伊頓 (ETN) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Eaton First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) And as a reminder, your conference is being recorded.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的支持，歡迎來到伊頓 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，您的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Yan Jin. Please go ahead.

現在我想把會議轉交給你們的主持人嚴進。請繼續。

Good morning. Thank you all for joining us for Eaton's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. With me today are Craig Arnold, our Chairman and CEO; and Tom Okray, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Our agenda today includes the opening remarks by Craig, then he will turn it over to Tom, who will highlight our company's performance in the fourth quarter. As we have done on our past calls, we'll be taking questions at the end of the Craig's closing commentary.

早上好。感謝大家參加伊頓 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。今天和我在一起的是我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Craig Arnold；執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Tom Okray。我們今天的議程包括克雷格的開場白，然後他將把它交給湯姆，他將重點介紹我們公司在第四季度的業績。正如我們在過去的電話會議上所做的那樣，我們將在克雷格的閉幕評論結束時回答問題。

The press release and the presentation we'll go through today have been posted on our website. This presentation, including adjusted earnings per share, adjusted free cash flow and other non-GAAP measures. They are reconciled in the appendix. A webcast of this call is accessible on our website and will be available for replay. I would like to remind you that our commentary today will include statements related to the expected future results of the company and are therefore forward-looking statements. Our actual results may differ materially from our forecasted projections due to a wide range of risks and uncertainties that are described in our earnings release and the presentation.

我們今天將通過的新聞稿和演示文稿已發佈在我們的網站上。此演示文稿包括調整後的每股收益、調整後的自由現金流量和其他非 GAAP 指標。它們在附錄中進行了協調。可以在我們的網站上訪問此電話會議的網絡廣播，並且可以重播。我想提醒您，我們今天的評論將包括與公司預期未來業績相關的陳述，因此屬於前瞻性陳述。由於我們的收益發布和演示文稿中描述的各種風險和不確定性，我們的實際結果可能與我們的預測存在重大差異。

With that, I will turn it over to Craig.

有了這個，我會把它交給克雷格。

Okay. Thanks, Yan. We'll start with some highlights of the quarter on Page 3.

好的。謝謝，嚴。我們將從第 3 頁的本季度的一些亮點開始。

And I'll lead off by noting that we've delivered another strong quarter. We generated adjusted EPS of $1.88 for the quarter, well above our guidance range, record for the quarter and up 16% from prior year. And we continue to post strong margins. Q1 record of 19.7%, up 90 basis points over prior year. Our sales were $5.5 billion, up 15% organically, our third quarter in a row of 15% organic growth.

我首先要指出的是，我們已經交付了另一個強勁的季度。我們本季度的調整後每股收益為 1.88 美元，遠高於我們的指導範圍，本季度創歷史新高，比去年同期增長 16%。我們繼續保持強勁的利潤率。第一季度創紀錄的 19.7%，比上年增長 90 個基點。我們的銷售額為 55 億美元，有機增長 15%，這是我們連續第三個季度實現 15% 的有機增長。

We have particular strength in our Electrical Americas business, which was up more than 20% including very strong growth in commercial, institutional, utility and data center market. We also had exceptional growth in our Commercial Aerospace and eMobility businesses.

我們的電氣美洲業務尤其具有優勢，該業務增長超過 20%，其中包括商業、機構、公用事業和數據中心市場的強勁增長。我們的商業航空航天和電動汽車業務也取得了非凡的增長。

Our orders also came in ahead of expectations for the quarter. On a rolling 12-month basis, Electrical orders were up 13% and Aerospace orders increased by 21%, which led to another quarter of record backlogs, up 39% for Electrical and 27% for Aerospace. I think it's well understood at this point, but I'd note once again that reindustrialization, infrastructure spending along with secular growth trends of electrification, energy transition and digitalization have fundamentally changed the growth prospects for our company.

我們的訂單也超出了本季度的預期。在連續 12 個月的基礎上，電氣訂單增長 13%，航空航天訂單增長 21%，這導致另一個季度的積壓訂單再創新高，電氣訂單增長 39%，航空航天訂單增長 27%。我認為這一點很好理解，但我要再次指出，再工業化、基礎設施支出以及電氣化、能源轉型和數字化的長期增長趨勢從根本上改變了我們公司的增長前景。

Lastly, free cash flow in the quarter was nearly $300 million, driven by higher net income and improved working capital. So I'd say a good start to the year that keeps us on track to deliver our free cash flow guidance despite higher revenue and receivable balances. So on balance, I'd say we're off to a very good start for the year.

最後，在淨收入增加和營運資金改善的推動下，本季度的自由現金流接近 3 億美元。因此，儘管收入和應收賬款餘額增加，但我會說今年開局良好，這使我們能夠按計劃提供自由現金流量指導。所以總的來說，我想說我們今年的開局非常好。

Moving to Page 4. I'd like to once again highlight that Eaton is marking its 100th anniversary of our listing on the New York Stock Exchange. And as many of you saw, we celebrated by ringing the bell on in early March. Eaton is 1 of 32 companies who have reached this milestone. And I'd say our longevity on the exchange and our resiliency is really a function of our ability to adapt to a changing world. But what has remained constant over that time is the spirit of innovation that guides us and our commitment to all of our stakeholders, our employees, our customers, our shareholders, communities and all of society.

轉到第 4 頁。我想再次強調，伊頓正在紀念我們在紐約證券交易所上市 100 週年。正如你們許多人所見，我們在 3 月初敲響了鐘聲來慶祝。伊頓是達到這一里程碑的 32 家公司之一。我想說我們在交易所的長壽和我們的彈性實際上是我們適應不斷變化的世界的能力的函數。但在那段時間裡始終不變的是指導我們的創新精神以及我們對所有利益相關者、我們的員工、我們的客戶、我們的股東、社區和整個社會的承諾。

Now as Eaton stands at the forefront of perhaps the most significant growth trends that we'll see in our lifetime, we're convinced that our best days are still ahead of us. And we've been busy planning for this moment. As we look at Eaton today, we position ourselves as our customers' trusted partner across power management spectrum. And Slide 5 provides a good example of how we're playing across the electrical value chain from power generation to power distribution, to how it's consumed in various applications. We're building a business that supports our customers with a full range of end-to-end solutions beginning with deep domain expertise in specific applications and the ability to specify electrical solutions. We're now providing intelligent electrical products, offering Data as a Service, providing software solutions, doing installation commissioning and providing aftermarket services. Our role has changed from simply selling components to helping owners fulfill their changing energy needs.

現在，伊頓站在我們有生之年可能會看到的最重要增長趨勢的最前沿，我們相信我們最好的日子還在前面。我們一直在忙著為這一刻做計劃。當我們審視今天的伊頓時，我們將自己定位為客戶在整個電源管理領域值得信賴的合作夥伴。幻燈片 5 提供了一個很好的例子，說明我們如何在從發電到配電的整個電氣價值鏈中發揮作用，再到它在各種應用中的消耗方式。我們正在建立一個業務，以全方位的端到端解決方案為我們的客戶提供支持，從特定應用領域的深厚專業知識和指定電氣解決方案的能力開始。我們現在提供智能電器產品、提供數據即服務、提供軟件解決方案、安裝調試和提供售後服務。我們的角色已經從簡單地銷售組件轉變為幫助業主滿足他們不斷變化的能源需求。

We're also proving that we can leverage our technology and create scale solutions that serve all of our end markets. For those of you who are with us at our March meeting in New York, you saw an example of this and a new product we call Breaktor. Breaktor is a combination of a breaker and a contactor, we developed the technology in our Electrical business and have successfully sold it in our eMobility and Aerospace businesses. And as the electrification of everything continues, the need for Eaton's technology and solutions will certainly continue to grow.

我們還證明，我們可以利用我們的技術並創建可服務於我們所有終端市場的規模化解決方案。對於參加我們 3 月在紐約舉行的會議的各位，您看到了這方面的示例和我們稱為 Breaktor 的新產品。 Breaktor 是斷路器和接觸器的組合，我們在電氣業務中開發了這項技術，並已在我們的電動汽車和航空航天業務中成功銷售。隨著一切電氣化的繼續，對伊頓技術和解決方案的需求肯定會繼續增長。

And the primary source of this growth is coming from the mega trends that we've discussed. In addition to electrification, we're benefiting from energy transition from digitalization and the reindustrialization of the U.S. and European market, and we're seeing record capital spending levels. And as you know, this capital is being supported by an unprecedented level of infrastructure spending by governments around the world. And while early, we're tracking a large number of infrastructure-related projects.

這種增長的主要來源來自我們討論過的大趨勢。除了電氣化，我們還受益於數字化帶來的能源轉型以及美國和歐洲市場的再工業化，我們看到創紀錄的資本支出水平。正如你所知，這筆資金得到了世界各國政府前所未有的基礎設施支出的支持。雖然早期，我們正在跟踪大量與基礎設施相關的項目。

For example, in our Electrical Americas business, we've already seen over $1 billion of projects and have won roughly $250 million of orders. And as this chart reflects, we're also at the beginning of a strong aerospace growth cycle and seeing rapid adoption of electric vehicles. Collectively, these trends have positioned the company for strong growth for the foreseeable future.

例如，在我們的 Electrical Americas 業務中，我們已經看到超過 10 億美元的項目並贏得了大約 2.5 億美元的訂單。正如這張圖表所反映的，我們也正處於一個強勁的航空航天增長周期的開始，並且看到電動汽車的快速採用。總的來說，這些趨勢使公司在可預見的未來實現了強勁增長。

Next, on Page 7 of the presentation, we provide an example of how reindustrialization is creating a record number of mega projects, and we define a mega project as a project with more than $1 billion of capital. Since 2021, announced nonresidential mega projects have a cumulative value of almost $600 billion, at least 3x the historical run rate for nonresidential projects. And this is North America only. $600 billion announced over the last 9 quarters, $400 billion more than historical run rate. These projects are certainly in various phases of design, planning or construction. But as you can see, these secular trends are translating into specific projects, and they haven't slowed down. There's billions more in the planning stages, which will certainly sustain our growth for years to come.

接下來，在演示文稿的第 7 頁，我們提供了再工業化如何創造創紀錄數量的大型項目的示例，我們將大型項目定義為資本超過 10 億美元的項目。自 2021 年以來，宣布的非住宅大型項目的累計價值接近 6000 億美元，至少是非住宅項目歷史運行率的 3 倍。這只是北美。過去 9 個季度宣布了 6000 億美元，比歷史運行率高出 4000 億美元。這些項目肯定處於設計、規劃或建設的不同階段。但正如您所見，這些長期趨勢正在轉化為具體項目，而且並未放緩。還有數十億處於規劃階段，這肯定會維持我們未來幾年的增長。

On Slide 8, we take you from the $400 billion of announced mega projects and what it means for the electrical industry. We estimate that the electrical content on these projects is in a range of 3% to 5% of the total project value. This suggests $12 billion to $20 billion of incremental electrical revenue. Keep in mind, there's certainly a wide range of electrical content on various projects, and our exposure is tied more closely to building infrastructure. But assuming these projects get planned, designed and built over the next 5 to 7 years, they will expand the electrical market by some $2 billion to $4 billion a year. And that's just from what's been already announced in mega projects. We naturally expect more large and small projects to come.

在幻燈片 8 上，我們帶您了解已宣布的 4000 億美元的大型項目及其對電氣行業的意義。我們估計這些項目的電力含量佔項目總價值的 3% 至 5%。這意味著 120 億至 200 億美元的增量電力收入。請記住，各種項目肯定有廣泛的電氣內容，我們的曝光與建築基礎設施的聯繫更緊密。但假設這些項目在未來 5 到 7 年內得到規劃、設計和建造，它們將使電氣市場每年擴大約 20 億到 40 億美元。這只是大型項目中已經宣布的內容。我們自然期待更多大大小小的項目的到來。

I'd say these projects are a good example of how mega trends are playing out in creating a very different growth outlook for the electrical industry and one we think will run for a decade or more.

我想說這些項目是一個很好的例子，說明大趨勢如何在為電氣行業創造一個截然不同的增長前景方面發揮作用，我們認為這一趨勢將持續十年或更長時間。

Another helpful proof point is represented on Slide 9, where you can see how our negotiation pipeline has grown. As you can see, our negotiation pipeline has doubled from what we've seen historically. In 2022, we saw nearly $5 billion of projects in our negotiation pipeline in Electrical Americas alone. And similar to mega projects, we're seeing broad strength in manufacturing and data center, industrial and utility market. This large step-up in negotiation is further supported our expectations -- further supports our expectations for strong markets and faster organic growth as we go forward.

另一個有用的證明點顯示在幻燈片 9 中，您可以在其中看到我們的談判渠道是如何發展的。如您所見，我們的談判渠道比以往翻了一番。 2022 年，僅在電氣美洲，我們的談判管道中就有近 50 億美元的項目。與大型項目類似，我們在製造和數據中心、工業和公用事業市場看到了廣泛的實力。談判的這一重大進展進一步支持了我們的預期——進一步支持了我們對強勁市場和更快有機增長的預期。

And just one additional proof point is noted on Page 10. Here, we show a few examples of how these projects are translating into specific orders. As we reported, our electrical orders have been at record levels for 2 years now. So what we're demonstrating here is how these mega projects are translating directly into large wins for our Electrical business. For example, we've won $180 million of orders to provide power management solutions for 2 new EV plants in North America. Specifically, we're providing power distribution equipment and Brightlayer industrial remote monitoring software.

第 10 頁僅註明了一個額外的證明點。在這裡，我們展示了這些項目如何轉化為特定訂單的幾個示例。正如我們報導的那樣，我們的電氣訂單已經連續 2 年保持在創紀錄水平。因此，我們在這裡展示的是這些大型項目如何直接轉化為我們電氣業務的巨大勝利。例如，我們贏得了 1.8 億美元的訂單，為北美的 2 家新 EV 工廠提供電源管理解決方案。具體來說，我們提供配電設備和 Brightlayer 工業遠程監控軟件。

Another example is a $100 million order for a new U.S. semiconductor plant, and we're already working on Phase 2 of this project, which could be even larger. So overall, we're seeing record project announcements, record negotiations, a record set of orders that has led to record backlog. And keep in mind, the revenue impact is mostly in front of us.

另一個例子是一個價值 1 億美元的新美國半導體工廠的訂單，我們已經在進行這個項目的第二階段，這個項目可能更大。所以總的來說，我們看到了創紀錄的項目公告、創紀錄的談判、創紀錄的訂單集導致了創紀錄的積壓。請記住，收入影響主要在我們面前。

Moving to Page 11. We're also benefiting from mega trends in Aerospace and Vehicle. We're at the beginning of an Aerospace growth cycle in both commercial and defense market. Specifically, Commercial OEM build rates are expected to grow in the mid-teens over the next several years. And our commercial aftermarket should also grow by double digits as global revenue passenger kilometers continue to recover to pre-pandemic levels and beyond.

轉到第 11 頁。我們還受益於航空航天和車輛領域的大趨勢。我們正處於商業和國防市場航空航天增長周期的開始。具體而言，商業 OEM 構建率預計在未來幾年內將增長到十幾歲左右。隨著全球收入客公里繼續恢復到大流行前甚至更高的水平，我們的商業售後市場也應該以兩位數的速度增長。

We've also noted the significant step-up in defense orders and expect to see a significant lift in defense revenues beginning in 2024. As a point of reference, our defense orders have more than doubled from 2019 levels. And in recent years, we've run increased content on both Commercial and Defense platforms.

我們還注意到國防訂單的顯著增加，預計從 2024 年開始國防收入將大幅增加。作為參考，我們的國防訂單比 2019 年增加了一倍多。近年來，我們在商業和國防平台上運行的內容越來越多。

In Vehicle, electrification continues to accelerate, and we now expect global EV penetration rates to exceed 50% of global auto sales by 2030, up from our prior estimate of 40%. While we're not providing any new revenue updates today, we once again are relooking our forecast for our eMobility segment.

在車輛方面，電氣化繼續加速，我們現在預計到 2030 年全球電動汽車普及率將超過全球汽車銷量的 50%，高於我們之前估計的 40%。雖然我們今天沒有提供任何新的收入更新，但我們再次重新審視我們對 eMobility 細分市場的預測。

And on Page 12, we highlighted a few key wins in our Aerospace and eMobility businesses beginning with a $500 million win for cryogenic coolers and controllers for the CityAirbus Urban Air Mobility program. The CityAirbus win is a good example of how digitalization, software and electrification are beginning to benefit our Aerospace business. And as Tom will report shortly, we're seeing more than 30% growth in our defense and commercial aftermarket orders. And in eMobility, we continue to realize significant wins.

在第 12 頁上，我們重點介紹了我們在航空航天和電動交通業務方面取得的一些重要勝利，首先是為 CityAirbus 城市空中交通項目的低溫冷卻器和控制器贏得了 5 億美元的勝利。 CityAirbus 的勝利是數字化、軟件和電氣化如何開始使我們的航空航天業務受益的一個很好的例子。正如湯姆將很快報告的那樣，我們的國防和商業售後市場訂單增長了 30% 以上。在 eMobility 方面，我們繼續取得重大勝利。

The most significant of which are coming from our power distribution product line within our eMobility business. You'll recall this is where we're able to leverage our broader electrical business and our unique breakthrough technology. Our latest set of wins comes from a leading European automotive OEM and will generate $100 million a year of mature year revenues.

其中最重要的是來自我們 eMobility 業務中的配電產品線。你會記得這是我們能夠利用我們更廣泛的電氣業務和我們獨特的突破性技術的地方。我們最新的一組勝利來自一家領先的歐洲汽車原始設備製造商，每年將產生 1 億美元的成熟年度收入。

So like Electrical, our industrial businesses are delivering significant wins tied to long-term mega trends that will support faster growth. When you combine the businesses, we're confident that our market should grow at more than 2x their historical rates. And as we've stated, we're in the early innings. These trends are expected to deliver outside growth for years to come.

因此，與 Electrical 一樣，我們的工業業務正在取得與支持更快增長的長期大趨勢相關的重大勝利。當您合併這些業務時，我們相信我們的市場應該以超過其歷史增長率 2 倍的速度增長。正如我們所說，我們處於早期階段。預計這些趨勢將在未來幾年帶來外部增長。

With that, I'll turn it over to Tom to walk us through Q1 financial results and updated guidance.

有了這個，我將把它交給湯姆，讓我們了解第一季度的財務結果和更新的指導。

Thanks, Craig.

謝謝，克雷格。

On Page 13, I'll start by providing a summary of our strong Q1 results. For the third consecutive quarter, we generated organic growth of 15%. Revenue was up 13%, with the organic growth reduced by 2 percentage points of unfavorable foreign exchange. Operating profit, a first quarter record, grew 19% and margins expanded 90 basis points to 19.7%, also a Q1 record. Adjusted EPS increased by 16% over the prior year to $1.88. All in, the strong organic growth and margins enabled us to report a first quarter record adjusted EPS.

在第 13 頁，我將首先提供我們強勁的第一季度業績摘要。我們連續第三個季度實現了 15% 的有機增長。收入增長 13%，有機增長因不利外匯減少 2 個百分點。第一季度營業利潤增長 19%，利潤率擴大 90 個基點至 19.7%，也創下第一季度記錄。調整後每股收益比上年增長 16% 至 1.88 美元。總而言之，強勁的有機增長和利潤率使我們能夠報告第一季度調整後的每股收益。

Our higher growth not only demonstrates the mega trends, but also the importance of prioritizing our customers by carrying higher levels of inventory when supply chains were challenged. Lastly, our free cash flow of $209 million was nearly $300 million above prior year and exceeded our expectations. You will recall from our Q4 call, we expected free cash flow to be relatively flat year-over-year.

我們更高的增長不僅表明了大趨勢，也表明了在供應鏈受到挑戰時通過提高庫存水平來優先考慮客戶的重要性。最後，我們的自由現金流為 2.09 億美元，比上年增加近 3 億美元，超出了我們的預期。您會從我們的第四季度電話會議中回想起，我們預計自由現金流量同比相對持平。

Moving on to the next chart. Our Electrical Americas business had another very strong quarter. We have set Q1 record for sales, operating profit and margin. Organic sales growth was 22%. Electrical Americas has generated double-digit organic growth for 5 consecutive quarters, including back-to-back quarters of at least 20% growth.

繼續下一個圖表。我們的 Electrical Americas 業務有另一個非常強勁的季度。我們創下了第一季度的銷售額、營業利潤和利潤率記錄。有機銷售額增長 22%。 Electrical Americas 已連續 5 個季度實現兩位數的有機增長，包括至少 20% 的連續季度增長。

On a 2-year stack, organic growth is up 32%. In the quarter, there was broad-based growth in all end markets, with especially robust growth in commercial and institutional, utility and data center market. Specifically, we posted 25% organic growth in our data center revenues in Q1. So we continue to see very strong growth in this important market.

在 2 年的堆棧中，有機增長增長了 32%。本季度，所有終端市場都有廣泛的增長，商業和機構、公用事業和數據中心市場的增長尤為強勁。具體來說，我們在第一季度的數據中心收入實現了 25% 的有機增長。因此，我們繼續看到這個重要市場的強勁增長。

Utility and Commercial and Institutional were up more than 30%. It's also worth noting that we posted strong revenue growth of 17% in our residential business. The 2-year stack is over 40% growth. We're seeing strength in multifamily homes, completion of single-family homes in process and increased electrical content per home, which are more than offsetting weakness in new single-family start.

公用事業、商業和機構上漲超過 30%。還值得注意的是，我們的住宅業務收入強勁增長了 17%。 2 年的堆棧增長超過 40%。我們看到多戶住宅的實力、正在完工的單戶住宅以及每戶家庭的電氣設備增加，這些都足以抵消新單戶住宅開工的疲軟。

Operating margin of 22.9%, was up 380 basis points versus prior year, benefiting from higher volumes. Incremental margins were very strong at more than 40%. We continue to manage price effectively to more than offset inflationary pressures.

營業利潤率為 22.9%，比上年增長 380 個基點，這得益於銷量的增加。增量利潤率非常強勁，超過 40%。我們繼續有效地管理價格，以抵消通脹壓力。

Orders and backlog show continued strength. On a rolling 12-month basis, orders were up 18%, which remains at a high level with particular strength in data center, distributed IT, utility and industrial market. On a quarter-over-quarter sequential basis, orders grew 19%. We're also continuing to build backlog. Backlog was up 51% versus prior year and up 9% sequentially. In addition to the robust trends in orders and backlog, our major project negotiations pipeline in Q1 was up more than 20% versus prior year and nearly 20% sequentially from especially strong growth in data center, water, wastewater and transportation market. Overall, Electrical Americas had a very strong quarter to start the year.

訂單和積壓顯示持續強勁。在連續 12 個月的基礎上，訂單增長了 18%，仍處於高位，數據中心、分佈式 IT、公用事業和工業市場尤為強勁。按季度環比計算，訂單增長了 19%。我們還在繼續建立積壓。積壓訂單較上年增長 51%，環比增長 9%。除了訂單和積壓訂單的強勁趨勢外，我們在第一季度的主要項目談判渠道比去年同期增長了 20% 以上，環比增長近 20%，這主要歸功於數據中心、水、廢水和運輸市場的強勁增長。總體而言，Electrical Americas 在年初的季度表現非常強勁。

On Page 15, you'll find the results of our Electrical Global segment, which posted all-time record sales of $1.5 billion. Organic growth was up 8%, which was partially offset by headwinds from foreign exchange and a divestiture. Organic growth was driven by strength in utility, data center and distributed IT market. Our data center revenues for Electrical Global increased 32% in the quarter, utility was up 25% and distributed IT up 20%. Operating margin of 18.3% was down compared to prior year, primarily from manufacturing inefficiencies and investment in growth, partially offset by higher sales volume and inflationary price recovery. Orders were up 4% on a rolling 12-month basis with strength in data center, commercial and institutional and utility market. Sequentially, orders grew 12%. Backlog increased 3% year-over-year and 6% sequentially.

在第 15 頁，您會看到我們的 Electrical Global 分部的業績，該分部的銷售額創下了 15 億美元的歷史新高。有機增長 8%，部分被外彙和資產剝離帶來的不利影響所抵消。有機增長是由公用事業、數據中心和分佈式 IT 市場的實力推動的。本季度，我們在 Electrical Global 的數據中心收入增長了 32%，公用事業增長了 25%，分佈式 IT 增長了 20%。營業利潤率為 18.3%，與上一年相比有所下降，這主要是由於製造效率低下和增長投資，部分被更高的銷量和通脹價格回升所抵消。數據中心、商業和機構以及公用事業市場的訂單在 12 個月的滾動基礎上增長了 4%。隨後，訂單增長了 12%。積壓訂單同比增長 3%，環比增長 6%。

I'm also pleased to highlight that last month, we closed the acquisition of a 49% stake in Jiangsu Ryan Electrical Company. This is a Chinese-based business with approximately $100 million of revenue which manufactures power distribution and subtransmission transformers and will accelerate Eaton's growth in renewable energy, data center, utility and industrial market. This is Eaton's fourth JV in China in the last 2 years, allowing us to expand our market presence, serving high-growth markets inside and outside of China.

我還很高興地強調，上個月，我們完成了對江蘇瑞安電氣公司 49% 股權的收購。這是一家總部位於中國的企業，收入約為 1 億美元，主要生產配電和次級輸電變壓器，並將加速伊頓在可再生能源、數據中心、公用事業和工業市場的增長。這是過去 2 年伊頓在中國的第四家合資企業，使我們能夠擴大市場影響力，為中國國內外的高增長市場提供服務。

Before moving to our Industrial businesses, I'd like to briefly recap the combined Electrical segment. For Q1, we posted organic growth of 16%, incremental margin of 34% and operating margin of 21%, which was 180 basis points of year-over-year margin improvement. Orders grew 13% on a rolling 12-month basis, with sequential growth in the quarter of nearly 20% compared roughly -- compared to roughly flat sequential order growth in the 6 years prior to the pandemic. Backlog grew 39% in the quarter and 8% sequentially.

在轉向我們的工業業務之前，我想簡要回顧一下合併後的電氣部門。第一季度，我們實現了 16% 的有機增長，增量利潤率為 34%，營業利潤率為 21%，利潤率同比提高 180 個基點。訂單連續 12 個月增長 13%，與大流行前 6 年大致持平的訂單環比增長相比，本季度環比增長近 20%。本季度積壓訂單增長 39%，環比增長 8%。

On a rolling 12-month basis, our book-to-bill for our electrical sector remains very strong at above 1.2. It was also above 1.2 for Q1. We remain confident in our positioning for continued growth with strong margins in our overall Electrical business.

在連續 12 個月的基礎上，我們電氣行業的訂單出貨比仍然非常強勁，高於 1.2。第一季度也高於 1.2。我們對我們在整體電氣業務中的持續增長和強勁利潤率的定位充滿信心。

The next page recaps our Aerospace segment. We posted Q1 record for sales and operating profit. Organic growth was 13%, with a 1 percentage point headwind from foreign exchange. Growth was primarily driven by strength in Commercial aftermarket, up more than 30% and commercial OEM up more than 25%. Operating margin was 22.5% which was 40 basis points over last year, driven by volume growth and inflationary price recovery. Order growth in backlog trends also remain encouraging. On a rolling 12-month basis, orders were up 21% organically with strength across all end markets, including continued outgrowth in defense OEM orders.

下一頁回顧了我們的航空航天部門。我們發布了第一季度的銷售和營業利潤記錄。有機增長率為 13%，外匯影響增長 1 個百分點。增長主要受商業售後市場增長超過 30% 和商業 OEM 增長超過 25% 的推動。在銷量增長和通脹價格回升的推動下，營業利潤率為 22.5%，比去年高 40 個基點。積壓趨勢中的訂單增長也仍然令人鼓舞。在連續 12 個月的基礎上，所有終端市場的訂單有機增長 21%，包括國防 OEM 訂單的持續增長。

Similar to the second half of the year, we continue to see -- a second half of last year, we continue to see strong growth in our defense orders in the quarter with OEM up 55% and aftermarket up more than 40%. On a rolling 12-month basis, our book-to-bill for our Aerospace segment remains very strong at more than 1.2 including more than 1.25 for Q1. Year-over-year backlog growth increased 27% in Q1, an acceleration from up 21% in Q4.

與今年下半年類似，我們繼續看到——去年下半年，我們繼續看到本季度我們的國防訂單強勁增長，OEM 增長 55%，售後市場增長超過 40%。在連續 12 個月的基礎上，我們航空航天部門的訂單出貨比仍然非常強勁，超過 1.2，其中第一季度超過 1.25。第一季度積壓訂單同比增長 27%，高於第四季度 21% 的增幅。

Moving on to our Vehicle segment on Page 17. In Q1, revenue was up 10%, with 11% organic growth and 1 percentage point of unfavorable FX. We saw particular strong growth in both the Americas and EMEA market. Operating margins came in at 14.5%, with unfavorability to prior year, primarily due to manufacturing inefficiencies, partially offset by higher sales volume and price cost. We continue to make progress towards securing more sustainable technology wins, which most recently includes multiple new programs for our e-Powertrain solution.

轉到第 17 頁的車輛部門。在第一季度，收入增長 10%，有機增長 11%，不利的外匯佔 1 個百分點。我們在美洲和 EMEA 市場看到了特別強勁的增長。營業利潤率為 14.5%，不及上年，這主要是由於製造效率低下，部分被較高的銷量和價格成本所抵消。我們繼續在確保更多可持續技術勝利方面取得進展，最近包括我們的電子動力總成解決方案的多個新計劃。

On Page 18, we show results for our eMobility business. We generated strong growth in the quarter. Revenue was up 17%, including 18% from organic growth. Margin was down 30 basis points versus prior year, driven by higher manufacturing start-up costs associated with new electric vehicle programs. We remain very encouraged by the growth prospects of the eMobility segment. We continue to leverage our capabilities across our entire portfolio, including core technology in both electrical and industrial businesses.

在第 18 頁，我們展示了我們的 eMobility 業務的結果。我們在本季度實現了強勁增長。收入增長了 17%，其中 18% 來自有機增長。利潤率較上年下降 30 個基點，原因是與新電動汽車項目相關的製造啟動成本較高。我們仍然對電動汽車領域的增長前景感到非常鼓舞。我們繼續利用我們在整個產品組合中的能力，包括電氣和工業業務的核心技術。

Since 2018, we have won $1.4 billion of mature year revenues in this business with many of these programs ramping up in 2023 and 2024. This strong momentum includes additional recent wins with Breaktor, including next-generation battery platforms with a large European OEM.

自 2018 年以來，我們在該業務中贏得了 14 億美元的成熟年度收入，其中許多項目將在 2023 年和 2024 年加速推進。這一強勁勢頭包括最近與 Breaktor 的額外合作，包括與一家大型歐洲 OEM 合作的下一代電池平台。

Next, on Page 19, we show historical backlog charts for the Electrical sector and Aerospace segments. We think it's important to illustrate how backlog has grown over time. Our record backlog was roughly $12 billion to end Q1. This is up nearly 3x the ending 2019 level. These metrics provide us with great confidence in the outlook for the full year and going forward.

接下來，在第 19 頁，我們展示了電氣部門和航空航天部門的歷史積壓圖表。我們認為重要的是要說明積壓是如何隨著時間的推移而增長的。截至第一季度末，我們創紀錄的積壓訂單約為 120 億美元。這是 2019 年底水平的近 3 倍。這些指標使我們對全年和未來的前景充滿信心。

On the next page, we show our fiscal year organic growth and operating margin guidance. We are raising our organic growth guidance for 2023. We continue to have a robust negotiations pipeline and build backlog with particular strength in Electrical Americas and Aerospace. We now expect organic growth in Electrical Americas of 11% to 13%, up 300 basis points from our prior 8% to 10% guide. We're also raising Electrical Global 200 basis points to 6% to 8% from 4% to 6%. And we're increasing Aerospace 200 basis points to 10% to 12% from 8% to 10%. In total, we're increasing our 2023 organic outlook by 200 basis points from an 8% midpoint to a 10% midpoint. Our strong end market growth forecast combined with building backlog provides tremendous visibility and confidence in this 2023 outlook.

在下一頁，我們展示了本財年的有機增長和營業利潤率指引。我們正在提高 2023 年的有機增長指導。我們繼續擁有強大的談判渠道，並在美洲電氣和航空航天領域建立特別強大的積壓。我們現在預計 Electrical Americas 的有機增長將達到 11% 至 13%，比我們之前 8% 至 10% 的指引高出 300 個基點。我們還將 Electrical Global 200 基點從 4% 提高到 6% 到 6%。我們將 Aerospace 200 基點從 8% 提高到 10% 到 10% 到 10% 到 12%。總的來說，我們將 2023 年的有機前景從 8% 的中點提高到 10% 的中點 200 個基點。我們強勁的終端市場增長預測與建築積壓相結合，為 2023 年的前景提供了巨大的可見性和信心。

For segment margins, we're raising our guidance range for Electrical Americas by 20 basis points to a revised range of 23.3% to 23.7%, which reflects the continued strong momentum that we have in this business.

對於部門利潤率，我們將 Electrical Americas 的指導範圍提高了 20 個基點，修訂後的範圍為 23.3% 至 23.7%，這反映了我們在該業務中的持續強勁勢頭。

Overall, we are reaffirming our total Eaton margin guidance range of 20.7% to 21.1%. As a reminder, this is a 70 basis point increase at the midpoint from our 2022 all-time record margin. For eMobility, we are adjusting both the organic growth and margin ranges. This is primarily due to delayed OEM launch plans and higher start-up costs related to large new program wins. In summary, we continue to be well positioned to deliver another strong year of financial performance.

總體而言，我們重申我們的伊頓總利潤率指導範圍為 20.7% 至 21.1%。提醒一下，這是我們 2022 年曆史記錄利潤率的中點增加 70 個基點。對於 eMobility，我們正在調整有機增長和利潤率範圍。這主要是由於延遲的 OEM 啟動計劃和與大型新項目相關的更高啟動成本。總而言之，我們繼續處於有利地位，可以實現又一個強勁的財務業績。

On Page 21, we have the balance of our guidance for 2023 and Q2. Following our strong Q1 performance and improved organic growth expectations for the year, we are raising our full year EPS range to $8.30 to $8.50. At the midpoint of $8.40, we have raised guidance by $0.16. This represents 11% growth in adjusted EPS in 2023. We're also raising our CapEx guidance from $630 million to approximately $700 million to fund additional investments for growth including in our utility business, where we continue to experience strong increases.

在第 21 頁，我們平衡了 2023 年和第二季度的指導。繼我們強勁的第一季度業績和今年有機增長預期的改善後，我們將全年每股收益範圍上調至 8.30 美元至 8.50 美元。在 8.40 美元的中點，我們將指引上調了 0.16 美元。這意味著 2023 年調整後每股收益增長 11%。我們還將我們的資本支出指引從 6.3 億美元提高到約 7 億美元，以資助額外投資以促進增長，包括我們繼續強勁增長的公用事業業務。

Free cash flow guidance remains unchanged. For Q2, we are guiding organic growth of 10% to 12%. Segment margins of between 20.5% and 20.9%, representing 60 basis points growth at the midpoint versus prior year, and adjusted EPS in the range of $2.04 to $2.14, a 12% increase versus prior year at the midpoint.

自由現金流指引保持不變。對於第二季度，我們指導有機增長 10% 至 12%。部門利潤率在 20.5% 至 20.9% 之間，與上一年的中點相比增長 60 個基點，調整後的每股收益在 2.04 美元至 2.14 美元的範圍內，與上一年的中點相比增長 12%。

Now I'll hand it back to Craig to wrap up the presentation.

現在我將把它交還給 Craig 以結束演示。

Thanks, Tom. Now turning to Page 22.

謝謝，湯姆。現在翻到第 22 頁。

As we continue to track our end markets, we want to provide a slightly revised look and our assumptions for the year. Once again, we do expect a mild recession in 2023, and we've built that into our base case assumptions. But with healthy demand and strong secular growth trends, we continue to expect growth in almost all of our end markets, and we raised our growth assumption for the utility market from solid growth to strong double-digit growth. Here, energy transition and electrification continue to gain momentum. And we've increased our residential market from declining to flat. So while we recognize the slowdown in U.S. single-family housing market, the combination of resilient renovation market, pricing momentum and strong backlog now supports an upward revision. And as Tom noted, we posted a 17% organic growth in Residential and Electrical Americas in Q1.

隨著我們繼續追踪我們的終端市場，我們希望提供略微修改的外觀和我們對今年的假設。再一次，我們確實預計 2023 年會出現溫和衰退，並且我們已將其納入我們的基本情景假設。但憑藉健康的需求和強勁的長期增長趨勢，我們繼續預計幾乎所有終端市場都會增長，我們將公用事業市場的增長假設從穩健增長上調至強勁的兩位數增長。在這裡，能源轉型和電氣化繼續獲得動力。我們已經將住宅市場從下降變為持平。因此，雖然我們認識到美國單戶住宅市場放緩，但彈性翻新市場、定價勢頭和強勁積壓的結合現在支持向上修正。正如 Tom 指出的那樣，我們在第一季度發布了美洲住宅和電氣業務 17% 的有機增長。

The balance of the forecast remains unchanged, but I want to emphasize once again that despite market concerns about nonresidential construction market, we have a robust negotiation pipeline, a growing backlog and strong orders. Data centers, utility, industrial, commercial institutions continued to perform extremely well. And I know that most of you have drawn reference to the declining PMI data, but I'd point out that our market and revenue growth are much more aligned with capital spending where we continue to see strong momentum. As a result, we do not expect any of our end markets to decline in 2023, and most are expected to see healthy levels of growth.

預測的平衡保持不變，但我想再次強調，儘管市場對非住宅建築市場感到擔憂，但我們有強大的談判渠道、不斷增加的積壓訂單和強勁的訂單。數據中心、公用事業、工業、商業機構繼續表現出色。我知道你們中的大多數人都提到了下降的 PMI 數據，但我要指出的是，我們的市場和收入增長與我們繼續看到強勁勢頭的資本支出更加一致。因此，我們預計我們的任何終端市場都不會在 2023 年出現下滑，而且大多數終端市場有望實現健康增長。

Let me close on Page 23 with just a few summary comments. Once again, we delivered a strong quarter and set a handful of Q1 record. We delivered 15% organic growth and have record backlog. While electric orders are experiencing some expected normalization, our supply chains continue to improve. The secular growth trends and strong execution on our backlog support another strong year of growth. Having exceeded our Q1 forecast and continued secular tailwinds, we're raising our guidance for the year. Despite macro uncertainty in markets -- despite macro uncertainties, our markets are performing well, and we're improving our internal execution.

讓我在第 23 頁結束時做一些總結性的評論。我們再次交付了一個強勁的季度，並創下了第一季度的多項記錄。我們實現了 15% 的有機增長，並擁有創紀錄的積壓訂單。雖然電力訂單正在經歷一些預期的正常化，但我們的供應鏈仍在繼續改善。長期增長趨勢和我們積壓訂單的強勁執行支持了又一個強勁的增長年。在超過我們第一季度的預測和持續的長期順風之後，我們提高了今年的指導。儘管市場存在宏觀不確定性——儘管存在宏觀不確定性，但我們的市場表現良好，我們正在改善內部執行力。

And as I highlighted, we're seeing more evidence that mega trends are accelerating. And we now think our end markets will grow at more than 2x historical growth rate. These market forces are just beginning to show up in revenue and will position the company for strong growth for the decade to come.

正如我強調的那樣，我們看到更多證據表明大趨勢正在加速。我們現在認為我們的終端市場將以超過 2 倍的歷史增長率增長。這些市場力量才剛剛開始體現在收入中，並將為公司在未來十年的強勁增長奠定基礎。

I'll stop here and open it up for any questions you may have.

我會在這裡停下來，打開它來回答你可能有的任何問題。

Thanks, Craig. For the Q&A today, please limit your opportunity to just one question and a follow-up. Thanks, everyone, for your cooperation.

謝謝，克雷格。對於今天的問答環節，請將您的機會限制在一個問題和一個後續問題上。謝謝大家的合作。

With that, I will turn it over to the operator to give you guys the instruction.

有了這個，我會把它交給接線員給你們指導。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from the line of Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 Joe Ritchie。

Great start to the year. Let me just kind of start on the Electrical Americas' margins. Clearly, a standout this quarter. I think your highest quarter -- highest first quarter ever. As you think about kind of like the incremental margins going forward, it looks like you posted about a 40% incremental in the first quarter. How should we be thinking about the rest of the year? Are there any items that potentially reverse as you progress? Or do you expect incrementals to be as strong throughout the year?

開年大吉。讓我從美國電氣公司的邊緣開始。顯然，本季度表現突出。我認為你最高的季度——有史以來最高的第一季度。當你考慮未來的增量利潤率時，看起來你在第一季度發布了大約 40% 的增量。我們應該如何考慮今年剩下的時間？隨著您的進步，是否有任何項目可能會逆轉？還是您預計全年的增量會如此強勁？

We appreciate the recognition, Joe. And our team in the Americas is just doing an outstanding job of executing. And as we talked about last year, we had a fairly sizable inefficiencies in our manufacturing operations as we were dealing with a number of supply chain related disruptions. And so those got clearly better into the first quarter. And we would expect that as we go forward, while the incrementals for the company, we're still calling the company in and around 30%. We do expect our Americas business to perform better than that as we continue to see improvements in supply chain.

喬，我們感謝您的認可。我們在美洲的團隊在執行方面做得非常出色。正如我們去年談到的那樣，在我們處理許多與供應鏈相關的中斷時，我們的製造業務效率相當低下。所以這些在第一季度明顯好轉。我們預計，隨著我們的前進，雖然公司的增量，但我們仍將公司稱為 30% 左右。隨著我們繼續看到供應鏈的改善，我們確實希望我們的美洲業務表現得更好。

Yes. And the only thing I would throw on top of that, Joe, is, to your specific question, there were no unusual items in the first quarter driving the Americas margin.

是的。喬，我唯一要說的是，對於你的具體問題，第一季度沒有任何不尋常的項目推動美洲利潤率。

Got it. That's super helpful. And look, Craig, you outlined a lot of reasons to be excited about the growth dynamics for the companies going forward. I saw you took up the utilities expectation for the year. I'm curious, are you starting to see some of the money loosen from the Jobs Act, particularly on the grid side? Or what's kind of driving your increased expectations on utilities growth for the year?

知道了。這非常有幫助。看，克雷格，你概述了很多對公司未來的增長動力感到興奮的理由。我看到你接受了今年的公用事業預期。我很好奇，您是否開始看到《就業法》放鬆了一些資金，特別是在電網方面？或者是什麼推動了您對今年公用事業增長的預期增加？

Yes. I mean this is something that had been long anticipated, quite frankly, Joe, by us is as you think about all of these mega trends of whether it's electrification of the economy or energy transition, we knew at some point that the utility market would have to start to make the kinds of investments that are going to be needed to support the electrification of the economy.

是的。我的意思是，這是我們早就預料到的事情，坦率地說，喬，當你想到所有這些大趨勢時，無論是經濟電氣化還是能源轉型，我們都知道公用事業市場在某個時候會有開始進行支持經濟電氣化所需的各種投資。

As I mentioned, I think, on the last earnings call, one of the longest lead time pieces of equipment that you could order today in the electrical industry is a transformer. And in many cases, lead times there are 12 months or beyond. And so we continue to see the utilities making investments in their distribution infrastructure to really support this energy transition that's taking place, the electrification of the economy. And so yes, we think the utility market is going to be a really strong growth market for some years to come as they deal with needed investments.

正如我提到的，我認為，在上次財報電話會議上，您今天可以在電氣行業訂購的交貨時間最長的設備之一是變壓器。在許多情況下，交貨時間為 12 個月或更長時間。因此，我們繼續看到公用事業公司對其配電基礎設施進行投資，以真正支持正在發生的能源轉型，即經濟電氣化。所以是的，我們認為公用事業市場在未來幾年內將成為一個非常強勁的增長市場，因為它們需要處理所需的投資。

And so no question, as we began the year, we were a little bit conservative in terms of what the expectation is, but it's coming through, as you heard from Tom and since some of the orders growth, orders growth are quite significant now, and we think that's going to go on once again for some years to come.

所以毫無疑問，今年年初，我們對預期有點保守，但它正在實現，正如你從湯姆那裡聽到的那樣，由於一些訂單增長，現在訂單增長非常顯著，我們認為這種情況將在未來幾年內再次發生。

The next question is from Josh Pokrzywinski from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Josh Pokrzywinski。

So good to see that supply chain looks like it's starting to unlock there in Electrical. I guess, even though it's not as bad today, maybe labor with the -- either in your plans or maybe on the installer side or somewhere else in some of these bigger projects might still be a limiting factor. Craig, I guess if you just sort of take a step back notwithstanding the current backlog, demand is really good, all those sorts of things. Is there sort of a cap on how fast the industry can grow thinking about kind of the totality of the supply chain, including that labor pool at the contractor level?

很高興看到供應鏈看起來開始在 Electrical 中解鎖。我想，即使今天沒有那麼糟糕，也許在您的計劃中或在安裝程序方面或這些更大項目中的其他地方可能仍然是一個限制因素。克雷格，我想如果你只是退後一步，儘管目前積壓，需求真的很好，所有這些事情。考慮到供應鏈的整體性，包括承包商層面的勞動力池，該行業的增長速度是否有某種上限？

No, I appreciate the question, Josh. And that's certainly one of the things that we're spending a lot of time trying to sort through right now. I mean clearly, as I mentioned, supply chain on the material side from our suppliers has improved. We're not out of the woods by any means. Especially when you think about electronic and semiconductor-related components, they still are constrained constraining our growth.

不，我很欣賞這個問題，喬什。這肯定是我們現在花費大量時間試圖解決的事情之一。正如我所提到的，我的意思很明確，我們供應商在材料方面的供應鏈已經得到改善。無論如何我們都沒有走出困境。特別是當你想到電子和半導體相關組件時，它們仍然制約著我們的增長。

But to your point, labor is also a fairly significant constraint today. And so one of the reasons why I think you've seen this big gap between orders and revenue is because, once again, our extended supply chain and labor availability have been constraints on the industry. I don't really have an answer to your direct question in terms of -- from an industry perspective, what's the limiter because as you know, in these very complicated supply chains, it only takes one supplier, one player in the market to become the constraining factor. So it's a great question and one that we're trying to spend some time thinking through, but not one today that we have a really clear answer to today in terms of what is the real upper boundary of the industry's ability to deliver given labor, given our extended supply chains and some of these material constraints.

但就您的觀點而言，勞動力在今天也是一個相當重要的製約因素。因此，我認為您看到訂單和收入之間存在如此巨大差距的原因之一是，我們擴展的供應鍊和勞動力供應再次限制了該行業。對於你的直接問題，我真的沒有答案——從行業的角度來看，限制因素是什麼，因為正如你所知，在這些非常複雜的供應鏈中，只需要一個供應商，一個市場參與者就可以成為制約因素。所以這是一個很好的問題，我們正試圖花一些時間思考，但今天我們沒有一個真正明確的答案，即該行業提供給定勞動力的能力的真正上限是多少，考慮到我們擴展的供應鍊和其中一些物質限制。

I can tell you that today, things are getting better across the board. And we're feeling much better about the growth outlook for our company and for the industry and just tons of positives that we talked about in our opening commentary, where we're seeing just significant broad-based strength and it's showing up in our backlog, it's showing up on our order books. And we would hope that we continue to post very strong revenue growth tied to these secular trends.

我可以告訴你，今天，情況正在全面好轉。我們對公司和行業的增長前景以及我們在開場評論中談到的大量積極因素感覺好多了，我們看到了廣泛的顯著實力，並且它出現在我們的積壓工作中，它出現在我們的訂單簿上。我們希望我們繼續發布與這些長期趨勢相關的非常強勁的收入增長。

Got it. That's helpful. And I understand it's not an easy question to answer just yet.

知道了。這很有幫助。我知道這不是一個容易回答的問題。

Maybe shifting over to the pipeline for my follow-up. Anything you can share in terms of the book out rate and maybe any churn that you see in that pipeline with things like financing, supply chain, all these stimulus projects, some of which I would imagine are kind of mutually exclusive. Is there -- has there been any underlying volatility in that? And how should we think about the lead time between when something enters the pipeline and then maybe transmits into backlog?

也許轉移到我的跟進管道。任何你可以分享的關於賬面售出率的信息，以及你在融資、供應鏈、所有這些刺激項目等管道中看到的任何流失，我認為其中一些是相互排斥的。有沒有 - 這其中有任何潛在的波動嗎？我們應該如何考慮從某些東西進入管道然後可能傳輸到積壓之間的準備時間？

Yes. No, I appreciate the question. And it's -- I mean there's a lot in the question that you asked very specific in terms of whether or not we're seeing a lot of churn. I'd say that overall economic activity whether it's negotiations or orders or revenue, everything is kind of doing significantly better than it has historically and certainly better than even, quite frankly, we anticipated when we put our plan together for the year.

是的。不，我很欣賞這個問題。而且它 - 我的意思是你在我們是否看到很多客戶流失方面非常具體地提出了很多問題。我要說的是，整體經濟活動，無論是談判、訂單還是收入，一切都比歷史上的表現要好得多，而且肯定比我們在製定今年的計劃時所預期的要好。

So in general, things are positive. And we continue to -- with more negotiations, with more orders than we anticipated, obviously translating into more revenue. So I'd say that stimulus specifically, we talked about that a little bit in some of the opening commentary. We are starting to see stimulus have an impact. We are in the very early innings. If you think about that $600 billion of projects, mega projects that we talked about, we think some 25% of that has already broken ground and started many of that, whether it's semiconductors or EV factories and battery factors are obviously being busters by some of the early Infrastructure Spending Act.

所以總的來說，事情是積極的。我們繼續 - 通過更多的談判，獲得比我們預期更多的訂單，顯然轉化為更多的收入。所以我會特別說刺激，我們在一些開場評論中談到了一點。我們開始看到刺激措施產生影響。我們處於非常早的局。如果你想想我們談到的 6000 億美元的項目，大型項目，我們認為其中大約 25% 已經破土動工並開始了其中的許多項目，無論是半導體還是 EV 工廠和電池因素顯然是一些破壞者早期的基礎設施支出法案。

The Inflation Reduction Act, we really have not seen any impact from that yet. We're certainly seeing some impact from the Semiconductor Act. So yes, a little bit of a mixed bag there, but I'd say most of the impact there continues to be out in front of us and lead times today on these projects, I would say, we have better visibility today. As these projects are bigger, they tend to run them over a multiyear period. And so we're feeling great about our visibility into the future because of these very large projects that will be delivered over multiple years. But I'd say...

通貨膨脹減少法案，我們真的還沒有看到任何影響。我們當然看到了《半導體法》的一些影響。所以是的，那裡有點混雜，但我想說的是，這些項目的大部分影響仍然擺在我們面前，而且今天這些項目的交付時間，我想說，我們今天有更好的知名度。由於這些項目更大，它們往往會運行多年。因此，由於這些非常大的項目將在多年內交付，我們對未來的可見性感到非常滿意。但我會說...

Yes. The only part that I would amplify on that is going back to our speaker remarks, our negotiation pipeline in the U.S. quarter-over-quarter is up almost 25%, year-over-year up almost 25%. And some of the big segments are up well over 30% growth. So we're seeing very robust pipeline here.

是的。我唯一要強調的部分是回到我們的演講者言論，我們在美國的談判渠道環比增長近 25%，同比增長近 25%。一些大細分市場的增長率遠超過 30%。所以我們在這裡看到了非常強大的管道。

The next question is from Scott Davis from Melius Research.

下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

Craig and Tom. Look, how I want to just fixate on these big projects because this is so new, at least since I've been covering this space. Maybe a couple of different angles to go out here. One is just the competitive dynamic. Does it change when you get to this size? Meaning there's just a lot less people that can really at least be trusted suppliers for the customer when you're talking about orders and $10-plus million up to $100 million kind of total bid stuff?

克雷格和湯姆。看，我多麼想專注於這些大項目，因為這太新了，至少自從我一直在報導這個領域以來。也許這裡有幾個不同的角度。一是競爭動態。當你達到這個尺寸時它會改變嗎？這意味著當你談論訂單和 10 多萬美元到 1 億美元的總投標時，真正至少可以成為客戶值得信賴的供應商的人要少得多？

Yes. I mean, first of all, we will acknowledge what you just said, Scott. These -- we've always had mega projects, but historically speaking, they've been relatively few and far between. But I think it's really -- if you go back to this broader theme that we talked about around reindustrialization of manufacturing in the U.S. for sure, to a certain extent also in Europe, this is resulting in a really, let's say, a big surge of investing in the manufacturing sector in the U.S.

是的。我的意思是，首先，我們會承認你剛才所說的，斯科特。這些——我們一直都有大型項目，但從歷史上看，它們相對較少而且相距甚遠。但我認為這真的 - 如果你回到我們談到的這個更廣泛的主題，我們圍繞美國製造業的再工業化肯定，在一定程度上也在歐洲，這導致了一個真正的，比方說，一個大的激增投資美國製造業

And to the point that you raised, the bigger the project, the more complex the project, the fewer companies who are able to essentially provide the services that our customers need. And so we think the competitive dynamic in this environment certainly favors companies like Eaton because of our large capable organization. And quite frankly, in general, when you think about the more complex projects in general, they're also more electric intensive. If you think about a typical office building versus a typical semiconductor plant or an EV factory, the electrical intensity or a data center, the electrical intensity of these applications is much greater than a typical strip mall or office building, which also helps support the underlying growth of the industry and companies like Eaton.

就您提出的觀點而言，項目越大，項目越複雜，能夠從根本上提供客戶所需服務的公司就越少。因此，我們認為這種環境中的競爭動態肯定有利於像伊頓這樣的公司，因為我們擁有強大的組織能力。坦率地說，一般來說，當你考慮一般更複雜的項目時，它們也更耗電。如果您考慮典型的辦公樓與典型的半導體工廠或 EV 工廠、電力強度或數據中心，這些應用的電力強度遠大於典型的商業街或辦公樓，這也有助於支持底層行業和像伊頓這樣的公司的增長。

So we think it's certainly -- it's an important trend that's going to drive growth for the industry, but should also allow our companies to grow at a faster rate.

所以我們認為這肯定是 - 這是一個重要的趨勢，將推動該行業的增長，但也應該讓我們的公司以更快的速度增長。

And I think it really gives another lens in terms of what these big projects focused not so much on the PMIs, which we've all read historically. And to Craig's point, this reindustrialization, which is driven by these higher levels of CapEx, which we just don't see slowing down.

我認為它確實提供了另一個視角，讓我們了解這些大型項目並沒有過多關注 PMI，我們都曾在歷史上讀過這些。在克雷格看來，這種再工業化是由這些更高水平的資本支出驅動的，我們只是看不到放緩。

Yes. Helpful. And then just to back up a little bit, when you talk about selling less traditional products and let's just say, like software/remote monitoring, et cetera. Is that a separate sales process into facilities like this? Is it the same? I mean I'm kind of picturing a EPC firm putting out a bid, but this is a little bit of a different animal. So how is the sales process really changing and evolve with this type of unique product?

是的。有幫助。然後稍微備份一下，當你談論銷售不那麼傳統的產品時，我們就說，比如軟件/遠程監控等等。像這樣的設施是單獨的銷售流程嗎？是一樣的嗎？我的意思是，我有點想像一家 EPC 公司出價，但這有點不同。那麼銷售流程是如何隨著這種獨特的產品而真正改變和發展的呢？

Yes, we've spent some time with you over the years talking about the way we think about the sale of software to state of data and insights to that. For us, we really do think it's linked to the equipment. And so for us, for the most part, we're selling products that are digitally enabled. They're digitally native. These products all have the ability to stream data. From that data, we create algorithms and that allow us to provide insights, from the data coming off of our products, and we can either monetize that either in the form of Data as a Service or software.

是的，多年來我們花了一些時間與您討論我們如何考慮軟件銷售到數據狀態和對此的見解。對我們來說，我們確實認為它與設備有關。所以對我們來說，在大多數情況下，我們銷售的是數字化產品。他們是數字原生的。這些產品都具有流數據的能力。從這些數據中，我們創建算法，使我們能夠從我們產品的數據中提供見解，我們可以以數據即服務或軟件的形式將其貨幣化。

So for us, and it's not the same for every company in this space, we do link the sale of hardware, the places where we have deep domain knowledge and expertise to the sale of data and software and these services that we bundle together. So for us in the way we go to market, we do go together through the same channel through the same decision point. But that's not the same for every company in the space.

所以對我們來說，這個領域的每家公司都不一樣，我們確實將硬件銷售、我們擁有深厚領域知識和專業知識的地方與數據和軟件銷售以及我們捆綁在一起的這些服務聯繫起來。因此，對於我們進入市場的方式，我們確實通過相同的決策點通過相同的渠道一起進行。但這對於該領域的每家公司來說都不一樣。

The next question is from Nicole DeBlase from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase。

Just maybe starting with the second quarter outlook for organic growth, embedding a bit of a deceleration from the 15% in the first quarter. Just can you talk a little bit about what's driving that deceleration from a segment perspective?

也許只是從第二季度的有機增長前景開始，比第一季度的 15% 略有放緩。你能從細分市場的角度談談是什麼推動了這種減速嗎？

Yes. I'd say that there's always a bit of uncertainty, Nicole, as you can imagine, when you look forward in terms of where you think the market is going to land. But one of the things that I'd say is clearly, if you look at the balance between price and volume as you move forward for the balance of the year, you get relatively smaller contributions from year-over-year price increase, and you get, obviously, a pretty significant contribution from volume. And so you clearly have that dynamic that's taken place in the business throughout the year and -- inclusive of the second quarter. So we'll see. I mean, at this point, we're early days into Q2. We're off to a good start here. And so if we're able to convert and we continue to have some of the supply chain issues resolved, certainly, we have a range of possibilities for the quarter. It could be better.

是的。我想說的是，尼科爾，正如你想像的那樣，當你展望未來市場將走向何方時，總會有一些不確定性。但是我要說的一件事很清楚，如果你在今年餘下的時間裡觀察價格和數量之間的平衡，你會從同比價格上漲中得到相對較小的貢獻，而且你顯然，從數量上得到了相當大的貢獻。因此，您顯然擁有全年業務中發生的動態 - 包括第二季度。所以我們拭目以待。我的意思是，在這一點上，我們還處於第二季度的初期。我們在這裡有了一個良好的開端。因此，如果我們能夠轉換並且我們繼續解決一些供應鏈問題，當然，我們在本季度有一系列的可能性。它可以更好。

But at this point, I'd say we're taking a prudent view based upon the fact that we're not out of the woods completely from a supply chain standpoint. And once again, I mentioned less price on a relative year-over-year basis than we certainly had in Q1.

但在這一點上，我想說我們基於這樣一個事實，即從供應鏈的角度來看，我們並沒有完全走出困境，因此我們持謹慎態度。再一次，我提到的相對同比價格低於我們在第一季度的價格。

Got it. That makes sense. And then second question, just update on what you're seeing with respect to channel inventory in Electrical? Still pretty low relative to history or any movement there in the past quarter?

知道了。這就說得通了。然後是第二個問題，請更新您在 Electrical 中看到的有關渠道庫存的信息？相對於歷史或過去一個季度的任何變動仍然很低？

Yes. We think today, channel inventories are actually in relatively good shape, obviously, with some spots where they would like more and I think when you look at channel inventory, I think probably the most important message that I can leave with the group is that you really got to look at those inventories in the context of the size of the backlog, in the context of the orders. If you're looking backwards, you're going to draw one conclusion with respect to inventories. If you're looking forward, you're going to draw a very different conclusion. And it's one of the things that we tried to express for our own company in our Q1 earnings call, where Tom laid out some of the ratios between inventory and backlog, inventory and orders to say that. They're actually below where they've been historically based upon a forward view of our industry and our markets.

是的。我們認為，今天，渠道庫存實際上處於相對良好的狀態，顯然，有些地方他們想要更多，我認為當你查看渠道庫存時，我想我可以給小組留下的最重要的信息可能是你真的必須在訂單的背景下，在積壓訂單的規模的背景下查看這些庫存。如果你向後看，你會得出一個關於庫存的結論。如果你向前看，你會得出一個截然不同的結論。這是我們在第一季度財報電話會議上試圖為我們自己的公司表達的事情之一，湯姆在電話會議上列出了庫存和積壓、庫存和訂單之間的一些比率來說明這一點。它們實際上低於歷史上基於我們行業和市場的前瞻性觀點。

And so today, I'd just say inventories in general are, generally speaking, in good shape. Our distributors today, where I'm having phone calls and discussions with distributors, it's -- 90% of the time, it's about I need more. Can you help me solve a particular issue I have today with a customer because I don't have enough inventory. But in general, I'd say they're in fairly good shape. We did see a little bit of an issue in the fourth quarter in Europe, where there was a little bit of destocking in Europe in the fourth quarter. That -- since that time, turned around. And as Europe has performed better than even we anticipated, so on balance, inventories are in good shape.

所以今天，我只想說庫存總體上處於良好狀態。今天，我們的分銷商，我正在與分銷商通電話和討論，90% 的時間，這是關於我需要更多。你能幫我解決我今天遇到的一個客戶問題嗎，因為我沒有足夠的庫存。但總的來說，我會說他們的狀態相當不錯。我們確實在歐洲第四季度看到了一些問題，第四季度歐洲出現了一些去庫存。那——從那時起，轉過身來。由於歐洲的表現好於我們的預期，因此總的來說，庫存狀況良好。

And the next question is from the line of Steve Volkmann from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Steve Volkmann。

Craig, sort of a big picture question based on sort of what you were just saying. Do you think these backlog levels are the new Eaton and we should think about Eaton operating with these types of backlog numbers going forward? Or do you think as the world sort of normalizes from supply chain or whatever that backlog will come back down again?

克雷格，這是一個基於你剛才所說內容的大問題。你認為這些積壓水平是新的伊頓嗎？我們應該考慮伊頓在未來處理這些類型的積壓數量嗎？還是您認為隨著供應鍊或其他任何積壓訂單的供應鏈恢復正常，世界會再次下降？

It's a great question, and it's not one, once again, but I could tell you that I have clarified well thought through answer to specifically. We certainly, as we think about for 2023, we don't anticipate reducing backlogs. We think we'll carry the same level of backlog throughout much of 2023. A lot of that will have to do with obviously lead times and whether or not we can actually get out in front of some of these ramps that are taking place in the industries and the markets that we serve.

這是一個很好的問題，它不是一個，再一次，但我可以告訴你，我已經通過具體的回答澄清了深思熟慮。當然，正如我們對 2023 年的考慮，我們預計不會減少積壓。我們認為我們將在 2023 年的大部分時間裡進行相同水平的積壓。其中很多顯然與交貨時間有關，以及我們是否真的可以在這些正在發生的斜坡之前走出去我們服務的行業和市場。

And can we get capacity online quick enough to reduce lead times so that we can go back to perhaps where we've been historically in terms of stated lead times to our customers. And so we're not there today. And I do think a lot of it will be a function of how the markets unfold not just in terms of demand level because demand level, I think we know is going to be strong, but how quickly can we and others put capacity in to support this higher level of growth.

我們能否足夠快地獲得在線容量以減少交貨時間，以便我們可以回到我們向客戶規定的交貨時間方面的歷史水平。所以我們今天不在那裡。我確實認為這在很大程度上取決於市場如何展開，而不僅僅是需求水平，因為我認為我們知道需求水平會很強勁，但我們和其他人能多快投入產能來支持這種更高水平的增長。

Steve, where I would chime in on that, I think it's connected. Your question was backlog, but I think the new Eaton is definitely a higher growth Eaton and as Craig said in his prepared remarks, we see the markets doubling over where they have been historically. And that's a big thing when you say doubling and that doesn't include our outgrowth that we think we can put on top of that.

史蒂夫，我想插話一下，我認為這是有聯繫的。你的問題是積壓的，但我認為新的伊頓絕對是一個更高增長的伊頓，正如克雷格在他準備好的發言中所說的那樣，我們看到市場在歷史上翻了一番。當你說翻倍時，這是一件大事，這還不包括我們認為我們可以放在首位的結果。

And just some perspective, if you look also at order growth that we've got going back to the first quarter of '19, there's such strong numbers. Electrical Americas growing about 50% in terms of their quarterly orders. Electrical Global up over 25% and aero up over 40%. So just a volume of quarterly orders that we're seeing coming in and the continued building of the backlog, I think the new Eaton is a much higher growth Eaton.

從某種角度來看，如果你也看看我們可以追溯到 19 年第一季度的訂單增長，就會有如此強勁的數字。 Electrical Americas 的季度訂單增長了約 50%。 Electrical Global 上漲超過 25%，aero 上漲超過 40%。因此，只有我們看到的大量季度訂單和積壓訂單的持續增加，我認為新的伊頓是一個更高的增長伊頓。

Great. And then switching gears to Aerospace. We haven't talked about that one too much. But just kind of reading from the commentary on this call and others that I've heard you guys talk about it. It feels like '24 may be like a real stair step for your Aerospace business. I think you mentioned, Craig, that you have a bunch of military business that sort of ramps up. I'm just curious if we should be thinking that there's kind of a bigger increase in revenue and margin in '24 than might normally kind of be the year-to-year case?

偉大的。然後切換到航空航天。我們沒有過多地談論那個。但只是從關於這次電話會議的評論和我聽到你們談論的其他人的評論中讀到的。感覺'24 可能就像是您的航空航天業務的真正階梯。我想你提到過，克雷格，你有一堆軍事業務正在增加。我只是很好奇我們是否應該認為 24 年的收入和利潤率比通常情況下的年復一年情況有更大的增長？

I think it's certainly early for us to be putting out guidance for 2024. We'll have an opportunity to do that obviously later in the year. But I -- but your thesis is not off the mark. We do believe that certainly on the commercial side, that industry continues to ramp. Both Airbus and Boeing have already put out numbers in terms of increases in line rates for (inaudible) is improving.

我認為我們現在發布 2024 年的指導意見肯定為時過早。顯然，我們將有機會在今年晚些時候這樣做。但我——但你的論文並沒有偏離主題。我們確實相信，在商業方面，該行業肯定會繼續發展。空中客車公司和波音公司都已經公佈了線路費率增加方面的數字，因為（聽不清）正在改善。

Consumers are getting on planes. Revenue passenger miles and kilometers continue to grow up, I think, some 60%, I think, in Q1, still not back to 2019 levels. So there's a long way to go just to get back to 2019 on revenue passenger miles, which, as you know, drives the aftermarket for us.

消費者正在上飛機。收入客運里程和公里繼續增長，我認為，大約 60%，我認為，在第一季度，仍然沒有回到 2019 年的水平。因此，要回到 2019 年的收入客運里程還有很長的路要走，正如你所知，這推動了我們的售後市場。

And then on the military side, huge growth in orders this year that will begin to be delivered most of them into 2024. So I think the setup for our Aerospace business is certainly quite favorable right now, and we'll certainly be in a position later in the year to give you an indication of how good we think it's going to be.

然後在軍事方面，今年訂單的大幅增長將在 2024 年開始交付其中大部分。所以我認為我們航空航天業務的設置現在肯定非常有利，我們肯定會處於有利地位在今年晚些時候向您表明我們認為它會有多好。

And the next question is from Nigel Coe from Wolfe.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe 的 Nigel Coe。

I do want to come back to this -- these mega projects. But before we get into that quickly, just global margins, you went through the investments. Maybe just peel back going in on Global, what we're seeing in some of the major markets and what gets better from a margin perspective to get to that 19.7% full year?

我確實想回到這個——這些大型項目。但在我們快速進入之前，只是全球利潤率，你經歷了投資。也許只是回過頭來看看全球，我們在一些主要市場上看到了什麼，從利潤率的角度來看，有什麼可以更好地達到全年 19.7% 的水平？

Yes, I'd say the big thing that gets better to get to the higher margins is, one, you're getting to higher volumes, and you're obviously delivering an incremental, but I'd say the single biggest one is, as we talked about last year, we had fairly significant manufacturing inefficiencies in the business last year. Given the supply chain challenges, lots of people standing around in factories waiting for components that didn't show up on time and lots of expedited freight and logistics costs and so we -- despite the fact that we had a record year of profitability in 2022, we had a year of record inefficiencies as well.

是的，我想說的是，為了獲得更高的利潤而變得更好的一件大事是，第一，你正在獲得更高的銷量，而且你顯然正在提供增量，但我想說的最大的一個是，正如我們去年談到的那樣，去年我們的業務製造效率相當低下。鑑於供應鏈的挑戰，很多人站在工廠裡等待沒有按時出現的組件，以及大量的加急貨運和物流成本，所以我們——儘管我們在 2022 年實現了創紀錄的盈利年，我們也有一年創紀錄的低效率。

And so if I had to put it on one thing that's going to get better and it is getting better, it's really the elimination of many of these manufacturing inefficiencies that we've experienced over the last 12 to 18 months or so.

因此，如果我不得不把它放在一件會變得更好並且正在變得更好的事情上，那實際上是消除了我們在過去 12 到 18 個月左右的時間裡經歷過的許多製造效率低下的問題。

Okay. Volumes are on the more positive way, that makes sense. And then at the risk of beating a dead horse going back to the $600 billion of mega projects, in a very general sense, roughly what percentage of those have been bid on and awarded at this point? You said the majority haven't. So just wondering how that looks. And then what's your win rate? Your market share in the U.S., North America is about 3%, how does your win rate compared to that bogey?

好的。交易量處於更積極的方向，這是有道理的。然後冒著打死馬的風險回到 6000 億美元的大型項目，從非常一般的意義上說，目前大約有多少百分比的項目已經投標和授予？你說大多數人沒有。所以只是想知道它看起來如何。然後你的勝率是多少？你們在美國、北美的市場份額大約是 3%，與那個柏忌相比你們的勝率如何？

Yes. As I said, on these mega projects, these are all announced projects. And as I said, we said 25% of them are actually broken ground and are under construction. And I'd say that our underlying win rate on these mega projects is essentially pretty much at or above the underlying market share for the company overall. So we've been very pleased with our success rate. As we talked about earlier, the bigger the project, the more complex the project, the higher the likelihood that we would be selected. And so the underlying win rate on these projects -- and keep in mind, these products will be delivered over the next, let's say, 3 to 7 years. And so it's got -- they have a fairly long tail on them. So I wouldn't necessarily expect to see big movements in the near term based upon these projects. But the underlying win rate is good, and the underlying profitability is also good.

是的。正如我所說，在這些大型項目上，這些都是已宣布的項目。正如我所說，我們說其中 25% 實際上已經破土動工，正在建設中。我要說的是，我們在這些大型項目上的潛在贏率基本上等於或高於公司整體的潛在市場份額。所以我們對我們的成功率非常滿意。正如我們之前所說，項目越大，項目越複雜，我們被選中的可能性就越高。因此，這些項目的潛在獲勝率——請記住，這些產品將在接下來的 3 到 7 年內交付。所以它有 - 他們有一條相當長的尾巴。因此，基於這些項目，我不一定期望在短期內看到大動作。但潛在贏率不錯，潛在盈利能力也不錯。

The only thing I would amplify that for the given quarter, we were actually materially above our share win rate. So yes, we're doing well in terms of closing the deal.

對於給定的季度，我唯一要強調的是，我們實際上大大高於我們的股票贏率。所以是的，我們在完成交易方面做得很好。

The next question is from Julian Mitchell from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Julian Mitchell。

Maybe just my first question would be around a lot of electrical equipment manufacturers and sort of broader multi-industry ones have had very disproportionate price tailwinds to revenue in Q1 and a very, very substantive price cost margin tailwind as well in Q1. So I just wondered sort of on those 2 points, how do you see the pace of normalization of those 2 tailwinds over the next 12 months?

也許我的第一個問題是關於許多電氣設備製造商和更廣泛的多行業製造商在第一季度的價格順風與收入的比例非常不成比例，而且在第一季度的價格成本利潤率順風也非常非常可觀。所以我只是想知道關於這兩點，你如何看待未來 12 個月這兩個順風正常化的步伐？

Yes. I'd say -- if we look at our own business, Julian, I'd say that price versus cost, I mean, while commodity costs are certainly down versus where they were a year ago, commodity costs, in many cases, are actually up versus where they were in the fourth quarter. Take a look at steel, for example, a major commodity for us is steel. It's actually down about 25% from a year ago, but it's actually up 25% from where it was in the fourth quarter. So you have a mixed bag there.

是的。我會說 - 如果我們看看我們自己的業務，朱利安，我會說價格與成本，我的意思是，雖然商品成本肯定低於一年前的水平，但在許多情況下，商品成本是實際上與第四季度相比有所上升。以鋼鐵為例，我們的主要商品是鋼鐵。它實際上比一年前下降了約 25%，但實際上比第四季度上升了 25%。所以你有一個混合包。

And then also on the labor side, as you can imagine, we're seeing more labor inflation in the business today. And so in our own company, the price versus volume piece maybe is not as significant as it is for others. But I would say that as we look forward and embedded in our guidance is mostly, it's around volume at normal incrementals and the elimination of a lot of the inefficiencies that are in the business that's going to ultimately drive the growth in earnings and the growth in our margins more than it is this relationship between price and cost.

然後在勞動力方面，正如您可以想像的那樣，我們今天在企業中看到更多的勞動力通脹。因此，在我們自己的公司中，價格與數量的關係可能不像其他公司那麼重要。但我要說的是，當我們展望未來並嵌入我們的指導時，主要是圍繞正常增量的數量和消除業務中的許多低效率，這將最終推動收益增長和增長我們的利潤更多的是價格和成本之間的這種關係。

As we said, from a strategic standpoint, we don't think price is either additive or subtractive from the underlying margin rates of the business, and that's the way we manage the company.

正如我們所說，從戰略的角度來看，我們認為價格不會增加或減少企業的基本利潤率，這就是我們管理公司的方式。

Yes. What I would add, Julian, is we don't see ourselves losing business because of our price cost either. We're not getting feedback from our sales organization that we've got too much price. We just think we're managing effectively.

是的。朱利安，我要補充的是，我們也不會因為我們的價格成本而失去業務。我們沒有從我們的銷售組織那裡得到關於我們的價格過高的反饋。我們只是認為我們正在有效地管理。

That's helpful. And then just my quick follow-up. Craig, you mentioned those inefficiencies just now, and those are most apparent in the first quarter margins at Electrical Global and I think Vehicle. As we go through the year, we should see those margins kind of start to expand year-on-year. Just wondered when does that happen for the 2 segments? Is it as soon as the second quarter or it's more kind of the second half is when the margins expand in EG and Vehicle?

這很有幫助。然後就是我的快速跟進。克雷格，你剛才提到了那些低效率，這些在 Electrical Global 和 Vehicle 的第一季度利潤率中最為明顯。在我們度過這一年的過程中，我們應該會看到這些利潤率開始逐年擴大。只是想知道 2 個細分市場什麼時候會發生這種情況？ EG 和 Vehicle 的利潤率會在第二季度或下半年擴大嗎？

We would expect to see progress, Julian, in each quarter. I mean, without a doubt, those are the 2 places where we had some challenges specifically in inefficiencies, and we would expect then in each of the subsequent quarters to see our businesses get sequentially better.

朱利安，我們希望每個季度都能看到進展。我的意思是，毫無疑問，這是我們在效率低下方面遇到一些挑戰的兩個地方，我們預計在隨後的每個季度中，我們的業務都會逐步好轉。

For sure. And not to get too much into the accounting, but what we're seeing from last year rolled through the P&L in the first quarter and muted the margins somewhat because it was coming off of the balance sheet. So it should be a tailwind going forward.

一定。不要過多地考慮會計問題，但我們從去年看到的情況在第一季度通過損益表滾動並在一定程度上降低了利潤率，因為它正在從資產負債表中消失。因此，這應該是前進的順風。

The next question is from Chris Snyder from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Chris Snyder。

Craig, you mentioned a few times that the secular drivers coming through are pushing market growth 2x above historical levels. Is this a 2023, 2024 comment? Or do you believe that the 2x market growth rate is not the long-term view? And with that, can you just kind of quantify what the 2x uplift means for market growth from here?

克雷格，你多次提到，長期驅動因素正在推動市場增長比歷史水平高出 2 倍。這是 2023 年、2024 年的評論嗎？還是您認為 2 倍的市場增長率不是長期觀點？有了這個，你能量化一下 2 倍的提升對市場增長意味著什麼嗎？

Yes. There's no question. It is the long-term view. As you think about most of the secular trends that we're talking about, whether it's energy transition, the move to renewables, the electrification of the economy, whether it's cars or cooking appliances or equipment in your factories, the growth in digital and data and connectivity, reindustrialization, you think about all the investment that needs to go into the U.S. market as an example to basically reinvest in manufacturing that had moved offshore and the stimulus dollars that are all supporting that. So this is clearly our long-term view that we think our markets would grow at least 2x -- not 2x, but at least 2x the historical growth rates. And so we think those growth rates for the markets are in the mid-single-digit range.

是的。毫無疑問。這是長遠的看法。當你想到我們正在談論的大多數長期趨勢時，無論是能源轉型、向可再生能源的轉變、經濟的電氣化，無論是汽車、炊具還是工廠設備、數字和數據的增長和連通性，再工業化，你考慮所有需要進入美國市場的投資作為一個例子，基本上再投資於已經轉移到海外的製造業以及支持這一點的刺激資金。因此，這顯然是我們的長期觀點，我們認為我們的市場將至少增長 2 倍——不是 2 倍，但至少是歷史增長率的 2 倍。因此，我們認為市場的增長率處於中個位數範圍內。

I appreciate that. And then if I want to -- just my follow-up on the U.S. mega projects and just broader domestic investment. There's been a focus of the administration to drive higher domestic content on projects or infrastructure where the government is providing incentives. Does this have a material benefit for Eaton as a U.S. manufacturer and could it allow the company to take higher share or even maybe just protect margins or support margins on these mega projects relative to prior cycles?

我很感激。然後，如果我想——只是我對美國大型項目和更廣泛的國內投資的後續行動。政府的重點是在政府提供激勵的項目或基礎設施上推動更高的國內含量。這對作為美國製造商的伊頓公司是否有實質性好處，是否可以讓公司獲得更高的份額，甚至可能只是保護這些大型項目的利潤率或支持相對於先前週期的利潤率？

Yes. What I would tell you is that where we get the most direct benefit is the fact that we tend to have higher market shares in the U.S. Most of the global electrical companies that we compete with around the world, they also have fairly much localized much of what they do. But our U.S. market shares just tend to be higher. And so we'll get an unfair share of projects as this reindustrialization and manufacturing takes place in the U.S. market.

是的。我要告訴你的是，我們獲得最直接利益的地方是我們往往在美國擁有更高的市場份額。我們在世界各地與之競爭的大多數全球電氣公司，他們也有相當多的本地化他們做什麼。但我們在美國的市場份額往往更高。因此，隨著這種再工業化和製造業發生在美國市場，我們將獲得不公平的項目份額。

The next question is from David Raso from Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

So the growth rate exiting '23. Just for the framework of how you're laying out your organic sales growth. Is it right to assume it's 15% first quarter, you're saying 11% for the second quarter and then the back half of the year is about 7%. So let's call it 8% in the third and 6% in the fourth. Is that just a decent general framework of how we're exiting '23 that kind of 6% growth rate is the framework?

所以增長率退出'23。僅針對您如何規劃有機銷售增長的框架。假設第一季度為 15% 是否正確，你說第二季度為 11%，然後今年下半年約為 7%。所以我們稱第三個為 8%，第四個為 6%。這只是我們如何退出 23 年那種 6% 的增長率的一般框架嗎？

Yes. And I'd say that at this point -- and we missed the front end of your question, but I think I get the gist of what you're asking that based upon the implied numbers in our guidance, order of magnitude, 7% growth rate would be the exit rate for the year, and there's a lot of assumptions that we need to work through to really understand what's the guidance is going to be for next year, what happens with supply chain, how the year unfolds. But I don't -- given where we sit today, if you had to pick a number, that would not be a bad starting point if you're looking to make an assumption for what 2024 looks like. It wouldn't be a bad starting point.

是的。在這一點上我要說的是——我們錯過了你問題的前端，但我想我根據我們指導中的隱含數字，數量級，7% 得到了你要問的內容的要點增長率將是今年的退出率，我們需要做很多假設才能真正了解明年的指導方針是什麼，供應鏈會發生什麼，今年如何展開。但我不——鑑於我們今天所處的位置，如果你必須選擇一個數字，如果你想對 2024 年的情況做出假設，那將是一個不錯的起點。這將是一個不錯的起點。

But keep in mind, as we talked about, there are certain of our markets that we think are going to really inflect very positively next year, Aerospace is one. And so early days, but if you had to put an anchor down today as a starting point, it wouldn't be a bad place to start.

但請記住，正如我們所說，我們認為明年我們的某些市場將真正發生非常積極的變化，航空航天就是其中之一。這麼早的日子，但如果你今天必須放下錨點作為起點，那將是一個不錯的起點。

Yes. I'm just trying to think through how much negativity you already have baked into Vehicle to end the year, particularly the truck part would probably be viewed positively. So I guess within Vehicle, do we have truck down by the fourth quarter. Aerospace is 150% the size of trucks. So if Aero is up big in '24, no problem. If trucks down even significantly? But I'm just trying to get a level...

是的。我只是想仔細想想你已經為今年年底的車輛注入了多少消極情緒，特別是卡車部分可能會被積極看待。所以我想在 Vehicle 中，我們是否會在第四季度之前減少卡車。航空航天是卡車大小的 150%。因此，如果 Aero 在 24 年大放異彩，那沒問題。如果卡車下降甚至顯著？但我只是想達到一個水平...

We do have -- by the time we get to the fourth quarter of this year, we think North America Class 8 truck will be negative, and that is baked into our assumptions.

我們確實有 - 到今年第四季度時，我們認為北美 8 級卡車將是負面的，這已融入我們的假設中。

The next question is from Phil Buller from Berenberg.

下一個問題來自 Berenberg 的 Phil Buller。

A question for Craig in relation to the portfolio. Obviously, this has come along quite a lot on your watch, and you framed things with this, I guess, grow the head and shrink or fix the tail analogy, which has now aligned the group very nicely to these mega trends. But I'm wondering if there's much of a tail at this point? I don't get that sense from the prepared remarks. I get that there's always room for some incremental self-help here and there, and you touched on some of the efficiencies. But what, if anything, would you be deprioritizing from here in terms of organic or inorganic investment? And I guess I'm asking in relation to the Vehicle segment or trucks or potentially there's something else that you'd call out?

克雷格關於投資組合的問題。顯然，這在你的手錶上出現了很多，我猜你用這個來框定事物，增長頭部和縮小或修復尾巴類比，現在已經使團隊很好地適應了這些大趨勢。但我想知道此時是否有很多尾巴？我沒有從準備好的評論中得到那種感覺。我知道這里和那裡總是有一些增量自助的空間，你談到了一些效率。但是，如果有的話，你會在有機或無機投資方面從這裡降低什麼？而且我想我問的是與車輛部分或卡車有關的問題，或者可能還有其他你會提到的東西？

Yes. No, I'd say that I appreciate the acknowledgment. We have done a lot of work to position the portfolio to be where we are at this moment in time to really participate in the secular tailwinds, and that's certainly paying off.

是的。不，我會說我很感激你的認可。我們已經做了很多工作來將投資組合定位到我們目前所處的位置，以真正參與長期順風，這肯定是有回報的。

And to your point as well, we think we're never done with the portfolio. I mean, clearly, every year, we go through a fairly comprehensive process with our Board of Directors, looking at every business in the portfolio and understanding whether we like it today, we're going to like it 5 years from now. And so that is a very well in green process inside of our company as we look at the portfolio. And so we will continue to do that. We'll continue to evaluate every piece of the portfolio, not only the Vehicle businesses, but we're going to evaluate everything.

對於您的觀點，我們認為我們永遠不會完成投資組合。我的意思是，很明顯，每一年，我們都會與董事會一起經歷一個相當全面的過程，審視投資組合中的每一項業務，並了解我們今天是否喜歡它，我們會在 5 年後喜歡它。因此，當我們審視產品組合時，這是我們公司內部的一個非常好的綠色流程。因此，我們將繼續這樣做。我們將繼續評估投資組合的每一部分，不僅是車輛業務，而且我們將評估所有內容。

Today, we like where we are. We think there's a real synergistic element of what we do today across Aerospace, across Vehicle as the whole world and the Mobility space specifically continues to electrify. We're getting real benefit today by -- as we launch this new eMobility segment by being a legacy provider to all of the automotive OEMs around the world. And so today, it works. We can't say that it's going to always work into the future. Every business has got to earn the right to stay a part of the portfolio. And that message is one that we deliver to everything, to every part of the company, not just to the Vehicle team.

今天，我們喜歡我們所在的地方。我們認為，我們今天在整個航空航天、整個車輛以及整個世界所做的工作具有真正的協同作用，特別是移動領域繼續電氣化。作為全球所有汽車原始設備製造商的傳統供應商，我們今天獲得了真正的好處——因為我們推出了這個新的 eMobility 細分市場。所以今天，它起作用了。我們不能說它會一直有效到未來。每個企業都必須贏得保留其投資組合一部分的權利。這一信息是我們向公司的每個部門、而不僅僅是車輛團隊傳達的信息。

Yes. A tangible example of that is if you go back to the prepared remarks in Electrical Global, we actually had a divestiture, which impacted the results in the quarter. It would be nonstrategic by our (inaudible) fee line, and it's a great example of how we're fixing the tail. Craig is constantly challenging the organization for that.

是的。一個具體的例子是，如果你回到 Electrical Global 準備好的評論，我們實際上進行了資產剝離，這影響了本季度的結果。根據我們的（聽不清）費用線，這將是非戰略性的，這是我們如何修復尾巴的一個很好的例子。克雷格為此不斷挑戰組織。

That's great. And just one very quick follow-up, if I may. In terms of the defense business, obviously, it's a good spot to be in terms of the growth outlook, but there's a lot of investors where defense exposure is a bit of a hurdle, particularly so for some European investors. So I'm wondering how you're thinking about defense M&A from here and whether or not that's a high or a low priority for you going forward?

那太棒了。如果可以的話，只是一個非常快速的跟進。就國防業務而言，顯然，就增長前景而言，這是一個不錯的選擇，但有很多投資者認為國防風險敞口有點障礙，對一些歐洲投資者來說尤其如此。所以我想知道你是如何從這裡考慮國防併購的，這對你來說是高優先級還是低優先級？

Yes, I'd say strategically, the way we think about the Aerospace business is you're either in or out. And if you're going to be in Aerospace, you need to be in defense. It's an important part of national security for sure. So there's a -- we understand the ESG-related concerns. And we understand that many investors have this 5% threshold. Today, defense is close to that number for Eaton. It's maybe 5% to 6% of our business overall. But I'd say that for us, we're really focusing on good businesses that make strategic sense for the company.

是的，我會從戰略上說，我們對航空航天業務的看法是你要么進要么出。如果你要進入航空航天領域，你就需要處於防御狀態。這肯定是國家安全的重要組成部分。所以有一個——我們理解與 ESG 相關的擔憂。我們了解到許多投資者都有這個 5% 的門檻。今天，伊頓的防守已經接近這個數字。它可能占我們整體業務的 5% 到 6%。但我要說的是，對我們來說，我們真正關注的是對公司具有戰略意義的優秀業務。

And Aerospace is a platform within the company that we'd like to continue to grow. It's a good business. It's got all the right characteristics in businesses that we like. It's high margin. It's a highly differentiated based upon technology. You've got great position on platforms with a huge aftermarket that runs for decades. And so it has all the right set of characteristics for businesses that we like.

航空航天是公司內部的一個平台，我們希望繼續發展。這是一門好生意。它具有我們喜歡的企業的所有正確特徵。這是高利潤率。這是基於技術的高度差異化。您在擁有運行數十年的龐大售後市場的平台上佔據了有利位置。因此，它具有適合我們喜歡的企業的所有正確特徵。

So we will continue to prioritize first and foremost, Electrical, as we've said in the past, for a lot of reasons including these secular tailwinds. But Aerospace, from a priority standpoint, is second only behind Electrical.

因此，正如我們過去所說，出於很多原因，包括這些長期順風，我們將繼續優先考慮電氣。但從優先級的角度來看，航空航天僅次於電氣。

Thank you and at this time, there are no further questions in queue. Please continue.

謝謝，此時，隊列中沒有其他問題。請繼續。

Okay, guys. Thanks. As always, [Chip] and I will be available for answering any follow-up questions. Have a good day, guys.

好的，伙計們。謝謝。一如既往，[Chip] 和我將隨時回答任何後續問題。祝你有美好的一天，伙計們。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T teleconference service. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。女士們，先生們，我們今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與和使用 AT&T 電話會議服務。您現在可以斷開連接。