伊頓 (ETN) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Eaton third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的耐心等待，歡迎參加伊頓 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

（操作員說明）謹此提醒，今天的通話正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Yan Jin.

現在我想把會議交給主持人嚴進。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Good morning.

早安.

Thank you all for joining us for Eaton's third-quarter 2024 earnings call.

感謝大家參加伊頓 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

With me today are Craig Arnold, our Chairman and CEO; and Olivier Leonetti, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天與我在一起的有我們的董事長兼執行長克雷格‧阿諾德 (Craig Arnold)；奧利維爾‧萊昂內蒂 (Olivier Leonetti)，執行副總裁兼財務長。

Our agenda today includes the opening remarks by Craig, then he will turn it over to Olivier, who will highlight the company's performance in the third quarter.

我們今天的議程包括克雷格的開場白，然後他將把它交給奧利維爾，奧利維爾將重點介紹公司第三季度的業績。

As we have done in our past calls, we'll be taking questions (inaudible) Craig's closing commentary.

正如我們在過去的電話會議中所做的那樣，我們將接受克雷格的閉幕評論提問（聽不清楚）。

The press release and the presentation we'll go through today have been posted on our website.

我們今天要討論的新聞稿和簡報已發佈在我們的網站上。

This presentation, including adjusted earnings per share, adjusted free cash flow and other non-GAAP measures.

本簡報包括調整後每股盈餘、調整後自由現金流量和其他非公認會計準則指標。

The recount sale in the appendix.

附錄中的重新計票銷售。

A webcast of this call is accessible on our website and will be available for replay.

本次電話會議的網路直播可在我們的網站上觀看，並可重播。

I would like to remind you that our comments today will including statements related to the expected future results of the company and are therefore forward-looking statements.

我想提醒您，我們今天的評論將包括與公司預期未來業績相關的陳述，因此屬於前瞻性陳述。

Our actual results may differ materially from our forecasted projection due to a wide range of risks and uncertainties that are described in our earnings release and the presentation.

由於我們的收益發布和演示中描述的各種風險和不確定性，我們的實際結果可能與我們的預測有重大差異。

With that, I will turn it over to Craig.

這樣，我就把它交給克雷格。

Thanks, Jin.

謝謝，金。

We'll start on page 3, where we summarize the key highlights of another strong quarter.

我們將從第 3 頁開始，總結另一個強勁季度的主要亮點。

We generated adjusted EPS of $2.84 a share, an all-time record and up 15% from prior year.

我們的調整後每股收益為 2.84 美元，創歷史新高，比上年增長 15%。

We also delivered record segment margins of 24.3% and up 70 basis points from last year.

我們也實現了創紀錄的 24.3% 的分部利潤率，比去年提高了 70 個基點。

And we're raising our guidance for segment margins and adjusted EPS for the year.

我們正在提高今年的部門利潤率和調整後每股收益的指導。

We did experience a couple of extraordinary events in the quarter that impacted our revenue.

本季我們確實經歷了幾起影響我們收入的非同尋常的事件。

First, the why we publicized strike taking place in the aerospace industry and then Hurricane Helene, which impacted several of our electrical Americas factories at the end of the quarter.

首先，我們為什麼要公佈航空航天業發生的罷工，然後是颶風海倫，該颶風在本季度末影響了我們在美國的幾家電氣工廠。

While both of these events will have an impact on our revenue outlook for Q4, they are not impacting our demand and it's only timing.

雖然這兩個事件都會對我們第四季的收入前景產生影響，但它們不會影響我們的需求，而只是時間問題。

In fact, our markets continue to be strong.

事實上，我們的市場仍然強勁。

On a rolling 12-month basis, electrical orders were up 12%, with electrical Americas orders up 16% and aerospace orders increased by 6%.

在過去 12 個月的滾動基礎上，電氣訂單增長了 12%，其中電氣美洲訂單增長了 16%，航空航天訂單增長了 6%。

This led to another quarter of growing and record backlogs up 26% for electrical Americas, up 14% for aerospace, with strong book-to-bill ratios.

這導緻美洲電氣部門的積壓訂單又成長了一個季度，創紀錄地成長了 26%，航空航太領域的積壓訂單成長了 14%，訂單出貨比強勁。

On balance, we're pleased with our results and are well positioned for a record year of performance and expect to carry strong momentum into 2025.

總的來說，我們對我們的業績感到滿意，並為創紀錄的一年業績做好了充分準備，並期望在 2025 年保持強勁勢頭。

Turning to Page 4.

翻到第 4 頁。

We once again are sharing our overview of megatrends and how they're driving growth in our end markets.

我們再次分享我們對大趨勢的概述以及它們如何推動我們終端市場的成長。

I think the key message here is one of breadth, both in the number of megatrends and in a number of our end markets that are positively impacted, something we think is unique to Eaton and will allow us to grow at an accelerated rate for years to come.

我認為這裡的關鍵訊息是廣度，無論是在大趨勢的數量上，還是在我們受到積極影響的許多終端市場上，我們認為這是伊頓獨有的，將使我們能夠在未來幾年內加速增長，來。

Last quarter, we provided an end market update on our commercial and institutional segment, highlighting the strong growth outlook for institutional and infrastructure markets.

上季度，我們提供了商業和機構市場的終端市場最新情況，強調了機構和基礎設施市場強勁的成長前景。

Today, we intend to provide a forecast for residential markets and how energy transition is creating new growth opportunities in residential homes.

今天，我們打算對住宅市場進行預測，以及能源轉型如何為住宅創造新的成長機會。

And as we've done in recent earnings calls, we'll also provide an update on the growing number of mega projects announced during the quarter.

正如我們在最近的財報電話會議中所做的那樣，我們還將提供有關本季宣布的大型專案數量不斷增加的最新資訊。

So let's begin with that on slide 5 in the presentation.

讓我們從簡報中第 5 張投影片開始。

This chart shows a summary of mega projects that have been announced since January of 2021 in North America.

此圖表顯示了自 2021 年 1 月以來北美宣布的大型專案的摘要。

As a reminder, a mega project is a project with an announced value of $1 billion or more.

提醒一下，大型專案是指宣布價值為 10 億美元或以上的專案。

Through Q3, we're now at 504 projects with a cumulative value of $1.6 trillion.

截至第三季度，我們現有項目 504 個，累計價值 1.6 兆美元。

And the backlog now stands at $1.8 trillion, up 30% and from last year.

目前積壓訂單達 1.8 兆美元，比去年增長 30%。

I'd also point out the announcements are continuing to accelerate with Q3 up 48% versus Q2.

我還想指出的是，公告的發布速度持續加快，第三季比第二季成長了 48%。

Approximately 16% of these products have started and we expect a record number of starts in 2025.

其中約 16% 的產品已啟動，我們預計 2025 年啟動數量將創歷史新高。

Many of you have asked the questions about cancellations, which we continue to monitor as well.

你們中的許多人都詢問了有關取消的問題，我們也將繼續監控這些問題。

To date, cancellations have been modest, around 10% and well below historical levels.

迄今為止，取消預訂的比例不大，約 10%，遠低於歷史水準。

For projects that have started, we've won over $1.7 billion of orders and our win rate is almost 40%.

對於已啟動的項目，我們已贏得超過 17 億美元的訂單，中標率接近 40%。

Of note, we're in active negotiations on another $3 billion of orders, up 175% from last quarter.

值得注意的是，我們正在積極談判另外 30 億美元的訂單，比上季成長 175%。

While mega projects continue to go on a lot of attention, deservedly so, the Dodge Momentum Index, which tracks commercial and institutional projects that are less than $500 million are also at record levels of 22% in the quarter.

雖然大型項目繼續受到廣泛關注，這是理所當然的，但追蹤小於 5 億美元的商業和機構項目的道奇動量指數在本季度也達到了 22% 的創紀錄水平。

Taken together, we think they provide a strong validation of the megatrends and support our view on the long-term outlook of our end markets.

總的來說，我們認為它們有力地驗證了大趨勢，並支持我們對終端市場長期前景的看法。

As we prepare for the growth ahead, we're making investments in our manufacturing capacity naturally.

當我們為未來的成長做準備時，我們自然會對我們的製造能力進行投資。

And on Slide 6, we show an update of our incremental capacity investments, which now stand at $1.5 billion, up $500 million from our previous estimate.

在投影片 6 中，我們展示了增量產能投資的最新情況，目前已達到 15 億美元，比我們先前的估計增加了 5 億美元。

The increase reflects our increasing confidence in our outlook as well as increasing demand that we're now seeing in data center markets.

這一成長反映出我們對前景的信心不斷增強，以及我們現在在資料中心市場看到的需求不斷增加。

These multiyear investments with the largest addition coming in the second half of '25 and '26.

這些多年投資的最大增量出現在 25 年和 26 年下半年。

And the capacity investments cover several product families and importantly, can be used across most of the electrical end markets.

產能投資涵蓋多個產品系列，重要的是，可用於大多數電氣終端市場。

I'd also add that most of the additional capacity is what we consider right assembly and modular which allows us to be both flexible and efficient as we deploy capital.

我還想補充一點，大部分的額外產能是我們認為正確的組裝和模組化的，這使我們在部署資本時能夠靈活且有效率。

Overall, our expansion projects are on track with a number of sites starting to ramp up production.

總體而言，我們的擴建項目正在按計劃進行，許多工廠開始提高產量。

For example, we recently opened a 110,000 square meter facility in Wales, Mexico that produces motor controllers and switchboards.

例如，我們最近在墨西哥威爾斯開設了一家佔地 110,000 平方米的工廠，生產馬達控制器和配電盤。

And we also the new manufacturing facility in the Dominican Republic that will increase our supply of Bussman fuses.

我們還在多明尼加共和國建立了新的製造工廠，這將增加我們對 Bussman 保險絲的供應。

Next, on slide 7.

接下來，在投影片 7 上。

We're highlighting our residential markets, which include naturally, the electrical infrastructure for both new construction and renovation.

我們專注於我們的住宅市場，其中自然包括新建和翻新的電力基礎設施。

Residential markets represent 6% of Eaton total sales and 8% of electrical sales.

住宅市場佔伊頓總銷售額的 6% 和電氣銷售額的 8%。

And the key message here is that these secular trends that we've been talking about that are impacting our industrial and commercial markets are also impacting homes.

這裡的關鍵訊息是，我們一直在談論的這些長期趨勢正在影響我們的工業和商業市場，也正在影響家庭。

As a result, the electrical content in homes continues to grow.

因此，家庭中的用電內容持續成長。

The growth in solar, electric vehicles, energy storage and the electrification of heating and cooking are fundamentally changing in the requirements in home.

太陽能、電動車、能源儲存以及暖氣和烹飪電氣化的發展正在從根本上改變家庭的需求。

And new safety codes and standards are also continuing to drive the need for higher electrical content.

新的安全規範和標準也持續推動對更高電氣含量的需求。

And as you know, the current IRA tax incentives for electrical panel upgrades are designed to support this growing need for more electrical power.

如您所知，目前 IRA 針對配電板升級的稅收優惠旨在支援對更多電力不斷增長的需求。

No doubt, residential markets have been feeling the impact of higher interest rates over the last couple of years.

毫無疑問，過去幾年住宅市場一直受到利率上升的影響。

With markets now feeling like they've reached a bottom, the housing shortage remains, and we should see positive growth from this point forward.

由於市場現在感覺已經觸底，住房短缺仍然存在，從現在開始我們應該會看到積極的成長。

Estimated at a 6% CAGR over the next four years from what's been a drag on growth over the last 24 months should turn positive now.

預計未來四年複合年增長率為 6%，過去 24 個月的成長拖累現在應該會轉正。

With the -- and within the residential market, Eaton is especially well positioned.

在住宅市場中，伊頓處於特別有利的地位。

As homes become more electrified, to generate and sometimes sell electrical power, become bigger consumer with their electricity, they also need to become smarter.

隨著家庭變得更加電氣化，為了生產和有時出售電力，成為更大的電力消費者，他們也需要變得更聰明。

We address these changes in our everything as a grid, including homes slide, which we show on Slide 8.

我們以網格的形式解決所有事物中的這些變化，包括我們在投影片 8 中展示的家庭幻燈片。

For more than a century, power has flowed in one direction from central power plants into homes.

一個多世紀以來，電力一直從中央發電廠單向流動到家庭。

Today, there's a new reality, thanks to the addition of solar power, electric vehicles, energy storage, all on the top of the need to run a more electrified home.

如今，由於太陽能、電動車、儲能的增加，出現了一個新的現實，所有這些都滿足了運作更電氣化的家庭的需要。

In simple terms, homes can now act as energy hubs.

簡而言之，家庭現在可以充當能源中心。

Producing their own power, managing their electrical loads and selling power back to their local utility, all of which requires more sophisticated electrical equipment.

自己生產電力、管理電力負載並將電力回售給當地公用事業公司，所有這些都需要更先進的電氣設備。

Eaton's home as a grid approach creates smart energy systems that allow homeowners to reduce costs, participate in demand response programs, improved resiliency, including islanding from the grid and to optimize the home by selecting which electrical loads they want to run during a power outage.

伊頓的家庭電網方法創建了智慧能源系統，使房主能夠降低成本、參與需求響應計劃、提高彈性，包括脫離電網以及透過選擇停電期間想要運行的電力負載來優化家庭。

So in addition to homes requiring more electrical power, Homes now require -- are now required to be more intelligent, to be connected and to be integrated into a home-as-a-grid solution.

因此，除了家庭需要更多電力之外，家庭現在還需要更加智慧、互聯並整合到家庭電網解決方案中。

Today's fully grid-ready homes have up to 5x the electrical content of a traditional home, a trend that will only increase over time and a tremendous opportunity for Eaton.

如今，完全連接電網的家庭的用電量是傳統家庭的 5 倍，這一趨勢只會隨著時間的推移而增加，這對伊頓來說是一個巨大的機會。

One example of how we're implementing our home as a good strategy can be seen in the recently announced collaboration with Tesla.

最近宣布與特斯拉的合作就是我們如何將住宅作為良好策略實施的一個例子。

As you know, Tesla is one of the biggest names in energy storage, and they needed a solution that would allow homeowners and installers to simplify the integration of energy storage, solar and load management in the home.

如您所知，特斯拉是能源儲存領域最知名的公司之一，他們需要一種解決方案，使房主和安裝人員能夠簡化家庭中能源儲存、太陽能和負載管理的整合。

This is especially important in the existing home market of more than 40 million homes with only 100-amp service.

這對於擁有超過 4000 萬戶僅提供 100 安培服務的家庭的現有家庭市場尤其重要。

Eaton's first to market in what we call able edge smart breakers provide homeowners with intelligent load management capabilities.

伊頓首款推向市場的邊緣智慧斷路器為房主提供智慧負載管理功能。

This technology allows homeowners to turn their standard loads into a smart load center without replacing the electrical panel.

該技術允許房主將其標準負載轉變為智慧負載中心，而無需更換配電板。

Together with our partners, our systems will manage your solar, your energy storage and your electrical loads.

我們的系統將與我們的合作夥伴一起管理您的太陽能、儲能和電力負載。

And it's simple to install.

而且安裝簡單。

It provides better functionality and at a much lower cost than other solutions.

與其他解決方案相比，它提供了更好的功能並且成本低得多。

In fact, we estimate our solution will be 3x to 5x lower cost.

事實上，我們估計我們的解決方案的成本將降低 3 到 5 倍。

Our AbleEdge smart breakers will be available in early 2025, and we look forward to growing our partnership with Tesla.

我們的 AbleEdge 智慧斷路器將於 2025 年初上市，我們期待加強與 Tesla 的合作關係。

Now I'll turn it over to Olivier to take us through the financial results for the quarter.

現在我將把它交給奧利維爾，讓我們了解本季的財務表現。

Thanks, Craig.

謝謝，克雷格。

I'll start by providing a summary of our Q3 results, in which we once again set many new records.

首先，我將總結第三季的業績，我們再次創造了許多新記錄。

We posted third quarter record sales of $6.3 billion, up 8% both in total and organically.

我們公佈的第三季銷售額達到創紀錄的 63 億美元，整體銷售額和有機銷售額均成長 8%。

However, revenue was negatively impacted by about $50 million from Hurricane Helene and labor strikes in the aerospace industry.

然而，颶風海倫和航空航太業的罷工對收入造成了約 5,000 萬美元的負面影響。

Without these impacts, organic growth would have been above our 8.5% guidance midpoint.

如果沒有這些影響，有機成長將高於我們 8.5% 的指導中點。

Operating profit grew 11% and segment margin expanded 70 basis points to 24.3%.

營業利益成長 11%，部門利潤率擴大 70 個基點至 24.3%。

Adjusted EPS of $2.84 increased by 15% over the prior year.

調整後每股收益為 2.84 美元，比上年增長 15%。

This is a quarterly record and above the high end of our guidance range.

這是季度記錄，高於我們指導範圍的上限。

This performance resulted in all-time record cash flow performance, including operating cash flow of $1.3 billion, up 15% on a year-over-year basis and free cash flow of $1.1 billion, up 23% versus prior year.

這項業績創造了創紀錄的現金流表現，其中營運現金流為 13 億美元，年增 15%，自由現金流為 11 億美元，較去年同期成長 23%。

On Slide 11, we summarize another very strong quarter for electrical Americas.

在投影片 11 中，我們總結了美洲電氣業另一個非常強勁的季度。

Before we go through the results, we want to acknowledge the significant impact that Hurricane Helene (inaudible) our employees and our communities.

在查看結果之前，我們要承認颶風海倫（聽不清楚）對我們的員工和社區造成的重大影響。

Electrical Americas employ more than 3,000 people in North and South Carolina in nine facilities and the safety of our team members is our top priority.

Electrical Americas 在北卡羅來納州和南卡羅來納州的 9 個工廠僱用了 3,000 多名員工，團隊成員的安全是我們的首要任務。

We have continued to provide support to our employees, their families and affected communities, including providing essentials and financial assistance.

我們繼續向員工、他們的家人和受影響的社區提供支持，包括提供必需品和經濟援助。

We are pleased to report that our facilities are back up and running to support all the strong consumer demand we are seeing in our markets.

我們很高興地報告，我們的設施已恢復正常運行，以支援我們在市場上看到的所有強勁消費者需求。

Despite these challenges, we set a new record for sales, operating profit and margins.

儘管面臨這些挑戰，我們仍創下了銷售額、營業利潤和利潤率的新紀錄。

Organic sales growth increased to 14%, reflecting strength in data center commercial and institutional and utility end markets.

有機銷售額成長至 14%，反映了資料中心商業、機構和公用事業終端市場的實力。

On two-year stack, organic growth was up 33%.

兩年來，有機成長成長了 33%。

Electrical Americas has generated double-digit growth organic growth for 11 consecutive quarters.

Electrical Americas 已連續 11 個季度實現兩位數的有機成長。

Operating margin of 13.1% was up 240 basis points versus prior year, benefiting from higher sales and increased operational efficiencies that were partially offset by higher costs to support growth initiatives.

營業利潤率為 13.1%，較上年增長 240 個基點，這得益於銷售額的增加和運營效率的提高，但支持增長計劃的成本上升部分抵消了這一影響。

On a rolling 12-month basis, orders reaccelerated to 16% from 11% last quarter, demonstrating continued tailwinds from the various megatrends.

在滾動 12 個月的基礎上，訂單從上個季度的 11% 重新加速至 16%，顯示各種大趨勢的持續推動。

We had particular strength in the data center market where activity is increasingly robust.

我們在資料中心市場擁有特別的優勢，而該市場的活動日益活躍。

For example, Dodge data shows US enhanced data center project starts are up 81% year-to-date nine months, surpassing 2023 levels in Q3 of 2024.

例如，Dodge 數據顯示，今年以來 9 個月內，美國增強型資料中心專案開工量成長了 81%，2024 年第三季超過了 2023 年的水準。

With data center construction backlog is now estimated to extend out about nine years based on 2023 build rates.

根據 2023 年的建設速度，目前資料中心建設積壓預計將延長約 9 年。

Also, our major project negotiation pipeline is up approximately 60% year-to-date through nine months.

此外，在今年迄今的 9 個月裡，我們主要的專案談判管道增加了約 60%。

Electrical Americas backlog increased 26% year-over-year with a book to bill with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.2 on a rolling 12-month basis.

Electrical America 的積壓訂單年增 26%，12 個月滾動式訂單出貨比為 1.2。

These results underscore the tailwinds from secular trends, strong execution and robust backlog that have allowed us to raise our guidance for the year, which we'll discuss later in the presentation.

這些結果強調了長期趨勢、強勁的執行力和強勁的積壓的推動力，使我們能夠提高今年的指導，我們將在稍後的演示中討論。

Next chart summarizes the results of our eletrical global segment.

下一張圖表總結了我們全球電氣部門的結果。

Total revenue growth was of 5% included organic growth of 4% and FX tailwind of 1%.

總收入成長 5%，其中包括 4% 的有機成長和 1% 的外匯推動。

We had strength in data center and utility markets partially offset by weakness in residential markets.

我們在資料中心和公用事業市場的強勢部分被住宅市場的疲軟所抵消。

Regionally, we saw continued strength in APAC with double-digit organic growth and mid-single-digit organic growth in EMEA.

從地區來看，我們看到亞太地區持續強勁，實現兩位數有機成長，歐洲、中東和非洲地區實現中個位數有機成長。

Operating margin of 18.7% was generally in line with our expectations for the quarter and down 310 basis points versus prior year, primarily driven by a real estate transaction in 2023.

營業利潤率為 18.7%，基本上符合我們對本季的預期，比前一年下降 310 個基點，這主要是受到 2023 年房地產交易的推動。

Orders were up 6% on a rolling 12-month basis with strength in data center utility and then OEM markets.

由於數據中心公用事業和 OEM 市場的強勁勢頭，訂單在 12 個月的滾動基礎上增長了 6%。

Backlog increased 19% over prior year and book-to-bill continues to remain strong.

積壓訂單比去年增加了 19%，訂單出貨量持續保持強勁。

Q3 was 11% on a rolling 12-month basis.

以 12 個月滾動計算，第三季為 11%。

Before moving to our Industrial businesses, I'd like to briefly recap the combined electrical segments.

在討論我們的工業業務之前，我想先簡單回顧一下合併後的電氣部門。

For Q3, we posted organic growth of 11% and segment margin of 26.2%, which was up 70 basis points over prior year.

第三季度，我們的有機成長為 11%，部門利潤率為 26.2%，比去年同期成長 70 個基點。

On a rolling 12-month basis, orders were up 12% and book-to-bill ratios for our electrical sector remains strong at 1.1. We remain confident in our positioning for continued growth with strong margins in our overall electrical business.

在 12 個月的滾動基礎上，訂單增長了 12%，我們電力行業的訂單出貨比仍然保持在 1.1 的強勁水平。我們對整體電力業務的持續成長和強勁利潤充滿信心。

Page 13 highlights our aerospace segment.

第 13 頁重點介紹了我們的航空航太領域。

We posted Q3 record sales and all-time record operating profit.

我們第三季的銷售額和營運利潤創下歷史新高。

Total growth was 9%, including organic growth of 8% for the quarter driven by strength in commercial OEM, commercial aftermarket and defense aftermarket.

總成長率為 9%，其中在商業 OEM、商業售後市場和國防售後​​市場實力的推動下，本季有機成長 8%。

Operating margin was strong at 24.4%, up 30 basis points year over year and also up basis points sequentially, which was driven by higher sales and mix.

營業利潤率強勁，達 24.4%，年增 30 個基點，環比也有所上升，這得益於更高的銷售額和產品組合。

On a rolling 12-month basis, orders increased 6% and driven by strength in commercial OEM, commercial aftermarket and defense aftermarket.

在連續 12 個月的基礎上，在商業 OEM、商業售後市場和國防售後​​市場實力的推動下，訂單增加了 6%。

Year-over-year backlog increased 14% and was up 4% sequentially.

積壓訂單較去年同期增加 14%，較上季增加 4%。

On a rolling 12-month basis, our book-to-bill for our aerospace segment remains strong at 1.1. And we are pleased with $2.3 billion life of program wins so far this year.

在連續 12 個月的基礎上，我們航空航太領域的訂單出貨比仍維持在 1.1 的強勁水準。今年迄今為止，我們贏得了 23 億美元的專案壽命，對此我們感到很高興。

Moving to our vehicle segment on Page 14.

轉到第 14 頁的車輛部分。

In the quarter, total revenue was down 7%, including a 6% organic decline, primarily driven by weakness in the light vehicle market and one point of unfavorable effects.

本季總營收下降 7%，其中有機下降 6%，這主要是由於輕型汽車市場疲軟和一點不利影響所致。

Operating margin came up at 19.4%, 200 basis points above prior year, driven by improved operating efficiencies.

在營運效率提高的推動下，營運利潤率達到 19.4%，比上年同期成長 200 個基點。

We have made progress here to increase margins which this quarter exceeded our midterm target of 19%.

我們在提高利潤率方面取得了進展，本季超出了我們 19% 的中期目標。

And we are pleased to have won $75 million in mature year sales in Q3 across our commercial and passenger vehicle portfolio.

我們很高興在第三季我們的商用車和乘用車產品組合贏得了 7500 萬美元的成熟年銷售額。

On Page 15, we show results for our e-mobility business.

在第 15 頁，我們展示了我們的電動車業務的結果。

Sales were up 2%, including organic growth of 1% from slower OEM new product launches and weakness consumer demand.

銷售額成長 2%，其中包括 OEM 新產品發布放緩和消費者需求疲軟帶來的 1% 有機成長。

Operating loss was $7 million, and as we continue to incur launch costs related to new programs.

營運損失為 700 萬美元，而且我們繼續承擔與新項目相關的啟動成本。

Moving to page 16, we show our electrical and aerospace backlog updated through Q3.

前往第 16 頁，我們顯示了截至第三季更新的電氣和航空積壓訂單。

We continue to build backlog with electrical stepping up to $11.8 billion and aerospace reaching $3.7 billion for a total backlog of $15.5 billion versus prior year our backlogs have grown by 25% in electrical and 14% in aerospace.

我們繼續積壓訂單，其中電氣訂單達到118 億美元，航空航天訂單達到37 億美元，與去年相比，我們的訂單積壓總額達到155 億美元，電氣訂單增長了25%，航空航天訂單增長了14% 。

Electrical backlog benefited from acceleration in order intake from tailwinds of the secular trends, including hyperscale orders within the data center end market.

電力積壓受惠於長期趨勢推動下訂單量的加速成長，包括資料中心終端市場的超大規模訂單。

As noted earlier, book-to-bill ratios from electrical and aerospace are 1.1 and 1.1, respectively.

如前所述，電氣和航空航太的訂單出貨比分別為 1.1 和 1.1。

The continued growth in our backlog underscores our confidence in 2024 and beyond.

我們積壓訂單的持續成長凸顯了我們對 2024 年及以後的信心。

Now I will turn it back to Craig for financial guidance updates and our initial thoughts on 2025.

現在我將把它轉回 Craig，以獲取最新的財務指導和我們對 2025 年的初步想法。

Thanks, Olivier.

謝謝，奧利維爾。

Turning to page 17, we summarize our fiscal year organic growth and operating margin guidance with less than a quarter ago, we've made a number of adjustments to provide our best forecast on how we expect to close the year.

翻到第 17 頁，我們總結了我們的財年有機成長和營業利潤率指導，不到一個季度前，我們進行了一些調整，以提供我們對今年結束方式的最佳預測。

Overall, we continue to expect our 2024 organic growth to be between 8% and 9%.

總體而言，我們繼續預計 2024 年有機成長將在 8% 至 9% 之間。

However, with the continuing aerospace industry labor strikes and the slowdown in vehicle markets, we now expect our revenue growth to be on the low end of our range.

然而，隨著航空航太業罷工的持續和汽車市場的放緩，我們現在預計我們的收入成長將處於區間的低端。

We're raising our organic growth guidance in electrical Americas by 100 basis points to 13% to 14% from 11.5% to 13.5%.

我們將美洲電氣部門的有機成長指導提高了 100 個基點，從 11.5% 到 13.5% 提高到 13% 到 14%。

We're lowering the range of our aerospace business by 150 basis points due to the labor strike.

由於工人罷工，我們將航空航太業務範圍下調了 150 個基點。

We're also lowering our vehicle business to -- from down 3% to 5% to down to -- from flat to down 4% and an e-mobility to 5% to 7% growth from 17% to 23% growth given the widely reported industry weakness and outlook.

我們也將汽車業務從下降 3% 降至 5%，從持平降至下降 4%，並將電動車業務成長率從 17% 降至 23%，降至 5% 至 7%。弱點和前景。

For segment margins, we're increasing the company's margin guidance range by 20 basis points to 23.7% at the midpoint of our guidance.

對於分部利潤率，我們將公司的利潤率指引範圍提高了 20 個基點，達到指引中點的 23.7%。

This is driven primarily by the outlook in our electrical Americas business, where we're increasing our margin outlook by 70 basis points at the midpoint to 29.6% and vehicle where we're increasing our margin outlook by 150 basis points at the midpoint to 18%.

這主要是由我們的電氣美洲業務前景推動的，我們將利潤率預期中位數提高了 70 個基點至 29.6%，而汽車業務中我們將利潤率預期中位數提高了 150 個基點至 18% %。

We're also lowering our margin outlook for electrical global, aerospace and e-mobility by 90, 50, and 150 basis points, respectively.

我們也將全球電氣、航空航太和電動車的利潤率預期分別下調 90、50 和 150 個基點。

In total, the company is well positioned to continue to deliver strong financial performance and to close out the year well.

總的來說，該公司處於有利位置，可以繼續實現強勁的財務業績並以良好的成績結束這一年。

On page 18, we risk our additional guidance metrics for 2024 and Q4.

在第 18 頁，我們對 2024 年和第四季的額外指導指標進行了風險評估。

For '24, our adjusted EPS is expected to be between $10.75 and $10.81 a share, the $107 midpoint represents 18% growth in adjusted EPS and $0.08 raise over our prior guide and is also a $0.63 increase versus our original guidance for the year.

對於24 年，我們調整後的每股收益預計在10.75 美元至10.81 美元之間，107 美元的中點代表調整後每股收益增長18%，比我們之前的指導增加0.08 美元，也比我們今年最初的指導增加0.63 美元。

For Q4, we expect organic growth to be between 6% and 7%, segment margins to be between 23.6% and 24%, and adjusted EPS in the range of $2.78 to $2.84 a share.

對於第四季度，我們預計有機成長將在 6% 至 7% 之間，部門利潤率將在 23.6% 至 24% 之間，調整後每股收益將在 2.78 美元至 2.84 美元之間。

We do expect Hurricane line and the labor strike and aerospace industry to have an impact on our Q4 revenue and it's embedded in our guidance already.

我們確實預計颶風線、工人罷工和航空航天業將對我們第四季度的收入產生影響，並且它已經納入我們的指導中。

As I noted, while we have reaffirmed the full year organic growth range of 8% to 9%, based upon the impact from Hurricane line and labor strikes in aerospace, we expect to be at the low end of the range.

正如我所指出的，雖然我們重申全年有機增長範圍為 8% 至 9%，但基於颶風線和航空航天業罷工的影響，我們預計將處於該範圍的低端。

The impact from the Hurricane Helene is behind us and all of our sites are now up and running.

海倫颶風的影響已經過去，我們所有的站點現在都已恢復正常運作。

The aerospace industry strike is still ongoing, and while they could have an impact on our revenues based upon what's in our outlook, we don't expect an impact in our EPS.

航空航太業的罷工仍在繼續，雖然根據我們的前景，它們可能會對我們的收入產生影響，但我們預計不會對我們的每股盈餘產生影響。

If we can shift your attention to 2025, on page 19, we provide our initial view on end market growth expectations for next year.

如果我們可以將您的注意力轉移到 2025 年，第 19 頁，我們將提供對明年終端市場成長預期的初步看法。

As you can see here, we anticipate attractive growth in nearly all of our markets.

正如您在這裡所看到的，我們預計幾乎所有市場都會出現有吸引力的成長。

We're expecting double-digit growth in data centers in distributed IT, commercial aerospace and electric vehicles, solid growth in utility and modest growth across most of our other end markets.

我們預計分散式 IT、商業航空航太和電動車領域的資料中心將達到兩位數成長，公用事業領域將穩健成長，而我們大多數其他終端市場將出現適度成長。

Commercial vehicle is the only market that's projected to decline.

商用車是唯一預計會下降的市場。

So overall, 2025 should be another year of significant growth with more than 90% of our end markets seeing positive growth.

因此整體而言，2025 年應該是另一個顯著成長的一年，我們 90% 以上的終端市場都實現了正成長。

And as you know, our own growth outlook is supported by a strong order book, record backlogs and secular trends that continue to be favorable.

如您所知，我們自己的成長前景得到了強勁的訂單、創紀錄的積壓訂單和持續有利的長期趨勢的支持。

We will provide our revenue forecast in February but we do expect to grow faster than our end markets.

我們將在二月提供收入預測，但我們確實預期成長速度將快於終端市場。

The company is well positioned to deliver differentiated growth in 2025 and we think beyond.

該公司已做好準備，能夠在 2025 年實現差異化成長，並且我們的想法會更遠。

While we'll provide more details in February, we did want to provide some initial assumptions for our 2025 guidance.

雖然我們將在 2 月份提供更多詳細信息，但我們確實想為 2025 年指導提供一些初步假設。

Based upon the last chart, we expect our end markets in total to grow between $0.06 and $0.08 and for our incremental margins to be between 30% and 35%.

根據上一張圖表，我們預計終端市場總額將成長 0.06 美元至 0.08 美元，增量利潤率將在 30% 至 35% 之間。

Due to high interest expense and lower pension income, we anticipate roughly a $0.20 headwind on below the cross -- below the line items and a tax rate of approximately 18%.

由於高額利息支出和較低的退休金收入，我們預計交叉線以下的阻力約為 0.20 美元——低於細目項目，稅率約為 18%。

Our multiyear restructuring program costs are expected to be approximately $50 million, with $75 million of savings.

我們的多年重組計劃成本預計約為 5000 萬美元，其中節省 7500 萬美元。

And we expect capital spending to be roughly between $900 million and $1 billion.

我們預計資本支出大約在 9 億至 10 億美元之間。

Lastly, we continue to repurchase shares, and we're estimating the number to be approximately $2 billion.

最後，我們繼續回購股票，我們估計回購金額約為 20 億美元。

While we're still in the early phases of our planning, we also expect another strong year of earnings growth.

雖然我們仍處於規劃的早期階段，但我們也預計今年將迎來另一個強勁的獲利成長。

So let me close on page 21.

讓我在第 21 頁結束。

Once again, the trends driving growth in our end market continue to play out as expected and even better in our electrical Americas business, driven by data center markets and the reindustrialization trend that we're seeing across multiple industries.

在資料中心市場和我們在多個行業中看到的再工業化趨勢的推動下，推動我們終端市場成長的趨勢繼續按預期發揮作用，甚至在我們的美洲電氣業務中表現得更好。

We also delivered a strong quarter of financial results and continue to see outstanding execution on our key initiatives across the company.

我們也交付了強勁的季度財務業績，並繼續看到整個公司關鍵舉措的出色執行。

As a result, we've raised our guidance for segment margins by 20 basis points and our EPS by $0.08 at the midpoint.

因此，我們將部門利潤率指引上調了 20 個基點，將每股收益中位數上調了 0.08 美元。

And in the quarter, we're especially pleased to see the strength in our negotiations our orders and the growth in our backlog, all of which are at record levels, validating our medium- and long-term growth outlook.

在本季度，我們特別高興地看到我們的談判、訂單和積壓訂單的成長勢頭，所有這些都達到了創紀錄的水平，驗證了我們的中長期成長前景。

So we leave the quarter with a high level of confidence when we say Eaton will deliver higher growth, higher margins and consistent earnings growth and improving free cash flow for years to come.

因此，當我們表示伊頓將在未來幾年實現更高的成長、更高的利潤率和持續的獲利成長以及改善自由現金流時，我們對本季充滿信心。

And with that, I will open things up for questions that you may have.

接下來，我將針對您可能提出的問題進行解答。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Craig.

謝謝，克雷格。

(Event Instructions) Thanks everyone for your cooperation.

（活動須知）感謝大家的配合。

With that, I'll turn it over to the operator to give you guys the instructions.

這樣，我會將其轉交給操作員，以向你們提供指示。

(Operator Instructions) Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

（操作員指示）Andrew Obin，美國銀行。

Yes.

是的。

So it wouldn't be an Eaton call without a data center question.

因此，如果沒有資料中心問題，就不會是伊頓的電話。

So maybe if you could give us more detail on how did your data center business perform on organic growth orders and negotiations pipeline in the third quarter?

那麼，您是否可以向我們提供更多有關您的資料中心業務在第三季有機成長訂單和談判管道方面的表現的更多詳細資訊？

No, Andrew, we appreciate the question and as has been widely reported, the data center market just continues to perform much better than even we imagined.

不，安德魯，我們很欣賞這個問題，正如廣泛報導的那樣，資料中心市場的表現仍然比我們想像的要好得多。

In the quarter itself, our data center sales were up 35%, our net, by the way, up from 27% in the prior quarter.

在本季度，我們的資料中心銷售額成長了 35%，順便說一下，我們的淨銷售額比上一季的 27% 有所成長。

So the rate of growth is accelerating.

所以成長速度正在加快。

Our orders were up some 55% on a rolling 12-month basis, and negotiations are up 90%.

在過去 12 個月的滾動基礎上，我們的訂單增長了約 55%，談判增長了 90%。

And so as you can tell from this data, we just continue to build strong momentum in the data center market.

從這些數據中您可以看出，我們持續在資料中心市場建立強勁勢頭。

And as we've said, we think that market is going to be very strong for years to come.

正如我們所說，我們認為未來幾年市場將非常強勁。

Terrific.

了不起。

And just a follow-up question.

只是一個後續問題。

You have sort of highlighted the hurricane, and I understand that you do have presence in the Carolinas, that's why we're highlighting.

你已經強調了颶風，我知道你確實出現在卡羅來納州，這就是我們強調的原因。

But maybe if you could put a finer point on the impact in the third quarter and how much of an impact do you expect in the fourth quarter?

但也許您可以更詳細說明第三季的影響以及您預計第四季的影響有多大？

You did say that it's past you, but just is there any lingering impact in the fourth quarter that you're willing to quantify.

您確實說過這已經過去了，但您願意量化第四季度是否有任何揮之不去的影響。

No.

不。

I appreciate that question as well, Andrew.

我也很欣賞這個問題，安德魯。

And as I think most of the investors know we have a fairly sizable footprint in the Carolinas.

我認為大多數投資者都知道我們在卡羅來納州擁有相當大的足跡。

In fact, we have some 3,000 employees in multiple facilities that were actually in the path of the storm.

事實上，我們的多個設施中約有 3,000 名員工，這些設施實際上都位於風暴路徑上。

Pleased to report that our facilities are all back up and running.

很高興地報告，我們的設施已全部恢復正常運作。

All of our employees have been accounted for and safe.

我們所有的員工都已經安全。

And so while it certainly was a bit of a challenge at the end of the quarter and at the beginning of this quarter, it's all behind us now, and the business and the sites are actually performing quite well.

因此，雖然在本季末和本季初這確實是一個挑戰，但現在一切都已經過去了，業務和網站實際上表現得相當不錯。

So yes, without a doubt, what I'd tell you is that the Americas put up really strong results in Q3, they could have been stronger, but for the hurricane.

所以，是的，毫無疑問，我要告訴你的是，美洲在第三季取得了非常強勁的成績，如果沒有颶風，他們本來可以更強大。

And certainly, it's saving a little bit of growth off of the revenue for the electrical Americas business in the fourth quarter as well.

當然，這也為第四季美洲電氣業務的收入節省了一點成長。

But it just went into backlog.

但它只是進入積壓狀態。

This is not lost business.

這並不是失去生意。

This is simply timing.

這只是時機。

As you saw from our orders growth in the quarter and the backlog growth in the quarter, we will certainly realize that revenue.

正如您從本季度的訂單成長和本季的積壓訂單成長中看到的那樣，我們肯定會實現這一收入。

It's just timing.

這只是時機。

And if I can just for a minute here, recognize our team, our team just did an extraordinary job of supporting our employees and supporting the community providing shelter, food generators.

如果我能在這裡花一分鐘時間，請認可我們的團隊，我們的團隊在支持我們的員工以及支持社區提供住房和糧食生產方面做得非常出色。

Our team just rose to the occasion and we'd all be very proud of the way they represented our company in this moment of need and crisis for both our employees and the community.

我們的團隊剛挺身而出，在我們的員工和社區面臨危機和需求的時刻，我們都為他們代表我們公司的方式感到非常自豪。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

奈傑爾·科，沃爾夫研究中心。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

And Craig, thanks for the '25 early indications.

克雷格，感謝 25 年的早期跡象。

Just a question, I think, for maybe Olivier.

我想，這只是問奧利維爾的一個問題。

On the electrical Americas margins, Obviously, you tend to be a little bit considerate here, but I think 4Q does tick down a little bit from 3Q.

在美國的電氣利潤方面，顯然，你往往會考慮得更周到一點，但我認為第四季度確實比第三季度略有下降。

So seasonally, normally, we see a little bit higher.

因此，從季節性來看，通常情況下，我們會看到更高一點。

So just a question there.

所以只是一個問題。

But the broader question would be we've seen a huge amount of operating leverage in the Americas.

但更廣泛的問題是我們在美洲看到了巨大的營運槓桿。

We got some investment spending.

我們得到了一些投資支出。

How do we think about operating leverage and margin materials going forward?

我們如何看待未來的營運槓桿和利潤率材料？

Within that 30%, 35% sort of construct, do you think the Americas can be above that level going forward?

在 30%、35% 的構建中，您認為美洲未來可以高於這個水平嗎？

Thank you for your question, Nigel.

謝謝你的問題，奈傑爾。

We are very pleased with the performance of our electrical Americas business, both on the top line and the margin.

我們對美洲電氣業務的營收和利潤表現非常滿意。

To answer to your question directly, we do not believe we have reached our maximum potential.

直接回答您的問題，我們認為我們尚未發揮最大潛力。

We still believe we have room for improvement.

我們仍然相信我們還有改進的空間。

I would mention three levers: one, operating leverage on higher volume growth; two, improving of our manufacturing efficiencies in both our existing and new facilities; and finally, as you know, we have a restructuring program ongoing, and those programs should deliver improvement in margin for the America.

我想提到三個槓桿：一是銷售成長帶來的營運槓桿；第二，提高現有和新設施的製造效率；最後，如您所知，我們正在進行一項重組計劃，這些計劃應該會改善美國的利潤率。

Also, you haven't asked the question, but we believe we have margin opportunities.

另外，您還沒有問過這個問題，但我們相信我們有利潤機會。

We discussed that before in our electrical global business, but as well in our aerospace business, Nigel.

我們之前在我們的電氣全球業務中討論過這一點，但在我們的航空航天業務中也討論過這一點，奈傑爾。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

Any comments on 4Q would be helpful.

任何關於 4Q 的評論都會有幫助。

But my follow-up question is around the '25 framework.

但我的後續問題是圍繞著 '25 框架的。

You said 6% to 8% end market growth in '25.

你說 25 年終端市場成長 6% 到 8%。

I think you've got an ambition to outgrow your end markets by about two points.

我認為你們的雄心壯志是要超出終端市場約兩個百分點。

So do we think about kind of the start and frame or the next year, 6% to 8% or maybe a little bit higher than that?

那麼我們是否會考慮明年的開始和框架，6% 到 8%，或者可能比這個更高一點？

I appreciate that question.

我很欣賞這個問題。

And you're absolutely correct, we do have both an ambition and an expectation that our businesses will grow faster than their end markets.

您說得完全正確，我們確實有雄心壯志和期望，即我們的業務成長速度將超過其終端市場。

And as you can imagine, it's still very early, and we're still working through our planning for 2025.

正如您可以想像的那樣，現在還為時過早，我們仍在製定 2025 年的規劃。

And you can expect that we'll provide a framework for you more details as we get to the Q4 earnings call next year.

您可以期待我們在明年第四季的財報電話會議上為您提供更多詳細資訊的框架。

And obviously, (inaudible) will lay out a more wholesome mid- and long-term strategic framework for you at our investor meeting in Q1 next year.

顯然，（聽不清楚）我們將在明年第一季的投資者會議上為您制定更健全的中長期策略框架。

But to your question specifically, we should expect to outgrow end markets the exact magnitude of which we're not prepared to say at this point as we're still working through our internal plans.

但具體到你的問題，我們應該預期會超出終端市場的規模，但我們目前還不準備透露具體的規模，因為我們仍在製定內部計畫。

Jeffrey Sprague, Vertical Research Partners.

Jeffrey Sprague，垂直研究夥伴。

A lot going on today in some time.

今天一段時間發生了很多事情。

So I wonder Craig, if you could talk a little bit about capital deployment, it looks like with what you're saying on the share repo, you're quite comfortable just to continue to put up the organic growth and buy back stock.

所以我想知道克雷格，你是否可以談談資本部署，看起來你在股票回購上所說的，你很樂意繼續實現有機成長並回購股票。

But the nature of my question is right, liquid cooling is getting more and more attention on the data center side.

但我的問題的本質是正確的，液體冷卻在資料中心方面越來越受到關注。

Schneider making a sizable bet [verde] there.

施耐德在那裡下了相當大的賭注[verde]。

You've got some kind of alliance or kind of partnership so I know you're sort of on the periphery of this anyhow.

你們已經建立了某種聯盟或夥伴關係，所以我知道無論如何你們都處於這種關係的邊緣。

But maybe just speak to -- do you view that as an important part of your offering or where else you might have holes that might need to be filled from an M&A standpoint?

但也許只是談談——您是否認為這是您產品的重要組成部分，或者從併購的角度來看，您還有哪些地方可能需要填補？

I appreciate the question, Jeff.

我很欣賞這個問題，傑夫。

And obviously, to your point, data centers as a market is getting a lot of attention and cooling as a space is also one of our hot topics.

顯然，就您的觀點而言，資料中心作為一個市場正在受到廣泛關注，而冷卻作為一個空間也是我們的熱門話題之一。

I'd say to us, if you think about it just more broadly around growth, we have growth opportunities everywhere.

我想對我們說，如果你從更廣泛的角度考慮成長問題，我們到處都有成長機會。

We talked about these numbers in our own data center business growing 35% in the quarter, a 90% increase in negotiations.

我們談到這些數字時我們自己的資料中心業務在本季成長了 35%，談判中成長了 90%。

And so we have just tremendous opportunities to grow in data center and in other markets without looking at an adjacency like cooling I'm not saying that we would never consider doing something more deliberate there, but it is not required in any way for us to continue to post just significant growth and continue to win in the data center market.

因此，我們在資料中心和其他市場上都有巨大的發展機會，而無需考慮冷卻等鄰接問題。方式繼續實現顯著增長並繼續贏得數據中心市場。

And so what I would tell you today is that we're focusing on organic growth.

所以我今天要告訴你們的是，我們專注於有機成長。

We're focusing on essentially executing well against the opportunities in front of us.

我們的重點是在我們面前的機會中有效地執行。

Our deal pipeline in general, to the broader question around capital deployment is certainly good today.

總體而言，我們今天針對更廣泛的資本部署問題的交易管道肯定是好的。

And certainly, the pipeline is growing with opportunities, and those opportunities are coming from lots of different areas.

當然，管道正在隨著機會而成長，而這些機會來自許多不同的領域。

But certainly, data centers for us is a key market that we're focused on.

但可以肯定的是，資料中心對我們來說是我們關注的關鍵市場。

And then speaking of capital deployment, just on the CapEx side.

然後談到資本部署，就在資本支出方面。

Is the additional CapEx still oriented towards those kind of big pinch points of transformers and switch gear?

額外的資本支出是否仍面向變壓器和開關設備的此類大難題？

Or is this sort of broadening out into other parts of the portfolio that are just looking tight given kind of the growth that you see in front of you?

或者，這種擴張是否會擴展到投資組合的其他部分，而考慮到您眼前的成長，這些部分看起來似乎很緊張？

As I mentioned in my pound commentary, the incremental investment, we talked about $1 billion of incremental CapEx investment in the last earnings call, we've now taken that number up to $1.5 billion.

正如我在英鎊評論中提到的增量投資，我們在上次財報電話會議中談到了 10 億美元的增量資本支出投資，現在我們已將該數字提高到 15 億美元。

And a lot of that increment is, in fact, going into these kinds of markets, data centers, transformers some of these markets where we've just seen even faster growth than what we originally anticipated.

事實上，大部分的增量都進入了這類市場、資料中心、變壓器，其中一些市場的成長速度比我們最初預期還要快。

And quite frankly, we're having customers come to us asking us to make multiyear commitments and signing up for multiyear agreements to provide their requirements and their needs.

坦白說，我們有客戶來找我們，要求我們做出多年承諾並簽署多年協議，以滿足他們的要求和需求。

And so for us, it's just indicative of the underlying strength that we're seeing in our business and our willingness to invest.

因此，對我們來說，這只是表明我們在業務中看到的潛在實力以及我們的投資意願。

I mean this is a case where the risk today is much more on the side of underinvesting, not overinvesting.

我的意思是，在這種情況下，今天的風險更多的是投資不足，而不是過度投資。

Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

克里斯‧史奈德，摩根士丹利。

And appreciate all the color on the outlook.

並欣賞外觀上的所有顏色。

Maybe if I could ask on the mega projects.

也許我可以詢問大型專案。

I think it's pretty surprising to see that only 16% of the $1.6 trillion have started.

1.6 兆美元中只有 16% 已經啟動，我認為這是相當令人驚訝的。

I guess, does that similarly suggest that around maybe 85% or 84% of the orders related to these projects are still on the horizon.

我想，這是否同樣表明與這些項目相關的大約 85% 或 84% 的訂單仍在醞釀中。

And then I know you guys said that the cancellation of those projects is below historical levels.

然後我知道你們說這些項目的取消低於歷史水準。

But are they progressing more slowly in that -- the lag between announcement and order has extended versus maybe what we thought a couple of years ago?

但他們在這方面的進展是否更慢——與我們幾年前的想法相比，公告和命令之間的滯後已經延長？

Yes.

是的。

No, I think, Chris, you got it for the most part, right, in terms of the 16% of the projects have started, and that does mean 8% or so of the projects are still out into the future.

不，克里斯，我想你大部分都明白了，對吧，16% 的專案已經開始，這確實意味著 8% 左右的專案仍處於未來階段。

And so that's a pretty straightforward math.

這是一個非常簡單的數學計算。

And to the point around cancellations, yes, I mean they're running at roughly 10%, and there's always been cancellations in these big mega projects historically.

就取消而言，是的，我的意思是它們的運行率約為 10%，而且歷史上這些大型專案總是有取消的情況。

And we tried to provide some color on how that 10% relates to historical cancellations, and it's lower.

我們試圖提供一些說明，說明這 10% 與歷史取消航班的關係，但實際數字較低。

And so bigger projects, more projects and lower cancellation rates, which is why we're so bullish on the growth.

因此，更大的項目、更多的項目和更低的取消率，這就是我們如此看好成長的原因。

And in terms of the progression question specifically.

具體而言，就進展問題而言。

And as you see in the data, the progression for us continues to look really, really positive.

正如您在數據中看到的那樣，我們的進展看起來仍然非常非常積極。

The numbers continue to grow quite dramatically, up 175% in terms of the quarter-over-quarter.

該數字繼續大幅增長，環比增長 175%。

I will tell you that there's obviously always a question around the industry's capacity and the ability to digest all of these projects in the time frame that they'd like -- is there going to be enough labor.

我會告訴你，顯然始終存在一個問題，即該行業的能力以及在他們希望的時間範圍內消化所有這些項目的能力——是否會有足夠的勞動力。

You've heard the debate in data centers?

您聽過資料中心的爭論嗎？

Is there going to be enough power.

是否會有足夠的力量。

And so what you might end up with, quite frankly, is just an extended longer cycle in the process overall.

因此，坦白說，您最終可能會得到的只是整個過程中更長的周期。

But these projects are generally pretty diverse as well.

但這些項目通常也非常多元。

I mean, they're cutting through in the early days.

我的意思是，他們在早期就已經突破了。

It was a lot of projects that were EV and battery.

有很多電動車和電池項目。

What we've seen in the last pivot in the last quarter is a lot of commercial and institutional projects, a lot of data center projects, a lot of power projects.

我們在上個季度的最後一個樞紐看到的是許多商業和機構專案、很多資料中心專案、很多電力專案。

And so just a broad base of different projects that are being essentially announced and we're certainly hopeful that, that turns into starts next year, which we think are going to be up nicely and a long-term growth outlook.

因此，基本上正在宣布的不同項目的廣泛基礎，我們當然希望明年開始，我們認為這些項目將會很好地發展，並且具有長期成長前景。

I appreciate that.

我很欣賞這一點。

And then maybe transitioning over to data center.

然後可能會轉移到資料中心。

Could you maybe just talk a little bit about Eaton's relationships with the big hyperscalers?

能否簡單談談伊頓與大型超大規模企業的關係？

And as those companies get better clarity on their forward CapEx plans on brings more capacity to market, does that change the way that you can enter into commercial agreements with those customers?

隨著這些公司更清楚地了解其未來資本支出計劃，以將更多產能推向市場，這是否會改變您與這些客戶簽訂商業協議的方式？

Yes.

是的。

So to your point, first of all, our relationship with hyperscalers, we have a very strong relationship with all of the hyperscale data center customers.

因此，就您的觀點而言，首先，我們與超大規模企業的關係，我們與所有超大規模資料中心客戶都建立了非常牢固的關係。

And as we talked about before, clearly, one of our fastest-growing markets and even within the data center market, we're growing faster with hyperscalers in general more so than -- but growing with colo as well.

正如我們之前談到的，顯然，在我們成長最快的市場之一，甚至在資料中心市場內，我們與超大規模企業的成長速度總體上比與託管伺服器的成長速度更快。

We're growing in on-prem, but we're growing most quickly with the hyperscalers.

我們在本地成長，但我們在超大規模企業中成長最快。

And to the point around commercial agreements, everybody is challenged right now around capacity.

就商業協議而言，現在每個人都面臨著容量方面的挑戰。

And as a result of that, the nature of the discussions, the visibility around projects, the forward commitments have changed as the hyperscalers and others are working to ensure that they have capacity in place to deal with their outlook and their growth.

因此，隨著超大規模企業和其他公司正在努力確保他們有能力應對他們的前景和成長，討論的性質、專案的可見性、前瞻性承諾都發生了變化。

I mean, today, there is a little bit of a competing for capacity dynamic that's taking place in the marketplace, which has obviously led to better and more transparent, more committed commercial agreements with our customers.

我的意思是，今天，市場上正在發生一些產能競爭，這顯然導致與我們的客戶達成更好、更透明、更承諾的商業協議。

Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

史蒂夫圖薩，摩根大通。

So just on the utility side, I mean, a lot going on there with all these customers raising budgets.

我的意思是，就公用事業方面而言，所有這些客戶都在提高預算，並發生了很多事情。

But Hubbell's results were a little bit weak.

但哈貝爾的結果有點弱。

You guys actually are guiding just below double digit next year.

明年你們的指導價其實略低於兩位數。

I think in this initial market outlook, maybe you could just talk about what you're seeing in utility and what the slowing is there?

我認為在最初的市場展望中，也許您可以談論您在公用事業方面看到的情況以及放緩的原因是什麼？

And then lastly, how you kind of participate, just remind us how you participate in generation applications?

最後，您如何參與，請提醒我們您如何參與生成應用程式？

Yes.

是的。

The first thing I'd say is that in Q3, I mean our utility business continued to perform well.

我要說的第一件事是，在第三季度，我的意思是我們的公用事業業務繼續表現良好。

Our utilities revenues increased mid-teens in electrical Americas and low teens and electrical global.

我們的公用事業收入在美洲電力部門和全球電力部門中成長了十幾歲。

So I mean, obviously, when you think about different companies, they have different product portfolios, you have different customers, you have different mix.

所以我的意思是，顯然，當你考慮不同的公司時，他們有不同的產品組合，你有不同的客戶，你有不同的組合。

But our business is actually continuing to perform quite well, and we remain confident.

但我們的業務實際上繼續表現良好，我們仍然充滿信心。

We talked about our expectation that the utility market would grow at a growth rate of around 11% a year.

我們談到了我們對公用事業市場將以每年 11% 左右的成長率成長的預期。

Our customers continue to invest in CapEx to support this growth.

我們的客戶繼續投資資本支出以支持這種成長。

And so from where we sit, while there's always going to be temporary hiccups in periods of expansion and pause as they digest capacity.

因此，從我們的立場來看，雖然在擴張時期總會出現暫時的問題，並在消化產能時暫停。

There's nothing that we've seen that would suggest that the utility market, at least where we play, won't continue to be a very strong market for years to come.

我們沒有看到任何跡象表明公用事業市場（至少在我們所處的領域）在未來幾年不會繼續成為一個非常強勁的市場。

If you think about the unfortunate ramifications of these storms that we're seeing around the world, certainly two big ones in the US.

如果您考慮我們在世界各地看到的這些風暴的不幸後果，那麼美國肯定有兩場大風暴。

So they continue to spend money on resiliency to do grid hardening as the consumption and the demand for power continues to go up.

因此，隨著電力消耗和需求的持續上升，他們繼續在彈性上花錢來強化電網。

Obviously, that's backing up into utilities having to increased capacity.

顯然，這促使公用事業公司必須增加容量。

And by the way, data centers are a really big important market for utility customers.

順便說一句，資料中心對於公用事業客戶來說是一個非常重要的市場。

And then you have things like undergrounding that's taking place in places like the West Coast, where a lot of the utility infrastructure is being put underground, which is also creating growth opportunities for us.

然後，像西海岸這樣的地方正在發生諸如地下工程之類的事情，那裡的許多公用事業基礎設施都被置於地下，這也為我們創造了成長機會。

And so while once again, I know it's sometimes difficult to get a an exact read on these markets based upon perhaps what peers are doing, but our utility business is strong and doing well.

因此，我再次知道，有時很難根據同行的做法來準確了解這些市場，但我們的公用事業業務很強大且表現良好。

Okay.

好的。

And then just lastly on the backlog and order side.

最後是積壓訂單和訂單方面。

These orders are becoming obviously a bit more lumpy, like you had a huge first quarter, nice bounce back here from my math.

這些訂單顯然變得更加不穩定，就像第一季的業績強勁一樣，從我的數學計算中可以看到很好的反彈。

In the third quarter, your backlog went up really nicely.

在第三季度，你們的積壓工作成長得非常好。

It's up 25% year over year.

較去年同期成長 25%。

Is this kind of a sequentially like a stable level of orders?

這是一種連續的訂單水平嗎？

Do you see them continue to pick up a bit sequentially from here?

您是否看到它們繼續從這裡開始按順序增加一點？

And then why would the backlog where it is today, up 25% year-over-year, and you're bringing on capacity?

那麼為什麼現在的積壓情況會比去年同期增加 25%，而您卻要增加產能呢？

So you should be able to release much more of that backlog next year.

因此，明年您應該能夠釋放更多的積壓訂單。

Why wouldn't things actually accelerate on a revenue basis, at least volume-wise next year for the electrical business?

為什麼在收入方面，至少明年電力業務的銷售不會真正加速？

I'd say that, first of all, to your question around orders in general.

首先，我想說的是關於您關於訂單的一般問題。

And as we tried to characterize for the investors that we are living in a period of time now where orders have become a lot more lumpy than they've been historically.

正如我們試圖向投資者描述的那樣，我們現在生活在一個訂單比歷史上更混亂的時期。

And a lot of that is tied to mega projects.

其中很多都與大型專案有關。

And it's one of the reasons why we started to talk about mega projects on these calls to give the investors transparency in terms of what has been a fundamental shift in the size of a lot of the projects that we're seeing in our electrical business.

這也是我們開始在這些電話會議上討論大型專案的原因之一，目的是讓投資者了解我們在電力業務中看到的許多專案規模發生的根本性轉變。

And with these big projects, with these mega projects, that just creates lumpiness in orders, and that's one of the reasons why we went to a rolling 12 months to try to smooth out these patterns.

對於這些大型項目，這些大型項目，只會造成訂單混亂，這就是我們用滾動的 12 個月來嘗試平滑這些模式的原因之一。

And then once again, you try to dissect it anyway into a quarter, but we haven't exactly when successful in the smoothing.

然後，你再一次嘗試將其分割成四分之一，但我們還沒有完全成功地進行平滑。

But the message is that -- I mean, these orders will continue to be lumpy.

但傳達的訊息是——我的意思是，這些訂單將繼續不穩定。

As long as we're living in the world of these big mega projects, these orders will continue to be lumpy.

只要我們還生活在這些大型項目的世界中，這些訂單就會繼續不穩定。

And the other thing I'd say what we try to do is that, so we try to give you multiple views, right?

我想說的另一件事是，我們試圖做的是，所以我們試圖給你多種觀點，對吧？

It's not just orders.

這不僅僅是命令。

We try to say, hey, let me tell you about the front end of mega projects.

我們試著說，嘿，讓我告訴你一些大型專案的前端。

Let me tell you about what's going on with our negotiations.

讓我告訴你我們的談判進展。

We give you, obviously, revenue and we give you orders.

顯然，我們為您提供收入，並為您提供訂單。

And so that we try to give you a composite view of all the things that we look at that underlie the confidence in our view on what the world is going to look like going forward.

因此，我們試圖向您提供我們所關注的所有事物的綜合觀點，這些觀點是我們對世界未來發展的信心的基礎。

Now the question around should growth accelerate from this point forward.

現在的問題是從現在開始成長是否應該加速。

I'd say, on the volume side, as long as the capacity comes in line, yes, it's very possible that we could see volume acceleration.

我想說，在成交量方面，只要容量符合要求，是的，我們很有可能會看到成交量加速。

Now I would caveat that by saying that we've had a lot of price in the business historically over the last couple of years.

現在我要警告的是，過去幾年我們在該行業的歷史上有很多價格。

And as we've even transitioned this year, the relative contributions from volume versus price have changed quite significantly with most of the volume now, most of the growth now coming from volume.

今年我們已經進行了轉型，銷售與價格的相對貢獻已經發生了相當大的變化，現在大部分銷量，大部分成長都來自銷售。

And so you're not going to have the same price tailwind that you've had the growth in growth as we look forward.

因此，正如我們預期的那樣，您將不會獲得與增長相同的價格順風。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

朱利安米切爾，巴克萊銀行。

This is (inaudible) for Julian Mitchell.

這是朱利安米切爾的（聽不清楚）。

How much is the capacity constrained at present how are lead times trending in many (inaudible) coal product categories like switchgear, UPS, what is the base which more capacity can come on stream?

目前產能受到多少限制，許多（聽不清楚）煤炭產品類別（如開關設備、UPS）的交貨時間趨勢如何，更多產能投產的基礎是什麼？

You broke up the last part of which you said I didn't quite hear.

你把最後一部分打斷了，你說我沒聽清楚。

It broke up, but in terms of

分手了，但是就

--

--

(inaudible) sorry, go ahead.

（聽不清楚）抱歉，請繼續。

Your phone, we're having trouble with the connection, but I'll deal with the first part and then maybe you can come back to the second part of your question around how and where are we capacity constrained.

您的手機，我們在連接方面遇到了問題，但我將處理第一部分，然後也許您可以回到問題的第二部分，即我們的容量如何以及在哪裡受到限制。

We talk about this $1.5 billion of incremental investment that we're making in capacity.

我們談論的是我們在產能方面進行的 15 億美元增量投資。

Most of that is going into our electrical business to deal with those specific areas and markets where we are capacity constrained, be it in data center markets and things like transformers or electrical switchgear that really cuts across many of the different end markets that we serve.

其中大部分進入我們的電力業務，以應對我們容量有限的特定領域和市場，無論是資料中心市場，還是變壓器或電氣開關設備等真正跨越我們服務的許多不同終端市場的東西。

I talked about in some of my outbound commentary, the investments we've made in some of the circuit breakers as well as in things like Bussman fuses.

我在一些對外評論中談到了我們對一些斷路器以及布斯曼熔斷器等產品的投資。

And so where we've had where we have capacity constraints, so we look forward and we see the potential for capacity strength, we are proactively making those investments and trying to get out in front of it.

因此，我們在產能有限的地方，所以我們展望未來，看到產能實力的潛力，我們正在積極進行這些投資，並努力超越它。

Having said that, lead times today are still not where we'd like them to be ideally.

話雖如此，今天的交貨時間仍然不是我們希望的理想狀態。

Largely a function of the fact that our businesses continue to be stronger than what we forecasted.

這在很大程度上是因為我們的業務持續強於我們的預測。

No question even coming into this year, if you take a look at the revenue growth in our electrical Americas business versus our original guide.

毫無疑問，即使進入今年，如果你看看我們的電氣美洲業務的收入成長與我們最初的指南相比。

I mean those numbers are up quite significantly, both in revenue, orders, negotiations really across the board.

我的意思是，這些數字在收入、訂單和談判方面都大幅上升。

And so I would just tell you that we are today working as closely with customers as we ever had to make sure that we are getting out in front of the capacity requirements needed so that we don't end up being a bottleneck and a constraint for the industry.

因此，我只想告訴您，我們今天與客戶密切合作，以確保我們能夠滿足所需的容量要求，這樣我們就不會最終成為客戶的瓶頸和限制。

So second half of your question, maybe that address it or not.

所以你問題的後半部分，也許能解決這個問題，也可能沒有。

Yes, that addressed it.

是的，這解決了這個問題。

And on the '25 outlook, how are you thinking about electrical Americas versus global next year, there's a 1,000 basis point growth gap guided in '24.

在 25 年展望中，您如何看待明年的美洲電氣與全球電氣，24 年指導存在 1,000 個基點的成長差距。

Is it a very wide gap again next year that filled in?

明年是否會再次填補一個非常大的缺口？

Yes, I'd say it's too early for us to provide specific guidance on our various segments for 2025.

是的，我想說，現在就我們為 2025 年各個細分市場提供具體指導還為時過早。

But having said that, if you think about kind of these big mega trends that we've been talking to you about over the last couple of years, the Americas business has had a disproportionate benefit, a disproportionate number of them.

但話雖如此，如果你想想過去幾年我們一直在與你談論的這些大趨勢，美洲業務已經獲得了不成比例的利益，而且數量不成比例。

If you think about what's going on in data centers today, there's data center growth taking place everywhere, but 70% of these data center projects are basically coming in the US.

如果您考慮一下當今資料中心的情況，您會發現各地的資料中心都在成長，但其中 70% 的資料中心專案基本上都來自美國。

We talk about reindustrialization and the amount of money that's being put into increasing the US manufacturing capacity.

我們談論再工業化以及用於提高美國製造能力的資金數量。

A lot of that is being disproportionately benefiting the US.

其中很多都讓美國受益匪淺。

And so to the extent that these mega trends continue to be what they are, you'll probably continue to see a disproportionate growth coming from the Americas business.

因此，只要這些大趨勢繼續保持現狀，您可能會繼續看到美洲業務的不成比例的成長。

Having said that, a lot of what we do in Europe today tends to be more of the short cycle, and we are, in fact, seeing a bottoming in those markets.

話雖如此，我們今天在歐洲所做的很多事情往往更多的是短週期，事實上，我們看到這些市場正在觸底。

But a long way of saying, we're still working through the details and we'll give you a lot more color when it comes to early next year.

但總而言之，我們仍在研究細節，到明年初我們將為您提供更多的資訊。

Scott Davis, Melius Research.

斯科特·戴維斯，Melius 研究公司。

Craig, you threw out a number earlier about a 40% win rate.

克雷格，你早些時候拋出了一個大約 40% 勝率的數字。

And I just wanted to get a sense of context.

我只是想了解一下背景。

It seems like given the capacity constraints that where you guys want to, I would imagine you generally have pretty high odds of winning.

考慮到你們想要的容量限制，我想你們通常有很高的獲勝幾率。

And so does the 40% kind of reflect -- first of all, is there any historical context, is that higher?

那麼 40% 是否反映了——首先，是否有任何歷史背景，這個比例是否更高？

Is that normal?

這樣正常嗎？

But any color around that?

但周圍有什麼顏色嗎？

Am I reading it right that there's just some projects maybe that are just less profitable, and so you're going to be less aggressive bidding on them.

我沒看錯吧，只是有些項目的利潤可能較低，所以你對它們的競標不會那麼激進。

And so it's -- that number can be -- it's hard for us to know whether that's a good number or a bad number, but perhaps the behind the scenes is that number is a little bit better than historical?

所以，這個數字可能是——我們很難知道這是一個好數字還是一個壞數字，但也許幕後的數字比歷史數字好一點？

Yes.

是的。

I appreciate the question, Scott.

我很欣賞這個問題，斯科特。

And I would tell you today, the instructions that we've given to our team is we want to win every order.

今天我想告訴你們，我們給團隊的指示是我們希望贏得每一個訂單。

We don't want to see ground on any order or in any segment of the business.

我們不希望看到任何訂單或任何業務部門有任何進展。

But to your specific question around the win rate, yes, the 40% win rate would be higher than our underlying market share in electrical Americas.

但對於你關於獲勝率的具體問題，是的，40% 的獲勝率將高於我們在美洲電氣市場的基本市場份額。

And so I think you can read that to be that we're winning at a higher rate than we have historically.

所以我認為你可以理解為我們的獲勝率比歷史上更高。

And that's certainly a good thing and bodes well for the future.

這當然是好事，也是未來的好兆頭。

And then you see say you say, why?

然後你會說，為什麼？

I mean, largely, I would tell you it's because the bigger the project, the more complex the project, the more likely it is that we're going to win and that our solutions are going to be chosen over other alternatives.

我的意思是，很大程度上，我會告訴你，這是因為專案越大，專案越複雜，我們獲勝的可能性就越大，我們的解決方案將比其他替代方案被選擇。

And that's just been historically true for the business that the more mission-critical, the more complex the project, the -- it increases the rate of our winning.

對企業來說，歷史上確實如此，任務越關鍵、專案越複雜，我們的獲勝率就越高。

But if you think about the win rate across various segments, and we talk about this 40% of the context of mega projects these mega projects are broad.

但如果你考慮各個細分市場的勝率，我們談論的大型專案的背景是 40%，這些大型專案的範圍很廣。

They are across almost every one of our verticals with the exception, let's say, of residential.

它們幾乎遍及我們的每一個垂直領域，但住宅領域除外。

And I would say there -- I quite frankly not looked at the data, but my guess is that our win rate is not terribly different across the various segments of the market.

我想說的是——坦白說，我沒有查看數據，但我的猜測是，我們的勝率在市場的各個部分並沒有太大的不同。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then I know there's been a lot of questions about capacity adds.

然後我知道有很多關於容量增加的問題。

But can you just give us a little bit of a sense of the breakdown of new rooftops versus kind of adding lines that kind of thing.

但是你能否讓我們稍微了解一下新屋頂的分解與添加線路之類的事情。

So just a sense of what that capacity looks like in footprint?

那麼，只是了解一下該容量的佔地面積如何呢？

Yes.

是的。

And I would tell you -- I can always say it's a combination of both.

我會告訴你——我總是可以說這是兩者的結合。

And in many cases, it is, in fact, expanding in the context of an existing footprint where we have space available on some land where we can build out our capacity.

事實上，在許多情況下，它是在現有足跡的背景下擴張的，我們在一些土地上有可用空間，可以在那裡擴大我們的能力。

In some cases, it's adding lines to facilities.

在某些情況下，它會增加設施的生產線。

And in some cases, it is brand-new greenfield facilities.

在某些情況下，它是全新的新建設施。

And so I can only tell you that it's a mixture of all three of those and very much consistent with where we see our requirements and where we have particular limitations.

所以我只能告訴你，它是所有這三者的混合體，並且與我們看到的要求和我們有特定限制的地方非常一致。

And so I'm not sure if I'm addressing your specific question, but I can just tell you that it really does cut through all three of those areas.

因此，我不確定我是否正在解決您的具體問題，但我可以告訴您，它確實貫穿了所有這三個領域。

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

喬·里奇，高盛。

Hey guys, good morning.

嘿夥計們，早安。

Good morning.

早安.

So rather than like try to get you to say that you're going to do double-digit portfolio growth next year, even though that's what it seems like the framework is pointing to.

因此，不要試圖讓你說明年的投資組合將實現兩位數的成長，儘管框架看起來似乎是這樣的。

I'm just curious, Craig, from a pricing standpoint, I know you said that's moderated.

我只是好奇，克雷格，從定價的角度來看，我知道你說這是適度的。

Would you still expect to get pricing across the portfolio in 2025?

您是否仍期望在 2025 年獲得整個投資組合的定價？

Yes.

是的。

The short answer, Joe, is yes.

喬，簡短的回答是肯定的。

I mean, and if you think about our industry historically, our industry historically has gotten price, and I would say that we're probably back in a more historical pattern of getting price each year, but not during this period of time when we came -- if you go back to what happened over the last few years, you had the COVID-driven supply chain disruptions that drove a period of extraordinary inflation.

我的意思是，如果你從歷史角度思考我們的行業，我們的行業歷史上已經獲得了價格，我想說，我們可能會回到每年獲得價格的更歷史模式，但不是在我們來的這段時間－如果你回顧過去幾年發生的事情，你會發現新冠疫情導致的供應鏈中斷，導致了一段時期的非正常通貨膨脹。

And so we had to get out in front of that and can recover inflation, then you had the scarcity issue.

因此，我們必須走出困境並恢復通貨膨脹，然後就會出現稀缺問題。

And so as those issues continue to be in the rearview mirror, we're going to go back to more of a normal level of price realization for the business.

因此，隨著這些問題繼續出現在後視鏡中，我們將恢復到業務的正常價格實現水平。

But absolutely, we will still get price into 2025.

但絕對的是，我們仍然會在 2025 年獲得價格。

And by the way, price is embedded in those market numbers.

順便說一句，價格已包含在這些市場數據中。

We gave you the market assumptions for what we think the market is going to do in 2025, and we do incorporate price in that number as well.

我們為您提供了 2025 年市場趨勢的市場假設，並且我們也將價格納入該數字中。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then I'm just trying to understand the linkage between the project negotiation pipeline being up 60%.

然後我只是想了解專案談判進度上升 60% 之間的關聯。

And then your comments around 2025 starts expecting to hit a new high.

然後你的評論在 2025 年左右開始有望創下新高。

As you kind of think about the pipeline, does that include some of the projects that haven't even started?

當您思考管道時，這是否包括一些尚未啟動的專案？

Or are we talking about kind of like additives that the starts will be higher next year?

或者我們正在談論某種添加劑，明年的開工率會更高？

And what you're bidding on today is already what's kind of broken ground?

而你今天競拍的已經是破土動工了？

I'd say that quite -- it's tough to really answer that question because these projects vary dramatically in terms of the type of projects that they are and the time between an announcement of start and the completion.

我想說的是，很難真正回答這個問題，因為這些項目在專案類型以及宣布開始和完成之間的時間方面差異很大。

And what we said in prior calls is that from a completion standpoint, these projects are three to five years out.

我們在之前的電話會議中說過，從完成的角度來看，這些項目需要三到五年的時間。

And so what -- certainly, announcements become starts at some point, and it does vary widely depending upon the project itself.

那麼又怎樣——當然，公告在某個時候就會開始，而且根據專案本身的不同，它確實會有很大差異。

But I think the simple answer is, yes, a lot of these announcements today that are embedded in our numbers will, in fact, become starts in 2025.

但我認為簡單的答案是，是的，今天嵌入我們數據中的許多公告實際上將在 2025 年開始實施。

And in fact, I mean, if we take a look at it over a longer period of time, let's say, '23 to '27, the last data point we had, we were forecasting could start to be up some 23% over a period of beginning in 2023 going to 2027.

事實上，我的意思是，如果我們從更長的一段時間來看，比如說，23 到 27 年，我們擁有的最後一個數據點，我們預測可能會開始比 2019 年增長 23% 左右。從2023年開始到2027年。

We've not updated that number.

我們尚未更新該號碼。

But clearly, we're seeing an increase in construction starts, which is what you would naturally expect given the size of these announced projects.

但顯然，我們看到建築開工量增加，考慮到這些已宣布項目的規模，這是你自然會想到的。

Tim Thein, Raymond James.

提姆泰恩，雷蒙詹姆斯。

Great.

偉大的。

In the interest of time, maybe I'll switch two together, Craig, maybe one on just on aerospace, maybe kind of talk through whether it's orders or actual sales trends just kind of as you navigate the strike impact to the extent that continues the implications in terms of the mix for you between the more on the commercial side between OEM and aftermarket.

出於時間考慮，也許我會一起交換兩個，克雷格，也許一個只是關於航空航天，也許是關於訂單或實際銷售趨勢的討論，就像你在罷工影響的範圍內繼續進行一樣。售後市場之間更多的商業方面對您的組合的影響。

And then just, I guess, part B is just on the electrical side, as you talk about this project pipeline and the growth you're seeing there, some of the big sectors that you've highlighted, like obviously, data centers, but I in power and industrial also being pretty fairly equipment intensive.

然後，我想，B 部分只是在電氣方面，當你談論這個專案管道和你在那裡看到的成長時，你強調的一些大部門，例如資料中心，但是我在電力和工業領域的設備也相當密集。

So just how you think about that traditional rule of thumb in terms of kind of the electrical content per project?

那麼，您如何看待每個項目的電子內容類型方面的傳統經驗法則？

And if you're seeing any changes in that just given the complexion of the pipeline.

如果您看到任何變化，請考慮到管道的複雜性。

Yes, the first, maybe to the aerospace question specifically, and specifically as it relates to the strike impact.

是的，第一個，可能特別是航空航天問題，特別是因為它與襲擊影響有關。

At this point, what we have -- we made some assumptions actually around what we think is going to happen during the course of Q4.

在這一點上，我們實際上圍繞著我們認為第四季度將發生的情況做出了一些假設。

And that's why I mentioned in the commentary, we don't know when these strikes are going to be resolved.

這就是為什麼我在評論中提到，我們不知道這些罷工何時會得到解決。

We're hopeful that it happens sooner rather than later, but we don't know.

我們希望它能早點發生，但我們不知道。

And so that's why we said, we've made an assumption that's baked into our Q4 outlook.

這就是為什麼我們說，我們做出了一個假設，並將其納入我們的第四季度展望中。

If we're right, it's signed.

如果我們猜對了，就簽署了。

If we're wrong, it could have a slightly bigger impact on our revenue outlook.

如果我們錯了，可能會對我們的收入前景產生稍大的影響。

But not going to have an impact on our earnings.

但不會對我們的收入產生影響。

We'll deliver the earnings under either circumstances, but do feel like the industry will resolve these strikes at probably at some point over the course of Q4, but who knows at that disjunction.

無論哪種情況，我們都會提供收益，但確實感覺行業可能會在第四季度的某個時候解決這些罷工，但誰知道會發生這種情況。

In terms of the mix, you're right.

就混合而言，你是對的。

I mean at some point, I mean it has a positive impact on mix to the extent that the fleet of new aircraft are not being built and are having to run the existing fleet harder.

我的意思是，在某種程度上，它會對混合產生積極影響，以至於新飛機機隊不再建造，而必須更努力地運作現有機隊。

That doesn't happen right away.

這不會立即發生。

There tends to be a lag effect of that.

這往往會產生滯後效應。

But ultimately speaking, as long as consumers continue to get on planes and fly and they are, it means the fleet is operating.

但歸根結底，只要消費者繼續搭乘飛機並飛行，就意味著機隊仍在運作。

And in these older aircraft, we'll need additional service, additional aftermarket components.

在這些舊飛機中，我們需要額外的服務、額外的售後組件。

And as you know, aftermarket is very favorable for Eaton and for other companies as well.

如您所知，售後市場對伊頓和其他公司都非常有利。

And so we'll just have to wait and see how that plays out, certainly disappointing that we needed to reduce our numbers to account for it.

因此，我們只能等待，看看結果如何，當然令人失望的是，我們需要減少我們的人數來解決這個問題。

But once again, firmly believe that it's simply timing that these aircraft will be built.

但再次堅信，現在正是建造這些飛機的時機。

These aircraft are needed, and it just pushes some of the demand into 2025 and beyond based upon the current issues that are taking place in the industry.

這些飛機是需要的，而且根據行業當前發生的問題，它只是將部分需求推遲到 2025 年及以後。

To your question on projects and the project pipeline in electrical, if I get the gist of your question there, yes, it does matter a lot, the kind of project.

對於你關於電氣項目和項目管道的問題，如果我明白了你的問題的要點，是的，項目的類型確實很重要。

And we talk about the electrical intensity of a project.

我們討論一個專案的電力強度。

And the electrical intensity of certain types of projects is very different I mean if you take data centers, for example, when we take a look at the nonres construction market, data center, for example, accounts for about 2% of nonres construction market, only 2%.

某些類型的專案的電力強度是非常不同的，我的意思是，如果以資料中心為例，當我們看非再生能源建築市場時，例如資料中心約佔非再生能源建築市場的2 %，只有2%。

Yet it's in the range of, let's call it, 15% to 20% of our electrical business.

但它占我們電力業務的 15% 到 20%。

And that gives you a sense for the electrical intensity of certain kinds of projects versus others.

這可以讓您了解某些項目與其他項目的電力強度。

And so for us, the good news is that if you think about the kinds of projects that are being built today, if you think about on the one extreme, you have a commercial office where the electrical intensity is quite low.

因此，對我們來說，好消息是，如果你考慮一下當今正在建造的項目類型，如果你考慮一個極端，你會發現你擁有一間電力強度相當低的商業辦公室。

Data center is on the other stream, whether the electrical intensity is very high. utilities growing nicely where the electrical intensity is very high.

資料中心在另一條河流上，電力強度是否很高。在電力強度非常高的地方，公用事業發展良好。

So the type of project matters greatly.

因此，項目的類型非常重要。

And where we sit today and our outlook to that mix will continue to be favorable for our company.

我們今天所處的位置以及我們對這種組合的前景將繼續對我們公司有利。

Nicole DeBlase, Deutsche Bank.

妮可‧德布拉斯 (Nicole DeBlase)，德意志銀行。

Actually, good afternoon now.

事實上，現在下午好。

Thanks for fitting me in.

謝謝你讓我融入。

I guess I'll just ask one in the interest of time.

我想我只是為了節省時間而問一個。

Could you talk a little bit about what you're seeing, Craig, in China?

克雷格，你能談談你在中國看到的情況嗎？

We've heard a few companies kind of say the things got a bit worse there this quarter.

我們聽到一些公司表示本季情況變得更糟了。

And then I guess you kind of mentioned hope that short cycle in Europe could be bottoming.

然後我猜你提到了希望歐洲的短期週期能夠觸底。

So if you can maybe expand on are you seeing any evidence of recovery there today?

那麼，如果您可以擴展一下，您今天是否看到任何復甦的證據？

Yes.

是的。

Appreciate the question, Nicole.

感謝這個問題，妮可。

First, on China.

首先，關於中國。

Our China business has performed very well.

我們的中國業務表現非常好。

I mean if we look at our China business specifically in Q3, we actually saw very good growth.

我的意思是，如果我們特別關注第三季的中國業務，我們實際上看到了非常好的成長。

I think our growth in China was close to double digits in Q3.

我認為第三季我們在中國的成長接近兩位數。

And our outlook even going forward, is for pretty robust growth in our China business.

展望未來，我們的中國業務將實現相當強勁的成長。

I do think that, that's mostly a function of things that we have done specifically in the context of our business.

我確實認為，這主要是我們在業務背景下所做的具體事情的結果。

And as you know, we had a number of joint ventures that we signed in China that gave us just a lot of additional capability and capacity and our team in China, we think one of the best in the industry just winning.

如您所知，我們在中國簽署了許多合資企業，這給了我們很多額外的能力和能力，而我們在中國的團隊，我們認為是行業中最好的團隊之一。

So our China business is doing well, and our outlook for our China business continues to be strong.

因此，我們的中國業務表現良好，我們的中國業務前景持續強勁。

To the point around Europe specifically, and that's where, to your point, we are more exposed to short cycle, which means residential MOEM as is Europe in general.

具體到歐洲各地，就您而言，我們更容易受到短週期的影響，這意味著住宅 MOEM 和整個歐洲一樣。

And we do think we bottomed out, and we would think that as we look forward, those markets continue to grow from this point, and that's kind of embedded as well in our own outlook for Q4.

我們確實認為我們已經觸底，我們認為，隨著我們的展望，這些市場將從現在開始繼續成長，這也融入了我們對第四季的展望中。

We think that as interest rates perhaps start to moderate a bit.

我們認為利率可能會開始放緩。

That helps the resi market that helps some of the industrial markets as well.

這有助於稀土市場，也有助於一些工業市場。

But I'd say we can call today on the short-cycle stuff, it feels like we bumped along the bottom throughout the summer months, and we started to see a little bit of lift off in at least some of the markets, distributed IT, for example, in Q3 and the outlook for MOEM and residential is more positive as we look forward.

但我想說，我們今天可以專注於短週期的事情，感覺整個夏季我們都在觸底，而且我們開始看到至少在一些市場、分散式 IT 方面出現了一些增長。和住宅的前景更加樂觀。

Andy Kaplowitz, Citi.

安迪‧卡普洛維茨，花旗銀行。

Craig, can you give more color on TE's ability to offset ongoing vehicles market-related weakness.

克雷格，您能否詳細介紹一下 TE 抵消當前汽車市場相關疲軟的能力。

If you look in your vehicles, margin tractor, obviously, that 19.4% of declining growth was impressive.

如果你看看你的車輛，利潤拖拉機，顯然，19.4% 的下降成長率令人印象深刻。

Is that a reflection of strong positioning in the market given variable price versus cost?

這是否反映了考慮到變動價格與成本的市場定位？

And how long could that last at the vehicle end market stays weak?

而汽車端市場的疲軟狀態還能持續多久？

I appreciate the question.

我很欣賞這個問題。

We have worked hard in our vehicle business to, first of all, run our business better and drive better operational execution in our business.

我們在汽車業務上努力工作，首先是為了更好地經營我們的業務，推動我們業務更好的營運執行。

And as you know, we went through a period of time in our own vehicle business through supply chain disruptions and some other operational challenges inside of the business where we weren't executing as well as we know we can.

如您所知，我們自己的汽車業務經歷了一段時間，經歷了供應鏈中斷和業務內部的一些其他營運挑戰，我們的執行能力不盡如人意。

And our team has just done a great job of essentially improving the way we run our factories and our facilities and sorting out inefficiencies in the plant.

我們的團隊剛剛做了出色的工作，從根本上改善了我們工廠和設施的運作方式，並解決了工廠效率低下的問題。

We've also been very active in that business on really managing the portfolio.

我們在該業務中也非常積極地管理投資組合。

One of the things we've talked to the investors about is that we expect every one of our businesses to be a portfolio manager.

我們與投資者討論的一件事是，我們希望我們的每項業務都成為投資組合經理。

Every business has a head.

每個企業都有一個頭腦。

Every business has a tail.

每個企業都有尾巴。

Every business has a piece of it where you'd say, we don't have competitive advantage here.

每個企業都有自己的優勢，你可能會說，我們在這裡沒有競爭優勢。

We don't make great margins.

我們的利潤並不高。

It's not a growth piece of the business, and we got to have a plan to address and fix it.

這不是業務的成長部分，我們必須制定計劃來解決和修復它。

And so we have been very active in managing the portfolio in terms of the things that we control in our vehicle business as well.

因此，我們一直非常積極地管理我們在汽車業務中控制的產品組合。

And so the margins that we posted this quarter, I think a reflection of the fact that our team is executing extremely well, and we would expect them to continue to execute well as we move forward.

因此，我們本季公佈的利潤率，我認為反映了我們團隊執行得非常好的事實，我們希望他們在我們前進的過程中繼續表現良好。

And just a quick follow-up to that.

對此進行快速跟進。

In relation to your restructuring efforts, I think you gave us $75 million for 2025.

關於你們的重組工作，我認為你們在 2025 年提供了 7500 萬美元。

I would assume a sizable amount of that is in electrical Global, and that is going to start to help you close the gap with electrical Americas?

我認為其中很大一部分是在全球電氣領域，這將開始幫助您縮小與美洲電氣領域的差距？

Or how should we think about that?

或者說我們該如何思考這個問題？

.

。

Yes, Andy, without a doubt, I mean, if you think about we're restructuring, it's generally going to be in those businesses where the margins are not at the level that we have in the rest of the company and certainly global is a piece of that formula as well.

是的，安迪，毫無疑問，我的意思是，如果你考慮一下我們正在重組，那麼通常是在那些利潤率達不到我們公司其他部門水平的業務中，當然，全球性是一個也是該公式的一部分。

But the big challenge more than that, and we'll do the restructuring, the big thing in Europe is markets.

但更大的挑戰不止於此，我們將進行重組，歐洲最重要的是市場。

I mean markets, as you've seen from not just Eaton, but from most of our peers and other companies in the region is that Europe today is just not getting the growth that we're seeing in the U.S. and in other regions of the world in China.

我指的是市場，正如您不僅從伊頓公司，而且從我們的大多數同行和該地區其他公司看到的那樣，今天的歐洲並沒有獲得我們在美國和其他地區看到的增長。 。

So I think more than anything, we need a return to growth in Europe.

因此，我認為最重要的是，我們需要歐洲恢復成長。

Our incremental margins are quite high, on the back of a little bit of growth.

在一點點成長的支持下，我們的增量利潤率相當高。

And so that, for us, is the thing that we're focused on most is that we have to grow our business in Europe, and that's going to ultimately close the gap with some of the margins that we see in the Americas business.

因此，對我們來說，我們最關注的事情是我們必須發展我們在歐洲的業務，這將最終縮小與我們在美洲業務中看到的一些利潤的差距。

Joseph O'Dea, Wells Fargo.

約瑟夫‧奧戴，富國銀行。

I'll keep it to one.

我會把它保留為一。

Craig, I just want a little bit more color on the timing of all the capacity investments coming online.

克雷格，我只是想對所有產能投資上線的時間有更多的了解。

I'm sure it's staggered.

我確信它是錯綜複雜的。

But by the middle of next year, do you expect to have most of that online?

但到明年年中，您預計大部分內容都會在線上實現嗎？

And the reason for the question is when we look at the electrical backlog moving up again sequentially at $11.8 billion, trying to think through the degree to which Eaton is, in some instances, the bottleneck.

提出這個問題的原因是，當我們看到電力積壓訂單再次連續上升至 118 億美元時，試圖思考伊頓在某些情況下成為瓶頸的程度。

How quickly you can work that down with some pretty significant capacity additions coming online, even to the degree that can Americas grow faster next year as that capacity comes online?

透過增加一些相當大的產能，你能以多快的速度解決這個問題，甚至達到明年隨著這些產能的上線，美洲能夠更快成長的程度？

Yes.

是的。

I think to answer the second part of your question, we're absolutely counting on that capacity addition coming in next year to help our volume growth and most of the capacity will really come in over the next, let's say, two to three years.

我想回答你問題的第二部分，我們絕對指望明年增加產能來幫助我們的銷售成長，而且大部分產能將在未來（比如說，兩到三年）內真正投入使用。

Some of it's coming in now as we talked about in some of my commentary.

正如我們在我的一些評論中所討論的，其中一些現在正在出現。

But maybe just to address maybe the broader question around the backlog.

但也許只是為了解決圍繞積壓的更廣泛的問題。

Backlog is actually a good thing.

積壓其實是件好事。

Past-due backlog is a bad thing.

逾期積壓是件壞事。

And I would tell you that our past due backlog has come down.

我想告訴你，我們逾期積壓的訂單已經減少。

So we're doing a better job today of ensuring that we're delivering against our customers' expectation.

因此，我們今天做得更好，確保我們的交付符合客戶的期望。

But we have growing backlog largely because our markets are growing, and we're getting much better visibility into our customers' requirements.

但我們的積壓訂單不斷增加，很大程度上是因為我們的市場正在成長，我們對客戶的需求有了更好的了解。

And in many cases, we're getting longer lead time visibility on orders.

在許多情況下，我們的訂單交貨時間可見度更長。

And so I would say, in general, I would not think about a growing backlog as a problem in us being a bottleneck for the industry.

所以我想說，總的來說，我不會認為積壓不斷增加是我們這個行業的瓶頸。

A past due backlog would suggest for the industry.

逾期積壓對產業來說是一個暗示。

But I would tell you today that our lead times, in general, are very competitive with most of our peers.

但我今天要告訴您的是，總的來說，我們的交貨時間與大多數同行相比非常有競爭力。

Brett Linzey, Mizuho.

布雷特·林澤，瑞穗。

I appreciate the thoughts on '25.

我很欣賞'25'的想法。

I just wanted to follow up on the incremental margins.

我只是想跟進增量利潤。

So the 30% to 35% on organic, should we Think of this as the base level and then the restructuring savings would be on top of that?

那麼，30% 到 35% 的有機成本，我們是否應該將此視為基本水平，然後再將重組節省的費用放在基礎水平之上？

Or are there some offsets on some of this OpEx investment ramp relative to the restructuring savings?

或者，相對於重組節省，營運支出投資成長是否存在一些抵銷？

Just want to square those pieces.

只是想把這些碎片擺成正方形。

Yes.

是的。

No, we've given you a range of 30% to 35%, but I should really think about that as an all-in incremental and that not putting the restructuring on top of that.

不，我們給了你 30% 到 35% 的範圍，但我真的應該把它看作是一個全面的增量，而不是把重組放在上面。

What we've said historically, we said you ought to be thinking about 30% incrementals.

我們過去說過，您應該考慮 30% 的增量。

And so we've tried to account for restructuring benefits in the different midpoint of where we think the incrementals are going to be.

因此，我們試圖在我們認為增量的不同中點考慮重組效益。

But I'd say that you have a couple of forces obviously working for you and against you in terms of as we come through this ramp.

但我想說的是，當我們通過這個坡道時，顯然有一些力量對你有利，也對你不利。

On the one hand, obviously, we're getting volume leverage, and that's very helpful.

一方面，顯然我們正在獲得成交量槓桿，這非常有幫助。

But on the other hand, we're also starting up new factories and there's always inefficiencies with factory start-ups.

但另一方面，我們也在開設新工廠，但開設工廠總是效率低。

We're adding commercial resources to deal with the volume ramps that we're working through right now.

我們正在增加商業資源來應對我們目前正在經歷的銷售成長。

So I'd say, on balance, the take the midpoint or so of that 30% to 35% range.

所以我想說，總的來說，取 30% 到 35% 範圍的中點左右。

That's better than what we've used for planning purposes for most of our plans.

這比我們大多數計劃中用於規劃目的的要好。

It's certainly below what we delivered this year, for sure.

當然，這肯定低於我們今年交付的水平。

And this year, I would just point out that there was a lot of price in what we delivered in the form of incrementals this year as well as we didn't have the same level of start-ups and ramp-ups in both our factory and commercial activities.

今年，我只想指出，今年我們以增量形式交付的產品價格很高，而且我們的工廠沒有相同水準的啟動和產能提升和商業活動。

Thanks, guys.

謝謝，夥計們。

I think I really appreciate everybody's questions.

我想我真的很感激大家的提問。

As always, the IR team is available to have any follow-up questions as you guys enjoy the rest of your day.

像往常一樣，IR 團隊可以解答任何後續問題，讓您度過愉快的一天。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for participating.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。