伊頓 (ETN) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Eaton Fourth Quarter 2023 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) And as a reminder, your conference is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，感謝大家的支持，歡迎參加伊頓 2023 年第四季電話會議。 （操作員指示）提醒一下，您的會議正在被錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Yan Jin. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給主持人嚴進。請繼續。

Good morning. Thank you all for joining us for Eaton's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. With me today are Craig Arnold, our Chairman and CEO; and Tom Okray, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Our agenda today includes operating remarks by Craig, then I will turn it over to Tom who will highlight the company's performance in the fourth quarter. As we have done on our past calls, we'll be taking questions at end of Craig's closing commentary.

早安.感謝大家參加伊頓 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有我們的董事長兼執行長克雷格‧阿諾德 (Craig Arnold)；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Tom Okray。我們今天的議程包括克雷格的營運評論，然後我將把它交給湯姆，他將重點介紹公司在第四季度的表現。正如我們在過去的電話會議中所做的那樣，我們將在 Craig 的結束語結束時回答問題。

The press release and the presentation we'll go through today have been posted on our website. The presentation includes adjusted earnings per share, adjusted free cash flow and other non-GAAP measures, they are reconciled in the appendix. A webcast of this call is accessible on our website and will be available for replay.

我們今天要發布的新聞稿和簡報已發佈在我們的網站上。該報告包括調整後的每股盈餘、調整後的自由現金流量和其他非公認會計準則指標，它們在附錄中進行了調節。本次通話的網路直播可在我們的網站上觀看，並可供重播。

I would like to remind you that our comments today will include statements related to the expected future results of the company and are therefore forward-looking statements. Our actual results may differ materially from our forecasted projections due to a wide range of risks and uncertainties that are described in our earnings release and the presentation.

我想提醒您，我們今天的評論將包括與公司預期未來業績相關的陳述，因此是前瞻性陳述。由於我們的收益報告和簡報中描述了各種各樣的風險和不確定性，我們的實際結果可能與我們的預測有重大差異。

With that, I will turn it over to Craig.

說完這些，我將把麥克風交給 Craig。

Okay. Thanks, Yan. We're pleased to report our Q4 results and record performance for the year. Our team continued to deliver on our commitments, supported by strong markets and good execution.

好的。謝謝，Yan。我們很高興地報告我們第四季度的業績和今年創紀錄的業績。在強勁的市場和良好的執行力的支持下，我們的團隊繼續履行我們的承諾。

So let me begin with some highlights of the quarter on Page 3. We generated adjusted EPS of $2.55 for the quarter and $9.12 for the year, both all-time records. Adjusted EPS was up 24% and full year was up 20%. And we continued to post strong margins. Q4 was 22.8%, up 200 basis points and above the high end of our guidance.

所以讓我從第 3 頁上的本季的一些亮點開始。調整後每股收益成長 24%，全年成長 20%。我們持續保持強勁的利潤率。第四季的成長率為 22.8%，上漲 200 個基點，高於我們預期的高點。

We also delivered strong incremental margins, 42% in the quarter. And we continue to see strong market activity. On a rolling 12-month basis, book-to-bill for Electrical and Aerospace was 1.1 and our backlog increased by 15% for Electrical and 13% for Aerospace. And as you've read, we're initiating guidance for 2024 and expect another year of strong organic growth, double-digit increases in adjusted EPS and continued strength in cash flow. And I'll go through the full guidance details shortly.

我們也實現了強勁的增量利潤率，本季為 42%。我們繼續看到強勁的市場活動。以連續 12 個月為基礎，電氣和航空航太的訂單出貨比為 1.1，電氣領域的積壓訂單增加了 15%，航空航太領域的積壓訂單增加了 13%。正如您所讀到的，我們正在製定 2024 年的指引，並預計今年將實現強勁的有機增長、調整後每股收益實現兩位數增長以及現金流繼續保持強勁。我很快就會介紹完整的指導細節。

Lastly, we're announcing a multiyear restructuring program that will eliminate fixed costs and improve our overall efficiency. The program will cost $375 million and deliver $325 million of mature year benefits.

最後，我們宣布了一項多年重組計劃，該計劃將消除固定成本並提高我們的整體效率。該計劃將耗資 3.75 億美元，並提供 3.25 億美元的成熟年度福利。

So the combination of market tailwinds, our internal growth initiatives and our continued focus on operating efficiency will allow us to deliver outstanding results for years to come. And speaking of market tailwinds, let's turn to Slide 4. In the last couple of quarters, we shared our framework for how we think about key growth drivers for the company. The chart reflects the 6 secular growth trends that will positively impact our business today and for years to come. And we're stepping up our investment in R&D and capital to ensure that we're well positioned to capture this growth. We think Eaton is uniquely positioned in that most of our businesses are expected to see an acceleration in market-driven growth opportunities.

因此，市場順風、我們的內部成長計劃以及我們對營運效率的持續關注將使我們能夠在未來幾年取得出色的業績。說到市場順風，讓我們翻到投影片 4。此圖表反映了將對我們當前和未來幾年的業務產生積極影響的六種長期成長趨勢。我們正在加大對研發和資本的投資，以確保我們能夠抓住這一成長機會。我們認為伊頓具有獨特的優勢，因為我們的大多數業務都有望看到市場驅動的成長機會加速。

In our prior 2 earnings calls, we provided a summary of progress on infrastructure spending, reindustrialization, utility and data center markets in Electrical and our Aerospace business. Today, we'll provide an update on the impact from reindustrialization and how it continues to drive a record number of mega projects in North America. We'll also provide you with a framework for how to think about the timing impact on mega projects from when a project is announced, to a negotiation, to an order and eventually, to a sale.

在我們之前的兩次收益電話會議中，我們總結了電氣和航空航天業務的基礎設施支出、再工業化、公用事業和資料中心市場的進展。今天，我們將介紹再工業化的影響以及它如何繼續推動北美創紀錄數量的大型項目。我們還將為您提供一個框架，幫助您如何思考從專案宣布、到談判、到訂單、到最終銷售對大型專案的時間影響。

So let's take a look at Slide 5 in the presentation. We've shared this data previously, and it's a good proxy for the reindustrialization trend we're seeing. You'll recall, this summarizes the number of mega projects that we have announced since January of 2021. And a mega project, once again is a project with an announced value of $1 billion or more and there's been 333 of those through the end of last year, beginning in January 2021. Note that this is North America data, but we're seeing a similar trend in Europe, although the dollars are not as large.

讓我們來看看簡報中的第 5 張投影片。我們之前分享過這些數據，它很好地體現了我們所看到的再工業化趨勢。您會記得，這總結了我們自 2021 年 1 月以來宣布的大型項目數量。

A few points to note. First, at $933 billion, this number is 3x the normal rate, and the increase translates directly into electrical markets. As a reminder, the electrical content on these projects is typically anywhere from 3% to 5%.

需要注意幾點。首先，9,330 億美元的數字是正常水準的 3 倍，而且這一成長直接影響到電力市場。提醒一下，這些項目中的電氣含量通常在 3% 到 5% 之間。

Second, the number continues to grow and is up 9% from Q3. This will not go on forever, we're sure, but there continues to be strong momentum for U.S. industrial projects, and we're building a multiyear backlog.

第二，數量持續成長，季增第三季增加了9%。我們確信，這種情況不會永遠持續下去，但美國工業項目仍然保持強勁勢頭，而且我們正在累積多年的積壓訂單。

And third, about 72% of these projects are still in the planning phases, and only 18% have actually started. Some 10% have been canceled or significantly delayed, but this number is actually lower than historical rates.

第三，約72％的項目仍處於規劃階段，只有18％的專案真正開工。約有10％的航班被取消或嚴重延誤，但這一數字實際上低於歷史水準。

For those that have started, we've won over $1 billion in orders with a win rate of approximately 40%. And we're in active negotiations on another $1 billion of electrical content on a small subset of these total projects. So as you can see, mega projects are a compelling reason to be optimistic about the future.

對於已經開始的客戶，我們贏得了超過 10 億美元的訂單，成功率約為 40%。我們正在就這些項目中一小部分的另外 10 億美元電力內容進行積極談判。所以正如你所看到的，大型專案是讓我們對未來保持樂觀的令人信服的理由。

Turning to Slide 6. We want to highlight the timing and the duration of these mega projects as they become opportunities for our electrical business. The primary conclusion is we've not seen a significant impact from the large step-up in the number or size of mega projects yet, but it's coming.

轉到投影片 6。 我們想強調這些大型專案的時間和持續時間，因為它們成為我們電力業務的機會。主要結論是，我們尚未看到大型專案數量或規模大幅增加所帶來的重大影響，但這種影響即將到來。

While each project is different, we put together our view of 3 representative examples of reindustrialization projects, including a semiconductor, an EV battery and a health care example. This slide indicates the number of months between an announcement of a mega project and the time we begin to negotiate it, the time from an announcement of an order -- the time from an announcement to an order and from an announcement to a shipment.

雖然每個項目都不同，但我們總結了 3 個具有代表性的再工業化項目範例，包括半導體、電動車電池和醫療保健範例。這張投影片顯示了從宣布一個大型項目到我們開始談判之間的月份數，從宣布訂單到下訂單以及從宣佈到發貨的時間。

As you can see, it takes on average 3 to 5 years from when a project is announced to when it shows up in our revenue. So while the gratification is certainly delayed, this is what's showing up in our backlog and providing outstanding visibility to future growth. With over $1 billion of orders that we've already won, we expect revenues to be recognized over the next several years in line with each of these products' individual time lines.

正如您所看到的，從一個項目宣佈到它出現在我們的收入中平均需要 3 到 5 年的時間。因此，雖然滿足感肯定會延遲，但這就是我們在積壓工作中出現的內容，並為未來成長提供了出色的可見性。我們已經贏得了超過 10 億美元的訂單，預計未來幾年將根據每個產品的單獨時間表確認收入。

And just as a point of reference, our revenues in Electrical America for mega projects in 2023 was only about 3% of our total revenues. By contrast, they represent 16% of our negotiations and 6% of our orders. Hence, the conclusion that most of the impact from the significant step-up in mega projects is still ahead of us.

作為參考，2023 年我們 Electrical America 的大型專案收入僅占我們總收入的 3% 左右。相比之下，它們占我們談判的16%和訂單的6%。因此，我們可以得出這樣的結論：大型專案大幅增加所帶來的大部分影響仍然還在我們眼前。

And now let me just turn it over to Tom. But before I do, I do want to take this opportunity to thank Tom. I mean Tom has just been an outstanding leader for Eaton in his tenure with us, and I couldn't have asked for a better partner or a more effective CFO. And Tom, we're absolutely disappointed to see you go, we fully understand the reason you made this decision. We wish you all the best of luck, and thanks once again for this outstanding leadership over the last 3 years.

現在讓我把話題交給湯姆。但在此之前，我想藉此機會感謝湯姆。我的意思是，湯姆在任職期間一直是伊頓公司的傑出領導者，我找不到比他更好的合作夥伴或更有效的財務長了。湯姆，我們很遺憾看到你離開，我們完全理解你做出這個決定的原因。我們祝福你們好運，並再次感謝你們過去三年來的傑出領導。

Thanks, Craig. I'll start by reviewing how our fiscal year 2023 results compared to our original guidance. Throughout the year, we demonstrated the ability to execute on our commitments and raised guidance for all key metrics. We've delivered our third consecutive year of double-digit organic growth with a 20% increase in adjusted EPS, all-time record margins and a 48% increase in free cash flow.

謝謝，克雷格。我將先回顧我們 2023 財年的表現與我們最初的指引相比如何。全年我們展現了履行承諾的能力，並提高了所有關鍵指標的指導。我們連續第三年達到兩位數的有機成長，調整後每股盈餘成長 20%，利潤率創歷史新高，自由現金流成長 48%。

Of particular note, organic growth and segment margins were up versus the original guidance, 400 and 110 basis points, respectively. Further, adjusted EPS and free cash flow grew 11% and 4%, respectively, versus the original guide.

特別值得注意的是，有機成長和分部利潤率分別高於最初的預期 400 個基點和 110 個基點。此外，調整後的每股盈餘和自由現金流分別較最初的預期增加了 11% 和 4%。

On the next chart, we have a summary of our quarterly results, which includes several records. With respect to the top line, we posted an all-time sales record of $6 billion, up 11%. Organic growth continues to be strong, up 10% for the quarter. We have generated double-digit organic growth in 7 of the last 8 quarters, with the last 7 quarters growing over 20% on a 2-year stack.

在下圖中，我們對季度業績進行了總結，其中包括幾項記錄。就營業收入而言，我們的銷售額創下了 60 億美元的歷史新高，成長 11%。有機成長持續強勁，本季成長 10%。在過去 8 個季度中，我們有 7 個季度實現了兩位數的有機成長，其中最近 7 個季度在兩年的疊加中成長率超過 20%。

We posted operating profit Q4 records on both a margin and absolute basis. Operating profit grew 22% and segment margin expanded 200 basis points to 22.8%. Incremental margin was very strong at 42%. Adjusted EPS of $2.55 increased by 24% over the prior year. This is an all-time record and above the high end of our guidance range.

我們公佈了第四季的營業利潤，無論是利潤率還是絕對值都創下了歷史新高。營業利益成長 22%，分部利潤率擴大 200 個基點，至 22.8%。增量利潤率非常強勁，達到 42%。調整後每股收益為 2.55 美元，較上年增長 24%。這是歷史最高紀錄，並且超出了我們預期範圍的最高值。

This performance resulted in all-time quarterly operating and free cash flow records. Our $1.3 billion of operating cash flow was 9% higher than the prior year, generating 18% free cash flow margin and 103% free cash flow conversion. For the full year, we also set numerous records, including record sales, segment margins, adjusted EPS and earnings and operating and free cash flow.

這一業績創下了季度營運和自由現金流的歷史新高。我們的 13 億美元營運現金流比前一年高出 9%，產生了 18% 的自由現金流利潤率和 103% 的自由現金流轉換率。就全年而言，我們還創下了多項記錄，包括創紀錄的銷售額、分部利潤率、調整後每股收益和收益以及營運和自由現金流。

On Slide 9, we detail our Electrical Americas results. The Electrical Americas business continues to execute very well and delivered another very strong quarter. We set an all-time record for sales, operating profit and margins. Organic sales growth remained strong at 16% with broad-based growth in nearly all end markets. On a 2-year stack, organic growth is up 36%.

在投影片 9 上，我們詳細介紹了美國電氣公司的表現。美洲電氣業務繼續表現良好並再次取得了非常強勁的季度業績。我們的銷售額、營業利潤和利潤率創下了歷史新高。有機銷售額成長保持強勁，達到 16%，幾乎所有終端市場都實現了廣泛成長。在兩年的時間裡，有機成長率達到了 36%。

Electrical Americas has generated double-digit organic growth for 8 consecutive quarters. All-time record operating margin of 28.5% was up versus prior year 480 basis points, benefiting primarily from higher volumes, effective management of price/cost and improved manufacturing efficiency. Incremental margin was 58% for the segment. On a rolling 12-month basis, orders were down 4%. However, it's important to note that the dollar value of the orders remains high, and the decline needs to be viewed in the context of the 34% order growth in Q4 of last year.

Electrical Americas已連續8季實現兩位數的有機成長。營業利潤率達到歷史最高水準的 28.5%，較上年同期上升了 480 個基點，這主要得益於產量增加、有效的價格/成本管理以及製造效率的提高。該部門的增量利潤率為58%。連續 12 個月，訂單下降了 4%。但值得注意的是，訂單的美元價值仍然很高，需要結合去年第四季34%的訂單成長來看待這一下降趨勢。

As discussed in prior earnings calls, order intake's an important metric that needs to be analyzed together with record backlog. Currently, in our electrical sector, we have backlog coverage of almost 3x our historical average. We've looked at multiple scenarios with meaningful order intake decline and are confident in those scenarios, given our backlog coverage that we can generate robust organic growth for several quarters, well into 2025.

正如在先前的收益電話會議上所討論的那樣，訂單量是一個重要指標，需要與記錄積壓一起進行分析。目前，在我們的電力領域，我們的積壓訂單覆蓋率幾乎是歷史平均值的 3 倍。我們研究了訂單量大幅下降的多種情景，並且對這些情景充滿信心，考慮到我們的積壓訂單覆蓋範圍，我們可以在 2025 年之前的幾個季度實現強勁的有機增長。

More specifically, Electrical Americas backlog increased 18% year-over-year and was also up sequentially, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.2 on a rolling 12-month basis. For orders, we had particular strength in data center, MOEM and institutional markets.

更具體地說，美國電氣公司積壓訂單年增 18%，且環比也有所增長，導致連續 12 個月的訂單出貨比為 1.2。對於訂單，我們在資料中心、MOEM 和機構市場特別有優勢。

Also, our major project negotiations pipeline in Q4 was up 55% versus prior year and up 189% since Q4 2021. On a full year basis, Electrical Americas posted 19% organic growth with 26.5% margins, up 400 basis points over prior year. Electrical Americas posted records for full year sales, along with profit on both a margin and absolute basis. With the tailwinds from secular trends, strong execution and robust backlog, Electrical Americas is well positioned as we enter 2024.

此外，我們第四季度的主要項目談判管道比上年增長了 55%，自 2021 年第四季以來增長了 189%。電氣美洲公司公佈了全年銷售額以及利潤率和絕對利潤的記錄。借助長期趨勢的順風、強勁的執行力和充足的積壓訂單，Electrical Americas 在進入 2024 年時已佔據有利地位。

The next chart summarizes our results for the Electrical Global segment. Leveraging Q4 record revenue, organic growth increased to 4% from flat in Q3. We had strength in data center, industrial and commercial and institutional markets. Operating margin of 18.8% was up 10% versus the prior year.

下圖總結了我們全球電氣部門的表現。借助第四季度創紀錄的收入，有機成長率從第三季的持平上升至 4%。我們在資料中心、工業和商業以及機構市場具有實力。營業利益率為18.8%，較上年成長10%。

Orders were up 1% on a rolling 12-month basis, with strength in data center and IT, utility, MOEM and industrial markets. Importantly, book-to-bill continues to remain greater than 1. On a full year basis, Electrical Global posted 5% organic growth and 19.3% margins. The business posted records for both full year sales and operating profit.

訂單量以連續 12 個月計算成長了 1%，資料中心和 IT、公用事業、MOEM 和工業市場表現強勁。重要的是，訂單出貨比繼續保持大於 1。該公司全年銷售額和營業利潤均創下新高。

Before moving to our Industrial businesses, I'd like to briefly recap the combined Electrical segments. For Q4, we posted organic growth of 11%, incremental margin of 51% and segment margin of 25%, which was up 320 basis points over prior year. On a rolling 12-month basis, our book-to-bill ratio for our Electrical sector remains very strong, above 1.1. We remain quite confident in our positioning for continued growth with strong margins in our overall electrical business.

在談到我們的工業業務之前，我想先簡單回顧一下合併後的電氣部門。第四季度，我們的有機成長率為 11%，增量利潤率為 51%，分部利潤率為 25%，比去年同期成長了 320 個基點。連續 12 個月，我們電氣部門的訂單出貨比仍然非常強勁，高於 1.1。我們對於自身持續成長的定位以及整體電氣業務強勁的利潤率仍然充滿信心。

Chart 11 highlights our Aerospace segment. We posted an all-time quarterly sales and Q4 operating profit record. Organic growth was 8% for the quarter, with a 2% contribution from foreign exchange. Growth was driven by broad strength across all markets, with particular strength in defense aftermarket, in both commercial OEM and commercial aftermarket, which were up 26%, 25% and 18%, respectively.

圖 11 重點介紹了我們的航空航天部門。我們創下了季度銷售額和第四季營業利潤的歷史新高。本季有機成長率為 8%，其中外匯貢獻率為 2%。成長主要得益於所有市場的廣泛實力，尤其是國防後市場，無論是商業 OEM 還是商業後市場，都分別成長了 26%、25% 和 18%。

Operating margin of 22.4% was down 210 basis points on a year-over-year basis, benefiting from higher volumes and effective management of price/cost offset by unfavorable mix and favorable defense programs in the prior year. On a rolling 12-month basis, orders increased 7% and with especially strong growth in commercial and defense aftermarket and commercial OEM. Year-over-year backlog increased 13% and was up 3% sequentially. On a rolling 12-month basis, our book-to-bill for our Aerospace segment remained strong at 1.1.

營業利益率為 22.4%，較上年同期下降 210 個基點，這得益於銷量增加和有效的價格/成本管理，但被上一年不利的產品組合和有利的國防計劃所抵消。連續 12 個月，訂單成長了 7%，其中商用和國防售後​​市場以及商用 OEM 的成長尤其強勁。積壓訂單年增 13%，季增 3%。在過去 12 個月內，我們航空航天部門的訂單出貨比仍然保持強勁，為 1.1。

Moving on to our Vehicle segment on Page 12. In the quarter, total revenue was up 2%, all from favorable foreign exchange. Vehicle end markets were down 500 basis points year-over-year, but the business was able to deliver outgrowth, primarily driven by higher aftermarket sales, stronger share in heavy-duty transmissions and a new product launch of electrical vehicle gearing in China.

我們繼續討論第 12 頁的車輛部門。汽車終端市場年減 500 個基點，但業務仍能實現成長，主要得益於售後市場銷售額的增加、重型變速箱份額的增加以及中國電動汽車傳動裝置的新產品的推出。

Operating margin came in at 17.9%, 270 basis points above prior year, driven by effective management of price/cost and improvement in manufacturing efficiency. Throughout 2023, we've demonstrated the ability to execute on operational improvements as shown by our 270 basis point improvement in segment margins from the first half to the second half of the year.

營業利潤率達到 17.9%，比上年增加 270 個基點，這得益於有效的價格/成本管理和製造效率的提高。在整個 2023 年，我們展示了執行營運改善的能力，這一點從上半年到下半年我們的分部利潤率提高了 270 個基點就可以看出。

On Page 13, we show results for our eMobility business. We generated another quarter of strong growth, including an all-time sales record. Revenue was up 19%, 18% organically and 1% from favorable foreign exchange. Driven by the ramp-up of new product launches, we outpaced the market, which grew 7%. However, due to program start-up costs, the operating loss increased by $14 million when compared to the prior year. On a full year basis, eMobility posted 18% organic growth on slightly lower margins as we continue to invest in the business.

第 13 頁，我們展示了我們的 eMobility 業務的成果。我們又實現了一個季度的強勁成長，並創下了歷史新的銷售記錄。營收成長 19%，其中有機成長 18%，有利的外匯匯率成長 1%。在新產品發布的推動下，我們的成長速度超過了市場，達到 7%。但由於專案啟動成本，營業虧損較前一年增加了1,400萬美元。從全年來看，由於我們繼續對業務進行投資，eMobility 在利潤率略低的情況下實現了 18% 的自然成長率。

We remain very encouraged by the profitable growth prospects of the eMobility segment. In 2023, we won new programs with more than $1 billion of mature year revenues. Through these wins, we continue to find opportunities to leverage expertise and differentiated technologies across segments.

我們對電動車領域的獲利成長前景仍然感到非常鼓舞。 2023 年，我們贏得了成熟年收入超過 10 億美元的新專案。透過這些勝利，我們繼續尋找機會利用各領域的專業知識和差異化技術。

Moving to Page 14. We show our Electrical and Aerospace backlog updated through Q4. As you can see, we continue to build backlog with Electrical stepping up to $9.5 billion and Aerospace reaching $3.2 billion for a total backlog of $12.7 billion. Both businesses have increased their backlogs by significantly more than 100% since Q4 2020, with Electrical growing almost 200%.

轉到第 14 頁 我們顯示，我們的電氣和航空航天積壓訂單已於第四季度更新。如您所見，我們的積壓訂單持續增加，其中電氣積壓訂單增加至 95 億美元，航空航太積壓訂單達到 32 億美元，總積壓訂單達到 127 億美元。自 2020 年第四季以來，兩家公司的積壓訂單量均增加了 100% 以上，其中電氣業務的積壓訂單量增加了近 200%。

Versus prior year, our backlogs have grown by 15% in Electrical and 13% in Aerospace, which exceeded our expectations as we began the year. As noted earlier, both Electrical and Aerospace have book-to-bill ratios above 1.1. Our strong backlog to close the year gives us continued confidence in our growth outlook for 2024 and beyond.

與去年同期相比，我們在電氣領域的積壓訂單增加了 15%，在航空航太領域的積壓訂單增加了 13%，這超出了我們年初的預期。如前所述，電氣和航空航太領域的訂單出貨比均超過 1.1。我們今年年底的強勁積壓訂單使我們對 2024 年及以後的成長前景充滿信心。

In addition to our strong backlog growth in 2023, the next page shows the acceleration in growth of our negotiations pipeline, which supports our expectation for stronger markets and structurally higher organic growth rate. In Electrical Americas, the pipeline doubled over the past 3 years and increased a further 29% and in 2023. This is even stronger than the 19% organic growth in our Electrical Americas business, which suggests continued strength going forward. For 2023, we saw $6.2 billion of projects in our negotiations pipeline in Electrical Americas alone.

除了 2023 年強勁的積壓訂單成長外，下一頁還顯示了我們談判管道的成長加速，這支持了我們對更強勁的市場和結構性更高的有機成長率的預期。在電氣美洲業務中，產品線在過去 3 年中翻了一番，到 2023 年又增長了 29%。到 2023 年，光是在美國電氣領域，我們的談判項目就達到 62 億美元。

Now I'll pass it back to Craig to walk through the guidance and wrap up the presentation.

現在我將把它交還給 Craig，讓他講解指導並結束演示。

Thanks, Tom. Turning to Page 16, we lay out our end market assumptions for 2024. You'll recall that we provided an early look at our 2024 assumptions during our Q3 earnings call at the end of October. Today, we're updating those assumptions.

謝謝，湯姆。翻到第 16 頁，我們列出了對 2024 年的終端市場假設。今天，我們更新了這些假設。

And with the exception of residential markets where we have increased our outlook from down slightly to flat in commercial vehicles where we have decreased our outlook from slightly declining to declining, all of our assumptions have remained the same. In contrast to what we're seeing in the macro economy, we continue to expect growth in about 80% of our end markets. And much of this growth is supported by large backlogs.

除了住宅市場方面，我們將商用車市場的前景預期從“小幅下降”上調至“持平”，而商用車市場的前景預期從“小幅下降”下調至“下降”外，我們的所有假設均保持不變。與宏觀經濟的情況相反，我們預計約 80% 的終端市場仍將實現成長。這一增長很大一部分是由大量積壓訂單支撐的。

Turning to Page 17. As you've read, we're announcing a new multiyear restructuring program to reduce fixed costs and enhance our efficiency. While we're structurally positioned to deliver higher levels of organic growth, we also have a vast number of opportunities to improve the way we run the company. And we're at a point in time where we have the organizational capacity to take on a number of these efficiency projects that have been in our pipeline for some time.

翻到第 17 頁。雖然我們在結構上有能力實現更高水準的有機成長，但我們也有大量機會來改善公司營運方式。現在我們已具備組織能力來承擔一些我們已經籌備了一段時間的效率專案。

The program will focus on reducing structural costs through the consolidation of rooftops, increasing shared services and deploying digital technologies. These actions will also free up time and resources in our businesses, allowing them to focus on growth and driving operational improvements.

該計劃將重點關注透過合併屋頂、增加共享服務和部署數位技術來降低結構性成本。這些舉措還將釋放我們業務的時間和資源，使其能夠專注於成長和推動營運改善。

Overall, we expect $375 million of restructuring costs over the next 3 years with $325 million of mature year savings in 2027. This includes approximately $175 million of charges in 2024 and $50 million of savings, both of which are included in our 2024 guide, and I'll cover those in the next several slides. While the company is performing well, we see these actions as an important part of how we'll continue to do so for years to come.

總體而言，我們預計未來 3 年的重組成本為 3.75 億美元，2027 年的成熟年度節省額為 3.25 億美元。在公司業績良好的同時，我們認為這些舉措是我們未來幾年繼續保持良好業績的重要組成部分。

Moving to Page 18. We summarize our 2024 revenue and margin guidance. Our organic growth for 2024 is expected to be between 6.5% and 8.5%, with particular strength in Electrical Americas and Aerospace, both expected to be up between 9% and 11% while eMobility is expected to grow some 30% as new programs are launched and the electric vehicle market continues to see solid growth.

轉到第 18 頁 我們總結了 2024 年的營收和利潤率指引。我們預計 2024 年的有機成長率將在 6.5% 至 8.5% 之間，其中美洲電氣和航空航天業務尤其強勁，預計增長率均在 9% 至 11% 之間，而隨著新項目的推出和電動車市場繼續穩步增長，預計電動車業務將增長約 30%。

And I'd also add that the healthy end markets, combined with our large backlog provides actually better-than-normal visibility for our 2024 outlook. For segment margins, our guidance range of 22.4% to 22.8% is an improvement of 60 basis points at the midpoint from our 2023 all-time record of 22%.

我還要補充一點，健康的終端市場，加上我們大量的積壓訂單，實際上為我們的 2024 年前景提供了比正常情況下更好的可見性。對於分部利潤率，我們的預期範圍為 22.4% 至 22.8%，比 2023 年的歷史最高水準 22% 提高了 60 個基點。

As we've communicated earlier, incremental margins of about 30% are what you should assume, and that's what's reflected in our guidance. These incrementals are consistent with our plan to step up investments in R&D and with the investments we're making to expand our manufacturing capacity, all done to ensure future growth.

正如我們之前所傳達的，您應該假設增量利潤率約為 30%，這也反映在我們的指導下。這些增量與我們加大研發投資的計劃以及擴大製造能力的投資一致，所有這些都是為了確保未來的成長。

On the next page, we have the balance of our guidance for 2024 and Q1. For 2024, our adjusted EPS is expected to be between $9.95 and $10.35 a share, $10.15 at the midpoint and up some 11% from 2023. And for operating cash flow, our guidance is between $4 billion and $4.4 billion, up 17% at the midpoint. The key drivers here are really a combination of higher earnings and improved working capital.

在下一頁中，我們將對 2024 年和第一季的預期進行平衡。 2024 年，我們預期調整後的每股盈餘將在 9.95 美元至 10.35 美元之間，中間值為 10.15 美元，較 2023 年成長約 11%。這裡的關鍵驅動因素實際上是更高的收益和改善的營運資本的結合。

We also expect to repurchase between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion of our shares outstanding. And given our cash position at the end of the year, at the end of '23 and our strong cash generation this year, we'll still have plenty of room for strategic M&A. For Q1, we expect organic growth to be between 6% and 8%, segment margins between 21.3% and 21.7% and adjusted EPS in the range of $2.21 and $2.31 per share.

我們也預計將回購 15 億至 25 億美元的流通股。考慮到我們截至今年底（23 年底）的現金狀況以及今年強勁的現金產生能力，我們仍有足夠的空間進行策略併購。對於第一季度，我們預計有機成長率在 6% 至 8% 之間，分部利潤率在 21.3% 至 21.7% 之間，調整後每股收益在 2.21 美元至 2.31 美元之間。

Let me just close here on Page 20. As we transition into 2024, I think we can all conclude that Eaton has proven that we're a changed company, a company that delivers higher growth, higher earnings and does so consistently. And we're proud of our team's record performance in 2023. But once again, we see opportunities to be better everywhere. As we look forward, we continue to experience powerful megatrends that are driving higher growth in our end markets, and we're investing to ensure that we're capturing these opportunities while gaining market share.

讓我在第 20 頁結束本文。我們為團隊在 2023 年取得的創紀錄表現感到自豪。展望未來，我們將繼續經歷強大的大趨勢，推動終端市場實現更高的成長，我們正在進行投資，以確保我們能夠抓住這些機會，同時獲得市場份額。

We're also continuing to optimize the way we run the company, improving our operational execution, leveraging our scale and reducing our fixed costs. This is allowing us to invest like never before in R&D, in capacity expansion and in our people. So our expectations are high, and our teams are looking forward to delivering another exceptional year.

我們也將持續優化公司營運方式，提高營運執行力，發揮規模優勢並降低固定成本。這使我們能夠對研發、產能擴張和人才進行前所未有的投資。因此，我們抱持著很高的期望，我們的團隊期待著再創輝煌的一年。

So with that, I'll open things up for any questions that you may have.

因此，我將公開回答你們可能提出的任何問題。

Thanks, Craig. (Operator Instructions) With that, I will turn it over to the operator to give you guys the operation.

謝謝，克雷格。 (操作員指示) 這樣，我將把任務交給操作員，讓大家進行操作。

(Operator Instructions) Then now this question will come from the line of Jeff Sprague from Vertical Research.

（操作員指示）那麼現在這個問題將來自 Vertical Research 的 Jeff Sprague。

Good luck, Tom. Craig, first question for me is just on the restructuring itself. We tend to think of these things being kind of contracyclical, right? Demand is weak. We're in a recession, we do a heavy restructuring. It seems, I don't know, odd or a little risky maybe to undertake a big move like this with such a strong demand pulse through both the Electrical and Aero businesses.

祝你好運，湯姆。克雷格，我的第一個問題是關於重組本身。我們傾向於認為這些事情是逆週期的，對嗎？需求疲軟。我們正處於經濟衰退之中，我們正在進行大規模重組。在電氣和航空業務需求如此強勁的情況下採取這樣的大舉措似乎有點奇怪或冒險。

So can you maybe just address the risk mitigation and how you manage kind of maybe the capacity through this? I assume you're also trying to increase capacity while you restructure, but love some additional thoughts on that.

那麼您能否解決風險緩解問題以及如何透過這種方式管理容量？我認為您在重組的同時也試圖增加容量，但我對此有一些額外的想法。

Jeff. Appreciate the question. And -- I'm not sure for everybody else but I'm getting a little background noise on the call. I'm not sure -- okay, that's better.

傑夫。我很感謝你提出這個問題。而且——我不確定其他人是否也聽到了，但是我在通話中聽到了一點背景噪音。我不確定——好吧，那樣更好。

Jeff, we spent a lot of time as a company sorting this one out in terms of whether or not it made sense to take on these restructuring projects at this time. Because, to your point, things are going very well and we have perhaps more growth opportunities than we've ever had in the history of the company.

傑夫，作為一家公司，我們花了很多時間來解決這個問題，即此時進行這些重組專案是否合理。因為正如您所說，事情進展得非常順利，我們擁有的成長機會可能比公司歷史上任何時候都要多。

But at the same time, we actually have more capacity today than we've had in a long time. As you'll certainly be aware, we haven't done many acquisitions over the last couple of years. In fact, we really haven't done any. And so we actually have more bandwidth as an organization today to take on these projects. And one of the things that we do as a company is that we always have a forward view of our opportunities to be better, to improve efficiencies, to eliminate redundancies, to build scale, to essentially leverage some of these new technologies that are coming forth.

但同時，我們今天的產能其實比很長一段時間以來都要高。您肯定知道，過去幾年我們並沒有進行過太多的收購。事實上，我們確實沒有做過任何事。因此，今天我們作為一個組織實際上擁有更多的頻寬來承擔這些專案。作為一家公司，我們所做的事情之一就是始終前瞻性地尋找機會，以便做得更好、提高效率、消除冗餘、擴大規模，並充分利用正在出現的一些新技術。

And so we, today, as an organization, as a leadership team, all agree that there's probably no better time than right now to take on these projects, to improve our cost position and really set the company up for margin expansion for the next 3 years on top of the growth that we're going to see as a business. So lots of confidence today in our ability to take it on, and we have plenty of capacity as an organization to do so.

因此，今天我們作為一個組織、作為一個領導團隊，一致認為現在可能是開展這些專案的最佳時機，可以改善我們的成本狀況，並在業務成長的基礎上，真正為公司未來 3 年的利潤率擴大做好準備。因此，我們今天對於我們承擔這項任務的能力充滿信心，而且我們作為一個組織也有足夠的能力去做到這一點。

And what I would just add, Jeff, is add -- I think it would actually be riskier if we didn't do it. Because the foundation of the restructuring program is simplification as well an elimination of waste, which frees up human resource time to focus on the shift that we've been making into growth. So it actually would be riskier if we didn't do it, and it's great to lean forward and execute it at a time of strength.

傑夫，我想補充的是——我認為如果我們不這樣做的話，風險實際上會更大。因為重組計劃的基礎是簡化和消除浪費，這可以釋放人力資源的時間來專注於我們一直在進行的成長轉變。所以如果我們不這麼做的話，風險其實會更大，在實力雄厚的時候傾身去做這件事情是很好的。

Yes. That's a great point. I said that in my outbound commentary, this notion that essentially, we're freeing up time in our operations so that they can focus on growth and improving our operational execution, while some of our corporate teams take on a number of these support services. So you're absolutely right, Tom. Thanks for that amplification.

是的。這是一個很好的觀點。我在我的外向評論中說過，從本質上講，我們正在釋放營運時間，以便他們能夠專注於成長和改善我們的營運執行，而我們的一些公司團隊則承擔了一些支援服務。所以你完全正確，湯姆。謝謝你的詳述。

Unrelated question, just on backlog. Obviously, it does provide a lot of visibility and comfort. But we've seen a couple of companies with big backlogs also have sales disappointments, because the backlog is big, but it's not fungible, right? Air pockets develop here and there.

不相關的問題，只是積壓問題。顯然，它確實提供了很大的可視性和舒適度。但我們看到一些擁有大量積壓訂單的公司也出現銷售不佳的情況，因為積壓訂單量很大，但又是不可替代的，對嗎？到處都會出現氣穴。

Maybe just kind of address that risk. Do you kind of see anything that you need to kind of navigate through from a timing standpoint, particularly given the way you illustrated the long kind of order conversion cycle on some of those project stuff that's in the backlog?

也許只是解決這種風險。從時間角度來看，您是否認為需要處理一些問題，特別是考慮到您所說明的積壓項目中某些項目的訂單轉換週期很長？

Yes, no, I appreciate that question, Jeff, and understand the nature of it. But I can just tell you, based upon at least what we're seeing and the nature of our backlog today and as I'm sure you're well aware of that, we, as Eaton and really, quite frankly, as an industry, we've had more demand than we've had capacity largely over the last couple of years.

是的，不，傑夫，我很欣賞這個問題，並且了解它的本質。但我可以告訴你，至少根據我們所看到的情況和我們今天積壓訂單的性質，我相信你很清楚這一點，作為伊頓，坦率地說，作為一個行業，在過去幾年裡，我們的需求已經超過了我們的產能。

And so we think we have plenty of ability to accelerate, decelerate if necessary, backlog conversion to essentially keep the top line growing at an attractive rate in the event that you have some sort of order that would be moving in or out or some sort of lack of linearity in the order book itself. And so not a concern. We've not seen it to date. As we look at kind of the stratification of the backlog and when orders are due, we don't have that concern.

因此，我們認為，如果您有某種訂單進出或訂單簿本身缺乏線性，我們有足夠的能力加速（必要時減速）積壓轉換，從而基本上保持營收以有吸引力的速度增長。所以不用擔心。我們至今還沒有看到它。當我們查看積壓訂單的分層情況以及訂單到期時間時，我們並不擔心。

And the next question is from Andrew Obin from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯‧奧賓 (Andrew Obin)。

Seems like you guys are doing great, yes. Just a different way of asking, I guess, Jeff's question. Can you just talk -- you mentioned capacity additions. Can you just -- and I appreciate that some of this is competitive. But what areas are you adding capacity? When will this capacity be available to really move the needle? And -- yes, and anything you're doing differently on geographies post the whole COVID experience?

是的，看起來你們做得很好。我想，這只是傑夫問題的另一種提問方式。您能談談嗎—您提到了產能增加。你能不能——我知道這其中有些是有競爭力的。但是您在哪些領域增加了產能？什麼時候才能具備這種能力並且真正起到推動作用？是的，在整個 COVID 經歷之後，您在地理位置上做了什麼不同的事情嗎？

Yes, no, appreciate the question, Andrew. And one of the things we tried to do in the last earnings call is add a little bit of color around this $1 billion of investment that we're putting in as a company to support growth. And I would tell you, it's really pretty broad-based.

是的，不，我很感謝你提出這個問題，安德魯。在上次收益電話會議上，我們嘗試做的一件事就是為我們公司為支持成長而投入的 10 億美元投資增添一些色彩。我想告訴你，它的影響範圍確實相當廣泛。

We talked about investments that we're making to support growth in utilities, in transformers, in voltage regulators and our line insulation and protection equipment. We talked about, obviously, the huge growth that we're seeing in data centers and growth in institutional markets and the investments that we're making there in low and medium voltage assemblies and switchboards and panel boards. We've had to make investments in our core component circle breaker capacity. And obviously, we're making big investments in eMobility as well. So I think it's actually fairly broad-based with respect to the product lines.

我們討論了為支援公用事業、變壓器、電壓調節器以及線路絕緣和保護設備的發展而進行的投資。顯然，我們談到了資料中心和機構市場的巨大成長，以及我們在低壓和中壓組件、配電盤和麵板方面所做的投資。我們必須對我們的核心零件斷圈機產能進行投資。顯然，我們也在對電動車領域進行大量投資。所以我認為就產品線而言它實際上是相當廣泛的。

As it relates to the geography, we're clearly seeing much bigger investments, much faster growth in the Americas, and that's really where the -- principally a lot of these big investments have gone.

從地理位置來看，我們清楚看到美洲地區的投資規模更大、成長速度更快，而美洲地區也是大部分大額投資的主要流向。

But we -- to your question about timing, what we're assuming in terms of our own capacity, industry capacity is another issue as we work through suppliers and some of the others in the value chain. But we think a lot of this capacity for us begins to phase in this year. And so sometime between, let's say, the second quarter and the end of the year when we'll have most of our investments done -- and it certainly gives us the capacity to do more, assuming there aren't other bottlenecks and restrictions, whether it be labor or others in the value chain.

但是，對於你關於時間的問題，我們在自身產能方面的假設，產業產能是另一個問題，因為我們要透過供應商和價值鏈中的其他一些人來處理。但我們認為，我們今年將開始逐步實現這一產能。因此，比如說，在第二季度和年底之間的某個時候，我們將完成大部分投資——這肯定使我們有能力做更多的事情，假設沒有其他瓶頸和限制，無論是勞動力還是價值鏈中的其他因素。

Got you. And then just a follow-up, I guess, naturally builds on the first answer. In terms of your supply chain, what are the biggest challenges are you still experiencing? And what has gotten better over the past 3, 6 months? And what's still a problem?

明白了。然後我想，後續的問題自然會基於第一個答案。就您的供應鏈而言，您目前面臨的最大挑戰是什麼？在過去 3 至 6 個月裡，哪些方面有所改善？還有什麼問題？

Yes. What I would tell you, in many ways, Andrew, we're really back to where we've been historically, and we've never lived in a world where we didn't have the intermittent supply chain issues. So I would say, by and large, we've seen fairly significant progress every place.

是的。我想告訴你的是，安德魯，在很多方面，我們實際上又回到了歷史狀態，我們從未生活在一個沒有間歇性供應鏈問題的世界。因此我想說，總的來說，我們在各個地方都看到了相當顯著的進展。

It used to be that electronics were a major bottleneck and issue. Most of those issues are now behind us. We still have pockets of individual challenges in various suppliers with various components. But I would say today, it is really more episodic and unique than it is, I'd say, a pattern or a broader, let's say, capacity constraint in a particular commodity.

電子產品曾經是一個主要的瓶頸和問題。如今，大多數這些問題都已成為過去。我們仍面臨來自不同供應商和不同零件的個別挑戰。但我今天要說的是，它實際上更具偶然性和獨特性，而非某種模式，或者說是更廣泛的現象，例如某種特定商品的產能限制。

And so we, like in our own investments, we've been working hard to build capacity internally. We've also been working with our suppliers, giving them lead time and visibility into our growth over the next multiple years to ensure that they, too, are making investments in capacity to keep up with our demand. And so I would say today, it's largely the episodic issue as opposed to a systemic issue.

因此，就像我們自己的投資一樣，我們一直在努力建立內部能力。我們也一直與供應商合作，為他們提供準備時間和未來幾年我們發展的可見性，以確保他們也在投資產能以滿足我們的需求。因此我今天要說，這在很大程度上是一個偶發性問題，而不是系統性問題。

Just to jump in, Andrew, on the last point. I think that's really been key, partnering with the suppliers so we can grow together with them. And we've gotten much more efficient, probably as a result of the pandemic, understanding what we need on a go-forward demand basis.

安德魯，我來談談最後一點。我認為這是關鍵，與供應商合作以便我們能夠與他們共同成長。可能是由於這場疫情，我們的效率提高了許多，我們了解了未來需求的基礎之上我們需要什麼。

Tom, you'll be missed, and congratulations.

湯姆，我們會想念你的，恭喜你。

Our next question is from Chris Snyder from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的克里斯·史奈德。

So obviously, mega projects have become a big driver of the Eaton story and an important driver of the outlook, so I appreciate all the information you guys provided there. But if we step back and look -- and even look through the low single-digit mega project tailwind in 2023, I think you said it was 3% of total of Americas revenue, organic growth has still grown at a double-digit rate for the last 8 quarters.

因此，顯然，大型專案已成為伊頓故事的主要推動力，也是前景的重要推動力，因此我感謝你們提供的所有資訊。但如果我們退一步來看——甚至看一下 2023 年低個位數的大型項目順風，我想你說它占美國總收入的 3%，有機增長在過去 8 個季度仍然以兩位數的速度增長。

Can you just talk about why underlying demand has been so strong? Because I think when most investors see the huge growth numbers, everyone just assumes it's the mega project opportunity already playing out.

您能談談為什麼潛在需求如此強勁嗎？因為我認為，當大多數投資者看到巨大的成長數字時，每個人都只是認為這是一個已經顯現的大型專案機會。

No, I appreciate the question. And I think I'd say long before we were talking about mega projects, we were talking about secular growth drivers we were talking about energy transition. We were talking about the electrification of the economy. We were talking about digitalization.

不，我很感謝你提出這個問題。我想說，早在我們談論大型專案之前，我們就在談論長期成長動力，談論能源轉型。我們正在討論經濟電氣化。我們正在談論數位化。

You think about -- today, mega projects deal with these big projects above $1 billion announcements, but we've seen very similar growth in projects that are well below the $1 billion threshold and so reindustrialization of the U.S. and other markets where today, you have production moving back in and big investments taking place. And so the trends are much broader than mega projects.

想想看——今天，大型項目涉及這些宣布的價值超過 10 億美元的大項目，但我們已經看到，價值遠低於 10 億美元門檻的項目也出現了非常相似的增長，因此，美國和其他市場的再工業化今天正在重新開始，生產正在重新回流，大規模的投資正在進行中。因此，趨勢比大型專案更為廣泛。

The reason we've put this emphasis on mega projects is because it's a great indicator of the multiyear runway that we have and a chance to give the investor community visibility into the outlook over multiple years. But you're absolutely right. We're seeing broad-based growth in our business much beyond this mega project emphasis, but the mega projects will become a bigger piece of our future. That's why we talked about 3% of sales, 6% of orders, 16% of negotiations, that continues to be a tailwind, a real impetus for future growth.

我們之所以如此重視大型項目，是因為它是我們多年發展歷程的一個很好的指標，也是一個讓投資者群體了解多年前景的機會。但你完全正確。我們看到，我們的業務正在廣泛地成長，遠遠超出這個大型專案的重點，但大型專案將成為我們未來更大的一部分。這就是為什麼我們談論 3% 的銷售額、6% 的訂單、16% 的談判，這將繼續成為順風，成為未來成長的真正動力。

Yes. And Chris, if I could just throw in on that. We talked about in the prepared remarks at a high level, our major projects, our large project negotiations, and that's much less than these mega projects. And just some of the numbers, if you look at year-over-year for data centers growing over 160% in terms of negotiation volume; institutions over 40%; government and health care over, 30%. So it's really, really broad-based, as Craig says. The mega projects, if you like, just really put the cherry on top and give us just a long runway going forward.

是的。克里斯，我可以補充一下嗎？我們在高層的準備好的發言中談到了我們的主要項目、我們的大型項目談判，但這比這些大型項目要少得多。以下僅列舉一些數據，如果您查看資料中心的談判量年增超過 160％；機構超過40%；政府和醫療保健領域則佔30%。正如克雷格所說，它確實具有非常廣泛的基礎。如果你願意的話，大型項目實際上是錦上添花，為我們前進提供了漫長的跑道。

Yes, no, absolutely. I appreciate the durability and sustainability that it brings. And then just kind of on that same topic, my back-of-the-envelope math suggests that this ramp in mega projects at least drives about a $25 billion incremental market opportunity over the next few years. So a pretty massive ramp for an industry that is already having trouble keeping up with demand. So I guess the question is, do you see a pathway forward for the industry to meet this demand? And how does that impact your multiyear expectations for our ability to push price and drive margins higher?

是的，絕對不是。我欣賞它帶來的耐用性和永續性。然後，就同一主題而言，我的粗略計算表明，大型專案的增加至少會在未來幾年帶來約 250 億美元的增量市場機會。對於一個已經難以滿足需求的產業來說，這是一個相當大的成長。所以我想問題是，您是否看到了該行業滿足這一需求的途徑？這對您多年預期我們提高價格和利潤率的能力有何影響？

Yes. I think your back-of-the-envelope math is pretty good, actually. It does create a very large growth opportunity for the electrical industry. And I would say to this question around whether or not the industry is going to have enough capacity and bandwidth to capture all of these opportunities, I think one of the restrictions today on growth in general is the fact that there is not enough capacity in the industry, which is why we're making fairly sizable investments in our own manufacturing facilities and working with our suppliers to do the same, so that we can try to get out in front of some of this demand and continue to grow the company.

是的。實際上，我認為你的粗略計算相當不錯。這確實為電氣行業創造了非常大的成長機會。對於這個行業是否有足夠的產能和頻寬來抓住所有這些機會的問題，我想，目前成長面臨的一個普遍限制就是行業產能不足，這就是為什麼我們要對自己的製造設施進行相當大的投資，並與我們的供應商合作做同樣的事情，這樣我們就可以努力滿足部分需求，繼續發展公司。

And then on top of that, perhaps the greatest limiter on growth may be the labor constraint in terms of finding enough skilled tradespeople to deal with the significant backlog of demand. And so what we think fundamentally is going to happen is that the growth will be there, but the cycle will be extended because we simply will not have enough capacity and labor to deal with all the demand in the time frame in which is requested. And so the cycle will simply be expanded out multiple years beyond where it normally would reside.

除此之外，也許成長的最大限制因素是勞動力限制，即難以找到足夠的熟練工匠來滿足大量積壓的需求。因此，我們認為從根本上將會發生的情況是，成長將會存在，但週期將會延長，因為我們根本沒有足夠的產能和勞動力來在要求的時間內滿足所有需求。因此，該週期將會比其正常週期延長數年。

The next question is from the line of Steve Tusa from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

Tom, congrats on going out with a bang here. Great, great results. Just the pricing dynamics, what are you guys assuming for -- in your electrical businesses for price roughly in '24 embedded in your guidance?

湯姆，恭喜你在這裡取得了圓滿成功。太棒了，非常好的結果。僅就定價動態而言，你們對電氣業務的指導中 24 年的價格大致有何假設？

Yes, Steve, as you probably are aware, we don't provide specific price guidance. We don't separate price and volume. I will tell you that on a relative basis, when you compare, let's say, 2024 with 2023 and 2022, that price will contribute a much smaller piece of our growth than volume will. And that's -- so we're going to be probably back to more of a historical level of price realization in terms of 2024. And that's really a function of the fact that we're not seeing inflation.

是的，史蒂夫，您可能知道，我們不提供具體的價格指導。我們不區分價格和數量。我會告訴你，相對而言，當你比較 2024 年與 2023 年和 2022 年時，價格對我們成長的貢獻將比銷量小得多。這就是說——到 2024 年，我們可能會回到歷史價格水平。

We had to essentially work the price lever fairly significantly over the last couple of years as we dealt with this inflation that was in the system. Now we still have some inflation principally on the labor side. So we will still get price, but its contributions to our growth will be significantly less than it had been in prior years.

過去幾年來，為了因應體系內的通貨膨脹，我們不得不大幅運用價格槓桿。現在我們仍然有一些通貨膨脹，主要集中在勞動力方面。因此，我們仍然會獲得價格，但其對我們成長的貢獻將明顯低於前幾年。

Right. And I guess just on the cash flow statement, I think like -- I'm not sure if I'm seeing this right, but $2 billion of share repo in '24. I mean I think that's a pretty decent-sized number. Anything going on specifically there?

正確的。我想，僅在現金流量表上，我想——我不確定我是否看得正確，但 24 年的股票回購金額為 20 億美元。我的意思是，我認為這是一個相當可觀的數字。那裡具體發生什麼事了嗎？

IT's $2 billion at the midpoint -- okay, go ahead, Tom.

中間值是 20 億美元 — — 好的，繼續，湯姆。

Yes, no, we finished 2023 with $2.6 billion in cash. And given how we're guiding, and given how we are doing a better job of managing working capital, given the supply chain constraints are going away, we're going to have a very good year of generating cash in 2024. So we go to our capital allocation tenants, and we're very clear, we're not going to collect cash on the balance sheet. So at the midpoint, we've got $2 billion. As was said in the prepared remarks, though, this gives us plenty of dry powder to do strategic M&A., so even with that $2 billion.

是的，不是，到 2023 年，我們的現金餘額為 26 億美元。考慮到我們的指導方針，考慮到我們在營運資本管理方面做得更好，考慮到供應鏈限制正在消失，我們將在 2024 年迎來非常好的現金創造年。因此，中間值是 20 億美元。不過，正如在準備好的評論中所說，這為我們進行了策略併購提供了充足的資金，即使只有 20 億美元。

And the final thing I would end with is our net leverage on the balance sheet, which you probably know, Steve, is 1.3. So we've got a very strong balance sheet, just a ton of flexibility from a capital allocation perspective.

最後我想說的是我們的資產負債表上的淨槓桿率，史蒂夫，你可能知道，是 1.3。因此，我們的資產負債表非常強勁，從資本配置的角度來看具有很大的靈活性。

Right. So it's a 2% lift from share count in general embedded in the guidance for EPS growth-ish?

正確的。那麼，每股盈餘成長預期中通常會包含 2% 的股票數量成長嗎？

Relatively minor, a couple of pennies versus consensus, yes.

相對較小，與共識相比只有幾分錢，是的。

Our next question is from the line of Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的喬·里奇。

So I think Chris kind of touched on this in his question, but maybe to ask it more explicitly, as you think about that first $1 billion plus in mega projects that you've won, just what's the margin profile of those wins and how we should be thinking about that ultimately materializing in the P&L?

所以我認為克里斯在他的問題中提到了這一點，但也許可以更明確地問一下，當你想到你贏得的第一個 10 億美元以上的大型項目時，這些勝利的利潤狀況是怎樣的，我們應該如何考慮最終在損益表中實現這一點？

Yes. I would say that the margin profile on these mega projects is not going to be terribly different than the margin profile in the underlying business. It's -- these -- we are in a position, as you can imagine, when your capacity constraint to be selective around where you win. And so we would not expect -- even though they're big projects and oftentimes you find a large project, margins take a bit of a haircut, we should -- you should not expect that as these mega projects translate into revenue.

是的。我想說的是，這些大型專案的利潤狀況與基礎業務的利潤狀況不會太大差異。你可以想像，當你的能力受到限制時，我們處於可以選擇獲勝地點的位置。因此，我們不會期望——即使它們是大項目，而且你經常會發現一個大項目，利潤率會有所下降，我們應該——你不應該期望這些大型項目會轉化為收入。

Got it. That's great to hear, Craig. And then I guess, look, the funnel keeps on growing now for the last couple of quarters at a pretty material rate. There's a lot of concern with the election coming that perhaps this first wave of projects that have broken ground continues, but maybe you get a stall on the second -- in the second wave. Just any thoughts around that? I know you kind of touched on the potential for labor constraints, but I'm really more -- any other thoughts that you would have on just continuing to grow the funnel and then making sure that, that actually -- we'll actually see that ultimately in your outlook?

知道了。很高興聽到這個消息，克雷格。然後我想，看，在過去幾個季度裡，漏斗繼續以相當快的速度成長。隨著選舉的臨近，許多人擔心第一波已經破土動工的計畫可能會繼續進行，而第二波計畫可能會陷入停滯。對此有什麼想法嗎？我知道您提到了勞動力限制的可能性，但我更想知道的是——您還有什麼其他想法，例如繼續擴大管道，然後確保我們最終會在您的展望中看到這一點？

Yes, no, I appreciate the question and the concern. I mean given the upcoming elections and in many ways, it's kind of an unknowable in terms of how the election is going to turn out. And then, quite frankly, even with the change in the administration, difficult to know what position they will take with respect to a lot of the stimulus spending that is essentially underlying and supporting these mega projects.

是的，不，我很感謝你的提問和關心。我的意思是，考慮到即將舉行的選舉，從許多方面來看，選舉結果如何都是不可知的。坦白說，即使政府發生了變化，也很難知道他們會對這些大型計畫背後的支撐性刺激支出採取什麼立場。

And I will tell you, what gives us a fairly high level of confidence that it's not going to change materially, is that a lot of these projects are going into red states. And so despite what may happen kind of on the political front, the benefactor of a lot of these projects are actually those red states. And so we'll have to wait and see how it all plays.

我要告訴你們的是，讓我們有相當高的信心相信它不會發生實質變化的原因是，許多這些項目都進入了紅州。因此，不管政治方面可能發生什麼變化，許多這些計畫的受益者實際上是那些紅州。因此，我們還需拭目以待，看看事情將如何發展。

And we don't think today it's going to have a material impact. Today, we are looking at more demand than we have capacity to serve. So even if there was a little bit of a give-back, the business is still in great shape and to support the long-term growth assumptions for the company. But in many ways, it's kind of the unknowable. We just don't know how the election is going to unfold and then what happens afterwards.

我們認為今天它不會產生實質影響。今天，我們面臨的需求已經超越了我們的服務能力。因此，即使有一點損失，業務仍然處於良好狀態並支持公司的長期成長假設。但在很多方面，這都是不可知的。我們只是不知道選舉將如何展開，以及隨後會發生什麼。

The next question is from Julian Mitchell from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Thanks a lot, Tom, for all the help. Maybe just a first question would be around, when you think about sort of the mega projects and the impact on North America orders, so you've had a sort of a book-to-bill well over 1x in 2023 even with those trading 12-month orders being down somewhat off the high base.

非常感謝湯姆的幫助。也許第一個問題是，當您考慮大型專案及其對北美訂單的影響時，即使 12 個月訂單的交易量較高基數有所下降，2023 年的訂單出貨比也會遠超 1 倍。

When you look at 2024, is it sort of a similar construct where I suppose you could have orders down, but the book-to-bill still over 1x just because of the capacity constraints?

當您展望 2024 年時，是否會出現類似的情況，我認為您的訂單可能會減少，但由於產能限制，訂單出貨比仍超過 1 倍？

And then more broadly, any concerns that you and your peers collectively are adding maybe too much capacity in electrical output?

然後更廣泛地說，是否擔心您和您的同事集體增加的電力輸出能力可能太多？

Yes, no, appreciate the question, Julian. And it's certainly -- it's one of the things that we spend a lot of time thinking about as well in terms of what will the tenor of 2024 would look like. But I think the short answer to the question is, yes. I mean it's very much possible that you could continue to see a moderation of orders and a book-to-bill and a total backlog that doesn't change.

是的，不，我很感謝你提出這個問題，朱利安。當然，這也是我們花很多時間思考 2024 年基調會是什麼樣的事情之一。但我認為，這個問題的簡短答案是肯定的。我的意思是，你很可能會繼續看到訂單量、訂單出貨比和總積壓訂單量不變的現象。

In fact, when we came into 2023, we actually expected to be able to eat into the backlog, and the backlog grew by some 15%. And so the industry continues to be constrained. And obviously -- but for industry constraints, we would post bigger growth numbers than we provided in the guidance. The demand is there to grow faster than 7.5% that we've talked about as the midpoint of our guidance. So that absolutely is possible that you could essentially -- orders could moderate in your backlog to continue to be record highs or continue to grow.

事實上，當我們進入 2023 年時，我們實際上預計能夠消化積壓訂單，而積壓訂單增加了約 15%。因此該行業繼續受到限制。顯然，如果不是因為行業限制，我們公佈的成長數字將比預期的更高。需求成長速度將超過我們預期的中位數 7.5%。因此，這絕對是可能的，基本上，訂單可能會減緩，積壓訂單可能會繼續保持歷史新高或繼續增長。

Yes. And just to add a little bit more color to that. And Julian, we talked about this in previous calls and tried to put it in the prepared remarks, but I think it's very important for everyone on the call. We have modeled year-over-year order decline, meaningful order decline. And in those scenarios, given our backlog coverage, as we said in the prepared remarks, we are able to have robust organic growth well into 2025. So that gives us great confidence that even if year-over-year orders continue to decline in a meaningful way, we've still got a good runway.

是的。只是為了給它添加一點點色彩。朱利安，我們在之前的電話會議中討論過這個問題，並試圖將其寫在準備好的發言中，但我認為這對電話會議中的每個人來說都非常重要。我們已經模擬了同比訂單下降和有意義的訂單下降。在這些情況下，考慮到我們的積壓訂單覆蓋率，正如我們在準備好的評論中所說的那樣，我們能夠在 2025 年實現強勁的有機增長。

That's helpful. And then just a quick follow-up. Maybe switching to eMobility. You'd raised that medium-term revenue guide a few months back. The noise or the news in the EV world is sort of very, very uneven. So maybe just sort of tell us how you see it for the growth rates of that business. We can see a very high growth rate dialed in for eMobility this year. Maybe just any sort of perspectives on that and maybe how you're outperforming the industry.

這很有幫助。然後只是快速的跟進。或許可以轉向 eMobility。幾個月前你就提高了中期收入指南。電動車領域的噪音或新聞非常非常不均衡。因此，您能否告訴我們您如何看待該業務的成長率。我們可以看到今年 eMobility 的成長率非常高。也許只是對此的任何看法，也許是您如何超越行業。

Yes. Appreciate the question, Julian. And as you know, as we talked on our guidance, we're anticipating 30% growth in our eMobility business. And I can tell you that 30% number is today dialed back from what our customers are asking us for. We do recognize that the industry itself has gone through a little bit of a, I'd say, a wake-up call with respect to the underlying demand for EVs.

是的。非常感謝您的提問，朱利安。正如您所知，正如我們在指導中所討論的那樣，我們預計電動車業務將成長 30%。我可以告訴你們，今天我們的客戶所要求的數字已經減少了 30%。我們確實認識到，我認為，就電動車的潛在需求而言，該行業本身已經經歷了一些警鐘。

By the way, still great demand, still good growth. Some 20%, I think, in the fourth quarter for us. But overall, a slower rate of growth than perhaps what people were anticipating maybe 12 months ago. So we think the industry will continue to grow and grow nicely.

順便說一句，需求仍然很大，成長仍然良好。我認為，第四季我們的增幅將達到 20% 左右。但總體而言，成長速度可能比人們 12 個月前的預期要慢。因此我們認為該行業將繼續成長並保持良好的成長勢頭。

And what we try to do as we build our own plans and our guidance is to make sure we're appropriately hedged back to ensure that we're able to deliver our commitments. But at the same time, we have the flexibility to respond in the event that some of these customer forecasts and their outlooks are actually -- they actually come to fruition. So yes, we took about $1.5 billion, 11% return on sales. We are absolutely still -- see line of sight and committed to those goals, and our forecasts have not changed.

在製定我們自己的計劃和指導時，我們試圖做的是確保我們得到適當的對沖，以確保我們能夠履行承諾。但同時，如果這些客戶的預測和展望實際上成為現實，我們也可以靈活地做出反應。所以是的，我們獲得了大約 15 億美元，銷售回報率為 11%。我們絕對靜止——看清視線並致力於實現這些目標，我們的預測沒有改變。

Yes. And just one other thing I would add, Julian, and taking you back to the prepared remarks. In eMobility, the market grew 7%, we grew 18%. So we're winning some good business there.

是的。朱利安，我只想補充一點，然後帶你回到準備好的演講。在電動車領域，市場成長了 7%，我們成長了 18%。因此我們在那裡贏得了一些好生意。

Yes. And to your point, Tom, it really is. And I think this was maybe your question, Julian, as well. It really is platform-specific. And our growth really comes from the launching of new eMobility platforms that we have content on. And that's why our growth, we think will clearly be well above the industry's growth rate.

是的。正如你所說，湯姆，事實確實如此。我認為這也許也是你的問題，朱利安。它確實是特定於平台的。我們的成長其實來自於推出包含我們內容的新型 eMobility 平台。這就是為什麼我們認為我們的成長將明顯高於行業成長率。

Our next question comes from Steve Volkmann from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Steve Volkmann。

Great. I want to go back to the cost-cutting program. The $325 million of benefits in 2027, should we think of that as kind of net in terms of the margin? Or will you have some increased investments that offset some of that?

偉大的。我想回到削減成本計劃。 2027 年的 3.25 億美元福利，我們是否應該將其視為利潤的淨額？或者您會增加一些投資來抵消部分損失？

No, I mean the way we talk about it, we're going to spend $375 million of restructuring to deliver $325 million of mature year benefits. And that is the way you should think about it. We'll spend those restructuring dollars over the next few years. And we had embedded as we talked about, in our 2024 guidance, $175 million of spending and $50 million of benefits, but those benefits will fall through to the bottom line with -- offsetting expenses.

不，我的意思是，根據我們的說法，我們將花費 3.75 億美元進行重組，以提供 3.25 億美元的成熟年度福利。您應該這樣思考這個問題。我們將在未來幾年內花掉這些重組資金。正如我們所討論的，我們在 2024 年指引中嵌入了 1.75 億美元的支出和 5000 萬美元的福利，但這些福利將透過抵銷費用而計入底線。

Yes. And I was just going to say, and the cash associated with it is in our cash guidance as well.

是的。我剛才要說的是，與此相關的現金也在我們的現金指引中。

Understood. So my guess is it's probably a little more Europe-centric since these things tend to be, but any guidance on sort of where we'll see these results most?

明白了。因此我的猜測是，它可能更加以歐洲為中心，因為這些事情往往如此，但是有什麼指導可以指導我們在哪裡最常看到這些結果嗎？

Yes, no, I appreciate the question. I think you can just think about it, it's going to be pretty widespread. And you can think about the total kind of allocation of the benefits being pretty much aligned with the company, 2/3 will be in Electrical, 1/3 will be in Industrial. We'll be focused on taking out rooftops in the company, driving some shared services, leveraging digital. But a lot of these benefits will really cut across the company.

是的，我很感謝你提出這個問題。我想您只需想一下，它將會變得相當普遍。你可以想想福利的總體分配與公司基本一致，2/3 將用於電氣行業，1/3 將用於工業行業。我們將專注於拆除公司的屋頂、推動一些共享服務、利用數位技術。但其中許多福利確實會影響整個公司。

And what I would also say is you've described it as cost cutting, and there is an element of that. But I really want to come back to it's a smarter way of doing business as well.

我還想說的是，你將其描述為削減成本，確實有這樣的因素。但我確實想回到過去，這也是一種更明智的經營方式。

I mean we've got a number of sites. We're a very complex organization with 5 reportable segments. And we've got opportunities with our central functions to be more efficient and take work off of the business units and allow opportunity cost for leveraging resources, leveraging talent, leveraging capital as well. So there's -- it's not just pure cost cutting. It's a smarter, more efficient way of doing business as well.

我的意思是我們有多個站點。我們是一個非常複雜的組織，有 5 個可報告的部門。我們有機會透過中央職能提高效率，減輕業務部門的工作負擔，並提供利用資源、利用人才和利用資本的機會成本。所以——這不僅僅是純粹的成本削減。這也是一種更有智慧、更有效率的經營方式。

And it's the way we help fund the growth, right? It's the way we're funding increases in investments, in R&D and other things that we need to do to grow the company.

這是我們幫助資助成長的方式，對嗎？這是我們為增加投資、研發和其他公司發展所需事項提供資金的方式。

The next question is from Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。

So to cover a little ground, but coming back to this capacity issue -- or capacity expansions. I mean the 9% to 11% growth in the Americas, Craig, I mean, it feels like given the backlog builds, obviously, orders continue to add to that. It feels like that could be relatively conservative.

為了涵蓋一些內容，我們回到產能問題，或產能擴張問題。克雷格，我的意思是美洲的成長率為 9% 到 11%，我覺得考慮到積壓訂單的增加，訂單顯然會繼續增加。感覺這可能相對保守。

So just wondering if there's any kind of capacity constraints that are gating that growth forecast? And are you assuming there's going to be some backlog burn or conversion as we go through the year? Any sense there?

所以我只是想知道是否存在某種產能限制來阻礙這個成長預測？您是否認為，在這一年中，會出現一些積壓訂單的消耗或轉換？有道理嗎？

Yes, no. And I think I had mentioned also in my commentary, Nigel, that there's certainly enough demand in the marketplace to post higher growth than we're reflecting in our guidance. And we're making investments to eliminate capacity bottlenecks. And we think by the time we get to the end of the year, we'll be in great shape.

是、不是。奈傑爾，我想我在評論中也提到過，市場上肯定有足夠的需求來實現比我們預期更高的成長。我們正在進行投資以消除產能瓶頸。我們認為，到今年年底，我們的狀態將會非常好。

But as you know, we're participating in an industry where you have a lot of players in the value chain where you have fairly sizable labor constraints around skilled trades. And so I do think it's going to be a governor on growth based upon these factors that prevents us and the industry from growing much faster than that. You think about this 9% to 11%, this is on top of some 30% plus growth over the last 2 years.

但如你所知，我們所處的產業在價值鏈中擁有眾多參與者，而技術工種的勞動力限制相當大。因此，我確實認為，基於這些因素，成長將受到限制，從而阻止我們和整個行業以更快的速度成長。想想這個 9% 到 11% 的成長，這是在過去兩年 30% 以上的成長之上的。

And so I would say that today, we'll see what happens with in terms of the backlog growth and how much the backlog we can burn or can't. Once again, difficult to really say, there's a lot of variables in that. Once again, we thought we were going to burn backlog in 2023, and we actually increased it, right, some 15%. So the market continues to perform even better than what we imagined. But there are very real capacity constraints in the industry that we think become the governor around this 9% to 11% growth in our Electrical business in the Americas.

因此，我想說，今天，我們將看看積壓訂單的成長情況，以及我們能夠或不能消耗多少積壓訂單。再次強調，這確實很難說，因為其中有許多變數。再一次，我們以為我們會在 2023 年解決積壓問題，但實際上我們將其增加了，大約 15%。因此，市場的表現繼續好於我們的想像。但我們認為，產業確實存在產能限制，這成為限制我們美洲電氣業務成長 9% 至 11% 的決定因素。

Yes, yes. I appreciate that. And then it just feels like data center is the -- obviously, that's probably going to be your strongest growth vertical in '24. And I think you mentioned negotiations up 160% off a pretty high base. So just thinking about capacity in that single end market. I mean is that a concern? And does the $1 billion you put in, does that [cover] the kind of growth that we should see coming through in '24, '25 then?

是的，是的。我很感激。然後感覺資料中心是—顯然，這可能是您'24年最強勁的成長垂直領域。我記得您提到過，談判在相當高的基礎上上漲了 160%。因此，只考慮單一終端市場的容量。我的意思是這是一個值得擔心的問題嗎？那麼，您投入的 10 億美元是否可以滿足我們在 2024 年和 2025 年應該看到的成長需求？

Yes, no, data centers will certainly be a very strong growth market for us in 2024 as well into 2025. We talked about in terms of our own forecast for the industry, we said the data center market, we think, grows at a compound growth rate of some 16% over the next 5 years or so. And that is certainly more than supported by orders. We grew from 20% in Q4. We -- in revenue, orders in the rolling 12 were up 30%. Negotiations were a lot more than that.

是的，資料中心肯定會成為我們在 2024 年和 2025 年的一個非常強勁的成長市場。這肯定比訂單支援的要多。我們的成長率比第四季提高了 20%。在我們的收入方面，連續 12 個月的訂單成長了 30%。談判遠不止這些。

So we continue to see just an acceleration in the data center market in terms of rate of growth. And once again, because this industry, too, is capacity constrained, is labor constrained, we think, which ultimately ended up happening, is the -- as a growth cycle, that just extends for what could be for a decade at very attractive growth levels.

因此，我們繼續看到資料中心市場的成長速度加速。再一次，由於這個產業也受到產能和勞動力的限制，我們認為，最終會出現的成長週期將會持續十年，並且保持非常有吸引力的成長水準。

Yes. Exactly. That's a long time. And '24, do you think '24 will be in that 20% there or even better?

是的。確切地。那真是很長一段時間了。那麼 24，您認為 24 會達到那 20% 甚至更高嗎？

Yes. I mean we'll see. We're not providing guidance per se for individual end markets today, but you can certainly assume that within that 9% to 11%, that our assumption for data centers is going to be on the higher end of that.

是的。我的意思是我們拭目以待。我們今天不為單一終端市場提供指導，但你當然可以假設，在 9% 到 11% 的範圍內，我們對資料中心的假設將處於較高的水平。

Yes. Just to add, the chart for the end markets, we have data centers and distributed IT growing strong double digit. So -- and everything from an order perspective, as Craig said, points to very robust growth in 2024.

是的。補充一下，終端市場的圖表顯示，我們的資料中心和分散式 IT 都實現了強勁的兩位數成長。因此 — — 正如 Craig 所說，從訂單角度來看，一切都表明 2024 年的成長非常強勁。

Yes, it's vertical. Thanks, Tom, and congratulations.

是的，它是垂直的。謝謝，湯姆，恭喜你。

The next question is from Tim Thein from Citigroup.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Tim Thein。

Yes. Great. I'll just fire one in here. But I guess, to start, after spending some time with Mike Yelton, I guess, it was around this time last year, I guess, I can better understand why it was such a good move. But just on the -- on the mix in Electrical, I would guess just given the strength in these big projects that there has been a trend, I guess, as Americas comment. But you've seen kind of this continued shift from more of the growth coming from systems versus products.

是的。偉大的。我就在這裡開一槍。但我想，首先，在與麥克·耶爾頓相處了一段時間之後，我想，大概是去年這個時候，我想，我可以更好地理解為什麼這是一次很好的舉措。但就電氣組合而言，我猜想，鑑於這些大項目的優勢，已經出現了一種趨勢，正如美國所評論的那樣。但您已經看到這種持續的轉變，更多的成長來自於系統而非產品。

How do you -- in years' past, there's been times when that's given you challenges in terms of kind of managing the profitability of that. But I guess, maybe your outlook in terms of that mix dynamic in '24 and again, your confidence in terms of managing to the extent that continues, more of the growth coming from systems relative to products?

在過去的幾年裡，您曾面臨過管理獲利能力的挑戰。但我想，也許您對 24 年混合動態的展望，以及您對管理的信心會持續下去，更多的成長來自於系統而非產品？

Yes. And I appreciate the question. I know we kind of created this monster a little bit, but we're trying to get the investor community to move away from this systems versus product distinction. Because practically speaking, they're all connected. So any time you sell an electrical system, it encompasses all of our products and components.

是的。我很感謝你提出這個問題。我知道我們在某種程度上創造了這個怪物，但我們正試圖讓投資者群體擺脫這種系統與產品的區分。因為從實際角度來說，它們都是相互關聯的。因此，每當您銷售電氣系統時，它都包含我們所有的產品和組件。

And so for us, we really think about the right way to think about the company is to really take a look at the end markets that we laid out. We have data centers, utilities, industrial facilities, commercial facilities, and that will be perhaps the most informative way to think about the company in the context of where growth is going.

因此對我們來說，我們真正認為看待公司的正確方式是真正看看我們佈局的終端市場。我們擁有資料中心、公用設施、工業設施和商業設施，這也許是了解公司未來成長方向的最有益的方式。

And I can just tell you, in general, from a profitability standpoint today, there is not a significant difference today between the profitability of systems and the components that go into the system. So now there was a time inside the company back when, let's say, we were -- in the lighting business, for example. And lighting was considered a products business. It was a relatively large business with relatively lower margins than the rest of electrical.

我可以告訴你，總體來說，從今天的獲利能力的角度來看，系統的獲利能力和系統組件的獲利能力之間並沒有顯著的差異。所以現在，在公司內部有一段時間，比如說，我們從事照明業務。而照明被認為是一種產品業務。與其他電氣行業相比，該業務規模相對較大，但利潤率相對較低。

And it was a meaningful different perhaps held back by lighting that drove different profitability between the two. But today, we don't have a significant difference in profitability. And we really think the right way to think about the company is really the function of these end markets that we've laid out once again on Slide 16.

或許是照明因素阻礙了這種有意義的差異，導致了兩者之間的獲利能力差異。但今天，我們的獲利能力並沒有顯著差異。我們確實認為，思考公司的正確方式實際上是這些終端市場的功能，我們在第 16 頁上再次闡述了這一點。

Got it. Okay. Yes, yes, for sure. And real quick, Craig, on the Arrow piece within commercial, is there -- do you expect much difference in terms of the growth between OEM and aftermarket in '24? Or are those both similar projected growth rates?

知道了。好的。是的，是的，當然。克雷格，請簡單說一下 Arrow 在商業領域的表現，您預計 24 年 OEM 和售後市場之間的成長會有很大差異嗎？或者這兩個預期的成長率相似？

Yes, no, and it's an important question because, as you know, there is a very different profit profile in OE order versus an aftermarket order. Both will grow nicely in 2024. We do expect OE to grow slightly faster than aftermarket, which holds margins back a little bit, which is going to be reflected in our guidance. But we expect to see very strong growth in both commercial as well as the aftermarket piece of the business, the commercial OE and aftermarket.

是的，不是，這是一個重要的問題，因為如您所知，OE 訂單和售後訂單的利潤狀況非常不同。到 2024 年，兩者都將實現良好成長。但我們預期商業和售後市場業務、商業 OE 和售後市場都將實現非常強勁的成長。

And our next question is from Deane Dray from RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Deane Dray。

And congrats, Tom, best of luck. And for -- I don't know if you can parse this out, but is there any way you can frame your expectations on North America Electrical of what would be going through distribution versus direct ship? I'm not sure how precise you can get there, but any color would be helpful.

恭喜你，湯姆，祝你好運。我不知道您是否能分析清楚，但是您能否描述一下對北美電氣通過分銷還是直接運輸的預期？我不確定你能達到多精確的效果，但任何顏色都會有幫助。

Yes. I would say, Deane, that in North America specifically, a lot of what we do goes through distribution. And that number, order of magnitude, I think, is about 70% or so. So it's a fairly sizable piece.

是的。迪恩，我想說，特別是在北美，我們所做的許多工作都是透過分銷進行的。我認為，這個數字的數量級大約是 70% 左右。所以這是一個相當大的作品。

And as these mega projects continue to grow, as perhaps data centers, hyperscalers continue to grow, some of that tends to be perhaps more direct by virtue of the nature. But a lot of our business today those goes distribution, and our distributors are just -- I'd say -- I've always said, they're perhaps our greatest asset. We are committed to distribution. They add tremendous value. We have a very strong distribution network. So yes, it's one of the real assets of the company.

隨著這些大型專案的持續發展，隨著資料中心、超大規模資料中心的持續發展，其中一些趨勢可能會因為性質而變得更加直接。但如今我們的許多業務都與分銷有關，我們的分銷商——我想說——我一直說，他們也許是我們最大的財富。我們致力於分銷。它們增加了巨大的價值。我們擁有非常強大的分銷網絡。是的，這是公司的真正資產之一。

Great. And I don't think I heard the word destocking come up at all today. So -- and it did create a chuckle there. But is there any destocking, any pockets of it? You all seem to have steered clear of any of that over the past 4 months or 4 quarters, but just any color there would be helpful.

偉大的。我認為我今天根本沒有聽過“去庫存”這個詞。所以——這確實引起了一陣笑聲。但是否有去庫存的現象，是否有去庫存的環節？在過去的 4 個月或 4 個季度裡，你們似乎都避開了這些，但無論哪種顏色都會有幫助。

We did talk about a little bit of destocking that we saw in our European business, which, quite frankly, really began at the beginning of 2023. We started to see destocking in Europe specifically. Fortunately, the good news is that we're beyond that.

我們確實談到了我們在歐洲業務中看到的一些去庫存現象，坦白說，這實際上是從 2023 年初開始的。幸運的是，好消息是我們已經超越了這一點。

But in the Americas business, specifically, other than the oddball pockets of places, we've not really seen destocking in the Americas. And that's largely because these markets, as we talked about, continue to grow pretty dramatically. But we did have a little bit of it in Europe, but it's fortunately behind us now.

但具體到美洲業務，除了個別地區以外，我們並沒有真正看到美洲出現去庫存的情況。這主要是因為，正如我們之前所說，這些市場持續保持著迅猛的成長。但在歐洲我們確實遇到一些這樣的情況，不過幸運的是現在已經過去了。

And at this time, there are no further questions in queue. Mr. Jin, please go ahead with closing remarks.

目前，沒有其他問題需要回答。請金先生致結束語。

Okay. Thanks, guys. I know it's a busy day, and we do appreciate everybody's questions. As always, the IR team is available to address your follow-up calls. Have a good day. Thanks for joining us. Bye.

好的。謝謝大家。我知道今天很忙，我們非常感謝大家的提問。像往常一樣，IR 團隊隨時可以接聽您的後續電話。祝你有美好的一天。感謝您的加入。再見。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T teleconference. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與和使用 AT&T 電話會議。您現在可以斷開連線。