and all above our initial guidance.

謝謝，奧利維爾。如果我們執行良好且市場表現符合預期，那麼我們就能夠超越我們的預期。2024年，這種情況再次發生。全年，我們展示了所有關鍵指標的能力。我們實現了 8% 的有機成長和 18% 的調整後每股盈餘成長，利潤率創歷史新高，達到 24%，均高於我們最初的預期。

Of particular note, segment margins were up 140 basis points versus the original guidance midpoint. And as you know, every business deals with a number of market uncertainties and life has a way of delivering unexpected surprises. So we run the company of a way that of our team's execution in the year.

特別值得注意的是，該部門利潤率較最初的指導中點上升了 140 個基點。眾所周知，每個企業都會面臨許多市場不確定性，生活中總會出現意想不到的驚喜。因此，我們以團隊全年執行力的方式來經營公司。

We delivered another record year financial results while reinvesting in the business like never before. But while we are proud of our progress, we're not satisfied because we can do so much better. We're in the right markets and the identified megatrends are creating some of the biggest opportunities that we'll see in our lifetime. The growth opportunities are everywhere.

我們再次創下了年度財務表現的新紀錄，同時對業務進行了前所未有的再投資。但是，儘管我們為自己的進步感到自豪，但我們並不滿足，因為我們可以做得更好。我們處於正確的市場，並且已確定的大趨勢正在創造我們一生中將看到的一些最大的機會。成長機會無處不在。

Our negotiations pipeline, record order backlogs are evidence of our ability to convert on the opportunities, and we now have the capacity in place or coming soon to support even faster growth. And we have Eaton Business System. We call it EBS. That keeps everyone focused on getting better; running better functions, better factories, and better businesses. It's how we improve our efficiency and I couldn't be more pleased with the team leading the next stage of Eaton's transformation.

我們的談判管道、創紀錄的訂單積壓證明了我們有能力抓住機遇，而且我們現在已經具備或即將擁有這種能力來支持更快的成長。我們還有伊頓商業系統。我們稱之為 EBS。這使得每個人都專注於做得更好；運行更好的功能、更好的工廠和更好的業務。這是我們提高效率的方式，我對領導伊頓下一階段轉型的團隊感到非常滿意。

And on that note, I'll pass it over to Paulo who'll walk us through our -- (technical difficulty)

關於這一點，我將把它交給 Paulo，他將帶我們了解我們的--（技術難度）

2025, on page 17, we provide our view of end market growth expectations for the next year. As you can see, we continue to anticipate attractive growth markets in nearly all of our end markets. We're expecting double-digit growth in data center and distributed IT, commercial aerospace, and electric vehicles.

2025，在第 17 頁，我們提供了對明年終端市場成長預期的看法。如您所見，我們繼續預期幾乎所有終端市場都將出現有吸引力的成長市場。我們預計資料中心和分散式 IT、商業航空航天和電動車將實現兩位數成長。

For data centers, we remain constructive in our future outlook given the strength and breadth of our secular trends. We continue to see strong demand in data center markets with the adoption of cloud computing and acceleration of AI technologies, including inference and training. So as more AI technology emerge, acceleration in AI usage would drive higher consumption of our AI hardware, including our electrical equipment.

對於資料中心，鑑於長期趨勢的強度和廣度，我們對未來前景仍然持建設性態度。隨著雲端運算的採用和推理和訓練等人工智慧技術的加速發展，我們繼續看到資料中心市場的強勁需求。因此，隨著更多人工智慧技術的出現，人工智慧使用的加速將推動我們的人工智慧硬體（包括電氣設備）的更高消耗。

We also expect solid growth in utility and modest growth across many of our other end markets. So we anticipate weaknesses in commercial vehicle and resi markets, but that's changing resi outlook from last quarter is offset with trend in other end markets and we do not see a change in our overall market growth between 6% and 8%.

我們也預計公用事業將穩健成長，其他許多終端市場也將適度成長。因此，我們預計商用車和住宅市場將出現疲軟，但上一季住宅前景的變化被其他終端市場的趨勢所抵消，我們認為整體市場成長率不會在 6% 至 8% 之間發生變化。

Overall, 2025 should be another year of significant growth with more -- and supported also by strong order book, a strong record backlog, and favorable secular trends. So we remain well positioned to deliver differentiated growth in 2025.

總體而言，2025 年應是另一個顯著增長的一年，並且還將受到強勁訂單、強勁的記錄積壓和有利的長期趨勢的支持。因此，我們仍處於有利地位，可以在 2025 年實現差異化成長。

Now moving to page 18, we summarized our 2025 revenue and margin guidance. Organic growth for 2025 is expected to be between 7% and 9%, with particular strength in Electrical Americas at 11.5% at the midpoint. And I'll also add that healthy end markets combined once again with our large backlog, continues to provide premium visibility to support our 2025 outlook.

現在翻到第 18 頁，我們總結了 2025 年的營收和利潤率指引。預計 2025 年有機成長率將在 7% 至 9% 之間，其中電氣美洲業務的成長率將特別強勁，中間值為 11.5%。我還要補充一點，健康的終端市場與我們大量的積壓訂單相結合，繼續提供優質的可見性，以支持我們 2025 年的展望。

For segment margins, our guidance range is between 24.4% and 24.8%. It's an improvement of 60 basis points at the midpoint from our 2024 all-time record margins of 24%.

對於分部利潤率，我們的指導範圍在 24.4% 至 24.8% 之間。與 2024 年歷史最高利潤率 24% 相比，中點利潤率提高了 60 個基點。

Now on the next page, we have the balance of our guidance for 2025 and Q1. So for 2025, our EPS is expected to be between $11.80 and $12.20, a $12 at the midpoint and $23.7 billion to $4.1 billion, up 11% at the midpoint.

現在，在下一頁，我們將介紹 2025 年和第一季的指導平衡。因此，到 2025 年，我們預計每股收益將在 11.80 美元至 12.20 美元之間，中間值為 12 美元，預計每股收益將在 237 億美元至 41 億美元之間，中間值增長 11%。

We also expect this year, we will leave plenty of room for strategic M&A. We have also provided guidance on this page for Q1, as you can see. Turning to slide 20, we wanted to take a minute to highlight our upcoming Annual Investor Conference on March 11, 2025. We'll be back in New York City and we'll stream the presentation at eaton.com.

我們也預計今年我們將為策略併購留下充足的空間。如您所見，我們還在此頁面提供了第一季度的指導。翻到第 20 張投影片，我們想花一點時間來重點介紹即將於 2025 年 3 月 11 日舉行的年度投資者大會。我們將返回紐約市並在 eaton.com 上直播此演示。

Along with myself, you also have presentations from others, so we are really excited to talk about the future of the company, including outlining our 2030 targets.

除了我之外，還有其他人也做了演講，因此我們非常高興談論公司的未來，包括概述我們的 2030 年目標。

With that, I'll hand it back to Yan and the operator for Q&A.

說完，我將把話題交還給 Yan 和接線員進行問答。

Thanks, Paulo. For the Q&A today, please limit your opportunity to one question and a follow-up. Thanks in advance for your cooperation.

謝謝，保羅。對於今天的問答，請將您的機會限制為一個問題和一個後續問題。在此先感謝您的合作。

With that, I'll turn it over to the operator to give you guys an instruction.

說完這些，我將把它交給操作員，以便向你們發出指示。

(Operator Instructions) Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）摩根士丹利的克里斯·斯奈德。

Thank you. Maybe starting off, one for Olivier. So the guide on cost for, I guess, the midpoint about 6.5% organic in Q1 and then 8.5% the rest of the year. Can you talk about the drivers of that pickup in growth? And then what should we expect for the cadence of adjusted EPS throughout the remainder of '25? Thank you.

謝謝。也許從奧利維爾開始吧。因此，我估計成本指南的中間值為第一季有機成本的 6.5% 左右，今年剩餘時間的有機成本為 8.5%。您能談談經濟成長回升的驅動因素嗎？那麼，我們對 25 年剩餘時間內調整後每股盈餘的節奏應該有何期待呢？謝謝。

Thank you for your question. Let me cover first the EPS guidance to the year, and Paulo and I will tag team on the revenue section. If you look at the EPS, we are planning today to up the first half to directionally represent 48% of the full EPS guide for the year and the second half as a result of 52%.

感謝您的提問。首先讓我介紹今年的每股盈餘預測，然後 Paulo 和我將在營收部分分組討論。如果你看一下每股盈餘，我們今天計劃將上半年的每股盈餘提高到全年每股盈餘指南的 48%，下半年的每股盈餘提高到 52%。

If you look at the recent past, we used to have a mix between first, up in 54%. So we're well balanced, first half, second half. Wanted also to talk about the Q1 EPS guide. Again, similarly to the first half, second half, the Q1 sequential decline is actually better than what we have experienced in our recent past percent.

如果你回顧最近發生的事情，我們曾經將第一種和第二種結合起來，上升了 54%。因此，我們的上半場和下半場表現均衡。還想談談第一季每股收益指南。同樣，與上半年和下半年的情況類似，第一季的連續下滑實際上比我們最近經歷的百分比要好。

This guide implies a decline of 4%. The decline is always expected because of merit increase. And also, we are very bullish about our business and when to invest in demand generation and manufacturing. So that explains also the Q1 sequential decline in EPS.

該指引意味著下降4%。由於績效增加，因此下降總是在意料之中的。此外，我們對我們的業務以及何時投資需求產生和製造非常樂觀。這也解釋了第一季每股收益的連續下降。

And maybe you have a new -- Paulo?

也許您有一個新的—保羅？

Yes, thanks for your question, Chris. So to think about the revenue split for modeling purposes, I think it's fair to assume the first have been at [7%] and the second half of 9%. And I can give you more color on the segments.

是的，謝謝你的提問，克里斯。因此，為了考慮建模目的的收入分割，我認為可以公平地假設前者為 [7%]，後者為 9%。我可以為你提供更多關於各個部分的詳細資訊。

Electrical Americas will accelerate a bit in the second half because of the extra additional capacity we are adding. I want to say that we track those projects one by one. So far, so good. They are coming as we planned. So that's the Electrical Americas, the biggest segment.

由於我們正在增加額外的產能，電氣美洲公司在下半年將會略有加速。我想說的是，我們正在逐一追蹤這些項目。到目前為止，一切都很好。他們正按照我們的計劃到來。這就是美洲電氣市場最大的部分。

We also see that in the second half, most probably the electrical global business will pick up again with some recovery in the (inaudible) markets. Aerospace is flattish over the year, well distributed. And then the vehicle markets, which tend to be high in the second half given the very easy comps of the end of the year. So that's the way to think about it.

我們也看到，下半年，隨著（聽不清楚）市場的復甦，全球電氣業務很可能會再次回升。航空航太業全年表現平穩，分佈均勻。然後是汽車市場，由於年底的銷量非常低，因此下半年汽車市場往往會表現高漲。這就是思考這個問題的方式。

I appreciate that. Really, really helpful. And then if I could follow up with one -- maybe for Craig. I really appreciate all the updates on the demand outlook. Certainly a lot of good trends out there, but I wanted to ask about the supply side. We've heard a lot about the product availability in the industry being incredibly tight the last few years now, I guess, in a switch gears, obviously, a lot of trends have emerged.

我很感激。真的，真的很有幫助。然後，如果我可以跟進一個問題——也許是針對克雷格。我非常感謝有關需求前景的所有更新。當然，有很多好的趨勢，但我想問一下供應方面的情況。我們聽到很多關於過去幾年該行業產品供應極其緊張的消息，我想，在轉換過程中，顯然出現了許多趨勢。

Are these lead times starting to come down? And when you look at the industry-wide capacity [ads], do you think that's enough to meet demand? Or do you think that this industry could still be short product beyond just the near term? Thank you.

這些交貨時間是否開始縮短了？當您查看整個行業的產能（廣告）時，您認為這足以滿足需求嗎？或者您認為這個行業在短期內仍然可能存在產品短缺的情況？謝謝。

No, appreciate question. It's actually a question that we've not gotten in a while. And quite frankly, it's not coming up on conversations we've had internally in a while, and that's a good thing. I mean, we were spending weekly calls and daily calls with our suppliers on dealing with supply constraints. And so I'd say lots of new capacity in place as well as suppliers.

不，我很感謝你的提問。這其實是我們很久沒有遇到的問題。坦白說，這個問題在我們內部已經有一段時間沒有討論過了，這是件好事。我的意思是，我們每週都會和供應商通電話，討論如何解決供應限制問題。因此我想說，有很多新產能和供應商已經到位。

And so I think from that piece of it, I think we have fairly good visibility and transparency in terms of the outlook for these markets and our suppliers have responded. Now as we think about our longer-term or midterm outlook, we're certainly constraining our view of the world largely because we do think labor continues to be somewhat constrained.

因此，我認為從這方面來看，我們對這些市場的前景有相當好的了解和透明度，而且我們的供應商也做出了回應。現在，當我們思考我們的長期或中期前景時，我們肯定會限制我們對世界的看法，這主要是因為我們確實認為勞動力繼續受到一定程度的限制。

If you think about our industry's skilled trades, you've seen an industry mix shift and those industries have been growing labor at a faster rate than the overall economy. So we still think that is potentially the bottleneck for the industry and it's why we've quite frankly constrained our own view of the rate of growth that we think this market's going to see. It could be better if some of these labor constraints don't materialize.

如果你考慮一下我們產業的技術工種，你會發現產業結構發生了變化，而且這些產業的勞動力成長速度比整體經濟更快。因此，我們仍然認為這可能是行業的瓶頸，這也是我們坦率地限制對這個市場成長率的看法的原因。如果這些勞動力限制不成為現實，情況可能會更好。

Thank you, Craig. Appreciate that.

謝謝你，克雷格。非常感謝。

Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

美國銀行的安德魯‧奧賓。

Just maybe a question for Craig. You're talking about Electrical Americas and the megaproject impact. So can you quantify or can you just talk about how much did megaprojects actually have an impact on your business in '24?

也許這只是對 Craig 的一個問題。您談論的是 Electrical Americas 及其大型專案的影響。那麼，您能否量化或僅僅談論大型專案對您 24 年的業務實際上產生了多大的影響？

Appreciate the question, Andrew. One of the reasons why we started reporting megaprojects a couple of years ago is that we saw this fundamental shift in our industry as the world was going through this massive CapEx rebuild cycle and the size of the projects have been much larger than what we've seen historically. And so we thought it was great to take this data and share it externally as a way of giving you an indication of what we're seeing in our business.

感謝你的提問，安德魯。我們幾年前開始報導大型專案的原因之一是，我們看到我們的產業發生了根本性的轉變，因為世界正在經歷大規模的資本支出重建週期，而且專案的規模比我們歷史上見過的要大得多。因此，我們認為獲取這些數據並對外分享是很好的，可以讓您了解我們在業務中看到的情況。

And the numbers are growing dramatically as what was reflected in the PowerPoint presentation. But to your point specifically around 2024, our business doubled megaprojects in 2024 to over $600 million. Our negotiation pipeline, up some 60%, if you recall, for the overall business, it's up 41%. So we continue to see an increasing number of projects.

正如 PowerPoint 簡報中所反映的那樣，這個數字正在急劇增長。但正如您所說，具體到 2024 年左右，我們的業務將使大型專案數量翻一番，達到 6 億美元以上。如果你還記得的話，我們的談判管道增加了約 60%，而整體業務則增加了 41%。因此，我們持續看到項目數量不斷增加。

The good news, as we've said many times, is that most of the benefit associated with these megaprojects is still out in front of us. And as you saw in the data, the number of projects and the size of the products continue to grow. And we're really going through a fairly significant CapEx expansion cycle in the US for sure, but around the world, and it's really showing up in these megaprojects.

正如我們多次說過的，好消息是，這些大型專案的大部分好處仍然擺在我們面前。正如您在數據中看到的那樣，專案數量和產品規模持續成長。我們確實在美國經歷了相當重要的資本支出擴張週期，但在世界各地，它確實在這些大型專案中得到體現。

If I look forward 2025, just to reinforce what Craig just said, we look at the Dodge data. And in 2024, there were 56 projects that started and around $135 billion in total. And their forecast for this year for 2025 is actually that we're going to reach over $300 billion in 114 projects.

如果我展望 2025 年，只是為了強化 Craig 剛才所說的話，我們來看看道奇的數據。到2024年，將有56個項目啟動，總投資額約1350億美元。他們對 2025 年的預測實際上是，我們將在 114 個項目中達到 3000 多億美元的投資。

So even if we tend to haircut the starts, we don't believe it all starts is almost double the rate we saw in 2024. So I think the message from Craig, I think the key point is the longevity of the growth cycle ahead of us. I think that's a good way to think about it.

因此，即使我們傾向於削減開工率，我們也不認為所有開工率都會達到 2024 年的兩倍。所以我認為克雷格傳達的訊息的關鍵點在於我們未來成長週期的長短。我認為這是一種很好的思考方式。

Thanks so much. And just a question on sort of supply chain, the state of supply chain, and I appreciate that you guys are watching. But we recently heard a comment that effectively, US market is stacking up capacity, supply chain capacity on the electrical side from all over the world. And the constraint is that while the industry leaders are certainly adding capacity, you still need to incentivize the supply chain maybe with better pricing and better margin for them to add capacity.

非常感謝。這只是關於供應鏈、供應鏈狀況的一個問題，我很感謝你們的關注。但我們最近聽到一種評論說，美國市場實際上正在從世界各地累積電力方面的產能和供應鏈產能。而限制因素在於，儘管行業領導者肯定會增加產能，但你仍然需要透過更好的定價和更好的利潤來激勵供應鏈，以增加產能。

Could you just maybe unpack to us what it is you're saying, how are you incentivizing your supply chain to add capacity, in particular at the components at a bottleneck to more critical components? Thanks so much.

您能否向我們解釋一下您所說的內容，您如何激勵您的供應鏈增加產能，特別是從處於瓶頸狀態的組件到更關鍵的組件？非常感謝。

Just maybe building on my commentary earlier, I think today, the nature of our conversations with suppliers is really providing them the visibility and the certainty that they need to make the investments to support the growth that we're forecasting. And so we're not particularly providing any specific financial incentives, but we are working much more closely with our suppliers in terms of visibility and we're working through multiyear agreements, which are backed up by multiyear agreements that we also have with our customers.

也許基於我先前的評論，我認為今天，我們與供應商的對話的性質實際上為他們提供了可見性和確定性，他們需要進行投資來支持我們預測的成長。因此，我們並沒有特別提供任何具體的財務激勵，但我們在可見性方面與供應商進行了更緊密的合作，並且我們正在透過多年期協議開展工作，這些協議也得到了我們與客戶簽訂的多年期協議的支持。

But I'd say, by and large, this notion that the US is stacking up capacity from the rest of the world, there's probably some truth to that because clearly, we're seeing a much stronger economy and much more significant growth in the US compared to the rest of the world. That's actually a good balance for Eaton. That's a good thing for us.

但我想說，總的來說，美國正在從世界其他國家吸收產能的說法可能有一定道理，因為很明顯，與世界其他國家相比，美國的經濟更加強勁，成長也更加顯著。對於伊頓來說，這實際上是一個很好的平衡。這對我們來說是件好事。

So that comment, it doesn't surprise me, but this capacity is simply flowing to where the real demand is.

因此，這個評論並不讓我感到驚訝，但這種產能只是流向了真正有需求的地方。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Steve Tusa, JP Morgan.

摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

Hi, good morning. The pipeline you guys talked about and these megaprojects, what does that mean for orders as you look forward over the course of this year? I mean, is this -- obviously, this pipeline keeps growing and it's massive on. The backlog is a flat this year, even book-to-bill in a bit above 1. But like, what is the visibility on these megaprojects and things like that actually like converting into another reacceleration in orders?

嗨，早安。你們談到的管道和這些大型項目，對於今年的訂單來說意味著什麼？我的意思是，這是——顯然，這個管道不斷增長，而且規模巨大。今年的積壓訂單量持平，訂單出貨比略高於 1。但是，這些大型項目的可見性以及諸如此類的事情實際上會轉化為訂單的另一次加速嗎？

Thanks, Steve. This is Paulo. I would say that it's very difficult to forecast orders for megaprojects. It'll be a bit speculative, but I can give you a sense on what you're seeing. As Craig mentioned, with our negotiation pipeline growing 60%, that's what gave us confidence between announcement and revenues, between three and five years, while we've said in the past and since we started falling those prices in '21, '22. It's to be expected than now, we start to see the effect.

謝謝，史蒂夫。這是保羅。我想說，預測大型專案的訂單非常困難。這可能有點推測，但我可以讓你了解你所看到的東西。正如克雷格所提到的，我們的談判管道成長了 60%，這讓我們對公告和收入之間（三到五年之間）充滿信心，而我們過去曾說過，自從我們在 21 年、22 年開始降低這些價格以來。不出所料，現在我們開始看到效果了。

And as Craig said, our sales doubled in '24 from megaprojects versus '23. Now to make -- to pinpoint the order entry for that would be very difficult, and I don't want to speculate on it. So the best way for us to understand this longevity of the cycle is to continue to tell you the megaprojects we see and how the negotiation finalized our evolving.

正如克雷格所說，2024 年我們的大型專案銷售額比 2023 年翻了一番。現在要確定該訂單的輸入將非常困難，而且我不想對此進行推測。因此，我們了解這一週期長度的最好方法是繼續告訴您我們看到的大型專案以及談判如何最終確定我們的發展。

Okay. And then lastly on this data center saying, the starts you say -- you talked about nearly doubling in '24. I guess your orders' up 75%. So I mean, are you shipping to the starts or are you shipping to add to at some point in the middle of the project as it gets built? Or are you shipping blanket orders from the hyperscalers where they order a big number and then they distribute as they go?

好的。最後，關於這個資料中心，您說的開始——您談到 24 年幾乎翻了一番。我猜你的訂單增加了 75%。所以我的意思是，您是先將貨物運送到專案啟動階段，還是在專案建置過程中的某個時間點再進行運送？或者您是否從超大規模企業發送了總訂單，他們訂購大量訂單，然後隨時分發？

Like, how much visibility do you have as to when you're actually shipping to these guys?

例如，當你實際向這些人發貨時，你有多少了解的餘地？

Yes. So thanks for the question. Again, I think the best way to answer your question is we have multiyear visibility on the forecast. Craig was talking about the forecast we give to our suppliers. We're also a supplier to the big data center operators. We were given a forecast. In some cases, we have hard commitments from them. So that's the visibility we have.

是的。感謝您的提問。再次強調，我認為回答你的問題的最佳方法是我們對預測有多年的了解。克雷格正在談論我們向供應商提供的預測。我們也是大型資料中心營運商的供應商。我們得到了一份預測。在某些情況下，我們得到了他們嚴格的承諾。這就是我們所擁有的可見性。

In terms of [sending] the product, we're going to send the product as the project requires. We don't ship in all -- if the site is not ready. We follow the construction of the data center and by saying that, some of our products could come earlier, like the transformers, the switchgear. And then the UPS is what goes inside the server room and comes later.

關於產品發送，我們將按照項目要求發送產品。如果站點尚未準備好，我們不會發貨。我們關注資料中心的建設，這樣一來，我們的一些產品可能會更早推出，例如變壓器、開關設備。然後 UPS 進入伺服器機房，稍後再使用。

So in different phases of the project, I would say. (multiple speakers) --

所以我想說，在專案的不同階段。（多位發言者）——

We talked about a start and it's a shovel that goes in the ground. And so we're not shipping anything at that point, but that's when a project becomes real and one of projects that you can truly count on it as a project that's likely going to be completed.

我們談論的是開始，它是一把插入地面的鏟子。因此，我們當時不會運送任何東西，但那時項目就變成了現實，而且是一個你可以真正依靠的項目，有可能完成。

Yes. Okay, great. Thanks a lot, guys.

是的。好的，太好了。非常感謝大家。

Jeffrey Sprague, Vertical Research.

傑弗裡·斯普拉格（Jeffrey Sprague），垂直研究公司。

Yes, thanks. Good morning, everyone. Maybe just one more on data centers from maybe -- there's others coming in the pipeline. But also just historically, when we were talking about megaprojects, it did not include data centers because of that $1 billion threshold. But now, for example, we've got Amazon doing this $16 billion campus in Mississippi and other things.

是的，謝謝。大家早安。也許還有關於資料中心的更多內容——還有其他內容正在籌備中。但從歷史上看，當我們談論大型專案時，由於 10 億美元的門檻，它並不包括資料中心。但現在，例如，亞馬遜在密西西比州建造了耗資 160 億美元的園區並開展其他項目。

I just wondered if you could give us a sense of how much data center is now and the megaproject number that you're sharing with us today, if you have visibility on that?

我只是想知道您是否可以告訴我們現在的資料中心有多少，以及您今天與我們分享的大型專案的數量，您是否了解這些？

Yes, the exact number -- first of all, your thesis is absolutely correct, Jeff, that as these data center projects have become bigger, some of them are now falling into the category of megaprojects. And so clearly, we're seeing data centers show up in that category as well.

是的，確切的數字——首先，傑夫，你的論點完全正確，隨著這些資料中心專案變得越來越大，其中一些現在已經屬於大型專案的範疇。顯然，我們看到資料中心也出現在這一類別中。

I don't have the exact percentage (technical difficulty) Chandni?

我不知道確切的百分比（技術難度）月光？

As you showed in the slide as well, it's 17%.

正如您在幻燈片中所展示的，該比例為 17%。

So 17%. But the other thing I'm just going to tell the group and we shared this slide in one of the earlier earnings calls, that we track megaprojects $1 billion above, but we also track the balance of projects, which is from $25 billion to $1 billion. And we're seeing the same trends in that segment of the market. We're seeing tremendous growth as well in projects and all these other categories.

所以是 17%。但我要告訴小組的另一件事是，我們在之前的一次收益電話會議上分享了這張投影片，我們追蹤 10 億美元以上的大型項目，但我們也追蹤項目的餘額，從 250 億美元到 10 億美元。我們在該市場領域也看到了同樣的趨勢。我們也看到項目和所有其他類別的巨大成長。

And so clearly, we're seeing more significant growth in megaprojects, but we are, in fact, seeing very strong growth in the balance of the segment as well.

顯然，我們看到大型專案的成長更加顯著，但事實上，我們也看到該領域的平衡成長非常強勁。

Great. And then just looking -- obviously, you want to save most of it for us, but Paulo, I'm just thinking about Electrical Global specifically. I know you have an aspiration to improve the margins there over time. Obviously, there's just scales and economic advantages to Americas that maybe can't ever be replicated in the global franchise.

偉大的。然後看看——顯然，你想為我們節省大部分，但是保羅，我只是在具體考慮全球電氣公司。我知道您渴望隨著時間的推移提高利潤率。顯然，美洲的規模和經濟優勢也許永遠無法在全球特許經營中複製。

But what could you share with us about your view of what can be done to kind of improve the margins in Electrical Global? And maybe at least narrow the gap versus the big brother in the Americas.

但是，您能否與我們分享一下您對於如何提高 Electrical Global 利潤率的看法？或許至少可以縮小與美洲老大哥之間的差距。

Thanks for the questions. So first of all, in March, we're going to be talking about our long-range commitments until 2030 for every segment. So you're going to have clarity, not only in electrical global, but every segment we report, see an improvement, and this is based on two biggest group of actions.

感謝您的提問。首先，在三月份，我們將討論我們對每個領域的 2030 年的長期承諾。因此，您不僅會清楚了解全球電力市場，而且我們報告的每個部分都會看到改進，這是基於兩大行動。

One is the benefits of the restructuring that start to hit the P&L and help us. And the other part is as we start shipping those large orders that we have on the data center side specifically, we're also going to have more productivity gains from the volume coming up.

一是重組的好處開始影響損益並對我們有幫助。另一方面，當我們開始運送資料中心方面的大訂單時，我們的生產力也將因訂單量的增加而提高。

There are many other things we can and we'll do. One thing is to continue to complete our portfolio step b step, build the same strength we have in North America, but all also continue to drive our operations. As Craig said, we are never satisfied. We never get complacent. We always drive improvements. There's still a lot to be done there, but not only in global, even Electrical Americas, there's a lot for us to go do.

我們還可以做很多其他的事情，而且我們也願意做很多其他的事情。一件事是繼續逐步完善我們的投資組合，建立我們在北美的同樣實力，但這一切也將繼續推動我們的營運。正如克雷格所說，我們永遠不會滿足。我們從不自滿。我們始終致力於改進。還有很多工作要做，但不僅在全球範圍內，甚至在美洲電氣領域，我們也有很多工作要做。

And the only thing I'll add to that, Paulo, is you're absolutely right. You heard Olivier's commentary. Mix has been a bit of a headwind as well for our business there. When you see obviously some of the data around the MOEM segment, the manufacturing segment, which tends to be a much higher percentage of our business in Europe. And those markets being down to the extent that they have has really hurt that particular region from our profitability.

保羅，我唯一要補充的是，你完全正確。你聽到了奧利維爾的評論。Mix 也對我們在那裡的業務造成了一些阻礙。當您明顯看到有關 MOEM 部門（製造部門）的一些數據時，您會發現該部門在我們歐洲的業務中所佔的比例要高得多。這些市場的低迷確實損害了我們在該地區的獲利能力。

So as that market begins to normalize and recover, we should also see a natural improvement in profitability there as well.

因此，隨著該市場開始正常化和復甦，我們也應該看到其獲利能力的自然改善。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Deane Dray, RBC.

迪恩德雷（Deane Dray），加拿大皇家銀行。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I realize this is a rebuild time story here and it's a moving target. But just when you talk about tariffs, potential impact, vulnerabilities, preparations you've gone through already?

謝謝。大家早安。我意識到這是一個重建時間的故事，而且是一個移動的目標。但是當您談到關稅、潛在影響、脆弱性、您已經做過的準備工作時？

Yeah, I can talk about that, Deane. So first of all, we are on top of it, we are ready. We know potentially from depending on what's announced, we know exactly what to trigger. We moved our production much closer to the consumption side. So that decreases the impact of the tariffs. But we have a playbook. We've done that before, we are ready.

是的，我可以談論這個，迪恩。首先，我們已經做好準備，並處於領先地位。我們知道，根據宣布的內容，我們確切地知道要觸發什麼。我們將生產轉移到更靠近消費端的地方。這樣就降低了關稅的影響。但我們有劇本。我們以前就這麼做過，我們已經準備好了。

We know exactly where to apply in our commercial actions and we do. We're fully compensated with commercial actions, if necessary. Hopefully not necessary, but if they come to force, we're going to comply and we're going to compensate the commercial actions.

我們清楚知道在商業活動中應該應用在哪裡，而我們也確實這麼做了。如果有必要，我們將透過商業行動給予充分的補償。希望不是必要的，但如果他們採取強制措施，我們就會遵守，並對商業行為進行補償。

Great, that's helpful. I'll be staying tuned there. And then Jeff was right, there was more data center questions, so I just -- first of all, that (inaudible) was really helpful. I appreciate all those specifics and Craig, I also appreciate the confidence that you've expressed today about the long-term growth prospects in data center. Would have loved to have heard Monday as well, but so we guided today.

太好了，很有幫助。我會繼續關注。然後傑夫是對的，還有更多有關數據中心的問題，所以我只是 - 首先，那（聽不清楚）真的很有幫助。我很欣賞所有這些細節，克雷格，我也欣賞你今天對資料中心長期成長前景所表達的信心。我也希望在周一聽到這個消息，但今天我們就進行了指導。

Just kind of share for us wha the teams are watching for for any changes at the margin in terms of build-out expectations?I mean, we're watching hyperscale CapEx growth and you can check the boxes at that mine in the past couple of weeks. Help out -- your customers have been asking you for five-year supply agreements. Just remind us, those are not take or pay, just how are those set up and whether there's been anything how you're watching those play out or any other indicators you think are important?

能否與我們分享一下，各團隊正在關注擴建預期方面的任何變化？意思是，我們正在觀察超大規模資本支出的成長，你可以在過去幾週檢查礦場的情況。提供協助－您的客戶一直要求您簽訂五年供應協議。只是提醒我們，這些不是索取或支付，只是它們是如何設置的，以及您是否觀察到它們如何發揮作用，或者您認為其他重要的指標？

Thanks for the question, Deane. I would say that the order that comes from our customers to accelerate and whatever we can do also in terms of technology through modular solutions that could accelerate our build. You heard what Craig said that the industry found ways to accelerate the build-out, which is great, but they're still sitting on seven years of backlog as of today. So there's more to be done there.

謝謝你的提問，迪恩。我想說的是，來自客戶的訂單加速了我們能做的事情，在技術方面，透過模組化解決方案也能加速我們的建設。您聽到克雷格說，該行業已經找到了加速建設的方法，這很好，但截至今天，他們仍然面臨七年的積壓。因此還有很多工作要做。

In terms of the agreements is -- and I would say, as we look back the last years, we haven't seen a single cancellation here. So most of the discussions we have, including after the news this week is about continuing to invest note, no distraction on the news this week, and continue to build.

就協議而言——我想說，回顧過去幾年，我們還沒有看到任何一項協議被取消。因此，我們進行的大部分討論，包括本週新聞之後的討論，都是關於繼續投資，不要被本週的新聞分散注意力，繼續建設。

And you see how our negotiation pipeline development is developing and our backlog as well. So I think the way for continues to be to accelerate the build-outs.

您可以看到我們的談判管道發展以及我們的積壓工作進展。因此我認為繼續加快建設才是出路。

The only that I would add to that, and Paulo was absolutely right, the things that we were concerned about prior to Monday, we're still concerned about today and the constraints around whether that power availability, whether that site availability, whether that's labor availability, or where there will be constraints in supply chain.

我唯一想補充的是，保羅說得完全正確，我們在周一之前擔心的事情，我們今天仍然擔心，以及電力供應是否充足、場地是否可用、勞動力是否充足，或者供應鏈中是否存在限制因素。

And as I mentioned, we do believe this market is fading and quite frankly, the numbers that we're getting from our customers are much higher than the numbers we're baking into our forecast. But we do believe there will be constraints along the way and those are the things that we were worried about prior to Monday. Those are things that we're still worried about.

正如我所提到的，我們確實相信這個市場正在衰退，坦白說，我們從客戶那裡得到的數字遠高於我們預測的數字。但我們確實相信在過程中會存在一些限制，而這些正是我們在周一之前擔心的事情。這些是我們仍然擔心的事情。

I think what happened on Monday with DeepSeek, I think it's way too early to know how that will influence the evolution of this market. But as I said in my commentary, history repeats itself. It should mean faster growth, faster adoption, and it could be a good day.

我認為週一發生的 DeepSeek 事件，現在判斷它將如何影響這個市場的發展還為時過早。但正如我在評論中所說，歷史會重演。這意味著更快的成長、更快的採用，這可能是美好的一天。

That's really helpful. Appreciate it. See you in March.

這真的很有幫助。非常感謝。三月見。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for the details. We appreciate all these end markets perspective. I'm just maybe switching gears to aerospace. So you called out the impact of the Boeing strike in the fourth quarter just to quote you, you are forecasting a deceleration to [79%], still very, very healthy.

大家早安，感謝您提供的詳細資訊。我們欣賞所有這些終端市場的觀點。我可能只是轉向航空航天業。所以您提到了波音罷工對第四季的影響，引用您的話說，您預測成長率將減速至 [79%]，但仍然非常非常健康。

But given the moving pieces that we have here, I just wondered if maybe just give us some perspective on what you're baking in for OE versus aftermarkets and perhaps commercial versus military?

但考慮到我們這裡存在的變動，我只是想知道，是否能給我們一些關於你們針對原始設備製造商 (OE) 和售後市場，以及商業和軍事市場所製定的計劃的觀點？

Okay. Thanks for the question. So we are -- as you pointed out, the market is really growing. I think it's important that we give you the breakdown. To be specific here, we see a low-double-digit in OEM and we see high-single-digit in aftermarket. And then in OE, we see low-double digits for both military and commercial.

好的。謝謝你的提問。所以，正如您所指出的，市場確實在成長。我認為向您提供詳細情況非常重要。具體來說，我們看到 OEM 的成長速度為低兩位數，而售後市場的成長速度為高個位數。然後在 OE 中，我們看到軍事和商業的成長率都達到了兩位數以下。

And in terms of the build-outs, we watch customers are doing. We are ready for the ramp, including Boeing's ramp and also Airbus' ramp for CapEx. We don't take their buildouts as per face value. So we are a little more cautious in our forecast. That was the reason that in 2024, with all the difficulties in the industry in the year and strikes, we still met our commitments for growth for the full year.

就建設而言，我們觀察客戶的做法。我們已經做好了準備，包括波音的坡道和空中巴士的資本支出坡道。我們不會根據表面價值來看待他們的建設。因此，我們的預測會更加謹慎一些。這就是為什麼在 2024 年，儘管產業面臨重重困難和罷工，我們仍然履行了全年成長的承諾。

I'm sorry, did you include the aftermarket sales?

抱歉，您包括售後市場銷售嗎？

Can you repeat your question? I couldn't hear that.

你能重複一下你的問題嗎？我聽不見。

Sorry, I heard the OE comments, but what about the aftermarket comments?

抱歉，我聽到了 OE 的評論，但是售後市場的評論呢？

Aftermarket will be high-single digits.

售後市場將達到高個位數。

Okay. That's helpful. And then my follow-on is around utility. It seems like it's normalizing down to like a high-single-digit range for 2025, it's been down double digits for a long time. Just wondering maybe just a bit more perspective on what you see in your utility end markets? And maybe just kind of thinking about that capacity expansion as that comes online, is there potential for utility to be accelerated as you can [reduce] some of that backlog?

好的。這很有幫助。接下來我要討論的是實用性。看起來，到 2025 年，這一數字將逐漸恢復正常，降至高個位數範圍，而之前很長一段時間以來，這一數字一直處於兩位數的下降趨勢。我只是想知道您對公用事業終端市場有何看法？也許只是考慮一下產能擴張，隨著產能的上線，是否有可能加速效用，因為你可以[減少]一些積壓？

Okay. Well, thanks for the question. Again, I would say -- I would answer in two steps. The first one, I'm going to remind you and everyone what drives the industry and utilities and then I'm going to talk about the effects at Eaton.

好的。嗯，謝謝你的提問。再次強調，我會分兩步驟回答。首先，我要提醒大家是什麼推動了產業和公用事業的發展，然後我將談談對伊頓的影響。

So in the first part, I would say what drives growth in utility distribution where we play, there's a big portion of replacement of aging infrastructure that you probably heard about. The second thing that drives the growth is also the hardening of the resilience part. So think about all the natural events, fires, floods, hurricanes, et cetera, (inaudible) are getting ready to be more resilient to face those issues.

因此，在第一部分中，我想說，推動我們所在的公用事業分銷成長的因素是，您可能聽說過很大一部分是老化基礎設施的更換。推動成長的第二個因素也是韌性部分的強化。所以想想所有的自然事件，火災、洪水、颶風等等，（聽不清楚）都準備好更有彈性地應對這些問題。

The third piece is about the increased energy consumption and also that part of that increase also is a data center story, but there's more to it. So that's how the industry plays. If you move that to Eaton the effects above that, our company, you know that we are heavily weighted to the US distribution network. So we expect this CapEx to be in the high-single digits, and it's consistent with third-party forecasts like SMP, EEI or et cetera.

第三部分是關於能源消耗的增加，而能源消耗的增加也與資料中心有關，但還不止於此。這就是這個行業的運作方式。如果您將其轉移到伊頓，那麼對我們公司的影響就更大了，您就會知道我們非常依賴美國分銷網絡。因此，我們預期該資本支出將達到高個位數，並且與 SMP、EEI 等第三方預測一致。

And we think this high-single digit, I want to give a little more clarity because I think it's important as you compare Eaton to other electrical players. We see within this high-single-digit market, we see strong double-digit growth, the offers, which is most of what we do. So think about switch gear regulators, rig closers, capacity. So that part of the market will continue to grow strongly double digits.

我們認為這個高個位數，我想給出更清晰的解釋，因為我認為當你將伊頓與其他電氣公司進行比較時，這一點很重要。我們看到，在這個高個位數的市場中，我們看到了強勁的兩位數成長，這些報價就是我們所做的大部分工作。因此，請考慮開關設備調節器、鑽孔機閉合器和容量。因此該部分市場將持續保持兩位數的強勁成長。

And there is an offset more on the lower value add of the chain, which is related to a single-phase transformers, those fall transformers, online installation equipment, more the hardware piece that some of our competitors are pretty focused on.

並且，在鏈條的較低附加價值上存在更多的偏移，這與單相變壓器、秋季變壓器、線上安裝設備以及我們的一些競爭對手非常關注的硬體部分有關。

So it's a high-single-digit growth for us but there is a double-digit side that we like the most and the other part of the market is growing not so fastly. If you go outside North America, if you look at a global, outside China continues to invest very heavily in utility, right? Both in generation and renewables and all of these transmissions distribution in China.

因此，對我們來說，這是一個高個位數的成長，但我們最喜歡的是兩位數的成長，而市場的其他部分成長速度則不那麼快。如果你走出北美，放眼全球，你會發現中國以外的地區繼續在公用事業投入巨資，對嗎？無論是發電、再生能源或所有這些輸電和分配都在中國。

Electricity consumption is increasing, 7% is very big for a country that side. So we also expect a strong growth coming (technical difficulty). In terms of capacity, we as part of our investments, we are also adding capacity to utility, and we do that in a modular fashion. We do that in a way that can also serve other markets like a transformer could go into data center. We go into facilities. Some of the switchgear can be used in other end markets. So we feel good about our prospects and the advancements we are making.

電力消耗正在增加，7%對一個國家來說已經是很大的成長了。因此，我們也預期未來（技術難度）。在容量方面，作為投資的一部分，我們也正在增加公用事業的容量，並且以模組化的方式進行。我們這樣做的方式也可以服務其他市場，例如變壓器可以進入資料中心。我們進入設施。一些開關設備可用於其他終端市場。因此，我們對我們的前景和正在取得的進步感到滿意。

Great. Thanks, Paulo. Super helpful.

偉大的。謝謝，保羅。超有幫助。

Nicole DeBlase, Deutsche Bank.

妮可‧德布拉斯 (Nicole DeBlase)，德意志銀行。

Yes, thanks. Good morning, guys. Maybe just starting with Americas. Margin expansion there really impresses yet again this quarter. I guess the 2025 guidance on the embedded like 10 to 40 [bed] severe on year expansion, could you talk a little bit about what's going on there?

是的，謝謝。大家早安。也許只是從美洲開始。本季利潤率的擴大再次令人印象深刻。我猜想 2025 年嵌入式指導將每年大幅擴張 10 到 40 個 [床位]，您能否談談目前的情況？

Is there maybe some conservatism embedded or are margins just getting to a point where it's going to be tougher to expand them from these best-in-class levels?

是否存在某種保守主義，或者利潤率是否已經達到一個臨界點，以致於從一流水平進一步擴大利潤率將變得更加困難？

Thanks, Nicole. So I would say there is always space for us to improve margins and it's also valid for the Electrical Americas. Just think about all the manufacturing efficiencies we can generate on existing facilities, but also the other facilities we are adding to the business. There's still more for us to go do there so I don't think this is the top margin for this segment. I would reiterate that. This is one.

謝謝，妮可。所以我想說我們總是有提高利潤率的空間，這對美國電氣公司來說也是如此。想想我們可以在現有設施上產生的所有製造效率，以及我們正在為業務添加的其他設施。我們還有很多工作要做，所以我不認為這是該部分的最高利潤。我要重申這一點。這是一個。

For 2025, most of the growth will come from volume. So if you compare to prior year starting last year, we already had more volume than pricing in our composition for growth. This year, the vast majority would be volume in our breakdown, which is something for you to consider. As pricing normalizes, it's to be expected.

到 2025 年，大部分成長將來自產量。因此，如果與去年同期相比，我們的銷售量已經超過了成長組成中的定價。今年我們細分的絕大多數是數量，這是值得大家考慮的。隨著價格逐漸正常化，這是可以預料的。

And this year as we are adding capacity in the 20 projects, startups and start-up costs, so that's what makes the comparable basis. Not so strong year over year, but as Craig said before, we always drive ourselves to a higher number. And this is not different for Electrical Americas internally.

今年，我們將在 20 個專案中增加產能、啟動專案和啟動成本，這就是可比較的基礎。雖然同比沒有那麼強勁，但正如克雷格之前所說，我們始終努力追求更高的目標。這對於 Electrical Americas 內部來說也沒有什麼不同。

Thanks, Paulo. That makes sense. And then you mentioned appetite for M&A in the prepared remarks. Could you talk a little bit about the current pipeline and areas of greatest interest?

謝謝，保羅。這很有道理。然後您在準備好的演講中提到了對併購的興趣。您能否談談當前的管道和最感興趣的領域？

Sure. I would say our major areas of interest continues to be data centers, utilities, and aerospace. So electric and aerospace. And in terms of the size of acquisitions, what we are interested in doing in the short and midterm is to look at our bolt-on acquisitions that can accelerate our organic strategy. So Electrical and Aerospace would be the answer and the size will be more like a bolt-on.

當然。我想說我們的主要興趣領域仍然是資料中心、公用事業和航空航天。所以是電動和航空航天。就收購規模而言，我們在短期和中期感興趣的是研究可以加速我們有機策略的附加收購。因此，電氣和航空航天將是答案，並且尺寸將更像是螺栓固定。

And to make a point, bolt-on definition for Eaton moved over time as well, since we have a bigger company and bigger evaluation. But it continues to be the focus of the team.

需要說明的是，隨著公司規模的擴大和評估的提高，伊頓的附加定義也隨著時間的推移而改變了。但它仍然是團隊關注的重點。

Thank you, Paulo. I'll pass it on.

謝謝你，保羅。我會傳達的。

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的喬·里奇。

Hey, guys, good morning. So I'll focus both my questions on Electrical Americas margins. And if you go back a year ago, rewind the clock, you were expecting margins to be about 300 basis points lower than where we ended up in 2024. So I'm just curious, I know that growth was slightly better, but what other levers really kind of drove that margin expansion this past year?

嘿，大家早安。因此，我將把我的問題集中在 Electrical Americas 的利潤率上。如果你回顧一年前，回顧一下，你預計利潤率將比 2024 年的水準低約 300 個基點。所以我只是好奇，我知道成長稍微好一些，但去年還有哪些因素真正推動了利潤率的擴大？

Yes. First of all, I would say I'm very proud of that team. They really executed it super well. I think that's the first thing I want to say. And they're executing on the top line, they're also executing well in their operations. So they run the business better than what we expected in the operations. This is one thing, and we could drive outsourced supply chain to better results.

是的。首先，我想說我為這支球隊感到非常自豪。他們確實執行得非常好。我想這是我想說的第一件事。他們在營收方面表現優異，在營運方面也表現良好。因此，他們的業務運作比我們預期的要好。這是一方面，我們可以推動外包供應鏈取得更好的成果。

So overall, there's an operational performance improvement for the business that drove the extra margin. And that's how we are wired for this year as well. We are dealing with those capacity ramp-ups, which again, are going well, they've been developing very well. But the team is focused there and they would be disappointed if they cannot beat their own numbers. So the spirit is still the same.

因此整體而言，企業的營運績效有所提高，從而帶來了額外的利潤。這也是我們今年的計畫。我們正在處理這些產能提升問題，而且進展順利，發展得非常好。但球隊的注意力都集中在那裡，如果他們不能擊敗自己的對手，他們會感到失望。所以精神還是一樣的。

Got it. That's helpful, Paulo. And then i guess, a\just one follow-up. So the backlog is up 29% year over year. I mean, it's hard to imagine that the margins and the backlog today are lower than the margins in the backlog on 12 months ago, but I don't want to put words in your mouth. So is there any color you can kind of give us on how the margins look like today in the backlog versus a year ago?

知道了。這很有幫助，保羅。然後我想，只是一個後續問題。因此積壓訂單年增了 29%。我的意思是，很難想像今天的利潤率和積壓訂單比 12 個月前的積壓訂單利潤率還要低，但我不想強加於你。那麼，您能否向我們介紹一下今天積壓訂單的利潤率與一年前相比如何？

No, they are in line. They are in line with what we are presenting today. Largely in line.

不，他們在排隊。它們與我們今天所介紹的內容一致。大體上一致。

Okay, great. All right, thank you, guys.

好的，太好了。好的，謝謝大家。

Scott Davis, Melius Research.

戴維斯 (Scott Davis)，Melius Research。

Hey, guys. Can you give us a sense, a couple of cleanup items here, but the $990 million of CapEx, how much of that is growth versus maintenance? Is that kind of [700, 600] growth trust maintenance? Is that the way to think about it? I don't think we've (technical difficulty) our debt up in the past.

嘿，大家好。您能否為我們介紹一下，這裡有一些清理項目，但是 9.9 億美元的資本支出中有多少是成長，有多少是維護？那是 [700, 600] 成長信託維護嗎？是這樣思考的嗎？我認為我們過去沒有（技術難題）增加債務。

No, actually the $900 million is going to be gross CapEx. The large proportion of that is going to be growth. The team is doing a good job actually, rationalizing our CapEx investments. We have financial detail that has been a principle that Craig has implemented for a number of years.

不，實際上這 9 億美元是總資本支出。其中很大一部分將是成長。團隊實際上做得很好，合理化了我們的資本支出投資。我們擁有財務細節，這是克雷格多年來一直貫徹的原則。

So most of the of the capital ex would be growth. I would say 80%.

因此，大部分資本支出將用於成長。我想說 80%。

That sounds about right. Just completely different from the conversation today, but does it still make the same sense to have e-mobility as a standalone segment today as it did when -- gosh, I can't remember when it was, like six years ago or maybe seven years ago. It seems -- does it still make the most sense to add that as a standalone and operationally standalone?

聽起來很對。與今天的談話完全不同，但今天將電子移動作為一個獨立的領域是否仍然有意義，就像當時一樣——天哪，我不記得是什麼時候了，例如六年前或七年前。看起來——將其添加為獨立且可獨立操作仍然是最有意義的嗎？

So there are two questions. The first one is how do we run that; that's a separate question. From a reporting standpoint, the dynamic of those two businesses is very different and we want to show to our investors how those two businesses evolve thing. Again, they have, say, different margin profiles, different growth profile. So externally, we'll keep doing what we do today.

所以有兩個問題。第一個問題是我們如何運行它；這是一個單獨的問題。從報告的角度來看，這兩項業務的動態非常不同，我們希望向投資者展示這兩項業務是如何發展的。再者，他們有不同的利潤率狀況、不同的成長狀況。因此，就外部而言，我們將繼續做我們今天所做的事情。

I think the way we run it for synergies, in our SG&A savings, and we also use up the elapses one, have you won another. We experienced lower demand on EVs and then our internal combustion engine business could benefit on the programs in the long run. We believe we continue to give you the transparency we started giving you years ago. I think it will be beneficial for all.

我認為我們運行它的方式是為了實現協同效應，在我們的銷售、一般及行政費用節省中，我們也用完了過去的費用，你又贏了一次。我們經歷了電動車需求的下降，因此從長遠來看，我們的內燃機業務可能會從該計劃中受益。我們相信，我們將繼續為您提供多年前就開始提供的透明度。我認為這對所有人都有好處。

The technologies in many ways, is more akin to our electrical business than it is to our vehicle business. And so the hardware piece, obviously much greater affinity with legacy vehicle, but from a technology and a product standpoint, much greater connectivity to the electrical businesses.

從很多方面來看，這些技術與我們的電氣業務比與我們的汽車業務更為相似。因此，硬體部分顯然與傳統車輛具有更大的親和力，但從技術和產品的角度來看，與電氣業務的連接性更強。

That makes sense. We'll see you guys have March. Thank you.

這很有道理。我們會在三月見到你們。謝謝。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Hi, good afternoon. I know it's been an hour, so I'll keep these questions short. First one, just on slide 6. Again, I just wanted to double check the 45% data center sales growth number on the left-hand side. Just wanted to check what the sort of base revenue figure for 2023 that applied to. I know you've given a sort of $3.3 billion number before, but 45% growth on that would imply only electrical sales growth was from data center, which I think it was broader based than that. Any sort of help around that, please?

嗨，下午好。我知道已經過去一個小時了，所以我會簡短地回答這些問題。第一個，就在投影片 6 上。再次，我只是想再次檢查左側 45% 的資料中心銷售成長數字。只是想檢查一下 2023 年適用的基本收入數字。我知道您之前給出 33 億美元的數字，但 45% 的成長意味著只有電力銷售成長來自資料中心，我認為它的基礎比這更廣泛。請問您能提供什麼協助嗎？

I appreciate the question, Julian. And I know sometimes it's tough to make all the math but numbers that we report as a percentage of the total company, it's not only data centers; it includes the IT channel. So you can't take that number and extrapolate what happens in the bouts of the businesses because that data center number is not only the data center segment.

我很感謝你提出這個問題，朱利安。我知道有時計算起來很困難，但我們報告的數字佔整個公司的百分比不僅包括資料中心，還包括 IT 管道。因此，您不能根據該數字推斷出業務週期中發生的情況，因為該資料中心數字不僅僅是資料中心部分。

But way to think about, I think what you're trying to get to is that what was the growth in the balance of the businesses when you strip out data centers?And what I would tell you is that very much like we covered in my chart in my presentation station where I talked about how these markets performed relative to our expectation. We saw good growth in commercial and institutional.

但是想想看，我想你想知道的是，當你剝離資料中心時，業務平衡的成長是多少？我想告訴你們的是，這非常像我們在演示站的圖表中提到的那樣，我在其中討論了這些市場相對於我們的預期的表現。我們看到商業和機構領域出現了良好的成長。

We are like high-single digit numbers and utility, high single, low double-digit numbers. We saw good growth in industrial, more mid singles, but then it was offset by some declines in some legacy vehicle business. It was offset by declines in residential. It was offset by declines in MOEM.

我們就像高個位數和實用性，高個位數，低兩位數。我們看到工業和中型單車業務實現了良好成長，但隨後被一些傳統汽車業務的下滑所抵消。但這一數字被住宅銷售額的下降所抵消。但這增幅被 MOEM 的下滑所抵消。

So it really is once again, very much consistent with what I laid out on slide 4 for in the deck. Our businesses performed largely in line with those market numbers. But we do appreciate the question because sometimes it's difficult to make the math foot.

因此，這確實再次與我在投影片第 4 頁中列出的內容非常一致。我們的業務表現與這些市場數據基本一致。但我們確實很感激這個問題，因為有時候很難做出數學計算。

That's very helpful. And based on the sort of capacity expansions you talked about and the other strengths in data center, when we're thinking about sort of the 2025 electrical revenue growth guidance, is that assuming a sort of similar-ish, very strong gross rate in data center this year as well?

這非常有幫助。根據您談到的容量擴展和資料中心的其他優勢，當我們考慮 2025 年電力收入成長指引時，是否假設今年資料中心的毛利率也類似且非常強勁？

True. Yes. The answer is yes.

真的。是的。答案是肯定的。

We may not be counting on the same rate of growth as we can vary per share, but still very, very strong growth.

我們可能不會指望同樣的成長率，因為每股的成長率可能會有所不同，但成長仍然非常強勁。

Got it. And then one last silly one. Aerospace, flat margins for three years guided to expand this year. Any color on the drivers, please?

知道了。最後再說一個愚蠢的事。航空航太業，三年來利潤率持平，預計今年利潤率將擴大。請問驅動程式有顏色嗎？

Sure. Julian, I think the bigger here is operational performance. We were not satisfied with the way we run our facilities. the whole industry and also went through difficulties in the last year so there's still inefficiencies for us to go deal with. But if you look at what we did in vehicle over time in even more difficult environment, we managed to move margins up. So that's the mandate of the new management team to do the exactly the same with the vehicle, in aerospace with biggest advances in aerospace. We count on much more predictable orders.

當然。朱利安，我認為這裡更重要的是營運績效。我們對營運設施的方式並不滿意。整個產業在去年也經歷了困難，因此我們仍然需要處理效率低下的問題。但如果你看看我們在更困難的環境下在車輛方面所做的努力，我們設法提高了利潤率。因此，新管理團隊的任務就是對太空船採取同樣的措施，在航空航太領域取得最大的進展。我們期望訂單更加可預測。

We have a very large backlog and we can drive our own company here. So I think most of the margin improvement moving forward will be a hallmark that we need to do, and that's the reason we appointed the leaders we appointed in [John's] staff in aerospace, but also for the bank who lead our vehicle business before to lead the industrial sector. That's their mandate.

我們有非常大的積壓訂單，我們可以在這裡創辦自己的公司。因此，我認為，未來利潤率的大部分提高將是我們需要做的一個標誌，這就是我們任命約翰團隊中的領導者在航空航太領域的原因，也是之前領導我們汽車業務的銀行領導工業部門的原因。這是他們的職責。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Chad Dillard, Bernstein.

查德·迪拉德，伯恩斯坦。

Hey, good afternoon, guys. Thanks for taking the question. So as AI gave us and a shift from training to our consumer, I know we can debate the pace at which just happens, but how does the electrical content and attempting to hover between these two different use cases or maybe it doesn't interfere at all?

嘿，大家下午好。感謝您回答這個問題。因此，隨著人工智慧為我們帶來從培訓到消費者的轉變，我知道我們可以爭論剛剛發生的速度，但是電氣內容如何試圖在這兩種不同的用例之間徘徊，或者它根本不會幹擾？

I guess I'm trying to understand like what's your products will do some more stuff on depedning on these use cases. Maybe before you answer this question, how much of your data center sales are --?

我想我正在嘗試了解您的產品會根據這些用例做更多的事情。在您回答這個問題之前，也許您資料中心的銷售額中有多少是--？

Okay. So let me clarify the question. You asked us before, whether changes like this secular change, what we saw, was that the first part of your question?

好的。所以讓我澄清一下這個問題。您之前問過我們，我們所看到的這種長期變化是否是您問題的第一部分？

Yeah, is the shift from like training to inferencing, just trying to help understand the difference in electrical content and intensity products.

是的，從訓練到推理的轉變，只是為了幫助理解電內容和強度產品的差異。

Okay. So for us, I would say -- I would comment on this as those breakthroughs like (inaudible) are to be expected. That's the first thing I would say. We believe when there is more adoption, as you're probably suggesting, we're going to have more inference data centers and training data centers. But we're seeing that data center, we saw the exact same portfolio, exact same portfolio.

好的。所以對我們來說，我想說——我會對此發表評論，因為像（聽不清楚）這樣的突破是可以預料的。這是我要說的第一件事。我們相信，當採用率更高時，正如您可能建議的那樣，我們將擁有更多的推理資料中心和訓練資料中心。但我們看到了那個資料中心，我們看到了完全相同的投資組合，完全相同的投資組合。

And what could be interesting and I'm not making industry forecast here because it's too early, but if you have higher adoption and the data centers are built faster, the inference data centers, most of the bottlenecks that actually create the biggest headache for data center operators will vastly go away instead of trying to accommodate gigawatt training centers.

有趣的是，由於現在還為時過早，我在這裡不做行業預測，但如果採用率更高，資料中心建設速度更快，那麼推理資料中心，實際上給資料中心運營商帶來最大麻煩的大多數瓶頸將大大消失，而不是試圖容納千兆瓦的訓練中心。

If you can accommodate a much smaller energy-consuming inference centers, the builds could accelerate. And that could be a very good thing for us as well. But best fleet will be the same transformers, will be the same switch gear, will be the same UPS inside the server hall and the software, et cetera. It's the same portfolio. No disruption there.

如果您可以容納一個耗能小得多的推理中心，那麼建造速度可能會加快。這對我們來說也可能是一件非常好的事情。但最好的機組將是相同的變壓器、相同的開關設備、伺服器機房內的相同 UPS 和軟體等等。這是同一個投資組合。那裡沒有乾擾。

Having said that, where we are actually working really closely with our hyperscale and multi-tenant data centers is in our growing their builds and be able to develop this large backlog of seven years in a nice way, that's the focus. But we got false with our key customers after Monday, the sentiments to the same, nothing changed. We keep pushing forward.

話雖如此，我們實際上正在與超大規模和多租戶資料中心密切合作，擴大他們的建設，並能夠以一種好的方式開發這七年的大量積壓，這是重點。但在周一之後，我們與主要客戶的關係變得糟糕，他們的情緒依然如故，沒有任何改變。我們不斷前進。

That's super helpful. And then just a quick one on -- I don't mean titles and talk a little bit of today, but where are the first public the core products like switch to our transformers? And once you have the capacity ads come online during the second half of this year, where would you expect that lead time to go?

這非常有幫助。然後簡單說一下——我不是指標題，而是今天談論的一點，而是第一個公開的核心產品，例如我們的變壓器開關在哪裡？一旦你們有能力在今年下半年上線廣告，你預計這個準備時間會是多久？

As we've commented before, we have two dozen projects. Some are expansion of our plants, some are new plants that we are building. And although there is no cliff event of a large one single facility, they'll move the needle, we see more of that capacity. The best answer I can give you. And yes, today we look at lead times and we continue to work on them. I think we are competitive, but they remain higher than historical levels and we want to drive them down.

正如我們之前所說，我們有二十多個項目。有些是我們的工廠擴建，有些是我們正在建造的新工廠。儘管不會出現大型單一設施的斷崖事件，但它們會推動事態發展，我們看到更多的此類容量。我能給你的最好的答案。是的，今天我們研究了交貨時間並繼續努力。我認為我們具有競爭力，但它們仍高於歷史水平，我們希望將它們降低。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Tim Thein, Citi.

花旗銀行的 Tim Thein。

Good afternoon, guys. I think I'll ask where you talked about machine builders in Europe and residential starting to bottom out, but obviously you move residential to negative for '25 from your initial assumptions like the growth. So does the markets get worse? Again, in third Q4, they just not recovered yet? And then I'll turn it. It looks like China continues to hold out for you. I think you mentioned utilities. Is there is anything else that you're seeing over there?

大家下午好。我想我會問一下您在哪裡談到歐洲的機械製造商和住宅開始觸底，但顯然您根據最初的假設（例如增長）將 25 年的住宅增長率變為負值。那麼市場會變得更糟嗎？再次，在第三季第四季度，他們還沒有恢復嗎？然後我會轉動它。看起來中國仍在繼續等你。我認為您提到了實用程式。您在那裡還看到其他東西嗎？

Yes, I'd say that in terms of what happened at the end of the year, which has us incrementally less enthusiastic in resi, as you know, as the Fed cut interest rates, everyone expected that to translate to an improvement in the residential market in borrowing costs for consumers. And that, quite frankly, hasn't happened as we all know.

是的，我想說，就年底發生的事情而言，我們對住宅的熱情逐漸降低，正如你所知，隨著聯準會降息，每個人都預計這將轉化為住宅市場消費者藉貸成本的改善。坦白說，我們都知道，這並沒有發生。

And so I'd say on the margin, resi got a bit weaker during the Q4. And I'd say on the MOEM segment, more or less a bottoming out, we think and maybe there are some green shoots in the MOEM, but specifically in resi, we've become less bullish on the resi recovery, given the fact that interest rates have remained stubbornly high.

因此我想說，從邊際上看，房地產在第四季有所減弱。我想說，就 MOEM 部分而言，我們認為或多或少已經觸底，並且 MOEM 中可能出現了一些復甦跡象，但具體到住宅方面，鑑於利率仍然居高不下，我們對住宅復甦的樂觀程度已經降低。

That's helpful. And then backlog up 29%, Electrical Americas at the end of this year, I think it was up 18% last year. This time here, you're forecasting slightly slower organic growth in '25 versus '24. I know you had some hurricane disruption in Q4 revenue. Is there anything else that slowed revenue in the quarter and then as a modestly lower forecast, just a reflection of conservatism or maybe larger projects was longer duration?

這很有幫助。然後積壓訂單增加了 29%，今年年底的美國電氣公司積壓訂單增加了 29%，我認為去年增加了 18%。這次，您預測 25 年的有機成長速度將比 24 年略慢。我知道你們第四季的收入受到了颶風的影響。還有其他因素導致本季營收成長放緩，然後預測略有下降，這僅僅反映了保守態度，還是更大的專案持續時間更長？

Yes, I would say for the Q4, we had, as Craig mentioned, we had some weaknesses in resi in the low cycle business. As we look forward, we continue to count on most of our markets are growing nicely. We have a very strong backlog, I would reiterate that and with the capacity of our plants running better, the ones we have and the expansions, we are confident in the outlook we are putting out for the 11.5% in midpoint.

是的，我想說，對於第四季度，正如 Craig 提到的，我們在低週期業務的 resi 方面存在一些弱點。展望未來，我們將繼續相信我們的大多數市場都將實現良好成長。我想重申的是，我們擁有非常強大的積壓訂單，而且隨著我們工廠的產能運作得更好，我們現有的工廠和擴建的工廠，我們對中期 11.5% 的前景充滿信心。

And the other thing I'd point out point out there's reason was we mentioned it earlier, is that historically we would we were living in an inflationary environment, we were getting more price, and we simply anniversaried a number of those price increases from prior users. And quite frankly, our volumes are actually, as we look forward, as Olivier mentioned in his opening commentary, contributing more to our growth and most of our growth going forward so a big difference is also the relative amount of price that we're experiencing in the business because we simply don't have as much inflation as we've had historically.

我想指出的另一件事是，我們之前提到過，從歷史上看，我們生活在通貨膨脹的環境中，我們得到的價格更高，我們只是對之前用戶的一些價格上漲進行了周年紀念。坦白說，正如奧利維爾在開場評論中提到的那樣，展望未來，我們的銷售實際上會對我們的成長做出更大的貢獻，而且是我們未來的大部分成長，因此，一個很大的區別也是我們在業務中經歷的相對價格量，因為我們根本沒有像歷史上那樣嚴重的通貨膨脹。

Appreciate the color, guys.

欣賞這顏色，夥計們。

David Raso, Evercore ISI.

大衛·拉索（David Raso），Evercore ISI。

Hi, I'll be quick. I know it's late, sorry. The amount of capacity being added, can you quantify to any degree across electrical? I've actually heard what percent capacity do we think is coming on across electricals, second half of '25 and then what the full year impact should be in '26?

嗨，我很快。我知道已經太晚了，抱歉。增加的容量數量，您能在電氣領域進行任何程度的量化嗎？我實際上已經聽說了我們認為電氣領域的產能百分比是多少，25 年下半年以及 26 年全年的影響應該是多少？

And then the dovetail off the comment sort of normalized now on pricing, this is more of a volume story. When I think of what you're describing the next couple years is on the electrical businesses, your willingness to add capacity and you're already hinting at the Upper A in your other businesses.

然後，評論的吻合程度現在在定價上已經正常化，這更像是一個數量故事。當我想到您所描述的未來幾年的電力業務時，您願意增加產能，並且您已經暗示了其他業務的上層 A。

Is there any reason to be thinking that you don't see this organic sales growth rate for, say, '25 as structurally something the company can do for multiple years?

是否有理由認為，從結構上來說，公司無法在 25 年內實現這種有機銷售成長率？

Yes, we have this question last quarter as well. Dave, I appreciate the question around capacity additions and you're right, we've not expressed it in terms of a percentage of capacity increase on the base of our total capacity. I think those numbers become meaningless when you look at in the context of our total manufacturing capacity and some 200 facilities or more facilities around the world.

是的，上個季度我們也有這個問題。戴夫，我很感謝你關於產能增加的問題，你是對的，我們並沒有用總產能基礎上的產能增加百分比來表達這一點。我認為，當你從我們的總製造能力以及全球約 200 個或更多設施的角度來看時，這些數字就變得毫無意義了。

So what we said is that where we have capacity constraints, we have made investments that are multiyear investments that more than provide for the capacity to cover our growth forecast in those industries. And so where we're tight in markets like products like data centers and products like transformers, we've made sizable commitments to investments that allow us to cover where we are today and a multiyear view of the capacity that we're going to need.

因此，我們所說的是，在產能受限的地方，我們進行了多年的投資，其產能足以滿足我們對這些產業的成長預測。因此，在資料中心和變壓器等產品等市場中，我們做出了相當大的投資承諾，這使我們能夠涵蓋目前的狀況，並對未來幾年所需的產能有一個清晰的認識。

And so the company, as we've committed to last time, we're in good shape. We will not be the bottleneck in the industry. We're making these capacity investments. We talked about $1.5 billion of incremental growth capacity that we're putting into the businesses, and that will cover our forecast and appropriate if markets tend to be a bit sharper than what we're forecasting.

正如我們上次承諾的那樣，公司狀況良好。我們不會成為業界的瓶頸。我們正在進行這些產能投資。我們談到了將向業務投入 15 億美元的增量成長能力，這將涵蓋我們的預測，如果市場走勢比我們預測的更為強勁，這將是合適的。

And just to complement those, as Craig explained really well, and the look forward that you're trying to imply we're going to talk about that in March at our Investor Day. We're going to give you the breakdown of the segments and how we see the world until 2030.

為了補充這些，正如 Craig 所解釋的那樣，並期待您試圖暗示我們將在三月份的投資者日討論這個問題。我們將為您細分各個部分，並向您介紹我們對 2030 年之前世界的看法。

Okay. I appreciate it. Thank you so much.

好的。我很感激。太感謝了。

Phil Buller, Berenberg.

菲爾·布勒，貝倫貝格。

Thank you for squeezing me in. There's obviously been some parts of the business which have been soft. It's not very soft for some time. So from what you're seeing on the ground, has there been any green shoots this quarter or market share gains, perhaps that you can talk to in European electrical, European machine OEMs, resi, or autos?

謝謝你把我擠進來。顯然，有些業務部分已經疲軟。有一段時間它不太柔軟。那麼從您實際看到的情況來看，本季是否出現了一些復甦跡像或市佔率有所成長？您可以談談歐洲電氣、歐洲機械原始設備製造商、住宅或汽車產業的情況？

I think Craig, you talked Andy's question on some of that, but perhaps more on the US side. Can you specifically talk to what you're seeing in Europe or non-US, please? And just as a follow-up, I appreciate this isn't a strategy told that it was discussed, the M&A was going to be focused on electrical and aero. So I guess I'm wondering on if the strategic importance of the automotive exposure is something that you're going to be looking to talk to at the Investor Day in March?Thanks.

我認為克雷格，你談到了安迪的部分問題，但可能更多的是從美國方面來說。您能具體談談您在歐洲或美國以外看到的情況嗎？作為後續行動，我很欣賞這不是一個被討論過的策略，併購將集中在電氣和航空領域。所以我想知道您是否會在三月的投資者日上談論汽車業務的戰略重要性？謝謝。

Okay. So maybe just on the on the green shoots question and specifically as it relates to Europe, you're right, that market has been it's been soft for some time. Most of the industrial data coming out of Europe and Germany specifically continues to be quite weak. Although having said that, as you saw in our own number and you see in our outlook in terms of our forecast, we do expect that market to be incrementally better in 2025 than it was into recovery in the machinery OEM market.

好的。因此，也許只是關於復甦萌芽的問題，特別是與歐洲有關的問題，你是對的，歐洲市場已經疲軟了一段時間。來自歐洲（尤其是德國）的大部分工業數據仍然相當疲軟。儘管如此，正如您在我們自己的數據和預測展望中所看到的，我們確實預計 2025 年市場將比機械 OEM 市場復甦時的情況更好。

We are seeing a little bit of recovery in some of the residential pieces of the European business, but still not the growth there. But so I think at this point, we'll have to wait and see. We remain cautious, specifically in Europe, given the macroeconomic environment there where we are forecasting growth. It's largely because they too are benefiting from data centers.

我們看到歐洲業務的一些住宅部分有所復甦，但仍未實現成長。但我認為，目前我們還必須拭目以待。我們保持謹慎，特別是在歐洲，因為我們預測那裡的宏觀經濟環境將會成長。這主要是因為他們也從資料中心中受益。

They too are benefiting from what's happening in the utility markets and they're seeing some of the same macro megatrends driving growth in your business that we're seeing in the US market and some of those are accelerating.

他們也從公用事業市場的動態中受益，他們看到一些與我們在美國市場看到的相同的宏觀大趨勢正在推動您的業務成長，其中一些趨勢正在加速。

Thank you.

謝謝。

About the vehicle, e-mobility in our Investor Day. That was the second part of your question. We're going to talk about it in March.

關於我們投資者日上的車輛和電動車。這是你問題的第二部分。我們將在三月討論這個問題。

Okay, great. Thanks very much, guys.

好的，太好了。非常感謝，大家。

Thanks, guys. We do appreciate your questions. And as always, our team will be available to address your follow-up questions and thanks for joining us and have a good day.

謝謝大家。我們非常感謝您的提問。像往常一樣，我們的團隊將隨時解答您的後續問題，感謝您的加入並祝您有美好的一天。

Thank you. This concludes the conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。