伊頓 (ETN) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the Eaton Third Quarter Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

女士們先生們，感謝您的支持並歡迎參加伊頓第三季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，今天的通話正在錄音中。

I'll turn the call now over to Mr. Yan Jin, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係高級副總裁 Yan Jin 先生。請繼續。

Good morning. Thank you all for joining us for Eaton's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. With me today are Craig Arnold, our Chairman and CEO; and Tom Okray, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer.

早上好。感謝大家參加伊頓 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。今天和我在一起的是我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Craig Arnold；和執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Tom Okray。

Our agenda today, including the opening remarks by Craig, then he will turn it over to Tom, who will highlight the company's performance in the third quarter. As we have done on our past calls, we'll be taking questions at end of Craig's closing commentary. The press release and the presentation we'll go through today have been posted on our website. This presentation includes adjusted earnings per share, adjusted free cash flow and other non-GAAP measures. They're reconciled in the appendix. A webcast of this call is accessible on our website and will be available for replay.

我們今天的議程，包括克雷格的開場白，然後他將把它交給湯姆，湯姆將重點介紹公司第三季度的業績。正如我們在過去的電話會議中所做的那樣，我們將在克雷格的結束評論結束時回答問題。我們今天將通過的新聞稿和演示文稿已發佈在我們的網站上。該演示文稿包括調整後的每股收益、調整後的自由現金流和其他非公認會計準則指標。它們在附錄中得到了協調。可在我們的網站上收聽此次電話會議的網絡廣播，並可進行重播。

I would like to remind you that our comments today will include the statements related to the expected future results of the company and are therefore forward-looking statements. Our actual results may differ materially from our forecasted projections due to a wide range of risks and uncertainties that are described in our earnings release and the presentation.

我想提醒您，我們今天的評論將包括與公司預期未來業績相關的陳述，因此是前瞻性陳述。由於我們的收益發布和演示文稿中描述了廣泛的風險和不確定性，我們的實際結果可能與我們的預測預測存在重大差異。

With that, I will turn over to Craig.

有了這個，我將交給克雷格。

Thanks, Yan. We'll begin with the highlights of the quarter on Page 3, and I'll start by noting that we delivered another very strong quarter and have again posted a number of all-time records, including adjusted earnings per share of $2.02, which is up 15% from prior year. This, despite negative impact of FX and the divested Hydraulics business, which took place in August of 2021.

謝謝，嚴。我們將從第 3 頁的季度亮點開始，首先我會指出，我們實現了另一個非常強勁的季度，並再次發布了多項歷史記錄，包括調整後每股收益 2.02 美元，即比上年增長 15%。儘管 FX 和剝離的液壓業務產生了負面影響，但該業務於 2021 年 8 月發生。

Our organic revenue growth also continued to accelerate in the quarter, up 11% in Q2 to up 15% in Q3. And I think, encouragingly, we had strength across all of our businesses with exceptional growth in Electrical Americas, in Vehicle and eMobility. We also posted all-time segment margins of 21.2%, up 130 basis points over prior year and above the high end of our guidance with incrementals of 38% in the quarter.

我們的有機收入增長在本季度也繼續加速，第二季度增長 11%，第三季度增長 15%。而且我認為，令人鼓舞的是，我們在所有業務中都擁有實力，在美國電氣、車輛和電動汽車領域實現了非凡的增長。我們還公佈了 21.2% 的歷史分部利潤率，比去年同期增長 130 個基點，高於我們指引的高端，本季度增長了 38%。

I'd also note that our team continues to manage price effectively more than fully offsetting the impact of inflation. As noted here, orders continued to accelerate in the quarter as well. On a rolling 12-month basis, Electrical orders increased 27% versus 25% last quarter, and our Aerospace orders increased 22% compared to 19% last quarter. This order strength, I'd say, also led to another quarter of record backlogs in Electrical, which were up some 75%, and our Aerospace backlogs increased by 17%.

我還要指出，我們的團隊繼續有效地管理價格，而不是完全抵消通貨膨脹的影響。如此處所述，本季度的訂單也繼續加速增長。在連續 12 個月的基礎上，電氣訂單從上一季度的 25% 增長了 27%，我們的航空航天訂單從上一季度的 19% 增長了 22%。我想說的是，這種訂單強度也導致電氣領域的積壓訂單又增加了四分之一，增加了約 75%，我們的航空航天積壓訂單增加了 17%。

Lastly, we did start to generate positive momentum in our cash flow results. We had a strong year-on-year performance with operating cash flow up 29% and a 30% increase in free cash flow. And our free cash flow as a percentage of sales was 15.6% in the quarter. So as expected, we're starting to see improved cash flow from both higher earnings and improved working capital performance.

最後，我們確實開始在現金流結果中產生積極的勢頭。我們的業績同比強勁，經營現金流增長 29%，自由現金流增長 30%。本季度我們的自由現金流佔銷售額的百分比為 15.6%。因此，正如預期的那樣，我們開始看到更高的收益和改善的營運資本績效帶來的現金流改善。

Moving to Page 4. And before I turn things over to Tom to go through the quarterly results, I want to highlight a few of the key themes that are really underpinning our confidence in our long-term growth outlook. As noted here, we continue to benefit from the 3 secular growth trends that we reviewed earlier: electrification, energy transition and digitalization. And while still in the early stages, we booked some $700 million of new wins in the quarter that are directly tied to these trends.

轉到第 4 頁。在我將事情交給湯姆查看季度業績之前，我想強調一些真正支持我們對長期增長前景的信心的關鍵主題。如本文所述，我們繼續受益於我們之前回顧的 3 個長期增長趨勢：電氣化、能源轉型和數字化。雖然仍處於早期階段，但我們在本季度預訂了與這些趨勢直接相關的約 7 億美元的新勝利。

Within electrification, you've all read the announcements of the very large number of manufacturing projects in the U.S. that includes new semiconductor facilities, big investments in new electric vehicle manufacturing plants, new EV battery investments and investments in EV charging infrastructure. In fact, there's been some $1.3 trillion of new projects announced this year alone. And the impact of stimulus bill is yet to show up in these numbers. These incentives will point towards large investments that are tied to improving electrical infrastructure and will deliver significant benefits over the next few years.

在電氣化方面，你們都已經閱讀了美國大量製造項目的公告，其中包括新的半導體設施、對新電動汽車製造廠的大量投資、新的電動汽車電池投資和對電動汽車充電基礎設施的投資。事實上，僅今年一年就宣布了大約 1.3 萬億美元的新項目。刺激法案的影響尚未在這些數字中體現出來。這些激勵措施將指向與改善電力基礎設施相關的大型投資，並將在未來幾年內帶來顯著收益。

The next large growth driver is energy transition. The move away from fossil to renewables that's taken place for a number of years now, and this trend will only accelerate. And with every renewable resource addition, it requires electrical infrastructure. But it's not just, I'd say, connecting power to the grid. It's also investments in technology to keep the grid stable to manage different sources of electrical power, investments in batteries to store excess energy. And these are all products and services that we naturally provide.

下一個巨大的增長動力是能源轉型。從化石能源到可再生能源的轉變已經發生了多年，而且這種趨勢只會加速。每增加一次可再生資源，都需要電力基礎設施。但我想說，這不僅僅是將電力連接到電網。它還投資於技術以保持電網穩定以管理不同的電力來源，投資於電池以儲存多餘的能量。而這些都是我們自然提供的產品和服務。

Beyond renewables, we're also seeing an increase in investments relating to improving grid resiliency, which has become a priority due to extreme weather events and really the demand for a need for energy independence.

除了可再生能源之外，我們還看到與提高電網彈性相關的投資有所增加，由於極端天氣事件和對能源獨立需求的需求，這已成為優先事項。

And lastly, our emerging digital society will drive higher selling prices as we add intelligence to our legacy products. We'll sell new value from data and insights and create new software solutions, all of which require data centers, an important growth segment for Eaton. These I say are just a few of the reasons why we remain confident and our electrical businesses and their ability to deliver higher levels of organic growth for some years to come.

最後，隨著我們為傳統產品增加智能，我們新興的數字社會將推動更高的銷售價格。我們將從數據和洞察中銷售新價值，並創建新的軟件解決方案，所有這些都需要數據中心，這是伊頓的重要增長部分。我所說的這些只是我們保持信心、我們的電氣業務及其在未來幾年實現更高水平有機增長的能力的幾個原因。

And as Slide 5 reflects, we have a number of attractive growth drivers in our industrial businesses as well. I'll begin with the most notable one, vehicle electrification. Here, the outlook for EV penetration continues to accelerate, but with new announcements coming almost every week. And I say here, not just in passenger cars, we're also seeing increasing need for electrification projects in commercial vehicles, some for the entire system but often for a subsystem of the vehicle. And I'd also note here the opportunities we're seeing tied to the acquisition of Royal Power are much larger than we anticipated, and our eMobility pipeline continues to be very robust. Just as a point of reference, our opportunity per vehicle on an EV is some 18x higher than the opportunity that we have on a traditional internal combustion engine. And you'll recall, we expect our eMobility segment to become $2 billion to $4 billion in revenue over the next number of years.

正如幻燈片 5 所反映的，我們的工業業務也有許多有吸引力的增長動力。我將從最值得注意的一個開始，即汽車電氣化。在這裡，電動汽車普及率的前景繼續加速，但幾乎每週都有新的公告發布。我在這裡說，不僅在乘用車中，我們還看到對商用車電氣化項目的需求不斷增加，有些是針對整個系統，但通常是針對車輛的子系統。我還要在這裡指出，我們看到與收購 Royal Power 相關的機會比我們預期的要大得多，而且我們的 eMobility 管道繼續非常強勁。作為參考，我們在 EV 上每輛車的機會比我們在傳統內燃機上的機會高 18 倍。您還記得，我們預計我們的電動汽車部門在未來幾年的收入將達到 20 億至 40 億美元。

The next growth driver is tied to what we're doing in our legacy Vehicle business, which is finding new applications for existing technology. We're seeing a number of new opportunities for our commercial engine brake technology, for our mechanical gears that are used in electric vehicles, and for our advanced valve train actuation technology. In all 3 cases, we've already booked significant new wins here.

下一個增長動力與我們在傳統車輛業務中所做的事情相關，即為現有技術尋找新應用。對於我們的商用發動機制動技術、用於電動汽車的機械齒輪以及我們先進的氣門機構驅動技術，我們看到了許多新機遇。在所有 3 個案例中，我們已經在這裡預訂了重要的新勝利。

Third, we're benefiting from the aerospace industry growth cycle, which, over the next several years, will continue to accelerate. Commercial passenger growth has continued to improve and it's translating into significant growth in commercial aftermarket orders, which, by the way, were up some 40% year-to-date. And commercial OEM build rates are forecasted to grow some 15% over the next 4 years.

第三，我們正在受益於航空航天業的增長周期，在接下來的幾年中，該增長周期將繼續加速。商業客運增長持續改善，並轉化為商業售後市場訂單的顯著增長，順便說一句，今年迄今增長了約 40%。預計未來 4 年商業 OEM 製造率將增長約 15%。

Lastly, I'd note that with our acquisitions of Souriau and Mission Systems, we expect to see even better growth given our position on high-growth platforms and as we begin to realize sales synergies.

最後，我要指出的是，隨著我們對 Souriau 和 Mission Systems 的收購，鑑於我們在高增長平台上的地位以及我們開始實現銷售協同效應，我們預計會看到更好的增長。

Overall, just stepping back from this particular set of initiatives, we've delivered some $250 million of wins in industrial. And when added to what we noted in Electrical, we delivered almost $1 billion of growth tied to the secular growth trends in our markets.

總體而言，僅從這一系列特定舉措中退出，我們已經在工業領域贏得了約 2.5 億美元的勝利。再加上我們在電氣方面提到的內容，我們實現了近 10 億美元的增長，這與我們市場的長期增長趨勢相關。

So with that, what I'd like to do at this point is turn it over to Tom and ask him to walk through the quarterly results.

因此，在這一點上，我想做的就是把它交給湯姆，讓他看看季度業績。

Thanks, Craig. I'll begin with noting a few key points regarding our Q3 results. Our revenue was up 8% with organic growth of 15%, partially offset by a 4% foreign exchange headwind and a 3% unfavorable net impact of acquisitions and divestitures.

謝謝，克雷格。我將首先指出關於我們第三季度業績的幾個關鍵點。我們的收入增長 8%，有機增長 15%，部分被 4% 的外匯逆風和 3% 的收購和剝離的不利淨影響所抵消。

Related to the acquisitions and divestitures, the acquisition of Royal Power increased revenue by 1% while the sale of Hydraulics reduced revenues by 3% -- by 4%, sorry, for a net of 3%. With total revenue growth of 8%, we posted solid operating leverage, with 15% growth in both operating profit and adjusted EPS.

與收購和資產剝離相關，收購 Royal Power 使收入增加了 1%，而出售液壓公司使收入減少了 3%——抱歉，減少了 4%，淨減少了 3%。隨著總收入增長 8%，我們公佈了穩健的經營槓桿，營業利潤和調整後每股收益均增長了 15%。

It's worth noting that the foreign exchange headwind of 4% had an $0.08 impact on adjusted EPS, which was larger than our 3% guidance estimate. Further, growth in adjusted EPS of 15% would have been 22%, excluding the $0.08 impact from FX and the $0.03 net impact from acquisitions and divestitures. All in, stronger organic growth and higher margins enabled us to report adjusted EPS of $2.02 that was above our guidance midpoint.

值得注意的是，4% 的外匯逆風對調整後的每股收益產生了 0.08 美元的影響，高於我們 3% 的指導估計。此外，調整後每股收益增長 15% 為 22%，不包括 0.08 美元的外匯影響以及 0.03 美元的收購和資產剝離淨影響。總而言之，更強勁的有機增長和更高的利潤率使我們能夠報告調整後的每股收益為 2.02 美元，高於我們的指導中點。

Finally, as we did last quarter, we continue to raise the bar with all-time records in adjusted EPS, segment operating profit and segment margin.

最後，正如我們上個季度所做的那樣，我們繼續提高調整後每股收益、部門營業利潤和部門利潤率的歷史記錄。

Moving to the next slide. Electrical Americas had another very strong quarter. We set all-time records for sales, operating profit and margin. Revenue growth accelerated to 18% organically, driven by strength in all end markets, with particular strength in commercial and institutional, residential, industrial and utility end markets. Operating margin at 23.5% was up 180 basis points versus prior year, benefiting from higher volumes.

轉到下一張幻燈片。電氣美洲有另一個非常強勁的季度。我們創造了銷售、營業利潤和利潤率的歷史記錄。在所有終端市場的強勢推動下，收入增長有機地加速至 18%，尤其是在商業和機構、住宅、工業和公用事業終端市場的強勢。營業利潤率為 23.5%，較上年增長 180 個基點，受益於銷量增加。

With respect to price, we continue to manage price effectively to more than offset inflationary pressures in the segment. In addition, our demand continues to remain very strong. Orders on a rolling 12-month basis accelerated sequentially, coming in at 36% year-over-year versus 29% in the prior quarter. Our orders were strong across the board, with particular strength in data center, utility and industrial end markets. This order growth translated into another record quarter of backlog, up 97%. On a sequential basis, backlog is up 14% versus the prior quarter. In addition to the robust trends in orders and backlog, our major project negotiations pipeline more than doubled year-over-year, driven by especially strong growth in manufacturing, data center, industrial and utility end markets.

在價格方面，我們繼續有效地管理價格，以抵消該細分市場的通脹壓力。此外，我們的需求仍然非常強勁。連續 12 個月的訂單量環比增長，同比增長 36%，而上一季度為 29%。我們的訂單全面強勁，尤其是在數據中心、公用事業和工業終端市場。這一訂單增長轉化為另一個創紀錄的季度積壓訂單，增長了 97%。在連續的基礎上，積壓比上一季度增加了 14%。除了訂單和積壓的強勁趨勢外，在製造業、數據中心、工業和公用事業終端市場特別強勁的增長推動下，我們的主要項目談判渠道同比增長了一倍多。

Turning to Page 8. Electrical Global results were also very strong, generating a Q3 record for revenue and all-time records for operating profit and margin. Organic growth was up 13% with an 8% foreign exchange headwind. Notably, this is the sixth quarter in a row of double-digit organic revenue growth. We saw solid organic growth in all regions with particular strength in our global Crouse-Hinds B-Line business and solid growth in both Europe and Asia Pacific. We posted record segment margin of 20.6%, up 50 basis points year-over-year. Similar to Electrical Americas, higher volume was a margin tailwind versus the prior year, and we continue to manage price effectively to more than offset inflationary pressures. Orders were up 14% organically on a rolling 12-month basis with strength in commercial and institutional and industrial end markets. Backlog growth remained strong at up 22%.

轉到第 8 頁。Electrical Global 的業績也非常強勁，創造了第三季度的收入記錄和營業利潤和利潤率的歷史記錄。在外匯逆風 8% 的情況下，有機增長增長了 13%。值得注意的是，這是連續第六個季度實現兩位數的有機收入增長。我們在所有地區都看到了穩健的有機增長，尤其是我們的全球 Crouse-Hinds B-Line 業務以及歐洲和亞太地區的穩健增長。我們公佈了創紀錄的 20.6% 的分部利潤率，同比增長 50 個基點。與美國電氣公司類似，與去年相比，銷量增加是利潤的順風車，我們將繼續有效地管理價格以抵消通脹壓力。訂單連續 12 個月有機增長 14%，商業、機構和工業終端市場表現強勁。積壓增長依然強勁，增長了 22%。

Before moving to our Industrial businesses, I'd like to briefly recap the very strong results of our combined Electrical segment. For Q3, we posted accelerating organic growth of 16%, incremental margin of 33%, and operating margin of 22.3% with 130 basis points of year-over-year margin improvement. We also generated orders and backlog growth of 27% and 75%, respectively with more than doubling of our negotiation pipeline in the United States. We remain very well positioned for profitable growth in our overall electrical businesses.

在轉向我們的工業業務之前，我想簡要回顧一下我們合併的電氣部門的強勁業績。第三季度，我們公佈了 16% 的加速有機增長、33% 的增量利潤率和 22.3% 的營業利潤率，利潤率同比提高 130 個基點。我們的訂單和積壓訂單也分別增長了 27% 和 75%，我們在美國的談判渠道增加了一倍以上。我們在整體電氣業務的盈利增長方面仍然處於有利地位。

Our Aerospace segment results are captured on the next page. Aerospace also generated records in the quarter, with an all-time sales revenue record and a Q3 operating profit record. Organic revenue increased 8%, with 5% foreign exchange headwinds. Organic growth in the quarter was particularly strong in our commercial aftermarket and commercial OEM markets.

我們的航空航天部門的結果在下一頁上。航空航天在本季度也創造了記錄，銷售收入創歷史新高，第三季度營業利潤創歷史新高。有機收入增長 8%，外匯逆風為 5%。本季度的有機增長在我們的商業售後市場和商業 OEM 市場尤為強勁。

Encouragingly, the military aftermarket grew in the quarter. Operating margin of 24% was up 200 basis points from the prior year, benefiting from volume growth. On a rolling 12-month basis, our order acceleration continued, now 22% versus up 19% last quarter, including military OEM markets that were also up 22%. We saw order strength in all end markets as travel continues to accelerate within commercial markets and military orders strengthened consistent with our expectations for increased defense spending. Backlog remained strong with a 17% increase over prior year and up 5% sequentially.

令人鼓舞的是，軍用售後市場在本季度有所增長。得益於銷量增長，營業利潤率為 24%，比上年增長 200 個基點。在連續 12 個月的基礎上，我們的訂單繼續加速增長，現在增長了 22%，而上一季度增長了 19%，包括軍事 OEM 市場也增長了 22%。我們看到所有終端市場的訂單強勁，因為商業市場內的旅行繼續加速，軍事訂單的加強與我們對增加國防開支的預期一致。積壓訂單依然強勁，比上年增長 17%，環比增長 5%。

Moving on to our Vehicle segment. Organic revenue grew 19%. We also experienced a 3% headwind from FX. We had strength in the North America, South America and [IEMA] markets. Our North American light motor vehicle business was especially strong with nearly 25% organic growth, while our South American business was up more than 35%.

繼續我們的車輛部分。有機收入增長了 19%。我們還經歷了來自 FX 的 3% 的逆風。我們在北美、南美和 [IEMA] 市場擁有實力。我們的北美輕型汽車業務尤其強勁，有機增長近 25%，而我們的南美業務增長超過 35%。

Operating margin of 16.8% was down 120 basis points versus prior year primarily due to manufacturing inefficiencies. However, it's important to note improvement in our ability to offset higher inflationary cost with price. This is reflected in sequential margin improvement of 150 basis points from Q2. Incremental margins on a sequential basis were up nearly 50%, with solid volume growth and continued progress on price cost.

營業利潤率為 16.8%，較上年下降 120 個基點，主要是由於製造效率低下。然而，重要的是要注意我們用價格抵消較高通脹成本的能力有所提高。這反映在與第二季度相比連續提高 150 個基點的利潤率上。利潤率環比增長近 50%，銷量增長穩健，價格成本持續上漲。

Moving to Page 11. We show results for our eMobility business. Revenues grew 63%, including 17% organic growth, 49% from the acquisition of Royal Power, and 3% foreign exchange headwind. We continued the trend of narrowing the operating loss on a year-over-year basis. This quarter, operating margin improved 800 basis points driven by organic volume growth and the impact from the Royal Power acquisition.

轉到第 11 頁。我們展示了我們的 eMobility 業務的成果。收入增長 63%，其中包括 17% 的有機增長、49% 的收購 Royal Power 以及 3% 的外匯逆風。我們延續了經營虧損同比收窄的趨勢。本季度，在有機銷量增長和收購 Royal Power 的影響的推動下，營業利潤率提高了 800 個基點。

We are seeing continued momentum to achieve our $2 billion to $4 billion revenue target with new platform wins for power protection solutions, including additional Breaktor wins. Our opportunity pipeline remains robust for innovative power distribution, conversion and protection solutions.

我們看到了實現我們 20 億至 40 億美元收入目標的持續動力，贏得了新的電源保護解決方案平台，包括額外的 Breaktor 勝利。對於創新的配電、轉換和保護解決方案，我們的機會管道仍然強勁。

On the following slide, we have a summary of our guidance for the year. As noted on the chart, we are reaffirming 2022 organic growth and operating margin guidance in total. Further, we are reaffirming both metrics for all segments, except eMobility operating margin. More specifically, we continue to expect organic growth in the range of 11% to 13% and operating margin from 20% to 20.4%.

在下面的幻燈片中，我們總結了今年的指導。如圖所示，我們總體上重申了 2022 年的有機增長和營業利潤率指導。此外，我們重申所有細分市場的這兩個指標，但電動汽車運營利潤率除外。更具體地說，我們繼續預計有機增長在 11% 到 13% 之間，營業利潤率從 20% 到 20.4%。

Turning to Page 13. We show the balance of guidance for 2022. We're not making significant changes to our full year outlook. We tightened our adjusted EPS range of $7.51 to $7.61 per share from the prior guide of $7.36 to $7.76. Consistent with the foreign exchange headwinds that we mentioned throughout the presentation, we increased the unfavorable translation impact to $600 million from $450 million in our previous guide. Our full year expectations for the other items are unchanged.

轉到第 13 頁。我們展示了 2022 年指導的餘額。我們不會對全年展望做出重大改變。我們將調整後的每股收益範圍從 7.36 美元至 7.76 美元收緊為每股 7.51 美元至 7.61 美元。與我們在整個演示文稿中提到的外匯逆風一致，我們將不利的翻譯影響從之前指南中的 4.5 億美元增加到 6 億美元。我們對其他項目的全年預期保持不變。

With respect to cash flow, orders and backlog have grown significantly more than our expectation. In addition, we have been and will continue to prioritize customers and profitable revenue growth at the expense of cash flow. Therefore, while we have good cash flow momentum in Q3, we have work to do to achieve our objectives.

在現金流方面，訂單和積壓訂單的增長明顯超過我們的預期。此外，我們一直並將繼續以犧牲現金流為代價優先考慮客戶和盈利性收入增長。因此，雖然我們在第三季度擁有良好的現金流勢頭，但我們仍有工作要做以實現我們的目標。

Shifting to Q4. Highlighting a few key points on our Q4 guidance. We expect adjusted EPS to be in the $2 and $2.10 range, organic growth to be between 13% and 15%, and operating margin to be between 20.5% and 20.9%. Comparing to the prior year, adjusted EPS and operating margin guidance at the midpoint represents over 19% growth and 140 basis points increase, respectively.

轉向第四季度。強調我們第四季度指導的幾個關鍵點。我們預計調整後的每股收益將在 2 美元至 2.10 美元之間，有機增長將在 13% 至 15% 之間，營業利潤率將在 20.5% 至 20.9% 之間。與上一年相比，中點調整後的每股收益和營業利潤率指引分別代表超過 19% 的增長和 140 個基點的增長。

Now I will hand it back to Craig to walk us through our market outlook and wrap up the presentation.

現在我將把它交還給克雷格，帶我們了解我們的市場前景並結束演示。

Thanks, Tom. Turning to Page 14, we provide an early look at our end market assumptions for 2023. And let me begin by saying that we are expecting to see a typical model recession next year, but don't expect it will have a significant impact on our growth given the secular growth trends, the strong orders and the record backlog that we're sitting on.

謝謝，湯姆。轉到第 14 頁，我們提供了對 2023 年終端市場假設的初步了解。首先讓我說，我們預計明年會出現典型的衰退，但不要指望它會對我們的鑑於長期增長趨勢、強勁的訂單和我們所坐的創紀錄的積壓訂單。

Within Electrical, data centers, industrial facilities and the utility market are all expected to see very good growth. Together, they account for approximately 40% of our total revenue and, quite frankly, have some of the strongest orders and backlogs in the company. As a point of reference, industrial projects announced this year so far are up some 300%. So you can see really strong momentum in these segments of the business.

在電氣、數據中心、工業設施和公用事業市場中，預計都將出現非常好的增長。它們加在一起約占我們總收入的 40%，而且坦率地說，它們擁有公司中一些最強勁的訂單和積壓訂單。作為參考，今年迄今宣布的工業項目增長了約 300%。因此，您可以在這些業務領域看到非常強勁的勢頭。

Commercial and institutional as well as machinery are expected to see more modest growth. Of note, orders in C&I continued to accelerate in the quarter with significant strength in government and institutional. And this is the segment where you'd imagine we expect to see significant benefits from stimulus spending.

商業和機構以及機械預計將出現更溫和的增長。值得注意的是，本季度工商業的訂單繼續加速增長，政府和機構的實力顯著。這是您可以想像的部分，我們期望從刺激支出中看到顯著收益。

The one relatively weak segment is expected to be residential. And while we've not seen a downturn yet and our orders are up some [23%] on a rolling 12-month basis through Q3, we do expect the [same one] of next year. I would, however, note that resi only accounts for 7% of the total company sales and that residential new build market will be somewhat offset by the renovation market, and the renovation market accounts for some 40% of our residential sales. And I'd also note that we'd expect to see higher electric content per home, which is what we've been seeing over the last number of years.

一個相對薄弱的部分預計將是住宅。雖然我們還沒有看到經濟低迷，而且我們的訂單在第三季度之前的 12 個月滾動增長了大約 [23%]，但我們確實預計明年會[相同]。但是，我要注意的是，resi 僅占公司總銷售額的 7%，而住宅新建市場將在一定程度上被裝修市場所抵消，而裝修市場約占我們住宅銷售額的 40%。而且我還注意到，我們預計每戶家庭的電力含量會更高，這是我們在過去幾年中所看到的。

Within our Industrial sector, we're expecting it to be a big year for electric vehicles. Increasing government regulations and incentives and the large number of new EV introductions will keep the segment strong, quite frankly, for years to come.

在我們的工業領域，我們預計這將是電動汽車的重要一年。坦率地說，越來越多的政府法規和激勵措施以及大量新電動汽車的推出將使該細分市場在未來幾年保持強勁。

And in commercial aerospace and light motor vehicle markets, both expected to see a cyclical recovery. The need to rebuild inventories will support vehicle markets and the aerospace aftermarket growth and the ramp-up in commercial OEM production will drive aerospace markets higher next year.

在商業航空航天和輕型汽車市場，兩者都有望出現週期性複蘇。重建庫存的需求將支持汽車市場和航空航天售後市場的增長，以及商業 OEM 生產的增加將推動航空航天市場明年走高。

Lastly, we expect commercial vehicle market to be flat but quite frankly at quite healthy levels. So in total, 85% of our markets are expected to see positive organic growth next year. We'll naturally provide more details on our specific organic growth assumptions during our February earnings call, but we did want to share our preliminary thinking and let you know that we expect 2023 to be another good year of growth for the company.

最後，我們預計商用車市場將持平，但坦率地說，處於相當健康的水平。因此，總體而言，我們 85% 的市場預計明年將實現正有機增長。我們自然會在 2 月份的財報電話會議上提供有關我們特定有機增長假設的更多細節，但我們確實想分享我們的初步想法，並讓您知道，我們預計 2023 年將成為公司又一個增長良好的一年。

And lastly, on Page 15, I'd like to close with maybe just a few points here. First, I'd say I'm pleased with our Q2 results, particularly with our strong margins, our earnings and our orders growth. We continue to manage the business well and delivered record profits despite ongoing supply chain challenges and inflationary environment, significant FX and interest headwinds.

最後，在第 15 頁，我想在這裡僅談幾點。首先，我對我們的第二季度業績感到滿意，尤其是我們強勁的利潤率、收益和訂單增長。儘管存在持續的供應鏈挑戰和通貨膨脹環境、重大的外彙和利息逆風，我們仍繼續良好地管理業務並實現創紀錄的利潤。

The transformation of the portfolio has delivered what we promised, a higher-quality company with higher growth, higher margins and better earnings consistency. And for the balance of the year, we remain on track to deliver our commitments, including record operating margins, adjusted and adjusted earnings per share. And we're doing so despite offsetting once again the significant headwinds that I talked about around FX, pension and interest and these headwinds increase in Q4.

投資組合的轉型實現了我們所承諾的，一家具有更高增長、更高利潤率和更好盈利一致性的高質量公司。在今年餘下的時間裡，我們仍有望兌現我們的承諾，包括創紀錄的營業利潤率、調整後和調整後的每股收益。儘管再次抵消了我談到的圍繞外匯、養老金和利息的重大不利因素，並且這些不利因素在第四季度有所增加，但我們仍在這樣做。

As we look into next year, we remain optimistic despite our recession expectations. We do expect a slowdown, and we'll be prepared in the event of a more significant downturn. We know how to flex our costs and deliver attractive decrementals. But as we've said, we have good reasons for optimism.

展望明年，儘管我們預期會出現衰退，但我們仍然保持樂觀。我們確實預計經濟會放緩，我們將為更嚴重的經濟下滑做好準備。我們知道如何降低成本並提供有吸引力的遞減。但正如我們所說，我們有充分的理由保持樂觀。

Second, the growth trends are driving strong momentum in our businesses, and we have a growing pipeline of opportunities. We're going into next year with strong momentum with record backlogs and with an expectation that many of the operational inefficiencies and supply chain disruptions will get materially better next year. So we feel great about the quarter, great about the outlook.

其次，增長趨勢正在推動我們業務的強勁勢頭，我們擁有越來越多的機會。我們將以強勁的勢頭進入明年，積壓記錄創紀錄，並且預計明年許多運營效率低下和供應鏈中斷將得到實質性改善。所以我們對這個季度感覺很好，對前景也很好。

And with that, we'll turn it back to you, Yan, for Q&A.

有了這個，我們將把它轉回給你，Yan，進行問答。

Thanks, Craig. (Operator Instructions) With that, I will turn it over to the operator to give you guys the instructions.

謝謝，克雷格。 （操作員說明）有了這個，我會把它交給操作員給你們指導。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will be from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase。

Maybe can we just start with maybe going through expectations for 2023 incrementals? I know it's a bit early, Craig, to be giving guidance, but you were kind enough to walk us through the end market outlook. And I'm just curious if you think that it's feasible to kind of be at your long-term guidance for incrementals, at least as a starting point. Let's start with that.

也許我們可以從對 2023 年增量的預期開始嗎？我知道現在給出指導還為時過早，克雷格，但你很友好地引導我們了解最終市場前景。我只是好奇你是否認為在你的增量長期指導下是可行的，至少作為一個起點。讓我們從那個開始。

I appreciate the question, Nicole. As you can imagine, we're working through our 2023 profit plans right now and have lots of activity going on around the company to get prepared for that. But I would say though as you think about next year, I think kind of a 30% incremental rate would be kind of the right place to be thinking about running your models at this point. And we'll naturally be in a position by the time we get to the earnings call for Q4 in February to give you a more specific read on that, but we think 30% is probably a good planning number at this juncture.

我很欣賞這個問題，妮可。您可以想像，我們現在正在製定我們的 2023 年利潤計劃，並在公司周圍開展大量活動以為此做好準備。但我想說的是，當你考慮明年時，我認為 30% 的增量率將是考慮在這一點上運行模型的正確位置。到 2 月份第四季度財報電話會議召開時，我們自然會處於一個位置，可以讓您更具體地了解這一點，但我們認為 30% 可能是此時此刻的一個很好的規劃數字。

Got it. And then I guess what surprised me the most this quarter was just the huge acceleration in Electrical America orders. Definitely encouraging to see that even as comps get difficult. So maybe if you could dig a little bit more into what drove the Q-on-Q acceleration.

知道了。然後我想本季度最讓我驚訝的是美國電氣訂單的巨大加速。即使比賽變得困難，看到這一點絕對令人鼓舞。因此，也許您可以深入挖掘一下推動 Q-on-Q 加速的原因。

Yes. As we've talked about and shared in some of the -- commentary, we've had pretty broad-based strength in orders in our Electrical business. I mean in the Americas specifically, data centers were extremely strong, industrial markets, very strong, utility markets we had orders up some 60%. And so it really was broad-based. Even in the resi market on a rolling 12-month basis, even there, we had orders that were still up some 20%.

是的。正如我們在一些評論中所討論和分享的那樣，我們在電氣業務的訂單中擁有相當廣泛的實力。我的意思是特別是在美洲，數據中心非常強大，工業市場非常強大，公用事業市場的訂單增長了約 60%。所以它確實是廣泛的。即使在 12 個月滾動的樹脂市場中，即使在那裡，我們的訂單仍增長了約 20%。

And so it's tough at this point to really call out any particular market in the Americas that I'd say that was weak, but we had really, really strong strength. And I'd say a lot of it really is tied to these big trends we talked about.

因此，在這一點上很難真正指出美洲的任何特定市場，我會說它很弱，但我們擁有非常非常強大的實力。而且我想說很多真的與我們談到的這些大趨勢有關。

Obviously, the utility markets in general are certainly benefiting today from some of these investments in not only energy transition, but grid resiliency, data centers. And I know there's been lots of debate about that market and which direction it's headed. But we're really continuing to see really strong strength in the data center market, even to the point where customers today are looking to place long-term commitments and basically hold the slot in our production plans out into 2024.

顯然，公用事業市場今天肯定會從其中一些投資中受益，不僅是能源轉型，還有電網彈性和數據中心。我知道關於這個市場以及它的發展方向有很多爭論。但我們確實繼續看到數據中心市場的強大實力，甚至到今天的客戶希望做出長期承諾並基本上在我們的生產計劃中佔據一席之地到 2024 年。

So we continue to see very strong strength in our Americas business, once again, tied to these trends that we've been talking about for some time. And we're absolutely pleased to see it showing up in our orders and that will obviously convert to revenue as we have the ability to ship and we resolve some of the supply chain issues that we continue to deal with.

因此，我們繼續看到我們美洲業務的強大實力，再次與我們一直在談論的這些趨勢相關聯。我們非常高興看到它出現在我們的訂單中，這顯然會轉化為收入，因為我們有能力發貨並且我們解決了我們繼續處理的一些供應鏈問題。

Yes. Just to amplify the data centers in the Americas, on a quarter-over-quarter basis, up almost 40% and on a trailing 12 months, over 50%. So we've been hearing noise on that of slowdown. We're not seeing it.

是的。只是為了擴大美洲的數據中心，環比增長近 40%，過去 12 個月增長超過 50%。所以我們一直聽到關於減速的聲音。我們沒有看到它。

Next to the line of Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley.

旁邊是摩根士丹利的 Josh Pokrzywinski。

Craig, on this order surge that you guys have seen, anything that you would attribute to timing around stimulus or lead times, or anything else? Maybe a chunky order in there that we should think about as we look out? Because we are going to continue to see some tough comps here. And I know that with the rolling 12, it's always kind of hard to parse out maybe some of the quarter-to-quarter volatility.

克雷格，在你們看到的訂單激增中，有什麼可以歸因於刺激或交貨時間的時間安排，還是其他什麼？也許那裡有一個我們應該在向外看的時候考慮的大訂單？因為我們將繼續在這裡看到一些艱難的比賽。而且我知道，對於滾動 12，總是很難解析出一些季度到季度的波動性。

Yes. No. And we tried to provide a little bit of color because I know there's this question around whether or not what kind of growth are you seeing in orders in the quarter, which is why we try to share that not just in the rolling 12, but actually in the quarter. We're seeing significant strength. Those numbers that Tom quoted were actually in the quarter, quarter-over-quarter numbers, despite to your point, tougher comps.

是的。不。我們試圖提供一點顏色，因為我知道這個問題是關於你在本季度的訂單中是否看到了什麼樣的增長，這就是為什麼我們試圖不僅僅是在滾動的 12 中分享這一點，但實際上在這個季度。我們看到了巨大的力量。湯姆引用的那些數字實際上是在季度中，季度環比數字，儘管你的觀點是，更嚴格的比較。

I'd say in terms of the order surge question, as I mentioned in my commentary, there have been a number of very large projects announced. And I'd say, as you think about whether it's reshoring or investment in grid infrastructure or its investment in new battery facilities, there are today perhaps different than some of the other cycles that we've been through, a lot more very large industrial projects that tend to be more electrical-intensive as an application that we're certainly seeing in our backlog, and that's certainly helping us.

我想說的是訂單激增問題，正如我在評論中提到的，已經宣布了許多非常大的項目。我想說，當你考慮到它是回流還是對電網基礎設施的投資，還是對新電池設施的投資時，今天可能與我們經歷過的其他一些週期不同，更多的是非常大的工業作為我們在積壓中看到的應用程序，往往是電力密集型的項目，這肯定對我們有幫助。

But that also gives us a lot of confidence as well because these tend to be big multiyear projects that will go on for some time to come. Stimulus, to your question, is not yet. We certainly would anticipate that at some point down the road that we'll start to see a meaningful impact from stimulus. Most of those programs are still probably 6 to 12 months away from really having a meaningful impact on the company. But once again, just another one of these vectors that we think will continue to give us a multiyear growth story that's pretty compelling. And as you know, a lot of those stimulus dollars are going directly into the markets in which we participate. It's about building out the electrical infrastructure. It's about grid resiliency. It's about energy transition. It's investments and efficiency. And specifically to the point where they actually specify upgrading your electrical panel as particular parts of the program that qualify for these investments. And so it's just another one of these things, Josh, that gives us confidence in the long-term outlook of our Electrical business specifically.

但這也給了我們很大的信心，因為這些往往是大型的多年項目，將持續一段時間。對於你的問題，刺激還沒有。我們當然會預計，在未來的某個時候，我們將開始看到刺激措施產生的有意義的影響。這些項目中的大多數可能還需要 6 到 12 個月才能真正對公司產生有意義的影響。但再一次，我們認為這些向量中的另一個將繼續為我們提供一個非常引人注目的多年增長故事。如您所知，許多刺激資金直接流入我們參與的市場。這是關於建設電力基礎設施。這是關於電網彈性的。這是關於能量轉換的。這是投資和效率。特別是他們實際上將升級您的電氣面板指定為符合這些投資資格的計劃的特定部分。所以這只是其中的另一件事，喬希，這讓我們對我們電氣業務的長期前景充滿信心。

And just a little more color on the major projects. In the U.S., manufacturing in the quarter, negotiation's up over 300%, data centers up over almost 170% and the year-to-date numbers are equally strong. So just really, really strong numbers on the major projects.

在主要項目上再增加一點顏色。在美國，本季度的製造業談判增長了 300% 以上，數據中心增長了近 170%，年初至今的數字同樣強勁。因此，主要項目的數字非常非常強勁。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just a quick follow-up on the stimulus piece or, I guess, broader infrastructure spending that you guys are tracking. I know there's some big dollars there. Obviously, not all of that is electrical, but as you touched on, a lot of things sort of get in to Eaton's backyard at some point. How would you think about what those do to your addressable market here as those start to enter? Is that like a 5% increase, a 30% increase to addressable market? Like any sort of ring fencing would be helpful.

知道了。這很有幫助。然後只是對刺激措施的快速跟進，或者，我猜，你們正在追踪的更廣泛的基礎設施支出。我知道那裡有一些大錢。顯然，並非所有這些都是電氣的，但正如你所提到的，很多東西都會在某個時候進入伊頓的後院。當那些開始進入時，你會如何看待這些對你的潛在市場的影響？這就像增加 5%，增加 30% 的目標市場嗎？就像任何類型的圍欄都會有幫助一樣。

Yes. And I'd say maybe a little bit early for us to be able to put a handle on how it's going to impact specifically the relative opportunity or the relative growth. As you know, they are a very big billion-dollar programs directly targeted at electrical infrastructure. But I would just say that at this point, Josh, we would hope to, at some point down the road, give you a better indicator of that. But it's just quite frankly, today, a little bit too early to see how this is going to all play out. But it's all going to be good. I mean it's all going to be things that are going to help us continue to accelerate our growth, not just in the next 12 months but quite frankly, these stimulus programs will help us accelerate growth over the next 3 to 4 years.

是的。我想說的是，我們能夠處理它如何具體影響相對機會或相對增長可能有點早。如您所知，它們是直接針對電力基礎設施的數十億美元的大型項目。但我只想說，在這一點上，喬希，我們希望在未來的某個時候給你一個更好的指標。但坦率地說，今天，看這一切將如何發展還為時過早。但這一切都會好起來的。我的意思是，這一切都將有助於我們繼續加速增長，不僅在未來 12 個月內，而且坦率地說，這些刺激計劃將幫助我們在未來 3 到 4 年內加速增長。

Next, we'll go to Andrew Obin with Bank of America.

接下來，我們將與美國銀行一起前往安德魯·奧賓。

Just a question. Can you just give us more color on data centers? I know you're very positive, but just maybe talk about system protocols within the data center market...

就一個問題。您能給我們更多關於數據中心的信息嗎？我知道你很積極，但也許只是談談數據中心市場中的系統協議......

Andrew, we're getting some background noise. It's very hard to hear you.

安德魯，我們得到了一些背景噪音。很難聽到你的聲音。

We heard data centers, Andrew, but we were...

我們聽說過數據中心，安德魯，但我們...

Hold on give me one second. Let me try this. Is this better?

等一下，給我一秒鐘。讓我試試這個。這是否更好？

Much better.

好多了。

Yes. So just on data centers, if we could just focus on different geographies and different verticals within the data center market is just -- there's a lot of noise regarding this market. What are you guys seeing? I know you're bullish, but just as I said, more color by geography and vertical.

是的。因此，僅就數據中心而言，如果我們可以專注於數據中心市場中的不同地域和不同垂直領域，那麼這個市場就會有很多噪音。你們在看什麼？我知道你看漲，但正如我所說，地理和垂直顏色更多。

Yes. And I appreciate the question, Andrew. We certainly -- if you think about geographically, we're clearly seeing the strongest growth in the Americas market. Very strong growth in the Americas market, very strong growth in hyperscale, but also in colo and on-prem. Maybe if you know today, I mean some -- I guess some 40% of the market would be hyperscale. So this really is broad-based strength that we're seeing in the data center market, certainly in the Americas.

是的。我很欣賞這個問題，安德魯。我們當然——如果你從地理上考慮，我們顯然看到了美洲市場最強勁的增長。美洲市場的增長非常強勁，超大規模的增長非常強勁，而且在 colo 和 on-prem 也是如此。也許如果你今天知道，我的意思是一些——我猜大約 40% 的市場將是超大規模的。因此，這確實是我們在數據中心市場（尤其是美洲）看到的基礎廣泛的優勢。

We're seeing good growth, but not a strong growth in Europe and in Asia, 2 markets that are also growing. Once again, the IT channel to really distinguish that from the broader data center market. We have seen that tend to be a little shorter cycle, and we have seen a little relative slower growth, still good growth, but relatively slower growth in the IT channel, relatively slower growth in single phase in markets like Europe and Asia. But once again, we're still seeing growth in those markets.

我們看到了良好的增長，但歐洲和亞洲的增長並不強勁，這兩個市場也在增長。再次，IT 渠道真正將其與更廣泛的數據中心市場區分開來。我們看到這個週期往往會更短一些，我們看到增長相對較慢，增長仍然不錯，但 IT 渠道的增長相對較慢，歐洲和亞洲等市場的單階段增長相對較慢。但再一次，我們仍然看到這些市場的增長。

Great. And just on capital allocation, as interest rates have gone up, you are clearly cash generative. You're more of a strategic buyer. How has the market landscape changed from your perspective? And does it make more likely or less likely to see a deal from Eaton in the next 12 to 18 months?

偉大的。就資本配置而言，隨著利率的上升，你顯然可以產生現金。你更像是一個戰略買家。從您的角度來看，市場格局發生了怎樣的變化？在接下來的 12 到 18 個月內，與伊頓達成交易的可能性更大還是更小？

I would say that what's going on in the interest rate environment needs to, at some point, translate into seller expectations on valuation. And I'd say there's always, as you know, a fairly significant lag between the realities of the market changing and company's expectations of what their value is.

我想說，利率環境中發生的事情需要在某個時候轉化為賣方對估值的預期。我想說的是，正如你所知，市場變化的現實與公司對其價值的期望之間總是存在相當大的滯後。

And so I'd say, in general, in these kinds of environments, you would expect asset valuations to come in a little bit. And that would therefore increase the likelihood of us doing transactions. But I would say today, it's early, and we really have not seen any material change at this point in valuations or expectations. But we continue to be out on the hunt looking for opportunities and still think that's the right priority for the company.

所以我想說，一般來說，在這種環境下，你會期望資產估值會出現一點點。因此，這將增加我們進行交易的可能性。但我今天要說，現在還為時過早，我們目前確實沒有看到估值或預期有任何重大變化。但我們仍在尋找機會，並且仍然認為這對公司來說是正確的優先事項。

But having said that, as we've said in the past, we will not overreach. We don't intend to overpay. We've been a very disciplined buyer, and we'll continue to be a very disciplined buyer. And in the event that asset valuations don't come in line with our expectations, we'll certainly use it as an opportunity to buy back our stock.

但話雖如此，正如我們過去所說，我們不會過度擴張。我們不打算多付錢。我們一直是一個非常自律的買家，我們將繼續成為一個非常自律的買家。如果資產估值不符合我們的預期，我們肯定會利用它作為回購股票的機會。

And next, we'll go to Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

接下來，我們將與 Wolfe Research 一起前往 Nigel Coe。

Okay. So the 2023 end market outlook, it looks like if you had to pick a number, you'd say 5% to 6% type lender growth rates. The one, I guess I'm surprised by is the C&I market where you're looking for modest growth. It seems like the leasing [kits] there are really healthy. We got some stimulus money coming through.

好的。因此，對於 2023 年末的市場前景，看起來如果你必須選擇一個數字，你會說 5% 到 6% 類型的貸方增長率。一個，我想我感到驚訝的是你正在尋找適度增長的 C&I 市場。看起來那裡的租賃 [套件] 真的很健康。我們得到了一些刺激資金。

So just wondering, what's driving that view? Is it some collateral damage from residential? Is it Europe, Asia Pacific? Any color there would be great.

所以只是想知道，是什麼推動了這種觀點？是住宅造成的附帶損害嗎？是歐洲還是亞太？任何顏色都會很棒。

We appreciate it. We tried to kind of unpack that a little bit in my outbound commentary, but we're still seeing good growth in the C&I market. Orders on a rolling 12-month basis, by the way, globally, were up 23% in the quarter. They were actually up 27%. And so actually, a very strong quarter with orders actually accelerating in the quarter.

我們很感激。我們試圖在我的對外評論中稍微解釋一下，但我們仍然看到 C&I 市場的良好增長。順便說一下，全球範圍內連續 12 個月的訂單在本季度增長了 23%。他們實際上上漲了27%。實際上，這是一個非常強勁的季度，該季度的訂單實際上在加速。

And I'd say on the commercial side, we're seeing growth, but we're seeing the biggest growth in what we call institutional and government. And as I noted in my commentary, that's really where you'd expect to see some of the early indications of some of the government dollars and government spending in and around institutional and government. But that market continues to do extremely well. And we really have not really seen any signs particularly in that market, of a letup.

我想說的是，在商業方面，我們看到了增長，但我們看到了我們所謂的機構和政府方面的最大增長。正如我在評論中指出的那樣，這確實是您希望看到一些政府資金和政府在機構和政府內部及周圍支出的一些早期跡象。但這個市場繼續表現得非常好。而且我們真的沒有真正看到任何跡象，特別是在那個市場上，放鬆的跡象。

I think more generally speaking, the Americas as a region tends to be the strongest region in the world, really across most of these end markets. But we had a very strong quarter in Europe as well in the C&I market.

我認為更一般地說，美洲作為一個地區往往是世界上最強大的地區，實際上涵蓋了大多數這些終端市場。但我們在歐洲以及 C&I 市場的季度表現非常強勁。

And in Asia also. Asia was very strong in commercial and institution. Actually, all the end markets grew quite strong on a quarter-over-quarter and the trailing 12 months. I mean Europe was particularly strong in commercial as well as government on a trailing 12 month as well as on a quarter-over-quarter.

在亞洲也是如此。亞洲在商業和製度方面非常強大。實際上，所有終端市場在環比和過去 12 個月中都增長得相當強勁。我的意思是歐洲在過去的 12 個月和季度環比中在商業和政府方面都特別強勁。

I mean, so at some point, I mean, as somebody mentioned earlier, we're going to be anniversary-ing some really strong growth numbers, and we do expect these growth numbers to slow and moderate some place in terms of the order intake.

我的意思是，所以在某個時候，我的意思是，正如前面有人提到的，我們將迎來一些非常強勁的增長數字，我們確實預計這些增長數字在訂單接收方面會有所放緩和緩和.

But also keep in mind, we're sitting on record backlogs that are up, in some cases, more than 100%. And so even if you have a little bit of a slowdown in some of these end markets, which you'll likely see some of that, our backlogs today are giving us visibility into almost 60% of next year's demand. And that number is about 2x what we normally see.

但也請記住，我們正坐在創紀錄的積壓上，在某些情況下，超過 100%。因此，即使您在其中一些終端市場有一點放緩（您可能會看到其中的一些），我們今天的積壓訂單也讓我們能夠了解明年近 60% 的需求。這個數字大約是我們通常看到的 2 倍。

Right. Yes, that's it. I mean it all sounds great. Just wondering what changed in '23. But my follow-on question is on free cash flow. We've got a pretty big fourth quarter lined up in the plan. Growth rates remained really strong. So just wondering kind of the confidence and what needs to happen to drive that free cash flow.

正確的。對，就是那樣。我的意思是這一切聽起來都很棒。只是想知道 23 年發生了什麼變化。但我的後續問題是關於自由現金流。我們的計劃中有一個相當大的第四季度。增長率仍然非常強勁。所以只是想知道那種信心以及需要發生什麼來推動自由現金流。

Yes. No, I appreciate the question. We tried to touch on it in the prepared remarks. We had a very strong Q3 cash conversion cycle. We improved by 7 days on hand, went up 4 days payables, up another 2 days. So we felt really good about that. I think what we want to get in terms of the prepared remarks is to let you know we're going to prioritize taking care of the customer and protecting the orders and organic growth. Recognizing that we've got work to do to hit our free cash flow objective. No question about it.

是的。不，我很欣賞這個問題。我們試圖在準備好的評論中觸及它。我們有一個非常強勁的第三季度現金轉換週期。我們在手頭上提高了 7 天，應付賬款增加了 4 天，又增加了 2 天。所以我們對此感覺非常好。我認為就準備好的評論而言，我們希望得到的是讓您知道我們將優先考慮照顧客戶並保護訂單和有機增長。認識到我們有工作要做以實現我們的自由現金流目標。毫無疑問。

Next, we'll go to Scott Davis with Melius Research.

接下來，我們將與 Melius Research 一起前往 Scott Davis。

I don't think I've heard a price -- a specific price number. And not asking for anything particularly precise, it can be a range. But of that 15% core was -- it's been running typically kind of a little bit more than half in price. Is that about the same this quarter?

我想我沒有聽說過價格——一個具體的價格數字。並且不要求任何特別精確的東西，它可以是一個範圍。但是在這 15% 的核心中——它的運行價格通常略高於一半。這個季度也差不多嗎？

Yes, Scott. As you know, we said in prior calls is that we haven't given out specifically between price and volume largely because there's such a huge variation depending upon the markets, the customers, the various commodities that we're selling. And so we haven't given out a number. But I would say that within that 15% growth, we had healthy growth in both volume and price.

是的，斯科特。如您所知，我們在之前的電話會議中說過，我們沒有具體給出價格和數量之間的差異，主要是因為市場、客戶和我們銷售的各種商品的差異如此之大。所以我們沒有給出一個數字。但我想說的是，在這 15% 的增長中，我們在數量和價格上都有健康的增長。

And throughout the year, we've seen strong growth in volume as well.

全年，我們也看到了銷量的強勁增長。

Do you guys have a sense of -- I mean your customers -- are they trying to build some inventory ahead of anticipated demand in '23? Are they trying to get ahead of some price increases? What is the incentive? Or are they just paranoid they're not going to be able to get product? I'm trying to just get my arms around the incentive to really order above actual end market growth because it's certainly your growth rates are above global GDP levels by quite some...

你們是否有一種感覺——我的意思是你的客戶——他們是否試圖在 23 年的預期需求之前建立一些庫存？他們是否試圖在價格上漲之前搶先一步？什麼是激勵？還是他們只是偏執於無法獲得產品？我正試圖抓住激勵因素，讓他們真正訂購高於實際終端市場增長，因為你的增長率肯定比全球 GDP 水平高出相當多的...

Yes. First of all, I'd say our end markets are doing very well. And so a lot of what we're seeing today is, in fact, a reflection of just heightened industrial activity, heightened investments in manufacturing. We talked about these big investments in things like semiconductors, new plants for building EV factories and new factories for building batteries and investments in grid hardening.

是的。首先，我想說我們的終端市場做得很好。事實上，我們今天看到的很多情況都反映了工業活動的增加，製造業投資的增加。我們談到了對半導體、建造電動汽車工廠的新工廠和建造電池的新工廠以及對電網加固的投資等方面的巨額投資。

And so in many cases, the markets that we're participating in are really strong markets right now. Having said that, I would say that our customers would like to build some more inventory, and that's -- and today, they're not. And we're not seeing any evidence at this point at all more broadly of overstocking in the distribution channel.

所以在很多情況下，我們現在參與的市場是非常強大的市場。話雖如此，我想說我們的客戶想要建立更多的庫存，那是 - 而今天，他們不是。在這一點上，我們根本沒有看到任何更廣泛的分銷渠道庫存過剩的證據。

There is some nervousness in the marketplace today around I need to get a place in line. And so as we mentioned before, we're probably getting orders a little bit earlier in the process than we would normally get an order. So we're getting more lead time. But in general, and you can see it in some of the distributor data as well, our distributors, their sales out are very strong if you look at some of the big electrical distributors in the numbers that they've reported.

今天市場上有些緊張，我需要排隊。因此，正如我們之前提到的，我們在此過程中收到訂單的時間可能比我們通常收到的訂單要早一些。所以我們得到了更多的交貨時間。但總的來說，您也可以在一些分銷商數據中看到，如果您查看一些大型電氣分銷商報告的數字，我們的分銷商，他們的銷售非常強勁。

And we'll go to Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

我們將和巴克萊一起去朱利安米切爾。

I think just firstly, I wanted to focus on the fourth quarter for a second. So it looks like you're assuming kind of flattish sales sequentially and margins down maybe 50 bps or so. It seems like that's very concentrated in the aerospace division, where there's kind of a big margin reversal versus what you saw in the third quarter. Maybe just clarify that, please, on ARO and if there's anything else kind of going on sequentially on margins in the segments.

我認為首先，我想先專注於第四節。因此，看起來您假設銷售順序持平，利潤率可能下降 50 個基點左右。似乎這非常集中在航空航天部門，與您在第三季度看到的情況相比，該部門的利潤率出現了很大的逆轉。也許只是澄清一下，請在 ARO 上以及是否在細分市場的利潤率上依次發生其他任何事情。

Yes. I mean as you know, Joe, we had a really strong quarter in Aerospace in Q3. And as you know from this business, so much of how you perform in Aerospace is really a function of the mix of your aftermarket versus OE sales. And so in any given quarter, you can have a very different mix that certainly will push your margins around one way or another, but the margin levels as is implied are still very strong in aerospace and very much in line with our guidance for the year. But in any given quarter, you can, in fact, see a little bit of difference, depending upon how much OEM business you're shipping. And with the ramp in OEMs and some of our major customers, you probably -- embedded in that numbers are probably more OEM shipments than we would typically see or certainly we saw as a mix or as a percentage in Q3.

是的。我的意思是，正如你所知，喬，我們在第三季度的航空航天領域表現非常強勁。正如您從這項業務中所知道的那樣，您在航空航天領域的表現很大程度上取決於您的售後市場與 OE 銷售的組合。因此，在任何給定的季度，您都可以擁有非常不同的組合，這肯定會以某種方式推動您的利潤率，但所暗示的利潤率水平在航空航天領域仍然非常強勁，並且非常符合我們今年的指導.但實際上，在任何給定的季度，您都可以看到一些差異，具體取決於您交付的 OEM 業務量。隨著原始設備製造商和我們的一些主要客戶的增加，您可能 - 嵌入在這個數字中的原始設備製造商出貨量可能比我們通常看到的更多，或者肯定我們在第三季度看到的混合或百分比。

But by and large, the business is doing well. Backlog is growing. Profitability is doing well. Team is executing well. And so we have no concerns about aerospace. We think the business is in great shape.

但總的來說，這項業務做得很好。積壓正在增長。盈利能力表現良好。團隊執行良好。所以我們對航空航天沒有任何擔憂。我們認為業務狀況良好。

And then just my follow-up, I suppose, would be around kind of volume growth. As you said, it's been healthy in the third quarter. So assuming it's up, let's say, mid-single digit. As you think about the backlog from here as supply constraints ease, do you think we see an incremental kind of acceleration in backlog conversion into revenues? And so your volume growth could accelerate in the next few quarters even as sales slow down. Maybe just help us understand kind of that work through of orders into revenue volumes as supply chains are moving around?

然後，我想，我的後續行動將圍繞著銷量增長。正如你所說，它在第三季度一直很健康。所以假設它上升了，比方說，中個位數。當您考慮從這裡開始的積壓供應限制緩解時，您認為我們是否看到積壓轉化為收入的加速增長？因此，即使銷售放緩，您的銷量增長也可能在接下來的幾個季度加速。也許只是幫助我們了解隨著供應鏈的移動而將訂單轉化為收入的那種工作？

I appreciate the question, and it's what we've been chasing really doing it for at least the last 12 months where we -- quite frankly, we need a little bit of a slowdown, quite frankly, in orders just to catch our breath and try to deal with some of these backlogs that we're building in the business.

我很欣賞這個問題，這就是我們至少在過去 12 個月裡一直在追求的真正目標，我們——坦率地說，坦率地說，我們需要放慢一點速度，坦率地說，為了讓我們喘口氣和嘗試處理我們在業務中建立的一些積壓工作。

And so I'd say that, yes, it's absolutely possible that you can have a scenario where just working off the backlog in the past dues gives you the ability to continue to grow your business despite what could be a bit of a slowdown in the marketplace. So that's entirely possible. And quite frankly, we need the ability to take a little bit of a breather to execute on some of this backlog.

所以我會說，是的，您絕對有可能遇到這樣一種情況，即只要解決過去的欠款積壓工作，您就有能力繼續發展您的業務，儘管在市場。所以這是完全可能的。坦率地說，我們需要能夠稍微喘口氣來執行這些積壓的一些工作。

But to date, as you saw in our results, I mean the orders keep coming, and they keep coming fairly broadly in the marketplace. And we think the secular growth trends that we're playing into are going to go on for some time. And so what we're responding to that is we're investing. We're investing in capacity and capability, and doing things in our supply chain to ensure that we're in a position to deal with these higher levels of economic activity, higher growth and support what we think is going to be higher growth for these businesses for some time to come.

但迄今為止，正如您在我們的結果中看到的那樣，我的意思是訂單不斷湧現，並且它們在市場上的出現相當廣泛。而且我們認為我們正在參與的長期增長趨勢將持續一段時間。所以我們對此的回應是我們正在投資。我們正在對產能和能力進行投資，並在我們的供應鏈中做一些事情，以確保我們能夠應對這些更高水平的經濟活動、更高的增長，並支持我們認為這些將是更高的增長未來一段時間的業務。

Next, we'll go to Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

接下來，我們將與高盛一起前往喬·里奇。

Yes. So really, I guess, maybe 2 clarification questions, follow-ups from what others have already asked. The first one, just going back to M&A portfolio. You guys have done a lot, Craig. I'm just curious, what kind of leverage target would you be willing to go to in this environment? Clearly, like your backlog is in really good shape. But I know there's a lot of concern around the uncertainty for 2023 and concern around higher leverage levels across the broader multis. And so I'm just curious for the right deal, what would be your expectation on leverage?

是的。所以真的，我想，也許是 2 個澄清問題，其他人已經問過的後續問題。第一個，回到併購組合。你們已經做了很多，克雷格。我只是好奇，在這種環境下，你願意達到什麼樣的槓桿目標？顯然，就像您的積壓工作狀態非常好。但我知道，人們對 2023 年的不確定性以及對更廣泛的多重金融機構更高槓桿水平的擔憂有很多擔憂。所以我只是對合適的交易感到好奇，你對槓桿的期望是什麼？

I mean, and as you know, Joe, you've been around the company for some years. We have, in the past, levered up for the right strategic deal. And as an organization, as a company, we tend to have very good cash generation. And so for us, I would say that for the right deal, we'd be perfectly willing to lever up and go to the same levels that we've been at historically.

我的意思是，正如你所知，喬，你已經在公司工作了幾年。過去，我們已經為正確的戰略交易做好了準備。作為一個組織，作為一家公司，我們往往會產生非常好的現金。所以對我們來說，我想說，對於正確的交易，我們完全願意提高槓桿並達到我們歷史上的水平。

I will tell you that those deals are not right in front of us today. And so I just -- I don't want to be -- I don't want to set an expectation around some near-term transaction that's going to require that we lever up, which are likely to see from us are deals that are very much consistent with what we've done recently in terms of kind of bite-sized transactions that we can fund largely out of cash without the need to lever up and do larger transactions. But that's just a reality of the marketplace and the type of deals that we'll likely do. But at the same time, if we could find a bigger, more strategic one, we certainly would be willing to lever up in order to do it.

我會告訴你，這些交易今天不在我們面前。所以我只是——我不想成為——我不想對一些需要我們提高槓桿率的近期交易設定期望，從我們那裡可能會看到這些交易是與我們最近在小額交易方面所做的非常一致，我們可以在很大程度上用現金資助，而無需槓桿化並進行更大的交易。但這只是市場的現實和我們可能會做的交易類型。但與此同時，如果我們能找到一個更大、更具戰略性的公司，我們當然願意為了做到這一點而增加槓桿。

Yes. And just to amplify that a little bit. I mean for -- to baseline everybody, we're at 2.1x net leverage. So we've got a -- and very strong credit rating. So we've got a large capacity to go up, to Craig's point. And especially with the supply chain constraints starting to mitigate, our cash generation will get even better going forward. So we see a lot of flexibility.

是的。只是為了放大一點。我的意思是——以每個人為基準，我們的淨槓桿率為 2.1 倍。所以我們有一個非常強大的信用評級。因此，就克雷格而言，我們有很大的上升空間。尤其是隨著供應鏈限制開始緩解，我們的現金生成將變得更好。所以我們看到了很大的靈活性。

Got it. That's helpful. And maybe just my follow-on question. I know Julian was trying to get at this as well, so maybe I'll focus my comments on the Electrical Americas business. It's hard to like get our head around like your backlog doubling year-over-year at a time when you're growing, call it, mid-teens this year in this business. It seems to suggest that for 2023, you've kind of set yourself up for another year of double-digit organic growth. And so just maybe just help us kind of contextualize that or frame it just for the -- just for the Electrical Americas business.

知道了。這很有幫助。也許只是我的後續問題。我知道朱利安也試圖解決這個問題，所以也許我會把我的評論集中在美國電氣業務上。很難讓我們的頭腦像你的積壓工作同比翻倍，而你正在成長，稱之為，今年在這個行業的十幾歲。這似乎表明，對於 2023 年，您已經為又一年實現兩位數的有機增長做好了準備。因此，也許只是幫助我們將其語境化，或者僅將其框架化為-僅用於美國電氣業務。

Yes. I mean I think your math is not wrong, necessarily, right? That certainly given the strong negotiations, one, as you heard Tom talk about, even our negotiations largely before we get an order, negotiations continue to be very strong into these secular trends that we're dealing with. Orders are strong. The backlog is strong. And so we would expect that to translate to revenue growth next year, even in the event of a slowdown. We're not in a position to give you a number for next year. We'll do that as we mentioned in February. But your math is not terribly wrong. It says we should expect good growth in the Americas next year even with a little bit of a market slowdown. And that's kind of what we tried to do by providing some indications of the various end markets that we're in and how those end markets are likely to perform in 2023.

是的。我的意思是我認為你的數學沒有錯，不一定，對吧？這當然是考慮到強有力的談判，一個，正如你聽到湯姆所說的那樣，即使我們的談判主要是在我們獲得訂單之前，對於我們正在處理的這些長期趨勢，談判仍然非常激烈。訂單強勁。積壓很強。因此，我們預計即使在經濟放緩的情況下，這也將轉化為明年的收入增長。我們無法為您提供明年的數字。正如我們在二月份提到的那樣，我們將這樣做。但你的數學並沒有大錯特錯。它說我們應該期待明年美洲的良好增長，即使市場略有放緩。這就是我們試圖通過提供一些關於我們所處的各種終端市場以及這些終端市場在 2023 年可能表現如何的跡象來做的事情。

I think the end market forecast, coupled with the secular trends chart at the beginning of the presentation, these secular trends are real. And we are seeing order flow and backlog consistent with that. And I think we're primed for a good run here.

我認為終端市場預測，再加上演示開始時的長期趨勢圖，這些長期趨勢是真實的。我們看到訂單流和積壓與此一致。我認為我們已經準備好在這裡取得好成績。

The big challenge really to date has been we just don't have the capacity. Our suppliers don't have the capacity to deal with this growth that we're seeing. I mean, obviously, our growth in the quarter in Q4 would be much higher if we had more capacity in place to deal with this demand. And that's what we're addressing right now, not only in our own facilities, but also in the supply chain to make sure we are in a position to convert on these great growth opportunities.

迄今為止，真正的巨大挑戰是我們沒有能力。我們的供應商沒有能力應對我們所看到的這種增長。我的意思是，顯然，如果我們有更多的能力來應對這種需求，我們在第四季度的增長將會更高。這就是我們現在正在解決的問題，不僅在我們自己的設施中，而且在供應鏈中，以確保我們能夠轉換這些巨大的增長機會。

Next, we'll go to John Walsh with Credit Suisse.

接下來，我們將與瑞士信貸一起去約翰沃爾什。

So I apologize. I'm going to try to come at this volume question again just because I think it's really important. Are you seeing accelerating -- or have you seen accelerating volume year-over-year growth as we've gone through 2022?

所以我道歉。我將嘗試再次提出這個體積問題，因為我認為它非常重要。在我們經歷 2022 年的過程中，您是否看到加速增長——或者您是否看到銷量同比增長加速？

yes. In a word, yes. Yes. Each quarter, John...

是的。一句話，是的。是的。每個季度，約翰...

That's great. That's what I wanted to hear. And I just wanted to confirm that. And then you talked about top line and incrementals. We've had a couple of companies remind us about pension sensitivity, asset returns, tax already this season. I know it's early, but just anything to call out below the line as we think about next year?

那太棒了。這就是我想听到的。我只是想確認一下。然後你談到了頂線和增量。我們已經有幾家公司在本季度提醒我們養老金敏感性、資產回報和稅收。我知道現在還為時過早，但是當我們考慮明年時，有什麼可以在底線下喊出來的嗎？

Yes. I mean that's a great question, John. I mean there's a lot of moving parts. Let's take pension first. We've got asset returns, discount rate, shape of the yield curve, just to name a few. And we're going through our plan for next year. I wouldn't be surprised if we had a headwind associated with that. We're trying to assess how big that headwind is right now.

是的。我的意思是這是一個很好的問題，約翰。我的意思是有很多活動部件。先拿養老金吧。我們有資產回報率、貼現率、收益率曲線的形狀，僅舉幾例。我們正在製定明年的計劃。如果我們有與之相關的逆風，我不會感到驚訝。我們正試圖評估目前的逆風有多大。

As it relates to interest expense, it's the same type of dynamic. You've got swap interest income. You've got FX income. You've got CP balances and increasing short-term rates. We've managed that very effectively this year, and on a year-to-date basis, will look good. As we indicated in our prepared remarks, we'll see more of a headwind in Q4. And we're working through what's going to happen in 2023.

由於它與利息費用有關，它是同一類型的動態。你有掉期利息收入。你有外匯收入。你有 CP 餘額和增加的短期利率。今年我們已經非常有效地管理了這一點，並且從年初至今的基礎上，看起來會很好。正如我們在準備好的評論中指出的那樣，我們將在第四季度看到更多的逆風。我們正在努力解決 2023 年將要發生的事情。

I guess what I would stay focused on is we had all those headwinds this year. And we were able to deliver what we said we were going to do. And we'll be focused on doing that next year as well.

我想我會繼續關注的是我們今年遇到了所有這些不利因素。我們能夠兌現我們所說的我們將要做的事情。我們明年也將專注於這樣做。

And if I may just add, and offsetting some of these headwinds that will be real, and Tom articulated, is that this year, we have just an enormous number of operational inefficiencies that we've had to offset as well. And we do expect, as I mentioned in my outbound commentary, that many of these operational inefficiencies, many of which are driven by supply chain constraints, we expect those to get better next year. And so we think we're going to have an offset to a number of these because our facilities will run more effectively and more efficiently in 2023 than they have in 2022.

如果我可以補充一點，並抵消其中一些將是真實的逆風，湯姆明確表示，今年，我們只有大量的運營效率低下，我們也必須抵消這些不利因素。正如我在對外評論中提到的那樣，我們確實預計，其中許多運營效率低下，其中許多是由供應鏈限制驅動的，我們預計明年這些情況會變得更好。因此，我們認為我們將抵消其中的一些，因為我們的設施在 2023 年將比 2022 年更有效和更有效率地運行。

And next, we'll go to Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.

接下來，我們將與 RBC Capital Markets 一起前往 Deane Dray。

One of the inefficiencies in the supply chain that's been nagging everyone has been a semiconductor and electric electronic component situation. You guys thought it might get worse in the second half. So how has it been playing out?

一直困擾著每個人的供應鏈效率低下的問題之一是半導體和電氣電子元件的情況。你們認為下半場可能會變得更糟。那麼它的表現如何呢？

No. What I'd say is -- and I think what we said as a part of our Q2 earnings call, is we didn't expect it to get better. In fact, we didn't expect it to get better until sometime probably in the second half of 2023. And I'd say it largely played out that way, that we've seen -- we saw some improvements in metal-based commodities, copper, steel, aluminum. We saw improvements, obviously, in resins. Logistics got better.

不，我要說的是——我認為我們在第二季度財報電話會議中所說的，是我們沒想到它會變得更好。事實上，我們預計直到 2023 年下半年的某個時候才會好轉。而且我想說它在很大程度上是這樣發展的，我們已經看到了——我們看到了金屬類商品的一些改進、銅、鋼、鋁。顯然，我們看到了樹脂的改進。物流變好了。

But semiconductors and almost anything electronic related continues to be a challenge. And that's a challenge we dealt with in Q3 and a challenge that we think we're going to end up dealing with probably for another almost 12 months or so before we probably see any material improvement there. So semiconductors continue to be a challenge. We're working through it, but we are seeing improvements in other commodities.

但半導體和幾乎任何與電子相關的東西仍然是一個挑戰。這是我們在第三季度處理的挑戰，也是我們認為最終可能還要再處理近 12 個月左右的挑戰，然後我們可能會在那裡看到任何實質性的改善。因此，半導體仍然是一個挑戰。我們正在努力解決它，但我們看到其他商品有所改善。

That's good to hear. And then just a follow-up, and we've touched on this before a bit in the answers to Joe's question. And Craig, you've been around the company a long time. So you'll appreciate the spirit of this question. Is in prior cycles, you would see that the company was so much more exposed to non-res and the non-res cycle. And we'd be asking you about starts and permits and value in place and so forth.

聽起來還不錯。然後只是跟進，我們之前在回答喬的問題時已經談到了這一點。還有克雷格，你已經在公司工作了很長時間。所以你會欣賞這個問題的精神。在之前的周期中，您會看到公司更容易受到非資源和非資源週期的影響。我們會問你關於開始、許可和價值等等的問題。

But the portfolio today and the end markets, whether it's in secular drivers, data center electrification, all of this has served to minimize the non-res cycle. Just I want to make sure that's correct. And should help elongate this cycle in terms of the demand given your backlog and so forth.

但是今天的投資組合和終端市場，無論是長期驅動，數據中心電氣化，所有這些都有助於最大限度地減少非資源循環。只是我想確保這是正確的。並且應該有助於根據您的積壓等需求延長這個週期。

So part of this is the question of how you're positioned better in a downturn and less dependent on non-res. And just any color around that would be helpful.

因此，部分原因在於您如何在經濟低迷時期更好地定位並減少對非資源的依賴。周圍的任何顏色都會有所幫助。

What I'd say, maybe just to clarify a couple of points, Deane. First of all, we agree with your conclusion, by the way. And the conclusion is the portfolio moves that we've made have positioned the company to be less cyclical, to be more long cycle, no cycle. And that is absolutely true. And therefore, we're absolutely convinced that the company will perform very differently in the future in the event of an economic downturn.

我要說的，也許只是為了澄清幾點，迪恩。首先，順便說一下，我們同意你的結論。結論是我們所做的投資組合舉措使公司的周期性更小，週期更長，沒有周期。這是絕對正確的。因此，我們絕對相信，在經濟低迷的情況下，該公司未來的表現將截然不同。

And as I mentioned in my commentary, we think there'll be a mild one next year. And yet our company and our markets, 85% of them will continue to see strong growth. But just the term non-res means everything other than residential. And so today, for us, as we said, 7% of the company is residential. So non-res or 10% of electrical is residential. So 90% of everything that we do in data centers, in utility, in industrial markets, the term non-res really covers a lot of these other end markets that are certainly doing extremely well right now.

正如我在評論中提到的那樣，我們認為明年會有一個溫和的。然而，我們的公司和我們的市場，其中 85% 將繼續強勁增長。但是，非資源一詞僅指住宅以外的所有事物。所以今天，對我們來說，正如我們所說，公司的 7% 是住宅。因此，非資源或 10% 的電力是住宅。因此，我們在數據中心、公用事業和工業市場中所做的 90% 的事情中，非資源一詞確實涵蓋了許多其他終端市場，這些終端市場目前確實做得非常好。

And so we've tried to get more exposure to the secular growth trends tied to really growing end markets. And that's what we've really done in terms of the portfolio moves that we've done. But your conclusion is absolutely correct, that the company will be much less cyclical on a go-forward basis. And we would expect the company to grow even in the face of a recession.

因此，我們試圖更多地了解與真正增長的終端市場相關的長期增長趨勢。就我們所做的投資組合變動而言，這就是我們真正所做的。但是您的結論是絕對正確的，即公司在前進的基礎上的周期性將大大降低。我們預計該公司即使在經濟衰退的情況下也會增長。

Yes. And just again, I mean, we've talked about this, but just to put a couple of more numbers on this, just to amplify what Craig was saying. I mean utilities orders on a year-over-year basis growing about 50%. On a trailing 12-month basis, about 40%. Data centers year-over-year about 25% and on trailing 12 months, about 35%. So these are big non-res numbers, to use your words, Deane.

是的。再說一次，我的意思是，我們已經討論過這個問題，但只是為了在這個問題上加上幾個數字，只是為了放大克雷格所說的話。我的意思是公用事業訂單同比增長約 50%。在過去 12 個月的基礎上，約為 40%。數據中心同比增長約 25%，過去 12 個月約為 35%。所以這些都是很大的非分辨率數字，用你的話來說，迪恩。

Next, we'll go to the line of Chris Snyder with UBS.

接下來，我們將介紹瑞銀的克里斯·斯奈德。

I wanted to follow up on some of the prior commentary around 2023 incrementals in that 30% range. And I know that matches kind of the targeted or more normalized levels to get to the 2025 targets. But I guess the question was it feels like the price cost is still in the company's favor. You guys mentioned earlier that productivity efficiency would return next year. So that has a margin tailwind as well. Are there any kind of offsets there that kind of push the incremental back just down to that 30% or so?

我想跟進之前關於 2023 年 30% 範圍內增量的一些評論。而且我知道這與達到 2025 年目標的目標或更標準化的水平相匹配。但我想問題是感覺價格成本仍然對公司有利。你們之前提到生產力效率將在明年恢復。所以這也有邊際順風。是否有任何類型的補償可以將增量推回 30% 左右？

I appreciate the question. And I'd say that the other side of that equation is the investments that we're making inside of the businesses. And as we talk about some of these big growth trends that we're facing into, and quite frankly, we have a need to invest. And so we -- and we would intend to do that to prioritize growth and putting more feet on the street and investing in technology and the like to ensure that we're in a great position to take advantage of this growth that we see there.

我很欣賞這個問題。我想說，等式的另一面是我們在企業內部進行的投資。當我們談論我們面臨的一些大的增長趨勢時，坦率地說，我們需要投資。所以我們 - 我們打算這樣做，優先考慮增長，更多地踏上街頭，投資技術等，以確保我們處於有利位置，可以利用我們在那裡看到的這種增長。

So we still think 30%, we think, from a planning standpoint, we'll give you more details around perhaps a better number when we get to February next year. But we still think at this juncture, you have these countervailing forces. Tom mentioned a number of them as well around whether it's entrant or pension or the like. And so we still think all in 30% incremental's still the right way to position kind of your models for now. And we'll update that as we know more next year.

所以我們仍然認為 30%，我們認為，從計劃的角度來看，當我們到明年 2 月時，我們會為您提供更多細節，也許是一個更好的數字。但我們仍然認為，在這個關頭，你有這些反制力量。湯姆也提到了其中一些，無論是新人還是養老金等。因此，我們仍然認為目前所有 30% 增量仍然是定位模型的正確方法。我們將在明年了解更多信息時對其進行更新。

Really appreciate all that color. And then just a quick follow-up on the -- on the reshoring announcements and the $1.3 trillion of planned investments that you guys highlighted, matches a lot of the data that we've aggregated as well. Can you talk about how much of this is already coming through? Clearly, manufacturing construction has been very, very strong. And then also, what kind of visibility does this provide? These are very large, generally kind of slow-moving projects.

真的很欣賞所有的顏色。然後只是對你們強調的回流公告和 1.3 萬億美元的計劃投資的快速跟進，與我們匯總的許多數據相匹配。你能談談其中有多少已經通過了嗎？顯然，製造業建設一直非常非常強大。然後，這提供了什麼樣的可見性？這些都是非常大的，通常是一種緩慢的項目。

Yes. No, I think to your point, and you hit on kind of we think is an important one where, no, we've not really seen today these $1.3 trillion of announcements. We've not seen today the impact of most of this or hardly any of this in our order book at this point.

是的。不，我認為就你的觀點而言，你提到了我們認為很重要的一種，不，我們今天還沒有真正看到這些 1.3 萬億美元的公告。目前，我們還沒有在我們的訂單簿中看到其中大部分或幾乎沒有任何影響的影響。

In some cases, it could be in the negotiation pipeline, which Tom indicated is up dramatically. But it's not reflected today in our order book and certainly not reflected in our sales. And so just another one of these things that gives us a lot of confidence around the future growth rate of our electrical business.

在某些情況下，它可能正在談判中，Tom 表示這正在急劇上升。但它今天沒有反映在我們的訂單中，當然也沒有反映在我們的銷售中。因此，這只是其中之一，讓我們對電氣業務的未來增長率充滿信心。

Next, we'll go to Joe O'Dea with Wells Fargo.

接下來，我們將與富國銀行一起前往 Joe O'Dea。

I wanted to circle back to the negotiation pipeline in the U.S. and talking about that kind of more than doubling and just a little bit more detail on kind of what you used to kind of determine or what qualifies as a major project. And then typically, what you see from the time line that goes from negotiation to order and then the timeline from sort of order to revenue generation.

我想回到美國的談判管道，並談論這種不止一倍，只是更詳細地說明你過去決定什麼或什麼有資格成為一個重大項目。然後通常是從談判到訂單的時間線，然後是從訂單到創收的時間線。

Yes. I'd say the negotiation pipeline today, I'd say it's -- to your point, it's generally a large project. There's a lot of stuff that's going on today that's out in the distribution channel that we don't necessarily have great visibility to. But we do track large projects where we tend to be involved in specifying the application. And so these projects, we have historically tracked them and have great visibility to them. And as we mentioned, those numbers are going up dramatically.

是的。我會說今天的談判管道，我會說它 - 就你的觀點而言，它通常是一個大型項目。今天有很多事情發生在分銷渠道中，我們不一定有很好的知名度。但我們確實會跟踪我們傾向於參與指定應用程序的大型項目。所以這些項目，我們一直在跟踪它們，並且對它們有很大的了解。正如我們所提到的，這些數字正在急劇上升。

And I'd say from -- in the cycle between a negotiation and order, I mean it can vary. I mean it can be on the short end, 90 days. It can be 6 months. It varies depending upon the project. And from an order to a sale, it can -- once again, it can be as short as 90 days. It can be 18 months. It varies quite widely depending upon the project that you're actually supporting.

我想說的是——在談判和命令之間的循環中，我的意思是它可能會有所不同。我的意思是它可以是短期的，90 天。可以是 6 個月。它因項目而異。從訂單到銷售，它可以——再一次，它可以短至 90 天。可以是 18 個月。根據您實際支持的項目，它變化很大。

Got it. And then on the distribution side of things. Could you just talk about the mix of product and distribution that might be more kind of commoditized or off the shelf versus the mix that's more spec-ed in? And then anything that you could be seeing in terms of differing sort of inventory management trends, whether some of that more off the shelf if you're seeing inventories come down there at all as opposed to what would be more spec-ed.

知道了。然後在分配方面。您能否談談產品和分銷的組合，可能更商品化或現成的組合與更規範化的組合？然後你可能會看到任何關於不同種類的庫存管理趨勢的東西，如果你看到庫存完全下降，而不是更規範化的，那麼其中一些是現成的。

Yes, I'd say, to answer maybe the second part of your question, today, we don't really have almost any part of the business today where our distributors are saying we have more inventory than we need or want. And I think that's a reflection of the broad-based strength that we talked about in our end markets.

是的，我想說，也許是為了回答你問題的第二部分，今天，我們幾乎沒有業務的任何部分，我們的分銷商說我們的庫存比我們需要或想要的多。我認為這反映了我們在終端市場上談到的廣泛實力。

So some markets are growing faster than others. All of the markets are growing. And for the most part, we have distributor challenges around supporting their demand almost across the board today.

因此，一些市場的增長速度快於其他市場。所有的市場都在增長。在大多數情況下，我們在今天幾乎全面支持他們的需求方面遇到了分銷商挑戰。

To your point around commoditization, we don't really think -- we don't really sell anything that I would call a true commodity. If you think about in the electrical space specifically or even in our industrial businesses, most of what we do is highly specified. And you go from an application engineering to designing a particular solution to getting an order, you don't tend to find that you can trade stuff once you win a job or you win a project. You tend to deliver that project because it really is engineered into the solution.

就您關於商品化的觀點而言，我們真的不認為 - 我們並沒有真正出售任何我稱之為真正商品的東西。如果您特別考慮電氣領域，甚至是我們的工業業務，我們所做的大部分工作都是高度指定的。從應用工程到設計特定解決方案再到獲得訂單，你不會發現一旦贏得工作或贏得項目就可以交易東西。您傾向於交付該項目，因為它確實被設計到解決方案中。

If you think about what we're doing in the electrical business, essentially, we're protecting assets and people. And if our stuff doesn't work, I mean really bad things happen. And so what we really think that we sell, we sell a highly engineered solution, and not much of which is what I'd call commodity. And on the commodity side, you may have some wiring devices or the like that could be sold through our distributors, or in some case, could be sold through one of the big box retailers. But for the most part, most of what we do in our businesses are highly engineered and highly specified.

如果您考慮一下我們在電氣業務中所做的事情，本質上，我們是在保護資產和人員。如果我們的東西不起作用，我的意思是真的很糟糕的事情發生了。所以我們真正認為我們銷售的東西，我們銷售的是一個高度工程化的解決方案，其中沒有多少是我所說的商品。在商品方面，您可能有一些可以通過我們的分銷商銷售的接線設備或類似設備，或者在某些情況下，可以通過大型零售商之一銷售。但在大多數情況下，我們在業務中所做的大部分工作都是高度設計和高度指定的。

And we'll go to David Raso with Evercore ISI.

我們將與 Evercore ISI 一起前往 David Raso。

In your mild recession scenario for next year, in Europe, do you see in that scenario where Europe remains in positive growth throughout the year? Obviously, the secular trends, I think, in North America for a variety of reasons, there's obviously more credibility and the ability to outgrow the market that much outgrow a recession scenario. But do you see the same dynamic in Europe? And again, does it stay positive in your base case throughout the year?

在您明年的溫和衰退情景中，在歐洲，您是否認為歐洲全年保持正增長？顯然，我認為，由於各種原因，北美的長期趨勢顯然更有可信度和超越市場的能力，遠遠超過衰退情景。但是你在歐洲看到同樣的動態嗎？再一次，它在你的基本情況下全年保持積極嗎？

Yes. I mean it's a great question, Dave, and it's one that we obviously haven't fully modeled out. Clearly, the range of possibilities around what happens in Europe is much wider than perhaps any other region of the world given what's happening today in the Ukraine, given the uncertainty around energy and energy resilience. And so there's a wide range of possibilities in Europe that you could certainly imagine a scenario where the orders that we're currently seeing, orders continue to be hold up well. We are also building backlog and have built backlog in Europe, but that could change quickly depending upon whether or not you have gas flowing into Germany.

是的。我的意思是這是一個很好的問題，戴夫，而且我們顯然還沒有完全建模出來。顯然，鑑於能源和能源彈性的不確定性，考慮到烏克蘭今天正在發生的事情，圍繞歐洲發生的事情的可能性範圍可能比世界上任何其他地區都要廣泛。因此，在歐洲存在廣泛的可能性，您當然可以想像我們目前看到的訂單繼續保持良好的情況。我們還在積壓並在歐洲建立了積壓，但這可能會迅速改變，具體取決於您是否有天然氣流入德國。

And so I think the range of possibilities in Europe are quite wide, which is one of the reasons why I said that while we're anticipating really good growth across the board, but we're going to be ready. And we will take a regional view. And if we need to flex in Europe because they end up dealing with a more severe downturn than we're anticipating right now and more severe than the rest of the world, we have a plan ready to deal with a scenario where markets fall perhaps more than we anticipated.

所以我認為歐洲的可能性範圍很廣，這就是為什麼我說雖然我們預計全面增長非常好，但我們會做好準備的原因之一。我們將採取區域觀點。如果我們需要在歐洲進行調整，因為他們最終面臨的經濟衰退比我們現在預期的更嚴重，而且比世界其他地區更嚴重，我們已經準備好應對市場下跌可能更多的情況超出我們的預期。

Would you -- I'm sorry, go ahead.

你會 - 對不起，繼續。

Yes, I was just going to add. I think it's important to note that in the quarter, we did see order growth in Europe. And in some of the end markets, fairly strong, for example, in commercial and institution. So we do see some slowing, but we're still seeing growth there.

是的，我只是要補充。我認為值得注意的是，在本季度，我們確實看到了歐洲的訂單增長。在一些終端市場，例如在商業和機構方面相當強大。所以我們確實看到了一些放緩，但我們仍然看到那裡的增長。

Well, you answered 1 of my 2 follow-ups there in a sense of you're saying orders are so positive in Electrical Global in Europe in the quarter. Any -- if you could with us any sense of how large the backlog is in Europe Electrical on a year-over-year basis?

好吧，你回答了我的 2 次跟進中的 1 次，因為你說本季度歐洲電氣全球的訂單非常積極。任何——如果你能和我們一起了解歐洲電氣的積壓量同比有多大？

I mean I don't have that number -- I believe our backlog on a rolling 12-month basis in Europe is up 27%. I think the numbers I have. So the backlog is still...

我的意思是我沒有這個數字——我相信我們在歐洲的 12 個月滾動積壓增加了 27%。我想我有的數字。所以積壓還是...

27% is what I have as well.

我也有 27%。

Okay. So 27%, the backlog in Europe.

好的。所以 27%，歐洲的積壓。

Yes. Global is up 22% overall, yes.

是的。是的，全球總體增長了 22%。

Okay. So it's actually more than the global number. Europe is even higher.

好的。所以它實際上超過了全球數字。歐洲甚至更高。

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

I think we're just trying to figure out how much coverage do you have if you can avoid cancellations into '23 in Europe, in particular, to let Electrical Americas and Aerospace kind of drive the...

我想我們只是想弄清楚如果你能避免在歐洲取消到 23 年，那麼你有多少覆蓋範圍，特別是讓美國電氣和航空航天推動……

And as you can imagine for us, I mean, Europe, as a percentage of our revenue, I mean they're relatively smaller. So Europe today would account for, what, roughly 9%, 10% of the company sales.

正如你可以想像的那樣，我的意思是，歐洲占我們收入的百分比，我的意思是它們相對較小。所以今天的歐洲將占公司銷售額的大約 9% 到 10%。

And so if you think about -- yes, we can certainly absorb a bit of a slowdown in Europe and not really have an outsized impact on the overall company's performance given its relative share within the organization in our mix.

因此，如果您考慮一下 - 是的，我們當然可以吸收歐洲的一些放緩，並且鑑於其在我們組織中的相對份額，我們當然不會對整體公司的業績產生巨大影響。

And next, we'll go to Brett Linzey with Mizuho Americas.

接下來，我們將和瑞穗美洲一起去布雷特林澤。

A lot of ground covered. I appreciate the additional thoughts on '23 markets. I guess if I work through the weighting of those arrows, I get something kind of mid-single-digit, 5% to 6% range for market growth. But then I imagine you have some carryover price and perhaps some outgrowth. So just curious how you would maybe dimension those other pieces.

覆蓋了很多地面。我很欣賞關於 '23 市場的額外想法。我想如果我通過這些箭頭的權重工作，我會得到一些中等個位數，5% 到 6% 的市場增長范圍。但是我想你有一些結轉價格，也許還有一些結果。所以只是好奇你會如何測量其他部分。

I think I'd say it's early for us to kind of give you any insight. We'll do that in February. But clearly, there's going to be carryover price. I mean you all know that price is generally in the market data as well, by the way. And so when you think about a market index, there is some price built into that as well. You can debate how much is built in. Is it more or less than what you're assuming? But there is price built into that data. But it's just early at this point for us to give you any particular company-related growth numbers. I mean markets are going to be good. We would expect generally to do better than markets. And so that would be a fair assumption. But it's just early to give you any more detail than that at this point.

我想我會說我們現在給你任何見解還為時過早。我們將在二月份這樣做。但很明顯，會有結轉價格。順便說一句，我的意思是你們都知道價格通常也在市場數據中。因此，當您考慮市場指數時，其中也包含一些價格。您可以辯論內置了多少。它比您假設的多還是少？但是該數據中包含價格。但現在我們為您提供任何與公司相關的特定增長數據還為時過早。我的意思是市場會很好。我們預計總體上會比市場表現更好。所以這將是一個公平的假設。但現在給你提供比這更多的細節還為時過早。

Yes. No, understood. And just 1 more on the backlog. Obviously, very robust, but just curious if you could share some color on the margin profile of the orders being booked. It looks like relative to what's being shipped, I would expect there would be some favorabilities in material prices have come off highs. But anything you can share in terms of mix or price costs there?

是的。不，明白了。積壓的只有 1 個。顯然，非常強大，但只是好奇您是否可以在預訂訂單的保證金資料上分享一些顏色。看起來相對於正在發貨的東西，我預計材料價格會從高位回落。但是，您可以在那里分享混合或價格成本方面的任何東西嗎？

I'd say that -- and as you know, we've talked about on prior calls, I'd say that we took some pretty unconventional steps early on, and in many cases, will not reprice the backlog. So I would say today that our backlog today and the pricing and the margin on the backlog is not terribly different than kind of the way the business is performing today, the underlying profitability of the business today.

我會這麼說 - 正如你所知，我們已經在之前的電話會議上討論過，我會說我們在早期採取了一些非常非常規的步驟，並且在許多情況下不會重新定價積壓。因此，我今天要說的是，我們今天的積壓訂單以及積壓訂單的定價和利潤率與今天的業務表現方式以及今天的業務潛在盈利能力並沒有太大的不同。

Certainly, there's a question around the future direction of commodity prices and whether or not we see more or less inflation and deflation that can change it. But the profitability in the backlog, I would argue is it's not terribly different today than what we're seeing in our business.

當然，關於商品價格的未來走向以及我們是否會看到或多或少的通脹和通貨緊縮可以改變它是一個問題。但是，我認為積壓的盈利能力與我們今天在業務中看到的情況並沒有太大的不同。

And we'll go to Phil Buller with Berenberg.

我們將和貝倫伯格一起去菲爾布勒。

Just one from me, please. I appreciate you don't break out price. But do you feel as though you're sort of approaching a ceiling anywhere on price. You've clearly explained and are convicted about the demand side, outstripping supply in most areas, which we can see pretty clearly in the order figures. But are there any areas where you're now seeing price elasticity kicking back in? Or have you managed to increase the price intra quarter in a pretty uniform manner across the different businesses?

請給我一份。我很感激你不打破價格。但是，您是否覺得自己在價格上的任何地方都接近了一個上限。您已經清楚地解釋了需求方面的問題，並且在大多數地區都超過了供應，這在訂單數據中我們可以很清楚地看到。但是，您現在在哪些領域看到價格彈性回升？或者您是否設法在不同業務中以非常統一的方式提高了季度內的價格？

No, I appreciate the question. The first thing I'll tell you is that if you think about our industries and over a long period of time, pricing tends to be sticky in this industry. Prices -- once you get a price increase, they typically -- you hold it. I think one of the big advantages we have is because it goes through distribution, price is obviously good for distributors.

不，我很欣賞這個問題。我要告訴你的第一件事是，如果你考慮我們的行業並且在很長一段時間內，定價往往在這個行業中具有粘性。價格——一旦你得到價格上漲，他們通常——你持有它。我認為我們擁有的一大優勢是因為它通過分銷，價格顯然對分銷商有利。

But more broadly than it, I'd say that we really, today, are not seeing our overall costs come down either because -- on the one hand, some of the major commodities that we buy have come off to some of the peak levels. But what we're really seeing today in the business is we're seeing, because of supply and demand, not just our supply and demand, but with our suppliers, we're seeing labor-related inflation.

但更廣泛地說，我想說的是，我們今天確實沒有看到我們的總體成本下降，因為 - 一方面，我們購買的一些主要商品已經達到了一些峰值水平.但我們今天在業務中真正看到的是，由於供求關係，不僅是我們的供求關係，還有我們的供應商，我們看到了與勞動力相關的通貨膨脹。

And so we're not today really in an environment where we're seeing deflation necessarily in our costs either on an all-in basis. But I think the bigger message is price does tend to be sticky. The idea of a ceiling -- I think a ceiling is really a reflection of what happens to your input costs. And at this point, we do think that the worst is behind us in terms of inflation in aggregate. We think labor will continue to see inflation and perhaps at an accelerated pace. That will probably offset some of the deflation that we're seeing on some of the major commodity inputs that we have. But in aggregate, we don't anticipate to go into a deflationary cycle.

因此，我們今天並沒有真正處於這樣一個環境中，即我們的成本必然會出現通貨緊縮，無論是在全押的基礎上。但我認為更大的信息是價格確實往往具有粘性。上限的想法——我認為上限實際上反映了您的投入成本發生的情況。在這一點上，我們確實認為就總體通脹而言，最壞的情況已經過去。我們認為勞動力將繼續看到通脹，而且可能會加速。這可能會抵消我們在我們擁有的一些主要商品投入上看到的一些通貨緊縮。但總的來說，我們預計不會進入通縮週期。

And with that, no further questions in queue. I'll turn it back to the company.

有了這個，隊列中沒有更多的問題。我會把它還給公司。

Thanks, guys. We have reached the end of the call, and we do appreciate everybody's questions. As always, Chip and myself will be available for answer any follow-up questions. Thank you for joining us. Have a great day.

多謝你們。我們已經結束了通話，我們非常感謝大家提出的問題。與往常一樣，Chip 和我本人將可以回答任何後續問題。感謝您加入我們。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。