伊頓 (ETN) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Eaton Fourth Quarter 2023 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) And as a reminder, your conference is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的耐心等待，並歡迎參加伊頓 2023 年第四季電話會議。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，您的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Yan Jin. Please go ahead.

現在我想把會議交給主持人嚴進。請繼續。

Good morning. Thank you all for joining us for Eaton's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. With me today are Craig Arnold, our Chairman and CEO; and Tom Okray, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Our agenda today includes operating remarks by Craig, then I will turn it over to Tom who will highlight the company's performance in the fourth quarter. As we have done on our past calls, we'll be taking questions at end of Craig's closing commentary.

早安.感謝大家參加伊頓 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有我們的董事長兼執行長克雷格‧阿諾德 (Craig Arnold)；執行副總裁兼財務長 Tom Okray。我們今天的議程包括克雷格的營運講話，然後我將把它交給湯姆，他將重點介紹公司第四季的業績。正如我們在過去的電話會議中所做的那樣，我們將在克雷格的閉幕評論結束時回答問題。

The press release and the presentation we'll go through today have been posted on our website. The presentation includes adjusted earnings per share, adjusted free cash flow and other non-GAAP measures, they are reconciled in the appendix. A webcast of this call is accessible on our website and will be available for replay.

我們今天要討論的新聞稿和簡報已發佈在我們的網站上。該簡報包括調整後每股收益、調整後自由現金流和其他非公認會計準則指標，這些指標在附錄中進行了調整。本次電話會議的網路直播可在我們的網站上觀看，並可重播。

I would like to remind you that our comments today will include statements related to the expected future results of the company and are therefore forward-looking statements. Our actual results may differ materially from our forecasted projections due to a wide range of risks and uncertainties that are described in our earnings release and the presentation.

我想提醒您，我們今天的評論將包括與公司預期未來業績相關的陳述，因此屬於前瞻性陳述。由於我們的收益發布和演示中描述的各種風險和不確定性，我們的實際結果可能與我們的預測有重大差異。

With that, I will turn it over to Craig.

這樣，我就把它交給克雷格。

Okay. Thanks, Yan. We're pleased to report our Q4 results and record performance for the year. Our team continued to deliver on our commitments, supported by strong markets and good execution.

好的。謝謝，嚴。我們很高興地報告我們第四季度的業績和今年創紀錄的業績。在強大的市場和良好的執行力的支持下，我們的團隊繼續履行我們的承諾。

So let me begin with some highlights of the quarter on Page 3. We generated adjusted EPS of $2.55 for the quarter and $9.12 for the year, both all-time records. Adjusted EPS was up 24% and full year was up 20%. And we continued to post strong margins. Q4 was 22.8%, up 200 basis points and above the high end of our guidance.

首先，讓我在第 3 頁上介紹本季的一些亮點。本季調整後每股收益為 2.55 美元，全年調整後每股收益為 9.12 美元，均創下歷史記錄。調整後每股收益成長 24%，全年成長 20%。我們持續保持強勁的利潤率。第四季為 22.8%，上漲 200 個基點，高於我們指引的上限。

We also delivered strong incremental margins, 42% in the quarter. And we continue to see strong market activity. On a rolling 12-month basis, book-to-bill for Electrical and Aerospace was 1.1 and our backlog increased by 15% for Electrical and 13% for Aerospace. And as you've read, we're initiating guidance for 2024 and expect another year of strong organic growth, double-digit increases in adjusted EPS and continued strength in cash flow. And I'll go through the full guidance details shortly.

我們也實現了強勁的利潤增量，本季達到 42%。我們繼續看到強勁的市場活動。以 12 個月滾動計算，電氣和航空航太領域的訂單出貨比為 1.1，電氣領域的積壓訂單增加了 15%，航空航太領域的積壓訂單增加了 13%。正如您所讀到的，我們正在啟動 2024 年的指導，並預計又一年將實現強勁的有機增長、調整後每股收益兩位數的增長以及現金流的持續強勁。我很快就會詳細介紹完整的指導細節。

Lastly, we're announcing a multiyear restructuring program that will eliminate fixed costs and improve our overall efficiency. The program will cost $375 million and deliver $325 million of mature year benefits. So the combination of market tailwinds, our internal growth initiatives and our continued focus on operating efficiency will allow us to deliver outstanding results for years to come.

最後，我們宣布一項多年重組計劃，該計劃將消除固定成本並提高我們的整體效率。該計劃將耗資 3.75 億美元，並提供 3.25 億美元的滿年福利。因此，市場順風、我們的內部成長計劃以及我們對營運效率的持續關注相結合，將使我們能夠在未來幾年取得出色的業績。

And speaking of market tailwinds, let's turn to Slide 4. In the last couple of quarters, we shared our framework while we think about key growth drivers for the company. The chart reflects the 6 secular growth trends that will positively impact our business today and for years to come. And we're stepping up our investment in R&D and capital to ensure that we're well positioned to capture this growth. We think Eaton is uniquely positioned in that most of our businesses are expected to see an acceleration in market-driven growth opportunities.

說到市場順風，讓我們轉向幻燈片 4。在過去的幾個季度中，我們分享了我們的框架，同時思考了公司的關鍵成長動力。這張圖表反映了 6 個長期成長趨勢，這些趨勢將對我們今天和未來幾年的業務產生積極影響。我們正在增加對研發和資本的投資，以確保我們有能力抓住這一成長。我們認為伊頓處於獨特的地位，因為我們的大多數業務預計將看到市場驅動的成長機會的加速。

In our prior 2 earnings calls, we provided a summary of progress on infrastructure spending, reindustrialization, utility and data center markets in Electrical and our Aerospace business. Today, we'll provide an update on the impact from reindustrialization and how it continues to drive a record number of mega projects in North America. We'll also provide you with a framework for how to think about the timing impact on mega projects from when a project is announced, to a negotiation, to an order and eventually, to a sale.

在我們之前的兩次財報電話會議中，我們總結了電氣和航空航太業務的基礎設施支出、再工業化、公用事業和資料中心市場的進展。今天，我們將提供有關再工業化影響的最新信息，以及它如何繼續推動北美大型項目數量創紀錄。我們還將為您提供一個框架，幫助您思考從專案宣佈到談判、下訂單直至最終銷售對大型專案的時間影響。

So let's take a look at Slide 5 in the presentation. We've shared this data previously, and it's a good proxy for the reindustrialization trend we're seeing. You'll recall, this summarizes the number of mega projects that we have announced since January of 2021. And a mega project, once again is a project with an announced value of $1 billion or more and there's been 333 of those through the end of last year, beginning in January 2021. Note that this is North America data, but we're seeing a similar trend in Europe, although the dollars are not as large.

讓我們看一下簡報中的投影片 5。我們之前分享過這些數據，它很好地代表了我們所看到的再工業化趨勢。您還記得，這總結了我們自 2021 年 1 月以來宣布的大型項目的數量。大型項目又是指宣布價值 10 億美元或以上的項目，截至 2020 年底已有 333 個項目。去年，從2021 年1 月開始。請注意，這是北美的數據，但我們在歐洲看到了類似的趨勢，儘管美元沒有那麼大。

A few points to note. First, at $933 billion, this number is 3x the normal rate, and the increase translates directly into electrical markets. As a reminder, the electrical content on these projects is typically anywhere from 3% to 5%.

有幾點要注意。首先，達到 9,330 億美元，這個數字是正常水準的 3 倍，而這一成長直接轉化為電力市場。提醒一下，這些項目的電力含量通常在 3% 到 5% 之間。

Second, the number continues to grow and is up 9% from Q3. This will not go on forever, we're sure, but there continues to be strong momentum for U.S. industrial projects, and we're building a multiyear backlog.

其次，數量持續成長，較第三季成長 9%。我們確信，這種情況不會永遠持續下去，但美國工業項目的勢頭仍然強勁，而且我們正在積壓多年的訂單。

And third, about 72% of these projects are still in the planning phases, and only 18% have actually started. Some 10% have been canceled or significantly delayed, but this number is actually lower than historical rates.

第三，這些項目中約有 72% 仍處於規劃階段，只有 18% 已實際啟動。大約 10% 的航班被取消或大幅推遲，但這個數字實際上低於歷史水平。

For those that have started, we've won over $1 billion in orders with a win rate of approximately 40%. And we're in active negotiations on another $1 billion of electrical content on a small subset of these total projects. So as you can see, mega projects are a compelling reason to be optimistic about the future.

對於那些已經開始的公司，我們已經贏得了超過 10 億美元的訂單，獲勝率約為 40%。我們正在就這些總項目中一小部分的另外 10 億美元電力內容進行積極談判。正如您所看到的，大型專案是對未來持樂觀態度的一個令人信服的理由。

Turning to Slide 6. We want to highlight the timing and the duration of these mega projects as they become opportunities for our electrical business. The primary conclusion is we've not seen a significant impact from the large step-up in the number or size of mega projects yet, but it's coming.

轉向幻燈片 6。我們想強調這些大型專案的時機和持續時間，因為它們成為我們電力業務的機會。主要結論是，我們還沒有看到大型專案數量或規模大幅增加的重大影響，但它即將到來。

While each project is different, we put together our view of 3 representative examples of reindustrialization projects, including a semiconductor, an EV battery and a health care example. This slide indicates the number of months between an announcement of a mega project and the time we begin to negotiate it, the time from an announcement of an order -- the time from an announcement to an order and from an announcement to a shipment.

雖然每個項目都不同，但我們將我們對再工業化項目的 3 個代表性示例的看法匯總在一起，包括半導體、電動汽車電池和醫療保健示例。這張投影片顯示了從宣布一個大型項目到我們開始談判的時間之間的月數，從宣布訂單的時間——從宣佈到下訂單的時間以及從宣佈到發貨的時間。

As you can see, it takes on average 3 to 5 years from when a project is announced to when it shows up in our revenue. So while the gratification is certainly delayed, this is what's showing up in our backlog and providing outstanding visibility to future growth. With over $1 billion of orders that we've already won, we expect revenues to be recognized over the next several years in line with each of these products' individual time lines.

正如您所看到的，從專案宣佈到體現在我們的收入中，平均需要 3 到 5 年的時間。因此，雖然滿足感肯定會延遲，但這就是我們的積壓訂單中所顯示的內容，並為未來的成長提供了出色的可見性。我們已經贏得了超過 10 億美元的訂單，我們預計未來幾年將根據每種產品的具體時間表確認收入。

And just as a point of reference, our revenues in Electrical America for mega projects in 2023 was only about 3% of our total revenues. By contrast, they represent 16% of our negotiations and 6% of our orders. Hence, the conclusion that most of the impact from the significant step-up in mega projects is still ahead of us.

作為參考，2023 年我們在 Electrical America 的大型專案收入僅占我們總收入的 3% 左右。相比之下，它們占我們談判的 16% 和訂單的 6%。因此，我們得出的結論是，大型專案的大幅增加所產生的大部分影響仍然存在。

And now let me just turn it over to Tom. But before I do, I do want to take this opportunity to thank Tom. I mean Tom has just been an outstanding leader for Eaton in his tenure with us, and I couldn't have asked for a better partner or a more effective CFO. And Tom, we're absolutely disappointed to see you go, we fully understand the reason you made this decision. We wish you all the best of luck, and thanks once again for this outstanding leadership over the last 3 years.

現在讓我把它交給湯姆。但在此之前，我確實想藉此機會感謝湯姆。我的意思是，湯姆在我們任職期間剛成為伊頓的傑出領導者，我找不到更好的合作夥伴或更有效率的財務長了。湯姆，我們對你的離開感到非常失望，我們完全理解你做出這個決定的原因。我們祝福您一切順利，並再次感謝過去三年來的優秀領導。

Thanks, Craig. I'll start by reviewing how our fiscal year 2023 results compared to our original guidance. Throughout the year, we demonstrated the ability to execute on our commitments and raise guidance for all key metrics. We've delivered our third consecutive year of double-digit organic growth with a 20% increase in adjusted EPS, all-time record margins and a 48% increase in free cash flow.

謝謝，克雷格。首先，我將回顧我們 2023 財年的表現與最初的指導相比如何。在這一年中，我們展示了履行承諾並提高所有關鍵指標指導的能力。我們已連續第三年達到兩位數的有機成長，調整後每股盈餘成長 20%，利潤率創歷史新高，自由現金流成長 48%。

A particular note, organic growth and segment margins were up versus the original guidance, 400 and 110 basis points, respectively. Further, adjusted EPS and free cash flow grew 11% and 4%, respectively, versus the original guide.

特別值得注意的是，有機成長和部門利潤率較最初的指導分別上升了 400 和 110 個基點。此外，與最初的指導相比，調整後的每股盈餘和自由現金流分別增加了 11% 和 4%。

On the next chart, we have a summary of our quarterly results, which includes several records. With respect to the top line, we posted an all-time sales record of $6 billion, up 11%. Organic growth continues to be strong, up 10% for the quarter. We have generated double-digit organic growth in 7 of the last 8 quarters, with the last 7 quarters growing over 20% on a 2-year stack.

在下一張圖表中，我們總結了季度業績，其中包括幾項記錄。就營收而言，我們創造了 60 億美元的歷史銷售記錄，成長了 11%。有機成長持續強勁，本季成長 10%。在過去 8 個季度中，我們有 7 個季度實現了兩位數的有機成長，其中過去 7 個季度的 2 年增長超過 20%。

We posted operating profit Q4 records on both a margin and absolute basis. Operating profit grew 22% and segment margin expanded 200 basis points to 22.8%. Incremental margin was very strong at 42%. Adjusted EPS of $2.55 increased by 24% over the prior year. This is an all-time record and above the high end of our guidance range.

我們公佈了第四季度營業利潤的利潤率和絕對值記錄。營業利益成長 22%，部門利潤率擴大 200 個基點，達到 22.8%。增量利潤非常強勁，達到 42%。調整後每股收益為 2.55 美元，比上年增長 24%。這是歷史記錄，高於我們指導範圍的上限。

This performance resulted in all-time quarterly operating and free cash flow records. Our $1.3 billion of operating cash flow was 9% higher than the prior year, generating 18% free cash flow margin and 103% free cash flow conversion. For the full year, we also set numerous records, including record sales, segment margins, adjusted EPS and earnings and operating and free cash flow.

這一業績創造了歷史最高的季度營運和自由現金流記錄。我們 13 億美元的營運現金流比上年成長 9%，產生 18% 的自由現金流利潤率和 103% 的自由現金流轉換。全年我們也創下了多項記錄，包括創紀錄的銷售額、部門利潤率、調整後每股收益和盈利以及營運和自由現金流。

On Slide 9, we detail our Electrical Americas results. The Electrical Americas business continues to execute very well and delivered another very strong quarter. We set an all-time record for sales, operating profit and margins. Organic sales growth remained strong at 16% with broad-based growth in nearly all end markets. On a 2-year stack, organic growth is up 36%.

在投影片 9 上，我們詳細介紹了 Electrical Americas 的結果。電氣美洲業務繼續表現良好，並實現了另一個非常強勁的季度。我們創造了銷售額、營業利潤和利潤率的歷史記錄。有機銷售成長依然強勁，達到 16%，幾乎所有終端市場都有廣泛成長。兩年來，有機成長高達 36%。

Electrical Americas has generated double-digit organic growth for 8 consecutive quarters. All-time record operating margin of 28.5% was up versus prior year 480 basis points, benefiting primarily from higher volumes, effective management of price cost and improved manufacturing efficiency. Incremental margin was 58% for the segment. On a rolling 12-month basis, orders were down 4%. However, it's important to note that the dollar value of the orders remains high, and the decline needs to be viewed in the context of the 34% order growth in Q4 of last year.

Electrical Americas 已連續 8 個季度實現兩位數的有機成長。營運利潤率創歷史新高，達到 28.5%，比上一年提高了 480 個基點，這主要得益於產量的增加、價格成本的有效管理以及製造效率的提高。該部門的利潤增量為 58%。從 12 個月的滾動來看，訂單量下降了 4%。但值得注意的是，訂單的美元價值仍然很高，下滑需要在去年第四季訂單成長34%的背景下看待。

As discussed in prior earnings calls, order intake is an important metric that needs to be analyzed together with record backlog. Currently, in our electrical sector, we have backlog coverage of almost 3x our historical average. We've looked at multiple scenarios with meaningful order intake decline and are confident in those scenarios, given our backlog coverage that we can generate robust organic growth for several quarters, well into 2025.

如同先前的財報電話會議中所討論的，訂單量是一個重要指標，需要與創紀錄的積壓訂單一起進行分析。目前，在我們的電力產業，我們的積壓訂單覆蓋率幾乎是歷史平均值的三倍。我們已經研究了訂單量大幅下降的多種情景，並且對這些情景充滿信心，因為我們的積壓覆蓋範圍表明我們可以在幾個季度（直至 2025 年）實現強勁的有機增長。

More specifically, Electrical Americas backlog increased 18% year-over-year and was also up sequentially, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.2 on a rolling 12-month basis. For orders, we had particular strength in data center, MOEM and institutional markets.

更具體地說，Electrical America 的積壓訂單年增 18%，環比也有所上升，導致 12 個月滾動訂單出貨比達到 1.2。在訂單方面，我們在資料中心、MOEM 和機構市場方面具有特殊優勢。

Also, our major project negotiations pipeline in Q4 was up 55% versus prior year and up 189% since Q4 2021. On a full year basis, Electrical Americas posted 19% organic growth with 26.5% margins, up 400 basis points over prior year. Electrical Americas posted records for full year sales, along with profit on both a margin and absolute basis. With the tailwinds from secular trends, strong execution and robust backlog, Electrical Americas is well positioned as we enter 2024.

此外，我們第四季的主要專案談判管道比去年同期成長了55%，自2021 年第四季以來成長了189%。全年來看，Electrical Americas 實現了19% 的有機成長，利潤率為26.5% ，比去年同期成長了400 個基點。美洲電氣公司公佈了全年銷售額以及利潤率和絕對利潤的記錄。憑藉長期趨勢、強大的執行力和強勁的積壓訂單的推動，電氣美洲在進入 2024 年時處於有利地位。

The next chart summarizes our results for the Electrical Global segment. Leveraging Q4 record revenue, organic growth increased to 4% from flat in Q3. We have strengthened data center, industrial and commercial and institutional markets. Operating margin of 18.8% was up 10% versus the prior year.

下圖總結了我們在全球電氣領域的結果。憑藉第四季創紀錄的收入，有機成長從第三季持平增至 4%。加強資料中心、工商、機構市場。營業利益率為 18.8%，較上年成長 10%。

Orders were up 1% on a rolling 12-month basis, with strength in data center and IT, utility, MOEM and industrial markets. Importantly, book-to-bill continues to remain greater than 1. On a full year basis, Electrical Global posted 5% organic growth and 19.3% margins. The business posted records for both full year sales and operating profit.

訂單連續 12 個月成長 1%，資料中心和 IT、公用事業、MOEM 和工業市場表現強勁。重要的是，訂單出貨比繼續保持大於 1。全年來看，Electrical Global 實現了 5% 的自然成長和 19.3% 的利潤率。該公司公佈了全年銷售額和營業利潤的記錄。

Before moving to our Industrial businesses, I'd like to briefly recap the combined Electrical segments. For Q4, we posted organic growth of 11%, incremental margin of 51% and segment margin of 25%, which was up 320 basis points over prior year. On a rolling 12-month basis, our book-to-bill ratio for our Electrical sector remains very strong, above 1.1. We remain quite confident in our positioning for continued growth with strong margins in our overall electrical business.

在討論我們的工業業務之前，我想先簡單回顧一下合併後的電氣部門。第四季度，我們的有機成長為 11%，增量利潤率為 51%，部門利潤率為 25%，比去年同期成長 320 個基點。從 12 個月的滾動來看，我們電氣行業的訂單出貨比仍然非常強勁，高於 1.1。我們對整體電力業務的持續成長和強勁利潤率充滿信心。

Chart 11 highlights our Aerospace segment. We posted an all-time quarterly sales and Q4 operating profit record. Organic growth was 8% for the quarter, with a 2% contribution from foreign exchange. Growth was driven by broad strength across all markets, with particular strength in defense aftermarket, in both commercial OEM and commercial aftermarket, which were up 26%, 25% and 18%, respectively.

圖 11 重點介紹了我們的航空航天部門。我們創下了季度銷售額和第四季營業利潤的歷史新高。本季有機成長 8%，其中 2% 來自外匯貢獻。成長是由所有市場的廣泛實力推動的，特別是國防售後市場的強勁，商業 OEM 和商業售後市場分別成長了 26%、25% 和 18%。

Operating margin of 22.4% was down 210 basis points on a year-over-year basis, benefiting from higher volumes and effective management of price cost offset by unfavorable mix and favorable defense programs in the prior year. On a rolling 12-month basis, orders increased 7% and with especially strong growth in commercial and defense aftermarket and commercial OEM. Year-over-year backlog increased 13% and was up 3% sequentially. On a rolling 12-month basis, our book-to-bill for our Aerospace segment remained strong at 1.1.

營業利潤率為 22.4%，年減 210 個基點，這得益於產量的增加和價格成本的有效管理，這些成本被上一年不利的組合和有利的國防計劃所抵消。在連續 12 個月的基礎上，訂單成長了 7%，其中商業和國防售後​​市場以及商業 OEM 的成長尤其強勁。積壓訂單較去年同期增加 13%，較上季增加 3%。在連續 12 個月的基礎上，我們航空航天部門的訂單出貨比仍保持在 1.1 的強勁水平。

Moving on to our Vehicle segment on Page 12. In the quarter, total revenue was up 2%, all from favorable foreign exchange. Vehicle end markets were down 500 basis points year-over-year, but the business was able to deliver outgrowth, primarily driven by higher aftermarket sales, stronger share in heavy-duty transmissions and a new product launch of electrical vehicle gearing in China.

接下來是第 12 頁的車輛部門。本季總收入成長了 2%，這一切都得益於有利的外匯。汽車終端市場年減 500 個基點，但該業務能夠實現成長，主要得益於售後市場銷量的增加、重型變速箱份額的增加以及電動汽車傳動裝置新產品在中國的推出。

Operating margin came in at 17.9%, 270 basis points above prior year, driven by effective management of price cost and improvement in manufacturing efficiency. Throughout 2023, we've demonstrated the ability to execute on operational improvements as shown by our 270 basis point improvement in segment margins from the first half to the second half of the year.

由於價格成本的有效管理和製造效率的提高，營業利潤率為 17.9%，比上年同期增長 270 個基點。在整個 2023 年，我們展示了執行營運改善的能力，從上半年到下半年，我們的部門利潤率提高了 270 個基點。

On Page 13, we show results for our eMobility business. We generated another quarter of strong growth, including an all-time sales record. Revenue was up 19%, 18% organically and 1% from favorable foreign exchange. Driven by the ramp-up of new product launches, we outpaced the market, which grew 7%. However, due to program start-up costs, the operating loss increased by $14 million when compared to the prior year. On a full year basis, eMobility posted 18% organic growth on slightly lower margins as we continue to invest in the business.

在第 13 頁，我們展示了電動交通業務的成果。我們又實現了一個季度的強勁成長，包括創歷史新高的銷售記錄。收入成長了 19%，有機成長了 18%，有利的外匯收入成長了 1%。在新產品推出量增加的推動下，我們的成長速度超過了市場，成長了 7%。然而，由於專案啟動成本的影響，營業虧損較前一年增加了 1,400 萬美元。全年來看，隨著我們繼續投資該業務，eMobility 實現了 18% 的有機成長，但利潤率略有下降。

We remain very encouraged by the profitable growth prospects of the eMobility segment. In 2023, we won new programs with more than $1 billion of mature year revenues. Through these wins, we continue to find opportunities to leverage expertise and differentiated technologies across segments.

我們仍然對電動車領域的獲利成長前景感到非常鼓舞。 2023 年，我們贏得了年收入超過 10 億美元的新項目。透過這些勝利，我們繼續尋找機會利用跨細分市場的專業知識和差異化技術。

Moving to Page 14. We show our Electrical and Aerospace backlog updated through Q4. As you can see, we continue to build backlog with Electrical stepping up to $9.5 billion and Aerospace reaching $3.2 billion for a total backlog of $12.7 billion. Both businesses have increased their backlogs by significantly more than 100% since Q4 2020, with Electrical growing almost 200%.

轉到第 14 頁。我們顯示了截至第四季度更新的電氣和航空航天積壓訂單。正如您所看到的，我們繼續積壓訂單，其中電氣領域的積壓訂單已增至 95 億美元，航空航太領域的積壓訂單已達 32 億美元，積壓訂單總額達 127 億美元。自 2020 年第四季以來，這兩個業務的積壓訂單數量均大幅增加了 100% 以上，其中電氣業務增加了近 200%。

Versus prior year, our backlogs have grown by 15% in Electrical and 13% in Aerospace, which exceeded our expectations as we began the year. As noted earlier, both Electrical and Aerospace have book-to-bill ratios above 1.1. Our strong backlog to close the year gives us continued confidence in our growth outlook for 2024 and beyond.

與去年相比，我們在電氣領域的積壓訂單增加了 15%，在航空航太領域的積壓訂單增加了 13%，這超出了我們年初的預期。如前所述，電氣和航空航太產業的訂單出貨比均高於 1.1。今年年底的大量積壓訂單讓我們對 2024 年及以後的成長前景充滿信心。

In addition to our strong backlog growth in 2023, the next page shows the acceleration in growth of our negotiations pipeline, which supports our expectation for stronger markets and structurally higher organic growth rate. In Electrical Americas, the pipeline doubled over the past 3 years and increased a further 29% and in 2023. This is even stronger than the 19% organic growth in our Electrical Americas business, which suggests continued strength going forward. For 2023, we saw $6.2 billion of projects in our negotiations pipeline in Electrical Americas alone.

除了 2023 年積壓訂​​單的強勁成長之外，下一頁還顯示了我們的談判管道的加速成長，這支持了我們對更強勁的市場和結構性更高的有機成長率的預期。在電氣美洲業務中，管道在過去3 年翻了一番，並在2023 年進一步增加了29%。這甚至比我們電氣美洲業務19% 的有機增長還要強勁，這表明未來將繼續保持強勁勢頭。 2023 年，光是電氣美洲地區的談判中就有 62 億美元的項目。

Now I'll pass it back to Craig to walk through the guidance and wrap up the presentation.

現在我會將其傳回給克雷格，讓其逐步完成指南並結束演示。

Thanks, Tom. Turning to Page 16, we lay out our end market assumptions for 2024. You'll recall that we provided an early look at our 2024 assumptions during our Q3 earnings call at the end of October. Today, we're updating those assumptions.

謝謝，湯姆。翻到第 16 頁，我們列出了 2024 年的終端市場假設。您可能還記得，我們​​在 10 月底的第三季財報電話會議上對 2024 年的假設進行了初步審查。今天，我們正在更新這些假設。

And with the exception of residential markets where we have increased our outlook from down slightly to flat in commercial vehicles where we have decreased our outlook from slightly declining to declining, all of our assumptions have remained the same. In contrast to what we're seeing in the macro economy, we continue to expect growth in about 80% of our end markets. And much of this growth is supported by large backlogs.

除了住宅市場的前景從小幅下修至持平，商用車市場的前景從小幅下降下調至下降外，我們的所有假設都保持不變。與我們在宏觀經濟中看到的情況相反，我們繼續預計約 80% 的終端市場將實現成長。這種增長很大程度上是由大量積壓訂單支持的。

Turning to Page 17. As you've read, we're announcing a new multiyear restructuring program to reduce fixed costs and enhance our efficiency. While we're structurally positioned to deliver higher levels of organic growth, we also have a vast number of opportunities to improve the way we run the company. And we're at a point in time where we have the organizational capacity to take on a number of these efficiency projects that have been in our pipeline for some time.

翻到第 17 頁。正如您所讀到的，我們宣布了一項新的多年期重組計劃，以降低固定成本並提高我們的效率。雖然我們的結構定位是實現更高水準的有機成長，但我們也有大量機會來改善公司的運作方式。我們正處於這樣一個時刻，我們有組織能力來承擔許多已經醞釀了一段時間的效率專案。

The program will focus on reducing structural costs through the consolidation of rooftops, increasing shared services and deploying digital technologies. These actions will also free up time and resources in our businesses, allowing them to focus on growth and driving operational improvements.

該計劃將側重於透過整合屋頂、增加共享服務和部署數位技術來降低結構成本。這些行動還將釋放我們業務的時間和資源，使他們能夠專注於成長並推動營運改善。

Overall, we expect $375 million of restructuring costs over the next 3 years with $325 million of mature year savings in 2027. This includes approximately $175 million of charges in 2024 and $50 million of savings, both of which are included in our 2024 guide, and I'll cover those in the next several slides. While the company is performing well, we see these actions as an important part of how we'll continue to do so for years to come.

整體而言，我們預計未來3 年的重組成本為3.75 億美元，到2027 年到期年節省費用為3.25 億美元。這包括2024 年約1.75 億美元的費用和5,000 萬美元的節省，這兩者都包含在我們的2024 年指南中，並且我將在接下來的幾張投影片中介紹這些內容。雖然公司表現良好，但我們認為這些行動是我們未來幾年繼續這樣做的重要組成部分。

Moving to Page 18. We summarize our 2024 revenue and margin guidance. Our organic growth for 2024 is expected to be between 6.5% and 8.5%, with particular strength in Electrical Americas and Aerospace, both expected to be up between 9% and 11% while eMobility is expected to grow some 30% as new programs are launched and the electric vehicle market continues to see solid growth.

轉到第 18 頁。我們總結了 2024 年收入和利潤率指導。我們2024 年的有機成長預計將在6.5% 至8.5% 之間，其中美洲電氣和航空航太領域尤其強勁，預計兩者將成長9% 至11%，而隨著新計畫的推出，電動交通預計將成長30% 左右電動車市場持續穩健成長。

And I'd also add that the healthy end markets, combined with our large backlog provides actually better-than-normal visibility for our 2024 outlook. For segment margins, our guidance range of 22.4% to 22.8% is an improvement of 60 basis points at the midpoint from our 2023 all-time record of 22%.

我還想補充一點，健康的終端市場，加上我們大量的積壓訂單，實際上為我們 2024 年的前景提供了比正常情況更好的可見性。對於分部利潤率，我們的指引範圍為 22.4% 至 22.8%，較 2023 年的歷史記錄 22% 提高了 60 個基點。

As we've communicated earlier, incremental margins of about 30% are what you should assume, and that's what's reflected in our guidance. These incrementals are consistent with our plan to step up investments in R&D and with the investments we're making to expand our manufacturing capacity, all done to ensure future growth.

正如我們之前所傳達的，您應該假設大約 30% 的增量利潤，這也反映在我們的指導下。這些增量與我們加大研發投資的計劃以及我們為擴大製造能力而進行的投資是一致的，所有這些都是為了確保未來的成長。

On the next page, we have the balance of our guidance for 2024 and Q1. For 2024, our adjusted EPS is expected to be between $9.95 and $10.35 a share, $10.15 at the midpoint and up some 11% from 2023. And for operating cash flow, our guidance is between $4 billion and $4.4 billion, up 17% at the midpoint. The key drivers here are really a combination of higher earnings and improved working capital.

在下一頁上，我們列出了 2024 年和第一季的指導平衡。 2024 年，我們調整後的每股盈餘預計為每股9.95 美元至10.35 美元，中間為10.15 美元，較2023 年成長約11%。對於經營現金流，我們的指引為40 億美元至44 億美元，較2023 年增長17%。中點。這裡的關鍵驅動因素實際上是更高的收入和改善的營運資本的結合。

We also expect to repurchase between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion of our shares outstanding. And given our cash position at the end of the year, at the end of '23 and our strong cash generation this year, we'll still have plenty of room for strategic M&A. For Q1, we expect organic growth to be between 6% and 8%, segment margins between 21.3% and 21.7% and adjusted EPS in the range of $2.21 and $2.31 per share.

我們也預計將回購 15 億至 25 億美元的已發行股票。考慮到我們在 23 年底的現金狀況以及今年強勁的現金產生能力，我們仍然有足夠的空間進行策略併購。對於第一季度，我們預計有機成長將在 6% 至 8% 之間，部門利潤率將在 21.3% 至 21.7% 之間，調整後每股收益將在 2.21 美元至 2.31 美元之間。

Let me just close here on Page 20. As we transition into 2024, I think we can all conclude that Eaton has proven that we're a changed company, a company that delivers higher growth, higher earnings and does so consistently. And we're proud of our team's record performance in 2023. But once again, we see opportunities to be better everywhere. As we look forward, we continue to experience powerful megatrends that are driving higher growth in our end markets, and we're investing to ensure that we're capturing these opportunities while gaining market share.

讓我在第20 頁結束。隨著我們進入2024 年，我想我們都可以得出這樣的結論：伊頓已經證明我們是一家發生了變化的公司，一家能夠持續實現更高成長、更高收益的公司。我們為我們團隊在 2023 年創下的創紀錄表現感到自豪。但我們再次看到，到處都有變得更好的機會。展望未來，我們將繼續經歷強大的大趨勢，推動我們的終端市場實現更高成長，我們正在進行投資，以確保我們在獲得市場份額的同時抓住這些機會。

We're also continuing to optimize the way we run the company, improving our operational execution, leveraging our scale and reducing our fixed costs. This is allowing us to invest like never before in R&D, in capacity expansion and in our people. So our expectations are high, and our teams are looking forward to delivering another exceptional year.

我們也持續優化公司營運方式，提高營運執行力，利用規模並降低固定成本。這使我們能夠以前所未有的方式投資於研發、產能擴張和員工。因此，我們的期望很高，我們的團隊期待再創輝煌的一年。

So with that, I'll open things up for any questions that you may have.

因此，我將解答您可能提出的任何問題。

Thanks, Craig. (Operator Instructions) With that, I will turn it over to the operator to give you guys the operation.

謝謝，克雷格。 （操作員指示）這樣我就交給操作員給你們操作了。

(Operator Instructions) Then now this question will come from the line of Jeff Sprague from Vertical Research.

（操作員說明）那麼現在這個問題將來自Vertical Research 的Jeff Sprague。

Good luck, Tom. Craig, first question for me is just on the restructuring itself. We tend to think of these things being kind of contracyclical, right? Demand is weak. We're in a recession, we do a heavy restructuring. It seems, I don't know, odd or a little risky maybe to undertake a big move like this with such a strong demand pull through both the Electrical and Aero businesses.

祝你好運，湯姆。克雷格，我的第一個問題是關於重組本身。我們傾向於認為這些事情是反週期的，對嗎？需求疲軟。我們正處於經濟衰退之中，我們進行了大規模的重組。我不知道，在電氣和航空業務的需求如此強勁的情況下採取這樣的重大舉措可能有點奇怪或有點冒險。

So can you maybe just address the risk mitigation and how you manage kind of maybe the capacity through this? I assume you're also trying to increase capacity while you restructure, but love some additional thoughts on that.

那麼，您能否解決風險緩解問題以及如何透過此方法管理容量？我認為您在重組時也在嘗試增加容量，但喜歡對此進行一些額外的想法。

Jeff. Appreciate the question. And -- I'm not sure for everybody else but I'm getting a little background noise on the call. I'm not sure -- okay, that's better.

傑夫.感謝這個問題。而且——我不確定其他人的情況，但我在通話中聽到了一些背景噪音。我不確定——好吧，這樣更好。

Jeff, we spent a lot of time as a company sorting this one out in terms of whether or not it made sense to take on these restructuring projects at this time. Because, to your point, things are going very well and we have perhaps more growth opportunities than we've ever had in the history of the company. But at the same time, we actually have more capacity today than we've had in a long time.

傑夫，作為一家公司，我們花了很多時間來解決這個問題，以確定此時承擔這些重組專案是否有意義。因為，就您而言，一切進展順利，我們可能擁有比公司歷史上更多的成長機會。但同時，我們今天的產能其實比很長一段時間以來的還要多。

As you'll certainly be aware, we haven't done many acquisitions over the last couple of years. In fact, we really haven't done any. And so we actually have more bandwidth as an organization today to take on these projects. And one of the things that we do as a company is that we always have a forward view of our opportunities to be better, to improve efficiencies, to eliminate redundancies, to build scale, to essentially leverage some of these new technologies that are coming forth.

您肯定知道，過去幾年我們沒有進行太多收購。事實上，我們真的什麼都沒做過。因此，今天作為一個組織，我們實際上擁有更多的頻寬來承擔這些專案。作為一家公司，我們所做的一件事是，我們始終對我們的機會有前瞻性的看法，以改進、提高效率、消除冗餘、擴大規模，並從根本上利用一些正在出現的新技術。

And so we, today, as an organization, as a leadership team, all agree with that. There's probably no better time than right now to take on these projects, to improve our cost position and really set the company up for margin expansion for the next 3 years on top of the growth that we're going to see as a business. So lots of confidence today in our ability to take it on, and we have plenty of capacity as an organization to do so.

因此，今天，我們作為一個組織、作為一個領導團隊，都同意這一點。現在可能是開展這些專案的最佳時機，可以改善我們的成本狀況，並在我們將看到的業務成長的基礎上，真正為公司未來三年的利潤率擴張做好準備。今天，我們對我們承擔這項任務的能力充滿信心，而且我們作為一個組織有足夠的能力這樣做。

And what I would just add, Jeff, is add -- I think it would actually be riskier if we didn't do it. Because the foundation of the restructuring program is simplification as well an elimination of waste, which frees up human resource time to focus on the shift that we've been making into growth. So it actually would be riskier if we didn't do it, and it's great to lean forward and execute it at a time of strength.

傑夫，我要補充的是——我認為如果我們不這樣做，實際上風險會更大。因為重組計劃的基礎是簡化和消除浪費，從而騰出人力資源時間來專注於我們一直在進行的成長轉變。因此，如果我們不這樣做，實際上風險會更大，而且在有實力的時候向前傾並執行它是很棒的。

Yes. That's a great point. I said that in my outbound commentary, this notion that essentially, we're freeing up time in our operations so that they can focus on growth and improving our operational execution, while some of our corporate teams take on a number of these support services. So you're absolutely right, Tom. Thanks for that amplification.

是的。這是一個很好的觀點。我在對外評論中說過，這個概念本質上是我們在營運中騰出時間，以便他們能夠專注於成長和提高我們的營運執行力，而我們的一些企業團隊則承擔了許多此類支援服務。所以你是完全正確的，湯姆。感謝您的放大。

Yes. And just a follow-up -- the background noise might be me, I'm dialing through my computer here, juggling multiple phone calls and different cell phones going on. A crazy day here.

是的。接下來——背景噪音可能是我，我正在透過我的電腦撥號，同時處理多個電話和不同的手機。這裡是瘋狂的一天。

Unrelated question, just on backlog. Obviously, it does provide a lot of visibility and comfort. But we've seen a couple of companies with big backlogs also have sales disappointments, because the backlog is big, but it's not fungible, right? Air pockets develop here and there.

不相關的問題，只是積壓的問題。顯然，它確實提供了很多可見性和舒適度。但我們看到一些有大量積壓訂單的公司也有銷售令人失望的情況，因為積壓訂單很大，但它是不可替代的，對嗎？到處都會出現氣穴。

Maybe just kind of address that risk. Do you kind of see anything that you need to kind of navigate through from a timing standpoint, particularly given the way you illustrated the long kind of order conversion cycle on some of those project stuff that's in the backlog?

也許只是解決這種風險。從時間的角度來看，您是否看到了任何需要導航的內容，特別是考慮到您說明積壓中的一些項目內容的漫長訂單轉換週期的方式？

Yes, no, I appreciate that question, Jeff, and understand the nature of it. But I can just tell you, based upon at least what we're seeing and the nature of our backlog today and as I'm sure you're well aware of that, we, as Eaton and really, quite frankly, as an industry, we've had more demand than we've had capacity largely over the last couple of years.

是的，不，我很欣賞這個問題，傑夫，並且理解它的本質。但我可以告訴你，至少根據我們所看到的情況和我們今天積壓的性質，我相信你很清楚這一點，我們作為伊頓，並且坦率地說，作為一個行業，在過去的幾年裡，我們的需求基本上超過了我們的產能。

And so we think we have plenty of ability to accelerate, decelerate if necessary, backlog conversion to essentially keep the top line growing at an attractive rate in the event that you have some sort of order that would be moving in or out or some sort of lack of linearity in the order book itself. And so not a concern. We've not seen it to date. As we look at kind of the stratification of the backlog and when orders are due, we don't have that concern.

因此，我們認為我們有足夠的能力來加速，必要時減速，積壓轉換，以在您有某種訂單進出或某種情況下基本上保持收入以有吸引力的速度增長。訂單簿本身缺乏線性。所以不用擔心。到目前為止我們還沒有看到它。當我們查看積壓訂單的分層以及訂單到期時，我們沒有這種擔憂。

And the next question is from Andrew Obin from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯‧奧賓。

Seems like you guys are doing great, yes. Just a different way of asking, I guess, Jeff's question. Can you just talk -- you mentioned capacity additions. Can you just -- and I appreciate that some of this is competitive. But what areas are you adding capacity? When will this capacity be available to really move the needle? And -- yes, and anything you're doing differently on geographies post the whole COVID experience?

看來你們做得很好，是的。我想，這只是傑夫問題的另一種提問方式。能簡單談談嗎？您提到了容量增加。你能不能——我很欣賞其中一些是有競爭力的。但您正在增加哪些領域的產能？這種能力什麼時候才能真正發揮作用？是的，在整個新冠疫情經歷之後，您在各個地區做了哪些不同的事情？

Yes, no, appreciate the question, Andrew. And one of the things we tried to do in the last earnings call is add a little bit of color around this $1 billion of investment that we're putting in as a company to support growth. And I would tell you, it's really pretty broad-based.

是的，不，謝謝你的問題，安德魯。在上次財報電話會議中，我們試圖做的一件事就是為我們作為一家公司為支持成長而投入的 10 億美元投資增添一點色彩。我想告訴你，它的基礎非常廣泛。

We talked about investments that we're making to support growth in utilities, in transformers, in both regulators and our line insulation and protection equipment. We talked about, obviously, the huge growth that we're seeing in data centers and growth in institutional markets and the investments that we're making there in low and medium voltage assemblies and fitboards and panelboards. We've had to make investments in our core component circle breaker capacity.

我們討論了我們為支援公用事業、變壓器、調節器以及線路絕緣和保護設備的成長而進行的投資。顯然，我們談到了資料中心的巨大成長和機構市場的成長，以及我們在低壓和中壓組件、安裝板和配電板方面的投資。我們必須對核心零件破圈能力進行投資。

And obviously, we're making big investments in eMobility as well. So I think it's actually fairly broad-based with respect to the product lines. As it relates to the geography, we're clearly seeing much bigger investments, much faster growth in the Americas, and that's really where the -- principally a lot of these big investments have gone.

顯然，我們也在電動車領域進行了大量投資。所以我認為它的產品線實際上是相當廣泛的。由於與地理有關，我們清楚地看到美洲的投資規模更大，成長速度更快，而這確實是——主要是許多大型投資的去向。

But we -- to your question about timing, what we're assuming in terms of our own capacity, industry capacity is another issue as we work through suppliers and some of the others in the value chain. But we think a lot of this capacity for us begins to phase in this year. And so sometime between, let's say, the second quarter and the end of the year when we'll have most of our investments done -- and it certainly gives us the capacity to do more, assuming there aren't other bottlenecks and restrictions, whether it be labor or others in the value chain.

但是，對於你關於時間安排的問題，當我們與供應商和價值鏈中的其他一些人合作時，我們對自己的能力、行業能力的假設是另一個問題。但我們認為我們的大部分能力今年都開始逐步發揮作用。因此，在第二季和年底之間的某個時候，我們將完成大部分投資——假設沒有其他瓶頸和限制，這肯定會讓我們有能力做更多的事情，無論是勞動力還是價值鏈中的其他人。

Got you. And then just a follow-up, I guess, naturally builds on the first answer. In terms of your supply chain, what are the biggest challenges are you still experiencing? And what has gotten better over the past 3, 6 months? And what's still a problem?

明白你了。我想，接下來的後續行動自然會建立在第一個答案的基礎上。就您的供應鏈而言，您仍然遇到的最大挑戰是什麼？過去 3、6 個月裡哪些方面變得更好了？還有什麼問題嗎？

Yes. What I would tell you, in many ways, Andrew, we're really back to where we've been historically, and we've never lived in a world where we didn't have the intermittent supply chain issues. So I would say, by and large, we've seen fairly significant progress every place.

是的。我要告訴你的是，安德魯，在很多方面，我們真的回到了歷史上的狀態，我們從來沒有生活在一個沒有間歇性供應鏈問題的世界。所以我想說，總的來說，我們在每個地方都看到了相當顯著的進步。

It used to be that electronics were a major bottleneck and issue. Most of those issues are now behind us. We still have pockets of individual challenges in various suppliers with various components. But I would say today, it is really more episodic and unique than it is, I'd say, a pattern or a broader, let's say, capacity constraint in a particular commodity.

電子產品曾經是一個主要的瓶頸和問題。大多數問題現在已經成為過去。我們仍然面臨來自不同供應商和不同組件的個別挑戰。但我今天要說的是，它實際上比我所說的一種模式或更廣泛的，比如說特定商品的產能限制更具偶發性和獨特性。

And so we, like in our own investments, we've been working hard to build capacity internally. We've also been working with our suppliers, giving them lead time and visibility into our growth over the next multiple years to ensure that they, too, are making investments in capacity to keep up with our demand. And so I would say today, it's largely the episodic issue as opposed to a systemic issue.

因此，就像我們自己的投資一樣，我們一直在努力建立內部能力。我們也一直與供應商合作，為他們提供交貨時間並了解我們未來幾年的成長情況，以確保他們也在產能方面進行投資以滿足我們的需求。所以我今天想說，這主要是偶發性問題，而不是系統性問題。

Just to jump in, Andrew, on the last point. I think that's really been key, partnering with the suppliers so we can grow together with them. And we've gotten much more efficient, probably as a result of the pandemic, understanding what we need on a go-forward demand basis.

安德魯，我想插話最後一點。我認為這確實是關鍵，與供應商合作，這樣我們就可以與他們一起成長。我們的效率提高了很多，這可能是由於疫情的影響，我們在未來的需求基礎上了解了我們的需求。

Tom, you'll be missed, and congratulations.

湯姆，我們會想念你的，恭喜你。

Our next question is from Chris Snyder from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的克里斯·史奈德。

So obviously, mega projects have become a big driver of the Eaton story and an important driver of the outlook, so I appreciate all the information you guys provided there. But if we step back and look -- and even look through the low single-digit mega project tailwind in 2023, I think you said it was 3% of total of Americas revenue, organic growth has still grown at a double-digit rate for the last 8 quarters.

顯然，大型專案已經成為伊頓故事的重要驅動力和前景的重要驅動力，所以我感謝你們在那裡提供的所有資訊。但如果我們退一步看，即使是看 2023 年低個位數的大型項目順風，我想你說過它佔美洲總收入的 3%，但有機增長仍然以兩位數的速度增長。過去8 個季度。

Can you just talk about why underlying demand has been so strong? Because I think when most investors see the huge growth numbers, everyone just assumes it's the mega project opportunity already playing out.

您能談談為什麼潛在需求如此強勁嗎？因為我認為，當大多數投資者看到巨大的成長數字時，每個人都會認為這是已經出現的大型專案機會。

No, I appreciate the question. And I think I'd say long before we were talking about mega projects, we were talking about secular growth drivers, we were talking about energy transition, we were talking about the electrification of the economy. We were talking about digitalization.

不，我很欣賞這個問題。我想我想說，早在我們談論大型專案之前，我們就在談論長期成長動力，我們在談論能源轉型，我們在談論經濟電氣化。我們正在談論數位化。

You think about -- today, mega projects deal with these big projects above $1 billion announcements, but we've seen very similar growth in projects that are well below the $1 billion threshold until reindustrialization of the U.S. and other markets where today, you have production moving back in and big investments taking place. And so the trends are much broader than mega projects.

你想想——今天，大型項目涉及這些宣布的10 億美元以上的大型項目，但我們看到遠低於10 億美元門檻的項目也有非常相似的增長，直到美國和其他市場今天的再工業化，你有生產恢復並進行大規模投資。因此，趨勢比大型專案要廣泛得多。

The reason we've put this emphasis on mega projects is because it's a great indicator of the multiyear runway that we have and a chance to give the investor community visibility into the outlook over multiple years. But you're absolutely right. We're seeing broad-based growth in our business much beyond this mega project emphasis, but the mega projects will become a bigger piece of our future. That's why we talked about 3% of sales, 6% of orders, 16% of negotiations, that continues to be a tailwind, a real impetus for future growth.

我們之所以如此重視大型項目，是因為它是我們擁有的多年跑道的一個很好的指標，並且有機會讓投資者群體了解多年的前景。但你是絕對正確的。我們看到我們業務的廣泛成長遠遠超出了這個大型專案的重點，但大型專案將成為我們未來的更大組成部分。這就是為什麼我們談到 3% 的銷售額、6% 的訂單、16% 的談判，這仍然是未來成長的順風車、真正的推動力。

Yes. And Chris, if I could just throw in on that. We talked about in the prepared remarks at a high level, our major projects, our large project negotiations, and that's much less than these mega projects. And just some of the numbers, if you look at year-over-year for data centers growing over 160% in terms of negotiation volume; institutions over 40%; government and health care over, 30%. So it's really, really broad-based, as Craig says. The mega projects, if you like, just really put the cherry on top and give us just a long runway going forward.

是的。克里斯，如果我能加入的話。我們在準備好的高層演講中談到了我們的重大項目、我們的大項目談判，而這比這些大型項目要少得多。如果你看看資料中心的談判量年增超過 160%，這只是其中的一些數字；機構超過40%；政府和醫療保健超過 30%。因此，正如克雷格所說，它的基礎非常非常廣泛。如果你願意的話，大型專案確實把櫻桃放在了首位，並為我們提供了一條漫長的前進道路。

Yes, no, absolutely. I appreciate the durability and sustainability that it brings. And then just kind of on that same topic, my back-of-the-envelope math suggests that this ramp in mega projects at least drives about a $25 billion incremental market opportunity over the next few years. So a pretty massive ramp for an industry that is already having trouble keeping up with demand. So I guess the question is, do you see a pathway forward for the industry to meet this demand? And how does that impact your multiyear expectations for our ability to push price and drive margins higher?

是的，不，絕對是。我很欣賞它帶來的耐用性和永續性。然後，就同一主題而言，我的粗略計算表明，大型專案的成長至少會在未來幾年內帶來約 250 億美元的增量市場機會。對於一個已經難以跟上需求的產業來說，這是一個相當大的成長。所以我想問題是，您是否看到該行業滿足這一需求的前進道路？這對您對我們推高價格和提高利潤的能力的多年預期有何影響？

Yes. I think your back-of-the-envelope math is pretty good, actually. It does create a very large growth opportunity for the electrical industry. And I would say to this question around whether or not the industry is going to have enough capacity and bandwidth to capture all of these opportunities, I think one of the restrictions today on growth in general is the fact that there is not enough capacity in the industry, which is why we're making fairly sizable investments in our own manufacturing facilities and working with our suppliers to do the same, so that we can try to get out some of this demand and continue to grow the company.

是的。事實上，我認為你的粗略數學相當不錯。它確實為電氣行業創造了非常大的成長機會。我想說的是，對於這個行業是否有足夠的容量和頻寬來抓住所有這些機會的問題，我認為當今總體增長的限制之一是事實上沒有足夠的容量。行業，這就是為什麼我們對自己的製造設施進行相當大的投資，並與我們的供應商合作做同樣的事情，這樣我們就可以嘗試擺脫部分需求並繼續發展公司。

And then on top of that, perhaps the greatest limiter on growth may be the labor constraint in terms of finding enough skilled trades people to deal with the significant backlog of demand. And so what we think fundamentally is going to happen is that the growth will be there, but the cycle will be extended because we simply will not have enough capacity and labor to deal with all the demand and the time frame in which is requested. And so the cycle will simply be expanded out multiple years beyond where it normally would reside.

除此之外，成長的最大限制因素可能是勞動力限制，無法找到足夠的熟練技工來應對大量積壓的需求。因此，我們認為從根本上將會發生的是，成長將會存在，但週期將會延長，因為我們根本沒有足夠的能力和勞動力來處理所有需求和所要求的時間範圍。因此，這個週期將簡單地延長多年，超出正常情況。

The next question is from the line of Steve Tusa from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Steve Tusa。

Tom, congrats on going out with a bang here. Great, great results. Just the pricing dynamics, what are you guys assuming for -- in your electrical businesses for price roughly in '24 embedded in your guidance?

湯姆，恭喜你在這裡大放異彩。很棒，很棒的結果。只是定價動態，你們對你們的電氣業務中的24年指導價格大致有何假設？

Yes, Steve, as you probably are aware, we don't provide specific price guidance. We don't separate price and volume. I will tell you that on a relative basis, when you compare, let's say, 2024 and 2023, 2022, the price will contribute a much smaller piece of our growth than volume will. And that's -- so we're going to be probably back to more of a historical level of price realization in terms of 2024.

是的，史蒂夫，您可能知道，我們不提供具體的價格指導。我們不區分價格和數量。我會告訴你，相對而言，當你比較 2024 年和 2023 年、2022 年時，價格對我們成長的貢獻將比銷量小得多。也就是說，到 2024 年，我們的價格實現可能會回到歷史水準。

And that's really a function of the fact that we're not seeing inflation. We had to essentially work the price lever fairly significantly over the last couple of years as we dealt with this inflation that was in the system. Now we still have some inflation principally on the labor side. So we will still get price, but its contributions to our growth will be significantly less than it had been in prior years.

這其實是因為我們沒有看到通貨膨脹。在過去的幾年裡，當我們應對系統中的通貨膨脹時，我們基本上必須相當大地運用價格槓桿。現在我們仍然存在一些通貨膨脹，主要是在勞動力方面。因此，我們仍然會得到價格，但它對我們成長的貢獻將大大低於前幾年。

Right. And I guess just on the cash flow statement, I think like -- I'm not sure if I'm seeing this right, but $2 billion of share repo in '24. I mean I think that's a pretty decent-sized number. Anything going on specifically there?

正確的。我想就現金流量表而言，我想——我不確定我的理解是否正確，但 24 年有 20 億美元的股票回購。我的意思是我認為這是一個相當不錯的數字。那裡有什麼具體的事情發生嗎？

$2 billion at the midpoint -- okay, go ahead, Tom.

中間值是 20 億美元——好吧，湯姆，繼續吧。

Yes, no, we finished 2023 with $2.6 billion in cash. And given how we're guiding, and given how we are doing a better job of managing working capital, given the supply chain constraints are going away, we're going to have a very good year of generating cash in 2024. So we go to our capital allocation tenants, and we're very clear, we're not going to collect cash on the balance sheet. So at the midpoint, we've got $2 billion. As was said in the prepared remarks, though, this gives us plenty of dry powder to do strategic M&A., so even with that $2 billion.

是的，不，我們在 2023 年結束時擁有 26 億美元的現金。考慮到我們的指導方式，考慮到我們如何更好地管理營運資金，考慮到供應鏈限制正在消失，我們將在 2024 年迎來創造現金的好年頭。所以我們對於我們的資本配置租戶，我們非常清楚，我們不會在資產負債表上收取現金。所以在中間，我們有 20 億美元。不過，正如準備好的發言中所說，這為我們提供了充足的乾粉來進行戰略併購，所以即使有 20 億美元。

And the final thing I would end with is our net leverage on the balance sheet, which you probably know, Steve, is 1.3. So we've got a very strong balance sheet, just a ton of flexibility from a capital allocation perspective.

最後我要說的是我們資產負債表上的淨槓桿率，史蒂夫，你可能知道，它是 1.3。因此，我們擁有非常強大的資產負債表，從資本配置的角度來看，具有很大的靈活性。

Right. So it's a 2% lift from share count in general embedded in the guidance for EPS growth-ish?

正確的。那麼每股盈餘成長指引中的股票數量總體上增加了 2% 嗎？

Relatively minor, a couple of pennies versus consensus, yes.

是的，相對較小，幾便士與共識相比。

Our next question is from the line of Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Joe Ritchie。

So I think Chris kind of touched on this in his question, but maybe to ask it more explicitly. As you think about that first $1 billion plus in mega projects that you've won, just what's the margin profile of those wins and how we should be thinking about that ultimately materializing in the P&L?

所以我認為克里斯在他的問題中觸及了這一點，但也許是為了更明確地提出這個問題。當您思考您贏得的頭一個 10 億美元以上的大型專案時，這些勝利的利潤狀況是多少？我們應該如何考慮最終在損益表中實現的利潤？

Yes. I would say that the margin profile on these mega projects is not going to be terribly different than the margin profile in the underlying business. It's -- these -- we are in a position, as you can imagine, when your capacity constraint to be selective around where you win. And so we would not expect -- even though they're big projects and oftentimes you find a large project, margins take a bit of a haircut, we should -- you should not expect that as these mega projects translate into revenue.

是的。我想說，這些大型專案的利潤狀況與基礎業務的利潤狀況不會太大不同。正如你可以想像的那樣，當你的能力受到限制時，我們就必須在你獲勝的地方進行選擇性。因此，我們不會期望——即使它們是大型項目，而且通常你會發現一個大型項目，利潤率會受到一些削減，我們應該——你不應該期望這些大型項目轉化為收入。

Got it. That's great to hear, Craig. And then I guess, look, the funnel keeps on growing now for the last couple of quarters at a pretty material rate. There's a lot of concern with the election coming that perhaps this first wave of projects that have broken ground continues, but maybe you get a stall on the second -- in the second wave. Just any thoughts around that? I know you kind of touched on the potential for labor constraints, but I'm really more -- any other thoughts that you would have on just continuing to grow the funnel and then making sure that, that actually -- we'll actually see that ultimately in your outlook?

知道了。很高興聽到這個消息，克雷格。然後我想，看，在過去的幾個季度裡，漏斗一直以相當大的速度成長。人們對即將到來的選舉有很多擔憂，也許第一波已經破土動工的計畫會繼續下去，但也許你會在第二波中陷入停滯。對此有什麼想法嗎？我知道你有點談到了勞動力限制的可能性，但我真的更多的是——你對繼續擴大漏斗然後確保這一點的任何其他想法——我們實際上會看到最終你的看法是什麼呢？

Yes, no, I appreciate the question and the concern. I mean given the upcoming elections and in many ways, it's kind of an unknowable in terms of how the election is going to turn out. And then, quite frankly, even with the change in the administration, difficult to know what position they will take with respect to a lot of the stimulus spending that is essentially underlying and supporting these mega projects.

是的，不，我感謝你的提問和關心。我的意思是，考慮到即將到來的選舉，在很多方面，選舉的結果都是未知的。然後，坦白說，即使政府發生了變化，也很難知道他們對大量刺激支出將採取什麼立場，這些刺激支出本質上是支撐和支持這些大型計畫的。

And I will tell you, what gives us a fairly high level of confidence that it's not going to change materially, is that a lot of these projects are going into red states. And so despite what may happen kind of on the political front, the benefactor of a lot of these projects are actually those red states. And it's walk to wait and see how it all plays.

我會告訴你，讓我們有相當高的信心認為它不會發生重大變化的是，這些項目中有很多都進入了紅州。因此，儘管政治方面可能會發生一些事情，但許多這些項目的捐助者實際上是那些紅色州。需要步行等待，看看這一切會如何進行。

And we don't think today it's going to have a material impact. Today, we are looking at more demand and we have capacity to serve. So even if there was a little bit of a give back, the business is still in great shape and to support the long-term growth assumptions for the company. But in many ways, it's kind of the unknowable. We just don't know how the election is going to unfold and then what happens afterwards.

我們認為今天它不會產生實質影響。今天，我們正在尋找更多的需求，並且我們有能力提供服務。因此，即使有一點回饋，業務仍處於良好狀態，並支持公司的長期成長假設。但從很多方面來說，這都是不可知的。我們只是不知道選舉將如何展開以及之後會發生什麼。

The next question is from Julian Mitchell from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Thanks a lot, Tom, for all the help. Maybe just a first question would be around, when you think about sort of the mega projects and the impact on North America orders, so you've had a sort of a book-to-bill well over 1x in 2023 even with those trading 12-month orders being down somewhat off the high base.

非常感謝湯姆提供的所有幫助。也許只是第一個問題，當你考慮大型項目以及對北美訂單的影響時，所以你的訂單到帳單在 2023 年將遠遠超過 1 倍，即使那些交易 12月訂單較高基數有所下降。

When you look at 2024, is it sort of a similar construct where I suppose you could have orders down, but the book-to-bill still over 1x just because of the capacity constraints? And then more broadly, any concerns that you and your peers collectively are adding maybe too much capacity in electrical output?

當你展望 2024 年時，是否會出現類似的情況，我認為你可能會減少訂單，但由於產能限制，訂單出貨比仍超過 1 倍？更廣泛地說，是否擔心您和您的同行共同增加了過多的電力輸出容量？

Yes, no, appreciate the question, Julian. And it's certainly -- it's one of the things that we spend a lot of time thinking about as well in terms of what will the tenor of 2024 would look like. But I think the short answer to the question is, yes. I mean it's very much possible that you could continue to see a moderation of orders and a book-to-bill and a total backlog that doesn't change.

是的，不，謝謝你的問題，朱利安。當然，這也是我們花費大量時間思考 2024 年的情況的事情之一。但我認為這個問題的簡短答案是，是的。我的意思是，您很可能會繼續看到訂單數量、訂單到帳單和總積壓數量沒有變化。

In fact, when we came into 2023, we actually expected to be able to eat into the backlog, and the backlog grew by some 15%. And so the industry continues to be constrained. And obviously -- but for industry constraints, we would post bigger growth numbers than we provided in the guidance. The demand is there to grow faster than 7.5% that we've talked about as the midpoint of our guidance. So that absolutely is possible that you could essentially -- orders could moderate in your backlog to continue to be record highs or continue to grow.

事實上，當我們進入 2023 年時，我們實際上預計能夠吃掉積壓訂單，而積壓訂單增加了 15% 左右。因此，該行業繼續受到限制。顯然，但由於行業限制，我們將公佈比指南中提供的成長數字更大的數字。需求成長速度將超過 7.5%，我們已經將其作為指導的中點。因此，這絕對是可能的，您基本上可以——訂單量可能會減少您的積壓訂單，以繼續創下歷史新高或繼續增長。

Yes. And just to add a little bit more color to that. And Julian, we talked about this in previous calls and tried to put it in the prepared remarks, but I think it's very important for everyone on the call. We have modeled year-over-year order decline, meaningful order decline. And in those scenarios, given our backlog coverage, as we said in the prepared remarks, we are able to have robust organic growth well into 2025. So that gives us great confidence that even if year-over-year orders continue to decline in a meaningful way, we've still got a good runway.

是的。只是為了增加一點色彩。朱利安，我們在之前的電話會議中討論過這一點，並試圖將其納入準備好的發言中，但我認為這對電話會議中的每個人都非常重要。我們對同比訂單下降、有意義的訂單下降進行了建模。在這些情況下，考慮到我們的積壓情況，正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，我們能夠在2025 年實現強勁的有機增長。因此，這給了我們很大的信心，即使訂單同比繼續下降，有意義的是，我們仍然有一條良好的跑道。

That's helpful. And then just a quick follow-up. Maybe switching to eMobility. You had raised that medium-term revenue guide a few months back. The noise or the news in the EV world is sort of very, very uneven. So maybe just sort of tell us how you see it for the growth rates of that business. We can see a very high growth rate dialed in for eMobility this year. Maybe just any sort of perspectives on that and maybe how you're outperforming the industry.

這很有幫助。然後進行快速跟進。也許轉向電動車。幾個月前您就提出了中期收入指南。電動車領域的噪音或新聞非常非常不均勻。所以也許只是告訴我們您如何看待該業務的成長率。我們可以看到今年電動車的成長率非常高。也許只是對此的任何看法，也許是你如何超越行業。

Yes. Appreciate the question, Julian. And as you know, as we talked on our guidance, we're anticipating 30% growth in our eMobility business. And I can tell you that 30% number is today dialed back from what our customers are asking us for. We do recognize that the industry itself has gone through a little bit of a, I'd say, a wake-up call with respect to the underlying demand for EVs.

是的。感謝這個問題，朱利安。如您所知，正如我們在討論指導時所言，我們預計電動交通業務將成長 30%。我可以告訴你，現在有 30% 的數字是我們客戶要求的。我們確實認識到，對於電動車的潛在需求，該行業本身已經經歷了一點警鐘。

By the way, still great demand, still good growth. Some 20%, I think, in the fourth quarter for us. But overall, a slower rate of growth than perhaps what people were anticipating maybe 12 months ago. So we think the industry will continue to grow and grow nicely.

順便說一句，需求仍然很大，成長仍然良好。我認為第四季我們會達到 20% 左右。但總體而言，成長率可能低於人們 12 個月前的預期。所以我們認為這個行業將繼續成長並且成長良好。

And what we try to do as we build our own plans and our guidance is to make sure we're appropriately hedged back to ensure that we're able to deliver our commitments. But at the same time, we have the flexibility to respond in the event that some of these customer forecasts and their outlooks are actually -- they actually come to fruition. So yes, we took about $1.5 billion, 11% return on sales. We are absolutely still -- see line of sight and committed to those goals, and our forecasts have not changed.

在製定自己的計劃和指導時，我們試圖做的就是確保我們得到適當的對沖，以確保我們能夠兌現我們的承諾。但同時，如果其中一些客戶預測及其前景實際上實現了，我們可以靈活地做出反應。所以，是的，我們獲得了大約 15 億美元，銷售回報率為 11%。我們絕對靜止不動——保持視線並致力於這些目標，我們的預測沒有改變。

Yes. And just one other thing I would add, Julian, and taking you back to the prepared remarks. In eMobility, the market grew 7%, we grew 18%. So we're winning some good business there.

是的。朱利安，我還要補充另一件事，讓您回到準備好的發言。在電動車領域，市場成長了 7%，我們成長了 18%。所以我們在那裡贏得了一些好生意。

Yes. And to your point, Tom, it really is. And I think this was maybe your question, Julian, as well. It really is platform-specific. And our growth really comes from the launching of new eMobility platforms that we have content on. And that's why our growth, we think will clearly be well above the industry's growth rate.

是的。湯姆，就你的觀點而言，確實如此。我想這可能也是你的問題，朱利安。它確實是特定於平台的。我們的成長實際上來自於我們擁有內容的新電動交通平台的推出。這就是為什麼我們的成長，我們認為將明顯高於行業的成長率。

Our next question comes from Steve Volkmann from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Steve Volkmann。

Great. I want to go back to the cost-cutting program. The $325 million of benefits in 2027, should we think of that as kind of net in terms of the margin? Or will you have some increased investments that offset some of that?

偉大的。我想回到削減成本計劃。 2027 年的 3.25 億美元收益，我們是否應該將其視為利潤率淨值？或者您會增加一些投資來抵消其中的一部分嗎？

No, I mean the way we talk about it, we're going to spend $375 million of restructuring to deliver $325 million of mature year benefits. And that is the way you should think about it. We'll spend those restructuring dollars over the next few years. And we had embedded as we talked about, in our 2024 guidance, $175 million of spending and $50 million of benefits, but those benefits will fall through to the bottom line with -- offsetting expenses.

不，我的意思是我們談論它的方式，我們將花費 3.75 億美元進行重組，以提供 3.25 億美元的到期年福利。這就是你應該思考的方式。我們將在未來幾年內花費這些重組資金。正如我們所討論的，我們在 2024 年指導中嵌入了 1.75 億美元的支出和 5000 萬美元的福利，但這些福利將透過抵消支出而落入底線。

Yes. And I was just going to say, and the cash associated with it is in our cash guidance as well.

是的。我只是想說，與之相關的現金也包含在我們的現金指導中。

Understood. So my guess is it's probably a little more Europe-centric since these things tend to be, but any guidance on sort of where we'll see these results most?

明白了。所以我的猜測是，它可能更以歐洲為中心，因為這些事情往往都是如此，但是對於我們在哪裡最能看到這些結果有什麼指導嗎？

Yes, no, I appreciate the question. I think you can just think about it, it's going to be pretty widespread. And you can think about the total kind of allocation of the benefits being pretty much aligned with the company, 2/3 will be in Electrical, 1/3 will be in Industrial. We'll be focused on taking out rooftops in the company, driving some shared services, leveraging digital. But a lot of these benefits will really cut across the company.

是的，不，我很欣賞這個問題。我想你可以想一想，它會非常普遍。你可以認為福利的整體分配方式與公司非常一致，2/3 將在電氣領域，1/3 將在工業領域。我們將專注於打造公司的屋頂，推動一些共享服務，並利用數位化。但其中許多好處確實會惠及整個公司。

And what I would also say is you've described it as cost cutting, and there is an element of that. But I really want to come back to it's a smarter way of doing business as well.

我還要說的是，您將其描述為成本削減，其中有一個因素。但我真的想回到這也是更明智的經營方式。

I mean we've got a number of sites. We're a very complex organization with 5 reportable segments. And we've got opportunities with our central functions to be more efficient and take work off of the business units and allow opportunity cost for leveraging resources, leveraging talent, leveraging capital as well. So there's -- it's not just pure cost cutting. It's a smarter, more efficient way of doing business as well.

我的意思是我們有很多網站。我們是一個非常複雜的組織，有 5 個可報告的部門。我們的中央職能部門有機會提高效率，減輕業務部門的工作量，並允許利用資源、人才和資本的機會成本。所以這不僅僅是純粹的成本削減。這也是一種更聰明、更有效率的經營業務的方式。

And it's the way we help fund the growth, right? It's the way we're funding increases in investments, in R&D and other things that we need to do to grow the company.

這就是我們為成長提供資金的方式，對吧？這是我們增加投資、研發和公司發展所需的其他事情的資金來源。

The next question is from Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。

Sorry about. Mute button problems. So to cover a little ground, but coming back to this capacity issue -- or capacity expansions. I mean the 9% to 11% growth in the Americas, Craig, I mean, it feels like given the backlog builds, obviously, orders continue to enter there, it feels like that could be relatively conservative.

為......感到抱歉。靜音按鈕問題。簡單介紹一下，但回到產能問題──或者說產能擴張。我的意思是美洲地區的增長率為 9% 到 11%，克雷格，我的意思是，考慮到積壓訂單的增加，顯然，訂單繼續進入那裡，感覺這可能是相對保守的。

So just wondering if there's any kind of capacity constraints that are gating that growth forecast? And are you assuming there's going to be some backlog burn or conversion as we go through the year? Any sense there?

那麼只是想知道是否存在任何類型的產能限制限制了成長預測？您是否認為今年會出現一些積壓的消耗或轉換？有什麼意義嗎？

Yes, no. And I think I had mentioned also in my commentary, Nigel, that there's certainly enough demand in the marketplace to post higher growth than we're reflecting in our guidance. And we're making investments to eliminate capacity bottlenecks. And we think by the time we get to the end of the year, we'll be in great shape.

是的，不是。我想我在我的評論中也提到過，奈傑爾，市場上肯定有足夠的需求來實現比我們在指導中反映的更高的成長。我們正在進行投資以消除產能瓶頸。我們認為，到今年年底，我們將處於良好狀態。

But as you know, we're participating in an industry where you have a lot of players in the value chain where you have fairly sizable labor constraints around skilled trades. And so I do think it's going to be a governor on growth based upon these factors that prevents us and the industry from growing much faster than that. You think about this 9% to 11%, this is on top of some 30% plus growth over the last 2 years.

但如您所知，我們正在參與一個價值鏈中有很多參與者的行業，在技術行業中，您有相當大的勞動力限制。因此，我確實認為，基於這些因素，這將成為成長的調控者，阻止我們和產業的成長速度遠遠超過這個速度。你想想這 9% 到 11%，這是在過去 2 年約 30% 以上的增長之上的。

And so I would say that today, we'll see what happens with in terms of the backlog growth and how much the backlog we can burn or can't. Once again, difficult to really say, there's a lot of variables in that. Once again, we thought we were going to burn backlog in 2023, and we actually increased it, right, some 15%. So the market continues to perform even better than what we imagined. But there are very real capacity constraints in the industry that we think become the governor around this 9% to 11% growth in our Electrical business in the Americas.

所以我想說，今天，我們將看看積壓訂單的增長會發生什麼，以及我們可以燃燒或不能燃燒多少積壓訂單。再說一次，很難說，這裡面有很多變數。我們再一次認為我們將在 2023 年燃燒積壓訂單，而我們實際上增加了它，對吧，大約 15%。因此，市場的表現繼續比我們想像的更好。但該行業存在非常現實的產能限制，我們認為這將成為我們美洲電氣業務 9% 至 11% 成長的主導因素。

Yes, yes. I appreciate that. And then it just feels like data center is the -- obviously, that's probably going to be your strongest growth vertical in '24. And I think you mentioned negotiations up 160% off a pretty high base. So just thinking about capacity in that single end market. I mean is that a concern? And does the $1 billion [you put in], does that [cover] the kind of growth that we should see coming through in '24, '25 then?

是的是的。我很感激。然後感覺資料中心顯然是 24 年成長最快的垂直領域。我想你提到談判比相當高的基數提高了 160%。因此，只需考慮單一終端市場的容量即可。我的意思是，這是一個問題嗎？ [你投入的] 10 億美元是否能夠[涵蓋]我們應該在 24 年、25 年看到的成長？

Yes, no, data centers will certainly be a very strong growth market for us in 2024 as well into 2025. We talked about in terms of our own forecast for the industry, we said the data center market, we think, grows at a compound growth rate of some 16% over the next 5 years or so. And that is certainly more than supported by orders. We grew from 20% in Q4. We -- in revenue, orders in the rolling 12 were up 30%. Negotiations were a lot more than that.

是的，不，從2024 年到2025 年，資料中心對我們來說肯定是一個非常強勁的成長市場。我們談到了我們自己對產業的預測，我們說資料中心市場，我們認為，將以複合式成長未來5年左右的成長率約為16%。這當然不僅僅是訂單的支援。我們的成長率從第四季的 20% 開始成長。就收入而言，過去 12 年的訂單成長了 30%。談判的內容遠不止於此。

So we continue to see just an acceleration in the data center market in terms of rate of growth. And once again, because this industry, too, is capacity constrained, is labor constrained, we think, which ultimately ended up happening, is the -- as a growth cycle, that just extends or could be for a decade at very attractive growth levels.

因此，我們繼續看到資料中心市場的成長率正在加速。再說一次，因為這個產業也受到產能和勞動力的限制，我們認為，最終發生的情況是——作為一個成長週期，它只會以非常有吸引力的成長水平延長或可能持續十年。

Yes. Exactly. That's a long time. And '24, do you think '24 will be in that 20% there or even better?

是的。確切地。那是很長一段時間了。而“24”，你認為“24”會在那 20% 中甚至更好嗎？

Yes. I mean we'll see. We're not providing guidance per se for individual end markets today, but you can certainly assume that within that 9% to 11%, that our assumption for data centers is going to be on the higher end of that.

是的。我的意思是我們會看到。今天，我們並未為各個終端市場提供指導，但您當然可以假設，在 9% 到 11% 的範圍內，我們對資料中心的假設將處於較高水平。

Yes. Just to add, the chart for the end markets, we have data centers and distributed IT growing strong double digit. So -- and everything from an order perspective, as Craig said, points to very robust growth in 2024.

是的。補充一下，在終端市場圖表中，我們的資料中心和分散式 IT 正以兩位數的速度強勁成長。因此，正如克雷格所說，從訂單角度來看，一切都表明 2024 年將出現非常強勁的成長。

Yes, it's vertical. Thanks, Tom, and congratulations.

是的，它是垂直的。謝謝，湯姆，恭喜你。

The next question is from Tim Thein from Citigroup.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Tim Thein。

Yes. Great. I'll just fire one in here. But I guess, to start, after spending some time with Mike Yelton, I guess, it was around this time last year, I guess, I can better understand why it was such a good move. But just on the -- on the mix in Electrical, I would guess just given the strength in these big projects that there has been a trend, I guess, as Americas comment. But you've seen kind of this continued shift from more of the growth coming from systems versus products.

是的。偉大的。我就在這裡開一槍。但我想，首先，在與麥克耶爾頓相處了一段時間後，我想，大約是在去年的這個時候，我想，我可以更好地理解為什麼這是一個如此好的舉動。但就電氣方面的混合而言，我猜想，鑑於這些大型項目的實力，我想，正如美國評論的那樣，已經出現了一種趨勢。但你已經看到了這種持續的轉變，更多的成長來自於系統而不是產品。

How do you -- in years' past, there's been times when that's given you challenges in terms of kind of managing the profitability of that. But I guess, maybe your outlook in terms of that mix dynamic in '24 and again, your confidence in terms of managing to the extent that continues, more of the growth coming from systems relative to products?

你如何——在過去的幾年裡，有時這給你帶來了管理盈利能力方面的挑戰。但我想，也許你對 24 年的混合動態的展望，以及你對管理持續程度的信心，更多的成長來自於與產品相關的系統？

Yes. And I appreciate the question. I know we kind of created this monster a little bit, but we're trying to get the investor community to move away from this systems versus product distinction. Because practically speaking, they're all connected. So any time you sell an electrical system, it encompasses all of our products and components.

是的。我很欣賞這個問題。我知道我們有點創造了這個怪物，但我們正在努力讓投資者社群擺脫這種系統與產品的差異。因為實際上，它們都是相互關聯的。因此，每當您銷售電氣系統時，它都包含我們所有的產品和組件。

And so for us, we really think about the right way to think about the company is to really take a look at the end markets that we laid out. We have data centers, utilities, industrial facilities, commercial facilities, and that will be perhaps the most informative way to think about the company in the context of where growth is going.

因此，對我們來說，我們真正認為思考公司的正確方法是真正審視我們佈局的終端市場。我們擁有資料中心、公用事業、工業設施、商業設施，這可能是在成長方向的背景下思考公司最有資訊的方式。

And I can just tell you, in general, from a profitability standpoint today, there is not a significant difference today between the profitability of systems and the components that go into the system. So now there was a time inside the company back when, let's say, we were -- in the lighting business, for example. And lighting was considered a products business. It was a relatively large business with relatively lower margins than the rest of electrical.

我可以告訴你，總的來說，從今天的盈利能力的角度來看，今天系統的盈利能力和系統組件的盈利能力之間沒有顯著差異。因此，現在公司內部有一段時間，比如說，我們從事照明業務。照明被認為是一個產品業務。這是一個相對較大的業務，但利潤率比其他電氣業務相對較低。

And it was a meaningful different perhaps held back by lighting that drove different profitability between the two. But today, we don't have a significant difference in profitability. And we really think the right way to think about the company is really the function of these end markets that we've laid out once again on Slide 16...

這是一個有意義的差異，可能是受到照明的阻礙，導致兩者之間的獲利能力不同。但今天，我們的獲利能力並沒有顯著差異。我們確實認為，思考公司的正確方式實際上是我們在幻燈片 16 上再次列出的這些終端市場的功能...

Got it. Okay. Yes, yes, for sure. And real quick, Craig, on the Arrow piece within commercial, is there -- do you expect much difference in terms of the growth between OEM and aftermarket in '24? Or are those both similar projected growth rates?

知道了。好的。是的，是的，當然。克雷格，很快，關於商業中的 Arrow 部分，您是否預計 24 年 OEM 和售後市場之間的成長會有很大差異？或者這兩個預測成長率相似嗎？

Yes, no, and it's an important question because, as you know, there is a very different profit profile in OE order versus an aftermarket order. Both will grow nicely in 2024. We do expect OE to grow slightly faster than aftermarket, which holds margins back a little bit, which is going to be reflected in our guidance. But we expect to see very strong growth in both commercial as well as the aftermarket piece of the business, the commercial OE and aftermarket.

是的，不是，這是一個重要的問題，因為如您所知，原廠訂單與售後訂單的利潤狀況非常不同。兩者都將在 2024 年實現良好成長。我們確實預計原配市場的成長速度將略快於售後市場，這會導致利潤率略有下降，這將反映在我們的指導中。但我們預期商業和售後市場業務（商業原廠設備和售後市場）都會出現非常強勁的成長。

And our next question is from Deane Dray from RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的迪恩德雷 (Deane Dray)。

And congrats, Tom, best of luck. And for -- I don't know if you can parse this out, but is there any way you can frame your expectations on North America Electrical of what would be going through distribution versus direct ship? I'm not sure how precise you can get there, but any color would be helpful.

恭喜你，湯姆，祝你好運。對於——我不知道你是否能解析這個問題，但有什麼方法可以讓你對北美電力公司的預期進行分銷和直接運輸？我不確定你能達到多精確，但任何顏色都會有幫助。

Yes. I would say, Deane, that in North America specifically, a lot of what we do goes through distribution. And that number, order of magnitude, I think, is about 70% or so. So it's a fairly sizable piece.

是的。迪恩，我想說，特別是在北美，我們所做的很多事情都是經過分銷的。我認為這個數字大約是 70% 左右。所以這是一個相當大的部分。

And as these mega projects continue to grow, as perhaps data centers, hyperscalers continue to grow, some of that tends to be perhaps more direct by virtue of the nature. But a lot of our business today those through distribution, and our distributors are just -- I'd say -- I've always said, they're perhaps our greatest asset. We are committed to distribution. They add tremendous value. We have a very strong distribution network. So yes, it's one of the real assets of the company.

隨著這些大型專案的不斷增長，也許資料中心、超大規模專案也在不斷增長，其中一些專案可能會因為性質而變得更加直接。但我們今天的許多業務都是透過分銷實現的，而我們的經銷商只是——我想說——我一直說，他們也許是我們最大的資產。我們致力於分銷。它們增加了巨大的價值。我們擁有非常強大的分銷網絡。所以是的，它是公司的實際資產之一。

Great. And I don't think I heard the word destocking come up at all today. So -- and it did create a chuckle there. But is there any destocking, any pockets of it? You all seem to have steered clear of any of that over the past 4 months or 4 quarters, but just any color there would be helpful.

偉大的。我想我今天根本沒有聽到去庫存這個字。所以——這確實引起了一陣笑聲。但是否有去庫存、減少庫存的情況呢？在過去的 4 個月或 4 個季度裡，你們似乎都避開了任何這些，但任何顏色都會有幫助。

We did talk about a little bit of destocking that we saw in our European business, which, quite frankly, really began at the beginning of 2023. We started to see destocking in Europe specifically. Fortunately, the good news is that we're beyond that.

我們確實談到了我們在歐洲業務中看到的一點去庫存，坦白說，這實際上是從 2023 年初開始的。我們開始特別在歐洲看到庫存。幸運的是，好消息是我們已經超越了這個目標。

But in the Americas business, specifically, other than the odd balls and pockets of places, we've not really seen destocking in the Americas. And that's largely because these markets, as we talked about, continue to grow pretty dramatically. But we did have a little bit of it in Europe, but it's fortunately behind us now.

但具體而言，在美洲業務中，除了一些奇怪的地方之外，我們還沒有真正看到美洲的去庫存情況。正如我們所討論的，這主要是因為這些市場繼續大幅成長。但我們在歐洲確實有過一些這樣的情況，但幸運的是現在它已經過去了。

Thank you. And at this time, there are no further questions in queue. Mr. Jin, please go ahead with closing remarks.

謝謝。此時，隊列中沒有其他問題了。請金先生致閉幕詞。

Okay. Thanks, guys. I know it's a busy day, and we do appreciate everybody's questions. As always, the IR team is available to address your follow-up calls. Have a good day. Thanks for joining us. Bye.

好的。多謝你們。我知道今天很忙碌，我們非常感謝大家的提問。與往常一樣，投資者關係團隊可以解答您的後續電話。祝你有美好的一天。感謝您加入我們。再見。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T teleconference. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與和使用 AT&T 電話會議。您現在可以斷開連線。