伊頓 (ETN) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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conference call. (Operator Instructions) And as a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Yan Jin, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

電話會議。 （操作員指示）謹此提醒，今天的會議正在錄音中。現在我想將會議交給主持人投資者關係高級副總裁顏進。請繼續。

Good morning. Thank you all for joining us for Eaton's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Calls. With me today are Craig Arnold, our Chairman and CEO; and Tom Okray, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

早安.感謝大家參加伊頓 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有我們的董事長兼執行長克雷格‧阿諾德 (Craig Arnold)；執行副總裁兼財務長 Tom Okray。

Our agenda today includes opening remarks by Craig, then he will turn it over to Tom, who will highlight the company performance in the third quarter. As we have done on our past calls, we'll be taking questions at end of Craig's closing commentary. The press release and the presentation we'll go through today have been posted on our website. This presentation, including adjusted earnings per share, adjusted free cash flow and other non-GAAP measures, they are reconciled in the appendix. A webcast of this call is accessible on our website and will be available for replay.

我們今天的議程包括克雷格的開場白，然後他將把它交給湯姆，湯姆將重點介紹公司第三季的業績。正如我們在過去的電話會議中所做的那樣，我們將在克雷格的閉幕評論結束時回答問題。我們今天要討論的新聞稿和簡報已發佈在我們的網站上。本簡報包括調整後每股收益、調整後自由現金流和其他非公認會計準則指標，它們在附錄中進行了調整。本次電話會議的網路直播可在我們的網站上觀看，並可重播。

I would like to remind you that our commentary today will be including statements related to the expected future results of the company and are, therefore, forward-looking statements. Our actual results may differ materially from our forecasted projection due to a wide range of risks and uncertainties that are described in our earnings release and the presentation.

我想提醒您，我們今天的評論將包括與公司預期未來業績相關的陳述，因此屬於前瞻性陳述。由於我們的收益發布和演示中描述的各種風險和不確定性，我們的實際結果可能與我們的預測有重大差異。

With that, I will turn it over to Craig.

這樣，我就把它交給克雷格。

Okay. Thanks, Yan. We're pleased to report our Q3 results in another record quarter. Our team continued to deliver on our commitments, supported by strong markets and good execution.

好的。謝謝，嚴。我們很高興在另一個創紀錄的季度報告我們的第三季業績。在強大的市場和良好的執行力的支持下，我們的團隊繼續履行我們的承諾。

So let me begin with some of the highlights on Page 3. As we've shared for some time now, megatrends, including reindustrialization, energy transition, electrification and digitalization are continuing to expand our markets, revenues, orders and negotiations pipeline as these trends are once again evident in our results in the quarter, especially in our Electrical Americas business. We posted another quarter of record financial results with strong revenue, margins, earnings and cash flow growth.

讓我從第3 頁的一些要點開始。正如我們已經分享了一段時間的那樣，包括再工業化、能源轉型、電氣化和數位化在內的大趨勢正在繼續擴大我們的市場、收入、訂單和談判管道，因為這些趨勢我們本季的業績再次證明了這一點，特別是在我們的電氣美洲業務中。我們公佈了另一個季度創紀錄的財務業績，營收、利潤率、獲利和現金流均強勁成長。

While our markets continue to be strong, we're also continuing to improve on our overall effectiveness, which drove our record operating margins, and we're once again raising our earnings outlook. We're raising our '23 guidance for margins, adjusted EPS and cash flow. Our EPS growth for 2023 at the midpoint of our guidance is now 19%.

在我們的市場持續強勁的同時，我們也持續提高我們的整體效率，這推動了我們創紀錄的營業利潤，並且我們再次提高了我們的獲利前景。我們正在提高 23 年利潤率、調整後每股盈餘和現金流的指引。我們 2023 年每股盈餘成長率（以指引中位數計算）目前為 19%。

I'd also like to highlight our growing backlog, which was up 15% in Electrical and 22% in Aerospace. And we continue to have a strong book-to-bill ratio of 1.1 for Electrical and 1.2 for Aerospace.

我還想強調我們不斷增長的積壓訂單，電氣領域的積壓訂單增長了 15%，航空航太領域的積壓訂單增長了 22%。我們的電氣產業和航空航太產業的訂單出貨比分別為 1.1 和 1.2。

Lastly, we recorded record third quarter operating cash flow of $1.1 billion, up 18% and free cash flow margins of 16%. Tom will share additional details but overall, as you can tell, we're pleased with the results and well positioned to close out a record year.

最後，我們第三季營運現金流達到創紀錄的 11 億美元，成長 18%，自由現金流利潤率為 16%。湯姆將分享更多細節，但總的來說，正如您所知，我們對結果感到滿意，並準備好結束創紀錄的一年。

Moving to Slide 4. In the last quarter, we shared a framework for how we think about our key market drivers for the company. The chart notes 6 megatrends that are driving growth capital investments and how they intersect with various businesses within Eaton. As you can see, we're uniquely positioned in most of our businesses and expect to see accelerated growth opportunities. It's our intention to cover each of these markets and megatrends during our earnings call and to keep you appraised of progress.

轉向幻燈片 4。在上個季度，我們分享了一個關於如何思考公司關鍵市場驅動因素的框架。這張圖表指出了推動資本投資成長的 6 大趨勢以及它們如何與伊頓內部的各種業務交叉。正如您所看到的，我們在大多數業務中都處於獨特的地位，並期望看到加速成長的機會。我們打算在財報電話會議上介紹這些市場和大趨勢，並讓您隨時了解進度。

In our Q2 earnings call, we provided a summary of progress on infrastructure spending, reindustrialization and the utility market in Electrical and our Aerospace business. Today, we'll spend a few minutes on how reindustrialization continues to drive a record number of mega projects in North America and how Eaton is positioned to win in the fast-growing data center market. We received an extensive number of questions on each of these topics and hope our updates are helpful as you think about the growth outlook for the company.

在第二季的財報電話會議中，我們總結了電氣和航空航太業務的基礎設施支出、再工業化和公用事業市場的進展。今天，我們將花幾分鐘時間討論再工業化如何繼續推動北美大型專案數量創歷史新高，以及伊頓如何定位以贏得快速成長的資料中心市場。我們收到了有關每個主題的大量問題，希望我們的最新資訊在您考慮公司的成長前景時有所幫助。

So let's begin with Slide 5 in the presentation. We've shared this chart previously, and the data is a good proxy for reindustrialization and what we're seeing inside of many of our markets. You'll recall this chart summarizes the number of mega projects that have been announced since January of 2021. And a mega project is a project with an announced value of $1 billion or more. Note that this is the North America data, but we're seeing a similar trend in Europe, although the dollar amounts are not as large.

讓我們從簡報中的幻燈片 5 開始。我們之前分享過這張圖表，這些數據可以很好地反映再工業化以及我們在許多市場內部所看到的情況。您可能還記得此圖表總結了自 2021 年 1 月以來已宣布的大型專案的數量。大型專案是指宣布價值為 10 億美元或以上的專案。請注意，這是北美的數據，但我們在歐洲看到了類似的趨勢，儘管美元金額沒有那麼大。

Three key points to note here. One, at $860 billion, this number is 3x the normal rate, which translates directly to future opportunities for electrical markets. As a reminder, the electrical content on these projects range from 3% to 5%. Two, this number continues to grow at a faster rate. Announced mega projects grew between 25 -- grew 25% between Q3 and Q2, and Q2 was up 20% from Q1. This will not go on forever, but there continues to be strong momentum for industrial projects in North America. And third, only 20% of these projects have actually started. For those that have started, we've won roughly $850 million of orders with a win rate of approximately 40%. And we're actively negotiating another $1 billion of electric content on a small subset of these announced mega projects.

這裡需要注意三個關鍵點。第一，8,600 億美元，這個數字是正常水準的 3 倍，這直接轉化為電力市場的未來機會。提醒一下，這些項目的電力含量在 3% 到 5% 之間。第二，這個數字繼續以更快的速度成長。已宣布的大型專案數量增加了 25 個，第三季和第二季之間成長了 25%，第二季比第一季度增加了 20%。這種情況不會永遠持續下去，但北美工業項目的勢頭仍然強勁。第三，這些項目中只有 20% 真正啟動。對於那些已經開始的訂單，我們已經贏得了大約 8.5 億美元的訂單，獲勝率約為 40%。我們正在就這些已宣布的大型項目的一小部分積極談判另外 10 億美元的電力內容。

Turning to Slide 6. We highlight the data center market. I can't think of many markets that have better secular growth dynamics than data centers. The world's appetite for data, new insights and software solutions continues to grow at an exponential rate. And natural language processing, like ChatGPT, will only accelerate this trend. This is a very good thing for Eaton as we have a strong portfolio of data center solutions and the data center/IT channel represents 15% of our total revenue. While the numbers continue to be refined, we now think this market grows at a 16% compounded rate between 2022 and 2025 and likely for much longer.

轉向幻燈片 6。我們重點介紹資料中心市場。我想不出有多少市場比資料中心有更好的長期成長動力。世界對數據、新見解和軟體解決方案的需求持續呈指數級增長。而像 ChatGPT 這樣的自然語言處理只會加速這一趨勢。這對伊頓來說是一件非常好的事情，因為我們擁有強大的資料中心解決方案組合，而資料中心/IT 管道占我們總收入的 15%。雖然數據仍在不斷完善，但我們現在認為該市場在 2022 年至 2025 年間將以 16% 的複合成長率成長，而且這種成長可能會持續更長時間。

As expected, our customers are continuing to expand their data center CapEx build-outs, some of which are being modified to support the adoption of generative AI. Just consider some of these metrics. 120 zettabytes of data have been generated in 2023, a 60-fold increase over the 2 zettabytes generated in 2010. And the amount of data generated is expected to grow to 180 zettabytes by 2025, a 50% increase over 2023. And the AI impact is just starting to show up in our order book. During Q3, we won a large order of approximately $150 million for a new AI training data center and saw a roughly 61% increase in hyperscale orders overall. These AI data centers require both high-power and high-power density and as a result, higher electrical content.

正如預期的那樣，我們的客戶正在繼續擴大其資料中心資本支出建設，其中一些正在進行修改以支援生成式人工智慧的採用。只需考慮其中一些指標即可。 2023 年已產生 120 ZB 的數據，比 2010 年產生的 2 ZB 增加了 60 倍。預計到 2025 年，產生的數據量將增長到 180 ZB，比 2023 年增加 50%。人工智慧的影響剛剛開始出現在我們的訂單簿中。第三季度，我們贏得了約 1.5 億美元的大訂單，用於新建人工智慧訓練資料中心，超大規模訂單整體成長了約 61%。這些人工智慧資料中心需要高功率和高功率密度，因此需要更高的電氣含量。

Another trend driving higher electric content is the need for solutions that allow bidirectional flow of power back to the grid and the ability to optimize the use of renewable energy to power data centers. So this market and Eaton are well positioned for higher growth for years to come.

推動更高電力含量的另一個趨勢是需要允許電力雙向流回電網的解決方案，以及優化使用再生能源為資料中心供電的能力。因此，這個市場和伊頓已經做好了在未來幾年實現更高成長的準備。

And on Page 7, we highlight Eaton's unique positioning in the data center market and note that we have the electrical industry's broadest portfolio of power manager solutions for data centers. Centralized data centers come in a variety of sizes with incoming power draws between 10 and 500 megawatts, with the average data center of 40 to 50 megawatts, which is the variety that we show here on this slide.

在第 7 頁，我們強調了伊頓在資料中心市場的獨特定位，並指出我們擁有電氣行業最廣泛的資料中心電源管理解決方案組合。集中式資料中心有各種規模，輸入功率在 10 到 500 兆瓦之間，平均資料中心為 40 到 50 兆瓦，這就是我們在這張投影片中所展示的類型。

Eaton, we, support the flow of electrons from where they enter the facility from our transformers to our medium-voltage and low-voltage switchgear through our electrical busway, to our uninterruptible power systems, all the way into the server rooms, where we offer racks and power distribution units. In addition, we have a broad suite of software and service solutions that provide real-time diagnostics, prognostics and uptime support.

伊頓支持電子從進入設施的地方流動，從我們的變壓器到我們的中壓和低壓開關設備，通過我們的電氣母線槽，到我們的不間斷電源系統，一直進入伺服器機房，我們在其中提供機架和配電單元。此外，我們還擁有廣泛的軟體和服務解決方案，可提供即時診斷、預測和正常運行時間支援。

As a rule of thumb, Eaton's market opportunity in data centers is about $1.5 million per megawatt. Here, we're distinguishing this market from the myriad of smaller data centers that exist to support many different markets and smaller applications. And we continue to improve our position in the market with our Brightlayer for data center suite of software solutions.

根據經驗，伊頓在資料中心的市場機會約為每兆瓦 150 萬美元。在這裡，我們將該市場與眾多支援許多不同市場和小型應用程式的小型資料中心區分開來。我們透過用於資料中心的 Brightlayer 軟體解決方案套件不斷提高我們的市場地位。

This platform is the first in the industry to unite asset management, IT and operational device monitoring, power quality metrics and advanced electrical supervision into one single application. This new software provides electrical power, power quality, distributed IT equipment performance management that improves efficiency, data accuracy and certainly uptime.

該平台是業界第一個將資產管理、IT 和操作設備監控、電能品質指標和高級電氣監管整合到一個應用程式中的平台。這款新軟體提供電力、電能品質、分散式 IT 設備效能管理，可提高效率、資料準確性和正常運作時間。

So overall, Eaton is well positioned and continues to build on our strength in this rapidly growing market. Given our broad set of megatrends and our growth outlook, we're naturally investing to add capacity in many of our businesses, as noted on Slide 8. In fact, on the normal run rate, we're investing more than $1 billion of capital to support the growth that we see over the next 5 years. These investments expand our production capacity across a wide range of markets and position Eaton to win more than our fair share of these opportunities.

因此，總體而言，伊頓處於有利地位，並將繼續在這個快速成長的市場中增強我們的實力。鑑於我們廣泛的大趨勢和成長前景，我們自然會投資以增加許多業務的產能，如幻燈片 8 所示。事實上，按照正常運作率，我們投資了超過 10 億美元的資本來支持我們未來5 年的增長。這些投資擴大了我們在各個市場的生產能力，並使伊頓能夠贏得更多的機會。

As you've heard, while somewhat improved, our lead times are still longer than ideal. And these investments will address the bottlenecks in our manufacturing sites. The primary investments are being made in utility markets to support transformers, both its regulators and our line insulation and production equipment; and circuit breaker capacity to support the rapid growth in industrial projects; and to add redundancy to our existing capability. And in our global Electrical business to support growth in a number of fast-growing emerging markets, where we've been gaining share but have ample opportunities to do significantly more.

正如您所聽說的，雖然有所改善，但我們的交貨時間仍然比理想的要長。這些投資將解決我們生產基地的瓶頸。主要投資是在公用事業市場，以支援變壓器、其調節器以及我們的線路絕緣和生產設備；斷路器產能支撐工業項目快速成長；並為我們現有的能力增加冗餘。在我們的全球電氣業務中，我們支持許多快速成長的新興市場的成長，我們在這些市場的份額一直在增加，但有充足的機會做更多的事情。

And of course, we're building a completely new eMobility business and making significant investments to build out new manufacturing capacity there. These capital investments support higher organic growth, provide excellent return on investment and are indicative of our confidence in the future of the company. We've made some of these capital investments this year, while others will be layered in over the next couple of years.

當然，我們正在建立一個全新的電動車業務，並進行大量投資以在那裡建立新的製造能力。這些資本投資支持更高的有機成長，提供卓越的投資回報，顯示我們對公司的未來充滿信心。我們今年已經進行了其中一些資本投資，而其他投資將在未來幾年內分層進行。

Now I'll turn it over to Tom to cover our financial results and outlook for the year.

現在我將把它交給湯姆，介紹我們今年的財務表現和展望。

Thanks, Craig. I'll start by providing a summary of our Q3 results, which include several records.

謝謝，克雷格。首先，我將提供第三季結果的摘要，其中包括幾項記錄。

With respect to the top line, we posted an all-time quarterly sales record of $5.9 billion. Organic growth continues to be strong, up 9% for the quarter, building upon 6 consecutive quarters of double-digit growth and 3 quarters on a 2-year stack of mid-20s growth. Operating profit recorded all-time records on both a margin and absolute basis. Operating profit grew 23%, and segment margin expanded 240 basis points to 23.6%. We posted a very strong incremental margin of 46%, up sequentially from 33% in Q2 and 27% in Q1.

就營收而言，我們創下了 59 億美元的季度銷售歷史記錄。有機成長持續強勁，本季成長 9%，連續 6 個季度實現兩位數成長，並且連續 3 個季度實現 2 年 20 多歲中期增長。營業利潤無論從利潤率或絕對值上均創下歷史新高。營業利益成長 23%，部門利潤率擴大 240 個基點至 23.6%。我們公佈了 46% 的強勁增量利潤率，高於第二季的 33% 和第一季的 27%。

Adjusted EPS increased by 22% over the prior year to $2.47 per share, an all-time quarterly record and well above the high end of our guidance range. This performance resulted in a third quarter operating cash flow record. Our $1.14 billion in operating cash flow was 18% higher than the prior year, generating 16% free cash flow margin and over 100% free cash flow conversion. Looking at our results on a year-to-date basis. Organic growth is up 12%. Segment margin is up 170 basis points. We generated incremental margin of 35%, adjusted EPS growth of 19%, a 73% increase in operating cash flow versus prior year and free cash flow up 90% year-over-year.

調整後每股收益比上年增長 22%，達到每股 2.47 美元，創歷史季度記錄，遠高於我們指導範圍的上限。這一業績導致第三季營運現金流創下歷史新高。我們的營運現金流為 11.4 億美元，比上年增長 18%，自由現金流利潤率為 16%，自由現金流轉換率超過 100%。看看我們今年迄今的結果。有機成長達 12%。部門利潤率上升 170 個基點。我們的增量利潤率為 35%，調整後每股盈餘成長 19%，營運現金流較前一年成長 73%，自由現金流較上年成長 90%。

Moving on to the next slide. Our Electrical Americas business continues to execute well and delivered another very strong quarter. We set all-time quarterly records for sales, operating profit and margins. Organic sales growth remained very strong at 19%. Electrical Americas has generated double-digit organic growth for 7 consecutive quarters, with 6 of the quarters greater than 15%. On a 2-year stack, organic growth is up 37%. In the quarter, there was broad-based growth in nearly all end markets with double-digit growth everywhere except residential, and especially robust growth in industrial, utility, machine OEM and data center markets.

轉到下一張投影片。我們的電氣美洲業務繼續表現良好，並實現了另一個非常強勁的季度。我們創下了銷售額、營業利潤和利潤率的歷史季度記錄。有機銷售成長仍然非常強勁，達到 19%。 Electrical Americas 已連續 7 個季度實現兩位數有機成長，其中 6 個季度超過 15%。兩年來，有機成長高達 37%。本季度，幾乎所有終端市場均實現了廣泛成長，除住宅市場外均實現兩位數成長，尤其是工業、公用事業、機器 OEM 和資料中心市場的強勁成長。

Record operating margin of 27.7% was up 420 basis points versus prior year, benefiting from higher volumes and effective management of price cost. Incremental margin was 50% for the segment. On a rolling 12-month basis, orders were down 3%. It's important to note that the dollar value of orders remains high, and the decline needs to be viewed in context of the 36% order growth in Q3 of last year.

由於產量的增加和價格成本的有效管理，營業利潤率創紀錄地達到了 27.7%，比上年增長了 420 個基點。該部門的利潤增量為 50%。從 12 個月的滾動來看，訂單量下降了 3%。值得注意的是，訂單的美元價值仍然很高，下降需要在去年第三季訂單成長 36% 的背景下看待。

As discussed on last quarter's call, order intake is an important metric but needs to be analyzed together with record backlog. Currently in our electrical sector, we have backlog coverage of almost 3x our historical average. We have looked at multiple scenarios with meaningful order intake decline and are confident in those scenarios, given our backlog coverage that we can generate robust organic growth for several quarters into 2025. In this regard, Electrical Americas backlog increased 19% year-over-year and 5% sequentially, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio above 1.1 on a rolling 12-month basis. For orders, we had particular strength in data center, industrial facilities and institutional markets.

如同上季電話會議所討論的，訂單量是一個重要指標，但需要與創紀錄的積壓訂單一起進行分析。目前，在我們的電力產業，我們的積壓訂單覆蓋率幾乎是歷史平均值的三倍。我們已經研究了訂單量大幅下降的多種情景，並考慮到我們的積壓訂單範圍，我們對這些情景充滿信心，我們可以在2025 年之前的幾個季度實現強勁的有機增長。在這方面，Electrical Americas 的積壓訂單年增了19%環比增長 5%，導致 12 個月滾動訂單出貨比超過 1.1。在訂單方面，我們在資料中心、工業設施和機構市場方面具有特殊優勢。

Also, our major project negotiations pipeline in Q3 was up 33% versus prior year and 19% sequentially from especially strong growth in data center, institutional, government and water, wastewater markets. Data center negotiations increased almost 4x. On a 2-year stack, our negotiation pipeline was up 180%. Overall, Electrical Americas continues to have a very strong year.

此外，由於資料中心、機構、政府以及水、廢水市場的強勁成長，我們第三季的主要專案談判管道比去年同期成長了 33%，比上一季成長了 19%。資料中心談判增加了近 4 倍。兩年來，我們的談判管道增加了 180%。總體而言，美洲電氣展今年持續表現強勁。

On Page 11, you'll find the results for our Electrical Global segment. Despite flat organic growth, we posted a Q3 bright sales record. We had strength in our commercial and institutional, industrial and utility markets. Regionally, we saw weakness in EMEA markets that were offset in other markets where growth was in line with expectations. We expect the softness in EMEA to be short term with organic growth in the segment returning to low to mid-single digits in Q4.

在第 11 頁，您將找到我們的 Electrical Global 細分市場的結果。儘管有機成長持平，但我們第三季的銷售記錄依然亮眼。我們在商業和機構、工業和公用事業市場上具有實力。從地區來看，我們看到歐洲、中東和非洲市場的疲軟被其他市場的成長所抵消，而其他市場的成長符合預期。我們預計歐洲、中東和非洲地區的疲軟將是短期的，該領域的有機成長將在第四季度恢復到低至中個位數。

Operating margin of 21.8% was up 120 basis points compared to prior year. Operating profit and margin were all-time quarterly records. Margin improvements were primarily driven by effectively managing price cost. Orders were up 1% on a rolling 12-month basis with strength in data center and utility markets. Importantly, book-to-bill remained greater than 1.

營業利益率為 21.8%，較上年成長 120 個基點。營業利潤和利潤率創歷史季度記錄。利潤率的提高主要是透過有效管理價格成本來推動的。由於資料中心和公用事業市場的強勁，訂單量連續 12 個月成長了 1%。重要的是，訂單出貨比仍大於 1。

Before moving to our industrial businesses, I'd like to briefly recap the combined electrical segments. For Q3, we posted organic growth of 11%, incremental margin of 53% and segment margin of 25.5%, which was up 320 basis points over prior year. On a rolling 12-month basis, our book-to-bill ratio for our electrical sector remains very strong at more than 1.1. We remain quite confident in our positioning for continued growth with strong margins in our overall electrical business.

在討論我們的工業業務之前，我想先簡單回顧一下合併後的電氣部門。第三季度，我們的有機成長為 11%，增量利潤率為 53%，部門利潤率為 25.5%，比去年同期成長 320 個基點。從 12 個月的滾動來看，我們電氣行業的訂單出貨比仍然非常強勁，超過 1.1。我們對整體電力業務的持續成長和強勁利潤率充滿信心。

The next slide highlights our Aerospace segment. We posted all-time quarterly sales and operating profit records. Organic growth was 10% for the quarter with a 3% contribution from foreign exchange. We've posted double-digit growth in 6 of the last 7 quarters in this segment. Growth was driven by broad strength across all markets with particularly strong growth in commercial OE and commercial aftermarket, which were up 21% and 27%, respectively.

下一張投影片重點介紹了我們的航空航天部門。我們公佈了有史以來的季度銷售額和營業利潤記錄。本季有機成長 10%，其中 3% 來自外匯貢獻。在過去 7 個季度中，我們在該領域有 6 個季度實現了兩位數成長。成長是由所有市場的廣泛實力推動的，其中商業原廠設備和商業售後市場的成長尤為強勁，分別成長了 21% 和 27%。

Operating margin of 24.1% was up 10 basis points on a year-over-year basis and up 160 basis points sequentially. Growth in orders and backlog continue to be very strong. On a rolling 12-month basis, orders increased 16% with especially strong growth in commercial OEM, commercial aftermarket and defense OEM. Year-over-year backlog increased 22% in Q3 and 4% sequentially, reflecting continued momentum in the Aerospace recovery. On a rolling 12-month basis, our book-to-bill for our Aerospace segment remains very strong at 1.2.

營業利益率為 24.1%，較去年同期上升 10 個基點，較上季上升 160 個基點。訂單和積壓訂單的成長仍然非常強勁。在連續 12 個月的基礎上，訂單增長了 16%，其中商業 OEM、商業售後市場和國防 OEM 的成長尤為強勁。第三季積壓訂單年增 22%，比上一季成長 4%，反映出航空航太業復甦的持續動能。從 12 個月的滾動來看，我們航空航天部門的訂單出貨比仍保持在 1.2 的強勁水平。

Moving to our Vehicle segment on Page 13. In the quarter, organic growth was down 1%. Foreign exchange had a 2% favorable impact. We saw growth in APAC, North American Automotive and EMEA markets more than offset by a decline in North American Class 8 and South American markets. Operating margins came in at 17.4%, 60 basis points above prior year driven by effective price cost management, partially offset by lower sales volumes. 17.4% margins represents 210 basis points of sequential increase primarily driven by manufacturing efficiency improvements. We continue to pursue and win new business in growth areas such as EV torque win with a major Chinese OEM. We also have momentum winning program length extensions and volume increases with multiple OEMs globally.

轉向第 13 頁的車輛部門。本季度，有機成長下降了 1%。外匯有2%的有利影響。我們看到亞太地區、北美汽車和歐洲、中東和非洲市場的成長被北美 8 級和南美市場的下滑所抵消。由於有效的價格成本管理，營業利潤率為 17.4%，比上年同期高出 60 個基點，但部分被銷售下降所抵銷。 17.4% 的利潤率較上季成長 210 個基點，這主要是由於製造效率的提高。我們繼續在成長領域尋求並贏得新業務，例如與中國一家主要原始設備製造商合作贏得電動車扭力。我們也與全球多家 OEM 合作，實現了專案長度的延長和產量的增加。

On Page 14, we show results for our eMobility business. We generated another strong quarter of growth, including an all-time sales record. Revenue was up 19%, all organic. Margin improved 150 basis points versus prior year to breakeven. The result was mostly driven by higher volumes from ramping programs and improved manufacturing productivity. Overall, we remain very encouraged by the growth prospects of the eMobility segment. So far in 2023, we have won new programs worth $1.1 billion of mature year revenues. This is nearly a 145% increase in new program wins since the $450 million highlighted in last quarter's earnings call. Through these wins, we continue to find opportunities to leverage expertise and differentiated technologies across segments. Should be noted, we have increased our interim revenue target for 2025 by 25% from $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion.

在第 14 頁，我們展示了電動交通業務的結果。我們又實現了強勁的季度成長，包括創歷史新高的銷售記錄。收入成長了 19%，全部是有機收入。利潤率較前一年提高 150 個基點，達到損益兩平。結果主要是由於產能計畫的產量增加和製造生產力的提高所致。總體而言，我們仍然對電動車領域的成長前景感到非常鼓舞。 2023 年到目前為止，我們已經贏得了價值 11 億美元的成熟年收入的新項目。自從上季財報電話會議強調的 4.5 億美元以來，新項目獲勝數量增加了近 145%。透過這些勝利，我們繼續尋找機會利用跨細分市場的專業知識和差異化技術。值得注意的是，我們將 2025 年中期收入目標從 12 億美元提高了 25% 至 15 億美元。

Moving to Page 15. We show our Electrical and Aerospace backlog updated through Q3. As you can see, we continue to build backlog with Electrical stepping up to $9.4 billion and Aerospace reaching $3.1 billion, sequential increases of 5% and 4%, respectively. Both businesses have increased their backlogs by significantly more than 100% since Q3 2020. The backlog build gives us confidence in our order outlook for the quarters to come.

前往第 15 頁。我們顯示了截至第三季更新的電氣和航空積壓訂單。正如您所看到的，我們繼續積壓訂單，其中電氣部門增加至 94 億美元，航空航天部門增加至 31 億美元，環比分別增長 5% 和 4%。自 2020 年第三季以來，這兩家公司的積壓訂單都大幅增加了 100% 以上。積壓訂單的增加讓我們對未來幾季的訂單前景充滿信心。

On the next page, we show our fiscal year organic growth and operating margin guidance. For organic growth, we are increasing Electrical Americas, lowering Electrical Global and eMobility while narrowing the range of our total organic growth, resulting in a 50 basis point increase at the midpoint. We now expect organic growth in Electrical Americas to be 16.5% to 18.5%, up 250 basis points from our prior 14% to 16% guidance. This represents 850 basis points improvement from our initial 2023 guidance.

在下一頁中，我們展示了本財年的自然成長和營業利潤率指引。對於有機成長，我們增加了 Electrical Americas，降低了 Electrical Global 和 eMobility，同時縮小了總有機成長範圍，導致中點成長了 50 個基點。我們現在預計電氣美洲地區的有機成長將為 16.5% 至 18.5%，比我們之前 14% 至 16% 的指導提高 250 個基點。這比我們最初的 2023 年指導提高了 850 個基點。

For Electrical Global, we're lowering our organic growth guidance from 6% to 8%, to 4% to 6% based on weaker-than-expected end markets in Europe. For eMobility, the midpoint of our organic growth guidance is now 25% versus 35% mostly due to OEM-related delays for their EV platforms. For segment margins, we're increasing our total Eaton margin guidance range by 50 basis points. This is a result of an improved outlook in Electrical Americas, where we increased the range by 150 basis points on strong demand and continued operational execution.

對於 Electrical Global，由於歐洲終端市場弱於預期，我們將有機成長指引從 6% 至 8% 下調至 4% 至 6%。對於 eMobility，我們有機成長指引的中點現在為 25% 與 35%，主要是由於 OEM 相關的電動車平台延遲。對於部門利潤率，我們將伊頓總利潤率指導範圍提高了 50 個基點。這是美洲電氣前景改善的結果，由於強勁的需求和持續的營運執行，我們將範圍提高了 150 個基點。

We are lowering margin guidance for Electrical Global 50 basis points due to lower growth. The 21.8% midpoint comfortably exceeds our target to reach 21.5% by 2025 and represents a 160 basis point increase versus prior year. In summary, as we approach the final quarter of 2023, we remain well positioned to deliver another very strong year of financial performance.

由於成長放緩，我們降低了 Electrical Global 50 基點的利潤指引。 21.8% 的中點輕鬆超過了我們在 2025 年達到 21.5% 的目標，比前一年增長了 160 個基點。總而言之，隨著 2023 年最後一個季度的臨近，我們仍然處於有利位置，可以實現另一個非常強勁的財務業績。

On Page 17, we have additional guidance metrics for 2023 and Q4. Following our strong year-to-date performance and improved margin expectations, we are raising our full year EPS range to $8.95 per share to $9.05 per share. The $9 midpoint represents 19% growth in adjusted EPS over the prior year. We're also raising our operating cash flow and free cash flow guidance ranges by $100 million each to reflect our stronger earnings and solid working capital management.

在第 17 頁，我們提供了 2023 年和第四季的其他指導指標。繼今年迄今的強勁業績和提高的利潤率預期之後，我們將全年每股收益範圍提高至每股 8.95 美元至 9.05 美元。 9 美元的中點代表調整後每股收益比上年增長 19%。我們還將營運現金流和自由現金流指引範圍各提高 1 億美元，以反映我們更強勁的獲利和穩健的營運資本管理。

For Q4, we are guiding organic growth of 8% to 10%, segment margins of 22.3% to 22.7%, representing 170 basis point improvement at the midpoint versus prior year. Adjusted EPS is a range of $2.39 to $2.49, an 18% increase versus prior year at the midpoint.

對於第四季度，我們預計有機成長為 8% 至 10%，部門利潤率為 22.3% 至 22.7%，較去年中位數提高 170 個基點。調整後每股收益範圍為 2.39 美元至 2.49 美元，比上年中位數成長 18%。

The next chart summarizes the progression of our guidance in 2023. Throughout the year, we've demonstrated the ability to execute on our commitments and raise guidance for all of the metrics shown. We are well on track to deliver our third year in a row of double-digit organic growth with all-time record margins in a $1 billion or nearly 40% increase in operating cash flow.

下圖總結了我們 2023 年指導的進展。在這一年中，我們展示了履行承諾並為所有所示指標提出指導的能力。我們預計連續第三年實現兩位數的有機成長，利潤率創歷史新高，達到 10 億美元，營運現金流成長近 40%。

Now I'll hand it back to Craig.

現在我會把它還給克雷格。

Thanks, Tom. Moving to Page 19 and turning our attention to next year. We provided our initial view on what we expect from our end markets.

謝謝，湯姆。翻到第 19 頁，我們將注意力轉向明年。我們對終端市場的期望提供了初步看法。

And first, I would note this as a starting point, we haven't changed our view on 2023. And as you can see, we're expecting attractive growth in nearly all of our markets in 2024. We expect strong double-digit growth in data centers and distributed IT segment, in utilities, commercial aerospace and electric vehicles.

首先，我想將此作為一個起點，我們沒有改變對 2023 年的看法。正如您所看到的，我們預計 2024 年幾乎所有市場都會出現有吸引力的增長。我們預計強勁的兩位數增長數據中心和分散式IT 領域、公用事業、商業航空航天和電動車。

Additionally, we expect solid growth within industrial facilities, commercial and institutional and defense aerospace. And as you can see, global light vehicle market should be modestly positive with only the residential and commercial vehicle markets experiencing a decline. So it should be another year of significant growth with over 80% of our end markets seeing solid or better growth.

此外，我們預計工業設施、商業和機構以及國防航空航太領域將穩健成長。正如您所看到的，全球輕型車市場應該會適度樂觀，只有住宅和商用車市場下滑。因此，今年應該是另一個顯著的成長一年，我們超過 80% 的終端市場將實現穩健或更好的成長。

Please note that much of this growth is supported by record backlogs, and we'll provide more detailed color on organic growth as we come together with our 2024 guidance in February of next year. As you can see from the outlook, despite mixed signals in the economy and some historical indicators of growth, Eaton remains very well positioned to deliver what we call differentiated growth in 2024 and beyond.

請注意，這一增長很大程度上是由創紀錄的積壓訂單支持的，我們將在明年 2 月發布 2024 年指導時提供有關有機增長的更詳細信息。正如您從展望中看到的那樣，儘管經濟訊號和一些歷史成長指標好壞參半，但伊頓仍然處於有利位置，可以在 2024 年及以後實現我們所說的差異化成長。

So I'll close with a summary on Page 22 -- on Page 20. Last quarter, I noted that we're feeling good about how our markets are performing. And today, I reiterate that sentiment. We continue to experience powerful megatrends that are driving a higher outlook for our end markets, and we're seeing it in our negotiations and order book. And once again, we delivered another record quarter of financial results, increased our earnings and cash flow outlook. Our orders continue to come in at historically high levels, and we continue to grow our backlog.

因此，我將在第 22 頁和第 20 頁上進行總結。上個季度，我指出我們對市場的表現感覺良好。今天，我重申這個觀點。我們繼續經歷強大的大趨勢，推動我們的終端市場前景更高，我們在談判和訂單簿中看到了這一點。我們再次實現了創紀錄的季度財務業績，提高了我們的獲利和現金流前景。我們的訂單繼續保持歷史高位，並且我們的積壓訂單繼續增加。

I would note that our team is executing well, but we have an opportunity to be better everywhere than I'd say in every business. So the setup for 2024 is playing out as we expected, and it should be another strong year.

我要指出的是，我們的團隊執行得很好，但我們有機會在任何地方都比我所說的在每個業務中做得更好。因此，2024 年的情況正如我們預期的那樣，這應該又是強勁的一年。

With that, we'll open it up for any questions you may have.

這樣，我們將打開它來回答您可能有的任何問題。

Thanks, Craig. (Operator Instructions) With that, I'll turn it over to the operator to give you guys the instructions.

謝謝，克雷格。 （操作員指示）這樣，我就把它交給操作員給你們指示。

(Operator Instructions) The first question will come from the line of Andrew Obin from Bank of America.

（操作員說明） 第一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Andrew Obin。

Just a question on incrementals. Just very nice progression in Electrical Americas from first quarter into third quarter and overall for the company. So how should we think about just incremental progression to the fourth quarter and '24 because I think within your framework, you've used a lower number. Just maybe expand what's driving these strong incrementals and how sustainable it is going forward?

只是一個關於增量的問題。從第一季到第三季以及公司整體而言，美洲電氣業務取得了非常好的進展。那麼，我們應該如何考慮第四季度和 24 年的增量進展，因為我認為在您的框架內，您使用了較低的數字。也許只是擴大推動這些強勁增量的因素以及它未來的可持續性如何？

I appreciate the question, Andrew. And our team certainly performed extremely well during the quarter, and we're proud of our teams and how well they executed in the quarter. And certainly implied in the guidance are pretty attractive incrementals as well. Maybe I'll answer the last question kind of first with respect to as we think about incrementals going forward in 2024, and we still think 30% incrementals are the right way to think about the incrementals for the company. Clearly, we're making some investments in the business that are going to kind of moderate incrementals.

我很欣賞這個問題，安德魯。我們的團隊在本季的表現當然非常出色，我們為我們的團隊以及他們在本季的執行情況感到自豪。當然，指南中也暗示了相當有吸引力的增量。也許我會先回答最後一個問題，因為我們考慮 2024 年的增量，我們仍然認為 30% 的增量是考慮公司增量的正確方法。顯然，我們正在對該業務進行一些投資，這將在一定程度上緩和增量。

And certainly, if you think about price versus cost and the tailwinds that they provided during the course of 2023, we're not expected to see the same order of magnitude of tailwinds in 2024. So we still think 30% is a good planning number for next year. And -- but certainly, as we think about Q3 and Q4, we have a pretty strong line of sight to those incrementals that are embedded in our forecast for Q4.

當然，如果你考慮價格與成本以及它們在 2023 年期間提供的有利因素，我們預計 2024 年不會看到相同數量級的有利因素。因此，我們仍然認為 30% 是一個不錯的規劃數字明年。而且，當然，當我們考慮第三季和第四季時，我們對第四季度預測中包含的那些增量有非常強烈的關注。

And just a follow-up question. You keep announcing additional capacity additions. If I look at Slide 19, you sort of give end market growth assumptions. So how should we quantify the outgrowth opportunity or revenue from capacity additions, particularly relative to your end market assumptions?

只是一個後續問題。你們不斷宣布增加產能。如果我看一下投影片 19，您會給出終端市場成長假設。那麼，我們應該如何量化產能增加所帶來的成長機會或收入，特別是相對於您的終端市場假設？

This is kind of a really attractive problem to have, Andrew, in terms of the growth that we're seeing in many of our businesses and having to make some investments to deal with the stronger demand that we've seen over the last few years and more certainly the demand that we expect to see into the future. And so we talk about kind of this growth outlook for the company in these strong markets. And we need to make some investments in capacity and some key bottlenecks.

安德魯，就我們許多業務的成長而言，這是一個非常有吸引力的問題，必須進行一些投資來應對過去幾年我們看到的更強勁的需求更肯定的是我們預計未來的需求。因此，我們討論了公司在這些強勁市場中的成長前景。我們需要在產能和一些關鍵瓶頸方面進行一些投資。

We talked about the $1 billion in my opening outbound commentary and where it's going. And I'd say that these investments that we're putting in will give us the capacity that we need to support the long-term growth outlook for the company and a little headwind above that, if markets turn out to be even a bit stronger than what we anticipated. And so we are making the investments that we should be making and we need to make to get out in front of the pretty robust outlook that we have for the company's growth.

我們在我的對外評論中談到了 10 億美元以及它的去向。我想說，我們投入的這些投資將為我們提供支持公司長期成長前景所需的能力，如果市場變得更加強勁，那麼我們將面臨一些阻力比我們預期的要好。因此，我們正在進行我們應該進行的投資，我們需要進行投資，以應對公司成長的相當強勁的前景。

The next question is from Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的喬·里奇。

Craig, can you maybe just talk a little bit about the mega projects for a second? I think you mentioned that 20% of the projects have started. When you think about the timing of when you typically will see your bid -- like bidding on those projects and the orders coming through, how do you see this kind of playing out based on, again, the projects that have already started and now the funnel is continuing to increase?

克雷格，你能簡單談談大型專案嗎？我想你提到20%的專案已經啟動。當你考慮到你通常會看到你的投標的時間時——比如對這些項目的投標和收到的訂單，你如何看待這種基於已經開始的項目和現在的項目的結果漏斗還在繼續增加嗎？

Yes. I appreciate the question, and it's certainly something that we've spent a fair amount of time internally trying to sort to ourselves. And as you can imagine, inside of this broad array of mega projects, there's very different types of projects that are embedded in those numbers, some of which where you'd have essentially a 12-month kind of cycle, others of which could have 3-year cycles or longer.

是的。我很欣賞這個問題，而且我們確實花了相當多的時間在內部試圖自行解決這個問題。正如您可以想像的那樣，在這一廣泛的大型項目中，這些數字中嵌入了非常不同類型的項目，其中一些項目基本上有 12 個月的周期，其他項目可能有 12 個月的周期。3年周期或更長時間。

So it's a pretty wide distribution of lead times depending upon the type of projects that we're talking about. So I'd say that at this juncture, if you had to use a rule of thumb, I'd say you're probably -- because these tend to be the bigger projects unlike our flow business. They're probably a couple of years on average in terms of from when we actually start and price a project to actually showing up in revenue inside of the company. If you can [clear] on average a couple of years out is the way to think about it.

因此，根據我們所討論的項目類型，交付週期的分佈相當廣泛。所以我想說，在這個節骨眼上，如果你必須使用經驗法則，我會說你可能會——因為這些往往是更大的項目，與我們的流程業務不同。從我們實際啟動專案並為其定價到實際顯示在公司內部的收入中，平均可能需要幾年時間。如果你平均幾年後就能[清除]，那就是考慮這個問題的方式。

I would say that talking about these mega projects in general, we've gotten so many questions. There's been so much written about this particular topic. I would say today that, that is principally perhaps more than anything else, what's driving this fundamental change in the growth prospects of the company. I mean, these huge projects, much bigger than they've ever been historically. And by the way, I'd note that 60% of these projects are related to whether it's IRA, the IIJA or the CHIPS Act. And so these are really big projects.

我想說的是，總的來說，在談論這些大型專案時，我們遇到了很多問題。關於這個特定主題已經有很多文章了。我今天要說的是，這可能是推動公司成長前景根本性變化的原因。我的意思是，這些巨大的項目比歷史上任何時候都要大得多。順便說一句，我注意到這些項目中有 60% 與 IRA、IIJA 或 CHIPS 法案相關。所以這些都是非常大的項目。

They are different projects. And they are projects that are, quite frankly, being subsidized in many ways by this government spending that's taking place more broadly inside of the U.S. economy. So we think these projects are solid. They're going to go forward and we think, once again, going to be really attractive growth tailwind for the company.

它們是不同的項目。坦白說，這些項目在許多方面都受到美國經濟內部更廣泛的政府支出的補貼。所以我們認為這些項目是可靠的。他們將繼續前進，我們再次認為，這將成為公司真正有吸引力的成長動力。

And just to complement that, Craig, I mean, those are the mega projects, but we also said in the prepared remarks our negotiated pipeline for the U.S., which was up 33% year-over-year and up 18% sequentially. So a lot of good growth going on in those big projects but less than the $1 billion as well.

為了補充這一點，克雷格，我的意思是，這些都是大型項目，但我們也在準備好的發言中提到了我們為美國談判的管道，該管道同比增長 33%，環比增長 18%。因此，這些大型項目正在取得良好的成長，但也少於 10 億美元。

Yes, that's great color, guys. And I guess just my quick follow-on there is just any concern that you have at this point? There's a lot of concern in the market regarding project financing and specifically, I think you guys called out utility CapEx, the market being up double digits next year. Just any thoughts around the project financing issue, higher interest costs and whether that pushes things out a bit.

是的，夥計們，這顏色真棒。我想我想快速跟進一下，您現在有任何擔憂嗎？市場對專案融資有很多擔憂，特別是，我認為你們提到了公用事業資本支出，明年市場將成長兩位數。只是關於專案融資問題、更高的利息成本以及這是否會推遲一些事情的任何想法。

Yes. It's certainly one of the things that we're watching and we're concerned about as well, Joe. It's perfectly logical to say that some of these projects could be delayed or put at risk, given much higher financing cost. I will tell you that we've not seen any evidence, any material evidence of that to date. But it's certainly, once again, a potential risk. And that's why I highlight (inaudible) around 60% of these projects basically being financially supported by these government stimulus plans, which is very new. And the dollars, as you know, are quite substantial. And at this point, we'll have to wait and see how it plays out. And we're going to watch it and make sure that we're taking the necessary precautions. But to date, we really haven't seen that impact.

是的。這當然是我們正在關注和關心的事情之一，喬。鑑於融資成本高得多，可以完全合乎邏輯地說，其中一些項目可能會被推遲或面臨風險。我會告訴你，迄今為止我們還沒有看到任何證據，任何實質證據。但這無疑又是一個潛在的風險。這就是為什麼我強調（聽不清楚）這些項目中大約 60% 基本上是由這些政府刺激計劃提供財政支持的，這是非常新的。正如你所知，美元是相當可觀的。在這一點上，我們必須等待，看看結果如何。我們將密切注意並確保採取必要的預防措施。但到目前為止，我們還沒有看到這種影響。

Joe, year-to-date in the Americas, utility is up over 25%. And if you look at the entire electrical sector year-to-date are up over 20% so it remains very strong.

Joe，今年迄今為止，美洲的公用事業公司成長了 25% 以上。如果你看看整個電力產業今年迄今的漲幅超過 20%，那麼它仍然非常強勁。

Our next question is from Jeff Sprague from Vertical Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Jeff Sprague。

Can we pivot a little bit to Electrical Global? And just maybe a little bit more color on kind of the complexion of demand underneath the surface there by geography. And you noted some project activity starting to come to the floor there. It does seem like Europe, in particular, might end up in a bit of a bidding war with the U.S. on project stimulus and the like. So maybe just a little bit of color there on how you see things playing out into the first half of next year, not just Q4, but what kind of pipeline might be building.

我們可以轉向 Electrical Global 嗎？也許只是地理上表面下的需求膚色有更多的色彩。您注意到一些項目活動開始在那裡進行。尤其是歐洲，似乎最終可能會在項目刺激等方面與美國陷入一場競購戰。因此，也許您對明年上半年的情況有何看法，不僅是第四季度，還有可能正在建造什麼樣的管道。

Appreciate the question, Jeff. And if you think about today, what makes up the global business for us, there is what we do in Asia, there is what we do and what we call GEIS, which was the former (inaudible) B-Line business. And then it's our electrical Europe business. Those are the 3 pieces that make up global for us. And I will say that we know, without a doubt, did see a slowdown in our European business during the course of Q3. Our business specifically, we're a pretty big player into what you call the manufacturing or the MOEM segment, and that segment was especially weak.

感謝這個問題，傑夫。如果你想想今天我們的全球業務是由什麼組成的，那就是我們在亞洲所做的事情，還有我們所做的事情以及我們所說的GEIS，這是以前的（聽不清楚）B 線業務。然後是我們的歐洲電氣業務。這些是我們構成全球的三個部分。我想說的是，毫無疑問，我們的歐洲業務在第三季確實出現了放緩。具體來說，我們的業務在所謂的製造或 MOEM 領域是相當大的參與者，而該領域尤其薄弱。

Our business in Asia continued to perform well, growing high single digits. Our GEIS business continued to perform fine, mid-single digit, consistent with what we expected. It's really what took place during the course of the quarter in Europe, specifically in electrical, that drove the mist to our own expectations and the reduction in our outlook. Now we -- without a doubt, we saw some destocking in the distribution channel and having -- had a number of conversations in person with some of our large distributors in Europe, it's clear that they were doing some inventory adjustments, some overbuying that took place over the last 12 months or so. And we do think that, that segment gets back to mid-single-digit growth in Q4.

我們在亞洲的業務持續表現良好，實現高個位數成長。我們的 GEIS 業務持續表現良好，達到中個位數，與我們的預期一致。這確實是本季歐洲發生的事情，特別是在電氣領域，這讓我們的預期變得迷霧重重，並下調了我們的前景。現在，毫無疑問，我們看到分銷渠道中出現了一些去庫存的情況，並且與我們在歐洲的一些大型分銷商進行了多次面對面的交談，很明顯，他們正在進行一些庫存調整，一些過度購買導致了過去 12 個月左右的時間。我們確實認為，該細分市場在第四季度將恢復到中個位數成長。

And we think, once again, these fundamental trends that we talked about, with respect to electrification, energy transition, digital growth and data centers, all of those trends are applicable for Europe as well. And so we do think while slower growth than the U.S., we think those markets get back to growth once we work through this inventory correction that we've seen here in the third quarter.

我們再次認為，我們談到的這些基本趨勢，涉及電氣化、能源轉型、數位成長和資料中心，所有這些趨勢也適用於歐洲。因此，我們確實認為，雖然成長速度比美國慢，但我們認為，一旦我們完成第三季的庫存調整，這些市場就會恢復成長。

Encouragingly, Jeff, we've seen some good order flow in EMEA. So that gives us confidence to go to the low mid-single digits in Q4.

令人鼓舞的是，傑夫，我們在歐洲、中東和非洲地區看到了一些很好的訂單流。因此，這讓我們有信心在第四季達到中低個位數。

But we'll keep watching it. I mean, clearly, there's a lot of geopolitical tensions in the region there as well. And we're not going to be pollyannish about it. And if we need to make some adjustments, we'll make the adjustments we need to make.

但我們會繼續關注。我的意思是，很明顯，該地區也存在著許多地緣政治緊張局勢。我們不會對此抱持盲目樂觀的態度。如果我們需要進行一些調整，我們將進行我們需要進行的調整。

Great. And maybe just as a follow-up, different topic, though, is just thanks for the little many deep dive on data centers here. Can you just speak to how your content is changing? So obviously, you gave us a $1.5 million per megawatt, and we got a lot of megawatts coming, right? So you just grow on the back of that for sure. But is your dollar content per megawatt also going up as part of this equation? And how so, where has it been? And where is it headed in your view?

偉大的。不過，也許作為一個後續的不同主題，只是感謝這裡對資料中心的深入研究。您能談談您的內容是如何變化的嗎？很明顯，您給了我們每兆瓦 150 萬美元，我們得到了很多兆瓦，對吧？所以你肯定會在這一點上成長。但是，作為這個等式的一部分，每兆瓦的美元含量是否也會增加？怎麼會這樣，它在哪裡？在您看來，它的發展方向是什麼？

Yes. What I would tell you is that the simple answer to the question is yes. We are essentially selling more content per megawatt because we're selling more software solutions. We're selling more complete data center solutions into the marketplace. So that would be absolutely true. That impact is kind of dwarfed by just the overall growth in the market though. I mean, the market, as we've talked about, continues to be quite robust. And just maybe some of the data, if you look at simply the backlog of projects today in data center in the planning stages, it surpassed $100 million for the first time ever greater than 6 years of construction, $12 billion in the month of September alone, starts up some 29% driven by the big 4 and some $42 billion under construction.

是的。我要告訴你的是，這個問題的簡單答案是肯定的。實際上，我們每兆瓦銷售的內容更多，因為我們銷售的軟體解決方案更多。我們正在向市場銷售更完整的資料中心解決方案。所以這絕對是真的。不過，這種影響與市場的整體成長相比還是相形見絀的。我的意思是，正如我們所討論的，市場仍然相當強勁。也許只是一些數據，如果你簡單地看一下數據中心目前在規劃階段積壓的項目，它的建設時間首次超過 1 億美元，超過 6 年的建設時間，僅 9 月份就達到了 120 億美元，在四大巨頭的推動下啟動了約29%，在建項目價值約420 億美元。

So the whole market is growing quite dramatically right now. And obviously, what's happening today in AI is accelerating that. And if you think about the content opportunity for electrical equipment alone in an AI-centric data center, it's 5x the growth, the opportunity when you compare it to a conventional data center.

所以現在整個市場正在急劇成長。顯然，當今人工智慧領域正在發生的事情正在加速這一過程。如果您考慮以 AI 為中心的資料中心中僅電氣設備的內容機會，您會發現與傳統資料中心相比，其成長速度是傳統資料中心的 5 倍。

Now having said that, there clearly are some very real constraints in terms of the industry's ability to really deal with the demand that's out in front of us. Huge backlog, huge negotiations. We have historically operated with some 3 years, let's say, of visibility in data center market. We now have more than, in some cases, 5 years of visibility on projects. And so the whole market is just performing extremely well, and we'd expect it to do so for years to come.

話雖如此，但就該行業真正處理擺在我們面前的需求的能力而言，顯然存在一些非常現實的限制。大量積壓，大量談判。從歷史上看，我們在資料中心市場的知名度大約有 3 年。在某些情況下，我們現在對專案的了解超過 5 年。因此，整個市場的表現非常好，我們預計未來幾年也將如此。

Just to amplify, Jeff, just a little bit more on that. Year-to-date in data centers, again, on our negotiation pipeline, up 136%. And in the quarter, as we said in the prepared remarks, up 4x. So it's growing faster than it was at the beginning of the year as well.

傑夫，我想再詳細說明這一點。今年迄今為止，我們的談判管道中資料中心的數量再次成長了 136%。正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，本季成長了 4 倍。因此，它的成長也比年初更快。

Our next question is from Scott Davis from Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

Not much to pick on, really solid results across the board. But I was wondering if we could talk a little bit about M&A and maybe opportunities to play offense here while your cash flow is cooking. And I was thinking, in particular, is there any opportunities out there to really scale up the eMobility segment to make either -- whether it's several interesting bolt-ons or something a little bit larger to get that to scale a little faster than maybe the current pace?

沒什麼好挑剔的，全面的結果確實很紮實。但我想知道我們是否可以談談併購，也許還有機會在你的現金流旺盛的時候在這裡進攻。我特別在想，是否有機會真正擴大電動交通領域的規模，無論是幾個有趣的附加裝置還是更大一點的東西，以使其規模比可能的速度更快一點。目前的步伐？

I appreciate the question, Scott. And first of all, I would say that with respect to M&A more generally, we said our priorities will be Electrical. They will be Aerospace. And then on the margin, if we could find the right asset, we would consider an acquisition in eMobility as well. But I think the broader message for the company is that we have enormous growth opportunities in front of us, the organic opportunities that we're looking at across the business and our ability to grow organically. And I'd say, today, there are just growth opportunities every place.

我很欣賞這個問題，斯科特。首先，我想說，就更廣泛的併購而言，我們說我們的優先事項將是電氣。他們將是航空航天。然後，如果我們能找到合適的資產，我們也會考慮收購 eMobility。但我認為，對公司來說更廣泛的訊息是，我們面前有巨大的成長機會，我們正在整個業務中尋找有機機會，以及我們有機成長的能力。我想說，今天，每個地方都有成長機會。

And unlike perhaps some times past, we don't need to do deals to significantly grow the company. And that's true as well in eMobility. As you heard in Tom's presentation, we just had another quarter of huge wins. $600 million, Tom, was the number, I believe, in terms of quarter-over-quarter change?

與過去的某些時期不同的是，我們不需要透過交易來顯著發展公司。在電動交通領域也是如此。正如您在湯姆的演講中聽到的，我們剛剛又取得了四分之一的巨大勝利。湯姆，我認為就季度環比變化而言，這個數字是 6 億美元嗎？

Yes, yes. It's up 25%.

是的是的。上漲了25%。

So each one of these wins in eMobility just results in just enormous growth for the organization. And so we set this chart of being $2 billion to $4 billion by 2030. We will be selective. We will essentially -- as we talked about in some of the prior conversations, we'll make sure that we're going to play in eMobility, where we have the ability to leverage our scale, our technology and the expertise in our core electrical business.

因此，電動交通領域的每一項勝利都會為組織帶來巨大的成長。因此，我們設定了到 2030 年將達到 20 億至 40 億美元的圖表。我們將進行選擇性。正如我們在之前的一些對話中談到的那樣，我們將確保我們將在電動車領域發揮作用，我們有能力利用我們的規模、技術和核心電氣方面的專業知識商業。

That's where we have the right to win. That's where we have the right to play, and that's where we can really deliver attractive margins for Eaton. And so that's really strategically what we're focused on, with respect to the areas of interest that we have in eMobility. So it really is about power distribution, power protection, doing the same things that we do in our core Electrical business. We get scale that we can leverage into eMobility. At the same time, leverage that scale back into our core Electrical business.

這就是我們有權利獲勝的地方。這就是我們有權發揮作用的地方，也是我們真正能為伊頓提供有吸引力的利潤的地方。因此，這確實是我們在策略上關注的重點，涉及我們對電動車感興趣的領域。所以它實際上是關於配電、電力保護，做與我們在核心電氣業務中所做的相同的事情。我們獲得了可用於電動交通的規模。同時，將這一規模重新納入我們的核心電氣業務。

So I'd say today, you could expect us in terms of the thinking about M&A. Tuck-ins, things that are very much digestible. Those are the kinds of opportunities we're looking at in general, and those are the things today that I think makes sense for the company in terms of where we are today, with respect to our organic growth opportunities in front of us.

所以我今天想說，你可以期待我們對併購的思考。塞進東西，非常容易消化的東西。這些是我們整體關注的機會，我認為這些是今天對公司有意義的事情，就我們今天的處境而言，就我們面前的有機成長機會而言。

Yes. Just to add a little bit more. The long-term target, as Craig said and we said in the prepared remarks, up 25%. But even since last quarter, our mature year wins was up 145%.

是的。只是再補充一點。正如克雷格和我們在準備好的演講中所說，長期目標是成長 25%。但即使自上個季度以來，我們的成熟年獲勝率仍增加了 145%。

That said, we've got a ton of flexibility. Net leverage on the balance sheet, 1.5. So we're always looking, but we do have a lot of food on the table, as Craig said.

也就是說，我們有很大的靈活性。資產負債表上的淨槓桿比率為1.5。所以我們一直在尋找，但正如克雷格所說，我們的桌子上確實有很多食物。

That's helpful. And guys, just to back up a little bit. If you think about Eaton historically, had been a company that always manage price around raw materials, particularly kind of steel and copper. Is the algorithm more likely in the future going to be pricing around the value you're adding or perhaps pricing kind of dislocates from the underlying commodities? Or is that just kind of a bridge too far from how kind of customers are conditioned?

這很有幫助。夥計們，只是支持一下。如果你回顧伊頓的歷史，它是一家始終圍繞原材料（尤其是鋼鐵和銅）管理價格的公司。未來演算法是否更有可能圍繞您所增加的價值進行定價，或者定價是否會與基礎商品脫節？或者說這只是一座距離顧客條件太遠的橋樑？

Yes. I'd like to think, Scott, that we were always value pricing, but I think I get your broader message with respect to the whole market dynamics around price versus cost. And certainly, when you're in a capacity-constrained market, it certainly gives you a bit more leverage than you've had historically. But I'd just say, in general, as we think about the strategy for the company is that we intend to earn our margin accretion by running our businesses better, by running the company better and eliminating waste and inefficiencies. And we'll recover inflation where we see it through price.

是的。史考特，我想我們一直都是價值定價，但我想我得到了你關於價格與成本的整個市場動態的更廣泛的資訊。當然，當您處於容量有限的市場時，它肯定會為您提供比歷史上更多的槓桿作用。但我只想說，總的來說，當我們考慮公司的策略時，我們打算透過更好地經營我們的業務、更好地經營公司並消除浪費和低效率來賺取利潤成長。我們將透過價格來恢復通貨膨脹。

But the margin expansion for the company, we really intend to rely on volume leverage, improving operating efficiencies in the way we run the company. And those opportunities, by the way, despite record profitability, as I said in my outbound commentary, those opportunities are everywhere. We're still not running the company nearly as efficiently as we know we can.

但對於公司的利潤率擴張，我們確實打算依靠銷售槓桿，提高我們營運公司的營運效率。順便說一句，儘管盈利創紀錄，但正如我在出境評論中所說，這些機會無處不在。我們仍然沒有像我們所知的那樣有效地經營公司。

Our next question is from Steve Tusa from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

Congrats on the good results. Just trying to reconcile the $850 million in orders, with I think you said 20% of the mega products have started. That's, obviously, a pretty big number but $850 million in orders is relatively small. I mean, I guess that just speaks to where you guys are, the thing starts and then you get the order. Like can you just reconcile those 2 numbers?

恭喜取得好成績。只是試著協調 8.5 億美元的訂單，我想你說過 20% 的大型產品已經開始生產。顯然，這是一個相當大的數字，但 8.5 億美元的訂單相對較小。我的意思是，我想這正好說明了你們在哪裡，事情開始了，然後你們就收到訂單了。就像你能調和這兩個數字嗎？

Yes. And it's really -- you really can't necessarily recognize -- reconcile those 2 numbers and -- because a start doesn't mean that we've even got an opportunity to bid the project yet, much less a negotiation or a win. And so you really can't reconcile those 2 numbers. And I know it's such a big number and a very attractive one that everybody is trying to get their head around exactly how it's going to impact revenue for the organization. But those 2 numbers, you really can't reconcile them.

是的。這確實是——你真的不一定認識到——調和這兩個數字——因為開始並不意味著我們甚至有機會投標該項目，更不用說談判或獲勝了。所以你真的無法協調這兩個數字。我知道這是一個非常大的數字，而且非常有吸引力，每個人都在努力弄清楚它將如何影響組織的收入。但這兩個數字，你真的無法調和它們。

What we're trying to provide is a bit of a framework is this win rate of 40%, which is essentially slightly above our underlying market shares in North America as an indication of what you can expect as these projects play out into the future. But you really can't link the 20% to the $850 million.

我們試圖提供的框架是 40% 的勝率，這基本上略高於我們在北美的基礎市場份額，表明您對這些項目未來的發展有何期望。但你確實無法將 20% 與 8.5 億美元連結起來。

Well, I mean, I think you just did. You basically said it's out in front of you. Yes. I think you just explained it. And then just one last one on the kind of stock and ship business, if you will. I know you guys do -- you're a bit more systems-oriented, but Hubbell today continue to talk about destocking, and there's a lot of other industrials talking about that.

嗯，我的意思是，我想你剛剛做到了。你基本上是說它就在你面前。是的。我想你剛剛已經解釋過了。如果你願意的話，最後一篇是關於股票和船舶業務的。我知道你們是這樣的——你們更注重系統，但哈貝爾今天繼續談論去庫存，還有很多其他工業在談論這個問題。

Are you guys seeing that in parts of your business, and you just kind of blowing through it because the other businesses, the supply-demand equation is just so strong that you're kind of weathering some destock in some parts of the business? Maybe just talk about some of those flow businesses and what you're seeing on the distribution side.

你們是否在你們的部分業務中看到了這一點，而你們只是因為其他業務的供需方程式如此強大而忍受著某些業務的去庫存？也許只是談談其中一些流量業務以及您在分銷方面看到的情況。

No, I think you've summarized it well. I mean, we are seeing very similar trends in some of the shorter-cycle businesses inside of our company, whether that's residential or whether what we're seeing today in the MOEM segment or the IT channel. We, too, are seeing a slowdown. And we, too, are -- experienced a bit of destocking in certain aspects of the business. And so that -- those trends that others have talked about are certainly evident in our business as well.

不，我認為你總結得很好。我的意思是，我們在公司內部的一些短週期業務中看到了非常相似的趨勢，無論是住宅業務還是我們今天在 MOEM 領域或 IT 頻道看到的業務。我們也看到經濟放緩。我們在業務的某些方面也經歷了一些去庫存的過程。因此，其他人談論的那些趨勢在我們的業務中也很明顯。

But I think you hit the nail on the head when you said that the other parts of the business, our systems and large project business, our data center business, the other pieces where we're seeing the strength is just overwhelming those spots where we're having this weakness. Now in Europe, we talked about it in our commentary, we did see weakness in Europe. And those trends clearly showed up in our European electrical business in the quarter. It's one of the reasons why we reduced the guidance there.

但我認為，當你說業務的其他部分，我們的系統和大型專案業務，我們的資料中心業務，我們看到的優勢的其他部分壓倒了我們的那些地方時，我認為你擊中了要害。都有這個弱點現在在歐洲，我們在評論中談到了這一點，我們確實看到了歐洲的弱點。這些趨勢在本季我們的歐洲電力業務中得到了清晰的體現。這是我們減少指導的原因之一。

But by contrast, we had this really outside strength. And we continue to see outside strength in the systems and the project-related business in the Americas that offset the weakness in the flow business in North America as well as what we've seen in Europe.

但相較之下，我們擁有真正的外在力量。我們繼續看到美洲系統和專案相關業務的外部優勢，抵消了北美和歐洲流量業務的弱點。

Right. So that would actually be an easy comp for next year in those businesses, assuming things recouple the trend line.

正確的。因此，假設情況重新與趨勢線結合，那麼這些業務明年實際上將是一個簡單的比較。

Well, I mean, nothing is easy. And it's certainly probably too early to put our hand on the scale and predict what's going to happen in Europe during the course of 2024. But you're right. I mean, given the fact that those businesses are weakening, assuming the market stabilizes and the inventory destocking is behind us and we certainly have embedded some of that in our Q4 outlook, yes, it should be a relatively better year for sure in Europe.

嗯，我的意思是，沒有什麼是容易的。現在就把手放在秤上並預測 2024 年歐洲會發生什麼當然可能還為時過早。但你是對的。我的意思是，考慮到這些業務正在疲軟的事實，假設市場穩定下來，庫存去庫存已經過去，而且我們當然已經在第四季度的展望中納入了其中的一些內容，是的，歐洲肯定會是相對更好的一年。

And the next question is from Chris Snyder from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的克里斯·史奈德。

I wanted to follow up on some of the data center commentary. So I think you said negotiations up 4x in Q3, so building as the year goes on. Is that increase in conversations all driven by AI? Are you seeing a broadening base of customers that are talking to you on the data center topic? And then when we think about the AI tailwinds, is there any benefit in 2023? Or is the tailwind from that really more 2024?

我想跟進一些資料中心評論。所以我認為你說第三季的談判增加了 4 倍，因此隨著時間的推移而不斷增加。對話的增加都是由人工智慧驅動的嗎？您是否發現與您談論資料中心主題的客戶群正在擴大？那麼當我們思考人工智慧的順風車時，2023 年會有什麼好處嗎？或者說 2024 年的順風車真的會更多嗎？

Yes. No, appreciate the question. It's obviously a topic that's gotten a lot of attention. And I'd say that I would tell you, first of all, while AI and ChatGPT have gotten a lot of publicity of late, it's not new. I mean, it has been around for some time. And so we have historically seen some benefit of AI embedded in the data center market. I'd tell you that, number one.

是的。不，感謝這個問題。這顯然是一個備受關注的議題。我想說的是，首先，雖然 AI 和 ChatGPT 最近得到了很多宣傳，但這並不新鮮。我的意思是，它已經存在了一段時間了。因此，我們歷史上已經看到了人工智慧嵌入資料中心市場的一些好處。我會告訴你，第一。

Secondly, as I said in my outbound commentary, yes, the AI-centric bids and orders were up 4x, but we had a 61% increase in hyperscale in general. And that is really across the broad data center market. And so without a doubt, AI will be an accelerator of growth. But the broader message is essentially more data, more information, more insights requiring more data centers. And those numbers are big and growing as well.

其次，正如我在對外評論中所說，是的，以人工智慧為中心的出價和訂單增長了 4 倍，但總體而言，超大規模增長了 61%。這確實是整個廣泛的資料中心市場的情況。因此，毫無疑問，人工智慧將成為成長的加速器。但更廣泛的資訊本質上是更多的數據、更多的資訊、更多的洞察需要更多的資料中心。這些數字很大，而且還在持續增加中。

I appreciate that. And then maybe just following up on the intersection of orders and backlog. Orders in the Americas have obviously moderated for about a year now. And your guys have built electrical backlog pretty much every quarter over that time period. So as we kind of look forward, do you expect the company to start meaningfully working into that backlog? Or are we just kind of in a period of maybe sideways backlog levels into 2024? Any color on that would be helpful.

我很感激。然後也許只是跟進訂單和積壓訂單的交集。美洲的訂單明顯放緩了大約一年。在那段時間裡，你們的人幾乎每季都會積壓電力積壓。那麼，當我們展望未來時，您是否期望公司開始有意義地處理積壓的工作？或者我們正處於 2024 年積壓水準可能橫向波動的時期？任何顏色都會有幫助。

Yes, appreciate the question, and it's certainly one that we're spending some time trying to work through ourselves. I mean, orders have moderated. We talked about in the Americas, but we also were comping a 36% increase from last year. And so moderation off of a really big number last year, and the backlog does continue to grow. I think it's really, in many ways, kind of the $64,000-question. It's backlog is a function of how much demand you're getting versus your ability to satisfy that demand. And at this point, I can only tell you based upon what we've seen and experienced to date is that we've not been able to materially eat into the backlog. We will at some point. I mean, this cannot go on forever.

是的，感謝這個問題，而且我們確實正在花一些時間嘗試解決這個問題。我的意思是，訂單已經放緩。我們談到了美洲，但我們也預計比去年增長了 36%。因此，去年的數量確實很大，積壓的數量確實在持續增加。我認為，從很多方面來說，這確實是一個價值 64,000 美元的問題。它的積壓是您收到的需求量與您滿足該需求的能力的函數。在這一點上，我只能根據我們迄今為止所看到和經歷的情況告訴你，我們還沒有能夠實質地消除積壓的訂單。我們會在某個時候。我的意思是，這種情況不可能永遠持續下去。

And we are adding some capacity. For sure, that's going to help resolve some of the lead time issues and the bottleneck issues. And so we would expect backlog at some point to turn negative, in absolute terms, because keep in mind, we're up 3x. We're running a backlog of $9.4 billion in our Electrical business, $3.1 billion in Aerospace, but $9.4 billion in Electrical, and that's 3x the historical backlog levels.

我們正在增加一些容量。當然，這將有助於解決一些交貨時間問題和瓶頸問題。因此，我們預期積壓工作在某個時候會變成負數（以絕對值計算），因為請記住，我們的數量增加了 3 倍。我們的電氣業務積壓了 94 億美元，航空航太業務積壓了 31 億美元，而電氣業務積壓了 94 億美元，是歷史積壓水準的 3 倍。

And so yes, one, it's a function of the fact that markets are good. And -- but secondly, it is a function of the fact we got to get out in front of some of these capacity planning things so that we can satisfy all this demand. But at some point, backlogs will turn negative.

所以，是的，第一，這是市場良好這一事實的結果。其次，這是因為我們必須事先做好一些容量規劃工作，以便我們能夠滿足所有這些需求。但到了某個時候，積壓訂單將會變成負值。

Yes. And this is what I was trying to get at in my prepared remarks, just to amplify it a little bit more. And this is where we've modeled the scenarios of meaningful order intake decline on a year-over-year basis. And given how big the backlog is right now in the backlog coverage, the 3x, as Craig said. We think even with meaningful year-over-year order intake decline and robust organic growth, this is going to take us several quarters into 2025 before we get back to historical levels so.

是的。這就是我在準備好的發言中試圖表達的內容，只是為了進一步放大它。這就是我們對訂單量逐年大幅下降的情境進行建模的地方。正如克雷格所說，考慮到目前積壓覆蓋範圍內的積壓有多大，是 3 倍。我們認為，即使訂單量年比大幅下降且有機成長強勁，到 2025 年我們仍需要幾個季度的時間才能恢復到歷史水平。

And I would say we probably never get back to historical levels if you think about it in terms of absolute terms, right? We'll be better, but we'll never probably get back to a $3 billion-kind of backlog. It's a bigger business we'll need. And so we'll run a bigger backlog simply to support the fact that it's a large, large business. But what we certainly would expect to, at some point, start eating into the backlog.

我想說，如果你從絕對角度考慮的話，我們可能永遠不會回到歷史水平，對嗎？我們會做得更好，但我們可能永遠不會回到 30 億美元的積壓狀態。我們需要更大的業務。因此，我們將進行更大的積壓工作，只是為了證明這是一項非常大的業務。但我們當然希望在某個時候開始減少積壓的工作。

The next question is from the line of Nicole DeBlase from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase。

Can we just talk a little bit about the capacity investments that you guys are making? And just the cadence of when that's going to start, kind of phasing and coming online over the next several years?

我們可以簡單談談你們正在進行的產能投資嗎？以及什麼時候開始、在未來幾年內分階段上線的節奏？

Yes. So appreciate the question, Nicole. And I would tell you that some of these investments have been made already. And we already are bringing on new capacity in products like circuit breakers and the like. Other investments are just now in the early phases. If you think about some of the investments that we're making in transformer capacity in both the regulators, and that capacity is probably order of magnitude 12 to 18 months out. So it does vary depending upon which particular piece of the investment that you're referring to.

是的。所以很感激這個問題，妮可。我想告訴你們，其中一些投資已經完成。我們已經在斷路器等產品中引入了新的產能。其他投資目前仍處於早期階段。如果您考慮我們在兩個監管機構中對變壓器容量進行的一些投資，那麼該容量可能會在 12 到 18 個月後達到一個數量級。因此，它確實會根據您所指的投資的具體部分而有所不同。

But I'd say, in all cases, the commitments have been made. In all cases, we're looking at essentially those aspects of our business where we obviously have more capacity -- more growth, more backlog than we certainly have capacity to serve it. And at this point, our teams are kind of geared up for ensuring that we execute it well and bring this capacity online. It allows us to continue to grow the company and take some market share.

但我想說，在所有情況下，承諾都已做出。在所有情況下，我們基本上都會關注我們業務的那些方面，我們顯然擁有更多的能力——更多的成長，更多的積壓，超出了我們當然有能力提供的服務。此時，我們的團隊已做好準備，確保我們能夠很好地執行該計劃並將此能力上線。它使我們能夠繼續發展公司並佔據一些市場份額。

And then just on free cash flow. Thinking about how this progresses into 2024. Can you talk a little bit about your plans to reduce working capital and other major puts and takes that could influence conversion next year?

然後就是自由現金流。想想這將如何進展到 2024 年。您能否談談減少營運資金的計劃以及可能影響明年轉換的其他主要投入和支出？

Yes. Appreciate the question, Nicole. I think the important thing is to look at year-to-date when you're looking at operating cash flow and free cash flow. I mean, we had a good quarter, but year-to-date, we're up 73% in operating cash flow and almost 90% in free cash flow. And if you look at the improvement levers for year-to-date, it's about split between higher earnings and better working capital. And if you recall, last year, we said we were investing in our customers and investing in the growth and believe that was the right decision.

是的。感謝這個問題，妮可。我認為，當您查看營運現金流和自由現金流時，重要的是查看年初至今。我的意思是，我們的季度表現不錯，但今年迄今為止，我們的營運現金流成長了 73%，自由現金流成長了近 90%。如果你看看今年迄今為止的改善槓桿，你會發現更高的收入和更好的營運資本之間的分配。如果您還記得，去年我們說過我們正在投資客戶並投資成長，並且相信這是正確的決定。

In the back half of last year, we started getting more efficient with working capital. We expect that to continue going into 2024. We're happy with our free cash flow margin this quarter of 16%. But we've got a lot of opportunity to improve in terms of inventory days on hand, getting better in terms of DSO, our cash conversion cycle. So we're not stopping here. We're happy with our progress, but we've got a lot of opportunity for better cash flow going forward.

去年下半年，我們開始提高營運資金的效率。我們預計這種情況將持續到 2024 年。我們對本季 16% 的自由現金流利潤率感到滿意。但我們有許多機會改善現有庫存天數，改善 DSO（我們的現金週轉週期）。所以我們不會在這裡停下來。我們對自己的進展感到滿意，但未來我們還有很多機會實現更好的現金流。

Next question is from the line of Julian Mitchell from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Maybe I just wanted to ask a quick question about the sort of core revenue or organic revenue outlook. So you had that very helpful slide on the main end market moving pieces. Should we sort of assume from that, that blends to about kind of 6%, 7% market growth, and then you're adding about 1 point or so of share, and that's kind of how you get that 7% to 8% organic growth number for next year that you discussed, I think, in September?

也許我只是想問一個關於核心收入或有機收入前景的簡單問題。因此，您對主要終端市場的變化非常有幫助。我們是否應該假設，這混合了大約 6%、7% 的市場增長，然後你增加了大約 1 個百分點左右的份額，這就是你如何獲得 7% 到 8% 的有機增長我認為您在9 月份討論過明年的成長數字？

I appreciate the question, Julian. And obviously, it's certainly early for us to give you kind of a definitive side on where we think 2024 will be, and we'll do that in February. But I do think that kind of the framework and the way you talked about it is very much consistent with the way we're thinking about it. We talked about kind of the exit rate of the year in that 7% to 8%. And that's kind of a good proxy for the way to think about 2024, subject to whatever changes that we see between now and the end of the year. But that -- those market outlook slides are very much consistent with our current view. And unless things go sideways someplace in the world, which we don't anticipate, that would be a good kind of starting point to think about it.

我很欣賞這個問題，朱利安。顯然，我們現在就 2024 年的情況向您提供明確的資訊當然還為時過早，我們將在 2 月做到這一點。但我確實認為這種框架和你談論它的方式與我們思考它的方式非常一致。我們談到了今年的退出率在 7% 到 8% 之間。這可以很好地體現我們對 2024 年的看法，無論我們從現在到年底之間看到什麼變化。但那些市場前景的幻燈片與我們目前的觀點非常一致。除非世界上某個地方的情況出現了我們意想不到的情況，否則這將是一個很好的思考起點。

That's helpful. And then just one thing I wanted to circle back to was around the sort of gap between the products and the systems on the electrical side. I guess, historically, you had -- those were sort of 2 sides of one coin: the product, the shorter-cycle piece; systems is the longer cycle piece and sort of where the lag one would follow the other.

這很有幫助。然後我想回顧的一件事是產品和電氣方面的系統之間的差距。我想，從歷史上看，這些就像一枚硬幣的兩面：產品，週期較短的部分；系統是週期較長的部分，並且是滯後的一個會跟隨另一個的部分。

So when we're thinking about next year, the gap between products and systems presumably narrows. Is the assumption that they sort of meet in the middle, products improve a bit, systems slows down because of comps? Or any kind of way we should think about it maybe projects or mega projects mean the systems piece sustains a very wide outgrowth versus products, for example.

因此，當我們考慮明年時，產品和系統之間的差距可能會縮小。是否假設他們在中間相遇，產品有所改進，系統因競爭而變慢？或者我們應該以任何方式思考它，例如，專案或大型專案意味著系統部分相對於產品能夠維持非常廣泛的成長。

Yes. I appreciate that question, Julian. And I would tell you from where we sit, I mean, this products versus systems view of the electrical markets, we would suggest it's probably not the most effective way to think about it in general. And it's one of the reasons why we changed our reporting structure. And we've been so much focused on the end markets that we serve. And so we really think the better model and the way -- better way to think about the company is here are the big end markets that we serve: commercial and institutional data centers, utilities, residential. These are the big end markets that we serve.

是的。我很欣賞這個問題，朱利安。我想告訴你，從我們所處的位置來看，我的意思是，從產品與電氣市場的系統角度來看，我們認為這可能不是最有效的一般思考方式。這也是我們改變報告結構的原因之一。我們非常關注我們所服務的終端市場。因此，我們確實認為更好的模式和方式——更好的思考公司的方式是我們服務的大型終端市場：商業和機構資料中心、公用事業、住宅。這些是我們服務的大型終端市場。

And in every one of these large end markets for the most part, they will accept -- can take a product. In some cases, we'll sell a system or a solution into these same end markets. And so what we tried to do and the framework that we provided is give you a sense of what we think is going to take place in these end markets.

在每一個大型終端市場中，大多數情況下，他們都會接受－可以採用一種產品。在某些情況下，我們會將系統或解決方案銷售到這些相同的終端市場。因此，我們試圖做的和我們提供的框架是讓您了解我們認為這些終端市場會發生什麼。

And where you see differences in the way our businesses perform, take Europe, for example, versus the U.S. We have today in the U.S., a much bigger percentage of our business that would go into end markets like data center and utility than we would have in our business in Europe, where they would be much more indexed into, let's say, the MOEM segment, which is in decline in Europe. Or in the residential section -- segment, which is really in decline everywhere. So I think that's a better way to think about how to model the company than this distinction between a product and a system.

我們的業務表現方式存在差異，以歐洲和美國為例。我們今天在美國的業務中，進入資料中心和公用事業等終端市場的比例比我們要大得多在我們歐洲的業務中，他們會更多地被納入MOEM 領域，而該領域在歐洲正在衰退。或者在住宅領域——這個領域實際上到處都在衰退。所以我認為，與產品和系統之間的差異相比，這是思考如何為公司建模的更好方法。

The next question is from Steve Volkmann from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Steve Volkmann。

Just a quick follow-up to go back to this kind of backlog thing, which I think you guys have explained pretty well. But Craig, is it a reasonable planning assumption that we end 2024 at sort of whatever the new normal is for backlogs that's slightly higher than historical number?

只是一個快速跟進，回到這種積壓的事情，我認為你們已經解釋得很好了。但是克雷格，我們在 2024 年結束時積壓訂單數量略高於歷史數字，這是否是一個合理的規劃假設？

Yes. I tell you. I wish I had an answer to that question definitively, Steve, in terms of what that backlog is going to look like at the end of 2024. I can tell you what we said about this year, that we didn't anticipate this year that we could materially eat into the backlog because, once again, we knew what the underlying orders look like. We understood, essentially have a very good view on what our markets would be and what our capacity is. We are bringing on some new capacity that will come online in 2024. That will help us eat into the backlog.

是的。我告訴你。史蒂夫，我希望我能明確地回答這個問題，即 2024 年底積壓的情況。我可以告訴你我們今年所說的內容，我們沒有預料到今年會出現這種情況。我們可以實質地消化積壓的訂單，因為我們再一次知道基本訂單是什麼樣的。我們知道，基本上對我們的市場和我們的能力有很好的了解。我們正在引入一些將於 2024 年上線的新產能。這將有助於我們解決積壓的問題。

Having said that, are we going to end 2024 at the same level as we are today? We would hope, quite frankly, that we can reduce backlog during the course of 2024. We would view that as a successful year all else being equal because it's given us the ability to shorten lead times and do a better job of responding to customer demand. But sitting here today, I mean, to suggest that I would have any visibility into what that number is going to be at the end of 2024 just would not be realistic. And so we hope that we can reduce backlog by essentially shortening up some lead times. But at this point, if the markets continue to be as robust as they've been, that will be challenging.

話雖如此，到 2024 年結束時我們的水平還會與今天相同嗎？坦白說，我們希望能夠在 2024 年期間減少積壓。我們認為，在其他條件相同的情況下，這是成功的一年，因為它使我們有能力縮短交貨時間並更好地響應客戶需求。但今天坐在這裡，我的意思是，建議我對 2024 年底這個數字有任何了解是不切實際的。因此，我們希望能夠透過本質上縮短一些交貨時間來減少積壓。但目前，如果市場繼續像以前一樣強勁，那將是一個挑戰。

Yes. Even reducing backlog, it would be hard to imagine based on the scenarios we've looked at that we would get our backlog at the end of 2024 to our historical backlog coverage.

是的。即使減少積壓，根據我們所研究的場景，也很難想像我們會在 2024 年底將積壓達到歷史積壓覆蓋率。

Yes. Well, we probably will never get back there. But hopefully, we can reduce backlog.

是的。好吧，我們可能永遠不會再回到那裡。但希望我們可以減少積壓。

For sure.

一定。

Great. That's definitely helpful. And then I'm going to pivot to the AI question, but I want to ask it from the other point of view, which is that I think you guys actually capture a fair amount of data from collected IoT devices, et cetera. So can you just comment on sort of where you are in terms of collecting your own data and providing services and systems that leverage that data into maybe new business models over the next few years?

偉大的。這絕對有幫助。然後我將轉向人工智慧問題，但我想從另一個角度來問這個問題，即我認為你們實際上從收集的物聯網設備等中捕獲了大量數據。那麼，您能否評論一下您在收集自己的數據以及提供服務和系統方面的進展，以便在未來幾年將這些數據利用到新的商業模式中？

No, definitely appreciate that question. And as you know, this is independent of AI. We had been on this journey inside the company to really digitize and digitalize our company. And so that what we said is that every single product, every new product that we develop, we expect it to have a microprocessor to be able to stream and process data and information.

不，絕對感謝這個問題。如您所知，這與人工智慧無關。我們在公司內部一直在努力實現公司的真正數位化和數位化。因此，我們所說的是，我們開發的每一個產品、每一個新產品，我們都希望它有一個能夠串流和處理資料和資訊的微處理器。

And so that has been going on inside of the company for the better part of the last 5 years. And as a result of that, we have been able to create some really attractive and interesting new value propositions around how we essentially can monetize our own data. And it's one of the things that we wrap up in this term you'll hear us talk about called the Brightlayer platform. So we have Brightlayer for data centers, Brightlayer for utility markets and Brightlayer for residential. So this data platform that we use today to essentially find ways to monetize our data either in the form of data as a service or software, is something that's happening broadly across the company. And all enabled by the fact that all of our devices today, most of our devices today, I should say, are intelligent and have the ability to stream data.

在過去 5 年的大部分時間裡，這種情況一直在公司內部發生。因此，我們已經能夠圍繞著如何從本質上將我們自己的數據貨幣化創建一些真正有吸引力且有趣的新價值主張。這是我們在本學期總結的內容之一，您將聽到我們談論 Brightlayer 平台。因此，我們有用於資料中心的 Brightlayer、用於公用事業市場的 Brightlayer 和用於住宅的 Brightlayer。因此，我們今天使用的這個數據平臺本質上是為了尋找以數據即服務或軟體的形式將我們的數據貨幣化的方法，這是整個公司正在廣泛發生的事情。而這一切的實現是因為我們今天所有的設備，我應該說，我們今天的大多數設備都是智慧的，並且具有流資料的能力。

I would encourage for those of you on the call, one of the things we're going to try to do next year as a part of our investor meeting is to invite you to our center in Houston and to show you some very real examples of software and data solutions that we're selling today in various applications to our customer base that really monetizes our data and monetizes our software.

我鼓勵各位參加電話會議的人，作為明年投資者會議的一部分，我們將嘗試做的一件事就是邀請您來到我們位於休斯頓的中心，並向您展示一些非常真實的例子我們今天在各種應用程式中向我們的客戶群銷售的軟體和數據解決方案，真正使我們的數據貨幣化並透過我們的軟體貨幣化。

So a really exciting piece of this leg that we talk about these megatrends, one of which is digitalization. We see that in the data center market. And we also see that in the way we are bringing new products and new solutions to market as well across the company.

因此，這一站的一個非常令人興奮的部分是我們談論這些大趨勢，其中之一就是數位化。我們在資料中心市場看到了這一點。我們也看到，我們將新產品和新解決方案推向市場以及整個公司的方式。

The next question is from Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。

Slide 19 is good. Obviously, very helpful. Just want to clarify a couple of things. So data center, the 16% CAGR you're forecasting through '25 now, that's for the market. So not necessarily Eaton, right? So I know you've got some market share growth ambitions there. So I just want to make that clear. And then when you talk about data center, are we talking here about the whole market? So obviously, a big chunk of that market is on-prem enterprise data centers. Or are we talking about a subset of that market? So just maybe just clarify that.

幻燈片 19 很好。顯然，非常有幫助。只是想澄清一些事情。因此，資料中心，您預測到 25 年的複合年增長率為 16%，這是針對市場的。所以不一定是伊頓，對吧？所以我知道你們有一些市場佔有率成長的野心。所以我只是想澄清這一點。那麼當你談論資料中心時，我們在這裡談論的是整個市場嗎？顯然，該市場的很大一部分是本地企業資料中心。或者我們正在談論該市場的子集？所以也許只是澄清一下。

And then within this end market matrix, I'm pretty sure that if you put this up 3 months ago, you might have had a bit more of an optimistic view on residential. Obviously, with the higher rates, et cetera, I understand why you're cautious there. And I know it's not a big end market even. But I'm actually wondering if you're starting to see deterioration real time in that market or whether it's much more sort of macro-driven?

然後在這個終端市場矩陣中，我很確定如果你把這個放在三個月前，你可能會對住宅有更樂觀的看法。顯然，由於利率較高等等，我理解為什麼你在那裡持謹慎態度。我知道這甚至不是一個大的終端市場。但我實際上想知道您是否開始看到該市場的即時惡化，或者是否更多是宏觀驅動的？

Okay. So I think there's 3 different questions there, but let's take the first one around. So the answer to the question is, yes, it is the entire market. So that 16% growth rate is reflective of what's happening in hyperscale, on-prem, colo. So it is our view of the entire market.

好的。所以我認為這裡有 3 個不同的問題，但讓我們先解決第一個問題。所以問題的答案是，是的，是整個市場。因此，16% 的成長率反映了科羅拉多州超大規模本地部署的情況。這是我們對整個市場的看法。

And yes, we would expect our businesses to grow faster than market and as a result of that, do better than what we think the underlying market is doing. To the point around residential, yes, we have seen the slowdown in residential really around the world. And we've seen it in the U.S. and what happened in single-family first. Although single family, quite frankly, had a little bit of a stronger Q4. Single-family starts were actually up some 6% in Q3. Multifamily wallet kind of record levels of units that are under construction, clearly saw a slowdown in Q3. But we're definitely seeing the slowdown in residential.

是的，我們希望我們的業務成長速度快於市場，因此，我們的業績會比我們認為的基礎市場表現更好。就住宅而言，是的，我們確實看到了世界各地住宅的放緩。我們已經在美國看到了這種情況，首先是在單戶家庭中發生的情況。儘管坦白說，單戶家庭的第四季表現稍強。第三季單戶住宅開工率實際上增加了約 6%。多戶型皮夾在建單位數量創歷史新高，第三季明顯放緩。但我們確實看到了住宅市場的放緩。

You see it most acutely, quite frankly, in Europe. Many of you see the market data coming out of Germany and France where residential housing starts are down quite significantly, and everybody has read about what's going on in China as well. But to your point, residential as a company is not the biggest piece of our market. And I think the other thing I would add to that is that one of the things we've talked about in prior meetings is that we're seeing higher electrical content in all of the new homes that are built as they meet the latest requirements for UL standards in the U.S. or other standards, IEC standards around Europe. Or we see smart homes being built, and they're putting in more smart solutions.

坦白說，你在歐洲看得最清楚。你們中的許多人都看到來自德國和法國的市場數據，這兩個國家的住宅開工量大幅下降，每個人也都了解了中國的情況。但就您而言，作為一家公司，住宅並不是我們市場中最大的一塊。我想我要補充的另一件事是，我們在之前的會議中討論過的一件事是，我們看到所有新建住宅的電氣含量更高，因為它們滿足了最新的要求美國的UL 標準或其他標準、歐洲各地的IEC 標準。或者我們看到智慧家庭正在建設中，並且他們正在投入更多智慧解決方案。

And so offsetting somewhat of that decline in units is the fact that we are seeing higher electrical content in new homes. And new homes are accounting for, quite frankly, a much higher percentage of the new housing market in general as people hold on to their legacy homes. And so yes, no question, residential has weakened up. We're seeing it in our business. But once again, the strength that we're seeing in the other end markets, big enough to offset those declines in residential.

因此，我們看到新住宅的電氣含量更高，這在一定程度上抵消了單位數量的下降。坦白說，由於人們保留著原有的房屋，新房在新房市場中所佔的比例總體上要高得多。所以，是的，毫無疑問，住宅業已經疲軟。我們在我們的業務中看到了這一點。但我們再次看到其他終端市場的強勁勢頭，足以抵消住宅市場的下滑。

Yes. Just to (inaudible) a little bit, Nigel, on that one. If you look at year-to-date and no question slowing down. But year-to-date for our overall electrical sector, we're actually positive from a residential perspective.

是的。只是（聽不清楚）一點點，奈傑爾，關於那個。如果你看看今年迄今為止的情況，毫無疑問會放緩。但今年迄今為止，對於我們整個電力產業來說，從住宅角度來看，我們實際上持樂觀態度。

And I think it's more a function of electrical content being higher, prices being better, the unit volumes would be down as they would for others.

我認為這更多是由於電力含量更高，價格更好，單位數量會像其他產品一樣下降。

Yes, I know there are 2 parts to that question. But if I can just sneak one more in. I know we're running late. The eMobility 2025 target of 1.5 is a big step-up from the prior 1.2. Does that uplift and that's sort of like that growth ramp from here to 1.5. Does that come to support in '25? Or do you expect it to be a bit more linear through the next couple of years? Does that -- is there any implications for margins? I think you've got 11% margin for 2025. How do we think about that? That's 2 questions.

是的，我知道這個問題有兩個部分。但如果我能再偷偷溜進去一次的話。我知道我們要遲到了。 eMobility 2025 目標為 1.5，較之前的 1.2 有了很大進步。這是否有所提升，有點像從這裡增長到 1.5。這會在 25 年得到支持嗎？或者您預計未來幾年它會更加線性嗎？這對利潤率有什麼影響嗎？我認為 2025 年你的利潤率為 11%。我們對此有何看法？這是2個問題。

Yes, I think that you would expect as you are well aware, Nigel, the way this market works in vehicle is that when they launch a platform, you'll see a big change in the revenue as a function of when these new platforms launch. And so I would say that the volume does tend to be kind of chunky in the space as opposed to being linear.

是的，我認為你會期望你很清楚，奈傑爾，這個市場在汽車領域的運作方式是，當他們推出一個平台時，你會看到收入隨著這些新平台推出的時間而發生巨大變化。所以我想說的是，空間中的體積確實往往是厚實的，而不是線性的。

Once the vehicle launches and it's in the market, then you'll see kind of a linear pattern of growth. But once the program first launches, you will see more of a step function change in revenue. And so between now and 2025, that business will grow. And we talked about in some of the outlook numbers that we still expect our eMobility segment to see strong growth. It's a very strong growth for 2024 in our guidance, but some of this growth will be chunky as we think about bringing on these new platforms that we've won.

一旦車輛推出並進入市場，您就會看到一種線性成長模式。但一旦該計劃首次啟動，您將看到收入發生更多階躍函數變化。因此，從現在到 2025 年，該業務將會成長。我們在一些展望數據中談到，我們仍然預計我們的電動車領域將出現強勁成長。在我們的指導中，2024 年的成長非常強勁，但當我們考慮引入我們贏得的這些新平台時，其中一些成長將是巨大的。

And our next question is from the line of Phil Buller from Berenberg.

我們的下一個問題來自 Berenberg 的 Phil Buller。

Craig, just to follow up on some of the answers you gave to the prior questions. You talked about the megatrends existing globally, which I get, but how much of the divergence between the U.S. and elsewhere would you attribute to the current economic differences, which I think is the answer you gave to Jeff's earlier question versus how much of this is just the weighting towards data center and utilities in the U.S. being much larger than Europe, which I think is how we answered Julian's question.

克雷格，我只是想跟進您對之前問題的一些回答。你談到了全球範圍內存在的大趨勢，我明白了，但是你將美國和其他地方之間的差異有多少歸因於當前的經濟差異，我認為這是你對傑夫之前的問題給出的答案，而不是其中有多少是由當前的經濟差異造成的。只是美國資料中心和公用事業的權重比歐洲大得多，我認為這就是我們回答朱利安問題的方式。

I guess I'm wondering if there's a third part to this, which is market share. So I don't know if you can comment on market share changes that you see in the U.S. or Europe, please.

我想我想知道是否還有第三部分，即市場份額。所以我不知道您是否可以對美國或歐洲的市場份額變化發表評論。

Yes. No. What I would tell you is that in simple terms, I would say no with respect to market share. When you take a look at our growth in our European business in any given quarter, you could find things bouncing around.

是的。不。我要告訴你的是，簡單來說，我對市場佔有率說不。當您查看我們歐洲業務在任何特定季度的成長時，您會發現情況正在改變。

But if you look at our growth on a 2-year stack or 3-year stack and you look at our revenues versus our peers, I think you'd find the numbers to be quite comparable. But I'd say that it is mega projects and the scale of mega projects that is driving the differences.

但如果你看看我們兩年或三年的成長，並看看我們與同行的收入，我想你會發現這些數字相當可比。但我想說，是大型專案和大型專案的規模造成了差異。

It is where we play in, let's say, the Americas versus where we play in Europe. I talked about our penetration in Europe being a lot of which is in MOEM and industrial equipment. We don't have today as broad a portfolio in some of these other segments, call it, data center. We play very well in data centers, but we're not as big a player in data centers we play in utilities, but we're not as big a player in the utility market. So we just have a broader, more complete set of solutions in the Americas that are supported by these megatrends.

這是我們在美洲比賽的地方與我們在歐洲比賽的地方。我談到我們在歐洲的滲透主要集中在機械製造商和工業設備領域。今天，我們在其他一些細分市場（稱為資料中心）中沒有如此廣泛的產品組合。我們在資料中心方面表現得很好，但我們在資料中心方面的表現不如在公用事業方面那麼大，但我們在公用事業市場方面也沒有那麼大。因此，我們在美洲擁有一套更廣泛、更完整的解決方案，並受到這些大趨勢的支持。

And the other big difference is, once again, all the stimulus dollars that are being pumped into the U.S. economy that is essentially driving outside growth. And it's driving outside growth in these same verticals. Reindustrialization of industrial facilities, investments in utility markets, investments in CHIPs and the CHIP Act. And so you're finding these kind of broader trends being also turbocharged by government stimulus spending.

另一個巨大的差異是，所有註入美國經濟的刺激資金基本上都在推動外部成長。它正在推動這些垂直領域的外部成長。工業設施的再工業化、公用事業市場投資、CHIP 投資和 CHIP 法案。因此，你會發現這些更廣泛的趨勢也受到政府刺激支出的推動。

Just as a follow-up to that quickly, if I may. What's your current take on the EU policies these days? Obviously, everyone is quite bullish about the green deal and Net Zero Industry Act a year or so ago. Do you think that they'll ever lay an egg in a meaningful way like the U.S. ones do? Or is that optimistic?

如果可以的話，就像快速跟進一樣。您目前對歐盟政策有何看法？顯然，大約一年前，每個人都對綠色協議和淨零工業法案相當看好。你認為他們會像美國一樣以有意義的方式產卵嗎？或者說這是樂觀的嗎？

No. I think -- I mean, I think in many ways even more than the U.S., I mean the European government has demonstrated their commitment to essentially moving towards a low-carbon society. And they're putting both dollars behind it and just as importantly, they're putting regulatory changes in place to drive the adoption of these green technologies, right?

不，我認為——我的意思是，我認為在許多方面甚至比美國更重要，我的意思是歐洲政府已經表明了他們對實質上邁向低碳社會的承諾。他們投入了資金，同樣重要的是，他們正在實施監管變革以推動這些綠色技術的採用，對嗎？

So -- but as you can imagine, there's a lot going on in Europe today. There's a lot of challenges on a lot of different fronts in Europe that I think are today getting in the way and holding back some of the benefits that you would ultimately see in that space. And as we talk about the manufacturing segment, Europe is much more -- has been much more of a manufacturing engine for the world in places like Germany. And those markets have clearly slowed dramatically. So -- but where we participate, think about data centers, for example. Our data center business in Europe is also up dramatically.

所以——但正如你可以想像的那樣，今天歐洲發生了很多事情。我認為歐洲在許多不同方面都面臨著許多挑戰，這些挑戰今天阻礙了您最終在該領域看到的一些好處。當我們談論製造業時，歐洲在德國等地更像是世界的製造業引擎。這些市場顯然已經大幅放緩。因此，例如，在我們參與的地方，請考慮資料中心。我們在歐洲的資料中心業務也大幅成長。

So where we have kind of have some of these megatrends energy transition where we play in energy transition markets, those markets are up dramatically in Europe. But the business mix is quite different. And in that case, it's being held back. Those benefits are not showing up because it's being overwhelmed by some of these other structural issues in some of the legacy businesses.

因此，我們在能源轉型市場上有一些能源轉型大趨勢，這些市場在歐洲急劇上升。但業務組合卻截然不同。在這種情況下，它就會被推遲。這些好處並沒有顯現出來，因為它被一些遺留業務中的其他一些結構性問題所淹沒。

Got it. And finally, if I may just squeeze one very quick one in on Aerospace. There's no change to the 10% to 12% range for the year. But at the 9 months, I think you're 13% and a bit. So that implies a bit of a moderation in Q4 from somewhere. So can you talk about what's happening there, please? I assume it's defense or perhaps there's something else going on that.

知道了。最後，我可以快速地在航空航太領域擠進一門課嗎？今年 10% 至 12% 的範圍沒有變化。但在 9 個月時，我認為你的比例是 13% 左右。因此，這意味著第四季度有所放緩。那麼您能談談那裡發生的事情嗎？我認為這是防守或可能還有其他原因。

Yes, yes. I don't think -- I wouldn't overread that in terms of -- we don't anticipate a slowdown in Aerospace. As we talked about in our prepared remarks that the orders continue to grow. Backlog continues to grow. So I would not overread an implied number for Aerospace in Q4. We still are very much pleased with that market and then expect to see longer-term kind of growth being quite attractive there.

是的是的。我不認為——我不會過度解讀——我們預計航空航天業不會放緩。正如我們在準備好的發言中談到的那樣，訂單繼續增長。積壓訂單持續成長。因此，我不會過度解讀第四季航空航天的隱含數字。我們仍然對該市場非常滿意，並期望看到那裡的長期成長相當有吸引力。

Our next question is from Joe O'Dea from Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Joe O'Dea。

I'll keep it to one. I'm interested in how you're kind of evaluating the opportunities on mega projects and the degree to which maybe even thinking that it means win rates can't be as high as they have historically just because of the magnitude of the opportunity that's out there.

我會把它保留為一。我感興趣的是你如何評估大型專案的機會，以及在多大程度上認為這意味著獲勝率不能像歷史上那麼高，只是因為機會的大小在那裡。

And so I'm sure it's inspiring some competitors to invest more in some of these verticals as well. And where are you directing your investment dollars most to maybe position yourself best for, at least, as good, if not higher win rates moving forward when we think about the verticals that you outlined on Slide 19, where you want your sort of exposure to those to get that much bigger over time and outpace the market?

因此，我確信這也會激勵一些競爭對手在其中一些垂直領域中進行更多投資。當我們考慮您在投影片 19 中概述的垂直行業時，您將把您的投資資金投入到哪裡，以便讓自己處於最佳位置，至少獲得同樣好的贏率（如果不是更高的話）。隨著時間的推移，那些公司會變得越來越大、超越市場？

I would say that in many ways, it's quite the opposite. If you think about today where we tend to do well as a company and where our win rate tends to be higher, the bigger the project, the more complicated and sophisticated the project, the more likely it is that Eaton will win and garner a higher share.

我想說的是，在很多方面，情況恰恰相反。如果你想想今天我們作為一家公司在哪些方面往往做得很好，我們的獲勝率往往較高，項目越大，項目越複雜和精密，伊頓就越有可能獲勝並獲得更高的回報。分享。

So if you think about today, the big mega projects in our win rate on a mega project versus our historical underlying market share, our win rate would be higher. It would be higher because once again, if you think about our total ability to deliver a complete solution, medium voltage, low voltage and everything in between. Today, we have a much better capability than most of the companies that we're competing against in the North America market where most of these mega projects have taken place.

因此，如果你今天想想，我們在大型專案上的獲勝率與我們歷史上的基礎市場份額相比，我們的獲勝率會更高。它會更高，因為再一次考慮我們提供完整解決方案（中壓、低壓以及介於兩者之間的所有解決方案）的整體能力。如今，我們比北美市場上的大多數競爭對手擁有更好的能力，大多數大型專案都在北美市場進行。

And so yes, without a doubt, the competitive dynamic is such that it's an attractive space. I will tell you that for the most part, most companies are struggling with the same capacity constraint that we are. So today, with respect to a disruptor coming in and doing something that would somehow change the dynamics around underlying market share, highly, highly unlikely because there's simply not enough capacity to do it.

因此，毫無疑問，競爭的動態使得它成為一個有吸引力的空間。我會告訴你，在很大程度上，大多數公司都在與我們一樣面臨同樣的產能限制。因此，今天，對於顛覆者進來並做一些以某種方式改變基礎市場份額動態的事情，可能性非常非常小，因為根本沒有足夠的能力來做到這一點。

And then secondly, you need the capability. And if you think about the size and the scale of these mega projects, you need a company who has pedigree. A company who you can rely upon and trust to essentially bring these projects home for you. The stuff that we do is mission-critical. And it's not the kind of place that you would tend to find companies or customers testing or trialing somebody new.

其次，你需要能力。如果您考慮這些大型專案的規模和規模，您需要一家有歷史的公司。一家您可以信賴和信任的公司，基本上可以為您帶回這些項目。我們所做的事情是關鍵任務。這不是那種你會發現公司或客戶測試或試用新人的地方。

Next question is from Brett Linzey from Mizuho.

下一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Brett Linzey。

Just back to the billion investment. Is there any way to think about the mix of what's expense versus capitalized? And is this going to be a program you're going to provide some quarterly guidance on, like you've done with some of the restructuring programs in the past?

回到上億投資。有什麼方法可以考慮費用與資本化的組合嗎？您是否會像過去的一些重組計劃那樣提供一些季度指引？

No, I would say today, we would not intend to provide any particular quarterly guidance or clarity on that, other than we can certainly let you know when the new capacity comes online. I think that's perfectly fair. But the other thing I would think about is that yes, it's a big investment. There is going to be a mix of capital and expense. That's all kind of embedded -- going to be embedded in our guidance as we go forward.

不，我今天要說的是，我們不打算提供任何特定的季度指導或澄清，除非我們當然可以讓您知道新產能何時上線。我認為這是完全公平的。但我要考慮的另一件事是，是的，這是一項很大的投資。資本和費用將會混合在一起。這些都是嵌入的——隨著我們的前進，它們將嵌入我們的指導中。

But as the company has gotten bigger and our denominator, revenue and everything else has gotten bigger, we have historically spent about 3% of revenue in CapEx. That number may pop up to 3.5% order magnitude. But so it's not going to be -- it's a big number. It's going to give us the ability to solve a lot of bottlenecks. But in the big scheme of things, you're talking about maybe 0.5 point movement, in terms of our CapEx spend here. So yes, there's going to be some expense associated with it as well. But once again, all of that embedded in kind of the 30% kind of incremental numbers that we talked about for planning purposes.

但隨著公司變得越來越大，我們的分母、收入和其他一切都變得越來越大，我們歷來將大約 3% 的收入用於資本支出。這個數字可能會高達 3.5% 的數量級。但它不會是——這是一個很大的數字。它將使我們有能力解決許多瓶頸。但從總體來看，就我們的資本支出而言，您談論的可能是 0.5 個點的變動。所以是的，也會有一些與之相關的費用。但再一次，所有這些都嵌入到我們出於規劃目的而討論的 30% 增量數字中。

Okay. Thanks, guys. We reached the end of the call. I appreciate everybody's questions. As always, our team will do a follow-up call with you guys, if you need to have more questions. Thanks for joining us. Have a good day, guys.

好的。多謝你們。我們通話結束了。我感謝大家的提問。像往常一樣，如果您需要有更多問題，我們的團隊將與您進行後續通話。感謝您加入我們。祝大家有美好的一天。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T Teleconference service. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，我們今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與並使用 AT&T 電話會議服務。您現在可以斷開連線。